Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. It has not been the start the Jets anticipated as they have lost three straight games following an opening win over Buffalo following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. No one wants a part of backing this team but they have played well the last two games and finally catch a break in the schedule as New York has played the No. 1 ranked schedule. Zach Wilson has taken a lot of heat but he has faced some potent defenses, three of which are ranked in the top five in passing EPA as well as facing the Patriots before they got banged up. Now he goes up against the No. 32 ranked defense in passing EPA and while he has felt the pressure, he will not here as Denver has an 18.5 percent pressure rate which is seventh lowest in the league. The Jets will be able to run as well against the No. 29 ranked rushing EPA defense. Denver is another team no one wants to back and it will be getting more love than it should this week. The Broncos escaped last week as they rallied against the Bears defense for their first win but now they square off against a much stronger defense. The offensive numbers have been surprisingly good but that comes with who they have faced as they have gone against defenses ranked No. 26, 27, 28 and 31 in defensive EPA. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a two-game road trip, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) New York Jets

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Rams come in as a significant home underdog for a quality team and while a 2-2 record might not say that, but they are underrated. Five teams are in action this week that are ranked in the top ten in offensive rushing EPA, offensive passing EPA and overall offensive EPA, which are the Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, 49ers and the fifth being the Rams as they are No. 4, No. 7 and No. 6 respectively in those categories. This has come against the No. 4 ranked schedule in the league and Matthew Stafford could be in for a day. He faces an Eagles defense that is No. 18 in passing EPA and this have come against three below average quarterbacks and Kirk Cousins as the Philadelphia secondary has underperformed and is banged up. Philadelphia is 4-0 on the season but are not dominant and the numbers prove that. The Eagles are No. 5 in offensive EPA but No. 14 in passing as they have relied on their rushing game. Defensively, they are No. 16 overall with a net EPA ranked No. 10 which is just two spots ahead of the Rams. Philadelphia has played the No. 26 ranked schedule and factoring into it all is it remains No. 1 in the NFL Luck Rankings. The Eagles are coming off a hard fought division game and now head west in a tough situation. Here, we play against favorites outgaining their opponents by 50 or more ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (468) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Atlanta is coming off a pair of poor performances against Detroit and Jacksonville as it managed only 13 points total but it was totally taken out of its gameplan in both games. The Falcons were forced to abandon the run as combined they threw the ball 25 more times than they ran it. Part of that was due to playing catch up and facing two defenses with strong rushing defenses. That changes this week. The Texans are ranked No. 30 in defensive rushing EPA and what makes this even worse is that their last three games have come against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Indianapolis which are ranked No. 25, 32 and 26 respectively in offensive rushing EPA. This could be the breakout game for Bijan Robinson who has been really good already with 318 yards on 6.0 ypc. The Texans have won two straight games and are starting to get that public backing including here as this line has dropped under a key number. The big story in Houston has been the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who has already set some rookie records including most pass attempts without throwing an interception and his quarterback rating of 100.6 is impressive for a rookie. While not known for a strong defense, Atlanta has fared well against the pass at it is No. 11 in passing EPA. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Tennessee won going away for us last week as it was able to shut down a Cincinnati offense that clearly is not right and the situation was hugely in its favor, coming off a 27-3 loss at Cleveland. Derrick Henry went off last week with 122 yards rushing on 5.5 ypc but that was against a Bengals defense that is ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing EPA. The Colts come in No. 13 in that category so they should be able to slow him down enough and make Ryan Tannehill beat them after he was not asked to do so last week. Overall, this is a very underrated Colts defense. Indianapolis almost rallied from a 23-0 deficit as it forced overtime only to lose. The road team is a surprising 4-0 in its games but that changes here. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson returned last week and he has definitely shown flashes. He was on pace for a big game against Houston before getting hurt and he then missed the next game and while he struggled early last week, he rallied in the second half. This is a bad matchup for the Tennessee defense as it is one of the best inside but is struggles to contain and this is where Richardson can use his athleticism to get to the outside to create plays for himself and also find spots downfield against a poor Titans secondary. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. This game is more evenly matched than what the line is saying as from a statistical standpoint, there is not much. Rushing offense is nearly identical, rushing defense is a difference of just 30 ypg for Oregon St., passing offense is close to identical and passing defense favors the Beavers by only 45 yards. They both convert the same on third down at 41.3 percent and they both allow the same on third down at 31.2 percent. California has played tougher schedule by 10 spots and with all of this Oregon St. comes in as nearly a double-digit favorite and this is due to its impressive win over Utah last week but it was at home however and this presents a big letdown spot for the Beavers with UCLA on deck on top of it. The Golden Bears results are playing into the number as well with their narrow 24-21 win last week against Arizona St. and their 27-point loss to Washington the previous week but the Huskies are proving to be one of the top teams in the country. California is 3-2 which is just one win shy of its wins from all of last season and with 17 starters back, a big improvement was expected. Its other loss came against Auburn by only four points as it outgained the Tigers by 43 yards and had a chance for the win but was intercepts in the redzone. It is time for a marquee win and this could be it and needs to be it with Utah, USC and Oregon on deck but a close game is all we need. 10* (382) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Star Attraction. Baylor should be 1-4 right now but is coming off an improbable win last week to grab its first victory of the season. The Bears were upset at home against Texas St. to open the season as a 26.5-point favorite, blew a late lead against Utah and then were crushed against Texas with a win over Long Island of the FCS sandwiched in there to open 1-3, all three losses at home. They fell behind 35-7 against UCF last week but scored the final 29 points to pull out the one-point win that was aided by a 72-yard fumble return for a touchdown in what was a possible 14-point swing. Not much was expected this season with just 12 starters back and this is a big letdown spot for Baylor following that victory last week. Texas Tech is also 2-3 but unlike Baylor, its record could be better. Two losses against West Virginia and Wyoming were by a combined nine points and the Red Raiders won the yardage battle in both of those games but were just on the wrong end of the scoreboard and the other loss came against Oregon, arguably one of the best teams in the country, by only eight points as they blew a one-point lead with 1:10 left but allowed a field goal and were driving for their own field goal before a 45-yard pick six sealed the game. They are the better team here based on power rankings and they could not catch Baylor in a worse spot while gaining revenge from a 45-17 shellacking at home last season. 10* (383) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Iowa two weeks ago as it was crushed by Penn St. in an awful call as it managed only 76 yards of offense. The Hawkeyes bounced back last week against Michigan St. but failed to cover and did not look great on offense once again. Part of the problem was quarterback Cade McNamara left the game early and Deacon Hill was forced into action with no preparation and it showed. McNamara is very good so there is not a big downgrade with him being out as Hill brings in a big athletic presence and a week to work with his starting offense to square off against a defense that is bad in both aspects and one of the worst third down defenses in the country. Purdue is off to a 2-3 start and it has looked good only once which came against Virginia Tech and while it was on the road and it outgained the Hokies by 141 total yards and were +2 in turnovers, the Boilermakers only won by a touchdown. They have been crushed in the stats in two games against Fresno St. and Syracuse and while they outgained Wisconsin, it was only by eight yards as turnovers did them in and last week against Illinois, it was a misleading final score as they won by 25 points but outgained the Illini by only 31 total yards. As bad as Iowa has been on offense, it makes up for on defense and Purdue will have its hands full while catching a very small number. 10* (368) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN' CAJUNS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Texas St. is one of the bigger surprises in the FBS this season as it is 4-1 and while an opening game upset looked great at the time, it is not looking as impressive now. The Bobcats are coming off a 14-point win over Southern Mississippi last week but it was a skewed final as they outgained the Wolf Pack by just six total yards as they opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Prior to that, it was a victory over Jackson St. of the FCS and a bad Nevada team that is 0-5 by only 11 points. While the offense has been potent, the defense has not been very good as they are allowing over 400 yards of offense and the Bobcats are allowing opponents to convert on 50 percent of third down conversions, tied for sixth worst in the nation. Louisiana is coming off a loss at Minnesota last week which came as no surprise as a double-digit underdog. The Cajuns are now 3-2 with the other loss coming at Old Dominion on the road and they have blown out their opponents in the three victories. To contend in the SBC West, this is a near must win as they face Troy and South Alabama on the road. Louisiana has the three rushing ypc edges on its side as it is outrushing its opponents by a significant amount, is averaging more ypc on offense than Texas St. and allows fewer ypc on defense than the Bobcats and while that is usually a solid situation for underdogs, that is close to what this line is. 10* (404) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our MAC Game of the Year. Central Michigan is 3-2 as it opened MAC play with a win over Eastern Michigan last week and it is now the likely team to contend with Toledo in the MAC East with Northern Illinois losing last week to the Rockets. This is where the Chippewas have to take care of business as the back end of the schedule is brutal as each of their final four games are against teams that are coming off a bye so they will be in for a handful. They are catching a short number here based on the fact all three of their wins have come by four points or less but this is an ideal matchup with strength against weakness. Central Michigan prefers running the ball and faces one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire country here. The Bulls put an end to their four-game losing streak to open the season with a win last week but it was against lowly Akron by only three points and while it was on the road, there is no significant home field edge for the Bulls. They lost both of their games played at home, one in which was a 28-point loss to Liberty and the other against Fordham of the FCS which is one of the lower ranked teams in that division. Buffalo did lost to Louisiana on the road by only seven points but it was dominated as the Cajuns hurt themselves with three turnovers. The Bulls did a good job against the Akron running game but the Zips are one of the worst rushing teams in the country. 10* (349) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. This is a great spot and a great number for Army as it comes in at 2-2. The Black Knights are coming off a bye week following a pair of road games where they split against UTSA and Syracuse and this marks their first home game in a month and just their second on the season. The first one was not a real test as it came against Delaware St. of the FCS but they did what they had to do in a 57-0 win. The other loss came against ULM by four points as they committed five turnovers and that is usually impossible to recover from. Boston College has been involved in four games decided by three points or less, going 2-2 and all of those games were at home. The Eagles lost their opener to Northern Illinois and then snuck out a win over Holy Cross the following week. The surprise came as they lost to Florida St. by only two points but the Seminoles were in a travel spot no ACC team prefers and they has Clemson on deck so that was a situational result more than a talent one. The Eagles snuck past a very bad Virginia team last week despite committing four turnovers so they were fortunate with that giveaway number. This is just their second road game of the season, the first resulting in a 28-point loss at Louisville and while we are not putting Army in the same category as the Cardinals, the linemakers are not either with this number being 11 points less. 10* (332) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Rutgers opened the season with three home wins over teams that will likely not see a bowl game and all currently sit at 2-3. While they were not tested, the Scarlet Knights rolled in all three of those games so they took care of business before going to Michigan in a tough spot with head coach Jim Harbaugh coming back for his first game. They did not play poorly as they hung in for most of the game but wore down as Michigan controlled the clock for over 12 minutes more. Rutgers go some positive momentum back last week with a blowout against Wagner of the FCS before heading to another tough environment but they are catching an inflated number against an overvalued team. Wisconsin does have the advantage of coming off a bye week following a blowout win against Purdue to open Big Ten action. That was the Badgers send straight win by 21 points, the first coming against Georgia Southern, but they hardly dominated either of those games. They were outgained by the Eagles by four yards and outgained by the Boilermakers by five yards but had a +8 turnover margin combined which made the difference. Those skewed final scores play into future numbers and that is the case here with Wisconsin having the yardage advantage in only one of four games which came in the opener against Buffalo. They have a slight rushing edge on offense but they allow more ypc than Rutgers with the Scarlet Knights also having the better rushing margin. 10* (365) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Primetime Dominator. Oklahoma St. is coming off a pair of losses following a 2-0 start that was pretty unimpressive anyway. The Cowboys put up a good effort against Iowa St. in their last game as they were outgained by only 13 total yards but as was the case in their other loss against South Alabama, turnovers hurt them as they were on the wrong end in both games 2-0. Quarterback Alan Bowman is coming off his best game even though he tossed a pair of picks and he has a decent matchup here against a defense allowing 237.8 ypg on a 62 percent completion rate. The running game has been adequate and they are putting up an average of 4.2 ypc and while the Wildcats are allowing only 73.2 ypg, teams have not ran the ball as the 29 attempts per game are tenth fewest in the country. Kansas St. bounced back from a tough loss against Missouri to roll past UCF but are now laying a much bigger number on the road than it was at home which is about an 11-point swing. The Wildcats offense has been producing at a high level but with a big chunk coming against SE Missouri St. of the FCS. Oklahoma St. has been playing well on defense despite the last two games points allowed as it allows just 3.9 ypc on the ground and 222 ypg on 7.4 ypa through the air. This is a big payback spot with the Cowboys losing in Manhattan last season 48-0 so it will be an amped environment in a primetime Friday game. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl and after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 39-10 ATS (79.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (316) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Denver as it blew a 28-7 lead late in the third quarter by allowing the final 24 points with the stinger coming on a 35-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bears also lost the cover as well as it resulted in a push and they have gone seven straight going back to last season without a cover and have lost 14 straight games. in three of the four losses, they have been in the game as they were barely outgained by Green Bay, were within three points against Tampa Bay before a pick six and then the defeat last week where they outgained the Broncos by 160 yards. Turnovers have obviously been the difference as they have eight turnovers with Justin Fields accounting for seven of those. He is coming off his best game however and can carry that into this game against a poor Washington defense allowing 7.0 ypc, No. 24 in the league. The Commanders are also coming off a tough loss as they held a 17-7 lead and it was a tight game where they never trailed by more than a touchdown. That is a rough division loss to recover from yet the money has come in early to move this line up two points from opening but that is more of the action against the Bears as no one wants to back them. This offense is right in line with Chicago and while facing a bad defense, the Bears weakness is against the pass but Sam Howell is a quarterback hard to trust with his 81.3 rating and having more interceptions than touchdowns. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 157-94 ATS (62.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTCUKY HILLTOPPERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is off to a 3-3 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St., that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the five FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by only five points. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a big 24-10 win over UTEP but they were outgained by the Miners and benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and that was the third straight game they have been outgained. Jack Turner has taken over at quarterback for the injured Hank Bachmeier who is questionable again and Turner has not been very good. The rushing attack averages 152 ypg on 4.7 ypc but that is severely skewed after gashing Northwestern St. for 367 on 38 carries (9.7 ypc) so the averages are 137 ypg on 38 carries per game (3.6 ypc) in their five FBS games. Western Kentucky also snapped a two-game slide with a win over Middle Tennessee St. and overall the Hilltoppers have played a schedule ranked 40 spots higher than that of Louisiana Tech which has played the sixth easiest schedule of all FBS teams in action this week. The offense has been fine with the exception of the Ohio St. game and while quarterback Austin Reed has not as potent as last season, he has been really good completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Rushing offense has not done much with 96.8 ypg but faces a Bulldogs defense that is allowing 226.2 ypg on 5.2 ypc. 10* (309) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. We played against Jacksonville St. last Thursday and had a brutal beat with Sam Houston St. as it allowed a touchdown and two-point conversion with 13 seconds left that sent the game into overtime with the Gamecocks scoring the lone touchdown to cover by a half-point. Jacksonville St. is now 4-1 on the season but it has played the second easiest schedule ahead of only New Mexico St. Despite scoring 35 points last week, 21 were in the first 59:47 and it had not scored more than 21 points in any other of its FBS wins and now hits the road for a second straight week where its only loss of the season occurred at Coastal Carolina. The Gamecocks have benefitted from a +7 turnover margin and they have been outgained in three of their four games against FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee St. is on the opposite end of the records as it is 1-4 following a loss at Western Kentucky last week. The one win came against Murray St. of the FCS and to its credit, the schedule has been brutal besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and two road games against Alabama and Missouri. The Blue Raiders have faced from excellent offenses yet the defense is holding its own to a degree, ranked No. 75 in yards allowed and No. 76 in yppl. As said, the Jacksonville St. offense has done nothing special even against a weak slate as it is ranked No. 72 in ypg and No. 82 in yppl. The weakness of the Middle Tennessee St. defense has been against the pass but the Gamecocks are No. 125 in passing ypg and No. 118 in ypa. 10* (302) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have played 12 quarters this season and have only played good in four of those, two against Arizona and two against San Francsico. The problem is they got blitzed in the other two quarters against the 49ers, getting outscored 24-3 and they have had extra time to get ready to heal up. Injuries have played an early role in the lack of success but they will be getting at least one big piece back with tackle Andrew Thomas coming back after missing the last two games. Saquon Barkley is still out which might be affecting this line a little as is the fact New York is 0-3 ATS. Seattle is 2-1 with wins in its last two games which came after a disaster of a game in its season opener against the Rams. The two victories are making the Seahawks a public darling again but this team has their issues. They too are dealing with important injuries, especially across the offensive line and in the secondary. The latter is an issue as the Seahawks have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 7.5 ypa which is tied for fourth worst in the league and their 328 ypg allowed is second worst. The Giants struggled to air it out against the Cowboys and 49ers but those are two of the best so they can have success here. With road games at Miami and Buffalo on deck, this has become a must win for the Giants. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (280) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. It has been an understandable regression for Minnesota which went 11-0 in one possession games during the regular season last year but has not dropped four straight one possession games going back to its postseason game. Turnovers have been a big issue as the Vikings are -7 in turnover margin and while difficult to predict, they can be contagious. Right now, they are not close to a touchdown favorite over Carolina on a neutral field yet the public is still on Minnesota and they are all over them again here with this line moving early and going over the key number three. Carolina lost a tough cover last week as it was within the margin for the majority of the game but could not run the ball and wasted a great effort from backup Andy Dalton who passed for 361 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. He is likely going to make another start with Bryce Young nursing that ankle injury and no matter who goes, the Panthers will be facing another poor defense that is allowing 5.5 yppl which is tied for No. 24 in the league. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Cleveland came through for us last week as the defense continues its historic early season pace. The Browns lead the NFL in yppl allowed with just 3.2 and they have given up a total of only 491 through the first three games. This is a pace that cannot continue and now will be facing the most dynamic offense it has seen. The loss on Nick Chubb has shown as even though Cleveland piled up rushing yards against Pittsburgh, a lot of that came on a big play after he left and they were held in check last week. We cannot trust Deshaun Watson two straight weeks. Baltimore was put into a tough spot last week coming off a bog road divisional win and then having to deal with numerous injuries last week. The Ravens are going to be healthier this week and they have a good matchup and after coming off an upset loss last week, the public is off. Baltimore opened as the favorite and it has flipped with the majority of places having a juiced 2.5 number and we should be able to get 3 with the Browns catching 88 percent of money and 80 percent of tickets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Rams are coming off a loss and hit the road again on a short week which has partially caused line movement the other way. Los Angeles is 1-2 with the win coming against a Seattle team that looks to have gotten things right. A loss to San Francisco was no surprise even though the Rams won the yardage battle and last week was just an ugly play called game that they should have ended up winning. Los Angeles is tied for No. 11 in opponents yppl at 4.9 and tied for No. 10 in offensive yppl at 5.3 so it has been above average despite possessing a losing record. The Colts are coming off an upset win at Baltimore which is the other part of the line move. At 2-1, is this a good team? Jacksonville has played into their record as the Colts played them tight and beat Houston which just defeated the Jaguars but the Jacksonville team is not right. We could see Anthony Richardson back at quarterback but neither he nor Gardner Minshew provide consistency in the offense that is averaging only 4.6 yppl, No. 25 in the league. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Titans are coming off a blowout loss against Cleveland and had an abysmal performance on offense, managing only 92 total yards against what has been the best defense in the league thus far and that was their worst offensive output in 49 years. The matchup this week is the complete opposite and it certainly cannot get any worse. They are back home where they own a win in their only game in Nashville against the Chargers and this has been a great spot in the past as Tennessee is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after scoring nine points or less. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season but it was far from easy as the running game could get nothing going for a third straight game behind a hobbled quarterback. Cincinnati is dead last in the NFL in yppl at 4.0 which is not what was expected when coming into the season but the calf injury to Joe Burrow is a bigger deal that anticipated. Defensively, the Bengals have not been much better as they are No. 20 in yppl allowed at 5.4 and after allowing 384 yards on the ground in their first two games, Derrick Henry could be primed for a big game. The public is not shying away with 94 percent of money and tickets on Cincinnati and we hope to see a 3 after already moving a point from its opening. 10* (270) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Appalachian St. is coming off a disheartening loss last week in Laramie as it was up by five points late in the game but had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and Wyoming went up by three points following the two-point conversion. The Mountaineers were driving again and were likely going to have a chance to tie but suffered a redzone interception and they fell to 2-2 on the season. The did dominate Wyoming in the stats and while that typically puts a team into a good spot in the next game, they go from a slight underdog to an overpriced road favorite based on name and program. Appalachian St. also falls into the worst of all rushing situations, allowing more ypc than gaining, gaining fewer ypc than opponent and allowing more ypc than opponent allows. UL-Monroe opened the season 2-0 and while one of those wins came against Lamar of the FCS, the Warhawks opened the season with a solid win over Army, part of their 2-0 home record. They are coming off a blowout loss at Texas A&M in their last game but had a bye last week to regroup from that defeat. The passing game has been a concern but they did not have to thrown in the first two games with a strong running attack and did not have a chance against the Aggies as they ran only 48 plays total compared to 73 for Texas A&M. 10* (196) UL-Monroe Warhawks

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We are seeing a reverse line move here with a big majority of money being on Georgia St. but seeing the go the other way. It has been a 2-2 start for Troy after winning 11 straight games to close last season and it has had some tough luck to its .500 start. While the scoreboard showed just a three-point win over Western Kentucky last week, the Trojans won the yardage battle 521-288 and its loss in the previous game against James Madison, it was by only two points with the yardage being equal. While they did lose to Kansas St. by 29 points, the game was a lot closer than that and it has been the same story in all four games, losing the turnover battle in all four and by a combined 10-4. Georgia St. is 4-0 following a win last Thursday against Coastal Carolina which is another oddity we are seeing a line drop because of the extra rest and return home. The Panthers were actually outgained 402-388 last week and were also outgained by Rhode Island of the FCS in their season opener. Overall, they are only +43 ypg in differential which is a very low positive variance for an undefeated team but unlike Troy, they have benefitted from a positive turnover differential of 7-2. A lot of this has to do with the schedule as Georgia St. has played the No. 157 ranked schedule compared to a No. 72 ranked slate for Troy. 10* (131) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa St. bounced back from a pair of tough one possession losses against Iowa and Ohio with a solid win against Oklahoma St. last week to improve to 2-2. The offense had its biggest output of the season against the Cowboys as quarterback Rocco Becht is finding some rhythm after taking over for Hunter Dekkers who was charged with tampering amid the sports gambling investigation as he threw for a career high 348 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The defense is once again leading the way as the Cyclones are No. 19 in the nation, allowing 299 ypg which is split right between the previous two seasons while giving up only 16.5 ppg, four ppg fewer than both 2022 and 2021. Oklahoma is off to a 4-0 start following a lackluster effort against Cincinnati last week and while that could normally be a motivator, the real motivation awaits. The Sooners have the Red River Showdown against Texas on deck next week and there is extra juice for that one after getting shutout 49-0 last season, the most points allowed by Oklahoma in the entire 117- game series history. They are now favored by more points against a conference opponent than they were in their last home game against SMU despite Iowa St. and SMU ranked just one spot apart from each other. Too many to lay here. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our Saturday Free Play. Oregon is coming off a blowout win at home over Colorado last week and while it was a big favorite, it came with a lot of hype and the Ducks were out to prove a point which they did. Now, they hit the road in a big letdown spot with a bye on deck followed by a massive road game at Washington after that. The thought is to get out of here unscathed with the meat of the schedule upcoming. Oregon has vaulted up to No. 9 in the AP Poll which is a factor in the big number as is the fact the Ducks are a perfect 4-0 ATS while covering those games by an average of 12.8 ppg. Stanford opened the season with a big win at Hawaii but has dropped three straight games including a pair in the Pac 12. The Cardinal are coming off a one point loss against Arizona last week in a back and forth game that was clean on both sides with no turnovers. In the previous two losses, Stanford gave it up five times and it can ill afford to do that in this matchup against one of the most powerful offenses in the country. One big thing that Stanford has been able to is run the ball as it is averaging 163.8 ypg on 4.3 ypc and success in that area can shorten the game which is important when backing a big underdog. Overall, the Cardinal have faced a schedule ranked No. 60 compared to Oregon which has played a slate ranked No. 108. Even with the massive number, Oregon is going to be a big public play this week after everyone watched them torch the Buffaloes last week and we will see nothing close to the same inspired effort from last Saturday. Play (174) Stanford Cardinal

Fargo is coming off win with Detroit to open Week 4 and he is on a POTENT 12-7 NFL Run! The NFL Regular and Postseason record is 79-55-1 (+$18,750) since the start of last season and Week 4 is loaded for another MASSIVE weekend with FIVE Sunday-Monday Winners! CFB off a win with NC State and SEVEN Saturday Winners!

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We won Hawaii in its opener in Week 0 as it hung tough in a long trip east against Vanderbilt where it lost by just a touchdown. The Warriors are 2-2 in their other four games, losing those two games to Pac 12 teams so their losses have been more than expected coming against Power 5 teams. They jump into conference action with a very favorable schedule and they can put it all out here with a bye week on deck. The passing game has been strong with quarterback Brayden Schager, who is averaging 269.6 ypg while completing 64 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns which is just one less than all of last season. UNLV is off to a 3-1 start but it is a skewed record. The Rebels defeated Bryant of the FCS despite being dead even in total yardage and another win came against Vanderbilt where they got outgained so based on expected simulated outcomes, they could be 1-3. Now UNLV is laying double digits against an FBS team for just the fourth time in five years and failed to cover any of the previous three times. A game against Michigan has strengthened their schedule but it still comes in ranked No. 132 in the country and while the offense is balanced which is a strength, the passing game is not good as they are completing only 57.9 percent of their passes with one touchdown against FBS teams. 10* (169) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Powerhouse Play. Missouri is great fade material this week with significant factors on both sides favoring the home team. The Tigers won for us two weeks ago as they nailed a game winning 61-yard field goal to upset Kansas St. and they followed that up with a win over Memphis last week. Now they fall into a tough spot that is twofold. With the 4-0 start, Missouri cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2019 when it got as high as No. 22 and it is currently one spot below that and it is always a good play against opportunity to play teams entering the poll this far into the season. Additionally, this is the Tigers first true road game of the season and are being asked to win by two touchdowns. Things have not been as good for Vanderbilt as it opened 2-0 but has lost three straight games although those have been misleading. The Commodores lost to Wake Forest by 16 points but were outgained by only 61 total yards, lost to UNLV by just three points but outgained the Rebels by 24 total yards and lost to Kentucky by 17 points despite getting outgained by only 37 total yards as the Wildcats scored two defensive touchdowns. The common theme in all three losses were they were negative in turnovers and -5 combined. Vanderbilt is 0-5 ATS as well which automatically adds value, especially at home at this price. 10* (204) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our AAC Game of the Year. South Florida came into the season with no expectations, picked to finish at or near the bottom of the AAC and coming off a record of 4-29 over the last three seasons combined. The Bulls have already gotten halfway to that combined total as they are 2-2 following a win over Rice last week. The one thing they do have in their favor is a closer than expected loss to Alabama as it was defeated by score of just 17-3 but the Tide are not the same Tide. The other victory came against Florida A&M of the FCS by two touchdowns but were outgained 393-360 but had a 5-0 turnover advantage. South Florida is coming off three straight home games and lost its only road game by 17 points at Western Kentucky. Navy was crushed by Notre Dame in its opening game in Ireland and then followed that up with a ho hum win over FCS Wagner. The Midshipmen did not get a scheduling break as they had to face Memphis on a short week the next Thursday but still played well in a four-point loss, outgaining the Tigers 432-408. The break comes this week however as they are coming off their bye week following a grueling early stretch even though it was only three games. The offensive running game should be the difference and defensively, they face an offensive line that has allowed 19 sacks, tied for second most in the nation. 10* (180) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. We backed Connecticut in its season opener at home against NC State but have held back since then which has been the right move as the Huskies are off to a 0-4 start and have failed to cover the last three games. This is the third straight home game for Connecticut and while it should have defeated Florida International, the Huskies were destroyed by Duke last week. it was a bad 34-point loss, but against a very good team and now they go down in similar class yet are catching a bigger than expected number at home. This team is loaded with experience so there should be no quit and this has turned into a must win if they want to have any chance of heading back to a bowl game. Utah St. has not fared much better as it is off to a 1-3 start with the only win coming against Idaho St. of the FCS. The Aggies go from underdogs in all three FBS games to a favorite and on the road in what has been a rugged schedule start. They do not have a bye until the end of October and have alternated home and road games to start the season meaning travel every week and now they go from Logan all the way to the east coast for an early start. Utah St. has had no running game, rushing for just 268 yards on 81 carries (3.3 ypc) against FBS opponents and the Huskies have shored up their rushing defense the last two games. 10* (128) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Friday Enforcer. NC State moved to 3-1 with a road win at Virginia last Friday and the Wolfpack head back home for their second true test. They lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in their only home game against an FBS opponent and that loss against the spread is part of their 0-4 ATS record on the season. That is adding value here with NC State coming in as the underdog at home. Intangibles can be looked at this point into the season and NC State has been great on third down as it has converted 51.6 percent on offense while allowing just a 30 percent conversion rate on defense and that 21.6 percent disparity is ninth most in the FBS. Conversely, Louisville is with a positive percentage but only 5.6 percent which is good for only No. 53. The schedule can certainly play a role in these but the ranking of the two teams is only 12 spots apart. The Cardinals are 4-0 but the schedule setup tells a lot. They rolled over Murray St. is their non-FBS game while they struggled to put away both Georgia Tech and Indiana which were both away from home and decided by a combined 12 points. Louisville did roll past Boston College last week but that was at home and it was a letdown game for the Eagles coming off a near upset against Florida St. The Cardinals first three FBS have been against teams ranked at least 30 spots lower in the power rankings than NC State. Louisville has done a great job running ball as it is averaging 237.2 ypg on 6.0 ypc but face a defense that is allowing just 114.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc so this is the Cardinals biggest test on that front. 10* (114) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and while they could be 3-0, they could also be 1-2 as their last two games were decided late. Green Bay blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against Atlanta to lose 25-24 and last week, it rallied from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit to win 18-17. Two things have been evident. First off, the Packers have had the benefit of facing teams with quarterback deficiencies as Justin Fields has regressed from a great ending to last season, Desmond Ridder is simply not good as he put up a 79.8 rating in the comeback win and the Saints lost Derek Carr to a shoulder injury in the third quarter and the offense was not the same. Second, while Jordan Love orchestrated the comeback, he was inconsistent after finally facing a strong defense which will be the case again this week. He put up big ratings against Chicago and Atlanta but overall, he is completing only 53.1 percent of his passes. Not only does Green Bay see another tough defense, its own defense will finally see a quarterback that can produce. Jared Goff was not asked to sling it around last week so he only amassed 243 yards but he is completing 70 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions were on the wrong end of a coin flip in overtime against Seattle and they never saw the ball in their only loss. Defensively, generating pressure on the quarterback was an issue the first two games but both Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith get the ball out quick and last week, the Lions go to Ridder seven times and Love has not shown the ability to make consistent, quick decisions. 10* (101) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The transition to the FBS has not been a good one for Sam Houston St. as it is off to a 0-3 start with the early schedule going totally against it. The Bearkats have yet to play a game at their campus home as they have had two true road games against BYU and Houston along with a neutral site game against Air Force and this has amounted to the No. 6 hardest schedule in the country. The offense has suffered as it has been horrid as the unit is last in success rate, yards per play and points per game this season but they finally get a break playing at home and going up against an opponent that has a much different start. Jacksonville St. is 3-1 but its schedule has been the complete opposite as it is ranked No. 168 in strength. The Gamecocks have played three of its four games at home including one against an FCS opponent as it lost by 14 points in its only road game at Coastal Carolina. Jacksonville St. has offensive questions of its own, yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS foe and this despite having a +9 turnover margin which is No. 2 in the country behind Penn St. so it has not been able to take advantage of this to go along with the soft schedule. This is not an explosive offense as the Gamecocks grind it out on the ground as they average 50 carries per game which is third most behind Air Force and Army and that has put the total as a ridiculously low 36.5 which favors the underdog at an inflated price. When factoring in the strength of schedule and other metrics, this line should be closer to a pickem than a touchdown. 10* (108) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of ugly wins and it goes into a tougher than expected matchup. Offensively, something is off even though the Eagles were able to run the ball all over Minnesota with 259 yards but they cannot have that success again against a much better defensive front. The system is basically the same as last season but having a new offensive coordinator takes time to adjust to play calling. The big mismatch though is on the other side of the ball as the Eagles secondary is a mess and will be facing one of the top receiving corps in the league which can do a reversal as well and open up the running game that has been pedestrian so far. We have seen this line drop despite the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles which are going to be a very public team come kickoff. Tampa Bay is also 2-0 to start the season and it can certainly be considered a fraudulent 2-0 thank to the Buccaneers being +5 in turnover margin. While he does get a bad rap, Baker Mayfield has performed well in this offense as he is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has a 104.4 quarterback rating as he has avoided the turnovers. He will have plenty of looks downfield against this Eagles defense that has allowed 306 and 346 yards through the air in their first two games. While the Buccaneers defense has not faced an offensive line this strong yet, the fact they have allowed only 108 yards rushing in both games total still does say something. 10* (478) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Steelers came through for us Monday in a wrong side win as they were outgained 408-255 but the defense generated four turnovers, two that led to direct touchdowns saving some fantasy teams, or ruining some, along the way as well. Pittsburgh has now been outgained 799-494 in its two games and both of those were at home and now it hits the road for the first time. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has yet to hit his sophomore stride as he is ranked No. 30 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and looks lost in this offense. Part of the problem is that he has no rushing game to help him out and that is the issue on both sides. Offensively, the Steelers have rushed for 96 yards on 31 carries (3.1 ypc) and on defense, they have allowed 386 yards on 69 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is not going to get it done as the back half can only do so much. The Raiders upset Denver on the road in their opener and then jumped ahead of Buffalo 7-0 before the Bills took over last week. They are back home in Las Vegas for their home opener in hopes of getting their own running game going as they have ran for only 116 yards on 44 carries (2.6 ypc) but facing this defense can turn that around. Josh Jacobs is coming off one of his worst games ever as he carried the ball nine times for -2 yards so expect a lot more from him. The defense got torched by Josh Allen after holding Russell Wilson to just 166 yards passing the previous week and Picket will not have success. This line opened at even and move to the Steelers being the favorite but it has flipped to the Raiders side. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is off to an expected 0-2 start with a pair of division losses that could have gone either way if not or turnovers. The Panthers outgained Atlanta 281-221 but were -2 in turnovers and last Monday they could not convert in the redzone. The Carolina offense has stumbled the first two games behind rookie quarterback Bryce Young but in his defense, even though the sample size is small with just one other game played by the opposition, he has faced the No. 3 and No. 6 ranked defenses in yppl and now it will be Andy Dalton going up against the No. 30 ranked defense as Seattle is allowing 5.9 yppl and he is far from a downgrade. The running game has been just fine as the Panthers have rushed for 254 yards on 51 carries (5.0 ypc) despite Miles Sanders not breaking out yet. Seattle opened as the favorite at 4 and it jumped slightly to 4.5 and then after the Carolina loss it has moved all the way to 6 as of Wednesday. The Seahawks were outgained in regulation by 100 yards last week against Detroit after getting outgained by the Rams 426-180 so it has not gone great despite being 1-1. Give Geno Smith credit for bouncing back last week but he is still ranked just No. 18 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and with both tackles still hurt, he faces an underrated defense that is ranked No. 7 in defensive yppl. The one concern was Young coming into a hostile environment as a rookie but Dalton is experienced and better equipped for the surroundings so he will be just fine and let the defense to its thing in what looks like a field goal game either way. 10* (469) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against Cleveland on Monday night and won even though it was the wrong side as the Browns gave the game away with a pair of defensive touchdowns for the Steelers. Deshawn Watson was not good, especially in the clutch, but he went up against one of the top defenses in the league that people do not like to admit. The loss of Nick Chubb was devastating for him and not a good one for the Browns but not bad enough that they cannot overcome. They face another good defense here but they are in a good spot coming off that loss where they outgained the Steelers 408-255 but four turnovers overall did them in including the aforementioned two that directly turned into scores. Tennessee overcame an early 11-0 deficit to win in overtime against Los Angeles in a very even game where they lost the yardage battle by just one yard and it was a clean game with no turnovers on eighter side. The Titans come into a bad spot this week and while their defense looks good, they have allowed 282 and 281 yards passing the first two games which gives hope to Watson. The offense managed only 285 yards against the Saints in their first road game while settling for five field goals. Tennessee faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week after going against that tough New Orleans defense and it has another challenge here as Cleveland is the only team in the NFL where its opponent has yet to run a play in its redzone so this defense has been for real. This line opened 4.5 and went up to 5 but after Monday night, the line has come down considerably which is a big overreaction. 10* (454) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. One paper, this looks like a Miami lay as the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road while the Broncos are 0-2 with both of their losses coming at home. This is an opposite situational play based on that and we are getting value on top of backing Denver along with other factors that are not being taken into consideration. Luck factor is a big ingredient in finding value and this game fully falls into this metric with these teams on opposite ends of those ratings. The Broncos come in as the second unluckiest team at -46.4 percent as they have lost two winnable games by a combined three points. Denver was outgained by the Raiders by one yard and against Washington, it outgained the Commanders 399-388, albeit a big chunk coming on the Hail Mary, which is a slim margin but blew a 21-3 lead in the process as it fell apart down the stretch. Many are calling Russell Wilson a wash but there is more to it than a 0-2 record and an eye test as he is ranked No. 5 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats which include how yards are accumulated along with defensive pressure. Miami is the third luckiest team in the league at 43.2 percent coming off a couple games that could have gone either way. But because of the 2-0 start, the Dolphins are shooting up in the futures market to win the AFC and the Super Bowl while Tua Tagovailoa is now the favorite to win MVP and yes, he is ranked behind Wilson in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats. The records alone are factoring into the number which opened at 6 and has moved to 6.5 with 7 possibly coming thanks to 80 percent of money on Miami. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Falcons are off to a 2-0 start and were hammered when this line came out at 6 and when down to 4.5 shortly after and it continues to drop as it is down to 3.5 as of Wednesday with some 3-120 out there and a flat 3 could become available. Atlanta took care of a rookie quarterback in his first ever road game in the season opener and then was able to overcome a 12-point deficit against Green Bay last week. It has been a tale of two different offenses for the Falcons despite scoring 24 and 25 points as they put up 221 yards against the Panthers but upped that to 446 yards against Green Bay so we do not know much based on two games of 5.0 yppl and 5.8 yppl other than the fact the total of 5.3 yppl is middle of the pack and now the Falcons leave the fast turn of the dome for the first time. We played against Detroit last week as the Seahawks won in overtime with the Lions never seeing the ball and to be fair, that is a regular season rule that needs to go away. The Lions were overpriced last week against Seattle following their win over the Chiefs the previous Thursday in their opener and now we are seeing a reversal based on their loss and the Falcons undefeated start. Detroit outgained Seattle 418-393 despite not seeing the ball in overtime with 75 of those opposing yards coming after regulation. Detroit is No. 4 in the NFL in yppl at 5.9 and while the Falcons defense is ranked No. 3 in defensive yppl at 4.2, the success has mostly come in the passing defense as they have allowed only 4.2 ypa against young quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love but Jared Goff is averaging 8.1 ypa. 10* (466) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Star Attraction. USC comes in as a massive favorite which comes as no surprise as the Trojans have rolled the competition in their 3-0 start. They are averaging 59.3 ppg but they have not been tested as the last two games have come against Nevada and Stanford, ranked No. 132 and No. 105 respectively. The first game was against San Jose St. which was the best of the three at No. 78 and the Spartans were able to keep it close for a while and put up 28 points against this suspect defense. This will be their toughest opponent since then and the situation is not in their favor. USC is coming off a bye week which is insignificant here as its last two games can be constituted as byes and now the trojans hit the road for the first time with a game at Colorado on deck, also on the road. Arizona St. is off to a 1-2 start as it snuck by Southern Utah of the FCS in its opener and then lost to Oklahoma St. 27-15 before getting shutout last week against Fresno St. 29-0. The Bulldogs are a very underrated 3-0 but even with that, the Sun Devils gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 8-0 and no team is going to compete with a differential like that. To their credit, the defense played well, allowing just 350 yards of offense and holding Fresno St. to seven field goal attempts. Here, we play against teams with a turnover differential of +0.75 per game or better and after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better going up against teams with a turnover differential of -0.75 per game or worse. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. One of the late marquee matchups takes place in Happy Valley with Penn St. and Iowa squaring off in a big early conference showdown. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 while covering all three of those games which includes a win at Illinois last week in their Big Ten opener by a score of 30-13 but that was a misleading final. Penn St. won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards but were +5 in turnovers which completely skewed the game and the big win and cover are inflating this line which should be single digits according to our numbers. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 7 in our rankings which is equivalent to the biased AP Poll while Iowa comes in No. 20, higher than its No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll. This place in tough at night for opponents but this has never been a good matchup for Penn St. and it should be another epic battle. Iowa is also 3-0 and while its wins are not as big, they have been equally impressive considering the schedule ranks are separated by only nine spots so the level of competition has been very similar. The offense came to life last week which was big for the confidence of this team as they were finally able to get a running game going. It will not be easy here but the Hawkeyes still bank on one of the top defenses in the country that has allowed just 12.3 ppg and faces an offense whose numbers are inflated by a 63-7 win over Delaware. Here, we play on road teams with a scoring defense allowing 14 or fewer ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (425) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Texas St. opened the season with one of the biggest upsets of the season as it won at Baylor by 11 points as a 26.5-point underdog which immediately put the Bobcats on the map. They followed that up with a loss against UTSA by a touchdown but they were outgained by 130 total yards as it really should not have been that close. Texas St. bounced back with a resounding 77-34 win last week but that was against Jackson St. of the FCS but the Tigers are not a very good team even from that division. That victory has propelled this line to nearly the same as they were favored by last week which is a complete overreaction even though it comes against a winless team. Nevada is off to a 0-3 start that does include a loss against Idaho of the FCS but the Vandals are actually one of the best teams there, ranked No. 4 in power rating among FCS teams. The Wolf Pack were thumped by USC which is not a concern as they were 38-point underdogs and they are coming off their best effort last week as they lost to Kansas by just a touchdown that was not decided until late in the fourth quarter and they closed as four-touchdown underdogs. Texas St. has consecutive road SBC games on deck which put it in a tough spot coming off a feel good about itself win and going into a lookahead situation while facing a nonconference opponent. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off 2 or more consecutive unders and getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg on the season. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (397) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off a 10-3 season and comes into this campaign as the leading contender in the SBC West. The Jaguars are 2-1 to start the season and coming off a huge upset against Oklahoma St. last week as they won 33-7 as one touchdown underdogs with many calling it the biggest win in program history and that has inflated this number which is off by five points according to our numbers. South Alabama is a loaded team that brought back 18 starters but three key starters are out as its second leading running back from last season. The Jaguars had three home games last season following a road win and while they won all three, two were by just a touchdown as over two touchdown favorites and they open conference action next week on the road at James Madison. Central Michigan is 1-2 with bookend losses at Michigan St. and Notre Dame sandwiched around a win against New Hampshire of the FCS. The Chippewas have not done much in the passing game but this is a run first offense that brought back four of their top five rushers from last season. One of those is quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. but he missed the game last week against Notre Dame due to illness but will be back this week. He was the MAC West Offensive Play of the Week two weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, returning five or less offensive starters going up against teams returning eight or more defensive starters. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (395) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. opened the season with a pair of wins over Central Michigan and Richmond but it has all come crashing down. The Spartans were involved in the first big scandal of the college football season with head coach Mel Tucker being suspended last week, and eventually fired this week, and they were no match for Washington which came into East Lansing and rolled 41-7. Michigan St. clearly did not show up as it was unable to move the ball and while the defense was torched through the air, the distractions were too much against one of the best teams in the country. They remain home to host their conference opener which will be their last home game in a month and the line has moved in their direction and is inflated. The Terrapins are off to a 3-0 start but those wins were against Towson of the FCS, Charlotte and Virginia, the latter two ranked No. 149 and No. 110 respectively. Michigan St. is ranked No. 51 which is not good by its standards but easily the best team Maryland has faced. Additionally, all three of those games were at home and Maryland has been a suspect road team of late, going 7-17 in its last 24 road games. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has gotten off to good start with 889 yards passing just at just a 66 percent slip while throwing only five touchdowns and two interceptions. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 34 or more ppg and after scoring 37 points or more last game going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (380) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Upset Special. This is an interesting scenario where Georgia Southern has a positive misleading factor in its favor but also a few negatives that may not be taken into account with this number. It is coming off its first loss of the season against Wisconsin by 21 points but it was a misleading final as the Eagles won the yardage battle but lost the turnover margin 6-0 and no team can recover from that. While they did outgain the Badgers, Wisconsin is not a good team so the fact that yardage advantage happened should be no surprise. The two victories came against The Citadel of the FCS and a pretty bad UAB team and overall, Georgia Southern has played a schedule ranked No. 160. Ball St. opened the season as tough as it can get and even though many are calling the SEC being in a down year, the Cardinals went on the road the first two weeks at Kentucky and Georgia so going 0-2 was a given. They bounced back with a win last week against Indiana St. of the FCS which is far from a quality win but it provided confidence and a chance to cure the ills. Ball St. has played the No. 9 ranked schedule. They got a spark from the running game and will utilize that here against an Eagles defense that was torched last week on the ground and while that might not be a surprise, The Citadel did the same in the opener. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 86-41 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (350) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. One of the marquee games of the weekend will go a long way in which teams are going to make it to the ACC Championship. Florida St. will have the inside track with a win here as it could hand Clemson two conference losses and early money is banking on that happening but we do not see it. The Seminoles already own a big quality win over LSU which bodes well as far as having the experience of favoring a power opponent and winning for that matter. Obviously, the Seminoles looked horrible last week against lowly Boston College but we are not banking any of that on this play as they were clearly in lookahead mode. The big factor is the matchup as any strength they have is negated by the opposite strength from Clemson. The Tigers opened the season with a bad loss against Duke and not bad because it was Duke because the Blue Devils are an excellent team, but bad from the standpoint where they basically lost the game on their own. Clemson outgained Duke 422-374 but costly turnovers in the wrong places did them in. They have rebounded with a pair of winners over much lesser teams but that is not a bad thing as the Tigers have been able to get those kinks out. The home field edge will come into play here and it would be even more so if it was at night but it is still a great schedule spot. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (336) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. All four games on Friday feature home underdogs and the shortest of the bunch is San Jose St. and it is no surprise that Air Force is dominating the early money but this line is low for a reason and betting on just the record will be the popular play here. San Jose St. is off to a 1-3 start during nonconference action with the only win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS. Two of those losses were against USC and Oregon St. from the Pac 12 with the latter being a sleeper contender, and Toledo, which is a top contender in the MAC. While the talent level in the conference is not top notch, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is one of the top signal callers in the MWC as he is a Preseason Second Team selection after a very underrated season a year ago where he threw for 3,251 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Overall, nine starters on offense are back. Air Force is off to a 3-0 start and has dominated everywhere but it has played no one. The Falcons are a top team in the conference no doubt and have won eight straight games going back to last season but this is definitely a challenge. They have played Robert Morris of the FCS, San Houston St. which is one year removed from the FCS and a rebuilding Utah St. team so this is easily the first real test and it comes in their first true road game. The Falcons are dominating on the ground as per usual but gone from last season is quarterback Haaziq Daniels who was a three-year starter and ran the triple option to perfection. San Jose. St. has five starters back on defense and while it will not be easy, they can slow it down. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (314) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The advance line opened at 9.5 and moved to 10 by Sunday night following the Saquon Barkley injury and has now shot up to 10.5 and 11 in some spots after the news that Barkley will be out a few games. it is a big blow to both Barkley, who is playing for a contract and incentives, and to the Giants but nothing they cannot get past here. The early money is all over San Francisco for obvious reasons and it will likely continue to pour in on the 49ers leading into Thursday. New York is coming off a must needed win and it took a huge second half comeback and while it takes a big step up in competition here, the linesmakers know that. After six quarters of dreadful offense, the Giants finally got things going in the second half against the Cardinals and they can carry that momentum into Thursday. It is a short week with a second consecutive road game but New York stayed out west so it is not at a big disadvantage from that standpoint. The 49ers have won both of their games without much resistance from the Steelers or Rams and while coming into the season as a public team, they are even more so now. From a situational standpoint, they do not have an edge here coming off a divisional game while also playing on a short week in the same timeframe. The defense did show vulnerabilities against the pass last week as they were unable to contain rookie Puka Nacua despite him being targeted 20 times. This is a spot where the Giants rookie Jalin Hyatt could see more coming his way after being targeted only twice last week but gaining 89 yards. Offensively, quarterback Brock Purdy has been decent yet unspectacular and the Giants defense can build on its momentum as well. Excellent contrarian spot. Here, we play on road teams after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) New York Giants

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Georgia St. is off to a 3-0 start with both FBS wins coming by at least 16 points. The Panthers have yet to be tested and they did get a scare in their opener against Rhode Island of the FCS as they won by a touchdown with the difference maker ending being an interception returned for a score. They are coming off their first road game of the season which came against a bad Charlotte team that is expected to finish near the bottom of the 14-team AAC. A bright spot was quarterback Darren Grainger who went off for 466 yards on 27-33 passing and three touchdowns. He will be facing a much tougher test against a Coastal Carolina defense that is allowing just 202 ypg passing on only 55.4 percent completions. The Chanticleers rolled over Duquesne last week in their FCS game and while that was not a good indicator of what to expect, they do have one solid opponent they have played. Coastal Carolina went to UCLA and played the Bruins tough as they fell 27-13 and it was a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and just a one possession game with less than six minutes remaining. That made it four straight losses for the Chanticleers going back to last season but all of those game were away from home and they have rolled in their two home games since and going back, the SBC contenders are 21-2 in their last 23 home games with one of those losses coming against Georgia St. two years ago by two points. As a matter of fact, these teams have met over the last six years with the home team yet to win and that streak finally comes to an end this season behind the best player on the field in quarterback Grayson McCall who can show his stuff in a stand alone game. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Overreaction time ends in Week Two on Monday night between the Browns and Steelers. Obviously, the line needs to be reactive to what happened last week but the adjustments can be too big, which is the case here. The Steelers were -1 on the advance line, but because they were hammered by the 49ers at home coupled with the Cleveland win at home, the line has flipped over a field goal. As a comparison, Pittsburgh closed +1 against San Francisco and now it is getting a point and a half more against a team not on the same level as the 49ers. The Steelers were dominated on both sides of the ball but that was against arguably the best roster in the league and we will get a better effort this week and they have the advantage of remaining home on a short week. Also factoring into the line is the fact Cleveland rolled over Cincinnati last week but the Browns had an advantageous situation. The weather played a big factor as it took away the prolific Bengals passing attack and adding to that was that quarterback Joe Burrow missed all of camp with a calf injury and his rust was evident. Cleveland held Cincinnati to only 142 total yards and while it does possess a strong defense facing a team that put up just 239 yards of offense last week, it will not be a repeat. This is a great bounce back situation with a line in our favor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems coming off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (292) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. The Giants had one of the worst efforts in Week One as they were the only teams that did not score a point but we cannot go off one just one week in this situation. Unfortunately, we are not getting a similar overreaction line with New York like other teams but that is based on the opponent. This has already turned into a huge game for the Giants as they are looking right at a 0-3 start should they not show up here as they have to travel to San Francisco next week and there is no chance of a look ahead. Coaching is huge for a recovery and last season under Brian Daboll, the Giants went 7-0 ATS following a loss. Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL with a new staff and a poor quarterback on a bad roster. The Cardinals are coming off a valiant effort against Washington last week as they lost by just four points but were fortunate. The Commanders gave it up three times while the Arizona offense could do nothing, generating only 210 yards on 3.8 yppl. While they face a defense that allowed 40 points, it was not the defense that was at fault as New York allowed only 248 yards to the Cowboys. Offensively, Daniel Jones was under pressure the whole game and it will be a different story this week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (279) New York Giants

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We have seen a ton of line movement in a lot of games this week and this is one of those based on the results from last week. Seattle looked atrocious against the Rams on both sides of the ball as it was outgained 426-180 and anyone who was on the Seahawks are certainly hopping off this week. The advance line was 2.5 points and has skyrocketed up to 6 points based on that game as well as the other side of things. Typically no team in the NFL looks as good or bad as they did the previous week and we are expecting a bounce back game from the Seahawks. Detroit is off the upset on Thursday night against Kansas City and while it did outgain the Chiefs in the victory, the difference in the game was the pick six and the fact that the Chiefs receivers were abysmal. The Lions have moved up the power rankings and remain one of just a handful of teams expected to contend in the NFC but now they are overpriced. Detroit could very well be deserving of having an inflated line but it has not really proven much yet especially this early in the season. Offensively, the Lions do have a good matchup but on the other side, the defense is still a work in progress and Seattle will certainly be better than last week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (269) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against the Bills and thought that was as dead bet four plays into the game but the Jets defense came through and stifled the Bills once again similar to both games last season. Buffalo is back home and while some are already writing them off, that is a horrible take as this is still a top 10 team and expect Josh Allen to recover. He goes from facing one of the best defenses in the NFL to one of the worst and being at home helps. He has gone 9-4 ATS in his last 13 games following a loss. The defense did catch a break with Aaron Rodgers going down and while they struggled to stop the run, their gameplan was shot and will be ready for a run heavy opponent this week. The Raiders pulled off the mild upset in Denver but is Los Angeles a good team or is Denver once again bad? We lean to the former. There were missed reactions about the Raiders coming into the season as they were anywhere from a sleeper contender to one of the worst team in the league and despite a good defensive effort last week, this defense is not good and that will show up here. Russell Wilson was unable to get the ball down field but still completed 79 percent of his passes and Allen brings in a whole different dynamic. Five of the last eight wins last season were by one possession but those were all after Allen was injured and now we get him healthy coming off an awful game. 10* (274) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs were unable to please the home crowd following their Super Bowl win as they lost an ugly opener against Detroit, a game they could have started to put away but mistakes cost them. Patrick Maholmes had a fairly average night but he was not totally at fault as of his 18 incompletions, eight were flat out dropped passes. Kansas City was missing two of its top players on each side of the ball in the opener but both are expected back. Tight end Travis Kelce will return to help in the passing game on offense and that is huge against this defense that is not good in the middle and Kelce exposed that last season with 20 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the two meetings. Jacksonville opened its season with a victory but that was against the Colts which are one of the worst teams in the league and now the Jaguars go from facing a rookie quarterback to going up against Maholmes coming off a loss. The Jaguars allowed 280 yards to the Colts but it is a different story this week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has come into his own after some early struggles but will face a tougher test here. He struggled against the Chiefs in the playoffs last season and while his regular season game was much better, he was still sacked five times. Last week against Kansas City he would have been in a better place but now Chris Jones is expected back, which adds a whole new element. 10* (275) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Wyoming has quietly put together two straight winning seasons and over the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have finished below .500 only once and that was the 2-4 COVID season in 2020. Head coach Craig Bohl has turned the program around and Wyoming should be better this season as it returns 15 starters including 10 from an already strong defense. They opened the season with an impressive come-from-behind win over Texas Tech in double overtime as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit. Wyoming followed that up with a less than impressive win over Portland St. by 14 points but a letdown was not a surprise especially with this game on deck. While this is their first road game, the spot and line set up great. Texas is coming off a monumental win at Alabama last week to improve to 2-0 and it has moved up to No. 4 in the AP Poll and in its own letdown spot this week with its Big XII opener on deck next week at Baylor. To their credit last season, they rolled over UTSA following their one point loss against Alabama but a loss is different than a win and that certainly affects the future line going forward. The Longhorns have played mistake free football as they have yet to turn it over, going +5 in turnover margin and while they were able to move the ball well against the Crimson Tide, they go up against a sneaky good defense here. 10* (201) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Star Attraction. Mississippi is coming off a fight last week at Tulane as it was a misleading final score. The Rebels were up by just one touchdown with less than two minutes remaining and were able to make it a two-score game on a 56-yard field goal and then scored on a fumble recovery to seal it. They outgained the Green Wave by only 21 total yards and this outcome probably would have been a lot different has Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt been able to play. That score result as well as the 73-7 shellacking of Mercer to open the season is inflating this number and it continued to rise after opening. Mississippi will not have an easy out here and with Alabama on deck, there could very well be a look ahead. Georgia Tech is 1-1 as it opened with a tough five-point loss against Louisville as it won the yardage battle but was -1 in turnovers and then bounced back last week with a 48-13 win over South Carolina St. Even though that was an FCS opponent, the Yellow Jackets have to feel good about their offense that has already scored more points in both games than they did in 11 games last season. This is nearly an identical situation as last year when it won an FCS game and then faced Mississippi only to lose 42-0 but that was with Geoff Collins as head coach who was fired immediately after. Brent Key has this team believing and is 5-5 since taking over with two of those losses coming by one possession. 10* (189) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arkansas went through the motions last week against an undermanned Kent St. team and won by a score of just 28-6. The Razorbacks are 2-0 as they were favored by 38 points in both of those games and this is an important game to put together a solid effort on both sides of the ball. It is a brutal stretch coming up with four games against LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama with none of those taking place at home. The Razorbacks have held Western Carolina and Kent St. to 102 yards rushing on 65 carries (1.6 ypc) and while this will be a bigger test, it is not that much of a challenge coming in. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson has been efficient as he has completed nearly 74 percent of his passes for 382 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. BYU is also 2-0 but it is an unimpressive 2-0. The Cougars narrowly defeated Sam Houston St. 14-0, its first year at the FBS level, and then took out Southern Utah 41-16 last week but they outgained the Thunderbirds by only 48 total yards. They are led by quarterback Keydon Slovis who is with his third program in three years and he has been average fitting into another new system, completing just over 64 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. The running game has been non-existent as BYU has rushed for 158 yards on 57 carries (2.8 ypc). Tough atmosphere in the first night game in Fayetteville this season. 10* (198) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Month. Florida caught a tough scheduling break to open the season as it had to travel to Utah which came in on a 27-2 run its last 29 home games. The No. 10 ranked defensive line in the country held the Gators to 13 yards rushing on 20 carries and without that, they could get nothing going. Quarterback Graham Mertz played a solid game going 31-44 for 333 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Florida got its game together last week against McNeese St. and while it was far from a test, it got the needed reps to get the balance back and rushed for 327 yards with Mertz not needed and not playing the whole game. He can light this Tennessee defense up as the Volunteers were No. 128 last season in passing defense and came into this season with the No. 8 ranked secondary in the SEC. Tennessee had no issue with Virginia to open the season but came out slow last week against Austin Peay and won by a score of just 30-13. Call it a possible lookahead to this game but giving up 260 yards passing to the Governors is uncalled for. Quarterback Joe Milton III is still inaccurate while he did not play well in his lone road start at Vanderbilt and this is a much tougher test. The Volunteers will try and establish the run where it has been pretty average and Florida has been solid in both game stopping the run as it improved its talent along the front seven in the transfer portal. Upset alert in Gainesville. 10* (176) Florida Gators

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Upset Special. North Texas came up small for us last week as the Mean Green lost to Florida International by a touchdown despite outgaining the Panthers as turnovers did them in. Three to be exact including an interception that was returned 40 yards for a touchdown. North Texas now goes from an 11.5-point road favorite to a 4.5-point road underdog against a team that is not 15 points better. The 0-2 start is playing into the line which is an overreaction. The defense has been bad over the first two games but they face an offense that has struggled against FBS foes and with a bye week on deck, full focus will be on display. Louisiana Tech is off to a 2-1 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St. last week, that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the two FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by five points. They did win the yardage battle by a 268 yards but they struggled in key situations which led to five field goal attempts while committing a pair of costly turnovers. This is the first season for quarterback Hank Bachmeier who is a transfer from Boise St. and he has regressed each game while completing 67 percent of his passes for 684 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. 10* (179) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. East Carolina has started 0-2 but it has been a tale of two different scenarios. The Pirates went to Ann Arbor and hung around admirably against Michigan in the 30-3 loss as they held the Wolverines to 122 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.9 ypc). Last week, they had their home opener against Marshall and East Carolina had a 13-10 lead before a lengthy weather delay completely changed the flow of the game and the Pirates came out of the break flat and allowed 21 fourth quarter points to lose 31-13. East Carolina has qualified for a bowl the last two seasons and while they lost a few key starters, a couple games under their belt in a benefit. This is a great bounce back spot as the Pirates are 14-3 ATS in heir last 17 games as single digit underdogs when coming off a double-digit loss. Appalachian St. is coming off a tough loss against North Carolina for a second straight season as it lost in overtime 40-34. The Mountaineers got bludgeoned on the ground, allowing 319 yards on 45 carries (7.1 ypc) after allowing 134 yards on 27 carries (5.0 ypc) against Gardner Webb of the FCS where they outgained the Bulldogs by just 29 total yards. Like the Pirates, they are down a lot of starters form last season including quarterback Chase Brice and Joey Aguilar was bottled up last week. Appalachian St. has been awful in this role of late, going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when laying points against FBS opponents. 10* (147) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Kansas St. is off to a 2-0 start coming off its 10-4 season and based on this line, last year is still being taken into consideration. The Wildcats were favored by 14.5 points against Troy at home last week so if that was on the road, they would be favored by only five more points than they are against a team from the SEC this week. Both wins have been impressive on the scoreboard but they were against SE Missouri St. of the FCS and while the Trojans were riding a 12-game winning streak, their first win came against Stephen F. Austin where they allowed 30 points. Offensively, Kansas St. still has a good quarterback in Will Howard they lost running back Deuce Vaughn and four of their top six receivers and finally face a defensive test. Missouri has not exactly looked impressive in its two victories as it did roll South Dakota but failed to cover and then narrowly beat Middle Tennessee St. last week by four points. This is a good matchup despite the uptick in the level of competition. Despite the loss of Vaughn, the Wildcats are a run first team and Missouri has held its first two opponents to 109 yards rushing on 64 carries (1.7 ypc). Yes, this came against two lesser teams but the Tigers bring back eight starters that improved its rushing yards allowed by over 100 ypg from 2021 and gave up just 3.7 ypg and that is against heavy SEC competition. They are out for some revenge following the 40-12 loss in Manhattan last season. 10* (130) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. UTSA has come up on the short end of covers in its first two games and now it is in a situation in the spotlight to show what this team is actually made of. The Roadrunners opened the season with a three-point loss against Houston and then defeated Texas St. by seven points last week and based on the stats, both should have been easy wins. They outgained Houston and Texas St. by 78 and 130 total yards respectively but they are down 4-0 in turnovers which is the contributing factor. UTSA has controlled the line of scrimmage as it has rushed for 366 yards on 89 carries (4.1 ypc) while allowing just 137 yards on 64 carries (2.1 ypc) and this should come as no surprise as the Roadrunners came into the season with the No. 5 ranked offensive line and No. 1 ranked defensive line in the AAC. Army is also off to a 1-1 start but its competition has been a lot lighter. The Black Knights lost to ULM in their first game despite being an 8.5-point favorite but bounced back last week with a 57-0 win over Delaware St. of the FCS which is bad enough but it is ranked No. 108 out of 128 FCS teams. While it rolled last week, Army was outgained by the Warhawks as the offense still needs work. It is a new look Army team on offense this season s head coach Jeff Monken replaced his nine-year offensive coordinator despite averaging 5.8 yppl last season, the most since 2017, with Drew Thatcher who is implementing a new offensive shotgun zone read scheme. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc and after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (112) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Week One overreactions will be prevalent in the lines this week and it starts with the first game of Week Two based on score results. Minnesota hits the road following an opening loss at home against Tampa Bay 20-17 and we easily won that one with the Buccaneers outright victory. The Vikings were unfortunate as they outgained Tampa Bay 369-242 but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and it is rare to pull out a victory with that discrepancy. Minnesota was unable to produce any sort of running game as it rushed for just 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while Kirk Cousins was able to move the ball at will with 344 yards on 33-44 passing, he was responsible for all three turnovers with one interception and two fumbles. The defense played good enough to win and will need another strong effort. The Eagles won in New England 25-20 as they nearly blew a 16-0 first quarter lead. Philadelphia scored its first touchdown of the season on a 70-yard interception return as the offense was not very good. The Eagles were outgained 382-251 as they struggled on third down going 4-13 and were forced into four field goals and play calling was a concern with new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and it could take time for this unit to come together. The defense did a good job limiting the Patriots rushing attack but Mac Jones threw for 316 yards with that one interception being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Signature Enforcer. The Jets were in the playoff hunt last season as they rolled into Week 13 with a 7-4 record but went on to lose their final six games to finish 7-10 as the offense could not get out of its own way. New York averaged only 11 ppg over those final six games while scoring just 15 points combined over the final three games so it was clear adjustments had to be made on that side of the ball. Overall, the Jets were 30th in EPA per play and they made the splash move of the offseason with the trade to get Aaron Rodgers and added to that with the signing of running back Dalvin Cook late into training camp to possess one of the best one-two running back options with a healthy Breece Hall behind him. While the offense has no where to go but up, the defense of New York will be a difference maker all season. The Jets ranked No. 6 EPA per play on defense and it did its job against Buffalo last season, holding the Bills to 17 and 20 points in the two meetings and those two games were two of the three lowest point totals for the Bills during the regular season with the other being 19 points scored in Miami in September in the oppressive heat. Quarterback Josh Allen posted a 64.4 passer rating in those games while completing less than 56 percent of his passes albeit being injured in one of those games. The line swing from last season is huge as the Bills were favored by 10 points here last November but are still the favorite and not in a good situation as opening Monday night divisional favorites are 4-17-1 ATS when the total is upward of 42. 10* (482) New York Jets

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Star Attraction. This line has surprised a few with Chicago actually being favored in this game and the early money has proven that with this line opening at 3 and being bet down to a point as of Tuesday afternoon. The Bears are a team still in transition but the signs are pointing up and namely, those of quarterback Justin Fields. He took some early lumps but last season, he showed what he is capable of. He played his best against the best as he had a 103.4 passer rating against playoff teams last year which was 19.22 points better than his total 2022 rating and also 23.7 points better than his career passer rating of 79.7. Green Bay is not a playoff team but still a good team and a step up in the division. And now he has D.J. Moore to throw to. With Aaron Rodgers and his 24-5 record against Chicago departed, this is the chance for the Bears to finally strike and why not right out of the gate. The Packers have a solid roster and are expected to contend in the NFC North based on the odds but actually have only a one game higher win total than the Bears at 7.5. The Wild Card here obviously is Trey Lance who is taking over at quarterback and all indications are that he is ready but is he ready for Game One on the road in a brutal environment? We say not yet. While the Bears defense was bad last season at No. 31 in yards per play, they will be better, yet on the other side, Green Bay was not much better at No. 28. 10* (470) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Rams went through an injury plagued season last year and bottomed out at 5-12 after winning the Super Bowl. The numbers are calling for Los Angeles to not be good once again as it has a win total of just 6.5 and is at +1,000 to win the NFC West but this could very well be a surprise team, that is if they can stay healthy. They are unfortunately most likely going to be down Cooper Kupp in this one with his hamstring injury but the offense should be just fine with a healthy Matthew Stafford at quarterback and good replacements behind Kupp along with the rebound of Cam Akers. Seattle was a bad team defensively and while it brought in some good pieces, there is still a lot of questions after finishing No. 23 in yards per play. Overall, Seattle was a pleasant surprise last season but there should be regression and that should come from quarterback Geno Smith as potential success this season is for him to at least replicate what he did last season. But he faded down the stretch with over half of his 11 interceptions coming in the last six games. He completed 64 percent or more of his passes in all of his first 12 games but did so just once in his last five. He won Comeback Player of the Year with no expectations but now the pressure is on. The Rams defense is getting younger, quicker, and it should be stronger as long as the rotation up front is better around Aaron Donald. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We are going to the first lined game of the schedule with Carolina heading to Atlanta in a divisional opener. This number is where it typically stands for a divisional game although it has gone up a half-point in some places but that should not be a factor here. Atlanta is coming off consecutive 7-10 seasons under coach Arthur Smith, who has stated that there has been noticeable energy and confidence throughout the summer and the locker room atmosphere is different and in a good way. The Falcons have made improvements, most notably on defense where they were No. 27 overall and No. 23 in points allowed as they signed safety Jessie Bates III, defensive linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell and linebacker Kaden Elliss. Offensively, Desmond Ridder has the job at quarterback after making four starts last season with each one getting progressively better. He has the weapons including rookie running back Bijan Robinson who is expected to be a playmaker. Carolina is starting fresh with new head coach Frank Reich and a rookie starter at quarterback in Bryce Young. He is surrounded by several recently added signees in running back Miles Sanders, tight end Hayden Hurst and receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. The issue is Young is still a rookie and going back over a decade, rookie quarterbacks on the road are 21-120-1. The Panthers defense is good but below average and that will not be enough here. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Sunday Signature Enforcer. The Vikings were one of the positive surprises in the league last season as they ended up 13-4 and won the NFC North by four games and there is definitely going to be regression. The line dictates they start right where they left off but the problem is where they left off was not good as they fell at home to the Giants in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and that was probably a truer indication of the teams than its regular season record. Minnesota was 11-0 in one score games last season and it won seven of those games by less than what it is laying here and the Vikings finished the season No. 1 in NFL Luck Ratings and yes that is an actual thing. The offense revolves around wide receiver Justin Jefferson with quarterback Kirk Cousins getting the ball to him as much as possible and the addition of rookie Jordan Addison will aide in the loss of Adam Theilen. The loss of Dalvin Cook is significant as the running game is unproven. Defensively, Minnesota was horrible as it finished No. 30 in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay can benefit from that with Baker Mayfield taking over at quarterback. No, he has not been good but he has been put in some bad situations with revolving coaches and coordinators and has plenty of weapons here. Defensively, Tampa Bay finished 11th in opponent EPA per play last season and should remain strong in 2023 with a top front seven unit. Overinflated line. 10* (461) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. UCLA is coming off a win over Coastal Carolina by 14 points that took a 13-0 fourth quarter to get it done but it was sloppy as the Bruins won the yardage battle by only 76 total yards while throwing three interceptions from their quarterback due as neither Ethan Garbers or Dante Moore took charge of the offense. While a lot of teams simply play fast which makes them immune to the new play clock rules, UCLA does not as they are more methodical and head coach Chip Kelly voice his displeasure for the rule change and this could be an issue in the early stages of the season until they get into that comfort zone. The Bruins hit the road in a tough environment as big favorites where they cannot be trusted at this point. San Diego St. snuck past of Ohio in its opener and what looked like a cakewalk last week against Idaho St. as a 34-point favorite turned into a closer than expected game as the Aztecs won by just six points. The Bengals did score a garbage touchdown with under a minute left but it was uninspiring and can be chalked up to a lookahead to this game. The passing game has been nonexistent as San Diego St. threw for only 85 yards against Idaho St. after throwing for just 164 yards against Ohio but Jalen Mayden has gone 30-46 so the efficiency is there, just nothing being broken away. That should come in time and that could be here after Grayson McCall went 27-42 for 271 yards but had two costly interceptions. Live underdog with a lot of points to work with. 10* (324) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota escaped with a win against Nebraska as it benefitted from two late turnovers by the Huskers that led to the final 10 points of the game to secure the backdoor win. The Gophers were able to stop the Nebraska passing game, holding it to 114 yards through the air but the other three facets were bad. Minnesota allowed 181 yards rushing on 37 carries (4.9 ypc) while its own running game was nonexistent as it rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2 ypc) so that alone should have put them on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Gophers had to replace four-year starter Tanner Morgan at quarterback and it showed. Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 196 yards which is not dreadful but he was only 24-44 and threw a pick. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 last season and was co-champions of the MAC West and the Eagles are in the conversation of contending in the division again. They are coming off an uninspiring win over Howard last week as they built a 28-6 lead and let the gas off following a pair of kickoff returns for touchdowns. Granted, that can skew a score but it also skewed the stats as the Eagles were outgained overall because of that as those two scores took possessions away from the offense. The Eagles have the second rated secondary in the MAC which is bad news for the weak Minnesota passing game, to go along with the best special teams in the conference and those two intangibles alone can sway an entire game and with this line, we have a ton to play with. 10* (347) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. Rice hung around for a while at Texas last week as it was down just 16-3 at halftime but the athletes of the Longhorns took over with a 21-0 third quarter and the Owls fell 37-10 but were able to stay within the big number. They are back home for this rivalry game and take a big step down in class while still catching a big number. Despite going 5-7 last season, they were able to participate in a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams to fill the 41 bowls and Rice topped the list of 5-7 teams on Academic Progress Rate. The Owls have 15 starters back so there is plenty of experience and they added former blue chip quarterback J.T. Daniels who played at Georgia and West Virginia and while he was not good last week, he will get there in his second game. Houston escaped with a 17-14 win over UTSA despite getting outgained 417-334 as it benefitted from a 3-0 turnover edge that led to a 14-point swing. Allowing that many yards and few amount of points is an anomaly so it was a complete misleading final score. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and the opening game numbers showed that as it was bailed out. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers and while they allowed only 14 points, it should have been much worse. They are arguably the better team but not by much if at all and this line is not pairing up with that. 10* (358) Rice Owls

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Star Attraction. Here we have two teams coming off opposite results and the line is reflecting that as this line has flipped favorites from two weeks ago. We played against Boise St. last week as it was overmatched against Washington in the 56-19 loss. They head back to Boise for their home opener and it will be a test for sure the Broncos still possess one of the best home fields in the country and this is just the third time in the last decade plus they have been home underdogs. The Broncos allowed 490 yards passing which was what was expected with a young secondary against an elite quarterback on the road. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability and looked decent at times last week with 244 yards passing but overall it was not great. Eight additional starters are back and they face a weaker defense this week. UCF rolled over Kent St. which is arguably the worst team in the FBS (preseason rank 132 of 133 teams) so take it for what it is worth. The Knights could not be stopped offensively as they racked up 723 total yards but John Rhys Plumlee still threw two interceptions against that defense and heads to a tough place. The defense was pretty good last year and have seven starters back but benefitted from an easy early schedule where they allowed only 14.3 ppg in their first six games but gave up 30.6 ppg in the final eight games against decent and not even great offenses. 10* (382) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. North Texas came up small for us last week and that was a bad read on California which has definitely improved. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, they will be better than what we saw last week. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. They go from facing a Pac 12 team to a doormat team from C-USA. We have seen this line come down from opening because of the blowout loss from North Texas and not because Florida International has done anything special. The Panthers have played two games as they lost the opener at Louisiana Tech by only five points which may look good but they were outgained 450-182 as they benefitted from turnovers and the inability of the Bulldogs to covert which led to five field goal attempts. They followed that up with a 14-12 win over Maine of the FCS where they were outgained again 378-305. While a switch at quarterback led to 292 yards passing, Keyone Jenkins was just 15-30 and on the flip side, they were outrushed 165-13 (4.0-0.5). Not a good look. 10* (373) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. Ohio is coming off a win over Long Island last week following a Week 0 loss against San Diego St. and it was not a pretty victory. The Bobcats won 27-10 which did not come close to covering the 34-point spread and while the defense did its job, the offense was putrid as they gained only 303 total yards. They relied on the running game as they threw the ball only 15 times and that was due to a lack of confidence. Ohio lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke after he played only two series against San Diego St. in its opener and he was absent last week which puts the Bobcats in a tough situation here. Backups C.J. Harris and Parker Navaro cannot win games with their arms as there is little trust. Rourke could possibly go here but they might not chance it with a massive revenge game next week against Iowa St. and they do not want to further risk him heading into MAC season where they are expected to make a championship run. Florida Atlantic was two points away from bowl eligibility last season as it lost its final game to Western Kentucky 32-31 to finish 5-7 and good things are expected this season with a trip to the AAC Championship in play. The Owls have 18 starters back and are coming off a 42-20 win over Monmouth as they let up the gas in the third quarter in a very balanced offensive attack where they rushed for 213 yards and threw for 280 yards behind a great performance from Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson. Lay it early if possible before the official Rourke decision. 10* (368) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. UAB welcomed in the Trent Dilfer era with a 35-6 win over North Carolina A&T and it was a game where the Blazers knew what was coming with the Aggies running the ball 41 times while throwing it only eight times and with a talent discrepancy, they were no match. Things will be a lot tougher this week as they not only face a strong FBS opponent but one that will bring a new element. The jury is still out after facing a team from the FCS as UAB has a roster full of questions as it brings back only seven starters overall from last season, three on offense and four on defense. Jacob Zeno was spectacular at quarterback last week going 38-41 for 291 yards and three touchdowns but he will have a much bigger test to overcome here as his inexperienced line that came into the season with only 11 total starts could be overwhelmed. It is a short line as this is a public team with the known name of Dilfer and past success but this is a rebuilding year. Georgia Southern blanked the Citadel 34-0 to win its opener and it also goes up in class but it is not a huge leap to a weak FBS team. Ironically, the Eagles also faced a team that threw it only eight times so the secondary will get a challenge it has not seen yet but should be more than up to the task. Offensively, the Eagles moved from the option to a more spread offense last season and it worked and now David Brin is at quarterback and he looked good and should once again behind one of the best lines in the conference. 10* (370) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. UTSA killed us last week as it lost in Houston 17-14 in a game it should have won but mistakes cost the roadrunners. They outgained the Cougars 417-334 and that advantage would normally cover any 2.5-point spread handicapping turnovers is nearly impossible and it came from an unexpected source. Quarterback Frank Harris is in his seventh season and holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense but he cost them the game as he tossed three interceptions on his first three drives of the second half. The first came at the Houston 22-yard line and the last led to the eventual winning touchdown for the Cougars. It is safe to say, he is ready to make amends for that especially in their home opener where local philanthropist Harvey E. Najim purchased 7,100 tickets to make this place full. Texas St., not Colorado, is coming off the biggest upset last week as it went to Baylor and defeated the Bears by 11 points as a 27-point underdog. The Bobcats were outgained by 83 yards as the defense allowed 524 yards but forced four field goal attempts as Baylor was not clutch and also committed two turnovers. That victory coupled with the UTSA loss is keeping this line down even though it has been bet up slightly since opening. More shocking is the fact that Texas St. has been picked to finish dead last in the SBC as it has only 11 starters back and is working with a ton of transfers. now it is time for UTSA to roll. 10* (342) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Overreaction or underrated? Maybe it is a little bit of both for Colorado as it stunned TCU last week as a three-touchdown underdog and we are seeing upwards of a 12-point line swing as the Buffaloes were +8.5 just two weeks ago at MGM. Colorado won with 87 new players on the roster and while it was a big upset, a lot of the blame has to go on the Horned Frogs who had to replace a ton from their playoff team of last season. With the victory, the Buffaloes have entered the AP Top 25 which is a joke to begin with and this is a typical overreaction. The line will be big behind Colorado at the ticket window and we are already seeing 80 percent of the money on the Buffaloes and this is before the majority of the public has put their money in. Nebraska is coming off a loss at Minnesota in a game it could have and should have won. The Huskers had a 295-251 yardage advantage including 181-55 on the ground but were -3 in turnovers. Two of those turnovers came in the last five minutes of the game right around midfield when Nebraska had a 10-3 lead and those led to the final 10 points for the Gophers. It was a very disappointing loss for the Huskers and head coach Matt Rhule in his debut but they will come off the mat and be ready while Colorado is still celebrating. The scheduling is big as well as the Huskers will have had a couple extra days to get ready while Colorado is playing on a normal schedule coming off an up and down game in extremely hot and humid weather. 10* (317) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. This is an intriguing opening night matchup with the reining Super Bowl Champions against one of the top sleeper teams coming into the season. Kansas City won its final five regular season games to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit against the Eagles to claim its second Super Bowl in four years and there is little reason to believe they will not be in the running again. The number is fairly big in this matchup but giving head coach Andy Reid this much time to prepare, the Chiefs will be ready. Counting just the regular season and excluding the COVID year, Kansas City is 28-5 at home and will no doubt want to make a statement. The Lions will want to make their own statement as well as they are hyped up for a big season and are the favorites to win the NFC North at +140 and fourth in the NFC at +1,100 to win the conference. Detroit closed strong last season with wins in eight of its last 10 games but only three of those wins were against playoff teams and two of those were at home. Early money has come in on the Lions dropping this line from 7 to 6.5 in some places and that is under the key number we want if attainable. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. We do not expect the Chiefs to miss the playoffs anyway and they fall into the great spot of hosting this game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-3 although one of those losses was last season with the Rams. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Monday signature Enforcer. After finishing no worse than No. 3 in the final CFP rankings for six straight years, the Tigers finished No. 19 and No. 7 the last two seasons and they are ready to get back to the top. Clemson is ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP Poll and is the slight favorite to win the ACC but nothing is guaranteed and it is being overpriced because of what should be the norm. The Tigers bring back a ton this season after going 11-3 and they are finally settled at the quarterback spot with Cade Klubnik taking over for the inconsistent D.J. Uiagalelei who transferred out to Oregon St. But it will not be a seamless transition as two of the top receivers are gone but he is behind a very strong offensive line. Clemson regressed defensively but should get back to its dominance but this is not an easy test. Duke put together a 9-4 season last year and some will think of it as a fluke because it was considered a soft schedule but teams cannot dictate who they play, it just comes to them and the Blue Devils took care of business. The four losses were all by one possession and by just 16 points combined so it could have been even better. Duke did benefit from a +16 turnover margin and that tends to trend back toward the mean the following season but there is more than enough to make up for that. The Blue Devils have 18 starters back including 10 on offense led by quarterback Riley Leonard who grades out as the second best quarterback in the ACC heading into the season. The defense improved by 17.7 ppg and nearly 170 ypg from 2021 and that can be attributed to the defensive mind of head coach Mike Elko. 10* (236) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. Head coach Brian Kelly took over an LSU program with no expectations and led them to a 10-4 season. This team is loaded with experience and talent and this first game will be a true indication of where it has come. Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the way last season as he threw for over 2,900 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 885 yards and 11 touchdowns. One issue that has to be addressed is pass protection as LSU was the second worst in the SEC in sacks allowed but four starters are back and it will be better. The remaining top four rushers are all back, although John Emery is out here, and the Tigers added Logan Diggs from Notre Dame where he ran for 822 yards. The Tigers have improved defensively each of the last two years and are stacked for improvement again. Florida St. is getting a lot of sleeper CFP love and rightfully so. The Seminoles closed out last season with six straight wins, are right behind Clemson at +155 to win the ACC and have entered this season ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll. Quarterback Jordan Travis was Second Team ACC last season and is exceptional but he lost a lot of production from his receiving corps and while the transfer portal will help, that could take some time and the tigers will be keying in on Johnny Wilson. The offensive line is solid but this will be the toughest defense it sees all season. The Seminoles improved dramatically on defense last season but had a tough time against the run and that will be a problem here. LSU was 10-1 when going for 140 yards and Florida St. allowed at least that six times. 10* (231) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Tulane had a magical season in 2022 as it went 12-2, tied with the 1998 team for most wins in school history, culminated by an amazing comeback in the Cotton Bowl against USC. We see a regression for sure and while it will not be same as that 1999 team that went 3-8, the Green Wave caught a lot of breaks last year catching some teams at the right place at the right time. Six starters are back on offense including Second Team AAC quarterback Michael Pratt who was sensational but all of his playmakers from last season are gone. The defense will be a solid unit once again with eight starters back but they face a really tough opening test. After finishing last season No. 9 in the final AP Poll, they come in No. 24 this season and while polls can be meaningless, it shows regression there as well. South Alabama finished 10-2 during the regular season last year, losing the two games to UCLA and eventual SBC Champion Troy by a combined five points. The Jaguars will be contenders again as they bring back nine starters on each side of the ball where both units dominated throughout. Quarterback Carter Bradley returns and despite setting the school record for passing yards in a season, he was only Fourth Team SBC but is preseason Second Team this year behind Grayson McCall. Six of his top seven receivers are back as well as the top three rushers along with four of five offensive linemen so yes they are loaded. The defense had its best showing in a decade and are extremely experienced and should be even better. 10* (219) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Game of the Week. Seeing Houston as a home underdog is going to have many scrambling to get on the Cougars but it looks like it is going to be a tough season. After going 12-2 in 2021, the Cougars opened last season in the top 25 with some big expectations only to finish a disappointing 8-5. To their credit, they did suffer two overtime losses but on the flip side, Houston won half of its games by only one possession and that was with having First Team AAC quarterback Clayton Tune who is now in the NFL. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and taking the place of Tune will be Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith who is talented but turns the ball over and also gone are the two top receivers from last season. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers. That is good news for UTSA which is the preseason favorite in the AAC following the last two seasons where it went a combined 23-5. The Roadrunners are loaded again with eight starters back on both sides of the ball. They have the best quarterback in the conference in Frank Harris who is back for his seventh season, yes seventh, where he holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense. He does lose his top receiver but the next four are all back as it leading rusher Kevorian Barnes who was also a First Team player despite being a freshman playing only seven games. The offensive line is deep and there will be no drop off from their 36 ppg average each of the last two seasons. 10* (211) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. North Texas has not been able to get over .500 since 2018 which led to head coach Seth Littrell being let go after seven seasons but it is not a do over. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, the cupboard is not bare. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. One intangible is Morris knows the opposing defense and shredded them last season for 343 yards passing. California should be improved after three straight losing seasons including a 4-8 record last season. The Golden Bears lost some close games and they bring back 15 starters but being favored on the road by this many points after going 1-12 in their last 13 road games is a bit aggressive. Jack Plummer was great at quarterback last season but he is off to Louisville and California will have to find a new starter for a second straight season and there is no one competing that has been in this system. The defense does bring back nine starters but they were horrible last season, allowing 27.8 ppg and nearly 430 ypg and will not have much to go off of here. North Texas can easily win outright with the points being a premium. 10* (214) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. A first look at this number will put a lot of people on Boise St. getting over two touchdowns especially with what the Broncos did last season and expectations for this season. However, those expectations are in the very below average MWC and they will likely start the season 0-2 before facing FCS North Dakota as they are overmatched here. Boise St. ended up 10-4 last season but the schedule played a big part in that as of those 10 wins, seven were games in which they were favored by double digits so those were inflated. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability. Eight additional starters are back but lighting it up here will be a challenge. Defensively, they were No. 5 in passing defense so it looks as though they could challenge the Huskies but faced hardly any above average passing teams and have only five starters back on the entire defense. Washington finished 11-2 last season with the two losses coming back-to-back on the road at UCLA and Arizona St. by eight and seven points respectively, closed last season with seven straight wins and finished No. 8 in the AP Poll. The Huskies come into this season No. 10 in the preseason AP Poll and will again be in the hunt in the loaded Pac 12. Quarterback Michael Penix was second in the country in passing yards and led an offense that improved by 18.2 ppg and 196 ypg from 2021 and he has his top five receivers back. He should have no problem lighting this defense up. 10* (198) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Temple went just 3-9 for a second straight season but the Owls improved on both sides of the ball from 2021 and four of the losses last year were by one possession. They should continue to improve as they bring back 16 starters that includes seven on offense led by quarterback EJ Warner, the son of Kurt. He was the AAC Freshman of the Year after throwing for over 3,000 yards on a 61 percent completion percentage clip and while he did throw 12 interceptions, half of those were in his first four career starts. He loses his top receiver but will get transfer help and has an experienced and improved offensive line. The Owls will be stronger defensively with nine starters back and get a perfect first opponent. Akron had only one win last season against an FBS opponent and while the Zips also improved on both sides of the ball from 2021, but this is still a big work in progress. Offensively, the Zips bring back quarterback D.J. Irons, who is also the leading returning rusher and while he was not awful, he had no protection. They were the worst in the conference in tackles for loss allowed and No. 118 in the country in sacks allowed. It is a big work in progress on defense with a revamped defensive line and not much experience at linebacker. Akron is tied with Kent St. in the MAC for the worst combined ratings of the offensive and defensive lines and that is where it all starts. Temple was favored only once last season against an FBS opponent and easily covered so laying a number with the Owls is not an issue. 10* (172) Temple Owls

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After four straight bowl appearances from 2012-2015, Bowling Green went south quickly with six straight losing seasons and no bowl games but the Falcons turned things around last season. They did finish with a losing record but that was due to a bowl loss and they are building on that heading into this season. The offense has been bad for years and while they did show improvements last season, they should take a big step this season. Bowling Green brought in quarterback Conner Bazelak through the transfer portal after being a two-year starter at Missouri and for most of last year at Indiana, throwing for 7,370 career yards with 36 touchdowns. He should be able to sling it around with good protection from the offensive line which can open up the running game. Liberty had its fourth straight winning season a year ago but there could be some regression this season despite what looks like a very easy schedule. Gone is head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn and in comes former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell who is very solid but there are numerous questions at both of the coordinator positions. The Flames have to replace 14 starters and while there is experience at quarterback with great depth, Chadwell will not have Grayson McCall and his remarkable season around. Defensively, it is close to a total overhaul from a unit that led the nation in tackles for loss and was third in sacks and now has to replace eight starters. This line is too big and based too much on the past and not the present. 10* (161) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Louisville has a new head coach as Scott Satterfield left to take over at Cincinnati and the Cardinals brought in Jeff Brohm from Purdue which is basically a lateral move. It might seem like a great hire considering the Boilermakers won the Big Ten West but they did it with an easy schedule and five of the seven FBS wins were by one possession. Back to Louisville, it has a project on its hands, namely the offense. This was a very balanced offense and Brohm is bringing in a more wide open passing attack which could flourish later in the season but not now. Jack Plummer takes over at quarterback after coming over from California where he was solid but there are unknowns at receiver as the top two and four of the top five are gone while three starters have to be replaced along the offensive line. Georgia Tech opened the season 1-3 and Geoff Collins, who entered the season on the hot seat, was let go and it was pretty evident he was a bog part of the recent year struggles as the Yellow Jackets rallied around Brent Key to close the season 4-4. Going 5-7 by playing the No. 6 ranked schedule in the country is not horrible and while they are in the same boat as Louisville in terms of returning starters, the same systems are still in place. Quarterback Haynes King won the starting job and while he is new to a system as well, it is not as pass heavy and the running game should be strong. This is especially the case with four starting offensive linemen returning. While hot a true home game, this is a significant neutral field number. 10* (154) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. 10* (144) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Game of the Month. Year one for head coach Timmy Chang did not go as planned and while not much was expected, a 3-10 season was a big disappointment. Things should be better as after a rough start where the Warriors lost their first four FBS games by 53, 32, 46 and 19 points, four of the last six losses were by a touchdown or less so they became more competitive. They have only five starters back on offense but the quarterback, two starting receivers and a key running back return with the offensive line needing the biggest overhaul. That is not a huge concern in this matchup, however. Defensively, Hawaii was not good but has nine starters back from a unit that improved dramatically down the stretch. Vanderbilt was a win shy from its first bowl games since 2018 and with a decent group of 17 starters back, the Commodores can make some improvements. But they do not have any business laying a number this big as they have been a double-digit favorite over FBS competition just twice the last four seasons and failed to cover both, losing one outright. The point being, this is not a program accustomed to this spot. Playing in the SEC is not optimal for Vanderbilt and while this is a big step down in competition, the intangibles are not in their favor. Offensively, the passing game will be fine but quarterback A.J. Swann is just a sophomore and they have to replace their top two running backs and that is bad news for a team that likes to grind it out. There is experience on defense but nothing spectacular. 10* (311) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Opening Kickoff Winner. The hype behind Notre Dame is pretty typical every year but this season it is not getting as much love. The Irish come in ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll after finishing No. 21 in the final CFP Poll last year which followed up a pair of top five finishes. This is the lowest preseason ranking since 2017 when they were unranked but expectations and high and this is Notre Dame with the name alone adding value to the opponent. The big gain for the Irish is Wake Forest transfer quarterback San Hartman who should flourish but it could take a bit with five of the top six receivers gone. They will be solid defensively again with eight starters back but the first game presents an unknown. After 15 full seasons at Navy, head coach Ken Niumatalolo was let go and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted in hopes of turning around a program that is coming off three straight losing seasons. This recent run is another cause for this inflated line as that is all there is to go off of when in reality, the Midshipmen have some hidden advantages. The main one is the fact Notre Dame does not have much to look at for preparation as while the system is not dramatically changing, there are new wrinkles in the offense coming from Grant Chesnut, who was hired as offensive coordinator after having the same position at Kennesaw St. for nine years. Different looks and more of a pass game can keep Notre Dame off balance. Excellent value for the 2023 season opening game from Ireland. 10*(299) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. The Eagles are the very popular choice to win this game as it is hard to find many people liking the Chiefs but we are one of those with a lot of that based on this line. It opened as a pickem and moved to -1.5 and has remained steady despite two-thirds of the money coming in on the Eagles and we are using that nonmovement as a small factor. The key to this game is in the trenches where the Eagles are getting all of the pub to have the advantage but that is not really the case. Two years ago, the Chiefs were undone by the Buccaneers pass rush and many expect the same here as the Eagles led the league in sacks but the Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line since then and are an underrated unit heading into this game. They led the league in pass block win rate this season at 76 percent so they can neutralize Philadelphia along the line of scrimmage. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback they have faced in the postseason by a wide margin and while there is concern about his mobility due to his sprained ankle, he should be just fine and can find other ways to avoid constant pressure. On the other side, the Chiefs were second in sacks so they can also generate pressure against one of the best offensive lines in the league. There are no other secrets in any other key areas or injury concerns that will deter the numbers that are coming in. While Philadelphia had the better regular season and has dominated the postseason, it was not tested by the Giants or the 49ers who were down to their fourth string quarterback and during the regular season, it faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL so if it played even an average schedule, the results may have been different. 10* (101) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Championship Enforcer. While it would have been ideal to play this earlier in the week when the Chiefs were +2.5 but not everyone would have had access to that number and it was fairly certain that this line would come back to at least close to even based on injury news. That is exactly what has happened is that all reports stated the Patrick Mahomes has had very few limitations toward the end of the week and took every snap on Friday during practice. Even though the Chiefs have flipped back to the favorite, there is plenty of line value on then here at home. The Bengals were getting six points at Buffalo last week and now the number has dipped drastically against a better team despite any injury concerns. Part of the reason for this is that Cincinnati has crushed this season in this price range as it is 12-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown or an underdog and that includes a win here in Kansas City in Week 13 and that brings up a narrative that has been all over the place this week stating that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and do not think so a second the Chiefs are using that in their own favor. Cincinnati formulated a great gameplan last week against Buffalo to compensate what was a big disadvantage along the offensive line as there were plenty of quick throws by Burrow to alleviate the pressure but with film from that, the Chiefs now have more to look at and get ready for. The Bengals also had an advantage with the snow as it is much tougher for defensive linemen to get their leverage which also slowed down the pass rush. Now they will be facing a Kansas City defense that registered 55 sacks this season, second to only Philadelphia in the league. While Sean McDermont did not formulate a good gameplan on offense against Cincinnati, rest assured Andy Reid will even though he has lost the last three matchups but all three of those were decided by a field goal so they could have gone either way. Now that we know Mahomes is at least 80-90 percent, the value is squarely on the better team at home. 10* (324) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Dominator. The Eagles rolled the Giants in the Divisional Round and it was a mix of Philadelphia regaining its dominant form along with New York not being at the level we thought. They take a big step up in competition here but playing at home makes up for a lot of that and they are obviously laying a much smaller price this week. Philadelphia outgained the Giants by 189 total yards and did so without much trying later in the game when it was out of reach. The Eagles basically had one bad game the entire season when Jalen hurts was healthy and that was their only loss when he started which was against Washington and a lot of that came down to turnovers where they had four which led to the Commanders having a 2-1 edge in time of possession. The 49ers possess the No. 1 defense but the Eagles are not far behind at No. 2, trailing by less that a yard per game and they have the edge in this particular matchup. Philadelphia has the second highest pressure rate without blitzing in the NFL so Brock Purdy will be under constant stress all day. Purdy has been a great story as he is 8-0 in the eight games since coming in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo including 7-0 as a starter. Six of those games were at home with the two road games coming at Seattle and Las Vegas so this will be his first real test in a real environment. The 49ers escaped against Dallas last week as San Francisco capitalized on turnovers which kept the game close and they eventually pulled away in the fourth quarter. The 49ers struggled on offense as the Cowboys defense pretty much dictated the game throughout. They will have the same problems here as the Eagles will take out the middle of the field as this is where both teams excel and defense has advantage over offense when it comes to strength against strength. If there is one weakness of the 49ers defense, it is their struggles against mobile quarterbacks and while Hurts did not have a massive game on the ground, he did not have to and he looked healthy which is most important. 10* (322) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. We have a great situational matchup here favoring the 49ers and we can take advantage of a short line. Also, San Francisco has a big edge with two extra days of rest plus the travel aspect. We played against Dallas on Monday and that obviously ended up being a horrible call as Tampa Bay confirmed it was a fraud and the regular season was no deception. Give the Cowboys credit for playing one of their best games of the season on both sides of the ball but we can expect some regression here as teams coming off performances like that rarely repeat it unless they are an elite team and Dallas is not quite in that category. And now they step up in competition in a big way against the hottest team in the conference. This is the fourth straight road game for the Cowboys and the travel could have caught up especially with the cross country aspect in back-to-back weeks. Dallas had its best offensive performance since November but this is where the real regression will come into play as it faces the No. 1 defense in the league in both points allowed and total yards allowed. Seattle played well on Saturday to start the game as it actually took a lead into halftime against the 49ers but San Francisco put the pedal down in the second half as it scored 25 unanswered points before allowing a late garbage touchdown. While the defense is the strength of this team, the offense is hardly a liability. The 49ers amassed 505 yards of total offense against the Seahawks which was the most put up since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback and he is looking more comfortable each game. The Seahawks defense is dreadful so that had something to do with it but this team is loaded with talent around him which has certainly helped the transition. It is now 11 straight wins for the 49ers and in dominating fashion as they have outgained the opponent in 10 of those. San Francisco is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (318) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We see some great value with this line in what will be another very emotional home game for the Bills. This is a rematch of the canceled Monday night game that had the unfortunate and ultimately, inspiring moment going forward with Damar Hamlin and now Buffalo gets the Bengals at home at a relatively short price after also closing as a favorite on the road in that first matchup. The Bills got away with one as they won by a field goal despite dominating the Dolphins but were hurt by three turnovers, one that led to a fumble return for a touchdown. The offense did its normal thing and the defense allowed just 219 yards and while that was against a third string quarterback and it takes a big step up here, the matchup is in its favor. The Bengals had a very legitimate shot at losing to Baltimore and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley as they trailed for most of the game but took the lead for good on defensive lineman Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard fumble return touchdown for a 14-point swing. The Bengals were outgained 364-234 as they had no running game and Joe Burrow was unable to stretch the field as he had just 209 yards passing. There is more bad news for the offense as Cincinnati entered Sunday already without two of its five starting linemen due to injuries and lost left tackle Jonah Williams and the production of the offense was greatly impacted by that. The Ravens had nine players with a quarterback pressure after that and Buffalo had eight players record two-plus pressures against a mediocre Miami offensive line so the Bills have a huge edge here. The defense was bailed out by that fumble return and will nor face a totally different test here as Buffalo is ranked No. 2 in both total offense and scoring offense. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 70 and 95 rushing ypg and after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 95 and 125 rushing ypg. This situation is 108-62 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Giants on Sunday and while a lot of that was playing against an overrated Vikings team, New York showed a lot of good things and deserve to be here. The Giants outgained Minnesota by 99 total yards and while they succeeded against a bad defense, this coaching staff can gameplan given the opponent as Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready again. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess a defense that can play well in crunch time. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating and while facing a much better defense, the fact that he did not play in the second meeting in Week 18 is an advantage. The Eagles cruised through the regular season with a 14-3 record and obviously two of those losses came with Jalen Hurts not playing and while he did return in the season finale against the Giants, he was not great as he put up a 65.1 passer rating. The Eagles did go vanilla in that game and while he gets extra rest, there is still a concern with his shoulder and his excellent running game could be deterred. This is a dominant team when fully healthy but they are down some key players on defense but the other big one is tackle Lane Johnson who is down with an abdominal injury and comes in as questionable and will clearly not be 100 percent if he can go. Coming off the bye, Philadelphia is going to be a big public play as some will perceive this line being a short one but it its last two home games with all starter in, it was favored by less over Tennessee and Green Bay. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 37-8 ATS (82.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) New York Giants

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Wildcard Game of the Month. Tampa Bay was probably the most underachieving team in the league this season and was fortunate to have played in the weakest division in the NFL. That being said, Tom Brady has excelled in these positions before and is battle tested that can will his team to a win. He is coming off his worst passer rating since coming to Tampa Bay but he has been sharper with the vertical attack of late with the exception of a pair of bad games against Cincinnati and San Francisco and we cannot put Dallas on those levels. The Buccaneers closed the season 1-6 against the number and that is playing into the fact it is an underdog in this game and while its 4-4 record at home is not great, it needs to be respected. Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen could be activated this week after missing the regular season with a knee injury and this would be a massive boost to the offensive line. Dallas is coming off a clunker in the season finale but it was just going through the motions so we can probably discount that. Still, the Cowboys have not been playing well with some close wins and in the last four victories, they have faced Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs and they have been outgained in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were solid at home with an 8-1 record but are just 4-4 on the road and are at a disadvantage at quarterback. Dak Prescott is currently playing the worst football of his career and he has tossed 15 interceptions this season despite playing only 12 games and he had an awful performance in the first meeting with Tampa Bay. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (152) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This line stinks. These teams played less than a month ago with the Vikings closing as a 4.5-point favorite as they won by three points on a last second 61-yard field goal and that result is partially dictating the line this week. Minnesota was outgained by 92 yards as it allowed 445 yards which has been the only time the Giants have eclipsed 400 yards in their last seven games as this defense is bad but New York was hurt by two costly turnovers. The Vikings have been outgained in six of their last nine games and they return home where they are 8-1 but seven of those wins were by only one possession with 11 of their 13 overall wins coming within that as well. They are the only team in NFL history that has at least 12 wins to go along with a negative point differential. The betting markets have caught up as Minnesota has dropped four of its last five games against the number. The Giants had nothing to play for last week against the Eagles, did not play most starters and still kept the game close. Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess the much better defense. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating which was tied for No. 13 in the league and he was tied with, you guessed it, Kirk Cousins. His success can be credited to Daboll without question. Saquon Barkley had only 84 yards rushing in the first meeting but he ran it just 14 times and now faces a defense that has allowed an average of 138.7 ypg over the last six weeks. The Giants are 5-1 when Barkley gets 20 or more carries and that will definitely be the goal here as long as they do not get down big early. 10* (147) New York Giants

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers closed the season with wins in four of their last five games with the loss being the meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. They did play starters longer than expected with came with mixed opinions but they did not lose any rhythm which is a big part. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well over the second half of the season with a rating of 100 or higher in five of his last eight games and he presents a tough matchup for the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have faced Joshua Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson over their last three games so they were not tested while allowing only 22 combined points in those games. On the season, Jacksonville finished No. 30 in DVOA and were one of just five teams that allowed 4,000 yards passing. Herbert was banged up earlier in the season and he has dealt with many key teammates missing time as well and the Chargers are relatively healthy heading into the postseason. He threw for 297 yards in the first meeting this season but he had broken ribs. Jacksonville meanwhile has won five straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last three have come against the Jets, Texans and Titans which went a combined 4-20 over the last eight weeks and it took a fumble recovery for a touchdown to win last week. Trevor Lawrence has played well over the second half of the season as well but he was not sharp last week and is not as consistent as Herbert has been. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 65-28 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (143) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Bowl Game of the Year. TCU is the surprise of the college football season and it continues to get no respect. Despite a 12-0 record, the Horned Frogs were underdogs in the Big 12 Championship because no one wants to bet on this team and while they lost, it took overtime in a game they outgained the Wildcats by 65 yards and were more impressive last week. Many thought of it to be a mismatch against Michigan even with its high-powered offense but they scored 51 points and put up 488 yards against one of the best defenses in the country which showed the Horned Frogs do belong. They obviously have another big test here against one of the best defenses in the country but possess one of the best offensive minds in college football in head coach Sonny Dykes who worked with the late, great Mike Leach at Texas Tech and turned around offenses in his stops before heading to TCU. In the last two games, the Georgia defense has given up 850 yards passing and it has been middle of the road all season at No. 52 overall. Georgia no doubt has a power offense of its own and the fact TCU allowed 45 points against Michigan is a concern but overall, the Horned Frogs held some very solid defenses from the Big 12 in check. The Horned Frogs had more wins over ranked opponents (6) than Georgia (4) and while the teams cannot dictate who they play in not giving Georgia the same amount off opportunities, the fact that they won those games tells a lot for TCU. Power rankings call for Georgia being a touchdown favorite here which shows an inflated line which was also the case against Michigan that unfortunately we did not take advantage of. One overlooked factor here is that Georgia had the advantage of playing the SEC Championship and the CFP Semifinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is not too far from campus so there was hardly any travel and that has been the case for most of this season. Eight games were played away from Athens including four neutral sites that were all close by and the furthest trip was to Missouri and we all saw what almost happened there. This is not an end all be all aspect but counts some. 10* (287) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Here is another easy scenario for Green Bay as a win and it is in the playoffs so the task at hand is to win its fifth straight game but the markets have adjusted here as well. The advanced line prior to the conclusion of the games last week had Green Bay -3 and it was quickly moved up because the Packers are going to be a big betting favorite this week and we are now catching value on the other side over a key number. In the Packers four victories, they were outgained in three of those as they only outyarded the Rams at home. Green Bay does nothing particularly well as it is ranked middle of the pack in all major statistical categories with the exception of its solid passing defense. The situation is a lot different for Detroit as it not only needs to win but also have Seattle lose earlier in the day. Because of this, the Lions will know their fate before kickoff but if Seattle wins, that does not mean they are going to pack in it. They might be disappointed once the news comes if the Seahawks are victorious, but they will be playing just as hard as this is a divisional rival and a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Packers from going to the playoffs. Teams do not pack it in in situations like this as players are still going all out for themselves, their contracts and their futures and Dan Campbell is not going down easy for anyone. This offense remains one of the best and keeps it in this one. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems off a win against a division rival, in January games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC West Game of the Month. It is an easy scenario for Seattle but not in its own control as it has to win here and have the Packers lose to Detroit Sunday night so this is a must win and in the final week of the regular season, these must wins scenarios force the markets to make adjustments. The advanced line was Seattle -3 and after its victory last week to keep its playoff hopes alive, the line jumped considerably as the Seahawks are a must win team that the public will be all over. We played against them last week and the Jets offense could not get anything going while Seattle was able to rush for 198 yards which was very uncharacteristic of the New York defense and Seattle will be facing another strong rushing defense here. It has been an up and down run for Los Angeles since Baker Mayfield took over as the Rams are 2-2 following a loss last week against the Chargers but they continue to play hard and would like nothing more than to eliminate Seattle from playoff contention. The win over Las Vegas was followed up by a horrible road effort at Green Bay with the weather playing a role in that and despite the loss last week, the running game has gotten potent again as they have gained 158 and 166 yards on the ground the last two weeks. Comparing the line to last week against the Chargers, Los Angeles is getting just a half-point less against a team not on the same level as the Chargers. Value and contrarian makes Los Angeles the play here and the Rams could use a big boost going into the offense after a disappointing campaign. 10* (451) Los Angeles Rams