Sports Picks & Predictions

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Brewers/Rockies OVER

This might seem like a high total even at Coors Field given how bad the Brewers have been offensively in 2015, but I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fireworks from both teams.

Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann has an impressive 2.25 ERA, but he's only made two starts. He was sharp in his debut at Pittsburgh, but really labored through 5 innings at home against the Nationals. I just think Jungmann is going to struggle here in his first start in the thin air of Coors Field.

On the other side of this, Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has an awful 6.99 ERA and 1.694 WHIP over 6 home starts and a 7.92 ERA and 1.761 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Brewers. OVER is 32-16 in Rockies last 48 home games after 2 or more losses and 10-2 in the Brewers last 12 against the NL West. Take the OVER!

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nats/Brewers OVER

There's simply too much value here to not take a chance on the OVER in tonight's matchup between the Brewers and Nationals. The average combined score in Milwaukee's home games this season is 9.7, which has resulted in the OVER going 19-10 in their 29 home contests. This becomes even stronger a play when you take into consideration that the Nationals are scoring 4.7 runs/game on the road and have seen the OVER go 19-12 in their 31 games away from home.

Today's starting pitching matchup also favors a high scoring game. Washington's Jordan ZImmermann has a 4.13 ERA and 1.447 WHIP over 5 road starts, while Milwaukee's Michael Fiers has a 5.83 ERA and 1.773 WHIP over 6 home starts. Nationals bullpen ERA is 4.50 on the road (3.66 overall) and Brewers bullpen ERA and 3.96 at home (3.31 overall). Take the OVER!

3* MLB Total Annihilator on Astros/White Sox UNDER

The oddsmakers have set the total way too high for this one. I don't expect either offense to be able to get anything going given the starting pitching matchup we have going.

Houston will send out Dallas Keuchel, who is right there with Felix Hernandez at the top of the Cy Young race. Keuchel is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.924 WHIP over 12 starts. He will be opposed by the emerging arm of youngster Carlos Rodon, who has complied a 1.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.

UNDER is 12-3 in Chicago's 15 home night games this season and 9-1 in their last 10 home games with a money line of +125 to -125. Under is also 12-3 in Keuchel's last 15 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB AL Total of the Week on Orioles/Astros UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring game tonight between the Astros and Orioles, making this an easy selection on the UNDER with this high total. Keep in mind that the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has a respectable 3.48 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 10 starts and is coming off one of his best outings of the season. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings against the Rays at home. While he's struggled on the road, the Astros are a team that relies almost exclusively on the long ball and Gonzalez has allowed just 3 home runs on the road all season.

The Orioles offense has been in a major funk of late. They are hitting just .228 as a team and averaging just 3.0 runs/game over their last 7. Their struggles figure to continue against Houston's Lance McCullers, who has a 2.40 ERA over his first 3 starts. McCullers has struggled to go deep, but that's not a big concern here with how well the Astros bullpen has been throwing the rock.

UNDER is 12-2 in Gonzalez's last 14 road starts with a money line of +125 to -125, 9-1 in his last 10 during Game 3 of a series and 8-2 in his last 10 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (29-5) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213

With the Houston Rockets looking to avoid being swept by the Golden State Warriors on Monday the best value on the board comes on the total. Three straight games have gone under in this series, including Game 3, which went WAY under the number. This has predictably caused the line to be adjusted down significantly for Game 4.

The series started in Golden State with a total of 220 points and has been adjusted all the way down to 214 following some lower scores in Games 2 and 3. Game 3 was a complete fluke with Houston shooting as bad as they possibly could hitting 33.7% from the field. This is a Rockets team that has shot 44.7% from the field and averaged 108 points per game throughout the playoffs.

The Warriors have played pretty good defense throughout the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% from the field, but that's a far cry from what we saw the other night in Houston. Offensively Golden State's numbers speak for themselves. Almost no opponent has been able to figure them out. They are averaging just over 109 points per game this season, including almost 107 points per game on the road. With oddsmakers over-adjusting, we'll jump on this total. Take the Over!

5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%.

The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197!

3* MLB Total No Brainer on Dbacks/Marlins UNDER

This total has been set too high for tonight's game between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. The UNDER has cashed in each of the last three games for both teams, including the first two of this series. Arizona has totaled just 7 runs in their last 3 games and the Marlins have managed just 4 in their last 3.

I look for both offenses to continue to struggle given the pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks will send out Chase Anderson, who despite a 0-1 record has a 2.81 ERA and 1.104 WHIP over his 7 starts. Anderson has been especially good on the road, posting a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP with all 3 of his road starts going under the mark. Miami counters with David Phelps, who has a 1.75 ERA and 1.139 WHIP over 6 starts.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Marlins last 19 when revenging two straight home losses to an opponent. UNDER is also 22-8 in the Diamondbacks last 30 road games against poor power teams who are averaging 0.75 or less home runs/game. These two trends combine to form a strong 76% (37-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Rays/Twins MLB Vegas Insider on UNDER

I'm not expecting to see a whole lot of runs scored in today's matchup against the Rays and Twins, which has this total showing some great value at 7.5. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 2/3 innings of work on the road and has 2.59 ERA and 1.027 WHIP over his 8 starts overall this season.

As good as Archer has been on the road, Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has been equally impressive at home. Gibson is 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.968 WHIP over 3 home starts, allowing just 1 run over 20 2/3 innings of work. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Yankees/Royals OVER

The Royals and Yankees should have no problem here combining for at least 9 runs. Not only do we have a couple of struggling starters on the mound in C.C. Sabathia and Danny Duffy, but winds are expected to be blowing out to left field around 15 mph.

Sabathia comes in with a 1-5 record to go with a 5.20 ERA and 1.400 WHIP over 7 starts, while Duffy is 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.710 WHIP over his 7 starts in 2015. Sabathia has allowed 8 home runs already this season. While Duffy has only given up 3 homers, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and the Yankees come in having hit 44 home runs on the season. The wind was blowing out in Duffy's last home start against the Indians and he lasted just 1 inning after giving up 4 runs on 6 hits.

OVER is 10-1 in the Royals last 11 games against a team with an overused bullpen that is averaging 3.2+ innings/game and 10-1 in their last 11 against a starting pitcher who walks 1.75 or fewer batters/start. These two trends combine to form a huge 91% (20-2) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER

These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4.

It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up.

UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

Each of the first three games in this series have failed to surpass 188 points, yet the books continue to post a total around 196-198 points. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that these two teams aren't putting up a ton of points. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies were 4th.

The home team typically is the one that dictates the tempo and Memphis clearly wants to slow this game down and not let the Warriors get into any sort of rhythm offensively. The Grizzlies are doing an excellent job of defending the 3-point line and a lot of that has to do with the perimeter defense of Conley and Allen.

I'm expecting all out defensive effort here from both teams, as I think both teams are aware that this game could very well decide the series. UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog, 23-3 in their last 26 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA Playoffs No Brainer on UNDER

While the first two games in this series have finished with a final combined score of 187 points, the total hasn't really moved due to the public liking to back the OVER in Golden State games. I just don't see this turning into an offensive shootout.

Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially on their home floor. Conley and Allen are more than capable of slowing down Curry and Thompson and that really makes it difficult for the Warriors to get into a rhythm offensively. Golden State is equally as strong defensively and I think they turn their focus to that side of the ball in Game 3 on the road. Memphis is looking to slow the game way down and aren't a great outside shooting team.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 off an upset win as a road underdog. UNDER is also 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on A's/Twins UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this contest, as we have two underrated starters taking the mound. Oakland's Scott Kazmir has a 1.62 ERA and 0.930 WHIP over 5 starts. Minnesota will counter with Kyle Gibson. While Gibson has a respectable 3.56 ERA overall, he's got a sensational 0.61 ERA and 0.954 WHIP over his 2 home starts.

A big reason we are seeing a high total here is due to the fact that both offenses have been putting up runs in bunches of late. However, neither offense was able to get much of anything going in yesterday's contest, as Oakland won by a final of just 2-1.

UNDER is 5-1-1 in Kazmir's last 7 starts against the AL Central and 9-4-2 in the A's last 15 road games against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 5-0-1 in Gibson's last 5 starts and 4-1-1 in his last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (23-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193.

With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games.

Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers).

I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Grizzlies/Warriors  NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER

The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.

A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.

Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."

UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!

4* MLB No Doubt Total Annihilator on Mariners/Astros UNDER

This total has been set way too high. While these two teams combined for 15 runs yesterday, they had scored just 5 and 7 in the previous two in the series. I look for another low-scoring affair in an underrated pitching matchup.

Seattle will send out J.A. Happ, who has quietly gone 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over his first 4 starts. Happ has been just as strong on the road (2.08 ERA in 2 starts) as he has at home. Houston's Roberto Hernandez has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 3 starts.

Happ has a 2.16 ERA and 1.240 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Astros and Hernandez has a 2.93 ERA and 1.157 WHIP over his last 9 starts against the Mariners. These two starters faced off earlier this season (4/22) and the final of that game ended at 3-2.

UNDER is 9-1 in Happ's last 10 starts with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs and 11-1 in his last 12 when listed as a favorite of -110 or higher. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Astros' last 10 home games with a money line of +125 to -125. These combine to form a dynamite 91% (29-3) system. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER

St Louis won the series opener 2-1 in a pitcher's duel last night and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Pirates will be sending out Francisco Liriano, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA over three career starts at St Louis and hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 11 starts overall.

Cardinals counter with John Lackey. While Lackey enters with a 4.21 ERA over 4 starts, his 1.208 WHIP informs that he's been a bit unfortunate with the ERA to this point. The important thing here is that Lackey has thrived at Busch Stadium. In his two home starts with the Cardinals in 2015, he has a 1.93 ERA and 1.143 WHIP.

UNDER is 12-2 in Liriano's last 14 road starts and 9-1-2 in his last 12 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. UNDER is also 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 home games against a left-handed starter and 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 home starts. These trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (30-3) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER

I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.

Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.

Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.

UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Total Annihilator on A's/Angels UNDER

Today's starting pitching matchup of Drew Pomeranz and Hector Santiago might not scream pitchers duel, but I think that's exactly what's going to transpire. Pomeranz allowed 4 runs in his last start, but only gave up 6 hits and 1 walk. He threw 7 scoreless innings in his previous start against the Mariners.

The big key here is that the Angels are averaging just 2.5 runs/game against left-handed starters and hitting a more .203 as a team versus south paws. Santiago figures to do a good job of keeping Oakland's offense in check, as he's 2-0 with a 0.91 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over his last 5 starts against the A's. Santiago has also allowed just 4 runs on 10 hits over 12 1/3 innings of work in his first two starts of 2015.

UNDER is 30-17 in the Angels last 47 home games when their bullpen comes in with a WHIP less than 1.200 over their last 10 games, 5-0 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter and 6-1 in Santiago's last 7 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. UNDER is also 6-1 in the A's last 7 road games as an underdog and 5-1 in Pomeranz's last 6 road starts. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (52-20) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.

The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.

It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER

It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.

I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.

The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.

UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.

UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Total Annihilator on Brewers/Pirates UNDER

Great value here with this price on the total for the under. Both of these teams come in swinging a cold bat. Pittsburgh hasn't scored a run in 2 straight games, while the Brewers have manged just 2 runs in their last 2 and were shutout in their last contest.

Typically given how both offenses have performed we would expect to see a total here at 6.5 or 6, but with a couple of relatively unknown starters on the mound we are seeing it sitting at 7. Great thing here is that both of these starters are better than people think. Jimmy Nelson threw 7 shutout innings in his first start of 2015 and Jeff Locke allowed just 2 runs over 6 innings.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Brewers last 25 road games after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games and 32-12 in the Pirates last 44 home games after 3 straight where they stranded 5 runs or less. These two trends combine to form a 74% (51-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* MLB Total Annihilator on A's/Astros OVER 8.5

These two teams combined for 9 runs in the series opener yesterday with the Astros contributing just 1-run. Given today's pitching matchup, I'm expecting both offenses to put up a big number and have us easily eclipsing the mark here of 8.5.

Oakland will send out Kendall Graveman, who was shelled for 8 runs on 7 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of work in a 1-10 loss at home to the Rangers in his first career start. While I don't expect Graveman to be that bad again, Houston should be able to put 4-5 runs on the board in this one.

The Astros will counter with Brad Peacock, who will be making his 2015 debut. Peacock is returning to action off the DL and I just don't see him being sharp in this one. He had a 4.72 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 28 appearances (24 starts) in 2014 and has really struggled against the A's, posting a 1-3 record with a 5.19 ERA and 1.702 WHIP over 7 starts.

OVER is 26-12 in Houston's last 38 home games against division opponents and 17-4 in the Astros' last 21 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. OVER is also 6-1-1 in the A's last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less and 6-0 in their last 6 verses division opponents. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER

With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.

These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).

The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.

OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER

Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.

I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.

UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.

I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

Only once in the last 8 meetings between these two teams have they combined for more than 200 points. All 3 meetings this season have seen 194 or fewer points. In the lone meeting in Memphis, the two combined for a mere 159 points.

The big reason we are seeing such a high total here is due to the Thunder coming off a game against Dallas where the two teams combined for a staggering 266 points. I just don't see that kind of game here. Memphis is a dominant defensive team and rarely give up a big number on their home floor. At the same time, the Grizzlies are not a good offensive team and like to play at a slow pace.

Couple extra factors here that I believe favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has fallen a .5-game back of the Rockets for the No. 2 spot in the west. Getting out of No. 3 and back into No. 2 is crucial, as the No. 3 seed will likely have to open with either the Spurs or Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City became the first team since 1995 to have 3 players score 30+ points in a losing effort in that loss to Dallas and have their defensive to blame. I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball. Thunder are also just 1.5-games ahead of surging New Orleans for the 8th and final playoff spot.

UNDER is 14-1 in Memphis' last 15 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 after allowing 125+ and 17-7 in their last 24 after making 12 or more 3-point shots. These trends combine to form a 80% (70-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nets OVER

The Nets are playing some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has scored 100+ in 4 straight games and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 8. Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut all season, as the Raptors rank 4th in the league at 104.2 ppg. Of importance here is that their offense has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 105.9 ppg.

While the Nets have found their mojo offensively, they are still struggling to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn comes in allowing 100.6 ppg on the season and are giving 108.0 ppg over their last 5 at home. Toronto on the other hand has really struggled defensively on the road. The Raptors are allowing 104.3 ppg away from home and allowing teams to shoot 47% from the field. The fewest points Toronto has allowed on the road in their last 12 is 98.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 24-3 since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 or more points, where the home team has won 8 or more of their last 10 games, yet are only winning between 40% to 49% of their games on the season. That's a 89% system. Take the OVER!

5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER

The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16.

Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat.

With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field.

It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall.

OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch.

Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4  spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Total Dominator on Rockets/Wizards UNDER

These early start times that come with the Sunday slate have a strong tendency to go under the total and I think we are getting plenty of value here. Both of these teams are fighting for home court in the playoffs, which is going to add to the defensive intensity. Washington is only allowing 96.5 ppg at home and are scoring just 94.4 ppg over their last 5.

These two teams combined for 207 points in the previous meeting this season and that was with both teams shooting over 46% from the field. I look for both teams to have a much harder time from the field in the rematch.

UNDER is 30-19 in the Rockets last 49 when the total is set at 200 or more points, 15-5 in the Wizards last 20 after a win by 3 points or less and 14-4 in Washington's last 18 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a 68% (59-28) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Grizzlies UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in what I feel is going to be an offensive struggle for both teams. The Grizzlies are back to playing their brand of basketball and have been putting on a defensive clinic at home of late, allowing a mere 84.7 ppg over their last 10 home games.

Adding to that is the fact that not once during this stretch did Memphis eclipse the 100-point mark offensively. Cleveland held the Grizzlies to just 91 points in the previous meeting this season and are much better defensive team now than they were in December.

UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-0 in their last 8 after a cover as a double digit favorite in their last game. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (17-0) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting both of these teams to come out with a lot of energy here defensively. The Bucks are only giving up just 96.6 ppg at home and will be motivated here to snap a 6-game losing streak that has them 3.5-games ahead of 9th place Charlotte. Miami is only 2-games in front of the Hornets so they too will be motivated to get a win. The Heat will also be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 previous meetings against Milwaukee this season.

One of the keys here is that the Heat are averaging just 92.6 ppg on the road and managed just 75 points in their last game at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has scored 90 or fewer in 3 of their last 5 overall and Miami is only giving up 96.6 ppg on the road.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 road games off a loss by 10+ points and 10-1 this season when playing against a marginal losing team that's won between 40% to 49% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 straight games with 10 or more steals. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (41-9) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Heat/Thunder UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 22-straight games, but will be going up against a tough Miami defense without several key pieces of their offense. Durant, Ibaka, Collison are all out with injuries and Kanter is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Miami on the other hand continues to play without Chris Bosh. Another big factor here is the early start time on Sunday, which has historically led to lower-scoring games. These two teams also combined for just 180 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 20.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 non-conference road games and 10-2 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 19-10 in Thunder's last 29 when playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after finishing over the total in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a 76% (48-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hawks/Warriors Late Night Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for 240 points in Atlanta in their previous meeting this season, but there's not near the hype the second time around and both teams will be playing without two of their most important plays.

Golden State won't have Klay Thompson and the Hawks will be without Kyle Korver. These are two of the best shooters in the game, that really make it difficult on opposing defenses with how much attention they have to pay to them. Not having them on the floor is going to make life much easier for both defenses, which I believe will have this one finishing well below the mark. You also have to factor in that both teams have a better understanding of what the other likes to do offensively after already facing each other.

UNDER is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5

The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday.  These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. 

OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER

These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively.

Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak.

UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bulls/Spurs NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

Great situation here to back the under, as we have a nationally televised game with an early start time between two fundamentally sound defensive teams. With the injuries the Bulls are dealing with, their only hope of staying competitive is to give max effort defensively. While the Spurs are averaging 110 over their last 4, it's come against some bad defensive teams in the Kings (twice), Suns and Nuggets.

The Bulls have held the Spurs to fewer than 90 points twice in the last 3 meetings and it would come as a surprise if Chicago was able to top 90 points given their current form. San Antonio is only allowing 95.4 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Bulls 29 road games this season and 12-3 when listed as a road dog. UNDER is also 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 non-conference games, 23-8 in their last 31 home games after scoring 120 or more in their last contest, 7-2 in their last 9 on Sunday and 12-3 in their last 15 following an ATS loss. These trends combine to form a 74% (88-31) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER

Both of these teams come into this contest off a strong offensive performance. The Bulls scored 108 last night against the Thunder, while the Pacers put up 105 against the Knicks. That's going to have to public looking to back the over with this low total, but the real value here is with the under.

These two division rivals have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen a combined score of 189 or less. With the Bulls playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and without the services of Rose, Butler or Gibson, it's highly unlikely Chicago will flirt with 100 points in back-to-back nights. The important thing here is the Bulls will bring the intensity defensively and Indiana is far from a strong offensive team and are averaging just 90.2 ppg in their last 5 against Chicago.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 road games after two or more consecutive wins, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 11-3 on the season when listed as a road underdog. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 off 3 or more consecutive wins and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after winning 3 of their previous 4. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-17) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Bulls TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

The Thunder are averaging 112.2 ppg over their last 5 and seen each of their last 4 finish over the total. Their recent offensive surge along with this being a nationally televised game on TNT, has the total inflated. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and 5-1 in the last 6 overall.

Chicago is without three of their better offensive players in Rose, Butler and Gibson and have no choice but to turn their focus to the defensive end of the floor to remain competitive. The Bulls are only averaging 90.4 ppg and allowing 89.2 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Thunder won't be looking to push the tempo after playing a grueling overtime game at Philadelphia last night. Adding to that is the fact that this will be Oklahoma City's 3rd game in 4 days and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Plus, Chicago comes in off 2-days rest, so we can expect max energy defensively here.

UNDER is 31-14 in the Bulls last 45 off a home win, 14-4 in their 18 after playing two straight games as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 15-4 in their last 19 after a combined score of 205+ in 4 or more straight games. These trends combine to form a 75% (77-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER

These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat.

This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously.

A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9.

UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Raptors/76ers UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark in this one. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 184 or less, including a mere 177 points in the most recent meeting at Philadelphia.

I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight, as we have a highly motivated Toronto team that is looking to snap a 5-game losing streak and a Philadelphia team that is averaging just 86.9 ppg in division matchups and will be without their leading scorer Robert Covington.

UNDER is 10-0 in the 76ers last 10 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-9 in Philadelphia's last 30 after playing their last previous game as a road underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 when revenging a same season loss and 8-3 in the Raptors last 11 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (59-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Total Annihilator on Syracuse/Virginia UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Cavaliers and Orange. Both of these teams have a lot to play for, which should only add to the intensity of this nationally televised matchup on ESPN. Virginia needs a win to secure the outright ACC regular season title, while Syracuse will be playing their final home game of the season.

This should lead to a lot of energy defensively, which is an area that both of these teams have excelled at. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 50.1 ppg. Syracuse on the other hand is giving up just 59.2 ppg at home.

UNDER is 10-4-1 in Virginia's last 15 games overall and 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or better. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the Orange's last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 15-5-2 in their last 22 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

This is way to many points for this matchup. The Pelicans are still without Davis and Anderson and are averaging just 96.5 ppg on the road for the season. The Nuggets on the other hand are a complete mess offensively right now. Denver hasn't scored 100 points in 5 straight and have failed to surpass 82 points in 3 of their last 5. Adding to this is the fact that the last time these two teams met, they combined for a mere 178 points.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Nuggets last 15 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-6 in their last 27 against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 10-1 in their last 11 in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Pelicans last 8 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 against at team that's won less than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 against an opponent who allowed 100+ points in their last contest. These trends add up to form a 81% (63-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hornets/Magic NBA Total Dominator on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it, as neither of these teams are capable of a whole lot offensively. The Hornets come in averaging a mere 91.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Magic are scoring just 93.0 ppg over their last 5. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another and this will be their 4th meeting this season, which adds to the value here.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 84% (41-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Spurs/Suns NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than the total that's been set for this matchup. Each of the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have seen 195 or less combined points and the last time they played in Phoenix they combined for just 183.

The big key here is that both of these teams are coming in on little rest. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days. The Suns also are playing 3 in 4 and 6 in the last 9 days. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one and both teams are going to be highly motivated defensively with just 4.5-games separating the two in the standings.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games after going over the total in their last contest, 21-9 in the Suns last 30 games in the 2nd half against teams that are called for 21 or fewer fouls, 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 when playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games against a team that's won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Blazers NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

I believe we are getting some great value here on the UNDER, as the books have inflated the total in this one due both teams coming off high-scoring games and due to the fact that this will be a nationally televised game on ESPN.

The key here is that these two teams have a history of finishing below the mark. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 played in Portland. Another key factor is that we have the Thunder playing without Durant and coming in off an overtime game last night against the Suns. This will also be Oklahoma City's 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder simply aren't going to be able to play at a fast pace. It's also worth noting that the Blazers have held each of their last 5 opponents to 98 or fewer points and are only averaging 93.0 ppg over their last 3.

UNDER is 14-2 in the Trail Blazers last 16 home games with a total greater than 200, 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in Oklahoma City's last 32 against a team with a winning record, 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (64-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total No Brainer on Cavaliers/Pacers UNDER

These two teams met earlier this month in Indiana and the Pacers came away with a surprising 103-99 home win, which is one of just two losses the Cavaliers have suffered over their last 20 games. While that last meeting finished above the mark set for this one, I look for a much lower scoring game in the rematch.

Indiana is going to be motivated against James, while Cleveland will be motivated with revenge. That's not the only key factor favoring a low-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without starting point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to be looking to push the pace in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Keep in mind that the Pacers are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home and Cleveland is giving up a mere 94.2 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, 21-5 in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game and 10-3 in their last 13 following a SU win. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. These trends combine to form a 79% (59-16) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Raptors/Mavericks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one, as I don't see this game reaching 200 points. While these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA on the season, Toronto is averaging just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Mavericks are putting up just 95.4 ppg over their last 5. It's also important to note that both teams have also been limiting opponents on the defensive end. The Raptors are allowing just 90.6 ppg over their last 5 and Dallas is giving up just 96.4.

Dallas is still trying to get use to playing with Rondo and are also adjusting to a new rotation with the addition of Amar'e Stoudemire. It's going to take some time before they get going offensively. This will be the Mavericks 4th game in the last 6 days and the Raptors 4th in the last 5. Neither team figures to be playing at a fast pace due to the lack of rest, which also adds some great value to this one going below the mark.

UNDER is 8-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games after going under the total in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-0 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Raptors last 10 after a close loss by 3 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 88% (42-6) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Eastern Conference Total Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair tonight between these two Central Division rivals. Both teams come in playing well and there's just 3.5-game separating the two. Chicago has won 5 of 6, while the Bucks have taken 9 of their last 11.

Not only am I expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity, but the Bucks current form adds some value here to this one. Milwaukee was active at the trade deadline, trading away Brandon Knight, while acquiring Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Carter-Williams hasn't played in either of the Bucks first two games since the break and is doubtful tonight. Milwaukee also hasn't any time to practice and form some chemistry, as they get ready to play the second of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 overall.

Each of the Bucks first two games since the break have been extremely low-scoring largely due to this. They combined for just 170 points in a 89-81 win over the Nuggets on Friday and just 183 in yesterday's 86-97 loss to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that each of the first two meetings this season have combined for 182 or less.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Bucks last 20 off 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 against at team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. UNDER is also 21-12 in the Bulls last 33 with a total of 190 to 199.5 and 32-16 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. These trends combine to form a 71% (89-36) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break.

Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg.

UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for this early matchup on Sunday between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Cleveland returned from the All-Star break with a blowout 127-89 win at Washington on ESPN and I just don't see them being 100% invested in this one. New York is one of the worst teams in the league and the Cavaliers know they can show up for half this game and come away with a win.

While Cleveland is just going through the motions, I expect the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy at home against LeBron James and company. New York not only is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA (92.4 ppg), they are 28th in the league in pace (92.9). The Knicks know they have know chance if this turns into a shootout, which will have them trying to limit the number of possessions in this game.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 games played on Sunday, 22-3 in their last 25 after 5 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. UNDER is also 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (61-14) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home.

Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games.

Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4.

UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Magic UNDER

These two teams combined for 235 points at Chicago back on Jan. 12 and I believe it has forced the books to overreact and set this total a lot higher than what it should be. Keep in mind that the total in the previous contest was just 190.

Chicago is coming in off an impressive 107-72 win at New Orleans last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. While the Bulls will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, Jimmy Butler was the only player to play more than 30 minutes (34). Chicago has some revenge on their minds against the Magic and I look for them to come out motivated defensively in this one. 

Orlando rallied to beat the Lakers 103-97 in their first game after firing their head coach and held LA to a mere 40.2% shooting. It was the first time in 13 games that the Magic held an opponent under 45%. I look for them to come out with another strong defensive effort in this one.

UNDER is 32-17 over the last 3 seasons when the Bulls are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 road games off a win by 10+ points and 12-3 in the Magic's last 15 after a win by 6-points or less. These add up to form a strong 71% (57-23) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set.

Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season.

On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23.

Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets.

OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER

I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings.

In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto.

This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996.

The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER!

4* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring contest tonight between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis has surrendered 100+ points just once in their last 8 games and during this stretch are holding opponents to just 92.3 ppg. Denver has eclipsed the century mark just once in their last 4 games and are only averaging 98.4 ppg on the road.

The Nuggets come in off a strong defensive effort last night in a 93-85 win at New Orleans and I look for them to bring that same intensity defensively against the Grizzlies, especially with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. This should also have Memphis bringing their "A" game defensively.

However, the big key here is pace. The Grizzlies come in ranked 26th in the league with a pace of 94.2. While Denver is 5th at 98.3, the Nuggets won't be playing up to their normal tempo. Partly due to Memphis being able to control the pace at home and mainly due to Denver playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 4th in 5 days overall.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Grizzlies last 25 off a division road win, 20-8 in their last 28 after a blowout win by 15+ points and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%. UNDER is also 14-4-1 in Nuggets last 19 when their opponent scores 100+ in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Thursday and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (68-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Pistons/76ers UNDER

The 76ers have seen each of their last 5 and 12 of their last 13 finish UNDER the total and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight against the Pistons. Philadelphia comes in averaging a horrific 89.5 ppg and it doesn't figure to get any better with leading scorer Tony Wroten out with a torn ACL and second leading score Michael Carter-Williams questionable with the flu.

While the Pistons have allowed 100+ in each of their last 4 games, they are certainly capable of keeping this 76ers offense in check. On top of this, Detroit doesn't figure to be playing up to their typical pace. The Pistons will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that Detroit is without one of their top offensive playmakers in Brandon Jennings, who was recently lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

UNDER is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4 and 0-3 this season when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. UNDER is also 9-2 in 76ers last 11 after 2 straight games where they shot 39% or worse and 14-4 in their last 18 revenging a same season loss to an opponent. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5.

You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Heat/Bulls NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

Just as I expected, the Bulls carried over the momentum from their 104-81 blowout win at home of the Spurs on Thursday with a 102-98 win at Dallas the next night. I look for Chicago to maintain their renewed focus on the defensive end against the Heat, which should have this game finishing well below the mark.

Slowing down Miami doesn't figure to be too difficult a task, as the Heat have failed scored fewer than 90 points in each of their last 3 games and have topped 100 just once in their last 11 games. It's also worth noting that Miami plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and Chicago doesn't figure to be pushing the tempo here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

These two teams played back in the middle of December and combined for just 168 points in a 93-75 Bulls wins at Miami. It was the third straight in the series that finished with 183 or less combined score.

UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in the Heat's 10 games played in the month of January and 13-4 in their last 17 games played as a road underdog. UNDER is also 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 home games with a total set between 185 and 189.5 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (38-8) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. These two teams combined for just 192 points in New York back on Nov. 12 and that's the same kind of outcome I'm expecting to see tonight. This line has simply been inflated due to the Magic going OVER the total in 6 straight, including a 246 combined score in their last game against Detroit.

The key here is that the Magic's last 6 games have come against the likes of the Blazers, Bulls, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Pistons, who are all very capable offensive teams. The Knicks are not anywhere close to being a good offensive team, as they come in averaging 92.8 ppg. Only the 76ers at 90.1 ppg average fewer. New York hasn't topped the century mark since late December (11 straight games) and have seen the UNDER go 16-5 in their 21 home games.

It's also worth mentioning that neither of these teams like to play at a frantic pace. In fact, the Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league at 92.6, while Orlando is 16th at 96.1. With the game being played at New York and the Knicks well rested (just 2nd game in last 4 days), I look for them to control the tempo, which should have this one finishing well below the mark.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Magic's last 18 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 16-6 in their last 22 road games with a total set above 200 points, and 15-2 in their last 17 road games when they come having lost at least 8 of their last 10. UNDER is 12-3 in Knicks last 15 at home, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 78% (61-17) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER

This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored.

A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. 

Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total.

OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pacers/76ers OVER

When you consider the Pacers are scoring just 95.4 ppg and giving up just 96.8 ppg, your first instinct would be to take the UNDER given the 76ers come in averaging a mere 90.5 ppg. I believe the books have over-adjusted this total, creating some big time value on the OVER.

Indiana isn't going to bring the same defensive intensity against a horrible team like the 76ers, as they would against other teams, especially with how bad the 76ers are defensively. You also have to factor in the Pacers are coming off an overtime game against the Celtics last night. Philadelphia is giving up 106.7 ppg at home. Keep in mind the Pacers have scored and allowed 100+ in each of their last 3 games.

OVER is 9-1 in the Pacers last 10 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 8-1 in their last 9 road games after they failed to cover the spread last time out. OVER is also 29-16 in 76ers last 45 home games after playing their last game on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 31-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points, where you have a team off an upset win as underdog of 10 or more points, that are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. That's a 86% system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack.

The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home.

It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points.

OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER!

4* Birmingham Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in today's showdown between Florida and East Carolina. Both teams matchup extremely well with the opposing teams offense and I look for a lot of empty possessions that have this one finishing well below the mark.

Florida comes in with the 7th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 311.0 ypg and have been equally dominant against the run (116.8 ypg, 13th) as they have against the pass (194.2 ypg, 21st). East Carolina hasn't went up against a defense this good all season and we have seen them struggle against less talented units. Keep in mind the Pirates only managed to score 23-points against South Carolina out of the SEC, who had more than their fair share of struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Florida only gave up 3.1 yards/carry and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 53.6% of their attempts for an average completion of just 5.9 yards.

As for the Gators offense, it is almost exclusively dependent on their running game. Florida finished 41st in the country in rushing (189.5 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (180.7 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the East Carolina defense. The Pirates finished inside the Top 10 in rushing, giving up just 107.1 ypg and allowed just 3.3 ypc. The key here is that with their defense figuring to keep the Pirates in check, Florida is going to continue to pound the rock on the ground and try and wear down this talented East Carolina front. Take the UNDER!

5* New Years Day Citrus Bowl Total of the Year on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle between Minnesota and Missouri leading up to tonight's playoff matchups. Both of these teams have relied heavily on their defenses and offensively they are both focused on running the football.

The Golden Gophers finished 37th in the country in total defense (362.7 ypg). While they were better against the pass than the run, they are strong up front in the trenches and should have no problem keeping Missouri's 100th ranked (361.8 ypg) offense in check. Maty Mauk and the Tigers passing attack ranked just 94th, which is going to force the Tigers to rely almost exclusively on their running game against Minnesota.

Missouri's defense was the reason they won the SEC East. The Tigers finished 22nd in the country overall (344.3 ypg) and were strong against both the run (135.8 ypg, 28th) and the pass (208.5, 37th). The Tigers should have no problem slowing down the Gophers, who are extremely one dimensional. Minnesota finished with the 27th ranked rushing attack (224.6 ypg), compared to a 120th in passing (131.4 ypg).

This is the ideal scenario for the a low scoring game. Two strong defenses against a couple of offenses that are looking to grind out long drives and control the time of possession.

There's a strong system in play backing this as well. UNDER is 53-24 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a strong rushing team that is averaging 190-230 ypg, against a team with a strong run defense that is giving up 100-140 ypg. That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Music City Bowl Total Dominator on LSU/Notre Dame UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle this afternoon with LSU and Notre Dame and I think we are getting some great value here with this total due to the Fighting Irish's struggles on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch.

The key thing here is that LSU is not a strong offensive team and are extremely one dimensional with the running game. The Tigers finished 28th in the country in rushing (219.5 ypg) compared to a mere 112th in passing (163.9 ypg). While Notre Dame's defense struggled against both the run and the pass, they are better equipped to stop the run and will have an easier time doing so without having to worry too much about the pass. The Irish have also had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup and have got healthier on the defensive side of the ball during their bowl prep.

As for the Notre Dame offense, this is not a good matchup for them at all. The Fighting Irish have relied almost exclusively on their passing attack, which comes in 16th in the country at 293.8 ypg. That plays right into the hands of the LSU defense, which featured one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers held opponents to just 162.3 ypg through the air and opposing quarterbacks completed just 50.4%.

It's also important to note that Notre Dame is going to have to run the ball a little more than they would like, as they know they can't afford quick positions that leave their defense out on the field for extended periods. It's also important to note that LSU has a great redzone defense, but struggles to score offensively when in the redzone. Look for a lot of field goals and empty possessions for both teams, which is exactly what we are looking for with a total like this.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 42-12 since 1992 in non-conference games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points that feature two strong teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) at least 8 games into the year. That's a 78% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Texas Bowl Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Texas UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight when the Longhorns take on the Razorbacks. Both teams are going to come out extremely motivated. This is almost going to feel like a home game for Texas and they will be looking to give first year head coach Charlie Strong his first bowl win. Arkansas on the other hand will be playing in their first bowl game since 2011 and first under 2nd year head coach Bret Bielema.

Not only are both these teams going to be fired up for this game, they each have two of the better defenses in the country. Texas finished the year ranked 24th in total defense (348.4 ypg), while Arkansas was 21st (365.4 ypg). These two stop units should have an even bigger edge here with more than a month to prepare for the opposing offenses.

Another key factor to why I like the UNDER in this matchup, is the fact that both of these teams heavily rely on their running games. Texas got their ground game going late in the year and averaged 42.3 rush attempts over their last 4 games, Arkansas averaged 42 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts over the entire season. Look for the clock to be running constantly in this one and most importantly both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off with touchdowns.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Longhorns last 11 games against a strong offensive team that is averaging 31+ points/game and 9-2 in their last 11 games when listed as an underdog. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Razorbacks last 7 when listed as a neutral field favorite and 10-2 in their last 12 bowl games overall. These trends combine to form a 86% (25-4) system backing this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Poinsettia Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between Navy and San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Both of these teams trended towards the UNDER this season. UNDER was 7-4 in Navy's 11 games with a total and 11-1 on they year for San Diego State. The only game for the Aztecs that finished over the total was a 29-38 loss at Boise State.

With this game being played on San Diego State's home field at Qualcomm Stadium, that only adds to the value here on the UNDER. The Aztecs allowed just 12.7 ppg at home this season and should have no problem keeping Navy's offense in check. San Diego's State 3-3-5 defense is built to stop these triple-option attacks and that was evident in their 30-14 win over Air Force in their second to last game of the regular season. They held and Air Force rushing attack that finished the year ranked 8th in the country at 273.1 ypg to just 140 yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypg).

The key thing here is that Navy isn't going to abandon the run even if they struggle, as their just not built to throw the football. San Diego State is also a run dominated offense, as they finished 30th in rushing (218.6 ypg) compared to 102nd in passing (181.5 ypg). With both teams running constantly, the clock will continue to run, which is exactly what we are looking for when backing an UNDER like this. Just not enough possession here for this one to turn into a shootout.

UNDER is 10-2 in Navy's last 12 games against strong rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 or more yards/carry and 21-7 in San Diego State's last 28 against poor passing teams that average 150 or less yards/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 40-12 since 1992 in games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points, where you have a non-conference matchup between two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) facing off at least 8 games into the season. That's a 77% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER

Teams tend to not shoot quite as well on Sundays as they do the rest of the week.  This normally means less scoring for good shooting teams and bad offensive rebounding teams (since they won’t get many second chance points.)  Today we have both teams fitting the bill which really has me liking the UNDER here.

The Magic are a good 3-point shooting team that hits 37.7% of their 3 point attempts on the year.  However, when the total is between 190-199.5 on Sundays a team is making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts, the UNDER is 119-68 (63.6%) the last five seasons.

Neither team hits the glass very well.  Orlando is averaging only 9 offensive rebounds per game against teams that normally give up 11.  Philadelphia is getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.  Both of these stats fit up favorable situations for our under.

On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996.  In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER here today.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Heat/Celtics UNDER

I think the Celtics are going to struggle on offense without Rajon Rondo so this total is a little too high. The Celtics are also coming off back to back performances of shooting over 55% from the floor, and that’s a trend that isn’t going to hold but probably helped bump this total up a little bit.  Plus Boston fits a great system where road teams with a total above 200 coming off 3 straight blowout wins of 15+ points are 27-6 (82%) for the UNDER since 1996.  

Miami has not played with too many totals above 200 this year and they have still trended pretty hard towards the UNDER, going below the number in six of their last 9 despite frequently seeing over/unders 10 points lower than this one.  Miami fits a system that says to take the UNDER when a team has allowed 105 or more in two straight games and they are playing a team off a 15+ point blowout win.  The UNDER is 93-57 (62%) in those situations the last five years.

No Bosh for Miami and no Rando for the Celtics means less offense for both teams.  

3* NFL Week 16 Total Annihilator on Bills/Raiders OVER

The books have set this total too low, as I look for these two teams to have no problem eclipsing 40 points. Buffalo's defense is getting a ton of respect after what they have done the last two weeks against Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I look for them to struggle to bring that same intensity on the road against a bad Oakland team. Unlike the last two weeks, the defense doesn't have to dominate for Buffalo to win this game. This is also a tough spot for the Bills, as they are going to have difficult time not looking ahead to next week's showdown against the Patriots.

I know the Raiders struggled to do much of anything offensively last week against Kansas City, but they have been moving the ball well at home down the stretch. Oakland has scored 24 points in each of their last 2 at the Coliseum against two stout defenses in the Chiefs and 49ers. I look for emerging running back Latavius Murray to catch this Buffalo defense by surprise, which is going to open up some opportunities for big plays down the field in the passing game.

The big key here is that I look for the Bills' offense to put up a big number and potentially surpass this total on their own. Buffalo is a better offensive team than they get credit for and this will be the worst defense they have faced all season. Adding to this is the fact that this is a tough spot for Oakland's defense to play up to their full potential. The Raiders have been picking and choosing when they decide to play and I look for them to have their eyes ahead to next weeks game against the Broncos.

OVER is 4-1 in Buffalo's last 5 after throwing for less than 150 passing yards in their previous game and 13-4 in their last 17 after covering the spread in 4 straight games. The OVER is also 6-1 in the Raiders last 7 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 77% (30-9) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER

Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes.  When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight.

The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games.  Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes.  

Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points.  Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30.  The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14.  I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Total of the Year on Utah State/UTEP UNDER

The last time Utah State took the field they were embarrassed 19-50 in a loss at Boise State, which denied them from getting back the MWC Championship Game. I think that poor showing by the Aggies defense has created some nice value here in what should be a defensive showdown.

Utah State comes into this game ranked 36th in the country in total defense (362.3 ypg) and 21st in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). UTEP on the other hand is 45th in total defense (369.8 ypg) and are only allowing 28.7 ppg.

The key here is that both of these teams rely on their defense to win games, as both have struggled on the offensive side of things. Utah State has lost 3 quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and as a result come in 80th in the country in total offense (381.3 ypg). While the Miners have been fortunate to not suffer any injuries at the quarterback position, they have been even worse than Utah State offensively. UTEP comes in 106th in total offense (357.0 ypg). The Miners do have the nation's 34th ranked rushing attack (212.7 ypg), but will be going up against the Aggies 26th ranked run defense (129.3 ypg).

Knowing that their offenses are going to have a difficult time sustaining drives, I look for both teams to play conservative and turn this into a field position battle. That should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock and have this one finishing well below the mark of 46.

UNDER is 10-2 in Utah State's last 12 games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and perfect 6-0 in UTEP's last 6 when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. UNDER is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a good rushing team that is averaging 190 to 230 ypg (UTEP) against a team with a strong run defense (100-140 ypg). That's a 70% system. Take the UNDER!

5* AFC South Total of the Year on Jaguars/Titans OVER

We are getting some great value here, as the books have clearly adjusted to the performances of these two teams the last two week. The Jaguars put up just 12-points on the road against the Ravens after scoring just 13 at home against Houston, while the Titans scored 11 last week against the Jets and only 7 the week prior against the Giants.

As bad as these two offenses have been, the defenses have been equally as bad. Tennessee comes in 29th in total defense (378.7 ypg) and Jacksonville is right behind at 28th (372.6 ypg). Even with this being a rare nationally televised game for these two teams, I just don't see the defensive intensity being there.

Another key here here is that both of these offenses struggle to run the football, which is going to have both teams throwing early and often. With neither defense being all that good against the pass, it should lead to a lot of big plays down the field. I'm also expecting there to be a few turnovers that lead to quick scores.

A lot of time when two bad teams square off it ends up being a lot higher scoring game than what you expect and that has to do with their just not being the same energy and motivation when you are going up against another bad team.

OVER is 11-3 in Titans last 14 after scoring 14 points or less in their last game and 9-1 in their last 10 when they have scored 17 or less in each of their last two games. OVER is also 5-1 in Jacksonville's last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

Adding to all of this is a nice system in play. OVER is 73-40 since 1983 in games played in the month of December where you have a home team that is off a road cover where the team lost outright as an underdog. That's a 65% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER

The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field.

Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204.

OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* Saints/Bears MNF Total NO BRAINER on OVER

I look for the Bears/Saints to have no problem surpassing this total, as both teams are struggling big time on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans has allowed at least 27 points in each of their last 5 games, while Chicago comes in giving up a 29.1 ppg, including 75 the past two weeks in back-to-back losses to the Lions and Cowboys.

The Saints come in averaging 26.8 ppg on the road and are giving up an average of 27.8 away from home. It's resulted in 5 of New Orleans 6 road games finishing OVER the total. Defensively the Bears are in a tough spot here, as there's not a lot of motivation here with Chicago being eliminated from the playoffs. This is the perfect matchup for the Saints offense to get back on track.

As for the Bears offense, I look for Cutler and company to come out relaxed and looking to take a few more chances than normal with nothing to lose. That should lead to some big plays and quick scores and likely some turnovers that result in quick scores for the Saints.

Adding to the advantages for both offenses is that we have two top 10 passing attacks going up against two of the worst pass defenses. New Orleans comes in ranked 3rd in passing (297.3 ypg), while the Bears are 10th at (254.2 ypg). The Saints are 30th against the pass (265.2 ypg) and Chicago is 31st (265.5 ypg).

OVER is 6-0 this season when the Saints come in having failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, 8-1 in Chicago's last 9 games when listed as an underdog and 11-1 in the Bears last 12 after playing their last game at home. OVER is also 5-0 in the Bears last 5 games in the month of December and 9-4 in the Saints last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. These trends combine to from a 87% (39-6) system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206

While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home.

Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206.

OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER!

4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York.

The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season.

UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Week 15 Total Annihilator on Broncos/Chargers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in San Diego this Sunday between Peyton Manning the Broncos and Philip Rivers and the Chargers. These two teams combined for 56 points and 731 yards of total offense in the first meeting and that was neither team scoring at all in the 1st quarter. 

Denver's offense has been held in check the last couple of weeks by two of the better pass defenses in the league in Kansas City (2nd) and Buffalo (5th). While San Diego's defense ranks 8th against the pass, they just gave up 310 passing yards to Tom Brady and the Patriots last week and Manning carved them up the first meeting, completing 25 or 35 attempts for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns.

One of the big keys here is that Denver will be getting back star tight end Julius Thomas, who despite missing the last 3 games still leads the team with 12 touchdown receptions. Getting him back not only increases the Broncos productivity in the red zone, but it forces defenses from throwing all their coverage at Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

As for the Chargers offense, this is a good matchup for them. The strength of Denver's defense is stopping the run. Just last week they allowed Buffalo's Kyle Orton to complete 38 of 57 attempts for 355 yards. While Rivers had two costly interceptions in that first meeting against Denver, he completed 30 of 41 attempts (73%) for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns. I look for him to have even more success this time around at home, as the Chargers should have no problem scoring at least 24 points.

OVER is 30-9 in Denver's last 39 games against a team with a winning record,  9-1 in the Broncos' last 10 games against teams who are winning 60% to 75% of their games and 8-1 in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 or more in row. OVER is also 8-2 in the Chargers last 10 after they scored less than 15 in their last game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (55-13) system. Take the OVER!

4* Army/Navy Rivalry Game of the Month on UNDER 58

Each of the last 8 meetings in this series have finished below the total and I’m expecting that streak to continue. The most points during this stretch that these two have combined for is 48 (2010 & 2011). The average score in the last 22 meetings is a mere 49 points.

One of the big reasons that we see such a huge total is both defenses are statistically two of the worst in the country. Navy comes in ranked 87th in total defense (426.3 ypg) and Army is 98th (444.4 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Midshipmen are allowing 29.9 ppg and the Black Knights are giving up 34.4 ppg. Most of the public will look at these numbers and won’t think twice about taking the over, without giving any consideration to the history of this series.

The key here is that this is one of the biggest rivalries that there is in college football and both teams are going to give everything they have to win this game. Navy has shown no signs of being content with their winning streak in the series and it goes without saying that Army is going to treat this like their Super Bowl.

A huge factor here that I think gets overlooked is that both of these teams run the triple-option attack, which means both teams are very familiar with not only how to operate it offensively, but the keys to stopping it. This is why you can’t look too much into the poor defensive numbers that these two teams have put up against the more conventional offenses that they go up against during the course of the regular season.

Two other things that favor into this one going under the total is that both teams have had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup. Navy was off last week and will be playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 15, while Army has had a full two weeks off coming into this one. The other key is that both teams almost exclusively only run the football, which means the clock is going to be running constantly. That’s going to limit the amount of opportunities that both teams have to score.

UNDER is 12-2 in Army’s last 14 road games against excellent rushing teams who average 5.25 or more yards/carry and 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 24-10 in Navy’s last 34 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 when playing against a team that’s won just 25% to 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (50-12) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Cardinals/Rams NFL Total No Brainer on OVER

I think we are seeing a major overreaction from the books with this total. As impressive as the Rams back-to-back shutouts are, I'm confident the Cardinals will put up some points. The last time a team shutout three straight opponents was 38 years ago. Arizona's offense may be without Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington, but Drew Stanton is getting more an more comfortable in the offense and second-year back Kerwynn Williams is coming off a 100-yard performance against the Chiefs last week. These two teams combined for 45 points back in Week 10 and have scored at least 40 in each of the last 4 meetings.

One of the big reasons that I look for the Rams to not be as effective defensively is the short rest that comes with these Thursday night games. These prime time games have seen a number of high scoring games.

Another factor here that I believe will lead to this game going over the total is turnovers. These are two of the better defenses in the league at forcing the opposing team into mistakes. Arizona and St Louis are tied with 23 takeaways a piece and with two below average quarterbacks there's going to be some costly mistakes that lead to quick points.

OVER is 22-9 in the Rams last 31 home games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, 21-9 in their last 30 off 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread and 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

We also see a strong system in play. OVER is 42-18 since 1983 in games where you have an average rushing team (95-125 ypg) that has allowed 75 or less rushing yards and are going up against a strong run defense (70-95 ypg) at least 9 games in the season. That's a 70% system back this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER

With the Grizzlies having lost two of their last three, including a 101-107 home loss to the Spurs last Friday, I look for Memphis to be all business against the Mavericks tonight, especially considering Dallas took 3 of 4 against the Grizzlies last year. With the Mavs coming in leading the league in scoring at 110.6 ppg, I believe it's resulted in an inflated total here. Memphis has the leagues' best defense, allowing just 93.5 ppg. Look for the Grizzlies to slow this game way down and really make Dallas work on both sides of the ball.

It's also worth noting that this will be the Grizzlies 3rd straight home game and they are well rested. Memphis hasn't played back-to-back games since early November. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 12-2 the Grizzlies last 14 games after playing two straight games as a home favorite. Average score in these games is just 184.1.

While the Mavericks have went over the total in 13 of 22 games this season, the UNDER is 5-2 in Dallas' last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 30-8 since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more with a road team that has gone over the total in 5 or more consecutive games who are an excellent offensive team (102+ ppg) and average defensively (92-98 ppg). That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NFL Week 14 Total Annihilator on Bills/Broncos OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game this Sunday between the Broncos and Bills. The average combined score in Denver home games this season is 57.8 points. The only game that failed to see at least 50 points was their Week 2 home contest against the Chiefs, who are very familiar with this team playing them twice a year inside the division.

While the Bills come into this contest with one of the top defenses in the league, this will be the first time they have faced Peyton Manning since he teamed up with the Broncos. Tom Brady and the Patriots torched this Bills defense for 37 points on 396 yards of total offense in Buffalo earlier this season and I look for Denver to put up similar numbers here.

One of the key factors here is that it's extremely difficult for opposing teams to play well in the thin air of Mile High Stadium, especially when they aren't familiar with it. There's just too many weapons on this Denver offense for the Buffalo to contain and while they lead the league in sacks, Manning is one of the best in the game at feeling the pressure and avoiding getting hit.

A huge factor in why I like this game to finish above the mark is that both of these offenses are going to have to throw the ball a ton. Buffalo is 7th in the league against the run (96.3 ypg) and Denver is 2nd (72.7 ypg).

OVER is 13-4 in the Broncos last 17 games when playing against a team with a winning record, 17-7 in their last 24 home games and 16-4 in their last 20 after playing their previous game on the road. The OVER is also a perfect 6-0 in Buffalo's last 6 road games off a SU win. These trends combine to form a 78% (52-15) system. Take the OVER!

4* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Sunday's matchup between the Wizards and Celtics. This is an early tip-off for the NBA and I think it's going to have both not playing up to their full potential. Washington has been the better of the two teams and should be able to dictate the tempo. The Wizards are only giving up 92.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Celtics have been playing better defensively of late. They held Detroit to just 102 (88 in regulation) and the Lakers to just 96 in their last two games.

UNDER is 43-26 over the last 3 seasons when Washington takes on a up-tempo team who averages 83 or more shots. It's also 32-14 in the Celtics last 46 home games after two straight covers as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 since 1996 with a total of 200 or more where you have a road team off 3 straight blowout wins by 15 or more points. That's a 81% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* Wisconsin/Ohio State Big Ten Total of the Year on UNDER

I don't think the books have adjusted this total near enough to make up for the loss of Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. A big reason for that is likely due to the Big Ten Championship Game having produced some high-scoring games. Wisconsin and Michigan State combined for 81 points in 2011, Wisconsin and Nebraska combined for 101 in 2012 and last year Ohio State and Michigan State put up 58. I'm expecting a complete reversal, as I see this being an extremely low-scoring defensive battle.

With Ohio State having to turn to sophomore Cardale Jones in what will be his first start, I look for them to simply the playbook and try and take as much pressure off of him as they can by running the football. While Wisconsin has the 8th ranked run defense, the Buckeyes come in 12th in the country in rushing at 257.4 ypg and are averaging 5.6 yards/carry against teams that on average only allow 4.4. I believe that Ohio State is going to be able to have just enough success on the ground to sustain some drives and eat up the clock, but I don't see them being able to convert those drives into touchdowns.

On the flip side of this, I don't think Melvin Gordon and the Badgers are going to run all over the Buckeyes like a lot of people think. Urban Meyer and the Ohio State staff are going to load the box and make Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave make plays, something I don't believe he's going to be able to consistently enough to sustain drives. The other key here is that the Badgers aren't going to abandon the run.

I think both teams have a lot of confidence in their defenses to be able to stop the opposing team. I believe it's going to result in a more conservative approach offensively that has both teams looking to win the field position battle. Take the UNDER!

4* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Game of the Month on UNDER

With Arizona coming in ranked 20th in the country in scoring at 36.7 ppg and Oregon 4th at 45.9 ppg, the public is going to back the over blindly in this game. I believe the value here is with the UNDER. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished below the mark. They combined for just 55 points at Oregon earlier this season.

The thing you have to keep in mind is that the defenses have an even bigger advantage in the rematch, plus anyone who has watched these two teams play, know that Arizona's 3-3-5 defense gives the Ducks all kinds of problems. Oregon has also been playing much better defensively than they were when they two teams played back in early October.

You also have to factor in the magnitude of this game. Oregon is playing to maintain their spot in the playoffs, while the Wildcats are hoping for an upset and some help to get into the playoffs. The intensity is going to be high on both sides, which I believe is going to lead to this game going well below the mark.

UNDER is 10-2 in Oregon's last 12 games against excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game and a perfect 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games against strong passing teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/attempt. You also have to factor in that this game is being played on the grass surface of Levi's Stadium. UNDER is 3-1-1 in Ducks' last 5 games on grass and 4-1 in Wildcats' last 5 games on grass.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 30-8 over the last 10 seasons in games played on a neutral field with a total set at 63 or more points in a matchup involving two teams who are allowing 21-28 ppg. That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!