Sports Picks & Predictions

10-Unit Play. Take #371. Ottawa -6.5 vs Toronto (Thursday @ 7:00p.m. est).

These are two teams going in opposite directions in the standings. The visitors, Ottawa, are rolling right now, winners of 2 straight and three of the last 4 to move them into sole possession of first place in the East. Against teams not named Calgary, Ottawa is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. They now get to face a Toronto team that has been blow out in two straight games, and have failed to register more then 20 points in all but one of their games (lone win 20-17 vs Edmonton). The Argos are suffering a major Grey Cup hangover and without the services of Ricky Ray, who went down injured in Game 1, look completely lost on offense - so much so, they made are making a switch at QB, benching highly touted James Franklin for career backup Mcleod Bethel-Thompson. They have no running game to speak of as James Wilder Jr. has been held in check throughout the season, mostly because teams are selling out to stop the run since they do not fear the passing attack. Ottawa has an extremely talented defense and gave up just 31 rushing yards to Hamilton last week. If Trevor Harris can keep the momentum going for the Redblacks on offense, Ottawa will have no trouble scoring points with their collection of offensive weapons and beating their in-province rivals and extending their lead atop the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind, Ottawa is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs the East. Toronto is just 6-18 ATS following a SU loss.

10-Unit Play. Take #961 Arizona (-1.5 RL) over San Diego (10:10 p.m. Friday, July 27)

Arizona returns to the West Coast after dropping their last two games against the Cubs but I think the Padres are in trouble. Zack Greinke will be on the mound and he has dominated San Diego in his career going 10-2 across twenty starts. Greinke has been in a nice groove in 4 July starts going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA, not allowing more than 2 earned runs in any start. Luis Pedermo will take the ball for the Padres and he has been a disaster this season. The Padres are 1-7 in the 8 starts Pedermo has made this year and he is 0-4 with a 11.29 ERA at home this season with opponents batting .395 against him. I think the Diamondbacks will bring the lumber and score plenty of runs while Greinke will limit the Padres offense and lead them to victory. Take Arizona in this one.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

10 Unit Play. #976 Take Seattle (-1.5 RL) over Chicago (Saturday, 10:10 pm MLB.tv) The Athletics are right on the tail of the Seattle Mariners and they cannot afford to take this series lightly even against inferior competition. King Felix is on the mound and he has pitched better of late allowing three runs or less in his last five starts. That will be more than enough to beat the White Sox on Saturday night at Safeco Field.

10-Unit Play. Take Uruguay to Qualify over Portugal (2 p.m., Saturday, June 30)

Note: Uruguay can win in regulation time, extra time or in penalty kicks for this play to be graded a win.

Don't look now but this is the second time that Uruguay have not allowed a goal during the group stage of the World Cup. The previous time was the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Uruguay made a run all the way to the semi-finals eight years ago. But while I don't necessarily expect a replica run, the same blueprint is in place to at the very least dispatch of an inferior Portugal team who is slowly beginning to come down from their very fortunate title run at Euro 2016. Two years ago this Portuguese side fell into a lot of luck en route to their claim as Europe's best. Looking at that tournament two summers back, Portugal finished in third place in their group and were lucky just to sneak into the knockout round. Once in the elimination stages, of Portugal's four victories to the championshship, three came via a 1-0 extra time win or via PKs. Only once did they decisively prove to be the better team. And so far in Russia, we've seen Portugal get by ever so narrowly. Portugal saw Cristiano Ronaldo's brilliance with a hat trick in their opener against Spain only to still draw. They then were completely outplayed by Morocco despite a close 1-0 win. The same argument came be made with the 1-1 draw to Iran. This is a one-man team, and I've said it countless teams, if Ronaldo doesn't carry them, they struggle mightily. And even after his early goal against Morocco, essentially in the last two matches he has been contained and limited. Uruguay are that team to do this very same thing. Uruguay is a gritty bunch of physical footballers who don't steer away from a grind-it-out performance and really are comfortable in their own identity as a team. Now they also get to rely on the best 1-2 strike partnership in the world in Edison Cavani and Luis Saurez. Behind these two amazing talents, the rest of this team all play a role and fill in voids to help provide attacking options and control the pace and tempo in the rest of the field. Uruguay is going to hands down win the battle in the midfield, both allowing good chances for their duo atop the formation, but also, and even more importantly, limit Portugal from going forward with much consistency. Uruguay is the exact team I wanted Portugal to draw in this Round of 16. The South Americans have the edge with their back line and goal keeper, and even if the midfield efforts play out fairly even, I will take Two of a Kind (Cavani and Suarez) over Ace High (Ronaldo). This is not 2016. Portugal cannot play passive football and skate by into the deeper rounds of this tournament. Uruguay will frustrate Ronaldo and create two goals from their dynamic strike team to win this match. Uruguay 2-0 to the good for a Quarterfinals appearance.

If the Cavs were a young team than maybe we could see a lack of effort here as they are doomed down 0-3. But this is a veteran team and they will go all out tonight to avoid the sweep. We think they have a good chance to win. Besides Game 2, which was on the road, the Cavs have overall played pretty competitively in this series. They should have covered Game 3 but Golden State just got hot at the end of the game. We think this is a game where the Cavs will leave everything on the court and we think they could win this one straight up. They don’t want to get swept here as that is a black mark on their season even though they know they can’t win the series. And Golden State might subconsciously let down here in Game 4 as they know they are headed back to the Bay Area to win in Game 5 in the event that they lose here. Also, we think the total is once again too high here.

The Rockets had one of the worst halves in NBA postseason history in Game 6 and they were thoroughly embarrassed. Normally we would like a good team to bounce back but Houston looked lost and the players had that “deer in the headlights” look on their faces. That is not a good sign for the city of Houston tonight. Chris Paul is iffy in this one and they say he will be a gametime decision. Even if he does go he would not be anywhere near 100% and if this were the regular season he probably would miss significant time with this injury. We think the much better Warriors step on the Rockets throats tonight and end this series with a big win.

Boston has been our play in this series all the way, and since they have not lost at home yet in these playoffs we aren’t going to back off now. This is the better ballclub this year and we don’t think LeBron and Co. can get the job done here on the road. This series has been more competitive than we thought but in the end we think the Celtics take this and end LeBron’s stronghold on the ECF.

We think the Warriors are still going to win this series. They will win tonight and will probably be favored in Game 7. They are still heavy favorites to win the series. But we think this is just an inflated line tonight. Yes, Paul is out for the Rockets but this is still a good squad. They have to know that they need to close this series out tonight and we think they will treat this one like a Game 7. Also, the scores for the last two games have been very low and if this one plays out similarly then that makes the points all the more valuable.

The home teams have won and covered every game in this series so far but we think something has to give with that trend. The Celtics have a chance to close out this series tonight, and we think they play with a lot more intensity than they have in the first two games in Cleveland. We think that at least this will be a close game. We think the Celtics defense will really step up tonight. This is a very fair line for the Celtics and with the lowest total of the series so far we think the points are all the more valuable. We see a close, low-scoring game here tonight.

We have to admit that the Rockets have played better in this series than we thought they would. The Warriors had a real off game in Game 4 and the Rockets took advantage to steal a win in the Bay Area and take back home-court advantage. We think this is still the Warriors series to lose but that Game 4 loss makes this game even more important. This is almost a must-win game for the Warriors, and this team normally responds well in these types of situations. They are the better team here, they have all the experience, and we think they will rise up tonight and win this game commandingly. As this series goes on fatigue starts to set in and as we saw in Game 4 and in Game 5 in Boston last night the defenses are starting to step up so we think the under is the play here in Game 5 as well.

Boston has covered and won every game in this postseason when at home. The Celtics didn’t look great in their two road losses in Cleveland but we think they will turn it around here at home. They got off to a slow start in Game 4 but they did a good job to stay competitive and we think they played pretty well overall despite the loss and non-cover. We thought the Celtics would be at least -3 here so we think there is some nice value in Game 5. This one looks like it will probably go to Game 7 as these teams can’t achieve any success on the road. We think the home team will get the job done tonight.

Anything under double-digits for this Golden State like is money, in our opinion. Game saw the Rockets even the series in Texas but Golden State really flexed their muscles in Game 3. We think that Game 2 might be the only win for Houston as we just don’t see these teams as anything close to equal despite the media going crazy about Houston having a chance in this series. The Warriors are much more of a complete team and they have more consistent players. While the Rockets are sure to put up more of a fight than they did in Game 3, we still think that this one has a great chance to be a double-digit win by the home team.

We like to back good teams off an embarrassing loss and that is the case here as Boston played awful in Game 3 and we think they will rebound big time here and challenge for the win in what should be a close game. We also like the over as Game 3 almost went over even with Boston getting blown out. We had the over in that game and the scrubs that were in the game the last couple minutes could not hit anything so it was kind of a bad beat. But with this game likely being more competitive we expect both teams to get their points to get this one over the posted number. We think the Celtics are the better team here and we expected this number to shrink from Game 3 and not get bigger, so we think there is nice value on the dog here tonight.

We are behind Golden State all the way in this series. They let their guard down a bit in Game 2 after getting a Game 1 blowout win in Houston. But now after losing Game 2 they will be extra motivated tonight, and a motivated Warriors team is a squad you want to bet on. We think they are by far the better team here and they will want to get some separation in the fourth quarter to prevent anything funky from happening and we think they have no problem covering this line as we expect a double-digit win here for the home team.

We were excited to take the Warriors in Game 1 and they played even better than we expected. Now we are getting an even better line for Game 2. Everyone said that this is the series they wanted to see in the west since this would be competitive. It still has a chance to be. But we don’t think so. Even though the Rockets had the better record in the regular season that’s just because Golden State didn’t even try in the regular season. They saved up all their energy for the postseason. Now they are healthy and firing on all cylinders. And in our opinion with both teams at their best this series isn’t even close. Golden State doesn’t like to be challenged. When they hear the media and the public say that Houston has a chance here that just gives them the motivation they need to give that extra effort on every play, and despite some excellent players on Houston we don’t think the talent level matches up here at all. In fact, the only thing that can stop the Warriors is themselves and they will be the best until they break this team up. We think they might slip up in a game back at home but we think they want this bad to all but put a nail in the Rockets’ coffin for this series with a sweep in Houston.

There’s no getting around the fact that this Cleveland team is just not as good as the versions that have made the NBA Finals the last couple years. We think the Celtics have a great chance to win this series, and that certainly looked like it can happen after their Game 1 domination. Boston has probably the best coach in the NBA right now and he is doing his best work as he has this team looking like the clear best team in the east despite two major injuries to their stars. But he is making the best of the talent that he has available and many of these young players are coming into their own in front of our eyes. But the most important thing is that this team is playing great team basketball. Cleveland has to rely on LeBron to carry the team every night while the Celtics will be OK even if a couple guys have an off night. Boston is now a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. We think they will take this one tonight, maybe not in blowout fashion but this team has been underrated all postseason and they continue to get disrespected by the oddsmakers as we had them -5 here so obviously we think there is amazing line value tonight.

We are big on the Warriors in this series and we don’t think it will be as competitive as some think it will. We agree with the oddsmakers that the Warriors should be around -180 favorite here. We would probably put the moneyline around -200. And to be getting points for Game 1 seems like a gift. We think this Warriors team is one of, if not THE, best teams of all time. Of course, it’s hard to compare teams from different generations since they played a different style of NBA basketball back then. But Golden State ranks right up there, and Curry, in our minds, is one of the Top 5 players ever. He makes those around him better, he is cool under pressure, he is a true leader, and if he gets hot shooting there is no stopping him. All Golden State needs to do is win one game here in Houston to steal home-court advantage. While Houston went hard for regular-season success, the Warriors did the right thing and coasted through the regular season. And now here in Game 1 they can make that strategy work with a win here and then you just throw out the regular-season results. We think they will bring their A Game tonight. This team doesn’t like it when the public thinks an opponent has a chance. When they play with a chip on their shoulders they are at their best. And they seem to take a perverse pleasure in beating Chris Paul. They always got into his head in his days with the Clippers and they would still be shooting threes up big late in order to make the score even more lopsided. We think this has a very good chance to be a 7+-point win by the road team.

Both teams have really turned a corner in the playoffs. Both had somewhat disappointing regular seasons, but for Boston that had to do a lot with injuries. But the difference between these two teams is that the Cavs are always overrated by the oddsmakers. They were the worst team in the NBA for betting during the regular season. Even though they have been playing better as of late, we still think they are overrated here. We had Boston as 3.5-point favorites to open this series at home, and with the Cavs posted as slight favorites there is very nice value here. Boston is 9-3 ATS in these playoffs. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home in the postseason, and they haven’t lost a game here yet. This team is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Cleveland squad is centered around one player, and if he has a down game they are toast. But if one or a couple guys for the Celtics have a down game then they are still in good shape since there will be other players there to step up. Boston also has a big coaching advantage and Stevens is on the top of his game right now. We always thought the Cavs would have trouble reaching the NBA Finals this year, and we think this series will probably go 6 or 7 games, but we have to take Boston here in Game 1 as we think they are very underrated coming into this series.

Philly covered their first game of the series in Game 4 as Boston let down their guard a bit. But now that the Sixers got a win and the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5, we think it’s of the utmost importance for them for them to close out the series here in Game 5. If they lose here then in Game 6 the Sixers will be sizable favorites back in Philly and then if they won there they would probably be decent favorites in a potential Game 7 back here in Boston. So we know the Boston players and coaches have some urgency here. Boston has been the much better team for most of this series. The lines seem to be set according to how the regular season went as opposed to the postseason as the Sixers are short on experience and the Celtics have the better coaching in this series. They have also now covered in six of the last eight meetings. We think Boston will do everything in their power to end this one on their home court tonight, and we think there’s a good chance they get a comfortable win here.

We took a small stake on the Jazz series price as we thought it was a bit high but Utah blew it in their two home games after stealing a game in Houston and now that play is sunk unless the Jazz can pull off another big upset here. We don’t know about that but the Jazz are a proud team and we think they will play well here in a likely elimination game. They are well-coached and one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and we think they can keep the Rockets offense down to a low enough score to cover this big line. The Rockets are 12-19 ATS when laying double-digit points this season and we don’t think that this game will be a blowout.

10-unit Play Take #926 Milwaukee Brewers over Cleveland Indians (7:40pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers won 86 games last season and they’re on pace to win even more than that in 2018. Still, they get no love in the betting markets. On Tuesday, Milwaukee is a huge underdog at home to the Indians. Sure, Corey Kluber is on the mound. But this is a Cleveland team that is right at the .500 mark this season and has shown some vulnerabilities offensively and in the bullpen. The Brewers trot out Wade Miley for this contest, which doesn’t exactly get bettors all excited. I get that, but the Brewers have done well working with pitchers and Miley looked good in his first outing in a Brewers uniform last time out. This line is about 20 cents too high, so we’re on Milwaukee here.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

When a team goes up 3-0 in a series that normally means the series is over. Philadelphia is a young team and we just don’t see them rising up and playing their best game of the series here. Boston has clearly been the better team in this series. The bookies adjusted this Game 4 line, but we don’t think that they adjusted enough. Boston has shifted into another gear in this postseason and this team is very well coached. You get the feeling that Philly, despite their strong finish in the regular season, is still a ways away from being a credible postseason team. We expect another close game here and you just have to take the points in this matchup with the dominance that the Celtics have shown in this series.

Game 3 was an ugly one for the Jazz and this was kind of the perfect storm in that Utah didn’t play well and the Rockets were just about perfect early. And before the game had even got started it was already over. We always like to back a good team after an embarrassing loss. The Jazz will play much better tonight, we are certain of that. This team has a great home-court advantage and their fans didn’t deserve that effort in Game 3. We think they go extra hard tonight to make amends for that. We think the Jazz team from Game 2 will be the one to show up here tonight.

We can’t believe how high this line is and we have to admit this one has us scratching our head. The Celtics are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and they are clearly the better team in this series. The Sixers are a young team devoid of much playoff experience and we think they might flame out early in this playoff series. They were one of the best teams down the stretch of the regular season, but the playoffs are a whole different animal and it seems like Boston has their number. Not to mention that Boston has the best coach in the playoffs right now and we think he will find a way for Boston to keep this one real competitive and have his team in a position to win it in the fourth quarter.

We backed the Pelicans as a big underdog on the road in Games 1 and 2, but now the spread has shrunk and there is value with the Warriors as home court advantage isn’t a big deal in this series in our opinion. The Warriors have a healthy Steph Curry back and they are in championship form right now. New Orleans played their best in Game 2 and it was good enough to cover the big spread but not nearly good enough to win. And we feel that the Warriors will give it their all tonight in this crucial Game 3. If they lose this is a series but if they win this is all but over, and with Utah stealing Game 2 against the Rockets that gives Golden State even more motivation to finish this one off early so they can rest more before the conference finals.

The Raptors got a wakeup call in Game 1 and the Cavs took back home-court advantage in the series. So Toronto is in a must-win situation tonight or they are in danger of wasting probably the best team they have had in franchise history. Cleveland got a full-team effort in Game 1 but LeBron James’ supporting cast hasn’t stepped up all that often and this team has to be tired after finishing up their 7-Game series against Indiana and then stepping right into this one against a much better team. James can’t give a superhuman effort in every single game and we think he might struggle tonight after playing hero in almost every game. The Cavs can kind of take a moment to breathe here now that they accomplished the mission of stealing one on the road in Game 1. And that extra frame of overtime hurts the Cavs more than the Raptors since they were the more fatigued team coming into this game. The bookies have not adjusted this line from Game 1, but we had this line adjusted to 8, and we think there is a decent chance that Toronto wins this one by double digits.

After New Orleans got their butts handed to them in Game 1 against Golden State we thought they would bounce back and play a much more competitive game in Game 2, and that’s just what happened. We expect the same thing to happen here in Game 2 in Houston. The Jazz got behind big in the first half as they trailed by 20+ points in Game 1 but they played much better in the second half and they made the game respectable at the end. We think they will carry that positive momentum over here to Game 2. The Jazz are a very good team and they play excellent defense and great fundamental team basketball. We just don’t see them getting blown out in two straight games, and pride should kick in for this team after playing so poorly in the first half in Game 1. The Rockets are 12-18 ATS when laying double digits this season so they haven’t flourished in the role of the big favorite. We think this game will be much closer and the Jazz are good enough to challenge for the win.

We will give the Pelicans a mulligan for Game 1. That was an embarrassing loss for a team that has played as well as anyone in the NBA the last month+. We think that it was more of an off game than any sign that the series will be a four-game blowout. New Orleans had covered in nine straight games before that Game 1 loss and we expect them to play much better here tonight. And we are getting an even better line here than we did in Game 1. Even though the total has been inflated after the over just missed in Game 1, we expect the Pelicans to be more competitive and the pace here should be very fast as the Pels have stated they won’t slow down despite the Game 1 result. If New Orleans had played better on offense that total may have surpassed 240 because of the pace, and we think that might be the kind of game we see tonight.

The Sixers are the much better team in this matchup. Boston was lucky to get by Milwaukee in the first round and we think they are in over their head here in Round 2. Next year they will be a force with Irving and Hayward back in the fold, but this year they just have too many injuries to win against such a stacked team like Philly. The Sixers have been resting up while Boston had to play a Game 7 just on Saturday and we don’t think they will have much left here. The Sixers should be able to reach their offensive goals against a fatigued team. We just can’t see the Celtics locking in on defense and slowing this Sixers team down since they just ended their last series. Philly is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in Boston. We see that trend staying true tonight and we think there is a great chance the Sixers can put up 110+ here so the over is the play.

We would bet the Jazz at this line every day of the week and once again on Tuesday. Absolutely love this one. You are telling us that the Jazz are getting just about the same line as the Timberwolves did when they played in Houston? Sign us up. We are not convinced that the Rockets are a true championship contender yet. They should have swept the Wolves and each game should have been a double-digit win. They did get some blowouts in that series but they also lost one game in blowout fashion and they almost lost Game 1 as well. And remember, although Chris Paul is probably at his best when paired with Harden this guy is a known playoff loser and has never advanced beyond this round of the postseason with any team during his illustrious career. That streak will probably end this year, but it’s no sure thing and the Jazz should be very competitive in this series. They are as hot as any team in the NBA down the stretch of the season and they play great defense and can heat up on offense to match any team.

We have a futures play for the Jazz in this series and we think they will close it out tonight at home here in Game 6 with an exclamation point. They had better get it done tonight as they will be underdogs again if they have to go back to OKC for Game 7. We think Utah is the better team despite the records for the regular season. Both teams got off to a slow start, but Utah had to deal with a lot of injuries early in the season but they have been one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch. They have it all as they are solid on both offense and defense, and they play better team basketball than do the Thunder. OKC for a massive performance from Russell Westbrook in Game 5 and that’s why they won that game. But I don’t think that they can count on him doing the same in consecutive games and here on the road in Utah, one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Utah won comfortably in both games at home in this series and we see the same result here tonight. We think they lock down on defense and their offense has been explosive at home in the last couple months. OKC always gets a little more credit than they should from the oddsmakers as they have the big names on the roster but this Big 3 experiment has been a disaster and we see their season ending tonight and think there’s a good chance Utah wins this one by double digits.

The season is on the line for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight as they face elimination at home in Game 6 of this series. We expect them to rise to the occasion. They played well enough to win in two of the three games in Boston and they were very impressive in their two home wins even though they let Boston rally for the backdoor cover in Game 4. Milwaukee has a really great home court advantage and this is the most important game in years for Bucks fans, and we think the crowd will be a factor tonight. The home team has won in every game in this series. We expect that trend to continue tonight and this line is more than fair. Also, it looks like the public is big on the Celtics here so this play is a nice public fade. Milwaukee has the best player on the court tonight, and we expect the Greek Freak to rise to the occasion. The NBA is a star-driven league and the Celtics just don’t fit the bill in these playoffs with multiple injuries to big-name players this season.

The Cavs are a team that we have faded all season with much success. But this team is still better than the Pacers, who were expected to be one of the worst teams in the east entering the season. They have some momentum here after evening up the season with a Game 4 win in Indiana. This is the most crucial game for the Cavs and if they lose this one they are in big trouble. Superstars get the best treatment from the refs and we have a feeling that LeBron will get a lot of calls tonight. The games aren’t fixed but the NBA definitely favors the best players and you see it year after year with the lopsided officiating. And do you think the NBA wants the Pacers to advance here in this series? We think the Cavs will have a big game tonight and this line has been adjusted the wrong way.

We often like to back a good team after a bad loss and that is the case here as Houston was embarrassed last time out here in this same building. But despite that Game 3 result this is still a mismatch and we expect the Rockets to make quick work of this series and close it out back in Houston in Game 5. That Game 3 result was an embarrassing one for the No. 1 seed in the west and they will come out more focused here and they shouldn’t have to work too hard to earn a comfortable win here. We think this could be a possible double-digit win for the road club tonight.

We think the Wolves had their chance in Game 1 when the Rockets had an off game, but they blew it. Now this series is all Houston. We are getting a solid line here since the Rockets are on the road, but this team was 24-17 ATS on the road this season despite facing some very inflated numbers. We actually had this line handicapped at Houston -7.5 so we think this line has very nice value. We like the Wolves as a team but this squad looks like they are just happy to be here in the postseason and they need to grow and add another piece or two before we can take them seriously as a real contender.

Toronto in our eyes is the clear-cut best team in the east and the third best team in the NBA. We had them handicapped at -2.5 in this game so this is great value getting them at an underdog price. Washington is often overvalued at home this season as their 16-24-1 ATS record can attest to. The Raptors have covered in four of the last five meetings after wins and covers in Games 1 and 2. We like the Wizards as a team but this squad is pretty thin on the bench and the Raptors are a very deep team and the much better squad overall. This looks like a series that could end up in a sweep and we think the road team pulls out a close one here on Friday to put Washington on the brink of elimination.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Spurs right now, they have to deal with off-the-court issues for Game 3 here as Gregg Popovich’s wife passed away and he will miss the game tonight. Everyone in the NBA is mourning but the Warriors are very focused and they won’t give the Spurs any sympathy on the court tonight. And Pop is arguably the best coach in the NBA so even with his top assistants running he show this still hurts the Spurs for in-game adjustments. Golden State is in fine form right now and they coasted through the regular season to excel in the playoffs and we think they will clamp down on the Spurs throat tonight in the next step to end this series in four games.

Game 1 wasn’t a fluke. The Cavaliers are way down this year and they don’t look like a team that is going to do anything of significance in these playoffs. After dropping Game 1 we think they will find a way to win this one but we are scratching our head about this line as the bookies did not make any adjustment after Game 1 was all Indiana. LeBron James did his part for the Cavs, but he didn’t have any help. Indiana has a lot of confidence coming into this one. All the pressure is on Cleveland here. The Pacers were not even supposed to make the playoffs, but here they are with a chance to do some damage in the first round and they can play loose and free while the Cavs will be desperate. But they don’t have the tools this year to contend, and LeBron can’t carry this team all by himself.

We were on Milwaukee for Game 1 and it was sort of a bad beat as they were getting four points and were down by 3 as they hit a miracle shot at the buzzer to take the game to OT, where they lost by six in the extra frame. We think the Bucks will win this series and we think that they take Game 2 here. Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks is a real superstar and the best player on the court tonight and we think the playoffs are the time when he will rise up and lead his team. We just can’t see this Boston team with all its injuries this season winning this series, and this Game 2 is crucial for the Bucks. Milwaukee had a back-and-forth regular season but we think that this team is built for the postseason and we expect them to at least advance to the next round. When you have a star like the Greek Freak you will tend to get the calls from the refs in the postseason as well. Milwaukee played a very uneven game in Game 1 and they still were in a position to win it late. We expect them to play a more complete game here on Tuesday in Game 2.

The Clippers have just dominated this series as they have won in six straight meetings and they have covered in five of those games as well. This is a rivalry and the Clippers take pride in beating the Lakers since they are the little brother in the city of Los Angeles. But even though neither team is going to the postseason, the Clippers are the much better team. This is a playoff-quality club and they should be in the postseason but the West is even tougher than normal this year so they just missed it. They have been playing lately like a team that had too much pressure on its shoulders but we think they will play free and have fun tonight in the final game of the season, and their final chance to play together as this team will probably go through many changes in the offseason. The Clips are coming off three bad losses to playoff-type teams and we know they don’t want to end what has been a surprisingly solid season with four straight and we think they give max effort tonight.

We think the Wizards will get back on track here tonight, as they have more motivation in this game since the Celtics are locked into the No. 2 seed in the east and can’t move up or down. Both teams have been playing badly but the Celtics have more problems with injuries and such while the Wizards are healthy for this game. These teams could meet in the playoffs and you get the feeling that Celtics coach Brad Stevens might not care much about winning this game as not to tip his hand to his postseason strategies.

We just don’t like the Bucks as a big favorite. And their opponent tonight has done very well as a big underdog. The Bucks are 1-7 ATS this season when laying eight or more points. This is a team that just does not earn expected blowouts. The Magic are 10-3 ATS when getting double-digit points this season, making them one of the best bets in the NBA as a big underdog. The Magic are being punished too much for being on a bac-to-back here, and they are 7-0 ATS in the second half of their last seven back-to-backs. They are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series. Orlando is another team that looks like they want to finish the season on a positive note, and we will back them getting double digits here tonight.

We were on Detroit on Sunday and that was a disaster as they were blown out in Memphis. But this team has been playing pretty well overall down the stretch and we think they will put forth a much better effort tonight after the embarrassing effort they displayed on Sunday. Toronto is pretty much on cruise control to finish the season. If this team wants to flex their muscles they can beat any team on any night. But this squad has locked up the No. 1 seed in the east and they have nothing to play for. If Detroit hadn’t lost badly on Sunday we might not like this play so much but we think that gives them incentive to play well here and they were possibly looking ahead to this game on Sunday as well.

Detroit waited until they were essentially eliminated from the playoff hunt to start playing well, but here we are and they are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season. This team has won eight of their last 10 and they have figure out how to win on the road, too. Memphis is banged up as always and this team doesn’t have anything to play for. They have been one of the worst teams in the NBA down the stretch. This team played recent games against New Orleans and Portland and they head on the road next to face Minnesota and OKC. We doubt they get too amped to play this non-playoff team from the east and if they are going to pull a full effort out of their bag of tricks it would likely come against a more traditional rival.

The Clippers would probably make the playoffs if they had an easier schedule down the stretch. This is a pretty good team and they work hard every night. But they just have an uphill climb to reach the postseason. This game comes after hosting San Antonio, in a game where you almost feel like they “left it all on the court” with a furious comeback, and then they host the Nuggets and Pelicans in their next two games. And that is going to be too tough to overcome. This is their last road game of the season, and we don’t see this going well for them. Utah is very strong at home and they are just the better team. We think that the Jazz have a good chance to win this one by double digits, and we expect Utah to flex their muscles here as the Clippers look like a team that peaked too soon and the weight of this brutal season-ending schedule is starting to show in some poor recent results for this squad, like the Indiana game at home where the Clippers needed a win but choked the game away in the fourth quarter.

Both teams enter off a back-to-back. But Dallas has to travel here on the road, which makes things a lot tougher. Both teams won last night. Dallas beat Portland at home. That was a big win for them. They are probably satisfied with that win as the season winds down and after playing playoff-type teams the last three games we think they won’t care much about this road opponent tonight. The Magic earned a much less impressive win last night since they only beat the Knicks. But they did it on the road and they won by 20+, so it was impressive in its own right. The Magic have the big advantage of being home tonight and they will want to play well in front of the home fans and maybe build a little winning streak here with momentum coming off of one of their most impressive wins of the season. Their defense was awesome last night and we think they can hold the Mavs to a real low score here as well.

Toronto has covered in only one of the last six meetings (one push). We think this is a good spot for the Cavs here. Cleveland is a team we have been fading almost all season, and they have been the worst betting team in the league. But with the playoffs fast approaching we think it’s time to go the other way as this team is taking games more seriously. And they will want to flex their muscles here against the Raptors in a potential playoff preview. Toronto has a much more important game on Wednesday vs. Boston and they might not go full bore here in a more meaningless matchup. If they win vs. the Celtics that will go a long way towards sealing up the No. 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. Toronto has failed to cover the line now in eight straight games. They are in cruise control until the postseason, and Wednesday’s game might be the last one they take seriously down the stretch of the season (assuming they win).

10 Unit Play. Take #602 Villanova over Michigan (9:20p.m., Monday April 2 TBS) Villanova has just been head and shoulders above everyone else in this tournament. They only game they did not play well offensively was their regional final against Texas Tech. They still controlled that game throughout and covered the spread with ease. Michigan has not been shooting it well of late but they have been getting by with a super easy draw. That will not be the case on Monday as they face the best team in the country. Throw in the fact that Michigan has not performed well in the national championship game and expect Villanova to win by 10-12 points. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Big 10 teams.

The Clippers have a couple different levels of motivation here. First, they lost to Indiana on the road a little over a week ago. It was a pretty close game throughout. Revenge is not an angle we use for NBA handicapping too much, but when the teams played recently it takes on a bigger importance, and we have no doubt that the Clips don’t want to look back at these two games against a beatable opponent and see that’s what kept them out of the playoffs. Secondly, the Clippers need to win every game they can. They are on the outside looking in for the playoff picture and they have a very tough schedule down the stretch while the Pacers are more secure in their playoff positioning. Lastly, the Clippers are coming off one of their worst games in a couple weeks last time out in Portland and they will want to put forth a better effort here. We thought this line should be closer to 5.5 so we think there is nice value here for Sunday!

Golden State has been dealing with a lot of injuries. They have lost three straight, all at home no less, and that just doesn’t happen with this team. This is a team with a lot of pride. And the best talent in the league. And we think they come out with a vengeance tonight and win this one big over the tanking Kings. Thompson should be back on the court tonight and this team will have all its All-Stars besides Curry and that is a really formidable club. Also, Kevin Durant was ejected last game so we think he comes out with a monster game to make things right. This team should be very focused tonight, and they are extremely dangerous with that mindset!

This Cleveland team is one we have been fading for most of the year but we think now is the time to go the other way on this team, which has been the worst bet in the NBA all season. But now that we are in the playoff stretch run this team is staring to play really well and they are shaping into playoff form and seem to be taking the games more seriously. They have won five straight and have covered four in a row. The Hornets have won four straight, but those were against really bad teams, and they needed OT to get by the Knicks last time out, at home no less. Cleveland has won eight in a row in the series and they have covered all but two of the spreads during that streak (one push).

All the playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are secure but that is not the case at all in the Western Conference and every game is more crucial out west. And this is another of what is basically a must-win game for the Clippers and every game will probably be like that down the stretch as this game is a couple games out of the playoff hunt and they have a very tough schedule down the line. They play six of their final nine at home so every one of these games carries increased importance. The Clippers just won in Milwaukee last week. They will be very motivated here tonight. This game is sandwiched between games against the Spurs and Warriors for Milwaukee, and that gives this one the potential for a letdown from the road team.

10 Unit Play. Take #780 Penn State over Mississippi State (9:30p.m., Tuesday March 27 ESPN) NIT GAME OF THE YEAR Penn State and their fans really care about the NIT and I expect them to advance to the finals of this tournament on Thursday night in New York City. The Lions have won two straight road games and both were not as close as the final score would indicate. They should have a big crowd for this game and expect them to pull away against Mississippi late and win by 7-9 points. The Bulldogs played their best game of the season last time out and as we have seen in the NCAA Tournament it is very hard to repeat those performances this next day. Penn State is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 neutral site games. Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game.

This road trip started off really bad for the Nuggets with an inexplicable loss to the Grizzlies then they dropped their next one, in overtime, to the Heat. But now they are getting back on track and they come into this game with some momentum after a blowout in Chicago and a very impressive straight up win as an underdog in Washington. Motivation will be a huge factor in this matchup tonight and Denver needs this game more. They are currently in the No. 9 spot in the Western Conference playoff picture and they are 1.5 games behind Utah while the Sixers can relax more since they are in the playoffs. We think the Nuggets match up well here and expect them to compete for the win tonight.

The Clippers haven’t been playing well. And neither have the Raptors. Toronto basically has the No. 1 seed all but locked up in the Eastern Conference and they seem to be on cruise control until the playoffs. They have dealt with some injuries lately and they seem more concerned about health than winning big down this stretch run. They haven’t covered now in five straight games. With Utah losing to the Spurs on Friday and the Timberwolves floundering a little, slim chances for the Clippers have opened up for the playoffs. They are 2.5 games out of the No. 8 spot and 3.5 out of No. 7. With the Warriors ailing there is a legit chance for any team in the West to do some damage, but this Clippers team must get there first. And this is basically a must-win game for them. We are not sure if they can win it, but we expect them to give maximum effort and we don’t see the same coming from the Toronto side. This line was already inflated a bit to start with. But we expect a close game here, and the Clippers have done very well as a big dog this season as they are 6-1 ATS when getting nine or more points.

10 Unit Play. Take #722 Kansas over Duke (5:05p.m., Sunday March 25 CBS) Kansas has not performed well in this game in recent years to go along with a terrible Elite 8 record by Bill Self. But this is a much different situation, as they are not a heavy favorite like in past years. Nobody will blame Kansas for losing this game against Duke and that lack of pressure will help them a great deal to play free and worrysome. Duke is still a young team and they have not shown the consistency of being a great team very often this year. Kansas has experience and they also have Azubuike at center to negate some of Duke’s interior presence. The Jayhawks are a great three-point shooting team and if can make shots from behind the arc they will win this game. Everyone is in love with Duke, but I feel this is a very tough spot for them having to play Kansas in Omaha, NE. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against ACC teams. Do not be fooled by the final score of Kansas games in the NCAA Tournament, as they have controlled all three games only to let up a little at the end in the last two. There game against Clemson was not close. This one will be close by Kansas will win it by 3-5 points.

The Suns best players are all probably out here. This team is coming in on a back-to-back after getting blown out at Cleveland last night in a game they probably wanted to perform better in than this one tonight. We know it’s hard to lay points with a team as bad as Orlando but this team has some talent and this is like a real NBA team playing a D-League squad tonight. And a tired one at that. Orlando has had lots of injuries this season but this team is relatively healthy right now. They have been playing hard and have been covering lines with somewhat regularity. That’s unlike the Suns, who haven’t covered in five straight, and that’s despite getting very generous odds from the bookies. They lost by 15 or more in all of those games. While they faced a tough schedule, we don’t think this team has enough in the tank to overachieve tonight and they don’t have the talent on the floor to keep this one competitive. Orlando will have a chance for a rare home blowout tonight and we think that will be just what happens.

10 Unit Play. Take #513 Loyola Chicago over Kansas State (6:05p.m., Saturday March 24 TBS) The Wildcats are just not being embarked like the Ramblers. Most of the K-State fan base hates their coach and they were just 10-8 in conference play. Dean Wade could do damage in this game, but he barely played on Thursday and will not be close to 100% for this game. Loyola has been embraced by the entire country and Sister Jean and her magic is for real. This team plays a lower pace and takes high percentage shots and destroyed Nevada for the first 15 minutes of the second half. Loyola is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 12 teams. Kansas State is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 nonconference game.

10 Unit Play. Take #873 Texas Tech over Purdue (9:55p.m., Friday March 23 TBS) Purdue has able to survive without Isaac Haas against Butler but I do not believe they will be able to do that for a second game. Texas Tech was red hot during the nonconference portion of the season before struggling with injuries down the stretch in Big 12 play. They are healthier now and I believe they will advance to the Elite 8. Purdue has not had any success in this round lately usually getting blown out in the Sweet 16. Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against Big 10 teams. Purdue is 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games overall.

You always have to look at the Nets when they are getting a nice amount of points. This team is 24-8 against the spread when getting six or more points as an underdog this season. They always seem to get up for these kind of games and this team has been in the Top 10 of the ATS rankings all year. Toronto has failed to cover in four straight games and they have lost two of their last three straight out, so this team isn’t in top form right now.  We think the Nets have a great chance to keep this one within double digits.

Both of these teams stink, but we think the Kings are the better ballclub and we expect to get a low spread here in a game we think the Kings should roll in. Sacramento has been very competitive lately and they have actually covered in seven of their last 10 games. They are playing with some pride while many teams are straight out tanking. That latter category would be the Hawks, who have been losing many games by double digits lately. They have covered in only two of their last eight games despite getting some very favorable numbers. The Kings will be well rested heading into this game with two nights off. Also the Hawks play Golden State tomorrow and the Rockets on Sunday, so they probably want to save their energy here as a competitive game over either of those team would be more to hang their hat on than a competitive game against the Kings.

New Orleans is on the only back-to-back-to-back of the season tonight vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They beat Indiana last night in a make up game from earlier in the season. This is unprecedented lack of rest for the NBA season, and we don’t see it going so well for the home team tonight. We are getting a more than fair line here for the underdog as the Pelicans have won three straight and covered four straight, but we had the Lakers listed as slight favorites in this one and expect them to win this game. The Lakers have had two nights off coming into this game and they had two nights off before their last game, so they are well rested here. And after three straight losses we think the Lakers will really try and take advantage of this bad situation the Pelicans are in tonight.

The Spurs have suddenly gotten their act together and it looks like this team might be getting ready to peak heading into the playoff stretch run, and they have won four straight entering this game. They don’t have a lot of room for error after a real bad stretch of games this past month, so they won’t rest on their laurels and be happy with the four wins. Even with their struggles they have compiled a 27-8 record at home this season. And they have the best coach in the game that can guide them through this crucial stretch to the playoffs. Aldridge has really stepped up during this win streak and he is now leading this team. The Spurs have won three straight in this series and we expect them to continue to play well here in this crucial matchup.

There’s no doubt that the Blazers are playing excellent basketball right now. But they aren’t anywhere near as good as the Rockets. Houston this year is like Golden State a couple years ago when they set the NBA regular-season record for wins. They want to win every game and with a chance to end the Blazers big winning streak they have extra motivation here. While the Warriors have taken a more relaxed approach to the regular season, the Rockets seem to want to lock up that No. 1 seed and they want to flex their muscle against potential Western Conference Playoff teams. We respect what the Blazers have been doing but they won’t win every game and we think this test will be too tough for them on Tuesday night.

The Hornets have been a tire fire lately. You can just look at their last game to see how much effort that this team is putting in lately. They lost by 23 in New York to the Knicks on Saturday. Their only recent wins came against Atlanta, Phoenix and Chicago, and they face a big step up in competition tonight. The Sixers have won and covered in four straight meetings in this series. They have won three of four overall and they have been off since Friday so they have had the whole weekend to rest and prepare for this game. This one has double-digit blowout written all over it.

We wanted to release this pick early to take advantage of what looks like great line value with the Clippers. The Blazers are at halftime with the Pistons as I write this and they are up big and it looks like they will win easy and bring their 12-game winning streak into Staples Center on Sunday to take on the Clippers. It’s always tough to play in the road in the NBA on a back-to-back. The Blazers win streak is impressive, but they have had a home-heavy schedule and they have played their fair share of teams with issues. The Clips need this win badly as they lost their last two, but those were tough games at Houston and OKC, and they didn’t embarrass themselves in either. We think this is a good spot for them to get back on track against a tired team. The Clippers have really been underestimated by the oddsmakers after their stars left the team but they are playing great basketball and they will play with purpose against a team on a back-to-back that is probably a bit overrated right now.

10 Unit Play. Take #717 Nevada over Cincinnati (6:10p.m., Sunday March 18 TNT) Just do not like Cincinnati as this big of a favorite against an experienced an athletic team. Nevada is riding high now after their comeback victory against Texas and sooner or later they will get hot in this game from the three-point line. Cincinnati likes to play from in front and if Nevada can withstand the early punch they should be able to take this game down to the wire. Nevada is 33-14 ATS (4 pushes) in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

The Blazers are looking for win No. 12 in a row tonight and we think that they get it in a big way against the struggling Pistons. The Blake Griffin trade gutted the depth of this team and they don’t have much of an identity and they are lacking leaders and team chemistry. The result has been a 1-16 record in their last 17 road games. The season is over for this team and they know it even though they are not mathematically eliminated at this point. They would have to turn the whole season around and from what we have seen since a hot start to the season, this team just doesn’t have it in them. The Blazers are laser focused right now and we think they will go for the jugular against this struggling Detroit squad.

The Nets had Thursday off while the Sixers will be on a back-to-back here. We watched their game on Thursday and they used a lot of energy in a rally to win but not cover the line. They looked pretty lethargic most of the game but had to give everything they could to salvage the game late in the fourth. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping factor for NBA but it does come into play when the teams recently met and Philly blew the Nets out on Sunday in Brooklyn. We think that can and will play much better here with Philly on no rest. The Nets are a Top 6 ATS team this season and they are getting too many points tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #880 Nevada over Texas (4:30p.m., Friday March 16 TBS) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR Just do not believe that Texas is set up to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. They have great size, but they do not shoot it well at all from the three-point line. Nevada has a very experienced team with great guards. They laid an egg in the semi-finals of the MWC Tournament, but they have not had much success against San Diego State. They are thin with players, so the extra rest likely did them good for this game. Nevada has been ranked for most of the season and getting away from MWC teams should do them good for this game. Texas will have a major edge in size, but I do not believe that they will be able to exploit that enough for 40 minutes to win this game. Texas is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Texas is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against MWC teams. Nevada is 17-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games following a loss in their previous game.

Once again the Cavs are overrated by the oddsmakers because we had this game handicapped at 6.5 and we would lean to the Blazers at that number as well. Cleveland is 17-17 on the road this season while Portland, with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, is 23-11 here on their home court. They have won 10 straight and 12 of their last 13 and they are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. Yet they continue to get underestimated by the bookies. They have covered in 11 of their last 13 games. They will be hyped for this opponent and they should bring their A Game while the Cavs keep trying to figure things out and it doesn’t work more often than it does lately.

10 Unit Play. Take #731 San Diego State over Houston (7:20p.m., Thursday March 15 TBS) I truly believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. San Diego State has been outstanding of late having won 9 straight games. They were never in danger of losing anyone of those 9 games in the final minute. Houston had Cincinnati on the ropes Sunday before a complete scoring collapse in the second half. I do not see them recovering in time for this game. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. The Aztecs have been in win or go home for their last 4 games and they keep it going on Thursday. The money line is very inviting proposition for this game, but we will just stick with the point spread.

The Warriors have been a tricky team to bet on this year. The year they set the NBA record for regular-season wins they seemed to cover just about any line the bookies threw at them. If we could travel back in time this line would probably be 13 points or so. But this season the Warriors are saving themselves for the postseason. They have taken the Cavs philosophy of not really caring much about the wins and losses. However, when this team is motivated they are a good bet. And we feel that is the case tonight. They have lost two straight games. This team does not like losing streaks. We expect to see the championship-level Warriors tonight. They have had two nights off and they will be primed for an excellent performance here.

The Pelicans have lost two straight in blowout fashion, but that has created value here as they face a big step down in competition as those two losses were to the Wizards and Jazz. And this team has still covered in seven of their last 10 games despite those less-than-favorable performances in their last two. We think they are in a good position to get back on the winning track Here. Charlotte has lost five of their last six but won last time out. But they only beat Phoenix by seven at home and they were favored by 13. We think this line is way too short. The Pelicans have also covered in 11 of the last 13 meetings here at home, and we see that trend staying solid here on Tuesday night in the Big Easy.

It’s not often that you get double digit points with the Spurs, but we will take that, and then some, tonight. The Spurs haven’t been playing good basketball. They have lost 10 of their last 13. Aldridge is out tonight. But this team still has a lot of talent, and they have the best coach in the game. And they are a very proud group. And they are suddenly in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in a couple decades. We don’t think there is any doubt that the Spurs will play hard tonight against their in-state rival. And Leonard is set to return this week and that will give the Spurs an extra boost kind of the way the Pistons started to play with more confidence right after the Blake Griffin trade before he even joined the team. The Rockets are on a back-to-back here. This is their third game in four nights while the Spurs had the night off Sunday. James Harden is banged up. There’s also probably a natural regression since their winning streak ended and we think that they played really hard during the long winning streak and it’s normal to stop playing with such intensity once something like that ends. The Spurs played the Warriors and the Thunder pretty tough on this road trip and we think that they will come to play tonight and play a prideful game even though a straight up win might be a tough accomplishment.

This is the last game of a four-game road trip for the Sixers and they have lost two of three and this road trip will be considered a disaster if they don’t win this one to split the trip 2-2, especially since they have been favored in all but one game and were only one-point dogs in Miami last time out. They gave a pretty poor effort in that Miami game and we think they will put their A Game on the floor tonight against a very beatable opponent. This is the first game back home after a long road trip for the Nets and that can normally be a soft spot for the home team. Brooklyn is a very good ATS team but this team normally does its best work when getting massive points but we don’t think Philly will have any problem covering this small line in a game where we expect them to be very motivated while this is just another game for the Nets in the long dog days of the NBA season.

We think this is way too many points for the Clippers to be laying against a Magic team that has been sneaky good lately. Orlando is 8-2 ATS when getting double digit points this season. Orlando is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at Staples Center and we think they will keep this game close tonight.  Yes, the Magic come in on a back-to-back, but this team is young and they should have no problem with heavy legs. The Clippers are on a back-to-back as well, but they played a huge game against the Cavs last night and they got the win. Now they head on the road after this game and they have a big matchup against Houston coming up and we see this as a big letdown spot.

10 Unit Play. Take #531 West Virginia over Kansas (6p.m., Saturday March 10 ESPN) CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR. Revenge will be served on the court tonight in Kansas City. The Jayhawks have had a cakewalk to the finals, but this is the game that they will miss having Udoka Azubuike. West Virginia should be 2-0 against Kansas this year but lost both games at the end despite controlling them. Throw in the fact that they got jobbed in the last meeting with a 35-2 free throw disparity and the Mountaineers have had this game circled since 2/17. This is game West Virginia wants and they will win it by 8-10 points. This is not a typical Kansas team this season, as they have lost a ton of home games and have very little size in the paint. West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

Both teams are playing some incredible basketball right now and this is the marquee matchup for Friday. The Rockets, however, will be playing their third game in four nights, all on the road, and we think this is a good spot for their winning streak to end tonight. The Raptors blew out Houston, in Texas no less, in the last meeting, and we don’t think that they will be intimidated. They will bring their A Game for sure, and they have had a much more favorable schedule even though this will be their third in four as well, but that is much easier at home than on the road. Toronto is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings at home in this series and we think that trend will continue tonight.

It’s hard to take a flier here on a bad team like the Suns, but this is more of a play against the Thunder than for Phoenix. The Thunder are one of those teams that seems to sink to their level of competition. This team is 8-20 ATS when laying six or more points this season. This is one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA and they are always overrated by the oddsmakers. These teams played about a week ago and the Suns held tough at home and led for most of the game but they fell apart late in the fourth and barely missed the cover. But they are familiar with this Thunder squad now with such a recent meeting and we think they will play well here against a big number. The Suns also had two nights off heading into this matchup, and this game is sandwiched between matchups against the Rockets and Spurs for the Thunder, so this is a prime letdown spot.

10 Unit Play. Take #682 Richmond over Duquesne (6p.m., Thursday March 8 NBCSN) No bet against Duquesne is a bad bet. The Duke finished the season losing 9 of their last 11 games. Richmond had a terrible nonconference portion of the season but did show some life in Atlantic 10 play to finish with a respectable 9-9 record. They had a long losing streak of their own but did stabilize things winning their last two games. This is a young Spider team and they have a brighter future ahead and expect them to win this game and advance to the quarterfinals. Richmond won the first meeting by 4 points in Pittsburgh. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Richmond is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games against Duquesne.

7 Unit Play. Take #718 Nevada -5.5 over UNLV (3p.m., Thursday March 8 CBSSN) TOP COLLEGE HOOPS PLAY OF THE DAY. Just do not see a way UNLV does not get run over. It will not be the quite as bad as the game last Wednesday but it will still be a double digit victory. Despite this game being played on their home floor, UNLV has had no success in this tournament in recent years and they were take to overtime by Air Force yesterday. Nevada has a bad taste in their mouth after losing to San Diego State last time out and they need to make a statement in this game to assure they receive to 6/7 seed in the NCAA Tournament last week. UNLV did beat them in Reno this season but Nevada was without their leading scorer in that game. UNLV is 12-37 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 52 conference games. The favorite has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this match-up.

We love to fade the Cavs, the worst ATS team in the NBA this season. They are a very public team so the bookies don’t have to adjust their lines on this team. This line should be closer to 6 or 6.5. Denver just beat the Cavs by nine in Cleveland a few days ago. Normally that would be a revenge spot but the Cavs have bigger problems than obsessing over revenge against an out-of-conference opponent. If the Cavs were out for revenge they would have a lot of enemies this year because they have lost way more games than expected. We love the way the Nuggets are playing right now and they are rightfully playing like their playoff lives depend on every win. We see them bringing their A Game tonight.

We have been big on the Raptors lately with much success, but we think that this is a bad spot for them on Wednesday. They are coming in on a back-to-back on the road against a desperate team that has revenge on their minds because of an embarrassing beatdown in Toronto late last month. The Raptors will be playing their third game in four nights and they will likely be running on fumes here in what would likely be a close game even without the fatigue factor for the visitors. Not sure what’s up with the Pistons, who should be playing better than they have been, but we think this is a good spot for them to challenge for the straight up win.

10 Unit Play. Take #625 Oklahoma over Oklahoma State (7p.m., Wednesday March 7 ESPN U) This may be a winner take all game with the team that emerges victorious making the NCAA Tournament and the loser in serious bubble trouble. It is hard to have any faith in Oklahoma, but this handicapper does. The Sooners won 2 of their last 3 and had good success against the Cowboys beating them by 20 and losing a hard fought 2-point game. They still have the best player on the floor and Lon Kruger is too good a coach not to have his team ready for this all-important game. Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory in their previous game.

The Warriors seem content to finish in second place in the west. They learned during their record-setting regular season a couple years ago that expending too much energy during the regular season will hurt you in the postseason. So this team hasn’t hit it’s extra gear in awhile. The Warriors are 10-14 ATS when laying more than 14 points this season and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six against Eastern Conference teams, who they have seemed particularly bored against lately. The Nets are 11-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and we were impressed with their effort Sunday at the Clippers. We think they play hard again here, and they have covered the last two meetings between these clubs.

The Pelicans eight-game winning streak comes to an end tonight. Their winning streak came against mostly bad teams, even though they had a couple big wins during that span. But they face a real tough test tonight and we think the Clippers are in a good spot to take this game. LA has covered in six of their last eight games. The bookies keep underestimating this team. They don’t have any big stars since Blake Griffin and Chris Paul left the squad. But they are playing better team basketball now then they ever did with those two stars, and Doc Rivers is doing some of the best coaching work of his career this year. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams in Los Angeles, and they already scored a nine-point win in New Orleans the last time these teams met.

Portland has a very strong history betting-wise here in LA as they are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings here, and they always seemed to play well here even when the Lakers were good. We think this line is way too short tonight. The Blazers are playing extremely well and have won seven of their last nine. The Lakers have won five straight, but only one of those wins, last time out at San Antonio, was against a legit team, and the Spurs have a lot of problems right now. A win against Miami was less impressive and they also beat Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas, three of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They will be in tough tonight. The Blazers have to keep winning as they are one of many teams bunched up behind the Warriors and Rockets in the West, and we think they bring their A Game once again tonight.

The Celtics have been playing better of late and had the Rockets on the ropes in Houston before losing late and we think this will be a blowout here in Chicago on Monday. The Celtics have covered in five of the last six meetings and they won by 25 at home the last time these teams met in December. Boston has covered in four of their last five games overall so they are trending up in the betting markets. The Bulls, despite getting some very favorable lines from the bookies, have covered only two of their last eight and this team more often than not does not put in the effort on the court on a nightly basis.

The more we see Houston play and grow together as a team, the more we think they could be a serious threat to Golden State’s supremacy in the Western Conference. The Warriors seem to have lost a bit of their hunger while the Rockets are as hungry as ever. The more we see the Celtics play the more we think this is a good team but not a great one. Houston will want to showcase themselves on national TV here and we think that this one has a great chance to be a 10+-point win.

10 Unit Play. Take #600 Utah over Colorado (7p.m., Saturday March 3 PAC12N) TOP COLLEGE HOOPS PLAY OF THE DAY. Utah still has life with regards to the NCAA Tournament but they need a double-digit victory today to close out the regular season. They Utes played their worst game of the season last time out and they have had a week to sit on that performance. The Buffaloes have not been playing well down the stretch losing three of their last four games and Utah has revenge on their minds. When Colorado loses they tend to lose big and expect that to be the case yet again on Saturday. Colorado is 18-38 ATS (1 push) in their last 57 road games. Utah is 38-13 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 53 road games against teams with a losing road record. 

This feels like one of those games the Warriors might slog through as it’s the end of a trip and ahead of three days off. The Hawks have done very well against the Western Conference this season in going 7-1 ATS.  The Hawks have covered two of the last three meetings and they lost by only eight in the non-cover during the last meeting, which was also on this home court. We think one team here will be giving max effort, and that won’t be the Warriors.

The Wolves started life without Jimmy Butler a couple games ago and they haven’t really skipped a beat. They won and covered both games pretty easily. But they face a much tougher test tonight after playing the Kings and Bulls in their last two games. This is the type of game where the loss of Butler will really start to be felt. Portland has won four straight and six of seven. And they didn’t just beat pushovers, as their wins included games against the Warriors and they also broke the Jazz’s long home winning streak. This team is peaking right now and we think they are underrated by the oddsmakers here tonight.

The Clippers have won both meetings this year. Those results were pretty shocking and we think they had more to do with an off night from the Rockets than anything the Clippers did. You have to hand it to LA, they are playing harder than they ever had when they employed Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and Coach Doc Rivers has done a masterful job coaching this ragtag squad. But they are coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win last night in Denver and they won’t have much left here against a Houston team that will want to make a statement here.

The Spurs are back home after their long road trip and they have lost four of five. That win did come on the road against the Cavs last time out, however, so we think the pendulum is swinging the other way for this team. They have a favorable home-heavy schedule the next few games and even though this is the toughest matchup, they will be eager to get back on track. This team is 22-6 at home and has one of the best home-court advantages in basketball. New Orleans has been playing well but this is their third game in four nights and they have also had a couple OT games recently, so they won’t have the energy needed to keep this game competitive.

Toronto is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They seem to have their eyes set on the No. 1 seed in the east and home-court advantage and they have not been letting up. Their only loss in the last nine games was in OT vs. the Bucks, another streaking team. The Magic are in a freefall. They have lost six straight. This team looks to be in full tank mode with a strong draft ahead. Toronto has taken care of business against bad teams as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning percentage below .400 and they are 21-10 ATS (10-6 on the road) against teams with a losing record.

Denver has won and covered both of the last two meetings in this series here at home. Denver is coming off a loss to Houston but they have won eight of their last nine games overall and this team is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. They were down big against Houston but they came back and made it a game late in the fourth. We were very impressed by that comeback against one of the best teams in the NBA. The Clippers have been playing well but this team is overrated by the oddsmakers here in this situation.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento. The Wolves didn’t miss a beat after losing Jimmy Butler in their decimation of the Bulls last time out. They seem motivated, and should be able to beat a bad team here. This team is tanking and we doubt they will put forth the effort here that the Wolves will. Minnesota has put up lots of points lately on bad teams and we think they will be able to score enough to cover the spread with ease.

We just think that this line is too short. The Sixers are coming in on the second half of a back-to-back after winning vs. Orlando last night. Both teams will be playing their third in four nights but at least the Wizards had the night off last night. Both teams have been playing well, but the Sixers have had a pretty easy schedule, and it has been home-heavy. The home team has been strong in this series and we see that being the case again here on Sunday.

10 Unit Play. Take #661 Arizona State over Oregon State (8p.m., Saturday February 24 ESPN U) Arizona State has been one of the most disappointing teams during conference play this season after running the table in the nonconference portion of the season. They have a knack for getting games they need to avoid a complete free fall in the standing. This is one of those games against an undermanned Oregon State team coming off an overtime loss to Arizona on Thursday. ASU will not take them lightly since they beat OSU by just two points earlier this season in Tempe. The Beavers have not played well of late losing 7 of their last 9 games. Arizona State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Oregon State is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between ASU and OSU.