Sports Picks & Predictions

I won with Washington on Monday night and that was clearly a huge win for the Redskins as they pulled to within just one game of the Giants in the NFC East. They remain at home which may seem like a good spot but I think Washington has itself in a tough one based on the opposition. The Redskins are coming off three straight victories and if that doesn't spell letdown, nothing does. Yes, there is a lot on the line so a letdown may be the wrong term but this will be tough to come back from.

Baltimore is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh and while it still has a two-game lead in the AFC North, with Pittsburgh back home against San Diego, a loss here from the Ravens will most likely mean that lead is trimmed to just one game. The Ravens have won three straight games on the road and they know they need to keep the pedal down with Ben Roethlisberger on his way back very shortly. With a game at home against Denver coming up, Baltimore knows it needs this one.

The Ravens had won four straight games prior to the Steelers loss and they have followed up each of their previous two losses with wins. The offense has taken a step back the last three games as they have averaged just 16.3 ppg and have been held to fewer than 300 yards in two of those games. Now Baltimore gets to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Redskins are ranked 29th in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense. A great effort last week against New York will not be duplicated again.

The Washington offense has been solid all season with RGIII becoming a legitimate star in this league. Baltimore's defense has not played that well this season but it has played a lot better since its bye week. After allowing 23 ppg and 400 ypg through its first seven games, the Ravens have allowed just 16.2 ppg and 333.4 ypg over their last five games which is a huge recovery. There is a lot of pride with this unit just because they are getting older doesn't mean that they cannot still compete.

Terrell Suggs is a gametime decision this week. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off an upset loss as a home favorite and they fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. A great spot catching Washington in both a physical and emotional letdown. 10* (105) Baltimore Ravens

Carolina was in a very tough spot last week having to go to Kansas City and play a game a day after tragedy hit the Chiefs. We won with Kansas City in that game and the emotions from it carries that team through. The opposite was the case for the Panthers as they were put into a situation no team wants to be in. They were coming off a big Monday night road win at Philadelphia on top of it so the short week didn't help matters. Now back home, look for a full out effort.

The Falcons got away with another one. This team is 11-1 and a lot of that has been done with smoke and mirrors and fortunate bounces. They were outgained by 153 yards against the Saints last Thursday but managed to pick off Drew Brees five times. Those throws were bad ones too so the credit cannot solely go to the defense as Brees was clearly not himself. There is still a lot at stake for Atlanta as far as playoff seeding and such but coming off a division clinching win is tough to recover from.

Carolina was able to outgain Kansas City last week but it was unable to match the Chiefs energy. The Panthers have now outgained four of their last seven opponents but only have two wins to show for it. Closing has been a big issue as in their last seven losses, six have been by six points or less including one in overtime. Carolina has been painfully close at home to being a lot better but a 1-5 record is what has put them down to where they are right now but they continue to play hard.

The defense will have to play a big game in order to slow down the Falcons offense but this defense has played a lot better. The Panthers are ranked 14th in total defense and after allowing more than 400 yards three times in their first four games, they have allowed 400 yards only once since. After defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Thursday, Falcons coach Mike Smith gave the team four days off and the gameplanning for this game did not begin until Wednesday.

The first meeting was a close one on Atlanta as the Panthers lost on a 40-yard field goal with five second left and they falls into two successful revenge spots. We play on teams that are revenging a loss by three points or less, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Also we play on home teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) Carolina Panthers

You have to give Kansas City a lot of credit for not only playing last week after the Jovan Belcher tragedy, but going out and winning. A lot of times in sports, emotions take over and that is what happened last week with the Chiefs as they went out and snapped their eight-game losing streak. At the same time though, those emotions can do a complete reversal and I expect that to happen this week. This team is emotionally spent and playing this week is going to be a lot tougher than last week.

After starting the season 0-5, the Browns have been playing a lot better as they are 4-3 over their last seven games. Three of those victories came against the Bengals, Chargers and Steelers so it isn't like that have been beating up on the NFL doormats although Kansas City can certainly fit into that category. Cleveland has won two straight games and it has been extremely competitive at home all season with a 3-3 record while getting outscored by just 0.6 ppg.

The Chiefs are coming off two straight draining games as the week prior, they lost a close game at home against rival Denver so now hitting the road after three straight home games, a loss against Cincinnati started the homestand, is a challenge. To their credit, they have put up some good games on the road including at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans but they have also put up some real duds with three of the four losses coming by 18, 28 and 18 points.

Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 26th against the run, giving up 129.3 ypg. They rank ninth against the pass, giving up 219.9 ypg, but it is not necessarily because of stellar work. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 2,774 yards at a 60.3 completion rate, averaged 8.3 yards per pass and posted a 103.0 rating. They have thrown for 25 touchdowns and been intercepted seven times. The Browns should have no problem moving the ball as the offensive is coming off its best game of the season with 475 yards.

This is a big number for the Browns to be laying but I feel it is completely justified based on the situation. They have been an underdog in every one of their previous home games but considering the last four have been against quality opponents (yes at the time San Diego was quality), that just makes sense. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns

I was originally staying away from this game based on the fact the Jets were likely going to start Greg McElroy as I honestly thought we had seen the last of Mark Sanchez in a Jets uniform. Well, he was just recently named the starter once again and I think we are going to see one of his best efforts of the season. People are so down on him right now which makes him in a perfect take situation. "It was probably the worst and best experience of my life," Sanchez said Wednesday, reflecting on last Sunday's benching.

Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Buffalo on a very rainy day so it is hard to take a lot out of that game because of the bad weather. What can be taken out of it though is the fact that the Jaguars continue to get stung by the injury bug. Starting running back Rashad Jennings and starting wide receiver Cecil Shorts both suffered concussions last week and both are likely out this week which depletes and already poor offense. Jacksonville is ranked 31st in total offense and 30th in scoring offense.

It may be tough for some to hear me defend Sanchez but I'm going to. The benching was a very good thing as it should serve as a huge motivator for him. In addition, he has played against some very tough defenses as in his 12 starts, he has faced defenses ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 12th in half of those. The Jets have averaged 11.3 ppg in those games. In the other games, New York has put up 26.7 ppg and considering the Jaguars are ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, the Jets offense should roll.

The Jets are having a rough season no doubt but to their credit, they have played the league's 2nd toughest schedule. They have faced five teams in the top ten and seven teams in the top 16, going 0-5 and 1-6 respectively so they are 4-1 against the bottom half of the NFL. Jacksonville certainly falls into that category. Granted, elite teams are capable of defeating other elite teams in the NFL but no one here is calling the Jets elite. But they are good enough the steamroll one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Playing road favorites in the NFL is not going to be a winning proposition over the long haul but some spots it is deemed that way when the situation arises and this is one of those. Additionally, the Jets fall into a solid situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Don't be surprised to see one of the best efforts of the season from New York this week. 10* (113) New York Jets

Could this finally be the year? Army has lost the last 10 meetings to Navy which is easily the longest streak in the history of this series that dates back to 1890. It has been another disappointing year for the Black Knights who missed out on a bowl game last season and can now finish no better than their 3-9 record from a season ago. They are coming off a 31-point pounding against Temple but they were only outgained by 70 yards as turnovers did them in. The public will remember the score and nothing else.

Navy is going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl to be played December 29th against Arizona St. which is its ninth bowl in 10 years. After starting 1-3 including getting shutout at home against San Jose St., the Midshipmen closed strong which was sparked by an overtime win at Air Force that started a 6-1 run over the final seven games. They are outgaining opponents by less than 10 ypg and they have been outgained in half of their last eight games.

As bad as the record seems for Army, it hasn't played all that bad. It is getting outgained by just 1.3 ypg and as mentioned before, turnovers have played a big role in the losses. The Black Knights are 94th in the nation in turnover margin but they should not be bad off here as Navy is only 72nd in the same category. Army own the nation's best rushing offense, averaging 369.8 ypg on 5.5 ypc so while they pile on the yards, they do it effectively with a strong yard per carry average.

The winner of the Army-Navy game will take home the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, which is presented annually to the winner of the football competition among the three major Service Academies and is named in honor of the President of the United States. This year's game marks the first time since 2005 that the trophy was on the line in the Army-Navy game and just the sixth time since the trophy's inception in 1972. While this game is big every year, it is bigger now so this is Army's bowl game.

Navy is just 4-7 ATS this season including going 0-4 ATS in its four games as a favorite against FBS teams. Army falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost seven or eight out of their last eight games going up against an opponent after having won four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 31-12 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Black Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (104) Army Black Knights

Denver has won seven straight games and is definitely poised to give the AFC leaders a run come playoff time. With won come popularity, with popularity comes betting attraction and with betting attraction comes inflated lines. Yes, Denver is playing great and Oakland is far from it but this line is extremely overpriced. Getting anything over a touchdown at home is huge in this league and that is proven by home underdogs of 8 points or more are 27-3 ATS over the last four years.

The Raiders are coming off another tough loss as they lost by three points against the Browns to make it five straight defeats going back to the start of November. They have not been playing that badly as they have outgained five of their last eight opponents and on the season they are getting outgained by only 25.2 ppg which is very respectable for a team with their record. The issue has been miscues as Oakland has lost the turnover battle in four of its last five games.

Denver won the first meeting in this series and it wasn't even close as the Broncos won by 31 points while outgaining Oakland by 266 total yards. Despite losing the next game against the Patriots, that first meeting against Oakland seemed to have set a spark and got them rolling after a 1-2 start to the season. This is a divisional rivalry and even though one team is rolling and the other is reeling, records can be tossed out the door and I expect the Raiders to give all they have to get their revenge on national television.

Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, the former Broncos defensive coordinator, left the team immediately after the Cleveland game to be with his father who eventually passed away on Tuesday. If there ever is a time for a team to come together and win one for their coach, this is the time. With the short week, the position coaches had begun some of the scouting of the Broncos last week to allow the coordinators to put together the game plan on Sunday night and Monday. Therefore there is not a big disadvantage with Allen being out.

Oakland has numerous situations on its side in this game and one of the best is to play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75%) since 1983. Additionally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games against teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg while the Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 divisional games. 10* (102) Oakland Raiders

The Giants won the first meeting in a wild game as they scored a 77-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 remaining after Washington had just taken the lead less that 20 seconds prior. Obviously the Redskins want revenge from that game but more important they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Sitting at 5-6, they are a game out of the NFC's second Wild Card spot heading into Sunday and just as important, a victory puts them just a game behind New York in the NFC East.

The Giants looked great last week coming out of the bye and people will be riding them based on past success this time of year. Also, they have been great on the road the last couple years but the line is totally overinflated here. New York was favored by six and a half points in that first meeting at home and not a lot has changed since then so if anything, this game should be a pickem. Going against the masses here as this line has been driven up to provide a great home underdog opportunity.

New York has succeeded this season with a lot due to turnovers. The Giants have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games and that has been a huge part to why they are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and ninth in the NFL in scoring defense. They are 10th in total offense and just 23rd in total defense and that is where the Redskins can take advantage. Holding Green Bay to 317 yards and 10 points was a huge effort but repeating that will be a challenge here.

The Redskins offense has thrived with RGIII behind center as they are sixth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense. Those two rankings are so close and so good because they do not turn the ball over. Washington has given it up only once over its last four games and for the season its 10 giveaways are the fewest in the NFC and third in the NFL. The defense was riddled with injuries early in the season but they have been playing a lot but recently.

Washington can take advantage it is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing six or more yppl. Additionally, the Redskins fall into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Also, the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* (368) Washington Redskins

Houston is coming off two straight overtime wins which can be looked at in two different ways. It can bring a huge amount of confidence or it can produce a pretty big letdown. In the Texans case, I feel it is the latter. They were winning early in the season and winning these tight games is more of a sigh of relief than anything and it shows that they are not playing at a high level despite being 10-1. That record plays into the lines going forward and we are again catching a good number playing against Houston.

When Jake Locker came back into the lineup, the Titans looked like a different team two games ago even though he showed some rust. He had a much more productive game against Jacksonville last week but two interceptions hurt him. Still, Tennessee scored 56 points the last two games while outgaining both opponents which was the first time it has outgained consecutive opponents this season. Better yet, both of those games were on the road so the Titans should have some extra confidence going into this revenge game.

Tennessee was thumped in Houston in the first meeting by 24 points even though it outgained the Texans by 28 yards. The difference there was turnovers as the Titans lost the turnover battle 3-0 and two of those were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That was the game that Locker was hurt in and he missed most of that game and five others because of a separated non-throwing shoulder. The offenses needed a boost and has gotten it and now playing a very banged up Texans defense.

If coming off two consecutive overtime wins wasn't bad enough, Houston has a game at New England next Monday night so this is a very tough sandwich situation. Even throw in the previous week's hard fought win at Chicago and that adds up to a brutal three-game stretch. Head coach Gary Kubiak summed it up perfectly. "It's been very taxing on the team. Winning was so important, of course. To come out of there (Detroit) with a win because of where we're at and some of the issues we have, it was exceptional."

As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Tennessee and it falls into a terrific revenge situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Upset alert right here. 10* (356) Tennessee Titans

The Lions have dropped two brutal home games in a row to fall to 4-7 and are now clinging by a thread in hopes of the playoffs. There is a three-way tie for the second Wild Card spot at 6-5 so it is going to take a lot of winning and a lot of help to get it done. This is now a must win game or the season will officially be done for Detroit as three of its final four games are against the Packers, Falcons and Bears. The extra time off from Thanksgiving to go along with no travel should help.

Indianapolis won against last week to improve to 7-4 and it currently sits in the first Wild Card spot in the AFC. That win was at home though where the Colts are 5-1 compared to just 2-3 on the road with the victories coming at Jacksonville and Tennessee and it is no coincidence that those were divisional wins. Those wins happened to follow home wins but the last time the Colts won at home and a divisional game was not on deck resulted in a 35-9 loss at New York to the Jets.

This is the third straight home game for the Lions and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand.

The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense but they have killed themselves with turnovers which seems to be a common theme with all of these losing teams. The good news here though is that Indianapolis does not know how to take the ball away as it dead last in the NFL with just seven takeaways. The Lions should no problem moving the ball against the 20th ranked defense and scoring against the 22nd ranked defense in passing touchdowns allowed.

Detroit's defense has struggled over the last three games but it should clamp down here. Andrew Luck is a solid rookie quarterback but the Colts also turn the ball over on offense which has cut into their scoring as they are 21st in scoring offense. We play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining opponents by 40 to 100 going up against teams with a yardage margin between +/- 40 ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (77 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (350) Detroit Lions

While many saw a closer game or a high scoring game, not many saw the Packers offense get completely shutdown by the Giants last week. Green Bay managed only 10 points which was not only a season low but it was the fewest amount of points scored in its last 32 games, a stretch that goes back to the final game of the 2010 regular season. The Packers scored fewer than 10 points twice prior that season and followed that up with high scoring games of 52 and 58 points next time out.

The Vikings are also coming off a game where they scored only 10 points which is also a season low for them. Minnesota was coming off three straight games that went over the total and while the offense played its part, it was the defense that really played poorly as the Vikings allowed an average of 30 ppg. Now they catch the Packers off their worst output of the season as well as putting up just 314 and 317 total yards the last two games which will spell some serious trouble for the Vikings defense.

Scoring on the road has been a challenge for Minnesota as it is averaging 19.2 ppg but it has put up at least 20 points in four of its five of its road games and that number should be more than enough to push this one over. The Vikings passing offense has had its problems over the last few games as Christian Ponder has been playing poorly but Green Bay has the 22nd ranked passing defense in the NFL and while Green Bay's rushing defense is better, Minnesota counters that with Adrian Peterson.

On top of that, the Packers will be without defensive end C.J. Wilson, a cornerstone of their run defense. And the news is still bad at the other two levels as linebacker Clay Matthews is likely out one more week while the secondary will be shorthanded again this week with Charles Woodson and Sam Shields remaining out. That could mean some needed balance in the Vikings offense and a chance to have a much better game than the seven points they scored here last November.

Historical scenarios are on our side here also as Green Bay is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher and 6-0 to the over in its last six home games in the second half of the season. Also, the Packers are 4-0 to the over in their last four games following an ATS loss while the Vikings are 4-0 to the over in their last four games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. 10* Over (341) Minnesota Vikings/(342) Green Bay Packers

Wisconsin no doubt backed into the Big Ten Championship but it is not going to apologize for it. The Badgers finished the season at 4-4 in the conference and 7-5 overall and they definitely had some of the worst luck in the country. They lost three games in overtime and the other two losses were by three points each so a few bounces their way and the record looks a lot better. Many will argue that Wisconsin does not belong here but this is still a very solid team capable of a second straight Big Ten Championship.

I do like the way how Nebraska finished the season with six straight wins and was able to hold off Michigan for the Big Ten Legends Division title. I don't like how it closed in its last game though as the Huskers struggled against a pretty bad Iowa team that was playing for nothing as it was well out of the bowl picture. Momentum can be a big thing but when it comes to a game like this, momentum can become secondary because of what is at stake.

Nebraska brings in a powerful offense that is ranked 26th overall and 29th in scoring but it was held to a season low 263 total yards last week against the Hawkeyes. The Huskers were fortunate that the Iowa offense was putrid this year. After going over 500 total yards in four of their first six games, the Huskers have not done so in any of their last five games. Nebraska did torch Wisconsin for 440 yards in the first meeting but that was an aberration as the Badgers are 11th in total defense and have allowed just 278.7 ypg since.

The Badgers will be looking for some payback after losing in Lincoln earlier this season, blowing a 17-point second half lead and they are more than capable of doing it. Let's not forget what happened last season when Wisconsin made history by overcoming an earlier heartbreaking loss to Michigan St. with a 42-39 victory over the Spartans in the first Big Ten title game. The experience of going through that experience last year should be an advantage for the Badgers.

This is one of those games where Wisconsin will go back at the film of the first meeting and make adjustments while Nebraska may not tweak as much based on the success it had. The Badgers have been great in these spots as they are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after two straight losses and they have not lost three straight games since 2008. Also, Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg so it knows how to scheme on defense. 10* (338) Wisconsin Badgers

Oklahoma is coming off a big win last week against Oklahoma St. in overtime. The Sooners did not lead until the game was done and while a big victory like that against a rival can cause a letdown, I don't see it happening here. There is still a lot at stake for Oklahoma as it can win the Big XII with a win here and a Kansas St. loss Saturday night but even if the Wildcats do win, the Sooners will likely be going to a BCS bowl game with a victory barring the crazy Kent St. scenario.

We won with TCU on Thanksgiving as it went into Texas and defeated the Longhorns so that will be a difficult game to bounceback from. The Horned Frogs improved to 7-4 with the victory and also finished the season a very solid 5-1 on the road. They are just 2-3 at home however with one of those wins coming against Grambling of the FCS and the other against 4-8 Virginia. TCU lost all three games against Big XII opposition and all three of those teams are bowl eligible.

I mentioned the Kent St. scenario. The Golden Flashes are 17th in the BCS standings, one spot away from securing an automatic BCS bid and perhaps taking away the last at-large opportunity out there. "I think that we have a chance. That's the only thing I've been aware of," receiver Justin Brown said. "I don't know anything about all of that other stuff. You guys probably know way more than me. I just know we've got to play TCU." Oklahoma just needs to go out and take care of its own business and let it unfold..

While the Horned Frogs defense has again been very solid, the Sooners offense is peaking once again. After getting stifled by Notre Dame, the Sooners have put up 593 yards in three of four games, averaging a whopping 583.3 ypg while averaging 44.5 ppg. Overall the offense is ranked ninth overall and seventh in scoring defense, both of which are third in the Big XII. The Horned Frogs have struggled against some of the stronger offenses in the conference and we will see that here again.

This is one of those situation where if Oklahoma gets up early, TCU will have difficulties playing catch up. This is even true with the Sooners recent struggles on defense. They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 18-9 ATS in 27 games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread while the Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (313) Oklahoma Sooners

Stanford defeated UCLA in the regular season finale to set up this rematch for the Pac 12 Championship. It is a rarity for teams to play twice in the same season let alone twice in two weeks so there is obviously no edge on either side as far as familiarity goes. We do get an edge in the result from last week that no one is going to soon forget which makes Stanford a typical public side this week as a 17-point win on the road will have bettors lining up behind them expecting a bigger win at home. If it were only that easy.

The game came down to 13 seconds in the third quarter when everything fell Stanford's way. It began with an interception for Stanford than started a drive at the Bruins' 42-yard line. Cardinal running back Stepfan Taylor went 40 yards to set up his 1-yard touchdown run two plays later. Then Stanford recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and went 11 yards for another score. Those two turnovers were the big difference as overall, Stanford only outgained UCLA by 47 total yards.

Taking nothing away from Stanford winning but UCLA did not play its typical game. The Cardinal have a great defense no doubt but the Bruins hurt themselves in many ways and were taken out of their gameplan. The Bruins were limited to 261 yards passing and one touchdown, while giving up seven sacks and an interception and it didn't help matters by a number of dropped passes. The offensive line is where UCLA needs to make adjustments as well as quarterback Brett Hundley getting rid of the ball quicker.

Plain and simple, it is difficult beating the same team twice in one season. This has nothing to do with familiarity as mentioned before but it has to do with changing gameplans. The Bruins will be doing things differently to make things work while Stanford likely will not be changing much because of the adage 'if it isn't broke, don't fix it'. UCLA will be bringing different looks and new wrinkles and that is where a big advantage can occur if done properly and Jim Mora is good enough to do that.

I expect the Bruins to be able to rush the ball better even though Stanford has a very strong rushing defense. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game while going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit home loss. The Bruins are still a very solid 9-3 on the year and they have not been underdogs of this many points all season as the most points they have received is six points and that resulted in an outright win at Arizona St. 10* (307) UCLA Bruins

Even though the Saints lost on Sunday against San Francisco, their playoff chances remained pretty much unchanged. The Falcons defeated the Buccaneers, the Dolphins defeated the Seahawks, and the Bears knocked off the Vikings which leaves New Orleans still just a game back in the Wild Card race but they hold the tiebreaker over all three. A win here is huge as it notches another conference win and those three other teams are all playing games on the road against playoff caliber teams as well.

The Falcons are coming off another close win as they defeated Tampa Bay on the road in a big divisional game, snapping the Buccaneers four-game winning streak. Atlanta has now played three straight games where it easily could have lost but was able to pull out the victory in two of those. The Falcons did lose the first of the three games at New Orleans and while they will be out for revenge here, it is not going to easy at all as the Saints are still playing at a high level.

Despite hanging with the 49ers for the first half this past Sunday, long downfield drives by San Francisco and two interceptions from Drew Brees on consecutive passes were enough to seal the deal for New Orleans. The Saints were held to just 290 yards of total offense which comes as no surprise as the 49ers defense is ranked second overall and first in scoring. The Falcons are not nearly as good as they are 15th in total defense in the NFL and allowed 440 total yards in the first meeting.

Obviously the Saints defense has some issues as they are ranked dead last in the league in total defense. They thing is though they have gotten better as the season has gone on as they are becoming more familiar with Steve Spagnuolo's defense as it is the first season with it. After allowing 459 or more yards in five of the first seven games, New Orleans has not yielded that amount in any of its last four games, giving up an average of 420 ypg including a season low 375 yards against the 49ers.

The Saints have been able to take advantage of bad teams in the past as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in the second half of the season against teams allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse and 8-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are +/- 0.4 in yppl margin against teams that are -0.4 to -1 in yppl margin. This situation is 78-39 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints

Louisville has picked a bad time to fall apart as it has lost two straight games which has now put it behind the eight-ball to make it to a BCS bowl game. The Cardinals lost at Syracuse three weeks ago which did not come as a huge surprise as the Orange are playing some of the best football in the Big East Conference. Losing at home this past week to Connecticut in overtime was a surprise though. They still outgained the Huskies by 160 total yards but were unable to get anything going early in the game.

Rutgers is also coming off a loss as it played its worst game of the season in a loss at Pittsburgh by 21 points. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by 158 total yards which was the third time in their last six games that they have gotten outyarded by the opposition. The offense remains a huge issue as Rutgers is ranked 99th in total offense and 93rd in scoring offense in the country and it will not be able to keep up with Louisville should the Cardinals get ahead early.

The Rutgers defense has been the strength all season as it is ranked 14th overall and fourth in scoring, both of which are near or at the top of the Big East Conference. Those are impressive rankings indeed however the Scarlet Knights have struggled against good offenses, namely Arkansas and Syracuse where they allowed 492 and 418 yards respectively. Also, this will be the second highest scoring offense they have seen all season with Kent St. being the highest and they allowed 35 points to the Golden Flashes.

The Cardinals were quick to minimize the meaning of their upset loss to Connecticut. They admitted to disappointment but stopped well short of dejection. Having lost two straight games and almost certainly their place in the national polls, they found solace in the lasting insignificance of Saturday's score. Because a win here and they are heading to the Orange Bowl as they will be the highest ranked team in the Big East. Louisville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record.

The Cardinals have also been solid when coming off a defeat as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a loss as a home favorite. Louisville falls into a great situation also as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (303) Louisville Cardinals

Carolina has gone over in two straight games but both of those games were at home against a couple teams whose offenses have been piling up the points. The same cannot be said for the Eagles which will again be without Michael Vick and will also be missing running back LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia managed only six points last week against the Redskins with Nick Foles under center and while the Panthers defense is far from a stout unit, expect the Eagles to continue their struggles on offense.

This is a contrarian under call against the Eagles defense which has been lit up for 31, 38, 28 and 30 points over their last four games. However this is the type of game that a defense that has been gashed tends to step up in big situations and a Monday night game can certainly qualify. The Panthers offense has had their struggles this season as they are 22nd overall and 27th in scoring. They have been held to 331 yards or less in five of their last six games and seven times overall on the season.

On the other side, the Panthers want to step up as well. Defensive end Charles Johnson said the Panthers want to prove a point Monday regardless of who plays quarterback for the Eagles. "Hopefully, we can show up and show out. When the lights come on, you should play your butt off. The whole world's watching, so just leave it all out on the line," Johnson said. "We definitely have to show the world what Carolina Panthers defense is about. Hopefully, we can do that and come out with a W."

While the Eagles have two big names out on offense, they have been bad to begin with. They are 14th overall in total offense but 31st in scoring offense and a lot of that has been because of turnovers. Philadelphia has scored more than 23 points only once this year and has tallied 17 points or less in six of ten games on the season. History shows the struggles will go on as the Eagles are 12-3 to the under in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less.

Additionally, the Eagles are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games while Carolina is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games coming off a home loss against a division rival. Also, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 24-7 to the under (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (245) Carolina Panthers/(246) Philadelphia Eagles

The Chargers got us a win last week but chalked up another loss for them as they fell to 4-6 and the playoffs are looking dimmer and dimmer. They trail the Wild Card leaders by two games so there is still hope but they cannot afford to lose here, especially on their home field. Typically San Diego would be favored here but after losing five of six games, we are getting a very good number with the Chargers. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and they know what is at stake here.

The Ravens won a tough game at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and not only does that setup a letdown spot here, they have a home game against Pittsburgh on deck. Traveling across country only adds to the sandwich spot for a Baltimore team that is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home. The Ravens are 3-2 on the highway and prior to the win over the Steelers, the other two wins came at Cleveland and Kansas City which are a combined 3-17. Baltimore has been outgained in six straight games.

The Chargers have a great situation on their side as we play against favorites with defense that is allowing 130 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-29 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (238) San Diego Chargers

We snuck out a win against Denver last week with the Chargers and we will go against the Broncos again here as they are completely overvalued. Yes, they are playing some of the best football in the NFL and because it is no secret, the lines are showing it. Denver has won five straight games by scoring more than 30 points each time and even the best NFL teams ever cannot keep that up. The Broncos have won their last three road games and this is the spot for that to come to an end.

Kansas City is playing just the opposite as it has dropped seven straight games and has yet to win at home this season, going 0-5. The Chiefs are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Bengals but we can give them a pardon as they were coming off a short week following a very tough loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Now playing a divisional game, they step up once again. Kansas City falls into a spectacular situation as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after seven or more consecutive losses going up against teams after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (228) Kansas City Chiefs

The Falcons got off to an 8-0 start before dropping their first game in New Orleans two weeks ago. It took them a while to show up last week against Arizona but eventually they did and snuck out with a four-point win. Those two effort will have them more than ready for what has turned into a bog divisional game. Atlanta actually outgained the Cardinals last week and the Saints prior to that and has now won the yardage battle in seven of it last eight games. Prior to New Orleans, the four road wins were by an average of 14.8 ppg.

Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the league right now as it has won and covered four straight games. That is keeping this line very reasonable as a Falcons win likely means a cover as well. The Buccaneers got away with a game last week in Carolina as it rallied from an 11-point deficit to eventually take the game in overtime. It is hard to call this a letdown situation facing the division leaders but it surely puts Tampa Bay in a tough spot and even more so by trying to keep its winning streak alive.

The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won four out of their last five games, in November games. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (233) Atlanta Falcons

What a tough loss last week for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were down by 24 points late in the third quarter before returning a kickoff for a touchdown and eventually tying the game with no time left on a field goal which sent the game into overtime. They were stopped in the extra session and while that was a tough loss to take, expect a big rebound here as they try and lock down second place in the WAC. Louisiana has had no trouble winning on the road, going a perfect 5-0 this season.

We won with San Jose St. last week as it defeated BYU outright as a three-point home underdog. Now the Spartans go form an underdog to a favorite in a span of one week against a team that is better than the one they just defeated. It was a big win for San Jose St. and it apparently opened the eyes of the books but this is way too much of a jump. The Spartans are 4-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against a very similar team in Utah St. by 22 points and now face a team ready for some payback. 10* (195) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This time of year, emotion plays a big part in these games as teams that are completely out of the bowl picture just want the season to be over. This will not be the case for UTEP. The Miners are 3-8 and have no shot at a bowl game but this week it was announced that head coach Mike Price will be retiring after this game and UTEP will do everything it takes to send him out a winner. Despite the poor record, the Miners have hung around in a lot of games against vastly superior competition.

Rice does in fact have something to play for as after its win over SMU last week, the Owls are one win away from bowl eligibility. I have backed Rice twice in its last three victories but both of those games were at home. The Owls are 2-3 on the road this season but those wins came against Kansas and Tulane which combined are just 3-19. it has been a great run to go from 1-5 to this position for the Owls but this will be a very tough task as UTEP has an offense that can keep up and a defense that has excelled at home. 10* (204) UTEP Miners

To say it has been a disappointing season at Tennessee would be an understatement. The Volunteers are 0-7 in the SEC and will be without recently fired head coach Derek Dooley for the season finale. The fact that he declined to coach the final game says a lot about him and what he thinks about the program. Jim Chaney will take over this week and you can guarantee the players will be giving 110% effort for him to show what a lame duck coach Dooley really was. Add in the revenge factor as well.

Kentucky has had a much worse season as it had dropped eight straight games before winning last week against Samford from the FCS. The Wildcats are 2-9 overall including going 0-4 on the road, losing all of those games by 18 points or more and by an average of 30.3 ppg. This will be the final game for head coach Joker Phillips who is also gone after the season but considering they carried him off the field after the Samford win, that was the one they were after and this one, even though it is a rival, spells letdown. 10* (160) Tennessee Volunteers

With both Arizona St. and Arizona already bowl eligible, this one comes down to the rivalry itself and we give the edge to the Wildcats. They are laying a small number at home and with the road team winning the last three meetings, the value is placed on the short home field price. Arizona is 7-4 and after suffering through a three-game losing streak, it has won four of its last five games including solid home wins against USC and Washington. The only home loss this season was a three-point setback to then undefeated Oregon St.

The Sun Devils were off to a 5-1 start to the season and then the wheels came off with four straight losses, three of which came by double-digits before they bounced back with a win over lowly Washington St. last week. Arizona St. is just 2-3 on the road with the wins coming against 3-9 California and 1-10 Colorado. They have put up some very impressive numbers as they have outgained the opposition by 300 or more yards four times but those came against Northern Arizona of the FCS and three other teams a combined 7-26.

The Wildcats fall into a great situation as well as we play on home teams that are averaging between 190 and 230 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 ypg rushing, after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. The home team finally break the series skid with a comfortable home victory. 10* (138) Arizona Wildcats

The Patriot offense was on display again this past week as they hung 59 points on the Colts in a 35-point win. However the score is deceiving as two touchdowns came on interception returns and another on a punt return so it wasn't all offense that got it done. New England has gone over the total in eight straight games and this signals the time to go against that. This total has dropped from its opening but with it being New England in primetime, expect this one to rise once we get closer to kickoff.

The Jets halted their three-game losing streak as they won by 14 points over the Rams despite outgaining St. Louis by just eight total yards. The game went over the total and now the Jets are hit with their biggest O/U of the season so we are seeing value the other way. The defense has allowed fewer than 300 yards in three of its last five games so they are more than capable of slowing the Patriots offense down. New York is still a dismal 30th in the NFL in total offense. Hold off until later in the week to hit this under as it should rise again as mentioned. 10* Under (107) New England Patriots/(108) New York Jets

I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to the Longhorns' four-game winning streak. Ever since they were thumped by Oklahoma, Texas has won every game but only one of those was done in impressive fashion and that was against Iowa St. in the last game. Prior to that, the Longhorns were outgained in five of their previous six games and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by just 28.3 ypg. Four of the last five wins have come by an average of six ppg with none of those coming by more than nine points.

TCU has had a rough stretch of losses in three of its last four games but the numbers have not been that bad. The Horned Frogs won the yardage battle in two of those losses and they have won the stats in eight of 10 games. TCU is outgaining opponents by an average of 85.2 ypg as the defense remains the strength, allowing just 326.3 ypg which is good for 16th in the country and first in the Big XII. It has allowed more than 400 yards only twice, to Baylor and Oklahoma St., two of the top three offenses in the nation.

TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a bye and that comes down to coaching. It is 4-1 on the road and Texas is 2-7 in its last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Also, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage of .800 or better after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) TCU Horned Frogs

Dallas got another scare from an inferior opponent as it had to rally from a 13-0 halftime deficit to defeat Cleveland in overtime. The Cowboys would have taken a huge hit with a loss but they improved to 5-5 and get to remain home for their annual Thanksgiving game. The win was far from impressive and preparing for the Redskins will be tough but I think that victory is going to spark them this week. Dallas has won six of the last seven Thanksgiving Day games with the lone loss coming when Tony Romo was out.

Washington looked very impressive against the Eagles as they snapped their three-game losing streak. However you want to look at it though, the Eagles were not ready to play and they have given up on the season so the win cannot be perceived as good as it may look. Robert Griffin III had an outstanding game with just one incompletion and five touchdowns and while the defense allowed just six points, it is still 26th overall and 25th in points allowed. The short week will be too much for Washington here. 10* (106) Dallas Cowboys

A look at the records shows that Toledo has a huge advantage in this matchup and thus the big line is justified. But when digging deeper, that is not the case at all. Akron is just 1-10 and is thankful this miserable season is coming to an end but it has played hard all year and will continue to do so in the national spotlight. Of those 10 losses, six came by fewer points than what it is getting here including four losses by eight points or fewer. The Zips are getting the most points that they have gotten in the MAC all season.

Toledo was ranked in the top 25 not too long ago but consecutive losses have put a damper on what could have been a championship season in the MAC. Instead, the Rockets limp into their regular season finale and while the thought for many is that they will come out and destroy Akron after suffering two straight loss, the fact is they may not be capable of even doing it. While all three losses have been by a touchdown, Toledo has won four games by a touchdown or less and its eight wins have been by just 9.5 ppg.

The problem for both teams has been the defense and that is what will keep the Zips hanging around here. Akron is 40th in the country in total offense which is very strong for a team that has only one win. They are 14th in passing offense which is not good for the Rockets as they are 109th in total defense including 116th in passing defense. Both teams have played similar schedules with some tough out of conference games along with a game against a team from the FCS so the numbers are pretty legit.

Toledo will likely be without running back David Fluellen who was hurt last week and that is a big blow as he is fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 132.7 ypg. He is diagnosed with a high ankle sprain and that is tough to overcome. 10* (101) Akron Zips

Last night we saw how hard the Steelers played without their starting quarterback as the rest of the team stepped up and nearly defeated the Ravens. They should have as they outgained Baltimore 311-200 as a punt return touchdown was the difference. Flash forward to tonight and we are seeing a very similar situation where the Bears will be without their starting quarterback as Jason Campbell will be starting in place of Jay Cutler so expect a similar step up in effort from the rest of the team.

Campbell is an established quarterback so it is not like Chicago is going with an unseasoned rookie or young player with no experience. Last season, the Bears went from 7-3 and looking toward the playoffs to losing five of their final six to finish 8-8 and that's why they brought in Campbell in the offseason. The Bears are in fine shape here because of their defense. They are fifth overall and second in points allowed and they are coming off a very impressive showing against the Texans as they allowed only 215 total yards.

Campbell went 10-5 over his last 15 starts with the Oakland Raiders, completing 60.3 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions and an 89.6 passer rating. Still, it will be important for the Bears to establish their running game with Matt Forte who is averaging 4.7 ypc, just 0.2 off his career best from last season, and he's on pace for 1,028 yards. Getting him going will be big as it will take a lot of pressure off Campbell and help to keep the 49ers defense off balance.

The 49ers had allowed just one opposing running back to top 100 yards in a span of 45 regular-season games before a recent stretch that began last month. In the last four games, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw, the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch and Rams' Steven Jackson have gone over 100 against the 49ers. Last week, the Rams seemed to physically win in the trenches versus the usually physical 49ers and were very creative in their play calling and the Bears obviously are just as physical.

San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense as it is ranked 13th overall and 14th in scoring and the only reason the rankings are that high is because of the game against the Bills where they scored 45 points and gained 621 yards on offense. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after having won two out of their last three games while going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. A low scoring game is in our favor with the undervalued Bears in this one.

Update: San Francisco announced this afternoon that Alex Smith will not play tonight which will further hinder the offense. The line has dropped so for those who locked it in early, good job. This is still a play however as the line is sitting at 3.5 across the board as of 2:45 ET. 10* (435) Chicago Bears

The Broncos have killed us the last two weeks as they were able to win and cover as road favorites with the public going along for the ride. The same public will not be jumping off the Denver bandwagon just yet and because of that, the books had to set a line that is substantially overinflated. It opened at -7 and has already been bet up to -7.5 and even -8 in some places. This is roughly a nine-point swing from the first meeting when Denver came back from a 24-0 deficit to win on Monday night.

The Chargers are coming off a loss, their fourth defeat in their last five games after a 3-1 start. Sitting at 4-5, this is a must win game for San Diego. If it loses, it trails the Broncos by three games in the AFC West and it is essentially four games because of the head-to-head series loss. A 3-6 record is also not in a very position for the AFC Wild Card and although the Chargers would not be eliminated, a 5-5 record and a game behind Denver in the division looks a lot better.

Similar to some other games, the Chargers goal is to slow this game down to shorten and not get into a track meet with Denver. They can do this by running the ball more frequent. The running game has been very good for the most part as they have surpassed 100 yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games. Denver's rushing defense is decent but it is not a top ten unit and defensive end Elvis Dumervil is questionable for this game and his absence would be big although we cannot count on it officially.

The Chargers do not want to get into a track meet as mentioned but they still have a very solid defense that has been playing especially well of late. San Diego is seventh in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed fewer than 300 yards in three straight games. Granted, Denver is a much stronger offense than what it has seen but the Chargers are allowing a respectable 7.1 ypa. Peyton Manning ripped them apart in the second half of the first meeting so expect the correct adjustments to be made.

San Diego falls into a very simple yet effective dynamic where we play on road underdogs coming off a road loss in the second half of the season. This situation is 100-50 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos offense is clicking as they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games and that is a great scenario to go against and Denver itself is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. Look for a close game in this big divisional battle. 10* (431) San Diego Chargers

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance in Baltimore as they lost 55-20 but that means they are filled with value this week. Oakland actually outgained Baltimore in that game so it wasn't quite as bad as the final score shows but that is what most people pay attention to. Now Oakland heads home where it is 2-2 with wins in two of its last three games and it has the ability to keep up with the Saints offense if it comes down to that which it may not even have to.

New Orleans accomplished exactly what it wanted to do and that is hand the hated Falcons their first loss of the season. The goalline stand to end the game was impressive as the defense has been a sieve all season and that stop is still being celebrated. Now the Saints hit the road out west where they are 1-3 on the season and overvalued once again. Despite winning four of its last five games, New Orleans has been outgained in all five of those games as well as seven of nine games on the season.

The Saints offense is again playing at a high level so the key for that will be for the Raiders to keep them off the field. They can accomplish this by coming with a gameplan to manufacture a strong running game. Oakland has been very inconsistent in running the ball this year as it couldn't even get to 100 yards in the last two games combined. That changes here though as New Orleans has the worst rushing defense in the NFL and it has surrendered over 200 yards rushing on four different occasions.

When they do need to pass the ball, the Raiders have been very good this year as they are fifth in the NFL is passing offense. Carson Palmer has done a great job with what he has and Oakland has a great downfield passing attack with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey as both are averaging in excess of 15 yards per catch. While the Saints cannot spot the run, they are also having trouble stopping opposing quarterbacks as they are 31st in passing defense and allow a league-worst 104.4 passer rating.

Oakland gave up a ton of points last week but teams tend to bounce back as they are 5-1 straight up after allowing 55 or more points since 2005. Two other situations are in our favor as we play against favorites coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (430) Oakland Raiders

We lost a tough one with Carolina last week as Denver scored 16 point via defense and special teams. Once that pick six took place, the whole dynamic of the game changed. The Panthers were getting three and a half points against Denver and now they are getting a point and a half against Tampa Bay? Denver is clearly two points better than the Buccaneers so we are not only getting line value here but we get to buck a team that is now a public darling after three straight wins.

The Buccaneers have been playing very good of late but the wins have not been that impressive in my book. Defeating Minnesota and Oakland on the road were good but not great and against the Chargers, Tampa Bay was outgained by 147 total yards. The Buccaneers took advantage of a blocked punt return and an interception return for touchdowns so they were the beneficiaries of those fortunate plays as opposed to Carolina which was on the other side of those last game.

Overall, the Carolina offense was not very good last week as it managed only 250 total yards which was a surprise as it had a very solid run going following a horrible performance against Seattle. The Panthers should be able to turn that around here against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are second to last in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed an average of 419.3 ypg over their last four games. The defense on the road has been even worse as they are allowing 423.5 on the highway this season.

The Carolina defense held Denver to its second lowest yardage total in its last seven games so it can take that positive away. The Broncos did score 36 points but 14 of those came way of defense and special teams. Tampa Bay's offense has really picked things up as it has been scoring a ton of points but this is a trend we are going to buck as the Buccaneers are coming off their third worst performance on offense of the season as they managed only 279 total yards against the Chargers.

Despite the records, Tampa Bay is -35.8 ypg in yardage margin while Carolina is -10.6 ypg in yardage margin which shows the team that has been better from endzone to endzone. Despite this, Carolina goes from a three-point road favorite in the first meeting to a home underdog this meeting which sets up playing on teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less with a line between +3 and -3 revenging a loss as a favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (418) Carolina Panthers

I will gladly take this many points in an NFL game no matter good or how bad the teams may be. The situation sets us up even better. Houston is coming off a hard-fought, physical game at Chicago on Monday night in which it was able to sneak out with the win. Now it heads home on a short week laying over two touchdowns in a meaningless game. On top of that, the Texans have a short week coming up as they play at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day meaning they will be doing preparation for that game this week.

The Jaguars are not a very good team as we all know but even bad teams cover in the NFL. That includes Jacksonville which is 4-5 ATS so while still not profitable, it has been far from a money burner on the season. Double-digit underdogs are not as common in the NFL as they used to be but since 1990, they are hitting at a 65 percent clip including a perfect 3-0 last week. I am well aware that Houston has covered all three as double-digit favorites this year but none of those were spots like this.

The Jaguars offense has been bad all season but it has been inconsistent which is actually okay when dealing with a negative since there have been some good performances. They were completely shut down in the first meeting at home against the Texans but there will be a different plan here as the Jaguars will go more no-huddle on offense. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert seems more at ease when playing the hurry up and it help be beneficial going against Houston which likes to use a lot of situational substituting.

Jacksonville has taken a step backwards from last season on defense but it still has shown to be very stout at times. Allowing 238 total yards in their last road game at Green Bay is a perfect case in point. As far as Houston goes, it is not going to be throwing everything it has at Jacksonville on offense because with a short week on tap, the Texans cannot afford to expend a ton of energy as a physical game with Detroit awaits. Running back Arian Foster may be sharing time in the backfield with Justin Forsett which helps our cause.

Jacksonville has a solid contrarian situation going for it as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are averaging fewer than 265 ypg going up against teams that are allowing between 265 and 295 ypg. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games revenging a same season loss. The Jaguars have covered all four road games this year as well. 10* (425) Jacksonville Jaguars

BYU comes into this game with a 6-4 record including 1-3 on the road yet it is the favorite over a team that possesses a better record. The Cougars have been consistently streaky this season as they have alternated two-game winning and losing streaks all year to get to their 6-4 record. The last two victories have been the most impressive statistically as going in and hammering Georgia Tech was impressive but destroying 1-9 Idaho at home is far from it.

San Jose St. knew the possibilities were there for a special season and it has not disappointed. The Spartans opened the season with a three-point loss at Stanford and we have seen what the Cardinal have done this season post-Luck so that was certainly a quality loss. A loss at home against Utah St. is the only other blemish on the schedule as San Jose St. has quietly gone 8-2 and is making bowl plans for the first time since 2006. The Spartans go from a 40-point home favorite to a home dog in matter of just a week.

San Jose St. is a very balanced team all around as it is ranked fourth or better in the WAC in every major statistical category that the NCAA tracks including second or better in 12 of 17 categories. The WAC is certainly not a strong conference however the rankings show that the Spartans have no weakness in any aspect of their game and that is a very rare quality. Extrapolating these stats to a national level shows San Jose St. is ranked in the top 30 in over half of those categories.

BYU has played a tougher schedule this season which shows its body of work has been solid all around as well but the Spartans can take advantage of a pretty anemic offense that has been inconsistent all season. The Cougars have had two good games in a row on offense but the defenses faced have been of poor quality. They have faced three teams that are ranked in the top 25 in total defense, which is where San Jose St. sits, and they have averaged ac mere 8.7 ppg.

The Spartans haven't exactly beaten the best teams either but confidence and momentum they have gotten is enormous. They are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. San Jose St. falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc going up against teams allowing fewer than 3.0 ypc. This situation is 43-14 ATS (75.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (382) San Jose St. Spartans

While many have been calling it a down season for Wisconsin, the Badgers are a few plays away from having a much better record at this point. They are 7-3 on the season but are now playing their best football of the year as they have won four of their last five games as the offense is starting to really hum along. The three losses have come by three points each and while it was outgained in each of those defeats, Wisconsin could be considered one of the best three-loss teams in the country right now.

Ohio St. players and coaches have to be given a lot of credit for what it has done this season. The talent is certainly there but with nothing to play for because of NCAA infractions, the fact that they have been motivated this far into the season is pretty impressive. What isn't impressive however has been the schedule as the Buckeyes have played a very light schedule with only three teams in current bowl positions. This will be the toughest test to date.

Wisconsin is known for its solid running attack on a yearly basis and after a slow start, there were concerns. The Badgers have quieted the critics over he last month as they have averaged 346.8 ypg over their last four games and that included a net 19-yard output against Michigan St. Last week against Indiana, Wisconsin rushed for a school record 564 yards. Ohio St. does have a good rushing defense as it is allowing 107.9 ypg but again, it comes down to the schedule.

While the Buckeyes spot a solid defense, the Badgers sport an incredible defense. They are ranked 15th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and their rushing defense is tops in the Big Ten. Wisconsin had a couple rough back-to-back games against UTEP and Nebraska in the first half of the season but it has been stout since then as the Badgers have not allowed more than 16 points in any of their last five games, allowing just over two touchdowns per contest.

The Badgers fall into a solid situation as we play against road underdogs that are coming off three straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Buckeyes offense has been rolling but they are just 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl last game while Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games following a win by 35 or more points. 10* (396) Wisconsin Badgers

We played on Marshall last week at UAB and despite a strong comeback near the end of the game, the Thundering Herd lost, hurting their chances for a bowl game. Afterwards, players admitted they came out flat which is absurd considering what was at stake. Now the games are truly must win situations and after last week's debacle, you can guarantee that Marshall players will not be coming out flat this week. With two games left and sitting two games under .500, Marshall has to win out.

Houston is also sitting at 4-6 on the season so it too will have to win out to make it to a bowl game but it is a bigger stretch for the Cougars at this point. They have dropped their last two games but they have played poorly for three straight games as they have been outgained by 155, 173 and 244 total yards over that stretch, The Cougars defense has been the culprit of late as they have given up 516.3 ypg during the three-game stretch and Marshall has an offense that can take advantage.

Marshall is eighth in the nation in total offense, averaging 511.3 ypg and it is first in C-USA in total offense, scoring offense and passing offense. The Thundering Herd have scored 31 points or more in all but two of their 10 games and that run will continues against a Cougars defense that is 109th overall and 111th in scoring in the country. While they did fare well against Rice and UAB, they have allowed 41 or more points four times including 56 points against Louisiana Tech and 72 points against SMU.

Marshall's defense is not much better and that has been the cause for some of the problems this season. The Houston offense is notoriously strong but it is far from the same unit this season. The Cougars are a pedestrian 47th in scoring offense and they are coming off two bad games against East Carolina and Tulsa including scoring a season low seven points last week. Should this game try to turn into a shootout, Marshall will have the significant edge.

The Cougars find themselves in many negative situations here as they are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while getting outscored by 16.8 ppg in those 30 games. Also, Houston is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games and coming off a loss by 20 points or more, the Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after that. Marshall keeps the postseason hopes alive with a victory. 10* (332) Marshall Thundering Herd

The Bills dropped to 3-6 following their third straight loss and the hopes of sneaking into the playoffs are getting slimmer by the week. The possibility is still there as only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have winning records in the race for the two Wild Card spots. Buffalo had its chance to upset the Patriots but a costly interception with just 23 seconds remaining ended the comeback attempt. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 134 total yards but turnovers did them in.

The Dolphins have dropped two in a row and they were exposed on Sunday against lowly Tennessee. It was the fifth straight game that Miami got outgained and the seventh time in nine games on the season so despite being just a game under .500, it has been pretty fortunate along the way. The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road with the wins coming against the Jets and Bengals despite getting outgained in both games as turnovers were the difference. Despite all of this, Miami is a very slight road underdog once again.

This game will come down to how the Bills can recover from that heartbreaking loss in New England. Heading home definitely will help as will the fact that it has already been announced that the game is sold out which is a big gain for Buffalo. While the recovery is a question, the same can be said for the Dolphins as their loss was much worse and might be even tough to recover from since it is a very young team and once that has not had to bounce back on the road after a big loss.

Miami is just 26th in the NFL in total offense and 25th in scoring offense. The rushing game has been horrible of late as the Dolphins have not had 100 rushing yards in any game since Week Three. In their past six games they are averaging a mere 72 rushing ypg. Buffalo's defense is suspect but it should be fine here. On the other side, the Bills will be without Fred Jackson but C.J. Spiller can more than make up for it. Over the last four games, he has totaled over 100 yards rushing and receiving combined.

This is a must win game for both sides and we give the edge to the home team on a Thursday night with a very small line. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games coming off two straight up losses as a favorite while Buffalo is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. The Bills won this season against Kansas City after getting pummeled on the road in New York against the Jets after a -3 turnover margin. 10* (306) Buffalo Bills

Virginia has kept its slim bowl hopes alive with wins in its last two games including a last second victory over Miami on Saturday. The Cavaliers were celebrating like they had just won a bowl game and not a team that is still competing to try and get into one so that alone shows they will be in a letdown spot here. Virginia had lost six straight games prior to this two-game run so while it is carrying some added momentum around, it is very hard to see this team keep going on like this.

North Carolina is coming off a loss against Georgia Tech as it allowed a whopping 68 points to the Yellow Jackets. The Tar Heels had no answer for the Georgia Tech option which came as no surprise as they have had trouble the last few years as preparing for that attack is tough to do. North Carolina has come back the last two years with wins and covers following its loss to Georgia Tech as it certainly found the going much easier in its follow up game.

The Yellow Jackets 68 points were the most ever allowed by North Carolina to a conference opponent so we should see a major bounceback after that embarrassment. The Tar Heels defense really is not that bad as they came into that game ranked 43rd overall and 27th in scoring so Virginia will have it hands full despite what happened last week. The Cavaliers are just 87th in the country in scoring offense as they have scored 20 points or fewer in six of their 10 games.

On the other side, Virginia has a defense that is ranked 33rd overall but 74th in points allowed and the big variances in points and yards on both sides comes down to turnovers. The Cavaliers are ranked 112th in the nation in turnover margin at -1.20 per game while North Carolina is ranked 29th at +0.60 per game. Forecasting turnovers is nearly impossible but at this level, these trends tend to remain pretty consistent. Also, the Tar Heels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing 40 or more points.

North Carolina has yet to cover on the road this season but all four games have come against teams that are at .500 or better on the season. Also, that winless ATS mark is negated by the fact that Virginia has not been able to cover at home as it is 0-5-1 ATS ay home and 1-8-1 overall. The Tar Heels have been favored in each of their last seven games but they have been favored by at least 6.5 points in each of those games so they are getting a very favorable number here. 10* (307) North Carolina Tar Heels

Kansas City comes into this game with a 1-7 record following another disappointing performance last Thursday at San Diego. The Chiefs actually once again did not play bad but they were hurt by turnovers as they had four miscues and it was the seventh time in eight games they have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle. That has obviously hurt both sides of the ball as despite being near the bottom of the NFL in points scored and allowed, they are 16th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively.

The Steelers are very heavy favorites in this game as they have won three straight games and are looking good to make another serious playoff push. This is a horrible spot in my opinion though as Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win last week in New York against the Giants and it has a game on deck with Baltimore next week which will have huge implications in the AFC North. The Steelers have no interest in this game so we will not be seeing their best effort Monday night.

How bad have turnovers hurt the Chiefs? Despite being 1-7, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 ypg which is 11th best in the NFL. So obviously they have hurt quite a bit. Handicapping turnovers is a tough thing to do since there is no basis for it as a lot of that comes down to luck and being in the right place at the right time or vice versa. The Steelers used to be a ball-hawking defense but that is not the case anymore as they finished last in the AFC in takeaways last year and have just eight this year.

The key for Kansas City tonight will be to establish a running game and not give it up. While the Steelers defense is tops in the NFL, their rushing defense has been a weakness. They have allowed only 100 yards once this season but teams are not trying to run which is the reason as Pittsburgh has seen the third fewest amount of rushing attempts in the league. The Steelers are allowing a rather high 4.0 ypc and with the Chiefs averaging 4.7 ypc on offense, they can definitely take advantage.

The weather is not looking great tonight so that should favor the underdog as poor conditions tend to shorten games which is a benefit for big underdogs. Kansas City falls into numerous positive situations and one that stands out in fact has to do with turnovers as we play on road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse on the season, after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (239) Kansas City Chiefs

This is certainly not the best of spots for Denver as it is coming off a road win at Cincinnati last week and now has to travel back east once again to take on Carolina. The Broncos have a showdown with San Diego next week so they can certainly be in lookahead mode but the fact that they are on the road for a second consecutive week is what makes this one a go. Denver has won three straight, scoring more than 30 points in each, and that is a go against if ever there was one.

Carolina is coming off a much needed victory as it had dropped five straight games prior to the victory at Washington last week. That skid started with a blowout loss against the Giants but the next four games all could have gone either way as the four defeats came by five points or fewer and by an average of 3.0 ppg. Carolina is clearly the best 2-6 team in football as they are outgaining opponent by an average of 1.9 ypg which is small but no other team that is at least four games under .500 can claim that.

The Panthers offense should be able to feed off their solid game last week and have some solid success at home. Many will be questioning how the Carolina defense will stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense and my answer is keep playing like it has. Since Carolina fell to Atlanta 30-28 in Week Four, the Panthers' defense has been one of the league's best, ranking fourth in total defense, allowing just 292.3 ypg and pass defense, allowing 189.0 ypg and fifth in points allowed with only 17.8 ppg.

I played against Denver last week and it was able to escape despite getting outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos are a highly public betting team right now as they have posted a 5-3 ATS mark including wins in their last two games on the road. We have seen the value be completely depleted from Denver and last week was one of those games where we were arguably on the right side of the wager but ended with a bad result. The home underdog once again gets the call today.

Play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 ypg or more on offense going up against teams that are allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Carolina has thrive in situations like this as it is 12-2 ATS in it last 14 home games against teams that are averaging 375 or more ypg. In addition, the Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. 10* (222) Carolina Panthers

Atlanta once again was able to avoid its first loss of the season as it defeated the Cowboys and got the frontdoor cover thanks to a field goal with 17 seconds remaining. The Falcons hit the road once again where they are 4-0 on the season but three of those wins came against some very disappointing opposition. The same can be said about this week's foe but the further we get into the season with that unblemished record, the more amped the other team is going to be to stop that streak.

We can definitely say New Orleans is at the top of that list. The Saints and Falcons have become pretty big rivals and with New Orleans being at the top of the division two of the last three years and Atlanta claiming the other year, it has turned bitter. The Saints have struggled to a 3-5 start this season but after opening 0-4, they have started to catch a little bit of fire with wins in three of their last four games. The playoffs were once a distant dream but that is no longer the case anymore as New Orleans is right back in it.

The Falcons have played a schedule ranked 28th in the NFL by Sagarin so you would think they have been dominating. Well, they haven't. While winning is what counts, it is a very below average 8-0 team and Sagarin backs that up with the Falcons sitting sixth in his power rankings. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 20.3 ypg. Looking at rankings, Atlanta is eighth in total offense and 19th in total defense and last year's 10-6 team actually had a better average ranking (10th and 12th respectively).

New Orleans still possesses one of the best offense in the NFL as it is ranked fifth in total offense and eighth in scoring offense and put the ball in Drew Brees' hands on his home turf is a scary thought for the opponent. The Saints have two home losses this year to a couple bad teams in Washington and Kansas City but they did have chances to win both of those games but the defense was horrific both times out. That will be an issue with some again here but the switch may have finally been flipped.

The Saints defense responded when it needed to against the Eagles on Monday and they can feed off that effort. That unit is part of a great situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against winning teams and 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg on offense. 10* (228) New Orleans Saints

Utah has won its last two games to inch closer to .500 for the season but both of those games came at home. The Utes are 0-4 on the road this season yet come into this game as a road favorite which is definitely showing them to be a bit overvalued. It is even more so when the Utes have been underdogs in each of their last three road games. Obviously getting two more wins to get into the postseason is their goal right now but a home game against Arizona and a road game at Colorado offers better chances of that happening.

The Huskies have won two straight games following a three-game skid and they are now over .500 once again and one win away from bowl eligibility. While getting that final win late in a season can be difficult, that will not be the case for the Huskies as after this they have Colorado and Washington St. Washington has been a home underdog in each of its last three games and have covered all three of those games including both outright wins when it was getting single digits.

I really like the way Washington has fought as after a three-game losing streak, the could have tossed in the towel but instead they have stepped up with the defense. The Huskies are now ranked 59th in both total defense and scoring defense after allowing just 30 points over the last two games. They did allow 450 yards to California last week but they have been extremely solid at home, allowing an average of just 324 ypg and 15.8 ppg. Utah averages just 12 ppg and 290 ypg in road games this season.

Utah's defense meanwhile has been the strength of the team but most of that success has come at home. On the road, the Utes are allowing 26.5 ppg and 368 ypg and that is certainly going to help Washington's cause as it offense has been pretty anemic all season, scoring more than 21 points only once and that was against a FCS team. Backing a team with that type of poor consistency may not seem like a good idea but the situation calls for it with this the last home game of the year.

Washington has enjoyed great success at home this year and prior as it is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a game played on the road and coming off any road game has been beneficial as the Huskies are 14-5 ATS under head coach Steve Sarkisian after playing a game on the road. Additionally, the Huskies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against losing teams while Utah is 1-4 in its last five games after a win by 20 or more points and 2-7 in its last nine games after allowing less than 20 points last game. 10* (156) Washington Huskies

Mississippi was part of this package last week and after a great start for nearly a half, the Rebels imploded. They actually led the game into the final minute of the second quarter but Georgia scored to take the lead and then came out like a different team in the second half and ran away with it. Mississippi is still one win away from becoming bowl eligible and with the final two games coming against LSU and Mississippi St., this has turned into a must win. A return home after two straight road games will help matters as well.

Vanderbilt is playing very good right now as it has won three straight games to move to 5-4 on the season and the thought of a bowl game which was lost a while ago is back into talks. None of the Commodores final three games are against any elite teams so this game is not of the same importance as it is on the other side. Not taking anything away from the Vanderbilt winning streak but it has come against teams that are a combined 3-25 while another once of its wins came against Presbyterian of the FCS.

Last season, the Rebels finished 114th in total offense and 90th in total defense. They could not run or pass and they could not stop either on defense as well but this year it has been a dramatic turnaround. Mississippi is ranked 57th in total offense and 54th in total defense and while not many people gave them much of a shot this season, they returned eight starters on both sides of the ball, the most since 2009 when they finished 9-4 and defeated Oklahoma St. in the Cotton Bowl.

Vanderbilt has a very suspect offense as it is 75th overall and in 82nd in points scored so do not expect much on that side of the ball from the Commodores. They have been getting it done with their defense which is ranked 19th overall and 14th in scoring. It helps that they have played five teams that are ranked 100th or worse in total offense as well as playing the aforementioned Presbyterian. While rankings can be a strong tool to use, they can also be very skewed and be somewhat worthless.

The Rebels fall into a great situation as we play against road teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. Vanderbilt is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after a win by 28 points or more while going 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (132) Mississippi Rebels

Marshall came into the season with some high expectations but now sitting at 4-5, it will have to finish strong just to get to a bowl game. Of those five losses, the Thundering Herd outgained their opponent in three of those so they have had their chances. On the season, Marshall is outgaining opponents by close to 60 ypg so this team is a lot better than the record shows. The have lost to the tough teams on the schedule and defeated the lower teams and this week's opponent falls into that latter category.

UAB is coming off a rare road victory and it was its first win of the season against a team from the FBS. We played against the Blazers and things were looking good for a while as they trailed 16-0 but stormed back with 27-3 run to close it out. At 2-7, UAB is no longer in the postseason picture so there is not much to play for and with their last home game next week, that is what they will be looking ahead to. The Blazers have won consecutive games only four times since 2006 and there is no reason to think they add to it here.

Both teams come in with strong offenses but Marshall's is far superior. The Thundering Herd are sixth in total offense and 13th in scoring offense and they have had only one bad game this entire season which came against UCF two games back. Marshall has surpassed 500 total yards six times this season and there is every reason to believe it does it again this week. UAB is 93rd in total defense and 108th in scoring defense and while it is coming off its best game against an FBS team, Southern Miss cannot compare.

The Marshall defense is not much better as it is ranked 99th overall and 117th in scoring and that is why it possesses a losing record up to this point. The Herd have allowed 50 or more points four times but while UAB does have a strong offense, even Marshall should be able to keep it at bay. The Blazers are 49th in total offense and 56th in scoring offense and looking at things closer, they have gone over 400 yards of total offense just once the entire season and that was a game they still ended up losing by 10 points.

The Blazers outgained Southern Miss by 140 total yards last week which was the most it has outgained a FBS opponent this season but that is not a good thing as UAB is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more total yards. Marshall is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win while UAB is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. Marshall has won and covered the last three meetings and I do not expect that to change this year. 10* (177) Marshall Thundering Herd

Indiana defeated Iowa last Saturday and we were on the right side of that ticket, barely. The Hawkeyes have now lost three straight games and they have not been overly pretty in doing so as they have been outgained by 520 total yards. Their losses turn into our win now as we will be backing Iowa in what is a very favorable line in a very favorable situation. The Hawkeyes are two wins away from bowl eligibility but with remaining games against Michigan and Nebraska, they likely have to take this game for a shot.

It is pretty rare to find a team that has lost five straight games, four by double-digits, and still just being a road underdog by a small amount. That is the case for Purdue as it has dropped to 3-6 after a very promising start to the season. The Boilermakers opened 3-1 thanks to a very easy schedule that included games against FCS Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan and Marshall. Those are the only wins though and while winning out is feasible to get to a bowl, there is zero confidence and momentum with this team now.

Through four weeks this season, the Boilermakers were playing over their heads on defense as they were ranked 17th overall and 19th in scoring. They have since imploded as they have allowed at least 34 points in five of their last six games and their rankings have risen to 77th overall and 83rd in scoring. Iowa has been offensively challenged at times this season and it has gone four straight games without scoring more than 21 points but we should see that streak come to an end here.

The Hawkeyes have been able to hang around in most of their losses because of a strong defense that is allowing just 368.1 ypg and 21.4 ppg, 41st and 29th respectively. They were definitely stronger early in the season as the last three games have been poor but now Iowa faces the worst offense it has seen since playing Michigan St. when it allowed only 16 points in its overtime win over the Spartans. The Boilermakers are 81st in total offense and have scored more than 22 points only once in their last five games.

Purdue has been horrible in these spots as it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7.0 points while going 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 450 or more total yards in two straight games. The Hawkeyes meanwhile are 10-2 ATS in their 12 games under head coach Kirk Ferentz as home favorites between 3.5 and 7.0 points. Also, Iowa is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games after rushing for 125 or fewer yards in three straight games so expect a big bounceback effort on Saturday. 10* (130) Iowa Hawkeyes

We won with Pittsburgh on Saturday as it covered against Notre Dame with no problem and really should have come away with the victory in regulation. The Panthers blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead and eventually lost in double overtime. That outright loss is our gain this week however as that victory would have made their season and now they have to come back on a short week to play a game they have no interest in. Pittsburgh needs to keep winning for bowl purposes but this spot is horrid.

Connecticut has been playing pretty inconsistent. The Huskies have lost four straight games but two of those were for the taking as they lost to Temple and South Florida by a combined 10 points despite outgaining both of those opponents. Connecticut is back home after playing two straight road games as well as three of its last four on the highway and this is now a must win situation. At 3-6, the Huskies need to win out to become bowl eligible and the spot to start out doing that is very favorable.

The Connecticut offense is not going to be scaring many teams as it has been very inconsistent of late but what it lacks in offense, it makes up for in defense. The Huskies are ninth in the nation in total defense and 21st in scoring defense and those rankings could be better if not for two bad road performances at Western Michigan and Syracuse. Connecticut has allowed fewer than 300 total yards five times while giving up fewer than 20 points six times. The most points allowed at home has been 17 points.

The Panthers offense this season has been hit or miss and playing a strong defense coming off a physical game at Notre Dame will likely result in a miss here. Take away 102 points and 1,154 yards against Gardner Webb and Temple and their overall numbers get a lot worse. Pittsburgh does possess a very strong stop unit so holding Connecticut in check would normally not be a problem. Again, coming off that huge letdown loss at Notre Dame can affect the defensive in a negative way just like the offense.

The Huskies will look to run the ball against a suspect rushing defense and they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last time out. Also, they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games coming off a conference road loss and they fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (112) Connecticut Huskies

We saw a similar situation with Indianapolis a few weeks back when it defeated Green Bay at home which happened to be the first game for the Colts after finding out head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. They won that game for him. Flash forward to this past Sunday and the Colts were winners at home once again and this time Pagano was in the locker room after the game and gave a very emotional speech to the players and that win will be tough to play after, especially on such a short week.

Jacksonville is coming off its fifth straight loss as it was defeated by Detroit as it fell behind 24-0 and could not recover. The Jaguars are now 1-7 on the season but they find themselves in the national spotlight on Thursday so they will certainly come to play. We saw another similar situation last season when they were 1-5 and had a Monday night home game against the Ravens which they won outright as 10-point underdogs. Two of Jacksonville's losses this year came in overtime so it has not been horrible.

The Colts are now 5-3 on the season which is certainly one of the biggest turnarounds from last season after winning just two games. Indianapolis has won three straight games but it has to be one of the most average teams in the NFL that possesses a winning record. Two of the three losses have come by 20 points or more while all five wins have come by four points or less or in overtime. Five of the first eight games have come at home and both of those 20-point losses in fact took place on the highway.

The Colts have been moving the ball very well on offense but have little to show for it as they have turned the ball over and have failed to finish off drives which has led to field goals. They are 23rd in scoring offense and they are also 23rd in scoring defense. The Jaguars offense has been pathetic at times to say the least as turnovers have not helped along the way. The good news here is that the Colts defense has forced only three takeaways all season which is by far the fewest in the NFL.

We often see underdogs go to favorites and vice versa in college football from week to week but it is more rare in the NFL but we are seeing it this week as the Colts go from a home underdog to a road favorite. This dynamic goes into a situation going against the Colts as we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-32 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. in addition, Indianapolis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* (106) Jacksonville Jaguars

We lost with Virginia Tech last Thursday at Miami by 18 points despite outgaining the Hurricanes by 74 total yards. It was the second straight game the Hokies won the yardage battle and lost the game and it was because of turnovers as they lost that battle by a combined 7-1. Virginia Tech is now back home and it is part of a very rare dynamic where it goes from a road favorite to a home underdog and a significant one in fact. The home team is a perfect 9-0 in Hokies games this season.

The loss to NC State has certainly inspired the Seminoles as they have won their last three games by a combined score of 132-34. Florida St. controls its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic Division as it is tied with Clemson but owns the tiebreaker because of a head-to-head victory. The Seminoles are coming off a bye week and it arguably came at the worst possible time as they have lost momentum from their three-game winning streak and now face a team desperate for a victory.

Obviously this is not the same Virginia Tech team we are used to so there is a reason the Hokies are getting 14 points at home. The last time Virginia Tech was a two-touchdown underdog at home was back in 2001 so it has been a while since the Hokies have been in this position. Right now it is about pride and not making stupid mistakes that have plagued them in a lot of their games this season but most of those have come on the road. The Hokies are still 4-0 at home which counts for something.

The Hokies defense has been the biggest disappointment as they are ranked 40th in total defense and 52nd in scoring defense. The stop unit played well enough at times last week at Miami but it is hard to fault the group when it allows two touchdowns off Miami drives that started inside the Virginia Tech redzone. The Seminoles are tough on offense as they are ranked seventh and third in total offense and scoring offense respectively but while averaging 54 ppg at home, they are averaging a far less 26.3 ppg on the road.

The Seminoles are coming off a 48-point effort against Duke and they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Hokies have a great situation on their side as we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 109-57 ATS (65.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Virginia Tech Hokies

Toledo has cracked the Top 25 polls following eight straight victories. The Rockets could easily be 9-0 right now but they lost their season opener to Arizona in overtime but instead of sulking, they have used it as motivation to only get stronger. Toledo is a half-game behind Northern Illinois for first place in the MAC West and with a game at Northern Illinois next weekend, it is getting to be crunch time. There will be no lookahead for Toledo however as a loss here would hurt bad.

Ball St. has won three straight games to move three games over .500 on the season but it has already lost to the Huskies and at 3-2 in the conference, chances of a divisional crown are slim to none. The Cardinals have played a relatively tough schedule but wins over Western Michigan, Central Michigan and Army in their last three games are not very impressive. This is the third straight road game for Ball St. which is never an easy situation and one that is only tougher here against a high quality opponent.

Toledo has quietly flown under the radar with its eight consecutive wins but it will certainly have a bulls-eye on its back as long as it remains undefeated in the conference. The Rockets will not be sneaking up on anyone but playing the role of favorite, they won't be doing that to begin with. The offense has been great all season as Toledo is ranked 32 overall and 34th in scoring and it will be facing a Ball St. defense that is ranked 106th in total defense and 98th in points allowed.

The Rockets defense is not ranked very high but they have played better than what it shows as they have allowed 23 points or less in four of their last seven games and three of their best defense yardage efforts have come in three of their last five games. Ball St. has a very good offense so Toledo will definitely be tested as the Cardinals are 22nd in the nation in total offense. However they are just 41st in scoring offense which is a big ranking disparity compared to their total offense as turnovers have played a big part.

The Rockets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss against the spread while going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites between 3.5 and 7.0 points. Toledo falls into a simple yet effective situation as we play on home favorites after seven or more consecutive straight up wins, in conference games. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Ball St. meanwhile is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (102) Toledo Rockets

We saw the under come in last night which was good for Vegas and the books and they will be hoping for the same tonight but will not be as fortunate. We played the Saints to stay under last Sunday night which it did without much of a problem. That game was on the road however as the New Orleans offense struggled with only 252 total yards which was a season low. The only other time the Saints were held to fewer than 300 total yards, they erupted for 474 yards next game.

The 14 points scored last week was the lowest point total New Orleans has put up since opening week of 2009 not counting Week 17 games. The Saints responded with 25 points in its next game. Last season, New Orleans lowest output on offense was 20 points at Tampa Bay. It responded with 62 points at home against the Colts. Granted the Colts were horrible but the point is that New Orleans has responded in the past coming off poor offensive efforts and that will happen again.

The Eagles game went over the total last week as they lost to the Falcons 30-17. Their offense has been its share of struggles this season as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Those four games were against teams ranked in the top ten of the NFL in scoring defense however and tonight that will not be the case as the Saints are ranked 30th in points allowed and dead last in total defense. Now is the time for the Eagles to break out of that slump.

Even though they have not put up points, the Eagles offense has been able to move the ball as they are 13th in total offense which is not great but it shows turnovers have been a big cause in holding them back. They should have no issues as New Orleans has created only nine turnovers on defense and that is one of the big reasons it has struggled so much as it has been on the field for way too long. Philadelphia can take advantage and break out of its low scoring slump.

This is no doubt a big number but I feel it is very justified as the situation and the matchups both favor a high-scoring game. 20 is the magic number here as the Eagles are 6-0 to the over in their last six games when both teams score 20 or more points and New Orleans is 13-3 to the over in its last 16 games in the same parameter. Those 22 games have averaged 57.8 ppg. The over is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games against teams with a losing record and the over is 4-0 in the Eagles last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (439) Philadelphia Eagles/(440) New Orleans Saints

Dallas is coming off another disappointing loss as it fought back from a 23-0 deficit to the Giants to take the lead only to give it back again in the fourth quarter. This was the Cowboys second in their last three games where they had a chance to win but could not come through in the end. The worst part is that Dallas outgained New York by 141 yards and outgained Baltimore by 165 yards but it lost the turnover battle both times. The Cowboys continue to waste talent but that changes here.

We bet against the Falcons last week but the Eagles failed to show up yet again as they fell behind by 14 points early and were unable to recover. Atlanta remains the only undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and while winning is what counts, it is arguably one of the worst 7-0 teams you will see based on statistics. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 12.4 ypg and they have been outgained in three of their seven games. That is not good against Dallas which has been outgained only twice by 16 and 19 yards.

Dallas has won the turnover battle in only one of its seven games this season and that is obviously the reason for its poor record. The Cowboys are seventh in the NFL in total offense and fourth in total defense yet are just 23rd and 18th in points scored and points allowed respectively. Despite a high powered offense, they have scored more than 24 points only once this season. Expect to see a balanced offensive attack against Atlanta that is not very good in either defensive category.

The Falcons are ranked 20th in total defense but have allowed the seventh fewest amount of points as the turnover issue is just the opposite for them. They have yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season which is pretty impressive this late into the season. Even the offense is pretty average as Atlanta is 13th overall but has played from short fields a lot of the times. The Falcons have played only one team currently ranked in the top half of the league as they have played the 31st ranked schedule.

Dallas needs to fins a way to close the door and this is the perfect opportunity to do it. The Falcons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more yards last game. Also, we play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (437) Dallas Cowboys

Chicago came away with a big win over Carolina on Sunday as it got away with a pretty bad game to pull out the victory. I played against the Bears then and will be playing against them again here as this is a horrible spot on Sunday. They were outgained by 206 total yards against the Panthers but were able to take advantage of miscues late in the game. Coming off that last second victory and now hits the road as a favorite with games against San Francisco and Houston on deck puts Chicago in a brutal situation.

Tennessee had won two straight games before dropping its game in overtime against Indianapolis this past Sunday. The Titans dropped to 3-5 on the season but with only three other non-division leaders in the AFC above .500, the season is far from done. The schedule is not very demanding the rest of the way so getting back into the playoff picture is far from out of the question. The Titans next two games are on the road with a bye week sandwiched in-between so taking care of things here is a must.

The Titans defense has started to play a lot better of late. After allowing 30 points or more in their first five games, they have allowed an average of 25.3 ppg over their last three games and while that is still pretty poor compared to NFL standards, any improvement is a good one. Tennessee should not have to worry about much here as Chicago's offense has been pretty pedestrian as it is ranked 26th in total offense and even though the ppg average is high, that is due to only three games.

The Bears defense has carried them this season as they are ranked seventh overall and second in points allowed. Again, it has come down to just a few games against some pretty bad teams that has skewed the overall numbers. Tennessee is definitely inconsistent on offense but it has shown the ability to put up some significant numbers. After putting up more than 325 yards only once in their first five games, the Titans have averaged 362.7 ypg over their last three games.

Tennessee falls into a solid situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 113-66 ATS (63.1 percent) since 1983. The Titans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in their last game. Chicago meanwhile is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in its previous game while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after three or more straight wins. 10* (430) Tennessee Titans

After two straight primetime games with a bye week sandwiched in-between, the Broncos get back to a normal schedule as they play an early game on Sunday on the road. Denver scored 35 unanswered points to defeat San Diego on Monday night and then following a bye week, it took apart the Saints at home, winning by 20 points and outgaining New Orleans by 278 total yards. That puts the Broncos in a very difficult spot this week against a hungry team.

The Bengals are coming off their bye week and it came at the perfect time as they are riding a three-game losing streak which came right after a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati never should have lost to Cleveland or Miami as it outgained both opponents but turnovers were the difference as it had seven in the two games combined. The Bengals remain home next week as well as they face the Giants so coming away with two losses will drop them to 3-6 and very likely out of the playoff picture.

After finishing seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense last season, the Bengals have slipped to 21st and 25th respectively this year. That is a pretty big drop but the defense has not been consistently bad and they have actually played very well in the majority of their games. Inconsistence is better than being consistently poor and coming off the bye week, I expect them to continue to improve. Denver is solid on offense with Peyton Manning but it has been very inconsistent with only two really big games.

Denver's defense has gotten a lot better this year compared to last season but it is still giving up a substantial amount of points, especially early on in games. Cincinnati is coming off its worst game of the season as it gained only 185 yards against the Steelers. The last time the offense put up fewer than 300 yards, the Bengals bounced back next game and amassed 438 yards. The bounceback factor comes into play again here and playing in a substantial game, we should see the rebound take place.

The Bengals are in a good bounceback spot as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road teams that are averaging more than 370 ypg on offense after outgaining their last opponent by 200 or more total yards in their previous game, going up against a team allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (416) Cincinnati Bengals

To say Southern Mississippi is having a tough season would be an understatement. The Golden Eagles, after winning at least seven games every year since 2002, are 0-8 this season and are now just playing for pride. The tough part of the schedule is done with and they do in fact have a chance to close strong to provide some momentum going into next season and that starts this week. Southern Mississippi is 0-4 at home and desperately needs to grab a win and keep the home faithful interested.

This is the perfect opponent for the Golden Eagles to break through as UAB is 1-7 on the season and has yet to defeat a team from the FBS as its only win came against Southwestern Louisiana from the FCS. Five of the Blazers seven losses have been by double-digits and they were actually favored at Tulane last week but lost by 10 points. UAB is 2-15 on the road over the last three seasons and while one of those came here three years ago, it was definitely an aberration.

One big advantage in favor of Southern Mississippi is the running game matchup. The Golden Eagles are 52nd in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 171 ypg which certainly isn't great but it is the best part of their offense. UAB is allowing 185.8 ypg on the ground which is 88th in the country and it has yielded some big totals. The Blazers have allowed over 200 yards on four different occasions and their current average is skewed by the fact they allowed just 47 yards to Southwestern Louisiana.

UAB's offense has been pretty good this year as it is ranked 51st overall and 54th in scoring. However, a lot of the damage came in two games where it gained 512 yards and 622 yards while scoring a combined 97 points. The Golden Eagles defense is not a stifling unit in the least bit as they are 87th, giving up 431.5 ypg. However, facing teams like Nebraska, Louisville and Boise St. can do that and they have performed a lot better at home than they have on the road.

The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. They also fall into a negative contrarian situation where we play against teams averaging between 390 and 440 ypg going up against teams averaging between 280 and 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (378) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is one of a few remaining games that stands in the way between Oregon and a perfect season. The Ducks are off to an 8-0 start but the fact of the matter is that they have played no one. They look outstanding on both sides of the ball but playing a schedule that is ranked 62nd in the country can do that. This is no doubt a very solid team but we have yet to see what Oregon can do against a quality opponent and with it being on the road only makes it an even tougher situation.

The Trojans are coming off a very disappointing loss at Arizona last weekend. USC can still run the table to capture the Pac 12 South Division which would set up a likely rematch with Oregon but it needs to take care of business here first. The Trojans have lost consecutive games only twice over the past decade and while the test will be stiff, they have the personnel to hang around here. The last time Oregon visited, USC lost by 21 points so it will be out to make up for that home embarrassment.

Oregon leads the country in scoring offense which is no shock to anybody as its speed is simply outstanding. The Trojans defense was having a very good season up until last week when they gave up season highs in points and yards with 39 and 588 respectively. Many may feel that is bad news coming into this game but I do not think we can take last week too serious as USC was caught looking ahead and it paid the price for it. No, the Trojans will not stop Oregon but should slow it down enough.

The matchup that could make the difference is the Trojans offense against the Oregon defense. Namely, the passing game. USC is ninth in the country is passing efficiency and the Ducks have not faced a team yet with a ranking that high. They do possess a solid passing efficiency defense but facing Matt Barkley, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee could be a recipe for disaster. Oregon is young in the secondary with sophomore cornerbacks, Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. That could be trouble.

This is just the fourth home game for USC and now that the pressure is off, the Trojans can go out and play spoiler. They fall into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 31-7 ATS (8136 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, USC is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. 10* (394) USC Trojans

Indiana may be 3-5 on the season but it has played a lot better than that record shows. The Hoosiers have lost four of those five games by four points or fewer including their last three games so they are just a few plays away from being close to bowl eligible. Indiana snapped its five-game losing streak this past weekend with a 14-point road win at Illinois and that is going to provide some big momentum coming into this game. The Hoosiers have been favored only three times this year and won the yardage each time.

While things could be better for Indiana, the same can be said for Iowa as well although its season has been much more of a disappointment with higher expectations coming in. The Hawkeyes narrowly defeated Northern Illinois to open the season and then lost two of its next three games including a bad loss to Central Michigan at home. They bounced back with two straight win but have since lost their last two games by 24 and 11 points. Iowa has been outgained in each of its last three games and by a combined 463 yards.

The Indiana defense has again played poor but its offense has played at a very high level as it is ranked 37th in total offense and 35th in scoring offense. The Hoosiers have scored 30 or more points five times including each of their last three games and they can take advantage of a Hawkeyes defense that has played very bad the last two games. They have given up a combined 66 points and a combined 937 total yards after allowing fewer than 400 yards in each of its previous six games.

While the Iowa defense is starting to fall apart, the offense has been a wreck all season long. The Hawkeyes are ranked 102nd in the nation in total offense and 105th in scoring and they have failed to reach 20 points in any of their last three games. The rushing defense has hurt Indiana the most as it is last in the Big Ten but Iowa does not have the players to take advantage. Its passing offense is even worse as Iowa is ranked 115th in the country in passing efficiency.

This is just the third true road game for the Hawkeyes and it is the first time they have had to play consecutive home games. They did it once each of the past two seasons and came away on the losing end in each of those second road games. Iowa is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games while going 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a losing home record. Indiana does not have much room for error so this game has turned into a must win for bowl possibilities. 10* (328) Indiana Hoosiers

We won with Miami Ohio last Saturday as it defeated Ohio outright, sending the Bobcats home with their first loss of the season. We will be switching sides this week as this presents a great letdown situation for the RedHawks and they simply are not very good on the road. They are 1-4 on the season on the highway including two straight blowout losses. The lone win on the road came at Akron by just a touchdown and the Zips are arguably the worst team in the MAC.

It has been a rough run for Buffalo as it has lost six straight games heading into this week. The Bulls have hung tough for a lot of those games and they have actually won the yardage battle in half of those games. It started with a home loss against Kent St. but the Golden Flashes are playing great right now. Over the last five games, Buffalo has been an underdogs by over a touchdown each time showing just how tough the schedule has been. The Bulls are favored here for a reason.

The Buffalo scoring offense has dried up as it has scored 20 points or less in three straight games. That changes here though. Even though the Bulls have not been scoring, they have been putting up decent yardage amounts and there is no reason for that to change. They have rushed for 169 and 170 yards the last two games and now face a Miami rushing defense that is ranked 115th in the country, allowing 233.6 ypg. Overall the RedHawks are 115th in total defense and 107th in scoring defense.

The RedHawks offense did just enough to get by Ohio but the unit is not very good as they are 80th overall and 93rd in scoring. They have no rushing game to speak of so they will not be able to take advantage of a poor Bulls rushing defense. Miami has gotten by with a strong passing attack however that plays right into the Buffalo strength as the Bulls are 20th in the nation in passing defense, allowing 192.4 ypg. The Bulls allowed only 20 and 25 points to Pittsburgh and Toledo respectively, two very good offenses.

Miami is 4-4 on the season and it is a game behind Kent St. in the MAC East. They play the Golden Flashes at home next week so not only is this game considered a letdown but the RedHawks are in a definite lookahead situation as well. Despite possessing a .500 record, Miami has been outgained in seven of its eight games and the only time it won the yardage battle was against aforementioned Akron. Overall the RedHawks are getting outgained by 112.6 ypg while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 1.7 ypg. 10* (370) Buffalo Bulls

We won with Washington on Saturday as it handed Oregon St. its first loss of the season but it can certainly be argued that the Beavers handed the Huskies that game. Oregon St. threw four interceptions and it was unable to recover from that despite outgaining the Huskies by 134 total yards. The last time Washington pulled off a home upset came against Stanford at the end of September and it went out on the road and got thumped by Oregon in its last game. The Huskies are 0-3 on the highway this year.

California has dropped two straight games to fall to 3-6 on the season and it is now forced to win out to become bowl eligible. The Bears lost at Utah by 22 points even though they outgained the Utes by 97 yards which makes this a great bounceback spot as we are getting value with this number based on these previous results but those were skewed based on the yardage leaders. They Bears have been favored only once in their last seven games and that game resulted in a win at Washington St. by 14 points.

The Bears allowed 49 points last game against Utah but they allowed just 344 total yards and it was because the Utes returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, returned a fumble for a touchdown and also scored two other touchdowns from a short field because of turnovers. This was one of those games that spiraled out of control so while the 49 points given up is included in the stats sheets, it needs to be there with an asterisk next to it. Expect another strong effort from the defense this week.

Washington scored 20 points in its upset win last week against the Beavers as it was the defense that led the way, similar to what it did against Stanford. That defense is suspect however, especially away from home. Going back to the offense, the Huskies have not scored more than 21 points in any game against FBS opposition and take away their 52 points against FCS Portland St. and their ppg average drops from an already bad 20.6 ppg to a horrendous 16.1 ppg in the other seven games.

The Bears have lost their last two games by 18 and 22 points and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games coming two straight double-digit losses. The Huskies meanwhile are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better and they are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Washington has gone seven straight road games without covering and that skid is extended on Friday. 10* (310) California Golden Bears

San Diego was unfortunate last week as it was forced to play in tough weather conditions and lost in Cleveland 7-6. Even giving them a mulligan for that game, the Chargers are not playing good at all and there is no reason for them to be favored by this many points, especially in a divisional game. San Diego has now lost three straight games and that loss against the Broncos three weeks ago where they blew a 24-0 lead is going to stick with them for a while. A return home is good but it has dropped two straight at Qualcomm.

We lost with the Chiefs this past Sunday as they played good enough to win but could not overcome four turnovers. It was the sixth time in seven games that Kansas City lost the turnover battle and it has lost all of those by a least two so things have not been good in that aspect. The Chiefs are 29th in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense but those rankings improve to 11th and 18th respectively in total offense and total defense so they have done well but it is the turnovers that have made them stall.

The Chiefs scored 17 or more points in each of their first four games but have failed to get to that number in any of their last three games. The San Diego defense has been all over the place this year and while it is ranked ninth in scoring and tenth overall, two games against the Titans and Browns have skewed those rankings. The defense has forced one or no turnovers in five of their seven games this season so they have not been able to give their offense a break.

San Diego is only 25th in total offense this season and it is in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Yes they are balanced but a bad balance does the Chargers no good. People may think catching the Chiefs defense will help turn things around but Kansas City has allowed more than 400 total yards only once this season so while the point totals are up, the defense has been decent. Kansas city has won the yardage battle in five of seven games this season.

Kansas City lost the first meeting against San Diego and it was attributed to what else, turnovers. They turned it over six times and there is no way to recover from that. The Chiefs fall into a great revenge situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. The Chiefs are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs

Ohio is coming off its first loss of the season and while we played against the Bobcats in that game, we will not backing them in what is considered a rebound spot as the line is hefty and they have not been able to blow teams away of late. Instead, we will be looking for a high-scoring game as Ohio heads home where all three games against FBS teams has sailed over the number that is posted for this game. The Bobcats and their opponents have averaged 68.7 ppg in those three games.

Eastern Michigan meanwhile is coming off yet another loss at Bowling Green to fall to 1-7 on the season and things are not going to get any easier here. The Eagles managed only three points against the Falcons and while the concern here could be the offense once again, it likely will not take a ton of points to send this one over the number. That is because the defense is even worse as Eastern Michigan is 112th in the country overall and 11th in points allowed, giving up 37.5 ppg.

Ohio had its worst game offensively on the season as it managed only 20 points but it did put up 464 yards of offense which was its fourth highest amount of the season. The problem was the Bobcats had to settle for field goals and also got stopped deep in Miami territory to end the game. The Bobcats are 33rd in total offense and 32nd in scoring offense, the latter being second in the MAC so moving the ball and scoring again will not be an issue. They are pretty average defensively, coming in 61st overall.

We are getting some excellent value in this total in my opinion and a lot of that is due to the results from last week. Eastern Michigan had only 27 total points in its last game after going over the total in three straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, Ohio and Miami put up 43 points in their game and that one stayed well below the number. The Bobcats have stayed under in two straight games although the prior game against Akron finished with 62 points but an extremely high total kept it under.

Eastern Michigan is 12-3 to the over in its last 15 games after coming off a game that stayed under the total and it is 5-0 to the over in its last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This includes a perfect 3-0 to the over in that situation this season. The Bobcats meanwhile are 4-1 to the over in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. We are getting excellent value here and this one should have no issues going over. 10* Over (303) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(304) Ohio Bobcats

Monday night home underdogs are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season with Seattle winning outright over the Packers and the Jets covering against Houston. The former obviously never should have taken place and going back the last few years, Monday night home underdogs are not what they used to be. Still, this number is completely out of line as the 49ers go from a seven-point home favorite to close to a seven-point road favorite in the span of just one week. There is no way the adjustment should be that big.

After starting the season 4-0, Arizona has dropped its last three games. I for one have been against the Cardinals in all three of those games but actually did not play that poorly in any of those games. It can be proven by the fact that Arizona outgained its opponent in all three of those games despite being on the short end of the scoreboard. Last week was especially tough as the Cardinals outgained Minnesota by 147 total yards but still lost by a touchdown. Those three losses are giving us value here.

The 49ers defense is ranked first overall and second in points allowed but they are again playing at a very high level. But they have not looked as dominant as last season though. San Francisco is 10th in rushing defense but after allowing just 318 yards on 98 carries (3.2 ypc) in its first four games, it has allowed 374 yards on 85 caries (4.4 ypc) in its last three games. The 49ers have allowed 285 yards rushing the last two games and this is an area that Arizona has to take advantage of.

San Francisco's offense is ranked ninth overall but just 16th in scoring as it has been unable to finish drives. It is ranked 19th in third down conversions and the 49ers should continue to struggle against an underrated Arizona defense that is allowing opponents to convert just 30.6 percent of their third down attempts, good for sixth best in the NFL. Overall the Cardinals seven in total defense and fourth in scoring defense so it will take a huge effort from the 49ers to break through which I do not see happening.

This is not a very good spot for the 49ers either as they have just enjoyed three straight home games and the last game sets them up for a fall as they are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing six points or less last game. Arizona meanwhile is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their 17 games against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg. An outright victory is not too farfetched here. 10* (244) Arizona Cardinals

The Raiders were able to come back from a big deficit against Jacksonville and pull out a win in overtime. It was just their second win of the season and a victory like that spells letdown even though this is a divisional game that seems to be winnable. Oakland has lost all three road games this year by an average of 18.7 ppg and while it is coming off its best effort in its last game at Atlanta, that was more of the Falcons not even showing up. Expect the opposite for the home team this week.

Kansas City's bye week could not have come sooner as it has been a struggle for the Chiefs early this season. They come into this game with a 1-5 record but they have not played as bas as that record shows. Kansas City outgained all of its first five opponents despite losing four of those games. Even with the poor record, the Chiefs are favored here for the first time this season which shows the situation at hand and the team they are playing. It is now must win time before games at San Diego and Pittsburgh on deck.

The Raiders win was no doubt a big confidence booster and this team has the talent to compete in the division but they are simply too undisciplined. Too many penalties and too many turnovers on offense have hurt them in close games by not being able to win as well as blowout losses that could have been closer. Oakland is 18th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively so it is below average on both sides which isn't helping matters either.

The issue for the Chiefs this season is turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in all but one game and that was wash. Because of this, the offense is struggling to score while the defense is unable to hold teams back because of the situations it is put in. Kansas City is 29th in points scored and 30th in points allowed but a much better eighth in total offense and 15th in total defense which clearly shows how turnovers can skew things. The Raiders are not opportunistic on defense though.

This has been the case for a while now as Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a turnover margin of -1.5 per game or worse. Also, Oakland is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 or more ppg on the season. Kansas City meanwhile is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road loss by two or more touchdowns while head coach Romeo Crennel is 16-3 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (238) Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta comes into this week as the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL as the Falcons are 6-0 and coming off their bye week. The bye arguably came at a very bad time for Atlanta as it was riding a lot of momentum with their six wins to open the season and now they have to travel and face a team that is in desperate need of a win. Atlanta is 3-0 on the road and overall the schedule it has played is ranked dead last in the NFL in strength. This will be the toughest test to date.

There have been a few changes for the Eagles as they come out of their bye week. Most notably, they have a new defensive coordinator as Juan Castillo was let go and replaced by Todd Bowles. The defense wasn't horrible though as the Eagles have surrendered 20.8 ppg, 11th fewest among NFL defenses. They've given up 226.3 passing ypg and 104.5 rushing ypg, both of which are 15th in the league. A lot of the issues was with the offense turning the ball over and giving the opponents short fields.

After last season's high expectations, the Eagles came in with high expectations again this year and once again, they are not coming through. After a last second loss to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia blew another lead and lost to Detroit in overtime so the bye week was excellent timing. As mentioned, turnover have been the big issue but the case can be made for the other side as well now as the Falcons have turned the ball over five times over their last three games.

None of the Falcons

Chicago picked up a big divisional win on Monday night against the Lions but it really was a game that it should have lost. The Bears went down the field on their first drive and scored a touchdown, their only time they were able to find the endzone and the defense had to bail them out again. Detroit shot itself in the foot as it came away empty in its first three attempts in the redzone, twice turning it over, so the Bears were fortunate in that regard. After that big win, getting up for the Panthers will be tough.

While the Bears moved to 5-1, the Panthers fell to 1-5 after a loss to the Cowboys. It has been a tough season for Carolina to pick up wins but it's not like it hasn't been competitive. The Panthers have lost four of their five games by six points or less including both games played on the road. They made a move this week as they fired their general manager to try and provide some sort of spark and at this point, a change like that is beneficial. Look for a very inspired effort this week.

The Bears defense is allowing a paltry 62.7 quarterback rating, the lowest average rating in the league. However, taking a look at the quarterbacks they have faced shows they have played some of the most immobile quarterbacks in the league. Cam Newton brings a different element to the game as his ability to get away from pressure and get downfield is a great way to loosen up that defense. As long as his attitude is in the right direction, he remains a very dangerous quarterback.

Chicago's offense struggled against the Lions and this is not a very good offense right now. The Bears may have the eighth highest amount of points scored on average but they are just 22nd in total offense as they have mustered more than 360 total yards only twice. Taking advantage of opportunities coming from turnovers has been the difference so if that dries up, so will the points scored on offense. Carolina gave it away five time against the Giants but have only eight turnovers in its other five games.

Speaking of turnovers, Chicago is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a game where it won the turnover battle by four or more. Also, the Bears fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are +2.5 or more in turnover margin after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going against a team creating fewer than 1.25 tpg. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile Carolina is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (233) Carolina Panthers

We went against Oregon St. last week but it was able to muster just enough offense to come away with the 14-point win at home over Utah. This is a great story as the Beavers try to open 7-0 for the first time in school history Saturday night when they take on the Huskies at CenturyLink Field. They came into the season picked to finish last in their division but are now making noise in the National Championship talks. It won't last long though and I see it coming to an end here.

Ever since defeating Stanford at home on a Thursday night a month ago, the Huskies have lost three straight games with two of those being absolute blowouts on the road. Washington did hold tough at home against USC in-between those games however and it has proven to be a tough team in its temporary home away from home. The Huskies are getting a lot of respect here as this line is lower than expected but this is getting a lot of the action on this square number the favorite way.

The Washington offense has had its share of problems this season as it is ranked 103rd overall and 103rd in scoring. The Huskies have averaged 17.3 ppg and turned the ball over 12 times in the last three games and the biggest disappointment has been quarterback Keith Price who is having a down year and who has thrown two interceptions in the each of the Huskies last three games. Something says he bounces back here though against a Beavers team that is 106th in the nation in passing defense.

Oregon St. will welcome back quarterback Sean Mannion, who will be making his first start since undergoing meniscus surgery on Oct. 10. Personally I think it may be rather soon as the Beavers were doing well with Cody Vaz. Mannion could show some rust here and he will be facing a team that can definitely slow him down. Washington's pass defense ranks second in the Pac 12 and 19th nationally, allowing just 184.6 ypg and if they can keep him in check, they will find a way to win.

The Huskies are playing with revenge as they lost in Corvallis last season by 17 points as favorites. This could be the start of the turnaround as the meat of the schedule is gone and the remaining games are all winnable. Washington is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when coming off a game played on the road while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 37 or more points in its previous game. Oregon St. meanwhile is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (180) Washington Huskies

After several years of success, Southern Mississippi has fallen on some hard times. The Golden Eagles had won at least seven games every year since 2002 but that will be broken this season as they are currently ay 0-7 on the year. It has been a quick and hard fall as there have been some close losses but those have been overshadowed by some blowout losses. They are coming off their worst loss of the season last week at home by 35 points against Marshall and are playing with no confidence.

Rice meanwhile is 2-6 on the season and it will have to win out to try and become bowl eligible and it is actually not that far-fetched as the remaining schedule is not hard at all. It has to start here however as the Owls need to take it one game at a time. They have been very competitive of late as three of their last four losses have been by a combined 11 points with two of those taking place on the road. This offense has the potential to break out in a big way here.

Southern Mississippi was supposed to take a step back as it lost its head coach and 12 starters including its quarterback and two top receivers. Not many saw this coming though as both the offense and the defense have regressed considerably. The highest point total on offense this season is 31 points and that took two overtimes to accomplish so the Golden Eagles have not scored more than 24 points in regulation. Conversely, they have allowed 40 or more points four times.

The Owls defense has not played up to par but they did a great job last week against a tough Tulsa offense and prior to that, allowed a total of 28 points and 484 total yards in their previous two games. They have been lit up for over 600 yards three times but no need to worry about that here as Southern Mississippi has surpassed 400 yards on offense only once. Rice will also be looking for some payback after getting doubled up last year in Hattiesburg 48-24 and was outgained 654-229.

Rice is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams allowing 425 or more ypg so it has been able to take care of business at home when it is supposed to. Also, under head coach David Bailiff, the Owls are 9-0 ATS at home against teams allowing 4.75 or more ypc. In addition, we play on teams coming off a conference loss by seven points or less going up against an opponent off an loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. This situation is 45-17 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Rice Owls

Both Louisville and Cincinnati are two of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Big East Conference so this is a big game for both sides. The Cardinals are undefeated overall at 7-0 following a close win over South Florida last week. The offense continues to pile on the points as Louisville is averaging 32.4 ppg. On the other side, Cincinnati was undefeated until it lost at Toledo last week to fall to 5-1. That was the Bearcats first road game of the season.

Both games last week involving these two teams stayed under the total and we are seeing a big adjustment in the over/under this week and it adds value going the other way. It is even more prevalent when looking at the explosiveness of these offenses as Cincinnati is averaging 6.8 yppl while Louisville is averaging 6.1 yppl and to put those in perspective, one of the best offenses is the country, Oregon, is averaging 6.4 yppl. We should see some big plays on both sides here.

The defenses on both sides are pretty average even though the rankings are somewhat high. Louisville is ranked 31st in total defense which doesn't look very bad at all. However the Cardinals have played teams ranked 113th, 20th, 70th, 110th, 49th and 65th in total offense so the majority has been bad. The two best offenses they have faced are North Carolina (20th) and Pittsburgh (49th) and those two teams put up 34 and 35 points respectively against them. Cincinnati comes in 24th in total offense.

On the other side, the Bearcats defense is a respectable 37th in the country but they also have not played many offenses that can light it up. They only allowed 10 points against Pittsburgh but that was their first game of the season and Pittsburgh's second game and the Panthers have been much better since then. The best offense Cincinnati has faced was last week against Toledo and the Rockets put up 29 points which is the most it has allowed all season. Louisville has been average but does score a lot of points.

I do not think the defenses on either side has what it takes to completely shut down its opponent. Both teams possess mobile quarterbacks that can win with the arm or legs so they will be difficult to contain. Both teams fall into a simple yet solid situation as we play the over in conference games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 168-98 (63.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. We should see a very entertaining game Friday with plenty of points. 10* Over (107) Cincinnati Bearcats/(108) Louisville Cardinals

Minnesota came away with the victory this past Sunday and we will ride the Vikings once again. They did not play well at all against the Cardinals as they were outgained by 147 total yards but were fortunate to turn an interception into a touchdown return and the defense was able to hold tough when needed. The victory moved Minnesota to a perfect 4-0 at home and playing at home again this week is a big edge. The Vikings have a tough game at Seattle on deck which makes this one pretty big.

The Buccaneers are coming off a tough home loss against the Saints as they blew an early 14-0 lead and dropped to 2-4 in the process. Tampa Bay definitely could have a better record at this point as all four of its losses have come by a touchdown or less including both games on the road at Dallas and New York. Those scores were deceiving however as the Buccaneers were outgained by a total of 428 yards as it was pretty clear the home team was not prepared. That will not be the case this week.

The Minnesota defense is once again playing at a high level as it is ranked ninth overall and sixth in points allowed. The Vikings have allowed more than 14 points only once in their last five games and that run should continue here. The Tampa Bay offense is ranked 11th in points scored but just 20th in total offense as it has been fortunate to be on the wrong side of the turnover battle just once in six games. Playing efficient on offense is important but the Buccaneers have not taken advantage.

The Thursday setup has favored home teams when their last game was at home as the travel aspect is a big advantage seeing they do not have to do it. A short week is hard enough but when a travel day is thrown in, it takes its toll on the road team. The home team has won the last four Thursday night games and five of the six on the season. The edge is even greater in this matchup as Tampa Bay has not left home since September 23rd as it has played three home games with a bye mixed in as well.

The Vikings will be playing with revenge after losing at home last season to Tampa Bay. It was a tough loss on top of it as the Vikings blew a 17-0 lead and allowed the winning touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining so they will be out for payback. They fall into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Minnesota Vikings

Lafayette put up a dud last week for us as it opened up a 20-6 lead over North Texas in the third quarter only to get outscored 24-3 the rest of the way and lost its first conference game of the season. The Cajuns are one of five teams sitting at 2-1 and one of six teams that trails first place La-Monroe by a single game in the SBC standings. With the lackluster effort late in the game last week, I expect Lafayette to again come out very strong and extend it for a whole game this time around.

The Red Wolves have won two straight games to improve to 2-1 in the conference after an opening loss against Western Kentucky. The last victory came against South Alabama which is 1-2 in the SBC and 2-5 overall, and it was far from impressive as Arkansas St. won by just a touchdown and was outgained by 59 total yards to a team that is ranked near the bottom of most everything. This is still a talented Red Wolves team but it looks to be pretty overmatched this time around.

Arkansas St. was a perfect 8-0 in the Sun Belt Conference a season ago and a lot of the games were not even close. The Red Wolves dominated throughout as they led the conference in total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense. With those rankings, team will not lose very often. Fast forward to this season and while the rankings are still good, they are far from the same as Arkansas St. is ranked third, fourth, third and sixth respectively in those conference rankings.

Last season, the Red Wolves won this meeting at home and it was a late enough meeting that essentially knocked Lafayette out of the Sun Belt Conference race. The Cajun have not forgotten. "It carries over a lot," starting cornerback Jemarlous Moten said. "We kind of owe them from last year, because we thought, well, we know, we were better last year. Even this year we know we're better." Motivation plays a big part and that will be the case tonight with the Cajuns on their home field.

Lafayette is averaging 6.1 yppl on offense including 6.3 yppl at home and that is bad news for the Red Wolves as they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams averaging 5.9 yppl or better. They are also 3-20 ATS in their last 23 games overall against teams averaging 4.75 or more ypc. Lafayette meanwhile is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss while the Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. 10* (102) Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

This is a big divisional game for both sides as Detroit and Chicago look to keep pace in the very competitive NFC North. Both Minnesota and Green Bay won yesterday making the Lions the team needing to make the biggest jump as they currently are two games behind the leaders. Last week's victory at Philadelphia was a huge one as not only was it a big come from behind victory but it gave Detroit some much needed confidence going forward which seemed to have been missing.

The Bears are off to a great start as a loss in Green Bay has been their only blemish. Chicago has been doing it with defense as it has allowed a league-low 71 points through its first five games. The schedule has been suspect however as the only two difficult teams is has faced have been the Cowboys and Packers, both of which are underachieving, and the Bears were outgained in both of those. The Bears have won all four of their games by 16 or more points which is helping us with the line here.

The Lions can be tossed into that underachieving group as a 2-3 start is not what was expected coming into the season. The thing is they have not played that badly as a road loss to Tennessee came in overtime despite them outgaining the Titans by 146 total yards and then the next week, Detroit lost to Minnesota at home by a touchdown despite outgaining the Vikings by 114 total yards. Detroit is second in the NFL in total offense and ninth in total defense which are both extremely solid.

We can also make the argument that the Bears are overachieving. The defense is very strong as mentioned as they are third overall and fist in fewest points allowed. That has helped the offense to score the second most points heading into Week Seven but also helping is fact are turnovers which have led to short field for the offense. Despite scoring a lot of points, Chicago is just 20th in the league in total offense and while Detroit gained momentum from last week, the Bears lost theirs because of the bye week.

The Lions have giving up a ton of points because of turnovers but they fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems with a defense that is allowing 27 or more ppg. This situation is 66-35 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. When facing a strong defense, the Lions have flourished as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 70 or fewer ypg on the ground. Chicago meanwhile is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. 10* (437) Detroit Lions

The Vikings are coming off a tough road loss at Washington despite outgaining the Redskins 421-361 and that even includes Robert Griffin III's 76-yard run so Minnesota had them bottled up most of the game. Three turnovers did them in though and now they are sitting at 4-2, a half-game back of the Bears in the NFC North. Minnesota heads home for this game and then a quick turnaround for a Thursday game at home so coming off a loss, this is a much needed game.

Arizona has dropped two straight games and I will continue to fade the Cardinals as they are still being overvalued. Early money went against them which has driven this line from +4 to +5.5 and should keep going in that direction although that probably will not happen until later in the week. Getting the best possible line right now is the way to go so getting this out early is imperative. The Vikings are 3-0 at home and while wins over the Jaguars and Titans are not impressive, the win over the 49ers makes up for those.

The Cardinals offense has been horrible this season and to their defense, injuries have played a big role. They have no running game as their top two backs are out for the season while there has been no stability at quarterback due to injuries as well. Buffalo had allowed 97 points and 1,201 yards against the Patriots and 49ers in its two previous games but Arizona was only able to muster 16 points and 332 yards. The Cardinals are ranked 26th in scoring offense and 31st in total offense.

The Minnesota defense is again a dominant force as the Vikings are ranked ninth in scoring and eighth overall and last week they held the Redskins to their second lowest output on the season. The best work has come at home where the last two games Minnesota has allowed 267 and 280 yards to the Titans and 49ers respectively. On the other side, quarterback Christian Ponder has been solid with a quarterback rating of 92.4 which is ninth in the NFL but the rushing games is still a very potent unit.

The issue the past week was redzone struggles as three times the Vikings drove deep into Redskins' territory during the first quarter and three times they settled for field goals, each missed opportunity more disappointing than the previous one. That is something they should turn around at home. Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game while the Cardinals are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (418) Minnesota Vikings

Houston has taken some early money and this line has risen slightly from its opener as the Texans look to rebound from their first loss of the season. They were manhandled by Green Bay on Sunday night, getting outgained by over 100 total yards, and even the final margin of 18 points was not as close as the game played out as Houston was able to make it that respectable with a blocked punt for a touchdown late in the game. The Texans have their bye next week so a rebound performance is imperative.

The Ravens won their fourth straight game with a victory over the Cowboys that was pretty much handed to them. Dallas had a chance to tie the game but dropped a two-point conversion and after recovering the onside kick, the Cowboys missed a 51-yard field goal with two second left. Three of the four wins during this stretch have come by three points or less and two of those were decided on last second field goal attempts that both went Baltimore's way. The Ravens also go into their bye but the spot is much tougher.

The win over the Cowboys was a big one for Baltimore as it kept it in first place in the AFC North by two games over the Bengals and two and a half games over the Steelers but in the grand scheme of things, it could be considered a loss. The Ravens lost linebacker Ray Lewis for the rest of the season with a torn triceps but not maybe even more important is that they also lost cornerback Lardarius Webb for the season with a torn ACL. That one will be extremely tough to overcome.

The Ravens defense was third in the NFL last season but they have dropped to 26th in total defense this season so the injuries have only added to the problems. The Texans have to take advantage as they have been just going through the motions in their last two home games against Tennessee and Green Bay as they gained just 297 and 321 total yards respectively. They are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and will certainly need to take advantage of the matchup edges in this one.

The Texans first ever trip to the playoffs ended in Baltimore last season as they lost by a touchdown despite winning the yardage battle 315-227. Turnovers were the difference and now it will be revenge time for Houston. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in two straight games while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 conference games while Baltimore is 0-4 in its last four games against conference opponents. 10* (422) Houston Texans

Washington won on Sunday at home against Minnesota and now it heads to New York to play its first divisional game of the season. The Redskins are 3-3 to start the season which isn't horrible after a disappointing 5-11 season a year ago. Each of the three losses were by a touchdown or less so not only are they playing well but they are staying competitive in the games they are losing. Only five of their 11 losses last season were by a touchdown or less and the confidence building win over the Vikings moves forward.

The Giants are also coming off a victory and theirs was a big one as they defeated San Francisco on the road in the NFC Championship rematch. That was a huge win and it puts New York in arguably the spot as the team to now beat in the NFL. A trip out west and a return home is a tough grind and the Giants could be in for a letdown here despite this being a divisional game against a longtime rival. This is a better Washington team the Giants are facing than last year yet are favored by more this season.

Robert Griffin III is proving to be a great pick for Washington as he is coming off another great game where he was responsible for three touchdowns. He is coming off his third highest quarterback rating but he has yet to put up a bad game which is rare for a rookie. Overall he has a 100.5 rating which is third best in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. The Giants defense put up another solid game but they are still 19th in the NFL in total defense.

Washington has struggled on defense all season as defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has lost top pass-rusher Brian Orakpo, one of his top run-stoppers in Adam Carriker, and his anticipated starting strong safety in Brandon Meriweather. He came through with a great gameplan against Minnesota as the bend-don't-break philosophy panned out as the Redskins held the Vikings without a touchdown for nearly three and a half quarters. This will certainly be another challenge but far from undoable.

The rushing game for Washington will come into play here. Griffin had a 76-yard touchdown run against the Vikings so the numbers got skewed somewhat but this is still one of the best rushing teams in the NFL as the unit is ranked second overall and second in per carry average at 5.2 ypc. Washington is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game while the Giants are 3-11 in their last 14 home games after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. 10* (427) Washington Redskins

A lot of people will be down on West Virginia now after not only losing but getting thumped at Texas Tech last week. The Mountaineers fell behind early and could not recover as the defense was once again the liability, allowing 676 total yards to the Red Raiders. Obviously things will not get any easier here but the situation does as they were coming off a big road win at Texas prior to last week and now they head back home where they are averaging over 56 ppg.

Kansas St. got it done last week and it was again ugly. The Wildcats won by six points and it was one of the few times they did not dominate turnover margin and when that is not in their favor, they come back to the competition. The same goes for yardages. Three wins by wide margins saw them outgain their opponents by just 75, 20 and 87 yards and while the score is obviously the most important, winning games with similar yardage margins is not going to keep happening as the breaks will eventually go the other way.

The Wildcats are ranked fourth in the initial BCS Rankings and it really is based on smoke and mirrors ass they are not dominating in anything. They are ranked 46th in total offense and 31st in total defense and while those are very solid rankings, they are not typical rankings of a team that is considered a top five team in the country. They do a lot of things well and they are very well coached but once they hit a team that can take advantage, they will be in trouble and that is the case here.

West Virginia cannot play defense, or at least in the Big XII it hasn't been able to. However each offense it has faced thus far is better than what Kansas St. brings to the table. The Mountaineers have not been able to stop the pass but they have a much stronger rushing defense and that puts strength against strength this week so West Virginia will not be at a significant disadvantage at any spot like it has been in he past. Offensively, they will be able to move at will.

The Mountaineers have covered their last four games after a loss and they can put themselves in very good position with a victory here because arguably the two toughest games remaining are both at home, including a game against Oklahoma which is likely going to go a long way in deciding the Big XII. We play on teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 57-25 ATS (69.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (370) West Virginia Mountaineers

We won with TCU last week against Baylor and a lot of that play had to do with the fact the Horned Frogs had a full week to prepare with their new quarterback Trevone Boykin. He had a monster game and with even more preparation I expect him to get even better. TCU is back home and it should be itching to grab a victory after losing against Iowa St. in its last home game which came just a couple days after starting quarterback Casey Pachall was suspended from the team.

After losing at home against Oklahoma, Texas Tech responded with a great effort against West Virginia and pull off one of the big upsets of last weekend. I expect that to prove to be a big letdown this week and even though momentum is big, the Red Raiders are hitting the road which has been a big issue over the years. The numbers look great for Texas Tech but prior to Oklahoma, it has played no one and while the win over the Mountaineers was huge, we have yet to see a big road effort against a quality team.

The loss to the Cyclones took TCU out of the rankings after a 4-0 start to the season but its upset win last week inched it closer in getting back into the top 25. The suspension of Pachall was big at the time but it is old news and this team is arguably better with him off the team at this point. We say that because non-team players can bring the rest of the team down and rallying around each other can go a long way. Is there a chance for a letdown this week? It is always there but the stakes are too big for it to happen.

While the offense is fine with Boykin at the helm, it is the defense we need to highlight. The Horned Frogs held Baylor to 21 points which was by far the Bears lowest offensive output on the season. Overall TCU is 15th in total defense and 11th in scoring defense so the Red Raiders will certainly have a challenge this week. Texas Tech has had two bad games on offense and those came against Oklahoma and Iowa St. which are 14th and 33rd respectively in total defense so its struggles against the better units.

This line opened at TCU -2.5 and I loved it at that number. Through the first 48 hours, the roles have switched and the Red Raiders are now favored by that same amount so the love has grown. This switch has put the Horned Frogs into a great situation where we play against road favorites in conference games, off a win by 10 points or more as a home underdog. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, TCU is 14-4 ATS in it last 18 games when the line is between +3 and -3. 10* (362) TCU Horned Frogs

We won with Virginia Tech last week over Duke as the Hokies spotted the Blue Devils a 20-0 lead and then put up 41 unanswered points to grab the blowout win. The Hokies were coming off two straight losses and were heading home at the perfect time to make sure that skid came to an end. The home team remained a perfect 7-0 in their games this season as Virginia Tech comes in with a 0-3 record on the highway, losing to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and North Carolina while getting outgained by 445 combined yards.

Clemson got the week off last week following consecutive dominating performances against Boston College and Georgia Tech and a rest was arguably needed. Because of the loss to Florida St., the Tigers do not control their own destiny so they need to simply take care of business and let the card fall where they may. The Tigers remain one of the best offensive teams in the country as they are 13th overall and 11th in scoring and face a defense that is playing well below its standards.

The Tigers have been more efficient and more explosive this season on offense as Clemson is averaging 85 more ypg on offense this season compared to last year and this has come by running about 82 plays per game, up only slightly over the 81 they ran last year. Despite all of the weapons Clemson has in the passing game, Virginia Tech defensive line coach Charley Wiles believes stopping the run , whether it be Andre Ellington or Tajh Boyd, is the most crucial part of holding the Tigers in check.

The Clemson defense was a major concern at the end of last year, so much so that the Tigers changed defensive coordinators in the offseason. It has not been a very smooth transition but to their credit, the Tigers have faced a majority of offenses that are ranked very high overall and in scoring. Virginia Tech is not one of those as the Hokies are 68th overall, 78th in rushing, 73rd in passing efficiency and 54th in scoring. The Hokies erupted last week but we won't see that again.

The Hokies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after a win by 17 or more points and they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 82-42 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (344) Clemson Tigers

This is just the third true home game for Syracuse against FBS opponents as it has split the first two. Losing by a point against Northwestern and then winning by a point against Pittsburgh. Overall the Orange are 2-4 on the season but they could be a lot better as turnovers have really held them back. Despite the losing record, Syracuse is outgaining opponents by 110.2 ypg which is a huge variance for teams with a losing record. Case in points, despite losing last week at Rutgers, the Orange won the stats by 181 yards.

Connecticut also comes in with a losing record as it is 3-4 on the season and the losses have been tight as two came by three points while another came by six points. The Huskies have dropped two in a row and last week's home loss against Temple was a devastating one which definitely hurts coming into this game. Connecticut is outgaining opponents on average but that is because of a defense that is playing over its head and against some very weak offenses.

The Huskies have faced four offenses that are currently ranked 97th or worst so while they comes in as the nations sixth ranked defense, the schedule has had a lot to do with it. This will be the most potent offense it has seen this season as Syracuse is ranked 39th in the country overall. Scoring is down because of the aforementioned turnovers so avoiding those will be important. The Orange have put up offensive totals of 596, 455, 549 and 418 and three of those were against defenses ranked 54th, 25th and 18th.

The Syracuse defense has quietly been playing very well. The stop unit is ranked 28th in the country and while the scoring defense is not ranked as high, it again comes down to turnovers and opponents playing on a short field. Connecticut can't move the ball or score points as it is ranked 107th in total offense and 109th in scoring offense and the Huskies have put up 244 totals yards or less three times. They managed only 372 yards against Massachusetts which has allowed over 500 yards to four other opponents.

This game marks the return of head coach Paul Pasqualoni to his old school and Syracuse will not be bringing out the welcome wagon. He is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog with the Huskies and going back to his days with the Orange, he is 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of a touchdown or less. Syracuse is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards so it has been able to carry the momentum forward. The Orange puts an end to the five-game series losing streak tonight. 10* (310) Syracuse Orange

I played on Oregon in its last game against Washington and won but that was more of a play against the Huskies which were coming off a big home upset win over Stanford in their previous game. The Ducks are a very solid team no doubt and they debuted in the BCS rankings at number three but I'm still not totally sold just yet. Oregon has yet to be tested, especially on the road where it has traveled just once and that came at Washington St. which hung around too long against a team with the supposed caliber of Oregon.

Arizona St. is 5-1 with the only loss coming at Missouri by four points. The Sun Devils sit atop the Pac 12 South Division with a 3-0 record and while it can be argued that they have not played anyone tough yet, which I will not disagree with, they dominated all three of those games, winning the yardage battle by an average of 255 ypg which is very impressive. This team is clicking right now and they face the Ducks at the perfect time as they are hot and an outright upset is far from out of the question.

What makes the Sun Devils so dangerous is their offense which they have picked up on quickly in head coach Todd Graham's first season. They are averaging 479 ypg and 40.5 ppg so they can definitely keep up with Oregon in this game. What makes this team really special however is the defense as Arizona St. is ranked eighth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense and it leads the Pac 12 in both categories. This is the type of unit that can slow the Ducks down enough to not allow a runaway.

While the Oregon defense gets all of the attention, it is the defense that has stepped up compared to last season. The Ducks are allowing 359.8 ypg and 20 ppg which are just slightly higher from the defense that went to the BCS Championship. Still, it is ranked only 43rd overall and fifth in the Pac 12 and that is with playing a very weak schedule thus far. They yielded 402 yards against Washington St. in their only road game and this trip is going to be much more of a challenge on that side of the ball.

Even though this is Graham's first year as head coach, he has been great in these situations at his other stops as he is 12-2 ATS in his 14 games as a home underdog and 10-2 ATS in his 12 games against teams averaging 6.25 or more yppl. Arizona St. meanwhile is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games after two or more consecutive straight up wins so momentum has proven to be big. Oregon meanwhile is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games after a win by 20 or more points. 10* (306) Arizona St. Sun Devils

The 49ers laid an egg at home against the Giants and that makes this spot so much better for them. They were dominant in their previous two games against the Jets and Bills as they allowed just three points while scoring a combined 70 points. It was just the opposite in their NFC Championship rematch against the Giants but now they are in a bounceback spot in a divisional game where they currently sit in a three-way tie with the Cardinals and the Seahawks so we will see a very inspired effort.

Seattle continues to be very impressive at home as it is now 3-0 with big wins over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. That is certainly a very impressive and to be honest, the Seahawks feasibly could be 6-0 right now as losses against Arizona and St. Louis could have gone the other way. The fact of the matter though is coming off a last second comeback win at home and travelling on a short week spells disaster especially against a team that is pissed off.

We saw a Seattle letdown after its last home win as it went into St. Louis and lost to the Rams as road favorites. Granted, the number is much different this time around but the situation is as well. Not only are the Seahawks in a difficult travel spot but facing a team coming off a loss makes it more of a challenge. Seattle is coming off a road win in its last game but that was at Carolina so the step up in class is huge. The Seahawks have had a big home field edge over the year and it is evident this year but the road is difficult.

The Thursday setup has favored home teams when their last game was at home as the travel aspect is a big advantage seeing they do not have to do it. A short week is hard enough but when a travel day is thrown in, it takes its toll on the road team. The home team has won the last three Thursday night games and four of the five on the season. This is the second time we have the spot with a team at home coming off a home loss with the first being the Packers taking out the Bears after losing to San Francisco.

San Francisco is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a loss as a favorite and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games overall. Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of fewer than nine points and coming off a win when playing a team coming off a loss as a favorite. Also, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers

Three of the last four Monday night games have stayed below the total and that is just fine with the bookmakers as there is always heavy action on the over in these primetime games. Because both Denver and San Diego are coming of high scoring games once again, we are getting value based on this total being inflated. The early action came in on the under which has brought the number down slightly but not enough to hurt the play as we are likely going to see the number go back up once it gets closer to gametime.

The Broncos lost a high profile game at New England last week and it was the third time this season that their game went over the total. It was also the third time that the game went over because of a late Denver touchdown. They scored with under two minutes left to go over against Pittsburgh, they scored with three minutes left to go over against Houston and they scored with six minutes left go over against the Patriots. All three can be considered garbage scores and all three have added to the value of a low scoring game.

San Diego has now played two straight games that have surpassed the total. The Chargers went way over the number in Kansas City and the last game snuck over because of a late field goal depending on when the total was taken. This week's over/under is slightly less than the game against the Saints but not by much and these last two totals have been the highest they have had all season. The last game San Diego played at home was against Atlanta and the total of 47 was not close to being touched.

While both teams are known on the surface as good offensive teams, the defenses are not that bad. Denver is 13th in total defense while San Diego is 11th in total defense. Both teams are coming off their worst defensive efforts of the season so we can see both rebounded on that side of the ball this week. The Chargers are 6-0 to the under in their last six home games after a game where 50 or more points were scored while going 11-3 to the under in their last 14 home games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl last game.

Obviously Denver is a different team this year with Peyton Manning under center so past history can give us some flawed information but looking at the league as a whole, we often see divisional games being played closer to the vest thus creating more lower scoring games. San Diego is 6-0 to the under in its last six divisional home games while Denver is 4-0 to the under in its last four divisional games. I expect those to remain perfect as should see a much lower scoring game than what the total is telling us. 10* Under (233) Denver Broncos/(234) San Diego Chargers

The Jets are coming off a tough loss Monday night against Houston as they had opportunities to get the job done but mistakes once again did them in. they have dropped two straight games, both at home, against two of the elite teams in the league. This is their third straight home game and if ever there was a must win spot, this is it. Falling to 2-4 before heading for a big divisional game at New England is something they cannot let happen and in this situation, they won't.

The Colts meanwhile are coming off an improbable win at home against Green Bay. They trailed by 18 points at halftime but were able to mount the comeback and eventually won the game in the final minute. It was a tough week for Indianapolis with everything that went on with their head coach and providing the win in Chuck Pagano's honor was enormous. Now the Colts are in a huge emotional letdown and while confidence is sky high, they will not have enough in the tank come this Sunday.

A lot of positives can be taken from the Colts victory but it was far from a perfect performance. The Indianapolis offense was pretty pedestrian to start the game, failing to score a first half touchdown while registering just three points. It was a different team in the second as the offense opened things up while the defense shut down the Packers offense for the most part in the second half. A lot of that can be blamed on Green Bay though as something is just not right with the unit.

The Jets defense played very well against Houston, allowing only 209 yards through the air which was very solid with Darrelle Revis out for the season. New York was gashed by Arian Foster who ran for 152 yards but it will not have to worry much around the rushing game this weekend. Donald Brown has a good game but the Colts bring in the 19th ranked rushing offense. Andrew Luck showed why he is going to be a superstar but we will not see a repeat performance.

It can be argued the Jets come out flat following their Monday night games but they have been solid in these spots, going 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games following a Monday game the previous week. Indianapolis meanwhile is 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games against losing teams and we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more ypg over their last two games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (212) New York Jets

Detroit is coming off its bye week and it came at the best possible time. The Lions entered their week off on a three-game losing streak and they feasibly had a chance to win the last two games. The last game against Minnesota they were hurt by two special teams touchdowns as they outgained the Vikings by 114 yards. Detroit outgained Tennessee by 146 yards prior to that but lost in overtime. This has turned into a very big game with a divisional contest on deck at Chicago.

The Eagles were involved in yet another close game as the lost to the Steelers on a last second field goal. It was the fourth game that was decided by two points or less and turnovers were the story once again as Philadelphia gave it up twice while failing to create any turnovers on defense. To their credit, the Eagles won three of those four close games but the loss to the Steelers stung. Bouncing back at home will be tough as Philadelphia has proven it cannot be trusted as a favorite.

The Lions came into the season as a consensus overrated team and now sitting at 1-3, those opinions look to be have been true. As mentioned, they have not played bad though as they are a couple plays away of being .500 at worst. There have been too many miscommunications and too many missed assignments on the offensive line so the week provided a good time to shore up some of these mental issues. The offense is still one of the best in football and should again have success here.

Defensively, the Lions have an opportunity to take advantage of the Eagles problems with giving up the ball. Detroit was one of the leading turnover-makers in football last season and it needs to get back to that to take some of the pressure off the offense of needing to think it has to simply outscore opponents. The Lions still possess a very solid defensive line and disrupting the Eagles offense, namely Michael Vick, will go a long way. His game provides the turning point.

The Eagles are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games as they remain an extremely overvalued team. Detroit meanwhile is 4-1 ATS in its last five game as scoring less than 15 points it is previous game which includes an outright win in its only spot in that situation last season. Also, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are coming off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (219) Detroit Lions

We have an early revenge situation for the Browns which are still looking for their first win of the season. Cleveland remains the only winless team in the NFL but I still think the value is on the Browns this week and that is based on the fact they do not have a win yet. The Bengals were favored by seven points in that first meeting so based on the change of venue they should be a slight underdog here but the linesmakers were obviously forced to make them the favorites here.

Cleveland jumped on the Giants 14-0 early on Sunday but the defense was unable to hold back the New York offense but it catches a break this week. The Browns have faced two straight uptempo offenses and both of those came on the road so a return home against Cincinnati, which is ranked 15th in total offense, gives them a shot to turn it around. They best defensive performance came in their last home game where they allowed 344 total yards to the Bills.

The Bengals are coming off a home loss against Miami which snapped their three-game winning streak. There was plenty of talk coming into the season that Cincinnati would take a step backward and while the three-game winning streak put an end to that, the loss to the Dolphins has brought it right back. The Bengals have not faced any potent offense yet they are ranked 18th in total defense and 21st in scoring defense. The Browns offense has been much better than advertised so far.

Despite the fact it is winless, Cleveland is not ranked at the bottom of most power rankings as it has held its own in nearly every game with plenty of chances to win. One of those came in the first game against the Bengals as Cleveland actually outgained them and the difference ended up being an 81-yard punt return that the Bengals opened the scoring with. Cincinnati has owned the series of late with four straight win as well as victories in seven of the last eight but this spot provides a good opportunity to end it.

The Cleveland offense and defense puts it into a solid situation here as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The underdog is on a 9-1-1 ATS run in the last 11 meetings in this series. 10* (210) Cleveland Browns

I love backing teams with their backs against the wall and the public completely writing them off. This is the case for LSU which lost at Florida last week for the whole public to see. The Tigers now return home to face another tough opponent but they are in a situation that bodes very well. LSU has won 21 straight games at home and under head coach Les Miles, it is 17-1 in games following a loss, which includes a 6-0 record when a road loss is followed by a game in Tiger Stadium.

The Gamecocks had one of the more impressive wins of last weekend as they totally dominated Georgia, winning by 28 points. They have looked dominant in each of their last five games actually but the previous four contests were against some very weak foes. This is the third road games of the season and is by far the biggest test as the first two games were against Vanderbilt, which nearly resulted in a loss, and Kentucky, which is 0-3 in the SEC and 1-5 overall.

Obviously the big issue for LSU is its offense as it has scored just 18 points in its two SEC games but both of those were on the road and even though another formidable defense is coming to visit, we should see a much better effort this Saturday. Despite a horrible rushing game against Florida, the Tigers are still averaging 198.3 ypg on the ground on 4.9 ypc. Getting that going will be big as it will set up the passing game which has outgained every opponent so far this season.

LSU is 35-1 in Saturday night home games under Miles with the lone loss coming in 2009 against Florida. It needs to be noted however that the Tigers were 10-point underdogs in that game with the Gators coming in as the top ranked team in the country. Even more impressive is that the Tigers are 49-3 in Saturday night games during the Miles era no matter the location. This is one of the best home venues in the country and it is even more special under the lights.

LSU had just 42 yards rushing against Florida and the Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their 14 games under Miles after gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing last game. The tigers also fall into a great situation as we play on teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1992 and with a very manageable line to work with, that run continues. 10* (178) LSU Tigers

Coming into the season, we would have thought the record would be reversed with Duke sitting at 3-3 and Virginia Tech sitting at 5-1. But that is not the case. The Hokies opened the year ranked in the preseason top 20 but a horrible loss at Pittsburgh knocked them out of the polls and now Virginia Tech heads home following two more road losses in its last two games and it is desperate of a victory to turn the season around although any hopes of a big bowl game are gone.

Duke meanwhile has won four straight games since a blowout loss at Stanford and while it is a good run, I am not overly impressed. The first win came against NC Central out of the FCS and then came a win over Memphis, one of the worst teams in the FBS. The two most recent wins were conference victories against Wake Forest and Virginia and while wins are wins, that could be the end of the losing streak. The Blue Devils are one win away from bowl eligibility but it is going to be a tough task down the stretch.

The Blue Devils are a combined 1-39 against their remaining six opponents since the Atlantic Coast Conference expanded in 2004, including an 0-8 mark against Virginia Tech. Sure it can be argued that Duke and Virginia Tech are both different teams this year than is years past but athletic wise, the Blue Devils are still a step behind. While the Hokies will be out to get a win following two straight losses, the fact they only beat Duke by four points last year will have them extremely focused this week.

This one will come down to the Virginia Tech defense which is a shell of its former self. The home/road disparity is a big factor though. In three road games, the Hokies have allowed opposing offenses to amass 537, 495 and 533 yards. However, in three home games, they have allowed just 288, 221 and 266 yards. The level of competition has had a lot to do with it but despite being 5-1, Duke falls into that category of average. Duke has played a schedule ranked 139th in the nation which tells a lot.

Virginia Tech has been a great rebound team when heading home as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games following two or more straight up losses while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after being outgained by 125 or more yards last game. The Hokies have not lost three straight games since 2003 and since then they are 4-0 in their last four games following consecutive losses while going 3-0-1 ATS in those games. This one has blowout written all over it. 10* (128) Virginia Tech Hokies

After starting the season 0-4, Army won its first game of the season last week against Boston College but we cannot read much into it. The Eagles are having a very bad season as well and despite outrushing Boston College by 330 yards, the Black Knights won the game by only three points as it took a touchdown with less than a minute remaining to pull out the win. The victory snapped an eight-game winning streak going back to last season and while it is a confidence builder, the spot sets up badly.

Kent St. won its third straight game last week with a blowout win over Eastern Michigan to improve to 3-0 in the MAC and 4-1 overall. The situation is not ideal to go out of conference but it provides an opportunity to keep the momentum going before a big game next week against Western Michigan. The Golden Flashes are on a 8-2 run going back to last season and it coincides with a change in schemes so this team is clearly riding a big wave of momentum right now.

The big factor that Kent St. has to deal with is the rushing game of Army. The Black Knights lead the nation in rushing offense with 397.2 ypg but obviously that success has not led to them achieving many wins. The Golden Flashes are not going to stop the rushing attack but they have a stout rushing defense that is 39th in the country, allowing 125.2 ypg and that unit has improved in each of its last four games. Overall last week against Eastern Michigan, they allowed just 200 total yards of offense.

The Kent St. offense has been improving as it is coming off three straight games where it got better each time and is coming off a season high 467 yards last week. As long as the Golden Flashes can keep the execution going, there is no way they can be stopped. The Army defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing 463.8 ypg and 37.2 ppg, 103rd and 107th in the nation respectively. The Black Knights are horrible in both aspects as they are ranked 113th in rushing defense and 120th in pass efficiency defense.

Kent St. has struggled on the road throughout the years and while it has one win in each of the two previous seasons, it has already two wins this year. The Golden Flashes fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites with a winning percentage of .800 or better off three straight conference wins, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. Army is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (119) Kent St. Golden Flashes

Tennessee heads up the list of disappointing teams this season as its loss in Minnesota dropped the Titans to 1-4 on the year. There should be no excuses although the Titans have played a brutal schedule thus far as they have played the toughest slate in the league through the first five weeks of the season. Three of their five games have been on the road including the last two so a return home has come at a good time. The situation is a good one as well playing on a short week.

The reason it is good is because of the other side and that is the Steelers hitting the road on the short week. Pittsburgh was coming off its bye week the previous week and came away with a last second win over the Eagles this past Sunday in a very physical game. It took its toll as the return of Troy Polamalu was very short lived as he was re-injured and will be out this week as will LaMarr Woodley who left with a hamstring injury against the Eagles. The Steelers are now 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road.

Tennessee has the lowest average time of possession per game in the NFL (24:50) and that is due to a lack of a running game. With Chris Johnson rushing for just 210 yards through five games, the Titans have the league's 30th ranked rushing attack. Facing the Steelers may seem like a daunting task however the defense of Pittsburgh is not what it used to be as it is ranked 11th in rushing defense. The Titans have faced four teams in the top 10 in rushing defense and the only one it didn't resulted in their lone win.

Titans starting quarterback Jake Locker will miss his second straight game with soreness in his left shoulder meaning Matt Hasselbeck with be making the start. His last two games have obviously resulted in losses but he hasn't been horrible as he has completed 63 percent of his passes to go with three touchdowns. It will be up to the defense to make big strides as the unit has been gashed as Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense. Getting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger will be the number one priority.

The Titans have struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, ranking 30th in sacks per pass attempt (3.87 percent). Catching the Steelers at the right time is big though as Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games including going 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games on grass. Despite the recent struggles, the Titans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans

Last year was a rough one for Troy as it went 3-9 overall including 2-6 in the Sun Belt Conference which was the first year in five years it had not gained at least a share of the conference title. The Trojans are off to a 3-1 start this season and surprisingly, they are 3-0 on the road and 2-0 at home. Even more surprising is the fact that in the two losses, they won the yardage battle by 199 yards and 115 yards against two strong opponents in UL-Lafayette and Mississippi St.

Western Kentucky has made a name for itself already as it is 4-1 on the year and going back to last season, it is 11-2 over its last 13 games following a 0-4 start. While the run has been solid, even more impressive is the fact that it has been done as the Hilltoppers were underdogs the majority of the time as nine of those 11 wins have been outright as underdogs. They are 5-0 ATS this season and are now riding an unheard of 14-game ATS winning streak. It comes as no surprise they are favored here.

Because the Trojans had such a tough season a year ago, this is one of many conference revenge games they will be part of. Last season they lost at Western Kentucky 41-14 and the game was dominated by the Hilltoppers as much as that score shows as they outgained Troy 494-330 including a whopping 338-27 edge on the ground. The rushing variance was their biggest issue a season ago but Troy has done a much better job this year so we will not see nearly the dame variance as last year.

Troy's offense took a big hit last year as it only had four starters back and the production felt it as it averaged only 22.4 ppg on 380 ypg. This season the Trojans returned nine starters including the quarterback, the top three rushers and the top four receivers and though five games, they are averaging close to 120 more ypg than they did a season ago. The Hilltoppers defense has been strong but the averages are skewed as a game against Austin Peay saw them allow just 154 total yards.

Troy is coming off a bye week following its easy win over South Alabama and it is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games coming off a bye. In addition committed five turnovers in that last game and while it may not seem ideal, the Trojans are 10-2 ATS in their 12 home games following a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Also, we play on home teams that are coming off a conference win by 10 points or more against opponent off a win as an underdog. This situation is 136-77 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (108) Troy Trojans

With everything going on in the public eye right now, the linesmakers had no choice but to make this number as high as it is. The public will be hearing all week about how the Jets are in turmoil with a major quarterback controversy and how Houston is undefeated and looks to be the team to beat in the AFC. This is exactly the situation we love to see in a high profile game such as this as no team is as bad as it was last week and no teams is as good as it was last week.

The Jets are coming off a dreadful loss against San Francisco as they were shutout 34-0 while getting outgained 379-145. It was by far the worst offensive performance of the season and it was the first time they have been shutout since October, 2010. They followed that game up with a win and they are in a better situation here with this being the second of back-to-back home games. Despite everything that is going on, the Jets are 2-2 and sitting in a tie atop the AFC East so things could be worse.

You have to give credit to Houston for being one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL but it has had a pretty easy road to get there. The Texans have played the third easiest schedule thus far and the only real test so far was in Denver where they nearly blew a big lead. While many will not consider this a test , it will be a lot tougher than it looks right now. Houston has a three-game homestand coming up with Green Bay and Baltimore on deck so there could be a slight lookahead going forward.

With New York being a media Mecca, you won't be able to avoid some of the sport talk surrounding the Jets and the things they need to do to turn things around. They were in the wrong place at the wrong time this past Sunday as they were coming off a road win in overtime against the Dolphins while the 49ers were coming off a road loss at Minnesota. Now there is a quarterback controversy as Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrible game but we have seen it before and he responds more often than not with a big performance.

We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team averaging 27 ppg or more after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. on top of that, the Jets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games coming off a home loss and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after putting up 250 or fewer yards last game while Houston is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (436) New York Jets

The Vikings have gotten off to a terrific start this season by going 3-1 and if not for a late defensive meltdown against the Colts, they could reasonably be 4-0 right now. Minnesota has been far from dominant however and last week against Detroit, it was actually outgained by 114 total yards but used two special team touchdowns to cement the upset. Now the Vikings go from 3.5-point road underdogs to a 6-point home favorite and that is a huge swing for a pretty average team.

Tennessee was thumped again as it got hammered in Houston to fall to 1-3 on the season. The Titans were expected to make some noise this season after a solid season last year but the early schedule has been very tough to overcome. They have played the toughest schedule in the NFL as the three losses have come against teams that are a combined 9-3 and one of those came against the 2-2 Patriots which could feasibly be 4-0 right now. Tennessee now finds itself in a good situation with plenty of value on its side.

The Titans may be without quarterback Jake Locker after he separated his non-throwing shoulder against the Texans. If he cannot go, Matt Hasselbeck will get the start and wasn't horrible against Houston as he was 17-25 for 193 but two interceptions killed him as both were returned for touchdowns. This will not be a big switch. The better news is that running back Chris Johnson finally had a good game as he rushed for 141 yards on 25 carries (5.6 ypc) and he needs to build off that momentum.

Minnesota is again playing strong defense but the relatively easy schedule has helped. The Vikings have faced three offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league and while Tennessee falls into that category as well, Minnesota is in a big letdown spot here. The Vikings pulled off a huge upset against San Francisco and then pulled off a divisional road upset against the Lions so getting up for the 1-3 Titans could prove to be too much to ask for. An outright loss is far from out of the question.

Tennessee is second to last in the AFC in turnover margin which has hurt its cause immensely. The titans fall into a great league-wide situation based on that though as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a turnover margin of -1 tpg or worse after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Vikings meanwhile are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (419) Tennessee Titans

The Steelers find themselves in a good situation coming off their bye week. They are off to a 1-2 start and are game and a half behind the Bengals and Ravens in the AFC North so that makes this a very important early season game. Pittsburgh lost its opening game in Denver and then its last game in Oakland despite outgaining the Raiders by 112 total yards so it is pretty clear that the Steelers have not traveled well out west. The off week while remaining at home is the perfect spot to recharge the batteries.

The Eagles dodged a bullet last week as they won at home against the Giants thanks to a missed field goal as the game ended. Philadelphia improved to 3-1 and it is a record that is either spot on or slightly skewed. The Eagles have outgained every one of their opponents so far sp a winning record seems legitimate. However, the turnover debacle has made games closer than they should be as the three wins have come by a total of four points. After no turnovers last week, expect a reversal of that here.

The Steelers are averaging just 65 rushing ypg which is 31st in the league, and ranks above only the Raiders anemic 60.8 ypg average. The good news however is that running back Rashard Mendenhall is ready to return this week which is a big boost for the offense that is in much need of it. Pittsburgh is not going to switch its schemes though as it has been able to throw the ball with a good deal of success as they are ranked sixth in passing offense but with a more consistent running game they can get even better.

On the other side, the Pittsburgh defense has not been very good. The Steelers only have five sacks and two forced turnovers in three games and part of the reason has been injuries with James Harrison and Troy Polamalu missing time. Polamalu should be back this week which is pretty big and even though Harrison is likely sitting again, the week off provided rest for all. The Steelers still need to find a way to generate pressure and force turnovers and the young players need to start executing better.

The Steelers have been one of the better teams in the NFL coming off a bye as they have won each of the last four years, covering three of those. They have been even better coming off a loss as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a defeat. Also, they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games coming off a spread loss while going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in two straight games. 10* (414) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chiefs came up pretty small last week at home against the Chargers as they dropped to 1-3 on the season. Kansas City was coming off a big road win at New Orleans but it was unable to keep the momentum going as it turned the ball over six times and as we all know, it is impossible to win in this league with mistakes like that. The Chiefs are 0-2 at home, getting outscored by 33 points combined but what that now does is create value for this week and Kansas City is catching a very good number.

Baltimore won last Thursday at home against Cleveland and it was a very uninspiring win as it let the Browns hang around enough to almost be able to tie the game late. It was the third straight game that wasn't decided until very late and while the offense has been clicking, the defense has been a major disappointment. The Ravens have not allowed a lot of points but they are ranked 23rd in total defense which is a far cry of how good they have been over the past few years.

Despite being 1-3 on the year, the Chiefs have outgained every opponent so far and while they have not been able to turn those into wins, they are showing they are able to compete and hold their own. Converting yards into points has been the issue as Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in total offense but just 18th in scoring offense and turnovers is the reason. The Chiefs have 15 giveaways and their -13 turnover differential is easily the worst in the NFL. That will come back around.

Kansas City has given up a ton of points and turnovers are to blame as well. The Chiefs have allowed the second most points in the NFL despite being ranked a respectable 13th in total defense. Playing on a short field has killed them and over the last two games, they have allowed just 288 yards and 293 yards against two potent offenses. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 35 or more points while head coach Romeo Crennel is 15-3 ATS in his last 18 games after allowing 30 or more points.

Kansas City falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at home following a divisional game where they allowed 35 or more points so they have been a solid bounceback team. 10* (424) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a great spot for Oregon to head into its bye week with a huge victory. The Ducks are a perfect 5-0 on the season and they have yet to be tested along the way which is not going to change here. Oregon is just 1-4 against the number but the four games it did not cover was when it was favored by more than 30 points. This number is a very reasonable one and a similar spread was in play against Arizona as the Ducks were favored by 20 points and ended up winning by 49.

We won with Washington last Thursday against Stanford as it was able to punch in a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset. Even though the Huskies have had two extra days to prepare, that will not even be a factor. Washington is playing its home game off campus this year but it had a clear home field edge against the Cardinal and now it takes to the road for just the second time this year. The first road game was a forgettable one as the Huskies lost at LSU 41-3 and were outgained by 254 yards.

Coming into the season, Oregon was pegged as one of the best offensive teams in the country and it has proven that to be true. The Ducks are seventh in the country in total offense and third in scoring offense and the scary part is that they have done this by taking the pedal off the gas late in their games. The same can be said for the defense. Part of that has to do with the fact that their first three games were essentially over at halftime, leaving many backups and walk-ons to finish games.

Plain and simple, Washington cannot keep up with Oregon. The Huskies are ranked 107th in the country in total offense, including 11th in the Pac 12, and 91st in scoring offense. These ranking are inflated as Washington put up 52 points against FCS Portland St. so take that out and offense is even more inept. The Huskies defense is definitely a solid unit as they are 21st overall and 32nd in scoring. They have achieved this however by playing no offense that comes close to Oregon's explosiveness.

Two situation are in our favor as we play against road underdogs coming off a conference win as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a conference win by 10 points or more. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (348) Oregon Ducks

While Notre Dame is off to a 4-0 starts, I'm still not sold on this team. The Irish hammered Navy in Ireland to open the season and after the Midshipmen were shutout at home last week, that opening win is far from impressive. Since then, they have won three straight over three pretty solid teams but they have scored no more than 20 points in any of those games. The defense has come up huge to its credit but at this point, Notre Dame should not be laying this type of line to another quality team.

After winning its season opener at Boston College, Miami got slaughtered at Kansas St. and while it could have completely folded, it seems to have gotten stronger. The Wildcats are showing they are a solid team so while a huge loss like that is never easy to take, it at least has some validity. The Hurricanes have come back with three straight win including a gutsy win at Georgia Tech where they blew a 19-0 lead and stormed back form a 17-point deficit to win ion overtime. That is a season changing victory.

Notre Dame has yet to encounter a team with the speed that Miami possesses and that is the case on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes have not preformed that well on defense as they have allowed 32 points or more in all but one game this year and are ranked 114th in total defense. The difference though is that every team they have faced has been much better on offense and yes that includes Boston College and Bethune-Cookman. This is where the speed will make a difference.

The Hurricanes have the type of offense that can give Notre Dame fits as they have playmakers at all positions. Running back Duke Johnson has racked up 920 total yards on the season with 7 total touchdowns and he is just a freshman. Quarterback Stephen Morris threw for a school record 566 yards last week and is a duel threat. Miami is 38th in the country in scoring offense, scoring 38 or more points in four of five games, which makes this the best team that Notre Dame has faced statistically.

Miami has played flawless in these spots are it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against defenses allowing 120 or fewer rushing ypg and 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Head coach Al Golden has thrived in these situation as his teams are 9-0 ATS in his last nine games as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has had trouble over the years covering big numbers and that will be the case once again here. 10* (389) Miami Florida Hurricanes

Arkansas has certainly taken an epic fall as the Razorbacks have dropped four straight games after starting the season ranked in the top ten in the country. After losing to UL-Monroe, they were hammered at home against Alabama, lost to Rutgers and then last week were again hammered at Texas A&M. if ever there is a time to buy, this is it. Arkansas has a chance to save some face here as they are matched up against a team that it should not be losing to, no matter the situation.

Auburn was off last week following a devastating home loss against LSU two weeks ago. Even though the Tigers lost that game by just two points, they were pretty much dominated as they were outgained by 168 total yards and that was the third time they were outgained this season by 154 or more total yards. The lone victory this season came against UL-Monroe in overtime and while the argument can be made that Auburn defeated the Warhawks while Arkansas didn't, that doesn't hold water.

The problem for the Razorbacks this season is their defense as they are ranked 116th in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. Playing against Alabama and Texas A&M, which are both ranked in the top 20 in scoring offense, certainly didn't help but now they finally catch a break. Auburn has scored more than 19 points only once this season and it is ranked 113th in total offense and 114th in scoring offense so being favored by double-digits is an overreaction to the Arkansas start to the season.

The Razorbacks offense managed only 10 points combined against the Crimson Tide and the Aggies which was a surprise with their supposedly potent offense. Those two teams though are ranked first and eighth in the nation in scoring defense so there was not a lot that could have been done. Auburn is ranked just 58th in scoring defense and that is after allowing just 12 points against LSU. The Tigers defense will be tested against an offense that is ready and overdue to bust out.

For all of its problems this season, Arkansas has led in the first half during three of its four losses so it has been unable to finish and once it has fallen behind, it has seemed to give up. The chances of falling behind big here are unlikely as the Tigers do not have the team to do it this year. Arkansas is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games coming off a road loss by 21 or more points so it has been able to rebound during adversity. The Tigers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss so the same does not hold true for them. 10* (361) Arkansas Razorbacks

The last thing the public remembers about BYU was the absolute pounding it put on Hawaii last Friday on national television. They will ride that into this week as the Cougars looked unstoppable but that had a lot to do with Hawaii showing no resistance. BYU is a very good team as its two as its two losses have come by a combined four points while all of the win have been blowouts. The opposition tonight though falls into the same grouping of teams that game the Cougars their losses.

Utah St. is a very solid and probably still under the radar type of team. The Aggies are 4-1 on the season with the only loss coming at Wisconsin by just two points. Granted the Badgers are having a down year but the situation was a very tough one for Utah St. and it nearly pulled off the outright upset. The Aggies have outgained every opponent this season and they have been solid on both sides of the ball and they are ranked 40th in total offense and 11th in total defense.

BYU has struggled against teams that possess any sort of defense, which Hawaii does not have. The Cougars were held to six points against Boise St. and 21 points against Utah and the Aggies are obviously right up there. They have yielded less than 21 points in each of their first five games, and the last time that happened to start a season was in 1962. So dominant has Utah St. been to this point, it has spent all but 21 minutes, out of a total of 300, either tied or ahead of its opponents.

Offensively, the Aggies have the best player on the field in quarterback Chuckie Keeton. He is coming off a great performance last week in which he passed for 404 yards and four touchdowns and on the season he has completed 106 of 155 passes for 1,283 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Cougars defense has been better as they are fifth in the nation in total defense and fourth in scoring defense but this is easily the best offense they have seen as the other FBS teams are ranked 64th, 112th, 72nd and 114th in total offense.

Utah St. can bring the rivalry to another level with a victory on the road as the Aggies have not won in Provo since 1978 and have not beaten Utah and BYU in the same year since 1971. That means they will get the coveted Beehive Boot. The Aggies fall into a great situation as we play against teams allowing 4.2 or fewer yppl, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-6 ATS (85 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (311) Utah St. Aggies

We won by playing against USC three weeks ago as it lost outright at Stanford which put a big hit on its National Championship hopes. The Trojans were able to bounce back and defeat a pretty bad California team and now the Trojans take to the road once again where they have been anything but good. In addition to the loss against Stanford, USC allowed a bad Syracuse team to hang around for most of the game and it was actually outgained and that was on a neutral field n less.

Utah has had quite the up and down season as it has alternated wins and losses along the way. The Utes lost a tough overtime game against Utah St. on the road but bounced back with a big win against rival BYU. However the most recent game was a disaster as Utah was hammered at Arizona St. and that is the game people will remember the most heading into this game. That lopsided defeat created value for the Utes as a return home is exactly what they need.

Utah is 6-1 coming off bye weeks during head coach Kyle Whittingham's time here , which speaks to his ability to prepare and motivate his teams. He said the bye week was productive in terms of getting the players re-energized and work completed in practice. Even more important, the Utes have bounced back after big losses which also relates to the preparation. Utah is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 35 points of more and going 4-0 ATS in its last four games after a loss.

There aren't many places in the Pac 12 where the crowd plays a role in the game, but Rice-Eccles is one of those places and that should play a big factor here once again. That means disrupting the USC offense and creating turnovers which did not happen last games but under Whittingham, Utah is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after a game where it forced no turnovers. Meanwhile USC is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 games after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 10* (306) Utah Utes

We rode St. Louis to victory last week over Seattle as it was catching points at home and we will do the same this Thursday as it is again a divisional home underdog. The Rams came away with the outright win as they improved to 2-0 at home while sitting 0-2 on the road and they have already matched their win total from all of last season. The Thursday night game means a short turnaround but it is a big edge for the home teams, especially when last week was at home also, as it takes out the travel.

Arizona is one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and it is definitely the most surprising of the bunch. The Cardinals are 4-0 for the first time since 1974 and this is arguably one of the ugliest 4-0 teams we have seen in recent memory. The schedule has been somewhat of a cakewalk as three of the four games have come at home and three of the wins have come down to the final play in regulation so luck has been on their side as the Cardinals could easily be sitting at 1-3 right now.

Making the 4-0 start for Arizona even more of a farce is that it has yet to outgain a single opponent. The defense has played at a high level in keeping points off the scoreboard and despite the fact the Cardinals have the third best scoring defense in the NFL, they are just 17th in the league in total defense so their bend but don

Dallas has started the season by going low in its first three games with all of those contests going under the total. The offense has been surprisingly inconsistent as the Cowboys are 19th in the NFL in total offense and an even worse 31st in scoring offense. Facing a Bears defense does not look like the situation to turn it around however we are catching a very favorable total for tonight and it is actually the lowest the Cowboys have seen this year. The value squarely lies on the over.

Chicago meanwhile has gone under in each of its last two games as the offense was unable to do anything against the Packers two weeks ago while the defense was able to shut down the Bears last week. The defense was ranked fifth in the league in both yards and scoring heading into Week Four and that is part of the reason we are catching a low number for tonight. The numbers are skewed somewhat however as the Bears did allow 356 and 321 yards to the Colts and Packers the first two weeks.

On the other side, the Cowboys are first in the NFL in total defense, allowing only 250 ypg. They were able to hold down the potent Giants offense but that was opening week and Dallas was not tested against Seattle and the Buccaneers in the last two games. Tampa Bay had 166 yards last week including just 96 yards before its final drive of the game so while the Bears defense has been strong, the Cowboys stop unit has quietly got the job done. Things will be tougher here though.

As mentioned, the Cowboys offense has been very inconsistent and the Bears offense has been the same. The difference though is that Chicago has not been taking a conservative approach as quarterback Jay Cutler's average pass has traveled 9.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest in the league. The issue has been poor first down execution which has put them in long yardage situations on second and third down so getting that in order will help the offense immensely.

Monday nights have been low scoring so far as three of the four games have all gone under including each of the last two weeks. These nights are big for the public in betting the over and they have been stung so far but this is where we get the turnaround. The Cowboys are 18-8-3 to the over in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Bears are 16-7 to the over in their last 23 games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg. 10* Over (231) Chicago Bears/(232) Dallas Cowboys

We used the Patriots as one of our top plays last week and they came through with a cover. They lost outright however and that actually sets us up again for another strong situation this week. New England has lost consecutive games in the regular season only three times since 2003 prior to this season. The Patriots bounced back with a win in each of those previous follow up games, winning by a combined score of 92-26. This is the first time New England has had a losing records since 2003 when it opened 0-1.

Buffalo has looked impressive the last two weeks with big wins following the season opening blowout loss against the Jets. Taking nothing away from their response but the Bills last two wins have come against some pretty weak opposition and while they are playing with confidence, this is going to be a huge test. Buffalo has improved in almost all areas and it will continue to give a lot of teams fits but this will not be one of those as the Bills caught the Patriots at the wrong time.

The Patriots defense was expected to be a much stronger unit this season but it regressed last week against the Ravens and the Bills offense will certainly provide a big test. However the running game for Buffalo is now a mess with C.J. Spiller out and Fred Jackson still nursing a knee injury although he is likely to play even though he is not at 100 percent. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been great the last two games by throwing no interceptions and that means he comes back to earth this Sunday.

Tom Brady has owned the Bills over the years and there is no reason to think he won't have another big game here. His offensive line will have to play well and the Patriots also need to get their running game going which has been non-existent over the last two games. The Bills have allowed 745 yards passing so far this season and have yet to face an offense as strong as the Patriots. The last time he was in Buffalo, Brady threw four picks so you know he will out for redemption.

The line opened with the Patriots favored by six points but it quickly came down as sharp money was all over Buffalo and the line has now settled in at four and there should not be much more movement. New England falls into a great situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (205) New England Patriots

The Seahawks came away with a very fortunate win on Monday as everyone is well aware of. Seattle moved to 2-1 with the victory with both wins coming at home in consecutive weeks and now it heads back out on the road in what looks to be a very tough situation. The Seahawks own a solid home field edge but they are very average on the road, going 5-12 under head coach Pete Carroll. High profile wins over Dallas and Green Bay has put Seattle in the false favorite role this week.

St. Louis is 1-2 after falling in Chicago last week to drop to 0-2 on the road. The Rams lone win came at home against Washington in Week Two and I expect a similar rebound this week coming off that road defeat. This team is a lot better than it was last season when it went 2-14 and that comes down to better coaching and health. Four of their seven home losses last year came by a touchdown or less so as bad as they were last season, the Rams were still competitive at home

The defense has been improving each game for the Rams as they allowed a season low 274 yards last week in Chicago. They won't have to produce any magic against the Seahawks as their offense is still a work in progress under rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle is ranked 26th in scoring offense and 29th in total offense and they it is dead last in the league is pass attempts and yards. They do have a strong running game behind Marshawn Lynch but the Rams runs defense is above average.

The big matchup will be the Rams offense against the Seahawks defense with the latter being one of the best units in the NFL. Holding Dallas and Green Bay to 19 combined points is quite impressive, but again, those games were at home. The Rams have to keep Seattle off balance and that starts with Steven Jackson who is coming off a poor game last week. Last week the Packers used some powerful runs to establish balance and keep the Seattle from going all in on the pass rush and it worked.

You cannot compare Green bay and St. Louis but Seattle goes for a home underdog to a road favorite which is very rare in the this league and the Rams benefit from it as they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 67-32 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983 including going 19-3 ATS (86.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This system has not lost over the last three years (7-0 ATS). 10* (218) St. Louis Rams