Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight between the Pistons and Magic. Both of these teams are going to be hungry for a win after a poor stretch. Detroit has lost 4 of 5, while the Magic have dropped 2 straight. Both of these teams can get after it defensively when they want. Orlando only allows 98.7 ppg and the Pistons are giving up just 97.7 ppg. 

A huge key here is that both teams will either be without their starting point guard or have them at less than 100%. Orlando's Elfrid Payton is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Sunday and keep in mind that backup C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Detroit's Reggie Jackson is also questionable with an ankle injury and he's the one guy this offense can't afford to lost. Jackson leads the team with 19.9 ppg and 6.4 apg. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Pistons last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 4-1 in their last 5 against the Southeast. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jaguars/Saints OVER

I don't think the books can set the total high enough in Saints games, especially when they are playing at home. The same could be said for Jacksonville when they are playing on the road. New Orleans is scoring 31.6 ppg at home, while allowing 32.3 ppg. The Jaguars are scoring 25.6 ppg on the road while allowing 32.3 ppg. 

With both of these teams out of the playoff picture and just simply playing out the season at this point, I don't expect either team to be all that interested in playing much defense in this one. Both of these teams feature strong passing attacks. Jacksonville ranks 12th at 256.6 ypg and the Saints lead the league at 303.2 ypg. Both will be going up against a couple of defenses that have really struggled to through the air. New Orleans ranks 30th against the pass, giving up 276.4 ypg and the Jaguars are 25th, allowing 260.5 ypg. Look for a lot of big plays and quick scores, which should have this one flying over the total. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 against a team with a losing record, 4-0-1 in their last 5 at home and a perfect 7-0 in the Jaguars last 7 road games against a team from the NFC. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cinc/San Diego St Hawaii Bowl Total Annihilator on OVER

San Diego State allowed 24 or fewer points over their 9-game conference winning streak to close out the year, but they didn't have to face Boise State and  if you watched the Mountain West you know there's a lot of bad offensive teams. The thing that stands out to me is how the Aztecs defense performed in non-conference play, allowing 35 points to Cal, 34 to South Alabama and 37 to Penn State. I think San Diego State's defensive run has created some huge value here with the OVER. 

Cincinnati comes in with the 26th ranked scoring offense (36.1 ppg) and are 4th in the country in passing at 373.1 ypg. This will be the best passing attack the Aztecs have seen since non-conference and keep in mind that the opposing quarterbacks San Diego State has played this year only averaged a 55.8% completion rate and 200 ypg. Cincinnati's quarterbacks completed 62.4% of their attempts with a strong 8.7 yards per pass attempt. I know the Bearcats will be without starting quarterback Gunner Keil, but backup Hayden Moore has played in several games and shown he's more than capable of putting up big numbers, including a 557 yard and 4 touchdown performance against Memphis. 

On the flip side of this, Cincinnati doesn't have a great defense. The Bearcats ranked 81st in total defense, allowing 414.6 ypg. They were especially bad against the run, which they finished 83rd against, giving up 190.3 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry. That's good news for the Aztecs, who come in with the 14th ranked rushing attack at 235.3 ypg. 

I look for teams to provide plenty of fireworks offensively and most importantly some quick scores with the Bearcats striking through the air and the Aztecs on the ground. Also don't be surprised if Cincinnati doesn't have a few big turnovers that result in easy scores for San Diego State. OVER is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 bowl games, 7-1 in their last 8 games in December and 11-4 in their last 15 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* GoDaddy Bowl Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

We know Bowling Green is going to put up points, as they average 43.4 ppg and have scored no fewer than 28 points in a game all season The biggest key here is whether or not Georgia Southern can run the football against the Falcons, as the Eagles offer little to no threat of a passing attack. I believe they will be able to have success on the ground and the line here backs that up. If the oddsmakers didn't think Georgia Southern was going to be able to run the ball, this line would be a lot more, as the Eagles simply wouldn't be able to score enough to keep it close. 

Bowling Green gave up 4.0 yards/carry and 162 ypg on the ground this season and they didn't exactly face the best rushing attacks in the MAC. What I like, is we have seen the Falcons give up big numbers on the ground. They allowed 399 rushing yards to Tennessee, 299 yards to Ohio, 205 to Western Michigan and 198 to Toledo. None of those teams have as strong as a rushing attack as the Eagles, who finished the year with the nation's top ranked rushing attack at 355.6 ypg. 

Keep in mind Georgia Southern put up 233 rushing yards on the road against Georgia and 413 against Western Michigan out of the MAC. When the Eagles have rushed for 250 or more yards this season, they have scored a minimum of 37 points. 

Another bonus factor here is both of these teams saw their head coach leave to take on a bigger and better job in the time leading up to this game. That only hurts the preparation and given the talent these two have on offense, I believe it will hurt the most on the play defensively. 

OVER is 30-10 (75%) since 1992 in non-conference games with a total of 63.5 to 70 where you have a team (Georgia Southern) that has been beat by the spread by 21 or more combined points in their last 3 games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* New Orleans Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fire works in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in 2015, as the Redwolves averaged 41.0 ppg on 448 ypg and the Bulldogs put up 36.7 ppg on 465 ypg. At the same time, both of these defenses struggled, especially away from home. Arkansas State allowed 33.2 ppg on the road and Louisiana Tech allowed 31.3 ppg. 

The big key here is making sure that a team like Arkansas State, from a weaker conference, can have success against the likes of Louisiana Tech. I believe they can and will. The Redwolves have been an offensive juggernaut down the stretch. They scored 50+ in each of their last 3 games and put up 40 on an Appalachian State defense that finished the year ranked 12th in the country in total defense.

While running the football is their strength, Arkansas State has a more than capable quarterback in senior Fredi Knighten, who threw for 17 touchdowns in his last 7 games. Knighten should be able to exploit a Louisiana Tech defense that finished 107th against the pass (265.8 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.2% of their attempts. 

Louisiana Tech should also have a field day offensively. The Bulldogs posted the 15th ranked passing attack in the country at 311.9 ypg and will be going up against a Arkansas State defense that finished 91st against the pass. While the Redwolves have the talent offensively to take on the Bulldogs, they don't have the talent defensively.

OVER is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 after scoring 31 or more points in 4 straight games, 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 3 straight games where 60 or more combined points were scored and 6-0 in their last 6 off 3 or more straight up wins. OVER is also 6-0 in the Redwolves last 6 against teams who allowing opponents to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts and 10-0 in their last 10 against opponents who complete 58% or more of their pass attempts. Add it up and we have a perfect 35-0 system in play on this one to eclipse the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER 

The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. 

UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams just played on Friday and I cashed in on the UNDER 204 with ease in a 94-90 win by Oklahoma City. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, there's still a ton of value on the UNDER in this one. 

Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4 at home. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last 2 and 7 of 11 overall. These two teams also have a history of low-scoring games, as each of the last 6 in the series have finished below the mark. Having just played 2 days ago against each other only adds to the likelihood of another low-scoring game, as both teams are very familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

UNDER is 11-3 in Utah's last 14 against a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Thunder's last 6 against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!  

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raiders/Broncos UNDER

These two teams combined for just 26 points back in Week 5 at Oakland and that was with the Broncos scoring 7-points on an interception returned for a touchdown. Both teams finished with less than 300 total yards off offense. I'm expecting another defensive showdown in Denver in the rematch. 

The Broncos just aren't an explosive offensive team and outside of a 17-point 4th quarter against the Patriots, they really haven't done much. They have scored just 34 points in the 11 other quarters over their last 3 games. Even if you factor in the big quarter against the Patriots, that's only 4.25 points/quarter during this stretch. It's pretty clear the Broncos want to win with their defense and I don't expect this division matchup to be any different. 

You also have to take into account that the Raiders are not playing well offensively right now. Oakland has scored 20 or less in 3 of their last 4 games and the only exception came against the Titans where they had 24. 

The Raiders gave up 34 points to the Chiefs last week, but that's a misleading number. Kansas City was gifted 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter off interceptions. Two the offense punched in from 13 yards or less and the other was taken all the way back for a score. On the game the Chiefs only had 232 yards of total offense and 15 first downs. I expect the Raiders to give everything they have defensively against a hated rival in a must-win situation. 

UNDER is 27-13 in the Raiders last 40 off a home loss by 10 or more points and 19-4 in their last 23 road games off a home loss to a division opponent. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Broncos last 6 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 in the month of December. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight between these two Central Division rivals, as both of these teams can really get after it on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 120+ points during a 3-game losing streak, the Pacers responded by allowing just 83 in a 13-point win over the Heat last night. I look for Indiana to carry over that effort on the defensive side of the ball against a Pistons team that only averages 98.4 ppg. 

Detroit has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 95 or less and are giving up just 96.2 ppg at home on the season. The Pistons will be especially motivated in this one, after losing at home to the Pacers by 12 earlier this season. Keep in mind that earlier meeting saw a combined 176 points in a 94-82 Indiana win. 

UNDER is 41-26 in the Pacers last 67 games off a home win, 24-9 in their last 33 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Pistons last 6 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take the UNDER 201! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Thunder/Jazz UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high for this matchup. Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. One of the reasons we are seeing a high total here is the Jazz have gone over in 4 of their last 5, but they come in off a game against the Knicks where they allowed just 85 points at home for a combined score of 191. 

These two teams played at Utah earlier this season and combined for 200 points and that was with the Thunder shooting a ridiculous 54.5% from the field and 40.7% from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma City also had a 40-point outburst in the 2nd quarter. The game still went UNDER the posted total of 201 and that's now 5 straight in the series and 3 in a row at Utah where they have gone UNDER the total. 

A key factor here is that we have the Thunder coming into this game playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, as they hosted the Hawks last night. It's also OKC's 3rd game in 4 nights and 5 different players played 30+ minutes last night. The Thunder aren't going to have the legs to push the pace in this one and tired legs typically leads to poorer shooting from the outside. 

UNDER is 10-0 in the Thunder's last 10 after scoring 100+ in 2 straight games and 8-0 in their last 8 after 2 straight wins. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Jazz's last 13 against a team with a winning record and 11-4 in their last 15 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Clippers TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that both teams come in having eclipsed the total in each of their last 3 games. The key thing to note is that these games have barely gone over for both teams. in the Clippers 3-0 over run two of those games only went over by 6 points or less. As for the Bulls, their last 3 games have all gone over by a combined 7.5 points and all 3 can be pinpointed to poor defensive effort in the 4th quarter, as Chicago has allowed 30, 42 and 30 in the final period of their last 3 games.

With this being a prime time game on TNT and these two teams being two of the more respected clubs in the NBA, I think we are going to get max defensive effort from both sides. I especially expect to see the Bulls get after it on that side of the ball on their home floor after losing 3 straight.

When the Bulls have hosted whats considered to be an elite opponent, it's resumed in a low scoring game. Chicago beat Cleveland at home 97-95, Oklahoma City 104-98, Indiana 96-95 and the Spurs 92-89. All 4 of which went under the total set for that game by at least 6 points.

UNDER is 8-0 this season in Bulls' games when they come in having played their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 5-1 in their last 6 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!  

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Hornets UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair between these two Southeast rivals on Wednesday as first place in the division is up for grabs. Miami is coming off a rare high-scoring game in a 103-114 loss at home to the Wizards on Monday. It was only the 4th time this season that a game involving the Heat finished over the total, as the under is 15-4 in their 19 games to this point. 

It also marked the first time that Miami eclipsed the 100-point mark in 8 games and they barely did so despite shooting a ridiculous 59.4% from the field. At the same time the Heat allowed the Wizards to shoot 50% from the field, only the 2nd time all season they have allowed a team to shoot 50% or better. The only other time was against the Kings back on 11/19 and they followed that up by allowing 91 points and 37.8% shooting in their newt game. 

Not only is this a prime spot for Miami to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, but we can also expect to see the Heat offense struggle here against a stingy Hornets defense that is allowing just 97.6 ppg and holding teams to 43.9% shooting at home. 

The last time these two teams faced off in Charlotte, they combined for a mere 154 points, which was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings at Charlotte that they combined for 185 or less. UNDER is 11-1 in Heat's last 12 after a home game where both teams scored 100+ points and 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER! 

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. 

One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. 

While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

The Pelicans and Celtics should have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. Boston comes in averaging 102.7 ppg on the season and are allowing 100.5 ppg on the road. New Orleans is scoring 110.1 ppg at home and giving up 111.7 ppg at home. 

Both teams come in having scored at least 100 points in 3 straight games and the Pelicans have allowed 100+ in 7 straight. Boston has played good defense at times, but this is not a good spot for them. The Celtics will be playing their 5th straight road game and have two huge home games on deck against the Bulls and Warriors. 

OVER is 34-16 in Boston's last 50 road games with a total set at 210 or more points and 13-1 in the Pelicans last 14 home games after scoring 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 191.5

These two teams combined for 194 points in an earlier meeting this season in Cleveland and both teams are coming off games in which the final score was more than the total listed for this matchup. This might have some looking to play the over, but I think the smart play here is to take the UNDER. 

Those that have watched Miami know that the Heat are built on defense. Miami only averages 96.3 ppg offensively, but are allowing just 92.6 ppg on the defensive side of the floor. They are holding opponents to just 41.0% shooting from the field. The Heat should be able to impose their will defensively in this one, as they catch a tired Cavaliers team playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set that saw them play an overtime game last night at New Orleans. 

Cleveland lost to the Pelicans and have no dropped 2 straight. LeBron James does not take lightly to losing and certainly doesn't want to lose against his former team and close friends. However, James played 45 minutes last night and knows that his team's only chance here is to turn this into a defensive battle, as they don't have the legs to get into a shootout. 

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 road games when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 4-1 in their last 5 when the starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes in the previous game when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 9-2 in Miami's 11 home games and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Jazz UNDER 191

The books have set the total too high for Thursday's matchup between the Magic and Jazz. A big reason for that is these two teams recently played in Orlando on 11/13 and the two combined for 195 points with a total of just 189.5. It was only the 2nd time in the last 5 meetings that these two went over the total and each of the last two games played in Utah have finished under the mark. 

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-scoring game. While the Magic are giving up 99.6 ppg on the season, they have been much better of late on that side of the ball. Orlando has held each of their last 4 opponents to 93 or less. Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are scoring just 94.5 ppg at home. The Jazz are also very good defensively, allowing just 94.0 ppg and we can expect to see Utah really get after it defensively tonight with that recent loss to the Magic fresh on their minds. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Magic's last 11 off back-to-back upset wins as an underdog and 3-1 this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is 3-0 this season after the Jazz allow 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight and 4-0 this season when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* Heat/Thunder TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

Not surprised here to see the books set a big number for the total of this nationally televised matchup between the Heat and Thunder tonight. A big reason for that is the Thunder come in averaging 108.9 ppg and have scored 100+ in 5 straight. 

As good as Oklahoma City has been offensively, Miami has been equally good defensively. The Heat come in allowing just 92.5 ppg. Clearly when this team wants to get it after it on the defensive side of the ball, they can shut teams down. I think it's safe to say that given the talent on OKC and this being a nationally televised home game, we can expect to see max effort defensively from Miami. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in Oklahoma City's 6 games this season against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 43% or worse shooting, 6-0 in their 6 games against teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls/game and 5-1 in their last 6 against teams who average 53 or more rebounds. UNDER is 9-2 in Miami's 11 games this season against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots, 8-1 in their 9 against strong free throw shooting teams, making 76% or more of their attempts (don't foul often) and 6-2 in their 8 games against teams who average 99+ points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Warriors/Hornets UNDER

The books have been forced to set the totals high in every Warriors game, as Golden State has scored at least 100 points in every game. That might have you thinking the over is the smart play in this one, but I think we could see Golden State's streak of 100+ points come to an end tonight. 

Charlotte knows that they can't afford to get into a shootout with Golden State, especially with them missing one of their top scorers in Al Jefferson. The Hornets are going to do everything in their power to slow this game down and make the Warriors work for everything they get offensively. Charlotte has been locked in defensively in their last 2 games, holding the Cavaliers to 95 and the Bucks to just 82. They come in allowing just 97.1 ppg at home and are catching the Warriors in a good spot, playing their 2nd straight on the road and first trip to the east coast this season. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Warriors last 41 off a road win and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 11-2 in the Hornets last 13 when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Ravens/Browns MNF Total No Brainer on OVER

We are seeing some exceptional value here with the total, due to the fact that these two teams struggled offensively in their last game. Baltimore managed just 16 points at home against the Rams and Cleveland scored just 9 points at Pittsburgh, which was their 3rd time in their last 4 games scoring 10 or less. 

The key here is that Cleveland's struggles offensively were a result of the team giving Jonny Manziel a shot to show what he can do. However, Manziel has been relegated to 3rd string and Josh McCown gets the start. McCown torched a bad Baltimore secondary for 457 yards on 36 of 51 passing earlier this season in a 33-30 win. I look for McCown to have another big game here against a Ravens team that doesn't have anything left to play for. 

We are also seeing a low total here due to the Ravens losing both Flacco and Forsett in last week's win against the Rams. However, Baltimore has a more than capable backup quarterback in Matt Schaub and I think people are sleeping on backup running back Javorius Allen, who had 67 yards on 22 carries against a very good St Louis front last week. Cleveland is also horrible defensively. The Browns have allowed 30+ in 3 straight games and are giving up 27.7 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 5-0 in the Ravens last 5 after allowing less than 150 yards passing, 4-0 in the Browns last 4 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 overall. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Bucks OVER

Both of these teams come into this game off extremely low-scoring games. The Bucks combined for just 169 points in a 82-87 loss at Charlotte and Denver combined for only 173 in a 81-92 loss at Dallas. The key here is that both teams had an awful offensive quarter. Milwaukee scored just 9-points in the 2nd quarter against the Hornets and the Nuggets managed just 5 points in the 3rd quarter against the Mavericks. 

I believe the results have created some great value here as too much attention is being paid to the offenses and not what these two defenses are allowing. Denver is giving up 103.7 ppg and the Bucks are even worse at 105.0 ppg. Prior to their last game, Milwaukee had seen the OVER cash in 8 straight games. I just don't see the defensive intensity being there in this matchup, as the Nuggets are playing their 3rd in 4 nights and the Bucks are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. 

OVER is 12-5 in the Nuggets last 17 when playing against a team with a losing record, 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 off a SU loss, 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on no rest and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER! 

3* Celtics/Magic NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing some great value here on the under with this total set over the 200 mark. Orlando has really played well defensively at home, where they are allowing just 94.0 ppg over their last 7. Boston also gets after it on the defensive end, as they are only giving up 96.9 ppg on the season. 

All 4 meetings last year saw a combined score of 201 or less, so these two have a history of low-scoring games. Another key here is that both team are coming in off a day of rest, so they should have plenty of energy to get back in transition.

UNDER is 22-8 in the Celtics last 30 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 32-17 in the Magic's last 49 after playing 2 straight at home. We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 36-13 (74%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread in their last game and playing 6 or more in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle on Saturday between the Hawks and Spurs. Given the scheduling scenario we have here, neither of these teams are going to be looking to push the pace offensively. 

Atlanta is an absolutely brutal spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. They also come in off a high-scoring game last night at Memphis in a 116-101 win. The Spurs are also playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. San Antonio has been really playing well defensively. They have held 4 straight opponents to 84 or less points are allowing just 84.9 ppg at home on the season. 

UNDER is 30-18 in the Spurs last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-4 in their last 15 when playing on no rest. UNDER is 9-4 in the Hawks last 13 off a win and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Nuggets OVER

We are seeing some great value here with this total, as it's been set too low based on the last 3 games for San Antonio. The Spurs combined for just 174 against Memphis, 182 against Phoenix and 171 against Dallas in their last 3. Key thing there is all 3 came at home, where they have been much better on that side of the ball. San Antonio is giving up 96.9 ppg on the road, compared to 90.5 ppg overall. 

Denver has scored at least 97 in 5 straight and allowed 109 or more in each of their last 4. The Nuggets are giving up 105.3 ppg and surrendered 109 to the Spurs in San Antonio back on 11/18. That game finished with a combined score of 207, which is a good sign we will see a similar type scoring output now that these two teams are playing in Denver. 

Each of the last 4 games in the series has seen a combined score of at least 207. We also see that the OVER is 23-12 in the Nuggets last 35 when revenging a same season loss and 13-3 in their last 16 against strong defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 43% or worse. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Clippers UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this matchup. Utah comes into this game averaging 94.6 ppg and are shooting just 43.1% from the field. Their only hope of winning games is to make them ugly and let their defense do most of the work. The Jazz are giving up just 93.8 ppg against teams who average 100.2. After allowing 100+ in each of their last 2, I look for Utah to come out extremely motivated defensively tonight. 

The Clippers are known for being a high-scoring attack, but are only averaging 103.6 ppg against teams that allow 102.0 ppg. LA put up 111 last night against the Nuggets, but in their two games prior they scored just 91 at Portland and 80 at home against the Raptors. Given the Clippers are playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall, this is not a spot where they are going to look to push the tempo. It's also worth noting they have been playing much better defensively of late. They held Toronto to just 91 points and the Nuggets to only 94. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Clippers last 41 home games against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Northwest. UNDER is also 6-0 in Utah's last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* Knicks/Heat NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both the Knicks and Heat come into this contest playing some of their best basketball of the early season. New York has won 4 straight and 6 of 8 overall, while Miami has won 5 of their last 6. I look for both teams to come out highly motivated for this game and I expect max effort here on the defensive side of the ball. 

Those that have watched the Heat play, know that this is a strong defensive team. Miami comes in allowing just 92.9 ppg (3rd). Opponents are shooting just 41.1% from the field and 30.8% from long-distance. The key here is we are catching Miami in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, so they won't be looking to push the pace. The Heat are also averaging just 97.7 ppg against teams that give up an average of 100.7. 

The Knicks are also coming into this one with tired legs. While New York had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. New York is only giving up 979 ppg against teams that average 101.6 ppg and have held their opponents to 95 or less in 6 of their last 8. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 and 8-3 in New York's last 11. UNDER is 31-19 in Miami's last 50 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. UNDER is also 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 when playing with 1 day of rest and 15-5-1 in their las t21 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Celtics/Nets UNDER

We are seeing some great value here with a high total in Sunday's showdown between the Nets and Celtics. These two teams just played Friday in Boston with the Celtics winning 120-95. The total for that game was an identical 204.5 and they eclipsed it by just 10.5 points with Boston shooting a ridiculous 58.6% from the field. 

I look for a much stronger effort from the Nets in the quick rematch. They actually only had one bad stretch against Boston on Friday, where they allowed 43 points in the 2nd quarter. Brooklyn also realizes they can't get into a track meet with the Celtics, so expect them to try and keep the tempo down in this one. 

UNDER is 20-6 in the Nets last 26 after allowing 100+ in 2 straight games and 22-9 in their last 31 off a road loss. UNDER is also 45-19 in Boston's last 64 after leading by 20 or more at the half of their previous game and 23-9 in their last 32 off a 20+ point over a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf Total of the Month on Georgia/Georgia Southern OVER

I think the books have set the total way too low for this matchup. The perception is Georgia Southern, a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference, won't be able to provide much offense against a SEC power like Georgia, who is coming off back-to-back strong defensive games where they held Kentucky to 3 points and Auburn to 13. 

The key here is that the Bulldogs aren't going to come out with the same intensity on defense against the Eagles as they would a conference opponent, especially with Georgia not really having a whole lot to play for right now at 7-3. I actually think this is a big letdown spot for the Bulldogs, as they have a huge revenge game on deck against in-state rival Georgia Tech. 

The other factor here is Georgia Southern brings a potent offense into Athens. The Eagles are averaging 37.4 ppg and have topped 43 points in 6 of their 9 games. Georgia Southern also runs an option based offense that is hard to prepare for, especially for a team like Georgia that doesn't see the option often. 

Defensively the Eagles aren't anything to write home about and Georgia's offensive line should be able to overpower them at the line of scrimmage. I look for a lot of big plays here from the Bulldogs, which will lead to quick scores. Keep in mind Georgia Southern gave up 44 points on 544 yards of total offense against West Virginia, who is not as talented offensively as Georgia. I see the Bulldogs scoring close to 40 with the Eagles in the mid to upper 20's. 

OVER is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 games after playing a game where they didn't commit a turnover and 6-0 in their last 6 after a game where they had a turnover margin of +2 or better. OVER is also 7-0 in Georgia's last 7 against the Sun Belt, 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Take the OVER! 

4* Titans/Jaguars TNF Total Annihilator on OVER

I didn't see any real value with the spread, but I do think there's some great value here with this AFC South showdown going OVER the total. The OVER is 3-1 in the Titans 4 road games this season and 6-3 in the Jaguars 9 games overall. 

Both of these teams are led by young quarterbacks who have shown flashes of being legit NFL signal callers. The key here is that both should be able to produce at a high level tonight. Jacksonville's defense isn't very good. They come in allowing 28.3 ppg and lost arguably their best defensive player for the season in last week's win against the Ravens in defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks.

The Titans have played well defensively, but this is a bad spot for them, playing on the road with a short week of rest and coming off a very physical game against the Panthers. Adding to this is the fact that the Jaguars have quietly scored at least 20 points in 5 straight games and that includes games against quality defensive teams like the Bills and Jets. 

Another factor here that favors the OVER is the fact that neither of these teams are very good at running the football, which means we shouldn't see any of those long-possessions that eat up the clock. Tennessee is 23rd in the league in rushing at 97.4 ypg and Jacksonville is 24th at 96.0 ypg. 

We should also see a fair number of turnovers in this game an as long as they don't come in the red zone (chance I'm willing to take), it should lead to some quick scores. Keep in mind with this total we only need slightly more than 10-points a quarter. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Jaguars last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 7-3 in their last 10 following a SU win. OVER is also 7-3-1 in the Titans last 11 off a double-digit loss at home, 5-2 in their last 7 on the road and 13-6 in their last 19 after scoring 14 or less in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip.

The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win. 

The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more. 

OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pistons/Lakers UNDER

I'm not expecting much fireworks offensively tonight with the Pistons and Lakers. Detroit has scored 96 or less in each of their last 3 games, while LA has scored 99 or less in 4 straight. With the Pistons having lost 3 straight and the Lakers on a 4-game slide, both should bring some intensity not the defensive end to snap their respective losing streaks.

Key here is that neither of these teams will be looking to push the tempo. Detroit is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 6th and final game of a lengthy 6-game west coast trip. The Lakers had yesterday off, but are returning home from a 5-game road trip. This will be LA's 4th game in 6 nights. 

These two teams also have a history of not lighting up the scoreboard when they face off against each other. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. We also see that the UNDER is 10-4 in Pistons last 14 against the Western Conference and 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is 8-1-1 in Lakers last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Chiefs/Broncos OVER

The perception here is this will be a low-scoring game, but I think there's going to be more than enough offense to push this past the total. The Chiefs went into their bye off two strong offensive games, scoring 23 at home against the Steelers and 45 in London against the Lions. They had 24 against Denver at home back in Week 2 and could have easily scored more if it wasn't for some poor play calling and turnovers. 

I look for the Chiefs to come out of their bye with a strong game plan here against the Broncos defense. Denver gave up 27 on the road last week to the Colts and will be missing two key pieces on the defensive side of the ball with Talib suspended and DeMarcus Ware not expected to play with a back injury. 

Denver's offense isn't putting up points like they use to, but they are still a strong offensive team. The Broncos have scored at least 23 points in 6 of their last 7 games. Denver has also scored at least 24 against the Chiefs in 6 straight meetings. Kansas City's defense has looked in their last two games, but that was against the Steelers with Jones at quarterback and the Lions, who are a complete mess. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Broncos last 20 after rushing for 50 or less yards, 26-12 in their last 38 off a loss by 3 or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a road loss. OVER is also 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 off a SU win. Take OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hawks/Celtics OVER

I'm expecting a frantic pace in tonight's game against the Hawks and Celtics. Boston comes in averaging 101.1 ppg on 87 shots per game, while Atlanta is scoring 104.4 ppg on 84 shots. The Hawks have scored at least 101 points in each of their last 5 games and the Celtics are allowing 100.6 ppg at home. 

OVER is 10-1 in the Hawks last 11 after playing 3 straight games at home and the average combined score in these games has been 209.3. OVER is also 15-5 in the Hawks last 20 road games against teams who are shooting 43% or worse from the field and 13-2 in their last 15 road games against teams that average 53 or more rebounds/game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 46-12 (79%) over the last 5 seasons in games with two up-tempo teams that average 82 or more shots/game, who both also struggle to rebound the ball (-3 to -5.5 rebounds/game). Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER

Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. 

Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor. 

One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record. 

We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Heat UNDER 

I'm expecting both teams to come out a bit sluggish on offense here and a big reason for that is the energy that I look for both teams to bring to the defensive end. Toronto will be motivated off a 87-92 loss at Orlando on Friday, which was their first loss of the season. Miami will also be looking to bounce back, as they fell 87-90 at Indiana on Friday. 

Both of these teams have really been good on the defensive end this year. The Raptors are allowing just 95.0 ppg against teams that are averaging 101.5 ppg, while the Heat are giving up only 92.8 ppg against teams that are averaging 100.6. A big reason why the UNDER is 4-2 in Toronto's 6 games and 5-1 in Miami's 6 contests. 

UNDER is 34-14 in the Heat's last 48 games against teams scoring 99 or more points/game and 9-1 in their last 10 versus teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3 or more boards per game. UNDER is also 10-2 in Miami's last 12 games played on Sunday. Take the UNDER! 

4* Temple/SMU Total No Brainer on OVER

The Owls got all kinds of media hype last week leading up to their showdown at home against Notre Dame, which was the location of Game Day. A lot of the talk was about how good their defense was and they didn't disappoint, holding the Irish to just 24 points in near upset. 

I believe that hype has resulted in a much lower total than what we should be seeing in this matchup. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Owls, going on the road with a short week of rest against a SMU team that is sitting at 1-7 with a 6-game losing streak. Temple will struggle to bring anywhere close to the intensity they had last week against Notre Dame, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I look for SMU to take advantage and put up a decent number offensively. The Mustangs are are a strong offensive team, averaging 28.7 ppg on 414 ypg. They have the 43rd ranked passing attack at 253.1 ypg and should be able to create some big plays through the air against Temple's 69th ranked passing attack (226.3 ypg). 

The big key here is that regardless if the Owls are 100% focused or not, they aren't going to have much trouble putting up points against this SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 119th against the run (259.0 ypg) and 104th against the pass (265.4 ypg). They have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last 6 games. If temple simply scores 38, we only need SMU to score 14 points to eclipse this total. 

OVER is 10-1 in Temple's last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their last game, 6-0 in SMU's last 6 off a conference home loss and 6-0 in the Mustangs last 6 after failing to cover in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pelicans UNDER

This total has been set too high for this matchup. Both the Magic and Pelicans have started the season 0-3, which is going to have both teams coming out extremely motivated to get their first win of the season. I believe that will lead to max effort here defensively and that should keep this well under the mark given the two offenses that are taking the floor. 

Orlando comes into this game averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's a bit misleading as the only time they scored more than 87 points in a game is their 136-139 double-overtime game against Oklahoma City. They only had 117 in regulation, so if you take out overtime, they are only averaging 97.0 ppg. 

The Pelicans are averaging 103.0 ppg, but they too have really only had one strong offensive outburst, as they scored 95 and 94 in their first two games, before scoring 120 against the Warriors. New Orleans is only shooting 42.7% from the field and Orlando is even worse at 40.2% and also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams at 29.3%. 

In the two meetings between these teams last year, they combined for 185 and 179 points with the highest total being 192.5. Given their current form and the injuries the Pelicans are dealing with, I look for these two to fly under the total set here. 

UNDER is 21-9 in Orlando's last 30 road games with a total greater than 200 over the last 3 seasons, 22-8 in their last 30 road games following 3 or more consecutive losses and 23-7 in their last 30 road games against an opponent from the Western Conference. UNDER is also 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 following a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the UNDER! 

5* MNF Over/Under Total Annihilator Top Play on OVER

After taking a look look at this matchup, I think the value here is with the total to go OVER. I think we are going to see both teams have some success offensively in this one. Carolina is perceived to be a poor offensive team that relies on their defense, but the Panthers have scored at least 24 points in each of their last 5 games. The Colts offense hasn't been as good as previous years, but they are trending in the right direction with at least 21 points in each of their last 3. 

Cam Newton and the Panthers offense should have no problems generating offense against a poor Colts defense that ranks 31st in the league in total defense, allowing 408.6 ypg. Indianapolis has been equally bad against the run (122.7 ypg, 22nd) as they have against the pass (285.9 ypg, 29th). Carolina owns the leagues best rushing attack (144.7 ypg), so they clearly are going to have success on the ground, which should open up some big plays in the passing game with play action. 

Luck and the Colts have shown that even if they struggle early in games, they eventually figure it out and put up some points in the 2nd half, so we are still in good shape if the Panthers get out to an early lead. Luck has also been prone to making bad throws that lead to interceptions, so don't be surprised if Carolina's offense gets some quick easy points off turnovers. 

While the Panthers actually rank higher against the pass than they do against the run, I think a lot of that has do with their schedule. They haven't exactly faced any good passing teams with their 5 games coming agains the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, Bucs, Seahawks and Eagles. Keep in mind Mallet was starting for Houston when they played and Drew Brees was sideline with an injury when they took on New Orleans. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Luck put up some big numbers here. 

OVER is 21-7 in the Colts last 28 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-8 in their last 28 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off 2 straight home losses. Take the OVER! 

3* Royals/Mets Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

These two teams have eclipsed the total in all 3 games so far in the series and I'm expecting more of the same in Game 4. The Mets will be sending out Chris Young to start on just 3 days rest, as he threw 3 innings and 53 pitches to close out the 14-inning Game 1. 

I look for Young to struggle in this spot and he clearly won't be able to go deep in the game on short short rest. The Royals also had to turn to their bullpen early last night as Ventura lasted just 3 1/3 innings. Add in the Mets coming off their best offensive showing of the postseason and clearly more comfortable at the plate at home and I think New York scores 4-5 runs in this one. 

I also think the Royals will provide some offense here. The Mets will counter with lefty Steven Matz, who hasn't been at his best in the postseason, allowing 4 runs on 10 hits and 4 walks in 9 2/3 innings. It's also worth noting that Kansas City hits lefties well and Matz has struggled against teams who don't strike out often. 

OVER is now 6-2 in the Royals last 8 playoff games and is 13-5-1 in their last 19 against a left-handed starter. OVER is also 8-3 in Mets last 11 interrelate games vs a right-handed starter. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns UNDER

The books have set this total too high for this Western Conference matchup. Both the Mavericks and Suns underwent some major changes in the offseason. Dallas doesn't look to be as strong offensively, at least in the early going, while Phoenix looks to be a little stronger defensively. 

Dallas parted ways with Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Richard Jefferson, while bringing in Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, Zaza Pachouli, Samuel Dalembert and Javale McGee. There's definitely going to be some chemistry issues early on, as Williams and Matthews barely played in the preseason and neither is 100% healthy. The Mavericks are also without Chandler Parsons, as he recovers from knee surgery and will miss the playmaking ability of Ellis until these guys get healthy. 

Phoenix added in Chandler from Dallas to help improve their interior defense and he will certainly do that. They still have a strong backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but the overall depth isn't as strong as it's been. With players not in game shape to start the season, I don't see the Suns exploding offensively here. The Mavericks also figure to slow the pace way down given what they have to work with this season and both teams should play hard defensively in the season opener. 

To close out last season the Suns saw the UNDER go 19-7-1 in their final 27 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Celtics UNDER

The defensive intensity will be there for both teams in the season opener and there's a little bit more of an edge on that side of the ball in division games. You also have to factor in there's some rust to work off early in the season, as well as players needing to get into game shape. 

Philadelphia could find it extremely difficult to score, as they are missing some key pieces because of injury. The 76ers will be without Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas and Kendall Marshall. There's a good chance this turns into a blowout and that's almost always a good sign for the under.

Boston won't be looking to run up the score with big home game against reigning Atlantic champ Toronto on Friday. The Celtics are also adjusting to a couple new pieces in David Lee and Amir Johnson. This is also a well-coached team that's going to get after it defensively. 

Over the last 3 seasons the UNDER is 41-26 in 76ers games when they are listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. They also closed out last season going UNDER the total in 11 of their last 15 division games. 

We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 112-60 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a marginal losing team from last season that won 40%-49% of their games (Celtics) playing a team who had a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

5* AFC Total of the Month on Raiders/Chargers OVER

The books have set this total way to low for this AFC West matchup, as both of these offenses should have no problem moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. Oakland comes in allowing 24.8 ppg, while the Chargers are giving up 26.8 ppg.

The key here is how both teams matchup offensively against the opposing defenses. San Diego has the leagues top-ranked passing attack at 346.3 ypg and will be going up against the Raiders 31st ranked pass defense (299.2 ypg). Oakland's stop unit is allowing opposing quarterbacks to completed 65.5% of their attempts with an average of 7.3 yards/attempt.

While the Raiders don't have great overall numbers, this is a much-improved offense in 2015. Oakland has a talented young quarterback in David Carr, who is showing some promise with his two new weapons on the outside in Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. Carr and the Raiders have the 15th ranked passing attack. While they rank just 27th in the league in rushing, Oakland has a promising young back in Murray and he should be able to exploit San Diego's 27th ranked run defense (132.5 ypg), which is giving up a staggering 5.4 yards/carry against teams that average just 4.1.

OVER is 8-1 in the Raiders last 9 after rushing for less than 100 yards in 2 straight games and Oakland head coach Del Rio has seen the OVER go 18-6 in his last 24 games as a head coach when listed as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. OVER is also 6-2 in San Diego's last 8 after allowing 350 or more total yards and 7-1-1 in the Raiders last 9 versus a team with a losing record. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Afternoon Over/Under Total Annihilator on Chargers/Packers OVER

The books have set a high total here and for good reason. I look for Green Bay and San Diego to have no problem eclipsing this mark. For starters, we have an elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers on side and top tier quarterback in Philip Rivers on the other. Both of these two know how to get their offenses into the endzone.

Green Bay hasn't put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks, scoring just 17 at San Francisco and 24 at home against the Rams, but I don't see that carrying over against the Chargers. San Diego's inability to stop the run is going to up the offense even more for Rodgers and the Packers should push 30 points at home in this one.

The key here is that I expect Rivers and Chargers to be scoring right alongside Green Bay, as I see this being a back and forth game that isn't decided until late in the 4th quarter. Green Bay's defense was extremely fortunate to only give up 10 points last week, as the Rams last 5 drives all went into Packers territory and they came away with 0 points. I look for the Chargers to be in that 27-31 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the total.

OVER is 19-4 in the Packers last 23 after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, 21-9 in their last 30 of 2 straight wins by 14 or more points, 11-2 in their last 13 off 4 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 15 points. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Oklahoma/K-State OVER

These two teams combined for 61 points in last year's 31-30 Kansas State upset win at Oklahoma. It was the 6th time in the last 7 meetings where these two teams eclipsed the total set by the books. Some of the highest scoring games during this stretch have come when the two teams play in Manhattan. The combined score of the last 3 games between these two teams at Kansas State are 72, 75 and 93. I feel like the books have set a drastically low total here due to Oklahoma only scoring 17 points last week against a Texas defense that isn't considered to be very good.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the Sooners game last week against the Longhorns is that's  huge rivalry game, so there's going to be max effort defensively, especially from the underdog. It was clear the Longhorns wanted that game more. Coming off that ugly showing offensively, Oklahoma is going to be extremely motivated to score early an often here against the Wildcats. Keep in mind the Sooners had scored at least 31 points in each of their previous 4 games and after only gaining 278 total yards against Texas are still ranked 22nd in the country in total offense at 473.0 ypg.

Kansas State looks like the perfect team for Oklahoma to get their offense back on track. The Wildcats have allowed 33 to Louisiana Tech, 36 to Oklahoma State and 52 to TCU (Horned Frogs only had 17 points at the half) in their last 3 games. Kansas State's defense ranks 110th in the country against the pass (290.6 ypg), while Oklahoma has the 14th ranked passing offense (328.8 ypg), so the Sooners will be able to play to their strength and that should lead to a lot of big plays.

I also expect the Wildcats to do their fair share of scoring in this one, whether it comes early or late when the game is out of hand (Snyder teams don't quit). Kansas State has scored at least 30 points in every game and that includes 34 on the road against a solid Oklahoma State defense. The Wildcats strength offensively is their ground attack, which is averaging 180.2 ypg. The Sooners are 91st in the country against the run (190.4 ypg), so K-States offense should be able to play to their strength as well.

OVER is 13-3 in Kansas State's last 16 games after playing in a contest where 80 or more combined points were scored, 14-2 in their last 16 after being outgained by 175+ yards and 7-2 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. OVER is also 10-3-1 in Oklahoma's last 14 conference games, 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 following a loss. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Stanford Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

Since opening the season with a 6-point effort on the road against Northwestern, the Cardinal’s offense is averaging 42.3 ppg over their last 4 contests. They have played some easy competition in 3 of those 4 games, but the 41 points they hung at USC is a strong indicator that this offense is for real.

Either way, Stanford should have no problem moving the ball here against a depleted UCLA defense that is without 3 of their best players in linebacker Myles Jack, defensive linemen Eddie Vanderdoes and corner Fabian Moreau. While the Cardinals offense ranks in the top 50 in both rushing (209.8 ypg, 27th) and passing (242.8 ypg, 49th), their success relies on their ability to get the running game going (only 85 yards rushing in loss to Northwestern). UCLA’s run defense has given up 353 yards to Arizona and 192 to Arizona State in their last 2 games. Last year the Cardinal put up 202 yards on the ground and I just don’t see the Bruins having an answer here for Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.

On the flip side of this, I think the UCLA offense is going to be able to move the ball and score their fair share of points in this one. Stanford’s defense is strong, but it’s not dominant. The only offense they have faced close to what UCLA brings to the table is USC and they gave up 427 yards and 31 points to the Trojans. They also allowed 330 yards to Northwestern, with 225 of those coming on the ground and over 300 yards to both Oregon State and Arizona. UCLA’s offense ranks 31st in the country at 454 ypg and are well balanced with 199.4 ypg on the ground (37th) and 254.6 ypg through the air (38th).

I believe the fact that UCLA has seen 4 of their 5 games go under the total and Stanford being perceived to be better defensively than they actually are, this total has been set a little lower than it should be. Both offenses are loaded with playmakers and are going to be able to keep the opposing defenses off balance with their ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. I could see both of these scoring into the 30’s with a similar type score to what we saw when Stanford played USC, which only had a total of 50.5 and the two combined for 72. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cubs/Cardinals UNDER

The intensity will be at an all-time high as these two division rivals square off in Game 1 of their NLDS series. Playoff baseball typically brings much lower-scoring games with teams only using their best starters and the bullpens being fully rested. I expect that to be the case here with the Cubs and Cardinals.

Chicago gives the ball to Jon Lester, who was much better in the 2nd half of the season and closed out the year strong, allowing just 3 runs on 8 hits with 15 strikeouts over 15 innings in his last 2 starts. Lester was also at his best on the road, where he posted a 2.93 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 12 starts. He made two starts at St Louis this season and both times allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings (just 2 hits in his most recent start at St Louis on 9/9). Cardinals offense didn't score a run in their final 3-game series against the Braves.

St Louis counters with John Lackey, who was sensational for the Cardinals in his 17 home starts, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.170 WHIP. Lackey also closed out the season strong, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Like Lester, Lackey has had plenty of success against the opposition. In 3 starts against the Cubs this season, he allowed a total of 3 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings of work.

UNDER is 14-3 in Lackey's last 17 playoff starts and 11-1-1 in Lester's last 13 starts against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* MNF Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

As good as Seattle's defense looked last week in their 26-0 win at home over the Bears, that's not really say much. Chicago was starting a backup quarterback and are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Detroit also comes in off a low-scoring game, as they lost 12-24 at home to the Broncos.

Typically the books would inflate the total in a prime time game, but I don't think that's the case here given the matchup and location of this one. I believe there's some great value here with the OVER. The Lions offense hasn't looked very good in their first 3 games, but Golden Tate has made it clear he believes opposing teams have known what the Lions were running. I look for Detroit to mix it up and start putting up some points.

One of the things I like here, is the Lions have Calvin Johnson against a strict man-to man scheme on the outside. I look for Johnson to make some big plays down the field and be a difference maker in this one. Seattle usually just hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch to wear down opposing defenses, but he's not expected to suit up with a hamstring injury. This will force Seattle to throw a little more than normal and I look for Russell Wilson to deliver a big time performance at home.

OVER is 10-3 in the Lions last 13 following a double-digit loss at home, 50-29 in Seattle's last 79 games against a team that's allowing 5.65 or more yards/play and a perfect 4-0 in the Seahawks Last 4 following a SU win. Take the OVER!

5* NL Central Game of the Month on Cubs/Brewers UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair Friday night in Milwaukee, as the Cubs send out their ace Jake Arrieta for his final tune-up before throwing in next Wednesday's Wild Card game against Pittsburgh. Arrieta has been nearly unhittable of late. He has a 0.37 ERA and 0.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in 8 consecutive starts. That run includes a start against the Brewers, where he threw a 3-hit complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts.

The key here is that I also think the Cubs offense will struggle to produce at the plate against Milwaukee's Ariel Pena, who has been effective in each of his 4 starts since joining the rotation on 9/9. While he's yet to pitch past the 5th inning, he's recorded 19 strikeouts in 20 innings and has not allowed more than 3 runs. The Cubs offense scored 10 runs in their last contest, but only 12 over their previous 6. Chicago has a bunch of free swingers that will help Pena here, especially with this being the first time he's faced the Cubs.

Under is 10-2 in Arrieta's 12 starts over the last 2 seasons when the Cubs are listed as a favorite of -150 or more, 14-3 this season when the total is listed at 7 or less and 10-1 in his last 11 against a division opponent. These combine to form a dynamite 34-6 (85%) system. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB Interleague Total of the Year on Marlins/Rays UNDER

I look for a pitchers duel in Tampa Bay tonight with two red-hot starters taking the mound in a meaningless game between the Rays and Marlins. Tampa Bay will give the ball to Matt Moore, who after a couple of rough starts has put together back-to-back solid starts. Moore's allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits with 16 strikeouts in his last two outings, spanning 13 2/3 innings. He's got ace-like stuff and is motivated to finish the year strong.

Miami will counter with Adam Conley, who is also coming off two really strong outings. Conley went on the road and allowed just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings at NY Mets on 9/16 and followed that up by allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings of a win at home over the Phillies. In the two starts, Conley has racked up and impressive 14 strikeouts.

Keep in mind the Rays are averaging just 3.7 runs/game at home and the Marlins are scoring only 3.8 runs/game on the road. While those two averages put us exactly at 7.5 runs, I expect both to go under their averages with the talent we have with these two starters.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Rays last 20 after playing 9 consecutive games against a division opponent and 12-1 in their last 13 off back-to-back road losses to a division opponent. UNDER is also 12-3-1 in the Marlins last 16 interleague games against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER!

5* Thursday Night Football Total No Brainer on UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with this inflated total for a prime time game. These two NFC East rivals have seen 4 of their last 5 meetings end with 41 or fewer points and I think we are going to see a low-scoring affair in this one. 

The Giants have managed a respectable 26 and 20 points in their first two games, but that's come against a couple of bad defenses in Dallas and Atlanta. New York only had 289 yards in their opener against the Cowboys and have not been able to get their running game going. The Giants have totaled just 99 and 97 yards on the ground. This offense is really missing Victor Cruz as they just don't have much for weapons outside of Odel Beckham right now.

With the Giants not expecting to have left tackle Ereck Flowers, I look for Washington's underrated defense to make life miserable for Manning and the New York offense. Not a lot of people realize the Redskins rank 1st in total defense after the first two weeks of the season, giving up just 234.5 ypg. A big reason for that is their pass defense, which held Ryan Tannehill to 182 yards on 22 of 34 passing and Nick Foles to 146 yards on 17 of 32 passing.

While the defense has been great, the Redskins offense has been pretty average with almost all their success coming on the ground. Washington's 379 passing yards are only ahead of the Browns, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings right now. Clearly this team wants to run the football and so far the Giants have been pretty good at stopping it. They held the Cowboys to 80 yards on 23 attempts and the Falcons to 56 on 22 carries. Even if the Redskins have some success on the ground, it's going to eat up the clock and likely lead to field goals instead of touchdowns when they get into New York territory.

I think the situation here calls for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and with this figuring to be a close game, neither team will abandon the run. I have this somewhere in the 35-38 point range with a likely score of 20-17. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Indians/Twins UNDER

I cashed in on the Indians/Twins UNDER 7.5 last night and I'm firing back with the UNDER again tonight with the total sitting at 8 runs. This is like a playoff game for these two teams, as the Twins are 1-game out of the final Wild Card spot and the Indians are just 4.5-games back. I believe these high intensity games with so much at stake creates a lot of value on the UNDER.

I also am a big fan of the starting pitching matchup for this contest. Cleveland will send out Cody Anderson, who has a dominant 1.40 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a strong 2.40 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 6 road starts this season. Minnesota will counter with Kyle Gibson, who also comes in red-hot with a 2.86 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 starts to go along with a 3.10 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 16 home starts in 2015.

UNDER is 11-2 in Indians last 13 road games when revenging a loss as a road favorite and 13-4 in their last 17 road games off a loss by 2 or less runs. UNDER is also 22-8 in Cleveland's last 30 road games after a contest where there bullpen didn't allow a run. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Indians/Twins UNDER

I think we are getting a great number here to back the under on the total in today's matchup between the Indians and Twins. Both offenses were at a stand still in Minnesota's 3-1 victory. The Indians managed just 6 hits and the Twins only had 8.

Cleveland's only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting just .240 as a team on the road, which is why I believe we are going to see a solid start here from Minnesota's Phil Hughes, who looked a lot better in his last appearance in relief against the Angels. Hughes has pitched his best at home, where he's got a strong 1.193 WHIP in 13 starts.

I certainly don't expect much offense from the Twins in this one, as Cleveland will send out their ace Corey Kluber, who enters with a sizzling 2.55 ERA and 0.962 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Most importantly, Kluber has owned Minnesota of late, throwing back-to-back complete games in his last two appearances against them. Going back over his last 5 starts against the Twins, he's pitched at least 8 innings and allowed 2 runs or less.

UNDER is 10-2 in Indians' last 12 road games revenging a loss as a road favorite and 21-8 in their last 29 road games after a contest where the bullpen didn't allow a run. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Astros/Angels UNDER

I think the books have set this total way too high for this matchup. The Angels will send out Hector Santiago, who despite a 8-9 record has posted a respectable 3.55 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 29 starts. He's faced the Astros 3 times this season and has allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits over 19 1/3 innings of work.

Houston counters with Lance McCullers, who has been straight dealing at home this season. McCullers has a 1.61 ERA and 0.964 WHIP over 9 home starts. He's also faced the Angels 3 times this season and in those 3 starts has allowed just 4 runs on 16 hits over 18 innings of work.

UNDER is 21-9 in Santiago's last 30 starts as an underdog of +100 to +150 and 19-9 in the Astros last 28 home games after playing 4 or more consecutive games at home. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Afternoon Total Annihilator on Ravens/Raiders OVER

I think there's going to be a lot more points scored in this matchup than what most think. Baltimore wasn't able to get anything going offensively in their 13-19 opening week loss at Denver. That won't be the case in Week 2 against the Raiders. Oakland allowed Cincinnati to put up 33 points and 396 yards of total offense. It would have been even worse if the Bengals didn't call off the dogs in the 2nd half.

I look for Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense to have no problem putting up a big number here. Keep in mind Baltimore ranked 12th in total offense and 8th in scoring offense last year. They simply went up against one of the best defenses in Denver on the road in their first game. Keep in mind that the Raiders lost starting safety Nate Allen and fellow starting safety Charles Woodson is doubtful. Woodson is a huge veteran presence that will be greatly missed.

The big key here is that I think Oakland will keep pace or at least keep it close enough to push this well over the mark. The Raiders have some weapons offensively and will be looking to air it out early and often, which is great for the over. They catch the Ravens defense in a great spot, as Baltimore will be playing their 2nd straight on the road and have lost the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's one of those special players that the rest of the team feeds off of and requires so much attention from opposing offenses that it opens up things for the other guys up front.

OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the Raiders last 6 home games against AFC opponents, 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 yards in their last contest and 7-3 in their last 10 after they managed 250 or less yards. Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Phillies/Braves UNDER

I really like the value here with this total sitting at 7.5 runs, as we have two of the worst offenses in baseball facing off against each other. The Phillies come in averaging just 3.5 runs and are hitting .251 as a team in road games this season. They are only hitting .190 over their last 7 games. Atlanta is scoring just 3.5 runs and hitting .251 as a team overall, plus are coming in averaging just 2.7 runs and hitting .230 over their last 7.

Adding even more value here is the starting pitching matchup. Atlanta will send out Julio Teheran, who has a 3.23 ERA and 1.099 WHIP over 15 home starts, a 1.93 ERA over his last 3 outings and a 2.41 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola. While his overall numbers aren't great, he's faced Atlanta twice this season and allowed 2 runs over 12 innings with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.

UNDER is 21-8 in Teheran's last 29 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Orioles/Rays OVER

I think we are seeing some exceptional value here on this total, as both of these offenses could cover the total here on their own. Baltimore's Chris Tillman has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts, with the opposition ending the game with 10+ runs in each of his last 3. It's also worth noting that Tillman has an ugly 7.24 ERA and 1.716 WHIP in 13 starts against division opponents this season.

Tampa Bay will counter with Matt Moore, who has not looked good since returning to the rotation. In his 8 starts, he's posted an awful 8.42 ERA and 1.926 WHIP. He's allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 4, with the opposition eclipsing 10+ runs in 2 of his last 3. In Tillman's last start against the Rays, he allowed 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings and in Moore's last start against Baltimore he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings.

OVER is 9-1 in Orioles last 10 after allowing 5+ runs in their last game, 8-2 in their last 10 during Game 1 of a series and 5-1 in their last 6 overall. OVER is also 8-2-1 in Rays last 11 against a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 against a right-handed starter. Take the OVER!

3* NFL Afternoon Over/Under Total Annihilator on Bengals/Raiders OVER

I really like the value here with this total, as I look for both of these offenses to have a lot of success. Oakland's offense should be greatly improved with Carr having a year of experience and two legit wide outs to throw to in Cooper and Crabtree.

Cincinnati's offense gets a bad rap, but Andy Dalton and A.J. Green should have a field day against a bad Oakland secondary. I also look for Jeremy Hill to have a strong game out of the backfield.

4 of the Bengals last 5 games in Week 1 have gone OVER the total. The OVER is also 6-2 in Oakland's last 8 games at home Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Brewers/Pirates UNDER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in today's NL Central matchup between the Brewers and Pirates. Both of these teams come in swinging a hot bat. The Pirates are averaging 4.6 runs and hitting .273 as a team over their last 7, while Milwaukee is red-hot with 6.4 runs and a .337 average over their last 7.

The starting pitching also favors a lot of runs. Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett has really struggled of late. He's allowed at least 5 runs and 10 hits in each of his last 3 starts, in which he's posted a 10.12 ERA and 2.187 WHIP. Good chance the struggles will continue, as he's just 2-7 with a 4.35 ERA in 12 career starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta, who has a 4.11 ERA and 1.761 WHIP over 7 road starts.

OVER is 10-1-1 in Brewers last 12 road games, and 3-0-1 in Peralta's last 4 road starts. OVER is also 15-3 in Pirates last 18 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days, 8-2 in their last 10 versus the NL Central and 8-1 in their last 9 against a right-handed starter. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Astros/A's UNDER

This one has a pitchers duel written all over it, as the A's send out their ace Sonny Gray against Houston's Scott Kazmir, who was traded from Oakland to the Astros earlier this season. Both starters are going to feel comfortable pitching at the Coliseum and I expect both to bring their best stuff.

Kazmir has a 2.50 ERA and 1.124 WHIP over 26 starts this season, while Gray has a 2.36 ERA and 1.002 WHIP over 27 starts. Kazmir's 2.50 ERA is the 4th best mark in the AL, while Gray's 2.36 ERA is second only to Houston's Dallas Keuchel.

UNDER is 10-1 in the Astros last 11 games as a underdog, 10-3 in their last 13 versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-0 in Kazmir's last 4 road starts. UNDER is also 5-0-2 in Gray's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 in his last 5 starts against the AL West. Take the UNDER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on UTEP/Arkansas OVER 49.5

While Arkansas lost star running back Jonathan Williams to a season-ending foot injury, I don't think that's going to keep the Razorbacks from putting up a big number on the Miners Saturday. Arkansas scored 73 on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 42 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB in their 4 non-conference games a year ago.

Their massive offensive line is going to create huge holes against the UTEP defense and score at will in this one. Keep in mind backup running back Alex Collins (1,100 yards 12 TDs, 5.4 ypc) as Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs, 5.6 ypc). The Razorbacks also get back senior quarterback Brandon Allen and the entire offense should feel comfortable in what will be head coach Brett Bielema's 3rd season. UTEP gave up 172 ypg and 5.2 ypc against the run last year, as well as a hefty 6.3 yards/play. They have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball and lose their leading tackler from a year ago in Wesley Miller (25 more tackles than the next best player).

UTEP's 4 non-conference games were also very high scoring in 2014, with 55 being the lowest combined output and that was against New Mexico. Not only are the Miners going to struggle to slow down a fine-tuned Arkansas offense, but they should be able to put some points on the board, whether it comes early or late. Razorbacks defense was really good a year ago, but they have just 6 starters back and have to replace 3 of their top 4 tacklers, including the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Martrell Spaight. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 45-20 type of score in this one. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pirates/Brewers UNDER

I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in Milwaukee tonight between these two NL Central rivals. The Brewers will send out one of the more underrated starters in Taylor Jungmann, who has a 2.48 ERA and 1.169 WHIP over 15 starts. Jungmann has been lights out at home, posting a 1.50 ERA in 7 starts, 6 of which have went on to finish UNDER the total. Jungmann also has a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 2 starts against Pittsburgh this season.

The Pirates will counter with veteran Francisco Liriano, who has a sensational 2.33 ERA and 1.127 WHIP over 10 road starts. Liriano allowed just 3 runs on 5 hits in 8 innings in his only start against the Brewers this season.

UNDER is 10-2-3 in Liriano's last 15 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs and 8-2-1 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. UNDER is 7-2-2 in Milwaukee's last 11 home games against a left-handed starter and 6-1 in Jungmann's 7 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Month on Rays/Orioles UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this contest. While the Rays exploded for 11 runs in route to victory yesterday, this is not a strong offensive team by any means. They only average 3.8 runs and are hitting .248 as a team on the season. I look for them to struggle here against the Orioles Kevin Gausman, who has pitched like an ace when he takes the mound at home. Gausman has a 1.85 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in 5 home starts.

Don't expect much offense here out of Baltimore either. The Orioles have completely fallen apart of late. They have lost 6 straight and 12 of 13 overall. During this stretch, they have scored 3 or less runs in all 12 losses. Tampa Bay's Erasmo Ramirez has a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 21 starts and in his last start at Baltimore he allowed just 3 hits over 7 scoreless innings.

UNDER is 7-1 in Ramirez's last 8 starts against an opponent who scored 2 runs or less in their last contest and 26-9-3 in the Rays last 38 division games. UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 12-3-1 in Gausman's last 16 starts with 4 days of rest and 6-1-1 in his last 8 against the AL East. Take the UNDER!

4* NFLX Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pats/Panthers UNDER

Today's NFL Preseason pick is on the New England Patriots/Carolina Panthers UNDER. There is no analysis with preseason NFL picks, but numerous factors are taken into account when making a selection. Full analysis will be provided on all regular season NFL games. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB Over/Under Game of the Month on Angels/Tigers UNDER

I really like the value here with this high total in today's game between the Angels and Tigers, as we have two quality starters taking the mound. Detroit will send out Justin Verlander, who has quietly started to throw like the ace of the post. Verlander has a sensational 0.45 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.92 ERA in 7 starts during night games this season. He's allowed 1 or less earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.

The Angels counter with an underrated starter of their own in Hector Santiago, who despite a 7-7 record has posted an impressive 2.99 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 24 starts. He too has thrived in night games, posting a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings in his only start against Detroit this season and has a 1.73 ERA over 6 career starts against the Tigers.

UNDER is 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts against the AL Central, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. UNDER is also 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts following a quality start last time out. Combined that's a perfect 13-0 (100%) system in favor of the UNDER!

4* NFLX Over/Under Total Annihilator on Bengals/Buccaneers UNDER

Today's NFL Preseason pick is on the Cincinnati Bengals/Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER the total. There is no analysis with preseason NFL picks, but numerous factors are taken into account when making a selection. Full analysis will be provided on all regular season NFL games. Take the UNDER!

4* NFLX Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cowboys/49ers UNDER

Today's NFL Preseason pick is on the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers UNDER the total. There is no analysis with preseason NFL picks, but numerous factors are taken into account when making a selection. Full analysis will be provided on all regular season NFL games. Take the UNDER!

4* NFLX Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

*No Analysis NFL Preseason Games*

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

This total has been set too high for tonight's matchup between the Rays and Astros. Houston will be sending out their ace Dallas Keuchel, who rarely gives up anything at home. Keuchel has a sensational 1.26 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in 13 home starts. He should have no problem shutting down a Tampa Bay offense that averages just 3.9 runs and is hitting .252 as a team on the road.

I also don't expect a lot of offense here from the Astros, as the Rays counter with the underrated Nate Karns, who has a 3.53 ERA and 1.238 WHIP over 23 starts. The key here is that Karns has been especially strong on the road, where he's got a 2.95 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 11 starts.

UNDER is 21-6 in the Rays last 27 road games revenging a one run loss and 30-16 in their last 46 road games after scoring 2 runs or less. UNDER is also a perfect 8-0 in Keuchel's last 8 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mets/Orioles UNDER

This total has been set too high for this matchup, as we have 2 strong starters taking the mound. The Mets will send out Jacob deGrom, who has a sensational 2.03 ERA and 0.893 WHIP over 22 starts. deGrom has been rock-solid on the road with a 2.70 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 10 starts away from home and enters this start with a 1.86 ERA over his last 3 outings. deGrom faced the Orioles earlier this season and held them to just 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings of a 5-1 win.

Baltimore will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has been nearly unhittable at home. In his 3 home starts in 2015, Gausman has a sensational 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP. He should have no problem keeping it going, as the Mets are only averaging 3.3 runs and hitting .237 as a team on the road this season.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Orioles last 29 after 2 or more consecutive wins, 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in Gausman's last 7 starts following a team loss in his last start. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Mets last 5 interleague games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 following an off day. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Preseason Total No Brainer on Redskins/Browns UNDER

I'm not expecting either of these teams to do a whole lot offensively. Both teams have been hit hard with some injuries to key players and that's going to have both coaching staffs coming into this one with the primary goal of not adding more names to the injury report. Look for both to keep it very simply on offense. Unless there's multiple defensive/special team scores, this game should fly under the total. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Orioles/Mariners UNDER

I really like the value here with this total sitting at 7.5 runs, as this matchup features two starters who have pitched extremely well of late. Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been up and down all season, but is in a groove at the moment. Walker has a sizzling 2.82 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

Baltimore counters with Chris Tillman, who has been lights out over his last 10 starts, posting a 2.97 ERA in those outings. Tillman has been even better since the break with a 0.38 ERA in 3 starts. Adding even more value here is the fact that Tillman has gone 9-0 with a 2.09 ERA in 13 career road starts against the AL West and is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA in 7 career starts against the Mariners.

UNDER is 26-9 in Seattle's last 35 after scoring 2 runs or less and 31-13 in their last 44 off a 1-run loss. UNDER is also 25-11-1 in Baltimore's last 37 versus the AL West and 6-0 in Tillman's last 6 starts. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cards/Reds OVER 7.5

I believe we are getting some great value here with the total set at 7.5 runs. In large part due to the starting pitching rematch of last week's 1-0 game at St Louis, where the Cardinals' John Lackey and the Reds' Anthony DeSclafani combined to allow 1 run on 5 hits in 15 innings.

The big key here is that previous game came at St Louis, which had both pitchers in their comfort zone. Lackey has a 1.89 ERA at home compared to a 4.19 ERA on the road. DeSclafani has a 2.41 ERA on the road compared to a 5.69 ERA at home. Add in the fact that both offenses will be better prepared for what they are going to see from each starter and the game being playing in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, 8 runs shouldn't be a problem.

OVER is 12-3 in the Reds last 15 home games after scoring 2 runs or less and 11-2 in their last 13 as a home dog of +100 to +125. OVER is also 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 road starts against a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 road starts when listed as a favorite. Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rays/Red Sox UNDER

Today's pitching matchup of Tampa Bay's Erasmo Ramirez and Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez might not seem like a candidate for a pitchers duel, but I think there's some big time value here here with this high total.

Erasmo has a 3.18 ERA and 1.071 WHIP over 15 starts and a dominant 0.889 WHIP over his last 3. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn't have great numbers overall, but is coming off a strong showing at home against Detroit, where he allowed 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings. In his 11 starts this season, Rodriguez has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of them.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Rays last 17 road games with a total set at 8 to 8.5 runs, 22-9 in their last 31 road games after going under the total in their previous game and 10-2 in their last 12 road games with a bullpen ERA of less than 2.00 in their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Angels/Astros UNDER

This is a great total to back the UNDER in today's matchup between the Angels and Astros. Houston's Lance McCullers has a sensational 1.54 ERA and 1.029 WHIP over 6 home starts, while Los Angeles' Garrett Richards comes in with a 2.82 ERA and 1.030 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Both pitchers also have a strong history against the opposition. Richards has a 3.51 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Astros, allowing just 1 run on 1 hit with 10 strikeouts in his last appearance against them. McCullers on the other hand has a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his lone start against the Angels.

UNDER is 12-3-2 in Richard's last 17 starts when facing an opponent that scored 5+ runs in their previous game and 5-1 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Astros last 10 versus a right-handed starter and 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Tigers/Rays UNDER

It's still up in the air whether the Tigers will trade away David Price, but regardless if they do, Price knows he could be auditioning for a serious contender when he takes the mound tonight.

Not to mention, Price has a 1.90 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 10 road starts and a 1.17 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Not only do I see the Rays struggling to score here, but the Tigers don't figure to get much offense going. Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi has a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 6 home starts. 

UNDER is 12-3 in Odorizzi's 15 starts this season and 10-1 in his last 11 when he starts at night. UNDER is also 23-9 in the Rays last 32 with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less over their last 15 games and 5-0 in Price's last 5 road starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Marlins/Diamondbacks UNDER

While the game is being played at hitter-friendly Chase Field, I think it actually creates some value here as the total comes in at 7.5 when it should be 7 or even 6.5. Neither offense figures to get much of anything going with today's starting pitching matchup.

Arizona will send out Robbie Ray, who despite a 3-4 record has a dominant 2.29 ERA and 1.073 WHIP over 9 starts. Miami counters with their ace Jose Fernandez, who has been better than expected in his first 3 starts back from Tommy John surgery. Fernandez has pitched into the 6th inning of all 3 starts and has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP, allowing just 5 runs on 17 hits in 19 innings of work.

UNDER is 7-2 in Fernandez's last 9 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs and 7-3 in his last 10 versus a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Ray's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the UNDER!

5* NL East Total of the Month on Mets/Nats UNDER

Don't expect to see much offense in this one. The Nationals are coming off two straight games against Kershaw and Greinke, where they totaled 2 runs and were shutout yesterday. The Mets on the other hand just played an 18-inning marathon game against the Cardinals and are one of the least productive offenses in baseball.

The Nationals will send out Gio Gonzalez, who was lights out going into the break, posting a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Gonzalez has also been dominant at home, where he's posted a 2.44 ERA and 1.196 WHIP over 7 starts. New York will counter with their ace Matt Harvey, who was sharp in his last start before the break and figures to be at his best here with a healthy 8-days of rest.

UNDER is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 against a left-handed starter, 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 in Harvey's last 5 starts overall. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Nationals last 8 home games against a right-handed starter, 5-1 in their last 6 following a loss and 4-0 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the UNDER!

3* Early Bird MLB Total Annihilator on Dodgers/Nationals UNDER

This one shouldn't need much explanation, as we have two of the best pitchers in baseball squaring off in this one. The Dodgers send out Zach Greinke, while the Nationals counter with Max Scherzer.

Greinke went into the break with a perfect 0.00 ERA to go with a 0.441 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a 1.28 ERA in 7 road starts and a 0.00 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in 3 day starts. Scherzer has a 2.83 ERA and 0.802 WHIP over 8 home starts and 1.66 ERA and 0.662 WHIP in 7 day starts.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Dodgers' last 13 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 6-1 in Greinke's last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 8-1-1 in Nationals last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-3-1 in their last 16 as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cubs/Braves UNDER

The Cubs and Braves combined for just 6 runs in yesterday's series opener and I look for another low-scoring affair in game 2. Chicago will send out their ace Jon Lester, who has a solid 3.50 ERA over his last 10 starts. Most importantly here is the Braves have really struggled to hit left-handed starters. Atlanta is averaging just 2.9 runs and hitting .219 as a team in their 17 games this season against a southpaw starter.

Another key factor here is the Cubs have struggled to do much of anything offensively when Lester takes the mound. Chicago has scored a mere 8 runs during his last 10 starts, giving him the lowest run-support in baseball during this stretch. That trend figures to continue against Atlanta's Manny Banuelos, who has allowed just 1 run on 7 hits in 11 innings over his first 2 big league starts.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cubs last 11 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs and 6-0 in Lester's last 6 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. UNDER is also 5-0 in Braves last 5 versus a left-handed starter and 9-2 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Afternoon Total Annihilator on Braves/Rockies OVER

I look for these two teams to have no problem eclipsing this total, as we have two struggling starters taking the mound against a couple of hot offenses in the thin air of Coors Field. Braves are hitting .279 with a .332 OBP over their last 7, while the Rockies are hitting .305 with a .347 OBP in their last 7.

The big key here is the pitching matchup. Atlanta's Matt Wisler has allowed 9 runs on 16 hits in his two road starts and will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has pitched well of late, but has a 6.81 ERA and 1.800 WHIP over 8 home starts. OVER is 11-2 in Braves 13 games played on Saturday this season and 14-3 in Rockies last 17 after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Games with a total of 10 or more that feature a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 to 4.50 (Rockies) are 36-11 when playing on Saturday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% 5-year system. Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nats/Orioles UNDER

This might seem like a fair total given the starting pitching matchup for this one, but neither of these offenses are swinging the bat well right now. Washington is scoring just 2.6 runs and hitting .182 as a team over their last 7 games and Baltimore isn't much better. The Orioles are scoring 2.7 and hitting .199 as a team over their last 7.

While the overall numbers aren't great for starters Gio Gonzalez and Chris Tillman, but have pitched well of late. Gonzalez has allowed just 1 run over his last 2 starts and Tillman has only given up 2 in his last 2.

UNDER is 6-1 in the Nationals last 7 after an off day, 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs, 10-3-1 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 home games and 15-5-1 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Early Bird Total Annihilator on Orioles/Twins UNDER 8

These two teams combined for 11 runs on Tuesday, which I believe has caused the books to inflate this total for the series finale. I don't expect either offense to have much success in this one.

Baltimore will send out the resurgent Ubaldo Jimenez, who comes in with a 2.96 ERA and 1.219 WHIP over 16 starts. Jimenez has given up 3 earned runs or less in 14 of those 16 starts and has a sensational 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts. Minnesota counters with Tom Milone, who since rejoining the rotation in June has been throwing like an ace. Milone has a 1.95 ERA over 6 starts during this stretch. Adding more value is the fact that Jimenez has a 2.45 ERA over 7 career starts against the Twins and Milone has a 1.89 ERA over 3 career starts against the Orioles.

UNDER is 20-8 in Baltimore's last 28 after a loss by 4 or more runs , 20-7 in their last 27 road games against the AL Central and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when they come in with a .240 or worse average over their last 10 games. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Late Night Total Annihilator on Mets/Giants OVER

While these aren't two of the best offenses, I think there's a ton of value here with the OVER, especially given the starting pitching matchup that we have going. The Mets will send out Bartolo Colon against the Giants' Matt Cain.

Colon pitched well in his last start at home against the Cubs, but prior to that had allowed 11 runs on 19 hits in his previous 2 starts. Colon also has a 5.02 ERA and 1.256 WHIP over 7 road starts and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits in 4 2/3 in his last start against the Giants.

Cain made his first start in almost a year last Thursday at Miami and was tagged for 5 runs on 7 hits with 4 walks over just 5 innings of work. Cain will more than likely continue to struggle for a few more starts, as he works to get back into a rhythm on the mound.

OVER is 19-9 in Colon's last 28 starts after allowing 1 or less runs in his last outing, 16-7 in his last 23 after a win and 6-1 in his last 7 against the NL West. OVER is 7-1 in Giants last 8 versus a right-handed starter 11-4 in their last 15 against the NL East and 4-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

5* Pirates/Indians MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

This is a great spot to back the UNDER in today's matchup between the Indians and Pirates. Cleveland's Cody Anderson has been sensational in his first two starts, allowing just 1 run on 8 hits in 15 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh will counter with Jeff Locke, who has a solid 3.04 ERA in 9 home starts and a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 outings. 

The UNDER is 16-6 in Cleveland's last 22 road games after going under the total in their previous game and 10-2 in their last 12 road games with a hot bullpen that comes in with a WHIP under 1.000 in their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rays/Yankees UNDER 7

It's been a couple of really rough starts for Yankees' ace Masahiro Tanaka in his last two outings, which I believe is playing into a favorable total here in Friday's showdown between the Rays. Tampa Bay will be sending out their ace in Chris Archer and anyone who has been following him, knows he's been dominant on the road. Archer has a ridiculous 1.76 ERA and 0.935 WHIP over 7 road starts.

One of the big things that I really like here is that both Tanaka and Archer have dominated the opposition in recent meetings. Tanaka has a 1.93 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two starts against the Rays and Archer has a 2.02 ERA and 0.816 WHIP over 7 career starts against the Yankees.

Adding even more value here is the fact that both of these offenses are in a funk right now. The Yankees have scored a total of 6 runs in their last 4 games and the Rays have managed just 7 in their last 4. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pirates/Tigers OVER

Both the Pirates and Tigers are swinging the bats extremely well right now. Pittsburgh has pounded out a ridiculous 36 hits in their last two games, while Detroit has had 28 in their last 2. Each of the first two games have flew over the total, as they combined for 9 runs on Tuesday and 12 more on Wednesday. I don't see either offense slowing down in the series finale.

The Pirates will send out Francisco Liriano, who has a solid 3.21 ERA and 1.007 WHIP over 15 starts, but he's had his troubles against the better lineups like he will see today with Detroit. Liriano also has a 4.50 ERA in 3 interleague starts.

The Tigers will counter with Kyle Ryan and given his recent form it wouldn't come as a surprise if Pittsburgh eclipsed this total on their own. Ryan has a 4.76 ERA in 3 starts and was hit hard in his lone start at home (4 runs in 6 1/3 innings). Take the OVER!

5* AL Total of the Month on Royals/A's UNDER

I think we are seeing an inflated total here based on the fact that both of these teams have seen the over profit quite a bit of late. The OVER is 7-2-2 in KC's last 11 and 7-3-2 in the A's last 12. Not very often you get this good of a pitching matchup with this high of a total at pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum.

Keep in mind that in the last 7 meetings at Oakland the UNDER is 5-1-1. Royals will send out Chris Young, who has a 3.14 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over 9 starts overall and a dominant 1.42 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in 4 road starts. Oakland's Scott Kazmir has a 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 14 starts, but improves to a 1.27 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 7 home starts.

UNDER is 34-16-3 in the Royals last 53 games as a road dog of +110 to +150 and 12-3 in Young's last 15 starts when his team is listed as an underdog of +125 to +175. UNDER is also 10-2 in the A's last 12 after allowing 5+ runs and 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games as a favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Early Bird Total Annihilator on White Sox/Tigers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the under at 8.5. Chicago's Carlos Rodon has got superstar potential and it's only a matter of time before he's a top level pitcher. He's got a 3.89 ERA over 8 starts and if he can get his control in line he's going to be dominant.

I think he's more than capable of shutting down this strong Tigers offense. I'm also not expecting a whole out of the White Sox' hitters. Detroit's Alfredo Simon has a 1.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 6 home starts and a 2.77 ERA over 2 career starts against the White Sox.

UNDER is 13-4 in Detroit's 17 home games with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs and 10-2 in their last 12 home games after going over the total in their last game. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in Chicago's last 6 following a loss and 20-8-2 in their last 30 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on A's/Rangers UNDER

The total here has been set way too high, creating some big time value on the under. The A's Jesse Chavez and the Rangers' Chi Chi Gonzalez might not scream elite starters, but both have been throwing like aces of late.

Chavez has a 2.75 ERA and 1.111 WHIP over 11 starts (under is 7-3-1), while Gonzalez has a ridiculous 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 4 starts (under is 4-0). Gonzalez held the A"s to just 1 run over 7 innings back on 6/11.

UNDER is 12-1 in the Rangers last 13 after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less and 10-0 in their last 10 off a 1 run loss. UNDER is also 13-2-1 in A's last 15 with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs and 4-0 in Chavez's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Brewers/Rockies OVER

This might seem like a high total even at Coors Field given how bad the Brewers have been offensively in 2015, but I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fireworks from both teams.

Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann has an impressive 2.25 ERA, but he's only made two starts. He was sharp in his debut at Pittsburgh, but really labored through 5 innings at home against the Nationals. I just think Jungmann is going to struggle here in his first start in the thin air of Coors Field.

On the other side of this, Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has an awful 6.99 ERA and 1.694 WHIP over 6 home starts and a 7.92 ERA and 1.761 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Brewers. OVER is 32-16 in Rockies last 48 home games after 2 or more losses and 10-2 in the Brewers last 12 against the NL West. Take the OVER!