Sports Picks & Predictions

We think the Magic are a team to watch after the All-Star Break as long as they can stay healthy. This team is getting some key players back tonight who have been out with injury for awhile, and this team when healthy has some nice young talent. We had this line handicapped at -6.5 and we think that there is great value here. The Knicks season is in shambles now that Porzingis is done for the year and this is a team that should be faded in spots as they are a likely Tanking candidate. Orlando has won and covered the last two meetings and we think that trend continues tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #766 UNLV over Fresno State (10p.m., Wednesday February 21 ESPN 3) The Rebels are coming off their worst performance of the season but I expect them to bounce back in a big way Wednesday. The Bulldogs have won four straight but their last two games have come against the worst teams in the league (Colorado State & San Jose State). UNLV has talent evident by the fact that the are the only team to win at Nevada this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The line is moving our direction and that is with good reason. UNLV gets back on track in a big way tonight in Sin City.

10 Unit Play. Take #536 LSU over Vanderbilt (9p.m., Tuesday February 20 SECN) I just do not believe in Vanderbilt this season especially when they are playing on the road. Vanderbilt has lost all 7 conference road games this season. The Tigers have a new coach this season and they close out the regular season with 4 games that are winnable and a chance to finish conference play .500. LSU has revenge after losing in Nashville by 6 points. LSU has covered the spread in 4 straight home games. Vanderbilt is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Lay the points in this game.

Denver has been playing well, but they have had a home-heavy schedule. However, this team is just 8-19 on the road this season. This is kind of an awkward scheduling spot for them after beating the Spurs at home last time out and now they have to travel on the road to face a good Milwaukee team before the all-star break starts tomorrow. We think this is a real letdown spot for them tonight. The Bucks have won five of six and are playing well, and we think they will have much more incentive here at home tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #788 Boise State over Nevada (11p.m., Wednesday February 14 ESPN U) First place in the MWC is on the line when the Wolf Pack head to Boise, ID to take on the Broncos. This is a must win game for Boise State to keep their at-large chances alive for the NCAA Tournament in March. Boise State played well in Reno before Nevada pulled out a hard-fought victory late. If Boise State gets ahead in the second half Nevada will not be able to come back at Taco Bell Arena. A win by Boise State will put them in great shape to win the conference as Nevada still has road games left at UNLV and San Diego State. Nevada is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 road games. The favorite is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in the last 7 meetings between the Pack and the Broncos.

New Orleans has won and covered three of the last four meetings. This will be the Pelicans last game before the All-Star Break and the Lakers play on Thursday before the break so the Pelicans have the advantage that they can leave it all on the court as they will get rest afterwards while the Lakers have a real tough schedule to close out the first half of the season as they have to play at Minnesota on Thursday. The Pelicans enter with confidence after winning two straight on the road, including a road blowout win at a Pistons team that has been playing well.

The Bulls come in on the second end of a back-to-back while the Wizards had the night off on Friday. Chicago played a very emotional game vs. some of their old players on Minnesota and they scored an unlikely win on Friday. Watching that game you saw the Bulls give it everything they had in the second half. We doubt they have much left in the tank here. Before that win the Bulls had lost seven straight. They had covered only once during that losing streak. They are 3-5-1 ATS on the second end of a back-to-back this season. They have also covered in only 3 of the last 13 meetings between these clubs in Chicago. The Wizards have played well despite missing John Wall and even though they have lost two straight entering this game they are still the much better team here in this matchup. We see the Wizards getting back on track in a big way tonight against a fatigued Bulls team who got its glory last night and is probably content to sleepwalk through this game.

Utah is healthy right now and they are playing extremely well. They have won seven straight, and the last four have come on the road. They have covered in seven of their last nine games so this team is overachieving against oddsmaker expectations right now. They are back home after a four-game road trip and this team has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, and the house should be rocking on Friday night. Charlotte is playing their fourth and final game of a four-game road trip tonight and they come in on a back-to-back after playing in overtime last night in Portland. A road back-to-back is already tough but it makes it even harder when they played an extra five-minute frame, especially when they lost in OT. Charlotte is 3-5-1 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hornets are 8-17 on the road this season and 8-13-4 ATS, so they don’t often cover in these situations despite getting some hefty numbers as a road underdog. They are 5-16 ATS as an underdog of seven or fewer points this season. We see the Jazz playing very well tonight against a fatigued Hornets team and we expect this to be a very comfortable win for the home club.

These teams completed the blockbuster trade of the NBA season that sent Blake Griffin to the Pistons. That put the Clippers in a position of being competitive but made the Pistons a contender in the east, and they have responded with five straight wins. Sometimes all you need is some confidence in the NBA to have success and Detroit has been playing with a lot more confidence, and Griffin seems to have fit in well with his new team so far. LA really screwed Griffin over in this trade after telling him he would retire with the team when they signed him to a mega-deal in the offseason, and we think he will give extra effort here against his old team in the final meeting of the season. His teammates seem to like him as well and we think they will give extra effort here also. The Clippers have surpassed expectations this season. They are fighting for a playoff spot. But this team has some overrated wins this season. Their wins over the Rockets and Warriors are quality, but we think those teams didn’t play well on those nights. And otherwise LA has wins over mostly pretty lousy teams otherwise. We thought that this spread would be closer to 7 and we think there is nice value here. Detroit has won and covered both of the last two meetings.

The Wizards have been hot since John Wall went down with injury. No matter what anyone says, this team is not better without their leader and best player. They came back to Earth last game out with a blowout loss at Philly and we expect them to lose this one as well. We actually handicapped the Celtics as three-point favorites in this game so there is very nice betting value here for Thursday night. The Celtics have been one of the best bets in the NBA as an underdog this season as they are 11-2 ATS when getting points this season. They have the much better team on the court tonight, especially with Wall sidelined. They are also 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these teams. We always like to take a good team off an embarrassing loss since these professionals don’t like to get humiliated like this and normally give a much better effort in their next game, and that is certainly the case for the Celtics tonight as they are coming off a 20-point blowout loss at Toronto. Before that, however, they had won four straight. The Wizards are not a good team when laying points as they are 6-18 ATS this season when laying fewer than nine points.

Brooklyn hasn’t been in top form as they have failed to cover in five of their last six games, but even with that slide they are still the No. 2 ATS team in the league, and we think that this is a good spot for them to play a close game and get the cover tonight. Houston is coming off big road wins at San Antonio and Cleveland, and we don’t see them getting too amped to play Brooklyn here and this is a letdown spot for the visiting team. The Nets have been great in the underdog role this season as they are 17-6 ATS when getting six or more points. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. This team gets hyped to play the best teams in the league, especially at home, and we think they put up a strong effort tonight in keeping this close.

The Clippers have won three of four and as a result the bookies have posted too high of a number here for this game on Monday. This team is now without Blake Griffin and although they have played well at points this season now this squad is missing its best player. We think the Mavs match up well here tonight and we expect a very close, hard-fought game. The Mavs destroyed the Clippers in Dallas the last time these teams met by 25+ and we think they could challenge for the win here. The Mavs have a couple nights off after this game and we think they will give an A+ effort here.

10 Unit Play. Take #102 New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles (6:30p.m., Sunday February 4 NBC) I feel this is a pretty solid line, but I just cannot see New England losing this game straight-up. All of the Tom Brady Super Bowl games have been close and New England is just due for a convincing win to cap off a great career of Brady and Belichick. Nick Foles still cannot be trusted and I do not expect him to be able to put up big numbers on a neutral field against this New England defense. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. New England is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.

Denver has had some success against the Warriors. Golden State has only one cover in the last five meetings (one push). Denver has even won two of those meetings straight up. We had Golden State last night at the Kings and we were very lucky to get the cover. The Warriors did not play that well in the game, and Sacramento more or less imploded at the end of the game more than the Warriors taking control and dominating. This team looks tired and Coach Steve Kerr admitted as much after the game last night and said his team is physically and mentally exhausted and they are limping towards the All-Star Break. Well, Denver is not a good place to play a back-to-back in that mental and physical state as the high altitude can be tough even on fresh teams. Denver was off last night, they have been home for the better part of two weeks and they will be motivated to play the Warriors as teams are on a nightly basis. They have been playing very well and nearly beat the Spurs in San Antonio two games ago and they scored a momentum-building win over OKC on Thursday here at home. We think this will be a close game and it would not surprise us if Denver pulled off the straight up win.

The Grizzlies have covered seven of their last nine games and they are getting too many points once again here on Thursday. Blake Griffin should be joining the Pistons tonight in his first game on the court for Detroit but he is not going to fit in seamlessly right away and it will be a work in progress with him to mesh with his teammates and the Pistons gave away some of their good players to the Clippers in that trade so they way be worse for the wear until he starts to gel with the team. This Detroit team got a big win last time out vs. the Cavs, but that team is flawed but otherwise the Pistons have lost eight of their last nine and this team should not be favored by this many points until we can see that Griffin is the solution to their problems.

Boston isn’t in top form right now and they are laying too many points tonight in this one. This is the first game back home after a tough four-game road trip for Boston and often these first games back home don’t go as well as planned for the home team as players have other business to attend to and their minds might not be fully in the game. They have had a very busy schedule lately, too, so they are probably tired. The Knicks are on the second of a back-to-back but they had three nights off before the Brooklyn win last night so they should be fine here.

The Clippers traded away Blake Griffin last night and things will also get worse for this team before they get better. This move came as a surprise for almost everyone and the rest of the Clippers players have to be scratching their heads and wondering if they are getting shipped out of town themselves. Even Coach Doc Rivers name has been mentioned to get canned. This does not set up well for them to host Portland tonight. The Blazers are hot, having won five of six, and they are playing with confidence. They will want to take advantage of their rival when in a state of flux. The new additions from the Pistons will likely not be available tonight for the home team and we think they will be a bit shell-shocked and we expect them to lose bad here and to regroup after this game.

Brooklyn is one of the top NBA teams in the league this season against the spread. They have been especially good as an underdog. This team is 16-5 ATS this season when they are getting six or more points as an underdog. That is the type of team that you can trust when getting double digits because you know they will play hard most nights and that they are underestimated by the bookies. The Nets got blown out last night at Milwaukee but this team is 6-3 ATS on the second end of a back-to-back. The Wolves could be without Jimmy Butler tonight as he is listed as questionable but even if he does play he’s probably not going to be anywhere near 100%. Brooklyn is 16-8 ATS on the road this season and 9-4 ATS on the road against winning teams. They already beat the Wolves earlier this month in Brooklyn and we think they will keep this game close tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #596 Arizona -8.5 over Utah (5:30p.m., Saturday January 27 FOX) TOP NCAA GAME OF THE DAY. Not much needs to be said about this game. Arizona is going to win straight-up and they are due for a blowout victory. Arizona turned it on in the second half against Colorado and that game was not in doubt late. The Wildcats already won in Salt Lake City by 12 points and Utah is just not the same team on the road. Arizona has some injury issues, but it will not matter if those guys play. Either way they are winning by double digits. The favorite is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games.

We have been going against the Cavs quite a bit this season with good success but we think that this is a game they will actually care about and play their best. These teams have already played three times this season and the Pacers have won all three games. The Cavs need to step up here and we expect them to play their best game in awhile to avoid the sweep. Cleveland has played a really tough schedule lately but things get a bit easier starting here and we think they come out with a big game tonight just like the Cavs we have been used to. Cleveland should win this one by double digits.

The Wizards have been slumping but this team normally lowers itself to the level of competition but on the flip side they have been great in this spot they are in tonight as they are 7-2 ATS when on the road against above-.500 teams. They are normally their best when playing top competition. OKC, on the other hand, is just 4-9 ATS at home against winning teams. We like to back strong teams off a bad loss and the Wizards certainly qualify here after a listless effort in Dallas last time out saw them run out of the building in a 23-point blowout. These guys will play better tonight. OKC has won five straight but at Cleveland was the only quality win there and the Cavs are just a mess right now. We expect a close game and might throw a couple bucks on the Wizards moneyline here.

These teams have similar records but the Magic have had lots of injury issues and the Kings just flat out stink. Sacramento is in full tank mode right now and they are going to be resting regulars on a regular basis now and that is to ensure they get a high pick in the 2018 draft. They have lost eight straight and four of those games were by double digits. They also come in on a back-to-back while the Magic should be well rested as they have played just one game the last four nights and they had Monday off. Orlando has covered in five straight games and those included straight up wins against Boston and Minnesota and a one-point loss at Cleveland.

The Jazz are getting healthy again and we think that this is a team on the upswing. This team hasn’t been good on the road this season but they have won two of their last three on the road and this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They are playing with a lot of confidence right now after blowing out the Clippers last time out and ending their long winning streak and we think they use that positive momentum to notch a very comfortable win over one of the worst teams in the NBA here in Atlanta. Utah has blown out the Hawks in the last two meetings and that could happen again here tonight.

This Pacers road trip, which started off promising with wins at Phoenix and Utah, has quickly turned into a nightmare with double-digit losses in the last two games at Portland and LA Lakers. This will be their third game in four nights and then they have two nights off before they play Phoenix at home on Wednesday so we think that this is a spot where they may mail it in. Even if they don’t we think this game will be all Spurs tonight. The Spurs have played six of their last seven on the road and this team just isn’t good away from home this season but now they are back home tonight where they are 19-2 on the season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They are 15-5-1 ATS here so not only do they win but they normally do it with authority. After dropping two of three on this most recent road trip the Spurs will be anxious to get back to their winning ways. And against a fatigued and road-weary Pacers team tonight that should be the perfect recipe for success.

The Clippers have won six straight but only a couple of those wins were of the quality variety and we think this team’s bubble will burst eventually. And we think that will be the case tonight. The Jazz are coming in on a back-to-back after losing to the Knicks at home last night. But this team is young and they are 7-2 ATS in back-to-backs this season so we think that they will be fine here. Utah has Rudy Gobert back and he is their best player and this team was not the same without him. But they have covered in six of the last nine meetings in this series and we like the home team laying the small number here tonight.

Portland’s defense has pretty much fallen apart and they have allowed 106+ in eight of their last nine games. During that stretch their games have gone over eight times. They have allowed 119 or more in three of their last four games. Of course the Blazers have lost three of four because you aren’t going to win a lot of games giving up that many points. We think the Pacers will put up a big number on offense tonight and we think that they have a great chance to win this game straight out. They are playing a more complete game right now and they have quietly won three straight and five of their last six.

This is a fade of the Clippers more than anything. They played their biggest game of the season on Monday as the Rockets and former teammate Chris Paul came to town and to say there were fireworks in that game would be an understatement. There were scuffles, skirmishes, a war of words, a Blake Griffin ejection and a visit to the Clippers lockeroom by Rockets players looking for a fight. The Clippers won that one and they have now won five straight. However, two of those wins were against the Kings and one against Atlanta, so there weren’t a lot of quality wins there, and the Rockets and Warriors had off nights when they played them. Even though the Nuggets are on a back-to-back here we think the big distractions that came from the Clippers last game will wear on them here.

Revenge is one of the more overrated handicapping aspects of the NBA, in our opinion, but we do think it comes into play when the teams have recently met and that is the case tonight as these teams played on Sunday and the Bucks got blown out in South Beach. That was an 18-point win for the Heat, which was no doubt embarrassing for a Bucks team that is supposed to be a force in the East this season. Milwaukee is a much better team at home and they caught the Heat during a surge in performance but now that Miami’s long winning streak ended in Chicago we expect more road woes for the visitors tonight.

The Wizards just completed a five-game homestand and they didn’t look very good in going 2-3 with their wins over Brooklyn (in OT) and Orlando. They have failed to cover the spread in any of their last six games. The Hornets are in better form right now with covers in four of their last six, and they are coming off an impressive blowout win in Detroit on Monday. Charlotte has won and covered the last two meetings at home in this series and we think they are a bit undervalued tonight.

The Timberwolves have won five straight but all those games were at home and they were against mostly teams that are struggling right now. This is the first road game in what will be seven of nine on the road. Minnesota is just 11-10 on the road this season so they are pretty average away from home. Orlando is not a very good team but this team has dealt with a lot of injuries this season and this team is finally getting more healthy. They have covered in three of the last four meetings, including one this season where they played the Wolves real tough in Minnesota. They lost that game by only six. Orlando has covered three of four overall and this team, now healthy, is being underestimated by the oddsmakers. They have had a real tough schedule lately so they aren’t going to be intimidated by the Wolves here at home. Orlando has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings and we think this is too many points tonight as we expect a close game.

The Sacramento Kings have been in a freefall lately and this team looks to be in full tank mode right now. They have lost their last four games by an average of 12 points and they didn’t even put up a fight last time out in a 21-point loss at the LA Clippers in a game where they did not play any defense. The results for the Thunder haven’t been great lately. They have been on the road a lot lately and they have played some tough opponents. This team hasn’t had a stretch yet this season where they played consistently good basketball. But after losing three of their last four this is a “get right” game for them and we have no doubt that they will take advantage of this lesser opponent to get back on track. OKC has been good at blowing out bad teams this season and they are 3-1 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Sacramento won the first meeting this season but we don’t think the Thunder will let that happen again and we think this one will be blowout city tonight.

The Pacers are not a very good road team and they have not played well in this series. Indiana is just 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in the desert. The Suns have been playing well lately at home and this is an underrated bunch that is lacking in talent but they tend to play hard on most nights and we think they have a very good chance for the straight up win here tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #308 Minnesota Vikings over New Orleans (4:40p.m., Sunday January 14 FOX) The Vikings will complete the season sweep of the Saints on Sunday. The Vikings have won 10 of their last 11 games and already beat the Saints by double digits. Despite the Saints being much improved on defense they are still at a major disadvantage in this game with an advantage of all three components of the defense (line, linebackers, and secondary). QB Brees will have to play outstanding for New Orleans to be competitive in this game and I do not see that happening. His receivers made remarkable catches last week against Carolina and I just do not believe that they can do that for a second consecutive week. New Orleans has not been playing that well of late going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Minnesota is 34-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 home games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports 

10 Unit Play. Take #604 Take Oklahoma State -1.5 over Texas (5p.m., Saturday January 13 ESPNN) The Cowboys need all the wins that they can get in the Big 12 and they should be able beat Texas at home. The Pokes are averaging over 81 points per game and I just do not believe Texas will be able to keep up with this in this game. Texas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday. Oklahoma State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played on Saturday. 

10 Unit Play. Take #302 Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Falcons (4:35p.m., Saturday January 13 NBC) Everyone is on the Atlanta Falcons bandwagon and off the Philadelphia Eagles. A No. 1 seed has never been an underdog in the divisional round but that is the case on Saturday. The Eagles still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position and they will be able to play the no respect card in a big way on Saturday. Atlanta had the benefit of playing in a warm weather city last week but that will not be the case in Philadelphia this Saturday. QB Ryan has not played up to his MVP standards of a year ago and I still have no confidence in their offensive coordinator. The Eagles have a top ranked defense against the run and that should make Atlanta one-dimensional. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 

Brooklyn has lost three straight but those were all against top teams in the east. But there is no way they should be getting this many points at the Hawks, one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. The Nets don’t have too much of a better record but make no mistake this team is on a higher tier than the Hawks and a much better team. They have covered in six of their last seven games and they are the No. 2 ATS team in the NBA this season. That means this is a bad team that has some talent and plays hard on a  nightly basis. They won by 20 on this same floor the last time these teams met and they have covered in five of the last six meetings.

The Lakers are completely healthy and they have been playing well. San Antonio is really banged up and will be without a handful of key players tonight, hence the small line here. The Spurs have not played well on the road this season at 10-12 and that is just two more wins than the Lakers have at home and Los Angeles has been underachieving for much of the season. They have won two straight, however, in very impressive fashion and this would be a marquee win for the ballclub and they will give it their all tonight since the Spurs are in a weakened state. We think the Lakers are playing hard right now for their coach after the controversy with the Ball family.

We have been very impressed with the play of the Hornets lately, and after a slow start to the season they seem to be peaking right now. They have won three of four, all on the road and by double digits, including that big win over the Warriors in the Bay Area. This team has always had the talent, and now they are putting it together. Usually the game after a road trip can be treacherous for the home club but Charlotte has had four nights off and that is crucial rest at this point of the season. Dallas is coming off a homestand where they lost three of four and they aren’t playing with the same intensity we have seen from this team at some points in the season. Dallas is 4-12 ATS this season against sub-.500 teams and we think they are in for a rough outing tonight.

Cleveland has dropped five of eight and they just aren’t playing well right now. However, the books keep lining them as if they were winning. This is normally one of the best teams in the NBA to fade and now they are 12-26-1 ATS this season so they are even better than normal as this team is just not as good as previous squads and this team normally performs at 75% effort during the regular season to save their energy for the playoffs. The Wolves have been really strong at home lately and this team is finally getting it together after years of potential and this team is playing very well right now. The Wolves are 14-6 at home this season while the Cavs have been poor on the road and we expect a strong showing from the home club tonight.

The Lakers have lost nine straight games and this team is dealing with a lot of inner turmoil right now and we just don’t think that they should be favored by this many points against any team right now. This team is 1-6 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams and this is about as shaky of a favorite as you can get in the NBA betting market. Atlanta has won three of six, including wins over Portland and Washington, and they are in better form right now. This game seems like a coin flip to us so we have to take the underdog that is getting so many points.

The Clippers have been playing well lately and we think they are getting too many points here in the Saturday matinee. Golden State has absolutely dominated this series but now that Chris Paul is gone we don’t think the Warriors have that same burning desire to embarrass the Clippers and this is just another game for them. They are coming off a game against Paul and Houston and that is the game that was more important to them and we feel this is a letdown spot. That was the first in four games Golden State covered and they needed a 7-0 run to finish the game just to get the ATS win. We might throw a couple bucks on the Clippers moneyline here as we think this is a decent spot for them to challenge for the win.

10 Unit Play. Take #827 Wisconsin over Rutgers (7p.m., ESPN 2) Just do not trust Rutgers at all. This has been a bottom feeder program for much of their existence and anytime you get this low of a number you need to press. After beating Seton Hall, Rutgers has lost three games in a row and they have yet to win a Big 10 game this season. Wisconsin still has Ethan Happ and he alone is better than anything Rutgers will put on the floor. The Badgers have won 5 straight games and that has given them confidence that they will take into this game. Just seeing the ball go into the basket can help young players. I still do not believe that this is an NCAA Tournament team, but they still have a system and that usually is good enough to beat inferior teams. Rutgers has played Wisconsin tough in the past and that means Coach Gard (3-0 against them) will not take them lightly. Rutgers is 17-38 ATS in their last 55 Big 10 games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Clippers have been playing well but they have had a super easy schedule and their only real quality win was at Houston but we think that was more of an off night for the Rockets than the Clippers doing anything special. OKC has won seven of nine and this team is starting to put it together after a slow start to the season where there were some growing pains with the new Big 3. But this is a team that was supposed to be a Top 3 team in the NBA and they are suddenly playing the part while the Clippers ceiling this season is probably a No. 8 seed if they even make the playoffs (and if they can stay healthy). The Thunder have covered four of the last five meetings. They played in LA last night and barely broke a sweat against the Lakers so they have no travel and this is about the best situation for a road game back-to-back that they could possibly have tonight.

Atlanta is one of the worst NBA teams in the league this season and this team is 3-15 on the road. The Suns aren’t a good team, either, but at 14-24 and playing in the tougher Western Conference they are quite a bit better than the Hawks, in our opinion. The Suns have won two of three and they are in nice form right now and this is a very winnable game for them so we think they go all out tonight in front of the home fans. The Suns have covered in four straight meetings and they have won the last two meetings at home, and we think those trends will continue here on Tuesday.

Phllly got the upset win in Denver last night but now they have a real tough back-to-back in Phoenix. Denver is a tough place to play either the first or second half of a back-to-back and the Suns will run the Sixers with a fast pace all night and we think they will be real worn out by the fourth quarter and the Suns have a real legitimate chance to pull the upset here. Philly has yet to win or cover a b-2-b this season in four tries and this young team may be in another bad spot tonight.

We always like to back a good team off a bad loss and the Pistons certainly qualify tonight as they lost by double-digits in Orlando on Thursday. Now they face a Spurs team at home as a big underdog. The Spurs just haven’t been good on the road this season and they are just 8-9 SU away from home and an even worse 6-11 ATS. Detroit played the Spurs very tough in San Antonio earlier this month and we think they can be even better here at home despite being a but banged up. But we had this game handicapped as a pickem so we think there is some nice value here on Saturday.

10 Unit Play. #262 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Washington Huskies (Fiesta Bowl, Saturday, 12/30 4 pm ESPN) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR, MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME I felt all season long that Penn State was the best team in the Big 10. They blew the game against Ohio State and they got tripped up the following week at Michigan State in a game delayed by weather. Despite Washington returning a ton of players from last year’s team that made the playoff, they did not look very impressive this season. They lost two games in which there were favored and played a very weak nonconference schedule. Penn State played a much more difficult schedule and they have a major edge on offense especially in the trenches. Penn State won their last three games to close out the regular season by an average of 35 points per game and I believe they will win this game by double digits as well. Penn State is 9-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. 

Steph Curry is still out but otherwise this team is pretty healthy right now. They were in a letdown spot coming off their big Christmas win over the Cavs when facing Utah last time out but they just dominated despite somewhat of an off night and they won by 25. That tells us that this team is in fine form right now and they Charlotte team that has thus far been a big disappointment this season. This team is just 3-8-3 ATS away from home despite getting some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. We think this will be another GSW blowout tonight.

The Knicks have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series. If this was a couple weeks ago the Knicks probably would have been 3-4 point favorites here. But the Bulls have been playing well. However, this is a tough spot as they are coming off a three-game road trip and are on a back-to-back tonight. We had the Knicks handicapped at -2 for this game so there is great value in them as an underdog. While the Bulls have been playing better this team will still finish with one of the worst records in the NBA and the Knicks are a much better team. We think they have an excellent shot at the rare road win tonight.

Detroit has taken two of three meetings this season so far in this series but we think that these teams are pretty even and the Pacers have a strong history in this series as they have taken seven of nine meetings against the spread. This game has reverse line movement as the public is on Detroit and the line is getting smaller, meaning that other sharp bettors probably like the Pacers as well in this game tonight. Both teams have been good ATS but the Pacers have been even better as they are the No. 2 ATS team at 20-13 on the season. The Pistons are not in the best form as the oddsmakers have overadjusted in some games, and as a result they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games while the Pacers have played very well on the road and are on a 7-1 ATS run away from home. One of the Pistons best players, Avery Bradley, has been out for four games and is questionable tonight and the Pistons will need a complete effort to get by Indiana and we just don’t see it happening tonight.

The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and out of nowhere this team has won six straight. Any team can get hot at any time in the NBA as these are some of the most talented basketball players in the world even though some teams have less supreme talent than others. But now the Bulls are in the role of a big favorite against a team that is probably a bit better than them. Even with the six-game winning streak the Bulls are only 9-20, and when all is said and done this team will have one of the worst records in the NBA. We just think this is too many points for a team like Chicago to be laying tonight.

The Bucks are a team that doesn’t always play to their potential this season but they should be sharp and focused here on Tuesday night. The Bucks have lost three straight, including one to the suddenly-hot Bulls. A three-game losing streak is bad. But a four-game losing streak is panic time. They would be hyped for this game anyways but there is a lot more on the line tonight as this team needs to get back on a winning streak. The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now but this team is notoriously bad against the spread and this season is no different at 11-19-1 ATS. They are overvalued again tonight.

The Hawks are only 6-23 SU but they are 15-13-1 ATS and that shows us this is a team that is better than the oddsmakers think and also a team that plays hard most nights to keep games close. The Hawks have had two nights off while Miami will be playing its third game in four nights and they have Boston on deck after the night off Tuesday so they could very well be in a letdown spot here. Atlanta has won only two of their last nine games but they are 7-2 ATS during that span but this is a game we think they can actually win straight out.

The Cavs seem to run hot and cold ATS and they are cold now as they have failed to cover in three straight and five of six overall. Washington has been cold ATS but they had the night off on Saturday while the Cavs are coming in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights, and it’s always tough to play a good team on the road in that situation. We think that this is a great spot to back the home team and we are confident they will win this one comfortably tonight.

The Suns were already a very thin team talent-wise and were down Devin Booker already and now Tyson Chandler might be out here as well. With the Bulls playing well lately this Suns team may be fielding the weakest lineup in the NBA tonight. This looks like a real good spot for the Timberwolves to shine. They beat a much better team in the Kings on Thursday by 20+ and we think they could lay down a similar beatdown tonight. The Wolves are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams in Minnesota and we think that the Wolves match up real well in this game and we expect them to shine tonight.

10 Unit Play. #570 Take Marshall over Ohio (8 pm) The Thundering Herd play an up-tempo three-point shooting style of offense that reminds teams of a Mike D’Antoni type of team. That is because his brother Don is the coach of this team and when they are making three-point shots this is a tough team to beat. That task is even much tougher at the Henderson Center and these two teams actually met last year in Huntington with Marshall winning that game, 98-88. That game should feature a big crowd since the start time was pushed back in order to show the bowl game on the jumbotron. Since that game I feel Marshall has gotten better and Ohio has stayed the same having to replace key people from their team last season. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, but Marshall is 6-0 at home and has won three straight games. Marshall is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. Ohio is 4-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

The Nets are the No. 3 ATS team in the entire league at 17-10. They have been great as a big underdog this season as they are 7-1 ATS when getting seven or more points. This is a team that can hold betting value every night as they don’t have any stars and are well below .500 on the W/L record but this team plays hard almost every night and they have some underrated talent on the court. They come in on a back-to-back tonight but they are 3-1 ATS in these situations this season and this is a young and athletic team so we aren’t worried about the lack of rest and after a poor performance last night we think they will want to play much better here tonight.  Toronto has dropped four of their last six ATS and they have struggled to cover as a double-digit favorite as they are just 1-3 ATS in this role in 2017.

We thought the Pistons were just in a slump against a tough schedule then they were blown out of the water at home against Boston and then they had a really embarrassing home blowout loss to the Nuggets last time out and this team just is not playing well right now. Atlanta has covered in five of the last eight meetings in this series. They have been a covering machine as of late as they have covered in four straight games and in six of their last seven. This team is playing hard almost every night and we have no doubt they will be amped to have the Pistons in town tonight and Detroit might be more focused on a tougher opponent in the Pacers, who they travel to play on the road tomorrow night.

The Pistons have lost six straight, but they had probably the toughest schedule anyone could possibly play during that stretch. They played well enough to win in at least half of those games. This is the weakest team they have played during this stretch and we think they go all out to get back on the winning track tonight. Detroit won and covered both games last season and this Pistons team is a better club this year. Both wins were by 10+ points. They have covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these teams in Detroit. The Pistons are still one of the best ATS teams in the league and we think they flex their muscles tonight against an inferior opponent.

The Clippers D has been terrible recently and they have allowed 112+ in five of their last six games and their best defensive performance during that stretch was giving up 108 in Dallas. That does not bode well tonight against a Toronto team that is in mid-season form offensively. Toronto has averaged 117 PPG in their last six and we don’t see any way the Clippers slow them down tonight. The Raptors have covered in six straight meetings in this series.

The Raptors are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now having won nine of their last 11. They have covered in six of their last 10 but they had a couple recent games where they just missed the cover. This team looks better than the Raptors squad that we saw the last couple years and this team could be a legit NBA Finals contender if other top clubs in the east can’t stay healthy. We think that this team will keep up their hot play today against an overmatched Sacramento squad. The Kings are at home but this start time does them no favors as it is a very early start California time and we think that plays to the Raptors advantage. This is the first game back home after a long road trip for the Kings and that can be a bad omen for a bad team like this as they often can’t keep their focus on the game when they have other life stuff to take care of. And the fact that they got a big win last time at New Orleans (in OT no less) might make this team feel like they have done their work for the weekend and that they won’t give full effort here. Toronto averages about 15 points more per game than do the Kings on offense and we just don’t think they can keep up with a Toronto team that looks really focused right now and is rounding into mid-season form.

These teams played on Wednesday but in a strange scheduling quirk the Magic hosted Denver (while getting run out of the building) while the Hawks had the night off. That sets up a big revenge spot here as the Hawks lost in Orlando in overtime and now they are the rested team while Orlando comes in on a back-to-back after getting embarrassed on Friday. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS against their last eight opponents with a losing record and we think they are in a much better position for a big performance tonight than is Orlando.

Detroit has lost four straight but three of those losses were very respectable and those were all on the road. Now they are back home where they are 8-2 on the season. This is the second meeting this season between these teams and the Pistons already won in the Bay Area in October as part of their 15-7-2 ATS record. Detroit is Top 3 ATS this season and this team seems to love the big matchups as they have beaten a lot of top teams this season. Golden State is a very good team even without Curry but they have had a pretty easy run of it on their current road trip and we expect this team to face a bit of adversity tonight.

Utah is 11-4 ATS at home this season and they are undervalued again tonight. The Jazz are coming off a road loss at OKC but this team won six straight before that, with five coming on this same court. This team has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and this is a very good team this season even after losing Gordon Hayward. Houston has won seven straight but this team has had a real easy schedule lately. This is the toughest game they will have played in their last eight games. The Jazz have scored 110+ in five of their last seven games and this is an offense that can hang with the Rockets and keep up with their pace. We think both teams will get their points and we expect a close, high-scoring game here on the TNT nightcap.

Detroit has lost three straight so they will be very keen on getting back on the winning track tonight. If you look at those losses, though, you will see that there was only one bad loss, and that was to the Wizards in a game that they did not play well. The next night they were on a back-to-back in Philly and they led entering the fourth quarter but ran out of gas late. Then they led the Spurs almost all game and San Antonio hit some nice shots late to score a three-point win even though the Pistons covered. Now Detroit is on the last leg of their 4-game road trip which makes this game even more important as if they win here tonight they will come out of this trip without many worries but if they lose all four of their games then this was just a disastrous road trip. We think they give max effort here. We expect a real close game here and we had this spread closer to pick’em. Milwaukee has won four of six but if you look at their schedule they needed OT to get by Phoenix then they won a home and away against Sacramento. Those are two of the five worst teams in the NBA. And they also won at Portland, which is their only recent quality win. Detroit has covered the last three in this series and the games have all been pretty competitive. We see this as a game that will be close again but we think the Pistons have the more complete team right now and they will be extra motivated in this game. We think that they pull out a close one tonight on the road.

We always like to take a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss because these players are pros and they will give a much better effort the next time out. The Wizards were on the wrong end of one of the biggest blowouts of the season as they lost last night by 47 points in Utah. That came after playing almost a perfect game at home in their own blowout win over Detroit even with John Wall sidelined. They are going to give a much better effort here and we are sure of that. Portland has lost two straight, both at home, and this team is just 7-6 at home this season and that is just one more win than the Wizards have on the road. And while we think revenge is mostly an overrated handicapping philosophy we do think it comes into play and the Blazers won in Washington last week and we think that maybe last night in Utah that they were looking ahead to this matchup. We also expect a low-scoring game, which makes the points for the underdog all the more valuable.

Detroit is one of the best ATS teams in the league at 14-7-1 on the season and even though they have lost two straight we think they will be primed for a big bounce-back performance here. Detroit is 5-2 ATS on the road against winning teams. They have some big wins this season on the road as they beat OKC, Boston and Golden State already this season. We think that not only will they be primed to end this two-game slide but they want to put another feather in their collective cap by beating a top team on the road. We think the Pistons are absolutely legit this season and since this team doesn’t have big stars and is not a team with recent success that they will hold their betting value despite some major ATS success already this season.

10 Unit Play. #328 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm FOX) People keep doubting the Badgers but all the do is win games and I just do not see this Ohio State team being able to run up and down the field on them. This is the best defense Wisconsin has ever had and QB J.T. Barrett is not the type of quarterback that can beat teams throwing the ball consistently down the field. Wisconsin looked much more impressive in games against Iowa and Michigan than did Ohio State (common opponents). This just has a different feeling that other Wisconsin appearances in the Big 10 Title Game. This Badger team is extremely confident on both sides of the football and this not as strong of Buckeye team as we have seen in the past. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Expect a game that is very competitive that goes down to the wire, but Wisconsin pulls it out by a field goal to advance to the CFP. 

We were on the Pistons last night and they put forth an embarrassing performance but we think that we will see a much better effort from them here on Saturday. Last night they were beaten in almost every aspect by a Wizards team that was missing John Wall but they just took the night off there and this team is much better than that. This team has been one of the Top 3 clubs in the Eastern Conference and they are one of the best ATS teams on the season. We really like them getting this many points against a team that while improved is still a work in progress and we think that the Pistons are the more complete ballclub right now. Plus Detroit has revenge as they lost to Philly as one of their seven losses on the season (in October).

10 Unit Play. #530 Take Seton Hall over Texas Tech (6:30 pm FS1) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. The wrong team is favored in this game. Texas Tech has a gaudy 6-0 record and that includes victories over Boston College and Northwestern in Uncasville, CT. Of those wins, Boston College played them much closer than the final score would indicate, and we saw this week that Northwestern is not that good (loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday). The Pirates are 5-1 on the year with their only loss coming against Rhode Island by one point in a game they led down the stretch. The team is loaded with talent and returns four starters from their NCAA Tournament team last season. Seton Hall is used to playing at Madison Square Garden and having a competitive game will benefit them a great deal in this game. Texas Tech is much improved, and they appear to have a good coach in Chris Beard but I just do not believe they are back all the way. This is a program that has not had consistency in their entire history and they are still likely a bottom of middle of the pack team in the competitive Big 12. Texas Tech is 1-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games against Big East Conference teams. Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games. 

We like to back good teams coming off a bad loss and the Thunder certainly fit the bill here as they were blown out in Dallas last time out after a one-point home loss to the Pistons. They have had three days off to lick their wounds and regroup and we think they will be focused and ready at Orlando tonight. Orlando has lost nine straight games and they have covered only one in their last six. The Magic are just 3-6 ATS when getting six or fewer points as a dog. This is a team we look to bet on when getting big points but this is too few points tonight against a Thunder team that will come in anxious for a big performance.

The Heat are very good on the road as they are 6-4 thus far this season, and that is the same record that the Cleveland Cavaliers have at home. The Cavs are on a big winning streak but this team is still overvalued nighty and we think that they are giving too many points tonight. They enter on a back-to-back after a big win against Philly last night. But Cleveland is just 1-11 ATS as a favorite of three or more points this season. We think that this will be a close game and that the underdog has a chance for the straight up win.

These are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and two of the best betting teams as well. But we think the Celtics are on another level above Detroit and we think that they will be very motivated in this game tonight. Boston is 18-3 this season straight up. They are 17-3-1 ATS. That means that most often when they win that they win by enough to cover the number. And we expect that to be the case tonight. The big Celtics winning streak ended last Wednesday in Miami. You expect for a team to lose after that long winning streak to let down in the following games but the Celtics did not miss a beat and earned two blowout wins and covers in their next two games. The Pistons are coming off a big road win in OKC but they have lost three of their last five overall and they got blown out in Cleveland against a team that is not as good as this Celtics club this season. This is the start of a homestand for the Celtics and we think that they will want to get off to a strong start and flex their muscles a bit against one of their main contenders in the East.

The Grizzlies have not been playing well and have dropped seven straight. But they have had a pretty tough schedule overall and this should be a good “get right” game for them on Sunday night. Brooklyn is only 2-7 on the road this season and after playing tough against teams like Golden State and Cleveland lately we doubt they bring their A Game tonight against a lesser opponent. This line has been overadjusted but we expect Memphis to come out hungry here and we think that they win this one by 7+ points.

The Spurs have not played well on the road this season but they have a great chance to start to turn that trend around here on Saturday night against a fatigued Hornets team. This Charlotte squad is coming in on a back-to-back after losing a one-point heartbreaker in Cleveland last night. They had Thanksgiving off but they played Wednesday night and went to OT in that game. That makes this a big letdown spot for a weary team. The Spurs have had two nights off to stew about their last game, a huge blowout loss in New Orleans. Because they were so bad that night we have a feeling this team will come out strong here and bring their A Game to try and put that bad loss in the rearview mirror. Nic Batum missed the game last night for the Hornets and he is questionable here and if he is out or not at 100% then that makes this Charlotte team much weaker as he is a key piece for this squad. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (4.5 or fewer points) and we think that this is a great spot for them to bounce back against a tired team.

This Detroit team is one of the most undervalued clubs in the NBA this season. They are 11-5-1 ATS on the year and we think they are getting too many points once again tonight. The Pistons have dropped three of four but they did not embarrass themselves in any game except the last one, a home blowout vs. Cleveland. That was their last game and that was on Monday so they have had plenty of time to relax and regroup and we think they will come into this matchup with something to prove. And since they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series that shows us that they normally bring their A Game against the Thunder. OKC is coming off their biggest win of the season in blowing out the Warriors at home. We think that makes this a letdown spot against an out-of-conference opponent. And that this one is coming right after the Thanksgiving holiday and two days after their win over Golden State makes this even more of a letdown spot. OKC has been pretty average this season overall. They are still a work in progress. We expect a real close game here and a Detroit straight up win would not be shocking.

10 Unit Play. #110 Take Dallas Cowboys over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:30 pm CBS) The Cowboys face a must win situation when they host their annual Thanksgiving Day game. The Chargers are coming off their best performance of the season but most of that success had to be with Buffalo QB Nathan Peterman throwing five interceptions. The Chargers are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time since the merger and playing Thursday games on the road is always a tough task. Dallas is getting a step down in class compared to their last two games (Philadelphia & Atlanta) and should be getting back some of their players for this game. The Chargers never seem to handle prosperity well evident by their loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago and you just cannot count on them to win games consistently. Los Angeles is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a victory in their previous game. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 

This is too many points for a team like the Lakers to be laying against anyone. Even though the Lakers have stunk for the last couple years they can still be a public team, and as the lone game in the NBA on Tuesday against one of the dregs of the Eastern Conference we think that this line is inflated a bit. The Bulls have been pretty good when getting big points like this as they are 6-4 when getting six or more points. The Lakers have only laid a line in this big of a range once, a few nights ago vs. Phoenix, and they lost straight up as 7.5-point favorites. Chicago has covered five of the last seven meetings and we think that this is a very winnable game for a team that won’t collect many Ws on the season.

The Clippers are in their biggest slide in years as they have lost eight straight entering this game. But this is just a much better team than the Knicks despite the recent results and we have to be happy laying this small number here on Monday night. LA played pretty well at Cleveland the other night, losing in OT, and then they were awful in the back-to-back at Charlotte. But they had Sunday off to regroup and we think they will be very motivated to get back on the winning track here. They have a very favorable upcoming schedule and they can start to turn this thing around tonight. They should get P. Beverley back tonight and he will be a sparkplug on defense. LA is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in NY and 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall.

These teams have identical 10-5 records on the season but Detroit is 10-4-1 ATS while the Wolves are just 8-6-1. We think the Pistons have been undervalued by the oddsmakers and we think that is the case here tonight as we had this line at 4 with a strong lean to the road team at that number. Detroit has dominated this series the last couple years, winning and covering in five straight matchups. They have lost two straight coming into this one. The first was at Milwaukee, a very strong team in their own right. The second was at Indiana, and they blew a big lead in that one as the home team got momentum in the fourth quarter. We will forgive them for that slip up and back them here as they want to come away from this road trip with something to show for it and they will go all out for the win tonight.

10 Unit Play. #452 Take Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears are coming off a terrible performance against Green Bay last Sunday. They played terrible and coached terrible at different times in that game and still have a decent chance to win it. Now they take on the Lions, a team that has won two straight games, but they did not look impressive last week against Cleveland. The Bears beat the Lions last year in Chicago and Detroit is just 2-6 ATS (1 push) as a road favorite in a divisional game. Chicago is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 home games when they are an underdog. Chicago has already beaten Pittsburgh and Carolina at home this season and Detroit never seems to handle prosperity very well. 

Atlanta has a lot better ATS record (7-7-1) than they do SU record (3-12) and that is what we look for in a home underdog against a “buzz” team like the Celtics that are on a massive winning streak and just beat the world champs last time out. Atlanta always plays tough in this series and they have actually covered in five of the last six meetings. This is the first game of a new road trip for Boston and after their big win over the Warriors this is probably a letdown spot for the road team. It seems like the bookies are begging the public to take the Celtics here and they are obliging but we expect a close, low-scoring game here and we think that the underdog is the only way to go in this matchup.

This Pistons team is flying up our power rankings and we think this squad is legit. They are 10-4 SU this season and they have been a covering machine on the road. We think that they are in great shape for a big road win here on Friday night. These teams just played in Detroit recently and it was a very dominating performance by the Pistons, who won by 17. We think they could easily score a massive win here as the “revenge” angle is way overrated in NBA handicapping, especially for a team like Indiana that is one of the more lousy teams in the NBA this season. They are just trying to take the season game by game and if they have revenge on their minds then they are going to have a lot of enemies this season because they won’t win too many games. We think the Pistons are undervalued here on the road and we expect them to continue their strong play here on Friday.

7 Unit Play. #515 Take Xavier over Wisconsin (8:30 pm FS1) The spread tells me a great deal about the talent disparity in this match-up. Playing at the Kohl Center is generally worth 5-6 points and this game being a pick’em means that most of the talent lies with the Musketeers. Wisconsin is in complete rebuild mode and are very young outside of Ethan Happ. Xavier is a top 15 team in the country that made the Elite Eight last season and has a chance to reach the Final Four this year. Xavier is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday. Throw in the revenge factor for the 2016 NCAA Tournament and expect Xavier to pull away late and win this game by 6-8 points. 

The Celtics enter having won 13 straight but we think they are running into a buzzsaw tonight. Golden State has won seven straight themselves and they are in midseason form right now. When this team is playing well they can cover any line thrown at them over any team. And when they are motivated they are very dangerous. And there is no doubt they will be motivated tonight as they have a chance to halt this Celtics winning streak. The fact that Boston has won two of the last three meetings will fuel the Warriors fire even more. This is just the much better team slat out and we expect a big performance from the road team.

Houston has won six straight but they have played some pretty flawed teams during that stretch. Next to Cleveland this is the best team they have played during that stretch. We just think that this is too many points to give up to Toronto. The Raps haven’t been lined as this big of an underdog too much this season but they have covered every time they are getting decent points as they are 2-0 ATS when getting four or more. We see this as a very competitive game and we think that the Raptors are a very live underdog on Tuesday and they have a great chance to win this game outright, so getting this many points provides great betting value.

We think this is a real good spot for the Blazers tonight. Denver has been very good lately but they have played their last six games at home and it hasn’t always been against the best competition. Portland has been playing pretty mediocre basketball to start the season and they enter this matchup at 6-6. But they have played a lot of close games and we think they are playing better than that record might indicate. The Nuggets have played a very home-heavy schedule to start the season but they are just 2-3 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS this season. We think after losing two straight really close games that the Blazers will go all out for the win tonight. We had this game handicapped at Portland -4 with a strong lean to the home team at that number so to get them as a slight underdog is a gift here. We think these teams are about equal but we give the nod to Portland because of their great home-court advantage tonight.

Orlando is on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. That is really tough to do in the high altitude of Denver. The Nuggets had the night off on Friday and they should be primed for a big performance here tonight. The Nuggets have won four of five and they are playing really well, with their only loss during this stretch coming against the Warriors. This is the last game of a six-game homestand and if they get the win here tonight that will make it an extremely successful homestand. Denver has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series and they are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings at home in this series.

With the last two games in this series being decided by a grand total of three points (and the Bucks covering in both games) you have to like Milwaukee here with the underdog points on Friday. The Bucks are off to a real slow start to the season but this is a stock to buy low as this team will be a force this season and it just seems to be a matter of time until they start cashing tickets on a regular basis and we expect that to start tonight. Both teams have had a couple nights off but the Bucks are even more well rested with a real light schedule lately and we think they will want to flex their muscle in this game not only to end a four-game losing streak but to test their mettle against one of the best teams in the west.

OKC has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series. The Nuggets have been playing real well lately but their record is somewhat Fool’s Gold as they have run into some of the worst of the worst in the NBA this season. OKC has had a shaky start to the season and they have lost three straight. But we just think that there is some nice value here as if this game were at the start of the season the Thunder would probably be 4 or 5 point favorites here and we think that is a more solid number than this short one posted by the bookies. We think the road team gets back on the winning track here in the TNT nightcap.

While the Clippers have had zero success lately against the Warriors they have fared much better against the other Western Conference top power, the Spurs. They have won and covered in four of the last six matchups. And who can forget that awesome playoff series a few years ago where the Clips won in Game 7. After a hot start the Clippers have lost four of five. But this is a better team than that recent record. They are embarking on a long road trip and this is the first game and we think they will bring their A Game tonight to start the trip off on the right foot against a team they have had a lot of success against recently. The Spurs are banged up right now and this team is more vulnerable than ever.

Both of these teams have had slow starts to the season but the Cavs are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers and this team is a very poor 2-8 ATS this season. We think they are overvalued in this spot as well. The Bucks will want to play their best here and you get the feeling that this is just another game for Cleveland. These teams already played this season and the Cavs blew the Bucks out and that loss is probably still fresh on their minds. We expect a much better performance from the road team here in this matchup. Milwaukee is well rested here with three nights off and with that extra time we think they will be primed to end the losing streak here and even if they don’t we expect a close game here.

Atlanta always seems to get pumped for this matchup and they have won and covered four of the last five meetings. The Celtics are playing great basketball right now and they have won and covered eight straight. But with that success comes inflated lines and this one sure looks inflated tonight. The Hawks are not very good this year but we expect this Atlanta team to be a plucky underdog in spots this year, especially at home. They haven’t yet won a home game this season and that won’t continue long and we think they give extra effort tonight in order to try and secure that first win against a team that has become a bit overrated by oddsmakers. We might throw a few bucks on the moneyline here but we think this many points is too good to pass up.

Utah has a strong history in this series recently as they have covered three of the last four meetings, winning in all three of those games. The Jazz have been playing great basketball to start the season but they hit a roadblock last time out against the Raptors for their first home loss. They have yet to win on the road but two of those games were really tough matchups and they had that one loss against Phoenix that was just a head scratcher. But we think they will bring their A Game in hopes to get that elusive first road win and show the league that they aren’t only a good home team. Utah has been really good against the number this season at 6-3 ATS and we think that they are undervalued again here. Both of these teams have trended to the under this season but we think the oddsmakers have overadjusted the number here and it seems there is nice value on the over.

10 Unit Play. #454 Take New York Giants over Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off a bye week and I just do not see the Giants getting blown out in this game. New York has owned this match-up beating Los Angeles 7 straight times (7-0 ATS) with a 13-point average margin of victory. The Rams are a nondivisional road favorite for just the third time in 10 years. I believe the Rams are playing a little over their heads now and this will be their second cross country flight in three weeks (London Game two weeks ago). The Rams are 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC teams. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

Denver is coming in on a back-to-back but they always play the Warriors tough and we expect the same on Saturday night. In fact, Denver won the last meeting, by 22 points, the last time these teams met in this building. They have covered the last two meetings and in seven of the last nine overall. The Warriors looked real good in their last two games in blowing out the Clippers and the Spurs, both on the road. But those are two of Golden State’s biggest rivals and we think they were pretty amped up for those games. But overall they are slogging through the first couple weeks of the season and they are just 3-6 ATS as they have not been bringing a championship effort every night. And teams are giving their best against them in just about every matchup. We think that will be the case here for Denver on Saturday night.

The Spurs have lost four straight, but three of those were on the road and last night they lost to a motivated Golden State team that is one of the best squads of all time. This Spurs team just does not lose multiple games that often and they want to end the losing streak tonight at home. Sometimes on back-to-backs Gregg Popovich may rest players. But they are already shorthanded with Leonard out and we think they give full effort tonight. We have taken the Hornets sparingly this season but for us mostly this is a team to fade until Nic Batum comes back as he is one of their key cogs. The Hornets have not beat the Spurs since 2016, losing 10 straight in the series. The Hornets have played well, but they have had a relatively easy schedule and it has been home-heavy as well. We think that the Spurs are being punished too much by the oddsmakers here for the back-to-back but I can’t see a team that will be more motivated to get a win here on Friday night.

The Warriors have struggled to start the season. They are just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But their Monday win at LA Clippers showed that all they have to do is flip a switch and they can be back in championship form. They wanted that win badly against the Clippers and we think that they will be similarly motivated for this contest against the Spurs, arguably the second-best team in the west. The Spurs have started slow as well and they are banged up right now. We don’t think they will be able to have much success against a healthy and motivated Warriors team. Golden State might be a team to fade early season against sub-par opponents or laying big numbers. But with this game on the road and considering the quality of the opponent we think the price is right here and there is a good chance that this game will be a blowout.

The Suns have won three of four since their coaching chance but they face a much tougher test tonight against one of the best teams in the east. This Phoenix team is coming in on a back-to-back after a win last night in Brooklyn where they expended a lot of energy. Washington has had a couple nights off and they will be anxious for a big win here after coming back from a west coast swing where things didn’t go as well as they would have hoped. The Wizards have covered in three of four games and we think they are rested and poised for a massive blowout win tonight against a fatigued Suns squad that is in over their heads.

The Pacers have been decent to start the season but there’s no way this team should be favored by this many points against any team in the league. The Kings have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four but the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. The Kings have had a very tough schedule to open the season but this is a real winnable game for them so we expect them to go all out. Their tough schedule up to this point will help them as they face this weaker opponent. Indiana is coming off a win against the Spurs and they play at Cleveland tomorrow so this is more of a meaningless game for them and we expect the effort to be with the road team here.