Sports Picks & Predictions

We went with the Warriors on Sunday and watched that game very closely and even though they won it’s obvious that they just don’t have that killer instinct right now. It’s probably the best thing for their championship aspirations to take it somewhat easy right now as last season they wore themselves out and faltered in the finals. They have now failed to cover in six straight games. The Hawks have failed to cover in three straight but they have been very competitive and this is a huge game for them tonight as the lone time they host the Warriors this season. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS this season as a dog of four or more points and they are undervalued again here on Monday and we think this will be an extremely close game that the Hawks have a chance to win straight out.

Just like this Golden State team when they have a chip on their shoulder, and after losing at the Bulls and Wizards they will be very anxious to get back on track here on national TV from New York. We normally haven’t liked taking the Warriors minus the big points as they have tended to be hit or miss in these situations. And of course Durant is out for awhile. Golden State has dominated this series and they have won all of the last five meetings by an average of 26 points. They have covered in three of the last four, but the only one they didn’t cover was still a 13-point win at home in December. They led that game by as many as 25. The bookies are punishing this Golden State team because of the Durant injury. But this team has done pretty well in the past without Durant. Yes, their supporting cast may not be as good as the last couple years, but they still have the best team in the league even without KD and after cold shooting last game we think that things even out the other way here. The Knicks are the opposite of the Warriors, a very dysfunctional group, while the Warriors play the most unselfish team basketball in the NBA. Golden State should roll here.

Denver has been playing well and Charlotte really hasn’t, but you have to look at these two teams on paper and think that this is too many points. Denver has been below average this season when laying big points and we just don’t think they are good enough to lay this many points. Maybe against a team like Brooklyn or Philly, but the Hornets have some nice talent and they are probably desperate for a win tonight in a very winnable matchup. They haven’t been terrible in their last five games if you look closer at the results as they have two wins and two OT losses (at Detroit and at LA Clippers). A little luck in those two games and this team is on a hot streak right now. We think the Hornets go all out here to end this long road trip on a positive note.

The Clips have covered in six of the last nine meetings. This team has struggled lately and burned us a couple times but we just have to take the value here tonight. The Clippers are a much better team here. They have been dealing with players coming back into the lineup and it has taken everyone a bit of time to mesh. They went down big in the first half last night at Milwaukee but they played really well in the second half and probably would have won the game eventually if they had more time. They have dropped four of their last five and they really need a win badly here and there will be no taking the night off, especially in front of a national TV audience. Chicago is probably a little too high after their big win over Golden State and they have a road trip coming up and we just think this is a real bad spot for the Bulls tonight.

10 Unit Play. #692 Take East Tennessee State over Mercer (8:30 pm ESPN 3) Mercer is a traditional power in the Southern Conference and thus this line is lower than what it should be. But this is nowhere near as strong as past Bears teams and ETSU will complete the three game sweep of them on Saturday night. Neither of the first two meetings was very competitive with the Buccaneers winning the first game by 9 points and the second game by 17 points last month. This is a one bid league for ETSU has yet to accomplish anything and must win this conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. ETSU has won six of their last seven games. ETSU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Saturday. 

These teams just played on Wednesday in Toronto and the Wizards scored the road win. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor in the NBA because these guys are professionals with short memories, but when teams play games in close succession like this the second meetings normally fares well for the losing team, and we think that will certainly be the case tonight, and we love that we are getting so many points here as we had this line handicapped at -3 with a lean to Toronto at that number. Toronto had won the last five meetings in the series before the Wednesday loss.

Portland has won five in a row at home against the Thunder. We think that trend continues here tonight. Portland has won only one of their last six games. They haven’t been covering lately, either. But if you look closer that have been playing some decent ball. They were up big late last time out against Detroit before falling in OT and they lost at Toronto by six the game before that when getting 5.5 points. They played well at Atlanta before the break too but lost in OT. They should be hyped to play the Thunder tonight and we see them giving their best effort. OKC is a decent team but their current four-game winning streak came mostly against lousy teams. We think they will lose this one on the road tonight.

We think this is a great spot for the Clippers. They have had two nights off entering this game and should be well rested. They lost to the Warriors and Spurs on back-to-back nights out of the break and now they play the third best team in the west. They really need to put on a good performance tonight and should go all out to do so. They don’t want to lose to the three top teams in the west in one week’s time as they would be a bad omen for their playoff chances. The Rockets have six more wins than the Clippers but have been relatively healthy this season compared to LA, who missed both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul for a considerable time. Paul and Griffin were out last time these teams played in a blowout home loss but the Clippers won and covered both meetings before that. The sharps pounded the Clips overnight as this line was released at PK but there is still very nice value here with the Clips laying the small number at home. The Rockets have covered only one of their last three games and this team is probably a bit overvalued right now and this is pretty much a must win game for the Clippers after losing those last two to GSW and San Antonio. LA is 5-2 as a small favorite this season and we think they get the job done here tonight at Staples Center.

We really love the way the Jazz are playing right now as they have won and covered three straight and they are in playoff form right now. They are the better team in this matchup and this line is more than fair. They have done their recent good work against solid competition. The Thunder have also won and covered three straight, but those games were against the Pelicans, Lakers and Knicks, three of the NBA’s more dysfunctional groups. Utah is 9-3 ATS as a small favorite and the Thunder are 1-6 ATS as a small dog, and we think that those trends will continue tonight and we thought Utah should be at least -4 here and maybe a bit more. We think there is a great chance that they put up a great defensive performance and win this one by 5+.

10 Unit Play. #724 Take Davidson over St Bonaventure (7 pm) The Wildcats have not lived up to expectations this season currently with a 7-9 conference record. But they are still a tough out at home and this is a game they need in order to sure up their seed for the conference tournament next week. Davidson still has the best player on the floor in Jack Gibbs and something the Bonnies have not seen recently. St Bonaventure is 10-6 on the season in Atlantic 10 play but most of their wins have come against the bottom of the conference (St Joes 2, Saint Louis 2, & Duquesne 2). The Bonnies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games played on Tuesday. The Wildcats are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games played on Tuesday. 

10 Unit Play. #625 Take Nevada over UNLV (6 pm CBSSN) Always dangerous to lay points on the road in a rivalry game but the talent disparity is just too large. The Rebels have lost eight straight games and they cannot wait for this season to end and put the rest the worst season in their storied history. Nevada won the first meeting by 27 points and the Pack have to much to play for to let up in this game (regular season MWC title). Nevada has not played that well on the road in recent games against San Diego State and Utah State but those teams had playmakers and that is something UNLV lacks in a major way. Nevada is 33-16 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 51 games. UNLV is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. The spread should be double digits and we will take full advantage of a favorable number. 

Not sure what is wrong with the Hornets but they have better talent than they have displayed lately and they have just been horrible as they have not been playing fundamental team basketball. They had a great chance for a win last time out at Detroit but blew a huge late lead and lost in OT. No way they should be a favorite here. The Kings played great in their first game in the post-Cousins era and they seem to have a chip on their shoulder. This team still has some talent and they are probably the better team right now even without Cousins. Great value in the home underdog in this early tip.

The offenses should be rusty here and the defenses should be fresh, and we think this will be a low-scoring contest just like the last four meetings have been, and all have gone well under the posted total. This one has been given a big total because of some of the Bucks recent contests, but we think they will be able to hold down a Jazz offense that is not often very dynamic on the road and we think that they can score the win in a low-scoring game. The Bucks won three straight before the break and we think that the positive momentum will carry on here in their first contest after the break.

The Warriors own this series. They have won nine straight in the series (they have covered in five of six) and they seem to take a perverse pleasure in making the Clippers look bad. They know exactly how to expose their weaknesses and how to push their buttons. And the Clips really have no answer for these guys. This team is thought of as the only team to be able to challenge the Warriors in the playoffs (besides maybe the Spurs), but that is complete BS as that series would be a 4-0 sweep. These teams hate each other but the Warriors are the ones that have the superior talent and the better coaching and also they play as a team. And they always take this matchup seriously, and when they are at their best they are very hard to beat. Chris Paul could return for the Clippers tonight. As we saw when Blake Griffin returned to action for this team, it took him a few games to get back in the groove. This is not the type of game where a player wants to be thrown in the fire after being out for a long time, and the possibility of Paul playing has lowered this line and given us even more value as we were more than happy to take the Warriors at the opening number of 14-14.5. They haven’t had any success against the Warriors recently with Paul in the lineup anyways, and a rusty Paul might be more of a hindrance to his team than a weapon.

10 Unit Play. #723 Take Duke over Syracuse (7 pm ESPN) The Blue Devils are playing outstanding basketball at the moment having won 7 straight games. That includes wins over three ranked teams and they just have much more talent than does Syracuse. The Orange have cooled off of late having lost three straight games and Duke just has too many shooters for them to not be effective against a 2-3 zone. Coach K has won 4 of the 7 meetings against Syracuse and expect them to take care of business tonight at the Carrier Dome. 

10 Unit Play. #544 Take Illinois over Northwestern (8 pm BTN) The Illini are looking for the season sweep of Northwestern tonight in Champaign. Most believe Northwestern has done enough to earn their first NCAA Tournament bid in program history but they have been very shaky of late. The Wildcats have lost three of their last five games and we down late at home last time out to Rutgers. Illinois has talent but they will likely be making a coaching change in the next couple of weeks. That being said they have won two of their last three games and they will be up for this game since they can only play the role of spoiler at this point of the season. Illinois has a record of 133-40 against Northwestern including 67-14 in Champaign. Northwestern is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. 

10 Unit Play. #506 Take North Carolina over Virginia (12 pm ESPN) Just feel Virginia is still getting way too much respect for this year’s squad. They have trouble scoring points and that will be their undoing at North Carolina on Saturday night. The Tar Heels have not lost a game at home this season and have a variety of scorers on the floor at any time (including bench players). Virginia has lost three of their last four games and North Carolina is better than all three of those teams (Syracuse, Duke, & Virginia Tech). North Carolina is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. These teams are trending in different directions and North Carolina has beaten Virginia the last two years in the conference tournament. 

We had the Pacers as our big play on Wednesday and they hung with the Cavs all game until the fourth quarter, and one thing about tonight’s game as a reason why we like the Pacers is even though they come in on a back-to-back, they didn’t give much effort in the fourth last night so they should be relatively fresh! Yes, the Wizards have been playing well but they have dropped four of six ATS as they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. Washington has played a home-heavy schedule, which has made them look good, but the reality is that this team is 9-14 on the road and the Pacers are one of the best home teams in the NBA.

10 Unit Play. #710 Take Wisconsin over Michigan (7 pm ESPN) We have seen all season in college basketball that good teams tend to respond in a big way after a couple of lack-luster performances. The Badgers have not been playing well of late despite winning eight of their last nine games including three road games during this span. Michigan is a good match-up for them as they do not have a strong post game and do not play in your face defense that could frustrate the Badgers. Michigan has been up and down the entire season and they have not won three games in a row since before Christmas. If Michigan gets hot from the three-point line they can win this game but I do not believe that will happen. The Wolverines have not beaten the Badgers since 2014 and expect that trend hold true tonight. Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

These teams played a week ago and the Pacers lost by 15 points at home. Now they face each other in a rematch and the Cavs are pretty small favorites at home here. This line seems fishy and we will side with the sportsbooks on this one. The Pacers always seem to get fired up for this series and they are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings despite that last loss last week. But this sets up a nice revenge spot for the road team here. Kevin Love had a big game last week with a double-double but he is out now and that leaves the Cavs a bit shorthanded. The Pacers haven’t been a good road team this season but they have been better recently and are 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road. The Cavs have not been good in back-to-back situations like they find themselves in again tonight and are 0-4 ATS in their last four in this situation.

The Lakers as a favorite? No thanks. This team is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season and they are 3-6 ATS at home against a team with a losing record. We had the Kings as a slight favorite in this game and we expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers are a tricky team moving forward as they need to keep losing to get their Top 3 pick in the draft. We aren’t saying that they will tank, but they don’t have a lot of motivation to win. This team should perform well as an underdog but they are more likely to disappoint as a favorite like we see them here tonight.

Dallas has won and covered in three of the last four meetings and we have them handicapped as a slight favorite in this matchup and expect them to win the game. The points are just a bonus in case it’s close. Both teams are playing well but the Mavs have been really underestimated by the oddsmakers and they have cashed in seven of their last eight games. This seems like another spot where they are underrated as the Mavs have been really good at home lately and they are 17-10 ATS here on their home court this season.

The Raptors have had their troubles in the dog days of the NBA season but this team is still one of the best bets in the NBA at 31-22-1 ATS on the season. They are healthy now and we think that they will want to finish the first half of the season strong before the all-star break. They have won and covered in two of their last three and they are in a good spot here to take that 3 of 4. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 13 games and this team has been very inconsistent all season long but they have been trending downwards in a big way lately. We see the Raps getting a pretty comfortable win here.

The Warriors like to portray an image of being great teammates, whether that is true or not, and we think that they may go overboard to get Kevin Durant a big night here in his first visit back to OKC after leaving the city for the Bay. We think that may screw up their game. This is already a distraction as reports came out today that Durant has hired extra security for this game. The crowd here will of course be a big factor and Golden State is also coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Thunder were off Friday and they had two nights off before their last game on Thursday, so they should be well rested here and primed for a big performance. OKC has all the motivation here and we expect them to keep this one close or win straight up.

10 Unit Play. #541 Take Florida State over Notre Dame (6 pm ESPN) Just feel that the wrong team is favored and the Seminoles are the more well rounded team. Notre Dame has been in a freefall losing four of their last five game and they were only competitive in one of those losses (Georgia Tech). The Irish won a lot of close conference games earlier this season but their luck in close games eventually caught up with them. The Seminoles are one of the best teams in the country and have righted the ship with three straight blowout winning by an average of 30 points per game. This team has an outstanding 14.2 point differential and should have no problem going into South Bend and winning this game. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win in their previous game. The Irish have only beaten one ranked team and I just do not see them wining this game. The wrong team is favored as the Seminoles continue to roll. 

The Bucks haven’t been playing well lately but this is a very winnable game for them and we expect them to get back on the winning track in a big way here. We had this line handicapped at 8, but of course the bookies can’t lay a big line on this game like that since the Bucks haven’t been playing well, but this is only their second game in six nights so they are very well rested and they will go all out for the win here, especially with a much tougher game at Indiana coming up on Saturday. The Bucks have covered in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these teams here in Milwaukee.

10 Unit Play. #742 Take Duke over North Carolina (8 pm ESPN) Just feel Duke needs this game more. The Blue Devils have great talent but have only played as a unit in spurts this season. With Coach K back over the weekend I expect this team to take off over the next couple of weeks and move up to a number two seed come March. Duke has won four of the last five match-ups with North Carolina and 11 of the last 15 going out even further. North Carolina has played a relatively easy conference schedule thus far, as they still have games against Virginia (2), Louisville, and Duke. The Blue Devils are the better shooting team from the arc and their freshman are starting to come along. Playing at Cameron is always tough and this is the first big game the home fans get to see this season (first ranked team to come to Durham). North Carolina is 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Duke is 15-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 22 home games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Both trends hold true tonight. I really believe Duke needs this game in order to reach the Final Four this season. 

The Magic are 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and this team just should not be favored by this many against anyone with the way they are playing right now. They have shown a real lack of heart in getting blown out the last couple games. These teams have similar records and even though the Magic have better talent, the Sixers have at least been playing harder lately and we think they can challenge for the win tonight. Philly is 6-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so they should be fine here after a pretty competitive game last night against the Spurs (they covered).

Dallas played in the high altitude in Denver last night while the Blazers were off last night and they had a day off before their last game on Sunday so they should be plenty fresh and ready to score the road win here. And this is a big revenge spot for the road team as they lost to the Mavs in Portland on Friday. Dallas jumped out to a 24-point lead in that game but won by only four points, and the only thing that stopped the Blazers from coming back and winning that one was that time ran out. Revenge is an overplayed NBA handicapping facet but it does come into play when teams have met recently, and that is certainly the case here tonight.

These teams have similar records but the Jazz have had many injury issues this season and the Hawks have been playing a bit over their heads but we just think that Utah is the much better team here and we think they should be a decent-sized favorite here. Utah has covered four of the last six meetings in this series and we think they match up well in this contest. They won by 27 at home when these teams met in November. We expect the Jazz defense to flex its muscle tonight and we think there is a chance they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here. We had this game handicapped at Jazz -3.5, so we think there is some nice value here.

10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons (Super Bowl 51, Sunday, 6:30 pm FOX) Just cannot bet my hard-earned money against Brady and Belichick. The Patriots are the more complete team on both sides of the football and will have two weeks before kickoff to devise a plan to slow down this high-powered Atlanta offense. If New England can jump on to a lead early I see them winning this game by double digits as Atlanta has not faced that much over the last couple of months. The Falcons still have a very shaky defense and if New England is balanced that will not allow their front four to just tee off on the quarterback. The current Patriots have won four of their six Super Bowls and Belichick and Brady have won 24 playoff games together. The Patriots have the No. 1 ranked defense and the defense has the advantage when playing the No. 1 offense in the Super Bowl winning five of the last six meetings. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games (0-6 ATS prior to this year). New England has covered the spread in five straight games against teams with a winning record. 

The Nuggets are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights while the Spurs last played Thursday and they had Wednesday off as well, so this team is fairly well rested. The Nuggets are only 4-6 ATS on the second of a back-to-back. San Antonio has covered in four of the last five meetings and they covered lines of 12.5 and 14.5 in that span. The Spurs are 19-14 ATS when laying six or more points, so they are very solid at covering the big lines. The Nuggets are 4-8 ATS when getting five or more points so this team has not been very good as a solid underdog. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by an average of 21 points, and we expect another blowout here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #592 Take Illinois over Minnesota (4 pm BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. These are similar teams and playing at home will allow the Illini to emerge victorious. Both teams still have an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament but need to protect home court in order to accomplish this. Minnesota has lost five straight games and this will be their fourth road game in their last six. Illinois has beaten Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa in Champaign and Minnesota is very similar to those teams. Illinois has had great success against Minnesota with an all-time record of 122-65 including 71-18 when playing in Champaign. Illinois has also won three straight and Coach Croce has beaten Minnesota six of eight. Both coaches are on the Hot Seat but the Illini get up more for this game and expect them to win this game by 8-10 points. The Illini have the best player on the floor in Malcolm Hill and this is a game they need. Minnesota is 15-35 ATS (1 push) in their last 51 road games. Illinois has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 home games. 

The Bucks have not been playing well lately and the Nuggets have been pretty good (although they have lost two straight entering this game). But the Bucks are just a much better team here and we had them handicapped as 3-point favorites here, and that makes great value tonight as we think that Milwaukee should win this game straight up. Milwaukee has had a really tough and road-heavy schedule lately and they are underrated at this point of the season. We think that this team will get things together and go on a nice ATS run soon, and that could start tonight. Denver is pretty banged up right now while the Bucks are relatively healthy and the Nuggets are also playing their third game in four nights, so fatigue should be a factor here. We would not be surprised to see the Bucks win this one by 6+.

Atlanta is in a downturn right now and they have they have lost three of five and have covered in just one of those games. They are in a real tough spot here on a back-to-back after getting blown out in Miami last night. Now they have to play this back-to-back on the road and against a much better team. We don’t expect things to go too well for them. Houston is 9-2 ATS this season when laying nine or more points so they usually excel in these types of situations. The weary Hawks probably will not be able to keep up with the Rockets energy tonight since Houston had the night off Wednesday.

We like to back teams off a big loss and that is the case the Clippers find themselves in tonight after an embarrassing 46-point loss to the Warriors. The Clippers have had three nights off after that game and they are in a pretty much must-win situation tonight after losing four of their last five. But that was against a pretty tough schedule and we think they will take full advantage of this lesser opponent tonight. Blake Griffin hasn’t been that effective since his return but he is getting back in basketball shape and should be a beast until Chris Paul gets back closer to the playoffs. They played well without Paul in the past and we think this team will start to notch more wins. And they will certainly take this game very seriously after that drubbing by the Warriors last time out.

The Wizards have won and covered in the last four meetings in this series. The Knicks had the night off on Monday but they played in a four OT game on Sunday and that is like playing an extra half of basketball and that fatigue will be a factor here. The Wizards are really underrated right now, and that is obvious by the fact that they have covered nine straight games entering this matchup. And they are not just covering since they have won all but one of those games. This team has been really good at home where they are 19-6 SU on the season and 17-8 ATS. This team can put up points in a hurry and we think the weary Knicks will not be able to keep up.

The Magic have covered in three of the last five meetings. They may get Evan Fournier back tonight, and he could be a huge boost to this club. Yes, Orlando is coming in on a back-to-back and even played in OT last night, but this team is young and we don’t think that fatigue will be a huge issue. This is just too many points for a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Minnesota and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. They are also 8-2 ATS when getting eight or more points this season and they are normally a strong play as a big dog.

10 Unit Play. #512 Take Notre Dame over Duke (7 pm ESPN) The Blue Devils continue to be way overvalued and we will fade them whenever we can on the road. Duke got a gift win on Saturday against Wake Forest but I just do not believe that will turn around their recent slump. This team has talent but they do not play as a cohesive unit and that will be their downfall on Monday in South Bend. The Irish need a win in the worst way after a recent two game slump but returning home should benefit them greatly. Duke just does not have the same magic without Coach K and they will struggle to do any damage the rest of the season. Duke is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday. 

10 Unit Play. #606 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Colorado State Rams (6 pm CBSSN) The Aztecs are just a different team at home and I look for them to win their third straight home game. San Diego State is coming off an embarrassing lost at Air Force and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Rams Saturday afternoon. The Rams last two losses have been blowouts and I believe San Diego State is a better team that New Mexico and Fresno State. The Aztecs have won four straight in the series and nine of the last 11 get-togethers. San Diego State is 14-4 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 20 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. 

Denver has played well lately but this team is not worthy of being a seven-point favorite over any NBA team.  The Suns are playing well too but this team is more under the radar, but they have covered in five of their last six games and they should play their A Game here tonight in what is a very winnable game. The Nuggets haven’t been big favorites too often this season, but when they are they are just 1-2 ATS and we expect a close game here.

The Sixers covered in the last meeting last season but the Clippers had covered in eight straight meetings in this series before that last game (the Clips won by six against a nine-point spread). LA should get Blake Griffin back tonight. Although he won’t play full minutes he should give this team a huge boost both emotionally and on the floor as well. You can kind of tell that this team played like they knew the cavalry was coming last time out in a 10-point win at Atlanta as this team just has not historically done well with Griffin and Chris Paul out of the lineup. We think their star will give them a big boost tonight and Embiid is not expected to play for Philly and they are not as strong without him.

The Spurs have won and covered the last three games in this series, and none have been close. In fact, the Spurs have won all three games by an average of 28 points. And we are getting the shortest line they have faced in any of those games. The Spurs are being punished here by the oddsmakers because Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are out, but this team is less about the players than the system, and they have plenty of solid players to pick up the slack. The Spurs have been great at covering big lines and they are 17-11 ATS when laying six or more points this season. This team doesn’t let up in the fourth quarter with a big lead and that is why they are such a great team to bet on.

We like the way the Mavs have been playing lately and we have been on them in certain games, but we just don’t think they are ready to be favored by this many points over any team. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season, and we think this will be a close game. The Lakers definitely have a chance to win this one. They have lost 12 straight to the Mavs and that ups the urgency to go out and get a win here. And the Mavs teams that won most of those games against the Lakers is not as good this season and the Lakers are improved, and we think they come to play here on Sunday.

We are not a big fan of this Cavs team and there probably isn’t a more overrated squad in the east. Yes, they are the best in the east by far, but they are always overvalued by the oddsmakers (18-21-2 ATS this season) and we don’t think they stack up well against the best teams in the west. Anytime you are getting points for the Spurs you really have to take notice, and that is the case here tonight. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings in Cleveland, and we think they win this one straight up tonight, but we will take the points instead of the moneyline in case it’s a close game. The Spurs have been dogs only twice this season, and of course they are 2-0 ATS in these situations. Make that 3-0 tonight.

NBA Game of the Year. This is the last game of a seven-game homestand for the Kings. It hasn’t gone well. They have only one win during that stretch. We think that makes them a very desperate team tonight in a very winnable game. They are on the road for eight straight games after this game tonight, and they better get a win here at home against a very beatable opponent because if they lose this one they are in trouble. There isn’t much such a thing as a must-win game at this point in the season, but this one is close. If you look at the opponents the Kings have played in this recent homestand you start to think that maybe this team is not playing as bad as their recent results indicate. Opponents included the Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder. That’s about as tough as a four-game stretch as a team can have. They won against Detroit. The only bad loss during that stretch was against Miami. They took Cleveland to OT and covered against the Warriors. They played OKC pretty close too despite the non cover. Indiana has had a lot easier recent schedule. They are 6-1 in their last seven games, with wins over New Orleans (Anthony Davis had limited minutes), New York, Brooklyn, Detroit, Orlando and Chicago. And most of these games were at home. We are confident the Kings could have played just as well with that schedule, and the Pacers are overvalued as a result. But the Pacers just stink on the road, where they have won only five games this season. They are 5-13 ATS on the road, so when they lose they normally fail to cover as well. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (less than 4.5 points) and the Pacers are 3-9 ATS as an underdog of less than 4.5 points.

10 Unit Play. #523 Take VCU over Fordham (7 pm SNY) The Fordham Rams are not good and they have won just two games since November 24th. The somehow won at Davidson last Wednesday but that is just a fluke evident by the fact they followed that up with a 20-point home loss last Saturday. This is going to be a 20-point game for the VCU Rams. VCU is always one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 and they are eager to get back onto the court after suffering their first loss in conference on Saturday. This is a much more talent team that Fordham, a team that has lost three straight home games. Fordham got blown out by Saint Joes without their best player and VCU is fully stocked and ready to get back on the wining track. Fordham is 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games. VCU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. 

Dallas has won and covered in two straight games and this team is playing with some confidence right now. The Bulls have eight more wins than the Mavs this season but Dallas has dealt with a lot of injuries all season and these teams aren’t as far apart as you might think. We just don’t think the Bulls are good enough to be laying this many points to any team coming off of two wins. Chicago has not been a good team to back as a favorite as they are 4-9 ATS when laying four or more points this season and we think they are overvalued here once again. Dallas plays in the Western Conference and they play tougher teams on a nightly basis and that is a big reason for such a disparity in these teams records, plus the injuries for Dallas. The Mavs have won three straight in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win here tonight.

We just think the Warriors are a much better team in this matchup. Yes, the Cavs won the finals last season, but we think the Warriors were out of gas late in that series after (stupidly) trying so hard for the regular-season wins record. And Cleveland got the win on Christmas when these teams played but they caught the Warriors at the end of that game and we thought Golden State controlled most of that game. Now the venue changes as the Warriors are back home for this one and we think they have a big game here as they should be very very motivated and this team plays its best with a chip on its shoulder.

10 Unit Play. #668 Take San Diego State over Utah State (10 pm ESPN 3) The Aztecs are going to go on a winning streak and I believe the seeds of this have been planted in their last game out. San Diego State beat San Jose State by 15 points on Tuesday in a game they led by 20+ for most of the evening. Now they face another bottom feeder team at home and expect another 15-18 point victory. The Aggies are just not the same team when playing on the road and they already have losses at Air Force & Wyoming. San Diego State is much better than both of those teams and they are going to make some noise in the conference sooner or later. Utah State is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. 

10 Unit Play. #303 Take Houston Texans over New England Patriots (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS)  NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. The Texans are a huge underdog in this game despite having one of the best defenses in the league. New England is solid to good on both sides of the football but I just feel Houston is due to put forth a good performance against New England. The Texans have a lot of coaches with New England ties and they were gutless in the meeting against the Patriots this year. Only twice in their last thirteen postseason games have the Patriots won a game by more than 13 points. Houston has enough talent to hang around and I just do not see a 20+ point victory in this game. New England is 11-1 ATS since the return of Tom Brady and sooner or later the law of averages will have to even out. The same thing happened with Temple covering 12 straight games before losing outright to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. I am not predicting a straight-up win for the Texans but I feel they can keep this game closer than the posted number. 

The Wizards are one of those teams that has no clue on the road but is great at home. They are 15-6 at home this season and have covered in nine of their last 10 here in DC. Philly will likely be without Rookie of the Year frontrunner Embiid as he normally rests on the second end of a back-to-back. That’s probably a big reason that the Sixers are 1-6 in back-to-backs this season. The Wizards just play great on their home court and they have had two nights off coming into this one. Philly has been playing pretty great lately but this team still has a long way to go and we see a blowout win for the home team here tonight.

Boston is a little banged up but this team is better than Atlanta and we think it’s a gift to get points in this matchup tonight. We fully expect the Celtics to win this one. Atlanta is playing really well right now but this squad has had a super easy schedule and San Antonio is the only real quality win they have in that time. We think this one would qualify as a quality win but that’s not going to happen. This is another game where we had the underdog as a slight favorite and we think that the Celtics will take this one on the road here on Friday.

We have found that fading the Warriors when laying big points is becoming a solid trend. This team is just not playing as well as last year consistently this season and they shouldn’t be giving that type of effort on a nightly basis because look at how that worked out for them last year as they lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals and looked gassed there at the end of Game 7. The Warriors are just 12-22 ATS this season when laying seven or more points. They are 10-19 ATS when laying double digits. Not only do they not have the same killer instinct as last season but they also are getting their best games from opponents on a nightly basis. Detroit actually played them tough already once this season in a six-point loss in Detroit and they won the meeting before that in Detroit last year. They have covered in three of the last four meetings, and they lost by 14 the last time in GS and were close to covering the spread. We think they come to play again tonight and all indications show they match up well.

10 Unit Play. #713 Take George Washington over VCU (6 pm ESPN 2) We used this play last year as a top play with a similar number and won that game straight-up with the underdog. Expect history to repeat itself on Wednesday night in Richmond. VCU is not a great offensive team and they have been beating up on bad teams of late. George Washington has the better shooting team and if they can take care of the basketball I expect them to take this game down to the wire. Out of the Colonials seven losses only one of them has come over today’s posted number. That was against Florida State, a team that just pounded Duke yesterday. Most of the stats point to around a 4-7 point game and that will be good enough to cash this ticket. In fact both meetings went down to the wire last year with the games being decided by 3 and 4 points (both teams won one of the games). Tyler Cavanaugh is the best offensive player on the floor and he will come up big for us tonight. George Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. VCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  

10 Unit Play. #151 Take Clemson Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) This is just too many points considering Clemson has the much better offense and a couple of playmakers on defense. The spread is solely based on Nick Saban and the respect everyone has for him. He is great but as we saw last week with Urban Meyer, the head coach alone cannot will his team to a victory. Alabama has yet to see an explosive offense like Clemson that can beat you on the ground or through the air. The SEC was way down this year in terms of talent on offense and Deshaun Watson will pick them apart like he did last year. He has not played very many clean games in 2016 but I believe this will be a breakout performance that will propel him up the draft board. Throw in the fact that Clemson has revenge and I really believe Clemson wins this game straight-up. Clemson has covered the spread in six straight bowl games. Clemson is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. 

The Pelicans have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, including about a week and a half ago when the Pels scored a 12-point win in New Orleans. The Knicks were overrated to start the season and they have been playing some of their worst basketball of the season in losing seven of eight, and they had to mount a big comeback in their one win during that stretch. New Orleans is 6-3 ATS as a small dog this season and this is one of their best roles. We think they keep this game very close with the chance for the straight up win, and we think this is an inflated line tonight for the home team.

The Hornets need all the help they can get against the Spurs on the road but they will be without Nic Batum here and he is really one of our favorite players in the league and he’s a very important player for this team. We feel they will slide a bit with him out of the lineup. And they are in tough tonight in San Antonio. Many good teams have trouble covering big lines, but not the Spurs, who are 10-7 ATS when laying seven or more points. We expect that percentage to rise as the season wears on as the Spurs have that killer instinct that a lot of other teams don’t possess. The Spurs are completely healthy and had the night off while Charlotte is playing their third game in four nights in a very tough building for opposing teams.

10 Unit Play. #801 Take Fresno State over San Jose State (5 pm) The Spartans have been a door mat in basketball since joining the MWC and anytime you see this low of a number it should be an automatic play. Fresno State made the NCAA Tournament last year and beat Nevada last week in Fresno. This same Wolf Pack team beat the Spartans by 25 points a week and a half ago. It can be dangerous to make these types of comparisons but it hold value in this case. SJSU has already lost three home games this season to Colorado State, Portland, & Denver and the Bulldogs are better than all three of those teams. Fresno State has played three of the top teams in the league thus far (New Mexico, Wyoming, & Nevada) and held their own winning two of those games and taking the Lobos down to the wire at the Pit. Fresno State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. San Jose State is 15-38 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 55 home games. Nuff Said! 

Atlanta is on a back-to-back here, on the road no less, while the Pelicans have had two nights off. Rest definitely favors the home team here. New Orleans is hot and they have won and covered in four of their last five games. Their only slip up was an eight-point loss at Cleveland. They have also covered in six of the last eight games in this series. The Pelicans are playing a lot better after a bad early start and with the Hawks on a back-to-back we had this game handicapped at Pelicans -6 so we think there is great value here and we think there’s a good chance they win by more than seven tonight.

10 Unit Play. #582 Take Nevada over San Diego State (11 pm ESPN 2) It is now or never for Nevada against San Diego State. The Pack have the more talented team this year especially on the offensive side of the ball. They have yet to beat San Diego State since joining the MWC but that will end tonight. The Aztecs have been a mess this season coming off a home loss to New Mexico their last time out. They are 0-3 in true road games including losses at Grand Canyon and Loyola, teams that are much worse than Nevada. The Aztecs haven’t shot well from the field (42.4 percent, second worst in the MW) and is last in the conference in free throws attempted (248). Nevada can score points in a variety of ways and that will be the difference on Wednesday. Nevada is undefeated at home and they are 16-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 22 home games. San Diego State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Nevada pulls away late to win this game by double digits. 

It’s not often we want to lay this many points in an NBA game, but the Warriors are definitely a team that can cover a line like this, and we think they are primed for a top performance tonight. Golden State has won the last two meetings by 45 and 23 points, respectively, and Damian Lillard was in the lineup for Portland in those games. He has missed four straight games and is doubtful tonight, and we think this one could get very ugly. Portland just stinks on defense and they are the third-worst team in the NBA for points allowed. They can compete against other poor teams but they can’t outscore the Warriors, and they haven’t held Golden State to less than 125 in the last four meetings. With or without Lillard we don’t think they will be able to do anything differently tonight, and since the Warriors haven’t been covering lately this line is manageable as we thought it would be a bit higher but we love it at anything less than 20 as we see this one as a total bloodbath. Golden State has covered in 20 of the last 26 meetings at home in this series!

Boston is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series in Boston and 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We are thrilled to get them at less than the key NBA betting number of 7 here. The Celtics have covered in seven of their last nine with one push, and we think they match up well in this contest tonight. We expect them to get a comfortable win. This is their first game since 12/30 and they are well rested tonight while Utah has had a pretty busy schedule, and they are not as good on the road as they are at home. We expect the Boston defense to come up big here and the Utah D will keep the Celtics to a reasonable score, but not enough to keep this game close.  Both teams trend to the under when the total is 200 or higher.

The Bucks finished off a 4-game road trip by winning two of three and covering in both wins. We had them last time out against the Bulls and really liked what we saw in a blowout win. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS this season as a small dog (four points or less) and they have thrived in his role we see them in again tonight. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS as a dog of three or less, meaning they tend to struggle in a situation like this. The Thunder are a public team here while the Bucks are a team that bettors don’t like to wager on, and we thought this spread should be closer to 4.5 with a lean to the Bucks at that number so we think there is some nice value here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #309 Take Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Nobody will be giving the Lions a chance to win this game and we will be in that boat as well. Detroit has not performed well in two consecutive games and now likely face a winner take all on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have not win a division title since 1993 and they have never made it to the Super Bowl in their franchises existence. Green Bay has beaten Detroit 20 of the last 25 meetings and they are just functioning much better now. Detroit got picked apart by the Dallas passing attack on Monday night and I just do not expect their corners to be able to slow down the Packer wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers is now able to use his feet and that makes him the best dual threat quarterback in the league. Green Bay has won five straight games and Clay Matthews is playing at a high level making this one of the better defensive teams in the league. Detroit is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 divisional games. Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 divisional games. 

Boston has won and covered six of their last seven games and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered in two of the last three meetings in this series, and we think the Celtics think of this as one of the biggest games of the season while it’s just another game to the Cavs. Boston is one of the better ATS teams at 18-13-1 ATS this season and Cleveland is just average even though they are the better team. But they are always saddled with shaded lines, and we feel that is the case tonight as we had this game handicapped at 4. The Celtics are healthy coming into this game and we think they are primed for a big performance tonight.

The Kings are one of the best ATS teams this season (17-13-1) while the Blazers are one of the worst (12-21). We think those trends will continue on Wednesday. Damian Lillard is doubtful for this game and this team stinks with him in the lineup but without him they are in real trouble, especially against the most consistent Kings team we have seen in a few years. The Kings have won four straight entering this game and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 11 and six straight games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and we expect the Kings to get a pretty easy win here whether Lillard plays or not.

10 Unit Play. #250 Take Texas A&M Aggies over Kansas State Wildcats (Texas Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28 9 pm ESPN) BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. The Aggies are starting to get healthy with Myles Garrett and Trevor Knight expected to suit up for this game. They just have too many weapons on offense for Kansas State to keep pace with. Everybody loves Bill Snyder but the game has passed him by as the Wildcats still feature a run heavy offense that can be contained by a disciplined defense. Kansas State has not been very competitive in their last two bowl games (both losses) and they will complete the trifecta this Wednesday. We went against them two years ago with our Bowl Game of the Year and UCLA dominated that game even though the final score did not indicate that (UCLA won and covered the spread). Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. A&M once again did not finish out the season well but the time off has done them good and they should be ready to finish out the season on a high note. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. A&M is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. Both trends hold true on Wednesday and we lay the small change with the more athletic team. 

These teams played last week and it was a hard-fought OT loss by the Grizzlies. Since that game was so well played on both sides and the Grizzlies took a loss, we think that game will still be on the minds of the Grizzlies in this one and revenge is definitely in play here tonight. We already know the Grizzlies match up well here. And you can add in the fact that Boston just hasn’t been good at covering numbers here at home where they are 4-8 ATS this season so far. Boston is 1-3 ATS when laying 7 or more points this season and we think the Grizzlies will be really tough in this game and they will not only cover but challenge for the win.

Paul and Griffin are out. Redick is out too. Raymond Felton, CP3’s backup, is sick. This team seems to be staring a freefall with consecutive losses to the Mavs and Lakers, and now they play a team in a back-to-back situation that is better than both of those clubs. This is also their fourth game in five nights and this team is just worn out. You could see it last night in the Lakers loss. Just don’t see how this team is going to regroup and win against a Nuggets team that has had a couple nights off. And this is a good revenge spot for Denver after they got blown out on this same court less than a week ago. They should go all out for a win tonight, and we think that this is a very easy call.

Blake Griffin is out. Chris Paul is questionable with a hamstring issue. If he was able to go you have to think Doc Rivers would hold him out as hamstrings can be tricky and linger and if Paul and Griffin are out for any considerable amount of time then the Clips are in real trouble. But even if Paul plays we still like the Lakers tonight. The Clips used to dominate this series but are now 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Clippers have covered in only two of their last seven games and the bench hasn’t been doing too well lately. With Paul hampered or out the role players have a lot more pressure and they can’t play to the best of their ability without the facilitation of Paul. He makes everyone better. We think this will be close whether CP3 plays or not. But if he is out we think the Clippers are on upset alert.

10 Unit Play. #129 Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) These two teams fought to the death in their first match-up of the season in a game that nearly ended in a tie. Denver has been left for dead on the year but they still have a chance to get to 10 wins on the season and have a chance for a wild card. Kansas City has lost two of their last three home games and were held scoreless in the second half in the other game barely holding off Oakland. Denver blew an 8-point lead with under 20 seconds to play in the first meeting and their defense is still Super Bowl caliber. Denver is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss in their previous game. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The hook may come into play as this will be another hard fought AFC West game. 

10 Unit Play. #112 Take Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (Saturday 1 pm FOX) The Packers got back doored last week against Chicago blowing a 17-point lead and costing us our top play winning streak. But we will use them again on Saturday against a worse offensive team that Chicago. Green Bay needs to win out to have a chance to reach the playoffs and they have revenge on their minds in this game as well. Minnesota opened their new stadium with a victory over Green Bay earlier this year but that was a completely different Viking team than what we will see today. Green Bay has covered the spread in 22 of their last 33 divisional games. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 9 games. 

Portland has really taken a step back this year and they sit at 13-18 on the season after making the playoffs last year and even winning a series. The Spurs suffered a rare loss last night against the Clippers in a game where their shots just didn’t fall. But if they don’t fall for the Spurs one night they probably will the next, and we think this is a great opportunity for them to bounce back. Maybe Pop limits minutes for the starters here. It’s more about the system in San Antonio rather than the players to an extent and they can play well no matter who is on the court and the coach will maximize the potential of those players that are in the lineup. Even though SA is on a back-to-back, this will be the Blazers third game in four nights, so we think it’s a wash pretty much in terms of fatigue.

The Spurs suffered one of their worst losses of the season to these Clippers, in San Antonio, early in the season. That was a 24-point home loss for San Antonio. That is when the Clippers were playing better than anyone in the league and when the Spurs had some struggles at the start of the season. Now the roles have changed as the Clippers have been struggling and now are dealing with the Injury bug as Blake Griffin is out for around a month and the Spurs have looked like one of the best in the NBA again lately and they ended Houston’s long winning streak last time out. We have no doubt they have had this game circled since that bad home loss and we think they dominate tonight.

We had the Pistons big on Monday and they played one of the worst games in the NBA this season in a huge blowout loss at Chicago. This team has a lot of ability but they don’t come to play every night. However, we think that this is a great spot for them to show up. For one, that loss was a complete embarrassment and there will be a lot of criticism if they don’t play well here in a very winnable game back at home. The team was called out by Van Gundy in the media, and we think these guys will respond tonight, not to mention that Memphis is on a back-to-back after a really hard-fought game last night vs. Boston that went to OT, so this is a real tough B-2-B against what should be a motivated Pistons team.

The Bulls have been a money pit for bettors lately as they have covered in only one of their last eight games. They have lost three straight coming into this one and they played horribly in a back-to-back, home-and-home against the Bucks. Normally when a team loses the first game of those types of series they come back strong the next night, but the Bulls lost by 26 in the second stanza. That isn’t a promising sign for a team. The Pistons have lost two straight and this team has been inconsistent, but we feel they match up well here. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and they beat the Bulls pretty soundly in Detroit earlier this month.

Houston has been tearing the NBA apart lately and have been playing as well as any team in the league. This is a bad spot for them. They come in on a back-to-back, for a road game no less, and this will be their third game in four nights. The Timberwolves have had a rare three nights off so they have a huge advantage with rest here. And we think they are facing an inflated number as the bookies are starting to adjust on this Houston team. We are starting to see some positive signs from this Timberwolves team. They have covered in two straight and scored a big road win at Chicago last time out. We think this is a solid “buy low” team right now and we had this game handicapped as a PK so we think there is very nice value tonight for our Top Play.

10 Unit Play. #784 Take UCLA over Ohio State (3 pm CBS) The Buckeyes have not been playing at a high level since 2013 and they just do not have the talent to keep this game under double digits. Ohio State has played a weak schedule thus far facing only 1 NCAA Tournament team in Virginia and they also have a home loss to Florida Atlantic. UCLA is just a machine this year and they have only had one completive game this year amongst their 11 wins and that was a five point WIN AT KENTUCKY! This team has great size and can beat you in a variety of way scoring 98 points per game (2nd in the country). I believe they are the best team in the country at the moment and they have a major advantage playing this game in Las Vegas, driving distance from Los Angeles. Ohio State is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games. UCLA has covered the spread in 8 straight games. Ohio State has some talent but they just do not play well as a unit and that will be their undoing in this game. Coach Steve Alford is getting the fan base off his back in a big way this season and his success continues Saturday as the Bruins move to 12-0 on the year. 

We like this young Bucks team. They have some real talent here. They don’t always get it done at the betting window or on the court, but they have a lot of potential if you pick your spots, and we think this is a great spot for them tonight. They have lost three straight so they will play really hard here in order to avoid a four-game slide. They also have a rare national TV showcase in Milwaukee and will want to take advantage. The Bulls are on TNT all the time so this is just another game. But for Milwaukee this will be a big deal and they already have a great home-court advantage. The Bucks are 3-1 ATS as a small favorite this season.

We think that this is a real tough spot for the Magic. They are coming in on a back-to-back after a lot of running and gunning against Atlanta last night in one of the highest scoring games of the season (we had the under there, whoops on that one!). Orlando hasn’t been good on back-to-backs as they are 2-3 ATS and they allow well over their season average on defense. A fatigued team that hasn’t been playing good defense is not a good situation for the home team tonight as the Clippers are pretty well rested having played only two games in the last six nights. Orlando has allowed 116 or more in four of their last five games. This team was pretty good defensively earlier in the season but they haven’t been lately while their offense has been playing better so the over is an easy call here too. But the Clippers can probably pick their score on offense and with the way Orlando has been protecting the basket and with them being on a back-to-back they can probably pick their score tonight.

10 Unit Play. #128 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) When two good teams met late in the season I generally side with the team that needs it more. At 6-6 the Packers definitely need this game more and they have beaten Seattle six straight times in Green Bay (average margin of victory 16 points per game). I truly believe the wrong team is favored considering Seattle laid an egg in their last road game at Tampa Bay. Seattle pounded Carolina last week but lost Earl Thomas in the process and that will come back to bite them in this game. Green Bay beat Seattle by double digits last season and their defense is finally starting to show signs of life. Seattle still has a terrible offensive line and Green Bay will get to QB Russell Wilson a few times in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December. 

Golden State has covered six of the last seven meetings in this series. We know the Warriors think of Memphis as a rival and we expect their best effort here. The Grizzlies have been playing a lot better than we expected this year but this team is still down from what we have seen in the past from this club. We think the bottom will fall out soon and that they will start dropping a lot of games. This one sure looks like a mismatch to us. The Warriors are starting to look like the team that was best ATS in the NBA last season and they are well rested after Friday off and we don’t see any problems for them here. Look at who Memphis has played in their current 5-game winning streak: Orlando, LA Lakers, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland. They face a big step up in competition tonight.

10 Unit Play. #553 Take Oklahoma State over Tulsa (5 pm CBSSN) Anything can happen in any game but this is just a complete mismatch in talent and I see a double-digit victory for the visitor. Tulsa is in a complete rebuild and were down big to Illinois State this week before a late rally got them a victory. That will not be the case today and I feel they will struggle to even get the ball into the front court against this constant pressure from the Pokes. All three of Tulsa’s three losses have come by double digits and they have yet to record a quality victory on the season. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 nonconference games. Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. 

We just really like the Rockets this year and think they are clearly the better team in this matchup. This team is among the best betting teams in the NBA this season at 15-7 ATS, and the reason they are so good at covering is taking care of business in games like this, which they have done many times this season. Houston has also owned this series ATS, covering in seven straight meetings. There are some teams in the NBA that just cover almost automatically against certain opponents, and we think that this is a very weak number for Friday as we had this line at Houston -4.5. OKC is getting all the hype because of Russell Westbrook and his awesome Triple Double run, but Houston is the more complete team and we think they continue their road success tonight where they have as many wins as the Thunder so at home (9-5 on the road this season).

The Bulls have lost three straight but they just went through a brutal stretch of four games in five nights. But they have had a night of rest here and we think that will do them wonders. The Spurs have yet to lose a game on the road this season. That isn’t going to last, and we think they could slip up here. The Spurs have been playing great basketball, but they have covered only one of their last five games, which tells us that their lines are becoming too inflated. We had this game handicapped at PK with a lean to Chicago, so great value here tonight. Chicago is a solid 5-3 ATS at home this season and they have been a solid ATS team at 12-9 despite a recent ATS slide. But we think they will be hyped for this game and play their best game in awhile and we think they have a great chance for the straight up win here. They have covered in three of the last four meetings and they won the last two in Chicago.

We just think that this is a bad spot for the Warriors on Thursday night. They are coming off a Wednesday game against the Clippers, their most hated rival. They played a real strong game against the Clippers last night and now they travel here to a Utah team that will be going all out for the win and had the night off Wednesday. This line looks inflated to us, like most of the Warriors lines are, and we think this might be a spot for a slip up after an intense effort at Staples Center on Wednesday night. You also have to wonder why Steve Kerr kept the starters in so long last night when the game was well in hand. We think that will hurt the visitors tonight against a rested team. Utah played the Warriors tough in Utah last year and we expect the same kind of effort tonight.

We like the Clippers this season and have taken them a lot so far during our hot start to the season. But we still think the Warriors are a lot better team and it’s real rare to get them with this low of points as we see this line here tonight. These teams don’t like each other. Everyone is saying this season how maybe the Clips have supplanted the Warriors as the top team in the west and how they are the only team with the capabilities to beat Golden State in the playoffs. Golden State really enjoys beating up on the Clippers without any extra motivation, but give this team a chip to put on their shoulder and we think their A Game will come out tonight. They always seem to give their best effort against LAC and they really have the ability to get into their heads. Yes, the Clippers bench is better than that of the Warriors but we still think the starters for Golden State are much better and in better form right now as well. The Clips have two more losses at home than the Warriors do on the road. The Clippers haven’t covered in four straight here at Staples Center. The Warriors have won six straight in this series and we think they will be very motivated tonight, and if both teams bring their A Games we think Golden State covers this number pretty easily.

10 Unit Play. #558 Take Duke over Florida (9:30 pm ESPN) Duke has already lost once at the Garden this season and I just do see them losing a pair of nonconference games. The Blue Devils are starting to get healthy and will only improve as more players come available from their roster. Florida is off to a strong start this season at 7-1 but this will be their toughest test of the season thus far. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against ACC teams. The Blue Devils have yet to record a quality win this season (Michigan State does not count) so it is important that they take care of Florida and I expect them to do it by double digits. 

The Bulls are a very average 6-6 away from home this season while the Pistons have been excellent on their home court at 7-3. The Bulls are slumping right now. They got blown out in Dallas and then laid an egg last night as a decent favorite at home to Portland. This will be their fourth game in five nights and a back-to-back, not a good recipe for a slumping team to get back on the winning track. Detroit has won five of their last seven and they have covered in all the wins. They have also played well against the Bulls, covering in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs. We think that this spread is way too low.

10 Unit Play. #356 Take Green Bay Packers over Houston Texans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Packer defense showed some signs off life last week against Philadelphia and now they face a much easier challenge this week against Houston. The Texans have struggled on the road being outscored by an average of 14 points per game (27-13). Green Bay still has a path to the playoffs by winning the division and for them to accomplish that this is a must win game. QB Rodgers picked apart the strong Philadelphia defense last Monday and Houston has been playing without JJ Watt for the entire season leaving a major void in the front seven. This is the first home game for Green Bay since November 6th and it now appears that this season is not lost for them. The Packers just have a major edge at the quarterback position with Rodgers compared to Brock Osweiler, who has struggled mightily this season. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 

Portland is a very public play tonight but we will side with the sportsbooks in this one. The Blazers can score, but they can’t defend. But defense is what Miami does so well, and the Heat will be able to keep this one within striking distance on the strength of their defense. The Heat have actually scored 100+ in four straight games, so we think they can hang offensively here tonight. The same probably can’t be said for the Blazers defense. This Portland team is just not very good right now and they have covered in just three of their last 10 games. We expect a very close game here, and either way we should be fine getting this many points.

10 Unit Play. #813 Take Gonzaga over Arizona (5:30 pm ESPN) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. It is now or never for this Gonzaga team against Arizona. The Bulldogs have lost three straight times to Arizona including blowing double digit leads in the last two meetings. But this just is not the same Arizona team as in years past. They are likely only going to have seven scholarship players for this game with Parker Jackson Cartwright (high ankle sprain) and Allonzo Trier (eligibility) very questionable for this game. Gonzaga just reloaded despite losing some top frontcourt players from last season. They picked up three transfers from power five conferences that allowed them to play the same style and not miss a beat. Even in the games they have been challenged (Florida & Iowa State), they were in control of those games only to let their opponent back in late. I think they have learned from those games and will not make the same mistake with Arizona today. This game means a lot to Mark Few as Gonzaga is starting to get some tournament success and wants to be considered as the top team in the West. Playing in Los Angeles at a spot Arizona has not had good success should also benefit the Zags. Arizona is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Gonzaga is 14-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or under. 

The Clippers have lost three straight, including a blowout loss at Indiana and an inexplicable OT loss at Brooklyn last time out. We just think that this team had a little loss of focus but we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back, and we still think that this is one of the best teams in the NBA right now. They should be as focused as ever to avoid a four-game losing streak and get back on track. We think this is a high priority game for LA while this is just another big TV game for the Cavs. All media reports indicate LA is in a good mental state despite the losses, and Blake Griffin will be fresh here since he sat out the Brooklyn loss for rest. Even after dropping three straight ATS the Clippers are still 10-9 ATS, a much better mark than the Cavs at 6-9-1. Doc Rivers went ballistic after a tech in the Brooklyn game and was ejected. He ripped into his team in the press afterwards. We think the squad will respond with an inspired effort here. We had this game at PK with a lean to the Clippers at that number, so we think getting this many points adds a lot of value as we see the road team getting the win.

10 Unit Play. #579 Take Saint Mary’s over Stanford (11 pm PAC-12 Network) The Cardinal finally have a competent coach but Maples Pavilion is no longer a tough venue to play in. Stanford played in Orlando over the weekend and that cross-country trip will take its toll on them. The Gaels have been in the Bay Area the last couple of weeks taking care of lesser opponents at home and they know the importance of this game with regards to receiving an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Stanford has been one of the most disappointing teams over the last decade and it will take new coach Jerod Haase more than a season to change this culture. Saint Mary’s is loaded with talent especially on the offensive end of the floor and they have had only one competitive game this season. That was against Dayton, a game which they led big only to let the Flyers back into the game. That will not happen tonight, as the Gaels will cruise to a double-digit victory. Saint Mary’s is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against PAC-12 teams. Stanford is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a greater than .600 winning percentage.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Suns have been great in this series, covering in 11 of the last 15 matchups and in five of the last seven in Phoenix. The Hawks have not played well on this long road trip, having lost three of four, and this is the last game of the trip and no doubt they will be thinking of home. This is just a bad spot for the road team and they are laying too many points here. The Suns have been a feisty club at 10-8 ATS this season. They have been playing better than oddsmaker expectations and they have had two nights off heading into this contest while the Hawks will be playing their third game in four nights. A lot of signs here pointing to a Suns cover, not to mention that this line is inflated in the first place because the Hawks are the “name” team here while no one but sharps want to bet on the Suns.

Charlotte has won two of the last three meetings and they have covered in three of the last four. They have revenge here as the Grizzlies came into Charlotte last week and won by 15. The game was out of hand early and we have no doubt the Hornets want to make up for that bad performance. The Hornets have had a tough schedule lately and have lost a couple OT games, but this team is much better than the Grizzlies and we think they should be favored by 4.5 or 5.0 in this matchup. Both teams are somewhat banged up on this matchup but the Hornets should get Nic Batum back tonight, and he will give the Hornets a shot in the arm.

10 Unit Play. #254 Take Tennessee Titans over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bears have been decimated by injuries this season and this is likely the last month and a half for QB Jay Cutler and HC John Fox. Tennessee did not play well last week in Indianapolis (place they never win) but should find it much easier to put points on the board in Chicago on Sunday. Chicago is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and they are just playing out the string hoping against hope they can keep their remaining players healthy. Tennessee is scoring over 31 points per game in their last seven games and Chicago will have trouble keeping up with them. Chicago is 3-11 ATS when playing a home game following a loss in their previous game. The Bears did not score a point in the last 30 minutes at MetLife Stadium and I do not see things getting any better today. The crowd will not be engaged early and I just do not see the Bears giving them a reason to cheer.  

We leaned Charlotte last night when these teams met up in New York and we are glad we didn’t pull the trigger as they lost in OT. Revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in the NBA, but it does come into play at certain times, and these back-to-back, home-and-home situations are definitely one of those where it does. When a team loses the night before then they play again, especially back at home, the team that lost before is normally almost an automatic play for us. And the line is just what we expected here for us to pull the trigger on the Hornets for a comfortable win.

The Bucks have had three nights of rest coming into this one and we think that will make all the difference tonight. Toronto is on the last game of a 5-game road trip and they have to be thinking more about home tonight than this opponent, and we don’t think they will give max effort in this game. This will be their fourth game in six nights and the last one on the road, and we don’t think this is a good spot for them. They have lost four of six overall and needed OT to get by Denver, so they are not in the best form right now. Milwaukee has been playing well at home with a 5-3 SU record, and we think they will challenge for the win here tonight as well.