Sports Picks & Predictions

These teams have very different records, but you can really throw all those out the window here when handicapping this game as the Pistons have been playing as well as anyone not named the Hawks in the Eastern Conference lately. This team has always had the talent, but they have finally put things together mentally and this is a team that is probably going to have betting value all season long. They have a lousy public perception because they have stunk for several years, they have a bad record after a slow start, and they have no big-name players that bettors can get behind. That is a recipe for a strong ATS team. And we think this is a team that is going to give a solid effort on a night-to-night basis. Toronto is just not in great form lately. They have dropped four of five and covered only one of those games, a win here against Boston last time out. We think with recent form added to the equation that this line should be closer to three, so there is some very nice value here on Monday.

Love the Wizards here on Sunday afternoon as we expect a close and hard-fought game. Atlanta is the hotter team right now for sure, but we don’t think that these teams are that far apart as far as total talent and ceiling, and we think the Wiz Kids have a very good chance to win this game straight out. No matter what, we think they will be as motivated for this game as any all season and should bring their A-Game here. The Wizards have won three straight and have looked very impressive doing it, so they are hot as well, and this line here is more than the standard home-court advantage, which provides some nice value in our eyes. And the Wizards have done well in this series of late as they have either won or been within four points in the last six meetings, four of which they have covered. This one should go down to the final seconds and we think the underdog is the sharp play here.

Think this is a great spot for the home team. This team has not been playing great overall, but they were one of the top teams betting-wise at the start of the season, and we see no reason they can’t get back to that point and start playing better basketball overall. That certainly looks like it could be the case now as this team just throttled the OKC Thunder by 20+ last time out on Wednesday in this same building. That kind of effort can be contagious, and we stated the other night in our writeup about the Pistons that sometimes confidence is the most important facet for a team’s success. We think the Kings will come out in this one very confident not only because of that win over the Thunder but also for the fact that they have owned the Nuggets lately and have won and covered three straight in the series. Two of those wins were this season, and the most recent was a 20+-point drubbing here in this building at the start of the season. The Nuggets probably just went into tank mode as they traded a key rotation piece in Timofey Mozgov for future draft picks, and when similar trades like this have gone down in the past you can normally expect a lackluster result from the team that gave up the player as why should the players play hard if management is not giving them the best tools to win games? All signs point to a comfortable Kings win here.

The Raptors have lost three straight and have covered in only two of their last six. They are coming off a real tough road trip but should not be laying this many points here tonight as we think that this line is about three points too large. The Hornets have won and covered three straight and are playing with some confidence right now. The loss of Al Jefferson hurts this team, but they have been playing a lot better overall than they did at the start of the season. And we see this as a competitive game. Teams often struggle in their first game back from a long road trip, so we have that working in our favor tonight. Also, the Hornets have been playing pretty good defense lately, and if they can slow down this Toronto offense they can have a chance to win this game. The Hornets have played really well in this series and have won and covered in four straight meetings. They are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Toronto and 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings overall.

4 Unit Play. #792 Take UNLV over Nevada (11 pm CBSSN) The Rebels lost to the Wolf Pack twice last season and thus you can be sure they will not take this in-state battle lightly. Vegas has been playing outstanding basketball of late including an upset victory of Kansas and Nevada has yet to win on the road this season. UNLV leads the series by a 56-21 margin and despite losing both games last year they have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

10 Unit Play. #532 Take Minnesota over Ohio State (9 pm ESPN) The last big play we used was fading Ohio State and we will go to the well once again on Tuesday night. We used North Carolina in a neutral site win over Ohio State and they controlled the game from start of to finish and that is how I see this game going as well. We saw last night that North Carolina is not powerhouse with already two home losses on the season. Ohio State is a fraud and played one of the weakest nonconference home heavy schedules in the country. In their two step out games they were dominated by Louisville and North Carolina although the final score may not have indicated that, but trust me they were. They did pull away from Illinois in their last game but that was at home and one of my colleagues said he would go huge in there would have been a rematch in Champaign aginast Illinois. Minnesota is very similar to Illinois and I expect this young Buckeye team to struggle for 40 minutes at the Barn tonight. This is an important game for the Gophers to right the ship and keep their hopes on an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament alive come March. They have the size to match-up with Amir Williams and I believe Andre Hollins in due for a breakout game. Ohio State is 0-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 17 games played on Tuesday. Finally an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team is always a good sign!

The Suns are one of the best betting teams on the road at 12-7-1 ATS on the season, and we think they get a comfortable win here on the road tonight against this Bucks team that is the walking wounded right now. Milwaukee has several key players out or questionable here, and there is also an illness that is spreading around on the team. That does not bode well for them against a Suns team that is completely healthy and one of the hottest teams in the league having won 8 of their last 10 games. Just think this is a really bad spot for the Bucks against a very hot team, and because the Suns are on the road we are getting a line that is very beatable tonight. Phoenix normally plays well here in Milwaukee and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. We had this game handicapped at 8, so we think there is some great line value here tonight, and a double-digit win would not surprise us at all!

Both teams have been plagued with injuries this season, but the Nuggets are just a much better team than this Timberwolves club right now, and we expect them to win this one pretty comfortably tonight. We took a shot on Minnesota last time out in this same building against the banged-up Jazz, and Utah rolled to a blowout win. This Denver team is better than Utah, and we expect a similar result here. These teams met the day after Christmas in Denver and the Nuggets got the win but did not cover. But they shot pretty lousy in that game, and we think with that game being so recent that the Nuggets can make adjustments and do even better here against a familiar opponent. Denver is also 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota and also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. We think the road team gets a comfortable win here.

10 Unit Play. #736 Take Northeastern over UNC Wilmington (7 pm) The Huskies have a veteran team and they are ready for some home cooking as they have not played in Boston in over a month. They are a perfect 3-0 at home this season and they are playing a team that has gotten blown out four straight games. Northeastern has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Scott Eatherton and company pull away late and win this game by 20 points. 

10 Unit Play. #855 Take Wisconsin over Northwestern (8:30 pm BTN) Wisconsin seems to play Northwestern better in Evanston than they do in Madison. Wisconsin has won 12 of the 14 match-ups and that included a 76-49 victory in Chicago last season. Northwestern would go on to be Wisconsin in Madison and that will just provide motivation for this game. The Wildcats do not have a quality victory from their 10 wins this season and Wisconsin is just not a good match-up for them. Wisconsin has a better play at every position on the court and they are going to light it up from the field in this game. Wisconsin has covered 7 of their last 10 road games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Detroit is finally playing to its potential and has won four straight, all in blowout fashion, and covered in all of those games. Ever since they got rid of Josh Smith this team has played with a spark for the first time all season, and this team certainly has some talent. The Kings have been a big disappointment lately and just haven’t played well since DeMarcus Cousins went down with injury earlier in the season, and even though we expected them to play better once he returned, that just has not happened. This team hasn’t covered a line since early December, and that was 11 games ago! (two pushes in that stretch). Just have to go with the team in better form here. The Pistons seem to be playing with a purpose while the Kings really look lost and hopeless right now. Detroit has also won three straight in this series and covered in six of the last seven meetings.

10 Unit Play. #108 Take Indianapolis Colts over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bengals have not had any success in the playoffs under the tenure of Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have lost in this round the last three years and this will be their third road games in the last four weeks. Indianapolis dominated this regular season match-up winning 27-0 as a 3.5 favorite similar to what we see in this game. WR AJ Green got hurt and lost the game last week against Pittsburgh and I just do not believe that the Bengals have much left in the tank. QB Andy Dalton has a 1-6 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. The Colts win and march onto Denver for another rematch with Peyton Manning. Indianapolis is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 home games. 

This Portland team is really on an upswing. They have won and covered four straight and six of seven, and we think they get a relatively easy win here tonight. This is their first game of the new year, so they are well rested and should be very focused tonight while the Hawks come in on a back-to-back after winning in Utah last night. Atlanta has been playing very well lately also, but this is a bad spot for them. The Blazers have owned Atlanta in recent meetings, winning the last three games all by double digits. Portland always seems to do well at home against top competition and they are 7-2 ATS against winning teams here this season. We think this fresh squad gets the job done tonight here at home and think another double-digit win is not out of the question. The Hawks looked tired there in the fourth quarter against Utah last night and we think that fatigue could carry over here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #586 Take Georgetown over Creighton (4:30 pm FS1) Georgetown is good and will be able to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Creighton is in a complete rebuild and this is their second straight road game to open up Big East play. The Bluejays will be a tough out in Omaha but they will struggle to stay competitive on the road and this is a game Georgetown needs after losing to Xavier on Wednesday. Creighton is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Georgetown is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. 

Love the Warriors in this spot. This team is well rested as their only game in the last few days was that contest against Philly that was basically 3-point shooting practice, and we think that Golden State will be hot here. The Warriors are better on both sides of the ball, and the Raptors are at the point in this extended road trip where they are probably due for a down game after three pretty solid efforts in their last few games. But with only one game played in the last five nights we expect an energized effort from the home team tonight, and we think the Warriors match up well here. These teams don’t meet often, but the Bay Area has been horrible for Toronto when they do travel out here as they are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings here. We think this line is way too short and we had the Warriors handicapped at -7.5 in this game.

10 Unit Play. #269 Take UCLA Bruins over Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl, Friday January 2nd 6:45 pm ESPN) Bowl Game of the Year. The talent edge in this game greatly favors the Bruins in this game. Kansas State is a very well coached team and they do not beat themselves but that does not get it done when playing top tier teams. UCLA dominated in their bowl game last year and that is how I see this game going as well. This will be the last game for QB Brett Hundley and I expect him to go out with a bang. The Wildcats finished 9-3 on the season but all three of those losses came against teams that had better talent than they did. They lost by double digits to Baylor and TCU and we have now found out that beating Oklahoma is not that impressive. Kansas State gave up 553 yards to TCU and 584 yards to Baylor and most of their impressive defensive numbers came against lesser teams. Despite laying an egg in their last game against Stanford, UCLA had won five straight games and righted the ship in a big way after back to back losses at home. I just do not believe Kansas State has the playmakers to threaten this UCLA defense and feel the Bruins will pull away in the second half and win this game comfortably. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. UCLA is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double digit loss at home. 

Love the Thunder in this spot. OKC will get a big boost here tonight with the likely return of Kevin Durant. They have had two nights off and will be well rested and primed for a huge game here. The Suns come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game in New Orleans last night. This will be their third game in four nights, and we think they will be really fatigued here. The Thunder have lost three of their last five and need every win they can get when at full strength, so we feel like they will really bring their A Game here tonight. OKC has covered four of the last five meetings at home in this series, and with the Suns hectic recent schedule we think this is a game they could likely not show up for at all and we think there is a great chance for a Thunder double-digit blowout.

Really love the way the Pistons have been playing since they got rid of Josh Smith. This team has won two straight in dominating fashion and destroyed Cleveland on the road last time out. We think this is a very good spot for them tonight. The Magic are coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game in Miami last night. One of the biggest reasons we like this play is that we think the Pistons have a big motivational edge here as Van Gundy will be returning to the team that let him go, and we think the players will bring their A Game here tonight to play for their coach. This Detroit team is finally playing to its potential after a slow start to the season. Orlando has been overachieving a bit. But the talent level on the Pistons is better, and we think they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. The sharp bettors pounded this line overnight as the Pistons were originally a small underdog. But we think there is still plenty of value here in a game that the Pistons should dominate against a weary Orlando club.

10 Unit Play. #542 Take Akron over Marshall (7 pm) The Thundering Herd have a new coach and a new system this season and they are a terrible defensive team. That has been a D’Antino tradition wherever they coach and tonight will be no different. Marshall has just two wins against Division 1 teams this season and those wins are against Jacksonville State and Savannah State. They are 0-3 in true road games including getting blown out against a terrible Nevada team in their last outing. Akron is always a tough out at home and they will once again be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Akron is 5-0 at home this season and only one of those five victories have come under tonight’s posted number. Marshall is 8-22 ATS (1 push) in their last 31 nonconference games. Akron is 24-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 36 games played on Tuesday.  

We think the wrong team is favored here. These teams have similar records, but the Kings play in the Western Conference where they have earned their wins against tougher opponents. We think Sacramento is the better overall club here and expect them to get this win on the road. This Nets club is a real dysfunctional group this year. They should be a lot better than they have been and have been underachieving big time. The Kings have struggled a bit but you can attribute that more to off-the-court situations like DeMarcus Cousins’ bizarre health issues and some upper management disagreements. But this team started off the season as one of the best teams in the league against the spread before Cousins got hurt and we think they can get back to that level of play and start covering a lot of games. And this one certainly qualifies as we had the Kings handicapped as three-point favorites in this one. We really love taking a small line on an underdog when we had that team favored. The Kings have certainly done their best work on the road where they are 8-4 ATS this season (4-1 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record). The Nets are just 6-9 ATS at home this season where the bookies routinely have them overrated.

We think that the Pistons are trending upwards right now and were on them last time out when they played one of their best games of the season in a home win over Indiana. Getting rid of Josh Smith sent a message to the other players on this team that slacking will not be tolerated, and we expect to see a better effort from this team moving forward. This squad certainly has some talent as well as solid coaching. Cleveland could be without point guard Kyrie Irving for this one. They have also not been very good as a big favorite like this. This team is 3-5 ATS when giving nine or more points this season and also 3-5 ATS when playing sub-.500 teams at home. The Pistons are also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland. Although this is a different Cavs team than we have known in the past, certain teams get up to play certain opponents no matter whom the personnel. We expect a solid effort from the visitors here this afternoon.

I think that the New York Giants have all the motivation here. The players seem to love Tom Coughlin, and they may be fighting for his job here. We think they go all out to win this one and win it big against a team that has been overhyped all season and is playing some of its worst football here down the stretch. The Giants have won three straight and covered in all those games. The Eagles have lost their last three without a single cover. With the extra motivation for playing for their coach and the absolute lack of motivation we have seen from the Eagles here down the stretch we think this line should be over the key NFL number of three and that the Giants are the clear play here.

The Spurs have just not been playing well lately and enter here on a back-to-back against a really tough Pelicans team, and we think this is a really bad spot for the Spurs. The Pelicans are well rested here as they have had two nights off and have played only one game in the last four nights. The Spurs had a tough loss at home against the Thunder (without Durant) yesterday and we expect the Pelicans to earn a pretty comfortable win here in a game they will probably be really jacked up to play. San Antonio is normally one of the best ATS teams in the league, but they have a losing record this season and the team is obviously biding its time until the playoffs when they will probably shift it into high gear. But we think the Pelicans will be very hungry for a win against the defending champs here at home tonight. The Spurs normally don’t play their best here in New Orleans and are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.

These are two teams going in the opposite direction, and we think that this line is too short here tonight. The Pacers have only two wins to show for their last 12 efforts, and those were against the Lakers and T-Wolves, two of the worst teams in the league. The Pelicans have been playing excellent basketball, and they have the best player on the court here by far in future MVP Anthony Davis. They have been playing well on the road where they have won four straight, including wins over likely playoff teams in OKC, Dallas and Houston. They are 4-1 ATS this season against teams with a losing record, so they take care of business on the road against teams that should beat (the Pacers are 1-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning record). Also the west is so much better than the east this season that the competition these teams play on a nightly basis mean their records are skewed (the Pelicans are probably better than their record indicates while the Pacers are worse).  We expect a big win from New Orleans here.

10 Unit Play. #547 Take Marshall over Nevada (10 pm the MWC) Nevada is not any good and they should not be laying points to anybody. The Wolf Pack has lost 8 straight games including a home game to Cal State Fullerton. The Thundering Herd are not any good either but they have played a much more difficult schedule and they are a much better offensive team than is Nevada. Wolf Pack Big Man AJ West did not play in their last game against Pacific and he will not be 100% for this game and that leaves a major void in the paint. Nevada is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Marshall is 7-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. 

The Kings are a team we think is going to be a good bet here for awhile. This team was one of the best bets in the NBA at the start of the season and was 10-5 ATS before DeMarcus Cousins for sidelined because of a virus. They have been pretty bad ever since, but Cousins is back, and after a pretty good outing last time in his first game back we expect an even better game from him here tonight. Confidence is low in this team right now, but we think they can get back that spark they had at the beginning of the season. The Kings are close to full strength now, and when healthy this team is a much better ballclub than the Lakers. The Kings have lost five straight, including one to these Lakers in LA that makes this a nice revenge spot, and we think with Cousins back in the mix in his second game after getting the cobwebs out that this is a nice spot for a big Kings win.

We expect the Nuggets to win a high-scoring game here. Denver is coming in on a back-to-back, but this team is athletic and should be flying high after a straight up underdog win last night over the LA Clippers. We definitely think this Denver team is underrated, and it has dealt with a lot of injuries this season that have stifled any long winning streaks. But this team has a pretty favorable schedule coming up, and this team is like a stock that we want to “buy low” on right now. The Nuggets at least have a lot more upside than the Pacers, who have only a win over the Lakers to their credit in their last 10 games. They have covered only four of those games despite getting some very favorable lines. Just think Denver rolls here and a double-digit win would not surprise us.

10 Unit Play. #106 Take Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm NFL Network) The Redskins actually showed some heart last week against the Giants and a tough break right before halftime did them in and ejected some key players. Expect RG3 to be under center for this game and he moved the football well last week and should be able to put up some points and yardage in this game as well. Philadelphia is in a major letdown situation coming off their debacle last week at home against Dallas. Turnovers did them in and expect them to put the ball on the ground a few times in this game as well. Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. 

10 Unit Play. #526 Take North Carolina over Ohio State (1 pm CBS) This is an important game for both teams but I feel the veteran and experience of North Carolina will pay dividends in the second half. Ohio State has been blowing people at home but their competition has been ridiculously bad. Not one of their nine victories have come against teams that will make the NCAA Tournament this season. This is the type of schedule you create when you have a young team and this is exactly the case with Ohio State. Ohio State did not perform well against Louisville and I do not see them being able to stay with a veteran team like the Tar Heels. North Carolina already has three losses but they have played a much more difficult schedule thus far. This is not a great shooting team but they really get after it on the boards averaging 44.3 rebounds per game (4th in the country). Carolina has been playing better of late with blowouts in two of their last three games and a respectable showing at Kentucky (14 point loss), the No. 1 team in the country. Carolina is doing this despite poor shooting from Marcus Paige, their best player. He is due for a breakout game and expect it to occur today in the Windy City. North Carolina leads the series 10-2 and have won five straight since losing 80-73 in a 1992 NCAA regional semifinal. Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Ohio State and their cupcake schedule gets exposed today. 

10 Unit Play. #202 Take Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns over Nevada Wolf Pack (New Orleans Bowl, Saturday 11 am ESPN) This is a major home field edge for the Ragin’ Cajuns as they are playing in New Orleans for a fourth straight year and look to complete the Superfecta on Saturday with four straight wins. Nevada players are happy to be in New Orleans, but the fan base will not be able to support them as the team had just 13 days and fans have bought just over 100 tickets. Nevada has been a slow starting team all season long and have not played well down the stretch losing two of their last three games against so-so teams in Air Force, UNLV, and Fresno State. Nevada could have lost to UNLV as well were it not for the Vegas quarterback falling apart in the second half despite having a lead at halftime. Nevada has not seen a quarterback as good as Terrance Broadway since October 11th and he should be able to pick apart this suspect Wolf Pack defense. Louisiana has only lost 1 game since September 21st and they will enter this game with a lot of confidence. This is a dual threat team and I expect them to move the ball up and down the field for 60 minutes. Nevada is a penny pinching team and thus their bowl experience will not be enjoyable as most team get to experience. The Pack have lost two straight bowl games and just do not have the weapons at wide receiver to exploit ULL. Nevada is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 bowl games. ULL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during December. 

Just love this line tonight and think the Kings roll here. They are expected to get DeMarcus Cousins back tonight, and he is really the glue that binds this club. They were playing like a playoff contender in the ultra-competitive Western Conference until he went down for a bunch of games, and we think they will get a big boost from his return tonight. We expect a double-digit win here. The Bucks are coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-played loss against the Blazers. They really let down in the fourth quarter of that game, and we expect that to carry over into this one as the team seemed to lose its fight. The Bucks have been giving up 104+ in back-to-backs this season on defense, and we think the Kings try and push the pace tonight and expect them to put up a big team total. We don’t see this fatigued Bucks team keeping up here, and there is very nice value on the Kings tonight.

10 Unit Play. #745 Take Northeastern over Cal Poly (10 pm) This game is in Santa Clara and not on the Mustangs home floor and thus I expect the Huskies to be able to take care of business tonight. This is a brutal road trip for Northeastern and this is their best chance to win one of these three games in California. The Mustangs have some terrible losses this season against Nevada and Fresno State and that just will not get the job done. Northeastern returns a solid core from last season and expect them to pull away late and win this game by double digits. Cal Poly is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory in their previous game.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports. 

Can’t take anything away from the Warriors for what they have done here during this long winning streak as this is a very good team. But now they have the biggest bullseye on their back every night, and we expect the streak to come to a screeching halt here tonight in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 11-1 at home this season, and they will give their best effort tonight. Last time out Golden State needed OT to dispatch the Pelicans on the road, and this Memphis team is much better than that New Orleans squad. And while the Warriors winning streak is undoubtedly impressive, there are only a few quality wins during that stretch and most of the games came against pretty questionable competition. We would say this is their toughest road game during the current streak. Memphis is 5-2 ATS as a small favorite like this so far this season, and they have also covered in five of the last seven meetings.

10 Unit Play. #331 Take Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) This is a must win game for the Cowboys if they have any visions of winning the NFC East and I believe they will put forth a good effort coming off a mini bye since they played last Thursday. Dallas has played much better on the road this season going 6-0 and the visitor has been the play in this series covering the spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings. I am still not a big believer in Mark Sanchez and the Seahawks provided a blueprint last Sunday as to how to shut him down. Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. 

Revenge does not play much of a role in NBA handicapping – these guys are professionals, after all, and with the long grind of the NBA season players don’t normally dwell on losses. However, when teams play a back-to-back, home-and-home on consecutive nights, revenge is a big factor since the loss is still fresh on the players’ minds. And that is what we have here tonight as the Magic lost in Atlanta last night by 6. We expect a much stronger effort from them here at home tonight, and we think they have a great chance to win this game straight up. Orlando played a pretty strong game last night for three quarters, and they were tied entering the fourth. Orlando’s biggest lead was 12 in that game (Atlanta’s biggest was only 8). Orlando will also likely have their best player back tonight as Nikola Vucevic has been out a few games, including last night’s loss, and he is expected to return here. Orlando always seems to play well in this series, and they have covered in four straight meetings and five of six. We think the Hawk’s winning streak is in real jeopardy tonight.

10 Unit Play. #602 Take Stanford over Denver (6 pm PAC-12 Network) Denver has never been a good road team under Joe Scott and most of their magic at home has also deteriorated in recent years. Denver allowed Northern Iowa to shot 70% in their last game and lost it by double digits. Stanford has more size than do the Panthers and thus I expect a high shooting percentage from them on Saturday night. The Pioneers four victories have come against New Orleans, Texas A & M CC, Idaho State, and Coppin State. Stanford has been off for close to two weeks against an embarrassing performance against DePaul and expect them to take out their frustrations on Denver in a big way tonight. Denver is 1-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against PAC-12 teams. Stanford is 9-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 nonconference games. 

This line has moved up since LeBron James was downgraded to questionable, and we have to think he plays here in this marquee matchup on TNT. He can rest tomorrow in an easier game against New Orleans. Even if LeBron does miss this game we still think that this will be a competitive game as the Cavs still have a lot of weapons without LeBron. Yes, the Thunder have Durant and Westbrook back in the mix and have won three of four since his return, but look at the teams they have beaten: Philadelphia, Detroit (by only two) and Milwaukee. That just doesn’t convince us that this team is back yet. We certainly don’t think they are in top form right now, and they face an incredibly tough matchup tonight against a team that is playing in really good form right now. Cleveland has won eight straight and covered five of those lines. Those included wins over likely playoff teams Toronto (twice) and Washington. This team has been a dog only twice this season, and they won both games. The Cavs are finally gelling together and playing to their potential, while this OKC team can’t just insert Durant and Westbrook back in the mix and immediately start playing at a championship level. It takes some time to get these players back to playing at a top level with their team, and we think this is too stiff of a test tonight as we expect a real close game here on TNT Thursday. If LeBron plays this line is a gift.

10 Unit Play. #546 Take California over Wyoming (11 pm PAC 12 Network) I have been a fan of this Cal team all season long and despite their poor showing on Sunday (they did cover the spread) expect a much better effort at home tonight. Wyoming is 8-1 on the season but they are 0-1 on the road and only 1 of their 8 home games came against a decent team in Colorado (The Buffaloes are a borderline tournament team). Wyoming lost by 13 points to SMU on the road and I believe Cal is a better team than SMU. Larry Nance is a player but Cal has Tyrone Wallace who lit it up in the second half against Nevada. Cal is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games overall. Wyoming is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. 

The Clippers are 7-2 on the road this season, and their recent long road trip was extremely successful as they went 6-1 straight up and covered five of seven spreads. We don’t see a letdown here for LA since they started the season off slow and know that every game is uber-important since the west is even more competitive this season than in years past. At 15-5 this Clippers team is just the No. 6 seed in the west! The Pacers have won the last three matchups, but this is just a different Indiana team this season, and this team is pretty lousy. This team has lost five straight and covered only two of those numbers. In those two covers they beat the number by only 3.5 combined points, and both games could have gone either way. When LA has been covering they have been covering by a lot, and we think this one has a good chance of being a double-digit victory by the visitors. The Pacers are just 3-8-1 ATS at home this season, where they are obviously overvalued, and they have not done a good job against winning teams with a 1-3 ATS mark at home against those foes. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when laying less than 7 points, and we think all those trends stay consistent here on Wednesday night in Indiana.

Just think that this is a game that Dallas could and should win straight up, but the points give us some extra insurance in the case of a close loss. But of the two teams in the West that have been a big surprise, the Warriors and the Grizzlies, we think that the Warriors are the team that is built more for the long haul and that the Grizzlies have just started strong. No doubt this is a solid team, but we think they have been playing a bit above themselves and that Dallas is the stronger overall squad in this matchup. The Mavericks have done some of their best work on the road and as an underdog this season. They are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year and 5-1 ATS on the road against an above-.500 team. (Memphis is 7-9 ATS as a favorite and 2-2 ATS at home against winning teams). We expect a strong performance from the visitors here tonight in a game where they should get the W.

10 Unit Play. #717 Take Villanova over Illinois (7 pm ESPN) The Wildcats are used to playing at MSG and should be able to handle Illinois their second loss of the season tonight as part of the Jimmy V Classic. They are coming off three straight beat downs and should be able to pull away late against Illinois tonight. The Illini have only played one tough opponent this season and Miami handled them pretty easily. Illinois is 0-6 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 8 games played on Tuesday. Villanova is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 nonconference games. Jay Wright > John Groce.  

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Always love to play the angle of taking the team that lost the day before when teams play back-to-back, home-and-home games like this. The team that lost the previous day always plays better the next game, and when that the team that lost is at home for the second game, that makes it an even stronger play. The Wizards just had an off game yesterday in Boston, but we really see this one playing out a lot differently tonight and expect the Wizards to roll here. They are a much better team than Boston, and they have done their best work at home this season. This team will be able to make the necessary adjustments needed to play better here, and revenge is in play here because these teams played each other so recently.

These teams played less than a week ago in a game that the Mavs won by two in Milwaukee. That was a very hard-fought game on both sides, and that wasn’t a fluke in our eyes and showed that the Bucks can play with Dallas. The Mavs biggest lead in that game was 4, and it was competitive throughout. We don’t see this one being any different, and we think that this will be another close game. The Bucks are now the top ATS team in the NBA. They are the perfect kind of betting team. They had the worst record last season so expectations are very low, they come to play every night and are well-coached, and they lose enough games to not get on the public radar. We think this is another very public line tonight. Dallas is just not playing well right now and has covered only two of their last eight, while the Bucks have covered in six of their last seven and showed they can hang with this team just a few days ago.

10 Unit Play. #171 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Cardinals are in complete freefall at the moment with no landing spot in sight. QB Drew Stanton has played terrible the last two weeks and now they are in jeopardy of evening winning the NFC West. Kansas City is coming off back to back losses against AFC West teams (Denver & Oakland) and now face a must win game against Arizona. Kansas City has covered 11 of their last 14 regular season road games and I feel that they win this game convincingly. Arizona keeps losing players to injury and that has taken its toll on this team. Alex Smith has a 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2014 road games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. 

10 Unit Play. #835 Take California (4 pm CBSSN) Nonconference Game of the Year. The Wolf Pack have been our go to fade all season long and today will be no different. This team is one of the worst teams in the country on offense and that is beginning to take its toll on their defense. They have battled hard at times but yet they have lost five straight games and only one of those games came against a team that has a chance (Seton Hall) to make the NCAA Tournament. Cal is a sleeping giant at the moment and has played outstanding basketball to start the season. They have not been as impressive in their last two games against two bad teams but all that has done is put this line way too low. Do not be put off by their performance on Wednesday against Montana, as that was a big game for Montana as their coach was an assistant at Cal last season and wanted that job that went to Cuonzo Martin. You knew he was going to get Montana’s best shot and that is exactly what happened. The game before that was against Fresno State and the Bears just towed with them the whole game and only won by 7 when they should have won by 15 points. That is how I see this game going, as Nevada just is not any good. The Pack lost three three best players from last season and they have a lame duck head coach in David Carter who will likely be replaced at the end of the season. Jabari Bird may or may not play in this game but it will not matter, as Cal wins this game by double digits either way. Cal is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 nonconference games. Nevada is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #125 Take Florida State Seminoles over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC Championship, Saturday, 8 pm ABC) I am done proclaiming that Florida State is due for a breakout game because they have not done that at any point down the stretch. That being said they are much more talented than Georgia Tech especially without DeAndre Smelter as he is doubtful for this game with a knee injury. That is a major void for Georgia Tech and I do not feel that they will be able to overcome this loss at wide receiver. Florida State is 13-2 straight-up against Georgia Tech. People seem to believe that playing a triple option team is impossible to prepare for but I do not believe that is true. Florida State has speed and that is how you prevent big plays. The Noles will be able to move the football through the air at will and win this game by double digits. Florida State is 12-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 neutral site games. Georgia Tech is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of December. 

The Blazers have been one of the best ATS teams all season long, and we think that trend continues tonight at home against an overmatched opponent. This road trip hasn’t started well for the Pacers as they were blown out at Cleveland and at Phoenix last time out. The Suns beat them by 17, and this Portland team is better than Phoenix, and we feel like we could see a similar score here. The Pacers have been pretty good ATS as well so far this season, but they have the advantage of playing in the weak Eastern Conference and getting some very favorable numbers. But we think that this line is short tonight and that this one is a total mismatch, and unless Portland takes the night off they should win this one by double digits no problem.

10 Unit Play. #776 Take Long Beach State over Nevada (10 pm) The odds makers are starting to catch up to how bad this Nevada team is but I still feel we can get a few more games fading them. Like normal the Beach has played a brutal schedule to open the season and they already have wins against Kansas State and Xavier, two likely tournament teams come March. But this selection is more about going against Nevada, as they have lost their three best players from last season and have nobody left that can consistently score points. The Wolf Pack have lost four straight games including the last two against Weber State and Nebraska Omaha. They have a coach that will be dismissed at the end of this year and are in total free fall at the moment. Nevada is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. 

We think this Hornets team is a great “Buy Low” option right now as they are not as bad as they have looked. They are certainly in a good spot tonight. The Bulls played to Double OT last night against the Mavs in a very hard-fought game. Joakim Noah was dinged up in the game and is questionable here. Derrick Rose played a ton of minutes in that game, and he could possibly sit here or have a minutes restriction. Just think this is a big letdown spot for the visiting team. The Hornets will be desperate for a win here as they have lost nine straight. That stretch, however, was about as tough as a slate that you can play in the east as they faced eight playoff teams from last season. But they have a great opportunity for a win tonight as this Bulls team will be mentally and physically exhausted. And Charlotte will be desperate for a win and should bring their A-Game, especially after being blown out in embarrassing fashion last time out against Atlanta.

First off we want to say we think the Raptors are an excellent team. There is no doubt they have earned their 13-4 record. However, they have been playing well above their heads, in our opinion, and we are expecting a tough result for them tonight. The Raptors have played a home-heavy schedule this season thus far, with 11 games at home and only six on the road. Any good team is going to compile a record that could be deceiving to the average bettor under these circumstances. They do have a couple quality wins on the season for sure, but they have also played a lot of lousy teams. Just think that this team is a tad bit overrated right now, and the injury to their star DeMar DeRozan is definitely underrated. This guy is not a household name by any means, so he does not move the line as much as he should. But he has been a rock for this team for years and is the team’s best player, so his absence should move the line considerably. Sacramento is also dealing with injury issues as DeMarcus Cousins is listed as questionable here as he has been battling a stomach flu. However, we have a trusted source that says he is likely to play tonight, and even if he doesn’t we think the Kings have an excellent chance to win here. We really like this Sacramento team this season, and this club actually is a game better ATS than the Raptors at 11-6 ATS. They are very underrated right now, and we handicapped this game at Sacramento -4, so there is some great line value here tonight. These teams don’t meet often, but Toronto is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings and 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Sacramento.

10 Unit Play. #544 Take Miami over Illinois (9 pm ESPN 2) Both teams are vastly improved this season and will be making an appearance in the NCAA Tournament. That being said I just believe Miami is the better team and will lay the small change with them on Tuesday night as part of the ACC Big 10 Challenge. The Illini are coming back from a tournament in Las Vegas over the weekend and I expect them to be a little jet lagged for this game. The Hurricanes picked up two key transfer that sat out last season but are paying dividends this year. Miami is fourth in the country shooting the three and that will be the difference tonight in Coral Gables. Coach Groce has not won many big road game at Illinois and tonight will be no different. The U has covered 5 of their last 7 home games. 

We went against the Timberwolves last night in Portland, and this banged-up Minnesota team played about the best they could and still managed to lose the game ATS. Now they come in on a back-to-back to play a red-hot Clippers team, and we think this one is going to be really ugly for the visitors. Los Angeles is back home after one of their longest road trips of the season. It was a very successful road trip as well. They went 6-1 on the trip and covered five lines. They beat Utah by 16. They beat Houston by 17. They beat Charlotte by 21. They beat Miami by 17 and Orlando by 24. And this was all on the road. We would say all those teams are probably better than the Minnesota team that the Clippers will face tonight (probably not Orlando), on the floor where LA does its best work. We don’t think the Clippers will take this game lightly as they got off to a slow start this season and know that every game is crucial in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. The Clippers are pretty healthy right now, their offense is clicking and their defense is getting better. Just don’t see how the Timberwolves will be competitive in this one. They are already lousy in back-to-backs this season (1-3 straight up and against the spread), and they are also bad when getting lots of points against top competition (0-6 ATS when getting 8 or more points). The Clippers have not been good when laying big points this season, but that is mainly because of the team’s slow start, and this team has really turned the corner recently. This one should be a major blowout!

10 Unit Play. #472 Take Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Many believe that this will be a Super Bowl preview as the Patriots and Packers are playing outstanding football of late. That being said we will side with the Packers as the Patriots are in a prime spot for a letdown. New England dominated a suspect Detroit team last week at home. The Lions were not able to move the football much on offense but Green Bay is a much more explosive team on offense than is Detroit. New England has not face a team like this since Denver, as Green Bay has the ability to beat you through the air or on the ground with Eddie Lacy. The Packers defense is getting better especially since they moved Clay Mathews to inside linebacker and they will be able to get pressure on Tom Brady. New England is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 home games. Lay the small change with Green Bay in this one. 

10 Unit Play. #406 Take UNLV Runnin Rebels over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN U) We have a great feel for this Nevada team and have not lost any selections for or against them this season. The Wolf Pack had an appearance in the MWC Championship Game in their grasp but feel apart last week against Fresno State (We had the Bulldogs +8). Now they face an angry UNLV team that pissed away a game last week in Hawaii and this is the game that have had circled for over a month. Nevada is not a good passing team and is not good on defense defending the pass. These two things will all UNLV to keep this game close and take it down to the wire. Nevada may get the cannon back but it will come in a battle that is close throughout. Nevada is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. 

10 Unit Play. #524 Take West Virginia over College of Charleston (7 pm) The Mountaineers are back and should have no problem putting away the Cougars at home in this Puerto Rico Tip-Off game. Charleston has played a tough schedule thus far but West Virginia has played two of the same teams and beat both of them by double digits (UCONN & George Mason). Coach Huggins knows the importance of getting off to a good start this season since he has not made the NCAA Tournament in a couple of years and thus he will not take any of these games lightly. CC is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #804 Take Mississippi State over Saint Louis (9:30 pm CBSSN) Both teams have played cupcakes thus far in 2014 so it is hard to get a read on either team. So what this play comes down to is that one team returns everybody whereas the other team is in complete rebuild mode. This is the team that the Bulldogs will need to show some progress under Rick Ray and believe it or not this is a tournament that they can actually win. Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against Atlantic 10 teams. 

10 Unit Play. #800 Take Duke over Furman (5 pm ESPN U) I just do not believe that the books can set these lines high enough for games played at home. We saw it with Kentucky last night and now it is Duke’s turn to take on a lightweight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils would have covered this number twice already this season Furman already lost to Charleston by 35 points. Furman is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games overall. Duke has covered the spread in every game that they have played this season. Duke will score over 100 points in this contest and cover this huge number. 

Just think Denver is massively underrated right now. They started off the season horribly and looked like one of the dregs of the Western Conference. However, recently they have been playing like a playoff team. They have won four straight and five of six and they have covered four games in that stretch with one push. They are catching this Bulls team on the second of a back-to-back, and Denver is one of the toughest places to play in this situation in the high elevation. Chicago has not been playing well offensively on this road trip, and it just does not seem like they will have a breakout game in this environment in the second game in as many nights, They barely squeaked out a win last night against a Utah team that is not as good as Denver. Chicago is also 1-3 ATS in back-to-backs this season and the Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Denver. Also, since Derrick Rose played last night (very limited minutes) we think there is a great chance he sits tonight or is very limited again.

10 Unit Play. #514 Take Kentucky over UT Arlington (7 pm SEC Network) UT Arlington is coming off a losing record last year and only returns two starters and is expected to be a middle of the pack team in the Sun Belt this season. Buffalo bet them this season and that was the only team that gave Kentucky trouble. Kentucky is loaded and deep and are almost impossible for midmajors to score points on. There are so deep that they never call of the dogs and thus the Wildcats are able to run up the score and cover these big numbers. Kentucky is 10-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 games overall. 

Really like the way the Nuggets have been playing lately, and they seem to have gotten their acts together. They have won three straight, including a big road win at Cleveland. They are also healthy and rested coming into this game, and we expect another strong effort here against the hapless Lakers. We had this line handicapped at -6 and would have leaned to Denver at that number. Denver has won the last six matchups in this series, and they have covered in five of those games, most in blowout fashion. Just think this one is another mismatch, and we expect the Nuggets to take the cash in a pretty comfortable win tonight.

10 Unit Play. #256 Take New England Patriots over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Patriots are the best team in the AFC at the moment having won six straight games including blowouts the last three weeks. Two of those blowouts came against Denver and Indianapolis, teams that are better than Detroit. The Lions have been winning close a lot of late but that came to an end last week in Arizona when their offense did not do much of anything. That came against a back-up quarterback in Drew Stanton and now they must face one of the all-time greats in Tom Brady. The Patriots are getting it down on both sides of the football and Detroit has given up 31 sacks this season. New England is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS when playing at home coming off a Sunday Night game. Week 12 has not been kind to Detroit going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 12 games. New England has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #180 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Louisville Cardinals (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Notre Dame is coming off a humiliating loss to Northwestern and many believe that their season is crumbling at the moment. I am not one of those people and feel they will bounce back in a big way today against Louisville. Both teams have issues at quarterback as the Cardinals will be playing their back-up quarterback in this game in Reggie Bonnafon. Despite their performance the last couple of weeks I still believe in this Notre Dame defense and feel they will be able to contain the running game of Louisville. Everett Golson is an effective quarterback when he does not turn over the football and he will be able to move the football on this aggressive Louisville defense. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. 

10 Unit Play. #737 Take Syracuse over California (9:30 pm ESPN 2) The Orange are happy to head south via a bus ride to their home away from home. MSG has been a favorite of Coach Boeheim and we will side with them tonight with this short number against Cal. The Golden Bears were just a middle of the pack team last year in the PAC-12 and I do not see them being much better this season. The Orange are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. Cal is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the ACC. Syracuse always has a winning streak to start the season and tonight will be no different. 

10 Unit Play. #532 Take Wisconsin over Green Bay (9 pm BTN) Green Bay gave Wisconsin quite a battle last year at the Resch Center and you can bet the Wisconsin coaches are reminding them of this all week long. Green Bay has a player in Keifer Sykes who tore apart Wisconsin last year but I just do not see that happening at the Kohl Center. The Phoenix were a two headed monster last year Alec Brown but he graduated and thus this team is not as effective. Green Bay will win the Horizon League but they are not ready to stay with the best Big 10 team on their home floor. Bo Ryan plays his starters most of the game even in blowout and that has allowed Wisconsin to go 35-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 52 nonconference games. 

These teams are among the best in the league record-wise. However, we think that Dallas is the more complete – and better overall – team, and we think if both teams play to their capabilities then the Mavs should end up with a comfortable win here. They are playing as well as any team in the league right now and have won and covered four straight and five of six. The Wizards are 7-2, but they have had a really easy schedule up to this point. Look at the teams they have beat to earn this record: Orlando twice, Indiana twice, Detroit, the Knicks and Milwaukee. Not exactly a murderers’ row. And they are only 4-5 ATS, which shows that they are overrated by the oddsmakers. The Western Conference is of course much tougher than the East, and we just think this line is short and very beatable for the road team. Dallas has won and covered three straight meetings in this series, and this is the best team that they have had in any of those meetings Their offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and we don’t see the Wizards slowing them down, and we also don’t think Washington can keep pace in this one for four full quarters.

10 Unit Play. #550 Take Louisville over Jacksonville State (7 pm ESPN 3) The only fear I have about this game is that Louisville will be jet lagged after playing in Puerto Rico on Friday night. But that is really not that long of a flight and the Cardinals are playing a terrible team in Jacksonville State who got blown out by Marshall on Friday night. I see this game as a high 30’s victory from the Cardinals. Louisville is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #724 Take Missouri over Valparaiso (6 pm SEC Network) The Tigers losing their home opener makes this play that much stronger. Missou lost most of their talent from last season but they are still an SEC school playing a school from the Horizon League. Missouri gets a major upgrade in coaching with Kim Anderson and he knows the importance of this game to avoid starting the season 0-2. We used Valpo as a play on Friday and won but the short turnaround and travel will due them in tonight in Columbia. The Tigers just could not make a shot in their home opener but things should change for the better on Sunday. Valpo’s cover on Friday night was the first time it has happened in their last 8 games. 

10 Unit Play. #458 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Kansas City is playing outstanding football of late, having won 4 straight games, and they are getting it done on both sides of the football. Seattle is finding life as a defending champion much more difficult, and they are getting team’s best effort this season. Seattle has only covered one time this season on the road, and that came against Washington, who still moved the football on them. It will be important for Kansas City to stop the read option, especially when the quarterback keeps it. Seattle is not great at throwing the football, especially when teams know they have to throw it. Kansas City has covered the spread all 4 games during this winning streak. Seattle has covered the spread just 1 time in their last 5 games. 

10 Unit Play. #371 Take Florida State Seminoles over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Everyone keeps saying Florida State will run the table but yet the pointspreads in their games say otherwise. Miami was ranked No. 7 in the country when these two teams met last season and got pounded by 27 points in a game that was not close. Florida State has won their last 4 games in Miami and I just do not believe this young Miami quarterback can exploit this FSU defense. Since Miami moved out of the Orange Bowl to play at Sun Life Stadium, there home crowd edge has been nonexistent. Florida State still has the best player on the field in Jameis Winston and he has not lost a game when he is the starting quarterback. Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Expect FSU to have a strong following in South Florida, as the Noles punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game. 

10 Unit Play. #812 Take Valparaiso over East Tennessee State (8:30 pm) The Crusaders were in a major rebuild last year and they came away respectable with a winning record and a winning record in conference. Now they should start to see the fruits of their labor as they return 4 starters including Alec Peters. He can score from anywhere on the court and expect him to give the Buccaneers fits all night. ETSU returns to the Southern Conference this season although it is a new looking Southern Conference. The Bucs lost most of their production in the front count and that will be there undoing tonight on the road. With Missouri on deck, this is a game Valpo needs to get and I expect them to get it by double digits. ETSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games. 

Both teams have gotten off to a slow start. But the Spurs have gotten off to a REAL slow start, and this seems to be a classic case of a team losing that fire after they won a championship. We saw it with Miami last season. And it looks like the Spurs are in the same boat. This team will be fine eventually, but we think they are surely on the fade list right now. They are just 2-3 so far this season, and those two wins have come by a total of just three points. They were beaten handily in their two road games, to Phoenix and Houston, two teams we think are inferior to the Spurs opponent tonight. They are 0-5 ATS on the season. The Clippers are off to a slow start. However, they showed a spark last time out in a home win against Portland on Saturday. We think this team has the hunger and desire to be one of the best in the west this season, but they started off in a slump. Even though they are 4-2 on the season (0-6 ATS), they have had a pretty easy schedule to start off up until their last two games, a blowout in Golden State and slim win at home against Portland. They played real well in that Portland game, and we think this team responded well to Doc Rivers’ criticism after the Warriors blowout. And this team normally gets up to play the Spurs. They have covered five of the last eight meetings, and we think they show up in a big way tonight against the defending champs.

This looks like a definite double-digit victory to us. Orlando has won two straight, although those wins were certainly not of the quality variety, coming against Minnesota and Philly. We have pegged this team as one to go against early in the season, and we just don’t think this is a good spot for them. The Nets are playing pretty well right now. They have won three of four, and all of those wins came by double-digits. This team is fully healthy right now, and they are playing with confidence. After last season’s poor start, we don’t think this team is taking these early-season games lightly, and we expect them to go all out today against a team they should beat handily. This is just a pretty big mismatch in our eyes, and we had this game handicapped at Brooklyn -11, so we think there is some nice value here on Sunday.

The Clippers have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the league to start the season. Yes, they are a respectable 3-2, but their wins came against a very easy schedule, and this team has not been any good. We thought they might wake up on Wednesday against the Warriors, their biggest rival, but they played their worst game of the season on this night. If they are not going to play well in that game there are some real issues here. We are high on this team in the long run, but we expect these struggles to start the season to continue for awhile, and since this is a pretty popular team we don’t think the oddsmakers are going to make too big of an adjustment on this team. They are 0-5 ATS so far, and this trend might continue. We definitely see it continuing here on Saturday. Portland plays tough in this series. They have covered the last two meetings and won two of the last three straight up. They are in much better form after they dismantled Dallas on Thursday, and we think they have a great chance to win this game straight up.

10 Unit Play. #123 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Big 10 Game of the Year. Minnesota is doing the same thing again! They beat up on a weak schedule to start the 2013 season and history is again repeating itself. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago and that is not when you want to have a bye week which occurred last week. Iowa on the other hand is also 3-1 in the Big 10 and they are coming off their best performance of the season dominating Northwestern from start to finish. Minnesota was playing much better than Iowa when these two teams met in the Twin Cities last year (Minn was 6-1) and Iowa dominated that game from start to finish winning 23-7. Iowa has outscored Minnesota 41-0 in the first half in their last two meetings. Iowa has also been outstanding on the road covering the pointspread in 8 of their last 9 road games. This is just a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota will be lucky to win one of their last four games (they will be an underdog in all four games). Iowa always losses a game they should not lose early in the season but by the end of November this team has things figured out and you can expect another monster effort today in Minneapolis, a short drive for many Hawkeye fans. Iowa has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Everyone knows about this 16-game winning streak the Heat have over the Hornets. With LeBron heading back to Cleveland, that streak isn’t going to last much longer, and we think it gets broken tonight. The Hornets will surely be extra motivated for this game, while to the Heat we think this is just another game. Look, we think this Heat team is pretty good. They were definitely underrated coming into the season. They have played pretty well to start the season. And they have had a collective chip on their shoulder that has been obvious. But their three toughest games were at home, and they played a really bad Philly team in their lone road win. They were beaten pretty badly last night at home against the Rockets, and we just think that maybe they have lost that early-season edge of the motivation to prove everyone wrong. Actually think these teams here are pretty even, but the Heat are probably a bit overrated right now and the Hornets maybe a little underrated. Charlotte has had a slow start to the season, no doubt, but we expect to see the best game thus far of the season from them tonight.

The Grizzlies have set a franchise record for wins to start a season. Wait. This team has never won three games to start a season? This exemplifies the fact that this team is not a great regular season club. They are a real factor in the playoffs because of the style they play. They have had a pretty easy schedule to start the season – Minnesota at home and Indiana and Charlotte on the road – and they won two of those games by a combined six points. We think the Pelicans match up real well here. They have covered five straight in this series and seven of the last eight. And this is the best version of the Pelicans they have faced in this series (not to mention pretty much the same Memphis team). Also, we lean heavily towards the under here and we expect both teams to play strong defense. When you are expecting a low-scoring game like this then the points with the underdog are more valuable. If the total here is 210 then four points isn’t a big deal. But when these teams might combine for a score around 180 then the points with the dog become even more valuable. But we think there is a great chance that the Pelicans can win this game straight up, and at the very least we see a close game that comes down to the final few seconds.

We expect a real close game here, and taking the points is the only way to go. We think the Warriors are the better overall team, and they have a great chance to win this one SU. Portland did not look great last time out as they got steamrolled in Sacramento, and Golden State has opened up the season in better form. Plus, all the trends point to a Warriors cover. They are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Portland and 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. These are veteran clubs with stable rosters, so those trends hold up even more than most. With teams this evenly matched you just have to go with the team getting points. It just so happens we are getting the better team here and one that has the possibility of pulling the road upset.

10 Unit Play. #466 Take San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Rams are hanging by a thread at the moment and their injuries are starting to catch up to them. These two teams met on 10/13 and the Rams jumped out to a 14 point lead and they still lost by 14 points. The 49ers have won three straight games against the Rams in the Bay Area (3-0 ATS as well). The 49ers are starting to get healthy on defense and this is a game they must win in order to make the playoffs this year in a tough division. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. 

Orlando is going to have a real rough start to the season, no matter where the venue. We think this is going to be one of the worst ATS teams in the league through the first half of the season, at least, until these young players start to develop. It has already started as they are 0-2 ATS despite being dished out a couple of very favorable lines. Toronto is coming in with confidence after a big home win and cover at home against Atlanta, and they will be well rested after two nights off. This was also one of the best ATS teams in the league last season, and since they don’t have any big-name stars (and they are from a market that is not popular) they will have betting value all season long this year as well. We are getting a real nice line here because the Raptors are the road team, but we don’t think the home-court advantage will play into this one too much as we think there is a good chance that the Raptors win this one by double-digits.

10 Unit Play. #409 Take Utah State Aggies over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11 pm the MWC) Yes I know Utah State has lost three quarterbacks to injury this season and they are likely down to people in the parking lot, but they still have enough to beat Hawaii. Nevada did not play very well last week especially in the first half and still pounded Hawaii (a late TD by the Warriors made the score closer). Utah State has by far and away the best defense in the Mountain West and I was encouraged by the Kent Myers who came in and moved the football once Craig Harrison went down. Hawaii is in total shambles with zero home crowd edge (the stands last week were almost empty) and a coach that is just past his prime. Hawaii hung with a couple of PAC-12 teams early in the season but that seems like a decade ago and this team is just not the same without Joey Iosefa. The Aggies have one of the best defense in the country, especially against the run and will win this game by double digits. It does not matter who starts at quarterback for the Aggies, the talent at the other spots is too much for the Warriors to stay close. Lay the small change in this game. 

We are not at all concerned about the Clippers lousy preseason or their lackluster performance in their home opener last night against a banged-up, starless OKC team. Preseason does not matter to us, and the players on a veteran club like this don’t care, either. As far as last night, we think that this team just had a bad game. They shot poorly and did not seem to have great energy. We actually think they were looking ahead a bit to this game. Remember, the Clippers played horribly last year in their season opener to these same Lakers. And they ended up being fine. And we think this Clippers team is better and more experienced than last year’s club. That season-opening win was the Lakers only reason to celebrate in this series in a long time. The Clippers have won and covered seven of the last eight meetings, and all three of the most recent matchups were won by 23 points or more. The Clippers really want to embarrass the Lakers. They are still second fiddle in the city even though they have the better team. Every matchup in this series is like a revenge game, and we expect the Clippers to look more like the championship contender they are tonight than the struggling team that they looked like last night.

10 Unit Play. #276 Take New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Still not ready to right off the Saints this season especially playing a night game at the Superdome. New Orleans is 2-4 this season but 2-0 at home and as we all know this is a completely different team when playing at home. Green Bay is on a roll right now winning four straight games but all of them came against teams that will likely not be making the playoffs this season (Carolina still could win the AFC South). This is a must win game for New Orleans in order to save their season and I believe that they will come out hunger and ready to make a statement. New Orleans had Detroit beat last week (a team that beat Green Bay) before collapsing in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. Tonight they take out their frustration on the Packers. New Orleans has won 10 straight home games (8-2 ATS) winning these games by an average of 16.4 points per game. 

10 Unit Play. #114 Take Boise State Broncos over BYU Cougars (Friday 9 pm ESPN) Boise State did not look that impressive last week against Fresno State but they still won the game! That is more than BYU can say as they lost to Nevada as a double digit favorite at home. The fact remains that BYU is continuing to get too much respect from the odds makers. This is a completely different team without Taysom Hill and his back-up is just not up to par with numerous turnovers. BYU does not have the same rushing attack and thus have to rely more on the passing game. This is the best team BYU will have faced in 2014 and they are also playing a team with revenge from last season. The Broncos have won two straight games after their Air Force debacle including beating Nevada on the road and QB Grant Hedrick is playing much better of late with just one interception in his last two games. Boise State got run over last year in Provo and you can bet that does not sit well with the 2014 team. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Boise State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. We will keep fading the Cougars with these short numbers. 

10 Unit Play. #469 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) NFL Game of the Year. The Chargers just keep winning and are now one of the best teams in the league. That being said, this team is really banged up, and because of this all of the pressure falls on QB Phillip Rivers and his wide receivers. San Diego has no success running the football against Oakland until their final drive of the game, and I do not see things getting better this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has been outstanding in this spot, winning 13 of his 15 games following a bye. Much like the Oakland game this week, divisional games tend to come down to the wire, and I just do not see San Diego blowing out KC. QB Rivers will have his moments in this game and put up some passing yards, but I expect the Chiefs to match them score for score. Kansas City if 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during October. Take the points in this one. 

10 Unit Play. #270 Take Oakland Raiders over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) If the Raiders are ever going to put forth an effort during the 2014 season it will come this week. Oakland made a coaching change during their bye week and I expect them to play better under new coach Tony Sparano. San Diego has not played well against Oakland in recent years going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Chargers will also be looking ahead as they have Kansas City and Denver on deck. Oakland is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during October. 

10 Unit Play. #165 Take Oregon Ducks over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) This game has lost a little of its luster with both teams suffering setbacks last week and thus the loser of this game has no chance to make it into the 4 team playoff. That being said I expect Oregon to bounce back in a big way and get back into the win column. Oregon has shown signs of being dominant this season evident by their big win over Michigan State but the same cannot be said about UCLA. The Bruins has struggle in all of their games at some point including Arizona State. This UCLA team just does not have it this year and I have never thought Jim Mora Jr was a big time coach. QB Marcus Mariota is still a big time player and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Oregon has won 10 of the last 12 meetings with UCLA. Oregon is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. UCLA is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.  

10 Unit Play. #476 Take New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) New England could not have played any worse last week in Kansas City and because of that they enter this game as an underdog at home for just the second time in close to a decade. Cincinnati could very well be the best team in the AFC but they have never handled prosperity all that well in recent years. Much like Tampa Bay winning for us last week, all of these players are professionals and pride is on the line when they are coming off an embarrassing game. The Patriots need this game and they get it at Foxborough. 

10 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 non conference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder and expect that to continue this week. 

10 Unit Play. #265 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Chargers are off to an impressive 2-1 start this season (could easily be 3-0) but they have never seemed to handle prosperity well during this century. Jacksonville is the type of team that is heard to get up for and thus I expect the Chargers to just go through the motions and not play inspired football. San Diego is banged up a running back with Mathews and Woodhead out for this game. Jacksonville will start Blake Bortles and I expect him to bring a little life to this stagnate offense. 

10 Unit Play. #205 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) College Football Game of the Year. Nevada is just a better team in 2014. They have a much better quarterback and they have vastly improved their defense this season. They are also playing a team that they have had great success against dating back to the WAC. Nevada has won five straight games in this series and 10 of the last 11 match-ups (8-3 ATS). Nevada was left for dead late last season and was a 7-point underdog against San Jose State and still beat them by 22 points! To make matters worse for San Jose State, they have had a quarterback change as Joe Gray will likely get the start today over Blake Jurich. The Spartans are just lost on offense without their quarterback and top wide receiver from last year. Nevada could easily be 3-0 on the season despite playing two PAC-12 teams. They dominated Washington State much better than Oregon did last week and if not for some questionable calls in Tucson they hung with Arizona as well. Nevada is also coming off a bye and that has allowed a couple of offensive linemen to get healthy and should allow their dominating running attack to find holes early and often in this game. QB Cody Fajardo has torn apart this team and tonight will be no different. 

10 Unit Play. #460 Take New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm FOX) New Orleans will be a strong public play this week but that will not deter us from using them as they are desperate for a win. The Saints are 0-2 but they have yet to play in the Superdome this season and we all know they are a completely different at home. New Orleans is 17-0 straight-up and 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games that Sean Payton has coached. Minnesota showed their true colors last week against New England and playing on the road will be too much to overcome and keep this a one possession game. 

10 Unit Play. #363 Take Oregon Ducks over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) The Ducks got things going against Wyoming after a slow start in the first quarter and I just do not see Washington State being able to stop Oregon whatsoever. Wazzou will throw every down and move the football a little big but sooner or later Oregon will go on a scoring run and never look back. Oregon has scored an average of 50 points in their last 4 games against Washington State. Oregon is usually a mid-30 point favorite against Wazzou and thus I do not see them getting backdoored in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #189 Take UCLA Bruins over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 8 pm FOX) Texas will put forth a better effort this week against UCLA but the fact remains that they just do not have much talent. New Coach Charlie Strong has laid down the law with suspensions and they have also been bitten by the injury bug as well. That came to a head last week when BYU destroyed them by a score of 41-7. The fact remains that UCLA is a better team than BYU and they also have a duel threat quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his legs. UCLA has not been that impressive this season in their two victories but I feel that have just been going through the motions waiting for ta big time game with a national audience. They have that here and expect a focus and determined effort. Texas is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against ranked teams on a neutral field. Texas was embarrassed by BYU in 2013 and even with revenge on their minds they still got run over last week. That just tells me they do not have the horses. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #488 Take Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Broncos are a juggernaut, especially on offense and early in the season. Denver pounded Baltimore in Week 1 of the 2013 season, and I expect a similar result tonight against Manning’s former team. Remember, Indianapolis handed Denver their first loss of the season in 2013, and you can bet Denver has not forgotten it. Indianapolis is really banged up on the offensive line and getting very little from the running back position. QB Luck is outstanding, but I just do not see him being competitive in this game. Denver needed to get better on defense, and that is what happened. Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games. 

10 Unit Play. #360 Take New Mexico Lobos over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) No top 25 team lost as many starters as Arizona State did from 2013. Therefore I do not believe they will be able to run over teams especially on the road. New Mexico is not very good, but like Georgia Southern last week, they have a run based offense that an shorten the game especially if they can stay close early. Arizona State has dropped six straight road openers and this is just too many points for them to cover on the road. New Mexico always has a strong fan base and this should be a good crowd for both teams. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. QB Taylor Kelly is good but I just do not believe he can cover this spread by himself. 

10 Unit Play. #188/#160 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am expecting big things from Purdue this year as Coach Darrell Hazell is in his second year of this major rebuilding project. Purdue has a ton of experience on both sides of the football and this is an important game since it will be one of the few games they are favored to win. Actually Purdue should win three of their four nonconference games but this is a must win if they are going to show any kind of improvement in 2014. Purdue is a perfect 3-0 in this series and Western Michigan was terrible last year matching Purdue’s 1-11 record. The Broncos have lost 19 straight road openers and I feel that Purdue will want to make a statement in this game to rally the fan base for 2014. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Big Ten teams. 

10 Unit Play. #265/#717 Take Dallas Cowboys over Miami Dolphins (Saturday 7 pm CBS 4 Miami) NFL Preseason Game of the Year. Both of these coaches are on the hot seat this year as both teams underachieved last year. The key points to making this a strong are as follows. 1) Joe Philbin does not care about preseason. He is 3-8 in his 2+ plus and 1-1 this season. Atlanta tried to give them the game in Week 1 and they still lost. He has a 2-9 ATS record and 0-2 in Week 3 home games. Dallas got QB Tony Romo back under center last week (threw a TD pass) and put up a ton of points in their loss against Baltimore. The Cowboys really should have won that game but gave up a couple of fluke plays (fumble TD & a punt return TD) and I really feel we are in good shape in they can prevent these type of scores tonight. This play is very similar to San Diego last year, as they were 0-2 entering Week 3. No team wants to go winless in the preseason especially when the owner is Jerry Jones. Thus I feel Dallas will give the extra effort to win this game straight-up. Getting points is just icing on the cake. 

10-Unit Play. #601 Take Indiana over Los Angeles (10:30 p.m., Monday, July 28) Los Angeles won the first meeting of the season. But with the Sparks being so mediocre this year overall, especially just 3-9 at home, it is hard to validate that they should be favored by this solid a number. LA has actually won and covered each of the past six meetings, but I think this one is going to the road team. The Fever come in having won four of their past five road games. They are tested away from home and will step up tonight. This is a play backing a live underdog who can win the game outright, so value is with the points. LA is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games. Take the road team and the number. 

10 Unit Play - Take Hamilton (-4.5) vs. Ottawa, Saturday July 26, 7 pm ET

This sets up as a very good spot for the Tiger Cats here. Ottawa is coming off an emotional win at home last week in their home debut as an expansion team. It was a good win, but there are two issues. First, there is a good chance for an emotional letdown after a game like that - especially on the road in a temporary stadium because Hamilton's new home is not ready. Second, the RedBlacks didn't score a touchdown in the win, so their offense is not sharp. They are facing a Hamilton defense that is very good. They completely confounded the Stampeders in Calgary last week, and they will not be anxious to let Ottawa QB Henry Burris, a teammate until this year, have a good day against them. Ottawa is not going to score, and that is an issue. Hamilton has not been great on offense, but they performed better than the scoreboard suggested last week, and were just a few sloppy errors away from a good performance. Kent Austin is an exceptional coach - the best in the CFL - and he will get this team on track soon. Hamilton represents strong value. 

Montreal at Calgary, Saturday, June 28, 3 pm ET

10 Unit Play: Take Montreal (+7.5)

The home team is going to be one of the Grey Cup favorites this year, but they are getting too much respect in this opening game. Calgary is welcoming a new starting quarterback, and they didn't name Bo Levi Mitchell, the former SMU and Eastern Washington QB, the starter until Tuesday. He is a good player and he had some experience last year, but he is still not guaranteed to be at his best out of the gate. He certainly wasn't in his final preseason game. Montreal starts former Heisman winner Troy Smith, and after some experience starting last year he should be ready to impress out of the gate. He has an excellent receiving corps supporting him - including good ol' Chad Johnson himself. Montreal has a new head coach this year, and while the change is a mild concern at least it means some stability after a mess at the top of the organization last year - former Boise State and Colorado coach Dan Hawkins was fired just a handful of games into his tenure. New coach Tom Higgins is excellent, and he will be hungry to prove himself here - his last coaching gig was in Calgary, where he was eventually replaced by current top man John Hufnagel.

Calgary is vulnerable to a hangover to start this season. They were an impressive 14-4 in the regular season last year, but flamed out in the playoffs when they lost at home to eventual champs Saskatchewan. It was a demoralizing loss, and the effects could take a while to shake. That could lead to a slower start to the season.

Add it all up, and while Calgary is in a good position to start out with a win, it seems likely that Montreal can at least keep it close, and that they are being given too many points here.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports