Sports Picks & Predictions

Both of the first two games in the Bay Area were close, but we just don’t see the Warriors cruising through this series without facing a little adversity and this is a must win for the Rockets tonight. We think that they will get the job done here. Houston has always gave the Warriors a challenge and this Warriors team just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that we have seen in past seasons.

Game 3 is the most crucial in a seven-game series and the team that wins normally goes on to win the series. We see the home team winning tonight and we think Boston will win this series. This team didn’t play well in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and Boston is built for the postseason. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings overall. We think the very deep Celtics team matches up well in this series and we expect them to lock down on defense against this inflated total.

Road teams have done well in the postseason thus far and the bookies have also posted too high of totals in these playoffs with the under trending, and that is the direction we see for this Game 3 tonight. While we liked Philly getting a fair bit of points in their road games in Toronto, we still think this is the Raptors series to lose, and with them losing Game 2 the urgency is now raised and they need a win here tonight. We expect them to get it. This is an important game for both teams, and we see both locking down on the defensive end, but the Raptors will have a bit more success on offense.

Houston was in a position to win Game 1. We think this series is much closer than the oddsmakers think, and Golden State seems to have lost some of their fire and they just don’t have the same swagger as we have seen the last few seasons. The refs really screwed the Rockets in Game 1, and this has been massively publicized. If we see the same thing here in Game 2, there will be major scrutiny from the officials so we think the Rockets will get a fair shake here, and maybe even get more calls than the Warriors. The Game 1 total went way under and we still think this Game 2 number is too high and we just don’t see a free flowing game and we think every possession will be challenged on each end of the court.

We are pretty confident the Blazers will win this series and we obviously like them in Game 1 here getting the points. Portland made easy work of OKC in their first-round matchup and they are the more well rested team coming in to this series as the Nuggets had a grueling seven-game series where they almost blew it at the end on their home court. Many, including us, were skeptical of the Blazers in the postseason after losing Nurkic, but they have proved us wrong and this team just looks ready to head to the conference finals after a disappointing playoff exit last season. Most of these Game 1s have gone under while these teams figure each other out in the early going, and this total looks a tad high as well.

We like the home team to get the job done tonight. The Nuggets have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They have lacked playoff experience coming into the postseason, but they have it now and they have a chance to advance here at home, and we expect them to get the job done. They have blown out the Spurs a couple times in this series, and we think this one has a chance to be a 10+-point win.

The Warriors were the biggest NBA favorites in a series in NBA history for this series with the No. 8 Clippers. But now here we are heading to Game 6 at Staples Center after Los Angeles shocked the world with a Game 5 win in the Bay Area. This Clippers team has been underrated all season, and they have gotten even better as the season has worn on. They played an absolutely masterful game in Game 5 and they dominated in crunch time of that game. They have nothing to lose here and all the pressure is on the Warriors. This Golden State team has had issues all season. They were one of the worst betting teams all year. They had some head-scratching losses, especially at home. They don’t seem to have the same fire they have played with the last couple years, and they don’t seem to get along as well when they face adversity. They will likely win on Friday, but we think there’s a real good chance that they might miss out on a championship this year. And we might see the end of a dynasty as this team likely won’t have the same makeup. But there is no reason to think this won’t be a competitive game. This is Ralph Lawler’s, the long-time Clippers announcer, final home game. He is well loved by the team and fans and we think that’s an extra motivation for the team. You would think this Game 5 loss would be a wake up call for Golden State but they still lost another at home after Game 2, and they should have played with more determination in Game 5 after seeing Houston close out Utah in their series and knowing the team that gave them lots of trouble last year is getting extra rest. That they failed in this crucial spot says a lot about the team this season, and we think this will be an extremely competitive game on Friday.

This looks like a seven-game series all the way, and Denver has always seemed to be one of the more vulnerable teams in the Western Conference playoffs. They have no postseason experience, and no matter what they did in the regular season, the postseason is a whole different animal, and the Spurs have all the stripes in this situation. They also have one of the best coaches in the game, and we think he will find a way to extend this series. We think the Spurs will get the job done on the defensive end, and this one will be a lot different than Game 4, the only time in the last few years that the Nuggets have had any success playing in San Antonio. Also with the lack of drama in the postseason this year in regards to long series, we think the refs will really be on the side of the Spurs as the NBA would love a Game 7 in the first round. And although there is no fix in, the home team normally gets the calls in these situations.

Utah didn’t show a lot of life in this series until Game 4 and they played a really amazing game. We think there’s a good chance that momentum carries over here tonight. Some of the teams that faced elimination last night didn’t even put up a fight, but the Jazz are a very good team and one that has a lot of pride. They know they are right back in this series with an upset tonight and then a home game for Game 6. We think they will leave it all on the court tonight.

It has been a great season for the Nets but their season might end tonight. But the way this team has played all season, we think they put up a good fight tonight. The Sixers have covered three straight in this playoff series but we have an inflated number here in Game 5 and we think that Brooklyn will do all they can to keep this competitive. The Nets will just come to work and they don’t have any big pressure tonight and we think the shots will fall and that this will be a close game.

The big comeback win in Game 2 was a wakeup call for the Warriors. And it’s not like they played bad all game in Game 2 as they were up by 31 points in the second half. They just took their foot off the gas and couldn’t get it started again. But now this team is motivated and they should win here by double digits. We do think this Warriors team will see some adversity in later rounds but this series is a mismatch. The future looks bright for the Clippers, but this year their surprising playoff appearance will be a brief one.

This series hasn’t been even remotely competitive so far. We don’t think the change in venue will make much of a difference here. The teams have had two nights off and that favors the Bucks here as we think they will be rested and ready to put the Pistons one way from elimination. Detroit is the worst team in the postseason, and we don’t see them putting up much of a fight at home as the Pistons are living up to their reputation as the worst team in the playoffs this year.

Neither of the first two games has come anywhere near 200, yet the oddsmakers are hesitant to put a total under 200 here. Indiana has been the best defensive team in the NBA all year. But Boston has stepped their defense up big time and they have held the Pacers to an average of 82 ppg in the two contests thus far. The Pacers have also struggled with their shooting. We don’t see either team breaking out on the offensive end, but Boston will do enough to get the job done and we expect them to win this game tonight.

The Clippers are getting a lot of love for their historic Game 2 comeback in the Bay Area. While the Clippers certainly earned that win, a lot had to do with poor coaching decisions from Golden State and an apathetic attitude from the team when they were up big. This Golden State team hasn’t had the fire that they have had in recent years. This team seems to need motivation to come from outside. But they should have that motivation tonight, and we see this one as being a blowout as the Warriors give a superhuman defensive effort in LA.

The Jazz normally bounce back well after a bad loss, like the one they had in Game 1, and they are 4-0 ATS the last four games when getting beat by 10 or more in the previous game. We really like this Jazz team and we think they will make adjustments to keep this close in Game 2. We don’t think this Houston team is as good as last year’s club, and they are vulnerable in this game. The Jazz have been very good as big dogs this season, and we think they will come through on Wednesday night.

Really like the Thunder to win this one. We think they outplayed the Blazers in Game 1, but the poor shooting from Paul George doomed this team in the second half. They were still within the cover at the end of the game, and we expect a much better effort from them tonight. They owned the Blazers during the regular season, and they have a big advantage on the inside with Nurkic injured. It’s interesting to see where the bookies make their adjustments from Game 1 to Game 2, and in this series it looks like they expect the Thunder to be much more competitive. And that is what we think as well.

We cashed a big play in Game 1 with Golden State and we expect much of the same result here in Game 2. The Clippers were just happy to make the playoffs. They would never admit it publicly, but they don’t expect to do much in the postseason without any star players. You could tell once the postseason was locked up that this team kind of went in the toilet. They actually played a pretty good game in Game 1 yet still didn’t cover. And we are getting a similar line here for Game 2. There was a lot of chippy play in Game 1 and that will help motivate the Warriors in Game 2, and this is a series they can easily sweep and have some rest before the second round. We think they will do everything in their power to make that happen. We expect a big point total from the home team tonight.

Even though the Thunder won almost 50 games in the regular season, it was somewhat of a disappointing year with more downswings than the fans would have liked. But you can throw the regular season out the window now. This is a whole new season, and the playoffs are a whole new beast when it comes to team performance. And with two stars on the team, the Thunder have a very good chance to win this series. We think they have a great chance to steal Game 1. The Blazers got swept last season by the Pelicans in the playoffs. We think that is very telling that this is a regular-season team. Nurkic was injured for Portland and is out for the playoffs, and the Thunder have a big advantage down low. The Thunder won and covered all four games these teams played this season, and we think they match up very well here.

This Clippers team snuck up on the Warriors in the first meeting of the season, winning straight up. They played them close in the second game as well. But Golden State figured out they just couldn’t take the night off against this team and they blew out LA in the next two meetings. This Clippers team was great for us all season long. But you get the feeling this squad just wanted to make the playoffs. Since they locked up a spot they have been playing pretty lousy. They lost three of their last four, and the only win was against a Utah team that rested their starters , and the game went to OT. We think this series will be a quick one, and the Warriors will show no mercy on LA. These teams just played, and it wasn’t even a game. Golden State played most the fourth quarter with scrubs in there. They won by almost 30. Not sure why this game would be any different.

The Spurs, Thunder and Clippers are all in play for the No. 8 seed tonight and the dubious task of taking on Golden State in the first round. These teams want to avoid that. A win here and the Thunder avoid that fate. We think this is a glorified playoff game for them in that respect, and we think they give their all here since the postseason doesn’t start until the weekend. No reason to hold anything back against a Bucks team that will have their minds on the postseason.

This is a must-win game for the Heat. They need to win out and get help for the postseason. This is also possibly Wade’s last home game as he heads into retirement. The Heat have been floundering lately, but because of these factors and the fact that the Sixers don’t have a lot of motivation here, we think the Heat will play their best game in some time tonight. It probably won’t be enough because they need help, but we think they will want to send Wade out a winner in his last home game and we expect the team to rally around him tonight.

The Clippers have played pretty lousy the last couple games, but there will be some good motivation for this team in this game. Mainly that they want to do everything possible to avoid the Warriors in the first round. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings. The Warriors have essentially locked in the No. 1 seed and they don’t have a whole lot to play for. They can win this game without giving 100% effort, and they might not even want the Clips to drop to the No. 8 seed as they might want to see a different opponent.

10 Unit Play. Take #802 Michigan State over Texas Tech (8:49p.m., Saturday, April 6 CBS) Michigan State has an advantage over the other 3 teams in Minneapolis in that they have been here many times before. Texas Tech, Virginia, and Auburn are just happy to be here where Coach Izzo has stated be might need a second championship to validate his coaching career. Michigan State knocked out the projected best team in the NCAA Tournament last Sunday and should be able to move onto the final game on Monday. When Michigan State losses in the final four it is generally because they do not have the best team and overachieved to get here. That will not the be the case on Saturday, as Michigan State is the much better offensive team in this match-up and will pull away late to win this game by 5-7 points. The Spartans are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games.

The Lakers have covered in five of the last seven meetings. We like the way Los Angeles has been playing and had them against OKC the other night and they had the cover in hand until just missing at the end with some very poor play the last couple minutes of the game. But that broke a streak of five straight covers, and this team is playing hard down the stretch, probably for their coach. Golden State is pretty much assured the No. 1 seed, and we don’t see them giving top effort down the stretch as they rest towards the playoffs.

10 Unit Play. Take #712 TCU over Texas (9:30p.m., Tuesday, April 2 ESPN) I am a big believer in riding teams that have had success in previous NIT Tournament. TCU won this two years ago and has been playing dominating basketball over this tournament winning all three of their games by at least 13 points. The Horned Frogs have beaten Texas twice already this season and the Longhorns still have injuries and I just do not believe they are all that excited to be in this game. This spread is 3 points short and I fully expect TCU to win this game by double digits. TCU has covered the spread against Texas in 5 of their last 6 meetings. TCU is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Shaka Smart has been a disappointing hire thus far and I do not see things changing in this game.

This is just too many points for the Thunder to be laying tonight. No team is limping towards the postseason more than OKC. They have lost seven of their last nine overall (against a home-heavy schedule, no less). Their ATS record is the same during that stretch. Yet they are being lined like they are playing well. The Lakers have won four of five and covered in all those games. These young players are playing hard for contracts and pride. We think there is a great chance they can keep this one within double digits, and possibly even win if OKC implodes again. OKC is 0-7 ATS in their last seven against sub-.500 teams!

With Blake Griffin most likely out for the Pistons tonight, we like the Pacers to take care of business here at home tonight. The Pistons never seen to play well here as they are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings. Indiana has been struggling lately, but they have had a very tough schedule that has been road-heavy. This team plays much better at home, and we expect them to up the defense tonight as they not only need to get back on the winning track but they are trying to get a home playoff series as well.

Most Golden State lines seem inflated anyways, and this one looks that way as well. That, and the fact they normally get the best effort from their opponents, has factored into them being one of the worst betting teams in the league this season and the worst by far the last couple seasons. And this team could care less about the regular season. They will play to their top level in the playoffs. And they probably have lost a bit of fire after all the championships. But Charlotte needs this game badly as their playoff hopes are on life support. We should see a solid effort from them tonight.

Utah has been a solid ATS betting team this season. But they have been especially good as big favorites as they are 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 11 or more points. These big spreads are normally designed to lure in the public sucker bettors, so when a team like Utah is good at covering these big lines it makes you take notice. The Wizards have lost five of six and this team is just waiting for the pain to end and for the season to finish. They got a win last time out against hapless Phoenix, so they probably has them content. We don’t see them putting up much of a fight here. They have one of the worst defenses in the NBA so we don’t see Utah having many issues putting up enough points to cover this big number. And Utah can play solid D, so they will hold the Wizards score down. Utah has won and covered in six straight meetings in this rare series, and we think they will win this one going away without breaking much of a sweat.

The Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. We have backed them on many occasions. However, we think tonight is a time to go the other way. They are getting a lot of buzz right now for their recent play. But we think their current record is a bit deceiving as they have played some lousy teams. They have also caught the better teams on their schedule at a bad time (on a back-to-back or after or before playing a big game). This is the last game of a four-game road trip. They have gone 3-0 so far (but against Cleveland, New York, and Minnesota). Even if they get blown out here, they can head home with their heads held high. And that is what we think will happen. The Bucks are the No. 1 ATS team in the NBA this season. We think the Clippers are getting too much credit here and we had this game handicapped above double-digits and we think this one has blowout written all over it.

10 Unit Play. Take #652 Tennessee over Purdue (7:29p.m., Thursday, March 28 TBS) Purdue looked much better than Tennessee in the first two rounds but this is the game that has tripped them up in recent years and 2019 should be no different. Tennessee has experience and did not have to replace 4 of their 5 starters from last season. Purdue shot lights out against Villanova and I just do not believe that they can do that for a second straight game. The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Purdue has been blown out in the Sweet 16 the last two years and I see them losing this game by 7-9 points against a hungry Tennessee team.

The Warriors are battling with the Nuggets and a couple other teams for the top spot in the west. They have kind of sleepwalked through the regular season, and they have not been a good betting team. But we have seen some indications lately that they are putting forth a better effort, the home loss to Dallas notwithstanding. Three of the last four meetings with Memphis have been Golden State blowouts, and this is a rival and the Warriors always want to play their best against this opponent. We think that they will put their best foot forward tonight.

Never thought it would happen but the Bucks are becoming kind of a public team. This line sure seems inflated to us as we had the Bucks at -1. Houston has been playing well lately. They have been a bit up and down all season, but they seem to be making a strong push as we had towards the playoffs. This is the marquee game of the day and we don’t see this as a letdown spot. We think if both teams are playing their best that this is a pretty even matchup, so getting the points is the way to go here.

We just think that this is too many points. The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season this month, and they have covered more numbers than not in March. Utah is back home after a four-game road set, and these first games back can be tricky, especially against a lousy team like the Suns, as the home team players may be distracted by personal, off-court business. These teams played recently in what turned out to be a blowout Utah win, but the Suns hung in these most of the game until the fourth quarter. We think there’s a good chance to see a more complete game from them tonight since the teams have played recently.

10 Unit Play. Take #872 Houston over Ohio State (8:40p.m., Sunday, March 24 TNT) Ohio State went out in the Round of 32 last season against a mid-major and I see the same thing happening again on Sunday. Houston is legit and dominated for most of the season in the AAC. Unlike Iowa State, the Cougars can rebound, and I do not believe the Buckeyes will be able to dominate on the board in this game. When Ohio State losses games it tends to come big and thus if Houston wins this game, they should easily cover the spread as well. Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. Houston is 8-3 ATS in their last neutral site games.

Past Clippers teams would be scary to trust in situations like this. They had more talent than the current club for sure, but they didn’t play like a team and they would often underwhelm against bad teams on the road. But this current squad plays like a team, and they are one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season. They are also getting possibly the best coaching job from Doc Rivers in his career. This team is 12-7 ATS on the road against sub-.500 clubs. They have covered four straight in this series. They are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and they seem to want to improve their playoff standing as the season winds down, so we don’t see them overlooking the Cavs tonight.

The Warriors have been one of the worst ATS teams all season. They just don’t give a crap about the regular season and their lines are always inflated. That certainly looks like the case tonight. After a rough patch the Warriors kind of flexed their muscles a bit and they have covered in three of the last four games. But we don’t think they will keep it up. They can give a subpar effort tonight and still win this game. Revenge doesn’t play a huge role in our NBA handicapping, but in certain situations we think it does come into play. And we have no doubt that the Pacers remember the 32-point beatdown they received at home to these Warriors earlier in the season. Every team wants to give Golden State their best shot, and we feel they will play strong defense tonight and give an all-out effort. Going to sprinkle 1 unit on the moneyline.

10 Unit Play. Take #788 Syracuse over Baylor (9:57p.m., Thursday, March 21 TRUTV) Just do not believe Baylor can go very far in this tournament without Tristan Clark. The Bears have lost 4 straight games and were not competitive in their last game out. This will be a battle of teams that like to play zone and I believe Syracuse will have the edge from the 3-point line. Baylor is 1-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 11 games overall. Syracuse has covered the spread in 4 straight NCAA Tournament games.

The Spurs are more secure in their playoff seeding right now and there is a lack of drama in the Western Conference playoff race. But Miami is in the No. 8 spot in the east and only 1.5 games secure in that spot. They need every win they can get, and the playoffs essentially start early for them if they want to keep this seeding. This is a sandwich game for the Spurs after their win over the Warriors last time out and with the Rockets on deck after this game. This looks like the perfect spot for a letdown game for the home team. Miami is one of the best betting teams on the road at 22-11 ATS this season. We think they will play some great defense tonight in a low-scoring affair. The only meeting this season, way back in November, saw the Heat win 95-88.

Philly has won all three meetings this season, but two have gone to overtime and one was decided by two points. In fact, all three Philly wins were by a combined six points for all three games. Charlotte matches up well here, and they will not want to get swept in the season series. The Hornets are 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, so this game is a must-win tonight, and we think this team will be focused on the task at hand. And Embiid is out of the lineup for the Sixers. This game is sandwiched between games against Milwaukee and Boston for the Sixers, and there’s no doubt they care more about those matchups than they do this one. Philly has been just average on the road this season, while the Hornets are very strong at home.

We just think that when push comes to shove that the Bucks are a much stronger and deeper team than are the Sixers, and we think that if both teams flex their muscles on national tv here that the Bucks will come on top with a comfortable win. Milwaukee has covered in three of the last four meetings and in five of the last seven, and we think they will match up well again here today. Nice line value here, in our opinion.

We like this price for the underdog tonight for what we think is the better team. The Blazers have a shot to win this one outright. They were off on Friday and have played a light schedule lately while the Spurs enter on a back-to-back. The Spurs are 3-8 straight up in the second half of back-to-backs. The home team has been dominant in this series lately, but we think the Blazers flip the script tonight and we think they have a chance for the outright win.

7 Unit Play. Take #605 Wisconsin +6 over Michigan State (1p.m., Saturday, March 16 CBS) Conference Tournament Game of the Year. Wisconsin should be able to keep this game low scoring and take it down to the wire. Wisconsin has won 4 straight games and played Michigan State tough in the only meeting this season. Michigan State still has an eye on getting the job done in the NCAA Tournament and does not care as much about winning this conference tournament and likely playing Michigan again on Sunday. Michigan State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Expect this to a 3-point game either way and we will collect with whoever comes out on top.

The Spurs are 2-10 ATS when laying more than seven points this season. In the past you could trust this Spurs team to run up the score on clubs and they would try to give opponents the dagger when up big late. But this just isn’t the same team this year, and this team doesn’t have the same killer instinct. We think this line is a few points too high and we think the Spurs will do just enough to get the job done but we don’t expect them to win in a blowout.

The Mavs are flailing as the season wears on. At the trade deadline they made a bunch of moves with an eye towards the future, and they pretty much took a flier on this season. They have lost six straight and 11 of 12 entering this contest. Not only that, but their plane into Denver was delayed because of weather problems. And star rookie Doncic is dealing with an injured knee that he has been playing through and Mavs Coach Carlisle admits he has been playing the rookie too many minutes. We think there is a good chance he plays very limited minutes here in this one. Denver played great last time out in their big win over the Wolves, and we think that positive momentum will carry over here. Plus, Denver goes for the season sweep tonight, and the first two games were both decided by double digits. Bad matchup for Dallas here.

The Suns have been playing well lately and are coming off the biggest win of the season and probably the biggest win for the franchise in the last few years when they beat Golden State in the Bay Area on Sunday. The Warriors don’t care much about the regular season and they didn’t give full effort in that game. But we think Utah will give full effort tonight. They have lost three of their last four and are in desperate need of a win and some positive momentum. This is just the team to get a big win against. Utah has won the last five meetings all by double digits. The Suns are one of the worst ATS teams in the league, and this is a letdown spot for them after the big win at Golden State. This looks very much like a double-digit win by the road team to us.

Portland has covered six of the last eight meetings between these clubs. The Clippers have been playing very well lately, but they are in a tough spot tonight coming in on a back-to-back and after playing Doc Rivers old team in the Celtics last night. This is a tough task facing a Portland team that has had two nights off. After a big winning streak the Blazers have lost two of three, and they should enter this game angry and fired up against a fatigued team.

We thought the Celtics would turn the corner at some point and start playing better. They have, and they come into this one having won all three games on the current road trip, including that big win over the Warriors. We think the positive momentum will continue here against a Clippers team that will be overmatched out on the court. The Clippers have won four straight, but the only impressive win was against OKC, and they were on a tough back-to-back. We had this line handicapped at 5.5, so we think there is nice value here tonight.

The Blazers have had a very tough schedule lately. They had a massive road trip and then returned home to play OKC to OT in a loss on Thursday. They have lost two straight heading into this game, so there will be no letdown situation tonight. The Suns have actually won three straight. They got a surprise win over the Bucks, but the other two wins were over trash teams. And the Suns are one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season despite getting very generous lines from the oddsmakers. We think this one will be a blowout tonight.

We were confident the Celtics would turn the corner at some point, and sometimes it just takes a confidence-building win to turn things around. They got that last night in Golden State in a 32-point road win, the worst loss for the Warriors at home in the Steve Kerr era. Boston can’t really afford to let up now, and we think the positive momentum from that win will carry over into tonight’s matchup. The Kings have been a great story this season and they have been money for bettors at home, but when both teams are playing their best game the Kings just can’t compete with the Celtics. We might be hesitant to back a team on a back-to-back after a big win like last night, but the Celtics didn’t seem to break a sweat and we don’t see them being in a letdown spot tonight. Plus, they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and we think they can score a comfortable road win here in this matchup.

Boston has lost five of six and this team is slumping big time. But we think they play desperate tonight. Golden State always seems to bring out the best in this team, and Golden State has covered in only two of the last nine meetings (one push). Golden State has dropped four of their last seven games, so they are not in top form right now. This team is the worst ATS team in the NBA this season, and the bookies post too-high lines on a nightly basis for this squad. We thought this line should be closer to 5 points. If Boston can win this game then all is right in the world again and the pressure will be off for awhile. We think they put their best foot forward tonight. The Warriors probably don’t care about this game nearly as much as they don’t put much emphasis on the regular season anymore. But for Boston this game means a lot tonight.

The Clippers are building towards the future and they probably don’t even want to make the playoffs this season as they lose their draft pick in that scenario. The Lakers are desperately trying to finish strong and make the postseason, because once they make the playoffs anything can happen with LeBron in the lineup. They currently sit at No. 10 in the west, and there aren’t a lot of games left, so they need every one they can get. This is a very winnable game tonight, and we think the differing motivation will be the difference in this one.

The Cavs have actually been playing some of their best basketball of the season recently as they have won three of their last five. They didn’t beat any marquee teams or anything, but Orlando doesn’t actually fit into that category either. This seems like a huge letdown spot for the Magic after their wins over Golden State and Indiana (they are on a back-to-back here after beating the Pacers last night), and they have Philly on deck. Cleveland is on a b2b as well but playing at home is a much more desired position. Just don’t like Orlando laying this big number on the road

We think that this is a real tough spot on the schedule for Milwaukee. They are nearing the end of a long road trip, and they play the Suns next in the last game of a five-game trip. They are playing their third game in four nights and on a back-to-back after playing the Lakers last night. They needed to expend a lot of energy late in that game as it was closer than expected but they pulled out the win and cover. Now they face a much tougher test against a Jazz team that has won three straight and covered in five of six, and we think fatigue will set in tonight for Milwaukee.

10 Unit Play. Take #735 Nevada over Utah State (8:30p.m., Saturday, March 2 CBSSN) Utah State has a chance to win the MWC with a victory this early evening but they will have their hands full with the Wolf Pack. Just do not believe the Aggies, picked 9th in the MWC, with a new coach can win this league. They are not a good match-up with the Pack, as Nevada has better size and experience and they will not be intimidated by playing at the Spectrum. The Wolf Pack won the first meeting by 23 points and they have the size to match-up with Sam Merrill and he will have to earn whatever points he gets. Nevada has covered the spread in 5 straight meetings against Utah State. Utah State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Nevada is 25-12 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 39 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

We are going to look hard at the home team whenever they are getting points against these Pelicans. You look up the word dysfunctional in the dictionary and there is a picture of the Pelicans. This team has all sorts of issues – and is not very good as a team – and they should not be laying this many points on the road to any team, even the Suns. This game is sandwiched between bigger games for New Orleans (Lakers and Nuggets), and we don’t see them giving max effort here. The Pelicans are 3-10 ATS on the road against sub-.500 clubs.

The Clippers have some talent still after the trade deadline but this team is tanking. It benefits them to make the lottery this season instead of the playoffs. LA has had a brutal schedule lately and they are playing their third game in four nights after a night off last night after their back-to-back. Now they face an underrated Utah team that has covered in five straight games. Utah had a couple recent tough losses to OKC and GSW on the road, so they will take this game very seriously and they are playing some very good basketball overall right now. Plus, they have covered in five straight meetings.

10 Unit Play. Take #808 Bradley over Valparaiso (8p.m., Wednesday, February 27 ESPN+) The steam has come off of the Crusaders of late and they will enter this game having lost 8 of their last 10 games. The Braves have been going in the opposite directions having won 5 of their last 6 games and they need to continue winning games to avoid playing on Thursday of the MVC next week. Bradley has revenge on their minds after losing by double digits to Valparaiso earlier this season, but they will be able to win this game by 8-10 points. Valparaiso is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Bradley is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Wednesday.

Toronto is the fourth-worst betting team in the NBA this season. That is because the oddsmakers post too-high lines for them on a nightly basis and they cooled down big time after their hot start to the season. We are many times looking for spots to go against them. We think that this is one of them. Boston sits No. 5 in the east as of Tuesday. This team, however, is talented, playoff tested, and well-coached. They are going to move up in the standings as we head to the postseason and in our minds are the team to beat once the playoffs get here. We like to take a good team off an embarrassing loss, and that is certainly the case with Boston after losing in Chicago last time out. They have had two nights off after that game so they should be rested and focused. The Celtics covered at the Bucks and at Philly in their last five games, and we think they will be focused tonight against another EC power.

10-Unit Play #565 Take Golden State -8.5 over Charlotte (7 p.m. EST, Mon. Feb 25)

The Warriors are one of the worst betting teams in the NBA this season and they have been particularly bad recently. This team is always overrated by the oddsmakers and they don’t give 100% every night just because the regular season isn’t that important to this team and they don’t have to give full effort to win since this team is so talented. We have made a lot of money going against this team this season. However, there will be certain spots where this team will be motivated, and we think this will be one of them. The Warriors have lost two of three and they are coming off a loss to the Rockets. They will probably take it out on poor Charlotte tonight as losing three of four would be an official slump so we think this team will flex its muscles a little here. If this team is really motivated they can beat the Hornets by 20, even on the road. This team has covered in only one of their last nine games. This is a rare GSW game where you don’t have to lay double digits, however, and we think this motivated squad will put their best foot forward tonight. 

10 Unit Play. Take #707 Kansas over Texas Tech (8p.m., Saturday, February 23 ESPN) The loser of this game is likely out of the conference championship race. I just do not believe Kansas will get run out of the building in Lubbock, TX. The Jayhawks have won 3 straight games and already beat the Red Raiders by 16 points earlier this season. The Red Raiders have won 4 straight games but those have come against 3 of the worst teams in the league. Kansas is getting a key player back for this game and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 4-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Both teams played last night so no b-2-b advantage for either team. The Pacers are the better squad and they have been a covering machine since losing Oladipo for the season and this is still a very good team and they are underestimated by the oddsmakers. Last night the Pacers looked great in a comeback vs. New Orleans while the Wizards fell flat at Charlotte, both games we cashed on. Two teams going in different directions here tonight.

Boston has been a big underachiever this season. But for some reason we still think this team is going to be the top dog in the East when all is said and done. We think at this point after the All-Star Break is when they will come on strong and get in playoff mode. If the Celtics were a stock we would buy right now. This is a very talented roster and the best coach in the NBA, and they will find a way to have success. We loved what we saw from this team before the break, and we think they will compete with a chance to win this one tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #732 Kentucky over Tennessee (8p.m., Saturday, February 16 ESPN) This will be the toughest environment Tennessee plays in all year long and I just feel Kentucky needs this game more. The Wildcats are coming off a controversial loss last time out against LSU and they will be hungry to win this game. The Volunteers are going to win the SEC but I am not sold that they are the best team in the country. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They have more talent than does Tennessee and I do not believe the visitor can make enough shots from the arc to win this road game. Kentucky pulls away late to win by 6-8 points.

The Celtics have received a lot of bad press lately because they have struggled on the court and the Sixers did well at the Trade Deadline so they have gotten some good press. That has skewed the line in this game. We think this number should be around 4, and the Celtics should be very motivated here in this matchup. Boston has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series, and they come in with two days rest after that very embarrassing loss to the Clippers where they blew a big lead. We think that they put their best foot forward here tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #621 Michigan State over Wisconsin (7p.m., Tuesday, February 12 ESPN 2) Michigan State has the bodies to offset Ethan Happ in the post and I am just not sure if Wisconsin can make enough perimeter shots to win this game. Wisconsin has already lost two home games this season during conference play and they have all but lost their chance to win the conference after losing over the weekend at Michigan. The line on this game is very telling, as Wisconsin opened has a 2.5 favorite only to have the Spartans favored at release time. The Spartans bounced back in a big way against Minnesota over the weekend. Michigan State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Tuesday.

The Suns put together a competitive game every few games or so, and last time out they played well in a cover vs. the Warriors. Now they are in a letdown spot against a Kings team that won’t get the Suns too excited like the defending champs did. Despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers, this team has covered only three of their last nine games. And despite generous numbers from the bookies all season, this team is in the Bottom 5 ATS teams this season. The Kings are playing well and have won four of five. They are proving they belong in the playoff picture when former Kings teams would have started folding by now. They have played exceptionally well at home, where they have won and covered in seven of their last eight overall, and that slate included some very solid teams. Sacramento is the third-best ATS team this season. And they are a very impressive 7-1 at home against sub-.500 clubs. They are 14-4 ATS overall against bad teams, and they normally take care of business against bad clubs, especially at home, where they have covered nine of 10 overall.

10 Unit Play. Take #750 Purdue over Nebraska (8:30p.m., Saturday, February 9 BTN) We have gone against Nebraska the last two games and see no reason for change course on Saturday night in West Lafayette. This Cornhusker team is shot and will enter this game have lost 6 straight games by over 9 points per game. This team cannot score points and the odds makers still have not caught on to how bad they are playing. Isaac Copeland was a lost they cannot overcome, and they have a lame duck coach with a veteran team that is just playing out the string. Nebraska is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss in their previous game. Purdue has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Until proven otherwise we are going to keep fading Nebraska.

We think that this line is a couple points too short tonight. Atlanta has played much better than expected this season but the Hornets are a much better ballclub, and they should be able to win this one comfortably. The Hornets come in off two straight losses, to much better teams, so they won’t take this game for granted tonight. They have covered in five of the last seven matchups in this series, so they match up well here. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS at home against teams that have a sub-.500 record, so they normally underwhelm in situations like this. The Hornets are just a game up in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to win games like this to keep their playoff standing. This is the easiest game of their current four-game road trip. This team isn’t very good on the road. But they know they need to beat bad opponents like this on the road, and we think they will put their best foot forward tonight.

The Mavs have traded a bunch of starters over the trade deadline. This team will be fine in the short term and probably really good by next year. But in the very short term this team is in for some rough patches. They have to fit these new players in the lineup and tinker around with rotations. The Bucks are a bad team to try these experiments out on. The Bucks have won 11 of their last 12 games and they are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. And this team is not only winning but also covering lines. They are 8-3-1 ATS during this current surge. They put up 148 points last time out against the Wizards, and an offense can’t be running much better than this one is right now. Dallas has been one of the best betting teams this season and they have been covering a lot of lines lately also. But the trade deadline changed the makeup of this team and it might take a few games to figure things out. And Doncic is questionable tonight for Dallas. If he is not at 100% that hurts this team a lot. We think there’s a great chance for a double-digit win here for the road team.

The Clippers are a team we have used plenty this season and they have been one of the better ATS teams in the league. But with the trade deadline moves this team made it’s clear they are tanking on this season now. They sent Harris, their best player, and a couple glue guys, to the Sixers for mostly draft picks. Management sent a clear message to the players that this is a lost season, and what was one of the deepest benches in the NBA has been gutted a bit. The Clips are in the midst of a long road trip and we just don’t see the players rising up to play hard in this one. They needed big comebacks to beat Detroit and Charlotte recently and they should have never been in that big of a hole to begin with. They played a real lackluster game on Sunday in Toronto. Indiana seems to be adapting well to life after Oladipo and they have won three straight entering this game. They played one of their best games of the season last time out vs. the Lakers, and we think they come into this game very confident and we see this as a potential double-digit win for the home team.

The Mavs are by far the best betting team this season at 32-19-1, and they don’t really move the needle with the general betting public due to the lack of big names on the roster. But this team has been easy to trust this season, and we will back them again here Wednesday. These teams played last month in Charlotte and the Mavs recorded one of the biggest blowouts on the NBA season, and we know they match up well in this contest. Dallas comes into this one with three nights rest and the Hornets played last night so they enter on a back-to-back. They looked awful in the second half in giving back a big lead to the Clippers, and we think they will have a hangover effect here. Dallas is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven and the oddsmakers just keep posting value lines with this team. We will take advantage again tonight.

The Clippers are being punished too much for the back-to-back here. We think that they can handle it. This team is 5-4 ATS on the second end of a back-to-back, so they are better than average in this situation. This squad is all about team basketball and they normally put in a full team effort. They sure did on Saturday as they mounted a huge comeback at Detroit. That just shows that this team never gives up. They don’t have any household names on the roster, but there is a lot of talent here. These players play unselfishly and they seem to like playing together and are well coached. We think they will keep this one close on Sunday. The Raptors have been awful when laying big points. They are 7-12 ATS this season when laying nine or more points. They have been overrated by the oddsmakers all season and are one of the worst betting teams in the NBA after their hot start. This team came back down to earth a bit but the oddsmakers never adjusted. The Clippers haven’t been big dogs like this often, but they are 2-0 ATS this season when getting 8 or more points. Toronto has failed to cover in three straight games and in six of their last nine. Besides that head-scratcher vs. Atlanta the Clippers have been playing very well. And in the tough Western Conference they need every game badly. Not sure they can win this outright, but we expect a close game here and this is too many points!

These teams met in LA about two weeks ago and the Warriors delivered a beatdown by almost 20 points. LeBron was out, of course, in that one, but the Lakers shot 50% from the floor and could not even come close to Golden State, who is in top form right now. LeBron is back, but he is still integrating himself into the lineup and he is not 100% healthy by his own admission. The Warriors have been playing flawless basketball lately, but they hit a speedbump last time in a home loss to Philly. We will give them a mulligan on that one and we expect to come out fired up in that one. Judging by the last time these teams met, the Lakers bring out the best in the Warriors kind of like the Clippers used to when Paul and Griffin were on the team. And even if they are up big they will still play hard and keep trying to run up the score. All signs point to a blowout in this one.

10 Unit Play. Take #650 Illinois over Nebraska (2:15p.m., Saturday, February 3 BTN) Nebraska is shot and injuries and this 4-game losing streak have all but ended their chances for an NCAA Tournament bid. They have lost 4 straight games and have not been very competitive in their last two games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Both were home losses in which they were favored like they are in this game. The Illini are still in rebuilding mode under Brad Underwood but they have shown some flashes of late beating Maryland last week and pounding Minnesota at home on January 16. But this play is more about going against Nebraska, as they have a coach on the hot seat and are becoming one of the most disappointing teams in the country that had expectations this season. Nebraska has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight Big 10 games. Illinois gets out to a good start and takes this game down to the wire earning a two-point victory despite being an underdog.

Charlotte, like many teams in the NBA, is much better at home than on the road. They have played a road-heavy schedule lately, and the results have been predictable, so bettor confidence is down with this team. But they are home tonight where they are 17-8 and have a winning ATS record as well (Memphis is 8-18 SU and 10-16 ATS on the road). This team won in Memphis about a week ago by 11, and we think there is a great chance this one is a double-digit win again tonight. We always say revenge is an overrated factor in NBA handicapping. Memphis has a ton of issues now and their best two players, and anyone on the roster really, could be on the way out of town any day now. They aren’t foaming at the mouth for revenge against the Hornets, and that is just one of many losses for this team recently. We think the Hornets will be extra motivated after getting beat down in Boston last time out.

The Pelicans gave everything they had last night in a win at Houston, and we think they left it all on the court last night. We think their tank will be empty tonight and expect the Nuggets to roll to a double-digit win. This team circled the wagons last night with a depleted roster and the Anthony Davis trade rumors. We don’t see any way they can replicate that effort here tonight. New Orleans is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back, and we think that trend continues tonight as the fresh Nuggets roll.

The Magic are a more competitive team than most people think. They are facing a very public line tonight. The Magic have actually covered in six of the last four matchups between these teams. They won three of the last four outright, and the one loss was in OT. Orlando has covered three of their last four overall so they are playing above oddsmakers current expectations. We think they come to play tonight with a chance to win this one outright.

We are surprised by this line as we expected a number in the 8-9 range. Nice value here as well. The Clippers are being punished too much for this back-to-back and they are 5-3 ATS in the second of a back-to-back this season. They will be fine with no rest. This is a very well-rounded team and they play great team basketball, so if one player is having a down night there will likely be someone else to step up. The Clips are trending upwards as they have won and covered three straight and four of five. The Hawks haven’t bee covering many games despite very generous numbers from the bookies. The Clips can’t afford to overlook a game like this so we think they put their best foot forward and take care of business tonight.

The Thunder are playing very well right now and are on a four-game winning streak entering this game. We expect them to extend that tonight, and we had the Thunder as a slight favorite in this game. We think the wrong team is favored here. OKC has had two nights off heading into this one, and that extra day of rest is crucial here at this juncture of the season. The Bucks enter on a winning streak of their own, but they have had a very easy schedule lately. This is by far the toughest game during this current streak. OKC is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and we just think this line is a very public line since the Bucks are oddsmaker darlings this season. We think OKC has a good chance to win this one comfortably.

3 Unit Play. Take #835 Iowa over Minnesota (5p.m., Sunday, January 27 FS1) Look for Iowa to bounce back against Minnesota after losing to Michigan State last time out. Iowa is still in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament and they are a much better shooting team than is Minnesota. The Gophers lost on a last second shot to Michigan last time out and expect a carryover effect in this game.

Oladipo suffered a bad injury lately and is out for the season. We expect his team to step up in his absence. This has been a strong team environment all season. The loss of their best player hurts for sure, but this team is still strong, and we should get some value lines with them in the near future. Memphis has all sorts of problems right now, mainly as two of their three best players could be on their way out of town. Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and we expect them to hold Memphis to a real low score tonight.

The Clippers have struggled lately against a tough schedule and this team is now on the verge of being out of the playoff picture. But this team is trending back upwards and they have been one of the better bets in the NBA most of the season. They have won and covered two of three, and they can’t afford to overlook this Bulls team tonight. Past versions of the Clippers might do just that, but this team seems better suited to win these types of games despite lacking the overall talent of the Clippers with the Big 3 on the roster.

It is becoming evident that the Wizards are a better team without John Wall. The last couple years when he has been out for extended periods they played better basketball, and that has been the case again this year. They have played really well on this homestand, winning four of five, with the only loss coming to Toronto in overtime. They were blow out early in the season on the road against the Warriors, and every team wants to play well against the defending champs at least once, so we think they give a much better effort here. The Warriors have really been rolling lately, and they have been covering some spreads, which is something they have struggled to do the last couple seasons with inflated spreads. This has been one of the worst betting teams in the NBA the last couple seasons. And the lines are quick to get big again, which is the case tonight, since public bettors will take the Warriors no matter the number. This team has won eight straight entering this game. But they don’t care about streaks whatsoever. They are just treating this as another game. They are probably due for a letdown game, and with the Celtics coming up next in the marquee game on Saturday, this team could be caught looking ahead to the next game.

The Hornets don’t win much on the road, but they have a great chance to win this one tonight. Gasol and Conley, the Grizzlies best two players, are on the trade market. This team is heading into a massive rebuild and the team just doesn’t have a lot of motivation to play well. They have lost six straight heading into this game, and they covered only one of those games despite some very generous lines. The Hornets come into this one having won three of their last four games, and they have won and covered in all of the last three meetings.

Portland has a strong history in this series, they are in fine form right now, and they are one of the better betting teams in the NBA this season. This seems like too many points in a game where the Blazers can threaten for the straight up win. Portland has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams. The one where they didn’t was earlier this month in a two-point loss at home. Portland enters on a three-game winning streak and they have covered six of their last seven overall. They are playing very confident basketball right now and unless they just have an off night we just don’t see any way this won’t be a close game. These teams match up well. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back but the Thunder had to travel from NY compared to Utah for Portland and that is a much easier travel schedule. We think there are a lot of factors that point to the road team tonight, and this also seems like an inflated spread.

We just think that this is too many points for the Mavs to be getting here on the holiday. Both teams are amongst the top betting teams ATS this season, but this line is just too large. This is one of the biggest numbers the Mavs have faced this season, and they are a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting double digit points. You have to go all the way back to 2014 as to when the Bucks covered a game in this series, and Dallas is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

10 Unit Play. Take Minnesota over Penn State (8:30p.m., Saturday, January 19 BTN) We will lay the small change tonight with Minnesota looking to move to 4-3 in Big 10 play. Penn State has yet to win a game this season in conference play and that will continue tonight at the Barn. Most of Minnesota’s conference games tend to be blowouts one way or the other and thus since we think they will win, they will also be able to cover this spread. The Gophers are coming off an embarrassing performance last time out against Illinois, but Penn State will not be able to pressure them like Illinois did. Penn State is coming off two straight home losses and their coach is likely to be replaced come March. Penn State is not only losing games they have not been covering the spread as well going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at the Barn. The favorite has covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings.

We think the Hornets are way overrated coming into this game. This team has low morale after a bad road trip. The Suns played very well last time out and gave Toronto all they could handle. Phoenix did very well ATS a few weeks ago as they had a nice streak and with Booker back they could have value against the betting line. This looks like too many points tonight.

One of the safest bets in the NBA lately has been to bet against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have covered only once in the last 11 games. And things will probably get worse before they get better. The trade deadline is coming up, and Gasol and even Conley might be on their way out of town. It’s time for this team to do the total rebuild that they have been putting off for years and everyone knows it. And this team is just not playing with any fire lately. They have lost two straight by double digits, and we see that as the likely result again tonight. Boston hasn’t been as stable as we like this season but they are streaky and this might be the start of another hot streak coming off the big win vs. Toronto last time out. Boston has covered seven straight at home, and when this team wins it normally covers, so we think this is a very solid bet tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #644 Arizona Wildcats over Oregon Ducks (9p.m., Thursday, January 17 ESPN) Arizona is going to win the PAC-12 this year! Despite a poor showing in the nonconference portion of the season they are putting things together and will enter this game with a perfect 4-0 record in conference play. Oregon is not the same team without Bol Bol and they will struggle to a .500 team in conference play. Arizona has won 6 straight games and are righting the ship. Oregon is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 PAC-12 games.

 The Hornets are coming off a long road trip where things didn’t go that well, as expected as this team is just not good away from home. But this squad has been pretty good at home and they are 14-8 here this season. We think revenge is a way overrated NBA handicapping angle, but we do think that it comes into play when teams have recently met, and the Kings won in Sacramento when these teams played just five days ago. It was a pretty close game despite the Hornets shooting poorly in the second half. We expect a much better effort here at home. Like the Hornets are undervalued due to a recent poor road trip, the Kings are overvalued here since they have had some success at home lately. But we think this line is too short tonight.

Orlando actually has one more win than Detroit on the season, and we think this is a very public line. This is the first game back home after a long West Coast road trip for Detroit, and the first game back home can often be tricky since the players’ minds may be focused more on personal matters. Orlando is confident here, coming off home wins against Houston and Boston. They have also covered in seven of the last eight matchups in this series!

We think that the wrong team is absolutely favored here. Denver has a very good team this season and they are a real threat for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. This is an up-and-coming team and they actually care about the regular season, while the Warriors just want to be healthy and in a good state of mind once April rolls around. This game is important for a potential tiebreaker down the line and we think the Nuggets are much more serious about this matchup than is Golden State. Denver has a strong recent history in this series as they have won the last two meetings straight up. The Warriors haven’t covered in four straight meetings (one push) and they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. We like Denver for a big time win here.

Dallas is one of the best home teams in the league at 16-4 on the season, and the Warriors have been just a little better than mediocre on the road at 11-8. We had Golden State listed as a slight favorite here but we think this line is inflated. Dallas is 6-2 ATS at home this season against above-.500 clubs, and they should give their best effort tonight against the defending champs. Dallas is one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, and we trust them again tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #306 New England Patriots over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, January 13 CBS) The Chargers have been on a roll but playing their third straight road games against a rested team will doom them in. The Patriots are a much better team at home and they are the only team that did not lose a home game this season. Los Angeles still seems to be banged up at the skill positions and I am not sure that their wide receivers can stretch the field against New England. QB Rivers is 1-5 in his career against New England and is 0-2 in the playoffs. New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against New England. Everyone is doubting the Patriots at this moment, but they still are the Patriots with the best coach/quarterback combo of all time. New England dominates for 60 minutes and wins this game by double digits.

10 Unit Play. Take #689 Kansas over Baylor (4p.m., Saturday, January 12 ESPN) Kansas lost their last road game but losing is something they just do not do that often in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks lost Udoka Azubuike and thus I believe the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in both of there games this week. They controlled the game with TCU from the start and I expect them to be ahead most of this game as well. Kansas is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Baylor. The road team is 20-7 ATS (1 push) in the last 28 meetings. Baylor already lost to SFA at home this year and they are not as strong as they have been in year’s past. Kansas gets back on track today in Waco.

Not a lot of people realize it, but if the season ended right now the Nets would be in the postseason. That’s not a major accomplishment in the East and they are just 21-22, but the perception of the public is that this is a lottery team, but the truth is that they are playing some decent basketball. This team has covered in four of their last five games, and they have won straight up in all those covers. The Raptors have won three straight, but this team is not in the same fine form they were when they set the NBA ablaze early in the season. They have covered just 3 of their last 13 games overall, a clear sign that their play on the court is not matching the oddsmaker expectations. This team has had lots of trouble covering big lines this season as they are 4-11 ATS when laying nine or more points this season. They are 4-7 ATS at home against Sub-.500 clubs. Brooklyn has also covered in three of the last four meetings, two of which went to overtime (the Nets won the last meetings between these clubs, in December).

We have been making a lot of money with the Clippers lately, but we think it’s time to go the other way tonight. Denver is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 16-3 while the Clippers are mediocre on the road at 10-10. LA has won three straight, but those all came against flawed opponents. They take a hefty step up in competition tonight. Denver has won six of their last seven, and they are in fine form right now. This team is 13-6 ATS at home this season, so when they win they normally cover the line as well. They are also 8-2 ATS at home against teams above .500, so they get up when the best of the best competition comes to Denver. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, and they have revenge for a beatdown in LA last month that was a bad spot for them. They should get their revenge tonight in what we see as a comfortable 7+-point win.

Despite the records, the Pacers are on the second tier of Eastern Conference contenders while the Celtics are the top tier. Boston just got off to a slow start this season while the Pacers have overachieved. But Boston is rounding into playoff form right now, and they are clearly the stronger team in this matchup. They have won and covered in three straight games. Once this team gets rolling they can cover a lot as they have been one of the best betting teams the last couple years. This team has now covered in 17 straight games where they have won, so when they win the spread normally doesn’t even come into play. The Pacers have actually won the last three meetings in this series, so we think the Celtics will give max effort here at home. This is the first meeting in Boston this season.