Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER

This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. 

I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. 

There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Lafayette/Arkansas St Sun Belt DESTROYER on Lafayette UNDER

These weekday Sun Belt games are much lower-scoring than the overall numbers would suggest. So while we have two defenses that are near the bottom of the country in yards allowed, I expect this to go under the high total that's been set here. One of the reasons the defensive numbers are so bad for these teams is the big programs they play in non-conference. Lafayette played both Tulsa and Texas A&M and Arkansas State had to face both Nebraska and SMU. 

A prime example of how much lower-scoring these games can be is last week's contest with Lafayette against Texas State. The total was 55 and getting pounded by the public, yet the game finished with a final score of 24-7. The previous week the Ragin' Cajuns scored just 21 against Idaho. Arkansas State has allowed just 25 and 17 points in their two conference games. 

UNDER is 10-2-1 in Lafayette's last 13 conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-4-1 in Arkansas State's last 16 overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER

I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. 

The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz.

While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER

Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. 

Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. 

The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. 

Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Postseason TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER

I absolutely love the UNDER in tonight's NLCS Game 3 between the Cubs and Dodgers. Two outstanding pitchers will face off, as Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, while Los Angeles gives the rock to Yu Darvish. 

Hendricks is your modern day Greg Maddux, who relies on exceptional location and movement to attack hitters. He comes in with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and most importantly has owned the Dodgers. He's got a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Two of those coming in last year's NLCS, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. Darvis had his struggles early with LA, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.519 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

UNDER is 24-6-1 in Hendricks's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 playoff home games and 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* Giants/Broncos SNF Total NO BRAINER on Denver UNDER

This one shouldn't need a whole lot of explanation. Denver's defense is one of the best in the NFL and will be taking on a depleted New York offense that is without it's top three wideouts in Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Not to mention an offensive line that has been atrocious and zero threat of a running game. Eli Manning is going to have to work wonders here just to get first downs, as he's getting a fresh Denver defense off a bye and playing at home in a prime time game. 

While the offense figures to struggle to put points on the board, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Giants. Denver comes in averaging a modest 24.5 ppg, but have actually only scored more than 24 points once all season. They have managed just 16 in each of their last two games against the Bills and Raiders. 

UNDER is 30-16 in the Giants last 46 road games against AFC opponents and 8-1 in the Broncos last 9 games vs a team from the NFC. UNDER is also 23-8 in New York's last 31against strong defensive teams that are allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR  on Rams UNDER

Who would have thought these two teams would be headed into Week 6 with a winning record, as both teams come in at 3-2. This is a huge game for both sides, as the winner moves to 4-2 and in good shape of making the playoffs, while the loser falls to 3-3 and has a lot of work left to do. I expect the intensity level to be high and while the offenses have shined at times for both sides, I expect the defenses to be the story in this one. 

Jacksonville's defense has carried them to their strong start. Jacksonville comes in ranked 2nd in scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 ppg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 3rd in the league, allowing only 177.8 ypg. This Rams team is built more on their passing attack, even with the talent Todd Gurley in the backfield. 

Los Angeles' defense had struggled early under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but it was just a matter of time before they got it figured out. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas, where they held the Cowboys to just 6 points and continued last week against the Seahawks. A big reason for the turnaround was Phillips decision to move nose tackle Michael Brockers to defensive end to make way for rookie Tanzal Smart to take over at nose. Phillips also benched starting safety Maurice Alexander (since been released) in favor of rookie John Johnson. I fully expect this defense to continue to play well and the Jaguars are far from an explosive offensive team. 

UNDER is 35-17-1 in the Rams last 53 road games, 10-2 in their last 12 road games after the 1st month of the season and 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Redskins/49ers UNDER 

Late add here on the total in Sunday's early game between the 49ers and Redskins. I really like what I have seen from this Washington defense. They rank inside the Top 10 in total defense (311.3 ypg) and are 13th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg). Keep in mind they have given up two fumble return for TDs in the final minutes of two of their games to hurt that scoring average. You also can't overlook that they have played 4 of the better offensive teams in the Eagles, Raiders (w/ Carr), Rams and Chiefs. 

San Francisco is by far the worst offense they have faced in 2017. The 49ers have faced 2 defenses that I think are close to on par with the Redskins and that's the Panthers and Seahawks. They totaled just 12-points in the two games combined. They also had just 15 against the Cardinals. Just not enough fire-power for the 49ers. I also think they come out flat here offensively with this being their 3rd straight game on the road and Washington off a bye. 

Key here is that San Francisco's defense should be able to do enough here to keep Washington from putting up a huge number and pushing this over the mark. Note that the Redskins offense isn't quite as dynamic this year, as they have put a little more focus on ball control and running the football. Washington ranks 7th in rushing at 130 ypg. Last year they were 21st at 106 ypg. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Stanford OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and Oregon. I believe the reason this total is so low is the fact that the Ducks offense was a no show last week against Washington State without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon managed just 10 points and 277 total yards. 

Not a big surprise when you look back at it. The Cougars have an elite defense and took full advantage of the fact that Oregon had to start a true freshman in Braxton Burmeister. Last week backup Tayler Alie wasn't available, but he's good to go and wouldn't be shocked if he started. Either way, I expect Burmeister to play well if he gets the nod. 

That's because the Ducks will have a much easier time moving the ball on the ground against a struggling Stanford defense. This is not your typical Cardinal stop unit, as they come in ranked 91st against the run (182.0 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Oregon still ranks 19th in the country in rushing at 239.3 ypg and had scored at least 35 in each of their previous 5 games. 

It won't just be the Ducks scoring early and often, Stanford's offense has come to life with sophomore K.J. Costello getting more reps at quarterback. They also have the nation's best running back in Bryce Love, who comes into this game with 1,240 rushing yards, which is almost 250 more yards than the next best. While Oregon's defense is improved from last year, they have allowed 30+ to the likes of Nebraska, Arizona State and Washington State. Expect Stanford to do the same. 

OVER is 10-1-1 in Oregon's last 11 following a double-digit loss at home and 45-19-2 in their last 66 off a loss by more than 20. OVER is also 5-0 in the Cardinal's last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on North Texas UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Saturday's C-USA showdown between UTSA and North Texas. The Roadrunners joined C-USA in 2013 and these two teams have been in the same division. Each of the previous 4 meetings have not seen more than 61 points and I expect that trend to continue.

This is a big time game for the Mean Green, as most have labeled UTSA as the team to beat in the West. I expect a big time effort here from North Texas at home in this spot, especially with the game being played under the lights. 

The Roadrunners come in averaging 35.2 ppg, but most of the damage came against a couple of bad teams. They scored 51 on Southern and 44 against Texas State. They only managed 17 in their opener against Baylor and just 29 last week against Southern Miss. I think North Texas can keep them around that 30 point mark. 

As for UTSA's defense, it's been really good to start the season. In fact, the Roadrunners come in ranked 9th in the nation, giving up just 270 ypg and a mere 4.8 yards/play. It's by far the best defense the Mean Green have seen outside of Iowa, who they only managed 14 points against. 

UNDER is 15-5 in North Texas' last 20 games off a conference win by 10 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 when they come in having won two straight against conference opponents. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma UNDER

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in Saturday's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas. I just feel the total here has been inflated given the fact that Oklahoma has allowed 41 to Baylor and 38 to ISU in their last two games, as well as the fact that Texas is coming off a high-scoring game against Kansas State. Not to mention these two combined for 85 in last year's matchup. 

Each of the previous 3 meetings in the series all had a combined score of 57 or less and I think that's a lot closer to what the total should be in this one. I know these two teams have some big time weapons on offense, but a game of this magnitude almost always sides to the defense. Despite the poor showings of late, Oklahoma comes in ranked 44th in total defense and Texas is sitting at 42nd. 

This is still the same Sooners defense that held Ohio State's potent offense to just 16 points earlier this season. I think they went in with big heads against the Bears and Cyclones, but will be 100% locked in here, especially off that unthinkable upset loss at home to ISU. Keep Texas' offense wasn't great in their previous two games, scoring just 24 against USC and a mere 17 on the road against Iowa State. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Longhorns last 14 when coming into a game off a win and a perfect 7-0 the last two years after playing their previous two against conference opponents. UNDER is also 21-7 in Texas' last 28 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 games played on a neutral field. Take the UNDER! 

4* Eagles/Panthers TNF Total NO BRAINER on Panthers UNDER

While we have two good offenses run by two of the better QBs in the NFL, I think it will the defenses that dictate this one. I also feel the number on the total is inflated given that the Eagles have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 and the Panthers have went OVER in each of their last 3. A lot of that had to do with who these teams played. 

The Eagles are only giving up 19.8 ppg and the strength of their defense is stopping the run. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league, giving up just 62.8 ypg. Carolina is a team that would much rather run the ball, but haven't had a ton of success because of a shaky offensive line. I expect Cam to make some plays, but there's going to be a lot of drives that don't result in points. 

I see a similar story for the Eagles' offense, as they go up against a really talented Carolina defense that has really played well to start the season. The Panthers rank 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and are 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. 

UNDER is 39-17 in the Eagles last 56 games after a contest where they scored 30 or more. It's also 18-4 in the Panthers last 22 off a close road win by 3 points or less and 9-1 in their last 10 home games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards. Take the UNDER!

3* Yankees/Indians MLB Total DOMINATOR on Yankees UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total for Game 5 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Indians. Not only do we have a great starting pitching matchup with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Corey Kluber, but conditions for this contest will favor both of these starters. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s with winds up to 15 mph blowing straight in from right field. 

Sabathia started Game 2 in Cleveland and pitched well enough to win, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's now 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts and owns a strong 2.65 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kluber had a clunker in Game 2 opposing Sabathia, giving up 6 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but that only makes me like his chances of throwing well tonight that much more. Kluber is still 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 17 home starts. 

UNDER is 15-5-1 in Sabathia's last 21 starts against a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in Klubers last 7 home starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts on 4 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DOMINATOR' on Purdue UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Purdue. The Gophers were just upset at home by Maryland 31-24 for their first loss of the season. It was almost as if Minnesota didn't take the Terps seriously because they were down to a 3rd string QB that really struggled in their previous game. 

Fleck knows how to get the troops ready and he will have had the Gophers full attention in practice this week. I look for Minnesota to really come out strong on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind this defense had allowed a total of 24 points in their first 3 games combined. Purdue's offense is limited, totaling just 189 yards against the Wolverines. 

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. This team competed in a 7-point loss to Louisville, made easy work of Ohio and Missouri and had a lead on Michigan at the half before fading late. 

I look for the Boilermakers defense to really make it hard on the Gophers offense, which is pretty limited to start with. Minnesota has no real threat of a passing game, as they rank 100th in the country at a mere 187 ypg. While running the ball is their focus, they are just 58th in rushing at 180.8 ypg. Purdue's defense has had their struggles against the pass, but rank in the top 50 against the run, only giving up 132 ypg (allowed 238 ypg last year). They also have had two full weeks to prepare for Minnesota off their bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Sharp Money 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Penn State UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's Penn State/Northwestern matchup. The fact that both these teams played in a game last week that saw more than 53 points, will certainly have the public looking to back the OVER. 

The thing is, both of those games that these two teams played in were fortunate to eclipse 50 points. The Nittany Lions had 2 non-offensive touchdowns in a 28 point 1st quarter. They also had a stretch of close to 25 minutes of game time where they didn't score at all. They only had 370 total yards and 20 first downs. Keep in mind they only had 21 the previous week against Iowa. 

Northwestern really made life easy on the Badgers. Wisconsin had just one scoring drive where they had to go more than 50 yards, plus added a defensive touchdown. There was also 16 garbage points scored in the final 5 minutes. The Wildcats only finished that game with 244 total yards and it's not the first time they have struggled. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. 

Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). On the flip side of this, I look for Northwestern's defense to compete enough here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

5* American Athletic 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Memphis UNDER

This is just too many points for these two teams. UConn is coming of back-to-back games where they combined for at least 77 points, but that was against the likes of East Carolina and SMU, who aren't known for their defense. This still still the same offense that scored 7-points in the 1st half at home against Holy Cross and just 18 at Virginia. 

I know Memphis' has some poor numbers defensively, but a big reason for that is they have faced two big time offenses in UCLA and UCF. I'm not saying they will be able to shutdown this UConn offense, but I do think they can get off the field and make the Huskies work for every point they do get. 

As for the Connecticut defense, they will have their work cut out for them, but they should be a little better than normal at home in a prime time matchup like this, where they know a lot of people will be tuning in because it's one of just two college games on the schedule Friday. Memphis also has consistently shot themselves in the foot, as they have 9 turnovers in their first 4 games, including 4 last week in their first road game of the season. 

UNDER is 35-17 in the Tigers' last 52 road games against conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring fewer than 20 points. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Huskies last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record, 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last game and 18-8 in their last 26 off a loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday 'TOTAL ANNIHILATOR' on Pats UNDER

I like the value here with the total in Thursday Night Football's showdown between the Patriots and Buccaneers. All we have heard about coming into this game is how bad New England's defense has been playing.

It has been bad, but it's also forced the books to inflate this total tonight. This total is higher than 55 that the books set when the Patriots were playing at New Orleans. I just don't think Jameis Winston and the Bucs have the same offensive fire-power as Drew Brees and the Saints. 

At the same time, no one is better at figuring out the problem and getting it fixed than Bill Belichick. Look for the Patriots offense to help out the defense here and try to take a little more time off the clock when they have the ball.

I actually think the Bucs are going to have a similar strategy here, as they don't want to give the ball to Brady and that high-powered Patriots offense. Good news for Tampa is they get back their best back in Doug Martin and should be able to have some success on the ground in this one. 

I also expect an all out effort here by the Bucs defense, who desperately want to play well here at home in a prime time game. UNDER is 8-1 in the Pats last 9 games played on grass and is 4-1 in the Bucs last 5 games at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER  on Twins OVER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NFC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Rams UNDER

I think we are getting a drastically inflated total here. Dallas has the perception of being a high-scoring team and just scored 28 on the road on Monday Night Football against what most consider to be a good Cardinals defense. The Cowboys were fortunate to get to 28 points with just 273 total yards. Das Prescott only threw for 183, as he continues to struggle. This Dallas offense only had 19 in Week 1 against the Giants and 17 the week before against the Broncos. 

I know this Rams defense has looked bad to start the year, but there's a ton of the same players from last year's defense that was really good. Including arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the league in Aaron Donald. He's more than good enough to cause some problems for the Cowboys o-line. I also think it's only a matter of time before Wade Phillips get this unit playing up to it's potential. This could very well be the week, as they have had a few extra days of practice and preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 2. Keep in mind Dallas is on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football. That one day difference might not seem like much, but every day matters when it comes to recovering from an NFL game. 

While the offense is overvalued right now, the Dallas defense doesn't get near the respect they deserve. They get treated like one of the worst units in the league because they don't have any super stars the fans can relate to. They finished 14th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense last year. The Rams looked good offensively on prime time, but that was against the 49ers. They  didn't look nearly as good the previous week against Washington. I don't see them lighting up this defense on the road. Take the UNDER 48! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DESTROYER' on Iowa UNDER

This has the makings of a low-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to grind it out offensively with their running game and are stout on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan State comes in ranked 9th in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg and are 31st in rushing at 220.7 ypg. Iowa isn't ranked as high defensively or in the running game, but watching this team play that defensive front is very good and they got one of the top backs in the country behind a really good offensive line.

There's also a ton a familiarity between these two teams, as Mark Dantonio is in his 11th year with Michigan State and Kirk Ferentz is going on his 19th year at Iowa. Both teams run similar schemes as they have in the past and that's a big advantage for both defenses. The last time these two teams played was the 2015 Big Ten title game and the final score was 16-13. Only once in the last 7 seasons have these two combined for more than 44 points. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Hawkeyes last 35 as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 15-6 in their last 21 road games against a team that is allowing 310 or less yards/game. UNDER is also 14-5 in Michigan State's last 19 home games as a favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Big Ten 'TOTAL OF THE YEAR' Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER

I really like the value here with UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Northwestern and Wisconsin. These are two teams that take a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin features one of the elite units in the country.

The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in their loss at Duke, where they scored just 17 points and finished with 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. 

Northwestern's defense isn't on the same level as the Badgers and actually comes in giving up some big numbers against both the run and the pass, but came out with a different attitude after that blowout loss to the Blue Devils. Factor in they are coming off a bye and I like their chances of keeping what I feel is a pretty average Wisconsin in check. The Wildcats also have a history of not letting the Badgers get going offensively, as they have held them to 21 or fewer points each of the last 3 seasons. In the last 3 games, the highest combined total was 44 and I don't see them getting there this year. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Northwestern's last 10 games in the month of September, 8-1 in their last 9 off a home win and 11-3 in their last 14 off a cover. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in Wisconsin's last 9 games after they put together 2 straight dominant performances where they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on South Florida UNDER

I think the value here is clearly with the UNDER on this massive total for Saturday's action between East Carolina and South Florida. The Bulls have a high-powered offense that has scored 30+ in all 4 games this season and will be taking on a ECU defense that has allowed at least 34 in all 4 of their games, including 64 to Va Tech. 

I just don't see the Bulls being 100% focused for this one after a couple of prime time weekday games the last two weeks against Illinois and Temple. It's not like we haven't seen them come out flat before. Just look back to their opener when they trailed San Jose State 16-0 after 1 quarter. Add in this being a road game and early start time, I think we get a USF team that just goes through the motions. 

East Carolina figures to get for this game and we will need them to put up some kind of resistance here. I just don't think the offense will be able to do enough here to push this over the mark. All the attention goes to South Florida's offense, but the defense is playing lights out as well. The Bulls  rank 13th in the country, allowing just 263.8 ypg and are 3rd against the run (66 ypg). 

UNDER is 25-10-1 in the Bulls last 36 against a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in their last 26 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in East Carolina's last 15 conference games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total 'HEAVY HITTER' on Rice OVER

I think the books have really set the bar too low with the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Pittsburgh and Rice. The Panthers come in having scored just 14, 21 and 17 points over their last 3 games, but those came against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

Needless to say Pitt's offense is looking forward to this one, as they take on an Owls defense that is giving up 37.0 ppg and 472 ypg (88th). That's with half their games against UTEP and FIU, where they held them both to 14 or less. They gave up 62 in their opener against Stanford. While they only gave up 38 to Houston, that's only because the Cougars took their foot off the gas. Houston had 38 points with 4 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. 

I don't think it's out of the question that the Panthers cover this total on their own, but I do think there's a good chance here the Owls contribute to this total. Rice will be facing a Pitt defense that ranks 114th in the country, ranking outside the Top 100 against both the run and the pass. Even if Rice struggles early, they should be able to score late when it gets out of hand. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

4* Illinois/Nebraska Friday Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER

I'm expecting a very boring and low-scoring Big Ten affair Friday night between Nebraska and Illinois. Both of these teams are struggling offensively out of the gate. The Cornhuskers come in ranked 90th in the country in total offense at just 378.5 ypg. The Fighting Illini are even worst, as they come in 121st in total offense at 179.7 ypg (rank outside Top 100 in both rushing and passing). 

Nebraska was able to put up some points in their first two games against Arkansas State and Oregon, but a lot of that had to do with the lackluster defense on the other side and the pace of the game. Neither of these teams tonight are looking to push the tempo and I expect to see a lot more punts than drives that end in points. 

I know Illinois' defensive numbers aren't great, as they are 101st in total defense. The thing is, a lot of that came from that ugly loss to USF, who is one of the better teams in the country with some electric playmakers on offense. They held a decent Ball State offense to just 21 in their opener and a WKU offense to just 7 in game 2. Given Nebraska's problems offensively and this being a home night game, I think we see an inspired Illinois defense that delivers a solid performance. That should be more than enough to keep this below the mark. 

UNDER is 10-2 in Nebraska's last 12 conference games and 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 20 or less in their previous game. UNDER is also in Illinois' last 6 after giving up 40+ points, 14-5 in their last 19 at home and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* ISU/Texas Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Iowa State UNDER 

I think the value here is with the UNDER in Thursday's Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas. Each of the last two meetings in this series have been very low scoring. In 2015, last time they played at ISU, the two combined for 24 points. Last year in Texas they only managed to combine for 33. 

I do think it's going to be a little more high-scoring than each of those, but we got a lot of wiggle room with this total. For the two to eclipse this mark, they are going to have average roughly 16 points, which is basically 2 touchdowns and a field goal each period. I just don't think we see that much scoring here. 

Keep in mind that both of these teams were off last week, so each has had extra time to prepare for the opponent. That's typically a bigger edge for the defenses, as they really can get into the tendencies of each team. Add in the extra energy level with this being a prime time game on Thursday night in front of an ESPN audience and we should see both offenses struggle to get going. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Texas' last 10 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 against the Big 12 and 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Prime Time 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Iowa/Penn St UNDER

Late edition here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Iowa. These two teams played last year and combined for 55 and that was with the Nittany Lions hanging 41 on the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Penn State being able to have that same kind of success offensively against a good and fired up Iowa defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans in a rare night game. 

Iowa's defense is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground (97 ypg) and holding teams to a half-yard below their average. They also are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 57.4 % of their passes. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards/carry against the run and if you can slow down Iowa's rushing attack they really have a hard time sustaining drives. 

Iowa knows they have to avoid the big plays and make Penn State work for everything they get. We saw Pittsburgh hold them to just 312 yards a couple weeks back and I think this Hawkeyes defense is way better than the Panthers. I just see both teams having a hard time here getting the offense going and see this one finishing closer to 45 than 55. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Missouri/Auburn UNDER 

I really like the value here with Saturday's SEC cross matchup between Auburn and Missouri staying under the total. Missouri's offense turned some heads in their opener, which saw them hang 72 against Missouri St, but that proved to be just them taking advantage of a bad team. 

Since that huge offensive outburst, Missouri has totaled a mere 13 points at home to Auburn and 3 to Purdue (only 203 total yards). Now the Tigers go against the best defense they will have seen in Auburn, who is currently 2nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 201.7 ypg. That's no fluke either, as they held Clemson to just 14-points and 281 total yards. I just don't see any way that Missouri scores more than 14 on the road and wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score a point. 

If Missouri was able to get to 14, Auburn would have to score 47 for us to lose. I just don't see that happening. Auburn's highest output this year is 41 and last week they only managed 24 against Mercer. With a potentially huge game looming on deck at home against Miss St, I don't see Auburn running up the score either. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Auburn's last 16 games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 13-4 in Missouri's last 17 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 after 2 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

3* Lions/Giants MNF Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Giants/Lions OVER

I just think the books have set the total too low in a big overreaction to how bad the Giants offense looked in Week 1 against the Cowboys. Especially now the star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. is listed as probable. Having him on the field is going to really open up the offense for New York and I'm not buying the Lions defense. 

Detroit's defense wasn't great in Week 1 against the Cardinals and I just don't see them being able to keep the Giants from moving the ball and finishing off drives with touchdowns. While New York's defense is solid, they could be without a key piece in corner Janoris Jenkins, who was downgraded to questionable. 

History also suggest a high-scoring game here with NY, as the OVER is 17-8 in the Giants last 25 games after a game where they accumulated less than 250 total yards. Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Orioles/Yankees UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for Saturday's AL East clash between the Yankees and Orioles. New York will send out Jordan Montgomery, who has a strong 3.43 ERA in 4 career starts against Baltimore. The Orioles counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who has had similar success against New York with a 3.50 ERA in 8 starts. 

UNDER is a 31-14 in the Orioles last 45 games in the 2nd half of the season against a quality opponent that has a winning percentage of 54% to 62%. UNDER is also 19-5-2 in Baltimore's last 26 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on N Ill/Nebraska UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this one. Like a lot of the midwest teams, Nebraska and Northern Illinois are built on the running game. At least that's how they want to play. The Cornhuskers had to throw it 41 times vs Oregon and Tanner Lee was 19 of 41 with 4 picks. The Huskies had to throw it against BC and were just 16 of 39 passing.

I believe both will be able to at least move the chains on the ground, but will have to work for it. That's going to lead to a lot more time running off the clock between plays (less stoppage on first downs) and fewer possessions. Exactly what we are looking for when playing the UNDER. 

I also like this spot for Northern Illinois' defense, as they catch Nebraska in a letdown spot after that huge game against Oregon last week. Key here is the Huskies have the talent and coaching to make this a dogfight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The big concern with the under is the fact that Nebraska has allowed 36 to Arkansas and 42 to Oregon. I just don't think Northern Illinois is the kind of offense that can put up those kind of numbers. Arkansas St threw it 68 times for 415 yards and Oregon's talent and tempo are going to put up points against just about every defense. Take the UNDER! 

3* Texans/Bengals TNF Total 'NO BRAINER' on OVER

Given what we saw in Week 1, which was the Bengals getting shutout at home and the Texans managing just 9 at home against the Jags,  it's going to be extremely difficult for the public to take the OVER, and they rarely side with the UNDER. I believe we are seeing a classic Week 1 overreaction and a ton of value on this extremely low total for Thursday Night Football. 

Keep in mind that NFL players hate these Thursday night games and a big reason is because their bodies just don't have the time to recover. I believe that's a big reason why we see defenses struggle to play up to their potential in this spot. At the same time, both offenses are better than what they showed. 

Cincinnati's got some playmakers on offense and Dalton isn't going to throw 4 picks and have a fumble. Houston has Watt and Clowney, but the overall talent isn't great and they just lost a key piece in linebacker Brian Cushing. 

As for the Texans offense, I like their decision here to go with the rookie Watson. His ability to scramble is critical with how poor Houston's pass blocking was in the opener. He's also likely to make a couple rookie mistakes, which likely sets the Bengals up with some easy scoring opportunities. A simple 21-17 or 24-14 final would get us a winning ticket. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Week Night 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Boise St/New Mexico UNDER

The books have made a big mistake here with this total. I don't see near enough offense given the circumstance for this to eclipse the mark set by the books. What is going to get overlooked by a lot of people with Boise State is just how good their defense has played. They see they just allowed 47 to Washington State last week. However, 16 of those came in OT and they didn't give up a TD to a great Cougars offense until the 4th quarter. Not to mention the offense aided Wash St with an interception that was returned for a TD. 

That also happened in their opener against Troy, when another pick-six was thrown. Keep in mind they held a good Trojans offense to just 6 points and 215 total yards. Now they face a New Mexico team that went into the 4th quarter last week trailing their in-state rival 30-5. Sure they rallied to make it 28-30 and actually could have tied it had they converted a 2-pt play. I think that has a lot more to do with the Aggies letting their foot off the gas and it nearly biting them. 

Given how the Broncos just had one of the more tougher losses to swallow you will find all season, the fact that they will be constantly reminded of loss at home to New Mexico last time they were here and this is a nationally televised game (only one on the schedule) at home with new uniforms, I expect the defensive intensity to be there. 

The key here is the offense for Boise State doesn't figure to be scoring every time they touch the ball. Starting QB Brett Rypien is hurt and it looks like he won't play. That limits the playbook some. As long as we can avoid a bunch of non-offensive scores, I think this finishes closer to 45 than 60. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Afternoon Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on A's/Red Sox OVER

I'm expecting more than enough offense to finish well over the total in Thursday's afternoon matchup that has the Red Sox hosting the A's. It's going to be hard for either starter to put up great numbers in this one, as the wind is expected to be blowing out at close to 15 mph. 

Both of these offenses come into this one swinging the ball well. Oakland is averaging 7.4 runs and hitting .287 as a team with a .376 OBP. Boston isn't quite on that level, but aren't to far behind. The Red Sox are averaging 6.0 runs/game and hitting .282 as a team over their last 7.

On top of that, Boston's starter Drew Pomeranz, has struggled some of late with a 4.67 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 outings. As for A's starter Daniel Gossett, he's got a 517 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 9 road starts. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Georgia Tech/Tennessee UNDER

I don't think there will be enough offensive fireworks for these two teams to eclipse this total in Monday's Labor Day primetime matchup. Both teams have a lot of experience and talent back on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee returns 7 starters and several others who got playing time after they were hit hard with injuries on this side of the ball last year.

A lot of people are going to see they gave up 5.0 yard/carry and over 200 yards/game on the ground and think Georgia Tech is going to run all over them. I'm not buying it. If you look back at the first 5 games when Tennessee was 5-0 and were still relatively healthy, they played the run very well. You also can't ignore the fact that Georgia Tech has to replace talented starting QB Justin Thomas, who was one of the better passers in the Paul Johnson era. 

As for the Volunteers offense, they too have to replace a talented starting QB in Joshua Dobbs, as well as two really gifted backs in Kamara and Hurd and star wide out Malone. Not to mention they are learning a new system under first year OC Larry Scott. 

We know Georgia Tech is going to run the football and I expect Tennessee to do the same behind one of the more talented o-lines in the country. That's ideal for a low scoring game, as each team will eat up clock and possessions will be limited. Take the UNDER! 

3* MLB Over/Under 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Orioles UNDER 9.5

The books have made a big mistake setting tonight's total in the AL East showdown between the Orioles and Blue Jays. These two teams managed to combine for a single run in Baltimores 1-0 win in 13 innings last night. I look for both offenses to come out sluggish in this one. Conditions are also not ideal for scoring, as the temp is expected to be in the mid to low 60's with the wind blowing in from right center. 

Last night's shutout loss marked the 3rd time in the last 4 games and 6th in the last 9 that the Blue Jays managed to score 1 or fewer runs. That's a great sign that the Orioles Wade Miley can keep this offense in check. Miley does come in throwing the ball well, as he's got a 3.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also pitched well against the Blue Jays of late, having not allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts against them. With 3 of those coming this season. 

Toronto counters with Marcus Stroman, who has rock solid for them all season. He's got 11 wins in 27 starts and owns a 3.11 ERA on the year. He's also pitched well against the opposing team, as he's allowed just 2 runs in his last 13 2/3 innings against the Orioles. Take the UNDER!

3* Situational Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Troy/Boise St OVER 

I believe the real value in Saturday's clash between the Troy Trojans and the Boise State Broncos is on it going over the total.

Boise State averaged 33.8 ppg and 473 ypg last year and that’s one of their lower totals in recent seasons. I look for an uptick offensively in 2017. The offense will be firmly in the hands of junior starting QB Brett Rypien. A two time 1st-Team All-MWC signal caller with a 44-16 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

He’s going to have to do more with the loss of star running back Jeremy McNichols (314 attempts, 1,709 yards, 23 TDs). That means bigger chunk plays and series that don't eat up a ton of clock.

I'm not concerned with the fact that Troy held opponents to just 22.1 ppg last year. That’s aided by playing in the Sun Belt. While they return 6 starters on defense, they have to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. They are going to take a step back, plus you have to factor in playing on the road in a tough environment. 

The key here is that I fully expect the Trojans offense to hold their own against the Broncos. Troy likes to play with some pace. Not a big surprise given their head coach use to be the OC at Texas Tech. They put up 33.7 ppg and 430 ypg last year, including 24 points and 386 yards against a dominant Clemson defense.

Boise State always fields a respectable defense, but with only 4 starters back in 2017, this figured to be one of their weaker units. They also haven’t been as good since former head coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Keep in mind that this is now the 4th year removed from Petersen and his recruits.

OVER is 40-15 in the Trojans last 55 non-conference games and 22-9 in their last 31 road games in the month of September. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on South Carolina UNDER

I just feel the books have set the total too high for this non-conference showdown between two Power 5 programs. South Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, but this is a team that doesn't figure to push the tempo and only averaged 20.8 ppg last year and that was with them scoring 34 against UMass and 44 against Western Carolina. They managed 14 or fewer points in 7 games. 

I think the Gamecocks will struggle to score here against an NC State team that should have one of the best defenses in the country. They certainly have one of the most talented defensive lines, which is going to give even the best offensive lines trouble and SC is far from elite upfront. 

The Gamecocks were respectable on the defensive side of the ball and I look for them to give NC State some trouble here. The Wolfpack are more conventional on offense, not trying to play at a ridiculous pace and air it out on every play. They only average 27 ppg last year, scoring 20 or fewer in 6 games. They get a lot back but I don't see them exploding against a SEC defense. Take the UNDER!

5*  NCAAF Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Total Top Play on Memphis UNDER 67

The forecast for this game is calling for heavy rain throughout the contest with winds blowing at close to 20 mph. The conditions simply aren't going to allow for either of these teams to open up their playbook. Each is going to have to run the football a lot more than they would like. I also think it keeps the heavy favorite in Memphis from worrying about running up the score to look good, but instead focusing on just getting out this game without any of their key players suffering an injury, especially given they have a big road game next week at UCF to open up AAC play. 

The biggest key here is that Memphis doesn't figure to be throwing the ball over the field, which would have likely led to a lot of quick scores. They are still going to have plenty of success on the ground, but that's going to keep the clock moving. As for the Warhawks, they could have a really hard time generating points. Memphis had some lackluster defensive efforts last year against the better teams they played, but were strong against the bottom feeders. While they allowed 455 ypg, they gave up fewer than 315 yards in 6 of their 13 games. ULM is one of those teams they can handle and the conditions here will only make that much harder for the Warhawks. Take the UNDER! 

*Play is still recommended at current line*

3* BONUS Play on Cubs UNDER 7.5

I'm throwing this one out a little later than the rest because the wind report is showing it coming straight in from center at close to 15mph for the entire game.  I think hitters are going to have a tough time getting anything to leave the park tonight and with two solid pitchers throwing the UNDER looks like a solid play.

5* MLB Over/Under 'TOTAL OF THE WEEK' on Rays/Cardinals OVER 

This looks like a solid pitching matchup with Lance Lynn against Chris Archer, but my money here is on these two offenses combining for at least 9 runs. Archer is not near the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. He's got a 4.26 ERA in 13 road starts.

Lynn has been solid at home, but did just give up 4 runs at home to the Padres and the Rays come in swinging a hot bat. Tampa has scored 6 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 and have combined for 11 runs on 22 hits in the first two games of this series. 

OVER is a perfect 10-0 in the Cardinals 10 games this season against AL teams that are scoring 4.4 or less runs/game, 16-3 in their last 19 interleague games overall and 7-0 in Archer's last 7 road starts after allowing 1 or less runs in his previous outing. Take the OVER! 

5* MLB Situational 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Red Sox/Indians UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total and it staying UNDER the mark in Monday's big AL showdown between the Red Sox and Indians. While both of these teams have a comfortable 5-game lead in their respective divisions, there is just 2.5-games separating these two teams in the standings with Boston currently holding that edge. If both go on to win their divisions, the team with the better record will get home field advantage when they meet in the postseason. 

I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here at Progressive Field and I like the pitching matchup in this one. Boston sends outs Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with Mike Clevinger, who comes in with a strong 3.37 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 15 starts this season. 

UNDER is 15-4 in Rodriguez's last 19 starts in the 2nd half of the season against a team who strikes out 7 or more times/game and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as an underdog. UNDER is also 28-14 in the Indians last 42 against a left-handed starter and 30-17 in their last 47 against a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Pirates/Tigers UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER given the high total in Wednesday's showdown between the Tigers and Pirates. Detroit will send out veteran ace Justin Verlander, who has a solid 3.29 ERA in 11 home starts and has been dealing of late with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova, who has struggled of late, but still comes in with a 3.66 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 22 starts on the season. Nova's 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts can be attributed to a bad outing at Coors Field, which is going to happen. Given how well Pittsburgh has been playing and The Tigers offense struggling right now (3 or less runs in 4 straight game), I think he performs well in this outing. Take the UNDER! 

5* American League 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Yankees/Indians UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Thursday's series opener between the Yankees and Indians. This is a big series for both sides. New York is 1-game back of Boston in the AL East and Cleveland is only 2.5-games ahead of the Royals in the AL Central. A high intensity level and two big time starters should make scoring difficult to come by in what will be an usually mild day in August as temps are expected in the high 70's.

The Indians send out Corey Kluber, who is 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 11 starts. Yankees counter with the newly acquired Sonny Gray, who has posted a 1.37 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last 6 starts. That includes a recent outing against Cleveland, where he limited the Indians to just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cardinals/Brewers UNDER

I like the value here with today's total in the series opener between the Brewers and Cardinals. This is a huge series for both teams. Miwaukee's recent struggles has seen them go from a 5.5-game lead in the NL Central to trailing the Cubs by 2.5-games. St. Louis is quietly lurking just 4.5-games back of Chicago. 

I expect both teams to do whatever it takes to secure a win in the series opener and we got two above-average starters going in this one. St Louis sends out Carlos Martinez, who is considered the ace of their staff and owns a 2.19 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee counters with Jimmy Nelson, who has a 3.38 ERA in 21 starts overall and a sensational 2.39 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 11 home starts. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB Vegas Insider 'TOP PLAY' on Mets/Mariners UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's series finale between the Mets and Mariners. Seattle will send out one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in James Paxton, who in his last two starts (against the Astros and Red Sox) has allowed a mere 1 run on 10 hits with 17 strikeouts to just 1 walk in 14 innings of work. He's now 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 17 starts overall with a 2.36 ERA in 10 home starts and 1.35 ERA in his last 3 outings. New York counters here with Seth Lugo, who has a strong 3.26 ERA in his last 3 starts and should be able to limit a Mariners offense that is hitting a mere .228 was a team over their last 7 games. Take the UNDER!

5* AL Central 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on White Sox/Indians UNDER

Runs should be extremely hard to come by for both teams on Saturday. No explanation needed for why it will be difficult for the White Sox, as they go up against former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and have been awful offensively the last couple of weeks.

The key here is how well Chicago starter Miguel Gonzalez has been throwing. Gonzalez returned to the rotation on 7/18 (prev start 6/14) and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits against a loaded Dodgers lineup. In his next start he held the Cubs to 1 run on 7 hits in 7 1/3 innings. Going into Friday one of only two losses for the Cubs since the break. I expect him to match Kluber and keep this a low scoring game. Take UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cubs/Brewers UNDER

This is a big time series for July as you have two teams fighting for the NL Central title going at in Milwaukee this weekend. I expect all 3 games to have a playoff like feel, as each one is so important. That has me leaning heavily towards the UNDER with tonight's high total, as we have two strong starters facing off.

Chicago will send out newly acquired starter Jose Quintana, who has been excellent in his first two starts with the Cubs, allowing just 3 runs on 8 hits with 19 strkeouts in 13 innings of work. Milwaukee counters with Brent Suter, who has made just 5 starts, but pitched very well in those starts, posting a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Late Night Total 'MASSACRE'on Pirates/Giants UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Pirates and Giants on Monday. Both of these offenses are below-average, especially San Fran, which is ahead of only the Phillies in NL runs scored. Pittsburgh's offense has been okay of late, but far from explosive and are expected to be without a big piece in outfield Gregory Polanco, who has been one of the top offensive culprits of late.

That's a promising sign for Giants starter Matt Cain, who owns a respectable 3.00 ERA in 9 home starts and is coming off a strong outing at home against the Indians. Pirates counter with Gerrit Cole, who has been dealing of late with 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cubs/Braves OVER

I've been on the Cubs during their great run out of the break. While I would lean Chicago again, I think the real value in this game is the OVER. Atlanta's SunTrust Park is a very hitter-friendly park and I expect both offenses to provide plenty of fire-power here. 

Cubs will send out veteran John Lackey, who is in danger with getting demoted to the bullpen, as he's 5-9 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 17 starts and has given up a staggering 24 home runs. Atlanta scored just 3 runs last night, but are still averaging 6.3 runs/game over their last 7. Chicago attack has been equally impressive, as they put up 31 runs in their 4 games out of the break. They will face Atlanta rookie left-handed starter Sean Newcomb, who has struggled against top level teams. Note Chicago is averaging 6.2 runs/game and hitting .280 as a team vs lefty starters this season. Take OVER!

4* MLB Afternoon Total Annihilator on Mets/Cardinals OVER

These two teams combined for 11 runs in the series opener last night and it could have been a lot more, as the two combined to hit 6 home runs, just one shy of the record at Busch Stadium. Conditions should be ideal for more long balls today and the starting pitching matchup also figures to aid in a high-scoring game. Keep in mind yesterday's game featured arguably the best starter right now for both teams in deGrom and Martinez.

St Louis sends out veteran Adam Wainwright, who has a 5.48 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in 17 starts and fresh off an outing at home against the Marlins where he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings. It's been even worse of late for Mets starter Zack Wheeler, who has an atrocious 18.39 ERA and 2.861 WHIP in his last 3 starts, pushing his ERA to 5.01 on the season. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Late Night Total Annihilator on A's/Mariners UNDER

Runs figure to be hard to come by Friday night when the Mariners host the A's. Two of baseball's rising young starters will square off as Seattle's James Paxton takes on Oakland's Sean Manaea. Paxton got off to an incredible start, but had to take a short trip to the DL. He struggled in his first few starts back, but has returned to his old form in his last 2 starts and is primed for a great outing here against a sub-par A's offense. Manea has a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and has been extremely consistent of late, allowing 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts. Only two expections were against the potent offenses of the Astros and Yankees. Seattle isn't hitting well right now. They have a mere .248 batting average over their last 7 and have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of their last 11. Take the UNDER!

5* Pre All-Star Break TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Dbacks/Dodgers UNDER

While not quite a playoff atmosphere, this is a big game given where these two are sitting in the standings in the NL West title race. Both teams are going to do whatever it takes to get a win and with the pitching matchup going today, runs are going to be hard to come by.

Arizona sends out Zack Godley, who has a strong 2.67 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 10 starts and has been just as good on the road with a 2.84 ERA in 5 starts. LA counters with Alex Wood, who has been lights out in 2017. Wood is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 12 starts.

UNDER is 7-1 in Woods last 8 starts against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 in this situation at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Godley's last 6 after a Quality Start and 6-2-1 in Arizona's last 9 against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER!

5* AL East Total of the Month on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER

I got no problem backing the OVER with this big total in Thursday's AL East clash betwen the Orioles and Blue Jays. These two offenses are poised to breakout after each struggled to get anything going in the first two games of the series. I believe there's a chance Toronto could get this total on their own. Baltimore will send out Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 8.27 ERA and 1.796 WHIP in 10 starts. In his last 3 starts, the opposing team has scored 34 runs. Not a big surprise that the OVER is 8-2 in Jimenez's 10 starts. It's also a perfect 5-0 in 5 starts against division opponents. 

Toronto will counter with J.A. Happ, who has pitched better of late, but still owns a 4.58 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 4 home starts and is 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA when he starts a night game. It's also worth noting that the OVER is 23-13 in the Orioles 36 games this season after a loss and 7-1-1 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the OVER!

5* Interleague Total of the Month on Royals/Giants UNDER

I really like the value here the total in today's afternoon showdown between the Royals and Giants. This game features a couple of starters that have underperformed overall, but are on the right track. Kansas City's Jason Hamel has a 0.944 WHIP in his last 3 starts and in his last start, held the high-powered Astros lineup to just 1 run on 4 hits over 7 innings. That came after holding the Indians to 3 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Giants will counter with Johnny Cueto, who has a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and for as bad as it's been in 2017, he's allowed more than 3 earned runs in just 4 of 13 starts.

UNDER is 62-35 in Cueto's career during day games and is 13-4 in the Giants last 17 home games against a right-handed starter and 15-5 in their last 20 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER

After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 Annihilator on OVER

Each of the first two games have flirted right on the number with Game 1 just squeaking OVER and Game 2 staying UNDER. Both games we got next to nothing from Boston's offense and still almost hit our mark. I know this series is all but over, but I don't expect the Celtics to go down without a fight here. I also think that we could see the Cavs relax a bit defensively given how easy it's been so far in the series and that Boston will be without their best player in Thomas. As for Cleveland's offense, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas and I don't see the Celtics doing anything here to stop them from lighting up the scoreboard, especially now that the series has shifted to Cleveland Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER!

5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER

The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series.

This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockies/Dodgers UNDER

It can be hard to even think about backing the OVER with Kershaw on the mound, but I believe that thought process by the public has created some great value here. Kershaw isn't super human at Coors Field, where he has a 4.71 ERA in 18 career starts. That includes a start at Colorado in early April, where he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits (3 HRs). The ball is flying even better at Coors now, as temps are starting to creep up, plus tonight there's a 13 mph wind blowing straight out to left. Even if Kershaw is great, there's a decent chance the Dodgers could put up 10 runs on their own, as they face Tyler Chatwood, who has a 5.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. LA's offense has scored 7 or more in 4 of their last 6 and at least 4 runs in each of those 6 games. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Red Sox/Brewers OVER 9.5

The Red Sox and Brewers should have no problem combining for 10 or more runs tonight. These two put up 18 in the series opener last night with two of the better pitchers for both teams on the mound. Tonight it's Kyle Kendrick for Boston, who is one of a few guys who could start for the Red Sox and not be listed as a favorite against a team like the Brewers. Milwaukee's starter is Chase Anderson, who does have a respectable 2.86 ERA in 6 starts, but is not an elite guy and is trending in the wrong direction with a 4.32 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's facing a Boston offense that is on fire, scoring 35 runs on 43 hits in their last 3 games. Both teams have the potential to put up a big number in this one. Take the OVER 9.5!

4* Warriors/Jazz NBA Over/Under No Brainer on UNDER

The public loves to back the OVER in Warriors games, which has created some great value when they go up against some of the better teams. In fact, the UNDER is 20-5-1 in the Warriors last 26 games against a team that simply has a winning record (not just the elite teams). It's 2-1 in the series with Game 3 in Utah finishing with 193 points on a total of 209. That was with Durant and Curry combining for 61 and Hayward and Gobert teaming up for 50. Utah's known for their defense and the Warriors aren't too far behind them, the media just focuses on the offense. I don't see the Jazz going out without a fight and I also think Golden State is motivated here to match the Cavs with back-to-back sweeps to start the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if this game fails to reach 190 points. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Red Sox/Orioles UNDER

I like the value here on the total and Monday's game going under the mark set by the books. While the calendar turns to May, it's going to feel like an early April game tonight, as temps are in the low 50's with winds blowing straight in from center at roughly 10 mph. On top of that, we have two very capable starters going in this one.

Boston sends out reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, who has pitched well in all but one start and comes in off two strong outings. Porcello was dominant in his last two starts against the Orioles, allowing 3 runs on a mere 8 hits over 17 innings. Baltimore will counter with one of the elite young starters in the game in Dylan Bundy, who is 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 5 starts. That includes a recent start at home against these Red Sox, where he tossed 7 shutout innings. UNDER is 11-2 in Bundy's last 13 starts in night games. Take the UNDER!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Brewers/Reds OVER

I really like the value here with the total and these two teams going over the mark set by the books. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is known as one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league and today the ball figures to be flying out of the park with the wind blowing straight out to left field at more than 15 mph. Not to mention we don't exactly have a great pitching matchup in this one. The Reds are calling up Sal Romano to make his MLB debut and will be facing a Milwaukee offense that has scored 20 runs in their last 3 games. The Brewers send out Wily Peralta, who isn't the same pitcher on the road as he is at home and will be facing a Cincinnati offense that has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

5* AL Over/Under Total of the Month on Angels/Royals OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's showdown between the Angels and Royals. Conditions are going to be ideal for some big innings for both sides, as the wind will be blowing straight out to left at 15 mph. Kansas City will give the ball to their ace Danny Duffy, who has a 2.08 ERA in his first 2 starts. The thing is, Duffy is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. He's going to have be near perfect to avoid giving up a home run or two in this one.

On the other side of this, the Angels are calling on JC Ramirez to make his first major league start after only being used out of the pen (111 career relief appearances). I'm not expecting a lot from him, as he owns a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his big league career and a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 3 appearances this season. KC isn't a dynamic offense, but are capable of putting up a big number and I expect them to do just that. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on A's/Royals OVER

This has a high-scoring affair written all over it. Kauffman Stadium isn't a great hitters park, but the wind will be blowing out to right field at more than 15 mph. On top of that, we have two starters here that didn't exactly fair well in their first start of the season. Oakland's Jharel Cotton allowed 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 4.3 innings of work at home against the Angels, while Kansas City's Ian Kennedy lasted just 5 innings after giving up 3 runs with 5 walks. OVER is 16-5-2 dating back to last season when facing a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Giants/Padres UNDER

It's not secret that San Diego's Petco Park is one of baseball's best pitchers park. It figures to benefit today's starters even more, as the wind is expected to be blowing in from left field at close to 15 mph. On top of that the Giants will give the ball to Johnny Cueto. He wasn't great in his first start, but that came at one of the top hitter parks in Arizona. He should be a lot better here and he's got a 2.96 ERA over 12 career starts against the Padres. San Diego gives the ball to Clayton Richard, who was sensational in his first start at LA. He tossed 8 shutout innings against the Dodgers. He should be able to keep the Giants in check here. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Afternoon Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cubs/Cardinals OVER

These are two of the better offenses in baseball and both have simply been held in check by elite starting pitching in the first two games of this series. I look for both sides to score early and often in this one, as we take a big step back on the mound with Lackey and Lynn. I have real concerns with Lynn here, who has lost some mph on his fastball and working back from injury. Another huge factor here with the total is that the wind will be blowing out to right field at close to 20 mph. Both of these teams have some legit left-handed hitters who should be able to take advantage of that. I just don't feel there's too much value here, as I believe this total should be closer to 9. Take the OVER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Giants/Dbacks OVER

San Francisco and Arizona have combined for 10+ runs in each of the first two games of this series and I look for the trend to continue tonight. Chase Field is one of the better hitter parks in baseball and both of these teams are seeing the ball well right now. Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker are a couple of promising starters, but both struggle with consistency. I'm expecting both to struggle out of the gate here. It's also worth noting that neither figures to go deep in this game, so we could see one or both teams getting the bullpen early. OVER is 25-14 in Arizona's last 39 home games with a total of 9 or 9.5 and 18-7-2 in the Diamondbacks last 27 home games against a left-handed starter. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mariners/Astros UNDER

Each of the first two games of this series have seen little offense, both games resulting in a total of just 3 runs scored. I look for that trend to continue here in what I feel is a very underrated pitching matchup. The Mariners give the ball to James Paxton, who just might be their best starter by the time it's all said and done. Houston counters with Charlie Morton, who was impressive enough in spring training to earn the third spot in the rotation for the Astros. I believe he's going to be one of the big surprises as long as he can stay healthy. UNDER is 25-11 in the Astros last 36 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in straight games and 25-12 in their last 37 home games against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* Cubs/Cardinals Over/Under Total Dominator on UNDER

Conditions are set up for a low-scoring game, as the wind will be blowing in from left center at close to 10 mph. That's a big factor when you consider the starting pitching matchup we have here with Adam Wainwright going up against Jake Arrieta. Wainwright didn't have a great 2016 campaign, but I look for him to bounce back in 2017. Cubs offense clearly wasn't locked in on Opening Day and this is a good time for Wainwright to be facing them. Arrieta owns a 2.15 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cardinals and held them to just 2 earned runs on 13 hits in his final 3 starts against them last year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

4* Final Four Over/Under Total Annihilator on S Carolina/Gonzaga UNDER

I'm expecting both offenses to struggle to find a rhythm in this one and for this game to finish well below mark the books have set. There's been plenty of talk about South Carolina's defense and rightfully so, but Gonzaga is every bit as good on the defensive side of the ball as the Gamecocks. The Bulldogs have been especially strong on the defensive side of the ball in the tournament. They held South Dakota State to 31%, Northwestern to 41%, West Virginia to 27% and Xavier to 36%. The last two opponents Gonzaga has held under 60 points and I look for them to do the same against South Carolina. UNDER is 18-8 in Gonzaga's last 26 non-conference games and 19-6 in the Gamecocks last 25 neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NIT Championship Game Vegas Insider on UNDER

It's hard to predict what teams are going to show up early in the NIT, but once you get the semifinals at Madison Square Garden, teams are going to show up and lay everything they have on the line. I look for defense to dominate in the championship game between the Yellow Jackets and Horned Frogs. Georgia Tech is an elite defensive team, who is extremely limited offensively, which is exactly what you want when backing the UNDER. TCU is no defensive slouch either and should have no problem keep the Yellow Jackets offense in check. I also think both offenses under perform given the stakes of this being the title game. Both teams played their semifinal game on Tuesday and the UNDER is 11-2 in the Yellow Jackets last 13 when playing with 1 or less days of rest. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Horned Frogs last 9 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* Xavier/Gonzaga Elite Eight Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I really like the value here on the total and for Xavier and Gonzaga to go over the mark here set by the books. We haven't seen the best of what the Bulldogs offense can bring to the table. They came out flat in their opener against South Dakota State and ended up scoring just 66 points, but note they had 40 in the 2nd half. They put up 79 on a very good Northwestern defense in the Round of 32, but then were held to just 61 by an even better West Virginia defense, which also took them out of their flow with the press. I look for Gonzaga's offense to explode here against the Musketeers, who are far from an elite defensive team. At the same, I look for Xavier's offense to stay hot and score enough here to push this well over the number. Take the OVER!

4* Sweet 16 Late Night Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Florida UNDER

I don't think there's much to this one. Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive side of the ball and a bit limited offensively. Not to mention both are accustomed to playing a grind it out type of game. Florida held Virginia to a mere 39 points in their last game, while Wisconsin limited No. 1 overall seed Villanova to just 62. That was with both teams having just one-day to prepare for the opposition. Each has now had 5 days to prepare for the opponent and I look for these two to struggle to eclipse 120 let along 130. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER

The Bucks have been locking down opponents on the defensive side of the floor lately. Milwaukee has allowed more than 103 points just twice in their last 12 games and both of those came on the road with one of them being the Warriors. They should have no problem keeping the Hawks in check at home. Atlanta continues to play without two of their most important pieces in Millsap and Bazemore. The Hawks have scored 100 or less in 5 straight games. Atlanta can't keep messing around. They are sitting in 5th place in the east, but just 3.5 games from being in 9th. I look for both teams to bring the intensity on defense and keep this well below the number. UNDER is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-2 in their last 16 off a road loss. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Bucks last 28 games in the month of March and 9-1 in their last 10 when facing a team that scored 100 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on S Carolina/Baylor UNDER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well under the mark set by the books. South Carolina is an excellent defensive team. Yes, they gave up 81 points to Duke in the Round of 32, but they held the Blue Devils to a mere 41.5% shooting percentage. Duke plays at a much faster tempo than Baylor and has a lot better offensive players. Baylor has put up 91 and 82 in their first two tournament games, but that's a bit out of character for a team that only averages 73.5 and didn't score 80 or more in a single Big 12 game. Not to mention the Bears are a dominant defensive team as well, as they only give up 63.5 ppg. Add in the pressure and the fact that neither of these teams exactly no how to handle it and I look for both teams to struggle offensively. Take the UNDER 135!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pacers/Raptors UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. Indiana comes in having held each of their last 5 opponents under 100 points and failed to eclipse the 100 point mark in 3 of their last 4. Their last game saw just 175 combined points and the game before that was just 168. Toronto has held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 80 or points or less and combined for a mere 162 in their last game at Detroit. Toronto's just not the same offensive team without Lowry and have to rely more on their defense. UNDER is 24-7 in the Raptors last 31 off an upset win and 16-5 in the Pacers last 21 overall. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between these two Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs come in allowing just 98.5 ppg which is second in the league behind the Jazz. Memphis isn't far behind, as they rank 4th at 100.4 ppg and are even stronger at home, where they allow a mere 97.2 ppg. UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. It's also 9-3 in the Grizzlies last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after they scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAA Early Bird Over/Under Total No Brainer on Princeton/Notre Dame UNDER 

I don't see either team being able to have a ton of success offensively in this one. I know this isn't the same Princeton style of play from years past, but the Tigers still like to slow it down and limit the opposing teams possessions. Princeton only gives up 61.5 ppg. Notre Dame is a team that can play fast or slow, as they had no choice but to speed it up in some of their ACC games. With that said, the Irish would prefer to play at a slower tempo. Throw in this being a neutral setting and the first game off the board, I just think it's going to be a bit sloppy.

Dating back to 1997 the UNDER is 60% in Notre Dame's road games when facing a team that allows 64 point or fewer. UNDER is also 12-2 in the Irish's last 14 NCAA Tournament games when listed as the favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Clippers UNDER

Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position and will be extra motivated after losing last time out. Milwaukee was embarrassed in a 93-113 defeat at Memphis, while the Clippers lost at Utah 108-114. Note that prior to giving up 113 to the Grizzlies, the Bucks had held each of their last 5 to 100 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to 102 or fewer. I expect a much more locked in Milwaukee team in this one on defense. LA is also a team that can play defense and they have been trending much better on that side of the ball.

UNDER is 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 13-3 in their last 16 home games in the month of March, 22-9 in their last 31 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after 3 straight games where they shot 47% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Wolves NBATV Heavy Hitter on UNDER 

The injury to Durant combined with Curry just not playing at the same level as the past two years has the Warriors offense in a funk. Golden State is averaging just 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and that's well below their season mark of 117.0 ppg. They now face a Minnesota team that is locking down on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves have allowed 97 or fewer points in 4 straight. While the offense has struggled, Golden State's defense has picked up the pace and they are really playing well on that side of the ball. I look for both offenses to struggle here. We know we are going to get a max effort from the Timberwolves at home in a game being televised on NBATV and the Warriors aren't going to take this one lightly off a loss. UNDER is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less and 13-5 in their last 18 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

4* Pitt/Ga Tech ACC Tourn Total No Brainer on UNDER

These conference tournament games have a tendency to be much lower-scoring than people anticipate and a lot of that has to do with teams don't shoot as well away from home and the defensive intensity is turned up a notch. I look for both of these teams to struggle to score, which would be nothing new. Pittsburgh is only averaging 68.0 ppg away from home and the Yellow Jackets are even worse at 63.3 ppg on the road.

It's also worth noting that these two combined for a mere 113 points in their only regular season matchup. UNDER is 9-3 in Pitts last 12 as a favorite of 6.5 or less, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 50 or less in their last game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs the ACC. UNDER is also 15-5-1 in Georgia Tech's last 21 as a dog of 6.5 or less. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER

I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!