Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Over* The FIU Golden Panthers and the MTSU Blue Raiders are both pressing quite a bit. In the first meeting the game sailed over the total because of a lot of steals and quick scores in transition. Both teams are poor in transition defense, and both of these teams will get steals from their aggressive pressure.

MTSU has played five games in a row that have gone over this total. The Blue Raiders offense is really clicking right now. FIU is the fastest paced offense in the conference.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Toledo has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Rockets are 14th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 19th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are up against a Bowling Green team who is 334th in defensive efficiency in the country. Toledo put up 91 points in the first game between these two. Toledo has scored 91, 96, and 91 points in the last three meetings with Bowling Green.

The Bowling Green Falcons have been able to be more competitive at home this year. They are all about running and gunning so they'll keep the tempo moving here. Bowling Green shoots the 3 ball well and Toledo struggled to defend the 3.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have been a tremendous under team this year. Missouri State is excellent at controlling the pace. They are also very good defensively and they don't give up many second chance points. Missouri State has gone under this total in regulation in 9 of their last 10 games.

Northern Iowa has played some higher scoring teams in the MVC recently, but Missouri State is the best under team in the league right now and I think there is line value here based on N Iowa's recent higher scoring games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* One of the better late regular season totals angles has been taking a game between two teams who have a poor record and little to play for and bet the over. That has been especially true if it is a low total. That fits perfectly in this game. These two teams are last and second to last in the Sun Belt standings.

Georgia State has played quite a bit quicker in their last five or six games than what they did the rest of the season. Arkansas State does play slowly, but their defense isn't good. 

I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 362nd out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Merrimack takes a lot of contested jumpers that are low percentage looks. On the other end of the floor, Merrimack is fantastic on defense. Their unique full court zone pressure actually substantially slows the pace of the game. 

Sacred Heart plays much quicker than Merrimack in general, but they have had to slow their pace down a lot in recent meetings with Merrimack. Sacred Heart's defense is a lot better than it was a year ago. 

The first meeting between these two teams was 59-55 and it played to a pace of only 63 possessions. KenPom is projecting 130 points (safely under the number) here, but he is also projecting a pace of 68 possessions. I think that is a little too fast. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stonehill Skyhawks have been playing some very good defense of late. Stonehill is second in the conference allowing just 0.94 points per possession. Stonehill has allowed 61 points or fewer in five straight contests. They have been mixing up the defenses nicely. On offense, Stonehill is 344th out of 363 teams in offensive efficiency. They have also been playing at a very slow pace of late.

Central Connecticut State is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency in the league as well. This is an offense that ranks 319th out of 363 in efficiency.

The first meeting between these two was 51-49 and played to a very slow pace of 58.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions pulled the massive upset in Spokane the first time these two teams met this year. Gonzaga will try to get revenge on the road here.

Loyola Marymount made it a point to slow the game down to a crawl in that first meeting and it worked. Gonzaga has played 26 games so far this year. Their first game against Loyola Marymount was played to the slowest tempo of any of their games so far this year. Why would Loyola not go with the same game plan here? I expect the Lions to try their hardest to keep this game in the halfcourt as much as possible.

Gonzaga has had some high scoring games lately, which has bumped this total up to a level that is several points too high in my opinion. If the Bulldogs shoot lights out this will lose, but I think the pace will be slower than the analytical sites are projecting.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have settled into the role of a team stalling and attempting to be competitive in ugly low scoring contests. It worked when they pulled off the big upset over USC in their last game. Oregon State has seen six of their last eight games stay under this very low total. This is a team that takes a lot of bad jump shots and they are likely to struggle to score against a high quality Washington State defense.

Washington State has scored 52 and 56 points in their last couple games. The Cougars have been fantastic on defense though. They have held five of their last nine opponents to 58 points or less. 

A slow pace and an ugly game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights have played much differently in recent weeks. Their average tempo has gone up quite a bit. Their offensive efficiency numbers are up a good amount as well. UCF has allowed 77 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

Memphis is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Tigers are also clearly more efficient on offense than a year ago. Penny Hardaway's team doesn't have as many great shot blockers, and their defense is down some from last year. Memphis should be able to dictate the tempo here as the home favorite. Their pressure should cause turnovers and scores.

Both teams are great on the offensive glass and very weak on the defensive boards. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are much better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. San Diego State was 167th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 31st so far this year. Matt Bradley is still the star, but he has gotten a lot more help this year. Transfers in of Trammell and Ledee have helped a lot. Adam Seiko is 39/80 from 3 point range as well.

Fresno State's defense was elite last year. It is no longer excellent. Fresno State was 37th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 104th this year. The Bulldogs give up too many second chance points, and San Diego State will take advantage of that weakness.

This extremely low total is usually just for games between two very poor offenses. That isn't the case in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Binghamton Bearcats are the second slowest paced team in the America East Conference. Binghamton is also third in defensive efficiency in the conference. NJIT has been a slow paced team historically. They are playing a bit faster this year than in the last couple years, but they have still been slower than an average team. 

NJIT is 337th in offensive efficiency in the country. This is a team that consistently takes some really bad shots. They are second to last in the conference in FTA/FGA. On defense, NJIT is good at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive boards.

Binghamton is #1 in effective FG percentage defense in league play.

The last four times these teams have played after regulation the games have been: 130 total points, 121, 123, and 122 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been fantastic on defense in the last few weeks. Creighton is 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency on the season. They played without star big man Ryan Kalkbrenner for a few games earlier in the season, and their defense was much worse without him. The 7'1 Kalkbrenner is an elite shot blocker and defensive rebounder. 

Providence relies heavily on offensive rebounds and getting to the line on offense. Creighton is first in the nation in free throws allowed per 100 trips up the court. They don't foul much at all. Creighton is also 17th out of 363 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

The Providence will switch around from man to zone and even the 1-3-1 zone occasionally with Ed Cooley. Creighton hasn't been very efficient of late on offense. 

This is a critical game for both teams with it being late in the season and both teams still in the Big East title race. The bigger the game late in the regular season it is helpful for an under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morehead State Eagles lost at home to Southeast Missouri State 91-86 earlier this year. I had the over in that game, and I'm going to back the over again here. 

These two teams have a history of playing very high scoring games against each other. Both of these teams are aggressive and look to get to the basket a lot. There have been a bunch of foul shots in their recent meetings.

SE Missouri State has seen 10 of its last 12 games go over this total. The two that stayed below both hit at least 140 points. They are the fastest paced team in the league by a large margin. 

Morehead State is hitting 38.8% from three point range in OVC action. SE Missouri State is allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% from three point range in league play.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials have the worst defense in the A10 and it isn't very close. George Washington is 326th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They gave up 87 against Loyola Chicago on the road. They allowed 85 against Fordham on the road. They alloweed 75 at George Mason (a mediocre offense). 

St. Joe's lost 92-91 in OT in the first meeting between these two. That game went over the total comfortably in regulation, and the tempo was very quick. St. Joe's is 87th in the nation in tempo and George Washington is 92nd. The pace will be there again. 

St. Joe's should get a lot of open looks from 3 in this one. George Washington should get to the line quite a bit too.

The pace and efficiency matches up here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been an excellent offensive team all year. UConn slowed them down in their last game, but the Huskies defense is light years better than this Georgetown Hoyas defense which is just dreadful.

Marquette ranks first in shot selection in the country. The Golden Eagles are a top 15 team in terms of average possession length. They are pushing the pace. Look for Marquette to get a lot of easy looks against this Hoyas defense that is allowing 1.15 points per possession in league play.

Georgetown's offense is capable with Primo Spears as a good playmaker in the backcourt. They'll likely be playing catch up and have to keep pushing their pace.

The first game was 95-73 and it wasn't a fluke.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Southeast Missouri State is pushing the tempo to the extreme this year. They started the season playing quickly, and they have sped up even more as the season has gone along. Their games in the OVC have played to an average tempo of 75 possessions. They have seen six of their last eight games finish with 161 points or more.

Tennessee State prefers to play quickly as well, and they are 318th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Southeast Missouri State is first in the OVC in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State should live on the line here with the way Southeast Missouri State fouls. 

The last few meetings between these two have played to an average pace of about 75.5 possessions per game. I think this one is a track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Illinois Leathernecks and UMKC Roos meet in a fairly meaningless Summit League matchup on Thursday night. After this game only four regular season contests are left for these two teams. Both of these teams are out of the running for the Summit League regular season title. 

Late season games between two teams who aren't highly motivated have gone toward the over in the last decade. 

The Summit League has been a tremendous "over" league in the past decade too. Blindly betting overs in this league would have you at better than 56%.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency in the Northeast Conference. They also rank second in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

Stonehill ranks second in the NEC in defensive efficiency. They rank first in the NEC in effective field goal percentage defense.

These are clearly the top two defenses in the league. 

The two teams rank 334th and 362nd in offensive efficiency in the nation. Both play at a slightly slower than average tempo as well.

The first game between these two finished at 106 points. Merrimack relies heavily on getting to the line to score, but Stonehill doesn't foul much at all. Stonehill relies on long range shots, but Merrimack is first in the league in 3 point defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The USF Bulls and Memphis Tigers already met once this season. Memphis won a 93-86 track meet of a game. That game was played to a whopping 83 possessions. The Tigers shot 35 free throws and the Bulls shot 22 free throws. The teams combined to have 31 offensive rebounds.

Memphis always wants to run. The Tigers are 10th in average possession length this year. This Memphis team isn't settling for long distance shots as much either. They are taking it to the basket. USF lacks a shot blocker to deter them from getting to the basket here. 

USF changed their style of play this year. This team has previously wanted to play slowly, but Brian Gregory was very adamant that they would push the pace this year and they indeed have done just that. USF is averaging 71.8 possessions per game in the AAC. 

Look for both teams to live on the line here with the way both teams foul. The second chance opportunities will be high again. Barring some very poor shooting I think this gets past the total. I believe this one is several points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a game that will be played at a slow pace. I understand the total here needs to be set pretty low. I still think this total is a little too low. 

A total in the mid 120's is usually reserved for only matchups between two teams who are excellent on defense. These teams aren't great on defense. In fact, both of them are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. 

San Jose State is top 75 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Fresno State has sped up their tempo a bit in recent games. The first meeting between these two was 74-64. I think this one likely tops 130 as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles always want to push the pace. Marquette is 12th in average possession length on the season. The Golden Eagles are also an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. Shaka Smart's are 2nd in shot selection so it hasn't been a fluke. 

UConn is looking for revenge here, and the Huskies offenses has some clear advantages in this game. The Huskies are excellent on the offensive glass, and Marquette gives up a lot of second chance points. UConn has a big height advantage down low, and I think Sanogo and company can have a big game in this one.

The first game got to 158 points total, and there really wasn't anything about that one that stands out as an outlier.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is known for having a lot of teams who play slowly. These two teams are second to last and last in the league in tempo. They are also both above average on defense. It helps that they are both below average on offense as well.

The first game between these two finished 61-57. Shot Quality believes it should have finished 61-55 so it was no fluke that it was low scoring. 

Missouri State has seen 7 of 13 MVC games stay under this very low total in regulation. Southern Illinois has seen 5 stay under this total overall. 

Neither team gets to the line much and both teams have struggled with wasted possessions from turnovers this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think the Kansas State tempo change has been underrated by many. The Wildcats are easily the fastest paced team in the Big 12 under Jerome Tang this year. Texas is third in tempo, and they have actually played faster since Chris Beard has been gone.

The first game between these two was the ridiculous 116-103 win in Austin for Kansas State. I certainly don't expect an NBA score this time, but I do think this total is set too low. I have this being a game that gets into the 150's. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors rank 361st out of 363 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. This team settles for too many contested jumpers. They tend to play slowly as well. Merrimack ranks 288th in overall tempo. Merrimack is excellent on defense though. They have the best defense in the Northeast Conference. Joe Gallo's team runs a unique zone that both slows the game down and keeps opponents out of their normal offenses. 

St. Francis (PA) is relying on hitting a bunch of shots from long range, and Merrimack is best in the conference at defending the 3 ball. St. Francis also doesn't get many second chances, and that is the one weakness of Merrimack (defensive rebounding) on defense. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden hosts this key Big Ten matchup. This is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The first game between these two finished at 127 with some nonsense at the end that led to 9 points in the final 40 seconds of a game that wasn't close. With a tough shooting background and two tough defenses I like the chances of this one staying lower scoring.

Take the under in this early tipoff. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has slipped a lot in Big Ten play. In fact, they are 14th in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. Their biggest problem is giving up far too many easy looks from 3 point range. 

Michigan is more than capable of nailing some shots from long range. Michigan was 10/22 from 3 point range in their 85-78 win over NW a few weeks ago. The Wolverines will try to push the pace here in this one as well.

Northwestern has a history of starting faster in the season and sliding late in the year under Chris Collins. The Wildcats defense is typically what has worsened during the year. We're seeing that pattern again this year. Boo Buie is a good leader on offense and the Wildcats should be able to get some good looks on offense. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been a straight under team of late. You have to go back to December 3rd to find a Division One Wagner contest that finished with a total higher than 131 points. That is 11 straight games staying under this total against DI opponents. Wagner is second in the league in defense and second worst in offense. Their single huge weakness on defense is fouling too much, but Sacred Heart is bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

Sacred Heart is much better defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons. They do try to play quicker, but they aren't efficient on offense.

The first game finished 68-58. I think a total in the upper 120's would have made sense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 59-48. UNC Greensboro has been absolutely locking teams down with their defense of late. The Spartans are a really athletic team that plays great help defense. 

Mercer has been without Kamar Robertson the last couple games due to an injury and he is questionable here. Even with Robertson the offense is a big weakness and without him they are really bad. Mercer has been drastically slowing down their pace of late.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are very good on defense in general. They are fantastic when playing on their home floor. Rutgers has a big home court advantage, and Steve Pikiell's team has been winning because of defense. Rutgers is 2nd in the nation (behind only Tennessee) in defensive efficiency. 

Minnesota has been without Dawson Garcia in their last two games, and he is questionable for this game. The Golden Gophers are averaging just 0.933 points per possession in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers are 296th in overall tempo, so they do slow the game down quite a bit.

Rutgers has been at their best defensively at home against quality competition. They have played seven top 100 teams at home so far this year. They have allowed more than 57 points in regulation only one time. That was Iowa who scored a lot on them, but Minnesota's offense is nothing like Iowa.

Rutgers is allowing just 0.79 points per possession at home against top 100 opponents. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are the slowest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Missouri State is 350th out of 363 teams in the nation in tempo. The Bears have seen 8 of 12 games in the conference stay under this total in regulation. All 8 of those have been 127 points or lower, so there has been some margin there as well.

Missouri State's biggest strength on offensive is their ability to get offensive rebounds. Valparaiso is the 24th best defensive rebounding team in the league. I think they can neutralize much of the Bears presence on the offensive glass.

Valparaiso is using up 18.3 seconds on an average possession in the league, so they have been slowing things down too. 

From an effective field goal percentage standpoint, both of these teams are better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats are 2nd in average possession length in the MAC. They attempt to push the pace. Eastern Michigan is 4th in average possession length and 2nd in overall tempo in the MAC. This should be a fast paced contest.

Eastern Michigan has shot the ball horribly from 3 point range. They should positively regress from long range in the end. This is a team that is shooting just 24% from 3 point range in MAC play. They will finish better than that in league play. Emoni Bates is a tough matchup.

Ohio's offense gets inside the paint a lot, and Eastern Michigan is bottom 20 in the nation at defending the paint. Eastern Michigan gives up all kinds of second chance points and Ohio thrives on the offensive boards.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly has been a very good under team this year. The Mustangs have seen 7 of their last 11 games against Division One opponents finish at 124 points or fewer.  Cal Poly is 330th in tempo in the country. They are also 332nd in offensive efficiency. They are last in trips to the charity stripe in the Big West. Cal Poly has been riddled by wasted possessions due to non steal turnovers on offense this year.

Cal State Fullerton is third in the Big West in defensive efficiency. They just held a good UC Irvine team to 61 points in a win. They are reliant on the three point shot falling on offense, and this is a quality Cal Poly defense when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

A slow pace and a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs just beat Portland 115-75 recently. They beat them 104-72 last year. Portland really struggles to defend the 3 point line, and they don't have a shot blocker inside either. The Bulldogs should be able to get out in transition against this Portland team.

Portland's offense has been much more efficient at home. The Pilots should find open looks here against a Gonzaga defense that has been really weak this year. Gonzaga ranks in the bottom half of the country in effective field goal percentage defense and shot selection allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have an interim coach in Rodney Terry who seems to be pushing the tempo a bit more than Chris Beard was. Texas has had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Texas is 29th in average possession length this year, so they are really moving. In their last 12 games, 10 of them have finished at 134 points or higher. Texas is better on offense than defense this year.

The Tennessee defense is excellent, but they appear due for at least some regression. The Volunteers also commit quite a few fouls, and Texas has been getting to the line a lot lately. I think Texas can put some scoring pressure on them.

Tennessee has the edge from beyond the arc in this game on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Nicholls State team is much different than last year's team. Nicholls is playing almost 6 possessions per game slower in league play than they did a year ago. They have played the 62nd toughest slate of offenses this year. They have faced only the 201st toughest slate of defenses so far this season.

Incarnate Word has always been one of the slower paced teams in the Southland Conference. Incarnate Word is 342nd in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Both of these teams struggle with good offensive rebounding teams, but neither of these teams have been good on the offensive glass this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Elon Phoenix already played once this year. That was a very slow 59 possession game where Drexel won 62-50. This might be a tick faster, but I still expect a very slow tempo. 

Elon is 338th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Phoenix have all sorts of issues getting open looks. They are gradually slowing their tempo as the season has moved along. They don't get to the line much or get many second chance points.

Drexel is 61st in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. The Dragons are coming off a terrible second half performance against North Carolina A&T last game and I think they'll be better here. They are great at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been putting up big numbers even with their secondary guys in Farrakhan and Acuff shooting the ball far worse than their career averages from the 3 point line. I think their numbers regress positively toward the mean from long distance. Emoni Bates is a matchup nightmare for everyone in the MAC. The problem for E Michigan is their defense is just atrocious. They give up all kinds of second chance points, and their defense in the paint is awful.

Miami Ohio has been better at home, while the Eastern Michigan offense has been more efficient on the road. 

Miami shoots 79.4% from the line and E Michigan is bottom 45 in the country in FTA/FGA defensively. E Michigan shoots 74.5% and Miami has committed more fouls in MAC play than any other team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stetson Hatters have improved their offensive efficiency a great deal this year. Stetson has 3 guys on their team getting a bunch of minutes who all shoot 41% or higher from 3 point range. Stetson is going to put up a bunch of shots from long range, and Queens has struggled badly defending beyond the arc this year. 

Queens has been a great over team this season. They are 79th in tempo. They are also 31st in effective field goal percentage offense and 302nd in the nation on defense. The Royals have seen 4 of their last 5 games finish at 166 points or more. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Abilene Christian Wildcats have the fastest average possession length in the conference, and it isn't very close. This team is using full court pressure and trying to get out in transition where they are more efficient. Grand Canyon no longer has great ball handlers with Blacksher injured. 

Grand Canyon is playing a bit faster this year. They are also much more efficient on offense. Grand Canyon put up 95 points in their game against Abilene last year. The Antelopes of Grand Canyon are worse on defense this season. They aren't nearly as good at defending the long range jumper. 

Grand Canyon's last three games finished at 150 points or higher. Eight of their last nine have shot quality expected scores of at least 139 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are first in the Ohio Valley Conference in defensive efficiency. SIU Edwardsville has focused on this end of the floor in the past year, and it is really showing right now. This team is forcing a lot of turnovers, and Tennessee Tech is likely to waste quite a few possessions in this one.

The SIU Edwardsville offense is highly reliant on their ability to get to the free throw line. In fact, they are 18th in FTA/FGA in the country. That could be a problem here though since Tenn Tech is 8th in FTA/FGA allowed. The Golden Eagles are best in the conference at defending without fouling. Tenn Tech hosts this game and they have been great defensively at home. They have given up just 63, 62, and 49 points in their last three home games.

The pace here should be relatively slow too. Edwardsville has slowed down through the year, and Tenn Tech is one of the slowest teams in the conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights have really hit the brakes of late. Bellarmine is 360th in tempo out of 363 teams in the country. They are averaging 20 seconds per possession. They have played eight of their last nine games under this total. The Knights almost never get to the line and they don't get second chances very often at all either. Bellarmine is first at defending without fouling in the Atlantic Sun Conference.

Eastern Kentucky is a fast paced team, but they aren't very efficient and their games have stayed under this number quite a few times. In fact, they have seen 6 of their last 11 games finish at 137 total points or fewer. 

Peter Suder is questionable for this game for Bellarmine which would hurt their scoring ability even more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars and UCF Knights met on December 31. The posted total in that game was 121. We're getting a number much higher here. I think the adjustment here has been a bit too large. 

The first game did go over the total, but both teams shot the ball better than you would expect in a game with two excellent defenses. UCF is 36th in defensive efficiency and 31st in effective field goal percentage defense. Houston is 2nd in defensive efficiency and 2nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Houston is coming off a stunning loss to Temple. I expect Kelvin Sampson's team to lock things down on defense here. The Cougars have elite shot blockers in the paint to bother UCF 

UCF's defense has been much better at home, and I think they can make things tough on Houston too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos defense ranks 343rd in defensive efficiency and 345th in effective field goal percentage defense (out of 363 teams in the nation). Western Michigan puts up a bunch of long range jumpers on offense, and Ohio does struggle against the 3 point shot. The Bobcats are 275th in 3 point FG percentage defense. Western Michigan's Lamar Norman and Javaughn Hannah are capable of getting hot from the outside. 

Ohio is averaging 1.11 points per possession at home this year. The Bobcats are 50th quickest in average possession length in the country. They have put up big numbers on their home floor, and I see no reason to believe they won't do the same in this one.

The Bobcats should control the pace, and Western Michigan has been happy to run with the fastest paced teams in the league so far this year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks are a perfect team for a very low scoring game. St. Peter's plays at a really slow pace. The Peacocks are awful on offense. They are pretty good on defense. The one thing that can sometimes get them is they foul too much. Niagara is their opponent here though, and the Purple Eagles don't get to the line very much.

Niagara ranks 361st in average possession length. The Purple Eagles are also better on defense than offense. 

St. Peter's is 353rd in average possession length. This will be one of the slowest paced games you will ever see.

St. Peter's has played four straight games under this total in regulation. Three of the four have been 110 points or fewer in regulation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Craig Smith's Utah Utes are playing some really good defense this year. Smith's teams in the past at South Dakota and Utah State have been excellent on defense. They play tremendous help side defense. The Utes should make it tough on a Washington offense that isn't consistent at all.

Washington's matchup zone can be tricky to beat, and Utah isn't loaded with outside shooters by any means.

I think this one is a few points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots are a different team playing at home. Portland is averaging 1.103 points per possession at home (0.95 on the road). They are also playing 2.2 possessions per game faster on their home court. 

Pepperdine is allowing just 0.97 points per possession at home, but they are on the road here and they are allowing 1.10 points per possession on the road. Pepperdine is averaging 74.6 possessions per game on the road.

This is a very high total, but this should be a track meet between the two teams who rank last and second to last in the WCC in defensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for overs through the years. There isn't very much defense played by many teams in this conference. The over is cashing at better thna 56% in Big Sky conference games in the last 8 years. 

Northern Arizona is one of the worst defenses in the conference. According to Shot Quality, Northern Arizona is 345th in shot selection allowed out of 363 teams in the country.

Eastern Washington is a fast paced team, and they are the most efficient offense in the Big Sky. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best defenses in the country. Iowa State is 6th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Iowa State is first in turnover percentage forced on defense. Oklahoma State lacks good ball handlers, and they are likely to waste a lot of possessions on offense here.

Oklahoma State is always good defensively under Boynton and they are again this year. Iowa State likes to get into the paint, but Oklahoma State is third in the nation in blocked shots percentage. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgetown Hoyas have the worst defense in the Big East, and it isn't close. Xavier is averaging 1.18 points per possession for the season. The Musketeers push the pace. Xavier is averaging 15.9 seconds per possession on offense. They are going to push in transition here, and Georgetown's transition defense has been dreadful. In transition opponents are averaging 1.45 points per possession against the Hoyas.

Xavier put up 102 points in the first meeting. They aren't likely to score that many here, but I think they put up a big number.

Both teams have a poor 3 point defense. Georgetown should get behind and then push the pace more as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison host the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles on Thursday night in a huge Summit League showdown. North Dakota State beat Oral Roberts all three times they played them last year, but Oral Roberts has been the best team in the league so far this year. ORU will be looking for revenge here.

The big difference between Oral Roberts last year and this year is their ability to guard. Oral Roberts gave up 1.07 points per possession in the league last year. They are giving up just 0.929 points per possession in the league this year. Their pace is a bit slower as well.

North Dakota State is a defense first team who prefers to slow the game down. The Bison have played the 65th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and only the 295th toughest slate of defenses. Their numbers are skewed and their defense is a pretty good one.

This is too high of a number for too good defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green are a very good under team. The Mean Green went extremely slow last year. They were the slowest paced team in the country. They are once again the slowest paced team in the country. Last year, North Texas averaged using 21.2 seconds per possession. This year they are averaging using 22.3 seconds per possession in Conference USA play. 

North Texas' highest game total this year has been 136 points. That is remarkable in 19 games. North Texas has two games that has finished 132 points as well. All the rest of the games have been under this total.

Last year when North Texas played Rice three times they beat them by scores of 75-43, 67-44, and 68-50. 

Rice is a similar team offensively this year as last season. The Owls are a little better on defense as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Scarlet Knights have played two of their last four games to a regulation total of 114 points. 

Rutgers is up against a Michigan State team that is very defensive minded this year. Michigan State is 36th in defensive efficiency. They have also faced the second toughest slate of offenses so far this year. Michigan State's defense is very battle tested. 

Michigan State is 309th in tempo this year. The Spartans are playing much slower than they have in recent seasons. Rutgers also prefers a slow pace and a game in the halfcourt. 

Open shots should be tough to come by in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chattanooga Mocs run some great offensive sets with Dan Earl as their head coach. The Mocs rank first in the nation in floor spacing. They also rank 97th percentile in shot making. 

Chattanooga takes a lot of 3's, and they have a big edge here against Furman. The Mocs are 28th in 3 point field goal percentage. The Furman Bulldogs are 271st at defending the 3 so far this year. 

Furman has the fastest average possession length of any team in the SoCon. The Paladins are 6th in effective field goal percentage offense. Chattanooga is a below average defense.

Both teams put up a bunch of shots from long range and they have a clear advantage against the defense in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels rank first in the Mountain West in tempo. UNLV is using only 16 seconds on an average possession this year. They are forcing a bunch of steals and getting out in transition as often as possible.

Utah State ranks first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. UNLV is allowing 40% from 3 in the MWC thus far this season. The Aggies will get open shots from long distance in this one.

Utah State ranks 56th overall in the nation in tempo too. They aren't likely to try to slow the pace down here. The last meeting between these two was 90-75.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed their style of play of late. Western Michigan is pushing the pace a lot more of late. They are averaging over 72 possessions per game in the Mid American Conference action so far this season. 

Western Michigan has scored 85 and 108 points in their last two games. They won't be able to keep that up, but this offense appears to be getting much better. Lamar Norman is capable of going off at anytime too.

Ball State is 75th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Cardinals take good shots and they run good sets. They are up against a Western Michigan team that ranks 357th in effective field goal percentage defense. Ball State should get a lot of open looks. Ball State is 4th in FTA/FGA too. 

Both offenses have a clear advantage here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Charlotte brings the really slow pace here. They are the second slowest paced team in the country out of 363 teams. UTEP is 251st in pace.

UTEP's offense is 332nd out of 363 in efficiency. They are a terrible shooting team. They are second worst in the nation in both 3 point percentage and free throw percentage. On the other side, UTEP is excellent on defense. The Miners are 58th in defensive efficiency.

Charlotte is elite at getting defensive rebounds and defending without fouling.

UTEP has seen 6 of their 15 games against Division One opponents have a total of 118 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Charlotte has had 5 games go to 118 points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves haven't scored more than 62 points in a road game all season. Bradley has been good on offense at home, but on the road their games have been staying well under the total. 

Bradley has the best defense in the MVC. The Braves are 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 16th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Drake is much improved on defense. The Bulldogs are 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, so Bradley shouldn't get many second chances. Drake's offense is less efficient this year since they have fewer quality scoring options.

Neither of these teams get to the line very often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been excellent on offense for many years, so many expected them to be that once again this year. They aren't even close to the same team. South Dakota State now ranks in the 30th percentile in the nation in shot selection. They don't have the guys to space the floor any more. 

South Dakota is relying heavily on the 3 ball, but South Dakota State's defense has been good especially on the perimeter. 

This is a game where I believe this total is too high for this version of S Dakota State. The oddsmakers are trying to catch up to this very weak offense of the Jackrabbits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan "Jelly" Walker and UAB are one of the fastest paced teams in the country. UAB puts up a lot of 3 pointers, and the LA Tech Bulldogs are among the worst in the nation in defending beyond the arc. UAB also has a huge edge on second chance opportunities against a LA Tech defense that is terrible on the defensive glass.

LA Tech should find points with their pressure and breakaway scores after a steal. UAB has struggled getting back in transition this year. They also take the ball to the basket a lot, and UAB is lacking shot blockers in the paint.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SE Missouri State Redhawks are going to make you play their style of basketball. This team is 21st in the nation in tempo. They play a very helter skelter style. They are pressing and fouling a bunch. This team is 356th in defending without fouling out of 363 teams in the country.

Morehead State is good at getting to the free throw line, and they are shooting an excellent 76% from the charity stripe. Morehead State is no longer a defensive powerhouse with Broome now down at Auburn swatting shots for the Tigers. 

Five of SE Missouri State's last seven games have gotten to 155 points or higher.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have a pretty good zone defense that can really bother many opponents. They play a full court matchup zone press that actually looks to slow the game down. 

Merrimack is dead last in the nation (#363) in offensive efficiency. They take a lot of bad shots, and they aren't making them. Merrimack continues to put up a bunch of long range jumpers, but they shoot just 27% from 3 point range.

Stonehill has been good at defending without fouling in the conference, and they have slowed their pace down a lot in conference play. 

Merrimack has seen 8 of their last 9 stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have seen 13 of their 17 games this year stay under this very low total. North Texas ranks last in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers, and FAU is playing excellent defense so far this year.

The first game between these two was 50-46. Last year when these teams met it was 54-51. Florida Atlantic is playing slower than they did a year ago and they are much better on defense. 

North Texas does foul quite a bit, but FAU is bottom 50 in the country in getting to the line. I think we see another hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles (great name) play at a really quick tempo. They are 32nd in the country in pace. Little Rock is 59th in tempo. There should be a lot of quick possessions and run outs in transition here.

Southern Indiana is the favorite here and they are very good with second chance points and getting to the free throw line. Those are two huge weaknesses of the Little Rock defense. 

Little Rock excels in getting steals and quick scores, and Southern Indiana doesn't take good care of the basketball. That should result in some easy looks for the Trojans here.

The spread is right around the point where a late foul fest could help out a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have had a couple games where their offense looks much improved, but overall this is still a very weak offense. Eastern Illinois is 353rd in offensive efficiency out of 363 teams in the country. Eastern Illinois is up against an SIU Edwardsville team that is much improved on defense this year. Edwardsville is 105th in effective field goal percentage defense.

SIU Edwardsville is 272nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line. Over his career, Marty Simmons' teams have been pretty good at defending without fouling. 

I expect a lot of wasted possessions with both teams committing a lot of careless turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IUPUI Jaguars aren't a team I expected to be taking an over with this year, but here we are. IUPUI was historically bad on offense last year. They aren't good this year, but they are far better than they were a year ago. IUPUI is also playing 5 possessions per game faster than they were a year ago. 

IUPUI was 356th in effective field goal percentage offense and 294th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are up to 303rd on offense this year and all the way down to 357th on defense. 

Fort Wayne is 104th in tempo, and I think they will look to run when they can in this matchup. They put up a lot of 3's and they will get open looks in bunches against IUPUI.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies do like to play quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. UC Davis just put the clamps down on Cal State Bakersfield and held them to 48 points in their last game. 

UC Davis held Cal State Northridge to 47 and 49 points in their two meetings last year. The Aggies defense can struggle against teams who are really good from long range, but Northridge is weak from the 3 point line. 

The Cal State Northridge Matadors are one of the slowest paced teams in the Big West. It will be rare to see them with a total set this high. Northridge is pretty good at defending in the paint, and UC Davis usually likes to attack the basket.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers are pressing a lot this year, and getting out in transition quickly off steals. Missouri ranks first in the nation in potential quick points off breakaway steals so far this season. Missouri is one of the shortest teams in the nation, and they are going to be taken advantage of on the glass by many teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is great on the offensive boards.

Texas A&M has wanted to push the pace this year when they can. This is a great opportunity for them to run in this game. They are second in the SEC in average possession length thus far this season. 

Both teams should get to the line a lot in this one. The two defenses are aggressive and foul a lot. These two teams are shooting 73% and 76% from the free throw line. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dayton Flyers have an elite defense. Dayton is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Dayton is the second tallest team in the country. The Flyers are excellent at blocking shots. They are great on the defensive boards. They also do a great job defending without fouling.

Fordham has been very weak on offense in the Atlantic 10 so far this year. The Rams scored just 43 points against Davidson. They put up 66 against a bad St. Joe's defense too. This Fordham team is 33rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are much better defensively than they are on offense.

Dayton is just 111th in offensive efficiency. The Flyers have far too many wasted possessions due to turnovers.

I think Dayton slows the pace down and both defenses have the edge over the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have seen 8 straight games finish below this posted total. St. Peter's doesn't have enough shot makers on this team. The Peacocks are 348th in effective field goal percentage offense. They also rank 342nd in average possession length. The Peacocks play good halfcourt defense, but do get bitten by their tendency to foul quite a bit. It helps them that Canisius is the worst team in the MAAC at getting to the free throw line. 

Canisius is 317th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Golden Griffins have scored 64, 60, and 64 points in their last three games. Canisius takes a lot of shots from long range, but the strength of the Peacocks is defending the 3 point line.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies are one of the few good defenses in the Big Sky Conference. Montana also prefers to play at a slow pace. Montana fouls at a very high rate, and many of their opponents have been feasting at the line. When handicapping the Grizzlies games this year, it will be really important to look at their opponent and how aggressive they are taking it to the basket and getting to the line.

Northern Arizona has ranked dead last in the Big Sky Conference in FTA/FGA in each of the last two seasons. They are running at the same very low rate again so far this year. Northern Arizona ranks in the 4th percentile in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Lumberjacks are taking too many mid range contested jumpers.

Montana's last four meetings against Northern Arizona have all finished with a score at the end of regulation of 123 points or fewer combined. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 331st in average possession length. Will Ryan's team wants to slow the game down. Green Bay is reliant on getting to the line on offense, because their halfcourt sets have been terrible. Fort Wayne is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage and they are 10th in the nation at defending without fouling. Green Bay is likely to have a lot of wasted possessions from turnvoers as well.

Fort Wayne is an inconsistent offense. They aren't able to get to the basket very well, and Green Bay has been worst at defending the paint. 

Both of these teams have played much tougher slates of offenses than defenses, so I see their numbers as a bit skewed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have always been very good at home under Steve Pikiell, but they are coming off a win at #1 ranked Purdue last game. Rutgers is a top five defense in the country so far this year. Omoruyi is an absolute monster patrolling the paint on the defensive end. Maryland is going to have a very hard time trying to get into the paint at all in this one. 

These two teams are both top 12 in the nation in 3 point defense. The Terrapins are coming off a dreadful performance against Michigan, and I do think they'll be better on defense here. Kevin Willard is a defensive minded coach first. Rutgers can go on long scoring droughts at times, and Maryland is above average on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have played a bunch of really good defenses so far this year. Nevada toyed with playing slower earlier in the season, but Steve Alford's teams usually like to run and they are back to playing much faster in recent weeks. They just put up 78 and 75 points respectively on Boise State and Air Force, two good defensive teams who usually play low scoring games. 

Colorado State is 30th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense, but the Rams are 241st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team who is giving up far too many open looks from long range. Nevada takes a lot of shots from 3 point range, and they should get a lot of clean looks here.

Nevada gets to the line a lot and shoots 79.5% from 3 point range. The Wolf Pack should get to the stripe a solid amount here.

This total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks don't typically shy away from a track meet with Eric Musselman as their head coach. Arkansas has been ranked in the top 45 in the nation in tempo in each of his seasons with the team. They sit at #37 so far this year. The Razorbacks are all about attacking the basket. They can struggle on offense against great interior defenses. Missouri isn't a good interior defense. The Tigers force a bunch of turnovers and get out in transition quickly off those, but they don't have enough shot blockers inside, and they are very poor on the defensive glass. I think Arkansas can score in the paint here.

The Missouri offense is much better this year. I love what Dennis Gates is doing with this team. D'Moi Hodge is a big addition to the team with his attacking ability and tremendous ability to steal the basketball and immediately turn it into transition opportunities. Missouri ranks second in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers are #28 in tempo. They will push the issue.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have played 9 of their last 10 games under this total. Bradley is a top 25 defense in the country. The Braves also rely on a lot of 3 point jumpers on offense. They are up against a Murray State team who has been in the top 35 in each of the last two seasons in 3 point defense. 

Murray State is 224th in tempo. The Racers have been far more reliable on defense this year than on offense. This is a very young team. They do have athleticism and quickness, but they don't have a great game plan on offense right now.

Bradley and Murray State are both above average on both the defensive glass and defending without fouling. The pace of this game should be slow based on the quality transition defense of both teams and the preference to slow things down from the two offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are first in the nation in defensive efficiency and it isn't close. Tennessee is also first in the nation in effective field goal percentage and 3 point defense. They are third in turnovers forced rate and blocked shots rate as well. A fantastic defense for Rick Barnes and the Vols this year.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are defense first under Chris Jans as well. The Bulldogs are sixth in the NFL in defensive efficiency. This team is really scrappy and they defend without fouling (7th in the nation in FTA/FGA on defense). 

Tennessee has seen 6 of 13 games go under this very low total. Miss State has seen 6 of 13 games go under this total too. 

Both offenses have some real weaknesses. Tennessee doesn't shoot it well from 3 and they rely heavily on second chance points. Miss State turns it over too much and they also don't shoot the ball well in general (from 3 or from the FT line).

The defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are always good on defense under Steve Pikiell, but this is the best defense he has had yet. Cliff Omoruyi is a shot blocking machine down low, and excellent defensive rebounder. Even the Rutgers guards and wings have a lot of length, and that makes them a tough team to get clean looks against. Rutgers is 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year.

Purdue was 5th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 95th so far this year. Zach Edey will still do damage down low here, but Purdue definitely misses Jaden Ivey. The Boilers are better on defense this year though. Purdue was 134th in effective field goal percentage defense a year ago, and they are 22nd this year. 

Purdue has slowed their pace down a bit without Ivey pushing the pace also. I see this as a game where both teams struggle to find open looks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are pushing the pace more this year. Tulane was 109th in average possession length last year. Tulane is 14th so far this year in average possession. The Green Wave are 3rd in turnover percentage on offense. They are also shooting an impressive 81.4% from the free throw line. Tulane should get to the line a lot here against a Memphis team that fouls a lot.

The Memphis Tigers were 56th in average possession length last year. Memphis now sits at 23rd in average possession length so far this season. The Tigers have been playing at a really fast pace in recent games. They have had a bunch of high scoring games recently. Shot Quality confirms that these games haven't been a fluke either. In fact, based on the quality of shots taken in those games Shot Quality believes Memphis' games should have finished with 159 points or more in seven straight games.

A track meet here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins do a great job running high quality offensive sets. They are looking for open 3's or shots near the rim. Furman is 15th in near proximity offense. Western Carolina is 274th in defending those near proximity shots close to the rim. Furman should get open 3's against a terrible perimeter defense here too.

Western Carolina is due for some shooting regression in a positive way at some point soon. The Catamounts are good at getting to the line. They have shot the ball poorly from 3, but Furman doesn't guard beyond the arc well.

Both teams prefer to push tempo (especially Furman who is the better team). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wichita State Shockers are 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Wichita State is top 15 in the country in both 2 point and 3 point defense. This is a team that works extremely hard on this end of the floor. Open shots should be very tough to come by for the East Carolina Pirates.

East Carolina's defense should get better as the season goes. Mike Schwartz is known as a defensive guru. The Pirates have held three straight teams to 56, 49, and 59 points in their last three games. 

Both teams are subpar on offense and rely on low quality shots. The pace should be very slow here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders don't have the offensive firepower they have had the last few years. They lost Grant Golden and Jacob Gilyard who were the guys that made everything go for the offense. Richmond has reinvented themselves as a really good defensive team though. The Spiders have played a lot of good offenses, and they are 72nd in defensive efficiency. They also have slowed their pace down to 302nd in the nation.

George Mason has played a lot of teams who want to run of late (Hofstra, Toledo, Coppin State, Tulane). That has meant some higher scoring games for them. Overall though, this is a George Mason team that wants to play relatively slow. The Patriots are much better on defense than offense too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dayton is 21st in defensive efficiency and 14th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Flyers are also 324th in overall tempo in the nation. Dayton has had loads of very low scoring games. 

Davidson has been attacking the basket more this year, but Dayton has all kinds of length on the inside. The Flyers are the second tallest team in the country. They rank in the top 25 in blocked shots percentage. Davidson's offense is far less efficient than the last couple years, but their defense is much better.

I think this number has gotten several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two teams who really want to slow the pace down. When they meet I expect us to see an extremely slow tempo. It wouldn't surprise me to see a pace of 59 or 60 possessions in this game. 

Mt. St. Mary's is using 20.6 seconds per possession in their league games. Niagara is using 21.6 seconds per possession in their league games.

Both teams turn it over too much and neither team gets to the line much. This should be an ugly one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs and Cal State Northridge Matadors play a similar style. Both of them really slow the pace down. They both also struggle to get good looks from the floor. They have poor spacing and don't run very good sets. They are reliant on getting to the free throw line in order to score much at all.

The two meetings between these two last year were 123 points and then 118 in regulation (the game went into double OT in the second meeting). I see this one falling in a similar range in the low 120's.

Both teams are very good on the defensive glass and both waste a lot of possessions with turnovers on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Rio Grande Valley ranks first in the nation (out of 361 teams) in tempo. UT Rio Grande hasn't had a single game against a Division One team play to a pace slower than 74 possessions. They have played three games in a row at faster than 80 possessions. That is blazing fast.

Utah Tech is a team that tends to play to the pace of their opponent. They played an 85-74 game against UT Rio Grande Valley last year, and that was with fewer FT's (and a terrible FT shooting percentage) in that game.

UT Rio Grande Valley is #1 in FTA/FGA and Utah Tech is #21. Both teams foul more than an average team. There should be a parade to the line here in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played 12 games this year. The highest combined total in a North Texas game is 132 points. The other 11 games have all finished with 123 points or fewer. The one game that went to 132 points got there because Abou Ousmane went 15/19 from the floor and scored 37 points. This is a guy who wasn't even averaging double figures per game going into that game (their last contest). 

Florida Atlantic lost 54-51 at home last year against North Texas. The Owls couldn't speed up the game like they wanted against North Texas. Florida Atlantic wants to push when they can, but North Texas is the slowest paced team in the country. The Mean Green force their style of play onto the opposition.

FAU is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense. North Texas is 20th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers have the best defense in the country. Tennessee is third in the nation in turnover percentage on defense. They are first in 3 point FG percentage defense. They are first in effective field goal percentage defense.

Ole Miss is 52nd in defensive efficiency. The Rebels are have had bad luck on "free throw defense" or their overall defensive numbers would look even better than they do. This Ole Miss team has good length on the inside, and they have a bunch of shot blockers.

Last year when these two met it was 66-60 in OT. Before OT it was 51-51. Two years ago it was 52-50 when they met. 

These are two defensive teams who prefer to play in the halfcourt and their style of play has led to lower scoring games against each other.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles picked up some nice transfers in the offseason. Southern Miss is led by Felipe Haase who is a star big man who transferred in from Mercer. Austin Crowley is a really good player as well, and he transferred in from Ole Miss. 

Southern Miss has decided to pick up their pace a lot of late. The Golden Eagles have played four games in a row to a pace of 74 possessions or quicker. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted their numbers enough for this change.

UNLV wants to run as well. The Rebels are 30th in the nation in quickest average possession length. They excel at getting quick steals and scores.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wichita State Shockers defense is excellent. Wichita State is 10th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They don't force a lot of turnovers, but Texas Southern is an extremely poor shooting team. The Tigers have been held to 57 points or fewer in regulation in six of their first ten games against Division One opponents. Wichita State's defense should lock them down as well.

Wichita State is 306th in the nation in tempo. The Shockers have scored 56 points or less four times this season. They rely too much on midrange jumpers. Texas Southern's defense isn't bad, and they do have a couple shot blockers on the inside. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played 11 games so far this year. All 11 of those games have finished with 123 combined points or fewer. That is remarkable given that they have played some faster paced teams (Long Beach State and UMass for example) and still kept the games very low scoring.

North Texas is excellent at forcing their style of play onto their opponent. The Mean Green are dead last in average possession length, using up 21.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. They are also excellent on the defensive end.

UTSA has been inconsistent this year. The Roadrunners were held to 55 points by Grambling and they were held to 55 points by Texas A&M Corpus Christi as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are terrible in halfcourt offense. They rely on getting steals and quick scores to get their points. UNC Greensboro is top 30 in the country in preventing steals and breakaway scores.

UNC Greensboro has been very good at controlling the pace. The Spartans were able to slow the pace down against Marshall, Hofstra, and UMBC. 

These two teams rank 316th and 341st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. I would expect a lot of missed shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one has dropped down to a spot where I have to take the over. Jayden Stone did miss last game for Detroit and he is questionable here due to an illness. Detroit did get back Grant Liddell a few games ago, and he has been great on offense down low. The Titans are led by sensational scorer Antoine Davis. 

Detroit has allowed 92 points or more in three of their last eight games overall. The Titans defense ranks 330th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Cincinnati is much better offensively this year. The Bearcats have scored 81 points or more in seven of their 12 games this year. They have scored 86 points or more in six of those contests. The Bearcats tempo is 54th fastest in the country in average possession length. 

Detroit should be playing from behind and needing to keep the tempo relatively quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tennessee has been the best defense in the country so far this year, and it isn't even close. Rick Barnes' team is putting in some great effort on the defensive end of the floor. 

The Volunteers are worse on offense than they were a year ago. They rank 275th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are even better on defense this year compared to last season. They are also playing a bit slower.

Austin Peay has major offensive problems. They scored only 50 on NC State, 44 against Purdue, and 55 against lowly Howard. I don't know if they can get to 50 against Tennessee.

I made this one a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The High Point Panthers are playing a whole new brand of basketball under G.G. Smith this year. They are pushing the pace to the extreme. High Point ranks 14th in overall tempo this season. The Panthers offense has been really good, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. High Point has allowed at least 82 points in each of their last four games. 

High Point's games have been really high scoring this year, and according to ShotQuality's expected results it has been no fluke. Eight of their nine games against Division One opponents have finished with a ShotQuality expected total score of 159 points or more.

East Carolina has been great at getting to the line and they get a lot of second chance points. High Point struggles badly on the defensive glass, and they foul at a high rate as well. The Pirates have already had several very high scoring games against fast paced opponents (Indiana State, Toledo, and Coppin State). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Lafayette is 360th out of 361 teams in average possession length. This is a team that is doing its best to stall throughout the game. Lafayette ranks in the 7th percentile at ShotQuality in shot making. They settle for a lot of tough 3 point jumpers. 

La Salle is 310th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 17th percentile in shot making. The Explorers have faced the 308th toughest slate of defenses while they have taken on the 80th toughest slate of offenses.

If the shots are falling it will go over, but more often than not this year the shots haven't fallen for these teams.

A sleepy spot here with an early start during Christmas break. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange were a big disappointment last year. They were really weak on defense last year. Jim Boeheim said in the offseason that his biggest goal for this team was being far better on the defensive end. Syracuse was 207th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 74th so far this year. This team is also playing slower. They have had almost two possessions per game fewer than they had last season. Syracuse was 15th in offensive efficiency last year, but they are only 68th this season.

Pittsburgh has shot blockers on the inside, and Syracuse has been relying on getting into the paint and getting shots near the basket. I think the Panthers can give them a hard time here with their defense.

These two teams are very familiar with each other, and I expect the defenses to have a little bit of a leg up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern State Demons were clearly trying to play at a slower pace earlier this year under their new head coach. That has gone out the window in their last few games. Northwestern State has played three of its past four games to a pace of 76 possessions or faster. That is extremely fast. Those are their three fastest paced games of the year and they have all happened in the last couple weeks. 

Baylor is 59th in average possession length so far this year. The Bears are 6th in offensive efficiency. They have put up at least 87 points against every opponent rated 190th or lower on KenPom's rankings. I think they are capable of scoring into the 90's in this one. Baylor is amazing on the offensive boards. Northwestern State rates dead last in the country in second chance conversion percentage defense. Expect a lot of second chances for Baylor in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a very specific style of play. They haven't been letting teams get them out of that style. Chris Jans is a first year coach for the Bulldogs, and he has them playing his way right out of the gate. The Bulldogs are 337th out of 361 in the country in tempo. They are 7th in defensive efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Drake has faced the 272nd toughest slate of defenses so far this year. Drake is now up against by far the best defense they have faced all season. The Drake Bulldogs have relied a lot on getting to the free throw line, but Mississippi State ranks 10th in the nation in FTA/FGA on defense.

Mississippi State's offense relies heavily on second chance points. Drake is 7th in the nation in second chance conversion points allowed in the country.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. North Dakota has been 280th or worse in four straight seasons in 3 point defense percentage allowed. St. Thomas is well known for taking a ton of shots from long range. St. Thomas is shooting 40.9% from 3 point range so far this year. They have four great shooters from the outside. 

St. Thomas is 343rd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have faced a very weak slate of opposing offenses and they still have very ugly defensive numbers on the whole. North Dakota is decent from long range, and they will have open long range jumpers here too.

Both games between these two last year easily cleared this total. The spread is set a number where a late foul fest wouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chattanooga Mocs are an excellent offensive team. Dan Earl has been known for years as an offensive mastermind. He did a fantastic job with the VMI offense. He brought star 7 footer Jake Stephens with him and now the Mocs are looking tremendous on offense as well. 

Stephens is a matchup nightmare. He is 19/38 from 3 point range on the year, and he is a good passer for a big man as well. The Mocs take a ton of 3's, and Belmont's weakness on defense since Casey Alexander has been their head coach has been their 3 point defense. Chattanooga has scored 81 points or more in five straight games.

Belmont pushes the pace, and the Bruins like to put up a lot of shots from long range too. The Bruins are shooting 41% from 3 point range this year. Chattanooga is 243rd in defensive efficiency. The Mocs are not very good in transition defense and Belmont should take advantage.

Take the over.