Sports Picks & Predictions

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/Heat UNDER

Total is too high here for this matchup. Brooklyn's not the same offensive team after losing their leading scorer in Caris LeVert and Miami's offense doesn't run the same without starting point guard Goran Dragic, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. 

Heat have failed to score 100 points in each of their last 2, including a mere 97 last time out at home to the Lakers, who aren't exactly a top notch defensive team. Add in the familiarity with these two teams having just played each other a week ago, I look for both offenses to struggle to get going. In large part because I think Miami's defense will show up in a big way here, but the offense will continue to struggle to score without Dragic. 

UNDER 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in this series. It's also 7-2 in Miami's last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 in the Nets last 10 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Chiefs/Rams MNF Vegas INSIDER on Chiefs/Rams UNDER

There's no denying that these are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL, but the books are on top of it. They know the public is going to bet the OVER no matter what number they put up and so they have set this thing ridiculously high. I just feel there's too much value at this number to not take a shot on the UNDER. 

Neither of these defenses have been very good, but I just feel there's too much talent on that Rams side of the ball for them to continue to struggle. As for the Chiefs, they have quietly been playing better on that side of the ball. Keep in mind they had a lot of young guys and new additions to that side of the ball, so it was going to take some time for them to gel. One thing is for, they can get after the quarterback. 

With the loss of Cooper Kupp, I think the Rams will be a little more run-heavy and the same could go for the Chiefs, as they are definitely aware of LA's struggles against the runs in recent games. That likely leads to some long drives. A few redzone stops be either defense and this thing could end up flying well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic OVER

These two teams will have no problem going over the total here, as both sides don't play much defense. New York comes in allowing 116.3 ppg on the road, where opponents are shooting 48% from the field and 37.4% from deep. It's very similar in Orlando, where the Magic are giving up 111 ppg at home, while letting opponents shoot 47.5% and 39% from deep. 

Last game for the Magic they combined for 147 at home against the Lakers. Each of New York's last two have seen 130+. Over is also 10-3 in Orlando's last 13 off a win by double-digits and 21-9 in the Knicks last 30 when they enter a contest having failed to cover 4 of 5 of their last 6. Take the OVER! 

3* OLE MISS/VANDY SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss/Vandy OVER

I don't think we are going to have any problem eclipsing the total in this one. Ole Miss is the ideal team for high-scoring games. They got a ton of talent offensively and play no defense. It's almost like they should be in the Big 12. 

The Rebels come in having allowed 31 or more in each of their last 4 games. On the road this season, Ole Miss is allowing 35.7 ppg and 509 ypg, with teams averaging 252 yards rushing and another 257 through the air. 

Vanderbilt is a team that has the potential to go off offensively. They had more than 460 yards last week at Missouri, but only 28 points to show for it. The Week before they hung 45 on Arkansas. They have scored 30+ in 4 games and will do so here. They also will give up 30+ in this one, as the only teams to slow down this Ole Miss offense are Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Four of the best defensive teams in the country. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Clippers UNDER

Books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Saturday's NBA action between the Clippers and Nets. LAC is coming off a big 3-game home stand where they went 3-0 with wins over the Bucks, Warriors and Spurs. Now they travel across the country for game against the Nets, who are without Caris LeVert and might be missing Hollis-Jefferson. 

UNDER has cashed 5 of the last 6 times that the Clippers have made the trip to Brooklyn. UNDER is also 25-12 in Brooklyn's last 37 as a home dog of 6 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 at home off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* Packers/Seahawks Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Packers UNDER

I get the high total with how some of these Thursday games have gone, but I just don't think we are going to come anywhere close to the total set by the books. While the Packers put up 31 points last week at home against the Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers was just 19 of 28 for 182 yards. That's 3 straight games where he's threw for 253 or less. When he's not on, this team struggles to score against top tier defenses. 

I'm not saying Green Bay won't score against Seattle, I just don't see them putting up 30+. As for the Seahawks, they put up 31 against the Rams for the 2nd time this season. Those are the only two games where they have topped 30 points. Packers have a legit defense that ranks 11th in total defense and should be able to slow down Russell Wilson here. 

UNDER is 13-5 in the Seahawks last 18 vs another team from the NFC, 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 30+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* Tulane/Houston NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/Houston OVER

I just don't think these two teams are going to have any problem eclipsing what looks to be a high total. Houston's star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, who is a sure-fire Top 5 pick in next year's NFL draft is out with a knee injury and the defense has completely fell apart with him sidelined.

He's missed the last 3 games and in those contests the Cougars have allowed 36 to South Florida, 45 to SMU and 59 to Temple. Every one of those saw at least 76 combined points and you have to go back to a Oct. 13 game against East Carolina to find the last contest that Houston didn't combine for more than the total here. 

Tulane has held 3 straight opponents under 20 points, but it's a bit misleading, as they gave up 450 yards last week to ECU and surrendered just 18 points. The previous week they gave up 442 to USF and they only finished with 15 points. Houston hasn't score less the 30 and have eclipsed 40 in all but one game this season. Take the OVER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Miami-OH/Northern Illinois UNDER

I just don't think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and these two will struggle to come close to the total set by the books. For starters, the game-time temperature is executed to be around 25-degrees and it will only get colder. It's just not as easy to score when it's that cold, as the passing game and big chunk plays are limited. 

For Northern Illinois this will be their final home game, so I expect a solid effort here on senior night. However, I do think some of the motivation here was lost with Western Michigan's loss to Ball State last night. With that defeat, the Huskies go from needing a win to lock up a spot in the MAC title to this game being more about pride. 

As for Miami, they kept their bowl hopes alive last week in a 30-28 win over Ohio and with a a win here they got a good shot to reach 6-6, as they host Ball State in the finale. Expect a big effort here from the RedHawks in a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls/Celtics UNDER

The Bulls have been an UNDER machine with the struggles they are having offensively combined with the effort they are giving on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 3-0 in Chicago's last 3, 6-1 in their last 7 and 9-3 in their last 12. 

Considering Boston comes in having lost 4 of 5 over a 5-game road trip with the only win against the Suns, I have to believe they give a big effort defensively to make sure they get back on track. As for the offense, they haven't been shooting well of late. They scored just 94 and shot 38.7% from the field last time out against the Blazers. Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 to 107 or less and if they can simply do that, this won't come close to the number set here. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total set by the books. It's hard to explain how the Rockets went from such an offensive juggernaut to one that is headed into the middle of November ranked 28th in the NBA at 102.7 ppg. They put up 115 at home last time out against the Pacers, but had gone 4 straight games prior to that where they failed to hit 100 (scored fewer than 90 twice). 

The Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring game against Milwaukee at home, where they lost 121-114. That's now 3 straight losses for Denver after their 9-1 start. I don't think their early success was a fluke and this should be a max effort spot defensively for the Nuggets to snap their skid. 

While the offense has been a disaster for Houston the defense has been really good. The Rockets are allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. They got no choice but to keep playing hard on that side of the ball as they try to dig themselves out of their poor start. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Kings OVER

Books have missed the mark here with the total in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Kings. I just think this is a big overreaction to what we have seen of late from both teams. San Antonio lost 88-95 at Miami and then won 96-89 at home against the Rockets in their last two. Both of those extremely low scoring. Same thing with Sacramento's last game, as they combined for just 187 in a 101-86 loss at home to the Lakers. 

I  look for both teams to get back on track offensively. Kings simply had a bad night at the office against LA. Sacramento has been one of the top offenses in the league early on. They are scoring 115.3 ppg and rank in the top half of the league in both effective field goal percentage and offensive efficiency. 

While the offense has been great, they are giving up 116.8 ppg and the Spurs come in averaging 114.7 ppg on the road. San Antonio is only giving up 107.9 ppg on the season, but are allowing 112.0 ppg away from home. Take the OVER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Hawks UNDER

There's just too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with this ridiculously high total. I know both of these teams are scoring at a decent clip and have had their struggles defensively, but I just don't see the pace being where it needs to be to eclipse this number. 

Lakers will be in the second game of a back-to-back set, as they played at Sacramento last night. Hawks had yesterday off, but this is their first game out west and will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.

LA won 101-86 over the Kings last night, holding a red-hot Sacramento offense to just 34.8% shooting. I think they are going to be a lot stronger defensively now that they got Tyson Chandler. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Laker's last 5 off a win and 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Falcons/Browns UNDER

The books have set the bar way too high for Sunday's showdown between Atlanta and Cleveland. The Falcons defense was a liability early on and the perception is that with their inability to stop opposing teams and their ability to score, they are destined for high-scoring games. 

Thing things is, Atlanta's defense has improved as we have progressed through he season. Last time out they went on the road and held the Redskins to a mere 14 points. They will also be up against a Browns offense that has undergone some major changes of late with the firing of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. 

Not only do I think Cleveland will struggle to score, but I like the Browns to make things difficult on Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense. Falcons just aren't the same on the road as they are at home. They come into this game averaging 28.5 ppg overall, but are only scoring 22.3 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 23-8 in the Browns last 31 home games off a home loss and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 home games after 2 or more losses. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks/Raptors UNDER

I think we could see a bit of a sluggish start here for Toronto. You have an earlier start time than normal with the 3:05 EST tip. You also have the Raptors having not played since Wednesday when they concluded a 4 game road trip in Sacramento. 

I also think with some fresh legs we could see Toronto get after it a little more defensively with this being a division game and the Knicks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. New York has scored 108 or less in 5 of their last 6 and average just 105 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 6-2 in Toronto's last 8 vs a team with a losing record, as well as 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER

This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg. 

I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go. 

UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Panthers/Steelers TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Panthers/Steelers UNDER

These are two of the better offenses in the NFL with big time playmakers at quarterback and I think we have seen the books inflate the total quite a bit knowing the public will want nothing to do with the UNDER in this matchup. 

I just think people are underestimating the talent on the defensive side of the ball. I know Pittsburgh's defense struggled early on this season, but they have held each of their last 4 opponents to 21 or fewer points, including a mere 17 points to the high-power Falcons offensive attack.

Carolina has scored 42 and 36 in their last two games, but both of those were at home, where they have played 5 of their 8 games so far. Panthers are only averaging 20.7 ppg on the road. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think it's got the pieces on that side of the ball to at least slow down this Pittsburgh attack. It's also getting to that time of the year where it gets a lot harder to score with less than ideal conditions. I'm not saying it's going to be 14-17, I just see more of a 24-20 type of game.

UNDER is a solid 25-11 in Carolina's last 36 off a division win by 10+ points and 8-1 in their last 9 road games on a grass surface. Take the UNDER! 

4* Thursday Night NCAAF Over/Under KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest/NC State UNDER

Too much value here with the UNDER to pass up. The books have inflated this number quite a bit with it being a prime time game and the public sure to come in on the OVER with how these teams have looked recently. 

Wake Forest combined for 91 at Louisville a couple weeks back and 65 last week with Syracuse. NC State's last two have seen them combine for 91 with Syracuse and 75 with FSU. 

I just don't think we are going to get enough scoring from both sides to eclipse the mark here. Wake Forest lost starting quarterback Sam Hartman and have had less than a handful of games to get red-shirt sophomore Jamie Newman ready for action. Newman has seen the field some, but hasn't exactly impressed. 

With how good NC State is against the run, I don't think Wake will be able to sustain enough drives to score the number of points needed to push this over. If the Demon Deacons don't score and the Wolfpack get up big, they will likely take their foot off the gas and look to play a lot of seniors, who maybe don't get to see the field a lot (senior night).

UNDER is also 13-3 in NC State's last 16 off a home conference win, 12-4 in their last 16 vs a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs teams who can't stop the run (allowing 200+ ypc). Take the UNDER! 

3* NHL Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Penguins/Capitals OVER

The OVER has cashed in 6 of the last 8 games for the Capitals. One was a push on a total of 6 and the other was a game where they combined for 5 with a total of 6.5. No reason to not expect a lot of goals in Washington games going forward and I just think there's a good chance these two teams combine for 6 or more tonight. 

Since they shutout Boston in their season opener, the Capitals have allowed multiple goals in every single game since. In their last 12 games they have allowed 4 or more goals 7 times and 3 times gave up at least 6. It's not just bad defense. They are scoring a bunch as well. Washington has scored at least 3 goals in 7 of their last 8.

Pittsburgh hasn't score much of late, but are a team we know can go off. Their defense has also been spotty of late, allowing 19 goals in their last 4 games. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Tues. Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER on Kent State/Buffalo UNDER

A lot of people are going to look and see that Buffalo is averaging 34.9 ppg and are fresh off a 51-point outburst against a good Miami, OH team and instantly want to take the OVER at this number, especially seeing that Kent State just played in a game against Bowling Green that saw a combined 63 points scored. 

What they will fail to notice is that the conditions here are going to be miserable. Wins are expected to be blowing at close to 30 mph and there's a chance it could rain on top of that. That's going to all but negate the passing games for both teams and really make it hard to just get first downs. 

Buffalo is just going to do whatever it takes to get the win and aren't going to be interested in keeping their starters in with a massive game on deck against Ohio (win and the lock up a spot in MAC Championship Game). Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Southeast TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Atlanta has played in 3 straight shootouts that have gone over the total, but I expect a much better defensive effort here on 2 days of rest. Hawks are also off a win and cover. UNDER is 21-5 in Atlanta's last 26 off a cover and 8-2 in their last 10 on 2 days of rest. 

I also think Atlanta's offense could struggle to reach their season average of 110.8 ppg. Charlotte's defense was on point last time out, holding the Cavs to just 94 points. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. 

UNDER is also a solid 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* Titans/Cowboys MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Titans/Cowboys UNDER

I'm going to side with the UNDER on Monday Night Football. Despite how both of these offensives have struggled at times, the public won't be able to help themselves with the OVER at this number. I just don't see these two getting to 40 points, as this has defensive battle written all over it. 

These are really just two ideal teams to back for a low-scoring game. It's no secret the Cowboys are a run-first team with Zeke. I think people are kinda expecting them to go off with the addition of Amari Cooper, but chances are it will take some time before Cooper's impact is really felt. He's got to learn the whole playbook. Tennessee has one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL (30th, 192.3 ypg) and while they are focus on running, they aren't great (17th, 107.9 ypg). 

Most importantly these two bad offenses will be up against two teams that are really playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Titans are 3rd in scoring defense (18.1 ppg) and 9th in total defense (338.7 ypg). Cowboys are 1st in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 3rd in total defense (313.7 ppg). Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK  on Bulls/Knicks UNDER

Hard to not like the value here with the UNDER at this price. Chicago's playing short-handed early on this season, as they are without starters Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, as well as key reserves Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine. In their last 6 games they have scored 107 or fewer points in 5 games. The only exception was against Golden State when the Warriors gave up 74 points in the 2nd half with the game way out of reach. 

New York is in a similar spot, as they are still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to play his first game. Rookie Kevin Knox and Courtney Lee are both out and now leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. may not be able to play, as he's dealing with a back injury. He's listed as questionable, but given this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back (played last night in Washington), have to think he will be given the night off. 

Just not enough offensive talent here to eclipse the total set here and both teams are playing hard defensively. UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 Knicks games when they are facing a team with a losing record and 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 off a SU loss. Take UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one.

Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep.

With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Spurs UNDER

These two teams could have a difficult time just getting to 200 points. While scoring is up for the league as a whole, the Magic haven't caught on board. There's teams out there scoring 120+ on a nightly basis. Orlando has hit 100 points just 3 times in 8 games. Their last 3 games they have scored, 91, 99 and 95. 

Spurs are always a great fundamental team and execute at a high level. They are really playing well defensively right now, as they are giving up just 99.8 ppg over their last 4. San Antonio will have no problem keeping this Magic offense in check. I'm willing to be the Spurs won't score enough to eclipse this mark.

UNDER is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 vs a team with a losing record 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 vs a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Rams UNDER

Most are just going to expect these two high-powered offenses to light up the scoreboard. I'm not saying this will be a defensive battle, but a total of 59 is way too high for this one. This isn't just another game. There's a good chance the No. 1 seed and home field in the NFC will be determined by who wins. 

I expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and we just don't usually see a shootout in the postseason. Not to mention, as good as these two offenses are, they both have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. 

These two teams played last year in late November and combined for just 46 (26-20) points with a total of 54. We might get a little more scoring with the game in New Orleans, but I think this ends closer to 50 than it does 60. Take the UNDER 59! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Wolves UNDER

I just think that given how good the Warriors offense has been early on and this being a nationally televised game on ESPN, we are seeing quite the inflated total for tonight's showdown between Golden State and Minnesota. 

Last time out the Timberwolves knocked off the Jazz 128-125 as a 7-point home dog, which is worth noting, as the UNDER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. Not to mention, there's no doubt the Timberwolves are going to give everything they got against the Warriors, regardless of the tension inside the locker room. 

UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 games against the Western Conference and 7-2-1 in their last 10 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these two franchises. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a big time effort here from Washington at home, as they try and get things going in the right direction after their 1-6 start. They still haven't won a game on their home court this season. You can count on them laying it all on the line here and it will certainly help that Dwight Howard is going to make his season debut. 

Big reason Washington has struggled is their defense and lack of rebounding, the two areas that Howard figures to impact the most. As for OKC and them not going off to push this over, this is a tough spot for the Thunder. They are coming off a 111-107 win at Charlotte last night, where they had to use a ton of energy rallying from a 19-point 2nd half deficit. I just think that effort and the travel will have them playing at a slower pace than normal.

UNDER is 31-13 in OKC's last 44 as a road dog, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 110 or more points in 3 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Hawks UNDER 

The Kings come into this one off a 107-99 win at Orlando as a 4.5-point dog, while Atlanta enters off an ugly 136-114 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point dog. Those two results set up a very profitable system on tonight's game going under the total. 

UNDER is 40-13 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off an upset win as a road dog (Kings) playing against a team off a blowout road loss by 20 or more points. 

It's also worth noting the Kings have won 4 straight as an underdog and are now 5-3 on the season, which sets up another profitable system, as the UNDER is 23-5 (82%) with a total of 200 or more with a team off 2 or more outright wins as a road dog and have a winning record on the season. Take the UNDER! 

3* Temple/UCF NCAAF PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple UNDER

I don't see any way these two teams combine for more than 60 points. These are two of the top defensive teams in the ACC. UCF is only giving up 19.2 ppg in conference play and the Owls are allowing just 14.2. 

The biggest key here is this Temple defense has the talent and speed to contain this high-powered UCF offense. The Owls are 25th in the country this season, giving up just 330 yards/game, while also holding teams to just 4.2 yards/carry. 

On top of that star quarterback McKenzie Milton is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss UCF's last game. While he likely plays, he might not pose near the threat running if it's not 100%. 

Temple may once again be without star running back Ryquell Armstead and the offense hasn't been the same the last two games without him. Even if he does return, it's unlikely the Owls will put up a big number on the road against this UCF defense. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER

Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same. 

Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points. 

76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Hornets UNDER

Books have set the total too high for tonight's NBA action that has the Hornets hosting the Thunder. Both these teams are playing well coming into this game and I expect big efforts from each side on the defensive end. 

OKC has played well defensively this year and will be extra-motivated to get their first road win of the season. Charlotte has also been a strong defensive team early on and will definitely be up for this one against Westbrook and company. 

UNDER is 30-13 in OKC's last 43 as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 vs a team with a winning record. 

There's also a great system in play. UNDER is 27-8 (77%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with a team off a home win by 10 or more against an opponent off a home win where they score at least 110 points. This system fits both of these teams! Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. 

Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. 

Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. 

Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NFL Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Eagles OVER

With the talent these two teams have on the defensive side of the ball and the way both offenses are struggling, most will expect a lower-scoring game. I just don't think that's going to be the case. More times than not, these London games end up being a lot higher-scoring than expected and there's no question that has a lot to do with the travel and players just not adjusting to the time change. 

Jacksonville's offense simply can't be any worse than it has the last two weeks, where they managed just 7-points in losses to the Cowboys and Texans. Blake Bortles has not played well during this stretch. Media and fans are calling for him to be benched for good and I think this entire Jaguars offense will rally around their quarterback and he will find a way to snap out of this funk. 

As for the Eagles offense, they have been moving the ball, but just have made a lot of careless turnovers and not finished off drives like you would expect. Carson Wentz is too good for this unit to to stay down for long.

OVER is 13-4 in the Jaguars last 17 off a game that went UNDER the total and is 12-2 in the Eagles last 14 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER

Great value here with the UNDER Saturday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs will host LeBron James and the Lakers. LA has been in a bunch of high-scoring games so far this season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 and all 5 have seen at least 235 points. That includes a ridiculous 143-142 Spurs win in LA on 10/22. 

I think having just played each other will have both teams much better prepared defensively, which should lead to a lot lower-scoring game. I also don't think the pace will be there for the Lakers, who are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

I know the Lakers have been allowing teams to shoot extremely well from the field, but the UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 after 3 straight games allowing teams to shoot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Arizona State/USC UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with the total they have set for Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between USC and Arizona State. This thing has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. 

Arizona State comes in averaging 27.4 ppg, but that's a misleading number, as they scored 49 against a bad UTSA team at home and 52 against Oregon State. Those are the only two games all season in which they have scored more than 21 points. 

USC's defense isn't as dominant as it has been in the past, but it should have no problem keeping the Sun Devils in check, especially at home. 

They key here is the Trojans offense also figures to be limited. Starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play, as he hasn't cleared the concussion protocol. Backup, Matt Fink is also not available with a rib injury.

Red-shirt freshman, Jack Sears, will start if Daniels can't go and he's not attempted a single pass at the collegiate level. USC will be a lot more simple with their offensive attack and try to keep Sears from having to do too much in his first start, which likely means a lot of running the football. 

UNDER is 7-0 in USC's last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards and 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 4-1 in Arizona State's last 5 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* World Series TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Red Sox/Dodgers UNDER

Absolutely love the UNDER in Game 3 of the World Series. After combining for 12 runs in Game 1, the two teams only managed 6 in Game 2 and I think we could see even less in Game 3. 

The Dodgers will send out Walker Buehler, who has been filthy at home this season. Buehler has made 13 starts at Dodgers Stadium and owns a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP. He's given up just 15 runs in nearly 81 innings of work. 

Boston will counter with Rick Porcello and all he did was go 11-3 with a solid 3.95 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 20 road starts. Thing to keep in mind is most of those were in AL parks, where the DH is used. With the series moving to LA, the DH is not in play and that makes this struggling Dodgers offense that much easier to slow down. It also takes one of the big bats away from Boston, as Porcello has to hit. 

Another thing to factor in here is we are going from one of the top hitter parks in the big league to one of the top pitching parks. The ball just don't carry well at all at Dodgers stadium at night, so don't expect to see many, if any, home runs with the talent on the mound. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Buehler's last 11 home starts and 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 interleague starts. Take the UDNER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Knicks UNDER

Public loves to back the OVER in games involving the Warriors and will be running to get their ticket on the OVER after Golden State just put up 144 points at home against the Wizards, which saw a combined score of 166. Even with that high-scoring game, the UNDER has cashed in 3 of the Warriors 5 games this season. 

I just don't think we are going to see 230 points between Golden State and New York. The Knicks just don't have the fire-power offensively and are coming off a game against Miami where they scored just 87 points on 36.3% shooting.

Everyone focuses on the offense of the Warriors, but this is a great defensive team. Opponents are only shooting 42.5% from the field against them. They are exceptional at defending the 3-pointer, as opponents are only hitting 29.3% from deep. 

UNDER is 19-9 in the Warriors last 28 after two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 125 or more and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* Dolphins/Texans TNF Total DESTROYER on Dolphins/Texans UNDER

We have seen a bunch of high-scoring games on Thursday Night Football so far this season and I think the public is catching on and the books have made the total here way too high. 

Neither of these teams have looked all that great offensively this year. Both are also really hurting with injuries right now on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't think these two offenses are healthy enough to create enough scoring for this to go over the mark. 

Miami is down starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and starting Brock Osweiler in his place. They also just lost wide out Albert Wilson, who had been their best playmaker this season. Fellow wide out Kenny Stills isn't exacted to play and DeVante Parker is questionable. I think they struggle to just get first downs going up against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. 

Houston has Deshaun Watson and everyone remembers the crazy numbers he put up in that short stretch during his rookie season. Watson hasn't been the same dynamic player this year and the offense for the Texans has been stuck in neutral. They have scored 22 or fewer points in all but one game this season and that was against a depleted Colts defense. I'm not saying Miami will shut them down, but I also expect more of the same struggles from Houston in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Thunder OVER

Boston has been such a good defense team under Brad Stevens and to no surprise they lead the league in defensive efficiency right out of the gate. The thing is, they have had two really good defensive efforts at home, holding the 76ers to 87 and the Magic to 93, but have allowed 113 (@ Toronto) and 101 (@ New York) in their two road games. 

Oklahoma City put up 120 points in Westbrook's first game back and this team is going to score a lot of points with him and George both healthy. While the offense should be great for the Thunder, the defense is still a work in progress. They also gave up 131 points and let the Kings shoot 54.9% from the field in Westbrook's first game back. 

Boston has a more than capable offense and I look for them to have no problem keeping pace offensively with OKC, who is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, despite Westbrook not playing in their first two games. Take the OVER! 

3* Thursday Night NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on App State/GA Southern OVER

I just think there's too much value here on the OVER with the low total in Thursday's huge Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. With the Mountaineers a 10-point favorite, the numbers here suggest the books see a final score of something like 28-17. 

Only once all season has Appalachian State failed to score at least 35 points. I just think this offense is too good for Georgia Southern to keep in check and could easily see them scoring 30+. I also think the Eagles are going to be able to put together multiple scoring drives and get into the 20s, especially with this game being played on their home field. 

Note that Georgia Southern comes into this game with the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country at 275.5 ypg. The last 11 times App St has faced a team that averts 200 or more rushing yards, the average score in those games have been 48.3. OVER is also 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 games played in the month of October. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor UNDER

Most people are expecting a shootout tonight between Baylor and West Virginia, but that's not going to be the case. West Virginia's offense was exposed in their last game against Iowa State, as they managed just 152 total and 9 first downs. 

That's the same ISU defense that 37 points and 519 yards to Oklahoma at home. Because Baylor gave up 66 on the road to the Sooners, I think people just assume West Virginia is going to score at will here. I don't think that's the case. The Mountaineers aren't close to Oklahoma's offense. 

Baylor's defense has been getting better and just held Texas to 23 points on the road in their last game. As for the Bears' offense, it's been potent at times, but for the most part it's struggled against better competition. I mean they only had 26 points at home against Kansas. West Virginia's defense isn't great, but it's a lot stronger at home than it is on the road. 

The other key here is both teams are coming off a bye, which I think a lot of people overlook when handicapping the total. There's a lot of tape out on both teams and the defenses for both teams are going to be well prepared for this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NHL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Canucks/Knights UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for tonight's NHL matchup that has Vegas hosting Vancouver. The Golden Knights struggled defensively early on, giving up 4 or more goals in 4 of their first 5 games. They have figured things out and have allowed just 2 goals in their last 3 games combined. 

Hard to not like that defense to continue to shine against a struggling Canucks offense that has scored 2 or fewer in 3 straight. UNDER is also 13-3 in Vancouver's last 16 road games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Knights last 4 vs the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE on Sixers/Pistons UNDER

With Ben Simmons doubtful to play for Philadelphia, I don't see these two teams coming close to the total set here by the books. Without Simmons running the point, the 76ers aren't going to get near as many easy looks, as he's one of the best passers in the game. 

We also saw this Philadelphia team struggle in their only other road game this season, scoring just 87 points at Boston. As for Detroit, they may be without big man Andre Drummond, who is scoring 17 ppg and 6.5 offensive rebounds. It's also worth noting that while the Pistons are averaging 110.5 ppg, the teams they have played are giving up on average 116.7 ppg, so they aren't as potent as you might think. 

These two teams both pick up the defensive intensity against quality opponents. UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NHL Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Coyotes OVER

Columbus and Arizona should have no problem eclipsing the total set by the books for tonight's game. Last time out the Coyotes combined for 8 goals in their loss at Winnipeg. I see a similar type of outcome here with the Blue Jackets. 

Columbus is averaging 3.8 goals/game over their last 5 and during this stretch are giving up 4.2 goals/game, for an average of 8 goals a game. 

OVER is 28-14 in Arizona's last 42 road games off a road loss by 2 or more goals. OVER is also 8-2 in the Blue Jackets last 10 after a game where they scored 2 or fewer goals. Take the OVER! 

3* NHL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Capitals UNDER

UNDER is the play here in Monday's NHL action between Washington and Vancouver. Books have set a big number on this game due to the fact that the Capitals have gone OVER the total in 5 of their 7 games and combined for at least 6 goals in 6 of those 7. 

The key here is the Canucks are a good defensive team. Vancouver has allowed 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER has cashed in each of the last 5 Canucks' games. Last time out they held Boston to just 1 goal in a 2-1 win. 

UNDER is 7-2 in Vancouver's last 9 after allowing 2 or fewer goals and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU win. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Capitals last 7 after they allowed 5 or more goals in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks OVER

I look for the Bucks and Knicks to have no problem cashing in the OVER in Monday's NBA action. This is not your same old Milwaukee team from previous years. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has put a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot and it's shown. 

The Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers and made 8.8 per game last year. While it's really early, in their first two games they have averaged 40 attempts and 15.5 made 3-pointers. They have combined for 225 against the Hornets and 119 against the Pacers, two good defensive teams. 

Now they face the a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in all 3 of their games and despite shooting just 42.4% from the field, New York is averaging 110.7 ppg. 

OVER is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35 off two straight games where they went over the total and 17-3 in their last 20 after two straight with a combined score of 215 or more. 

We also find a great system in play, as the OVER has gone 44-18 (71%) since 1996 in games where you have a total of 210 or more, where the road team is off a loss by 3-points or less against a team that scored 115 or more in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Bengals/Chiefs SNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Bengals/Chiefs UNDER

As difficult as it is to bet the UNDER in a game involving the Chiefs and that high-powered offense, there's simply too much value here on the UNDER at nearly 60 points to pass up. No question the books inflated this number after last week's Chiefs/Pats game combining for 83 points. 

I just don't think Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense is going to be scoring 30+ points in this game. Cincinnati managed just 21 points and 275 total yards last week against a bad Steelers defense and keep in mind they had just 14 points and 200 total yards before that late TD drive to take a brief 21-20 lead before giving up the game-winning score. 

As bad as the numbers are for the Chiefs defense, the big key here is how much better they have played at home. While they allowed 27 to the 49ers in their home opener, a lot of that had to do with the game being over at the half with KC up 35-10. There other home game was against the Jags and they shutout Jacksonville for 2+ quarters. 

The Chiefs are going to score, but I just don't see them scoring at the rated needed to push this over the mark. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Bengals last 10 road games after being outgained by 150+ yards last time out and 13-4 in the Chiefs last 17 home games against a bad defense team (allowing 350+ yards/game). Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here. 

Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright. 

Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%. 

I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total MASSACRE  on Rockets/Lakers UNDER

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in tonight's highly anticipated showdown between the Rockets and Lakers, which will mark the home debut of LeBron James in LA. The Rockets saw 243 combined points in their opener against the Pelicans, but it was New Orleans not Houston who lit up the scoreboard. 

The Lakers saw a 147 combined points in their opener against the Blazers, but they had just 119 to Portland's 128. I really liked the effort we got from LA and this is a team that really needs to play hard defensively to have a chance with their lack of 3-point shooting. With this being James' first home game, I think we get a max effort here from both sides on the defensive end, as each wants to avoid the 0-2 start. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Rockets last 8 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 off a loss. UNDER is also 11-1 in Houston's last 12 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF SUN BELT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this non-conference slate between Georgia Southern and New Mexico State. I think we are seeing a big number here because of how poorly the Aggies defense has played, as they come in giving up 43.7 ppg.

The key here is that Georgia Southern is a team that runs the option, which means they are going to put together a lot of long possessions and eat up the clock. I think New Mexico State can at least hold their own defensively against the run at home and last time out for the Eagles they managed just 15 points against a pretty bad Texas State defense. 

The other thing that I think will keep this thing UNDER the mark, is I don't see New Mexico State's offense being able to do much of anything in this one. Georgia Southern has really played well defensively this year, as they are giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Aggies aren't a good rushing team and their passing attack is going to be greatly limited in this one, as winds are expected to be blowing straight across the field at close to 20 mph. 

UNDER was 6-0 in New Mexico State's 6 home games over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half of the season and 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Georgia Southern's last 7 games and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Nebraska UNDER

Most are going to expect a high-scoring game here, but I think I don't see these two going past the mark set here. This is a must-win game for both sides. Nebraska is still searching for their first win of 2018, while the Golden Gophers are trying to snap a 3-game skid. 

I know the defensive numbers aren't great for the Cornhuskers, but while they ended up giving up 34 points to Northwestern, the Wildcats only had 14 going into the 4th quarter. Given how much this game means to Nebraska I expect a max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this Minnesota offense is certainly one they can contain. The Gophers are averaging just 19.3 ppg in Big Ten play and that's with them scoring 31 against Iowa. 

Minnesota's defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 3 games, but are much better than that and have simply played some high-powered offenses during this stretch. 

Another factor here that will get overlooked by most, is the conditions for this game should favor the defenses. It's going to be windy in Linclon with wends blowing anywhere from 15 to 20 mph. That's going to force both teams to run it more than they would like and could also play a role in special teams with field goals being that much tougher.

UNDER is also 13-2 in Nebraska's last 15 games as a favorite and 10-2 over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

The total here has been set way too high for tonight's game between the Warriors and Jazz. I think  we are getting the value, due to the fact that Utah gave up 117 points on the road to the Kings, but that was more of the Jazz knowing they didn't need a max effort on the defensive side of the ball to beat the likes of Sacramento. 

When Rudy Gobert has been in the lineup, this Utah team has been one of the top defensive teams in the league. There's no question we are going to get the very best they have to offer on that side of the ball against the defending champs. 

While the Warriors are definitely capable of going off, they only managed 108 points at home in their opener against OKC. What we did see from Golden State in their opener was some great defense, as they held the Thunder to just 36.3% shooting. I think we see a very similar outcome to that OKC game, where this comes in around 205-210 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* Air Force/UNLV MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on UNLV UNDER

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total they have set for Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and UNLV. With how bad these two teams are passing and how much they love to run the football, I just don't see enough possessions for these two get anywhere close to 60 points. 

The Falcons enter 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Needless to say this is going to be one of the more boring games to watch, but boring is great when you are betting the UNDER, especially with a total as high as this one. 

In order for these two teams to eclipse the total they need 57 points and to get to that mark they would have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter. Unless both teams just have turnover after turnover, I don't see that happening. In fact, I think these two will be lucky to get to 45 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NHL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Coyotes/Blackhawks UNDER

There's simply too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with the total set for 6.5. A big reason we are seeing such a high total is the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Blackhawks first 5 games, as all 5 have seen at least 7 goals scored. 

While Chicago has played in a bunch of shootouts, the Coyotes have scored a mere 4 goals in 5 games and 3 of those came in one contest, as they have been shutout 3 times. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Arizona's 5 games and I just think that given the Coyotes limitations on offense, we are going to see these two teams stay well below the mark set by the books. 

UNDER is 12-3-1 in Chicago's last 16 home games against  team with a road winning percentage less than 40% and 4-0 in the Coyotes last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Sixers OVER

This might seem like a big number after watching the 76ers offense manage just 87 points in their opener at Boston, but that Celtics defense is one of the best in the league. That performance isn't going to sit well with Philadelphia and I look for them to come out and lay it on the Bulls offensively at home. 

The key here is that while Chicago is missing a couple key players, they finally have some nice pieces in place to run the up-tempo offense that Hoiberg wants to play. The Bulls got some nice young talent and their only hope of winning is to outscore the opposition. I look for both teams easily eclipse 100 points and for this one to finish a lot closer to 230 than 220. 

In the last two seasons the OVER is 26-10 in the Bulls 36 games when they have been listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and the OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Opening Night Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Warriors UNDER

The public loves to bet the OVER in Warriors' games and with this being a prime time game that's going to get a ton of action, I think the books have inflated the number quite a bit, creating some big time value on the UNDER. 

Note that the UNDER has been a really strong play in this series. All 4 meetings last year went UNDER the posted total set by the books and two of the 4 failed to reach 200 combined points. Going back even further, the UNDER has cashed in 13 of the last 16 meetings, including a dominant 9-1 mark when they meet up at Golden State. 

UNDER is also 33-18 in OKC's last 51 as an underdog and we could see this thing stay well below the mark if Russell Westbrook doesn't suit up for the Thunder. Take the UNDER! 

4* 49ers/Packers MNF Total NO-BRAINER  on 49ers/Packers UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football, as I feel we are seeing an inflated number here with SF having gone OVER the total in 4 straight and the Packers having gone OVER the total in 4 of their first 5 games. 

These two teams are a lot better defensively than people realize. San Francisco is 12th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 348 ypg. The Packers are 4th, allowing a mere 314 ypg. Both teams rank in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. 

Both could also be missing several key players on the offensive side of the ball. Already down starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will also be without their best back in Matt Breida. They also have 3 starters on the offensive line questionable, as well as wide out Marquise Goodwin. Green Bay may be without two of their top wide outs in Randall Cobb and Jaire Alexander and Aaron Rodgers is playing at less than 100% after tweaking that left knee injury he suffered in Week 1 last week against the Lions. 

The game will also be played in less than ideal scoring conditions, as temps are expected to be just barely above freezing with a 10 mph wind. 

UNDER is also 26-3 (90%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (49ers) giving up 27+ ppg, who has allowed 25 or more in each of their last 4 games. Take the UNDER! 

5* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pats/Chiefs OVER

You don't see a ton of NFL totals approaching 60 points, but I got no problem here backing the OVER when the Chiefs visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. I honestly don't know that the books can set the total high enough for the offense fireworks that will be on display. 

While there's a few out there that aren't completely sold on Mahomes, this kid is the real deal. He had his worst game of the season last week against the Jaguars, failing to throw a single TD pass and throwing his first two interceptions of the season. He still threw for 313 yards and rushed for a score in the Chiefs convincing win over Jacksonville. Not a bad day against arguably the best defense in the NFL. 

Andy Reid's offenses have given the Patriots troubles in recent meetings with Alex Smith under center. I just don't think New England has the talent to contain Mahomes and all those weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Belichick loves to take away a teams strength or top playmaker, but that's hard to do with this Chiefs team, as they got top not skill players all over the field and Mahomes is not shy about spreading the ball around. He's thrown 14 touchdown passes to 9 different receivers. 

As for the Patriots offense, they are going to have try and keep pace and they should be able to do just that against a bad KC defense. While the Chiefs held the Jaguars to 14 points, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. They simply took advantage of a poor game by Jacksonville stater Blake Bortles. Brady isn't going to make those same mistakes. 

I think both teams will score at least 30 points, which would be more than enough to cash a winning ticket here. OVER is also 73-37 (66%) since 1983 when you have an undefeated road team off a home win by 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* Red Sox/Yankees Game 3 Total DESTROYER on Yankees UNDER

Big time value here with the UNDER in Game 3 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Red Sox. No question Yankee Stadium is more of a hitters park, but that will be negated some with temps expect in the low 60's and the win blowing in from right center at close to 10 mph. 

I also really like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eovaldi faced New York 3 times during the regular-season and didn't give up an earned run win 16 innings and allowed just 6 hits. 

The Yankees will counter with ace Luis Severino, who put last year's postseason struggles behind him with a dominant effort in the Wild Card game against the A's, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings. Severino now has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.62 ERA in 16 home starts. He was also dominant in his last start against Boston, holding the Red Sox to just 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Eagles OVER

I think we are getting great value here on the total, as I feel the books have set the bar too low for the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the quarterback position. I think we are seeing a low number because of how much respect these two defenses get. 

Minnesota's stop unit led the NFL last year in both scoring defense and total defense, while the Eagles defense carried them all the way to the Super Bowl title. A lot can change in one season and this Vikings defense is producing no where close to last year, which is why they are sitting at 1-2-1. They gave up 29 to Green Bay in Week 2, 27 at home to the Bills in Week 3 and 38 last week to the Rams. 

Wentz and the Eagles haven't taken off like people expected, but he's only going to keep getting better and I think this could be the week he goes off. Outside of the egg they laid against the Bills, Minnesota's offense has played well behind new quarterback Kirk Cousins. 

I think we get enough big plays out of Wentz and Cousins to push this one into the 50's. Take the OVER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bills OVER

These are two teams that have struggled offensively early and just don't have a ton of playmakers on that side of the ball. While I'm not expecting these two teams to get into a shootout, I think there's some great value here with the total for this game sitting under 40.

I don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to score 20 points. Tennessee has done that in 3 of their 4 games and the only exception was against an elite Buffalo defense. The Bills offense couldn't have looked much worse last week against Green Bay, but I look for them to get back on track at home.

Titans defense has been strong, but I think this is a big flat spot for Tennessee. Their last three games have come against the Texans, Jags and Eagles. They needed everything they had to win all 3 and all 3 wins came by exactly 3-points. Hard for them to get up for a team like the Bills and I think Buffalo takes full advantage.

OVER is 13-3 in the Bills last 16 home games, 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER!  

4* Colts/Patriots TNF Total NO-BRAINER on Colts/Patriots UNDER

Last week's Thursday night game between the Rams and Vikings saw a combined 69 points with the two teams nearly going OVER the total in the 1st half. While these Thursday games can be higher-scoring given teams are playing on short rest, I feel the number here and the injuries for both sides will keep this well below the mark. 

The Colts are dealing with massive injuries on the offensive line, which is going to put Andrew Luck and that offense behind the 8-ball from the start. On top of that they won't have starting running back Marlon Mack, wide out TY Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. 

New England will get back Julian Edelman and Gronk is expected to play after suffering an ankle injury last week, but he's likely to be playing at less than 100%. I know the Colts just gave up 37 last week to the Texans, but they have been really good defensively on the road, allowing just 9 points at Washington and 20 at Philadelphia. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Colts last 6 road games, 8-1 in their last 9 off a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 vs an AFC opponent. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Patriots last 10 vs the AFC, 8-3 in their last 11 after gaining more than 350 yards in the previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NL Wild Card Total ANNIHILATOR  on Cubs UNDER

Both of yesterday's tie-breaker games were low scoring and both the Cubs and Rockies offenses found it very difficult to get anything going. The Cubs managed just 3 hits against the Brewers and their lone run came on a solo shot by Rizzo. Colorado only had 4 hits against the Dodgers and two of those came in the 9th inning on solo shots by Arenado and Story with the Rockies trailing 5-0. 

Hard to see either of these offenses getting on track with the starting pitching matchup that has the Cubs Jon Lester up against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Lester was 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 starts and comes in with a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Freeland was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and enters with a 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts. 

You also have to factor in this being a winner take-all scenario, which means both teams are going to use their best relievers and won't hesitate to make a change to get the best matchups possible. We are also going to have less than ideal scoring conditions with the wind blowing slightly in from center and temps expected in the mid to low 60s. 

UNDER is 22-8 in the Rockies last 30 games vs a left-handed starter, 13-4 in their last 17 off a loss and 13-3 in Freeland's last 16 starts against a team that scored 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Cubs last 14 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 at home in the playoffs. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER

The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. 

The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. 

Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. 

The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. 

UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. 

We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER

Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines. 

However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total. 

Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite.

As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts. 

I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* MLB Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rangers UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Monday's MLB matchup between the Rangers and Angels. Both of these teams are just playing for pride and both are struggling at the plate in the stretch run.

LA his hitting an atrocious .185 as a team over their last 7 games. A stretch in which they have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. It hasn't been much better for Texas. The Rangers are hitting just .214 as a team over their last 7 and have been shutout 3 times in their last 6 games. 

Angels will give the rock to Felix Pena, who has flashed some potential and was absolutely dominant in his recent start against the Rangers on 9/12, allowing just 6 hits over 6 shutout innings. Adrian Sampson will take the mound for Texas and he's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his 2 starts this season. One of those came against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings of a 0-1 loss.

UNDER is 10-4 in Pena's last 14 starts and 6-2 in the Angels last 8 at home. UNDER is also 25-9-3 in the Rangers last 37 road games vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

4* MNF (PIT/TB) Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Steelers OVER

The books simply haven't set the bar high enough for this one. Scoring is up this year and we have two offenses that are clicking early against two defenses that haven't been up to par. 

The Steelers managed just 21 points in their opener against the Browns, but did have an impressive 472 total yards. They were doomed by 6 turnovers and keep in mind that game was played in less than ideal conditions. Week 2 they put up 37 points and 475 total yards in a game with KC that saw a combined score of 79 points. 

All the talk with the Bucs is centered around Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown for over 400 yards and 4 scores in each of their first two games. They put up 48 points in their Week 1 win on the road against the Saints and 27 last week against the Eagles, who have one of the best defenses in the league. 

All of the focus on the offense has people overlooking how bad Tampa Bays defense has played. The Bucs are giving up 30.5 ppg and 443.5 ypg. It doesn't figure to be any better against Roethlisber and the Steelers potent offense, especially with all the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball. 

As for Pittsburgh's defense, it just hasn't been the same since they lost Ryan Shazier a season ago. I could see them playing better this week with Joe Haden back from injury, but they aren't shutting down this Bucs offense on the road. Both teams figure to score early and often and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these two combined for 65+ points. Take the OVER! 

4* AL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox UNDER

These might be two of the best offenses in the game, but I don't see either of them having much success with tonight's pitching matchup. Boston will send out veteran David Price, while New York gives the ball to ace Luis Severino. 

Price has been on an absolute tear since July. He's 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA over his last 11 starts. Severino hit a bit of a rough patch, but he's still 17-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 30 starts and owns a 2.86 ERA in 14 home starts. He's fresh off a strong outing at Minnesota and I expect him to step up and deliver one of his better performances against a rival. 

UNDER is 6-2-1 in Price's last 9 starts and 5-0-1 in the Red Sox's last 6 vs a right-handed starter. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Yankees last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-1-1 in Severino's last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mets OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The fact that Noah Syndergaard is on the mound is keeping this number a lot lower than it should be. While Syndergaard is a top notch starter, he's allowed 8 runs on 20 hits and 7 walks in his last 2 starts against the Phillies. 

As for Philadelphia starter, Zack Eflin, he's lost his form down the stretch. Eflin owns an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also had a miserable time when matched up with the Mets, as he's 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 6 career starts against them. 

OVER is 5-1 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record, 5-1 in Efflin's last 6 starts against a division opponent and 3-0-1 in the Mets last 4 after giving up 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Florida UNDER

I just think the number here is way too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Florida and Colorado State. The Rams defense couldn't have looked much worse in their first two games, as they gave up 43 to Hawaii and 45 to Colorado. I think a lot of that had to do with just how good those two teams are offensively. 

Colorado State turned around and held Arkansas to just 27 points in a 34-27 outright win as a 14-point dog. They held the Razorbacks scoreless over the final 20+ minutes of that game. Florida put up 53 in their opener against Charleston Southern, but showed their true colors in a 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky. I like Dan Mullen and expect big things from him in Gainesville, but I'm just not a fan of Felipe Franks at quarterback and the fact that he led the team with 44 yards rushing against Kentucky is a huge concern. 

The key here is I think we are going to see a highly motivated Florida team on the defensive side of the ball off that embarrassing home loss. Colorado State has put up 34 twice against a couple of bad defenses in Hawaii and Arkansas, but only managed 13 against in-state rival Colorado. I just don't see how these teams combine for anywhere close to this number. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Memphis -

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Friday's non-conference slate that has Memphis hosting Georgia State. A lot of people are just going to assume that Memphis is going to light up the scoreboard against this Panthers team after they allowed 41 to NC State last week.

That was a very misleading score, as the Tigers added a couple of garbage touchdowns late in that game, one right after Georgia State failed to covert on 4th down and the other after a fumble where they had to go just 12 yards. The Wolfpack also got a field goal on the final play of the 2nd half. 

I also think people are a little too high on this Memphis offense because they put up 66 in the opener against a bad Mercer team. The offense couldn't make a play when it needed to against a pretty bad Navy defense last week and they simply aren't going to be as potent as they have the last couple of years after losing one of their all-time great quarterbacks in Riley Ferguson. 

UNDER has cashed in 24 of Georgia State's last 32 games, including 9 of their last 12 on the road and 9 of their last 12 in non-conference play. Take the UNDER! 

5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Indians UNDER

The Indians and Rays should have no problem going UNDER the mark set by the books. The Rays won the opener 6-5 on Monday and that's worth noting as the UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 games off a 1-run loss. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Indians last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs and 5-0-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5+ runs. 

UNDER is also 7-3 in the Rays last 10 when facing a team that just scored 5 or more runs and 4-1-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 6 starts. Glasnow comes in with a strong 3.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 3 home starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.429 WHIP in his lone career start against the Indians, which came back on Aug. 31st. Take the UNDER! 

3* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers OVER

The Reds and Dodgers should have no problem combining for double-digit runs in tonight's series opener. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is one of the top hitter parks in the league and we could see LA's high-powered offense eclipse this total on their own. 

The Dodgers are coming off a 9-run outburst in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies and will be up against the Reds Cody Reed, who has a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in 3 starts. He was rocked in his last outing at Pittsburgh, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings. 

LA will have lefty Alex Wood on the mound and while he's a decent pitcher, the Reds are locked in at the plate. They put up 25 runs over their final 3 games against the Padres. OVER is 10-4-1 in Cincinnati's last 15 home games vs a left-handed starter and 21-8-2 in their last 31 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup on Saturday when the Cyclones travel across the state to take on in-state rival Iowa. The Cyclones didn't even get to play a full quarter before their opener against South Dakota State was canceled because of weather. The Hawkeyes meanwhile overcame a sluggish start to defeat Northern Illinois 33-7. 

The Hawkeyes only had 3 points just about midway thru the 3rd quarter before they exploded for 30 in the final 23 minutes of regulation. Despite a talented quarterback in Nathan Stanley, this is still your same old Iowa offense that wants to ground and pound their way down the field. 

I think they are going to have a really tough time moving the ball against a Cyclones defense that has 6 starters back from a stop unit that only allowed 20.9 ppg in 2017. 

As for Iowa State and their offense, they caught a tough break not being able to work out the kinks against a FCS team in their opener. I think they too will struggle to score. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when it's a late kickoff like this. Last 5 times the Cyclones have visited Iowa City, they have failed to score more than 20 points in any game and were held to single-digits in 4 of 5 meetings. 

Iowa held a Northern Illinois team that many think are the favorites to win the MAC, to just 7 points and 211 total yards. That's pretty impressive given the Huskies returned 8 starters from a unit that averaged 28.9 ppg and 378 ypg last year. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Indians UNDER

I'm expecting a pitcher's duel Friday night in Toronto with Carlos Carrasco facing off against Marco Estrada and we are getting some exceptional value with the high total posted by the books. The Blue Jays figure to have a hard time getting anything going against Carrasco, who is 7-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 13 road starts. 

I know Estrada's numbers aren't for 2018, but this guy knows how to pitch and the Indians offense has been very inconsistent of late. Cleveland hasn't scored more than 3 runs in back-to-back games in almost 2 weeks, so I'm not all that concerned with them scoring 9 runs yesterday. 

UNDER is 9-3-2 in the Indians last 14 games against  team with a losing record, 10-4-3 in their las 17 vs a right-handed starter and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in Estrada's last 6 starts at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Labor Day Total DESTROYER on Virginia Tech/Florida State UNDER

I think a lot of people are going to look at how little these two teams have coming back defensively and be quick to back the OVER. While both FSU and Virginia Tech will lack experience on defense, these are two top notch programs that recruit extremely well. I expect both teams to be just fine defensively this year. 

I also think we have two solid defensive coordinators that will have their units ready to go with all the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Virginia Tech's Bud Foster has been doing this for ever and I really like new FSU defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett, who spent the last 3 years at Michigan State. 

UNDER is 35-17 in Virginia Tech's last 52 conference games and 20-7 in Florida State's last 27 vs ACC opponents. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Alabama OVER

I don't see anyway the final score between Alabama and Louisville stays UNDER 65 points. Other sharps couldn't agree more, as this total has grown quite a bit from the original number. 

Over the last 5 years, the Crimson Tide's lowest scoring average for a season is 35.1 ppg, which is pretty impressive given they have been primarily a running team. Last year they averaged 37.1 ppg and averaged 251 ypg on the ground and just 193 ypg through the air. 

Alabama is still going to run all over people, especially with the talent they have coming back at running back and how stacked they are on the offensive line. They are also going to exploit teams through the air behind sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I know it's up in the air whether Tua or Jalen Hurts will start, but I expect Tagovailoa to get most of the reps. Not to mention the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Louisville defense that returns just 4 starters from a unit that wasn't very good in 2017. 

Scoring on Alabama is never an easy task, as they routinely have one of the best defenses in the country. They will be strong again on that side of the ball, but they do only have 3 starters back. I also think Louisville's offense isn't getting near the respect they deserve because of the fact that they lost Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals have some legit playmakers at receiver and sophomore Juwan Pass is extremely talented (No. 7 recruit at his position coming out of high school). 

I see this being a shootout and that's been the case in recent years for Alabama in these neutral site games. The OVER is 21-8 in the Crimson Tide's last 29 games played on a neutral field. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Michigan/Notre Dame OVER

There's been plenty of talk going around about how good this Michigan defense is going to be in 2018, so the public is going to be drawn to playing the UNDER in their games, especially against a top tier team like Notre Dame, who is returning 9 starters from a defense that only gave up 21.5 ppg last year. 

While I'm not about to say that these two teams won't be as good as advertised on defense, I think it's got the total way to low given the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. In Jim Harbaugh's first 3 years at Michigan, the Wolverines have got average to below-average play out of the quarterback position. That's no longer going to be the case with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson now the starter. 

As for how the Notre Dame offense will be able to score against this Michigan defense. One of the toughest things for elite defenses is to defend mobile quarterbacks and the Irish have one of the best dual-threats in the country in Brandon Wimbush. They are also a lot more talented on the offensive line than people are giving them credit for after losing two 1st round draft picks. 

I think both teams are going to have some explosive plays offensively that lead to quick scores. I also think we could see some turnovers by both teams that lead to quick scores, which will ultimately push this OVER the mark. 

Keep in mind, despite the less than stellar QB play, the OVER is 24-14-1 in Michigan games since Harbaugh came to town. OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Wolverine's last 9 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in Notre Dame's last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UCLA OVER

If there's one thing we learned with Chip Kelly in his stint with the NFL, he's going to run his up-tempo offensive attack regardless of the talent on hand. Win or lose, UCLA is going to push the pace offensively this year. With a defense that doesn't have near the talent as year's past, it's going to ultimately lead to a lot of high-scoring games. 

So while this might seem like a high total for this matchup, I don't think it's anywhere close to what it should be. I look for UCLA and Cincinnati to fly over the mark here. 

One of the reasons this total isn't higher, is the fact that Cincinnati has really struggled offensively the past two seasons. The Bearcats averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2016 and barely improved to 20.9 ppg last year. However, I'm expecting big improvements in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and more than anything the UCLA defense is going to give up a ton of yards and points with how much they are going to be on the field. 

As a head coach at Oregon, the OVER went 32-15 when Kelly's Ducks were listed as the favorite and 19-5 at home. I expect more of the same now that he's a Bruin. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin/WKU OVER

I'm not sure what the books are thinking by setting the total this low, but I will gladly jump on the OVER. In Wisconsin's last 3 home openers, they have eclipsed the total set here on their own. The Badgers put up 58 on Miami (OH) in 2015, 54 two years ago against Akron and 59 last season against Utah State. 

I think there's a really good chance that trend continues. Wisconsin returns 9 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook, running back Jonathan Taylor (Heisman candidate) and all 5 starters on what many believe is the best unit in the country. WKU simply doesn't have the size or talent on defense to keep Wisconsin from doing whatever they want in this one. 

I also think we could see the Hilltoppers score a few more points than expected. While WKU only has 3 starters back on offense, they should actually be improved on that side of the ball, as last year's unit was a complete mess. They will also be up against an inexperienced Wisconsin defense, which could struggle early on with only 4 starters back from last year. Note that the Badgers have already lost two projected starters up front in defensive ends Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse/Western Michigan UNDER

I just don't see Friday's opener between Syracuse and Western Michigan coming anywhere close to the total set here by the books. There's a perception out there that the OVER is a strong play when it comes to games involving Syracuse. A lot of that has to do with how poor they have been defensively and the fact that they run an up-tempo offense. 

It's played a large part in the books routinely inflating the total in the Orange's games and as a result the UNDER has been the wise investment. In fact, the UNDER is 18-6 over the first two seasons with Babers as head coach. That includes an 11-3 UNDER mark in the first half of the season. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is perfect 7-0 going back over the years when Syracuse is listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 

There will definitely be some games in which Syracuse puts up a big number, but I don't think it will be against the Broncos. Western Michigan only gave up 29 ppg last year (25.9 ppg if you exclude overtime) despite being in the first year of a new system. I think this defense is going to come out and surprise some people in this matchup, as they should feed off a rowdy home crowd that will excited for the rare opportunity to host a Power 5 team.

I also don't see the Broncos lighting up the scoreboard. Western Michigan has some nice pieces coming back, but lose their All-American left tackle and star running back Javion Franklin, who rushed for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores. The Orange were a lot better than the 32.2 ppg they ended up allowing for the season, as they only allowed 24.8 ppg over the first 9 games and injuries were the big reason for the decline. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFLX Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bengals/Colts OVER

I know it's Week 4 of the preseason, which means just about every player who is expected to make a significant impact this season won't be playing. Because of this you get a lot of low totals and I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER in tonight's matchup between the Bengals and Colts. 

These two teams will turn around and play each other in their Week 1 opener next Sunday. I believe this is going to lead to both sides showing next to nothing in terms of schemes and how they will attack the other team. I expect to see very vanilla defenses being played by both sides, which in turn should lead to a little more offense than we typically see. Take the OVER! 

4* Sunday Night Baseball TOTAL DESTROYER  on Yankees UNDER

I look for both teams to struggle to get anything going offensively, making this an easy play on the UNDER at this high mark. 

New York will have their ace Luis Severino on the mound, who is 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 26 starts. Severino is also 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA in 7 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Andrew Cashner, who is coming off a strong start against the Yankees in his last outing, allowing just 3 earned runs in 7 innings of work. Cashner has allowed 3 or fewer and pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts.

UNDER is 22-10-2 in the Yankees last 34 road games vs a right-handed starter and 18-7 in their last 25 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Severino's lsat 7 starts when facing an opponent that just scored 2 runs or less. UNDER is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games vs a right-handed starter and 4-1-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 or less. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Opening Day Total DESTRUCTION  on Wyoming/New Mexico St OVER

These two teams should have no problem going over this extremely low total for college football. The public take on Wyoming is that they are going to be way down offensively after losing an NFL-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. The thing is, the Cowboys offense didn't produce anywhere close to their potential last year, as they went from averaging 35.9 ppg in 2016 to only putting up 23.5 ppg. 

What gets overlooked with the loss of Allen is the fact that Wyoming has 9 of their other 10 starters back. The new starter will be red-shirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who beat out the senior Nick Smith (has 2 career starts), which I think can only be viewed as a positive on Vander Waal's potential. 

New Mexico State wil have 9 starters back on a defense that gave up just 29.7 ppg, but they won't have their dynamic pass rusher, Cedric Wilson (team-high 8.5 sacks last year), as out the first two games. Starting free safety Ron LaForce, who had a 104 tackles last year is also questionable to play with a foot injury. 

On top of that, I think the defense is a bit overrated for the Aggies, as last year's numbers were greatly aided by playing in the Sun Belt (Independent in 2018) and they did give up 35+ in half of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Mountain West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawaii/Colorado State OVER

These two teams combined for 72 points in Colorado State's 51-21 win at Hawaii last year and have now gone OVER the total in each of their last 4 meetings. I know both teams don't have a lot coming back on the offensive side of the ball, but keep in mind the total last year was 66, so that's been taken into account with this number. 

While Colorado State has to replace starting quarterback Nick Stevens, as well as their to p rusher and 4 of their top 5 receivers, the Rams have averaged at least 30 ppg in each of the first 3 years under head coach Mike Bobo. The loss of Stevens was also eased by the addition of Washington grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels. 

Hawaii's offense would have been in good shape had Dru Brown not unexpectedly transferred to Oklahoma State, but I don't think it's going to be a massive drop off without him. The unit really can't be much worse than the one that only averaged 22.8 ppg last year. 

The other big key here is that while both offenses are working in new faces, neither of these teams have a lot coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Both stop units only have 5 starters back Colorado State is also working in a new defensive coordinator, so I definitely don't expect them to be sharp. 

All we need is for these two teams to average 2 touchdowns a quarter to secure a win and I think they have no problem doing that. Take the OVER!