Sports Picks & Predictions

We won with Stanford last week as it bounced back from its upset loss at Northwestern with a blowout win over Central Florida, outgaining the Knights by 310 yards. While it was a dominating performance, it has to be noted that Central Florida is not a good team with just nine starters back and playing on the west coast after an embarrassing loss put it in a horrible spot. Now the spot becomes horrible for Stanford as it hits the road again in its Pac 12 opener against sixth ranked USC. The Trojans are 2-0 with ho-hum wins over Arkansas St. and Idaho so while they were not tested, we already know what this team is capable of. The sanctions have been lifted and the Trojans finally have depth again. We saw how bad Stanford got beat in the trenches against Northwestern and USC has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The loss of defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is a big setback for Stanford in this matchup as he is out for the season with a torn ACL. On the other side, Stanford is averaging just 3.2 ypg and that puts them in a negative situation explained later. Last season USC opened the season with a blowout win and had Stanford in its second game and won that on the road and while the last five meetings have all been close, this is the one that breaks that string. We play against teams that are averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc going up against a team allowing between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc, in conference games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (196) USC Trojans

California came through for us in a big way last week against San Diego St. as it spotted the Aztecs a 7-0 lead before scoring the final 35 points and easily covering. The Golden Bears were favored by 12.5 points which would have made them less of a favorite at San Diego St. than they are against Texas and that simply does not make sense. California is an up and coming team with high expectations and a Heisman Trophy caliber quarterback but I do not think they are ready to be laying points on the road quite yet. They have not been in this role since 2012 and this is not the time or place to be doing it. Texas has looked shaky to start the season as it was blown out by Notre Dame and then had a tougher than expected game against Rice last week. That game needs to be examined further however as while Texas only won by 14 points, it was up by 28 in the fourth quarter where the Owls scored their garbage touchdowns and outgained Texas 175-16. It is often when fourth quarter anomalies take place that can mess up what really happened. The Longhorns could use a big effort heading into conference play and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. The defense has not looked like the defense it is supposed to be and this will no doubt be a tough yet attainable challenge. California is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards last game. 10* (184) Texas Longhorns

Arkansas is coming off a baffling loss last week at home against Toledo so you have to feel for Texas Tech and the wrath that is about to be put upon them. The Razorbacks had chances to win last week but could not get the job done as they ended up inside the Toledo redzone on their final four drives but came away with only three points total. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and that is most important to us in a follow up game as it shows who was the better team despite the loss and the defeat actually helps us going forward for motivational purposes. Arkansas is a sleeper pick by some in the SEC even with a brutal schedule as it brings back 15 starters. Texas Tech is off to a 2-0 start with wins over San Houston St. and UTEP. While the latter was a blowout, the Red Raiders were actually outgained by San Houston St. The Bearkats are one of the best FCS teams out there but if Texas Tech could not outgain them at home, what are they going to do against an SEC team on the road? Arkansas blasted the Red Raiders last season in Lubbock so there is no reason for it to be any different at home. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 31 or more ppg last season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (170) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but I like the situation and the matchup on top of that. NC State was one of the most improved teams in the country last season as it went from three wins in 2013 to eight wins in 2014. While that may signal a reversal the other way this season, I don't see it that way at all. The Wolfpack are coming off two wins over inferior competition but not much is changing here or next week for that matter when they face South Alabama so there is no chance of a lookahead. NC State snapped a 0-9 ATS skid as a road favorite by blasting USF last season and with 15 starters back, they know how to win on the road. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs are already off to a 2-0 start as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team last week. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS so replacing him will be a challenge especially trying to stay up with an offense like that of NC State. The Wolfpack will also get a boost with the return of last season's leading rusher Shadrach Thornton who missed the last two games while serving a suspension. 10* (129) NC State Wolfpack

Pretty much everyone saw, or at least heard, about Auburn nearly losing to Jacksonville St. as a 40-point favorite last Saturday so the masses will be lining up behind LSU this week as gamblers have very short memories. The Tigers also struggled to get past Louisville it their opener but we still feel this is a better team than they are being made out to be as it is a complete rarity to find a team that is undefeated and drop 12 spots in the polls. Clearly, Auburn was not focused on the Gamecocks but more so on LSU this week and it almost bit them. They have no where to go but up and that is what we are expecting here as this team is loaded. LSU burned us last week as it led Mississippi St. 21-6 only to let the Bulldogs come roaring back but they were fortunate that they missed a two-point conversion as well as a possible game winning field goal. LSU moved up only one spot in the polls since the preseason as it is currently No. 14 so while there is not much of a difference between these two teams, LSU's home field advantage is not worth seven points which is basically what this line is telling us. Since this line came out over the summer, it has gone up four points which is all public reactions. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (149) Auburn Tigers

As often stated, teams are not as good as they may have looked a week ago and vice versa. That can certainly be said for Temple which is off to a 2-0 start but it is extremely skewed. Looking at just the scores will show nothing more than possible flaws so digging deeper is imperative. In this case, the Owls defeated Penn St. and to their credit, they did dominate as a weak Nittany Lions offensive line allowed 10 sacks. They then upset Cincinnati on the road last week by eight points as a six-point dog. If only it were that simple. Temple was outgained by 261 total yards against the Bearcats but was able to force five turnovers which was the ultimate difference. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-31 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. They did fall short in their season opener at Colorado but are back home with this game being played at Gillette Stadium which is a big boost from their 17,000 on-campus stadium. This is the last shot for Massachusetts for a while as it leaves the MAC after this season and goes independent. The 2016 schedule is absolutely brutal so the time to win is now and while there have not been many wins, they are capable even though the linesmakers won't have you believe so. 10* (112) Massachusetts Minutemen

Typically we stay away from road favorites the majority of the time but this situation calls for playing the road chalk. Florida St. is off to a 2-0 start with expected victories over Texas St. and South Florida so while the opponents have not given it a test, they Seminoles are not taking a huge step up in class here. Many will remember the close call Florida St. had against Boston College at home last season where it took a last second field goal to win. That is ideal for us here. The Seminoles are not going to be taking the Eagles lightly and this is another revamped Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-0 but have played no one as they have faced two teams from the FCS and actually struggled in one of those. They defeated Maine by just 18 points and last week they rolled over Howard, which is a step above a high school team. The east schedule has skewed the numbers as Boston College leads the country in total defense but we know that is a farce. The Eagles have only 10 returning starters and while the defense will be good, they are in for a test here. Offensively, Florida St. has just four starters back but as usual, it is loaded at the key positions. Boston College lost its leading passer and rusher in quarterback Tyler Murphy while also losing two of its top three receivers. This one could be real ugly. 10* (105) Florida St. Seminoles

Week Two of the NFL is known as the week of overreaction and we are seeing it right out of the gates this week. Denver defeated Baltimore in Week One 19-13 but for some reason, the public is very sour with the Broncos and namely Peyton Manning. In all fairness, he did not look very good as he was just 24-40 for 175 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It is safe to say he is not happy about it and we can expect a bounceback effort here. Kansas City jumped out to a big lead over Houston and was able to hold on for the seven point road win. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans however and while it can be argued the differential was caused by garbage time yardage, it isn't like college football where starters are subbed out so there is no excuse thus garbage time is more pronounced in the college game than in the pro game. And dealing with the public perception, because of the lackluster Broncos win and the dominating performance from Kansas City against the Texans, the line has moved from Even from when it opened prior to Sunday's games to -3 and that is the ultimate overreaction. Denver has never lost to Kansas City since Manning came on board as it is a perfect 6-0 and it has amazingly won 12 straight road divisional games going back to the days of Tim Tebow. Thus, coming in as the underdog is a huge advantage. 10* (101) Denver Broncos

Overreacting to the first couple weeks of the season is a common mistake for bettors and of course being the contrarian type, we love the fact that the lines have to be adjusted because of it. Louisville is off to a 0-2 start including a home loss last week to Houston as a 13.5-point favorite. The Cardinals lost their opener in Auburn by seven points which looked good at the time but based on the Tigers near loss against FCS Jacksonville St., we aren't sure what to believe. Still, Louisville is better than its 0-2 record and we will see a focused bunch that knows a 0-3 start could spell disaster for the rest of the season. Clemson is coming off a couple blowout wins over some mediocre opposition and now comes its first real test. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won five straight games by double-digits but none of those have been true road games and this is not an ideal spot as the Tigers went 0-3 ATS last season as road chalk. The offensive line has just one starter back from last season while only three starters are back on a defense that led the nation last season in total defense. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 48-15 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Louisville Cardinals

The 49ers are the second of two home underdogs tonight and while this is another unpopular pick, the value is there. Linesmakers have to play a lot of guessing games in the first week of the season for setting their numbers and as a result, they can be way off base as we saw that on Sunday with the chalk teams going 9-4 against the number which makes the favorites tonight very attractive to the betting public. The return of Adrian Peterson coupled with Teddy Bridgewater in his second season makes the Vikings a trendy option for the playoffs after finishing 7-9 a season ago. Bridgewater was decent as a rookie as he ranked 11th in the NFL with a 64.4 completion percentage but he was 22nd with an 85.2 passer rating and while Peterson will make him better, I'm not sold on him just yet. The 49ers lost Patrick Willis, Anthony Davis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith to retirement and were forced to release Aldon Smith so the defense is the major concern but this is definitely a favorable matchup to start the season with. On the other side, Colin Kaepernick is coming off his worst season as the 49ers quarterback but with low expectations, this is when he can shine. His favorite target Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Torrey Smith provide a great duel threat and the running back by committee is not necessarily a bad thing. New head coach Jim Tomsula replaces Jim Harbaugh and that is a factor that can be in our favor here because of the unknown aspect of it and not being able to prepare for it as usual. 10* (492) San Francisco 49ers

Going into Thursday, there were eight home underdogs on the Week One NFL card and that eventually jumped to nine with the Chiefs closing as favorites. The home dogs went just 2-5 yesterday so the public cleaned up pretty good but we were fortunate to be on both of those winners with the Bills and Rams winning outright. The final two home underdogs for the week both go tonight and we will be backing the Falcons at home after a very disappointing 2014 season that led to the dismissal of head coach Mike Smith. The Georgia Dome was a great edge for the Falcons up until the last two years as after going no worse than 6-2 in the first five years at home with quarterback Matt Ryan (33-7 overall), Atlanta has gone just 3-5 at home each of the last two years. The Eagles are one of the public picks to jump over the Seahawks or Packers and win the NFC but even though the team looks stacked, there are some early season concerns with so many new faces on the team and that affects early team chemistry especially on offense. And that is where this game will be decided as the Eagles surrendered 4,238 passing yards last season, which was the second-highest total in the NFL, behind only Atlanta with 4,478 yards allowed. The hiring of Dan Quinn from Seattle should improve the Falcons defense and while it won't take place overnight, we will see it tonight. As we know, past results cannot predict future outcomes but the fact that the Falcons are 7-0 straight up and against the number in home openers under Matt Ryan cannot be overlooked. 10* (490) Atlanta Falcons

The Giants and Cowboys game is one of only three divisional games the entire weekend and when we think of divisional games, we think of hard fought battles when the teams are not that far off from each other (i.e. Green/Bay/Chicago earlier in the day). That is what makes this line very surprising. The Cowboys are expected to again contend for the NFC Easy title, which is said just about every year, while Giants are predicted to finish third in most previews. Preseason win totals have the Cowboys and Eagles at 9.5 and the Giants at 8 which is not a significant difference so there is not reason to think this line should be what it is. This is a historic rivalry and going back to the 2011 season, this game has never had a spread of more than -4.5 for either side so the fact that it hit a touchdown in some spots is a head scratcher. New York hopes to get off to a better start this year after starting 0-2 last season with a lot that being on Eli Manning's shoulders but he was learning a new system and it obviously took time. Many are predicting a big year from him which would not be surprising. The Cowboys will be dynamic on offense but the defense is not at full strength with Rolando McClain and Orlando Scandrick both out. Here's the deal. Linesmakers have to base their numbers on portions of last year and looking back, Dallas is not as good as its 12-4 record and the Giants are not as bad as their 6-10 record and that is proven with the aforementioned preseason win totals coming into the season. 10* (487) New York Giants

Here is what we can call another ugly home underdog, one of eight such teams on the Week One slate. Besides Jacksonville, this is the second ugliest based on power rankings but unlike the Jaguars, the Raiders have a lot of potential upside. While we aren't talking Super Bowl, surpassing their three wins from last season is a strong possibility. The key here is Jack Del Rio who brings in a winning attitude and a winning pedigree, something that Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable, Hue Jackson, Dennis Allen and Tony Sparano failed to accomplish. Quarterback Derek Carr because just the seventh rookie to throw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and he should be a lot better this season as the Raiders drafted star Alabama receiver Amari Cooper and brought in Michael Crabtree from San Francisco to give him some much-needed weapons. Oakland has a better defense now as well and linebacker Khalil Mack is the real deal. The Bengals failed to win a playoff game yet again and while they come in as a candidate to win the AFC North, winning on the road has to improve. Cincinnati is 21-2-1 at home the last three years but just 11-13 on the highway over the same stretch. The Raiders have finished 3-5 at home each of the last three years but last year could provide some momentum coming into 2015 as after losing their first five home games, they won their last three, all against teams that finished .500 or better. The public is all over the Bengals as a hefty consensus but the line is staying put which favors our side by thinking the contrarian way. 10* (484) Oakland Raiders

The NFC South was an abomination last season as every other division in the NFL possessed at least two teams with winning records while Carolina came out of the South to win it with a 7-8-1 mark. The Saints finished with a 7-9 record, the second time in three years they have had a losing mark and as dominant as many think they still are, they have not won the division since 2011. New Orleans was a surprise 4-4 on the road last year and by that I mean surprisingly good as they rarely have .500 or above seasons on the highway. Arizona was a pleasant surprise last season as it made the playoffs despite losing the services of Carson Palmer for 10 games. He is back to full health including his shoulder and he says his arm is stronger than ever. New Orleans parted ways with many key contributors including Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and leading receiver Kenny Stills so it may take time for the new roster players to find their way. The public still loves the Saints, home or away, and while this line could go lower by gametime because of late public money coming in, we are already seeing reverse line movement. The Cardinals are the early consensus, which consists of not as much public action as you will see come Sunday, but one popular book has actually dropped the line which presents some intriguing reverse line movement. Arizona has a sneaky good home field advantage and Bruce Arians meanwhile has gone a solid 17-5 ATS in his 22 games at home as a head coach. The home field again remains strong in Arizona. 10* (478) Arizona Cardinals

A record eight home underdogs are on the Week One NFL card and that just shows how much public perception can affect opening week numbers. Linesmakers have a tough enough time setting lines but coming in with no data or stats to work with, these liners open at what they think the public will back and then are adjusted accordingly. To no surprise, the Colts are road favorites here as they are the second favorite behind New England to win the AFC Championship. As of Thursday, the Colts are the fourth biggest consensus bet with the other three above them being road chalk as well which only cements how much the public loves laying numbers on road teams. Buffalo went 9-7 last season which was a three-game improvement from 2013, 2012 and 2011 which were all six-win seasons. I think there is room for more improvement as the defense remains a strength, the offense has more playmakers and a dynamic quarterback has stepped up. Tyrod Taylor had an awesome preseason and if he can carry even some of that into the regular season, the Bills could make a serious charge at the AFC East title. This is no easy task but Buffalo has thrived in these spots in front of the home crowd, going 6-1 ATS in seven games as a home underdog the last two seasons and now the team is even better. The fans know it and it will be raucous. Indianapolis won 13 games last season before losing to New England in the AFC Championship and that puts the Colts into an awesome contrarian situation that we ride to the bank on Sunday. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

St. Louis falls into the same ideology of the common theme on opening week in the NFL and that is going against the public consensus as the main basis due to the lack and data, stats or results. While we don't have any of that info, neither do the linesmakers when trying to set these lines so even though we go in relatively blind, imagine how they feel when there are millions on the line. The Seahawks were a yard away from a second straight Super Bowl title and they come in as the favorites to win it all once again at +500. Seattle is another big public consensus play on Sunday but take this team out of Seattle and it becomes beatable even it if may be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Low scoring games certainly helps the underdog and this has the potential to be a very low scoring game as it will feature two of the best defensive lines in football going up against a pair of offensive lines that have serious question marks entering the season. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll confirmed that three-time Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor will in fact miss Sunday's game and that is huge for the Rams as Nick Foles will have to find a rhythm with his receivers and get it done through the air. While Seattle has dominated this series at home the last three years, St. Louis has won two of the three meetings here while covering the third matchup as well. Another outright win if far from out of the question but in this case we are getting a line almost everywhere that is above the key number of three. 10* (476) St. Louis Rams

Stanford got manhandled pretty good last week at Northwestern as it was outgained by 90 total yards and scored just six points. The Cardinal have been the team over the past few years that wins the battle of the trenches but that was far from the case against the Wildcats as they were outgained on the ground 225-85 but I am not concerned about that at all. Northwestern ran the ball twice as much (54-27) and the ypc differential was off by just one yard. The fact that the Cardinal kicked off at 9:00 AM their time didn't help matters. If anything, Stanford comes home to take their frustrations out on an inferior team and that is what we have here. UCF is coming off an embarrassing loss as well as it fell to Florida International by a point but making it worse was that it was at home. Now the Knights have to fly across the country to face an upset Stanford team. They only have nine starters back and while they are expected to contend in the weak AAC, facing a tough PAC 10 team is no easy task. The Cardinal has been a great bounceback team under head coach David Shaw as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an upset loss as a favorite while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining fewer than 225 total yards. 10* (400) Stanford Cardinal

Mississippi St. opened 2015 with a victory over Southern Mississippi by 18 points but the game was a lot closer than that as the Bulldogs won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards as one of their scores was set up by a blocked punt and they also had a kickoff return for a touchdown. A win is a win of course but it is skewed which could be playing with this line. Mississippi St. contended last year in the SEC West but that seems unlikely this season considering they are bringing back just seven starters. LSU should have a game and a win under its belt but its game with McNeese St. was postponed last week after just 11 plays due to inclement weather. That could be a good thing here however as there was no film for Mississippi St. to look at to prepare for this one. The Tigers have 15 starters back, the most since 2005, including nine on offense that regressed slightly from its 2013 numbers so the unit should be a lot stronger this season. This is not the time of year the Bulldogs want to face an experienced LSU team as they schedulemakers did them no favors. The Tigers have not forgotten last year's upset at home to Mississippi St. so revenge comes into play. LSU is 9-2 ATS under head coach Les Miles as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. 10* (323) LSU Tigers

We played against Nebraska last week and while the cover was a done deal, the way it lost outright was shocking and it spoiled the coaching debut of Mike Riley. Teams can either let that bother them the following week or use it as motivation and we should see the latter here. The Huskers take a big step down in class this week and South Alabama certainly catches them at the wrong time. The Jaguars won their season opener against Gardner Webb from the FCS and it was a pretty unimpressive win. They won by 10 and while they won the yardage battle by 99 yards, their four touchdowns came on plays of 49, 50, 56 and 92 yards and that is not going to happen against Nebraska. South Alabama had a very solid season in 2014 as it went to its first ever bowl game but after getting 15 starters back last year, they have just five starters back this season and going into a hornets nest in the first road game will be a challenge for the new guys. The Jaguars do not have the talent or depth to keep up as I expect Nebraska to score at will behind Tommy Armstrong Jr. who had a very solid game last week. Backing home teams coming off a home loss can be a difficult wager at times but not when the disparity is like this. 10* (390) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is the first matchup of the season between two top ten teams and it has the makings of a great one. I do not think it is going to be close as some may think however as Michigan St. has the potential to move up the rankings even more with a quality win. We played against the Spartans last week and they were able to win on the road at Western Michigan but failed to cover the number. It was a possible lookahead to this one as the Spartans will be out for revenge following last year's 19-point loss in Eugene. They were only outgained by 25 total yards and actually led late in the third quarter before getting outscored to end the game. Oregon cruised over Eastern Washington last week but came away with a lot of questions, especially on defense. The Ducks allowed 42 points and 549 yards at home against an FCS team and while the Eagles are no slouch, Michigan St. is a different beast altogether. Oregon has just six starters back on each side of the ball and while talented, I think the Ducks are overrated where they are ranked and that certainly skews the public perception. This is a team that could struggle early in the season and they are fortunate that most of the tough games don't come until late in the season. That is with the exception of this one. 10* (392) Michigan St. Spartans

Losing on Purdue was a kick in the teeth last week as Marshall was outgained by the Boilermakers by 57 total yards but it used two interception returns for touchdowns to pull off the frontdoor cover. We are going against the Thundering Herd as they come in favored for the simple reason that they beat a team from the Big Ten even though they were outplayed. Ohio won its season opener at Idaho and while it wasn't overly dominating, winning the first game of the season on the road is always big. The Bobcats have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and the home opener will be energetic for more than one reason. Ohio will be out for some payback as it lost in Huntington by 30 points as the defense was gashed for 705 yards by the Marshall offense. As mentioned last week, the Thundering Herd are rebuilding and the offense put up only 397 yards at home last week and now they hit the road to face the best defense in the MAC behind Northern Illinois on paper at least early in the season. They are projected to have the best linebacking corps and second best secondary and will hold their own here. 10* (330) Ohio Bobcats

We are getting great line value here based on what the public saw last week. Western Michigan played Michigan St. pretty tough, losing by just 13 points and getting outgained by just 69 total yards. The Broncos are expected to contend in the MAC East but they are a team to fade in situations like this. Georgia Southern meanwhile got hammered by West Virginia 44-0 as it was outgained by 320 total yards and because of that, the Eagles come in as the home underdog. This is the typical spot where the public goes against these teams but Georgia Southern is far from as bad as it may have looked last week. It is going to contend in the Sun Belt Conference after going 8-0 last season but it was unable to go to a bowl game as it was ineligible so there is plenty of motivation to get the wins it needs to get and that includes this one. The Eagles have 13 starters back and is tough to prepare for because of the option offense behind the starting quarterback and top four rushers all back. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Georgia Southern Eagles

This number has jumped considerably since it opened but that is not going to deter us as California is back from the dead. After one victory in 2013, the Golden Bears had five wins last season and have 17 starters back this season, the most in the entire PAC 12. They opened this season with a bludgeoning of Grambling 73-14 as the offense put up 656 total yards, the sixth highest total from last week. Obviously the opposing defense will be tougher this week but I'm not quite sold on the Aztecs. They finished 22nd in total defense last season but the schedule they played was not a tough one at all and this will be the toughest offense they have seen. San Diego St. managed only 305 total yards on offense last week against San Diego from the FCS as the quarterback play from Max Smith was horrid. On the flip side, the Golden Bears possess the possible top rated quarterback in the upcoming draft in Jared Goff should he leave after his junior year. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. California has not been great in the role of home favorites the last few years but this is the best California team over this stretch. 10* (358) California Golden Bears

You have to commend head coach Jerry Kill and what he has done at Minnesota since coming over in 2011. The Gophers have put up 8-5 records the last two seasons while going to a bowl game the last three seasons even though they lost all of those. Minnesota opened the season with TCU last week and stayed relatively competitive as a late touchdown may have skewed the final score some. The Gophers were outgained by 108 total yards which is certainly respectable but they comer in here favored because of the narrow six-point loss and the fact that Colorado St. has to replace not only a head coach but also an All American quarterback as well as some other key players. But they have 15 starters back and showed they can be plenty explosive on offense still as they hung 65 points on Savannah St. behind a strong performance from new starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Sure playing an FCS team will give you numbers like that but that was an important game as teams with new starting quarterbacks needs those to gain confidence and not be thrown into the fire right away. New head coach Mike Bobo was the Georgia offensive coordinator the last eight years so he knows what he is doing. Plain and simple, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (344) Colorado St. Rams

Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued two years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Last year, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and now New England opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champs to open the season with a victory. The story here obviously in the Tom Brady issue and when he was suspended, the line dropped from -7 to -2.5 but when he was reinstated, it went back up to -7. So now it is Pittsburgh that is on the short end of a suspension issue as Le'Veon Bell is out for the first two games and we know what he is capable of and how much he is missed, looking at the Baltimore playoff game as a prime example. Brady, who addressed reporters Sunday, admitted Thursday would be entirely about beating the Steelers and not about revisiting last season and the banner getting raised so focus will not be an issue. New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 10* (462) New England Patriots

This is a big game for Western Kentucky. While the win over Vanderbilt was big, the Hilltoppers need to prove it was no fluke and show they have the ability to keep momentum going similar to the end of last season. It was an ugly win as they were outgained by 147 total yards but the defense came through when needed while the offense could get nothing going against an underrated Commodores defense. Western Kentucky is very solid on offense despite last week as it has seven starters back including quarterback, two top receivers and two top running backs on an offense that averaged 44.4 ppg. Louisiana Tech blew away Southern in a glorified scrimmage last week behind the strong play of Florida transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel. He should have more success than he did at Florida but when he was bad, he was really bad. The defense should be the strength for the Bulldogs again but they will have their hands full here on the road after trouncing the Hilltoppers 59-10 last season and holding the powerful offense to 297 total yards. Revenge time. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Ohio St. is the preseason favorite to win a second straight National Championship and this team is loaded no doubt. Typically, we would take a look at the home underdog here because of the point value that usually comes with it but we are going the other way here. The Buckeyes will come in with some serious motivation after losing the season opener to the Hokies last season and to not lose again the rest of the season. Ohio State's offensive line got better throughout the course of last season. Against Virginia Tech, they had four new starters and Taylor Decker, who was playing at left tackle for the first time after starting on the right side the year before. The Buckeyes think they're better prepared for whatever the Hokies throw at them. The fact they have named the starter yet may concern some but it is a huge preparation disadvantage for the Hokies. Virginia Tech scored only 24 points before J.T. Barrett's last-minute pick-six last season and I don't see them scoring much here. There is always the talk of how good Virginia Tech is at home primetime games and while that may be the case, the Hokies have played the No. 1 team eight times in their history, and have lost all eight, seven by double figures. 10* (209) Ohio St. Buckeyes

We waited this one out hoping to get over the magic number in most spots and that is the case now. Marshall was one of the best stories last season as it started off 11-0 before losing its first game against Western Kentucky 67-66 in overtime. The Thundering Herd are far from the same team however as they lost superstar quarterback Rakeem Cato as well as linebacker Neville Hewitt, Conference USA's Player of the Year. Michael Birdsong takes over for Cato at quarterback and the transition could be difficult. He will ease into the system after his transfer from James Madison and this will be his first start in 21 months. Purdue has raved about its rigorous offseason workouts, with players becoming bigger and stronger. The Boilermakers have started a different quarterback in five straight season openers but the good news this year is after starting the final seven games last season, Austin Appleby maintained his spot atop the quarterback depth chart for this season. One big edge is in the trenches where Purdue brings back all five starters from its offensive line while Marshall lost 80 percent of its players along the defensive front. For the Boilermakers, Marshall has been the focus since offseason workouts started in January and they even had "Marshall Mondays" to ramp up the intensity and to keep the concentration on the season opener. Purdue has every chance to win this game outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (207) Purdue Boilermakers

Since playing in its first ever bowl game in 2005, Akron has suffered through nine straight losing seasons. Three consecutive 1-11 seasons from 2009-2011 were tough to swallow but last year arguably trumped those. A win in the season finale against then 1-9 Kent St. would have made the Zips bowl eligible but instead, they allowed a touchdown with a minute left to fall short of a possible postseason bowl berth. Even with a strong coaching staff and a solid amount of returning players, winning on the road has been a problem for Akron, going 3-33 on the highway since 2009. So it may seen surprising that we are backing the Zips here as I feel they are an underrated team heading into the season based on past failures which is being reflected in this line. Oklahoma came into last season with high expectations but finished 8-5 and while expectations are high once again, don't expect the Sooner to be clicking on all cylinders early on in the season. They have a new offensive coordinator which means new offensive schemes and they have to replace four players along the offensive line. Overall, it is a very young Oklahoma team as it has only 10 seniors in the two-deep while having six freshmen there. Since coming to Akron in 2012, head coach Terry Bowden has fared well against Power Five teams with good showings at Tennessee, at Michigan, at Penn St., and even a win at Pittsburgh last season. This is the biggest number that Akron has received since that Michigan game two years ago and we will take full advantage. 10* (183) Akron Zips

Kentucky was one of our under the radar teams last season as they were projected with a 3.5-preseason win total and went on to win five games which may not seem great but it was a big step for a team coming off consecutive two-win seasons. This is the year that the Wildcats are expected to make an even bigger move and their first bowl game since 2010. Most of the players on the team are head coach Mark Stoops recruits and have been here for the High-Intensity training under Eric Korem. The Wildcats return major contributors in just about every position on offense and defense highlighted by quarterback Patrick Towles who will take a major step forward this season with even more firepower on offense and a new offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson. Lafayette went 9-4 last season for a fourth straight year but the Cajuns are in a major rebuild right now. They opened camp with redshirt junior Brooks Haack, redshirt junior Jalen Nixon (Carencro High) and redshirt freshman Jordan Davis all vying to succeed three-year starter Terrance Broadway at quarterback and a starter will not be named until right up to gameday most likely but it won't matter who starts as there will be struggles. There are new coaches on defense and the defensive line is thin which is a concern. They are expected to contend in the Sun Belt again but even facing a non-elite SEC team in the first game of the season in not ideal and the talent differential will show big time here. 10* (192) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a great matchup for the underdog Cougars which once again plays a daunting schedule. BYU went 8-5 last season but it could have been a lot better as it started 4-0 before losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill for the season because of a broken leg. He is back at full health and is a Heisman Trophy candidate, albeit a longshot and the offense will again revolve around his accurate arm and strong running game. The defense was up and down last season and didn't end particularly good by allowing 55 points against Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl but improvements are expected with plenty of returning experience especially on the defensive line. Nebraska has a new head coach in Mike Riley who came over from Oregon St. in a somewhat surprising move. That means changes are in order and at the top of the list is he has installed a new pro style offense behind returning starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. He was not very efficient last season as he completed just 53 percent of his passes and he will be asked to throw more this season and that is not going to be a good thing early in the season. The offensive line brings back just one starter that played every game last season and the Cougars should have a big edge in the trenches. The attitude is much different for BYU as well. "Entering this season there is a different feel than previous seasons. It's … team unity and excitement," captain Bronson Kaufusi said. "Everyone is united with the same goal. Everybody wants the same thing. There is a different level of confidence." 10* (177) BYU Cougars

Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats

This is the first time since 2008 that Michigan St. has opened the season with a true road game and for Western Michigan, this is the first time it has opened a season at home since 2004. That happened to be the last time the Broncos opened the season with a victory and while the outright win here is not likely, the number is certainly on our side here. Western Michigan won eight games last season after winning just once in 2013 so the turnaround under head coach P.J. Fleck, now in his third season, was huge. The Broncos have the ability to be even better this season as they bring back 16 starters overall while nine starters return from an offense that ranked second in the MAC in scoring at 33.8 ppg. Michigan St. comes into the season ranked fifth in the AP Preseason poll so the fact the Spartans are favored by so much is not surprising. The have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten and a stout offensive line but they have to replace Big Ten Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1,500-yard rusher Jeremy Langford so it will not be a seamless transition from last season. On the other side, the big issue for the Spartans defense is in the secondary that has to replace its top two players from last year and in addition are breaking in a new defensive coordinator as Pat Narduzzi moved on to take the head job at Pittsburgh. This is a no pressure game for the Broncos and we expect them to keep this highly competitive and stay within the inflated number. 10* (156) Western Michigan Broncos

Hawaii head coach Norm Chow has won just eight games in his three seasons and he enters this year clearly on the hot seat. A brutal early season schedule that features this game along with road games at Ohio St., Wisconsin and Boise St. is not ideal to turn things around but this is a very winnable game and one that this team needs for confidence. The normal powerful offense has been anything but however that could change here as up-tempo coordinator Don Bailey comes over from Idaho St. where the Bengals topped the FCS in passing yards per game (348.1) in 2014. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Colorado expects to be an improved team this season as well but going from 2-10 to a better record shouldn't take much anyway. Offensively the Buffaloes will be solid and they plan to exploit a young Hawaii defense but it is the other side that is the problem. The Buffaloes ranked 102nd in the nation in rushing defense and 116th in scoring defense last season and there is not a lot of hope for a big improvement, that is where this number is good for Hawaii as they have the offense that can backdoor this spread if necessary. Even though not as intimidating as usual, Hawaii is always a tough place to play for opponents and the outright win here would not be surprising. 10* (150) Hawaii Warriors

UTSA and Arizona squared off last season and we won with the Roadrunners as they lost by just three points at home as a 7.5-point underdog. They were outgained by over 100 total yards however but were able to stay within the number thanks to an amped up home field but that will not be the case this season. UTSA goes from one of the most experienced team in the country with 20 starters returning to one of the least experienced teams with just three starters back this season, all on defense. The Roadrunners are the only team in the country that has to replace all starters on both lines so facing a strong Arizona team in their first game is not ideal. The Wildcats made it to the Pac 12 Championship last season and while it will be tough to get back there, the potential is there for another strong season. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon was brilliant at times last season and in others, he looked like a freshman. He has a lot to learn still but talent returns everywhere and he can get a lot better. He should have no problem against this defense. Sophomore tailback Nick Wilson rushed for 1,375 yards last season and has a chance for a big game. Arizona should improve on defense as well but even if it will take time, there is no worry here against an offense that has no one back. The close call in the meeting last season will no doubt have Arizona focused here. 10* (148) Arizona Wildcats

Week One of the college football season can be tricky as there is not much to work off of but the same goes for the linesmakers as well. They have the tough job in setting these lines and a lot of that is based on last year and predictions going forward for this season. Duke had an outstanding season last year and it has won 25 games over the past three season but 2015 could be tough out of the gate. Replacing quarterback Anthony Boone and receiver Jamison Crowder have moved on so the explosive offense from last season will be tough to replicate. Defensively, the Blue Devils are strong in the secondary but very weak up front. Tulane can take advantage. The Green Wave struggled with the passing offense behind Tanner Lee but they will be better and the running game is the strength anyway. Four offensive line starters are back and the three-headed backfield of Sherman Badie, Lazedrick Thompson and Dontrell Hilliard is one of the best in the American Athletic Conference. Tulane fell from 22nd in total yards allowed in 2013 to 55th last season but it should be on the way back up with several key starters returning. These teams met last season with Duke winning at home by 34 points despite outgaining the Green Wave by just 46 total yards. Duke was favored by 16.5 points there and the line is pretty equivalent based on the venue change which means it is way too high over the span of a year. 10* (144) Tulane Green Wave

We have seen some high scoring Super Bowls in recent years as five of the last six have seen 48 points or more being scored. With the scoring going up even more this season, people are expecting to see another high scoring game but I do not think that is going to be the case this season. We have two offenses capable of putting up points but we also have two defenses that are capable of at least slowing the opposing offense down. Seattle brings in the top ranked defense into the Super Bowl in both points allowed and yardage allowed. That being said, I still think the Patriots offense is going to be able to have success, albeit not to the extent of the success that New England has had the first two games of the playoffs. As mentioned in the side report, the Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. Typically, that would mean a high scoring game but I firmly believe the other side will have a huge impact in this game and one that probably many are not expecting. The Patriots defense has been average this season, ranked 13th in total defense but a much more potent eighth in points allowed. They did give up 31 against Baltimore but since Week 12, they have allowed 17 points or less six times and have allowed an average of 16.6 ppg over their last eight games. There were some fluke games early in the season but when facing top notch quarterbacks, they have done exceptional. Against Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck (twice), Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers, they allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg. They came up huge in the AFC Championship against the Colts and overall, New England finished ninth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and rushing ypc allowed which will be important against the Seahawks for obvious reasons. This is the highest total that Seattle has encountered all season long and it is even higher than last year's Super Bowl total. That one went over because of 14 points scored from defense and special teams and as long as we don't see that again, this one should stay under the number comfortably. 10* Under (101) New England Patriots/(102) Seattle Seahawks

Seattle opened as a three-point favorite and last for about an hour and a half before some major action came in on the Patriots which drove it all the way down to -1 and eventually a pickem. There was no way that field goal spread would have stayed no matter the amount of action that came in as from a power ranking and spread standpoint, this game is a pickem. It is the intangibles however that I feel gives the Patriots a significant edge and they will deny the Seahawks from becoming the first back-to-back champions in a decade when they were the last team to do it back in 2003-04 and 2004-05. the biggest intangible edge for New England is the coaching staff. Taking nothing away from what Pete Carroll has done in Seattle but Bill Belichick is a legend and despite losing the last two Super Bowls, he will come up with an alternate gameplan to avoid a repeat of those. We played against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship and while we cashed the ticket, the Packers should have won that game outright as they outplayed Seattle for 57 minutes of that game. Green Bay was not aggressive when it needed to be and the onsides kick debacle as well as not even getting the ball on offense in overtime was unfortunate. Going into this game, Seattle had not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright and while the Seahawks won on Sunday, they didn't beat Aaron Rodgers as the Packers did it to themselves. And the Seahawks are not going to beat Tom Brady either. New England has gone 19 playoff games since winning its last Super Bowl and that is killing Brady more than anyone else hands down. Russell Wilson could turn into a superstar, he is having his worst season as a pro as far as passer rating and he is not in the same category as Brady. The Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. While motivation is not lacking this time of year, something says that the Patriots, Belichick and Brady push that pedal down more than usual and get back to the place they do in fact deserve, Super Bowl Champion. 10* (101) New England Patriots

Many will be lining up behind the Patriots here based on the fact they should not look as bad as they did last week along with the fact that they have dominated Andrew Luck and the Colts in all three meetings. New England won those three games by 35, 21 and 22 points with the last one being in Indianapolis during the regular season. In my opinion, all of those games can be thrown out as the Colts are playing at a high level while New England has looked average over its last three games. The Patriots twice came back from 14-point deficits against Baltimore so give them credit for fighting all the way to the end. They will likely be a one-dimension team once again however as they threw 51 times and ran it only 13 times for 14 yards against Baltimore. Against two of the hottest backs in the league, Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill and Denver's C.J. Anderson, the Colts allowed a meager 198 yards rushing in two games. The 99.0 ypg average is the lowest among the four teams still playing on championship weekend. On the other side, Luck is playing solid and faces a Patriots defense that has been tore apart by above average starting quarterbacks, including Luck in Week 11. The Colts believe they will have the same starting combination on the offensive line for the third straight week. The most recent time that happened was Weeks 1 to 3. Indianapolis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 14 points or less last game while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. 10* (303) Indianapolis Colts

It is interesting that the team from the west coast is hosting the earlier game on Sunday and that no doubt hurts Seattle from a fan standpoint as the later those games are, the louder it gets. While we lost with Carolina last week, the Panthers actually outgained the Seahawks but it was the 90-yard interception return for a pick six that resulted in a 14-point swing and put the game out of reach. No doubt, playing in Seattle is going to be tough no matter what time of day it is but Green Bay certainly has the ability to win this game and at this price, it is getting zero respect. The line last week eventually went up to 13 on gameday but it hovered around 10.5-11 more of the week and the fact that the Packers are getting just 2.5-3 points less than that depending what line you get is silly. Add to the fact, Seattle was favored by 4.5 points in the season opener against the Packers and now the line has gone up considerably. While Seattle did cover that game, it has not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright. Aided by a number of receiving options, a stronger runner in Eddie Lacy and an improved defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once in nine games, the Packers are a more complete and confident team than the one that visited Seattle in September. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-20 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Green Bay Packers

The NFL could not have scripted this one better fore the final game of the Divisional Playoff Round as the league eats this stuff up. The Colts advanced to the next round as it dominated the Bengals on Sunday for the second time this season. They outscored Cincinnati 53-10 and outgained it 988-389 in those two games combined but both of those games were at home and while Indianapolis had a winning road record, it is skewed. The Colts went 0-3 on the road this season against fellow playoff teams and the margins were even worse as they were outscored 124-65 compared to outscoring the five non-playoff teams 169-103. Denver was able to lock up the 2nd seed in the AFC and a bye with a rout over Oakland and that was a big win as it got them out of a three-game funk and get some momentum heading into the postseason. The Broncos offense has chanced and for the good as in the last six games of the 2014 season, they began grinding out drives, while improving on the points-per-possession efficiency established in the first 10 games. That could be crucial against a Colts defense that has been in the bottom half of the league in rushing yardage per game, per carry and first-down rate. Denver won the first matchup this season as it held off a late Colts rally and the Broncos fall into a great situation based on the as we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (120) Denver Broncos

Dallas survived at home against Detroit as it rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win it late to earn a trip to Green Bay. The Cowboys were a perfect 8-0 on the road during the regular season and while a win at Seattle was impressive, that was the only road game against a team that made the playoffs. Give them credit for not folding against the Lions but they go into a very difficult spot here. The Packers finished a perfect 8-0 at home which included three wins against teams that made the playoffs. They had a bye week which was more important to them than any other team as it gave time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to rest his injured calf. Rodgers has been having one of the best seasons of his career and while Dallas has shown the ability to force takeaways this year, Rodgers has been remarkable at home by throwing 25 touchdowns and not a single interception. The Cowboys defense has given up 251.9 ypg through the air this season, which is just 26th in the NFL. Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750, winning those games by close to two touchdowns per game. The key here is second half of the season since Green Bay has a big home field edge in terms of when the weather can get bad. The Weather Channel predicts a high of 19 degrees and a low of 4 next Sunday in Green Bay. 10* (118) Green Bay Packers

Seattle got off to a pretty uneven start this season with a 3-3 record through six games but closed on a 9-1 run including wins in its final six games of the season while going 5-0-1 ATS over that stretch. The Seahawks are now in the drivers seat to head back to the Super Bowl but just getting there again is difficult in this league as it has been a decade since a team has been able to make a return trip. That means little here but it could have some correlation because of the pressure that comes with it. Carolina heads into Seattle off win over Arizona as the defense held the Cardinals to just 78 total yards and while the Panthers take a big step up in class here, they are playing at the top of their game right now. They have won five straight games after a dismal 1-8-1 run and while many won't give them a chance here, their defense can keep them hanging around. They have allowed 300 yards only once over their last six games and they have outgained seven straight opponents. Seattle isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as it has scored more than 20 points only twice in its last seven games. The Seahawks were held to just 13 points in the first meeting against the Panthers and while that was in Carolina, the Panthers were not playing at a high level then. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 65-33 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (113) Carolina Panthers

The Ravens are coming off a win in Pittsburgh despite getting outgained by 92 yards as they were able to take advantage of turnovers. They are a team that simply gets it done this time of year as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games and 5-0 ATS in their last five road playoff games. The defense was thought to be old and washed up but has allowed 88.3 rushing ypg this season and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 27 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady faces a Ravens defense that was second in the NFL in regular season with 49 sacks (29 by linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs). The Ravens only allowed opponents to convert 42.6 percent of their red-zone drives in the regular season, the second-best percentage in the NFL. On the other side, quarterback Joe Flacco is now 10-4 in his career in the playoffs with 21 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The Patriots defense is ranked 13th overall and will see plenty of balance coming from Baltimore. While their recent playoff history is well known, the Patriots are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Going to Gillette Stadium is never easy especially this time of year but the Ravens will be unfazed as they have won twice here in the playoffs in three tries with the lone loss coming by just a field goal. 10* (111) Baltimore Ravens

This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Sunday, January 4th, 4:40 PM ET* Dallas is on a roll with four straight wins and covers and this line is severely inflated to reflect that. This is the second highest line the Cowboys have been favored by at home and is just a point or two lower than when they were favored over Washington. The win over the Redskins this past Sunday completed a perfect 8-0 road record but at home, Dallas is just 4-4 so it has been pretty average even though it defeated the Colts handily in their last home game. Detroit lost out on a chance at winning the NFC North with a loss at Green Bay on Sunday but it played a very respectable game against a Packers team that is unbeatable at home. The Lions have dropped three straight against the number which is also factoring into this line and at 4-4 on the road, they have been solid away from home. The Lions come in with the better defense and they fall into a solid situation because of it as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 50-24 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Dallas is just 8-19 ATS in 27 games as a favorite under Jason Garrett and while Ndamukong Suh has been suspended, the line should only inflate more. Detroit has an excellent chance to win this one outright but we will gladly grab the generous points. 10* (101) Detroit Lions

We waited to release this game based on the questionable status of Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green as he went from questionable to doubtful to officially out as of yesterday. He is a huge impact on the offense and while Cincinnati has been practicing without him all week, it will be a big absence. Additionally, tight end Jermaine Gresham has been nursing a back injury all week and like Green, has practiced only one day. Gresham was on Friday's injury report as questionable. His playing status could be a game-time decision. Cincinnati went 1-2 against the number without Green this season including a 27-0 loss here in Indianapolis. The Colts have won four of their last five games after taking down Tennessee in the season finale after getting ripped against Dallas. Indianapolis is 6-2 at home with an early season loss that never should have happened against the Eagles and the other coming against the nemesis Patriots. The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Cincinnati one of the two playoff teams that is getting outgained on the season with Arizona being the other and we saw what happened there yesterday. The Bengals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games coming off a divisional road loss while the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win. 10* (108) Indianapolis Colts

We have been waiting on this one primarily due to trying to get further information on the status of Le'Veon Bell but the news has not changed as his still has not practiced and will be a gametime decision tomorrow night. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley said Bell could play against the Ravens even if he does not practice this week. This is a big deal as far as the total goes as if he does not play or if he is limited, the passing game will become more critical which certainly favors the over. This series has gone over seven of the last nine meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than eight of those which draws some questions. Since 2008, there have been 15 meetings between these two teams and only two of those final scores would have been over the 45 posted here. The last meeting was one of those that went over the number and this one sets up as another high scoring game. This total could be placed higher but the recent runs is keeping it in check as Baltimore has stayed under the total in four straight games while the Steelers have stayed under in three straight games. When it comes to Steelers playoff football, you think defense but in reality, they have gone over the total in 21 of 29 playoff games since 1992 and while that has no bearing here, it shows that defense is not necessarily the strength in the playoffs. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (103) Baltimore Ravens/(104) Pittsburgh Steelers

*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Saturday, January 3rd, 4:35 PM ET* The first game of Wild Card weekend is definitely the lamest of the bunch as 6-8-1 Carolina hosts Arizona that went from a possible bye to having to play on the road. But I think it is a solid betting opportunity as we have two teams going in opposite directions. Carolina comes in on a four-game winning streak and the defense that carried the Panthers last season and was no where to be found early in the season has been the strength. They have allowed just 10.8 ppg over that stretch and facing an Arizona offense that has scored 18 points or less in seven straight games, it should remain powerful. Drew Stanton could feasibly be back for this one as he is listed as day-to-day and is improving but his numbers have not been very good so while it would be an upgrade from Ryan Lindley, it is not a big upgrade. On the other side, Cam Newton has been up and down this season but is coming off a solid game against Atlanta where he didn't have to throw much and he is the type of quarterback that can give the Cardinals fits. Russell Wilson tore Arizona apart for 339 yards passing and 88 yards rushing and Newton is capable of big numbers both ways. The Panthers have outgained six straight opponents and that is what you want in backing a team heading into the playoffs. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (106) Carolina Panthers

Florida is 6-5 and would be 7-5 if not for its game against Idaho being canceled early in the season and there is a lot at stake for the Gators as they are playing for their coaches and their futures with the program. Not only does Florida want to prove that it deserves respect with a 7-5 record, the players also want to make sure incoming head coach Jim McElwain is well-aware that they are talented and prepared to make an impact in 2015. after not going to a bowl game last season, the Gators will be highly motivated to win this one. This is a difficult spot for East Carolina as it is still trying to recover but its season ending loss against Central Florida on a last second hail mary. East Carolina comes in with a high powered offense but will be facing its toughest opposing defense of the season and will also be facing the elements as the weather may play a factor in slowing the Pirates down. The Gators are ranked eighth in the nation in total defense, they hold opponents to 4.45 yppl, have allowed opposing offenses just 23 touchdowns and have yielded 311.0 ypg. On the other side, despite its struggles, Florida's offense has been an efficient scorer in the red zone, converting 38-of-42 opportunities (.905) which is good for third in the SEC and 12th nationally. East Carolina will be without top running back Breon Allen who hurt his knee Wednesday as well as two key defensive players, All-AAC nose tackle Terry Williams and safety Domonique Lennon, who were ruled ineligible. 10* (274) Florida Gators

Oklahoma St. falls into the category of a below average team that was fortunate enough to make it to a bowl game because of conference affiliations. We won with the Cowboys in their regular season finale against rival Oklahoma as they won outright to become bowl eligible but it was a fortunate outright win as they returned a punt 92 yards with under a minute left to force overtime. Still, Oklahoma St. was outgained by the Sooners which was the case over its last seven games and by an average of 164.9 ypg and that alone tells you this is not a very good football team. Washington finished 7-5 and comes in riding a two-game winning streak. All five losses came against Pac 12 bowl teams and all of those teams have at least eight wins on the season so there is nothing weak about the record for the Huskies. Expectations were average coming into the season as Washington went 9-4 last season but brought back just 14 starters and lost most of its star power on offense. The big factor here is that the Huskies want to carry some positive momentum into next season and they have the coach that can do that with Chris Peterson in his first bowl game with the Huskies and we saw what he did with Boise St. in the postseason. His teams are 10-2 ATS in 12 games against teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game while Oklahoma St. is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against winning teams. 10* (272) Washington Huskies

Coming into the season, Tennessee was the only team in the nation that had to replace its entire offensive and defensive lines, so going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game is a huge achievement. The Volunteers are going to be good, very good, in the coming years but I do not think they are there quite yet and nor do I think they should be favored in a bowl game. The conference affiliation has a lot to do with this but the SEC has shown a lot of weakness as its teams are just 5-5 thus far with Tennessee and Florida remaining and the Volunteers reside in the weak East Division on top of it. One of the Volunteers win was over FCS Chattanooga, another against 5-7 Kentucky and the victory that got them bowl eligible came over 3-9 Vanderbilt by just a touchdown. Tennessee is outgaining opponents by just 3.1 ypg and while Iowa comes in at 7-5, it is outgaining opponents by 63.8 ypg and has been outgained just once over its last six games. The Hawkeyes lost to Nebraska in overtime to close the regular season, their second straight loss by three points or less and third overall on the season. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home following a loss and head coach Kirk Ferentz knows how to get this team prepared, covering five of their last six bowl games, winning five of those outright. Tennessee meanwhile is just 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games against winning teams while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. 10* (267) Iowa Hawkeyes

The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide

The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The first matchup is the Rose Bowl between reigning champion Florida St. and Oregon. The Seminoles have lost three times since mid-2011, going 34-3 over their last 37 games with two of those losses coming by a single point. They are riding a 29-game winning streak but looking at this line, no one seems to be buying into it. Florida St. plain and simple finds ways to win and it remains the team to beat until it loses. It will be a challenge against Oregon for sure as the Ducks come in at 12-1 and they too come in a model of consistency with just four losses over the last three years. But as good as they have been, they should not be laying this kind of wood especially to a team that has not been an underdog since Week Four of 2011, a span of 50 games. And not only are they getting points but they are getting points greater than one possession which makes this a sure take. Luckily, no suspensions have been given out which is always a concern in these games so playing this one late didn’t matter but it is a chance well taken. Oregon has covered eight straight while Florida St. has failed to cover in three straight which is adding to the value. 10* (261) Florida St. Seminoles

While players tend to get up when their coach who they respected a great deal is fired, case in point Nebraska, players tend to also rise to the occasion when coaches betray them on move on and that will be the case with Wisconsin. Head coach Gary Anderson in a bizarre move left Wisconsin to take over the head coaching job at Oregon St. after Mike Riley left to become the new coach at Nebraska. AD Barry Alvarez will be on the sidelines for the Badgers for his second bowl game in three years as he also stepped in for Brett Bielema when he bolted to Arkansas. He will be the motivator as Wisconsin tries to bounce back from a 59-0 drubbing against Ohio St. in the Big Ten Championship and the Badgers should bounce back just fine. Auburn didn't exactly close with a flourish as it dropped three of its final four games and is now being asked to lay a touchdown against a very strong team. The Tigers will be without receiver D'haquille Williams who was suspended for this game for a violation of team rules and that is going to hurt the offense for sure. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (255) Wisconsin Badgers

They say the best way to strop Georgia Tech is with extra time to prepare and based on its bowl record, that seems to be true as the Yellow Jackets are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson. That can certainly be attributed to their opponents having at least two weeks to prepare for the triple option but it can also be attributed to the situation at hand. That being said, the lone Georgia Tech bowl win came in 2012 against USC which looked to have packed it in following a disappointing ending to the season where it lost four of its final five games heading into the postseason. While not as big of a skid, Mississippi St. is definitely in a down mood following losses in two of its last three games to from National Championship dreams to just an above average season. The Bulldogs made great strides this season and they have already guaranteed themselves 10 wins for the first time since 1999. They are 3-1 under Dan Mullen in bowl games including a win last season so there is not a ton of motivation heading into the Orange Bowl. The biggest factor is that it is another SEC team that has an inflated line because of what conference it is in. The Yellow Jackets won both games outright this season when getting a touchdown or more and they are getting the same amount they got in that USC bowl game with the four losses coming as a favorite or a shorter underdog. 10* (253) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats

Georgia's season did not end like it wanted as it fell to Georgia Tech in its season finale in overtime which basically took the Bulldogs out of a big time bowl and landed them in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. That loss was devastating and doesn't bode well for a team that is heading to a minor bowl games as pre-New Years Day bowl favorites of six or more points are just 10-24-3 ATS following a straight up loss as a favorite and the once again underachieving Bulldogs are once again ripe for an outright loss. Louisville meanwhile is coming off a win over Kentucky to end the regular season on a three game winning streak to move to 9-3 overall. That is big as the Cardinals are going after three straight seasons of double-digit victories for the first time in the history of the program and apparently, that has been a big motivator for coaches and players heading into this bowl game. Motivation plays a big part in bowl success, or lack thereof, and here we have two teams on complete opposite sides of the spectrum and we are catching a big number as well. The Cardinals possess the third best rushing defense in the country and they are one of a very few amount of teams that can slow down the Georgia run game. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against winning teams while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a spread loss. 10* (245) Louisville Cardinals

Coming into the season with high expectations, Notre Dame started off great with a 6-0 record before a controversial loss against Florida St. was a dagger it could not remove as the Fighting Irish finished on a 1-5 run including losses in their last four games. Many people like to fade teams in bowl games coming in with significant losing streaks but I think this time it provides a great deal of motivation not to mention great line value. Notre Dame was an underdog of a touchdown or more just once and it covered at Florida St. and of its five losses, three were by four points or less. LSU isn't coming in with any great momentum either as it lost two of its final three games and went just 4-3 in its final seven games of the season and 5-4 over its last nine. The Tigers again possess one of the best defenses in the country but Notre Dame has an offense that can compete with that stop unit, as long as they do not turn the ball over. On the other side, the Fighting Irish defense got gashed during the second half of the season but LSU has been extremely inconsistent on offense and head coach Les Miles does not plan on altering much in this game. Of the eight wins for the Tigers, four came by six points or less including three of the last four and LSU is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games away from home following a win. 10* (243) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

An old rivalry is reborn tonight when Texas and Arkansas get reacquainted from the days of the Southwest Conference. It has been an up and down season for both of these teams and with identical 6-6 records, this seems to be a pretty even matchup but that is not what the linesmakers are telling us. After losing four of its first six, Texas found its stride, winning three straight and gaining a berth into the postseason although it is coming off a blowout loss against TCU to close the regular season. Internally, it was tough at times for the Longhorns with many player suspensions and dismissals but head coach Charlie Strong did things the right way and yesterday he announced that all of his players are eligible to play tonight. Prior to back-to-back shutouts over LSU and Mississippi, Arkansas had dropped 17 straight SEC games so it is hard to back up the Razorbacks as suddenly having figured things out. Most surprisingly, they were outgained by the Rebels despite a 30-0 win and followed those two wins by losing to Missouri and getting outgained by 135 yards. Texas falls into a fantastic situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 50-16 ATS (75.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Texas Longhorns

This line has come down from opening due to the official word that West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett is out due to concussions which has ultimately forced him to quit football. Skyler Howard played in only three games for West Virginia, taking over for Trickett against Kansas State and starting the regular-season finale versus Iowa State. On the other side, Aggies freshman quarterback Kyle Allen, hit 61.3 percent of his passes for 764 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in four games since supplanting sophomore Kenny Hill as the starter. One big factor here is that the Texas A&M defense will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the school fired defensive coordinator Mark Snyder following the loss to LSU in the regular season finale. Interim defensive coordinator Mark Hagen, also the linebackers coach, will be calling plays. One reason the defense was so bad was because that it was on the field the third more in the nation so having over a monthly off is huge. Motivation is on the side of the Aggies as head coach Kevin Sumlin has been preaching to his players that they can become the first team in program history to win four straight bowl games. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a bye week while the Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (238) Texas A&M Aggies

Atlanta is a popular pick this week playing at home and coming off an upset of New Orleans last week. The division is on the line Sunday as the winner will be crowned the champ despite possessing a losing record. There is not a whole lot that separates these two teams and based on that, we are getting value with this line which should be no more than three because of the divisional home field advantage. The Falcons home field advatnage has not been that great to begin with as they are 3-3 at home including losses in three of their last four. Carolina has won three straight games and it is playing its best football of the season as it has outgained each of its last five opponents, the last four coming by at least 100 total yards. Atlanta is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 14 or more points and 0-6 ATS I its last six home games after gaining 375 or more yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (315) Carolina Panthers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR

We won with Chicago last Sunday and we will back the Bears again this week taking a line that is completely inflated. One main reason for taking Chicago last week was the fact that Jay Cutler was benched and his teammates rallied around Jimmy Clausen. Now with Cutler back in the lineup, I expect the Bears to rally around him this week. Chicago has lost four straight games including the last three all coming at home and playing on the road is actually a good thing to end the season. The Vikings are coming off two straight brutal losses on the road, both of which were two-point setbacks and those will be tough to recover from. Minnesota has cashed five straight games at the betting window which is a big reason for this inflated price. It doesn't matter who they are playing but the Vikings have no business laying a touchdown and the last time they were favored by this many points, it was Week Three of last season. Here we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (317) Chicago Bears *NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

The Saints had a very disappointing season as they were tabbed a favorite to at least be in contention in the NFC. Instead, they will miss the playoffs for the second time in three years and getting up a game against Tampa Bay will be near impossible. Yet, New Orleans is favored which it should be based on its better record and the fact that Tampa Bay has yet to win a game at home this season. The Buccaneers are coming off their seventh home loss of the season last week against Green Bay as they were in a tough spot with the Packers coming off a loss against the Bills the previous week. Tampa Bay will be out to avoid a winless season at home and despite the 0-7 record, they have had their chances, losing four home games by six points or less. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a cover loss and fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ENFORCER

Nebraska finds itself in a rare position of being a ranked team playing in a bowl game without its head coach because he was fired. But that is the case tonight for the Huskers after Bo Pelini was dismissed on November 30th, two days after a 37-34 overtime win at Iowa. It surprised many including many players that loved playing for Pelini and there will be a ton of motivation for Nebraska to win this one for him. Barney Cotton, who served in a number of capacities as an assistant under Pelini, will lead an interim staff of Pelini's assistants so there will be a smooth transition. USC ended its season with a resounding win over Notre Dame but it is not overly impressive considering the Irish's downward spiral at the end of the season. Still, it was disappointing for USC which lost big to UCLA and lost out on a chance to play in the Pac 12 Championship and while this team is good, it should not be favored by this much. The Trojans rely on a strong passing offense but the Huskers match up very well as they finished third nationally with a 100.6 opponents' passer rating, allowing 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home against teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better. USC meanwhile is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a home win while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (235) Nebraska Cornhuskers

The underdog came through in two of three bowl games yesterday and we will start Saturday by grabbing the dog in the first game with Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a very trying season as they finished 6-6 and it wasn't until the season finale against Virginia that they were able to punch their ticket into the postseason for the 22nd straight year, the second longest streak in the nation. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but seven of those games were in the role of favorite and overall, Virginia Tech went 3-1 ATS when getting points. Cincinnati comes in riding a seven-game winning streak so it is unfortunate that it had to take a break in-between the regular season and now as momentum can be hurt from it. These are streaks we like to go against especially considering that only two wins over the stretch came against teams going bowling. Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games away from home after a win by six points or less and falls into a solid situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (227) Virginia Tech Hokies

Central Florida comes in riding a four-game winning streak with all four of those games covering as well and I feel that is helping with this number tonight. The Knights concluded their season with a 51-yard Hail Mary as time expired to give UCF a 32-30 road win over East Carolina and the AAC title. So not only is that to overcome but the fact that the Knights played in the Fiesta Bowl last season is a big letdown for this group. NC State had a great turnaround season as it went from three wins last season to seven wins in 2014 and back into postseason play for the fourth time in five years. The Wolfpack concluded their season with a resounding win over rival North Carolina which was its second straight win following a 1-5 stretch that included some blowout losses against some power teams. They too have momentum coming in and a rushing game that should have success as NC State averaged 206 ypg on 5.4 ypc and that came against a difficult schedule. While the Knights possess a tough defense, they did not face a tough slate as five of their last six wins came against non-bowl teams. Look for the Wolfpack to run wild and take this one outright. 10* (225) NC State Wolfpack

At first glace, a power conference team getting a substantial amount of points from a non-power conference team may be tempting but it is this big for a reason. Illinois is fortunate to even be in a bowl game as it defeated Penn St and Northwestern to end the season which got it the necessary six wins to become eligible. Prior to that, the Illini had dropped five of its previous six games while getting outgained in all six of those games and by an average of 222.2 ypg so they were dominated thoroughly. The defense is awful, allowing 464.3 ypg especially the rushing defense which is giving up 249.6 ypg on 5.1 ypg, the worse of any team playing in the postseason. Louisiana Tech dropped a tough one to Marshall in the C-USA Championship by three points which was its third loss by three points this season. Louisiana Tech has benefitted from not only an opportunistic defense but also senior quarterback Cody Sokol, who came from Iowa, and passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37.5 ppg. Louisiana Tech went a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after a loss, with the three outright wins coming by 28, 49 and 45 points. 10* (222) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is one of those odd situations where we see a team with a losing record in a bowl game but because Fresno St. got to the mandatory six wins and also because of conference affiliations, here they are. The Bulldogs 13th game came in the MWC Championship which they lost to Boise St. but it was actually one of their better games of the season. They came on strong after a poor start that began at 0-3 but overall, they are getting outgained by 37 ypg and a suspect defense allowed three teams to achieve season highs in yardage. The Bulldogs defense has been atrocious to say the least, ranking 111th in yards allowed, 96th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the run and 101st in points allowed (32.6 ppg). Rice also started the season 0-3 but closed on a 7-2 run that including winning the yardage battle in all but two games against Marshall and Louisiana Tech which are a combined 21-6. Allowing 76 points in the season finale to Louisiana Tech was an anomaly as the Owls possess a strong defense as they allowed 23 points or less in all seven of their wins. Rice is 10-1 in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when having more than the typical week of preparation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (220) Rice Owls

Some may be surprised by this number but I think it could be a lot higher as giving the Marshall offense over two weeks of preparation can be deadly for the opponent. The Thundering Herd had two bye weeks this season and in the following game, they tallied 56 and 63 points and while this will be a tougher test, don't think that Marshall cannot put up a huge number today. Northern Illinois was struggling for a while before catching fire as it finished the season with seven straight wins including covers in each of the last three. Conversely, after covering eight of nine games, Marshall failed to cover in its last three games which sets up a great contrarian scenario here. Even though Marshall failed .to go through the season undefeated which many anticipated, there is still plenty of motivation. 14 seniors will be playing their final game for the Thundering Herd including senior quarterback Rakeem Cato. The Northern Illinois defense has been solid but has seen nothing like Cato. No quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Huskies this season, a mark Marshall Cato has either matched or eclipsed in all but two games in 2014. This is a spot the Huskies have not had success in as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, losing those games by an average of 29 ppg. 10* (214) Marshall Thundering Herd

Playoff implications are on the line tonight with both Denver and Cincinnati needing to win to further playoff opportunities. The Broncos need to win to try and keep hope alive for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Bengals can get into the postseason with a win tonight and next week against the Steelers. We are seeing some value with the total tonight however as Denver has gone under in three straight games while Cincinnati is coming off a shutout last week at Cleveland while going under in five of its last six games. Those recent runs are keeping this number down with a couple of very efficient offenses that can put up some numbers. Additionally, the Bengals are ranked sixth and the Broncos are ranked seventh in neutral pace. We have not seen much the last three weeks with the Denver offense but that should change against the Bengals 22nd ranked defense despite shutting out Cleveland last week. Denver falls into a great high scoring scenario where we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 (75%) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games while the over is 11-4 in the Bengals last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (131) Denver Broncos/(132) Cincinnati Bengals

BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers

Arizona is once again getting no respect and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback situation of course. No one thinks that Ryan Lindley can make it happen especially against a strong Seattle defense but playing at home can make up the difference here and even more so, he has had over a week to prepare after getting thrown right into the fire last week. It is no secret Arizona will try and run the ball and it comes at a good time as they are coming off their two best rushing games of the season, 143 yards against St. Louis and 141 against Kansas City. The Cardinals also possess a very underrated defense that causes turnovers and is third in the league in scoring defense. In first meeting, the Cardinals held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries and 13 of those yards came on one play and they sacked Russell Wilson seven times. The Seahawks are definitely peeking at the right time as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. Playing on the road is not their strength though as they are 4-3 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a better than .500 record. Head coach Bruce Arians is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and he is 17-4 ATS in 21 home games including a 9-1 ATS record as an underdog. The Cardinals fall into a fantastic situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game against going up against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Arizona Cardinals

The Bears would not have been a play but the benching of Jay Cutler has changed that as we will see the players rally around Jimmy Clausen. And because of the Cutler benching, the line has gone up and wee are getting an exceptional number here. Chicago has lost three consecutive games, both straight up and against the number and with no chance for the postseason, many are writing them off. This is the last home game of the season so the effort will be there and while this is a play on Chicago, it is also a play against Detroit. The Lions have won three straight games, all of those coming at home and that often presents a good opportunity to go against. This is a big game for the Lions as they are at Green Bay next week which will decide the division but taking the Lions outside in the elements is not ideal. They are 3-3 on the road and one of those wins came in London and in the five true road games, they have averaged just 12.6 ppg. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 96-57 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games against teams who give up 27 or more ppg and 7-23 ATS in its last 30 games following two or more wins. Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games revenging a road loss by 14 points or more and 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (112) Chicago Bears *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH

Plain and simple, this line is way too high. Minnesota has been playing exceptional as it has covered seven of its last eight games and while it may be just 4-4 in those games, three of those losses were by a field goal or less. The Vikings are not in the playoff hunt but you have to give a ton of credit to head coach Mike Zimmer as his team continues to play hard for him despite the fact they will miss the postseason for a second straight year. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is coming into his own as he has a 91.8 passer rating in his last six games and Miami's defense has been nothing special the last few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, the Dolphins need a ton of help and it isn't likely. Head coach Joe Philbin is now on the hot seat and the way the team has looked, he may have lost his players. The offense hasn't scored more than 16 points and been held to 213 rushing yards in the last three games and the Vikings defense has steadily improved over the second half of the season. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER

Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons

Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers

Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams

The NFL Network cannot be too thrilled to have this yawner as the final Thursday night game of the season but that is what they got stuck with. While many will be expecting a low scoring game that will have two inept offenses going at it, I think we will see a lot more scoring than anticipated. Both teams have gone under the total in two straight games as the offenses have scored a grand total of 42 points in those four games. That doesn't come to be much of a surprise as these are two of the lowest scoring teams in football but it is the other side that will be of help. Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense while Jacksonville is ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so even some of the worst offenses in the league can get through these stop units. Because of the public perception, the total is the lowest that each team has seen all season and it is over two points lower than the first meeting which finished at 30 total points as many will be banking on another similar finish. Tennessee falls into a great over situation as we play the involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 53-23 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 12-2 to the over in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while the over is 5-1 in the Jaguars last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (101) Tennessee Titans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars

It is pretty hard to believe that over their last seven games, the Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-0 on the road which is a complete anomaly of normal Saints teams. New Orleans is getting the love again tonight as it is favored on the road against a team with an identical record overall as well as with the home/road splits. This is not a role that the Saints have thrived in this season as they are 3-8 ATS as a favorite including going 1-3 as a road favorite. The Bears have been a major disappointment at home also and they are coming off a pair of losses, one on Detroit on Thanksgiving where they played on short rest and last Thursday at home against Dallas. They now have had extra time off for this game and the fact they are getting just one points less here against the 5-8 Saints than they did against the then 9-4 Cowboys which makes no sense. One of the areas that has hurt Chicago is turnovers as they are -6 in turnover margin but the Saints have actually been worse with a -9 turnover margin. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and have a solid situation on its side for tonight as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. Look for the wet and windy weather tonight to affect New Orleans much more. 10* (334) Chicago Bears

The Vikings got away with one last Sunday as they won in overtime against a Jets team that was in a horrible spot coming off a Monday loss to the Dolphins. Minnesota escaped in overtime and now heads to Detroit for a revenge game where it lost 17-3 in the first meeting while gaining a mere 212 total yards. The difference now is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and he is playing excellent right now with QB ratings of 120.7 and 117.7 the last two games. He will be facing a tough Detroit defense for sure but the Lions are not in a good spot. This is the final game of a three-game homestand for the Lions and the final home game of the season and teams playing in their third consecutive home game after winning the first two games are just 6-24 ATS since 1990. This is no doubt a big game for the Lions in trying to keep pace with Green Bay as they face the Packers in the season finale in two weeks. But we are catching a great number as Detroit is laying just two points less than last week against a much better team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games revenging a same season loss while Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10* (323) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER

This is a contrarian play on the total but we have a lot of favorable angles calling for a high scoring game. One big factor is the total itself as it is the first time all season that either team is being presented with a total in the 30's and it is two points lower than the total in the first meeting on Thanksgiving. That first meeting stay under by a lot which is playing into this number as is the fact that San Francisco has gone under in its last four games while Seattle has gone under in its last three games. The series has seen four straight unders cash but again, this is lowest over/under of the bunch so we are getting some great value. The San Francisco offense has been plodding along of late and while the Seahawks defense presents a challenge, being the second game in three weeks, the 49ers should be well prepared on offense after a bad string of games. Seattle is averaging 28.7 ppg at home so it will get its points against a 49ers defense that has struggled in four of their last five games. Seattle falls into a solid situation as we play the over involving teams that have gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Seattle has gone over in seven straight games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* Over (329) San Francisco 49ers/(330) Seattle Seahawks

Many will be backing the Patriots here based on the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and will be out for revenge following their 33-20 loss in Miami opening week. Of course both of those factors are already being taken into consideration with the line which I feel is inflated because of the public's admiration for New England. The Patriots surely want to keep winning to grab home field advantage in the playoffs but this is a bigger game for the Dolphins as a loss here will knock them out of the playoff picture. Miami has lost two of its last three games including a 28-13 home loss against Baltimore last week that was decided on an overturned turnover call which ended up being the difference. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 the last 10 years. The Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (315) Miami Dolphins *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chiefs got off to a solid 7-3 start this season but they have since lost three games in a row including a couple narrow losses by four and three points. They are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture so while this is a must win, Kansas City could use a game of domination from start to finish to build some confidence before playing Pittsburgh and San Diego to close out the season. The Chiefs could not be hosting a better opponent this week to regain some of that domination as hey will be out to avenge a loss in Oakland in Week 12 which happened to be the Raiders first win. Oakland is coming off a win last week against the 49ers and we all remember what happened to the Raiders in their next game after their first win as they were pummeled by the Rams. Kansas City has two great situations in its favor. First, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 72-33 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Kansas City Chiefs *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR

This series has been dominated by Navy in recent years as it is riding a 12-game winning streak over Army dating back to 2002. It is the longest winning streak by either team in this series that goes back to 1890 and the linesmakers are not believing that Army breaks that streak this season. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by less than what Army is getting this year and surprisingly, this is the highest pointspread in this series since 2006 when Army was getting 19 points and covered. What makes that surprising is the fact Army has come into this game with three or fewer wins six times since 2006 and it has more than that this season while Navy, at 6-5, has come into this game with seven or more wins seven times since 2006 so while the team's records are closer, the line is not. The Midshipmen are not having a great year and even though they come in with wins in four of their last five games, they are overvalued in this spot. The Army ground game is good enough to keep pace and the Navy defense will not provide much resistance. Taking care of the ball is paramount for the Black Knights as they have win the yardage battle three of the last four years only to lose because of costly turnovers. While the streak may not end this year, we will grab the generous points while rooting for the outright win. 10* (303) Army Black Knights

Despite a 10-3 record, not many people are giving Arizona a chance here or the rest of the season for that matter based on their recent play where they have gone 1-2 over their last three games while getting outgained in all three of those. The loss of Carson Palmer at quarterback was no doubt big but Drew Stanton has fared pretty well. He played well against Detroit, the best defense in the NFL, in his first start and with the exception of a bad game in Seattle, he has compiled ratings of 91.4, 72 and 88.1. Certainly not great but good enough to have chances to win and he is 2-2 in those starts. The play of St. Louis is also playing into this line and it is a surprise for sure as it has won two straight games while covering its last four. Beating Denver was big and playing San Diego close was solid but the last two wins came against Washington and Oakland, a combined 5-21. Additionally, the Rams shut out those last two opponents which brings up a great opportunity to play against them here. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a nonconference game while the Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards. Also, we play against home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Arizona Cardinals

Waiting on the weather in Green Bay is an absolute must before putting out anything and while the weather tonight will be cold with a chance of snow, there is nothing extreme going to take place that can affect a football game. The Packers are playing great right now as they have won four straight games and eight of their last nine and are now a half-game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. This line is overinflated however based on the recent run, the Packer name and the fact that Atlanta struggles outside the dome. The one thing I cannot overlook is the fact that Green Bay is outgaining opponents by just 11.2 ypg on the season. The Falcons can take over first place in the NFC South by a full game with a victory here and winning outright is not out of the question. The defense is the concern but after allowing 28.4 ppg through their first seven games, they have allowed just 20 ppg over their last five games. Offensively, the Falcons have the weapons to keep up and the return of Roddy White tonight to compliment Julio Jones would be huge. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian spot as we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* (179) Atlanta Falcons

After winning their first game of the season, Oakland got destroyed last week in St. Louis which was an expected letdown based on that big victory over the Chiefs. No one thought it would be that bad though as the Raiders went down 52-0 although they were outgained by just 104 total yards as five turnovers did them in. Now they head back home to face their most hated rival outside of their division and it could very well be their most hated rival overall. San Francisco lost at home on Thanksgiving to Seattle and it was a pretty ugly game as it was outgained by 215 total yards and this team is just not playing well right now and should not be laying a number this big. The 49ers are 3-3 over their last six games and the three wins were by a combined 13 points and those wins were against teams all with losing records. Two situations favor the Raiders as well. We play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (174) Oakland Raiders *ENFORCER

Arizona returns home following two straight road games and two straight losses. And the Cardinals did not look good in either one as they dropped to 3-3 on the road but bring in a perfect 6-0 home record to try and stop their skid. They have just a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West so this is no doubt a big game. It is a big game for the Chiefs as well which are also losers of two straight games but they have not been playing good for a while. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and are getting outgained on the season by 20.7 ypg. The Chiefs are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record that are getting outgained. Two situations are on our side as well as first, we play on home underdogs or pickems after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 95-54 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 89-46 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Arizona is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less and Bruce Arians is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in games he has coached. 10* (172) Arizona Cardinals *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR

Buffalo kept its playoff chances alive with a win last week against Cleveland to make it two straight victories which can be credited to the defense. The Bills allowed just 13 points in those two games and going back, they have gone under the total in four straight games but that changes this week as they are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL and even more so on its home field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs last week in a game that stayed below the number, the second straight road game that fell below the total. Denver now returns home where the over has cashed four straight times thanks to an offense that has averaged 39.3 ppg in those games and even though the Bills defense has been great, this is not the spot for that to continue. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record while going 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after playing its last game on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games following one or more consecutive wins with an average scoring being 57.5 ppg in those games. This includes 66 points being scored with the Jets after a win over Minnesota earlier this season. 10* Over (169) Buffalo Bills/(170) Denver Broncos

This is a horrible spot for St. Louis. The Rams defeated Denver at home, battled San Diego on the road in a tight loss and then pummeled the Raiders last week. Now they hit the road again against a team they could care less in playing with a home game against rival Arizona on deck. And they are favored on top of it. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they were road favorites and this season, they are 0-4 when coming off a win. The Redskins are back home following a stretch of four road games over their last five and they only won once in this span, an overtime win at Dallas. Clearly Washington is not playing well but at 3-9, they are actually better than that record. They have outgained opponents by 26.2 ypg and along with New Orleans, are the only teams in the NFL with losing records that are outgaining opponents. The difference obviously is turnovers where they are -7 but the Rams are not great in that category either at just +2. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (166) Washington Redskins

It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Alabama can get into the College Football Playoff with a victory here so this is a big game for obvious reasons. The Crimson Tide have been very inconsistent this season though as they have annihilated some teams while letting others stick around when they probably shouldn't. They are just 4-8 ATS which shows how much the linesmakers tend to overvalue Alabama and that is the case here and even more so away from home. Missouri has quietly put together a fantastic season, going 10-2 and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak. The Tigers never should have lost to Indiana early in the season and their only bad game of the season came against Georgia. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 719 yards and while Alabama presents the biggest challenge, they have the strong defense that can keep this close. Missouri is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops. Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tide are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (123) Missouri Tigers

It hasn't been the typical strong season for Oklahoma St. and it is in a bad rut right now but at 5-6, it can still become bowl eligible with a victory here so this game is huge. The linesmakers are not giving the Cowboys much of a shot here but in a big rivalry game, anything can happen and we are getting a generous number to work with. This is the highest pointspread in this series since 2001 when Oklahoma St. was getting 27.5 points. This is a 30-point swing from last season and the separation between these two teams has not gotten that big to warrant a line swing like that. Oklahoma is 8-3 on the season but coming in as a National Championship contender, it has been a disappointing season for the Sooners as well. In their last game, they were favored by 25 points over Kansas and it is safe to say that that the Jayhawks are just five points worse than the Cowboys. Here we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Oklahoma St. is 13-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (119) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

We won with Northern Illinois on Saturday as it defeated Western Michigan to gain a berth into the MAC Championship. The Huskies have won six straight games so they are obviously playing their best football of the season but now they go from more than a touchdown underdog to a touchdown favorite and I think that is too big of a move. Bowling Green ended the season with two straight losses but it meant little as the Falcons had already won the MAC East and while they didn't want to lose last time out at home on Senior Day, you could tell the intensity wasn't there. Bowling Green would like nothing more than to win this championship for a second straight season. Last year, No. 14 Northern Illinois entered seeking a third straight championship and in the conversation regarding a Bowl Championship Series game. Bowling Green won in a 47-27 rout, and Northern Illinois was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it lost 21-14 to Utah State. The Huskies would like payback but it isn't going to easy. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Bowling Green Falcons

After going over the total in seven of the first eight weeks, Thursday nights have flipped the switch as four of the last five Thursday primetime games have stayed below the total. We are going against the recent run tonight as we waited on this until weather conditions were confirmed and it is going to be a good night in Chicago. We played on the Dallas under last Thursday which brought it to 4-2-1 to the under at home but the road has been a different story. Not only are the Cowboys winning on the road with a 5-0 record but the last four games on the highway have gone over the total and it has been the offense that has triggered that by scoring 34, 30, 31 and 31 points and after a horrible showing last week against the Eagles, I expect that offense to bounce back against a horrendous Bears defense. Chicago went over the total last Thursday in Detroit and while its last three home games have stayed under, this is easily the best offense it has seen at home over this stretch. Dallas is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after a loss by 14 or more points as a home favorite while the Bears are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the over is 6-0 in the Bears last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) Dallas Cowboys/(102) Chicago Bears

Miami is coming off a hard fought loss in Denver last Sunday and now it goes from close to a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite. The Dolphins need to win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoffs and that is being reflected in this line as we are getting a great amount of value on the home team that is playing for nothing but spoiler. The Dolphins blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead in Denver and that was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 points in 14 years so regrouping from that is a big task. The Jets are coming off a horrible performance in Detroit last Monday against Buffalo and the public has taken notice with Miami being the big betting favorite tonight. The return of Geno Smith at quarterback is an edge as the Miami secondary unit is weakened with the loss of cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan, with rookie Walt Aikens likely to replace one of them in the starting lineup. On the other side, the New York defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and should be able to contain 18th ranked Dolphins offense. Here, we play on home teams after scoring nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (476) New York Jets

Tampa Bay lost in Chicago last week and it now heads home trying to become the final team in the league to win at home as it is 0-5. The Buccaneers have been playing pretty good of late even though the record may not show it as despite being 1-3 in their last four games, the Buccaneers have outgained all four of those opponents. Three of those were no the road and while winless at home, Tampa Bay has lost three of the five home games by one possession including one in overtime. The Bengals have a half-game lead in the AFC North following two straight wins, both of which came on the road so this is their third straight road contest with Pittsburgh on deck, putting them in an awful spot this week. Cincinnati was getting three points at Houston and is now the betting favorite and a big public favorite as well. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage below .250 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. The Buccaneers can easily take this one outright but we will gladly accept the points and even better, a spread that is above a key number. 10* (462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While we like Tampa Bay to win its first home game of the season, we like it getting done in a high scoring game. Again, this is the Bengals third straight road game and that can have a negative impact on the defense which is what happened to the Buccaneers earlier in the season when playing their third straight road game. Additionally, we are getting value based on the recent history of both sides as Cincinnati has gone under in three straight games while Tampa Bay has gone under in five straight games. The Buccaneers offense has been pretty bad for the most part but this is one of those games where they can bust out, similar to what Cleveland did in Atlanta last week. The over is 3-1-1 in the Bengals last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers last five games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also have a fantastic situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving a team after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Going against the recent runs gives us the contrarian angles and also helps us with the number. 10* Over (461) Cincinnati Bengals/(462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans is arguably the most disappointing team in the league as it is 4-7 but because of the poor play of the entire division, it is still tied for first place. The Saints are still on the positive side in scoring differential and they have been outgained only three times all season while overall, they are outgaining opponents by 56.5 ppg,. The reason the record is so bad is because of turnovers as they have won the turnover differential only once all season. They don't have to worry much here though as the Steelers have been nearly as bad in that department as they have won the turnover battle only four times. Pittsburgh is just a half-game out in the AFC North so this game is big for them too but this line is inflated due to the three recent losses for the Saints, all coming at home, and their known struggles on the road. Despite a 1-4 record on the road, three of those losses have been by three points or less. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while New Orleans is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. While this is considered a must win for both sides, the Steelers have Cincinnati on deck next week presenting the possibility of a divisional lookahead game. 10* (465) New Orleans Saints