Sports Picks & Predictions

10 Unit Play. #602 Take Duke over Wisconsin (Monday 9:18 pm CBS) It end’s tonight! Duke and Coach K will win their fifth National Championship tonight in Indianapolis. Wisconsin is coming off a landmark victory against Kentucky on Saturday night and to their fans that felt like winning a National Championship. Duke has yet to be tested in the NCAA Tournament winning five games with relative ease (Utah game was not as close as the final would indicate). That should bode well for them tonight against a team that already beat in December in Madison. Unlike Kentucky, Duke has shooters that can exploit this suspect Wisconsin defense. Wisconsin will have their moments in this game but in the end Coach K will be too much for them to overcome after such an emotional victory on Saturday night. Duke has won five straight games against Big 10 teams.  

Slow schedule in the NBA docket today because of the National Championship Game in college hoops but this lone game does offer some nice value. The Blazers are already without Wesley Matthews as he is out for the season and tonight they will be without Aldridge, Kaman and Batum as well. This team is already thin so we think they will really struggle tonight. Of course the oddsmakers have added these absences into the line, but we don’t think they gave them enough value. Brooklyn has been playing very well lately save for that embarrassing loss to the Hawks last time out but we are confident this team will bounce back tonight with a strong performance.

Historically the Jazz don’t meet oddsmaker expectations in this series. They are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings and 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings here in Sacramento. The Jazz come in on a back-to-back and have to play it on the road here tonight in a spot where they have not had a lot of success. We don’t see it going to well for them. The starters played heavy minutes last night for the Jazz and we think that will take its toll here as the Kings score a comfortable win at home.

The Hawks have had a few nights off so they will play all the starters here. They have dropped two of three games and will be eager to get back on the winning track as this team does not want to enter the playoff on a skid. So we think we will see the normal Atlanta Hawks team here and not the team that is set with the No. 1 seed and is coasting to the playoffs. Also this is a possible first-round opponent for the Hawks so they will want to play well to gain a psychological advantage over the Nets in the case they do play in the first round or even later. A Nets win would have the opposite effect. We just think Atlanta brings its A Game tonight and when at their best they are tough to play.

10 Unit Play. #824 Take Duke over Michigan State (Saturday 6:05 pm TBS) Michigan State = Indianapolis Colts. Much like Indy, Michigan State does not belong in the Final Four and they will be exposed in a big way on Saturday night in Indianapolis, IN. The Spartans were fortunate to be bracketed into the East Region where the top seeds where exposed as frauds and the Elite 8 battle features two teams with major flaws. Tom Izzo is given a lot for being Mr. March and this will be his 7th Final Four but one must remember he has only won one championship and advance past this round just two times in six attempts. He also has a terrible record against Coach K winning just one game in nine attempts including a double digit loss this season in Indianapolis of all places. Duke just has better talent at four of the five positions on the court and this is not even a typical Michigan State team that rebounds well and makes free throws (they do neither of these). Duke is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Big 10 teams. Michigan State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday. 

10 Unit Play. #707 Take Stanford over Miami (Thursday 9 pm ESPN) Have not had much luck going against Miami with two ridiculous losses their last two games when Richmond and Temple and big leads only to go ice cold in the second half. Miami will likely be without Tonye Jekiri and Angel Rodriguez and that is a major void that this team will not be able to overcome. Stanford has had recent success in the NIT of late winning it in 2012 and I was impressed with how they finished the game last night after blowing a big lead in the first half against Old Dominion. Miami has gotten off to poor starts in the last two games and without a big man in the middle I do not see them making a second half rally in this contest. Stanford is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games. Miami is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played on Thursday. 

We all remember what happened last time these teams played in Miami as the Heat won by 14 last month. Miami is a team that plays hard almost every night and we just think that this is too many points. The Heat were blown out last time they played at home against the Spurs and we don’t see this team having two results in a row like this. They have some extra motivation because of going against LeBron James, and that motivation is not a two-way street in this situation because Miami has all the motivation because James spurned them.  We see the Heat competing tonight and think they will finish within double digits here.

The Clippers played their biggest rival last night at home in the Golden State Warriors and they gave it everything they had in that game. It’s going to be tough for them to turn around and play well in this back-to-back against a very good Portland club. This will probably be a first-round playoff preview and the Blazers can do a lot to assure that series has four games in Portland with a win here, and we think they bring their A Game against a Clippers team that has to be worn out after that game last night. LA is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings and we think this line is too short for the Blazers once again.

The Clippers are playing as well as any team in the league right now and the gap between these teams has pretty much closed. The Warriors have played well all season but the Clippers had some troubles with chemistry early in the season and have not played up to their potential. They sure are now because they have won seven straight and they have a very manageable schedule down the stretch and could move up to the No. 2 seed if any teams above them falter. You might think the Warriors would want them as the No. 2 seed so they would not have to face their rival until the conference finals. The Clippers won here easy on Christmas Night and they will be extra motivated for this game tonight while the Warriors have their playoff fate sewn up and don’t have any real reason to give max effort here.

10 Unit Play. #770 Take Temple over Miami (Tuesday 7 pm ESPN) Miami just has no business being in New York City for the NIT Semi-Finals. They are coming off a miracle comeback last week in Richmond but I do not see Temple giving them this game like the Spiders did. Miami will likely be without Angel Rodriguez and this leaves a major void in their offensive game that will be tough to overcome. The Owls have been solid of late losing just one game in the last month and they have won their last two NIT games in convincing fashion. Take the better team that is closer to home in the first game of the night on Tuesday. 

Boston is the better and more consistent team here and they are coming off a bad loss yesterday against the Clippers and will be looking for a strong game here in a game that is very winnable tonight. The Hornets have been in pretty much a freefall over the last several weeks and they have won just three of their last 11 games. They have had a pretty manageable overall schedule, too, so they have been playing well below expectations. Just think that the Celtics will play hard here after getting embarrassed by the Clippers and their old coach at home on Sunday and they will put forth a much better effort here.

The wrong team is favored here. The Thunder, even with the injuries, are a better team than the Suns and will be desperate for a win here after blowing that game last night in Utah. This game is crucial for the Suns playoff hopes and we expect the better team to rise up here and this is kind of like a playoff game for both teams tonight and we would expect the Thunder to do very well in a playoff series if these teams were hypothetically to play. The last two meetings went to overtime but we see the Thunder pulling way for this win in the fourth quarter tonight.

10 Unit Play. #722 Take Duke over Gonzaga (Sunday 5:05 pm CBS) The Bulldogs are in unfamiliar territory as they have never reached the Elite 8 under Mark Few. Duke has the tradition and the legardary coach and they will not be denied another trip to the Final Four. Duke has the big man down low that can offset the bigs for Gonzaga and I still believe this Gonzaga team in not mentally tough. Duke will be able to dominate the guard position and Kevin Pangos does not seem to be himself for much of the season. Gonzaga is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 games against ACC teams. Duke is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. 

Utah was a nice story there for awhile as they were playing great defense and winning a lot of games while covering a lot of spreads. Not so much lately. This team has now lost four straight, failing to cover any of those numbers. They have given up 106 or more in three of those games (one OT game). OKC should come into this game angry after one of their worst games of the season last time out against San Antonio in a near 40-point blowout. But they are rested as they have had two nights off and this will be a back-to-back for Utah and third game in four nights. This all adds up to an OKC double-digit win.

10 Unit Play. #513 Take Arizona over Wisconsin (Saturday 6:09 pm TBS) It is Arizona’s time! Coach Sean Miller comes of the list of beat coaches to never make a Final Four on Saturday as his Wildcats will knock out Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles. Arizona has the size and strength to beat Wisconsin on the block and the Badgers have not been playing their best basketball down the stretch. Frank Kaminsky has not been playing to his Player of the Year level of late and without him playing at his best, Wisconsin cannot beat the elite teams. Unlike North Carolina, Arizona can play defense and will not miss key free throws down the stretch. Arizona cleared their hurdle on Thursday facing a former assistant coach that knew many of their sets. That will not be the case Saturday afternoon as Wisconsin will not know what hit them playing a team that is desperate to reach the Final Four. Arizona is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game. 

10 Unit Play. #884 Take Duke over Utah (Friday 9:45 pm CBS) Duke is not losing this game straight-up. The committee set up the South Region with the intention for Duke to advance to the Final Four and I do not see Utah altering that path. Georgetown had Utah on the ropes before they went ice cold over the last 5 minutes of that game and Utah emerged victorious. That will not happen against Duke and Coach K. Duke has the better player at four of the five positions on the court and Utah has not seen a big man with this much offensive skill like Jahlil Okafor. Duke has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Neither team has been playing well lately but the Pacers are the better team and we had them handicapped as a slight favorite in this game so we think there is some nice value in this one. The Pacers have won eight of the last nine meetings between these clubs, including the last two, and we see no reason why they won’t win again tonight. The Bucks were one of the best ATS teams in the league for most of the year but the oddsmakers adjusted and this team hit a skid around the same time and they have since dropped down the rankings a bit. We think they are overvalued again tonight and expect a strong showing from the road team.

10 Unit Play. #810 Take Wisconsin over North Carolina (Thursday 7:47 pm TBS) This game means more to Wisconsin as they still hold a grudge against Coach Roy Williams for a statement he made about the 2000 Wisconsin team that made the Final Four. Throw in the fact that Kennedy Meeks will likely not play (definitely will not be 100%) and I just do not see North Carolina behind able to match-up well with Wisconsin. Carolina will have some moments in this game but in the end Wisconsin will pull away late and win this game by 9-12 points. Carolina has covered just 1 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Wisconsin is 12-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 neutral site games. 

The Spurs have been playing well as of late but we still think that this team is overrated and think that this team is not as good as the version of the Spurs we have seen the last couple years. But they are getting respect from the oddsmakers, that’s for sure. After a couple good games the lines get inflated quick on this team, and we think that is the case tonight. Dallas is coming in off two bad losses. But just when you count this team out they will put together four or five wins in a row. Dallas has covered seven of the last nine in this series and they always seem to bring their A Game against their rival from the Lone Star State.

Utah is getting the job done on defense, not offensively, and we just don’t think they can score enough to cover this huge line tonight. Minnesota always seems to play well here in Utah and they have covered in all of the last four meetings. The total here is really low, so that makes the points all that more valuable when you are getting a big number like these. The Timberwolves have a lot of players that are questionable tonight and if we get some luck with the injuries this line will have even more value. But regardless we just think this number is simply too big and think the Wolves will play well enough to come within double digits.

10 Unit Play. #728 Maryland over West Virginia (8:40 pm TNT) We will again ride the Terrapins but unlike Friday they just have to win the game tonight and we do not need to worry about the spread. West Virginia just does not have the offensive firepower that Maryland does and I feel that talent will eventually win out. Maryland was never in danger of losing to Valparaiso on Friday despite the close score and expect them to play better on Sunday night. West Virginia is a tough team to officiate and they really try and muck up the game but that usually does not work in the NCAA Tournament where games are called more tightly. West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Big 10 teams. 

These games always seem to be close in this series and we expect the same here on Sunday. Boston has been great at covering lines lately but the oddsmakers have overadjusted on this team, at least for this game, and the value is on the underdog here. Detroit has now covered three of their last four games and they looked very solid on Saturday in a blowout win over the Bulls. Sometimes in the NBA success is all about confidence and we think the Pistons will play with the same swagger they displayed against the Bulls yesterday. This is a very winnable game for Detroit, and even if they don’t get the SU win we do expect a real close game here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #526 Take Georgetown over Utah (7:45 pm CBS) I still believe Utah is not playing their best basketball to down the stretch and should have be favored by this many points against a more than capable Georgetown team. Utah losing to Arizona has left a lasting image on this team and Georgetown has the size to dominate in the paint. The Hoyas dominated Eastern Washington and expect them to take down their second straight opponent from the West on Saturday. Georgetown is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 nonconference games. 

The Pacers have had a lot of good fortune in this series lately and have won five straight and covered four of those five games. We think this one is a mismatch once again. The Nets gave everything they had last night in a triple-OT win over Milwaukee and we don’t think they have much left in the tank here.  Not only is this game a back-to-back after that marathon on Friday night but this will be the Nets third game in four nights and also this team is just not very good! The Pacers went from a long winning streak to their current long losing streak but they have had a very tough schedule lately and we expect a strong bounce-back effort from them tonight against a team that has energy levels running on E.

10 Unit Play. #836 Take Maryland over Valparaiso (Friday 4:40 pm TNT) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. The Terrapins are angry at their seed and expect them to take out their frustrations in a big way on Friday afternoon in Columbus, OH. Valparaiso was the best team in the Horizon League but most of their damage came at home. They did not perform well in their conference tournament and were lucky to escape with home wins against Cleveland State in the semi-finals and Green Bay in the finals. Green Bay gagged in that game scoring just 5 points in the last 11:42 of that game. Maryland has too many weapons for Valparaiso to handle and this was clearly the second best team in the Big 10 all season long (they did beat Wisconsin as well). Prior to blowing a big lead to Michigan State in the Big 10 semi-finals, Maryland had won 8 straight games and I expect them to bounce back in a big way. Maryland has the better player on the court at four of the five positions and Valpo has not an NCAA Tournament Game since the Bryce Drew shot in 1998. In those five games since then they have lost by 22, 27, 15, 27, and 11 points. We will gladly lay this small number of points with the much better team from the Big 10. This is a chance for Coach Mark Turgeon to solidify himself as the coach of Maryland and if he can make a run to the Sweet 16 he should be entrenched as the coach for quite some time. This is the first time he has made the NCAA Tournament at Maryland and he does not to be a quick one and done. Valpo is 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. Maryland has a neutral site victory against Iowa State and they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games played at neutral sites. 

New Orleans has been a solid underdog all season, and while they are not an underdog here they probably would have been a couple weeks ago and probably aren’t tonight just because of the simple fact that this team is a must-play in the underdog role and the public has caught on. We still think there is great value here as the Pelicans are the better team and they are in better form. The Suns were a nice story last year but this team has regressed and is not as good. And they seem to have some internal issues that are holding them back. This is an important game for both teams’ playoff hopes, and we think the cream rises to the top here tonight in Phoenix.

Detroit has to be one of the most shaky road favorites tonight out of this NBA season. They surprised Memphis last night with a home victory, but before last night they had lost 10 straight and this is clearly a team that is not giving a consistent effort on a nightly basis. Philly is playing hard almost every night and they have won two of five and have recent overtime losses to Chicago (home) and OKC (road). They have covered in four of their last seven games and this team is undervalued again tonight and we expect them to win this game at home. They have won and covered three of the last four in this series and we see that trend continuing tonight.

The Timberwolves are playing as bad as anybody in the league right now. They come in on a back-to-back and are another team playing their third game in four nights. They got smoked by the Spurs on the road last night and were not competitive at all. It seems like half their team is on the injury report tonight and we just don’t see how they rise up and play a competitive game here. We thought last night was a spot where they would cover but they looked awful. This road trip really seems to be wearing on this team and there should be a real lack of warm bodies on their bench tonight depending on how their injury situation shakes out at gametime, but this just doesn’t look like a spot where they will be competitive against a Brooklyn team that really needs a win.

The Spurs have been playing well lately and the T-Wolves really haven’t, but that does not change the fact that this line is overinflated and flat out wrong. We are going with the value on the Wolves tonight. Minnesota might be getting back some key players tonight and we think the Spurs are overrated right now. The Spurs are just 5-7 ATS when laying a big line like this and they just don’t have the killer instinct to cover massive lines like this that they did last year. We see this as a very competitive game and the Wolves are not as bad of a team as this line would indicate.

10 Unit Play. #894 Take SMU over UCONN (3:15 pm ESPN) It ends tonight! There will not be a repeat national champion this season as UCONN will get bounced from the AAC Tournament on Sunday by the clear cut best team in the league. Tulsa had UCONN on the ropes for most of the game before they gaged in typical Frank Haith fashion. SMU is coached by a legend in Larry Brown and he will not let that happen to his Mustangs on Sunday. This is a rubber match for these two teams but SMU will not be fazed by playing this game in Hartford. Talent wins out and we collect big with SMU as they move up to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Sunday. 

The Suns are just not playing well lately. They have scored a few wins lately, but those have come against some bad teams. They have lost by double-digits in their last four against stronger teams. And this team made some questionable moves at the trade deadline and that has really hurt the morale of this young team. Atlanta is playing with a lot of confidence and they have all season. This team does not take many nights off and they treat every game like a playoff game. We don’t see any reason they can’t win this one by double-digits, and we are getting a great line here tonight because the Hawks are the road team, but the Suns have not had much of a home-court advantage recently anyways.

10 Unit Play. #859 Take North Carolina over Virginia (7 pm ESPN) Conference Tournament  Just not been a big believer in Virginia this season and feel they will have trouble beating North Carolina in Greensboro with a 100% Justin Anderson. Virginia is extremely well coached and they have players that fit their system but North Carolina just has better players. Virginia let a bad Florida State team hang around in the second half and I just do not believe they are firing on all cylinders at the moment (they lost to Louisville in their regular season finale). Carolina got good production from Kennedy Meeks on Thursday and I expect him to be even better on Friday. Carolina shot the ball well from the three point line on Thursday going 5-11 and if they do that again they will beat Virginia straight-up. North Carolina has covered 5 straight neutral site games.  Virginia is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory in their previous game. The crowd propels North Carolina into the Semi-Finals and we collect in the process as well. 

You aren’t going to see betting value on the Cavs too much late this season, but against other good teams there is a chance for it, and that is the situation tonight. The Spurs have won six straight and looked good doing it, but if you look closely at their recent schedule they have played a lot of flawed teams. Phoenix is playing awful lately. Two of those wins came against Sacramento. Denver has been playing better and covered the big line. And the Bulls are dealing with a lot of injuries. Toronto is the only real quality win in that bunch. But it does not take much for the bookies to make an adjustment on this team and we think this line is short tonight as the Cavs are the overall better team right now and they should be very motivated for a win here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #516 Take Indiana over Northwestern (6:30 pm ESPN 2) The Hoosiers have played themselves onto the bubble losing a pair of home games to close out the regular season. This now becomes a must win game for them if they have any hopes of making the big dance. The Wildcats played better down the stretch including winning four straight but they have now lost two of their last three and could have lost all three of them (beat Michigan in double OT). Indiana will also have revenge on their minds, as Northwestern beat them by 7 points on February 25th. Indiana will have a strong fan base in Chicago and this is a coaching career defining moment for Tom Crean. He needs to win this game and expect him to get it in a big way. Northwestern is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Take the chalk in this contest. 

Another great spot for the Pelicans as an underdog. This team is one of the best underdog bets in the NBA and is 21-9 ATS in the underdog role this season. Yes, the Pelicans some in on a back-to-back, but at 12-3 ATS in the second night of a back-to-back that does not worry us too much. This Pelicans team is just overall the better team and we expect them to win this game tonight. New Orleans is making a playoff push and this team has been playing solid basketball recently despite some injuries and we think this is another great spot for the underdog. With their success in back-to-backs we handicapped this game at pickem and we think New Orleans pulls away to win a close game late in the fourth quarter.

10 Unit Play. #674 Take Valparaiso over Green Bay (7 pm ESPN) This is the rubber match for this winner take all Horizon League Championship. Valpo won the regular season title and should have beaten Green Bay all three games but I fully expect them to take two of three from the Phoenix. The Crusaders beat the Phoenix by 4 points in their last match-up and that game was not as close as the final score would indicate. Valpo lead by 13 points in that game with under five minutes to play and Keifer Sykes had just 18 combined points in their two meetings. Valpo should be able to handle him again and I just do not believe Green Bay has enough talent around him to him this game. Valpo went undefeated at home during Horizon League play and lost just one game of the season in northern Indiana. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Valpo is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. We will hit the quinella tonight collect with our futures bet and our side play. 

The Wizards have not been playing well lately, but the oddsmakers have really overadjusted here and the bright spot of the Wizards current struggles is that there is finally some value here in this team. We had the Wizards handicapped as two-point favorites in this one and expect them to win this game. The Hornets enter this game on a back-to-back while the Wizards had a day of rest on Sunday. Bradley Beal has been out for awhile and that has been a big reason why the Wizards have not played well as he is such a crucial cog in the Wizards machine. He is expected back tonight and we think he will give this team a big boost. The Wizards are a desperate team and they have to start winning now. We think they will start to play better with Beal back in the lineup and we think there is value in this team right now as a buy low option. A few weeks ago the Wizards would have been road favorites here but because of their lack of ATS success the oddsmakers have adjusted their power rankings for this team. But this Wizards team is a very solid ballclub and one of the better teams in the east when at full health and they are just the better overall club in this matchup and we expect them to get a crucial road win tonight.

We thought the Clippers would come in around +5.5 for this game so we love the line here and think this is a very public number. We have had this game circled since November when the Warriors destroyed the Clippers 121-104 on this same court, and we are sure the Clippers have had this game circled since then as well. That was a game where the Clippers were slow out of the gate and the Warriors just hit the perfect storm and everything went right for them. They were hitting everything early. They built a huge halftime lead and the game was essentially over soon. The Clippers are a very prideful bunch. You can tell from the time when the whole Donald Sterling mess went down during the playoff series between these two teams last year. With an unprecedented distraction looming the Clippers were able to beat Golden State in that playoff series. In the second meeting this season LA came back on Christmas night and delivered their own beatdown of the Warriors at home, 100-86. We just think that these teams are not that far apart as the public would think or that the oddsmakers have predicted. LA has shown they are just fine without Blake Griffin and the team has really circled the wagons and started playing some of their best basketball of the season once he was lost. They know he will be back soon and there are enough good players on this team to succeed until he gets back, and Jamal Crawford too. This team is 7-4 since Griffin went out, and they have had as tough of a schedule as anyone in the league during that stretch. But this is a huge rivalry game and with the Clippers well rested with three nights off prior to this game we think they will be on their A Game here this afternoon. The Warriors and Clippers are Nos. 1 and 2 in the NBA for offensive production, so we know LA can hang with Golden State on the offensive end. And this team can play defense when it applies itself. And with the rest they have had and the motivation for this game as a big underdog we think they will have a great defensive game here. Just think that this line is way too large for an ultra-motivated Clippers team today and we expect a very close game here.

10 Unit Play. #629 Take Iowa State over TCU (8:30 pm ESPN News) I believe that the Cyclones have underachieved a little bit in a very tough conference but I fully expect them to close out the season with two straight wins. Iowa State is riding high all week after coming back from a 20 point deficit to beat Oklahoma on Monday. TCU has improved this season but they are not ready to compete in the Big 12 where they are just 4-13. That includes a 7 game losing streak in January. Granted they have hung tough in many of these games but eventually losing takes its toll on them and they are ready for this season to end. The Cyclones won the first meeting of the season by 17 points and TCU is just 1-10 against ranked opponents this season. Iowa State has won all five meetings conference match-ups with TCU by double digits. Throw in the fact that TCU does not play on campus this season due to renovations to Daniel–Meyer Coliseum and thus much of their home court edge is lost since this game is being played at Wilkerson-Greines Activity Center. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. I see Iowa State winning this game and that should mean the odds greatly favor us in covering the spread.  

You always have to pay special attention to the Pelicans when in the underdog role. They have been one of the best dogs in the league this season and are 21-9 ATS when getting points. We think this is another great spot for them as a home dog tonight. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back, but the Pelicans are at home so they have a big advantage here over the road team. Memphis won last night while the Pelicans lost, so the motivation is also clearly in New Orleans’ favor not to mention they are in a precarious position in the playoff race and need to play hard in every game down the stretch. They have the opportunity here to knock a team above them down a peg while moving up themselves. We also think that the Pelicans match up very well here and expect them to win this game. Memphis has been overrated by the oddsmakers lately and have covered in only one of their last six games. New Orleans has covered in five of their last eight, but those three ATS losses came in their last three so oddsmaker adjustments have created value here. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings at home in this series and 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall.

10 Unit Play. #505 Take Wisconsin over Minnesota (7 pm ESPN) Many may believe Minnesota will go all out to win this game and make a run into the NCAA Tournament. But that is not the case as Minnesota is not even on the bubble and Wisconsin will not take them lightly. Minnesota beat the last year at the Barn and played decent against them this season in Madison. Wisconsin clobbered Michigan State in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate (yes we did get backdoored). Wisconsin still has a chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and thus avoid being in Kentucky’s region. They cannot afford another loss and expect them to get it in a big way behind Frank Kaminsky and company. Minnesota is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Big 10 games. Wisconsin pounded Minnesota in the Big 10 Tournament and that is how I see this game going as well. 

The Spurs are back from their rodeo trip and had the worst trip they have ever had as they really struggled. But they did win their last two of the tip, a blowout in Phoenix and an 11-point win in Sacramento against this same Kings club. Forget about revenge – the Kings have so many more problems to deal with right now than dwelling on a loss.  San Antonio has won most of the games these teams have played and Sacramento rarely gets their revenge in this series. The Spurs really need to focus and get a leg up on their playoff positioning and we expect a top effort out of the defending champs at home against an opponent that is extremely vulnerable to a blowout.

Both teams have been very lousy lately, but we just think that Denver has some nice value getting points at home. The Bucks have been a great bet all season but normally they are getting points. But now that they are in the favorite role they have been struggling. The Bucks have covered in only two of their last 11 games. Denver has not been much better lately, but they are getting points at home and we just think there is great value here tonight. The Nuggets finish a five-game homestand tonight and they are winless so far. They had a tough stretch of games during this homestand, and this one tonight might be their best chance for a win. The Bucks are a bit banged up coming into this game as well, and they have traditionally not done well against oddsmaker expectations over the years here as they are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Denver.

10 Unit Play. #540 Take Missouri over Auburn (9 pm SEC Network) Kim Anderson knew he was taking over a major rebuilding job when he took over as head coach of Missouri, where he played college basketball. Missou has won just one game since January 8th and Coach Anderson does not want to finish out the season without another win. This is his chance for a victory and his Tigers should be able to get it in a big way. The Auburn Tigers are reeling as well in year one under Bruce Pearl and they have been blown out in four straight games since beating Georgia on February 14th. They will also be without their second leading scorer for this game in Antoine Mason, as he will grieving the tragic loss of his father and former NBA player Anthony Mason. He had scored 24 and 29 points in two of his last three games and this is a gigantic loss for an already weak and undersized team. Missouri had 40 rebounds in their first meeting and that is where they have a major edge in this game. Auburn won the first meeting by 6 points but they shot 37 free throws in that contest and that will not happen tonight on the road. Auburn is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played on Tuesday. Missou has bounced back well after they have gotten blown out going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a in their previous game of more than 20 points. 

Game of the Week:

The Suns have been awful lately and they are just 1-7 in their last eight road games with the only win coming against the Nuggets, a team struggling even more than the Suns right now. This team is playing its worst stretch of basketball maybe in the last two seasons. They are coming off a 25+-point beatdown loss at home against the Spurs.  But they are getting a very public line tonight and we think the Heat are the play all the way here as we had them laying about 5 points in this matchup. We think the Heat match up well here and we expect their defense to shine tonight. We expect the Heat to hold the Suns well under the century mark, and the Heat are not the type of team that scores a ton of points themselves so we think they max out right around the century mark or maybe a little over against a weak Suns defense.

With Westbrook and Durant both out of the lineup for OKC this team is all the sudden very average, and they even played below that level for most of the start of the season with these guys out. The Lakers seem to play better when no one expects much from them, and we think they have a chance to score the upset here at home. We don’t see the Thunder doing anything on the offensive end tonight, and this team will have to rely on defense to keep this game close. We see the Lakers winning a close, low-scoring game here and LA has now covered in three of the last four matchups.

10 Unit Play. #828 Take Wisconsin over Michigan State (4 pm CBS) This is just not a typical Michigan State team with very little size and not great shooters. Wisconsin is upset about losing to Maryland on Tuesday and expect them to go all out to win this game by double digits. Michigan State is coming off an overtime loss to Minnesota and the odds makers are still giving this team too much respect. Wisconsin has the better player at 4 of the 5 positions of the court and this is a game Bo Ryan always gets up for. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Lay the wood on Sunday. 

10 Unit Play. #674 Take Fresno State over New Mexico (10 pm ESPN U) Just feel the line is way too low in this game. Fresno State has been a decent team since Cezar Guerrero came back into the line-up and they have some impressive wins against San Diego State, Boise State, and at Wyoming this week. New Mexico is just a sinking ship at the moment and as I said Tuesday in their game at Boise State may fans do not believe they have the right man as head coach in Craig Neal. New Mexico has lost seven straight games and their last three games they have not been competitive at all. Their 11 point loss against Boise State was not as close as it might indicate as they were down by 19 points 17 minutes into that game. I like Hugh Greenwood as a player and a person but he is not a dynamic scorer that can carry this team anywhere. New Mexico has lost 7 straight games and they have not covered the spread in any of those games as well. That is what this play comes down to, fading New Mexico much like we did last week fading Florida.  

We were on the Knicks last night in Detroit and they showed they can play with an OT win on the road. Once again we think they are getting too many points tonight. This is an NBA team, no matter that they lost Carmelo Anthony, and this team will fight hard tonight at home and show heart like they did last night. The Raptors are just not playing well right now. They have lost four straight and they failed to cover in any of those games. In the NBA sometimes it is all about confidence, and the Knicks will be brimming with it tonight after their win while the Raptors don’t have much right now and they will probably play a bit tight while the Knicks will come in with a nothing-to-lose attitude that will be enough to stay within 10 points in what should be a low-scoring game on Saturday night.

We think this is a great spot for the Pacers and a really bad one for the Cavs. Cleveland played in one of the marquee games of the season last night on national TV against the Warriors. They gave a lot of energy in that one and then had to travel to Indiana. Now they play a strong defensive team that has been playing very well overall. We see Cleveland wearing down here, especially in the second half. The Pacers are underrated right now and this team has won six of its last eight and covered in six of their last eight as well. They already beat the Cavs on this same court earlier in the month. We think they have a great chance to win this one as well.

10 Unit Play. #545 Take SMU over Memphis (9 pm ESPN 2) The Mustangs have been on a tear during American Conference play. They have only lost to one team since November 26th and are clearly the best team in the American Athletic Conference. To be honest most of SMU’s games have not been close and that includes a 14 point victory against Memphis when these teams met in January in Dallas. The Tigers have been playing at little better of late but wins against UCF and USF are not the same as betting SMU. Memphis has already lost four home games this season against teams like Tulane and Stephen F. Austin. SMU is 7-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 11 games. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Memphis is not making the NCAA Tournament and SMU is and they march on in this game. 

Getting the best team in the NBA getting points in national TV? Sign us up. Golden State has cooled off lately as they have been on the road a lot lately and they have been playing a mix of some lousy teams and some good ones. But they should bring their A-Game to this heavily-hyped matchup. We actually think that they should be the slight favorite in this one. Yes, the Cavs are good, but we don’t think they are on the same level of the Warriors. We also think the motivation is in the Warriors corner since the Cavs get a lot more publicity so this gives the Warriors motivation to prove they are the best team while we think this is just another national TV game for Cleveland. We think both teams play strong defense here on the national stage. We think both teams will be able to score but that this total is too high. We do think the Warriors will win this game.

No team is as bad as their last game in the NBA, and in the case of the Wizards no team is as bad as their last three games as the Wizards have not been playing well lately. But this is a very good team and we expect them to be up tonight for what is considered by most the best team in the NBA. We think a straight up win is not out of the question. The Warriors have not been dominant on the road lately, and in fact they have failed to cover five straight road games. They have let some teams that are much worse than the Wizards stick around during that stretch, and because of the team’s recent W/L record we think the bookies have overadjusted this line and there is some great line value here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #525 Take Akron over Buffalo (7 pm ESPN 3) The Zips just do not get blown out very much during MAC play. Their last five losses in the MAC have come by just a combined 14 points (less than 3 per game). Akron beat Buffalo in Ohio this season and I see this match-up going down to the wire as well. Buffalo has been a team I have been high on all season long and they have finally started to show some potential winning their last two games by double digits. But before that they lost three straight games including blowing a big halftime lead against Central Michigan. Buffalo will likely get out to a big first half lead but expect the Zips to crawl back into this affair and take it down to the wire. Buffalo is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. 

The Nuggets are not as bad of a team as they have looked lately, and we think they are in a good spot for a much-needed win tonight. The Nets are pretty much as lousy as the Nuggets but their record looks better because they play in the Eastern Conference where wins are more easy to come by. And Denver has had a really tough schedule lately with most of their games coming on the road or against tough opponents at home. This is one of their most winnable games in awhile, and we had the Nuggets listed as a slight favorite for this one when we handicapped the game. We think that this is a great chance for a Denver win and think this one could be a blowout for the home team.

The Wizards are also the much better team here. They have won three of four in this series and we think they win this one pretty easily today. Washington has not been playing well overall, but we see this one as a very winnable game tonight against a Detroit team they match up well against. A team is never as good or bad as their last game, and we think that sentiment will be on full display tonight as the Wizards will want to get the bad taste of their blowout loss to the Cavs out of their mouth while Detroit got a big home win over Chicago, and this team doesn’t string together too many winning streaks for a reason. We think there is a great chance for a Wizards blowout here.

The Pelicans have been horrible against the spread lately and have dropped four straight (they lost all of them and are coming in on a back-to-back after losing in Orlando last night). Miami looked really good in their win over the Knicks and basically did what they wanted in an effortless win. Both teams traveled last night, and that helps the home team here. The Heat are also 3-0-1 in their last four on the second night of a back-to-back, so we aren’t worried about fatigue here. New Orleans is a bit overrated in this one tonight and we had the Heat listed as the favorite by a couple points in this one as we expect them to cash this ticket with a straight up win as the home dog here tonight.

10 Unit Play. #534 Take LSU over Florida (1 pm CBS) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Florida has underachieved this season and now injuries are starting to take their toll on this team. Billy Donovan is a great coach and will have this team back into the NCAA Tournament next year but today they will be without Michael Frazier and Dorian Finney-Smith. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games and had to hang on for dear life on Wednesday against Vanderbilt at home. LSU is another team that is hard to figure out with some great wins and has head scratching losses but they will win this game by default. The Tigers already won by 18 points in Gainesville this year and when the Tigers win game they tend to win big. The Tigers last five wins have come by 11.4 points and I also see this as a double digit victory. This is a game LSU cannot afford to lose if they want to make the NCAA Tournament and I believe they will get it in a big way. Florida is 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games following a victory in their previous game. LSU is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous game. Both trends hold true today as the Tigers roar! 

Denver is a team that went into tanking mode at the trade deadline, and we think this lousy team will be mostly one to go against down the stretch. The Bucks are rested back at home, and this is the No. 2 ATS team in the league this season. This is a great team to bet on because they are under the radar and even when they cover many numbers the bookies don’t adjust the numbers a lot because public bettors still stay away from this team. We thought this number should have been a lot larger than this, and we expect a double-digit win from the home team tonight. These teams are polar opposites in the fact that the Bucks play hard every night while the Nuggets are big underachievers. Milwaukee plays strong defense and the Nuggets don’t shoot well, and this is a recipe for a blowout win for the home team, who entered the break strong winning three straight and eight of nine. Should be some extra motivation from the Bucks tonight, too, considering that Denver has an eight-game winning streak in this series. But this is the strongest Bucks team in that time and the worst Nuggets team, and we think the home team rolls.

10 Unit Play. #562 Take Saint Mary’s over Portland (11 pm) The Gales always seem to play second fiddle to the Bulldogs in the WCC but they usually earn double digits victories in the WCC and win close to all of their home game. Saint Mary’s already beat Portland by double digits this season in Oregon and I expect history to repeat itself on Thursday. The Pilots have been playing better basketball of late but they finish with BYU and Saint Mary’s (two of the top three teams) and I see them losing both of these games. Saint Mary’s has covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Thunder are just a better team, and with the rest both squads have had and both teams at their best, we think this is an OKC blowout. The Thunder have a lot of work to do in the stretch run of the season as currently they are on the outside looking in for the playoff picture. It is just a matter of time, however, until this team is in the playoff picture and they should be very motivated to play their best in every game. They won and covered four of five entering the break, and we think they continue that hot play tonight and for the forseeable future. We had this game handicapped around 8 with a lean to the Thunder at that number, so we think that this number is a real gift tonight. Dallas has won the last three meetings in this series, so we think a heavy serving of revenge is on the menu tonight.

6 Unit Play. #888 Take Indiana over Minnesota (7:30 pm BTN) Besides Wisconsin no Big 10 team is very good and I believe playing on the road for a second straight game will eventually catch up with the Gophers. Minnesota did not play great on offense against Iowa on Thursday but were able to take full advantage of a lack luster performance by Iowa. Indiana is coming off a tough game against Maryland and it is important for them to right the ship on Sunday in order to stay close to the top of the standing. Minnesota is 7-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 road games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

10 Unit Play. #620 Take Gonzaga over Pepperdine (8 pm ESPN 3) WCC Game of the Year! The Waves got off to a decent start this season but injuries have caught up with them and they are a sinking ship at the moment. Pepperdine has been blown out in their last two games against a pair of middle of the road WCC teams. Gonzaga would certainly not fall into that category, as they are well on their way to running the table in the WCC and earning a No. 1 seed come March. Gonzaga will dominate this game in all facets including down in the paint. The last close game Gonzaga played was in Malibu winning by just two points but this is a much different Pepperdine team from what they saw on January 15th. Gonzaga has covered 4 of their last 5 games at the Kennel. The odds makers just have not caught up to the current level of Pepperdine. 

10 Unit Play. #810 Take Valparaiso over Green Bay (7 pm ESPN 2) It is rare for us to have a college basketball selection on Friday but this one is too good to pass up. These are the two best teams in the Horizon League this season and one must remember that the winner of the league advances to the semi-finals of the conference tournament and also hosts the conference tournament. Since both teams are 9-2 in the league (as well as Cleveland State), this is a must win game for both. Valpo has been waiting for this rematch ever since January 21st when they lost at Green Bay by 1 point. Valpo had numerous chances to win that game but could not come through in the clutch. Neither team has a chance for an at large bid into the NCAA Tournament and Valpo will win this game at home. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Valpo is 19-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games played on Friday. 

Think this is a great spot for the home team tonight. The Bulls are streaking and have put together three straight wins, two by blowout, and they had the night off last night while the Cavs played an emotional game at home against Miami where LeBron went against his old running mates from the Heat. This sets up perfectly for the Bulls here tonight. The Cavs have been playing very well, but they have also had a pretty easy schedule. This is the toughest game they have had in awhile, and we think the Bulls want to pull out one more win before the teams take a break for the All-Star festivities and they also want payback for a blowout loss in Cleveland last month. In fact, the Cavs have won both meetings so far this season and we just don’t see them getting three in a row against this proud Bulls team.

10 Unit Play. #505 Take Minnesota over Iowa (7 pm BTN) BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR. We are granted a reprieve from our Big 10 GOY in football last season and now have the right side in this basketball rematch. Iowa is coming off two impressive victories against Michigan and Maryland and I just do not believe they will be able to follow that up with a third straight victory tonight in Iowa City against Minnesota. Iowa has never handled prosperity well under Fran McCaffrey and just when things appear to be going great they usually lay an egg in their next couple of games. That will happen tonight against Minnesota, a team that is just as talented as Iowa is. Playing in Iowa City has not been an advantage for the Hawkeyes this season, as they have already lost by double digits three times this season. Minnesota has a brutal start to the Big 10 season but they have righted the ship of late winning two straight games and they have the guards that can exploit a weak Mike Gesell. This game was a barnburner when these two teams met earlier this season in Minneapolis and that is how I see this game going as well. Iowa won the game by two points on a shot by Jerrod Uthoff. That was despite Iowa shooting 52% from the field and 50% from the three point line. I just do not believe Iowa can shot that well again on Thursday and thus they game will go down to the wire. The location does not even matter when these two teams met, it is going to be close. Iowa is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Thursday. Iowa should have easily made the NCAA Tournament last year but they could not close out games and thus fell to the first four and that is how I see their finish going in 2015 as well.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

The Spurs really look like they are ready for the all-star break. This team is just not playing well right now. They have been doing enough to win games, but they have not looked good doing it and have fallen well short of bookie expectations in covering in only one of their last nine games. Detroit has won and covered in four of six games, and they have been playing pretty well lately. They also have covered in six of the last seven meetings, so they play well in this series. We really think that the Pistons win this one straight away.

10 Unit Play. #730 Take St. Bonaventure over Massachusetts (7 pm) The Bonnies are coming off back to back impressive wins against Davidson and VCU and some many feel they are due for a letdown tonight against UMASS. I am not one of those people and feel the Bonnies are the more talented team in this affair and should be able to win this game by double digits at the Reilly Center. UMASS is 7-3 in the Atlantic 10 but they have played a very weak conference schedule and have not faced George Washington or VCU yet. Throw in the fact that St. Bonaventure already beat UMASS by 14 points in Amherst and this selection almost appears too good to be true. UMASS has been playing better of late but again one must consider the competition. St. Bonaventure is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. 

10 Unit Play. #551 Take Wisconsin over Nebraska (9 pm ESPN) Nebraska is just not very good this season and Wisconsin is ready to atone for their loss in Lincoln last season. That loss got Nebraska into the NCAA Tournament but they will not sniff an at-large big this season and their only chance is to win the Big 10 Conference Tournament next March. Nebraska has lost three of their last four games and I truly believe they were a one hit wonder last season catching lighting in a bottle. This team just cannot score enough points to keep up with Wisconsin at the moment. The Big 10 is just not any good this season outside of Wisconsin and the Badgers are not going to lose a game in the Big 10 the rest of this season. Wisconsin has already won at Michigan, at Iowa, at Marquette, and at California and Nebraska is very similar to those teams. Nebraska is 4-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 

We think the Hornets are the better team in this matchup. The Pistons might have an edge in talent on the court, but the Hornets have shown a lot better effort while Detroit has been a huge underachiever this season. The Hornets keep getting the job done despite injuries, and we think this is a great spot for them tonight and the price is right here. The Hornets dropped a one-point heartbreaker last time out against Indiana here at home. This is a team that has played with a lot of pride lately and we think that they won’t want to drop two straight at home. We also think that this will be a high-scoring game. The Hornets were able to surpass the century mark last time out against a very good Indiana defense, and the Pistons have been letting teams past the century mark on a regular basis and a lot of clubs are even getting in the 110+ area against them. They gave up 112 to a struggling Minnesota offense last time out and 114 to the Pacers earlier this month. The Hornets have a very good chance to surpass the century mark here.

OKC played a really hard-fought game against the Clippers for the Sunday matinee and now they have to go to the high altitude in Denver, the toughest place for teams to play a back-to-back. Teams are never as good as they looked the day before, and we think that the Nuggets will give the Thunder fits here in this game. OKC expended so much energy in that game yesterday they we can see them really running out of gas here in the second half and especially the fourth quarter. The Thunder have not played well here recently and are 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They have lost two straight in Denver, and we think the Nuggets will probably win this game straight up tonight.

 This is a good spot for the Kings. They have not been playing well lately but the lines are getting larger and larger and now there is some value here. The Suns have lost three of their last four overall with only a win over Utah on their recent resume. They just have no business being this many points favored over a talented Sacramento team that can beat any team on any night as long as they play well. And we think they will here tonight. The value is here as we see this as a close game that will go either way.

Huge letdown spot for the Pelicans as they got a buzzer beater 3-pointer from Anthony Davis to win the game at the last second. That was a wild game, and we were exhausted just watching it, so just think how the players must feel. The Bulls are coming in on a three-game losing streak and the last two games were really hard matchups, but this team has had two nights off and will be well-rested for this one and should be extra motivated to get back on the winning track while the Pelicans are probably feeling a little too full of themselves right now and this team is the type of team that can look great one night and awful the next. Very inconsistent. The Bulls have done their best work on the road this season, and we think they bring their A Game tonight and win this one pretty convincingly.

10 Unit Play. #594 Take Arizona State over Arizona (4:30 pm Fox) Arizona is just not an offensive juggernaut and much like we did fading San Diego State on Wednesday, we will take the points on Saturday afternoon with the home team. This game is pretty much all Arizona State has left to play for this season and expect an all-out effort in order to keep this game close and earn the victory. Herb Sendek also elevates his coaching for this game as he is 8-10 against Arizona (ASU was 1-22 against Arizona before he arrived) and has won 4 of the last 7 games in Tempe. Arizona has had a much better team in all of these 18 matches expect for one time and the Wildcats have a little mental hurdle playing in Tempe. Arizona State will be playing at home for the third straight game and they are well rested as they have not played a game since last Friday, January 30th, 2015. Arizona State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

We love what the Hawks have been doing, but in our opinion the Warriors have been even more impressive and you have to remember that the Hawks have a much easier overall schedule playing in the weaker East. The Warriors are as good as anyone in the league and we think they will show that tonight in a game they will be highly motivated for. The Hawks, in our opinion, are a team to go against for a couple games after their long winning streak ended recently. They beat the Wizards pretty handily last time out, but that Washington team is slumping. There have been no slumps with this Golden State team, and we think that they will dominate this game tonight.

10 Unit Play. #566 Take California over USC (11 pm FS1) Cal appears to have righted the ship with a pair of victories against the Washington schools last week and they should be able to knock out the worst team in the PAC-12 at home on Thursday. USC is in year two of a major rebuilding project and I just do not believe Andy Enfield is up to the challenge. He caught lighting in a bottle for a couple of weeks at Florida Gulf Coast and along with his hot wife parlayed that into a big time job at USC. Cal also have revenge in this game as USC’s only conference victory came against them one month ago. Since that victory the Trojans have lost six straight games. Jabari Bird is the best player on the court and he is starting to show some life after injuries plagued him for much of the season. He is scored 12 points in back to back games and expect another big effort from him tonight. 

This is one of those games where we will side with the sportsbooks. It seems as if they set this line low to attract Hornets money. But we think that the Wizards are the clear play here. They are the better team and are in a great bounce-back position after losing to the Hawks last night. This is kind of like when baseball players swing the bat with a weighted bat in the on-deck circle. The Hawks are the weighted bat in this situation and the better team should be able to dominate the Hornets tonight. This also sets up a great revenge spot since the Hornets beat the Wizards in DC a few nights ago, but Washington will make the necessary adjustments and win this game pretty comfortably.

10 Unit Play. #798 Take Nevada over San Diego State (10 pm ESPN 3) The Aztecs have righted the ship and are clearly the team to beat in the MWC but that says more about how bad the league is this season than how good SDSU is. Nevada is terrible but we will grab the double digits with them playing at Lawlor Events Center. San Diego State still is not an offensive juggernaut and this they have trouble scoring 70 points per game. Nevada hangs around for 40 minutes losing by 6-8 points. 

10 Unit Play. #545 Take Boise State over Utah State (9:45 pm CBSSN) Since joining the MWC the Smith Spectrum does not provide the same type of home court edge as it did in the WAC. Utah State is a bottom feeder team in the MWC and this will be the last season of longtime Coach Stew Morrill. The Broncos did not perform well during the nonconference portion of the season but they have turned it around of late winning five straight games including a win at New Mexico. The Broncos have figured out how to play without Anthony Drmic and they could make a run to the stop of the standing in the MWC. The Aggies lost most of their talent from last season. They have shown signs this year but they are young and not ready to play with a veteran Boise State team. Boise State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Utah State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning road record. 

Don’t know if Denver should be favored by this many over anyone right now but they definitely should not be on the road. The Sixers have been playing really hard and have covered in four straight games. They have won their last two home games where they beat other bad teams like this Denver team, and we think that they give the Nuggets a run for their money here again tonight. We love the way they played against a hot Cleveland team last night. This team seems to be coming together and playing as a team more lately and they is why we have seen some more success at the betting window from them. Denver is 0-3 ATS as a favorite of more than seven points this season, and we definitely don’t think they are deserving of this chalk tonight.

10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl 49, Sunday, 6:30 pm NBC) You can make a strong case for either side in this match-up and the line on this game is reflected in that. But it is almost impossible for teams to repeat in the NFL in this day and age and I do not see the Seahawks as the team that can break this trend. Seattle has a great defense when all parts of it are 100% but that will not be the case in this game as multiple plays are banged up for Seattle. New England is not Denver and I just do not see them laying down and not been physical in their own right. Denver had a soft coach and QB but New England has a 3-time Super Bowl Champion coach and quarterback and this is one that they want badly in order to prove their critics wrong. Seattle has been starting slow of late and Russell Wilson is coming off one of his worst games in his three year career against Green Bay two weeks ago. Once the Patriots smell blood they will go for the kill and not play conservatively like the Packers did against Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. 

10 Unit Play. #625 Take Purdue over Northwestern (6 pm ESPN U) the Matt Painter Magic has long disappeared but Northwestern should not be favored over anybody in the Big 10 this season. Purdue has great length and they also have some good wins on the season. They are coming off two straight wins over ranked teams and they have more than enough to beat Northwestern in Chicago. The Wildcats are in year two of a major rebuilding project and Coach Collins just does not have the bullets to win consistently in Big 10 play. Northwestern won their opening Big 10 games but they have lost six straight since that win at Rutgers including some tough luck losses in their last two games against Maryland and Ohio State. These close losses eventually take its toll of a team and I expect Northwestern to start getting blown out in more games. Purdue has laid an egg often times the last couple of years but this is a make our break year for their coach and I expect them to finish the season out strong. Purdue has the better player at 4 of the 5 positions on the court and they will take care of business tonight in Evanston. Purdue has covered 7 of their last 9 Big 10 games. 

The Raptors are playing really good basketball right now and is back to their winning ways. The Nets are just horrible right now and have thrown in the towel on the season already. This one shouldn’t be close. In their last three games the Nets have lost to Utah by 35 and the LA Clippers by nearly 40. This team has too much talent to be losing like that so you can tell the motivation just isn’t there. Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, and we think this is another situation where they are overrated here on Friday night.

All signs point to a Spurs blowout here. The Hornets offense has flat-out stunk lately, and now they have to move forward for Kemba Walker, who should miss most of the rest of the regular season. Just look at this team’s performance the last five games. Last time out they managed only 76 offensively in a win against the Knicks. They scored 78 in regulation in wins over the Pacers and Heat. They did have some success in those games because of their defense and the horrible quality of their opponents. But that is not going to get the job done against a team like the Spurs. These teams played a couple weeks ago and the Hornets rallied to lose by only five at home. However, they were down by as many as 16 in that game. So the change of venue will only help the Spurs play better here at home. Also, Kemba Walker scored 28 points in that game, so there is no one on the team really there to pick up that kind of production. The next leading scorer in that game? Bismack Biyombo with 12. Oh yeah, he is out as well. Although we lean towards the under in this game because we don’t see any way the Hornets have offensive success, we do expect the Spurs to have a big offensive game, and we think they won’t have any problem covering this big number. Aside from that letdown game in Chicago the Spurs have really been rolling, and this team will not have two games like that in a week and also this team is known for destroying struggling teams like this and will show no mercy even if up with a big lead.

10 Unit Play. #730 Take Marquette over Seton Hall (7 pm FS 1) It just does not matter who is coaching Marquette, they are always a feisty bunch and I believe they can outwork Seton Hall to a victory on Wednesday. The Pirates are a sinking ship at the moment with three straight losses and they have been devastated by the injury of Isaiah Whitehead. Marquette has just two Big East victories this season but both of them came at home against Creighton and Providence and Seton Hall is a similar team to both of those. Marquette has a big man inside in Luke Fisher and he should be able to hold his own on both ends of the court. Marquette is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 

The Cavs have finally got their act together and are playing like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference if not the NBA right now. They have won and covered six straight, and all but two of those wins were by double digits. Detroit is in a bad spot tonight. They will be playing their third game in four nights and lost one of their key players in Brandon Jennings for the season over the weekend. Some teams will rise up and play better with the absence of a player like this, but the Pistons are already thin on the bench as it is. And after some strong play over the past month this team seems to be regressing as they have dropped three of their last four. They have had a fairly easy schedule of late and even when they win they have not been getting many style points in the process. Just think this team may be down here emotionally as the Jennings injury probably derailed any hopes of this team making a playoff run, and the Cavs seem to be playing very motivated basketball right now and should cruise to a double-digit win here.

10 Unit Play. #538 Take Georgia over Vanderbilt (7 pm SEC Network) Vanderbilt is still not ready to challenge top teams in the SEC on the road. They have been in a major rebuild the last couple of years and they are just 1-5 this season in SEC play. Georgia is an NCAA Tournament team in my mind and they are not always pretty but they have been very solid this season currently with a 4-2 record in conference play. The Dawgs have won four straight games including beating this Vanderbilt team in Nashville on January 14th. Vanderbilt has hung tough with some top teams in the conference but nonetheless they have lost five straight games and losing will eventually take its toll on this team and I would expect them to lose by double digits this evening. Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Georgia is 27-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 38 SEC games. 

The Bucks have been hit hard by injuries and this team is trending downwards. They come in and play hard every night, but the talent is just not there. We think this line is a gift for Detroit, a team with playoff-caliber talent (we called that they were going to make a playoff run as soon as they released Josh Smith), and a team that is trending upwards right now in a big way. Since the Pistons have started to play better we not group them with some of the better teams in the east, but the oddsmakers still have not adjusted to this team yet. We think this line should be closer to 5. Milwaukee has been struggling lately with their only win coming against the Knicks in their last four games. The Bucks just can’t score lately and this Pistons team has shown the ability to put up a lot of points. We think that this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions and will gladly lay the small number here.

Ohio has overachieved for so long that odds makers are giving them too much respect this season. They have another new coaching staff and the talent level has dropped off quite a bit in 2014-2015. They did beat Ball State last time out by they have lost four of their last five games and really have not been competitive in those four losses. Buffalo is a player this season in the MAC and they have much more talent than they Bobcats this season. They have the two best players on the court and you can be sure Bobby Hurley does not want to lose two conference games in a row. The Bulls have already won five true road games this season and Ohio does not have the home court that will scare them. Finally the two trends that will allow this game to cash are: Buffalo is 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games. Ohio is 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win in their previous game.

The Nuggets have lost four straight games, but we think this team is trending upwards since it is getting healthy and we expect them to do really well in this game on Friday night. The Celtics are coming in on a back-to-back after another tough game in Portland last night. Denver is the absolute hardest place to play on a back-to-back because the high elevation makes it harder to breathe in the best of circumstances never mind when you have been running up and down the court for 20 or 30 minutes the night before banging bodies with some of the best athletes on the planet. And we are getting a nice line here because the Nuggets have been lousy lately, but this team had a very tough stretch of games during this losing streak with only one loss to Minnesota really being a bad one (they had a bad loss at GSW, but they are destroying everyone right now).  But this team is getting healthy and should be getting one of their key players back here in Danilo Gallinari. Denver has dealt with as many key injuries as anyone this season, but will a full squad this team is pretty decent in the Western Conference. And we feel like we are getting a very short line here because of this team’s recent slump. As bad as the Nuggets have been, this Celtics team has been a lot worse, and the players all know that this is a wasted season, and we don’t expect them to put up a huge fight here in this b-2-b situation. Also, Denver has covered in 8 of the last 10 meetings, and we think those trends continue as this one looks like a double-digit win for the home club tonight.

The Spurs are finally healthy and this team is really coming on like gangbusters right now. They have won four straight and six of seven and have covered in five of their last six. Three straight wins were by double digits and they have four double-digit wins in their last six games. Really think this is a team to start backing after their slow start. They finally have a full squad of players to work with and this team realizes that with the west so tough this season that they really need to switch it into another gear. We all know the Spurs have this gear, and they have been one of the best road teams in the NBA the last couple years, so we think they are in a real good spot here tonight. The Bulls have just been lousy lately. Joakim Noah is questionable here after missing the last four games, and even if he does play he will probably not be anywhere near 100%. This team has now lost six of its last eight, and those Ls included losses to Orlando and Utah, both on this same court. Chicago has been better on the road (15-6) than here at home (12-10), and they have been draining bettors’ bankrolls at home with a 7-15 ATS mark here. Their defense, which has been dominant the last several years and is normally one of the best in the NBA, has major problems, and this team is not even ranked in the Top 15 defensively this season! San Antonio has had great success here against the number and has cashed in 9 of the last 12 meetings. The Bulls are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here due to their name, but their play on the court recently tells us this line should be much larger.

10 Unit Play. #774 Take Tulane over SMU (9 pm CBSSN) SMU is having a ton of issues at the moment and they are not a good enough team to be laying this many points in the Bayou. This is the third road games for the Mustangs in their last 4 conference games and that will catch up with them in this affair. I expect a game to be played in the sixties tonight and getting around a touchdown in too good to pass up. SMU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

It’s hard to argue with what Atlanta has been doing and they look like the best team in the NBA. However, we think this team has to come down to earth a bit and the lines are just getting bigger and bigger. A few weeks ago this number probably would have been between 7-8, and that is where we think that this number should be tonight. This number is shaded due to the Hawks’ success and the Pacers failures. Indiana has not covered in seven games. However, they were a favorite in five of those games. They are back in their role as big underdog tonight, and they have done pretty well as a puppy catching big points. This team is 8-4 ATS when catching 7 or more points this season. We think this Indiana team has some pride and they are due for a good game. Atlanta now has a bullseye on its back in every game and will start getting opponents’ best efforts. The Hawks are also coming off a tough game against Detroit and have the Thunder on deck, so this looks like a letdown spot tonight.

So just because the Cavaliers beat the Lakers and then the schizophrenic Clippers we are supposed to believe that they are suddenly back and on the same level as Chicago? We don’t think so. This line pretty much means that both teams are even and that the Cavs get the home-court handicap. But we think this Bulls team is a much better club here and that they should be able to win this one straight up. We do see this one as a competitive game, but we also think that this line should be closer to ‘pick’em’ instead of the Cavs being a decisive favorite here. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the NBA at 15-5 on the season. They have also been very good in this series historically and have covered in six of the last seven meetings here in this building and in 10 of the last 13 meetings overall. The Bulls are the dominant team here and should be able to compete for the straight up win here tonight.

This is one of our favorite angles to play in NBA handicapping when teams play on consecutive nights in a home-and-home situation. This one becomes even stronger since the Wizards were the big favorite last night and got blown out at home. Even Nets coach Lionel Hollins said last night in the post-game press conference that he was “scared” to play the Wizards again tonight. Washington is the much better team and they should dominate tonight. Before that loss last night the Wizards had won and covered three straight meetings in this series. It seems like the Nets played their best game possible last night so there are really no adjustments they can make here but the Wizards are much better and they will be able to change their game up and correct what they did wrong last night. Plus, Brooklyn has been so inconsistent this season you get the feeling that this is the type of team that would be happy with the split against a good team like the Wizards and might take the night off in this one. There is a reason the bookies made the Wizards a sizable road favorite in this one despite getting blown out by the same team at home last night. In our opinion this line is way too short!

10 Unit Play. #579 Take Georgia Tech over Pittsburgh (4 pm ESPN 3) The Panthers have played a very easy conference schedule this season and they have been blown out by NC State and Clemson. This team is not any good and the Jamie Dixon magic has worn off. The Yellow Jackets have trouble scoring points but they are solid on the defensive end of the floor and that will allow them to win this game on Saturday, their first conference win of the season. Georgia Tech has not been blown out in any ACC game this season and they took Notre Dame to the wire twice as well as Syracuse. This is a make or break season for Brian Gregory and his team still plays hard and I believe they will win this game straight-up. Out of their seven losses, only one game has been a blowout and this game could very well be played in the fifties this afternoon. Finally the key stats that will allow us to grab the money in this game. Pittsburgh is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games. Georgia Tech is 10-3 ATS in their 13 road games. Getting points is just icing on the cake, as we have the hungrier team in this affair.  

The Kings have been playing better lately. They have won two of four, including a win over OKC here on this game floor and a loss here in OT to Dallas last time out. Confidence from the public is limited on this team, but we think this is a good spot for them tonight against a road-weary Heat team. This is the fifth game of a western road trip for the Heat, and they have three days off after this so we think that this is a letdown spot for them. The Kings have been inconsistent, but overall we think this is a much better squad with the players that will be on the court tonight (Wade should be missing for Miami and Gay for Sacramento), even though their records are similar. Racking up wins in the east, of course, is much easier than the west. But this line tells us that pretty much home-court advantage is what separates these teams. But with Miami road weary and seeing those days off ahead of them we think they will probably take their time off early tonight and we expect a strong performance from the home team here.

The Cavs have been mostly a team we have looked to play against this season, but this team might have the most value right at this point in time than they will have all season. Public bettors have lost so much on this team that they are no longer the public betting team they started the season as. The media frenzy over how bad this team has played has been massive, and the spreads have been gaining more value. LeBron James, of course, missed 8 games, and without him this squad is similar to the underachieving team that stunk it up last season. But with him they have a chance to win any game, and with one game back under his belt since returning to the court we think that the team will give its best effort here in a very winnable game. The Lakers are the perfect remedy for what ails a team. This team really stinks, and unlike the Cavs there is no turning things around this season. They displayed a truly pitiful effort last time out in scoring only 75 in a loss to the Heat. This just seems like a “get right” game for the Cavs and with a national TV audience watching we think they have a big bounce-back game. A couple weeks ago this line would have probably been 10+. And while we would never play them at that number here, we think the number is right for the Cavs tonight.

Like the Wizards here in a good spot as the Spurs have been very mediocre on the road this season at 10-9 while the Wiz Kids have been dominating at home so far, posting a 16-4 record. We also don’t think revenge is a major handicapping angle in NBA betting, but these teams did play a week and a half ago in San Antonio and the Spurs staged a second-half rally to score the win. That loss should be fresh on the Wizards players minds, and they probably also want to put a road blowout loss to the Hawks in their rearview mirror with a strong performance here as well. Neither team has been very good against the betting odds, but the Spurs always get the benefit of the doubt from the oddsmakers, and we think that this line is shaded a couple points in favor of the Spurs, who we think should be a larger dog here. Washington has not beat the Spurs in a long time, and tonight is their best chance to get that money off their back.

10 Unit Play. #530 Take Indiana over Penn State (7 pm BTN) Indiana has a lot of flaws but they are still a good offensive team and if Yogi Ferrell could find his form in this game they will win big. Penn State played a fraudulent schedule to open the season and once Big 10 play opened up they feel to the bottom of the standing where they belong. Indiana is a much better team at Assembly Hall and Penn State has issues scoring points on the road. This is a must win game if Indiana has visions of making the NCAA Tournament this season and I expect them to dominate from start to finish and win it by 12-15 points. Penn State is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Indiana has covered the spread in five straight home games.