Sports Picks & Predictions

4 Unit Play. #768 Take Northern Illinois over Elon (2 pm) I just do not see Northern Illinois losing two straight home games during the NIU Showcase. They are coming off a tough loss to Cal Poly on Wednesday but expect them to regroup and get back on the winning track against Elon.  The home team has a great advantage as this is not a resort area (DeKalb, IL) and Elon and Cal Poly could think of a ton of other spots they would rather be than here. Elon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win in their previous game. Northern Illinois is 23-9 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 35 home games. 

Portland has won and covered in two of the last three meetings and they have covered in six of the last eight in this series. Portland hasn’t covered many lines lately, but they got on track last time out with a win and cover at Brooklyn. They don’t have any travel issues here, going across town to play in MSG against the Knicks. Since the Blazers failed to cover in a string of games the bookies adjusted the total for this team too much. We had them as a slight favorite here and expect them to win this game straight out.

The Timberwolves have been a bit up and down this season but we are sticking with them because we think this team will be pretty good ATS when all is said and done. We think this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They have won and covered in the last four meetings against Boston at home. This will be the third game in four nights for the Celtics, and after playing Golden State and Detroit this is probably a letdown spot against a out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a superpower. The Wolves have pretty much been alternating wins and losses lately and they are coming off a real bad performance against Memphis and we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back.

10 Unit Play. #471 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Seattle looked impressive last week against New England but that cross-country flight home from a Sunday night game will take its toll on them for this game. Their offensive line is still weak and they will face a much better defense today than they saw from the Patriots last week. Look for the defenses of both teams to dominate this game and that puts us in a good shape as we are getting close to a touchdown. The Seahawks have not been the same dominating team at home this year, as they have had close games against Atlanta, Buffalo, and Miami. Philadelphia is better than two of those teams and they have a quarterback that should be getting better with more experience. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC teams. 

4 Unit Play. #374 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) These are two of the surprise teams in the country and very similar styles on offense. They both like to score points as quickly as possible. Both teams control their own destiny to make the conference championship game but I have not been impressed with the Cougars road play of late. They struggled to beat Oregon State and Arizona State and will face a much better team today in Boulder. Colorado is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Colorado is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

We went against Brooklyn last night and the Clippers rolled, but we are going to back them tonight here on Tuesday. They face a much lesser opponent tonight and this team has been very good ATS this season at 7-3 ATS. The Lakers have been strong as an underdog but we don’t like them laying a lot of points like this as while they are an improved team this squad is not ready for favorite status. This back-to-back situation isn’t that bad for the Nets as they will be playing in the same building as they did last night and this team is young so fatigue should not be a factor. Brooklyn has been better than expected this season and we expect them to keep this game close tonight.

The Clippers look like the best team in the NBA so far this season and they are looking like the Warriors did last season, just punishing opponents. We don’t see this team taking a club like Brooklyn for granted as they have learned a lot of lessons about this in the last couple of years and they know that this season they have the best squad the franchise has ever had and every game is important. LA has the best defense in the league and Brooklyn one of the worst, and even though this Nets team is 4-5 on the season they have had a pretty easy schedule. But make no mistake this is one of the five worst teams in the NBA. The Clippers have shown the ability to blow good teams out of the water but we think they should win this game by 20+.

10 Unit Play. #270 Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) We have gone against the 49ers in their last two games and look to complete the trifecta on Sunday. San Francisco is getting destroyed by teams in the second half and their lack of talent and time of possession is catching up with them. San Francisco cannot stop the run and they are allowing 37.1 points per game over their last seven games. Arizona already won at San Francisco this year by double digits with a backup quarterback. Things should go even smoother today for what is a must win game for Arizona if they have visions of making the playoffs. Arizona has won three straight games in this series by an average of 19 points per game. San Francisco is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC West teams. Arizona is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record. 

This Hornets team is very under the radar but they have been great so far this season at 6-2, including a 3-0 mark on the road. The Cavs are 7-1 but they are only 3-5 ATS as this team is very often shaded by the oddsmakers. The public isn’t going to tough the Hornets here and the oddsmakers know that so they have to add points to the line, and we think this line should be closer to 6. Not a ton of extra value here but enough to make this a play, and we expect a close game here as the Cavs now have an even bigger bullseye on their back after winning it all last year and they will get the best from most opponents. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS at home against above-.500 teams, which just goes to show that they are overvalued in this spot.

We think this is a bad spot for the Clippers coming off a hard-fought, down-to-the-wire battle against Oklahoma City last night. That’s a tough back to back to play in as the Thunder are a big, physical team. The Clippers have covered in only one of the last four meetings. The Wolves have gotten off to a slow start this season but this team is much improved this year. They will put it all together, and this would be a statement win for them. We think they bring their best game tonight, and they match up well with Los Angeles. They are coming off a confidence-building road win last time out and have had two days off to rest and prepare for this game. We think they have a very good chance for the straight up win here and we think it will be a very close game regardless.

The Clippers are off to their best start in franchise history and right now this looks like hands down the best team in the NBA. They look like Golden State did last season. They are 7-1 both SU and ATS, and their one loss this season was to these Thunder in LA last week. This was just an off game from the Clippers and not a signal that the Thunder are the better team. LA shot less than 40 percent from the field in that game and the shots just weren’t falling. Despite that off game they were still in the game until the final seconds. Outside of the Clippers win and a blowout loss to Golden State the Thunder have had a pretty easy schedule up until Wednesday when they were pretty much exposed by the Raptors at home in a 10-point loss. We just don’t think that this team is as good as they have looked so far, and the Clippers will want revenge in this game for the one blemish on their record. We had this game handicapped at Clippers -7, so we think there is some great value here. LA has one their last three games by an average of 29 points, and they made the Blazers, a very good team, look foolish last time out. They are playing by far the best defense in the league in allowing around 88 points per game. This team is one of the deepest in the league now with a retooled bench, and everyone seems to be on the same page. Doc Rivers stressed the importance of getting off to a fast start this season since by the start of December they were in such a division hole that they would never be able to recover from. Looks like the players have listened, and we just don’t see them losing to what we consider a mediocre Thunder team twice in the same month.

The Pelicans are on the last game of a three-game road trip tonight. They have a chance to set the franchise record for losses to start a season tonight. We think they give an all-out effort to avoid that tonight. This team has been bad, but they still have some talent and also a guy named Anthony Davis, one of the NBA’s best players and definitely the best player on the court here tonight. This team will probably not be very good this season but they will still win a bunch of games and they won’t be kept out of the winless column for long. This is the most winnable game on this road trip and the Pelicans had two OT losses before this trip so they have been close to getting that first win. The Bucks scored 74 points (in regulation) last time out in their loss at Dallas and we think that current bad offensive form could translate into a Pelicans win tonight.

We have backed the Clippers a lot this young season and we said we expected a hot start and that is just what happened as they have their best start in franchise history at 6-1 and are climbing up everyone’s power rankings. We think this team is going to be a solid bet all season. However, we do think this line is too large on Wednesday for the home team. These teams met in the Clippers season opener and LA won by eight in Portland but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter and that loss sets up a revenge spot here for the Blazers. The Clips have the best scoring defense in the league but the Blazers were able to put points on the board against them (only team to eclipse the century mark) and we think they will be able to put enough points on the board to keep this one close.

So we have been on the Lakers quite a bit this season and that’s been a major reason for our hot start. But it doesn’t take long for the numbers to get inflated with this team when they play well. And that is the case tonight against a team that has owned them with 10 straight wins against the Lakers, six coming by double digits. This is a young team and they are well coached now, but we still think that maybe it’s too early for them to be lined like this against a team like Dallas, even though the Mavericks haven’t started off the season well. The Lakers couldn’t score on the Mavs last season and Dallas held them under 90 points, on average, in the three-game sweep. We think their defense will get the job done tonight again.

Both of these teams have been cash cows so far this season with the Suns at 4-2 ATS and the Lakers at 5-1 ATS. The Suns are playing well but we have to go with the home team here and we expected this line to be higher and there is some very nice line value here. The Lakers have had a little tougher schedule this season and this team just dominated the Golden State Warriors last time out and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Their success this season so far just shows how important coaching is in the NBA and we think this line is short tonight.

10 Unit Play. #471 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) It has been a while since the Raiders have gotten on NBC and I fully expect them to fall flat on their face in this game. Oakland has already lost two road games this season and they have yet to cover the spread in any home game this season. They have the better quarterback in this game but penalties are always a major concern with this team. I still believe the league and the officials are out to get this team because of Al Davis and they look to throw flags against them on every play. Tampa Bay had every opportunity to win last week against Oakland yet could not take advantage of the situation. That will not happen with Denver one of the better coached teams in the league. Oakland ranks at the bottom of the league in both pass & run defense. The Raiders have played a very easily schedule thus far as the AFC South and NFC South are not all that good. Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games. Denver is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games overall. 

10 Unit Play. #405 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 7:30 pm BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. Penn State is getting a lot of publicity for beating Ohio State but they are overvalued now. These are two similar teams and should be around a field goal spread and thus we will gladly grab this many points with a team that plays well on the road. Iowa has won nine straight road games including three conference games this season. This is not expected to be a whiteout for the home team and I just do not believe Penn State is good enough to be laying this many points against top teams in the league. Penn State was an underdog to Maryland and Pittsburgh this season and now they are a touchdown favorite against a better team than those two. Iowa is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. If they can stabilize this game early, it should go down to the wire. Penn State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Iowa is a better team as an underdog and their senior quarterback will make enough plays to keep this game close and pull out the straight-up victory. 

When the Sixers play the Cavs it’s like their own little version of the NBA Finals and they seem to elevate their game big time against this opponent. They have covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Although they have only won one of those matchups, this is the best Philly team we have seen during that stretch and the line is not much different than what we have dealt with in the past. The Cavs have looked great to start the season but this team is overvalued by the oddsmakers as is indicated by their 2-3 ATS record despite their 5-0 SU record. This will only be their second road game this season. This is one of the biggest home games for Philly this year and we think these young guys give a great effort here in a close game.

10 Unit Play. #366 Take Auburn Tigers over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) We will continue to ride Auburn as they are playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment. The Tigers have won five straight games and only one game was below double digits. Auburn has an outstanding rushing attack with a three-headed monster. Vanderbilt has played a very weak SEC schedule thus far and it does not get much tougher either as this is their toughest game on the schedule. They need to win two of their last four games to go bowling and I do not see that happening. Vanderbilt has a good defense but they have yet to play an explosive offense like Auburn. The Tigers have covered the spread in five straight games. The Commodores are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win in their previous game. 

The Pelicans are 0-5 on the season and the spreads just keep getting better for this team and this squad is starting to see some real value. If this game was on opening night the Pelicans may be a 8-point favorite. But Phoenix has been more competitive than expected and the Pelicans have yet to win a game, therefore we have a slim line here. But make no mistake the Pelicans are a lot better of a team than the Suns and Phoenix is only 1-4 so even though they have played well they are not playing well enough to warrant this kind of spread on the road. This line tells me these teams would be about pickem on a neutral floor, and with Anthony Davis being one of the NBA’s best we think the Pels have a decided edge.

In this matchup of Durant vs. Westbrook the Warriors have a huge edge. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at the Clippers on Wednesday and now they face an even tougher test here on Thursday. Both these star players want to win this game, but Westbrook expended a lot of energy last night against LA and Durant has a much better supporting cast. The Warriors have an us-against-the-world mentality and I have a feeling that the rest of the Warriors want this game for Durant even more than Durant does. We expect the best performance of the year from Golden State here, and this one should be a blowout.

This is another great spot for the Clippers, who we are very high on entering the season. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this season thus far. Coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this season and this team is really looking better than they have at any point early-season in the Blake Griffin era. This is a horrible spot for OKC. They play the Warriors on national TV tomorrow. Russell Westbrook and his massive ego are probably putting in all their chips on that game and could care less about this one. We don’t expect max effort here. All anyone ever asks Westbook is about Durant leaving to greener pastures. You can tell by his responses that he is really bothered by this. He will give it his all on Thursday but on Wednesday this is a real look-ahead spot for the visitors.

Just don’t like this New Orleans team right now and besides Anthony Davis this team doesn’t offer much in terms of scoring. Yes, Davis is leading the league in points per game but the team has not had any success on the floor. This team is massively overrated by the oddsmakers and the general betting public right now and we think the Bucks have a great chance to score a road win here, especially if they can focus on slowing down Davis and playing team basketball. This really seems like a line set to attract New Orleans money but we think the underdog is the clear play here.

Both teams are coming into this one on back-to-backs but the Clippers were at home yesterday also so they are in a better position with no travel. Phoenix also played Golden State on Sunday at home and put up a pretty good effort in a six-point loss and we think this is a letdown spot for them after that game, one they surely wanted more than this one. The Clippers are underrated to start the season. Everyone remembers the playoff exits and frustrations with this team but no one remembers how good this team can be, and coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this year as this team has been notoriously slow to start. But they have looked great so far and look to be in midseason form, and we expect them to dominate this much lesser opponent tonight.

10 Unit Play. #259 Take New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This is a revenge game for the Patriots as they lost to Buffalo earlier this season without QB Tom Brady. New England is 3-0 since the return of Tom Brady and they have won all three games by double digits. Now Buffalo is banged up with RB LeSean McCoy have been injured in the last two games. With Robert Woods also banged up (did not play last week) I just do not believe Tyrod Taylor can win this game on his own without any weapons. New England has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Orlando hasn’t looked very good to open the season but you can’t judge a team by just two games and we expect them to give the Cavs their best shot tonight. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game against rival Toronto last night and now they face a much lesser opponent and we think this is a prime letdown spot for them tonight. This team is often overvalued by the oddsmakers but that is very evident here with this huge number on the back-to-back. We think Frank Vogel will have his team ready tonight and we think Orlando is a solid value play.

We went against the Jazz in their first game (at Portland) and went with the Lakers at home in Game 1 (against Houston) and both picks cashed. Now we are looking the other direction. Los Angeles got the win in Luke Walton’s coaching debut but they played a Rockets team that doesn’t play any defense and that fits into their style of play. Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the league and points won’t be easy to come by and this will be a new style for the Lakers young guys to play. We hope Derrick Favors is back for Utah tonight, but even if he isn’t the Jazz should have no problem getting the double-digit win in their home opener. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and there is a lot of excitement in Utah this season and the crowd will be rocking. And Utah really needs a big win here as they have road games against the Clippers and Spurs on deck in their next two games so a 0-4 start is definitely a possibility if they don’t take this game very seriously tonight. Utah has covered in four of five meetings and three of those were double-digit blowouts. The two games in Utah last year were absolute massacres (48 and 27 points) and we think they will take care of business again in a big way.

Doc Rivers, Clippers coach, has emphasized all preseason how Los Angeles needs to get off to a fast start this year. They haven’t done that the last couple years and that has cost them playoff seeding and a tough road in the playoffs. With the Super Team in Golden State in the division the Clippers need to be very focused this season to keep par. They were out of the division race last season after the first month of the season. They really need the No. 2 seed this year in the playoffs to avoid the Warriors for as long as possible, and they need to avoid a slow start to achieve that. This is a major revenge spot for the Clippers after losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last season. LA was in total control in that series before they lost Blake Griffin and Chris Paul to injury. We think they will give max effort here. Portland got a win in their opener against Utah but that game was closer than it looked and they needed a rally to get by the injured Jazz. That type of effort won’t be enough tonight against what should be a very motivated Clippers team whose core has been together for a long time now.

Minnesota has played well in this series, covering six of the last eight meetings. And this Minnesota club is the best version we have seen during that time. This team is going to be really good this year and they have a great shot to make the playoffs. They should come into this season opener anxious to get the season off to a strong start. Memphis is a team that seems to be trending downward. Their championship window has closed and this should be another transitional year for this club. The Grizzlies are also very banged up heading into the new season. Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau will want to get off to a fast start with his young, energetic team, and the Wolves were a solid bet on the road last season and we expect them to notch a win in the season opener tonight.

We like Portland a lot and had this game handicapped at 8.5 so we think there is some nice value on opening night. The Jazz are real banged up to start the season and that is not a good sign on the road, where the Jazz have traditionally struggled in the past. The Blazers have won and covered both of the last two meetings here at home and they have covered in three of four in this series. Leading scorer Gorgon Hayward will be out here and Derrick Favors might miss the game as well. The team just doesn’t seem very confident right now with these injuries and working some new players in the mix. The Blazers will want to get off to a strong start here in front of the home fans, and they have the better team on the floor at this point of the season.  We just expect a real strong showing from the home team and Damian Lillard will be the best player on the court tonight and lead his team to a comfortable win on the home court.

10 Unit Play. #453 Take Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Eagles are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games to mediocre teams (Detroit & Washington) and now must face the best defense in the league. QB Carson Wentz is starting to get found out and one must remember that he is still a rookie and set the bar so high during the first three weeks of the season. Philadelphia did not score an offensive touchdown last week and their vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks giving up 231 rushing yards last week at Washington. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. 

10 Unit Play. #401 Take Auburn Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The line on this game is very telling! Both teams have two losses and Arkansas is ranked higher than Auburn the polls yet the Tigers come in as close to a double-digit favorite. Arkansas had to run the gauntlet the first three weeks of conference play with games against Texas A & M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. It is hard to believe that they will have much left in the tank for this game especially since they have yet to have a bye this year (this is their 8th game in 8 weeks). Auburn is coming off a bye and they enter this game on a three game winning streak. Auburn lost a 4OT game to Arkansas last year but Auburn is trending way up in 2016. The Tigers are 12th in the country in rushing and the Razorbacks are 80th in the country in rushing defense. 

10 Unit Play. #469 Take San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.The Chargers get up for this game and have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings (won both meetings last year). The Chargers are playing good football; they are just blowing leads in the fourth quarter. Oakland has never handled being the favorite well, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when they are favored at the Coliseum. Taking these stats even further, the underdog in this series has covered the spread in 13 of the last 14 games. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 on the season, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. San Diego is scoring over 30 points per game, and Oakland is in the bottom three in yards allowed (rushing and passing). The stats all favor the Chargers, and expect them to protect the football and win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #214 Take Boise State Broncos over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) The Mountain West is a battle between two teams for the top spot and Utah Stat is not one of those teams. Boise State has traditionally dominated this league and this match-up going 12-1 against Utah State. That being said the Broncos were embarrassed last year in Logan losing 52-26 despite being a 9-point favorite. That loss was solely on the play of the Broncos giving away the game with 8 turnovers. Utah State has been on a downward trend after reaching the pinnacle in 2012 going 11-2. They lost to Akron last year in a bowl game (The Zips first ever bowl win) and they are just 2-2 this season. Coach Matt Wells has messed up the offense with a rotation of numerous quarterbacks over the last couple of years and now falls to Kent Myers, a former wide receiver. He showed some promise earlier in his career but like most of their quarterbacks has gotten worse the more he plays and gets coached. The Broncos are back to normal and they are on a mission to run the table and still have an outside shot at a spot in the college football playoff if San Diego State continues to win games as well. Their game last week against Oregon State was not as close as the final score would indicate and you can be sure they will not take this game lightly whatsoever. Utah State is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games. The last time these two teams met in Boise is was a 50-19 victory for the Broncos and that was against a more talented Aggies team that what they will see on Saturday. 

10 Unit Play. #468 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pm CBS) AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. The line on this game tells me a great deal. The Jaguars have been a doormat for most of their existence and are 0-2 facing a 2-0 team. Yet this is a pick’em game and all of the public will be lining up to put down their money on Baltimore. That being said Baltimore was outplayed by Cleveland last week and going on the road for a second consecutive week will be too much for them to overcome. If Baltimore holds as a favorite once must consider the stat of 2-10 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here as many experts believe that this is a talented enough roster to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC this season. Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored less than 15 points. This is not a sexy pick but like Los Angeles last week it is one that should grab the money. 

10 Unit Play. #384 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) I just cannot get out of my head how well Tennessee played to close out the 2015 season. Sooner or later they will get back to that level since they return most of their 2015 talent. It has not really happened this season but this is the game they will breakout and performance at a high level. They have no excuses not to be up for this game since Florida has beaten them 11 straight years. But the Gators will be without their starting quarterback and that does not bode well playing in a hostile environment. All three of Tennessee’s victories this season have come over the posted number for today’s game. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.  

10 Unit Play. #167 Take Oregon Ducks over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 12:30 pm ABC) Nonconference Game of the Year. Do not be misled by the final score of the Wyoming – Nebraska game last week. It was 24-17 before Wyoming had four consecutive turnovers giving Nebraska 28 fourth quarter points and the cover. Oregon will not be as giving and will make Nebraska go the length of the field in order to score points. That is something QB Tommy Armstrong struggles to do, as he did not look that impressive last week and has trouble hitting is receivers in stride. Throw in the fact that Mike Riley is just 4-10 against Oregon and we will gladly take the points with the better and more talented team. The Ducks will never reach the heights they did under Marcus Mariota but they still have an explosive system that can put on points in the blink of the eye. Despite being a decent Michigan State team last year with the help of a controversial call, Nebraska has underperformed in big games through most of the last decade and whenever fans start to believe in this team they just lay an egg. Oregon is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games. The points are just icing on the cake as Oregon will win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #462 Take New Orleans Saints over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Raiders are our top selection in the preseason and will do so yet again in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Just feel this team is vastly overrated and people are forgetting how poorly they closed out the 2015 Regular Season. Although the Saints have not been as dominating in New Orleans the last couple of years compared to 2011-2013, it is still an extremely difficult place to play and something the Raiders have not done so in 8 years. It is always tough for a west coast team to play an early Sunday game and Oakland is just 1-18 straight-up when the game starts at 1 pm eastern time. Oakland is equally as bad on the road in general winning just 6 of their last 32 road games. Drew Brees is still the best player on the field and he has covered the spread against Oakland seven straight games. New Orleans covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in 2016.  

10 Unit Play. #364 Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) SEC Game of the Year. We went against the Bulldogs last week and won outright despite getting 28.5 points! Now the odds makers feel that the public will overreact to that game and put a pile of money on South Carolina since they won on the road last week in Nashville. That just sets up great for us and we will gladly lay less than a touchdown with a much better team that is used to the Dan Mullen system. Mississippi State should have knocked out South Alabama last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead before falling apart in the second half. South Carolina does not have a high powered offense and Will Muschamp was fired at Florida for his lack of innovation. South Carolina will not be able to cover this spread unless the score in the twenties and I expect them to struggle doing that. Both teams play multiple quarterbacks but Dan Mullen is the better offense coach and thus the Bulldogs will bounce back in a big way on Saturday. South Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SEC games. Beating Vanderbilt is one thing, but Mississippi State is clearly a step-up from that bottom feeder program and will be USC by double digits allowing us to collect big in the process.  

10 Unit Play. #156 Take Michigan Wolverines over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) This is a ton of points to be laying but I just do not see anyway Hawaii keeps it close. Hawaii is faced with a brutal travel situation having played in Australia last Friday late night and now must come to Michigan this week. Hawaii faced two Big 10 teams last year in Wisconsin and Iowa and they failed to score a single point in either of those two games. I do not believe this Hawaii team is better than the 2015 version despite an upgrade in coaching. This is a complete rebuild for new coach and I believe they will lose this game by 50 points. Michigan is expecting big things this year and they could not ask for an easier start to the season with six of their first seven games at home. Michigan is 23-3 in home openers and if a bad Hawaii team can get pounded by Cal last week (backdoor covered that game) I just do not see that happening today. Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to take the foot of the peddle and allow Hawaii to backdoor cover this game. Michigan gets close to 60 points and wins this game and covers the spread. 

10 Unit Play. #273 Take Tennessee Titans over Oakland Raiders (Saturday 8 pm CBS) The Raiders struggle to get fans and it will be even harder to draw fans for a Saturday preseason game that starts at 5 pm local time. Tennessee is coming off a disappointing performance last week against Carolina and expect them to play much better against a much lesser opponent on Saturday. Both teams have just three quarterbacks but I really believe all three of the Titans quarterbacks can move the football. Tennessee actually ran the ball well against a stout Carolina defense last week average 4 yards per carry with multiple back seeing action. As we saw last week with our San Francisco selection, it is just hard to lay this many points in exhibition play. A lot of people are high on Oakland this season but I am not one of them. One must remember that they lost six of their last nine games to close out the 2015 season. Take the points as we expect Tennessee to win straight-up and getting this many points is just icing on the cake. 

1 Unit Play. #262 Take Chicago Bears over Denver Broncos (Thursday 8 pm) Game just means more to coach John Fox, the former coach of the Denver Broncos. By winning the Super Bowl they year after John Fox left Denver, Coach Kubiak has nothing to prove in this game. Expect Paxton Lunch to struggle playing most of the second half for Denver, a team that did not have a very good offense last year. Coach Fox is 10-4 straight-up in Week 1 of the exhibition season during his 14 years as a head coach. Chicago dominated Week 1 last year beating the Dolphins by 17 points and expect a similar result tonight at Soldier Field. 

10-Unit Play. Take #958 St. Louis (-1.5 RL) over San Diego (7 p.m., Thursday, July 21)

I am going right back to them for my National League Game of the Year here on Thursday! The Cardinals pulled the sweep yesterday, hitting the runline in the first game and then winning 3-2 in the second. That's now three straight win over the Padres and I think the Cardinals will win big again today. This St. Louis team knows it needs to play great baseball down the stretch to have a prayer at catching the Cubs or making the playoffs. This is one of the best organizations in baseball and I think they are going to be strong in the second half. The Cardinals have dominated this series for nearly a decade! St. Louis has gone 48-15 at home against the Padres and are 86-40 in their last 126 games against San Diego overall. Today the Cards are going with Adam Wainwright, the staff leader. They are 40-17 in his last 57 home starts and 40-19 when he starts on regular rest. Wainwright has three straight quality starts and a 0.39 ERA in those outings. He has thrown seven of eight quality starts and has been awesome at home this year. The Padres are going with Andrew Cashner. He has been a huge disappointment and has an ERA over 5.00 on the season. Cashner has been even worse on the road! He has lost four straight road starts and has a 7.83 ERA this season away from home. Everything in this game points to the Cardinals winning and winning big. Take St. Louis.

This series has played out pretty much to a T how we thought it would and we always thought that Golden State would end up winning this thing so that is our strong side play for Game 7 on Sunday. A team is never as bad as their last bad game, and we think the Warriors will have a great rebound game here. They have one of the best home-court advantages in pro sports and the crowd will be rocking here for Game 7. In Game 6 we predicted the refs would play a big part in the game and that ended up being the case. But Cleveland didn’t really need the refs as they won the game fair and square. Golden State, however, did a good job at coming back from a big early deficit and they just kind of fell apart there at the end of the game. The game was closer to us than the final score indicated and the Warriors were in early foul trouble that threw them off their game. But we would have been happy with anything under 8 for Game 7 and we were thrilled when we saw the opening line. We really like the Warriors all the way up to double digits and think they should win this game pretty easily. The Warriors have the better team and better coach, and they will find a way to make adjustments and get the job done. Just as we said in our Game 6 writeup, we didn’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland and we just don’t see the Cavs winning two in a row in Golden State. The Warriors haven’t lost three in a row all season and Curry and company will be very motivated here and the cream will rise to the top on Sunday and the seserving team will come away with the trophy.

The Cavs grabbed the momentum in this series with a Game 5 win in the Bay Area. The Warriors were without Draymond Green in that one and he will be back here. But that was a pretty dominant win and we’re not so sure that Green would have made a difference there. The Warriors are a great team – one of the best in NBA history. But most of their damage has been done at home, and they now have 12 road losses on the season. Cleveland has lost only nine games at home. We just don’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland, and Cleveland really seems to have found their groove in this series. They played excellent defense in Game 5, and it was a bit disconcerting to see the Warriors basically give up at the end of that game when things began to look out of reach for a comeback. Also, even though the NBA is not “rigged” like a lot of people thing, certain stars and teams get preferential treatment, especially at home. The NBA stands to make millions upon millions if this series goes to Game 7, and with two of the three biggest stars in the game competing on this stage and with how compelling this series has been you know the league really wants this one to go to Game 7. So we are pretty sure the Cavs will get preferential treatment from the refs if this game is close, and even if a couple extra calls go their way that can make a huge difference in a close game. Game 5 is a crucial one for teams up 3-1 to close the series out, especially on their home court. We saw some examples of this recently with the Rockets coming back from 3-1 against the Clippers after LA blew Game 5. And in these same playoffs we saw the Warriors recapture the momentum against the Thunder by winning Game 5 to come back and win their series in seven games. Golden State really put themselves in a bad position by not taking care of business in Game 5. We expect this series to be pushed to Game 7 and think the Cavs are the only way to play this one.

We always thought that the Cavs would win one game at home in this series and that’s why we stayed away from the side in Game 3 and went with the total for our big play. But now that the Cavs got that win out of the way we think there’s a great chance that the Warriors take this game and put the Cavs on the brink of elimination here. The Warriors have lost consecutive games only once this season, last series against Oklahoma City, and we just don’t see two bad games in a row from them. They are the better team in our eyes even though this team has been prone to some off games late in the season and in the playoffs like we saw in Game 3 of these finals. Curry has not done much in this series and we think it’s very doubtful that he doesn’t go off for a big night and very soon. And there’s no reason it can’t happen here in Game 4. His slumps don’t last long and this guy lives for the big stage like this. This is one of the best-coached teams in the league (something that can’t be said for Cleveland) so the Warriors have the players and coaching to bounce back from a bad-looking loss like Game 3 and we think they will make the necessary adjustments to play a much more competitive game. Love should be back here for Cleveland and he has been very ineffective this whole series and we don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team thrived with him out of the lineup in Game 3 and until he shows he can play a lot better under the major spotlight we have to think he might hold the team back. We had this line at Warriors -2.5 for this game based on our ratings and we have to feel that they can pull it out and getting the extra points here just helps us immensely in case there is a last-second winning shot at the end of the game for the Cavs. But overall we think the Warriors will step up the defense and you won’t see near as much success out of Cleveland for Game 4 on the offensive end. We think the Warriors offense will wake up here (this team seems to respond well to a wakeup call as they did when going down to OKC 3-1 in that series).  Take the Warriors plus the points for Game 4.

We were pretty sure that the Warriors were a solid and strong favorite coming into this series and their Game 1 domination just solidified our stance. The west is just so much stronger than the east and we think the Warriors faced their toughest test in the Western Conference Finals in their win over Oklahoma City, a team that was playing as well as any team in the league at the time. Cleveland was a trendy pick for an upset in this series, but we just don’t see it. Yes, they are healthier than last season. Yes, they have looked awesome in the playoffs so far. But besides LeBron what have the core players on this team done in the past? Irving and Love had absolutely no success before they linked up with LeBron and that just goes to show us that these guys aren’t true leaders. Look at DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. He is the type of player that should lead his team to the playoffs every year. But he always comes up short. We put these guys from Cleveland in the same category until they prove us wrong. Curry and Thompson could not get anything going in Game 1 and the Warriors still recorded a blowout. Doubt those guys are going to be held in check for two straight games at home. There are two nights off before this game and that really benefits the home team here and we see them rolling again in this one by 10+ points. You would expect that the bookies would make this line about 5 if they thought Cleveland had a chance to play better in Game 2 so we think it’s very telling that they made this line larger than the Game 1 number and that tells us the bookies are confident in the Warriors as well.

While we think this will be a long series and there will certainly be spots to go with Cleveland later in the series we think the Warriors are clearly the play in Game 1. With a few nights off and in front of the home crowd we think that Golden State will come out with a strong performance here. They just overcame long odds to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series against the Thunder in seven games. They are the more battle tested team here and we think they have better momentum. The Cavs haven’t really been tested this playoffs and even in their series against Toronto they faced an overmatched team. The extra rest here benefits the Warriors and we think the road team could be rusty here. Golden State has covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and we think they take Game 1 by eight or more points.

We thought the Thunder would close this series out in Game 6 but the Warriors staged an incredible comeback after trailing most of the game and they caught the Thunder slipping. Now we are here for Game 7. We are not sure who will win this game. It will probably be the Warriors since they are at home. But the Thunder definitely have the chance for an upset and we expect a close game here. The Thunder played two pretty poor games last two times out and the way this team has played down the stretch and in the playoffs we don’t see them playing three like that in a row. Golden State hasn’t looked that great lately and they have counted on bursts of scoring and hot streaks at the right times for success in the last two wins. I like the professional attitude that the Thunder have shown in this series and the playoffs in general and this team has tons of playoff experience and they won’t just roll over here and we thought that this spread should be 4 max and we think this is a very public line. We see this one as being a close, high-scoring game and it should be a very good matchup but the Thunder are the only way to play this one in our opinion.

We have been pretty spot on in this series, hitting four out of five side plays, and our vision of how this series would play out has come to fruition almost perfectly. And we always thought that the Thunder would win this one in six games, and that is how we have to play this one. They have looked dominant in the two games at home and won those games by a combined 52 points. Even in Game 5 at Golden State the Warriors didn’t look like their dominant selves. The Thunder played a pretty lousy game and they were still within striking distance in the fourth quarter. We expect them to play much better at home tonight. This Warriors team was the best regular-season team of all time. This is a great team, no doubt. But they expended so much energy going for the NBA regular-season wins record and this is the first time they have been truly tested in the playoffs in the last two seasons. It has been pretty much a cakewalk for them up until this point, but now they face a team that is probably better than them at this point of the playoffs. The Thunder had some struggles early in the season with a new coach and it took everyone awhile to get on the same page. But now this team is playing as well as any team in the NBA has all season and they have a pair of stars in Durant and Westbrook that we think will dominate Game 6 here and send the Thunder to the NBA Finals. The Warriors lines have been inflated all season. We went against them quite a bit because they always had very public lines. That didn’t work out well very often. But now the lines have stayed inflated and we thought it was a joke they were favored in the first two games at OKC and after how the Thunder performed in those two games we think the Warriors are being given too much credit with this Game 6 line as well.

We were on the Raptors in Games 3 and 4 here at home but we think this team is done after they just got manhandled in Game 5 in Cleveland. That had to destroy the confidence of this team and they lost all the momentum they gained in tying this series 2-2. Cleveland played a great game on offense and one of their best games of the season on the defensive end. We think the Raptors tying up this series gave this team a real wakeup call and they don’t want to rely on a Game 7, even at home where they have played their best this series, to advance to the NBA Finals. Toronto looked really flustered and tried to force things too much in Game 5 and we think the Cavs will bring the same defensive gameplan to the table and honestly we don’t think the Raptors can make a lot of adjustments here and they can’t count on the Cavs poor shooting for three games (in Toronto) straight. Cleveland dominated this last game in every phase of the game and they really have Toronto on the ropes and running scared. We think they will give a full team effort tonight and we expect them to carry the momentum from last game on here tonight, not to mention the starters got the fourth quarter off (for both teams) and that benefits the Cavs more with a better roster overall. Toronto has a very nice team but not one that is NBA Finals worthy and we think their run ends here on Friday night.

We have been on the OKC Thunder heavy in this series with great results but we think the Warriors will bounce back in this one to push this series to Game 6. The blowout in Cleveland last night just underlined how important home-court is in the NBA Playoffs as the Cavs looked lost in their two games in Toronto and then bounced back with an incredible performance on Wednesday night. We think the same thing will happen tonight. Golden State is the best home team in the NBA and this team thrives in situations where people doubt them. They seem to feed off it. We think we could see another blowout like in Game 2. The Thunder played with a lot of intensity in Games 3 and 4 but with this series now at 3-1 it is just going to be hard for them to bring the same fire here on the road. Golden State is desperate and after a couple of poor shooting games the buckets should come much easier here at home. The spread hasn’t really come into play in the playoffs too much and this series is a big example of that. These are the two best offensive teams in the league and whomever wins will have a big point total, which makes the spread pretty irrelevant. The team that wins this game will be the one that is playing the better game offensively and with offenses like this a spread around this range doesn’t worry us. We think there is a great chance the home team wins this one by 10+ points. OKC has covered only one of the last six meetings here in the Bay Area, and we expect that trend to continue tonight.

While we do think the Cavs will win this one at home we also think this is an inflated line. The Raptors have to be feeling confident after two strong wins (and covers) at home to even the series at 2-2. Not only do they have momentum here but they also have Jonas Valanciunas coming back from injury tonight, and he has been a key cog in the machine that has got the Raptors this far into the postseason. Cleveland scored two blowouts to start this series but the Raptors had just finished two grueling 7-game series and the Cavs had a lot of time off. Now these teams are more on the same page as Toronto is in the groove of this series now while the Cavs are not as fresh. We had this line handicapped at 7.5 for the home team so we think there is some great value here tonight.

Wow, the oddsmakers really keep disrespecting the OKC Thunder here. This team is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now and should not be an underdog against anyone at home. We are getting another public line here. Everyone thinks that the zig zag theory is in effect or that Golden State just had a couple off games, but we think that the Thunder will win this series and we expect them to put the Warriors on the brink of elimination tonight. We have always been of the thinking that the Warriors would crash and burn in the playoffs. They were our preseason pick to go all the way. But they peaked in the regular season when chasing the regular-season wins record while other, smarter, teams were preparing for the playoffs. Golden State used up so much energy in that pursuit and they forgot that they weren’t really challenged in the playoffs last year by a good team and that they might this year and that they would need everything they had. Well now they face a formidable foe and this Thunder team flat out looks better and more determined than the Warriors right now. Westbrook and Durant are playing some incredible basketball and they will be tough to beat at home. The whole team is coming together and they have been playing strong defense that has really frustrated and flustered the Golden State shooters. You see some frustration coming in from stuff like Draymond Green’s antics, and this is causing a huge distraction that this team doesn’t need right now. In fact, this Warriors team has dealt with nothing but distraction between the regular-season wins record, Curry’s injury in the playoffs and now this with Green. OKC is just quietly going about their business and this team seems primed for a championship run. We expect another strong showing by the home team here and they know that their time is now to close out this series and we think they get the job done in a high-scoring game.

We really liked the way Toronto locked down on defense in Game 3 and held the Cavaliers to only 84 points. While we do think that the Cavs will obviously be able to score more than that tonight we still think there is value in the under and on the underdog Raptors. Toronto is not as bad as they looked in the two games in Cleveland and the Cavs are not as good. Toronto was coming off two exhausting seven-game series and they didn’t have time to get their footing against the best team they have faced in the playoffs. But now they are in the groove of this series and they have some nice momentum in Game 4 after a Game 3 blowout. Even though the Cavs get all the respect here you have to remember that the Raptors are one of the best home teams in the NBA. They are 39-11 at home this season (compare that to the Cavs 28-18 road record). They also won and covered both meetings here in the regular season so they match up pretty well here on their home court, in our opinion. We think they are going to use the same formula here with a lock-down defense and try and slow the game down. We think this will be a close game but we think the Raptors have a chance to win it, too, as we think this line is a very public one and that this series is not as lopsided as it looked in the first two games in Cleveland. Also, the under is 22-5-1 in the last 28 games in Toronto.

When we first scanned the line for Game 3 when it was released we saw the number and thought that was about right. But we quickly rubbed our eyes and realized that it was Golden State that was favored and not OKC, so we knew we had to release a strong play here because we think the wrong team is favored. Yes, Golden State got a blowout win in Game 2 at home. But that was one of those games where everything went right for them and their shooting was hot. But overall we like the way the Thunder have been playing defense in this series, especially on the shooters, and we think they will win this game at home on Sunday. Of any team in the west we think the Thunder matches up with the Warriors the best. They have two dynamic players in Durant and Westbrook that can match Curry and Thompson and their role players have really stepped up their game and Donovan is looking like he will be an excellent pro coach as well. Just think this is another very public line and we expect OKC to get the win here on Sunday.

Was leaning to Toronto in Game 1 but glad we didn’t pull the trigger as they were blown out. But we think that they will bounce back here in Game 2 and play a better game, and we are getting an even better line here. Game 1 was just one game and we don’t think it was a true reflection of the disparity between these two teams. Yes, Cleveland is the better team and Toronto is banged up right now. But the Raptors are a very tough and very proud team and this squad is not going to roll over for anyone. This is one of the better defensive teams in the east and they are definitely capable of making some adjustments here to keep the Cavs from scoring a lot. Look at the Spurs/Thunder series out in the west as San Antonio got a big blowout win in Game 1 and everyone thought that OKC was done. This line is an overreaction to Game 1 and we think Toronto will play better on offense and tighten up the defense and we think they will keep things close in a low-scoring game.

We thought the Thunder were undervalued in this series and their Game 1 win just solidified those thoughts. That game was no fluke. Now we are getting an even better line for Game 2. We think that OKC has risen up and is now on a level playing field with Golden State. Durant and Westbrook can match Curry and Thompson and the role players for OKC can match those of the Warriors. The Thunder started off the season with a new coach and it took time for everyone to get on the same page. But they are playing their best basketball right now maybe in the Durant era and they just took down freaking San Antonio, including two road wins, and they made it look pretty easy. The Spurs had one of the best regular seasons in history. We said late in the season that the Warriors might face trouble in the playoffs because they expended so much energy going for the regular-season wins record and that has now finally come to fruition. This is the first real challenge they have faced in the last two playoffs as all their opponents were either on a much lower level as a team or hobbled with injuries when they played Golden State. But we just think that this is a very public line. We think Golden State -4 would be more appropriate here. OKC has covered five of their last six games and their only non-cover was a slim one. The Warriors had some trouble with Portland and that series was closer than the results might show. Not sure if the Thunder will win this one. But we think they can if they play well. But we just think that all the games in this series will be close and this is too many points tonight on a very public line. OKC is 6-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points this season and the way this team is playing right now they should never be getting more than four as long as they are healthy.

Even though the Thunder didn’t play great against the Warriors in the regular season, besides that one OT loss at home, the playoffs are a different animal and we don’t think this series will be a cakewalk for the Warriors. OKC is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are peaking at the right time and to us these teams are a lot closer than the lines indicate. We expect a competitive series here. Golden State once again had a pretty easy path in the playoffs. They faced a Houston team in the first round that didn’t belong then they played an upstart Portland team that was a strong team but one that had a lack of top-level talent and wasn’t even expected to make the playoffs by most. But their opponent tonight is playing well and is very formidable. This is the time for Westbrook and Durant to finally make it over the hump and win a championship and we think they will give it all they have in every game and even though this team got off to a slow start it is finally melding together now and we think they come into this series a bit underrated. Both teams have played a lot of unders in these playoffs. Both play at a fast pace but both are also extremely strong defensively. In fact, both teams are in the Top 5 defensively for field goal percentage defense and we just think this total is about 4-5 points too high for Game 1.

We have said all along that we think this series is going to 7 games and have no doubt that premonition will come to fruition tonight. Just when one team looks to have the upper hand the other comes back strong. There is no conspiracy in the NBA, but the refs can have an outcome on the game and you know the NBA wants at least one Game 7 in the semifinals and the Heat will probably get some home cooking from the refs tonight. The Raptors have been overrated in this series and they only had one strong cover and that was in the last game. Both teams are banged up but we just like the Heat in this series and think their experience will pay off here. DeRozan has been pretty ineffective in this series so far and he is banged up and if not at 100% then the Raps lose a big difference maker. Miami is a great home team at 27-19-1 ATS and we think they will get the job done tonight in front of the home fans.

Curry is back and that means the public bettors are back in Golden State’s corner. And that’s understandable because they have been amazing against the spread for most of the season. You rarely see that from a team like this that the public loves. However, we just think they made too big of an adjustment here for Curry’s return and this spread is a few points too high for Game 5 here. Portland has played really well this series and this team is playing its best basketball of the season. They should have covered in Game 2 but ran out of steam late after having a lead most of the game. They scored a blowout at home in Game 3 and then took the Warriors to OT in Game 4 with Curry in the lineup off the bench. Just think this team is being underestimated a bit and Draymod Green didn’t help the Warriors cause with disrespectful comments after Game 4. Portland has nothing to lose here and we think they play a strong game that stays within double digits. Portland hasn’t had much trouble scoring on the Warriors the last couple games and we think this one will be high-scoring as well.

San Antonio is one of the best home teams this season in the history of the league and they have one of the best coaches in the history of the game, and we think they get the job done in the most important game of the series here in Game 5. The Thunder got a big blowout win in Game 4 to retake home-court advantage but the Spurs are the masters at bouncing back after a game like that and they will be ready to play. We think there is a great chance for a Spurs blowout like we saw in this same building in Game 1. The Spurs are the better team here, both SU and ATS, and even though the Thunder have surpassed our expectations so far in this series we still think the Spurs get the job done here and we think there is a great chance for them to return the favor with a double-digit win.

The Warriors had a rare off game last time out but this team is excellent at bouncing back after a loss and we don’t see any way they don’t win this one with authority. The Warriors are the better team even without Curry on the court and they have made this look easy so far in this series up until that Game 3 hiccup. They don’t want to give any chance for the Blazers to even this series up so this is the most important game of the series and we just think the cream will rise to the top here. Golden State has a very strong history in this series as they are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings and we don’t see this one as being very close as a motivated Warriors team takes care of business tonight to put the Blazers on the brink of elimination.

The Spurs looked mortal last time out and the Thunder looked very good but we still think the Spurs are the much better team here and expect them to bounce back in a big way. The Thunder will get their points here at home and we think the Spurs will concentrate more on offense than defense and we expect both teams to surpass the century mark here. San Antonio showed they can score on this team as they put up 124 in Game 1 and these totals have been adjusted way down from what the numbers were in the regular season, too far in our opinion. The Spurs aren’t going to panic after losing Game 2 at home. This team has seen it all and is the best-coached team in the league and they will be calm and business-like here and they will just go about their business and win this game. Even though the Spurs played a rare lousy game in Game 2 they still had a chance to win it at the end and the Thunder gave a great effort that we aren’t sure they can replicate. The Thunder are a popular upset pick in this series but we just don’t see it and we expect the Spurs to regain home-court advantage tonight.

We like the Hawks to make some adjustments here and keep this game closer than Game 1. Even though the Cavs won and covered Game 1 this team always has at least an extra point added to their line because they are such a public team and we think this is one of those series where the bookies should have lowered the line down to 6 or 6.5 for Game 2 as we think the Hawks will tighten up the defense and make some adjustments on offense and play better here and this team is much better than the Detroit club that Cleveland swept and they are just not going to roll over. This team plays excellent defense and they are very well coached and we expect a bounce back here tonight.

We liked the Blazers in Game 1 but the Warriors jumped all over them in the first quarter with hot shooting combined with very cold shooting from Portland and they got behind so bad that this really affected the look of the entire game. We expect the Blazers to play a much better game here and without Curry in the lineup for the Warriors this is a more even series than it would appear after Game 1. In fact, the Blazers outscored the Warriors 89-81 in the second through fourth quarters. We expect them to make some defensive adjustments here, too, to keep the Warriors from extended hot shooting streaks. Portland was down by 26 at one point in Game 1 and they came back and made it respectable at the end and you got the feeling if they would have added a minute or two to the clock that the Blazers would have covered. Both teams have trended to the under and we think we will see a much different game here in Game 2 as this one will be close and it will be much more low scoring.

Loved the way the Hawks played in their series against Boston. If not for a loss in OT the series would have been over much quicker and they recorded blowouts in the last two games of the series. Cleveland has been one of the most overhyped teams in the NBA this season and even though the east has overall been getting better year to year it is still not as good as the west and Cleveland is not on par with the best teams in the west but the oddsmakers line them like they are. That is part of the reason they are so poor against the number (39-44-3 ATS on the season). The Spurs are laying the same line against OKC tonight but they are a much better team and one of the better ATS teams in the league. Atlanta does great in this pointspread range and they are 15-6 ATS when getting between 5.0 and 7.5 points, and we expect a real close game here as the Cavs have had too much time off while Atlanta has major momentum on their side right now.

Just don’t think this big of a spread is warranted in this Game 1 matchup. The Blazers are one of the few teams to knock off the Warriors in the regular season – when Golden State was pretty much full strength – and this team is in fine form right now and playing some of their best basketball of the season. They knocked off the Clippers in 6 on Friday night and even though LA was injury ravaged they played a truly heroic game and it took a very strong effort for Portland to win that game. So they are in full playoff form right now and they have played three straight excellent games. Their shots are falling right now too and they don’t get more than a day off here so they will keep their positive momentum. The Warriors made it look easy against the Rockets but that team barely made the playoffs and this is a much better club they face tonight and this is where the loss of Curry really starts to hurt the team. We think this will be a close game and the Blazers should be free and loose here as their season goals have pretty much been met and anything above this is just a bonus. Golden State has a lot more pressure here and we don’t think the rest of the top players on this team have the same mental fortitude as Curry. Also, Curry has not been even ruled out for Game 2 yet but he could be back soon so the Blazers need to strike here while the iron is hot and play like this is Game 7.

The Spurs are the better team here. In fact, with Curry out for Golden State this is the clear-cut best team in the NBA right now in our eyes. And this team has had five nights off to rest and prepare for this series. That is a huge edge. Some teams might be rusty in this situation but we don’t think that will be the case at all for the veteran Spurs who have seen every possible playoff scenario in the past. Even though the Thunder covered all the matchups in the regular season this is the playoffs, and Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he will have his team ready. The Spurs were one of the best ATS teams in the league at home this season at 25-18 ATS and they were great as a big favorite with a 35-24 ATS mark when laying big points. Popovich will come up with a great defensive plan to slow down the OKC offense tonight and he has the soldiers to execute that plan as the Spurs were by far the strongest defensive team in the league and the Spurs can go toe-to-toe on offense with OKC as well rested and fresh. This one is a very easy call for us tonight.

We had the Blazers last time out and we expected the Clippers to look shellshocked and lost after losing CP3 and Blake Griffin to injury in the span of about 15 minutes. They looked horrible at Staples Center in Game 5 and got blown out. But they still had a chance for the series in that game and there was a lot of pressure on guys to step up. Now all the pressure switches to the Blazers and we don’t think they will handle it well. And the Clippers should play pretty lose and free and they really have nothing to lose here and no expectations since everyone has already handed the Blazers the series. Redick and Crawford were cold last time out and you won’t keep shooters like this cold for long and without all the pressure we think they will play well. The Blazers were just 1-4 ATS this season laying big points like this and you have to think a good coach like Doc Rivers will come up with a gameplan here to give the Clippers the best chance to be competitive.

Atlanta is the overall better team in this matchup and this line is more than fair on Thursday night. Atlanta has played very well in all but one of the games in this series and won Game 5 by almost 30 points. They have Boston on the ropes and should be able to deliver the death blow tonight. Boston would have more of a chance in this series if Avery Bradley was not hurt but even with Bradley in the lineup you feel this team is still a year away from being a serious contender. We think the Hawks have figured out Boston and Game 5 was the proof that this series is now a mismatch and the Celtics have a major uphill battle here. Atlanta did a real good job defensively on Isaiah Thomas in Game 5 and now he is hobbled with an ankle injury and we feel this is just the end of the line for a Celtics team that is very good but not yet as good as their adversary here tonight.

Stephen Curry is more important to his team than any other player in the league and we think this line is too big with him out of the lineup. The Rockets were blown out last time out and that is why the line is so large here but we expect them to keep it close tonight. They were in the game at the half last time out before crumbling in the second half. We think they will be able to put together more of a complete game here with Curry out as he makes everyone better on the Warriors and Klay Thompson, although a great player in his own right, is no Curry and is prone to bouts of inconsistency and Houston can focus more on slowing him down as he has most of his success in tandem with Curry. Houston has been good at bouncing back after a loss and is 5-2 ATS in their last seven in this situation and we think they keep it close but Golden State wins.

Toronto is the much better team in this matchup and despite the lack of playoff success we have to think they get a big statement win here at home in Game 5. This is a must-win game as if the Raps lose this they go back to Indiana Friday with the Pacers having a chance to close the series out. Toronto just couldn’t get anything going last time out as they were blown out in Indiana. But like most NBA teams, both of these clubs are much better at home than on the road and the Raptors are one of the best home teams in the NBA both SU and ATS. They are also 23-8 ATS at home in this series in the last 31 meetings and that is a long history of pointspread dominance. We are getting a short line here because of the result of the last game but we think the cream rises to the top tonight and we expect a strong performance from the home club here.

The Blazers rallied to win Game 3 and that puts more urgency on the Clippers to get a win here. This team has been in enough Game 7s that it knows it does not want to go there again so early in the playoffs with Golden State looming in the next round. The Clippers took the lead late in Game 3 but Portland took it back and the game was closer than the final score indicated even though the Clips did not play their best game and the Blazers played pretty well. But LA is one of the better road teams in the NBA and this first-round series is pretty much a mismatch and we expect the Clippers to play very strong defense here as we liked some of the things they have been doing in this series even though Portland hit some key shots in Game 3. LA has been very good in bounce-back situations all season and we expect them to take care of business here tonight and head back to Stapes Center with a chance to close this thing out in 5 games Wednesday night.

Things got very chippy in Game 3 and the refs were quick to call fouls. There were 54 free throw attempts made in Game 3 (214 total points scored) as opposed to 28 in Game 2 (161 points scored). We think the refs will be quick with the whistle again here as they don’t want this to evolve into a straight up brawl and these offenses are starting to get into a groove in this series and we think there is a great chance that both teams get over the century mark here. Neither team did anything amazing last game as far as FG% but the refs called a lot of fouls for easy points and the pace was swift. We expect the same kind of game here and think that both offenses will play well, especially Isaiah Thomas, who scored 40+ in Game 3 really seems to be in a zone. At the end of the day we expect Boston to win this game and thought that this line should be closer to 4.5 as they have a solid home court advantage and they have shown that the system works no matter which players are available and this is a balanced team that can absorb injuries better than others.  

We expect a close, low-scoring game here and think that the Mavs will bounce back at home after getting embarrassed in front of the home crowd in Game 3. Dallas has played some of the strongest defense in the league down the stretch of the regular season and we expect them to tighten things up big time and slow the game down here as the Thunder did whatever they wanted offensively in Game 3. This total has been adjusted too high and Games 1 and 2 went way under the total but because of Game 3 they have adjusted this line upwards by five points and we have this total handicapped under 200 tonight. Great value on the total and an underrated Mavs team that has been one of the better ATS teams all season and will be ready to make their last stand here in order to make this a series. We don’t think they will win because the Thunder have the clutch players to make a difference at the end of the game but we do expect a close game here and think the underdog is the way to go on the side.

Boston is down after going 0-2 in the games in Atlanta but don’t count them out yet. This team took Atlanta to the wire in Game 1 and even though they didn’t play well in Game 2 this team is back home now where they are a much better team than on the road. They have a great home-court advantage and are very well coached and they will be ready tonight despite some injuries. Boston was very good this season at home against winning teams as they went 12-7 ATS and they were also solid as a small favorite like the situation they are in tonight at 13-9 ATS. Boston was also underrated by the bookies at home a lot this season and we think that is the case tonight. Boston is in a must-win situation here and we think they respond with a big win here that easily covers the spread.

We are getting a great line here because Stephen Curry is doubtful for this game. We don’t think it will matter as the Warriors are the best team in the NBA and they have tons of weapons. The Rockets looked completely disinterested in the first couple games of this series and this was a down year for the team and they know they won’t be advancing past this round. The much better Houston team got a win here at home last season in the WCF playoff matchup but they were also beat by 35 here and that team had it together more than this year’s group that barely made the playoffs. Harden and Howard have been at odds lately and that just hurts the chemistry of this team. With Curry injured the Warriors want to end this series ASAP to give him more time to rest for the second round. We feel there is a good chance for a double-digit win tonight.

The Blazers were another team blown out in Game 1 that we expect to come back strong here in Game 2. The Clippers looked great in the second half of Game 1 and their defense on Damian Lillard was exceptional. But Portland will make adjustments. What we have seen from the Clippers in the past is that they can look championship-caliber one game and look lost the next. Heck, this can even happen from half to half with this team. Once again the Clippers have a lot of pressure on them in this series and this playoffs in general and this team just hasn’t handled the pressure well in the past and we expect a close game here and the Blazers will play a much more complete game. The Blazers were very good ATS on the road this season and also it’s very telling that the Clippers don’t face a larger line than in Game 1 here after the blowout we saw in that game.

We think this is going to be a very close series and we give the Clippers home-court advantage and not much else. We handicapped this game at -3.5 and we knew the bookies would open at a much higher number. Once the Blazers got their early-season kinks out this team started to play excellent basketball. They were not expected by anyone to make the playoffs this year but here they are, as a No. 5 seed no less. They should be loose and free here and all the pressure is on the Clippers in this series. And as we have seen in the playoffs the last few years this team does not handle pressure too well. Blake Griffin is not in game shape yet and we don’t think he will be his normal beast self, at least early in this series. If the Clippers flame out before the Western Conference Finals there will likely be some big changes within the organization and that creates even more pressure because everyone knows this. Of all the lower seeds in the west this Portland team is the most dangerous and the Clippers are the most vulnerable of the higher seeds and we think this Game 1 will be extremely close and an outright upset would not surprise us. The Blazers have covered in four of the last five meetings in LA, and we see the same result here for Game 1.

Toronto has just dominated this series lately and we don’t see this playoff series as being any different and we think the Raptors will make a statement here in Game 1. Toronto won three of four games against the Pacers this season and they covered in all three wins. They are 22-7 ATS in this series long term, and there aren’t many better betting trends than that in the NBA. Toronto obviously matches up well here and they are a very dominant home team that is often underrated here at home (23-18 ATS this season). Indiana has just been so inconsistent this season and we just think they would have to play their best game to cover this number in Game 1 and we don’t see it happening. These teams played on 4/8 and the Raptors won by 13 on this same floor with Kyle Lowry out. They are probably looking at a similar result tonight and we think there is a great chance that the Raptors make quick work of this series and win it in 4 or 5. We think they will make a statement here in Game 1 in front of a raucous home crowd.

Rose and Gasol are out here for the Bulls and we think this is just too many points to be giving the Sixers tonight. The Bulls have been a bad bet all year at home and they have failed more often than not when laying big points like this. The Sixers have been good bouncing back from a bad game lately and are 4-0 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. We think the Bulls just want this season over with and we don’t expect a very good performance from them tonight. They probably do enough to win but not cover this big number. Philly has been playing hard with limited talent and we think they want to end the season on a positive note. These teams went to overtime in the last meeting, in January, and we expect this game to be cloer than the oddsmakers think.

The Clippers are locked into the No. 4 seed for the NBA Playoffs. The Grizzlies can finish anywhere from 5 to 7 depending on how the next two days shake out. If the Grizzlies were to finish No. 5 then they would play the Clippers. That is a long shot but that is the absolute best-case scenario for the Clippers to play the Grizzlies who are down two injured starters that won’t be back for the playoffs. Portland would be a much tougher matchup for the Clippers and what motivation do they have here to play hard tonight? Blake Griffin is getting back into game shape and we think that Doc Rivers will tinker with some lineups here and probably give the starters reduced minutes. The goal for this game is to get Griffin some minutes and for the bench to continue to contribute. Memphis will play hard here and they always match up well with the Clips and these two teams are rivals and we think the Grizzlies will play hard tonight against a disinterested Clippers team.

Just have to go with the more motivated team tonight. We had this line at Houston -6 with a lean to the Rockets at that number so we like this number even more. Houston is on the outside looking in right now for the playoff picture as they are in the No. 9 spot trailing Dallas and Utah, who play tonight. With a win here they can gain some ground on one of those teams. Minnesota has won three straight and has been playing very well. But all three of those games were on the road, and tonight they come back home where they have been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 13-25-1 ATS. They are just 5-15 ATS here on the season playing against teams with losing records as will be the case tonight. Minnesota has been playing well but this team thrives in the role of the big underdog but they normally fall flat in situations like this and we think the desperate Rockets take care of business tonight against an inferior opponent.

The Magic have been one of the best bets in the NBA catching bigtime points as they are 7-1 ATS ad a dog of nine or more points. This young team always plays well with a chip on their shoulders and we think this will be a very close game. This is a regional rivalry and the Magic actually won just two nights ago when these teams played in Orlando. None of the last seven games has been decided by more than nine points. Orlando has won and covered in five of their last seven games and this team is playing well and looks like one that wants to finish the season off strong and with some momentum heading into next season. This is one of the better ATS teams in the league and they are underrated on a nightly basis. Victor Oladipo is out with a concussion and that is a reason we are getting a really nice line here but this team has plenty of young talent and we think they will step up here in what we expect to be a very competitive game.

It looks like the Clippers plan to play all the starters here and even though the Mavs need this win to clinch the playoffs we think the Clippers will want to get into playoff-ready mode here and they are the much stronger team with a full roster. We expect the home team to notch a comfortable win here. The Clippers bench has gotten a lot of extra playing time lately and they have played very well. Jamal Crawford especially. And the starters have played very sparingly lately so they should be fresh and ready for a big game here. Dallas has been playing well, no doubt, but that has been against a pretty easy schedule and this is by far the toughest matchup they have had in their last six games, all wins. We had the Clippers -8 here and since our number is on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 that makes this a very strong play on Sunday.

This is the final game at Sleep Train Arena for the Kings and this is one of the hottest tickets in town in Sacramento and they are having ceremonies and former players in town and a bunch of hoopla. We think the Kings will try hard here for the win with the spotlight on them. This team has a lot of talent. But they have not always given the effort. But there is a reason to think they will tonight in the last game at this arena. The Thunder are locked into the No. 3 spot in the West and they should rest some guys tonight. We like this line even if they don’t, but there is always a chance for a late scratch here and we expect the Kings to play their full roster in this marquee matchup. Sacramento actually normally plays pretty well in this series and have covered in four of the last five matchups. We think this will be a close game and if the Thunder really don’t care then an upset could be in order on Saturday night.

This is a very possible first-round preview for the NBA Playoffs next weekend. Toronto is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed and they have absolutely no motivation in this game. The Pacers are one of four teams fighting for the last two playoff spots in the east. They need to keep winning in order to secure their spot in the dance (they clinch with a win here) as well as to avoid Cleveland in Round 1 by falling to the No. 8 seed, and they are currently in the No. 7 position. Toronto is more focused on getting ready for the playoffs and you never know who will or won’t suit up for this team tonight with nothing to play for and Indiana will be playing with the intensity of a playoff game. There is a reason this line is so large for the Pacers on the road against one of the best teams in the east, but we don’t think it’s large enough as the Raptors will probably not want to tip their hand to a potential first-round opponent and they probably don’t care about winning this game much if at all.

The Kings just run run run and they don’t play any defense and the Wolves are a team that likes to run and plays shoddy defense as well and we think this one will be a barnburner tonight that will be a fun game to watch for those that like scoring. With nothing to play for, why not make the fans happy? The Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA and one of the highest scoring, and their totals have gone higher than normal lately as they have gone over in four of six games despite some high posted totals. We think this is a letdown spot for the Wolves after beating Golden State in overtime last time out for the biggest win of the year. What do they have to play for moving forward? Not much. This team is already looking towards next year with all the young talent and they did their work by beating Golden State so there is not much left to play for this season. We expect a poor defensive effort here but they will be able to score on this Sacramento defense. With a near-full roster for the Kings we think they will play well here in one of their final home games. They have had a pretty tough schedule lately so this is a good spot for a convincing win. Remember, before that Warriors game the Wolves had lost five straight ATS and because of their big win Tuesday we think they are overvalued tonight.

Golden State is another team that has lost that killer instinct. They have covered in only three of their last nine games. Part of the reason is the stress of playing for this record to beat the Bulls all-time regular season mark. We think this is a stupid idea and it shows this team has overinflated egos. They need to be thinking about the playoffs and repeating as champs, and this misguided focus has caused them to not play up to the level we are used to seeing. Thankfully for our line tonight they pounded Portland last time out and that has caused this line to be overinflated. The Wolves have not been playing great but they normally get up for games like this. They have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and the one loss was by 13, so they did not embarrass themselves. After some bad recent results they will want to play well here and this is one of the last highlight games of their season before the offseason starts next week. They will play hard here, and this team has a lot of young talent and they get up for marquee opponents. Minnesota is an amazing 13-3 ATS on the road against winning teams, so this is where they do their best work in the situation we see them in tonight. They are also 15-8 ATS this season when getting eight or more points so they are often undervalued as an underdog. Golden State has San Antonio on deck so that is another distraction.

Dallas has dominated this series, winning six straight matchups. They won the last meeting by 27 points. This is a must-win game for the Mavs while the Timberwolves have nothing to play for and won’t have the same urgency as the road team. Dallas is one of three teams fighting for the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the west. Dallas is a streaky team. They followed a three-game losing streak with three straight wins heading into this matchup. This team is definitely one to follow when they are hot and this squad has covered in five of their last seven games overall so they are underrated by the oddsmakers. We had this line handicapped at Dallas -6.5 so we think there is some nice value here. Minnesota has been one of the worst betting teams at home as they are 13-24-1 ATS this season on their home court. Dallas is 20-17-1 ATS on the road, where they are underrated again today. Dallas has covered in five of the last six meetings, and we just doubt that Minnesota comes to play with the same intensity as the Mavs do today. If this is a playoff team it has to win this type of game against an overmatched opponent.

This game is a must-win for both teams but we think the Rockets are in a better position for a big win here at home on Thursday night. The Bulls are on the outside looking in for the playoffs in the east while the Rockets are one of three teams with 37 wins vying for the last two playoff spots in the west. Even though these teams have almost identical records the Rockets seem to be on the way up and we think they will make the playoffs while the Bulls have all sorts of problems right now and this is a team trending down. We don’t think the Bulls will be in the postseason. Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson are banged up tonight and will probably not be at 100% while the Rockets are pretty healthy. Houston has won two of three and beat the Cavs on the road last time out, and even though LeBron didn’t play in that game they should come in here with a lot of confidence. Even though Chicago was off on Wednesday this will be their third game in four nights and this team just doesn’t have great morale right now and they recently had an internal meeting after a blowout loss at Orlando and that didn’t produce any positive results as they went out and lost at home to Atlanta the next game out. Chicago has dropped four of their last five overall and we see them trailing off in the fourth quarter here since this team has played a lot in the last few nights and we think there is a great chance for a Rockets double-digit win here.

We think this is a great spot for a double-digit blowout by the home team. The Bucks are a full 10 games better than the Suns in the win column and they have had a disappointing season and fallen below expectations. But they are the much better team here in this matchup. The Bucks have had a tough stretch lately. They have lost five straight. They have had an incredibly tough schedule, however, since all of their last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today. But that just means we are getting a much better line here than if this team has had some better results on the scoreboard. After losing five straight they have to give a very strong effort here at home. The Suns have had a more favorable schedule lately that has seen them cover some games. This team plays hard despite a lack of talent. But we don’t see them getting up for this game against an out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a playoff team. The Bucks have been very solid in this pointspread range as they are 8-4 ATS of a favorite of 7.5 or fewer points. This is a good chance for the Bucks to get back on track and they have had three days off to prepare for this game and rest, and there’s no reason to think we won’t see the best effort from Milwaukee tonight.

The Hornets already beat Philly by 20 on this same court earlier this month and we don’t see why this one will be any different. Charlotte is quietly playing some of the best basketball in the Eastern Conference and this team continues to be underrated. In fact, they won both meetings in this series by 20 or more points. Philly has covered three straight, but those were all on the road. This team is just 15-20-1 ATS at home this season. They are often overvalued at home where most teams have a great home-court advantage. We just don’t see that big of an edge for Philly at home with the apathetic fans and not many more wins (6) than they have on the road (3). This is the first game back after a four-game road trip for Philly, and that is traditionally a bad spot for a young team like this that’s not mentally tough. Charlotte has had a couple days off and we expect a big game from them tonight.

The Clippers have won two straight and they looked very impressive vs. the Nuggets yesterday. Even though they are on a back-to-back they played very early Sunday in the matinee and this is the latest game on the board Monday so they will have plenty of time to recharge. Of course, Doc Rivers used to coach for the Celtics and by all accounts he is very well liked by his Clippers players and there’s no doubt they will want to play hard for him against his old team. And no doubt the Clippers are a lot better team than the Celtics and this line indicates home-court advantage and not much more. Even though Blake Griffin isn’t back on the court yet, he will be soon and we think that gave the Clippers an extra spark on Sunday and we think that will carry over here. The Celtics have had a very easy schedule lately that has masked some of their deficiencies but we don’t think this team is in top form right now.

We think the Raptors are the much better team in this matchup and we expect them to take care of business here on the road. These teams played earlier this month in Toronto and the Rockets scored a big road win. Revenge doesn’t factor into our handicapping much for NBA but it does play into things when the previous matchup was recent like this one. But other than that game Toronto has covered in four of the last six meetings. This team is very solid on the road and they actually have the same amount of wins on the road that Houston has at home. Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss at Boston and they will be eager to play better here against a very beatable opponent. The Rockets have lost three straight and are just not playing well right now. And this team is also one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season.

10 Unit Play. #816 Take Oregon over Duke (Thursday 10:05 pm TBS) It is not too often you will find the Blue Devils as an underdog this early in the tournament but it is for good reason on Thursday night. Oregon has been playing outstanding basketball of late and they have the depth and size to really hurt this Duke team. The Ducks have won 10 straight games and only a couple of those games have been competitive. Oregon is better at both ends of the floor and I just cannot see Duke winning this game unless they get hot from the three-point line. Duke is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament Games. 

The Pacers have dominated this series with nine straight wins. They have covered in eight straight meetings covering more than four years time. The Pelicans will be without their three best players here. Tyreke Evans is out for the season. Anthony Davis has been recently shut down. Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely and is likely to be shut down soon. When Jrue Holiday is your go-to man, you know you have problems. The Pacers are in the thick of the logjam in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to keep winning in order to solidify their position. They have a big chance to create some separation here with this game and also a road game at Brooklyn on Saturday. The Pelicans have not played well as a big underdog, cashing in just 30 percent of those games with a 3-7 ATS mark. This team stunk even when it was healthy but without these key players and having Davis shelved for the remainder of the season, what motivation does the rest of the team have to rise up here against an out-of-conference opponent? Healthy Pacers win big here.

The Clippers are one of the few teams that match up well with the Warriors. They are the last team to beat Golden State in a playoff series and this is their biggest rival. They have covered in four of the last six meetings and we love them getting these big points tonight. We think this will be a close game. The Clippers have lost four of six and haven’t been playing well but they always get up for this matchup and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight as this will be their only chance to avoid a Warriors sweep on the regular season. Golden State didn’t look very good in their last two games in a loss at San Antonio and a close win at Minnesota. It’s hard for a team to keep up that killer instinct all season long and this team looks a bit vulnerable right now. The Clippers are one of the teams that has what it takes to win at Oracle. Not saying they will win here, but we think this will be a very competitive game.

These teams are pretty even except for the fact that the Bucks are really good at home (21-13) and the Jazz are really bad on the road (11-23).Milwaukee is quietly playing very well right now. They have won four of their last five games. Utah has won three of four, but their road victory in that stretch was over struggling Sacramento and they showed their true road colors last night in a loss to also-struggling Chicago. So Utah isn’t good on the road and they have to play a back-to-back here on the road in an earlier-than-normal start. And Milwaukee is well rested as they have had two nights off and have generally played a very light schedule lately. The Bucks can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if they lose this game and we expect them to play strong at home in what is a bad spot for the visitors.