Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER

I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Mavs UNDER

The fact that offenses are scoring at a ridiculous pace this season has forced oddsmakers to adjust the totals big time and I believe it creates some decent value when you get two teams like the Mavericks and Heat that aren't all that great offensively and still bring it on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas has especially been grinding games out of late. The Mavs have failed to eclipse 100 points in 4 straight and allowed 100 or less in their last 3.

Miami's offense has been playing well during their huge 2nd half surge, but I don't see them putting up a big number here on the road against this Mavs team. Not only will the Heat not being scoring as much as normal, they should be able to lockdown defensively on Dallas, who is scoring just 96.2 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Hawks/Magic OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight between the Hawks and Magic. Orlando traded away one of their best defensive players in Ibaka and were not good defensively to start with. The Magic come in having allowed 107 or more points in 7 straight games. They allowed the Blazers to shoot 50.6% from the field in their first game back from the break.

Atlanta only managed 90 points in their first game back last night at home against the Heat, but that came without starting point guard Dennis Schroder, who was serving a suspension. Atlanta has scored at least 110 points in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Hawks haven't been playing great defense of late and I think Orlando does enough at home to push this well over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Suns/Bulls OVER

I'm not expecting a lot of defense to be on display when the Bulls host he Suns tonight. Chicago just traded away one of their better defensive players in Taj Gibson. That move also means the pulls are going to play more of a smaller lineup with a stretch 4 like Mirotic. That should help generate more offense, but will hurt the Bulls defensively and Phoenix is a team that can put the ball in the basket. The Suns come in averaging 106.9 ppg and don't have hardly any dropoff on the road (106.2 ppg).

Phoenix doesn't play defense, as they come in allowing 113.3 ppg on the road. They also just traded away one of their best defensive players in P.J. Tucker. The Suns final 4 games before the break all had a combined score of at least 212 points. That included a 115-97 win over the Bulls at home. That's the only time Phoenix has held an opponent under 100 points in their last 20 games. OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams that allow opponents to shoot 46 or better from the field. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Wolves OVER

The books have set the bar too low for tonight's total between the Mavericks and Timberwolves. Minnesota is a team that likes to push the pace offensively and while their head coach preaches defense, they don't play a ton of it. The Timberwolves scored 106 or more points in 6 straight before the break and have allowed 100+ points in 14 of their last 16 games. Dallas isn't known for being an offensive team, but I believe they are trending in that direction with the move to release Deron Williams and give the point guard job to Yogi Ferrell.

I'm not expecting this to be in the 220's but I feel this number is way to low given that the average combined score in Minnesota home games is 210.7. OvER is 5-1 in the Mavs last 6 against the west and 20-7 in their last 27 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. OVER is also 5-0 in the T-Wolves last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers/Magic OVER

I really like the value we are getting here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Magic. I have this one easily eclipsing the 220 mark and potentially getting to 230. I just don't see either of these teams being all that motivated to play defense coming out of the break, especially given how disappointing a season it's been for both of these teams.

On top of that, defense has been a major problem for both teams, as each ranks in the bottom 8 in defensive efficiency. Not to mention both teams have had some big moving pieces in trades. OVER is 11-2 in the Magic's last 13 home games against a team from the Northwest division and 11-3 in the Blazers last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Providence/Creighton OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set by the books tonight. These played earlier this season at Providence and combined for 142 with the Friars shooting just 39% from the field and 16% from long-distance. Creighton likes to push the pace and will be able to do so at home, where they are averaging 85.5 ppg. The Bluejays allow 73.2 ppg on the road and Providence comes in having scored 70+ in 3 straight.

OVER is 10-2 in the Friars last 12 games off 2 or more home wins and 21-7 in their last 28 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. OVER is also 20-9 in Creighton's last 29 games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Syracuse/Georgia Tech UNDER

I think the books have set the total too high here. The UNDER has gone 8-3 in Georgia Tech home games and is 5-1 in their 6 conference home games. It's because the style of play that the Yellow Jackets play. They are a limited offensive team, so they have to slow the pace down and rely on their defense to be competitive. They are doing just that, scoring only 67.8 ppg and allowing just 61.1 ppg at home. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Yellow Jackets last 17 home games when playing their 2nd game in a week, 15-4 in their last 19 home games off a conference loss and 11-2 in their last 13 home games as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia/North Carolina OVER

I think the books have set the total way too low for tonight's big ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia. The Cavaliers are known for being a dominant defensive team, but they don't often go up against an offensive like the Tar Heels. North Carolina is averaging 90.6 ppg at home. Virginia is more than capable of keeping pace and their defense isn't near as strong on the road as it is at home.

OVER is 16-4 in the Tar Heels last 20 home games with a total of 130 to 139.5, 14-5 in their last 19 after scoring75 or more in 4 straight games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 against elite defensive teams that are allowing 57 or less points/game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Rockets OVER

I look for a lot of offensive fireworks tonight when the Rockets host the Heat. These two recently played in Miami, with the Heat winning 109-103. Houston shot just 40% from the floor and the two teams still managed to combine for 212 points. Considering the Rockets are on 3-days rest and averaging 116.0 ppg at home this season, I think these two will have no problem making up the difference to push this over the mark. Miami has scored 105 or more points in 7 straight games.

OVER is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and a perfect 4-0 in Houston's last 4 when playing on 3 or more days rest. OVER is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Houston. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Magic UNDER

I think the books have set the total too high for this one. San Antonio is playing on fumes right now, as this will be their 6th straight on the road, all of which coming since 2/6. I just don't see the Spurs looking to push the pace here. Their only focus is getting a win going into the All-Star break.

With Orlando likely playing short-handed, I look for the Spurs to try and put this game away early. Their defense should be able to make life miserable for the Magic. San Antonio has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and Orland is only averaging 97.7 ppg at home. UNDER is 23-8 in the Spurs last 31 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bulls OVER

There's a lot of moving parts going on around this game, as the Raptors just made a trade for Serge Ibaka and the Bulls are expected to be without starters Wade and Butler, as well as reserves Mirotic and Zipser. All of this has this game feeling a bit like an exhibition game and I just don't see either team playing much defense in this one.

Chicago certainly hasn't been playing any of late. The Bulls have allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games and given up 115 or more in each of their last 3. Given what Chicago has to work with and the Raptors ability to light it up offensively (109.1 ppg), I think Toronto is going to continue that streak. Not having Butler and Wade might seem like a huge loss for Chicago's offense, but it allows them to play at a little faster pace and gets some more 3-point shooters on the floor. You also have to take into consideration that Toronto will have a difficult time taking the Bulls seriously without their star players, so it's unlikely they are coming into this one looking to lock down defensively. OVER is 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Magic/Heat OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Miami when the Heat host the Magic tonight. Miami had their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. It's exactly difficult to keep the momentum going from a long winning streak after it's snapped. On top of that, the Heat are returning home from a 4-game road trip. I just don't see the effort being their on the defensive side of the ball, especially against a bad team like the Magic.

Offensively the Heat should be able to continue to their recent surge. Miami has scored 100+ points in 12 straight games and are facing a Orlando defense that has allowed 112 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 109 ppg on the road this season. OVER is 8-1 in the Magic's last 9 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-4 in their last 16 after giving up 60+ points at the half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Louisville/Syracuse UNDER

I like the value here on the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. These two teams are both capable of shutting down the opposition with their defense. Louisville comes in allowing just 63.7 ppg on the road and the Orange are giving up only 64.1 ppg at home. I know both offenses average over 75+ ppg, but these two have a history of low-scoring games when they meet up at Syracuse. In fact, 5 of the last 6 the Orange have hosted in the series have gone UNDER the total.

UNDER is 8-2 in Louisville's last 10 games when playing in one of these rare Monday matchups and 9-3 in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 20-6-3 in Syracuse's last 29 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 40-18-1 in their last 59 games on Monday. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Oregon/USC UNDER

I really like the value here with this one going under the total set by the books. These two teams played at Oregon back in late December and combined for fewer than the total here. That was with the Ducks putting up 84 points at home. I just don't see that same kind of offensive outburst here for Oregon, who is primed for a letdown after playing their last two against the league's two best teams in Arizona and UCLA. Even more so with just 1-day of rest after blowing a big lead against the Bruins.

USC comes in having won 5 straight and I expect them to really get after it defensively here. Not only to get a huge win at home, but to get revenge from that ugly 23-point loss to the Ducks in December. UNDER 15-5 in Oregon's last 20 games when playing for 2nd time in just a 3 day span. UNDER is also 11-2 this season after a game where the Ducks covered the spread and 4-0 in USC last 5 games as a home underdog. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total Dominator on Oklahoma/Iowa St OVER

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game this afternoon between the Cyclones and Sooners. These two teams played already this season and combined for 179. I know that came in OT, but the flow of the game was exactly what we look for when backing the over. Keep in mind that neither team shot the ball well and they still put up a ton of points. ISU was only 42.7% from the field and Oklahoma was a mere 40.3% from the field. It was also the 4th straight meeting in the series that saw at least 155 points.

I don't normally pay a ton of attention to the day of the week when it comes to trends, but this one is hard to ignore. OVER is 7-1 in the Sooners last 8 games played on Saturday and a perfect 6-0 in the Cyclones last 6 games on Saturday. OVER is also 4-0 in Oklahoma's last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in ISU's last 6 off a SU loss. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Bucks OVER

I think this total is a good 10-points lower than what it should be. The Heat are playing at a different level right now than they were just a few weeks ago. Miami only averages 100.7 ppg on the season, but have scored 100 or more in 9 straight games, eclipsing 115 points in each of their last 3. That trend doesn't figure to come to an end against a Bucks team that has allowed 100+ in 17 straight games and is mixing up the rotation with three new faces tonight.

While Miami figures to have no problem surpassing the 100-point mark, I think the Bucks could really light up the scoreboard here. The Heat are not the same team defensively on the road and the Bucks are locked in offensively right now. After putting up 117 at Denver, the hung 137 on the Suns the next night. These two played in Miami on 1/13 and combined for 224 points and I think we will see a similar type of output tonight. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for tonight's showdown between the Rockets and Magic. On one side you have one the most dynamic and efficient offenses in the league in the Rockets and on the other you have one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Magic, Houston is averaging 114.8 ppg at home and the Magic are giving up 108.2 ppg on the road. The Rockets should score close to 120-125 on their own, which means we just need an average offense night from the Magic to push this over the total.

I believe we will get at least that from Orlando and maybe some more. Given how bad the Magic have been this year and are playing at the moment, this isn't a game where the Rockets are going to choose to use up a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball. OVER is 6-2 in the Rockets last 8 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Knicks OVER

These two teams played back in December and combined for 230 points in a 118-112 Knicks win. I think we are going to see a similar scoring output here. Both of these teams have the ability to put up a lot of points and each rank in the top half of the league in pace. Each also come into this game in good form. Lakers have scored at least 107 in each of their last 3 and the Knicks are averaging 109.8 ppg over their last 5.

The big key here is that neither of these teams play much defense. In fact, both rank in the bottom 7 of the league in defensive efficiency. Lakers have allowed 113 or more in each of their last 3 games and the Knicks have allowed 100+ in 11 of their last 12. Add in this being a game played on Monday, where players just aren't always locked in and I think there's going to be zero defense played in this one. OVER is 13-4 in the Lakers last 17 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Cavs/Wizards UNDER

I really like the value here with the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. This is a big time game. Cleveland is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and the Wizards are playing as well as anyone right now. Washington is 14-2 over their last 16 and have won 17 straight at home. The Cavs are well aware of this and I expect them to try a send a massage to the Wizards, especially with this being a nationally televised prime time game on TNT.

The defensive numbers for Cleveland aren't great, but this is a team that can get after it on that side of the ball when they want to. They also have been playing much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing just 99.0 ppg over their last 4. Washington's defense has also been solid of late, giving up just 96.0 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 as a road dog. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Notre Dame/UNC UNDER

I think the value here is with the UNDER on the total. This game was suppose to take place yesterday on North Carolina's home floor, but had to be moved and is now being played 50 miles out to the Greensboro Coliseum. The quick change in venue is big, as it keeps the Tar Heels off their home court and will likely have a negative impact on the scoring output of both teams. This is also a big time game and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity here. Notre Dame is only giving up 68.1 ppg and the Tar Heels aren't too far behind at 71.4 ppg.

North Carolina wants to protect their home court and are catching the Irish at the right time, as they have lost 3 straight. On the flip side of this, Notre Dame will come out and lay it all on the line here to not only snap the losing streak, but to get some revenge from losing to UNC in the East Regional Final of last year's NCAA Tournament. UNDER is 8-2 in the Tar Heels last 10 when playing a team that's won between 60% to 80% of their games and 12-3 in the Irish's last 15 off a conference loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pistons/Pacers UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the total for tonight's game between the Pistons and Pacers. Both teams are coming off a win last night where they scored 100+ points. The thing is, the offense figures to be down a notch for both sides playing on no rest, and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights. On top of that, we have two division rivals, who are both playing well at the moment and desperately want a win here.

UNDER is 31-17 in the Pistons last 48 road games after playing their previous game against a team from the western conference. UNDER is also 29-9 in the Pacers last 38 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 20-9 in their last 29 at home after a game where they covered the spread. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAB SEC Total of the Year on Arkansas/Missouri OVER

Get ready for a shootout in Missouri this afternoon when the Tigers host the Razorbacks. These two teams played back on 1/14 in Arkansas and combined for 165 points in a 92-73 win by the Razorbacks. That was the fourth straight meeting between these two schools where they combined for at least 150 points and I don't see that trend coming to an end here.

Both of these teams are struggling to stop their opponents. Arkansas is allowing 77.4 ppg in conference play and the Tigers are giving up 79.6 ppg. I expect another strong showing offensively from the Razorbacks against this Missouri defense and for the Tigers to provide a little more punch offensively playing at home this time around.

OVER is 19-9 in Missouri's last 28 when revenging a loss and 9-1 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. OVER is also a perfect 6-0 this season in Tigers' games against an opponent that is shooting 45% or better from the field. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Mavs/Blazers OVER

I believe the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Blazers and Mavericks. A big reason for the small total is the fact that the Mavericks are one of the worst offensive teams statistically at just 97.4 ppg. However, those numbers don't reflect how Dallas is playing right now. The Mavs are averaging 104.6 ppg over their last 5 and fresh off a 113-pt outburst against the 76ers.

Portland is a dynamic offensive team that comes in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and is even better than that right now, putting up 114.0 ppg over their last 5. Defense has been the problem for the Blazers, as they are allowing 110.0 ppg. I see both teams easily eclipsing the 100-point mark and see this one finishing around the 215-210 range. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Hornets/Blazers OVER

I think we are getting some great value on the total going over the mark in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. Portland likes to get up and down the floor and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, where they are averaging 108.9 ppg and allowing 107.8 ppg. I don't see Charlotte having any problem playing at the Blazers pace, as the Hornets come in off 2 days of rest and are putting up 104.8 ppg on the road this season. Charlotte's defensive woes are a big reason they are 23-25 and they come in allowing 106.0 ppg on the road. I see both teams easily getting past the 100-point mark and believe it will end up somewhere in the 220's.

OVER is 22-8 in the Hornets last 30 road games after playing their previous game at home, 14-6 in the Blazers last 20 after going under the total in their last game and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

This might seem like a high total for tonight's matchup between the Kings and Rockets, but I don't see either team putting forth much effort on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Sacramento is playing on no rest, their 4th game in 5 nights and 8th straight on the road in a 12-day span. While the Rockets had yesterday off, they are dealing with jetlag after just returning home from a 5-game east coast trip.

On top of that, these two teams aren't exactly known for their defense and each is giving up a lot here of late. In fact, the Kings are allowing 111.8 ppg over their last 5 and the Rockets are allowing 116.0 ppg. At the same time, both offenses are scoring at will. Sacramento is averaging 112.8 ppg over their last 5 and Houston is even better at 113.2 ppg. Note that the Rockets average 115.3 ppg at home. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Suns OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Monday's matchup between the Suns and Grizzlies. The game is being played in Phoenix and I look for the Suns to dictate the tempo here against a Memphis team that has to be tired, playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights.

The Grizzlies are thought of as a great defensive team, but I don't see the effort being there tonight and they are giving up 104.4 ppg on the road this season. Offensively, Memphis is better than people think and have scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8. Phoenix has scored and allowed at least 100 points in 10 straight games. Only once in those 10 games did they fail to combine for at least 210 points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Kings/Hornets UNDER

My money is on the Kings and Hornets to go under the mark set by the books on Saturday. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here. The Kings have to be running on fumes right now. Sacramento is playing their 6th straight road game in a span of just 9 days and this one comes on no rest after an overtime loss at Indiana last night. The Hornets haven't had to deal with as much travel, but are also playing for the 6th time in 9 days and on no rest after an ugly loss last night at New York. I look for both teams to come out flat and both offenses to struggle to score enough to push this over the mark.

UNDER is 4-1 in the Kings last 5 when playing on no rest, 6-2 in their last 8 after a SU loss and 11-5 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 overall, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Cavs OVER

I'm expecting a lot of points on the scoreboard in this one. Cleveland failed to win after LeBron called out ownership, losing in overtime at home to the Kings. The problem was the defense and I just don't see the Cavs being locked in on that side of the ball here. Cleveland is playing on fumes right now and aren't going to waste up their energy with a much bigger home game on deck Sunday against the Thunder.

Cleveland hasn't had any problem scoring of late, as they ahve put up 112 or more in each of their last 4 games. There's a good chance that trend continues against the Nets, who are allowing a ridiculous 117.3 ppg on the road this season. Brooklyn likes to play at a fast pace and that should allow them to take advantage of this tired Cleveland defense and do enough here to push it over the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game here when the Thunder host the Mavericks tonight. Both of these teams are running on fumes right now. Dallas will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will have to so without several key pieces. Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea are all out for this contest. As for the Thunder, they too are playing on no rest, plus are going to be dealing with some jetlag after just wrapping up a lengthy 6-game road trip. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace here and the shots from long distance won't be falling like they normally would. Not to mention, Dallas knows they can't run up and down the floor with OKC and will really try to slow this game to a snails pace.

UNDER is 10-1 in the Mavericks last 11 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 games on Thursday and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-2 in OKC's last 8 after a win and 12-3 in their last 15 home games when playing 4 or less games in days. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a much-higher scoring game than what most will anticipate tonight when the Mavericks host the Knicks. Dallas is known as a team that is limited offensively and likes to play at a slow pace. While that's true to an extent, you have to look at who they are playing and the current form.

While the Mavs are averaging just 96.6 ppg on the season, they come in scoring 104.2 ppg over their last 5, shooting just under 47% from the field as a team. Good chance they keep it rolling against a Knicks team that is allowing 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and 110.3 ppg on the road. Knicks are more than capable of keeping pace offensively, as they average 105.6 ppg on the season and are scoring 109.6 ppg over their last 5.

OVER is 42-18 in the Mavs last 60 home games off a home win by 20 or more points and a perfect 7-0 in the Knicks last 7 off a road win. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Nets OVER

I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total between the Spurs and Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team, but their ability to put up points combined with their inability to play defense, makes them a great team to back on the OVER. The Nets come in averaging 106.2 ppg , while allowing 114.9 ppg. The Spurs can make great defenses look average and should have no problem scoring at will here against Brooklyn. San Antonio is averaging 108.1 ppg on the road this season and scored 130 on the Nets in the first meeting this season.

OVER is 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after 3 or more consecutive wins  and 13-3 in their last 16 after shooting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. OVER is 13-4 in the Nets Last 17 non-conference games and 23-9 in their last 32 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the total, as I'm expecting a shootout in Boston tonight. The Celtics have been scoring at will on the offensive end of late, as they have scored 100+ in 16 straight games. Hard to image that streak coming to an end against Portland. The Blazers are giving up 112.0 ppg on the road this season. Boston also figures to push the pace here coming off a 2-day break. I think the Celtics are going to hit 220 or more and the Blazers should be able to get at least 100. Boston has allowed 100 or more in 14 of their last 15 games.

OVER is 22-13 in the Blazers last 35 with a total of 210 or more and 16-5 in the Celtics last 21 home games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Blazers/Hornets OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Blazers and Hornets. Neither of these teams are playing much defense right now. The Blazers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the season and 113.0 ppg on the road. Don't see a big effort on defense from Portland in this one. Charlotte has been even worse defensively of late, as they have allowed 100+ in 8 straight games and have allowed 110 or more in 5 of those. Portland can score the basketball, as they average 107.9 ppg overall and 107.1 ppg on the road.

OVER is 13-5 in the Blazers last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Bulls UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here when the Bulls host the Mavericks on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams like to play at a very fast pace. Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Dallas is tied for last in pace with Utah. The big key here is the Bulls are going to be out for revenge from an ugly 82-107 loss at Dallas earlier this season. That's going to have Chicago locked in on the defensive side of the ball and this team can get after you defensively when they want to. More than anything, I just don't see enough possessions here for this one to reach 200, especially when you factor in both of these teams rank in the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.

UNDER is 31-15 in the Bulls last 46 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 8-3 in their last 11 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 at home against a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 following a cover, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hawks UNDER

The books have created some great value here with this high number on the total for Sunday's game between the Bucks and Hawks. Atlanta's defense is trending up, as they come in having allowed just 93.6 ppg over their last 5 and I expect a big defensive effort from the Hawks at home after watching their 7-game winning streak snapped in a 101-103 loss at home to the Celtics. The Bucks aren't a great defensive team, but can lock down when they want to on that side of the ball and this Atlanta is far from explosive. 

UNDER has gone 6-3 in the last 9 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 games in Atlanta. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Hawks last 9 after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting percentage, 9-1 in their last 10 after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games off a home loss. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER

I think the books have missed the mark on the total in today's SEC clash between Missouri and Arkansas, as I see this one going well over the number set here. The Razorbacks are a strong offensive team, averaging 81.6 ppg on the season and 83.2 ppg at home. They should have no problem coming close to that mark here against a Missouri defense that is giving up 78.7 ppg in conference play.

While the Tigers don't feature an explosive offense, they are averaging a respectable 70.7 ppg on the season and are a tick higher in league play at 71.7 ppg. Arkansas is far from an elite defense and have really struggled on that side in SEC play, as they are giving up 85.0 ppg and have yet to hold a conference foe under 78 points. Another big key here is that both of these teams like to play a more up-tempo style, which leads to more possessions and more scoring. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Dominator on Pistons/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game tonight when the Pistons visit the Jazz. Utah is locked in on the defensive side of the ball right now and it's well known that the Jazz are a dominant defensive team. In Utah's last 3 games they have held Minnesota to 92 points, Grizzlies to 88 points and the Cavs to 92 points. Detroit is only scoring 100.3 ppg and don't figure to have their legs in this one, as they are playing their 4th straight on a west coast road trip. I know the Pistons defense hasn't been great of late, but with the way Utah likes to slow the game down, I don't see them going off here.

UNDER is 29-16 in the Pistons last 45 road games after playing a game against a team from the Western Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game (allowed 127 to Warriors). UNDER is also 22-9 in Utah's last 31 home games with a total of 190 to 199.5, 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-0 in their last 8 at home after leading in their last game by 15 or more at the half. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns OVER

I think the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's total between the Mavs and Suns, as they two will face off in Mexico City. I just don't think teams lock in defensively in these games outside the country and there's plenty of reason to expect a lot of scoring just given the matchup.

The Mavericks are giving up 102.6 ppg on the road and the Suns are allowing 113.5 ppg away from home. Dallas is only scoring 95.1 ppg, but even the most limited offenses can torch this Phoenix defense. The Suns also rank 3rd in pace, so we should see extra possessions for both sides. Phoenix can also light it up, as they are scoring 105.9 ppg.

OVER is 20-9 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, 16-4 in their last 20 after scoring 105 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after a home game where both teams scored 100+. TAKE THE OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Lakers/Blazers OVER

I got no problem playing the over on this big total here with the Blazers and Lakers. All signs point to a high-scoring game in this one. We have two teams that don't play a lot of defense. In fact, each ranks in the bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are allowing 109.8 ppg and the Blazers are allowing 111.5 ppg (even worse 113.9 ppg on the road).

Not only do we have two teams who don't play defense, but we have two offenses that like to get out and run and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Both rank in the Top 10 in pace. Portland averages 108.2 ppg and Los Angeles is at 105.3 ppg overall and a much better 109.8 ppg at home. Each team is also trending up on offense, with the Blazers scoring 109.6 ppg over the last 5 games and the Lakers at 115.4 ppg. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Blazers last 16 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after allowing 105 or more in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 against a team with a losing record, 13-5 in their last 18 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Raptors OVER

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game when two of the Eastern Conference's best square off tonight. We have the Celtics visiting the Raptors. While these two can play solid defense, I don't think we see a lot of it tonight. More than anything, these are two elite offenses that can flat out score and are doing so at a very high rate of late. 

Toronto is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 110.6 ppg on the season, 112.9 ppg at home and 109.0 ppg over their last 5. Keep in mind Boston will be without their best perimeter defender in Avery Bradley and that's a huge loss against the Raptors loaded backcourt. Boston ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, averaging 106.8 ppg overall, 106.7 ppg on the road and 115.4 ppg over their last 5. Note the Celtics offense has been lights out of late. They have scored 110 or more 8 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Celtics last 22 after scoring 100 or more in 4 straight games, 8-0 in their last 8 when having won 8 of their last 10 and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 11-2 in the Raptors last 13 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 11-3 in their last 14 off SU loss and 11-0 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more in the first half of their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Bulls OVER

I expect a high-scoring game tonight when the Bulls and Thunder clash at the United Center. This game features two of the league's most promising stars in Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler. While they get all the attention, it's how these two teams are playing overall that has me liking this one to go OVER the mark here set by the books.

Chicago has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 108.8 ppg over their last 5 games. A big part of the improved play offensively, is the production the Bulls are getting from guys like Mirotic, McDermott and Carter-Williams. I look for Chicago to have no problem keeping it going against a Thunder team that doesn't figure to play with a lot of energy on defense playing their 4th road game in their last 5 overall. OKC is giving up 108.7 ppg on the road this season and 106.6 ppg over their last 5.

While the Bulls offense is surging, the defense hasn't been there. Chicago is giving up 110 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a dynamic Thunder offense that is scoring 106.8 ppg on the season and 111.4 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Bulls don't have the talent at point guard to make things tough on Westbrook. That should lead to a fast-paced game from the get go. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wolves/Wizards OVER

I really like the value here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Wolves. These are two teams that know how to score the basketball. Minnesota comes in averaging 103.3 ppg and Washington is averaging 105.2 ppg with an even better 108.2 ppg at home. At the same time, these are two teams that struggle to defend. The Timberwolves give up 105.0 ppg and the Wizards allow 106.2 ppg.

With both teams having not played since Tuesday (2 days rest), both are going to have fresh legs and will be looking to get out an run as much as possible. This is huge for both of these teams, as Minnesota's starters lead the league in minutes played and the Wizards are second. Some might look to back the under after seeing Minnesota score 91 and 89 points in their last two games, but that actually is a good thing. OVER is 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 after going UNDER the total in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 when playing with 2 days rest and 16-5 in their last 21 after playing their last 2 games on the road. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bulls/Cavs UNDER

I think the total here has been set way too high. Cleveland could be playing this game without all 3 of their Big 3 and will more than likely not have Irving in this one. James and Love are both dealing with sickness and it was so bad for James that he was told to stay home from shootaround. Even if he plays, I just don't see the Cavs looking to push the tempo here.

Chicago isn't in much better shape, as they could be without Wade and Rondo continues to ride the bench in Hoiberg's doghouse. The key here is that whoever does end up playing will bring the defensive intensity in this division matchup. UNDER is 19-7 in the Bulls last 26 division road games, 9-3-1 in their last 13 after scoring 100 or more in their last game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 off a SU win. Take the UNDER !

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's contest between the Raptors and Spurs. These are two of the best the league has to offer and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Anytime you get two elite teams facing off with a big total like we have here, the UNDER is always a strong option. In fact, the UNDER is 62-20 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 or more with two teams that are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg.

Last year these two teams played twice and combined for just 191 and 197 points. It's also worth pointing out that both totals last year were no where close to what we are seeing here. The total was just 187.5 at San Antonio and 192 at Toronto. We also see that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 off a SU loss and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Early Bird TaxSlayer Bowl Total No Brainer on Kentucky/Ga Tech OVER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well over the mark set by the books. Both of these teams shouldn’t have much problem getting their offense going.

Kentucky comes in averaging 31.0 ppg and put up 35+ in 5 of their final 6 games. The Wildcats have a dynamic rushing attack that finished 16th in the country at 241.3 ypg. You also can’t sleep on the passing game. Stephen Johnson thew for 9 of his 12 touchdowns in the final 6 games. He finished the season off with 338 yards and 3 scores against Louisville.

They should find plenty of success against a Georgia Tech defense that wasn’t great. The Yellow Jackets finished 64th against the run and 74th against the pass. They gave up 4.8 yards/carry on the ground and allowed QB’s to complete 62.7% of their attempts.

On the flip side of this, Georgia Tech’s triple-option should make life miserable for UK. The Wildcats finished 108th in the country in run defense, giving up 225.0 ypg. I know they will have had a month to prepare for the option. The problem is if you haven’t played against it, it’s really hard to stop and the Wildcats simply aren't familiar with the option offense. I look for a lot of mental breakdowns for Kentucky’s defense, which is going to lead to big plays and quick scores.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Wildcats defense was much worse away from home. Kentucky gave up 37.4 ppg on the road this season. They allowed 5.8 yards/carry and 9.4 yards/pass attempt. Georgia Tech doesn’t throw a lot, but when they do it goes for big gains. I think they throw a few wrinkles in for this one that catch Kentucky off guard.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in Kentucky’s last 7 non-conference games and 7-0 after an upset win as a double-digit dog. OVER is also 12-4-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 17 non-conference games. Take the OVER!

4* Bulls/Spurs NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

The defensive intensity is turned up a notch from what it normally is during the regular season on these Christmas Day games and the Spurs/Bulls matchup will be no different. Both these teams can get after it defensively. Chicago is only giving up 99.7 ppg and the Spurs allow just 97.9 ppg. 

This game means a lot to both teams. San Antonio wants revenge from a 91-95 loss in Chicago earlier this season, which is one of only two road losses all year. The Bulls are simply desperate for a win, as they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 11. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Bulls 14 road games this season, 9-1 in their last 10 after a loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. 

A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Redskins/Bears OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks in this one. Washington is a team that just seems to find themselves in high-scoring games, but are coming off a 15-26 loss at home to the Panthers, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. Prior to that game, Washington had a total of 48 or more in 6 of their previous 7 games, the only exception coming against the Vikings, which had a total of 42 (combined for 46).

The Bears defense hasn't been horrible, but I think they are going to have a really hard time showing up here. They put everything they had into last week's home game against rival Green Bay. Even if they did come to play, they were going to struggle to slow down this high-powered Washington offense that hasn't failed to score fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games all season. 

The big key here is the Bears offense should be able to keep pace with the Redskins. Washington's defense is atrocious and have allowed 20 or more points in 9 straight games, giving up 26 or more in 3 of their last 4. Chicago has had their ups and downs offensively, but I really like what I have seen out of Barkley and he just threw for 354 yards and 2 scores against the Packers last week. That game was the first for Barkley with Alshon Jeffery, who returned from a suspension. Jeffrey caught 6 passes for 89 yards and 1 touchdown and I look for him to be even more involved this week.

OVER is 8-1 in Washington's last 9 with a spread of 3 or less, 9-1 this season with a total of 42.5 to 49 and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a SU loss. OVER is also 9-1 in the Bears last 10 home games off a home loss to a division rival and 13-2 in their last 15 after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Take the OVER!

5* Armed Forces Bowl Total of the Month on OVER

I actually think there's some great value here with the total and this one going well OVER the mark here. The perception here is that Navy's offense won't be able to produce like it had been now that they are down to their 3rd string quarterback, who only managed to guide the Midshipmen offense to just 17 points in a loss to Army. That came after Navy only managed to score 10 points in the ACC title game against Temple. While Louisiana Tech has a strong run defense, this triple-option offense is extremely difficult to stop, even when you have had ample amount of time to prepare. The Bulldogs also close out the season giving up 35, 39 and 58 points in their final 3 games.

I believe Navy can score in the 28-35 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that can score quickly and this Navy defense has struggled all season giving up big plays and simply aren't that talented on that side of the ball. The Midshipmen finished 74th against the run (187.0 ypg) and 80th against the pass (242.2 ypg). They have allowed 30+ points in 6 of their last 9 games, 3x giving up 40 or more. Due to playing in the ACC title game and then having to turn around and play Army the next week, Navy hasn't had a lot of time to prep for this game, so don't expect the defense to be any better than it has been against top tier offenses like we have here with the Bulldogs.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Bulldogs 7 games this season with a total posted between 63.5 and 70 points and 9-1 when it's more than 63. OVER is also 21-9 in La Tech's last 30 when facing a team that averages 34 or more points/game and 9-2 in Navy's last 11 when facing a high-powered offense that averages 425 or more yards/game. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

5* Miami Beach Bowl Veges Insider Top Play on OVER

This has all the makings of a shootout, with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. All you really have to do is look at Tulsa’s results this season to see why the over should be a good play. The Golden Hurricane feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank 6th in the country in total offense (522.6 ypg) and 11th in scoring (41.3 ppg). Tulsa has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. That being an early season road game against a superior Ohio State team.

I look for Tulsa to score 40+ here against the Chippewas. Central Michigan’s defense has been exposed on a number of occasions. They allowed 49 to both Virginia and Western Michigan. They also gave up 31 to Toledo and 37 to Miami (OH).

Not only have the Golden Hurricane been putting up a lot of points, they have allowed quite a few as well. Tulsa defense ranks 80th in total defense (432.4 ypg) and are T-89th in points allowed (31.5 ppg). They are equally as bad against the run (184.1 ypg, 73rd) as they are against the pass (248.3 ypg, 89th).

I’m aware that Central Michigan’s offense has struggled of late. The Chippewas didn’t score more than 28-points in a single conference game. I’m not concerned. This Tulsa defense has made bad offenses look great all season long. Just look at their regular season finale against Cincinnati.

Tulsa allowed the Bearcats to score 37 points and rack up 534 yards of total offense. Note that Cincinnati scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their 12 games. They had scored a mere 26 in their previous 4 games combined before exploding against Tulsa.

It’s also worth pointing out the Chippewas have a legit QB in senior Cooper Rush. He’s a potential late round NFL draft pick, who can sling it. He completed 61.1% of his attempts for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 338.0 passing yards/game in Central Michigan’s 4 non-conference games. In those contests, the Chippewas averaged 39.5 ppg.

OVER is 26-6 (81%) over the last 10 seasons in games with a total between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.Take the OVER!

4* Patriots/Broncos NFL Situational No Brainer on UNDER

There's a lot of interest on the spread in this one, but I think the value here is on the total and this one going UNDER the mark. These are two of the best defenses in the league and the conditions this time of year certainly favor that side of the ball. Denver comes in 3rd in total defense (310.7 ypg) and 6th in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). New England is 10th in total defense (338.1 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (17.7 ppg). Both also rank in the top 13 in the league in 3rd down defense, which is key here, as both sides will struggle to sustain drives.

I know the Patriots offense looked great against the Ravens last week, but that was at home and Baltimore is better suited to stop the run than the pass and lost one of their top corners early in that game. New England's offense simply isn't the same without Gronkowski, especially in the redzone. Denver's pass rush should also play a huge factor in not allowing Brady and company to put up many long drives.

Don't really need to go into detail on the struggles with Denver's offense. Trevor Siemian simply isn't the quarterback talent required to have success against a Belichick coached defense. The Broncos inability to run the football will be detrimental to their success offensively in this one, as Belichick will put together a gameplan to make sure Denver's two star wideouts are a non factor.

The other big key here is what this game means to both teams. New England desperately wants to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and to do so can't afford to lose this game. As for the Broncos, this has the feeling of a playoff game, as they are barely hanging on to the final Wild Card spot and the schedule doesn't get any easier after this one. All signs point to a low scoring game. Take the UNDER!

5* 49ers/Falcons NFL No Limit Top Play on OVER

I don't know that the books can set a total high enough here, as they are pretty stubborn when it comes to listing a total much more than this. I expect plenty of points here from Atlanta, who isn't going to let their foot off the gas, as they are tied with the Bucs for first in the NFC South and failing to win the division could result in missing the playoffs completely.

The Falcons come in clicking offensively, having scored 28 or more in each of their last 3, including a 42 point outburst last week at the Rams. Keep in mind they were missing Julio Jones and going up against a pretty good LA defense. Now they face a 49ers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL, giving up 415 ypg. San Francisco is also giving up an average of 29.5 ppg on the road and have zero to play for at this juncture of the season.

The key here is that I believe the 49ers can provide enough scoring to get this well over the 50-point mark. San Francisco is a 2 touchdown dog in this one, so I don't see the defensive intensity being there for Atlanta. At the same time, the Falcons figure to get out to a comfortable lead and will be quick to play it safe and avoid anyone getting hurt. That means some favorable scoring opportunities will come the 49ers way in the 2nd half and we should only need them to score around 20 to cash this ticket.

OVER is 6-0 in Atlanta's 6 home games this season and a perfect 7-0 when playing in a dome. OVER is also 4-2 in the 49ers 6 road games (avg score of 53.2 ppg). Over also a perfect 6-0 in the 49ers last 6 road games against excellent passing teams, who are completing 64% or more more of their attempts (Falcons are completing 72% at home this season). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

5* NFC North Total of the Month on Bears/Lions OVER

I know these two teams only combined for 31 points in the first meeting. But keep in mind the total for that one was 48 and is now 43.5. That’s a big jump and this time they are playing in ideal conditions with Detroit playing in a Dome.

If you look back over the years, these two have a history of lighting up the scoreboard when the Lions are hosting. In fact, the last 4 meetings in Detroit have seen a combined score of at least 50 points. Last year the two combined for 71 in a 37-34 Lions win.

I certainly don’t expect the Bears to hold Detroit under 20 points again. The Lions are clicking offensively after putting up 422 yards of offense on the Saints last week. A game if they don’t settle for 5 field goals, could have scored 40+ on their own. Chicago’s defense played well against the 49ers last Sunday, but that’s not saying much. Plus the conditions were ideal for a low-scoring game with the snow and wind at Soldier Field.

One of the reasons we are seeing a low total is the Bears are starting Matt Barkley at quarterback. I’ve actually been really impressed with him in his two starts. He threw for 316 yards and 3 scores against the Titans in Week 12 and that was with his receivers dropping 10 passes. he then completed 61% and threw for 192 yards in the awful conditions last week. As good as the Lions secondary was against Brees last week, they still rank 20th against the pass.

OVER is 11-2 in Detroit’s last 13 after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. It’s also 12-2 in the Lions last 14 after a road win by 10 or more points. OVER is also 5-1 in the Bears last 6 after allowing 15 or less and 25-12 in their last 37 road games. Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.

The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Temple/Navy UNDER

I think we are getting some big time value on the UNDER in Saturday's total between Temple and Navy in the AAC Championship Game. I believe a lot of that has to do with the recent results for Navy, who has put up 66 and 75 points in their last two games. While you don't really expect the Midshipmen to put up those kind of points, it wasn't all that surprising given it came against East Carolina and SMU. The Pirates have the 110th ranked rushing defense and the Mustangs are far behind with the 96th ranked rushing defense.

It's about to get a whole lot harder to run the ball for Navy, as they are facing a stingy Temple defense that finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 273.5 ypg. They were sensational against the run, giving up just 128 ypg and a mere 3.6 yards/carry. I know it's a lot different stopping a normal rushing attack compared to Navy's triple-option attack, but the Owls have already faced two triple-option teams in Army and Tulane, so the principles of how to attack this offense are fresh with these players.

Now I know Navy's defense hasn't been great, but this is a good matchup for the Midshipmen. Their biggest weakness on defense is stopping the pass, as they were a mere 107th in the country, giving up 264.9 ypg. Temple's not a great passing team and more than anything they want to run the football, as they averaged 42 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 27 pass attempts (averaging 50+ rush attempts in their last 6 games).

Both teams here are going to pound the rock when they have it, which is going to eat up the clock and limit the possessions for both sides. On top of that, neither of these teams like to push the tempo, so we can expect to see a lot of long drives. Exactly what we are looking for when taking an UNDER with a total north of 60. Take the UNDER!

4* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 Champ No Brainer on UNDER

The value in this matchup is on the total. When you think of the Pac-12, you think of high-scoring offenses and lackluster defense (with the exception of Stanford). While both of these teams can light up a scoreboard, it’s their defenses that got them here. I look for this to resemble more of a Big Ten defensive battle than a Pac-12 shootout. I actually think the total should be closer to 50 than 60.

These are the two best defenses in the Pac-12 statistically. Washington ranks 17th in total defense (328.9 ypg) and are allowing just 17.8 ppg. Colorado is even better. The Buffaloes are 13th in total defense (323.7 ypg) and allowing only 18.7 ppg. That a lone really tells you all you need to know for why there’s value on the UNDER with a total at 58.

The only Pac-12 team that is on par with these two in defensive talent is USC. It just so happens that both teams plays the Trojans this year and both were defensive battles. Colorado lost 17-21 at USC and Washington lost 13-26 at home to the Trojans. Keep in mind that USC is every bit as potent offensively as these two teams.

When you factor in the magnitude of this game and where it's being played, I think it only favors a low-scoring game that much more. It’s anyone’s guess how much the playoff committee is going to value conference championships. Regardless, both of these teams have to feel like they have a shot at getting in with a win. This is a lot of pressure for two programs who aren’t use to being in this spot.

I have a feeling that this total will likely only get lower as we get closer to kickoff. If you like what you see with the UNDER, I recommend getting in on the action now. With that said, I still think there’s great value here at anything over 53 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER

These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.

Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Panthers/Raiders OVER

I think we are going to see a lot of offensive fireworks on Sunday when the Raiders host the Panthers. For starters, these are two very capable offenses. Carolina comes in averaging 24.4 ppg, while the Raiders are scoring 27.2 ppg. On top of that, both defenses have had their struggles this season, the Panthers are giving up 24.6 ppg overall and 30.0 ppg on the road, while Oakland is allowing 24.3 ppg overall and 28.0 ppg at home.

I think there's good reason to believe both defenses won't be at their best. Carolina will be without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, which is arguably the one player they can't afford to lose on that side of the ball. That's going to open up some running lanes for the Raiders, who also figure to have a big day throwing the ball, as Carolina comes in with the 26th ranked pass defense. As for Oakland's defense, it's one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th overall (24th against the run and 28th against the pass). I also think they come out flat on that side of the ball playing on short rest, along with the travel after playing last week in Mexico on Monday Night Football. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Panthers last 12 against a team with a winning record, 9-1 in their last 10 road games against a bad defensive team that's allowing 350 or more yards/game and 8-1 in their last 9 road games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24 or more points/game. OVER is also 10-2 in the Raiders last 12 against a strong offensive team that's averaging 24+ points/game. Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF SEC West Total of the Month on Auburn/Alabama UNDER

Last year's Iron Bowl saw just 44 combined points and I think we could see an even bigger offensive struggle this time around. These are two of the best defenses in the country, who are going to lay everything they have on the line in this massive rivalry game.

Alabama comes in 2nd in the country in total defense, giving up just 252.6 ypg and are outstanding against the run, allowing just 68.9 ypg (1st). Auburn is extremely dependent on their running game, as they come in 5th in rushing (297.8 ypg) compared to 109th in passing (175.7 ypg). As good as the Tigers are running the ball, the Crimson Tide have proven they are up to the challenge, completely shutting down some really great running teams this season.

Auburn is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers are 18th in the country in total defense, giving up just 334.5 ypg and are at their best against the run (117.7 ypg). Alabama's offense isn't as explosive in years past and are very dependent on their ability to run the ball with success to put up a lot of points.

UNDER is 6-0 in Alabama's last 6 against strong rushing teams, who average 4.75 or more yards/carry and 10-2 in their last 12 home games against teams who average 230 or more rushing yards/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Tide's last 12 home games after 8 or more SU wins and 11-2 in their last 13 after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER

New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.

The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.

I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!

5* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East Total of the Month on OVER 

While these two only combined for 50 points in the first meeting, it could have been a lot more. There were 10 scoring drives in the game and 5 of those were field goals. They also got 50 with only 7-points scored combined between the two in the 4th quarter. 

There were over 800 yards of total offense with each team finishing with 24 first downs. Keep in mind that was all the way back in Week 2. Dak Prescott was making just his second career start. At the same time, Washington’s offense was no were close to as good as it is at this point in the season.

A key player that wasn’t a factor for the Redskins offense at that time was running back Robert Kelly. He didn’t even have a carry in that contest. Kelly has rushed for 321 yards and 4 scores in Washington’s last 3 games. Having a true threat of a running game really takes this Redskins offense to the next level. Keep in mind they only had 432 rushing yards in their first 5 games of the season. 

While the offense can score with anyone, Washington’s defense is prone to giving up a lot of big plays. The Redskins are ranked 23rd in total defense, giving up 371.3 ypg. Most importantly given this matchup, is their struggles against the run. Washington comes in allowing 112.1 yards/game on the ground.

So while the Cowboys like to work the clock, they figure to have some big plays that result in some quick scores. Ezekiel Elliot was just getting going the last time these two played and he still put up 83 yards on 21 attempts.

I also think there's an extra edge to the offense on both sides, as these two defenses aren't going to be flying around the field playing on short rest. OVER is 14-4 in the Redskins last 18 road games after scoring 35 or more points. It’s also 8-1 in their last 9 after gaining more than 400 yards of total offense. OVER is also 24-11 in the Cowboys last 35 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER

I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.

It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Temple/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive showdown in Tulane on Saturday. Temple comes into this game off a 21-0 win at Connecticut. A game in which they failed to score a single point in the final 3 quarters of regulation. Not a surprising outcome given that the Huskies are a strong defensive team and very limited offensively.

Tulane is just as bad as UConn offensively, but are much better defensively. The Green Wave come in ranked 112th in the country in total offense, averaging just 353.4 ypg. Almost all of that comes on the ground, as they average 236.4 ypg rushing, compared to 117.0 ypg passing. Hard to imagine them doing much of anything here, as Temple is 7th in the country in total defense, allowing just 291.4 ypg. On top of that, the Owls have had a full two weeks to prepare for this game.

As for the Green Wave defense, you might be surprised to see that they are 23rd in the country in total defense, given they are just 3-7 overall and 0-6 in conference play. They are a balanced defensive attack, ranking 49th against the run and 30th against the pass. Last time out against a dynamic Houston offense, they limited the Cougars to just 30 points and only 287 yards of total offense.

The big key here is that this not a game that Temple can overlook, as they are tied with USF on top the East standings in the AAC at 5-1. Due to beating USF at home, they hold the tiebreaker and if they win out, they are headed to the ACC Championship Game. I also expect a big effort from Tulane, as they desperately want to avoid going winless in conference play, plus there's a little extra motivation here with this being their home finale. Note they have played very well at home against the better teams in the ACC, losing 14-21 to Navy and 14-24 to Memphis. I think we see a very similar type of score here, which has well below the mark in this one. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Lakers OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game Friday night when the Lakers host the Spurs on ESPN. This LA team has been a pleasant surprise early on this season and they are playing an exciting brand of basketball, as new head coach Luke Walton has brought over a similar type of offense to the Warriors. The Lakers will jack up 3's as much as they can and will be looking to push the pace. I believe they can dictate the tempo here playing on 2 days of rest. 

San Antonio likes to play at a little slower pace, but will have no problem picking up the tempo here. The Spurs should be able to put up a big number here against a Lakers defense that is giving up north of 108 ppg. San Antonio is a well-oiled machine offensively and are actually scoring better on the road than they are at home. The Spurs are averaging just 101.9 ppg on the season, but are scoring 108.8 ppg on the road. Lakers are also a much better offensive team at home, as they are putting up 115.6 ppg at home compared to their season average of 110.0 ppg. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 road games and 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 on the road. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the OVER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road.

It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden.

We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Month on USC/Washington UNDER

I love the value we are getting with the total in Saturday's highly anticipated Pac-12 showdown between Washington and USC. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total here due to how well these two offenses have looked of late. Both have scored 40+ in 4 of their last 5 games. However, that's not all that surprising given how few teams in the Pac-12 play defense. I'm not saying these two offenses aren't legit, I just don't think their defenses are getting near the respect they deserve in this one.

Washington comes into this game ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the strength of their stop unit is their secondary, which ranks 13th against the pass, allowing just 181.9 ypg. USC is a respectable 38th in total defense and have allowed more than 27 points just once in their last 8 games. The Huskies haven't allowed more than 28 points all season.

While both offenses are much improved over last year, you can't ignore the fact that these two teams combined for just 29 points in Washington's 17-12 win at USC a year ago. With everything that both of these teams have riding on this game, I expect another hard fought defensive battle.

The UNDER is 10-2 in USC's last 12 road games after scoring 42 or more points in 2 straight games and 20-8 in their last 28 against a team with a winning record. Under is also 11-2 in the Huskies last 13 with a total set at 56.5 to 63 points and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.

The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.

It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!

5* MNF Total of the Year on Bills/Seahawks UNDER

It’s no secret that Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It’s been the case the last few years. They come in ranked 6th in total defense, allowing just 319.4 ypg. They are strong in both phases, ranking 7th against the run and 9th against the pass. They are also 2nd in scoring defense, behind only Minnesota, allowing just 15.9 ppg.

With Seattle playing at home, I think it’s going to be really tough for Buffalo to generate a lot of offense. The Bills had okay numbers offensively against New England, but a lot of that game after the game was out of hand. They are still without their top wide out in Sammy Watkins. They may also be without Marquise Goodwin (questionable), who leads the team with 3 TD catches. It’s also up in the air if LeSean McCoy will play.

On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Seahawks’ offense is going to do a lot here. Seattle is just 23rd in total defense (339.9 ypg) and 29th in scoring (18.7). Only the Rams, Texans and Bears rank worse in points/game. Russell Wilson is not playing well. He’s got a bum leg and a horrible offensive line. The thing is, people are holding on to what they have seen from him and this offense in the past.

Buffalo’s defense didn’t look great last week, but that was against Brady and the Pats. I don’t know that any defense can keep them in check with the way Brady is playing. The Bills front should dominate here against Seattle’s o-line. Keep in mind Buffalo is tied with Denver for the league lead with 26 sacks. Lorenzo Alexander is the main culprit, who has a league-high 9 sacks.

We just saw Seattle play a 6-6 tie two weeks ago against Arizona in a prime time game. I don’t know that it will be that bad, but it’s not out of the question. UNDER is 12-3 in the Bills last 15 as a road dog. It’s also a perfect 5-0 in the Seahawks last 5 games played on Monday Night Football. Take the UNDER!

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Saints/49ers OVER

This line feels like a trap with the Saints only laying 3.5-points off that big win over Seattle. However, I don’t trust the 49ers or like backing bad teams with small spreads. On the bright side, I love the value here on the total and this one going over the mark.

This might seem like a big number with the 49ers involved, given their limitations on offense. San Francisco has scored 21 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games. However, I like this spot for the 49ers offense.

Coming off their bye, SF has had two weeks to get the offense centered more around Kaepernick. On top of that, this is a great matchup. The Saints are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They are 18th against the run (110.7 ypg) and 29th against the pass (286.7 ypg). I think Kaepernick will be able to exploit them for some big plays through the air.

You also can’t overlook how bad a spot this is for the Saints. They are coming off a very physical game against Seattle and have another on deck against the Broncos. It’s going to be hard for them to get up emotionally for a bad team like the 49ers.

I think the lack of focus will come more on the defense than the offense. Drew Brees doesn’t take games off. That’s key here, cause he should have a field day against this 49ers defense.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that San Francisco is 7th against the pass. That’s more of a result of who they have played and their inability to stop the run. The 49ers are dead last against the run, giving up 185.1 ypg. Teams aren’t going to put up huge passing numbers on them when they can run at will. Keep in mind Cam Newton tormented their secondary earlier this season for 353 yards and 4 scores.

It’s also worth pointing out the OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games against a team with a losing record. The average total score in these 7 games is 64.9 ppg. Look for a lot of points to be scored on Sunday. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Air Force/Army UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's military showdown between Air Force and Army. While it's not quite the same rivalry as Army/Navy, it's pretty close. Anytime you get two armed forces going against each other, it serious business. However, that's not the main reason I like the UNDER in this one.

It's the fact that we have two teams that are going to run it a lot. Air Force averages 63 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 14 pass attempts. Army keeps it on the ground 62 times a game and attempts just 10 passes on average. The clock is going to be running constantly in this one, which is going to keep possessions at a minimum.

The other big key here is that one of the big advantages that these triple option teams like Army and Air Force have over their competition is the option is not easy to prepare for in the typical 6 days teams have between games. That advantage is thrown out the window in these games, as both of these teams are familiar with the schemes and know how to stop it.

Just look at the recent meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 23 points with a total set at 50. The year before they only combined for 29 with a total of 54.

Another factor here is that Air Force could be without starting quarterback Nate Romine, as he's questionable with a ankle injury. The quarterback is arguably the most important piece in the option. Even if he plays, the Falcons option attack won't be as strong with him not at 100%. If he doesn't, it's only going to make Air Force that much more dependent on the run. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Thursday Night Total Annihilator on OVER

I really like the value here on these two teams going over the total. While the Cyclones only come in averaging 24.0 ppg, this is a great matchup for the ISU offense. The Cyclones have the 47th ranked passing offense in the country at 252.4 ypg. Oklahoma’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and their secondary has struggled. The Sooners rank 126th in the country against the pass, allowing a staggering 314.9 ypg.

Iowa State has thrown for 260 or more yards in 4 of their 8 games. In those 4 games they have topped that mark, they are averaging 35.8 ppg. That includes a 42 point effort against Baylor and 31 point outburst at Oklahoma State.

If the Cyclones can just get to 28 points that should be enough to push this over the total. Oklahoma is averaging a ridiculous 51.4 ppg in conference play. The only team to hold them under 40 points is Kansas State. Keep in mind that the Sooners have scored at least 48 points in each of their last 3 games against the Cyclones. That includes a 59 point outburst in their last trip to Jack Trice.

There’s little reason to believe Iowa State’s defense can keep them in check. The Cyclones rank 107th in the country in total defense, allowing 453 ypg. Note they have already allowed 41 to TCU, 45 to Baylor and 38 to Oklahoma State. The Sooners are without a doubt the best offense they have faced this season.

I think you also have to keep in mind that Oklahoma doesn’t figure to let their foot off the gas. The Sooners are still not completely out of making the playoffs. The only thing they can do at this point is destroy the opposition. They didn’t let their foot off the gas last week against Kansas until they were up 53 points.

OVER is 11-1 in Oklahoma’s last 12 road games. It’s also 16-4 in the Sooners’ last 20 with a total at 70 or more points. Take the OVER!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I originally leaned towards Georgia and the points, but the more I looked into this, I feel the real value is with the UNDER. One of the big reasons I liked the Bulldogs is I felt they were strong enough defensively to keep Florida's offense in check and getting over a touchdown in a game when neither team figures to score much was great value. However, I'd much rather just take my chances on a low-scoring game and not have to worry about Florida sneaking out a 10-point win on a turnover. 

Florida comes into this game with the 2nd ranked defense in the country and after what we saw last year with this unit, I don't think there's any questioning that it's the real deal. The only game they allowed more than 14 points this season was at Tennessee in which things spiraled out of control in the 2nd half, as they gave up 35 to the Vols after holding them to just 3-points in the first 2 periods. 

Even with that poor showing they come into this game allowing just 3.2 yards/carry against the run and are holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 37.9% completion rate. Georgia's offense is dependent on their ability to run the ball and Florida is going to load the box and not allow them to beat them on the ground. Very similar to last year, when they held the Bulldogs to just 3 points and 69 yards rushing. 

As for Florida's offense, they are limited and have simply taken advantage of some bad defensive teams. The best defense they have faced all year is Vanderbilt, which ranks 62nd in total defense. Every other team they have faced currently ranks 80th or worse in total defense. Note that Florida only scored 13 points on 236 total yards in that game against the Commodores. 

Now they face a Georgia defense that comes in ranked 20th in total defense. The big key here, is the Bulldogs are at their best against the run. They are 17th in the country, allowing just 111.1 ypg and just 3.5 yards/carry. Florida is only averaging 21.7 ppg in 3 games where they rush for 110 or fewer yards and are averaging 39.0 ppg when in 3 games when they rush for 200 or more. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on W Virginia/Oklahoma St UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers come into this one undefeated and ranked No. 10 in the country and will be getting their biggest test of the year in Oklahoma State, who is 3-1 and still in position to win the Big 12 title. I think the Cowboys are going to take exception to being a home dog against West Virginia and you can count on Boone Pickens Stadium being electric with a Top 10 team coming to town. 

This might not seem like a great under bet give Oklahoma State comes in averaging 41.1 ppg and West Virginia isn't too far behind at 33.0 ppg. However, I don't think either of these offenses are all they are made out to be. West Virginia has played 5 FBS opponents and 4 of those are ranked outside the Top 75 in total defense. The only exception being Kansas State, who they managed just 17 points at home against (only had 3 points going into the 4th quarter). This is also just the second true road game for West Virginia and I think that hurts the offense, especially in this environment. 

Oklahoma State has also benefited from playing some bad defenses to start the year. The Cowboys last 3 games were against Texas, Iowa State and Kansas, who are all ranked 90th or worse in total defense. The two respectable defenses they have faced are Central Michigan and Baylor and they failed to top 30 in both of those games. West Virginia comes in allowing just 17.8 ppg and are really clicking on that side of the ball right now. The past two weeks they held the high-powered offenses of Texas and TCU to a combined 27 points.

Both of these teams have really made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. West Virginia is only allowing a completion percentage of 52.6% on the season and the Cowboys aren't too far behind, allowing just 58.9%. With the wind expected to be blowing around 15-20 mph for most of this game, I think both teams are going to run it a lot. That's going to eat up the clock and cut down on the possessions for both teams.  

UNDER is 17-4 in West Virginia's last 21 conference games, 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are allowing 250 or more passing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest. 

Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year. 

Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cubs/Indians World Series Game 2 No Brainer on OVER 

After Game 1 went under the total of just 6.5, I think we are seeing some value here with the total in Game 2 at just 7 runs. The Cubs were shutout in the opener, but they certainly had their chances to push across multiple runs. Kluber was sensational and they backed him up with Miller and Allen. One positive for Chicago was they made Miller work, as he threw 46 pitches. Chances are he won't pitch tonight and if he does there's a good chance he struggles. 

Both teams should be able to get something going offensively tonight. Chicago sends out Jake Arrieta, who just hasn't been himself in the postseason, allowing 6 runs on 12 hits in 11 innings of work. Bauer gave up 3 runs on 6 hits (2 HR) at home to the Red Sox in the divisional round and then had to leave his start against the Blue Jays after recording just 2 outs in the first inning, due to the cut on his finger. 

OVER is 11-1 in Arrieta's last 12 road starts as a favorite of -125 or more, 7-0 in Chicago's last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in the Cubs last 4 after allowing 5 or more runs. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on C. Michigan/Toledo UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to what these offenses have done to this point and not how these two teams stack up against each other. Central Michigan comes comes in averaging 32.3 ppg and Toledo is putting up 43.0 ppg. The betting public is going to see that and think this total should be much closer to 70 than 60. 

The key here is that these are two very capable defensive teams and the offensive numbers for both sides are greatly aided by a some really weak competition they have played. Here's a list of where the Chippewas FBS opponents they have played rank in total defense; 106th, 74th, 107th, 22nd, 88th and 122nd. The team that was 22nd was Western Michigan and Central Michigan scored 10-points in that game. Now lets do the same thing for Toledo; 92nd, 101st, 83rd, 68th and 125th. 

As far as these two defenses are concerned. Central Michigan comes in ranked 31st in total defense, allowing just 351 ypg. Toledo is 37th in total defense, allowing just 360 ypg. Both of these teams are really good against the pass, which should limit the big plays here. Opposing teams are completing just 56.5% of their attempts against the Chippewas and only 51.4% against the Rockets. 

UNDER is 25-11 in Toledo's last 36 games against good offensive teams, who are averaging 425 or more yards/game. It's also 17-5 in their last 22 against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 5-0 in Central Michigan's last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* ALCS Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I know these two teams have went under the total in each of the first four games of this series, but the Blue Jays finally got their offense on track in Game 3, as they avoided elimination. Now Toronto gets to face off against Indians starter Ryan Merritt, who is being forced into action. Merrit has made one big league start in his career and that game in late September against a defeated Royals team. Asking him to pitch well in this spot is a asking a lot and I'll take my chances he gets knocked around early.

As for the Blue Jays, they will send out Marco Estrada, who has been lights out in each of his first two postseason starts. However, both of those outings came on the road. For whatever reason, Estrada is a different pitcher at home and has a tendency to struggle. He went just 3-7 in 15 home starts and has an ERA over 5.00 in his last 10 home starts. 

OVER is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after hitting .200 or worse over their last 5 games and 17-5 in their last 22 road games after 6 or more consecutive unders. OVER is also 5-1 in Estrada's last 6 home starts. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL Vegas Insider Top Play on Jets/Cardinals OVER

Arizona’s offense hasn’t produced at the level most expected through their first 4 games. A lot of that has to do with some poor play from starting quarterback Carson Palmer. The thing to keep in mind, is 3 of Palmer’s 4 starts came against some pretty good defenses. Those being the Patriots, Bills and Rams.

The one exception being the Buccaneers and the results were much better. Palmer threw for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tampa Bay and Arizona put up 40 points.

Coming into the season the Jets were perceived to have a great defense. That hasn’t been the case and I don’t see it changing here. New York can’t stop the pass. They rank 31st in the league against the pass, giving up 303 ypg. They are giving up a ridiculous 8.7 yards/pass attempt and opposing QB’s are completing 71.7% of their attempts against them.

They have been especially vulnerable to the deep ball. That’s a major problem against the Cardinals. Arizona loves to throw it deep and have all kinds of weapons in the passing game.

On the flip side of this, I think the Jets offense will help out in one way or another. New York has some weapons and should be able to get their running game going. Arizona ranks just 23rd at stopping the run, giving up 118.2 ypg. That takes some pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

At the same time, New York is prone to turnovers. Chances are Arizona’s secondary gets a couple big takeaways. As long as they don’t come in the endzone like they did against the Chiefs, it will help push this over the mark.

If I had to put a number on it, I think Arizona has 30+ points in this game. That means we only need around 17 from the Jets to cash this ticket. OVER is 7-1 in the Jets last 8 following a SU loss. The OVER is also 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

4* SEC Over/Under Total Annihilator on Florida/Missouri UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Both Missouri and Florida had last week off, giving them a ton of time to prepare for this game. Last year they combined for just 24 points in a 21-3 Gators win at Missouri. The previous year they combined for 55 points in a 42-13 Tigers win. However, that's about as misleading of a score as you will ever find. Missouri scored 42 points on a mere 119 yards of total offense, as they had a touchdown on kick return, punt return, interception and fumble. I'll take my chances something like that doesn't happen again in this series. 

I know Missouri's gone to a more uptempo offense this year, but it's not really producing against the top teams they have played. Take away their 61 point effort against Eastern Michigan and 79 point outburst against Delaware State and they are averaging just 15.0 ppg in their 3 games against West Virginia, Georgia and LSU. They have been especially bad on the road, scoring just 11 at West Virginia and 7 at LSU. It's no secret that Florida has one of the best defenses in the country and are as tough to score as they come at home (only allowed 14 points at home all season). 

We also know that the Gators offense isn't a juggernaut and can struggle to put points on the scoreboard. We saw it last year and again this season. While Missouri's defense isn't great, they have been missing some key guys on that side of the ball, who are expected to be back this week. Add in the extra time to prepare for the Gators and I look for the Tigers to hold their own. Keep in mind they could give up 30 points and we still could be in good shape, as I don't see the Tigers scoring more than 17. 

It's also worth mentioning that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 road games and 33-18 in Florida's last 51 off a non-cover where they won the game outright (beat Vanderbilt 13-6 as a 14-point favorite). Take the UNDER! 

4* Big 10 Over/Under Total Dominator on Nebraska/Indiana UNDER

This total is going to appear way too low for a lot of people, as these aren't exactly two teams you think about as defensive stoppers, especially Indiana. However, I think we are going to see a low-scoring grind it out type of game. 

Indiana comes into this game ranked 39th in the country in total offense, largely due to a passing attack that ranks 26th in the country at 293 ypg. However, if you look closer at the numbers, they have only passed for more than 285 yards once all season. That was a 496 yards performance against Wake Forest. Last week they only had 182 passing yards against Ohio State. Nebraska's got a strong secondary. The Cornhuskers have held 3 of their 5 opponents under 200 yards passing and the most they have allowed is 251. The other big key here with Nebraska's defense is they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and have no reason to be looking ahead with Purdue on deck. 

I just don't think this Indiana offense is as good as people think, but it's also not surprising that they aren't as good on that side of the ball. Indiana lost some serious talent from last year's team in quarterback Nate Sudfield (3,573 yards, 27 TDS) and running back Jordan Howard (1,213 yards, 6.2 yards/carry). The game that really stands out to me is their first game against FIU. They put up 34 points, but 16 of those came from the defense. The same FIU team that gave up 41 to Maryland and 53 to UCF. 

On the flip side of this, I have been impressed with Indiana's defense. For a team that isn't known for playing any defense, they are showing some good signs of changing things around on that side of the ball. They only gave up 383 yards of total offense last week on the road against a very good Ohio State offense. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 52.5% of their passes against them and the run defense has been decent. The key here is they should be able to gear up on the run against Nebraska, who is not a great passing team, plus they should also feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

At the same time, this Nebraska offense isn't anything special. They are only averaging 473 ypg despite playing some really bad defenses in Fresno State, Wyoming, Oregon and Illinois. Note that their opponents on average are allowing 440 ypg (198 ypg on the ground). The only legit defense they have faced is Northwestern and they only scored 24 points. 

I don't think either team gets to 30 points in this game and that should have them struggling to put up 50, which gives us around 7-points of value. Give me the UNDER! 

4* Big 12 Over/Under Total No Brainer on Oklahoma/Kansas St UNDER

A lot of people are going to see this total sitting under 60 points and instantly want to take the OVER. The perception is that Big 12 games are always high-scoring and we have seen Oklahoma play in some really high-scoring games this season. However, I think the value here is with the UNDER. 

Oklahoma's offense has been held in check this year by both Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners scored just 23 against the Cougars and 24 against the Buckeyes. In that game against Houston, they only had 17 points until the final minutes of the 4th when they added a garbage touchdown. While Oklahoma is balanced offensively, I think their passing game is set up by their ability to run the ball. Keep in mind Houston held them to just 70 yards rushing in by far their worst offensive showing of the season. Kansas State can take away the running game. The Wildcats rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.8 ypg and a mere 2.7 yards/carry. 

The other thing that Kansas State is going to do is try and help their defense by sustaining long-drives offensively. Something I believe they can do against an overrated Oklahoma defense. Let's also not forget the Sooners are in a prime spot for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back against rival Texas last week. Not to mention Oklahoma has quite a long list of injured players on the defensive side of the ball. 

Bill Synder has magical powers when it comes to getting his team to play above expectations when they are a big underdog. I really like the team he has here. I don't hate taking the points with K-State, but I do have some concerns with their offense being able to produce enough points. They are ranked 112th in the country in total offense with zero threat of a passing attack. I would much rather rely on their defense keeping this a low-scoring game than hoping the offense can score late to keep it within the number. Take the UNDER! 

4* Blue Jays/Indians ALCS Game 1 Total Annihilator on UNDER

I like the value we are getting here on the total, as I think Game 1 of the ALCS is going to be a low-scoring pitchers duel. Both of these teams swept their opponents in the division series an as a result have had to sit around and wait for this series to start. Toronto hasn't played since Sunday and Cleveland last played on Monday. Might not seem like a long layoff, but these guys are use to playing every day. I think both offenses will be off just a bit in this one. 

Even if they are locked in at the plate, chances are they will still struggle. The starting pitching matchup has Marco Estrada of the Blue Jays going up against Corey Kluber of the Indians. Both of these guys were sensational in their first playoff start of 2016. Estrada allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 8 1/3 innings and Kluber gave up just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. Keep in mind both were facing elite offenses. 

UNDER is 21-8 in Kluber's last 29 starts when he's working on 5 or 6 days of rest, 21-8 in the Blue Jays last 29 games as an underdog and 12-3-1 in Toronto's last 16 games against a right-handed starter. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Navy/Air Force UNDER

This total is going to have some people shaking their heads. Navy comes into this game averaging 33.7 ppg and Air Force is even better at 37.3 ppg, yet we have a total here under 50. It has everything to do with the style of play for these two teams. Both run an option oriented offense that is difficult for most other teams to prepare for, especially on a normal week of preparation. That advantage of the defense not knowing how to defend the option is lost in this matchup, as these two teams practice against it all year long.

To no surprise, we have consistently seen the books miss the mark on the total when these two teams play. In fact, each of the last 4 and 8 of the last 10 have gone UNDER the mark. Last year they combined for 44 points with Navy doing the heavy lifting in a 33-11 win. The thing to keep in mind, is the Midshipmen aren't nearly as explosive on offense this year after losing the best option quarterback to ever go through their program in Keenan Reynolds. In fact, Navy only had 1 returning starter on offense (did bring back 7 on defense). 

Not only do these two teams know how to stop the option, both come in with a pretty strong defense. Navy is only giving up 18.0 ppg and Air Force is allowing just 18.3 ppg. The other big key here is that due to both teams running on almost every play, the clock is constantly moving. That limits the possessions for both teams and really makes it tough for them to put up a lot of points. At the same time, we don't have to worry about either side throwing interceptions that can lead to quick scores. 

UNDER is 11-1 in Air Force's last 12 home games after outrushing each of their last 2 opponents by 125 or more yards and 25-9 in Navy's last 34 against excellent ball control teams, who average 32 or more minutes of possession per game. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Game of the Week on Blue Jays/Red Sox UNDER

I really like the value here on the UNDER in the total for Friday's AL East showdown between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. While Boston has clinched the AL East, they still are playing for the top seed in the AL, which gets them home field through the ALCS. Toronto is also in playoff mode, as they are tied with Baltimore for the two Wild Card spots, but just 1.5-games up on the Tigers and 2 on the Mariners. 

This is going to have a playoff feel to it and these type of games are usually low scoring. On top of that we have two quality starters on the mound with the wind blowing in around 15 mph from right field. Boston will send out Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello, who is 22-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 32 starts. He's 13-1 with a 2.88 ERA at home and owns a 2.31 ERA over his last 3 starts. Toronto counters with Marco Estrada, who has a 3.53 ERA overall, 3.48 ERA on the road and strong 2.33 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

UNDER is 16-5 in the Blue Jays 21 games as a road dog this season and 41-16 on the season after a game where their bullpen allowed no runs. UNDER is also 8-2-1 in the Red Sox last 11 against the AL East and 11-4-1 in Porcello's last 16 against a team that scored 2 or less last time out. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rays/White Sox UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with the total in tonight's AL showdown between the White Sox and Rays. Neither offense is going to be feeling great about themselves after last night's game, which Chicago won 1-0 with the two teams combining for a mere 8 hits. Not only do we have two of the better starters taking the mound for these two respective teams, but conditions also favor a low-scoring game. 

Winds are expected to be blowing in from left field at over 15 mph and only getting stronger as the game moves on. Temperatures are also expected to be in the low 60's, which will also keep the ball from carrying. That's going to let Tampa Bay's Chris Archer and Chicago's Jose Quintana go after hitters. 

Archer had a miserable first half of the season, but has looked a lot more like the Cy Young candidate that we expected to see all year of late. He comes in with a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Archer has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 straight starts and 11 of his last 12 overall. Quintana has been rock solid all season, as he comes in with a 3.21 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 31 starts. He's been especially good at home, where he's got a 2.76 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 13 starts. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Michigan St UNDER

It's not very often we see these low totals in today's college football, but it's for good reason in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between No. 11 Wisconsin and No. 8 Michigan State. Both of these teams are really good on the defensive side of the ball and have offenses built around running the football and controlling the time of possession to keep their defenses fresh. 

This one has a defensive battle written all over it, as I could easily see this being a 17-13 type of game. I know Michigan State put up 38 points last week against what most people perceived to be a very good Notre Dame team, but that Irish defense is not very good and had already given up a huge number to Texas. The Spartans also benefited in that game from 3 Notre Dame turnovers, two scoring drives of less than 40 yards. 

They simply aren't going to be able to move the ball with that kind of success against the Badgers. Wisconsin held LSU to just 14 points and 257 yards of total offense in their opener. The next week they held Akron to 10 points and 224 yards. Their last game against Georgia State, saw them allow 17 points but only 299 total yards. That's with an offense that has struggled to stay on the field. They matchup well with Michigan State, as the Spartans strenght is their running game and that's what Wisconsin's defense is built to stop. Almost no one is giving Wisconsin a chance in this game, which only adds more fuel to the fire for this Badgers defense. 

Michigan State's offense won't be the only ones struggling. The Spartans are alway strong defensively under Dantonio and this year looks to be no different. They really did a number on the Irish last week. I know Note Dame put up 28 points, but 21 of those came after the Spartans built up a comfortable 36-7 lead. Wisconsin is playing a backup quarterback and without their best player in running back Corey Clement. They are going to try and grind out the clock and play it safe on offense with a lot of runs and hope the defense gives them a chance to win this game late.

UNDER is 8-0 in the Badgers last 8 after 2 straight games where they held 34 or more minutes of possession and 24 or more first downs. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 after playing their last two games at home, 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 after they played a game with 450 or more total yards. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Giants/Padres UNDER 

I cashed in on the UNDER in last night's series finale between the Padres and Diamondbacks and will fire back with the UNDER in the series opener tonight between the Padres and Giants. The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last 6 games these two teams have played at PETCO and there's every reason to think this one will finish below the mark. 

The Giants will send out Jeff Samardzija, who has been throwing much better of late. He comes in with a 3.20 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last 3 starts. San Diego will send out Christian Friedrich, who was dominant in his last start at home, giving up just 2 hits with 10 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings. The bigger key here is that both of these offenses are struggling. San Francisco is hitting just .236 and scoring 3.1 runs/game over their last 7 and the Padres aren't much better. San Diego is hitting .200 and scoring 3.3 runs/game over their last 7. 

UNDER is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 road games against a left-handed starter, 4-0 in Samardzija's last 4 starts against a team with a losing record, 4-0 in the Padres last 4 home games against a right-handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 against the NL West and 7-0 in Friedrich's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. Add it up and that's a perfect 25-0 system. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I really like the value here on the UNDER in Wednesday's NL West matchup between the Diamondbacks and Padres. We have two very capable starters facing off in one of the biggest pitchers' parks in the big leagues. 

Arizona will send out Zach Greinke, who comes in off two strong outings against division rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles. Greinke has pitched well on the road this year, despite a 4.01 ERA, as he has a very good 1.176 WHIP in those 12 road starts. He's also owned the Padres in his career, posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in 15 career starts against them. San Diego will send out Luis Perdomo, who is coming off great start in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 1/3 innings at San Francisco. Perdomo has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks, both this season, and has a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. 

UNDER is 11-3-1 in Greinke's 15 career starts against the Padres. It's also 19-5 in Arizona's last 24 road games after they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 8-0 in San Diego's last 8 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total Annihilator on Seahawks/Rams OVER

This is going to come as a surprise to a lot of people, as your natural instinct is going to say the OVER is a bad play given what we just in Week 1. That's exactly where people get into trouble. You don't want to overreact to the first game of the season. I think we are catching a great number here to load up on the OVER.

I know the Rams offense couldn't have looked much worse against the 49ers on Monday Night Football, but no NFL team is going to be that bad on offense with a talent like Todd Gurley at running back. I'm not saying this offense is going to light up the scoreboard the rest of the season, but they will be a lot better than what we saw in Week 1. 

You also have to keep in mind that the majority of NFL teams play much better offensively at home than on the road. Not only is this game at home, but it's the first game in LA in over 20 years. I expect some big plays to take place and for Fisher to open up the playbook after keeping things pretty simple against San Francisco. 

Seattle's offense didn't look much better in their opener, as they scored just 12 points at home and that was with them scoring a touchdown late to take the lead. I think a lot of that had to do with Miami's defense being better than people realize. Keep in mind that after their bye week last year they put up at least 29 points in 7 of their last 8 games in the regular season. The Rams defense gets a lot of love because of all the 1st round picks they have in the front 7, but it's not all it's made out to be. The secondary is one of the worst in the league talent wise and I think Wilson is going to pick them apart. 

Keep in mind that these two teams played twice last year and both games finished with more than the total we have here. They combined for 65 in St Louis and 40 in Seattle. We also see that the OVER is 38-11 (78%) in the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 35.5 to 42 where you have a team (Seattle) that averaged more than 24 points/game. Take the OVER!