Sports Picks & Predictions

Golden State is mortal on the road where they have lost six games this season. The Spurs are immortal at home where they are 34-0 this season. This is a major revenge spot for the Spurs after their beat down in the Bay Area in January. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor for us in the NBA but when it’s a team like the Spurs getting beat up like that you know they will have a chip on their shoulder. We are helped here in the fact that the Warriors have a back-to-back here. They used a lot of energy in their big win last night in Dallas and they are going to need everything they have here. And not only are the Warriors on a back-to-back but they have a couple key injuries as Bogut and Iguodala will both miss this game so they aren’t at full strength while the Spurs are completely healthy with a blank injury list. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings and we love their chances for a signature win tonight.

The Sixers are always overvalued at home. This team is 13-19-1 at home this season. The oddsmakers give them too much credit for home-court advantage. At 6-27 at home the fans don’t have a lot to cheer about. So Philly is getting some extra credit from the oddsmakers for being at home here. The Wizards are also getting dinged for being on a back-to-back. We don’t think those two factors will matter and we expect a big game from the Wizards here. The dog days of the summer are over. The Wizards are a good team that has been a disappointment this season. They are currently in the 10th position in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, a couple games back from the eight seed. They can’t overlook a game like this and take the night off like they have so many times this season. They need to win and win big here. Being the eight seed in the east is not a death sentence like in the west as the east is pretty wide open this season. But the Wizards have to make their playoff push now. And this team has been playing excellent basketball. They beat the Bulls by 21 last night and the Pistons by 43 on Monday. This team is healthy, unlike the Sixers who stink with a full roster but are really banged up now, and they are playing incredibly well on offense. That’s a bad sign for the Sixers, who have given up 256 points in their last two games. The Sixers don’t have much reason to play better than they have been tonight and the Wizards have every reason to win this one big. Oh yeah, and the Wiz Kids are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Philly.

10 Unit Play. #742 Take Purdue over Arkansas Little Rock (4:30 pm TBS) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Purdue is one of the most physical teams in the country and their size will be too much for the Trojans to overcome. UALR played in a weak one bid league this season and they have yet to see a team as big as Purdue. The Trojans play a very similar style as does the Boilermakers, both rely on defense and that fits right into Purdue’s strength. UALR averages just 33.8 rebounds per game (286th in the country) and Hammonds and company will fest on the backboards on both ends of the floor. Purdue comes in with a chip on their shoulder as they gave away the Big 10 Tournament Championship Game by failing to execute down the stretch. The Trojans played just two teams this season that made NCAA Tournament (Texas Tech & Tulsa both bubble teams). The only question is how well Purdue will shoot the basketball because of they can find the touch from long range they will win this game by 15-18 points. When Purdue wins, it tends to come by double digits. 

This is a big rivalry now after last year’s playoff series that saw the Rockets come back from 3-1 down in the series and down big late in Game 5 to come back and win it in Game 7. It has been tough going lately for the Clippers who have been blown out in three of their last four games. But those games were all against teams that were very strong in OKC, San Antonio and Cleveland. The Cavs game was an off game and the Spurs game was very close heading into the fourth quarter before the Spurs started hitting all their shots and the Clips went cold. But they face a step down in competition here and the Rockets aren’t as good as they have been in the past. This team has been a very poor betting team this season at 30-37 ATS. They are often overvalued here at home where they are 13-19 ATS, and we feel that is the case tonight. LA is 8-5 straight up on back-to-backs this season so we are not too worried about fatigue. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a loss so they normally bounce back strong. After two blowouts and facing a lesser opponent they will likely go all out tonight to get a win here. We actually have the Clippers as a slight favorite in this one and even if they do lose we just don’t see a blowout here tonight. So the spread could come into play if they don’t play as well as we expect them to. But we do think they will win this one straight up. The Rockets have not done well against teams that play well on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning road record.

The Clippers match up well with the Spurs and they have won three of the last four meetings, including that blowout right after the all-star break. LA played one of their worst games of the season last time out at home vs. Cleveland, but they have been very good after a loss and they will be anxious to put that game behind them with a solid performance here tonight. This is just too many points and a very public line. The Clippers have a pretty bad rap and the public has lost confidence in them since Blake Griffin went down, but this team has been playing overall very well and they are competitive on a nightly basis save for a rare off game. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss. This is the most points the Clippers have gotten all season as a dog and we think there is very nice value on the underdog here.

Golden State has won big and covered in all of the last three meetings and tonight they face a broken and demoralized New Orleans team that has dropped three straight and seen This team is now closer to the bottom of the standings in the conference than the playoff hunt and we think we are going to see some more bad play down the stretch run of the season from this group. They are in way over their heads tonight. Anthony Davis is a great young player, but the key word is “young” and he just doesn’t have enough experience to put this team on his shoulders down the stretch and they don’t have a lot of leader types on this team so this is one to go against down the stretch. The Warriors are getting back to their dominating ways lately and have had a couple blowouts in recent games and we expect to see the best from this team tonight against a very familiar opponent.

10 Unit Play. #888 Take Connecticut over Memphis (3:15 pm ESPN) Besides the players and coaches I just do not believe Memphis wants to win this game and make the NCAA Tournament. That is because they would have to keep their coach for the fans, media, and administration want to replace. We saw yesterday that Connecticut was not tired despite playing in a marathon on Friday and they should have even more energy for this game. The Huskies are not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and thus the cannot afford to take this game lightly. UCONN beat Memphis twice this season including a 20-point victory in Memphis last March. Memphis is not a bid stealer today. Connecticut is 35-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 51 neutral site games. 

This is a real bad spot for the Pelicans tonight. Not only do they come in on a back-to back after a grueling overtime game last night against physical Memphis, but this will be their third game in four nights. On the other hand, the Bucks have had two nights off to rest and prepare for this game and we think they will come out and play a solid game here. This team has been good at home lately where they have won three of five. One of those losses was to OKC and one was a close one to Indiana. But they face a step down in competition here from those games and we think this is a real good spot for a rested team to do their best work tonight. The Pelicans are just 3-10 on back-to-backs this season and they do not play well in these situations and while both teams are banged up the Pelicans have a worse injury situation and the Bucks are flat out undervalued tonight.

10 Unit Play. #748 Take Kansas over West Virginia (6 pm ESPN) The final score of the Kansas game was not indicative of how Kansas was in control for 40 minutes and was never in danger of losing that game. West Virginia got a gift from Oklahoma down the stretch and they are certainly playing with house money in this game. That being said Kansas is far and away the best team in the league and they have a big advantage playing this conference tournament in Kansas City. Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and they do not beat themselves. West Virginia will not be able to make enough jump shots to stay close and it will be rock chalk Jayhawk on Saturday evening. Kansas has not only been winning a lot of late they have been covering the spread as well going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. 

The Clippers have been great at bouncing back from losses lately where they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after a loss. They lost a bad one to OKC last time out, now they are back home against a way inferior opponent and we expect them to play well and win big here. The Clippers have dominated this series the last few years. They have won seven straight meetings by double digits and they have covered in all but one of those, where they missed the cover by just half a point. LA has played a pretty light schedule lately with no back-to-backs and they have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who were off last night but were on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so this will be their third game in four nights. This team just hasn’t been playing well consistently and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight.

10 Unit Play. #532 Take St Josephs over George Washington (2:30 pm NBCSN) We have collected big with St Joes all season long and will go to the well once again. The Hawks have been in a freefall at the moment losing two straight games to close out the regular season but I expect them to rebound on Friday. Neither team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament and thus the Hawks just cannot go through the motions. St. Joes is not a good match-up for George Washington evident by the fact they beat them by 18 points in the district (GW’s home floor). The Colonials struggled to put away a bad Billikens yesterday and the rested Hawks are ready to attack and jump on them early in this game. George Washington is 0-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played on Friday. St Joes is 19-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Friday. St Josephs is much more physical and that will pay dividends in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #784 Take New Mexico over Nevada (5:30 pm CBSSN) We used this same game over the weekend and easily hit with the underdog Lobos in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. The fact remains that Nevada just cannot shoot the ball well enough this season to beat top teams and will likely be without Marqueze Colman for this game yet again. If the Lobos played with the same effort that Nevada does, they would have won the regular season title. This team has been shaky most of the season but the just have much more talent than does Nevada. New Mexico dominated both of the regular season meetings and it should be no different in Las Vegas. Nevada has never won a conference tournament game in the MWC and the Lobos have had some success in Las Vegas and always bring a big fan base. Nevada is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. 

The Suns are the worst team in basketball and no way they should be a favorite over anyone right now. In fact, this team is 4-9 ATS when laying four or fewer points this season. Yes, interim coach Earl Watson has this team playing hard and they pulled a couple upsets lately, but this team should suffer in the role of the favorite tonight. The Knicks aren’t very good but they are at least one tier up from the Suns. We had them as a slight favorite in this one, even on a back-to-back. New York is 8-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so we don’t see the lack of rest as such a big deal. The Suns lost their two best players to injury and while this starting unit has some young talent, there is a lot less established talent than with the visitors tonight and the Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, who is the best player by far on the court and a player that can dominate a team like the Suns. The wrong team is favored here.

Stock is down on Utah right now as they have lost five of six games. However, four of those games were on the road and one of the two home games was against the Spurs. This is one of the many NBA teams that is a different team at home than on the road. This team is very good at home and we think they bounce back here in what is a very winnable game. The Hawks have been playing well but they are in the fourth game of a five-game road trip and this trip has seemed to go a little too well for them so we think there is a chance they are due for a bad game. Utah already beat Atlanta on the road this season and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. This game is much more important for the Jazz who are just on the outside of the playoff picture and we think they score a big home win tonight.

The Warriors suffered a rare loss last night to the LA Lakers. This wasn’t a sign of anything wrong with this team or that they are weakened somehow. They simply had a bad game and some cold shooting. This is a long NBA season and all the best teams will have a game like that now and again. The Warriors make less of a habit of it than most. This is one of the most motivated and driven teams we have ever watched in the NBA and there is no doubt they will play a lot better here tonight against another very inferior opponent. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in back-to-backs and they are one of the best in the league in these situations so it doesn’t bother us in the least that they are playing a B-2-B here. In fact, with their stellar B-2-B results and the fact they suffered such a bad loss last night indicates they are due for a big bounce back here. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Orlando and the Warriors won by 16. They shot better than 60 percent from the field in that game and that is a bad sign for Orlando tonight after the Warriors were cold last night. We expect some very hot shooting here from the home team. Orlando is coming off a near 20-point loss to Phoenix last time out. That is probably the worst team in the NBA right now. This team has just not been playing well lately and their defense is horrible and we think GSW will be very motivated tonight after the bad one on Sunday. We will give the Warriors a mulligan and expect a huge bounce back effort from them tonight.

Portland has been playing really well for the last month or so but since this team has been getting some buzz the odds have been overadjusted on some of their games, and we think that is the case here as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -3.5 and we would have leaned to the home team at that number. So we think there is a ton of value in this current line. This is the last game of a six-game road trip for Portland and they have lost the last two games, so you can tell they are ready to get home. Detroit has lost two straight as well but those were both on the road and one was to the Spurs. Before that they had won and covered four straight, including three double-digit wins (including one vs. Toronto) and also a eight-point road win at Cleveland. This Detroit team is very solid and even though they come in on a back-to-back they are 7-6 ATS in these situations this season so we don’t think it will be a problem.

We love the way the Clippers have been playing lately and this team seems determined to make up for their slow start on the season. They just keep winning and covering lines, and the bookies have been slow to adjust their lines for this team. LA is well rested here as they have had two nights off and the Hawks come into this one on a back-to-back (6-9 ATS on back-to-backs). The Clippers have done their best work this season as a marginal favorite and they are 14-6 ATS as a favorite of less than six points. Most of those games are here at Staples Center against weaker opponents like is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 7.5 or 8.0, and we think there is some great value with the home team tonight as we think a rested Clippers team takes care of business comfortably in this one.

The Timberwolves are trending heavily to the over lately.  Ten of their last 12 games have gone over the posted total and a reason for that is that this team has given up any effort on defense. Six of their last nine games have seen the opponent score 110+, and we expect Milwaukee to have a big game on offense and they can basically pick their score tonight. The Bucks are in fine form offensively and recently put up 128 on Houston. They have also given up 100+ in six straight games on defense. We think points will come in bunches tonight and we think both teams get well over the century mark and we think this line is too low for the home team. We think Milwaukee will have a huge night on offense and the T-Wolves will make up the difference to get this one over the posted number.

Will take a shot with the Suns again here on Thursday night. Yes, Phoenix stinks. But the more they lose the bigger the odds get, and that creates value. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they win a lot of low-scoring games. Hard to trust them to cover the big number here tonight. In fact, this team is just 1-6 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. The Heat have played down to their level of opposition a lot this season at home, and that is why they have had such a bad ATS mark against lousy teams here. The Suns are coming off a really bad effort last time in Charlotte and that loss was one of the worst of the season. But this is an NBA team and they have an interim coach in Earl Watson who will get a better effort out of his team tonight. Of course the Heat are without Chris Bosh right now and that hurts this team’s chances to cover the big number. We don’t think either team will do anything special on offense and expect a low-scoring game here, which makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable.

10 Unit Play. #770 Take Fresno State over Colorado State (11 pm CBSSN) This line should be double digits. Colorado State is coming off a tough loss to Nevada in overtime and going back on the road again will do them in. I feel Fresno State is playing the best basketball of anyone in the MWC at the moment and they have a good chance to win the MWC Tournament next week. This team is starting to get healthy and will enter this game having won four straight games. They also have the best player on the court in Marvelle Harris and he is the reason why they can win it all next week in Las Vegas. The Rams are not performed well on the road this season and they have lost four of their last five games (none were against top teams in the league). Colorado State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 

This is a big look-ahead spot for the Thunder, who play Golden State tomorrow on TNT. That game on Saturday was one of the best of the year and the Thunder lost it in heartbreaking fashion. They have to be licking their chops to get another chance in the Bay Area tomorrow and this game is probably an afterthought to them. The Clippers have been sneaky good lately. They just keep winning games and covering spreads while waiting for Blake Griffin to rejoin the team. They have played well in this series and have covered the last two meetings. This team is 9-2 ATS as a small favorite this season and they normally get the job done in these situations. The Thunder are one of the worst ATS teams this season and we think that this is another spot where they are being overrated.

This is way too many points for the Hornets to be laying tonight, even against a team like the Suns. Charlotte has lost two of three, so they are not in good form right now. This is the first home game for them after a long road trip, and that is always a trouble spot for big favorites. The Hornets have not been good as a big favorite this season as they are 3-6 ATS when laying five or more points. They are just 3-5 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams this season. The Suns should come into this game with a lot of confidence after knocking off Memphis at home last time out. They also played the Spurs and Warriors very tough recently and covered in both of those contests. They have had two nights off to prepare for this game so they should be primed to play their best. Phoenix has a very strong history in this series as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte. They have won the last two meetings (and six of the last seven), including one this season in January in Phoenix by nine points. We feel the road team is in a nice position to succeed tonight and they will keep this one within double digits.

10 Unit Play. #719 Take Kansas over Texas (9 pm ESPN) Unlike Oklahoma, Kansas is not soft and playing these road games in hostile environments means everything to this team (even more the NCAA Tournament success). This is just too big of a gauntlet for Texas to run and they have already earned a berth into the NCAA Tournament this season. Beating Oklahoma was great, but the Sooners gave away that game letting Texas close on a 25-5 run. Again Oklahoma is soft, Kansas is not. The Jayhawks have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games. 

10 Unit Play. #836 Take Wisconsin over Michigan (6 pm BTN) This game got bumped off of CBS but that just makes it that much stronger for Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing like the second best team in the conference at the moment only behind Michigan State. They are winning home and away and also winning when they play good or play bad. Michigan is coming off two straight road losses and I just do not believe they are playing well at the moment. Their score against Northwestern was misleading and much closer than the nine-point margin would indicate. But the main reason for this selection is that this is just not a typical Michigan team. The Wolverines rely so much on the three point shot and they just do not have the shooters like they have in year’s past. Coach Gard is just moments away from being named permanent head coach and this Badger team has responded in a great way. The Badgers have lost just one game since January 13th and they have the ability to score on Michigan in a variety of ways. Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Big 10 games. 73% of the overnight money is on Wisconsin and it is for very good reason. The line should be 8.5 and we will pound this short number. 

Just don’t think that this Orlando team should be laying this many points to anyone. There is value in the visiting Sixers tonight. Orlando just hasn’t been good in the favorite role this season and they are 1-6 ATS when laying five or more points. The Magic are just 6-19 since the new year and that is not the type of team you want to lay big chalk with, even against a team like Philly. But this is a very winnable road game for the Sixers. These teams played less than a week ago and the game was very close throughout. The Magic finally pulled away in the fourth quarter and won by nine (they outscored the Sixers by five in the fourth) but it was a close game throughout, and since these teams played so recently we think that gives the underdog a better chance since they will be able to make adjustments.

No Derrick Rose tonight. No Butler. Of course, no Noah. Without the core of the team this Chicago team is below average. Heck, even with these guys in the lineup this team has been a big disappointment. Even though the Blazers lost last time out vs. Houston this team had won six straight prior to that loss, including a blowout at home against the Warriors. This team has been underrated all season and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and really coming together as a team. The Bulls have been one of the worst ATS teams all season long and this team keeps getting too much respect from the oddsmakers because of the name on the jersey. Unless Rose miraculously plays this line is a gift and even if he does take the court we expect the road team to control this one and score the pretty easy win.

10 Unit Play. #569 Take South Carolina over Mississippi State (2:30 pm SECN) The Gamecocks have a gaudy record and they are not as good as their 23-5 record would indicate but they have enough talent to beat Mississippi State in Starkville. Carolina has won two straight games against teams that are ahead of Mississippi State in the standing and already beat the Bulldogs by double digits this season on January 26th. The Bulldogs are improving under first year coach Ben Howland but this will take a major rebuild and moving to the top of the standings will have to wait a couple of years. Mississippi State already has home losses to Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Yes, they played A & M tough this week but this is more a statement of how far the Aggies have fallen compared to how much the Bulldogs have improved. Carolina has not only been winning games they have been covering the spread as well going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games. Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday. The better team just has to win on Saturday and that will happen easily. 

Revenge isn’t normally a big handicapping factor for us when it comes to the NBA, but we think it will come into play big time here tonight in Indiana. Earlier this month, on this same floor, the Hornets came in and embarrassed Indiana with a 22-point win in the first meeting of the season between these teams. There is no doubt Indiana has had this game circled since then. Indiana has been playing very well lately. They will come into this one with a lot of confidence after winning five of their last seven, including a road win at OKC. Charlotte had won five straight recently but they had a momentum killer last time out in a loss at Cleveland where they played very flat the entire game. Once a big streak like that is snapped teams tend to go back to their normal nightly effort. That’s why wins and losses often come in waves in the NBA. Charlotte is one of those teams that is very good at home and really lousy at home. They are just 10-18 on the road. Indiana is 18-9 at home. Indiana has also been very good against teams with winning records when at home as they are 10-4 ATS in these situations. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the home squad tonight.

The Spurs have by far the best defense in the NBA this season as they hold opponents to less than 93 points per game. The Jazz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They also have a strong defense, but the Spurs can score on offense. They have a lot of edges in this matchup all over the court and on the sideline in Coach Popovich as well. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup for the Spurs and he is their best player now. He will be a difference maker tonight, and we think there is a good chance for a blowout here. Yes, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, but they got an easy win last night and they are 11-0 in back-to-backs this season (7-4 ATS). They had two nights off before last night’s game so they should be fine here as far as fatigue. Both meetings thus far this season were major Spurs blowouts and we think the bookies are giving the Jazz way to much credit tonight.

10 Unit Play. #766 Take Utah over Arizona State (9 pm PAC-12) When the opening lines were posted I could not believe this spread was in single digits. Utah is starting to put things together and will enter this game having won four straight including an impressive sweep of the LA teams last week in Southern California. The Utes still have a great chance to win the conference with three home games to close out the regular season. The Sun Devils have won just one road game on the season during PAC-12 play and their last four losses overall have come by double digits. Arizona State is 6-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 PAC-12 Conference games. Utah is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 games played on Thursday.  

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Denver has lost three straight but this team recently covered 11 of 12 games and they are undervalued again here. We thought that this line should be closer to eight points and we think there is a very good chance that this will be a close game. The Clippers are a very public team and even though they have played well to come out of the break one of those wins was against Phoenix and the blowout against the Spurs was more of an off game for San Antonio than a great one for LA. But Denver has lost by more than 10 only once in the last five meetings and they always tend to play well in this series. They have also been playing very well on offense and they should be able to score enough points to keep this one close and be in a position to win this one late. We think the total is about five points too low and expect this one to be a barnburner at Staples Center.

10 Unit Play. #576 Take Nevada over Utah State (10 pm the MWC) The Wolf Pack already beat the Aggies in Logan and expect them to complete the season sweep on Wednesday. Utah State has struggled on the road this season and they do not play much defense whatsoever. The Wolf Pack is one of the top teams in the MWC and they still have a great chance to earn a top four seed in the upcoming MWC Tournament. Nevada is seconds away from winning straight games and this team seems to give maximum effort each and every night. The Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. 

This is the worst version of this Bulls team that we have seen in years and there is no way they should be laying this many points to anyone, even the Lakers. Chicago has been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 21-33 ATS. They are 10-17 ATS here at home and 3-8 ATS at home against losing teams. LA comes into this game very healthy and this team has been scrappy lately with six straight covers. This is a team that is playing hard every game lately but they keep losing so their spreads are staying honest. We think the home team is overvalued again tonight and we expect a close game here and think the Lakers have a really good chance to win this one straight up.

10 Unit Play. #525 Take Miami over North Carolina (1 pm CBS) ACC Game of the Year. Miami has the talent to run up and down the floor with North Carolina and taking the points in early games is always a good thing. The Hurricanes are a quite 21-4 and will enter this game having won 5 straight games. Carolina is coming off a disappointing game against Duke in which they gave away the game against a depleted Blue Devil team. Expect a carryover effect in this game against Miami, a team that beat Duke by double-digits this season. People are really starting to question Roy Williams as an in-game coach and I do not see this critique ending any time soon. The Tar Heels have lost three of their last five games and this is one of the worst shooting teams from the arc in the conference including going 1 for 13 last time out. Miami knows that if they win this game, they can win the ACC regular season title and expect them to whether the storm early then take control in the second half. Miami is 9-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played on Saturday. North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. 

We don’t think the Clippers are any match for a well-rested Spurs team here on Thursday night. Yes, LA has been playing much better since Blake Griffin first went out with injury. They, however, haven’t had a very challenging schedule during that stretch, and they didn’t perform great against the best competition. Let’s look at their toughest games: at Boston (OT loss), at Atlanta (2-point win), at Indiana (2-point win), at Toronto (blowout loss), at Cleveland (blowout loss), vs. Houston (OT win). They will face a huge step up in talent tonight against the Spurs. Now let’s look at how the Clippers have done this season against the NBA’s best: vs. OKC (one-point loss), at San Antonio (8-point loss), vs. Golden State (seven-point loss), at Golden State (four-point loss). And Griffin was playing in those games. Yes, the team has done well without Griffin but that came against some questionable competition. This team hasn’t done well with Griffin in the lineup against the best teams and they are just not as good of a team without him despite what their recent record might indicate. We think they are outmatched tonight. The Spurs don’t need much motivation to play well, but they will want to start the second half of the season strong with a marquee win here. The Spurs always play well here in LA and have covered in five of the last seven meetings and they have covered in five of the last seven overall. Add in some unprecedented rest and that tilts the needle further in the Spurs favor here. The Spurs are one of the best teams to bet on this season and have compiled a 34-19 ATS record, and they are often undervalued on the road (15-10 ATS). The Clips are just 4-6 ATS at home against winning teams, and just that small sample size shows that they haven’t been tested a lot here. The Spurs are a much better overall team and this line is right tonight.

10 Unit Play. #713 Take George Washington over Duquesne (7 pm) The Colonials are fighting for their NCAA Tournament life and will enter Wednesday in a must win situation as their victory over Virginia can only take them so far. That being said they already beat this team by 27 points this season and playing in Pittsburgh should not all the Dukes to win this game. GW has already won three conference road games this season including at VCU so expect them to take this game by 7-10 points. The Dukes are coming off an OT game giving up 108 points to UMASS. 

10 Unit Play. #606 Take Maryland over Wisconsin (6:30 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. Wisconsin appears to have righted the ship but to me it is just fool’s gold. They have won six straight games but four of them were at home and the two road wins were against bottom feeders Illinois and Penn State (combined 6-14 in conference play). They have recorded quality wins during this streak against Michigan State and Indiana but they had a major edge in free throws in both of those games. Both coaches chirped about this and we have seen in recent games that the refs are not sending Wisconsin to the free throw line that often and that will definitely be the case against on Saturday. It has been over a month since Wisconsin has had to play in a hostile environment and their schedule is really back loaded as they still have to play at Iowa, at Michigan State, & at Purdue after this trip to College Park.

Maryland is the best offensive team in the conference and one of the top five teams in the country. They are loaded at every position and will enter this game having won five in a row. In the first meeting against Wisconsin, Maryland was in control before a late Badger rally nearly sent the game into overtime. That will not be the case tonight, as Maryland just does not lose games at home. Maryland beat a much better Wisconsin team at home last season and this game means a lot of Diamond Stone, as he shunned Wisconsin for Maryland and I expect him to come up big yet again. Maryland is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games played on Saturday. Had the line been only 5 or 6 points I would have likely gotten off this game but the line being at 9 shows me that the sharp money will be on Maryland, while the public will be all over Wisconsin. 

We think the Thunder are the clear play of the week in this spot tonight. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. A win here would get them to 40 wins before the all-star break, and that will be huge motivation. They will also be motivated by the death of Ingrid Williams, the wife of assistant Monty Williams. By all accounts she was very special to the team and they will no doubt play this game in her honor. And their opponent tonight is the Pelicans, the team that fired Williams as he was their head coach for quite awhile. Regardless of those angles the Thunder are just a vastly superior team here. This is the second-best offensive team in the NBA, and the Pelicans have one of the worst defenses. We don’t think they will be able to keep up here. OKC is well rested having had two nights off while the Pelicans will be playing on the road in a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Also, news came out yesterday that Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans second-best player, is likely out for the season. And that hurts a team that was already fragile to begin with. Anthony Davis is too young to carry the weight of the entire team on his shoulders.

10 Unit Play. #785 Take Greensboro over VMI (7 pm) The Keydets have mailed in the season as they are 1-11 in a weak Southern Conference this season. Since the turn of the calendar they have won just 1 game and will enter this game having lost six straight games. Only one of those games was competitive and the Spartans have already beaten the Keydets by 17 points this season. Greensboro is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. VMI is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall. 

If the Warriors are ever going to take a game off this is probably it. They can beat the Suns without much effort. This is their last game before the All-Star break and this squad has a lot going on during the break and there won’t be a lot of “rest” involved. Just don’t see them putting in enough effort tonight to cover this huge number on the road. This team has done enough good work for the first half of the season that they deserve to take a night off here. Even if they don’t the Suns should play hard here. There is absolutely no reason for them to relax tonight. They have a new coach and they have been more competitive lately. Every time Golden State comes to town it’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team and that will be the case for the Suns tonight. Phoenix has covered in two of the last four, and while that is not incredibly impressive they did not embarrass themselves in any of those games and they seem to have inspired motivation now that Hornacek is out of the picture.

10 Unit Play. #757 Take New Mexico over Utah State (10 pm CBSSN) I like the Lobos and they are coming off a frustrating game against San Diego State in which they had the Aztecs on the ropes in San Diego before a late collapse. I believe they will take out their frustrations out on the Aggies, a team they already beat by 18 points this season. The Aggies have lost five straight games and they have not been able to compete in the MW since joining the league a couple of years ago. They are a terrible defensive team and expect New Mexico to light up the scoreboard. Finally, their home court edge is all but gone the last few years already losing five times in Logan this season. The Lobos have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. 

The Jazz have been playing well but they still stink on the road and we think they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is just 8-15 on the road this season, and that is with winning their last two road games, although those wins came over Brooklyn and Phoenix, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They face a step up in class here and we think Dallas wins this one pretty comfortably. Utah has lost 10 straight here in Dallas. They have covered in just one of the last eight meetings overall. Dallas wins and losses seem to come in waves and they recently lost three straight against a tough schedule but they earned a big OT win last time out in Memphis and we think they keep the momentum going here against a hot Utah team that has done most of their solid work lately against a home-heavy schedule. Let’s see how they fare here on the road against a solid Western Conference foe.

Love this line for the visitors here tonight as we had the Pelicans handicapped at -3 so we think there is incredible value tonight with the wrong team favored. New Orleans has lost four straight but three of those losses came to the Spurs, Cavs and Grizzlies and then the Lakers caught them in a back-to-back after that Spurs matchup. That’s a very tough schedule. The role of favorite has been one of the worst for Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-10 ATS record as favorite this season and they are a lousy 8-17-1 ATS at home. The bookies are down on New Orleans right now but we think they are the better team in this matchup against a team that has shown to have no home-court edge and we think the Pelicans get the win tonight.

The Sixers haven’t been favored many times this season but when they have been favorites they have taken care of business with a 2-0 ATS record as favorites. This is a bad spot for Brooklyn. They broke a five-game losing streak with probably their biggest win of the season last night, 128-119 over Sacramento. Now they come in on a back-to-back, on the road, and this is their third game in four nights. Philly is in the same rest situation but being at home is a big advantage here. They are just 2-7 on back-to-backs this season. They used up a lot of energy in that win last night and we think they come out flat on defense here and that will give Philly a big advantage on the offensive end. Philly is 6-3 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. The Nets are 3-7 ATS as a small underdog of less than three points this season. These teams don’t play good defense in the best of situations but it should be even worse tonight since these teams are fatigued. Offense comes naturally to NBA-level players but defense is something that requires a lot of energy and we don’t see either team playing any D tonight.

10 Unit Play. #547 Take St Josephs over Fordham (2 pm) The Hawks are just a much better team than are the Rams. St Joes ran into a hot shooting team on Wednesday and suffered a rare loss but expect them to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. The Rams have not recorded a quality win during conference play and their last three losses have been blowouts. St Joes is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games. Fordham is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. 

Brooklyn has covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series and once again we think they are getting too many points here. Sacramento is just 8-15 on the road and that is similar to the Nets home record and this is just an inflated line because the public bettors will never take Brooklyn in this scenario. Sacramento was hot but they have cooled off big time lately and are more like the Kings we have become accustomed to. They have won just one of their last six games and their only cover was in that win over Milwaukee. Brooklyn has covered two of their last three games and this team has been competitive and we think they are undervalued again tonight.

The Pistons have dropped three of four, but look who they lost to: vs. Cleveland, at Toronto and at Boston. They didn’t embarrass themselves in any of those games. They will be desperate to get back on the winning track here on national TV. In fact, this is the team’s first home game on TNT in years, so they will want to play their best, and we think they bring their A Game tonight. This spread pretty much counts for home-court advantage but we think the Pistons are a much better squad with a much higher upside. We think this line has some very nice value. The Knicks are not playing well right now and have dropped six of their last seven. Four of those losses were by double digits and the lone win was vs. Phoenix, who is making a case for the worst team in the NBA. Detroit is a very good ATS team at home (15-7-1 on the season) and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home against teams with a losing record.

We think the Heat are in a real tough spot here in their second of a back-to-back, both on the road, after getting smacked around by Houston last night. Now they face a very solid Dallas club that has been money at home. They have covered six straight here in Dallas and we think this number is short once again. The Mavs have had a pretty tough road schedule lately and haven’t performed that well on the road compared to at home so this team’s stock is down a bit right now. And Dallas has been excellent as a small favorite this year and they have a nice revenge angle for the New Year’s Day beating Miami gave them in South Beach. We will see a much different game than that one tonight.

10 Unit Play. #532 Take St Josephs over St Bonaventure (7 pm) Just cannot go against the Hawks until they lose a game. They are playing outstanding basketball at the moment and faring very well against the spread as well. The Hawks have lost just one game since December and that came against VCU, a game they dominated for 37 minutes only to give it away at the end of the second half. They really have not had many competitive games for their 18 wins (especially recently) and that is amazing since they are not a lights out shooting team. The Bonnies are a solid team but they are not ready to challenge the top teams in the Atlantic 10. The Hawks are 13-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games overall. 

Just too many points here. The Bucks come in on a back-to-back and they have not been playing well lately. But Portland isn’t good enough to be laying this many points to a Milwaukee team that isn’t that bad. Only three games in the win column separate these teams and Portland has exceeded expectations while Milwaukee is having a disappointing season. But the more the Bucks lose the bigger the lines get, and that creates betting value. Portland comes in having won four straight. But that was against an easy schedule. Milwaukee matches up well here and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Portland is overpriced here and we think this will be a pretty close game and a Milwaukee win would not be at all shocking as they have played well in this series and you have to go back to 2013 when one of these matchups was decided by more than seven points.

10 Unit Play. #751 Take Duke over Georgia Tech (9 pm ESPN U) Duke has had over one week to process how bad they have been playing this season. Expect Coach K to fix that and they will get this road game in Atlanta on Tuesday. Georgia Tech showed some signs during the nonconference portion of the season but they are reeling at the moment having lost six of their last eight games. Duke has beaten Georgia Tech is 32 of the last 35 games including 11 of the last 13 games in Atlanta. Just feel at some point Duke is going to start to put things together and this is a game they need in order to right he ship. Duke is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss in their previous game. 

The Spurs are the second best team in basketball and along with Golden State they are NBA royalty right now. The Cavs are on a lower level. There might be a chance for a slipup if it wasn’t for that Golden State game where the Spurs lost by 30. That was kind of a reality check that they need to come to play every night and that they can’t stop winning and need to try and get home-court advantage in the playoffs. And with both teams motivated the Spurs get a comfortable win in this matchup because they are just a much better team. Cleveland is still working things out and can be inconsistent while the Spurs are a model of consistency and they make things work even with injuries as the system here is more important than any one player. These teams met earlier this month in San Antonio and the Spurs were down big in that game but they put their heads down and dominated the second half. We think they take care of business again tonight.

10 Unit Play. #603 Take St Josephs over Rhode Island (6 pm CBSSN) The Hawks have been a staple for us this season and we expect them to complete the season sweep of the Rams on Saturday in Kingston. St Joes has lost just one game since December 1st and that was a game against VCU in which they controlled throughout only to give it away at the close of the second half. For the most part, the Hawks have been sluggish in the first half before turning on the jets in the second half. They have not had a competitive game since they beat Rhode Island on January 10th. The Rams have lost three of their last five games with their two victories coming against bottom feeder teams in the A-10 (La Salle & Fordham). This team has played the entire season without EC Matthews and that is beginning to take its toll on this team down the stretch. The Rams have already lost a couple of home games this season and hopefully the officials will not let Dan Hurley intimidate them.

St Joes holds a 58-41 lead in the all-time series record and the average margin of victory over the last five games in under 5 points. St Joes is 13-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games overall including going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Rhode Island is 2-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games following a victory. Anything can happen in college basketball, but the wrong team is favored and we will gladly take the field goal with a better more experienced roster. 

Orlando hasn’t been playing well and has lost seven straight. But this team is better than they have been playing. Even with their struggles they are still 23-20-1 ATS on the season and have been one of the best ATS teams in the league for most of the season. Three of the losses during their current losing streak came in overtime, two to pretty good teams in Memphis and Toronto. It didn’t take the bookies long to overadjust their lines for this team and tonight’s line is packed with value. We had this game handicapped at 5 with a strong lean to Orlando at that number, so we love this line above the key NBA betting number of 7. Orlando has had two nights off to regroup and prepare for this game. That is huge for a team that has been struggling like this as they can kind of regroup and readjust their focus. They are also very healthy right now and have dealt with a variety of injuries the last few weeks. We think the Magic match up well here. They have won and covered three of the last four meetings. In the lone meeting this season they won by 19 at home. The one loss during that stretch was by seven in Boston last season. The Magic led that entire game until a poor fourth quarter. We not only think they have a great chance to cover tonight but think they have a decent chance for the straight up win.

Really like the Pacers in this spot. This team is better than it has been playing lately and they catch the Hawks in a bad spot on a back-to-back. The Hawks played a very tough game in a two-point loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. They only managed to score 85 in the very ugly game. Now they have to go on the road for a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Indiana has lost three straight and six of seven, but they have had a very tough schedule lately that has been very road heavy. They are well rested with only one game in the last three nights. They have to be desperate here for a good performance and we think they bring their A Game tonight. Indiana is a very good home team (13-7 this season) while the Hawks are decidedly average on the road (12-12). We think this is a statement game for the Pacers and we think they win this one by 7+.

10 Unit Play. #568 Take Utah over California (11 pm ESPN U) The Utes appear to have righted the ship having won three straight games including a sweep last week of the Washington schools. They have lost just one home game this season and will have revenge on their minds facing a depleted Cal team. The Bears are 6-21 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 games played on Wednesday. Utah is 42-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 62 home games. Utah needs this game and they get it by double digits. 

We think the Clippers are clearly a team to fade right now. This team is in crisis mode because of the Blake Griffin situation with an off-court fight where he broke his hand on the face of a team equipment manager. The team kept this information from the public for a full day, showing what a huge distraction this is. They are on a very tough road trip right now. They barely covered last night against an inconsistent Indiana team. They are now on a back-to-back and facing a much tougher team in Atlanta. The Hawks had the day off yesterday and this team had a tough road trip (they got the split) and they will be happy to be home where they are 15-7 this season. We had this line handicapped at 7.5 so some nice value here. Atlanta has covered in five straight meetings.

10 Unit Play. #520 Take Miami over Duke (7 pm ESPN) Duke still garners a lot of respect from the odds makers but this team is nowhere near as good as they have been in recent years. They are just a jump shooting team without Amile Jefferson and Miami is just a much more talented team. The Hurricanes have had some success against better Duke teams in recent years as well so I do not expect them to be intimidated tonight especially since they are playing at home. Teams are going to take great joy in pounding Duke this season and tonight it is the Hurricanes turn. Duke is 4-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 games played on Monday. Miami is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #311 Take New England Patriots over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) The Patriots are favored on the road for a reason and we fully expect them to take care of business in Denver on Sunday. Denver came back to beat New England in the regular season but most felt that the Patriots got a bad whistle in that game. Denver has a good defense but I am just not sure their offense can make enough plays to win especially in the passing game. People are giving QB Peyton Manning to much credit for winning these last two games against depleted teams. Pittsburgh had a terrible secondary and Denver still did not do much in the passing game. The Patriots laid down during the last few games of the regular season in order to get healthy and we saw the fruits of that decision last week against Kansas City. I believe the Chiefs are a better team at the moment than the Broncos (won in Denver this year) and New England handled them with relative ease. Denver has scored just 1 touchdown in their last 27 drives during the playoffs. Denver is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 playoff games. 

10 Unit Play. #636 Take San Diego State over Utah State (6 pm CBSSN) Really puzzled why this spread is not double digits. San Diego State is clearly the best team in the MWC and expect a better effort today then they gave against Fresno State earlier in the week (The Bulldogs are a better team that the Aggies). The Aztecs have already beaten the Aggies in Logan this season and they have won their three conference home games by an average of 11 points per game. Utah State has three conference victories but none of them have come against good teams (SJSU, Colorado State, Air Force). USU’s only conference loss that was single digits came against SDSU, the other three they lost by 15,18, & 12. With San Diego State it always come down to can they make shots and I feel they will make enough of them today. Utah State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. SDSU is 5-0 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 7 games coming off an ATS loss in their previous game. 

The Clippers have been very dominant in this series, having won six straight, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. And LA has covered in five of those last six meetings. We are getting a very fair line with the visitors here tonight because they come in on a back-to-back after that big game against Cleveland last night. But that game was not “Big” for the Clippers as much as it was a marquee matchup for TV since those teams have no real history. It’s not like LA played the Warriors or Spurs which might have drained more out of them emotionally. This was just another national TV game and we don’t think there will be any letdown here. Plus the Clippers are athletic enough to play well on a back-to-back no problem. LA has had a very light schedule since the new year so they should have plenty of energy here and should be primed to get back on track against a much more inferior team. LA has been playing very well lately and the bookies overestimated Blake Griffin’s injury impact on the line. The Clippers are 9-3 ATS since Griffin went down and they are truly playing their best ball of the season, last night’s game notwithstanding. The Clips have bounced back well lately after a loss as they are 4-0 ATS in games after a loss. We think this line is off, plain and simple, and there is great value with the Clips tonight who we had favored by 7.5 in our handicapping for this matchup.

Really like the way the Pelicans have been playing lately and they are making a charge for the playoffs after a very poor start. But this team has won three of four and the only loss during that stretch was by two in Memphis, so they have four straight quality outings. Think this is a bad spot for the visitors on a back-to-back heading on the road for their third game in four nights. This Detroit team just hasn’t been good with no rest at 3-5 both ATS and SU. They normally tend to struggle to score points in this situation. New Orleans has covered in five of the last six meetings in this series and we think they are undervalued tonight as well as they catch the Pistons in a bad scheduling spot on a road back-to-back.

10 Unit Play. #738 Take Penn State over Wisconsin (8 pm BTN) We have a good feel for this Wisconsin team at the moment hitting plays for and against them and they just do not deserve to be favored by anybody in conference on the road. We saw last night that their win against Michigan State on Sunday was not that impressive since the Spartans just dropped a home game to Nebraska. Wisconsin really has trouble scoring points and seems to go through prolonged droughts each game this season. Throw in the fact that Zak Showalter was in a boot this week (he will play) and expect them to struggle mightily on Thursday. Penn State has had a brutal schedule thus far in conference play with road games at Michigan, Maryland, Purdue, and Northwestern. I am actually impressed that they are 2-4 in Big 10 play. This is the year most of the Big 10 can take it out on Wisconsin, as they have very little talent to go along with an interim coach. It is Penn State’s turn tonight. Wisconsin is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory. Penn State has covered 7 of their last 10 Big 10 games. 

10 Unit Play. #559 Take Colorado State over Air Force (9 pm ROOT Sports) The Falcons are a sinking ship at the moment having been blown out in four straight games. None of those setbacks are against teams that will likely make the NCAA Tournament come March. This team really struggles to score points and that is the one thing Colorado State is good at. The Rams do not play much defense but they should be able to outscore the Falcons to win this game by double digits. Colorado State has a win against UNLV, a team that just beat Air Force by 36 points. The Force is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. 

The Pacers have been inconsistent and they haven’t played well lately, with the culmination of that bad play coming last time out in a 129-126 road loss to Denver. But this has all the looks of a “get right” game against a vastly inferior opponent. Indiana is a good defensive team. After giving up that big point total last time and also 118 to Washington recently this team has been focusing on defense in practice and we feel like they will play a very strong defensive game here against a pretty poor offensive team. This Suns team is middle-of-the-pack offensively for field goal percentage even though they do play a faster pace that has them No. 10 in points per game. But if Indiana really locks down on defense they can hold this Suns team to a really low point total. Phoenix scored only 87 points last time out against Minnesota and they scored only 77 in a recent loss at the Lakers earlier this month. We think the Suns can be held to the low 90s here if Indiana plays defense like we think they can tonight, and that should mean a cover for the visitors and the under.

Another case where a shaky favorite is simply giving up too many points. We think the Nets can keep this one within double digits. These teams met less than two weeks ago in Brooklyn and the Raptors came away with a big win. But with that game coming so recently we just don’t see the nets getting blown out by the same team within two weeks time. This is the NBA and the Nets have the blueprint of what they did wrong in that game and can make adjustments and they won’t shoot as badly as they did in that game and will probably put up way more than 74 points. The Raptors just aren’t a team that covers big lines with regularity and this team is 3-6 ATS at home against losing teams this season. The Nets are 10-4 ATS on the road against winning teams as they often beat inflated lines in these situations.

10 Unit Play. #306 Take Carolina Panthers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1:05 pm FOX) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. I am just not putting all of Seattle’s offensive struggles on the cold weather last week. They played outstanding against Arizona in Week 17 but the two games in the last three weeks they played terrible. Carolina was a perfect 8-0 at home this season (6-2 ATS) and they have the better offensive team on the field. The Panthers were 4-0 against teams with a winning record (4-0 ATS) and Seattle was just 3-4 ATS (1 push) against teams with a winning record. This is a game Carolina and especially their coach and quarterback need to justify their place as one of the top teams in the league. They get it by 7-10 points and we collect big in the process as well. 

10 Unit Play. #668 Take Boise State over San Diego State (10 pm ESPN 2) Always dangerous to go against San Diego State in conference play but this line is way too short considering how well the Broncos have been playing of late. Both teams are undefeated in conference play but this will be the Aztecs third road game in their last four. Boise State has not lost a game since November 29th and they are one of the best offensive teams in the country. If Boise State was to win the MWC this year and be in line for an at-large bid, they need to win this game outright since it is in Idaho. San Diego State is 3-7 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 12 road games. Boise State is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 MWC games. 

Love the Blazers in this spot. Portland is playing some of their best basketball of the season and they have won and covered three straight games. We are getting a small line here because Portland is on the road and on a back-to-back while the Sixers had the night off. But Philly is always overvalued at home. They have as many wins here at home (2) as they do on the road, so there is no real home-court advantage here, and the oddsmakers normally post a small number for their opponents despite that lack of home-court edge. Philly is just 6-11-1 ATS at home this season, despite getting some very favorable lines. They are just 2-6 ATS this season when a dog of less than eight points. Portland comes into this game with a lot of confidence and they are completely healthy. Their defense is better than that of the Sixers and their offense is a lot better, and we just don’t think Philly will be able to keep up on the offensive end.

The Nuggets are coming off their biggest win of the season. This was their Super Bowl and will be the biggest win they will get all season. There is going to be a hangover effect with this young team. We just don’t see this team doing anything special here, and this is the start of what we see as a slide for this team with Indiana and OKC coming up next on the schedule. This is the second-to-last game of a long road trip for Miami. They have lost three straight. One of those games was to Utah on the second of a back-to-back and the other two were against Golden State and LA Clippers. They have excuses for all those games. But they won’t have any excuses tonight if they lose this one. And with the road trip finishing in OKC on Sunday they really need to win this game. They are the much better team in this matchup and the vets on this squad will be no match for the Denver youngsters. Denver is 6-11-1 ATS at home and they have been overrated here all season just like they are tonight.

Neither of these teams is playing as well as they did last season. But the Bucks are way down while the Hawks have slipped only a bit. Milwaukee is just horrible this season after playing so well and being such a strong bet last season. This team can’t score and their defense has been horrible. Their coach has been missing now for awhile because of medical issues and this is a team without an identity or direction. And tonight they face a Hawks team that has just owned them in recent history. The Hawks have won 9 of 10 in this series, including three straight. They have covered in four of the last five meetings overall and in six straight in Milwaukee. Atlanta was beat down last time out against Charlotte in one of their worst results of the season so they should be focused here as a big win would put that game well in the rearview mirror.

Indiana is starting to play a lot better in the new year, winning four of six, and those two losses were tough ones on the road in overtime. Boston is not playing well right now and has lost six of seven, with the only win and cover coming against struggling Brooklyn. So why are the Celtics favored here? Our thoughts exactly. Both of these teams have their issues but the Pacers are the more complete team right now and in a lot better form. They have won and covered in both meetings this season. Indiana is really playing some great defense right now and George has been playing like an All-Star for Indiana. We had the Pacers laying two points here so we think there is some very nice value here with them getting points.

Oklahoma City matches up well here. They have won the last two in this series, both in blowout fashion. They are coming off a loss in Portland and will be primed for a strong bounce-back game here. The Timberwolves are going with a youth movement right now and are playing for the future (and another high draft pick) and they just don’t seem to want to compete now. And the oddsmakers can’t seem to set a line high enough for this team. They are 3-17-1 ATS at home this season. They are 1-7 ATS against winning teams at home. This looks like a very easy win for the visitors tonight as the Thunder are healthy and will play their best game after a loss.

The Jazz are getting healthy again and this is a very strong team when performing at near full capacity. Rudy Gobert is back on the court after missing extended time and he is one of the key players for this defense in the middle. It is evident the Jazz are back to their defensive ways as they held the visiting Miami Heat to 83 points last night. It’s because the Jazz are on a back-to-back is why we are getting such a nice number here. We had Utah -6.5 in our handicapping for this game. Before the big win last night the Jazz had lost three straight. But they played a home-and-home against Houston and also the Spurs on the road during that stretch. The competition level goes way down here with this matchup against the Lakers. We don’t see LA doing much against this Utah defense. Utah shot really well from the field last night and against this Lakers defense we should see that hot shooting continue. Utah has been more than decent in back-to-back situations this season at 4-3 straight up and against the spread. One day of rest has not been kind to the Lakers as they are 4-19 SU and 8-15 ATS. We think the Jazz are primed for a big road win here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:40 pm FOX) The Packers have been in a downward spiral for the last part of this season and I just do not believe that they can put it together on Sunday. By now we all know the problems that this team faces and Washington is at home and riding high after finishing strong to close out the regular season and win the NFC East. The gameplan to beat the Packers has been simple, keep your men close to the line of scrimmage as the Packers are struggling to go over the top. Washington moves onto the second round and we collect in the process as well. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. 

10 Unit Play. #105 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) Both teams have key players on offense that are questionable but regardless I see the Steelers rolling in this game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 15 games in Cincinnati and expect that to hold true again on Saturday. Cincinnati has had no playoff success under Marvin Lewis and if things to do go their way early expect the sideline to become tight and panic will set it. Big Ben put up monster numbers this season passing the football and Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. 

10 Unit Play. #523 Take Maryland over Wisconsin (1 pm ESPN) The Terrapins just have much more talent than does Wisconsin. Maryland is starting to play better coming off back-to-back blowouts and this is a game that they want in a big way. Diamond Stone spurred Wisconsin for Maryland and you can bet he wants to make a statement in this game. Wisconsin played terrible at Indiana yet had a chance to win since Indiana played equally terrible. Maryland is a much better team that Indiana and their coach actually stresses defense unlike the latter. Maryland is 8-1 ATS in their last 8 Big 10 games. Wisconsin is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Badgers already have lost at home to Western Illinois, Milwaukee, Marquette, Purdue and this is the best team they will have played at the Kohl Center this season. 

The Thunder have just dominated this series recently, and we see no reason why tonight will be any different. If these teams were playing in OKC the line would probably be over 20. But we are getting a nice line here because the Thunder are on the road. But this one has blowout written all over it and the Lakers home-court advantage isn’t anything right now as they are 4-10 at home this season. OKC won by 35 points in the last meeting. They won by almost 40 the time before that. They have covered four straight in this series. The Lakers enter on a back-to-back off a very high-scoring and tiring game last night in Sacramento. They gave up 118 to the Kings. You have to think OKC can top that tonight against a tired team. OKC is really dialed in offensively right now. They have been scoring so well that they don’t really need to consistently play strong defense. We see the Thunder doing whatever they want on offense tonight and they should get close to, if not over, 120 and the Lakers will make up the difference for this total in garbage time.

10 Unit Play. #758 Take Louisiana Tech over Old Dominion (9:30 pm CBSSN) I just cannot get out of my head how bad the Monarchs looked against an average Richmond team this season. They have been terrible ATS this season and this line is way too short. The Bulldogs are perfect at home and the Monarchs have yet to win a true road game this season. ODU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. La Tech has covered the spread in 4 straight home games. 71% of the action in on Louisiana Tech and it is for good reason as this line opened as a pick.

Best of Luck - Doc’s Sports

Boston is 10-5 ATS this season on the road. They are normally underrated away from home. They have lost three of their last four games, including head-scratching home losses to the Lakers and Nets. But this is a solid team and well-coached, and they will probably bring their A Game here. The Bulls have been playing better lately, but this team has been a lousy bet most of the season at home and as a favorite. They are 8-12 ATS at home this season. And that is after some recent success has pumped up that number. This team is 4-12 ATS when laying between 3 and 10 points, and they are just overrated right now. Derrick Rose should play tonight. But he has been inconsistent this season and sometimes hurts the team more than helps it. And it is always rolling the dice to expect him to make it through 48 minutes in one piece. Boston is a very live dog tonight and we think this will be a close game that the visitors can win.

Last season when Chris Paul went out with an injury this Clippers team started to play better after a slow start. They had a slow start this season as well, and then Blake Griffin went down with an injury and is missing extended time. Now they are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Sometimes it just takes an injury like this for the team to come together. They have covered in five straight games. They recently won five straight on the road. Their defense is finally coming around and their offense is clicking as well. Besides Griffin the Clippers are pretty healthy right now and they are dialed in and the oddsmakers have still overreacted to Griffin’s injury as we think this line should be closer to 7.5 and expect the Clippers to get a pretty comfortable road win here tonight against an overmatched team.

10 Unit Play. #580 Take Fresno State over Nevada (10 pm the MWC) This game just has a lot of similarities to our selection last week with New Mexico fading Nevada. As previously mentioned, the Pack had AJ West quit the team in December and that leaves a major void that they have been unable to fill. Nevada has been pounded in their last two road games and were lucky to survive on Saturday against a one-man team in Wyoming. The Bulldogs have not always played to their potential this season but they have a ton of talent and already have a victory in Las Vegas on their resume. They had a bad taste in their month losing to New Mexico and that makes this game important to them. Nevada is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Fresno State is 23-11 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 37 games following a loss in their previous game. 

The Kings are coming in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. This is a bad spot for Sacramento. They beat OKC on the road last night. This isn’t the type of team that will use that victory for forward momentum but instead they will probably be patting themselves on the back and turn in an ugly performance here. Dallas will have a lot of motivation here after two straight losses. This will be the return of Rajon Rondo to Dallas and word on the street is that he was not very popular in the locker room so that gives the Mavs some extra motivation here just like when DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers came to town. Dallas has dominated this series and is 21-3 SU in the last 24 meetings. Dallas normally gets the job done at home against inferior teams and we think that will be the case again here tonight.

Love the Celtics in this spot and think they will get a double-digit win here on the road against the demoralized Nets. Brooklyn lost PG Jarrett Jack for the season recently and this team was already pretty thin to begin with. This has to be a big hit for this team and they will have to figure out a Plan B. He is not a household name by any means but he brings so much to this team and all the numbers tell the story that this team is much worse with him sidelined. Revenge does not play a huge role in NBA handicapping but when teams played recently it can be huge, and the Nets got an unlikely win in Boston on Saturday. Boston will make the necessary adjustments and earn a huge road win here.

10 Unit Play. #315 Take Oakland Raiders over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) I believe a little wind was taken out the Chiefs sails when Cincinnati blew a big lead against Denver on Monday Night Football. Now they face a divisional team with some injuries on defense playing a team with extra rest (Oakland played on Thursday last week). The Raiders have a chance to finish the season 8-8 and they have a winning record on the road. In the first game, Oakland was in control before turnovers proved costly in the fourth quarter. This is the final game of Charles Woodson’s career and I believe Oakland takes this game down to the wire. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. 

Atlanta is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now having won seven of their last eight games. They have covered in six of those contests, so they are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. We definitely expected this line to be around 7 today and would have leaned to Atlanta even at that number. The Knicks played well at the start of the season but they have come down to Earth a bit and just have not looked good lately. They are 1-5 in their last six games. The Hawks have won by double digits in the last two meetings and they have covered in five of the last six.

7 Unit Play. #537 Take St. Josephs +3.5 over Richmond (12:30 pm NBCSN) Both of these teams run a grind it out system and thus I expect this game to go right down to the wire and feel we have a great chance to cash even if the Hawks do not win straight-up. St. Josephs is 10-2 on the season with their only losses coming against Villanova and Florida. Richmond may be without ShawnDre’ Jones and that will affect the Spiders if he is not 100%. The Hawks have beaten the Spiders 15 of the 23 match-ups. St. Josephs has covered the spread in their last 7 games (1 push). 

The Bulls are one of the worst betting teams both at home and laying points this season. They are just 6-12 ATS at home thus far (Knicks are 11-6 ATS on the road) and this looks like another line that is too large on Friday night. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. They are 4-13 ATS when laying three or more points this season. They are also banged up right now and this team continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. We like the Knicks to keep this one close on Friday and a straight up win would not be shocking. New York is well rested and a live dog tonight.

Orlando always plays well in this series. They have covered in five of the last six meetings, including a 23-point win in Brooklyn earlier this month. At 21-9-1 ATS the Magic have been a covering machine, and they are still underrated by the oddsmakers as we had this line at -10. Brooklyn has been a team that covers a lot on the road when they are getting a ton of points, but Orlando has been even better ATS at home and they continue to receive short lines from the oddsmakers. This team is young, talented and hungry and they continue to get the job done on a nightly basis and rarely have an off night. We think there is a great chance that they win this one by double-digits.

Detroit has won four of the last five meetings in this series and the one loss was in overtime. We expect them to play very well here tonight. The Pistons have lost two straight but they played pretty well against both teams, and the opponents were Boston and Atlanta so neither of those were bad losses in our eyes. But before that they covered five of six with one push so this is a team that is still underrated. The Knicks started off the season playing well but they were probably playing a bit above their heads. They enter this one having lost four straight, Two of those were major blowouts and the other two were by 8 and 9 points. This team is just not in good form right now and we think this price is a bargain for a Detroit team that is the better club and has played well in this matchup in recent meetings.

Brooklyn has been a very good ATS team this season and we think they are getting a very fair line here on Monday. Miami was off on Sunday but they played a back-to-back on Christmas and Saturday so this will be their third game in four nights. Fatigue should be more of a factor for them than Brooklyn. The Heat are a good defensive team but they normally don’t score a lot, and they have had trouble covering big numbers with a 1-4 ATS record against lines 7 points or higher. Brooklyn has generally been very good as a decent underdog, especially on the road against winning teams where they are 7-2 ATS. We think they are getting a few too many points tonight.

It’s clear now that the Grizzlies are not the same team this season as the squad we have seen in the past. This team has never been good at covering big spreads even in their heyday and they are just 1-5 ATS when laying five points or more this season. The Grizzlies are on a back-to-back here while the Lakers are one of the rare teams that did not play on Saturday’s full NBA schedule. The Grizzlies offense is very poor this season and we think they will have a lot of trouble scoring enough to cover this big number, especially on a back-to-back, and the Lakers have shown some spark lately in covering in two of their last three games.

San Antonio always seems to play well in this series as they have collected the cash in five of the last seven games despite facing some hefty lines. The reason we like the Spurs so much tonight is because they lost yesterday to the Rockets and this team just doesn’t go through losing streaks. This is probably the best bounce-back team in the league as they are 12-1 ATS after a straight up loss. They had a rare off game on Christmas in a loss to the Rockets. This team should bounce back strong and take care of business against a very bad Nuggets team, one that should be without one of their best players in Danilo Gallinari. The Spurs excel as a big favorite better than any team in the league along with Golden State. This team is 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more. Seven points or more is the spread point where most teams really struggle but the Spurs are a very focused team and one that does not take it easy on weak opponents and they play like they are down 10 late in the game when they are up by 10+ and that is why you can avoid the back door cover when backing them as a big favorite like in this spot tonight.

10 Unit Play. #231 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Duke Blue Devils (Pinstripe Bowl, Saturday, 12/26 3:30 pm ABC) Nothing better than watching a football game in a baseball stadium but that will be the case today when the Hoosiers invade the Big Apple. Indiana has a very shaky defense but a good offense that can put up points. But this play is more about going against Duke, as they have yet to recover from their loss to Miami that featured some bad calls by the officials. The Blue Devils would go on to lose their next three games and only beat Wake Forest by six points in their season finale. Duke gave up over 350 yards per game passing in their last four games and expect the Hoosiers to move up and down the football field. Duke has lost three straight bowl games and actually has not won a bowl game since 1961. Indiana finished the season strong with two blowout wins and was very competitive with Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan. Indiana played a very difficult schedule and thus their 6-6 record does not look that bad. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. 

Memphis has failed to cover the last three meetings in this series. The Grizzlies were not good at covering big lines like this in their heyday, but this team is way down this year from the level of success that we are used to. This team does not have an identity right now and they are trying to go smaller when they have had most of their success because of their size and playing physical defense. Philly has failed to cover in a bunch of consecutive games. But the NBA is never as easy as just fading a team like this every game. After a certain point the lines get too big, and we feel that is the case tonight. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS when laying five or more points this season. We don’t think they will take this game too seriously, especially with Washington on deck on Wednesday.

The Rockets are just overrated this season and they have been one of the many disappointing teams in the Western Conference this season. They sit at 11-17 ATS and we think the Hornets have a great chance to score the road win here tonight. Charlotte has been playing better overall this season and we think they have a great chance to score the road win tonight. This Hornets team has played great as a small underdog and they always seem to give their all in a situation like this one tonight. They are 7-1 ATS as a underdog of less than five points. Houston is 5-10 ATS in home games this season and they are overvalued once again tonight. The Magic match up well here and we expect a strong game from them tonight.

10 Unit Play. #522 Take Fresno State over Evansville (4 pm) The Bulldogs return a ton of talent from last season and I expect them to be able to make some noise in a wide open MWC this season. They are a perfect 7-0 this season at the Save Mart Center and should have no problem taking out this mid-major in the Purple Aces. This is the tough trip for Evansville and they do not match up well with the Bulldogs. Evansville is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Sunday. 

Have to think this is a real revenge spot for the Clippers after their playoff collapse last season that sent Houston to the Western Conference Finals. We heard some handicappers claiming that last night’s game was big for the Clips. We think that team considers San Antonio a stronger team but they think, rightfully so, they are better than the Rockets and we see this as a much bigger spot for LA than last night. And both teams have had problems to start the season but we feel like the Rockets problems run a lot deeper than those of LA and we just think this Clippers team is poised for a big game here. They match up well at several positions on the floor and we had this line handicapped at -4 for the road team so we think there is nice value here.

10 Unit Play. #537 Take Santa Clara over Nevada (10 pm) The Wolf Pack just had their best player from last season quit the team this week and that is a major void that will take some time to overcome. AJ West was a great rebounder and even though he had a diminished role this season, it leaves their front court vulnerable. The Broncos have played better basketball of late winning four straight games and one must remember that they did take Arizona to the wire last month. Nevada is 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 

Detroit has been playing very well and they are very much under the radar right now. Chicago is taking a big public lean in this one but we think the Pistons are the sharp play here. Detroit has won three of four, with their only loss coming in OT against the suddenly-hot Clippers. They have won seven of their last 10 games overall. Chicago has won four straight. But that doesn’t impress us all that much as all four were at home and one game was against Philly. Two other games were against Memphis and New Orleans teams that are down this season from what we are used to. But this team is just 5-9 ATS at home this season. They are just 4-10 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. These games in this series are almost always close. Detroit has won three of the last four meetings. They have covered four straight in the series and five of the last six in Chicago. We just think the Bulls are a team to fade at home as they aren’t good enough to blow good teams out and they are overrated by the oddsmakers right now. We think the visitors have a great chance for the straight up win here.