Sports Picks & Predictions

We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans

New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints

We played against Boise St. last Saturday and it worked out for us as the Broncos lost at Air Force as big favorites. The main reason they lost was that they committed seven turnovers and they were unable to work back from a 28-0 deficit. Boise St. outgained the Falcons 467-335 so while it was the better team on the day, it was not the better team on the scoreboard. All that does is set the Broncos up this week for one of our "misleading public reversals" and it gets even better. Nevada won last week at San Jose St. 21-10 but it was on the wrong side of the yardages as it was outgained by 190 total yards. The Wolf Pack were fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This adds to the Boise St. reversal and the two misleading scores help us immensely this week as we are catching a great number and one that is smaller than it should be. Looking at the history of this series and you will see that Nevada has covered the last five meetings but Boise St. won four of those and the spread wins were based on big lines, not like the one we have here. Boise St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (415) Boise St. Broncos

After a perfect 3-0 start, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games against Iowa and Akron and both of those were as favorites. Losing to Iowa was a downer as the Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 total yards but were unable to hold onto a 10-point lead. Last week's loss to the Zips was inexcusable and it was clear that Pittsburgh did not come to play after the previous loss but the defeat last week can now serve as a wake up call. A loss this week could be devastating and head coach Paul Chryst could have a tough time not losing his team. The Panthers are on a bye so there are now no excuses. Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division but it is off to a surprising 3-2 start which is already one more win than all of last season. Even the losses weren't bad as the Cavaliers fell to UCLA and BYU by eight points each and going back to last season, they have now covered seven straight games. What that does is cause this line to be overadjusted which is certainly the case here as Virginia is a favorite against a power conference team for the first time since being favored by two points over Duke last season. Virginia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single digit favorite while Pittsburgh falls into one of the best college situations around as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (331) Pittsburgh Panthers

Michigan been in the news a lot this week but for all of the wrong reasons. Whether it was because of mishandling of injuries or demonstrations to fire the athletic director or talk about the head coach needing to be let go, it is not very pleasant in Ann Arbor right now. This is where players need to recognize what is going on and play like they should play and not like the way they did last week in a home loss against Minnesota. Hitting the road after a three-game homestand is just what this team needs right now so the situation is in the Wolverines favor. They have dropped four straight against the number since destroying Appalachian St. opening week and that is putting the majority on the other side. Rutgers is 4-1 to start the season but it does not own a marquee victory as its toughest opponent was Penn St. and that resulted in the lone defeat. The Scarlet Knights have been outgained in three of five games this season including one against Howard from the FCS. Michigan meanwhile has outgained four of five opponents so despite the records, it can be argued Michigan is still the much better team and that is hard to disagree with. While Hoke is getting a lot of grief, and rightfully so, he has been great in getting his teams to bounce back off poor performances. The Wolverines managed a mere 171 yards of offense against Minnesota last week and in his career, Hoke is 7-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game and 14-2 ATS in 16 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10* (399) Michigan Wolverines

Navy is off to a disappointing 2-3 start following consecutive losses the last two Saturday's. Both of those came at home no less where they are 0-2 but the Midshipmen have won both of their road games while outgaining both opponents in doing so. They were favored then and they are favored again here for good reason and they will come in hungry and look to avoid matching their loss total from all of last season. We won with Air Force last week as it was aided by seven Boise St. turnovers. Had that not occurred, chances are the Falcons would not have won outright but I feel that puts them in a tough spot here against a team they have had trouble with over the years. This has been a tightly contested series over the last few years but Navy has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Falcons have already surpassed their win total from last season but last week can be considered a fluke and a won over Nicholls St. was far from impressive. In the other victory over Georgia Southern, Air Force was outgained there also and the good fortunes cannot last all season. Navy is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games against teams allowing 3.25 or fewer ypc so it knows how to adjust. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (373) Navy Midshipmen

Louisville is coming off a less than stellar effort last week against Wake Forest. Or was it? The Cardinal won by only 10 points and were actually trailing in the fourth quarter but a lot of that can be attributed to three lost fumbles, two short made field goals and two missed field goals. They did not allow an offensive touchdown as the only time Wake Forest got into the endzone was because of a fumble recovery. Louisville allowed only 10 first downs and 100 total yards of offense and overall it is ranked third in total defense (225.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (14 ppg). I don't see that changing here against a Syracuse offense that is struggling to score. We were on the Orange last week and it was not a good call as they were able to keep it as close as they did thanks to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. Syracuse put up a decent 429 total yards but could muster only 15 points and six of those came on an interception return for a touchdown. It scored 40 points at Central Michigan but we can now call that an anomaly because the Orange have scored only 52 points in regulation in their other three games combined. Overall Syracuse is 48th in total offense but just 85th in scoring offense so there is definitely a disconnect somewhere and facing the toughest defense to date won't help matters. Louisville quarterback Will Gardner is questionable but that is not a concern at all. The Cardinals have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Louisville Cardinals

At first glace, grabbing over three touchdowns with a 4-0 Arizona team seems like a good take but I don't think that will be nearly enough in this spot for the Wildcats. Arizona was off last week following its improbable comeback against California where it trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter and eventually won on a last second 47-yard touchdown pass. While it has had time to recover from that jubilation, it is coming into a tough environment for this Thursday night clash. The Wildcats won their lone road game but that came by only three points at Texas-San Antonio and this is a whole different animal. Oregon meanwhile is also coming off a bye following a closer than expected win at Washington St. two weeks ago as it won by just a touchdown as a 23-point chalk. Now the Ducks are back home where they have won 10 straight games and playing with a lot of added motivation. That comes from the 42-16 drubbing they took from Arizona is Tucson last season which closed the door on an outside shot at the National Championship. Now it is revenge time and Oregon will not let off the gas as it will want nothing more than to return the favor. The Ducks have numerous situations in their favor with the strongest being to play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Oregon is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games while Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg. 10* (308) Oregon Ducks

We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers

Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs

New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints

Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers

We played against Notre Dame and won when it could cover against Purdue and once again, it comes in with an inflated number. The Irish are off to a 3-0 start and have looked good in doing so but not as good as you may think. Wins over Rice and Purdue are far from good wins as both programs are rebuilding while Michigan is certainly not the same team we thought they would be sitting at 2-2 following an upset loss against Utah last week. Now the Irish hit the highway again for the second straight game on a neutral field and not to mention it has a revenge game at home against Stanford next week. Both the offense and defense have been solid but playing the easy schedule thus far has skewed those averages. The score shows a 14-point loss against Maryland last week but the game was a different story as Syracuse outgained the Terrapins by 220 total yards. The Orange were done in by two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 88 yards for a touchdown as well as a 90-yard touchdown pass by Maryland in the first quarter. Plays like that cannot be allowed in order to win and Syracuse found that out the hard way. Now it goes down to New Jersey where its fan base travels very well in hopes of pulling off the upset. They have 15 starters back form last year's bowl winning season and after the near debacle against Villanova, the Orange have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (166) Syracuse Orange

We lost a tough one last week in going against Duke and while the final score of 47-13 may not sound like that is the case, the game was not as bad as that outcome is. Tulane was outgained by only 46 total yards but five turnovers and 13 penalties killed the Green Wave and it was arguably the most deceiving final score of the weekend. 21 of Duke's points came off turnovers including two interception returns for scores. While the Blue Devils are 4-0, this is a team I am not sold on yet and a lot of that has to do with playing the 190th ranked schedule in the country. A road win at Troy has been the only highway trip and things will be a lot tougher here. Miami lost at Nebraska last week to fall to 2-2 with the other loss coming at Louisville so the Hurricanes have played in some tough venues. Now they are back home where they have won 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for some serious revenge following last year's 18-point beatdown in Durham. Miami is a different team now as it is a lot healthier than it was during that trip to Duke including having Duke Johnson back at running back. Look for him to have a monster game against the nation's 92nd ranked rushing defense which is actually worse than that based on the cupcake schedule. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting more comfortable and he is actually 30th in the nation in passing efficiency. Duke has won and covered six straight road games going back to the start of last season and because of the public love, we are catching a smaller than anticipated number which we take advantage of. 10* (180) Miami Hurricanes

Since opening the season with a loss against Mississippi, Boise St. has rolled to three straight wins and covers but let's face it, the opposition has been pretty bad. The Broncos had easy home wins over Colorado St. and UL-Lafayette but despite a 17-point win over Connecticut on the road, they outgained the Huskies by just two total yards. It comes as no secret that Boise St. is a better home team than road team and laying this type of number has been a problem as Boise St. is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by double-digits against an opponent that is coming off a win. Air Force defeated Georgia St. two weeks ago and while that victory isn't saying much, a win is a win and playing with two weeks to prepare is even bigger. This is the first home game for Air Force since opening the season against Nicholls St. back in August so the Falcons were will extra pumped here against a quality foe. They are also playing with revenge following last season's 22-point loss at Boise and they bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS record coming off a bye week when getting fewer than 19 points. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (198) Air Force Falcons

Stanford is off a bye last week which followed its easy win over Army at home the previous week. The Cardinal now hit the road for the first time this season and while that normally could be as cause for concern, the situation at hand totally negates that. Prior to Army, the Cardinal lost against USC and it can ill afford to start Pac 12 play at 0-2 especially with the challenges that lie ahead in the second half of the season. While we are not overly keen about laying more than a touchdown on the road, Stanford will show that it is far superior and expose the Huskies. Washington has not been very impressive this season as it opened with a one point win at Hawaii and then defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only seven points. The Huskies took care of Illinois by 25 points but last week fell behind against Georgia St. 14-0 before having to rally back for the win. They lost a ton from its offense last season and while the point totals have been big, this will be by far the best defense it has seen this season. Stanford is ranked first in the country in total defense and that is more impressive knowing it help the potent Trojans in check. Stanford knows the task here will not be easy as it defeated Washington by only three points last year and lost here in Seattle back in 2012 by four points. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or fewer ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal

Texas is coming off a much needed bye week as after opening the season with a blowout win over North Texas, it has lost two straight games against BYU and UCLA. Those teams remain undefeated so while losses are bad, those aren't necessarily bad losses and the Longhorns take a big step down in class here. The Longhorns have back-to-back games against Baylor and Oklahoma immediately after this game and while that could normally trigger a lookahead, that won't happen here with Charlie Strong at the helm as his teams have gone 12-3 ATS in 15 games following a loss and the last thing they want is a three-game losing streak heading into the game against the Bears. Kansas is 2-1 for the second straight season but it went on to lose eight of its last nine games. The Jayhawks have defeated SE Missouri St. and Central Michigan, not exactly the best of opposition and they were both very unimpressive victories. Kansas has lost its Big 12 opener each of the last four years with three of the losses coming by 48, 40 and 38 points and a similar result here would not be surprising. The quarterback play has been atrocious from Montell Cozart sand now her will be facing a tough defense that has eight starters back from last season and is now healthy. On the other side, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has directed the offense the last two games, completing 44 of 65 passes for 377 yards. His completion percentage (67.7) ranks No. 19 in the nation and he has committed just one turnover in his two starts. Texas has dominated this series as the Longhorns have won all 11 matchups in Big 12 play and have outscored Kansas by an average of 42.8-14.4 points per game in that stretch. 10* (175) Texas Longhorns

The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins

Because of Appalachian St.'s loss to Southern Mississippi, we are getting some value with the Mountaineers. They rallied from a 14-0 deficit to nearly tie the game but missed the extra point because of a block in the final seconds to lose by one point. Appalachian St. actually outgained the Golden Eagles 455-329 but costly turnovers, three missed field goals sand penalties did it in. Five of eight drives that went into Southern Mississippi territory resulted in no points. Georgia Southern meanwhile is coming off a rout against South Alabama to square its record at 2-2. The Eagles have covered all four games and are now 8-0 against the spread since 2010 but are now favored against an FBS opponent by more than one point for the first time every and it is over two touchdowns no less. This team could be 4-0 overall as losses against NC State and Georgia Tech came by a combined five points so this is no doubt a very good team but the Eagles are in unchartered territory with this line and with it being a rival game that goes back to the SoCon days, it adds more for the underdog. While Georgia Southern gets the accolades for being a great rushing team, the Mountaineers are right there. Heading into conference play, Appalachian St. ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing with 212.3 ypg. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Mountaineers are 20-2 when they run the ball 40 or more times and 11-19 when they run the ball less than 40 times. Look for a much closer than expected game. 10* (103) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears

This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers

Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants

After a 2-0 start, Wyoming ran into the buzzsaw of Oregon last week and fell to the Ducks by 34 points. In actuality, it was not that bad of a loss as the Cowboys were outgained by only 117 total yards and were down by only six points late in the second quarter before Oregon was able to pull away. Wyoming put up 439 total yards of offense against a very strong and underrated Ducks defense so they have to be happy coming back home following their best output of the season. This is a brand new system that new head coach Craig Bohl has brought in so it would take some time and is clicking around the right time. Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Tulsa in a surprising blowout. To their credit, the Owls opened the season with games against Nebraska and Alabama so getting blown out in those games was nothing to be ashamed of. I don't like the situation here though for them as they travel out west, furthest they have gone in a decade, with their conference opener taking place next week. They have been strong road underdogs the last couple years but they have been double-digit dogs in 14 of their last 17 road games so clearly this is a different scenario. Wyoming is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game and falls into an excellent situation where we play on teams (after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (342) Wyoming Cowboys

BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 when it opened the season 12-0 and it has a chance to go deep again this year. The Cougars did not cover their last game but they have dominated all three games, winning the yardage battle by at least 158 total yards each time out. They have the benefit of a couple extra days off for this game and they have had this one circled as they went to Virginia in the season opener last season and lost by three points despite outgaining the Cavaliers by 139 total yards. Revenge will certainly be in play this week and while BYU has Utah St. on deck, it is not for another two weeks. Virginia has looked very good through three games as it narrowly lost to UCLA on opening weekend and followed that up with two wins including an upset of Louisville last week to open ACC play. Considering the Cavaliers won two games all of last season, it has already been a success but now Virginia hits the road for the first time this season. It has won only once in its last nine road games and going back, the Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. We look for BYU to control the line of scrimmage here and have success running the ball which sets up solid situation as we play on home favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (368) BYU Cougars

There are very few marquee games this weekend but this can classify as one even though the Gators are not ranked. They are coming off a very fortunate win over Kentucky at home last Saturday and while many will look at that final score and think they will not have a chance here, that was a difficult spot with Alabama on deck. On top of that, Kentucky is a much improved team and if Alabama had the Wildcats last week, a closer than expected outcome would not have been surprising there either. The Crimson Tide have been cruising along to start the season but they have failed to cover against some inferior competition. They have not covered a game since last November, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and we are catching a good number here that is above two touchdowns. Florida has a new offense and it has looked very good through two games and while it has not faced a defense like Alabama yet, that stop unit is not up to form yet so the Gators can move the ball here. The Tide defense has allowed more yards in each of the last three years including over 100 more ypg last season than they did in 2011. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better while Alabama is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 home games after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This is the first meeting since 2011 and Florida is getting the most points in this series since the early 90's. 10* (357) Florida Gators

Akron last played two weeks ago at Penn St. and while it was competitive for the majority of the game, the Nittany Lions were able to pull away and avoid the backdoor cover. The Zips extra prep time is big here as they have the opportunity to work on things to slow down the Marshall offense and their defense is good enough to do so. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, this team should continue to improve. Marshall is 3-0 following another blowout victory, this time over Ohio as it shellacked the Bobcats by 30 points and outgained them by 328 total yards. This team is no secret as the Thundering Herd came in as one of the possible non-BCS conference teams to run the table and go undefeated. They are overvalued here however as the are a different team on the road than they are at home. Marshall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown off a non-conference game while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Zips are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week. Akron falls into a great situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Akron Zips

The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls

This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Auburn comes into Thursday night riding the longest ATS winning streak in the country as it has now covered 13 straight games going back to last season. That alone is making this line bigger than it should be and from a pure power ranking standpoint, I have this game as Auburn being a six-point favorite on a neutral field so this line is a touchdown higher than it should be based on venue. The tigers have rolled to wins over Arkansas and San Jose St. but now this is their toughest opponent to date and it is their first road game of the season on top of it. Kansas City is also 2-0 but it failed to cover either of its games against Stephen F. Austin and Iowa St. so that is also playing into this number. The Wildcats are not home underdogs very often but they have taken advantage of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games a home pup and even better, they are 12-4 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder continues to get the job done and in his career at Kansas St. he has won 64 of 68 home games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, the Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Kansas St. also falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 130-71 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Kansas St. Wildcats

The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts

Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers

Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers

We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots

Purdue went 1-11 last season and while it has already matched that win total this year, the Boilermakers are coming off a disappointing loss last week against Central Michigan. That will certainly have them motivated here as they try to snap a six-game losing skid to rival Notre Dame. The Irish have been on cruise control through their first two games but after winning the last game in the series against Michigan last Saturday night, the first shutout against the Wolverines since 1984, this spells major letdown. This is an interesting matchup from a statistical point of view from last week. Notre Dame was outgained by nine yards against Michigan while Purdue was outgained by seven yards against Central Michigan. Those resulted in two completely different opposite scores as Notre Dame won by 31 points and Purdue lost by 21 points. The difference was turnovers which can change the outcome of a game even if it is played closer than the score shows. The linesmakers are basing this line on the score and not the games so we take advantage of the value. Notre Dame was favored by 17 points at Purdue last year and won by just a touchdown so based on a neutral field change, it is arguably favored by a touchdown more than it should be. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. This is also the last meeting in this series after 68 years and even though it will reconvene in 2020, Purdue should be extremely motivated to end their losing skid to the Irish. 10* (179) Purdue Boilermakers

This is similar to one of our other plays where we should see a heavy favorite take no prisoners on its overmatched opponent. Stanford did not get off to the start in the Pac 12 it was hoping for as it lost to USC by a field goal at home. A late game winning touchdown was called back because of a penalty and on the day, the Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 122 total yards so it was the better team on the field last week. They threw for 285 yards but could manage only 10 points but that won't be the case this week. We won with Army against Buffalo last week as the Black Knights built a big lead and needed all of it as they withstood a late Bulls rally to win by eight points. They were outgained by 83 yards and while Army was again solid with its offensive rushing, the fact it gave up 554 total yards is a huge concern. This is the first of three straight road games for Army and the other two are quite winnable so getting down early will but the Black Knights in a corner they won't be able to get out of. As for Stanford, it is off next week so there is no reason to think it will not go all out here and try to fix the scoring issue from last week. And they have done it in the past as the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The last time it happened was a three-point loss to USC last season and they won by 50 over California in their next game. 10* (168) Stanford Cardinal

We won with South Alabama last week and we will ride them again this week. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the first home game of the season for South Alabama and this is by far the most high profile opponent to come to Ladd-Peebles Stadium ever. Mississippi St. comes in a perfect 2-0 but has not really been tested. The Bulldogs shutout Southern Miss which came in on a 1-23 run and then took out UAB last week, they defeated the Blazers by just 13 points and were actually outgained by 32 yards and this was at home. The real clincher in going against Mississippi St. is that it opens SEC action next week at LSU and it is a big revenge spot on top of it as it lost to the Tigers by 33 points last season, easily its worst loss of the year. The Bulldogs have not been favored by this much on the road since 2011 and even though it comes against a Sun Belt Conference team, they have not shown anything to justify it. These team met in Starkville in 2012 and the Jaguars lost by only 20 points and that was part of a 2-11 season. Mississippi St. is 2-10 ATS in it 12 games under Dan Mullin following a two-game homestand while the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (158) South Alabama Jaguars

The country watched Michigan go into Notre Dame as a four-point underdog and leave with its tail between its legs after suffering a 31-0 beatdown. That isn't go to deter the public to back the Wolverines most likely but that is just fine with us as we are getting exceptional value based on the score and not the actual game. Michigan actually outgained Notre Dame by nine yards but it had four turnovers that did the damage. The Wolverines will be out to beat up on someone and what better team than Miami Ohio, losers of 18 straight games. The Warhawks have dropped both games this year at home and one was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. Competing on the road has been a real issues lately as they have lost games by 46, 38, 34 and 36 points in the four game against BCS conferences and two of those were against Illinois and Kentucky last season which won a combined six games. If Michigan goes out and actually puts forth the expected effort, it can name the score and you can pretty much guarantee it has not forgotten what happened against Akron last season. Here, we play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more going up against a team allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential being +37.9 ppg. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Michigan Wolverines

We waited on this game to confirm some injury reports. Baylor is getting quarterback Bryce Petty back for this game which is definitely a big boost after he hurt his back in the season opener. He missed the last game against Northwestern St. but he was not needed in the 70-6 win against the FCS Bears. While Petty returns, it is his main targets that we are concerned about and none of them will be in action tonight. Receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood were already out but it is now clear that Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman will also not play tonight due to leg injuries. All total, that is 3,111 yards, 185 receptions and 26 touchdowns from last season that will not be on the field tonight. Buffalo is coming off a loss last week at Army but it made a gallant effort in trying to come back after trailing by 30 as it scored the final 22 points to lose by eight. The Bulls racked up 554 yards of offense and they will give the Bears their biggest test of the season. Baylor has only four starters back on defense and Buffalo can take advantage as it won't take much on offense to stay within this huge number. This line has gone up because of the Petty news but the other key injuries are not being taken into consideration. This is a revenge game for Buffalo which lost at Baylor last season 70-13 and while the chances of winning are slim, staying within the number are good and even if Baylor does build a lead, Petty will likely exit to stay healthy for the Big XII opener in two weeks. 10* (110) Buffalo Bulls

BYU is coming off a big win over Texas to improve to 2-0 on the season, both wins coming on the road. This is the home opener for the Cougars and based on their lopsided wins, they are laying a bigger than expected number and I feel it will prove to be too big. Houston easily took care of Grambling 47-0 to win its first game of the season following a season opening loss against UTSA. That was a game the Cougars never got in because of turnovers so that 20-point loss is somewhat skewed. Both teams are on the plus side in yardage differentials and it is not as big as everyone thinks. BYU has a +1.7 yppl margin which is solid as anything on the plus side is obviously good but Houston checks in with a +1.4 yppl margin so it is not far behind. BYU won a thriller against Houston last season 47-46 which brings revenge into play as it snapped Houston's undefeated start to the season which was 5-0. The Cougars are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams playing with revenge. Additionally, BYU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off two consecutive road wins since 1992 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (105) Houston Cougars

With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens

Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers

Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants

Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons

After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens

Because bettors have significant short-term memories, lines need to adjusted based on recent results and that is certainly the case here. Duke rolled over Elon last week by 39 points as it outgained the Phoenix by 239 total yards and it now hits the road for the first time this season. While it was a dominating win, Elon was coming off a 2-10 season and breaking in a new head coach. While the Blue Devils were 5-0 on the road last year, none of the wins came by more than what they are favored by this week. Troy meanwhile got pummeled at UAB, losing by 38 points and getting outgained by 218 yards. The Trojans return home where they have had only one losing season the last decade and of their 12 losses over that stretch, only one has been by more than 17 points which came in 2011. I think we will see a different team at Veterans Memorial Stadium where Troy has lost only once in its last 21 home openers. Now Duke comes in as a massive road favorite and it is completely inflated. Last season, the Blue Devils were 13.5-point home favorites against Troy and now they are favored by close to a touchdown more on the road. They were a road favorite twice last season at Memphis and Wake Forest but both of those lines were a touchdown or less. The last time Duke was a road favorite of more than 17 points? You have to go back to 1994. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (362) Troy Trojans

We played against Vanderbilt last Thursday and easily won as the Commodores lost by 30 points against Temple and now they go from 8.5-point favorites to 20-point underdogs in the span of a week. That is what we call overreaction. The loss to the Owls was not a good one but Vanderbilt was outgained by just 73 yards and it was seven turnovers which led to 27 points, many of which came on a short field. Defensively, it was a pretty solid effort from Vanderbilt and that should continue here. Mississippi was on the opposite end of things last week as it defeated Boise St. by 22 points but only outgained the Broncos by 59 yards. The Rebels were up by only one point early in the fourth quarter before a barrage of four touchdowns led to the runaway victory. Two of those came on a short field while another came on a 76-yard bomb so Mississippi was fortunate the game was not closer at the end. Because of the two differing outcomes, the Rebels are now massive favorites on the road and while it is not at the Vanderbilt campus, it is at LP Field in Nashville. Mississippi has been favored by 20 points on the road only once over the last decade which came against Tulane and resulted in a loss and it doesn't deserve to be here against another SEC foe. The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while gong 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games anywhere against teams with a losing record. 10* (348) Vanderbilt Commodores

Fresno St. is coming off a blowout loss against USC, it second straight loss to the Trojans going back to last season's Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs opened up 10-0 last year and were making a run at a BCS Bowl game but a loss at San Jose St. killed that. Now they are trying to move on without quarterback Derek Carr who is now taking snaps with the Oakland Raiders. Saturday was not pretty for the defense as it allowed 701 yards against USC but we should see a huge improvement here as it takes a step down in class. Utah was solid on offense last week against Idaho St. but that should be the case when facing a school from the FCS. Last year, the Utes defeated Weber St. 70-7 only to come back and lose at home the next week against Oregon St. so big wins do not always lead to momentum boosts. Utah has gone 5-7 each of the last two seasons and it brings back 12 starters from last year so there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe it will be vastly improved. The Utes have been a double-digit home favorite over FBS teams four times the last three years, going 1-3 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs need to run the ball to be effective and last week, they gained more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.4), which had not happened in a regular-season game since a victory at Nevada during the 2012 season. I like the bounceback angles here as bettors remember last week and ride it. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points while the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (337) Fresno St. Bulldogs

South Alabama kicks its season off with a road game at Kent St. as it looks to improve upon last season. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year. They bring back 15 starters including nine on an offense that averaged 29.4 ppg and 426 ypg and the defense should be an improved unit as well as they return all four starters in the secondary. Kent St. is coming off a loss against Ohio last week 17-14 as the Bobcats kicked a 44-yard field goal on the last play of the game. It lost the game despite having a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin and that is a rarity which shows how poorly the Golden Flashes really played. They were outgained by 142 total yards and while the defense was solid in allowing only 17 points, the offense could muster up only 295 yards. The Golden Flashes are young up front and really struggled to run the ball last Saturday against Ohio and making matters worse, Trayion Durham is again questionable this week. Here we play against home teams off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kent St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. South Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. 10* (335) South Alabama Jaguars

Boston College and Pittsburgh meet for the first time since 2004 when they were in the Big East. The Eagles are coming off an impressive opener as it was able to take down Massachusetts with relative ease after a slow start. Boston College outgained the Minutemen by 309 total yards and while Massachusetts is expected to be one of the worst teams in the country, it was a big game for the Boston College offense which lost a ton from last season. The Eagles gained 511 total yards and Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was outstanding at quarterback. Pittsburgh was equally impressive as it destroyed Delaware 62-0, outgaining the Blue Hens by 444 total yards. As dominating as it was, the Panthers are another team that is going through some rebuilding changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they allowed only 57 total yards but it is tough to gauge exactly how good that is when playing an FCS opponent and a very average one at that. Last season, the Eagles went 5-1 at Alumni Stadium, giving Florida St. a competitive game in their only defeat. They were able to cover both games as a home underdog and it is hard to substantiate them being a home underdog here with so many question marks still looming on the other side. Boston College falls into a great early season situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent). 10* (304) Boston College Eagles

Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks

UTSA came through for us last Friday and while it wasn't overly dominating, it was good enough to put us back on them here. The Roadrunners won by 20 points thanks to a +3 turnover margin advantage but the potential was there to be more dictating, 14 penalties for 115 yards limited their production on both sides. Still, the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 213 yards against a potentially potent offense and it is hard to look past the experience of this team as UTSA has 12 starters back. Arizona was very impressive last week as it destroyed UNLV by 45 points while outgaining the Rebels by 416 total yards. The Wildcats put up 787 total yards which was the most of any team last weekend so the Roadrunners will have their hands full but I expect them to be up to the task in their home opener. This is a very young Arizona offense so we cannot take last week's performance too serious against a UNLV team that has a bowl ban and motivation is low. UTSA lost by 25 points at Arizona last year but it was only outgained by 43 total yards and it will be out for revenge. Arizona is 3-14 ERA in its last 17 road games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more yards while UTSA falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

The Miami Hurricanes made some noise last season by starting off 7-0 and making it as high as seventh in the polls but then they ran into Florida St. and were blown out, the start of three straight losses. While the start of last season was special, it could be even better in 2014 as Miami enters this season free of distractions with there no longer being a cloud hanging over the program because of NCAA investigations. Last season, we talked about how freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was the real deal before his first game against Pittsburgh and that proved correct. Miami is in a similar situation this season as it is also starting a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya and he too is the real deal. With the healthy return of running back Duke Johnson and a great corps of receivers, the offense should be solid and will go up against a Louisville defense that returns only four starters from last season. Miami is catching Louisville at the best possible time as the Cardinals break in a new quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater fled to the NFL and his replacement does not have the same hype. Will Gardner takes over and while he has had a great spring and fall, he will be without his top target as receiver Devante Parker is out with a foot injury and the Preseason ACC First Team players is expected to miss six weeks. That is a big loss for sure. The Hurricanes defense was atrocious last season but they bring back seven starters and the defense will be tougher and more disrupting. The game is a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl, a game #18 Louisville won 36-9 so the Hurricanes will be out for revenge and ruin the Cardinals ACC Debut. Miami is 10-1 ATS under head coach Al Golden when the line is +3 to -3 while going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as conference underdogs of seven points or less. 10* (209) Miami Hurricanes

LSU is once again one of the top teams in the SEC despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL including its starting quarterback, starting running back and top two receivers. The Tigers are now in rebuilding mode and while the recruiting was once again strong, we may see some early issues in the beginning of the season. LSU is going to pound the ball on the ground because of the lack of experience at quarterback. The Tigers will start either sophomore Anthony Jennings or true freshman Brandon Harris and they have never had a true first-year player start a season opener at quarterback. Wisconsin went 9-3 during the regular season last year with all three losses coming by a touchdown or less and the Badgers are the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Wisconsin brings back only 10 returning starters but has 23 different players who made at least one start last year so there is plenty of depth and experience. While the Tigers have never lost a non-conference regular season game under head coach Les Miles, going 45-0 over that stretch, they have not faced too many tests along the way either. In the past 10 years, Wisconsin is 34-2 against non-conference opponents in the regular season, with their only two losses coming to Oregon State in 2012 and Arizona State in 2013, both of which ended with controversial calls against Wisconsin. This game takes place in Houston so there is no real home field edge for either side although LSU should have the higher fan base but it will be insignificant. These two teams are more evenly matched than what the line is telling us and being on a neutral field, I have this game as a pickem so we are catching significant value. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Wisconsin Badgers

After consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Georgia took a step backward last year with only eight wins and finished the season with an 8-5 record after losing to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs suffered through numerous injuries to key players on offense, came into the season with just three returning starters on defense, were -7 in turnover margin and suffered four of their losses by five points or less. All of that equates to a big turnaround this year and they have dropped at low as 18-1 in some spots to win the National Championship Game. Granted, Georgia has to move on without Aaron Murray at quarterback but Hutson Mason is very skilled and he has a lot around him including a healthy Todd Gurley at running back. The defense now brings back eight starters and will be vastly improved. The good news here is they face a Clemson offense that lost some huge impact players including quarterback Taj Boyd, receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Roderick McDowell. I do expect Clemson to have a solid season but this is not the opponent it wants to be facing in its first game of the season ,especially one that is playing with revenge. The Tigers won the meeting last year by a field goal despite getting outgained by 78 total yards and the change in venue only solidifies the revenge factor as Georgia has won 16 straight home openers and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the ACC. The number may seem big here as the teams are only four spots away in the Preseason AP Poll but we all know those rankings mean little. This could be considered a statement game for Georgia as since 2008, it has started every season ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 but only once did it finish the season ranked higher than where it started. This is a big game to get the season rolling. 10* (182) Georgia Bulldogs

Houston comes into the season as a sleeper team from the AAC as it returns 17 starters from last year's 8-5 squad. The Cougars will be potent once again on offense but the issue is the defense where they allowed big numbers once again under head coach Tony Levine, his second with the program. Houston benefited from a +25 turnover margin last season and those things certainly tend to reverse themselves or at least become more in line to the median the following year. Texas-San Antonio is also coming off a wining season and this is a team that could fly under the radar for at least the first part of the season. The Roadrunner have only been in existence since 2009 and didn't start competing until 2011 but having Larry Coker as the head coach was a perfect hire for a new program. They were ineligible for a bowl game last season and they bring a lot of momentum into this season as they won their last five games and carrying that over should not be an issue with 20 starts returning from last year. UTSA is picked to win the C-USA West by a lot of outlets and the schedule sets up well to do so. They went -7 in turnover margin last season and that comes directly into play in this one as the Roadrunners coughed it up five times against Houston last year in a 59-28 loss. Making it even more frustrating is the fact that UTSA actually outgained Houston by two total yards in that game signaling it was a lot closer than the final score indicated. UTSA was favored in that game by a field goal so now we are seeing a line move that is roughly 14 points in most spots and that is too big of an adjustment. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS lifetime on the road and this atmosphere will not be intimidating to the them at all. 10* (151) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Rutgers begins its first season in the Big Ten and many are picking the Scarlet Knights to finish last in the conference in addition to last in the East Division. While they probably won't be going bowling after making the postseason the last three years, this is still a very talented team that returns 16 starters from last season and they should be a competitive bunch. The schedule is not only brutal but they are facing 12 teams they did not face last season so there will be no familiarity in gameplanning. Rutgers has a good opportunity to open the season 4-1 however as this is a very winnable game in my opinion. Washington St. is nothing special and this game isn't even taking place on its home field as it is being played in Seattle. The Cougars will clearly have the fan base but it is just not the same. They finished 6-6 last season and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 but lost to Colorado St. There is little optimism for improvement this year and while the offense should again be potent, the loss of three starters on the offensive line is a concern. Washington St. has been favored against a BCS opponent just three times in the Mike Leach era. It was a 1.5-point favorite against California and Utah last year and while it won both games, there is little reason to believe that the Cougars should be more than a touchdown favorite here. Rutgers falls into a great contrarian as we play on any team in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from last season who lost four or more of their last 5 games and finished with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

It was a huge disappointing season for Tulsa last year. The Golden Hurricane finished 3-9 overall including 2-6 in C-USA and now they take the jump to the much more competitive AAC. The good news is that Tulsa should be much more competitive as well. Last season, they had just nine starters coming back from an 11-3 season in 2012 which was its third straight winning season. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane suffered a ton of injuries along the way but now they are healthy and have 15 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. Losing their last five home games last season should have them pretty amped up come Thursday night on national television. Tulane was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 7-5 and went to its first bowl game since 2002 but ended up losing to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall, the Green Wave dropped four of their last five games so they come in with very little momentum and they will also have to make up for the loss of eight starters. They still struggled away from home last season despite the overall success as they were 2-4 in true road games and have not won more than two road games in a season in over a decade. Tulsa will be playing with revenge in mind as it lost at Tulane 14-7 which was the first loss to the Green Wave after eight straight wins. All of those wins were covers as well and the last four home victories for Tulsa over the Green Wave were by 35, 28, 49 and 35 points and with these teams going in different directions from last season, I expect an easy win for the home team here. 10* (138) Tulsa Golden Hurricane