Sports Picks & Predictions

This one is pretty straight forward and while it is a smaller public play, it is worth taking the side as Alabama has the ability to roll here. The Time crushed USC in their opener and then did a number on a good Western Kentucky team last week as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 236 total yards. Now they hit the highway for their first true road game of the season but this is not just any road game. Alabama has lost two regular season games the last two years and both of those came against Mississippi, both coming by six points. They will be out to avenge those losses in a tough environment nut remember Alabama is 19-2 in its last 21 road games so this team is not scared of any environment. The Rebels blew a big lead against Florida St. in their first game and had a pretty uneven effort against Wofford of the FCS last week and while that can be attributed to a lookahead to this one, they should have still had a better effort. Mississippi is no longer going to be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers which have been behind the curveball the last few years. The Rebels have the best quarterback in the SEC with Chad Kelly, Alabama arguably has its best defense in years and has not forgotten that Kelly lit them up for 341 yards last season. Alabama falls into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that had a winning percentage of .800 or greater last season, after one or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (193) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on BOWLING GREEN for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After going 10-4 last season and winning the MAC Championship, Bowling Green has not gotten off to a great start. The Falcons were absolutely destroyed at Ohio St. in their opener while escaping with a one-point win over North Dakota last week thanks to a missed two-point conversion in the final seconds. However, these results are giving the Falcons enormous value and this is still a very talented team that is again expected to contend for the title in the MAC. The good news on offense is RB Fred Coppet, WR Ronnie Moore, and C Tim McAuliffe, who were injured against North Dakota, practiced Wednesday and are probable for the game Saturday. Middle Tennessee will be a big factor in C-USA this season but placing it in the role of a road favorite is pretty aggressive. After annihilating Alabama A&M in their opener, the Blue Raiders brought little to the table against Vanderbilt, allowing 47 points to the Commodores, the most points they have scored since putting up the same amount against Austin Peay of the FCS last season. That lack of defense will be big for the Falcons to get their offense rolling. This line opened at -3.5 and has shot up three points, further adding to the value. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were an excellent passing team from last season with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Bowling Green is 15-1 in its last 16 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. 10* (132) Bowling Green Falcons

Arizona St. has looked solid out of the gates with two big wins to open the season. The Sun Devils defeated Northern Arizona by 31 points opening weekend then took out Texas Tech last week by 13 points which was highlighted by an incredible eight-touchdown performance from Kalen Ballage. Digging a little deeper however shows that the wins were not as impressive as the scores show as Arizona St. won the yardage battle by just 31 and 40 yards respectively. While offensively the Sun Devils are a potent unit, the defense has been very unimpressive as they have allowed an average of 518.5 ypg which is No. 119 in the country and that will always leave the backdoor open. UTSA defeated Alabama St. in its opener and while it was only by 13 points, the Roadrunners won the yardage battle by 162 yards. They played well last week against Colorado St., losing by just 11 points and being outgained by only 93 yards and that was on the road. They went just 3-9 last season but a big reason for that was experience as they had just five total starters returning and that number jumps to 13 this season. While listed as questionable, UTSA running back Jarveon Williams is expected to play and that is big coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season a year ago. Going back, the Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (108) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Week One saw a lot of offense in the NFL but Buffalo was not in that group, not even close. the Bills managed only 160 total yards and seven points against the Ravens and while many are saying this is a must win game for the Jets, the same can be said about the other side. Buffalo can ill afford to drop to 0-2 with Arizona and New England on deck. The Jets lost a tough one on Sunday as they dropped their game against Cincinnati by a point. Unfortunately, it came down to a missed extra point and now New York hits the road to the same place where its season ended last year in a 22-17 loss to the Bills. The Jets will be out for revenge but playing road revenge is not a good recommendation. For Buffalo, quarterback Tyrod Taylor was ok last week but did not make any big plays what he is certainly capable of. Last season, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. In fact, his 99.4 QBR was ranked seventh in the NFL. Additionally, the he rushed for 568 yards, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. His two starts last season against the Jets were solid and while his numbers were not over the top, he managed both games well. On the other side, the Buffalo secondary is the strength and the Bills held the Jets to under 200 passing yards in both matchups last season. Buffalo won its final four games at home last season and the crown will be a big factor for their first game that happens to be in primetime. We are getting great value here as this game opened with the Bills being a three-point favorite and now they are an underdog in some spots. 10* (102) Buffalo Bills

Following its upset against Oklahoma in Week One, Houston is a legitimate playoff contender as there is not a whole lot standing in its way. The Cougars have a test here on the road and then not another one until a home game against Louisville in Week 12. And this one will be a test. The Cougars are big road favorites because of what already happened and the public is riding them yet again. Cincinnati is also off to a 2-0 start following a solid road win at Purdue last week and it has had this game circled for some time now. Last season, the Bearcats lost at Houston despite outgaining the Cougars 589-427 and they will be out for some payback as they feel they are getting no respect based on the Houston hype and the pointspread assigned to this one. The Bearcats have two solid situations on their side. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points they were a good passing team from last season with a completion percentage of .580 or better, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins and also had a winning record. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing six points or fewer while Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (104) Cincinnati Bearcats

As we saw on Sunday, a large number of heavy public favorites failed to cover the number and overall, the chalk is 4-10 through the first 14 games. Lines are based on some of the numbers of last season as well as expectations for this season and we are seeing a strong case of that here. Even though Washington won the division last year, it is not getting a ton of respect and has actually been picked to finish last in the NFC East (prior to Romo injury) in a few places which really makes no sense. The Redskins bowed out of the playoffs last season in the Wildcard Round following a 4-0 finish to the regular season and they are only better this year. Pittsburgh is once again picked to win the AFC North and this is no doubt a talented team being favored on the road is a tad overaggressive. The Steelers were favored on the road only twice all of last regular season and those games were Week 16 and Week 17 against Baltimore and Cleveland which were meaningless games for the opposition. Pittsburgh finished No. 30 in the NFL last season against the pass and will have a tough time defending DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed. Additionally, the Steelers are banged up on the defensive line so getting any sort of pressure on Kirk Cousins may not happen which will put the secondary in more troubling situations. This line has been bet down to under a field goal in some places but with the public once again hammering the road favorite, we are fine with it and it likely will back up prior to gametime. 10* (480) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the PATRIOTS for our Sunday Night Primetime. The Patriots come into the season with a lot of hype but so much in the beginning of the season. With Tom Brady out the first four games, Jimmy Garoppolo and he should be all set to manage this game properly. The reason behind that is head coach Bill Belichick who loves playing the underdog card and it would not be surprising at all to see Brady come back to a 4-0 record. This line is telling us that the Patriots are pretty serious underdogs but player for player, there is not much of a difference between these two teams with the exception of the quarterback obviously. Arizona had a season a year ago but I do not expect a repeat of that. The Cardinals were fortunate that Seattle got off to a slow start but even with that, you have to give them credit for running the table. If this game were played at this time last year, Arizona may be a three-point favorite at best and there will not be any sneaking up on teams this season and you have to think there has to be some sort of regression. Carolina helped the rest of the league out by showing how to shut Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense down in the playoffs and we can guarantee Belichick has watched that tape a few times. The Patriots strength is the back end of the defense and that is where Palmer carved up a lot of teams last season. Belichick always puts a premium on preventing big plays, and his defense created 10 turnovers during the preseason. Despite going 6-2 at home last season, the Cardinals went just 1-6 ATS over their last seven home games. 10* (477) New England Patriots

This is a play on the CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Game of the Week. The Chargers last won the division back in 2009 and have made the playoffs only one time since then but there is a possibility that changes this season as they are a sleeper by many. Last year, they had their fewest wins since 2003 so they are being counted out already however San Diego was killed by injuries last season and was done because of that. Now healthy, the Chargers could make a run in the division as farfetched as that may sound. The biggest issue was the offensive line but is back to full strength and will give Philip Rivers time in the pocket and open some holes for Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs were not strong enough last season to catch Denver but they certainly turned some heads after winning their final 10 regular season games following a 1-5 start. They blanked the Texans in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs but lost to the Patriot the following week. The biggest concern for Kansas City is its defense as three key players are banged up including Justin Houston who will be out at least seven weeks. Offensively, their offensive line was a concern and while they tried to make improvements in the offseason, the jury is still out if that will be the case. Stopping the run will be big for the Chargers and they have added depth. Kansas City has won four straight meetings in this series but this is a clean slate and almost the opposite of when they met last season as the Chargers are the healthy team, sans Joey Bosa who would have been a nonfactor anyway, and the Chiefs are the banged up squad. Despite all of the struggles and injuries last season, San Diego covered its last six road games, three of those where it was getting a touchdown or more and the Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when getting seven or more points. 10* (463) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Bears are another team people have already written off but they have a chance to be a surprise in the NFC. While Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season as only four players started all 16 games so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffry to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot thanks to some great offseason pickups. The big injury new for Houston is J.J. Watt who is banged up but plans to play Sunday. The real injury news though is on the offensive line where two starters are out and that could prove to be a big problem for newly acquired players Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. Houston made a nice run last season after a 2-5 start as it closed by going 7-2 and was able to back in to a division win because of the Colts injury issues. The Texans went 4-0 in the preseason which means nothing and going back, teams that went undefeated in the preseason and are home favorites in Week One are just 4-11-1 ATS the last 15. Conversely, the Bears went 0-3 in their first three preseason games when starters saw action and that is being taken into account way too much and adding value. Despite going 6-10 last season, the Bears went 5-3 on the road and covered six of their last seven. Houston is the biggest public consensus for Sunday and we will go against that here. 10* (467) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the JAGUARS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have to love going against the hype early in the season as that is what lines are made from, hype and expectations. This is most certainly the case with Green Bay which struggled to find any consistency but now are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though we can expect a highly motivated Packers team, high expectations can create pressure and the pressure is certainly on. While Green Bay used to have no one to give them much resistance, the Vikings are a team on the rise even without Teddy Bridgewater so winning the division is far from a guarantee. Green Bay does in fact have the talent to make a run but coming out of the gates as a big road favorite against an up and coming team is very aggressive. Jacksonville had arguably the best offseason of any team in the league and it came on the needed side. The Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the league last season but on signing day, they picked up defensive lineman Malik Jackson, safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Prince Amukamara. Additionally, they got linebacker Miles Jack and cornerback Jalen Ramsey via the draft not to mention the top pick last year, defensive end Dante Fowler who missed the season after tearing his ACL on the first day on mini-camp. Offensively, Jacksonville has the chance to be a very explosive group and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things together. Quarterback Bortles was ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards and second with 35 touchdowns last season. There is a reason Jacksonville has covered 12 of its last 17 season openers and that is because the expectations are always low in the eyes of the public and the oddsmakers have to adjust. In this case, it was an overadjustment. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on ARKANSAS ST. for our NCAAF Game of the Week. Both Arkansas St. and Auburn are coming off losses last week and while Auburn comes from the far superior conference, it is laying way too many points here. The Tigers lost at home against Clemson by just six points so that may be considered a moral victory but they were outgained 399-262 so the game was not as close as the final score indicated. Clemson is arguably the best team in the country so this is a big step down in class for Auburn but this is a horrible spot. Coming off that disappointing loss and with Texas A&M and LSU on deck, the Tigers will have a tough time getting up for this one. The offense is not powerful enough to cover a number this big especially facing a defense that could be the best in the Sun Belt Conference. That was not the case last week however as Arkansas St. got pummeled at home 31-10 to Toledo while getting outgained by 290 total yards. The biggest surprise of that defeat was that Arkansas St. was actually favored by four points and that was just the fifth loss at home since 2011, going 26-5 over this stretch and while the road has been not nearly as good, the Red Wolves are catching Auburn at the right time. They play at Utah St. next week so there is no lookahead and the Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Meanwhile Auburn has covered just two of its last 12 home games. 10* (345) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on GEORGIA SOUTHERN for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. While there were plenty of upsets last week in college football, the biggest under the radar one was arguably South Alabama defeating Mississippi St. on the road as close to a four-touchdown favorite. The Jaguars rallied from a 20-7 deficit in the fourth quarter as they scored a touchdown with 57 seconds remaining and dodged a bullet when Mississippi St. junior Westin Graves missed a 28-yard field-goal attempt by hitting the left upright with six seconds remaining. This team has been pretty solid since entering the FBS but South Alabama will have a tough time this week. Georgia Southern has been even better since entering the FBS as it has gone 19-7 following its 54-0 romp over Savannah St. last week. The Eagles, which were the fourth best rushing team in the nation last year, started right where they left off as they rushed for 420 yards on 6.1 ypc and that should continue. South Alabama had one of the worst rushing defenses last season, giving up 221 ypg on 5.4 ypc and it allowed 239 yards on the ground last week. In the meeting last season, the Jaguars jumped out to a 7-0 lead but Georgia Southern closed the game out 55-10 and outgained South Alabama 489-74 on the ground. While the disparity may not be that big this time around, it should not be narrowed by too much which gives the Eagles a dominance at the line of scrimmage which leads to an easy cover. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. 10* (375) Georgia Southern Eagles

As stated in a different analysis, Mississippi St. losing to South Alabama was probably the biggest of all of the upsets last week based on the pure talent disparity. While the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year, namely quarterback Dak Prescott, there is no excuse for a SEC from the SEC losing to a team from the Sun Belt Conference that has never had a winning season at the FBS level. While the rushing offense and rushing defense dominated at the line of scrimmage the line of scrimmage, the passing numbers were the difference but we will not have to worry about that in this matchup. South Carolina won a snoozer against Vanderbilt last Thursday 13-10 on a 55-yard field goal with just 35 seconds remaining. The Gamecocks allowed only 242 total yards but that came against one of the worst offenses in the country from a season ago. They will be tested more here both on the ground and through the air where Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams was very sharp, going 20-28 although it resulted in just 143 yards. One thing is for sure, the Bulldogs are not going to take South Carolina for granted and we can give that credit to head coach Dan Mullin as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile the Gamecocks have covered just twice in their last eight games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi St. will be the hungrier team and even though these teams have not met since 2013, coach Mullin will have them know that Mississippi St. has dropped seven straight in this series, last win coming in 1999. 10* (364) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on AKRON for our Saturday Enforcer. We often talk about letdowns and this is the perfect example of one as Wisconsin took down No. 5 LSU last week 16-14 at Lambeau Field so recovering from that should be next to impossible. Sure, the talent gap is pretty wide between these two teams but focus can go a long way and a spread like this only adds to that. After the win over the Tigers, the celebration was huge with Badger players doing the Lambeau Leap and like fans charging the floor in college hoops, it is a great go against spot. Akron had no issues with VMI last week and while things will not be nearly as easy, the linesmakers have done the work for us as the line difference between last week and this week is 53 points. Akron was looking another losing season straight in the face last year but rallied to win its final four games of the season to become bowl eligible and then went on to defeat Utah St. to claim it first ever bowl win. So the Zips have now won six straight games and while we are not calling for the outright win here, it is too many points to pass up with the situation at hand. Momentum goes a long way and the Akron program has plenty of that right so it can inspire a lot of confidence. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game while the Zips are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (329) Akron Zips

We love to bet on good teams coming off subpar efforts because it carries with it excellent line value next time out. In this case, it is Florida which is coming off a pretty poor effort against a pretty bad and inexperienced Massachusetts team. The Gators won 24-7 so they clearly did not show up to play on both sides. The defense did its part by allowing just 187 total yards but the offense could must just 363 yards against a defense that allowed 448 ypg last season and brought back just five starters. There may have been a lookahead to this game and while it is just lowly Kentucky, the Gators surely have not forgotten the meeting from last season when they escaped in Lexington by a score of just 14-9. Overall, the Florida offense was pretty poor last season but was expected to much better this season with a lot of experience back and we should see the breakout here. Kentucky was defeated by Southern Mississippi as it was outscored 34-0 after blowing a 35-10 lead and those losses are sometimes the worst to bounce back from. The Wildcats were supposed to turn things around under head coach Mark Swoops but they have done anything but that as they have not had a winning season under him in three years and in his victories, the best win came against South Carolina in 2014 which went on to finish 7-6. The talent gap is too big here and this is where Kentucky has really struggles as the Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games. 10* (352) Florida Gators

Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak with a resounding 55-6 win over Rhode Island and it seemed like the Jayhawks had just won the Big XII Championship after watching the fans storm the field. It must have not known that Rhode Island was a 1-11 team from last season. Good for Kansas to snap that losing streak but now it looks to go 2-0 for the first time since 2011. As a matter of fact, that was the last time the Jayhawks have won consecutive games, going 0-8 in their last eight games following a victory. Wins over FBS teams has been rare as well as since 2011, Kansas is 10-51, half of those victories coming against teams from the FCS. The Bobcats lost a tough one in their opener as they fell to Texas St. in triple overtime. They led late but Texas St. sent the game into overtime with a field goal and eventually Ohio lost the game on a failed two-point conversion. The Bobcats are coming off a solid 8-5 season and they are expected to once again contend in the MAC East. Last year could have been a lot better but they were derailed with injuries and that actually helps them this year with the experience of a lot more players than they normally would have had. All of this makes the loss to Texas St. that much more baffling especially considering they were favored by 17 points. This game has seen a big line move as Ohio came in as the favorite but the line has shifted up to five points depending on what book. 10* (311) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on RICE for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Army treated us well last Friday night as it went into Temple and won outright 28-13 as a two touchdown underdog. While it was a play on Army, it was more of a play against Temple which was completely overvalued after its spectacular season a year ago. The outright victory from the Black Knights was not expected but it certainly helps us this week with line value and for situational purposes. An adage brought up a lot is that teams are not as good as they looked in their last game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game so while that applies to Army, it also applies to Rice. The Owls got destroyed at Western Kentucky last week by a score of 46-14 but the Hilltoppers are expected to contend once again in C-USA. After three straight winning seasons and three straight bowl appearances, which was a first for the program, the Owls slipped to 5-7 last season after a 4-3 start. There should be plenty of motivation to get back to a bowl game and with 16 returning starters, third most in C-USA, Rice has the ability to succeed. Last week may not have shown that loss put them in a spot knowing it needs to bounce back, especially with a game against Baylor next Friday. This teams is a lot like the 2013 team that brought back 17 starters and won 10 games, something that had not happened since 2008. Army is a putrid 0-14 since 2011 following a victory and now it is laying double-digits against a team desperate for a win. No thanks. 10* (309) Rice Owls

This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange

Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued three years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Two years ago, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and last year, New England ended up pushing with the Steelers. This being said, Super bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-16 ATS over the last 19 games. What Carolina did during the regular season and even in the NFC Playoffs was pretty remarkable but it was done against a fairly easy schedule. The Panthers did beat Seattle on the road but that took a 28-yard touchdown pass in the final minute and they did not defeat any other team on the road that eventually made the playoffs. The Broncos lost their two quarterbacks from last season but it should not be much of a dropoff. Managing the game is the key and Trevor Siemian has the ability to do that. The Denver defense was No. 1 in total defense and No. 4 in scoring defense and it could be even better this season. As far as the line goes, the public has moved this number four points with Carolina now a field goal favorite on the road meaning it would be a double-digit favorite at home and that makes zero sense. Denver should be extremely motivated here to come out strong in defense of its Super Bowl win as well as not accepting the fact it is an underdog here at home. 10* (452) Denver Broncos

We have seen No. 3 and No. 5 go down already this weekend so Florida St. is on upset alert but the Seminoles should have no issues tonight. The Seminoles have been looking forward to this one since last season when they were beaten pretty soundly by Houston 38-24. Mississippi comes in as the No. 11 team in the nation and this is no longer a program that is going to sneak up on any team, especially one that will br vying for a National Championship. There is talk about how good the Rebels rushing defense is going to be and while that may be the case, the Seminoles are in fine shape with Dalvin Cook. Last season, Cook, who averaged 7.38 ypc, played six of the top 30 defenses in yards per carry: No. 1 Boston College, No. 6 Houston, No. 8 Louisville, No. 17 Florida, No. 20 Clemson and No. 29 South Florida. Florida St. has a great situation on its side as we play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (212) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on WYOMING for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. Last year was considered a down season for Northern Illinois as it won just eight games, the first time since 2009 it failed to win at least 11 games. The Huskies will once again contend for the MAC Championship but it will not be easy with the conference getting better as a whole. They did not end well last year with a 20-point loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship and then getting blown out 55-7 to Boise St. in the Poinsettia Bowl. This can certainly have them hungry heading into the season but there are still plenty of doubts, namely on the defense. Northern Illinois allowed 418 ypg which was the most since 2007 and while they return six starters, two big losses are in the front seven with two First Team All-MAC players gone. Wyoming had a miserable season last year as it went just 2-10 but there is optimism this year as the Cowboys welcome back 17 starters. The offense struggled last season but was extremely young and there are nine returnees on that unit. Junior running back Brian Hill was a major contributor for the Cowboys offense last season. He finished with 1,631 rushing yards (135.9 ypg, 5.8 ypc) and was a Doak Walker Finalist. While they averaged just 19 ppg, they will be better and have a chance to come out strong against a weak Huskies defense. Laramie is not an easy place for teams coming from the east to play based on the altitude and this team could be gassed late in the game. Wyoming falls into a solid situation where we play on Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were a good passing team from last season with a completion rate of 58 percent or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (208) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on CLEMSON for our SATURDAY STAR ATTRACTION. This is the perfect game for Clemson to start with this season as a quality road win is just what it needs. The Tigers have some unfinished business to take care of after running the table with a 14-0 record but ultimately losing to Alabama in the BCS Championship. They are certainly going to out on a mission and with games on deck against Troy and South Carolina St., there will be no looking ahead here despite knowing the struggles of Auburn as this is a tough environment no matter what. The Clemson offense finished No. 11 overall and should be even better this season with eight starters back and numerous returnees on the two-deep chart. The defense will be the concern with only four starters back but it was still very solid last season despite bringing back only three starters. Additionally, a ton of players that did not start last year got quality playing time. Auburn went just 6-6 last season but was able to pull out a bowl win over Memphis to give it some positive momentum heading into this season. The offense had its worst year since 2012 as the Tigers averaged just 370 ypg which was down by 115 ypg from the previous year. The offense has thrived in the past with mobile quarterbacks but once again, they will not have that luxury as Sean White, more of a true drop back passer, won the starting job. That is not an ideal scheme against an aggressive Clemson defense that will be keying on stopping the run and blitzing from all angles. While this is the perfect opener for Clemson as mentioned, it is the worst possible opener for Auburn facing one of the best offenses in the nation while sorting out its defense with another new defensive coordinator. 10* (183) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on NEBRASKA for our SATURDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The first year under head coach Mike Riley was not a huge disappointment despite the 5-7 record. The Huskers were the most unfortunate team in the country as they had five last second losses including a loss on Hail Mary against BYU in their season opener which pretty much set the tone for the rest of the season. Despite a 5-7 record, they were invited to a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams and they gladly accepted it. Nebraska defeated UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl which was a big win to carry forward into this year. While winning the Big Ten may be a stretch, the Huskers will be contending for the West Division even though their three biggest obstacles are taking place on the road. Nebraska has 13 starters back led by an offense that returns starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong as well as its leading rusher and top six receivers. Fresno St. really struggled last season as it had five straight FBS losses to open the season and was never able to recover as it went just 3-9 after three straight winning seasons. The Bulldogs should take a step forward this season but it will likely be just a small step. The Bulldogs averaged a mere 178.3 passing ypg last season and will start a redshirt freshman, Chason Virgil, at quarterback. Overall, Fresno St. ranked No. 100 or higher in seven of nine major national statistical categories on offense and defense last season. On defense, it is definitely a rebuilding effort with only five returning starters and a new defensive coordinator. This is not a good sign for a team that finished No. 118 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 116 in rushing defense. The Bulldogs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while Nebraska is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. 10* (200) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on UL-LAFAYETTE for our GAME OF THE WEEK. After four straight 9-4 seasons for Louisiana, 2015 was a lot different. Last season was a major disappointment as the Cajuns failed to possess a winning record for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth so there should be a big rebound in Lafayette. The offense, despite having to replace its starting quarterback, should be better with All American candidate Elijah McGuire at running back. Taking over at quarterback is Anthony Jennings, a graduate transfer from LSU who started 12 games for the Tigers in 2014 so he has some big game experience. Overall, 14 starters are back and Louisiana is expected to regain its form to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. The Cajuns will be tested right out of the gate and because of the struggles last season, they are getting a huge number here at home. Boise St. went just 9-4 last year which was a disappointment mostly because it was unable to win the MWC. The Broncos are expected to have a better season although they do come in unranked. Offensively, they bring back the main cogs and will be explosive but the defense is a huge concern. The Broncos are set at linebacker, but have little experience on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield. It will be up to the defensive veterans to lead the defense as it grows and finds itself. Overall, they only have five starters back on that side of the ball. The Cajuns have cherished the role of underdog, going 18-9 ATS under Hudspeth including a perfect 2-0 as home underdogs, both resulting in outright winners. This was originally scheduled for a 7:00 PM local time start but was moved up to the afternoon and that is a huge edge for the home team with the forecast calling for a hot and humid day, something the Broncos are not accustomed to. 10* (204) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

Football starts early on Saturday as Boston College and Georgia Tech square off in Ireland in what can be considered a must win for both teams. They are both coming off dreadful seasons a year ago which was more surprising for Georgia Tech than it was for Boston College. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 including a 1-7 record in the ACC and after a 2-0 start, they were unable to get anything going. The Eagles finished with an identical 3-9 record but went winless in the conference as their offense was dreadful. Two of their wins came against teams from the FCS while the other was a three-point win at home against Northern Illinois. We need to figure out which team, if any, can bounce back this season and the answer to that is Georgia Tech. Last year was the worst season at the school for head coach Paul Johnson and he will no doubt have his team focused for this opening game. He has always been a strong starter and going back, the Yellow Jackets are 24-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season including an 18-9 ATS record under Johnson and he has only lost twice in the first game of the season against an FBS team. Georgia Tech gets its quarterback, top three running backs and top two receivers back so after slipping in offense last season, it should be ready for a big rebound. Six of its nine losses were by one possession so the Yellow Jackets were closer to having a good season than the record shows. The Eagles lost some close games as well only because the defense kept things close but they will have a tough time with this option offense. Look for the Yellow Jackets to pull away in this one. 10* (153) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Temple was one of if not the biggest surprises of college football last season, winning 10 games after winning just eight in the first two seasons under head coach Matt Rhule. The Owls nearly upset Notre Dame along the way as well so they will be coming into this season as significantly overrated and we are seeing it already in Game One of the season. This is the first time since 2008 that Temple is favored in a season opener against a team from the FBS and it is a pretty big number to say the least. Army disappointed last season with a 2-10 record but it was the best double-digit loss team in the country if there is such a thing. The Black Knights were outgained by an average of just 38 ypg and outscored by only 5.7 ppg which shows how competitive they really were. Army lost seven games by a touchdown or less including four by four points or less and while they were not against any elite teams, we definitely cannot put Temple into that category despite their solid record last season because it played a fairly easy schedule as well. Army has 16 starters back so it can build on what was accomplished last season even though it did not show up in the win column. One of those is quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw who left the team a couple weeks ago only to change his mind the next day and return to West Point. Conversely, Temple has just 12 starters back after returning 19 starters a season ago so bringing back experience can go a long way for sure. The road has been unkind to the Black Knights since 2011 with just one victory but that win came last season while this is the most experienced team over this timeframe. 10* (147) Army Black Knights

Indiana went to a bowl game last season for the first time since 2007 and despite a 6- overall record, the Hoosiers were a lot better than that record shows as five losses came by a touchdown or less and three of those were against Ohio St., Michigan and Iowa. While the Hoosiers went 3-2 on the road last season, equaling that mark will not be easy especially with the loss of their starting quarterback, leading rusher and seven other starters. Indiana covered both games last season when laying points on the road but those were both under a touchdown. Things have improved in each of the three years for Florida International under head coach Ron Turner, going from one win to four wins to five wins. There is room for an even bigger jump this season thanks to nine returning starters on offense, a unit that struggled last season but should get a lot better. The big factor is returning quarterback Alex McGough who was solid last season, completing 64 percent of his passes while tossing 21 touchdowns and just eight picks. He struggled late in the season because of injuries to his receivers and offensive line but the entire line is back as is his top three receiving targets. Defensively, the Golden Panthers were pretty bad but should also be better this season as the back seven returns five of their starters. There is a solid revenge factor here as Florida International went to Indiana last season and had a lead in the fourth quarter but failed to pull it off as a 96-yard pick-six was the difference. As far as line value, the Golden Panthers were getting 7.5 points and now they are getting more at home. Additionally, we play on home underdogs 3.5 to 10 points that had a completion percentage of .620 or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) since 1992. 10* (134) Florida International Golden Panthers

Tennessee enters the 2016 season with some very lofty expectations and rightfully so. The Volunteers are ranked No. 9 in the Preseason AP Poll and while rankings are meaningless now and throughout the season, it does show how they are expected to compete. Tennessee actually received a first place vote in the USA Today/Amway Coaches Preseason Poll and it would not be surprising for this team to make a playoff run. The two toughest SEC games are at home against Alabama and Florida and the rest of the slate is very doable. Momentum is huge as the Volunteers win their last six games last season and all of their four losses were by seven points or less. Additionally, they are loaded with 17 starters returning. While Appalachian St. has had a lot of success since moving into the FBS in 2014, we have to remember where it plays and which teams it plays against. The Mountaineers have gone 13-3 in the Sun Belt Conference which is a phenomenal record no matter where a team plays but the level of competition is a lot different here. They have gone 5-4 in non-conference games the last two years but three of those wins came against teams from the FCS while two of the losses came against power conference teams by a combined score of 93-24. As a matter of fact, since their upset win at Michigan in 2007, they have gone 0-6 against the power conferences, losing by an average of 37.8 ppg. Appalachian St. was a road underdog just once last season which shows its level of competition. Momentum is big in this spot as we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (190) Tennessee Volunteers

California had eight straight winning seasons between 2002 and 2009 but has had just two since then and while last year was one of those, it was a major disappointment. The Golden Bears had one of the top quarterbacks in college football in Jared Goff but managed an underachieving 8-5 record that included four wins by six points or less. While Goff has departed, so have plenty of other starters on offense and it will take a while for this unit to come together. The Golden Bears lost their six top receivers as well and while quarterback Davis Webb, a graduate transfer from Texas Tech, has the ability to put up big numbers, it may not happen right away as this offense will need time to gel. Additionally, they lost offensive coordinator Tony Franklin who left for Tennessee. On the other side, the defense allowed 27 or more points nine times, allowing an average of 30.7 ppg which was No. 89 in the country and there is no reason to believe the defense will improve this season. California returns just five starters from last season and overall it lost six of its top eight defensive linemen, five of its top seven linebackers, and two starters in the secondary. This is a recipe for disaster since the Golden Bears defense will be on the field a ton because of the pass happy offense. Hawaii has been a disaster for years, going 11-39 over the last four seasons. The Warriors brought in a new head coach in Nick Rolovich, a former quarterback that is expected to turn things around. Hawaii had one of the worst offenses in the nation last season but it brings back a lot on that side of the ball including an experienced quarterback in Ikaika Woolsey and nine other starters. The Warriors will be better on defense and catching a rebuilding California offense now is perfect timing. This line is based on past history and the Golden Bears are completely overvalued considering they have been favored away from home only three times since 2012. 10* (292) Hawaii Warriors

Public reaction and recent results are playing a big role in this Super Bowl line which is the case every year considering this is the most wagered on game across all sport by a wide margin. Carolina rolled through the playoffs with very impressive home wins as they destroyed Arizona after jumping up on Seattle 31-0 the previous week. Conversely, Denver escaped with a pair of close wins at home against Pittsburgh and New England so those games alone are going to inflate this line. The Panthers have just one loss this season which is a big reason they are a significant favorite but of course that one loss came away from home and of their seven wins, only one came against a playoff team when they scored a late touchdown to take care of the Seahawks. There is a very interesting dynamic in this game and it is based on recent results and how the linesmakers need to open and move lines based on those results. Since 2004, 15 teams have scored 40 or more points in a playoff game with another playoff game upcoming and the results have not been good for those teams. The team that scored 40 or more points has gone on to lose 9 of the next 15 playoff games outright while going just 2-12-1 ATS. One of those covers came in last year's Super Bowl which was just a yard away from being a different result while the other ATS win came back in 2010 when the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 in a game where Jay Cutler was lost to injury and Chicago was down to third string quarterback Caleb Hanie. Additionally, of those six outright follow up wins, that Green Bay win was the only one by more than four points. Denver is the 12th team in history to enter the Super Bowl with the top scoring defense in the NFL and 9 of the previous 11 left with an outright victory. Listening to the TV talking heads, many are shocked the line is this low and they are saying this one has the look of the Denver and Seattle Super Bowl from two years ago. That's what we like to hear. 10* (102) Denver Broncos

The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Cardinals being one of those teams. While it can be argued they escaped with the victory in overtime thanks to Green Bay never seeing the ball, the game really should have never gone into overtime. Arizona was certainly sloppy last week, most notably Carson Palmer who made some poor throws that led to two costly interceptions but he still completed 61 percent of his passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals bring in a different offense than what Seattle brought into Carolina as they can stretch it out more and have more balance as they were the only team in the regular season to finish in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense. Carolina built a huge lead last Sunday and barely held on while getting outgained by 108 yards as costly mistakes by the Seahawks on the wrong sides of the field did them in. The Cardinals won and covered their only game as an underdog this season and going back, they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss. Additionally, we play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (313) Arizona Cardinals

The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Patriots being one of those teams. The linesmakers were forced to make New England a favorite here knowing what sort of action would be coming in. The first look here is at the home underdog but this is a tough matchup for Denver now that the Patriots are healthy. The offensive line did a great job last week in protection, not allowing a single sack or hit, and it is the quick passing game that will give the Broncos fits this time around. Denver was pretty fortunate to win last week against a depleted Steelers team and the offense clearly cannot carry this team. The Patriots have a very underrated front seven and they are going to force Peyton Manning to win this game with his arm which will not happen. Over the last 30 yards, the No. 1 seed has been a home underdog in the Conference Championship and has lost all three times. While revenge isn't a big factor when it comes to big games like this, the Patriots are 11-1 ATS revenging a same season loss as a road favorite and that comes down to coaching. The home team has won and covered the six meetings in this series with Brady vs. Manning but the latter is not close to the same player from past meetings. 10* (311) New England Patriots

This line was on and off the board all week due to the Steelers injury situation and has been confirmed that both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out. The number reached nine in a couple places but settled back down to -7.5 and while we are on the wrong side of the key number of seven, it should not come into play here. Don't be surprised to see this one go up more by gametime so betting it early in the day is likely the right move. The absence of Williams last week against Cincinnati did not matter as the Steelers rushed for 167 yards on 29 carries (5.8 ypc) but things will be tougher here. The Broncos bring in the top ranked rushing defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc compared to the Bengals which allowed a full yard more per carry. One stat that came into play yesterday was the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Julian Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. We saw what a difference it made yesterday. For the Steelers, when Brown is off the field which was only 88 plays over the past couple of seasons, the Steelers average just 1.6 yppl. On the other side, we don't anticipate Peyton Manning to carry the offense but he is clearly as healthy as he has been all season and an improved running game will definitely help. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (308) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the SEAHAWKS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Seattle has no business being here as it was able to advance thanks to a missed 27-yard field goal from the Vikings. But in reality, the Seahawks played a great game in elements they are not accustomed to and I foresee them taking advantage of this opportunity. Offensively, it was a challenge and the weather did play a role in that which I did not think it would so it came down to the defenses and both played exceptional. Seattle allowed just three field goals, although it should have been four, and this defense continues to dominate as over their last six road games, they have allowed an average of 7.2 ppg and even more impressive, they have allowed an offensive touchdown only once in those six games. The Carolina offense goes as Cam Newton goes so shutting him down, or at least slowing him down, is the key for the Seahawks defense. That may be stating the obvious but we saw it in the first meeting this season in Seattle as they shut the Panthers down the majority of the game until the ferocious comeback by Carolina which pulled off the upset as a touchdown underdog. While this is a No. 1 vs. No. 6 matchup, it is far from that at this point in the season. Seattle falls into a great spot as we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers per game while the Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (305) Seattle Seahawks

This number is stuck on seven as of Wednesday afternoon and likely is not going to move until gameday when public money comes pouring in on the Cardinals. A big reason for that is they have been a great home team this year, or are they? Arizona blew away San Francisco and Green Bay but the other four wins were all within just one possession late in the game. The win over Green Bay is affecting the betting market as well as the Packers were destroyed by 30 points as they were never in it. We will see a better Green Bay performance here as the Packers finally woke up last week with a big win in Washington. The line is also on our side as high as it is as underdogs of at least seven points have gone 29-19 ATS (60.4 percent) during the postseason including a 17-9 ATS record (65.4 percent) during the Divisional Round. That record improves to 11-2 ATS (84.6 percent) when the favorite is getting more than 50 percent of the action. Additionally, road teams are 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 2005 in the Divisional Round when coming off a road win. Two of those three covers losses were by just 4.5 points combined (Baltimore by 3.5 points in 2010 against Pittsburgh and Washington by 1 point in 2005 against Seattle. Granted, all four game fall into this situation but this is one of only two games where major recent injuries are not coming into play. The Packers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after that first meeting in Week 16 and adjustments will be made to fix some of the problems that occurred. Going back, the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games while the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. 10* (303) Green Bay Packers

Kansas City is coming off its 11th straight win as it went to Houston last Saturday, returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and never looked back in a 30-0 victory. The score shows a domination but the Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 88 total yards as they were fortunate that Brian Hoyer played one of his worst games ever and took advantage of five Houston turnovers. The Chiefs take a big step up in class here as they head to New England to take on the Patriots and we are getting a good value line here. New England got a much needed week off to rest and heal up as well as getting a break following two losses to end the regular season. Both of those losses came on the road and the Patriots come in with a 7-1 home record. The lone loss came against the Eagles where they won the yardage battle by 179 yards but Philadelphia scored two touchdowns on special teams and another on a 99-yard interception return. The Patriots are getting Julian Edelman back which is a huge boost for the offense. To put it into perspective, the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. Here, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-16 ATS (69.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, New England is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 5.65 or fewer yppl and 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after being outgained by 150 or more ypg in its previous game. 10* (302) New England Patriots

We made a bad call on Michigan St. against Alabama and in hindsight it was the type of matchup that the Crimson Tide thrive on defensively but Clemson brings in a whole different system. The Tigers took it to Oklahoma and while that defense is far from that of Alabama, they can have some success against the Crimson Tide. I am not expecting them to move it up and down the field the whole game, but they will get their shots. Deshaun Watson is the type of quarterback who gives the Tide problems. He has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five of his last six games and is averaging 107.7 ypg on 5.92 ypc. Of the past six quarterbacks who beat Alabama, Chad Kelly of Mississippi, Cardale Jones of Ohio St., Bo Wallace of Mississippi, Trevor Knight of Oklahoma, Nick Marshall of Auburn and Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, only Wallace averaged fewer than 4 ypc in that season while Knight, Marshall and Manziel each averaged more than 6 ypc. Watson poses not only a run threat but also a deep passing threat, where Alabama has been vulnerable at times. The Alabama offense put up 440 yards against Michigan St. but now faces a quicker and more athletic defense in Clemson and quarterback Jake Coker will not have nearly the same success here as he did against the Sooners. Clemson is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 games away from home after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while going 6-0 in its last six neutral site games. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (152) Clemson Tigers

The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on WASHINGTON for our NFL Game of the Year. Surprisingly, Washington is the lone home favorite in this year's Wild Card round and it might not even last considering that the Packers are, and will be in the postseason, a very public team. We played on Green Bay this past Sunday as it was trying to clinch the NFC North and it failed to do so at home no less. The Packers may have been better off with that loss as heading to Washington is arguably a better opportunity to win than playing Seattle in the first round but at this point, the Packers are just not a good football team. Green Bay has played only one bad game since the end of October as it is 3-3 in its last six games and one of those wins came on a Hail Mary and another came against Oakland in a game they lost the yardage battle by 79 yards. Washington meanwhile is peaking at the right time as it has won four straight games to claim the NFC East. The offense has been sensational over this stretch and can go toe-to-toe with the Packers if need be but that won't be necessary. While the Redskins yardage differential is not very good, finding ways to win is what counts and that is what they have been doing. They are 6-1 in their last seven home games, covering five of those and a win here likely means a cover. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (108) Washington Redskins

These teams met here just over a month ago and we are seeing a total that is filled with value as it is three points less now based on recent results. The Seahawks have gone under the total in four straight games as the defense was outstanding in three of those games while the offense didn't show up in the loss to the Rams. The Vikings meanwhile have been an under team all season, staying below the total in 11 of 16 games including the last one on Sunday against the Packers that decided the NFC North. While the Seahawks have been playing at a high level of late, they have been unusually inconsistent and while they held Minnesota to just seven points and 125 total yards in that first meeting, the Vikings will have a better gameplan this time around. Minnesota has averaged 31.8 ppg on offense since that Seattle game. Going back, the over is 9-2 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 7-0 to the over in their last seven games against teams averaging 4.5 ypc or more. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Seahawks last six games against teams with a winning record while the over is 16-6 in their last 22 games coming off a win over a divisional rival as an underdog .This total has already come down two points from its opener which signals a defensive battle but I expect the opposite on Sunday. 10* Over (103) Seattle Seahawks/(104) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on CINCINNATI for our Saturday Enforcer. This is the second meeting here in a month and the Bengals will be out to avenge a loss from that game. That was the game quarterback Andy Dalton was injured so there is definitely some added motivation even though the rivalry alone is sufficient. It is pretty common knowledge that Cincinnati has struggled during the postseason over the recent years but this is the best Bengals team during this stretch even though they come in on an average 4-4 run over the second half. Cincinnati actually outgained the Steelers in that loss while the other three losses came by just 3, 3 and 4 points. Dalton has not been declared out but has been downgraded to doubtful which means it is pretty much assured he is not going to play. A.J. McCarron has been very solid however and will be just fine here. Obviously the Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have a lot more expereience and its offense continues to roll but take away an interception return for a touchdown and Pittsburgh has averaged just 18 ppg in the first two meetings. Cincinnati hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the sixth-longest streak of postseason futility in NFL history and I really believe this is the best opportunity for to end, Dalton or no Dalton. Here, we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on HOUSTON for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting that the Chiefs won 27-20 before going on to lost five straight games. It has been quite the turnaround however as Kansas City enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL with a 10-game winning streak but this has to be one of the least dominant teams involved in a streak of this magnitude. The Chiefs are outgaining opponents by less than two ypg and a lot of that is because of an anemic offense that is ranked 27th overall. They make it up with a solid defense but even those rankings are not as good as those from Houston. The Texans won their last three games to win the AFC South and while those wins were all against poor teams, Houston owns quality wins over the Jets and Bengals and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 37.6 ypg. With Brian Hoyer back at quarterback, the Texans offense has an extra spark as he quietly had a solid season with a 91.4 quarterback rating while tossing 19 touchdowns and just seven picks. Houston has been outgained just once in its last nine games and while a deep playoff run is unlikely, the matchup here is a good one and getting home points makes it even stronger. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record while the Texans are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (102) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday night Primetime game. The NFC North Divisional title is on the line Sunday night between the Vikings and Packers. We played on them last week and they burnt us badly as they were demolished in Arizona but we will be backing them again this week at home. Minnesota meanwhile destroyed the Giants last Sunday night in a game the Giants had nothing to play for so these two recent results is keeping this line at a manageable number. This game is nothing new for Green Bay as it will play for the NFC North title in the regular-season finale for a third straight season after winning the first two. It has been an up and down season for the Packers and despite two home losses, they actually won the yardage battle in those games. The offense has looked shaky as Aaron Rodgers has at times looked uncomfortable but this is the stage he loves as he has never lost a home divisional game when coming off a loss and facing an opponent that is coming off a victory. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (326) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played against the Chiefs last week and will do so again this week as they continue to be overvalued. Sure, Kansas City has won nine straight games but has done so in ugly fashion as it has outgained only one opponent by more than 82 yards and the Chiefs have actually been outgained in four of their last five games. While there is more on the line for Kansas City, this is a big game for Oakland as a win would put the Raiders at 8-8 for the first time since 2011. On the season, Oakland is getting outgained by just 23.2 ypg and of their eight losses, four have come by less than what it is getting here. Additionally, the Raiders have the benefit of extra rest following their last game which was last Thursday. Here, we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 or more ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Raiders are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (315) Oakland Raiders

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Rams are the lone road favorite with no playoff implications but their upset win last Sunday at Seattle coupled with the season long problems for San Francisco has put them in a rare road favorite role. St. Louis has won and covered three straight games while the 49ers have lost three in a row both straight up and against the number putting the home team in a great contrarian spot here. The real kicker is that despite the three straight victories, the Rams were outgained in all three games and have been outgained in seven straight games. San Francisco meanwhile has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Here, we play against favorites after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 59-27 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win against a division rival. 10* (330) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. Detroit has won two straight games and five of its last seven and it could be even better if not for that Green Bay successful Hail Mary a few weeks back. The Lions are just 2-5 on the road after finishing .500 at home. Chicago is coming off a win at Tampa Bay last week to bring in an identical 6-9 record as the Lions in a fight to stay out of the NFC North basement. We are catching a smaller than anticipated line because the Bears are just 1-6 at home including losses in four straight. Those all came by three points or less or in overtime, three coming against teams that will be in the postseason. The Bears will be out for some major payback as they have lost the last five meetings in this series. Additionally, they will look to avoid back-to-back double-digit losing seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (322) Chicago Bears

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Jets are coming off a huge win last week against the Patriots and a win here gets them into the playoffs. This line is inflated because of that as New York is 4-3 on the road while the Bills bring in an identical home record. While it was a disappointing season for Buffalo, getting back to .500 would be a solid achievement and of course, Rex Ryan would like nothing more than to prevent his former employers from making into the playoffs. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record while the Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bills

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Patriots lost last week in New York to prevent them from clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs but a win in Miami still gets them that goal. Winning and covering are two different things however. New England is clearly the superior team in this matchup but that has been the case for a while in this series yet the Patriots have struggled here the last three years including two outright losses and a win by just seven points. Miami would like the season on a high note and snap a three-game skid. New England was favored by just four points more at home against Tennessee which shows the overinflation of this number. Miami falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on ARKANSAS for our Bowl Game of Year. Surprisingly, there have been three teams this bowl season that entered with five wins and won their bowl game, San Jose St., Minnesota and Nebraska. I do not see that happening for Kansas St., not even close. I consider them a five-win team because one win came against South Dakota of the FCS and another came against 0-12 Kansas so the six wins are skewed. It would be a great way to end the career of head coach Bill Snyder but this is a horrible matchup for the Wildcats. And it still may not even be his last year because rumors are swirling he wants to come back for one more season. Arkansas was supposed to have a breakout season but instead, finished 7-5 no thanks to early losses against Toledo, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks did go on to win sic of their last eight games however, one loss coming against Alabama and the other coming against Mississippi St. by just one point. Three of those victories came on the road at Tennessee, Mississippi and LSU so those were definitely quality wins. The offense really got things going late in the season and the Razorbacks finished 2nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while on the other side of the ball, Kansas St. finished 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency so it will be a complete mismatch. The Wildcats offense also finished 75th so those are two horrible rankings for a supposed bowl team. Arkansas was not a great defensive team but the only team that lit it up in regulation was Mississippi St. as three of their games went into overtime. Arkansas has a great situation on its side as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (276) Arkansas Razorbacks

Oklahoma St. had a chance to run the table in the Big XII after a 10-0 start but was gashed at home against Baylor and two different backup quarterbacks before getting annihilated against Oklahoma, also at home, to end the regular season. I don't see how this team can get up even though it is a major bowl game. And even if the Cowboys do, they are going to have a tough time stopping the Mississippi offense. The Rebels are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense, racking up 514.8 ypg and 40.3 ppg respectively. They are balanced and the running game will be a huge advantage here as they really picked things up the last five games since the return of Laremy Tunsil on the offensive line. Oklahoma St. is ranked 83rd against the run with 185.3 ypg allowed and gave up 344 to the Sooners in their last game. The Rebels amassed 200 or more yards in three of those final five games. Oklahoma St. has an explosive offense but the Rebels match up well. We saw a similar outcome on Tuesday when LSU, which has a similar defense, held another spread offense, Texas Tech, to just 27 points and 399 total yards. The Rebels will be without defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche which is a tough loss but there is plenty more talent on that side of the ball. The Cowboys quarterback situation is sticky as starting quarterback Mason Rudolph missed most of the Oklahoma game because of a foot injury which required surgery. He is questionable and is far from 100 percent. 10* (271) Mississippi Rebels

This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal

Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Not many seem to giving Michigan St. a chance in this game and the line is telling us a similar story but the Spartans match up pretty well with Alabama and have a legitimate shot at an upset as long as they do not shoot themselves in the foot. The Crimson Tide have one of the best defenses ever under head coach Nick Saban and that is saying a lot as there have been some outstanding stop units in Tuscaloosa. Slowing down the penetration of the Alabama defensive line is critical for the Spartans they have the talent on their offensive line to do so. That will help quarterback Conner Cook, who has declared himself as 100 percent healthy, be able to stay in the pocket and create some plays downfield. On the other side, Derrick Henry is a beast, but Alabama's offense plays into the hands of Michigan St.'s defense as the Spartans want you to run the ball because their defensive weakness is in the secondary. Alabama quarterback has done a solid job of running the offense but he has not been asked to make big plays in key situations and has not been a downfield threat all season. Michigan St. falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Michigan St. is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams allowing 3.25 ypc or less and 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against teams with a winning percentage of .7500 or better. 10* (259) Michigan St. Spartans

This line opened anywhere from -1 to -3 pretty much across the board and now we are seeing a minimum of -3.5 everywhere as of early Tuesday. That is the number we wanted and will hit it with Clemson getting at least a hook over the key number. These are two of the best offenses in the country as Oklahoma is ranked 6th in total offense with Clemson coming in 11th in total offense, the difference being just over 30 ypg. Both teams are extremely balanced and have the ability to score anywhere from the field so there is no huge advantage either way. Defensively, Clemson is better by 54.5 ypg and there is a pretty big intangible involved here where the Sooners numbers are skewed. They won at Baylor and at home against TCU against backup quarterbacks and they won those by just 11 points combined. They rolled over Oklahoma St. in their final game but still allowed 457 total yards. Clemson has the 7th ranked passing efficiency defense and 23rd in rushing defense so the Tigers are balanced on that side of the ball as well. They defeated North Carolina by just eight points in the ACC Championship but completely dominated the yardage battle and held the Tar Heels to more than 100 yards below their season average. Some will point to motivation for the Sooners after getting thumped last season 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl but that has no bearing here as motivation is not an issue on either side and one team will not be more motivated than the other. This line should be more around a pickem so we will grab the inflated number here. 10* (262) Clemson Tigers

Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles

This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies

This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This was by far the worst season offensively under Gus Malzahn at Auburn as they finished 77th in the country with 27.2 ppg, and 95th in the nation with 367.3 ypg. A lot of that can be blamed on the fact that the Tigers were never able to find consistency from the quarterback position which continues here. Auburn has yet to name a starting quarterback in this game and while that could be a disadvantage for Memphis because of preparation, it is really telling us that the quarterback situation is a mess for Auburn. Defensively, Auburn was just as bad as it had one of its worst years in recent memory as it finished 91st in total defense and will surely struggle against this Memphis offense that is ranked 12th in yardage and sixth in points scored. Quarterback Paxton Lynch had a great season, throwing for 3,670 yards and 28 touchdowns and just three picks so there is a clear advantage at that position for Memphis. Additionally, defensive coordinator will Muschamp will not be coaching as he headed to South Carolina which further complicates matter for Auburn. Head coach Justin Fuente has moved on to Virginia Tech but there should not be much continuity lost as Darrell Dickey will be the interim head coach and he has been with Fuente during all four years at Memphis as the co-offensive coordinator so the offense will not suffer. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (249) Memphis Tigers

It was a great start to the season for LSU as it was ranked second in the initial College Football Playoff rankings but then faced Alabama and was dominated in the trenches. That was the first of three straight losses but the Tigers defeated Texas A&M in their season finale which saved head coach Les Miles' job. While the season long goals have been lost, a win here is big to gain momentum going into next year while proving that keeping Miles was the smart move and the Tigers should no issues rolling in this matchup. Motivation should be pretty high for Texas Tech as well but motivation can only go so far when matchups are at a huge disadvantage. The Red Raiders test their second-ranked offense against a top-25 defense that is fast and athletic. The Tigers as mentioned struggled against Alabama while also struggling against a similar style in Arkansas but match up well against a spread offense as witnessed in the game against Texas A&M. The Red Raiders rank 126th out of 127 FBS teams in total defense, including giving up 273.3 ypg on the ground which is ranked 126th. That is where LSU is going to control the game as the running game behind Leonard Fournette will have a field day. Fournette rushed for 1,741 yards this year and his only bad games were the three losses but those were against rushing defenses ranked 1st, 16th and 28th. The Red Raiders allowed Texas to run for 403 yards on 8.4 ypc in their season finale and will get gashed again here. 10* (248) LSU Tigers

We should see a highly motivated North Carolina team on Tuesday despite a tough finish to the season. North Carolina was picked to finish No. 5 in the Coastal Division after a 6-7 record in 2014 but the Tar Heels went undefeated in the ACC and lost a tough one against Clemson in the ACC Championship. The offense will be the key here as the Tar Heels ranked No. 20 in total offense, and actually led the Bears in yards per play (7.33 to 7.25). Quarterback Marquise Williams had a great season but was overshadowed by Deshaun Watson from Clemson and he presents big problems for Baylor as he is a duel threat signal caller. He has a bevy of receivers to throw the ball to and he also has Elijah Wood in the backfield who was a First Team All-ACC back after putting up 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns. Baylor sophomore quarterback Chris Johnson has been clearly to play but he is far from the same player as Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham. Johnson has thrown for 220 yards and three touchdowns but his completion percentage is just 39.5 percent. Not only that but the Bears will be without Biletnikoff winner Corey Coleman. He has been by far the most targeted receiver as he has 34 percent of receptions, 37 percent of receiving yards and 74 percent of touchdown receptions. Additionally, All-Big XII running back Shock Linwood has been downgraded to doubtful. We have seen the line shift the other way but it is the right move and will not come into play. 10* (244) North Carolina Tar Heels

There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears

Playoff implications are on the line tonight in Denver for both the Broncos and Bengals. Because of the Steelers loss yesterday, Cincinnati clinched the AFC North and still has a fighting chance for a No. 1 seed. While it may have been unheard of a few weeks ago, but the Broncos can actually miss the playoffs. That means this game means even more to Denver which can clinch a playoff berth with a win but would fall behind the Chiefs and Jets to No. 6 with a loss. Denver could finish anywhere from the top seed at 12-4 to out of the playoffs if the Steelers also finish 10-6 which is very possible as they play Cleveland next week. After three consecutive victories, the Broncos have dropped two straight despite winning the yardage battle in both. As a matter of fact, Denver has won the yardage battle in all five games quarterback Brock Osweiler has started. The Bengals won in San Francisco last Sunday and heading out west again puts them in a tough spot. This will be the first real test for quarterback A.J. McCarron who was solid against the 49ers, ranked last in ypa, but now faces a Broncos defense ranked first in that category. Denver falls into a great situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Denver is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. 10* (132) Denver Broncos

12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Star Attraction. The Cardinals are still in position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC but they need to win out while the Panthers would have to lose their final two games. Still, Arizona has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye with a win here but Green Bay is not going to just roll over. The Packers have won three straight games to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North by a game and have clinched a playoff spot no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Packers still have a shot at a first round bye and they obviously have to win here to keep the hope alive going into Week 17. It's no surprise that the Cardinals have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but their passing defense has been at the middle of the pack. Last week, the Cardinals defense suffered a huge blow when they lost safety Tyrann Mathieu for the season to a torn ACL. That is a big edge for Green Bay which has to tale advantage of the Arizona secondary. The passing game is part of a solid situation for Green Bay as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Packers are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals have failed to cover their last four games against winning teams. 10* (125) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BROWNS for our NFL Game of the week. Kansas City is the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a row and then go on an eight-game winning streak and as impressive as that sounds, I am far from sold. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their last four games including getting out-totaled last week in Baltimore by 89 yards despite a 20-point win. Turnovers have been the difference and those are nearly impossible to handicap and the turnover differentials puts Kansas City into a negative situation as explained later. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss at Seattle last week but it was in a no win situation there as the Seahawks are starting to peak while the Browns were coming off three straight home games. The Chiefs have been double-digit home favorites twice this season and they failed to cover both times, losing one outright against the Bears. The turnover situation as mentioned is to play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (117) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the FALCONS for our Sunday Enforcer. As the public loads up on Carolina, we will gladly go against the Panthers again this week as they are in a situation that playing against undefeated teams this late in the season has performed exceptional. We played against Carolina last week and we were rewarded by a Giants massive comeback and late cover which was the second straight road game the Panthers won by just a field goal. While a win clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the game is just as big for the Falcons, if not bigger. While the chances are slim, Atlanta is still alive for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC but it does need help along the way. The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a win last week against Jacksonville. Four of those losses came by four points or fewer so the streak was arguably skewed. The good news is that this is an early game and the team they are chasing, the Vikings, do not play until Sunday night. This is a big revenge game as well for Atlanta which got hammered at Carolina just two weeks ago 38-0. Teams that are undefeated after 13 or more games have covered just once in 13 games going back close to 40 year. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games while the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (110) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Do the Patriots really deserve to be favored here? Records will say yes as will the public backing but the fact of the matter is that the Jets are arguably just as good as New England at this stage of the season. New York has won four straight games to move up in the playoff standings and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by close to 50 ypg. The Patriots meanwhile are outgaining opponents by 67.6 ypg which is not far off from the Jets. New England is a win away from clinching the top spot in the AFC which is surely a big deal but the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot as they are currently on the outside looking in. That is a tough pill to swallow considering the Jets have won four straight games but slipped from the AFC's sixth seed down to its seventh on account of Pittsburgh's triumph over Denver, which gave the Steelers a tie-breaking superior record against common opponents. New England has a negative situation on its side as we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. New England is 0-6 ATS in it last six games after allowing 16 points or fewer in its last game while the Jets have covered four of their last five games against winning teams. 10* (122) New York Jets

This is a play on the RAVENS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are surging as they have overtaken the Jets in the AFC Wild Card race thanks to a win over Denver last week. Pittsburgh has now won three straight games and the offense continues to pile up the points as it has scored 30 or more points in six straight games, five of which resulted in victories. But with that comes a price to pay as the Steelers are now massive road favorites over their biggest rival and it is definitely an overadjustment. Baltimore has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and are banged up all over the place but if there is one game it wants to win, this is certainly the one. This is the Ravens Super Bowl and they would like nothing more than to squash the Steelers playoff hopes. Despite losses in four of six games, the Ravens have won the yardage battle four times including in three of those losses and they have a shot to win the stats again this week. With nothing to lose, the Ravens should take plenty of shots deep with Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens regardless of who is playing quarterback. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Baltimore Ravens

We waited on this game for a few reasons, the most important being waiting for a line move but unfortunately that did not come. However, that actually bodes well in this case as while we are not seeing a reverse line move, we are seeing no line movement despite the Redskins getting pounded the public. This is an elimination game for Philadelphia as a loss means it is done while a win means that it is back into a first place tie in the NFC East and then control its own destiny. If the Redskins lose Saturday, they can still make the playoffs by beating the Cowboys next week at AT&T Stadium but would need the Eagles to lose to the Giants as well. The Redskins have won two straight games, the first time all season they have won consecutive games and one of those came at home where they finished 6-2 but are just 1-5 on the highway. The Eagles home field edge has not been great this season for sure but they fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in a game involving two teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 49-28 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game while Philadelphia is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 35 points or more last game. 10* (104) Philadelphia Eagles

Indiana is playing its first bowl game since 2007 and searching for its first bowl win since the 1991 Copper Bowl. If that isn't a motivator, I don't know what is. The Hoosiers finished just 6-6 on the season but they played a lot better than the record shows. They opened the season 4-0 and while the only good win was against Western Kentucky, it put them in place to get ot the postseason. Indiana went on to lose six straight games, five against elite teams, and that includes losses against Ohio St., Iowa and Michigan by 7, 8 and 7 points and those teams finished a combined 32-5. The Hoosiers needed two wins to close the season to become bowl eligible and they did just that with blowout wins over Maryland and Purdue, both on the road. While they were outgained overall on the season, they were not outgained as much as Duke was. The improbable loss against Miami took the wind out of the Blue Devils sails as that started a four-game losing streak and the final three losses were bad ones. They did defeat Wake Forest on the road to end the season but that was by just six points. Duke should have some success a poor Indiana defense but the key here is on the other side where Indiana averaged 490.8 ypg, good for 17th in the nation and best in the Big Ten by a substantial amount. Balance is the key as Indiana averaged over 200 ypg on the ground and over 285 ypg through the air. Duke finished 46th in total defense and 45th in scoring defense, pretty decent but not good enough to stop the Hoosiers offense. 10* (231) Indiana Hoosiers

Washington St. was picked by many to finish at or near the bottom of the Pac 12 North but the Cougars had an awesome season with an 8-4 record, their most wins since 2003. And it could have been better. They opened the season with an inexcusable loss against Portland St. of the FCS but bounced back strong. Losses against California and Stanford were by just six and two points respectively and some of the wins were quality as they defeated Oregon, Arizona, Arizona St. and UCLA. Washington St. did get hammered in the Apple Cup against Washington as it lost by 35 points but I expect that to be a huge motivator against Miami. The Hurricanes also finished 8-4 and they closed the season 4-1 after head coach Al Golden was fired. Three of those wins were by six points or less and all against teams not as good as Washington St. Miami was horrible on defense for most of the season and they will be in trouble here and you have to look at two games to prove that. The Hurricanes allowed 58 points to Clemson and 59 points to North Carolina, two of the best offenses they faced and Washington St. is ranked right up there with them. With a new coach coming in after this game, motivation could be in question for the Hurricanes but on the other side, Washington St. hasn't won a bowl game since defeating Texas in the Holiday Bowl in 2003 so motivation will not be an issue for the Cougars. 10* (228) Washington St. Cougars

Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd

Two teams out of playoff contention square off in a divisional matchup Thursday as San Diego heads to Oakland following an emotion win in what could have been its last game in the city of San Diego. Normally, that could spell a letdown but in this case, the Chargers have momentum in a game they want to win. Oakland took the first meeting in San Diego despite the Chargers winning the yardage battle and yet they are getting disadvantaged with this line. Divisional games that have two fairly equal teams playing tend to be a pickem game on a neutral field so the home team is typically a favorite by a field goal but the Raiders are well above that for no apparent reason. Despite a 4-10 record, the Chargers are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 20 ypg as they have suffered close losses and other losses where they have outgained their opponent. The Chargers have covered four straight road games while the Raiders have covered just once in their last five home games and we have a situation on our side where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (101) San Diego Chargers

This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a great setup for Georgia Southern as there are plenty of solid angles on their side. First off, this is the first ever bowl game for the Eagles which finished solo third in the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 8-0 last season but were denied a bowl game because it was their first year as a fulltime FBS member. That is good enough motivation alone. They are a rushing dog and a big one at that as Georgia Southern averages 355.6 ypg on 6.5 ypc, both of which are best in the country. Bowling Green also possesses a potent offense but from a passing standpoint as the Falcons are led by quarterback Matt Johnson who finished second in the country in passing yards. The Falcons will be without head coach Dino Babers who took the head coaching job at Syracuse and coming from a Baylor background, he will be missed. Granted, the Eagles are also working with an interim coach as Willie Fritz moved on to take over the coaching job at Tulane but the impact should not be as big in this offense. Georgia Southern got clobbered in its last game against Georgia St. so it will be out to end the season on a high note and going back, the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. 10* (219) Georgia Southern Eagles

This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies

Unfortunately for the Saints, their playoff hopes were closed yesterday with wins by the Vikings and Seahawks so while the motivation may not be as high as normal, playing at home keeps us on their side. New Orleans is 3-3 at home with one loss coming against undefeated Carolina by a field goal in its last home game and another coming against Tennessee in overtime. The Saints have thrived in these situations as they have covered six of their last eight Monday night games. The Lions had a three-game winning streak to end the month of November to slightly get back into the playoff picture but they have dropped their last two games, the first being the Hail Mary defeat to the Packers and that has completely deflated them. That certainly helps the New Orleans being officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Lions are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play against Monday night road teams with a winning percentage of .650 or worse that are coming off a loss as a favorite of a touchdown or more going up against teams coming off a win in non-divisional games. This situation is 17-3 ATS (85 percent) since 1990. And speaking of Monday nights, there is another fantastic situation on the New Orleans side as we play on favorites that are coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (332) New Orleans Saints

This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls

This game was moved to primetime with the flex schedule and that greatly benefits the Eagles. Left for dead after a blowout loss on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia has won two straight games and while far from dominating, this team needed a boost of confidence. The Eagles are tied with the Redskins and Giants in the NFC East so there is still plenty to lay for. Arizona has been playing well all season and is currently riding a seven-game winning streak. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the NFC West with a victory but it will not come easy here. They defeated the Eagles at home last season but were outgained by 121 yards as Philadelphia racked up 521 yards of offense. While there has been talk about how Sam Bradford does not fit well into this offense but it needs to be noted that the Eagles are 6-2 in games he's started and finished. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that blitzes the most in the league but he has a very quick release and has been sacked only once this season when seeing a blitz. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Cardinals are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (318) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the Denver Broncos for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Broncos are coming off their first loss with Brock Osweiler after winning his first three starts. The offense has been average at time but despite the loss last week, they outgained Oakland by 184 total yards as the offense generated 310 yards but the defense has been the story which has been the case all season. Denver allowed just 126 yards last week and for the season, the Broncos are allowing an average of 272.5 ypg, by far the best in the league while allowing 17.3 ppg, also tops in the NFL. The Steelers are allowing nearly 100 yards more per game even though the point total has been solid. Overall, these teams are relatively equal which makes this spread too high with a lot of that due to the fact of Pittsburgh defeating Cincinnati last week by 13 points but was outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, the Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while the Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (327) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the Atlanta Falcons for our NFL Game of the Year. It has been quite the tumble for Atlanta which has lost six straight games after a 5-1 start. Obviously last week was the worst of the bunch as they fell 38-0 to Carolina, the best team in the NFL and prior to that, four of the previous five losses were by four points or less. Losing is losing and there should be no excuses but at 6-7, the Falcons are still not out of the playoff picture although it is bleak which makes this a must win game. Jacksonville has been favored in each of its last four true home games (not counting Buffalo in London) and it split those. The Jaguars destroyed the Colts last week but they were cooked after Matt Hasselbeck went down. They are now just a game out of the AFC South so this is a big game for them as well. This, this is not a favorable spot and they are overvalued. Atlanta has dropped nine straight games against the number which makes this a huge contrarian value play. Atlanta falls into a simple yet phenomenal situation where we play on road teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games coming off a road loss by 21 or more points while Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against NFC opponents. 10* (307) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the New York Giants for our Sunday Enforcer. We played against Carolina two games ago as it failed to cover but snuck out a win at New Orleans. The Panthers bounced back last week to get back to dominating as they defeated Atlanta 38-0 in a game that was over before it started. They face another road test this week against the Giants which are fighting for a divisional title following a win over Miami on Monday night. We won with the Giants then and this is a much better team than the record shows. As mentioned last week, close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 11-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. That tells a lot. While Carolina is the best team in the NFL, the Giants cannot be discounted here as they are getting a ton of value as they are catching the same number of points that the Saints did at home and New York is the better team. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (320) New York Giants

We waited on this game hoping to get a line move our way but that likely will not happen until later in the day toward gametime. The Jets are a huge public consensus play this week and while the line has moved slightly, it has not moved as much as expected and that is actually working in our favor as New York will get loaded up even more. The Jets are fighting for a playoff position at 8-5 following three straight victories but now comes in as a road favorite for the fourth consecutive time. Two of those games resulted in losses while the third should have been a loss against the Giants. The first road win over the Colts was solid but they won the yardage battle by just one yard and the other road win was a win in London over the Dolphins. Despite a 4-9 record, Dallas is getting outgained by just nine ypg on the season and a few bounces its way, the record could be better. The Cowboys blew a big lead against Atlanta early in the season, lost two games in overtime while losing three other games by a single possession. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 9 points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record while the Cowboys are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after a loss by 14 or more points. 10* (304) Dallas Cowboys

I have brought up motivation before and will do so again and that is a factor in this game a well. Georgia St. is a pretty amazing story this season as after going 1-23 the last two seasons, its first two as a full FBS member, and being picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference, the Panthers won their last four games to make it to their first ever bowl game. The turnaround from the start of the season to the end of the season was one of the best in the nation and it can be attributed to the offense led by quarterback Nick Arbuckle who is less than 100 yards away from breaking the all time SBC record for total offense. San Jose St. has no business being here as it defeated only four FBS teams this season and three of those teams finished a combined 9-28. This is the clear example of why there are too many bowl games and while the Spartans may be excited to have their season extended, this is not a good position for them to be in. Georgia St. falls into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (208) Georgia St. Panthers

For the first time in its history, the BYU football program is in the middle of a bowl week being led by an outgoing coach. It is a big positive that Bronco Mendenhall is sticking around for this game instead of heading right to Virginia. "I can't wait to play in the bowl game because of how hard we're going to fight for this guy," wide receiver Mitch Mathews told the media after the BYU athletic department accepted the bowl invitation. This is a huge rivalry that was unfortunately cut off a couple years ago and there will be plenty of motivation on both sides. The Cougars closed the season strong by winning seven of their last eight games with the lone loss coming against Missouri by just four points. Utah meanwhile moved up to No. 3 in the country but that was short lived as the Utes closed the season by going 3-3 while getting outgained in four of those. Utah has played a tougher schedule and is arguably the better team but the motivator here is winning this game for Mendenhall as this will be his 100th win as the BYU head coach. Additionally, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 75-36 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (203) BYU Cougars

Motivation plays a huge role in bowl games and Arizona will not have much here. Picked to contend in the Pac 12 South, the Wildcats were a major disappointment. After a 3-0 start, they were blown out at home against UCLA and that set the tone for the rest of the season. Arizona lost four of its last five games and it has not won a game in regulation since October 17th and that was by just a touchdown against Colorado. New Mexico on the other hand is extremely excited to be in this game as it is not only its first bowl game since 2007, it is a virtual home game since it is being played at its home stadium. The Lobos were a pleasant surprise for sure and while the numbers aren't great, the one thing they do well which is important is run the ball exceptionally well, averaging 249.2 ypg on 5.3 ypc. Arizona has had trouble stopping the run this season which makes the Lobos a "rushing dog" in a bowl game which is a huge advantage. If this game were being played in September, Arizona would likely roll but the scenario is completely different here. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos

We have seen some pretty dull Thursday night games the last couple months as of the last eight games, seven have stayed below the total. The only one that went over the number was the Green Bay/Detroit game because of that Hail Mary which we were certainly fortunate to cash. While Tampa Bay and St. Louis do not scream offense when you think about them, the matchup on both sides should provide the offenses a boost. A key is actually the running game on each side as Todd Gurley is coming off a monster game and Doug Martin is having a great bounce back season. The Rams average 4.9 ypc while the Buccaneers average 4.8 ypg and those rushing attacks will open up the passing game. Last week, the Saints defense held the Buccaneers to 17 points and 291 yards, both the lowest against the Saints all season so that is a good indicator of a bounceback. In what may seen even more of getting another low scoring game here is the fact that Tampa Bay has gone under the total in three straight games while St. Louis has gone under the total in four straight games. Those are keeping the number down however. We have a great situation for the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 135-83 (61.9 percent) since 1983. 10* Over (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(302) St. Louis Rams

With Philadelphia and Washington both winning Sunday, the Giants can ill-afford a loss to fall a game back and with a brutal upcoming schedule, this has become a must win contest. New York has dropped three straight games by a combined 10 points and the close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 10-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. Miami is coming off an ugly win against Baltimore and while it has gone 4-4 over its last eight games, it has been outgained in six straight games by an average of 124.5 ypg. The Dolphins are just 2-3 at home so the home field edge is very small and their 0-2 ATS record as home underdogs and their 1-7 ATS record in their last eight home games overall show what little fight there is. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and they fall into an excellent situation as we play on road teams in the second half of the season that possess a losing record where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost three out of their last four games. This situation is 105-62 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (133) New York Giants

Not that long ago, the Patriots were on track to make another run at an undefeated season but injuries started taking their toll and now at 10-2, New England is in trouble by many. This team is just fine despite two straight losses and honestly, the Patriots could still be 12-0. They lost in overtime on a pretty bad call against the Broncos and then last week they outgained the Eagles by 179 total yards and lost because of two special teams touchdowns and a pick six. New England has not lost three straight games since 2002 as it is a perfect 4-0 since then following consecutive losses. Houston is making a run at the AFC South as it is tied with the Colts at 6-6 as it ran off a four-game winning streak prior to losing in Buffalo last week. The Texans had solid wins over Cincinnati and New York but they are not going to be sneaking up on anyone, especially a team with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that have lost two straight games. Injuries have no doubt hurt New England on offense but last week actually helped them going forward and now with two weeks of preparation, this is where New England can be at its best. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (125) New England Patriots

This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders lost a tough one last week but it was clearly their own fault. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. They outgained the Chiefs by 129 total yards and it was the second straight game where they won the yardage battle by a big margin. Oakland is now 5-7 and the playoffs are looking dim but there will be no quit against their rival in this one. Denver is 3-0 with Brock Osweiler under center and he is doing just enough to win as he has tallied 17 points twice while getting a fortunate break against the Patriots that led to 13 late points so it could have been another 17 points scored. The Broncos do look better as they are more balanced but the fact of the matter is that they are averaging just over 22 ppg and are being asked to lay an overpriced number. Part of the reason is that Oakland hasn't covered in this series since September, 2011 which is a span of nine games. That changes this week as the Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on ST. LOUIS for our NFL Game of the Week. Here we have two teams with the same record but it is the road team that is the favorite and that should not be the case. Granted, the recent results differ but this is an awful situation for Detroit. The Lions won their third straight game with a rout over Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day and it should have been four wins if not for a Green Bay successful Hail Mary last Thursday night. Coming off a loss like that is tough to bounce back from and Detroit was actually thinking a 9-7 record could be a possibility to make the playoffs but that is now shot. Lastly, teams coming off three straight home games and are then favored on the road have been horrible. St. Louis has lost five straight but two of those were by three points, both on the road. And the last two losses have come against Cincinnati and Arizona which are a combined 20-4. The Rams are 3-3 at home and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Not many teams have been worse this time of year as the Lions are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December. The Rams fall into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. The Rams snap their skid this week. 10* (116) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. This line is a complete overreaction to what was witnessed last week on the scoreboard. The Chiefs easily defeated the Raiders 34-20 but looking deeper, it was far from easy. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. Kansas City was outgained by 129 yards and on the season, the Chiefs are getting outgained by four ypg. San Diego lost by 14 points against Denver but was outgained by just 21 yards and despite being 3-9, the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 10 yards per game. They have been much more efficient on the road as has quarterback Philip Rivers as in his previous three road games, Rivers has thrown for 1,104 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. So because of the scores from last week, the Chiefs are now a double-digit favorite over San Diego. In addition to that, Kansas City has won and covered six straight games which is also adding to the overadjustment. The Chargers will be out for revenge from the first loss this season and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 and playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) San Diego Chargers

We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last four, the Cadets have covered three of those and we have been on them in each of those. While this version of Army may seem worse, the line is taking that into consideration and it is getting the most points in this series since getting the same point spread way back in 2003. The Cadets cannot match their four wins from last season and that is a reason this line is much bigger than last season but after being -72 ypg in differential last season, they are -44 ypg in differential this season. Additionally, their ppg differential has improved by 2 ppg, down from 8 ppg to 6 ppg. It has been a frustrating season for Army as it has lost only one game by more than 20 points while six of nine losses have been by seven points or less. Navy is having a great season and is certainly one of the better teams in recent years but this team has been good for a long time now as it has had eight or more wins every season but one since 2003-04. Navy split its games against the spread this season when favored by 20 or more points while Army covered its only game of +20 or more as it lost to Penn St. by just six points as a 25-point dog. Army is now 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at that price range. 10* (103) Army Cadets

This is a big number to lay down but Arizona has been incredible at home and I expect that to continue. The Cardinals are coming off a stretch of four road games in a five-game stretch and they won them all including a solid win at Seattle to make it six straight wins overall. While the road has been very kind to Minnesota, it does not include a quality win. Atlanta is in a swoon, Oakland is improved but average, and Chicago and Detroit are both poor. Two games separate these teams but the yardage differentials tell a different story. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season by 26.8 ypg while Arizona is outgaining opponents by 102.7 ypg and that is a significant variance between the two teams. The Vikings defense was exposed last week against Seattle and that should continue here as the unit is extremely banged up. They are especially thinned out at safety, where Harrison Smith (questionable), Andrew Sendejo (questionable) and Antone Exum (placed on IR) are ailing. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer ranks first in the NFC in multiple stat categories, including passing yards (3,693), passing TDs (29) and passer rating (106.3). Head coach Bruce Arians is 18-7 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. 10* (102) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on NEW ORLEANS for our NFL Game of the Month. With New England's loss last weekend, Carolina is now the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL and that comes with a price as we can see here. Being favored on the road is one thing but being favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival is another thing. New Orleans has dropped three straight games and has fallen out of the playoff picture but a win here to ruin the Panthers perfect season would be huge for them. In addition to the straight up runs, Carolina has covered four straight games while New Orleans has failed to cover those last three and that is also playing into this number. Going back, the Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall against winning teams. New Orleans falls into a fantastic situation as well as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (362) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. Kansas City was left for dead after a 15 start but the Chiefs have run off five straight wins to get right back in the playoff hunt. Last week, they took out a very improved Buffalo team but the weather played a role as the Bills actually won the yardage battle. Kansas City has also covered the last five games. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a road win last week at Tennessee thanks to a phantom penalty but the Raiders deserved to win as they outgained the Titans by 158 total yards. That snapped a three-game slide and Oakland is still alive in the Wild Card race. Four of their losses have come by six points or less so things could actually be even better for one of the most improved teams in the league. Kansas City is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season and it falls into a negative situation. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (374) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for our Sunday Star Attraction. San Diego picked up a much needed victory last week at Jacksonville and while it won't get any style points for it, it was necessary for the psyche of the team. The Chargers had lost six straight games prior to that and now they will be out for their first winning streak of the season against a hated divisional rival. They have dropped four straight at home and while the San Diego home field edge is pretty minute, they are catching Denver at the perfect time. The Broncos are coming off a big come-from-behind victory against New England last week in overtime so this is the perfect opportunity for a letdown even though this is a divisional game. Those types of wins are tough to recover from and that will be the case again here. The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Denver falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (372) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on MIAMI for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. It has been a very inconsistent season for Miami as it has dropped four of its last five games following a two-game winning streak to start the tenure of head coach Dan Carpenter. All four of the recent losses came against teams still alive for the playoffs so it has been a very difficult stretch of games. Baltimore has flat out been a mess all season even though it is coming off a win last week against Cleveland on a walk-off blocked field goal for a touchdown. That will be a tough game to recover from knowing there is no hope for the playoffs and playing without their top quarterback, top running back and top wide receiver. The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (360) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The term "must win game" is thrown around a lot this time of year and Atlanta finds itself directly in that situation. The Falcons have lost four straight and five of their last six games after a 5-0 start and a lot of the issues have been simply bad luck. Three of the losses have been by three points or less including a home overtime loss to these Buccaneers so they would like nothing more than to return the favor. Tampa Bay lost at Indianapolis last week to fall to 5-6 and while this is considered a must win for them as well, getting to the playoffs with six losses already likely will not happen. Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses while Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Additionally, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons break their skid here. 10* (367) Atlanta Falcons

This line came out shorter than expected as Clemson is the No. 1 teams in the country while North Carolina has not played an overly difficult schedule. The Tar Heels however have an excellent team and riding an 11-game winning streak shows they are doing something right. The offense can match Clemson point for point and while the Tigers come in with the much more heralded defense, North Carolina's stop unit has steadily improved yardage wise and that credit can be given to defensive coordinator Gene Chizik who will no doubt have a solid gameplan here. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. While it has been said that North Carolina has not defeated anyone of note, the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their last 122 games following a loss against the spread. An outright win is not out of the question here. 10* (329) North Carolina Tar Heels