Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on TEMPLE. 10* While the Bulls played well yesterday, they're stepping up in a class here. The Owls are a well-coached team. Fran Dunphy, AAC men's basketball coach of the year for the second straight year, will have his team ready. The Owls know they weren't expected to finish as highly in the conference as they did. Dunphy will make sure that they're aware its all for nothing if they don't take of business here. Even with yesterday's win, the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS their last five tournament games. This is the first time that they will have played back-to-back games all season and I expect it to catch up with them. 10* ESPN Breakfast Club

I'm playing on Boise State and Colorado State to finish UNDER the total. Last month's meeting at CSU was a wild and controversial (2 OT) affair, finishing with a whopping 190 points. However, that was actually kind of a bad beat for 'under' bettors, as the teams had 148 after regulation, a score which would have fallen comfortably below the total. The Rams have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the past couple of seasons in conference tournament games. During the same stretch, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 10-2 in all tournament games with a total. With the UNDER also at 2-0 this season when the Broncos attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. This one sets up well for the Cavaliers, one of the best defensive teams in the country. Virginia is playing very well right now. The Cavs are off a 22-point destruction of Louisville and are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. Give the Jackets credit. They played well in their regular season finale, earning a win against Pittsburgh. Then, yesterday, they knocked off Clemson. They needed OT to do so though and that game figures to take a toll on them as they step up in class against the Cavs. Virginia won't get caught looking ahead either as the Jackets actually upset them back on 1/9. The Cavs know that if they won that game that they would have won their third straight ACC title. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While not alot separates these teams in the stats department, I believe the Gators' defensive edge will put them over the top. Both these teams were 9-9 in conference play, the Gators having the slightly superior overall record. Florida won the lone regular season meeting by four points. Its true that John Egbunu will be limited for the Gators, as his hand will be in a brace. The Gators are a very balanced team though and if they need to go with a smaller lineup, I believe they'll still cause trouble for Arkansas. While the Razorbacks allow oppposing teams to score 76 ppg (45.1%) on the road, the Gators allow 69.5 ppg (41.8%) on the road. The Gators won twice as many road/neutral games as did Arkansas, including a neutral site win over Oklahoma State. The Hogs were 0-3 SU/ATS when playing on a neutral court. Those losses weren't exactly against the likes of UNC either as they came against G-Tech, Stanford and Mercer. Both teams will be desperate but I like the Gators to get it done. 10* Breakfast Club (Part 2) *Part 1 tips @ 12 ET*

I'm playing on Richmond. The Rams have the better record and are the higher seed. However, I feel that Richmond is favored for good reason. While they didn't have a great regular season, I believe the Spiders have themselves a great matchup on Thursday afternoon. Though they're known for their defense, the Rams still allowed 72.5 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooging 47.3% against them. The Spiders can score anywhere they play. They averaged 77.7 ppg overall and 76.4 (47.7%) when playing away from home. The Rams, on the other hand, managed a mere 64.5 ppg (41.1%) on the road. The Spiders have long dominated this matchup and I look for their superior offense to ultimately be too much for the Rams to handle. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. The Hoyas may have had some trouble against good teams this season but they have no trouble beating up on weak teams like this one. Now 12-2 their last 14 against teams with a losing record, the Hoyas won all seven games against losing teams this season, going 3-0 SU/ATS the last three of those. Most recently, they destroyed St John's by a score of 92-67. The Hoyas won both regular season meetings against Depaul by double-digits. While Depaul is 1-11 ATS its last 12 neutral court games, the Hoyas covered the spread in both their neutral site games this season. The Hoyas need to "get healthy" with a big blowout win and a first round date with Depaul should be just what the doctor ordered. 10* personal favorite 

I'm playing on Stanford. I successfully played against the Cardinal in their last game. That was a road game against an angry Arizona team though while this is a neutral site game against Washington, a team Stanford matches up much better against. 

Its offense vs. defense in this one. Washington scores more than 80 ppg but also allows more than 80. Stanford scores less than 70 but also allows less than 70. That said, I believe the team that more effectively dictates the tempo will likely emerge victorious - and I believe that team will be Stanford.

This Cardinal team, which played one of the toughest schedules in the country, isn't getting much respect. However, I'll note that they are very balanced, which should serve them well here. In fact, its the first Stanford team with five players averaging in double-digits in scoring since 1948-49. 

While the Huskies were 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season, the Cardinal were 2-0 ATS, beating Arkansas last time on a neutral court. The Cardinal won a close one against the Huskies in last year's tournament and a similar result this afternoon won't surprise. 10* best bet

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON. You wouldn't normally find a team, which was 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, laying double-digits. However, this is a very favorable matchup for the Eagles. I believe that they'll capitalize on that favorable matchup and use it to build their momentum and regain their confidence with a blowout win. 

Eastern Washington coach Jim Hayford noted: "I'm the most confident coach in the world on a four-game losing streak. As I look back on these last couple of weeks, I like that my team is hungry for what lies ahead."

The Eagles players share their coach's optimism. When asked about the 4-game skid, forward Venky Jois responded: "Everyone here has a 100 percent confidence that we can go four games in a row the other way."

The Lumberjacks have lost 13 of their last 15 and have just three wins since the end of November. They just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Eagles. The Eagles score more than 82 ppg overall and more than 84 in conference play. The Lumberjacks averaged less than 70 points overall and just 63.6 away from home. 

Lumberjacks head coach Jack Murphy commented: "They really got up and down on the court on us. They did a great job offensively and on the offensive glass ... "

The Eagles won the two regular season meetings by 34 combined points. I'm expecting another one-sided affair. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ST. Mary's. Both these teams are very good on both sides of the ball and they're certainly very familiar with each other. It should be a great battle. The Gaels won both regular season meetings and they had the better overall record this season. Yet, its Gonzaga which checks in as a small favorite. While I certainly respect the Bulldogs, I believe thats providing us with value on the Gaels. St. Mary's has the best shoooting percentage in the country. Combine that with a Top 5 defensive ranking in terms of points allowed and they're going to be tough to beat. I look for the Gaels to dictate the tempo and ultimately find a way to win. 10* Main Event. 

I'm playing on Portland State. While the overall records are similar, the Vikings are arguably playing better basketball right now. They've won four of their last five, including a win at Northern Colorado, and come in with some confidence. The Bears also come in off a win in their last game, an upset of Montana. Keep in mind that they'd lost seven of eight before that though. Also, lets remember that the Vikings average more ppg than do the Bears AND that they also allow less. With this projected to be a high-scoring game, the tempo should favor Portland State. The Vikings are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 160s, the Bears are 2-5 ATS. I expect the Vikings to pull away and I'll lay the small number. 10* Big Sky Tourney GOY

I'm playing on NC State. Neither of these teams is (likely) going to win this tournament. To do so, they'd have to win five games and beat some of the top teams in the country, starting with Duke on Wednesday. Both will be looking to win this one but I believe NC State will have the advantage. I played against the Wolfpack in their last game. That was on the road, against a hungry Notre Dame team though. Wake Forest represents a much easier opponent, one I believe they can and will handle. Since they won a home game vs. the Wolfpack back on 1/10, the Deacons have gone an awful 1-14. One of those losses came at NC State, a 10-point win by the Wolfpack. Anthony Cat Barber had a career high 38 points in that game. I expect him to lead the Wolfpack to another win and cover on Tuesday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on STONY BROOK. Two days ago, the Stony Brook women's team beat the Hartford women's team by 18 points in the opening round of the America East Women's tournament. Now, the men meet (in the semis) and I expect an even wider margin of victory for the Seawolves. 

The Hawks did the Seawolves a favor by beating Albany in the opening round. Don't expect Stony Brook to treat them "nicely" as a result though. Since 2008-2009, the Seawolves have beaten the Hawks 16 of 17 times.

Yes, the Hawks are "pressure free." Hartford coach Gallagher noted: "We’re going to be the loosest group in America playing Monday night." Junior Pancake Thomas added: "Really no one expects us to be here, so like we’re not really supposed to be here. So we’re loose."

Being "loose" will only take you so far though. Eventually, superior talent wins out. The Seawolves won this season's regular season meeting by a combined 47 points, an average of 23.5 per game. I expect them to take care of business in blowout fashion once again. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on Memphis. The Tigers may be locked into the #6 seed in next week's AAC Tournament but that doesn't mean that this isn't a big game for them. Really big, in fact. They could really use a road win and some momentum going into the tourney. Additionally, they've got payback on their minds after the Pirates shocked them at Memphis earlier this season. The Tigers were heavy favorites (-16.5) for that 1/24 game, one they fully expected to win. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten. Coach Pastner even admitted: "We owe East Carolina." 

The Tigers score 76.6 ppg and that number actually rises to 78.2 on the road. East Carolina averages only 68.9 ppg, just 66 in conference play. The Tigers are arguably better defensively too; they limit opposing teams to a 40% shooting mark, opposing teams shoot 44.5% against the Pirates. Note that ECU is also the worst rebounding team in the AAC. Payback time. 10* AAC G.O.Y.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a big game for both teams. Due to sanctions by the NCAA, which restrict them from the postseason, the Mustangs will be playing their final game of the season, the final game ever for SMU for Nic Moore. Needless to say, Moore and co. would like to go out winners. That said, the game is arguably bigger for the Bearcats, who are on the bubble right now. Though they have 21 wins, the Bearcats are 0-3 against ranked teams. A victory here would be huge. While the Mustangs are certainly tough, the Bearcats very nearly beat them at SMU. A late rally by Moore and the Mustangs led to a 59-57 SMU win. I like the revenge-minded Bearcats to rise to the occasion, their best effort leading to an important win and cover. *10 Breakfast Club

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. 10* While they fought hard and still covered the spread, the Bears finally had their winning streak come to an end last game. Off that hard-fought loss and facing what will be a determined ASU team, I expect the Bears to stumble again. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS their last five off a Pac-12 loss, an ugly 6-18-1 ATS their last 25. While the Bears are off a potentially deflating loss, the Sun Devils come in off a potentially momentum-building win over Stanford. They beat the Bears here again last season, after blowing them out the year before. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Berkeley, I expect at least a cover tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats had their hands full with Cal last game but this one figures to be considerably easier. Stanford has lost six of its last seven road games. Every loss came by a minimum of nine points and the lone win came against Washington State, the worst team in the conference. This line may appear high but the Wildcats thrive as big favorites. They're 27-13 ATS (40-0 SU!) the last 40 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 9-4 ATS mark when the line ranged from 12.5 to 15 here. They beat the Cardinal by 22 here last season and I expect a similar result this afternoon. 10* B.M. 

I'm playing on Charleston. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, the Blue Hens were 1-16 in their previous 17 games while the Cougars had won six of eight. Playing on their homecourt, the Hens shocked their guests though, a loss that send the Cougars on a dowward spiral to close out their season. After that game, there was a bit of trash talk going on. Delaware's Marvin King-Davis commented: "It was no upset. We came into the game knowing we could win." Those type of comments won't sit well with the Cougars who figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder, looking to get back on track and prove that was an aberration. The bottom line here is that one team plays defense and the other does not. The Cougars allowed 59.2 ppg in conference play this season, the Hens allowed 78.4. Payback time. 10* Colonial Athletic GOY

writeup to follow shortly

I'm playing on Arizona. The Bears won by a point when these teams met at Berkeley. I expect a highly motivated Wildcats team to avenge that loss in a big way here. 

Recent results have worked in our favor to keep this line a little lower than it would have been, had these teams met a few weeks back. Cal has won seven straight while Arizona has lost b2b games. Those b2b losses don't worry me though. Rather, I expect them to have this team at its best. In this season's two previous instances when the Cats had lost b2b games, they responded by beating Washington and Oregon State by 49 combined points, easily covering the number in both games. 

In the game at Berkeley, the Bears got an unlikely performance from Jordan Matthews, one which very probably won't be duplicated. Coming off the bench, Matthews was 6 for 12 from beyond the arc, scoring a career high 28. (He normally averages less than half that.) 

Note that the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS (11-0 SU!) their last 11 when avenging an earlier road loss. 

The Bears are still 3-8 on the road, those wins coming at Washington, Washington State and Wyoming. Needless to say, Tucson will be a much tougher venue. The Cats have won 53 of their last 54 here and they haven't lost three straight since 2010. Payback time. 10* March. Pac 12 GOM

I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. Wrong place, wrong time for the Red Raiders. The Raiders tested WVU in the 1/23 game (WVU rallied late to win by 4) at T.T. but this one figures to play out much differently. The Mountaineers entered the January meeting on a 2-game slide. Now, however, they're off back-to-back double-digit wins. Playing their final home game of the season, they aren't about to take their pedal off the gas. The Mountaineers, 13-7 ATS their last 20 when laying points, beat Texas Tech by 19 here last season.

A closer look at the game at Texas Tech shows that the Mountaineers got into foul trouble. The Red Raiders would connect on 32 of 34 free throws, a big reason why they were in the game at all. While thats certainly an impressive shooting percentage, its unlikely to be duplicated tonight. (With an average mark of 16 for 22 from the line on the road, they are a good FT shooting team but 16 makes is still a long way off from 32.) Without all those "free" points, keeping up will be considerably more difficult. 

The Red Raiders know they have a winnable home game vs. K-State on deck, something they can look forward to. Maybe that'll give them some comfort on the trip home. 10* Annihilator

I'm playing on Notre Dame. Off a blowout loss at Florida State and looking to avenge a 2/3 loss at Miami, the Irish should be hungry tonight. They're a perfect 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) on the season, when off an ACC loss. Further motivation comes from the fact that the Irish know they can clinch a double-bye by winning this game and then taking care of business against NC State. 

Of course, there's also a lot at stake for the Hurricanes. They'll be without Ja'Quan Newton for this one though and they haven't been quite the same team on the road. The Irish haven't lost b2b games since the end of the 2013-2014 season. They beat the Canes here last season and I look for them to do so again tonight, covering the small number along the way. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. Both these teams have been much better on their home court. Playing at home, I expect the Hawkeyes to have the edge. The second half of February wasn't kind to the Hawkeyes. The calendar has flipped to March though and I expect them to ring in the new month with a win. This is the Hawkeyes last home game (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to avenge a 2/11 loss at Indiana. That was the very game that triggered their slide. A big win will go a long way in making things right. It'll also delay (prevent?) the Hoosiers from claiming the outright Big Ten title. I expect the Hawkeyes to get that win, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on NORTH FLORIDA. The Ospreys are off two close wins, one of them against these same Spartans. Those results have helped to keep this line a little lower than it could have been, as there's a big class difference here. The Ospreys, who did win by 16 at South Carolina Upstate earlier, were the best team in the conference this season and I expect them to let everyone know it in their tourney opener. In addition to dominating their own conference, the Ospreys put up 107 points against LSU while beating Illinois by double-digits. The Ospreys, 3-1 ATS their last four conf. tourney games, averaged 87 points against A-Sun teams this season. Bad news for the Spartans who score less than 70 on the road while giving up an average of 82.7. Blowout time. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on Texas and Kansas to finish OVER the total. This season's earlier meeting landed right on the closing total, a 76-67 victory for the Jayhawks. While tonight's total is slightly lower, I'm expecting the rematch to be higher-scoring.

The Jayhawks have been involved in a few lower-scoring games recently. However, now that they've officially locked up at least a share of the Big 12 title (one more win means they win outright) I feel that they may ease up slightly on the defensive end and/or that the shots may start falling a little more regularly. Keep in mind that prior to their last three, the Jayhawks had scored at least 75 points in six straight, hitting 90 or more twice. They're still averaging better than 81 ppg including a healthy 76.4 on the road. 

Texas has seen the OVER go 7-4 when listed as an underdog. The Longhorns are averaging 75.4 ppg at home. They beat Oklahoma last time out, scoring 76, the fourth time in five games that they topped the 70 mark. 

While I respect the defenses, I feel that both teams are going to score some points tonight. That said, I believe the number will prove to be too low. 10* T.O.M

I'm playing on USC. The Bears have been a spread-covering machine in February but I expect their final game of the month to prove to be their toughest. The Trojans have stumbled a bit lately but have still had an excellent season and are still a dangerous team. I believe that their quick guards present some matchup problems for the Bears and I expect them to be extremely determined to try and go out and win their final road game of the regular season. Note that the Trojans are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range.

Needless to say, at 17-0, the Bears have been very good at home. Last year's game here was decided by a single point though (The Bears were laying -7.5 for that February contest.) and this is a better USC team. ("According to research by J.D. Hamilton of the NCAA, USC's 9.0 game improvement from last season (12-20 to 19-9) is tied for 12th best in the country and tops among teams in the Power 5 conferences.") I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. 10* Best Bet.

I'm playing on Seton Hall. The Musketeers are saying all the right things about putting their big win against Villanova behind them. Sometimes, thats easier said than done though. I expect them their winning streak to come to an end against what figures to be a very determined Seton Hall squad.

While they stumbled against Butler a few games back, the Pirates are playing well right now. Off a 70-52 destruction of Providence, they've won seven of eight and they've covered nine of their last 11. They held the Friars to a mere 28.4% shooting. 

Xavier has already won more games than last year's Sweet 16 team did. Off the huge win and with bigger games on deck, starting with a revenge game against Creighton in their regular season home finale, I feel they won't be quite as hungry as their hosts here.

Derrick Gordon (known for being openly gay) will be honored for Senior Day. Playing in front of a sold out Prudential Center, l  I expect the Pirates to send him out a winner, in his final regular season home game. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on Santa Clara. The Tigers won a close one (73-72 in OT) when these teams played at Pacific earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor.

The Tigers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time out, rewarding the home fans by winning their final home game. The Broncos should be motivated to do the same. Note that the Tigers are 0-5 SU off a conference victory this season. In fact, they haven't had won two consecutive "lined games" all season long. (*They did win two in a row once but that included a victory over Bethesda-CA.)

The Broncos weren't happy with their last effort, a blowout loss at St. Mary's. They're 6-2 ATS their last eight at home, after playing at least three straght on the road though and they're also 6-1-1 ATS their last eight off a loss of 20 or more points, most recently winning outright at Loyola Marymount after getting trounced by BYU. I like their chances of bouncing back again here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Providence. I won with Depaul last game. Playing their final "winnable" home game and playing a revenge game against lowly St. John's, I expected the Blue Demons to go all out and leave it all on the floor. They rewarded me by doing just that. I don't expect a repeat performance this afternoon though.

This time, its the Friars who are playing with revenge. This time, its the Friars with a considerable edge in talent. 

Providence was laying eight points for the earlier game at Depaul but lost by seven. That loss started a slide that has continued right up until today. I believe the Friars, 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with revenge and knowing they're now "on the bubble," will be looking to make things right. 

Coach Ed Cooley knows Providence hasn't been playing well and I expect him to have his team ready. "There's no mistaking that we're not playing as well as we need to. Hopefully we come back and get the group ready to play against DePaul on Saturday. It's that time of the year and we just haven't played well."

Don't worry Ed, I expect that they will. The Friars beat Depaul by 27 last February and I sense another blowout this afternoon.  10* B.M.

I'm playing on Manhattan. In his three seasons playing for the Jaspers, Jack Powers led his team to two NCAA Tournament appearances, including 1958 when they beat nationally ranked West Virginia and Jerry West at MSG. Powers, who finished with 1,139 points, will have his number retired at halftime of tonight's game, the first Jasper to have that done. Before the game, seniors Shane Richards and RaShawn Stores will be honored. I expect the combination of "Jack Powers Night" and "Senior Day," to provide the Jaspers with some added motivation to win tonight. The fact that they lost at Iona should provide even further incentive. 

While this is a big rivalry for both teams, Iona may not be quite as hungry. The Gaels are off b2b wins over the top two teams in the conference. They've got the regular season home finale on deck and bigger postseason games ahead. I'm taking the points with the motivated live dog. 10* Motivational Mismatch

I'm playing on DEPAUL. One might assume that the Blue Demons hadn't been favored in some time. However, they were actually small favorites for last week's game at St John's. They got smoked by 15 points in that one though, which should provide some extra incentive tonight. The Red Storm would follow up last week's win vs. Depaul with a thriller against Seton Hall. Needing a win to keep their tournament hopes alive, the Pirates jumped out to a 19-point lead. To their credit, the Red Storm didn't quite. Instead, they rallied all the way back to take the lead, eventually losing 62-61. Off that thriller, a game that had meaningful NCAA implications for Seton Hall, and having fought so hard only to fall short, it may be tough to "get up" for a road game against lowly Depaul. Playing with recent revenge and playing likely their last "winnable" game, that should not be the case for the Blue Demons. They're 2-1 ATS their last three as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect another win and cover here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Portland State. I don't believe that North Dakota is playing well enough right now to be laying this large a number. Not against a Vikings team which is coming off its best offensive game of the season and coming in full of confidence. 

Portland State put up 107 points last time out, its first triple-digit effort against a Div. 1 team this season, third overall. Cameron Forte led the way, shooting 14 of 20 while scoring 32 points and grabbing nine boards. He was one of five Vikings to reach double-figures. That victory came against an Eastern Washington team which had won seven straight, too, one of those a double-digit win against North Dakota.

Portland State coach Tyler Geving, who adjusted his lineup (going small) before the last game had this to say of his team's big win: "They deserve it. They have had good attitudes and worked hard. Nobody has been hanging their heads."

An expected fast tempo figures to favor the Vikings. Portland State is 10-6 ATS its last 16 with a total in the 150 to 159.5 range while North Dakota State is 5-8 ATS during the same span. 

Including the loss at Eastern Washington, North Dakota is 0-3 ATS its last three games, two of those decided by a single point. While an upset won't surprise, I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 10* Big Sky GAME OF YEAR

I'm playing on IOWA. In addition to playing at home, I believe that the schedule favors the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been off since 2/17. During that time, the Badgers have been involved in two hard-fought games, a loss at Michigan State and a win vs. Illinois. At this time of the season, the extra rest can certainly be helpful and I expect the Hawkeyes to have the fresher legs.

Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig's post-game comments (after the Illinois game) are telling: "I just didn’t have any legs pretty much the whole game. Everything felt right on but was short. Everybody in college basketball is tired." Those tired legs may make slowing down Iowa's Mike Gesell a little more challenging.

Needless to say, the Hawkeyes have been tough to beat here. Unbeatable, in fact. 

Four straight wins will give the Hawkeyes their first (outright) Big Ten (regular season) Championship in nearly 50 years. While accomplishing that feat won't be easy, I do expect them to take the first step tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 10* Big Ten G.O.Y.

I'm playing on Fresno State. The Bulldogs are rolling at the moment. They've won four of five, covering in all four of those victories. They're stepping down in class tonight and I believe that they're ready to deiiver a blowout. 

While the Bulldogs are 14-2 at home, the Falcons are 2-10 on the road. While Fresno State averages 77.9 points at home, Air Force manages a mere 60.1 ppg on the road. 

With an O/U line in the mid-130s, the expected pace figures to favor Fresno. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, the Falcons are 2-6 ATS (0-8 SU) when doing so. The Falcons kept it close in this season's first meeting; I don't expect them to be so fortunate tonight. 10* B.M.

I'm playing on Ohio State. The Spartans are playing well right now. The same can be said of the Buckeyes though. They've won four straight and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. That's not surprising, given that they're a young team which has been growing and improving as the season has gone on. The Buckeyes last home game resulted in a double-digit win against Michican. They know they play at Michigan State on 3/5 and they'll be determined to go out and protect their homecourt here, while showing the world and proving to themselves that they can play with the best in the conference.

While the Spartans are obviously a very strong team, they can be beaten. They're just 2-2 their last four on the road. Izzo is a great coach and is saying all the right things to his team about maintaining focus etc. Still, they've got bigger games ahead. In other words, I believe this game means more to Ohio State than it does to Michigan State. 

The Buckeyes have quietly been competitive here for months. Their only home losses since 12/1 have been against Maryland and Virginia and both came by six points or less. An upset here would move the Buckeyes into the NCAA playoff picture. They're 7-1 ATS at home when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5, going 39-18 ATS in that role over the years. With nine straight meetings decided by single-digits, seven of those by four or less, I'm grabbing the points. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Wisc. Milwaukee. Off a 34-point destruction of Cleveland State, the Panthers come in full of confidence. While the line may initially seem high, keep in mind that the Panthers already won by 16, at Youngstown State. Last year, the teams were more equal (line was 3.5) and the Panthers still beat the Penguins by 15 here. 

The Panthers know if they can beat Valparaiso in their next game, they're likely to finish with 20 wins. But they also know they need to take care of business here first and will look to keep the positive momentum going by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

The Penguins are 6-17, the past few seasons, when playing a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games of the season had been played. During that stretch, the Panthers (17-11) are 14-7 ATS when playing a team with a losing record, after at least 15 games. They typically take care of conference weaklings, as they did against Clev. State. 

Youngstown State (10-18) qualifies as the Pens are really struggling right now. Playing their final road game of the regular season, the Penguins could easily already be thinking about their final two home games. The Penguins were very hot from the outside in their last game, going 12 for 19 (63%) from beyond the arc. That still wasn't enough. They turned the ball over 15 times and lost by 17 points, their fifth loss in six games. The lone win was at home vs. 5-21 Illinois-Chicago, the worst team in the conference. They're not likely to hit better than 60% from beyond the arc again and another blowout appears imminent. 10* B.M. 

I'm playing on St. Peter's. Monmouth is a good MAAC team which is having a very good season. That said, I believe that this is a very tough spot for the Hawks.

Both teams saw winning streaks snapped last time out. The Peacocks had won four straight before losing by a single point at Quinnipiac on Thursday. While close losses like that can sting, the Hawks are in a much worse "situational" spot. They played on Friday (as opposed to Thursday) so are playing with one less day's worth of rest. (Note that the Peacocks needed that extra day's rest as they had to play a make-up game on Wednesday.) Having won eight straight, the Hawks were playing their biggest game of the season. In fact, it was being billed as their biggest game in a decade. Here were a couple of comments from Monmouth players, prior to that game: 

Justin Robinson: "I expect it to be pretty packed before we come out the first time for warm-ups. A couple of students told me they were camping out all day before class and all that. People are very excited, especially since we played them the first time. I've tried to block it out, but you can't block it out anymore."

Josh James: "I expect the atmosphere to be like no other This game, the anticipation for this game is unreal. People have been talking about it since the day after we played them. People have been coming into get their vouchers, and it's only Wednesday, so you know they're fired up to watch us play."

What happened? Playing in front of all their excited fans, the Hawks got blown out right out of the gate. (That suited me just fine as I had Iona!) Having just failed to show up for such an emotional game, less than 48 hours ago, I believe the Hawks are going to struggle here. Note that they're 9-14 ATS off a conference loss the past few seasons. 

The Peacocks, who have won four straight here at home, are 9-4 ATS when getting points. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Monmouth, I expect their best effort here. 10* SITUATIONAL GOY

I'm playing on UC Irvine. This is a very big game in the Big West. In fact, its the first time in more than a decade that two Big West teams both with 20 more more wins will meet in the regular season. While no one will clinch the league title today, the winner will have a leg up and be in the driver's seat for top seed in the upcoming tournament at Honda Center. I expect homecourt to provide the Anteaters with the advantage. 

Under coach Russell Turner, the Anteaters have become an "elite" program in this conference. With that comes a sense of pride. They've now won 20 or more games for four consecutive seasons. They've made the postseason three straight years and made it to the Big Dance for the first time last season. They have every intention of getting back there and know that this is the team likely to be standing in their way. Note that they beat basically this same Hawaii lineup in the finals last season. 

The Warriors embarrassed the Anteaters at Hawaii recently and that won't sit well with Turner. Note that the Anteaters are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a road loss of 20 or more points. 

Turner, who certainly doesn't want to lose both reg. season games against a team with a 33-year old first-year coach, had this to say about today's game: "It’s a game for first place in the league, against a team that just beat us; it’s on national TV, we expect a big crowd and there’s a lot on the line, so yeah, it’s a big game."

The Anteaters are clicking right now. They shot 76% in the second half of their last game, one of their best shooting performances in years. They've scored 96 and 93 their past two games. Payback time. 10* (Top Big West play)

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Red Raiders have really been playing well of late. I expect their winning streak to come to an end here though. 

Off three consecutive victories over Top 25 opponents (for the first time in school history) and having seen their fans storm the court after beating #3 Oklahoma, I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for a letdown. 

The Cowboys saw what the Raiders did to Oklahoma and they'll be ready. They've beaten Texas Tech 23 of 26 times here at Stillwater and 43 of 59 times overall. While they've struggled a bit lately, they haven't quit playing hard. They lost by only two points at Texas Tech and they'll be itching for some payback tonight. 

Tubby Smith had this to say of the Cowboys: "I don’t think we've beaten them at Oklahoma State since I’ve been here. We have a very poor record in Stillwater ... They’re a team that’s been struggling, but they’ve played everybody close. They’ve played Kansas tough, and we’re in the game though Kansas pulled away at the end. They had the big win against Kansas State last weekend in overtime. We know what they’re capable of. We know how lucky and how fortunate we were  ... "

The party ends for the Red Raiders as the revenge-minded Cowboys continue their homecourt domination in the series. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IONA. These teams haven't liked each other for some time now and they got in a fight after last month's meeting at Iona. Both teams have had today's rematch circled since the last meeting. The stakes are even higher than that though, as Monmouth can secure the regular season title with a win. 

A couple of comments from Monmouth players about the excitement surrounding the game:

Justin Robinson: "I expect it to be pretty packed before we come out the first time for warm-ups. A couple of students told me they were camping out all day before class and all that. People are very excited, especially since we played them the first time. I've tried to block it out, but you can't block it out anymore."

Josh James: "I expect the atmosphere to be like no other This game, the anticipation for this game is unreal. People have been talking about it since the day after we played them. People have been coming into get their vouchers, and it's only Wednesday, so you know they're fired up to watch us play."

As much as the Hawks would like to win in front of their home fans, all the excitement does bring a lot of added pressure. The Gaels are a very good team, that's been playing well, arguably better than they were prior to the last meeting. (Off a 78-59 win, they're 5-1 SU/ATS their last six.) They'd badly like some payback. Nobody's beaten the Gaels by more than three points in nearly a month. Nobody's beaten them by more than eight points since before Christmas. 

Speaking of close games, both last season's "regular season" meetings were decided by three or fewer points. The first had a score of 92-89 and the second was 69-68. I won't be surprised to see this one also come down to the wire and am grabbing the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 10* best bet

I'm playing on UConn. As you're aware, the Mustangs aren't eligible for the postseason. While they've still managed an excellent season thus far, they've been inconsistent recently. Their last three victories have all been followed by losses. Off a big win against Gonzaga, I expect them to struggle against what should be a highly motivated UConn squad.

The Huskies could badly use a win against a ranked opponent; assuming they take care of business with the rest of their winnable games, a win here could potentially be enough to lock up an automated birth. A loss, however, and things become considerably more tense. 

Note that the Huskies are 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five in that situation.

The Mustangs have had some recent success in the series. The Huskies get some payback tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I've won with both these teams recently and feel that I've got a pretty good read on each right now. I successfully backed Duke on 2/8 when the Blue Devils knocked off Louisville. The Blue Devils would follow up that win with a SU victory (non-cover) at Virginia, a game I stayed off of. I also successfully backed the Tar Heels lately, as I played on them in their Valentine's Day blowout of Pittsburgh. 

Its been almost exactly two years (2/20/14) since the Tar Heels last defeated Duke. During that span, the Blue Devils have beaten UNC three times. Needless to say, the Tar Heels are dying for some payback. The Tar Heels haven't lost here since Duke visited last season, winning 13 straight on this floor since that game. 

Duke was #3 when it played here last season, while UNC was #19. Those numbers have essentially been reversed this time. Note that UNC easily could have won either meeting last season, too. They let the game at Durham get away from them, blowing a 10-point lead in the final four mins and losing by two in OT. The game here was competitive throughout, with the Tar Heels leading at the break. Note that the Blue Devils got 47 of their points from Okafor, Winslow and Cook, all of who have since moved on. Meanwhile, Amile Jefferson led the Blue Devils in rebounding in that game but he's been out since December. In other words, this is a vastly different Duke team from the one which won here last season. 

While they've fared reasonably well in games they're expected to win, the Blue Devils haven't performed well as underdogs this season. They've been getting points twice this season and both times they lost by double-digits. Listed as 4-point underdogs at Miami, they lost by 11. Listed as 1-point underdogs for a neutral site game vs. Kentucky, they also lost by 11. 

In my analysis for the UNC/Pittsburgh game, I mentioned that I felt the Tar Heels had received their "wake up call" from the close victory over Boston College, suggesting that it'd bring them some positive momentum. Here's a small excerpt from that writeup: "...The Tar Heels survived a scare last game. I believe that'll prove to be a wake-up call and I like the fact that they were able to pull out the win. Forward Theo Pinson commented: "I don't think people realize how big that was for us. Boston College hasn't won a lot of games, but we were in a packed house, we were down, everything was going their way."..."

I believe the Heels did receive their wake-up call. Now, off a momentum-building blowout, I look for them to exorcise some demons with a statement win over their archrival. 10* GOY

I'm playing on PROVIDENCE. I successfully played against the Friars in their last game. That result worked out pretty much perfectly, as far as I was concerned. Providence jumped out to a huge early lead only to see the Hoyas battle all the way back. Providence would eventually win by three, G-Town managing the cover. 

I went against Providence for a number of reasons in that one. First, the Friars were off three straight losses and I felt their confidence may be a bit shaken. Second, the Hoyas were looking to avenge an earlier loss at G-Town. Third, the G-Town/Providence series had been extremely close which favored "taking" points rather than "laying" them; four straight meetings in that series have now been decided by four or less.  Additionally, I mentioned that the Friars had one of the worst home records in the Big East.

NONE of the above are factors for this game though. The Friars are no longer on a losing streak. The fact that they nearly blew the lead but then hung on should help provide some positive momentum. This time, its the Friars who play with "revenge," not the other way around. Note that Xavier, which has revenge game of its own on deck, has only one win of greater than eight points in its past four games and only two wins of greater than eight points over its last nine games. Speaking of tight games, while not quite as "nail-biting" as the recent GTown/Providence games, the Xavier/Providence series has also been close. In fact, they've faced each other five times since 2014 and ALL five meetings were decided by single-digits. Once again, that favors "taking" points rather than "laying" them. That's particularly true with the Friars sporting a 7-3 ATS mark as underdogs. 

Going back a bit further finds the Friars at an impressive 25-13 ATS (19-19 SU!) the last 38 times that they were getting points and that includes a 4-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on BAYLOR. Some might be surprised that the Bears opened as small favorites. After all, the Cyclones are off a big 85-75 win over Texas while Baylor was just shocked by 84-66 by lightly regarded Texas Tech. I expect the Bears to bounce back though and believe that they're providing us with excellent value.

Baylor's loss against Texas Tech was indeed pretty ugly. In the Bears' defense, the Red Raiders did also just beat these same Cyclones in their previous game. Iowa State was able to bounce back from that loss and that's something that Baylor has been pretty good at this season too. The Bears resonded to their last loss with a double-digit win at K-State. On the season, the Bears are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in lined games, when playing at home after having lost their previous game. All three wins were by double-digits. 

True, the Cyclones will be looking for some payback, as the Bears beat them earlier. That doesn't necessarily mean much though. Over the years, the Cyclones are an ugly 14-47 SU when attempting to avenge a home loss, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two. The fact that they beat them earlier should give the Bears some confidence coming in.

While they do have a winnable road game (at TCU) still on the schedule, the rest of the slate is tough. The Bears will play at Texas and Oklahoma while hosting Kansas and WVU. That makes taking care of business here all the more important. 

The Bears have been at their best off a bad defensive effort. They're 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Main Event

10* A&M. Analysis before 7am PST

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Exactly two weeks ago, Wake Forest's women's team visited the Petersen Center and defeated the Panther women by double-digits. I expect the men to avenge that loss in a big way this evening. 

I successfully played against the Panthers in their last game. That was a road game at UNC though. This is a home game against Wake Forest. Big difference. The Deacons haven't won a game in more than a month and they're 1-4 ATS their last five. The only team worse than WF in the conference is Boston College. The Deacons face the Eagles next, so could already be thinking about a rare "winnable" game. 

Speaking of winnable games, a look at the Panthers' upcoming schedule shows that this is by far their most winnable game. The only other remaining home games are against Duke and Louisville, neither of them a sure thing, by any means. That means that if the Panthers want to snap their losing streak that they better take care of business here. They will. 10* BM

I'm playing on UNC Greensboro. While the Terriers have been playing well recently, they no longer dominate the Southern Conference the way they once did. I expect their winning streak to come to an end here.

Homecourt is very important to both these teams. The Terriers have only played four road games since mid-January. They won one by three points and lost the other three outright. They're 6-2 ATS at home but 5-9 ATS away. 

Its been a similar story for the Spartans. They're 4-8 ATS on the road but 5-3 ATS at home. They're 8-3 ATS in home lined game, dating back to last February.

Given the home/away numbers, its not surprising to find out that the Terriers won when the teams met at Wofford. Facing a team which they already handled and with Furman on deck, a team which handed them a 1-point loss, I believe the Terriers could get caught looking ahead here. 

Not so for the Spartans, who have been getting kicked around by this team for years. I believe they're a little more talented than their record indicates and I look for them to step up and deliver some payback. 10* Southern Conf. GOY

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. I successfully played against Oakland last Thursday. While I respect the Golden Grizzlies, I believe this will prove to be another good spot to go against them. 

The Golden Grizzlies have won seven of eight and six straight on the road. The recent loss vs. Milwaukee shows they can be beaten though. They'll be in a hostile environment this afternoon, as the Raiders have won 10 straight at the Nutter Center.  Off a blowout win and with a huge showdown at Valparaiso on deck, this could be a tough spot for the Grizzlies. 

The Raiders figure to be extremely motivated for this one. Not only is Oakland ahead of them in the standings but the Golden Grizzlies handed them their worst loss in conference play last month, at Oakland. Coming off a win at Valparaiso, against the top team in the conference, the Raiders also figure to be extremely confident. 

After today's game, the Raiders close out the regular season with three winnable games. A victory here would give them a legit chance of reaching 20 wins on the season. It would also put them on track to tie the school's Div 1 record for most home wins (14) in a season, as their only remaining home game comes against Northern Kentucky, a team which is 2-10 away from home. I like the Raiders' chances of tying that record and I look for them to take the first step here. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I successfully played against the Trojans in their loss at Tempe on Friday night. At the time, I said that I expected them to fall out of the top 25 rankings by the end of the weekend. Tucson is a far more difficult venue, I expect the Trojans to stumble again this evening.

Here's an excerpt of my analysis from Friday, as it relates to the Trojans' struggles on the road and to what happened the previous time they entered the Top 25:

"Considering that they only won three Pac-12 games all of last year, the Trojans are having a terrific season. In fact, the Trojans have turned things around so much that they find themselves with a Top 25 ranking, for just the second time in seven years. Enjoy it while you can USC fans, as I'm afraid your stay in the Top 25 will be short-lived. You may recall what happened the last time that the Trojans were ranked, as I also played against them that time. As soon as the Trojans entered the Top 25, they proceeded to lose back-to-back road games, at Oregon and Oregon State. Once again, the Trojans will have to play b2b road games with their Top 25 ranking. Once again, I expect them to struggle. True, USC will try and learn from last month's mistakes. The Trojans just aren't the same team on the road though. Since winning at Washington State on New Year's Day, the Trojans have dropped every game which was played outside of Southern California. No matter how much they talk about it avoiding it, having just entered the Top 25 can cause a team to start patting itself on the back a little. Also, a huge Valentine's Day game vs. Arizona could easily be cause for looking ahead ... "

While USC struggles on the road and in the state of Arizona, the Wildcats are very tough to beat at home. They outscore teams by an 83.9 to 63.9 margin. The Wildcats, who beat USC by 30 here last season, will have payback on their minds from last month's 103-101 (4-OT) loss at USC. They're 8-2 ATS (10-0 SU) the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I'm expecting them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. While the Tar Heels haven't done a very good job at the betting window recently, I really like how this one sets up for them.

Off three straight road games, the Tar Heels return home, where they're undefeatead on the season. Their last game here resulted in a 27-point win; they've outscored teams by an average of more than 20 points here. 

The Tar Heels survived a scare last game. I believe that'll prove to be a wake-up call and I like the fact that they were able to pull out the win. Forward Theo Pinson commented: "I don't think people realize how big that was for us. Boston College hasn't won a lot of games, but we were in a packed house, we were down, everything was going their way."

While the Tar Heels are off a potentially momentum-building close win, the Panthers are off a potentially deflating close loss. They've lost two straight for the first time this season and this is no place to go to try and snap a losing streak. Note that Pittsburgh is now 0-4 against ranked teams.

The Tar Heels haven't forgotten that Pitt knocked them out of the ACC Tournament two years ago. Nor have they forgotten that the Panthers blew them out at Pittsburgh, on Valentine's Day, last season. Payback time this afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on SMU. One could make the case that this game is more important for Gonzaga. After all, the Bulldogs could really use a big road win over a Top 25 opponent to bolster their tournament resume, in the event that they don't receive an automatic bid. Meanwhile, the Mustangs aren't even eligible for the postseason, due to a ban instated by the NCAA. I believe Larry Brown will have his team ready though and that they will in fact view this as a "very big game."

The Mustangs know this is a televised game against a big name non-conference opponent, their last such opportunity. They'd love to get back on track and to prove to the national audience that their 18-0 start was no fluke. Larry Brown, who missed the start of the season due to being suspended for lying to the NCAA, figures to want this one as much as anyone and I expect him to have his players ready. 

SMU's Markus Kennedy noted: "We've got to get back to where we were at in the beginning of the year where we knew what we were about and we knew what we were going to go out there and do," said , who scored all 13 of his points in the second half. "It's real easy just to get complacent and just to be nonchalant about the rest of the season. We can't let that happen."

Keep in mind that last year's SMU team qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993, nearly knocking off UCLA (lost by 1) when it got there. One of last year's losses came at Spokane, against these same Bulldogs. SMU hasn't forgotten and will be looking for some payback on its home floor. 

Note that Gonzaga, 2-6 ATS in non-conference lined games, will be playing its fourth straight on the road. I believe it may catch up with them here.

The Mustangs, who are 11-0 SU in non-conf. games, are 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) the last dozen times they were off a conference loss. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season too, both wins coming by double-digits. I expect their best effort here and for that to lead to another win and cover. 10* Non-Conf. GOY

I'm playing on UCONN. The Golden Hurricane won by nine points when these teams met at Tulsa. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Huskies to return the favor this evening.

The timing of this year's games was very similar to last year's. This year, the Huskies played at Tulsa on 1/14. The previous season, they played at Tulsa on 1/13. This year, the Huskies host the Golden Hurricane on 1/13. Last year, they hosted them on 1/12. 

Just as the dates are similar, I expect the results to also be similar. As mentioned, Tulsa won this season's first meeting by nine. Last year, Tulsa won the first meeting by eight. Last season, a year ago yesterday, the Huskies avenged that loss in decisive fashion. Laying -3.5 points, they won by 25. Including that blowout, the Huskies are 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

The Huskies are off a devastating loss against Temple. They've bounced back from their last four losses by winning their next game though and their postseason hopes remain in tact. Coach Kevin Ollie had this to say of his team: "This is what the character of a champion is all about. This is what I believe. We do our best work in the dark, and this is a dark time right now. We're going to go back to work like we've always done ... We've been down this road before. We'll be ready and play great against Tulsa."

The Huskies used a dominant defense to limit Tulsa to only 45 points in that one and I expect their defense to be the difference again here. While Tulsa is allowing 73 ppg on the road this season, UConn is permitting a mere 59.8 per game at home. I expect the Huskies to "be ready" and for them to "play great" en route to an important win and cover. 10* AAC GOY.

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. Considering that they only won three Pac-12 games all of last year, the Trojans are having a terrific season. In fact, the Trojans have turned things around so much that they find themselves with a Top 25 ranking, for just the second time in seven years. Enjoy it while you can USC fans, as I'm afraid your stay in the Top 25 will be short-lived. 

You may recall what happened the last time that the Trojans were ranked, as I also played against them that time. As soon as the Trojans entered the Top 25, they proceeded to lose back-to-back road games, at Oregon and Oregon State. 

Once again, the Trojans will have to play b2b road games with their Top 25 ranking. Once again, I expect them to struggle.

True, USC will try and learn from last month's mistakes. The Trojans just aren't the same team on the road though. Since winning at Washington State on New Year's Day, the Trojans have dropped every game which was played outside of Southern California. No matter how much they talk about it avoiding it, having just entered the Top 25 can cause a team to start patting itself on the back a little. Also, a huge Valentine's Day game vs. Arizona could easily be cause for looking ahead. 

The Sun Devils know all about struggling away from home. They are coming off a win at Washington State though, their first Pac-12 road win in nearly a year. I believe it'll provide them with some positive momentum and confidence. They'd desperately like their first conference winning streak of the season and know that opportunities to beat ranked teams, ones they actually can beat, don't come around often. 

The Sun Devils haven't forgotten last month's loss at USC. Nor have they forgotten that the Trojans upset them in last year's Pac-12 Tournament. They've beaten the Trojans seven of the last eight times here at Tempe, including three straight. I expect them to do so again tonight. 10* GOW

I'm playing on INDIANA. Iowa comes in with the higher ranking. However, I believe the Hoosiers are favored for good reason. 

These teams will meet again at Iowa on 3/1. Knowing that Iowa is undefeated at home, the Hoosiers know they need to take care of business here. They too, are undefeated on their home floor. 

Iowa has four losses away from home. They average 76.8 points when playing away from home. That's certainly respectable but it pales in comparison to the 91.1 ppg which the Hoosiers are averaging here at Indiana. 

While this year's team is certainly playing well, its still worth mentioning that Iowa is only 10-18 (8-20 SU) the last 28 times it was a road underdog of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, Indiana is 17-7 ATS (18-6 SU) as a home favorite of three or less. In what figures to be a fast-paced game, I look for homecourt to be the difference. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Wisconsin Milwaukee. The Golden Grizzlies have been playing very well and they're likely to be a popular pick here. However, I look for them to receive a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

These teams played a game which came down to the wire at Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Oakland was up by one at halftime and finished with a 3-point win. However, the Panthers have actually fared better on the road, at least from an ATS perspective. They're 7-2-1 ATS in road lined games and they've got nine wins away from home, as compared to six at home. 

It should be noted that the Panthers have been playing a lot of close games recently. In fact, ALL five of their last five games have been decided by four points or less. Eight of their nine overall losses have been by eight or fewer points and seven of those losses have been by four or less. 

The Panthers still view themselves as one of the top teams in the Horizon and they know a win against Oakland would prove that to everyone else. They were the last team to seriously challenge the Golden Grizzlies and I look for them to do so again. 10* Horizon GOY

I'm playing on UNLV. For the second time this season, the Rebels have dropped three straight games. They responded to their earlier 3-game skid with a double-digit victory against New Mexico. Tonight's opponent should provide them with the opportunity to again bounce back with a big win.

The Rebels are dealing with some significant injury problems at the moment. That's caused interim coach Todd Simon to "get creative" with his schemes. The Rebels had success in slowing down Fresno State with a zone-defense, which allowed them to erase a 17-point deficit. They've now had a couple of days to practice the zone and they'll be facing the perfect opponent to use it against. Simon wants this unit to build confidence and he knows a big win would go a long way. 

Note that the Rebels are 17-5 ATS the last 2+ seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. 

While the Spartans may be improved from year's past, keep in mind that they're still winless in lined road games. They're 5-12 ATS their last 17 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140s. 

UNLV beat the Spartans by 34 points here last season. Including that result, the Rebels are 10-2 ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. I look for the remaining Rebels to rally together and am expecting another blowout. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. The Wildcats have won five straight, and nine of 10, when hosting the Bulldogs. The last four of those victories have all come by double-digits. I expect another relatively one-sided affair this evening.

I successfully played aganist Kentucky last week at Kansas. That was a tough loss for the Wildcats and (in hindsight) it wasn't all that surprising that they followed it up with another setback. The Wildcats got back on track in a big way last time out though, destroying Florida by 19 points. I expect them to build some positive momentum from that victory. 

While the Bulldogs are 1-5 on the road, the Wildcats have yet to taste defeat at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 80.2 to 62.7 here. I don't think Georgia will be able to keep up. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DUKE. I won with Louisville on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals were facing a terrible team (Boston College) and I expected them to respond to the "bad news" by coming together and delivering a blowout win. That's exactly what happened. Tonight, however, they'll be on the road facing a top tier opponent, one which is quietly rounding into form.

After losing a couple of games here in January, off back-to-back wins, the Blue Devils have started to put things together.  They're averaging an awesome 90.5 points per game at home. Off an 88-80 win last time out, note that the Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS (11-2 SU) the last 13 times that they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They could badly use a victory over a ranked opponent and they should be extremely hungry to take advantage of this evening's opportunity. 

The expected pace figures to favor Duke here. With an O/U line currently in the high 140s, note that the Blue Devils are an outstanding 32-13-1 ATS (44-2 SU) the last 46 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. 

The Cardinals, who are just 1-5 ATS on the road, have obviously had an emotional week. While they were able to channel that energy positively on Saturday, I look for it all to catch up with them here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on TULSA. These teams just met at Houston on 1/27. Including a victory in that one, the Cougars have won three straight. I believe the Golden Hurricane are favored for good reason here though and I expect them to have their revenge. 

Both teams have been mediocre on the road. Both have been tough at home. Having already lost at Houston, Tulsa knows it needs this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they've been listed as the home team in this series. The last four of those victories all came by a minimum of eight points.

To their credit, the Cougars were able to win without their star Rob Gray Jr (ankle) last time out. However, make no mistake, his (potential) loss is a major blow. He leads the AAC in scoring. As of this writing, Gray is considered doubtful. However, even if he were to play, its likely he'd be at less than 100%.

Tulsa, which was defeated by Temple last time out, has been at its best off a loss so far this year. After two previous 2016 losses, the Golden Hurricane bounced back with a double-digit win each time. I believe the Golden Hurricane are the more balanced team and I look for them to also be the hungrier team. Look for them to "bounce back" big once again. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on BAYLOR. I successfully played against West Virginia last Saturday when the Mountaineers got destroyed by the Gators. While I do respect the Mountaineers, I'm going against them again here.

WVU has some strengths but also some weaknesses. Even Bob Huggins noted: "There's a lot of things we don't do well ... "

One of the Mountaineers' strengths is rebounding. That happens to be one of Baylor's strengths as well though. In last week's game against Florida, I noted the following: "The Gators catch a break in that WVU senior forward Jonathan Holton will be suspended for this game. Considering that he'd been averaging a double-double (12.3/10.3) the last three games, his absence figures to be significant." Note that Holton, who's 7.5 rebounds per game, ranks 5th in the conference, isn't expected to play. Once again, I feel that could prove significant. 

Admittedly, the Bears weren't at their best against Texas last game. However, they have been at their best, when coming off a loss. They're 3-0 SU, going 1-0-1 ATS in lined games, when off a loss. 

The Bears were 3-0 SU/ATS against WVU last season, all three wins coming by double-digits. Their starting lineup has played together in every game this season and has 446 combined games of starting experience. That experience has translated to success away from home as this team has won three consecutive Big 12 road games. I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle here with a great shot at an upset. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on RICE. Both these teams really struggle on the road. Playing at home, I look for the Owls to have the advantage.

Southern Miss, which loss by 16 at North Texas last time out, is 2-7 on the road. Note that ALL seven of those losses have come by a minimum of seven points. Six of them were by double-digits and they came by an average of 15 points. In other words, the Golden Eagles are accustomed to getting blown out on the road. 

While the Eagles manage a mere 53.2 ppg on the road, the Owls score 80.7 here at home. Overall, Southern Miss is scoring 65.9 ppg in conference play while Rice is scoring 78.1.

Admittedly, wins have been few and far between for the Owls of late. That said, when this team wins, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. Four of the Owls' last five victories have come by at least eight points.

These teams meet against at Southern Miss on 2/25 and the Golden Eagles will have a much better shot in that one. For this game, playing on their own floor, I look for the Owls to effectively dicate the pace and for the Eagles to have trouble keeping up. 10* CUSA GOY

I'm playing on VANDERBILT. The Aggies come in with the higher ranking. However, I expect the Commodores to be the team that comes away with the victory.

Admittedly, the Commodores have had real trouble against top tier opponents. That's what makes tonight's game that much more important. Remember, this is a Vanderbilt team which began the season with a top 20 national ranking. The Commodores want what the Aggies have. 

The Aggies are tough and are having a great season. All three of their losses have come away from home though and I believe they're coming into a hostile environment which hasn't been kind to them. 

The home team has won the last two meetings in the series with the Commodores taking three of the last four in the series overall. The Aggies have yet to win here as a member of the SEC. Vanderbilt is 

Vandy is 4-0 ATS the last four times that it failed to cover in its previous three games, most recently blowing out Auburn by a 75-57 score. I expect the Commodores' best effort again here. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Southern Illinois. The Shockers are a very strong team. They've dominated the conference for years, they've been a pointspread covering machine since before Christmas and their coach is on the verge of winning more games than any coach in school history. Everyone else knows all that too though and I believe thats led to a bit of an inflated line here. I also believe that the Salukis are going to show up ready to play.

While the Shockers get the majority of the attention in the MVC, up until their last game, the Salukis had quietly been playing very well themselves. From 12/12 through 1/24, they went 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. The lone setback was a blowout home loss against these same Shockers. The Salukis were embarrassed in that one and they should be determined to give a better effort here.

After the blowout loss against the Shockers, SIU coach Hinson had this to say: I'm really disappointed. I can't come in here and talk about one player -- not one player played well today. In order for us to beat a team like Wichita State we have to have lots of players play well." He continued: "We got punched and we didn't get back up off the mat. That's the first time that's happened this year."

Note that was the Salukis' worst defeat since they lost by 83-47 against Illinois State in Feb of 2013. Guess what happened in their next game? Listed as double-digit underdogs, the Salukis beat Wichita State outright! (That 64-62 win was the last time that the Salukis have beaten W.S.)

Admittedly, the Salukis didn't play too well last time out, losing by 11 at Northern Iowa. That was on the heels of a disappointing OT loss against Evansville though, so a letdown wasn't that surprising. I expect that effort to provide a wake-up call.

As Hinson noted: "If this is not a wakeup call for us, then we're going to have issues."

The Salukis have the best road record in the conference. I look for them to give the Shockers a tougher game than most will be expecting. 10* best bet

I'm playing on RICHMOND. At first glance, this line may seem a little high. However, I believe there's a big talent difference between these teams and I look for it be evident this evening.

True, the Patriots have a star in Shevon Thompson. At 6-11, 240+, Thompson is indeed a load. The backcourt is weak though and that's a big reason for the 7-14 record. The Patriots, who are 1-7 their last eight overall, have won only one true road game all season. Five of their last seven losses have come by a minimum of 11 points. 

While the Patriots manage a mere 64.4 points per game on the road, the Spiders score 81.5 here at home. Richmond, which has wins over teams from the ACC, Pac-12 and MVC, tends to win fairly big when it wins. Six of the Spiders' last seven victories have come by greater than 10 points, five of those by 15 or more. 

The big wins have primarily been a result of strong shooting. The Spiders hit 49.2% (51.1% at home!) of their shots, which is the best mark in the conference and 12th best in the country. Pretty impressive when considering that they've played a few very good defensive teams. They've had at least six straight games where at least four players have recorded double-digits in scoring. I don't feel Thompson and co. will be able to contend with that type of scoring and depth. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. The Hoosiers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe the Wolverines, who have won four straight, are favored for good reason. 

Homecourt has been important in this series and its been important to both teams this season. The Wolverines are 6-4 on the road but an impressive 11-1 at home. The Hoosiers are a perfect 13-0 at home but just 5-4 on the road. 

Last year, the Hoosiers beat the Wolverines by three at Indiana. However, the previous season, the Wolverines won by four in Ann Arbor. 

The Hoosiers are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) the last three times they were road underdogs of three or fewer points. During the same period, the Wolverines were 5-2 SU/ATS as home favorites of three or less. Look for the Wolverines to protect their homecourt, covering the small number along the way. 10* GOW

I'm playing on BAYLOR. The home team won both meetings in this series last season, the Bears covering in both. The Longhorns eked out a 2-point win (as 3.5 pt favs) at Texas. However, the Bears destroyed them by a 83-60 margin in the game here at Baylor. This one may not be that lopsided but I expect the end result to be the same.

As it was in last year's meetings, home court has been important to both these teams this season. Texas is 11-1 at home but only 3-6 on the road. Meanwhile, Baylor is 3-3 in road games but 13-1 at home. While the Longhorns get outscored on the road, the Bears are beating teams by an average score of 81.7 to 63.6 at home. 

To their credit, the Longhorns have been playing well. They've won five of six (4 of those wins came at home) and they've covered four straight. That said, lets remember that this Texas team is still missing center Cameron Ridley. I expect his absence to have an effect here. Keep in mind that the Longhorns have the worst rebounding margin (-0.3) in the Big-12. That plays into Baylor's strength as the Bears have the best rebounding margin (+9.9) in the conference. With the Bears able to dictate tempo on their home floor, I expect that significant frontcourt advantage to be the difference tonight. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. This is essentially a "must-win" game for the Panthers. This is team that I feel they can handle and I expect them to respond with their best effort.

The Panthers, who lost at Clemson last time out, have now dropped three of five. Their next three opponents, two of which they'll face on the road, are all very good. Virginia, Miami and UNC are a combined 50-9. That means that a loss here would be catastrophic.

Knowing the importance of this game, I expect the Panthers to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way and for them to be all business right out of the gate. Jamie Dixon noted: "We've got to come out and get defensive stops early ... "

To their credit, the Panthers have been at their best off a loss this season. In fact, they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation. Off an early season loss against Purdue, they responded by blowing out Duquesne. Laying -9, they won by 21. More recently, off a loss at Louisville, they hammered Boston College in their next game. Laying -19, the Panthers won by 23. Off a loss against NC State, they answered with an outright win (as a small underdog) at Florida State.

The Panthers haven't forgotten that they lost in OT at VT last season. The Hokies bench outscored the Panthers' bench by a 55-10 margin here. That won't be happening again here. This is a young VT team, one which lost both its leading scorer and rebounder from last year. Both transferred. Adam Smith hit a 3-pointer to force OT and then hit another with 3.6 secs left in OT, for the win. The Hokies don't have him any more though.

Virginia Tech has played well three games in a row but they came up short each time. Those type of hard-fought losses can catch up with a young team like the Hokies. Facing a determined Pittsburgh team, I expect it to here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. The Friars come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Hoyas are favored for good reason. 

The Friars actually have a better road record than they do at home. In fact, they're one of only four teams in the country that's undefeated on the road. (They did lose a neutral site game.) That doesn't mean that will continue though. I expect them to finally taste defeat on the road here.

While they've previously been good at bouncing back from losses, the Friars' loss in their last game figures to be a bit deflating. That's because they fought all the way back from a 17-point deficit, pulling within three, only to still come up short. 

Conversely, the Hoyas were able to erase an 11-point deficit in the final 2:32 of their last game. Unlike Providence, they found a way to win. John Thompson III noted: "I like the way our guys kept fighting. There was a lot of adversity coming from a lot of different angles throughout the game and I liked the way we kept fighting and kept plugging. In the locker room, every single person made a play, a winning play, to help us win this game."

That type of comeback and performance ("every single person making a play") can build momentum for college teams and I expect it to have that effect on the Hoyas today. 10* GOM

I'm playing on KANSAS. I was looking what people were saying in a few previews for this game and the general feeling seemed to be that Kentucky would come away with the win. While its true that the Wildcats are the hotter team at the moment, I believe that the Jayhawks are favored for good reason. 

The Jayhawks have had this game circled. The Wildcats embarrassed them 72-40 at the Champions Classic last season. The previous meeting saw Kentucky beat them in the national title game. 

Last year's game was at Indianapolis but today's rematch will be at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, an extremely hostile environment. In the past nine seasons, only three teams have won here. Under Self, the Jayhawks are 200-9 here. 

Calipari had this to say of the venue: "Going to Allen Fieldhouse, these guys will experience something they will never experience in their life in that building. There is no pro arena like that. There's no other arena we’re going to walk into that's going to be that bad."

The Jayhawks, who allowed 85 points on Monday, are 46-24 ATS (excluding pushes) their last 70 lined games after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Payback time at the Phog. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on FLORIDA. Admittedly, the Gators have had trouble against ranked teams. Beating West Virginia won't be easy, either. The Mountaineers have been one of the best defensive teams in the country this year. That said, I believe the Gators will find a way.
 
True, the Mountaineers won by double-digits last time out. However, a closer look shows that they committed 18 turnovers, missed 13 free throws and hit less than 43% of their shots.
 
The Gators have been very tough to beat on this floor. They're undefeated here in 2016 and have only one loss here all season. In their last home game, the Gators won by 32 points.
 
The Gators catch a break in that WVU senior forward Jonathan Holton will be suspended for this game. Considering that he'd been averaging a double-double (12.3/10.3) the last three games, his absence figures to be significant. Look for the Gators to take advantage. 9* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins have really struggled on the road and they lost a close one (3-point loss in double-OT) when these teams played at Washington. They've been much better at home though and I expect them to exact some revenge for the New Year's Day defeat.

While they lost to USC in their last game here, the Bruins beat a talented Arizona team their previous game here. They beat Kentucky by double-digits on this floor back in December and the Wildcats were #1 at the time. In other words, when they bring their best, they can beat any team here. The manner in which they lost the 1/1 game, combined with the fact that the Bruins are looking up at the Huskies in the conference standinds, should ensure we get their best effort tonight. 

The Huskies have benefitted from the fact that two of their first three conference road games have come against Washington State and Arizona State. Their only Pac-12 road game against a strong team (Arizona) resulted in a 32-point loss. 

The Bruins have dominated the Huskies here in recent seasons, beating them by 22 here last year. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five in the "revenge" role, going 12-4 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that role. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on UCLA/Washington to finish UNDER the total. The Bruins have faced the likes of UNC, Kansas and USC, three 12 highest scoring teams in the country. Yet, this is the highest O/U line that they've seen all season. I feel that it'll prove to be too high.

True, the Huskies can score alot of points. You may recall that these teams were involved in a 96-93 thriller on New Year's Day. However, lets not forget that the reason that game was so high scoring was because it went to double-OT. In fact, the score was only 71-71 at the end of regulation and that was only due to a flurry of scoring in the final 90 seconds. With 1:30 remaining in regulation, the score was only 65-64. So, without the extra sessions, that game wasn't actually high-scoring at all. 

In listening to Washington coach Lorenzo Romar talking about this game, a common theme from him was: "We have to be able to maintain that level of defense for 40 minutes."

The Huskies don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home and the Bruins don't allow as many at home. UCLA really frustrated Washington with a 3-2 zone and a 2-3 zone in that game. I expect more of the same here and that to lead to the Huskies having some trouble scoring.

Note that the O/U line was 160 for the previous meeting. It was also 160.5 when the Bruins faced both UNC (155 points scored) and USC (164 points scored) and 162 (165 scored) when they faced Kansas. All of those games would have stayed below tonight's higher O/U line. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on DREXEL. The Tigers had their way with the Dragons when these teams met at Towson two weeks ago. I expect a much different result for tonight's rematch at Philadelphia.

The Dragons have played a tough slate of games lately. Including the game at Towson, their last four games have come against the top four teams in the Colonial Athletic Conference. Three of those games were on the road, too. The lone home game was against UNC Wilmington. The Dragons were competitive (leading at halftime but lost by 6) but came up short. The result notwithstanding, it was encouraging that the offense "woke up" and topped the 70 point mark. 

The Tigers are no slouches either and are actually 3-1 on the road in conference play. That said, they've been inconsistent with their effort. They've also ost five times away from home, compared to just twice at home. Note that three of their road/neutral wins have been by four points or less and that they've also lost a pair of road games by two points or less. In fact, with the exception of a few blowout losses, all their road games have been quite close. Note that the Tigers are just 1-3 SU/ATS off a conference win. Last time they were coming off a victory, they managed only 37 points their next game.

Drexel leads the series, 48-18, and has won 23 of the 30 meetings here in Philadelphia. The Dragons won by four here last season. I like their chances of an upset here. However, with a real possibility of this being another close one, I'll happily grab the points. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on UTAH. I won with the Bears when these teams met at Cal a few weeks ago. However, I'm expecting a much different result for tonight's rematch.

After a slow start, off three straight wins, the Utes have started to hit their stride. The Utes, who have solid non-conf wins over teams like San Diego State, BYU, and Temple, not to mention a big win vs. Duke, have only lost on their home floor once all season.

Cal has also thrived at home. In fact, the Bears are perfect when playing at Berkeley. However, the Bears are just 1-6 on the road.

In addition to the change in venue, another big difference from the 1/3 meeting is that Cal will now be without star guard Tyrone Wallace. Wallace put up double-digit points in the first meeting, while leading the team in assists (6) and steals (2). The 6'5 senior averages 33+ minutes with a 15.4/5.4/4.6 line this season after doing the same 17.1/7.1/4.0 last season. This is the Bears' first road game since he got hurt and I believe that he'll be missed.

The Utes are an impressive 70-42 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Payback time. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MASSACHUSETTS. The Hawks are rolling. The Minutemen are slumping. Those results have led to a very high line. I believe that it will prove to be a little too high.

While most will be expecting a blowout, a look as the Minutemen's last four losses shows that none of them came by greater than a dozen points. The Minutemen get outscored by an average of 5.4 points on the road, the Hawks outscore teams by an average of 8.2 ppg here at home.

To give some perspective to how high this line is, consider that the Hawks were just laying -11 points against La Salle in their last game. La Salle has the worst record in the conference. When UMass played AT La Salle, it was the Minutemen which were favored. UMass won that game, too. Yet, they're laying a much higher line tonight. Granted, that's mostly to do with the fact that Hawks are now playing at home, in front of what figures to be a fired up crowd.

UMass coach Derek Kellogg thinks that may be just what the Minutemen need though: "...we've fared well in places when there's been some decent crowds, other than maybe Dayton Davidson had a good crowd that was on top of us and our guys responded. Maybe that's what we need, to go on the road and play a top-30 RPI team who's going to have a great home court advantage."

Overall, this has been a close series over the years. In fact, the Hawks haven't beaten the Minutemen by more than 11 points since way back in 2005 and they've played 17 games since that time. Don't be surprised if this one also proves closer than expected. 10* best bet

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Cyclones have won three of the last four in this series. However, prior to that, Kansas had won 18 of 19. I expect things to return to "normal" tonight.

The fact that the Jayhawks lost their last two road games may keep a lot of people off them here. However, I expect it to provide them with some added motivation, as they look to show the national audience that this is still a team fully capable of winning anywhere.

Kansas coach Bill Self held a meeting for his four best players prior to the Jayhawks last game. The team responded with a 9-point win over Texas, erasing an early 12-point deficit. Though that wasn't quite enough of a margin to cover the spread, it still allowed the players to regain their confidence. They were dominant in the second half and I look for them to build off that here.

The Cyclones have a talented starting lineup and they obviously are going to really want this one. That said, they've experienced some growing pains since the coaching transition; I feel the Self vs. Prohm matchup favors the visitors. I also feel the Jayhawks have a little more depth and won't view it as an upset when they finish on top. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on OREGON. I won with the Ducks when they knocked off #25 USC on Thursday. This afternoon, I'm expecting more of the same against the Bruins.

Last year, the Ducks were led by a superstar in Joseph Young. This year's team is far more balanced. They've got four players averaging in double-figures. As I mentioned on Thursday, the Ducks haven't lost on this floor for more than a year. This season, they're outscoring visiting teams by a 80.1 to 65.5 margin here. A win this afternoon figures to vault them back into the Top 25.

On the other hand, the Bruins have a sub-500 (4-5) road record, going an ugly 2-7 ATS. They've allowed an average of 81.3 points per game on the road, which I expect to spell trouble this afternoon.

It was almost exactly one year ago (1/24/15) that the Ducks crushed the Bruins by a 82-64 margin here. I won't be surprised to see hisotry repeat itself with another double win for the home team. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on UCONN. This is a huge game for both teams. For starters, they're all excited about getting to renew their old rivalry against each other. More importantly, they could both really use the win to help their Big Dance resume. That said, I believe the Huskies need it a little more and I expect them to be a little hungrier.

The Huskies have beaten Michigan, Ohio State and Texas but have lost against Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland. A victory here gives them a winning record against non-conference teams likely to be in the top 100 in RPI.

The Huskies haven't forgotten losing the double-OT thriller the last time that these teams met. UConn coach Kevin Ollie noted: "That was a good game [against Georgetown in 2013]. I didn't like the ending of the game, that kind of stuck in my mind ... Thank God, we've got another chance [Saturday] to get another win against a great program. We've got a great opportunity to get a great win."

I look for the Huskies to earn that "great win," improving to 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 9* breakfast club

I'm playing on IONA. The Gaels recent struggles at the betting window have helped to play a part in bringing this line down. I feel that this will be a good spot for a break-out game. Note that Iona was laying -9 points in this matchup here last season and -12 the year before. In fact, this is the lowest line, when the Gaels were the host in this series, since back in 2007.
 
Even with a loss in their last game here, the Gaels are still 7-1 on this floor and they've still outscored visiting teams by 10 points per game here. Yes, they'll be without Washington (suspension) but they've still got plenty of offensive firepower. Much more than St. Peter's. While the Gaels average 79.8 points (84.6 at home) per game, the Peacocks average a mere 68.6 points, just 277th in the country.
 
Off b2b overall losses, with a road game (Fairfield) on deck AND knowing that they'll play at St. Peter's in less than two weeks, the Gaels know they can ill afford another loss. I expect them to be all business tonight, controlling the tempo and cruising to a win and cover. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on OREGON. The Trojans come in with an impressive record and a lofty ranking. Clearly, they're a much improved team from the one that Oregon swept (again) last season. I still believe that the Ducks are favored for good reason though. Lets not forget that Oregon hasn't lost on this floor for more than a year.
 
Off an upset of rival UCLA and ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 2008, I believe the Trojans could be ripe for an emotional letdown.
 
Oregon, which lost at Colorado last time out, has done a great job at bouncing back from a defeat. The Ducks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS off a loss this season. I expect coach Altman to have his team fired up and for the Ducks to continue their dominance in this series. 10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. With a 16-3 record (5-1 in conference) the Salukis are starting to believe that they're an NCAA Tournament team. True, the schedule has been pretty soft. However, that doesn't change the fact that winning builds confidence.
 
Speaking of "confidence," the Sycamores may be lacking a little as they were thumped by 20 points last game, their winning streak snapped in blowout fashion.
 
The Salukis, who are 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or fewer points this season, know they need to hold serve at home in this one (teams play again at Indiana State on 2/10) and they haven't forgotten that the Sycamores swept them last season, upsetting them here last January. I look for them to come away with the win, covering the small number along the way. 10* January MVC G.O.M.

I’m playing on the Utah State Aggies as my 10* Best Bet.

Utah State plays host the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Tuesday night. The Aggies overcame a big injury to Grayson Moore to score a second straight win, knocking off Colorado State Saturday. While losing Moore up front is a tough pill to swallow, we like Utah State building on this momentum – especially catching points at home. Coach Tim Duryea is looking to go smaller with a possible four-guard set, which should up the tempo for an Aggies offense averaging just over 73 points per game. Chris Smith stepped up big for USU, scoring 35 points for a shorthanded side against the Rams. The Rebels have also won two straight games but both of those wins came at home. UNLV lost its first two MWC road tests and is scoring only 67.8 points per road game, compared to 81.1 points at home.

I’m playing on Utah State as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Virginia Cavaliers as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Virginia Cavaliers host the Clemson Tigers in an ACC showdown Tuesday. The Tigers are building some momentum in the conference with five straight wins, including some big-name victims like Louisville and Duke, while covering the spread in each of those contests. Clemson is impressive but now is the opportune time to go against the Tigers with their stock so high. And nothing throws a team for a loop like Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers. Virginia is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country, allowing just over 61 points per game. On offense, Virginia plays a methodical pace which sucks the shot clock and really takes opponents out of their rhythm. The Cavs average only 63.5 possessions per game, panning out to a 73.2 scoring average on 49 percent shooting. Virginia is eager to get back on track after a loss at Florida State this weekend and we see them slowing down the red-hot Tigers.

I’m playing on Virginia as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Utah Utes as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Utah is hoping some home cooking can heat up its offense when the Oregon State Beavers come to Salt Lake City Sunday. The Utes haven’t been sharp in recent games, averaging just under 58 points on 37.5 percent shooting the last three outings. Utah is in a tough spot against the Beavers, at 1-3 in Pac-12 play, making this a desperation game for the Utes. Oregon State comes into Sunday off a road loss at Colorado. With this game being their second straight road stop at high altitude, the Beavers could be running on fumes by the second half. This is just their fourth true road game of the season and OSU has struggled against the Utes, with Utah going 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings.

I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

*10 Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER WSU/Arizona.

The No. 16 Wildcats welcome the Cougars to the McKale Center Saturday. Arizona ranks among the top scoring teams in the country, averaging almost 83 points per game, but is without freshman standout and leading scorer Allonzo Trier for the second straight game. The Wildcats were able to overcome his absence against Washington, which boasts one of the softest defenses in the country giving up almost 79 points per game, and shot better than 60 percent from the field. But Washington State has had time to study Arizona’s offense without Trier and will attack that weakness Saturday. There’s no way Arizona continues to connect at that rate and we see a big drop off coming from the Wildcats offensively.

I’m playing on Under in Washington State at Arizona as my 10* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH.

I’m playing on the Iona Gaels as my 10* MAAC Game Of The Month.

Iona looks to extend its home winning streak when it hosts the Monmouth-NJ Hawks Friday. The Gaels picked up their 26th win inside Hynes Athletics Center with a 90-80 victory over Marist last weekend. Iona has won five in a row but has only covered in one of those games. Despite that ATS drought, we like the value with the Gaels in a big MAAC matchup with the Hawks. Gaels star A.J. English is back to full strength after missing time with a hand injury, averaging almost 21 points on 45 percent shooting in his four games back. Also back is fellow guard Deyshonne Much, who had 21 points versus Marist. Things are clicking for the Gaels and we love them at home with this short spread.

I’m playing on Iona as my 10* MAAC Game Of The Month Friday. 

I’m playing on the Santa Clara Broncos as my 10* Best Bet.

The Broncos are hosts to the Pepperdine Waves in WCC action Thursday. Pepperdine comes into this matchup off a huge win over St. Mary’s, taking a 67-64 win over the Gaels, snapping their eight-game winning streak. That sets the Waves up for a letdown spot in this tough road tilt. The Broncos are fresh off a win against San Diego in which they knocked down better than 51 percent of their looks in that win over the Toreros. Santa Clara has covered in five of its last seven games and is a solid bet against conference foes, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine WCC games.

I’m playing on Santa Clara as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I’m playing on the Gonzaga Bulldogs as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Bulldogs bring a seven-game winning streak into this home showdown against BYU Thursday, but haven’t been the most reliable side against the spread in that stretch – covering in just four of the six lined games. However, the Cougars will get special attention from Gonzaga, considering BYU stunned the Bulldogs in Spokane in the finale game of the regular season last year. That snapped a 41-game home winning streak – something that's not lost on the Zags. Brigham Young has only three players back from that upset and run small after 6-foot-11 center Nate Austin. The Cougars will have issues against an angry Gonzaga frontcourt, led by standouts Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, who run 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-10 and outclass most forwards they meet.

I’m playing on Gonzaga as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Fighting Irish are reeling after dropping two of their last three, including a home stand against Pitt last time out. However, we love the situation Notre Dame finds itself in Wednesday night hosting a Georgia Tech team coming off one of its biggest wins in recent seasons. The Yellow Jackets upset No. 4 Virginia last time out, opening the door for a huge letdown spot from the Cavaliers. Notre Dame is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, knocking down over than 40 percent of its outside looks. Georgia Tech could find itself buried early on if it comes out flat after such a big win.

I’m playing on Notre Dame as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I am playing on MINNESOTA. Minnesota is simply getting too many points from oddsmakers to ignore in this spot and I think the Gophers keep it close in this Big Ten matchup on Tuesday.

Minnesota will be playing with a little desperation in search of its first conference win of the season while Nebraska could have a slight letdown after earning its first conference game over Rutgers in the Huskers' last outing.

This seems to be a great matchp for the Gophers also after they hammered the Huskers in Nebraska in their last meeting last season, 60-42. 10* Main Event

I am playing on CREIGHTON. Blue Jays head coach Greg McDermott is calling this game against No. 9 ranked Providence one of the biggest games for the Jays since they've entered the Big East and I think home court will help propel them for the victory.

I'm expecting public money to head toward Providence in this one but the sharps know Creighton is a strong team laying a tiny number and is well worth the play here. The Jays have covered seven of their last nine games are absolutely blazing hot shooting in recent games.

Creighton has shot 49.6 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from long range and it's that 3-point shooting that I feel really gives them the edge here over Providence. The Blue Jays are also scoring 90 points per game at home this season and they own the reigning Big East player of the week, Maurice Watson Jr. who scored 40 points last week to go with 18 rebounds. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as my 10* GAME OF THE MONTH.

The Fighting Irish welcome the No. 21 Pitt Panthers to South Bend Saturday, looking for their fourth win in the last five games. Notre Dame is coming off a victory at Boston College, covering as a 9-point road favorite with a one-sided 82-54 victory. The Irish are among the top scoring teams in a conference setting the pace offensively in the nation, and face a potent attack in Pitt, which is putting up just over 85 points per game. Plenty of pundits are calling for a shootout between these two former Big East rivals and whenever you have that in the cards, you have to lean toward to the home side in their own gym. Notre Dame is averaging 83.3 points at home – almost 10 points more than on the road – and shooting just under 52 percent inside Purcell Pavilion. Pitt has struggled away from home since joining the ACC, taking a 4-13-1 ATS road skid into this matchup. Notre Dame has covered in seven of the last nine head-to-head matchups with Pitt and we see the Irish adding to that total Saturday with a convincing home win.

I’m playing on Notre Dame as my 10* ACC GOM. 

I’m playing on Kent State as my 10* Personal Favorite.

The Golden Flashes come into this home stand against the Buffalo Bulls on a three-game tear, thanks in large part to an offensive surge centered around star forward Jimmy Hill. The Mid-American first teamer dropped 18 and 21 points in his last two games, igniting 104 and 87-point efforts from Kent State. Having Hall at the middle of the playbook has allowed the Golden Flashes to drop it into the post and condense opposing defenses, opening looks for perimeter players. Kent State can really run it up against a Buffalo defense allowing a MAC worst 75.4 points a night. The Bulls have allowed opponents to knock down 43 percent of their shots and with a perimeter-focused defense, that leaves plenty of room for Hill to operate inside. Last year, he scored 16 and 18 points in the two meetings with Buffalo, while dominating the glass on both ends.

I’m playing on Kent State as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

I'm playing on UCLA. Off back-to-back losses to start Pac-12 play, the Bruins figure to be in a foul mood tonight. Granted, they'll be facing a far more formidable opponent - but they'll also be doing it at home. They haven't started off 0-3 in conference play for as long as I can remember (last time was 34 years ago) and I expect their very best effort tonight. Before panicking about the winless conference start - or about a visit from the #7 Wildcats - keep in mind that UCLA has already defeated the likes of Gonzaga and Kentucky. Lets also not forget that last year's team, which advanced to the Sweet 16, also lost its first two conference games. Even with the loss at WSU, the Bruins are still a healthy 10-5 SU/ATS the last 15 times that they were off a Pac-12 setback. The Wildcats won both meetings last season. Neither of those were here at Westwood though. Payback time at Pauley Pavilion. 10* Best Bet

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Off a loss to begin conference play, the Bulldogs are chomping at the bit to get back at someone. The Tigers should represent the perfect opponent as Georgia is 3-0 SU/ATS against Missouri the past couple of seasons. The two most recent meetings, both here at Georgia, saw the Bulldogs win by scores of 68-44 and 71-56. I expect another double-digit victory for the home team tonight. The Tigers have only played two true road games and they lost those by an average of 24 points each. Factoring in neutral court games, they're 0-5 on the road. The Bulldogs are stingy defensively and capable offensively. Yante Manten (16.6, 7.5) has emerged as a bigtime force inside while Frazier, Gaines and Mann form a strong backcourt, one which combines for 39+ points per game. That should be more than enough to take care of business against a young Missouri team playing its first SEC game of the season. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SYRACUSE.

The Tigers are off an impressive win over Florida State. However, they're just 7-11-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons off a conference win. Additionally, that victory came at home. On the road, the Tigers are 0-3, losing by 11 at UNC, by 23 at Georgia and by six at Minnesota. Including neutral site games, they're only 1-4 getting outscored by an average of 76 to 68.2. Coming off losses at Miami and at Pittsburgh, the Orange have also struggled on the road. However, they've been much better as the home team. The Orange won by 13 against the Tigers here last season. Motivated to avoid their first 0-3 conference start since the mid-90s, another double-digit won't surprise.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA.

The Tar Heels have won five straight in this series and they've won seven of the past eight here. Each of the last five meetings (all UNC wins) has been decided by at least four points. The Tar Heels won their last two visits here by five and six points, respectively. This year's UNC team can score points with the best of them; they're averaging 89 points over their past five. They turned up the defensive intensity in the second half last time out, rallying from a 9-point deficit. Leading scorer Johnson noted: "We just decided to get some stops and win. That was the biggest thing. We wanted to just stop, I mean we were scoring and doing what we needed to do. We just needed a couple of stops to get a win. And that's what we did." I believe The Tar Heels will build some positive momentum from that victory and that they'll again be too much for the Noles, who are off a 9-point loss at Clemson, to handle.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA.

The Utes bring the higher ranking into this evening's contest. However, I feel that the Bears are favored for good reason. The Bears haven't lost at home yet and they're chomping at the bit at the opportunity to take down a ranked opponent here. While the Utes have already done some good things (like beating Duke) they're also off a tough 70-68 OT loss at Stanford on Friday night, a game which saw them miss their final seven free throws (3 in OT) while committing 19 turnovers. I won't be surprised if they suffer negatively from that setback tonight. Cal, on the other hand, comes in off a momentum-building blowout of Colorado, its second straight double-digit victory and fourth straight cover.

10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA.

These teams both bring top 20 rankings into this evening's contest; each is very capable. I like how the Sooners match up against them though. Iowa State's biggest weakness is arguably defending the three-point shot (currently last in the Big 12 in that category) and that's a strength of the Oklahoma offense. The Sooners can get it done on the defensive end of the floor, too. Only two teams have shot better than 40% against them and teams are shooting only 35.6% (2nd best in the country) for the season.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on BYU.

The Gaels are off to an impressive start. However, they arguably haven't played as difficult a schedule as BYU. I expect their recent trip to the islands to provide the battle-tested Cougars with an edge. Yes, they did lose an OT game against Harvard. However, they bounced back by dominating New Mexico by 30 and then controlling a solid Northern Iowa team, en route to an 8-point win. While the teams have split the past six meetings, the three St. Mary's victories have come by an average of only 4.3 points, four of the six meetings being decided by seven or fewer points. Watching this one also going down to the wire won't surprise.

10* Best Bet

I'm playing on UTAH STATE.

While I'm generally not one to back too many road favorites, the Aggies have a number of advantages here. They're both the superior shooting and the superior rebounding team. While they may have handled "Life Pacific" last time out, this is not a good Spartans team. Their previous win came against "Antelope Valley." The Aggies had some trouble against the likes of Duke and BYU, going through a 4-game stretch where they went 0-4 at the betting window. That stretch has toughened them up for conference play though. Facing lesser opposition, they're off three straight double-digit wins. A blowout of North Dakota State (a team which is stronger than SJ State) last time out brought them to a profitable 26-12 ATS their last 38 when laying points. They've hammered this team for years and they won by 22 here last season. I see another double-digit win in the cards.

10* Personal Favorite