Sports Picks & Predictions

We played on San Diego St. last Friday and admittedly got a little fortunate with the victory as the Aztecs were able to cover in overtime after blowing a 21-point, fourth quarter lead. The fact they didn't lose after doing the best they could to do so may give them some momentum heading into Thursday night but when all said and done, this is not a very strong team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Giving up a 21-point lead at home is downright horrible and San Diego St. has now allowed 40 or more points in three of its five games on the season. Additionally, it has been outgained in four of those games with the lone yardage advantage coming against New Mexico St. which is off to a 0-6 start. After winning its opener against Colgate of the FCS, Air Force has lost its last five games and four of those have not even been close. The Falcons are coming off a loss at Navy on Saturday morning by 18 points as turnovers were the difference. They lost that battle 3-0 and it is difficult to win against any team with that sort of differential. Despite the losing streak, Air Force at least has a positive trend going as while it has been outgained in each of the last five games, the margin has gotten smaller following each game so while the wins have not been coming, the play on the field has been better. Additionally, the Falcons have played the 49th toughest schedule in the nation. The scheduling of this game is not in the favor of the Aztecs. This is the second consecutive game in which the Aztecs have had a six-day turnaround. San?Diego St. is the only team in the country this season to play consecutive games less than a week apart and this marks its third game in 13 days. Even making that more difficult is that the Aztecs now have to get ready for the triple option in a very short amount of time. To compound matters more, four of San Diego St.'s first five opponents have run pass-oriented offenses, so this marks a drastic switch for the Aztecs on a short turnaround. Air Force is ranked 11th in the nation in rushing offense and while San Diego St. is 39th in the country in rushing defense, as mentioned, it has not been tested. On the other side, Air Force has allowed opponents to put up an average of 493 ypg, and the Falcons are ranked dead last nationally in third down conversion defense. This is not a good sign against a potent San Diego St. offense but the Falcons are coming off their best game on defense and the young stop unit may finally be starting to find that needed chemistry. 10* (106) Air Force Falcons

The Giants incredibly horrible start to the season continued last week as they lost to the Eagles to fall to 0-5 straight up and against the number. There are problems all over the place. Quarterback Eli Manning is throwing too many picks and getting sacked too many times, the running game is non-existent and the defense has not been able to stop anyone. At some point this season, barring an incredible turnaround, this team will be unbettable and while many are thinking that now sitting at 0-5 ATS, they were still overrated but now we can finally get the chance to buy them low. Backing teams on 0-5 ATS runs may seem suicidal but in fact, it is a very strong situation as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 record and they were the early talk of the NFL but they have dropped their last two games since then and are once again feeling the heat. They got away with a win against Cincinnati as they had to rally late and the other two wins came against Pittsburgh and Minnesota and the only reason one of those teams has a victory is because they had to play each other in London two weeks ago. Chicago is getting outgained on the season and while it isn't by much, it proves how it has been far from dominating. The favorite has come through in each of the last two Thursday night games and with the Giants sitting at 0-5, the consensus is on the chalk again this week and at a very inflated number. Since coming to Chicago, Quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. New York has not dropped its first six games since going 0-9 back in 1976 and this is a record this team does not want to approach. It is imperative to get the running game going and while they have not been able to do it thus far, this could be the game it comes out. Brandon Jacobs will be starting the game with David Wilson out but the Bears defensive line is extremely thin with Henry Melton and Nate Collins out and Stephen Paea still hurting. The Giants defense needs to get pressure on Cutler to try and create turnovers, something Cutler is known to do. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home and while the nightmare season could continue, we are getting a healthy dose of points that will at least give them their first cover of the season. 10* (101) New York Giants

***THIS IS NOT A PLAY ON ATLANTA ATS***

This a is two-team teaser on Atlanta and the Over. Tease the spread down as well as tease the total down. I typically do not play a lot of teasers but this one sets up well on Monday night. The Falcons are 1-3 and in desperate need of a victory as they currently trail the undefeated Saints by three and a half games plus they already have a loss to New Orleans. Atlanta has dropped its last two games at Miami and at home against New England despite outgaining both opponents. The Falcons are two games below .500 for the first time in the Matt Ryan era and mired in their first losing streak since 2009 going into Monday night so the question remains if last year was a fluke or if they are just having bad luck. I believe it is the latter. The Jets are 2-2 and while they could be sitting at 3-1, they could also be sitting at 1-3. they have outgained every opponent which is a plus but the Patriots have been the only real opponent they have seen. The Jets may have lost some confidence after being beaten up and exposed by the Titans last week and they've already lost both of their road games. Turnovers have really hurt New York as it is 29th in the NFL in scoring offense but 13th in total offense so they are moving the ball well but unable to convert. Facing a banged up Falcons defense could be the cure and while the Jets have dealt with plenty of injuries to their receivers, though they should be bolstered this week by the return of Stephen Hill from a concussion. Falcons defensive end Kroy Biermann is out for the year, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least half the season and linebacker Akeem Dent won't play either. Atlanta's offense is ranked 29th in the league in touchdown percentage from inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Last week's 30-23 loss to New England was especially troubling, as the Falcons produced only one touchdown with six red-zone possessions. In two of their three losses, Ryan had the ball inside the opponents' seven-yard line at the end of the game, with a chance to pull out a win. This I feel is what is getting us a lower than normal total and it is the lowest number that the Falcons have had all season so teasing it down more adds to the value. 10* Atlanta and the Over Two Team Tease

We played against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and they managed only two field goals in a 17-6 loss. Part of the reason for going against them was due to their big win the previous week over Green Bay and part of the reason for playing them this week is due to the loss suffered last Sunday. Cincinnati is sitting at 2-2 and could be 3-1 as it blew a late lead against the Bears in its season opener but it is still tied atop the AFC North with the Ravens and Browns. Making this home game even more important is the fact that four of Cincinnati's next five games are on the road so protecting the home field where it is 5-1 its last six games is imperative. The Bengals offense has struggled the last two games but I believe that changes here. The Patriots improved to 4-0 with their win over Atlanta last Sunday night and while we were on the wrong side of that one, it was one of those games that could have gone either way. The Patriots were outgained, albeit slightly, by Atlanta and they have been outgained in two of their four games thus far. New England has been solid as a road underdog over the last few years but considering where this line has gone from its opening is a signal as 89 percent of the ATS wagers in this game have gone on New England but the line has gone the opposite direction. Look for the Bengals to try and establish the run to set up the passing game. With Patriots defensive lineman Vince Wilfork out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, stopping Cincinnati's run game will be New England's biggest challenge. In his past six games at home, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 112 of 181 passes (61.9 percent) for 1,208 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 99.0. On the other side, the Patriots are still not sure if wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski will be active but either way, the Patriots will find it tough going on offense. The Cincinnati defense is ranked 13th in the league in total defense (334 ypg), 13th against the pass (235 ypg) and 10th against the run (99 ypg). We play against road underdogs or pickems after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (420) Cincinnati Bengals

We easily won with New Orleans on Monday night as it took care of Miami at home to improve to 4-0 on the season. While the Saints are making a move back into the elite status of the league and once again in the Super Bowl talk, this game does not set up well for them. Three of their wins have come at home while the only road victory was a tow-point win at lowly Tampa Bay and while they should have won that game by more, the fact is they didn't as playing on the road has not been easy for New Orleans. The Saints could be caught in a letdown/lookahead as coming off a primetime win over another undefeated team, they have a game at New England next week. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the first of back-to-back road games. Chicago suffered its first loss of the season last week in Detroit and while we were on the right side of that ticket, it did get a little too close for comfort. The Bears actually won the yardage battle but a lot of that came late as quarterback Jay Cutler finally woke up after three interceptions and trailing 40-16 but it was too little, too late. I expect a big bounceback from him and from the defense and with a game against the disappointing Giants on deck, there will be full focus this Sunday. Additionally, after playing two straight road games, a trip back home is what they need and they are 5-1 over their last six games coming off at least two straight road games. While the Saints offense gets the praise, it is the defense that has really done a remarkable job under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. They are sixth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense and while they shut down Atlanta in the opener, the last three games have not exactly been against offensive juggernauts. The Bears are third in the NFL in scoring offense and they have faced some strong defenses along the way. While the passing game is strong, Matt Forte has continued to be a big-play threat either running the ball or as a back out of the backfield and he is averaging 4.6 ypc. Surprisingly, the Chicago defense has been fairly tame as poor tackling Sunday plagued a defense that is ranked 20th with 384.0 ypg allowed and 26th with 28.5 ppg allowed. They have forced 14 turnovers which could be the key here. Chicago has an excellent situation on its side as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off three or more consecutive overs while averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (426) Chicago Bears

Last week was a surprise to most with Oklahoma St. going into West Virginia and losing its first game of the season. The Mountaineers were 2-2 with wins over William & Mary and Georgia St. but they were able to put together a solid gameplan and take down the Cowboys. It was a revenge game for West Virginia as it was blown out in Stillwater by 21 points last season and head coach Dana Holgorsen certainly wanted to avenge that loss against his former team where he was the offensive coordinator. The Cowboys made a ton of mistakes, including two missed field goals, two poor punts of 20 yards or less, dropped balls, inaccurate throws and three turnovers. Now it is up to the Cowboys to bounce back at home where they have lost only once in their last 14 games and that was as an underdog against Texas last season. Kansas St. is coming off a loss as well even though that was two weeks ago at Texas so it has had two weeks to prepare for this game. I am not sold on the Wildcats at all after losing so much from last season when they went 11-2 and through four games, they have already matched that los total. The two victories have come against UL-Lafayette and Massachusetts which are very unimpressive and now they face another tough road test against a team coming off an upset loss. The Cowboys running game was nonexistent last week against the Mountaineers as they managed only 111 yards on 40 carries (2.8 ypc). They came in with one of the most potent rushing attacks but never got it going but that changes here. The Wildcats, which brought only two starters back on defense, are ranked 89th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 185.5 ypg. Additionally, they are ranked just 54th in total defense. Conversely, the Cowboys are 23rd in rushing defense and 19th in passing efficiency defense. Saturday's game marks only the second time in Oklahoma St.'s last eight games that the Cowboys will play in front of their home crowd. When the off-season is factored in, the Cowboys will have played one home game in the 325-day span between their game against Texas Tech on Nov. 17 of last year and Saturday's game. This will be a huge home edge because of that. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games off a road loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (362) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

We won with Troy last week as the Trojans stayed within the number against Duke and now they head home following a three-game roadtrip. Troy did go 0-3 in those games but played well against Duke as it was outgained by only two yards while posting a 29-21 first down edge and before that, it lost by a touchdown at Arkansas St. but outgained the Red Wolves by 75 yards. The Trojans are 2-0 at home with an overtime win over UAB to open the season and then followed that up with a blowout victory over Savannah St. The current three-game losing streak is keeping this number down and in comparison to a year ago, the Trojans were favored by eight points on the road and are now just a three-point home favorite. While this is a play based on the situation for Troy, it is also a big play against South Alabama as it finds itself in a very tough letdown spot. The Jaguars are coming off a game at Tennessee and after falling behind 31-7 midway through the third quarter, they fought back with 17 unanswered points and had a chance to tie or win the game as they were driving but tossed a game-ending interception in the endzone on fourth down. It was a devastating loss and that was shown by the players reaction after the game so coming back from that will be difficult. There were no doubt a lot of positives to come out of that game but I believe the negative result outweighs those. Troy has only five home games all season long and it follows this up with two more road games adding even more importance to this one. The Trojans cannot afford to fall to 0-2 in the Sun Belt Conference and what better way to even the record than on homecoming. The Trojans are 96-18-1 at home under head coach Larry Blakeney and while they have been horrible of late as home favorites, only once have they been favored by a field goal or less since 2010. Troy is 117th in the nation in turnover margin as it has not been creating many but that is on our favor as it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games where it forced one or less turnovers. Additionally, we play on home favorites that are allowing 440 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg. This situation is 53-23 ATS (69.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (376) Troy Trojans

The Tar Heels are coming off their second straight loss as they lost at home against East Carolina by 24 points. It was a loss that can make or break a season as North Carolina fell to 1-3 and losing that bad at home can be fatal. After the loss, North Carolina senior running back A.J. Blue said his teammates had a "lack of focus" and "complacency." He said the Tar Heels may have looked down upon the Pirates and the Tar Heels held a players-only meeting the next day to "talk about what's going on, the things we've been noticing." That is a positive step and with everyone already writing north Carolina off, why is it getting only 7.5 points on the road after taking such a thrashing? Virginia Tech meanwhile went into Georgia Tech and pulled off the outright win last Thursday to improve to 4-1 on the season. The defense was outstanding but the offense is still a work in progress as the Hokies are 108th overall and 92nd in scoring offense while putting no more than 21 points in regulation against their four FBS opponents. Virginia Tech has outgained all five opponents but three of those came by a margin of 21 yards or fewer so it has been far from dominating. The Hokies are playing on homecoming with revenge in mind following a 14-point loss at Chapel Hill a year ago but that is not enough to give them a significant edge. We won with Virginia Tech last week but it was a touchdown underdog and playing the role of favorite has not been good as it is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games when laying chalk. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week as it allowed 36 first downs and the Pirates ran 101 plays, the most plays ever by an opponent. The Tar Heels are now 105th in the country in total defense, 112th in rushing defense, 108th in third-down conversion defense, 103rd in first-down defense, and tied for 93rd in scoring defense. Pretty bad for sure but facing the Hokies can cure some of the issues and the Tar Heels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Hokies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. They also fall into an enormous rebound situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games that are coming off a loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 38-9 ATS (80.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (355) North Carolina Tar Heels

Illinois came through with a blowout victory for us last week and while I wouldn't think that would help our cause with the line this week, it is not hurting it. The Illini rolled past Miami as they put up 601 total yards of offense and they easily could have put up more than the 50 points they scored but a win is a win and a cover is a cover. Illinois now hits the road for the first time this season although it did play a neutral site game against Washington in Chicago. Admittedly, this team has been dreadful on the road especially last season where it went 0-5 with all five of those games resulting in blowout losses. This is a new year and a new team however as the losing got contagious with nine straight losses to end last season but now things have gotten off to a much better start and the confidence level is up. Nebraska is off to a 3-1 start with this being its fifth straight home game to open the season. The Huskers are coming off a bye week as well so the added preparation time is in their favor but it may not even matter here. Illinois showed a lot of balance against the RedHawks and it will test a Nebraska defense that has struggled against the run and with the spread. Nebraska struggled against Wyoming to open the season and after getting past a bad Southern Mississippi team, it got torched by UCLA before rebounding against South Dakota St. of the FCS. One situation that I like is double-digit underdogs with potent offenses facing bad defenses as the backdoor is always open. The days if the "Blackshirts" in Nebraska are long gone as the huskers ranked 107th in the nation in total defense, 86th in rushing defense, 105th in passing defense and 75th in scoring defense. And this is against the 121st ranked schedule in the nation so expect things to get worse before they get better. The Illini come in with the 35th ranked total offense and 25th ranked scoring offense so they will be moving the ball and scoring points. It will be up to their defense to slow down the Nebraska offense just enough to be able to keep up and that should be no issue. They fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that are averaging 450 or more ypg, after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 33-6 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Nebraska is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games after a win by 28 or more points. 10* (339) Illinois Fighting Illini

It has been a very tough start for San Diego St. as it opened the season at 0-3 and it was looking at 0-4 right in the face after trailing New Mexico St. 16-5 at halftime last week. The Aztecs responded with a 21-0 second half against the Aggies to grab their first win of the season and I believe that second half is going to jump start this team that was expected to make some noise in the MWC this season. The good news is that the first four games were all nonconference contests so they begin conference action now and sitting at 0-0, it is a brand new season. We played on San Diego St. in its last game before New Mexico St. and it was able to cover at home against Oregon St. despite losing. San Diego St. has yet to get a victory at home this season and with this game on national television, this is the perfect opportunity for that to finally happen. Friday marks San Diego St.'s first regular-season home game to be shown on ESPN?since Nov. 27, 1999 so this is a big deal. Nevada is 3-2 with all three wins coming at home and both losses taking place on the road. Those two losses were at UCLA and Florida St. so we can put an asterisk next to those games but until they can prove they can win on the road, the Wolf Pack will be a fade after two horrible showings. The Wolf Pack have won two straight games but both of those were at home and they almost blew it last week against Air Force while prior to that, they defeated Hawaii but were outgained by 36 total yards. The offense came to life last week as they gained more than 353 total yards over an FBS team for the first time. The return of quarterback Cody Fajardo last week was a big one so the Aztecs will have its hands full on defense. Aztecs running back Donnel Pumphrey is coming off a career game against New Mexico St. by rushing for 167 yards and three touchdowns. After what Air Force did to the Wolf Pack defense, this might be a key concern for the front seven. Nevada allowed Air Force to average 7.4 ypc, and many of these were running plays the gashed right up the middle of the Wolf Pack's defense. The defense has struggled to contain the run all season as it has allowed at least 345 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in three of its five games this season. We play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight conference wins going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (312) San Diego St. Aztecs

We have seen this line go up already from opening and it will likely be on the rise more once the public gets involved on Thursday more toward gametime. UCLA has gotten off to a strong start at 3-0 and it is outgaining foes by an average of 275.3. ypg which is certainly a dominating margin. But I am not sure if this team is for real or if the Bruins are dominating due to playing a soft early schedule. Wins over Nevada and New Mexico St. are far from impressive and while the win over Nebraska looks good on paper, the Huskers are a question mark as well. UCLA was actually down by 11 points at halftime before outscoring Nebraska 31-0 in the second half so it caught fire while the Huskers basically sat down. Utah comes in 3-1 with the only loss coming in overtime against Oregon St. which turned into a shootout. The Utes own quality wins over Utah St. at home and BYU on the road and this is not a team to be taken lightly after a disappointing 5-7 season a year ago. The offense has been the key as after the Utes didn't hit 500 yards of total offense in any game in 2012, they are averaging 504.8 ypg through four games thus far. the main reason has been the emergence of quarterback Travis Wilson as he has thrown for over 1,100 yards while completing 64.3 percent of his passes and has a 166.6 quarterback rating. Additionally, he is also this team's second-leading rusher with 251 yards on 32 carries (7.8 ypc). UCLA is second in the nation in total offense, yes ahead of Oregon, averaging a whopping 614.3 ypg. The Bruins are also third in scoring offense, putting up an average of 52.7 ppg and while this team may look unstoppable, a good defense can slow them down. The Bruins have played defenses ranked 113th, 107th and 123rd and while the season is young making it a small sample size and UCLA has contributed to those rankings, the other games played by those stop units have not been very good. Utah is ranked 74th in total defense and while that is below average, it is the best UCLA has seen. One of the places the Utes improved against BYU was in the secondary, which came up with an interception and helped force 30 incompletions. Slowing down UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley will be important as his numbers rival those of Wilson's. UCLA is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins while Utah is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games coming off a win as an underdog. 10* (308) Utah Utes

Two surprising teams square off on Thursday as the Bills and Browns both come into this game with a 2-2 record following big wins over playoff teams. Buffalo has adjusted well to the new coaching staff and schemes but while the two losses have been by a combined nine points, the two victories have been by just four points so feasibly, this team could be sitting at 1-3 or even 0-4 based on a couple plays. Both wins have come at home with a loss coming in their only road and hitting the highway has not been a good thing for the Bills as they are 2-14 over their last 16 road games. Playing on a short week after facing the defending Super Bowl champions does not help and even though we saw the 49ers win on the road last week, the home team has a significant edge on Thursday night games. Cleveland has won two straight games to get back to .500 and it has been the more dominating of the two teams. The Browns have outgained three of four opponents while getting outgained by Baltimore by just 37 yards. Overall, they are +32.3 in yardage margin, compared to the bills which are -49.7 ypg in margin. Playing at home on a short week only helps as does the fact Cleveland will be out for some revenge after losing here 53 weeks ago against Buffalo. A win would put the Browns over. 500 for the first time since the third game of the 2011 season and they have not won three of their first five games in 12 seasons. This is their only primetime game this season so they will be out making the most of it. While Brian Hoyer has gotten most of the publicity for the Browns, and it is well deserved, it is the defense that is making the difference. On Sunday, the Browns held the Bengals to just two field goals and 63 rushing yards in a 17-6 win. The previous week, the Browns limited Adrian Peterson to 88 yards and forced three key turnovers in a 31-27 victory. Overall, they have held three of four opponents to season lows in yardage. And the rushing defense has been as it best as through four games, the Browns are allowing just 2.9 ypc which is lowest in the NFL and they are the only defense not to give up a run of 15 yards or longer. Cleveland is capable of forcing opponents into a one-dimensional game plan that is difficult to sustain against a defense that is stout at the point of attack and explosive on the edges. Consequently, the Browns rank third in the NFL in total defense and eighth in points allowed. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games road after playing a game at home, losing those games by an average 17.5 ppg. Cleveland meanwhile is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a win against a divisional opponent as an underdog. 10* (302) Cleveland Browns

Seven teams were sitting at 3-0 heading into the weekend and two square off on Monday night as the Dolphins and Saints look to remain undefeated. Miami is the bigger surprise at 3-0 even though expectations were risen after it spent a ton of money in the offseason. Still, being undefeated is a shock to some considering the first two wins came on the road followed up by a win over the Falcons last week. Personally I am not sold on this team quite yet despite being eighth in the NFL in scoring defense and 11th in scoring offense. Why? Miami is just 22nd in total defense and 26th in total offense and it has been outgained in each of its three games. This includes being outrushed in all three games and being outpassed in two of those so the Dolphins can be considered the worst of the undefeated teams with the Bears close by. And the Bears are no longer in that group after Sunday. The fact that New Orleans is undefeated is not really a surprise despite it having a poor season a year ago. The absence of head coach Sean Payton was a huge part of it but with him being back and a new defense that has improved immensely, the Saints are looking to rise back into the elite category of the NFL. The schedule has been pretty tame with the Cardinals and Buccaneers being the last two victories and while the win over Atlanta is not looking as good as once thought, it is still a very good start. New Orleans is middle of the pack in scoring offense as some costly turnovers have taken place at the wrong time. The Saints are sixth in total offense and most of that production has taken place at home where they have been dominant once again. The defense has been the surprise though as they are fourth overall and fifth in scoring. Pressuring the quarterback has been paying off and will do so once again here as the Dolphins offensive line is in shambles. While New Orleans has only sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times, the Saints have hit them 11 times and hurried them another 39 times. As brought up in the Seattle analysis from Sunday, the fact that Miami is 3-0 against the number this season actually brings up an interesting contrarian angle. Since 2004, 32 teams have opened the season a perfect 3-0 ATS but rarely do they make it to 4-0 ATS as those teams have gone a combined 11-21 ATS (34.4 percent) in that fourth game. The Saints have won their last eight Monday Night Football games and have won 10 consecutive primetime home matchups. In those ten games, the Saints have outscored their opponents 356-176. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10* (226) New Orleans Saints

It is no surprise that the Patriots are off to a 3-0 start or is it? This is actually the first time since 2007 that they have started off the season 3-0 and that was the year they went 18-0 before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. That team won its first three games by 79 points combined while the 2013 New England team has won its first three games by just 25 points combined and two of the wins have been by two and three points. Now things will be a lot tougher and we are clearly seeing that in the number as the Patriots go from being favorites by more than a touchdown in each of their first three games to being an underdog this week. A slight underdog but an underdog nonetheless. The Falcons came close to making it to the Super Bowl last season but just fell short so expectations are very high this season. Things have not started according to plan as Atlanta is just 1-2 but the schedule has not been in its favor as the Falcons have played the seventh toughest schedule and the Patriots will be the third team so far on the slate that is off to a 3-0 start. The two losses to the other two undefeated teams could have gone either way so feasibly they could be sitting at 3-0 right now. That makes this game that much bigger as getting off to a 1-3 start will make things difficult to even think about winning the division let alone grabbing the home field edge in the playoffs even though it is still very early. The Patriots meanwhile have played the easiest schedule in the league so far and this will be just their second road game of the year after opening in Buffalo. The Patriots offense has been average at best and it is the running game that has been the catalyst as quarterback Tom Brady is still getting used to his new receiving corps. It will be key for the Falcons to slow down the running game and all indications say they will as through three games, Atlanta's defense is holding opponents to 79.0 ypg and 3.8 ypc, which puts the Falcons back in the top 10 in terms of run defense. On the other side, the explosive Falcons offense will be facing a tough New England defense but playing at home will be a big advantage there. The Falcons fall into a tremendous league-wide situation as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (224) Atlanta Falcons

We lost with the Jaguars last week in Seattle but I am not afraid to jump back on them here this week in what is a great spot for them as well as a horrible spot for the Colts. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and while it is one of six teams at 0-3, it is pretty clear which team is at the bottom. The Jaguars are -64 in point differential but the worse and worse they look, the better they become at the betting markets as this line has now hit nine points in some places and while that is mostly for teaser protection, it is a great number to be on. In composition, when the Colts played here last season, they were favored by three points with Jacksonville coming off five straight losses so what has really changed since then? Indianapolis is coming off a monster win at San Francisco last week to move to 2-1 on the season as it was able to bounce back from its home loss against Miami the previous week. The Colts now hit the road again before heading back home next week to take on Seattle so this is the classic example of a letdown/lookahead situation even though this is a divisional game. While we have already touched on the value of this line from a Jacksonville perspective, we can look at the value going against the Colts as they are making an incredible 20-point in the spread from last week and that is usually unheard of in the NFL. Still, it comes as no surprise that 82 percent of the action is on the Colts yet the line has not budged in most places. Clearly the Colts are the better team in this matchup but as we all know, the better teams do not always win in this league. Winning against the spread in the NFL usually means winning ugly and that is the case here. Indianapolis can escape with a victory and that is just fine as we do not need the Jaguars outright anyway. We have three solid angles that favor the Jaguars. First, we play against teams after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 48-19 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Third, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 14 or fewer ppg, after a loss by 28 or more points. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. 10* (206) Jacksonville Jaguars

Chicago is off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2010 before it lost in Week Four in its second road game of the season and I am seeing a repeat of that here. The Bears are lucky to be undefeated right now. They rallied from an 11-point deficit against the Bengals in their season opener and then the next week against the Vikings, they waited until the final seconds to stage the rally as they scored the game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. The Bears have become the hunted now and will have a tough tine in looking for their first 4-0 start in seven years. Detroit can grab a share of the early division lead Sunday after earning its first-ever win at Washington last week, 27-20. that pushed Detroit to 2-1 on the season and made up for a tough loss at Arizona the previous week and now the Lions head back home in search of their first two-game winning streak since the middle part of last season. 2012 was a nightmare as after making the playoffs the previous year, Detroit fell to 4-12 last season but were certainly one of the better 4-12 teams in recent memory considering the Lions outgained their opponents in 11 of those 16 games. The issue was turnovers as Detroit had only one game where the offense did not commit one while the defense had six games of not taking one away. Five more games resulted in just one takeaway and overall it was -16 in turnover differential with only the Eagles and Chiefs being worse. That is why this year's version is considered a sleeper by many to make a playoff run. This is a very big game as it is the only home game in a five-game stretch including a game at Green Bay next week. The Chicago defense has been very opportunistic even it has not been very dominating overall. The Bears are tied for 19th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg and are ranked 25th in total defense at 383.0 ypg but they've scored three defensive touchdowns in the last two games while recovering six fumbles and intercepting five passes. Last week was a prime example of how turnovers can make the difference in the game as Chicago won the turnover battle against the Steelers 5-0. The Bears won by 17 points but were outgained by 201 total yards and they are the lone undefeated team in the NFL that is actually getting outgained on the season. The Bears are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games while going 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (212) Detroit Lions

Tulane was expected to have a much better season this year than it has had over the last couple years and was even being talked about in making its first bowl game since 2002. While that is still a long way off, the Green Wave are off to a 2-2 start and those two victories have already matched their win totals from both 2012 and 2011 so they are headed in the right direction. Last week, the Green Wave lost at Syracuse but despite the blowout on the scoreboard, it was a misleading final score as Tulane was outgained by just 75 total yards as a 2-0 turnover differential s well as having two punts blocked were the difference as that led to 28 points for the Orange. Prior to the 35-point loss at Syracuse, the last five Tulane losses going back to last season were by five points or fewer so things have definitely tightened up. Meanwhile, UL-Monroe got blasted at Baylor by 63 points and that was not a misleading final score as the Warhawks were completely dominated, getting outgained by 486 total yards. And that was before the Bears let off the gas in the fourth quarter so it could have been even worse. That is going to be a tough loss to come back from in my opinion and even though UL-Monroe did bounce back from its only other loss, a 34-0 setback against Oklahoma, the situation is different here. Add to the fact the Warhawks open SBC play next week on Thursday gives us even more confidence that this one will not be focused on fully. One of the biggest areas Tulane was expected to improve in was the defense and we have seen it thus far. The Green Wave have allowed close to 10 ppg fewer and over 100 ypg fewer than it did last season so progress is certainly being made. The offense also needed a boost and while the numbers are not great, they are up from last season including scoring where Tulane is averaging more than a touchdown more than it did last season. JUCO transfer Nick Montana is picking up the offense nicely and considering he originally signed with Washington, the potential is definitely there. The Warhawks are struggling both offensively and defensively and while playing a tougher schedule has played into that, I do not like the spot they are in at all. Tulane comes in looking for some payback following its 53-point loss against the Warhawks almost a year to the day. It was easily their worst loss of the season and that brings in more than 100 percent effort here. Tulane is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog in the second of consecutive road games while the Warhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 20 points. Additionally, we play on teams after allowing 42 points or more last game going up against an opponent after a loss by 28 or more points. This situation is 60-25 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (165) Tulane Green Wave

I played against Wyoming last week and we got burned by the Cowboys as they improved to a perfect 4-0 ATS and are now becoming a public darling early in the season. That means inflated lines and a team we can sell off high right now which I firmly believe is the case here. I felt we were getting value with Air Force last week but we are getting significant value this week. The 3-1 start by Wyoming is a surprise to some after a 4-8 season a year ago but this is definitely a solid team and the start is not a fluke. But asking the Cowboys to lay this many points on the road is an issue considering they have not been double-digit road favorites since October of 1999 and no that is not a typo. Texas St. is in its third year in the FBS and it has been a decent transition as it is 12-15 overall including 2-1 this season. Granted the victories have not been against the best of opposition but this is definitely a team that no one should be sleeping on. Head coach Dennis Franchione is a proven winner and with 15 starters back from last season, this team could make some noise in the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are coming off a loss last week at Texas Tech and while they gave up a lot of offense, they allowed only two offensive touchdowns against one of the most prolific offenses in the country as they held the Red Raiders to four field goals. Overall, the scoring defense is tied for 26th in the country so slowing down the potent Wyoming offense can definitely be done. Texas Sta. is ranked third nationally and leads the Sun Belt Conference in turnover margin with an average margin of 2.78 per game and that alone can be a difference maker. The Bobcats registered three interceptions against Texas Tech last week. Additionally, Texas St.'s defense is ranked eighth nationally and leads the Sun Belt Conference in red-zone defense with a percentage of .571 through its first three games. Getting pressure on Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith will be a key factor here and the Bobcats should be able to do that. Dating back to the season finale last year against New Mexico St., they have had 12 quarterback sacks in their last four games. The Bobcats have seen all three of their games stay under the total and that is to our advantage as lower scoring games usually tend to favor the underdog which has been the case both times for Texas St. and especially when it involves a double-digit underdog. Texas St. has covered five of its last six games at home and that includes two closer than expected games against Nevada and Louisiana Tech last season. The Cowboys meanwhile are 1-5 in their last six games against teams with a winning record while going 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games after having won three out of their last four games. 10* (180) Texas St. Bobcats

Bowling Green opened the season with a pair of lopsided wins against Tulsa and Kent St. before taking its own thumping when it travelled to Indiana. The Falcons bounced back with a win against Murray St. of the FCS this past week as they won by 41 points while outgaining the Racers by 348 total yards. They return to MAC action this weekend but I do not believe the level of opposition rises too much here despite what we have seen the last couple weeks. Bowling Green is already 1-0 in the MAC and with a game against Massachusetts next week, there will be no looking past Akron this week especially considering the two tight games the Zips have been a part of. Akron lost to UCF to open the season and then went on to defeat James Madison at home despite getting outgained by 142 total yards. Facing Michigan in their next game was supposed to be a blowout but the Zips nearly pulled off the unthinkable upset as more than five-touchdown underdogs and instead of not letting that game go, they nearly won against last week but lost by five points at home against Louisiana. Now they open MAC play at one of the East Division favorites and coming off two tough losses, I just do not see how Akron will be able to hang around in this game. The Zips have been struggling for a while now as they are 4-36 over their last 40 games dating back to the start of the 2010 season and three of those wins came against teams from the FCS. The lone victory against an FBS team came in 2010 at home against Buffalo which went on to finish 2-10 that year so Akron has been completely outclassed by the better teams. The defense has been a big issue for Akron as they have allowed at least 35 ppg in those past three seasons and this season it is better but not by much, allowing 33.5 ppg which is 99th in the nation. Bowling Green is 19th in the country in total offense and should have no issues marching up and down the field here. Time of possession is heavily in the Falcons favor as well as they are ranked third in the nation while Akron comes in ranked 103rd, with close to 10 minutes per game differential. A letdown because of a big win from Bowling Green has not been an issue as it is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a win of more than 20 points. Also, the Falcons have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while going 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Akron. Additionally, we play on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a home win by 28 points or more, with four or more total starters returning than opponent. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (170) Bowling Green Falcons

Illinois closes its nonconference part of the schedule this week before Big Ten play opening up next weekend. The Illini have had a week off following their first loss of the season against Washington which took place at Soldier Field so they are back on their home field where they are 2-0 thus far. This is a big number we are backing but I think it could be even bigger and is more than justified. The marquee win so far was here against Cincinnati as they blew out the Bearcats by 28 points. Coincidentally, that is the same team that Miami lost to last week as it was shutout at home 14-0. That is a very misleading final score however as the RedHawks managed only four first down and 87 total yards while Cincinnati put up 369 yards and 24 first downs but could not score until the fourth quarter. Three turnovers and some questionable playcalling was the difference in the Bearcats not rolling by much more. That final score is helping us out here as it is part of the reason the line is lower than it should be. Miami is ranked 123rd in total offense, 120th in rushing offense, 121st in passing offense and 121st in scoring offense so you can see how inept this team has been. The other side of the ball is not much better as the defense is ranked 108th or worse in the four categories and overall, the RedHawks are ranked 100th or worse in 15 of 25 statistical categories that the NCAA keeps track of. We knew coming on this team would not be very good and it has actually been even worse than expected. The RedHawks entered the season opener with 12 seniors, 14 juniors, 23 sophomores and 51 freshmen. Coming off a loss where the game was scoreless after three quarters against Cincinnati in a big rival game for the Victory Bell makes this spot even tougher for the RedHawks. Illinois has not been totally consistent but the offense has shown some excellent signs and giving offensive coordinator Bill Cubit an additional week to add in new plays could only bolster an Illinois offense that has already exceeded expectations. Although having nine starters back on offense from last season definitely helps. The Illini defense got lit up by Washington pretty bad but I am not concerned at all about facing this Miami offense that has converted three third down conversions all season long (3-40). Illinois falls into an awesome scheduling situation as we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are coming off a bye week. This situation is 44-9 ATS (83 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This includes a perfect 9-0 record over the last three seasons with the average point differential being +35.1 ppg over those 53 games. Additionally, Miami is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. 10* (132) Illinois Fighting Illini

The Spartans opened the season with a win over Sacramento St. of the FCS but they have since dropped their last two games. They lost at Stanford which came as no surprise although they did hang around for longer than most expected. San Jose St. then lost at Minnesota last week by 19 points however that is a deceiving final score as the Spartans were far from dominated. San Jose St. lost the turnover battle 3-0 and went just 1-9 on third down conversions so that was the difference between keeping the game close and losing as bad as it did. This is a big game for them as they are coming off two road games with two more road games on deck so winning at home becomes even more important. We played on Utah St. last week as the Aggies were able to keep it close enough against USC to give them their third straight cover. The public has fallen in love with this Aggie team and why not considering they are 13-2-1 ATS since the start of last season but I feel they are overpriced in this one. Utah St. is already 1-0 in the MWC after defeating Air Force three games back on the road but the test will be a lot tougher here in my opinion. They are coming off a tough loss and that could be tough to recover from. "I'd rather lose by 100 than three, so it hurts," Aggies cornerback Nevin Lawson said. "I can tell it hurts the team that we were the better team but ended up losing." This is a pretty big revenge game for the Spartans as they were embarrassed last year in San Jose. Utah St. recorded 13 sacks while allowing San Jose St. to gain just four yards rushing. Still, when he wasn't eating turf, quarterback David Fales, who entered the year as a highly rated 2014 NFL Draft prospect, put up 467 yards and three touchdowns on the Aggies and he is having an outstanding season thus far. On a positive note for the Spartans, their offensive line did not allow a single sack to the Gophers after allowing three to Stanford. Let's not forget that the Spartans went 11-2 last season and they return 13 starters as well so this is a very solid team that matches up well with speed. San Jose St. is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog over the last three seasons while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Also, the Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, Utah St. is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite coming off a nonconference game. We have the luxury of catching a number at home and a big number for that matter. A close game even without a win cashes a ticket. 10* (110) San Jose St. Spartans

It is gut check time for the 49ers. For the first time since Jim Harbaugh became head coach, San Francisco is under .500 for the season. Granted, it is only his third season but still. A loss here could be devastating even though it is early as the 49ers could feasibly find themselves three games behind Seattle in the NFC West come Sunday afternoon. A loss at Seattle was not overly shocking as it took place on the road but a home loss against the Colts in the follow up game was definitely shocking. The two games lost by a combined 46 points but San Francisco was outgained by just 83 and 82 in those games which makes us believe something is up. And it is. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 7-1 in those contests and they will not be winning many games going that, nor will many others. The Rams have an identical 1-2 record as they won at home but lost both games on the road. A return home would ideally help here but playing a Super Bowl contender coming off two losses is not what the doctor ordered. The lone St. Louis victory came against Arizona so it certainly wasn't a quality win but despite its own pooor play, don't think the 49ers are going to be taking this team lightly. St. Louis has given them fits, especially last season when they played to a tie in San Francisco while the Rams won in overtime at home in the second meeting. That game brings up a very interesting point as well. The 49ers were favored by 7.5 points then and now they are favored by just a field goal showing how the betting markets are taking this early poor start way out too seriously. There is no way the Rams have closed the gap by four points over a span of seven games where they have gone 3-4. The status for the 49ers two star defensive players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis is not good as Smith is in rehab and Willis has a groin injury that will keep both of them out here. That no doubt hurts the defense but the Rams have not shown much as they are 23rd in scoring offense and 18th in total offense. The running game has been putrid as St. Louis is 29th in yards and 27th in ypc average. However, defensively is where the Rams have really been bad as they are 26th in both scoring and overall and if there is a game that San Francisco can break out of its offensive woes, this is the one. The Thursday night home crowd will be loud but it will not be enough to keep the 49ers slumping. San Francisco falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

We played against Virginia Tech last week as Marshall hung tough and eventually lost in triple overtime. The Hokies survived a scare and now head to Georgia Tech for their ACC opener. Last season was a huge disappointment for Virginia Tech as it failed to record double-digit wins for the first time since 2003 and fans were calling for head coach Frank Beamer's head. A big season this year will dissipate that and that is what I am expecting, especially in ACC play. Georgia Tech is 3-0 for only the second time since 2006 and it got away with one last week against North Carolina after taking care of Elon and Duke, certainly not the best of competition. It is hard to figure out what is going on with Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas as he has regressed over the last three years, completing 59.8 percent of his passes in 2011 to 51.3 percent last year to 48.5 percent this year. That is certainly part of the reason the offense is ranked 102nd in the nation in total offense and 85th in scoring offense. The redzone offense has been a letdown but some of Virginia Tech's scoring issues are kicking-related. The Hokies have missed six consecutive field goals the past two games. Redshirt senior Cody Journell will be the team's starting place kicker Thursday night though after a bad game against East Carolina and then a suspension last week. He was 36 of his 44 career field goals before slipping up against the Pirates. The Yellow Jackets are once again one of the top rushing teams in the nation as they are ranked fourth, averaging 345.3 ypg. They do not throw the ball much but when they do, they have been efficient as they are fifth in offensive passing efficiency compared to just 115th in passing offense. It is never easy for a defense to prepare for this offense but Virginia Tech has done an excellent job the last couple years and the Hokies defense is again playing at a high level while nine returning starters does not hurt. To compensate the short rest, the Hokies spent their past several Sunday practices on Georgia Tech preparation. They are fifth in the country in total defense, 15th in rushing defense and sixth in passing efficiency defense. This is a big reason they have won the yardage battle in each of their four games including Alabama. Virginia Tech lost that game by 25 points but three of Alabama's five touchdowns were by the special teams and defense. This has been a very low scoring series of late as five of the last six games have stayed under the total. That is good news for the underdog which has covered in each of those games that stayed below the number and this year, we are seeing the lowest posted over/under over the last five years which means another low scoring game is expected. 10* (103) Virginia Tech Hokies

After a high scoring game last night in the Primetime slot, the betting markets are expecting another high scoring game tonight with Denver taking the field. The Broncos have easily surpassed the total in each of their first two games as the offense has led the way, scoring 49 points against the Ravens and 41 points against the Giants. They have started 30 drives, 11 resulting in touchdowns and two more producing field goals. Peyton Manning has opened the season with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and he is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw nine touchdowns and no interceptions in the first two weeks of a season. After a 4-12 season last year, the Raiders have shown signs of improvement in the early weeks of this season. The defense is light years ahead of where they were last year and that has been a major key to their early success. The offense has taken a step back in the passing game, but the ground game has found some traction. The Raiders will stay committed to trying to get the ground game going as the best defense against Denver is to keep Manning and the offense off the field. Denver's run defense ranks first in the league, in part because opponents have been forced to abandon the ground game after falling so far behind. Ball control is key and having the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL certainly does not hurt. The Raiders pass rush is going to be key to the defense putting up a challenge, as when opposing quarterbacks have had time in the pocket that have picked apart the Raiders secondary. Oakland has nine sacks this season which is a result of great pressure and good blitz calls from different angles and positions. Protecting Manning has been a strength of the Broncos offensive line but with the absence of left tackle Ryan Clady and center Dan Koppen, Denver is down two starters to their offensive line. Oakland is 25-11 to the Under in its last 36 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 5-1 to the Under in its last six divisional games. Meanwhile the Broncos are 6-2-1 to the Under in their last nine divisional games. 10* Under (419) Oakland Raiders/(420) Denver Broncos

The Ravens bounced back from their season opening loss at Denver with a home win against Cleveland this past Sunday although it was far from pretty and far from dominating. Baltimore could have easily been sidetracked from all of the Super Bowl celebrations going on but now with that in the rearview mirror, I am expecting a full focus this Sunday. The indifferent start for Baltimore has it now listed a home underdog this week which I think is the wrong role and definitely at the wrong time. Houston is off to a 2-0 starts and while it has won the yardage battle by 186 yards and 204 yards in those games, the victories have come by just a combined nine points including a win in overtime last week against the Texans. Houston has yet to make it over the hump during the playoffs as it has defeated Cincinnati in the first round each of the last two years only to lose in the next round, both of which were on the road. The Texans have been a pretty solid road team during the regular season the last two years, going 11-5 but they have gone four straight games on the highway without covering. I think the big surprise here is that they are favorites on the road despite posting a 0-2 ATS record in their first two games and teams in this situation are a dismal 8-21-1 ATS when going up against a team coming off a win. It is no secret that Baltimore lost a lot during the offseason on both sides of the ball and it has definitely showed in the overall rankings through two weeks but I do not think it is anything to be alarmed by considering the Ravens will only get better with each game. To take some pressure off Joe Flacco and his receivers, the Ravens have to run the ball more. Against the Broncos, Flacco passed the ball 62 times while the one-two punch of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce only got 21 combined carries. Against Cleveland, Flacco passed 24 times while the Ravens ran the ball only seven times in the fist half. Once balanced was achieved in the second half with a concerted effort to run the ball, Baltimore scored two second half touchdowns. While the Texans defense gets a lot of pub, they have not performed well this season as the unit is 23rd in points allowed and while that can be skewed, it does show vulnerability as well. Ray Rice is questionable but Bernard Pierce is more than capable as makes people miss and has a career 4.5 ypc average. A real clincher is the revenge factor. Baltimore went to Houston last season and got thumped 43-13 and that was the worst loss ever for a John Harbaugh coached Ravens team. This game has been circled for 11 months. 10* (398) Baltimore Ravens

Washington was the sexy pick to make a deep run into the playoffs this year after a great ending to last season but after a 0-2 start, people have started to get sour on the Redskins. The season is far from over and the winless start has put Washington in a desperation mode already and that actually sets up well here. We are catching a very short price with the Redskins which are back home for their first Sunday game of the season in Washington. The situation is pretty simple in that Washington needs to get off to a better start if they want any chance in this game. The Redskins have trailed by a combined score of 50-7 at halftime through the first two games so playing from behind has dealt them no chance of catching up. That changes here. The Lions opened the season with a solid home win over the Vikings before stumbling last week in Arizona. Detroit held an eight-point lead late in the third quarter but it was outscored 12-0 down the stretch to make it four straight losses on the road dating back to last season. Nonetheless, the Lions are still getting too much credit as they were favored last week and are getting a shorter than anticipated price this week which is confusing to me. Put this team on the carpet and they can compete with anyone but they are far from the best team we have seen on grass. Detroit is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a loss when favored including a 0-4 ATS record last season and they are also 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games against a non-divisional opponent that is coming off consecutive losses. The matchup does seem to favor the Lions as they bring in one of the top passing offenses in the league to face the worst passing defense in the NFL. The Redskins are allowing a league-worst QB rating of 135.4 but they faced an unknown Eagles offense in their first game and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay in their second game and those are two tough matchups. I think this is the easiest of the three thus far and let's not forget the Lions will likely be without running back Reggie Bush. They were scoreless against Arizona once he left the game. On the other side, RGIII is in his third game and he could be in for a massive day. Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is 18-6-1 ATS in his 25 games coming off consecutive losses against an opponent off a loss and Washington falls into a great situation on top of it. Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (404) Washington Redskins

Tennessee heads back to Nashville for its home opener following what was a very successful two-game roadtrip to open the season. The Titans went into Pittsburgh and defeated the Steelers opening weekend and they had a chance to make it a sweep last week as they took Houston into overtime before losing on a Matt Schaub touchdown pass. The offense remains a work in progress as they have yet to eclipse 250 yards of offense in a game but the defense has played good enough for them to be successful. To their credit, the titans have played two very strong defenses in the Steelers and Texans and now they square off against the 31st-ranked Chargers defense so the offense has the potential for a big game. After losing a heartbreaker against Houston on opening weekend, the Chargers did not hang their heads as they went into Philadelphia last week and defeated the Eagles with a field goal with seven seconds remaining. Now San Diego has to head back east once again putting it in a tough situation coming off that big win. Quarterback Philip Rivers seems reenergized as he is having a solid season through two games, throwing for 614 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception. He will be without Malcolm Floyd however who suffered a neck injury last week after putting up 102 receiving yards before going down. That is a big loss. While the Titans offense has been slowed, the play of quarterback Jake Locker last week was solid. He led two long scoring drives in the game and capped each of them with a touchdown pass. His six-yard touchdown connection with Kendall Wright in the first quarter completed an 80-yard drive, and in the fourth quarter, he directed a 99-yard march that ended with a 10-yard touchdown pass to tight end Delanie Walker. San Diego is dead last in the league in passing defense but it doesn't end there as the Chargers are allowing 4.3 ypc on the ground, and the Titans have made it clear that they will feed running back Chris Johnson the ball. Getting him going will set up the passing game even more. While history means little, the Chargers have won nine straight meetings in this series but it is the one last year that the Titans remember as they were slammed in San Diego 38-10 while getting outgained by over 200 total yards. Floyd had six receptions for 109 yards in that game but again, he will be out for this one. Taking care of the ball will be important for the Titans as they have yet to turn it over this season. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up victory while Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in its previous game. Additionally, San Diego is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (392) Tennessee Titans

Wyoming is off to a 2-1 start this season with the lone loss coming at Nebraska by just three points. That loss actually looked like a quality loss when it first happened but following the Huskers blowout home loss against UCLA this past weekend, it is not looking so good after all. The two Cowboys victories to follow came against Idaho, one of the worst teams in the FBS, and Northern Colorado, a below average team from the FCS. Wyoming is a perfect 3-0 against the number and because of this, it is now in the role of a road favorite which is certainly a rarity for this team. Air Force is also helping that out. The Falcons opened the season with an easy win over Colgate from the FCS but it has been all downhill from there. They remained home in their next games and got thumped by Utah St., losing by 32 points and getting outgained by 307 total yards. It did not help that quarterback Kale Pearson was injured in the previous game which put a lot of pressure on Jaleel Awini in his first start. The Falcons then went to Boise St. last week and played the Broncos tough for over three quarters before Boise St. scored the final two touchdowns of the games to pull away. Awini played a much better game and now with two starts under his belt and taking a big step down in class this week, he could be in line for that breakout game. Coming off their first losing season in six years, the Falcons came into this year with some high expectations despite just 10 starters returning mainly because they had just five coming back in 2012. the last two losses were definitely some confidence killers but a win here could turn the season around. Air Force has lost four straight MWC games dating back to last season, but they have played the conference's elite. It closed last season at San Diego St. and at Fresno St., who were tri-champions, opened this season against the Aggies in their first year in the MWC after finishing first in the WAC and then Boise St. last week. The four combined opponents were 27-3 in conference play and 40-12 overall last season so it has been a brutal stretch. The underdog has covered five straight meetings in this series and Air Force has a great situation on its side based on the end of lat year as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Wyoming is just 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games following wins in two of its previous three games. Look for the mild upset in Colorado Springs Saturday night. 10* (344) Air Force Falcons

Everyone is down on Texas right now and rightfully so. After a blowout win against New Mexico St. to open the season, the Longhorns were throttled at BYU the following week and instead of bouncing back after that, they were beaten badly against last week at home against Mississippi. The situation in Texas looks dire for head coach Mack Brown and company but this is a good opportunity to buy low and this is further proven by the early line for this game that came out in July at Texas -9. Even this line has come down from its opening this week at other sportsbooks and I think the value in this number is tremendous. It has been just the opposite for Kansas St. which opened the season with a home loss against North Dakota St. but then followed that up with two bounceback wins. Those games were against Massachusetts and Louisiana though so there is not to those victories if you ask me. Coming into the season, we knew that it was going to be a rebuilding year for the Wildcats as they lost their quarterback, top wide receiver and nine starters on defense so losing against the Bison in the season opener was not a huge surprise, especially considering they are the top ranked team in the FCS. As good as that is, Kansas St. should not be losing to any FCS team, especially at home, and now it hits the road for the first time this season. The Wildcats have owned this series with wins in five straight meetings but it wasn't like they dominated Texas in those games. It came down to turnovers which eventually gave them an edge in field position. In those five victories, the Wildcats average turnover margin is 2.6 (13 turnover margin in five games) and their average starting field position margin was 9.2, meaning they consistently started almost 10 yards closer to the end zone than Texas during the winning streak. This made a huge difference considering the Longhorns have averaged 369.8 ypg while holding Kansas St. to 274.2 ypg during the streak and the Wildcats have not won the yardage battle against Texas in any of those wins. Kansas St.'s offense has been horrible, going three-and-out 42 percent of the time and averaging 3.07 ypc during the win streak. The Texas defense has not looked very strong thus far this year but I see a big step up here. The big thing is attitude. The preparation and effort has always been there, and it is just a matter of going out and playing. Players on the defense said they are ready to go out and change what they have seen in the past two weeks and instead of breaking apart, which often causes an even worse downward spiral, the Longhorns' seniors have come together and tried to propel forward. The Longhorns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home, winning the last two occurrences by a combined score of 84-17. 10* (358) Texas Longhorns

Marshall is coming off a very frustrating loss last week against Ohio which put an end to its perfect start to the season. After blowing out two cupcakes to open the year, the Thundering Herd were awaiting their first test against the Bobcats and they would have passed it had they not lost the turnover battle 4-0. Marshall outgained Ohio 482-339, had a 28-19 first down edge and converted 9 of 13 on third down. One of the turnovers killed a Marshall drive while two others resulted in 10 points for Ohio. The Thundering Herd defense was outstanding as they allowed just 335 total yards including a mere 60 yards rushing on 36 carries (1.7 ypc). Now they go from more than a touchdown road favorite to nearly a double-digit road underdog which is a big swing for a team that has outgained their opponents by a combined 825 total yards. After getting blasted by Alabama by 25 points, Virginia bounced back against a helpless Western Carolina team as it outgained the Catamounts by 300 total yards in the 45.3 win. The Hokies then hit the road for the first time last week and snuck out a win against East Carolina by only five points. The Virginia Tech defense was outstanding as it allowed only 204 total yards to a very solid Pirates offense but its own offense struggled once again as it gained only 311 total yards including just 53 yards rushing on 34 carries (1.6 ypc). The Hokies return home which is a big edge as home field in Blacksburg is always a huge advantage but taking some of that away is the fact that this is a noon start which takes a lot of the crown out of the game. The best player on the field is on the Marshall side and many have probably not heard of quarterback Rakeem Cato. He led the FBS in passing yards last season at 350.1 ypg, is averaging 283 yards this year and has a complementary running attack. The Virginia Tech offense remains a mystery as it has been as pedestrian as can be. In its final six games last year against FBS opponents, Clemson, Miami, Florida St., Boston College, Virginia and Rutgers, and the first two this season, the offense produced two or fewer touchdowns. Marshall has a stout defense this season and while the opposition has had something to do with that, the right pieces are in place. Chuck Heater is Marshall's first-year defensive coordinator and he was part of national championship staffs at Notre Dame and Florida so he knows what he is doing. The Marshall turnover turnaround will be big as well and it helps knowing the Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a turnover margin of -4 or worse. Meanwhile the Hokies are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (329) Marshall Thundering Herd

Last season, Louisiana Tech had one of the most prolific offenses in the nation even though it slightly fell off near the end of the season. The Bulldogs were ranked first in the country in both total offense and scoring offense and while they were not expected to be close to that this year, the fall has been huge through the first three games of the season. Louisiana Tech is currently ranked 94th in total offense with 349.7 ypg and 103rd in scoring offense with just 18.7 ppg. The Bulldogs returned only three starters from last year's offense plus got a new head coach in Skip Holtz so it was going to take time for the offense to come together. Now in the fourth game of the season, I see that happening. We are also going in at the right time. Louisiana Tech has gone under the total in each of those first three games and those closing totals were 62, 62.5 and 59. Now we are getting a number that is as low as 50 in some spots so you can see the extreme adjustment that the linesmakers had to make here. Now is the time to go the other way. Kansas is in a very similar situation even though its offense stunk it up last year, finishing 93rd overall and 15th in scoring. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Jayhawks were expected to improve on the offensive side of the ball but we have yet to see much happen. Kansas is ranked 106th in total offense and 91st in scoring offense through it first two games. It's first game of the season against South Dakota did go over the total but it was a total that closed at 44.5 and it went over by just a single point. The Jayhawks game last week at Rice was under all the way as only 37 total points were scored which easily stayed below the closing number of 60. As it the case with Louisiana Tech, the total has come down drastically from the last game as we are seeing a 10-point difference which is huge. This is another case where we are able to buy a great number following the first overadjustment. The Louisiana Tech offense took the biggest hit in the offseason with eight starters lost, but the defense wasn't far behind with seven starters lost. The Bulldogs are ranked 87th in total defense and 71st in scoring defense and while these numbers are better than last season rankings of 120th and 116th respectively, this is still a struggling unit. On the other side, even though Kansas slowed down a strong Rice offense last week, I'm not sold it has turned it around in just one year after finishing 113th in total defense and 109th in scoring defense a season ago. I believe we are catching a great opportunity here with a solid number that is flying under the radar. 10* Over (361) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs/(362) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a huge game in the MWC that comes early in the season as Boise St. and Fresno St. are expected to win their respective division and meet in the first ever MWC Championship. Boise St. enters this game on a two-game winning streak after easily defeating Tennessee-Martin and Air Force at home following a blowout loss at Washington to open the season. While the Broncos were not tested in the last two games but were clearly tested in the opener and failed miserably, the jury is still out on them but I do not like this matchup for them at all. The road loss to the Huskies was just the third road loss for Boise St. since 2008 but it looks vulnerable for the first time since then as well. Fresno St. is off to a 2-0 start and is coming off a week that saw its game postponed in Colorado due to the flooding that took place. Despite not playing, Fresno St. just returned to the national rankings for the first time since 2008, cracking the USA Today coaches' poll. The Bulldogs opened the season with a closer than expected win against Rutgers as it took overtime to get the victory. They were able to bounce back rather easily in their next game and while Fresno St. did get outgained by Cal Poly, most of the Mustangs yardage came in garbage time after the Bulldogs opened up a 41-3 lead and took all of the starters out. To say Fresno St. has had this game circled for a while would be an understatement. The Bulldogs have lost seven straight meetings against Boise St. and none of those losses were by single digits so it has been complete domination. Things are different now and Fresno St. is actually favored for the first time since the streak begin. "Ever since I got to Fresno, if there is one team everyone wants to beat, it's Boise," said head coach Tim DeRuyter. And now they have an offense to do so. Boise St. will face one of the best quarterbacks it will see all year as Derek Carr was the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year last season and leads a group of seven returning starters on offense. He threw for over 4,100 yards last year and this season he has averaged 330.5 ypg while tossing eight touchdowns and just one interception and completing 71.2 percent of his throws. The Broncos defense struggled mightily with the up-tempo spread against Washington which is a similar offense Fresno St. runs. The Huskies had 592 yards of total offense, averaging 7.0 yppl. Quarterback Keith Price completed 23 of 31 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns, and the Huskies added another 268 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs are just as potent and could be in for a huge night. The Bulldogs defense has eight starters back from a unit that improved by close to 100 ypg last season from 2011. All of this translates into the streak finally being broken on Friday night. 10* (306) Fresno St. Bulldogs

The Eagles looked great in their opener at Washington last Monday as they stormed out of the gates on offense and never looked back to pick up a season opening win. Things were not as good last week in their home opener despite another big day on offense. Philadelphia racked up 511 total yards of offense and after spotting San Diego to a 13-3 lead, it was able to come back and take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but the defense could not hold as the Chargers kicked the game winning field goal with seven seconds remaining. After two weeks, the offense is ranked third in scoring and second overall but the issue remains with the defense as the Eagles are 28th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense. Playing two pretty potent offenses has not helped matters but I expect the stop unit to tighten up this week. The Chiefs are off to a 2-0 start under new head coach Andy Reid as he makes his return to Philadelphia. Kansas City definitely got a scheduling break as it was able to open the season against lowly Jacksonville and then played its home opener against Dallas which was coming off a huge Sunday night win against the Giants the previous week. The Chiefs were outgained slightly against the Cowboys but the defense did its job for a second straight week. The offense though remains a work in progress with new quarterback Alex Smith. He has been very efficient with a 94.7 passer rating and while Kansas City is 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, it is just 26th in total offense which is a big reason I feel the Eagles will be able to improve immensely on defense this week. Kansas City is second in the NFL in rushing defense however part of that is due to it has seen the fewest rushing attempts of any team in the league. After the Eagles put up 263 yards on the ground in Washington, they came back and rushed for just 89 yards against San Diego but they did run the ball just 20 times. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging a healthy 5.1 ypc which is fifth best in the NFL and as long as it gets back to a balanced attack from not having to play catch up, the Chiefs could be in for a long night. The Chiefs have yet to commit a turnover this season which is another big reason they are off to an undefeated start. That will not last. The Eagles have not covered a home game since the season finale two years ago as they are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home and that is helping keep this line down to just a field goal. While the big story is Reid coming back to Philadelphia, it means absolutely nothing in this matchup and I expect the Eagles top come out strong and force the Chiefs to play catch up this time. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles

Taking a look at home underdogs in these matchups is the first option, especially with these nationally televised games. That being said, we quickly came off that in this particular matchup and will be backing the road team even though it will be a very public play. The line has come down slightly in most spots after some early Wolfpack money but that puts us in a better situation to bet this one now with the spread under the key number of 14. This one comes down to talent and there is no comparison between the two teams. Clemson opened the season with a huge win against Georgia and then followed that up with an easy victory over South Carolina St. from the FCS. After going 11-2 last season, this is the best Clemson team in head coach Dabo Sweeney's six years at the helm. The offense can score at will and the pace alone will be troublesome for the Wolfpack even though the defense faces a similar no huddle scheme is practice against the scout team. Speed cannot be portrayed in practice however and the Wolfpack, with just five starters back from a defense that was bad to begin with, will have a difficult time slowing the Tigers down. Clemson ran 76 plays against Georgia and ran 95 plays against South Carolina St. which doesn't bode well for the Wolfpack after Clemson ran 102 plays in last year's 62-48 win while racking up 754 yards of offense. NC State is now also running a new faster paced offense under new head coach Dave Doeren but it has not exactly been lighting it up. The Wolfpack scored 40 points against a rebuilding Louisiana Tech team while putting up just 23 points in its last game against Richmond of the FCS. Quarterback Pete Thomas was pressed into first-string duty after Brandon Mitchell went out with a broken foot and while Thomas has experience when he was at Colorado St., it was not very solid. The Tigers defense is an improved unit and will be ready here. I can guarantee that Clemson will not come in and take NC State lightly based on two factors. First off, the Tigers lost here two years ago as road favorites when they were 9-1 and ranked seventh in the nation. Second, they saw what happened to Florida St. last year as the Seminoles came in ranked third in the country with a 5-0 record and left Raleigh with a 17-16 loss. Clemson knows it cannot look past the Wolfpack. Clemson has covered five straight games on the road going back to last season and is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. NC State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. Expect a blowout on Thursday night. 10* (303) Clemson Tigers

The Steelers are coming off a miserable game as they lost at home against Tennessee 16-9. it looked as though things would be going their way after the Titans were called for a safety on the opening kickoff however Pittsburgh would go scoreless on offense for the entire game until it scored a touchdown with 1:23 remaining. It was certainly a performance that doesn't bring a lot of confidence into this game but the good thing is that there is no where to go but up. The loss of center Maurkice Pouncey is no doubt a huge one and that puts more pressure on the offensive line but I expect the unit to step up in his absence. This is a great example of overreacting to the first week of play as the Steelers looked bad to the public therefore they are not going to be a popular pick tonight which is just the way I like it. While the Steelers were losing at home, the Bengals looked as though they were going to win in Chicago as they took a 21-10 lead with midway through the third quarter but then both units shut down. After taking that 11-point lead, the Bengals' final three drives all resulted in three-and-outs while the defense allowed drives 81 and 80 yards with both of those being turned into touchdowns. It was a tough way to lose and while the obvious thinking here is that Cincinnati bounces back, I'm not so certain of that. It will be a great home environment for sure but I do not think the Bengals should be laying this high of a number. In Marvin Lewis' 11 seasons as head coach, the Bengals have been favored just twice against Pittsburgh and in both games, the Steelers won outright. While the Steelers offense took a lot of the blame in the loss last week, the defense did not get a lot of credit. They allowed just one play of longer than 15 yards, and they shut down the Titans' running game, allowing only 112 yards on 42 carries (2.7 ypc). The Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a loss by three points or less. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a loss and after scoring 15 points or fewer, it is 9-3 ATS in its next game. This is a huge game for both sides as neither team can afford a 0-2 start as getting to the playoffs with that record is a stretch, even this early in the season. The Steelers have never started a season 0-2 during Mike Tomlin's tenure as head coach, and they don't want to start now. The thing here is that we are getting an inflated number here in a divisional matchup that easily could come down to the last possession. 10* (223) Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver heads to New York for the Manning Bowl and if you can get past the hype for this one, we have a very good situation on our hands. I've stated it before as teams are not as good as they looked in their previous game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their previous game. That is the case in this matchup. Taking nothing away from what Peyton Manning and the Broncos did against Baltimore last Thursday night but some are already crowning them Super Bowl Champions. That was a big game for Denver as it was out for revenge and it took care of that. Now the Broncos hit the road where they were 6-2 last season but four of those wins came against teams that didn't even sniff the postseason. The Giants meanwhile are coming off what head coach Tom Coughlin called "one of the worst games I have ever witnessed". And he is right, New York gave the ball up six times, three fumbles and three interceptions, with two of those turnovers returned for touchdowns. The Giants still outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards so take some for those turnovers away and New York likely wins the game which makes the game this week a completely different situation and would likely come with a different line. The loss however has provided us with not only a better line but with the public lining up on the visitor, this line could go up even more by kickoff with public money pouring in late. We have seen an early reverse line move here as the majority of the action has come in on the Broncos yet the line has come down and those are the moves we like to play. The Giants offense is going to give the Broncos some problems as Denver was never is trouble against Baltimore which had very limited options at receiver. New York had three wide receivers finish with at least 100 yards against the Cowboys, Victor Cruz with 118 yards on five catches, Hakeem Nicks with 115 yards on five catches and Rueben Randle with 101 yards on five catches. With a Denver defense that is banged up and missing others, look for the Giants to continue their offensive success. On the other side, the Giants defensive front looked much improve from a year ago, and that was with their best defensive lineman, end Jason Pierre-Paul, showing signs of rust from nearly three months of no activity following back surgery. Ping the Denver defense is impossible but slowing it down is not and that is the goal for New York. The Giants have a great situation on their side as well as we play on home teams that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (220) New York Giants

This is the classic example of fading a team that played great in the first week of the season while backing a team that looked awful. The Saints got the season off to a good start following last year's debacle as they defeated Atlanta at home in a come-from-behind victory. They spotted the Falcons a 10-0 lead before coming back to take the lead and after losing the lead early in the third quarter, came back again and held on in the final seconds. New Orleans will no doubt have its strong home field advantage back this year but playing on the road has never been easy for this team and I expect a big letdown come Sunday. The Buccaneers put up a dud in New York last Sunday as they blew a late lead no thanks to a bonehead personal foul penalty in the final second which set the Jets up for the game winning field goal. Penalties were the story as Tampa Bay committed 13 of them for 102 yards and it is tough to win any game no matter the situation when that happens. Now the Buccaneers go from a road favorite to a home underdog this week which is a very big swing over the course of just one week. Tampa Bay needs to apply pressure to Drew Brees in order to slow him down and while that was unheard of last year in the two losses, things could be different here. The pass rush was the Buccaneers weakness last season but they showed Sunday they are turning that into a strength. Tampa's blitzing linebackers hit Jets quarterback Geno Smith all day, sacking him five times and forcing a fumble. The New Orleans defense allowed just 17 points against the Falcons but did allow 367 total yards. The new look Saints defense will be the wild card in the early part of the season and it will be up to Tampa Bay to balance things out. Josh Freeman did not look very good last week but a return home should help. He posted a 72.3 passer rating on the road last year but that jumped to 91.5 in eight home games. Additionally, running back Doug Martin, who was a non-factor last week, needs a breakout game to keep the defense honest. The Saints are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games against winless opponents from Game Two on while Tampa Bay is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Buccaneers racked up 513 total yards in the home loss to the Saints last year and it will not be a surprise if that offense busts out again. 10* (214) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I like going against teams that are coming off big wins on national television the previous week as not only does it provide the possibility for a letdown but it also gets the public wanting to go right back on them. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday night as they defeated New York by five points in what was one of the uglier games of opening weekend. Dallas benefitted from six Giants turnovers, two of which were returned for scores so it was fortunate in that regard. The Cowboys were outgained by 147 total yards so this is the prime example of a deceiving final score. We will surely take the win last week but we are in an even better position this week by fading the "false winner" from winner from last week. Kansas City is coming off an easy win over the Jaguars last Sunday as the defense did not allow a point as the only points given up came from a blocked punt for a safety. Jacksonville is clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL so a lot of people will take that Chiefs win and say there was nothing special about it. While it was definitely a game they should have won, they won it resoundingly which is a big part of it. Had Kansas City just snuck by, we would not be as high on them this week but because of the lopsided win, we feel more confident and even more so heading back to Kansas City for their home opener. The Chiefs have a pretty solid edge in coaching here as well. Andy Reid has a very good understanding of the Cowboys after spending many years in Philadelphia and playing them twice a year. Including the playoffs, Reid went 17-12 against the Cowboys during his 14 seasons coaching the Eagles. WE saw some early reverse line movement as the big percentage of bets were on the Cowboys yet the line moved the other way. Once the public gets involved, we should see this number get back down below three every where so I would suggest holding off as I see this line going one way only and that is down. The Chiefs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play on favorites in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season with three or more straight ATS losses. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Dallas has not been very good in this situation as it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a win while going 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (210) Kansas City Chiefs

I played against North Texas last week and we came away with a win on Ohio as the bobcats bounced back following a loss. I am expecting a similar outcome with the Mean Green on Saturday as they look to rebound and get back over .500. Playing on the road has been a struggle for North Texas over the last few years as it has only eight victories on the highway since 2006 and this is a much better team at home. The Mean Green easily took care of Idaho in their first home game of the season and while the Vandals are a very bad team, it was a complete domination after falling behind 6-0. Ball St. is off to a 2-0 start but both of those games were at home making this its first trip on the road in 2013. the Cardinals defeated Illinois St. by 23 points and Army by 26 points but those can certainly be considered misleading finals as Ball St. won the yardage battle by 64 yards and one yard respectively in those games. I feel that is a truer indication of what actually happened as looking at the scoreboard alone will not do much for you. Following a 9-4 season last year but losing 24 lettermen, there were, and still are, some questions surrounding this team so putting the Cardinals in the role of the road favorite in their first game of the season on the highway is overaggressive. The difference maker here could be the North Texas offense squaring off against a very mediocre Cardinals defense. The Mean Green have exhibited great balance offensively (83 rushing attempts and 63 passing). Senior quarterback Derek Thompson is in his fifth season (he played sparingly as a freshman and was injured early in his sophomore season) of competition, and his experience shows. He has completed 75 percent (42 of 56) of his passes for 544 yards and four scores through two games. The big plays have paved the way as already this season, the Mean Green have generated nine plays of 20 yards or more. I am a big fan of Ball St. quarterback Keith Wenning as he is off to another fine start this season. He was named the MAC West Player of the Week after a solid performance against Army but going back he has had struggles on the road as last year, seven of his 10 interceptions came on the highway. North Texas gets a bad rap because of its defense but with eight starters back from last year, the unit will be fine here. This is another situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in non-conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (162) North Texas Mean Green

USC got embarrassed at home last week against Washington St. as the offense was held in check and managed a mere seven points. It was just the third time since 2003 that the Trojans were held to single digits on offense during the regular season and taking a look around shows that people are off this team already. That is perfect as I see it since the value is now on the USC side. It is proven by the fact this line was -21.5 when it was released as a game of the year line back in July. Sure, the Trojans are a public team but that public is starting to shy away which allows us a great bounceback opportunity. Boston College meanwhile is off to a 2-0 start following a win last Friday over Wake Forest on national television. Now the Eagles have to travel across the country to face a very hungry team in search of a payback victory. They defeated Villanova in their first game and while both were double-digit wins, the Eagles won the yardage battle by just 58 and 68 total yards in the first two games. That is far from dominating and now hitting the road for the first time, I think they are overvalued. One bad play made the difference against the Cougars. USC had the ball at the Cougars' 39-yard line with a chance to extend the 7-0 lead just before halftime, but quarterback Cody Kessler threw an interception to cornerback Damante Horton who returned it 70 yards untouched to tie the game. Trojans head coach Lane Kiffin picked Kessler on Monday to make his third start of the season against Boston College. Kiffin also said Kessler will no longer split practice work and playing time with Max Wittek, who has played in the second half of the Trojans first two games. While the offense has been a work in progress, the defense is the strength of the Trojans as they are ranked 11th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense. I expect that to continue against a Boston College offense ranked 83rd in the nation. USC has a solid situation on its side as we play against teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses going up against an opponent that was a bowl team from last season who lost their last three games. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The Trojans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while Boston College has gone 0-6 ATS in it last six road games. 10* (148) USC Trojans

After blowing out Indiana St. in its opener, Indiana had a lot of momentum going into its second game against Navy but the Hoosiers came in with no energy and were behind 17-0 midway through the second quarter. The six-point final deficit would be as close as they would get in what turned out to be a horrific home loss. Now it will be up to Indiana to regroup and bounce back to avoid back-to-back losses before facing an extremely tough four-game stretch on the schedule. Indiana was, and still is, on the radar for me as a team that could have a very good season and there is experience all over the place following their 4-8 season from a year ago. The Hoosiers lost four of those games by four points or fewer and that tends to come around the following season. I played against Bowling Green last week and it was a bad call on my part as the Falcons went into Kent St. and hammered the Golden Flashes. They outgained them by 274 total yards but they held just a two-point lead at the break before scoring 17 unanswered points in the second half. I am still not completely sold on Bowling Green as a win over Tulsa to open the season looked impressive at first until the Golden Hurricane needed a field goal last week with no time left to defeat Colorado St. at home. Kent St. meanwhile was without running back Dri Archer (bad info received on my part) last week and apparently the narrow seven-point win over Liberty was not an aberration after all. Now comes a true test for the Falcons. While Indiana is far from the elite in the Big Ten, it is still a Big Ten with Big Ten athletes. The Indiana defense got shredded by Navy last week on the ground as it allowed 444 yards rushing but the Hoosiers will not be seeing anymore of that triple option attack. Put them against an average offense and a similar one that they go against in practice and they will be fine which is what I expect here. Indiana doesn't plan to spend much time figuring out where it can alter scheme or personnel. Instead, head coach Kevin Wilson wants players to maintain confidence, wipe away memories of the Navy debacle, improve fundamentals and most important, try to create some turnovers. On the flip side, the offense has carried the weight for Indiana thus far and while it will be facing one of the top defenses in the MAC, the Falcons defense has had its share of issues against teams from BCS conferences. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in non-conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (124) Indiana Hoosiers

Not many people will be giving the over a chance based on what we saw these teams do last week. The Jets offense sputtered as expected with rookie Geno Smith behind center but they were able to do just enough, along with some help from a bonehead Tampa Bay penalty, to pull out the victory. New York managed only 304 yards of offense while putting up just 18 points but I see better things taking place this week. Smith was able to not only make plays with his strong arm, but scrambled out of trouble multiple times Sunday. He threw for 256 yards and a touchdown which are certainly not earth shattering numbers but so a guy that only took 69 snaps in the preseason, it is a very solid line. The Jets are facing a Patriots defense that was pretty average a year ago and there are some questions about whether or not they will stay at that level or even fall down some. Against Buffalo, they allowed just 286 total yards and while that was also against a fellow rookie starting quarterback, facing Smith in his second game should prove to be more difficult than facing E.J. Manual in his first game. The Jets defense was very solid as they held Tampa Bay to 250 total yards including just 65 yards rushing on 25 carries (2.6 ypc). The defense was a question coming into the season and despite a solid Week One, I think it is still a question. The Jets run defense is a lot better than the Bills version, and the Patriots won't have Shane Vereen to fall back on. If neither Brandon Bolden nor LeGarrette Blount can get it done, then they will be forced to throw the ball a lot and that only helps us here. The New England passing offense is a work in progress as all five of quarterback Tom Brady's top receivers from 2012 were absent in Buffalo. They accounted for 338 of his 401 completions last season, which is 84.3 percent but you cannot count him out. New England still managed 431 total yards and heading home, it will be more than fine. Coming off two unders last week, I really think we are catching a ton of value. This is the lowest total in this series since 2010 when the Patriots and Jets began their over run of seven straight games, a streak that is still in progress. Based on the line and spread, the projection would be New England 28 New York 16 and I believe that the Jets can get more than that as settling for three field goals against Tampa Bay hurt them. The over is 20-8-1 in the Jets last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the over is 20-8 in the Patriots last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) New York Jets/(102)/New England Patriots

TCU and Texas Tech have started the season by each going 2-0 to the over so that alone is going to plant the public behind the over again this week. Because of that, this total will likely continue to climb through gametime so when taking the under in these nationally televised weeknight games, it is best to hold off as late as you can because this number will not be coming down. The Horned Frogs and Red Raiders were involved in high scoring games this past weekend but it is very important to note that both went over the total in their games by just a half-point which is another reason for additional value. These teams met last year for the first time since 2006 and it was a very entertaining game that saw 109 points scored but 37 of those were scored in overtime so the final was a bit misleading. The total closed at 57 in last year's game so you can see how the number this year has been affected by that meeting as well as the recent results from this season. Texas Tech is ranked eighth in the nation in total offense and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 596 ypg and 51 ppg respectively, but the Red Raiders haven't exactly been challenged yet. They put up 731 total yards against Stephen F. Austin in their 61-13 win this past Saturday but comes a true test. They did pass that test last season against the Horned Frogs by scoring 56 points but they were held to 389 total yards as they were able to take advantage of three TCU turnovers. On the other side, the Horned Frogs are ranked 99th in total offense and things could get worse before they get better. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, the win over Southeastern Louisiana came with a price. Quarterback Casey Pachall will miss the next eight weeks after breaking his left arm. Trevone Boykin is no slouch as he was the starting quarterback last season after Pachall left the team but he is more of a mobile threat than a pure passer so more running on the offense could speed up the game and keep the clock moving. TCU did not have a great game defensively in its opener against LSU but this is a unit that brought back nine starters from last year's 16th ranked total defense. While Texas Tech is not known for defense, it finished 38th in total defense last year and also brought back nine starters. Through two games this year, the Red Raiders are just 82nd in total defense but 40th in scoring defense as the 'bend don't break' style has paid off. I see a lower than expected scoring game on Thursday and we will take advantage of the generous number that we have been offered. 10* Under (103) TCU Horned Frogs/(204) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Last night, we got our first glimpse of what the NFC East could be like this season and it wasn't pretty as Dallas and New York put forth a very ugly effort. Tonight, the other two teams square off as the new look Eagles head to Washington to take on the projected divisional championship by the majority. The big storyline for Washington is quarterback Robert Griffin III who is back in the starting lineup after tearing his ACL just over eight months ago. He says he is ready and that he would not be out there otherwise and that I believe. But while his knee may be back to full health, he will be showing some rust as he did not take a snap during the preseason which puts him in a tough spot here. On the other side, the Eagles brought in Chip Kelly from Oregon and with him comes a brand new system which is obviously tricky to pick up right away. But I still give that edge to Philadelphia as while it may take time to learn, it is impossible for a defense to prepare for something it has never seen before. The Redskins can look at all the preseason film they want. But Kelly, like most NFL coaches, didn't give much away in his game-planning for those contests. In six career starts against Washington, Michael Vick is 3-1 with 805 passing yards, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also ran for two touchdowns, while rushing for over 100 yards. The big game could come from LeSean McCoy however. He looked unstoppable in the preseason in Kelly's new offense, and he will be utilized much more than he was in Andy Reid's pass happy west coast offense. The Eagles lost both meetings a year ago and after a disastrous 4-12 season, they will be out to open the Kelly era with a victory and while motivation will not be lacking on the other side, Philadelphia has more answers to the questions coming into this one. Additionally, the Redskins defense puts Philadelphia into a solid situation where we play against favorites in a divisional matchup that allowed 5.4 yppl or more last season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Going back to last season, the Redskins have been the much better team against the spread and because of their 4-0 preseason, I feel the value is on the side of the Eagles as that hook on top of the field goal is huge in my opinion. 10* (479) Philadelphia Eagles

Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers. Setting the lines is tough as the main parameters are based on last season's performances and this year's expectations and this line is clearly taking those into account. The Colts had one of the best turnaround seasons ever as they went from going 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012 and earning a playoff berth. Indianapolis is now back on the map and expectations are high once again but as good as the Colts were last season, they were never favored even close to what they are favored by in Week One against the Raiders. I'm not saying last year was a fluke but of the 11 wins Indianapolis had, six of those came by four points or fewer while another came in overtime by six points. Adding to this, the Colts became the first team in NFL history to win 11 or more games during the regular season while being outscored by their opponents. The Colts covered 11 games last season but six of those were as underdogs and the five they covered as favorites, they were a 4.5-point chalk or less each time. The Raiders are not expected to be a very good team this season as they have one of the lowest regular season win totals which is 5.5. They went 4-12 last season which after two straight 8-8 seasons so they are definitely going the wrong way but this is the NFL and strange things can happen, case in point the Colts last season. Oakland was not very good on the road, going 1-7 but again all of this is playing into this line which is why it is as high as it is. Looking at matchups, stopping the Colts offense and quarterback Andrew Luck is not an easy task but if ever there is a matchup that suits the Raiders, this is it. Their secondary is looking very good as Charles Woodson, D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, and Mike Jenkins form a great unit. The Colts are thin in the backfield so the Raiders should see a lot of throws from Luck and let's not forget, he had 18 interceptions a year ago. On the other side, Terrelle Pryor will get the start and while he has proven nothing, the read-option he will utilize could cause some problems for the Colts. I am a contrarian by nature, especially in the NFL, and this is the ultimate in contrarian as the public is all over the Colts which is just the way I prefer it the first week of the season. 10* (471) Oakland Raiders

There are four home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Seattle was outstanding last year by going 11-5 in the regular season and then splitting in the playoffs. The Seahawks closed by winning five straight to end the regular season and then taking out Washington in the first round of the playoffs after falling behind early before losing by two at Atlanta in the Divisional Round. They are now considered a Super Bowl contender by many and their +350 to win the NFC certainly proves that. Based on all of this, there is no way they could not be a road favorite to open the season and it has a step further as they are favored by more than a field goal. Seattle put together its second straight undefeated preseason but lest we forget that after going 4-0 last season, it opened the regular season at Arizona and lost outright as a point favorite. Now the Seahawks have to travel to the east coast for an early game and while rumor has it, they are preparing the right way for it, it is not an easy task. After closing 2011 with wins in four of their final six games, expectations were high for the Panthers last year, especially after the great rookie season Cam Newton had at quarterback. Unfortunately, Carolina would start the season 2-8 and the season was lost. The Panthers did go 5-1 over their last six games including winning their last four but this time around, expectations are not nearly as high and that helps us with public perception which ultimately helps us with the line. One huge edge for the Panthers here is the banged up Seattle defense as Bruce Irvin starts his suspension, Chris Clemons won't play while still recovering from his knee injury, Cliff Avril is nursing a hamstring, and Seattle's two starting defensive tackles are battling groin injuries. As for the Carolina defense, it improved from 2011 to 2012 and should be better this year thanks to rookies Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short who will contribute right away. I expect Newton to have a big season as he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder amid the criticism he has taken but he played as good as any quarterback in the second half of last season. Don't be surprised to see the outright win here. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

We played against Minnesota last Thursday and while the final score showed a blowout win by the Gophers, it never should have been that way. Minnesota was outgained by 99 total yards but it was fortunate to score three touchdowns by other than the offense as it returned the second half kickoff for a touchdown, returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown and returned an interception for a touchdown, all in a span of just over a quarter. The 28-point win is obviously misleading as both the offense and defense was inconsistent and now the Gophers make a trip across country and are being asked to lay over two scores. They have won only nine road games since 2007 and have been a road favorite just a few times, most recently last season when they were favored by 8.5 points at UNLV and escaped with a win in three overtimes. This is another prime example of the markets taking a result too much into consideration when not the whole picture was looked at. New Mexico St. is coming off an ugly loss at Texas as it went down by 49 points while getting outgained by 369 total yards. The Aggies trailed by just a 14-7 score at halftime however so while the second half was a disaster, they showed they could compete with a team like Texas and Minnesota is no Texas. The Aggies offense proved to be light years ahead of where it was in 2012 with a no-huddle attack that has been implemented, one that saw the Aggies observe Texas' defense, make the appropriate play call at the line of scrimmage and then attack from there. Minnesota does have a strong defense but after allowing 419 total yards to UNLV, I don't see it stopping New Mexico St. enough to try and cover this massive number. On the other side, the Gophers are going to be without starting running back Donnell Kirkwood as he has a sprained right ankle and is not expected to play Saturday. New Mexico St. is an Independent this year which means the schedule is pretty tough but not brutal and this is one of those swing games that it needs to win. Even if it doesn't happen, we have a big number to lean back on. 10* (370) New Mexico St. Aggies

We were on the complete wrong side with Ohio on Sunday as it got smashed at Louisville 49-7. While I do not think the Bobcats are as bad as they played against the Cardinals, I definitely underestimated Louisville in that game and while I still feel the Cardinals are overrated, the amount has certainly decreased. Now Ohio heads back home and takes a big step down in class as it welcomes North Texas. The Bobcats are coming off their fourth consecutive winning season a year ago and despite just 12 starters back, those returning starters are key players and big time playmakers on offense for that matter. The offense managed only 273 total yards against Louisville but facing a Mean Green defense will get them back on track. North Texas allowed only six points to Idaho in its opener but did give up 369 total yards as it was fortunate than the Vandals put the ball on the ground four times, losing three of those fumbles. Because of the blowout loss suffered in their opener, the value is clearly on the side of the Bobcats which are 15-3 over their last three years at home. North Texas won by 34 points while outgaining Idaho by 201 total yards and while that win looks impressive, the Vandals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the FBS this season so we cannot take a lot away from that victory. The Mean Green are now 8-4 at home since the start of the 2010 season but they have gone 2-11 on the road over that stretch and going back further, they are 8-38 over their last 46 road games going back to 2006. To their credit, this is expected to be one of the better North Texas teams we have seen in a few years but until it can get better play on the road, they will be a fade at these short prices. The Mean Green were a single digit road underdog only once last season and they lost that game by 17 points at Marshall. Additionally, playing well in back-to-back games has been few and far between at north Texas is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games following a win. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. I expect a huge effort from Ohio as it takes its frustrations out Saturday night. 10* (318) Ohio Bobcats

Bowling Green put together a very surprising run a season ago as after opening 1-3, it went on to win seven of its last eight regular season games before losing to San Jose St. in the Military Bowl. That success coupled with 19 returning starters has given the Falcons some pretty lofty expectations as they have been tabbed by many to with the MAC East ahead of Ohio. With expectations comes public backing which in turn affects the lines that are posted and I feel that is the case here. It doesn't hurt matters that Bowling Green destroyed Tulsa in its season opener at home 34-7 while outgaining the Golden Hurricane by 123 total yards. The Falcons were a favorite by a field goal in that one and despite a switch to the road, they are actually now favored by more than a touchdown. Kent St. is coming off a win of its own as it defeated Liberty in its season opener. It was far from a dominating performance however as it won by just a touchdown over its FCS opponent but a win is a win and if for nothing else, the close call helps us out with the line this week. Still, the Golden Flashes outgained Liberty by 139 total yards including 135 yards on the ground despite an injury to running back Dri Archer who was hurt after just three carries and did not return. Archer is considered a sleeper Heisman candidate and the good news is that the injury suffered was minor as it was a twisted ankle so he will be ready to go. Kent St. has two very solid situations on its side as well. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1992. Over the last five seasons, there two scenarios have combined to go an outstanding 24-2 ATS. Additionally, the Golden Flashes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win while Bowling Green is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (360) Kent St. Golden Flashes

This is what we call an overreaction line after the first week. Central Florida rolled over Akron by 31 points at home as a 24-point favorite and now it hits the road favored by more points this week. The Zips are not a good team as they have won only three games during the last three seasons and came into the game against the Knights riding a 26-game road losing streak which was extended to 27 games. Central Florida did what it had to do and it could very well do the same here however laying this number on the road is ludicrous especially when it is 9-13 ATS as a road chalk of any kind under George O'Leary and has a game at Penn St. on deck so the lookahead possibility is there. Additionally, Central Florida has gone 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit road favorite We played and won against Florida International last week as it was hammered 43-10 while getting outgained by 405 total yards. Rarely will you see a team play horrid game consecutively (and vice versa for that matter) and this number is definitely an overreaction to that loss against the Terrapins. That was more of a play on Maryland more than anything else and I am banking on a much better performance from the Golden Panthers as they head home for this one. Adding even more fire to the pot is the fact that they closed last season by dropping their final five games at home. The Knights defeated Florida International at home last season by 13 points as a 17-point favorite and instead of the line going down based on the venue change, it has gone up by over a touchdown and that is a huge swing for a team that is not considered to be an overly dominating team to begin with. The Knights are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a home win. Meanwhile, Florida International is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a double-digit underdog against an opponent that is coming off a double-digit win. 10* (484) Florida International Golden Panthers

Prior to last season when the Giants lost against Dallas on Thursday night to open the season, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers in each of the previous three years starting with Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. It needs to be noted that all three of those teams were favored and at home and the Ravens did not get the luxury of getting a home game to open the season because of a conflict with the Orioles. Baltimore was already set to host the Chicago White Sox next door at 7:05 and because of a shared parking lot, both could play the same night and a compromise could not be made. I feel the Ravens will be playing with a chip on their shoulder because of this. Since the offseason started, the Ravens, in particular linebacker Terrell Suggs, have talked about the lack of respect given the team, and head coach John Harbaugh has echoed those sentiments throughout training camp. The defending Super Bowl Champions will be out to prove the doubters wrong. Denver will no doubt be amped up for this game as this is the matchup that saw their season come to an end last year. The Broncos were 7-1 at home during the regular season with most of those being blowouts so they are obviously favored for a reason. I think the line is way too much even though it is less than the 9.5-point spread from that playoff game. Baltimore did lose a lot from last year especially on the defensive side, namely Ray Lewis and Ed Reed but I think the defense will be improved as they are bigger, faster, younger and stronger on defense and last season they weren't that great to begin with. On the other side, a sloppy preseason on offense should have no one worried as Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell says the Ravens' offense could display some different characteristics now that the games actually count. As far as the Broncos go, they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl but they have some questions as well. Defensively, they are without Von Miller and Champ Bailey isn't close to 100 percent while the loss of outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Baltimore is huge. Offensively, Peyton Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks around but his offensive line and running game are average at best and he will be under pressure all night. Obviously, Denver will be out for revenge but winning and covering are two different matters. 10* (451) Baltimore Ravens

Despite a 12-2 season a year ago, it was considered a disappointing campaign for Florida St. The Seminoles came in ranked seventh in the preseason polls and they were considered a strong contender to play for the BCS Championship. Things started well with five straight double-digit wins but then an uncalled for loss at NC State by a point ended those championship hopes. They would go on to lose to sixth ranked Florida at home later in the season before winning the final two games. This season, expectations are lower as Florida St. is not ranked in the preseason top ten and that could be a better thing as flying under the radar early could be a benefit, especially at the betting window. I am not one to bet a lot of road favorites but I feel this line is way off and possibly for the wrong reason. The Seminoles lost a ton of talent as they will have to replace 11 players that were drafted including quarterback E.J. Manuel. Instead of rebuilding though, this team is reloading. While head coach Jimbo Fisher's early classes had to play right away, the staff has carefully selected immediate-impact contributors while allowing a number of talented recruits to develop further. Replacing Manuel is Jameis Winston who is a redshirt freshman and while his first start is on the road, it is no issue as this kid is the real deal. He will have four starters back on the offensive line to protect him and give him lanes and he has numerous playmakers at his disposal. On defense, the Seminoles will have the ability to rotate as many as 10 tackles and ends so the loss of six starters from the front seven is not nearly as bad is it would be for most teams. I do not see Pittsburgh doing much on offense against this athletic defense. The Panthers starting quarterback is Tom Savage who has not played since 2010 after transferring from Rutgers to Arizona and then Arizona to here. Likely starting running back Rushel Shell transferred while five of the top seven receivers from last year are gone. The defense will be asked to carry the load until the offense can find its chemistry and while this unit was outstanding last year, that was against a weak schedule. That changes now in the move to the ACC and the Panthers do not have the speed to slow down Florida St. as the Seminoles dominate both sides of the ball. 10* (219) Florida St. Seminoles

This game sets up very similar to a play that was made on Saturday as we are going against early season hype which has caused an inflated line. Louisville is coming in as a sleeper pick to make it to the BCS Championship following an 11-2 season last year that including a 33-23 win over Florida in the Sugar Bowl. There is plenty of talent on this team and the Cardinals return 16 starters overall but I am far from sold on this team making a huge run. Even if they do run the table and go undefeated, it will be difficult to include them in the championship game as their schedule is a cakewalk. Entering the season, Louisville's schedule is ranked 98th out of 126 FBS teams and it can be argued that the toughest game on the slate does not come until the final game of the season at Cincinnati. Because of the preseason hype, the Cardinals are favored by close to three touchdowns in most shops and the recommendation is to wait this one out until we get closer to gametime as I expect it to hit 21 points everywhere with the possibility of even going over that in some places. Ohio is no slouch and with the disciplined way this team plays, walking out of Louisville with an outright win is far from out of the question. The Bobcats are going off a 9-4 season and it certainly could have been a lot better. Ohio opened up 7-0 but then injuries started piling up after more than a dozen players suffered season-ending injuries in 2012. The team is healthy once again as head coach Frank Solich lightened the load during camp to try and keep his team fresh and injury free and the plan worked. Offensively, this team is loaded as it returns nearly all skill position players, with eight returning starters players overall. This includes quarterback Tyler Tettlton, running back Beau Blankenship and receiver Donte Foster. Defensively, the Bobcats lost a lot up front but they return leading tackler Keith Moore at linebacker and they have a healthy group of defensive backs that a year ago were devastated by injuries. Slowing down the Cardinals offense will not be easy but the Bobcats offense brings enough to the table to keep up. If Ohio can create some turnovers on defense and protect the ball on offense, it could be the Bobcats that that move into position to make that magical run to the championship instead of Louisville. 10* (215) Ohio Bobcats

We have not seen a ton of movement in this total since it opened but that should change by gametime so it may be best to jump on this one early as I expect it to go no where but up. Northwestern comes in with one of its best teams on paper in a long time and most of that comes from the offense as the Wildcats have eight starters back from last years 10-3 team. They averaged 31.7 ppg and they should get going right away against a Golden Bears defense that was ravaged at the end of the season last year, allowing 59 and 62 points in their final two games. Changes had to be made and they were. Along with head coach Jeff Tedford being shown the door, both coordinators are new. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh, who was most recently the linebackers coach at Wisconsin, will be installing a 4-3 formation to replace the 3-4 of years past. That will take time to develop and the Wildcats, led by the quarterback duo of Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian along with numerous playmakers including the top three returning rushers and six of the top seven returning receivers, will exploit it. Sonny Dykes takes over a California offense that averaged just 23.0 ppg and his system should provide a boost to the unit right away. In his third and final season with Louisiana Tech, Dykes oversaw the top ranked offense in the country as the Bulldogs racked up 577.9 ypg. It will not be that potent right away but the Golden Bears players are buying into it which makes a world of difference. Additionally, this is a very athletic team on offense and that is something that Northwestern tends to struggle against on that side of the ball. California is starting a true freshman at quarterback in Jared Goff, which is always a concern, but we are not asking for an astronomical amount of points here although going into the 30's would not be a surprise at all. Look for this one to fly over the total with ease. 10* Over (213) Northwestern Wildcats/(214) California Golden Bears

Saturday night, Washington will be playing at Husky Stadium for the first time since 2011 after it was forced to play at CenturyLink Field because of renovations. This will be one crazy atmosphere and one that the home team will take full advantage of. This is a rematch from the Las Vegas Bowl last year in which Boise St. won by two points so the Huskies will be out for some early season payback. The Huskies have gone 7-6 in each of the last three seasons and this is the best team on paper over that stretch as they have the experience and talent to make a run in the Pac 12. Quarterback Keith Price has a regression from the previous season but we should see him rebound this year as he has numerous weapons around him. Running back Bishop Sankey and wide receiver Kasen Williams form as dynamic duo as there is in the conference. The problem last season was a banged up offensive line so keeping that unit healthy will be key. Since this is the first game, we are catching them at their healthiest. The defense was extremely solid last year and it was a very young defense on top of that so a year older will have them even better. Year in and year out, Boise St. head coach Chris Peterson brings in great teams but this could be one of his biggest challenges yet. Six starters need to be replaced on each side, and some big holes have to be filled on the defensive front six and the offensive line, two hugely important areas that go a long way in success or lack thereof. The Broncos know all about being tested early in the season and they would like to learn from their loss against Michigan St. last year as they were outgained 461-206 but it won't be that easy in this environment. You hate to say 'must win' game this early in the season but this one qualifies for the Huskies as they need some early season momentum going their way. "Nah, we're not over it," head coach Steve Sarkisian said of the way 2012 ended. "We're not over it. We're antsy. We're pissed. We're not over it, and we won't be until we get to go hit somebody else." This game also falls into the great situation of playing an unranked home favorite against a ranked road underdog. 10* (210) Washington Huskies

After opening under 35 points, this line has crept over the five-touchdown barrier and we will strike. Early season lines are determined on predictions of how teams will do as there is no history of games that can be looked at. That gives us some big advantages when looking at these games and going against teams that are getting overhyped. Ohio St. is one of those. This isn't to say the Buckeyes are not a good team because they are outstanding but this line inflated based on the name and the hype. Ohio St. went 12-0 last season but was ineligible for the postseason and many are calling for another undefeated season. The offense will be explosive once again behind quarterback Braxton Miller who also led the team in rushing. He will be asked to do it again here as running backs Carlos Hyde and Rod Smith will both miss this one. On the other side, the Buckeyes defense is very young and inexperience with just four returning starters. Three of those are in the secondary but Ohio St. finished 11 in the Big Ten in passing defense so this may not be a good thing. Even worse, the best returning corner, Bradley Roby, has been suspended for the opener. The front seven has to be rebuilt and that is a big question mark, especially early in the season. Buffalo has done much the last few years but this could be the best Bulls team that head coach Jeff Quinn has put on the field in his four years. They have gone from two wins to three wins to four wins through his first three years and they are talking about being MAC East champions and at worst, making it to their first bowl game since 2008. Buffalo brings back 16 returning starters including nine on offense and that is where it can take advantage because of the inexperienced Ohio St. stop unit. The Bulls offense needs more firepower and has to be more consistent in the passing game, but back Branden Oliver is a special runner and the line should be terrific with three starters returning and the starting five solid. The strength last season for the bulls was their defense and they will be tough once again. The Bulls came up with one of the nation

This certainly isn't the most ideal line we are getting but I don't think it will even come into play. Ole Miss exceeded expectations last year as it went 7-6 which included a bowl win over Pittsburgh. The coaching job that Hugh Freeze did was outstanding and this year, expectations are higher which is forcing the Rebels to be favored on the road. They have 19 returning starters which is by far the most in the SEC and they brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country which actually makes them a darkhorse contender. Ole Miss lost some close games last season and one of those came at home against Vanderbilt in the final minute so it will be out for some payback. The offense is loaded with quarterback Bo Wallace back under center and potential All-SEC running back Jeff Scott and wide receiver Donte Moncrief around him. Last year, the Rebels averaged 31.5 ppg which was nearly double from the 2011 season. If Ole Miss wants to take the next step, it must come on defense, where the Rebels finished 11th in the SEC stopping the pass last season. The good news is that Vanderbilt does not have the passing attack to take advantage like it did last year as quarterback Jordan Rodgers is gone. Additionally, wide receiver Chris Boyd was charged with assisting defendants accused of rape and sexual assault, was indicted and suspended indefinitely from the football team. Last season, he started all 13 games, accumulated 50 catches and averaged 59.5 ypg and he caught the winning touchdown pass for the Commodores in the win over the Rebels. Vanderbilt returns 13 starters overall and this year it will not be sneaking up on teams like it did in 2012. The offense will take a step down while the defensive line, a strength last season, needs to replace three of four starters. The Commodores have momentum from winning their final six games from last season however, that puts them into a negative situation as we play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers and finished with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Mississippi Rebels

Two weeks ago, the AFC was -3 in the Super Bowl and now the AFC that is represented by Baltimore is getting points. That line two weeks ago could have been determined by the matchup between the top seeds Denver and Atlanta but I not think the swing should be this big with the fact that Baltimore is now the AFC representative. The value is tremendous and we are backing a team getting more points that is should that is peaking at the right time.

Baltimore is certainly playing some of its best football of the season so the extra week off may have some concerned. I do not think this is a liability though and I actually think it helps the Ravens out more than anything. The Giants were in the same scenario a season ago and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. The additional week off gives Baltimore extra time to get ready for Colin Kaepernick and it will be the first team that has had two weeks to prepare for him this season.

Another bonus for the extra time off for Baltimore is to rest its defense. The Ravens defense has been on field for 1,342 plays this season and since start of 2001, no defense has logged more plays in a season The Ravens have allowed a lot of yards during the playoffs, 415.0 ypg in fact, but due to the volume of plays run against them, they're allowing just 4.86 yppl, which is the lowest number among the 12 playoff teams so the defense that gets a bad rap has stepped up huge.

Joe Flacco has become the first quarterback in NFL history to win six playoff games on the road and this season he has been exceptional. He has completed 51-93 pass attempts for 853 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 114.7. A large portion of that success can be credited to a reshuffled offensive line that has allowed just four sacks this postseason. I was pretty unimpressed with the 49ers against the Falcons and taking them out of San Francisco has made a big difference.

The utilization of the no-huddle offense has simplified the game for Flacco while producing a better rhythm and tempo. Consequently, the Ravens have blown through the playoffs behind an offense that is far more explosive and diverse than the regular-season version. Because the offensive line has been so good, the 49ers will not have much success getting to Flacco and that is huge as the San Francisco pass defense is only good when the defensive line can apply pressure.

On the other side, the 49ers will utilize a combination of zone-read running and play-action passing against a Ravens defense that struggled to contain a similar offensive attack run by Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins in Week 14. This means nothing in my opinion as the Ravens are a difference defense now. They are playing at a much higher level and it cannot be understated that Baltimore was not even close to 100 percent healthy in that game as it is now.

If this is a close game toward the end of the game, Baltimore has a huge edge in my opinion. Even though he is just a rookie, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season long and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco hit the upright on a FG attempt against the Falcons and nearly was replaced before the game. He has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens

This is a rematch of not only the Week Three meeting, won by Baltimore by a point, but also a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Patriots won by a field goal. New England was able to cover the inflated line against Houston last week but I do not see it happening again. In the first meeting this year, Baltimore was favored by 2.5 points which should make the Patriots about a 4.5-point favorite here based on a venue switch. Have these teams changed that much to inflate the line this much? I do not think so.

The Ravens got an improbable win in Denver thanks to a defensive gaffe by the Broncos that allowed a 71-yard touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining to send the game into overtime. Still, Baltimore has to be given a lot of credit to be able to go into Denver and take down the top seed that was riding an 11-game winning streak. The question is, can the Ravens get up once again and do the same? I totally expect them to as I not only expect them to keep it close, an outright win is far from out of the question.

I think Baltimore is in fine shape similar to last season despite a lot of distractions and negative situations coming into the postseason. The Ravens lost several key performers to injuries, fired their offensive coordinator following their 13th game and dropped four of their final five contests heading into the playoffs. I am nit buying any of the 'Team of Destiny' talk but I do buy the fact that when teams are down and thought to be out, they tend to step up as adversity can bring out the best in players.

Hats off to New England for taking out the Texans but they only outgained Houston by 32 totals yards but were able to take advantage of Houston mistakes and that doesn't mean turnovers. Matt Schaub did not play a very good game and the Texans finished 4-15 on third down and a team cannot win with that type of inconsistency. The victory over the Texans came with a cost, as star tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his left forearm and is out for the rest of the playoffs.

The Patriots will be out for revenge but this line totally takes away any edge, if there was any at all. They actually fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Ravens have been in this situation before and have thrived, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games while New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games. 10* (303) Baltimore Ravens

After seeing every game go under the total in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, every game in the Divisional Round went over the total and none were even close. Each game this past weekend went over by at least 12 points and the average game score was a whopping 69 ppg. What does that do for us this week? I creates some inflated totals because after those overs hit, the same will be bet this week by the majority of the betting markets so the linesmakers had to make the proper adjustments.

This number is sitting at 48 in most spots as of Monday morning and putting into perspective from the Atlanta side, it is a higher total than last week despite going up against a better defense and arguably the best stop unit in the NFL. The Falcons were able to hang 30 points on a very solid Seattle defense but most of the damage came early and once the Seahawks made their adjustments, Atlanta struggled. Expect the 49ers to have a gameplan right from the beginning that is going to make Atlanta stay in neutral.

The big concern here is the Falcons defense as they got exposed once again last week against the Seahawks. Whether it was a prevent type of defense that was played late, Atlanta could not stop Seattle down the stretch but I think that experience will help them going forward. The experience of playing a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson should help the Falcons prepare for Colin Kaepernick, who is even more dangerous running the read-option behind a huge and tough offensive line.

On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons.

The 49ers have now gone over the total in five straight games and that is another reason this one is so high as streaks like that love to be played. We play on the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 124-75 under (62.3 percent) since 1983. Also, Atlanta is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last game. 10* Under (301) San Francisco 49ers/(302) Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons got the monkey off their backs as they were finally able to win in the playoffs which was their first postseason win since 2004. It was the first playoff victory for head coach Mike Smith and for quarterback Matt Ryan as they had come in with a 0-3 playoff record prior to the miraculous win. Blowing a 27-7 lead looked as though Atlanta was in for another decimating defeat but it was able to move down field in under 30 seconds to kick the game-winning field goal.

San Francisco was arguably rooting for Seattle so it could get to play this game at home however the matchup is much better here despite the fact it has to take to the road. The 49ers are coming off a domination of the Packers as they outgained Green Bay by 227 total yards and the game was not even as close as the 14-point margin of victory showed. They held the Packers to 352 total yards and only 17 points can be blamed on the defense as a pick six and a garbage score late upped the Green Bay scoring output.

Atlanta knows it has a lot of work to be done on defense and while I do think it will be able to get over that second half debacle against the Seahawks, this unit is not very good right now. The Falcons are 24th in total yards allowed and while the point totals have been kept in check for the most part, that is largely due to turnovers which will not be easy to come by here as San Francisco turned it over on 16 times during the regular season, tied for second fewest in the NFL.

On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons.

We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 53-27 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. San Francisco is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while under head coach Jim Harbaugh, it is 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Conversely, the Falcons are 3-19 ATS in their last 22 home games coming off a home win. 10* (301) San Francisco 49ers

I bet on the Patriots in the last matchup with Houston back on December 10th and it doesn't get much easier than that one as New England rolled to a 42-14 win. The betting public has not forgotten that game and with everyone still down on the Texans, they will be looking for a similar result here. Thus, the number had to be adjusted and it has been adjusted by four points which is a huge overreaction in my opinion. New England is surely one of the best teams in the NFL but this line is absurd.

The Texans won by just six points against the Bengals in their Wild Card matchup on Saturday but they dominated by more than what that score is telling us. A pick six by the Bengals was the only touchdown scored and Houston dominated by outgaining Cincinnati 420-198. Looking at just the score is not a true indication as Houston stepped up after a lethargic end to the regular season and this is still a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball.

Betting against the Patriots at home in the playoffs was never a wise move as they were a perfect 4-0 from 2003 to 2007 but since then, New England is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home playoff games so while many will argue going against the Patriots at home is suicide, it is fact is not what it used to be. Playing against the Patriots coming off a bye is another myth as New England is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games with two weeks of rest, outscoring their opponents by just 3.9 ppg.

The Texans are obviously playing with revenge here and while road revenge is not a great scenario to back, this one is different. Houston was absolutely embarrassed on national television and it will be out to make sure that does not happen again. The Texans fall into a great situation as well as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Houston Texans

We saw all four Wild Card Round game stay under the total which helped ease some of the pain for bookmakers that were killed by all four favorites coming in. That being said, we are likely going to see more high scoring games in the Divisional Round and I think this one has the most potent to surpass the total by the greatest amount. These teams are a combined 20-13 to the under this season and it is the recent results where I feel we are getting the best value out of this number.

Seattle had gone on a 5-0 over streak prior to the final week of the regular season where it stayed under against the Rams and last week against Washington also resulted in a winning under ticket. Granted this is the highest total the Seahawks have seen all season but it is for a reason. The defense has allowed 17 points or less in six straight games but one look at the opposing offenses will tell you why, not counting last week because of the RGIII injury. Now comes a test.

The Falcons are ranked eighth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense and it is largely due to a passing offense that is sixth overall and fourth in ypa. They have the best one-two punch in the league with receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White not to mention tight end Tony Gonzalez and slot receiver Harry Douglas that work the underneath and middle of the field. This offense provides a tough matchup for arguably the best secondary in the NFL and Atlanta should be able to exploit it.

Seattle will be without defensive end Chris Clemons who tore his ACL against Washington and that is a big blow. He registered 11.5 sacks while forcing three fumbles for Seattle in 2012. Seattle falls into a contrarian over situation as we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team off two or more consecutive unders and allowing 17 or fewer ppg on the season. This situation is 27-5 to the over (84.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Over (113) Seattle Seahawks/(114) Atlanta Falcons

With the favorites going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card round, we are seeing a lot of value on some underdogs this week and this is one of them. It is no secret that the public loves this Denver team and why not? The Broncos closed on a perfect 4-0 ATS run while going 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Therefore, this line is inflated. Denver was a double-digit favorite in three of its last four games and while it covered all three of those, they were against teams not even sniffing the playoffs.

The kneejerk reaction for Baltimore would be it is in for an emotional letdown after taking out Indianapolis in what was Ray Lewis' last home game. If it was the regular season and the Ravens were not going to the playoffs then I will buy that but there is not going to be any sort of a letdown here in the postseason. Baltimore has proven that it can win on the road in the playoffs, going 5-3 straight up and ATS the last four years and not once has it seen a line this big.

Denver went into Baltimore and smacked around the Ravens earlier this season but the spot was a horrible one for Ravens when looking back. I was on Baltimore in that game but that was more of a play against the Broncos which were riding an eight-game winning streak. Baltimore was coming off two overtime games, where it went 1-1, as well as a game against Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between which it lost by three points. The situation is a lot different this week.

The Broncos have eclipsed 30 points in each of their last three games and with the week off, some of that momentum has been lost. Additionally, they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games. Baltimore falls into a phenomenal league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Baltimore Ravens

Not a whole lot needs to be said for this matchup as information has been thrown around for five weeks now. Looking at power rankings alone, Alabama and Notre Dame are separated by just two points with the Irish playing a slightly tougher schedule. Notre Dame went 5-0 against top 50 teams while Alabama went 3-1 against teams ranked within the top 50. Alabama is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying less than two touchdowns while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS this season away from home.

Both of these defenses are extremely powerful and it is not going to be easy for the offenses to get a lot going. Notre Dame has surrendered only 10.3 ppg which is the fewest in the country thanks to their huge front four and athletic linebacking core. Alabama has a huge offensive line that opened a lot of holes for a potent running attack but the Irish have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season. That is no accident and we saw how Alabama struggled against an LSU defense that is not as good.

On the other side, the outcome will have a lot to do how quarterback Everett Golson plays for the Irish. He was not very good early in the season as his lack of experience was glaring but he has developed into a very solid quarterback. Over his last five games he tallied 239 yards of offense per game or more while tossing seven touchdowns and only two interceptions and in four of those games rushed for a combined 224 yards. The Alabama defense is tough but Golson is the type of player than can give it fits.

Because of the SEC dominance in this particular bowl game over the years, Alabama is given a sizable edge. But is the SEC really as good this season as people are playing it out to be? A lot of the teams have looked extremely overrated and while bowl games can be considered a tough comparison, it does show the possibility of Alabama being slightly overrated as well. With these teams beating each other up during conference season, it can be argued that the problems were not as evident then as they are now.

We have the advantage of taking a sizable underdog that certainly has a shot at winning this game outright. That gives us two areas to win as an Irish victory means an obvious cover but they can also lose the game and we can still win in a close game. Alabama has to win going away to cover the ticket and this is the type of matchup that I just do not see happening. The Crimson Tide were dominant in this game last season and many will fall back on that but this year's Alabama version is not as strong. 10* (270) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is the final bowl game before the BCS Championship and while the names do not look good, we are dealing with two solid programs. Kent St. had a chance to play in a BCS bowl game but lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship so motivation could be an issue. However, considering that the Golden Flashes have never won a bowl game of any kind, motivation will be no issue at all. Kent St. is 15-3 over its last 18 games so even with the loss to the Huskies, confidence is apparent.

Arkansas St. is riding a seven-game winning streak but with this being its first game since December 1st, any momentum has been lost. The Red Wolves won the Sun Belt Conference for a second straight season so this is a very solid team with a very solid offense and a pretty decent defense. They defeated just two teams with a winning record though and while they too will be in search of their first ever bowl victory, they are at a huge disadvantage in the coaching category.

Kent St. head coach Darrell Hazell accepted the head coaching job at Purdue but unlike most coaches that leave immediately to go recruit and start their new position, Hazell is actually sticking around to coach him team. He wanted the opportunity to try to lead Kent St. to its first-ever bowl victory as this is the school's first postseason appearance since losing to Tampa in the Tangerine Bowl in 1972. The players and the captains said it was very important to have this staff involved.

Arkansas St. meanwhile is going to be without head coach Gus Malzahn who took over at Auburn and left right away. Defensive coordinator John Thompson will serve as Arkansas St.'s interim coach and this is nothing new to the Red Wolves. Last season they headed to this bowl game with an interim coach after Hugh Freeze departed to coach Mississippi, and they lost 38-20 to Northern Illinois. Sire, the Red Wolves can use that as motivation but it certainly is a distraction.

These teams are considered evenly matched and the power rankings prove it yet the Golden Flashes are significant underdogs here. That should suit them just fine though as they are 4-1-1 ATS this season when getting points while going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. Arkansas St. meanwhile is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games against teams averaging 4.75 ypc or better and the rushing game will be what carries the Golden Flashes to victory. 10* (268) Kent St. Golden Flashes

Indianapolis has been a great story this season from the huge turnaround from last season to the inspired play backing the coaching situation. Now we are at a different level and while the run was a fantastic one, this is where it comes to an end. The Colts are an extremely young team with nine starters having no playoff experience whatsoever and that is a pretty big thing at this level. Indianapolis has only three wins against teams with a winning record as it played the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Baltimore lost its regular season finale at Cincinnati but it wasn't because it was outplayed. The Ravens got the starters some work before pulling them to avoid injuries and while there is no momentum heading into the postseason, it should not be an issue here. They went 1-4 in their final five games and that will deter some people to back them but more importantly in my opinion is the fact that they outgained their last two opponents by 347 and 163 yards.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck had a great rookie season as he tossed 23 touchdowns and threw for 4,374 yards but it is hard to ignore the fact that he threw 18 interceptions and his 76.5 passer rating was seventh worst among qualified starters. The Ravens defense was not up to their usual dominating standards this season but they still finished 12th in scoring defense. Baltimore finished +9 in turnover margin, third in the AFC, while its 28 takeaways were fifth in the conference.

The Colts have had the ability to win close games this season but they are -12 in turnover margin and at -30 points in scoring margin, they are the only playoff team that is in the negative. While the offense has shown some good signs, it is too inconsistent to try and make any sort of run. The Colts have failed to reach 300 total yards in any of their last four games. On the other side, the defense finished the regular season ranked 26th overall and 21st in points allowed. Baltimore will have no issues moving the ball.

The Ravens have a great situation on their side as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10 ppg. Additionally, Baltimore is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games versus teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl. A great story comes to an end in Baltimore on Sunday. 10* (106) Baltimore Ravens

Same time. Same matchup. Same result? I definitely believe so. The media is saying the Texans are done and after losing three of their last four games to knock themselves out of a first round bye, the public has its doubts are well and rightfully so. This is one of the most talented teams in the league on both sides of the ball and if they come out with the fire and passion that they possessed early in the season, they are going to be a tough out but obviously they need to pick it up right here.

The Bengals have been here before, literally. Cincinnati played in Houston in the Wild Card round last year and it got hammered 31-10 and that was against a banged up Texans team that was missing some key players, most notably quarterback Matt Schaub. The Bengals will be better off this year with their experience but I still do not think they have what it takes to make noise in the postseason. They beat only two playoff teams this year, Washington when it had yet to hit its stride, and Baltimore in Week 17 when the Ravens rested their starters most of the game.

The gameplan should be an easy one for Houston as it needs to run the ball and should not have a problem doing so. The Texans last three losses produced an average of just 78.7 ypg on the ground and it is important to note that they are 7-0 in games this season in which Arian Foster rushed for 100-plus yards and 5-4 in the others. The Bengals rushing defense is average and while they went through a stretch of five games of not allowing 100 yards, they allowed 206 yards last week against Baltimore.

The Houston defense has been ravaged with injuries this season, notably the linebacking corps but the unit is pretty healthy coming into the playoffs. Overall, the Texans are seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense and despite the loss to the Colts, they allowed just 265 total yards. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in total offense and that is pretty weak considering they played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I do not see them having much success here.

Houston falls into a solid league-wide system where we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game. 10* (102) Houston Texans

Oklahoma has obviously had a very good season at 10-2 yet it is an underdog here for the first time this season. All of the hype that Texas A&M has received since defeating Alabama and then along with the Johnny Manziel Heisman Trophy win has put this team in the public spotlight like it hasn't been before and that is playing a big factor in this line. As is the fact that the Aggies come from the top conference in the nation but the SEC has not shown much so far in the postseason.

Oklahoma's speed and efficiency on offense will be a factor in deciding the winner because the Sooners have the athletes capable of running a fast-tempo scheme throughout the game's four quarters, a facet that developed over the course of the season. Against Oklahoma St., Oklahoma ran 103 offensive plays that eventually wore down the Cowboys defense late in the fourth quarter and a repeat of that is possible here since the Aggies did not see many offenses like this in the SEC.

Stopping the Aggies offense is top priority. If the Sooners can initiate a good pass rush while simultaneously taking away freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel's wide receivers, Oklahoma could very easily handcuff Texas A&M's potent scoring machine. In the two games Texas A&M lost this season, Manziel had just 87 rushing yards. He has to be able to move around to open up the offense so keeping him in the pocket will be top priority. It is easier said than done but the Sooners is more than capable.

The problem the Sooners have run into this season is trying to find a way to integrate the running game into the offense. In their two losses, they combined to run for just 103 yards but the Aggies rushing defense is fairly average. On the other side, coaching could be a concern as Texas A&M running backs coach Clarence McKinney will call the offensive plays in place of former offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who accepted the head coaching job at Texas Tech.

Oklahoma falls into a solid situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Texas A&M is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games away from home after gaining 525 or more yards in its previous game while the Sooners are 12-3 ATS in the 15 games under head coach Bob Stoops when the line is between +3 and -3. 10* (264) Oklahoma Sooners

This was pegged to be the BCS Championship with just a couple weeks remaining in the regular season but both Kansas St. and Oregon lost on the same Saturday and there was not enough time to recover. This isn't the most glamorous matchup but it is an intriguing one where two different styles of football will collide in Arizona. The Oregon offense is one of the best in the nation as it is fourth overall and second in scoring so stopping the Ducks will be impossible right? Wrong. Kansas St. is a type of team that Oregon has struggled against in the last few years in its system as Auburn in 2011, LSU in 2011 and Stanford in 2012 all bring a similar physical defense that the Wildcats possess. Kansas St. is not going to back down and will have no problem going up and hitting Oregon in the mouth. For the season, the Wildcats scored an astounding 143 points off turnovers, forging a plus-21 margin to lead the nation. That trait, coupled with their uncanny knack for protecting the football, often enabled Kansas St. to win some games when they were outgained. As for that offense, Kansas St. plans to control the clock with a solid running game and it will obviously want to keep Oregon off the field as much as possible. The Ducks defense is average as they are 47th overall and 26th in scoring and while the Wildcats are not flashy, they still average 40.7 ppg which is 10th most in the country. Kansas St. also has a significant edge in special teams, notable the kickoff and punt returns as it leads the nation in both categories. Two other big factors will be in play as Kansas St,. quarterback is 100 percent healthy once again and the other factor is coaching. Wildcats Bill Snyder is one of the best in the business while all of the Chip Kelly talk to the NFL is a huge distraction and one that should have waited until after this game had passed. Kansas St. is 6-0 ATS against teams averaging 200 rushing ypg while going 12-3 ATS against teams averaging 31 or more ppg over the last two seasons. 10* (261) Kansas St. Wildcats

Florida is obviously the better team in this matchup and that should lead the Gators to dictating the tempo and the way the game is played. They have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked fifth overall and third in scoring and they have allowed more than 20 points only once which came in their last game against Florida St. That game flew over the total which happened to be only the fourth game in 11 lined games that Florida surpassed the total. While the defense is one of the best, the offense has struggled all season as the Gators are ranked 101st in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. That scoring average is that high only because of a very positive turnover margin and Louisville is a team that does not turn the ball over much so Florida should not be given opportunities to take advantage. The Cardinals bring in a potent offense but the schedule had a lot to do with that as this is the first team from the top 50 that the Cardinals have had to face and the last time they saw a defense this good happened to come in their last game against Rutgers where they managed only 20 points. The passing offense is the strength but Louisville knows it has to run the ball to be successful as balance will be the key. Even when Louisville does try and pass, it is not going to be east. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an outstanding season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. The Gators only allow approximately 186.4 ypg passing while also picking off the eighth-most passes with 19. The Gators defense kept Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Georgia's Aaron Murray in check and should do the same to Bridgewater. Both teams fall into a great total situation as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 72-26 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (259) Louisville Cardinals/(260) Florida Gators

Both Georgia and Nebraska come into this game having lost their respective conference championship games so the team that can recover the most will have the big advantage here. That team will be Georgia. The Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker against Alabama in the SEC Championship and while a lot more was on the line than was on the line for Nebraska in its Big Ten Championship loss, I feel they will be plenty motivated here. One big reason is their losses in their last two bowl games including a loss against another Big Ten opponent Michigan St. last season in overtime. The story here will be the defense for Georgia that got manhandled against the Crimson Tide as they allowed 350 yards rushing. Georgia came into that game having allowed 302 and 306 rushing yards in its previous two games and the task will not be easy against a tough Nebraska rushing offense. However, this defense looked gassed at the end of the season and the time off to recharge is huge. The Huskers are coming off an embarrassing 70-31 loss against Wisconsin and the game was a lot worse than the score shows. The defense got exposed and will get exposed again against Aaron Murray who will be the toughest quarterback they have seen this year. Also exposed was an offensive line that the Badgers were able to control throughout the game as most of the yardage came in garbage time. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while going 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after two straight games of committing one or fewer turnovers. From top to bottom, Georgia is clearly the better team and it will show on the field come Tuesday. 10* (254) Georgia Bulldogs

Northwestern was a covering machine this year as the Wildcats are 11-1 against the number and that is no doubt playing into this line. They won nine games this year but had only one big win down the stretch which was a three-point win over Michigan St. in the second to last game of the season. Northwestern did have quality wins over Syracuse and Vanderbilt early in the season but that was before those teams hit their stride so those are not a very good indication of the competition. Motivation will not be lacking for Northwestern for sure as the Wildcats have lost nine consecutive bowl games since their lone victory, which came in the 1949 Rose Bowl. Mississippi St. started the season 7-0 but finished 1-4 down the stretch and the schedule had a lot to do with that. The Bulldogs lost three straight games after the undefeated start but those games were against Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU so there is nothing to be ashamed of there. A loss in the season finale against Mississippi in the Egg Bowl can be considered a bad loss for sure and Mississippi St. will be out for some retribution after that. The Bulldogs defense crumbled down the stretch but they feel that the time off has allowed them to heal, both physically and mentally. The challenge will be tough but this is one of the most talented defenses around and as long as they are communicating, they will be tough to break. The SEC was as powerful as always while the Big Ten was in a down year so the fact that the Wildcats are favorites here is a surprise. While Northwestern has been a huge moneymaker, it is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after a win by 20 or more points while Mississippi St. is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 20 or more points in the first half in two straight games. 10* (250) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

Tulsa won the C-USA Championship with a victory in overtime against Central Florida which punched its ticket into the Liberty Bowl. At 10-3, the Golden Hurricane have a chance to match their most win in school history so motivation will certainly not be an issue. Also adding to the motivation for them is the fact they opened the season with a loss at Iowa St. so they are getting a rare chance at same season revenge. Tulsa went on to win seven straight games after that and its only two losses the rest of the way were by four points at Arkansas and eight points at SMU, which was right after claiming the C-USA West so it can be forgiven for that. Iowa had a pretty solid season but after starting off 4-1, the Cyclones lost five of their final seven games. They did have a big win over Baylor but the other win came against 1-11 Kansas. To their credit, they did lose to some very good teams down the stretch but there are too many issues going on right now. They are starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback and while San Richardson did look good against West Virginia and Kansas, those teams have the 118th and 114th pass defenses in the country respectively. A big factor in that win earlier this season for Iowa St. was that running back Shontrelle Johnson ran for a career-high 120 yards and a touchdown. However Johnson didn't gain more than 73 yards in any of his next 11 games and is out for this one after injuring his right knee in a practice earlier this month. Additionally, Iowa St. will be without three-time All-Big XII linebacker and captain Jake Knott. Tulsa has a great rushing offense and the passing game will flourish against the 113th ranked Cyclones passing defense. Look for Tulsa to get its revenge in a game it should be favored in but is not. 10* (244) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Two disappointing teams square off in the Sun Bowl as USC, which came in with National Championship aspirations, sitting at 7-5 and Georgia Tech, which was expected to contend in the ACC, actually coming in with a losing record. The Trojans are arguably the biggest disappointment in all of college football and even after an early loss against Stanford, they were still talking BCS Bowl and a National Championship. Both goals went away toward the end of the season as USC dropped four of its last five games. Georgia Tech is the only team in a bowl game this season with as losing record but because it played 13 games that included the ACC Championship, it was able to get to the six-win mark for eligibility. Going out on a high note will be important, especially returning to the place they lost last year. Besides falling 30-27 to Utah a season ago in the same stadium, they have lost seven straight bowl games so it will be the seniors that will be out trying to avoid a 0-4 bowl record. For the Trojans, quarterback Matt Barkley is out while receiver Marqise Lee is listed as questionable so the offense will be far from full strength. Redshirt freshman Max Wittek will be under center in Barkley's place after making his first career start against Notre Dame, going 14 of 23 for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He could be in more trouble if Lee cannot go. On the other side, the Yellow Jackets triple option attack will be hard to stop. They ran for over 4,000 yards while six players ran for more than 400 yards and three for more than 600 yards so the balance is hard to contain. USC is going bowling for the first time in three years because of NCAA sanctions but this is not where the Trojans wanted to be so motivation should very well be lacking. 10* (241) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Dallas and Washington are playing for the NFC East and neither team will want to get into a shootout as that is where the majority of mistakes can be made. We are getting a lot of value here as well based on recent results and recent meeting history. These teams met on Thanksgiving and the game flew over the number as 69 points were scored on a 47-point closing number. Additionally, both teams have been involved in high-scoring games of late as Dallas as gone over in two straight games and even though both went into overtime, that did not come into play. Meanwhile Washington has gone over in three straight games and because of these factors, we are seeing a very high number here. Not counting Dallas playing New Orleans last week, this is the highest total the Cowboys have seen and for Washington, it has gone under in the last four games where the total was 48 points or higher. Add to the fact this is the Sunday night game and the public will be all over the over so the market had to adjust. Dallas is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games on the road with a total of 45.5 or higher while Washington is 12-5 to the under in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (315) Dallas Cowboys/(316) Washington Redskins

The Patriots played a horrible game at home against San Francisco two weeks ago and instead of coming out and rebounding huge last week, they struggled again against the Jaguars. New England won but if was hardly a good effort and the Patriots know that they need a big game heading into the playoffs. New England is still in line for the top seed in the AFC but it needs both Houston and Denver to lose. The Texans play early so New England will know its fate but that doesn't mean it will quit should Houston win as a first round bye would still be a possibility should Denver lose. That scenario isn't likely but as stated, the Patriots are going to play to win and win big to get their momentum and confidence back in order. The Dolphins are not going to give in either as they have won two straight games but those both came at home against the lowly Jaguars and Bills. They have lost three straight road games and overall have been outgained in nine of their last 11 games and 11 of 16 on the season. They hung tough against New England in the first meeting and we are actually getting line value on the Patriots as they were favored by eight points in Miami and are favored by only two more points here. New England is 18-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under head coach Bill Belichick so it will again play full out for four quarters. 10* (304) New England Patriots

Seattle is playing at a very high level right now so this will not be a very popular pick but the majority of mine in the NFL aren't popular anyway. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over San Francisco to keep their divisional hopes alive but those hopes are slim. Seattle needs to win and have San Francisco to lost at home against Arizona and that is pretty unlikely so we could see Seattle resting some players as the game progresses. It was the third straight blowout victory for the Seahawks as they have outscored their opponents 150-30 but keeping this up is extremely difficult. Because of the big wins, the line has gone through the roof and that is proven by the fact that Seattle was laying the exact same number against the Cardinals at home three weeks ago and the Rams cannot be compared to Arizona. St. Louis has closed strong and while it will not make the playoffs, finishing with a winning record is the goal right now. The Rams are 4--1 over their last five games and they have not lost on the road since mid-October at Miami, going 3-0-1 since then. This is a revenge game for Seattle but that is not a big factor and it actually goes against the Seahawks as we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (331) St. Louis Rams

I'm a little surprised at this line. I know the Big Ten has had a down season and every team from the conference is an underdog in the bowl games but I feel this is one of those that is wrong. Michigan St. had a down season as it finished 6-6 but that record should be so much better. With the exception of Notre Dame, every one of their losses was by four points or fewer including four by a field goal of less. The 6-6 record is playing into this line but this team is one of the best 6-6 teams in the country.

TCU started the season strong once again at 4-0 but then quarterback Casey Pachall was thrown off the team after being arrested. The Horned Frogs went on the lose their next game at home against Iowa St. and could not get anything going consistently the rest of the season. They had a signature win at Texas on Thanksgiving but could not carry the momentum as they lost the season finale at home against Oklahoma. Like Michigan St., they were better on the road than at home.

Instead of focusing on what might have been, the Spartans are using this final game as a springboard into the 2013 season. Head coach Mark Dantonio has always emphasized winning the final game of the season and was able to last season by beating Georgia in the Outback Bowl. Michigan St. is playing the roll of the rushing dogs as well. TCU was last in the Big XII with 3.9 ypc - and the Horned Frogs may have a tough time moving the ball against Michigan St. which was fourth in total defense, allowing only 274.5 ypg.

Michigan St. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home against teams with a winning record while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 225 ypg or less in two straight games. The Horned Frogs meanwhile are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. 10* (238) Michigan St. Spartans

It was a tough start to the season for Navy but the Midshipmen closed it out by winning seven of eight, capped by claiming the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy against Army. They are obviously peaking at the right time and the time off should not be an issue of losing momentum as their regular season finale came just three weeks ago while Arizona St. has been off for an additional 15 days which is a huge difference. Navy has not won a bowl game since 2009 so there is a lot of motivation here.

The Sun Devils closed the season with two straight wins including a victory over rival Arizona after entering the fourth quarter down by 10 points. Prior to that, Arizona St. lost four in a row so it was definitely a big way to end the season but we are unsure if it can keep it going. Again, the additional time off is a huge disadvantage and it will be argued that the Sun Devils benefitted to prepare for the Navy running game, they actually did not know the opponent until much later.

Navy and its triple-option offense hope to take advantage of a Sun Devils defense which allowed four of its final six opponents to rush for more than 200 yards. The Midshipmen are sixth in the nation in rushing offense with 275.6 ypg. Overall, the Sun Devils are 72nd in the country in rushing defense including 10th in the Pac 12. they possess one of the best passing defense in the country but it won't matter here and a big reason for that is they got gashed in the running game.

Navy falls into a great situation as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. Navy is the epitome of a bowl rushing dog and we take advantage of a very generous line. 10* (231) Navy Midshipmen

Texas Tech is a sizable favorite here but a lot has changed between the time this line came out and gametime yet the line has not moved much at all. Gone is head coach Tommy Tuberville who took the head coaching job at Cincinnati. Preparing for a game without the coach that brought you there is always tough but at least the Red Raiders were in good hands with offensive coordinator Neal Brown leading the team. That is until bolted to Kentucky two days later to take the same position.

Because of the defections, offensive line coach Chris Thomsen will take over as interim coach and receivers coach Sonny Cumbie will handle duties as offensive coordinator. Granted they know the systems and players but they are far from having the ability to lead in a bowl game with so little time to prepare. Making matters worse, Red Raiders starting defensive back Cornelius Douglas, backup linebacker Chris Payne and backup defensive tackle Leon Mackey won't play in the bowl game due to rules infractions.

Neither team comes in with a lot of momentum which is a wash as Minnesota closed 2-6 in its last eight games while Texas Tech finished 1-4 in its last five games. This is the first bowl game for the Gophers since 2009 and they will be going for their first bowl win since 2004 so there is definitely motivation in that regard. What is Texas Tech playing for? Maybe they want to prove to their coaches that they can win without them but laying a number this big is asking too much for the Red Raiders.

These teams met in the 2006 Insight Bowl and while that game has no bearing on this contest, the Minnesota players have been made aware of what happened. The Golden Gophers held a 38-7 third-quarter lead before allowing the Red Raiders to rally and win 44-41 in overtime, which is the biggest bowl comeback in Division I history. Revenge is certainly not the angle to be used but it is an interesting dynamic that will have the players definitely be focused for the sake of the program.

Minnesota did not have much production offense down the stretch but it should be in for a big day here. The Red Raiders only forced 10 turnovers, third-worst in the FBS and didn't have one in their final five games while the defense allowed at least 52 points in four of their last six games, finishing 90th in scoring defense overall. Playing on double-digit underdogs prior to the big New Years bowls and beyond has always been a great angle and the situation here only makes it stronger. 10* (227) Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Bobcats come in with little momentum but have a lot of motivation. Ohio looked to be a BCS buster early in the season as it jumped out to a 7-0 start including a win over Penn St. but then things turned around in a hurry. The Bobcats were upset at Miami Ohio which was the start of four losses in their final five games to finish 8-4. The Bobcats played here two years ago against Troy and were pounded 48-21 so they are obviously looking for a better outcome this time around so motivation is in play.

The Warhawks opened the season with a win against Arkansas and a three-point loss to Auburn in overtime. Those games put them on the map but after the two opponents finished a combined 7-17, some of the luster was lost. UL-Monroe would go on to finish at 6-2 in the Sun Belt Conference, good for a three-way tie for second place but had only two wins over teams with a winning record and one of those was a one-point victory over Western Kentucky in overtime. Still, this is a pretty potent team.

The big issue for the Ohio collapse was injuries as it lost 13 starters at some point down the stretch. The Bobcats are more healthy thanks to the time off but the offensive line is still a mess with three players out and another still banged up. This is a problem for their running game which started strong but faltered down the stretch. UL-Monroe has a strong rushing defense to begin with and now it should be even better off. The Warhawks have advantages in both offensive ypc and defensive ypc which are always big.

UL-Monroe is playing in its first ever bowl game so there will be no lack of motivation here either. The Warhawks went 7-2 down the stretch and it is very important to note that quarterback Kolton Browning was knocked out early in the loss against UL-Lafayette and missed the next game against Arkansas St., the other loss. Browning because the Sun Belt Conference Play of the Year which shows how important he is to the team and now healthy again, he will be a contributor here.

The Warhawks also get the advantage of playing this game near its home as Shreveport is a mere 97 miles on Interstate 20 from the Warhawks campus in Monroe. Ohio is just 1-8 ATS in its nine games under head coach Frank Solich after scoring 14 points or fewer in its last game while the Warhawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Unlike its conference mate Western Kentucky, look for UL-Monroe to take advantage of its first ever bowl game. 10* (224) UL-Monroe Warhawks

The Blue Devils closed the season with four straight losses but the good news is that Duke will have had a month to forget about that horrible ending and focus on its first bowl game in nearly two decades. The Blue Devils are excited about playing this game just over two hours from their campus and there will be two forms of motivation here. Duke will be out to avoid a losing season and not head into next year on a five-game losing streak while at the same time, win the programs first bowl game since 1960.

Cincinnati claimed a share of the Big East title with a 5-2 record and it is 9-3 overall with a chance to win 10 games for the fifth time in six years. All three losses were by a touchdown or less including a setback at home against Rutgers that ended the chance of an outright championship. The Bearcats closed with two wins to end the regular season but has only one win against a winning team over the last three months of the season. In addition, the psyche of this team is in question.

Cincinnati is one of a number of teams that will be playing a bowl without the coach that got it there. Butch Jones turned down an offer from Colorado amid speculation that he was staying with the Bearcats only to find out the next day he was heading to Tennessee. The Bearcats hired Tommy Tuberville away from Texas Tech but defensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the team, as announced following Jones' departure. They can rise to the occasion or just play it out and I expect the latter to take place.

The Blue Devils offense will have to perform at a high level to stay in this one and while they struggled down the stretch, rumor has it that some new wrinkles have been added for this game. Cincinnati is 41st in total defense but 12th in scoring defense thanks to an opportunistic defense that had 24 takeaways. Duke gave it up only 17 times though so taking care of the ball will again obviously be important. The Bearcats are at a disadvantage in the passing game, ranked 63rd on offense and 72nd on defense.

This number has come down quite a bit from its opener as early sharp money came pouring in on the Blue Devils and justifiably so. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams allowing 34 or more ppg and Duke has a big coaching edge in David Cutcliffe as his teams are 22-9 ATS away from home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Duke is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 450 or more yards last game. 10* (220) Duke Blue Devils

Central Michigan opened up 2-1 which included a big upset (at the time, not anymore) at Iowa but then it dropped four straight, all by double digits, and five of its next six games to fall to 3-6. The Chippewas can thank the schedule makers as they finished with three cupcakes to close out the season and were able to win them all even though they were outgained in two of those. The final game against Massachusetts was the only game this season that Central Michigan outgained its opponent and that was only by 27 total yards.

Western Kentucky made a significant hire with Bobby Petrino taking over as head coach although defensive coordinator Lance Guidry was named interim coach and will coach the team in the bowl game. This is the first bowl game in the history of the program so there will certainly be no lack of motivation on the Hilltoppers sideline especially considering they were 7-5 last year and were passed over on a bowl. They will be out to prove something tonight while adding some history to the program.

The interim coach situation for the Hilltoppers is not a bad one though and is of no concern here. Guidry is making his second appearance as an interim coach in a bowl after leading Miami (Ohio) to a 34-21 victory in the 2011 GoDaddy. com Bowl over Middle Tennessee St. following Mike Haywood's departure to coach Pittsburgh. The challenge is to get the Hilltoppers playing like they did early in the season as a 1-3 wasn't ideal although they did end the season with that victory.

The Chippewas do not possess a great offense and have a below average defense. They are ranked 67th in total offense and 94th in total defense, both of which are good for seventh in the 14-team MAC. The Hilltoppers offense is slightly better but it is their defense that could be the difference as they come in 23rd in total defense which was tops in the Sun Belt Conference. Western Kentucky led the conference with 31 sacks and was 12th among FBS teams with 7.42 tackles for loss per game.

At 125th in the Sagarin Ratings, the Chippewas are the lowest-ranked team in a bowl game and that is pretty bad considering there are 21 teams from the FCS ranked ahead of them. Central Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record while Western Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine game against teams allowing 31 or more ppg. Also, the Hilltoppers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games away from home coming off a home game. 10* (216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

I always take a look at the underdogs in bowls with lines this big but I cannot justify a play on SMU and Fresno St. is favored this big for a reason. The Bulldogs started slow with a 2-2 record but went on a 7-1 to end the season with the lone loss coming against Boise St. by 10 points on the road. The other losses were at Oregon and at Tulsa which came by just a single point. The Bulldogs should be pretty motivated to win as they have lost three straight bowl games so the seniors will want to go out winners.

Despite being bowl eligible, I'm not sold on this SMU team. When SMU won, it won big and when it lost, it lost big as well as five of its six wins were by 17 points or more while four of its six losses were by 22 or more points. Those five big wins came against four non-bowl teams and one FCS team while the four big losses were all against teams playing in a bowl game. There is motivation for SMU as they could be the first teams in the history of the program to win back-to-back bowl games.

The Bulldogs have edges all over the field. The Bulldogs bring in one of the top offenses in the country as they are ranked 14th overall and 12th in scoring and they really lit it up during their closing five-game winning streak, averaging 47.2 ppg, winning those games by an average of 25.8 ppg. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for 3,742 yards and 36 touchdowns this year, while running back Robbie Rouse topped 1,000 yards for the third consecutive season. This offense will not be stopped by a below average SMU defense.

The SMU offense made up for the defense in some cases but it still ranked 93rd in the country and scoring was only better because it is 12th in the nation in turnover margin. Those turnovers will be tough to come by here because Fresno St. finished fifth in the nation in turnover margin. On the other side, the Bulldogs are 19th in total defense and 27th in scoring defense as they allowed 20 points or fewer seven times including 10 points or less three times.

This is a homecoming for SMU head coach June Jones who is back at Aloha Stadium for the first time since 2007 when he coached Hawaii but that won't matter here. Fresno St. is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite and 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 or more points this season. Meanwhile SMU is 3-12 in its last 15 games away from home coming off an outright win as an underdog while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games away from home after a conference win by six point or less as an underdog. 10* (214) Fresno St. Bulldogs

I won with New England two weeks ago as it easily took care of Houston on national television. Based on that and the whole public to see, I went against the Patriots and took the 49ers and they were able to take out New England, again on national television. Now San Francisco is riding the overinflated public side angle and it is playing its second straight difficult road game in one of the most difficult venues in the league. The 49ers are a great team but not in a great position.

The Seahawks have won three straight games to climb right into the playoff picture and the divisional race for that matter. Seattle is 9-5 and it has the best record in the NFC for non-divisional leaders so getting that first Wild Card spot is looking good as it can clinch with a win. Seattle and Atlanta are the only two remaining undefeated home teams in the league heading into this week. The last home loss for the Seahawks came last season in the final home game and it was against the 49ers so it looks to be payback time.

Normally, playing on a team like Seattle is a no-no as it is coming off consecutive blowout wins where it put up a ton of points and that typically is a play against situation if anything. There is a big difference here though. Those teams coming off big win tend to get overvalued next time out but that isn't the case here as the Seahawks have moved to a home underdog in some spots. As a rule, we would have to lay down a lot of points to grab Seattle but instead we are getting value this week.

While the scores the past two weeks have appeared to be somewhat an anomaly, the Seahawks were trending upward in scoring even before the two blowouts. Over the past eight weeks, the Seahawks are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 33.4 ppg, trailing only New England, and they have scored 21 or more points in seven straight games after doing so only twice in their first seven games. The offense might have an edge again as the 49ers defense was on the field for 94 plays against New England.

While San Francisco's defense gets most of the pub, Seattle is ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense so the unit is just a solid and is that much better at home. The Seahawks fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Seattle Seahawks

This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Giants. New York is coming off that blowout loss in Atlanta so it needs to right the ship right now if it wants to have any chance of defending its Super Bowl title. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFL East and a five-way tie for the second and final NFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore comes in with the better record but the Giants are the better team and in a good spot to bounce back.

It can be argued that the Ravens are also in a great spot to bounce back following their third straight loss last week against the Broncos. I disagree with that though as this is a very fragile team right now that has actually gotten away with a lot of fortunate breaks. Wins over Kansas City, Dallas and San Diego all could have gone the other way so going 3-0 right there is lucky. The Ravens have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and that is finally starting to come back to haunt them.

This is an interesting scenario where we could catch a break based on one of the early games. Should the Steelers defeat Cincinnati at home at 1:00, Baltimore locks up the division and with no chance at a first round bye, it would not be surprising to see the Ravens sit some players for at least part of this game. Obviously we can not make this play based on hoping another team wins but that could only add to the strength. Play it early as the line will likely go up quite a bit if the Steelers are winning comfortably.

After starting the season strong, Baltimore has slipped considerably. It is ranked 21st in total offense and 26th in total defense and while the scoring rankings are considerably higher, it is starting to come back more into line. The Giants have been hit or miss for the last few games but with the exception of last week, the offense has been more consistent as they are 10th overall and sixth in scoring. They have not been held to single-digits in scoring since 2009 and have not been shutout since the 2005 playoffs.

That being said, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Baltimore is now 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 360 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being close to a touchdown per game. 10* (121) New York Giants

Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in its wins over Atlanta and San Diego but that makes this the perfect time to go against the Panthers. It is extremely difficult to justify a team that is 5-9 on the season to be favored over a team that is just one game worse by this many points. I have been on the Panthers quite a few times this season but not when they have been favored as they have lost four of five games outright when laying points and this is by far the largest they have put down this season.

Oakland is coming off an impressive win over Kansas City and while beating the Chiefs is far from quality, it gave this team some much needed confidence and momentum to try and close the season strong. The victory snapped a six-game losing skid for Oakland and the big factor was that it was able to run the ball which is a key to the Raiders success. They have not done very well on the east coast but considering this is the same line they got in Baltimore and Cincinnati, two playoff teams, the value is definitely there.

The Raiders rushed for a season high 203 yards against Kansas City and it was just the fifth time all season they have surpassed even 100 yards on the ground. They are 3-2 in those games but one of those losses was at Atlanta where they lost by just a field goal. Carolina's rushing defense has been great the last two weeks but it will be put to the test here with a healthy Darren McFadden which is huge for Oakland. The Panthers have allowed over 120 yards rushing in eight of their 14 games this season.

A lot of the talk now is about the resurgent Cam Newton and in all fairness, he has been exceptional over his last five games. Facing the Raiders would think to keep that going but they are coming off their best game of the season and the defense can feed off that effort. Carolina is coming off two 30-point efforts but it is still ranked 22nd in scoring offense and it hasn't been consistent enough to keep rolling like this. With a game at New Orleans to close out the season, look for a possible lookahead here as well.

The Raiders fall into a great contrarian situation here as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 83-46 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games while the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. Too many points to pass up here. 10* (105) Oakland Raiders

I lost playing against Dallas last week but I will again fade the Cowboys here. They were fortunate to get out of last week with a win in overtime as they got a gift wrapped interception from Ben Roethlisberger and converted that into the game winning field goal. Dallas is now tied with the Giants and Redskins for first place in the NFC East so this is no doubt a must win situation and as we all know, must wins situations do not always translate into wins with the pressure involved.

We did win on New Orleans last week as the Saints shook off two poor performances, or should say Drew Brees shook off two poor performances, and easily defeated the Buccaneers. Obviously the playoffs are a very slim option for the Saints and we saw what happened when they were able to play loose. New Orleans has won the yardage battle in each of the last three games and closing the season with a big finish is a big goal right now. But the playoffs are still a slight possibility so winning is still top priority.

New Orleans needs a lot of help to get it but it really isn't very complicated. The Saints need to win this week and against Carolina next week. On top of that the Saints need Dallas to lose its final game, the Rams to lose at least once, and the Vikings, Giants, and Bears all to lose their final two games. Sure it is not very likely but with a chance still there, we will be getting a big performance out of the entire team. This includes both offense and defense, the latter showing a ton of improvement.

The Saints have now gone four straight games without allowing 400 yards on defense after allowing over 400 yards in each of their first 10 games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last seven and five of their last nine games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a three-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season. December has let them down before and I see it happening again.

New Orleans is +10 points in scoring margin and could easily be 8-6, whereas Dallas is -11 points in scoring margin and is pretty fortunate to be where it is right now. Play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing a 61 percent or higher completion percentage while Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games in that same dynamic. 10* (115) New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are now a win away from clinching a first round bye in the playoffs after dismantling the Giants last Sunday. While the win was impressive, it can be chalked up as the Giants losing the game as they had opportunities to keep the game close early but missed a short third down conversion which led to a missed field goal and then missed a short fourth down conversion in the second quarter. This is obviously a big one for Atlanta but this is a big number to be putting down in this spot.

The Lions season has unraveled pretty quickly as after a 4-4 start, they have dropped six straight games and you can blame turnovers. Last week in their 28-point loss to the Cardinals, they had four turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. During the six-game losing streak, Detroit outgained four opponents by a total of 286 yards while it was outgained in the two other games by only 43 total yards so it is clearly playing better than that winless record indicates.

Motivation plays a big part in handicapping this time of year and while Atlanta has it, we have to make sure Detroit has it as well. "Everybody in the league is the same way," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said. "I dare you to find a team in the NFL that will say we're playing for next year or stuff like that. There's too much urgency in this league. There's too much at stake every single week for individuals as players, for coaches, for organizations. There's too much every single week to strive to win for."

Despite allowing 38 points last week, the Lions defense was excellent once again as it allowed just 196 total yards. Overall, the defense is ranked 12th in the NFL while the offense is ranked second and those rankings usually do not fit a team that is 4-10. Both of those rankings are better than those of the Falcons so staying on the right side of the turnovers is what needs to be done for Detroit. Heading back home after a two-game roadtrip and on the national stage will have the Lions ready.

Detroit falls into two solid situations. We play on home underdogs or pickems coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 75-35 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by 28 or more points while Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (102) Detroit Lions

East Carolina finished in a tie with UCF in the C-USA East Division but lost the tiebreaker after losing to the Knights 40-20. It should be noted that those seven conference wins all came against teams not playing in a bowl game and its only non-conference win came against Appalachian St. of the FCS. The Pirates lost its other three non-conference games by a combined score of 131-44 and those three opponents are all in a bowl game as well.

UL-Lafayette finished in a tie for second place in the Sun Belt Conference with a 6-2 record with one of those losses coming against conference champion Arkansas St. by 23 points. Its only win against a team with a winning conference record was a victory at rival UL-Monroe but you cannot blame them on the weakness of the conference. In non-conference action, the Cajuns got thumped at Oklahoma St. but lost by just a touchdown at Florida on a blocked punt return for a score with only 13 seconds remaining.

Both offenses are very potent but I like the balance of the Cajuns and not just the balance between run and pass but the balance between the players. Quarterback Terrance Broadway has been outstanding over the second half and he along with running back Alonzo Harris combined for over 1,400 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. The receiving corps is led by Harry Peoples with 61 receptions for 774 yards and five touchdowns. However, three other receivers have over 500 yards and at least three touchdowns.

Additionally, Lafayette is very efficient when it gets into the redzone as it is scoring at a 94 percent clip which is second in the nation only to Louisville. East Carolina is 84th in the nation in scoring defense and 77th in total defense so it won't be showing much resistance. The Pirates allowed 40 or more points on four different occasions and again, this was against a pretty weak schedule. On the other side, the Cajuns allow more yards but allow fewer points which is big here.

The Cajuns won here last season over San Diego St. on a last second field goal as six-point underdogs but now they take on the role of favorites by that same amount. They fall into a great situation also as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The favorite brings it home here. 10* (210) La-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

San Diego St. claimed a share of the MWC title thanks to a seven-game winning streak to end the season and it caught a very good break in its bowl game as it is playing very close to home. This means great fan support and limited distractions even though the players are not staying in their normal digs as they are shacking up in a hotel similar to BYU. Playing on their home field is more good than bad but the Aztecs have some disadvantages that go beyond that.

BYU enters this game with a 7.5 record but it easily could have been better. Losses to Utah, Boise St. and Notre Dame were by a combined seven points and all of those came on the road so the Cougars are arguably a lot better than their record shows. They win with defense as BYU brings in the nation's third best defense, allowing only 266.3 ypg. The Aztecs have scored a lot but the total offense is ranked only 57th in the nation so they could have some issues against the Cougars stop unit.

The big mystery here is the quarterback situation for BYU. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall said there's no change to the status of senior quarterback Riley Nelson, who has been the Cougars starter this season, but who's also nursing a rib injury. With Nelson still questionable for Thursday's game, backup James Lark has gotten more reps in practice. Lark started in Nelson's place in the Cougar's final game against New Mexico, and threw for 384 yards and six touchdowns in the win.

While we may not know who is starting just yet, the Aztecs are getting as well which makes their preparation a little more difficult. Mendenhall said he will make a decision on his starter on game day so San Diego St. has to prepare for two different quarterbacks who are pretty different in their quarterbacking styles. The Aztecs defense has been spotty all season as they are 43rd overall and 44th in scoring and BYU caught fire near the end of the season, scoring 41, 52 and 50 points in three of its last four games.

BYU has a great situation on its side as we play on teams away from home in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1992. Additionally, BYU is 8-0 ATS against teams allowing 58 percent completions or more while the Aztecs are 9-21 ATS against teams allowing 3.25 or less ypc. 10* (205) BYU Cougars

We won with the Jets last Sunday against Jacksonville and we will back them again here. The two-game winning streak has put them back in the hunt for the playoffs and with a very favorable schedule to close out, they are in excellent shape but will obviously still need some help along the way. The public is still fading this team which is just fine as it gives us good value with the number in what is a must win spot. Normally, cases like that lead to inflated numbers but that is not the case here.

Tennessee lost its third straight game last week at Indianapolis and it has dropped five of its last six games to fall out of the playoff picture. The Titans will no doubt try and bring their A game here with this game being on national television but the problem is they don't have much of an A game. They have struggled on both sides of the ball but turnovers remain the biggest factor in their struggles as their 26 giveaways are tied for third most in the AFC.

The Jets are no stranger to turnovers either but Tennessee has just 16 takeaways with is fifth fewest in the conference. New York has a chance to get the offense going once again as the titans are ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in points allowed. I expected a bigger game from Mark Sanchez last week but we didn't get it but now he faces a unit ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in passing ypa allowed. The return of Braylon Edwards could be a huge boost as he is expected to play right away.

New York still possesses a stout defense as it is ranked eighth overall and while the rushing defense has been a weakness, the Titans have not been able to do much of late. Running back Chris Johnson looked like he was finally out of his slump but he has been held to 175 yards on 53 carries (3.3 ypc) while failing to reach the end zone during the Titans' three-game slide. New York's defense has been excellent the past two weeks against the NFL's two worst offenses.

The Jets fall into a great league-wide situation here as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more total ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 total ypg. This situation is 51-26 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and is 5-23-1 ATS in its last 29 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. The Jets playoff hopes stay alive. 10* (331) New York Jets

The Patriots were three-point favorites over the 49ers prior to the game against Houston and now the line has increased significantly. It's a pretty safe reason why. New England looked dominant against Houston on Monday night and it will be a very heavy bet team again this week. As of Wednesday morning, over two-thirds of the action is on the Patriots according to offshore reports and while we won with them against the Texans, we will be going against them here as value has clearly hit the side of the 49ers.

San Francisco is coming off a win over Miami on Sunday and now it heads east for what has turned into a big game for both sides. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC as they own wins over both Denver and Houston, the two teams that are fighting for the top spot. On the other side, this is far from meaningless for the 49ers as they have a game at Seattle next week so should they lose here, they could be just a half-game up going into next week with the division on the line.

While the Patriots were able to shred through the Houston defense on Monday, things will not be as easy here. The Texans have struggled this season against good passing teams but San Francisco is much different. Houston is 19th against the pass while San Francisco is second in that category as well as first in points allowed, ypa passing, and rushing touchdowns allowed while ranked second in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense. New England will have a tough time here.

The 49ers offense is not as strong but it doesn't need to be when the defense is playing at such a high level and we will see that in this spotlight game. San Francisco is 12th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense so it is an above average unit and will face a Patriots defense that has improved in points allowed over the last few games but are still ranked 26th in total defense. The 49ers will have success running the ball as New England has allowed 100 or more yards rushing in seven straight games.

San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 ypg or more, 9-1 ATS against teams allowing 7.0 or more ypa passing and 14-4 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Also, we play on teams in the second half of the season allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (329) San Francisco 49ers

The Steelers lost a big game last week against the Chargers and it was one they could have done without. Pittsburgh is now tied with the Bengals for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC with the Jets just one game back so now it is dealing with an absolute must win scenario. The good news is that the Steelers final two games are at home against the Bengals and Browns but neither of those games are gimmies anymore. Expect a big bounceback effort from Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Dallas played a very courageous game in Cincinnati last week following the tragedy that took place the previous morning. The Cowboys rallied late for the victory and while a playoff push is a necessity, this is not going to be an easy spot. Similar to the Chiefs two weeks ago when they came together in the midst of a tragedy and won and then laid an egg the following week, I can see the same happening here as the emotions of what transpired is too much to overcome the following week.

After a four-game winning streak, the Steelers have dropped three of its last four games but they outgained their opponent in each of those games. They have been outgained only twice all season and on the year, they are outgaining opponents by 79.4 ypg so they are definitely playing better than their record indicated. The difference? Turnovers. Pittsburgh has not won the turnover battle since Week Five against the Eagles as they have lost the turnover battle six times and tied it three times in the last nine games.

The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a two-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season, which they will be striving for this week. The offense gained just 288 total yards against the Bengals last week and now they face a Steelers defense that is ranked first in the NFL, yielding just 262.4 ypg and have to go on without leading receiver Dez Bryant.

The Steelers opened as underdogs and were quickly bet up to favorites with early money. It is definitely the right move and coaching will be a big factor in this game as Mike Tomlin is clearly better than Jason Garrett. Case in point, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss while the Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. That is based on preparation in the situation and the Steelers once again will have the significant edge. 10* (325) Pittsburgh Steelers

Arizona got embarrassed last Sunday in Seattle 58-0 and after starting the season 4-0, the Cardinals have dropped their last nine games and put head coach Ken Whisenhunt on the hot seat. Not many people will be touching the Cardinals this week after getting outgained by 339 total yards but that is exactly why we will be on them because it sets up the typical 'bounce' angle in the NFL as well as provide significant line value. The number here is an overreaction to that blowout loss.

The overreaction is proven by the fact that thee is no way Detroit should be favored no the road by this many points over any team. Sure the talent is there but the Lions do not know how to win at this point as they have lost five straight games including the last three by a single possession. Coming off three straight home games followed by a game at rival Green Bay where they have not won in over two decades, this team that has no hopes for the playoffs has no interest in this game whatsoever.

This game reminds me a lot of the Tennessee game at New England back in 2009. The Titans were pounded 59-0 by the Patriots to fall to 0-6 and Tennessee came back the following week to win at home over Jacksonville by 17 points. Obviously this game cannot predict any future outcomes but it gives an example of what players are capable of doing in this league after getting shown up, and badly for that matter. Egos go a long way in this game and the Cardinals do no want theirs bruised again.

As far as the matchup itself goes, the Lions played one of their best defensive games of the season but we can thank the weather partly for that. This is a solid defense that is ranked 13th in the NFL in total defense but they still allow a ton of points as they are 26th in scoring. Arizona has a great opportunity to bust out on offense, something that has not happened in a while. The Detroit offense is potent as we all know but Arizona is a respectable 12th in total defense and after last week, that unit will be ready to play.

The offense for Arizona is in a great spot as it is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Lions are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 17 ppg or less. Also we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (324) Arizona Cardinals

Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans come into this game riding three-game losing streaks so clearly there is no momentum on either side. While the Buccaneers have lost their three games by a combined 11 points and the Saints have lost their three games by a combined 45 points, it is the latter which has actually been playing better. New Orleans outgained both the Falcons and Giants and are +53.7 ypg in those contests while Tampa Bay was outgained in all three and by an average of 59.3 ypg.

Tampa Bay is still clinging on to a small hope of making the playoffs so this is obviously a must win situation. But coming off that loss against Philadelphia last week is devastating as it looked as though the Buccaneers had the game locked up. Not so much. The defense, which has actually been playing pretty well, fell apart at the worst possible time against the Eagles and now they will be facing Drew Brees who has put up a combined passer rating of 112.7, his worst two-game total since 2007.

It is hard to explain the struggles of Brees but it is not lack of effort and you can just see that he is clearly frustrated over his performances. In the last three games, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions on 43 attempts of more than 10 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But two of those games were on the road and the other was against the 49ers which have the second best total defense as well as the second best passing defense in the NFL. We will see a rebound here at home.

While many will argue it has been the defense on top of it, turnovers have been the Saints undoing the last two games as they have a 9-3 disadvantage in that category. The defense has actually been fairly good as after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of its first 10 games, New Orleans has allowed fewer than 400 yards in each of its last three games, giving up just 350.7 ypg over that stretch. That certainly is not the best average but from what it was, it is a massive improvement.

While the Saints playoff hopes are done, expect them to continue to play hard, especially at home as they know the fans deserve it. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg while the Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg. Also, the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games as favorites of less than a touchdown and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after gaining 400 or more ypg over their last three games. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints

I won with Nevada in its final game of the regular season against Boise St. and while it was an outright loss for the Wolf Pack, that should help as a motivator heading into their bowl game. This is definitely not the bowl game the Wolf Pack were hoping for but playing against a BCS Conference team should have it motivated along with the fact the 16 seniors want to go out winners. A slow end to the season will steer many away from Nevada but this is the time to jump on as line value is at its peak.

Arizona did not exactly end the regular season very strong as it lost to rival Arizona St. at home. The Wildcats won the yardage battle 522-460 but four turnovers did them in. They are not thrilled about being here as they were hoping for a Sun Bowl or a Las Vegas Bowl bid so motivation, or a lack there of, could play a big factor here. Making things tougher is that there is a quick turnaround with it being the first bowl game and it happens to come right at the end of finals week.

Both teams come in with very potent offenses and defenses that have struggled. Nevada is 11th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and it is a very balanced attack. The Wolf Pack were one of the top rushing teams in the nation as they averaged 262 ypg which is seventh in the nation. The passing game was fairly efficient as well as Nevada is 30th in passing efficiency while quarterback Cody Fajardo is 11th in the nation in total offense so there should be no stopping this unit.

Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country as it is 116th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense and it has been equally bad at stopping the run and the pass so facing a balanced attack is a nightmare scenario. The Wildcats do bring in a stronger offense but Nevada possesses a stronger defense as well so while the offenses have the advantages on both sides, the Wolf Pack have the edge overall as the line is in favor of the underdog when matchups like this take place.

Nevada was horrible in the role of favorite this season, going 1-8 ATS but it went a perfect 2-0 ATS as underdogs of a touchdown or more. Arizona meanwhile is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game and this is not a good price as it is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, the Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Motivation plays a key role in this one. 10* (201) Nevada Wolf Pack

The Eagles looked dead on Sunday as they trailed the Buccaneers by 11 points but rallied to pull out a much needed win which ended their eight-game losing skid. They easily could have folded then they allowed 21 unanswered points but they did not give up and played hard right to the end and that is a big part of the play here. Obviously the playoffs are out but they gained some renewed confidence and the goal now is to finish strong. Playing with no pressure means playing loose which is always an advantage.

The Bengals are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys to fall to 7-6 and now must travel on a short week. Cincinnati had a four-game winning streak prior to the loss and things are not looking very good with the remainder of the schedule as it closes with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are still in the mix for grabbing a Wild Card spot but the Sunday loss may have told us that they are not as good as was perceived when they were riding that winning streak.

The Eagles won on Sunday despite losing the turnover battle for the 10th time in 13 games this season. The good news is that they only turned it over once but it was the fifth consecutive game that Philadelphia's defense did not have a takeaway and while that is not a good thing, it is one of those streaks that will not last the rest of the season and Cincinnati has given it up 21 times on the year. The Eagles allowed just 314 total yards against Tampa Bay.

Offensively, Philadelphia got a great game out of quarterback Nick Foles which was a huge step for the rookie and one that he can build on. He threw for two touchdowns in the final four minutes to overcome that 11-point deficit, finishing with an Eagles' rookie-record 32 completions and 381 yards. The Bengals defense has gone four straight games without allowing 300 yards but playing at that high level is tough to do and playing on the short week makes it even more difficult.

The Eagles played on Sunday like we thought they were going to play all season as there was more energy, more hustle and more heart in this game than they've shown for weeks. Now they will be bringing that same energy home where they have not won since September 30th against the Giants. The Eagles go from an eight-point road underdog to a three-point home underdog so they are definitely on the value side with this number. Expect to see another very inspired effort on Thursday. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles

This is arguably the best Monday night matchup of the season thus far and this one will go a long way in playoff seedings. Both Houston and New England clinched playoff berths last week, the Patriots clinching the division and the Texans now one win away from the division title. This game obviously means a lot to both sides so motivation will not be an issue but the situation is much better for New England as it heads home after a road win while Houston is playing its third straight road contest.

The Patriots are riding a six-game winning streak and while the opposition has been average, they will be out to prove something here. Their last real quality win came here against Denver and that was the last time the Broncos lost so that definitely says something. The three losses for New England this year all could have been wins as they lost those games by a combined four points. All three losses came down to the final minute with two of those decided on last second field goals.

The Texans share the best record in the NFL with Atlanta as a loss to Green Bay is the only blemish on the card. That game can definitely tell us something as Houston struggled against a potent offense in the Packers and it also struggled against the Lions on Thanksgiving as it snuck out a win there. The Texans will be facing another strong offense here as the Patriot lead the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense and the banged up defense could be in for another long night.

While the Patriots offense is the best, the defense is far from it as it is ranked 26th in total defense. But the defense thrives on turnovers as its 33 takeaways easily lead the AFC and their +24 turnover difference is by far the best in football. That has limited opposing teams from scoring much as New England is a respectable 14th in scoring defense. Houston's offense is no joke but gaining 1,154 yards and 77 points in consecutive games against Jacksonville and Detroit has skewed the numbers.

Coming off a divisional win is no letdown for New England as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a divisional win and the Patriots have covered four straight Monday night games. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. The Patriots prove they are still the team to beat in the AFC. 10* (134) New England Patriots