Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on Colorado/Michigan UNDER

While I think there's some value here with Colorado catching all those points, I believe the real value is on the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. Everyone knows that Michigan is a great defensive team, but you might be surprised to learn it's Colorado who leads the country in total defense, allowing a mere 160.5 yards/game. In comparison, Michigan is giving up 281 ypg. 

Now I know the Buffaloes haven't had a tough first two opponents, but what they did against in-state rival Colorado State in the opener really stands out to me. That game was played on a neutral site and Colorado held them to 225 yards and just 7 points. They also forced 4 turnovers. Note that Colorado State put up 500 yards on them last year and returned 6 starters this season, including starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Coming into the season this looked like the Buffaloes best defense (9 returning starters) in years and it certainly appears to be the case. 

I know Michigan's offense has looked good in their first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the competition. They put up 63 on a Hawaii team that just played the previous week in Australia and 51 on a UCF team that didn't win a single game last year. 

I think points are going to be tough to come by for both teams and each is going to have to work to move the ball down the field. Keep in mind that for this game to go over the total of 56, these two have to average more than two touchdowns (14.0 points) per quarter. I just don't see that happening. Take the UNDER! 

5* AL Central Game of the Month on Tigers/Indians UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here on the total in Friday night's AL Central showdown between the Tigers and Indians. This is a crucial series for both teams. Cleveland is trying to lock down the division title, while Detroit is fighting to catch the Indians and keep pace in the Wild Card race. I expect a playoff type atmosphere and both teams send out their best starters. 

Cleveland gives the ball to Corey Kluber, who has gone 16-9 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 29 starts. Kluber has been dominant at home (3.13 ERA) and comes in with a sizzling 2.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Tigers in his two starts against them this season, allowing a mere 1 run on 7 hits with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. 

Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer, who has been a rookie sensation for the Tigers. Fulmer is 10-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 23 starts. He's been just as good on the road as he has at home, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 15 road starts. He last faced the Indians in Cleveland on 7/6 and allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings. 

It's also worth noting Cleveland is coming off a game where the offense managed just 1 run on 4 hits. The UNDER is 15-4-3 in the Indians last 22 after scoring 2 run or less. UNDER is 22-4 in the Tigers last 26 after giving up 5 or more runs and 7-1 in Fulmer's last 8 starts. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB AL Game of the Week on A's/Royals UNDER 

I really like the value here on the under in the total for tonight's game between the Royals and A's. I know the A's put up 16 runs in the series opener yesterday, but they aren't the type of offense to put those kind of efforts in back-to-back games. In fact, Oakland has scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games and have scored 4 or more in consecutive games just once in the last month. Kansas City is in a bit of an offensive funk of their own, having scored 3 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. 

I also like the starting pitching matchup in this one. The Royals will send out Danny Duffy, who is coming off a strong start at Minnesota, allowing just 2 earned runs with 10 strikeouts and no walks in 6 innings. Duffy has also owned the A's, going 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 4 career starts. Oakland will counter with Jharel Cotton, who was sharp in his MLB debut last week at home against the Angels, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 1/3 innings of work. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Duffy's last 15 starts after he allowed 1 or fewer walks in his previous start and 34-16-1 in his last 51 starts following a team loss in his previous start. UNDER is also 10-2-1 in the A's last 13 road games against a team with a winning road record and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator on White Sox/Twins UNDER

The value here is on the total in this one. We have two starters that are both throwing the ball extremely well in the 2nd half of the season. Chicago's Jose Quintana has rattled off 8 straight quality starts and comes into this game with a 2.82 ERA in 15 road starts this season and a 2.18 ERA over his last 3 outings. Quintana has allowed owned the Twins this season. He's faced them 4 times already and has posted a 2.36 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings over 4 starts. 

Minnesota counters with Ervin Santana. He wasn't sharp in his last start, but I'll give him a pass given it came on the road against the potent Blue Jays offense. Prior to that outing Santana had allowed 3 or fewer runs in 11 straight starts dating back to June. This will be his 22nd career start against Chicago and he's been really good against them of late, allowing 3 runs or less in 5 straight starts. 

UNDER is 11-1 in Quintana's 12 road starts the last 2 seasons when listed as a road favorite of -100 to -150 and 11-1 this season when he's started against a division opponent. UNDER is also 10-1-1 in Santana's last 12 starts during Game 1 of a series and 6-0 in his last 6 when the team he's facing scored 2 runs or less in their previous game. Add it up and that's a Epic 38-3 (93%) System favoring this one going under the mark. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFLX Situational Total Annihilator on Rams/Broncos UNDER

No Analysis With Preseason Games - I combine several different factors when handicapping NFLX games to come up with the best possible plays. The primary criteria involves coaching, quarterback rotation, motivation and depth. This strategy has proven to provide long-term success. 

5* MLB Interleague Total of the Week on Phillies/White Sox OVER

Chicago and Philadelphia should have no problem combining for more than 10 runs in Wednesday's matchup. While the Phillies offense comes into this game struggling, they are poised to put up a big number here against White Sox starter James Shields. After a brief stretch where he threw the ball well, Shields is back to getting torched by opposing offenses. In his last 4 starts, he's allowed 27 earned runs in a mere 14 innings of work. In his last 3 starts, he's served up a ridiculous 9 home runs and struck out just 4 batters. It wouldn't be a shock of the Phillies topped this total on their own. 

However, Chicago should also help push this over the mark. The White Sox just put up 9 runs in yesterday's game and have scored 19 over their last 3 combined. They will be up against Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff, who comes in with an ugly 5.60 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is just 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 road outings. 

OVER is 9-1 in Shields last 10 starts in the month of August and 16-5-2 in the White Sox's last 23 after allowing 2 runs or less. OVER is also 7-2-1 in the Phillies last 10 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 13-4 in their last 17 after giving up 9 or more runs and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! 

5* American League Game of the Week on UNDER 

Sunday's matchup between the Twins and Royals has a low scoring game written all over it. Both starting pitchers are in prime form. Minnesota will send out Ervin Santana, who has a 2.96 ERA in 10 road starts and a 1.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kansas City counters with emerging star Danny Duffy, who is 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts and has a 1.54 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

UNDER is 17-5 in Duffy's last 22 starts in the second half of the season, 14-4 in the Royals last 18 after allowing 1 run or less and 22-8 in their last 30 home games after 3 straight games where they haven't committed an error. UNDER is also 12-2 in the Twins last 14 after a game where they had 10 fewer hits than their opponent and 12-2 in their last 14 road games when revenging 4 or more consecutive losses. Take the UNDER! 

5* AL Central Total of the Month on Sox/Indians UNDER 7.5

All signs point to a low scoring affair tonight between the Indians and White Sox. We have two of the top starters in the AL facing off against each other in this one. Cleveland will send out former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber against the underrated Jose Quintana. 

Kluber comes into this game with a 2.85 ERA and 1.094 WHIP, which is impressive after his slow start to the season. Kluber closed out May with a 4.15 ERA in his first 11 starts. He's been lights out of late, giving up 3 runs or less in 6 straight starts. He was also dominant in his lone start this season against the White Sox, giving up just 1 earned run with 9 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work. 

Quintana has a strong 3.44 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 23 starts. He's been slightly better on the road, with a 3.09 ERA in 10 road outings. He also comes into this game in great form with a 2.14 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Indians in his career, posting a 2.87 ERA in 14 career starts against them. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Quintana's last 11 starts against a division opponent, 11-3 in his last 14 road starts and 10-2 in his last 12 when working on 5 or 6 days of rest. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Indians last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Interleague Total of the Month on Mets/Tigers UNDER

I'll gladly back the UNDER in tonight's showdown between the Tigers and Mets. The series opener features two aces on the mound with Noah Syndergaard of New York and Justin Verlander of Detroit. I don't see either team getting much done at the plate in this one, as these two starters are going to bring their "A" game facing off against another dominant starter. Both teams are also fighting to get in the playoff picture. 

Syndergaard has a 2.50 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 20 starts and a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts. Verlander on the other hand has a 3.54 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 22 starts and a strong 1.57 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Mets last 18 road games as an underdog, 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 12-3 in Syndergaard's last 15 starts in Game 1 of a series. UNDER is also 7-0-1 in the Tigers last 8 off a loss, 10-1 in their last 11 after giving up 5 or more runs and 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the UNDER!

5* MLB AL Total of the Month on Rangers/Orioles UNDER 

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here between the Rangers and Orioles on Tuesday. While these are two explosive offenses, we have two starters here that are more than capable of keeping them in check. 

Texas will send out Yu Darvish, who has continued to get better with each start since rejoining the rotation. He's got a 3.31 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 outings. The same can be said for Orioles starter Dylan Bundy. After a poor first outing, he's been sharp in his last two outings, giving up just 3 earned runs on 7 hits with 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings of work. 

The UNDER is 16-3 in Darvish's last 19 starts against AL East opponents, 6-1 in Texas' last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-0 in the Orioles last 8 home games, 14-2 in their last 16 against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on Cardinals/Marlins UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER in today's afternoon showdown between the Marlins and Cardinals. The first 3 games of this series have been high-scoring, which has forced oddsmakers to set this total a little higher than it should be. 

We have two strong starters on the mound, who are both in great form. St Louis will send out Carlos Martinez, who has a 2.87 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 19 starts. Martinez also owns a 1.89 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 8 road starts and a strong 2.65 ERA over his last 3 outings. Miami will counter with newly acquired Andrew Cashner, who has a 2.55 ERA and sensational 0.792 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That includes an outing at St Louis, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. 

UNDER is 23-9 in the Marlins last 32 home games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs and 12-2 in Martinez's last 14 starts after giving up 2 or less earned runs in each of his last 2 outings. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Phillies/Braves UNDER

I don't see either of these teams doing much offensively with the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one. Not to mention we have two of the worst offenses in baseball facing off against one another. 

The Phillies will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who has a 2.25 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hellickson has been throwing the ball extremely well since the middle of June, as he's allowed 3 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 7 outings. Atlanta counters with Julio Teheran, who has a 2.71 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 20 starts and is coming off back-to-back starts where he didn't allow a run. Teheran has also owned the Phillies, with a 2.26 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 11 career starts against them. In his last 4 outings against Philadelphia, he's allowed 4 runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. 

The Braves won 2-1 last night and the UNDER is 15-4 in the Phillies last 19 after a loss by runs or less. UNDER is also 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts and 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. Take Atlanta! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Angels/Astros UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Friday's showdown between the Angels and Astros. Los Angeles will send out Matt Shoemaker, who is coming off an absolutely dominating performance against the White Sox in his last start, striking out 13 in a complete game shutout. Shoemaker has faced Houston 3 times this season and has been very good in all 3 outings, giving up just 5 runs in 21 2/3 innings of work (24 strikeouts). 

The Astros will counter with Lance McCullers, who has been throwing the ball well of late, posting a 2.76 ERA in his last 3 starts. McCullers also has a 2.61 ERA in 7 home starts this season and owns a 2.35 ERA in 5 career starts against the Angels. 

UNDER is 7-0 in McCullers last 7 home starts as a favorite of -110 or more, 12-1 in Houston's last 13 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game and 5-1 in Shoemakers last 6 starts following a quality start in his last outing. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Week on Braves/Phillies OVER 

Look for a high-scoring game Monday between the Phillies and Braves. Atlanta is swinging a hot bat, as they have scored 24 runs over their last 4. Same thing with the Phillies, who are averaging 5.9 runs and hitting a scorching .330 as a team over their last 7 games. 

OVER is 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 5-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less and 8-2 in their last 10 off a win. OVER is also 4-1 in the Braves last 5 against a team that scored 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Astros/Angels OVER 

I look for a lot of fireworks from both offenses in today's matchup between the Angels and Astros. Both teams will send out starters who are struggling to find their groove in 2016. Houston gives the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while LA counters with Jered Weaver. 

Keuchel may be the reigning AL Cy Young winner, but he's looked nothing like it this season. He's 4-9 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 16 starts. He's been even worse on the road, where he's 3-6 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 10 starts. Weaver is 6-6 with a 5.24 WERA and 1.444 WHIP in 15 starts and has a 5.71 ERA in 8 starts at home. 

OVER is 13-3 in the Angels last 16 when revenging two straight home losses and 8-2 in their last 10 at home overall. OVER is also 6-1 in Houston's last 7 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take the OVER! 

5* MLB Over/Under Total of the Week on Dodgers/Pirates UNDER 

We are catching big time value here on the UNDER in Saturday's matchup between the Dodgers and Pirates. The reason being that Pittsburgh will be starting Jeff Locke. A quick look at his numbers and you can see reason to be concerned. He's got a 5.44 ERA overall in 14 starts and a 10.56 ERA in his last 3 outings. 

However, Locke was dominant in his last start, which came at home. He allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings of work. That continues a trend of him pitching well at home, where he's 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 6 starts. He's in a great spot to succeed, as the Dodgers are only averaging 3.2 runs/game and hitting just .217 as a team against left-handed starters this season. In those 15 games against southpaw starters, the UNDER is a dominant 11-4. 

Los Angeles will counter with one of the more underrated starters in baseball in Kenta Maeda. Despite a so-so 6-4 record, Maeda has a very good 2.65 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 14 starts. He could easily have 10 wins right now. He's 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 6 road starts and has a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB No Limit Game of the Week on Reds/Rangers UNDER 

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total between the Reds and Rangers. The wind will be blowing straight in from right at close to 15 mph and we have two very capable starters on the mound. 

Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 14 starts. Hamels has been lights of late, posting a 1.25 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also has a 1.79 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Reds. 

Cincinnati will counter with Daniel Straily, who has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 12 starts. Straily was hit hard in his previous outing at Atlanta, but has shown the ability to bounce back after a bad outing. He had allowed just 3 runs on 7 hits in his previous two starts. I look for him to come out focused here against a top level starter like Hamels and keep the Rangers offense in check enough to keep this under the total. 

UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Reds last 9 interleague games, 3-1-1 in the Rangers last 5 interleague home games and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Vegas Insider Top Play on Mariners/Tigers OVER 

I've got no problem playing the OVER in today's matchup between the Tigers and Mariners. Winds will be blowing straight out to left at 15+ mph when this one gets underway and we have two mediocre starters taking the mound against two very capable offenses that feature a lot of power. 

Detroit will give the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who is 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in 13 starts. Pelfrey has been even worse at home, where he has a 6.61 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 6 starts. Seattle give the ball to Nate Karns, who has a 4.66 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 7 road starts and a 6.75 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The Tigers are averaging 6.0 runs/game over their last 7 and 5.2 runs/game at home this season. Mariners are scoring 5.3 runs/game on the road and 5.5 against right-handed starters. 

OVER is 14-4 in Detroit's last 18 home games with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs, 11-3-3 in their last 17 at home against a right-handed starter and 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less. OVER is also 6-1 in Seattle's last 7 during Game 1 of a series and 5-1-1 in Karn's last 7 starts. Take the OVER! 

5* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockies/Marlins UNDER

I'm taking the UNDER in today's matchup between the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado will send out their ace in Tyler Chatwood, who has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball when he takes the mound away from Coors Field. Chatwood is 5-0 with a ridiculous 0.65 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 6 road starts. 

Miami will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who is better than his overall numbers would suggest. Chen has a history of pitching well in day games. Over the 3 previous seasons his ERA is just 3.74 in day games and he was dominant in his lone day start this season, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings of work. You also have to keep in mind the Rockies aren't near the offensive team on the road, where they are hitting just .246 with a .297 OBP this season. 

UNDER is 6-0 in Chatwood's 6 starts this season in day games and a solid 20-7 in the Marlins last 27 home games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nationals/Padres UNDER 

We are catching a great number here to back the UNDER in Thursday's matchup between the Nationals and Padres. Washington is coming off an emotional 5-4 win in 12 innings against the Cubs last night. I look for a letdown here after that long flight from D.C. to San Diego. 

That's a big reason why I'm okay with taking the UNDER even with the Padres sending out Erik Johnson and his 7.71 ERA and 1.897 WHIP. The thing to keep in mind with Johnson is that his first two starts came with the White Sox against AL teams and his only start with San Diego was at Coors Field against the Rockies. Keep in mind this is a guy who had a 3.34 ERA in 6 starts last year with Chicago and should really benefit from pitching at Petco Park. 

I also don't see a lot of offense coming from the Padres in this one, as Washington will send out Tanner Roark, who is quietly putting together a great season. Roark has a 2.92 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 13 starts and is coming off 7 shutout innings against the Phillies in his last start. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Yankees/Twins UNDER 

I'm backing the UNDER in today's matchup between the Yankees and Twins. This total has simply been set too high by the books. New York has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and will be playing on no rest after finishing up a quick 2-game series in Colorado. 

Minnesota will send out Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.49 ERA and 1.670 WHIP in 5 starts, which is a big reason we are catching a great number here on the total. However, Gibson has pitched well at home, posting a 3.93 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 3 starts. 

The key here is that even if the Yankees get their offense going to some degree, the Twins figure to have a hard time scoring against C.C. Sabathia, who has been better than anyone expected in 2016. Sabathia has a 2.28 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 10 starts. In his last 6 starts, he's given a mere 3 earned runs on 23 hits in 38 innings of work. Twins are hitting just .238 as a team against left-handed starters. Take the UNDER! 

4* Late Night MLB Total Annihilator on Twins/Angels OVER 

All signs point to a high scoring game Wednesday night between the Angels and Twins. These might not be two of the best offenses in the big leagues, but both come in swinging the bat well and each will be facing a below-average starter. 

Minnesota gives the ball to Tyler Duffey, who is 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 9 starts. Duffey has been much worse of late, posting a 8.62 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Angels counter with Hector Santiago, who has a 7.67 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 6 home starts and a 10.50 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Twins last 20 games after a game where their bullpen didn't allow a run and 10-2 in 12 June games this season. OVER is also 6-1 in the Angels' last 7 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series. Take the OVER! 

5* AL Central Total of the Month on Tigers/White Sox UNDER 

Oddsmakers have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the White Sox and Tigers. We are seeing an inflated number here after these two teams combined for 19 runs on 30 hits in yesterday's 10-9 win for Chicago. 

Detroit is going to send out Jordan Zimmermann, who is poised for a big bounce back start after getting torched by the Blue Jays at home in his last outing. Zimmermann is 8-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts and has been at his best on the road, where he's 3-1 with a 1.37 ERA. Zimmermann also has a 1.83 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 3 career starts against the White Sox. 

Chicago will counter with Miguel Gonzalez, who has quietly pitched extremely well when given the chance. Gonzalez has a 3.69 ERA in 7 starts, including a 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his only two previous outings at home this season. 

UNDER is 31-13 in the White Sox's last 44 home games off a win, 20-8 in their last 28 home games after hitting .240 or worse over a 15-game span and 32-12 in their last 44 home games after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. Take the UNDER! 

5* MLB Total No Brainer on Cardinals/Pirates OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring series finale today between the Cardinals and Pirates. We have two average starters on the mound with Mike Leake and Jon Niese, going up against two very capable offenses with the wind blowing straight out to right center at close to 15 mph. 

Last time Leake faced the Pirates he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Niese's last start against the Cardinals wasn't much better, as he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings of a 6-5 win. 

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games and 7-0 in their last 7 home games with a total set at 8.5 to 10 runs. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Phillies/Nationals UNDER 

The total has been set too high for tonight's series opener between the Nationals and Phillies. Both of these teams come in off a game where they managed just 1 run and we have two really good starters in great form facing off against each other. 

The Nationals will send out Stephen Strasburg, who is 9-0 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 12 starts. He's allowed 2 or fewer runs in all but 4 starts and owns a 2.01 ERA in 6 starts against division opponents. Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson, who hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in each of his last 6 outings. In his last two starts against the Nationals, both this season, he's given up 1 run on 5 hits with 16 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. 

UNDER is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games against a starter who is allowing 5.5 or less hits per start, 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in Hellickson's last 4 starts against the NL East. Take the UNDER! 

5* AL West Total of the Month on Astros/Rangers UNDER 

I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in Thursday's series finale between the Rangers and Astros. It's a getaway game for both teams. Houston will leave for Tampa Bay after this one is over and the Rangers go west to Seattle. Add in the early start time and I just don't see the focus being there for either side in this one. 

We also have a couple of capable starters facing off, who are going to benefit from the wind blowing straight in from center. Texas will send out Martin Perez, who has a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts and a 2.55 ERA in 7 starts at home. Houston will counter with Collin McHugh, who has thrown the ball much better of late and is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA in 3 starts against division opponents. 

UNDER is 33-17 in the Astros last 48 after playing in a game where they scored an allowed 3 runs or less and 9-1 in their last 10 against a starter that gives up 5.5 or less hits/game. UNDER is 11-4 in Perez's last 15 starts after a Quality Start in his last outing and 4-1 in Texas' last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Late Night Total Annihilator on Rockies/Dodgers UNDER

You might not think of a pitchers duel with Tyler Chatwood and Mike Bolsinger facing off, but I look for a low-scoring game tonight between the Rockies and Dodgers. Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has an MLB-best 0.53 ERA on the road, as he's 4-0 in 5 road starts. Posting a sensational 0.891 WHIP in those 5 outings. 

He faces a Dodgers offense that has been struggling of late. LA is hitting just .192 as a team over their last 7. The Dodgers also only average 3.8 runs/game at home on the season. Bolsinger has a strong 3.17 ERA and 0.705 WHIP at home and in his most recent home start against the Rockies, he allowed just 3 hits over 6 scoreless innings. It's also worth mentioning that both bullpens have been strong this season. Rockies bullpen has a 2.79 ERA on the road and the Dodgers has a 2.44 ERA at home. 

UNDER is 4-1 in Chatwood's last 5 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Dodgers last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record and 25-9 in their last 34 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Padres/Braves OVER 

We are catching a low total here for today's matchup between the Padres and Braves. While you wouldn't expect a high-scoring game with Atlanta and San Diego facing off, the pitching matchup should allow for plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. 

Atlanta will send out Williams Perez, who has a 4.86 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 3 road starts. Perez averages fewer than 6 innings per start and the Braves' bullpen has a less than impressive 4.40 ERA and 1.456 WHIP on the season. Padres counter with Christian Friedrich, who has a 5.40 ERA and 2.641 WHIP in 2 home starts. Freidrich only averages 5 1/3 innings per start and San Diego's bullpen has an ugly 5.26 ERA at home. 

OVER is 31-19 in the Padres last 50 games after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight games and 8-0 in Friedrich's last 8 home starts in the first half of the season. OVER is also 4-1 in Braves last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 6-1 in Perez's last 7 road starts. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Yankees/Blue Jays UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total between the Yankees and Blue Jays. New York will send out their ace in Masahiro Tanaka, while Toronto counters with Aaron Sanchez. Tanaka has a 1.34 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 5 road starts, all 5 of which have finished UNDER the total. Sanchez has a 3.29 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 10 starts overall. 

Both starters also have a strong history against the opposition. Tanaka has a 2.37 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Blue Jays, while Sanchez has a 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP against the Yankees. 

UNDER is 20-7 in New York's last 27 when revenging 2 straight losses where they scored 2 or less runs and 22-9 in the Blue Jays last 31 after going UNDER the total in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Dodgers/Mets UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with the total in Saturday's showdown between the Dodgers and Mets. Neither of these offenses are all that great and we have two pitchers in a prime position to succeed. 

The Mets give the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who has arguably been New York's best starter so far this season. Syndergaard has a 1.94 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 9 starts. He's been especially dominant of late, posting a 0.82 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Dodgers will counter with Kenta Maeda, who has a 3.29 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 9 starts. Maeda has been at his best on the road, where he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 4 starts. Look for both offenses to struggle to get anything going in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Total Annihilator on Braves/Phillies UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring affair tonight between the Phillies and Braves. Not only do we have two anemic offenses facing off in this one, but we have two underrated starters taking the mound in Atlanta's Matt Wisler and Philadelphia's Aaron Nola. 

Wisler has a 3.21 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 7 starts and has seen the UNDER cash in 5 of those outings. The UNDER is a perfect 3-0 when Wisler takes the mound on the road, as his ERA is an even better 2.11. Wisler also has a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts, as he's pitched into the 8th inning in all 3 outings. Nola has a 2.89 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in 8 starts, 6 of which have finished UNDER the total. Nola has also been lights out of late with a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 outings. 

UNDER is 15-5 in the Phillies last 20 home games in the month of May, 6-0-1 in Nola's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record and 6-1 in Wisler's last 7 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockies/Cardinals UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with today's total between the Rockies and Cardinals. Colorado will send out one of their prized young pitching prospects in Jon Gray, while St Louis counters with Michael Wacha. 

Gray got off to a rough start in 2016, giving up 11 runs on 16 hits in just 8 2/3 innings over 2 home starts. Since then he's been on top of his game, allowing just 4 runs on 10 hits in 20 innings over his last 3 starts. He's been especially dominant on the road, where he's got a 1.38 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in 2 starts. He faces a struggling Cardinals offense that has scored just 3 combined runs in the first 2 games of this series. 

Wacha has been lights out at home this season, giving up just 6 earned runs in 26 innings. That adds up to a 2.08 ERA and 1.115 in 4 starts. Wacha's only start at home against he Rockies last year was a good one. He tossed 7 scoreless innings, allowing just 4 hits and striking out 7. Colorado is also in a funk offensively, as they have scored just 3 runs in the first 2 in the series and were shutout yesterday against the struggling Adam Wainwright. 

UNDER is 40-19 in the Cardinals last 49 home games after going UNDER the total in each of their previous two games. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Rockies last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in Gray's last 4 road starts. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER

Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. 

Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. 

OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!  

4* MLB Total No Brainer on Astros/White Sox UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for tonight's matchup between the Astros and White Sox. Chicago will send out Mat Latos, who has struggled a bit of late, but still owns a 3.40 ERA in 7 starts. Latos has been really good at home, where his ERA is at 2.60 in 3 outings. He's also 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 7 starts against Houston. 

The Astros will counter with the red-hot Doug Fister, who after a miserable April, has compiled a 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 3 May starts. Fister also has had success against the opposition, posting a 3.72 ERA in 9 career starts against the White Sox. 

UNDER is 34-13 in Chicago's last 47 home games in the 1st half of the season and 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a right-handed starter. UNDER is also 36-17-6 in the Astros' last 59 against the AL Central and 41-21 in Fister's last 62 starts when he's working on 5 or 6 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Situational Total Annihilator on Mariners/Orioles UNDER

I cashed the OVER on the Mariners/Orioles series opener last night, but now the value is worth the UNDER in Game 2. Today's matchup has a pitchers duel written all over it with Taijuan Walker facing off against Chris Tillman. 

Walker comes into this game with a 2.63 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 7 starts. In those 7 starts the UNDER has gone 5-1-1. Tillman has a 2.58 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 8 starts, including a 1.89 ERA over 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in Tillman's starts at home this season. It's also worth pointing out that Tillman has a 2.98 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over 8 career starts against the Mariners. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-1-1 in the Mariners last 7 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* American League Total of the Year on Orioles/Mariners OVER 

I really like the OVER in today's matchup between the Mariners and Orioles. We have two struggling pitchers on the mound in Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez and Seattle's Wade Miley. Jimenez has a 4.87 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in 7 starts, while Miley has a 4.91 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 7 starts. It's also worth noting that Miley has really struggled on the road, where his ERA is 5.48 and WHIP jumps up to 1.522. 

We also have to more than capable offenses here. The Mariners are averaging 5.2 runs/game on the road and had scored 5 or more runs in 5 straight before getting shutout in their last game. The Orioles are scoring 6.7 runs/game over their last 7 and 5.2 runs/game on the season against left-handed starts. 

OVER is a perfect 9-0 the last 3 seasons when you have a road team that was just swept in a 3-game series by a division rival, who is winning 54% to 62% or more of their games on the season. OVER is also 15-5 in the Orioles last 20 home games against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better and 7-1-1 in their last 9 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Situational Total Annihilator on Reds/Indians UNDER

I really like the value here in today's total between the Reds and Indians. Conditions are going to be favoring a low-scoring game, as winds are expected to be blowing in at close to 10 mph and temperatures are expected in the mid 50's. 

The reason we are catching value with this total is the Reds will send out Alfredo Simon and his 7.96 ERA and 1.807 WHIP against a Indians team that just put up 15 runs yesterday. However, Simon has pitched much better than his overall numbers of late. He allowed just 3 runs in 7 2/3 innings on 5/5 and 3 runs on 3 hits in 6 innings last time out. Cleveland will counter with Danny Salazar, who has a sensational 1.90 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 7 starts. Salazar has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a start and have held opponents to 2 or less in 6 of his 7 starts. 

UNDER is 7-1-2 in Salazar's last 10 starts and 15-5-2 in this last 22 overall. UNDER is also 4-0-1 in his last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-1 in the Reds last 5 interleague road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Twins/Indians UNDER

I'm backing the UNDER in today's matchup between the Indians and Twins. Conditions are going to be less than ideal for scoring in this contest. Winds are expected to be blowing straight in from left field at close to 20 mph and temperatures are expected to be in the low 50's. The ball simply isn't going to be traveling well and it's going to allow both starters to attack the zone. 

Cleveland will send out their ace Corey Kluber, who has shown signs of returning to the Cy Young form of 2014. Kluber's last home start resulted in a complete game shutout of the Tigers and now he faces a Twins team that has struggled offensively and is scoring just 2.7 runs/game against division opponents. Minnesota will counter with Ervin Santana, who comes in with a respectable 3.86 ERA in 5 starts. 

UNDER is 12-2 in Kluber's last 14 starts against an opponent that is being outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 5-1 in Santana's last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in his last 6 against the AL Central. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. 

Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. 

UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Situational Total Annihilator on Tigers/Indians UNDER

I'm backing the UNDER in today's series finale between the Tigers and Indians. Conditions will be heavily favoring a low-scoring game, as winds are expected to be blowing straight in from center at close to 15 mph. Temperatures are also expected to be in the low 50's. 

The key here is we are getting great value on the UNDER due to a couple of starters taking the mound that aren't big names. Detroit will send out Michael Fulmer, who will be making just his second big-league start (pitched well in his debut). Cleveland's Trevor Bauer will also be making his second start of the season. While he didn't pitch great in his first outing, he threw the ball better than his final numbers would suggest. 

UNDER is 12-3 in Bauer's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in his last 9 following a team loss last time out. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator on Tigers/Indians UNDER

I'm backing the UNDER in tonight's AL Central clash between the Tigers and Indians. Today's conditions are going to be less than ideal for scoring. Temperatures will be in the mid 50's with wind blowing in from center. 

Detroit will give the rock to Anibal Sanchez, who has a strong history against the Indians. Sanchez owns a 3.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 10 career starts, including a 2.39 ERA in his last 2 starts at Cleveland's Progressive Field. The Indians counter with Corey Kluber, who is coming off back-to-back dominant starts. Kluber allowed just 1 run on 2 hits with 10 strikeouts at Detroit on 4/23 and then followed that up by allowing just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 7 innings at Philadelphia. Kluber has held the Tigers to 3 or fewer runs in 9 of his last 10 starts against them. 

UNDER is 15-3 in Sanchez's last 18 road starts in the month of May and 23-9 in the Tigers last 32 after posting an OBP of at least .375 as a team in their last 5 games. UNDER is also 20-7 in Kluber's last 27 starts following a team loss in his last start. Take the UNDER!

4* MLB Early Bird Total Annihilator on Braves/Mets UNDER

I'm backing the UNDER in today's early matchup between the Braves and Mets. We have two strong starters on the mound with conditions favoring a low-scoring game. Wind will be blowing in from center at close to 10 mph and temperatures expected in the low 50's. 

Atlanta gives the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who has a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 4 starts, with an even stronger 2.76 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 3 road starts. New York counters with Steven Matz, who has been lights out of late. Matz has allowed just 2 runs in his last 3 starts, which spans 19 1/3 innings. Both starters will be facing below-average offenses. Mets are scoring just 3.8 runs and hitting .224 as a team at home and the Braves are scoring just 3.2 runs and hitting .228 as a team on the season. 

UNDER is 10-1 in Chacin's last 11 starts as a road dog of +150 or more, 8-3-2 in Atlanta's last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less and 4-1 in the Mets last 5 following a loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Total Annihilator on Dodgers/Rays UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with the total for tonight's series opener between the Rays and Dodgers. Both of these offenses are really struggling to push runs across the plate. Los Angeles is averaging a mere 1.7 runs/game over their last 7 and Tampa Bay isn't much better at 2.9 over their last 7. It's also worth noting that the Rays are scoring just 2.6 and allowing only 3.1 runs/game at home this season. 

Tampa Bay will send out Matt Moore, who is looking more and more like the promising young starter from a couple years back. Moore has a 3.66 ERA and strong 1.031 WHIP over 5 starts with a 3.20 ERA and 0.908 WHIP at home. He will facing a Yankees offense that is hitting just .212 against left-handed starters this season. 

Dodgers counter with Scott Kazmir, who has had a roller coaster first 5 starts to 2016. Kazmir comes in with an ugly 5.76 ERA and 1.400 WHIP, but was much better in his last outing against the Marlins, giving up just 2 runs on 7 hits with 6 strikeouts in 6 innings. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Rays 13 games played at night this season and 12-2 in their last 14 at home with a total of 7 to 8.5. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Dodgers last 14 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 and 22-9 in their last 31 road games after scoring 2 runs or less. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Late Night Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockies/Padres UNDER 

This might seem like a low total given how poorly Colorado starter Jon Gray has pitched so far this season. Gray comes in with a awful 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in 2 starts, but the key thing to keep in mind is both of those starts came at home in hitter friendly Coors Field. The thing to keep in mind with Gray is that he's a big time prospect and last year he had a 8.27 ERA in 5 home starts, compared to a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts on the road. 

I look for Gray to bounce back in a big way in this start. Not only is he facing a bad Padres offense that averages just 3.8 runs/game (only 2.9 at home), but San Diego's Petco Park is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the league, especially at night. I also look for Colorado's offense to struggle in this one, as the Padres counter with their ace James Shields, who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

UNDER is a 51-27 in the Padres last 78 home games after a combined score of 2 runs or less and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after playing 3 or more straight games on the road. UNDER is also 33-13-5 in the Padres last 51 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 games following a win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. 

Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.

UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. 

This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Indians/Phillies UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total between the Phillies and Indians. Cleveland will send out their ace Corey Kluber, who despite an ugly 4.67 ERA overall, has been dominant on the road with a 2.30 ERA and 0.511 WHIP in 2 starts. It also helps that Kluber will be facing an anemic Philadelphia offense that is averaging just 2.4 runs/game at home. 

The Phillies will counter with Adam Morgan, who will be making his season debut. Morgan didn't exactly impress last season with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts, but has pitched very well in the minors to start out 2016. The key here is that Morgan is a southpaw. Cleveland is hitting just .216 as a team and averaging just 2.9 runs/game in the 8 games this season where they have faced a left-handed starter. 

UNDER is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 8-0 in Kluber's last 8 starts against a team that's getting outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Phillies/Nationals UNDER

The books have set the total to high for Thursday's series finale between the Phillies and Nationals. These two teams have scored just 10 runs combined in the first two games and today's starting pitching matchup figures to keep the offenses in check. 

Philadelphia will send out Aaron Nola, who has a 1.39 ERA and 0.714 WHIP over 2 road starts. He was sensational in his last out at Milwaukee, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 innings. Washington counters with Tanner Roark, who has a 2.62 ERA in 4 starts overall and an even better 1.50 ERA in 3 starts at home. 

The conditions here also favor a low scoring game. Temperatures will be in the mid 50's with the wind blowing in from right center. UNDER is 5-1 in Nola's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on the road. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Nationals last 9 following a loss, 16-5-2 in their last 23 against division opponents and 5-1 in Roark's last 6 starts overall. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Reds/Mets OVER

The fact that the Mets have Matt Harvey on the mound has created some value here with the OVER tonight. Harvey is clearly not himself to start the season. He's got a 5.24 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 4 starts. He did hold the Braves to just 2 runs in his last start, but he only lasted 5 innings (threw 101 pitches) and Atlanta's offense is terrible. Cincinnati's offense isn't great, but they should be able to score enough here to push this over the mark. 

On the flip side of this, there's a chance the Mets eclipse this total on their own. New York is averaging 5.9 runs and hitting .299 as a team over their last 7 games. They will be facing a mediocre starter at best in Jon Moscot, who has a 5.06 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 2 starts. Moscot failed to complete 6 innings in both outings and that's bad news for the Reds, who have a bullpen that comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.590 WHIP on the season and 7.81 ERA and 1.735 WHIP on the road. 

OVER is 11-3 in Harvey's last 14 home starts as a favorite of -150 or more and 13-4 in the Mets last 17 as a favorite of -200 or more. OVER is also 6-1-1 in the Reds last 8 road games and 24-9-1 in their last 34 off a loss. Take the OVER! 

3* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pirates/Rockies OVER

This might seem like a big number to back the OVER, but I look for the Pirates and Rockies to have no problem eclipsing this mark. Coors Field is arguably the best hitters park in baseball and the ball we be flying off the bat tonight with winds expected to be blowing straight out to left center at around 20 mph. We saw similar conditions in the Rockies game yesterday against the Dodgers and the two teams combined for 22 runs on 22 hits. 

Pittsburgh is going to send out Jeff Locke, who comes in with a 7.24 ERA and 2.634 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Last time out he allowed 8 runs on 11 hits and 4 walks at San Diego, which is considered a pitchers park. Colorado's Chad Bettis has a solid 3.33 ERA in 4 starts, but he's benefited from having 3 of those starts on the road and the lone home start against soft-hitting San Diego. Pittsburgh comes in averaging 5.0 runs/game and put up 21 over their 3-game series at  Arizona. 

OVER is 31-18 in Locke's last 49 starts and 14-5 in his last 19 when he takes the mound in a night game. OVER is also 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 home games against a left-handed starter. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Situational Total No Brainer on A's/Tigers UNDER 

The books have set the total too high for tonight's series opener between the A's and Tigers. Neither offense comes in swinging the bat well. Oakland managed just 6 runs on 12 hits in their final 2 games at Toronto over the weekend and the Tigers have scored a total of 8 runs in their last 5 games combined. 

I look for both offenses to continue to struggle against today's starters. Oakland will send out Kendall Graveman, who has a 2.04 ERA and 0.906 WHIP in 3 starts. Graveman has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in an outing this season. Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann has been even better, as he's got a 0.00 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Zimmermann has opened the season with 19 1/3 scoreless innings of work. 

Another key factor here is the wind, which will be blowing straight in at close to 15 mph from left field. UNDER is 11-3-1 in the A's last 15 against a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Graveman's last 4 starts against the AL Central. UNDER is also 12-5 in the Tigers last 17 against the AL West and 4-1 in the last 6 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. 

I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. 

UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rangers/White Sox UNDER 

I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER in today's matchup between the Rangers and White Sox. Texas will send out Derek Holland, who comes in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.080 WHIP over his first 3 starts and the White Sox counter with Mat Latos, who has a 0.49 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his first 3 starts. 

Not only do we have two starters who are top of their game to start out the season, but the conditions here heavily favor a low scoring game. The wind will be blowing in at close to 15 mph, which is going to allow both of these pitchers to attack the zone even more. It's also worth nothing that both offenses aren't exactly swinging the bat all that well. Texas has scored 3 or less runs in 3 of their last 4 and the White Sox are averaging just 3.2 runs/game on the season (only 2.7 against left-handed starters). 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Rangers last 18 road games against AL Central opponents, 25-12 in the White Sox last 37 home games with a total of 8 to 8.5 and 26-12 in their last 38 against a left-handed starter. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Early Bird Total No Brainer on Rays/Yankees UNDER 

Great value here with the total in today's matchup between the Yankees and Rays. Tampa Bay will send out Drew Smyly, who has a 2.91 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in 3 starts. New York will counter with Michael Pineda, who is coming off back-to-back strong outings where he's allowed just 4 earned runs with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. 

Another key here is that both starters have pitched well against the opposition in previous meetings. Smyly has a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIp in 3 career starts against the Yankees, while Pineda has a 2.70 ERA and 1.085 WHIP over 7 career starts against the Rays. 

UNDER is 17-5 in the Rays last 22 road games when revenging a 1-run loss and 14-1 in their last 15 after 2 straight road defeats to a division rival. UNDER is also 34-16-1 in the Yankees last 51 following a win and 3-0-1 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mets/Braves UNDER

The books have set the total too high for today's matchup between the Braves and Mets. New York is average at best offensively and the Braves are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. With the wind blowing straight in from left field, runs are going to be hard to come by for both teams. 

We also have two strong starters on the mound. The Mets will send out Steven Matz, who is coming off a dominant performance at Cleveland, where he allowed just 3 hits with 9 strikeouts over 7 scoreless innings. Atlanta will counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who has posted a 2.38 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his first 2 starts. UNDER is 9-1-1 in the Braves last 11 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Early Bird Total No Brainer on Indians/Tigers OVER 

I'm expecting a lot of offense in today's early game between the Indians and Tigers, as we have two starters who are struggling to start out the season. Cleveland's Corey Kluber is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.421 WHIP over 3 starts and Detroit's Anibal Sanchez has a 4.59 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over his first 3 starts. 

Both of these starters have also struggled against the opposition. Kluber has a 4.36 ERA and 1.410 WHIP over 12 career starts against the Tigers. Sanchez has given up 10 runs in his last 3 outings against the Indians. Another key factor here is the wind will be blowing out, which is going to lead to some big innings with home runs between these two offenses. 

OVER is 20-7 in the Tigers last 27 after 3 or more consecutive under and a perfect 7-0 in Sanchez's last 7 starts as a dog of +100 to +150 and 11-3 in his last 14 following a team loss. OVER is also 11-1 in the Indians last 12 after batting .200 or worse over their previous 5 games. BET THE OVER 7.5! 

4* Late Night MLB Total Dominator on Cardinals/Padres UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's series opener between the Cardinals and Padres. San Diego's Petco Park is one of the biggest pitcher parks in the league and it will be even that much harder to score runs tonight with the wind blowing straight in from left field. 

St Louis will give the ball to Adam Wainwright, who has a surprising 8.27 ERA and 1.898 WHIP over his first 3 starts. It's only a matter of time before he returns to being one of the elite starters in the NL and I'm betting it starts tonight. Wainwright has a 1.52 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Padres and San Diego is scoring just 2.7 runs/game at home. 

Padres will counter with Andrew Cashner, who has bounced back nicely after a poor first outing. In his last start, Cashner held the Diamondbacks to just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings of work. Both of Cashner's starts against St Louis came last season and he allowed just 1 earned run on 7 hits over 12 innings of work. Take the UNDER 7! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rays/Red Sox UNDER 

The books have set the total too high for today's game between the Rays and Red Sox. These two teams combined for just 3 runs in yesterday's series opener and neither team comes in swinging the bats well. Boston has scored 3 or less in 3 straight games and are averaging just 3.9 runs/game at home. The Rays have scored 3 or less in 5 of their last 6 and are averaging just 2.8 runs/game on the season. 

Today's pitching matchup features Tampa Bay's Chris Archer against Boston's Rick Porcello. Archer has not looked great early on, but he's not going to keep pitching this poorly and with the way the Red Sox are swinging the bats right now, this is a great spot for him to get things turned around. Porcello has an ugly 5.11 ERA, but has pitched much better than that would suggest. He's got a 0.892 WHIP in his 2 starts and has 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work. 

UNDER is 21-9 in their last 30 road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 and 26-13 in their last 39 after 2 or more consecutive wins. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Red Sox last 29 home games after 2 straight games without a home run and 14-2 in their last 16 after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER

The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. 

Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. 

Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers. 

The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER

I'm expecting an offensive outburst in today's series opener between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Toronto's offense has struggled a bit out of the gate, but are starting to get on track. They put up 11 runs on 18 hits in their last two against the Yankees. Boston also features a potent offense and come in averaging 5.5 runs/game. 

Hard to see either offense being kept in check today. Toronto will send out R.A. Dickey, who gave up 7 runs on 8 hits in a home start against the Red Sox last week. On the flip side of this, Boston gives the ball to Rick Porcello, who gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in his only start this season. Porcello's last 4 starts against the Blue Jays have resulted in 21 runs on 30 hits in just 21 1/3 innings. 

OVER is 9-1 in the Red Sox last 10 after a day off, 8-2-1 in their last 11 games played on Friday and 6-2 in their last 8 against a right-handed starter. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER

The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round. 

The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.

I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER! 

4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Angels/A's UNDER 

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Angels and A's. Both of these teams have struggled to get going offensively in 2016. Los Angeles is averaging a mere 2.3 runs/game and Oakland isn't much better at 2.7 runs/game. Add in the fact that this game is being played at pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum and the value here is clearly on the UNDER. 

Today's starters are Hector Santiago and Kendall Graveman. Both pitched well in their first start. Santiago allowed just 2 earned runs on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings against Texas, while Graveman allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Adding even more value here is the fact that both have performed well against the opposing team. Santiago has a 2.54 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 9 starts against the A's and Graveman has a 2.45 ERA in 2 starts against the Angels. 

UNDER is 4-1 in LA's last 5 against division opponents and 7-3 in Santiago's last 10 starts when their opponents is coming off a game where they scored 2 or less. UNDER is also 5-0 in the A's last 5 division games and 13-3-2 in their last 18 home games against a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER

I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. 

Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER

These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points. 

Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace. 

New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kansas/Villanova UNDER

This is going to seem like a low total based on what these two teams have done offensively in their first three games of the tournament. Villanova has scored 86, 87 and 92 points, while Kansas has put up 105, 73 and 79. The key is what these two teams have done defensively. 

The Wildcats are only giving up an average of 64.3 ppg in the tournament and Kansas is allowing just 67.7 ppg. I look for the defenses to outperform the offenses in this one, especially with the magnitude of this game and the winner going to the Final 4. Opponents are shooting just 39.7% against the Jayhawks on the season and that's saying something given the talent they face in the Big 12. Offensively Kansas shoots 42.2% from the 3-point line, but that plays into the strength of the Villanova defense, which has held opponents to just 33.9% shooting from long distance. 

UNDER is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 games after after 15+ games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-4 on the season against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Jayhawks last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3 and 8-2 in their last 10 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER

While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. 

Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. 

I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. 

OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. 

Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams just played back on 2/24 and combined for just 202 points with a total of 210. The books have adjusted, but not enough. In fact, each of the last 6 meetings in the series have seen a combined score less than the number posted here. 

Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one, as both are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Philadelphia figures to really struggle offensively, as they have lost Okafor for the season and will also be without Covington. Those are two of their top 3 scorers, who combine for nearly 30.0 ppg. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Pistons last 10 road games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, 6-1 in their last 7 road games overall and 17-7 in their last 24 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the 76ers last 35 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Jazz UNDER 

The books have set the mark way too high for tonight's showdown between the Jazz and Wizards. This is an important game for both teams. After losing each of their last 3 games, Washington is now 2.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east. Utah has lost 7 of their last 8 to fall 3-games back of the 8th spot in the west. 

This is a game that both teams desperately want and need, which I believe is going to lead to a max defensive effort from both teams. Utah allowed 115 in their last game against the Warriors, but had held each of their previous 3 opponents to 94 or less and giving up only 94.2 ppg at home this season. Washington's defense has slipped in their last few games, but have held 8 of their last 13 to 100 or less. They also haven't allowed Utah to score more than 91 in each of the last 4 meetings. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 against a team with a losing record, 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 12-3 in Utah's last 15 against a team with a losing record and 22-10 in their last 32 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. 

These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. 

UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Jazz and Hawks. Both teams have really been playing well on the defensive side of the ball here of late. Atlanta is only giving up 89.4 ppg over their last 5 and Utah has held each of their last 2 opponents to 94. Keep in mind the Jazz only give up an average of 94.3 ppg at home on the season. 

Both teams also come into this game off a 2 day break, which should have both bringing the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. This is also a big game for both teams. Atlanta is just 3-games ahead of 9th place Detroit, while the Jazz are 1.5 back of 8th place Houston for the final spot in the west. 

These two teams combined for 193 points in Atlanta back on 11/15, barely eclipsing the total of 192. That was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. The Hawks hit 48.7% of their attempts, while Utah hit 51.3%. That's a good sign we will see a much lower scoring game in the rematch. 

UNDER is 16-4 in Utah's last 20 home games against teams who average 21 or fewer free throws/game, 24-11 in their last 35 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a team from the east. UNDER is also 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 after scoring 100 or more points and 7-3 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Suns/Heat UNDER

I believe we are seeing an inflated total here based on what took place in the last game for both of these teams. Phoenix allowed 126 points in a 92-126 loss at Charlotte, going over the total set of 210. Miami poured in 129 points on a ridiculous 67.5% shooting in a 129-111 win over the Bulls, easily eclipsing the total of 201.5. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this total, but the value is with the under. 

I'm confident Miami won't be shooting near 68% from the field in this one. While Phoenix is not a great defensive team, I look for Miami to struggle to bring the focus and energy against a bad team like the Suns. Keep in mind the Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. 

Phoenix on the other hand should come out inspired on the defensive end. As bad as they have been playing, they have continued to play hard and this is a prime bounce back spot after that ugly loss to the Hornets. Offensively the Suns figure to struggle. Phoenix ranks 28th in offensive efficiency and Miami ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Heat's last 29 after playing their previous game at home, 16-2 in their last 18 after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Suns last 28 road games after a combined score of 205 or more in their last 2 games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting much defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the league's worst teams in the Lakers and the Nets. Both of these teams have struggled defensively this year. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg with opponents shooting on average 47.0% from the field. Los Angeles is even worse, giving up 107.2 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field. 

Brooklyn just played last night against the Clippers and were competitive for the most part in a 95-105 defeat. While the Nets won't be traveling for this game, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights and 5th straight on the road overall. Brooklyn has allowed 105+ in 3 of their 4 road games during this stretch so far with the only exception coming against the Jazz. They combined for 222 in a 116-106 win at Phoenix, who I would compare with the talent the Lakers have. 

Los Angeles hasn't been playing any defense since returning from the All-Star break. They have allowed at least 108 points in 6 straight games. The key here is they have scored 101+ points in 5 of those 6, going over 110 in 4. The Lakers come into this game off 3 days of rest and that should allow them to take advantage of the tired legs the Nets will be dealing with in this spot. 

These two teams combined for 202 points back on Nov. 6th and that was with both teams not shooting well from the field or the 3-point line. OVER is 10-1 in the Nets last 11 off a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and 9-3 in their last 12 against the Western Conference. OVER is also 27-9-2 in the Lakers last 38 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season.

New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. 

It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

The Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 41-15, but the Raptors are within striking distance. Toronto is just 3-games back at 38-18. This is a statement game for both teams and I look for both to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. 

Both of these teams are very strong defensively. Cleveland comes in allowing just 95.4 ppg on the road, while the Raptors are giving up just 96.7 ppg at home. These two teams combined for 222 points in a 122-100 Cavaliers win at home back on 1/4. The total for that game was just 194. I know they flew over the mark, but a 14.5 point adjustment is too much! 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Raptors last 18 home games after playing in a game where 215 or more combined points were scored and 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 15-6 in Cleveland's last 21 against the Eastern Conference, 47-19 in their last 66 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100+ in their last contest. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER

The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER.  

This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. 

UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's contest between the Magic and 76ers and it's time to take advantage. These two teams played back on 1/20 and combined for just 183 points in a 96-87 76ers win at Orlando. Overall each of the last 7 and 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the posted total for this matchup. 

Keep in mind that Orlando only averages 97.7 ppg on the road, while Philadelphia is scoring just 96.2 ppg at home. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. The Magic are connecting on just 44.8% of their field goal attempts and the 76ers are at just 43.5%. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 road games off a loss by 3-points or less, 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the 76ers last 10 against a team with a losing record and 21-8 in their last 29 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. We'll take the UNDER! 

3* Spurs/Lakers NBA Over/Under No Brainer on OVER

San Antonio managed just 86 points in last night's ugly 19-point road loss to the Clippers. Regardless of who suits up for the Spurs tonight, I'm confident they are going to have zero problem exploiting the Lakers defense. LA is allowing 106.1 ppg on the season and have allowed 106+ in each of their last 3 meetings against the Spurs. 

The key here is that with the Spurs playing on no rest and the Lakers going to be highly motivated for this matchup at home, I expect LA to provide more than enough offensively to push this over the mark. The Lakers went into the break averaging 103.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Spurs are giving up an average of 99.5 ppg in their last 26 road games when they were listed as a road favorite in their previous contest. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Lakers last 22 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 18-8 in their last 26 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Vegas Insider Total of the Week on Nuggets/Kings UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Nuggets and Kings. While Sacramento comes in allowing a staggering 109.1 ppg on the season, they are better on that side of the ball at home (106.6 ppg). The Kings also have made it clear that they need to get better defensively and with how much this game means to their playoff chances, I expect all out effort on that side of the ball tonight. 

On the flip side of this, Denver is also perceived to be a bad defensive team, as they are giving up 103.4 ppg. However, the Nuggets went into the All-Star break really playing well on that side of the ball, as they allowed just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. This game has a little extra meaning for Denver, as head coach Michael Malone goes up against his former team. Keep in mind, Malone's a defensive guy and knows the strengths and weakness of a lot of the Kings players. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Kings last 17 home games against teams who average 99+ ppg and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Nuggets last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to this is a great system. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) when you have a total of 210 or more with a road team off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight games with 215 or more combined points. Take the UNDER! 

3* Bulls/Raptors NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER 

The Bulls come into this contest off a 95-106 loss at Cleveland last night. It was the 8th straight game in which Chicago has allowed 100 or more points. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, I just don't see the Bulls defense being able to contain the Raptors in this one, especially after playing such a big game last night against division rival Cleveland. 

Toronto was averaging 104.4 ppg over their last 5 prior to the break and have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 14 overall. I look for a very similar type of scoring output to what we saw when these two teams last met on 1/3, as they combined for 228 points. Keep in mind it was the 5th straight meeting between these two teams where they combined for 200 or more points. 

OVER is 15-6 in Toronto's 21 games this season against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 21-5 in the Bulls las t26 against the Atlantic division and 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* Pistons/Wizards NBA Total Dominator on OVER

I'm expecting an offensive explosion tonight in Washington. The Wizards were able to hold the Jazz to just 89 points last night, but Utah is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Detroit comes in averaging 101.8 ppg and will have a much easier time putting up points on Washington. Keep in mind the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and are allowing 105.1 ppg on the season. 

Detroit isn't a great defensive team either, especially on the road, where they are giving up 102.6 ppg. I don't expect the Pistons defense to be in great form tonight, as they will be working in newly acquired Tobias Harris and dealing with the losses of some key contributors. It takes time playing together to build chemistry on defense and I just don't see them having much success on that side of the ball here. 

OVER is 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, 6-1 i their last 7 when playing on 0 days rest and 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 against the Eastern Conference. 

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER

Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. 

Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER 

The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. 

San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nuggets OVER

I look for the Nuggets and Raptors to cruise past the total set for this matchup. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games, as 6 of the last 7 in the series have eclipsed the mark set by the oddsmakers. That includes a 106-105 game earlier this season that had a total of just 189.5. 

The Raptors come into this game clicking on all cylinders offensively. Toronto has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games and should have no problem extending that streak to 10 against a Nuggets team that has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games. It's also important to note that Denver is playing very well on the offensive end right now as well, the Nuggets have scored 100+ in 8 straight. Toronto has a good defense, but just allowed 107 in their last game against the Pistons and I don't see the defensive intensity being there with this being their first road game after a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

OVER is 10-3 in the Raptors last 13 against an opponent that scored 100 or more in their last game, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last game and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last 7 home games, 10-1 in their last 11 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. 

Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). 

It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. 

UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 

Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road.

Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. 

I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. 

UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Magic and the Grizzlies. Both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. Memphis comes in off a 101-106 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, snapping a 4-game winning streak. Orlando lost 116-120 in overtime at home against the Hornets in their last game, where they gave up a 15-point lead with 7:15 left in the 4th quarter. 

Not only will the defensive intensity be there for both teams, but we have two of the slower paced and least efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, while Orlando is 22nd in pace and 26th in offensive efficiency. I just don't see there being enough offensive possessions for this one to eclipse the mark set. 

UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Grizzlies last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a losing record. It's also 9-3 in the Magic's last 12 against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after allowing 105 or more points in their last game and 17-4 in their last 21 road games when playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Total Dominator on UNDER 

When it comes to playing elite teams at home the Bulls have been outstanding on the defensive side of the floor. Just to mention a few, Chicago has held the Cavaliers to 95, Thunder to 98, San Antonio to 89, Clippers to 80, Raptors to 97. I'm expecting that same defensive intensity against the Warriors, as they are well aware of what happened to Cleveland at home on Monday. 

These two teams played in Golden State earlier this season and combined for just 200 points with a total of 207.5. Given this is such a huge matchup and that it's a nationally televised game on ESPN, there's no doubt in mind mind this is an inflated total, especially with both teams coming off high-scoring games that went over the total. 

What gets overlooked on both of these teams is how good they are on the defensive end. Chicago ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 4th. Another important factor here is that this is a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, as there's no question that game at Cleveland meant a lot to this team. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference and 8-1 in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100 or more. UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 

These two teams combined for 216 points in their only previous meeting this season at Boston back on 10/30. The total in that game was just 200 points. Given that both teams have cruised past the over in each of their last 3 games, you would expect to see a much higher total in this game. That's a good sign the books are expecting a lot more defense this time around and I definitely think that's going to be the case. 

Anytime you get two division rivals going at it this late in the season, especially quality teams like we have here, the defensive intensity gets turned up a notch. Overall, both of these teams have been strong defensively against their division foes this season. Boston is only giving up 99.9 and the Raptors are allowing just 94.6 ppg. 

Toronto won that first meeting 113-103 at Boston, which is important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the Celtics last 14 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. UNDER is also 13-1 in Boston's last 14 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

This game has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Utah should be able to dictate the tempo in this one, as they will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, while the Hornets are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. No team plays at a slower tempo than the Jazz at 93.5.

Utah's overall defensive numbers aren't great, but that has a lot to do with center Rudy Gobert has missed a significant stretch. He's back in the lineup and the Jazz have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less, three times holding under 85. Charlotte only managed 92 points at home against the Bucks in their last game and I don't see the offense coming to life against Utah. 

Charlotte is giving up 100.4 ppg on the season, but they play much better defensively at home, where they are allowing 98.2 ppg. I look for the Hornets defense to be able to keep the Jazz in check, as Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are without 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (16.8 ppg). 

Under is 31-13 in the Hornets last 44 home games as a favorite of 6 or less, 23-11 in Utah's last 34 as a road dog of 6 or less, 8-1 in the Jazz's last 9 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 20-5 in their last 25 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Seahawks/Panthers UNDER

These two teams combined for 50 points in the Panthers 27-23 win at Seattle back in Week 6, which I believe has resulted in an inflated total for their rematch in Sunday's Divisional Round showdown. Keep in mind that was a 23-14 game in favor of the Seahawks with less than 4 minutes to play before the Panthers scored two late touchdowns. 

A few things to keep in mind with that game is the Seahawks offense only managed 14 first downs against the Panthers defense and struggled to convert in the red zone. Seattle had to settle for 3 field goals in 5 attempts. It's also important to note that most of their offensive came from tight end Jimmy Graham, who had 8 receptions for 140 yards (only had 334 total yards on the game). Graham is no longer available and the Panthers' Josh Norman should be able to limit Doug Baldwin, as he's really their only legit threat on the outside.

As for Carolina's offense, the biggest thing that you have to remember with that first meeting, is the fact that Seattle's star linebacker Bobby Wagner didn't play. His absence forced K.J. Wright to middle linebacker and Kevin Pierre-Louis to Wagner's weak-side spot. His first and only start at weak-side linebacker. One of Wagner's primary responsibilities is to cover tight ends and no surprise that Panthers' tight end exploited his absence with 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Olson will be less of a factor this time around and in turn I think the Panthers offense really struggles to generate points. 

With all the factors that played into the high-scoring game the first time around, I'm confident that was more of an outlier and we can expect to see a similar type game to the previous matchups in Carolina. In 2013 Seattle won 13-9 at Carolina and by a similar 12-7 score on the road in 2013. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Seahawks last 8 after allowing 200 total yards or less in their last game, 7-0 in their last 7 when revenging a loss of 7 points or less and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Panthers last 5 off a SU win by more than 14 points. All this combined forms a 24-0 (100%) system. Take the UNDER!  

5* AFC Divisional Round Total No Brainer on Chiefs/Pats UNDER

The perception here of the public is that the Patriots are going to go right back to being an elite offensive team with all their weapons returning from injury and that the Chiefs will be able to muster up 20+ points on New England's defense to send this game flying over the total. I don't think either of those things are going to happen. 

This game has the makings of a defensive battle right from the start. Kansas City's defense is arguably playing as well as anyone in the league right now. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 4 and only twice have they allowed 20 or more during this stretch. Their strength matches up well with what the Patriots want to do offensively.

Kansas City has the 9th ranked pass defense, allowing just 231.1 ypg. They have outstanding corners and safeties, as well as one of the best pass rushes in the league. While New England will have their weapons on the outside, the Chiefs should be able to exploit their offensive line. The Patriots also lack a threat of a running game with all the injuries they have sustained at the position. This only makes it that much easier on the Kansas City secondary, as they don't have to worry about the run. 

On the flip side of this, the Chiefs don't exactly have a great offense and could be in serious trouble if leading wide out Jeremy Maclin isn't able to play. New England's defense is better than they get credit for and should be close to full strength for this game. The Patriots strength defensively is against the run, which is critical against the Chiefs. I look for Kansas City to be in a lot of 3rd and long situations, which they aren't good at completing. Chiefs are also not a strong red-zone team, which only adds more value to the under. 

It's also important to note that while it won't be freezing cold outside (temperatures expected in the low 40's) the forecast right now is calling for 100% chance of rain. I believe this will cause both teams to be a little more cautious with the football and could play into the kicking game. 

The Patriots closed out the regular season with back-to-back losses against division rivals. The UNDER is 11-1 in New England's last 12 in this spot. UNDER is also 9-2 in the 2nd half and playoffs in the Chiefs last 11 against strong passing teams that average 235 or more yards/game, as well as 15-5 in their last 20 road games against teams averaging 27 or more points/game.  Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Nuggets UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.5 ppg. Their effort on that side of the ball doesn't lapse on the road. In fact, they actually allow only 95.1 ppg away from home, which has resulted in 12 of their 16 road games this season going under the total. 

The Heat are going to have to rely on their defense over the next few games with starting point guard Goran Dragic out with an injured calf. This will be the 2nd straight game he's missed and in his first game out the Heat managed just 90 points against the Clippers. Miami ranks 29th of 30 teams in pace at 94.5 and that isn't going to get better with Dragic out. 

Denver comes into this game off a high-scoring affair in their 112-110 upset win at home against the Warriors. Any game involving the Warriors is going to be high-scoring given their offensive weapons and how fast they like to play (rank 2nd in pace).

The key thing to keep in mind is that prior to that game against Golden State, Denver previous 3 games were all very low-scoring. They combined for just 187 in a 95-92 win at home against the Hornets, 175 in 84-91 loss at Memphis and 152 in 78-74 win at Minnesota. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Miami's 15 games over the last 2 seasons after allowing 100 or more in their previous 2 games (haven't allowed 100+ in 3 straight all season). UNDER is also 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 12-3 in their last 15 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER

Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. 

It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. 

UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

These two teams combined for 199 points in a 108-91 win by the Knicks at at home back on 12/4. The total for that game was just 192.5. You would expect to see a bigger total in the rematch, but it's actually lower and for good reason. Brooklyn is not the same offensive team as they were back in early December, as they have lost starting point guard Jarrett Jack. His loss has been evident of late, as the Nets are averaging just 82.6 ppg over their last 5. 

New York is coming off a high-scoring game last night in a 120-114 win at home against the Celtics. That actually favors the under, with the Knicks playing on the road with no rest. You also have to keep in mind Boston plays at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA. Add in the possibility that Carmelo Anthony won't play or will be hobbled if he does, and neither offense figures to do a lot in this game. This is also a big rivalry, which is going to have both teams playing hard defensively. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Nets last 13 when they come in having failed to cover in 3 or more consecutive games and 13-3 in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3-point shots. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Knicks last 34 against a team with a losing record and 11-5 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!