Sports Picks & Predictions

10 Unit Play. #238 Take Michigan State Spartans over TCU Horned Frogs (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 12/29, 10:15 pm ESPN) Bowl Game of the Year. The Spartans have battled valiantly all season long losing five games by 4 points or less and I fully expect them to get over the hump in this game and close out the season with a victory in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. The Spartans have a rock solid defense that is 10th in the country in points allowed and I expect them to control the Horned Frogs offense that is not as strong as it has been in year

The Raptors have been playing really well, and Orlando really hasn

10 Unit Play. #542 Take Illinois over Auburn (2:15 pm Big 10 Network) Granted the Illini seem to play up or down to their competition on a game by game basis, but Auburn is terrible and will likely get run out of the United Center on Saturday in the Windy City. Auburn is just 5-6 on the season and they have not played a murder

We have gone against the Clippers in their last two games with less than desirable results. This team has been playing way above its head during this 14-game winning streak. Don

The Clippers have won 13 straight, as everyone knows. This streak has to end some time, and tonight could be as good as any. We were on Phoenix last time out for LA and they just took the night off basically but we are still confident that going against the Clippers to end this streak is the way to go. Teams are (for the most part) going to be giving top effort every night against them and they will have the biggest target on their backs until this streak comes to an end. And even if that doesn

The Clippers are on a 12-0 run and the clear-cut hottest team in the NBA right now. But we think this is a real tricky game for them tonight. This team is going to lose sometime soon, and tonight seems like a night that could happen. The Suns are hot right now, as they have won four of five and they have covered the line in all of those games. The books are starting to post really public spreads on the Clippers, and even with the public aspect factored into the line we thought this one would be closer to 4, so we think there is some excellent value here. And this LA team has one of the biggest

10 Unit Play. #110 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. The Bengals can clinch a playoff berth with a win in Pittsburgh and likely can win the division if they win out, but I just do not see that happening. Pittsburgh has dominated this series of late, winning and covering the spread in their last five meetings with Cincinnati. QB Ben Roethlisberger did not play down the stretch against Dallas, and, thus, the Steelers lost the game, but I expect a much better performance today playing at home. The Steelers also control their own destiny to receive a wild card if they win their last two games against Cincinnati & Cleveland. The Steelers defense has dominated QB Andy Dalton, holding him under 140 yards per game passing. Cincinnati is 4-11 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 17 games against AFC teams. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss in their previous game. Pittsburgh bounces back in a big way and we collect in the process as well.
Pittsburgh by 13

10 Unit Play. #539 Take Arizona State over Texas Tech (2 pm FSN SW) I must admit that I am shocked that Coach Herb Sendek turned this program around thus far in 2012/2013 as he entered the season squared on the hot seat. But he hired a couple of NBA guys as assistant coaches and the team is off to an impressive 9-2 start although their schedule has not been that challenging. This will be their first true road game of the season; however, United Spirit Arena will likely be half empty and will not provide much of a home court edge for the home team. The Red Raiders have been in disarray with an interim coach and not much talent on the roster. They are 5-3 on the season but have yet to leave Lubbock and do not shoot it well at all from the field, especially the 3-point line (27%). They have lost three of their last 4 games with their only win during this span coming against Northern Kentucky (whoever that is). Granted, they did lose by just 4 points to Alabama this week, but that is misleading since they never led in that game and trailed by as much as twenty points. ASU has turned the corner and will only get better as the season goes and will pull away late to win this game with ease. Texas Tech is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

This Washington team has been real scrappy lately. Besides a blowout loss to Miami in a huge revenge spot for the Heat this team has been defying oddsmakers expectations lately (they are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games with the only ATS loss that blowout against Miami). But the main reason we like this play is that we just think this Orlando team has no business being such a big favorite over any team. This squad has been overachieving a bit. But they have been thriving in the role of the underdog, but now they are the favorite. And a heavy favorite at that. This is the first time in the last 13 games that this team has even been favored. We just don

The Suns are not a very good team. We don

10 Unit Play. #34/#330 Take New England Patriots over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 12/16, 8:25 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. The Patriots are coming off a dominating performance on Monday Night Football against the best team in the AFC and now are set to tackle one of the best teams in the NFC in primetime. New England is a beast when they play at home, and I expect young quarterback Colin Kaepernick to struggle mightily in this hostile environment. New England has won 7 straight games, and this team just does not lose games during the month of December. They have lost just one home game on the season, and that came with a missed field goal as time expired against Arizona in Week 2. QB Tom Brady is putting up MVP numbers with 29 touchdowns, and he will have no problem moving the football against the San Francisco defense. I feel San Francisco will struggle to score points in this game, especially if they get down early and do not create turnovers on defense. New England just does not turn over the football, as they lead the league in fewest turnovers. New England is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games following a MNF game in their previous outing. Lay the wood with the better team on Sunday Night Football!
New England by 14

NBA Game of the Week: The Spurs are the best ATS team in the league and they are continually given disrespect by oddsmakers. We think that is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 13, and we still think the Spurs might cover that number as we expect blow-out city tonight. Boston is coming into this one on a back-to-back. This team has a history of being horrible in back-to-backs and they are just 2-3-1 ATS this season. Last night they lost by double-digits in Houston and we just don

I am sure this line is so low because the public thinks the Lakers are

We have had our eyes on this game for awhile and we figured that the spread would be low. This one looks like a double-digit victory for the Clippers in every way to us. With the Clippers coming in on a back-to-back and playing on the road, there is only so many points the bookies can post for them here. But this is the deepest team in the league and this back-to-back should be no problem if the Clippers come to play. And since Chris Paul told the LA Times that this is a

Golden State has been one of the early surprises in the NBA this season. They are right in the playoff mix in the Western Conference and they are an amazing 7-4 on the road so far. However, if you look at their road schedule they have played some lousy teams. They are now entering a favorite role against some of these bad teams. We just don

10 Unit Play. #24/#106 Take Washington Redskins over Baltimore Ravens
(Sunday, 12/9, 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Washington
The Redskins are coming off a victory on Monday Night Football in a game that they had to have, and now they are firmly in the playoff hunt with a record of 6-6. RG3 continues to play outstanding and he has the ability to beat teams with his arm and his legs. Washington has won three straight games against NFC East teams, and expect them to put forth a good effort against a fellow Beltway team. Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
Baltimore
The Ravens are 9-3 on the season but are coming off an embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh at home without Big Ben. Baltimore should be on a two-game losing streak were it not for the ineptitude of the San Diego Chargers failing to stop a fourth-and-29. I have never been a big fan of QB Joe Flacco, and he has not played well the last two games throwing just two touchdowns and a ton of passes. The Ravens are still banged up on defense, and that does not bode well when facing a quarterback as dynamic as RG3. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
Final Comment
I truly believe that these two teams are heading in opposite directions and that the Ravens will be a quick out in the playoffs come January. RG3 stays hot and Washington wins their fourth straight game on Sunday.
Washington by 8

Dallas is a bit overrated right now. This new mix of players just doesn

Detroit is definitely a team that is underrated right now in our eyes. And this line comes as a bit of a shock as we expected the Pistons to be favored by 2-3 points. Detroit has a few things going for it tonight. They have played pretty well at home this season at 5-3. They have also covered four of their last five games here. This team has been incredibly healthy this season and their injury report is once again bare for this game. That is pretty rare in this league and it gives them an added edge to have their full complement of players available for this game. The Pistons have been playing fantastic defense lately and have held their last four opponents to an average of just 85 PPG. The Warriors are just not a good road team and they have played a home-heavy schedule recently. They haven

10 Unit Play. #758 Take Illinois over Western Carolina (8 pm BTN com) I have been a very big fan of this Illinois team thus far and it appears that the players are responding well to their new head coach. The Illini are 8-0 on the season and 6 of those victories have come by double digits. They have much better talent than Western Carolina, a team that has been blown out by so-so teams such as Western Kentucky and a rebuilding Wichita State. Illinois is scoring close to 80 points per game and that will allow them to cover this big number and allow us to collect in the process as well. Illinois has 4 players averaging over 11 points per game and that balance will be too much for the Catamounts to overcome. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Tuesday. Western Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss in their previous game.

10 Unit Play. #39/#349 Take Indianapolis Colts over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 12/2, 1 pm, CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Indianapolis
The Colts just continue to get the job done especially against bad teams and getting points is too good to pass up on Sunday. Indianapolis has won 5 of their last 6 games and QB Luck is putting up solid passing numbers and should have no problem picking apart the Lions secondary. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 December games.
Detroit
The Lions keep finding ways to lose games and all of these losses have caught up to them and they will throw in the towel for their December games. Expect major changes for next season, as their coach has proven time and time again that he is incompetent evident by the fact he threw a challenge flag that negated a review last week against Houston. Detroit is a one dimensional team that cannot run the football at all and thus the Colts will focus on the passing attack. Detroit is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf.
Final Comment
The Lions cannot get out of their own way and they only have 4 wins on the season. Only one of their four wins was a blowout and that came against Jacksonville, one of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis continues to be undervalued by the line makers and we will ride them on Sunday for yet another top play victory in the NFL.
Indianapolis by 7

10 Unit Play. #610 Take Washington State over Portland (10:30 pm PAC-12 Network) Top NCAA Hoops Play of the Day. The Cougars have been good to us over the last two years including this week and we will ride them again on Saturday night at home against an inferior opponent. Wazzou is 4-0 at Beasley Coliseum and Portland is 0-3 in road games. The Cougars have won 11 of the 13 meetings with the Pilots and the last 4 meetings have all been by double digits. Washington State did not shot that well against Idaho on Wednesday and still won by 9 points. Expect them to improve their 3-point shooting tonight and they have played rock solid defense all season long. Portland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against PAC-12 teams. Washington State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against WCC teams.

10 Unit Play. #33/#337 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Big Ten Championship Game, Saturday, 12/1, 8 pm FOX) Top College Football Play of the Weekend
Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are clearly the second best team in the Big Ten and despite a couple of shaky performances against UCLA and Ohio State, they earned their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Huskers went 7-1 during Big Ten play and that included a victory over Wisconsin back in September. Nebraska is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.
Wisconsin
This selection is more about going against Wisconsin, as the fan base has no confidence in their head coach. Wisconsin has not had an answer when they have to throw the football and if they cannot run the ball; their offense will struggle to move the football. The Wisconsin defense is solid, but Nebraska picked up them apart in the second half of their first meeting and we fully expect them to pick up right where they left off. Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
Final Comment
The Badgers have proven all season long that they can beat up on the bad teams (there are a bunch of them in the Big Ten) but struggle to beat the top tier teams. Wisconsin is one dimensional and that will not get the job done against Nebraska. The Huskers are excited to be in this game compared to the Badgers that know they are only in this game by default.
Nebraska by 20

Miami has kind of been on cruise control to start the season and, even so, they have been winning. They haven

10 Unit Play. #766 Take Washington State over Idaho (10 pm PAC-12 Network) We used the Cougars numerous times last year for 7-unit plays and will ride them yet again against an inferior opponent playing at Beasley Coliseum. Washington State also leads the all-time series 161-106, including wins in 15 of the last 17 meetings. Idaho's last win in the series came in 2002. I am a big fan of Brock Motum and he is clearly the best player on the floor this evening and expect him to go off for close to 20 points. Wazzou is getting it done on the defensive side of the floor allowing less than 60 points per game. The Cougars are 3-0 at home this season and all three games have been blowouts. Idaho played well for 20 minutes against New Mexico before falling apart in the second half and that is how we expect this game to go as well. The refs will not give Idaho many calls and thus you can expect a big discrepancy in free throws for the home team. Washington State returns three starters off of a squad that won 7 PAC-12 games last year. Washington State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Best of Luck

10 Unit Play. #759 Take Boston College over Penn State (9:15 pm ESPN U) This play is more about going against Penn State, as I do not believe that they will win many games especially now since they lost their all everything player in Tim Frazier. He led the Lions in points, rebounds, assists, and steals last season and you just cannot replace that type of player and expect to have any success. The Lions did beat Bucknell last Friday night, but there stats were very telling, as they shot just 45% from the free throw line and just 5 for 31 from the field in the first half. Penn State is 1-4 in their last 5 games against ACC teams. The Lions are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Not much good can be said about Boston College, since they are coming off a home loss to Bryant College on Saturday. But this team does have a couple of good players led by Ryan Anderson and he has too much talent to be playing this poorly. He is coming off an injury and I would expect his play to improve over the last couple of games. Boston College did beat Auburn and took Charleston (on the road) and Baylor to the wire. They have more talent than does Penn State and getting this many points is too good to pass up. Penn State folded in epic proportions when Frazier went down against Akron losing by 25 points despite having a 4 point lead in the second half. This will be a low scoring game that goes down to the wire and I can see the winning margin being less than 4 points. Getting this many points is too good to pass up, as the Eagles won it outright.

We had to resist taking the Wizards last time out against the Spurs because that was not a good matchup for them but this game looks real good for the Wizards to get their first win of the season. Washington didn

10 Unit Play. #144/#244 Take New York Giants over Green Bay Packers
(Sunday, 11/25, 8:25 pm NBC)
New York
The Giants are coming off a much needed bye week and this is a very important game for them to end their November slump. I just believe that the Giants are a great pick in this game since they can exploit the Packers injuries on defense. New York has two great wide receivers and a solid quarterback in Eli Manning that has a knack for winning games late in the fourth quarter. New York scored 38 points on a healthy Packers defense last year in the playoffs and expect more of the same in this night game at MetLife Stadium. New York is 9-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
Green Bay
The Packers were very fortunate to escape Detroit last week with a win and a cover for us! That being said, the team is decimated by injuries and all they have on offense in a great quarterback and an up and coming wide receiver. That will not get the job done against a team as good as the New York Giants. The Giants have a great front four and they will be able to put pressure on QB Rogers since they will not have to worry about a running game. Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory in the previous game.
Final Comment
This line is at least three points to low and expect the Giants to take it to the Packers for 60 minutes. New York has lost two straight games and has Dallas lurking right behind them. Again when good teams play late in the season, generally the team that needs it more gets the game and the Giants need this one since it is a home game and they do not want to lose three straight games. Play the home team laying the low wood!
New York by 13

The reasoning behind this one in simple. These teams played last night in Utah. When teams play in these back-to-back, home-and-home situations, the team that lost the night before on the road almost always comes back and wins the second game. The Kings played pretty well last night. They led by as many as 13 in the game while Utah

10 Unit Play. #752 Take Duke over Louisville (9:30 pm NBC Sports Network) This is the match-up that tournament officials were hoping for and everything came to fruition and this should be an exciting game from start to finish. That being said, I believe that the Blue Devils are firing on my cylinders at the moment and Duke has an outstanding record in non-conference holiday tournaments and expect that to continue on Saturday. Duke leads the all-time series over Louisville, 4-3. Both teams defend really well and a score in the high sixties may win this game. We have used Duke in the previous two games and fully expect to complete the Trifecta on Saturday night.
Best of Luck

10 Unit Play. #71/#155 Take Illinois Fighting Illini over Northwestern Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/24, 12 pm Big Ten Network) Top College Football Play of the Weekend
Illinois
Make no bones about it, this has been the most disappointing team in the conference as they currently sit at 2-9 on the season and 0-7 in the Big Ten. But they are allowing just over 30 points per game and getting this many points in a rivalry game is very inviting. Illinois did beat the Wildcats last season by three points and talent wise they just match-up really well with their opponent. Illinois has covered this posted number in four of their last six games and they should be able to run the football a little in this game against Northwestern.
Northwestern
The Cats are looking to finish out the Big Ten with a 5-3 record and all that they have to do is win this game against their in-state rival. The Cats are not the offensive juggernaut they have been in recent years and they are getting it done in 2012 with a more traditional style and thus their scoring is way down. They are scoring just under 30 points per game and that does not bode well when trying to cover this big of a number. Northwestern is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Final Comment
Northwestern has never been a good team to play as a big favorite and because of their ATS success this season this number is really inflated. Illinois has a first year head coach looking to end the season on a high note and expect his players to go all out in this game. Northwestern is banged up after an emotional game last week against Michigan State and thus they will take this game lightly.
Northwestern by 6

The Clippers are a great team this season, there is no doubt about that. They have faced a lot of probable playoff teams, including these Spurs, and they took care of business in all of those games. However, this team has played a home-heavy schedule thus far with only two road games this season, and one of those was a

While the Pistons have a horrible record, they have been playing better. They have now covered four of their last six games and we think they are a live dog tonight. This Boston team has always been lousy on back-to-backs. And not only are they on a back-to-back tonight but this will be their fourth game in five nights. We think the pistons are primed for the upset tonight. Detroit has won and covered the last two meetings between these teams. Boston has big matchups with OKC and San Antonio coming up and they might not give 100% in this game. The Pistons have had a road-heavy schedule to start the season with seven of their 10 games coming away from home. While this is not a good team by any stretch of the imagination we think they are more competitive than their record might indicate and we think they will be playing for the win tonight. We think with Boston

10 Unit Play. #734 Take Penn State over Akron (1:30 pm ESPN U) No team from the MAC should be favored against a Big Ten team especially since the Nittany Lions have the best player on the floor in Tim Frazier. As far as the all-time series is concerned, the Nittany Lions have taken four straight from Akron and win number 5 will come this afternoon in Puerto Rico. I expect the Nittany Lions to control the tempo of this game and keep the scoring down and take this game right down to the wire. Getting this many points in a game that will likely be played in the low sixties is too good to pass up. The Zips have some size, but that only bodes well in the MAC and not against the size of Big Ten players. The Big Ten is the best conference in the country this season and the bottom half flexes their muscles on Sunday and we collect big in the process as well.

Best of Luck

10 Unit Play. #115/#413 Take Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 11/18, 1 pm FOX) NFC Game of the Year
Green Bay
The Packers are coming off a much needed bye and that will allow this team to get some key players healthy. The Packers have taken off since the debacle at Seattle winning five of their last six games and that includes road victories at St. Louis and Houston. Green Bay has dominated Detroit in recent years covering 9 of the last 12 meetings (1 push). Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the NFC North. QB Aaron Rogers loves to play in domes as over the last two years he has tallied a 19-1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Detroit
The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss at Minnesota (without Percy Harvin) and their season is all but over as they sit in last place in the competitive NFC North. The Lions have played just one home game since October 1st and this brutal stretch has really taken its toll on this team. Detroit has not faced that many elite quarterbacks this season and certainly not one that is as talented as Aaron Rogers. The Lions have a running game that is non-existent and their passing game has not been as effective as it was last year. Detroit is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC teams.
Final Comment
The Packers have owned this series over the last two decades and today will be no different . Green Bay went into Detroit last November and won 27-15 and the also Lions failed to beat the Packers in Green Bay to end the regular season. In that game the Packers rested numerous players including QB Aaron Rogers. Green Bay just has their number and that will continue on Sunday.
Green Bay by 13

There is no doubting that Indiana has gotten off to a slow start. Their offense has been slow to materialize and at 4-6 it has been a disappointing start to the season. However, the Pacers seemed to emerge from their funk last time out and destroyed Dallas at home by 20. Even though the Pacers miss star Danny Granger, this is still a team that is built to be one of the main contenders in the east. This team is all about team basketball and that was a reason for their success last year. This team is more than one player. We feel like the positive momentum will carry over into this contest. While they no doubt have a nice team in New York, we don

We think this is the perfect situation for the 0-7 Wizards to get off the shnide and finally get their first win of the season. First of all, Washington is well rested. They have had two days off to prepare for this game and are no doubt ready to get their first win on the year. Utah comes in on a back-to-back after a loss in Philly and this team will be playing its third road game in four nights tonight. When you look at the Jazz

The party in New York has to end sometime, and we think tonight is the night. New York is the ultimate public team, right behind the Lakers as the team year in and year out that the public loves to bet on regardless of record or on-court performance. Now that the Knicks are 6-0, the public frenzy is at an all-time high. But we think this is a real bad spot for the Knicks tonight. They are coming in off a back-to-back after a come-from-behind win last night in San Antonio while the Grizzlies are coming in off a night

This was going to be a Game of the Month type play for us if the line had stayed pat at

Both teams are missing their best player here: John Wall for Washington and Gerald Henderson for the Bobcats. We just think that overall the Wizards are a better team here, despite the record of the two teams, and that they should be a slight favorite in this game. This Washington team is 0-5. This is not anywhere near a playoff team but also not the worst team in the league

10 Unit Play. #136/#238 Take Chicago Bears over Houston Texans
(Sunday, 11/11, 8:25 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Chicago
The Bears put forth a dominating performance last Sunday in Tennessee (we used them as a selection) and expect them to follow that up with a strong performance this Sunday at home against the best team in the AFC. Chicago has played a very easy schedule thus far and things will get much tougher in the coming week with a road trip to San Francisco on the horizon. The Bears have a dominating defense that can force a turnover on any given play and Houston has not seen a defense this strong in quite some time. QB Cutler has a great relationship with WR Brandon Marshall and this gives Chicago a big play weapon that has been sorely missing for years in the Windy City. Chicago is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played during the month of November.
Houston
The Texans sit atop the standing in the AFC with a 7-1 record but their only loss came via a blowout to another team from the NFC North. Houston has played just one tough team on the road this season and that came at Denver before Peyton Manning started to take off. Houston did not look that impressive last week at home against Buffalo and it would not surprise me if they come into this game overconfident. I truly believe that the loss of Brian Cushing at linebacker will eventually catch-up with this team and hurt their chances to win games in the playoffs.
Final Comment
Both teams are playing outstanding football at the moment and this is a game that is must see TV. That being said, I am not a big believer in Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, as neither coach has won big games on a consistent basis. Chicago will not get all the breaks like they did last week at Tennessee, but they will create enough behind their top ranked defense to win this game at home. Houston

These teams faced each other last week and Boston was thoroughly outplayed by the Bucks, who pulled an 11-point upset. One of the main reasons we like this play is that Boston is coming in on a back-to-back and they are notoriously bad in these situations. This team has just not played up to standard to start the season and we see another mediocre performance here on Saturday night. Boston backers might say revenge is in play here tonight but that is hogwash. These teams have had other opponents since that meeting and Boston is just trying to get its footing in the young season and isn

10 Unit Play. #26/#150 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Penn State Nittany Lions
(Saturday, 11/10, 3:30 pm ABC) Top College Football Play of the Weekend
Nebraska
Nebraska has angered their fan base with two losses already on the season but they are still in great position of earn and spot in Rose Bowl and all they have to do in win their last 4 games on the season. They are 4-1 and have the tie-breaker against Michigan and I do not believe they will face much competition in the Big Ten Championship Game since Ohio State is ineligible. This team is loaded with talent on both sides of the football; they just do not play to that ability on a consistent basis. Nebraska won last year in State College many of those players are still on the roster for both teams. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Penn State
Penn State has done a remarkable job keeping the program afloat. But their 4-1 record in the Big Ten is more about the Big Ten being terrible than it is Penn State being good. The Lions did not perform well against Ohio State and they will likely lose two of their remaining three games. QB Matt McGloin has played well this season but I am still not a believe that he can perform well in big games. Penn State is just 5-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games against team with a winning record.
Final Comment
Nebraska has the Rose Bowl in their sight and Penn State is not the team that will be able to knock them off of their path. When Penn State plays good teams, their depth becomes a major issues and expect Nebraska to take control of this game down the stretch and pull away late to win this game by double digits.
Nebraska by 19

The Clippers come into this one having lost two straight. However, we predicted they would slump after playing two intense games to start the season. In their wins against Memphis and the Lakers, both at Staples Center, the Clippers played with playoff intensity against the team in played a tough 7-game series against last year in the Grizzlies and a Lakers team that is their main rival. They were bound to have a letdown against Golden State and Cleveland and they lost both of those games. Now they face the team that swept them in the second round of the playoffs last season. While we think revenge is a way overrated handicapping angle in the NBA. However, it does come into play in certain situations and we think this is one of them. The Clippers were embarrassed in that playoff series. They were real banged up after their physical series with Memphis and they faced a Spurs team that was on the top of its game, playing their best basketball of the season. Not to mention that this Spurs team is full of playoff vets and that the Clippers were entering their first foray into the playoffs with this roster. The Clippers got better in the offseason and now they have one of the deepest benches, if not THE deepest, in the NBA. While Blake Griffin is banged up the team is still healthier than they were in the playoffs last season when these teams met. Most of all the Clippers have shown this year that they can get up for big games. When there is

Don

10 Unit Play. #134/436 Take New York Giants over Pittsburgh Steelers
(Sunday, 11/4, 4:25 pm CBS) Top NFL Selection of the Weekend
New York
The Giants have been on quite a roll winning four straight games to move to 6-2 on the season and now face a tough inter-conference opponent in Pittsburgh. New York has a dominating offense that is sixth in the league in passing and 12th in the league in rushing. QB Eli Manning is having an outstanding season with 12 touchdown passes already and has been money throughout his career in the 4th quarter. Granted this team seems to play better on the road then they do at home, but they are facing a depleted Pittsburgh team that is just a mirror of its former self. New York is 9-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers have won two straight games against non-playoff teams to move to 4-3 on the season but they are still decimated with injuries. WR Mike Wallace has yet to really impressive me much and has not regained his form from year

Just think this is way too many points for Miami to be laying to a very good Denver team. We thought this spread should be close to 6 and we would have looked at Denver in that spot, too. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back. The Nuggets are built better to weather lack of rest with a much depper bench than the Heat. This Denver team can throw a lot of different looks at opponents and we think that they play real well in this game. The Heat have been known to go through the motions at certain points in the regular season. Coming off a big game at New York last night we just don

10 Unit Play. #94/#374 Take Cincinnati Bearcats over Syracuse Orange
(Saturday, 11/4, 12 pm Big East Network) Top College Play of the Weekend
Cincinnati
The Bearcats started the season 5-0 but now sit at 5-2 with back-to-back losses to Toledo and Louisville. Cincinnati played well at Louisville in terrible conditions and expect them to bounce back in a big way today since they have not played a home game since October 13th. The Bearcats are 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread in this series against Syracuse. They won at Syracuse last year by 17 points and that was without their starting quarterback Zach Collaros. Munchie Legaux is now under center and he has the ability to beat teams with his arm or his legs. He has thrown and run for a touchdown in four straight games and expect him to pick apart this Orange defense. Cincinnati has covered 7 of their last 9 games.
Syracuse
The Cuse have turned the corner after a slow start to the season having won three of their last four games but that will come to an end in a big way on Saturday. As we mentioned Syracuse has had no success against Cincinnati and they are not a strong offensive team scoring just 26.8 points per game (73rd). They lost to Rutgers and must play Cincinnati and Louisville in consecutive weeks. The Orange are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Final Comment
Syracuse is set to leave the Big East after this school year and you can bet the remaining teams are ready to knock them around whenever they get the chance. Cincinnati has dominated this series and Syracuse is a team that has never handled prosperity well. The Orange are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory in their previous game. Cincinnati earns some Big East pride and we collect big in the process as well.
Cincinnati by 20

We had this game handicapped at Golden State -2. We think the Warriors are the much better team here. While most lump these teams together at the bottom of the Western Conference we think the Warriors are a team that

10 Unit Play. #122/#230 Take Detroit Lions over Seattle Seahawks
(Sunday, 10/28, 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Detroit
The Lions did everything possible to get blown out last week on MNF against Chicago, but their defense played outstanding and we expect them to return home and play much better against a team that traditionally struggles on the road. Detroit allowed just 13 points to the Bears and three of those points were the direct result of a muffed punt. The Lions offense moved the ball against the Bears defense in the second half, they just killed themselves inside the five yard line by not being able to run the football. They will have a much easier time this week since they are a home playing a team with a young quarterback that is just being asked not to lose the game. Detroit is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of October.
Seattle
The Seahawks have some impressive wins this season at home, but they have not done any damage on the road. I still believe that they are starting the wrong player at quarterback in Russell Wilson, as he played terrible against San Francisco last Thursday completing just 9 of 23 passes with no touchdowns. Seattle is 9-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 30 road games.
Final Comment
Both teams are coming off losses in low scoring games last week, but I believe that the Detroit defense got their mojo back, especially their front four. The loss of WR Nate Burleson will sting, but not enough to prevent the Lions from winning this game big. If they can shut down QB Jay Cutler and home they can certainly shutdown Russell Wilson playing on the road.
Detroit by 13

10 Unit Play. #110/#170 Take Arizona Wildcats over USC Trojans
(Saturday, 10/27, 3:30 pm ABC/ESPN 2)
Arizona
The Rich Rod era is well underway in Tucson and for the most part it has been a success as the Wildcats are on pace to make a bowl game despite having to learn a new system. Arizona averages over 350 yards per game passing and they have only been blown out one time this season and that came against Oregon. Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of October.
USC
The Trojans were the No. 1 team in the land to start the season but they have not played like it this season. They have struggled on the road this season in four games and they have yet to blow out anybody on the road despite playing mediocre teams (Syracuse, Washington, Utah, & Stanford (L)). USC is 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games played during the month of October.
Final Comment
I am just not a believer in Lane Kiffin and never like to use the Trojans as a favorite because of him. Arizona will be ready for this game and expect Rich Rod to develop a few wrinkles that will surprise the Trojans. The home crowd has been waiting for years to get excited and I believe that this Wildcat team can deliver the goods.
Arizona by 3

10 Unit Play. #62/#356 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Purdue Boilermakers
(Saturday, 10/20, 12 pm ABC) Big Ten Game of the Year
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have one of the most explosive offensives in the country and we fully expect them to pick apart this Purdue defense and score close to 60 points. This will allow them to cover this big number and I really believe this is a game where Coach Urban Meyer can just name his score. Coach Meyer is one of the best offensive minds in the entire country and he has a great leader in QB Braxton Miller, my sleeper pick for the Heisman Trophy. Ohio State is 8th in the country running the football and expect them to put forth similar numbers to what Wisconsin did last week in West Lafayette. The defense has given up points and yards including a surprising 49 points to Indiana last week. That performance bodes well for us in this game, since Coach Meyer will let the defense have it all week and expect a much better performance on Saturday against a team that has thrown in the towel. Ohio State is 44-19 ATS (1 push) in their last 64 Big Ten games.
Purdue
Well I must admit that I was way off the mark with Purdue, as this team is terrible and belongs at the bottom of the conference standing. Purdue had a golden opportunity to make a statement that they are a top team in the Big Ten with back-to-back home games against Michigan & Wisconsin. But they laid an egg in both of those games and now must go on the road to play the best team in the conference. In that Wisconsin game three quarterbacks threw six or more passes and the old adage is true, if you have more than one quarterback, that means you do not have any good quarterbacks. Purdue is 10-26 ATS (1 push) in their last 37 games played during the month of October.
Final Comment
Purdue has certainly shown that they are a pretender and we will likely go against them for rest of the Big Ten Conference season. They cannot stop the run and things will only get worse from here in this run heavy conference. Coach Meyer has shown in the past he is not afraid to run up the score and expect that to occur in this game. Ohio State will play much better on defense and this will be a 30-point woodshed beating.
Ohio State by 35

10 Unit Play. #113/#221 Take St. Louis Rams over Miami Dolphins
(Sunday, 10/14, 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
St. Louis
The Rams are coming off a mine-bye week having not played a game since 10/4 and expect them to be ready to go Sunday in South Beach. Coach Jeff Fischer has gotten this team over the .500 mark for the first time in years and they have a new attitude in 2012. They have played a tough schedule this season and they were only blown out one time and that came against the one loss Chicago Bears. This team is getting it done on the defensive side of the football allowing just 16 total points in their last two games. This is not a strong Miami offense and I believe that they will struggle to score 17+ points. St. Louis has covered 5 of their last 6 games.
Miami
The Dolphins are coming off a surprise road victory in Cincinnati last week to move to 2-3 on the season. But they fact remains they are not a good enough team to be laying points against anybody in the league. This team gives up a ton of passing yards, but is good at stopping the run. I expect Sam Bradford to have a good day throwing the football. Miami is happy to return home after back-to-back road games, as they have not played a home game since 9/23. QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown just two touchdowns on the season against six interceptions. Miami is 22-50 ATS (1push) in their last 73 home games.
Final Comment
This is a game between two defensive minded teams and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up. Twenty points may win this game and St. Louis will accomplish that feat behind a strong offense that has great balance with a run/pass option. It is hard to not side with Jeff Fisher when it comes to coaching in big games and that experience will propel the Rams to a victory.
St. Louis by 6

10 Unit Play. #20/#130 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 10/13, 12 pm Big Ten Network) Revenge Game of the Year
Purdue
Purdue is coming off a disappointing showing last week at home against Michigan, but that performance sets up well this week, as the coaches will get the players attention for this game. Throw in the fact that Purdue lost to Wisconsin last season by a score of 62-17 and you can be sure that revenge will be on the minds of each and every one of the Purdue players. This is Coach Danny Hope

10 Unit Play. #122/#414 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Philadelphia Eagles
(Sunday, 10/7, 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Pittsburgh
The Steelers are coming off a much needed bye week and look to get back on track at home. They are 1-2 on the season and cannot afford to drop to 1-3 since Baltimore and Cincinnati appear to be playoff teams yet again in 2012. Pittsburgh has played just one home game this season and won that convincingly. Pittsburgh is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games when they are coming off a loss in their previous game.
Philadelphia
The Eagles are living on the edge at the moment with a 3-1 record but their three wins came by a combined four points. Truth is that Michael Vick is not a good fit for Andy Reid

10 Unit Play. #56/#394 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Nebraska Cornhuskers
(Saturday, 10/6, 8 pm ABC) Top College Play of the Weekend
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are the best team in the Big Ten this season and they are coming off an impressive victory at Michigan State last Saturday. They have the most dynamic quarterback in the league in Braxton Miller and expect him to put up big numbers tonight against this suspect Cornhusker defense. Ohio State is 43-18 (1 push) in their last 62 Big Ten Conference games.
Nebraska
The Huskers disappointed us last weekend as they played a terrible first 33 minutes of the game before they dominated Wisconsin in the last 27 minutes. They will face a much tougher defense tonight in a hostile environment. Nebraska has not handled prosperity fell going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when they won their previous game straight-up.
Final Comment
Ohio State will have revenge on their minds in this game, as they gave up a late lead last year in Lincoln and that was with a lame duck coach. Their coaching staff is much better this season led by Urban Meyer and Bo Pelini is not in the same league as him when it comes to performing well in big games.
Ohio State by 14

10 Unit Play. (#105/#205) Take New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills
(Sunday, 9/30, 1 pm CBS)
New England
The Pats sit at 1-2 on the season, and this is a must-win game for them in order to get back on track and salvage the season. The Bills should be the perfect recipe for them to accomplish this, as New England has won 16 of the last 17 meetings against Buffalo. The New England offense is firing on all cylinders at the moment, as they scored 30 points against a strong Baltimore team. New England has always bounced back well after losses, going 35-16-1 in their last 52 games following a loss in their previous game.
Buffalo
The Bills have had a very easy schedule to open the season, playing three teams that will likely not be making the playoffs. They were able to win two of those games, and a win today against New England would put them in good shape when it comes to the AFC East standings. But I do not expect that to happen, as their offense is not strong enough to threaten this suspect Patriots defense. Buffalo has just covered 1 of their last 6 games against AFC East teams.
Final Comment
Buffalo has had no success against the Patriots over the last decade, and that will again be the case on Sunday. Buffalo fell apart last year after a hot start and they just do not seem to handle prosperity well. Expect New England to dominate this game from start to finish giving them a much-needed victory.

10 Unit Play. (#86/#182) Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 9/29, 8 pm ABC) College Game of the Year

Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have rebounded nicely after a disappointing performance in Los Angeles with back-to-back blowout wins against inferior competition. I do not believe that Wisconsin will be able to provide much more of a challenge than did Southern Miss, Idaho State, & Arkansas State. Nebraska is healthy as a team with Rex Burkhead back rushing for over 100 yards last week. The key to this game for Big Red will by the play of QB Taylor Martinez, as he had a game to forget when these two teams met last year in Madison. He has worked at throwing the football better all summer long and the early results have come, as he has nine touchdowns and only one interception this season. Nebraska has covered 4 straight home games.
Wisconsin
As much as we like Nebraska as a team in this game, most of this selection is based on going against Wisconsin. The Badgers just do not have much talent this season outside of the running back position. QB Danny O

10 Unit Play. (#107/#411) Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins
(Sunday, 9/23, 1 pm CBS)
New York
The Jets come into this game at 1-1 on the season beating the Buffalo Bills at home and then getting pounding by the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The Jets should get help on defense with Darrelle Revis back in the line-up after sitting out last week with a concussion. The road team has been the play in this match-up recently covering four of the last five games in this series. The Jets have a more experienced quarterback in Mark Sanchez and expect their defense to put pressure on rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Miami
The Dolphins are coming off an impressive performance in the home opener after getting blown out in Week 1 at Houston. In that game, Miami failed to score an offensive touchdown and it would not surprise me if that was the case today as well. The fact remains that Miami does not have many playmakers on offense with the exception of Reggie Bush. Their wide receivers are terrible and expect the Jets to put pressure on them for sixty minutes. Miami is just 22-49 ATS (1 push) in their last 72 home games.
Final Comment
This is a divisional game so you can bet both teams are very familiar with one another. Miami does not have a home field advantage whatsoever, so expect the Jets to come in a control tempo for sixty minutes. This is an important game for the Jets and a must win if they have visions of making the playoffs this season. Miami is still in full rebuild mode and is just trying to improve since they have been inept for over a decade.
New York by 13

10 Unit Play. (#14/#326) Take North Carolina over East Carolina Pirates
(Saturday, 9/22, 3:30 pm ESPN U) Top College Football Play of the Weekend
North Carolina
The Tar Heels find themselves at 1-2 on the season but with any luck they could be 3-0. The lost back-to-back road games by a combined total of six points but expect things to be much easier on Saturday facing a weak East Carolina team. The Pirates are not strong on pass defense and expect UNC to have numerous big plays through the air. QB Bryn Renner has been solid this year throwing nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. North Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference USA games.
East Carolina
The Pirates should be an improved team from 2011 since they return a lot of starters and they are coming off a nice victory on the road last week against Southern Miss. But they did not perform well against the only BCS Conference team that they faced in South Carolina, getting blown out in Columbia by a score of 48-10. East Carolina is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against ACC teams.
Final Comment
UNC is ready for some home cooking after back-to-back losses on the road. ECU will be playing their third straight road game and that will take its toll on them. Look for North Carolina to have a field day with their passing attack and I just cannot see the Pirates being able to trade points with them.
North Carolina by 24

10 Unit Play. (#122/#224) Take San Francisco 49ers over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 9/16, 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
San Francisco
The 49ers were a solid team in all phases of the game last season except at throwing to the wide receivers. To correct this the 49ers went out and signed Randy Moss and looked much better in Game 1 of the 2012 season than they did all of last season. QB Alex Smith was asked to be a game manager for most of last season but the handcuffs appear to be taken off of him in 2012. The defense is one of the best in the league, as was evidenced by the fact that they held Aaron Rogers to just two touchdowns. San Francisco is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games overall.
Detroit
The Lions did not look all that impressive in their opening game of the season against a bad St. Louis Rams team. Detroit needed a late touchdown pass just to win the game and a performance like that will not get it done this week on the west coast. The Lions are a lot like Green Bay and that they rely heavily on their passing game and are not an effective team running the football. Detroit is just 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games.
Final Comment
This is a rematch of the awkward hand shake between Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh. Coach Schwartz is a hothead ready to explode at any given time and Coach Harbaugh is just a good coach. It also helps when the better coach has the better players and that will be the case on Sunday afternoon, as the 49ers take care of business.
San Francisco by 14

10 Unit Play. (#42/#140) Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Virginia Cavaliers
(Saturday, 9/15, 3:30 pm ESPN U) Top College Game of the Weekend
Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets should be 2-0 on the season but did not make any plays down the stretch against Virginia Tech in their opener and, thus, need to take care of business the rest of the way in order to keep their championship hopes alive. This is always an important game for Al Groh (DC for Georgia Tech), as he was head coach at Virginia for nine seasons. The triple option is always tough to prepare for, especially when their opponent is coming off a hard-fought victory the week before. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of September.
Virginia
The Cavaliers are 2-0 on the season, but they are lucky to be in this position. Penn State totally outplayed them last week in Charlottesville, but the Nittany Lions missed 4 field goals and an extra point, allowing Virginia to win the game, 17-16. Virginia will have their hands full with this triple option and they did not perform well against it last year, giving up 477 yards on the ground (yet still won the game).
Final Thought
This is a series that has been dominated by the home team, and I do not see that changing this year. The home team is 14-3ATS, and that stat just cannot be ignored. Expect Georgia Tech to rack up big yardage on the ground and coast to a victory in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech by 21

10 Unit Play. #113 Take San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers
(Sunday, 9/6, 4:25 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend

San Francisco
The 49ers have a remarkable turnaround in 2011 and they are the clear cut favorite to repeat as champions in the NFC West Division. Coach Jim Harbaugh was able to get this team to play to its potential especially Alex Smith at the quarterback position. This team has one of the best defenses in the NFL and they will be able to control the strong passing attack of the Packers. The 49ers went 6-2 last year in road games. San Francisco is 14-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 19 games.
Green Bay
The Packers were clearly the best team in the regular season in 2011. Despite this, Green Bay had major weaknesses and that finally caught up with them against the New York Giants in the divisional playoffs. The team struggled to run the football and their defense was among statistical teams in the league. QB Rogers is clearly one of the best in the league and Green Bay has a dynamic passing game that cannot be ignored.
Final Comment
This is clearly a match-up of strengths and weakness, as the 49ers are great on defense and the Packers are great on offense. The 49ers offense and the Packers defense have question marks. I expect this game to go down to the wire and getting over a field goal is too good to pass up. San Francisco by 1.

10 Unit Play. #88 Take Oregon State Beavers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 9/8, 4 pm FX) Top Big Ten Underdog
Oregon State
Oregon State has struggled the last couple of years, but expect an improved squad in 2012 for Coach Mike Reily. The Beavers return 15 starters, and that includes two of the best cover corners in the Pac-12. With Jordan Poyer and Rashaad Reynolds, I expect them to being playing a lot of one-on-one coverage on an island, and this will allow the Beavers to stack the line of scrimmage for the strong Wisconsin running attack. When the Beavers went to Madison last year, they were a depleted team with 8 starters out and they had to play 8 true freshman. I see this team getting back to 8 wins and challenging atop the standing in the Pac-12.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin struggled to put away a FCS opponent last Saturday in Northern Iowa. The Panthers stacked the line of scrimmage and were able to contain the running attack of Wisconsin and not let them get any big plays on the ground. I look for Wisconsin to have more success this week running the football, but this opponent is a much more balanced team. If Wisconsin plays like they did last week, they will lose this game straight up, never mind the point spread. The Badgers have another transfer quarterback in Danny O

10 Unit Play. #52 Take Michigan State Spartans over Boise State Broncos (Friday 8 pm ESPN)

On paper this is one of the biggest games of the weekend. These are two great programs but a deeper look into these team, I see uncertainty on both sides because each of them is trying to replace experienced senior starters at quarterback.

I give Michigan State the edge here. They have eight starters back on a defense that finished No. 5 in the country in yards allowed and No. 10 in the country in scoring last year. That gives Sparty a big advantage, especially in an opening game like this where Boise State is still trying to figure things out. Michigan State really might have the best group of linebackers in the country and they should control this game. The Spartans have been shafted the last two years with regards to receiving a berth in a BSC Bowl and they will take out their frustration in this game. Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Boise State really is a great program. Chris Peterson has done an amazing job. But the Broncos only have about five starters back from last year

10 Unit Play. #271 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Buffalo Bills (Saturday 7 pm local) NFL Preseason Game of the Year. Sometimes the stats are so glaring that one head coach does not care whatsoever about preseason and one head coach wants to win. Chan Gailey has a preseason record of 4-16 and Mike Tomlin has a preseason record of 17-6. Buffalo was everybody

10 Unit Play. #403 Take Cleveland Browns over Green Bay Packers (Thursday 8 pm local) The Packers are favored in this game because they are a public team and have had much more success in the league compared to the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has been a doormat in the league since they came back but one must remember that this is an exhibition game and not a regular season affair. Because of that, the Packers injury problems will be too much for them to overcome. Green Bay is one if not the most injured team in the league at the moment. They just cannot afford any more injuries to their key players and I fully expect them to take a cautious approach in this game. QB Rogers may shine early in this game, but getting over a field goal will eventually allow the Browns to cover and likely win this game straight-up in the second half. Generally the Packers bounce back well after a poor showing in the preseason, but injuries have taken its toll and that will not be the case tonight.

We don

This one is a must-win game for the Thunder and we think OKC is the better team here and we believe that either they will win the game or this one will go Miami

10-unit Play Take #906 New York Mets over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm EST) We generally shy away from playing favorites at this high of a price, but today's game between the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles provides us with an opportunity that we can't pass up. R.A. Dickey of the Mets is currently pitching about as well as a human can possibly pitch. The 38-year old knuckleballer is 10-1 with a 2.20 ERA on the season, but those numbers pale in comparison to what he's done lately. Over his last five starts, Dickey is 5-0 with a 0.23 EA and has a ridiculous 50-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This is probably the most dominant that we've seen a starting pitcher be in the last few years and he seems to be getting even better with each start. Today he goes up against a Baltimore team that hasn't seen him pitch since 2010. The knuckleball is an extremely tough pitch to hit if you haven't seen it in a long time, and that gives Dickey a big advantage in Interleague play.
The Orioles will give it their best shot with Jake Arrieta tonight. Arrieta has had an up and down type of season with the O's at 3-8 with a 5.89 ERA on the 2012 campaign. He's pitching better than this numbers indicate, but he certainly can't be counted on for consistency. Arrieta has already had four starts in which he has given up at least six earned runs. The Mets have hit right-handers well this season and they will be a handful for the young 26-year old. The Orioles have only won one of Arrieta's last five starts, while the Mets have won 16 of Dickey's last 21 starts. As hot as Dickey is right now, the price on this game should be over -200. He has only allowed one earned run in his last five starts and I'd be shocked if he allowed more than one to a team that hasn't faced him in two years. Take the Mets with confidence today.

OKC

The Celtics looked outclassed in Game 6 when they could have closed things out at home, but we are confident they will bounce back after a bad game as they have done all playoffs. Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four after an ATS loss and 13-3-1 in their last 17 after a straight up loss. While it might be a tough one to get a win they have shown the ability to be very competitive on the road this series with two overtime games and a win in Miami. In Game 6 LeBron James dominated for Miami and he had one of the best games in the history of the playoffs. But games like that only come along once or twice in a career and we seriously doubt he is going to be anywhere near as effective in consecutive games. And the rest of the Miami team was decidedly average in Game 6. Boston has been underestimated this entire playoffs and even lots of the regular season and we have no doubt they put up a fight and go down swinging even if they lose this game.

While the Spurs are definitely reeling, we don

Boston has stolen back the momentum from this series as it is now tied up heading back to Miami for Game 5. The Celtics played pretty lousy in their first game of this series after just one night

The Spurs had a couple rare down games in OKC and they let the Thunder come back and tie the series. But we think the Spurs will reclaim their position as the rightful favorite in this series and win Game 5 and take back the momentum here. Granted, we are a little surprised that the Spurs didn

Just think Boston blew their chance in this series by choking away Game 2 when they had a big lead. We know the refs didn

The Spurs are like a freight train that looks unstoppable right now. They have, of course, won 20 straight games. They have failed to cover only four games during that stretch, and one was a push. They have faced every possible situation during this streak and excelled. And this is the only time during this streak when all players were available that they have been listed as underdogs. We really think that this line should be

Boston looked overwhelmed in Game 1, especially in the third quarter where Miami pulled away in the game. However, Boston is a very proud team with the heart of a champion and we don

Game 1 of this series showed exactly why the Spurs have been so dominant down the stretch run of the season and in the playoffs. They were down by nine entering the fourth quarter in a game where they did not play really well throughout. Yet that are able to flip a switch and after a couple minutes of play all the sudden they were up by double digits. We saw the same thing happen in the semis against the Clippers. While the Spurs didn

Just think that the Celtics have great value in this series. They are considered huge underdogs on the series line while we think the line should be much closer. The Celtics beat the Heat three out of four meetings this season and their average margin of victory in those three games was 13 points. The one loss was all the way back in December when teams were still getting their footing after the extended NBA Lockout. We think this series will be really close throughout and if the Celtics keep getting lines like this throughout then we will have to take a serious look at them in each game. Also, with Chris Bosh likely to miss this game (if he is able to go we assume he will not be anywhere near full effectiveness). That will only benefit the Celtics who have some players that can do damage down low. But most of all we just think that the Celtics are the best defensive team in the league and that gives them a real chance here. If they can protect the ball and keep Miami away from easy transition baskets this should be a real close game. It would not at all surprise us if the Celtics stole one in Miami early in this series. But we also like the under here as both teams are Top 5 in defense and we think both teams flex their defensive muscle in Game 1.

As we have stated before, we think the Spurs are the best team in the NBA by a wide margin. This should still be a good series and the Thunder will probably win at home but we think they are going to have a real tough time in San Antonio tonight against this veteran team. The series price for this one is more than -200 for a reason. We think any line under 7 for the Spurs is good value at home here. The Spurs won two of three meetings this season and both wins were by nine or more. OKC

The Sixers have covered three of four games in this series and we think this one is just too close for the Celtics to be laying this many points. Both games in Boston were decided by one point in this series and we think the Sixers can keep this one close. We went with Boston on the road in Philly in Game 3 since the Sixers have had trouble at home with top teams this season but Boston has just not been good this season in this point spread range as they are 7-16 ATS this season when a favorite of between 4 and 6.5 points. The Sixers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston and we just feel this is going to be another game that goes down to the last shot and also this one looks to be very low scoring, and when you have a very low scoring games that always makes the points with the dog that much more valuable.

We actually thought this line would come in a bit higher. We actually think there is amazing value on the Spurs up to 8.5. This is just a real mismatch and we are expecting a sweep in this series. The Spurs are playing by far the best basketball in the NBA right now and they are our clear favorite to win it all, especially with the Heat struggling out east. This team is playing the best basketball in crunch time that we have seen in a couple years. The Spurs seem unstoppable right now and the thing we really love about this game is that they seem to be playing every game like it is Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Gregg Popovich has the team playing nearly flawless basketball and they have been covering so many lines because they just don

The odds laid out by the bookies here indicate that the Lakers are expected to take care of business at home. We think that this series looks like a potential sweep. After choking away Game 2 we are just not sure the Lakers heads are in this series. This looks more like a team that doubts itself than the confident championship Lakers teams we have seen in the past. That comeback win from the Thunder might have been the nail in the coffin in this series and we just don

Despite losing home court advantage in Game 2 in Boston, we still think the Celtics are solid favorites to win this series. We expect them to get back on track tonight. Games 1 and 2 were both decided by a single point. We think this one will be close again, but we have the Celtics as a slight favorite and expect them to win this game. In Game 2 Boston had a horrible third quarter and just got too far behind to come back. Give us another minute in that game and we think Boston gets the win. Just think that this is the better team and the one with more clutch players with playoff experience. And although Philly pumped up their record early in the season with home wins over bottom-feeders, this team has had trouble with good teams at home all season. They are just 8-13 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. They have also been lousy as small favorites with a 5-9 ATS record in this spot. And the Celtics have really excelled in their recent games as a small underdog and they are 8-2-1 ATS in this role in the last 11 games. Numbers aside, we just think Boston is the better team and that they will win this series and to do that they will need to get home court advantage back with a win in Philly. And with the veteran experience this team has we think they go after it sooner rather than later and they should win this game tonight.

Just think we are going to see a result similar to the LA Lakers/OKC game last night. The Lakers came in off a tough 7-game series and fell flat against an up-tempo team that had plenty of rest. And for this one not only did the Clippers barely get a chance to catch their breath but they are still hobbled with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul both dealing with injuries that would have likely kept them out for a handful of games each if this were the regular season. And the Spurs come into this one well rested after making quick work of the Jazz in their short first-round series. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA this season and he is going to make the best use of this time off and this is the least likely team in the NBA to come out sluggish after some time off. We get the feeling that the Clippers goal was to win a first-round series this season and get some valuable playoff experience to take with them into next season where a couple editions and full offseason could make them a real contender. They would probably never say this publicly, however. We think the Clippers will play better as this series goes along and they could even steal a win or two at home but we think they are heading right into a buzzsaw tonight in San Antonio and we expect the Spurs to take care of business in a big way. This Spurs team is 12-1-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall and they have been saddled with some serious lines. If they play their game tonight they should not have any problems winning here by double digits.

This is a pretty similar number to what they started up the New York Knicks series with and the Heat covered that number with no problem. But we think the Pacers are a much better team than the Knicks and if the Pacers are playing their best they can definitely keep pace with the Heat in this series. We just don

We liked the Lakers in Game 3 but we are glad we stayed away from that one because the Lakers were down big early and just did not have the time to make up all those points. But we just think the Nuggets are overmatched in this series and we expect the Lakers to win this game tonight and put the Nuggets on the brink of elimination. It is very telling that the bookies made a decent-sized adjustment to this line from Game 3 and the odds are worse for the Lakers even though Denver got a commanding win in Game 3. But with OKC sweeping their series in four games that makes this one more urgent for LA and we think that they bring their A-game tonight after they started off the last one a bit lackadaisical. Road play has been the Lakers achillies heel for most of the season but they got better on the road as the season progressed and this is the team with all the playoff experience and the big-time players that have been here before and got the job done. Just think LA wins big here and just in case the game is close this point spread gives us a little leeway in that situation.

Both of the first two games of this series in OKC have been close and we think this one will be as well. We had this game handicapped at

We have the Clippers for a series futures play and we thought they would steal one game in Memphis and hold serve at home. Well, they got that win in Game 1 in incredible fashion by coming back from 24 down in the fourth quarter to win the game in the final minute. Lots of people out there are saying that the Grizzlies are mentally sunk after letting that game get away. However, these guys are professional basketball players and we think this mental angle is a bit overstated. Does that win give the Clippers a better chance to win the series? Of course. But we are sure Memphis is just thinking of this as a game that got away and we expect them to put together a nice effort tonight and they should win this game comfortably. This is a must-win game tonight. We also think the Clippers are probably a bit content to have stolen Game 1 and we just think the motivation is heavily weighted in Memphis

We absolutely love the Celtics in this series and we think that there is a great chance they can sweep here. Boston has been playing as well as anyone the last couple months and we think they make easy work of the Hawks. We expect them to win this Game 1 straight up and the points are just a bonus in case of a close game. If this was a regular NBA season the Celtics would probably be hosting this series. They started off the season horribly and at one point looked in jeopardy of possibly missing the playoffs altogether. However, this team really came on the last couple months and they have been playing playoff-quality basketball for awhile now. The Hawks are a solid team. But this team is always a club that does well during the regular season and then flames out in the playoffs. We think that will be the case again. Atlanta was helped out by the abbreviated NBA schedule this season and this team is young and deep and they excelled in back-to-backs. However, as we move to a more traditional schedule for the first round of the playoffs this gives the Celtics a big advantage as they have time to rest and more time to focus on their opponent. And the playoffs is where the starts shine and make a name for themselves and the Hawks are a collective of good players but the Celtics have legends and the guys that are known for raising their level of play during the postseason. Boston knows its window of opportunity is closing and this is the year that they need to make one last push for the championship. We just think they give their best effort here and the Celtics at their best are better than the Hawks at their best and we think they steal this Game 1 on the road. The Celtics won both

Just think the Celtics are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA right now while the Heat are obviously the big public team in the NBA right now. And this game features a couple angles that will determine both clubs

The Wizards are actually playing some of the best ball in the NBA in the last few games, believe it or not. They got road wins against the top two teams in the east in Miami and Chicago and they won at home against a Milwaukee team that has been playing pretty well. Now they face a team that is, in our minds, one of the worst NBA teams we can remember from the last several years. We will never know how this team would rank historically in a full season but not onlt is Charlotte lacking talent and plagued with injuries, but this team has just given up on the season long ago and Las Vegas can

While we don

This is one of our favorite NBA handicapping systems when teams play a home-and-home on consecutive nights. And we had a big play on the Nuggets last night and since that one worked out that sets up perfectly for Houston tonight. Revenge is one of the most overrated angles for NBA handicapping but I n these back-to-back games it becomes a huge angle because the loss is fresh on the losing team

We thought the line for this one would come in around 6 and we would have a lean to Charlotte at that number but for a rare occasion we think there is actually value on the Bobcats side. The Celtics are an old team and they just aren

Utah always seems to be overrated on the road. They are such a solid home team and they come out of nowhere every once in awhile on the road with a big win so the oddsmakers have been forced to stay honest with this team. That has created value going against them on the road and we think that value is present here tonight. This team had its six-game win streak a couple weeks ago but since that ended they are just 4-6 straight up and 3-6-1 ATS. And one of those wins and covers was last time out on Monday against San Antonio in a game where the Spurs rested all of their Big 3. The Rockets are in playoff form right now and this team is very under the radar and that is why they keep getting favorable lines. They have won four straight, all on the road, and they are 5-1 in their last six with the only loss in OT against Indiana. They have covered in all their wins during that stretch. This team has been money at home all season at 18-10 ATS and they are 10-5 ATS at home against winning teams while the Jazz are 5-10 ATS on the road against winning teams. The Rockets are finally getting healthy and the Jazz are dealing with a bevy of injury issues and we just think the Rockets take care of business here with a pretty comfortable win.

The Cavaliers have flat-out stunk lately. But the Bobcats have a whole nother level of stink on them. This is much like the game last night against the Wizards where the Bobcats were a slight home favorite. The Wizards are a young team and that is the reason they have been so bad this season. The Bobcats are a flat out bad team and they don

Everyone is bullish on the Clippers right now. And that is for pretty good reason as they are 8-1 in their last nine games. However, this team has had a very home-heavy schedule lately In fact; they have had only two road games in that stretch. The last one was a win over feeble Sacramento that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Kings were in it right to the end. And the game before was a big win at Dallas. We had a big play on the Mavs in that game, we have to admit, and Dallas just absolutely did not show up with any effort in that game. They would have probably lost to any team in the league that night. And you can argue that the Lakers game was somewhat of a road game as there were as many Lakers fans in attendance, if not more, even though it was an

The Wizards have been one of the worst teams ATS in the league this season. However, they do have value tonight as the Nets are just not a deserving huge favorite in this one. First of all, these teams played right on this same basketball court about two weeks ago and the Wizards won the game by 19! We can probably expect a better effort from the home team tonight but that was a pretty commanding win. And forget about revenge

We thought this line would come in around Boston -3.5 and we would have liked this play at that number but we love it at the current number. Both teams are playing great ball right now but the Celtics have really kicked it up another gear and they are playing playoff-caliber basketball lately. This team has won five straight and seven of eight and they have covered in every one of those wins. Last time out they bounced Miami out of town and won the game by nearly 20 points. It was more that an off night for the Heat