Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year on Bengals/Bucs OVER

We are getting some great value here with this relatively low total between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. This is largely due to the UNDER having cashed in each the Bengals last 3 games and the Buccaneers last 5.

To no surprise the Bengals offense has got back on track with A.J. Green returning to the lineup. Cincinnati put up 27 points a couple weeks ago at New Orleans and 22 last week against the Texans. Both of those defenses provided more of a challenge than what the Bengals will face when they take on Tampa Bay. Defensively the Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring (27.3 ppg) and 22nd in yards allowed (367.9 ypg).

The thing you have to keep in mind with Tampa Bay's defensive numbers is those are aided by an extremely soft schedule. Through 11 games the Buccaneers have faced just three teams who currently have a winning record. It's also worth noting that Tampa Bay has been vulnerable to big plays in the passing game, where they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their attempts with an 7.2 average/completion. Cincinnati should have no problem scoring 24+ points.

While the Bengals offense looks to be in line for a nice day, I don't think their defense is going to play up to their potential in this one. Cincinnati will be playing their 3rd straight game on the road and that really takes a toll on a defense. They also are taking a big step down in competition and that typically leads to defenses relaxing and not preparing like the should.

The other big key here is that Tampa Bay's offense has really started to come alive in the 2nd half. The Buccaneers are averaging 356.3 ypg over their last 3, which is a huge improvement over their season average of 318.2. A big reason for their uptick has been the emergence of rookie wide out Mike Evans, who has caught 24 passes for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games. This unit is poised for a breakout performance and I think we could see them eclipse 30 points for the first time this season.

Adding to all of this is a great system that's in play. The OVER is 23-4 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has gone under the total by at least 7 points in each of their last 3 games (Bengals). That's a 85% system! Take the OVER!

3* NFL Week 13 Total Annihilator on Giants/Jaguars OVER

With the Giants and Jaguars both out of the playoff picture in their respective conferences, I'm not expecting the intensity to be there for either of these teams when they take the field Sunday. A lack of motivation typically favors the offenses and I'm expecting that to be the case in this one.

The offense wasn't the problem for New York in last week's 28-31 home loss to the Cowboys, as the Giants put up 28 points (2nd highest output this season) on 417 yards of total offense. Eli Manning looked as comfortable as we have seen him all season, completing 29 of 40 attempts for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.

There's no question that the Giants offense has received a big emotional boost from rookie wide out Odell Beckham Jr., who had one of the best catches I've ever seen last week against Dallas. It wasn't just one big play. Beckham had 10 receptions for 146 yards and two scores. His emergence along with a healthy Rashad Jennings at running back has New York finally taking the form that they had hoped they would start the season with.

The Giants shouldn't have any problem carrying over that momentum offensively against a Jacksonville defense that comes in ranked 30th in total defense (388.2 ypg) and 31st in scoring defense (27.7 ypg). There's every reason to believe New York will score 28+ points.

What will keep a lot of people from taking the OVER in this game is they won't be confident in the Jaguars adding enough offense to push this over the mark. However, I don't see that being a problem against a Giants defense that is in for a major letdown after a brutal 6-game stretch that saw them go against the Eagles, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, 49ers, and Cowboys a second time.

Another important aspect here is that while we are getting to the point of the season where conditions turn for the worse and games typically see a lot less scoring, that's not an issue with this one being played in Jacksonville.

OVER is 5-1 in the Giants' last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 in the month of November. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Jaguars last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system. Take the OVER!

4* Big 10 Total of the Month on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER

With a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, I'm expecting a defensive battle similar to what we saw last year. The Badgers edged out a 20-7 win at Minnesota last season, which fell well below the total set of 51 points.

Both Wisconsin and Minnesota have got to this point behind excellent rushing attacks and strong defense. The Badgers come in ranked 3rd in the country in rushing (343.5 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (16.1 ppg). The Golden Gophers are 25th in rushing (228.9 ypg) and 30th in scoring defense (22.5).

The important thing here is that both offenses are one dimensional with the running game. Minnesota comes in averaging 47 rush attempts to just 18 pass attempts, while Wisconsin averages 46 rush attempts to just 21 pass attempts.

The clock should be running constantly in this one and both offense figure to really have to work to sustain drives. Expect to see a lot of long possessions with a good mix of empty drives and both offenses settling for field goals. Keep in mind last year not only did these two teams combine for just 27 points, together they totaled just 509 yards.

UNDER is 13-4 in all games Kill has coached when his team comes in having covered 3 out of the last 4 and 15-5 in Andersen's last 20 he's coached with his team having 2 out of the last 3. UNDER is also 11-4 in Minnesota's last 15 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. It's also 6-2-1 in Wisconsin's last 9 games in November. These trends combine to form a 75% (49-16) system. Take the UNDER!

5* C-USA Total of the Year on Rice/LA Tech UNDER 50.5

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Both Rice and Louisiana Tech are better defensively than they are offensively. The Owls are only allowing 26.2 ppg on the season and have and are only allowing 19.6 ppg during their current 8-1 run. That's with them giving up 41 on the road to Marshall. The Bulldogs are allowing just 24.6 ppg and that's with giving up 48 to Oklahoma and 45 to Auburn. It's also worth noting that Louisiana Tech is allowing just 15.7 ppg at home.

Both defenses also rank inside the Top 50 in the county in total defense. The Owls are 47th (371.4 ypg) and the Bulldogs are 28th (347.7 ypg). I look for each of these stop units to have a lot of success in this one, as both offenses are pretty one dimensional. Rice is just 77th in passing (213.3 ypg) and Louisiana Tech is a mere 99th in rushing (136.5 ypg).

The situation here also favors a low scoring game, as the winner of this game will win the West and take on Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. You also have to factor in that the tape is out on both of these teams. It's unlikely either of these teams are going to do anything offensively that the opposing defense hasn't prepared for in practice.

The UNDER is 6-0 over the last 3 seasons when Rice faces a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the Owls' last 7 after 3 straight games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. These two trends combine to form a perfect 100% (13-0) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Total of the Year on Missouri/Arkansas UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total after watching Arkansas put up 30 points on Ole Miss and Missouri hanging 29 on Tennessee. What stands out to me is that both of these teams dominated defensively. Arkansas pitched their second straight shutout, while limiting Ole Miss to 316 yards, 19 first downs and 6 turnovers. The Tigers on the other hand allowed just 18 first downs on 279 yards of total offense to the Volunteers.

I believe all signs here point to a defensive battle. Arkansas has clearly turned it up a notch on the defensive side of the ball and the bigger the game the better this team seems to play. Keep in mind that the Razorbacks held Mississippi State to just 17 points on the road and limited Alabama to just 14 at home. Missouri is far from an offensive juggernaut and I could really seem them struggling to sustain drives against Arkansas.

The Tigers offense has been heavily reliant on their running game. Missouri is 55th in rushing (177.6 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (183.1 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Razorbacks defense, which is 20th against the run (120.9 ypg) and are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.7.

At the same time, Missouri's defense looks to be able to keep the Arkansas offense in check. The Tigers wouldn't be playing for a second straight SEC East title if it wasn't for the play of their defense. Missouri comes in 23rd in total defense (335.0 ypg) and most importantly are strong against the run (125.4 ypg, 23rd). Adding to this is the fact that the Tigers are only giving up 3.3 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.6. The Arkansas offense could also be limited here, as starting quarterback Brandon Allen is questionable with a hip injury.

So not only do we have to strong defensive teams that matchup well with the opposing teams' offense, but we have two teams that almost exclusively rely on their running games. It's a perfect recipe for an UNDER, especially when you add in the magnitude of this game with the Tigers playing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

UNDER is 15-5-1 in Arkansas' last 21 road games against a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Missouri's last 7 off a SU win, 5-0 in their last 5 home games and 3-1 this season against strong offensive teams who are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of this one going below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Bears/Lions Thanksgiving Total Dominator on OVER

This might seem like a high total for how well the Lions have played defensively at home, but the these two teams have a history of putting up some points when they face off in Detroit. Last year the two combined for 72 points and in 2012 they combined for 50.

The Bears have too much talent offensively to continue to underperform and I think this will be a game where they have some success. Chicago's offense is built to play inside with two explosive receivers, a talented multipurpose running back and quarterback who can sling the rock. The Bears had one of their best offensive showings of the season at Atlanta dome, scoring 27 points on 478 yards of total offense. There's no question the Lions are a better defensive team than Atlanta, but Chicago should be able to take some of what New England used to put up 34 points and 439 yards on Detroit last week.

The key here is that we don't figure to need an offensive explosion by the Bears to push this over the mark. Detroit's offense is a lot better at home than they are on the road and with Calvin Johnson back at full strength, the Lions are due for a breakout game offensively. Chicago definitely is a good matchup for them to get their offense going. The Bears gave up 51 to the Patriots and 55 to the Packers in their last two road games.

Another thing to keep consider is that with Detroit being so good at stopping the run and so bad at running it offensively, both teams figure to be passing a lot. With the talent at the skill positions, there's going to be some big plays and most importantly a lot of possessions for both sides.

OVER is 11-3 in Chicago's last 14 road games, 9-1 in their last 10 road games with a total set at 42.5 to 49 points and 6-0 in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3. OVER is 29-13 in the Lion's last 42 home games against excellent passing teams who are completing 64% or more of their pass attempts and 33-16-2 in their last 51 after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 73% (88-33) system. Take the OVER!

4* Ravens/Saints MNF Total of the Month on OVER

The books have tried to set a high total here, but it's not high enough. The Saints have scored at least 28 points in each of their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football and are averaging close to 58 points when they take the field in night games. There's just something about the spotlight that brings out the best in Drew Brees. Despite losing back-to-back home games the past two weeks, New Orleans can leave tonight with sole possession of first place in the dreaded NFC South.

Offensively the Saints have not been themselves the past two weeks and this is not an offense you can keep down for long, especially at home. Baltimore looks to be the perfect opponent to get back on track as they come in with 22nd ranked pass defense (251.2 ypg) in the NFL. The big key here is that the Ravens defense hasn't played nearly as good on the road. Baltimore is allowing 25.6 ppg away from home and giving up 285.0 passing ypg on the road.

Not only am I expecting to see a lot of fireworks from the Saints offense, but Baltimore should provide more than enough of a spark offensively to push this over the total. The Ravens are averaging an impressive 26.2 ppg on the road and we have seen the Saints allow 27 points at home the last two weeks against a couple of average offenses in San Francisco and Cincinnati.

For starters, non-conference games have a history of going over the total. In the last 5 seasons the OVER is 354-254 (58%) in non-conference matchups. The OVER is 18-9 in the Ravens last 27 non-conference games and 9-1 in their last 10 games in the 2nd half of the season against great ball control teams (32+ minutes TOP and 21+ first downs per game). The OVER is also 11-3 in the Saints last 14 games under Payton against poor defenses that are allowing 235+ yards/game. These three trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system backing this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* AFC Total of the Month on Dolphins/Broncos OVER

I believe we are catching a very favorable number here due to the Broncos lackluster offensive performance in last week's 7-22 loss to the Dolphins. Peyton Manning is too good a quarterback and has too many weapons to be held in check in back-to-back games. Even with last week's poor showing, the Broncos still come in averaging 29.3 ppg. They have scored 30+ points in 6 of 10 (60%) games this season.

What really stands out to me is how the offense seems to come to life anytime this team is coming off a loss. In Denver's previous 5 regular season losses over the last two seasons they have came back the following week and scored no less than 35 points and all 5 seen a combined total points scored of at least 50.

The other big key here is that Denver's recent poor showings have come on the road. The Broncos are a much stronger team offensively at home. Denver is averaging 34.6 ppg on 420 yards of total offense at Mile High. The thin air really gets to the defenses and that especially figures to be the case for the Dolphins, who are making the long trip out west.

While I wouldn't be shocked if Denver got the total on their own, more than likely we will need Miami's offense to contribute. I believe they will. The Dolphins don't have a great offense, but they have scored at last 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only game they failed to reach the mark is a 16-point effort on the road against the league's best defense in Detroit. Miami has had a few extra days to prepare for Denver after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and that should have their offense scoring more than enough to push this over the mark.

There's also a strong system in play. Over is 58-29 over the last 5 seasons when you have a road team in a game with a total set between 42.5 and 49 points who are averaging 24+ ppg and off a win by 10 or more points. That's a 67% system. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Week 12 Total Dominator on Bengals/Texans OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total of 43.5 points on Sunday. Both of these offenses are coming off strong showings on the road against a couple of quality defenses. The Texans put up 23 points and 424 yards of total offense against the Browns, while the Bengals scored 27 on 405 yards of offense at New Orleans.

The big key here is that while both of these teams played a great defensive game last week, these two defenses have been far from elite in 2014. Cincinnati ranks 28th in total offense, giving up an average of 385.7 ypg and the Texans are even worse. Houston is 30th, allowing 389.5 ypg.

What I really like about this matchup and it finishing over the mark is that we have the strength of both offenses going up against the weakness of both defenses. While the Bengals rank just 21st in passing, a lot of that has to do with A.J. Green missing a big chunk of the season. He's back healthy (6 catches, 127 yards 1 TD last week) and he an Andy Dalton should be able to rack up some big plays down field against the Texans 31st ranked pass defense (278.1 ypg).

As for the Houston offense, it's no secret that the strength of their attack is their running game. The Texans come in 3rd in the league at 144.6 ypg. Cincinnati's defense ranks a miserable 28th against the run (136.2 ypg). It's also worth noting that coming out of their bye, Houston made the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Ryan Mallett at quarterback. I think Mallett is a major upgrade over Fitzpatrick and is only going to make the Texans offense that much more difficult to stop.

The OVER is also 5-1-1 in the Bengals last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points, 8-1 in Houston's last 9 off a road win and a perfect 6-0 in the Texans last 6 after they allowed less than 15 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the OVER!

3* Pac-12 Total Annihilator on Oregon St/Washington UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this Pac-12 matchup. Four of the last five games between these two teams in Washington have seen a combined score of 47 points or less. The one exception was a double-overtime game in 2010, where the two teams combined for 27 points in extra time (42 at end of regulation).

Whenever Washington plays at home, it's usually a good idea to expect the game to finish below the mark. The Huskies have seen 4 of their 5 home games finish UNDER in 2014 and 13 of the last 17 overall.

Both of these offenses are way down from last year. Washington is averaging just 30.3 ppg after putting up 37.9 ppg in 2013. The 30.3 ppg for Washington is also misleading, as they played a soft non-conference schedule that saw them score 44 on Illinois, 45 on Georgia State and 59 on Eastern Washington. Oregon State averaged 34.8 ppg last season, yet are scoring just 27.6 ppg in 2014. The key here is that the Huskies are a better defensive team at home and Oregon State's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road. Adding to this is that the UNDER is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 home games vs excellent passing teams averaging 274 or more yards/game.

There's also a strong system in play. The Under is 62-32 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points, where you have a strong offensive team averaging 390 to 440 ypg (Oregon St) against a team that's allowing 390 to 440 ypg at least 8 games into the season. That's a 66% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF SEC Total of the of the Month on Missouri/Tennessee UNDER

The books have inflated this total due to both teams coming off a high scoring game.The Volunteers and Kentucky combined for 66 points, which was their third straight game that finished over the total. The previous two being a 20-34 final against Alabama, 45-42 to South Carolina, and 50-16 over Kentucky.

Missouri on the other hand played in a game last week against Texas A&M where 61 combined points were scored. The Tigers have been more of a defensive minded team and haven't seen consecutive games go over the total since the opening two weeks when they put up big numbers in wins over South Dakota State and Toledo.

The big here is that both of these teams have been much better defensively than offensively in 2014. The Tigers are 21st in total defense (340.6 ypg) compared to just 107th in total offense (355.8 ypg). Missouri is also giving up just 20.1 ppg against teams that average 29.2 Adding to this is the Tigers allow just 3.4 yards per rush against teams giving up 4.7 and only 6 yards per pass against teams who average 7.2.  

Tennessee is 37th in total defense (363.7 ypg) compared to just 81st in total offense (381.5 ypg) and are giving up just 24.1 ppg against teams who average 31.4 per game. They allow just 4.1 yards per rush against teams gaining 4.8 and 6.9 yards per pass against quarterbacks who normally throw for 7.4.  

Adding to the offensive struggles of these two teams is that Missouri averages 4.6 yards per rush against teams that give up 4.5 and throws for 6.1 against teams that allow 6.9, while the Vols gain 3.5 yards per rush against teams allowing 3.8 and throw for 6.5 against teams who give up the same.

Anytime you can get two average offenses with excellent defenses, more times than not it's going to lead to a lower scoring game than expected. UNDER is 13-5 in Missouri's last 18 games off an upset win as an underdog and 16-5 in Tennessee head coach Butch Jones' last 21 when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. These two trends combine to form a 74% (29-10) system on this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on San Diego St/Air Force UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and San Diego State. These two teams have a history of scoring less than the mark the books set. In the last 17 meetings, 11 have finished below the total, including 5 of the last 6. I'm expecting the trend to continue as both of these teams come in playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball. 

Air Force comes in ranked 47th in total defense (378.2 ypg) and the strength of their stop unit is their run defense, which ranks 37th, allowing 140.2 ypg. That's important to note because the Aztecs offensively almost exclusively rely on the run. San Diego State ranks 34th in rushing (205.4 ypg), compared to just 107th in passing (181.8 ypg). 

San Diego State has even better overall numbers defensively. The Aztecs are 30th in total defense, giving up just 349.1 ypg. While they are giving up more rushing yards than passing yards, they a lot of that has to do with the teams they have played. They are giving up just 151 rushing yards/game against teams averaging 171 ypg and allowing only 3.8 yards/carry versus teams averaging 4.3 ypc. 

The other big key to this game finishing below the mark is that both of these teams are one-dimensional offensively with the running game. Even if it doesn't work, both are going to keep pounding the rock. That's a perfect scenario for a low scoring game, as it should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up a lot clock. 

The UNDER is 20-7 in San Diego State's last 27 games against poor passing teams who are averaging 150 or less yards/game through air, 13-4 in their last 17 off a win and 9-1 in their last 10 overall. These trends combine to form a 78% (42-12) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NHL Total Annihilator on Islanders/Penguins OVER

I'm expecting a shootout tonight in Pittsburgh between the Islanders and Penguins. Pittsburgh comes in averaging a league-best 3.65 goals/game and New York is 4th at 3.11 goals/game. The Penguins have seen an average of 6.3 goals scored in their 8 home games this season, while the Islanders have finished OVER the total in each of their last 4. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams 8 have finished over the mark and I don't see any reason why that trend won't continue tonight.

OVER is 9-1 in the Penguins last 10 home games played on Friday, 20-8 in the Islanders last 28 after scoring 4 or more in their last contest and a perfect 6-0 this season when New York is playing on 2 days rest. These trends combine to form a 80% (35-9) system. Take the OVER!

3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg.

The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg.

It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home.

UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Saints/Bengals OVER

I look for this game to fly over the total. The OVER is 3-1 in the Saints 4 home games this season and a big reason for that is their offense can light up the scoreboard in the Superdome. New Orleans is averaging 31.2 ppg at home this season, compared to just 27.9 ppg overall. I believe we are getting some value with the OVER, due to the 49ers holding the Saints to just 24 last week and the Bengals managing just 3 points at home against the Bengals.

I fully expect the Saints to do the heavy lifting when it comes to this one going OVER the total. Cincinnati is no where near as strong defensively as they have been in previous years. The Bengals rank 20th against the pass (248.9 ypg) and 31st versus the run (143.0 ypg). Those numbers get a lot worse on the road, where they are allowing 161.0 ypg on the ground and 316.0 ypg through the air. No surprise that Cincinnati is allowing 28.7 ppg away from home.

The key here is that I do expect the Bengals' offense to provide some scoring. It's now been 3 weeks since A.J. Green has returned from injury and this should be the week he gets back to being one of the elite receivers in the game. The Saints haven't exactly defended the pass well, as they are 24th in the league, allowing 259.2 ypg. Dalton simply can't play any worse than he did last Thursday against Cleveland. The Bengals has scored at least 27 points in each of their previous two games, so they are clearly capable of giving us enough points to push this well over the mark.

OVER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last 4 games off a SU loss, 11-3 in their last 14 games after finishing their last game with 150 or less passing yards and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring less than 15 points. The OVER is also 5-1 in the Saints last 6 after a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 at home and 7-1 in their last 8 after throwing for more than 250 yards in their last game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (51-14) system. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Week 12 Total Annihilator on North Texas/UTEP UNDER

This game should fly UNDER the total of 52.5. The only thing that has kept North Texas competitive is their defense and UTEP is doing everything they can to keep their defense off the field.

North Texas comes in ranked 112th in the country in total offense (334.2 ypg). The Mean Green simply don't have the offensive weapons to put up a lot of points. Defensively this team plays extremely hard under Dan McCarney and I would expect to see one of their best efforts against the Miners after last weeks 31-10 win over Florida Atlantic.

UTEP head coach Sean Kugler knows that his team can't try and beat teams in shootouts, which is why his focus offensively has been to use the running game and sustain drives. The Miners come in averaging 45 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts. That plays right into the strength of the North Texas defense, which is only allowing 3.9 yards/rush on the season. This all points to a lot of long time killing drives for UTEP and there's no guarantee they will be able to finish them off with points.

As for North Texas, if they can simply score 20 points it would be considered a success, especially on the road where they are averaging just 18.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Miners have put up better numbers defensively at home and should be highly motivated after last year's ugly 7-41 loss to the Mean Green.

The UNDER is 15-3 in North Texas' last 18 games off a win by 10 or more points and 9-2 in their last 11 with a total set at 49.5 to 56 points. The UNDER is also 5-1 in UTEP's last 6 games against a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in their last 11 conference games.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 58-26 since 1992 in games where you have a total of 49.5 to 56 points where one of the teams comes in off a home conference win who has only won between 25% to 40% of their games on the season (North Texas). That's a 69% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bills/Dolphins TNF Total of the Year on OVER

In the first meeting between these two teams, they combined for 39 points, but it could have just as easily seen 50+ points scored. The two teams combined for 6 field goals, including 5 by the Bills. That combined with the fact that both of these teams coming off a bad offensive showing last week, has this total set too low.

Buffalo scored just 13 at home against the Chiefs last week, while Miami managed just 16 points against the Lions. Detroit is No. 1 (15.8 ppg) in scoring defense and Kansas City is No. 2 (16.8 ppg). The Bills had put up 43 points the prior week against the Jets and Miami had scored at least 24 in each of their previous 5 games.

While both of these teams feature strong defenses, I look for the offenses to have the edge on the short week. Miami is averaging 27.2 ppg at home, while the Bills are putting up 25.0 ppg on the road. Buffalo's offense was hampered last week with Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins both nursing injuries. They should be a much bigger part of the offense in this one. The Bills are also a much stronger offensive team than when these first two teams played, as that first meeting came before they made the switch to Kyle Orton at quarterback.

OVER is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 after scoring 15 points or less in their last game, 6-2 in the Bills last 8 versus the AFC East and 3-1 in Miami's home games this season.

We also see a strong system in play. The OVER is 75-38 over the last 10 seasons when you have a road team that is completing 60% or better of their pass attempts after allowing 5.5 or less yards/attempt in each of their last 2 games. That's a 66% system. Take the OVER!

3* East Carolina/Cincinnati Total DOMINATOR on UNDER

It's easy to look at these two offenses and assume that this game is going to fly over the total, but I don't believe that will be the case at all. Conditions for this game are far from ideal for a shootout. Temperature at kickoff is expect to be just 30 degrees with a wind chill in the low 20's.

Cold weather typically hurts the passing game more than anything and both of these offenses are centered around their ability to pick up yards through the air. Cincinnati ranks 15th in passing (308.5 ypg), compared to just 73rd in rushing (157.4 ypg). It's even more drastic for East Carolina, who is 3rd in the country in passing (361.3 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Pirates are 8th in the country, giving up just 97 ypg against the run. Cincinnati's run defense hasn't been great overall, but they are allowing just 3.9 ypg at home and East Carolina leading rusher Breon Allen is playing at less than 100%.

The other aspect here that I believe will lead to a low-scoring game is the magnitude of this game. Both of these teams are 3-1 inside conference play and with Memphis leading the way at 4-1, a loss here would be devastating for both teams' chances of winning the AAC. Big games like this tend to see a lot more effort defensively and with the conditions I expect that to hold true.

There's a nice system in play here. UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total set at 63 or more points after the first month of the season with a team that has gone under the total by 35 or more combined points in their last 3 games (East Carolina). That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Ball State/UMass NCAAF Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's MAC showdown between Ball State and UMass.These two teams are not familiar with one another, as they haven't played since 1988. That's a big advantage for the two offenses and with two poor defenses it should lead to a lot of points.

The Minutemen come in averaging 30.8 ppg behind an offensive attack that ranks 6th in the country in passing at 331.2 ypg. Ball State is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.4% of their attempts on the road and are giving up a ridiculous 259 yards and 5.7 yards/carry on the ground away from home. Add in the Cardinals not exactly being motivated for this contest after a crushing loss to Northern Illinois and UMass' offense should have no problem sustaining drives and putting points on the scoreboard.

The other big key here is that the reason the Minutemen are 2-7 with such a potent offense, is they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. UMass is giving up 35.0 points and 458.4 yards per game on the season. They aren't any better against the run (200.6 ypg, 97th) than they are the pass (257.8 ypg, 92nd). Even though Ball State's offense ranks just 102nd with 357.8 ypg, they are going to be able to move the football against the poor UMass defense.

The Minutemen have seen their games go OVER the total in 7 of 9 contests this year and all 6 of their games following a loss. The OVER is also 7-2 in Ball State's last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games.

We also see a nice system in play. The OVER is 64-29 over the last 10 seasons in a game where you have a total of 56.5 to 63 points with a team that is averaging 400 or more yards/game (UMass) that has accumulated 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 contests. That's a 69% long-term system. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Week 10 Total Dominator on Falcons/Bucs UNDER

This may seem like a lot total based on the first matchup between these two teams, which saw the Falcons score 56 points in 3 quarters of a 56-14 win, but I'm not expecting near the fireworks that we saw back in Week 3.

Atlanta has been on a major decline since that win. In fact, they haven't won a game since. They continue to deal with injuries up front on the offensive line, which has slowed down the passing attack and there's no running game for them to fall back. The Falcons are only averaging 15.3 ppg over their last 4. Adding to all of this is that Atlanta is not nearly as effective offensively on the road as they are at home.

The other aspect to this is that you are going to see the Buccaneers come out extremely motivated to make sure that the Falcons don't embarrass them like they did in the previous matchup. They desperately want revenge and it's hard to not like their chances at home given how bad Atlanta has looked over the last month.

It's also important to note, that while their record may not indicate it, the Buccaneers are a much better team going into Week 10 than they were when they took the field back in Week 3. You have to keep in mind that they were transitioning to a new defense under first year head coach Lovie Smith. It takes time to grasp new concepts. There's definitely the talent here for this defense to be a lot better than what they have shown. It reminds me a lot of what we are seeing in Cleveland, as they seem to be turning the page under their new defensive schemes.

UNDER is 19-9 in the Falcons last 28 games played after the first month of the season, 15-4 in their last 19 in the second half against bad defensive teams who are allowing 375 or more yards/game and 34-16 in the Buccaneers last 50 revenging a loss of more than 14 points. These trends combine to form a 70% (68-29) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Alabama/LSU SEC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the total for this game has been inflated due to last year's game, which saw a combined 55 points. Each of the previous 5 meetings between these two teams resulted in games that saw 45 or fewer points, which is what I'm expecting on Saturday.

Rivalry games almost always tend to be lowering scoring than what you would expect and I believe that's going to be the case here. While Alabama has the 12th ranked offense in the country (508.9 ypg) and are 19th in scoring (36.5 ppg), they have not been the same team offensively on the road. Alabama's averages drop down to just 24.5 points and 407 yards per game away from home. LSU on the other hand is only giving up 8.5 ppg and 279 ypg at home. 

On the flip side of this, Alabama's defense should have no problem shutting down an LSU offense that is pretty one dimensional. The Tigers come in 26th in rushing (225.7 ypg), but are just 98th in passing (188.6 ypg). They average 49 rush attempts to just 21 attempts a game. That plays right into the strength of the Crimson Tide defense, which comes in 2nd in the country against the run (78.1 ypg). Alabama has also allowed just 2.7 yards/carry against opponents who average 4.3. LSU is only gaining 4.6 ypc against teams that are giving up 4.3. That's a pretty good sign that the Crimson Tide's defense will dominate this game when they are on the field.

Another huge factor to this matchup and it finishing below the total, is the fact that both of these teams come in off a bye. Each has had a full two weeks to prepare for the opposition and that should give the edge to the defenses.

UNDER is 27-12 in Alabama's last 39 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 22-8 in their last 30 off 3 straight conference wins. The UNDER is also 10-2 in LSU's last 12 home games off a bye and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a close conference win by 7 points or less.

We also have a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team is coming off a bye. Combine that with LSU's 10-2 UNDER record at home off a bye and we have a Dynamite 75% (45-15) system. Take the UNDER!

5* College Football Total of the Year on Florida/Vanderbilt UNDER

The Gators come into this game off a shocking 38-20 win over rival Georgia, has given this team a new sense of life, especially on defense. What they did to the Bulldogs offense was impressive and I look for them to carry that momentum over with another strong defensive effort against Vanderbilt.

Stopping the Commodores offense doesn't exactly figure to be too difficult for the Gators. Vanderbilt comes into this game ranked 113th in the country in scoring (19.9 ppg) and 117th in total offense (294.2 ypg). In the Commodores last three conference games, they have totaled a combined 38 points. I believe it's going to be a struggle for them to reach double-digits, which is why I love the UNDER in this matchup. 

As good as Florida's offense was against Georgia, I'm not sold that their all the sudden an offensive juggernaut. The Gators attempted a mere 6 passes the entire game, as they rushed it 60 times for 418 yards. They clearly don't trust Treon Harris throwing. That sets up perfect for the UNDER. Florida should dominate the time of possession, which will limit the possessions and have them running out the clock late.

The big key here is that I just don't see the Gators playing with the same intensity on offense as they did last week against Georgia. There's also not as big a need to score against a team like Vanderbilt. Even if Florida comes out strong offensively, I don't see them scoring enough to push this over the total. The Commodores are going to play hard at home. Vanderbilt is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry at home, compared to 4.4 on the season. It's also a lot easier to defend the run when you know there's not a threat of the pass.

UNDER is 5-2 in Vanderbilt's last 7 conference games and 10-1 in their last 11 home games after they allowed 6.5 or more yards/play in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 83% (15-3) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Week 11 Total No Brainer on Louisville/Boston College UNDER

I believe we are catching some great value on the total here based on last week's games for both of these teams. Louisville put up 31 points against Florida State and Boston College hung 33 versus Virginia Tech. Both of these teams are built around their defense and I'm expecting to see both of these offenses struggle to do much of anything on Saturday.

Boston College comes in ranked 12th in total defense (312.5 ypg), while Louisville is 6th (280.6 ypg). The big key here is that both of these defenses excel against the run. The Eagles are 4th in the country (88.9 ypg) and are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 3.8. The Cardinals are 3rd in the country against the run (78.7 ypg) and are allowing a mere 2.7 yards/carry. This is important to note, because both of these teams lean heavily on their running games. Louisville averages 39 rush attempts a game, while Boston College averages 50.

This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up clock. Adding to this is the fact that when these two teams to put together a drive, there's a good chance it will end in a field goal. 18 of Louisville's 32 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground and 24 of Boston College's 32 have come via the run.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Louisville's last 9 road games, 12-3 in their last 15 versus conference opponents and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after playing in a game where 70 or more total points were scored. The UNDER is also 30-12 in Boston College's last 42 when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 36-18 in their last 54 against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 20-7-1 in their last 28 after a win.

There's also a strong system in play. The UNDER is 148-88 over the last 10 seasons in a game involving two good teams who are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play at least 8 games into the season. That's a 63% system. Take the UNDER!

3* UCLA/Washington Pac-12 Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game today between the Huskies and Bruins. We just saw UCLA play in a game against Arizona with a combined score of 17-7. I know one performance doesn't make a season, but I look for the Bruins to carry over that momentum on defense against a Washington offense that is averaging just 22.4 ppg inside conference play.

The Huskies have the 94th ranked offense in the country and are almost exclusively looking to run the football. Washington is 49th in rushing 185.4 ypg) compared to just 104th in passing (179.4 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the UCLA defense. The Bruins are 100th against the pass (257.4 ypg), but are a respectable 58th against the run (157.4 ypg).

On the flip side of this, the Huskies might come in ranked just 76th in total defense (409.7 ypg), but they are 53rd in scoring (24.4 ppg) and 17th in total defense. The big key here for me is that Washington has a dominant defensive line that should be able to take advantage of a weak UCLA offensive line, especially playing at home in a big night game. Hundley isn't going to have to time to pass and it's going to force the Bruins to turn to the running game.

UNDER is 3-0-1 in UCLA's 4 games this season against a team with a winning record, 11-1 in Washington's last 12 home games against a team with a winning record, 8-1 in the Bruins last 9 road games, 11-3 in Washington's last 14 home games on Saturday and a perfect 8-0 in the Huskies last 8 home games after they played in a contest where 60 or more total points were scored. These trends combine to form a 91% (41-4) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Mountain West Total of the Year on Wyoming/Utah St UNDER

Anytime you see a low total like this, the publics’ first reaction is to take the over, especially after they see both teams put up big numbers offensively last time out. It’s usually a good sign that the value is with the UNDER and I definitely feel like that’s the case in this matchup.

Utah State is only averaging 27.6 ppg on the season and were fortunate to put up as many points as they did last week against Hawaii. The Aggies not only had a defensive touchdown, but three of their four offensive touchdowns came on plays of 35+ yards. Starting quarterback Kent Myers, who is 4th on the depth chart and playing because of injury, went 14 of 15 passing with 3 touchdowns. While Utah State may have found a gem in Myers, he’s not going to be that efficient in back-to-back games.

Wyoming is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.2% of their attempts for just 5.7 yards/completion at home this season. The Cowboys are also allowing just 17.7 ppg at home, compared to 30.6 ppg on the road. It’s also worth noting that if you take away the 48 points Wyoming allowed to Oregon and 56 they gave up to Michigan State, they go from giving up 30.6 ppg to just 24.4 ppg.

The Aggies defensively are a solid unit and have been equally as impressive at home as they have on the road. Utah State ranks 26th in the country in scoring defense (21.0 ppg) on the season and are only giving up 21.8 ppg away from home. Adding to this is the fact that they have held each of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. There’s every reason to believe the Aggies can shutdown Wyoming’s offense. The Cowboys are just 79th in total offense (382.2 ypg) and 102nd in scoring offense (22.9 ppg).

UNDER is 22-10 in Utah State’s last 32 games against poor defensive teams who are giving up 425 or more total yards/game and 9-2 in their last 11 against strong passing teams that are completing 58% or more of their attempts. UNDER is also 7-3 in Wyoming’s last 10 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 games after throwing for more than 280 yards in their last contest.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 54-22 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a road team that is allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game and are off a game where they outrushed their previous opponent by 125 or more yards. That's a 71% system backing this play to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* MAC Total of the Month on Ball St/Northern Illinois OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks tonight in this MAC showdown between Northern Illinois and Ball State. Both of these teams have struggled defensively in 2014. The Huskies come in 72nd (402.7 ypg), while the Cardinal are 74th (404.4 ypg).

Looking at the Ball State offensive numbers, you might be wondering how the Cardinals will provide enough to push this over the mark. Those don't watch Ball State closely, likely are unware of the quarterback change that's been made. Jack Milas has started each of the last 3 games and has throw for 749 yards and 5 touchdowns. During this stretch the Cardinals have scored no fewer than 32 points.

Milas put 326 yards and 4 scores against Western Michigan, which is a good sign that he can take advantage of a shaky Northern Illinois secondary that ranks 90th versus the pass (246.9 ypg). Just a couple weeks ago we saw the Huskies give up 41 points to a Miami (OH) offense that is currently ranked 92nd in the country in total offense (371.6 ypg).

As for the Northern Illinois offense, they should also have plenty of success moving the football. The Huskies strength is a rushing attack that ranks 13th in the nation at 269.4 ypg. The weakness of the Ball State defense is stopping the run, as they rank a mere 88th in the country, giving up an average of 188.0 ypg on the ground. Northern Illinois is averaging 5.3 yards/carry, while the Cardinals are giving up 5.0 yards/carry against teams who are only averaging 4.4 ypc.

It's also worth noting that if you look back over this series, over the last 4 meetings the fewest these two teams have combined to score is 58 points. Each of the other 3 games saw at least 75. History suggest that when these two teams face off, a lot of points should be expected.

There's a nice system in play as well. The OVER is 35-10 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win against an opponent off an upset win by 10 or more points as an underdog. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* Colts/Giants NFL MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between the Colts and Giants on Monday Night Football. This total has been inflated due to the Colts giving up 51 points to the Steelers last week. When a defense gets embarrassed like that, they almost always come out extremely motivated to make sure it doesn't happen again. That's especially the case when you have a top level team like Indianapolis. Keep in mind the Colts had just shutout the Bengals the previous week and held 4 of their previous 5 opponents to less than 20 points.

You also have to give some credit to the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is clicking on all cylinders offensively right now. They scored 43 last night on division rival Baltimore, who they had lost to in Week 2 by a final of 6-26. The Giants have a well-known quarterback in Eli Manning, but are missing two of their biggest weapons. Leading wide out Victor Cruz was lost for the year and leading rusher Rashad Jennings is still recovering from a knee injury. Without these two the offense has struggle to find a rhythm.

The big key here is that the Giants have the talent defensively to make it difficult on Andrew Luck and the Colts. While their numbers on the season aren't great, they should get a boost from playing at home in a nationally televised game. You also have to factor in that New York is coming off a bye, which has given them two full weeks to prepare for the Colts offensive attack.

UNDER is 46-28 in the Colts last 74 after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. It's also 14-6 in the Giants last 20 after a bye week, 4-1 in their last 5 at home , 11-4 in their last 15 versus a team with a winning record and 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing against a dominant ball control team (32+ minutes of possession and 21+ first downs per game).

We also see a strong system in play based on the Colts last contest. The UNDER is 28-8 since 1983 in games played in November with a total of 49.5 or more points when you have a team that has gone over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games combined. That's a 78% system in our favor. Take the UNDER!

4* Sunday Night Football Total of the Month on Ravens/Steelers UNDER

We are seeing a major overreaction here from the books after watching the Steelers put up 51 points last week against the Colts. Pittsburgh's offense is not going to put up those kind of numbers in back-to-back weeks, especially against a division rival. If you go all the way back to 1996, you won't find a total in this series this high. In fact, during this stretch the highest closing total is 45 points back in 1997.

This is one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL. When you get two teams that dislike each other and are as familiar with one another as these two are, it tends to be a low scoring game. The numbers in this series definitely back this up. Each of the last 7 games in this series have seen 43 or less points. That includes their Week 2 matchup that saw a combined 32 points, where Pittsburgh scored just 6-points.

Backing the UNDER after watching the Steelers offense put up a big number has been a wise investment. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pittsburgh's last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 8-3 in the Steelers last 11 division games and 17-7 in Baltimore's last 24 games after a game where 50 or more total points were scored.

There's also a big time system in play backing this one to finish below the mark. The UNDER is 25-6 since 1983 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a team with a winning record off an upset win by 10 or more points as a home dog. That's a 81% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Week 9 Total Dominator on Bucs/Browns UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this one. Cleveland's offense has really sputtered since starting center Alex Mack went down with a injury. In the two games he's missed, the Browns scored just 6 points on 266 yards of total offense against the Jaguars in Week 7 and 23 on 306 total yards versus a bad Raiders team this past Sunday.

Both of those games finished with fewer than 40 points and to no surprise well below the total set. I'm expecting a very similar outcome this week against the Bucs, who are dead last in the NFL in total offense at 295.1 ypg. I know the Tampa Bay defense isn't very good, but they held the Vikings to just 19 points (13 in regulation) last week. The big key here is that without Mack the Browns are not the same offensive team from the first half of the season.

Backing the UNDER when the Bucs are playing as bad as they are has been a wise investment over the years. The UNDER is 18-7 in Tampa Bay's last 25 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games with an average combined score of just 34.9 points.  The UNDER is also 29-11 in the Browns last 40 against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards and 11-2 in their last 13 versus a team with a losing record. All these trends combine to form a 74% (58-20) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Big 12 Total of the Month on UNDER

While recent meetings between these two teams have been high-scoring, I'm not expecting a shootout in Manhattan this time around. Kansas State is going to be all business as they try to remain undefeated in Big 12 play and keep their hopes alive for a spot in the 4-team playoff.

With the Wildcats focused and the advantage of playing at home, I look for them to have no problem keeping Oklahoma State's offense in check. The Cowboys have managed just 19 points in their last two games, as they are no longer playing the other bottom-feeders in the Big 12. Kansas State just pitched a shutout last week against Texas, limiting the Longhorns to just 196 yards of total offense.

The one thing Oklahoma State quarterback Daxx Garman has been able to with some success is throw the deep ball. Bill Synder will have his defense prepared for that and with no running game to fall back on it's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to sustain drives.

The big key here is that I believe the Oklahoma State defense can put up some resistance against the Kansas State offense. The Wildcats aren't an overly explosive offense. They rank right in the middle of the pack in both rushing (178.3 ypg, 53rd) and passing (246.3 ypg, 52nd). Their primary focus is running the football, which is evident by the 41 rush attempts they average per game. The one thing the Cowboys defense has done well is stop the run, as they are a respectable 38th in the country.

I just feel we are getting a very favorable number here based on how poorly the Oklahoma State defense has looked the last two weeks against TCU and West Virginia. There's a solid system backing this up, as the UNDER is 57-26 (69%) in games where you have a total set between 49.5 to 56 points with a strong offensive team that's averaging 390 to 440 yards/game (Kansas St) against a poor defensive team that is allowing 390 to 440 yards/game at least 8 games into the season. Take the UNDER!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Kentucky/Missouri UNDER

I'm not expecting to see a lot of points scored in this one. Neither one of these teams feature a potent offense and both come in with respectable defenses. Missouri is giving up just 20.5 ppg and rank 37th in total defense (350.9 ypg) and Kentucky is allowing 24.8 ppg and are 54th in total defense (378.2 ypg).

The only conference game in which Missouri has scored more than 24 points was a 42-13 win over Florida. However, the Tigers benefited from 4 non-offensive touchdowns. They finished with a mere 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense. That game against Florida is also the only SEC game for Missouri that's seen a combined score of more than 41 points.

Kentucky has put up some respectable numbers offensively, scoring 30 or more in 3 of their 5 conference games, but they only managed 3-points on the road against LSU and just 20 in regulation at Florida. This is also a difficult spot for the Wildcats coming off that huge game against No. 1 Mississippi State.

UNDER is 28-12 in Kentucky's last 40 road games in the second half of the season, 11-3 in Missouri's last 14 home games when listed as a favorite, 10-4 in the Wildcats last 14 after a loss, 8-1 in the Tigers' last 9 after a win and 4-1 in Kentucky's last 5 after allowing more than 40 points. These trends combine to form a Massive 74% (61-21) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Rivalry Game Total Annihilator on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I believe there's some great value on the UNDER in this matchup. Each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry have seen a combined score of 44 or less points. Part of the reason we have a high total here is the Gators allowed 42 points in their last game against Missouri. However, the 42 points wasn't their defenses fault. Florida's defense held the Tigers to just 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense, as Missouri scored 4 non-offensive touchdowns. 

Both of these teams come in ranked inside the top 15 in the country in total defense. Florida is 12th, allowing just 317.4 ypg and Georgia is 15th, giving up just 320.5 ypg.

I don't really have to say a whole lot about why the Bulldogs defense can shut down the Gators poor excuse of an offense, but there could be some concern here with Georgia' high-power offense piling on the points. I just don't see that being the case. Huge rivalry games like this typically are low scoring and a big added factor is that Florida comes in off a bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this contest.

Even though both Georgia and Florida are at their strongest against the run, I don't see either team abandoning their running game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock. The Gators are just 90th in the country in passing (198.5 ypg) and Georgia is even worse at 108th (171.3 ypg). This should also limit the number of explosive plays, which can destroy a solid UNDER play rather quickly.

There's some strong trends suggesting this one to finish below the mark based on each teams' previous performance. The UNDER is 12-2 in Florida's last 14 after allowing 175 or less total yards in their last game and 13-4 in Georgia's last 17 road games after they played in a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in the Gators last 6 away games after a contest where they had 3 or more turnovers and 12-4 in the Bulldogs last 16 after a contest where they forced 4 or more turnovers. All these trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (43-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Total of the Year on BC/Virginia Tech UNDER

We are seeing an extremely low total for a college football game and for good reason. For starters the conditions in Blacksburg aren't expected to be favorable for either offense. Temperature around kickoff is expected be around 40-degrees with steady rain and 10-15 mph wind.

Even with ideal conditions I wouldn't expect these two teams to eclipse 40 combined points. Boston College comes in ranked 8th in total defense (299.8 ypg), while Virginia Tech is sitting at 26th (342.3 ypg).

With the conditions not exactly favoring the passing game, both of these teams are going to look to establish the running game, which is going to eat up the clock. We have seen Virgina Tech's offense really struggle against better competition of late, as they managed just 16-points at Pittsburgh and a mere 6 at home against Miami.

The big key here is that we should get an inspired effort defensively from the Hokies at home off two straight losses. Adding to this is the fact that defensive coordinator Bud Foster and the Hokies have had some extra time to prepare for BC after playing last Thursday.

UNDER is 35-19 in Boston College's last 54 road games when listed as the underdog, 14-4 in their last 18 road games after holding their last opponent to 125 or less yards and 20-6-1 in their last 27 after a SU win. UNDER is also 20-7 in Hokies last 27 home games against a team with a winning road record, 15-4 in their last 19 as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 after rushing for less than 125 yards in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a 74% (114-41) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Pitt/Duke ACC Total No Brainer on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between these two teams. The fact that oddsmakers have set this total at just 50 points after last year's 113-point explosion is a good indicator that the books are expecting a lot more defense to be played. Keep in mind the UNDER is 5-1 in Duke's last 6 games and 4-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5.

I definitely agree. Duke ranks 2nd in the ACC 4th in the country allowing just 15.1 ppg. Only twice all season have the allowed more than 20 points and those came against two explosive offenses in Miami (FL) and Georgia Tech. Pittsburgh is only allowing 23.3 ppg and prior to giving up 56 last week to Georgia Tech were only giving up 15.0 ppg. The Panthers also come in ranked 16th in total defense, allowing just 321.0 ypg.

Not only do we have two strong defenses facing off, but we have two offenses that are looking to run the football and control the time of possession. The Blue Devils come in ranked 32nd in rushing (218.0 ypg) and are averaging 38 rush attempts a game. Pittsburgh is 20th in rushing (233.9 ypg) with an average of 44 attempts per game. The clock is going to be constantly running and I'm expecting a lot of length drives that result in no points or field goals.

UNDER is 32-17 in Duke's last 49 when listed as a road underdog, 6-0 in their last 6 conference games, and 7-1 in their last 8 after a SU win. The UNDER is also 7-1 in Pitts last 8 following a SU loss and perfect 6-0 off an upset loss as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 57-26 in games with a total of 49.5 to 56  points at least 8 games into the season where you have a strong offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) against a poor defensive team (390-440 ypg). That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Giants/Royals World Series Game 6 Heavy Hitter on OVER

I think the clear value in Game 6 is on the total, as we have the exact same pitching matchup from Game 2, which saw a combined 9 runs. San Francisco's Jake Peavy gave up 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings of work and Kansas City's Yordano Ventura was fortunate to only 2 runs, as he allowed 8 hits in 5 1/3 innings and the home run allowed was a solo shot. With a better idea of what to expect from Ventura, I look for the Giants to put up the 3-4 runs needed to push this over the total of 7. The Royals were held to a combine 1 run and8 hits in their two games against Madison Bumgarner, but have scored 14 runs on 28 hits in the 3 games against Peavy, Hudson and Vogelsong.

The OVER has gone 13-3 in the Giants last 16 road games when listed as an underdog of +125 to +150 and is 3-1-1 in Peavy's last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The OVER is also 5-1 in the Royals last 6 when listed as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 5-1 in Ventura's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the opponent scores 5+ in their previous game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system. Take the OVER!

4* American Athletic Total of the Month on UCF/Temple UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here, as we have two bad offensive teams against two strong defenses. Temple comes in with the 94th ranked offense (370.7 ypg), yet are a respectable 31st in total defense (345.3 ypg). There's an even bigger difference for UCF, which is 121st in total offense (291.0 ypg) and 20th in total defense (326.2 ypg).

Just looking at the points allowed for both of these teams, it wouldn't come as a surprise if we didn't see either team reach 20 points in this one. Temple is allowing just 16.0 ppg on the road and UCF is only giving up 14.7 ppg at home. Even if both teams give up a touchdown more than what their average, that comes out to just 45 points, which still has us under a field of the current total.

You might think this is a good spot for the Knight's offense against a Temple defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.3% of their passes, but that puts us in a strong situation for this one to go below the mark. The UNDER is 21-9 in UCF's last 30 home games against teams who are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts.

There's also a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 69-128 in games where you have a team that committed 3 or more turnovers in their last game against an opponent who had a turnover margin of -2 or worse in each of their last two. The key here is that this system comes into play for both teams, making it that much stronger. It's a 65% system both ways. Take the UNDER!

3* Big 12 NCAAF Total Dominator on Oklahoma St/W Virginia OVER

I believe we are catching a good number here due to both of these finishing below the total in each of their last 3 games. Last time these two teams met in Stillwater, they combined for 89 points in a 55-34 win for the Cowboys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a very similar outcome in 2014.

Oklahoma State is no where near as bad offensively as what we saw last week against TCU. Prior to that game the Cowboys had scored at least 27 points in each of their previous 6 games and 4 of those saw them score 35+. What you can't overlook here is that West Virginia is not as strong defensively on the road as they are at home. The Mountaineers are giving up just 27.1 points and 382 yards on the season, yet are giving up an average of 34.7 points and 517 yards on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma State is a much stronger team offensively at home than on the road. They are scoring 41.2 points on 471 yards at home, compared to just 33.1 points and 397 yards on the season.

As for West Virginia their offense has traveled well and Oklahoma State's offense hasn't been a whole lot better at home compared to on the road. No reason not to expect the Mountaineers to come close to their season average of 37.3.

OVER is 2-1 in the Mountaineers 3 road games this season and 2-1 in the Cowboys 3 home games this season. We also see that the OVER is 12-3 in Oklahoma State's last 15 after a 2 game road trip, 37-17 in their last 54 conference home games and 17-5 in their last 22 with a line of +3 to -3.  We also see that the OVER is 24-6 in the Cowboys last 30 home games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 425 or more total yards/game.

Strong system in play as well. OVER is 41-15 in games where you have a team who allowed 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game (Cowboys) against an opponent who has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 games. That's a 73% system on this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on SMU/Memphis UNDER

This may seem like a low total for a game that involves SMU and their awful defense, but I believe the books have set it low for good reason. SMU has scored 6 or fewer points in all put one game this season, including just 6-points last week against a bad Cincinnati defense. Memphis is strong defensively and have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, giving little reason to expect SMU's offense will be able to do much of anything.

If Memphis wanted to, they could potentially eclipse this total on their own, but there's no reason for the Tigers to run up the score. Look for Memphis to be content running the ball and moving the chains on the ground, which plays right into their strength, as they come in averaging 48 rush attempts per game. As you know, lots of running typically leads to a quick game that finishes under the total.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Memphis jumped out to a huge lead early and got some of their backup players some playing time. Keep in mind they have a quick turnaround with a home game against Tulsa on Friday.

It's also worth noting that Memphis hasn't been as effective offensively on the road. The Tigers come in averaging 33.7 points and 429 yards per game on the season, yet are scoring just 26.3 points on 394 yards away from home. Coupled with a strong defense it's a big reason why we have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in Memphis' last 9 road games.

There's also a strong system in play favoring this game to go below the mark. The UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points with a road team playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Late Night Pac-12 Over/Under Crusher on Oregon/Wash OVER

Even with Washington's strong defense, I'm expecting a shootout on Saturday between the Ducks and Huskies. Each of the last two meetings in this series have seen a combined score of at least 69 points. Washington had a strong defense in 2012 and it resulted in a total of just 62.5 points at Oregon. The Ducks put up 52 and the total flew over with 73 combined points.

What a lot of people overlooked in Oregon's loss to Arizona, which saw them score just 24 points, was they were without their top 3 tackles. They got back Jake Fisher last week and it made a huge difference, as they returned to form with 42 points on the road against UCLA. Washington has a great pass rush, but they also give up a lot of big plays through the air. The Huskies rank just 97th in the country against the pass, allowing 274.7 ypg. Their attacking mentality could also open up some big plays for Mariota scrambling out of the pocket.

The real key here is that Oregon's defense is not as good as what we have seen in years past. The Ducks come in ranked 73rd against the run (174.2 ypg) and 108th versus the pass (295.5 ypg). While Washington doesn't have a great offense, they should be able to score in the mid to upper 20s to push this well over the mark of 64.5.

There's a strong system in play favoring this game to finish above the total. The OVER is 33-9 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win (Oregon) against an opponent off a win by 10+ points as an underdog. That's a 79% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Missouri/Florida UNDER

Both of these teams have better defenses than they do offenses. Missouri comes in ranked 57th in total defense (380.7 ypg) and just 106th in total offense (357.9 ypg). Florida is 40th in total defense (357.0 ypg) and 90th in total offense (385.0 ypg).

Missouri put up some big offensive numbers early in the year against weak competition, but have not been able to get anything going of late. They managed just 27 points at home against a Indiana defense that is not good at all, had just 7 points before a couple of late touchdowns against an average South Carolina defense and last week managed just 147 total yards in their loss to Georgia.

Florida hasn’t been much better. While the Gators scored 21 points at Alabama, they had a fumble returned for a touchdown and their two other scores also came on Crimson Tide turnovers. Florida then managed just 10 points at Tennessee and their 27 against LSU isn’t impressive based on how bad the Tigers have looked defensively inside conference play.

Offensively the Gators have little to no threat of a passing attack, as Jeff Driskel continues to be one of the biggest bust in Florida history (#1 ranked QB out of high school). Driskel has completed just 55% of his attempts with just 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Missouri’s defense is more than capable of slowing down the Gators offensive attack.

The Tigers are giving up 22.8 ppg against opponents who are averaging 31.0 ppg. Florida is allowing just 22.2 ppg against teams who are averaging 29.5 ppg. What’s really impressive is how good these two teams have been against the run. Missouri is giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams average 5.1 and the Gators are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.2.

I don’t expect to see either offense doing much of anything and when they do I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams failed to reach 20 points.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers' last 4, 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 11-5 in the Gators last 16 games following a contest in which they failed to cover the spread. These trends combine to form a 77% (23-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Year on BC/Clemson UNDER

This might seem like an extremely low total, but I think there's a lot of value in the UNDER with Clemson not having the services of talented freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville. While the Tigers went on to score 23 points, the offense managed just 9 points. Their two touchdowns came on a 72-yard punt return and fumble recovery in the endzone. The real telling stat for Clemson was the 12 first downs and mere 229 yards of total offense they managed. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt has some experience, but is no where close to Watson in terms of talent.

Hard to imagine the Tigers offense getting on track against a strong Boston College defensive unit. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg). I'm also not expecting to see a whole lot out of Boston College's offense, as Clemson comes in ranked 35th in scoring defense (21.2 ppg) and 7th in total defense (286.0 ypg). Even had Watson played I don't think this would have been a high-scoring affair.

Another key here is that both of these teams are excellent against the run and do a great job of not giving up the big play. Boston College is allowing just 3.0 yards/rush and 4.4 yards/play, while Clemson is giving up just 3.4 yards/rush and 5.0 yards/play. Not only are both offenses going to struggle to stay to sustain drives, they will likely have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

It's also worth mentioning that last year these two teams combined for just 38 points and both have lost big time offensive players. The Tigers parted ways with their all-time leading passer (Tajh Boyd) and receiver (Sammy Watkins), while BC lost their all-time leading rusher (Andre Williams).

UNDER is 36-18 in Clemson's last 54 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game and 13-3 in Boston College's last 16 home games against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/pass.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 33-11 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more yards (BC) against an opponent that managed just 3.25 or less yards/play in their last game. That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Virginia/Duke ACC Total Dominator on UNDER

Both of these teams have had a tendency to finish UNDER the total in 2014. Virginia has gone under the mark in 3 of their 5 games and Duke has finished below the total in 4 of 5. The only Blue Devil game that finished over was a 47-13 win over Tulane (total 52.5), where Duke had 2 interceptions returned for a touchdown in the 4th quarter.

One of the things that I really like here is that we have two teams who are both looking to establish the run. Virginia comes in averaging 42 rush attempts/game and Duke is right behind at 39 attempts/game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions with big chunks of time ran off the clock.

Virginia comes in with the 6th ranked run defense in the country, giving up just 91.5 ypg on a mere 2.7 yards/carry. While Duke has rushed for at least 180 yards in 5 of their 6 games, a lot of that has to do with an easy schedule. They had just 85 yards against Miami a couple weeks back and ended up scoring just 10 points in the game (32 combined).

Duke doesn't have the best run defense, but I would expect them play inspired defensively at home, which has definitely been the case so far this season. The Blue Devils are only giving up 9.7 ppg on 339 ypg at home this season.

Leaning towards the UNDER in Virginia games has been a wise move over the years. The UNDER is 73-45 (62%) over the Cavaliers last 118 conference games. It's also 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win and 13-4 in their last 17 road games against teams who are allowing 17 or less points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Duke's last 7 after a win, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. These trends combine to form a solid 68% (121-58) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on UCF/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in Saturday's matchup between Tulane and UCF. Both of these teams have struggled to get much of anything going offensively in 2014. The Knights are 95th in scoring (24.6 ppg) and 118th in total offense (302.6 ypg), while the Green Wave are 114th in scoring (19.7 ppg) and 101st in total offense (366.6 ypg).

It's also worth noting that both defenses match up well with the offensive strength of the other team. UCF's can't run the football (2.6 yards/carry), forcing them to throw a lot more than they would like. Tulane is 35th in the country against the pass, giving up just 213.2 ypg. As for the Green Wave, they have little to no threat of a passing attack, which plays right into the hands of a UCF defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards/carry (only 2.9 ypc at home).

Last week Tulane managed to score just 3-points at home against Connecticut, which is a great sign that the Green Wave will have a difficult time putting up points on the road against a motivated UCF team that is coming off a big win against BYU. It's also worth noting that the Knights have had a few extra days to prepare, as their game against the Cougars was played last Thursday.

UNDER is 5-1 in Tulane's last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after scoring 20 points or less last time out. The UNDER is also 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games and 6-1 in their last 7 after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Giants/Cardinals Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

Even though the Cardinals will be sending out their ace Adam Wainwright against the Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, I believe the value here is on the OVER with such a small total. Wainwright has clearly not been himself in the postseason. He allowed 6 runs on 11 hits in just 4 1/3 innings at LA in the NLDS and 3 runs on 6 hits in 4 2/3 innings of Game 1 in this series. I think Wainwright's elbow is hurting more than he's leading on.

As for Bumgarner, for whatever reason he's not been the same caliber a pitcher at home as he has on the road. Bumgarner is a 11-4 with a sensational 2.22 ERA over 18 road starts, but just 7-6 with a 4.03 ERA over 15 home starts. The Cardinals aren't going to go down without a fight and I look for them to score 3-4 runs here and push this total over the mark early.

OVER is 10-2 in the Cardinals last 12 NLCS road games and 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts as a road underdog. It's also 8-0 in the Giants last 8 NLCS home games, 15-2 in their last 17 playoffs games when listed as a favorite and 10-4 in Bumgarner's last 14 home starts. These trends combine to form a dynamite 85% (47-8) system. Take the OVER!

5* Weekday NCAAF Total of the Year on Pitt/Va Tech UNDER

Forget the side, the value here is on this game to go UNDER the total. Both Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. The Hokies come in ranked 21st in total defense (325.1 ypg) and 23rd in scoring (19.8 ppg), while the Panthers are 4th in total defense (277.5 ypg) and 17th in scoring (19.0 ppg).

The big key here is that both of these teams primary focus offensively is to establish the run. Virginia Tech is averaging 42 rush attempts a game and Pittsburgh is handing it off 46 times a game. That's a perfect recipe to kill the clock and keep points off the scoreboard when you have to strong defenses like this.

Another aspect that should help both defenses is the fact that each team was off last week, giving them 11 days to prepare for this matchup. Last year these two teams managed to combine for just 27 points and that was with 9 points scored in the final 3:30 of the 4th quarter. Together the two teams combined for just 525 total yards and 28 first downs.

UNDER is 34-18 in Pittsburgh's last 52 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game. Adding to the Hokies solid rush numbers is the fact that they are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.9.

UNDER is also 6-1 in Virginia Tech's last 7 games following a bye, 16-5 in their last 21 games on Thursday, 24-9-1 in their last 34 off a SU win, 4-1 in Pitts last 5 off a bye and 6-1 in Panthers last 7 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (56-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Tuesday Night NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on Lafayette/Texas St OVER

We have seen this total jump from the opening number of 60 to 63.5. I believe it's for good reason and there's still plenty of value on the OVER. This matchup features two defenses that have really been struggling. Texas State is giving up 423.2 ypg, while Lafayette is allowing 460 ypg. Neither team can stop the run. The Bobcats are surrendering 214.8 ypg and the Ragin' Cajuns are giving up 187.8 ypg. Both teams should be able to move the chains with ease and most importantly finish off drives with touchdowns.

Texas State comes in ranked 21st in total offense, averaging 497.6 ypg and have had equally strong success running (259.6 ypg) as they have passing (238.0 ypg). There could be some concern over Lafayette's offensive numbers, as they are just 84th in the country in total offense (390.2 ypg). However, that's due to playing two strong defenses on the road in Ole Miss and Boise State. The Ragin' Cajuns just put up 461 yards on Georgia State last time out and last year scored 48 points on 572 yards of offense against these Bobcats. It's also worth noting that Texas State has allowed at least 30 points in each of their games against FBS opponents.

Anytime there's a high total with the Ragin' Cajuns, it's been a wise move to focus in on the OVER. In Lafayette's last 15 games with a total of 63 or more points, the OVER has gone 12-3. The OVER is also 8-3 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 11 games off a bye and 19-9 in their last 28 games played in October (typically conference matchups). These trends combine to form a strong 72% (39-15) system. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Late Night Over/Under Total Crusher on Nevada/Colorado St OVER

I believe the books have set the total too low in Saturday's showdown between Nevada and Colorado State. Both of these offenses come in with a lot of confidence. The Wolf Pack put up 46 points on 462 yards of total offense against Boise State and that was with Nevada committing 4 turnovers. Colorado State hung 42 points and 532 yards of total offense against Tulsa and that was with the Rams scoring just 14 points in the 2nd half.

There's plenty of reason to believe that both offenses will continue to light up the scoreboard, as both of these teams have not been great defensively. The Rams are giving 4.6 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts for a 7.7 average per completion. Nevada is giving up 5.0 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their attempts for a 7.5 average completion.

The fact that both these teams are giving up big chunks of yards, should have both offenses sustaining drives and most importantly finishing them off with touchdowns. Last year the two combined for just 55 points, but that was with a sluggish first half that saw just 13 combined points scored. I expect a lot more offense early, which should have this one flying over the total.

The OVER is 16-6 in Colorado State's last 22 games after going under the total in each of their previous 2 contests and 15-5 in their last 20 games when listed as a road favorite. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Rams last 6 road games against teams who are allowing 425 or more yards of total offense. These trends combine to form a 77% (37-11) system. Take the OVER!

5* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on Air Force/Utah State UNDER

I'm not expecting both of these to come out sluggish after knocking off a big rival last week. Air Force defeated Navy 30-21, while Utah State stunned previously unbeaten BYU 35-20. I also think the matchup favors a low scoring game.

Air Force is only allowing 21.2 ppg on the season and are carrying over a lot of momentum on the defensive side of the ball after holding Boise State to just 14 points and Navy to 21. Both of those teams provide more of an offensive punch than Utah State, which has lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton to another season ending knee injury. Without Keeton the Aggies offense has become more dependable on the run. They come in averaging 37 rush attempts a game. Air Force has had their struggles against the pass, but are respectable 27th against the run (116.0 ypg).

It's no secret that the Falcons are a run-first team, as that's been the case for quite some time. Air Force comes in ranked 11th in the country in rushing (298.0 ypg) compared to 115th in passing (136.6 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Utah State defense, which is 8th in the country against the run (93.4 ypg) and giving up just 2.6 yards/carry.

With both offenses coming in looking to establish the run and both defenses thriving at stopping the ground game, both teams are going to have to work for every first down. This should keep the clock running and limit the possessions, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 35-18 in Air Force's last 53 games played in October, 14-5 in Utah State's last 19 after a game where they covered the spread and 26-12 in the Aggies last 38 home games after the first month of the season. These trends combine to form a 70% (83-36) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Giants/Cardinals NLCS Main Event on OVER 6.5

I'm expecting these two teams to finish above the 6.5 mark tonight. While San Francisco will be sending out Madison Bumgarner and the Cardinals giving the ball to Adam Wainwright, these are two strong offenses that know how to score runs.

St Louis really swung the bat well against the Dodgers left-handed starters and Bumgarner comes in with a 4.78 ERA over 8 career starts against the Cardinals. As for Wainwright, I have big concerns that's he not at 100%. He allowed 6 runs on 11 hits in his only start against LA in the Divisional round and would later admit that he had aggravated an elbow injury. He's a gamer and will try and go no matter what.

OVER is 13-5 in the Cardinals last 18 home games against an opposing starter with a WHIP of 1.150 or better, 21-13 in the Cardinals last 35 home games with a total of 7 or less, 14-3-1 in Bubmgarner's last 18 starts on Saturday and 11-5 in his last 16 with a total of 6.5 or less. These trends combine to form a 69% (59-26) system. Take the OVER!

3* TCU/Baylor NCAAF Total No Brainer on OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 79 points and 780 yards of total offense and that was with an off day from Baylor starting quarterback Bryce Petty and a TCU offense that saw Trevone Boykin not playing a significant role. It was the third straight meeting where these two teams combined for at least 70 points. I think we are going to see just as much offense, if not more, in Saturday's showdown between the only two undefeated teams in the Big 12.

It just so happens that Petty comes into this game off a poor showing against Texas, where he completed just 7 of 22 attempts for 111 yards. Even with their star quarterback off his game, Baylor was able to score 28 points, which is a credit to just how potent this offense can be. I look for Petty to bounce back in a big way at home against a TCU defense that just allowed 309 passing yards to Oklahoma's Trevor Knight, who is no where near as gifted as Petty and doesn't have the same caliber of weapons at his disposal.

There's been a lot made of Baylor's defense, which comes in ranked 5th in the country in scoring (12.4 ppg) and 4th in yards allowed (267.2 ypg). As impressive as those numbers are, it's a direct result of an unbelievable easy schedule to start the year. TCU comes in averaging 42.7 ppg on 516 yards of total offense and based on what the Horned Frogs were able to do against this Baylor defense last year without Boykin, I think the Bears are going to have a difficult time slowing this offense down.

Boykin comes into this contest completing 61.5% of his attempts with 1,176 yards and 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. He's also TCU's leading rusher with 260 yards and has scored 3 rushing touchdowns. In last week's game against a good Oklahoma defense, Boykin threw for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for another 77 yards on 22 attempts.

There's plenty of trends backing this one to finish over the total. The OVER is 16-6 in Baylor's last 22 games against a top level team that's won more than 75% of their games, 13-4 in their last 17 against good run defenses that are allowing 120 or less yards/game, 20-8 in their last 28 against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 14 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set between 63.5 to 70 points. These trends combine to form a 77% (63-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

Both UCLA and Oregon underperformed last week in upset losses at home. The Ducks scored just 24 points in a 24-31 loss to Arizona, while the Bruins put up only 28 points in a 28-30 defeat to Utah. Even with those poor performances, Oregon still ranks 9th in scoring at 43.6 ppg and UCLA is 34th at 36.0 ppg. I believe their poor showings has created some nice value on the OVER.

Part of the problem for both of these teams has been the play of their offensive line. While both are still hurting up front, neither of these defenses figure to take advantage. This is not the same caliber of Oregon defense that we have seen in previous years. The Ducks are ranked 101st in the country in total defense, giving up 453.0 ypg. UCLA isn't a whole lot better. The Bruins are 86th in total defense, allowing 429.0 ypg.

Both UCLA and Oregon are built around the passing game with big time talent at the quarterback position. Oregon is 16th in the country in passing at 324.4 ypg and UCLA is 27th at 297.6 ypg. The big key here is that both of these teams have a horrible time stopping the pass. The Ducks are 115th (309.6 ypg) and the Bruins are 100th (271.0 ypg).

Prior to last year's matchup which saw just 56 total points scored (only 14 by UCLA), the previous two matchups in this series saw a combined score of at least 73 points.

OVER is 19-7-1 in Oregon's last 27 games following a SU loss and 36-15 in their last 51 after allowing more than 450 yards of total offense. It's also 5-1 in Bruins last 6 home games and 32-16 in their last 48 against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/completion. These trends combine to form a 70% (87-38) system. Take the OVER!

3* Duke/Georgia Tech Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting more than enough offense here to push this game over the total. Duke comes in averaging 36.8 ppg on 446 yards of total offense and Georgia Tech is averaging 34.6 ppg on 430 yards of total offense. Duke had one of their worst offensive games of the season in last year's meeting and the two teams still combined for 52 points.

One of the reasons that I think the books have set this total lower than what it should be is because the Blue Devils come in ranked 8th in the country allowing just 13.6 ppg. That may seem impressive, but it's not. Duke has played one of the easiest schedules in the country to this point. They were extremely fortunate to hold Miami to just 22 points, as the Hurricanes had 426 yards of total offense. What killed Miami is they were just 2 of 13 on 3rd down.

I'm also expecting the Blue Devils' offense to put up some big numbers. Georgia Tech's defense is also not as good as advertised due to a soft schedule. The Yellow Jackets only returned 4 starters on defense and we have already seen them give up 528 yards to Georgia Southern at home and 424 yards to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech is giving up 5.5 yards/rush and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.4% of their attempts for 8.0 yards/completion. Duke has had two full weeks to put together a gameplan for Georgia Tech's defense, which should have their offense clicking on all cylinders.

The OVER is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 games and 6-0 Georgia Tech's last 6 home games against teams who are averaging 4.75 or more yards/rush.

We also see a strong system backing this one to finish above the total. The OVER is 45-17 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points where you have the home team that has started out 4-0 or better. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* BYU/UCF NCAAF Total No Brainer on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. BYU lost star quarterback and Heisman contender Taysom Hill for the season in last week's loss to Utah State. Hill was the one player the Cougars offense couldn't afford to lose. Hill had thrown for 975 yards and 7 touchdowns and was also the leading rusher with 460 yards and 8 touchdowns. His dual threat ability made BYU's offense extremely hard to defend.

UCF had a decent shot at slowing down the Cougars' offense even with Hill in the lineup. The Knights come in ranked 30th in total defense (334.3 ypg) and 14th against the run (106.0 ypg). What I really like is that UCF is giving up just 3.1 yards/carry. BYU backup Christian Stewart was just 10 of 29 for for 172 yards with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions after replacing Hill against Utah State. Hill had gone 8 of 11 for 99 yards and 1 touchdown, so you can see the drop off in talent.

The pressure now falls on the BYU defense to keep them in games and this is an opponent that I believe they can dominate. UCF comes into this one with the 119th ranked offense in the country. They are having an equally difficult time running (102.5 ypg, 105th) as they are passing (178.5 ypg, 103rd). The Cougars have given up some big yardage in the passing game, but are 10th in the country against the run, allowing just 98.2 ypg. The Knights' run 36 times to just 22 pass attempts, so their focus is clearly on establishing the ground game.

With both defenses matching up well with the opposition, we should see a lot of drives that end in punts and field goal attempts, which should have this game flying under the total.

There's a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 50-18 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a good rushing team that's averaging 190 to 230 ypg (BYU) against a team with a good run defense that's allowing 100 to 140 ypg in non-conference matchups. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Nebraska/Michigan State Total No Brainer on UNDER

Last year these two teams combined for 69 points in a 41-28 Michigan State victory at Nebraska. That might have some looking to take the OVER at 58 this time around, but I think this one is going to be a lot more competitive and more of an offensive struggle for both teams.

Michigan State once again has a dominant defense and they matchup perfectly for what the Cornhuskers like to do offensively. Nebraska is 3rd in the country in rushing at 354.8 ypg, but the key is they run in 51 times compared to just 25 pass attempts. Michigan State is 4th against the run, allowing just 78.3 ypg and have went up against Oregon's potent ground game. They held the Ducks to just 173 yards on 40 attempts and would have put up better numbers had it not been 100 degrees, which really wore the Spartans defense down in the 2nd half.

The Spartans have put up some big numbers offensively, but they have come against awful competition. This is one of the better Nebraska defenses that we have seen and I expect them to keep Michigan State in check and force them into some long drives.

UNDER is 9-2 in Michigan State's last 11 games after outgaining their previous two opponents by 125 or more total yards and 13-5 in Nebraska's last 18 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. These trends combine to form a 75% (22-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Month on UNDER

Oddsmakers have set a low total here for a reason and I'm expecting this one to be a defensive battle the whole way. Neither one of these teams possess explosive offenses and both are sound defensively. Pittsburgh comes in 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 263.8 ypg, while Virginia is 32nd in total defense allowing just 334.8 ypg. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Cavaliers' numbers are they have faced 3 big time opponents in UCLA, Louisville and BYU.

One of the key matchups in this game is the Cavaliers run defense against James Connor and Pittsburgh's high-powered rushing attack. Virginia is 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 86.6 ypg. They are also allowing just 2.6 yards/carry. The Panthers come in averaging 48 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts, so they are clearly focused on running the football. Even if Pittsburgh has minor success on the ground, which I think they will, that's going to result in long drives that eat up the clock. Exactly what we are looking for when trying to cash on the UNDER.

Virginia's offense isn't anything special and I look for them to have a difficult time of their own staying on the field. Pittsburgh is going to come out extremely motivated here after dropping two straight after their 3-0 start. Their lack of energy and focus was a big reason why they got upset at home last week by Akron. Head coach Paul Chryst isn't going to let that poor effort fly in back-to-back games.

Another thing you have to like about this finishing below the total is last year these two teams combined for just 17 points and a big reason for that was neither side could get anything going on the ground. Virginia held Connor and the Pitt offense to just 8 yards on 35 attempts. The Panthers returned the favor by holding Kevin Parks and the Cavaliers ground game to just 65 yards on 33 attempts.

UNDER is 11-2 in Virginia's last 13 home games against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession, 40-16 in the Cavaliers last 56 games against teams who are allowing 310 or less total yards and 33-18 in Pitts last 51 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game.

There's also a key system backing this one. The UNDER is 51-21 over the last 10 years in October games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a team off a home blowout win by 28 or more points (Virginia). That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Syracuse/Louisville Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both of these teams have been cashing in on the UNDER this season. Louisville has finished below the total in all 4 of their games, while Syracuse has seen their games finish below the mark in 3 straight. I'm expecting a big time defensive battle in this one.

The Cardinals come in ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, giving up just 225.2 ypg. A big reason for that is their dominant run defense, which leads the nation allowing just 58.2 ypg. Syracuse's offense relies on their ability to run the football, which is going to make it very difficult for the Orange to generate a lot of drives that result in points and if they do they will likely have to settle for field goals.

Syracuse doesn't have as strong of numbers defensively as the Cardinals, but they are a respectable 51st, giving up just 374.5 ypg. A lot of that has to do with playing two high-powered offenses in Maryland and Notre Dame. Even with those two opponents, the Orange are only giving up 3.0 yards/carry against the run.

The other key here is that Louisville's offense is not all that potent. The come in ranked 77th in the country and have not been nearly as effective on the road as they have at home. On top of that, the Carrier Dome is a difficult place to play and the Orange's homefield edge should be at full strength in a weekday matchup on ESPN.

UNDER is 34-19 in Syracuse's last 53 games when playing against an opponent that's won more than 75% of their game. It's also 13-3 in Louisville's last 16 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in each of their last two games.

There's a solid system backing the UNDER in this one as well. The UNDER is 37-11 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is outgaining opponents by 125 or more yards/game after a contest where they had a 225+ yard advantage. That's a 77% system. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator on Cardinals/Dodgers OVER

While we have two of the best pitchers in baseball squaring off in this one, there's simply too much value on the OVER 5.5. Both of these teams feature strong offenses who can bunch runs together. It takes just one big inning by either side and we should see at least 6 runs.

As good as Kershaw has been, he's got just  3.69 ERA and 1.305 WHIP over 17 career starts against the Cardinals. Wainwright on the other hand will be going up against a Dodgers' offense that closed out the season on fire, scoring 6.6 runs and hitting .279 as a team over their last 7 games. You have to go all the way back to Sept. 10 to find a game where LA and their opponent combined for 6 or less runs.

OVER is 15-6 in the Dodgers last 21 home games against an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better, 20-6-2 in their last 28 against a right-handed starter and 10-4 in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite. It's also 33-18 in the Cardinals last 51 in the 2nd half when playing against a good team (54% to 62%), 6-1-1 in Wainwright's last 8 starts as a road underdog and 11-5-1 in the Cardinals last 17 playoff games when listed as the underdog. These trends combine to form a 70% (95-40) system. Take the OVER!

3* Arizona/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

I look for the Oregon and Arizona to have no problem eclipsing this massive total of 76 points. This is a statement game for Oregon after their poor showing last time out against Washington State, plus they will be out for revenge against a Arizona team that whooped up on them 42-16 last year. I look for the Ducks to come out focused and looking to put up a big number and a nationally televised game.

Last year Arizona took advantage of an unmotivated Oregon team and was able to control the time of possession and protect their lead with the running game. That's not going to be the case this time. Oregon's offense is nearly unstoppable at home. Even Michigan State, who has one of the best defenses in the country gave up 46 points to the Ducks. With the Wildcats playing catchup, they are going to be forced to throw the ball, which will extend the game and give both teams more possessions.

The key here is that Oregon's secondary has not looked great early on. The Ducks come ranked 114th against the pass (315.3 ypg) and will be going up against Arizona's 8th ranked passing attack (365.8 ypg). The Wildcats are going to score and should put up enough points early to keep Oregon on the attack and most importantly keep those starters in for the 2nd half.

OVER is 18-6 in Oregon's last 24 home games when listed as a favorite of 21.5 or more points. There's also a key system backing this one to surpass the total. The OVER is 39-12 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards/play (Arizona) against an opponent that's gained 450 or more total yards in 4 straight games. That's a 77% system. Take the OVER!

3* Florida Atlantic/FIU NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

Forget the spread, the real value in this matchup is on the total. This game features two awful offenses and should fly UNDER the mark of 48.5. Florida Atlantic is 101st in passing (185.4 ypg) and 96th in rushing (128.2 ypg). FIU is even worse. The Golden Panthers are 100th in passing (185.8 ypg) and 116th in rushing (85.8 ypg).

Defensively the Owls do not have impressive numbers, as they come in ranked 102nd against the pass (283.6 ypg) and 98th against the run (219.0 ypg). However, that is largely due to playing Nebraska and Alabama on the road in non-conference play. Both the Cornhuskers put up 784 yards and the Crimson Tide finished with 620 yards. If you focus on just their three games against Tulsa, Wyoming and UTSA, the Owls are only giving up 135.6 ypg on the ground and just 234.0 ypg through the air.

It's also worth noting that you should not be fooled by FIU's 34 points last week against UAB. The Golden Panthers managed just 297 yards of total offense with a mere 9 first downs. They benefited from 6 turnovers, including two intereceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Also, 160 of their 297 yards came on two long pass plays (75 & 85 yards).

The key here is that for as bad as FIU is offensively, their defense has played well. If you take away the 321 yards rushing they gave up to Pitt, they are have held their other 4 opponents to just 94.5 ypg.

The UNDER is 31-15 in FIU's last 51 games against a team with a losing record, 8-1 in their last 9 against conference opponents and 12-3 in their last 15 home games after having lost 2 of their last 3. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Florida Atlantic's last 6 road games after going over the total last time out. These trends combine to form a 75% (57-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Temple/Connecticut UNDER

The is an extremely low total for good reason. We have two of the worst offenses in the country going at it in a conference matchup and both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball. Points are going to be extremely hard to come by for both of these teams.

Connecticut comes in ranked 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 253.3 ypg, but have been able to keep games respectable behind a stingy defense that ranks 37th, giving up just 344.1 ypg. There defense is arguably even better than the numbers would suggest. Outside of the 513 yards they gave up to a great BYU offense, the Huskies have held each of their last 3 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. 

Temple has been a little better offensively, as they come in ranked 93rd with an average of 366.0 ypg, but haven't faced a quality defense like what Connecticut brings to the table. Defensively the Owls are 15th in the country in total defense, allowing just 296.0 ypg. They too are even better than their numbers, as they gave up 487 yards rushing to Navy.

I would give the Owls the edge overall, but with this being a home game for Connecticut we should see an evenly matched contest. Even if Temple's offense is able to move the ball and put up some points, I don't see Connecticut doing enough here to exceed this total.

There's a huge system backing this game to go below the total, as the UNDER is 27-4 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that's allowed 3.75 or less yards/play in their last game against an opponent who gained 225 or less total yards in their last contest. That's a 87% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total Dominator on FSU/NC State OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 66 points with Florida State doing most of the heavy lifting with 49 points. This year I'm expecting another high-scoring game, expect this time I look for NC State to contribute a lot more to push this way over the current mark of 58.5 points.

Defensively the Seminoles are going to be without several key players, including three key defensive linemen in defensive end Mario Edwards and defensive tackles Nile Lawrence and Justin Shanks. They will also be without outside linebacker Ukeme Eligwe. I know Florida State has a lot of talent, but were talking about a unit that lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2013.

The numbers speak for themselves in how the Seminoles are not as strong defensively this year as they were in 2013. Florida State comes in ranked 50th in the country in total defense, giving up 364.4 ypg, including a staggering 170.7 ypg on the ground. Last year the Seminoles only surrendered 280.0 ypg and just 125.0 ypg on the ground.

NC State has looked especially strong on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 26th in the country in total offense (502.1 ypg), with the strength of their attack being their run game (248.8 ypg). With Florida State likely coming out flat after that big game against Clemson, I'm looking for the Wolfpack to put up close to 30 points.

While the offense has been impressive, the defense isn't as good as the numbers would indicate, as the 159 yards they allowed to USF really throws things off. The Wolfpack gave up 438 yards to Georgia Southern and 504 to Old Dominion. With Winston back in the lineup, I look for Florida State should have no problem scoring close to 40 points. 

There's a key system backing the OVER based on NC State's strong start to 2014. The OVER is 43-16 over the last 10 seasons when you have a total set at 56.5 to 63 points with a home team coming in off 4 or more straight wins and undefeated on the season. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Maryland/Indians OVER

I'm expecting a ton of offense in this one, as we get two explosive offenses going up against a couple of suspect defenses. Maryland comes in averaging 36.8 ppg and Indiana isn't far behind at 33.7 ppg. Those are impressive numbers when you take into account that the Terrapins have played 3 respectable defenses in non-conference play in USF, West Virginia and Syracuse, while Indiana has faced both Bowling Green and Missouri.

When you look at the defensive numbers of these two teams, you really start to see the value in the OVER. Indiana comes in 82nd in the country, giving up 414.7 ypg. The big key here being that they are 100th against the pass (288.7 ypg) and Maryland is more of a pass-first team with veteran quarterback C.J. Brown and a outstanding receiver in Stefon Diggs. Brown also possess the ability to beat you with his feet, making it that much harder on the Hoosiers defense.

Maryland has been even worse than Indiana defensively. The Terrapins come in ranked 105th in total defense, giving up 460.6 ypg. The Terps have struggled both against the run (199.3 ypg) and the pass (261.3 ypg). The Hoosiers have one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nate Sudfeld, who comes in completing 65.2% of his attempts with an average completion of 7.72 yards. Indiana also has a big time weapon at running back in Tevin Coleman, who has 569 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground and another 95 yards through the air in just 3 games.

It's also worth noting that this will be the first ever meeting between the two schools and that's typically an advantage for the offenses, as the defense doesn't really know what to expect. Both teams are also coming off big wins that saw them get revenge on opponents they lost to last year, which could have the intensity down a bit on the defensive side of the ball. Maryland beat Syracuse 34-20 (lost to Orange 3-20 in 2013) and Indiana stunned Missouri 31-27 on the road (lost 28-45 to Tigers in 2013).

There's also a huge system in play backing this game to finish OVER the total of 69.5. The OVER is 28-7 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 63 or more with a home team that has an excellent offense (6.1 or more yards/play) after allowing 450 or more total yards in their last two games. That's a 80% system. Take the OVER!

3* Oklahoma/West Virginia NCAAF Over/Under Main Event on OVER

The last time these two teams faced off in Morgantown they combined for 99 points and I'm expecting another shootout in 2014. West Virginia has looked as impressive as any team in the country on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers come in ranked 13th in total offense at 564.3 ypg and are 4th in passing behind the emergence of senior quarterback Clint Trickett. That's saying something when you consider one of their games came against Alabama.

Oklahoma has been no slouch on the offensive side of the ball either, the Sooners bring a well balanced attack into this one, which ranks 34th in passing (293.3 ypg) and 42nd in rushing (196.7 ypg). They are also 15th in scoring at 44.7 ppg. West Virginia's defense simply doesn't have the talent to contain Oklahoma. Just this past week they gave up 37 points and 447 yards of total offense to Maryland, including a 163 yards rushing (6.0 ypc).

The Sooners defense enters a respectable 19th in the nation, only giving up 295.3 ypg, but this is without a doubt the best offense they have faced to date. The big key here is that the strength of Oklahoma's defense is their ability to stop the run. West Virginia is a pass-first team and I look for them to rack up a bunch of big plays down the field. If the Mountaineers can throw for 365 yards on Alabama, I got no reason to believe they can't top 400 against the Sooners.

Adding to that is that because West Virginia doesn't run the ball and look for big plays in the passing game, it's going to lead to some quick scores and more importantly stretch this game out and give each team more possessions to work with. Keep in mind that Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, which should have them throwing a little more than normal.

The OVER is 13-3 in West Virginia's last 16 home games against teams who average 250 or passing yards, 23-9 in their last 32 home games after going over the total last time out and 9-1 in their last 10 after throwing for 325+ yards in 2 consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 78% (45-13) system. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Over/Under NO LIMIT Total Top Play on Utah St/Arkansas St UNDER

The books have simply not adjusted this total enough. Utah State will be playing this game without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton and Arkansas State will be without their best rusher in Michael Gordon. Keeton was one of just 3 returning starters for the Aggies on the offensive side of the ball and he's without a doubt their best player.

It's also important to note that both of these teams have not been impressive offensively so far in 2014. Utah State ranks 100th in passing (197.0 ypg) and 76th in rushing (157.0 ypg), while Arkansas State is just 73rd in passing (230.0 ypg) and 61st in rushing (172.3 ypg).

Offensively both of these teams focus more on the running game and that sets up well for both defenses. Utah State is only giving up 62 ypg on a mere 2 yards/rush. Arkansas State on the other hand is only allowing 2.0 yards/carry at home and are in a great spot not having to worry about Keeton.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Utah State's last 15 road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games, 10-2 in the Aggies last 12 after two or more straight wins and 16-6 in Arkansas State's last 22 games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards. These trends combine for a 76% (38-11) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Florida/Alabama SEC Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between Florida and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have not been as explosive offensively their 42.0 ppg would suggest. They scored just 33 in the opener against West Virginia, who is the only legit competition they have faced. Florida is a strong defensive team that has 7 returning starters and matches up well with Alabama's offense.

The Gators are strong up front, as they come in allowing just 2.4 yards/rush. I look for them to keep Alabama's high-powered rushing attack in check and really make the Crimson Tide work offensively to move the ball down the field. That should have Alabama eating up a lot of possession. The other key here is that the Crimson Tide have basically only involved star wide out Amari Cooper in the passing game. He leads the nation with 33 receptions and that's 24 more receptions than the next closest player. Florida has the perfect weapon to slow Cooper down and that's stud sophomore corner Vernon Hargreaves.

On the other side of the ball, there's not a lot of explanation needed to why Alabama should be able to keep the Gators offense in check. The Crimson Tide are loaded with talent on the stop unit once again and Florida's offense is nothing to write home about. The Gators only managed to score 20-points in regulation last week against SEC bottom feeder Kentucky at home. Not only will this be their first road test of the season, but it's one of the most difficult places in the entire country to play.

Each of the previous 3 meetings between these two schools at Bryant-Denny Stadium have finished UNDER the total and the two haven't combined for more than 51 points in a game since 1999.

UNDER is 9-1 in Alabama's last 10 games after scoring 50 or points last time out, 34-15 in their last 49 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and 22-7 in Florida's last 29 off a home game where they failed to cover in a straight up win. These trends combine to form a % 74% (65-23) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Virginia/BYU UNDER

The total for Saturday's rematch between BYU and Virginia has been set too high. These two teams played at Virginia last season and combined for just 35 points and 585 yards of total offense and that was with the two teams scoring 16 points in the 4th quarter.

BYU has looked impressive on the offensive side of the ball, thanks in large part to play of junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has thrown for 689 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushed for another 356 yards and 6 scores. It's no secret that the key to slowing down the Cougars is to keep Hill in check. Virginia did an excellent job of doing just that last year. Hill completed just 13 or 40 pass attempts for 175 yards and was held to 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.

With 9 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and two impressive performances already this season against the likes of UCLA and Louisville, I look for Virginia to have another strong showing defensively in this one.

While the defense looks to be in good shape, I don't see the Cavaliers' having much success offensively against a talented BYU defense that comes in allowing just 14.0 ppg on 313 yards/game. The Cougars have been especially strong against the run, giving up just 2.1 yards/carry. Virginia's offense comes in ranked 97th in passing (203.3 ypg) and 96th in rushing (130.3 ypg). Their best player is senior running back Kevin Parks and when he's not able to get going this team really has a difficult time moving the ball.

The UNDER is 20-8 in Virginia's last 28 games against a team that's allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/attempt and 14-4 in their last 18 against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession. The UNDER is also 10-1 in BYU's last 11 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards and 6-0 in their last 6 versus teams who are completing 62% or better of their pass attempts. These trends combine to form a 79% (50-13) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Army/Wake Forest UNDER

I'm expecting an offensive struggle in Saturday's matchup between Wake Forest and Army. These two teams played last year and combined for 36 points. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even less scoring this time around. Wake Forest is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. In fact, they rank 123rd in the country in total offense, averaging just 237.7 ypg. Army put up 47 points against Buffalo in their opener, but they were shutout and managed just 207 total yards last week against Stanford.

They big key here is that while Wake Forest has been awful on offense, they have looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball in the first year under head coach Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons rank 17th in the nation in total defense, giving up just 291.3 ypg. Most importantly against a team like Army who basically only runs the ball, is that Wake Forest is giving up just 2.7 yards per rush attempt.

I'm expecting both teams to come in focused on establishing the running game, which should limit possessions for both teams and eat up a lot of clock without much scoring. Exactly what you are looking for to go UNDER the total.

UNDER is 20-7 in the last 27 games Clawson has coached on his team's home field and 32-16 in Wake Forest's last 48 non-conference games. It's also 23-8 in the Demon Deacon's last 31 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. These trends combine to form a 72% (81-32) system. Take the UNDER!

3* UConn/South Florida NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I was a bit surprised that the books opened this total as high as they did, but you won't find me complaining about the value. Not only do we have two awful offenses going head-to-head, but these two schools have a history of playing extremely low-scoring games when they face off on the gridiron. In fact, each of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 35-points or less, including last year's matchup that saw a whopping 23-points in USF's 13-10 win. '

While South Florida's defense was torched for 49 points and 589 yards of total offense last week by NC State, UConn simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to come anywhere close to that kind of offensive production. The Huskies come into this game ranked 115th out of 125 FBS teams in total offense, averaging just 289.3 ypg. I mean Connecticut only managed to score 19 points and muster 223 yards of offense at home against Stony Brook.

The Bulls have been equally bad on offense, as they come in ranked 113th in total offense at just 300.3 ypg. The big key here is that South Florida has no passing attack. The Bulls are 116th in the nation, averaging just 151.3 ypg through the air. Connecticut has been respectable against the run given the teams they have played. They are only allowing 3.6 yards/carry and most of the yards they have allowed came against BYU’s (205) high-powered attack. The Huskies limited Boise State’s talented back Jay Ajayi to just 39 yards on 18 attempts (2.2 ypc). With no threat of the pass, I look for Connecticut to have no problem shutting down the Bulls’ offense.

There's a strong system in play, as the UNDER has gone 52-20 since 1992 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team comes off a contest where they allowed 75 or less rushing yards against an opponent who gained 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. That's a 72% system pointing clearly in our direction. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on BC/USC OVER

I look for USC and Boston College to fly over the total of 50.5 on Saturday. USC scored 52 points and put up over 700 yards of total offense in their opener against Fresno State, as they ran a conference-record 105 plays. The Trojans are clearly trying to play at a faster pace this year and I don't see the Eagles being able to slow them down.

Boston College allowed Pittsburgh to score 30 points on 414 yards of total offense at home last week and it could have been a lot worse had the Panthers not had to settle for 3 field goals. USC is on a whole different level than Pittsburgh in terms of talent and athleticism on the offensive side of the ball and I wouldn't be shocked if they covered the total on their own.

However, I do expect to see Boston College score some points, whether it come early or late in the game when this one has turned into a blowout. USC has a strong defense, but I just don't see them playing with a ton of intensity on that side of the ball after laying it all on the line last week against Stanford.

I see no way the Trojans don't manage at least 500 yards of total offense, which is an important number. The OVER is 14-4 in Boston College's last 18 games when they allow 500+ yards of total offense and 7-0 in the Trojans last 7 games when they gain 500+ yards of total offense. Take the OVER!

*Even with the total jumping up to 55, I still recommend a play on the OVER*

3* Non-Conference Total Dominator on TCU/Minnesota UNDER

I feel like the books have set this total too high based on what these two offenses have done against poor competition. Minnesota put up 42 points on Eastern Illinois and 35 against Middle Tennessee, while TCU hung 48 on Samford.

I don't see either offense having anywhere close to that kind of success in this one. Both of these teams return a lot of talent to a couple of strong defensive units from last year. The Golden Gophers have 7 starters back on a defense that allowed just 22.2 ppg in 2013, while the Horned Frogs return 7 from a unit that only gave up 25.3 ppg. TCU has always fielded a strong defense under head coach Gary Patterson and Minnesota has improved with each year under head coach Jerry Kill.

Another big key here is that both of these team focus more on the run. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin threw for 320 yards and 2 scores against Samford, but he's not your typical pocket passer. He only had 1,198 yards and 7 TDs over 9 starts last year, which has me thinking his big numbers in Week 1 are result of the competition. Minnesota on the other hand is almost exclusively only looking to run. The Golden Gophers had 40 rushing attempts to 18 passes against Eastern Illinois and 50 rushing attempts to just 11 passes versus Middle Tennessee.

Both teams should eat up a lot of clock when they have the ball and with the strong defenses I don't see enough big plays for this game to eclipse 48 points.

UNDER is 10-4 in Minnesota's last 14 games played on grass, 16-5-1 in their Horned Frogs last 22 after accumulating more than 280 passing yards and 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing less than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Virgina/Louisville ACC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I don't see Louisville and Virginia exceeding 49 combined points on Saturday. The Cardinals' defense completely shutdown Miami in their ACC debut in Week 1, limiting the Canes to just 244 yards of total offense. Virginia has also had an impressive defensive showing against a potent offense, as they held UCLA to just 358 yards and held the Bruins offense to just 7 points.

What really impressed me with Louisville against Miami was their defensive front, which held star running back Duke Johnson to just 90 yards on 20 attempts and overall held the Hurricanes to just 70 yards on 27 attempts (2.6 yards/carry). Virginia likes to run their offense through running back Kevin Parks and I just don't see them being able to establish the run here, which should have their offense completely out of rhythm.

Virginia is giving up just 2.5 yards/carry on the ground and have been respectable against the pass. The Cavaliers are better defensively than they get credit for because of last year's 2-10 record. They have 9 starters back on that side of the ball and I look for them to give Louisville's inexperienced sophomore quarterback Will Gardner a lot of problems. 

With both offenses figuring to have a difficult time moving the ball, I don't expect to see many touchdowns in this one, which is crucial for going under a total of just 49 points.

There's a strong system in play. The UNDER has hit 75% (39-13) of the time over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 59 points where the home team allowed 3 or less points in the 1st half of their last game in a matchup between two teams that are both outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the UNDER!

4* Houston/BYU Over/Under Total Dominator on OVER

The books have simply not set the bar high enough in this one. I look for BYU and Houston to fly OVER the total of 57. Last year these two teams combined for 93-points in a 47-46 BYU vicotry. It might not be that high-scoring, but I don't see this one finishing with less than 60 points with the talent these two teams have on offense.

BYU has been one of the more impressive teams in the early going of 2014. The Cougars put up 35 on the road against Connecticut in their opener and 41 at Texas this past weekend. Offenses typically are even better at home and I expect that to be the case for BYU on Thursday. Last year the Cougars put up 681 yards of total offense against Houston and I just haven't seen enough from Houston to believe they are going to slow down Taysom Hill and BYU's high-powered attack.

One of the reasons I think this total is so low, is because of the fact that BYU has only allowed 17 points combined in their first two games. While that's an impressive accomplishment, it came against a couple of bad offensive teams. Connecticut is picked to finish last in the American Athletic and average just 20.6 ppg in 2013. Texas was without starting quarterback and playing behind an offensive line that didn't feature a single returning starter.

I look for Houston to be able to move the ball at a similar rate to what we saw last year in this matchup. BYU lost their leading tackler in linebacker Uani Unga and their 2-time All-American linebacker in Kyle Van Noy. Last year Houston's passing attack racked up 435 yards and it's teams who can pick up big yards through the air that tend to give BYU the most trouble.

The OVER is 23-9 in Houston's last 32 games off a home win by 17 or more points, 27-10-1 in their last 38 games after allowing 20 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games played on a Thursday. These trends combine to form a 75% (56-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* North Texas/LA Tech Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to struggle to get their offense going in this one. These two teams combined for just 41 points in last year's meeting and I'm expecting even less than that this time around.

North Texas is coming in off a dominant defensive performance at home against SMU. The only points the Mean Green allowed the entire games against the Mustangs came on a last second 33-yard touchdown pass as time expired in regulation. Of the 276 yards of total offense North Texas gave up to SMU, 147 of those yards came on their final two drives with the game already in the books.

Louisiana Tech returned 7 starters to a defense that only allowed 26.3 ppg in 2013. While they allowed 48 in their opener against a much more talented Oklahoma squad, they held a potent Louisiana-Lafayette offense to just 20 points last week. North Texas isn't as strong of an offensive team as the 43-points they scored last week would indicate. The Mean Green rely almost exclusive on their running game, as they don't have much to work with at the quarterback position. The Bulldogs know this and are going to load the box and force North Texas to try an beat them with the pass.

I look for the Mean Green to come in focused on strong defense and controlling the time of possession with their ground attack. I just don't see enough possessions here for these two teams to surpass this total.

The UNDER is 11-2 in their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points, 8-0 in North Texas' last 8 home games against a conference opponent and 8-0 in their last 8 games after scoring 42 points. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 93% (27-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/under Total No Brainer on Phillies/Pirates UNDER

I believe there's a ton of value on the Phillies and Pirates to finish UNDER the total set of 7.5. The Pirates will send out Francisco Liriano, who has a strong 2.67 ERA and 1.137 WHIP over 11 road starts and comes in with a 0.95 ERA and 1.053 WHIP over his last 3 outings.

The Phillies will counter with A.J. Burnett, who has been much stronger at home compared to on the road. Burnett has a 4.29 ERA and 1.377 WHIP overall, but features a much more respectable 3.41 ERA and 1.274 WHIP over 14 home starts. Burnett allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 7 innings in his last start versus the Nationals and comes in with a 2.77 ERA and 1.192 WHIP over 4 career starts against Pittsburgh.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Liriano's 11 road starts in 2014, 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 5 against a team with a losing record. The UNDER is also 22-8 in Burnett's last 30 starts as a home underdog and 19-8 in his last 27 home starts with a total set between 7 to 7.5 runs. These trends combine to form a 78% (64-18) system. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Total No Brainer on Royals/Tigers UNDER

I look for tonight's AL Central showdown between the Tigers/Royals to finish UNDER the total set of 7.5. Detroit will send out their ace Max Scherzer, who has been lights out at home this season. Scherzer is 9-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.033 WHIP over 12 home starts. The Royals counter with Jason Vargas, who has been equally impressive on the road. Vargas has a 2.48 ERA and 1.218 WHIP over 12 road starts.

The UNDER is 20-8 in the Royals last 28 road games when listed as an underdog of +125 to +150, 34-13-3 in their last 50 after allowing 5+ runs in their last game and 8-2 in their last 10 against a right-handed starter. The UNDER is also 9-1 in Scherzer's last 10 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 74% (67-23) system. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator on Rangers/Mariners UNDER

I look for today's game between the Rangers and Mariners to feature a pitchers duel between Seattle's James Paxton and Texas' Derek Holland. Paxton is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.064 WHIP over 8 starts this season, while Holland made an impressive return from the DL, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits with 0 walks over 7 innings at Kansas City.

One of Paxton's 8 starts came against the Rangers back on 8/26. In that start he held Texas to just 4 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings. While this will be Holland's first look at the Mariners in 2014, he's got 3.14 ERA and 1.169 WHIP over 13 career starts against Seattle.

UNDER is 19-5-3 in Seattle's last 27 games against a left-handed starter, 16-7 in their last 23 road games with a money line of -100 to -150 and 5-0 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series. The UNDER is also 10-2 in Texas' last 12 games against a left-handed starter, 14-4-3 in their last 21 as an underdog of +100 to +150 and 9-1 in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less. These Trends combine to form a 79% (73-19) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on New Mexico/Arizona St OVER

I look for Arizona State and New Mexico to have no issues eclipsing the total of 67 for this matchup. Don't be fooled by the Sun Devils only allowing 14-points in their opener against a bad FCS opponent in Weber State. Arizona State has just two starters back on the defensive side of the ball and are going to give up a lot more than 14-points when they play better teams.

While New Mexico isn't a top notch opponent, I like their chances of moving the football against the Sun Devils. The Lobos put up 410 rushing yards against UTEP in the opener and their option-based attack is difficult to prepare for, especially for a team like Arizona State that doesn't see a whole lot of it.

As for the Arizona State offense, they should have no problem putting up a big number against a Lobos' defense that surrendered 446 yards to UTEP. That was actually a better than normal performance for the defense, as New Mexico allowed 42.8 ppg and 517 ypg in 2013. They allowed more than 65-points twice last year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sun Devils flirted with that mark in this one.

Solid system in play on the OVER in this one. The OVER is 30-7 (81%) since 1992 in games with a total of 63 or more points, where one team allowed 24 or more points in the first half of their last game (New Mexico) against an opponent who was leading at the half by 24 or more points in their last contest. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on USF/Maryland UNDER

This may seem like a low total based on what these two teams did in their opener, but I look for this one to finish well below the mark. Maryland scored 52 points in their opener at home against James Madison, which isn't saying much. South Florida's defense isn't great but it's more than capable of slowing down the Terrapins. It's also worth noting that Maryland isn't as strong of a team on the road as they are at home.

The big key here is that I don't expect the Bulls to do much of anything offensively. South Florida scored 36 last week against a bad Western Carolina squad and did so almost exclusively running the football. They had 294 yards rushing and just 181 yards passing. The Bulls are going to find it much more difficult to run against the Terrapins. Maryland has 9 starters back on a defense that only gave up 149 yards (3.7 ypc) last year. Due to USF not having a passing game they can rely on, the Bulls will keep running and eating up clock, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 22-9 in Maryland's last 31 games after scoring 37 or more points and 21-9 in their last 30 after a win by 17+ points. The UNDER is also 13-3 in South Florida's last 16 games when listed as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a game that finished over the total. These trends combine to form a 75% (63-21) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Miss St/UAB OVER

I'm expecting this game to fly over the total. Both of these teams put on a show offensively in their opener. Mississippi State scored 49 points on 550 yards of total offense versus Southern Miss, while UAB put up 48 points on 490 yards of total offense in their win over Troy.

It should come as no surprise that I'm expecting the majority of the points scored here to come from the Bulldogs. UAB may have held Troy to just 10 points, but they are completely outmatched against a big time opponent from the SEC. Last year the Blazers gave up 56 points to LSU and 52 to Vanderbilt. I fully expect to see Mississippi State to score at least 45 and wouldn't be surprised if they topped 50.

With that said, I do think the Blazers will be able to add in some garbage points late and potentially even a touchdown or two early. UAB added in former Washington State recruit Cody Clement at quarterback and have a big time playmaker at running back in Jordan Howard.

Further supporting my play here is the fact that the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in UAB last 6 games when listed as a road underdog and in these games they have seen an average combined score of 74 points. Take the OVER!

4* Pitt/Boston College NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high in Friday's ACC showdown between Pittsburgh and Boston College. The Panthers exploded for 62 points in their opener against Delware, but don't let that fool you into thinking Pitts going to have an explosive offense. Pittsburgh only average 26.3 ppg last year and played in the weak AAC.

Boston College on the other hand only managed to score 30 points against a bad UMass defense that allowed 33.0 ppg in 2013. The Eagles only returned 3 starters on offense and lost their most important piece in running back Andre Williams, who had 2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Another key point to make is that both of these teams focus their offense around the running game, which should limit the amount of possessions for both squads. I look for touchdowns to be hard to come by and I'm not expecting much of anything offensively from BC.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pittsburgh's last 9 games played on a Friday, 9-4 in their last 13 after a game where they scored more than 20 points and 7-2 in their last 9 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. The UNDER is also 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 games on Friday, 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 275 or less total yards and 20-7 in their last 27 following a SU win.

3* MLB Total Dominator on A's/Angels UNDER

I look for tonight's showdown between the A's and Angels to finish well below the mark of 7 runs set for the total. Oakland will be sending out Jon Lester, who has gone 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA over 5 starts since being traded to the A's from Boston. One of those starts included a matchup against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 7 innings of a 1-2 loss.

The Angels counter with their ace Jered Weaver, who has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts. Weaver did just give up 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 2/3 innings at Oakland, but he's a much better pitcher at home. Weaver has a 3.72 ERA and 1.233 WHIP overall and a 2.89 ERA and 1.097 WHIP at home.

The UNDER is 29-9 in Weaver's last 38 home starts against a division opponent, 4-1 in his last 5 following a quality start and 43-17-3 in his last 63 starts at home with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The UNDER is also 20-4-3 in Weaver's last 27 starts against the Athletics and 25-10-3 in the last 38 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. These trends combine to form a massive 75% (121-41-9) system in favor of the UNDER!

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on.

If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199.

The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games.

The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER

These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over.

San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season.

The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER

While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason.

With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points.

Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana.

The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER

The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total.

In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena.

It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1.

The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out.

The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER -

I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line.

The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER

I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point.

That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home.

The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER!