Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Boca Raton Bowl Total NO-BRAINER  on Akron OVER

There's a strong tendency for these bowl games to go OVER the total and I think we are going to see a very high scoring game tonight between Akron and FAU. We are expecting the Owls to do the heavy lifting here, though we also expect the Zips to have a strong showing on the offensive side of the ball. 

Florida Atlantic comes in averaging 39.8 ppg and have a big advantage with this bowl game being played on their home field, where they put up 42 ppg and 535 ypg in the regular season. Akron simply doesn't have the defense to slow down this offensive attack. The Zips are 100th in the country against the run, giving up 197.2 ypg and will be facing an Owls offensive attack that ranked 6th in the nation with 283.2 ypg on the ground. FAU is also a fast-striking offense and it wouldn't shock me to see them have close to 40 points in the 3rd quarter. 

Akron's offense isn't anything special, but I think they can score close to 30 here, and don't be surprised if a lot of those points come late after this one is out of hand. The Zips have a decent passing attack that likes to throw deep, which should lead to some quick scores, as they face an FAU defense that was much better against the run than the pass. The Owls finished a mere 92nd against the pass, giving up 242.5 ypg. Give me the OVER! 

3* Falcons/Bucs MNF Total NO BRAINER on Falcons OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the mark set by the books here tonight. Typically division games are a little more low scoring, but that's simply not the case with these two teams. Each of the last 3 games in this series have seen these two teams combine for at least 54 points, including a recent meeting in Week 12 at Atlanta and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at QB for the Bucs. 

Jameis Winston has since returned to the line. While turnovers continue to be a problem for Winston, there's a good chance if those mistakes happen tonight, it's going to set up the Falcons with a short field. Either way, I think the Bucs offensively are going to put up a big number and they are going to need it, as the Falcons should score early and often. In that recent meeting in Week 12, Atlanta had 516 total yards and had 20 points at the half. 

OVER is 5-1 the last 6 times the Falcons have been on Monday Night Football. OVER is also 15-5-1 in Atlanta's last 21 off a win and 10-0-1 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Pacers. These two teams have been playing much better defensively here of late.

Brooklyn is allowing 111 ppg on the season, but are only giving up just 105 ppg over their last 5. Indiana is only giving up 103.6 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 games and 4-1 in the Pacers last 5.

Indiana has also scored less than 100 in two straight, while Brooklyn is only averaging 96.6 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pats OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in Sunday's huge AFC showdown between the Steelers and Patriots. Forget about how bad New England's offense looked last week against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The Patriots didn't show up ready to play and Brady played about as poorly as he has all season. The great players almost always rebound from a bad showing like that with one of their best games. Let's also not forget he was without a big time weapon in tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

I also think this Steelers defense is no where close to what it was early on in the season, as they recently lost their best player on that side of the ball in Ryan Shazier. He doesn't get the respect as some of the big time players in this league, but I think his importance to this defense is similar to that of Luke Kuechley with the Panthers. In the very first game without him last week against the Ravens, they let Baltimore put up 38 points and nearly 415 yards of offense. That's not a good Ravens offense and keep in mind they held Baltimore to just 9 points and 288 total yards on the road earlier this season. 

On the flip side of this, I think we are going to see Big Ben and the Steelers offense have a lot of success here. While the Patriots defense has been playing better, they too have lost some key players on defense and have several others who are questionable to play this week. I think we get more than enough here from Pittsburgh to push this well past the total set by the books. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Thunder. Philadelphia comes in off an impressive 118-112 road win over the Timberwolves. The 76ers are now averaging 108.6 ppg, while allowing 108.9 ppg. In Philadelphia's last 5 games, the average final combined score has been 223 points. 

OKC has had all kinds of problems offensively, but I don't think this 76ers defense is going to be good enough to slow them down. I also think we don't see the best from the Thunder defensively off that emotional game on Wednesday at the Pacers, where Paul George made his return to Indiana. Look for these two teams to light up the nets tonight on ESPN. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action between the Clippers and Wizards. The Clippers just can't seem to stay healthy. Going into tonight's game they will be without Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers. They will be taking on a Wizards team that has been playing well defensively, as they are only giving up just 98.8 ppg over their last 5, while also holding their opponents to just 43% from the field. 

As for the Wizards, they are coming off a couple of poor showings offensively. First they only managed 98 on the road against the Nets and then in John Wall's return against Memphis, they only finished with 93. Clippers have held each of their last 2 opponents to 95 or less and really have no choice be to try and slow the game way down to stay competitive. I think these two will be lucky to hit 200. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Warriors OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Warriors hosting the Mavericks. Golden State is still without Steph Curry and aren't expected to have Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia or Nick Young for this one. I think those players not being available is playing into this short number on the total. The Warriors still have two prolific scorers in Durant and Thompson. I also think the loss of Green hurts them defensively, especially with Pachulia also out. They will have no choice but to play small. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but a big part of why they don't score a ton is they like to play at a slow pace. They will have no choice here but to play with the Warriors tempo on the road and I think we see a slightly higher scoring output from them here. 

OVER is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 vs teams from the Western Conference and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 against a bad team like Dallas that has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the OVER! 

3* Broncos/Colts TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Colts OVER

I really like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NFL action that has the Colts hosting the Broncos. It's no secret that Denver has a great defense. Those that forgot, the Broncos reminded them of how good they are last week against the Jets, who they shutout and held to 100 total yards. I believe that strong effort combined with the Colts struggles on offense has this total way to low. 

The biggest thing here is that neither team has anything to play for right now and it's no secret how much these players hate these Thursday night games. I just don't see either team being all that motivated in this one and we continue to see teams struggle defensively in these Thursday games.

As good as the numbers say Denver's defense is, they had allowed at least 20 points in 8 straight prior to last week and are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg. As far as the Colts defense is concerned, they aren't very good. I also think we see both teams take a lot more shots down the field with this game not meaning anything. Wouldn't be shocked at all if these two hit 50 points. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. 

I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs OVER

Books have set the bar too low for Sunday's total between the Mavs and Timberwolves. Dallas doesn't have great offensive numbers on the season, but are averaging 105.2 ppg over their last 5, which includes a 122-point outburst against the Nuggets. Minnesota's not a good defensive team, as they allow 107 ppg. The Wolves are a good offensive team and are averaging 109 ppg over their last 5. I think these two teams easily hit the 215 mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Giants UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Giants. With last week's impressive 38-14 win over the Redskins, Dallas improved to 6-6, keeping their playoff hopes alive. New York lost 17-24 at Oakland and following the loss the team fired head coach Ben McAdoo. They also stated that after not starting against the Raiders, Eli Manning would take back the starting job. 

It might seem like the Giants are a mess right now, but I'm pretty confident they are going to show up to play on Sunday. Simply put, these NFC East teams hate each other and New York would love nothing more than to play a part in keeping the Cowboys out of the playoffs. I expect a huge effort here from the Giants and I think that defense can keep the Cowboys in check. Keep in mind that Dallas had really struggled offensively in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliot and a big reason they scored 38 against the Redskins is Washington was decimated with injuries and playing on the road in a short week of rest. 

As for the Giants' offense, there's not a lot this unit can do right now. No matter how hard they play, they are still going to be extremely limited on that side of the ball. They still don't have any threat of a running game and the offensive line can pass block. I look for a highly motivated Dallas defense to keep them in check and for this to finish well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Lions OVER

I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Sunday's NFL action between the Lions and Bucs. Both these teams can score points in a hurry. Detroit's one of the higher scoring teams in the league at 26.2 ppg. Tampa Bay comes in averaging 23.3 ppg over their last 3 and the big key here is they will be going up against a Lions defense that allows 25.7 ppg. OVER is 10-4 in the Lions last 14 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 5-0 in their last 5 vs the NFC. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Blazers hosting the Wizards. I just feel like we are getting value here due to Washington coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive showing in a 69-116 loss at Utah. That's a Jazz team that's playing some of their best basketball and they just got back their defensive ace in big man Rudy Gobert. Simply put the Wizards didn't have it last night. I think we see a completely different team take the court tonight off that embarrassing loss. Keep in mind they had scored 100+ without John Wall in each of their previous two games against the 76ers and Pistons and will be up against a Blazers team that is giving up 109.4 ppg over their last 5. While the offense should be better, I think we get another poor showing from the Washington defense, as they play in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just let Utah shoot 57% from the field last night. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Texans OVER

Everyone knows the Texans aren't anywhere close to the same offensive team with Tom Savage at quarterback. After their struggles on MNF last week against the Ravens, I don't know that the perception can get much worse with Houston's offense. No one is going to be in a hurry to place a bet on the OVER in a game involving the Texans, especially against a pretty average offense like Tennessee. I think the books are well aware of this and have set the total too low for this matchup. 

While Savage threw 3 picks and the Texans only scored 16 points against the Ravens, I think they showed some positive signs. Savage did complete 22 of 37 for 252 yards, as he was able to get something going with DeAndre Hopkins, who had 7 catchers for 125. Keep in mind that was against a Baltimore secondary that is giving up the 2nd fewest yards. The week before Houston put up 31 on the Cardinal. Savage had 230 yards and Hopkins had 4 for 76. The Titans come in ranked 20th against the pass, giving up 234.3 ypg. I think Savage has a decent day here and the Texans score well into the 20's. 

I also think Tennessee's offense will produce here. The Titans are a different offensive team on their home field, as they are scoring 26.4 ppg at home this season. Houston's defense is good but not great and I think they get a little too much credit on that side of the ball. IN their last two games they let an awful Baltimore offense put up 23 and the week before gave up 21 to a Cardinals team that was starting a 3rd stringer at QB. Marcus Mariota should play well and it wouldn't shock me if the Titans hung a 30 spot here. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Wisconsin UNDER

I like the value here the total in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Wisconsin. I just think the mark here has been set way too high for this matchup. I know the Badgers have had an easy schedule and haven't faced a lot of great offenses, but this defense has been up to the task and I think they are for real on that side of the ball. As good as the Buckeyes have been offensively, I think they struggle here. 

While Ohio State put up great offensive numbers on the season, they did a lot of their damage against bad teams. This is also a team that only scored 16 on a Oklahoma defense that allowed 52 in a game and 30 or more 5 times. I just think that if you can take away the Buckeyes ground game, there offense struggles to move the ball. J.T. Barrett is not a great pocket passer and gets a lot of his big plays throwing deep against teams that have to load the box to stop the run. Wisconsin ranked 1st in the country, giving up only 80.5 ypg on the ground and held teams to just 2.6 yards/carry. 

The other key here is that even if the Buckeyes are able to move, I don't think they score enough to push this over the mark. That's because I think the Badgers are going to have a miserable time running the ball. Wisconsin relies even more than Ohio State on the running game and the Buckeyes are simply too good up front on the defensive line to get pushed around. Urban Meyer and his defense will take away the running game and I just don't think Hornibrook can make enough plays for the Badgers to put together more than a few scoring drives. Take the UNDER 52! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Saturday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it when the Nets host the Hawks. Neither of these teams are any good defensively and I don't see them giving a big effort on that side given the opponent. Brooklyn comes in allowing a staggering 115.4 ppg at home this season, so while the Hawks only average 102.8 ppg, look for them to eclipse that mark easily. Not that on the season the Nets are allowing teams to score close to 7 points more per game than what they average. Atlanta's defense isn't much better, as they are allowing 108.8 ppg and while the defense isn't any good for Brooklyn, this Nets team can put it in the basket, as they enter averaging 110.1 ppg on the season and a healthy 115 ppg at home. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks OVER

With both of these teams coming off great defensive efforts in their last game, I think it's created some great value here with the total and this one going OVER the mark set by the books. Last time out the Bucks held the Kings to just 87 points, while the Blazers limited the Knicks to just 91. 

I just think there's too much offensive fire-power here. Milwaukee has scored 108 or more in each of their first 3 games on their 4-game road trip, while the Blazers have scored at least 103 in each of their last 3. 

OVER is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Central Division. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DOMINATOR on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the total and it going OVER the mark set by the books in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. Utah simply isn't the same top tier defensive team without big man Rudy Gobert, who is out with a Tibia injury. At the same time, the Jazz have found a new spark plug offensively in rookie Donovan Mitchell. He's a big reason why Utah is putting up 109.8 ppg over their last 5. 

Denver is an ideal team for a high-scoring game, as they like to get up and down the floor and come in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and 113.6 ppg over their last 5. At the same time, the Nuggets are not a great defensive team. They are allowing 106.5 ppg overall and 110.2 ppg on the road. 

OVER is 12-3 in Utah's last 15 games over a home win by 10 or more and 15-4 in the Nuggets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Baylor OVER

I think we see Xavier and Baylor fly over the total here. The Musketeers feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Xavier comes in averaging 91.2 ppg, scoring on average nearly 16.5 ppg more than what their opponents give up. The fewest the Musketeers have scored in any single game is 80 and that was on the road against a good Wisconsin defense.

So while the Bears come in allowing just 59 ppg, I look for Xavier to continue to keep rolling on offense, especially with this game at home. As for the Baylor offense, they are putting up 78 ppg and should be able to hit that mark here against an Xavier defense that gave up 70 to the Badgers and 102 to Arizona State in their only two teams against good competition. 

OVER is 41-22 (65%) in Xavier's last 63 home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 33-14 in Baylor's last 47 as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's total between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams don't like each other and we can expect a big time effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. That was certainly the case in the first meeting between these two teams this season, as they combined for an even 200 with a total of 219.5. While the books have adjusted the number quite a bit from that contest, I still think it's way too high. 

The Clippers have really struggled offensively of late. In their last 4 games they have scored fewer than 100 points 3 times, twice failing to reach 90. The lone exception was against a horrible Hawks team, where they had 116. Lakers are giving up 107.1 ppg, but have shown flashes of being a decent defensive team and are currently 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 17-5 in the Clippers last 22 home games off a road win and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 on the road and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Nets UNDER 

I like the value here with this high total for Sunday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Nets. The UNDER has been a great bet with Memphis at home, as it's 8-2 so far this season. A big reason for that is the Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team and even when going up against a bad defense like Brooklyn tend to struggle to score. Memphis is also a great defensive team at home, as they are only giving up 99.3 ppg. The Nets are averaging nearly 4-points less on the road than they are for the season and I look for them to struggle here. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Brooklyn's last 16 games when they come in having scored 105 or more points in 3 straight games. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Grizzlies last 34 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's non-conference clash between the Bucks and Jazz. Both of these teams are strong defensively and the biggest key here is that neither of these teams like to push the pace. Utah ranks 26th in pace of play and the Bucks are right behind them at 27th. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.8 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a Jazz defense that is only giving up 95.3 ppg at home this season. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Bucks last 11 against a team with a losing record and 12-4-1 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in Utah's last 5 when playing a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 off a straight up win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Duke OVER

I think we are getting some decent value here with this total, as I see these two teams combining for at least 60 points on Saturday. Wake Forest has scored at least 30 in 4 straight games, including a 64 point outburst at Syracuse a couple weeks ago. Duke's offense snapped out of a major funk with 43 in their last game against Georgia Tech. With not a ton here for the Demon Deacons to play for, I don't see them being at the top of their game defensively here and they have  struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 38.3 ppg over their last 3. 

We also have a strong system in play. The OVER is 144-81 (64%) in the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 in the month of November with a team that's failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on MISSOURI UNDER

I just think we are seeing an inflated total here based on Missouri lighting up the scoreboard over their last 5 games, but those all came against either bad teams or teams that have thrown in the towel on this season. I think they have a lot harder time scoring on the road against a motivated Razorback defense that will have a little extra fight on senior day. 

Most people focus on all the points Missouri is scoring, but they have been lights out defensively as well of late. The Tigers have held each of their last 4 opponents to 17 points or less. Arkansas is far from a potent offense and aren't exactly clicking right now, having scored just 31 in their last two games combined. 

UNDER is 12-3 in Arkansas' last 15 home games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. UNDER is also 10-2 in Missouri's last 12 off a SU win by more than 20 points, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Thanksgiving Total NO BRAINER on Ole Miss UNDER

We are getting great value here with the UNDER in Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown between these two SEC West and in-state rivals. This total is calling for these two teams to score close to 70 points and I just don't see it happening. 

Mississippi State's defense didn't play great last week and still managed to hold Arkansas to just 21 points. It continued a trend of dominance on defense against the lesser teams in the SEC and there's no question that Ole Miss falls into that category. Not to mention we just saw the Rebels struggle against a quality defense at home last week, scoring just 24 against Texas A&M and this Bulldog defense is a class above the Aggies. 

Another key factor here is that the defensive intensity is going to be turned up a notch for both sides with this being a rivalry game. I know Mississippi State put up 55 on the Rebels last year, but that should only add fuel to fire for the Rebels and I'm willing to bank they show up and keep the Bulldogs from putting up anywhere close to that many points. 

UNDER is 22-8 in the Rebels last 30 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. It's also 20-8 in Mississippi State's last 28 off a came where they won but failed to cover as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

No team in the NBA plays at a slower pace than San Antonio and when you combine that with how efficient the Spurs are on the defensive side of the ball, you have a perfect recipe for low-scoring games.

The key here is we are getting value with this total due to the Pelicans struggles defensively, as they come in giving up 110.4 ppg. However, New Orleans has been much better defensively against division opponents, as they are only giving up 98.5 ppg. At the same time, the Spurs aren't a great offensive team right now, as they continue to play without Leonard and Parker and come in averaging a lousy 94.6 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 vs a division opponent and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 28-15 in the Spurs last 33 road games off a home win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Knicks and Raptors. These two teams just played last Friday and combined for just 191 points with a total of 217. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, I don't think it's near enough, as I think the two teams struggle to get to 200 points. 

Toronto is locked in right now on the defensive side of the ball, as they have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 42% or worse shooting. They also don't mess around when facing a division opponent, as they have held their Atlantic rivals to just 91 ppg this season. New York isn't a great defensive team, but better than they get credit for and are clicking on that side of the ball right now, as they are giving up just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Raptors last 10 division games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 20-7-1 in New York's last 28 against a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 vs at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ball State UNDER

I know the Cardinals defense hasn't been any good and that the OVER has cashed in each of Ball State's last 5 games. I believe it's created some value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's game against Miami (OH). The big key here is I just don't see the RedHawks being motivated at all for this one, as last week's 24-27 home loss to Eastern Michigan eliminated Miami (OH) from becoming bowl eligible.

The RedHawks could also be without their top two running backs, as both Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young are listed as questionable. Without the Miami putting up a big number, it's going to be hard for this one to eclipse the mark set by the books, as this Ball State offense is one of the worst in the country, as they come in averaging just 18.9 ppg and 331 ypg. I look for both teams to just go through the motions here, as the players likely can't wait to get this season over with. 

UNDER is also 11-1 in the RedHawks last 12 off a SU loss and 25-9 in their last 34 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Dolphins OVER

I just think this total has been set to low for Sunday's non-conference matchup between two teams that have been major disappointments in 2017. The Dolphins have lost 3 straight and are now just 4-5 and the Bucs are even worse at 3-6. Tampa Bay without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and the Dolphins viewed as one of the worst offense teams in the league. I believe that's playing a big part in this low total, which has created value with two bad defenses facing off. 

Miami has given up 40 or more in two of their last 3 games and have allowed at least 27 in 4 straight. This is the perfect defense for Tampa Bay's struggling offense to get back on track. As for the Bucs defense, they looked good last week against the Jets, but have allowed 30 or more 4 times already and this horrible Dolphins offense just put up 21 on the Panthers in Carolina and 24 the week before against the Raiders. It's not as bad as people think, and they due are poised for a bit of a breakout performance. 

Going back to last season the OVER is now 10-1 in Dolphins' games played in the 2nd half of the season. It's also a perfect 7-0 in Miami's last 7 home games after playing their previous game on the road. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Friday's showdown between the Spurs and Thunder. Without Kawhi Leonard the Spurs aren't the same efficient offense that we have grown accustomed to and OKC is still in the process of trying to figure out to play together. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and I just think given how big a game this is, that both teams will bring it defensively. 

Note that the Thunder have scored 94 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games and the Spurs only give up 98.9 ppg on the season. San Antonio has failed to reach 100 in 3 of their last 4 and twice failed to reach 90 points in this stretch. OKC is giving up just 97.1 ppg on the season and a mere 96.3 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Thunder's last 16 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 off a SU win. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 vs the West and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in San Antonio. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Thurs TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo OVER

For whatever reason the books have repeatedly set the bar way to low on the total for Ball State games. Last week their total was 49.5 against Northern Illinois and the game finished with 80 combined points. The game before they combined for 70 with a total of 47.5. The game before that saw 73 with a total of 55.5 and the contest before that their was 65 with a total of 48.5. 

I think we are once again going to see the total fly over the mark and it all stems from the Cardinals defense. Ball State is horrific on that side of the ball and even average offenses like Buffalo can score at will against it. The Cardinals have allowed 55 or more points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Buffalo just scored 38 last week and had 68 in a game earlier this season against Northern Illinois. I think the Bulls score close to 50 and we should at least get 14 from the home team. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Chargers UNDER

I believe we have a great matchup here for a low scoring game that will finish well below the mark set by the books. By now most everyone is aware of how good this Jacksonville defense has been this season. The Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 14.6 ppg and are 3rd in total defense, allowing just 281.3 ypg. 

The key here is that defense is built to stop the pass, as they are allowing a league-low 156.4 passing yards/game. Rivers and the Chargers' offense is built around the passing attack and that's evident by the fact that they rank 25th in rushing (88.9 ypg) and 12th in passing (243.9 ypg). I look for LA to have a really difficult time moving the ball here. 

As good as the defense has been, the Jaguars don't put the same fear into opposing teams when their offense has the ball. Jacksonville's primary focus is to just not lose the game on this side, as they are looking to grind it out by running the ball. That's perfect for a low-scoring game, as they are going to up up the clock and limit the possessions. Take the UNDER! 

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3* NCAAF Thurs. Total DESTROYER on Ball State UNDER

This is simply too many points for Thursday's MAC matchup that has Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. The reason we are seeing such a big total is the fact that the Cardinals have allowed 50+ points in each of their last 3 games, but the key here is the Huskies just aren't a dynamic offensive team, as they are only averaging 26.7 ppg. Conditions are also not going to be ideal for scoring, as temps will be right around freezing with a blistering 10+ mph wind. 

At the same time the Ball State offense is atrocious, as they come in averaging a mere 12.4 ppg on the road. Scoring won't come any easier against this Northern Illinois defense, which is only giving up 15.7 ppg at home this season and have been dominant against bad teams like the Cardinals. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Huskies last 7 home games and a staggering 13-3 in their last 16 games played in the month of November.

Adding to this is a great system where we look to take the UNDER with bad teams like Ball State who have struggled to cover. UNDER is 80-38 (68%) going back to 1992 when you have a team that comes in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 playing on a Thursday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Pelicans. I look for this one to stay well below the mark set by the books. Indiana comes in off 3 high scoring games on the road, which is certainly playing into this total. However, the UNDER is 3-1 in the Pacer's 4 home games this season.

In their last two home games they held the Spurs to just 94 points and the Kings to 83. New Orleans has two studs, but lacks shooting and have failed to eclipse 100 points in each of their last 4 games. At the same time, the Pelicans have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 100.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Pacers last 18 after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 11-1 in the Pelicans last 12 road games off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. 

Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Lions/Packers MNF Total NO BRAINER on Packers UNDER

I think we are going to see a defensive battle here on Monday Night Football between these two NFC North rivals. I also think we are getting some value here because of how high scoring this series has been, with each of the last 3 meetings seeing at least 50 combined points. 

That was with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for Green Bay. Without Rodgers under center the Packers simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win in a shootout. Keep in mind they scored just 10 points against Minnesota when Rodgers suffered the injury early in that contest and just 17 the next week at home against the Saints. I look for Green Bay to come out looking to establish the run and play ball control, which should be easier than it has been with some key guys returning on the offensive line. 

As for the Packers defense, I think they show up in a big way here at home in a prime time game. Not that Green Bay wasn't already familiar with Detroit, but it will only help the defense given they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this contest coming off their bye. This is also a good matchup for the Packers, who are much better against the pass than they are at stopping the run. Detroit is built around Matthew Stafford and the 12th ranked passing attack, as they are just 28th in rushing at 82.1 ypg. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. 

Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. 

They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. 

These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. 

We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Cowboys UNDER

When you look at this matchup on paper you would think these two will fly over the total, as you have the Cowboys coming in averaging 28.3 ppg and the Chiefs even better at 29.5 ppg. I see it the exact opposite and expect a much more tightly contested battle where both teams try to play keep away by using their high-powered running attacks to control the time of possession. 

Dallas shouldn't have any problem doing that now that Ezekiel Elliot has been cleared to play. KC's run defense is one of the worst in the league, giving up 131.1 ypg (28th). As for the Chiefs, they got a pretty special young running back of their own in Kareem Hunt. He's been slowed down a bit of late on the ground, but should be able to get going here as the Chiefs are finally getting back to 100% heath on the o-line. At the same time, KC does a lot of dink and dunk stuff with their offense that works just like running the ball, as their drives take up a lot of time. 

UNDER is 16-7 in the Chiefs last 23 games in the month of November, 24-7 in their last 31 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rams UNDER

With both the Rams and Giants coming off of their bye weeks, I expect a much lower scoring game than we would have got had these two been playing on normal rest. Each has had two weeks to prepare for the other side and that's a big advantage for these defenses. I also think there's some hidden value here with New York's defense, as they are very familiar with the schemes of McVay and the Rams from his time with the Redskins. 

As for the Giants offense, there's not a lot to be excited about. New York's down a couple of starters on the offensive line in center Weston Richburg and left guard Justin Pugh. Even when healthy the unit hasn't been. That combined with no threat of a running game and a passing attack that's missing their two star wide outs and it's going to be hard for New York to sustain drives against this improving LA stop unit. 

UNDER is a rock solid 9-2 in the Rams last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 11-3 in their last 14 games played on field turf. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Giants last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Diego State UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total that's been set by the books, as Saturday's late night MWC action features two of the worst offenses in the country in San Diego State and San Jose State. The Aztecs are 83rd in the country in scoring at 26.2 ppg and the Spartans are 120th at a dreadful 18.9 ppg. San Diego State also ranks 98th in total offense and San Jose State is 117th. 

Now I could see the Aztecs eclipsing their average, as this Spartans defense isn't very good. However, I don't see them going off, as they are struggling on the offensive side of the ball right now, scoring just 45 points in their last 3 games combined. 

At the same time, we are still going to be in great shape if San Diego State has a big offensive game, as there's a decent chance the Spartans don't reach double-digits. The Aztecs have a top tier defense that is allowing just 15.2 ppg and 255 ypg at home this season. San Jose State has also scored 13 or fewer points in 4 separate games this year. 

UNDER is 27-11-1 in the Aztecs last 39 games vs a team with a losing record, 31-14 in their last 45 road games after going UNDER the total in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 out of their last 3. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon UNDER

I think we are going to see a much more competitive and low-scoring game than what the books are anticipating. While it's still got some holes, this Oregon defense is greatly improved over last year's team, which allowed 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. So far through 9 games the Ducks are allowing just 29.2 ppg and 370 ypg. 

I also like the matchup here for Oregon. Washington's offense is built around their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, which comes in 16th nationally, allowing just 117.6 ypg. We can also expect a max effort here from Oregon, as they are out for revenge from last year's embarrassing 21-70 home loss to the Huskies. 

As for the Ducks offense, they could get back starting quarterback Justin Herbert, but I don't see them lighting up the scoreboard on the road against an elite Washington defense, which comes in 4th in the country, giving up just 12.1 ypg and 2nd in total defense at 236.2 ypg. They also matchup well with Oregon's run-first attack, as they are 2nd in the nation vs the run, giving up just 71.6 ypg and are only allowing 2.2 yards/carry. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Stanford UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER given the conditions here are going to be ideal for a low-scoring game. The expected game-time temperature is just above freezing at 34 degrees and there's a chance for freezing rain. That's certainly not ideal for a Washington State offense that is more reliant on their passing game than any other team in the country. The Cougars are 129th out of 130 teams in rushing at 84.1 ypg and lead the nation in passing at 386.7 ypg. 

At the same time, the strength of this Stanford defense is their secondary, which has allowed a mere 159 yards through the air in their last two games and held each of their last 4 opponents to under 240 yards passing. 

As for the Cardinals offense I think there's a good chance they are once again without star running back Bryce Love. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision, but hasn't been practicing and even if he does play figures to be at less than 100%. Stanford's offense was putrid without him in their last game against Oregon State, scoring just 15 points. This is also a very good Washington State defense, that ranks 16th in total defense, giving up only 309 ypg and are allowing just 16.8 ppg at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on UAB UNDER

I just don't think there's enough offensive fire-power here to eclipse this mark set by the books. Rice is simply one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The Owls are 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 13.1 ppg and 121st in total offense at just 315.7 ypg. UAB isn't a great defensive team by any means, but are good enough to shut down Rice. The Blazers are only giving up 18.7 ppg at home. 

The biggest thing here is neither of these teams are any good at throwing the ball, which means a lot of run plays. That will keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions for both sides. Rice is 120th in passing at 148.4 ypg and UAB is 98th at 188.9 ypg. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games and 40 in their last 4 overall. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Owls last 6 off a game where they didn't cover and 3-0-1 in their last 4 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Houston UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Saturday's AAC matchup that has Houston hosting East Carolina. I just feel the total here is way to high for this matchup. East Carolina's defense has allowed 50+ on 4 different occasions, but are coming off their best showing, holding BYU to 17 in their last game. 

The key here is the Cougars just aren't an explosive offensive team. They have only eclipsed 30 points in 3 of their 8 games this season and have not scored over 40 once. That includes a game against Texas Tech's horrific defense where they only managed 24 points.

Most of the teams that have exposed the Pirates defense have done so through the air. Houston has become more of a run first team of late, rushing 40 or more times in each of their last 4 games. Another key here for ECU's defense is they have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye. I think that will be more than enough to keep this under the mark. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Cougars last 13 home games off a win, 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games on Saturday. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Spurs UNDER

I don't see Friday's matchup between the Spurs and Hornets reaching 200 points, as I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. San Antonio has followed up a 4-0 start by dropping their last 4. The most recent being a 92-112 loss to the Warriors at home last night. San Antonio isn't use to stretches like this and know the best way to get back on track is to turn up the defensive pressure. 

Charlotte has won 3 straight and are off a 126-121 win over the Bucks. Head coach Steve Clifford wasn't exactly happy with the victory. He said it was the worst showing on defense the Hornets have had this season. I expect his team to respond with a big time effort. It will help they are catching the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back. San Antonio has also been struggling offensively here of late, scoring 94 or fewer points in each of their last 4 games. 

Keep in mind these are two teams that rank in the Top 10 on the season in defensive efficiency. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 road games, 5-2-1 in the Spurs last 8 against the Eastern Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Friday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO BRAINER on FAU/Marshall UNDER

I think we are getting an inflated total here in Friday's C-USA East showdown between FAU and Marshall. Lane Kiffin and the Owls have been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball inside conference play at 51.7 ppg. On the other side Marshall is coming off a game against FIU that had 71 combined points and have scored 30+ in each of their last 3. 

The books have no choice but to set the total here higher than it should be, as the public is going to look to pound the over with this being a prime time game. What's getting overlooked is just how big of a game this is. The winner of this game will be in a great position to win the East Division and play in the C-USA title game. 

I'm not saying these two teams aren't going to put up points, just not at the rate needed to eclipse this total. Unlike a lot of high-scoring teams that sling it all over the place, FAU is built around their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in the country at 295.9 ypg. I'm willing to bet they don't run all over the Herd, who own a top tier defense for a non-Group of 5 team. Marshall ranks 15th in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 24th in total defense (325.6 ypg). 

UNDER is 21-8 in Marshall's last 29 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3, 11-3 in their last 14 in the second half of the season and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Blazers UNDER

One of the things that I think is getting overlooked with this Lakers team early on is their improvements on defense. Last year LA ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency at 110.6. This year they are sitting at 6th at 100.0. I know it's early, but that's a very encouraging sign. 

I think that defense will play a big role in tonight's game against the Blazers, who are going to have tired legs after last night's overtime loss to the Jazz. Their stars in McCollum and Lillard both played more than 40 minutes. 

At the same time, I think Portland still shows up here defensively in a nationally televised game on TNT. I just don't think they have their normal pace offensively. Blazers are another team that's started out much better on the defensive side, as they ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and are in the Top 5 to start out 2017. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT on Clippers UNDER

I think we are getting some value here with the total, as this one has all the signs of a game that is going to stay UNDER the mark set here by the books. Los Angeles is coming off an embarrassing 28-point loss at home the Warriors, where they gave up 141 points to Golden State. 

I expect the Clippers to bounce back in a big way on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind that they came into that game having held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 points with the Blazers 103 the most they had allowed in a single game. 

Dallas might be lucky to break 90, as they are scoring just 90.3 ppg on the road this season. The Mavs also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Only Chicago and Utah are playing at a slower pace. Add that with the Clippers not being as up-tempo as years past with Chris Paul no longer running the point and there just doesn't figure to be enough possessions to eclipse this mark. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz UNDER

Utah is your ideal NBA team for low-scoring games. The Jazz are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while ranking near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and near the top in defensive efficiency. As low as this total might seem given today's high-scoring NBA, the average score in Utah's game this season is just 184.1 ppg.

The fact that the Jazz are playing at home is also important to note. Not only do opposing teams tend to struggle away from home, Utah is one of the more difficult places to play because of the thin air. So far this season they are only giving up 88.2 ppg at home. Portland is a good offensive team, but we saw them score just 85 last time out at home against the Raptors. The Blazers are also playing really good defense, limiting opponents to just 98.3 ppg. 

UNDER 5-1-1 in Utah's 7 games this season and 5-2 in Portland's 7 games. All signs point to another low-scoring game here that stays well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pacers UNDER 

This might feel like it's not enough points with how poorly the Cavs have been playing defensively, but I expect Cleveland to tighten things up against one of their Central Division rivals. Another thing is that the Cavs aren't clicking offensively, scoring just 101 ppg over their last 3.

That offense will be put to the test by an Indiana defense that has each of their last two opponents under 95 points. We can bank on a strong effort here by the Pacers against Cleveland, who is the measuring stick for all these other Eastern Conference teams. 

I also don't think we see a fast pace here. Cleveland's the oldest team in the league and their coach has flat out called them out of shape. Indiana on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 3rd in 4 days. The UNDER is a strong 34-14 in the Pacers last 48 when playing 3 in 4.

We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 (73%) when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 involving a team that's gone under the total by 12 or more points in two consecutive games (Pacers) and are playing a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA action between the Suns and Nets. I think the books have set the total way too high for this contest. Brooklyn's offense has struggled the past two games, scoring just 86 at New York and 111 at home to the Nuggets. The more telling stat is that the Nets have shot under 42% from the field in 4 straight games. 

Phoenix has been playing much better on defense under interim coach Jay Triano, allowing just 105.7 ppg after giving up 128.7 ppg under Watson. They have also been a lot better at defending the 3-point shot. Offensively the Suns are only scoring 102.5 ppg and a mere 97.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see enough offense here from Phoenix for this to go over this high total. 

UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Nets last 8 against a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-4-2 in their last 16 after giving up 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Pacers UNDER

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3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers UNDER

I expect a highly competitive game on Monday when the Rockets host the 76ers in Houston. While Philadelphia is just 2-4 on the season, their 4 losses have come against the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and these same Rockets. That defeat to Houston came last Wednesday, where the 76ers lost on a last second shot. 

Those two combined for just 209 points and that was with a huge 64 point 1st quarter. After that neither team scored more than 26 in a single quarter and I look for defense to again be the story with the familiarity these two teams now have with each other. Both teams could also be missing some key scorers. Philadelphia's J.J. Redick is questionable with a back injury and Houston, who is already without Chris Paul, could be minus Eric Gordon, who is also questionable. 

Houston is considered a great OVER team, but that's just not been the case this season. They went OVER the total in their opener at Golden State, but have since went UNDER in 6 straight games and it's just as much their offense not producing at the same level as it is their improved play defensively. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Heat UNDER 

The books have set the bar to high for Monday's matchup between the Timberwolves and Heat. Minnesota is coming off a huge 119-116 home win over the Thunder and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their 6 games this season. I believe that has this total number a bit higher than it should be.

It's only a matter of time before Thibodeau gets the Timberwolves playing better on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a big effort here coming off 2 days of rest. I also think we get a strong  effort here from Miami at home, as they will be trying to avoid a third straight loss. 

UNDER is 13-2 in the Wolves last 15 road games after a contest in which they covered the spread and 10-0 in their last 10 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. 

We also have a great system in play here backing a low-scoring game. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more and a game featuring a well-rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, who had a losing record the year before. Take the UNDER!

5* Steelers/Lions SNF VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers UNDER

I think we are going to see an offense struggle in Sunday's showdown between the Steelers and Lions. Detroit is going to be ready for everything Pittsburgh throws at them, as they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and you also have to factor in the fact that the Steelers offense has historically not performed well on the road under Roethlisberger. I think that trend continues here, as the Lions have the 7th ranked run defense (94.3 ypg), which should allow them to keep Bell in check and force Big Ben to beat him with his arm. 

On the other side of this, Pittsburgh might have the best defense in the league. The only two games they have allowed more than 20 points was the 23 they allowed in Chicago and 30 to the Jaguars. Note that 7 of those points in the game against the Bears came in OT and 14 of the Jacksonville's 30 were a result of two defensive touchdowns. 

UNDER is 20-9 over the last 3 seasons in games involving the Steelers with a total of 42.5 to 49 points. UNDER is also 11-3 in Pittsburgh's last 14 road games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 14 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic UNDER

The Magic have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 118 ppg early. I think that has this total a little too high for this division showdown on the road against a hungry Hornets team that is looking to bounce back from a ugly home loss to the Rockets on Friday. Even after allowing 109 at home to Houston, Charlotte is giving up just 97.7 ppg at home on the season. 

I think their defense gives Orlando trouble here, plus I think we could see a flat Magic team taking the floor, as they have won 3 straight and are fresh off a blowout win over the Spurs. Both meetings in Charlotte last year finished with fewer than 203 points and the Magic scored just 81 and 88 in the two games. 

UNDER is 30-15 in the Hornets last 45 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 17-3 in their last 20 home games against a division opponent! Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cowboys UNDER 

I think the books have set the bar too high for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. These two teams don't like each other and some consider the biggest rivalry in the league. This is also a huge game for both teams, as each comes into this one at 3-3. 

I know the Redskins just gave up 34 to Eagles last week, but the defense will be getting a big boost with the return of star corner Josh Norman. Not only is he an elite shutdown corner, who can shutdown Dez Bryant, but the entire defense feeds off his intensity. 

As for Washington's offense, I think this week could be a struggle. We already know that starting center Spencer Long and they could also be without starting left tackle Trent Williams and elite right guard Brandon Scherff. That's going to make it hard for the Cousins to get the passing game going. I think both teams will focus on the running game in this one, which should limit the possessions and keep us well below the mark. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cowboys last 19 road games and 9-1 in their last 10 on the road when they come in off a game that went OVER the total. UNDER is also 32-17 in the Redskins last 49 after 3 or more straight losses and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Afternoon Total DESTROYER on Bucks UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and Hawks. The only two teams to score more than 100 points on Milwaukee this season are the Cavaliers and Blazers, who have some big time offensive weapons. Atlanta doesn't even have one top tier player on their roster and are scoring just 98.5 ppg. The only time the Hawks have eclipsed 100 points is games against bottom feeders Dallas and Brooklyn. 

While Atlanta is struggling to put the ball in the basket, they are playing respectable on defense. Milwaukee also isn't a great offensive team, as they just don't have a lot of shooting. Bucks are only putting up 102 ppg. I think we see both offenses fail to reach the century mark in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6-1 in the Bucks last 27 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ in their previous game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in the Hawks last 32 after they allowed 100+ in their previous game and 22-9 in their last 31 after playing a non-conference game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bears OVER 

I could see some people being scared of taking the OVER here given how bad the Bears offense was last week against the Panthers. Chicago totaled just 153 yards and had a mere 5 first downs (won 17-3). The thing is, even bad offenses tend to put up some points when take the field in the superdome. The OVER is 12-3-1 in the Saints last 16 home games (2-0 this season). It's also 11-1 in the Saints last 12 games regardless of location when they are facing a team with a losing record. 

The biggest thing to keep in mind with the Bears horrific offensive showing last week, is the Panthers are an elite defense. While the Saints have been playing better on that side of the ball, the shutout they had on the Dolphins looks a lot less impressive after Miami's showing on Thursday. New Orleans still ranks 20th against the run (114.2 ypg) and 21st against the pass (236.8 ypg). 

Chicago's defense has quietly put up great numbers this year, but have struggled to play well defensively on the road. The Bears have played 3 road games and are giving up nearly 30 ppg (29.3). Last time the Saints played at home they put up 52 on Detroit and I expect another big number here to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Chargers OVER

With the UNDER cashing in 3 straight Patriots games, I think we are getting some great value here with a total less than 50. I know the results are a lot better, I just think they are a bit misleading. The defense turnaround started with a Thursday night game at Tampa, where Belichick's gameplan was perfect on the Bucs offense. They then held the Jets to 17, which doesn't say a lot. They then held the Falcons to just 7 on SNF last week. The thing is, Atlanta left at least 13 points on the board. 

I think a closer resemblance of the first 4 weeks with the Patriots defense here against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Rivers should have a big game here. He runs the leagues 8th ranked passing attack at 251.3 ypg and will be facing the league's worst ranked pass defense, which is giving up a staggering 310.3 ypg. 

As for the Patriots offense, I think they have a big game of their own. New England is 6th in scoring at 27.9 ppg and lead the league with 410.7 ypg. Brady is going to get his and the Pats should be able to pick up big chunks on the ground against the Charger's league worst run defense (140.6 ypg). 

OVER is 22-7 in the Patriots last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 14 points. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Vikings OVER

I just feel there's too much value here with the OVER in Sunday's game between the Vikings and Browns in London. More times than not, defenses have struggled to play up to their potential in these games overseas.

I have major concerns with Cleveland's stop unit, as I just can't imagine that the Browns are treating this like a business trip given they are going nowhere at 0-7. I don't think it's out of the question that Minnesota could get this total on their own. Note that Cleveland's defense has struggled playing away from home in the states. They allowed 24 to the anemic Ravens offense, 31 to the Colts and 33 to the Texans in their 3 road games. 

As bad as the Browns offense has been, I think we can get close to double-digits from them in this one. As good as Minnesota's defense has been, they have allowed at least 10 points in every game. I think they have a couple lapses here, as it will be hard for them to give Cleveland their full attention with all the distractions. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER

I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. 

Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. 

The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers OVER 

I think we get a much higher scoring game than the books are expecting on Saturday when the Mavericks host the 76ers. Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia is giving up 111.3 ppg on the road and the Mavericks are allowing 109.2 ppg at home. 

Dallas has held 3 of their 6 opponents under 100 points, but that's a bit misleading. Two of those came against the Grizzlies, who aren't a team built to score a ton and the other was against the Kings. They allowed 117 to the Hawks, 133 to the Warriors and 107 to the Rockets. The 76ers' defensive numbers are a bit skewed from one game where they held the Pistons to just 86 points. They have allowed 100+ in every other game. 

I look for both teams to eclipse the 100 point mark in this one and this one finishing closer to 220 than 205. OVER is 11-1 in the 76ers last 12 road games off a home loss and 7-3-1 in the Mavs last 11 games off a loss. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action between the Rockets and Grizzlies. Houston is a team the public looks to play the OVER on because of how great they were offensively last year, but the Rockets offense hasn't been producing like it had a season ago. The Rockets scored 122 in their opener against Golden State, but haven't scored more than 107 in each of their 4 games since. They are also playing much better on defense, giving up just 102 ppg. 

Memphis is an ideal UNDER team, as they like to play a more grind it out style, where they work for good shots on offense and lock down defensively. The Grizzlies are scoring just 100.4 ppg and giving up 95.2 ppg. 

Another key factor here is these two teams just played a little over a week ago and the game finished with 188 points. I think we see a very similar outcome in this one. UNDER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in the Grizzlies last 29 games when listed as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER ON BYU OVER 

These aren't exactly two teams most would consider taking the OVER with. BYU hasn't scored more than 24 in a game all season and San Jose State's 26 last week at Hawaii was it's most since scoring 34 in their opener against Cal Poly. 

It's not so much the offenses that I'm focused on but the defenses. This is the perfect opponent for the Cougars to take out some of that frustration on offense. The Spartans have allowed at least 27 in each of their last 6 games, 4 times allowing 40+. 

At the same time, BYU's defense has allowed 30+ two straight and 4 of their last 5. I don't see it getting any better for either of these teams down the stretch. Last time out, both teams suffered their 7th loss of the season, which pretty much wraps up any hopes of making a bowl game. I look for a bit of a shootout with this one going well past the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal UNDER

I expect a much lower-scoring game than what the books are calling for with this total. Cal is coming off a 44-45 loss to Arizona, which had a combined 99 points, but only 62 of those came in regulation. The week before they held Washington State's potent attack to just 3 points. Colorado was just shutout at Washington State and have now scored 23 or fewer in half of their games. 

I just think we have two defenses that have underachieved going up against a couple of limited offenses. Both teams are coming off a loss and still need two wins to become bowl eligible, so the intensity should be there on the defensive side. I got a little more concern with Colorado mentally, but being at home will help them. 

When Cal is coming off a high-scoring game like we have here, history struggling recommends playing the UNDER, as it's 33-18 in their last 51 after a contest that finished OVER the total set by the books. UNDER is also 16-5 in Colorado's last 21 games off a loss by more than 20 points and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some good value here with the total in Friday's non-conference matchup between the Spurs and Magic. Orlando has been an offensive juggernaut thru 4 games, averaging 119 ppg. I just don't think the talent is there for them to sustain that production and it's aided by an easy early schedule, which includes 2 games against the Nets. 

The Spurs are an elite team and off to a 4-0 start. Believe it or not they have never started 5-0 in their franchises history. Not that they need any motivation, this team shows up to work no matter who they are missing or who the opponent is. Their strong start has a lot to do with their defense, which is only giving up 93.2 ppg. I'm willing to bet the Spurs dictate the tempo here and this total stays under 200 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Stanford OVER

The books have set the bar way to low for Thursday's Pac-12 action that has Stanford visiting Oregon State. I think the public perception here is that the Cardinal are going to just go into Corvallis and have their way with the Beavers. While I think Stanford will be able to put some points on the board, I think their defense will struggle in this spot. 

Oregon State comes in just 1-6 and are ranked 113th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 21.3 ppg. That's going to make it tough on Stanford to take them seriously, especially with a road game at Washington State looming next week. The thing is the Cardinal defense isn't great, they 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th vs the pass (220.6 ypg). 

Oregon State just played their first game after Gary Anderson stepped down and the offense took on a new life against Colorado. The Beavers piled on 280 rushing yards on 46 attempts (6.1 yards/carry) and senior Darell Garretson had his best game by a long shot with 289 yards on 20 of 37 passing. That performance will have them playing with a lot of confidence tonight and I expect a number of big plays to push this final score up closer to 70. Take the OVER! 

3* Dolphins/Ravens TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins UNDER

I can see how some might be tempted to go the other way given this being such a low number, but I just think this is going to be one of those ugly games where neither team can get anything going offensively. 

I mean these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Baltimore is scoring just 18.6 ppg and are 31st in total offense at 377.5 ypg. As bad as that looks, Miami is even worse at 15.3 ppg and 32nd in total offense at 261.9 ypg. 

I know the Ravens defense has not played great the past few weeks, but this is an offense they can handle and Miami's down to backup QB Matt Moore. The Dolphins defense had a bit of a slip up last week against the Jets but overall have been really good this year and should have no problem against the anemic Ravens offense. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 road games, 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on Thursday and 6-1 in their last 6 overall. UNDER 11-5 in Ravens last 16 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 after a game in which they totaled less than 250 total yards. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under HEAVY HITTER on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the total and tonight's game between the Bulls and Hawks going over the low mark set by the books. Both of these teams are in the early stages of rebuilding their roster and are also adjusting to a lot of new pieces. No surprise that defense has been an issue for both of these teams. Chicago is giving up 107.7 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 110.0 ppg. 

Offensively both of these teams are going to be challenged when facing the top tier of the league, but they are more than capable of putting up a big number against the other bottom feeders and that's exactly what I expect to see here. Atlanta had 117 against the Mavs and 104 vs the Nets. Chicago hasn't even got a crack at bad team, having played the Raptors, Spurs and Cavs, but did just score 112 at Cleveland. 

OVER is 8-2 in Atlanta's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan OVER 

These two teams combined for 55 points a season ago and 70 the year before that. I know we have two good defensive teams, but let's not completely discount the offensive side of the ball. I think we get more than enough scoring here to push this past the small number set by the books. 

Northern Illinois' offense is coming in with a ton of confidence after putting up 48 points and more than 500 total yards last week at Bowling Green. Eastern Michigan scored just 17, but had nearly 460 yards of total offense (done in by 3 turnovers). With both defenses playing on short rest and the Huskies potentially not giving the Eagles their full attention with Toledo on deck, I think we could be closer to 60 than 50. 

OVER is 30-16 in Eastern Michigan's last 46 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 10-2 in their last 12 road games against an opponent that's outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Wednesday's late night action that has the Wizards visiting the Lakers. Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting. 

Washington's offense can get up and down the floor, but they aren't as efficient on the road. After scoring 120 against the 76ers and 115 against the Pistons at home, they managed just 109 at Denver. Not that 110 is bad, but we are talking about a total of 230+ points. Add in this being a nationally televised game on ESPN and I think the effort will be there on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. 

We got a great system in play here. UNDER is 26-6 (81%) since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more with a team that had a losing record the previous season and is playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER'  on Mavs UNDER 

The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. 

In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. 

UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR On Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the total and this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. Houston hasn't looked like the offensive juggernaut from last year and could find it hard to get going against a stingy 76ers defense that has held it's 4 opponents to just 42.8% shooting. A impressive feat given they have played the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and Pistons, with 3 of the 4 on the road. 

The other key here is that Philadelphia isn't a great offensive team. They are only shooting 42.3% from the field and scoring a mere 99.5 ppg. While the offense is still trying to finds it's rhythm, Houston's defense has played really well. They gave up 121 to the Warriors in Golden State, but have held all 3 opponents since that game to 100 or fewer. 

This has also been a very profitable spot to back the UNDER in Rockets' games. The UNDER is 14-4 in Houston's last 18 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team.

They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. 

UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves OVER

The Pacers have allowed 112 or more points in each of their first 3 games and I look for that trend to continue here against the Timberwolves, who after struggling to get going offensively against two of the better defensive teams in the Jazz and Spurs, exploded for 115 points in a win at OKC. I think we could see Minnesota go off for 120+ here, which means we just need Indiana to reach 100 points to have an excellent shot at this going over the mark set here by the books. 

Indiana will be without one of their better players in Myles Turner, but there's a lot more talent on this Pacers roster than people think. OVER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 road games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 8-2 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

Chicago was going to feature one of the worst rosters in the league when they were healthy and they are without at least 3 starters and 4 of their best players with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis all sidelined with injury or suspension. Last time out the Bulls managed just 77 points on 38% shooting and it's going to be an offensive struggle until they start getting some of those guys back. 

Cleveland isn't going to cut them any slack, as the Cavs come into this one off an embarrassing 21-point home loss to the Magic. Prior to that they held both the Celtics and Bucks under 100 points and should keep Chicago well below the century mark. Cavs are still trying to find themselves offensively and missing a key piece with point guard Derrick Rose sidelined with an ankle injury. At the same time, Cleveland could score 120 points and this could still go UNDER this high total. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Kings UNDER

This total might seem like it's way to low given the Suns have allowed 124 or more points in each of their first 3 games, twice allowing 130+. The most recent was a 88-130 defeat to the Clippers, which cost head coach Earl Watson his job just 3 games into the season. That's on the players and their lack of effort. I expect them to come out and given it all they got at home in this one. 

The Kings on the other hand are a team that has played in some really low-scoring games to start the year. They held the Rockets to 105 points in a game that had just 205 points with a total of 216.5. They then combined for 181 at Dallas with a total of 202 and 175 at Denver with a total of 212.5. Sacramento has held all 3 of their opponents under 44% shooting and now face a Suns team that has failed to score 90 in 2 of their 3 games. Key here is the Kings don't play at a frantic pace and aren't a great offensive team. Sacramento is averaging just 90.7 ppg.  Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. 

Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets OVER

Houston has went UNDER the total in each of their last two games, both games finishing with 205 or less. I think that has the total way too low for tonight's showdown against the Grizzlies. The Rockets only shot 39.8% from the field against at Sacramento on no rest after the big win at Golden State and still managed 105 points. They finished with 107 in their next game at home against the Mavs, but it would have been a lot more if the game wasn't a blowout. Houston had 92 points thru 3 quarters. 

Memphis is a good defensive team, but I don't see them being able to keep the Rockets offense in check with this game being played in Houston. Key here is the Grizzlies are in good form offensively to start the year, averaging 107.0 ppg. I think both teams easily eclipse the century mark and this one finishes closer to 225. Take the OVER! 

4* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lakers OVER

No Analysis on late releases

4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Seahawks UNDER

Don't be fooled by the Giants putting up 23 points last week against Denver. It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that got them to that mark. Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They finished the game with just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. 

I don't see them getting so fortunate with the turnovers against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, which I think is going to have this one finishing well below the mark here. While the offense will struggle to do much of anything against a Seattle stop unit that is well rested and prepared coming off a bye, their defense should be able to hold their own against a Seahawks offense that has scored fewer than 17 points in 3 of their 5 games so far this season.

Last time out Seattle was +3 in the turnover margin with the Rams and that's worth noting, as the Seahawks are 16-5 under Pete Carroll when playing on the road after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Giants last 6 at home and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Hawks OVER

The fact that Atlanta scored just 91 in their last game at Charlotte has this total lower than it should be. Brooklyn has decided that defense isn't something they are all that interested in playing and I don't see it changing here. The Nets gave up 140 at Indiana in their opener and 121 last time out at home against the Magic.

Each of their first two games have had a combined score of at least 147 points. They also let both of those teams shoot better than 50% from the field, which speaks volumes to their effort on that side of the ball. The Hawks scored 117 at Dallas in their opener and I think they easily hit that mark, which should be more than enough to push this one over the number set by the books. Take the OVER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Jags/Colts UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's AFC East matchup between the Colts and Jaguars. It's no secret the Colts aren't an explosive offensive team. Indy ranks just 28th in the NFL at 301.2 ypg. I don't see them getting it going against a good Jaguars defense. 

At the same time, I think the Colts defense will be able to hold their own here against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has no trust in Blake Bortles and are relying solely on their running game this season. It's a big reason they aren't lighting up the scoreboard. After scoring just 17 at home last week against the Rams, they have scored 20 or less 3 times this season. Their style of play also keeps the clock moving, which limits the possessions for both teams and favors a lower-scoring game. 

Division games often are also a lot more lower-scoring than you would expect. It's certainly been the case when these two face off. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in the series with a perfect 6-0 mark in Indianapolis. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH  on Bills/Bucs UNDER

The books have set the total for this one too high. Buffalo has a stingy defense and are a run-first team, which has led to the UNDER cashing in 4 of their 5 games and the lone matchup that eclipsed the total had just 42 points with a total of 40.

That defense leads the league allowing just 14.8 ppg and figures to be at it's best here with the Bills coming off a bye and facing a banged up Jameis Winston, who is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play. 

Tampa Bay's defense has struggle at times this year, but that's was more of a result of guys getting injured than the talent on the field. The Bucs are as healthy as they have been on that side of the ball and should have no problem here limiting a below-average Buffalo offense that ranks 31st in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring (17.8 ppg). Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER 

I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. 

The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. 

I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. 

OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER

This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. 

Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. 

Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under 

This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg).

All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER!

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER!