Sports Picks & Predictions

The Browns have been involved in three straight games that have been decided by three points, the last two coming in overtime, and overall they have gone 1-2 in those games. Cleveland is 2-4 and this is a huger game with a home game against Arizona on deck and then four straight divisional games. The Rams are coming off their bye week which could be a good thing as they were defeated in Green Bay by two touchdowns but the bye week is not what it used to be. It has been close to a month since the Rams were home last which is a big reason they are favored by this many points. St. Louis has certainly improved but the big chalk has not been kind as they failed to cover their last two in this role and anything over a field goal is huge. Cleveland falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 that are coming off a road loss and playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

The Patriots are coming off a big win last week in Indianapolis which was a big retribution game from the AFC Championship despite having won that game last season. They seem to be on a mission right now but we cannot ignore the fact they have defeated only one team with a winning record and that was the opener of the season against Pittsburgh in an eclectic atmosphere at home. Even though this is a return game at home in a divisional battle, there is a sense of a letdown which is certainly not going on with the other side. The Jets are 4-1 and playing with confidence following consecutive wins over Washington and Miami which may be considered poor wins but are not considered victories to turn into letdowns. This is big number for New England to be laying in a divisional game against a team that is just one game back as it is once again a big pubic play. The Jets defense has been one of the best in the league this season and while shutting the Patriots down in not likely, slowing them down certainly is. And this is one of the better Jets offenses we have seen in a while so the potential is there to keep up. New York has covered four straight games against winning teams while going back, has covered four straight games in this series. 10* (459) New York Jets

Had the Colts won last week against New England, this game would be off the radar but the fact they lost, it puts them in a great situation at home. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight divisional games so they are again in great position in the AFC South but they cannot be giving up any more non-divisional games. The Colts three losses have come against teams .500 or better so the fact that they have been outgained in every game this season cushions it somewhat. Now Indianapolis faces a team that has won the yardage battle just once this season, against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys. The Saints are coming off an upset win against division rival Atlanta and hitting the road is not a good thing here. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams averaging 5.65 or more yppl and they fall into a great situation where we play on favorites that are allowing 7.5 or more passing ypa, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a victory while going 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. 10* (468) Indianapolis Colts

We played the over in the Vikings/Chiefs game last week and it didn't come close as only 26 points were scored and that resulted in the first five games of their season going under the total. We are going contrarian here as they face a pretty rough defense while their own defense will be challenged here. The Lions are coming off an overtime win over the Bears as they scored a season-high 37 points following four straight games where they tallied 17 points or fewer. Detroit has outgained the last two opponents and being home in its third straight game presents another great opportunity to keep the offense rolling. The Lions are 6-0 to the over in their last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while Minnesota falls into a contrarian league-wide situation where we play the over involving any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off one or more consecutive unders, with defense that is allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 73-40 (64.6 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Weakness against weakness is a strong edge for the Vikings offense here that has scored just 23 combined road points and going against the last four unders in this series serves a contrarian angle as well. 10* Over (461) Minnesota Vikings/(462) Detroit Lions

As mentioned last week, probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 364.2 ypg and 23.5 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense so the fact they have gone over the total in all six games is very surprising. Last Sunday, it took a high scoring second half which included a defensive score after a 10-point first half and then produced overtime on top of that. The Rams boast a very strong defense and while not as stringent as the Broncos, it is still a top ten unit. Offensively, St. Louis is one of the worst in the NFL as it is ranked second to last in both total offense and scoring offense so as much as the Browns have struggled at times on defense, do not expect much here for the Rams as they have scored 10 points or less in three of five games. Cleveland falls into a solid situation where we play the under involving road teams against the total that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (453) Cleveland Browns/(454) St. Louis Rams

Florida Atlantic looks to grab its second win of the season with the first coming against Charlotte which is in its first full year in the FBS. The Owls won and covered that game despite getting outgained by the 49ers and while they come in after suffering a couple close losses, they are overpriced here. They have been a horrible favorite of late, going 11-22 in their last 33 games as a favorite. UTEP has been a major disappointment thus far as it is 2-4 and was expected to contend for a second straight bowl game. While that is certainly still a possibility, this is a must win situation. The Miners need a statement win, and although a win against the second-to-last place team in the conference might not impress most, it could work as a confidence boost that the team desperately needs. Although the Miners have struggled, the team remains positive. The team is taking their losses, but not losing sight of the good things they have accomplished. UTEP is coming off its bye week and head coach Sean Kugler conveyed that it was a very productive week off where coaches did self evaluations on players and units to try and make improvements all-around. The Miners are one of a couple teams in the country that have yet to cover a game this season, going 0-5-1 ATS so it is not a huge surprise they are the underdogs here based on that reason. Going back, they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 28 or more points while the Owls are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (404) UTEP Miners

Old Dominion is coming off a win last week against Charlotte as it spotted the 49ers early leads but came back to move to 3-3 on the season including 1-1 in C-USA. The Monarchs did not play a great game as they were outgained by 54 yards but did enough in the passing game to pull out the victory. They now hit the road where they are 1-1 and look to get back over .500 after starting the season 2-0 prior to losing three straight games. They have been underdogs in three of their last four games including the lone road game at Marshall which is 6-1 and was favored by roughly only three points more than what they are getting here. That has a lot to do with the fact Old Dominion has yet to cover a game this season and the public is flocking the other side which is inflating this line. Florida International is coming off a loss against Middle Tennessee to fall to 3-4 on the season and 1-2 in the conference. The Golden Panthers do come in with a 2-0 record at home but both of those opponents are not in the same group with Old Dominion. The Monarchs match up well here as they face a very tough passing offense but lately, the Monarchs have had a better pass defense as they have allowed only 195.8 ypg through the air over their last five matchups. The Golden Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (387) Old Dominion Monarchs

Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores

Tennessee is coming off a win in its last two against Georgia which happened to be two weeks ago so the extra time heading into this game is a big benefit. That was the first conference win of the season for the Volunteers after losing two straight games and at 3-3, this is arguably the best three-loss team in the nation. One loss came to Oklahoma in overtime after blowing a 17-0 lead while the other two losses against Arkansas and Florida by a combined five points after blowing double-digit leads in each of those games as well. Tennessee has lost eight straight meetings against Alabama but this is probably the best team since the 2007 squad that started the skid. The Crimson Tide lost against Mississippi, which is becoming even more shocking with the recent struggles of the Rebels, but the Tide have since buckled up and produced four straight double-digit victories. They are a game back in the SEC West and it happens to be against LSU which Alabama travels to in its next game. All in all, this is a bad spot for Alabama from a situational standpoint and while many will deny this is a winnable game for Tennessee, it would not surprise me for Tennessee to keep this one closer than most expect. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian rushing situation as we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a defense that is allowing 2.75 or fewer rushing ypc, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1992. Also, Tennessee is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where it forced one or fewer turnovers. 10* (349) Tennessee Volunteers

Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies

We played against Central Michigan last week and it was certainly a poor call as the Chippewas rolled Buffalo at home but we are going against them this week on the road. One of the big reasons is the fact that Central Michigan is a perfect 7-0 ATS on the season, the best record against the number in the country. That is factoring into this line as the Chippewas come in as a large road chalk, the first time they have been favored on the road all season after being underdogs in all three previous games, all resulting in losses. Ball St. meanwhile has lost four straight games which is also playing into the line. The Cardinals opened the conference season with a win against Eastern Michigan but then lost to Toledo and Northern Illinois, arguably the two best teams in the MAC before getting upset last week at home against Georgia St. which was clearly a letdown spot after those two conference losses. Toledo is a ranked team, coming in at No. 19 this week, yet the Rockets were favored by fewer points than what the Chippewas are favored by on this same field. Ball St. falls into a great contrarian situation based on recent results as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game going up against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 23-6 ATS (79.3 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (318) Ball St. Cardinals

We played on Syracuse and Virginia to go under the total last Saturday and it was one of the worst total beats you will see. It went over the total by 31 points which may not seem like a bad beat at all but consider the fact that after scoreless first quarter, 35 fourth quarter points were scored including two defensive touchdowns. Then the game was sent into overtime on a field goal as time expired and then 34 overtime points were scored. That made it six straight games that have gone over the total to start the season after closing last season with six straight unders. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a high scoring game against Georgia Tech which is also playing into this total. The number this week is slightly higher than it was last week despite playing a Syracuse offense that is ranked 110th in the nation in total offense compared to the Yellow Jackets being ranked 61st in total offense. Georgia Tech does have a better defense but not much as it is ranked 52nd compared to 69th for Syracuse. This has been a very low scoring series of late, averaging 32.3 ppg with all three of those staying well below the total. Going back, Syracuse is 25-11 to the under in its last 36 games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Panthers last seven games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (325) Pittsburgh Panthers/(326) Syracuse Orange

Memphis came away with a big win for us last Saturday as it defeated Mississippi by 13 points as a 10-point home underdog and now the Tigers have caught the attention of many, including the linesmakers. They are in a very rare situation where they go from a double-digit home underdog to a double-digit road favorite which is a massive swing from one game to the next in a span of a week. While Memphis may have dominated the scoreboard against the Rebels, they only outgained them by 11 total yards but it was a signature win that spells letdown this week. Tulsa lost at East Carolina last week by 13 points and it was the first score of the game that was the difference. The Pirates picked off a pass and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown which was a 14-point swing. The Golden Hurricane won the yardage battle by 81 yards so overall, we are seeing this line move being based on the scoreboard and not what was inside the game book. the Golden Hurricane are lead by an offense that ranks sixth nationally in total yards. Quarterback Dane Evans has thrown for more than 2,000 yards, and wide receiver Josh Atkinson is working on a five game streak with more than 100 yards receiving while Keyarris Garrett is the leading receiver with 698 yards. Either or both could be in for a big game against the Tigers, who let Mississippi star receiver Laquon Treadwell run rampant on Saturday. Treadwell had his best game of the season against Memphis, catching a career-high 14 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. 10* (312) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Last week we saw a home underdog cash and win outright as New Orleans handed Atlanta its first loss of the season and while we always respect primetime home underdogs, this week's situation is a lot different. Whether Seattle is going through a Super Bow hangover has yet to be determined but the Seahawks have missed out on numerous chances to have a better record than their current 2-4 shows. Their four fourth-quarter blown leads are not only the most in the league this season but they are the most any team has suffered in its first six games since the 1999 Saints. Making matters worse, Seattle is being outscored 55-27 in the fourth quarter, the second-worst differential in the NFL. Not to defend the collapses much but the Seahawks have faced the second-toughest schedule of any team so far and should have ample opportunities to make up ground in the NFC playoff race as they have only four games left against teams currently above .500. The 49ers have had a rough start as well but theirs was expected. They are 2-4 as well and despite winning last week against Baltimore, they have lost four of five and have been outgained in all five games by a combined 674 total yards. Playing a second straight home game leading into Thursday night helps but there are too many weaknesses on this team and much better San Francisco teams from the recent past have had no success against Seattle, losing five of the last six meetings. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks

We won with the Appalachian St./ULM over last Saturday as the Mountaineers offense paced the way to put up 59 points and a big victory to move to 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. They are a game out of first place, trailing Arkansas St. which won on Tuesday night, and Georgia Southern which makes this a big matchup for both sides. The Eagles are riding a five-game winning streak and have been dominant with their wins as they have outscored the opponents by 26, 35, 24, 20 and 30 points. Both teams feature two great rushing offenses as the Eagles are averaging 7.1 ypc and the Mountaineers are averaging 6.0 ypc so there certainly will be movement. Appalachian St. has the edge on the other side as it is holding opponents to just 3.2 ypc on defense and playing at home can make a bigger difference also. This is a revenge game for Appalachian St. but not just because it lost by 20 points last season. The Mountaineers have had this game circled for over a year as in last season's 34-14 victory in Statesboro, the Eagles gashed the Mountaineers for 408 yards on 60 rushes. More importantly, it was a night that has stuck with a few of the Mountaineers thanks to what they perceived as vulgar chants and things being thrown by Eagles fans. They also fall into a great situation where we play on home teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (306) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This line has risen a significant amount since opening at -6.5 and we will take advantage of the value. These teams are fairly equal as far as power rankings and both came into the season in position to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas St. is coming off a win last Tuesday at South Alabama and it was a fairly fortunate win as it was an 18-point victory thanks to 29 fourth quarter points that included two defensive touchdowns. That moved the Cajuns to 2-0 in the conference and while playing with double revenge, this defense is bad enough to keep the backdoor open. Louisiana won its conference opener for the eighth straight season and it has the edge of having a few extra days off to recover from some injuries. The Cajuns are averaging 433.6 ypg on the season which is 44th in the country so the offense matches up well with this defense. The Cajuns are 4-0 in Tuesday night games since 2013, including a 3-0 mark on the road. They fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Louisiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win against the spread. Meanwhile, Arkansas St. is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 games against teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing ypc. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

The Giants are arguably the best two-loss team in the NFL. You can make a case for Arizona which lost yesterday and is still +88 in point differential but New York is the team that could very well be 6-0 right now if not for two fourth quarter gaffes that cost them. The NFC East remains wide open and when looking at divisional games, the typical spread is three points which is the home field edge but this one has gone north of that. While the Giants may be a surprise, the Eagles have been a disappointment although they finally put together their best game of the season last week against the Saints and momentum is a big thing. However, the Giants also has their most lopsided games within the numbers last week against the 49ers as they outgained San Francisco by 145 total yards despite the narrow three-point win. The Giants are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg while going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games after a win by six points or less. Under Tom Coughlin, New York is 22-7 ATS after two or more straight win and the Giants fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Look for the Giants to stay within this inflated number and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (275) New York Giants

This is one of the most highly anticipated games of the early season as it is a rematch of last season's AEC Championship and the infamous "Deflategate". Many are pointing toward the Patriots out to seek revenge and prove a point that cheating was not part of that game but that is far from a motivator in my opinion. Extra motivation is not needed in this matchup and if anything, it will be the Colts out to avenge that 38-point thrashing last January. After a 0-2 start, the Colts came upon three straight divisional games and they won them all with two of those coming with Matt Hasselbeck playing quarterback. Andrew Luck is back this week and while his success against the Patriots has been lacking as he has never defeated them, things could be different here. New England looks to be on a mission and while it looks unbeatable right now, this number makes no sense. The Patriots were favored by a touchdown at home last year and now being favored by even more than that on the road this time around is too much of an adjustment. After defeating Pittsburgh in an ideal situation to open the season, the Patriots have had a very favorable schedule facing two teams with new starting quarterbacks and hosting Jacksonville. The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better while going 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Additionally, we play against road favorites outgaining opponents by 70 or more passing ypg on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 70-33 ATS (68 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Indianapolis Colts

Not many are giving the Chargers a chance here and that includes the linesmakers. San Diego is off to a rough start this season as it sits 2-3 following a loss as time expired on Monday night against the Steelers. That was a game they could have won as was a game at Cincinnati earlier in the season so they are better than their record indicated. That is proven by the fact they have outgained four of five opponents and the only negative margin came against the Bengals by just 35 total yards. The schedule has been on the side of the Packers as after opening against the lowly Bears, this is the fourth time in the last five games they have been at home and with a bye week on deck, they should be fully focused which we won't deny. But laying this kind of lumber against a team that moves the ball very well is simply too much. Green Bay is the lone 5-0 ATS team in the NFL and that is also playing a role with this number. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards but the key here could be the running game as Todd Gurley ran roughshod through the Packers defense last weekend and Melvin Gordon could be in line for a monster game as he has four runs of 20-plus yards. Stopping Aaron Rodgers will not happen but this has the makings of a shootout and San Diego can no doubt keep up. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams allowing 6 or more yppl and it falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 7 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (269) San Diego Chargers

Miami is off to a dismal 1-3 start and following its most recent loss in London, the Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin and gave the interim position to Dan Campbell and we will see a very inspired effort from the team. Players in all sports tend to step it up when a new coach takes over and the Dolphins will be no different this week as this is much win game to keep any sort of playoff hopes alive. Tennessee let one slip away last week against the Bills as it fell to 1-3 including losses in each of the its three games. The Titans have blown double-digit leads in the last two games and confidence is shaky right now. Miami is ranked 28th in total offense at 314.8 ypg and second-to-last in rushing at 69.3 ypg. Ryan Tannehill's 56.7 completion percentage and 77.1 passer rating are both among the worst in the NFL, while Lamar Miller's averaging 3.5 ypc after posting a career-best 5.1 in 2014. While it looks bleak, the Dolphins face a very poor Titans defense. Tennessee is in a tough spot where it has not had success as it is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a losing record while going 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games coming off one or more consecutive losses. Miami meanwhile falls into two excellent league-wide situations. First, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Miami Dolphins

Cleveland seems to be relevant again as it sits 2-3 on the season but a couple breaks here and there and the Browns could feasibly be 4-1 with the lone bad game coming against the Jets in their season opener. They are coming off a big win last Sunday in overtime against the Ravens and this is the first of three straight non-divisional games prior to playing four straight games against AFC North foes. The Broncos escaped once again to improve to 5-0 on the season and they arguably remain the worst remaining undefeated team in the NFL. They are outgaining opponents by less than 25 ypg as the offense remains very inconsistent. The Broncos are averaging 302 ypg which is 30th overall while their seven interceptions, all on Peyton Manning, sits 31st. Manning's 79 pass attempts against the blitz rank second most in the NFL, according to STATS, LLC. He's on pace to throw 212 passes against blitzes, more than any quarterback last season while his 12 passing plays of more than 20 yards ranks 26th and he has completed only five of 19 passes of at least 21 yards. The running game is not helping out as Denver is averaging just 71. 6 ypg which is 30th in the league. The Browns will face one the best defenses in the league but the Broncos will be without linebacker Demarcus Ware while cornerback Aqib Talib has an ankle injury and could be out as well. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (252) Cleveland Browns

Probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 377.4 ypg and 23.6 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked eighth in total offense and 13th in scoring offense but now they face a big test in the Broncos defense which leads the league in fewest yards allowed and is second in scoring defense. Even with Demarcus Ware sitting this one out and Aqib Talib hurting with an ankle injury, Cleveland should have a difficult time consistently moving the ball here. While the Browns defense has been very poor, don't expect Denver to fare too well. The Broncos are averaging 302 ypg which is 30th overall while their seven interceptions, all on Peyton Manning, sits 31st. Manning's 79 pass attempts against the blitz rank second most in the NFL, according to STATS, LLC. He's on pace to throw 212 passes against blitzes, more than any quarterback last season while his 12 passing plays of more than 20 yards ranks 26th and he has completed only five of 19 passes of at least 21 yards. The running game is not helping out as Denver is averaging just 71. 6 ypg which is 30th in the league. Cleveland has gone over the total in all five of its games which is adding value to this total. The Browns are 6-0 to the under in their last six games against winning teams and both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in conference games, off a division game. This situation is 169-111 ATS (60.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Under (251) Denver Broncos/(252) Cleveland Browns

Kansas City has lost four straight games following a season opening win and now has to move forward without the services of running back Jamaal Charles. While that seems to hurt the offense, it could very do the opposite at least early on as it should open things up. The Chiefs are coming off a very low scoring games against the Bears but it needs to be noted that the first four games of the season all went over the total. The real issue is the defense as the Chiefs went through a stretch of allowing 31, 38 and 36 points three consecutive games and while the Vikings offense isn't perceived as a strong one, they should have great success here. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has learned to slide and move up in the pocket when his edge blockers don't hold and he can exploit the lack of depth in the Chiefs secondary by working out of three-wide sets. And of course there is Adrian Peterson who is averaging 113.7 ypg and is capable of breaking a long one every time he touches the ball. Minnesota has gone under the total in all four of its games so we are bucking that trend in what looks to be a good matchup on both sides for the offense. Kansas City is 22-9 to the over in its last 31 games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992 while Minnesota is 18-7 to the over in its last 25 games off a cover where it lost as an underdog. Additionally, Kansas City falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game where we play the over involving road teams that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 78-41 (65.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (255) Kansas City Chiefs/(256) Minnesota Vikings

The Steelers are back home following a win Monday night on the west coast over San Diego as time ran out which brought it to 3-2 on the season as it looks to keep pace with the Bengals until Ben Roethlisberger gets back. While the defense has been getting some bad pub, it has actually been holding its own as the Steelers have allowed 16.8 ppg over their last four games. They will be challenged here against the Cardinals that are averaging 38 ppg which is the highest in the NFL but they have been fortunate to square off against some very bad defenses. The one defense that held them in check was the Rams and expect another inconsistent effort here. On the other side, the Steelers offense has been pretty bad with Michael Vick at quarterback. He did nothing against Baltimore as Pittsburgh put up just 263 yards and against the Chargers, it posted just 349 yards with the majority of that being in the final two scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Arizona has a very strong defense as it is ranked eighth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense, allowing 332.4 ypg and 18.0 ppg respectively. The Cardinals have gone over in all five games so we are again bucking a season opening trend with the value sitting on the other side. Additionally, the Cardinals fall into a situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under involving teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after having won three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 33-11 (75 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (263) Arizona Cardinals/(264) Pittsburgh Steelers

Georgia last lost two straight games to fall from out of playoff consideration and this feels like the game that the offense is going to explode. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.3 ppg on the season while putting up 451.3 ypg and with the absence of running back Nick Chubb, we should see the Bulldogs air the ball out more. Georgia now is seeing its smallest total of the season and one that is close to two touchdowns lower than that of last week. Part of that is due to the opponent as Missouri has struggled on offense in half of its games but the potential is there against a defense that has been gashed the last two games. The total is low as expected because of the inconsistent offense with another reason being the Tigers going under the total in all six of their games this season. Quarterback Maty Mauk will not be in uniform against and freshman Drew Lock will be making his third start which is typically the time quarterbacks start becoming more comfortable. His first start came against South Carolina and Georgia's defense is more in line with the Gamecocks defense as opposed to Florida who he faced last week and struggled. The Gatos defense is ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Missouri falls into a great situation for a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 coming off three or more consecutive unders, and averaging between 16.5 and 21 ppg going up against teams averaging 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 32-10 (76.2 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (165) Missouri Tigers/(166) Georgia Bulldogs

Appalachian St. is coming off its first conference win over Georgia St. as it hung 37 points on the Panthers as the offense remains explosive. The Mountaineers played a game against Clemson and its 13th ranked defense so take that game out and they are averaging 41.5 ppg and surpassing that number this week should be no issue. They face a ULM defense that is allowing 412.8 ypg and 34 ppg, 87th and 101st in the nation respectively so there will once again be little resistance. Surprisingly, Appalachian St. has stayed under the total in all five of its games but the matchups have had a lot to do with that and this one screams over. The Warhawks offense has been pretty solid against like opposition as take out games against Georgia and Alabama and they are averaging 34 ppg in their other three games. They will be facing a tough defense so it is not going to be easy for ULM but playing at home certainly helps and we are not asking them to even come close to that 34 ppg average as most of the points will be coming from the other side. The Warhawks have gone under the total in three of their last four which is also because of matchups. This week, the Mountaineers are seeing their lowest posted total and ULM is seeing its second lowest. The over is 28-13-1 in the Warhawks last 42 games against teams with a winning record including a 4-0 over run in their four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This one should fly over the number. 10* Over (185) Appalachian St. Mountaineers/(186) ULM Warhawks

Both Oklahoma and Kansas St. are coming off disappointing losses last weekend but the Sooners are the team that will be able to recover based on how they happened last Saturday and what is at stake on both sides. The Sooners obviously did not take Texas serious as they fell behind early and could not recover in time. Kansas St. meanwhile blew an 18-point lead and after falling behind in the fourth quarter, the Wildcats tied the game only to allow a huge touchdown with a minute remain to fall to the Horned Frogs. That is a very difficult loss to recover from and I don't think they will recover. Even the Sooners have a loss, they are far from done as they still get to play No. 2 Baylor, No. 3 TCU and unbeaten No. 16 Oklahoma State. They are using Ohio St.'s example from last season as a rallying cry and they have not lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following losses. There is additional motivation here as Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas St. by a point last season which was the fourth straight season the road team has won in this series and while we are not into road revenge that much, the recent history shows the home edge simply is not there. The Sooners have won 12 of their last 13 true road games and they are 16-5 ATS over their last 21 games after scoring 20 points or fewer last game. 10* (167) Oklahoma Sooners

Teams tend to have a bad beat or two per season but it has been ridiculous for Nebraska this year. The Huskers are 2-4 on the season with those four losses coming by a combined 11 points as they have lost all four games in the final seconds. This year's four losses have come on a Hail Mary by BYU with no time left, in overtime against Miami and with 10 seconds left against Illinois and 4 seconds left against Wisconsin. Turning all of those around is tough to comprehend but this teams is four plays away from being a perfect 6-0 and while losing this way is difficult, the confidence is there knowing how close they are. SMU in 2007 is the only FBS team besides Nebraska to lose four games in a season in the last 10 seconds or overtime, according to STATS records dating to 1996. The reality is that new coach Mike Riley's team must win four of its last six games just to become bowl eligible. Minnesota has been on the opposite end for the most part as three of its four wins have come by three points. The Gophers exploded for 41 points last week against Purdue but this offense is not very good and will not be as successful against the Huskers who are out for double-revenge following losses the last two years. Nebraska has covered nine of its last 11 road games and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing 450 or more yards while Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following a win. 10* (163) Nebraska Cornhuskers

We were on Michigan St. last weekend and lost as the Spartans won at Rutgers but were unable to cover the two-touchdown spread. People are getting very down on Michigan St. right now as it has yet to put together a complete game where it has dominated and no one is giving the Spartans a chance here as well. This line opened at -6.5 and has moved over a touchdown as of Tuesday afternoon and going back shows how much the public perception has shifted. When this line came out over the summer, the Spartans were a 4.5-point favorite so we are seeing close to a two-touchdown shift which is enormous. Of course, the way Michigan is playing has a lot to do with that as well. The Wolverines lost their season opener at Utah but have won five straight games since then, allowing a grand total of 14 points including posting a shutout in three straight games. This is no doubt impressive but the fact that Michigan St. has yet to lose makes this too big of an adjustment in my opinion. Despite winning the final two games by just 10 points combined, the Spartans outgained Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 245 yards so while the scoreboard isn't showing it, they are doing just fine. They have covered eight straight road games following two straight conference wins and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (173) Michigan St. Spartans

We have played against Old Dominion a couple times this season as it was routed by NC State and then got shut out against Appalachian St. 49-0. Following a loss by 20 points against Marshall, the Monarchs fell to 2-3 while failing to cover any of those games. That is a streak we like to play against as the law of averages is on our side and with that record, the value of the line is clearly on our side. Old Dominion would not be this small of a favorite has it covered at least two of their games but that is the case here. Making this an even better spot is the fact that the Monarchs are coming off a bye week and in desperate need of a win. They lost record breaking quarterback Taylor Heinicke which was a big part of playing against them early on but Shuler Bentley has a great opportunity here against a poor defense with two weeks to prepare. Charlotte opened its first season the FBS with a pair of wins but one of those came against an FCS team and the other came against 1-4 Georgia St. The 49ers have since dropped their last three games, getting outscored by a combined 127-24 and while they are also coming off a bye week, the talent is not in place to succeed just yet. The Monarchs were bowl eligible last season in their first year in FBS but were not invited to go so they are playing with a chip on their shoulders and a blowout win is what they need to make a second half run against some very weak teams. 10* (188) Old Dominion Monarchs

Virginia opened the season with an under against UCLA with the closing total being 53. Since then, the Cavaliers have had no games go under the total and all of those closed in the 40's. On the other side, Syracuse is a perfect 5-0 to the over on the season and like Virginia, all of those totals closed in the 40's. Because of the high scoring games (Syracuse is averaging 55.6 ppg and Virginia is averaging 58 ppg) the total this week is the highest both teams have seen. Granted the total is still below what each team is averaging in its games but because the number is way above what they are accustomed with, the value is big. The defenses of both sides are not great but the offenses do not have much going for them and will still find it tough going. Syracuse is 108th in total offense while Virginia is 99th in total offense and typically when a poor offense goes up against a poor defense, the latter succeeds more the majority of the time. Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester has struggled to establish the run early in the last couple games, but don't expect him to abandon course with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback. Running back Jordan Fredericks should test a Virginia defense that's allowed more than 4.5 ypc this season and of course, more running the better as it eats more clock. Syracuse is 31-12 to the under in its last 43 games after being outgained by 17 or more total yards in its previous game while Virginia has gone 8-1-1 to the under in its last 10 ACC games. 10* Under (137) Syracuse Orange/(138) Virginia Cavaliers

We lost by playing against Central Michigan last week as we were on Western Michigan but got backdoored as the Broncos allowed 20 fourth quarter points. We are going against the Chippewas again this week as they go from close to a touchdown underdog to over a touchdown favorite and the quality of opposition is not that much different while home field advantage is not that big in the MAC. Central Michigan is overpriced here for the simple fact that it has covered every game this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS and we are bucking that trend once again. Buffalo has dropped two straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season and it has been a strange season for the Bulls. They outgained Nevada by 108 yards yet lost at home no thanks to a -3 turnover margin while the other two losses against Penn St. and Bowling Green, two very quality teams, they were outgained by just 90 total yards combined. Buffalo has covered all three games as an underdog which I think is being overlooked here. They are outscoring opponents by close to a touchdown and outgaining opponents overall which certainly makes them a strong underdog. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 120 or fewer ypg rushing while going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record. We have a rushing dog that can win this one outright. 10* (123) Buffalo Bulls

We won with Tulsa last week as it snapped a two-game skid against ULM and while it takes up a step in class here, this is close to a 21-point line swing and that is simply too big of a move involving a quality team like the Golden Hurricane. As mentioned last week, they lost to Oklahoma by just 14 points as a 31.5-point underdog and they were in that game for the most part as they were down by just seven points late in the third quarter before the Sooners ran off two straight touchdowns. The other loss came by 14 points against 5-0 and No. 24 Houston. Overall, Tulsa is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, averaging 568 ypg. East Carolina lost a ton of talent from last season but it is holding its own as it won against Virginia Tech and had narrow losses against Florida and BYU but now the Pirates are favored by the most they have been favored by this season against a team from the FBS. They have covered three straight but two of those were as double-digit underdogs and the other as a less than touchdown favorite. Tulsa has covered five of its last six road games while East Carolina is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games with a total great than 70 showing it struggles against potent offenses while going 0-6 ATS in its last six games after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 10* (181) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a great spot for Memphis. One of the best scenarios is playing a home underdog than can actually move the ball and score as the Tigers can certainly do that. It means they can keep up throughout the game and if need be, the back door is always wide open. Memphis is off to a 5-0 start and while this is the toughest opponent to dated, the line is reflecting that and to be honest, this is far from the same SEC we are accustomed to. The Tigers are ranked eighth in the country in total offense while ranked fourth in scoring offense, averaging 47.8 ppg. The defense is banged up and not very good to begin with but the offense can make up for it. Mississippi is coming off a blowout win over New Mexico St. in its last game as it wasn't challenged at all and that can be good or bad and in this case, it could be a detriment. With a home game on deck against Texas A&M, the Rebels could easily be looking ahead to that game. Everyone will look at their win on the road at Alabama but that is game they were more jacked up for and you can also point to the blowout loss at Florida. We aren't comparing Memphis to those two SEC teams but this is a legitimately very good team, especially at home where it has won seven of its last eight. Memphis is coming off a bye which is a big edge as well. 10* (206) Memphis Tigers

Fresno St. is supposed to contend in the West Division of the MWC but it is off to a 0-3 start and time is running out. The good news is that the West Division is by far the weaker of the two divisions so all is not lost just yet. A loss here however and the Bulldogs are done so this is the biggest game of the season thus far. They have dropped their last five games and none have even been close so that is a big reason they are a home underdog here. Additionally, Fresno St. has failed to cover all five of these games but this is by far the most winnable of the bunch and is an underdog once again. UNLV is a rare road favorite despite being just one game better than the Bulldogs and while it has covered all three road games, the Rebels have been the underdog by at least a touchdown in all of those. UNLV is 3-8 straight up as a road favorite going all the way back to 2004 which shows not only lack of success but also lack of opportunity. The Bulldogs will be out for payback as well as they will be out to avenge a loss in Las Vegas last season in overtime, snapping a 10-game winning streak in this series. Fresno St. is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after gaining 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games while under head coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS against teams that are averaging 4.75 or more rushing ypc. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (118) Fresno St. Bulldogs

The Falcons remained undefeated with an overtime win over Washington last Sunday and now they hit the road on short rest over their biggest rival that is in desperate need of a victory. Atlanta failed to cover for the first time this season last week and they are a road favorite here for the first time since 2012 and are a road favorite anywhere for the first time since last season. The Saints picked up their first win of the season two weeks ago in overtime against Dallas which snapped a six-game home losing streak but gave it back last week against the Eagles who were in a similar spot as they were in desperate need of a win, Predicting turnovers is next to impossible but the law of averages tend to even things out as the season progresses or in better terms, cuts down the true extrapolation. Basically, teams that are +5 in turnover margin are not likely going to finish +15 and teams -5 are not likely going to finish -15. That being said, these teams are on opposite ends of turnover margin as the Falcons are +5 and the Saints are -5 and the records are reflective of this. And because of those records, lines are affected and we are seeing that here. This also works on a game-by-game basis as the Saints have a favorable situation on their side as we play against favorites after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Falcons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and while the Saints have struggled at home against poor teams, going back, they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (104) New Orleans Saints

Auburn snuck by San Jose St. in its last game to fall to 0-5 ATS on the season so the value continues to be there despite recent close calls. Going back, the Tigers have failed to cover their last 10 games which is pretty hard to do. The Tigers are coming off a bye week which came at a great time coming off a narrow win over a nonconference opponent and now getting back into SEC play. Quarterback Sean White was limited against the Spartans as he made only 10 passes but that part of the offenses wasn't needed. He has progressed well with learning the playbook during the bye week. Kentucky is coming off its bye also and the Wildcats are off to a solid 4-1 start but the wins have been pretty unimpressive. All four wins have come by eight points or less including an overtime win over Eastern Kentucky of the FCS in their last game. Kentucky has not played a difficult schedule either with Florida being the toughest of the bunch while Auburn has played the 15th toughest schedule in the nation. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a home win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 7-0 ATS in his seven road games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher. 10* (105) Auburn Tigers

Arkansas St. and South Alabama are both coming off season opening conference wins last weekend with the winner Tuesday moving into a first place tie with Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt Conference. The Red Wolves are winless on the road but those games came against Toledo and USC as this marks the first winnable game on the highway. Arkansas St. won the conference in 2012 and was picked along with Georgia Southern and Appalachian St. to contend this season. Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten will return after missing the last three games and his return will be huge as he was sensational last season with over 3,00 yards passing and over 1,000 rushing, excluding sacks. South Alabama snuck by Troy, picked to finish 10th in the conference, for its first conference victory but not much is expected from the Jaguars after losing so much from last season. They returned just five starters from last season's 6-7 team and while they have three wins, none were against top caliber competition and they were blown out against upper class opposition. The big edge here is the balance of the Red Wolves as they average 193 ypg rushing, 202 ypg passing and 30.4 ppg. Last year's meeting in Jonesboro, Arkansas, was a blowout as Knighten accounted for 266 yards and three touchdowns rushing and passing in a 45-10 Arkansas St. win. While revenge will come into play, there is just not enough talent on the South Alabama side to counter. Going back, the Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against team with a winning record while the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

The Chargers have failed to cover three straight games and while that is typically a run I like to go against, this suspect line sets up for a play on the Steelers. With Michael Vick at quarterback for the Steelers, the public is fading them yet the line has barely moved and even with Vick, Pittsburgh has numerous matchup advantages here. He only had a couple of practices to fit into the offense before the Baltimore debacle but now has had a week-and-a-half leading the first string, so the hope is that Vick finds himself on the same page as his receivers. The Chargers are ranked 29th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 126.8 ypg and an NFL high 4.9 ypc. They have allowed two 100-yard rushers in the past three games which will benefit Le'Veon Bell, who had 129 yards rushing on 22 carries against a Baltimore defense that had not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the previous 29 games. Defensively, the Steelers have 14 sacks in four games which puts them on pace for 64 for the season, almost double their 2014 total of 33 sacks. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has been sacked 12 times, second most in the AFC, and the pressure has resulted in two of his four interceptions being returned for touchdowns. San Diego has covered just one in its last 11 games against AFC opponents while Pittsburgh is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games against teams averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa. Additionally, the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and that comes down to coaching which is another significant edge for Pittsburgh tonight. Anything over the key number of +3 is a solid take for tonight. 10* (475) Pittsburgh Steelers

Six undefeated teams remain in the NFL and we can argue that more than half of those could easily have a defeat right now and some even more. Denver is on that list for sure. The Broncos trailed the Ravens late but used a 51-yard interception return for a touchdown to take the lead and then used a fumble return for a touchdown against the Chiefs for a similar result. Denver outscored Detroit 10-0 in the fourth quarter to pull away from the Lions while last week, it needed a field goal with less than two minutes left to defeat the Vikings. Not saying they should be 0-4 but they are very fortunate to be undefeated and now they hit the road and are favorites against a very improved Oakland team. The Raiders are 2-2 and the talent is there to try and make a run as they finally have playmakers on offense. Despite getting outgained by 128 yards last week in Chicago, it was a game they could have won. It was their second straight road game in the midwest which is never an easy task especially with a pair of divisional games on deck but heading home against a vulnerable Denver team will have them extremely fired up and a chance to get right back in the division. Just looking at the line shows us how much the gapped has closed between these tow teams. Denver has been favored by double-digits in each of the last five meetings and now is favored by a much lower number and that shows us it is take time as Oakland has the potential to win the first meeting in this series since September, 2011. Going back, the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and have covered four of their last five at home. Oakland has not covered a game in this series since that last win in 2011 and we can see both streaks come to an end here. 10* (472) Oakland Raiders

We played against Seattle on Monday night and grabbed the cover but we will be backing the Seahawks this week as they can use the break they attained to carry some momentum into this big game. By now everyone has heard the situation that possibly cost the Lions at outright win and saved Seattle from falling to 1-3 and while that is not an insurmountable hole, sitting at 2-2 is a lot better and moving to 3-2 here would be huge after a 0-2 start to the season. The Seahawks remain the favorites to win the division and while the host is 4-0 in their games this season, that should come to an end this week. Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start and many are calling the Bengals one of the best teams on the league but I am not sold on this team quite yet. The rolled over Oakland but had trouble with San Diego and Baltimore before pulling away from Kansas City last week. Give credit to their defense last week as they allowed 21 points but that was the result of seven field goals for the Chiefs but a lot of that blame can be put on Kansas City and its offense. The Chiefs piled on 461 yards and had nearly a 15-minute advantage in time of possession but could not execute when necessary and part of the fact is that Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in number of plays per drive. Seattle got 3.5 in Green Bay earlier in the season and now it is getting close to the same here and while the Bengals have been solid, they are not on the level of Green Bay quite yet so I think there is definitely value here as well. Here ,we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-6 ATS (79.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (465) Seattle Seahawks

Last week we saw a massive number of game going under the total in college football with 45 of 57 games falling below the number and while the percentage in the NFL was not as big, 10 of 15 games stayed under the total. While we aren't seeing quite the same value shift this week across the board, this is one game that could feasibly turn into a shootout. The Eagles came into the season ready to put up some big offensive displays but we have yet to see that as all four of their games have stayed under the total. Philadelphia averaged 29.6 ppg last season and this year, it is averaging just 19.5 ppg and is ranked 29th in total offense. This unit is bound to turn things around at some point and this could very well be the breakout game. The Saints are allowing 381.5 ypg and 26 ppg, both of which are 24th in the league. They also are coming off an under last week despite going into overtime and while that was their best defensive effort of the season, going back to see them allow 27 points to Carolina and 26 points to Tampa Bay shows this defense is not very good. On the other side, the Eagles have been solid on defense while New Orleans has been average on offense but we should see a fast paced game here which can no doubt help Drew Brees and the offense. The Saints are 6-0 to the over in their last six games in the first half of the season while going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams averaging 70 or fewer rushing ypg. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Eagles last six games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (461) New Orleans Saints/(462) Philadelphia Eagles

While Jacksonville is just 1-3, the Jaguars have looked pretty good. Sans a blowout loss against the Patriots, they have outgained their other three opponents including winning the yardage battle last week against Indianapolis by 105 total yards but suffered a tough loss in overtime. Jacksonville is playing its third straight road game and while that may not seem like a good situation to take, the fact of the matter is that teams playing their third straight road game coming off losses in the first two games are a solid 26-16 ATS. And the travel here is minimal going from Jacksonville to Tampa. Tampa Bay also checks in at 1-3 and it too is coming off a yardage win last week but a loss on the scoreboard here against Carolina. The weather played a big role in both aspects so it is hard to take stock into that one too much but the Buccaneers come in as favorites for the second time this season and they were trounced by Tennessee in the first game they were favored in. going back, Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and all eight of those spread losses were outright losses as well. Statistically speaking, these teams are pretty equal and the big edge for the Jaguars is at quarterback as Blake Bortles has been pretty solid after a tough opener against Carolina. He has five touchdowns and just one interception his last three games while Jameis Winston has only one solid game and three duds. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games prior to its bye week and the Jaguars fall into a great situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons including 17-2 ATS over the last five years and 9-1 ATS over the last three years. 10* (451) Jacksonville Jaguars

A pair of 1-3 AFC North teams square off with the loser likely already out of the division so this makes for the first real big game this season. Cleveland and Baltimore are both 1-3 and while the Ravens are statistically the better team at this point, they are the one that feasibly could be 0-4 at this point as they were fortunate to come away with an overtime win last week in Pittsburgh. At the same token, the three losses have been by six, four and four points so there feasibly could be other wins in there. Nonetheless, with this being a divisional game and not that much separation between the two teams, there is no way this line should be as high as it is. Cleveland has dropped its last two games with the latest being last week at San Diego as it lost on a field goal as time expires. The Browns were outgained by just six yards in that game so it was a difficult loss as they blew three different leads. This is the first division game for Cleveland so they arguably have the edge over Baltimore in that regard as running the table is still a possibility, although unlikely. Teams playing on the road coming off a road loss have been a solid proposition, hitting over 64 percent since 1983 and the Browns also fall into a situation going against the Ravens as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after one or more consecutive losses. The scoring differential between these two teams is just around one point but the spread is not taking that into consideration, rather than what has transpired in the past. 10* (455) Cleveland Browns

We lost with the Falcons last week as the game was over before it started so after that horrendous call, we come right back with Washington. Atlanta is one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this season as it is off to a 4-0 start, both straight up and against the number. Most impressive has been the last two games as the Falcons between the end of the Cowboys game and the start of the Texans game, they rolled off 67 unanswered points. The Houston game was the lone game of the first four that Atlanta actually dominated however as it had to come from behind against Dallas while the Falcons easily could have lost their first two games against the Eagles and Giants. Washington is 2-2 following a win over the Eagles last Sunday as it scored the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining. A 2-2 record has the Redskins tied with the Giants and Cowboys for first place in the NFC East so their start is surprising as well. Maybe even more surprising is the fact Washington has outgained all four of its opponents and overall, is outgaining foes by an average of 95 ypg which is a pretty significant differential. Only the Cardinals at 98.2 ypg has a higher differential so this spread is based on records and expectations heading into the season, namely that of the Redskins supposedly stinking up the joint. I'm not saying the Redskins are the better team but there is no way they should be this big of an underdog yet this is still a very winnable game. This is a horrendous spot for Atlanta as it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a home win by 21 points or more, 3-20 ATS in its last 23 home games coming off a home win and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (457) Washington Redskins

One look at Wyoming's 0-5 record and the first thought that comes to mind is that this team is horrible. Certainly 0-5 is not good but of the five winless teams remaining in the nation, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch. Typically, that is still nothing to be prod of but considering Wyoming has been outgained by just 10.8 ypg through those first five games shows it has been a lot more competitive than what the scores are indicating. This is a great example of how lines are inflated because of records. This number coincides with what the Cowboys were getting at Appalachian St. and Washington St., two teams that are right around the same power number as Wyoming, and the Cowboys covered those two games by over a touchdown each. Air Force is not the same Air Force we are accustomed to as the quarterback play has been extremely weak which was expected coming into the season and now starter Nate Romine is out for the season. Air Force emerged from a pair of road games at undefeated Michigan State and Navy with little to show other than a long list of injuries and questions about its offense. The passing game has been nonexistent early in games, accounting for just 16 combined yards in the first half of the past three games. Winning here may not seem possible with the size of this spread but this is a big rivalry that can even things up in some cases. Even with that, the Cowboys are better than what the record shows as mentioned earlier and going back, they are 4-1 ATS over their last five road games and going back further, they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. Air Force is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after a road loss by 21 or more points and 3-17 ATS in its last 20 home games after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. 10* (345) Wyoming Cowboys

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is a situation where both teams have seen a huge majority of their games go under the number. Colorado is coming off its third straight under and fourth in fifth games as 65 points were scored against Oregon but that was still not enough to push it over. In five games, the posted closing total wax in the 60's while the other was at 56.5 so the Buffaloes are facing their lowest total of the season. Colorado is ranked 38th in total offense so it has the ability to move the ball. Arizona St. meanwhile has seen all five of its games stay below the number which is also part of the reason of the huge overadjustment this week. Both offense and defense have been up and down and overall, the Sun Devils are ranked 44th in total offense and 60th in total defense. All five of the Sun Devils games have had closing totals in the 60's so there is huge value in their side of this total as well. While the teams are a combined 9-1 to the under, that would go to 5-5 had the total be what they are using this week. Colorado is 11-3 to the over in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record and 21-5 to the over in its last 26 games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games while Arizona St. is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two out of its last three games. Over (369) Colorado Buffaloes/(370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

Michigan St. is coming off another lethargic effort as snuck past Purdue last week. The Spartans jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead but the Boilermakers would not go away as they pulled to within three points and got the ball to midfield before turning it over on down and ending the game. It was a scare for sure and with Michigan on deck, Michigan St. can ill afford another effort like that heading into its first really big game of the season. Michigan St. has not completely dominated a game this year even though it is more than capable of doing so and thus, the Spartans are off to a 0-5 ATS start. Because of that, we go a pretty decent number to open and it has come down a significant amount. Rutgers is a mess. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a win to improve to 2-2 but that was against lowly Kansas while the other win came against Norfolk of the FCS. They were blown out by Penn St. and lost at home against Washington St. but it is internally even worse off. The Scarlet Knights surprised many with an 8-5 record in their first season in the Big Ten. But the campaign lacked a signature win, as the Knights were dominated by the best teams in the conference. One of those losses was a 44-3 beatdown against Michigan St. and while Rutgers is using that as motivation for the rematch, the talent gap is simply too big. Head coach Kyle Flood will be serving the final game of his three-game suspension and while not a huge deal, it is still a disadvantage. The Spartans fall into a solid situation as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, after allowing eight or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 112-58 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (401) Michigan St. Spartans

Nevada is coming off a disappointing loss last week against rival UNLV as it outgained the Rebels but failed on fourth down conversions in its final two drives to lose by six points. The Wolf Pack are now 2-3 on the season and that loss was the first in conference play so a win here is imperative as to not fall to 0-2 in the Mountain West Conference. Junior quarterback Tyler Stewart went 20-of-44 for 202 yards passing with one touchdown against UNLV. Stewart set career-high marks in completions (20), passing attempts (44) and rushing yards (61) while his 202 passing yards ranked tied for second in his career. That is a big performance as his production is big to back up the 40th best rushing attack in the country. New Mexico defeated rival New Mexico St. last time out which isn't saying much as the Aggies have lost 14 straight games. The Lobos still only outgained the Aggies by just 30 yards total. They are now 3-2 overall including 2-2 against FBS teams and they have been outgained by a total of 343 yards in those four games. New Mexico is a dismal 9-46 in Mountain West Conference action the last seven years and this is the best five-game start since 2007 so that is really saying something about the state of this program. The Lobos in fact have a very solid running game as well but if you can stop New Mexico on first and second down, you will slow the offense down as the passing game still lags. New Mexico ranks 119th in passing efficiency as quarterback Lamar Jordan hits on just 50.9 percent of his passes for fewer than 85 yards per game. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss while going 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile the Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (406) Nevada Wolf Pack

Neither ULM nor Tulsa are off to great starts and both come in riding two-game losing streaks. Tulsa looks to be the team that has the best chance to break the skid as it remains home looking to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss against Houston. Prior to that, the Golden Hurricane lost to Oklahoma by just 14 points as a 31.5-point underdog and they were in that game for the most part as they were down by just seven points late in the third quarter before the Sooners ran off two straight touchdowns. The Cougars and Sooners are a combined 8-0. Tulsa should not have to worry about any sort of that happening here. The Warhawks are 1-3 with the lone victory coming against Nichols St. of the FCS and all of the losses coming by at least 20 points while getting outgained by 184 yards, 211 yards and 224 yards. Granted two of those losses came against Alabama and Georgia but a bad home loss against Georgia Southern wasn't called for. ULM has one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt Conference but we have yet to see it and in order for this team to turn things around, the defense needs to step up as the offense is on rough shape. The Warhawks lost their starting quarterback and top rusher and while they have gotten decent production from quarterback Garrett Smith, his six interception are a concern and there is no running game to speak of. On the other side, the Warhawks currently rank 121st in the nation with 248.5 rushing ypg allowed and while the passing defense has been solid, it has not needed to be tested. Overall, Tulsa is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, averaging 569.3 ypg and should have no issues in keeping it going here. 10* (366) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

What has happened with Central Florida? The Knights came into the season as contenders in the AAC East but they are off to a 0-5 start including a loss in Tulane last week. UCF has been dominated on the road in all three games, losing by 14, 17 and 24 points but things have been better at home even though both games resulted in losses. The Knights have dropped both home games by a single point each so those could have gone either way. The thing is though this is the second AAC game of the season so there is plenty of time to turn things around. Connecticut lost at BYU last Friday as the offense once again was unable to get much done. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and then snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which has been pretty up and down this season. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season and over they are ranked 122nd in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Granted, the UCF offense is not much better but it has played a much tougher schedule and we always like the desperate team in these situations. Connecticut is 1-10 over its last 11 road games which is not a good record in what essentially a pickem game. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams being outscored by 10 or more ppg and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 game off games consecutive road losses. UCF closed last regular season 9-1 in its last 10 games with the lone loss coming in Connecticut so revenge is in play as well. 10* (382) Central Florida Knights

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is the biggest contrarian situation of all three and we are catching an unheard of number in the college game. Michigan and Northwestern bring in two of the best defenses in the country as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense while the Wildcats are ranked 5th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Those are obviously some incredible rankings but we have to take a look at the opposition. Of the nine FBS teams that they have faced, the total offense rankings are 112th, 64th, 63rd, 31st, 114th, 81st, 87th, 111th and 76th. So the schedules have been very favorable. Because of the stout defenses, both teams have stayed below the number in all five of their games and because of that, we are getting great value on this adjusted total. Rarely do you see a college game with an over/under in the mid-30's but that is the case here. While the defenses could still control the game, it will not take a lot for this one to go over. Michigan has a great situation on its side to go high as we play the over involving teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, Northwestern is 17-6 to the over in its last 23 games against teams who allow 14 or fewer ppg. Over (373) Northwestern Wildcats/(374) Michigan Wolverines

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. Toledo is expected to win the MAC West behind an offense that averaged close to 500 ypg and 36.6 ppg a season ago. While only five starters are back, the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver are three of those. The Rockets are averaging 26.8 ppg which is a significant decline but they have scored 30 or more points two times. Because of the offense not hitting its potential and a defense that has overachieved, Toledo has gone under the total in all four games. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off a low scoring game against Miami Ohio which was its second under in four games. The total against the RedHawks closed at 43 and we are seeing a very light increase here despite playing an offense that is significantly better. As for Toledo, this is the lowest over/under it has seen this season by over 10 points so it is a massive overadjustment. It should be noted that Kent St.'s two best defensive efforts came against teams ranked 105th and 112th in total offense and 121st and 126th in scoring offense. The over is 5-1 in the Golden Flashes last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 20-7 in Toledo's last 27 home games when playing against a team with a losing record and the over is 15-3 in its last 18 home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game. Over (333) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(334) Toledo Rockets

Western Michigan returns home following a loss at Ohio St. in its most recent game two weeks ago. The Broncos are 1-1 at home with a win over Murray St. and a very impressive effort against Michigan St. in the lone setback. They have been outgained in all three games against FBS opposition but this is by far a big step down in class and that is no disrespect to Central Michigan but the Broncos has an extremely tough nonconference slate. Central Michigan is coming off an upset at home last week against Northern Illinois as it won by 10 points despite getting outgained by 41 total yard. The Chippewas can thank the Huskies for coughing up the ball four times which was the difference in the game. Central Michigan is 0-2 on the road with an overtime loss at Syracuse and a 20-point loss at Michigan St. The value here is based on the fact the Chippewas have covered all five of their games thus far so the bounce angle comes into play. The turnover aspect for Central Michigan last week was fortunate but Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after committing one of fewer turnovers last games while going 10-2 ATS in it last 12 games following a win against the number. The defensive effort wasn't there against the Buckeyes but that was not a good matchup and going back, the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. While the road team has won the last three meetings, it is important to note the home team was not favored but the chalk has covered five straight games in this series. The Cannon Trophy and the Michigan MAC trophy are at stake Saturday, but this game could also go a long way in deciding the MAC West Division and Western Michigan has a big advantage with having had an extra week to prepare for this one. 10* (342) Western Michigan Broncos

With the win last week against North Texas, Southern Mississippi matched its win total from all of last season and one more victory will match the win total from the previous three seasons combined. This is no doubt a team on the rise after a miserable run however, the linesmakers have now caught up after being behind for a bit. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS and that is keeping this line down and it has actually gone down from the opening which is giving us huge value under a key number. Marshall is 4-1 to start the season which may surprise some considering it lost record breaking quarterback Rakeem Cato and leading rusher Devon Johnson. But there is an abundance of talent on this squad and the lone loss came against a similar 4-1 team on the road in Ohio. The Thundering Herd are coming off a win over Old Dominion, a team that has failed to cover a game this season so now they go against a team in just the opposite scenario and getting a huge value number because of it. Southern Mississippi defeated Texas St. on the road two games back and allowed 50 points in doing so which is not a good sign as the Bobcats have scored a grand total of 30 points in their other two games against FBS competition. That win was by six points against a team not even on the same level as Marshall. Marshall is 17-1 over its last 18 home games while going 11-6-1 ATS in them and the majority of those have been double-digit spreads. Marshall has dominated this series the last three years with wins by an average of 43 ppg and while Southern Mississippi is an improved team, have they improved enough to make up that much ground? No way. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd

Both Washington and USC are coming off an under in their last games which is providing some value heading into this one. The Huskies have gone under the total in three of four games with the lone game going over by just 2.5 points while USC is 2-2 with totals with one of those games going over by just 1.5 points. The USC defense is not as good as it may look as far as points allowed, which sits at 17.5 ppg. The Trojans are allowing 410 ypg on the season which is 90th in the country and that includes holding Idaho to 311 total yards. In the last game against Arizona St., USC allowed just 14 points but gave up 454 total yards and was the beneficiary of four Sun Devils turnovers. Washington meanwhile is allowing just 15.8 ppg and 321 ypg which is 17th and 29th in the nation but those numbers and rankings are skewed because of a game against Sacramento St. of the FCS where they pitched a shutout and gave up 212 total yards. Take that game out of the equation and the numbers are much more average. Washington allowed 481 yards to California in its last game and while that offense is great, the Trojans offense is even better. The Trojans fall into a solid situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 63-28 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 18-5 to the over in its last 23 road games teams averaging 37 or more ppg while USC is 12-2 to the over in its last 14 home games after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. 10* Over (305) Washington Huskies/(306)USC Trojans

After a 0-2 start, the Colts have rebounded with wins in their last two games to take over first place in the AFC South. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that went to the AFC Championship last year as it has been outgained in all four games but this team is due for a complete domination and Houston looks like the perfect victim. The Texans were destroyed last week in Atlanta as they lost by 27 points despite outgaining the Falcons by 50 total yards. Of course, of their 428 total yards, 219 of those came in garbage time when they were down 42-0. The defense is considered the strength but got gashed last week and with Andrew Luck rested after a week off, the Colts should be able to get their offense finally on track. Houston rushed for just 54 yards on 17 carries (3.2 ypc) and is averaging just 3.7 ypc on the season while the quarterback situation is an absolute mess. The Colts are 18-1 in their last 19 games against AFC South foes including 15 straight wins. Granted, the last two came down to the final seconds including the last one in overtime but the dominance is still the most important factor. The Colts fall into a great situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a poor first half defense that allows 14 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered 11 of its last 12 Thursday night games while Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday night contests. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts

***Andrew Luck will not start but is available. This is still a play as the line move is big and will possibly go up more. He is available to play however and I would not be surprised to see him.***

The Seahawks picked up their first win of the season as they pulled away from Chicago in the second half to snap their early two-game skid. They have won six straight home games and while they possess one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, if not the best, they are definitely overvalued based on last week and what the Lions have done to start the season. Detroit is off to a 0-3 and the season is likely done with a loss here. Getting a win will not be easy but we are more concerned about the number they are getting and it is inflated despite them still being a quality team. Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego and allowed 30 unanswered points to lose by five points. Turnover did them in against Minnesota and last week, Detroit was down by just two points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored the final 10 points to pull away. The problem has been giving up points in bunches and let's face it, Seattle does have the dynamic offense to do that. Seattle has three touchdowns from defense and special teams and while that is always a danger, it is something that cannot be counted on. The Seahawks are at Cincinnati next week which makes this a big game for them as well but laying this number is no guarantee as they are just 6-6-1 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites. Also, Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 3.0 or fewer ypc and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 21 or more points while Detroit is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a home loss by 10 or more points. 10* (277) Detroit Lions

This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees but he will go on Sunday night against the Cowboys. The line opened at -4.5 at BetOnline but came down a full point in less than an hour. We waited for it settle in at -3 across the board and while we are paying for extra juice as of now, I can see it rising more by gametime. The Saints are in desperation mode at this points, sitting at 0-3 and trailing the 3-0 Falcons and Panthers by three games so this is obviously a must win game for New Orleans. The home loss against Tampa Bay was shocking but going back to last season, New Orleans has lost six straight regular season games at home and that goes up to eight games total including two preseason games from this year. That is unheard of for a Sean Payton team which prior to last season, had not lost back-to-back home games since 2009 and still went on to win the Super Bowl. Dallas started off great last week, opening a 28-14 lead before allowing the Falcons to run off 25 straight points. Losing is one thing but losing like that can be lingering and now hitting the road against a desperate Saints team makes it even tougher. This will be the first road start for Brandon Weeden and while he was solid in relief of Tony Romo in Philadelphia two weeks ago, he is tough to trust here. The Saints fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on home with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 132-78 ATS (6239 percent) since 1983. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints

The Packers are off to a 3-0 start and coming off a national televised win on Monday in game that was not as close as the final score indicates while the 49ers have been annihilated the last two weeks. Who do you think the public will be pounding here? Last week, San Francisco was down 14-0 after just seven offensive plays thanks to a pair of interception returns and it was done there and then. Everyone is counting the 49ers out and that quarterback Colin Kaepernick is done but this is exactly the time players and teams step up. Conversely, the Packers looked unstoppable last week but teams coming off big Monday wins are often susceptible the following week. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is being compared to Michael Jordan and while he is one of the best, he is different on the road than at home where he has been unbeatable. The line is no doubt reflecting the recent play from both sides and we can look back to just last week at the 49ers were getting seven points in Arizona and are now getting more than that at home so the linesmakers are making a huge overadjustment. The 49ers have two great situations on their side. First, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers

While I consider the Panthers to be the worst of the seven undefeated teams in the NFL, the Broncos are not far behind. They were fortunate to defeat both Baltimore and Kansas City and needed a late touchdown last Sunday night to pull away from Detroit. Clearly, the defense is keeping this team above water as Peyton Manning had regressed considerably and the running game has been non-existent. While we are only three games in, the Broncos are averaging just 290.7 ypg which is third to last in the NFL. This after finishing fourth in total offense last season and first in 2013. Minnesota looked pretty bad on opening weekend against San Francisco but it has bounced back the last two weeks thanks also to a stout defense. The passing offense has struggled behind Teddy Bridgewater but the return of Adrian Peterson has been as expected as he has rushed for 260 yards on 5.3 ypc. While the Broncos did not let the Lions run game get going, they allowed Jamaal Charles to rush for 125 yards on 21 carries (5.95 ypg) two weeks ago. The Vikings' defense has five sacks over the past two weeks and coach Mike Zimmer has a history of giving Manning fits. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 150 or fewer passing yards last game and it falls into an awesome situation. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Minnesota Vikings

We lost playing against the Falcons last week against the Cowboys as they were able rally from a 28-14 deficit by scoring the final 25 points of the game. They are off to a surprising 3-0 start but have been hardly dominant as they have outgained opponents by just 101 total yards combined and have actually trailed in the fourth quarter of each game. Atlanta has covered all three games as well but it was the underdog in each of those games at close and now all of sudden they are a hefty favorite. This is the most they have been favored by at home since Week Five in 2013 against the Jets. Houston won and covered last week to pick up its first win of the season. The Texas are outgaining opponents by 111 yards on the season so there is certainly not much different than the Falcons. The offense has been inconsistent but the defense keeps them in games and the running game could get a boost with the return of Arian Foster who is a gametime decision this week. The Falcons gave up 131 yards rushing in the first half against the Cowboys so they are very vulnerable which falls right into the gameplan of Houston. Here, we play against home teams (that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (255) Houston Texans

The Chiefs are coming off their second straight loss as they were pounded by Green Bay on Monday night which came after an unfathomable loss the previous Thursday against the Broncos. While throwing out "must win" this early in the season may not seem reasonable, this is a big game for the Chiefs as falling to 1-3 and already having a loss against the Broncos could put them in a very tough position going forward. Playing the second consecutive road game is far from an issue and head coach Andy Reid has thrived in these spots as his teams have gone 26-13 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. The Bengals are one of seven undefeated teams in the league and one of six teams to have covered all three games. That presents us with value as people are riding high on Cincinnati right now and while it is a very good team, this is a bad spot. Not only are the Bengals coming off a big win last week in Baltimore, but they host Seattle next week which is not an ideal situation to be in. Despite the public burying the Bengals, this line has only moved a half-point on a number that is already too high. Kansas City is 25-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games and it falls into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and coming off a road loss. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Kansas City Chiefs

We were on both the Giants and the Bills last week and both came through with big victories. We are fading the Bills this week however because of the situation and because of the value. Buffalo has opened up 2-1 with big victories over the Colts and Dolphins with the lone defeat coming against the Patriots. Those were three emotionally charged games so the letdown effect has to come. The fact of the matter is that while Buffalo's two wins came by 13 and 27 points, they outgained the opposition by only 75 yards combined. Making matters worse, two of the big playmakers on offense, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins will be out this week. The Giants picked up their first win last week against Washington on Thursday which was big for confidence following two blown double-digit fourth quarter leads in their first two games. This team could easily be 3-0 right now despite down in the stats column in each of those and are arguably the best team in the NFC East. Because of the record, New York is getting more points than it would be if it happened to be 3-0 or even 2-1 for that matter. The time off between Thursday and Sunday is big for the Giants as head coach Tom Coughlin has five of the last six games following a Thursday game, covering all six. The Giants fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs that opened the season 0-2 and won their most recent game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1990. Additionally, Buffalo is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. 10* (259) New York Giants

Arizona St. could not capitalize on USC coming off a bad loss against Stanford two weeks ago as it fell behind 35-0 at halftime and could not recover. The Sun Devils were ready to pull within two touchdowns but fumbled the ball and USC returned it 94 yards for a touchdown and then fumbled the kickoff and the Trojans pushed in another touchdown. Arizona St. was outgained by just one yard but allowed 28 points off turnovers. They are now 2-2 and have yet to cover but are getting a big number this week. UCLA rolled over Arizona by 26 points but like Arizona St., the Wildcats were killed by turnovers as they were outgained by just 29 yards and the fact quarterback Anu Solomon had to leave the game with an injury did not help matters. The Bruins are 4-0 and now ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll but have yet to cover at home. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen is a great talent and while he has not lost games, he has been pretty average and he is a mistake or two away sending the Bruins to a couple losses. UCLA scored 21 points off turnovers last week as it was able to build a 42-14 halftime lead and was never threatened after that. I'm not much into road revenge but the sun Devils will be out to avenge a 62-17 loss from last season. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (151) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is the ultimate contrarian play based on numbers against the spread but because of that, North Texas is getting a great number. The Mean Green are off to a 0-3 start and has not looked good in doing so but the potential is there to turn things around and match their four wins from last season. Granted, they have been a horrible road team since the start of last season but the number they are getting does not match the level of competition in this matchup. Southern Mississippi is 2-2 and is just one win away from matching its win total from all of last season. The Golden Eagles have defeated Austin Peay from the FCS and Texas St. which has lost all three FBS games with the defense allowing 59, 56 and 59 points so that was certainly another unimpressive win. On top of that, the Golden Eagles allowed 50 points and Texas St. has scored just 30 points combined in its other two FBS games. Southern Mississippi has not seen a spread very often and have been favored by double-digits only once against another FBS team since 2012 and that resulted in an outright loss against Florida International. Going back to that 2012 season, they are 0-5-1 ATS as a home favorite against teams from the FBS. The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Golden Eagles are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (197) North Texas Mean Green

The Tigers have burned us the last two weeks with losses against LSU and Mississippi St. to drop to 0-2 in the SEC but we are going back to the well with Auburn one more time. The season is close to completely slipping away and this is a massive game to turn things around as they need a dominant effort before heading into their bye week. The Tigers outgained the Bulldogs last week with excellent balance as Sean White was solid in his first start at quarterback but was unable to convert critical third down conversions. That won't happen here. This is a horrible time for San Jose St. to face Auburn as they are catching the Tigers at a bad time. The Spartans have played well at home with wins over New Hampshire and Fresno St. but they have been equally as bad on the road. They have lost to Air Force and Oregon St. while getting outgained by 162 and 185 yards in those games respectively. Auburn has yet to cover a game this season which is keeping this line within reason as well as the fact the tigers have not covered in nine straight games going back to last season. The Spartans have been very poor in this spot as they have gone 10 straight games without covering when getting points. These teams met here just over a year ago with Auburn rolling by 46 points as a 33-point favorite, outgaining San Jose St. 493-319, so the line differential from then until now is huge. 10* (180) Auburn Tigers

Rice got absolutely blasted last week as it lost against Baylor 70-17 while getting outgained by 547 total yards but of course, the Bears are one of the top teams in the country. The Owls are not as bad as that loss looks but because it just happened last week, the prior work is already being ignored. They outgained all three previous opponents including a game at Texas even though a lot of those yards were in garbage time. The point is gamblers have very short term memories and seeing a blowout loss is lining them up on the other side which inflated the line. Western Kentucky had its first three games decided by three points or less but finally was able to blowout an inferior opponent as it defeated Miami Ohio last week by 42 points as a 20-point home favorite. Now the Hilltoppers hit the road for the second time this season and are a surprising large favorite. They were road favorites only once last season and lost outright at UAB. Rice is a perfect 12-0 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams averaging 275 or more passing ypg and falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (146) Rice Owls

The Bobcats won for us last weekend but did lose the game outright against Minnesota. While many will back Ohio again sensing a bounceback, we are going against that here as the Bobcats are overpriced. They have covered all four of their games thus far and that is a big component when making future lines and say the Bobcats were 2-2 against the number, they very well would not be favored here. Akron is 2-2 but it is trending the right way as after blowout losses against Oklahoma and Pittsburgh, the Zips own two blowout wins the last two weeks, including an impressive win at Louisiana last weekend. That moved them to 4-34 over their last 38 road games and that victory could be huge going forward for possible bowl implications should it come down to that. This is a very improved team and despite a 5-7 record last season, it was favored in all MAC home games so being a home underdog is a gift. Ohio is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games after getting outgained by 125 or more total yards last game while the Zips have thrived on momentum, going 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is a big game for Akron with four of the next five games taking place on the road so this one needs to be taken. 10* (122) Akron Zips

Maryland got crushed last Saturday at West Virginia as the Terrapins went down by 39 points while getting outgained by 275 total yards. A new season starts this weekend however as conference play gets underway and this has all of a sudden turned into a big game for them and head coach Randy Edsall who could be leaning toward the hot seat after two consecutive 7-6 seasons that ended in blowout losses in mediocre bowls. The Terrapins are at Ohio St. next week so this is a big one for sure. Michigan lost its opener at Utah but has string together three straight wins but all of those came at home. The Wolverines have allowed just 14 points in the three victories but because of the lopsided victories, they are now favored on the road by double-digits for the first time since 2013, a game they won by just three points. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job as head coach but let's not forget these are not his players so getting into the heart of the Big Ten schedule could cause some issues. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a home win while Maryland is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 28 or more points. Additionally, Edsall is 11-2 ATS in his 13 games after scoring nine points or less. 10* (206) Maryland Terrapins

Missouri is coming off a surprising loss last week at Kentucky after starting the season 3-0 but unimpressively. The Tigers defeated SE Missouri St. of the FCS so that was not a big deal but a seven-point win over Arkansas St. and a three-point win over Connecticut were very concerning leading up to last Saturday. The loss to the Wildcats has the fan base concerned following back-to-back awesome seasons but despite the early struggles, this team is much better that what they have shown. South Carolina was able to shake off a slow start against UCF last week and like Missouri, it has been a slow start for the Gamecocks. They also lost to Kentucky while getting blown out by Georgia and barely sneaking by North Carolina. The difference here though is we knew there would be issues coming into the season and we are seeing those. Lorenzo Nunez took over as starting quarterback and while he played pretty solid, making his first road start will be a challenge to try and repeat that success. Missouri has been a single digit home favorite only twice over the last two plus years and the Tigers were able to cover both of those. Missouri is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games while going 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games off a road loss. *Please note that quarterback Maty Mauk is suspended for this game but it is still a play as he has been below average anyway.* 10* (188) Missouri Tigers

We are basing this on contrarian theory as we have seen some low scoring games between these two teams. Connecticut has seen all four of its games go under the total as the offense has really struggled to move the ball and to score as the Huskies are ranked 120th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Something says they get it going this week however as BYU has allowed at least 24 points in each game. The Cougars have gone under in each of their last two games as the offense is coming off a pair of bad efforts. They will be facing another tough defense but returning home will make a big difference as they tallied 35 points in their lone home game this season against Boise St. and the Broncos have a better defense than Connecticut. BYU is ranked 107th in total offense as the running game has held it back but it is tied for first in the nation in redzone offense. These teams played last season and while that game stayed below the total, it closed over a touchdown higher than what the number is this year. The Cougars have not seen a total this low since 2012 which represents a big overreaction to what has transpired early in the season. 10* Over (109) Connecticut Huskies/(110) BYU Cougars

Obviously, the Steelers offense took a big hit when Ben Roethlisberger went down Sunday with a sprained MCL. The latest info is that he will be out at least four weeks and that could be just enough time for Pittsburgh to fall out of the playoff race as it does not have a break in the schedule until Week Nine against Oakland. No player is worth six points in this league but that is the line switch from last week to this week so while that clearly gives the Steelers value, there are too many other variables going against them. First and foremost, they are playing on a short week so getting a new gameplan together with very little practice time is difficult to accomplish and nearly impossible. Baltimore is a very desperate team right now as it has started the season 0-3 for the first timer ever and has yet to cover a game on top of it. The Ravens are one of the better 0-3 teams we have seen in quite some time as they have lost the three games by a combined 14 points. History is not on their side as only three teams that started 0-3 have gone on to make the playoffs and nine since the 1998 Bills. This is the only team of the four 0-3 teams that has a legitimate shot at making the postseason as the remaining schedule is not that bad. Of course, this is a must win game as only one 0-4 team has made the playoffs (1992 Chargers). While the Steelers offense will struggle, the defense has to pick up the load and that will not happen. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a loss as a home favorite. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens

We played on Cincinnati last week as it lost but was able to cover in its shootout with Memphis. That was the fourth straight game to go over the total for the Bearcats and because of that, we are seeing a ridiculously high number this week. Miami meanwhile has gone over the total in two of three games including the last two with the lone game staying under being a game against FCS Bethune Cookman. This is the highest total the Hurricanes have seen this season so we are definitely getting value going the other way. Both offenses have been leading the way but the defenses should be able to have success here. Cincinnati had to tangle with one of the best offenses in the nation last week and it takes a step down here. Miami meanwhile is ranked 27th in total defense while sitting 13th in passing efficiency defense. The Bearcats will be without Gunner Kiel at quarterback after suffering a scary head injury last week and while backup Hayden Moore was sensational, there will be a lot more resistance here. Miami 6-0 to the under in its last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games over the last three seasons while Cincinnati is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* Under (103) Miami Hurricanes/(104) Cincinnati Bearcats

The Packers are off to a non-surprising 2-0 start as they took out Chicago Week One and then defeated the Seahawks last week in primetime. While many could consider this a letdown, the fact they have five straight non-divisional games right after this puts them in a position where they can run the table and start off 8-0 before their next NFC North game which is against the Lions. The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker last week against the Broncos as they allowed two touchdowns in a span of nine seconds in the final minute of the game to even their record out at 1-1. The first game was a suspect victory however as they defeated the Texans but were actually outgained in doing so. It is pretty common knowledge at this point about how good Aaron Rodgers has been at home but the fact that he has thrown 43 touchdowns with no interceptions with a 124 passer rating in his last 18 games at home is pretty amazing. Going back, the Packers have won 31 of their last 32 regular-season home games in which Rodgers was the primary quarterback. This does not count the loss to the Bears two years ago where he left with an injury. He may not have the services of Eddie Lacy tonight but he was a non-factor last week against Seattle and his backup James Starks provides a more than capable backup. While there are some key factors that favor the Packers, they are in a very simple yet effective situation where we play on teams on Monday night that have yet to lose and going up against a non-divisional opponent. This situation is 20-4 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (490) Green Bay Packers

After a huge win over the Colts in their season opener, the Bill laid an egg last week against the Patriots as Tom Brady torched them for 466 yards passing and three touchdowns while Tyrod Taylor tossed three picks and was sacked eight times. Now they head out for their first road game and it is a very important early season divisional game. The Dolphins are 1-1 and are fortunate not to be 0-2 as they were outgained in both games. Many will expect a bounceback here but I am not one of them as they looked horrible last week against a poor Jaguars team. The Dolphins defense gave up six plays of 21-plus yards to Jacksonville last week. Like the Jets, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play them in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. This is the first home game for the Dolphins and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Opposing teams playing in Florida in September is usually a disadvantage but not here as this game is not an early game but an a late afternoon game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. The Bills have covered four straight games following a loss and four straight games in a revenge situation. 10* (485) Buffalo Bills

The Eagles are one of a handful of disappointing teams that have started 0-2 with Indianapolis, Seattle and Baltimore being the others. The argument every year is which, if any, of these 0-2 teams will make the playoffs as since 1990, just over 11 percent of the teams that start 0-2 have made the postseason. The Eagles are still in good shape to go so with the NFC East already a mess with the Giants entering this week winless and the Cowboys missing their quarterback for at least two months. Talk radio has been all over the Eagles anemic offense and while that has been the case, it has taken time for these new players to gel together. Sam Bradford has looked skittish, Demarco Murray has gained 11 rushing yards and the offensive line has looked helpless at times. This team will turn things around and this is the ideal spot for it to happen. The Jets are coming off a huge road upset at Indianapolis on Monday and while heading home, they are in a tough letdown spot. Making it tougher, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play the Dolphins in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. Speaking of laying points, the Jets are favored after being a 3.5-point underdog prior to the games last week so we are seeing a huge overreaction line swing. Adding to the situation, the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (467) Philadelphia Eagles

We lost with the Colts Monday night as they were surprisingly dominated by the Jets on their home turf. The public reaction is that they are done but that could be the furthest from the truth. Even though Indianapolis is 0-2, it is still overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South and that will happen. The main reason is that the Colts have dominated their division over the last few years as they have won 13 straight games within the division and with three straight on deck, they will be 3-2 before facing the Patriots. And they don't just win, they dominate as are a perfect 12-0-1 ATS in those games. Tennessee easily took c\are of Tampa Bay in its first game this season but as good as it looked then, it looked similarly as bad last week against the Browns even though it won the yardage battle. This is the first home game for the Titans and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Additionally, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. It needs to be noted that the Colts started 0-2 with similar Sunday and Monday losses and then went on the road to hammer Jacksonville which started a five game winning streak. Also, Andrew Luck has never dropped three straight games. 10* (477) Indianapolis Colts

Houston is off to a 0-2 start and tied with the Colts for last place in the AFC South. The Texans were a sleeper pick to contend with Indianapolis and that could still very well happen as the season just started. The biggest issue is that the ground game has been non-existent as they are averaging just 3.6 ypc but leading rusher Chris Polk expressed confidence that they will turn things around. The Buccaneers allowed four touchdowns to Marcus Mariota in his first ever start so we should see the running game get going as Ryan Mallett should perform much better than last week. Tampa Bay followed up that loss with a big upset at New Orleans last week but it was revealed afterward that Drew Brees was hurt throughout the game and the Saints defense is atrocious. We all know wins have been a rarity for the Buccaneers and I do not expect a similar effort here against a much tougher Texas defense even though the numbers have not shown it yet. Going back, the Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more points and falls into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 106-56 ATS (65.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (466) Houston Texans

The Cowboys were favorites by many to win the NFC East but the chances took a huge hit last week after quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone and is out at least eight weeks. The odds have gone up slightly and no one seems to be giving them a chance with Brandon Weeden taking over at quarterback because of his horrible past where he has lost his last seven starts. Here's the deal. He knows the system and will have had a full week of practicing with the first unit. Additionally, he got snaps with the first unit in the past as Romo always takes Wednesday off. After coming in last week, Weeden completed all seven of his pass attempts for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have rewarded new head coach Dan Quinn with a 2-0 record but they could just as well be 0-2 at this point as they have been very fortunate at the end of games with the Eagles and Giants both stepping on their foots with mistakes. Atlanta was outgained by the Eagles and outgained the Giants by just 14 yards so you can see that the record is skewed. Going back, the Falcons are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and they fall into a negative situation. We play against favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yppl last season, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Dallas head coach Jason Garrett is 22-9 ATS as an underdog. 10* (480) Dallas Cowboys

We lost with Auburn last week in a horrible call as they were annihilated at LSU by 24 points while getting outgained by 225 total yards. The Tigers return home winless against the spread and we are now getting a very favorable number in a game that they need to win big to turn the season around before it completely implodes. Mississippi St. is coming off an impressive win but it was against an unimpressive Northwestern St. team. Looking two games back, the Bulldogs made things interesting against LSU as they came back late before just falling short. They opened the season on the road against Southern Mississippi and while they won by 18 points, they outgained the Golden Eagles by just 29 yards. They failed to cover and going back, have covered just once in their last five road games. Auburn meanwhile is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams who give up 17 or fewer ppg, 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. The Tigers are making a switch at quarterback as Jeremy Johnson has been benched and they are going with redshirt freshman Sean White which can only help matters at this point. 10* (374) Auburn Tigers

Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (343) Vanderbilt Commodores

California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less. 10* (404) Washington Huskies

Illinois has not had a winning season since 2011 but that should change in 2015. The Illini have started out 2-0 the last three year before losing game three only to bounce back and win game four the last two seasons and will see a repeat of that here. They were very impressive with wins over Kent St. and Western Illinois, albeit those teams are not good, but those victories came by a combined 96-3. Illinois did lose by 34 points last week at North Carolina but it was outgained by just 72 total yards as six drives inside North Carolina territory gained only 14 points. Middle Tennessee comes in 2-1 with two blowout wins over weak opposition as well. The lone loss came on the road at Alabama and it was able to cover because of a late garbage touchdown. The Blue Raiders were outgained by 257 yards and while we aren't comparing Illinois to Alabama, playing a team from a power conference will be another challenge and we are laying a short price going against them. They are 2-21 in their last 23 games against power teams (and BYU) since 2016. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a home win against a conference rival while Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. 10* (348) Illinois Fighting Illini

Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators

We won with NC State last week against Old Dominion and we will be playing Appalachian St. for many of the same reasons. The Mountaineers won their final six games last season and are preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference this season. After non being eligible last year in their first year. They are loaded with 10 returning starters on both sides of the ball and while they were blown out against Clemson in their last game, four turnovers did them in as they were outgained by just 94 yards. That was two weeks ago as well so they have had a long time to stew about that defeat. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs won their first two games as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 0-6 ATS in its last six games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (389) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

Penn St. came into the season with high expectations but a loss against Temple was not the way to get started. The Nittany Lions bounced back with wins over Buffalo and Rutgers but the offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 21.7 ppg through three games. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg came in with even higher expectations as a Heisman hopeful and he has been struggling. He has thrown for 372 yards on just 49.3 percent completions while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times and overall Penn St. is ranked 115th out of 128 teams in total offense. The issue comes down to the offensive line which remains a mess. San Diego St. is not having a good year as it has also been struggling on offense and underachieving as well. The Aztecs lost a tough one at home last week against South Alabama as they allowed a 46-yard field goal at the end of regulation and ended up losing in overtime. They hit the road again and while playing on the east coast is not a good situation for west coast teams, the fact that this game is at 3:30 instead of noon is a big advantage. Additionally, the line is overinflated for a team to try and cover by nearly as many points as it is averaging. As for the angles that back the 100% Perfect Power Play, Penn St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win by 17 points or more while going 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. 10* (327) San Diego St. Aztecs

The Bobcats won for us two weeks ago against Marshall and they are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the number after another win last week. They are once again a very solid team as they have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and while conference play begins next week, they will be out for a quality win this week and we are getting an overabundance of points on top of it. Minnesota is a good team as it played TCU very tough in its opener but struggled to win against Colorado St. and really struggled last week against Kent St. at home as it defeated the Golden Flashes 10-7. The Gophers offense has been very inconsistent and this will not be an easy game to get it rolling. Ohio has eight starters back on a defense that improved from 2013 and should be much better this season which we are in fact witnessing. Minnesota has really struggled against non-conference teams the last couple years as it is 2-7 in its last nine non-conference games while being unable to come close to dominating the stats. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have covered five straight non-conference games. 10* (359) Ohio Bobcats

Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number. 10* (365) Massachusetts Minutemen

We are catching a lower than expected number here with Navy and I think it should be able to name the score. The Midshipmen are 2-0 and while a win over Colgate was far from impressive, a 24-point win over a very solid East Carolina team last was impressive. That was their first ever win as a member of the AAC after being an independent for 134 years so it was certainly a special victory. Don't expect a letdown here though as now they will be out for their first ever road conference win and quite honestly, the makeup of this team typically does not allow a letdown. They lead the nation in rushing with 393 ypg and while Connecticut has been decent against the run, they have yet to come close to facing a rushing offense like this. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and hen snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game last week against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which struggled in their first two games against weaker opposition than Connecticut. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 16 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season so they will not be able to keep pace with Navy. The Midshipmen are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after a two-game homestand while Connecticut is 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (323) Navy Midshipmen

We played against Stanford last week and we got burned as the Cardinal came out and defeated USC outright as a 10-point underdog but now the line shifts more than 25 points which is a massive move. While that was a great win, it spells letdown going forward and playing on the road in that spot makes it even tougher. Additionally, they have a game against Arizona on deck which makes it even tougher. It is hard to forget their only road game which came at Northwestern and how bad they were dominated. Playing on national TV on a Thursday night is not ideal coming off the victory over the Trojans. Oregon St. is 2-1 and while the wins were unimpressive over mediocre opposition, those games were important for this very experienced team. This is especially true for freshman quarterback Seth Collins who got his ears wet and looked pretty solid in doing so. A big factor here is that Gary Anderson is the coach that took over for Mike Riley and he is very solid and has been in many a big game so he knows how to get his team ready. While we expect Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to play, he is listed as questionable and may not be close to 100 percent which would be a big blow after him playing so well last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games, returning eight or more offensive starters going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers

The Giants are coming off another tough loss, the second straight game they have blown a late lead and with it came some history they do not want to be associated with. The Giants are the first team to blow double digit fourth quarter leads in consecutive games to start a season. That distinction should have them fired up for this game as they look to avoid a 0-3 start. The good news is that the NFC East is a mess right now with the Eagles looking awful and the Cowboys without Tony Romo for at least eight weeks. Washington blew a lead in their season opener against the Dolphins but came back to defeat the Rams last week. That was more of a St. Louis loss as it was coming a huge home win in overtime against the Seahawks at home. This is the first road game for Washington and going back to 2013, it is 1-13 over its last 14 road games and there is not much to think that is going to change here. The running game needs to get moving for the Giants as they have put up 97 and 99 yards on the ground and going back, they are 20-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) New York Giants

This will be a very unpopular pick this week based on the results we have seen but that is what gets us the value. Cincinnati is off to a 2-1 start but has not looked good in doing so as the loss came to Temple, which albeit is having a solid season, and one win came against Miami Ohio by just four points. The Bearcats are 0-3 against the number as they were unable to cover against Alabama A&M as a 46-point favorite so that can be tossed out. The thing is that they have outgained all three opponents and despite losing to Temple, they outgained the Owls by 261 yards. Five turnovers were the difference there. Memphis is 3-0 as it survived a scare last week against Bowling Green winning 44-41 thanks to scoring the final 10 points of the game. Blowouts over Missouri St. and Kansas were far from impressive. Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel suffered a concussion last week in the third quarter and was listed as questionable yesterday, then went to doubtful and has since gone back to questionable. The line has moved four points because of this and we made the play thinking he would not play and if he does, it only benefits us that much more. Memphis is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points and the Bearcats will be out for payback after losing by 27 points at home last season. 10* (303) Cincinnati Bearcats

Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. Thanks to the Colts loss and the Jets win last week, this spread dropped from -9.5 when it came out prior to the first games to -7 now. It could rise more by gametime so the earlier to bet it the better as it likely only has one way to go. The Colts offense was stymied by Buffalo as the Bill shut down Frank Gore and had a merciless pass rush but don't expect the same from the Jets. The pass rush is lacking and the secondary is banged up so Andrew Luck should have a big rebound game. And he has been the best in the game when it comes to bouncing back as the Colts are 13-1 ATS under his direction coming off a loss which includes them going a perfect 11-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. The Jets looked good against Cleveland last week but they were fortunate that the Brown lost their starting quarterback and even though they won by 21 points, they outgained the Browns by just 12 total yards. The Colts also have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (290) Indianapolis Colts

This is a typical example of overreaction to what transpired Week One as the Eagles lost their opener as a big consensus while Dallas took care of the Giants on a late touchdown drive. We played against the Eagles Monday night and got the win after a big Eagles rally came up short. They looked great in the second half as it seemed to take a little bit for the new players to get into a groove and I expect that to carry over into Sunday. Heading home only helps and being 0-1 will have them highly motivated to get into the win column. The Cowboys definitely caught a break with their victory as poor clock management by New York aided their cause. I certainly do not expect a letdown since it is another divisional game but the public consensus is backing Dallas in this one with a lot of that due to what it did last year as it rolled through the road schedule with a perfect 8-0 record. That included an 11-point win in Philadelphia and that helped the Eagles in missing the playoffs as a 7-2 start turned into a 3-4 finish. The Eagles fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Eagles have covered all six games under head coach Chip Kelly when coming off a road loss, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. 10* (286) Philadelphia Eagles

Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. The Giants came through for us Sunday night as they were able to stay within the number and while they blew the outright win, that actually helps us this week. Last season, they lost their opener at Detroit and then came home only to get blown out by Arizona but the situation is much different as they were right in the midst of a scheme chance and Eli Manning looked very uncomfortable. While he didn't have a great game against Dallas, it was good enough for them to win which they realistically should have. The Falcons opened up strong against Philadelphia and were able to hang on against the Eagles and secure the first victory for head coach Dan Quinn. Now the Falcons hit the road and while the mindset of this team is a lot different than last year, I still expect them to struggle outside the dome. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side there we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. That also carries over to Atlanta as the Falcons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) New York Giants

San Francisco pulled off the upset on Monday night over Minnesota although it wasn't a huge upset as the 49ers were getting just 2.5 points at close. Still, not many expected them to win after a number of big offseason losses on both sides of the ball. Now the find themselves in a much tougher spot as they head to the east coast for an early game with another road game on deck against division rival Arizona. The Steelers lost their opener at New England and they could not have been in a more difficult spot playing in the national spotlight in Tom Brady's first game since his suspension was revoked. They fell behind 21-3 and to their credit came fighting back and overall, they ended up outgaining New England by 103 total yards albeit a lot of that came in garbage time. We can expect to see a huge effort in their first home game and the most pleasant surprise from Thursday was the play of running back DeAngelo Williams who rushed for 127 yards on 6.0 ypc and he will be in the spotlight one more game with Le'Veon Bell suspended for one more game. The 49ers were not tested too much against Minnesota but that will not be the case here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown ready for another big game. Pittsburgh has been off since Thursday while san Francisco is playing on a short week and heading east, never a good spot. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (266) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills won a big game for us last Sunday as they defeated the Colts at home and the situation does not get any easier here. Many called for a 0-2 start from Buffalo and in some cases 0-3 as it heads to Miami next week but I foresee the Bills being 2-0 before facing the Dolphins. A letdown is inevitable at times when coming off a big win like that last week but this game is even bigger so we won't see that here. This team is confident and they now know they have what it takes to chase down New England in the AFC East. The Patriots won on Thursday and while they have the luxury of extra rest and prep time, it is almost negated here since they are traveling and the Bills remaining at home. Tom Brady could not have played better and because of the way he approached that game and the outcome that occurred, the letdown factor actually goes to their side now. Tyrod Taylor shook off the nerves and played a great game with 195 yards passing and 41 yards rushing and he should have another big game here. New England allowed 464 total yards last week and while Buffalo doesn't have the same dynamic offense, success can be attained. As good as the victory was against Indianapolis last week, a loss here basically gives it right back and the Bills could be 1-2 after next week if not careful. Another big factor is head coach Rex Ryan as he has been one of the better coaches when gameplanning against the Patriots and under Brady, they have failed to cover their seven games after facing Pittsburgh. 10* (270) Buffalo Bills

While the Bears lost to Green bay last week, they played a lot better than many expected as they were right in it midway through the fourth quarter and actually outgained the Packers by 80 total yards. Chicago remains home for another tough contest before heading to Seattle and while the season is still early, this is already a very big game. The Bears have lost four straight home games going back to last season which is part of the reason they are catching points here. Arizona made the playoffs last season as a much improved team and the Cardinals opened their season with a big home win over New Orleans. They outgained the Saints by just 19 total yards as they held them to four field goals and that certainly says a lot about how tough the defense is. Of course, it is much different on the road. Offensively, Carson Palmer looked very comfortable coming back from his knee injury but the offense will be without Andre Ellington who was solid before he had to leave with a knee injury. The Bears did not record a sack last week but Palmer is not nearly as mobile so they should be able to amp up the pressure after forcing Rodgers out of the pocket numerous time. Head coach John Fox bring a new attitude and in his coaching career, he has covered 67 percent of his games following a home loss which tells a lot. Arizona has a pair of divisional games on deck so a lookahead could be inevitable. 10* (272) Chicago Bears

Toledo provided one of the biggest upsets in Week Two as it went to Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 16-12 as a 22.5-point underdog. Everyone will remember that score but they do not know the full story as Toledo was outgained by 197 total yards while Arkansas doubled the Rockets in first downs 30-15. The problem was that the Razorbacks constantly stepped on their own feet as they made it inside the Toledo redzone in each of their last four drives but came away with just three points. The Rockets dodged a bullet and now they are paying the price for the outright win as his line is inflated because of it. The Rockets actually had a game in Week One as it hosted Stony Brook but it was postponed due to bad weather after one half of play. They led by only nine points at the break so that was a pretty unimpressive start. Iowa St. lost at home against rival Iowa as the Hawkeyes were playing with revenge from last year's loss. Coming off a big rivalry game can provide a letdown but usually only if our team won so I am not worried at all about any sort of letdown. Toledo is playing with revenge here following a seven-point loss last season but being favored by this much over a power conference team is just too much. The Cyclones have covered four straight against the MAC while the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (167) Iowa St. Cyclones