Sports Picks & Predictions

10 Unit Play. #88 Take Michigan State Spartans over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 8 pm ESPN) Underdog Game of the Year.

Note: We are aware of the suspension to Bill Gholston and feel we are getting an extra 1/2 point because of it and still really like this play a lot!

I must admit that in the opinion of this writer, this line is way off the mark. Wisconsin has yet to be tested on the road this season and in fact this will be their first true road game of the season. Michigan was in the same boat as Wisconsin was last week and lost by double digits to the Spartans in East Lansing. The home team has won the last six meetings in this series and it would not surprise me if that streak reaches seven games. The Badgers have not won a game in East Lansing since 2002 and this is a place they traditionally do not play well at.
Michigan State has weapons that can exploit this Wisconsin defense that has yet to be tested, especially through the air. Nebraska and QB Taylor Martinez cannot throw the football like QB Kirk Cousins can and this will become evident during the course of this 60 minute affair. This will be the first true test Wisconsin will receive this season and I just do not believe that they will be up to the task. Wisconsin had become a very public team and thus we continue to get great value with this selection, as it is now approaching double-digits. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Spartans are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Big Ten Games. Michigan State hands Wisconsin their first loss of the season and we collect big in the process as well!

10 Unit Play. #110 Take New York Giants over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Giants were in great shape to take command of the NFC East and solidify their standing in the NFC for the playoffs but then they laid an egg last week at home against the Seattle Seahawks. I expect them to bounce back this week and make a statement against an up and coming Buffalo Bills team. Buffalo is getting it done on defense by creating turnovers, as they are just the just 28th ranked unit in the NFL. That means that if the Giants do not turn over the football, they should win this game by double digits. Buffalo is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory. New York is 22-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 31 games played during the month of October. An argry Giants team makes a major statement on Sunday and we collect in the process as well.
New York Football Giants 31, Buffalo Bills 20

10 Unit Play. #69 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday 7 p.m. Big Ten Network)
The writing is on the wall! This is not a very good Hawkeyes team, as the running attack is non-existent and their defensive line is not as good as in past years. They stayed with Penn State last week, but Penn State is not any good either.
Northwestern had Michigan on the ropes last Saturday in Evanston, but turnovers and some questionable officiating calls did them in over the last 30 minutes. They could not contain Denard Robinson, but Iowa has nobody like him on their roster. Northwestern can score points on most clubs as long as QB Dan Persa is healthy and only their defense is of concern. But, as I mentioned, Iowa does not have the playmakers to threaten them with big plays. Northwestern is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Iowa is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
Northwestern by 10

10 Unit Play.#86 Take LSU Tigers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS)
It may be hard in most cases justifying laying this many points against Florida. However, these two teams are heading in opposite directions. Florida went all out last week to try and upset Alabama in the swamp, but they wore down and the game was not very close. Now they must go on the road to face LSU, a team that might have the best defense in the country. Throw in the fact that the Gators will be starting a true freshman at quarterback, as fifth-year senior John Brantley is out for this game, and it looks like it could be a long day for Florida.
LSU has been tested like no other team in the country has been this season. They have played away from Baton Rouge against Oregon, Mississippi State, and West Virginia. Florida is 2-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers prove why they are the top team in the country with a dominating victory against Florida.
LSU Tigers 27, Florida Gators 6

10 Unit Play. #116 Take Houston Texans over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1 pm CBS)
A match-up of two teams expected to make some noise in the AFC takes place this Sunday at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX. Houston suffered a loss last week in New Orleans, but it was not due to lack of effort since they outplayed the Saints for most of that game only to fall apart toward the end of regulation. The Steelers are 2-1 on the season but those two wins came against bottom feeder teams in Indianapolis and Seattle. The one good team they did play this season they got blown out by the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games being played in October. Pittsburgh did not play well offensively Sunday night against Indianapolis and only scoring in the twenties will not be enough to stay with the high powered Houston Texans. Houston has covered 4 of their 5 games when they are the favorite.
Houston Texans 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

10 Unit Play. #106 Take New Orleans Saints over Houston Texans (Sunday 1 pm Fox)
The is a very attractive match-up on paper as it features two high powered offenses led by QB Matt Schaub and QB Drew Brees. The Saints sit at just 1-1 on the season and thus they cannot afford to take this game lightly. The Texans have opened up against two teams with very weak offenses (Indianapolis and Miami) and they will not be ready for the Saints Sunday at the Superdome. The Saints defense played much better in Week 2 against the Chicago Bears than they did in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. Last week they recorded six sacks and seven tackles for loss. They are also getting healthy on defense and expect DC Gregg Williams to hit QB Matt Schaub early and often.
Houston is the clear favorite to win the NFC South this season but that is more by default than it is them being a good team. I still have no confidence in Coach Gary Kubiak to win a big game, especially when it comes on the road. I have a lot of confidence in Coach Sean Payton, since he has won numerous big game including a Super Bowl two years ago. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

New Orleans Saints 31, Houston Texas 20

10 Unit Play. #94 Take Arizona State Sun Devils over USC Trojans (Saturday 10:15 p.m. ESPN)

Now is the time for Coach Dennis Erickson and his Sun Devils to finally play to their potential and knock off the Trojans for the first time in their last six trips to Tempe. This will be the Trojans first road game of the season and they have not played well in their three home games, including struggling to beat a Minnesota team that lost to New Mexico State. I look for the Sun Devils to put pressure on QB Matt Barkley, forcing them to run the football, and that is something the Trojans are not very good at doing.

Losing last week to Illinois will not have any effect on this game for ASU. In fact, it will likely have them determined to make a statement in this game. The talent for ASU is there and the time is now! USC is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. ASU is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games at Sun Devil Stadium. Both trends hold true on Saturday night, as we collect with our top play!
Arizona State Sun Devils 28, USC Trojans 17

10 Unit Play. #126 Take Atlanta Falcons over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC)
The return of Michael Vick to the Atlanta marks the best game on the docket in week two of the NFL regular season. The Falcons got off to a slow start in Week 1 by getting pounded by the Chicago Bears, but I look for them to bounce back in a big way at home. Matt Ryan has one of the best home records in football when he starts behind center and expect another strong performance tonight in a game that they must have.
The Eagles are a self-proclaimed dream team with numerous free agent signings this season, but I just am not sold on Michael Vick as a true passer. Vick used his legs in game one, but that came against the Rams. Atlanta has a much better defense than St. Louis and they will force Vick to beat them through the air. The Eagles are just 7-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 23 games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Atlanta is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a straight-up loss. When good teams face one another in the NFL, generally the team that needs it more, gets it. That will hold true yet again on Sunday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons 28, Philadelphia Eagles 24

10 Unit Play. #8 Take Clemson Tigers over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 12 pm ABC)

Revenge Game of the Year. This Auburn team continues to roll and will enter Death Valley on a 16 game winning streak. No doubt that a team has to be good to accomplish this; however, luck does play a part in this game and the Auburn Tiger

10 Unit Play. #117 Take Dallas Cowboys over New York Jets (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC)
The Jets had high expectations last season and laid an egg in their home opener against the Baltimore Ravens and it would not surprise me if history repeats itself again this Sunday. The Cowboys have stayed under the radar but I feel that they are no healthy and ready to make a run in the NFC East this season. I am still not sold on this Jets offense, especially QB Mark Sanchez.
Tony Romo is now healthy after his injury last season and he still has numerous playmakers to spread the football around too. Dallas hired a Ryan as their defensive coordinator this season and that should help solidify this side of the football as well. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog. The Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Both trends hold true on Sunday, as this game goes down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes out on top.
Dallas Cowboys 17, New York Jets 16

10 Unit Play. #45 Take Toledo Rockets over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 12 pm Big Ten Network)
Last week

4-Unit Play. Take #209 SMU over Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 4)
These spots are just made for June Jones. He was a thorn in the side of BCS teams when he was at Hawaii and he is a thorn in their side now. This is a lot of points to be laying out to an SMU team that can score with anyone. Sophomore Kyle Padron is much more experienced and comfortable than he was at this time last year and I think he will have a solid game. This same SMU team only lost to TCU - a BCS team - by 25 points on the road last year. They are far more experienced and now that they are in the third year of Jones' system (with eight three-year starters in the lineup) they will be ready to roll. This is an in-state rivalry game and that makes me like the dog even better because this is basically like a bowl game for them.

10 Unit Play. #98 Take Georgia Bulldogs over Boise State Broncos (Saturday 8 pm ESPN)
This is an important game for both teams, but the Bulldogs have a major edge since this game is being played in the state of Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing season in 2010 and it is important that they start off on a good note in 2011 or things could get ugly. Boise State is loaded again with QB Kellen Moore returning to lead the offense, but they will have to replace their top two receivers from last year in Titus Young and Austin Pettis. Georgia has no slouch at quarterback either, as Aaron Murray threw 24 touchdowns last season and only 8 interceptions.
These two teams met in 2005 and Georgia defeated Boise State by a score of 48-13. It will be hard for Georgia to repeat that performance, but I expect their defense to key on stopping the run and I believe that they have the athletes to cover the new Bronco receivers one on one. Georgia pulls this game out late and getting points is too good to pass up.
Georgia Bulldogs 24, Boise State Broncos 21

10 Unit Play. #42 Take Baylor Bears over TCU Horned Frogs (Friday 8 pm ESPN)
TCU has been a darling of the mid-majors the last few years and their Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin put them into national championship contention for 2011. The problem with that is that this year they do not have the guns to back it up. This team was really hit hard by graduation losing 14 of their 22 starters from last year. The main loss is QB Andy Dalton, as he will likely start for the Cincinnati Bengals this year. Now Casey Pachall will be under center and he threw just nine passes in 2011 and has yet to be put in any pressure situations.
They will face a Baylor team that is hungry to put to bed a terrible bowl performance against Illinois last year. This team returns 14 of their 22 starters including QB Robert Griffin III, who threw for over 35 yards last season. The Bears also return their top five wide receivers and if they can protect Griffin, he will be able to move the football on TCU. Defense has always been an issue for Baylor since they pass a lot on offense and that means that their defense is on the field a lot. It will be important for them to get off of the field on third downs and whatever defense can accomplish this will likely be the winner.
Baylor got blown out at TCU last season and will be determined to make sure that does not happen at Floyd Casey Stadium this year. Since 1975, TCU is just 3-9 straight up when playing Baylor in Waco. TCU is just 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Baylor wins this game straight-up and getting points is just icing on the cake.
Baylor Bears 38, TCU Horned Frogs 31

2 Unit Play. #272 Take Cleveland (pk) over Green Bay (Saturday 7:30 pm NFL Network) The Packers are the defending Super Bowl Champions and a very public team. During the preseason the favorite is almost always the home team but one must remember that Green Bay was favored on the road in the NFC Championship Game against Chicago and in the Super Bowl against the Pittsburgh despite being a No. 6 seed in the playoffs. That alone tells you how much of a public team the Packers are and that sets up for a really strong play tonight with the Cleveland Browns.
One of the best theories in the preseason is playing a new head especially if that coach has not been a NFL head coach in his career. That will be the case tonight with Pat Shurmur making his debut after having been an assistant coach in college and the NFL for over 20 years. The Browns were just 5-11 in 2010 and they were ready to clean house and start fresh in 2011. QB Colt McCoy appears to be the No. 1 and expect him to get some playing time in this game, as he needs reps in order to get ready for the start of the season. That is certainly not the case with the Packers, as Aaron Rogers will likely play only sparingly and that leaves back-ups Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell. The Browns also have a serviceable back-up in Seneca Wallace, who played with President Mike Holmgren numerous years in Seattle.
The Packages just do not care about this game evident by the fact they will not be practicing on Friday, instead making a trip to the White House to celebrate their achievement last year. Throw in the fact that their family night was a mess last Saturday in which they were able to play only twenty minutes due to the weather and all this leads me to believe that the Browns will take this game in convincing fashion. Coach Mike McCarthy is just 9-11 straight-up in the preseason and this is certainly a year where he has nothing to prove since they are coming off a Super Bowl Championship. The Browns will have the motivation to make a statement and we will collect with them along the way.

10 Unit Play. #711 Take Dallas over Miami (Sunday 8 pm ABC) It end