Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This is one of the better rivalries in the NFL and it should be no different tonight. The Raiders could be hosting their last ever game in Oakland so the scene will be pretty intense and gives the Raiders a significant edge. While it has been a disappointing season for the Raiders, they have played better of late as they have outgained three of their last opponents while one of the exceptions was getting outgained by Kansas City by just 27 yards. One of the players who has caught a lot of flak is Derek Carr but he has passed for 3,697 yards and 19 touchdowns and has not thrown an interception in the last nine games. The Broncos have lost two straight games following a three-game winning streak and the talk of head coach Vance Joseph of getting fired are getting stronger. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss including going 0-6 ATS in their last six games following consecutive losses against the spread. Here, we play against teams that are averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears have clinched a playoff berth thanks to a pair of home wins over the Rams and Packers. They finished 7-1 at home but they are only 3-3 on the road and while there was a blowout win at Buffalo, the other two victories were far from dominating as they were outgained in Detroit by 69 yards and won by just two points at Arizona. To their credit, all three road losses could have been wins but the makeup of this team shows that Chicago should not be laying a significant number on the road. The 49ers are just 4-10 on the season but continue to play hard and they are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Seattle and Denver. San Francisco is 0-7 on the road but it does have a winning record at home and can close the season with its first winning record at home since 2013. Quarterback Nick Mullens has been excellent since taking over as he has a QB Rating of 96 in his six games and he is 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just four points. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 82-45 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (126) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Because the Chargers are coming off a Thursday game and are at home while Baltimore is travelling on a short week, Los Angeles has a significant situational edge. The Chargers are coming off a last-second victory at Kansas City that pulled them into a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker, so Los Angeles will have to win out and hope for the Chiefs to lose once to claim the top seed. The Chargers have won four straight games, the last three without running back Melvin Gordon and those games were all close and with Gordon back, the offense gets back another weapon. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore has won four of its last five games which has coincided with quarterback Lamar Jackson taking over for Joe Flacco. However, Jackson has fumbled an NFL-high seven times since Week 11, losing three of those, and this Chargers defense is primed for takeaways. The Ravens might currently hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but that could change dramatically if they can't upset the Chargers. A Ravens victory gets them up to an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs, while a loss drops them to just 16 percent. The Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Armed Forces Bowl Winner. A contrast in styles will be on display in Fort Worth as Army comes in the leader in the country in time of possession while Houston is dead last in the nation. The Black Knights are an excellent rushing team as they average 296.3 ypg which is second in the nation and since Week Two, the Black Knights run game is averaging 307.9 ypg and has scored 38 of 45 offensive touchdowns. The Houston defense is a sieve to begin with and it has been without its top four defensive linemen including consensus All-American Ed Oliver who had a knee injury but could have played Saturday and he elected not to avoid further injury and get ready for the NFL Draft. The Cougars are going to struggle as they are allowing 197.1 ypg on the ground which is No. 97 in the country. One missed tackle or blown assignment could lead to a big gain and Houston must also avoid penalties that could extend Army drives. The Cougars do possess a potent offense but are down to their second string quarterback and they now face an Army defense that has been quietly excellent as it is No. 9 in the country, allowing just 293.5 ypg. Additionally for Houston, talented receivers Courtney Lark and Keith Corbin are both questionable to play as well. Here, we play against teams averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 280 and 330 ypg, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (224) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our Potato Bowl Winner. There are just four double-digit favorites in the bowl games this season and BYU is arguably the one that should not be. The Cougars played a difficult non-conference season and while they sustained some close losses, they also were not impressive with their wins with the last four coming against McNeese St., Hawaii, Massachusetts and New Mexico St. This is a pedestrian offense that averaged just 354.5 ypg which was No. 107 in the country and for a unit like that to be asked to cover a double-digit number is difficult. On the flip side, Western Michigan finished No. 30 in total offense and while its schedule was not nearly as difficult, this team can score which is a significant factor for a sizable underdog. While the Cougars defense had a solid season, injuries piled up along the way as three starters have been lost over the last month of the season. Motivation is key and the Broncos feeling slighted with this spread. Western Michigan went 6-6 last year but was one of four eligible teams not invited to a bowl, so the Broncos are thrilled to be playing a game in the postseason a year later. The line switch is significant considering double-digit bowl favorites are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games when they closed the regular season as a double-digit underdog. 10* (220) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our Gasparilla Bowl Winner. South Florida opened the season 7-0 but fell flat down the stretch, losing its final five games by an average of 19.4 ppg while getting outgained in all five games and by an average of 131.4 ypg so it was a bad stumble. The Bulls are playing this game on their home field but that means little when it comes to bowl games teams as teams that play on their home field are just 16-13 over the last 19 seasons. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Marshall closed the season much better by winning five of its last seven games and even though it did close with a 21-point loss at Virginia Tech, it was only outgained by two yards as penalties and turnovers did it in. The Thundering Herd has just one loss in a game they were the favorite in, and it came on the road by just two points at Southern Mississippi. They are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against home underdogs after having lost five or six out of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 65-24 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (215) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Frisco Bowl Winner. San Diego St. closed its regular season with a thud as it dropped its final three games while getting substantially outgained in all three of those as well. The Aztecs had won seven of eight games prior to that following a season opening loss at Stanford so they head into the postseason with negative momentum. The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Ohio meanwhile comes in with a ton of momentum as it has won five of its last six games while going 7-2 over its last nine games. The Bobcats lost their first game of the season against Virginia by 14 points but their last three losses have come by a combined nine points. Additionally, Ohio has outgained each of its last six opponents. The Bobcats are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against a team allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 52-24 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (213) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Boca Raton Bowl Winner. Motivation is a big factor in these early season bowl games and UAB should have plenty of it tonight. Last year, in their first season back after a two-year absence, the Blazers made it to the Bahamas Bowl only to get crushed by Ohio 41-6 and they want to make amends for that misstep. This game is about two terrific defenses UAB allowed the 11th fewest yards in the nation at 300.2 ypg, while Northern Illinois was not far behind ay 31st with 347.8 ypg. We give the edge to UAB based on not just the better numbers but having played in a tougher conference on top of that. The Blazers won and covered for us in the C-USA Championship despite getting outgained for the second straight game against Middle Tennessee St. the offense is highlighted by a potent rushing attack led by Spencer Brown who has rushed for 1,152 yards and 16 touchdowns. Northern Illinois is much weaker on offense as it averages just 325 ypg. While the Blazers were a terrific cover option, going 8-3 ATS in their final 11 games, the Huskies have covered just five of their previous 18 games on grass and are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl appearances. 10* (212) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Halfway through the season, it looked as though the Panthers were going to make some noise as they were 6-2 and trailed New Orleans by just one game. Then came a five-game losing streak and now Carolina is fighting for its playoff life. While things are looking bleak, the Panthers have not been playing bad as they have outgained each of their last four opponents with all of the losses coming by just one possession. The schedule has not been on their side either with four of the last five games coming on the road. The Saints have not exactly been tearing things up of late as they are averaging just 262 ypg over their last three games and have been outgained in two of those while outgaining the Buccaneers by only 19 yards last week. This is the third straight road game for New Orleans which is never an ideal situation and the Saints close out with two home games. The Saints have been favored by more than a field goal on the road four times and while they have covered three of those, those were all against teams out of playoff contention. Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg and here, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (332) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Pittsburgh had won six straight games but it has lost its last three games and is just a half-game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North. There are five seven-win teams in the AFC so winning out could be the possibility for making the playoffs and it starts against a nemesis. The Steelers are 0-5 in their past five games against the Patriots, including a 27-24 loss at Heinz Field last December that prevented Pittsburgh from earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. The Patriots are coming off the brutal loss against Miami and they are now a half-game behind Houston for the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. While this game means a lot for them as well, knowing they have the Bills and Jets at home to close the season helps. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (328) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Cowboys have turned their season around as a 1-3 stretch has been followed up by a five-game winning streak which has propelled Dallas into first place in the NFC East. They have a two-game lead but hit the road after a three-game homestand and the Cowboys are just 2-4 on the road compared to being 6-1 at home. The Colts bounced back for us last week as they defeated the Texans, snapping their nine-game winning streak. They are tied with Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but are currently out based on the tiebreaker making this a must win. While it could be considered a letdown spot, Indianapolis is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is another situation where we will be going against a team that should be very unprepared because of a coaching change. Former Appalachian St. Head Coach Scot Satterfield left for the Louisville job with his two coordinators so interim coach Mark Ivey, assistant head and defensive line coach steps in. The Mountaineers won their first ever SBC Championship in a 30-19 win over Louisiana and while we give them credit in playing Penn St. tough in their season opener, the level of competition was bad the rest of the way. How bad? They were favored in all of their final 11 games by at least 10.5 points so based on the number here, Appalachian St. is taking a step up in competition. We played against Middle Tennessee St. in the C-USA Championship as it lost to UAB by two points despite outgaining the Blazers by 91 total yards. The Blue Raiders closed the season by outgaining each of their last five opponents and by an average of 145.4 ypg and making that more impressive is that they were underdog in two of those games. Three of their five losses came against SEC teams, with all three going to a bowl game including No. 5 Georgia and No. 14 Kentucky, so they played a much tougher schedule and the other two losses came by just five points combined and also coming against bowl teams. Middle Tennessee St. is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Here, we play on bowl teams who lost their conference championship game by seven or less points going up against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better and not off a win by more than 18 points. This situation is 19-1 ATS (95 percent) since 1992. 10* (209) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. As a situational handicapper for the most part, this one sets up very well and while this number does not look ideal, it is based on the talent gap and in this case, it is huge. Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Colts and now sits two games ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South with a couple marginal tests remaining. While the Texans have had some close road games, five of the six came against teams still in the playoff hunt and the lone exception resulted in a 13-point win at Jacksonville. Houston is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. The Jets snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo last week thanks to three Bills turnovers. New York has been outgained in seven of its last eight games including differentials in its last four games of -252, -160, -123 and -120. The Jets are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and that has been the big downfall as the defense has at least been average. It could be even worse this week as New York could be without its leading rusher and second leading receiver. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Houston Texans

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. This line has come down substantially with the main factor being Utah St. losing the entire coaching staff as head coach Matt Wells, offensive coordinator Dave Yost, and defensive coordinator Keith Patterson are all headed to Texas Tech so co-defensive coordinator Frank Maile will be in charge on Saturday. While the number has come down, it is still above the key number seven and that is significant for North Texas which will be out to bounce back from consecutive bowl losses, especially for the seniors that want to go out with a victory. The Mean Green finished the season 9-3 and while they closed on a 0-5 ATS run, they were favored in four of those including three by double digits. The three losses this season were all by one possession and even more important, North Texas outgained every opponent this season, the only team in the country to do so. It won the yardage battle by 113.3 and that is significant, especially when dealing with an underappreciated underdog. Utah St. had a special season where it went 10-2 that included a 10-game winning streak bookended by losses against Michigan St. and Boise St. The problem is that it is hard to determine how good the Aggies really as only two of those 10 wins came against teams competing in a bowl game. Overall, they played the No. 14 ranked schedule in the country, easily the softest in the MWC. The Aggies are 4-15 ATS against teams with a winning record and we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better off a road loss against a conference rival, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (201) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Chargers do look appealing in this spot based on this being one of the best opportunities to snap their nine-game losing streak against Kansas City. But, there is plenty of motivation on the Chiefs side as well as they can wrap up the division with a win and likely clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City is 6-0 at home and welcome the Chargers for their second meeting this season after winning in Los Angeles in the season opener. The last two games have been closer than expected but going back, the Chiefs have won the yardage battle in each of their last five games and by an average of 83.8 ypg. The one aspect where home field has made a huge difference is the defense as Kansas City allows 34.1 ppg on the road while giving up just 18.7 ppg at home. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of their last 10 games with the lone loss coming against Denver in a game they lost on a last second field goal. They are playing some of the best football in the NFL but this is a time of year where it has struggled and it is no coincidence. The Chargers are 3-8 in their last 11 games in December and they have lost four straight outright on the road outdoors. Injuries could play a big role here as well as Los Angeles will likely be without running back Melvin Gordon once again as he is doubtful and a game-time decision while Kansas City will be getting defensive back Eric Berry on the field for the first time this season. He we play on home favorites after having won three out of their last four games going up against an opponent, after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Vikings are 2-3-1 on the road and while that looks unimpressive, the schedule has been brutal by playing three divisional leaders as well as the Packers and Eagles. Minnesota is coming off a 24-10 loss in New England last Sunday and being a high profile game, most will remember that and carry that recency bias into this week. Additionally, the Seahawks have won three straight games including a 27-point win over the 49ers last week. Impressive on the scoreboard but not impressive in the stats as Seattle was outgained by 121 total yards and was fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0. While Seattle has had the better ground game this season overall, we could see a flip tonight with Minnesota possessing the better rush game. The Vikings have talked all week of wanting to run it more, and especially to get running back Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.2 ypc, more touches. And given that Seattle comes into the game still ranked tied for last in rushing yards allowed per carry at 5.1, it makes sense for the Vikings to try to establish the run. on the other side, the Seahawks are a run-first team, but the only win they have by more than three points over a top-15 run defense is the Cowboys and that was only due to winning the turnover battle 3-0 as they were outrushed 166-113. Seattle will have to go against a Minnesota defense that allows just 3.7 ypc, fifth in the NFL, and has not allowed a run all season of longer than 21 yards compared to every other team that has allowed at least one run of 28 yards. Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by 21 points or more over a division rival while the Vikings are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (133) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Eagles made it two straight wins with their win over Washington on Monday night as they caught a break with Colt McCoy having to exit early with a broken leg. Philadelphia is just one game behind Dallas in the NFC East and this is a must won considering the Cowboys won the first meeting as a loss here would realistically put the Eagles three games back. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Dallas has won four straight games starting with that win over the Eagles and culminating with a win over the Saints last Thursday. Dallas has the edge with time off from playing on a Thursday but in a divisional game, we will grab the value. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-11 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (129) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. We played against the Colts last week and while we were confident in the Jaguars defense, we did not expect a shutout. Now Andrew Luck will be out to bounce back which he has done the majority of time in the past. He is an incredible 16-2 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss if his team is .333 or better. The Colts are not in must win mode but they are close as a loss here will keep them at least a game out of the second Wild Card spot. Houston has won nine straight games and while we played against the Texans last week and lost, the dominations are still not there as they were outgained by the Browns with a 4-0 turnover advantage being the difference. Despite being as hot as they are, we feel the Texans are overvalued here as a field goal should be the line in this divisional matchup. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (107) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Army/Navy Enforcer. A historic rivalry will renew for the 119th time when Army and Navy square off on Saturday afternoon. Army has a chance to put up its most victories in program history with a win here and a win in its bowl game but this will not be easy despite the disparity in records. Navy had a horrendous season as it comes in 3-9 and will not make a bowl game for the first time since 2011. This is the first time in 16 years that Army is the favorite in this series which shows how these teams have gone in opposite directions. Only one Army-Navy game in the last seven years has been decided by more than a touchdown and that was with a lot of bad Army teams on the field so now that a bad Navy team will be taking the field, one should not shy away from the Midshipmen as the rivalry takes precedence. While the Navy defense has been gashed this season, Army has not been much better as the Midshipmen are allowing 6.7 yppl but Army is not far behind, allowing 5.9 yppl. With the defenses giving up chunk yards, that makes the underdog always a threat. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21-28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28-34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. 10* (103) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Tennessee snapped a two-game slide with a come-from-behind win over the Jets last Sunday as the Titans scored the game winning touchdown with 36 seconds left. They outgained the Jets by 123 total yards and the defense did its job once again as they did not allow and offensive touchdown. Obviously, the Jets offense is garbage but the same can be said about the opponent tonight as well. Tennessee is ranked No. 10 and No. 6 in total defense and scoring defense respectively and will square off against another backup quarterback. Jacksonville is coming off a win over the Colts but not too much can be read into that as it was outgained overall and was bailed out by some questionable Indianapolis moves by taking points off the board and eventually getting stopped on fourth down and not kicking a field goal on another fourth down which resulted in a sack and a turnover on downs. The Jaguars defense played at a high level after a stretch of poor showing and we suspect a reversal to that tonight as they hit the road where they are 1-4. The Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Eagles lost five of seven games culminating in a 48-7 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Things appeared bleak last week as the Eagles faced deficits of 12-0 and 19-3 but wound up rallying for a 25-22 win over the Giants. This may seem like the turning point for Philadelphia but it has not gotten there yet as there are issues on both sides. Washington lost quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury and Colt McCoy got thrust into the starting lineup against the Cowboys on a short week. Now, he is coming off a long week after having played on Thanksgiving and while he definitely showed rust 11 days ago, he is in a much better spot now going from facing the No. 5 ranked defense to now facing the No. 24 ranked defense. Washington is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (379) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Game of the Week. The early line on this was Cincinnati -2.5 prior to last Sunday and there is no way Andy Dalton is worth 7.5 points so the value is squarely on the Bengals here. Jeff Driskel was decent last week after coming in and with a full week of preparation and having A.L. Green back, he is not a significant downgrade. The Broncos are coming off consecutive impressive wins over the Chargers and Steelers but what is not shown in the scores is that they were outgained by 154 and 219 total yards respectively. The only other road win for Denver was at 2-9 Arizona. Denver is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games while the Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 68-27 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (366) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. There has never been a more dominant regular season in the history of college football as Alabama is the first team since 1888 to win all of its games by at least 20 points which makes the Tide very enticing to bettors laying less than two touchdowns. However, this is easily their biggest test of the season. Jake Fromm is 23-3 as a starter and his completion percentage of 69.1 percent is on pace to set a school record (67.9 Hunter Mason in 2014). He's 161-for-233 for 2,236 yards, with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions for a season passer rating of 179.4. Georgia seemed to find its niche after losing at LSU 36-16 as the running game has been potent. Sophomore running back D'Andre Swift has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games, and along with Elijah Holyfield hoping to match Nick Chubb and Sony Michel as the Bulldogs' second 1,000-yard tandem in as many years. This presents a problem as Alabama went 0-5 ATS last season against teams that averaged more than 200 rushing ypg, and it is 1-3 ATS when facing such teams this season. The Georgia defense is the second best stop unit that the Tide will face as they were held to 24 points against Mississippi St. Both the Alabama offense and defense have been outstanding and there is no reason to get into that. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs that are averaging 225 or more rushing ypg after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (315) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Game of the Week. The Bears are coming off a 33-21 win over Colorado and have won four of their past five games led by a defense that allowed 42.6 ppg just two years ago under Sonny Dykes but are allowing half of that this season including just 14.2 ppg over their last five games. The Bears lead the PAC 12 with 17 interceptions and rank among the nation’s top 20 in fewest passing yards allowed, pass efficiency defense and total defense. This is no fluke as head coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive genius and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is very sharp as well. Stanford started the season 4-0 but has lost four of its last seven games and while it has won its last two games, those came against 2-10 Oregon St. and 3-9 UCLA. The offense has been pretty solid despite the injuries and struggles of running back Bryce Love but the Cardinal are going to struggle against this surging defense. Stanford has had a dominant defense in recent years, but the Cardinal ranks ninth in the PAC 12 in total defense this season.as they are having a very down year which can help the Bears which have not met expectations. The last time California beat Stanford was 2009, which finished off a run of seven wins in eight years against Stanford and this is the best opportunity to end that. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation 52-18 ATS (74.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (334) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our MAC Championship Winner. Both defenses are pretty much even as they are two of the best stop units in the conference and the difference in this game will be the Buffalo offense. The Bulls are averaging over 100 more ypg than Northern Illinois while averaging over two touchdowns more on the scoreboard. The problem for the Huskies defense here is the Buffalo balance as it averages 200.8 ypg on the ground and 219.1 ypg through the air. Quarterback Tyree Jackson earned MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors after throwing for 2,605 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Jackson also has seven rushing scores over 41 carries in 2018. One factor some will look at is experience as for the for the Huskies, they have won the West Division seven of the last nine years and are making their eighth appearance in the title game (the most of any team in the MAC). Meanwhile, Buffalo is here for just the second time but these experience gaps mean little. Two situations are in play. First, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost two out of their last three games going up against an opponent after having won four out of their last five games. This situation is 49-22 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 16-21 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 64-27 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. The Saints are humming along with 10 straight wins and nine straight covers so the fact they are over a touchdown favorite here is no surprise. Things were looking bleak for Dallas after a home loss against Tennessee but it has won and covered three straight games since then and this is the perfect primetime matchup for the Cowboys to show they are still relevant. The New Orleans offense continues to light it up but the Cowboys defense is soaring and has allowed the third-fewest points (213), fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,030), fifth-fewest first downs (207) and seventh-fewest total yards (3,642). The Cowboys offense has improved drastically since receiver Amari Cooper joined the team. That was made clear by his performance last week against the Redskins as he had 180 yards, including touchdown catches of 40 and 90 yards. His presence is now big to keep the balance going. Ezekiel Elliott overtook Todd Gurley for NFL lead last week (1,074 yards rushing to 1,043). He has 18 100-yard games since joining league in 2016 and no other player has more than 12. He's averaging 161 scrimmage yards with four TDs in past four games and while the Saints rushing defense is the best in the league, a big reason for that is they have seen the fewest rushes against them. Here, we play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 106-63 (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Houston is the hottest team in the AFC with seven consecutive wins and it returns home following a pair of two-point road victories. The Texans have been far from dominating however as four of those wins came by three points or less and the other three came against Buffalo, Jacksonville and Miami which all have losing records. Houston is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by three points or less while going 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in its 10 divisional games with Marcus Mariota when coming off a loss. Before the Titans were obliterated at Indianapolis last week, they defeated Dallas by 14 and New England by 24. In those two games, Mariota threw four touchdown passes, ran for another and didn't suffer an interception so the fact he is playing tonight is important. Until last week, the Titans had not given up more than 27 points in any game and that 27 came in Week One in Miami. This defense is legit. Two weeks ago, the Titans used several blitz packages to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line and they will do the same against Houston. The Texans offensive line is much worse as the unit is ranked No. 24 in the league. Going back, the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (273) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Since beating the Eagles on 9/24, Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 with the only win coming in overtime against Cleveland. However, the Buccaneers have won the yardage battle in six of those eight games as turnover and special teams have been a difference. The 49ers have found new life with Nick Mullens at quarterback but now he is making his first career road start and while Tampa Bay is not the most hostile of environments, it is on the road nonetheless. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Seattle snapped a two-game slide with a win over Green Bay last Thursday and is now just a game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Seahawks are a respectable 3-3 on the road but while they are 3-1 against non-playoff teams, they lost both games against the Rama and Bears, two teams going into the postseason. Carolina is coming off another frustrating loss on the road where they have just one victory and that took a three-touchdown fourth quarter to accomplish. Carolina is 5-0 at home and falls into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive overs, averaging 23-27 ppg going up against teams allowing 23-27 ppg. This situation is 36-14 ATS (72 percent) since 1983. 10* (264) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. The Holy War has been dominated by Utah s it has won seven straight meetings in the series but it has not been dominating as of those seven wins, six have come by a touchdown or less. That makes this line very intriguing and even more so considering the Utes are starting freshman Jason Shelley at quarterback. It is hard to ignore the fact that he is just 33-65 (50.7 percent) since taking over. BYU has won two straight games to become bowl eligible and it is currently playing its best football, having outgained each of its last five opponents. Three of the five losses have been by five points or less and going back, the Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Here, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a home win by 17 points or more going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (183) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the USC TROJANS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. There is lot at stake for both teams Saturday as Notre Dame needs to win in order to remain undefeated and cement its shot in the top four of the CFP while USC needs a win to become bowl eligible. The Trojans have lost four of their last five games with two of those coming at home but those two losses were decided by a combined four points. This is the biggest number USC has seen in this series since 1996. The Irish were impressive last week against a Syracuse team many though had a chance for the upset but it was not even close. Notre Dame has stifles opponents early as it has jumped on teams in each half, outscoring opponents 112-23 in the first quarter and 93-45 in the third quarter, which is what USC has to avoid. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season averaging 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing 4.8 to 5.6 yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (226) USC Trojans

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. It is no secret what is at stake for Central Florida which has won 23 straight games and is looking to stake its claim for a spot in the CFP. The Knights are coming off three straight home games so hitting the road for the first time in a month is a challenge. South Florida opened the season 7-0 but has lost four straight games, three of those coming on the road. The lone home loss was against Tulane where the Bulls were outgained by just two yards, won the first down battle 27-17 but turnovers and penalties did them in. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better off three straight wins against conference rivals, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (134) South Florida Bulls

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Friday Enforcer. After opening the season 4-0, the Hokies have dropped four straight games, all by double-digits, so there is a lot on the line here and next week. Virginia Tech has not missed the postseason since 1992 but can keep that streak alive with a win here and a victory in the makeup game against Marshall next week. Virginia is already bowl eligible at 7-4 but we are not sure it is this much better than the Hokies as this is a very aggressive line with the Cavaliers being favored for only the second time in this series in the last 14 years. Here, we play on teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (140) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Thanksgiving Day Enforcer. Atlanta has dropped two straight games to fall to 4-6 in the season and are now a full five games behind New Orleans in the NFC South. While winning the division is almost out of the question at this point, the Falcons are still well alive in the Wild Card race as they trail Carolina by just two games but time is running out. We are more concerned with the spread here however as Atlanta is getting close to a full touchdown more than the Eagles got last week and there is not much difference between the Falcons and Eagles. New Orleans has won nine straight games while covering its last eight and the Saints are laying their biggest number of the season as the looks have been getting killed by New Orleans backers. The offense is humming along as the Saints are now averaging 37.8 ppg which leads the league but this is not the time to be laying this big of a number, especially against an Atlanta offense that can keep up. The Saints are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a double-digit win going up against an opponent off consecutive losses while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites off a non-divisional game and playing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, we play against favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS for our CFB Thanksgiving Enforcer. The Rebels come into this year's Egg Bowl on a four-game losing streak and has failed to cover their last five games while going 0-7 ATS against conference opponents and they should br chomping at the bit after a touchdown reversal and losing in overtime to Vanderbilt last week. They lost despite outgaining the Commodores by 191 total yards and at 5-6, this is a must win to become bowl eligible. A lot of time in rivalry games, records can to be tossed out the window and that should be the case here with everything on the line. The environment of senior night should also galvanize the Rebel players. Mississippi St. is coming off a blowout victory against Arkansas as it bounced back from a loss to Alabama. While the defense has been the strength of the team all season, the Bulldogs offense as been up and down as they have scored seven points or less in four of their conference games. On the other side, the defense should be tested by Mississippi quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, who ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards. A.J. Brown is his favorite target and ranks fifth in the nations with 81 receptions, 1,259 yards and six touchdowns. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they are part of a negative contrarian situation as we play on teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (114) Mississippi Rebels

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. We won with Miami Ohio last week and we are backing the RedHawks again this week as they look to win their third straight game and become bowl eligible. Miami has won four of its last six games to improve to 5-2 in the MAC with one of those losses coming by a single point against Western Michigan. While the offense entered last week on a roll, it was the defense that got it done against the Huskies and we expect the defense the bring it again tonight. Ball St. defeated Western Michigan last week in what was its bowl game as the Cardinals have already been handed seven losses and coming off its last home game of the season should provide a letdown Tuesday. The Cardinals have just one road win on the season and that came by a single point against 1-10 Central Michigan. Ball St. is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game with the losses coming by an average of over 25 ppg. Meanwhile, Miami has covered four straight games following a win and it falls into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a road win against a conference rival. This situation is 73-35 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles and while that benefits the Rams faithful, it helps Kansas City more than anything based on a betting perspective. The Rams were -3 on the neutral field and now are just a half-point higher after the game being moved to their home field and the number has nor moved at some places. While Los Angeles opened the season with three straight covers, it has gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as the defense has let opposing teams hang around and that is not an ideal situation for tonight. The Rams have allowed 31 or more points in four of their last seven games and an average of 27.9 ppg over that stretch after giving up just 12 ppg in their first three games. The Chiefs defense has been scrutinized all year but it has improved as the season has progressed and while this will be its biggest test it has faced, trending in the right direction is key. The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games while Kansas City has covered six straight road games following two or more consecutive wins. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (473) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Two of the worst teams in the NFL square off in Arizona and these teams should be a pickem on a neutral field which gives us a ton of value on the Raiders. Oakland has dropped five straight games and while the offense has been moving the ball, it has not been putting up points as the Raiders have scored a total of 22 points in four of those games. Arizona does possess an underrated defense but it is the other side of the ball where Oakland has a big edge. The Cardinals are second to last in the NFL in offensive efficiency and they are also second to last in scoring offense, averaging just 13.8 ppg. Arizona has outgained only one opponent all season and that was by just 54 yards in an 18-15 win over San Francisco. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games but all were as underdogs and they are now favored for just the second time all season and by the largest amount. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (469) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Arizona has been all over the map this season but it is still in the hunt in the PAC 12 South as it is 4-3 and trails Utah by just a half-game. The Wildcats head to Pullman riding a two-game winning streak and they have put together their best three-game stretch of the season as they have outgained their last three opponents by 438 total yards. Washington St. is looking toward a big bowl game as it has just one loss this season and that was by only three points against USC. The big game is next week however as the Apple Cup will decide PAC 12 North. Arizona falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (377) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our AAC Game of the Year. First place in the AAC East and a possible trip to the championship game is on the line as the Bearcats look to hand Central Florida its first loss since 2016. Cincinnati has been outgained only twice and by a total of eight yards. The Knights have been cruising along but they have leaked some oil of late as they have been outgained in three of their last four games. Here, we play against home teams after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (353) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. (originally posted incorrectly as Northwestern) With the win over Iowa last week and earlier wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, Northwestern wrapped up the Big Ten West Division making the final two games of the regular season pretty meaningless. The Wildcats are 4-0 on the road but is by far their most vulnerable spot away from home. Minnesota checks in at 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible and with the rivalry game at Wisconsin next week, this is the best chance. Here, we play against road underdogs off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (330) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Many picked SMU to finish last in the AAC West and with three straight losses of 23 points or more, things were looking bleak. Then the Sonny Dykes offense started to click and the Mustangs have won five of their last seven games to become one win away from going to a second straight bowl game. The losses came against 9-0 Central Florida and 9-1 Cincinnati, the latter coming in overtime. It seems as though SMU continues to get no respect as it is a home underdog for the fifth time in five home games against FBS teams and in this particular matchup, they are just one game behind Memphis overall but are one game better in the division so a win here and next week against 2-8 Tulsa sends them to the C-USA Championship. Memphis has won two straight games to move back over .500 but it has been a disappointing season for the most part as the Tigers were expected to win the C-USA West. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and we have two positive situations on our side. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 390 to 440 ypg going up against a defense allowing between 390 to 440 ypg, after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent since 1992. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (316) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. North Texas has some unfinished business to tend to tonight and laying a short price should come with an easy cover. The Mean Green played Florida Atlantic twice last season, once in the regular season and the other in the C-USA Championship and lost both of those by a combined 62 points. Both of those games took place in Boca Raton however and now North Texas has a chance to avenge those games playing on its home field where it is 4-1. This is a sneaky good team that has had some tough breaks as the Mean Green have lost their three games this season by a combined 13 points despite winning the yardage battle in all three of those and overall, they have outyarded every opponent this season. Their +169 scoring differential is second best in the entire conference. Florida Atlantic has had a disappointing season by its standards as it still needs one more victory to become bowl eligible and that will likely come next week at home against Charlotte. The rebuilt offense has been inconsistent from the start and while the defense was supposed to lead the way with 10 returning starters, the Owls have regressed in a big way. All four road losses have been by double-digits and we expect that to continue tonight. 10* (314) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This line opened at 2.5 and stayed there until last night but now it has climbed to 3 at most places which is what we were hoping for on the Green Bay side. Recent series history is swaying the public onto Seattle as the home team has won seven straight meetings and coupled with the Packers 0-4 record on the road, this is going to be a contrarian play. While the quarterbacks are the story here, this one could come down to the running game. Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense with 152.2 ypg but Green Bay leads the league with 5.2 ypc so anyone that says the Seahawks have the edge there is mistaken. The total yardage number is inflated because Seattle is second in the league in rushing attempts and breaking down the offensive lines shows Green Bay with a massive edge as it is No. 4 in the Adjusted Line Yards formula with Seattle coming in at No. 15. Taking that a step further shows the Seahawks are third to last in the league in pass protection. The home field advantage for the Seahawks has declined as they are just 5-6 since the start of last season and they have been outgained in all three home games this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. With the season wining down, games become critical for some teams whether it be for bowl implications or championship game berths and that is the case here for Wednesday. From a motivational standpoint, there is no advantage either way as Miami needs to win its final two games to become bowl eligible and Northern Illinois needs to win to take home the MAC West and secure a trip to the MAC Championship. While the Huskies possess defense, this will be one of the better offenses they have seen. While Miami averages just 28.2 ppg, that was due to a slow start as over their last seven games, the RedHawks are averaging 35.9 ppg. They have gone 4-3 over this stretch and could feasibly already be bowl eligible as two of those losses came by just one point, including one in overtime. Northern Illinois has picked up its game after a 1-3 start as it has won six straight games and while we played on the Huskies a week ago, circumstances are much different. Four of those wins were by a single possession and in those six games, the Huskies were outgained in three of those. Overall, the strength of schedule is pretty much the same for both sides and they are both nearly dead even in scoring differential making this line overinflated but the public is still overwhelmingly on the home side. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Tuesday Star Attraction. After a 4-0 start in the MAC, including three wins on the road, Western Michigan has dropped its last two games and neither of which were close as it fell by 27 and 45 points. The Broncos are now two games behind Northern Illinois in the MAC West and they can still compete in the MAC Championship if they win out as they play the Huskies next week and hope Northern Illinois loses tomorrow against Miami. Those games ended an overall six-game winning streak as well as a six-game string of winning the total yardage. In this particular matchup, the Broncos own all three yppl advantages and they have a chance to get the high-powered offenses back in gear after being stalled the last two games. Western Michigan is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. Ball St. lost its last game which was Halloween night and that eliminated the Cardinals from a chance at a bowl game as they fell to 3-7. They won their first game of the season against Central Connecticut St. from the FCS and the two conference wins came against 2-8 Kent St. and 1-10 Central Michigan. Ball St. is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games against teams averaging 6.25 or more yppl while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, we play on road teams off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (301) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Green Bay is coming off a brutal two-game roadtrip where it lost to the Rams and Patriots to fall to 3-4-1 on the season but it is just a game and a half back in the NFC North. This is a must win for the Packers however as they have to venture out on the road in two more tough environments after this in Seattle and Minnesota. This game sets up similar to the one against the Bills as Green Bay was coming of a bad road loss against Washington and bounced back as expected. Miami is not as bad as the Bills many will argue but the Dolphins are not far off. They have been outgained in seven of their last eight games including two wins against the Jets where they won the yardage battle by 105 and 107 yards. Turnovers have been the difference that has kept them above water. Now Miami heads to Green Bay where temperatures will be in the 20s at gametime. Brock Osweiler will be making his fifth start for the Dolphins and while he is 2-2, the offense has gotten worse moving forward especially last week where the only touchdown came on an interception return. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game. Additionally, Miami is 1-15 ATS in its last 16 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (262) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Saints are coming off a monster win last week against the Rams making a case from them now being the team to beat in the NFC. A big win at home like that can certainly produce a letdown and on top of that, they head home after this to face the Eagles next week and then play the Falcons four days later on Thanksgiving night. Despite a 7-1 record, New Orleans has not been dominating as it has outgained opponents just by 14.2 ypg. But that is not going to stop the public from loading up on the Saints especially with a Cincinnati team that the public thinks it is in disarray. The Bengals blew a 21-point lead against Tampa Bay and needed a last second field goal to pull out the win. They will be without A.J. Green for a couple games while the defense is on pace to break NFL records for yardage allowed so there is no way Cincinnati can keep up right. That is why they play the game and this is a big game for the Bengals as they are now a game behind the Steelers and they have a pair of divisional games on deck. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, we play against road teams off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation s 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our ACC Game of the Month. This is arguably the final real test for Clemson with this being the final road game of the season as the Tigers close with home games against Duke and South Carolina. Clearly Clemson is clearly one of the top team in college football and look to be peaking at the right time with four straight blowout wins but those came against some very weak defenses. While the Tigers defense has also played exceptional, they will be challenged by Boston College which possesses great balance on offense. The Eagles are led by running back AJ Dillon who leads the ACC with 128.1 rushing ypg and while he opened the week as questionable with an ankle injury, he has been upgraded to probable. Quarterback Anthony Brown is fourth in the ACC with a 141.4 passer rating so Clemson cannot load the box. On the other side, Boston College is ranked No. 24 in the nation, allowing just 4.83 yppl and has been playing its best football of late with three straight victories in which it has allowed no more than 21 points. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points coming off two straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (122) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. BYU and Massachusetts are both still alive for bowl berths but neither can make a mistake. While the Cougars can still lose one of their final three games, the season finale is at Utah so that is likely the game that goes down which makes this one extremely important. BYU has lost its last two games against Northern Illinois and Boise St. by a combined six points and it won the yardage battle in both of those. The Cougars would like some payback as well after losing to the Minutemen last season 16-10 in their home finale. Massachusetts has kept its hopes alive with two straight win and it cannot afford another loss as it needs to win its final two games. Considering the Minutemen are at Georgia week, that is not going to happen. The two recent wins were not impressive as they came against Liberty and Connecticut, two of the three worse defenses in the nation. Prior to that, the Minutemen were outgained in their other seven games against FBS competition. Massachusetts will be facing much stiffer competition here as the Cougars are allowing just 334.1 ypg on defense and only 5.1 yppl. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. This could very well be a preview of the MWC Championship which would be the second straight season Boise St. and Fresno St. would meet for the title. In order for that to occur, this is a must win for the Broncos as they would fall two games behind Utah St. with a loss (the Aggies play San Jose St. this week as a 31-point favorite) while Fresno St. has some wiggle room as it faces San Diego St. next week which will determine the champion. Boise St. has won four straight games and is 3-1 at home to move to 111-8 since 2000. The Broncos have not been a true home underdog since 2001 and you know they have heard that and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Fresno St. has been humming along with seven straight wins led by one of the best defenses around. The numbers speak for themselves as Fresno St. has allowed just 36 points in five conference games and it is now ranked No. 2 in the country in scoring defense (12.3 ppg), No. 2 in red zone defense (56.3 percent) and No. 2 in interceptions (15). This is skewed however as those five games came against teams that are a combined 9-18 in the conference. There is one area of concern as the offensive line is hurting with one tackle out and another tackle questionable for Friday. The Bulldogs have covered every game during their winning streak and that is playing into this line for sure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (114) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. The Steelers have won four straight games and are going to be a very popular public play at home on Thursday. This line was hit hard by Carolina money early and has come down but it is still above the key number for a team that is arguably better at this point. This could be considered a tough spot for the Steelers as they are coming off three straight divisional games. While the popular thinking is that the Steelers are a dominant team at home, they are just 2-7 over their last nine games at Heinz Field. Carolina has won three straight and five of its last six games with the lone loss coming at Washington in a game it should have won as it outgained the Redskins but lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Panthers are ranked No. 17 in total offense but a truer indication is that they are No. 5 in offensive efficiency which is a big factor in this matchup as the Steelers are ranked No. 21 in defensive efficiency. Taking both sides into account, Carolina is No. 3 in total efficiency while Pittsburgh is No. 11 and that is a very significant differential. Carolina is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in their previous game. The Panthers fall into a situation where we play against favorites that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Wake Forest needs to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible for a third straight season under head coach Dave Clawson. At this point, that seems unlikely. The Demon Deacons are 4-5 and things are not looking good after losing quarterback Sam Hartman for the season against Syracuse on Saturday. Former starter Kendall Hinton, who was moved to the slot, or Jamie Newman will get the start so the offense is going to be taking a step back. The Wolfpack are ranked No. 38 in the country in total defense, and that would be even better if NC State did not already get rolled over by the high-powered offenses of Clemson and Syracuse and Wake Forest is not in that category. While the Wolfpack are already bowl eligible, there is a greater goal as winning out would get them to 10 wins and a high profile bowl game and this would be just the second time in school history where they would have double-digits wins. The last four games are all against losing teams. NC State senior quarterback Ryan Finley enters Thursday night leading the ACC in passing yards, completion percentage and yards per attempt. He has thrown for 2,490 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 8.53 ypa on the season. This is not good news for the Demon Deacons as they are ranked 12th in the ACC in passing defense as they are giving up 272.6 ypg which is good for No. 115 in the nation. Not only are the Demon Deacons allowing a lot of yards, but they have also given up 20 passing touchdowns and have picked off opposing quarterbacks only three times. NC State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against passing defenses allowing 250 or more ypg while the Demon Deacons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (110) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. It was a 1-3 start for Northern Illinois but the Huskies have caught fire by winning their last five games and are in great shape to make it back to the MAC Championship after a two-year absence. Four of those wins have come on the road where they have played six games compared to just three at home. The offense has picked it up after a very slow start where Northern Illinois failed to reach 300 total yards in the first four games and have since averaged 362.8 ypg over their last five games. Payback will be in order as well as the Huskies have lost to Toledo the last two years after winning six straight meetings. Going back, Northern Illinois is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after outrushing its last opponent by 150 or more yards. Toledo is still in the hunt in the MAC West as a win here would put it a game back with two games left following consecutive wins but the Rockets have struggled on the road with a 1-2 record and they are getting a shorter than anticipated number. While they do possess a winning record, the Rockets have been outgained in six of eight games by FBS opponents and it has not been close as they are getting outyarded by an average of 59.5 ypg. The problem is the defense as Toledo is allowing 450.7 ypg which is No. 109 in the country. The Rockets are getting gashed through the air, giving up 279.4 ypg which is No. 118 and while the rushing defense is better, it is still not good. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win and Northern Illinois falls into a positive situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 26-7 (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (106) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. Both the AFC South and NFC East divisions are wide open so a win for either side would be huge. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those could have been won as they were by a point apiece while the other was a shutout loss at home in horrendous weather. Tennessee is 1-3 away from home but those three losses have come by a combined nine points. Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after one or more consecutive losses. The Cowboys are coming off a loss in Washington prior to its bye week and on the season, the home team is 7-0 in Dallas games which is a big reason this line is inflated. While the big news out of Dallas was the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper, there was bigger news that nobody has talked about and that was it fired offensive line coach Paul Alexander and assistant offensive line coach Marc Colombo has been promoted to Alexander's position. The Cowboys also hired longtime NFL offensive line coach Hudson Houck as an advisor. this is not a good thing midway through the season. This offensive line has been pretty much below average all season and while Ezekiel Elliott is having a fine season, Dak Prescott has been sacked 23 times which is tied for 13th most in the league but that is through just seven games. The Cowboys 10.04 percent sack rate is fourth worst in the NFL. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 58-26 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Game of the Year. Baltimore has bottomed out after a 3-1 start as it has lost three of its last four games to move to 4-4 and trails Pittsburgh by a game and a half in the AFC North. Three of the losses have come by a combined five points so the Ravens are better than the record shows and their poor game last week against the Panthers can be attributed to a possible lookahead to this week. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS under John Harbaugh after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game. The Steelers are trending the other way as they have won three straight after a 1-2-1 start. These recent runs on both sides are keeping this number lower than it should be as lines under three are available across the industry. Pittsburgh is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 356-253 ATS (58.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Falcons are coming off a much needed bye week but this team is still a mess defensively. Injuries have played a big role and on the season, Atlanta is ranked second to last in the NFL in defensive efficiency and it is one of only three teams allowing 30 or more ppg on the season. While the Falcons have won two straight games, they were outgained in both of those and they have had the luxury of playing five of their last six games at home. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Redskins are in first place in the NFC East by a game and a half over the Eagles and two games over the Cowboys. Unlike Atlanta, the defense is leading the way as Washington is ranked No. 5 in scoring defense and has allowed 17 points or less in four of its last five games. Washington is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Here, we play on home favorites that are outrushing opponents by 40 or more ypg going up against a team that is +/- 30 in rushing ypg differential, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 103-57 AT (64.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our MWC Game of the Year. Hawaii opened the season 6-1 but has since lost its last three games and none of those were close. This is still a very solid team that was not supposed to do much this season but the defense was a big letdown to end October. The offense is still sizzling as sophomore quarterback Cole McDonald has arcade-game-like stats with 2,832 yards, 62.4 percent completion percentage, 30 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions. The offense was on a roll until quarterback McDonald was injured and missed the 17-13 home victory over Wyoming on Oct. 6. He returned the following week against BYU, but the Warriors have struggled a bit offensively ever since but opposing defenses have had something to do with that. Despite the six wins, the Warriors do need one more victory to become bowl eligible since their schedule consists of 13 games. The Aggies possess a potent offense as well as they were held to 24 points in a win over Wyoming and 31 points in a loss against Michigan St. but they have scored at least 42 points in each of their other six games. Most of that scoring output has come at home however as both of the aforementioned games came on the road. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better that are coming off three straight wins against conference rivals, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (424) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Underdog Game of the Month. The Pirates have lost three straight and are 0-4 in the AAC but the four games have been against the top four teams. East Carolina has outgained all but one opponent this season so it has been playing better than its record indicates which makes this an inflated line based on name and record. The Pirates outgained the two best teams in the AAC Houston and Central Florida, which are a combined 15-1 and 9-0 in the conference but lost those games by 22 and 27 points respectively. The problem was that they lost the turnover battle 4-0 and 5-0 and there is no chance of winning when that happens. East Carolina is worst in the country in turnover margin but it has given it up only 15 times with nine of those coming in the last two games. Memphis was expected to do some damage but it is just 4-4 including a 1-3 record in the conference. The Tigers offense remains explosive but the defense has been all over the place and the Pirates actually possess the better stop unit in this matchup. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in its last game. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. The winner of this game will be in prime position for the ACC Coastal Division and a place in the ACC Championship Game. Virginia has won three games in a row and is ranked for the first time since 2011 so there is certainly some pressure to keep it going. The Cavaliers have not been overly dominating however as they are just +36 total net yards in those three victories. The defense has led the way this season as Virginia is ranked No. 21 overall and No. 20 against the run, allowing 113 ypg. That is a bit skewed based on the number of plays as the Cavalier are ranked just No. 50 in yppl allowed and No. 51 in ypc allowed. Against Duke, the Panthers literally ran to victory, amassing 484 yards on the ground. The rushing total marked their highest since the Tony Dorsett era when it had a record 530 vs. Army in 1975. The Panthers got a huge lift against Duke from V'Lique Carter, a freshman who started the season as a defensive back. In his college debut, he carried the ball seven times for 137 yards and touchdown runs of 31 and 16 yards. Pittsburgh has yet to win consecutive games this season as it is 0-3 following a win but the last two wins prior to last week were followed by close losses as the Panthers fell to North Carolina by three points and Notre Dame by five points, both of those coming on the road. The Panthers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and they fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (315) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. While there have been some solid Thursday matchups through the first half of the season, this is not one of those but we can take advantage of a soft line where San Francisco has significant advantages. The 49ers have lost six straight games but four of those came against quality opponents and while the other two were against Arizona, last week was just by three points and the other came despite winning the yardage battle by 227 total yards. The big issue for the 49ers is at quarterback as C.J. Beathard is questionable with a wrist injury which means Nick Mullens could be making his maiden NFL start but whoever starts, it should not matter. Headed into Week Nine, the San Francisco offense ranks 22nd in the NFL, and while that number does not really strike fear into the opponent, what the group can do on the ground should. The 49ers are led by running back Matt Breida who has 487 rushing yards and two touchdowns along with a 5.8 ypc average and overall, they are ranked sixth in rushing offense with 133.6 ypg. The Raiders defense is ranked deal last against the rush and it does not stop there as they have given up seven passing plays more than 40 yards, tied for the fourth-most in the league. This is partly due to amassing only seven sacks, fewest in the league. The 49ers fall into a phenomenal rushing situation as we play against road teams averaging between 70-95 rushing ypg going up against a team allowing between 95-125 rushing ypg, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in two straight games. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 10-0 ATS the last five years. 10* (308) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our AAC Game of the Month. Temple is peaking at the right time as after a 0-2 start, the Owls are 5-1 over their last six games including a 4-0 record in the AAC and first place in the East Division is on the line tonight. The Owls offensive line has been playing at an extremely high level during the recent six-game stretch. Led by redshirt sophomore center Matt Hennessy, who has yet to allow a quarterback pressure, the line has surrendered just eight sacks this season. The defense has been more impressive as the Owls are second in the nation with 45 three-and-outs forced. Overall, they are allowing just 4.2 yppl and 330.5 ypg, which has them fourth and second in the conference respectively. Temple has allowed 2.68 percent of plays against them to go for 20-plus yards, which is first in the country. With 20 consecutive victories, the Knights have the longest active winning streak in the country as you have to go all the way back to the 2016 Cure Bowl to find their most recent loss. Central Florida is just one of four undefeated teams among all FBS schools and it is up to Temple to end that string. Quarterback McKenzie Milton is going to be a gametime decision after missing the last game with an ankle injury but we are expecting him to go in this crucial game for both sides and the line is saying the same thing. Temple is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 15-3 ATS two or more consecutive wins against the spread. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won four out of their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (313) Temple Owls

This is a play on the TOLEDO ROCKETS for our CFB Halloween MAC Bloodbath. This is not the typical Toledo team we are accustomed to as the Rockets are 4-4 including a 2-2 record in the MAC but last week could have provided a second half jumpstart. They rolled over Western Michigan to hand the Broncos their first conference loss to remain two games behind Northern Illinois. Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is questionable for tonight but that is not a concern as after he left last week against Western Michigan, Eli Peters did not miss a beat. Peters kicked the offense into overdrive in the third quarter, driving the Rockets to three quick touchdowns to open up a 44-17 lead that proved too big a hole for the Broncos to climb out of. Ball St. has lost two straight games following a 52-14 blowout at Ohio last week and now the Cardinals are forced to win out to become bowl eligible. The loss against the Bobcats was even more painful as they lost quarterback Riley Neal to a knee injury and he is not going to play tonight. Sophomore Drew Plitt takes over and he has been pretty ineffective in four games this season as well as three starts last year. One of those starts came against Toledo last season and he went 15-34 and just 97 yards passing. Toledo is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 home games after a win by 17 or more points while Ball St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 10* (306) Toledo Rockets

This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. The Bulls sit atop the MAC East standings and have their best record through eight games since 1959. Buffalo has won 10 of its last 11 games dating back to last season, with its lone loss coming against Army on September 29. They have a chance to pull away in the division as it will be two games with a win tonight and could be two games over Ohio should the Bobcats fall at Western Michigan on Thursday. The key advantage for the Bulls this week is the run game. With freshman Jaret Patterson and redshirt freshman Kevin Marks having great debut seasons, they have a chance to exploit the RedHawks biggest weakness on defense. Making matters worse for Miami, they are totally banged up as four of their starting five defensive backs are questionable as is a starting defensive lineman and linebacker. Quarterback Tyree Jackson can take advantage of that secondary and he keeps the defense off-balanced because of his running ability. Miami has a potent offense as it has put up 30 or more points in each of its last five games and all of those have resulted in covers. This will be a challenge however as defensively, Buffalo limits opposing teams to 21.1 ppg which leads the MAC and it is also leading the conference in total defense. Buffalo 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against conference opponents while going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up wins. While the RedHawks have covered five straight games, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. There is only one way to play this game as it is rare to get a home underdog at this number, especially in a divisional game but it is the Patriots and despite the pointspread, the public is all over them. New England has received 71 percent of the bets at offshore books which is tied for the most one-sided action in Week Eight with the Bengals and unfortunately, we all saw how that turned out. Over the last 10 years, there have been just 17 double-digit divisional home underdogs and those games have resulted with the home team taking the money in 13 of those games. This includes a 4-1 ATS mark on Monday nights with one of those wins coming last season as the Patriots were in a pretty similar spot as they were riding an eight-game winning streak and rolled into Miami as a double-digit favorite only to lose outright by a touchdown. The other two wins were the Rams in 2013 in a five-point loss to Seattle as 13-point underdogs and the Raiders in a four-point loss to San Diego as 10.5-point underdogs. New England has won four straight games after a 1-2 start and the offense has been on a roll, scoring 38 points three times and 43 points the other. Buffalo is down to its third quarterback this week as Derek Anderson will be making his second start but this will be his first one at home and his first one with more than three days to prepare so he should be better off than he was last week. In addition to the divisional home underdog situation, Buffalo falls into another where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFC Game of the Year. Green Bay heads west following its bye week as it prepares to take on the meat of its schedule. The Packers, namely Aaron Rodgers, will be playing the respect card on Sunday as this line is out of control even if it is against the best team in the NFL at this point. Rodgers has never been an underdog by this many points and in his career, he has been an underdog of six or more points four times and he is a perfect 4-0 ATS. He has a healthy receiving corps this week Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb were back practicing after missing the last game while Davante Adams should be back to 10 percent. Green Bay has gone 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Rams are coming off their seventh straight win to open the season including the last three all coming on the road. They snapped a three-game ATS skid with the rout over the 49ers last week, the same 49ers team that nearly pulled off the upset two weeks ago in Green Bay and that is playing into this line. The Los Angeles offense is humming but the defense will again have its hands full on the interior where Rodgers could have a field day in the middle of the field. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Bengals look to right the ship after suffering a pair of one-sided losses in their last two games. The lost to Pittsburgh by a touchdown but they were outgained by 206 yards and last week, they were torched by Kansas City by 35 points while getting outgained by 312 yards. A 4-1 start has been negated the last two weeks and this is a big game to get to 5-3 instead of 4-4 heading into their bye week. The Bengals can refocus on beating a handful of mediocre teams in the next month to rebuild their confidence especially on the defense where Cincinnati is on pace to allow 440 points, the most in 30 years. Tampa Bay is coming off an overtime win over Cleveland last week to improve to 3-3 and it hits the road where the defense has been atrocious as it has allowed an average of more than 40 ppg over the teams three 2018 road games. And they are banged up as the Buccaneers will be without two starting defensive linemen, tackle Gerald McCoy and end Vinny Curry, for a second straight game. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (264) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our PAC 12 Game of the Year. Washington St. is coming off a win over Oregon to move to 3-1 in the Pac 12 North and remain a half-game behind Washington for first place. The Cougars have been humming as they have outgained all seven opponents including their game against USC, which was their only loss. Additionally, they are a perfect 7-0 against the number which is keeping this number down. Stanford has been up and down and after back-to-back blowout losses, the Cardinals bounced back with a big road win at Arizona St. last week to also move to 3-1 in the conference making the winner of this game still in the Pac 12 Championship hunt. Stanford will be out for double-revenge after getting blown out here by 26 points two years ago and getting outgained 430-198 last season in Pullman. Stanford is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl. Meanwhile, Washington St. is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two consecutive double-digit conference wins while going 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road road games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. 10* (162) Stanford Cardinal

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We lost with Mississippi St. last week and it did not play as bad as the final score shows. the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers by 21 yards but quarterback Nick Fitzgerald had an awful game as he was 8-24 for 59 yards and he threw four interceptions. After they allowed an opening touchdown, the Bulldogs defense tightened up as they allowed just four field goals the rest of the way. They are facing a strong offense but overall, they are allowing just 282.4 ypg while allowing only 4.4 yppl. The Aggies have won three straight games and to their credit, their only two losses have come against Clemson and Alabama so Jimbo Fisher has come in and done a great job. Texas A&M has outgained six of seven opponents and this is another game with a low line based on the Aggies spread success as they are 6-1 against the number. The Bulldogs can keep their defensive momentum and going back, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games against teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. 10* (174) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our ACC Game of the Month. Miami and Boston College come into Friday with identical 5-2 records including 2-1 marks in the ACC so this is a pivotal game for both sides. This is a strength on strength matchup and one that Boston College should have the edge at home. The Eagles are ranked 35th in the nation in total offense, making Boston College the most potent offense Miami has faced this year. It is ranked No. 21 in rushing offense, again, making the Eagles the top-ranked team the Hurricanes have faced that features four players averaging at least 4.9 ypc. One of those returns to the field as the Eagles get running back AJ Dillon back after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He leads the team with 652 yards rushing on 6.2 ypc after gaining 1,589 yards on 5.3 ypc last season as a freshman. While the Miami rushing defense is stout, ranked No. 12 in the nation, the Boston College offensive line will pose a big challenge. The Hurricanes are once again making a change at quarterback as Malik Rosier will get the start. This is not a good sing for Miami as Rosier started the first three games of the season and has completed 52 percent of his passes for 781 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He was replaced by N'Kosi Perry who started the next four games but was pulled in the last game against Virginia after going 3-6 with a pair of picks. Boston College is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while Miami is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (116) Boston College Eagles

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions as Houston, after a 0-3 start, has won four straight games to take over the lead in the AFC South while the Dolphins have dropped three of their last four games after a 2-0 start. This is a number larger than we normally prefer to lay but it has not gone south of a touchdown so there is no value loss and laying over a touchdown is validated in this situation. The Texans are where they were expected to be before the season started and even that 0-3 start is not that bad on paper as one loss came at New England by a touchdown while the other two losses were against the Titans and Giants by a combined eight points and they won the yardage battle in both games by a combined 202 total yards. Houston is ranked No. 14 in total defense but it is ranked No. 5 in the more important defensive efficiency category according to Football Outsiders and it has picked it up over the last three games, allowing just 12 ppg. The Texans have not been dominant at home as they have failed to cover their last five games at NRG Stadium, but they welcome the perfect opponent. Miami is a mess right now as not only is it without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, two of the top three receivers were lost last week as Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, who are tied for the lead in touchdowns with four apiece, both suffered injuries. Brock Osweiler has not looked bad over the last two games but he will be making his first road start and any talk of the revenge narrative because of Houston trading him can be tossed out the window. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss, losing those games by an average of 15.6 ppg. 10* (104) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Appalachian St. is ranked for the first time ever as it crept into the No. 25 spot in the AP Poll but now comes the first real test in a while. It has been an impressive season for the Mountaineers whose only loss came in their season opener against Penn St. in overtime but they are overpriced in this spot by laying doubles on the road. This is a very potent offense that averages 476 ypg and 44.8 ppg but they will be facing their biggest test since opening 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. They did suffer a big hit two weeks ago when leading rusher Jalin Moore suffered a dislocated ankle and was lost for the season. While there are capable backups, his 2,839 rushing yards over the last two and a half seasons will be missed here. The Eagles may not be ranked, but their list of victims includes Sun Belt West favorite Arkansas St., and their only loss is to No. 2 Clemson by a 38-7 score. In his first full year at the helm, Chad Lunsford has the Eagles off to their hottest start in recent history, which is even more impressive considering Georgia Southern went 2-10 last season. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 ypg rushing with quarterback Shai Werts leading the team with 542 yards. Running back Wesley Fields has rushed for 472 but is coming off a groin injury that kept him out of last week's 48-31 win over New Mexico St. The good news is that he is listed as probable this week. On the other side. the Georgia Southern defense this season is allowing 15.6 ppg to Sun Belt Conference opponents, and the unit currently sits at No. 24 in the country in scoring defense with 19.3ppg. there is plenty of motivation for the home team as Georgia Southern has not beaten their arch rival since 2014 and has lost six of the last seven to the Mountaineers. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Night Game of the Month. The Giants have had extra time to prepare for this Monday night game as they played last Thursday and were hammered by the Eagles by 21 points. That extra time means little as New York is going nowhere fast and has been stuck in neutral all season. It is three games behind the Redskins in the NFC East and this could very well be the last stand for Eli Manning, who is putting up decent numbers but they are not translating into wins. The Giants need to give Manning time to throw, and he might have it against Atlanta, which has not had much of a pass rush this season. Only four teams have fewer than the 10 sacks the Falcons have recorded this season. But New York can help add to that number as the Giants continue to make changes along what has been a porous offensive line for the past two seasons, benching disappointing right guard Patrick Omameh, in favor of backup interior lineman Spencer Pulley. While the Falcons sack numbers are low, the Giants have just seven and that is tied with the Raiders for fewest in the league. New York is ranked No. 27 in defensive efficiency and faces a potent offense where Matt Ryan has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,433 yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. This can be considered a must win for Atlanta heading into its bye week as a couple of late blown leads could come back to haunt them, but the Falcons are a couple plays from being 4-2 or even 5-1. And they have won two of three inside the NFC South, so they still control their own destiny. The Falcons have played a relatively tough schedule as they have faced only one team ranked outside the top 16 and that resulted in a win over Tampa Bay last week. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. If there was any question that the Dallas offense was struggling, last week should have answered that. Or at least many will think that but that is not the case as one week does not make a cure but that is what the public saw and now the line reflects that. The Cowboys improved to 3-3 with the victory but the venue has played a big part as they are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing nine points or less last game. Washington is coming off an impressive win over Carolina although it was outgained and took advantage of three Panthers turnovers. The defense is no joke as the Redskins are ranked No. 5 overall and No. 8 in scoring defense and this is with that New Orleans debacle from a couple weeks ago. They should be out for some payback as Dallas has won the last four meetings in this series that has always been notoriously close. Going back, the Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Saints come in red hot having won four straight games following a season opening loss against Tampa Bay but they caught a momentum killer with a bye last week. The New Orleans offense is firing on all cylinders right now but it has yet to face a defense this strong, especially on the road where it has faced scoring defenses ranked No. 31 and No. 24. New Orleans is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. The Ravens are coming off a 21-0 shutout over Tennessee in sloppy conditions but even with that, this is a very strong defense. Baltimore is ranked No. in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense as it has held all but one opponent to 14 or fewer points. The offense is not too shabby either as the Ravens are No. 9 in total offense and No. 12 in scoring offense and they face off against a Saints defense that is in the bottom third in both categories. The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (470) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is one of the biggest games for Purdue in recent memory as it has been a while since the Boilermakers have been featured on a nationally televised nighttime game. They opened the season with three straight losses but those came by a total of eight points so instead of sitting at 3-3, Purdue could very well be 6-0 at this point. The offense is rolling along with the passing game leading the way but they also possess a pair of backs that is going to present matchup problems for Ohio St. With the Buckeyes struggling in pass defense, they will also have to deal with two very talented runners in the backfield. Purdue has 24 plays of 30 or more yards and Ohio St. is No. 106 in the country in allowing plays of 40 or more yards. Ohio St. is 7-0 but it has struggled in its two road games as TCU kept it close most of the game and it narrowly escaped Penn St. The Buckeyes also feature a strong passing attack but the Boilermakers defensive backs have only allowed two passing touchdowns so far this season. Purdue falls into a contrarian situation where we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (334) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. We won with LSU last week as it upset Georgia and it remains home on upset alert. The Tigers lost the previous week against Florida for its first defeat of the season and they have to avoid a letdown here. The public is all over LSU this week after that big upset as they are seeing a line that is considered shorter than it should be. For LSU, the Tigers will look to establish a balanced attack against the Bulldogs, much like they did against Georgia, finishing with 275 rushing yards and 200 passing yards but it will not be easy. The Bulldogs are also coming off an upset of their own as they defeated Auburn at home by 14 points as underdogs but the big difference is that they are coming off a bye week so there is no chance of a letdown. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Kylin Hill stole the show, rushing for 195 yards and 126 yards, respectively and the Tigers linebackers and secondary will be tested by Fitzgerald's ability to turn busted plays into first downs. Here, we play on road underdogs that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after gaining 6.0 or more ypc last game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (403) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Southern Mississippi fell to 2-3 on the season after its second consecutive loss last week. The first loss was a respectable 11-point loss at Auburn but last week, they went to North Texas and lost by 23 points so they will be out for a big win as they return home. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming by a point against UL-Monroe which was attributed to four turnovers. UTSA had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 home loss against Louisiana Tech but that winning streak cannot be taken too seriously. Two wins were against the two worst teams in C-USA while the other victory came against the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Roadrunners were actually outgained in two of those victories and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 115.4 ypg. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average margin of victory being 26 ppg. 10* (394) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our Underdog Game of the Year. Wyoming has lost three straight games and five of its last six and it is getting closer to missing out on a bowl game. The recent schedule has been tough as the Cowboys faced Boise St. and lost by 20 points then had to travel to Hawaii where they played a competitive game but fell short and had to turn around to travel to Fresno St. last week where they were overmatched. They are back home and in a great contrarian situation. Utah St. lost its season opener at Michigan St. by just seven points and it has rolled over its last five opponents. The Aggies have covered all six games this season which is inflating this line and while they defeated BYU in their last road game by 25 points, they outgained the Cougars by just 27 yards as they took advantage of three turnovers. Wyoming falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on team after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (360) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. The points at home look very tempting in this spot but UNLV is at a severe disadvantage in the most significant areas in this matchup. The Rebels opened the season 2-2 with quarterback Armani Rogers behind center and he is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in the MWC. However, he suffered a significant toe injury in the loss to Arkansas St. and has not played since and it has showed. Though the Rebels lead the conference in rushing offense at 257.2ypg, Rogers ranks second on the team with 488 rushing yards with an impressive average of 6.87 ypc and his absence is striking. UNLV has been outrushed by 276 yards over the last two games and has been beaten by 36 and 31 points. The Rebels have rushed for a combined 197 yards on 75 carries (2.6 ypc) in those games and that will not do the job here against the Falcons which are ranked second in the MWC and eighth in the country having held opponents to 101.2 rushing ypg on 3.2 ypc. They need to load up and stop running back Lexington Thomas, who is banged up with a concussion. The Rebels have had to resort to passing the ball more with Max Gilliam at quarterback and it has not gone well. He was sacked seven times last week and overall, UNLV has averaged 8.9 yards to go on third down, 126th nationally, and their third-down Success Rate is 127th (29 percent). On the other side, Air Force also relies on the rushing game as it is averaging 248.3 ypg and while its quarterback situation is nearly as bad with injuries, the Falcons do not rely on a lot of production from the quarterback. UNLV is ranked last in the MWC and No. 105 in the nation, allowing 199.0 ypg. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 35 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Arizona returns home following a two-game roadtrip where it split with San Francisco and Minnesota and looks to grab its first win at State Farm Stadium after starting the season 0-3. The Cardinals did look good in its last two home games, losing to Chicago and Seattle by a combined five points and Thursday presents a good opportunity to get the offense going. Arizona is dead last in the NFL in total offense and second to last in scoring offense but it has faced some strong defenses with four teams ranked at No. 11 or better in total defense and the other two coming in at No. 16 and No. 19. Denver will be the worst defense the Cardinals have faced and by a wide margin. The Broncos are near the bottom in numerous defensive categories and while they have faced the Rams and Chiefs, they have struggled against the rest of the schedule as well. In their last game against Minnesota, the Cardinals may have found something on offense they can use against the Broncos defense. The Cardinals used a hurry-up, no-huddle offense successfully, resulting in their one touchdown on offense in the fourth quarter and quarterback Josh Rosen looked comfortable which is no surprise since he has the on-huddle at UCLA. Their 302 offensive plays are the fewest by any team through that same time span since 2005 so the defense has been on the field for way too long. Despite that, he Arizona defense has not been horrible based on the schedule it has played and it will face a Broncos offense that has been inconsistent this season. The Cardinals are ranked No. 8 in defensive yppl at 5.4 despite being dead last in time of possession percentage and if they could keep that unit off the field, they could be even better. The Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (302) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The bad news for Arkansas St. is that it is 0-2 in the Sun Belt Conference. The good news is that both losses came against Georgia Southern and Appalachian St., the two top teams in the SBC East Division and the Red Wolves reside in the much weaker West Division and if they win out, they will be in the Sun Belt Conference Championship no matter what any other team does. The last two losses were painful in that both were winnable as they lost to the Eagles in the final seconds and against the Mountaineers, the were outgained by just 54 yards but three interceptions and a 3-17 third down conversion rate killed them. The offense is better than what was on display the last two games and they will face one of the worst defenses in the nation as Georgia St. is allowing 491.3 ypg which is No. 119 in the country. The Panthers have allowed 543, 679, 528 and 554 yards in four of their games so if the Red Wolves are to break out, this is the game to do it. They have made some changes on offense as select offensive packages were simplified to boost confidence and to limit excessive thinking. Creating more one-on-one matchups for their offensive skill players, something the Red Wolves have found as their offensive strength, has become prioritized even more. They welcome the Sun Belt's worst scoring offense as the Panthers 22.3 ppg is No. 115 in the country. Georgia St. did put up 46 points against UL-Monroe but has scored no more than 24 points in any of its other five games, averaging just 17.6 ppg. Arkansas St. is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams allowing 31 or more while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a home loss. Additionally, we play on home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a big number to be laying down but the 49ers injury situation is not improving from earlier in the week. We already know Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the season but tonight, San Francisco will be without running back Matt Breida while three starting offensive linemen and a backup are all still listed as questionable. This is not ideal going up against a defense that has been underrated this season as the Packers are ranked No. 4 in total defense, allowing just 313.8 ypg while the scoring defense is also a top ten unit. C.J. Beathard gets the start and in just two games this season, he has thrown four interceptions giving him 10 career picks in only seven career starts. In the 28-18 loss to Arizona last week, Beathard completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with two touchdowns and the 49ers rang up 447 yards of total offense. Of course, there were also five turnovers and that has plagued the 49ers offense all season. This is a big game for the Packers prior to their bye coming up next week as they are looking to bounce back from a loss to Detroit and they can move into first place with a victory. Following their bye, they have back-to-back games against the Rams and Patriots, both on the road, which puts more emphasis on this game. Many are down on this team but according to Pro Football Focus elite stats, the Packers enter Week Six as the 7th best team in the NFL with an 81.6 grade, while their offense ranks 6th with a 76.0 grade and their defense ranks 7th with a grade of 79.3. The Packers have outgained their last two opponents by 278 and 257 total yards so the offense continues to roll as well and while many are blaming the field goal kicking doing them in, the offense should not have put Mason Crosby in that position so many times by finishing 3-10 in third down. The Packers were unable to execute when needed but that should change at home against a mediocre San Francisco defense. 10* (278) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year. The game of the season so far will take place Sunday night as Kansas City brings in a perfect 5-0 record and will try to win here for a second straight season. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive win over Jacksonville as the defense held the Jaguars to just 14 points and that was due to five turnover. The defense still allowed 502 total yards so it is still an issue and was masked by the final score. Kansas City has been outgained in four of five games and while the offense will still move the ball, this is the one matchup where they will not likely jump out to a big lead which they have done in three of their four games. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. This is the third straight home game for the Patriots which is a significant advantage, even more so when playing with an extra three days of rest. They should excel against the Chiefs defense as quarterback Tom Brady has been very good this season and has recently gained steam while the Chiefs defense has not. The goal is at least 400 yards as going back to 2013, they are 32-2 when hitting that number. The history of Belichick-coached teams facing rookie quarterbacks is timely to revisit this week, and it starts with this: The Patriots are 9-0 at home against rookie signal-callers. It gets even better. Since 2007, quarterback Tom Brady is 59-2 at home against AFC opponents. The first loss was in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Buffalo Bills in 2014, when the Patriots had already clinched home-field advantage and Brady was pulled at halftime. The second was last season in their season opener and more important, it came against the Kansas City Chiefs which only adds to the motivation this Sunday night. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) New England Patriots

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We were on Miami last week and things were looking good with the Dolphins possessing a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter and then the wheels fell off. The Bengals tied the game early in the fourth quarter by way of a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown and took the lead late with a field goal. Miami was still alive with over two minutes remaining but quarterback Ryan Tannehill was strip sacked and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. The Dolphins are back home following a two-game roadtrip that saw them lose to the Patriots as well in a blowout. Chicago has won three straight games but the Bears have benefitted from playing the 27th ranked schedule in the NFL. They are coming off a bye week and the early bye is not good here as it killed momentum from the winning streak including the victory over Tampa Bay which was one of the most complete games on both sides in a while. The question here is are the Bears six points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field? The simple answer is no as this line is based on recency bias. Looking at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) provided by Football Outsiders for both teams, the Bears are 1st in defensive DVOA, while Miami checks in at 5th. The Bears are 17th offensively, with the Dolphins right behind them at 18 so these teams are more even that people think. The Chicago defense is a tough unit with the addition of Khalil Mack so the offensive line for the Dolphins has to step up which it did not do last Sunday. That was due to losing left tackle Laremy Tunsil with a concussion but he is projected to return this week as he is back at practice. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game and is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game. Additionally, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (256) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We played against LSU last week as the Tigers went to Florida and suffered their first loss of the season. They are back in Baton Rouge for their first real home test of the season and they have an excellent shot at a big bounceback and to remain in the thick of the SEC West race. A loss here will likely take any chance out as they would fall two games behind Alabama. This is a tough matchup for sure but LSU matches up well against Georgia in their first meeting since 2013. The Tigers are averaging 190 ypg rushing on 4.5 ypc and they have a chance to succeed here as the Bulldogs rushing defense has been nothing special of late. Taking Tennessee out of the equation, Georgia has allowed 4.8 ypc, 4.6 ypc and 4.2 ypc over its last three games. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been very solid as he has given LSU a quarterback that has been able to take some shots downfield for the first time in a very long time and he will be facing a fairly young secondary. Taking nothing away from how Georgia has dominated every game thus far but it has played the easiest schedule of all teams in the SEC. The Bulldogs defeated Missouri by 14 points in their last road game and it was far from a domination as they benefitted from three Tigers turnovers including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and they also blocked a punt for a touchdown. Georgia is one of the youngest teams in the nation this season as its roster consists of 68.5 percent freshmen and sophomores. That is the youngest in the SEC and 15th youngest in the country and this will be the toughest place those players will have seen as before this is was Auburn which resulted in a blowout loss. The Bulldogs will be starting two for sure, and maybe three, freshmen on the offensive line. They lost a ton from the front seven and coming into this week, the Bulldogs are last of 14 SEC schools in sacks with just six. LSU has been a home underdog just seven times since 2009 and never allowed more than 23 points in any of those games. Additionally, LSU is 9-0 ATS against teams averaging 8.0 or more passing ypa. 10* (198) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Give a lot of credit to Northwestern as it was coming off a heartbreaking loss against Michigan two weeks ago at home where it blew a 17-0 lead but bounced back brilliantly on the road as the Wildcats went to East Lansing and defeated Michigan St. by 10 points. Those were two very impressive games for Northwestern, which was coming off losses against Duke and Akron, but digging deeper shows they should not have been where they finished. Against the Wolverines, they were outgained by 174 total yards as they benefitted from 11 penalties by Michigan that resulted in 100 yards. Against the Spartans, they were outgained by 44 yards and the winning margin was gained by Michigan St. missing a fourth down on its own 11-yard line with over three minutes left, which was a suspect play call. We are seeing huge reverse line movement in this game as the Wildcats opened as 7.5-point favorites and while over two-thirds of the tickets are on then, the line has dropped considerably. Nebraska is off to its worst start since 1945 and the natives are getting restless as this is not what was envisioned when Scott Frost was hired as head coach. Going back to last season, the Huskers have lost nine straight games so they need to get on the right side of the scoreboard and fast. Three weeks against Michigan was a disaster but the next week, they outgained Purdue but lost because of 136 penalty yards. Last week, they lost at Wisconsin by 17 points but were outgained by just 15 yards as 100 yards in penalties were the difference once again. Two situation favor Nebraska. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (179) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Friday Game of the Month. This is what we can consider a trap line. South Florida, which lost only twice last season, is off to a 5-0 start but it is a misleading 5-0 start. One win came against Elon of the FCS while three others came against Illinois, East Carolina and Massachusetts, not exactly murderers row. The one quality win came against Georgia Tech by 11 points but the Bulls were outgained by 176 total yards as it returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and benefitted from three Georgia Tech turnovers, two of which were at the end of the game and led to two touchdowns. Basically, it was a game the South Florida was completely outplayed in but won thanks to four touchdowns from somewhere other than the offense. Another part of the trap line concept is that the Bulls were favored by 24 points last season at home and we are seeing a 17-point shift which is too big for some to comprehend. Despite the big number, it was only a seven-point loss. South Florida lost one of the best players in the conference in quarterback Quinton Flowers, who was also its leading rusher, its two other top rusher and top receiver as well as six defensive starters. We played against Tulsa last Thursday as it lost to Houston but stayed within the number. The Cougars could not come through with the revenge cover and give the Golden Hurricane credit for staying close nearly the entire game and only getting outgained by 53 yards. They have 15 starters back from their 2-10 team and at 1-4, this is a huge game for a much improved team. They have some tight losses against quality teams from a schedule that is ranked No. 33 in the country. Going back, the Golden Hurricane are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Philadelphia is off to a 2-3 post-Super Bowl Champion start which is not overly surprising considering most teams not named the Patriots tend to go through a Super Bowl hangover. The Eagles three losses all could have been wins however as the net yardage differential in those games is a total wash at 0.0. Only seven previous defending Super Bowl champions that started 2-3, and only one of the previous seven rebounded to make the postseason. Their season is far from over as they can buck history simply because they are located in the NFC East. Philadelphia is a half-game behind Washington, along with Dallas, and a game ahead of the Giants and this division is the only one with a team possessing first place that is not above .500. The Eagles simply have to win the close games they have been losing and they need to get the offense on track as their 20.6 ppg is ranked No. 25 in the league. Enter the Giants, which have allowed 33 points in each of their last two games including an excruciating last second loss against Carolina last week to drop them to 1-4. While they are not dead either because of the weakness of the division, they are a mess inside he locker room. The offense finally showed something against the Panthers but they will struggle against a strong Eagles defensive front as the offensive line has stunk it up. New York is No. 28 in rushing offense while Philadelphia is ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so any resemblance of balance on Thursday will be a tall order. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and fall into a solid situation where we play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our Big XII Game of the Month. Texas Tech has had a nice turnaround after getting crushed in its season opener against Mississippi and a lot of that credit goes to quarterback Alan Bowman. He replaced McLane Carter who had to leave that game with a high ankle sprain and was great by going 29-49 for 273 yards and a touchdown in his first action as a freshman but the defense was the typical Texas Tech defense in the 47-27 loss. Bowman started the next four games but had to leave the last one against West Virginia when a hit partially collapsed a lung and he had to be hospitalized for four days. Jett Duffey took over and he did not play well and he is in line to start tonight as Bowman has been downgraded to doubtful after being questionable all week and all signs are that the Carter ankle will still keep him out. Quarterback play is huge in the Red Raiders system and if this were any normal game, going to the third string might not make a big difference but this is no normal game. They will be facing a 3-2 TCU team that stayed with Ohio St. for three and a half quarters and the following week, had Texas on the ropes but costly turnovers did them in as they outgained the Longhorns. The challenge for the Red Raiders is facing a defense that is allowing just 303.6 ypg, which is tops in the Big XII and No. 12 in the nation. Additionally, the Horned Frogs lead the conference in passing defense and passing efficiency defense, checking in at No. 22 and No. 24 in the nation respectively. In their last game against West Virginia, the Red Raiders came in averaging 621 ypg and was held to 463 yards against a Mountaineers defense that is slightly worse than that of the Horned Frogs. While the strength of the Texas Tech defense is stopping the run, which is the strength of the TCU offense, it is skewed as the Red Raiders are 52nd against the run but 101st in ypc average. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (106) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Tuesday Star Attraction. We expected this line to go up and that is precisely what it has done as Appalachian St. opened at -7.5 and it is now up to -10.5 in some places. The is a classic reason to wait and let the betting public move the number so we can get on the other side with the added value. The Mountaineers have been great this season as they lost in overtime to Penn St. but have bounced back with three blowout wins. Dominating? Yes. Impressive? No. Those wins came over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama and those teams are currently ranked No. 175, No. 243 and No. 162 respectively in the most recent Sagarin Ratings with a combined 4-13 record. Conventional handicapping says to back the better rushing team, especially when there is a large differential between the two teams and in this case, Appalachian St. averages 269.5 ypg on 6.5 ypc while Arkansas St. allows 245.0 ypg on 5.7 ypc. That does not mean a blowout is in order. The Red Wolves got decimated on the ground in their last two games as they allowed 310 yards rushing on 6.3 ypc against UNLV and still won the game. In their last game against Georgia Southern, they allowed 348 yards rushing on 7.1 ypc and they lost by just a touchdown and that was on the road. Georgia Southern is ranked No. 5 in the nation in rushing offense while Appalachian St. comes in at No. 7 so there is no bigger advantage for the Mountaineers. Arkansas St. is ranked No. 87 in the Sagarin Ratings as it is now 3-2 on the season including a 2-0 record at home where it is 36-7 since 2011. Going back to last season, Appalachian St. is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run and do not think the linesmakers do not know that. Meanwhile, Arkansas St. has failed to cover five straight at home which sets up the perfect contrarian scenario. 10* (102) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Saints are off to a 3-1 start to the season but they are overpriced as being a big, primetime public home team, the line has been inflated. They are coming off a pair of road wins but they were against teams that are a combined 2-8 so not much should be taken from that. The home edge is always a big one here and tonight it will be electric with Drew Brees likely to pass Peyton Manning as the All-Time Passing Leader but that is certainly no reason to bet on a team. Even more so knowing the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Washington is 2-1 coming off its bye week which is a good thing now but could catch up to the Redskins later with it being so early. They were able rest and recover some injuries as running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) is ready to go and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) and left tackle Trent Williams (knee surgery) had time to heal and ease their way into practice this week. Alex Smith has proven to be a good pickup from the Chiefs as he manages the offense just like he did in Kansas City. Washington has an assorted array of skill talent, as well a solid offensive line, for a balanced attack that can get to a Saints defense which is allowing 30.2 ppg despite playing four teams that are a combined 5-10-1 with none possessing a winning record. The scoring defense is ranked No. 30 in the NFL while the total defense is ranked in the bottom quarter of the league. Washington is tops in the league in total defense but that is against a small sample size however it has been successful at disrupting opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking top-10 in pressures and that is important against Brees. New Orleans is just 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Meanwhile the Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (477) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Rams are off and running to a 4-0 start and their +73 scoring differential leads the NFL. They lead the league in total offense, averaging 125 ypg on the ground and 343 ypg through the air and they have scored at least 33 points every game this season. The schedule has been in their favor with three home games and the lone road game coming in Oakland and it has now been well over month since they left the state of California. Despite laying over a touchdown on the road, the public is all over the Rams which does not come as much of a surprise as recreational bettors are reacting to recent results while sharps like getting a 2-2 team as a touchdown or more underdog at home. The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. After losing its first two games by one possession, Seattle has bounced back with two straight wins including a last second victory over Arizona last week. The Seahawks have rediscovered their run game with consecutive 100-yard rushers and their defense has held three straight opponents to under 305 total yards of offense. Seattle is not without its problems and the one most talked about most is the offense line. But according to analysis based on new player tracking information, the much-maligned Seahawks offensive line might actually be decent at pass blocking, and it might not have been bad last season, either. The Seahawks have the fourth-best PBWR (pass block win rate) 2.5 seconds after the snap so they could have some success against the Rams defense. This is a big revenge game for Seattle and as much as the Seahawks would like to forget that day last December, a 42-7 loss to Los Angeles lingers. This is a situation the Seahawks have thrived in as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs of two or more points while going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs playing with revenge against a .500 or better opponent. 10* (474) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our AFC North Game of the Year. Cleveland comes into Week Five at 1-2-1 and it has played a lot better than that record shows. Two missed field goals and two bad referee calls last week has put the Browns in this spot and had those gone the other way, they could feasibly be 4-0 right now. While a lot of the hype is surrounding Baker Mayfield and the improved defense, and as it well should, the improvement overall can partly be attributed to not making mistakes. Prone to turnovers in past years, the Browns have the best turnover ratio in the NFL through the first quarter of the season. Mayfield is the type of quarterback that the Ravens have traditionally struggled against. He is mobile, he can beat you in unconventional ways and he has the arm talent to do damage. Cleveland finished No. 18 last season in rushing offense but it is currently No. 2 in that category, averaging 15.8 ypg. Baltimore is coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh last week to move to 3-1 on the season and that presents us with a great letdown opportunity. The last time Cleveland defeated Baltimore was back in October of 2015 and that situation is very similar to this week as the Ravens were coming off a win at Pittsburgh. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has traditionally had his best games against the Browns but this will be the best Browns team that has faced. The recency bias is in full effect here after last week with the Baltimore win over Pittsburgh coupled with the Brown allowing 45 points last week against the Raiders. Baltimore falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This includes a 14-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year. Florida Atlantic is coming off a tough loss against Middle Tennessee as it gave up the winning touchdown with 38 seconds left which was culminated with the two-point conversion. The Owls fell to 2-3 overall and now need to make up ground in the C-USA East Division after losing the conference opener. We saw something similar to this last season as they started the season 1-3 and went on to win 10 straight games. It will be up to the defense to make a similar result which is surprising considering the Owls allowed 390 ypg and 22.7 ppg but those averages have increased to 459 ypg and 39.8 ppg despite the return of 10 starters. However, this regression has been because of two games against UCF and Oklahoma where they allowed and average of 597.5 ypg and 59.5 ppg and Old Dominion is not in that group despite what it did to Virginia Tech. While the Monarchs hung with the Pirates last week, East Carolina dominated throughout as it outgained the Monarchs 492-271 but needed a field goal with less than a minute remaining to pull out the win. The Pirates had two interceptions which both led to Old Dominion touchdowns that totaled 44 yards so that is a big reason the score was as close as it was. Old Dominion has been outgained in four of five games and in that Virginia Tech game, it outgained the Hokies by just 32 total yards. Overall, the defense is allowing 509 ypg and while the Owls offense as not quite as potent as last season thus far, they should be able to name the score here. Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games and Florida Atlantic falls into a situation where we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (328) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. With all of the turmoil with Maryland entering the season, it is very impressive what it has done. The Terrapins are 3-1 including an upset over Texas and the one hiccup came against Temple, a game they simply did not show up for. They bounced back with a resounding victory over Minnesota and the big part about heading into this week is not just the renewed confidence but the fact they are coming off a bye week and an extra week of preparation before Michigan is a big advatnage. The Terrapins are 20th in the country in total defense, 18th in rushing defense and 52nd in passing defense so the inconsistent Wolverines offense will be put to test. Michigan is coming off a hard-fought physical game against Northwestern and it was fortunate to come away with a victory even though it dominated the stats. Northwestern was a tough test because it was on the road, but Maryland is the best all-around team Michigan has faced since the opener against Notre Dame. Saturday will be the definition of a trap game for Michigan, as the Wolverines are coming off a close, emotional road win and looking forward to three straight games against ranked opponents starting Wisconsin next week in a revenge game. Looking at raw numbers, we see that Maryland has played a schedule ranked No. 48 and Michigan has played a schedule ranked No. 43 so those are a near wash. As far as output, the Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in net yppl at +2.79 but Maryland is not far behind at +1.90. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 3.75 or fewer yppl in their previous game and Maryland falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs (averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging 190-230 rushing ypg after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (337) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Marshall enters Friday coming off a win over Western Kentucky but it was an ugly victory. The Thundering Herd had four turnovers with all of them occurring on the Western Kentucky side of the field, eliminating scoring opportunities for them to distance themselves early. The good news is that it was an important road win and one they can learn from in what is a huge early season conference game. It may only be the second game of the Conference USA slate, but it takes on significant meaning with the Blue Raiders coming in with a 1-0 record and having a win in hand over one of the C-USA top teams. Middle Tennessee defeated Florida Atlantic last week by one point with the winning touchdown coming in the final minute so a Marshall victory here at home put it in the drivers seat over the other two top teams in the East Division. The Blue Raiders are now 2-2 and have been outgained in three of four games. The schedule has no doubt been tough which has included a pair of games against SEC teams. Marshall could have some solid matchup edges here. With Middle Tennessee's blitz-heavy defense, the opportunity opens up for one-on-one situations and mismatches. Given that Marshall wide receivers Tyre Brady and Obi Obialo have excelled in one-on-one scenarios this season, there is plenty optimism that they can take advantage in this particular matchup. The Thundering Herd come in with the better defense, namely against the run where they are allowing 2.0 fewer ypc than what Middle Tennessee is allowing and for a pair of less than average rushing offenses, that is significant. The Blue Raiders are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win and here, we play on home teams rushing for 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams rushing for 3 to 3.5 ypc, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our AFC Thursday Game of the Year. Indianapolis enters Week Five with a 1-3 record and with a few bounces its way, it could be 3-1 or 4-0 as the three losses have been that close to going either way. In their last road game, the Colts lost at Philadelphia where they were getting 6.5 points and went down by just four. Now they are getting over a field goal more and at this point in the season, New England is not three points better than the Eagles so this is an inflated line based on who it is and not what it is. Andrew Luck is coming off his best game of the season as he threw for 464 yards and four touchdowns and on the season, he is completing over 67 percent of his passes which is by far the best of his career. The Patriots passing defense is ranked in the top ten in the league but they have not been overly tested yet with Matthew Stafford cutting them up pretty good and while DeShawn Watson is considered near the top, it was his first game back from injury. The Patriots put their most complete game together last week against Miami as they outgained the Dolphins by 277 total yards. They have looked dominant at home and not so much on the road but just because they blew out Miami last week, they should not be put on this high of a pedestal. There are issues all over the place that can be exploited. In making another line comparison, New England was favored by 6.5 points over Miami and we are here to say that Miami is not a over a field goal better than the Colts despite the 3-1 record compared to the 1-3 record. As a matter of fact, look at most power rankings and you will find the Colts ahead of Miami. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential.), after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our AAC Game of the Month. Houston was able to bounce back from its only loss of the season at Texas Tech as it rolled over Texas Southern 70-14, racking up 671 total yards in the process. The offense has been rolling all season as through four games, the Cougars are averaging 607 ypg and 52.3 ppg which are good for No. 1 and No. 2 in the country respectively. They have been as efficient as they come with Houston scoring 29 touchdowns and just two field goals in the four games. The big reason for the success is quarterback D'Eriq King. He took over the starting job toward the end of last season and has not missed a beat in 2018 as he has completed 62.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,197 yards and he has an unreal 15:1 TD/INT ratio. He has also added five rushing touchdowns. This is bad news for a Tulsa defense that has improved immensely since last season but it has yet to face an offense of this caliber. Houston got thumped in Tulsa last season and it will be out to return the favor. The Cougars allowed 288 yards rushing on 53 carries (5.4 ypc), which was their worst performance of the season. Things have changed however. Tulsa lost leading rusher D'Angelo Brewer and Houston, while giving up a ton of passing yards, have been excellent against the run, allowing just 114 ypg and while a lot of that can be attributed to teams abandoning the run to play catchup, the Cougars are allowing just 2.8 ypc so they have been stuffing the run. Tulsa does not have the offense to play catchup as quarterback Luke Skipper is averaging just 181.8 ypg and he has only four touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The red hot Chiefs travel to Denver to take on their rival as they will be going for a sixth straight victory in this series. Kansas City is off to a 3-0 start thanks to an offense that has yet to be stopped. The problem is, the defense has yet to stop anyone and the fact the Chiefs have been outgained in all three games is concerning. The Chiefs defense has combined to miss 36 tackles so far this season, which is the most among NFL defenses and it will not be getting any better this week as it has now been 48 days since safety Eric Berry practiced or played and he is again listed as doubtful. The Chiefs come in as the road favorite, which is rare in this series as it has happened only twice in 30 years and it is because of their hot start which can offer us opportunities in a market that tends to overreact week-to-week. Denver is off to a 2-1 start as it looks to improve to 3-0 at home following a loss in Baltimore last week. It will be up to the defense to come through here and try and slow down Mahomes and company. The Broncos possess a solid pass rush that can get to the quarterback and in this case, they will be looking to rattle Mahomes who tends to hold the ball longer than he should. Arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the game, Chris Harris Jr. has continued to shut down opposing receivers and he will be tested for sure by Tyreek Hill but he will play a key role. On the other side, the Broncos offense is middle of the pack but the rushing offense leads the way as they are ranked No. 4 in the NFL at 144.7 ypg while their 5.2 ypc average is also good for No. 4 in the league. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (278) Denver Broncos