Sports Picks & Predictions

While there are teams this season that have not played many elite opponents, their overall body of work makes up for that in some cases but that is not the case for Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not lost this season but they have a very east schedule as they avoided all of the big teams in the big Ten and while the fault is not on them but on the schedulemakers, there is not much to like. We played against Iowa last week and while it covered against Nebraska, it was outgained by 183 total yards which came after getting outgained by 2-10 Purdue. Michigan St. destroyed Penn St. last week as Conner Cook was back in the lineup behind center and had a great game. The Spartans are one bad call away from being undefeated and while that can be countered with their fortunate win over Michigan, the win over Ohio St. shows that this team is on another level. This is where they step up as the Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while Michigan St. is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 10* (331) Michigan St. Spartans

One of the great college football coaches will be on the sidelines for his final regular season game as Bill Snyder concludes a historic career where he turned the Kansas St. program around not once but twice. While this season has been pretty average, the Wildcats have the opportunity to send their coach to one more bowl game as a win over Kansas last week has kept the postseason alive. West Virginia has had a very streaky season as it went undefeated in September, winless in October and undefeated in November. The schedule had a lot to do with it and the current four-game winning streak is unimpressive in my opinion as three of those wins came at home while the lone road win was at 0-12 Kansas. There really is no reason the Mountaineers should be a road favorite here. Kansas St is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while going 6-1 ATS as a home underdog over that stretch. 10* (314) Kansas St. Wildcats

Alabama is rolling right now with nine straight wins with eight of those coming by double-digits but it is hard to trust a team laying this many points in a conference championship game. The Crimson Tide have covered four straight games but they have gone just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown against trams playing with revenge. That role is with Florida which was blasted last season at Alabama by 21 points while getting outgained by 472 yards. We lost with Florida last week against Florida St. and while the final deficit was by 25 points, the Gators were outgained by just 42 total yards. The offense has struggles of late which is a big reason for this massive line but Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. While mentioned that Alabama has covered four straight games, it needs to be noted that under head coach Nick Saban, it is 0-7 ATS away from home after four or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (325) Florida Gators

Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons

It has been a pretty tough month for the Packers which went from an undefeated record at 6-0 and a lead in the NFC North to a 7-4 record and now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the conference. The division is still within grasp but laying points on the road with the way it is playing is tough to do but we do expect the offense to do much better than what took place in the first meeting three weeks ago. Green Bay managed just 16 points but did put up 372 yards in the defeat which was similar to last week against the Bears where they put up 365 yards and scored only 13 points. While the Lions defense has been great the last three weeks, this is still a very inconsistent unit. On the other side, under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions are closer to a balanced offense. They ran the ball 29.4 percent of the time in the first seven games but with a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Lions are still playing the preferred up-tempo style that suits quarterback Matt Stafford best. They broke out for 45 points last Thursday as Stafford was as sharp as he has been all season, and he will get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday. Green Bay falls into a solid totals situation as we play the over involving road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* Over (301) Green Bay Packers/(302) Detroit Lions

We have seen some duds on Monday night of late with little offensive action but that should change tonight as we have two teams out of playoff contention facing off. Baltimore is coming off a 2-11 homestand but suffered another pair of tough injuries as quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett were both lost for the season and while that could hurt the offense, the opposing defense won't show much resistance. Cleveland meanwhile has lost five straight games and while the offense did little to help, getting Josh McCown back behind center will help immensely as Johnny Manziel was garbage. Now back to the defenses as these are two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as Baltimore is allowing 24.9 ppg and Cleveland is allowing 27.7 ppg, 23rd and 30th respectively in the NFL. Cleveland falls into a very high scoring situation as we play the over involving home teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the Browns four home games this season while the over is 5-0 in the Ravens last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (275) Baltimore Ravens/(276) Cleveland Browns

While it was far from dominating, the Broncos showed they can win without Peyton Manning as Brock Osweiler was very impressive in his first career start. He was 20-27 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he will face a much tougher defense this week, the fact he got that first start out of the way can be considered bigger. The Denver defense is the reason it is 8-2 as Manning has been a shell of his former self and that defense has a chance to keep the Patriots grounded as they continue to deal with a load of injuries. Give New England credit for doing what it is doing with a huge injury list but this will be a big road test for sure. The schedule has been very favorable of late for the Patriots as four of their last five games have been at home and the lone road game could have and arguably should have resulted in a loss to the Giants. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Denver is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Look for the Broncos to put an end to the Patriots undefeated season. 10* (274) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NY GIANTS for our NFL Game of the Week. With what took place over Thanksgiving, this has turned into a monumental game for the Giants. Philadelphia got crushed again while Dallas lost Tony Romo for the rest of the season so a victory here puts them two games clear of the Eagles and Redskins and it becomes their division to lose. New York is the clear cut favorite right now and having a two-game lead with five games left, including only one divisional game, would be huge. Washington got blown out for the third time in five games last week and while it returns home with a 4-1 record, this is not the worst time to face the Giants to try and break their five-game skid against them. The Redskins have gone 2-4 in their last six games and the numbers have been worse as they have been outgained by at least 124 yards in five of those. The Giants fall into a great spot where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Giants are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Redskins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 14 points. 10* (259) New York Giants

This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings had a great run going where they had won five straight games but then ran into a buzzsaw last Sunday at home against the Packers. The defense allowed its highest point total of the season and things won't get any easier here against a desperate Falcons team. Minnesota has won three straight games on the road but none of those were against teams with a winning record. After opening the season 5-0, the Flacons have dropped four of their last five games including three straight to fall out of the NFC South Division race. Despite those four losses in five games, Atlanta has outgained the opponent in four of those games with the lone negative differential being just -16 yards. The Falcons have lost their last two home games but both were by just three points against two .500 teams. Despite being just a game worse than Minnesota, this line is much shorter than it should be as the Falcons are not getting much credit for home field. A big reason is the recent successful Minnesota ATS run while Atlanta has failed to cover in six straight games. A win here likely means a cover and we will grab the Falcons in what is definitely considered a must win to remain in the playoff hunt. 10* (254) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on BUFFALO for ur Sunday ultimate Underdog. The Bills lost a tough game against New England Monday night as they were outgained by just 37 total yards and actually held New England to season lows in both yards and points. At 5-5, Buffalo is tied with three other teams for the second AFC Wild Card spot and while a loss would not knock them too far out, a win would be huge. And we aren't even asking the Bills to win, although an outright win would not be surprising, as they are catching a number that is inflated because of the Chiefs recent run. Kansas City is one of those 5-5 teams and the reason the line is so big is due to their four-game winning streak, all coming by at least 10 points. In their most recent home game, they were favored by a field goal over the 4-7 Lions and are now at least double that now against a much better team. The defense has risen to the occasion but Buffalo has a big play offense that was shut down last week as quarterback Tyrod Taylor was far from 100 percent. He is fine now though and going back, the Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. They also fall into a simple yet effective situation where we play on road teams off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (263) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. Bedlam has some pretty high stakes this season. Oklahoma can lock up a trip to the College Football Playoff with a win while Oklahoma St. can jump back into the mix, albeit a very small probability of making it through. If nothing else, the Cowboys want to destroy the Sooners chances of going to the final four and they will certainly want to make up for last week's poor effort against Baylor as they had control of their own destiny. Last week, Trevor Knight filled in for Baker Mayfield and he completed only 5 of his 16 passes, for a paltry 76 yards. The Sooners could be in major trouble if Knight gets dinged again. Oklahoma St. is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and the last time these teams played here and both ranked in the top ten, the Cowboys won in blowout fashion 44-10. 10* (214) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on FLORIDA for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Gamblers have very short memories and this is a case in point. The Gators opened as favorites and we have now seen a line shift of 5.5 points. This is partly due the fact they almost lost last week to Florida Atlantic but it's pretty clear they had their eyes set on this game leading up to the SEC Championship. Looking at the big picture, Florida has lost only once this season and while it was a game it never should have lost, going down at LSU is not too difficult to do. Florida St. has won two in a row although last week's win came against Chattanooga. The Seminoles are 2-2 on the road and while one loss came at Clemson, losing at Georgia Tech was uncalled for and in the tow wins, they were outgained by Wake Forest and outgained Boston College by just 22 yards. The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 10* (188) Florida Gators

This is a play on TEMPLE for our Blowout Game of the Month. It has been quite a season for Temple and it can cap the regular season off in style. If Temple wins Saturday, the Owls win the American Athlete Conference East Division and earn a spot in inaugural AAC championship game against either Navy or Houston. They held Memphis to four field goals last week to get into this position. Connecticut has been solid down the stretch as the Huskies have won three straight and this past weekend they earned their most impressive victory of the campaign, beating previously undefeated Houston, 20-17. They are bowl eligible now and sets up a great letdown possibility. Temple falls into two great situations. First, we play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 31-4 ATS (88.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points coming off an extremely close win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Temple Owls

This is a play on NC STATE for our Saturday Enforcer. There is a lot on the line for North Carolina in the eyes of many but in reality, there isn't. The Tar Heels already have their ticket into the ACC Championship next week against Clemson and even though this is a rivalry, peeking ahead to the Tigers is a distinct possibility. North Carolina has reeled off 10 straight wins but against who? This is why they are nowhere near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. NC State can get to eight wins for a second consecutive season and the Wolfpack have to feel disrespected here getting points at home for the fourth straight meeting at home but this is the best team they have had over that stretch. Additionally, this is the highest North Carolina has been favored by on the road and last week, it was -3.5 against a 5-6 Virginia Tech team which shows the value here. 10* (182) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on IOWA ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. While we would typically fade teams that aren't playing to get into a bowl game or with not much to play for, that is not the case today. As reported last Sunday, Iowa St. fired head coach Paul Rhodes after seven seasons but he has been given the chance to coach the final game of the season and being a big time players coach, they will be out to win his final game here. Of the Cyclones eight losses, three have been by four points or less or in overtime and other three losses came against teams either undefeated or with one loss. West Virginia has won three straight games after a four-game losing streak, after a three-game winning streak. This is the final home game for the Mountaineers but they will get everything Iowa St. has thrown at them Saturday. Here, we play against home favorites averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (157) Iowa St. Cyclones

Massachusetts is guaranteed to win three games or less for a fourth consecutive season as it lost its home finale last week Miami-Ohio as a favorite to fall to 2-9. The Minutemen did win their last road game but that came against Eastern Michigan, one of the worst teams in college football. Going back, Massachusetts is 3-21 in its 24 road games since 2012 and if it hasn't been bad enough, it is one of only seven teams in the country that has played 12 games without a bye week. Buffalo was looking good toward getting a bowl berth but has lost two straight games which makes this is must win situation. All six losses this season have come against teams that are already bowl eligible so the Bulls have won the games they needed to win and this is definitely one of those. Buffalo has qualified for only two bowl games in the programs history and will be out to get back after missing out last season. The Minutemen are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record while the Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (122) Buffalo Bulls

We played on Boise St. last Friday as we figured the Broncos would bounce back from a rare home loss but instead, they lost two home games in a season for the first time since 1998. Now with the Broncos out of the MWC East Division race, they hit the road in a bad state of mind but they are still heavy favorites simply because it is Boise St. While there is little to play for now for the Broncos, San Jose St. has a lot to play for. The Spartans need a win here to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2012 when it went 11-2. There will be some extra incentive as back in 2013, the Spartans also finished 6-6 but were snubbed for a bowl game. The situation is pretty similar as the Spartans needed a win in their final game to get to six wins and they did it with a victory over No. 16 Fresno St. They have lost twice at home, one against San Diego St. which is 7-0 in the MWC and the other against BYU by just one point. Boise St. has dominated this series but this is the first meeting since 2010 so the run is meaningless here. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (142) San Jose St. Spartans

Now it is becoming very real for Iowa which moved to 11-0 following a win over Purdue last Saturday and it has moved up to No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. It was a confusing move considering the Hawkeyes were actually outgained in that game and have not defeated any team of real significance. Nebraska is far from significant but a few bounces its way and it could be. Five of the Huskers six losses have come by five points or less so they have been on the cusp of a great season. This line is telling us a lot as typically, a No. 3 team in the nation is usually favored by more than one point over a team with a losing record. Nebraska needs this game to become bowl eligible and falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 95-44 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Nebraska is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games teams averaging 34 or more ppg while the Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (118) Nebraska Cornhuskers

We won with the Packers this past Sunday against the Vikings and while it was not a thing of beauty, a win is a win and it was a much needed victory to stop the bleeding of a three-game losing streak. Now Green Bay will be out to avoid losing two straight games at home which has happened only once since 2009 and it needs to be pointed out that Aaron Rodgers did not play as he was injured. Rodgers has not lost two straight home games since 2008, his first year as the Packers starting quarterback. Chicago lost a tough game to the Broncos on a failed two-point conversion which snapped a two-game winning streak and now the Bears have to hit the road on short rest. Surprisingly, the defense has played at a high level of late, allowing 19, 13 and 17 points the last three weeks but now comes the biggest test of the bunch. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after having won two out of their last three games while Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road win. While this is considered a big rivalry, the Packers have won 12 of the lat 14 meetings and they keep it rolling here with another big victory. 10* (110) Green Bay Packers

While this is a big game for Texas if it wants to retain any sort of hope for the postseason, I think this is just as big of a game for Texas Tech even though it is already bowl eligible. It has been a nightmare of a season for Texas which has a quality win over Oklahoma but the other three wins are against teams a combined 8-24. The loss by the Sooners is certainly perplexing but anything can happen in a rivalry game and we can make that argument here. Texas has owned this series with a 30-5 record at home against the Red Raiders and Texas has not lost here since 1997, a span of eight straight wins. Of course, those Texas teams were a lot stronger than this current edition and Texas Tech knows it can take advantage and get some long awaited revenge. Winning this also knocks a potential bowl game away from Texas and Texas Tech would love to hand that to the Longhorns. The Red Raiders defense is horrid but they have struggled against the best offenses in the conference as they allowed 55, 63, 63 and 70 points to TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In all other FBS games, they have allowed 28.3 ppg and Texas isn't even averaging that many points. On the other side, Texas Tech will have no issues with a very weak Texas defense as the Red Raiders are ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 3 in total offense. They also fall into a solid rushing situation where we play on road underdogs that are allowing 5.25 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Texas Tech Red Raiders

After just a couple series, you could see the difference with Tony Romo in at quarterback with the Cowboys and they are far from out of it in the NFC East. He finished with two interceptions and had an average 83.7 quarterback rating but it was his first game after missing seven games and it is obvious he gives the Cowboys a chance to win every week. Speaking of winning every week, that is what Carolina has done all season. Winning is most important but it is hard to ignore the fact that the Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL. Four of their last five games have been at home with the lone road game coming at lowly Tennessee. There is a very interesting comparison between these two teams as the Panthers have not lost a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2014 NFL Season, a span of 14 straight games. Just like the Cowboys, they had gone winless in the seven previous games before starting their streak. Dallas has won seven straight regular season games with Romo under center and going back to the start of last season, the Cowboys are 15-3 in their last 18 regular season game when Romo starts. The Panthers are just the second team in NFL history to start 10-0 and open its next game as an underdog and that is a big reason Carolina is already getting over three-quarters of the action early in the week. Going back, Dallas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after having lost three out of their last four games. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys

The Lions have won two straight games and bring some momentum in Thanksgiving Day. While their season is long gone, it is pretty clear they are out to win still and while the offense has been below average the last four games, they catch the Eagles at the perfect time. Or in my opinion, the wrong time. Philadelphia is in real trouble following a bad home loss to the Buccaneers, its second straight loss, but the NFC East is still wide open and there is time for the Eagles to recover. While Mark Sanchez had an up and down game, Matt Stafford has been average pretty much all season. Here are some surprising numbers. Both entered Sunday with 37 wins, but Sanchez had an 86.6 passer rating compared with Stafford's 83.7 rating. Stafford is in 0-2 in the playoffs and Sanchez is 4-2, including two trips to the AFC championship. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, there have been some bad breaks along the way for the Eagles and after an embarrassing loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last decade, that is the time players step up. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 gamers after allowing 40 or more points while the Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following two or more consecutive wins. 10* (105) Philadelphia Eagles

It was an unfortunate situation for Ohio in mid-October when injuries really hit the team hard after a 5-1 start and the Bobcats lost three straight games to essentially fall out of the MAC East race. The real Ohio team has been on display the last two weeks, granted against much weaker opposition, but this team is much better than what this line is telling us here. Northern Illinois needs the win to go to its sixth straight MAC Championship but winning by more than two touchdowns may be too much to ask for against the surging Bobcats. Ohio combined for over 600 rushing yards in the Bowling Green and Kent St. game and then put together a 607-yard game against Ball St. The Huskies are rolling with six straight wins and have not lost against the number over that stretch which is a big reason this number is as big as it is. Northern Illinois has been a double-digit favorite three times within the conference but the best of those teams was Ball St. at 3-8 and the Huskies are actually favored by more against Ohio. This is not considered a big rivalry but it has played like one over the last few years as this is always a closely contested game. This includes a win by Northern Illinois last year in Athens and the interesting part is that the Huskies were favored by one point there. That makes this a minimum 12-point swing from then and that is too big of a gap as these teams are actually closer to each other this year than last year. 10* (103) Ohio Bobcats

The Bills picked up a much needed win last Thursday over the Jets to get back over .500 for the first time since Week Five but most are not giving them a chance to stay there very long. New England is 9-0 and continues to seemingly run on cruise control although they were given a gift last week against the Giants. Injuries continue to be a problem though and they keep getting worse as the Patriots are without Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. These are huge blows offensively and we can look back at the first meeting and what their absences mean. Lewis (138) and Edelman (109) accounted for 247 of New England's 507 total yards (48.7 percent) and scored three touchdowns. The Bills are healthy on offense and can keep up in this one against a New England defense that has looked good at times but it very average. The Bills rank sixth in the NFL, averaging 25.7 ppg which is on pace to be their highest season total since 1991 (28.6 ppg). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven of his games this season and he is the only quarterback completing better than 70 percent of his throws. LeSean McCoy is at full strength and on the season, Buffalo is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per rush, which is second in the NFL behind the Steelers (3.2). Buffalo has two awesome situations on its side. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on ARIZONA for our Sunday night Primetime. Trying to figure out which Bengals team is true, the one that went 8-0 or the one we saw last week, is a difficult task. I think they are a little in-between as they certainly are not as bad as they were last week but they are not as good as their first eight-game record indicated. Now things get extremely tough as Cincinnati head to Arizona to face one of the best teams in the league. They have played only two teams that currently possess a winning record and this is the best one yet. Arizona is 7-2 and last week was a great indication of the makeup of this team. The Cardinals blew a 19-0 lead and while most teams would have folded, Arizona fought harder and came away with the win. They have outgained seven of nine opponents, including both losses as turnovers did them in, and overall they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in the NFL. This is just the second home game in six weeks so this place will be going nuts come Sunday night. Here, we play on home teams coming off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages at .750 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on GREEN BAY for our Sunday Enforcer. After another loss, people are starting to give up on the Packers but this week it could be do or die. Green Bay dropped its third straight game with a home loss against the Lions despite winning the yardage battle by 85 yards. Now the Packers hit the road again to face one of the hottest teams in the league but it is a series they have owned. Aaron Rodgers has looked lost the last three games and while teams change, the Vikings are one of his favorite opponents to face. Minnesota has won five straight games to move to 7-2 overall and into first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered an amazing eight straight games and they are doing it by not even being dominant. They have been outgained in five of their nine games and with the exception of a domination in Detroit, the other three plus yardage variances were just 27, 22 and 14 yards. Here, we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 divisional games and 23-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough start for the Chargers as they are 2-7 overall following a current five-game losing streak. They are so much better than the record shows however as they have been close to winning all but one of their losses and they have been outgained only twice in nine games overall. San Diego has lost three straight games at home after opening 2-0 and it is in a great spot to get back into the win column. Kansas City is coming off an upset win at Denver last week but clearly the Broncos were not the same Broncos. The Chiefs have now won and covered three straight games and just like that, they are now being placed as road favorites. This is based on records and nothing else. The Chiefs are getting outgained overall on the season by a couple yards while San Diego is +41.8 in yardage differential. Kansas City falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (474) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on DALLAS for our NFL Game of the Week. The losing streak has reached seven games for the Cowboys after falling to Tampa Bay 10-6 last week. It shows what the lack of a quality quarterback can do but at the same time, Dallas was in all but one of those games so a couple breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. Tony Romo is back this week which is a big spark for the offense and it comes at the right time as they can not afford many more losses. Miami pulled off the upset at Philadelphia last week despite getting outgained by 147 total yards. That was the end of a three-game roadtrip and the schedule this season has been tough so far with just two true home games prior to this week. The home field advantage down here is not great however. At 4-5, Miami is still hanging around for a playoff spot but the upcoming schedule is brutal. Dallas has Carolina on deck Thanksgiving which makes this game even more important for the Cowboys which fall into a great situation. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following a win by three points or less. 10* (455) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the NY JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets opened the season 4-1 but have dropped three of their last four games including a tough loss against former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills last Thursday. This is still a very solid team and this is a perfect opportunity for the defense to get back no track after a few rough games. At 5-4, they are right in the thick of the playoff picture but this is a game they cannot lose as the rest of the schedule is extremely difficult. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center after thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand. Houston upset the Bengals this past Monday and now has to play on short rest against a team on extended rest. The Texans are tied with the Colts for first place in the AFC South so this is obviously a big game as well but having T.J. Yates is certainly not ideal. The defense has flexed its muscles the last two weeks but that changes here. The Jets have a solid situation on their side as we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (461) New York Jets

This is a play on SMU for our NCAA Game of the Year. SMU will be the play here and while backing a 1-9 team doesn't seem feasible, the situation could not be any better. It has been a tough season for the Mustangs but we knew that was going to be the case but this is their final game on the season and it takes place in primetime on an ESPN channel. SMU has lost only one game to an FBS team with a losing record and that to a decent East Carolina team that was playing its best football of the season at the time. Since then, the Mustangs have played five straight games against teams .500 or better not to mention earlier games against Baylor and TCU. Overall, they have played the 41st ranked schedule and while there was a loss against FCS James Madison, the Dukes are ranked in the top ten in the latest FCS coaches poll. Tulane is not much better and I don't think it is any better at all. The Green Wave are coming off a win over Army last week to snap a five-game losing streak and it was quite the celebration afterward. It was their first road win of the season and they have only won 12 road games since 2005, none of which have come consecutively. SMU has been favored only once against an FBS team and that resulted in a blowout win over North Texas. The Mustangs fall into a great situation as we play on home teams in the seconds half of the season in a game involving two teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 51-18 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. Tulane is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games coming off a win as a road underdog including 0-8 ATS off a win by three points or less. Additionally, we are getting value with the number because of the win last week and the fact it has covered four straight while has failed to cover four in a row. 10* (388) SMU Mustangs

After a 4-3 start, Rice has lost three straight games but there is still room to become bowl eligible and the schedule sets up well for it to happen. After facing 2-8 Texas-San Antonio, the Owls square off against Charlotte to close the season so a 6-6 record is more than doable. The job head coach David Bailiff has done has been outstanding as this could be the fourth straight bowl game for Rice, something that has never happened in the history of the program. Rice struggles against potent passing attacks but that certainly is not the case of Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners are coming off a win over Charlotte but it came by just three points and it was the eighth time this season they have been outpassed. They were outgained overall and on the season, they have been outgained in all four home games where they are winless. Despite a horrible season, this is the third straight game that Texas-San Antonio has been the favorite which is surprising. Rice is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record while going 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (395) Rice Owls

This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our Saturday Enforcer. Pittsburgh snapped a two-game slide with a road victory over Duke to remain in the hunt in the ACC Coastal Division as it trails the Tar Heels by a game. Because of the loss to North Carolina, the Panthers have to finish a game better but with their final two games taking place at home and North Carolina playing its final two games on the road, this is the setup they need. The three losses this season have come against teams a combined 28-2, two of which were by one possession, so the 7-3 is actually better than it looks. Louisville has won four straight games but each of those four game have come against teams currently at 3-7 and the Cardinals own just one victory against a team with a winning record. Three of those four games were at home while the lone road win was at Wake Forest by just one point. While Pittsburgh has yet to cover a game at home this season, it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games coming off a double-digit conference victory while the Cardinals are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (320) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. The Big Ten season really gets going Saturday as Michigan St. heads to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes with the winner taking over first place in the East Division. Ohio St. has not lost a game since Game Two of last season and while unblemished this year, it really hasn't been tested with the exception of a game against Penn St. The Buckeyes continue to be overvalued as proven by their 3-7 record against the spread yet they come in pretty big favorites against a team just one back behind them. Michigan St. feasibly should be undefeated this season but it got a bad deal in the loss against Nebraska two games back. The Spartans bounced back with a win and cover last week even though they were outgained by the Terrapins and after starting the season 0-6 ATS, they have covered three of their last four games. They fall into a situation where we play on road underdogs after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (371) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a game where the wrong team is favored in my opinion but the reason is that Duke is riding a three-game losing streak, both straight up and against the number. The last two have been blowouts and all three came against winning teams and Virginia does not fall into that category. The Blue Devils have their six wins for bowl eligibility but two more wins (Wake Forest next week) would boost the chance of a better bowl. The Cavaliers are 3-7 with one win over William & Mary of the FCS by just six points and the other victories coming against teams both of which are 3-7. The loss against Louisville last week killed any chance of a postseason berth for Virginia so expect a sleepwalking effort here. The Cavaliers have covered four straight games but they were dogs in all of those and they are 0-3 ATS this season as favorites. Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less last games. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (351) Duke Blue Devils

We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We are seeing both sides here as Georgia Tech is coming off a loss last Thursday, its seventh loss in its last eight games, to eliminate it from bowl contention and snapping its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games. As rocky of a season Miami has had, it is bowl eligible for a third straight season as it is 6-4. The four losses have all been against teams with a winning record, three of which have come against teams a combined 27-3. The Hurricanes are 4-1 at home with this being their final home game of the season. Georgia Tech will be very disinterested here after especially with rival Georgia on deck next week, a game they will treat as their bowl game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-7 ATS after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. 10* (366) Miami Hurricanes

Boise St. is coming off a shocking loss at home against New Mexico last weekend, just the fifth time since 2000 that the Broncos have lost at home. They no longer control their own destiny to win the MWC East Division but they are not out of it yet. The loss last week was not only shocking because of the Broncos huge home field edge but because of the way it happened. Boise St. outgained the Lobos by 225 total yards, had a 40-11 first down advantage and held New Mexico to 0-10 on third down. They hurt themselves by not getting the job done in the redzone so we will see a more efficient effort here. Air Force has won four straight games following a home upset over Utah St. which registered its 12th straight win at home. The road is an issue as the Falcons are 1-3 with the lone victory coming at 2-9 Hawaii and they have not defeated a winning team on the road since 2011. Their run, along with the skewed Boise St. loss is keeping this number down much lower than it should be. The Broncos have been outgained only twice this season and by a combined 21 total yards so they have been extremely dominant and we will see that domination here. Boise St. is 32-11 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover two of its last three games while going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Air Force is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. 10* (318) Boise St. Broncos

The under is 4-0-1 the last five Thursday night NFL games and while past outcomes do not predict future results, I think we are due for a shootout here. Neither Tennessee nor Jacksonville are known for their potent offenses but both are capable especially going up against these opposing defenses. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has not put up eye-popping numbers but he has a quarterback rating of 98.3 which is good for ninth best in the NFL and he is clearly getting more comfortable. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in opposing quarterback rating at 99.7 and the Jaguars have given up their fair share of points as they have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season and have given up an average of 28.3 ppg. On the other side, Blake Bortles has not been nearly as efficient but he too has improved as the season has gone on. While the Titans defense is solid in yards allowed, they are allowing a passer rating of 95.1 to the opposition, which is 22nd in the NFL. Both possess pretty poor rushing offenses so we should see a lot of passing Thursday night. Overall, the teams are a combined 11-7 to the over and we are getting a very reasonable number here. The over is 13-6 in the Titans last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 6-2 in the Jaguars last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (309) Tennessee Titans/(310) Jacksonville Jaguars

Many predicted a dropoff from East Carolina this season following a 26-13 three-year run and we are definitely seeing that. The Pirates lost quarterback Shane Carden, their top running back and their two top wide receivers so replacing that production was sure to be a challenge. Add to that, the defense lost six starters and that unit has dropped off as well. East Carolina has now dropped three straight games to fall to 4-6 and its decade-long bowl run is in jeopardy. Granted, winning this one seems like a layup facing a winless UCF Knights team but winning by more than two touchdowns does not seem possible against any opponent at this point. While it has been a dropoff for the Pirates, it has been even worse for UCF. Over the same three-year span, the Knights went 31-9 so they have already dropped more games this season than those three years combined. The most troubling part is that UCF came into the season as contenders in the AAC thanks to nine starters returning on offense. Only two of their last seven games have been at home and both came against teams .500 or better so the schedule hasn't done much to help. The Pirates have been favorites in their last three losses to fall to 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games in that role including going 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. ESPN did not anticipate the records of these teams when scheduling this game but it is what it is and UCF will treat this one as its bowl game. 10* (312) UCF Knights

As mentioned yesterday, we are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We backed Ohio which rolled to its seventh win of the season last night and seven wins is a minimum when it comes to gaining a bowl berth in this conference and Central Michigan finds itself in a predicament. The Chippewas lost to Toledo last week to fall to 5-5 so they have to win out to make any sort of claim for a postseason berth and they should be able to accomplish this with a light finish to the schedule. One reason for playing against Ball St. last night was because it registered its seventh loss in its previous game so motivation going forward was a question and we saw there was none. That should be the case with Kent St. tonight as the Golden Flashes lost their seventh game of the season last Tuesday at Ohio which makes it three straight years of not going to a bowl game. We do not have to worry about a backdoor cover here as Kent St. has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is averaging 283.7 ypg, third worst overall while its 4.12 yppl is in fact the lowest in the country. The Golden Flashes are the lowest scoring team in all of the FBS with 14.3 ppg and that drops to 7.8 ppg over their last five games. Kent St. is 4-19 ATS in its last 23 games after gaining 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game while the Chippewas are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. 10* (307) Central Michigan Chippewas

We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. That is the case in this game where we see Ohio at 6-4 after securing bowl eligibility last week with a win against Kent St. while Ball St. saw its postseason hopes shattered in an ugly 54-7 loss against Western Michigan. The Cardinals are 3-7 and will have little interest here on the road especially with their final game of the season taking place next week at home. The Bobcats have struggled on offense over the last four games but it has progressively gotten better which is a good sign and now facing Ball St., we should see another big jump. Ball St. is one of 10 teams in the country that are allowing more than 500 ypg as it is ranked 118th in that category, ahead of only Eastern Michigan of all MAC teams. The Cardinals have been outgained in each of their last seven games including being outyarded by a whopping 559 yards in their last game against the Broncos. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record while the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (304) Ohio Bobcats

Despite a losing record on the season, Houston is outgaining their opponents by an average of 18.5 ypg and even with all of the inconsistencies, the Texans are just a half -game of the Colts in the AFC South. Houston is coming off a win over Tennessee in its last game, two weeks ago. On Sunday, Carolina and New England were able to keep their perfect records alive and it will be up to Cincinnati to do the same tonight. A pair of bookend wins over Oakland and Cleveland saw domination on the stat sheet but the six games in-between had the Bengals just +28 total yards in the positive against opponents. Even more on our side is that fact that Cincinnati has yet to fail to cover a game and that is running this number up with the Monday night public going all-in on the home favorite. The Texans fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 ypc or less going up against teams allowing 4.5 ypc or more, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (275) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GIANTS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. The Patriots are rolling and their mission to go undefeated remains intact following a win over Washington last week. That was the last of three straight home games which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. Laying points on the road is one thing but laying this many points is absurd. Basically, with a three-point edge for home field, New England would be a 13-5-point favorite at home against the Giants, the same number they were laying against the Redskins last week and that simply does not jive. The Giants have been off and on this season as they are 5-4 following a road win over Tampa Bay last week, their second straight road game. They are finding ways to win as they have been outgained in eight of nine games which is usually a bad trend to have and they could easily be 7-2 right now if not for late losses against Dallas, Atlanta and New Orleans. Here, we play against road favorites that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 90-50 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. As mentioned, the Patriots are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (272) New York Giants

This is a play on the RAIDERS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders are arguably one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. The numbers are not overly great as they are getting outgained overall on the season but they are 4-4 with three of those losses coming by a combined 11 points so things could be better than their 4-4 record shows. Oakland has the playmakers that they have not had in recent years and quarterback Derek Carr is turning heads and is likely going to be a star in this league. There is absolutely no quit in this team and the coaching staff is finally one that looks to be the right fit. Minnesota is looking pretty solid as well at 6-2 and while it too can be put into that most improved group, we saw good things out of them last season when they finished the season 5-4. After losing the opener in San Francisco, the Vikings have only one loss which came by just three points at Denver and they have covered every game since. Coming off four straight wins, heading to the west coast and with a game against Green Bay on deck, they are not in a good spot here at all. Additionally, we play on favorites averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 295 and 335 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (268) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on TENNESSEE for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win last week over New Orleans and while that could normally spell letdown, that is not the case here. While they are just 2-6, the Titans trail the Colts by only a game and a half in the AFC South and with Andrew Luck on the shelf for at least a month, this division is up for grabs. Tennessee has outgained five of eight opponents and of their six losses, three have come by a combined six points. The Titans are back home after two straight road games and face off against the undefeated Panthers. Carolina defeated Green Bay last week as they dodged a late bullet and that was their third straight home game which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. While the Panthers have outgained six of eight opponents this season, the most they have outgained any one opponent is by just 51 yards so they have been hardly dominant. Tennessee falls into a fantastic situation a we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. As mentioned, the Panthers are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (256) Tennessee Titans

We lost with the Bears/Chargers over on Monday night but will come back with it here as the Bears head to St. Louis feeling pretty good about themselves. There was plenty of offense last week as Chicago gained 446 yards but unfortunately managed just 22 points. While they are facing a tougher defense this week, we are getting a much better number to work with which is partly due to the Bears going 5-1 to the under over their last six games. Speaking of unders, St. Louis has gone under the total in each of its last four games and six of its last seven so that is also playing into this total. Considering the last two games have come against two of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the total is just a couple points higher here, it shows the value involved. The Rams have allowed a total of 24 points in their last three home games but two of those came against offenses ranked 27th and 32nd while the other came against the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out. Chicago will be able to move the ball. On the other side, the Bears defense is 27th in points allowed and St. Louis has averaged a solid 22.8 ppg at home this season. Chicago is 9-1 to the over in it last 10 road games after one or more consecutive wins with the average points being 62.1 ppg while Str. Louis is 6-0 to the over in its last six after a loss by six or less points with the average point total being 53.5 ppg. 10* Over (257) Chicago Bears/(258) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As quickly as a team is one of the best in the NFL in the eyes of the public, they can turn on a dime and now the Packers are nowhere near the powerhouse they were just three weeks ago. I disagree with that and a return home is just what this team needs. Back-to-back road losses at Denver and Carolina are nothing to be ashamed of as they are a combined 15-1 so this is the perfect spot for a beatdown. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the business at home and coming off a loss so putting the two together spells disaster for the Lions. Detroit got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago to fall to 1-7 and while it is coming off a bye week, that won't matter here. The Lions season is done and there is already talk about Matthew Stafford leaving the team in the offseason. He has never defeated a team on the road with a winning percentage of .750 or better as he is 0-10 in this spot. We are also well aware of the Packers home dominance in this series and while we aren't using that as part of this play, it is still a very significant psychological factor. Here, we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Detroit is 0-12 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. 10* (252) Green Bay Packers

We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears

This is a play on BAYLOR for our Saturday Star Attraction. Baylor continues to get snubbed in the College Football Playoff as it was place No. 6 last week and did not move this week despite a solid win at Kansas St. And the Bears were leapfrogged by Iowa, which moved from No. 9 to No. 5 despite a poor win over Indiana. This is the chance for the Bears to prove their worth and the fact this game is a primetime nationally televised game will only help them. This is clearly the toughest opponent they have faced but Baylor owns a 22-game home winning streak and there have been some big wins along the way and this is ne of the best Bears teams over that span. Oklahoma is looking good still as it is ranked No. 12 with big games left so this is definitely a must win for the Sooners. The Sooners have dominated of late but have played no one and in two games away from home against teams with a pulse resulted in a loss to Texas and a game they should have lost against Tennessee. Baylor falls into a solid situation as we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. Baylor is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games while the Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (188) Baylor Bears

This is a play on KENTUCKY for our Saturday Enforcer. Kentucky was supposed to make some noise in the SEC and after 4-1 start with the lone loss coming against Florida by just five points, things were looking that way. Since then, the Wildcats have lost four straight but it has not been an easy slate. They lost to an average Auburn team by just three points but it has been three blowouts since then although those came against Mississippi St., Tennessee and Georgia, a pretty tough slate. Kentucky has to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible and with the season finale against Louisville, this game, along with next week against Charlotte, are must wins games. Vanderbilt is also in must win mode as it has to win out to become bowl eligible but it is not going to be easy with Texas A&M and Tennessee after this. The Commodores have a very solid defense but they simply cannot score as they have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games. They are coming off a brutal loss last week as they had Florida on the ropes but lost on a late field goal 9-7 and that will be tough to recover from and the feeling here is they won't. Kentucky falls into a great situation as we play on road underdogs after two straight losses by 17 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (153) Kentucky Wildcats

San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on INDIANA for our Big Ten Game of the Year. We lost a tough one with the Hoosiers last week against Iowa as they came within a point of the cover. After opening the season 4-0, Indiana has dropped its last five games but the home contests have been more than competitive. Prior to last week, Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Now the Hoosiers are getting close to a touchdown more this week than they got against now 9-0 Iowa and while solid, we don't think Michigan is a better team than the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have suffered a pair of tough losses this season and while they have dominated at home, the road has been more difficult and this is just their second road game since the begging of October with the only other game on the highway resulting in just a three-point win at Minnesota. Give credit to Michigan for bouncing back from that Michigan St. loss as it dominated Rutgers last week but with games against Penn St. and Ohio St. on deck, this is a tough sandwich spot. Michigan is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while the Hoosiers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (128) Indiana Hoosiers

It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls

This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. got hosed by the referees last week at Nebraska which was unfortunate as the Spartans were rolling along and had a legitimate shot as making the College Football Playoff should it have gone into Ohio St. undefeated and pulled off the upset. The season is far from done however and a team like the Spartans can only be extremely motivated after the debacle from last week. That puts them in a great spot this week and because of that alone with the inability to cover the majority of their games this season, they are getting exceptional line value here. Maryland has lost six straight games and with the loss against Wisconsin last week, the Terrapins have seven losses so there will be no bowl game in their future and that is a big deal going forward as there is not much to play for at this point. They have lost six straight games but because they have covered four in a row, this number is lower than it should be based on the situation. The number has come down a field goal since opening as of Wednesday afternoon and we can take advantage of waiting this one out. The Spartans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after playing their last game on the road and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game under head coach Mark Dantonio. 10* (134) Michigan St. Spartans

Despite two straight losses, Colorado still remains in the postseason hunt as it has six losses so it must win out in its 13-game slate to become bowl eligible. While winning the last three games may seem like a stretch, the fact of the matter is that the Buffaloes are mathematically alive so there is plenty of motivation Friday night. They were hammered at home last week against Stanford while getting 14.5 points and here they are getting more points against a team that is not as good as the Cardinal. Additionally, Colorado is the first team playing its final home game of the season and laying in the national TV spotlight adds to it. USC has been playing well and is still alive for the PAC 12 South thanks to three straight wins but this is not an ideal spot for a blowout win. The Trojans last two games are against Oregon, which they have not faced since 2012, and rival UCLA, which they will be out for revenge after last season's 38-20 loss. Colorado has not fared well in this series since joining the PAC 12 but this is the best Buffaloes team that has faced the Trojans so being competitive should not be an issue. Bouncing back from last week's loss should happen as Colorado is 4-0 ATS I its last four games after putting up 275 or fewer yards last games while USC is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a win. 10* (116) Colorado Buffaloes

Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team for the first time and it should be a circus. While both offenses have been pretty steady of late, the defenses have been a real disappointment. The Jets allowed more than 20 points just once in their first five games but have allowed 29 ppg over their last three games. On the other side, Buffalo gave up 14 or fewer points in three of its first five games, it has allowed 28.3 ppg over its last three games. Both defenses are better than these recent forms and I expect both to pick it up on Thursday night. Because of the recent defensive struggles, the Bills have gone over the total in three straight games while the Jets have gone over the total in four straight games so we get the value that comes with that. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Buffalo, we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are coming off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 52-21 (71.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. For the Jets, we play the under involving teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 62-26 (70.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 11-5 in the Bills last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 16-4 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing seven or more yppl in their previous game. 10* Under (109) Buffalo Bills/(110) New York Jets

It has been a disappointing season for Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech but definitely more so for that latter. The Yellow Jackets came into the season ranked in the preseason top 20 and got up to No. 14 before losing to Notre Dame in the third game and it was all downhill from there. That started a string of five straight losses and they actually outgained the opponent in three of those. Four of six losses have been by just one possession and there is no room for error as Georgia Tech has to win out to become bowl eligible and keep its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games going. Georgia Tech has scored 20+ points in 19 consecutive ACC games dating back to 2013, the longest active streak in the ACC. Virginia Tech is 4-5 and can afford only one loss to remain bowl eligible for a 23rd straight year. The Hokies are coming off a win over Boston College but they have not won consecutive FBS regular season games since the middle of last season, going 0-4 in its last four games. While getting an extra week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets offense may seem like a benefit, the Yellow Jackets are 8-3 in their 11 games against teams that have more than a week to prepare. The Hokies are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Yellow Jackets are 17-8-2 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (112) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Northern Illinois continued its recent dominance over Toledo as it defeated the Rockets last Tuesday to hand them their first loss of the season. It was a big win for the Huskies to keep their MAC West hopes alive and speaking of big wins, it was their first quality win of the season as the first four FBS wins came against teams a combined 9-30. Hitting the road for a second straight game will be a difficult challenge and on top of that, the Huskies paid a price with that victory however as quarterback Drew Hare was lost for the season and while Ryan Graham looked good in relief as he rallied his team to the victory, it is still a big step down. Buffalo is having a solid season at 5-4 including 3-2 in the MAC and while taking out Bowling Green in the MAC East is next to impossible, the goal now is to grab that sixth victory to become bowl eligible. The Bulls are just 2-2 at home but one loss came against Nevada by three points despite outgaining the Wolf Pack by 108 yards as turnovers did them in while the other loss came against aforementioned Bowling Green by just six points. While there have been decent Buffalo teams in the past, this is one of the better ones and once of the most vulnerable Northern Illinois teams so Buffalo has a great chance at breaking its seven-game losing streak against the Huskies since joining the MAC in 1999. 10* (108) Buffalo Bulls

With Northern Illinois defeating Toledo last week, it brought a lot of teams from the MAC West right back into the mix. The Rockets had won their four previous MAC games but they were fortunate to have a very soft front end of the schedule as those first four games were against teams currently sitting at 8-30. Now, counting last week, the final four conference games are against teams that have no more than one conference loss and are a combined 24-12. Central Michigan is one of those teams that has a shot at the division as it is 4-1 and the final two games after this are against Kent St. and Eastern Michigan, a combined 4-15. The lone conference loss cam by just two points at Western Michigan, which tops the West at 5-0 but has a tough game tomorrow against 5-0 Bowling Green so a loss there can make it a bigger logjam. There is plenty of motivation for the Chippewas as they have lost five straight meetings in this series by double-digits but this is the best Central Michigan team over that stretch as two losses have come by three points or less and another came by just 13 points against 9-0 Oklahoma St. The Chippewas fall into a potent situation where we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (102) Central Michigan Chippewas

A great matchup on paper a few weeks ago has turned into which team can finally win their third game of the season. The point spread seems to be right on with the Chargers about two points better and then another two points added for home field which is one of the weakest in the league. With not a lot of pressure on either side, we should see both offenses slinging it around and having success in doing so. The Bears will be without Matt Forte so rookie running back Jeremy Langford will make his first career start and he should find holes against a Chargers defense that's allowing 124.6 ypg on the ground, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Getting him going will help out Jay Cutler who has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Philip Rivers is having a great season and that should continue here despite the loss of Keenan Allen as the Bears secondary is a mess. Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his eight games this season and while the Bears are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, but have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for fourth-most in the league. The over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 4-0 in the Chargers last four games against teams with a losing record. Both teams fall into the same situation as we play the over involving teams with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (473) Chicago Bears/(474) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on INDIANAPOLIS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Colts came through for us last Monday night as a big fourth quarter forced overtime but they just fell short. Indianapolis fell to 3-5 on the season and is now tied with Houston for first place in the AFC South so each game is getting bigger and bigger at this point. A shakeup was needed and it came this week as Rob Chudzinski is taking over the playcalling after offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired and this is a great situation for the Colts because of this. New wrinkles will be put in place and Denver is at the disadvantage of not being able to review film as things will be different. The Broncos remained undefeated with a big win last Sunday over previously undefeated Green Bay as they dominated the Packers which provides us with a great spot to go against them. The Colts are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams completing 61 percent or better of their passes while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS victory. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a revenge game for the Broncos from the playoff loss from last January but we are not an advocate of road revenge and it won't come into play here. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on GREEN BAY for our NFC Game of the Month. Green Bay may be a surprising road favorite here to some, but it is the right side and frankly, the Packers should be favored by more. This week we have heard that the Packers are reeling right now and are a team that is ready for a freefall and not even a top ten team. Well, those declarations are all wrong and catching Green Bay in this spot after the effort last week is a huge edge. The Packers were awful last week in Denver against the best defense in the NFL but they have been a great bounceback team. Under Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 18-5 ATS off a loss and under head coach Mike McCarthy, they are 8-1 ATS in nine road games after scoring 14 points or less last game. Additionally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a game on the road the last tow years. Carolina is one of four remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and arguably the worst of the bunch. The Panthers have not outgained a single opponent by more than 51 total yards through seven games and overall, they are outgaining opponents by just 6.5 ypg. Granted, the Packers are getting outgained overall but that was due to the thrashing that was put upon them last week. They fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites that are coming off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on WASHINGTON for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The public is all over the Patriots once again which comes as no surprise as they moved to 7-0 following a blowout win over Miami last Thursday night. But now the lines are going to really get overinflated and we are seeing that here. New England looks like the team from 2007 that went undefeated as in losing does not seen to be an option at this point but the Patriots have not been as dominant as that team. Only three of the seven wins have been by double-digits where back in 2007, the first eight wins were all by double-digits. The Redskins are getting six more points than the Dolphins were getting which is too big of an adjustment. New England has had some extra time for this one which is always an edge but Washington is coming off its bye week so it has had more time to rest, recuperate and prepare. The Redskins are now 3-4 following a win over Tampa Bay in which they came back from a 24-0 deficit and that should provide them with a ton of confidence. Getting two touchdowns in this league is way too much unless you are a bottom feeder and the Patriots have had their share of issues as they have gone 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games when favored by -13 or more points. Additionally, we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the RAMS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Vikings pulled off another big win last week in Chicago as two big pass plays set up the game-tying touchdown and game-winning field goal. They have won five of their last games following a season opening loss in San Francisco and Minnesota has covered every game since then as well. This is the start of six games against potential playoff teams, all of which have winning records, and this is a tough spot here as Minnesota has yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Rams have won two in a row and at 4-3, they are just a game and a half behind Arizona in the NFC West. The possess two impressive wins over Seattle and Arizona and with Todd Gurley in the lineup, this offense has turned things around quickly. Defensively, they are one of the best in pressuring the quarterback and they match up very well here. The Rams have quality depth all along the defensive line and are tied for second in the league with 23 sacks. Their best chances of slowing Adrian Peterson will come from their tackles disrupting the Vikings at the point of attack. They fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 137-83 ATS (62.3 percent) since 1983. Head coach Jeff Fisher has especially been great in similar spots as his teams are 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing nine points or less last game. 10* (455) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on the RAIDERS/STEELERS OVER for our Total of the Week. The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss last week against the Bengals as two late interceptions led to Cincinnati pulling away at the end. Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 and is now four games behind the Bengals in the AFC North. The offense that was expected to be one of the most explosive in the NFL has been anything but that, averaging just 21 ppg. Obviously, the absence of Ben Roethlisberger had a lot to do with that but now that he is back, the offense should start clicking again. The loss of Le'Veon Bell is a huge one but we should see more of the passing game and with the Steelers staying below the total for the last six games, we are playing with a lot of value here. The Raiders come in with a 4-3 record after two straight wins as the offense has put up 37 and 34 points and that was the fourth time this season Oakland has scored 27 or more points. They have gone over in five of seven games which is offsetting some of the value but with the playmakers on the Raiders offense starting to really click, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Going back to the Bell absence, when DeAngelo Williams played in the two games during his suspension, the Steelers scored 64 points so the potential is definitely still there. Pittsburgh is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while Oakland is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games in the second half of the season. 10* Over (451) Oakland Raiders/(452) Pittsburgh Steelers

While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks

Well, we have gotten burned by Old Dominion for the last three weeks and we are not going to get off the Monarchs as they are more than due for a cover as they are off to a 0-8 ATS start although some may have pushed last week against Western Kentucky. Going against the Hilltoppers proved to be a bad call as they are 5-0 in the conference but now Old Dominion faces a team with a worst record yet is getting a double-digit line. Texas-San Antonio is 1-3 in the conference and 1-7 overall with the only win coming against UTEP. The Roadrunners are coming off a loss against previously winless North Texas so this team is much worse off as their hopes of a bowl game are now shot. While Old Dominion has struggled against the number, it is still within reach of the postseason at 3-5 so motivation is still there. The Monarchs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points, after Week Ten of the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Roadrunners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following one or more consecutive losses while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 200 or more ypg. 10* (403) Old Dominion Monarchs

This is a play on OREGON ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. I'm not sure what the Bruins have done to be laying this kind of road lumber but we will take advantage of this inflated line. UCLA has won two straight games following a two-game losing streak and while it is 3-2 in the Pac 12, the Bruins have been outgained overall in doing so. They struggled with Colorado at home last weekend as they won by just four points while getting outgained by 154 total yards. The Beavers have struggles this season as they are 0-5 in the conference but they have definitely played better at home than on the road. They lost to the same Colorado team by just four points but unlike the Bruins, they won the yardage battle by 73 yards. In the only other home game, Oregon St. lost to Stanford and was actually getting less points there than it is this Saturday. The Beavers have struggled on offense but they face an injury riddled defense and UCLA will continue to have trouble stopping the run against an adept zone-read team in Oregon St. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley admitted that the personnel issues have limited what they wanted to do from a strategic standpoint. Oregon St. falls into a great situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are coming off one or more straight overs, that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (386) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our November Underdog Game of the Month. The Big XII got the biggest shaft after the first edition of the college Football Playoff Poll as all three undefeated teams are ranked lower than their AP and USA Today rankings including both teams in this matchup. Not a lot should be read into this as the meat of the schedule is still to come and this is the first of many big games in November. TCU has been near the top of the rankings all season and has played very well although it has struggled on a few occasions. The Horned Frogs have played four road games and won three of those by a touchdown or less, with a game at Iowa St. being the exception. They failed to cover the two games as a single-digit road favorite and they will have their hands full here. Oklahoma St. is also 8-0 and it too has also won a handful of close games. The Cowboys have scored 128 points in its last two games, piling up 1,245 total yards, including 859 yards through the air. They fell down 24-0 last Saturday at Texas Tech and trailed early in the fourth quarter yet still won 70-53. TCU sent Oklahoma St. on a five-game losing streak with a 42-9 win in Fort Worth last season so there will revenge in play as well. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (384) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on FLORIDA ST. for our Saturday Enforcer. Clemson is coming off another offensive explosion last week against NC State to remain undefeated and we missed the cover on the Wolfpack no thanks to a late Tigers field goal. Now the Tigers come in with the bulls-eye on their backs as they are ranked No. 1 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and of course, they are paying the price for it. This is no doubt an excellent football team and deserves to be where it is but is there a 21-point difference between these two teams from last season to this season? The Tigers were close to double-digit underdogs a season ago and now they are double-digit favorites and something says that the Seminoles will have something to say about that. Florida St. recovered from its heartbreaking defeat to Georgia Tech on a blocked field goal return at the end of the game as it destroyed Syracuse last week, preventing any chance of a letdown or a possible lookahead. The loss to the Yellow Jackets snapped a 28-game ACC Winning streak but this team is still equipped to win big games. The Seminoles have not allowed more than 24 points this season and while this will be the most diverse offense they have faced, the Clemson offense will have its hands full. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 yards on offense in their previous game and while the home field is a big edge here, Florida St. keeps this one close. 10* (387) Florida St. Seminoles

The most overrated team in the first College Football Playoff rankings arguably is Iowa. Yes, the Hawkeyes are an impressive 8-0 on the season but how impressive is it really? They did have an impressive win over Northwestern on the road but the Wildcats were just coming off a tough loss against Michigan. Iowa also defeated Wisconsin on the road but was outgained while doing so by 99 yards. The rest of the schedule has been tame at best and the rest of the schedule is far from tough as Iowa has been fortunate this season to miss Ohio St., Michigan St., Penn St. and Michigan, the top four teams in the Big Ten East Division. Indiana comes in with a 4-4 record, all four of those losses being within the conference and all coming in the last four games. This is keeping the public off the Hoosiers this week but we are backing the home underdog here. Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for this revenge battle which brings up a great situation when facing undefeated teams. Going back, Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game while going 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (338) Indiana Hoosiers

Washington St. is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Stanford as the Cougars had a late lead but allowed a field goal with less than two minutes remaining and could not get the lead back, eventually falling by two points as they missed a last second field goal. That is a loss that will be extremely tough to recover from and while Washington St. is one win away from bowl eligibility, the desperation on the other side is greater. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak but the Cougars still got the cover which was their fifth straight cover and that is adding value in this line the other way. Arizona St. lost late last Thursday night against Oregon in triple overtime which dropped the Sun Devils to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Pac 12. Now with the Pac 12 South Division out of reach, the goal is to make it to a fourth straight bowl games under head coach Todd Graham. While it was a tough loss to take for the Sun Devils, they outgained the Ducks by 241 total yards as the offense remains powerful. It has an ample number of playmakers and the defense is relentless in its backfield pursuit, leading the Pac 12 in sacks and tackles for loss. Washington St. is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games against teams allowing 250 or more passing ypg while going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. 10* (415) Arizona St. Sun Devils

The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels

This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators

Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs

Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers

It was made official this morning that Johnny Manziel will start for Cleveland Thursday night against the Bengals. While we pretty much knew that was coming anyone, it made no matter on who we were taking in this divisional rivalry. The Browns have struggled the last couple games against the Rams and Cardinals to fall to 2-6 overall as they will miss the playoffs yet again. Still, this is a big rivalry game and the Browns would love to be the team that hands the Bengals their first loss of the season. We thought that team was Pittsburgh last week and the Steelers were looking great until the fourth quarter as a pair of late Ben Roethlisberger interceptions did them in. The Bengals were outgained for the third time in four games including two straight so while the winning has been nice, it has not been dominating. Despite a perfect record, Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by just 25.4 ypg which is certainly not great. Still, the Bengals have covered all but one games this season and that was a push against the Seahawks in another miracle comeback. Even though this roster is filled with talent, it is still a team with many questions. The Browns fall into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Cleveland Browns

Baylor may be playing with a chip on its shoulder after being picked No. 6 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Top 25 despite being ranked second in both the AP and USA Today Polls. But despite rolling through everyone the Bears have played, I think the ranking makes sense considering the opposition they have faced. Obviously it is one game at a time and Baylor cannot afford to slip up however the fact it has Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and TCU on deck could provide a firm lookahead spot. Kansas St. is having a tough season as it is off to a 0-4 start in the Big XII and while the stats do not look good, the Wildcats have shown fight. They lost by just two points at Oklahoma St., seven points against TCU and the loss to Texas was by 14 points but a late touchdown by the Longhorns provided the winning margin. A home loss to Oklahoma was ugly but the Sooners were in a terrific spot there. Kansas St. will be out to avoid a third straight home loss for the first time since 2008. The Wildcats fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is the most points the Wildcats have seen at home since 2008 and look for a much closer than expected game here. 10* (308) Kansas St. Wildcats

With Toledo losing Tuesday night, Western Michigan is now in the drivers seat in the MAC West, sort of. The Broncos are 4-0 and while they control their own destiny, it is not going to be easy. They face Bowling Green, which was 4-0 going into Wednesday, and then close with consecutive road games at Northern Illinois and at Toledo so after Thursday, the combined record of the final three teams they face is 12-2. That means they cannot slip up here and with the way they are currently playing, that should be no concern. Ball St. is coming off a win on Halloween against Massachusetts which snapped a five-game losing streak. It was not a pretty win though as the Cardinals won by just 10 points against the 1-7 Minutemen and were outgained in doing so. Going back, Ball St. has been outgained in six straight games and that is not a good trend to possess. Additionally, the Cardinals are coming off the luxury of a three-game homestand so this marks their first road game in 26 days. Here, we play against road teams coming off a win over a conference rival as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 88-46 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being close to three touchdowns. The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan has covered seven of its last eight games after scoring 37 or more points. 10* (314) Western Michigan Broncos

Bowling Green is playing at an exceptionally high level right now but you have to pay the price to bet them, a huge price. The Falcons have won five straight games, covering four of those, with the lone non-cover coming by just a point. They are in prime position to win the MAC East as they have a two-game cushion. If they beat Ohio, all they need is one more win or one more loss from whomever wins between Buffalo and Kent St. on Thursday. Bowling Green has outscored Massachusetts, Akron and Kent St. 169-48 in its last three games. Ohio was in the mix but has since dropped its last two games and neither were very pretty. The Bobcats are tied with aforementioned Buffalo and Kent St. at 2-2 so a win here is imperative to remain in the hunt. The good news is that for our purposes we are simply looking for a closer game than is expected with what is a very inflated line because of recent results. Stopping the Falcons high flying offense will be a challenge but the Bobcats are not being asked to stop it, just slow it down enough to make it a game. Ohio allows just 370.3 ypg which is 53rd in the nation. The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (303) Ohio Bobcats

When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets

The Colts have been a major disappointment this season as they come into tonight at 3-4 and a loss tonight puts them into a tie with Houston in what is currently the worst division in the league. Andrew Luck has been a big reason for that and it has been reported that he was playing with not only a bad shoulder but cracked ribs. It should not be a huge deal as this is not uncommon. The Panthers are off to a 6-0 start and while Denver was the most fraudulent perfect team prior to last night before the very impressive win, Carolina now holds that claim. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by just five ypg and while the defense is solid, the offense is not going to run away from anyone. Carolina can distance itself from Atlanta which lost its second game of the season yesterday but this is a big number for the Panthers to cover. Under Luck, the Colts have won 15 out of 16 games when coming off a straight up cover loss and they fall into a solid contrarian situation. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Panthers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their last game at home while the Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (275) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on DENVER for our SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME. NBC could not have asked for a better matchup to face off against the World Series, there was no sweep, as a battle of undefeated teams square off in primetime. The Broncos and Packers are both coming off bye weeks and both have been extremely successful when playing with a week of rest so there is no edge either way. With what we have seen so far, Green Bay is the better team as a whole as the Broncos have hit a few problems along the way but have managed to escape defeat. Still, being the home underdog here is a bit surprising even though the offense is struggling as Denver has not been a home underdog since September of 2012. Defensively, Denver is the better team and that will be a big asset this week. Despite a perfect record, Green Bay has been outgained in three of their six wins and this is just its second road game since opening week. Here, we play on any team after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 73-36 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Denver is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a spread loss. 10* (274) Denver Broncos

This is a play on DALLAS for our SUNDAY ENFORCER. The Cowboys were the preseason pick from many to win the NFC East but when Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone, all bets were off. Dallas somehow had to get through the stretch of his absence by keeping close to the top of the division and it is actually still there because of the mediocrity of the rest of the division. Dallas has gone 0-4 and while it is still in the mix, losing many more games will take a hit. A win here would be monumental and after outgaining the Giants by 171 total yards last week, a win is far from out of the question. The Seahawks looked like the Seahawks of old last week in San Francisco as the defense dominated the 49ers in a 20-3 victory, outgaining San Francisco by 246 total yards. It was a big road win and a big win in general to remain two games behind Arizona in the NFC West. However, that was the first road win in four chances this season as the highway continues to sit way below the home dominance. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our AFC GAME OF THE WEEK. The return of Ben Roethlisberger could not have come at a better time with Cincinnati coming to town. The Steelers survived without him by going 2-2 in the four games he did not start and they get him back for the big game to stay within the division. We played against Pittsburgh last week in Kansas City with one of those reasons being the fact it had lost a game against the spread up to that point. That logic calls for going against Cincinnati this week as it comes in 5-0-1 ATS record gives value going the other way. Despite a 6-0 record, other than the opener against the Raiders, the Bengals have not outgained any other team by more than 60 total yards and have actually been outgained twice. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 12 home games coming off a double-digit loss and additionally, the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the top to bottom roster may be better than the Steelers, Cincinnati is not as dominant as it should be for a team that is undefeated. Pittsburgh avoids a 3.5-game deficit in the division with a big win Sunday and hands the Bengals their first loss. 10* (264) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on SAN FRANCISCO for our SUNDAY ULTIMATE UNDERDOG. The Niners have been all over the place this season. They looked great in their season opening win over Minnesota only to look horrendous in their next three games prior to a solid game against the Giants and a win over Baltimore and than last week happened. San Francisco was dominated by Seattle but we can't take too much out of that considering the Seahawks have dominated that series even when the 49ers were really good. Point being, the 49ers are not as bad as they have looked in some of their losses but are now getting their biggest line of the season. The Rams took care of Cleveland last week but they have yet to win consecutive games this season, going 0-2 after its first two wins, and is 1-5 since the start of last season following a victory. While this is a decent team and an improved squad, St. Louis is laying its biggest pointspread since Christmas Eve of 2005 which was the last time it laid more than a touchdown. The Rams are not that good to be doing it in this matchup as the gap is not this big. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 93-46 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on CHICAGO for our SUNDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The Vikings were a sexy pick to make the playoffs this season and they are living up to those expectations so far with a 4-2 record following their win last Sunday against Detroit. It is hard to get a grasp of how good Minnesota is with that record considering it has been outgained in four of its six games including two of three on the road. The Vikings will be seeking a third straight win for the first time in three years and going back they are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Bears are far from out of its and have been playing very solid before they hit their bye last week. They had won two straight games before losing a tough one in overtime against the Lions. This is the first time they have been home in a month and despite being just 1-2 in three home games, Chicago has outgained all three opponents and that includes games against Green Bay and Arizona. While making the playing is probably already a longshot for the Bears, a win here is huge as a loss will be detrimental. The Vikings opened as favorites here but the line has since shifted the other way so while we missed the better number, I don't expect that come into play. 10* (254) Chicago Bears

Notre Dame is back in the playoff hunt following its double-digit win over USC two weeks ago. It was a game it feasibly could have lost as the Irish were outgained by 114 total yards but survived thanks to taking advantage of turnovers and blocking a punt for a touchdown. This is just the third road game of the season for Notre Dame and the first two were far from perfect as one was a loss in Clemson while the other was the miracle win in Virginia in the final seconds. Temple has to be the biggest surprise in the nation as it is 7-0 for the first time in team history yet is getting no respect. The Owls are ranked No. 21 in the current AP Poll and amazingly this is the first time in the history of the program that is will be competing as a ranked team against a ranked team. That makes the atmosphere here on Saturday an electric one especially with a team like Notre Dame coming to town in primetime and with ESPN Gameday on campus as well. This is a bad spot yet the Irish are laying double-digits on the road and part of that is because of public love while also the fact that they have covered five straight games which the public loved flocking to. Going back, Notre Dame is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. 10* (156) Temple Owls

This is a play on IOWA ST. for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. This game sets up perfectly for Iowa St. as three weeks ago, the Cyclones probably would have been favored here but now that Texas is again back on the public radar, the overadjusted line is in full force. The Longhorns upset Oklahoma three weeks ago then had a bye week and then defeated Kansas St. last week, which has some of its worst talent in years. Now they go from a seven-point home favorite to a road favorite of nearly the same because name and recent history. Iowa St. is just 2-5 on the season including losses in three straight games but those three games were against Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. Those teams are ranked first, second and third in total offense respectively in the nation. Texas is ranked 107th so it is safe to say that the defense takes a big step down in class. It may be a surprise to some that the offense is what has made headlines this week as offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was fired as well it was announced that Joel Lanning would replace Sam B. Richardson as the Cyclones starting quarterback. While these moves may be a cause for concern, this is when the players rally around everyone. This is especially the case here where this game has been circled for a while. Two years ago, the Cyclones were in position to win but the referees misses a pair of fumble calls and Texas won by a point and followed it up with a three-point last season. And then there is the bulletin board material from Texas defensive tackle Paul Boyette stating that Iowa St. is not a very good team. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record while going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams averaging 150 or fewer passing ypg. 10* (164) Iowa St. Cyclones

The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars

This is a play on NC STATE for our ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. Clemson is one of the bigger surprises in the country as it has climbed the charts from a preseason No. 12 team to its current ranking of No. 3 in the AP Poll. The Tigers leapfrogged LSU and TCU from the No. 6 spot because of the 58-0 win over Miami and while the voters made a kneejerk reaction, the linesmakers have as well. They opened the season with wins over Wofford and Appalachian St. then snuck by Louisville and Notre Dame, the latter which should have been a loss, followed by wins over Georgia Tech, losers of five straight and a mediocre Boston College team. Sure, Clemson is undefeated but other than a fortunate win in a monsoon over the Irish where they were actually outgained by 141 yards, the Tigers are a tad overrated. NC State won three games in 2013 in Dave Doeren's first season but turned things around last season by recording eight wins and this team is even better. Two straight losses against Louisville and Virginia Tech have the Wolfpack 1-2 in the ACC but this is a very underrated team. Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett quarterback is one of the best that no one has heard of as he has an absurd 33/6 TD/INT ratio the last two seasons and can keep this team in this game from an underdog standpoint. Clemson has played a tougher schedule but the fact it is outgaining opponents by 201.9 while the Wolfpack are outgaining opponents by just 40 ypg less shows these teams are much more eve. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (136) NC State Wolfpack

It has been a tale of two seasons for San Diego St. After defeating San Diego on the FCS, the Aztecs dropped three in a row but they have caught fire since then with four consecutive victories and with that comes value issues. They are now a road favorite for the first time this season which is pretty aggressive for a team that has previously struggled in this role. Colorado St. picked up its first conference win with a convincing victory against Air Force and is now a game under .500 in the MWC and overall. That game took place two weeks ago so the Rams have the edge for added preparation and rest following seven straight weeks of action. Two losses this season have come in overtime while a third loss against Utah St. was due to a 3-0 disadvantage in turnovers. San Diego St. now goes from a home underdog to a road favorite which is very aggressive switch and the Aztecs have a negative situation on their side as we play against any team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that is coming off a win by 21 or more points as an underdog, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, San Diego St. is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while Colorado St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost two out of their last three games. 10* (148) Colorado St. Rams

This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears

We played on Old Dominion last week and got burned as Florida International scored the game's final 24 points and pulled out the cover. The Monarchs actually won the yardage battle by 50 total yards and we are coming back with them here as a massive home underdog. They were getting 14 points on the road last week and are now getting over three touchdowns at home with a lot of that due to them not having covered a game yet this season. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS which gives us huge contrarian value. Western Kentucky is a very solid team no doubt and had its four-game winning streak snapped last week at LSU. The Hilltoppers will be out to get back into the win column but laying this type of road lumber is too much. They were big road favorite at North Texas and won by 27 points but the Mean Green are one of the worst teams in the nation, sitting at 0-7. This is the third straight road game for Western Kentucky which puts it into a very tough position especially when being asked to win in a blowout. The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored while going 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. While the Monarchs have yet to cover this season, it is important to note that this is the largest spread they have seen all season and it will prove to be too much. 10* (182) Old Dominion Monarchs

We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers

Rice comes in a big home underdog despite being right in the thick of the C-USA West Division race as a win here could put the Owls in first place. They are coming off a pair of unimpressive wins over Florida Atlantic and Army West Point but at 4-3 and 2-1, there is not a huge dropoff between the Owls and Louisiana Tech as much as this line is telling us. Rice had to contend with some poor weather each of its last two weeks and that has had a lot to do with the closer than expected results. Louisiana Tech bounced back from a non-conference beating against Mississippi St. with a big win over Middle Tennessee St. by 29 points. That improved the Bulldogs to 3-1 in C-USA which is good for a tie for first place with Southern Mississippi in the C-USA West Division. They have been favored on the road in half of their four road games and failed to cover either of those as both of those games resulted in three-point decisions. Rice has had this game circled for a while as it came into the season finale against Louisiana Tech with a 7-4 record and got pounded 76-31 while getting outgained 677-371. It was a 28-24 game until the Bulldogs ran off 41 unanswered points and the 76 points allowed were the most since the Owls allowed 77 points against LSU back in 1977 so that is a pretty big motivator. Louisiana Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games off a win by 21 or more points while Rice is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in its previous game. 10* (120) Rice Owls

Miami has turned its season completely around since its London trip with the firing of Joe Philbin and the hiring of Dan Carpenter as head coach. The big turnaround has been on the offensive side as the Dolphins have scored 82 points over their last two games after scoring 65 points in their first four games. Because of the resurgence, the Dolphins went over the total in those two games and now the number this week has been adjusted and by too much in my opinion as this is the highest over/under Miami has encountered this season. Also, it is the first time the Dolphins have seen a total in the 50's since Week 13 of the 2012 season. Coincidentally, that was also against New England and it stayed well below the total. New England has also gone over the total in two straight games as well as four of its last five which is also playing a role in this week's total. The Patriots offense has been in high gear all season and while Miami has struggled on defense, that unit has also improved the last two weeks. Four of seven Thursday night games have gone over with two of the unders staying below by a total of just three points so the public continues to play the over on these nationally televised games. Both teams fall into a fantastic league-wide situation as we play the under involving any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 against division opponents, off a home win. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 19-5 to the under in its last 24 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* Under (101) Miami Dolphins/(102) New England Patriots

We are laying a large number here with Georgia Southern but this has the potential to be a woodshed job. We played against the Eagles last Thursday as they ended up getting trounced by Appalachian St. which put them a half-game behind the Mountaineers and Red Wolves in the Sun Belt Conference. Appalachian St. became the first team to ever defeat the Eagles in a Sun Belt Conference game as they were 11-0 in Sun Belt play since joining the league in 2014. That alone should provide plenty of motivation heading into this week. Texas St. snapped a three-game skid with a home win over South Alabama and while the scoreboard showed an 18-point win, the Bobcats were actually outgained by 44 yards. They have been outgained in all five games against FBS teams and in three road games, they have been outgained by a total of 799 yards so clearly they have struggled on the highway. As far as a matchup edge, the Eagles have run the ball on 81.8 percent of their plays, totaling 31 rushing touchdowns and 2,587 rushing yards this season. Both marks lead the entire nation and they face a Texas St. defense that is ranked is 123rd in rushing defense. Don't expect the Eagles to look past Texas St. as they have a game with Troy on deck so there is no lookahead and they have not forgotten last year when they defeated the Bobcats by just three points while getting outgained 439-268. Following its first loss of the season, a 44-0 drubbing against West Virginia, Appalachian St. bounced back with a 26-point win over a solid Western Michigan team and we should see an even bigger blowout Thursday. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles

Baltimore hits the west coast for the second straight week with its season hanging in the balance. The Ravens are a surprising 1-5 and while many will call them dead already, the schedule sets up very well going forward as they have a three-game homestand on deck while moving more forward, six of their next eight games are at home. A sixth loss will be detrimental but we aren't totally concerned with that here as the cover is in our interest and this line has gone through the roof. A big reason is the fact that Baltimore has yet to cover a game this season and with the public being a player of the favorite on Monday nights, the linesmakers had to make the overadjustment here. Arizona is coming off its second loss of the season last week at Pittsburgh so a win here is big for the Cardinals to avoid its lead in the NFC West to shrink to a half-game over the Rams. They have the highest point differential in the NFL which helps with the line as well as it has reached a point that Arizona is not accustomed to. Being favored by more than a touchdown is a rarity and not a successful number for the Cardinals as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite between 7.5 and 14 points. Additionally, the Ravens fall into a fantastic league-wide contrarian situation where we play on road teams with a losing record on the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Baltimore's five losses this season are by a total of 22 points which further shows how much this line is off by. 10* (475) Baltimore Ravens

This game has been off the board for most of the week because of the status of Ben Roethlisberger but offensive coordinator Todd Haley told reporters he's planning for Jones to start Sunday. The Steelers are coming off a huge win last Sunday against the Cardinals as they were held to four field goals but managed to win by 12 points despite getting outgained by 159 total yards, the third straight game they have been outyarded by their opponent. Pittsburgh has yet to have lost against the spread depending on the closing line and that is putting the public on its side. The Chiefs have dropped five straight games after a season opening win against Houston but some of those could have gone either way as they have outgained there of those five opponents. Kansas City has lost both home games which are two of the games it could have won which is a great spot here as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (456) Kansas City Chiefs