Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are playing at the single slowest pace of any team in basketball in conference play. They are using 21.7 seconds in an average possession. That is running the shot clock down to 8.3 seconds on average, which is stall ball at its best. 

Bradley plays at an average pace, but the Braves are clearly better on defense than offense. Bradley has already played a couple very low scoring games this year and Evansville is the slowest paced team they have played.

I wouldn't expect transition points in this one. Both teams run the clock and look for a jumper. This is a low total, but it is low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs want to play very fast this year. They have been using a full court press to try to create scoring opportunities in transition. UNC Greensboro also uses pressure defense. Both of these teams foul a lot and their games can end up adding up quickly late in the game because of the trips to the stripe.

They just played a couple days ago and the final total was 150. Samford was 5/26 from 3 in that game. Both teams shot below 65% from the free throw line as well. That game should have been near 160 instead of 150.

With a total slightly lower here, I'll take the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears are healthy once again. This Mercer offense is going to do some major damage with Alvarez and Cummings in the backcourt. This is an excellent offensive team.

Western Carolina has a star on offense in Faulkner. The Catamounts have been out of action lately, but they will be one of the better offenses and one of the worse defenses in this conference. 

Look for a fast pace and the offenses to have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State 57-45 win over San Diego State on Thursday night was very impressive. Utah State doesn't have Merrill this year and that really hurts their offense. Their defense is even better this year though. 

San Diego State lost their key contributors on offense from last year as well, but they are even better on defense also.

This game is totaled right about where the first one was, and I think that is too high. Open looks will be very tough to come by in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders had 5 players out due to COVID and contract tracing issues last weekend. Their coach said this week that at least a couple of those guys will be out again this weekend. 

MTSU had been playing very fast earlier in the season, but they slowed things down drastically without their star players last weekend. They played two very low scoring games (123 and 123 points) against a very fast paced FIU team that usually piles up the points. Now, MTSU takes on a Southern Miss team that might be the best under team in Conference USA. 

Southern Miss plays at an extremely slow pace and they don't have much of an identity on offense. The Golden Eagles are improved on defense as are the Blue Raiders this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had the Louisiana under last game against Little Rock and that was the right side, but it lost due to overtime. Louisiana is far worse on offense than they have been in most of their recent seasons. They are also far better on defense thanks to a couple big shot blockers in the middle of the lane. While Louisiana does still play fast, this is a team that has had their totals posted too high. Only one of their games against a Division One opponent has gone over this posted total in regulation.

UT Arlington has been up and down in terms of pace. This could be a fast paced game. Still, I'm not sure the efficiency on offense will be there. Arlington is shorthanded right now and that plays a role in this wager as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been bet down to a point where I have to back the over. South Alabama is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They don't play particularly fast, but many of their games still end up getting to a high number. 

Appalachian State's offense has improved in their second year under good offensive minded coach Dustin Kerns. 

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 152 and 148 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Monmouth played fast last year, but they are playing at a whole different level this season. The Hawks are pushing the ball in transition as fast as they ever have. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this season. 

Quinnipiac has shown that they typically play to the pace of their opponent. They played slow games against Manhattan, but played very fast against Fairleigh Dickinson and New Hampshire. 

The two meetings between these two last year both sailed over this total finishing at 154 and 167 points. 

I see the pace being very quick here. If we see a tempo of 75 possessions, the two teams don't even have to average 1 point per possession to get us to this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Washington shot the ball far over their season averages in their last game against California. I don't expect them to shoot the ball well against this USC defense.

Washington shoots 26.7% from three point range on the season. The Huskies like to get inside and try to get to the rim. That won't be easy against a USC team that ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shot percentage. USC's Evan Mobley is a difference maker on the interior and he should give Washington's offense a ton of trouble here.

The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year. USC had a terrible time with the Washington zone defense last season. They scored 40 points in the first meeting against Washington and only 62 in the second meeting.

This total is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are one of my favorite teams to take an over with. Portland State presses all game long and forces the tempo. They are going to put the opposition on the free throw line a bunch of times. Montana State shot free throws at 74% last year and they are at 74% again so far this year. They should take advantage of these opportunities.

Portland State's offense has been bad so far this year, but they have played some solid defenses. The Portland State defense has been even worse, and they haven't faced many teams who can shoot the ball well at all. Montana State is a solid offensive team.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have both had six games already this year that have stayed under this total in regulation. That's a really high number for this early in the season with a total set this low. Both teams are more than capable of playing in very low scoring contests.

Purdue has drastically slowed their pace in recent weeks. They played a 66-58 final against a fast paced Illinois team. They then won 55-54 against a relatively fast paced Michigan State team. 

Indiana is much better defensively than they were a year ago. They played faster early this year, but they have settled back into a pace slightly slower than last year in conference play.

I think this is a tight low scoring contest where the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Marquette played at a fast pace last year (60th in the country). They have slowed down drastically this season (249th in tempo in the country). Howard isn't here getting to the line all the time and creating for himself and his teammates. This Marquette team is a little better on defense and a little worse on offense as well.

Providence has shot the ball much better than expected so far this year. The Friars are improved on offense, but if we take a look at how many long two point jumpers and contested 3's they have made this season, it certainly appears they are due for some regression on the offensive end. The Friars defense can mix and match man and zone defenses to frustrate their opposition.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons are the favorites in the MAC for good reason. Justin Turner is a star and this Bowling Green offense is going to score a lot of points this year. They have failed to reach 83 points in only one of their MAC games so far this season. Bowling Green forces the tempo, and they'll try to get out in transition often in this game.

Ball State would likely prefer to slow things down a bit, but they are likely to be playing from behind in this one. The Cardinals lost their top two defenders from a year ago, and this is a team that can be scored on now. Ball State has allowed 78 and 86 points in their last two contests. 

Look for Bowling Green to put pressure on the Ball State defense early on and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't a team I'm anxious to bet an under with, but I think this number is a little too high.

The Big Ten is notorious for being a great under conference when totals are set very high. Iowa and Minnesota just played a game recently which went to 83-83 after regulation (just over this total), and that was a game where both teams shot lights out and went to the line a combined 67 times. 

Minnesota has slowed their pace down some in recent contests, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try to slow down some here. 

Iowa is an amazing offense, but they are due for a little regression on offense. The Hawkeyes are averaging 1.18 points per possession in the Big Ten. They averaged 1.09 points per possession in league play last year.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley is without a couple key players due to COVID. They drastically slowed the pace of the game down yesterday and it finished at 127 points total. I don't know why they would speed things up again when it worked out well for them last night.

The two meetings between these two last year finished at 139 points and 126 points. 

I look for another slower paced game with this total being quite a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a completely different team this year. Theo Akwuba is a tremendous shot blocker down low and he has made this defense light years better than it was a year ago. 

These two teams played last night and it was a slower paced game that finished at 130 points. Little Rock is the team that wants to slow things down and they likely will here too. Louisiana has that underrated defense and I think their games continue to be lined too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* FIU/MTSU over was a play of mine yesterday which lost. MTSU had four guys out due to contract tracing for COVID and injuries. At least three of those guys including their point guard are expected out today per an MTSU beat writer. 

MTSU stalled in a big way last night. This was a team who averaged shooting the ball within 16 seconds of getting possession. Last night, they used three seconds per possession more. Without their star guards they clearly decided to slow things down. I don't think that changes here.

Both of these teams normally play fast, but both turn it over a lot and aren't very efficient on offense.

Take the under with MTSU being shorthanded.

*4 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are playing shorthanded, and they have decided to play at an extremely slow pace. They are using 20.0 seconds of the shot clock on average so far this year in Big East play. That's one of the slowest paces you will see anywhere. 

UConn has slowed their pace down drastically this year because they have all kinds of height and would rather be a halfcourt team. The Huskies are great on the defensive end. They contest everything in the paint very well. You'll have to beat this team from the outside. Butler hasn't been a good outside shooting team this season.

I see this one being played at a pace of about 61 possessions. Both teams scoring  around 1.04 or 1.05 points per possession (higher than you would expect with two good defenses) still would keep this under the total. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met twice last year and the final totals were 114 and 121 points. 

Siena just played its first two games of the season against Monmouth who plays at the fastest pace of any team in the MAAC. The Saints had higher scoring games than they normally will because of their opponent.

Fairfield is a good defensive team who really struggles on offense and slows the tempo down as much as anyone in the MAAC. The Stags want this to be a lower scoring contest.

I think this is an overreaction to Siena's first two games. My number here is 125.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies played a very high scoring game against Stanford in their last contest. Stanford got a big lead and Washington had to press and run in the second half. There were 107 points scored in that second half with all the fouls and pressing. That has inflated this line.

Washington is still a terrible offensive team. The Huskies take a lot of low percentage shots on a consistent basis. The Huskies are good on defense with their matchup zone. They have one weakness and that is on the defensive glass. Cal is a team that is very weak on the offensive boards.

Cal's Matt Bradley missed last game with an injury and he is considered a game time decision here. Bradley is the key to this offense. If he plays he'll be less than 100 percent. 

Cal plays at a very slow pace. The Bears don't want to get in a track meet here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This game played to a final total of 146 points last night and that was with a combined 22 free throws in the game.

These two teams have proven that they play fast against one another. Their last three meetings have all gone over this total.

I have this number at 148 so I have value here on the high side.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen are much better on offense this year. Cam Davis is one of the best players in the Patriot League. Navy's defense is still no better than average. 

Lehigh typically likes to run under Brett Reed. They played a couple high scoring contests in their first two games. Lehigh is one of the weakest defenses in the conference.

Three of the last four games between these two teams have gone over this total. Lehigh has been able to dictate the tempo in general against Navy. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU has continued to play very fast this year. MTSU has looked great defensively so far this year, but I think that is largely due to the competition they have played this season. MTSU has played the 325th toughest slate of offenses so far this year according to KenPom (very weak offenses). 

FIU is always a really fast paced team under Coach Ballard and that is the case again this year. They are much more efficient on offense than they have been in some seasons recently. They are also much weaker on defense since they lost their star shot blocker in the middle (Osaghae). 

Look for a lot of transition shots here from both teams. With even decent shooting this one should get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders and Youngstown State Penguins put up 151 and 158 points last year in their two meetings. Wright State is really pushing the pace, and they are the favorite here and the more talented team.

Youngstown State is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Penguins have allowed 87, 81, 77, and 79 points in their last four contests. They are a good offense though. Youngstown State gets a lot of offensive rebounds and doesn't turn the ball over, and that helps make them a very efficient offense. 

Last year in the first meeting between these two teams there were 32 offensive rebounds. There should be a lot in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met on Thursday and they'll play the second game of their back to back here on Friday afternoon. 

Yesterday's game finished 78-75 and was played at a blistering pace of 84 possessions. That is one of the fastest paced games you will see. 

Long Island's coach Derek Kellogg said in the offseason that he really wanted to up the tempo even more this season, and they have done just that so far this year. Long Island's average possession length was 16.1 seconds last year, and so far this year it is an extremely quick 14.1 seconds. 

St. Francis is one of the three or four fastest paced teams in the conference as well. 

Yesterday's game got to 153 points with some really bad shooting numbers. If the shooting numbers normalize this game has a chance to be quite a bit higher. There were very few free throws in the first game as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely bet a side or total and then switch and bet the other side in their next game, but I'll make an exception here. 

We had a nice 2-1 day on Thursday, but the one loss was the Sacred Heart/Merrimack under. It was never close. While Merrimack was an under machine last year, they played much much faster in the Thursday contest.

As I went back through the stats for that Thursday game, Merrimack really got out into transition at every opportunity. There was a lot of turnover at Merrimack in the offseason and it appears Coach Gallo has decided to get this team running more this season. 

Sacred Heart is weaker on defense this year than they were a year ago. They are going to be one of the worst teams defensively in this conference.

Based on the tempo of game one, this total is just too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky has been the single best "over" conference in college basketball. There is very little defense put up by most teams in the Big Sky Conference, at least by the weaker teams in the conference. 

Low totaled games in this conference have been very good over bets in the past decade. 

Northern Arizona and Idaho State are both better on offense than they are on defense. These two teams met twice in the regular season last year and they scored 138 and 160 points in regulation in those two contests.

This is a very low total for a game with two bad defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors played 18 games in the conference last year. Only two of those games went over this posted total. Only one of them went over this total in regulation. Merrimack uses a zone press that slows the game down drastically. Joe Gallo is a tremendous defensive coach. 

I don't expect Sacred Heart to be able to figure this defense out. Sacred Heart was a solid offense last year, but they lost most of their key contributors. Sacred Heart scored 57 points in both meetings against Merrimack last year. I don't see how we could expect them to score very many here with a far weaker offensive team.

Sacred Heart's defense isn't very good, but Merrimack's offense is very in efficient. They lack guys who can create their own shot and get quality looks.

This should be a sloppy game and I expect it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start time. Mt. St. Mary's has played at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. This is a team that looks to win low scoring games and control the pace.

Last year, the two meetings between these two teams finished at 137 points and 98 points. This one likely falls in between those two results.

St. Francis has had some very fast paced games so far this year, but that is primarily because of who they have played (Bryant twice for example). 

The early start is a positive as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing a lot different without Markus Howard. Marquette is much slower paced team, and they are also less efficient on offense because they have gotten to the line a little less. 

UConn is one of the best defensive teams in this conference. The Huskies have a lot of length on the inside and will contest everything near the hoop. They allowed only 58 to USC. They allowed only 66 in regulation against Creighton. They allowed only 61 points against DePaul. 

I expect a slow paced game and both teams to do a good job contesting shots. My projected total is several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down with some sharp money on the under coming in on Monday night. I would rate this as a 4 star play down to 139.5 and a 3 star play below that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys beat Fresno State 78-74 yesterday. Both teams shot the ball fairly well, but the game was played to 72 possessions- a very quick pace. 

Wyoming's games this year have been great to over bettors. The Cowboys have seen 144 points or more scored in every game this year. In fact, they have had 149 points or more in every game except for one. 

Fresno State is fouling a lot and the Wyoming team gets to the line a lot and shoots a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs beat Southern Illinois 73-55 yesterday. The pace was only 62 possessions and if anything the final score could have been a little bit lower than that 128 points. 

Southern Illinois is likely to try to slow down the tempo in this one. The Salukis don't want a shootout with Drake. Southern Illinois is due for regression on offense. They won't keep shooting 42% from 3 point range all season.

I think the oddsmakers didn't make a big enough adjustment here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 9 am local time. Montana is playing at a slower pace this year. The Grizzlies are without their star (Pridgett) from last year. Montana is struggling to get a "go to" guy on offense this year. They have endured some long scoring droughts this year.

Northern Colorado is without their star (Radebaugh) from last year as well. The Bears are very reliant on the 3 point shot, and they are up against a Montana team that is one of the best at defending beyond the arc.

The early start time is extreme. These kids certainly aren't used to playing a game tipping at 9 am, and through the years the few extremely early start times have trended toward the under with poor shooting numbers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ed DeChellis talked in the preseason about this Navy team being far more experienced and more capable of scoring on the offensive end. That has been true so far this year. Navy has scored 73 points or more in four of their five games (they have scored exactly 78 in three of their games). 

Bucknell likes to push the pace. The Bison were only 12/30 from 2 point range yesterday against Navy, and they averaged only 0.93 points per possession. I would expect a little better from this offense.

Navy does play slowly, but they aren't as slow as in previous seasons. They no longer rank as one of the very slowest teams in the country- rather they are just fairly slow. 

Looking at the types of shots that were taken and the pace, yesterday's game should have been higher than it was, and it still got to 147 points.

With a move down today, this line is several points below my projections.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams have a history of putting up points in a big way when they square off. 

Since Hamilton took over as the Eastern Kentucky coach and they started using a full court press, the 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 168 points, 162 points, and 178 points. 

Austin Peay has the scorers and ball handlers to beat this Eastern Kentucky press. Austin Peay is a weak team defensively.

Eastern Kentucky is very good at forcing the pace, and they have been able to do that against Austin Peay in recent matchups. 

Both teams have had some lower scoring games recently, which has given us a number that is several points too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Anytime you see a low total in a Big Sky Conference game you have to take a look at the over. After closer inspection, I will be playing the over here.

These two teams have gone over this total the last three times they have played each other. The lowest score in those games was 139 points. 

Northern Arizona is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Idaho isn't much better on that end. 

Each of the last three games between these teams has played to 69 possessions or more. Games with less than 1 point per possession are very rare in the Big Sky where nearly no one plays any defense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met on December 22nd and the final was 68-58 East Carolina. There were no large abnormalities as far as shooting percentages in that game.

Both of these teams are inefficient on the offensive end. Both of them scored between 0.93 and 0.94 points per possession in the conference last year. I expect similar numbers again this year.

Tulane's zone defense slows the game down. Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot and that should lead to a lot of empty possessions here. Some teams can take advantage of Tulane on the offensive glass, but East Carolina isn't a good offensive rebounding team.

At 67 possessions projected here and 0.96 and 0.95 points per possession we get a score projection of about 64-63.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies didn't play as fast in the non-conference slate as they typically do. Oakland has picked up their pace quite a bit of late though, and in the Horizon League I expect this Oakland team to move quickly.

Oakland has scored 72 points or more in six straight contests. They finally get a home game here, and they should be able to score quite a few here.

The Wright State Raiders are using only 14.8 seconds on an average offensive possession in their four games in the Horizon League thus far. Wright State wants to push the pace, and Oakland's very weak defense isn't likely to be able to slow them down. 

The two meetings between these teams last year finished at 165 and 154 points. Look for another high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been a very good defensive team for the last several seasons. They like to slow the pace down. 

Louisiana has been a poor defensive team in recent seasons, and they love to speed the pace of game up in a big way.

It is always a pace war when these two teams meet. How have the games gone? The last six games between these two teams have finished at 137 points or lower.

Louisiana has the best defense they have had in many years. Theo Akwuba is a shot blocking a machine in the paint. Texas State is a team that doesn't shoot many 3's, and I think Akwuba's presence in the paint is going to make things difficult on Texas State.

Texas State has played 8 games this year, and none of them have finished higher than 138 points. 

With an improved Louisiana defense and two offenses that are weaker than in recent years, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have developed an identity of being very tough on defense under Coach Hurley. This team doesn't let the opposition into the lane easily, and when they do get in the lane the opposition has a lot of height to go against in the UConn frontcourt.

The DePaul Blue Demons are better on defense than offense. This is a team that likes to play fast, but they turn the ball over a lot. That should be a problem against UConn. DePaul doesn't have many good outside shooters, and UConn's length inside should bother them.

UConn's offense is very inconsistent. They don't have many shooters and they rely heavily on offensive rebounding to score. 

UConn kept USC and even Creighton to very low scoring games. I think this game is totaled too high based on DePaul scoring a lot on weaker defenses in their first two games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets play at an above average pace. They have proven over the last couple years that they are happy to play at a very fast pace when their opponent pushes the issue. 

Samford ranks 8th in the country in average possession length. This team is absolutely flying this season. Bucky McMillan spoke in the postseason about how fast he wanted the team to play, and they are doing just that. 

Last year, VMI and Samford played three times. Those games had 73, 77, and 77 possessions. The final totals in those games were 153, 162, and 174 points. 

Samford is playing faster than they did a year ago. Samford is fouling at an extremely high rate because they are using full court pressure. VMI is shooting better than 80% from the free throw line so far this year. 

I think this game plays to a pace of 77 or 78 possessions. That would require poor shooting to not get over the total.

I think both teams score a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think this total is very inflated. USC Upstate played Winthrop twice earlier this year, and Winthrop ranks first in the nation in tempo and they are the best offense in the Big South. Winthrop put up huge numbers against them, but no one else in the Big South can match Winthrop in that regard. 

High Point has played in several pretty high scoring games this year, but Tubby Smith clearly prefers a slower pace. High Point is likely to slow things down and get back to their defensive roots in conference play.

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final scores in those games were 70-62 (132), 62-54 (116), and 69-59 (128). None of these games even sniffed this posted total. While both teams may be a bit better on offense this year, there is no way a reasonable adjustment would be all the way to 150.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston's defense is among the very best defenses in the country. Kelvin Sampson has really made the main theme of this Houston basketball program to be taking care of the basketball and winning with defense and toughness. Houston is playing even slower than they have the last two seasons this year, and they still rank sixth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Tulsa is a top 50 defense or so on an annual basis. Frank Haith's teams often struggle on the offensive end though. They'll likely mix in some zone and keep things at a slow pace here against Houston.

Last year's meetings between these two finished at 124 points and 119 points. I expect something similar here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Binghamton has seen one of their games go over this total in regulation this year and that was 144 points. Yesterday's game between these two finished at 141 points and that was with both teams shooting the ball well from long range and there was also a little fouling at the end of the contest.

I had this one projected at 137.5 so I have some room to the under. This is also an early start which in general has been helpful to the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and New Hampshire Wildcats have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. The last six meetings between these two have totaled the following amount of points: 121, 131, 113, 120, 113, and 130 (in overtime). All six of these games have stayed under this total by more than one possession. 

Hartford consistently slows the pace of the game down. New Hampshire's tempo looks quick on the season, but that is skewed because they played a Bryant team that is playing faster than anyone else in the country. 

Neither of these teams are good shooting the basketball. I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos beat the New Mexico Lobos 77-53 on Monday. I had the under in that one, and I will be on the under again here. 

Boise State's defense is much improved this year. The Broncos are going to be a tough team in the Mountain West this year. Boise State is 33rd in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. They have done a solid job against both BYU and Houston in big games earlier this year.

New Mexico is going to struggle to score this year. The Lobos lost their top few options offensively, and this is a team that really relies on second chance points. Boise State is an excellent defensive rebounding team and that makes them a tough matchup for this limited New Mexico offense.

New Mexico has slowed their pace down and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. Grand Canyon is working hard to slow the pace down this year. Bryce Drew's team is excellent on the defensive glass, and they defend well without fouling. 

Colorado just shot the ball really well last game against Washington, but Tad Boyle's team has a history of being inconsistent on the offensive end. The Buffaloes are very good on defense. They mix up their defenses and I think that will bother the Grand Canyon offense which doesn't have all that many great scoring options.

Early neutral site games have been great under bets in the long run, and I see some value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks rank 313th in offensive possession length (how many seconds per possession). Wagner has consistently worked hard to slow teams down this year. They were even able to slow a game down against Bryant (who ranks first in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Sacred Heart has a young team, and it appears Coach Anthony Latina has decided to slow down the tempo for his youngsters. They are 261st in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

These two teams just played on Monday and the final was 74-46. Wagner was 11/22 from 3 point range and Sacred Heart was 2/23 from 3 point range. 

I would expect this game to be higher scoring than the game on Monday, but the pace of the game on Monday was just 64 possessions. If we assume this will be 67 possessions, a good amount faster, my numbers still can't get very close to this total.

At 67 possessions these teams would both have to average 1.04 points per possession on average to get this total to 139.5. These are two very poor offensive teams. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Niagara is a team I've isolated as due for positive regression on offense. The Purple Eagles did shoot the ball much better in their last game against Fairfield. Niagara was really efficient offensively last year, and they return most of their main guys. There isn't any reason to expect anything other than a solid offense here yet again. 

On the other end of the floor, Niagara is really bad. They were 310th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have have played four games against bad offenses this year, and their defensive stats are skewed right now.

Albany shot the ball horribly in their last game, and their season stats are very poor offensively. The Great Danes put up 84 points in an 84-80 win over Niagara last year, and they should be able to score on Niagara quite a bit again this year.

This total is too low based on recent scores from these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos dialed back the tempo a bit so far this year. Paul Weir said the team fouled too much in exhibitions leading up to the season and he had to have the team turn it down to 80 instead of 100. New Mexico then played a much slower than expected pace against Rice in their only game against a Division One opponent so far this year.

New Mexico should be far worse on offense than they were a year ago. The Lobos will badly miss Vance Jackson, JaQuan Lyle, and Zane Martin. The Lobos have more length on the inside than they have had in some previous seasons, and their defense should at least be decent.

Boise State is far better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Broncos are one of the 15 tallest teams in the country. They are always excellent on the defensive boards which is a big deal here. 

There is a good chance Boise State wins this game by a decent margin, and if that is the case I see them slowing the pace down even more late in the game.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have played eight games, and only two of them have stayed under 156 points (153 and 136). Bryant has gotten to 169 points or more in four of their games this year. This team ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are going to push at every opportunity.

UMass is expected to be much better on offense with some of the newcomers they brought in. The Minutemen have been very good on offense through three games. They have scored 94, 75, and 85 points in those three games. Bryant is the fastest paced team UMass has played yet.

The tempo should clearly be here. There is always a chance of bad shooting, but this game is far off my projected number for this game.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* I took the over when these two teams met on Friday night and cashed. I'll be on the over again here. The number has been adjusted up some, so this is a slightly smaller play. Still, I think there is value on the over.

Portland State plays at an extremely fast pace every single year under Coach Peery. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. The Vikings have shot the ball horribly so far this year. Portland State is shooting 21% from long range. They have an effective field goal percentage of only 38.1% (324th in the country). They have still had two of their three games against division one opponents finish at 159 points or more. They should start shooting the ball better, but their defense has serious problems.

Weber State has a much improved offense this year. The Wildcats have many more scoring options than they had last year. Weber State torched this Portland State press on Friday, and they should get a lot of open looks again here. 

These two have a history of playing high scoring matchups against each other.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Radford Highlanders lost all kinds of offensive talent from last year. Radford is going to struggle to score on nearly everyone they play this year. This is a team though that does play defense, and they know how to slow the game down. Radford should play in a lot of low scoring contests this year.

Vanderbilt is much improved on defense. Saban Lee was good offensively for this team last year, but he was a weak defender. They have upgraded on the defensive end, but are somewhat weaker on offense. Vanderbilt has also drastically slowed their tempo this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears are playing more than two seconds per possession quicker than they did a year ago. Kansas State is better on offense and worse on defense than they were a year ago. Even before those two changes, Baylor and Kansas State played games last year that finished with 140 and 151 total points.

Baylor has scored at least 82 points in each of their first four games. Kansas State gave up 81 points at home to Fort Hays St in a loss. They also gave up 80 to Drake and 75 to Wisconsin Milwaukee. Baylor should be able to score a lot of points here.

Kansas State is 91st in effective field goal percentage offense this year. They were 270th last year. They will drop during the season, but they do appear to be better on offense this year.

This total is set as if it were a game played last year. These are two different teams this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins beat the Winthrop Eagles 80-73 at home last year. Both of these teams are playing significantly faster than they did a year ago. In fact, Winthrop is playing at the single fastest pace on offense of any team in the country so far this year. 

Furman is playing 1.5 seconds per possession quicker so far this year than they did a year ago. The Paladins are a really efficient offense with multiple elite scoring options on the floor at all times.

Both of these teams shoot the ball well and the pace should be there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* South Alabama's defense is really bad. They are 317th out of 324 teams who have played so far this year in effective field goal percentage defense. It isn't because they have played a bunch of good offenses either. Southern Miss put up 75 points on this team, and the Golden Eagles have major offensive woes. Flagler put up 81 points on South Alabama. 

Alabama A&M impressed on offense in their first game against Samford. This isn't a team that is going to end up being all that good on offense though. Still, they put up 79 points against this South Alabama defense last year.

South Alabama is good at pushing the pace. They are clearly the more polished offense. They should lead in this game, and they should get to the line a bunch.

This one was 89-79 in a very fast paced game last year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wright State has a lot more length and physicality in the frontcourt this year. When he was asked before the year what would be the most different about this year's Wright State team Coach Scott Nagy said they would be much better on defense thanks to their frontcourt. 

Wright State still plays relatively quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. 

Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit from a couple years ago. This Detroit team isn't great on defense by any means, but they are certainly improving on that end. 

I had this game totaled at 142, so I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't the type of bet I would usually make betting a high over in a neutral court contest. Iowa and Gonzaga aren't your typical teams though. These are the top two offenses in the country. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in tempo as well.

Luka Garza is nearly unstoppable, and Gonzaga definitely doesn't have anyone who can stop him. The Hawkeyes have multiple very good outside shooters.

Gonzaga can push in transition with Suggs and the athletic frontcourt players as well as anyone in the country. 

Iowa used a full court press quite a bit in their last game, and I expect that to show up here again. The Hawkeyes halfcourt defense is terrible, and Gonzaga will expose them. 

Gonzaga's defense was a question mark to Coach Few before the year. They'll have trouble here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings had a low scoring game against Washington State last game. I think that gives us a good chance to get a solid number to play the over here. This total is the same as the Portland State game against Washington State game was. Washington State is an under team, and Weber State has a far weaker defense.

Weber State picked up a lot of solid junior college transfers in the offseason. They had an ugly shooting performance against Boise State last game, but Boise State will make a lot of offenses look bad this year. 

The lowest scoring game in the last ten meetings between these two is a total of 151 points. This posted total has been set lower than that. 

Portland State will continue pressing and running at every opportunity and they will have a lot of high scoring games this year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have underachieved on defense according to my expectations this year. They have overachieved versus my expectations on offense. Oregon losing Pritchard has to hurt their offense on the whole. On the defensive side, Oregon should be about where they were a year ago. 

San Francisco has been really impressive this season so far. The Dons defense has impressed me in their wins over Nevada and Virginia. San Francisco should be competitive here.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass and that should limit second chance scoring. This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* These teams met on November 30th at Mercer. The final score was 86-69 and the game was played to a blistering fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reasons to expect anything different here.

Mercer uses traps and aggressive defense which keeps the opposition moving. Georgia State ranks among the 25 fastest teams in the country in terms of pace. They will be more than happy to run. 

Mercer is a much better shooting team this year with Ross Cummings on the roster. The Bears have scored 77 points or more in every game this season. 

I expect both offenses to look good here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange sped up a bit last year from the year before. They have sped up a lot more this season from last year. They have a lot more speed in the backcourt and they have more options as 3 point shooters on the outside also. This Orange team is likely to keep running through the season.

Northeastern played two games against UMass and they ran in both of those games. While they likely won't play all that fast through the year, I don't think they can stall here too much because they are likely to be losing throughout.

Take the over here. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total of the WEEK* These two teams played on Tuesday and the final score was 91-86 St. Francis. That game was played to a ridiculous fast pace of 82 possessions. If they play at that pace again, both teams could average a very weak 0.94 points per possession and this one would go over the total. This game might be a bit slower, but these are two weak defenses. 

It was no fluke that there was a really high scoring game between these two. The last two meetings before yesterday for these two teams were 169 points and 164 points.

I don't know what would make the oddsmakers set such a low total on a game like this. These teams have proven that they play at a track meet pace when they face off against each other. 

My numbers make this game quite a bit higher than this. 

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Ford has picked up the pace in a big way for this St. Louis team. I'm happy to see them push the gas pedal down. This is a team that is at their best when they are in transition and getting to the basket and drawing fouls. They should be able to do that against an Indiana State team who fouls a lot and can struggle in transition defense.

Indiana State played a high scoring game against Purdue (typically a lower scoring team). The Sycamores played very fast in that game. Indiana State has a very good guard in Tyreke Key. They should be able to get to the line too against a St. Louis defense that is very aggressive.

The tempo of this game should be quick enough to get this one past the posted total unless the shooting numbers are very poor.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gabe Watson was the top scorer for Southern Miss last year and he left the team in the offseason. Jay Ladner's team is playing significantly slower this year than it did last year (and they were already slow last year). It appears he is trying to hide their poor offense and lean on the defense to keep them in games.

Lamar lacks the outside shooting to make Southern Miss pay for sagging back in the paint and trying to keep people away from the rim. Lamar is shooting less than 25% from 3 point range on the season. 

Lamar's defense does a good job forcing a lot of turnovers and wasted trips down the floor. Southern Miss is very prone to those problems.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin played two games all of last year (31 games) with a tempo of 70 possessions or more. In their five games so far this year, three of them have been 70 possessions or more. Wisconsin is using only 16.6 seconds on average of the shot clock compared to 19.9 seconds of the shot clock last year. The Badgers will likely slow back down a bit, but this total is priced as if they are playing as slow or even slower than last year.

Loyola (Chicago) is a good offensive team. They added a very good offensive transfer from Oakland, Braden Norris. They now have a plethora of good outside shooters. The Ramblers have one big weakness as a team and that is defending the 3 point line. 

Wisconsin has been an above average team for many years in a row from beyond the arc. The Badgers should be able to get a lot of open looks from three in this one.

This number has dropped enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have improved a lot on defense this year. Why? The main reason is Theo Akwuba on the inside. The 6'11 big man is a good defensive rebounder and a guy who can swat a lot of shots in the paint. Louisiana didn't have anyone like him last year and opponents frequently got to the hoop against this team.

New Orleans takes far too many midrange jumpers for my liking. New Orleans also turns the ball over a bunch. Expect a lot of wasted possessions from them. They will improve on defense this year since their frontcourt is healthier than it was last year.

These two teams already played this year. It was a 66-63 final. This one shouldn't be that low since the shooting numbers were bad in that one, but I expect a bunch of turnovers again and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year when these two teams met the final total was 128 points. Clemson is much better on defense this year than they were a year ago. The Tigers rank second behind only Texas Tech in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have completely shut down Mississippi State, Maryland, and Alabama already this season.

Virginia Tech ranks as one of the 25 slowest paced teams in the country. The Hokies are a top 50 defense in the country as well. They have scored 64 points or less in regulation in three of their last four games. Offensively, this is a team that can go through some slumps.

Clemson's offense has struggled year after year under head coach Brad Brownell. Clemson has been inefficient every single season, and I would expect the same this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies lost their top three offensive players from a year ago. Houston Baptist was awful on defense last year and pretty good on offense. They are much weaker on offense this year. Yes, they are still bad on defense. However, Houston Baptist is clearly playing slower than last year. They are using more than a second per possession more on average already this year.

Rice also lost a bunch of their outside shooters from last year. The Owls are improved on the defensive end, but they are weaker on offense this season.

This isn't a game I'm excited to bet the under in, because Houston Baptist unders are tough to take. Still, it is one where I am off the market by enough that I have to play the under here because I see enough value.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials averaged 18.9 seconds per possession last year. They are playing much faster this year. George Washington is averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession so far this season. George Washington's games have averaged 154 points so far this year. They have played only one game this year that has stayed under this posted total. 

William & Mary has played only one game this year. The Tribe lost a 82-78 decision against Old Dominion. Old Dominion is a slow paced team with a solid defense. William & Mary is loaded with good shooters, and this is an efficient offense every year. They haven't finished outside the top 31 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense since 2012. At the same time, they aren't very good on the defensive end.

Look for George Washington to push the pace here, and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Portland State isn't a team I am looking to take unders with very often, but this number is too high from the oddsmakers when they are up against Washington State.

Kyle Smith's Washington State team is far better on defense than offense. The Cougars are also going to look to slow the game down. Portland State's single biggest weapon on offense is offensive rebounding. Washington State has been a good defensive rebounding team the last couple seasons. 

I made this number quite a few points lower than this, but I'm going to keep this as a 3 star rated play because Portland State games can have a lot of variance with their pressure style and a lot of fouls.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coppin State Eagles play at an extremely fast pace. Juan Dixon's team ranks 4th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. They are averaging 77 possessions per contest.

UMBC decided before the season that they wanted to play much quicker than a year ago. Coach Ryan Odom thought it would help the offense be more efficient and have more constant motion. So far he has been right. UMBC is shooting the ball much better from the floor so far this season.

These two teams have played each of the last three seasons. The final totals in those games have been 155, 131, and 163 points. UMBC is playing significantly faster than they were in any of those seasons. 

Coppin State doesn't shoot the ball well, but they have faced a lot of defenses that are significantly better than UMBC as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm going to keep playing Air Force unders unless I think their opposition is a great over team. Joe Scott's Air Force team is going to rank in the bottom five in the nation in tempo this year. They will run the Princeton offense and use up the clock every time down the floor.

Drake is capable of high or low scoring games. I do think Drake is likely to win this game, but they have shown in the past that they are willing to slow the pace down when they are ahead in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are going to play faster under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He learned under Kevin Keatts, and he is running the same system Keatts ran here. 

UNC Wilmington is aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting to the line a lot. They will have a tough matchup here against Ole Miss and a good interior defense, but since they are likely to be playing from behind I expect the tempo to be very quick from them. Also, I think Wilmington is likely to press at least some in this game.

Ole Miss will use their 1-3-1 zone to force turnovers this year, and they are going to look to score in transition off those turnovers. They had 75 points with 8 minutes left against Jackson State before letting off the gas to be as classy as possible. UNC Wilmington is a couple notches better than Jackson State, but the Seahawks will likely give up some easy transition buckets here.

Both teams are teams I would project to be good at getting to the line, and with a lower total like this I think that can be really important.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin from last year's team. Dayton is still a very good team, but the Flyers aren't even close to as efficient as last year. Dayton has struggled to score at times so far this year. Dayton has scored 66, 64, and 66 points in their games against Eastern Illinois, SMU, and Northern Kentucky. None of those teams are great on defense.

Mississippi State lost their top two offensive players from last year. The Bulldogs always play slowly and they are doing that again this year. This season they will be unable to shoot the ball at the same clip they did a year ago. On the other hand, they do have a couple very good shot blockers in the paint.

This game is played at a neutral site, and early games played on a neutral court have been good under bets in the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. That should be no big surprise since Chris Beard's teams are always excellent on the defensive end. Texas Tech has only allowed 46, 40, and 44 points in their last three games. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't going to score many points here. The Islanders play at a slow pace and they struggle badly with turnovers. There will be a bunch of wasted possessions for them.

Texas Tech is 99th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Raiders offense is pretty good, but they also turn it over too much. This is a team that is comfortable playing at a slow pace as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mick Cronin's teams are always strong on the defensive end. The Bruins will be good on that end again this year. 

So far this season UCLA has been good on offense as well, but they have played some very weak defenses. The Bruins are now up against a Marquette team that ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Marquette isn't the same team without Markus Howard. Howard was a shot maker and a guy that got to the line a lot and knocked down a ton of shots from the charity stripe. Their offensive efficiency will be far lower this season. 

Last year Marquette was 60th in tempo, and so far this year they are much slower 141st in the country. UCLA ranks in the bottom 20% of teams in the country in terms of tempo. 

Look for a tight lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have a new head coach in Bryce Drew this year. Drew has always had his teams play slower than average. Grand Canyon has started out this year playing at a very slow pace against Grambling and Mississippi Valley State (it is hard to slow a game down against these guys). 

Nevada lost a ton of offense from last year's team. The Wolf Pack no longer have a go to guy on offense, and their backcourt is a big question mark. While they are clearly weaker on offense, I like Nevada's length in the frontcourt and how it could lead to opponents having a tougher time getting to the rim against this team. 

Nevada and Grand Canyon have both played some games that have been very low scoring on relative basis compared to last year. Based on both of these teams being high flying teams in recent seasons, I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted this total down enough.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are a much different team than they were a year ago. They have far less offensive weapons, but they are clearly better on defense. BYU now has a big man in the middle of the paint with length that can deter drivers from getting to the hoop. Matt Haarms is somewhat limited on offense, but he should be pretty good for this BYU team. 

BYU has played five Division One teams this year, and four of them rank in the top 100 in the nation in tempo. The Cougars have still played four of those five games under this total (highest score was only 147). I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting BYU totals down enough for their new roster.

Boise State's Marcus Shaver is banged up and will likely be less than 100% here. The Broncos have a good defensive team who can go through slumps on offense at times because they don't move enough.

BYU is good at forcing a lot of midrange jumpers which isn't ideal for Boise State's offensive identity. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers are playing significantly faster on offense this year. Travis Steele has his team spreading out on the floor and looking to use a euro style to get space and create open looks for their improved shooters on the perimeter. 

Oklahoma always wants to run under Coach Kruger. The Sooners have seen 171 and 160 points scored in their first two games. Their offense starts with Austin Reaves, and I don't think Xavier has anyone who matches up well defending him. 

I expect lots of chances in transition for both teams. These two teams are going to be very good in transition this season. 

Expect a close game all the way, and overtime or a foul fest is certainly a possibility with the way this game would project.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions on Wednesday night. Arkansas State has played a very tough schedule of defenses so far, and that has made their offensive numbers very ugly. That should change here.

Arkansas State has had 23.7% of their shots blocked so far this year. That can't continue. They saw less than 6% of their shots blocked a year ago, and an average number is in the 9-10% range. 

A key to this handicap for me is both teams getting to the free throw line a lot. Pine Bluff has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling the last five years in a row. Arkansas State has ranked in the bottom 25 in that same stat in the last two years. 

Both of these teams have ranked very highly at getting to the charity stripe. They are both aggressive at taking it to the basket. Look for a lot of trips to the line in this game.

Pine Bluff has allowed 80 points or more in every game this year. I think Arkansas State can get there or get very close. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have had a drastic change in pace so far this year. Bryant averaged 17.2 seconds per possession last year, but so far this year they are at a blistering face pace of only 12.8 seconds per possession. That is the second fastest pace in the country so far this year. 

Bryant has played three games. Two of them have been against Division I schools (Syracuse and New Hampshire). Those two games had a pace of 86 and 82 possessions. Their game against Rhode Island College finished 138-93 (97 possessions). After that game Jared Grasso, head coach at Bryant, said he was very happy with the pace his team played at in that contest.

St. Francis and Bryant played one of their two games last season over this number, and that was with Bryant playing significantly slower. The opening total has been bet up some here, but I don't think it has been bet up enough considering the tempo change.

St. Francis has been a slightly faster than average paced team on the whole in the last three seasons. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Hampton Pirates lost their two stars from last year. Jermaine Marrow graduated and Ben Stanley transferred to Xavier. Those two guys averaged 24.8 ppg and 22.0 ppg last season. They also lost their fourth leading scorer in Greg Heckstall. 

Before the season, Hampton Coach Edward Joyner Jr. said he wanted to change the tempo of his team this year. He said the strength of the team is inside and they need to run more halfcourt sets. Hampton ranked 56th in the nation in tempo last year, but they will be slower this season. They also are very likely to be far less efficient on offense. 

Norfolk State is usually the best or second best defense in the MEAC. Norfolk State isn't very good offensively, but they can force teams into a lot of bad looks and turnovers.

Last year, Norfolk State played 11 games against Division I opponents in the non-conference schedule at the beginning of the year. All 11 of those games stayed under this total. One of those games was against Hampton (who was without Marrow as they will be again here) and the final was just 64-53. 

I would expect Hampton to be a little better on defense and worse on offense this year. Norfolk State is a very similar team to a year ago. This total is set at too high of a number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers want to play with a lot more pace this year. Coach Ryan Odom said he believes the uptick in tempo this season will help with their offensive efficiency. The team has spent every bit of time they had prior to the season getting ready for their new faster style of play.

George Washington is playing much faster as well. Jamion Christian says he now has the personnel to play faster and shoot a lot more 3's than they did a year ago. George Washington ranks as the 17th fastest in average possession length so far this year. Their games have finished with 149, 160, and 154 points.

I expect to see a fast pace in this game, and the number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met last year and the final total was 132 points. Houston is playing much slower so far this season, and I think they will try to turn this into a halfcourt contest.

South Carolina is once again a very scrappy team who will be excellent on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are likely to struggle on offense though. They only scores 62 on Liberty and 69 on Tulsa. Houston is a better defense than either of those teams.

This game is totaled as an average scoring game in college hoops. I think these defenses are too good for that number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Air Force has played at the single slowest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Joe Scott has made it known that he wants this team to run the Princeton offense and move extremely slowly this season. They have done exactly that thus far. Their first two games finished with 127 points (against a very fast paced team) and 108 points. 

Lamar is averaging only 58.3 points per game this year. They scored only 45 against Houston and 57 against Tulane. The Cardinals move a little faster than an average offense, but they are very inefficient. 

The books are having a hard time catching up to Air Force's change of pace. Unless they shoot really well here, I don't think they can get to this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eastern Washington is all about running and gunning on offense. This team ranked 19th in overall tempo in the country last year. 

What has Sean Miller talked about a bunch in the offseason? That he wants his team to play faster. Here is their chance. Arizona did shoot the ball quickly on their possessions against Grambling, but they weren't very efficient. I think the fact that the Grambling game was awfully low scoring for the tempo makes this total a good value.

Eastern Washington has several scorers, but they can't play any defense. Arizona should be able to put up a big number on them.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks didn't look very good in their loss to Missouri a couple days ago, but Missouri has more talent than most realize. Also, Missouri has decided to pick up their tempo a lot this season. The Tigers put up 83 points on what should be a good Oregon defense.

Seton Hall is a good defensive team under Kevin Willard. The Pirates play at an average tempo, and their guards aren't very good in transition offense. 

This game is played on a neutral court in Omaha. These neutral court games have been great under bets in the long run, and I think Oregon's first game being so high scoring has given us good line value on this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense wasn't good last year. Now, they are without their three best offensive options from a year ago. Jaden McDaniels and Isiah Stewart are in the NBA. Nahziah Carter is suspended right now. 

Washington has looked awful on the offensive end in their first couple games. They were non-competitive in a 86-52 loss to a great Baylor team in game one. The real concerning one for Washington fans was their 57-42 loss at home to UC Riverside. 

These two teams have met five times since Mike Hopkins took over at Washington and they started running the matchup zone defense. Utah and Washington have combined to score 132, 128, 122, 107, and 133 points in those five matchups. 

Utah has consistently been in the bottom 30% of the country in terms of tempo. I don't expect that to change this year. The Utes don't have much height on the perimeter and that long matchup zone of Washington has really given them trouble. 

Look for Utah's defense to be able to keep the weak Washington offense in check, and the matchup zone is likely still a problem for Utah.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers offense won't be as efficient this year without Tres Tinkle. He was the go to guy nearly all the time for this team the last few years. They played a bit slower in their first contest this year, and I would expect them to be a slow tempo team this season. They have more length this year though, and I think they could be better on the defensive end. 

Washington State has looked very good on defense in their first two games. The Cougars held Texas Southern (a pretty good SWAC offense) to only 52 points. They also held an Eastern Washington good offense to 68 points in game two. The Cougars prefer to play slowly, and this is their first opponent who will be happy to play slowly along with them.

Based on the projected pace and the shooting numbers necessary to get this past this total, I think this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Quinnipiac Bobcats meet on a neutral floor (Mohegan Sun) on Wednesday night. 

Drexel and Quinnipiac are fairly similar teams to last year. Drexel is playing a bit slower than a year ago, but they have been slightly more efficient on offense (just one game). Quinnipiac has the same nucleus and same coach and I expect a similar style of play as last year for them as well.

These two teams met last year on a neutral floor and the final score was 72-63. The tempo was just 65 possessions so it was a slow paced game.

Neutral courts are good for the under and that has already shown itself this season. This number has been set awfully high. I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Steele said before the season that he wanted his team to go with a motion offense that led to them playing at a faster pace this year. Through three games, they have definitely played quicker. They averaged using 17.7 seconds of the shot clock last year and they are using only 16.3 seconds of the shot clock so far this year. Steele really thinks he has a much better outside shooting team this year as well.

Eastern Kentucky likes to press as much as possible and push the pace of the game. They have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass too, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. Eastern Kentucky's games typically have a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

This is a great opportunity for Xavier to work their motion offense and spread the floor and look for quicker shots.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Archie Miller said he has been wanting to play with faster tempo since he has been at Indiana, but this is the first time he has had the right guys to be able to do it. In their first game, Indiana used up only 13.4 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Hoosiers were playing far faster than they did last year. His players have said from practices that they are excited and that "people will be surprised at how fast we play." 

Providence played quick in their first game against Fairfield (a team who likes to slow the game down). Ed Cooley's teams can be a bit hard to figure out as far as their preferred pace, but I think their aggression on defense is likely to get Indiana to the line quite a bit here. On the other side, Providence is great on the offensive glass which should get them good second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Play* The Samford Bulldogs have a new coach in Bucky McMillan. McMillan has stated in the preseason that he wants his team to win games that are "played in the 90's." He wants to use full court pressure all game long and sub in and out guys a bunch to stay fresh. 

It was a game against a Division III opponent, but Samford's exhibition win over Greenville University was one of the craziest box scores you will ever see. Samford won that game 174-99. Yes, you read that right.. they scored 174 points.

Also, the pace of the game was unreal. The game paced out to 116 possessions. An average game is 66 or 67 possessions. A very fast paced game is 85 or 90 possessions. 

I don't think we should assume Samford will be able to get Alabama A&M to play that quickly, but I do think Alabama A&M will have trouble with the press. Alabama A&M has finished two of the last three seasons in the bottom 40 in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Samford will turn them over and get easy scores.

Samford is the favorite here for a reason, and with them likely ahead in this one it should make Alabama A&M not be able to stall as often.

Samford's players and coaches are all talking the talk about playing extremely fast and they looked like they are backing it up in that exhibition. If they are- this total is clearly too low.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the WEEK* The Loyola Marymount Lions are playing a completely different way this year. Stan Johnson was a Marquette assistant and he took over the head coaching job at Loyola Marymount this year after the team let Mike Dunlap go at the end of last year. Johnson wants the team to play quicker, and they definitely did that in game one against Southern Utah. 

There were 74 possessions in that first game. That's a fast paced game, and it is something Loyola Marymount didn't do at all last year under Dunlap. All season long last season not a single game against a Division I opponent was played that fast.

Minnesota was absolutely flying up and down the court against Wisconsin Green Bay in game one. They shot the ball on average only 12.5 seconds into the clock. The Golden Gophers put up 99 points despite going only 7/34 from the 3 point line. 

Loyola Marymount ranked 15th in shot quality last year, but was only 112th in effective field goal percentage shooting. They have enough solid shooters on their team that they should improve their efficiency on offense. 

Minnesota's Marcus Carr is going to be a very tough guard for Loyola Marymount. Adding Liam Robbins down low and Both Gach on the perimeter gives Minnesota more scoring options than last year.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Scott's Denver Pioneers were a great under team. I expect Air Force to slow things down drastically this year from the past few seasons. Dave Phillipovich had the team playing at an average pace, and that simply isn't going to happen under Scott.

It remains to be seen how good the Air Force defense will be (likely not very good), but a game with a total set this high with a team stalling the way Scott's teams always did at Denver is a must bet to the under for me.

CS Northridge lost their top two players from last year. This is a team that doesn't have a great identity on either end of the floor right now.

I expect a slower pace here and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* SE Louisiana went a shockingly bad 1/28 from 3 point range in their season opener. That's really hard to do. SE Louisiana pushes the pace in a big way, and UAB will be more than happy to play fast under new coach Andy Kennedy. Can SE Louisiana knock down more shots here? They aren't likely to be great shooting as a team this year, but they are due for positive regression after a 1/28 performance. 

Kennedy's teams ranked in the top 75 or so in the country in tempo every year when he was on the sidelines in the past. UAB does have good shooters around the perimeter and several slashers that can get to the bucket.

SE Louisiana's defense takes all kinds of risks with the full court press and the team gives up a lot of open close shots. Their opponents also get to the line a lot. Expect this to be a big problem against this UAB offense.

My tempo projections here point to this total being closer to 150.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. 

UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot.

There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Marymount Lions have a new coach this year. Mike Dunlap is gone and so is his very slow paced style. Stan Johnson was an assistant at Marquette, where they played a very fast paced style year after year. Johnson has already said they are committed to speeding things up this season.

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds went out and got some junior college guys who can shoot from long range in the offseason. Todd Simon's team should be much better on offense than they were a year ago. Simon also said in the offseason that they'll play faster. Simon said "I think we'll play faster- we've always been up-tempo, but we'll kick it up a notch this year." 

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the two teams both picking up the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luke Yaklich is an amazing defensive mind. He made the Illinois State Redbirds a great defensive end in his time with the team. After he left the team's defensive numbers have gone down every year. When Yaklich showed up at Michigan as a defensive assistant the team was #68 in defensive efficiency. They were #3 and #2 in the next two years. Texas also got better under him last year. 

Yaklich is preaching contesting jumpers and getting on the defensive glass to this UIC team. I expect them to be a good defensive team.

Northern Illinois struggled a lot with offensive efficiency last year. They don't have any new weapons that would make me expect them to improve on that end. This team doesn't get to the line much either. They are solid on defense and are very good defensive rebounders. 

I expect a low scoring contest here.

Take the under.