Sports Picks & Predictions

The Hornets are coming in on a back-to-back after getting smacked around by the Magic on the road last night. So this is a quick turnaround game for them in this early Thursday start. The Raptors are the better team here and we think this line is a bit short. They have had two days of rest here. They are 4-0 SU this season and 3-1 ATS with two or more days rest. Also, Nicolas Batum is a main reason why the Hornets have been playing so well lately, and he left last night’s game with an illness and is questionable here. His loss or even limited minutes would be a big blow to the home team’s chances here. Toronto is also 4-1 ATS on the road against above-.500 teams. The Hornets did not look good at all last night in a blowout loss at Orlando and they face an even tougher test tonight. Even though this one is at home we expect the Raps to score the road win here tonight.

This is just too many points in this matchup. The Bucks looked awful last night in their blowout loss to the LA Lakers in this same building. But they were “hungover” from the euphoria of handing Golden State their first loss over the weekend and that was just a bad spot for them. They should play a lot better here, especially after a tongue lashing from Coach Jason Kidd after the game. Hopefully Greg Monroe can go here but if not we still think this line offers nice value. The Clippers are 1-3 ATS when laying more than eight points this season. This is the lone home game after five road games and with much more important games with San Antonio and Houston on deck. This Clippers team has shown a lack of focus this season and we don’t expect them to play too hard here. Milwaukee will slow the pace down here and this should be a low-scoring game, which makes the points all the more valuable for the dog. Milwaukee has covered in three of the last four meetings and has revenge for a loss to LA in Milwaukee earlier this month.

10 Unit Play. #528 Take Richmond over Old Dominion (7 pm ASN) Both of these teams had high expectations entering this season but the Monarchs are in a freefall at the moment. Old Dominion has lost five of their last six games and they have yet to record a quality win on the season. Richmond returns four starters from last season and they have won four straight home games. They already have wins against Northern Iowa and Wake Forest and will win this game by double digits. The Monarchs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Richmond is 17-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 27 games overall. 

These teams played a few nights ago in Denver and the Nuggets won in OT. Minnesota led most of the way and were up by as many as 18 but they took their foot off the gas and let the Nuggets get back in the game. We feel the Wolves are a better team here (much more upside this season at least) and that they will make the necessary adjustments to play much better here at home. This is a bad scheduling spot for the Nuggets as they have to travel on a back-to-back after playing a fast-paced game vs. Houston last night. Minnesota had the night off. And Denver is without their starting PG here as Emmanuel Mudlay is a candidate for rookie of the year but was hurt in the last matchup between these teams. Anything under 7 is more than fair in this matchup. We don’t think revenge is a great NBA handicapping angle but it does come into play when teams have met recently, and we expect Minnesota to play a more complete game at home.

Despite being a very public team the Spurs are 8-4 ATS at home this season. This team is 7-3 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more this season and that is just an amazing accomplishment since not many teams have that kind of success when laying that many points. And with Golden State getting all the love from the media lately this team is a bit off the radar right now and the odds haven’t been shaded as they have been for the Warriors. Utah has played a very demanding schedule lately and they come in on a back-to-back playing their third game in four nights. And they went to overtime on Sunday vs. OKC so they should be pretty exhausted here. Not a good state to be in against the Spurs who won’t take it easy on a team like this and will go for the jugular even when up big. The Spurs have dominated this series ATS also, covering in 24 of the last 34 meetings.

Boston played an amazing game last night at home against the undefeated Warriors but ended up losing in double OT. But what an effort they put out. We don’t think they will have much left to give in this game tonight. Not only will this be their third game in four nights but they have to travel on the road to play an early start in this one after a double-OT game which was probably one of the biggest games of the regular season for them. That is really hard to bounce back from, and we expect them to come into this one totally flat. Charlotte also is playing their third game in four nights. But they are at home here and that gives them a big edge over the Celtics. They just demolished the Grizzlies last night in Memphis and they won so big that the starters got to rest in the fourth quarter. That is another huge advantage for the Hornets here. The Hornets have quietly become one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. They have the second-best winning percentage in the conference and have won 14 of their last 18 games. They enter this game on a four-game winning streak and they have covered in all of those games. This team has some nice value right now since they don’t have any big names and are not on the radar of a lot of bettors. We had this line handicapped at seven because of this bad scheduling spot for Boston and their marathon game last night and this line is just filled with value.

10 Unit Play. #550 Take California over Saint Mary’s (3:30 pm PAC-12 Network) Just not a believer in the Gaels this season. They lost a lot of talent form last year and this will be their first road game of the season. They are 6-0 but have not really been challenged beating up on a bunch Northern California schools that are not very good (Stanford included). The Bears are a perfect 6-0 at Haas Pavilion and all six of those victories have come by a higher margin than today’s posted number. This team is loaded with talent and they will enter this game having won three straight. Playing in this hostile environment will be too much for the Gales to overcome. 

Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams lately and Orlando one of the best, but we feel like the oddsmakers have made a too-big adjustment here to this number and Cleveland is the clear play tonight here laying this small number. Stock on the Cavs is low right now. They have lost three of four coming into this game and have covered just one of their last seven games. But they have been overrated by the oddsmakers to start the season and they have played a very tough schedule. Their recent losses were to Washington, at New Orleans (in OT) and at Miami. We think all those teams are better than the Magic talent-wise, and because of losing three of four the Cavs should be very focused here for this game. Orlando has played very well and they have been kind to bettors. This team is ahead of schedule in its rebuild. But the Cavs have a much higher level of talent. This team sometimes sleepwalks during the regular season but with recently losing three straight we expect them to play very well here, and they get Iman Shumpert back tonight and he is going to be a key player for this team moving forward. We love the historical trends that back the Cavs here, too, as they have dominated this series. Cleveland has won 11 straight in this series. They are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Orlando. We see those trends continuing on Friday.

10 Unit Play. #548 Take Minnesota over South Dakota State (8 pm ESPN 3) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. The Gophers are not losing two games against teams from South Dakota in the span of four days. Minnesota lost two South Dakota on Saturday in double overtime and that setback has shifted the line greatly in our favor. Minnesota is a perfect 17-0 against South Dakota State (17-0 at Williams Arena). For being a mid-major the Jackrabbits has played a very weak schedule in 2015-2016, with only one game coming against a team from a Power 5 conference. That came against TCU, a team that is going nowhere fast. These two teams share one common opponent with Minnesota beating UMKC by 18 points and South Dakota State losing to the Kangaroos by 7 points (only true road game of the season). The Jackrabbits are the team to beat in the Summit League this season and they do have experience but they just do not recruit the same type of player that Minnesota does. If they shoot lights out so be it, but let’s call this game for what it is: a cash game for South Dakota State and a likely win for Minnesota with a biased crew of officials. Prior to that loss by Minnesota on Saturday, Minnesota had won 47 consecutive nonconference games at home. The Golden Gophers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage of over .600.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

We think Houston is a good Buy Low team right now and they seem to be putting it together finally after a really rough start to the season. They have won and covered three straight. They have now won five of six overall. This team always had the talent in place but the rotations were off to start the year and now they seem to have everything figured out and when this team plays well they can start covering a lot of lines as they are generally ignored mostly by the betting public. The Nets were one of the hottest ATS teams there for a couple weeks but they have suffered two very bad losses in a row. They have some key injuries right now they are dealing with that the general betting public won’t notice but that are significant to this team’s chances for success. Houston is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Brooklyn/New Jersey and they will get another big win and cover here tonight.

Orlando has won five straight games. Kudos to them. But look who they have played: Knicks, Bucks, Celtics, Timberwolves and Utah (without Rudy Gobert). They face a big step up in competition tonight. The Clippers will likely be without CP3 and Redick. They did not look good with this roster last time out against Indiana. That is a much better team than the one they face tonight, however, and LA has proved in the past that they can play very well with Paul out of the lineup. When he missed time last season that is when this team started to play really well. Really like the team Orlando is building but this line has been way overadjusted and we had this one at seven points, so great value here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #328 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Air Force Falcons (MWC Championship Game, Saturday, 7:30 pm ESPN 2) Nobody expected the Aztecs to run the table in the MWC going a perfect 8-0 and they have yet to have a competitive game. Air Force still is a triple option and I expect the Aztec defense to be ready for it, as they have the best defense in the conference. The host team has won both MWC Championship games and tonight should be no different. SDSU has the best player in the league in Donnel Pumphrey and Air Force will have no answer for him, as the Falcons gave up 377 rushing yards last week against New Mexico. San Diego State is 4-1 against Air Force and a perfect 5-0 ATS. SDSU is 6-2 in their last 8 home games against Mountain West teams. Air Force is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Mountain West games. San Diego State has won 8 straight games by double digits and 10 straight home games against MWC teams (25 point margin of victory). This is a high powered train and we will ride them to another victory. 

10 Unit Play. #739 Take California over Wyoming (3 pm CBSSN) The Bears are a better team than their 5-2 record would indicate and they are facing a major rebuilding team in Wyoming. The Cowboys have not played a power five team this season and they have losses to Indiana State and Montana State. California has a major edge in talent and despite playing hard, the Cowboys will not be able to keep pace. Wyoming is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win in their previous outing. 

10 Unit Play. #562 Take Iowa over Florida State (9:15 pm ESPN U) The Hawkeyes went just 1-2 in Orlando but they played excellent competition throughout that tournament and are ready for some home cooking tonight in Iowa City. The Seminoles have not played a challenging schedule and this will be there first true road game of the season. Iowa has four senior starters and they are a great offensive team and can beat you inside or out. Florida State will struggle to keep up with them and expect the Hawkeyes to knock them out early similar to what they did to Marquette. Florida State is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against Big 10 teams. Iowa is 11-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 15 games played on Wednesday.  

Love getting the points in a game like this where we think the underdog has a great chance for the straight up win. We think the Hawks are a bit down this season from where they were last year and the Raptors are a bit better. They are surely one of the betting stars of this young NBA season at 12-6 ATS while the Hawks have a losing ATS record at 9-10. The Raps have had a couple nights rest coming into this game and we think they are primed for a strong showing. They are playing really good defense right now and can hang with the Hawks offensively. They are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Atlanta. This is a very live dog tonight.

The Bucks have not been playing well and are coming in on a back-to-back but you just have to love this line tonight against the horrible Nuggets. The Bucks are a much better team overall and we think they score a comfortable win here tonight. The Nuggets have lost six straight and they failed to cover in their last five games. This is despite getting some very favorable lines. The Bucks are 3-0 ATS on back-to-backs this season, and this team is young enough where we don’t think they will be bothered tonight. This has all the looks of a “get right” game for the home team tonight. It looks like Milwaukee has scrapped their run and gun philosophy and will be concentrating more on playing solid defense, and they should be able to hold Denver to a real low score here.

Boston is just the better team in this matchup, and this line is more than fair for them here tonight. Oddsmakers got a little aggressive with this Orlando team after a hot ATS start, but they have come back down to Earth a bit. They have covered two straight but before that had lost four straight ATS. Evan Fournier is not a household name by any means but he leads the Magic this season in scoring and steals and is very questionable to play tonight and this team will really suffer if he does not play or is not 100%. This team doesn’t have the depth to make up for an injury like this. Boston has also dominated this series and is on a 11-4-1 ATS run in this series. Boston was one of the best ATS teams last season and this team has the same makeup this year. They did so well by covering numbers just like this one Sunday night. We think they take care of business here with a comfortable win.

10 Unit Play. #259 Take New York Giants over Washington Redskins (Sunday 1 pm FOX) I feel the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and expect a big effort from them coming off of their bye week. Washington looked terrible last week against Carolina with just 10 first downs and 185 yards of offense. The Redskins defense is coming apart, giving up a ton of points of late. New York has beaten Washington five straight times (5-0 ATS), including a double-digit victory in Week 3 this season. I just trust Eli Manning more than I do Kirk Cousins and expect a big performance from the Giants in this contest. New York is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. 

Brooklyn isn’t a very good team this season. But they are better than the oddsmakers rate them. They have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-1 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points. The Cavs are always overrated by the bookies. This team seems to sleepwalk through the regular season sometimes. And they are good enough to do it. In the horrible Eastern Conference they can afford to take some nights off and work on chemistry and cohesion and still rack up the wins. But the bookies line them like every game is a playoff game. They want to stay healthy and set themselves up in a good position for the playoffs. They are only 7-9 ATS this season despite a 12-4 SU record. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. They played a real hard-fought game last night in Charlotte. They took that game a lot more seriously than they will take this one. Cleveland does just enough to win, but they have not done well laying big points. They are 2-6 ATS this season when laying six or more points. Brooklyn has a strong history here in Cleveland as they are 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings. They are 7-0 ATS when playing on two days of rest. They have also covered two of the last three in this series.

10 Unit Play. #195 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Illinois Fighting Illini (3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats have rebounded nicely after a two-game losing streak to win their last four games. They are coming off a nice victory at Wisconsin and have a big advantage since this neutral game in being played in Chicago. The Illini need this game to become bowl eligible, but they will not get it since Northwestern is the better-rounded team. Illinois has lost five of their last six games, with their only win during this time coming against hapless Purdue. Northwestern is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

Utah has been pretty good against the spread this season and is a bit underrated by the oddsmakers. They are definitely not flashy and that is why they are able to stay under the radar, but they are enjoying some success behind their excellent defense. OKC is overrated right now and this team has not been playing well with Durant out. He is doubtful to play tonight. They have won only two of their last five games, and they failed to cover in any of those contests. They come in here on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Utah is well rested with two nights off. They should be able to accomplish their defensive goals against an OKC team that should be very fatigued here. Utah has had a lot of success in this series at home as they have won three straight in Utah and they have covered in four straight meetings at home. OKC has covered only one game on the road this season and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight.

10 Unit Play. #473 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:05 pm CBS) Thankfully this game got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, as the Chargers are certainly a team nobody wants to watch. Kansas City still has talent and they are starting to put it together having won three straight games including a dominating victory at Denver last week. The Chargers have just beaten Detroit and Cleveland this year and their home field advantage is nonexistent with the rumors that they are moving to Los Angeles next year. Kansas City beat San Diego both times in 2014 and the Chargers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 years coming off a bye. San Diego has an uninspiring coach who will likely be replaced next year and they are just playing out the string. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) The Eagles have a solid defense and a terrible offense. This team has trouble moving the football at all through the ground or the air and they are one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and this is causing their defense to wear down as the season goes on. We went against Boston College in their last two home games as top plays and easily collected on both of them despite so-so teams in Virginia Tech and NC State. Notre Dame has a clear path into the playoffs if they just win out, but expect them to go for some style points in this night game on national TV. Both teams will be pumped about playing at Fenway Park, but I just do not see Boston College being able to score enough points to stay within this posted number. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Notre Dame gradually increases their lead to wins this by close to 28 points. 

The Jazz are a bit underrated by the oddsmakers right now. They have now covered five of their last seven games, and we think they are the better team in this matchup. We had the Jazz handicapped at -2 in this game, and we expect them to get the win tonight. This is a strange scheduling spot for Dallas tonight. This is a lone home game sandwiched between a string of road games. That does not bode well for the home team. Utah is perfect ATS as an underdog this season at 4-0 ATS. This team is playing lights-out defense right now and we see them shutting down the Dallas offense. The Mavs have been playing well but they have had a very easy schedule lately. They also have OKC and Memphis coming up on the schedule the next few days and will probably be looking ahead to those games more than this opponent tonight.

7 Unit Play. #723 Take Iowa over Marquette (9 pm FS1) The Golden Eagles will play hard but as we found out last season they just do not have the talent to compete with the top teams in the Big 10. Marquette overhauled the roster for a second consecutive year and I see them going thrown more growing pains again this season. Iowa is always a tough team to figure out but they return four starters from last season and usually play well during the nonconference portion of the season. The Golden Eagles struggled to put away two mid-majors to open up the season and they actually lost to Belmont last week. Marquette was just 13-19 last season and a terrible 4-14 in the Big East. Iowa has covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 games overall (1 push). Marquette is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Big Ten flexes its muscle on Thursday night. 

The Magic are very underrated by the oddsmakers right now. That is why they are 8-3 against the spread thus far this season. This team has been rebuilding for some time now and they have assembled some excellent young talent that is finally putting it together. We think they are further along in their development than the Timberwolves are, and we think there is value in this line tonight. This is a bad spot for the Wolves. They are coming off a big upset win last night in Miami. So they are in a back-to-back situation on the road, which is never a good thing. This is also their third game in four nights. Orlando has had three nights off so will be well rested. They could also get Victor Oladipo back tonight, and that would be a real bonus here. These teams don’t meet often, but Orlando has won seven of nine in this series and covered in eight of nine.

The Warriors have come out blazing to start the 2015-16 season. But a team just can’t play with the same intensity every game. That showed itself last time out as the Warriors needed OT to get by the lowly Nets at home. Like that game, this one is an out-of-conference game. But this is one against a much better team. Just like Golden State, Toronto is 7-4 ATS this season. Everyone wants to play well against the Warriors and we think Toronto will bring their best game. And this is an inflated line, although the Warriors have been doing well against inflated lines this season. But the Warriors have one of their biggest games of the season on Thursday at Staples Center against the Clippers, and we think they will be looking ahead to that game since this game is of little importance since Toronto resides in the East.

Memphis has had a slow start to the season, but there is no denying the talent there. They have played a very tough schedule to start the season. Because of that slow start they won’t overlook this Minnesota team today. Minnesota got out to a hot start and surprised some team along the way. They have reverted to who we thought they were recently, however, with three straight losses, and only one of them was close. Memphis has taken care of the lousy teams they have faced for the most part. This Minnesota team has some young talent, but they are a long way from putting it all together. Their defense has been particularly bad in their last four games, and this should be an easy game for the Grizzlies as long as they stick to the gameplan. We think both teams will struggle on offense here but that Memphis will do enough on defense to get a comfortable win here. This has always been a good spot for Memphis as a small favorite and we don’t think today will be any different.

10 Unit Play. #253 Take Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against Tampa Bay numerous times this season including last week against another NFC East foe. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs this season but they have shown some improvement under Matt Cassel and are getting healthy at other spots besides quarterback. The Cowboys have covered 8 of their last 11 road games. QB Jameis Winston is just not ready to win consistently in the league and Tampa Bay is just 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium this season. This will not be a pretty game to watch but getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.

Denver is one of our fade teams for the early season and we like this spot to go against them on Friday night. This is another revenge spot. These teams played on opening night and the Nuggets shocked the Rockets in Houston with a 20-point blowout win. This Houston team is obviously trying to work some things out early in the season as they are coming off a home loss to the previously-winless Nets. But they had won four straight before that, including impressive wins over the Clippers and Thunder. We know they won’t take this Houston team lightly because of that last early-season result. Besides that Rockets game the Nuggets have been blown out by the good teams they have played. They are poor at defending the three, one of the Rockets strengths, and they have a team that is prone to a lot of turnovers, which will play right into the Rockets hands.

10 Unit Play. #840 Take Wisconsin over Western Illinois (9 pm BTN) The Badgers are in a rebuilding year with only two starters returning but they open-up play at the Kohl Center against one of the worst division one teams in the country. Wisconsin still plays a system and great defense and that will allow them to pull away late and win this game by 30+ points. The Leathernecks are predicted to finish last in the Summit League and won just 3 conference games last year. Western Illinois is 7-29 ATS in their last 29 road games. Wisconsin beat a similar team in the exhibition season by 55 points. 

7 Unit Play. #762 Take Stanford -7 over Green Bay (9 pm PAC-12 Network) Stanford has been known to lay an egg in some early season games but they cannot afford that to happen this season, as Johnny Dawkins is once again on the hot seat. The Cardinal were playing good basketball at the end of the season and won the NIT to become one of the few teams to end their season with a victory. The Cardinal have to replace much of their talent from last year but they still have size and should be able to out muscle the Phoenix. The Cardinal got to play together in Italy this summer and that should only help them this season.

But this play is mostly going against Green Bay, as the Phoenix have to replace their coach and all-everything player. Keifer Sykes now plays in the NBADL and he was two time conference player of the year for a team that dominated the Horizon League regular season but choked against Valparaiso in the conference tournament last year. They also lost their coach in Brian Wardle who seemed to understand the writing on the wall making a lateral move (if that) to Bradley. This is a rebuild situation fort Linc Darner and this team is going to struggle compared to the last few years. Stanford picked up a bunch of nonconference wins in the NIT last year and they have now covered 7 of their last 9 games out of conference. Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Green Bay is making the trip to Stanford for a check and you can bet that the PAC-12 does not want to see Stanford start off with a loss (ie the refs Stanford hires for this game). This spread should be double digits and we will take advantage of a soft line. 

Even though the Suns have had a few days off between games, we still think the Clippers are a lot better of a team and expect them to get the win tonight, and this line is right as we think this number should be closer to 5. LA is on a back-to-back, after losing last night in Dallas, but the Clippers bench is very strong this season and they have the players to weather this back-to-back situation. This is a more important game to LA than the one last night was since Phoenix is in the division and one of the three teams with a legitimate shot at the division (Golden State will win it going away barring injury).  But the Clippers have owned the Suns and have won eight straight in this series, and Blake Griffin plays incredible against this team and should go off for another MVP-style performance tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t tasted victory yet this season but this team isn’t as bad as their record would indicate. They will be really desperate to win this game tonight, and we expect that to happen. Even though this team has had to deal with a lot of injuries to start the season, they still have Anthony Davis, and he can put the team on his shoulders and beat a team like Dallas with a really good game. We just don’t think the Mavs are that good this season. This team has some players, but not as much talent as recent years and Dirk is on the downside of his career. We don’t think they will be in the playoffs, but New Orleans probably will. They need to turn things around in a hurry, and we think that turnaround starts tonight. This is a really good revenge spot, too, since these teams played over the weekend in Dallas with the home team getting the win. When teams play a turnaround game like this in such a short time it normally benefits the home team in the second game if they lost on the road.

This Sixers team is very very bad. They have made an art out of tanking the last couple years and this group might be the worst team of the bunch. They have covered a few games recently, mainly against the Cavs, who for whatever reason don’t play to their potential against them. But this is a real good scheduling spot for the Bulls as they lost last time out against the Timberwolves (in OT) so you know they will come to play here after that disappointing performance and then they have three days off after this game before their next contest. Just don’t see Chicago overlooking this team for that reason.  Philly is 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and that is against some very favorable spreads. We don’t see this one as favorable as we expect the Bulls to get a pretty easy double-digit win here on Monday night.

10 Unit Play. #467 Take New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Giants have been an up and down team this year but we expect them to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. New York scored 49 points last week in New Orleans yet lost the game but I just do not believe the Buccaneers have the same offensive firepower that New Orleans does. With the Patriots on deck this is a game that the Giants need to get to keep their hopes of winning the NFC East alive. Tampa Bay has lost 11 of their last 12 home games and covered the spread in just three of those games. New York is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #421 Take Michigan State Spartans over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) If it has not become clear by now that the Mike Riley hire is a failure and the AD who made that hire is in serious trouble. Nebraska is 3-6 on the season and they have lost four of their last five games. This team has lost in a variety of ways but how you can give up 55 points to Purdue and lose by double digits is beyond me. Now they face the toughest team on their schedule and we will gladly lay this number with a team is starting to hit their stride. The Spartans are coming off of a bye and they have won two straight games against Nebraska. Last year’s final was 27-22 but it was not as close as it would seem with Nebraska trailing 27-3 in that game. The Spartans have not been as dominating as they were last year but they are still undefeated and played their best game of the season last time out putting up 52 points against Indiana. Michigan State still has a great quarterback in Connor Cook and he has 17 touchdowns on the season and just two interceptions. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong will likely return but much of his production has come in the second half or against bad teams. Michigan State is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and Nebraska cannot get out of its own way. 

10 Unit Play. #357 Take NC State Wolfpack over Boston College Eagles (Saturday, November 7th, 2015, 12:30 pm ESPN 3) We went against Boston College for our 6-unit selection last week against Virginia Tech and will come right back fading them this week. Boston College has a good defense but they have one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and they have lost five straight games including just 300 yards of total offense combined in their last two games. NC State took a body blow from the best team in the ACC last week. They hung with Clemson for a little bit but just could not get off the field enough to win the game. They should have a much easier time stopping Boston College on Saturday, an Eagles team that cannot get out of their own way. North Carolina State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Lay the points with the better team. 

The Heat are one of our underrated teams to start the season. We think this team has the ability to do some real damage in the watered-down East. This team has had a very tough schedule to start the season as they played conference finalists in Houston and Cleveland and also the No. 1 seed from last year in Atlanta. So their 2-2 start is decently impressive, and they didn’t embarrass themselves in either of the losses. This is their easiest game of the season thus far, despite it being a road game, and they should take full advantage here on Thursday. Minnesota has some nice young talent to be sure. But they have a long road ahead of them until they are competitive. Miami is a veteran team that needs a strong start to the season and they will not overlook Minnesota here. We expect them to score a comfortable win. And they have dominated this series as they have covered in 8 of the last 10 meetings while winning nine of those games.

We were on Memphis last night in what will go down as one of their worst losses of the season. But we don’t think that game was a sign something major is wrong with this team. It was just a bad game. Against a great team. That got out of control. Memphis is not the type of team that can stage a big comeback, so once that game was lost the starters sat for most of the rest of the game, so they should be fresh here tonight. They will also be eager to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game last night. DeMarcus Cousins is out for Sacramento tonight. This is not a very good team with him in the lineup and without him they were terrible last year.  Don’t see any reason that will change here. Memphis has a big edge on the boards tonight and they need this game as this is one of the easiest games on what is a real tough road trip that started off on a bad note last night.

We just think this line is too large as well. Golden State has played extremely well to open the season. They have picked up right where they left off last year. However, it won’t be all rainbows and unicorns for this team this season, and they have a target on their backs every game and will normally get their best effort from opponents on a nightly basis. And Memphis is probably the one team that has them in their targets in a major way. They of course lost to GSW in the playoffs last year, but they did put up quite a fight and won two games early, including one in this very building. They have the defensive ability to really disrupt the flow of Golden State’s offense, and we feel they will bring their A Game tonight. Memphis has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings here in the Bay Area, and you know this is one of the early-season games that they have had circled when the schedules came out. The bookies are already getting to the point where they just post a double-digit spread to any Warriors game no matter whom the opponent. We will take advantage in this game as we think this is a very public line.

10 Unit Play. #269 Take New York Jets over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Everything in the world went right for three quarters last week for the Oakland Raiders in San Diego. But I always believe that there is not any carryover in the NFL from week to week and expect a much different outcome in this game. Unlike the Chargers, the Jets have a defense and a strong running attack. New York gave the Patriots all that they could handle for 60 minutes and feel just short when they could not get off the field on a couple of key third downs. This line opened as a pick but now the early money is coming on the Jets for good reason. Oakland has already lost two home games this season and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season. The Jets have covered 7 of their last 9 games (1 push). New York has beaten Oakland each of the last two years by an average margin of victory of 7.5. New York is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Oakland has never handled prosperity well going 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games following a victory in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #256 Take Arizona Cardinals over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Red Birds got backdoored on Monday Night Football last week settling for field goals and missing an extra point in the second half. That was a brutal beat for us but in a way it sets up this play. Arizona is loaded with talent on both sides of the football and they play an aggressive style of defense that will give the Browns fits for sixty minutes. The Browns will play better than they did against St. Louis but they have quarterback issues with Josh McCown questionable for this game and Johnny Manziel having some off the field issues. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the season and they have not played that great of a schedule as they have yet to play the Bengals or Steelers this season (two games left with each). Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a pointspread loss in their previous game. Arizona is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. 

This is one of our favorite angles to play for NBA handicapping. When teams play home-and-home games on back-to-back nights, you always have to look at the team that lost the night before as a possible play. It makes it even stronger when that team is at home. And that is the scenario we have tonight. Phoenix got a blowout win at home over these Blazers last night. And just look at this line today. The bookies are just begging bettors to take Phoenix here. The Blazers will make the necessary adjustments here and they should play a lot better at home. That win and cover last night was also the Suns first cover in five meetings between these clubs. Yes, the Blazers are not as talented as those past teams. But the odds have also been adjusted significantly, and we think there is value here on the home club tonight. Just not a big believer in the Suns yet and think they are a tad overrated while the Blazers had a bad offseason but they still have Damian Lillard and some nice young talent and we think they take care of business in this nice revenge spot here on Saturday.

10 Unit Play. #193 Take Virginia Tech Hokies over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses last week but Virginia Tech has a much better offense than does Boston College. QB Michael Brewer is back from injury and this will be his second start since returning and he should be even better in this game. Boston College has a strong defense but a terrible offense evident by the fact they had only 79 total yards last week and 4 first downs against Louisville. Their 14 points were the result of two short fields with a blocked punt and a fumble return. Boston College has major quarterback issues and they are completing just 43% of their passes and that includes games against Maine and Howard. Boston College is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their 5 home games. If Virginia Tech can ovoid turnovers they should roll to a victory. 

Atlanta looked bad in an opening-night loss to Detroit, but that is just one game and we think this team will be just fine. New York comes in on a back-to-back after a surprising blowout victory at Milwaukee. But make no mistake, the Hawks are not as bad as they looked opening night and the Knicks are nowhere as good as they looked last night. And the beauty of this one here is that we are getting a very nice line because of those results. We had this one handicapped at 6.5 or 7, so there is some very nice line value here. And the Hawks were one of the best teams at covering lines last season, and this year should be no different. We expect Atlanta to shoot way better than they did in the first game and think this line is a gift on Thursday TNT. Oh yeah, and Atlanta has won and covered in three of the last four meetings.

The Sixers are a bad team to begin with, but they are in even tougher shape than normal with a laundry list of injuries for the game tonight. This squad will have only 9 players suit up tonight if Nik Stauskas misses the game, and he is listed as doubtful. This is basically a college team playing an NBA squad. The veteran of this Sixers club is Carl Landry, the 32 yr old who is out of the lineup tonight. Otherwise this roster is filled with 19 to 24 year olds. This team is just building for the future and is more interested in these young players getting game experience and getting good draft position rather than winning games. Now they have to play in Boston in the Celtics home opener. Boston was one of the best ATS teams in the NBA last season. They accomplished that by winning and covering in games like this. They won and covered in all four meetings last season, and all of those wins were by double digits. Boston hosts Toronto and San Antonio this weekend, so they know they need to win this one big because it will be a lot tougher this weekend. They are well-coached so they won’t overlook Philly, especially in the home opener. Boston is one of the deepest teams in the East this season so they have a distinct advantage tonight over this thin roster of Philly youngsters. This game should be ugly as we cash with another double-digit Boston win over Philly.

10 Unit Play. #463 Take Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Titans last week and won easily with Miami and expect a similar results with a better Atlanta Falcons team. Tennessee has lost four straight games since opening the season with a victory against Tampa Bay. Of those four losses (Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, & Indianapolis) they have suffered none of those teams have an explosive offense like Atlanta does. The Falcons were their own worst enemy last Thursday against New Orleans and I fully expect them to clean that up in this game. The Titans also have quarterback issues with Marcus Mariota questionable for this game. Not a huge drop-off to their back-up but it is a drop-off nonetheless. Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Tennessee is 7-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #345 Take Utah Utes over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) Utah will put their undefeated record on the line tonight in Los Angeles taking on USC. The Trojans have an interim coach and they have already lost two games at the Coliseum this season. USC had some moments last week against Notre Dame but still suffered a double digit loss and I do not see them being able to turn things around tonight. USC has lost three of their last four games I believe Utah is a better team that Washington and Notre Dame. Utah has a very aggressive style of defense that will pose problems for Cody Kessler. Utah is very balanced on offense and getting points with the better team is just icing on the cake. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. USC is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

10 Unit Play. #253 Take Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This line has swung three points since it opened as a pick’em and it is apparent that the Bills are overvalued this season despite their talkative head coach. The Bills have already lost two home games this season and they are not ready to be among the elite of the AFC with Tyrod Taylor as quarterback. The Bengals are still a great team in the regular season and Andy Dalton is having a breakout season. He has numerous weapons to work with and should give the Bills defense all that they can handle. Cincinnati has covered 4 straight games against AFC teams. Buffalo is 7-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games following a win in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #460 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) TOP NFL GAME OF THE WEEK. The Chiefs need a win in the worst way and we fully expect them to take out their frustration on Chicago this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs went 6-2 at home last season and outscored their opponents by 17 points per game during those six victories. The difference in this game will come down to the Chiefs defense, as they are still a dominating unit (despite the ranking) and should have no problem hitting the quarterback early and often. The Bears are not on the same level as Green Bay and Cincinnati and thus has double digit home victory written all over it. Chicago knows this is a rebuilding year and I just do not see them being able to win two games in a row. Chicago’s three losses have come by an average of 19.6 points and that will easily get us a cover with the favorite in this game. Chicago is 13-27 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 

10 Unit Play. #407 Take San Jose State Spartans over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 9 pm the MWC) The Rebels were lucky to escape last week against Nevada as they did nothing in the second half but got a key pick-six to hang on for the victory. I do not see them being as fortunate in this game against San Jose State. I am a real big fan of Spartan QB Joy Gray and he has held his own against some stiff competition including Auburn last week. San Jose State actually outgained Auburn last week and should be the same this week since Rebel starting quarterback Blake Decker is out again this time with a shoulder injury. It is important for San Jose State to stop the running game of UNLV and if they do that they should be victorious. The Spartans have a pair of big name coordinators in Greg Robinson and Al Borges and expect them to come up with a solid gameplan to defeat a coach that was at a high school one year ago. SJSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. UNLV has covered just 1 of their last 4 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #270 Take San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) I always like to play home underdogs of seven or more points and I fully expect a much better effort by the 49ers today in Santa Clara. San Francisco has looked terrible in back to back road games but I am a big believer in that there is not much carryover from week to week in the NFL and every week is completely different. Green Bay is not the same team on the road as they are when playing at Lambeau Field and sooner or later their injuries will catch up with them. Green Bay will head west on a short week and this is a team they have not had any success against in the last 5 years. San Francisco is 3-0 ATS in the last six years when they have been a home underdog. QB Colin Kaepernick has been awful of late but Green Bay is a team he has had great success against and I expect him to be able to move the football with his arm or his legs. Green Bay still does not have a good defense and if the 49ers can hang onto the football I see this game going down to the wire. Green Bay has not won in San Francisco (Santa Clara) since 2006 and while that streak may end on Sunday, it will only come by a couple of points. 

10 Unit Play. #148 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 4 pm FS1) We will come right back with the Cowboys in this game and feel they will be more relaxed than they were last week playing in Austin. We pushed with the Pokes in a game we should have won as the Longhorns offense was completely shut down in the second half. But key turnovers kept Texas in that game and we had to settle for a push. After a bad beat (push) I always like to use the same team against in the following week as things have a way of evening themselves out. The Wildcats have reverted back to Bill Snyder form in scheduling cupcakes during the nonconference portion of the season and they have not really looked that impressive in those games. They are coming off a bye but I do not believe they are ready for Big 12 play. They already share a common opponent in UTSA with the Pokes beating them by 55 points compared to a 27 point victory by the Wildcats. Oklahoma State also has revenge on their minds losing by 34 points last year in Manhattan but the home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings. I am a big fan of DC Glenn Spencer and feel he will come up with a solid gameplan to stifle this questionable Wildcats offense. Oklahoma State takes better care of the football on Saturday and wins this game by double digits. 

10 Unit Play. #480 Take Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This is a surprise match-up of 2-0 teams with nobody expecting the Falcons to be any good this season. The Falcons will be playing their second straight road games and that generally catches up with teams in the NFL. Expect Dallas to rise to the occasion with all of their injuries in the short term and I just do not believe the Falcons are ready to become an elite team in the NFL again. Dallas still has a dominating offense line and that will be the difference in this contest. 

10 Unit Play. #384 Take UTSA Roadrunners over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) The MWC has been one of the most disappointing conferences this season and the Rams must travel on the road for the first time this season. Colorado State should not be laying this many points to anybody on the road. CSU is coming off an overtime loss to Colorado and I expect them to come into this game a little flat. The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule to open the season and they sit at 0-3 but those losses came against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona. This is a fade play against the MWC. 

10 Unit Play. #288 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) We went against Seattle last week with St. Louis and will do the same this Sunday against the Packers. Seattle has a brutal schedule to open up the season with a pair of road games against teams that are motivated to beat them. Green Bay has waited a couple of years to host Seattle and you can expect revenge to be best served on the field. Green Bay dominated Seattle last year in the NFC Championship only to fall apart in the fourth quarter and be sent home a week before the big game. Seattle allowed Nick Foles to move the football on their defense and we only in that game because the Rams turned over the football. I just do not see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers making that many mistakes. This is a game the fans of the Packers want in the worst way and they will pull away in the second half to win this game by double digits. 

10 Unit Play. #481 Take Tennessee Titans over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) This is one of the marquee match-up of Week 1 despite two terrible teams doing battle. At this point of the season I trust Marcus Mariota more than I do Jameis Winston. The Titans have won their last two road openers the last two years beating Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two better teams than they will see today against Tampa Bay. Expect Dick LeBeau to improve the Titans defense just enough to frustrate the new quarterback and allow Tennessee to win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #372 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) Nonconference Game of the Year! We saw last week that many power five teams struggled to put away and cover the spread against mid-majors in true road games. Tonight we have a line that is way off the mark, as Arizona is not the team they were last year. These two teams have met twice in the last three years and both times Arizona was a big favorite but Nevada covered the game with relative ease. That included losing by just seven points last year in Tucson despite being a 19 point underdog. Arizona looked awful against UTSA last week and this is a Road Runner team that returned just 6 of 22 starters from a 4 win team last year. Arizona got two defensive touchdowns but gave up 29 first downs and 525 total yards to UTSA. Nevada always prides themselves on holding onto the football and winning the turnover battle and if they accomplish this they will take this game right down to the wire. Nevada’s game against UC-Davis was a little misleading, as they gave up two late meaningless scores to make the game closer than what it actually way. Nevada has a solid defense and despite breaking in a new quarterback should be able to move the football on this suspect Wildcat defense. Throw in the fact that Arizona will be without PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Scooby Wright and that just means this line is way off the mark. Take the points and I truly believe Nevada has a great chance to win this game straight-up. 

10 Unit Play. #196 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Georgia Southern Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm ROOT Sports) The Mountaineers had an up and down season last year with some impressive wins but really feel apart down the stretch of the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Now Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat and he needs to get off to a good start and has three winnable games to open up the season. They returns most of their starters on defense but have to replace Clint Trickett at quarterback. To me this is a good thing as I never though much of the former transfer from Florida State. The open with Georgia Southern, a triple option team that ran the table in the Sun Belt last season. To me I always like playing against triple option teams coming off a long layoff as West Virginia has been able to focus all summer on stopping this attack. The Mountaineers are 15-1 in home openers winning by an average of 29 points per game. That will be good enough for a cover in this contest. 

10 Unit Play. #426 Take Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1 pm NFL Network) NFL Preseason Game of the Year. We have had good luck with the Steelers in the preseason in year’s past but things have changed in recent years. Pittsburgh should not be giving points to anybody let alone to a team as quality as the Green Bay Packers. Pittsburgh is 2-11 ATS in their last 14 preseason games (1 push). Green Bay moved the football well against New England they just had trouble finishing off drives in the red zone. You can expect them to work out those kinks and be much better today against Pittsburgh. Big Ben is a solid quarterback but after him things get much worse after that. Landry Jones have been given ample opportunity to see if he can play and the early results are that he cannot. Pittsburgh has been long known as the steel curtain defense but they are in transition to a cover-2 and did not perform well in either games against Minnesota or Jacksonville. Neither one of those teams are offense juggernauts. Getting points in just icing on the cake, as Green Bay will win this game straight-up. Finally this is a home game for Packer Coach Mike McCarthy, as he grew up in Pittsburgh and he is 7-2 straight-up in Week 2 Preseason games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports. Your next update will be Thursday, August 27th for the final week of our NFL Preseason selections. 

Golden State now has all the momentum in this series and they have a chance to close things out in Cleveland on Tuesday night. The Cavaliers put up a better fight than we thought they would in this series early, but the depth and sharp shooting of the Warriors has been too much for Cleveland the last couple games. Of course, the Cavs are missing two of their most important players in Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, and they have not been able to get consistent production from the role players on this team. LeBron James has to be in the conversation for series MVP even if the Cavs lose as he has done everything asked of him and more. But one guy can’t do it all, and nobody else has stepped up big time on this team aside from some flashes here and there. We feel like the Cavs kind of left it all on the court in the first few games of this series and they just look like they don’t have the energy to match Golden State. That was evident at the end of Game 5 and the teams had two nights off before that game (a stat where the Cavs have really excelled all season in that situation) but they have only one night off here. We think the NBA season comes to an end tonight with a big Game 6 win by the road team.

Cleveland played very good in the first three games of this series, winning two of them, including an upset here at Oracle in Game 2. They played very relentless defense, and combined with cold Golden State shooting that was a recipe for success for them. However, that relentless defense has them worn out. This team is already thin with Love and Irving out, and they really looked fatigued there in Game 4. And the Warriors regained their shooting touch a bit in Game 4 and we think it can be even better here in Game 5 at home. Game 4 was the Cavs big chance to pretty much put this series away and they blew it in a big way. It was always our thought the Warriors would win this one in 5 or 6 and they are back on track to do that with a big win here. It seemed like the Warriors confidence was shaken a bit after the first three games of this series, but with that blowout win in Game 4 gave them their mojo back. This is a very deep team and one that plays like a team while the Cavs rely more on one player for most of their stats. But as a team we think they gave it all they had early in this series and we think they have lost the momentum now and we think it is Warriors all the way from this point on (and the bookies agree as GSW is now in the area of -400 for the series).

Golden State has been in this position before as they were down 2-1 to Memphis and had lost home-court advantage. However, the way these series are set up the Warriors are still in a good spot since a win here in Game 4 will get them the home-court edge back and then we will have a three-game series with two of them in Oakland. This team will be desperate on Thursday night, and even though they have shot the ball pretty lousy in the last couple games Stephen Curry started heating up at the end of Game 3 and you just can’t hold this team back for long. A loss here for the visitors likely means a short series and we think the Warriors will get the benefit of some calls as well. The sharp bettors pounded this line when it first came out but there is still some good value here and we think this will actually be a very comfortable Golden State win tonight as we think they will get at least one double-digit win in this series and it could come Thursday as maybe the Cavs come into this one a little overconfident after winning two straight in the series.

We thought there was some nice value in taking the Cavs in Game 2 with a number that was overadjusted, and we think this Game 3 line has some very nice value as well as with the Warriors losing Game 2 we handicapped them at -5 in this game. We think this is still the best team in this series and we expect them to respond positively after slipping up in the last game. We think there is a very good chance that they win this one and also a sweep in Cleveland would not be out of the question. But there is no doubt in our minds that the bookies have posted a bad line here.  The Warriors shots were off in Game 2 – Cleveland played great defense but also the Warriors shot themselves in the foot too much – and they still had a chance to win that game in OT. Just don’t see the Cavs holding the Warriors to such a low shooting percentage two games in a row. That’s the problem with teams that rely on shooting so much is that they can have an off game, but also they often won’t go cold for long and we expect a strong bounce-back effort here tonight.

We think the Rockets still have some fight left in them, and their Game 4 effort was very impressive. This team showed a lot of resiliency in coming back from down 3-1 against the Clippers to win that semifinal series, and we think that instilled a never-give-up attitude in the team. They should come into this one very confident, and we expect them to put up a fight tonight. Besides that blowout in Game 3, the Rockets have covered all the other games in this series, and they easily covered both games in Oakland against a very similar line. We think this will be another close one and the underdog is the only way to go here.

Just like the Rockets did on Monday, we think the Hawks will play with some pride on Tuesday and give themselves a chance to win this game. They played their best game of the series last time out and lost in overtime, but they showed they can be competitive in this series. With all the junk that went on in Game 3 you know the Hawks are not going to lay down here, and we expect a spirited effort from the visitors. The Hawks are not a great team and this team was not built for the postseason, but the Cavs aren’t as good as James’ Heat teams of the past few years. We don’t think these teams are that far apart and we thought this line should be closer to 5 and think there is nice value here tonight.

This is the most value we have seen with Houston, maybe in the entire playoffs. A team is never as bad as their last game, and the Rockets have shown they can put up a fight when their backs are up against the wall. They had covered five straight before that Game 3 blowout, but we expect a much better effort tonight. Not sure if they win, but it should be a close game. And you have to expect that the refs will give them some calls here at home. The NBA stands to lose millions of dollars if both conference finals series are sweeps, and the refs know this. Houston showed they can hang with the Warriors in those two games in Oakland, and we expect them to play tonight. Also, they should have the confidence of knowing that nothing is out of reach after that Clippers series.

Even though the Rockets are down 2-0 in this series they have played really well and they had a good chance to steal Game 2. This team is peaking right now and playing some of its best basketball of the season after coming back from down 3-1 for a historic win over the Clippers. This team has won three straight games at home, and we expect them to take this must-win game tonight. It looks like things might be over quickly in the East so the NBA can’t afford for both series to end quickly and the Rockets will probably get some home cooking here from the refs. Houston has now covered in five straight games and we expected them to be about three-point favorites here so we think there is some very nice line value tonight.

We have not been impressed with Atlanta that much in these playoffs but they should be able to get the job done tonight against a Cavs team that is also overrated. This is a must-win game for Atlanta, and they should play their best tonight while the Cavs will not play with the same urgency since they already stole Game 1 and home-court advantage. We think, despite the Game 1 result, that the Hawks match up very favorably with the Cavs and we think this one will be a long series. The Hawks have been great this season as a small favorite like this and we expect them to get the job done tonight in a very comfortable win.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and missed that play, but we think the Warriors did not play nearly as well as they can here, and late in the game they were on the borderline of covering that number until a late Houston rally. Golden State didn’t shoot well from long range and they didn’t get to the free throw line that much, and they hit a low percentage when they were there. But we think that the Warriors are a much better team here and we think there are going to be a couple blowouts in this series and we think there is a great chance that this is one of them in Game 2 tonight.

The Warriors are rested here while the Rockets seemed to give everything they had against the Clippers and we think Golden State will make short work of Houston in this series and we think they steamroll the visitors in Game 1. Golden State dominated this series in the regular season and they have covered now in five straight meetings. Houston will want to run in this series and they sets right up for Golden State’s style of play. But the big difference is that the Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will be more able to control the defensive end of the floor. We think this series will be a real mismatch and the Warriors should be able to pick their score on offense tonight.

Those who like Houston in this Game 7 will say that it’s hard for the Clippers to get their heads in this game after that monumental choke job in Game 6. But we disagree. The Clippers were the most overworked team left in the playoffs heading into that Game 6 as they had played every other day since early in the first round. There are a lot of reasons they gave up that big lead in Game 6 and many of them were the Clippers fault. But one of the big reasons was fatigue, mentally and physically. The extra day off here works big in the Clippers advantage. It gives them an extra day of rest and an extra day to regroup and refocus. And they are just the better team here and we expect them to get the job done today.

The Wizards have been the best ATS team in these playoffs and we think they get the job done tonight, especially with John Wall back on the court. Wall played an unbelievable game in Game 5 with fractures in his hand and he proved he can still be effective. With Wall playing we think this is the Wizards game. We are just not big believers in the Hawks, who had a great regular season but have struggled in these playoffs. If Wall had played this whole series we absolutely believe that this would have been over by now and that Washington would be facing Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. Wall being back in the lineup will be a big boost at home, and the team’s defense will also get the job done tonight to extend this one to Game 7.

The Clippers seem to have a clunker every series in these playoffs. They bounced back from that bad loss to the Spurs and came back and won the series. We don’t take much from that Game 5 in Houston as the game kind of got away from them and the Rockets played excellent in what we consider their last gasp at home. But LA has been dominant here at home and we think that this team is mentally tough and will be able to brush off that loss and win here to put the Rockets away while the pressure isn’t that great (like it would be for a Game 7 in Houston). We don’t see this as a 20+-win game, but we do think the Clippers earn a pretty comfortable win by at least 10 points.

We took the Warriors laying a big number like this in Game 1 when they had extra time to rest and prepare for Game 1 but as this series progresses we don’t think they should be laying this many points. The Grizzlies are a very good team and one that can wear an opponent down over the course of a long series like this. The Warriors caught lightning in a bottle in Game 4 and won in a blowout, but we think the Grizzlies will shake that off and do what they have done all season tonight to stay competitive in this game. These teams are just not that far from each other as this spread would indicate and that blowout win last game (we were on the Warriors in that game) helped make sure this spread stayed high for the higher seed but we expect a close game here as the Grizzlies will fight extremely hard tonight here on the road.

Right now the Clippers look like the best team in basketball. This team always had the talent, but now they are playing with confidence, too, and that’s a dangerous combination for opponents. Something really clicked with this team in that Spurs first-round series and some of the issues that have plagued this team over the years seem to be gone now. Houston has just looked terrible in this series on both sides of the ball. Their defense just can’t stop the Clippers and their offense does not have the explosiveness that we saw in the regular season. The body language from this team after two straight blowouts in LA really told us that this team is done and we expect this series to end tonight for the Rockets at home. This team really lost its composure in Game 4 and nothing they have been doing has been working. The Clippers have dominated all but a couple quarters in this series. What we like most about this Clippers team is that they have a very businesslike attitude. Even though they are about to enter unchartered territory if they do advance to the Western Conference Finals, they are not getting too high or too low along the way. This team has played every other day for a long time now and they can get a week off before the WCF if they win tonight. This team will do everything in its power to achieve that goal and to get this team healthy and fresh for the next round, especially since this team has been so good this season on extended rest.

Memphis has done a great job in this series so far but we still like the Warriors in this series and we think they get the job done tonight. You can hold this team down for a couple games but not a whole series and we think the Golden State shots start to drop tonight. This series has all the makings of a 7-game series and we expect the Warriors to pull even tonight. The Griz have been playing good defense for sure but also the shots for GSW have been off even when they are open and we just think the law of averages will even up tonight and expect a solid shooting night from the visitors and we also think that they will get the benefit of calls from the refs this evening.

We said it in our writeup for Game 3 and will reiterate it here. This Clippers team has just surpassed the Rockets and LA is looking like the best team in the league right now and should be well on their way to facing (most likely) Golden State in what should be an epic Western Conference Finals. The Clippers got a slow start to the season but you have to admit they have been playing as well as any team in the league through the last few weeks of the season and the start of the playoffs. They just look so much better than the Rockets right now and have dominated most of this series save for a couple quarters. Houston just seems like that type of team that overachieves in the regular season and flames out in the playoffs and the Clippers have an edge in so many areas on the court and also a huge coaching edge as Rivers is coaching circles around McHale in this series. After a few 7-Game series over the last few years this Clippers team knows the importance of closing things out quickly and this team seems to have grown a lot after that Spurs series. We think they get it done in a big way here in Game 4 and expect them to head back to Houston with the Rockets on the brink of elimination.

We were on the Warriors in Game 1 and on the Grizzlies in Game 2, so we feel like we have a good read on this series. Golden State’s shots were off during that Game 2 loss and we expect them to regroup and be ready to play here. These teams have had three nights off between these games and that really helps Golden State here as the Grizzlies want to wear them down and throw off their game, which they did in Game 2, but with this team fresh and with the adjustments they can make we think there is nice value in this line as we had the Warriors as 7.5-point favorites in this game. That Memphis win has kept the oddsmakers honest here and we expect a big bounce-back effort from the visitors here. Golden State is 6-0 ATS when playing with this much rest and we think that trend continues here on Saturday.

We think the Clippers have surpassed the Rockets in terms of how good these teams are. Both teams have similar records on the season but the Rockets started the season overachieving and the Clippers underachieved big time to start the season. But this team grew into itself as the season went on and after this 7-Game series against the Spurs this is a completely different team than the one we saw earlier in the season and they look much more composed than Houston right now, even after losing Game 2. Chris Paul is questionable for this game and we think there is a great chance he plays here. But even if he doesn’t we expect the Clippers to win and cover this line. Houston just seems like one of those regular season teams that struggles against expectations in the playoffs while we think the Clippers have graduated into a legit championship contender.

Wow the Rockets were rusty in Game 1 and they had way too many turnovers. They just didn’t play with any energy and after their coach really got after them after that game we expect a more focused Rockets team tonight in what is basically a must-win game for Houston considering how strong Los Angeles is at home. We think that Game 1 performance by LA was a carryover from Game 7 against San Antonio and they came out with all of the energy and hustle. But we think they will be happy with a split. If they had lost Game 1 Chris Paul might have played here but now he has been downgraded to doubtful. Just not a lot of urgency here for the visitors and we think that will reflect in their play tonight. We think we might see a result here like that game in the Spurs series where the Clippers were just dominated and let the game get away from them. Maybe not that big of a blowout but we expect a comfortable win from the home club.

The Grizzlies did not look great in Game 1 but they were within range of threatening the spread in the fourth quarter and we think this is a game where they can make adjustments and keep things a lot closer. We were big on the Warriors in Game 1 and thought this team had a real advantage with the extra rest they enjoyed after their sweep of the Pelicans. But now they are on more of a level playing field in that regard here in Game 2. We also think the Grizzlies can make some adjustments to play better here and we expect a close game tonight. We think the Grizzlies will be more physical here and we expect them to slow the game down a bit and try to take the Warriors out of their rhythm. We just think this is a really good spot for the visitors tonight and we think this game will be very close.

This should be a great, competitive series and the underdog is probably going to be the play here in almost every game. The Bulls are a team that is built for the playoffs and this team is as healthy as it has been all year and we like what we saw out of Derrick Rose in the first round. We expect a lot of close games here and think that taking the points is the play for Game 1 as we think the Bulls have a great chance to win this one straight up. We think the Bulls match up well here and we think this line is definitely a couple points too high.

We think the Wizards have a great chance to win this series so of course we are going to go with them in Game 1.  We like the Wizards here for the same reasons we backed them against Toronto. Of course, Atlanta is a better team than Toronto, but we think the Hawks are a bit overrated and the Wizards underrated. Washington had a disappointing regular season but this team is made for playoff basketball with their size, strong defense and star player in John Wall. Brooklyn was not a good team this year yet they gave Atlanta all they could handle and we think the Wizards will give the Hawks even more problems today. The Wizards have had a lot of time off to prepare for this series and we think that gives them a distinct edge here.

We liked the Clippers to win this series all along and we made a mistake by going against them in Game 6 as we thought they would have a tough time in San Antonio but they grinded out a hard-fought win. Now all the momentum has swing back to their side and they are at home where they are a much better team and they should take care of business here tonight. The Spurs really showed their age in Game 6 and this team just looks worn out and ineffective right now. Their legs looked tiered on all their jump shots in Game 6 and unless they find the fountain of youth here before Game 7 they are in a tough spot here. We don’t think they can beat the Clippers three times in LA and this is just a bad spot for them.  All respect to the Spurs which were one of the best teams of all time, but we do think this dynasty ends on Saturday (some or all of these guys may come back and play next year but this team is finally looking like it really might be at the end of the road and time to start rebuilding around Leonard).

Like we said in our Game 5 writeup the Nets have figured the Hawks out. Atlanta jumped out to a massive lead in that game but the Nets were very impressive in rallying and made it a game in the fourth quarter. In fact, the last two points in the game, two Hawks free throws, are the only thing that stopped the Nets from covering all five games in this series and they should have had the cover. With a lack of Game 7s on the slate this year with so many series finishing early we think there may be a chance the Nets get some calls at home. Really like the way Brooklyn has played in this series and this is probably the most impressive stretch we have seen from them in awhile. We had this game handicapped closer to pickem.

That Game 5 in Los Angeles was a soul-crushing blow for the Clippers and we just don’t see how they can pick themselves off the floor and compete here in a must-win in Game 6 against the defending champs in one of the hardest buildings to play at in the entire NBA. The Clippers have choked away two of the games they lost in the final seconds and this team hasn’t shown they are mentally tough enough to overcome this. The NBA is not fixed, but certain teams get preferential treatment from the refs and the Clippers were on the wrong end of several bad calls during Game 5. The refs flat-out hate the Clippers and we have no doubt San Antonio will get the favorable calls at home in Game 6. LA complains way too much and this causes the refs to have it out for them in crucial situations. It has been this way for a couple years. But most of all for this pick the Spurs have just played like more of a team and have just done a professional job in this series while the Clippers have a better starting 5 but also some glaring deficiencies on the bench and also a lack of clutch players as all of their Big 3 have struggled in some of the biggest moments in the playoffs the last few years. Blake Griffin and Matt Barnes for LA are banged up and we just don’t see this team being able to bounce back after that Game 5 as all the players look like they lost the series already after that game. Looks like another early exit for the Clippers and we expect a double-digit win by the home team here in Game 6.

Just think that the Nets have figured out Atlanta in this series. They have covered all four games thus far and the bookies have failed to make a proper adjustment to this Game 5 line as this is pretty close to the Game 2 line when we last saw these teams in Atlanta. The Nets have a ton of confidence right now. This is a team that has some nice talent. They did not put it together during the regular season but the playoffs are a completely different animal and Brooklyn has played very well in this series and has a real chance against an Atlanta team that nobody thought of as a real threat in the east anyways. While we do think Atlanta wins this game we have to take the value in the dog here as we thought this line would be closer to 6 judging from the results of the first four games.

Houston got a wakeup call in Game 4 and they were probably not going to sweep this series anyways, but we think that blowout loss in Dallas last time out will help get this team back on track and we expect a result similar to the two home games in Houston where the Rockets easily took care of business. Dallas is just such an inconsistent team and this team just needs some retooling of the roster in the offseason because this is not a championship-caliber club. This team was one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season – and we feel like tonight’s game will be a perfect example. After they looked so good in Game 4 and earned some solid trust from bettors we think they will be in for a letdown tonight as they have so many times this season. Houston, on the other hand, is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they just really quietly take care of business and cover a lot of lines. We think the sense of urgency will be heightened after that Game 4 loss and they will do everything in their power tonight to end this series with an exclamation mark, especially considering the fact that the Spurs or Clippers will be waiting in the wings for them and they will need all the rest and preparation they can get if they have any hope in that series. We just see this one as a double-digit Rockets win and we don’t see them having much trouble tonight with the Mavs.

10-Unit Play #514 Take Portland -3 over Memphis (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday)

We have been on Memphis every game so far and we have been big on many of these first-round series finishing early because there are some big mismatches here in the first round. And we still think this series will end in five games. But we don’t expect Portland to just roll over here and we expect them to play with a lot of pride in front of their great home crowd and to extend this series one more game. The Blazers are too good of a team and have had too good of a season to get swept here and we think there will be one last gasp and a win here in front of the home fans.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

We actually had the Grizzlies as a small favorite in this game so we are loving the line value here. The Blazers just seem outmatched here. They are dealing with some injuries and have some bad karma going because of the Spanish sign incident in the locker room. With Golden State up next the Grizzlies know the urgency here to close out the series early. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS when getting small points like this on the season, and we expect them to win a close game tonight. This is the best team the Grizzlies have fielded in the last few years and they are primed to move on to the next round where they will probably have a tough time with the Warriors. But we love them for this series and expect them to win a close game here in the Saturday nightcap.

Can’t believe we are getting this line with the Rockets tonight as we had them handicapped as 6-point favorites after the way the Mavericks played such a stinker in their last game. Nowitzki looks old and does not seem to have any fire this postseason. The loss of Parsons hurts the Mavs big time. The Rondo situation is bizarre and a huge distraction. All the while the Rockets are just getting it done with ruthless efficiency and Dwight Howard seems to be back in game shape and has been a beast on the inside in this series. There are a lot of mismatches in these first-round series this year and we thought if the Mavs were to play a solid game it would come in Game 2, but that was anything but solid and the Rockets come into this Game 3 with all the confidence and momentum.

We were on the Clippers big in Game 1 and we like them here as well. It’s very telling that we are getting a similar line here to Game 1 and we thought the Spurs might be a slight favorite in this one since they are the public team. The bookies seem to be begging for Spurs money here, and it’s always a good idea to side with the sportsbooks. Los Angeles just matches up real well with the Spurs. They have now won and covered three straight against them with two coming in blowout fashion, including a 20-point win in San Antonio. We think the Clippers starters are as good as any starting 5 in the league and with a couple days off between these games Doc Rivers can play the starters as long as he wants here as they are fresh and that will minimize the damage that the bench could provide. While we don’t think this will be a blowout we do expect the Clippers to win this one fairly easily. This is the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Spurs were in that conversation but that season-ending loss to the Pelicans that forced them into this series really stalled their momentum and now with that blowout Game 1 loss it is gone. But the Clippers know they can’t afford a loss here and this team seems really dialed in right now and we expect they will get the job done here tonight at Staples Center.

We expect a much better performance here in Game 2 from the road team. These Texas teams all have a great rivalry that we see this series as being more competitive than the oddsmakers do. Not saying that the Mavs will win but we don’t see this as being as one-sided as Game 1 might indicate. The Texas teams rivalry reminds us of the first round last season when the Mavs gave the Spurs everything they could handle in taking them to Game 7. That was the Spurs toughest series of the playoffs last year for the Spurs, including the NBA Finals matchup against Miami. We are not sure who will win this Game 2 and suspect the Rockets might squeak this one out but we do expect a much better game from Dallas and think that this will be a real close game.

The Spurs are the public team here and America’s Sweethearts while the Clippers are the Team Everybody Loves to Hate. That’s great because it has caused these odds to be skewed, in our opinion. We had these teams about even on the series (the Spurs are a shade better and have more experience but the Clippers are hungry and have home-court advantage). We also expected LA to be at least 4-point favorites here for Game 1. Like we stated, the Clips are hungry and after the disappointments of the last three years we think they come out with a killer instinct in this one. They have been playing even better than the Spurs lately and Doc Rivers will solve some of the bench problems by shortening the rotation. It’s hard to come out as hungry as you have been when you just won a championship, and we think the Clippers surprise everyone by winning this series or at least having a good chance by stretching it to a Game 7. But we do expect them to win this first game at home where they are very comfortable and have excelled all season. They already showed they have what it takes to beat San Antonio as they did in the last two meetings (including a 20-point win in the Alamo City).

Despite the records we think the Wizards are the better team and we think this game should be closer to pickem. We see nice value on the road team here. The Wizards gained some great experience in beating the Bulls last season in that first-round series and the natural progression is for them to be better this year. Both teams were inconsistent this season, but we just did not like the way the Raptors played down the stretch. But most of all, the Raptors won all three regular-season meetings this year and we just don’t see them beating Washington four times in a row, and we think the Wizards give them everything they have here in Game 1. We see this is a close game but think Washington has a very good chance to pull off the road upset. The last two meetings were a 2-point Raptors win and a 4-point Toronto OT victory, and we think this will be another close game and just think this is too many points.

Was a bit surprised by this line we thought it would be between 11-12. The Suns have some injuries and they have had a couple blowouts lately but this is a good team and they will be amped to play the Spurs here as they always are. The last meeting between these teams was a Spurs blowout but most of the other recent meetings have been close games, and definitely within this big line tonight. Phoenix doesn’t get big lines like this often but they are a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting more than 11 this season and the Spurs are just 7-8 ATS when laying more than 11 points. We think there is a great chance San Antonio wins this one by less than double-digits.

The Clippers had a real lackluster start to the season. This team, however, is peaking at the right time and they are looking every bit like the second-best team in the west. The Grizzlies started hot but they have come back down to Earth lately. We see LA dominating this game. Memphis played a tough, hard-fought game in Utah last night. They used a lot of energy in that one, especially in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will show them no mercy as this is a possible playoff opponent. The Clippers are well-rested and have had three nights off. They are 13-3 straight up with two or more days of rest and 12-4 ATS in these situations. No doubt they have been focused on this game all week, and they have the chance to move into a tie for the No. 2 seed with a win here.

This game looks like blowout city to us. This is basically the biggest game of the season for the Thunder and after losing four straight, all against Western Conference playoff teams, they have now come to the realization that it’s a real possibility that they might not make the playoffs. But as hard as those last four games were, this one is a gimmie. The Thunder could blow out the Kings when Sacramento is at full strength, but all of their best players are injured here and will miss this game or be severely limited. The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and they won’t do any better tonight. They have a horrible defense and the Thunder can put up a lot of points, so we are not worried about them being able to cover the big number.