Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have played four games against Division One teams this year. The highest scoring game of those finished at 131 points. One of the games finished at 129 combined points after an overtime. MTSU is consistently playing excellent defense and settling for a lot of poor mid range jumpers on offense. 

UIC is getting better defensively under defensive minded coach Luke Yaklich. UIC has an elite shot blocker down low in Toby Okani. The Flames have been busy playing teams who want to run which has skewed their totals higher in the early going. Now, they play a team who wants to slow things down and turn it into a halfcourt battle.

An early season neutral site game- these have skewed under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been knocked down several points, and I'm going to side with the over.

Jacksonville is playing much faster than they did a year ago. They played a 70 possession game and put up 85 points against GA Southern. 

Robert Morris put up a respectable 68 points in a loss to defensive minded Wisconsin. The Colonials went under this total by one point against Towson, but Towson is among the five slowest teams in the country.

Both teams are bad on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities could be crucial in this one. They both foul a lot as well. Both teams shoot a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions have slowed their pace down drastically this year. SE Louisiana is 328th in the nation in average possession length. Last year they were 79th. SE Louisiana was able to slow down a very fast paced Santa Clara team in their last game.

Western Michigan has to slow the pace down consistently. The Broncos just don't have a good enough offense to win many high scoring contests. W Michigan is 332nd in the nation in average possession length.

This game is being played at Northwest Florida State College Arena as part of a neutral site tournament. This has been a good venue for unders in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats are a good offense, but their offensive numbers are skewed a bit right now because of who they have faced. Arizona has played three teams outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense. They have only played one good defense this year and that was Duke. Duke is 73rd in effective field goal percentage defense. Michigan State is much better at 7th. 

The Spartans block a lot of shots and really defend the paint well. Michigan State is 200th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Spartans aren't going to be able to get easy looks against a very tall Arizona team either. Arizona is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Michigan State is likely to want to slow this game down. They are 329th in tempo this year. Arizona will try to run. I think Arizona's transition offense will be less efficient in this one than they have been the rest of the year.

This is a neutral court that is usually a hockey arena. That is long term a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see a lot of paths pointing to a lot of points being scored in this game. Tulane is great at forcing the tempo of the game. The Green Wave are 24th quickest in the country in average possession length. Tulane has been great at getting to the free throw line every year under Ron Hunter. Cal just put UTEP on the line 37 times yesterday, and the Golden Bears are likely to commit a lot of fouls in this one.

Cal is an average paced team on offense. They have played several teams who like to stall, but they are up against a very quick paced team today. One of Cal's biggest strengths is getting second chance points off the offensive rebounds. Tulane is a very weak rebounding team.

This line has moved down because it is a neutral floor game, but I think it has moved down too much. Neither defense is all that good, and the offenses have key advantages.

Take the over. 

*Note- I would bet this as high as 155 if it goes up.* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are now coached by Jack Castleberry. He promised before the season to keep this program playing at a very fast pace. He has kept his program thus far. The Knights have played at the 7th fastest pace of any team in the country. Castleberry not only coached under Tobin Anderson, but he also was an assistant at The Citadel under the ultra fast paced Duggar Baucom. This team should keep running and gunning. Their big weakness on defense is not being able to grab defensive rebounds. 

Queens always wants to run. They have played four teams in a row who play at an average or slower pace. That has kept their scores down of late. They now face a team who also wants to run and play very quick. Queens is only shooting 29.8% from 3 point range, and they shot 34.8% from 3 last year. I think their shooting numbers will improve in time.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors have slowed down their pace to just 328th in the country in overall tempo. Austin Peay ranks 350th out of 362 teams in shot selection so far this year. They are taking a bunch of bad jump shots. They are living in the mid range contested jumper area so far this season.

Sacramento State is 244th in shot selection. The Hornets are 293rd in overall tempo this year, and Coach Patrick has consistently had his teams play very slowly.

I don't think either team wants to run in this one. Both teams turn it over a bunch so I see a lot of wasted possessions. 

This is a neutral floor game played early in the day. That has been a bonus for under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix have turned every game into a halfcourt sloppy game this year. Green Bay is stalling to the max right now. Green Bay is 359th out of 362 in average possession length. 

The UC Riverside Highlanders are consistently a slow paced team that is better on the defensive end than the offensive end under Mike Magpayo. They have finished in the bottom 50 in average possession length each season with him as coach.

This is a neutral site game and these early season neutral site games have skewed toward the under in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under with FIU isn't necessarily a comfortable experience, but I think this one is set a little too high given the circumstances.

This is a neutral site game being played in the Cayman Islands. Neutral site games have trended under in the long run, and early tipoff times (11 am eastern here) have trended stronger to the under than the rest of the neutral site games. 

FIU does play quickly, but they don't shoot the ball well. FIU was 213th in offensive efficiency last year and they are 233rd so far this year. 

Loyola Marymount is a slightly slower than average paced team. Loyola has had some high games this year because opponents have been shooting lights out from 3. Loyola's 3 point defense the last few years has been much better than they've started this year. FIU has been very weak from 3 point range the last few years too.

Early start with a really high total. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Commerce Lions are 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Stonehill ranks 335th in that same number. 

Stonehill has given up massive points against St. Joe's, UConn, and Kentucky in their last three games. Texas A&M Commerce and their weak offense are unlikely to put up a big number. Stonehill's recent games being so high against very good fast paced teams has inflated this number too much in my opinion. Stonehill played one slower paced team (Army) and it was 57-44 in that game.

Texas A&M Commerce is 307th in average possession length, so they are looking to slow the game down. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 332nd in the nation in tempo. Marty Simmons has his teams wanting to slow the pace down year after year. They have to slow things down a ton right now because they just don't have any go to scorers. Eastern Illinois struggled to a 48-46 win over Coppin State yesterday.

Miami Ohio is a medium paced team that has shot the ball better than expected so far this year. The Redhawks do slow the pace when they have the lead and they are clear favorites here.

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars rank 329th in the country in tempo. The SIU Edwardsville Cougars rank 353rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. 

SIU Edwardsville has gradually gotten better on defense every year in the last three seasons. This team is focused on slowing the game down and winning with defense. They were 129th, 102nd, and now 73rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Three of their four games against Division I teams this year have finished 118 points or lower.

South Alabama has played multiple teams that want track meets which has made their games higher scoring. This is the slowest opponent they have played yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Utah Valley has a new coach this year in Todd Phillips. They have slowed their pace quite a bit so far this year. The Wolverines are 228th in effective field goal percentage offense and 30th in defense. 

Southern Miss is a medium paced team. The Golden Eagles do take a lot of bad mid range jumpers though. Southern Miss only put up 64 points on William Carey in a fast paced game. They scored 54 against Akron.

This is an early season neutral site game and those have been good to under bettors in the long haul.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have been very consistent at slowing the pace of the game down both last year and so far this season. Weber State is 357th in the country in average possession length so far this year. Yale is 335th in average possession length. 

This game is played on a neutral floor in Canada. If these two teams keep playing at their preferred pace, it will take either very high shooting percentages or a ref show to send this one past the posted total.

Both teams were in the top 11 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage last year. I expect second chances to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are nothing like last year's team. They were ultra fast paced last year and got into some very high scoring games. Coppin State finished last season 19th in overall tempo in the country. They are 257th so far this season. 

Coppin State is also very bad on offense. The Eagles are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have only topped 55 points one time this season. They have been held to 49 points or fewer in three of their five contests. 

Eastern Illinois plays at a slow pace coached by Marty Simmons. They are 339th in average possession length. The Panthers are 338th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that is involved in a lot of very low scoring contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from three point range in the last two seasons. They are shooting 43.9% from long range so far this year. This will regress to the mean over time. South Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. This is a team that should play quite a few lower scoring games this year once their shooting numbers dip back down.

DePaul was 67th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They have dialed back the pace quite a bit this year. The Blue Demons are 251st on the season so far. 

This is an early season neutral court game in the Bahamas. These can have tricky shooting backdrops and have trended toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Stay Play Under* Coppin State has a new coach and a completely different style of play this year. They were 19th in overall tempo last year. They are sitting at 234th in overall tempo this season so far. Coppin State is 362nd (last) in the country in offensive efficiency.

Miami are an average or slightly slower team in terms of tempo. The Redhawks are terrible on the offensive glass, which helps mitigate Coppin State's biggest weakness on defense (defensive rebounding). 

I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans are improving a lot on defense under Tim Miles. They were 79th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. So far this year, they are 39th. They also rank 315th in average possession length. They aren't in any hurry. 

Abilene Christian always has a good aggressive defense that forces a lot of turnovers. The one negative about their defense is they do foul too much. Abilene Christian's offense settles for a lot of poor jump shots.

This game is being played in the Virgin Islands at a gym where the under has done well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The William & Mary Tribe were 352nd and 284th in offensive efficiency in the last two years. They have shot the ball well in their first couple games, but this team is unlikely to be able to keep this up. They haven't played good defenses, and they have played teams who are happy to run. 

Omaha has shown they want to slow the game down even though they have been losing. The Mavericks don't want to get into a track meet here. They are 262nd in average possession length. 

This is played on a neutral court. Both teams are shooting a lot of long distance jumpers. If they are all falling this will go over, but neutral court unders early in the season have done well in the long run. The long jumpers are on average tougher to hit in a neutral site situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are 23rd in average possession length so far this season. Presbyterian has sped up significantly from a year ago. They were #285 last season. Presbyterian played two teams who aren't very  fast paced in their games too so I don't think it was a fluke. 

Presbyterian is 2-0 and it is largely because no one can make a shot against them. Opponents are shooting 21.8% from 3 point range and 41% from two point range this season. Presbyterian has been awful at defending the 3 point line in the last few seasons. In fact, they were bottom 15 in the entire country in both of the last two seasons. They were also bottom half of the country in 2 point defense. 

North Florida is excellent from 3 point range. The Ospreys have been so good from 3 that they have been called "The Birds of Trey" by some. They shoot a bunch of long range jumpers, and I think they'll make their fair share in this one. 

North Florida was 346th in defensive efficiency last year. They struggle badly on the defensive boards and offensive rebounding is a strength of Presbyterian.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Eastern Illinois and Illinois State played last year and the final was 54-49. I certainly don't expect it to be that low this time, but I think this total is quite a bit too high. 

Eastern Illinois has a bottom ten offense in the country. Marty Simmons' team just doesn't have any go to scorers. They also play at a far below average tempo. I'm not going to say their defense is good, but it is definitely better than it looks through two games. Their two opponents have been Illinois and Loyola Chicago. Both of those teams are very quick and are good offensively. 

Illinois State lost a 80-71 game played to 77 possessions against St. Louis. St. Louis is all about running. The RedBirds of Illinois State were 300th in tempo last year, and I think KenPom and others are projecting the pace too quick in this game at 72 possessions. 

Last year's game was 62 possessions. I'll try to take advantage of these two playing fast paced teams and inflating the total here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing at a much faster tempo this year under a new coach. Coach Newman has his team getting out in transition as often as possible. Northridge led for much of the game against Stanford and scored 79 points. They then put up 76 at Idaho. They will keep pushing the pace here.

Chicago State hasn't played a team in the top 125 in the nation in tempo so far this year. Northridge is 27th so this is a big tempo jump. I think the Chicago State defense will be bottom 30 or 40 in the country this year. Chicago State has a history of committing a lot of fouls. Northridge is attacking the basket and not settling for long range jumpers.

I think the pace will be enough here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were beaten down by both Alabama and Purdue. That's more than understandable. A bunch of teams are going to get crushed by those two top teams. Morehead State's defensive numbers look bad right now, but I think they'll be very solid against the mid-major teams again this year. Morehead State historically does a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't foul very often either. 

Morehead State is 338th in average possession length. The Eagles are very good at controlling the pace. Mercer is also a slow paced team. The Bears are 295th in average possession length. 

Mercer lost 71-64 to Clark Atlanta (obviously not a Division One team) in their first game and beat Chicago State 66-61 in game two. Mercer is good defensively, but on offense they have struggled to find an identity.

Last year's game between these two was played to just 60 possessions. I think we see another slow one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls should be a better offense under Coach Adam Fisher this year. Temple is going to put up more shots from long range and Fisher thinks they have the guys to shoot the ball pretty well. Temple's pace is about 5 possessions per game quicker than it was a year ago at this time. The two offenses Temple has faced are among the very worst in the country. Maryland Eastern Shore and Navy are bottom 25 offenses in the country. Temple's defense will get a bigger test here.

Drexel does a good job not turning the ball over and the Dragons are just mediocre on the defensive end. Temple has a height disadvantage and Drexel should score in the paint here.

This number has dropped to the point where I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early season matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the St. John's Red Storm. 

St. John's made a massive coaching hire in the offseason by bringing in Rick Pitino. Pitino does prefer to play quickly, but St. John's was first in tempo in the entire country last year. They certainly won't play as fast as a year ago. St. John's did score 90 points against Stony Brook in game one, but their exhibition games were pretty low scoring. They beat Rutgers 89-78 in double OT. They lost to Pace College (several guys were out in that game).

Michigan has played two teams who are really bad defensively and like to play fast. The Wolverines high scoring games in the first two contests have pushed this total upward too much. I do think Michigan can be better defensively than they were a year ago.

Madison Square Garden is the venue for this contest and it is a good under arena. Yes, I know St. John's is accustomed to playing here, but the under has hit in 64.5% of St. John's games at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team under Joe Gallo. The zone press they use is actually to slow the game down. They are really good at controlling the style of play. Merrimack takes a lot of poor shots on offense, and if they don't get a bunch of steals and quick scores it can be very tough for them to score in the halfcourt. 

Maine was 259th in tempo last year. The Black Bears do force quite a few turnovers, but they aren't good at turning them into transition points.

These two teams played a couple years ago and it was a 49-47 final. I'm not projecting this one to be that low, but I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves new coach Bryan Hodgson talked all offseason about how fast they were going to play this year. They went out and proved in game one. They did the unthinkable and played a game to 81 possessions against the Wisconsin Badgers. They lost 105-76 in that one, but the fact that they got Wisconsin to play that quickly with them is impressive.

Arkansas State now takes on Bowling Green. The Falcons have a new coach in Todd Simon. Simon's teams have routinely finished in the top 50 or 60 in tempo in the country. His teams are known for attacking the hoop and playing aggressive defense. Their opponents often get to the free throw line quite a bit. 

Look for a very quick pace in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins play strong defense under Kevin Willard. This is a top 30 defense in the country. Maryland ranked 326th in the country in tempo last year. They moved at a slow pace again in their first game earlier this week. 

Davidson is a physical team that slows the pace down as well. The Wildcats were #294 in the country in tempo. Davidson isn't likely to push the issue here against a Big Ten opponent.

This game is played on a neutral site. The Cherokee Center which is 28-17 to the under. Early netural site unders have been good in the long run in CBB.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Georgia was absolutely flying up and down the floor in their season opener against Oregon. That game played to a blistering pace of 83 possessions. Georgia couldn't hit a shot from the floor or the FT line (17/30 from the charity stripe), but I expect their shooting numbers to be better against a weak Wake Forest defense. 

Wake Forest has pushed the pace a lot the last couple seasons. The Demon Deacons put up 101 points in a win over Elon in game one. It was concerning to allow 1.03 points per possession to a bad Elon offense in that one though.

I think this one goes to 76 possessions or so and that means even mediocre shooting should put this over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames and Charlotte 49ers meet late this afternoon in Charlotte at a "neutral" court. This is at the Spectrum Center which has not been an under venue at all.

The money has come in on the under here. I do in general like neutral site unders, but this isn't a bad shooting backdrop and this number has moved too much. 

Charlotte has a new coach in Aaron Fearne. He said in the preseason they were focusing heavily on pushing the pace more this  year (they were very slow a year ago) and getting a lot more second chance points. By crashing the offensive boards more it is a clear positive for the over in that it both  creates second chance points for them and makes them have a worse transition defense.

Liberty is a good team who has several shooters. The Flames can spread you out and move the ball around very well. 

The change in style isn't accounted for here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors have a new coach this year and they are going to play with extreme tempo. The Matadors are 12th in the country in tempo so far this year. The fast pace worked too. They were actually up 76-72 with 4 minutes left against Stanford before falling apart and losing 88-79. That was a nice showing for this Big West team against a Pac 12 big school.

Idaho was beaten 84-59 by Washington State in their first game. The Vandals have been atrocious on defense the last few years, and I expect more of that this season. Washington State plays very slowly so I believe the Idaho tempo stats are a bit skewed right now. Alex Pribble is their new coach, and Pribble said he wanted to pick up the tempo this year. Here is a great chance for them to run with CS Northridge.

Both of these teams have a penchant for fouling a lot so a bunch of free throws wouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are going to play nothing like they did a year ago. Northridge has a new coach in Andy Newman. Newman has preached a faster pace all through the offseason. He wants this team to play a fun brand of basketball and be high octane. They probably won't be very good at first, but I expect them to play very quickly.

The Stanford offense will have some big edges at multiple spots on the floor here. Stanford is a veteran team this year and they have multiple scorers. Spencer Jones will be a matchup problem for the Matadors. 

Stanford's point guards are better this year and I expect them to get to the hoop here.

The pace should be quick.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. This team has been committed to playing quickly under Coach Lange the whole way. This team has good spacing and has been implementing a Rim and 3 strategy on offense. They return several good backcourt players who should be pretty reliable scorers.

Lafayette has a new coach and an entirely different strategy this year. This team ranked 349th in tempo last year. Their new coach came from a smaller school and he was well known for faster tempo and efficient offenses. He even said before the season that they will play faster and be better on offense. Surprisingly, the coach even said he expects them to be worse on defense. 

Lafayette playing completely differently is important to this handicap. I expect a pretty fast pace. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Carolina hosted USC Upstate last year and the final was 68-53 with a very slow pace of 59. 

South Carolina plays very slowly under Lamont Paris. It makes sense because he was under Bo Ryan before becoming a head coach. Paris' teams are good at controlling the pace and winning with a lack of turnovers and with solid defense.

USC Upstate lost their best scorer from a year ago. USC Upstate developed a solid defense last year. The only thing they do too much is foul with their aggressiveness. South Carolina was bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

I think this one is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies defense has been excellent at the end of the year. The Huskies have held Gonzaga to 54 and Miami to 59 points in their last two games. They also held St. Mary's to 55 earlier in the tournament. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, and they can go through long scoring droughts. San Diego State had a clear height advantage against Florida Atlantic, but the length of the UConn defense should bother them. Clinigan and Sanogo are a great tandem down low. The length of the UConn guards is excellent too.

San Diego State's defense has been fantastic all year, but they have been at their best in the NCAA Tournament. They will do their best to turn this game into a rock fight. I would expect them to contest UConn's three point jumpers better than anyone else in the NCAA Tournament has. San Diego State is second in the nation in 3 point defense % allowed.

The neutral court here at NRG has led to the 9 games played here going under the total by more than 5.5 points on the average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs are now the #2 ranked three point defense in the country. San Diego State is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.7% from three point range on the year. Florida Atlantic is 35th in three point frequency on offense, so they are definitely accustomed to taking a lot of shots from long range. San Diego State is going to contest those long range jumpers better than anyone Florida Atlantic has played this year.

San Diego State has really been grinding down the tempo of their games of late. They slowed a very fast paced Furman team down to 63 possessions. They slowed a pretty fast Creighton team down to 62 possessions. KenPom projects the pace of this game at 66 possessions, but I think that is a bit too quick. Florida Atlantic was slowed to just 59 possessions against Tennessee. That is the most similar team the Owls have played. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, especially with Matt Bradley in a major funk. Their leading scorer during the season has been awful in their last three games. San Diego State is a very inconsistent jump shooting team. Florida Atlantic is underrated on defense.

This game is played at NRG Stadium, a massive football stadium where the shooting backdrop has bothered some teams. The under is 4-3 in games played here with the under cashing by an average of 6.29 points in the seven game sample overall. Two of the overs have cashed by two points or fewer. None of the unders have cashed by less than five points. 

I think this will be a tight game where easy shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense is elite. Gonzaga's guards are better than they looked in their close win over UCLA in the Sweet 16. I would expect them to hit a few more shots from deep in this one. Drew Timme will have a tougher matchup here in the paint, but he has been excellent the last two years and I would still expect a pretty good scoring game from him.

UConn is firing on all cylinders right now. The Huskies have scored 87 and 88 points in two of their NCAA Tournament games (Iona and Arkansas). UConn is tremendous on the offensive glass, and Gonzaga is only decent on the defensive glass. Timme is elite on offense, but he is subpar on defense and I think UConn's big guys can have a big offensive game. 

These two teams are first and fourth in the nation (363 teams) in second chance conversion percentage, which is quick second chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. 

The pace here should be pretty quick. UConn is an average paced team and Gonzaga likes to run as much as possible. 

The Gonzaga defense is a big weakness, and UConn should be able to take advantage of it. UConn's three point shooting has been good of late, and they have several scoring options from outside.

The UConn defense is good, but they do foul a bunch. Gonzaga is good at getting to the line and they should be in the bonus quite a bit in this game. I expect them to get plenty of good looks.

Gonzaga's game against UCLA cashed the over and even went over this total despite UCLA going 11 minutes without making a field goal in the second half.

T Mobile Arena has been a good over arena. The rims here are loose and there isn't a tough backdrop. The over is 25-12 in the last 37 postseason games at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Those games have gone over the total by an average of 5.59 points.

This should be a great game and overtime or a foul fest late is certainly possible.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been known as a great offensive team in the past few years under Greg McDermott. They are still very good on offense, but this is the best Creighton defense McDermott has had. In fact, Creighton is 23rd in offensive efficiency in the country and an even better 13th on defense.

Creighton is elite at two key things- defending without fouling (3rd in the country), and defensive rebounding (13th best in the country). These two things can really help keep a total down. 

Princeton has made a stunning run into the Sweet 16. The Tigers have done so by controlling the pace in a big way against both Arizona and Missouri. Both of those teams play faster than Creighton. Princeton knows their best chance to win is by stalling and playing low scoring games. The Arizona game was low all the way. The Missouri game stayed under, and was very low scoring until Missouri turned the game into a ridiculous foul fest late down 15 points. Even with all that fouling late the game ended up being played to a pace of just 63 possessions.

Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 points or larger are 23-8 to the under in the last 31 games. This one fits the bill. That same angle with a total of 135 or higher is 18-3 to the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes has plenty of shortcomings as a head coach, but his teams defend with tremendous intensity. Florida Atlantic hasn't played anyone who defends the way Tennessee does.

The Tennessee offense isn't very good. The Volunteers take a lot of long range jumpers, but they are shooting just 33.0% from 3 point range. Tennessee relies heavily on getting second chance opportunities. Florida Atlantic ranks 43rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They also rank 43rd out of 363 in the country in defending without fouling.

Florida Atlantic's offense focuses on putting up a lot of 3 point jumpers. The Tennessee defense is first in the country in 3 point percentage allowed at just 26.0%. The Owls are going to have a much harder time than normal getting up open long range jumpers.

Madison Square Garden is the host for this game. This has been the single best under venue in all of college basketball for the long term. The tough shooting backdrop can be really hard for shooters to adjust to. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* TCU takes on Gonzaga on Sunday night in what should be a fun contest between two very good teams.

TCU does play quickly, but the Horned Frogs have been extremely inconsistent on offense. They are very good defensively. TCU is 23rd in defensive efficiency. They are also 23rd in turnover rate forced. The Horned Frogs will switch up their defenses a lot and look to give Gonzaga's offense some trouble with unique setups. Gonzaga's offense is excellent, but they haven't faced many teams throughout the year who are able to be as aggressive and force turnovers at the rate TCU can. 

TCU's is just 213th in effective field goal percentage offense. It will be pretty rare to see a total in the upper 150's with one team who has been this inefficient on offense. TCU had been very good on the offensive glass earlier with Eddie Lampkin being a key, but he is off the team now. The Horned Frogs will rely heavily on Mike Miles in this one.

Ball Arena in Colorado at a high altitude hosts this game. The first four games played here all stayed under in the Round of 64. They stayed under closing numbers which had dropped drastically in many cases. They stayed under by an average of 6.75 points. The second half was very low in most of these games. 

I think the pace will be pretty fast here, but I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. It's a one and done and the unders have been hitting at a very high rate in this NCAA Tournament. Hopefully we get another ref crew here who swallows the whistle more than in the regular season games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers do like to play fast and they will try to push the temp, but Princeton has to know that they don't want to get into an up and down track meet with Missouri.

I backed the under between Princeton/Arizona and it stayed under by 40 points. I certainly don't expect this one to stay that low, but Princeton did show they are able to slow the game down against a team who wants to run and run. 

Missouri is very weak on the defensive glass, but Princeton is below average in their offensive rebounding percentages and second chance conversions. 

Princeton is elite at getting defensive rebounds (8th in the nation) and the Tigers defense is above average.

This is a really high total and both teams would have to shoot the ball well to reach this total at my expected pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The defenses here are elite. Tennessee is second in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. Duke is 17th for the year, but they are a top ten defense in the last month. Both defenses do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and making opponents take contested mid range or long range jumpers frequently.

Tennessee has given up 57 points or less in four of their last six games. The Volunteers have lots of flaws as a team, but they are very athletic and they play great team defense. On offense, Tennessee lacks shooters and often goes through long scoring droughts.

Duke is a little too careless with the basketball, and Tennessee should force turnovers and hurt Duke's offensive efficiency here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out as a rare team from the MAC who defends very well. Kent State took a fantastic game plan in and nearly won at both Houston and Gonzaga. They slowed the game down and used their top notch defense to keep the game close. 

Kent State's Hornbeak and Payton are long and athletic, and Jacobs is a fantastic one on one defender. I think they are more than capable of giving Indiana a really tough time getting open looks. 

Kent State's offense isn't consistently good. The Golden Flashes aren't a very good outside shooting team, and I don't think they can get in the paint and score on a consistent basis against Indiana.

This game is played at MVP Arena in Albany which has been a fantastic under venue in the past. It's a large arena with a tough shooting backdrop. How good has the under been in games here? The under is nearly 60% in the last 200 games here.

Look for both defenses to make it tough on the opposition here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Providence Friars both play at a slower than average tempo. This is a neutral site game in Greensboro. In Greensboro, totals of 140 or higher have gone 75-47-1 to the under. The average margin of victory for the under is a solid 3.56 points over this large sample size.

Kentucky's offense will likely drive into the lane a lot here, but that is the strength of the Providence defense. The Friars will mix and match defenses a lot under Ed Cooley.

Providence's offense relies too much on Bryce Hopkins. There's a lot of pressure on him in this game against his old team. The Friars have relied heavily on offensive rebounds as well, but Kentucky was first in the SEC in defensive rebounding this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles defense was very weak early in the season, but since the start of February they have consistently been much better on defense. Marquette is a good defense now overall, but their weakness is defensive rebounding. Fortunately, Vermont isn't the type of team that goes after it on the offensive glass very much at all. Vermont is 358th out of 363 in offensive rebounding. The Catamounts are happy to get back and stop opponents in transition.

Vermont's good transition defense helps here too. The Marquette offense is excellent overall, but I think they'll have a bit harder time than normal getting to the hoop in transition. That should mean more shot clock being used up.

Neither of these teams get to the line very much at all, and second chance points aren't likely to be very high in this game either. 

These high spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. I think this under has value as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas A&M Aggies attack the basket and get to the free throw line at a high rate. There aren't many teams Penn State has played this year that attack the hoop as hard as the Aggies do. Penn State lacks shot blockers on the interior. In fact, they are just 327th out of 363 teams in the country in blocked shot percentage.

On the other side, Penn State is an elite shooting team. The Nittany Lions shoot 38.5% from three point range. Penn State is going to shoot a bunch of long range jumpers in this one. On the surface Texas A&M's three point defense looks good, but I see a couple big reasons for that. First, the SEC in general was a horrible three point shooting conference this year. Penn State will be the best long range shooting team Texas A&M has played. Second, that is shown by Texas A&M ranking 213th in open three rate allowed. Opponents were missing open shots. I think Penn State can make them. Jalen Pickett is an elite playmaker and Lundy, Funk, and Wynter are great outside shooters. 

The pace will be relatively slow here, but I think the efficiencies should be high enough for it to get over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* High seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament who are favored by a large margin have seen their games go under the total at a high rate. That has been especially true when the total is set at a high number.

Arizona likes to play quickly, and they should score quite a few points here. At the same time, if they are up late it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull quite a few starters and slow things down a bit. They will have a tough challenge ahead with just one day off in between.

Princeton should absolutely know their best chance is to stall and slow the tempo down drastically. The Tigers will shoot a lot of long range jumpers here. They are going to be up against a very long Arizona team who will contest those long range jumpers much better than the teams Princeton played against in the Ivy League.

Arizona's defense isn't elite, but it is much improved and they looked great defensively against UCLA in their last game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are 31-3 on the season. Charleston has been fantastic this year, but they did play a very weak schedule. Charleston hasn't seen a defense as good as San Diego State all season long. 

San Diego State's defense has rounded into form in a big way of late. Their last four games opponents have scored 0.931 points per possession or less in each contest. San Diego State is clearly a top eight or ten defense in the country. 

Charleston is all about getting out in transition and running, but San Diego State ranks in the top three in the nation in transition defense. Charleston's halfcourt sets end in too many contested three point jumpers. I don't think that is a good solution against the Aztecs.

San Diego State's offense still goes through long scoring droughts pretty often. They too often settle for low quality mid range jumpers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't usually play many unders early in the smaller postseason tournaments, but I'm going to in this one.

The fact that it is a smaller postseason tournament is definitely accounted for in the number or else this total would be several points lower. In recent years the over and under have been pretty even early in these tournaments.

This is a big game for Liberty. A chance to host a national power in a postseason tournament. Liberty should be highly motivated for a game like this. The Flames are consistently very slow paced.

Villanova is even slower paced than Liberty this year. The Wildcats and Flames both are top 50 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both of them excel in defending without fouling too. 

They do both shoot the 3 ball a lot and if they are red hot from 3 this will go over, but with normal shooting percentages this game should stay under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the Big East Finals on Saturday night. These two teams met twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 156 points and 137 points. The pace of both of those games finished at just 69 possessions and 68 possessions. Marquette mixes in some zone defenses, and that has caused Xavier's offense to slow down from their normal very fast pace.

This game is at Madison Square Garden which is arguably the single best under venue in all of college basketball. The under has been money again this year at MSG in the Big East Tournament. Both games went well under the total last night. 

ShotQuality looks at the quality of shot taken and they believe the two regular season games between these two teams should have finished 154 and 150 points.

The tougher shooting backdrop and a lot on the line in the finals of the Big East Tournament. I'll take the under on this high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls are likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless, but I know their coaching staff has talked about wanting to finish the deal and win this Conference USA Tournament. The life of a mid-major isn't easy, and they want to avoid losing to MTSU twice in the same season.

MTSU is a slower paced team that relies on getting second chance points. Florida Atlantic is the single best team in the conference when it comes to defensive rebounding. The Owls do a great job defending without fouling as well. 

Florida Atlantic does play quickly, but their defense is underrated. The Owls rank in the top five percent of teams in the country in shot selection allowed.

This one is at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. This is a football facility that has been great to under bettors through the years. The semifinal and final rounds played here have gone 10-3 to the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams met twice this year. The pace was very slow in both games. One finished with 134 points and the other with 110 points.

Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken by each team. They believe the 134 game should have been 129, and the 110 game should have been 119. Both were legitimately very low scoring games.

This is a win or go home and neither team will be pushing the tempo. These are the top two teams in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage as well.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have to try to slow the pace of this game down. Marist is a very slow paced team and they won their first game by stalling the pace out. They'll try to do the same here.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Quinnipiac relies on a lot of long range jumpers, but with this background I think they'll be tougher than normal to knock down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met the posted total was 145 points. The game finished with 147 points after they scored more than 90 points in the second half. 

This total is set 7 points higher in a win or go home situation in a game being played in an NBA arena at Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland, Ohio. 

The pace of this game should be a relatively average pace for college basketball. Oddsmakers are counting on efficiency in order to get to this high total. More times than not the defense steps up in these win or go home games, and we have seen the under do better overall the last couple days as tournaments have gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNC Central is a very good team on defense every single year under Coach LeVelle Moton. This team doesn't give up many easy looks. They held Delaware State to 55 and 58 points in the two regular season meetings between these two teams.

Delaware State slows the pace down, and UNC Central is happy to play at a slow pace as well. Delaware State is first in the conference in defensive rebounding.

This game is played at Norfolk Scope Arena which has proven to be a solid under venue in the past. 

This game has a higher total than the average of the two regular season meetings between these teams. Both regular season games went under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The total here is set the same as the regular season meetings between these two teams. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken. In both regular season games, Shot Quality believes the game should have stayed well below this total (132 and 130 points). 

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Villanova is the slowest paced team in the Big East. I think they have a good lead here and grind down the pace with the lead late. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are expected to be without point guard Kadary Richmond. Without him their offense looks a lot different. Seton Hall has been playing slower at the end of the season without Richmond on the floor. They have been making tough shots, but this game is played at tough shooting venue Madison Square Garden.

DePaul has had another terrible season. The Blue Demons lack offensive firepower. This is a team that doesn't share the ball well. They settle into one on one spots.

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Both regular season games stayed under this total as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have changed things up a bit this year and are playing faster and have been better on offense. Pitt hasn't been able to be slowed down tempo wise by many teams so far this year. Which team has slowed them down? Georgia Tech. Two of Pitt's three slowest games of the year have been against Georgia Tech. 

Georgia Tech just played a grinder yesterday against Florida State (59 possessions) and FSU is a team that normally likes to get out and run too. 

The last game these two played had a total of 137. This is a win or go home game for GA Tech, and Pitt might miss the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game too. A lot is on the line. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks stunned the Eastern Washington Eagles a couple days ago. Montana has taken care of business to reach this game. 

The two games played between these two teams in the regular season were 138 and 133 points in regulation. Both were played to a slower than average pace. The advanced metrics site ShotQuality believes based on the quality of shots the two games in the regular season should have finished 136 (after overtime) and 128 (in the second game). 

This is a win or go home on a neutral floor. Both teams take a lot of 3 point jumpers. Both of these offenses actually rate in the bottom 10% of all teams in the country in terms of quality of shot. They do both have good outside shooters, but the defense should be a bit better in a game like this and a neutral floor is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have the worst offense in the MAAC. They were especially bad away from home this year. Fairfield's defense was actually significantly better on the road and on neutral floors than at home this year. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams both stayed under this very low posted total. Those games played to an average pace of 61 possessions (very slow). 

St. Peter's has played its last five games to a pace of 61 possessions or slower. 

Fairfield has been one of the best defenses in the MAAC all season long. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. It's a large venue where shooters have had a tough time in the past. The under has hit by an average of more than 4 points in all games played at this building.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chattanooga Mocs and Furman Paladins meet in the Southern Conference Championship game tonight. Chattanooga beat Furman by a point in overtime last year in the finals. These two teams look a little different this year, but the stakes are extremely high again here.

The two regular season meetings both went to Furman. Both of those games stayed under this total. This is the biggest game of the year for both of these teams. 

The game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 29-17 in games played here. 

Both of these teams shoot a ton of 3 pointers. They are both capable of shooting it well, and if they are on fire from 3, this one will go over the total. However, both defenses are above average defending the long range jumper, and the tempo is likely to slow down here with so much on the line. It being at a neutral site that is tough for shooters is a positive as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and South Dakota meet late Sunday in the Summit League Conference Tournament.

These two teams played two games in the regular season that stayed under this total. Those games finished at 134 and 133 points. 

South Dakota relies very heavily on three point shooting. The Coyotes have shot it well, but North Dakota State is third in the Summit League in 3 point defense. This is a neutral site too where the shooting backdrop isn't ideal. 

North Dakota State has played better defense down the stretch. Their last four games have all finished at 140 total points or fewer. 

If the long range shots are falling this could go over, but I think the pace will be pretty slow and neither team gets to the line much or gets second chances very often at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Summit League's top team starts postseason play today as Oral Roberts takes on North Dakota. 

Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 156 points and 143 points total. This game will be played on a neutral floor in South Dakota that has been good to under bettors in the past. It is win or go home. 

Shot Quality tracks what the score should have been based on the quality of shot: here are the results from the first two games

156 (155 should have been) 

143 (140 should have been)

Vanover is a good defensive force inside for Oral Roberts and North Dakota will have to settle for a lot of outside jumpers here.

In a win or go home game on a tough neutral court this is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Gators defense isn't even close to the same without Castleton on the floor. They allowed 82 against Kentucky and 88 against Vanderbilt in their first two games without him. Georgia scored 67 last game due to terrible outside shooting. 

Florida should get their points against a woeful LSU defense. The Gators have been playing a bit faster in the last few games, and LSU has the worst defense in the SEC. 

LSU should get second chance opportunities throughout.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have an excellent defense that has given the Northeast Conference problems all season long. Merrimack is allowing 0.88 points per possession in the conference. That is just fantastic from a defensive efficiency standpoint.

These two teams have played each other twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 114 and 122 points. 

This is a win or go home game where the tempo tends to slow down and the defenses give a ton of effort. 

Merrimack's offense is bottom three in the country in efficiency. Both teams defend well without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC Davis Aggies and Long Beach State 49ers meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely fast tempo of 77 possessions. The shooting numbers in that game were ugly. It still got to 147 total points. With normalized shooting numbers, I expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Long Beach State and UC Davis both have big edges on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities here. Both teams live at the line and free throws should help boost this point total a lot.

I think the pace stays quick and the shooting improves some here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between Rice and FIU easily cleared this number. FIU and Rice both want to pressure and run when they can. 

FIU was without star scorer Denver Jones for a few games and that slowed down their offensive a lot, but he is back now and scoring a bunch once again. 

Rice gets a lot of open outside looks against this FIU aggressive defense, and the Owls are solid shooters especially on their home floor.

The pace should be there or a high scoring game in this one. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first two times these teams met the final totals were 131 and 134 points. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures the quality of each shot and their system tells what the score should have been based on the quality of shot taken. In the two games the final totals should have been 135 and 128 points according to Shot Quality. Both are comfortably under the current total.

The posted total here is set higher than it was in the regular season games between these two. Why should it be? They stayed under the total in two slow paced games in the regular season. This is a win or go home game played on a neutral floor that is 24-14 to the under.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners and MTSU Blue Raiders both play unique defenses. These two teams like to switch things up and trap and get steals when they can. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final score of 84-72. While I'm not confident it will be that high again, I think this total is too low. 

This game doesn't mean anything to these two teams who are in a must win spot in the conference tournament. This is the regular season finale and I think the teams will feel free to play a bit quicker.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The La Salle Explorers played decent defense earlier in the season, but they have been terrible of late. La Salle has allowed 1.29, 1.25, and 1.32 points per possession in their last three games. That is some awful defense. Loyola Chicago does get good looks at the basket, and I think they can put up a solid amount of points in this one.

The Loyola defense has been very disappointing for their fans all year. The Ramblers don't have shot blockers and they have given up too many open jumpers in general. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams have been amazing on offense in their home building. They are averaging 1.195 points per possession in the Mountain West at home. They are also giving up 1.114 points per possession at home. They have had some shootouts on their home floor. 

New Mexico is a different team with Jaelen House in the lineup. They struggled to score and some teams were able to slow them down without House, but they have consistently played to a pace of at least 68 possessions or more with House in the lineup. 

The first game was 88-69 New Mexico at New Mexico. Colorado State should be able to score down low here. The Rams are 5th in near proximity offense at Haslametrics and New Mexico is 125th at NP defense as they lack shot blockers down low.

New Mexico speed should get them some easy points in transition here too, and House and Mashburn are matchup problems.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Hawks meet in the first round of the Summit League Conference Tournament. This game is played at Sanford Premier Center in South Dakota on a neutral floor. The under is 14-8 in the last 22 postseason games played here. 

Denver and North Dakota are both really bad teams. This isn't necessarily an easy under to take, but I think it is a solid play. The two regular season games both finished 149. This is a bigger game where it is win or go home. 

Denver relies on getting inside and North Dakota's relative strength on defense is their interior defense with their solid height. Neither team plays all that fast either, and this is a high total for a game with an average tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Citadel and Mercer just played in their last game in the regular season and that one finished 72-50 and was played to a very slow pace of 51 possessions. 

Both of these teams struggle to get second chance points. Neither of them get to the free throw line much either. 

Mercer has turned into a pretty good defensive team as the year has gone along. The Bears were third in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. They have mixed in some zone defenses to slow down the opposition.

The Citadel is terrible offensively. The Bulldogs like to put up a lot of 3's, but that is the strength of the Mercer defense (perimeter defense). 

This game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 23-13 in games played here. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games under this total in regulation. Missouri State is the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also have multiple very good shot blockers to keep the opposition out of the paint.

UIC has had some higher scoring games of late, but both games between these two in the regular season stayed well under this total.

This is a win or go home game.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some since I selected it- I would play this for 5 stars down to 131 and for 4 stars at anything lower than that* 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met it went into overtime both times. 

The first game finished at 147 points after OT (122 points total before).

The second game finished at 153 points after OT (130 points total before). 

While it is always possible this game goes into overtime, we couldn't predict that it would. These two have played games well under this even in a regular season setup. 

This is a win or go home game where defense is typically more engaged.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* This is the early game in St. Louis on Thursday at the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Illinois State plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. Northern Iowa plays at an average tempo. Overall, this should be a game played at a slow pace. 

The two regular season meetings finished at 126 and 128 points. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass which is a plus for the under.

This game is played on a neutral floor at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This is a hockey arena which is noted for its tough shooting backdrops because of the size of the building. Unders have historically done very well in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. 

Take the under.

*This line has shifted some- I would bet this for 4 stars down to 136 and 3 stars at anything lower than that.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have played 11 of their last 12 games under this posted total. In fact, all 11 of those games finished at 126 points or fewer. Wagner is a great under team for a few reasons. First, they rank as the fifth slowest paced team in the country. Wagner also ranks 345th in offensive efficiency in the nation. This team takes a lot of low percentage shots. Wagner is also a pretty good defensive team though. The Seahawks are second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Their one main problem on defense is how much they foul, but Sacred Heart is 295th in FTA/FGA in the country.

Sacred Heart has improved on defense this year. In conference play, they are fourth in defensive efficiency. Sacred Heart has played to a slower teams preferred tempo several times (Wagner, Merrimack, C Connecticut St). 

Both games between these two in the regular season went under this total (126 and 121 points).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first time these two teams played the final was 78-70. That game cleared this total fairly comfortably. I think this game will go over the total as well.

Colorado State is dead last in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. The Rams are giving up far too many open shots. On the other side, Colorado State's offense is very good. Isaiah Stevens is a good leader for the team at guard and he has a great 115.9 offensive rating. He takes great care of the basketball and is an elite passer as well. 

San Jose State puts up a lot of shots from long range, and Colorado State is very susceptible against good long range shooting teams. San Jose State has 29 and 21 offensive rebounds in their last two home games as well.

There are multiple very good angles for mediocre or worse teams playing their last couple regular season games and those games trending toward the over pretty strongly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for both of these two teams. The Big Sky Conference is well known for poor defense and good offenses. It's a weak league overall, but there are quite a few guys in this conference who can shoot the basketball.

The first game between these two teams finished at 136 points (76-60). This game means very little to these two teams. 

Northern Arizona takes a lot of shots from long range, and that is their big advantage. The Lumberjacks are hitting 38.2% from 3 point range. Weber State ranks 333rd out of 363 teams in the nation in 3 point defense. 

Weber State has a big advantage in the paint. Northern Arizona lacks shot blockers and Weber State should be able to do work down low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis have been a bit higher scoring in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Marcus Domask is an offensive star, and Domask is capable of taking over in any game. Domask had 24 points in the first meeting between these two teams. That game finished 68-66. 

The UIC Flames have had much higher scoring games than predicted especially late in the season. In fact, 13 of UIC's last 15 games have gone over this total. UIC ranks 3rd in the league in tempo. The Flames have allowed 74 points or more in each of their last four games. 

This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.  Neither team has much to play for in this one. These late season games have gone over the total at a high rate in the past. That has continued so far this season as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have an interim coach after Kermit Davis Jr. was fired this week. With Ole Miss out of the running for anything this year, I think there is a good chance they play quicker and a bit more freely. 

Ole Miss has actually seen 7 of its last 9 games finish with 141 points or more. They have really been getting out in transition with steals and getting quick scores. They should be able to do that here too against an LSU team that is poor in transition defense.

LSU has seen 6 of its last 8 games finish over this total. The Tigers have finally started shooting the ball better very recently.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* USF committed to playing faster this year and they have stuck to it. The Bulls are playing fast and crashing the offensive glass. That should help them a lot against an SMU team that is awful on the defensive glass. 

SMU is good at getting steals and scores in transition. USF doesn't have very good ball handlers, and they are vulnerable to pressure. 

The pace here should be frenetic. The first game finished at 162 points.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots and Pacific Tigers meet in the regular season finale tonight. 

Portland is coming off a game that was 56-53 at halftime against San Francisco last time. The Pilots have allowed 92 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Portland is dead last in the West Coast Conference in defensive efficiency.

Pacific is 5th in the nation in open 3 rate, and this Portland defense is allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% from 3 point range in conference play. Pacific will get a bunch of open looks here. 

The pace in this one should stay fast throughout. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville actually played pretty decent defense for a good while this season, but that has all gone out the window in recent weeks. Edwardsville has allowed 88.25 points per game in their last four games. They are really pushing the pace, and the defense has been terrible.

SE Missouri State is the fastest paced team in the OVC. The Redhawks foul a ton and Edwardsville should live on the line in this one. SE Missouri State should get a lot of quick transition opportunities off their pressure defense.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game. This is their final regular season game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Christian Huskies have the single worst defense in all of college basketball. They give up a bunch of open shots and they also give up loads of second chance points. It's hard to believe they can keep being so bad on defense every year, but they have done it. 

Houston Christian is good at getting to the line and they are capable of scoring in bunches. Nicholls State is great at getting steals and getting out in transition and scoring. Houston Christian is terrible in transition defense. 

The first game between these two was 92-91. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are 362nd in the nation in tempo. The second slowest team in the nation. Charlotte is going to play their style of basketball, regardless of what the opposition wants to do. Rice prefers to play fast, but they have been slowed down by several teams this year. The first game between these two teams played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. That game stayed well under the total.

Charlotte and Rice both do a good job not allowing opponents to get to the line much, and both are good on the defensive glass. 

I think this number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans offense has really gotten it going in their last few games. Fullerton is riding high coming into this game. The single biggest strength of the Fullerton offense is their ability to get to the line at a very high rate. Now, they come into a matchup with a Bakersfield team that fouls more than any other team in the Big West Conference. Fullerton should be able to live at the line here.

Bakersfield has been more competitive at home. This spread suggests a game that could be in the fouling range late. Both of these teams have been very good from the free throw line (72.7% And 79%) in Big West play.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and LA Monroe Warhawks meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Friday night. These two teams have a history of playing higher scoring than expected games against each other. Five of the last six meetings have gone over the posted total between these two teams. Only one of the last six meetings has even stayed under 146 points. 

These two teams are both very weak on defense. They are bad teams in general, and there is no reason to expect a big effort from them in this game. The regular season doesn't matter to these teams anymore.

Both teams are above average in the league in 3 point shooting, and both defenses are terrible at defending beyond the arc. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates and Monmouth Hawks have been awful this season. Hampton pushes the pace, and the first game between these two was played to their preferred tempo. 

Monmouth's offense has been slightly better in recent weeks, and they are up against a terrible defense here.

These two are at the bottom of the CAA standings. This game means very little to either team, and I think that will help the offenses get more open looks here. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two finished 87-82. St. Francis (PA) shoots the 3 ball extremely well, and Fairleigh Dickinson is 361st out of 363 teams in the country in 3 point defense. 

Fairleigh Dickinson's offense has been really efficient this year, and they are good at pushing the pace. They should be able to generate plenty of quick steals and scores here against a St. Francis team that hasn't been good in transition defense.

Both offenses should get to the line a lot with both defenses struggling to defend without fouling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a unique team in the Sun Belt. This is a league with a lot of teams who aren't very efficient on offense. Louisiana is first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. The Ragin' Cajuns are also pretty quick paced. Louisiana is 4th in the league in average possession length.

Arkansas State is 13th out of 14 teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Red Wolves allowed 80 points to Louisiana at home earlier this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow them down here in Louisiana either. 

Louisiana's defense is 10th in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line, and both of these teams foul a bunch. There should be a lot of points scored with the clock stopped here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers really tried to slow the game down a lot earlier in the season. Toward the end of the season, this Georgia State team has played quite a bit quicker. They are no longer locking teams down on the defensive end either.

Appalachian State has been much worse defensively in their last few games. In fact, Appalachian State has allowed 74 points or more in each of their last three games. The Mountaineers held Georgia State to 59 in their first meeting, but Georgia State only got to the line 7 times in that game. They should get to the line more here.

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* East Tennessee State won the first meeting between these two teams 96-74. Both teams shot the ball really well from 3 point range in that one, so I don't expect that high of a total here. Still, this number has dipped and the tempo should be relatively quick.

I don't see any reason to expect either team to be very concerned about playing tough defense here. Neither defense is very good to begin with, and both of these teams have had a really disappointing season and they are playing out the string in the regular season. 

There are multiple very good long term angles regarding the end of the regular season being good to over bettors in games where the two teams aren't very good. These teams have little to play for in this game, and they have just one more regular season game after this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Youngstown State Penguins have a very good offense, but I think they are due for at least some regression. Youngstown State has played the 338th toughest slate of defenses this year, so their numbers are at least somewhat skewed. 

Youngstown State relies on getting to the basket a lot. They are up against a Robert Morris team that is first in the Horizon League in 2 point FG percentage defense. Robert Morris is second in the league in blocked shots percentage. 

Robert Morris slows the tempo down. They rank 9th in the Horizon League in average tempo. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency and just 8th in offensive efficiency.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team fouls much at all. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have Antoine Davis trying to beat Pistol Pete Maravich's scoring record. It will take a lot of points in each of his last few games. Davis is going to take a bunch of shots in this one. Davis likes to shoot it from long range, and IUPUI is the ideal matchup for a 3 point shooter. This IUPUI defense ranks in the bottom 15 in the country in 3 point defense. IUPUI overall is 359th out of 363 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Detroit put up 89 points on IUPUI in the first game and that was without Gerald Liddell down low. Liddell is an elite offensive rebounder, and IUPUI is terrible on the defensive glass.

IUPUI's pace has picked up of late. On the season overall, they are playing about 4 possessions per game faster than a year ago. The Jaguars have a pretty good scorer in Jlynn Counter. 

Look for Detroit to push for points for Davis here, and that should lead to quite a few points on the board overall.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are all about pushing the pace. The first game between Weber State and Portland State played to a pace of 76 possessions. The final score was 84-68 in that one.

The Big Sky Conference is well known as a conference where there isn't much defense played. This is a late season game between two teams who aren't going to win the conference. In game 25 of the season or later with a total of 145 or lower, Big Sky overs are north of 60% in the last 8 years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins beat the Lipscomb Bison 51-44 in their first meeting this year. I was on the under in that game, and I'm on the under again here. Jacksonville is elite at a couple things 1. Slowing down the pace of the game and 2. Defending beyond the 3 point line. 

Lipscomb relies heavily on shooting it from long range. The Bison are much improved themselves on the defensive end too. Jacksonville isn't efficient on offense and they are using more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave rank top five in the nation in tempo. Ron Hunter's team has really leaned into their pressing style this year. Tulane has gotten far more aggressive on offense as well. They have some great free throw shooters, which could be really important here since USF fouls at the highest rate of any team in the AAC. Tulane is shooting a whopping 79.92% from the free throw line as a team.

USF has indeed picked up their pace as well. The Bulls should get a lot of second chance points against the unique Tulane zone defense that struggles to grab defensive rebounds.

A really fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two met it was 65-36 Cal State Fullerton. The Cal Poly offense is dreadful, but their defense has been giving many teams in the Big West a difficult time. 

These two teams both rank among the the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. There is nothing to suggest this game will be played at anything but a very slow pace.

Fullerton has been elite defensively on their home floor. The Titans offense has actually been better on the road as well.

Take the under here.