Sports Picks & Predictions

Orlando is playing very well to start off the season and we think that this line is too steep. The Magic are averaging a full seven points more on offense than the Pelicans and their defensive points per game allowed is very similar to that of New Orleans. We think that this will be a close game and we think that this is a live underdog tonight. New Orleans just came off a big win at home against Cleveland and they have a tough game vs. Minnesota coming up next so we think they may look past this Magic team tonight. This Orlando team looks like a real scrappy ballclub that will cover some big lines this season as expectations are low and they have been playing beyond them so far this season.

Charlotte has completely dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and ATS during the last five meetings. We think this line is short once again on Sunday. Both teams are coming in off a different side of a blowout as the Hornets lost big to Houston while the Magic upset the Spurs. That is why we are getting a nice line tonight but this is a whole new game and the Hornets are the better ballclub here. The Magic have had a nice start to the season for sure but we think that they will come back to reality tonight against a team they have not had much success against. Both teams have been playing pretty strong defense (Charlotte allowing less than 100 per game and both teams allowing around 42% shooting from the field). We think this will be a low-scoring game and the Hornets pull away in the fourth.

10 Unit Play. #254 Take New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears victory last week was fool’s gold and they are not a good team. Furthermore, their offense is terrible, and they will not be able to keep pace this week against New Orleans. The Saints did not even play well last week on the road and still won by 9 points against a team that already pounded the Bears. New Orleans defense is for real and when you pair that with QB Brees this is a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. The Saints have won four straight games via blowout and should have no problem winning this game against a rookie quarterback by double digits. QB Mitchell Trubisky has not done anything to make we believe he can win games on his own, as he is just completing 50% of his passes. If the Saints do not beat themselves, they will win this game going away. 

The Pistons have been inconsistent and the LA Clippers are one of the last undefeated teams left in the NBA, but we have to say that this line is inflated here on Saturday night. This is a sandwich game for the Clippers. They are coming off a big game at Portland where Blake Griffin sank a buzzer-beating three at the buzzer for a one-point win, and then they play their arch enemy, Golden State, on Monday. There is a very good chance that they will overlook this Eastern Conference opponent tonight. And even if they play their best, the Pistons are not a pushover. They are coming off a 20+-point win over Minnesota and will be coming into Staples Center with a lot of confidence. We might throw a buck or two on the moneyline as well, but we think these points are too many to pass up.

10 Unit Play. #206 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. This is just a brutal scheduling situation for Penn State. They are coming off an emotional high by beating Michigan last week. This is a game their assistant coaches said they wanted to win big in the worst way. Now they must go on the road into a hostile environment against a team that must win out in order to make the College Football Playoff. Despite losing last year to Penn State, Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 match-ups and Coach Urban Meyer is 24-10 ATS (1 push) with revenge for losing to a team in the last meeting. Since their loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State has won five straight games with their closest margin of victory 31 points. Some like to point out that all these opponents Ohio State has played have been terrible but who exactly has Penn State played this year? Michigan is way down and Penn State could have very easily lost at Iowa on September 23rd. The posted line tells me a great deal about this game, as it opened at 7 after Penn State looked dominating last Saturday. It seems to me that odds makers were begging people to put money on Penn State. We will not fall for that trap and take the better team playing at home. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in their last 4 games. 

10 Unit Play. #466 Take Green Bay Packers over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 pm FOX) QB Rodgers will not be playing in this game but I feel that the spread has been over adjusted. Green Bay would have been around this much of a favorite if they had their No. 1 quarterback. Having a week to prepare Brett Hundley and playing at home will benefit this team and I see this as a field goal game. I believe New Orleans is playing a bit over their heads especially on defense and I expect them to revert back to the norm in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. 

10 Unit Play. #268 Take Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) We have been very successful all season long picking teams that looked bad the previous week and we will again use that format. Arizona did not come to play last week at Philadelphia but they still have some talent on both sides of the football. Arizona blasted Tampa Bay last season by a score of 40-7 and this is a game they need in the worst way to keep their slim chances of a playoff spot alive. Arizona has yet to cover a spread this season but I feel the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in this game. Arizona should be favored since and homefield will give them a big edge in this game. 

10 Unit Play. #469 Take Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Raiders have never been a team that seems to handle prosperity well and become a consistent playoff team. They have looked terrible on offense the last two weeks and now must play a game without their QB Derek Carr. Baltimore looked terrible last week as well against Pittsburgh but should be able to move the football better against this Oakland defense. The Raiders are never a good play as a home favorite going 11-25 in their last 36 occurrences. This was a one-point game last year with Oakland winning and I just cannot see Oakland blowing them out with E.J. Manuel behind center. Baltimore cannot play as bad on offense as they did last week, can they? 

10 Unit Play. #402 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm SEC Network) Missouri is a terrible team and we will go against them for a second straight week (Won big with Auburn in their last game). The Tigers have been blown out three straight games and only Auburn is a ranked team that they faced. Getting blown out by Purdue and South Carolina is a head scratching moment for a coach that is in over his head. This will be Missouri’s first road game and they are TERRIBLE on both sides of the football. They have nothing to hang their head on as their offense has not been able to move the football after their first game against an FCS team. Kentucky did not look that impressive against Eastern Michigan but they did hold the Eagles to just 20 yards rushing. Kentucky has a very solid rush defense and if they can make the Tigers one dimensional that should be enough to win this game big. We said two weeks ago that playing Missouri is a get-well game for the Auburn offense and the same thing will be true on Saturday for Kentucky. Missouri is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Kentucky has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 SEC games.  

10 Unit Play. #276 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Oakland was exposed last week and I do not believe they will challenge to be the top team in the AFC. Now they are playing on the road for a second straight week against a divisional rival. Denver has won 8 of the last 10 games against Oakland. Denver has a bye on deck and the favorite has covered 8 of the last 9 games. Denver has a much better defense than does Oakland and playing in the Mile-High air should give QB Siemian some confidence. Denver is always a tough team to beat early in the season, especially at home and they get the job done against on Sunday afternoon. 

10 Unit Play. #180 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The SEC is a one team league and we have seen the other members go up and down and not be able to handle prosperity. Georgia is coming off a big win against Mississippi State and now must go on the road into hostile territory. The Volunteers have won two straight games against the Bulldogs despite trailing big in both of those games. Butch Jones is not a great coach but he has a habit of keeping the game close and he will accomplish this yet again on Saturday. The point spread has been over adjusted off Georgia’s game last week and we will take advantage of a favorable line. Georgia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory in their previous game. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #468 Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Jay Cutler is not David Carr and I just do not believe he will be able to pick apart the Jets like the Raiders did last week. Miami was lucky to get a win last week in San Diego needing a missed field goal as time was expiring. I usually believe that teams bounce back after getting embarrassed the week before in the NFL and expect that to be the case here. This is a tough travel situation for Miami, coming back from San Diego and they have to go to London next week. Miami is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games played during Week 3. 

10 Unit Play. #373 Auburn Tigers over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN U) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Missou opens the 2017 season with 4 straight home games and after Saturday they will have recorded just 1 victory. Missouri has a terrible defense and this is clearly a get-well game for Auburn. Missouri has given up 66 points the last two weeks against two bad offensive teams in Purdue and South Carolina. They fired their defensive coordinator last week and still looked terrible. Auburn looked better than their total score indicated last week moving the ball up and down the field but were down in by 5 turnovers. If they protect the ball this week they will win big. Missouri is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played in September. 

10 Unit Play. #284 Take Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:24 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off home wins but we will ride the Broncos again to a hot start this year like what they did last year. New York looked lost without OBJ last week and Dallas will have a much tougher time containing the Broncos this week. Denver is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Denver is 7-0 in their past 7 home games during the first two weeks of the season. Denver has the better defense and we saw last week home far ahead the defenses are compared to the offenses in most cases. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

10 Unit Play. #153 Take Wisconsin Badgers over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) BYU has one of the worst offenses in the entire country. If Ty Detmer (offensive coordinator) were not a living legend at BYU he would have been replaced after the LSU game. I still believe there is a chance that may happen after this game. BYU has just produced two touchdowns the last two weeks and they came in garbage time against Utah last Saturday night. Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance in which they dominated the yardage (564-248) and time of possession but were did not cover the spread because of two turnovers. They will need to clean that up in this game. BYU will hold their own on defense but they will eventually wear down because of their lack of offensive efficiency. There seems to be a rift between the offense and the defense (including coaches) and this will be the best defense BYU has faced this season (Wisconsin beat LSU last year). Wisconsin has covered the spread in six straight road games. BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Badgers win this game by twenty points and we collect in the process as well.  

10 Unit Play. #474 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) These teams seem to meet every year with the home team dominating this series (5-0 ATS last five games). The Hawks lost in Green Bay by 28 points last season and by 10 points in 2015. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 home openers. The Packers have the better offense and QB Rodgers has enough weapons to attack this strong Hawks defense in a variety of ways. Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of September. 

10 Unit Play. #364 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) It is not often a road team is favored in a true SEC home game but it is well warranted in this situation. TCU returns a ton of experience from last year and they also have revenge on their minds after blowing a late lead to Arkansas last year in Fort Worth. TCU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road openers winning those 9 games by an average of 18 points per game. Coach Gary Patterson is too good of a coach to be down for long and I expect TCU to come close to recording 10+ wins this season. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 61% of the early money is coming in on Arkansas yet the line keeps going up. That tells me the smart money is backing the road team. 

10 Unit Play. #178 Take North Carolina Tar Heels over Cal Golden Bears (Saturday 12:20 pm ACCN) Always like going against west coast teams playing a 12 pm eastern time start on the east coast. Cal has a new coach and I expect them to struggle on both sides of the football against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 9-1 in their home openers over the last 10 years winning by an average margin of 35 points per game. The Bears got blown out in the last four losses in 2016 and they must replace all their skill position players from 2016. The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games when they are an underdog. UNC has covered the spread in 4 straight nonconference games. 

10 Unit Play. #259 Take New York Jets over New York Giants (Saturday 7 pm) NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR. This game just means more for the Jets. Many people believe that they are tanking this season and if they get off to a bad start they will struggle to stay relevant for the 16-week regular season. The Giants are in panic mode at the present time suffering key injuries last week against Cleveland at the wide receiver position. They cannot afford anymore injuries to key personal over the next two weeks and thus I expect them to play this game cautiously. The Jets have been awful in their first two preseason games totaling just 13 points and expect them to play their starters a little longer in order to gain some confidence. Take the points and hope the Jets do not give the game away on offense with turnovers. If they do not I like our chances to cover this spread. Big underdogs have performed well most of the preseason and that trend continues tonight in the Subway Series. 

We have been on Golden State for all three games of these NBA Finals but the odds have finally risen to where the Cavs have some betting value. They had Game 3 all but won but you have to be up by 10+ with even a minute left against this team as they can get hot in a hurry and the Cavs missed some key shots that sunk them. Game 3 is so crucial in a 7-game series and the Warriors got the win and now this series is all but over. We think they may take their foot off the gas just a bit tonight and the Cavs are a prideful team and we expect to see the best game from them and we think that this will be another close game just like Game 3 and we could see the Cavs winning this one but think it could go either way. Golden State had all the betting value through three games but now the line indicates the Cavs have value in our opinion. We have released a totals play for every game in this series but had to stay away tonight as the number has risen just too much and we just can’t play the under with the way the Warriors offense has been dominating. However, we do think that the Cavs might make a big defensive stand here and even the Warriors have a bad game offensively where they have cold spells from the field. With the series basically wrapped up for all intents and purposes maybe the Warriors aren’t completely in the zone and there is always that thought in the back of their minds that they could go home and win it in front of the home fans in Game 5.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and we had a great feeling that they would come out strong to start the series. We don’t see them letting up here in Game 2 and we think that this series is much more of a mismatch as it might seem to most. Cleveland is a very good team that plays in a weak conference but Golden State is a great team that plays in one of the tougher conferences in the history of the league in the current Western Conference. Many people like to use the zig zag theory when it comes to handicapping the NBA Finals and we know Cleveland will be a popular bet on Sunday but we think that Cleveland was very lucky to win last year and they ran into a Warriors team that had simply run out of gas. We thought the bookies may have posted a Game 2 line to make the Warriors more attractive to bettors looking to play the zig zag but they made the line even higher for Golden State but we don’t think it will matter as we think this one will be a double-digit winner. We also like the pace that these teams played at on Thursday and we think the rust is off now and that the scoring will be up from Game 1.

We think these are some very weak numbers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. We think Golden State is much better than a favorite of this number as they have revenge for losing last year and also lots of time off to prepare. Yes, this team lost this series last season but they did things all wrong in the regular season by chasing the season wins record and they just ran out of gas with a big advantage in the Finals and let the Cavs come back and win it. They didn’t make the same mistake this season. They did things right and they took it easy more in the regular season and some people were even wondering if this team was as good as last season. They are every bit as good and even better. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs but the east was very weak and they didn’t face the same type of competition as Golden State did. But the Warriors have been in Championship Mode since the stretch run of the regular season and this team is playing as good as they ever have right now. This is one of the best teams in NBA history and Cleveland doesn’t fall into that category as far as we are concerned. They will play with a chip on their collective shoulders in this series and that is when this team is the most dangerous. We think both teams will get their points here but we don’t think the Cavs will be able to keep up for four quarters and we think there’s a great chance that this one winds up in the 230s or above.

We had the Cavs in Game 4 and they probably would have covered if there had been one more minute in the game. They could have went for a shot to push or cover but they just dribbled the shot clock out. But we have a more manageable line here for Game 5 and we aren’t worried about the lack of home-court advantage because the Cavs won in blowouts in both games in Boston. The Cavs know that the Warriors are resting right now and they don’t want to leave anything to chance here to let Boston come back like they did in Game 3 and we think that this one will be all Cleveland for four quarters. Boston is still a piece or two away from really being a contender for the NBA Championship and the Cavs have that type of team right now and we are confident this will be a double-digit blowout.

The Cavs got a double-whammy of urgency after both losing Game 3 at home to Boston and also with the Warriors finishing their series against San Antonio in a sweep. Now Golden State is resting until this series is over and the NBA Finals start so it’s urgent for the Cavs to finish this one off and put the Celtics to bed. We don’t like laying this many points typically but we think the Cavs are the only way to go here. Boston had their moment of glory in Game 3 but we think this one will be all Cleveland from here on out. The Cavs were up by as many as 21 in Game 3 but they took their foot off the gas and the Celtics played just about the best they can with the current roster and won the game on a buzzer-beater. We see Cleveland playing more of a complete game here and if they are as motivated as we think they will be tonight they should have no problem covering this large number.

We had the Celtics in the east in Game 3 and they won straight up as massive underdogs and now we think that this game will follow a similar script here in the west. Golden State and Cleveland seem very competitive between each other already and we are not even to the NBA Finals. Once one team reaches an achievement then the other team tries to outdo them. And now that the Cavs lost Game 3 we think the Warriors might let up a little bit here. This is the most value-packed line for the Spurs all series and we think they are getting too many points. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful here but the Celtics showed that a proud team can rise up without its best player and we think the Spurs will play with a lot of pride here tonight. We were on the Warriors in every game this series but we think the value has switched over to the other side. The crowd will be crazy here and we have a feeling Popovich has something up his sleeve tonight to get the best out of his team. Not sure the Spurs can win this one straight out as the Warriors are just too good, but we do think the Spurs can keep this one within double digits and this team just won’t roll over tonight.

We liked the opening line in this game and we expected Thomas to be out and now that he has been ruled out for the playoffs this number has jumped even higher and we just think this is a bit of a ridiculous number. We love to back a team that was humiliated in their last game and we think the Celtics will play with a lot of pride tonight. This team has never been about one guy. This squad has played some of the best team basketball in the NBA this season and this is a prideful bunch and we think that they will go all out on the defensive end tonight and keep this game close. We think the Cavs will settle down a bit and they won’t play with the same hunger that they did last time out. The Celtics had one of the worst games in franchise history last game and we just think they will really step up tonight and the Cavs will not get as many easy baskets as they have for the first couple games of the series. When we look at his line we have to say this is not the Phoenix Suns this is the Boston Celtics and they are getting way too many points tonight. This one could be a blowout and we can still cover.

We don’t think the extra days off or change in venue are going to help the Spurs too much in this Game 3 tonight. Of course the big story here is that Kawhi Leonard is questionable. We don’t think it will make a difference if he plays or not in this one. This is an injury that would probably keep him out significantly in the regular season so if they throw him in there it might so more harm than good, especially since the Warriors will play at a very high pace and the Spurs rely on Leonard for a lot of their defensive efforts. Playing on a bum ankle will probably hurt the team more than help on the defensive end. If he doesn’t play then their offense is really in trouble as they have to keep up with the best offense in the game. The NBA’s two best teams seem on a collision course for the NBA Finals and there is nothing that is going to stand in their way. Both teams want to end these series early in order to get the most rest possible before the NBA Finals. Golden State saw what Cleveland did to Boston last night and they will now want to one-up the Cavs. These teams really want to pound their opponents and they won’t let up at the end of the game. We really thought that this line should be closer to 9 and we would still like the Warriors at that number and we think they will win by double digits again. The Spurs would be outmatched even at full strength but with two starters likely out (Tony Parker and Leonard) the Spurs are at even more of a disadvantage and they really look like they don’t believe they have any chance in this series. And they are right.

This is what we took for Game 1 but we think both of these plays will cash tonight just like they did for the first game in this ECF matchup. Boston got off to a real slow start in Game 1 and shot terribly from the floor. That should improve tonight and we think they will play more of a complete game so we won’t have to sweat out this total until the end. Even with Boston unable to make many shots in the first half of Game 1 this one still got over the posted total. It’s doubtful to think that they will go that cold again. And we just don’t think that the Celtics can match the Cavs on the court and Cleveland can easily score 120+ in this game. They have been simply dominant in this playoffs and we think they want to sweep this series really bad and they have a chance with a win tonight. Boston let the Wizards hang around too long and now they are at a severe disadvantage in this series after playing in Game 7 while the Cavs had plenty of time to rest.

Boston has averaged 125 points in their three home games in this series and we think they will play well on offense tonight after a lousy effort on that front in Game 6. You get the feeling that Washington gave everything they had in Game 6 to win it at the end, and the Celtics were robbed of an extra second on the clock that could have given them more time for the game-winning shot at the end of the game. We always said we thought that this series would go to Game 7 and now we are here. But we think that the Celtics will win this one big. They have covered in all three home games in this series and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall. This has been a good series but the better team will advance tonight.

With five days off we like the Warriors here to win in a blowout. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is likely to play here but we doubt he is close to 100% and San Antonio is already down a starter in Tony Parker. They have had a much tougher road than the Warriors in these playoffs and just a couple days off coming into this game. The Warriors did everything right this regular season as for not exerting themselves too much while San Antonio played harder in the regular season than we normally see them (and maybe that is why they have had injury issues in the postseason). We like to play the Warriors when they are motivated and we think that motivation kicks into high gear here now that they have a more formidable opponent. But we think Golden State is on a whole other level above the Spurs and we think they flex their muscle here on Sunday.

All five games in this series have been decided by 10 points or more and we think Washington will win this one tonight so we don’t mind laying the number here on Friday. Not only has the home team covered every game in this series but that pattern has been intact in the last nine meetings between these clubs. With so many short series this playoff season we think there will be at least one Game 7 in this round and this one looks like it could be the one. The refs might give the home team some extra love in order for that to happen. The Wizards won their two home games in this series by an average of 23 points and we think they can play that way again here and send this one back to Boston for a deciding Game 7.

The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled.

In our mind Washington has covered three games in this series even though they only covered two. We had them in Game 2 and they should have won and covered but we suffered a bad beat in OT. But they have clearly been undervalued in this series and we think they have grabbed all the momentum in this series with two massive blowouts in Games 3 and 4. We don’t think this one will be a blowout, however, and we expect a close game. But the road team definitely has a chance to win this one straight out. We called a close game in San Antonio last night in Game 5 over in the west after all the games had been blowouts and we think this Game 5 will go down in a similar fashion and we just have to take the points here with the team that is in better form in a series that we have thought was pretty even all along.

Every game in this series has been a blowout but we think we are in store for a close game tonight. All four regular-season matchups were decided by four points or less. We have always liked the Rockets in this series and now that this one is a three-game series we think Houston will take one of these road games. It seems they have regained their shooting touch in Game 4 and we expect it to continue here. The loss of Nene hurts this team but we expect his teammates to rise up in his absence and this seems like a team that can handle adversity well. In a game we expect to be close we have to take the points here and we think Houston is getting a couple too many.

We were on the other side in Game 3 and the Warriors won by 11 even though Utah played well most of the game. But here for Game 4 we are getting probably the best line for Utah in the entire series as they are now getting a big number at home where they try to avoid the sweep in Game 4. The Jazz actually led Game 3 for quite a bit of time and had a nine-point lead at one point. While Toronto basically threw in the towel in their Game 4 and rolled over we think Utah will play with a lot more pride here and they don’t have a lot of pressure in their Game 4 as opposed to Toronto because nobody thought they would get this far anyways. We think they will be loose and will go out there and play their game and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them score a close win here to give the home crowd one last gift before the season ends. We think this will be a close game either way.

We had the Rockets big Game 3 and it was a real head-scratcher of a game. Neither team played well but Houston was just awful. They shoot incredibly poorly. Some of that was the Spurs defense but mostly they were just off. But we still think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series, and they are pretty much in a must-win situation here in Game 4. Harden and the Rockets can’t go too long with this cold shooting and we expect things to turn around in Game 4. We expected Houston to win one of these home games in a blowout and since it didn’t happen in Game 3 we think there is a great chance that Game 4 is the one.

We think there’s a great chance that this one goes to seven games. And we love the way the Wizards have played the last two games. We think they should be up 2-1 here. But they blew Game 2 in OT. But we think these teams are pretty even and we expect the Wizards to take care of business at home in Game 4. After the huge Game 3 win by Washington we handicapped this game at 6.5 with a strong lean to the home team at that line so we love that we are getting a short line here for Sunday. We expect the Wizards to win by 7+ points and set the stage for a three-game series for the right to proceed to the ECF.

Both Games 1 and 2 were blowouts and we think this one has a good chance to go that way as well. We think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series. Everyone talks about the Clippers failures in the playoff but the Spurs have fallen on their faces in the postseason the last two years with the current core, losing to these same Clippers a couple seasons ago and falling in the second round to the Thunder last season. They just haven’t been as good in the postseason as they have in the regular season and we see Houston taking this one. Yes, Tony Parker is out for the Spurs. He will be out for the rest of the playoffs. That kind of hurts us with this play as I think the casuals put too much stock in Parker’s current abilities and as a result has moved this line from the opening number of 4. But we don’t think the points will matter here. Houston is just a very underrated team. We think that they have a better chance against the Warriors in the conference finals than the Spurs would. And after a lousy Game 2 we think they will bounce back here in Game 3. James Harden had a real bad game in Game 2. He scored only 13 and was 3-for-17. That’s not going to happen again at home and those numbers will probably even out here in Game 3, meaning we expect a big night from the Houston star. In Game 2 Houston went down by 10 at the half and they shot poorly in the second half. And the Spurs shot well above their season average from the floor. Houston will play better defense here at home and the Spurs won’t play as well offensively but we expect a big bounce back from the Rockets offense here. We feel this is a very public line and from what we saw in Game 1 we think the Rockets can win this one by 7+ in this crucial Game 3 matchup.

The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall.

Game 1 was the first Cleveland blowout in this series since last season. Toronto won big in one regular-season meeting but all the others were Cleveland wins by no more than four points. We just don’t see the Cavs winning big in both home games here to start the series and we think the Raptors are a live dog tonight. Toronto has been good after a loss lately and they are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss. That means that this team is good at bouncing back lately, and we think that will be the case tonight. Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams this season and they are constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers. We certainly think that is the case tonight as normally the team that loses Game 1 is tabbed to bounce back and play better in Game 2 but we are getting an even better line here.

Houston has a real chance to win this playoff series. There are three real legit teams in the west this year and these are two of them. We think the Rockets are getting a very nice number here and we think that this series will be competitive. The Spurs have had some struggles in the playoffs in recent years and their postseason results don’t really match their regular-season successes. They had a tougher time with Memphis than they should have in the first round and now they face a much better squad. The Spurs won three of four meetings in the regular season but all the games were close and we don’t think that this one is very different. And most of the pressure seems like it’s on the Spurs here as no one is talking about Houston much and this line is off as well as we thought 3.5 would be more appropriate and we would lean to the Rockets at that number as well.

Utah put up quite a fight in this series but now they are in a real bad position after blowing it in Game 6 at home. That was a pretty easy win for the Clippers and we think the momentum will carry over here into this Game 7. The Clippers, as most NBA teams, are much better at home and they have had some success here in Game 7s (remember that epic game against San Antonio?). The Clippers aren’t as good without Blake Griffin but Jamal Crawford started to heat up in Game 6 and J.J. Redick should contribute here as well. The Jazz have a nice team and a solid defense but now that home-court advantage is back in the Clippers hands we think they will take advantage and will be the lucky team to likely get swept by the Warriors. LA is the better team even without Blake and Chris Paul really seems like he is on a mission to win this one and having the best player on the court normally makes a big difference in these types of Game 7 situations.

We like the Celtics to close this thing out tonight. The road team has mostly been the bet so far in this series. And we think that trend will continue tonight. The Celtics had some off-court distractions that held them back in Games 1 and 2 but they have played up to expectations since and we think they are being underrated by the oddsmakers here tonight. We had this line handicapped at Boston -6 so we think there is some nice value on the road team laying this small number.

Milwaukee is going to be good in a year or two. Potentially really good if they can stay healthy and add a piece or two. But they have lost the momentum in this series and we think this one ends tonight. Toronto’s offense has really come on and the Bucks really seem to have lost their defensive edge as they gave up 118 in the last game, a blowout loss in Toronto. The two nights off here really benefits the better team, and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee. We really thought that Toronto should be at least -2 here and we expect them to win tonight. They have been playing more like a team and have more scoring options and the further we have gotten into this series it’s evident that the Bucks are a one-man show.

We were surprised that the Wizards played so poorly in Atlanta but now that they are back home we expect them to reestablish their dominance in this series. The home team has dominated this series both ATS and SU, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Remember, although the Wizards played better on the road down the stretch they are only 19-24 at home but an almost unbeatable 32-11 at home this season. We think they come out fired up in this one and we think that this could be a double-digit win tonight. Washington was really good ATS this season at home and we think their home-court advantage will be the difference as they put Atlanta on the brink of elimination tonight.

We think the OKC and Memphis lines could have been switched as the Rockets are pulling away in their series while the Grizzlies have captured momentum and are very much in this series. The bottom line here is that this is just too many points, especially since this total is in the high 180s; the lower the score the more valuable the points are for the underdog. Yes, San Antonio won by double-digit blowouts in their first two games. But in an NBA Playoff series teams become to know each other real well and although the Spurs will likely win this one we don’t think the Grizzlies will let this one become out of hand. Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence right now. And the Spurs have struggled in the playoffs the last couple years and maybe this team is just built more for regular season success than the playoffs. Regardless, we think this will be another close game.

We always thought that the Wizards would win one game in Atlanta and it didn’t happen in Game 3 so we think it’s very likely to happen in Game 4, and as a result we had the Wizards as a whooping 4-point favorite in this one, meaning there is some amazing value here with the underdog. Washington got off to a slow start this season but they have been one of the best teams in the second half of the season and this team seems built to win this series to us. They lost their season opening game to the Hawks but they won all of the most recent three regular-season meetings and this team is just much better than the Hawks. And now the pressure is dialed up as they don’t want the Hawks to win this one and even the series up going back to DC for Game 5. They have some tougher opponents on the horizon and need to finish this one off ASAP, so getting the win here and putting the Hawks on the brink of elimination heading home for Game 5 is a scenario that they want and need to happen. Washington didn’t show a lot of urgency in Game 3 but they will show it tonight and we expect to see a completely different outcome than we saw there. And getting this many points means in case this is a close game and the Wiz lose a close one that we are protected a bit by the points. But we don’t think we will need them tonight as the Wizards should win straight up.

Wasn’t ever too worried for Boston after they started 0-2 in this series with two home losses. They had some major off-court distractions that really affected the team. But they were uber-focused in Game 3 and we expect them to even the series up here on Sunday. Of course underdog teams can catch lightning in a bottle at any time but we just think that this Bulls team stinks and they barely made the playoffs. Boston is maybe one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory but they are still a much better team and the No. 8’s have such a torrid history in this matchup for a reason. Boston recaptured the momentum in this series and with one win today they reclaim home-court advantage in a three-game series and they will again be a heavy favorite to win this. We wouldn’t be surprised if this one was another blowout like Game 3.

The Thunder got a win last time out to save their chances for the series but they played about the best game they could at home in Game 3 and still won by only two points. We think it’s very telling that the line has shrunk from the Game 3 line and we think the Rockets win this game to put OKC on the brink of elimination. When both are playing their best Harden and Westbrook cancel each other out but the rest of the Houston team is much better than the roleplayers from OKC, and we had this game handicapped at Houston -3 so we think there is some really nice value here. Houston really struggled from three-point land in Game 3 and the Thunder shot well above average from three-point land and the floor in general. And for that disparity in shooting for the home team to win by only two tells us a lot. We think these numbers equal out and we think that there’s a great chance Houston wins this by 5+.

When we saw this line we had to rub our eyes as we thought that the Wizards should be favored here. Washington has made it look easy in winning and covering the first two games of this series, and we don’t think they have played their best game yet, either. We think they have a great chance for the sweep here against an overrated Hawks team. They have now covered in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and we think the two nights off really plays to the advantage of the better team here. The Wizards got better on the road as the season went on and we think they have the upper hand in this matchup as they know they need to finish Atlanta off early and a win here means the series is all but over. They scored 109 and 114 in Games 1 and 2 and we think they can get near 115 again. The bookies adjusted this totals number down but we think they should have gone the other way.

We were on the Wizards Game 1 for our free pick and we like them here for Game 2 as well. We think this could be a really similar game as Game 1 but that maybe the Wizards cover by a couple more points as they have an even better offensive night. They missed a bunch of threes in that game and shot a real low percentage but that should probably turn around tonight and there is a great chance that they can put up even more than the 114 they scored on Sunday. They got off to a real slow start in the first half before playing really well in the second. We just think that Atlanta is outmatched here. They should get enough points to get this one over the total by virtue of the pace here, but we don’t see them being able to keep pace with Washington on the scoreboard.

The Jazz stole Game 1 but lost Rudy Gobert in the process. While that is a considerable loss, we think the oddsmakers have posted too big a number here. The Clippers just have a way of blowing it in the playoffs and after losing Game 1 at home now the pressure is really on this team – and this is a team that probably is more under the pressure cooker than any team in the playoffs because they have fallen well below expectations way too often in the postseason. And this team has shown that they don’t handle adversity well. We think they will likely get the win here but as both teams have been playing very good defense, we expect another low-scoring affair and that makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. We thought this line would be 7 at most after the Game 1 result so we think there is really some nice value tonight.

To us this looks like the ugliest series in the first round of the playoffs. The bottom of the west was down this year and Portland barely made it in over the last few games because of a late-season surge. The Warriors had some issues throughout the season but now they are back in championship form and this team did everything right in the regular season this year as opposed to last season when they spent so much energy on setting regular-season records only to struggle more than expected in the playoffs. We feel the different approach will pay off here and the Warriors look primed for a blowout. Yes, this line is large but when Golden State is feeling it they can cover any line, and the Blazers don’t play well enough on defense to slow them down and their offense won’t be able to do enough to match that of the Warriors.

At the start of the season we said the Clippers would get out to a hot start as the pressure was on to perform better this year than they had in the past. And that is just what they did. They suffered some injuries throughout the season and the regular season didn’t turn out just as expected but they closed the season strong by winning their last seven games. But now is when the real test starts for this team. They have flamed out in the playoffs every year, and last season they looked like they would cruise against Portland and then Paul and Griffin were injured. Now this might be the last stand for this team. And just like they wanted a strong start to the regular season we think it’s of the utmost importance for this team to have a strong start to the postseason. Utah has a fine team but in the playoffs you need some star power. The Jazz rely on their stingy defense for success but the Clippers have been playing as well as anyone on the defensive end down the stretch but they have an offense that should be able to succeed here in this series and especially at home in Game 1. They have covered in five of the last six meetings between these teams and we think they will want to make a statement here in Game 1 while the public’s confidence is not too high with this team and therefore this line was released too short.

The Lakers are just 4-7 ATS this season as a favorite, and we think there is a great chance the Pelicans win this one straight up tonight. The two big stars for the Pelicans will be out tonight but this line is an overreaction because the Pelicans are probably still better than the Lakers even without Davis and Cousins. New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings in LA, and there aren’t many trends in the NBA stronger than that. LA plays at Golden State tomorrow night in their season finale and we think they will be more focused on that game where if they play well it will be a nice finale for the season for them. New Orleans has lost four straight but this is their last best chance for a win as they finish the season at Portland tomorrow.

The Spurs were embarrassed by the Clippers last time out (at home no less) and after the game Coach Gregg Popovich said that there will be no rested players down the stretch. This team has flamed out in the playoffs the last couple seasons so we think they really try to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Even though the Spurs are locked into the No. 2 seed, you sense more urgency here at the end of the season than in the past for this team. With Denver’s loss on Sunday the Blazers are locked into the No. 8 seed. We think they will start focusing on the Warriors now and that makes the rest of the regular season meaningless to them.

We had the Wolves the last time these teams played in LA and that was one of the Lakers better games they have played in awhile and they won it in OT. Just don’t think that they will be able to put forth that kind of effort twice against the same team. This Lakers team doesn’t have much interest in winning out in the stretch run of the regular season. In fact, it benefits them to lose because of their tenuous hold on their upcoming draft pick, which would head to Philly if it’s outside the Top 3. Losing these last three games would give them a better chance to keep their pick, and that’s only if the Suns go on a winning streak to end the season. The Wolves are a team that wants to finish the season on a high note. Their recent games have included two against Portland and also Utah and Golden State on the road. They finish with OKC and Houston, so this is their last best chance for a big blowout road win.

The Clippers have won and covered in two of the last three meetings. They match up well against the Spurs and LA will have all the motivation tonight. They are one game behind the Jazz for home-court advantage in their probable first-round matchup of the playoffs. Utah has a tough one tonight at Portland so LA with a win here could gain some serious ground. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and this team does not care much about the rest of the regular season as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the West. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back in their last five. We think LA goes all out for the win here and they have played well against the Spurs. They are averaging 121 PPG in their last four and are playing very well right now.

These teams played three nights ago and the Blazers lost by one. They still covered, however, and they have now covered in six of their last seven games. We think this one will go the other way in Portland where the Blazers are a solid home team and the Wolves have proven to be very inconsistent on the road. Portland is currently holding down the No. 8 playoff spot and this team must continue to win if they are to make the postseason. They have been playing really well lately and we expect a big game tonight against a Timberwolves team that is just playing for pride. Portland has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series!

We just don’t have a lot of faith in Cleveland this season and we think they are susceptible to losing in the playoffs this year. This game might go a long way to deciding that outcome as these teams are tied atop the EC playoff heap, and the winner of this one has a good chance to claim the top seed. Boston comes into this one having had two nights off while the Cavs are on a back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. Cleveland has covered in only one of the past five meetings in this series. The Cavs don’t seem to have the hunger they had last year and that fire can dim after winning a championship. The Celtics seem to have it this season, and this team is a serious threat in the East. Boston is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 4.5 points, and we think they take care of business for a comfortable win tonight.

The Warriors are back to playing Golden State basketball and are the hottest team in the NBA right now. However, as this team has success the numbers rise for their games, and this is a very inflated number in our opinion. The Timberwolves have covered in eight of the last nine meetings. This team has some talent although they have been inconsistent. But they always seem to play well in this matchup and we think tonight will be the same. Minnesota actually has two wins in the last four meetings! Golden State is 19-28 ATS when laying double digit points this season and we think this is another overinflated line tonight.

Brooklyn has been one of the best bets in the NBA lately and while bettor confidence is down on this team they have been playing very hard down the stretch. They have now covered in 12 of their last 16 games. And we think they are majorly underrated here. The Sixers have been one of the best ATS teams all season but they have slid back a bit and have covered only three of their last seven games (despite some generous lines). The Nets are 10-4 ATS this season on the road against a sub-.500 team and they are the squad that is playing with a lot of pride right now as the Sixers look more ready for the season to be over as their play has trailed off big time lately. Brooklyn has extra motivation here as well since the Sixers have won all three meetings this year and the Nets won’t want to be swept. Brooklyn also has a chance here for a rare three-game winning streak and this looks like a squad that will finish the season with some momentum. We also think this total is way too high as the Nets have been playing some pretty strong defense lately and we don’t see this as a shootout.

The Wizards were the hottest ticket in town for awhile but this team has trailed off as well and they have covered only three of their last 10 games. They are coming into this one off three straight losses and with non-covers in all three of those games. The Hornets have been a head-scratcher all season but this squad is finally playing to their potential and they have now covered in seven of their last nine. They are coming off a very impressive recent stretch that saw them with three straight, including road wins at OKC and Toronto. In fact, this team has three straight wins on the road. We think the Hornets have a great chance for the straight up win here.

The Hornets have been back and forth most of the season but they are playing well right now and they have been underrated by the oddsmakers and have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. OKC has covered only two of their last six games. The Hornets won the last meeting in this series by double digits back in January. The Hornets are two games out of the playoff picture in the east and this is basically a must-win game for them today. There is not the same urgency coming from the home side tonight as they are pretty much locked into the No. 6 in the west. We think this will be a very close game and have to take the points here.

10 Unit Play. #813 Take Oregon over North Carolina (8:49 pm CBS) The Ducks have the most impressive win of the NCAA Tournament thus far beating Kansas in Kansas City last time out. This team has great guard play and they have weathered the loss of Chris Boucher brilliantly. North Carolina has their own injuries with Joel Berry having issues with both of his ankles and he is the one player the Tar Heels cannot do without. He will play but will play but he will not be 100%. Guard play dominates in the NCAA Tournament and if the Ducks are making shots from the arc they will win this game straight-up. We have seen that the ACC was vastly overrated this year and Oregon will come ready to play in a city they are very familiar with. North Carolina is just 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games as a small favorite of 6.5 points or less. Oregon is 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog. 

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total. The Hawks have averaged 97 points in their last two games, and those were against the Sixers and Suns, two teams that aren’t in the conversation among the best defensive clubs in the NBA. They will face a much tougher test tonight. They have now gone under in eight straight games, and the bookies are still posting too high lines for this team. The Bulls have been playing very good defense lately and we think they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here, covering ATS and keeping this one under the posted number. The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago and 16-7 in the last 23 meetings overall.

The Clippers have a small margin of error for the rest of the regular season if they want to overtake Utah for the No. 4 seed and play their first-round series with home-court advantage. They are on a back-to-back but we think they will play well here. The Suns have stunk all season but they are even worse now and not only is Devin Booker questionable tonight but this team is far from the one that started the season as most of the key players are either injured or shut down for the season. LA goes for the season sweep here and all three wins were by double digits. LA’s defense should get the job done here and their offense should thrive against a team that plays poor defense.

10 Unit Play. #712 Take TCU over Georgia Tech (8 pm ESPN) Just believe TCU is the better all-around team. Georgia Tech had some moments early in ACC play but they fell apart down the stretch losing five of their last seven games. They have had a fortunate draw not having to travel to Indiana in the opening game of the NIT and they have also played a 7 and a 8 seed to get to the finals. TCU started off slow on Tuesday but really flexed their muscles in the second half to beat UCF big. TCU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. Georgia Tech is 5-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 19 games played on Thursday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports 

The Clippers blew a late lead last time out against the Kings and had a head-scratching loss at home. That ups the urgency for this game since the Clippers are still behind the Jazz for the coveted No. 4 spot in the playoff seedings and at least one series at home. This Wizards defense has been atrocious lately and they have given up 110+ a bunch lately. The Clippers have at least been playing strong defense their last few games and after an off offensive game last time out we are confident that they will have a strong game on offense against this Wizards team that hasn’t been protecting the basket. Even though the Wizards played in this building last night, this is still a back-to-back and we think it’s a bad spot for the visiting team.

Looks like the Wolves have thrown in the towel on the season as this team is barely competitive right now and they have lost six straight games both SU and ATS despite some very favorable lines. This line is more than fair for the home team. Indiana is really good at home at 26-11 and they will face an opponent tonight that has won only 10 all season on the road. Why would the Wolves play better than they have lately in this one, against an out-of-conference opponent? Doesn’t seem likely. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and they have covered in only 2 of the last 7 games in Indiana. The Pacers have been inconsistent lately but this looks like a game that they can win pretty comfortably.

The Thunder are just not a good road team at 14-21 on the season and we think that the wrong team is favored tonight. Dallas hasn’t been playing all that great but they have had an incredibly hard schedule so far on this homestand with games against the Warriors, Clippers and Raptors. They got only one win there (against LA), but they have their most winnable game on this homestand tonight in our opinion. Dallas is 3.5 games out of the No. 8 playoff spot in the west (thanks mostly to a lousy start to the season), and they have to win this one big time if they have any hopes of the postseason. We think they will be hungry tonight and win against an overrated OKC squad.

Golden State hasn’t been a good bet this season but they are rounding into form lately and they have covered four of their last five. They failed to cover last time out against Sacramento but won by 14 as an 18-point favorite. They didn’t have a lot of motivation in that game but still played well and won in a blowout. But they have motivation tonight as the Grizzlies are a traditional rival and they have beat the Warriors twice this season. But Golden State won the last meeting by 15 – in Memphis no less – and we think they give their best shot to split the season series tonight. Memphis has won four of their last six but they also have five double-digit blowout losses in their last five games and this team has not been playing hard in losses. Marc Gasol is also questionable for this game and the Grizzlies will need all the help they can get to stay competitive in this game.

This is a game we have had circled for awhile since the Jazz beat the Clippers in Utah last time out. That was a rare win for the Jazz who got their first win and cover in five meetings in this series. The Clippers have had their fair share of problems throughout the season and they have dealt with extended injury absences for two of their big 3. But this is such a crucial game and we think the better team takes control of this and dominates in this matchup. LA has been playing pretty well lately. They lost last time out at a Mavs team that is playing much better down the stretch, but they had won the last three before that. We took Dallas on Thursday and said the Clippers were probably looking ahead to this one, and we think that was the case as they lost in the final seconds. LA is a game and a half back of the Jazz for the No. 4 seed and we think they do what it takes to win this big and get a better chance at home-court advantage in the first round when these teams likely meet in the playoffs.

The Wolves won by 26 the last time these teams met up, and we think we could see another blowout here tonight. Minnesota has lost and failed to cover in four straight, but that was against a pretty tough schedule. Tonight provides the perfect opportunity for them against a “get right” opponent. The Lakers don’t have a lot of interest in winning right now. They need to keep losing in order to give them the best chance to keep their draft pick in the upcoming loaded draft. This is also pretty much a must-win game for Minnesota and we expect to see their best against an inferior opponent.

10 Unit Play. #871 Take Wisconsin over Florida (Friday 9:55 pm TBS) SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR. Florida has fool’s gold confidence at the moment. Their players and coaches believe they put forth a coaching masterpiece on Saturday against Virginia. But that was because Virginia is just inept on offense, had no inside presence, and could not make wide open jump shots. Wisconsin can do all three of those things and when you put experience with it this team will be hard to stop by anyone left in the East Region. Wisconsin just took down the No. 1 team in the country and the Wildcats plays much more in your face defense than do the Gators. Florida will not make Wisconsin uncomfortable on offense and I just do not believe Florida will be able to make enough jump shots to win this game. Wisconsin has players that are used to playing in big game and they want to finish the job this year after losing to Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 last year. The Gators also had a huge edge in playing the first two games in Orlando but that will not be the case on Friday. Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 NCAA Tournament Games as an underdog. Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win in their previous game. 

The Grizzlies match up well here and they have taken three of the last four meetings ATS. Also, five of the last seven meetings have gone under the posted total and these teams played last week and the Grizzlies won straight up and since these teams just played we expect to see more defense here because of the familiarity and we think this will be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. You don’t get the sense that the Spurs are a team that would be too focused on revenge because they just go about their business with workman-like precision. We think the Griz want this one more. Not sure if they get the win but we see strong defense on both sides and a close game overall.

The Bucks came off a tough road game last night as they beat Portland but this team hasn’t been very good in back-to-backs this season and they are just 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. We just think this is a bad spot for the Bucks as they come in not only on a back-to-back but this is the sixth and last game of their long road trip. They have won three of their last four and should be pretty happy with the trip and ready to head back home, where they play four of their next six. We don’t think that they will be giving their all in this game – even if they had the energy to do so. The Bucks aren’t a good road team and have one more win than the Kings have at home. We think that this will be a very close game and the Kings could pull off the upset.

We had Memphis as a slight favorite in this game so there is great line value tonight for our Top Play for Tuesday. The Grizzlies have covered in six of the last eight meetings between these clubs. They have won seven of those games, so they obviously match up well in this series. Memphis is playing great ball right now and they have won and covered in four straight, including a win over San Antonio last time out. This team has had two nights off after that game and will be the more well rested team here tonight. The Pelicans have been playing some good games lately, too, but overall Memphis is the much better team here and we have them winning this game straight up.

The Warriors have covered in two straight games but they are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. They beat the Bucks and Magic big at home to get back on track but we just don’t think this team is in top form right now and they are in for an incredibly tough matchup tonight in OKC. Durant being out of the lineup takes away a lot of the intrigue from this matchup but the Warriors are still his team and the crowd and the home team will be more into this one than an average game. We think that OKC has a very good chance to win this one tonight. We had them as a slight favorite in this one and we think this looks like another clearly inflated line from the bookies.

10 Unit Play. #723 Take Wichita State over Kentucky (2:50 pm CBS) Revenge will be served on the court today as the experienced Shockers pull off the upset against the No. 2 seeded Wildcats. Kentucky just does not have the same type of freshman that they have had in years past. Throw in the fact that their best player Malik Monk has been in a major slump of late and I do not see them advancing. All Wichita State does is win game and they have the ability to beat you in a variety of ways. Kentucky has covered the spread just 1 time in their last 5 NCAA Tournament Games. Wichita State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Unlike other top mid-major programs, the Shockers do not feel pressure and that will allow them to win this game straight-up. Getting points is just icing on the cake. 

10 Unit Play. #522 Take Florida over Virginia (8:40 pm TNT) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR. Virginia was lucky to survive their first game (I feel Charles Barkley motivated them) but they will not advance to the Sweet 16. Florida has the advantage of playing in Orlando and they just have too many offensive weapons for Virginia to keep pace with. The Cavaliers just have not been the team the second half of the season and besides beating North Carolina they have not performed well down the stretch. If they are not making shots they struggle and I believe that affects their defense as well. Virginia has been bounced early with better teams then they have this season and I do just not believe they are very good. Florida is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 NCAA Tournament games when they are a favorite. Virginia is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with above a winning percentage of .600. 

The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they have won and covered in seven of eight games. They won straight up last time out at the Clippers and they don’t have any travel involved here as they play in the same building and against a much worse team. The Lakers are the definition of a team that is tanking. They have covered only one of their last 10 games. They have to keep losing to have a good chance to keep their draft pick, and they have been making an art of it lately. We don’t think that the Bucks will rest on their laurels after the win against the Clippers, and this is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now.

10 Unit Play. #832 Take Dayton over Wichita State (Friday 7:10 pm CBS) It is not often you see this big of a favorite from a lower seed in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Dayton is no slouch and played in a much better conference. Yes Wichita State was under seeded but this is not a final four team. The Missouri Valley Conference was way down this year and going 17-1 in that league this year is just not that impressive. The Flyers will be ready to get back on the court after two straight losses. The Shockers only beat 1 team that made the NCAA Tournament this year in South Dakota State, a team that finished fourth in the Summit League. Wichita State is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games as a favorite. Dayton is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Dayton has the motivation in this game as nobody is giving them a chance but we feel they have a great chance to win straight-up. 

Orlando has dropped three straight, but we expect their best effort tonight as everyone seems to get up to play the Warriors lately. Golden State has covered just once in 10 games. They almost lost to Philly last time out here at home but they pulled out a two-point win. This team has been bad all season at covering big lines and they are 16-27 ATS against double-digit lines. Orlando is 6-3 ATS against lines of 10 or higher, so this matchup is good for both of those trends. Orlando is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in the Bay Area. They lost by six points and one point the last two times they have played here, and the Warriors are not playing as well as they were last season.

10 Unit Play. #721 Take UNC Wilmington over Virginia (12:40 pm Tru TV) Just do not believe that Virginia will go very far in this tournament. For most of the conference season their offense has fallen off of a cliff and you cannot win game in the tournament solely based on your defense. The Seahawks had an outstanding season winning CAA regular season and conference tournament in route to a 29-5 record. Wilmington is the much better offense team in this game and I just do not see them getting blown out. They will get hot from the three-point line at some point in this game and take it down to the wire. The Seahawks played in the NCAA Tournament last season and that should help them in this game as well. Wilmington is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. It is not very often that more money comes in on the underdog but that is the case in this game and it is with good reason. 

The Bucks just beat down the Clippers in Milwaukee less than two weeks ago, and that was a double-digit win. Revenge is an overstated handicapping angle for the NBA and the Clippers are not focused on an out-of-conference foe but instead they are trying to work Chris Paul and Blake Griffin back in the lineup and trying to get on the same page for a playoff run. The Clippers just have not been playing up to their potential lately and we think this is likely a close game and the Bucks showed recently already that they can match up well with LA.

The Pacers have played better on the road lately but the fact remains that even with improved play that they are just 11-21 on the road this season. They are a better team overall than the Knicks but at least the Knicks have 15 wins at home this season and we think they have the edge here and they are getting points at home tonight. New York has covered in four of the last six matchups between these clubs. The Pacers have lost three of their last four on the road. New York has had a tough road-heavy schedule lately and we think that being back home will give this team a boost and a chance for a much-needed win.

The Clippers have won four of five and now that they are getting healthy they are finally putting it together ahead of the playoffs. This game is crucial for the No. 4 seed in the playoff and home-court advantage. The Clippers are currently one game back but they already have the tiebreaker by virtue of winning both of the previous matchups this season (they have won and covered in four straight meetings). The Clippers are much better than the Jazz when playing well and fully healthy and they have matched up very well against them in the past. In a playoff-type atmosphere we will back the better team here.

Both teams started off the season slow but both are now realizing their potential and we just have to back the home team here. The Wolves have had a road-heavy schedule lately but when they have been at home they have been amazing with three straight wins, against the Warriors, Clippers and Mavs. Those are three very good teams (the Mavs are playing like a playoff team now). They have won two of four on the road, including a win at Utah and an OT loss at San Antonio. This is the last game of a long road trip for the Wizards, who played in OT in their last two games and will be playing their third game in four nights. Bad spot for the road team here.

Dallas has covered in three of the last four meetings in this series and we think they make it four of five tonight. This team has won six of eight and is playing its best basketball of the season and the oddsmakers still seem to be lining this team based on their overall body of work instead of their current form. This team is playing like a playoff team right now despite a slow start to the season. Toronto has lost three of four and this is the dreaded first game home after a long road trip when teams tend to struggle in this spot. We expect a real close game here that the Mavs have a great chance to win.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. The under is also 4-0 in the Heat’s last four road games. This team has had trouble scoring on the road and they have failed to reach the century mark in two of their last three on the road. This Pacers defense is playing very well lately and we think the Heat are going to have a tough time on offense today, especially with Dragic likely to miss this game for the Heat. Indiana has won and covered in four straight meetings at home in this series and they are an excellent home team overall this season and we expect them to get the job done in a big way Sunday and the under should be an easy cash as well.

10 Unit Play. #758 Take Oregon -2 over Arizona (11 pm ESPN) Conference Tournament Game of the Year. The Ducks beat the Wildcats big in their only meeting this year to earn the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Now they look for the season sweep of them and back-to-back PAC-12 Conference Tournament titles. Oregon did not play well yesterday especially Dillon Brooks and I look for them to right the ship in a big way tonight. Arizona played outstanding yesterday against UCLA and it will be hard to follow that performance up with another high caliber opponent. I felt Oregon had an advantage by avoiding UCLA or Arizona until the finals and that will become evident tonight. Oregon is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday. 

Atlanta is coming in on a back-to-back and this team has played six straight at home. That puts them in a bad spot to head on the road to play a physical team like the Grizzlies and we don’t see it going too well for them tonight. Memphis played on Thursday but they had two nights off before that so they should be much more well rested than their opponents tonight. Atlanta hasn’t been good after a win lately as they have dropped four straight against the spread after a win, and like we said we just think this is a real bad spot for the road team against a Memphis squad that has dropped four straight, albeit against a pretty tough schedule. They need this win badly and they will go all out to get it and should cover the number pretty easily.

Well, this one sure turned out to be a lemon. The Warriors are resting their four best starters and the Spurs are sitting a couple key guys as well. This was supposed to be one of the best games of the season but not it’s looking like anything but. The ABC execs have to be fuming. Nonetheless, we expect the Spurs to win big here. They are a deeper team. The stars of the Warriors elevate the other players around them and make them much better but for San Antonio it’s more of the system and they have some nice depth and we think they will take this game very seriously and expect them to win big.

The Bulls just have a knack for winning these games against top competition at home. They beat Golden State here. They also won when facing their biggest tests against Boston and Toronto recently. The Bulls have lost three straight since that win against the Warriors but that just means they are more desperate for a win tonight and we are getting a very good line because with this team’s history against top opponents at home we expected a line closer to 3 here and we would have leaned to the Bulls at that number as well but the big line here warrants a top play. The Bulls are 8-4 ATS at home against above-.500 teams and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings against Houston in Chicago. Houston has dropped two straight as well heading into this matchup and they are not in great form right now. We expect a pretty close game here and we think this is a coin flip as to the winner but getting the points here is just too good to pass up for our top play for Friday.

OKC has lost four straight and they should be desperate for a win tonight and especially against one of their main rivals. And OKC is 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings and they have been a great bet at home all season at 21-10-1 ATS. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and they have to play it on the road, which is always tough. Plus, the Spurs had to mount a major rally last night vs. Sacramento and they outscored the Kings 32-18 in the fourth quarter, which caused them to use up a lot of energy. We think they might be really lacking in effort tonight compared to what we are used to from the Spurs. Despite winning nine straight the Spurs have covered in just three of those games, and this team has been overvalued by the oddsmakers compared to their current effort on the court.

We have been on the Clippers lately with poor results but we have to go with where we see value so we will back them Thursday for our top play. The Clips are getting Blake Griffin and Chris Paul back in playing shape and they should start to play better as they make their playoff push. Memphis has had the edge in this series for a long time but the Clippers scored a nine-point win last time out so maybe the tide is turning in this series. The Clippers come in on a back-to-back after a poor effort last night in Minnesota but it’s just hard to see this team playing games like that on back-to-back nights and maybe they were looking ahead to this game against a more traditional rival. We had LA as a slight favorite in this game and expect them to win straight up.

The Lakers are a team to fade down the stretch. While we don’t think they are blatantly tanking, they need to finish with one of the NBA’s worst record to get a chance to keep their high draft pick in the upcoming draft. No one is going to get fired for bad performance, so they just don’t have a lot of motivation to win right now. They have not covered in seven straight games, so that just goes to show you how they are playing lately despite some generous lines. Dallas has covered in four of the last seven meetings and they won the last meeting by 49 points! We think this one will be a blowout as well, and Dallas is a couple games out of the playoffs in the west standings so they aren’t going to overlook any opponent right now.

We were on Portland last time these teams played last week in Portland, and we will go for the other side here in this home-and-home, and that just goes to show how important home-court advantage is in the NBA. The Thunder lost all three games in their three-game road trip, so they will be pretty desperate for a win here, and this team is a completely different club at home (23-8) compared to the road (12-20). They are 21-9-1 ATS at home and that is one of the best ATS trends in the league for home teams. They are also 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series in OKC.

10 Unit Play. #541 Take BYU over Saint Mary’s (11:30 pm ESPN) Just feel that BYU is playing at an equal level of Saint Mary’s at the moment and they must win this game to have any thoughts of making the NCAA Tournament this season. Do not be fooled by the final score of the Gaels game on Saturday against the Pilots. Portland is a very depleted team and yet trailed by just single digits for some of the second half before running out of gas in a big way to lose by 23 points. BYU has much more depth and talent compared to Portland and I just do not believe Saint Mary’s is good enough to beat them three times in one season. Throw in the fact we are getting this many points and it is just too good to pass up. Saint Mary’s is 4-9 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 15 games following an ATS win in their previous game.