Sports Picks & Predictions

We gave out a small play against the Chiefs this past Sunday and we are going all in fading Kansas City once again this week. They fell to Tennessee on a last second field goal and are now a game behind the Raiders in the AFC West while sitting in the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoffs, only one game ahead of Miami. Kansas City is easily the worse winning team in the league as we mentioned in the analysis from last week that they are getting outgained on average and by a significant amount. After getting outgained by Tennessee this past Sunday, the Chiefs are getting outgained by an average of 43.7 ypg. That is fourth worst in the league which is ahead of only the Rams, Browns and 49ers which are a combined 5-37. One of those games where they were outgained was their fortunate win in Denver and they were outgained there by 191 total yards but had a kickoff return for a touchdown while benefitting from 15 Denver turnovers. This is the last chance for Denver as it has to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. Following its second straight loss at home against the Patriots, there was a locker room fight between the offense and defense and while it is being played down, that is the type of fire you want to hear about. The Broncos are better than their 8-6 record shows as they are No. 11 in yardage differential and they actually have the same point differential as the division leading Raiders. While I do not think Kansas City is any better than Denver, this line is telling us the Chiefs are in fact the better team on a neutral field so getting a line this spread higher than the key number of three is huge in a game that has much on the line. Nine of the last 12 meetings have been decided by just one possession but in reality, we are more likely to see a Denver blowout rather than a Kansas City blowout. 10* (129) Denver Broncos

This line came out very late due to the questionable status of Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill but it has been confirmed that he will be playing. His presence is definitely important and the passing offense should flourish here with Hawaii being unable to show much resistance. The Warriors allowed over 455 ypg during the regular season and they were mostly gashed by the running game, something the Blue Raiders also excel at on offense as they averaged close to 200 ypg on 4.4 ypc. The issue with Middle Tennessee this season was with its defense but there will not be much to worry about coming from Hawaii. The Warriors scored 21 points or less five times this season and in the eight times they surpassed that number, only one came against another bowl team and that took double overtime to do so. That victory over Air Force was the only victory against a fellow bowler and at 6-7, it can be argued the Warriors should not even be here. This is a home game for Hawaii the senior laden Blue Raiders have all intentions of closing their careers with a victory. 10* (227) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are still alive for playoff spots but it is the Buccaneers that have the much better odds at this point. If Tampa Bay wins, it will move to 9-6 but still will need Green Bay, Detroit and Washington to lose and we do not see that happening this week. Tampa had its five-game winning streak snapped last week in Dallas as it blew a fourth quarter lead but still got the cover which was its sixth straight spread win. It is more straight forward for the Saints as they have to win out and hope to get a lot of help along the way. The good news is that they know if they lose either of their last two games, they have no shot at the postseason so there is no reason to even worry about playoff scenarios. They are coming off a huge win in Arizona last Sunday to stay alive and they will be out to avenge a loss in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. So should Green Bay or Washington win earlier in the day which will know the Saints out, there is still plenty to play for and it was noted that there will be no scoreboard watching prior to their own game. 10* (108) New Orleans Saints

This is a must win game for the Redskins who laid an egg this past Monday night against Carolina which put a big hit into their playoff hopes. They have dropped three of their last four games after a 6-3-1 start but all is not lost. Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win here and next week against Giants while having Tampa Bay lose once or Atlanta lose twice and Green Bay lose once or Detroit lose twice. They could actually still sneak in with a loss here but the chances are extremely slim. There has been no quit with Chicago as it has played extremely hard over the last five weeks but this is not a good spot. The Bears are coming off a pair of brutal divisional losses against the Lions and Packers by three points each and that sets them up for a big letdown here especially with another division rival on deck next week. Chicago has covered five straight games so we are catching value here because of that as well as the Redskins mini slump. Washington has covered eight of their last 10 road games and will keep that going on Saturday. 10* (103) Washington Redskins

The Bills put forth a solid effort last week against the lowly Browns following two straight losses and saving the job of Rex Ryan for at least one more week. Buffalo is still alive in the AFC playoff picture but at 7-7, the chances of making the postseason for the first time in over two decades is slim. Still, the Bills know they need to win and they will no doubt go all out against their division rivals. The Dolphins rolled over the Jets last Saturday which was their second straight win following an ugly loss in Baltimore prior to that. Miami is 8-1 over its last nine games which is one of the best runs in the NFL but it is skewed considerably. The Dolphins have been outgained in five of their last seven games and are still getting outgained on average this season by 41.9 ypg. That is ahead of only Cleveland, San Francisco and Los Angeles which is a pretty bad club to be involved with. Miami is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 December games which is pretty logical while the Bills re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Buffalo Bills

Troy is bowling for the first time since 2010 when it defeated this same Ohio team in the New Orleans Bowl. That was also the last time the Trojans had a winning season but they are guaranteed of that this season as they are now going for double-digit wins for the first time since 1999. They have had only one read bad game this season, a 35-3 loss against Arkansas St. as their other two losses were by a combined 10 points and one of those came at Clemson. For a program that went into a tailspin after dominating the Sun Belt Conference for years, this has been a statement season and this is a statement game heading into the offseason. Ohio is 8-5 and is coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship against Western Michigan. The Bobcats were able to keep things close in their losses but this is a very bad matchup for them. Ohio runs the ball well but the Trojans are solid in that defensive category as they are allowing just 3.4 ypc. The Bobcats are a team that cannot get into a shootout and expect to keep up while playing catch up is something they have not been able to do all season. Troy is led by Brandon Silvers at quarterback who has thrown for 2,951 yards and 22 touchdowns with just nine picks. Ohio gives up over 257 ypg and 7.5 ypa while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7 percent of their passes. Look for Troy to take this one comfortably. 10* (226) Troy Trojans

The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday and while the Eagles have been eliminated from playoff contention, they will go all out and not have New York clinch on their watch. Philadelphia has dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight after a 4-2 start but some of those losses have been very close as six of its overall losses have been by just one possession. Following a win in Chicago in its first road game, Philadelphia has dropped seven straight on the highway but it is a very respectable 4-2 at home and in one of those losses, it outgained the Redskins. The Giants are on a complete opposite run as they have won two straight and eight of their last nine games but similar to the Eagles, the games have been extremely close. Six of the last eight wins have been by a possession and New York has not been good on the road. It won its season opener in Dallas but the other two wins have come against 0-14 Cleveland and 4-10 Los Angeles. Even worse, the Giants have been outgained in all six of their road games and yes that includes the Browns and Rams. New York won the first meeting at home against Philadelphia by five points but was outgained by 141 yards in the process and in 14 games overall, the Giants have been outgained q14 times and on average they are getting outgained by 27 ypg. Because of records, the Giants were forced to be the favorite here but can definitely be considered a false favorite in this spot. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles

Only one team, Penn St., has been hotter at the betting window that Idaho and Colorado St. as each of these teams has covered seven straight games. One streak will be broken and we fell it will be that of the heavy favorite as the Rams have gone from less than a two-touchdown favorite to more than a two-touchdown favorite. Colorado St. has been solid as a favorite this season as it is a perfect 4-0 ATS when laying a touchdown or more but only two of those were against other bowl teams and in both instances, the Rams were not laying anything close to this number. Idaho was one of the biggest surprises in all of college football as it has eight wins which is one fewer than it previous five seasons combined and it will be making its first bowl appearance since 2009. Which happened to come right here when this bowl was called the Humanitarian Bowl. The Vandals have won four straight games, two against fellow bowlers, and have really turned things around as after getting outgained in their first five games against FBS opponents, they have won the yardage battle by an average of 78.3 ypg. While most bowl teams would prefer going somewhere with nicer weather, Idaho is basically playing a home game while Colorado St. got the shaft. This line is severally overpriced and we will take advantage of it. 10* (220) Idaho Vandals

The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The Redskins opened as a -4.5-point favorite and the line has steadily risen to a touchdown in most places and that is a big jump for two teams that are more even than the records may show. Washington is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2 and after a four-game winning streak earlier in the season, the Redskins are just 3-3-1 over their last seven games. They have played a tough schedule and have been favored by more than 3.5 points only once this season and that was against Cleveland. Of their seven wins, only two have come by more than seven points. Obviously, it has been a disappointing season for the Panthers who will be going from playing in the Super Bowl to missing the playoffs. Only nine times has the Super Bowl runner-up finished below .500, something the Panthers can avoid only by winning their final three games. Carolina has only put up two bad games this season and those were against 9-4-1 Seattle and 9-5 Atlanta as it has outgained six of its other 11 opponents. Five of eight losses have come by three points or less while in the other defeat against Minnesota, the Panthers outgained the Vikings by 95 total yards. The pressure is squarely on Washington here and that is often a bad ingredient in games of such magnitude. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (331) Carolina Panthers

Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. The NFL flex schedule moved this game to the primetime slot that before the season would never have come close to playing on Sunday night. The Cowboys are now 11-2 on the season following their second loss to the Giants by a combined four points but are overvalued here once again. Dallas has outgained only one opponent in its last five games and while it is 4-1 in those games, there could have been more losses but was fortunate. While the Cowboys are the surprise of the league, Tampa Bay is not far behind. The Buccaneers are 8-5 and tied with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South. They have won five straight games as the defense has risen to the occasion by allowing just 12.8 ppg during the winning streak. This is certainly a big test but Tampa Bay passed the test already with wins over Atlanta, Kansas City and Seattle so it will not be intimidated here. The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the road and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 95-47 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots picked up a solid win last Monday night to make it four straight wins and are now just one win away from clinching another AFC East title. They can also clinch with a Miami loss on Saturday so this game means a lot more for the Broncos. New England is the only remaining undefeated team on the road and the public is riding that as the Patriots are again a huge consensus this week as a road chalk. Denver lost in Tennessee last week despite outgaining the Titans by 95 yards and the Broncos have actually outgained their opponents in three of their last four losses so they have been better than their 8-5 record shows. A great angle is in play here with the better defense at home and getting points on top of it. New England is clearly playing at a high level but it has struggled here with three straight losses in Denver, the last two coming when it was favored. The Patriots are part of a negative situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 150 and 185 passing ypg, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Year. This game got bumped from the Sunday night time slot and moved to 1:00 ET which helps Cincinnati because of its struggles in the limelight. After going winless in four straight games, the Bengals have won two straight and while making the playoffs will take a minor miracle, they are still in the hunt. The good news is that they face the Steelers and Ravens at home so hope is still there. Pittsburgh roughed up the Bills last week, namely Le'Veon Bell who torched Buffalo for 236 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He will find the going a little tougher this week but because of four straight victories, the Steelers are now favored by more on the road than they were last week in Buffalo. This is the first time this season that Cincinnati is getting points at home and the feeling it is unjustified in a divisional game of this magnitude. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. This situation is 150-95 ATS (61.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record and will step up to the occasion on Sunday once again. 10* (330) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After destroying the Jets on Monday night, the Colts put up a stinker last week at home against Houston and they now sit a game out of first place in the AFC South. We played against them last week because the line was way off but we are backing them this week based on what looks like not only another bad line, but a must win spot. Indianapolis travels to Oakland next week which makes this one pretty big. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but their bye week came and since then, they have gone just 2-6 as the offense has looked pretty putrid. While they scored 25 points in Jacksonville last week, they had to settle for four field goals which is not a good sign at all. The Minnesota defense has done its job for the most part but the offense has not been able to take advantage. The defense will be without safety Harrison Smith and while that was not a factor last week against Blake Bortles, it will be a factor this week against Andrew Luck. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Indianapolis Colts

Miami picked up a big win last week against Arizona but at the same time, suffered a big blow with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Luckily, he is not out for the rest of the season but his loss will be felt as Matt Moore takes over in his absence. Despite an 8-5 record, the Dolphins are getting outgained by over 40 ypg and that is the fifth worst differential in the league. You have to give the Jets credit last week for bouncing back from that awful effort against the Colts and also coming back from a 14-0 deficit last week against the 49ers to win in overtime. The last time they were featured at home in a national TV game was that game against Indianapolis and you can guarantee their effort will be better as to not get embarrassed again. overall, New York has struggled at home but it has been competitive for the most part and now are getting the second most points at home on the season. The Jets fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. 10* (304) New York Jets

Typically, we tend to shy away from team in bowl games that are playing with an interim coach after the head coach moved on to a different team. The situation in Houston is different however. Tom Herman left to become the head coach of Texas, and he is taking a few assistants with him to Austin. Houston initially named defensive coordinator Todd Orlando to be the interim coach for the bowl game, but recently announced it had promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to the position of head coach and he will be making his debut Saturday. This is a pretty big deal for motivational purposes. San Diego St. faltered toward the end of the season as it lost its final two regular season games before narrowly defeating Wyoming in the MWC Championship. The Aztecs were outgained in all three of those games and they did not fare well when playing good teams as they went 2-3 against fellow bowl teams while going 8-0 against non-bowl and FCS teams. San Diego St. is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as it is ranked No. 7 in rushing offense but it will struggle here facing the No. 3 ranked rushing defense and the stop units are more important at this stage. On the other side, Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was the only player to average over 300 yards passing per game and over 45 rushing yards per game, and the Cougars' offense finished the regular season fourth nationally in total offense (349.6 ypg). The Cougars are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game while the Aztecs have failed to cover four straight games against winning teams. 10* (203) Houston Cougars

Bowl season kicks off on Saturday in Albuquerque as UTSA squares off against New Mexico. The Roadrunners are making their first ever bowl appearance and while that seem like a motivational advantage, it really is not as teams in these situations, along with those making their first appearance in a very long time, are just happy to be here and are enjoying the festivities that go along with it. They are coming off a win over Charlotte to secure a bowl bid but this is a below average team that was outgained in eight of their 12 games. New Mexico is making its second straight appearance here and will be out to make up for the loss last season against Arizona despite outgaining the Wildcats. The Lobos have not won a bowl game since 2007 which happens to be the last time they have won this many games as they come in 8-4 including a 6-1 record over its last seven games. Few teams employ the option as effectively as New Mexico, which led the FBS in rushing yards this season with 360.9 ypg. What's more, the Lobos broke off a staggering 6.81 ypc and they fall into the ever-effective rushing situation where one team dominates all three rushing averages (more ypc on offense, less ypc on defense and a + ypc overall). The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win while New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog. Look for the Lobos to pull away comfortably on their home field. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos

The Ravens have won four out of their last five game to improve to 7-5 overall but they sit a half-game behind Pittsburgh, which has won four straight games, in the AFC North. That will set up a big showdown Christmas Day when they meet but Baltimore needs to worry about the present first. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense and scoring defense and that is a recipe for success late in the season when making a playoff charge. Another key factor is the offensive line. The Ravens are expected to go with the same starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight game which comes after Baltimore had seven different lineups the previous seven games. New England is the frontrunner in the AFC East as it has a 2.5-game lead on Miami and is on pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This is no easy out however as the Patriots are pretty banged up on offense. In addition to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett is banged up and Danny Amendola is out. Baltimore has beaten Tom Brady twice in New England in the postseason and could be 4-0 against him if Lee Evans had caught that pass in the end zone in 2011 and the Ravens had held on to a 14-point lead in 2014. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Baltimore Ravens

The Rams opened the season 3-1 and were looking like a possible playoff contender but the quarterback position has hurt them ever since. Jared Goff has taken over for Case Keenum and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. He is back home for his second start in Los Angeles and his first one here against Miami was not a bad one as he managed the game well as the defense let it slip away. Still, this is a very strong defense that is No. 10 overall and will give the Falcons some issues in their passing game. Atlanta lost a tough one last week as it allowed a defensive touchdown as well as a special teams score not mention a game losing two-point conversion return. Atlanta is now tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the AFC South so this is certainly a big game for the Falcons. They have more incentive but the linesmakers have taken that into consideration as they are laying the most points they have put down on the highway all season. Plain and simple, it is too many against a very strong defense. With the loss last week, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a loss by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (130) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for out NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. This is a great setup for the Dolphins as they look to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Riding a six-game winning streak going into Week 13, Miami went to Baltimore last Sunday and got hammered 38-6 while getting outgained by 219 total yards. That dropped the Dolphins to 7-5 and took them out of a Wild Card spot but a win here coupled with a Baltimore loss in New England on Monday gets them right back in. Miami ends the season with three divisional games which makes this a big one. Arizona heads to the east coast after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Washington last week. It was not very pretty for the Cardinals which are not playing well at all with wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers being the only ones of value. The three other wins have come against two teams a combined 4-20. They are still in the playoff race as well but they have struggled on the road with the lone win coming in San Francisco and they outgained the 49ers by just two total yards. The results last week are giving us value this week as the typical adjustments have to made after one week and not looking at the overall picture. 10* (116) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The winless Browns are running out of chances to avoid a 0-16 season and this could be the final chance to snag a victory. The remaining three games for Cleveland are at Buffalo, at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh so this is the easiest of its schedule to end the season. Additionally, this is a very good spot for the Browns as they are coming off their bye week after 12 straight games and they will be getting RGIII back at quarterback which has been the shakiest area for them on offense after he went out. Cincinnati kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Eagles last week which was its first win since Week Seven when it defeated the Browns. Andy Dalton finally put a complete game together but this team cannot be trusted on the road where the Bengals are 1-5 with the only win coming against the Jets by a single point. Here, we play on Underdogs or pickems that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winless on the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. Look for the Browns to collect their first victory of the season. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

We won with the Colts on Monday night and while it was a play on Indianapolis, it was just as much of a play against the Jets which failed to show up right from the start. After that 41-10 win, the Colts moved into a tie with Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South making this a big game for both sides. This line is not telling us that this is a divisional game between teams with the same record as Indianapolis is laying way too big of a number here. Houston has dropped three straight games following its eight-point loss in Green Bay last week. All three losses came by just one possession however so things have been close and everything points to an even closer one here. The offense has been bad over this stretch as the Texans have managed just 46 points over the three games but they will be taking on a very poor defense this week that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 28 in passing. That is welcome news for Brock Osweiler who has struggled in his first season with the Texans. Houston has covered six straight road division games while the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (109) Houston Texans

The Bills wasted a golden opportunity last week when they blew a 24-9 lead against the Raiders and lost to fall back to 6-6 on the season. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC and are two games out of the final Wild Card spot so they need to basically win out and hope for a lot help. The schedule is very manageable however as this is the start of three straight home games and they close the season in New York against the Jets. Buffalo has been outgained only four times since starting the season 0-2 and of those four losses, three could have resulted in wins. The Steelers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak but they are tough team to trust on the road. They are 3-3 but one of those wins came at winless Cleveland while another came at Indianapolis which was without Andrew Luck. They finish the season with three straight divisional games and the AFC West is still within grasp as they are tied with Baltimore for first place. This is definitely a big game for Pittsburgh as well but it should not be favored on the road here as these teams are more equal than their names suggest. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more straight wins while Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after two or more losses against the spread. 10* (114) Buffalo Bills

We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last five, the Cadets have covered four of those and we have been on them in each of those. Now Army enters the 2016 rivalry with one of its best teams in recent memory as it looks to break its 14-game losing streak in this series. The Black Knights opened the season 3-0 but then lost three of their next four games. Two of those losses could have been wins and in all three defeats, they outgained their opponents. Army suffered a pair of blowout losses to open November but was able to bounce back with a blowout win over Morgan St. and while the opponent was far from a good team, it was a needed boost of confidence before heading into this one. Additionally, they have had 20 days to prepare for Navy. The Midshipmen are coming off a disappointing loss against Temple in the AAC Championship which cost them a spot in the Cotton Bowl. Instead they have been relegated to the Armed Forces Bowl so they could come into this one a little down. For the first time since 1941, Navy has only one week to prepare for Army which is a pretty big disadvantage. Makings matters worse, the Midshipmen will be without two of their top three rushers including quarterback Will Worth who leads the team with 1,196 yards and 25 touchdowns. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more ypc, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Army Black Knights

Kansas City is finding ways to win but with them being dominated so much lately, it will catch up. The Chiefs are 7-1 over their last eight games but they have been outgained in six of those and most have not even been close. They have been outyarded in each of the last five games and by an average of 118.4 ypg. They were fortunate to come away with wins in each of the last two games with last week being the real fortunate one as they scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams while also returning a conversion attempt for two points. Oakland fell behind Buffalo 24-9 before scoring the final 29 points to pull out the two-touchdown win. That was the sixth straight win for the Raiders and in those, they were outgained only once. In their last 10 games, they have lost only once and that was against Kansas City at home and while road revenge is not a big factor, there will be some added motivation. Additionally, a win here could go a long way in locking up the AFC West as they would have a two-game lead with three to play. It is hard to ignore the fact Oakland is 5-0 on the road and playing with some of the best confidence in the league. While Kansas City is 4-1 at home, it has covered just once and that was against the lowly Jets. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders

The Colts hit the road following their Thanksgiving loss at home against Pittsburgh where they were missing Andrew Luck but he is now back after passing concussion protocol. Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road but has played better than that record shows. Two losses came by three points, one in overtime, while the third was in Denver by 14 points but it was down by just three points under the two-minute warning before allowing a defensive touchdown, the second of the game. With Houston losing yesterday, the Colts can get into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a victory. The Jets have lost three straight games and all of those were by five points or less including a tough loss to the Patriots last week. The playoffs are no longer a possibility and New York will be challenged to get up for this game after losing to their rivals last week knowing there is not much to play for at this point. The secondary has struggled all season and the pass rush has had trouble on the edges so Luck should be able to consistently move the ball down field. The Colts defense has been an issue all season but New York is ranked No. 28 in points scored. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (377) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers have been the hard luck team of the NFL this season. They are 5-6 as they have been depleted by injuries but still, all six of those losses have come within just one possession. San Diego is outgaining opponents by over 10 ypg which is not a huge gap and they are one of only four teams in the NFL with a losing record but possess a positive point differential. The playoff scenario may look bleak but the Chargers are not out of it. Tampa is coming off an upset win over Seattle which was its third straight win, all of which it was in the underdog role. The Buccaneers are now 6-5 and just a game off the lead in the NFC South. They have won three straight road games as well but on the season, they are getting outgained on average and unlike San Diego, they are in the negative in scoring differential. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 70-35 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (370) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. New Orleans snapped a two-game skid with a blowout win over Los Angeles last Sunday. While we were on the wrong side of that call, it sets up a great opportunity to go against the Saints this week. They are now 5-6 on the season and trail the Falcons by two games in the NFC South. They are again favored by a bigger than expected number. Detroit took care of Minnesota on Thanksgiving by a field goal for its third straight victory and sixth win over its last seven games. The Lions have the lead in the NFL North by a game and a half over Minnesota and two games over Green Bay so a win here would be huge for momentum with a home game against Chicago on deck. Detroit win here last December as a 2.5-point underdog and it came into that game 4-9 so the fact it is getting more points now is a bit of an overreaction for the Saints. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when the total is 49.5 or higher and it falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off two consecutive home wins. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (359) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons burned us last week as they rolled past Arizona and are in a great spot this week to make it two straight wins. Atlanta improved to 3-2 at home with the lone losses coming against Tampa Bay in the season opener and San Diego in overtime. The Falcons will not be looking past Kansas City for sure with games against Los Angeles and San Francisco up next. Kansas City was fortunate to win last week in Denver as a field goal that hit the upright and went in with two second left was the difference. The Chiefs were outgained by 191 yards and they have been outgained in four straight games. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-64 ATS (63 percent) since 1983. 10* (354) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville has dropped six straight games but unlike the past, most of the games have at least been competitive. The Jaguars have lost the last four by just one possession and three of those came on the road. They have been outgained only twice during this losing streak one of those was by just three yards which came last week in Buffalo. Three of their four home losses have been by a combined nine points. Denver lost a brutal game at home against Kansas City in overtime on a last second field goal that almost did not even go in. Now the Broncos hit the road in a very tough spot. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Jacksonville falls into another situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. 10* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars

After a perfect 6-0 start in the Mountain West Conference, San Diego St. went to Laramie to face the Cowboys and came away with a one-point loss. The hangover from that carried over into last week as the Aztecs got thumped at home against Colorado St. in what was a meaningless game as the MWC West Division was already locked up. What it did do however was force San Diego St. to once again travel to Laramie, this time with much more at stake. The win over the Aztecs also forced a letdown for Wyoming which lost at New Mexico last week by 21 points while getting outgained by 241 total yards. Wyoming allowed the Lobos to rush for 568 yards, the most by an FBS team this season and the most ever against a Wyoming defense. That is not good news for the Cowboys even though they held the Aztecs in check the first meeting. With the weather not expected to be good, the play of the defenses will be even more important and the Aztecs have a defense that is better by 157 total yards. Here, we play on road favorites revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 50-17 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. San Diego St. is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a loss by 28 or more points while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game. 10* (329) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a big number to be laying on the road but Arkansas St. should have no problem naming the score in this one. After six straight victories, the Red Wolves lost at Lafayette last week for their first conference loss and the ability to control their destiny for the Sun Belt Conference title. Now they must win here to gain a share of the title so the motivation is still in place. Arkansas St. actually outgained the Cajuns last week by 229 yards but gave up a defensive score, had to settle for two field goals, missed a field goal and were stopped on downs three times, twice inside the seven-yard line. Texas St. is 2-9 with one of those wins coming against Incarnate Word. The Bobcats have been outgained by every FBS foe by at least 116 yards including three times by at least 315 yards. They have dropped seven straight games and at this point, they are just playing out the string. Arkansas St. has a strong situation in its favor as we play on teams that are +/- 40 ypg rushing going up against teams getting outrushed by 80 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Red Wolves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing 31 or more ypg. 10* (319) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

There are two teams playing Saturday that need to win their final game to become bowl eligible and one of those is South Alabama. The Jaguars had an opportunity to clinch last week but lost at Idaho which has had a very solid season in its own right. Now they head back home where they are 4-2 compared to just 1-4 on the road and are being asked to lay a pretty inexpensive number with as much motivation as they are going to have. South Alabama has outgained its last four opponents. New Mexico St. will be home for the holidays for the 56th consecutive year as the Aggies come into their final game with a 3-8 record. One win came against 2-9 Texas St., another came by just one point and the final one in overtime. They are 0-6 on the road and they have won only nine road games over the last 11 years. While the New Mexico St. offense is third in the conference, it was held in check last week because quarterback Tyler Rogers, who leads the SBC in total offense, was out and he is doubtful again this week. New Mexico St. is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following one or more consecutive losses. Even though South Alabama owns two wins over FCS teams, but the NCAA approved a waiver due to the cancellation of its game with LSU. 10* (312) South Alabama Jaguars

Temple is rolling as it has won six straight games to win the AAC East over South Florida thanks to 16-point win over the Bulls which was part of this current winning streak. The Owls are on an even more impressive ATS run as they have covered 11 straight games after losing to Army in their season opener. While taking nothing away from winning the East, but Temple was fortunate to miss Navy, Houston and Tulsa from the West so they did benefit from an easier schedule than most. Navy is rolling along as well as it has won four straight and six of its last seven games. It gets the chance to host the championship game based on being ranked 25th in the College Football Playoff poll, which is the second tiebreaker following head-to-head. The Midshipmen have won 15 consecutive games at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, which is the longest active home field winning streak in FBS football. Here, we play against road teams after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Navy is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games while going 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. 10* (326) Navy Midshipmen

Washington has played only a few average to below average games this season, one resulting in a loss and two resulting in wins by just a touchdown each. Everything else has been a blowout and the Huskies have outgained their opponents by an average of close to 160 ypg. The blowout over Washington St. in the Apple Cup last weekend was a statement win as many thought the Cougars had a chance for the upset. Colorado has put together a great season with low expectations coming in. The Buffaloes are 10-2 but it really did not come from out of nowhere as they returned 18 starters from a team that lost five of nine games by just one possession. How will they react here though is the question? Colorado was blown out in Michigan and lost to USC before the Trojans got particularly hot. Both teams possess stout defenses but Washington has the edge on offense as it is third in the nation in points scored, averaging 10 ppg more than the Buffaloes. Washington falls into a great situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that average 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 58-22 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (306) Washington Huskies

The Dallas spread run finally came to an end as it failed to cover against Washington on Thanksgiving. Still, the Cowboys have won ten straight games outright but they are in a tough spot this week playing a desperate team with a fantastic defense in need of a win. Dallas has put up at least 24 points during the winning streak but now it faces the best defense it has seen all season in a hostile environment. The Vikings lost for the fifth time in six games on Thursday as the offense could do little once again. Stefon Diggs was a late scratch but he will be back this week while Kyle Rudolph will be good to go after leaving the Detroit game with a shoulder injury. The public is and will be all over the Cowboys again this week and that is a spot we will fade Thursday night. The Vikings have two contrarian situations in their favor. First, we play against road favorites allowing 90 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in 2 straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in 2 straight games. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (302) Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay is mired in a four-game losing streak and it sits two and a half games behind Detroit in the NFC North. All games are big but this is a really big one for the Packers as a fifth straight loss would essentially put them in a spot they could not recover from. The schedule has been part of the problem as while they had a four-game homestand in parts of September and October, they are now playing their fourth road game in a five-game stretch and third in a row. Philadelphia is 5-5 following a loss in Seattle last Sunday making this a big game for the Eagles as well. The edge would seem to go to Philadelphia considering that the home team is 9-1 in its games this season but while this number may not seem big, it is matched for the largest line the Eagles have put down this season, tying it with the -4 against the Browns Week One. Being over the key number of 3 is huge in this case. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, we play against home favorites off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 93-48 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 106-60 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (275) Green Bay Packers

The Rams lost a tough one last week as they blew a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter in falling to the Dolphins 14-10. The offense was not able to generate much but quarterback Jared Goff was fairly efficient as he went 17-31 for 134 yards and most importantly, no picks. He gets a much better matchup this week and after one game under his belt, he should be able to open it up more. The Saints lost their second straight game following a pair of wins to fall to 4-6 and remain two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. This is the identical record as that of the Rams yet New Orleans is laying a touchdown and even more in some places. The key here is the defenses as the Saints are ranked No. 22 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense while the Rams are No. 6 and No. 5 respectively. The Rams have two situations on their side. First, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 49-16 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against home teams after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams

The Bengals have not won since before their trip to London as they are 0-2-1 but a couple breaks their way and they could be on a four-game winning streak right now. The two losses came by a combined five points against the Giants and Bills and now they head to Baltimore in a must win game without their top playmaker A.J. Green. There is still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and despite being three games under .500, it is just -27 in point differential and just a game and a half behind Pittsburgh. Baltimore is coming off a loss at Dallas to fall to 5-5 and it is now 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Of the five wins, only one has been a dominating one and that was against Cleveland two games back. The Ravens have been outgained in five of their last six games so this is a team not to trust laying points of anything more than a field goal. Cincinnati falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams at +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while the Ravens are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. 10* (257) Cincinnati Bengals

Surprising to some, San Diego is favored on the road at Houston but it really is not that big of a surprise. The Chargers are just 4-6 on the season but they have lost some tough games all season, five of which have come by seven points or less. They have outgained six of their last seven opponents and despite a 1-4 road record, all of those losses could have been wins including two that went to overtime. Houston is coming off a devastating loss against the Raiders in Mexico City as it has a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter but then allowed two touchdowns. That is a tough loss to recover from as the offense continues to bog the whole team down. The Texans are No. 30 in total offense and No. 28 in scoring offense. Conversely, the Chargers are No. 8 and No. 2 respectively in those categories and are very balanced. The Texans possess a strong defense but after what happened in the fourth quarter Monday night, that defense is vulnerable. Here, we play on road favorites that are completing 60 or more of their passes, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) San Diego Chargers

We played against Arizona last Sunday in Minnesota as that was a bad matchup for the Cardinals. They actually held their own however as they outgained Minnesota by 73 total yards but were killed by a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now they go from facing the No. 3 ranked defense to facing the No. 28 ranked defense so the offense should be fine after putting less than 300 yards last week. Atlanta has lost three of its last five games and following its bye week, this is a big game for the Falcons but the matchup is not in their favor at all. Despite this, they are laying a bigger than expected number and this time of year, the defenses are very important. While Matt Ryan and the offense has been great all year, Atlanta now has to tackle the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. While it has suffered some close losses, Atlanta has had its share of close wins that could have gone the other way. The Falcons fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Arizona Cardinals

There are nine teams playing on Saturday that must win to reach six victories and gain a bowl game berth. One of those is Vanderbilt which improved to 5-6 with a big win over Mississippi 38-17. The Commodores improved to 3-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined 10 points to Florida and South Carolina and overall, only one of their six losses have been by double-digits which came at Georgia Tech. The defense has kept them in most of their games this season. Tennessee as it opened 5-0 but had trouble pulling away in most of those then went on to lose three straight games. The Volunteers have recovered to win their last three games but one was against Tennessee Tech of the FCS and another was against 3-8 Missouri. The other came against Kentucky but they were outgained in the process. Additionally, all three of those games were at home and in four road games, Tennessee has been outgained three times. Vanderbilt has the nation’s second-best red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (26 of 39). The Commodores have been particularly good in holding teams to field goals, as opponents have scored only 18 touchdowns in 39 trips inside the 20. 10* (212) Vanderbilt Commodores

Oregon played its bowl game last week as after enduring seven losses in eight games, the Ducks won at Utah to deny the Utes and chance of winning the Pac 12 South Division. They are just 4-7 and while they will be pumped for the Civil War, how much they have left in the tank in the question. Oregon has won eight straight in this series but in all of those instances, the Ducks came in with at least eight wins. Oregon St. is not having a good season wither as the Beavers are 3-8 but they are also coming off a win as they blew out Arizona last week 42-17. Ending the season with two straight wins would be huge as they have not accomplished that since 2007 which happened to be the last time they defeated Oregon. The Ducks are just 1-5 ATS as favorites this season including 0-2 ATS on the road while Oregon St. is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. The Beavers have a great situation on their side as we play against road teams coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (190) Oregon St. Beavers

We played on Minnesota last week as it defeated Northwestern and we will back the Gophers again this week. They are 8-3 on the season and none of those three losses were bad losses. All came against teams with at least seven wins and the losses came by three, seven and seven points. The Gophers have a chance to win nine games in a season for the first time in 13 years. Wisconsin is having a very strong season at 9-2 with those two losses coming against Ohio St. and Michigan in consecutive games and both were by just a touchdown. While this game is arguably more important for the Badgers based on the Playoff rankings, Minnesota is not going to back down in this heated rivalry game. The Paul Bunyan Axe is at stake today and even though Wisconsin has won the last 12 editions, seven have been decided by fewer points than what Minnesota is getting here and those were a lot worse Gopher teams. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better that have won eight or more out of their last 10 games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (165) Minnesota Golden Gophers

It has been an up and down season for Miami as it started 4-0 then lost four straight games but has followed that up with three consecutive victories. The defense has been the story in the turnaround as the Hurricanes allowed 28 points against Pittsburgh which is the fewest points the Panthers have scored since Week One and the last two weeks they have allowed 13 and 14 points. The offense has also shown an uptick during the current winning streak. Duke was aiming for a fifth straight bowl game but the goal was denied last week in Pittsburgh as the Blue Devils were hammered 56-14. It has now been four losses in the last five games for Duke as the defense continues to get pummeled. Of their 10 games against FBS opponents, the Blue Devils have been outgained in eight of those and will have a tough time keeping up with Miami as they are not nearly as talented while mentally, they have to be in a tough place after the loss last week, Miami falls into a great situation based on its defense as we play on teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Miami Florida Hurricanes

We played against Toledo in its last game as it went through the motions against Ball St. in looking ahead to this game while trying to remain as healthy as possible. The Rockets can take the MAC West with the victory and while they do have two losses, they were by a combined seven points and they won the yardage battle in both. Western Michigan has steamrolled the opposition all season with each of its last 10 wins coming by at least 14 points. However, one look at the schedule will show why as of those 10 wins, only two came against teams that will be playing in a bowl game and none with more than seven wins. This line is not giving Toledo the respect it deserves. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 475 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Broncos are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams averaging 425 ypg while Toledo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. 10* (117) Toledo Rockets

This is likely the final game for Texas head coach Charlie Strong as all indications is that he will be fired at the end of the regular season. The Longhorns need a win to secure a bowl bid and while Strong probably will not be around to coach them should they win, the players have his back and they will be playing for him here. TCU is also in need of one more win but it has two games left as it hosts Kansas St. next week. The Horned Frogs have endured some close losses this season but they have been outgained in four of their last six games including a horrible performance at home against Oklahoma St. last week in a 31-6 loss. TCO has rolled over Texas in the last two meetings 48-10 and 50-7 so there is the element of revenge in play here as well. Texas falls into a solid great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. TCU is just 2-8 ATS this season and while those two wins were on the road, Texas is 4-1 ATS at home this season, the lone setback coming by just four points against a very solid West Virginia team. 10* (128) Texas Longhorns

There are four teams playing on Friday that need to win to get a bowl bid and NC State is one of those teams. The Wolfpack have faltered down the stretch by going 1-5 over their last six games after a 4-1 start but the rivalry aspect can throw this recent streak out the window. Four of their lasses have come by a touchdown or less including two where they actually won the yardage battle as turnovers were the difference. North Carolina has a lot at stake as well but needs a lot of help to attain it. The Tar Heels need to win here and have Virginia Tech lose to 2-9 Virginia on Saturday for them to win the ACC Coastal but the latter is very unlikely to happen. North Carolina can still take care of business here but covering a huge number is a totally different story. The Tar Heels have three wins by a touchdown or less this season and going back, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Meanwhile NC State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two consecutive games where it forced one or less turnovers. Rumor has it that NC State head coach Dave Doeren will be let go his team not go to a bowl game but his players will go all out in trying to save him. 10* (133) NC State Wolfpack

Dallas continues its dominating run as it has now won and covered nine straight games. The Cowboys were fortunate with the cover last week on a late field goal and because of the run, linesmakers have to keep making adjustments and now they are favored by the most they have been all season. Washington is coming off a pair of wins following its London trip and a bye week. This is the last opportunity to close the gap in the division as a win here gets the Redskins to within a game and a half while a loss here would make it a 3.5-game deficit and the loss of head-to-head tiebreaker. These teams played back in September with Washington closing as a 3.5-point favorite so we are seeing a massive line change in the second meeting. Sure Dallas is 8-0 since that first meeting but Washington is 6-1-1 over the same stretch and the two non-wins could have been victories as the Redskins outgained both Detroit and Cincinnati. Washington is a better team than Baltimore yet is getting a bigger number than the Ravens. Dallas has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far and with Washington being 2-1-1 on the road, this is the first time this season the Cowboys are playing a team with a winning road record. 10* (109) Washington Redskins

Minnesota snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over Arizona last Sunday and while it was a much needed win, it was not overly impressive as the Vikings were outgained by 73 yards. They returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown and returned a kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown and those were the obvious differences. Still, they are in good shape to start another winning streak. Detroit has won two straight and five of its last six games to keep pace in the division as the Lions remain tied with Minnesota at 6-4. This is a rare game on Thanksgiving for the Lions that actually means something as a win here not only gives them the lead but also gives them the tiebreaker by virtue of the 2-0 season sweep. However, this team is overrated right now as Detroit has been outgained in six of its last seven games and the stats tell the story as the offense is ranked No. 25 in total yards while the defense is ranked No. 19 in total yards. While the Minnesota offense is dead last in the league, the defense is ranked No. 3 overall and No. 2 in points allowed. That defense is a difference maker and that will be the case here. The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings

The Raiders are listed as the home team here and are favored at a home team price, maybe even more, but this is a neutral site game with huge value on the side of the Texans. As expected, this line has risen a bunch as it opened at 4.5 and has gone up two points in some places which is a great reason for not taking this game early in the week based on the expected line movement. Time off can be a momentum killer and that can certainly be the case with the Raiders tonight. Oakland has won three straight games and six of its last seven and because of the Chiefs loss yesterday, the Raiders have sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Houston is only a game worse than Oakland but the line is not taking that into consideration. The Texans have won their last two games and are a game and a half up in the AFC South. While the host is 8-1 in the nine Houston games, that cannot be taken into consideration here with the game being played in Mexico. The Texans are a bad matchup for the potent Raiders offense as they have yielded the third fewest passing scores (8) and passing yards per game (196.8) in the NFL. Oakland has outgained only two opponents this season and will have trouble in adding to that tonight. 10* (475) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Washington will be out for some payback following a loss to the Packers in the playoffs last season and under normal circumstances, we could by that. This is not a normal circumstance however. Washington defeated the Vikings last week after blowing a 14-0 lead but was able to win the second half 12-0 with four field goals. It is hard to get a grasp on this team as the Redskins have had narrow wins and narrow losses and even a tie in there. One thing we do know is that Green Bay cannot afford a fourth straight loss. The NFC playoff race is pretty wide open still will 11 teams possessing four or five wins. The Packers need to turn this around and this is the spot to do it with a third straight road gamed looming at Philadelphia next Monday night. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Redskins are 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (473) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL November Game of the Month. We have played on the Vikings the last two weeks and bad fortunes arose both times in the kicking game. Minnesota has now lost four straight games, covering none of those, after a 5-0 straight up and ATS start. The offense played a lot better last week than it did against Detroit as Sam Bradford had a solid game with the exception of an interception. Arizona is not nearly the same team that went 13-3 last season despite loads of talent on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals are not executing when they have to as they are outgaining most of their opponents but scores are closer than they should be and some resulting in outright losses. This is just the fourth road game of the season for Arizona, the first three resulting in losses at Buffalo and Carolina and an ugly win in San Francisco. Something has to give in this one with the Cardinals on a three-game winless ATS streak and we give a big edge to the home team. Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record while Minnesota is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (460) Minnesota Vikings

After a 7-2 start to the season, Kansas City is an incredible 17-2 in its last 19 regular season games and 18-3 in its last 21 games after a 1-5 start to last season. This includes a perfect 10-0 record at home leaving many of us scratching our heads on how they are accomplishing this. The Chiefs are getting outgained by 33.3 ypg and while a bulk of that came in one game against Jacksonville, they have been outgained in six of nine games including four wins. Having the best turnover margin in the NFL is the reason they are having success in the win column. Tampa Bay is right in the thick of the NFC playoff race and win here gets the Buccaneers back to .500. Tampa Bay is 3-1 on the road but surprisingly, it is getting more points here than 2-7 Jacksonville did just three weeks ago. The Buccaneers too have been outgained in the majority of their games but have had a knack for keeping things close. Kansas City has failed to cover both games when favored by a touchdown and Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games and 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games against teams with a winning home record. Additionally, the Chiefs are 0-7 in their last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (455) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is another line that makes absolutely no sense. The Bears, while they were blown out, ended up being favored in Tampa Bay last week and are now getting over a touchdown against the Giants. That is saying that New York is 10 points better than Tampa Bay and that is not the case at all, not even close. While Chicago is just 2-7, it has outgained five of nine opponents and is outgaining opponents on average overall. Turnovers have been the story which is always the case when stats do not line up with wins or losses. The Giants are sitting at 6-3 which is the third best record in the NFC thanks to four straight wins. All of those games could have been lost so give them credit for showing the ability to win in close situations but now they are completely overvalued. This is the most they have been favored by since Week Five of last season when they were favored by 7.5 points over San Francisco and snuck out a three-point win. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (457) Chicago Bears

Dallas is on a huge roll right now but everyone know that thanks to the media talking about it all the time. Clearly this is a great team but like the Giants, they are now hitting the other side of pricing and that means overpriced. The Cowboys have rarely been favored by a touchdown or more of late but now they are laying that size of a number to a very underrated team. Dallas has won and covered eight straight games and are now once again America's Team at the betting window. The Ravens picked up a big win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago and followed that up with an easy win over Cleveland last Thursday giving them a little extra time off for this one. Baltimore leads the NFL in total defense and is tied for third in points allowed at just 17.8 so this will be easy going for Dallas in the least bit. All four of the Baltimore losses have been by eight points or less and by an average of just 4.8 ppg. Here, we play on Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (463) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Tulsa is coming off a loss at Navy last week by two points which pretty much knocked it out of the AAC West Division race. It was the second conference loss of the season with the other coming against Houston by just a touchdown. The Golden Hurricane has a potent offense that has scored 40 or more points in eight of their ten games this season. UCF became bowl eligible with a win over Cincinnati last Saturday and it has been an incredible turnaround for the Knights which won no games last season. It is a bit skewed however as despite a 4-2 record over their last six games, the Knights have been outgained in all of them. The defense has been solid but this will be a true test. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road conference games. 10* (391) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS for our CFB Game of the Week. San Diego St. has already clinched the MWC West Division as it has blown through the opposition with six blowout victories. The lone defeat this season came at South Alabama after giving up 21 fourth quarter points but it has used that as a motivator and is still in line for a major bowl. Wyoming suffered its first conference loss last week as it fell to UNLV 69-66 in three overtimes. The Cowboys are still in the hunt for the MWC Mountain Division but a loss like that is tough to recover from. This is a horrible matchup for them because of the rushing disadvantage as in all three losses this season, they have been outrushed while San Diego St. is outrushing opponents on the season by an average of 207.5 ypg. Weather is always a concern here this time of year but it will be fine this Saturday. San Diego St. falls into a great situation where we play against home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games. This situation is 32-5 ATS (86.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (351) San Diego St. Aztecs

Texas Tech nearly pulled off the upset last week as it lost by a point at Oklahoma St. forcing the Red Raiders to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They host Baylor next week and while that looked daunting a while back, it is definitely within reach now. The Texas Tech offense is the best in the nation and while the defense is one of the worst, that will not matter here. Iowa St. is below average on both sides of the ball and following a hard fought win over Kansas last week, the Cyclones will have their hands full here. The win snapped a five-game losing streak and both victories this season have come against teams with a combined four wins. Iowa St. has been outgained in seven of 10 games and all seven resulted in losses so if Texas Tech can win the yardage battle, winning and covering this small number is a given. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (327) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Northwestern is coming off a blowout win over Purdue last week to get to within one win of bowl eligibility. It has been a solid turnaround for the Wildcats after a 0-2 start as they are on a 5-3 run with two close losses coming against Ohio St. and Wisconsin. They have covered five of six games and because of that, they are now laying points on the road against a quality opponent. Minnesota is 7-3 on the season following a loss last week at Nebraska and those three losses have come by just 17 points combined. The Golden Gophers have had a very favorable schedule, missing both Michigan and Ohio St. but they were expected to have a solid season and they have lived up to those expectations. There is also the issue of payback as Minnesota will be out to avenge a 27-0 loss to Northwestern last season and couple that with the lack of respect based on this line, we will see a full effort from Minnesota in its final home game of the season. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss while northwestern is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after gaining 325 or more yard passing last game. 10* (332) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Pittsburgh is coming off a monster upset of Clemson last week and you know what that means. Letdown and inflated line this week. The Panthers improved to 6-4 with the victory to obtain bowl eligibility and despite a 2-2 record over their last four games, they have been outgained in all four of those contests. That is a definite red flag. The offense has been great all season but the defense has been atrocious coming in at No. 100 overall and that is bad news facing a Duke offense that is finding its identity. The Blue Devils are coming off an upset of their own as they defeated rival North Carolina last week but there is less risk of a letdown as they need to win Saturday and at Miami next week to become bowl eligible. While they have only one road win, they have covered three of those four games and the one they did not, they were outgained by only 10 yards against Northwestern. Duke is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams allowing 425 or more ypg while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl. Pittsburgh is 06 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 575 or more yards last game. 10* (335) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We won with Utah a couple weeks back as it played Washington toe-to-toe before the Huskies pulled off the win thanks to a punt returned for a touchdown. That was just the second loss for the Utes, the other coming by just five points against California, and they remain a game behind Colorado in the Pac 12 South. They play in Colorado next week so that makes this a must win situation. Oregon has had a horrible season and this will be the first losing season since 2004. The Ducks chances of a bowl game were dashed last week in a 52-27 blowout loss at home against Stanford. They have been outgained in six of seven conference games and at this point, they just want the season to come to an end which also likely means the end of head coach Mark Helfrich after four years. Utah falls into a great momentum situation where we play against teams after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games going up against an opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (412) Utah Utes

We played on Cincinnati last Saturday against UCF and it was a tough loss. Despite losing by 17 points, the Bearcats actually outgained the Knights by 22 yards but had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown while losing the turnover battle 3-0. It was the second straight loss for Cincinnati and second straight game where they managed only three points but that changes Friday. The Bearcats need to win their last two games so next Friday will not matter if they do not get the job done here. Memphis is also coming off a loss as it fell at home against South Florida and after a 3-0 start, the Tigers are just 3-4 in their last seven games. They have been outgained in five of those games (Cincinnati has been outgained only four times in its last seven games) so the fact they are over a touchdown favorite on the road is a bit surprising. Memphis is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 37 or more points in consecutive games while Cincinnati falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 after two or more consecutive straight up losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 29-14 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (316) Cincinnati Bearcats

New Orleans got hosed last week following a blocked extra point that would have given it the lead late and the subsequence return for Denver that was upheld despite Will Parks stepping out of bounds. Whether or not the Saints would have won in overtime is the question but nonetheless, that was a devastating loss and one that will be difficult to recover from. Carolina lost a heartbreaker as well as it blew a 17-0 lead against Kansas City by allowing 20 unanswered points. The Panthers outplayed the Chiefs as they won the yardage battle by 85 yards while forcing four field goals. The difference was turnovers as a late fumble allowed the game winning field goal while an interception return was the only touchdown for Kansas City. Remaining home is the key factor for the Panthers and they will have to take advantage of that with a pair of tough road games coming up. Carolina will be out for payback as well after losing to the Saints by a field goal last month. Carolina falls into a great situation based on the revenge angle where we play on favorites that are revenging a loss by seven points or less, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Carolina is 35-11 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points while going 18-4 ATS in its last 22 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. 10* (310) Carolina Panthers

This game was circled by Houston when the season began as running the table to get to the College Football Playoff meant winning this game, the only real marquee game on the schedule after the season opener against Oklahoma. The Cougars slipped up against Navy however as they lost by six points despite outgaining the Midshipmen by 102 total yards as turnovers did them in. Houston would also eventually lose at SMU but that result likely would have been different had it beaten Navy as that loss has been a letdown for the rest of the season. But now the Cougars can get up for a quality opponent and try to ruin the season for Louisville which comes into this game ranked No. 5 in the College Football Playoff. The Cardinals are coming off a pair of blowout victories but they have not been very consistent following four straight routs to open the season. While the ultimate goal for Houston is gone, it still has an outside shot at a New Year's Six bowl if it can record a second win over a Top Five-ranked team. Houston goes from a 27-point favorite to a 14-point underdog in a span of two games and while the two opponents are clearly not in the same discussion, that is a huge line move involving a team as good as Houston is. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against teams allowing 100or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Houston Cougars

Western Michigan does not play until Saturday but the fact it is favored by five touchdowns against Buffalo, a win by Toledo tonight sets up the battle for the MAC West next Friday between the Rockets and Broncos. While a win is expected, a win by a large margin is not as the goal here is to get by and move onto next week without any injuries. Ball St. suffered a tough loss against Eastern Michigan last week as it blew an early first quarter 21-point lead and a late fourth quarter one-point lead to fall by a touchdown. Eastern Michigan reached bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly two decades by virtue of the win, while Ball St. needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible after a two-year drought. The Cardinals know what is at stake and because they are on the cusp of bowl eligibility, they had to have played somewhat good this season and that has been the case. Of Ball St.'s six losses, five were decided by 10 points or fewer. In three of those losses, the Cardinals lost the turnover battle by at least two and that will be important tonight to take care of the ball. Ball St. falls into a favorable situation as we play on road teams that are averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against team allowing between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (305) Ball St. Cardinals

The Bengals are coming off a bye week following a tie against the Redskins in London. They are now 3-4-1 on the season but are just a game behind the Ravens in the AFC North while tied in the loss column. While they do have a losing record, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 17 ypg. Coming off games in London, it seems predicable that teams would be tired from the travel even with a bye week sandwiched in there but that has not been the case. With the Washington win yesterday, teams are 10-0-1 ATS in the last 11 games following a trip over the pond. This includes a Giants cover against the Eagles last week following their game against the Rams but that was a deceptive win and cover. New York was outgained by 141 total yards but won thanks to bad coaching decisions by Philadelphia. It was actually the fourth time in five games that the Giants have been outgained yet they are still 3-2 over that stretch and a 0-5 record instead is not unrealistic. The five wins have come by an average of only 4.0 ppg and on the season, New York is getting outgained by over 31 ypg. Here, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game. 10* (275) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Play. While the Seahawks have the second best record in the NFC, many people are down on them as they have not looked very good in doing so. They have been outgained in four straight games and that is due to the offense which has not been very efficient but that changes here as the Patriots defense is not that strong. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is as good as promised as it is ranked No. 9 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Tom Brady has been lights out since his return from a four-game suspension but he has not faced a defense of this caliber yet. And while all four wins have been blowouts, the Patriots have had the luxury of facing Landry Jones and Charlie Whitehurst which has padded the already average defensive numbers. In their last home game against Cincinnati, the Patriots were favored by the same amount of points as they are here and the Bengals cannot be compared to Seattle. Since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback, the Seahawks have lost 22 games and only two have been by more than a touchdown. Going back, the Seahawks are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (273) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. After a 4-1 start, the Steelers have lost three straight games and are now a half-game behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger made his return last week and there was visible rust as he was basically game-day decision and came in with limited preparation time. Now he has had a full week of practice with the first team and will be in much better shape physically as well. After Tony Romo went down, no one Dallas a chance but it has been a huge surprise thanks to the play of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have reeled off seven straight wins and covers including four on the road. Two of those were against Cleveland and San Francisco however and this will not be the biggest road test of the season. Because of the opposite runs, we are laying a shorter than anticipated price and just below a key number which adds more value to it. While coming off a divisional loss can be deflating to some teams, that will not be the case for the Steelers because the skid goes back further and all with an unhealthy Roethlisberger. And how much has it affected Pittsburgh in the past? Not much as the Steelers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games off a divisional loss as a favorite. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played on the Vikings last week and it was an unfortunate loss for them as a missed extra point, a blocked field goal and a Detroit 58-yard field goal sent the game into overtime which they eventually lost. That was the third straight loss for Minnesota and just like that, it is being written off. This is exactly the time to ride the Vikings however as we can buy them low. Washington is coming off its bye week following its game in London where it tied Cincinnati. Following four straight wins, the Redskins are 0-1-1 in their last two games and while heading home may seem like the way to get back into the win column, they are just 2-2 at home this season. As mentioned last week, the Vikings have a new offensive coordinator after Norv Turner resigned and while it did not do much good last Sunday, the additional week heading into Washington will be important. Minnesota falls into a solid contrarian rushing situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 or fewer ypc going up against teams allowing 4.5 or more ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (261) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons started the season 4-1 and after a couple close losses out west, they have won their last two games including a win at Tampa Bay last Thursday. Because of that, they get a little extra rest but can almost negate that because of the travel aspect on both ends of it. Matt Ryan is having an MVP season but the defense is still a work in progress so Atlanta has been fortunate that Ryan has been there to bail out the stop unit. That should not be the case today as the Eagles are desperate for a victory after losses in four of their last five games. They have really only played one bad game which came against Washington as the other three losses were all winnable. The schedule did not help matter as four of those five games were on the road. Philadelphia is 3-0 at home including impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Minnesota so this will only add to it. Here, we play against road favorites after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 on the season. Despite the solid run, the Falcons are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites and they are in that role after opening as underdogs. Bad line move. 10* (260) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our MWC Game of the Year. New Mexico became bowl eligible last week with a win over Nevada, its fourth straight victory. Going back to last season, the Lobos are 12-6 in their last 18 regular season games so Bob Davie has done an incredible job in turning this program around after three straight 1-11 seasons before his arrival. Utah St. has an outside shot at making a bowl game but must win its final three games to do so. The big reason it is a longshot is because of injuries as starting quarterback Kent Myers was hurt last week in Wyoming and his status in uncertain for this week. Additionally, running back Davante Mays, who led the team in rushing last season, is doubtful. The Aggies have lost two straight and five of their last six games while two of their wins have come against Weber St. of the FCS and 1-9 Fresno St. They have won the yardage battle only three times all season and being the favorite here is questionable. New Mexico falls into a great situation as we play against home team after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (215) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Saturday Star Attraction. Michigan sits at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings as it has blown through the opposition, outscoring opponents by an average of 37.3 ppg. But the Wolverines are another team that has played a weak schedule thus far as it is ranked No. 52 in the nation. They struggled in two games against quality teams, Colorado and Wisconsin, and face a difficult test here even though it may be considered a down year for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 5-4 on the season following a pair of losses in their last two games including a blowout loss at Penn St. last week. The three losses prior to that were by a combined 17 points so they had been competitive and you can guarantee they will put up a full effort Saturday night. This is just the third road game of the season for Michigan and the first two came against Rutgers and Michigan St. which are a combined 4-14 overall including 0-12 in the Big Ten. One huge edge for Iowa is on scoring opportunities as the 92.9 red zone scoring percentage for Iowa is first in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 26-for-28 in the red zone with 20 touchdowns and six field goals. Iowa is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc while Michigan is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 10* (210) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Saturday Enforcer. Washington moved up to No. 4 in the College Football playoff rankings and the pressure is only getting worse. The Huskies have outgained every opponent this season but they have played a very soft schedule thus far. Their schedule is ranked No. 68 in the country according to Sagarin which is the lowest ranked schedule of any power team that is ranked in the top 32 of the recent power rankings. Washington struggled in its only real tough game against Utah as it needed a punt return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. USC opened the season 1-3 but has gone onto win five straight games in dominating fashion. The Trojans have outgained all five of these opponents by at least 154 yards and by a total of 1,064 yards. This is obviously a tough test and while they failed miserably against Alabama in their season opener, this is a completely different team now. The insertion of Sam Darnold at starting quarterback has completely rejuvenated the offense and Washington could have a tough time here. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points involving teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (187) USC Trojans

Auburn is another team that has found a resurgence after a slow start to the season as the Tigers have reeled off six straight wins to improve to 7-2 on the season and there is actually talk about making the College Football Playoff should they win out. They have not looked great the last two weeks however as they snuck by Vanderbilt last week and really should have lost at Mississippi two weeks ago as the Rebels were ready to take the lead but dropped a touchdown pass and the next play resulted in an interception that led to an Auburn for the final 11-point margin. Georgia is having a tough season at 5-4 but in reality the Bulldogs have only had two bad games, a 31-point loss at Mississippi and a two-point win over Nicholls. Georgia has outgained six of nine opponents and been hurt by turnovers which will cause any team to underachieve. Head coach Kirby Smart has an edge here against the Auburn offense as he knows that system well facing the Tigers every year as the Alabama defensive coordinator. Georgia will counter the Auburn ground game with a front seven that ranks third in the SEC against the run. The Bulldogs limit opponents to 3.4 ypc and just under 120 ypg. This cis a big yet underrated rivalry and Georgia would like nothing more than to become bowl eligible against the Tigers and snapping their winning streak. 10* (162) Georgia Bulldogs

It has been a struggle this season for Cincinnati which has dropped consecutive games to fall below .500 for the first time this season. The Bearcats need two wins to become bowl eligible and with the final two games against teams already bowl eligible, this is a big game to win outright. The offense has struggled of late but the defense has helped keep Cincinnati in a number of games. The Bearcats are opportunistic in the back end and particularly strong up the gut with MLB Eric Wilson and tackles Alex Pace, Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. UCF was good to us three weeks ago at Connecticut but in reality it was a fortunate cover as the Knights were outgained in that game. As a matter of fact, they have been outgained in their last five games despite winning three of those outright. In those three wins, UCF won the turnover battle 10-4 while scoring three defensive touchdowns as well as a special teams score. Overall, the Knights are outgaining opponents by just 3.8 ypg and while the Bearcats are much below that, the size of this line is not warranted by that. Here, we play against home team that are averaging between 6.4 and 7.5 passing ypa going up against teams allowing between 6.4 and 7.5 passing ypa, after allowing 4.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (123) Cincinnati Bearcats

We played against Penn St. two weeks ago which ended up being a poor call as the Nittany Lions trounced Purdue in the second half as they avoided the letdown of the win over Ohio St. Now they hit the road again following a blowout win over Iowa at home last week and this will definitely be a test. A win over the Hoosiers and Penn St., which closes conference play with games at Rutgers (2-7, 0-6) and at home against Michigan State (2-7, 0-6), could end the regular season with 10 wins. While that is a definite possibility, we are not giving them this one just because they are favored. Indiana needs one win to become bowl eligible after winning its last two games in dominating fashion. The Hoosiers defeated Maryland and Rutgers by just six points each but they won the yardage battle by 133 and 216 yards respectively and that is classified as dominating. They had four turnovers last week against the Scarlet Knights which was the main cause for the closer for the low victory margin. The Hoosiers have been strong on offense this year and rank third in the Big Ten with 468.8 ypg and the Penn St. defense is pretty average. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (128) Indiana Hoosiers

Baltimore got itself back into the AFC North race by defeating Pittsburgh to pull into a tie with the Steelers for first place at 4-4. It has been an up and down year for the Ravens which opened the season 3-0, none of which were dominant victories, and then dropped four straight before the win last week. Baltimore has now been outgained in four straight games. The Browns disaster of a season continues as they were thoroughly outplayed last week against the Cowboys. As mentioned last week, they have been extremely competitive in half of their games while getting bullied around by some of the elite teams like Dallas and New England. Baltimore is far from an elite team. Cleveland could have won the first meeting as it built a 20-0 lead only to see it completely disappear in the 25-20 loss. A blocked extra point returned for two points really turned the game as did a shoulder injury to Browns quarterback Josh McCown. We have two contrarian situations on our side. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (109) Cleveland Browns

This is a must win game for Duke as it has six losses and another one will put it out of bowl contention. The Blue Devils three wins this season have been pretty suspect however as one came against North Carolina Central of the FCS while the other two came against Notre Dame and Army despite getting outgained in both of those games. As a matter of fact, Duke has been outgained in all but one of its FBS games and the one exception was by just 14 yards against Virginia despite losing by 14 points. The offense has been pretty poor and a lot of that can be attributed to the loss of starting quarterback Thomas Sirk before the season got underway. This is a big game for North Carolina as well as the Tar Heels as they remain in a tie with Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal following their third straight win last week. They have only two losses this season and while the season opening defeat against Georgia is a head-scratcher, the loss to the Hokies took place in a hurricane where they could get nothing going on offense. Duke has covered its last four games but it has been done by smoke and mirrors as mentioned and this is a tough spot against a superior team that has just as much motivation and momentum is on the side of North Carolina which is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (111) North Carolina Tar Heels

Toledo bounced back from a bad loss against Ohio with a blowout win at Akron last week to remain on pace to win the MAC West. The Rockets are 7-2 on the season and are one of only five teams in the country that has outgained every opponent. Like Western Michigan, Toledo controls its own destiny as if the Rockets win out, they make it to the MAC Championship but that would take a win over Western Michigan in just over two weeks. This is a very balanced team and one that is out for some serous revenge in what is not a true road game as this game is being played at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, home of the White Sox. Facing the Huskies away from their home stadium brings a bit of a new element to what has developed into a bit of a rivalry. Northern Illinois dropped its first four games but has recovered to win three of its last five to stay in bowl contention. The Huskies dominated in their last two games but those were against Buffalo and Bowling Green which are a combined 3-15 on the season. This team is having a non-predicted down year and will have trouble against the Rockets. Last year, Toledo lost to Northern Illinois 32-27 at the Glass Bowl, helping to ruin the Rockets hopes of making it to the MAC Championship game. That was the sixth straight loss in this series for the Rockets so they will not let up here. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points while the Huskies are 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (105) Toledo Rockets

Typically, we stay away from laying large points on the road but we will make the exception here as Western Michigan should be able to name the score here. The Broncos are 9-0 and have been simply destroying the competition, outscoring opponents by close to 26 ppg. Blindly betting Western Michigan would have paid off a lot this season with its 7-2 ATS mark but that is not the reason for this play as the matchup dictates it. Once the Broncos get the lead, which they should do without issue, Kent St. does not have a prayer to come back. The Golden Flashes have a pitiful offense as they are ranked No. 128 in total offense and No. 125 in passing offense so the chances of coming back are near impossible. They did score 27 points in their last game against Central Michigan but they took advantage of four turnovers by the Chippewas. Kent St. does possess a pretty solid defense but no one has been able to slow down Western Michigan and making matters worse, the Golden Flashes will be without their best defensive player as Nate Holley has been suspended from the team as he is facing kidnapping charges. He leads the team in tackles and in second in the country in that category so it is a huge loss. The Golden Flashes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (103) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Oakland is 6-2 for the first time since 2001, going 5-0 on the road to begin a season for the first time since 1977. The Raiders absolutely dominated Tampa Bay last week despite needing overtime to win as they outgained the Buccaneers by 356 yards but of course that does not take into consideration the 200 penalty yards on 23 penalties. That skewed amount has closed the gap in yardage differential and this was the first game that Oakland has actually won the yardage battle. Denver has bounced back from a pair of losses with a pair of victories at home the last two weeks. The offense has looked much better following a small lull and should be productive again facing the No. 31 defense in the NFL. On the other side, the Broncos lead the league in pass defense, almost 7 yards better than the next team and have frustrated every quarterback they have faced. It is important to note that the Raiders wins have all been against teams with non-winning records. Denver should be playing with a chip on its shoulder as one of its two home losses from last season came against the Raiders. The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and as good as the Raiders have been on the road, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (471) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Carolina opened the season 1-1 but then went on to lose its next four games to fall into last place in the NFC South. The Panthers then hit their bye week which could not have come at a better time and they then went out and defeated Arizona last week. We played on Carolina in that game but that was mostly based on the fact the Cardinals were coming off an overtime game where five full quarters were played and then had to head east for an early start. Now it is the Panthers that have to deal with a lengthy travel assignment against a team coming off a bye week. The Rams played in London two weeks ago which resulted in a loss against the Giants, their third straight defeat overall. Los Angeles surprisingly outgained all three of those opponents however so it has been competitive. Turnovers have been the issue as to why the Rams have avoided the win column during this stretch. If the Rams offensive line can give quarterback Case Keenum enough protection, then he should have no problem finding an open receiver against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Rams are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Panthers have failed to cover their last seven road games. 10* (466) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFC North Game of the Year. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but the dreaded momentum killing bye week came and they have gone on to lose their last two games against the Eagles and Bears. Those games were on the road however and a return home will help them tremendously. In a surprising move this week, offensive coordinator Norv Turner suddenly resigned and while some may think that will be big distraction, it will only help as the offense became stagnant the last two games, scoring just 10 points in each game. The Lions were riding a three-game winning streak going into last week but lost in Houston by a touchdown. Detroit is now 1-3 on the road and it heads to Minnesota at the wrong time. While the passing offense has been spot on, the Lions will be facing their biggest test as the Vikings have held six of seven opponents below their passer rating average and in five of those games, they have held quarterbacks at least 15 points below their passer rating average. The Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (454) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Browns are the lone winless team in the NFL at 0-8 but they have played a lot better than that record suggests. They have played five road games thus far while one of the home games came against the Patriots which was the first game back for Tom Brady. In the other two home games, Cleveland had a chance to win both but fell just short, losing those by a combined eight points. The Browns have outgained half of their opponents so they have been a very competitive 0-8 squad. Dallas lost its season opener against the Giants but has reeled off six straight wins after its overtime victory against Philadelphia last week. The Cowboys have covered all six of those games so it comes as no surprise that the public is all over them again as they are the third biggest consensus pick of the week. Coming off that victory over the Eagles and with a game at Pittsburgh on deck, this could signal a very flat spot for the Cowboys this week. A big boost to the Cleveland offense should be the return of wide receiver Corey Coleman who had 173 yards and two touchdowns in two games but broke his hand in practice the following week and has not played since. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

The news was good for Ohio St. on Tuesday when the College Football Playoff rankings were announced and it came in at No. 6. That comes on the heels of a pair of narrow wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern sandwiched around a loss at Penn St. The Buckeyes have now failed to cover four straight games after opening the season 4-0 ATS and the recent lack of dominating play is helping with this number. Nebraska suffered its first loss of the season last week at Wisconsin in overtime which likely dashed any sort of hope of making the playoff. That is a tough loss to recover from after coming back from a 17-7 fourth quarter deficit only to end up losing. While they started out 7-0, the Cornhuskers were not very dominant in doing so and it has come against a schedule ranked as the lowest of all Big Ten teams. This team could fight back hard and try and pick up the upset to move back up the standings but something says there will not be much fight especially against an Ohio St. team that is overdue for a domination. Nebraska is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 road games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg while Ohio St. is 48-25 ATS in its last 73 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. 10* (416) Ohio St. Buckeyes

The Ducks are having one of the most disappointing seasons around as they are 3-5 after coming into the season ranked in the AP Top 25. Oregon lost five straight games prior to getting back on track last week against Arizona St. in a 19-point romp that should not have been even that close. That momentum will carry forward here in what may be considered a must win game for bowl eligibility or else the duck will have to win their final three games of the season. USC has hit its stride as it has won four straight games and is starting to look like the team it was supposed to be like coming into the season. While the run is solid, the Trojans are being asked to lay a huge number against a team that despite its record, it still very solid. On top of that, they have a game at Washington next week so there is definitely the possibility of a lookahead to that one. Oregon falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that are averaging 400 or more total ypg, after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 78-36 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (393) Oregon Ducks

Here we have two teams separated by just a game and a half both overall and within the conference yet this line is telling us something totally different. Louisiana Tech is hot no doubt as it has won five straight games but only one of those came against a team above .500 and that was a three-point win over Western Kentucky at home. North Texas is coming off a loss at UTSA and that resulted in a win for us last week but we are backing the Mean Green now as they played better than the 14-point loss indicates. They outgained the roadrunners by 91 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference. Prior to that, they had won three of four games and thy have been home underdogs of 20 or more points only once since 2012 and that resulted in a cover last year against Western Kentucky. Louisiana Tech is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after a cover as a double digit favorite and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game while the Mean Green are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. 10* (390) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We played against SMU last week and were unfortunate as Tulane blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead. That was the second straight win for the Mustangs which are now 4-4 on the season, the most wins they have had in a season since 2013. It is also one more win than the last two seasons combined so something is going right in Dallas. They are still getting outgained on the season however and catch Memphis in a very bad mood. The Tigers have dropped two straight games to fall to 5-3 and even worse for Memphis backers, it has failed to cover five straight games. The three losses have come against solid teams, Navy and Tulsa of the AAC and while Mississippi is having a down year, it is still from the SEC and that was a rivalry revenge game on top of it. We have a phenomenal situation on our side as well as we play against home teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving teams averaging between 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, in conference games. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Memphis is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an upset loss as a favorite. 10* (403) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our ACC Game of the Year. After a solid 4-0 start to the season, Miami has now lost four straight games and high aspirations have turned into just trying to save the season. Typically, this would be a spot to play on the Hurricanes however this teams looks as though it has shut it down and last week did not help. Notre Dame jumped out to a 20-0 lead but Miami fought back to take a 27-20 lead but could not hold on and that is a tough one to recover from. Pittsburgh had won three straight before losing against Virginia Tech last week and at 5-3, the Panthers could be in even better position. The three losses have come by a combined 11 points and all of those have come down to the final minute. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 34 or more ppg while the Panthers are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up loss. 10* (361) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Saturday Enforcer. Both Air Force and Army are one win away from bowl eligibility so this is a big game for both sides. Army comes in with a 5-3 record and honestly it could be 8-0 right now. The Black Knights lost to Duke by seven points as they were killed by three turnovers, lost to Buffalo in overtime despite outgaining the Bulls by 179 total yards and lost to North Texas as they committed a school record seven turnovers. Army has outgained all eight opponents and all five wins have come by more than a touchdown. The Falcons are also 5-3 but they have not been quite as dominant as they are outscoring opponents by just 7.5 ppg compared to 15 ppg for Army. Air Force has failed to cover four straight games and while that is a streak we like to go against, the Falcons are in a tough spot flying to the east coast and might be doing it without starting quarterback Nate Romine who was injured last game against Fresno St. Air Force is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games against teams averaging 5.25 rushing ypc and 7-16 ATS in its last 23 road games teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (330) Army Black Knights

We will be laying points on the road in this one as we are catching a short number based on recent results and contrarian factors. Central Michigan started the season 3-0 but has gone 2-4 since then but the schedule has played a pretty big role in that. The Chippewas are 1-5 ATS over their last six games and the one win took overtime to cover so going against the streak is part of the contrarian value. On the flip side, after a 0-6 start, Miami Ohio has reeled off three straight wins after a 0-6 start but all three wins have come against teams with losing records. Miami is just 1-3 at home with the lone victory coming against Kent St. by only four points, the same team that Central Michigan lost to in its most recent defeat. Going back, the RedHawks are 5-18 in their last 23 home games and they cannot be trusted against a quality team that has struggled of late. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a winning percentage between .250 and .400 playing a team with a winning record, in conference games. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. 10* (317) Central Michigan Chippewas

Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played some high scoring games recently and because of that, we are getting a good total to work with this Thursday. The Falcons have gone over the total in their last three games as well as seven of their eight games on the season so their games have certainly been entertaining. Tampa Bay is not far behind as it has gone over in two straight games and is 4-3 to the over on the season. The Buccaneers do not possess the same type of offense that Atlanta does as they have scored seven points twice as well as 17 points in another game. The defense has struggled, as has the Falcons defense, which are definitely concerns but the second meeting in a season is usually as advantage for the defenses. In divisional games in general, the defenses have an edge as going back, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in divisional games. This situation is 80-46 (63.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Atlanta falls into a subset where the same situation applies and one of the teams has gone over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Atlanta Falcons/(308) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The season was looking bleak for Arkansas St. which opened 0-4 including three blowout losses capped off by an embarrassing loss against Central Arkansas of the FCS. The Red Wolves then had their bye week and it could not have come at the right time. Preseason contenders in the Sun Belt Conference, Arkansas St. has now won its last three games and sits just a half-game behind Troy and Appalachian St. for first place in the conference. Things have been bad for Georgia St. all season as it is just 2-6 including 1-3 in the SBC. The Panthers have had some close losses including a great effort in Wisconsin and because of the competitiveness, they have covered their last six games. That is keeping this line shorter than it should be (Arkansas St. was favored by 16.5 points at home last season). Georgia St. could be without starting quarterback Conner Manning who has missed the last two games with an arm injury. Arkansas St. has a solid situation on its side as we play against teams after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games going up against an opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (311) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

The Bears fell to 1-6 following their loss last Thursday night against the Packers as the offense managed just 189 total yards. Part of the problem was quarterback Brian Hoyer having to leave the game with the broken arm and Matt Barkley getting thrown into action in his first game since 2014. Chicago now gets Jay Cutler back after missing five games with a thumb injury so it is a big upgrade on offense. Chicago has actually outgained four of seven opponents this season so it has had some tough losses along the way. Minnesota is a big public favorite here despite a loss in Philadelphia last week. The Vikings have struggled on the road even though they are 2-1 as they were outgained by the Titans and Panthers in both of their road victories. Bears running back Jeremy Langford will return from a sprained ankle that has kept him out for the past four games and that is a big boost for Chicago as its running game has been pretty non-existent since he went down. While the Bears have struggled on offense, Minnesota has not fared much better as it is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 ypg, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 ypg game. Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

Green Bay snapped out of its offensive funk as it put up 406 total yards in its win against the Bears last Thursday. Now the Packers hit the road for the first time since September 18 as they played four straight home games with a bye put in there as well. That should not be an issue here because of the extra layoff from Thursday to the following Sunday. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had struggled through most of the first five games, turned to a quick-hitting passing game to complete a team-record 39 passes. The Falcons are coming off a pair of losses, one in Seattle and the other last week at home against the Chargers. After a 4-1 start, it is beginning to look a lot like last season when the Falcons started 5-0 and closed by winning just three of their last 11 games. They fall into a tough situation where we play against home teams after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Green Bay is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a divisional game while the Falcons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers

This is a quick turnaround for the Broncos to get some revenge von San Diego after they suffered their second loss in San Diego on October 13. We are not playing that angle however as Denver is not playing great right now as even a 27-9 win was not as good as the score shows as they outgained the Texans by just 76 total yards. While the defense is one of the best in the league, the offense is a mess as they are ranked No. 27 in total offense and No. 28 in passing offense. The running game is the strength but that took a huge hit with C.J. Anderson likely out for the season. The Chargers won in overtime at Atlanta last week to improve to 3-4 but that is a very skewed record. If bad breaks had gone their way, they could have at least two more wins as three of those losses have come by eight points combined while the other loss came in overtime opening week at Kansas City. Denver had won five straight meetings prior to the last one and these are more equal than people think making this spread way too high. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, San Diego is 9-1 in its last 10 road games while under head coach Mike McCoy, the Chargers are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog between 3.7 and 7 points. 10* (267) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our October Game of the Month. After a 1-3 start to the season, Detroit has reeled off three straight wins to remain in the hunt in the NFC North. The issue is twofold however as all three of those victories took place at home and in all three instances, the Lions were outgained by their opponents. The total combined victory margin was just seven points so while winning close games is huge, Detroit could be sitting at 1-6. We played against Houston Monday as it lost to Denver by 18 points to fall to 4-3 on the season. The next day, all of the talk was how bad of a deal the Texans made with Brock Osweiler and while he has been struggling, the schedule has been brutal. Three games against Denver, Minnesota and New England is bad enough but when they are all on the road, it makes it nearly impossible. Houston is 4-0 at home and has won eight of its last nine regular season home games, the lone defeat coming last year against the Patriots. We have a great situation on our side as well as we play against road teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off an upset win as a home underdog while Houston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite. 10* (256) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great setup for Carolina whose season is pretty much on the line. The Panthers are 1-5 and need to start some sort of run to make it back into the playoffs. They are coming off their bye week which could not have come at a better time with the way they have been playing as well as to rest some injuries issues. They catch Arizona coming off a tie at home last Sunday night against Seattle and now laying an early game on the east coast, which was originally scheduled for Sunday night is not ideal for the Cardinals. Arizona is struggling this season as well despite a favorable schedule with five of its first seven games taking place at home. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. Also, Carolina is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while Arizona is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (270) Carolina Panthers