Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Kansas seems to be up to its old tricks as it is off to a 1-3 start but it has played better than what the record shows. The Jayhawks have outgained two of four opponents and despite losing by 22 points against West Virginia last week, they were only outgained by 71 total yards as the offense has been able to generate movement. The problem has been the defense and turnover margin as they are ranked No. 119 in the letter category and because of that, it hurts the defense putting the unit in shorts fields and bad situations. Last season, Kansas averaged more than 20 ppg on offense for the first time since 2011 and it is averaging 32.2 ppg which is No. 57 in the nation. As far as output, the Jayhawks are averaging 480.5 ypg which is No. 23 as the turnover have cut the points production down. Texas Tech is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Oklahoma St. as it lost by a touchdown with the Cowboys scoring the game winner with 1:12 left in the game. The Red Raiders were outgained by 213 yards so it was not really as close as they benefitted from short and missed field goals from the Cowboys as well as returning an interception 95 yards for a touchdown. Coming off that tough loss and getting up for Kansas is not easy especially with a revenge game at West Virginia on deck for next week. This is a big number for an average Texas Tech team to cover on the road as the improved Kansas offense will keep them in this game with always a potential to strike against a Red Raiders defense that is No. 111 in total defense. Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog while Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS in its last three games as a road favorite. 10* (374) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS for our Saturday Star Attraction. We played against Penn St. last week and while the final score did not go our way, it was a game the Hoosiers held their own but were undone by fumbles and it did not help the Nittany Lions returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Penn St. offense could not do much as it managed only 370 total yards and it outgained the Hoosiers by only 18 total yards. That was clearly a misleading final score and as mentioned numerous times before, it adds value because linesmakers do not set numbers based on boxscores. While the Nittany Lions did dominate the stats in their previous two games against Iowa and Georgia St., the situation they fall into this week is worse than last week. Coming off a pair of Big Ten wins and having Michigan and Ohio St. on deck following their bye week, this is not a good spot to win big on the road. Northwestern has been an inconsistent team to start the season as it rolled over Nevada and Bowling Green but was dominated by Duke and did not look good last week against Wisconsin despite what turned out to be just a nine-point loss. It is a surprise considering the Wildcats brought back 16 starters from a team that finished 6-3 over their last nine games last season that included close losses against Ohio St. and Wisconsin. This is a team than can turn the corner and make a run as it is the second most experienced team in the Big Ten and the No. 17 most experienced team in the country. Penn St. is playing with double-revenge but we do not consider road revenge very strong plus an outright revenge win does not mean a an over two-touchdown cover. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our AAC Game of the Year. Tulane is back in action following a bye week which came after a solid home win over Army to even its record at 2-2. This is the beginning of a very important stretch for the Green Wave as four of the next six games are winnable and they should be favored in all of those before closing the season against Houston and SMU. These four games are big for bowl eligibility and while it is early thinking about that, the fact is Tulane is poised to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2013 and Willie Fritz has this team going the right way. Tulsa is 1-4 after suffering three straight losses and while those games were decided by 3, 3 and 10 points, it was outgained by 131, 160 and 167 total yards in those games. The lone victory this season came against 1-3 Louisiana which was at home. This is the third straight game that Tulsa has faced a run-heavy, option type of offense and while that may seem like an advantage now in the third game, it is not. The Golden Hurricane have been gashed by New Mexico and Navy for 338 and 421 rushing yards and those games were at home so the crowd did not help the stop unit. Even more important heading into this game, the defense was on the field for 42:41 and 39:38 minutes and that is a lot of time so fatigue has been an issue and can be going forward. We know revenge can play factors in motivation and Tulane will be highly motivated here as the 11 seniors on the roster, seven of which are defensive starters, will be out to avenge three straight losses in their tenure here and they certainly have not forgotten the 50-27 loss from last season. Going back, the Green Wave are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (362) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our Friday Night Primetime play. Connecticut returns home following its third consecutive loss, a 21-point setback at SMU. The game was much closer than that however as the Huskies tied the game at 28 early in the fourth quarter but the Mustangs scored three straight touchdowns with the final two needing just 74 total yards because of a bad punt and a turnover on downs by Connecticut. They should have beaten East Carolina the prior week and lost to a very improved Virginia team before that. Memphis dropped its first game of the season as it was dominated at UCF and despite going 3-1 to start the season, the Tigers have been outgained by all three FBS teams. This is a very strong team offensively but it struggled against the Knights as they scored just 13 points and has only 396 yards and while the test will not be as challenging this week, a team that is so bad on defense should not be asked to cover two touchdowns on the road. The Connecticut passing offense has been a liability for years as it has averaged over 200 ypg only three times in the last nine years but that is not the case this season. The Huskies are averaging 329.8 ypg and last season, Connecticut passed for 300 yards or more only once. Returning senior quarterback has been has led the way with two straight 400-yard games while throwing six touchdowns and just one pick. This is not a good thing for Memphis as its passing defense has been obliterated this season, allowing an average of 321.3 ypg which in No. 126 in the country while allowing 13 passing touchdowns. The Tigers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass while under Randy Edsall head coach, the Huskies are 15-6 ATS as a home underdog. 10* (308) Connecticut Huskies

This is considered a must win game for the Patriots which are coming off their second loss of the season and could feasibly be sitting 1-3 right now if not for a late comeback against the Texans. While still considered one of the best teams in the NFL, New England is going to be fine once we get into the latter part of the season but right now, this team cannot be trusted laying points on the road with the current state of its defense. Tom Brady has been a master throughout his career when coming off a loss in a game he should not have lost as he has won 16 of 19 games following a loss as a favorite but he has never had a defense behind him like this one. New England has allowed all four quarterbacks it has faced to throw for 300 yards and overall, the Patriots are No. 32 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. To make matters worse, two of their top players, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Dont'a Hightower are banged up with leg injuries and are far from 100 percent. Jameis Winston is off to a solid start and can succeed as well but the Buccaneers are not looking to get into a shootout although with his receiver weapons of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, a shootout would not be a disadvantage. They are getting Doug Martin back tonight which is good for ball control and balance and the aim is to keep the Patriots offense off the field as much as possible. The Tampa Bay defense will be playing a big role in this outcome and while its topline numbers are not very good, the Buccaneers are fourth in the NFL allowing 18.5 yppt. Despite the porous defense, the Patriots are the big consensus once again and the line has gone up because of it. Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 350 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (304) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our Thursday Enforcer. This is a statement game for the Wolfpack as they are a team that is flying under the radar and it not getting the respect they deserve. NC State is 4-1 to start the season and it is riding a four-game winning streak following an opening loss against South Carolina. They lost at home by seven points in a game that they dominated. The Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. Since then, they have impressive wins over Florida St. and Marshall while taking out a sneaky good Syracuse team last week. Louisville is also 4-1 with its lone defeat coming against Clemson but the wins are not overly impressive. They defeated Purdue by just a touchdown, they took out a North Carolina team that is bad this season and the other two wins came against 1-4 Kent St. and 1-4 Murray St. of the FCS. Lamar Jackson is clearly one of the best players in the country and while the Cardinals are ranked No. 4 in total offense, they will be without some key pieces including wide receiver Jaylen Smith and running back Jeremy Smith. This is a revenge game for the Wolfpack that lost by 41 points at Louisville last season but that loss came right after their heartbreaking overtime loss against Clemson. This is a huge home game as this marks the first time two ranked teams will meet at Carter-Finley Stadium since 2000 so the home field edge on Thursday is big and will factor into the final outcome. 10* (306) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. The Chiefs were up to it again last week as they won a game despite losing the yardage battle. They took advantage of three Philip Rivers interceptions to jump ahead early and up by just a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, they scored the final touchdown on a 69-yard Kareem Hunt run. This was the second time Kansas City has been outgained this season after getting outgained the majority of the time last season which shows it takes advantage of opportunities when handed out. People are calling this team the best in the NFL right now but it is hard to make that claim when the Chiefs are ranked No. 11 in the NFL in yardage differential. The Redskins won their second straight game last week and it was a dominating performance over the Raiders as they outgained Oakland by 344 total yards thanks to a defense that gave up only 128 total yards and seven first downs. Kirk Cousins was efficient on offense as he completed 25-30 passes for 365 yards and just as important, he completed passes to eight different receivers. Duplicating that performance this week will be tough to do but we do not need a duplication since Washington is getting a touchdown here which is a very overinflated line. The Chiefs have been somewhat vulnerable on defense but they have not paid a price to this point and this is a team that can hurt them as long as they avoid mistakes. The Redskins have not gotten this many points on the road since November of 2015 and even with lower numbers, they have been very lucrative going 10-2 ATS over their last 12 road games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (279) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Seattle has gotten off to a rough start. Losing at Green Bay and Tennessee while narrowly beating San Francisco at home. This is nothing new though as the Seahawks have started slow in the past only to recover and make it to the postseason and we can expect that again this year. For a team that has looked nothing like a playoff team, laying a big number such as this may seem illogical, the talent on Seattle is arguably the best in the NFL top to bottom. The Seahawks have covered nine of their last 13 games when laying double-digits. The Colts won their first game of the season last week against Cleveland but they nearly gave the game away after piling up a big lead. Indianapolis made a quarterback change after getting blown out in their season opener against the Rams and Jacoby Brissett has not been bad at all, putting up an 85.8 quarterback rating. His first two starts have come at home making this his first road start and it could not come at a tougher venue. In six previous career appears, he has been on the field for just three plays on the road, all this season at Los Angeles. The Colts have been outgained in all three games and on average, they have been outgained by 94 ypg which is the largest margin in the NFL. So, while two of the games have been close, Indianapolis is playing worse than what its 1-2 record is showing. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that has failed to cover a game this season and it gets a good opportunity to break that streak Sunday night. 10* (278) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Week. Tennessee is becoming a hot topic, going from Week One loser against the Raiders to a team on the rise ready to contend. We are not saying they are not going in that direction but the Titans are not to the point of laying points on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are coming off a blowout win over Jacksonville and followed that up with an impressive win last week against Seattle at home although they did their best to give that one away. This will be only the second time that Marcus Mariota has faced the Texans as he missed the season finale last year with an injury and the first meeting did not go well as he was just 13-29 with an interception. Houston is coming off a very admiral effort last week in New England as it nearly pulled off the upset but lost in the final seconds. While it was a tough loss, it is one that the Texans, namely Deshawn Watson, can build on going forward. He did throw two picks but also threw two touchdowns while surpassing 300 passing yards and ran for 41 yards so he is getting more comfortable. Houston returns home where it lost its only game but the offense has improved since then and this is a must victory or it will be sitting two games out of first place with a 0-2 divisional record. The defense was not great last week but not many are when facing the Patriots and last season, the Texans had the best home defense in the NFL, allowing just 300.1 ypg. This is a great spot they have thrived in as the Texans are Houston is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 divisional games off a pair of road games while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as divisional favorites against teams off a non-divisional game. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Underdogs were 12-4 against the number last week as bookies cleaned up but we will see more of a favorite/underdog split this week so taking some chalk is not a bad thing after a week like that even though we are more contrarian/underdog players. One of those laying points is New England which has put together a couple of duds at home despite pulling out the win last week. The Patriots offense was atrocious in Week One but it has looked much better the last two weeks, putting up 951 yards of total offense and while it faces a strong defense this week, it faced an equally strong defense last week and put up 36 points. This is an important game for New England as it will be working on a short week with a trip to Tampa Bay on Thursday so this one is big. Defensively, the Patriots have been horrific but that should not matter here. For the second week running, the Panthers offense will take on the league's worst ranked defense. Last week the Saints defense ranked 32nd in the NFL, but after a poor performance from Carolina, New Orleans moved up and New England slid down. The Panthers offense is in trouble. Cam Newton is clearly not healthy and is a shell of himself from two years ago. Tight end Greg Olsen is on injured reserve with a broken foot while wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is a question mark after he injured his surgically repaired knee in the loss to New Orleans. Newton is expected to play, but there is a sense of uncertainty surrounding his overall potential. Even with the ATS loss last week, New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite while the Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (254) New England Patriots

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons dodged a second bullet last week as they were a half-yard away from a loss while in Week One, they were a dropped Chicago pass from losing. They survived both and now they return home where they have been lights out over the last two seasons including an 11-point win over the Packers which was not as close as that final margin shows. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and it is right on pace for that again this season albeit after just one game. The Falcons fall into a great league-wide situation as we play on single-digit home favorites that are 3-0 on the season. This situation is 24-7-1 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1980. With a bye next week, the Falcons will be fully focused on Sunday. Buffalo is one of two teams, Kansas City being the other, that has covered all three games to open the season based on the closing line. The Bills defeated the Jets opening week but they did struggle at Carolina as they lost 9-3 and last week, they defeated Denver despite getting outgained by 94 yards. We were on Buffalo against the Broncos but we are fading in a big way this week as the situation is not good at all. The Bills have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road and we have already seen that variance this season. The Falcons passing defense has been suspect but Buffalo does not have the passing game to take advantage and cannot play catch-up when falling behind and forcing to pass the ball. The Bills have yet to be tested by a potent offense and they will not be able to match up here. 10* (268) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. It has not been the season that the Bruins or their fans hoped for but all is not lost and this is the statement game to get back on track. UCLA opened the season with that unbelievable comeback win over Texas A&M and then followed that up with a dominating performance against Hawaii. Then it was time to hit the road and things did not go well as the Bruins were upset at Memphis in a classic back and forth game and then lost by 24 points last week at Stanford. Mentioned numerous times is that while final scores are what counts, looking inside the game gives us a better understanding of what happened and UCLA won the yardage battle in both of those losses. The problem was seven turnovers and teams are not going to be successful when turning the ball over that much. Those instances work for us this week as we are getting line value because of the two losses. Colorado is off to a 3-1 start as it opened with three wins before losing at home against Washington last week by 27 points. The Buffaloes beat Colorado St. but were outgained by 50 yards as they took advantage of three turnovers, beat Northern Colorado of the FCS and beat Texas St., arguably the worst FBS team in the nation. Colorado had a breakthrough season a year ago with 10 wins which matched their win total from the previous three years combined but the Buffaloes lost a lot of talent and it showed last week against Washington and that was a revenge game from the Pac 12 Championship last season. This is the first true road game for the Buffaloes and they are heading no Los Angeles at the wrong time to face the Bruins. 10* (160) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the VIGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Saturday Star Attraction. We played against Clemson last week and as expected, the focus was not there coming off two big games and having this game looming. The Tigers swept-walked for three quarters before pulling away in the fourth quarter and while they will be up for the game this week, they are overinflated. Clemson opened as a six-point favorite but it has since jumped over that key number and has even moved over a touchdown in some spots and that is a line it should be laying at home and not on the road. Clemson is one of the best teams in the country but because of that, they get full efforts from every team each week and that will be the case here. Virginia Tech won double-digit games last season for the first time since 2011 and the Hokies are primed to become a perennial force once again. Justin Fuente is one of the top young coaches in the country and he is already making his mark. This is his biggest home game since coming to Virginia Tech and night games in Blacksburg have a special feel to them. He guided the Hokies into the ACC Championship Game last year, where his team came up just short against Clemson, 42-35. Clemson has won 11 straight road games but only two of those have come against ranked teams while four of those wins came by six points or less. The win over Louisville this season was impressive but the Hokies are a stronger team and are getting more points than the Cardinals did. The Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record and will use that confidence from the game last season to Clemson all it has. 10* (194) Virginia Tech Hokies

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly was feeling the heat after a one-point home loss against Georgia but his team has rallied the last two weeks with wins over Boston College and Michigan St. on the road. The win over the Eagles was a dominating performance but last week, the 20-point win over Michigan St. was very deceiving. The Spartans won the yardage battle 496-355 but mistakes did them in as they threw an interception on their first possession that was returned for a touchdown, fumbled in the Notre Dame endzone in the second quarter while two other possessions that got to the Fighting Irish 11-yard line and six-yard line resulted in no points. After a pair of road wins, teams can fall into letdown mode and that looks to be the case here with Notre Dame. Miami Ohio had one of the worst runs you will ever see as it went 5-41 from late 2012 to early 2016 but then something happened as the RedHawks won their final six games last season and lost by a point against Mississippi St. in its bowl game. They returned 17 starters this season and have gone from MAC bottom feeder to MAC contender. Miami is 2-2 though four games but could be 4-0. The RedHawks lost to Marshall despite winning the yardage battle by 162 yards as Marshall returned two kickoffs back for touchdowns and returned an interception for a score. They lost to Cincinnati on a pick-six with 1:07 remaining two weeks ago but responded with a conference win over Central Michigan last week. Going back to last season, five of their last seven losses have been by a possession and now they are catching three touchdowns in what is an overinflated number than can be attributed to the Notre Dame name. 10* (185) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS for our September Game of the Month. Both Iowa and Michigan St. both lost this past Saturday so we need to figure out which team has the better chance of recovering. Losses are losses but how teams lose can have a great impact on how they fare the following week and we think the Spartans have a significant advantage here. They lost against Notre Dame at home by 20 points but in no way does that score show what really happened. Michigan St. won the yardage battle 496-355 but mistakes did the Spartans in. They threw an interception on their first possession that was returned for a touchdown, fumbled in the Notre Dame endzone in the second quarter while two other possessions that got to the Fighting Irish 11-yard line and six-yard line resulted in no points. It was a disappointing loss to take but it is one that shows the team is better than the result and that helps with line value moving forward. Iowa meanwhile is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Penn St. as the Nittany Lions scored the game winning touchdown with no time left. That is a loss that will take time to recover from as the Hawkeyes obviously had their chances to pull off the upset. However, they were outgained by 306 total yards, lost the time of possession by a 2-1 margin and were at a 29-11 first down disadvantage. It was opposite type of game for Iowa than what Michigan St. went through so while the scores say one thing, looking inside the games say another. The Hawkeyes are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the Spartans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (146) Michigan St. Spartans

Penn St. improved to 4-0 with a win at Iowa last week on the final play of the game. The Nittany Lions dominated that game more than the final score shows as they outgained the Hawkeyes by over 300 total yards and while this typically can cause a line the following week to be off because of the narrow win, that is not the case here because of the public love for Penn St. While losses like the one Iowa suffered last week can be tough to recover from, wins like the Nittany Lions victory are very difficult to back up. This is a very difficult spot coming off a hard-fought road game with another road game on deck next week at Northwestern. We played on Indiana in its season opener and while it held its own against Ohio St. for a half, the Hoosiers ran out of gas on defense and the Buckeyes pulled away. Indiana has won both games since then including a very impressive 17-point win at Virginia, a team that looked very solid last Friday against BYU. The Hoosiers came out of their week off because of a cancelled game against FIU to destroy an overmatched Georgia Southern team as they scored two defensive touchdowns and a special teams touchdown as they played vanilla most of the game. With a bye week on deck, Indiana has no choice but to go all out and with an opponent like Penn St., motivation is not an issue to begin with. The Hoosiers lost at home against Penn St. last season by 14 points but Indiana led by three points with four minutes left but allowed 17 points over the last 3:58. Indiana won the yardage battle 454-409 but could not overcome five lost fumbles. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (151) Indiana Hoosiers

It has been a rough stretch for Tennessee as the hot seat is scorching under head coach Butch Davis. A win over Navy in the season opener in overtime was a solid victory as the Volunteers were outplayed most of the game but found a way to win. The game last week against now 0-5 Massachusetts is a concern to some but it can be chalked up to a lack of focus and while that is on the coaching staff, we will see the opposite this week. Tennessee was coming off that last-second Hail Mary loss at Florida the previous week so the spot against the Minutemen was one of the worst a team could be in especially with a huge conference game on deck. Tennessee is being written off by most but this team is still 3-1 and getting a touchdown at home is a steal. Georgia rolled over Mississippi St. last week but the Bulldogs were coming off a very emotional blowout win over LSU the previous week so Georgia had a solid edge there. That victory may be overblown and we are seeing some of that reflected in this line but the public will still be backing the Bulldogs. Georgia was getting 5.5 points at Notre Dame in its only other road game so the linesmakers are essentially saying Notre Dame is 12.5 points better than Tennessee and that is hardly the case. This is a revenge game for Georgia which lost on a Hail Mary last season but we do not promote road revenge as it can backfire if the situation is is not good and that is the case here. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win while the Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (180) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for our Saturday Star Attraction. You have to feel for the Maryland program. The Terrapins went through four quarterbacks last season because of injuries and they are already down to their fourth string quarterback this season as both Tyrell Pigrome and Kasim Hill have torn ACLs while Caleb Henderson has still not seen the field because of an ankle injury. Max Bortenschlager came in last week and looked lost against UCF and he will be getting the start this week. Having a week to prepare helps but this is not the ideal situation and it is unfortunate following that season opening performance against Texas. Maryland's running game, prolific through the first two games, managed just 42 yards on 37 carries against the Knights. The Terrapins were outgained by 231 yards and will be going into a tough environment this week. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 starts and after a shaky opener against Buffalo, the Gophers have turned it up a notch over the last two games in blowout victories. The opposition has been far from strong but this is a team on the rise following a surprising nine wins last season and the bringing in of head coach P.J. Fleck who fits well into the program. While the injury situation is not good for Maryland, it is much better for Minnesota as its top two running backs, Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks, are on track to return to action. The duo rushed for over 1,900 yards last season and has already combined for 435 yards this season. The Terrapins are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week. 10* (142) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS with our Friday Star Attraction. We have played on USC twice this season, once in a loss to Western Michigan and once to a win against Stanford. The Trojans looked like two different teams in those games and after watching them lose the following week as well against San Diego St. so that USC win is not as impressive. USC is coming off a 10-point win over California last week and that was not a very promising victory as the Trojans were outgained by 60 yards and were fortunate that the Golden Bears committed six turnovers. Now they take a huge step up in competition but are still overvalued with a lot of that based on name. Washington St. is also undefeated at 4-0 and it has been much more dominant in its victories. The schedule has been soft but that is not the fault of the Cougars and the fact they are winning games by big margins is more important than schedule strength. We knew coming into the season that they were going to be a very strong team with an extremely potent offense and a defense that has improved over each of the last four years with nine starters coming back this season. The Cougars won eight straight games at one point last season but lost their last three games and came into this season with a chip on their shoulder knowing they have what it takes to win the Pac 12 North. Washington St. has a huge scheduling advantage here as while both teams have to prepare on a short week, back-to-back road games for USC paired with the abbreviated schedule does not make this anymore ideal. The Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (112) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and have not looked good in doing so. They defeated Seattle in Week One and the Seahawks are clearly down right now, they lost in Atlanta in a game that was not as close as the final score showed and it took a last second touchdown in regulation last week against Cincinnati to eventually prevail in overtime. Green Bay could use a stress-free game to get some momentum going and this is the perfect spot and a much needed one with a game at Dallas next week. Under quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have dominated the Bears, winning 15 of 19 meetings while covering 14 of those games. One of those wins came where Rodgers was knocked out early in the game with a shoulder injury so after a subpar start to the season, he should bust out here. Of the Bears seven losses to Rodgers in Green Bay since 2008, five have come by double figures. We won with the Bears last week as the spot was perfect but now they hit the road once again where they lost their only game on the highway this season, a 29-7 loss in Tampa Bay. Chicago has lost nine straight road games and has covered just two of those with the average margin of defeat being 14.4 ppg in those nine games. The Bears defense has played well thus far, namely the rushing defense, but the passing defense has struggled which is not good in this matchup. On the other side, Chicago quarterback Mike Glennon made only five throws that traveled in the air at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage last week so look for the Packers to challenge the Bears to throw. The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. 10* (102) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our Thursday Enforcer. Texas hits the road following a bye week which came after a tough loss at USC in overtime. While it was just a three-point loss, the Trojans played down to the competition as opposed to the Longhorns playing up. Through the early stages of the season, USC is overrated so that loss to the Trojans is not as good as it looks on the scoreboard. Additionally, Texas was outgained by 112 total yards as one of its touchdowns was on an interception return and penalties hurt the Longhorns as well. Because of a 56-0 win over San Jose St., the No. 167 ranked team in FBS and FCS according to Sagarin, the overall numbers and ranking are skewed. Iowa St. is also coming off its bye week following a blowout victory over Akron. That win can be compared to the Texas win over San Jose St. but the Zips are ranked higher than San Jose St. and the 41-14 win came on the road. The Cyclones were coming off a devastating loss at home against rival Iowa in overtime in a game where they blew a few late leads including allowing the tying touchdown in regulation with just 1:09 remaining. It was a good bounceback win as Iowa St. could have come out very flat but it showed what the team is capable of. The Cyclones have not been relevant in a while and it is clear that head coach Matt Campbell has the program going in the right direction so night game on Thursday in front of a national TV audience is huge for this team. The Longhorns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (104) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Monday NFL Primetime play. After opening the season with a pair of road games resulting in a split, the Cardinals are back in Arizona for their home opener. They lost to Detroit in their season opener after blowing an early lead which coincided with the loss of David Johnson with a wrist injury. Arizona bounced back with a win at Indianapolis in overtime last week although it dominated the game more than that score indicates. Arizona was arguably the best non-playoff team in football last season as it went 7-8-1 with five of those losses coming by a possession and on the season, the Cardinals finished No. 9 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense and along with the Patriots, they were the only two teams that finished in the top ten in both categories. The Cowboys are coming off a poor effort last week in Denver so there will be plenty of motivation after getting called out internally and numerous time in the media. While motivation will play a part, it is hard to put Dallas in this spot of a road favorite. The Cowboys have not lost back-to-back regular season games since Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were drafted and that is playing a role in this number as well. While not all teams are structured like the Broncos, upcoming opponents like the Cardinals now have a basic blueprint to use against Dallas. The public is riding the Cowboys this week looking for a bounce back but the fact this is the first time since 2014 that Arizona is a home underdog makes this a must take. 10* (490) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Chargers are up to their old tricks. We had a play on San Diego Week One and it resulted in a push for most as it had a field goal blocked as time expired which resulted in a three-point loss. They then lost to Miami last week as a field goal was missed in the final seconds that would have won the game. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so going back to December of 2015, 14 of their last 16 losses have been within reach. While it is only Week Three, this is a must win for Los Angeles as it is already two games out of first place which is occupied all three other teams so being three games out after three games could be the end already. Kansas City is 2-0 and following its very impressive win over New England on opening night, the Chiefs followed up with a win against Philadelphia last week but it was a game they got away with. There were dropped passes, missed interceptions and other opportunities for the Eagles to pull out this win as they won the yardage battle by 62 total yards but lost on the scoreboards. This has been typical for the Chiefs which seems to get outgained two of every three games yet somehow manage to win two of those. Kansas City has won seven consecutive road games so putting them in the favorite role here was a must and even with that, the Chiefs are the biggest public consensus on the entire NFL card for the weekend. That makes this a take all the way. 10* (484) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver must be feeling pretty good about things following a last second victory over San Diego in its season opener and then the dismantling of the Cowboys last week. Now the Broncos go from the rare NFL situation of being home underdogs to road favorites and the spot could not be worse. After opening the season with two home games, Denver has to travel to the east coast for an early start and then heads back home next week to take on hated rival Oakland. The thought is that Denver has a significant home field advantage in December because of the bad weather but it has a bigger edge at home in September because of the altitude and opposing teams not fully conditioned early in the season. The Broncos have now gone 2-0 the last eight times they have opened the season with two straight home games. The Bills could not make it 2-0 as they went to Carolina last week and lost to the Panthers 9-3. The Panthers dominated the time of possession 38:53-21:07 despite running just 12 more plays so Buffalo never really had a chance to get anything going. While the offense struggles, the defense was solid which should carry over into this Sunday. They have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road. The Panthers defense held them in check and while the Broncos defense has been dominant, as said earlier, that was at home. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games after a win by 14 or more points. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

We played on the Bears in Week One in a fairly similar situation and we will back them again this week. Chicago nearly defeated Atlanta in that season opener but a dropped pass late in the game prevented a 1-0 start but it still managed the cover and now the Bears are catching a bigger number. They followed that tough game with a 22-point defeat at Tampa Bay last week as they missed out on several opportunities. Chicago was outgained by just one yard but a lot of its own yards came in garbage time and while that can be a red flag when looking at stats, the Bears got inside the redzone three times but managed just one touchdown. Now the Bears return home where they have been much more competitive, going 3-6 since the start of last season with four of those six losses coming by less than a touchdown. The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start but it is not a very impressive 2-0. They defeated the Browns by a field goal in their opener and caught a break last week when Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford was ruled out during warmups. Their defense has led the way as they have given up just 237 ypg which is third best in the NFL but the offense is a concern. While they have scored 47 points in two games, they are ranked No. 16 in total offense and they will be facing an underrated Bears front seven with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. They allowed 372 yards against Atlanta but 88 of those yards came on one play. Pittsburgh is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home and it is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games when favored by more than a touchdown. 10* (466) Chicago Bears

Overreactions to the two weeks of the season happen every year and it is no different this season as we are seeing numerous undefeated teams favored on the road because the public loves to ride these supposed great teams. The situation is a little different here as Carolina is playing at home but there is a huge overreaction to what it has done so far. The Panthers are 2-0 with very unimpressive wins over San Francisco and Buffalo. Many will argue that they were in fact impressive considering they allowed just six points total but those came against two offenses that are still searching for answers so those results are a bit skewed. They now face a very potent offense and one that could give them fits which has been the case for years. Offensively, Carolina is challenged as Cam Newton is still not close to 100 percent and not the same player he was two years ago and now he must carry on without tight end Greg Olsen who is out for an extended period of time after breaking his foot last week. The Saints defense is under scrutiny again but they have had a couple tough spot as Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford tore them apart while Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did the same last week. New Orleans had an awful schedule break last week as it was coming off a short week and had to face New England which was coming off a long week after playing the previous Thursday and coming off a loss only made it worse. This is as close to must win as it gets. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (473) New Orleans Saints

The Super Bowl hangover has not affected the Falcons which have won their first two games although they were fortunate to get out of Chicago with a win Week One. They looked great last week at home against the Packers but they were in such a good spot as it was their first home game since losing the Super Bowl and in a brand-new stadium on top of that. The energy was out of control but now they hit the road again as an overvalued team in a suspect role as a road favorite and coming off a Sunday night game against a non-divisional opponent causes a letdown. Clearly, this is a very good team but as pointed out many times over the years, great teams do not win every week and we must find the spots to figure that out. Detroit is also 2-0 following its Monday night win over the Giants. The Lions have been great defensively so far as they are allowing 289 ypg which is No. 7 in the league as they have shut down the Cardinals and Giants. We must decipher if this is a fluke or if the Lions are for real to prove their playoff appearance last season was not a fluke. Last season, Detroit had 26 sacks, tied for second-to-last in the league, forced only nine fumbles and made 10 interceptions, ranking in the bottom third in both categories and that is something that will turn around this season making the defense even stronger. The Lions showed balance on offense last week and they will need that here to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Going back, the Lions are 10-3 over their last 13 home games and going back, they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (478) Detroit Lions

We lost Wyoming last week as more credit has to be given to Oregon and turnaround that is going on in Eugene under head coach Willie Taggart. The Cowboys remain home for the third straight week as they open conference action in a bad mood. Expectations were huge coming into the season and those expectations should remain high as losing to Iowa and Oregon is nothing to get down about but a strong start in the MWC is vital. Quarterback Josh Allen was an early season Heisman sleeper but he has been horrible looking at the statistics but he is not totally at fault as the receivers cannot separate and have had numerous drops behind an offensive line that has not been able to protect so the hope is that gets shored up as the season progresses and it starts here as the Cowboys take a huge step down in competition. Hawaii is a team on the move but there are still questions surrounding the defense which could hurt this week. The Warriors allowed 35 points against Massachusetts in their season opener and the Minutemen have averaged only 18.7 ppg in their three games since then. UCLA put up 56 points against them two weeks ago and Wyoming is more than capable of naming the score as long as the receivers get their act together which will happen here. Hawaii is coming off a bye week and while that may seem like an edge because of the travel, this has not been the case in the past as the Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games coming off a bye so it has been the opposite effect. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* (364) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Saturday Star Attraction. With a quarter of the season in the books for most teams, we have a good read on what has transpired and how the markets are reacting. Coming into the season, we knew Penn St. was going to be a very solid team that would give Ohio St. and Michigan all they could handle in the Big Ten East and thus far, they have been one of the most dominant teams in college football. But it can be considered somewhat of an illusion based on who the Nittany Lions have played as they have played the No. 148 schedule in the nation according to the Sagarin Rankings and that is the easiest schedule of all Big Ten teams. The win over Pittsburgh may look good but Penn St. was outgained and now it takes to the road for the first time this season. Iowa is also 3-0 including an impressive home win over Wyoming and followed that up with a come-from-behind road win over rival Iowa St. The Hawkeyes could have lost focus after that but they dominated North Texas last week to get ready for conference action and they are catching an inflated number because of the Penn St. hype. The Nittany Lions went 2-0 last season as double-digit road favorites but those came against Purdue and Rutgers which went a combined 5-19 so laying double-digits against a team with a pulse is overaggressive. Iowa is 13-7-2 as a home dog under head coach Kirk Ferentz including 8-4 ATS when getting more than a touchdown. The Hawkeyes defeated No. 2 Michigan here last season and this was after losing at Penn St. by 27 points which was its worst loss since 2014 so revenge is very much in play. The Hawkeyes have played 12 games under the lights at Kinnick Stadium in the Ferentz era and they have gone 9-3. 10* (318) Iowa Hawkeyes

Texas St. comes into Week Four with a 1-2 record, having won its season opener against Houston Baptist by just nine points but losing both games against FBS teams. Last week will be hard to recover from. Texas St. jumped out to a 10-0 lead but managed only one field goal the rest of the way despite getting inside the Appalachian St. 25-yard line in three of its final four drives. The Bobcats missed a field goal and late in the fourth quarter, they recovered a fumble at their own one-yard line and drove 98 yards only to be stopped short at the Mountaineers one-yard line as time expired. The Bobcats are projected to be the worst team in the FBS and if not that, at least in the bottom five as there is not much here. Last season, Texas St. finished No. 126 in total offense including dead last in the nation in rushing offense and No. 117 in total defense. Texas-San Antonio is off to a 2-0 start and while the win over Baylor is not looking as good as it once did, it was still a strong win over a Power 5 team on the road. The Roadrunners are expected to contend in the C-USA West Division and rightfully so as they are the No. 2 most experienced team in the country and coming off the first bowl game in school history. They have a bye next week before conference action starts so there is no reason to think they will not go all out here before a big game against Southern Miss. UTSA has the best defense in the conference so Texas St., which has yet to score more than 20 points, will have a tough time getting points on the board here. 10* (389) UTSA Roadrunners

SMU is coming off a loss at TCU and it was an unfortunate loss as the Mustangs were looking to go into halftime with the lead but the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown on a Hail Mary and then ran off three straight late touchdowns including an interception return for a score. It was still a decent effort for SMU which is turning the corner under head coach Chad Morris. The Mustangs brought back 14 starters and are the No. 10 most experienced team in the country highlighted by an offense that brings back their quarterback, top three rushers and top five receivers. Even though they were not tested, the offense scored 58 and 54 points in its first two games and that offense should keep rolling here. Arkansas St. played well in its season opener at Nebraska, had a bye because of a cancellation and then blew out Arkansas-Pine Bluff last week which is not saying a lot. The Red Wolves finished in a tie for first in the Sun Belt Conference after winning it outright the year before and they are expected to contend again this season. But that is due to the conference being weak as they have only 10 starters back with the defense being bit the most. The offense is one dimensional as SMU's defense will be able to focus more on defending the pass because of Arkansas St.'s lack of a run game. Its leading rusher, junior Warren Wand, is averaging 65.5 ypg and behind him, no one has more than 37 rushing yards this season. Going back, the Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Look for a big bounce back performance this Saturday. 10* (378) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. There are already numerous coaches on the proverbial hot seat and you can now add Mike Riley to that list. After a narrow win over Arkansas St. to open the season, the Huskers got thumped at Oregon as the score was not indicative of how the game played out and last week, they lost at home against Northern Illinois. However, that game was not the same as the Oregon game. Nebraska dominated the time of possession 36:34-23:26 and outgained the Huskies 384-236 but could not recover from an early deficit. The Huskers threw interceptions on two of their first four possessions and both were returned for touchdowns. People are down on Nebraska and this is the perfect time to buy low. Rutgers is also 1-2 as it picked up its first win of the season last week against Morgan St. 65-0. The Scarlett Knights were favored by 41 points so that lopsided win came as no surprise and Morgan St. has been outscored 101-0 through three games. They played Washington tough in their season opener but followed that up with a dud against Eastern Michigan as they lost by a field goal as a 5.5-point chalk. Now Rutgers takes to the road for the first time this season and the highway has not been kind to this team. Rutgers has lost seven of its last eight road games dating back to 2015 and it has covered just two of its last nine games as a road underdog. The Scarlet Knights could not be going to Lincoln at a worse time and with Illinois on deck for Nebraska, there will be no lookahead. Based on the first three games, the Huskers have no choice but to put together their best effort of the young season. 10* (350) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great spot for Navy which is coming off a bye week after an average performance the previous week against Tulane. The Midshipmen won by two points but that was a tough matchup considering the Green Wave run a similar option style offense so there were a lot of familiarities on both sides so neither team could break away. They have a much better matchup this week as they open conference action in hopes of getting back to the AAC Championship after suffering a bad loss against Temple last season and this is their first conference home game since then. You know what you are getting with Navy week in and week out and that is a solid running game and disciplined football on both sides. Cincinnati is 2-1 following a win last week over Miami Ohio but it was a victory it never should have had. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 361-291 but scored just once through three quarters as it had two interceptions, a missed field goal and a turnover on downs. Miami kicked a field goal with 4:45 left in the game to take a 17-6 lead but Cincinnati went 75 yards on eight plays to pull within three points and then three plays later, picked off a Gus Ragland pass and returned it 14 yards for the winning score. While they lost by just 22 points at Michigan, the game should not have been that close as Cincinnati was outgained by 214 yards and in its season opener, Cincinnati was outgained by Austin Peay in its 26-14 win. Cincinnati won only four games last season with three of those wins coming against losing teams and another against UT-Martin of the FCS. The Bearcats have just 11 starters back this season as well as a new coach and new systems that they are still struggling with. 10* (358) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our Saturday Wiseguy Wipeout. Clemson opened its season against Kent St. and we played against the Tigers there with the thought being they would be far from focused coming off their National Championship season. While that was not the case, Kent St. did not help matters by not even showing up. Now we have a similar situation but one that is bookended during the season. Clemson is coming off a pair of high-profile wins over Auburn and Louisville and if that is not enough, the Tigers have a game at Virginia Tech on deck, a team they narrowly escaped from the ACC Championship last season. The Tigers are not in position to lose this game but this is a huge number to cover and it is creeping toward that Kent St. number and Boston College is much better than the Golden Flashes. It may not seem so since the Eagles are 1-2 with the win being a close victory at Northern Illinois but the fact they are 0-3 against the number is also adding value the pointspread this week. The Boston College defense is a perennial strength of this team but it has been shredded the last couple weeks which is a surprise. Offensively is where the challenge come here as the Clemson defense is arguably the best in the country right now but after allowing 27 points against Auburn and Louisville, it will be hard to sustain such a high level of play especially against a team it knows it should beat with ease. Clemson has stepped up its game going back to last season as it has flourished against the elite teams but they have failed to cover seven of their last nine games against teams with a losing record. This is a team that we can step in front of only when the situation is right and it is this Saturday. 10* (319) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS with our Friday Enforcer. We played against Boise St. last Thursday and we will go against the once again overvalued Broncos. We caught a fortunate back-door cover with New Mexico last week but at the same time, we caught a bad break early on when Lobos quarterback Lamar Jordan left the game after a late hit and they were down to their third starting quarterback for over a half. Boise St. was able to keep the New Mexico offense in check but most teams could when facing a third string quarterback and they actually were outgained. It was the offense that continued to struggle as the Broncos managed 44 points against Washington St. but 13 of those points came in overtime and prior to that, they put up just 24 points against Troy. Virginia hits the road for the first time but this is familiar territory for head coach Bronco Mendenhall from his time at BYU and he looks to be turning the Cavaliers program around. The Cavaliers have already matched their win total from last year and the defense has improved by 117 ypg. The rushing defense has been the weaker of the two defensive units but Boise St. has been struggling to run the ball as the Broncos are averaging only 3.78 ypc and last week, Boise State's top two running backs, Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin, combined for a paltry 49 yards (2.9 ypc) against New Mexico. The blue turf used to cause fits for visitors but the home field advantage is gone as the Broncos are 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. This streak will not last forever but the linesmakers are not doing them any favors by continuing to saddle them with double-digit lines. 10* (305) Virginia Cavaliers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Thursday Primetime Play. San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL that have not scored a touchdown through the first two weeks of the season while the Rams are averaging 33 ppg which is tied for third in the NFL. Because of this, it comes as no surprise the Rams are favored on the road and the public is eating it up. Los Angeles is the better team here but if the better team always won, there would be no point in playing the games. Even saying that the Rams are the better team may not be true because we have yet to see the real 49ers team and what they are capable of in a matchup like this. While they have yet to score a touchdown, they have played the Seahawks and Panthers, two of the strongest teams and defenses in the NFC and the schedule is ranked No. 8. And they were not dominant in those games as they have been outgained by just 70 and 64 total yards. Los Angeles meanwhile has played the No. 29 ranked schedule as it has faced the Colts, clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL without Andrew Luck, and the Redskins, who have their problems as well. They are now favored for a third straight game and in their first road game of the season no less. While the 49ers lack of offense has been the story, the defense has quietly played very well, allowing just 299.5 ypg and 17.5 ppg, both ranked in the top ten. This unit was expected to be much better this season and so far, it has made improvements and the jury is still out on the Rams offense. The 49ers hit the road for three straight games after this so they know this is a big game to not let the season get away from them early and we will see that effort tonight. 10* (302) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Thursday Star Attraction. We won with South Florida this past Friday as it put together its best game of the young season, amassing 680 yards of total offense while picking up 38 first downs on 98 plays from scrimmage. The Bulls won their first two games over San Jose St. and Stony Brook but it was not their best efforts although it can be argued they did not want to give too much away. They are laying a couple more points than they did against the Illini but that should not come into play here as there will be plenty of motivation to not only win but to win big. Temple is a shell of the team that rolled to consecutive 10-4 records the last two seasons as the Owls not only lost 12 starters including seven on one of the best defenses in the country but they also lost head coach Matt Rhule who left for the Baylor job. While he is not doing well at his new gig, he was responsible for putting the Temple program back on the map. The Owls have been outgained in all three games including losing the yardage battle by 49 yards against Villanova of the FCS and by 71 yards against winless UMass last week. Those games were won because of special teams and kicking but it is going to take more than that against the Bulls. Temple was outrushed by 337 yards in its season opener against Notre Dame and that is bad news against a South Florida team that is outrushing opponents by an average of close to 200 ypg. The Bulls motivation not only comes from this being the season opener and biggest game in the AAC East Division but also because of looking to avenge the 16-point loss at Temple last season which kept them out of the AAC Championship. 10* (304) South Florida Bulls

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our Monday Primetime play. There were four teams from Week One that are expected to be playoff contenders whose offenses looked in shambles, namely the offensive lines of each. The Bengals, Texans and Seahawks were the first three that played this week and none of those looked much better, scoring 9, 13 and 12 points respectively. The Giants are the fourth team of that group and we are expecting them to show the most improvement. They are coming off a dreadful game at Dallas where they managed just three points and 233 yards of offense. The rushing game was non-existent with only 35 yards and while Eli Manning had only 220 yards through the air, he was efficient by going 29-38. Odell Beckham Jr. has been upgraded to probable and his presence alone even though he is not at 100 percent is huge. The Lions defeated Arizona last week in a come-from-behind victory as they scored 26 unanswered points in the second half before the Cardinals tacked on a late garbage touchdown. Detroit was fortunate that Arizona lost David Johnson as the game took the turn once he left late in the third quarter. The Lions struggles in the run game have been well documented, and nothing that happened last week against the Cardinals offers any hope that is going to change. The Giants have one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL with a solid defensive line and a deep secondary and the Lions will not be repeating their offensive outburst this week. This line opened at 5 and has been brought down to the number we were expecting and hoping to get as the Giants rebound and shake off the offensive woes. 10* (290) New York Giants

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Atlanta escaped its season opener in Chicago as it dodged a fourth quarter bullet as the Bears were unable to get into the endzone late in the game after driving into the redzone. The Falcons head back to Atlanta for their home opener and first game here since their Super Bowl meltdown and it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday night. This is also the first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so it will be rocking. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and after putting up just 23 points in Chicago, this offense will be ready to score a bunch and the Packers know about that all too well. They lost twice here last season, once during the regular season 33-32 and then in the NFC Championship 44-21. This is a different Green Bay team this time around as the defense is healthy so that gives it an edge but Green Bay has never been as good on the road and is coming off a lackluster effort at home against Seattle last Sunday. The Seahawks offensive line showed why it is the weakness of the team so the nine points allowed is a bit skewed because of that. The one weakness in the Packers defense is the secondary and this is not the team it wants to face early in the season especially with Matt Ryan looking in mid-season form, going 21-30 for 321 yards last week. Many will be on the Packers in the double-revenge spot but road revenge is never an easy thing to accomplish and while the Falcons had the Super Bowl hangover last week, that will be gone this week. Any line under a field goal is ideal but even if this settles in at the three points, we are in great shape for an easy cover. 10* (288) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Wiseguy Wipeout. We played against the Broncos last week which resulted in a win or a push depending where and when it was played but we are backing them this week and not because they won last week. That was more of a play on San Diego which was coming off an injury plagued season and still lost numerous close games and that was the result again in Week One this season. Even though Denver has the disadvantage of playing a game after a Monday night late game, it remains home so any disadvantage is negated. Playing early season home games has been beneficial to Denver with success coming from that and a lot of that is based on the rest of the league not being able to keep up. The Broncos have gone 2-0 the last seven times they have opened the season with two straight home games and that can be attributed to conditioning in the high altitude of Denver while the opposition is not ready for the Mile-High air early in the season. Dallas is coming off an impressive home win over the Giants on Sunday night but some of that can be attributed to the Giants inept offense that has no offensive line and no running game which spells big trouble for Eli Manning. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue although that did not come into play against New York. At over 5,000 feet above sea level, that will come into play. The Cowboys were an unheard of 10-0 outside the NFC East last season but only four of those wins were against teams above .500. going back to last season, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record and have no business being a favorite in this spot. 10* (284) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Sunday Enforcer. Washington is coming off an unfortunate home loss against Eagles in its season opener as a two-point game late in the fourth quarter ended up being a comfortable win for Philadelphia after a late turnover was turned into a touchdown despite it being a questionable one that could have been reversed. The Redskins hurt their cause with four turnovers which included three lost fumbles and those can be considered unlucky breaks at the time. Now the Redskins must trek to the west coast in hopes of avoiding a 0-2 start and they catch a Rams team in the perfect spot. Los Angeles is coming off a blowout win over Indianapolis 46-9 but the game was not as one-sided as the score shows. The Rams returned two Scott Tolzien interceptions for touchdowns as he had a horrible game in his first start with the Colts. Los Angeles allowed single-digits after allowing 24.6 ppg last season, good for No. 23 in the league. There will be people hopping back on the Rams train overreacting to that victory but also knowing that head coach Sean McVay will be facing his former team where he was the offensive coordinator while linebackers coach Joe Barry will also be going against his former squad where he was the defensive coordinator. They will know the tendencies of their former players which can be considered an edge but current Washington coaches will know the tendencies of their former coaches so it can be considered a wash. The Redskins have a solid situation on their side as we play against teams coming off an opening game where they scored 40 or more points and playing a team off a loss. This situation is 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1980. 10* (281) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Week. We had Best Bets on both Tennessee and Jacksonville last Sunday but managed to hit just one of those as the Titans fell short at home against Oakland. Tennessee was outgained by just nine total yards as the issue was in the red zone. While Marcus Mariota still has never tossed a red zone interception, the Titans were just 1-3 as they had to settle for two short field goals. While they arguably face a stronger defense this week, their offensive line is going to fare a lot better than what the Texans did last week. The Jaguars defense looked like one of the best in the NFL against Houston as they registered 10 sacks while holding the Texans to only seven points and 203 total yards. Mariota was sacked only once last week and Tennessee allowed the seventh fewest sacks last season. The Titans ran the ball only 21 times last week and we should see more balance this week to take some of the pressure off Mariota who was still efficient against the Raiders despite being one of only eight starting quarterbacks not to throw a touchdown pass. The Titans will be out for revenge as well as they lost here by 21 points on Christmas Eve which knocked them out of the playoffs and also knocked Mariota out for the year. While Jacksonville is riding confidence after the big road win, it is in a tough spot as it has to travel to London next week to face Baltimore and teams have gone 10-21-1 in the 32 games prior to their games in London. Going back, the Jaguars are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (261) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore looked very impressive in a 20-0 win over Cincinnati last Sunday but it was more of a Bengals implosion than a Ravens domination. Cincinnati had five turnovers and while it can be argued the Baltimore defense had a lot to do in forcing those, most of those were on Andy Dalton. The Ravens offense is still a concern as Joe Flacco looked like a quarterback that got no substantial preseason snaps, which he did not, and this unit could struggle for a while. The Ravens did rush for 157 yards which was the third highest in Week One but that total came on 42 carries and their 3.7 ypc average was just middle of the pack. The Browns showed a lot of positives last week against the Steelers, especially on defense where they allowed 290 yards including a mere 35 yards on the ground which was tied for fewest in the league while the 2.1 ypc average was second best. There are still concerns on offense but DeShone Kizer looked pretty comfortable in his first start. The one big thing the Brown have going on offense is their offensive line which is definitely in the top part of the league with key additions to go along with future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. Cleveland could not run the ball which was a surprise but committing to Isaiah Crowell is a must after he averaged 4.8 ypc last season. It is safe to say Cleveland is a better all-around team than last season yet Baltimore is laying more points now than it was in the matchup here last season and Cleveland came into that game 0-9. This is the classic case of bettors backing Baltimore because of what they saw last week and we need to look toward the future and not rely heavily on the past. 10* (263) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our Saturday Star Attraction. South Carolina is the second highest public consensus home team on the entire Week Three board based on the fact that the Gamecocks are playing their home opener after a 2-0 start and laying a short number. Typically, this is a good spot for a team as they are brimming with confidence while also playing with triple revenge from three losses the last three years. While winning is great, how teams win also has a lot to do with that and South Carolina is fortunate to be in this undefeated spot. In their first game at NC State, the Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. Last week, they were outgained by 64 yards against Missouri but returned another kickoff for a touchdown and benefitted from a 3-0 turnover edge. So, despite sitting No. 63 in the country in scoring offense, they are just No. 114 in total offense. Kentucky is also 2-0 after a pair of lackluster wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky but those were two games the Wildcats were not exactly pumped up for. While they do face Florida next week, this is their SEC opener as well and they will be ready. Kentucky is coming off its first bowl game since 2010 and its 17 returning starters is tied for most in the conference so there are big expectations in Lexington this season. If for nothing else, this game would be a pickem on a neutral field so this line is inflated even though it may be considered short to some. When it is feasible that the underdog can win the game outright, that underdog is a take. 10* (111) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our Saturday enforcer. LSU is being called a sleeper team in the SEC by some but that mean the Tigers would have to win in Alabama at the start of November which will be a tough task. They are coming off an 8-4 season and after four straight double-digit win seasons, the Tigers have suffered three straight single-digit win seasons. We do not quite think that the Tigers are back to their elite status so they should once again fall into the latter group win total and that boasts well for the Bulldogs which have played the Tigers close each of the last three years with a win by five points and losses by two and three points. LSU has allowed just 10 points through two games but one of those came against Chattanooga of the FCS and the other against BYU which we have seen is offensively inept through its three games. Those are two games that it is hard to judge how good this team really is with this being the first challenge of the season. This is the first big challenge for Mississippi St. as well although it easily defeated a very good Louisiana Tech team last week while holding the Bulldogs to just 21 points after averaging at least 37 ppg on offense each of the last three years. Offensively, this is where the Bulldogs are supposed to improve from the last few years as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a duel-threat that is coming off a very strong 2016 season where he passed for 2,423 yards while leading the team in rushing with 1,495 yards, earning him Third Team All-SEC honors. Mississippi St. will not have an easy time with the always tough LSU defense but the Tigers return only five starters which is their fewest since 2013. Additionally, starting defensive end Rashard Lawrence will be out with an ankle injury. 10* (188) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

We played against Western Michigan in Week One against USC and clearly did not get the best effort from the Trojans which seemed to play uninspired with Stanford on deck. We also played against the Broncos last week and they brought nothing against Michigan St. as they managed only 195 yards of total offense as both touchdowns scored were on defense and special teams. While they were underdogs in those games. They were still overvalued based on the spectacular season from a year ago and now they go into the role of a heavy favorite. Granted, it is a big step down in class but Western Michigan lost so much from 2016 that it is going to be a while for this team to come together. The Broncos will be jacked for their home opener but they will not be sneaking up on anyone. We played against Idaho last week but that was more of a play on UNLV than a play against the Vandals with the thinking that the Rebels would bounce back after suffering that horrible home loss against Howard which they did in a big way. Idaho overachieved last season with a 9-4 record that included a blowout win over Colorado St. in its bowl game that was not as close as the final score indicated and this is still a solid team with a lot of senior experience. The Vandals have been one of the best road dogs over the last few years even when they were not winning many games as they are 14-3 ATS when getting points on the highway since 2014. Idaho was riding a six-game winning streak going into last week but caught the Rebels at the wrong time as any other time it results in a Vandals victory. 10* (181) Idaho Vandals

Oregon comes into the 2017 as a team that many are expected to bounce back from a horrific 2016 season but the problem is that the Ducks will not be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers. They rolled over Southern Utah in their season opener and looked like they were going to roll again last week against Nebraska but they allowed the Huskers to get back into the game after opening up a 42-14 halftime lead only to win by a touchdown. Now Oregon hits the road for the first time under new head coach Willie Taggart and even in the glory days a few years back, Oregon was not nearly as good on the road. That is not stopping the public however as Oregon is the third highest public consensus on the board despite the books excessively inflating the line. Wyoming struggled in its opening game at Iowa as it lost by 21 points but was outgained by just 30 total yards as the Cowboys were done in by mistakes including the now famous missed punt that led to a touchdown right before halftime. They bounced back with a solid win last week against Gardner Webb where they did not show much looking ahead to this week and they will have a nice home field edge this week hosting a team not used to playing over 7,000 feet above sea level. The Cowboys improved defense is tied for ninth in the country in scoring defense at 12.0 ppg and 12th in total defense at 229.0 ypg. This is a very dangerous team with Josh Allen at quarterback that brought back 14 starters from last season where it went 8-6 with four of those losses coming by three points. 10* (186) Wyoming Cowboys

Situational spots are extremely important in college football and how a team reacts when given those certain situations. Oklahoma is coming off a monster win at Ohio St. as it got revenge from a loss in 2016 and now hosts a Tulane team that has won only 11 games since 2014. The Sooners dominated the second half against the Buckeyes as they scored touchdown on four of five possessions not counting the final one where they were not looking to score. Not only does this spell a letdown spot but the Sooners have their Big XII opener next week on the road against Baylor and while the Bears have looks horrible, it is still a game to be looked forward to. Tulane rolled in its opener against Grambling which is not saying much but it held its own last week at Navy and nearly pulled off the upset, losing by just three points. We rode the Green Wave then and will do so again as this is a team on the rise under head coach Willie Fritz. They were outgained by only 24 ypg and outscored by just 3.6 ppg last season and while the Sooners are clearly the more talented team by a long shot, the line is taking that into consideration but it is not taking into consideration the bad spot. Tulane runs the option which is tough to prepare for and there is no chance Oklahoma was preparing for it ahead of time during Ohio St. week. The Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (163) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. While this is a huge rivalry that dates to 1915, it has not been much of a series lately with TCU winning 15 of the last 17 meetings including the last five. The last four games have been decided by at least 19 points but we should see a much close game this season with an improving Mustangs program taking the field. SMU won a total of three games in 2014 and 2015 but finished with five wins last season and have a legitimate shot at making it to a bowl game this season. The Mustangs bring back 14 starters and are the No. 10 most experienced team in the country highlighted by an offense that brings back their quarterback, top three rushers and top five receivers. Even though they have not been tested, the offense has scored 58 and 54 points through two games. This is impressive considering SMU averaged a mere 11.1 ppg in 2014. Defensively, there are still questions along the defensive line but the back seven is loaded. We won with TCU last week as it handled Arkansas which was a big revenge game from an overtime loss in 2016. The horned Frogs went just 6-7 last season but are looking to be a player in the Big XII but they are being asked to lay a big number coming off a big win and having to travel to Oklahoma St. next week for their conference opener. The amount of focus here will be in question as this is the classic sandwich spot and against a team that now knows it is on the rise. TCU has been overvalued for a while now as it has failed to cover nine straight home games while going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a win of 20 or more points. 10* (167) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our Saturday Wiseguy Wipeout. When you hear the statement, "teams are not as good as they looked last week and teams are not as bad as they looked last week", this game will come to mind although the public will not be buying the aforementioned statement. Duke is going to be a big public play this week if wagering on this game or it will be a pass as laying money on the Bears is not going to happen for a lot of people. The value in this game is arguably the best on the entire board but that is offset by what we have seen through two weeks although the latter does not affect us as I do not care what has transpired the first two weeks. Baylor was shocked at home against Liberty in its first game and followed that up with a loss against Texas-San Antonio last week which in reality is not a horrible loss as the Roadrunners are a very good team. The Bears can throw in the towel for the season or they can rally around each other and we can expect to see the latter tanks to head coach Matt Rhule as he is not going to lose this team three weeks into the season. Duke is 2-0 with an impressive win last week against Northwestern which was one of the biggest head-scratchers of the week. The first win came over North Carolina Central so we cannot get much from that. After a 4-8 season last year, we can expect a rebound season form the Blue Devils based on the simple theory of coming back to the mean but winning this game and winning this game by more than two touchdowns are two different things. Duke has been favored by two touchdowns over a Power Five Conference team only once since 1998 and that was against Kansas. Baylor is no Kansas. 10* (141) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Friday Enforcer. Friday features three games with teams favored by at least two touchdowns and a pass would typically be in order in all of those but we are going to eat some chalk in one of those based on early season results and life in general. South Florida is favored to win the AAC after going 11-2 last season including a 7-1 conference record but there are higher aspirations in Tampa this season. The Bulls are looking at a Group of Five bowl game and crashing the College Football Playoff is not out of the question. While they have won both games this season, they have not looked good in doing so as they spotted San Jose St. a 16-0 lead before finally coming to life and looked hardly like a CFP party crasher in an un-inspirational win over Stony Brook by 14 points as a 35-point favorite. Now there will be plenty of inspiration after the game last week against Connecticut was canceled because of Hurricane Irma and this will be a huge game being played in Tampa for the team and its fans. Illinois defeated Western Kentucky last week and while it was considered an upset based on the line, clearly the Hilltoppers are not what they used to be. The win can be considered unimpressive considering that the Illini managed only 20 points while winning the yardage battle by just 56 yards. In its first game, Illinois defeated Ball St. by a field goal despite getting outgained by 159 total yards. This is one of many fraudulent undefeated teams in the nation and the Illini now hit the road for the first time and head to a place they would rather not be going to at this particular time. While this is a homecoming of sorts for Illinois coach Lovie Smith, the Bulls will prove to be way too much on this night. 10* (108) South Florida Bulls

Being Week Two, we have our first bounce back situations in play this week but considering both Cincinnati and Houston are coming off embarrassing Week One efforts, the Thursday night game is not in play. The Bengals are in a great spot as hone teams coming off a shutout home loss have covered 70 percent of the time in the last 33 instances but there is no way we would recommend laying a number this big as the line has gone from 3.5 to -7 in some spots. We will be going a contrarian route instead. Scoring a combined seven points in their season openers, we are catching a total that is lower than anticipated and while the over is typically a public play, the under is the consensus here. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope tonight and rightfully so after awful efforts last Sunday. Andy Daulton has been shut out once in his career, back in 2014 against the Colts, and it was a disaster of a game for him with a 55.4 QB Rating. He bounced back with a solid game against the Ravens and the offense managed 27 points. Deshaun Watson took over for Tom Savage in the second half last week and he was average and he now gets the nod on a short week but we think he will be just fine as he showed flashes of what he can do during the preseason. These teams have played each of the last three regular seasons and all three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but all of those closing totals were 41 or higher. This adds to the contrarian angle as the under will be the recommendation from historians but we go against that as well. The Bengals have gone over the total in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game including a 10-4 over mark under Dalton. 10* Over (101) Houston Texans/(102) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Thursday Star Attraction. Boise St. heads back home following a disappointing loss at Washington St. last Saturday and regrouping will be difficult. The Broncos returned a fumble 55 yards for a touchdown with 10:53 remaining in the game to take a 31-10 lead only to see the Cougars score three touchdowns including an interception return and the tying score set up by muffed punt. Boise St. eventually lost in triple overtime to even its record at 1-1 and the dominant Broncos days look to be numbered. There are questions all over the field as Boise St. has just nine returning starters from last season which is the fewest in the MWC and it is the No. 119 experienced team in the country (out of 130). New Mexico is coming off a loss against rival New Mexico St., the second straight loss in the series with the Aggies. While the Lobos followed up the loss last season with another loss, that game was against Rutgers where they had to travel to the east coast so this is a much different situation. New Mexico is coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2006-2007 and are more than capable of making it three straight postseason appearances for the first time since 2002-2004. Certainly, there was no shortage of things the Lobos did wrong against the Aggies including four turnovers, 13 penalties, missed opportunities, lack of a pass rush and poor coverage in the secondary. The good news is a short week can have a positive effect. The home field advantage for Boise St. as it has gone 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games and that lone cover came by just a half-point. Meanwhile, the Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. 10* (103) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Monday Enforcer. Not many people will be high on the Chargers this season but we are not one of those. They will have one of the worst home field advantages because of their stadium but talent-wise, they are right up there. We made a future play on Los Angeles winning the AFC West which is a wide-open division. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so imagine if they can go a season without longterm major injuries. Denver is nothing special with a pedestrian offense including a weak offensive line and questions at quarterback. Last season, the Broncos ranked 27th total offense at 323.1 ypg, 21st in passing at 230.0 ypg, 27th in rushing at 92.8 ypg and 22nd in scoring with 20.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense is losing ground. DeMarcus Ware retired, Shane Ray will not be back until at least Week Eight, T.J. Ward was released and Shaq Barrett is still working his way back from an injured hip. These teams are much more equal now. The same two systems apply to the Chargers here. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (481) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Monday Star Attraction. Both Minnesota and New Orleans missed the playoffs last season and both are projected to make runs at the postseason this year. The Vikings made the playoff two years ago thanks to a big run at the end of the season but last year was a different story as after a 5-0 start, Minnesota closed the season by winning just three of its last 11 games. There are issues on offense, especially with the offensive line, so getting the running game going will be difficult and Sam Bradford cannot win a game on his own. The Saints are an improved team which will be out to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. The offense took a hit with the loss of Brandin Cooks but they will be just fine. One major improvement from this team is the defense as the secondary is better with the drafting of Marshon Lattimore and the linebackers will be improved by the drafting of Alex Anzalone, signing A.J. Klein in free agency and hiring Mike Nolan to coach the group. Two excellent situations fall onto the Saints side. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (479) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Week One NFL Game of the Week. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. We have systems in place that have been very profitable in the first week and the Jaguars/Texans game falls into one of those which we can call the regression perception system. Houston is again expected to make a run at the AFC South title thanks to its potent defense but the offense remains a huge concern going into the season coming off a 9-7 season. Jacksonville went 3-13 last season and is coming off a preseason that was widely regarded as horrible in all aspects. The Jaguars have a season win total of 6.5 games so things are expected to be better but the public is not buying it this week against Houston as the Texans are overvalued yet the public is making the Texans the second highest home consensus on the board. This is only part of the Jaguars value as the system in place backs it up. We play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2004 including 12-3 ATS (80 percent) since 2013. 10* (457) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for out Week One Enforcer. The Raiders were one of the pleasant surprises last season as they won 12 games but were unable to make a playoff run after quarterback Derek Carr went down. It was a special season and many are picking the Raiders as a sleeper Super Bowl team but they are missing the fact that they won five games by a field goal or less and in overtime and eight games by one possession or less so things could have been a lot different. Oakland now has a healthy Carr back and the signing of Marshawn Lynch should help the running game but this is the classic example of a team that is ripe for regression and a lot of that is based on the number of close wins from last season. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South following a 9-7 season from last year and just missing the playoffs. The Titans have missed the playoffs the last eight seasons but now have the team on both sides to make a move. This is a rematch from last season where Oakland came here in Week Three and won 17-10 but this is a different Tennessee team playing for revenge in what turned out to be a heated game. Marcus Mariota was in a funk, Rishard Matthews was still struggling to get comfortable in the offense, and what many people viewed as the team's top two options in the passing game in Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker did not play. Now, Eric Decker, a comfortable and reliable Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Taywan Taylor, and Corey Davis give Mariota multiple options. There is also a great situation the Titans fall into based on regression possibilities as we play against Week One road underdogs that won eight or more games last season and had a better record than their opponent. This situation is 35-10-3 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2004. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Week One Wiseguy Wipeout. Atlanta enters a new season following the worst implosion in Super Bowl history as it blew a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter and eventually lost in overtime. Despite the close margin in the end, the Falcons were outgained by the Patriots by 202 yards so they were fortunate to be in that position to begin with. Many will be calling Atlanta to come out with a chip on its shoulder but these situations are tough to bounce back from despite the fact six months have passed and now we have a situation we have not seen before based on the historic collapse. One thing we do know is that teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not fared well out of the gate. Super Bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-17 ATS over the last 20 games. Now the Falcons are laying a touchdown on the road which is horrible situation to begin with. The Bears are coming off a 3-13 season and are projected for 5.5 wins this season so it looks to be another long season in Chicago. They posted their lowest win total in a non-strike year since the 1973 team went 3-11 and most losses since 1969 so not many will be backing this team. Offensively, Mike Glennon gets the call at quarterback and he a solid running game behind him led by Jordan Howard who finished second to Ezekiel Elliott with 1,313 yards rushing. For the Bears to keep things close here and throughout the season, the defense must play well and that is more than possible. The Bears believe they have the makings of a strong front seven if they stay healthy, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. Since 2001, home underdogs of seven or more points in Week One are 5-1 ATS. 10* (456) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Week One Ultimate Underdog. This play goes along the same lines as the regression perception system but with a couple tweaks that makes it more of a public fade system. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. The Jets are projected to win 3.5 games based on the Vegas number and there have been voices saying a winless season is not out of the question. It is clearly a rebuilding season for New York and will be an underdog in every game this season but we must consider what kind of underdog it is going to be based on the spot. Buffalo is projected to win three more games than the Jets but that could be aggressive as the Bills seem to be playing for the future as well by trading some of the better players and loading up on draft picks. At this stage, they cannot be laying a number this big to anyone and even more so with their top two quarterbacks still in concussion protocol early in the week. The situation in play here is we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 35-8-2 (81.4 percent) since 2003 including 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2013. We see some crazy things in the opening week of the NFL season and a Jets win would be right up there. 10* (453) New York Jets

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Saturday Star Attraction. USC was a big letdown for us last week as it did not show up until late in the game to eventually pull away from Western Michigan. The Trojans were likely guilty of looking ahead to this big matchup with Stanford but as noted last week, prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. USC should have named the score last week but because of the closer than anticipated game, the Trojans are getting some excellent value in the number this week. Stanford was off last week after dominating Rice in Australia two weeks ago and that was not a game to get a good read on the Cardinal. They are expected to contend with Washington in the Pac 12 North and this is once again a very solid Stanford team despite the loss of Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinal have been a very strong road team but they have had their struggles against top level teams as they are 2-4 the last four years on the road against ranked teams and one of those took place right here. This has been a Stanford dominated series as the Cardinal have won seven of the last nine meetings and the two USC wins have come by just three points each so based on history, no one will be lining up behind the Trojans this week. That is more than fine as USC is coming back to its normal program following years of lowered scholarships and is finally geared up with the talent and depth to make a championship run. The Trojans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing with double-revenge as favorites and they get that revenge Saturday night. 10* (388) USC Trojans

This is a play on the UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS for our NCAAF Game of the Week. UNLV is coming off the worst loss in college football history in line to the pointspread as it fell at home to Howard 43-40 as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels did not show up as they lost three fumbles and committed 13 penalties and those are two areas where the mental side of the game simply was not there and that changes this week. They have heard all week about how bad of a loss it was and because it was so early in the season, they know there is plenty of time to make up for it and we will see an all-out effort this week. Idaho is coming off a bowl win against Colorado St. last season which came out of nowhere as the Vandals were a combined 9-50 in their previous five years. They did return 14 starters and going back to last season, they have won six straight games following a rather unimpressive win over Sacramento St. last week. Idaho returns only five starters on each side of the ball this season and while the Vandals are playing with confidence, they catch UNLV at the wrong time. This is also a revenge game for UNLV which lost at home to Idaho last year in overtime despite winning the yardage battle 539-378. The Rebels were favored by 14.5 points in that game so we are seeing a three-touchdown swing in less than a year and that is too big of an adjustment for these two teams. National embarrassment has a funny way of providing a sudden burst of motivation and UNLV shows that off Saturday night. 10* (389) UNLV Runnin' Rebels

This is a classic example of why looking at final scores can be meaningless when looking at future games and prices. NC State looks to bounce back from a loss against South Carolina as it fell at home by seven points in a game that it dominated. The Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. The Wolfpack defense allowed just 22 yards over the final five drives on defense and they can absolutely dominate again this Saturday. Marshall won its season opener against Miami Ohio but it was the opposite of what happened with NC State. The Thundering Herd were outgained 429-267 but returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and also returned an interception for another score. The RedHawks controlled the time of possession and allowed just 15 first downs so it was a win by Marshall that was a fortunate as they come. After three straight double-digit win seasons, the Thundering Herd won just three games last year and lost all five road games by double digits. NC State has gone to three straight bowl games and with 17 returning starters, greater things are expected in 2017. That disappointing loss in the season opener is going to fuel the Wolfpack even more and with Furman on deck, they will be fully focused this week. Despite the loss last week, they have covered 11 of their last 14 non-conference games while Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (368) NC State Wolfpack

While Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. are the head of the Big XII class, do not sleep on TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off a dreadful 6-7 season and we say dreadful because it was their first losing season since 2004 so a big bounce back season can be expected in 2017. Three of the last four times TCU has finished with eight or fewer wins, it has won 11, 11 and 12 games and this team is loaded now. The Horned Frogs bring back 17 starters overall with 10 of those coming on offense including quarterback Kenny Hill and all other playmakers. Their top three rushers and top nine receivers are all back. Arkansas is coming off another average season under head coach Bret Bielema who is now just 26-26 in four-plus seasons following a season opening win over Florida A&M last week. 12 of those 26 wins have come against non-Power Five teams so there is some underachieving going on here in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks bring back a strong offensive line and Austin Allen is a solid quarterback but after that, there is not much on this team. They come in with one of the weakest defensive lines in the SEC and will get shredded against this TCU offense that is ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 in running backs, receivers and offensive line in the Big XII. There is revenge on the table for the horned Frogs as well as they are off a loss in overtime last season despite outgaining Arkansas by 169 total yards. TCU is 12-4 on the road over the last three seasons while the Razorbacks have failed to cover six straight games following a win. 10* (363) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Saturday Enforcer. Michigan St. overcame a slow start last week as it pulled away from Bowling Green in a game that it really dominated. The Spartans defense was the story as they did not allow a touchdown as the Falcons lone trot into the endzone came from a fumble return in the fourth quarter. They allowed only 212 total yards against a Falcons offense that averaged 407 ypg last season despite losing a ton from its record setting offense from 2015. Michigan St. is coming off its worst season ever under head coach Mark Dantonio and its first losing season since 2009. The three wins were the fewest since 1994 and this coming after a berth in the CFP in 2015 but all of this means we can buy low and that is the case here. We played against Western Michigan last week and give the Broncos credit as they went into USC and played the Trojans tough in a game that was not decided until late. USC was not showing its full arsenal early on with a game against Stanford on deck and that nearly came back to haunt the Trojans. Now Western Michigan has to regroup in a hurry and face another Power Five team which is a cause for concern. The Broncos were a special team last season as they opened 13-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl and take away the wins over Northwestern and Illinois and they are just 2-17 in their last 19 non-conference road games with those two wins both coming against Idaho, first in 2008 when the Vandals went 2-10 and then in 2014 when they went 1-10. 10* (310) Michigan St. Spartans

While a win over Grambling should not count for much, it was the first season opening win for Tulane since 2013 for a program that is heading in the right direction. The Green Wave finished with four wins last season which was more wins than in four of the previous five seasons so the first year under head coach Willie Fritz was a success. He led Georgia Southern to an 18-7 record in his two years there before coming to Tulane and he has amassed a 195-74-1 record in his head coaching career. He brought with him his option rushing attack and after a successful first year, things will only be better this time around. Taking over at quarterback this season is Kansas St. transfer Jonathan Banks who fits perfectly into this system and is coming off a great debut. Navy won last Friday in a game that had no rhythm due to storms and delays which hurt Florida Atlantic to get anything going. The Midshipmen now head back to Annapolis for their home opener and are again being asked to lay double-digits only this time against a team that matches up better which we saw last season. Tulane had the lead over Navy late in the fourth quarter but could not hold on as Navy scored the game winning touchdown with 2:57 left and the Green Wave could not pull off the upset. That was one of three losses for Tulane that came by a single possession so their season could have been even better. This is a program on the rise that has not had much go its way with only one bowl appearance since 2002 and with a game at Oklahoma on deck, getting out of here with a great effort is of utmost importance. 10* (347) Tulane Green Wave

While we will not go as far to say that Purdue is bound for a big season, we will say that the Boilermakers are heading in the right direction. Purdue has not been relevant since the days of Joe Tiller as it has been to just two bowl games since he retired in 2008. The hiring of Jeff Brohm looks to be a perfect fit here and one that will get the Boilermakers back on the map. They are coming off a solid effort last week against Louisville where they lost by a touchdown but were the victims of four turnovers and while they were outgained by 180 total yards, they have only two fewer first downs. Purdue now takes a step down in competition in its home opener which happens to come in front of a National TV audience. Ohio meanwhile has not had a losing season since 2008 and has been to a bowl game in seven of the eight years since then. The Bobcats are coming off a laugher in their season opener against Hampton as they rolled 59-0 but we can take little from that game based on the opposition. Ohio is expected to contend in the MAC once again this season but there is a big difference between the MAC and the Big Ten even if it is the lower echelon of the Big Ten. The Bobcats are just 2-10 against Power Five teams since 2007 and they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Purdue has won 13 consecutive home openers and it has covered nine of its last 13 games following a straight up loss. 10* (302) Purdue Boilermakers

The Patriots closed last season by winning their last 10 games, covering the last eight games, including an improbable Super Bowl comeback over Atlanta where they trailed 28-3 before winning in overtime. New England is the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again this season at +385 as of four days before their season opener. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-1 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-3-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years including cover wins the last three seasons. Kansas is coming off another successful season where it went 12-4, its second straight double-digit win campaign but it stumbled in the playoffs yet again, losing to the Steelers at home. This is a big number the Chiefs are getting here and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Kansas City getting a touchdown or more. The Chiefs won their last six road games last season but they are heading to an environment which will be tough to compete in and the Patriots have dominated in these situations. They are 13-3-3 ATS at home the last two seasons while going 18-7-2 against conference opponents over that same stretch. 10* (452) New England Patriots

UCLA came into last season as a top 15 teams but lost its season opener in overtime, lost its star quarterback halfway through the season and lost six of its last seven games to post its first losing season since 2011. The loss of quarterback Josh Rosen was a big reason for the second half collapse by the Bruins as those were definitely intertwined but partly to fault is head coach Jim mora who failed to make adjustments on offense and finds himself squarely on the hot seat entering 2017. UCLA will be back to contend in the Pac 12 North as it brings nine starters back on offense including Rosen who is back to full health. Half of their losses last season came by one possession which gives the Bruins value heading into this season and the line dictates that. That opening loss from last season came against Texas A&M despite outgaining the Aggies so there is revenge on the table. Another coach in the hot seat is Kevin Sumlin who has his teams highly ranked at some point in the season only to lose crucial games and implode late to fall out of the rankings altogether. The Aggies have finished 8-5 each of the last three seasons which would be good for some programs but there has been too much inconsistency where opportunities have been there only to be missed. Texas A&M brings back only 12 starters this season and the quarterback situation is a mess as it saw two transfers and it is still undecided if senior Jake Hubenak, redshirt freshman Nick Starkel or true freshman Kellen Mond will be making their first ever road start. Part of this is Sumlin not giving away info but the other part is that there is no clear-cut choice. 10* (212) UCLA Bruins

This is the one week that we can take advantage of betting big favorites, something we typically do not do later in the season when lines become a lot sharper. This is one of those games where the home team can name the score and we expect that to happen. USC comes into the season as a legit National Championship contender for the first time in a while after a great end to last season. The Trojans were blown out in their season opener against Alabama last year and then opened 0-2 in the Pac 12 before going on to win their final nine games of the season including a Rose Bowl win against Penn St. they bring back a slew of talent including Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Darnold who narrowly lost his first game as a starter against Utah but then won the next nine starts, only two of those victories coming by single-digits. It may be worrisome that USC has Stanford on deck but that is a non-issue. Prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. Western Michigan is coming off a season for the ages as the Broncos went 12-0 during the regular season, defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship but fell to Wisconsin by eight points in the Cotton Bowl. It was a season that cannot be duplicated especially knowing that head coach P.J. Fleck is gone and that the Broncos have to replace seven starters on offense including their quarterback as well as their top three receivers. This is a big number to be laying but it is this big for a reason and should be even bigger but the memory of what Western Michigan did last season is keeping it manageable. 10* (182) USC Trojans

Notre Dame is another big-name program that looks to bounce back following a disappointing 4-8 season. The Irish are favored by a significant amount in their opener but with them expected to be one of them most improved teams in the nation, this line would be a lot higher a month from now as the struggles from last season are playing a part in the number. Those eight losses are being taken into consideration but what is not being considered is the fact that of those eight losses, seven came by one possession including four by a field goal or less. While it was not an experienced team last season, Notre Dame returns 15 starters and in the mix are new coordinators. Defensively, the Irish were okay and now they have a new coordinator in Mike Elko who turned Wake Forest around. Chip Long takes over the offense that has to replace the quarterback but brings back the top rusher, receiver and four players along the huge offensive line. Temple was a bookies nightmare last year as after a loss against Army in the season opener, the Owls ran off 12 consecutive spread victories before losing to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. Temple lost 12 starters from last season, the majority on a stout defense that has brought back 8, 10 and 6 starters the last three seasons but brings back just four in 2017. Offensively, the receiving corps returns intact but the Owls have to break in a new quarterback and also lost their top running back. Most important, head coach Matt Rhule left for Baylor and Temple also has to replace both coordinators as well and their replacements are not nearly as strong as those for Notre Dame. This is a big game for Notre Dame to get the season going in the right direction in front of the home crowd before welcoming Georgia next week. 10* (188) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The reigning National Champions kick off on Saturday in the early slate of games and while the game looks easy on paper, the situation is not a good one to open. Clemson plays its first game with the title trophy so every opponent is going to be giving its all in trying to pull off a victory. The Tigers are again going to be a solid team as they come in ranked No. 5 in the AP Preseason poll but the start of the season could be one that takes time for this team to come together. They have to replace quarterback Deshaun Watson, leading rusher Wayne Gallman and their top two receivers so the offense will be a work in progress. This is the perfect opponent to try and iron out some of the wrinkles and play within its means and not show too much. This is because the Tigers host Auburn next week, a team they narrowly escaped last season with a six-point win. That was one of seven wins by a touchdown or less and that is something to go against the following season. Kent St. has won just eight games the last three years but all signs point to improvement this season. The Golden Flashes bring back 13 starters from a team that lost four games by four points or less and held its own against Penn St. in the season opener. The offense struggled last season but will be better in 2017 with more experience and it does not have to do much here to cover this number. Clemson has covered just once in five games when favored by five or more touchdowns under head coach Dabo Swinney including a six-point win against Troy as a 35-point chalk which came right after that Auburn game. 10* (159) Kent St. Golden Flashes

As mentioned in a different analysis, playing big favorites in the first week of the season can be very advantageous as we can get some soft numbers that could feasibly be much higher later in the season should things pan out the way as we are predicting. Texas has been an average program since 2009 when it lost to Alabama in the BSC Championship as it has gone 46-42 over the last seven seasons and has not reached double-digit win over this span. The Longhorns started declining with Mack Brown and the Charlie Strong experiment lasted just three seasons. In comes Tom Herman who looks to be an ideal fit to turn Texas back into a national power and while it likely may not happen this year, we can expect a strong start from Texas. Herman has 17 returning starters and the Longhorns bring back the fifth most experienced team in the country so most everyone is back in what will be a very hungry team to forget the debacle from the end of last season. Texas opens at home for the first two weeks before heading to USC to face the Trojans so these first two weeks are important for momentum and confidence. Maryland was a pleasant surprise last season as it won six games after winning just three games in 2015 but we are not so sure the improvement was justified. Only one of the Terrapins six regular season losses was close and they defeated some bad teams along the way to become bowl eligible. Quarterback Tyrell Pigrome won the starting job over blue chip recruit Kasim Hill and North Carolina transfer Caleb Henderson which was a surprise so the offense could struggle early on. Texas needs it supporters to believe and that is not just done with a win but a blowout win. 10* (186) Texas Longhorns

Navy did not finish the season well last year as it lost its last three games, including a loss against Army which snapped a 14-game winning streak against the Black Knights. The Midshipmen come into this season with a few question marks at some key positions namely offensive line and running back. They lost four of their top five rushers and they must replace three of their five already undersized offensive linemen. The Navy flexbone attack is ground-based and requires defenders to play disciplined, assignment football in a way that will not be as necessary against spread offenses. Luckily for Florida Atlantic, the Owls have extra time to prepare. Does that make a difference? You bet it does. Under head coach Ken Niumatalolo is 5-4 in season openers with four of those wins coming against Towson, Delaware, Colgate and Fordham, all from the FCS so FBS teams are 2-1 in those games. There is a lot of buzz at Florida Atlantic with the hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new head coach and while he will help immensely with recruiting, the bigger hire could be offensive coordinator Kendal Briles who is in place to turn around an inconsistent offense. There is still a question of who is going to start at quarterback but running backs Devin Singletary, Buddy Howell and Kerrith White were six yards short of rushing for two thousand yards combined last season, along with 26 touchdowns. Defensively, the line has been great during the spring and the linebackers that were hurt in the spring and early fall are back and will contribute in stopping the Navy ground attack. Overall, the Owls are the most experienced team in the country with 96.2 percent of their yards and 88 percent of their lettermen back for 2017. 10* (146) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a huge game for Indiana and the coaching staff is not downplaying it as they are calling it the biggest opening game in the history of Indiana football. That means little when it comes down to the actual playing of the game but the Hoosiers will possess a significant home field advantage. They are coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1990-91and they are projected to make it three in a row. This is a very talented team with 15 starters returning and they can give Ohio St. some troubles. Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow has stepped up as a leader during the offseason and he spent a lot of time studying how he can improve his decision-making to cut down on turnovers. He will be throwing to a wide receiver group that includes Simmie Cobbs, Nick Westbrook and Donavan Hale along with tight end Ian Thomas. This part of the offense is important as they will be going against a very inexperienced secondary. Defensively, Indiana has nine starters back from a team that improved from allowing 37.6 ppg in 2015 to 27.2 ppg in 2016 so they should be even better. Former head coach Kevin Wilson is the new offensive coordinator so the Hoosiers will have an edge in knowing the tendencies that will be coming their way even though that can go both ways. Limiting turnovers is stating the obvious but if Indiana wants to sniff an upset, the turnover battle must be won. The Hoosiers have played Ohio St. very tough over the last few years and most of those were inferior teams than the 2017 edition. While a close game can be expected, we take advantage of a very overpriced line that is based on the Ohio St. name and its CFP hopes for the upcoming season. 10* (134) Indiana Hoosiers

It was a roller coaster season for Hawaii last season but it ended on a good note to carry some momentum into the 2017 season. You will rarely see a .500 season that feels like more of a success than the Warriors as it was the combination of resilience and an increasingly competent offense, and there is no reason to assume that either will disappear before 2017 begins. Hawaii won its final three games including an upset over Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl and comes in ready to light it up. Quarterback Dru Brown and running back Diocemy Saint Juste return to form one of the MWCs scarier backfields while nine of the top 11 receiving targets and three starting offensive linemen also return. The defense was a problem last season as Hawaii allowed 5.3 ypc and a 48 percent conversion rate on third down. Those are two of the stats it needs to improve upon and that is very likely to happen for two reasons as the Warriors will be better on defense than in 2016, and their schedule does not include trips to Michigan and Arizona (111 points allowed in just those two games). Massachusetts is coming off a 2-10 season and while it should be better, it will not be much better. The offensive line is a big weakness with just two starters back trying to improve upon the No. 124 ranked rushing offense in the country and that spells trouble. In 2015 when they won three games, the Minutemen were outrushed by 51 ypg but that ballooned to over 95 ypg last season so they need help on both sides. They do not have the passing game to keep up with Hawaii so any early lead for the Warriors could be too much for Massachusetts to catch up to. The travel is always a concern with Hawaii but that is a non-issue with this being the first game of the season. 10* (293) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Over the last 12 editions of the Super Bowl, only one has surpassed the total that we are dealing with this year as Super Bowl XLVII between Baltimore and San Francisco saw 65 points scored. Of the first 50 Super Bowls, only eight have had 60 total points scored so history shows that we should be in for a lower scoring game than what the over/under is telling us. While history can tell us a lot, it cannot always predict the future and this number is big for a reason despite the Patriots brining in the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. As a comparison, the over/under for the NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Packers closed at 59.5. both New England and Green Bay have very potent offenses so those totals were set based on the defenses and clearly the linesmakers do not trust the Patriots top ranked unit. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. No one has been able to stop the Falcons for the most part and with the Atlanta defense not very good to begin with, the Patriots will be able to move the ball as well. As long as we can avoid settling for redzone field goals, this could turn into a very high scoring Super Bowl. 10* Over (101) New England Patriots/(102) Atlanta Falcons

This is the seventh time that the top ranked scoring offense has faced off against the top ranked scoring defense in the Super Bowl. In the previous six matchups, the top ranked defense has come away the winner but the situation is different this season based on what the defense has faced. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. Atlanta will have success on offense as the balance is there to be effective and keep New England off balance. The difference should come down to the Falcons defense trying and stop the Patriots offense and while that likely will not happen, it will be slowed down enough. The rankings of the Atlanta defense are not very good but those rankings are skewed to a degree. Because of the firepower of the offense, opposing teams have had to try and play catch-up more often than not which leads to garbage points and garbage yards. To prove this, the Falcons have led at the half in 13 of their 18 games including the last six. Getting off to another quick start will again put them in great position to win their first ever Super Bowl. 10* (102) Atlanta Falcons

The Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak and are 12-1 since the return of quarterback Tom Brady. Is this the product of a very elite New England team or the product of a very soft schedule? While it consists of both, it is more of the latter. Great teams win and the Patriots are doing just that but there is more too it since there has been little resistance from opposing offense. New England is No.1 in the NFL in points allowed and since Brady returned, here is the list of quarterbacks he has faced. Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Bryce Petty, Trevor Simien, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Landry Jones, Andy Dalton and Cody Kessler. The quarterback with the highest rating of the group was Russell Wilson and that resulted in a loss. There is a reason the defense has looked good because the numbers are skewed. Now they get to face Ben Roethlisberger who missed the first meeting back in Week Seven and the Steelers still won the yardage battle in that game. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh has won nine straight games and has been outgained only once over that stretch which was the regular season finale when the big three on offense rested. While the Steelers won by just two points last week, they dominated Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs by 162 total yards. The defense is unspectacular but still very solid and can certainly slow down the New England offense. While New England is more accustomed to this spot, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Championships games while the Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (313) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Packers are the popular public play to make it to the Super Bowl as after Aaron Rodgers said they were going to run the table, they have done just that. They have won their last eight games, putting up 30 or more points in their last six, while covering seven of those games and taking three of those outright. Rodgers is playing at a high level right now as he has had a quarterback rating surpassing 100 in seven of his last nine games. Turn on any sports talk show and he is all you hear about in this game. Well, Matt Ryan may have something to say about this. He led the NFL in quarterback rating and he has surpassed a 100 rating in eight of his last 10 games. Many will point to the fact that Green Bay is once again getting more than a field goal for a second straight week but this week, the challenge will be more difficult. Last week, Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead but could not pull away as the defense allowed the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to get right back in the game and nearly had to go to overtime. The Packers secondary is a mess and they will be challenge even more here against the top ranked offense in the NFL. Last week, we played against Atlanta thinking the Seahawks defense could slow the Falcons down and that was not the case as Ryan tore them apart. Playing the final game ever in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons will have an even greater home field advantage which will help the defense which we saw last week. They will not shut Green Bay down but have the potential to slow them down enough to be able to allow their own offense to pull away. 10* (312) Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs backed into a first round bye thanks to the Raiders losing Derek Carr for the season and them losing their final game of the regular season so it is very fortunately than Kansas City is sitting in this position. Despite a 12-4 record, the Chiefs were outgained on average by 23.6 ypg which is the fifth worst differential in the NFL. They were only better than the 49ers, Browns, Rams and Dolphins and we saw what happened to the latter last week in Pittsburgh. Hitting the road and winning will be a challenge for the Steelers but they are the better team and the only thing that can hurt them here is turnovers. Pittsburgh has won eight straight games and while the opposition has not been great, winning is winning and they have done it in a variety of ways. Running the ball has been successful as LeVeon Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards over his last seven games while Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown is the explosive part of the passing game. On the other side, Since Week Nine, the Steelers defense is averaging 3.5 sacks per game with consistent pressure from traditional pass rushers or timely blitzes. The Steelers have a fully stocked roster for the first time in the last three playoff appearances which is huge for this team that has so much talent all over the place. Going back, the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. 10* (305) Pittsburgh Steelers

It is pretty rare to see teams favored by this many points in the playoffs and even during the Patriots 16-0 season back in 2007, they were not favored by this much. In the past 40 years, only three other teams have been favored by 16 points or more in a playoff game and while this line has snuck below that as of Wednesday, the point has been made. New England is good enough to win any game by more than this amount but this is not the ideal team to do it against. The Patriots have rolled to seven straight wins and finished 14-2 during the regular season but they have played no one since early in the season. Since their Week Nine bye week, they have faced two playoff teams, one resulting in a loss against Seattle and the other resulting in a win over Miami without Ryan Tannehill. Actually both wins over playoff teams since Week Seven back come against backup quarterbacks, the other being Landry Jones of the Steelers. The Texans had little issue with Oakland last week and despite winning against a backup, the defense is good enough to hold its own here. The running game will be big as well to keep the ball away from the Patriots offense. Lamar Miller sat the final two games of the regular season, but he ran the ball a season-high 31 times against the Raiders and looks healthy. Houston lost the first meeting 27-0 and that was without Tom Brady in the lineup but the Texans still won the yardage battle but gave the ball away three times, something they cannot afford to do this week. 10* (303) Houston Texans

The favorites dominated last week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs as they went a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS with all four games being decided by double-digits which made for some bad football viewing. We should see this come back into line this week and we will start out on Saturday by grabbing the first underdog. Seattle rolled over Detroit last weekend and has now outgained six straight opponents and when comparing these two teams, Seattle is arguably the better team even though the line indicated the Falcons are superior. The Seahawks offense has been all over the place this season but the good news is that they got the running game going last week and now face an even worse defense as the Falcons are ranked No. 27 in total defensive efficiency. On the flip side, Atlanta has the most potent offense in the NFL but squares off against one of the strongest defenses as the Seahawks are ranked No 4 in defensive efficiency and are ranked No. 6 in fewest yards allowed per drive at 28.58. The Seahawks have been fantastic against the run all season long, limiting opponents to a league-low 3.37 ypc. In the first meeting, the Seahawks were without strong safety Kam Chancellor and defensive lineman Frank Clark. The Seahawks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (301) Seattle Seahawks

Even though Clemson may not have looked as good during the regular season as it did last season, the Tigers still had their lapses then namely against Syracuse and South Carolina late in the season. The game against Ohio St. solidified what they can do when focused and this team is capable of not only covering but winning outright against Alabama. The Tide have typically struggled against mobile quarterbacks and we saw it last season in the championship as Deshawn Watson was responsible for 478 yards of offense himself. Clemson got a late score for the cover but it was typically within the number the whole game with the difference being Alabama returning a kickoff for a touchdown. Overall, Alabama had four touchdowns of 50 yards or more and the offense is not as dynamic this season as last. The Tide cannot stretch the ball down field and while they possess a fantastic running game, Clemson has a very strong rushing defense with numbers similar to last season. Take a Derrick Henry 50-yard touchdown run away and he averaged just 3.1 ypc in his other 35 rushes. The best part for the Tigers is that they are not intimidated. They were not last year and are not again this year. They have more competitive depth on both sides with more experience that simply translates into a better football team. We are getting a similar number to last year with what is an improved team so we will run with it again this season. 10* (151) Clemson Tigers

It has been a great season for the Dolphins which finished 10-6 but they took a hit with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Despite that, the overall record is skewed as Miami closed the season by getting outgained in its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The only two games the Dolphins won the yardage battle were against Los Angeles and Arizona by just 13 and 14 yards respectively. Matt Moore is a capable backup for sure but he is in a tough spot making a playoff start in what looks to be not ideal weather. The Steelers rested their main starters in Week 17 against the Browns and that was a good move. While they were outgained, that meant nothing. Prior to that, Pittsburgh had outgained nine straight opponents and the last team to outgain the Steelers happened to be the Dolphins. That was the game Ben Roethlisberger was injured and not nearly 100 percent even though he finished it out. Revenge does come into play but that is not a huge motivator come playoff time considering what is at stake. More importantly, this is a big game for Pittsburgh which surprisingly has not won a home playoff game since 2011 so motivation will be huge here based on that alone. The Steelers went 3-0 ATS this season as favorites of eight or more points while the Dolphins defeated only one playoff team this season, the aforementioned Steelers game. Additionally, the Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle has not looked great lately as it is just 3-3 in its last six games but there was not much of a motivation level toward the end of the season. The Seahawks lost their only home game of the season in Week 16 against Arizona but they already had the division locked up and were no longer in contention for a first round bye so it is tough to get up for a game like that. The only time Seattle was outgained however was at Tampa Bay and it has won the yardage battle in its last five games. Overall, Seattle had the third highest yardage differential in the NFL at +38.5 ypg and third amongst playoff teams. The Seahawks finished third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense and will be a big factor here against a Detroit offense that was efficient but not very potent. The Lions definitely has a surprisingly good season with low expectations coming in but it was a season that could have easily gone south. Detroit has been involved in some close games this season as 13 of 16 games have finished within one possession win or lose. That is going to sway some bettors to back the Lions but that is not a wise move here. Detroit was outgained on average by 16 ypg which was ninth worst in the league and second worst amongst playoff teams. The weather does not look great for Saturday night and the Lions have played outdoors exactly twice since Oct. 2, and their coldest kickoff temp was 55 degrees in the Week 15 loss to the Giants. The Seattle playoff experience will play huge dividends here as well. 10* (104) Seattle Seahawks

People are unfairly putting a fork in the Raiders because of the loss of quarterback Derek Carr for the season and while that loss is huge, they are far from done especially in this matchup. Connor Cook got thrown into the fire last Sunday after backup Matt McGloin got hurt and Cook did an admiral job as he competed 14 of 20 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown along with a pick. This came with practice with the first team and going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Granted, Houston is in that category as well but a week of practice could do wonders for the rookie. Taking a look at the other side, Houston returns with quarterback Brock Osweiler who finished with the second worst passer rating in the NFL. The Texans offense finished ahead of only the Rams, Browns and Jets in points scored at 17.4 ppg and even that is skewed because of defensive and special team points. Houston generated more than two offensive touchdowns a total of zero times in 16 games and its 1.4 offensive touchdown per game average is dead last in the league. The Oakland defense is nothing special but Houston did not exactly play many top level defenses along the way. In a game that could go either way, we will grab the underdog that looks to be overpriced on top of it. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders

Auburn had a surprisingly good season as after a 1-2 start, the Tigers ran off six straight wins before being dominated in their last two games against FBS opponents. The defense carried the team all season as it allowed 30 points only once which came in the season finale against Alabama but even that was a skewed score as the Tigers allowed 501 total yards. The offense is the real issue as they gained just 184 total yards and that came after picking up only 164 yards against Georgia. Oklahoma presents a real problem for auburn as the Sooners balanced offense averaged over 237 yards on the ground and close to 320 yards through the air. Oklahoma won its last nine games following a 1-2 start and most of those win were blowouts while getting outgained only once during that stretch. The Sooners closed the season by covering their last five games against teams with a winning record and the run continues on Monday. 10* (282) Oklahoma Sooners

Iowa had a signature win over Michigan this season to start a season ending three-game winning streak but like last season, it was another overrated season for the Hawkeyes. Half of their wins came against teams with three wins or fewer, another against Miami Ohio out of the MAC while losing to North Dakota St. from the FCS. The Hawkeyes came to the Rose Bowl last season and got destroyed by Stanford and a similar result is in the cards today as they play another high profile bowl game they should not be involved in. Florida got thumped by Alabama in the SEC Championship which comes as no surprise but it was a successful season for the Gators that finished with five wins over teams also participating in bowl games. Florida outgained opponents by over 46 ypg while Iowa was actually outgained by an average of close to 20 ypg. 10* (276) Florida Gators

Week 17 in the NFL is all about information as teams and players have little or a lot to play for. Washington needs to win to make the playoffs and just hope that Green Bay and Detroit do not tie tonight. The Redskins have all of the motivation here as the Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. They are in the playoffs already and cannot move out of the No. 5 seed that they are currently in. Head coach Bob McAdoo said that he is playing the starters today and repeatedly stated that but that does not mean the starters are going to finish the game. After watching Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota go down last week, he will not be taking a chance with Eli Manning or any other big time starters. Washington had lost three of four games prior to last week where it thumped Chicago so it comes in with some momentum and this is guaranteed to be the final home game of the season should the Redskins get into the postseason. Even at full strength, the Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (308) Washington Redskins

We will take advantage of this line where as if Clemson was favored by three points, there would not be much of an overreaction. The Tigers were in a similar situation a year ago where they were getting a field goal against Oklahoma and went out and won the game by 20 points while outgaining the Sooners 530-378. The difference maker was quarterback Deshawn Watson and he will be once again here despite many thinking he is not as good. Watson's 2016 passing numbers (67.6% completions, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) compare favorably to his 2015 stats (67.8% completions, 35 touchdowns, 13 picks) and while his rushing numbers are down, his attempts are way down as he has not been needed as much. While the Ohio St. defense is a menace and is one of the best around, recall what Watson did to the Alabama defense last season when he erupted for 478 total yards and four touchdowns. On the other side, J.T. Barrett had a solid season as well but not nearly as strong as he finished the regular season as the No. 43 ranked quarterback in efficiency. Clemson has a massive defensive front that can cause problems as they impose themselves instead of reacting as the action unfolds and that is the way to stop the Buckeyes offense. Over its last seven games, Ohio St. won two of those 62-3 but struggled in all of the other five games, losing once and winning the other four by just a possession and against much lesser opposition. 10* (274) Clemson Tigers

The one thing that benefits teams playing Georgia Tech in bowl games is the extra preparation time and that will be the case for Kentucky that has an additional edge as well. The Yellow Jackets are a tough team to defend when playing with the normal week of prep but since head Coach Paul Johnson took over in 2008, his Yellow Jackets are just 2-5 in his seven bowl games and the offense has underperformed to the tune of averaging over 1.0 yppl less than what they average during the regular season. That is no coincidence. Additionally, head coach Mark Stoops know the Georgia Tech offense pretty well from his days at Florida St. Kentucky is playing in its first bowl game since 2010 as it has been one-win shy in three of the past five years. This is the best Kentucky team we have seen in a decade and closing the season on a 7-3 run is impressive. One of those losses came at Alabama while another came at Tennessee despite the Wildcats winning the yardage battle. The newfound offense will present problems for the Yellow Jackets that had issues all season against offenses that could move the ball with consistency. 10* (269) Kentucky Wildcats

While some may think that the motivation level will be low for Michigan following that disappointing and controversial loss to Ohio St., motivation should not be an issue with the Wolverines. Motivation will certainly not be an issue for the Seminoles which closed the season with a 6-1 record, the lone loss coming by just three points to Clemson, and based on recent bowl games, they will be pretty fired up here in their home state. Florida St. has lost its last two bowl games by 24 and 39 points following a run of six straight bowl victories. The recent surge can be thanks to a resurgent defense. Thanks to a startling midseason turnaround, Florida St. has climbed to No. 29 in the total defense rankings (up from 94th after five games) and is allowing an average of 357.2 ypg and 5.45 yppl. Michigan is tough on both sides of the ball but it played a pretty weak schedule overall as it was ranked No. 31 in the nation compared to a No. 13 ranked schedule for the Seminoles. This is the most points Florida St. has seen all season and this is the first time Michigan has been favored by less than 11.5 points all year which shows how weak the schedule actually has been. 10* (265) Florida St. Seminoles

We will continue to back the history trend of backing big underdogs Double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 4-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Friday. South Alabama is in its second straight bowl and after losing in the Camellia Bowl last year to Bowling Green, the Jaguars will be out to win their first ever bowl game since going the BCS full time in 2012. We are definitely getting value here as they are getting double-digits because they have failed to cover their last five games and the public is riding that. South Alabama was a double-digit underdog three times this season, going 2-1 ATS in those games and both of those were outright victories against Mississippi St. and San Diego St. Air Force had a solid 9-3 regular season and comes in riding a five-game winning streak which is also playing into this number. This includes an upset victory in its season finale against Boise St. but despite the solid straight up numbers, the Falcons are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and this includes loss in all five games where they were favored by double-digits. Three of those losses were outright defeats. 10* (261) South Alabama Jaguars

While it was considered a disappointing first season under head coach Kirby Smart for Georgia, the 7-5 record does not give the Bulldogs enough credit. They had just one bad loss which was against Mississippi while three other losses came by just five points combined and they won the yardage battle in all three of those games. Georgia is coming off a disappointing loss against rival Georgia Tech in its regular season finale but it has covered four of its last five games following a straight up loss. TCU was all over the place this season as it finished 6-6 with only one of those wins coming against a bowl team. The Horned Frogs lost five games against bowl teams with the last three coming by 24, 25 and 24 points so they clearly had their struggles against the better teams. TCU went 1-7 ATS this season as a favorite including 0-4 ATS as a single digit favorite so going from a one-point dog to a favorite here is not ideal. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. This is a big game for Georgia to carry some positive momentum into next season. 10* (258) Georgia Bulldogs

Both Oklahoma St. and Colorado are coming off their worst efforts of the season as the Cowboys lost to Oklahoma for the Big XII Championship while the Buffaloes lost against Washington in the Pac 12 Championship game. It was a great season for both teams and motivation will play a big role in this one. Oklahoma St. had a similar season a year ago where it finished 10-3 and following a loss to Oklahoma by 35 points to end the regular season, it got hammered by Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl. The players from that team do not want a repeat of that and should come out with great energy. Colorado is playing in its first bowl game since 2007 so just getting here has been a huge accomplishment and not being able to win the Pac 12 Championship was a huge letdown. While the Buffaloes bring in a great defense, the offense will have trouble keeping up as the Cowboys are averaging 492.3 ypg and 38.7 ppg and this is exactly the type of offense that Colorado has struggled against this season. Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau continues to be bothered by a bad ankle and the Cowboys pressuring him will keep the passing offense in check and make them a pretty one-dimensional team. 10* (255) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

As mentioned Tuesday, double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 4-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Thursday. South Florida finished 7-1 in the AAC East but missed out on the AAC Championship due to a loss at Temple and that was the main tiebreaker. Still, it was a very solid season for the Bulls which finished 10-2 overall, the only other loss coming against Florida St. the issue is that they do not have many quality wins as a victory over Navy and Memphis were the only really good one. South Carolina has an unexpectedly good season at 6-6 after finishing 3-9 last season. The Gamecocks are also short on quality victories but they played some very competitive games against quality teams such as Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia and Florida. While the offense was suspect at times, they should do well here against a very bad South Florida defense while their own defense carried them along. The Gamecocks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (252) South Carolina Gamecocks

It is pretty hard to believe but Miami has not won a bowl game since 2006, a span of six straight losses and the hurricanes are motivated to end that streak. The fact the Hurricanes are favored against No. 14 West Virginia may be a surprise to some but it sets up the perfect contrarian opportunity here. As good of a season as West Virginia has had, the defense has been awful. The Mountaineers rank near the bottom in the country in pass defense as they are 101st out of 128 teams in the FBS in pass defense, allowing 255.7 ypg. Miami quarterback Brad Kayaa and wide receivers Ahmmon Richards, Stacy Coley and tight end David Njoku can take advantage it. The rushing defense is nothing special either as it is ranked No. 66, allowing 175.5 ypg on 4.4 ypc. On the other side, the Miami defense has proven among one of the best in the nation as it is 13th in scoring defense, 11th in yards allowed per play, sixth in tackles for loss and 23rd in total defense. The Hurricanes ended their regular season with plenty of momentum, winning each of their last four games by double-digits, covering all of those games as well and that momentum will play a huge role this afternoon to finally crack the bowl game losing streak. 10* (246) Miami Hurricanes

Motivation plays a big role during bowl season and we should see that come into play here. Baylor opened the season a perfect 6-0 but it has been all downhill since then. The season turned with a close loss to Texas on Oct. 29. The Bears were blown out the next week by TCU and then quarterback Seth Russell sustained a season-ending broken ankle against Oklahoma, and Baylor closed the season with six straight losses. Interim head coach Jim Grobe will be coaching his final game here and despite conflicting reports, it is safe to say he has lost his team. The Bears will also be without running back Shock Linwood who is sitting out in preparation for the upcoming draft. Boise St. lost its final game of the season but that should provide plenty of motivation to end the season on a high note. The Broncos lost only two games this season and those came by a combined nine points. Boise St. has a potent passing attack behind quarterback Brett Rypien and one of the best running backs in the country in Jeremy McNichols, who rushed for 1,663 yards and 23 touchdowns. On the other side, the Broncos possess one of the most physical defenses in the country and Baylor will have a tough time moving the ball without one of their top running backs and a freshman at quarterback. 10* (242) Boise St. Broncos

Double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 3-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Tuesday. Temple won the AAC Championship and comes in riding a seven-game winning streak as well as a more impressive 12-game ATS winning streak so it comes as no surprise that the Owls are heavy favorites this afternoon. They will be without former head coach Matt Rhule as well as several assistants as they have moved on to Baylor and that is a pretty big concern heading into the Military Bowl. Wake Forest had its own postseason distractions with the information leakage scandal but if anything, that should be a big motivator heading into its bowl game. This is the first bowl game for the Demon Deacons since 2011 and they will be looking for their first bowl win since 2008. While their offense struggled at times, Wake Forest runs a tricky form of an option-offense, which Temple has been typically notorious for not defending well. The Demon Deacons have a trio of players that have run for over 500 yards this season, including quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile their defense is what got them here and that will again be the difference here. 10* (237) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Maryland opened the season 4-0 before hitting a stretch of going 1-6, making its season finale against Rutgers more important than it should have been. The Terrapins took care of the Scarlet Knights without an issue and are bowling again after missing out last season while that losing stretch was not ideal, it came against some very still competition including three ranked No. 6 or better in the final ranking and all six losses came against teams going to bowl games. While it can be argued, here is another game against a bowl team, the opposition is suspect at best. The Eagles backed in to a bowl games with a pair of wins to close the season but this is one of the worst teams remaining. Boston College outgained four of its opponents by 216 or more yards but those games were against 2-10 Massachusetts, 2-10 Buffalo, 3-9 Connecticut and Wagner from the FCS. The Eagles did defeat and outgain a solid NC State team but clinched a postseason berth by defeating Wake Forest in their final game despite getting outgained by 120 total yards. The offense scored 17 points or less in half of their games and while Maryland is no defensive juggernaut, facing a team ranked second to last in the nation in total offense will not present a problem. 10* (231) Maryland Terrapins