Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Tigers defense was torched by Northern Iowa in their last game. Northern Iowa appears to be one of the best (if not the best) offense in the MVC. Bradley isn't that efficient on offense, especially without Elijah Childs.

Missouri State is tremendous at slowing the game down. The Bears use nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is among the slowest teams in the country. They'll be doing that again here.

Bradley is a solid team defensively, and Childs is a bigger loss on the offensive end than the defensive end.

I considered this game last night, but waited for a line move up. It moved up and is now easily above my number of 125 for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are absolutely awful on offense. Fordham has scored 44, 60, and 46 points in their last three games. Fordham ranks 342nd out of 353 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They have played a ton of weak defenses, and still haven't been able to score much at all.

Fordham is now without Chuba Ohams for the rest of the year due to an injury. Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi are both questionable for this game with injuries. This is three of their top four scorers. They couldn't score with this guys, and without it gets even uglier. 

Duquesne is a good defensive team. The Dukes are 56th in defensive efficiency and 51st in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their pace of play quite a bit from a year ago. 

Fordham plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Atlantic 10. I see this one staying very low scoring primarily because Fordham won't put up many.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are playing excellent defense right now. Seton Hall has an elite defender in McKnight. He is able to guard the best perimeter man from the other team and make things very difficult on them.           

Butler ranks 344th out of 353 in the nation in average possession length. The Bulldogs rank 5th in defensive efficiency and 4th in effective field goal percentage defense. Butler will slow this game down.

Five of Butler's last six games have finished at 128 or lower. Seton Hall has improved defensively a great deal since a year ago.

With the big line move up- I have to take the under here.

Take the under.                                   

*4 Star Play Under* A very rare 11 am eastern start time during the week in mid January. This is far from the normal in college basketball. In these spots I always initially lean to the under. These spots have shown to be positive for the under in past seasons. College students aren't accustomed to this, and that can throw off the rhythm of the game.

Colgate is probably the best team in the Patriot League this year. Lafayette is a quality team as well. Both of these do two things very well on defense. They don't foul. They also don't give many second chance opportunities. 

Colgate and Lafayette will put up a lot of 3's in this one. If they get red hot then this under will lose, but the start time is helpful and both of these defenses have been far above average in 3 point defense. 

Neither team likes to play very fast to begin with, and this is a big game for both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs play a similar style of basketball. Both prefer to play at a slow pace. They are both unable to play quickly without turning the ball over too often. Even in the halfcourt, both of these teams are turning the ball over at very high rates. They must shoot a very high percentage to score efficiently or grab offensive boards and get second chances. 

These teams met late last year and the final was 68-49. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 58 possessions. 

Missouri just played a high scoring game against Florida, and that has adjusted this total upward too much. Even after that game, 13 of Missouri's 15 games have gone below this posted total. Mississippi State has played 5 games that have finished at 128 points or lower, so they are very capable of playing in low scoring games too.

I had this one lined at 127, so I see a good amount of value in this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies don't have enough offensive weapons to win high scoring games this year. Buzz Williams still can get his team to guard though, and he has the Aggies slowing the game down and competing very hard on the defensive end. They have been able to keep games extremely low scoring on a very consistent basis. How low? The Aggies have had 13 straight games finish at 129 points or lower. 

LSU was playing quickly in the non-conference slate, but the Tigers are using 2.3 seconds per possession more of the shot clock in SEC action thus far. The Tigers have had a couple very low scoring games in their last four contests. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams stayed under this number, and both of these teams are clearly better on defense than they were a year ago.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats were adamant in the preseason that they wanted to slow down their pace significantly. Weber State is 292nd out of 353 in average possession length, so they have been playing pretty slow. Here, they go up against a Sacramento State team that has used up 20.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in conference play. The Hornets are among the very slowest teams in the country.

Sacramento State has only had 3 games all year above this total and two of them finished at 121 points. The Hornets are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling which is certainly important with a number this low.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Tennessee Tech has clearly sped up their pace of play in the last five or six games. The oddsmakers haven't quite been able to catch up to their style change. 

Murray State is great in transition on offense and Tennessee Tech struggles defending in transition. The Racers should get a lot of easy ones here. With a total this low and Murray State likely to put up a number at least in the upper 70's, I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

UC Riverside is a great under team. UC Riverside wants to control the tempo and play about as slow as anyone in the nation. As long as they aren't down big, a game they are in is almost always going to be played at an extremely slow pace. They are favored here and are playing a Fullerton team who is much better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The Hampton Pirates got their superstar back in Jermaine Marrow. He is one of the best scorers in the nation. With him, Hampton has a guy that no one in the league can consistently stop. Hampton plays at the fastest pace in the conference as well.

The Pirates struggle defending the 3 point shot and Longwood has been very good from 3 in the past couple years (they put up a lot of 3's too). 

The meetings between these teams last year were extremely high scoring. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always excellent defensively under Chris Beard. They are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Red Raiders once again are excellent at forcing turnovers and contesting every shot.

West Virginia has backed off the "Press Virginia" style a bit this year. They still press occasionally, but they are excellent in halfcourt defense now, and have looked a bit better when they aren't speeding up the game. The Mountaineers are 3rd in defensive efficiency this year, so they have been great defensively. 

Two of the best defenses in the country squaring off against each other here. Two of the best defensive coaches in the country. This should be a hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Eastern Michigan's zone defense can give opponents fits, and this Northern Illinois team isn't good offensively to begin with. Northern Illinois is much improved defensively, and they have struggled on the offensive end against all the better defenses they have faced. There is nothing to suggest that they will have much success here.

Eastern Michigan's offense turns it over on nearly 30% of all offensive possessions. Tons of wasted possessions here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are doing the same thing they did a year ago. Missouri State is using a ton of clock every time they have the ball. Missouri State is averaging using 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock in MVC play thus far. 

Northern Iowa is using 19.7 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession, and this is a team that is always the most comfortable when playing at a slow pace. 

The two meetings between them last year finished at 123 points and 106 points. They were both played extremely slowly. 

Missouri State is a team that I was very successful taking unders with last year, and with them slowing down even more again in conference play, I'm backing the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Howard Bison defense ranks 350th in the nation in efficiency. This team can't stop anyone. Norfolk State has what I believe to be the best offense in the conference. They have been extremely efficient in their first couple games in conference action.

Howard has a couple good scorers and should be able to get their points as well.

This total is too low based on Norfolk State struggling to score against non conference opponents. All three of the games between these two last year flew past this posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams both play at an extremely quick pace. The last two meetings between these two have finished at 174 and 186 points. 

Bethune Cookman is 24th in the nation in overall pace. Coppin State is 7th. Coppin State is playing much faster than they did a year ago, and last year's meeting was played at a breakneck pace of 81 possessions. 

I would expect an extremely quick pace here, and the only way this doesn't go over is some terrible shooting from both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The first game of the year Virginia beat Syracuse 48-34. Do I expect anything like that here? No, but they can pick things up quite a bit and it will still be under this total. 

Virginia's offense was good last year, but they lost all of their offensive efficiency when Hunter, Guy, Jerome, and company left. The Cavs are still great defensively, but their firepower on offense is very weak now.

Syracuse and Virginia have battled to very low games before. I expect it again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Duquesne's defense is light years better than it was last season. The Dukes offense has faced an extremely easy schedule of defenses this year, so I think they are a bit overvalued right now. 

We know Jamion Christian's teams (Siena last year) love to slow things down and this number has moved up quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

VMI has sped up their pace quite a bit in recent games. The Keydets tried to slow things down a bit earlier this year, but it wasn't working. They have gone back to pushing the pace as they did earlier this year.

E Tennessee State has played a lot of good defensive teams who slow it down of late. That definitely isn't the case here. There is value in this number because of the Bucs recent lower scoring games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks had the best defense in the Sun Belt when it came to effective field goal percentage defense last year. UT Arlington's defensive numbers don't look great so far this year, but it is important to keep some perspective. Look at the schedule UT Arlington has played so far. They had to take on Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston, Furman, and Nevada. They have played the 8th toughest slate of offenses so far this year. They will face much weaker offenses in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina turns the ball over a lot on offense and wastes too many possessions. UT Arlington doesn't get to the line much, and that has been the downfall of the Coastal Carolina defense (fouling too much). 

The two meetings between these two teams last year were 74-54 and 61-58. Neither even came close to this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day/night Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Illinois is a completely different team with Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint on defense. Brad Underwood's team is no longer fouling a lot on defense, and they are really bothering opponents into taking tough shots.

Rutgers has multiple great shot blockers, and I'm impressed with how hard Rutgers plays on defense every possession. Without Geo Baker, the offense has a lower upside.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a really low posted total, but I still have to take the under here. The Sacramento State Hornets have played 12 games so far this year. How many of their 12 games have stayed under this low total? A whopping 11 of their 12 games have stayed under this total. Their second highest scoring game of the year had a total of 121 points scored.

Sacramento State is favored in this game, and I think they can get their style of play. The Hornets play strong defense, and they use more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. Northern Arizona ranks among the 35 slowest teams in the country in average possession length. This should be played in the halfcourt.

I had this game totaled at 119.5 here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have played an extremely low scoring series against each other. These two teams have met seven times since the start of 2017. The highest scoring game was 139 points. Six of the seven games have finished at 126 points or less. They haven't even been close to this total.

Coastal Carolina is playing slightly faster this year, but Texas State is good at controlling the pace. Texas State also forces a lot of turnovers, and that is Coastal Carolina's primary weakness. Coastal Carolina ranks 290th in the nation in turnover percentage. They will likely end up with a lot of wasted trips in this game.

Texas State is 238th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Bobcats haven't scored more than 70 points in a Sun Belt game so far this year.

The total deserves to be higher than the last few meetings, but this is too big of an adjustment. I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles are 330th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Austin Peay is 319th in effective field goal percentage defense. A total this low between two teams with very weak defenses is pretty rare.

Tennessee Tech has allowed 78 points or more in six of their last seven games against a Division I opponent. They allowed 74 in the other one to Eastern Kentucky (341st in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense). 

Austin Peay is 78th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Governors have a great forward in Terry Taylor. Taylor is so efficient in the post, and Tennessee Tech doesn't have anyone who can slow him down. Tennessee Tech was better defensively last year than they are this year, and they gave up 77 points to Austin Peay last year.

Tennessee Tech has been playing faster in OVC action than they did in non-conference play. I think this game gets into the 140's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have seen 9 of their last 10 games go below this posted total in regulation. Eight of those nine have been 126 points or less. Purdue isn't very good on offense, but the Boilermakers are an excellent defensive team. 

Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have a lot of length on the inside and can really contest shots well. Purdue also slows the tempo down very well. They rank 340th out of 353 teams in the country in pace.

Michigan is an average paced team. The Wolverines have had some very high scoring games, but they have also played very low scoring games against Louisville and Oregon. Purdue is actually slightly better on defense than those two teams. 

Michigan's defense has faced a really tough slate of offenses thus far, and I think the Wolverines are fairly solid defensively.

With the line move up today, I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Carolina has improved immensely on offense under Mark Prosser the last two years. They were 325th in effective field goal percentage offense the year before Prosser came to coach this team. In his first season last year, Western Carolina jumped to 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense. What about this year? The Catamounts are 15th in that same category. 

VMI is 336th in defensive efficiency. The Keydets haven't been able to stop anyone. It is hard to see that changing here against Western Carolina. VMI has been nailing a bunch of 3's lately though. Freshman Travis Evee has made 6 three pointers by himself in 3 of their last 4 games. VMI started the season playing slower on offense, but they are pushing the pace lately as they did most of last year.

Western Carolina is 260th in defensive efficiency, and the Catamounts have faced a lot of weak defenses this season.

The two regular season games between these teams last year finished at 161 points and 174 points. The conference tournament matchup finished at 179 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both St. Bonaventure and George Mason work to slow the pace down. The Bonnies are 326th in overall tempo. George Mason is 282nd in overall tempo. Both of these teams do a good job getting back in transition as well, and I would expect this one to be played in the halfcourt.

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed well under this posted total. I had this game lined at 127, and I see this as a value.

Look for a tight and low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the games between these two teams sailed over the posted total last year. I think the over has value again here. Hampton is 346th out of 353 teams in defensive efficiency. USC Upstate is 329th in defensive efficiency. These are the worst of the worst when it comes to defense.

Jermaine Marrow had to sit out several games for Hampton, but he is back and he is one of the best scorers most people haven't heard about. Marrow is the guy that makes this Hampton offense go, and they play much faster with him on the court. No one on this USC Upstate team can guard him.

USC Upstate's offensive efficiency numbers have clearly risen in recent games. The youngsters are starting to knock down some jumpers, and they'll get open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears found success last year by slowing things down to a crawl last year, especially in conference play. The Bears averaged using 20.6 seconds of the shot clock per possession in MVC action. They are doing exactly the same this year. The Bears are averaging 21.0 seconds per play in MVC action so far this year. 

Illinois State doesn't take good care of the basketball and neither does Missouri State. We should see a lot of wasted possessions in this game. Look for both teams to have empty trips and with a slow pace that is even more important.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Missouri State has seen 4 of its last 5 games stay at 128 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense ranks number one in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have given up just 0.783 points per possession on the season. That is easily first in the nation. The Cavs are averaging using 21.3 seconds per possession which is easily the slowest in the nation. 

Virginia has played 10 of its 13 games under this extremely low total. Boston College would like to play a little quicker, but the Eagles offense has been held in the 40's twice already this year by Richmond and Duke. Boston College is without Nik Popovic and that hurts their offensive efficiency quite a bit.

This number has been bet up and I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have consistently been a very low scoring team. I took the under in their last game. Unfortunately it lost because of overtime. Nine of Purdue's last ten games have been under this posted total at the end of regulation. Six of those nine games have been at 124 or lower. 

Purdue is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers have a lot of length and they are great at contesting shots.

Illinois is much better defensively this year. The Fighting Illini are using a completely different style of defense. It helps that they have Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint. He is a defensive force. Illinois went from 338th in fouls committed per field goal attempt last year to 6th this year. 

Illinois was 52nd in pace of play last year, but they are 185th so far this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* It certainly isn't exciting to bet a Houston Baptist under, but this number is so high I have to bet it. This is an early season conference game, and one of the two teams in this matchup has clearly looked to be slowing down their pace from a couple seasons ago (Northwestern State). 

Neither of these defenses are good, but this is about as high of a total as you will ever see in college basketball. Northwestern State isn't efficient at all on offense, and they will look to slow this game down.

Early conference action with totals of 155 or higher have been good unders in the past decade (55% or so) and this one fits that system. 

Look for a high scoring game, but this number is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have struggled on offense all year. That is despite the fact that they have played the 15th weakest slate of defenses so far this year. George Washington just isn't a team that has many scoring options. Justin Mazzulla was one of their best options before he stepped away from the team a few weeks ago (transferring). George Washington is likely to struggle badly in A10 play on the offensive end.

St. Bonaventure ranks among the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. The Bonnies were the second best defense in the A10 last year. They are very good on defense again this year. 

These two teams play at an almost identical pace, so I wouldn't expect to see either team looking to get out in transition much.

Neither team gets to the free throw line much, and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies aren't at 100% healthy now. Their star scorer Sam Merrill is banged up and playing through it. Neemias Queta is questionable here with an injury as well.

San Diego State is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 11th in defensive efficiency. This Aztecs team is excellent on the defensive end. 

Utah State is a top 60 defense in the country as well. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive glass.

Both games between these two teams were played at 63 possessions last year, and these teams are playing a similar style this year. If a similar tempo is playing here it would take excellent shooting numbers to top this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played five straight games against Division I opponents that have finished at 154 points or higher. Air Force is running a new offense with more screening and cutting. That has really helped Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie excel on the offensive end.

Air Force is absolutely terrible on defense. They are 340th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Air Force has played the 20th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353) so far this year as well.

UNLV's offense has improved of late. Their biggest problem has been with teams who force turnovers at a high rate, but Air Force very rarely forces turnovers. 

With both offenses clearly having the upper hand, I like this one to get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pepperdine ranks 20th in average possession length. The Waves are playing at an extremely fast pace. Gonzaga is more than happy to play quickly. The Bulldogs are 15th in average possession length this year.

Gonzaga has been running up the score on weaker teams. They put up 101 points on Texas Southern. They put up 112 points on Eastern Washington. It would be a surprise if they don't put up a big number here.

Gonzaga's defense was elite last year, but they lost their shot blockers in the frontcourt. The Bulldogs aren't bad on defense, but they are far weaker than a year ago.

With both defenses weaker than a year ago, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs are much better offensively now that Kendric Davis is eligible. He is the team's most talented offensive player by a large margin. Davis has been leading this team to several very impressive offensive performances in a row the last few games. SMU has scored 85 and 82 points against two pretty good defenses in their last two games.

Vanderbilt is playing fairly quick under first year coach Jerry Stackhouse. The Commodores are 13th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 209th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this game lined at 148.5 and the drop in the line has created value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast is no longer the fast paced dunk city version from several years ago. This team doesn't have enough offensive firepower so they have drastically slowed down their pace of play. Florida Gulf Coast has stayed under this low total in 9 of their last 10 games against Division I opponents. 

Lipscomb has played a lot of teams who like to run so far this year, but Florida Gulf Coast will do their best to keep this game in the halfcourt. 

I had this game lined in the upper 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have decided to play at a much slower tempo this year. Many teams in the Big Sky will try to push the pace on Weber State, but Northern Arizona is happy to play at a slow tempo. Northern Arizona is 321st in average possession length this year. Weber State is 288th in average possession length this year. 

Both Weber State and Northern Arizona have faced a very tough slate of offenses so far this year. These defenses are far from strong, but they aren't as bad as they look on the stat sheet right now.

Jerrick Harding is questionable with a sprained ankle here, and Harding is the key guy for Weber State on offense. I like this play even if he plays, but it has more value if he sits. Kham Davis who averages 8.8 points per game is out for this game also.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are consistently the same type of team. Georgia Tech struggles on offense, but they play really hard on the defensive end for Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets are 252nd in offensive efficiency, but they are 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

North Carolina was playing somewhat slower this year to begin with, but now that they have serious injury problems this team is way different than it has been in previous seasons. The Tar Heels don't have their star in Cole Anthony. They also lost Anthony Harris to a torn ACL.

North Carolina is 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tar Heels are 96th in the same defensive category.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* James Madison has committed to playing much faster this year. The Dukes are 12th in the country in average length of possession, so they are definitely flying up and down the floor.

College of Charleston has the best player in the conference in Grant Riller. Charleston faced a bunch of very good defenses in the non-conference slate, and their offensive numbers are going to get a lot better in the CAA against very weak defenses like James Madison. The Dukes have faced the 7th easiest offenses out of 353 teams in the country. That changes here.

The tempo should be quick and I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Arkansas Bears got DeAndre Jones back last game and he poured in 21 points. Jones is arguably their most important offensive player. Central Arkansas ranks 6th in the nation in overall tempo, and Jones is a guy who helps them push that pace.

McNeese State is 103rd in overall tempo. McNeese State is 18th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the country in free throws attempted/field goal attempted. They should make a living at the line here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders offense ranks 89th in the country in offensive efficiency. They have only faced the 325th toughest (out of 353) slate of defenses as well according to KenPom. This Red Raiders offense will go through some long scoring droughts against really good defenses.

Texas Tech is once again excellent on defense. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on the defensive end.

Oklahoma State is 22nd in defensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cowboys use a zone defense part of the time, and Texas Tech's offense has really struggled against zone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IUPUI Jaguars defense has become a major weakness. IUPUI has allowed 95, 83, and 82 points in their last three games. All three of those games were against teams who have had significant trouble scoring this year. IUPUI has allowed 80 points or more in 9 of their 13 games against Division I opponents this year.

Milwaukee is playing faster this year than in recent years. The Panthers were 304th in average possession length two years ago. They were 212th last year. They are 120th this year. They are getting quicker by the year, and the Panthers are playing an IUPUI team that wants to run under their new coach.

Milwaukee should be able to generate some quick points off turnovers here, but they will also commit quite a few fouls.

I had this game lined at 148.5.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags have been so consistent at keeping games low scoring this year. Some teams can have occasional extremely low scoring games, but it is rare to see a team that has been low scoring every single game. Fairfield has had 11 games so far this year. How many of those games have gone over this posted total? One! 

Fairfield ranks 350th in average possession length (4th slowest). They are significantly better on defense than offense under new coach Jay Young as well.

Niagara has played four games that have stayed under this total. Niagara has a very weak defense, but Fairfield isn't likely to capitalize on Niagara's inability to grab defensive rebounds nearly as well as most of their other opponents.

This projects as a very slow paced game and unless the shooting numbers are higher than average this one should stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Todd Golden took over as a first year head coach at San Francisco this year. Golden has this San Francisco team pushing the pace much more than Kyle Smith did a year ago. They are playing 5.5 possessions per game faster. Golden worked as an assistant under Bruce Pearl a few years ago before assisting at San Francisco. 

San Francisco was 45th in offensive efficiency last year. They are up to 29th this year. The Dons though were 125th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 205th so far this year. The Dons are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1% from 3 point range so far this year. 

St. Mary's is number one in the country at 42.7% from 3 point range. The Gaels will get open looks here, and they'll likely knock them down. They have 4 guys on their team shooting better than 40% from 3 point range. 

The Gaels are playing a touch quicker than a year ago, and their defense has been worse than last year as well. 

Neither one of these defenses has played a tough slate of offenses so far this year. They both face huge tests here.

The two games between these two last year were 148 and 166 points. With a quicker tempo and more efficient offenses, I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers rank sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. Purdue has a good defensive big man in the middle in Haarms. The Boilermakers also have a lot of athleticism on the perimeter. This is a team that does a great job contesting all shots.

Matt Painter's team has slowed the pace a lot from last year. Purdue was 268th in tempo (out of 353) last year. They are all the way down at #340 this year. The Boilermakers have played nine games under this total so far this year. Their two Big Ten games finished at 102 and 126 points. 

Minnesota has been back and forth this year. The Golden Gophers have been tremendous on offense in their last couple games, but that is what has given us value on the under. This number has been bet up by 5 points. That is an overreaction. Minnesota is unlikely to be able to keep shooting the way they have been of late, especially on the road against arguably the best defense they have faced so far this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes completely changed their offense in the postseason. Many coaches talk about wanting to run the floor, but Coach Rowe has been seriously committed to changing from a halfcourt style offense to a team who gets out in transition and shoots a lot of long range jumpers.

James Madison is 9th in the nation in average possession length. The Dukes are averaging 76 possessions per game. Their offense has been solid, but their defense has been dreadful. How bad? James Madison is 317th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have faced the 10th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353). 

UNC Wilmington likes to play quickly. The Seahawks have played a bunch of opponents who walk it up the court this year. That definitely won't be the case here. Wilmington has ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in defending the 3 point line in the last two seasons. They'll give James Madison open looks from long range.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very strong defense. Greensboro has the best defense in the SoCon, and it isn't even close. Greensboro's opponents are averaging just 0.917 points per possession. The Spartans are less efficient on offense this year after Alonso and Troy graduated at the end of last season. They are even better on defense this year than they were a year ago though.

UNC Greensboro is the far better team in this matchup, and Greensboro has slowed their pace down dramatically so far this year. They ranked 77th in quickest average possession length last year. They are only 263rd so far this year. 

Mercer started the season trying to play very quickly, but it didn't work well. The Bears have recently played at a much slower pace. I think they'll be happy to play in the halfcourt with UNC Greensboro. I think Mercer will have a lot of turnovers here. They have committed a lot of careless turnovers this year, and UNC Greensboro has been great at forcing turnovers so far this year. 

Five of UNC Greensboro's last six games against Division I opponents have finished at 126 points or less.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The College of Charleston defense was dominating a few years ago, but it is now worse than an average defense. Charleston is especially weak down low. Synergy Sports numbers show this is a team who ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the country in low post defense. Delaware has a quality forward in Justyn Mutts who should take advantage of that defense.

Delaware is 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Blue Hens picked up a huge transfer in Nate Darling and he is shooting 42% from 3 point range. This is a balanced offense for Delaware.

Delaware is a bottom 100 defensive team in the country. The Blue Hens aren't likely to have any answer for Grant Riller and this quality Charleston offense. 

I see both teams getting a lot of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Drexel Dragons have been awful defensively for three years in a row. There are 10 teams in the CAA. Drexel has finished 9th, 10th, and 9th in defensive efficiency in the last three years. So far this year Drexel's defensive numbers look a bit better, but they have played the 301st toughest slate of offenses (very easy). Their defensive numbers will get much worse.

UNC Wilmington has consistently been one of the fastest paced teams in the league. When Drexel was 9th out of 10 in defensive efficiency last year, it was UNC Wilmington sitting in 10th. The Seahawks play some terrible defense. 

Look for both teams to want to run here, and this is a pretty low total for a preferred fast pace with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have played 11 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this posted total. Fordham ranks 326th in the nation in tempo. The Rams are 325th in offensive efficiency. They are good at forcing turnovers, but are very poor at shooting the basketball.

Coppin State likes to play fast, but Fordham is generally very good at controlling the pace. Coppin State is 326th in offensive efficiency in the nation. 

Both of these teams are far better defensively than offensively. There should be a lot of wasted possessions on both ends of the floor in this game. 

I had this game lined at 129, so I'm happy to get this under in the mid 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Siena Saints have decided to push the pace under new coach Carm Marciello this year. Siena is 112th in average possession length so far this year. Holy Cross is also playing much quicker this year under Brett Nelson. They are at 144th in average possession length.

Siena has played some good defensive teams this year. Holy Cross is terrible on defense. Holy Cross ranks 345th in defensive efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. The Crusaders have allowed 80 points or more in 8 of their 12 games.

Siena gets to the line at a good rate, and Holy Cross fouls frequently. The Saints should do damage at the line.

Both coaches have had to play several teams who slow the game down and encourage their teams to push the pace. Now, they get to play another team who is speeding things up.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Northeastern Huskies are very efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th in effective field goal percentage offense in the country (353 teams). The Huskies scored 73 and 72 points on Towson last year. Towson is a similar defense as they were a year ago.

Towson has improved on offense compared to a year ago. The Tigers were 255th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 147th so far this year. 

Northeastern was 151st in defensive efficiency a year ago. So far this year the Huskies are an ugly 258th in defensive efficiency. That is despite playing the 289th toughest slate (very weak) of offenses.

This total has been set a few points short.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since it was selected Friday evening. I would rate this a 4 star play up to 134.5 and a 3 star play up to 136* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers push the tempo. Georgia State ranks 39th in overall tempo so far this year. Georgia State is shooting 39.9% from 3 point range as well. The Panthers have a lot of good spot up shooting options.

SMU is much better now that Kendric Davis was cleared to play. Davis is probably the best player on the team. He started at TCU and transferred over here. Davis is 20/20 from the free throw line thus far, and he is both capable of scoring and facilitating for others. 

Georgia State has a glaring weakness on the defensive glass. They rank 330th in defensive rebounding percentage. That is a bad weakness to have against SMU. SMU is 8th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. How bad is Georgia State on the defensive glass? Duke got 30 offensive rebounds against them! Georgetown also racked up 20 offensive boards against Georgia State. SMU ranks almost exactly tied with both of them in offensive rebounding percentage. Look for a lot of second chance opportunities and trips to the line. SMU is shooting 77.8% from the free throw line.

Georgia State should be able to hang in this game, and I could see this one being a foul fest late because of the margin.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets aren't the same team without guard Jose Alvarado. Alvarado is the engine that runs this offense. Without him, Georgia Tech is getting some terrible looks offensively. Georgia Tech has scored 53 and 47 points in their last two games. The Yellow Jackets were embarrassed in their last game at home against Ball State. I think Georgia Tech likely shows up with a strong defensive effort here (they are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation), but this offense is very weak.

Boise State doesn't foul much at all, and they don't give up many second chance opportunities to opponents. The Broncos offense has been very inconsistent this year.

This game is played on a neutral court at the Stan Sherrif Center in Hawaii. This has been a pretty good under gym in the long run.

I had this one a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers rank 342nd in the nation in tempo. Duquesne is 286th in average possession length. This should be a game played at an extremely slow pace. 

UAB ranks 269th in effective field goal percentage, and that is despite playing a weak slate of defenses so far this year. The Blazers rely on offensive rebounds, and Duquesne is 38th in defensive rebounding.

Both of these teams have been excellent at defending without fouling. 

This game is played on a neutral court which is a positive for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game where BYU is a huge favorite. BYU has shown the tendency to be happy to slow down a game with a big lead. They are likely to have a large lead here and that should help us.

Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said he wanted to completely change the style of play for his team this year. They were in the top 20 in tempo last year. He didn't like them playing that fast. Weber State has slowed all the way down to 282nd this year. They are trying to play only in the halfcourt.

Unders with a large spread and a total that isn't low have been strong in the past decade. We'll take one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys rank 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have really played some shutdown defense so far this year. Oklahoma State has played the 46th toughest slate of offenses, so it isn't from them just locking down bad offenses. This Cowboys team is playing some really good defense, and they are mixing up some man and zone defenses.

Minnesota is a solid 68th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 25th toughest slate of offenses in the country so far this year. The Golden Gophers are 261st out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. They are playing quite a bit slower without Amir Coffey in the backcourt pushing the pace this year. Minnesota is looking to win games in the halfcourt more often than not.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. Both of these defenses have been far more consistent than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coach Richie Riley has talked about wanting his team to play quicker. Against Coastal Carolina, they'll get their chance to speed up the tempo. Coastal Carolina is averaging playing at a blistering pace of 76 possessions in their last five games. The Chanticleers want to run early and often.

Coastal Carolina has had some trouble with teams who are good at forcing turnovers, but South Alabama ranks in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in forced turnover percentage. Coastal Carolina excels at getting second chance points, and South Alabama is weak on the defensive boards. 

Both of these teams have been getting to the line frequently, and both teams shoot the ball well from the free throw line. This should be a tight game, and overtime and a foul fest are both real possibilities.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners push the pace as much as they can. UTSA ranks 35th in the nation in tempo. UTSA is 143rd in offensive efficiency, but they are only 289th in defensive efficiency. UTSA has had 7 of their 11 games finish at 151 points or higher so far this year.

Illinois State is a rare team from the MVC who wants to push the pace. Illinois State does use a zone defense at times, but UTSA has been great against the zone defense.

I have this number at 150 and strongly leaned to the over last night, with the line drop I'm taking the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears slow the game down. Missouri State looks to use the shot clock up and then execute their play in the last 10 or 12 seconds of the shot clock. Part of the reason they play this way is because this team has had so much trouble with turnovers offensively. Even playing slower, they rank 327th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. The Bears play slow and they aren't all that efficient because of their turnovers.

Oral Roberts has tended to try to speed the game up when they are playing against weaker opponents. They have had some very high scores this year, but those have been against the likes of Houston Baptist and Chicago State. Those are two of the very fastest (Houston Baptist is the fastest) paced teams in the country, and they are both bad at defense. 

Missouri State has slowed down the pace against LSU and Buffalo already this year. I think they'll get the pace they want here as well.

I had this game lined at 133, so I'm happy to grab the under at this price.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have completely changed the way they play this year. Give Brad Underwood credit for realizing that their previous aggressive style of trapping teams for the whole shot clock was getting them in too much foul trouble and giving up too many easy looks by the bucket. 

Underwood picked up a huge recruit in 7'0 290 lbs Kofi Cockburn. He is a presence in the lane on defense and the Fighting Illini are relying on him heavily. Illinois ranked 338th (15th worst) in the country in fouls committed last year. They have committed the fewest fouls per field goal attempt this year of anyone in the country. 

Illinois ranked 52nd in tempo last year, but they are all the way down to 198th this year. Missouri always wants to play slow. The Tigers are 280th in tempo.

Missouri has only had one game all season go over this total. The Tigers are excellent on defense, but their shooting percentages are ugly.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot on offense.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has played 11 games so far this year. Only 3 of those have gone past 136 points total. In fact, five of their games have finished at 124 points or lower already this year. Morehead State ranks 297th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Eagles are shooting only 59.4% from the free throw line. Morehead State also plays slowly (272nd in average possession length out of 353). 

Ohio is 303rd in average possession length, so they tend to move even slower than Morehead State. The Bobcats are the better team, and they will likely win this game. Ohio has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year, and they still have above average defensive numbers on the season.

I think this one stays in the low 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen rank as the second slowest paced team in the country so far this year. They have only been faster than the Virginia Cavaliers. In eight games against Division I opponents, Navy has played four games that have finished at 105 points or less in regulation. Mount St. Mary's has been held to 51 points or fewer three times already this year. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 316th in overall tempo, so they aren't likely to try to push the issue here either. While their defensive numbers don't look great, they have faced a schedule of strong offenses thus far and have clearly improved defensively from a year ago.

Navy is 316th in effective field goal percentage offense. Mt. St. Mary's is 318th in that same statistic. I wouldn't expect good shooting numbers here.

With a slow pace and two weak offenses, I expect to see a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a lot of talent this year. Coastal Carolina's DeVante Jones is a sensational sophomore who can score in bunches. Coastal Carolina has scored 90 points or more in four straight games coming into this one. The Chanticleers are 110th in tempo in the nation. 

Scott Cross is the new coach at Troy, and Cross has always been a guy who wants his teams to play quickly. Troy slowed things down last year, but they are beginning to play a little quicker under Cross this season. 

These defenses are very weak. Coastal Carolina ranks 255th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 273rd toughest slate of offenses (weak schedule). Troy ranks 287th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 282nd toughest slate of offenses.

Two bad defenses and two teams who prefer to play uptempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Toyota Center which is a huge venue and it is has been a great under venue. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 games played here. 

Utah State's defense got a huge boost with Neemas Queta returning to the lineup. The Aggies look amazing on offense so far this year. They are clearly good on offense, but they have played the 46th easiest slate of defenses thus far. They face an excellent USF defense here.

USF is third in the nation in forced turnover percentage. This team is 68th in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are 301st in the nation in overall tempo. USF has had 7 of their 10 games finish at 124 points or lower this season.

On a neutral floor that has been tough for shooters, I like value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UIC has ranked in the top 68 in the country in tempo in each of the last three seasons. The Flames started the season playing very slow this year, but they have had a couple very fast paced games recently. 

Illinois State is playing fairly quick as well. The Redbirds have also been far more efficient on offense this year, and they have been worse on defense this year than the last few seasons.

Four of UIC's last five games have finished with a tempo of at least 73 possessions. This is an extremely low total considering the pace this game should be played at. The spread here is at a fouling distance and that is helpful as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes play at a very slow pace under Coach John Dunne. Marist was 323rd in overall tempo last year. They are 343rd (out of 353) in overall tempo this year. Marist was solid offensively last year, but they are very weak on the offensive end this season. The Red Foxes went from 102nd last year to 314th this year in effective field goal percentage offense. They very rarely get offensive rebounds. They also draw very few fouls, and when they do get to the line they shoot free throws at a horrible 58.6% clip.

The New Hampshire Wildcats were 353rd out of 353 teams in the nation last year in offensive efficiency. They have improved to a measly 311th this year. New Hampshire though has played the 23rd easiest slate of defenses in the country so far this year. 

Marist and New Hampshire played last year and the final was 58-49. 

Marist has only had 2 of their first 7 games go over this number in regulation. Additionally, 4 of their 7 games have finished at 114 total points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves are 19th in the nation in average length of possession (least amount of shot clock used). Pepperdine has wanted to go fast all year, and they have done a nice job of forcing teams to play their style.

Portland State wants to play extremely fast under Coach Peery. The Vikings are 81st in average length of possession. Portland State uses a full court press often to try to get steals and quick buckets. 

Both of these teams give up all kinds of second chance points. Look for there to be a lot of extra shots at the hoop from offensive rebounds in this one. These teams rank 300th in defensive rebounding and 322nd.

Pepperdine stands out as the top free throw shooting team in the country. That's important for a couple reasons. First, Portland State fouls a bunch because they press so much. The Vikings fouled about as much as anyone in the country the last two seasons. Second, Pepperdine is favored here by 8 points. If the Waves are up by single digits late, we could see a lot of points late in the game from the foul fest scenario. Pepperdine's 4 best players all shoot at least 83% from the free throw line.

This should be a track meet. Barring some ugly shooting numbers I think this one gets into the upper 160's at a minimum.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I waited for this line to drop and it did. We have seen a two point drop from last night. Stetson has been a good under team and UNC Asheville has been a good over team this year. 

UNC Asheville is favored here, and I do think they are the better team. Asheville does a great job forcing the tempo. They are 37th in the nation in overall pace of play. Asheville has several good scoring options especially at the guard positions. 

UNC Asheville's defense is terrible. They rank 350th in the nation (353 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. Stetson's defense isn't much better. Stetson ranks 289th in effective field goal percentage defense and an ugly 342nd in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have gotten a lot of offensive rebounds this year, and I would expect a lot of putback opportunities and free throw attempts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers were 106th in average possession length last year. They are 305th so far this year. A significant slowdown by Pitt. They are now playing in the halfcourt and winning with their strong defense. Coach Capel has done a good job getting this team to buy into his defensive system. Pitt ranks 61st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Northern Illinois lost Levi Bradley and Dante Thorpe from last year's team, and those were their best play makers on offense. The Huskies were 86th in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 217th in offensive efficiency so far this year. That is despite the fact they have played the 309th toughest slate of defenses (very weak) so far this season. 

Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both teams want to play slowly. Northern Illinois has seen 6 of their 9 games against Division I opponents finish below this posted total. Pitt has seen 6 of their 10 stay under this number.

The number has risen to the point that I have to bet the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been pretty impressive so far this year. Kent is clearly much better on the defensive end than they were last year. They also look much better on offense, but I don't think that part will continue. Kent State is 86th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they have faced the 26th easiest schedule of defenses in the country (out of 353). They have only faced one team (Ohio State) in the top 150 in effective field goal percentage defense. 
UC Irvine is 27th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Anteaters always work very hard on defense for coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine tends to prefer to slow the game down a bit as well.
Kent State's defense has given everyone they have played this year quite a bit of trouble. They were actually tied with Ohio State with 10:30 left in the game before Ohio State went on a big run to close the game.
This game is played at a neutral site (El Paso Texas). This is at altitude and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in these conditions.
Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have played an extremely easy schedule so far this year. Liberty hasn't played a single team all year ranked in the top 170 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. That changes here against Vanderbilt. The Commodores rank 11th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Vanderbilt has also done their best to push the tempo. The Commodores rank 120th in the country in pace. This is an extremely low total for a game with one team who plays quickly.

Liberty's offense ranks 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Flames have been able to get to the free throw line at the 11th highest rate of any team in the country. Liberty has multiple good shooters on the floor at all times.

Vanderbilt has only had one game finish under 137 points in regulation this year. This total has been bet down to the point where I see value on the over. Last year when these two teams met the final total was 149 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank as the fastest paced team in the country (out of 353 teams) when it comes to average possession length. Green Bay has played a bunch of teams who try to slow the game down so far this year. Green Bay has played only one team who ranks in the top half of teams in the country in tempo this year. That was their game against New Mexico that was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions.

Evansville ranks 62nd in average possession length, and I don't expect them to try to slow the game down. The Purple Aces have been doing a good job spreading the floor and getting open looks for their outside shooters.

Green Bay is much improved offensively, and they are much worse defensively this year. The Phoenix rank 347th in the nation out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of defense combined with the tempo they play will make for some extremely high scoring games. Six of their last nine games have gone over this total.

Look for an extremely fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks are really buying into Eric Musselman's defensive system so far this year. Musselman wanted to instill a defensive philosophy first with this program and thus far it has worked out nicely. 

Arkansas ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Razorbacks have allowed more than 61 points only once all season! 

Tulsa plays a lot of zone defense and slows down the pace. Tulsa lost their playmakers on offense from last year, and their efficiency on that end of the floor won't be very good this season. 

Tulsa is 34th in effective field goal percentage defense on the season. This is a team that has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 58 points or less.

Look for open shots to be difficult to come by in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are similar teams. Both of them lost their top scoring options from last year. These are two teams led by a coach that is defensive-minded. Last year, both of these teams were better on offense than they have been in any recent year. Neither of them will be as good on offense this year. 

Kansas State isn't even close to the same on offense without Dean Wade, Barry Brown, and Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have played a very weak schedule this year so far, but they are still only 183rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Mississippi State has yet to play a team in the top 75 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 18th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bulldogs are without their top bucket getters (Weatherspoon and Peters) from last year as well.

I would expect a slow pace when these two meet. This game is also played at a neutral site, and it starts at 11:30 am eastern. Those are positives for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs used 17.0 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. This team has far less offensive talent this year, especially at the guard positions. Head Coach Justin Hutson uses a full court press quite a bit to try to slow the game down. It is a zone press that controls the tempo. 

Cal is playing much slower under new coach Mark Fox. Fox is definitely a defensive-minded coach. Cal has knocked down a lot of 3's so far this year, but they have played the 205th toughest slate of defenses on the season. Fresno State's defense should give them trouble. 

With neither team looking to run and both teams short on offensive weapons, I think this one stays low scoring. With the move up today, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina State Bulldogs have more offensive ability than they did a year ago. South Carolina State has Tashombe Riley back in the fold this year, and he put up 20 points in their win over Presbyterian last game. They also have a couple good low post scorers in Applewhite and Kinard. 

South Carolina State has ugly offensive numbers thus far, but they have faced three teams in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom (Memphis, Liberty, and Tulsa). Now, they face a UNC Asheville team who ranks 351st in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UNC Asheville can't play defense, but they are forcing the issue and they can score. They were 350th in tempo last year, but are 66th in tempo so far this year. Asheville is good at getting to the basket and the SC State defense has ranked 340th or worse in 2 point field goal percentage defense in three straight years! 

Also important is the fact that both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. There should be a lot of second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen take on the Yale Bulldogs here. UMass lost their star scorer from a year ago in Pipkins. This is a UMass offense that I believe will have some trouble scoring against top defenses this year. They just don't have enough scoring options. Yale ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Yale is controlling the tempo this year. They are 274th in tempo overall and 318th in average possession length. They will look to slow this game down. 

Rutgers was able to hold UMass to 57 points, and the Yale defense ranks better than them overall. 

Yale's offensive efficiency has dropped quite a bit from last year. They lost their top two offensive players from last season. UMass has more athleticism and should gradually improve on defense this year. 

I lined this game a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played 10 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. This is a team with a lot of offensive weaknesses, but they are very strong defensively. Little Rock has faced the 97th toughest schedule of offenses this year, and they are still ranked 113th in defensive efficiency. That's excellent for a Sun Belt level team. 

Little Rock is 253rd in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are 341st in turnover percentage. An alarming 24.9% of their offensive possessions end in a turnover. 

Tennessee State ranks 340th in turnover percentage on offense. The Tigers have seen 24.8% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers. The Tigers haven't played good defenses this year, and this is a big test for their offense. 

Little Rock has slowed their pace down drastically this year. The Trojans were 55th in pace of play last year, but they are 260th so far this year. I think they are the better team and I expect them to control the tempo. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have an excellent defense. Louisville has only allowed more than 62 points once in their last eight games. They have held their last two opponents (Michigan and Pittsburgh) to 43 and 46 points. This is a Cardinals team with all kinds of athleticism, and opponents just aren't getting clean looks at the hoop against them. Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.853 points per possession. 

Texas Tech is always going to be a defense first team as long as Chris Beard is their coach. Beard is a tremendous coach, and he gets his players to buy into this defensive system. If you don't work extremely hard on defense, you won't see the floor on his team. Texas Tech is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Texas Tech's offensive numbers aren't very good this year, and they have played one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses on the year. They face an elite defense in this one.

Jahmius Ramsey is questionable with an injury for the Red Raiders, and he is key to their offense. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. There isn't a more proven under arena in all of college basketball. The shooting backdrop is tough here, and the under has dominated in games at MSG.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls haven't played a game higher than 145 points all year. In fact, all but one of their games has finished with 135 points or less. Temple's new coach Aaron McKie said from day one this team was going to be all about defense. So far, he has been right. Temple is 19th in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They were 164th last season. 

St. Joe's is missing Taylor Funk (out with an injury) more than I thought they would. Funk averaged 9.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Ryan Daly has to do too much without Funk in the lineup. Daly has 23, 25, and 32 points in the three games since Funk was injured. Daly is a pretty good scorer, but he isn't a guy you would want carrying your team all the time. There just isn't a good second option for St. Joe's. I think Temple's excellent defense will key in on Daly and make things difficult for him.

St. Joe's has been extremely inefficient in three straight games. Those games were against three teams that rank as average or worse in effective field goal percentage defense. Temple is elite on defense. The Hawks should have a hard time scoring.

Temple's offense ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Owls have scored more than 70 points only once this year. They'll likely top 70 here, but they aren't usually efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in the nation in quickest tempo based on their average possession length. Iowa State is averaging 73.6 possessions in their games. Seton Hall is 95th in pace of play. They are averaging 71.3 possessions in their games. 

These two teams just met on a neutral site and the final was 84-76 Seton Hall. That game was played on a floor that is a tough gym for shooters. There were only 24 free throws total in that game. 

This game should be played at a very quick pace again. This is at a normal location and the total is slightly lower than it was before. That makes little sense because they cleared the number before and played to a 74 possession pace. I expect a similar pace and this one should go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies are 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They now play an excellent Texas Longhorns defense. Texas is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is a solid 78th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have struggled at times with turnovers on the offensive end. I would expect a pretty sloppy game here.

This game is played on a neutral court which is helpful for the under. I strongly considered playing this one last night, and now the line has risen by 1.5 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks want to run whenever they have the chance. South Carolina is 24th quickest out of 353 teams in the country when it comes to average possession length. The Gamecocks can sometimes struggle from the floor, but they excel at getting to the line. Houston fouls a lot because they are so aggressive on defense. 

Houston is 110th in average possession length so they are playing pretty fast as well. The Cougars have played four teams who try to stall in their first six opponents. Against both Rice and Houston Baptist they were happy to turn the game into a track meet. 

Both teams excel at getting second chance opportunities. Both teams are also great at getting to the line. Both defenses foul a lot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Yale is excellent defensively this year. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played in consistently low scoring games this year. Yale hasn't had a game higher than 144 points in regulation, which shows their games totals upside is limited. Yale has played 7 of 10 games so far this year under this total. In fact, 6 of their 10 games have finished with 124 points or less. 

Yale is doing a great job controlling the tempo this year. The Bulldogs rank 315th in average possession length this season. Yale is forcing opponents to play their style of basketball and that is allowing them to win with defense.

Lehigh was a fast paced team the last couple years, but they are playing much slower this year. Lehigh ranks 262nd out of 353 in average possession length. Lehigh lost their two best players from last year and their offense has been really inefficient this year. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team has gotten to the line much this season.

I had this game several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have decided to play a completely different style of play this year. The Bulldogs stalled last year because they didn't have enough depth or talent. Asheville's coach Mike Morrell said before the year they would look to push the pace this year. They have the guard quickness and much improved depth to do it. They have definitely been running. Asheville ranks 64th in overall tempo so far this year. They have only scored less than 79 points in one game (against Tennessee). 

Western Carolina ranks 62nd in overall tempo. The Catamounts ranked 335th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have improved some this year, but they have played a bunch of weak offensive teams. I think Asheville's offense will really test them here.

Asheville's defense is terrible. The Bulldogs are 350th out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. Western Carolina is pretty efficient offensively and they should be able to take advantage.

Both teams get to the line a lot and foul a lot. Both teams also get a lot of second chance opportunities on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped to where I have value on the over. I considered this one last night, and the line has dropped quite a bit. Both of these teams are very efficient on offense. Northeastern's motion offense under Coen is tremendous. Davidson's offense under McKillop is very strong as well. These are two coaches many other coaches try to copy on the offensive end because they have run such good offense for years.

Davidson is mediocre defensively and Northeastern is bad on defense. Both teams should get open looks here. 

The spread is 1.5 and overtime is always possible in a spot like this as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks rank 15th in the nation in overall pace of play. They are moving extremely quickly under first year coach Billy Lange. St. Joe's is extremely bad on the defensive end though. The Hawks allowed 82 points against a weak offense in Old Dominion. They allowed 79 points against St. Francis (PA). They allowed 94 points against Lafayette. They allowed 85 points against Loyola Chicago. They now must take on the best offense they have faced this year. Villanova is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Villanova shoots 40.2% from 3 point range. They should get a lot of open looks against a St. Joe's defense that ranks 343rd out of 353 in the nation in 3 point defense. Villanova is 90th in average possession length this year. They have sped up in a big way. If they want to play fast this is a great opportunity for them to do that. Villanova has scored 97 and 98 points already this year. Expect another big number here.

St. Joe's gets up a lot of 3's, and Nova hasn't been good at guarding beyond the arc. Look for the Hawks to find some open looks from long range.

The tempo here should be extremely quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas rank 4th in the nation in tempo so far this year. Central Michigan has consistently wanted to push the tempo over the past few seasons. This team will do the same again this season. The Chippewas have scored over 100 points in four games already this year. It wouldn't be stunning if they scored 100 here either. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 353rd out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. They rank 353rd in effective field goal percentage defense as well. They are consistently terrible too. Martin was 351st in that category last year as well. This is an awful defense. 

UT Martin doesn't turn the ball over much. They are also great on the offensive glass. They'll get second chance points against a Central Michigan team that has been very weak on the defensive boards in recent seasons. Central Michigan also ranks in the top 75 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UT Martin is weak on the defensive glass. A lot of second chance points for both teams.

I don't normally take overs this high, but my number is several points higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said before this season that he felt he tried to do something he just wasn't comfortable with last year when he had his team push the pace to the extreme. They are going back to slowing things down this year. The oddsmakers are trying to adjust, but I don't think this number is low enough.

Weber State has been unfortunate on defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 82% from the free throw line against them. Opponents are also shooting 44.1% from long range. They have played some good shooting teams early in the year. These numbers can't be sustained.

Utah Valley has struggled with offensive efficiency under Mark Madsen, but this team is working hard on the defensive end. They have already had four games finish at 130 points or less on the year. 

This is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have changed the way they play this year. Yale was a fast paced team who could score in bunches last year with Miye Oni and Alex Copeland leading the way. Yale lost those top two players from a year ago, and James Jones decided this season the Bulldogs needed to hang their hat on their strong defense. 

Yale ranks 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. The Bulldogs have held Penn State to 58 points. They also held Vermont to 52 points. Yale ranks 274th in overall tempo this year compared to 41st a year ago.

Albany has almost always preferred to play slowly under Coach Will Brown. Albany is again playing slower than average this year. Albany hasn't played a team ranked better than 121st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Yale ranks 6th and is far and away the best defense they have faced. 

Both Albany and Yale are good on the defensive glass and have done a nice job defending without fouling this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are coached by first year coach Jamion Christian. He coached at Siena last year where his team finished 353rd (last in the country) in average possession length. George Washington isn't playing quite that slow, but they are looking to slow things down. 

Boston University has typically played to the pace of their opponent. Boston University's defensive tendencies should help out here. They have been better at guarding the 3 point shot than the inside shots under Joe Jones, and George Washington settles for a lot of 3's. 

Both of these teams have been poor at getting offensive rebounds. There shouldn't be many second chance scoring opportunities here.

I think this one should be around 130.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs aren't the same team they were last year. Asheville had to stall and try to keep games as low scoring as possible last year. Mike Morell is in his second year on the job here, and he made it clear he wanted his team to play much faster this year. Asheville is deeper and has more offensive weapons than they did a year ago. Asheville is still very weak defensively though.

Charlotte generally likes to play slowly, but the 49ers have shot the ball better than a year ago. The 49ers shoot better than 78% from the free throw line, and that could be key here since Asheville ranks in the top 20 in the country in fouling. 

Look for their to be enough pace here to get this one over the number based on Asheville's new style of play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Crusaders were 304th in average possession length last year (out of 353 teams). Valpo was a bottom 50 tempo team thanks in large part due to all kinds of major injuries to their leading scorers a year ago. They had to slow down to stay in games.

Matt Lottich said before the season he wanted the Crusaders to play quicker. They have played much faster so far this year. Valpo is 56th out of 353 in average possession length this year. They played fast two years ago too, so it seems like this is a return to their old normal under Lottich. 

The Crusaders have yet to have a game this year finish under this number. Only one has finished below 143 points.

Eastern Michigan hasn't played against a team who ranks in the top 50% of the country in terms of pace all year thus far. That will change here. Eastern Michigan has been making a living at the free throw line on offense. The Eagles have had major trouble rebounding out of their matchup zone in the past. Valpo has been good on the offensive glass this year. 

With Valpo pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line a lot, I like the over at this low number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins were 11th in average possession length last year. They have been a really fast paced team for quite some time until this season. This year UCLA ranks 320th in average possession length. The Bruins have a new coach in Mick Cronin and he is working to install a completely different style of play.

UCLA has consistently played the slow pace this year, even when they are up against weaker opponents. The Bruins didn't even try to push the tempo against Chaminade in their recent trip to the Maui Invitational. 

UCLA has been hurt by teams who shoot the ball really well from outside. San Jose State is their opponent here, and San Jose State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans are shooting 23.1% from 3 point range on the season. San Jose State relies heavily on getting second chances from their big men grabbing offensive rebounds. UCLA is a great defensive rebounding team.

San Jose State scored just 39 points against Arizona. The Spartans scored only 48 points against Oregon State.

UCLA should control this game and that should help the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders have picked up the pace in a big way so far this season. MTSU was 176th in average possession length last year. The Blue Raiders are 19th so far this season. They have yet to have a game played at anything less than 71 possessions. They are forcing the pace in a big way.

Belmont wants to run under new coach Casey Alexander. The Bruins have already played a game at 78 possessions and another at 80 possessions. Alexander is known as a tremendous offensive mind, and the Bruins should get a lot of open looks against a bad MTSU defense. 

MTSU allowed 93 points against Coastal Carolina. They also allowed 86 points against Tulane. Belmont is a better team than those two on the offensive end.

With both teams wanting to run and both offenses holding the advantage here, I expect to see a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes rank first in the nation in average possession length this year. The Dukes were 313th last year. Coach Rowe said before the season they were going to be much faster, and they have followed through with that tempo change in a big way.

East Carolina has yet to play a team that runs even close to as much as James Madison. In fact, East Carolina has played Liberty, Navy, and some other teams who play great defense and play very slowly. That has made their totals look pretty low heading into this game. That gives us some extra value here. The Pirates have typically played to the pace of their opponent.

Look for an up and down game where both teams score a lot. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Missouri State Redhawks lost several of their top offensive players from last year. The Redhawks rank 276th in offensive efficiency so far this year, and they have played two teams who rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is likely to struggle on offense. 

Cal State Fullerton lost their top two scorers from a year ago. Ahmad and Allman took more than half of the team's shots last year and they ran the offense and led the team. Fullerton always works hard on the defensive end for Coach Taylor, but they have been inconsistent on offense. They should be worse on offense this year now that their stars are gone. In their four games against Division I opponents, Fullerton has yet to top 60 points this season! 

This is a neutral site game which is a plus for the under. 

Look for some sloppy basketball between two teams who turn it over a lot and don't have great scoring options.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* New Mexico State is 347th in average length of possession (353 teams). The Aggies take a bunch of time off the shot clock. New Mexico State's first two games in this tournament have had 120 points in regulation and 110 points. They are up against George Mason, who is 284th in the nation in tempo. 

George Mason is 185th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 71st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that is much better on defense than offense.

New Mexico State always ranks highly in defense as well.

This game is at a neutral site and both teams are playing for the 3rd straight day. A clear plus for the under. 

Take the under.