Sports Picks & Predictions

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. The Cavaliers had yesterday off while the Wolfpack were involved in a "warm up" game vs. Boston College. Having to play that extra game might hurt the Wolfpack if/when they advance further on in the tournament. However, I don't expect it to bother them today. In fact, it may well help. After all, yesterday's game wasn't exactly "taxing," as they won by double-digits. Prior to that, they hadn't played since Sunday. So, really, yesterday's game could be considered a good warm-up for today's much tougher opponent. The Wolfpack dominated yesterday's game. They led from wire-to-wire and won by 21. In fact, they didn't even allow a point for more than seven minutes and were up 14-0 out of the gate. C.J. Williams noted: "We got after them early. They run a Princeton-style offense, so we knew we had to get them out of their flow. We were able to create turnovers, and that led to our quick start." NC State is now 2-0-1 ATS its last three games, also beating Miami and losing by three at Clemson. I respect the Cavs. I won with them when they covered vs UNC recently. However, I also won by going against them in their last game; successfully backing Maryland. Less than 100% healthy, Virginia is now 2-4-1 ATS its last seven games, 0-2 ATS its last two. Note that the Cavs have seen four straight games decided by three or fewer points. Speaking of "close games," these teams saw this season's regular season meeting finish with a score of 61-60. That has the Wolfpack thinking "payback." After yesterday's win, NC State's C.J. Leslie had this to say of the Cavaliers: We might of let the first game against Virginia slip away. This is a good chance to get back at them. We must win this tomorrow." He went on to say: "Virginia is the type of team that will be in every game because of the way they play defense. We have to get after them from the tip, just like we did today." The Cavs are 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they were a neutral court favorites of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the Wolfpack are 9-3 SU/ATS as neutral court underdogs of three or fewer points, going 3-0 SU/ATS their last three. With yesterday's win, the Wolfpack are now a terrific 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 conference tournament games. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I expect at least another cover here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. While it appears likely that the Cyclones will close as favorites, it was the Longhorns who opened as very slight favorites, which was the case when I released them as a play. (That means they can qualify as one of my "Personal Favorite" plays.) While the line indicates a potentially close game, I expect the Longhorns to be a little more "hungry" and look for them to be the team which comes away with an important victory. I actually had a big play on the Cyclones in their last game. However, that was at home vs. Baylor. As I noted at the time, the Cyclones are an outstanding team at home but not nearly as good on the road. They're 16-2 when listed as the home team but only 6-7 on the road. Not surprisingly, given Iowa State's home/road record, these teams split the regular season meetings, each team winning on its home floor. Texas, however, has won eight of the last nine meetings. The Longhorns are 12-4 vs. Iowa State under Rick Barnes. While I do feel that these teams are fairly equal, I believe that the Longhorns' edge lies in the motivation department. The Cyclones WANT to win. However, they probably don't NEED to, as they're already likely "going dancing." The big win over Baylor and recent hot streak may have them patting themselves on the back a bit. On the the hand, the Longhorns may well need to win another game (or two) to get in. Considering that they've been to 13 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, that's a streak they badly want to keep active. Coach Barnes had this to say: "Do we have to win another game? I don't want to win just one. I want to win again and again." Losing forward Alexis Wangmene to injury was indeed a bit of a blow to the Longhorns. However, he only averaged 4.6 points and 4.7 rebounds. So, its not a loss they aren't capable of overcoming. In the end, I look for the Longhorns to be a little more determined and for that to lead to an extremely important victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IDAHO. The Warriors have been struggling lately. Since winning four of five to start February, they've now lost five straight games. They're an ugly 0-4-1 ATS in those games, too. There are some cases where I might look to back a team which has failed to cover several times in a row. This isn't one of them though. The Warriors haven't been very good away from the Island. They're only 4-8 on the road - and one of those games came at Hilo, which I watched while vacationing on the Big Island. So, they didn't have to leave Hawaii for that one, instead only taking a 20 minute flight from one island to another. The Warriors are also off a heart-breaking loss (at Honolulu) in their last game. In a "wild" game, they eventually lost by a single point, 61-60 vs. Utah St. The Aggies hit the go-ahead basket with seven seconds left. That type of loss cane be difficult to bounce back from. It becomes even more difficult when a team is playing with arguably its best player. That'll be the case for the Warriors here, as they'll be without Zane Johnson. The senior guard is tied for the team lead with 14 points per game. He's and 84% free throw shooter and has made more 3-pointers than the rest of the Warriors combined. Without Johnson in the lineup for Hawaii, Idaho arguably has the better offense. They also have the better defense. The Vandals allow 67 points per game, 69.4 on the road. The Warriors allow 74.2 per game and that number climbs all the way to 78.5 on the road. Over their last five games, the Warriors have allowed opposing teams to hit better than 52% of their shots, while averaging 87.2 points. Trying to fix those defensive deficiencies, off the heartbreaking weekend loss, will not be easy. The Vandals just crushed these same Warriors by 19 points, at Hawaii. They've won seven of eight, going 6-1 ATS in the seven lined games. I expect them to keep rolling. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Georgetown comes in with the higher ranking and off a win yesterday. However, the Bearcats had yesterday off and are playing their best basketball of the season. While it seems many are backing the favored Hoyas, I expect an upset. On one hand, having yesterday off, as opposed to playing like Georgetown did, isn't necessarily a huge benefit for the Bearcats in this game. After all, prior to yesterday's game, the Hoyas had several days off, having not played since 3/3. However, I do feel it helps Cincinnati in another, perhaps more important way; the "confidence department." The time off, combined with the fact that they've been rolling, has the Bearcats believing that they might actually win the tournament this season. Or, at least that they have a legit chance of doing so. Coach Cronin had this to say of the double bye: "I think our players would probably say you think you have a chance to win it when you only have to play three games. It's tough when you know the other teams only have to play three, and you have to play four or five - not to say someone's not going to win it playing four or five. Only playing three gives them a realistic chance of winning the thing, instead of just trying to get to Friday night." Senior guard Dion Dixon added: "I think it's different. We've had a better year. You go in there with great expectations." The Bearcats are even breaking out new uniforms, prompting guard Sean Kilpatrick to note: "It's a new look, especially going into the Big East tournament. You want to feel refreshed and everything going in. I think the new uniforms will give us a new attitude." While the Bearcats did struggle at the beginning of the season, things started changing after the fight with Xavier. Keep in mind that this team was ranked #21 heading into the season. They won at Villanova last time out and beat a good Marquette team by double-digits before that. I backed them in that game and noted that they were already rolling before that. They're now 5-1 SU/ATS their last six and the lone loss came on the road and by a single point. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings in this series, including a 68-64 decision on Jan. 9 in Washington. The Bearcats have never been to the semi-final round of the Big East Championship, so winning here is a "big deal" to them. They're 5-3 ATS as underdogs and 6-4 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OREGON STATE. The Cougars won both regular season meetings and check in with the slightly higher seed. I believe that the Beavers are favored for good reason though. The Beavers outscored opposing teams by a 79.6 to 72.8 margin this season. The Cougars, on the other hand, outscored teams by a 68.3 to 66.2 margin. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three in the conference tournament. The Cougars are 1-3-1 ATS their last five on a neutral court. Their lone neutral court ATS win (and Oregon State's lone ATS loss on a neutral court) came when these two teams faced each other at Spokane, on New Year's Eve. So, while it was defined that way, that wasn't exactly a "neutral" site. The Cougars still had Faisal Aden for that 12/31 game, although he didn't do all that much. Still, considering that he averaged 14.5 points per game and was a team best 89% free throw shooter, the fact that he's now out should be noted. With the Cougars having lost their best player (Klay Thompson 21.6 ppg) and also DeAngelo Casto (12.6 ppg) from last year, Aden was expected to be a big part of this team. Oregon State's Jared Cunningham will arguably be the best player on the floor. Not only does he average 18.6 ppg and make First Team All Conference, he also made the All Defensive team for the second straight season. The Cougars won last time out. They still only scored 43 points though - the win came vs. USC, the worst team in the conference. Prior to that, they'd lost four of five. The Beavers have "revenge" on their minds and they are quietly feeling confident. They're off back to back double-digit wins, most recently a 83-69 beatdown of Colorado. Coach Craig Robinson had this to say: "We are looking forward to going down for the (Pac-12) tournament. We've had a good couple of days of practice that followed a good weekend of games. I don't think there's much change to our game plan. We are going to try and keep the way we've been playing -- sharing the ball, great defense and see what happens." When asked about the fact that the Cougars beat them in both meetings, Robinson responded: "I don't have to remind them at all. We watched the tape and they know exactly how poorly we played. But I maintain we are a different team, even from that last game, which was about a month ago. We are such a different team right now that I am less concerned about how we played then and more concerned about keeping going what we've done recently. I think our defense is completely different. Our defensive effort is completely different. I think we are back to sort of playing that free-flowing, sharing the ball offense that we did earlier in the season." I feel the Beavers are currently the better team and I look for them to show it here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UConn and West Virginia to finish UNDER the total. I won with the Huskies "over" the total in yesterday's opener vs. Depaul. However, a game against the Blue Demons is an entirely different matter from a game against the Mountaineers. As I pointed out yesterday, not only do the Blue Demons allow the most points in the entire Big East (by far) but they also score the third most. Overall, their games averaged more points than any other team in the conference this season. As noted, the Mountaineers are a different type of beast. While Depaul allows 76.6 points per game, WVU allows just 66. Note that the Huskies are even better, they're allowing only 64.1 per game. With the exception of a high-scoring game against Depaul on 2/28 - and we already talked about what type of team the Blue Demons are - the Mountaineers have been playing extremely low-scoring games in recent weeks. In fact, excluding the Depaul game, each of their last four games have stayed below the total. On 2/16, the Mountaineers limited Pittsburgh to only 48 points, a 66-48 victory. Next, they lost 71-44 at Notre Dame (they had lost 55-51 vs. those same Irish two weeks earlier) which was followed by a 61-60 loss vs. high-scoring Marquette. Last time out, the Mountaineers limited USF to a mere 44 points, a 50-44 victory. So, thats 114, 115, 121 and 94 points their last four games, excluding Depual, the worst defensive team in the conference. Looking at the recent history between these teams and we find that the games have been all about defense. This season's lone meeting finished with 121 points, a 64-57 win for the Huskies. Going back further finds that all four meetings since 2009 have stayed below the total. The other three games had combined scores of 121, 135 and 116. The Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 4-0 their last four conference tournament games and 11-3-1 the last 15 times that they were listed as underdogs. Assuming we can avoid OT, I expect those stats to improve here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MONTANA. The Grizzlies are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel that number could easily be higher. I'm expecting a double-digit blowout. These teams met once in the regular season. That was at Eastern Washington and Montana still won by 14. While the Eagles would obviously love to avenge that loss, "revenge" generally isn't a factor when a team doesn't really believe it can win. In this case, the Eagles likely realize they're in over their heads. The Grizzlies have won 12 straight and 18 of their last 19. Last time out, they beat Weber State, a team with a 23-5 record, by 15 points. Each of their last four victories have come by double-digits. The Eagles are off back-to-back victories. Those both came against Idaho State though, a team with a 9-21 record. This is still a sub-500 team, one which has a 6-12 record away from home. Also, note that they're an ugly 1-7 ATS when off a conference victory, 1-4 ATS after topping the 80 point mark in their previous game. The Grizzlies have the advantage of playing this one at the Dahlberg Arena, where they've been outstanding. As far as the high line, note that Montana is 14-4 ATS the last 18 times it was a home favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range, going 7-1 ATS their last eight in that role. Even with their great record, the Grizzlies know that an "at large bid" to the Big Dance is not in their favor. That means that they have to take care of business in this tournament and can't afford a letdown against this inferior opponent. Expect a blowout. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST MARYS. Admittedly, Gonzaga was more impressive last game. The Bulldogs beat up on BYU. St. Mary's won but didn't cover vs. San Francisco. Those results have helped up as they've been one of the factors causing the line to climb from its opener. I feel thats providing us with excellent value with the underdog Gaels. While Gonzaga may have been better on Saturday, lets not forget that it was St. Mary's which finished on top of the conference this regular season. The Gaels finished with 26 wins. Also, Gonzaga being "more impressive" on Saturday doesn't concern me. The Gaels had already beaten SF twice during the season and they were playing the Dons for the second straight game. They probably took the game for granted a bit. Meanwhile, having split the season series with BYU, Gonzaga knew it was going to have to be at its best. (It should also be noted that St. Mary's pounded BYU in both meetings - a pair of double-digit wins, coming by 14 and 21 points.) Both teams have done enough that they will be making it to the Big Dance. That shouldn't make for any less intensity though as these are bitter rivals which dislike each other. I expect the Gaels to be a little more "hungry" though. They've never won both the regular season title and the conference title in the same season and that's a goal they'd really like to achieve. While both of this season's meetings were won convincingly by the home team, I won't be surprised if the rubber match on a neutral court comes down to the wire. Note that two of last season's meetings were decided by four or fewer points, one of them by just two. The Bulldogs are 3-5 ATS when playing with one or fewer day's rest in between games. The Gaels are 7-3 ATS (in lined games) when doing so. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Toledo has the better record and is playing at home. Yet, the Rockets opened as only very slight favorites. That will likely have many quick to back the home team; we've already seen the line climb from its opener. I feel that the number was low for good reason though. I feel the RedHawks, who played a far tougher schedule, are arguably the more talented team. This is their chance to show they're better than the record indicates. Despite the poor overall record, the RedHawks were a respectable 8-6 ATS in road lined games this season. They were also a solid 9-5 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record. In addition to facing the likes of Ohio and Kent State on the road in conference play, note that the RedHawks have played on the road at venues like Cincinnati, Ohio State and Vanderbilt. They won't be intimidated by a trip to Toledo. Playing at home, Miami Ohio fell behind out of the gate when these teams met in the regular season. The RedHawks did fight hard the entire way, losing by two. Last year's game was also decided by two points, a 68-66 victory for Miami Ohio, here at Toledo. With four of Toledo's last eight games having been decided by four or fewer points, don't be surprised if this one also comes down to the final possession. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. These teams faced each other at Virginia on 2/18. That game was tied at halftime. However, the Cavaliers crushed the Terrapins in the second half, winning 71-44. That has the Terps in "revenge" mode here, a role which has seen them fare well. Playing their final regular season home game, I expect them to deliver their best effort. The Cavs have had a great season. They've lost two in a row (and four of six) though and they know they've got bigger games ahead. The Cavs do play very stingy defense. However, the offense is hardly dominant. Their 62.6 points per game is the third lowest in the ACC. That number dips to 59.7 on the road. That can make covering a pointspread on the road difficult. Note that Virginia is only 4-8 ATS its last 12 as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Terps have lost two in a row, those games came on the road. They beat Miami by five in their last game here. Prior to that, they crushed Boston College by 16 here. Their only two home losses since November have come against Duke and North Carolina. The Terps are 15-6 SU and 12-7-2 ATS the last 21 times that they were off a conference loss. During that time, they're also 10-5 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. This is a "border rival" and the loss at Virginia was the Terps worst of the season. On Senior Day, they step up and give the Cavs all they can handle, this time for both halves. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IONA. The Gaels are the top team in this conference and they're on a mission. After they beat these same Stags to clinch the MAAC regular-season title, Iona's Sean Armand had this to say: "There's nothing to celebrate. We did what we were supposed to do, we were preseason No. 1. We felt like we should be No. 1 and that

Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. I won with the Wildcats last time out. That was a home game against Georgia though. While the Wildcats are certainly capable of beating any team in the country, they're now stepping up significantly in class while also traveling to hostile territory. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. The Wildcats did beat up on Georgia. However, they're only 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record and they're still 1-3 ATS their last four. Its true that the Wildcats are trying to become just the third team since 1956 to go unbeaten in the SEC. That should provide some motivation. However, the fact is that the Wildcats have bigger games ahead and they should already be a lock for a #1 seed in the tournament. The Gators have plenty of motivation. Stopping the Wildcats from going undefeated, improving their positioning, avenging a blowout loss at Kentucky, winning on Senior Day, bouncing back from a loss. All those factors should make for a hungry Florida team. The Gators are 14-1 at home this season. The lone loss here came by five points. They're also 15-9-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were getting points. While they've failed to cover three in a row, they're an outstanding 6-0 SU the last six times that they'd failed to cover three straight going 25-6 SU (19-8 ATS) their last 31 in that situation. The last meeting on this floor was decided by just two points, a 70-68 Florida win on 2/5. I won't be surprised if this one also comes right down to the wire and will gladly grab the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on IOWA STATE. Some are likely going to see this line and wonder why the Cyclones have opened as (slight) favorites. After all, Baylor is a very good team. (The #9 ranked Bears bring a 25-5 record into today's action.) Iowa State is better than many realize though, at least when playing here at home. I feel the Cyclones are favored for good reason and I look for them to earn an important win on their home floor. I successfully backed the Bears when these teams met at Baylor, on 2/13. Laying -8.5, Baylor won by a score of 79-64. Here's an excerpt from that report: "I've been avoiding playing on the Bears. Good thing too. They're 0-5 ATS their last five, 1-7 ATS their last eight and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. All those pointspread losses are working in our favor though. Many lost with Baylor again on Saturday and are less willing to back the Bears here as a result. That's kept this line to single-digits. As I expect a big win, I feel that relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off two straight blowout losses, the Bears figure to be in a foul mood. In their defense, those losses came at Missouri and vs. Kansas. Lets not forget that prior to those losses, the Bears had won four straight. They're still 21-4 on the season and Missouri and Kansas are the only two teams which have defeated them. A big win tonight would really help the Bears confidence and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way. Iowa State is a solid enough team, one which has been on a nice ATS run. That said, the Cyclones are not in the same class as Missouri or Kansas. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City. The Bears have already swept those same Cowboys, winning by 45 combined points. The Bears are 5-0 against the Cyclones here at Waco, dating back to 2000. Laying -11.5, they beat them by a score of 84-63 here last season. They're still 4-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, after failing to cover three straight games. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing fashion." As noted, the Bears were struggling at the time and the game was at Waco, where Baylor has dominated the Cyclones. Things set up differently here. The Bears are off a big win and cover and have won three straight - that's helped in terms of line value - as the Cyclones could actually be larger favorites. (Note that Baylor is only 3-7-1 ATS when off a conference victory.) More importantly, the game is now being played at Ames rather than Waco. Not only are the Cyclones an entirely different team here (15-2 home, 6-7 road) but they've also dominated Baylor here. In fact, they're 9-0 their last nine against the Bears here. Lets not forget that Iowa State beat Kansas on this floor, in addition to teams like Texas and Kansas State. The Cyclones are 4-1 SU/ATS off a conference loss. They're 6-0 ATS their last six games played in March and they're a commanding 21-3-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were listed as home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. They've gone 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record and I look for them to step up and rise to the occasion another time here. *10 (Personal Favorite.)

Reason: I'm playing on IOWA. The Hawkeyes check in at an impressive 10-3 ATS in home lined games. I expect them to improve on those stats here. While the Wildcats have the slightly better overall record, Iowa's home record is far superior to Northwestern's record on the road. The Wildcats are 3-7 on the road. Iowa is 13-5 at home. The Hawkeyes have plenty of motivation. Not only is their regular season home finale but the Wildcats hammered them at Northwestern last month. After that 83-64 loss on Feb. 9th, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery called his team "soft." Needless to say, he'll be demanding a better effort here. Both teams are off losses. The Hawkeyes lost on the road against a determined Illinois team. They did fight hard but were down early. I wouldn't describe it as a particularly "heart-breaking" loss. On the other hand, the Wildcats are off a "heartbreaker." They've had a number of tough losses this season and Wednesday was another one. Facing #10 Ohio State, the Wildcats left it all on the floor. In fact, they battled all the way back from a 13-point deficit to tie the Buckeyes with seven seconds left in the game. However, their comeback was all for naught, as OSU's Jared Sullinger beat them with two seconds left. That type of devastating loss can be tough to bounce back from. I expect that to be the case here. Note that Northwestern is only 5-10 SU/ATS its last 15 as a road underdog of three or fewer points. With senior guard Matt Gatens, who will be playing his final regular season game in an Iowa uniform, leading the way, I expect the revenge-minded Wildcats to be at their best. *10 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. As you know, the Bulldogs have been a regular in the Big Dance in recent years. I won't be surprised if they get knocked out of their own tourney tonight though. Butler opened as the slight favorite and the line climbed from its opener. Many can't imagine the Bulldogs losing, now that it really matters. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the Panthers though, a team which finished with 20 wins and a better record than Butler overall. The Bulldogs were just 7-11-1 ATS when laying points this season. The Panthers were 5-3-2 ATS as underdogs. While we know that Butler has enjoyed a great record in neutral court games, note that the Panthers are also 5-2-1 ATS their last eight on a neutral court, going 4-2 SU/ATS their last six conference tournament games. Note that Wisconsin-Milwaukee only allows 61.6 points per game and that Butler is only 4-9-2 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer ppg. The Panthers are peaking at the right time. They enter today's game off five straight victories, one of them over Cleveland State. In addition to playing stout defense, they've been on fire from beyond the arc for weeks. In addition to pounding the Bulldogs at home, the Panthers also played the Bulldogs tough at Butler. Listed as +4 point underdogs, they lost that one by only four. They're playing better basketball now, are playing on a "neutral" court and yet are getting very nearly as many points. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'll gladly take the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I backed the Wildcats (against Arkansas) the last time that they ended an ATS losing streak, back in mid January. They'd failed to cover several in a row, which had helped to bring the line down a little lower than it could have been. I felt the Wildcats were "ready to blow somebody out" and they were. Laying about -16, they won by 23. Kentucky then proceeded to have a profitable run at the betting window before cooling off recently. Having again failed to cover a few in a row and now playing their regular season home finale, I feel the Wildcats are again ready to deliver a blowout of more than 20 points. While the Wildcats are perfect at home, Georgia is 3-9 on the road. The Bulldogs shoot only 37.4% away from home, scoring a mere 58.3 points. That's hardly going to cut it against a Kentucky team which averages 82.2 here at home, shooting 49.5%. Not only are they up against one of the best teams in the country, I feel that this is a tough spot for the Bulldogs. They're off an upset win last time out and they've got their home finale coming up on Saturday, which happens to be a "revenge game" against South Carolina, a team which recently beat them by a single point. Given that situation, it may be easy to "pack this one in," seeing as they already know they're highly unlikely to win here. While the Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS (1-8 SU) the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s, the Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. The Wildcats already won and covered at Georgia. I expect more of the same here at home. *10 (Blue Marlin)

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Yesterday, I backed an unranked Cincinnati team which was playing a red hot ranked opponent. The Bearcats rewarded me with a convincing victory. I'm playing on the Illini, also an unranked team facing a ranked one, for a few of the sam reasons that I played Cincy yesterday. Like the Bearcats, the Illini are very slight home favorites. Like the Bearcats, the Illini are playing their regular season home finale. Like the Bearcats, the Illini have had to overcome some adversity. Also, like the Bearcats, the Illini will be playing with "revenge," having already lost an earlier road game against this evening's opponent. They may not win quite as "easily" as Cincinnati did yesterday but I do look for the Illini to match the Bearcats where it counts, in the win column. Yes, the Illini struggled in February. Howevery, they snapped their skid with a solid win and cover last time out, giving them confidence coming in. Lets not forget that this team has beaten three ranked teams (Gonzaga, Ohio State and Michigan State) already this season. Lets also keep in mind that the Illini are fighting for their postseason lives and that a win over Michigan would be huge for them. Illinois coach Bruce Weber had this to say:

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Golden Eagles are on a red hot roll and come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Bearcats are favored (slightly) for good reason. While Marquette's 24 victories are certainly impressive, Cincinnati's got 20 of its own. The Bearcats have been very tough at home and have won four straight here. Last time on this floor, they knocked off Louisville. Earlier they pounded Notre Dame by double-digits here. In addition to its strong homecourt play, the Bearcats have road wins at venues like Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Georgetown, to name a few. In other words, they won't be intimated by Marquette. Playing their home finale and playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Marquette, the Bearcats figure to be extremely motivated here. Note that the Bearcats are 4-1 the last five times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. Marquette has its home finale on deck. That happens to come against Georgetown, one of just five teams to beat the Golden Eagles this season. On a big run and with that game on deck, I won't be surprised if the Golden Eagles experience a bit of a letdown here. Note that the Golden Eagles have already clinched a "double-bye" in the Big East Tournament and that even if they lose here, they can still clinch the #2 seed by winning their final game. The Bearcats are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WYOMING. I like how this one sets up for the home team. After losing four straight, the Cowboys got back last time out. They beat Boise State by double-digits, covering as -7 point favorites. Playing their final home game of the year, playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss AND knowing that they've got a very tough road game (UNLV) on deck, I expect the Cowboys to be extremely motivated here. A look at the recent 4-game skid shows that three of those games were on the road. Not surprising. Like every other team in the Mountain West, the Cowboys are MUCH better at home. While just 5-6 in away games, the Cowboys are 14-3 at home. The disparity is even bigger for the Horned Frogs. TCU is 13-2 at home but 4-9 on the road. The Frogs have admittedly been playing fairly well of late and enter on a nice ATS run. However, as you can guess from the above road record, most of their recent success has come at home. They eked out a rare win in their last road game. However, that was at Air Force and the Falcons have the fewest home wins of any team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Frogs had lost seven straight on the road. Note that the Frogs' regular season finale comes next. It comes at home (vs. SD State) and they'll be the ones playing with "revenge" in that one. Also, note that the Frogs' recent success at the betting window has helped to keep this line down. It could easily be higher, particularly when considering that Wyoming was laying -4 points when the teams met at TCU, at the beginning of this month. In addition to being a very poor road team, note that the Frogs are only 20-40 SU and 24-34-2 ATS their last 60 game against teams with a winning record. TCU does score a few more points than Wyoming. However, the Cowboys have a commanding advantage on the other side of the ball. While the Frogs allow 75.2 points per game on the road, the Cowboys allow an average of only 52.8 at home. While the Frogs are 0-5 SU the last five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s, the Cowboys are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. They beat the Frogs by 10 here last season and are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings here. I expect another double-diigt victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Kansas and Oklahoma State to finish UNDER the total. You probably saw that the Jayhawks are off a wild (and high-scoring) 87-86 victory on Saturday. That came against the highest-scoring team in the conference (Missouri) though and the final score also included 23 overtime points. This evening's game is unlikely to go to OT and the Jayhawks will now be facing the third lowest-scoring team in the conference. Not surprisingly, I'm expecting a MUCH lower-scoring affair. While they won the game, the 86 points allowed was the most the Jayhawks have given up all season. I expect them to be motivated to clamp down defensively here and bounce back with a big effort on that side of the ball. The fact that Saturday's game came at home and this one is on the road is significant. Including that result, the "over" is now 8-5 when Kansas has played at home. However, road games have been a different story. In fact, the UNDER is 8-1 in the Jayhawks' road lined games. That includes a 4-0 UNDER mark when they've played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. It should also be noted that Kansas has seen the UNDER go 5-1 when playing with one day or less worth of rest in between games. Just as the Jayhawks have been a profitable "under" team on the road, the same can be said for the Cowboys at home. Games here are averaging 132.3 points and the UNDER is 8-4. Note that the Cowboys have seen the UNDER go 7-4 the last 11 times that they played with one or fewer day's rest, 41-21 the last 62. This O/U line is actually slightly higher than was the O/U line for the meeting at Kansas. I feel that's providing us with excellent value and I expect the UNDER to improve to 6-3 the last nine times that the Cowboys attempted to avenge an earlier loss. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OREGON STATE. Some may be surprised that the Beavers are favored over the Ducks here. After all, Oregon has the superior record, is the hotter team and is playing with "revenge." I feel the Beavers are favored for good reason though. With their 76-71 victory over at Oregon, the Beavers have now beaten the Ducks 184 times, that's the second-most wins against a single team in NCAA history. While the Ducks would love to avenge the earlier setback, they're just 3-14 SU (6-10-1 ATS) the last 17 times that that they attempted to avenge a home loss. The Beavers figure to be every bit as motivated, if not more so. Not only would they love to sweep their rivals, (Oregon swept them last year) they'd also desperately like to snap their current skid. Oregon State coach Craig Robinson had this to say on the team snapping its streak and on how the team had been practicing: "...We have had a good week of practice. We have been working hard and trying to figure out how to end this skid. I like the way the guys have been playing in practice and I think that it comes down to defending and rebounding. I think that if we can defend and rebound well, we will be in a good position to win the game." While they do give up a fair number of points, the Beavers know a thing or two about good defense. Oregon State has fewer turnovers than its opponent in 21 of their 27 games this season and is second in the Pac-12 with a +3.6 turnover margin. In fact, the Beavers have forced a Pac-12 best 476 turnovers (17.6 per game) this season, including 20 or more turnovers in nine games. The Beavers are 10-4 at home, outscoring opponents by a 84.6 to 71.1 margin here. They shoot 49.4% on this floor. Visiting teams have shot only 43.7%. The Ducks are 6-5 on the road. The Ducks are 3-9 ATS the past few seasons when playing with five or six day's rest, the Beavers are 4-1 ATS when playing with seven or more. The Beavers have been excellent as small home favorites. They're 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were off three or more consecutive pointspread losses and 7-2 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were off three or more consecutive SU losses. I expect them to bounce back in a big way. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on RIDER. *10 These teams both covered the spread on Friday. However, they did so in different fashion. Playing a very big game vs. Iona, the top team in the MAAC, Fairfield blew a lead and eventually lost. Meanwhile, playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss, Rider won outright as an underdog vs. Loyola Maryland, a solid team which is currently tied with Fairfield in the standings. That victory clinched a first round bye in the tournament and the fifth seed for Rider. I don't expect the Broncs to "take it easy" or have a "letdown" though. This is their final home game and they know Fairfield is still playing for positioning. They also know that the Stags beat them earlier, so will again be playing with revenge. Additionally, having just snapped a losing streak, the Broncs also want to keep the positive momentum going and head into the tournament on a winning note. The loss at Iona wasn't unexpected. However, it still figures to take a toll. The Stags could have still had a shot at first in the conference if they'd won that one and coming so close to doing so, only to fall short, figures to be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Stats are just 1-3 ATS the last four times they were off a conference loss, 8-14 ATS the past few seasons when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Also, note that Fairfield's Desmond Wade is listed as questionable while Derek Needham is expected to be out. (Needham leads the team in assists and scores 11.8 points per game, so his loss is significant.) Additionally, note that the Stags are playing their fourth straight road game here, all of them coming since last Sunday. That's a tough stretch, one made tougher by the fact that the last game was such a "big" one. This is the only time all season that the Stags will have played four straight "true" road games. They were just 2-4 ATS after playing three or more consecutive road games the past few seasons. With a total in the high 130s, note that the Stags are just 3-6-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Meanwhile, the Broncs are 6-1 ATS when they've played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Rider covered the spread at Fairfield and I expect at least another cover here. Line move in our favor provides additional value. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The boxscore shows that Syracuse blew out the Huskies in the first meeting. However, the fact is that game was very close the whole way, before the Orange pulled away at the end. Off a momentum-buidling victory, now playing at home and desperate for a "signature win," I expect the Huskies to give the Orange all they can handle again, this time doing so for the entire game. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim knows this likely won't be easy. He was quoted as saying: "Connecticut played us evenly for almost the whole game here and then we had a spurt at the end so we know how difficult they can be, it was a two-point game here. I still think they

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Bulldogs have the slightly better overall record and they beat Alabama already this season. However, I feel the Tide are the stronger team and believe that they're favored for good reason here. In fact, given the venue and the way the two teams are currently playing, I feel the line could easily be higher. The earlier meeting was at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs, who won that one by a score of 56-52, are 15-3 at home. However, they're only 4-6 away from home, going 2-5 SU/ATS in "true" road games, 1-5 SU/ATS in 2012. The loss at Mississippi State started a 4-game slide for the Tide. Alabama is back in the groove again now though; its last two games (vs. Tennessee and at Arkansas) both resulted in double-digit victories. The recent suspensions handed out seemingly did this team some good. They're expected to have JaMychal Green back today, as he's been reinstated. While the Tide are starting to roll, the Bulldogs are currently going through a tough stretch. In fact, they've lost four straight. Losing at home vs. Kentucky wasn't so bad. However, their previous three losses came against Auburn, LSU and Georgia. None of those teams have a record as good as Alabama. Note that Rodney Hood was injured last game and that he's currently listed as doubtful. Note that the Bulldogs may have covered vs. Kentucky (still lost by 9) but that they haven't covered the spread twice in a row this entire year. They're 0-4 ATS off a cover in 2012. Overall, they're 4-10 ATS dating back to New Year's Eve. The Tide have won 30 of their last 33 in this building. With this one on ESPN and being a "big game" and being their second to last home game, Coleman Coliseum will surely be rocking. They've dominated the Bulldogs here, including a 14 point win (as a -12 point favorite) here last season. The Tide are 10-6 the last 16 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. They're playing better than the Bulldogs right now and with the support of their energetic home crowd helping them, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Tar Heels beat up on the Cavaliers at North Carolina. I expect a vastly different result this afternoon. The Cavs are a different team here. They're 21-6 overall but 13-1 here at home. That's better than North Carolina's 6-2 mark on the road. Dominant defense has been the key to Virginia's success at home. The Cavs rank second in the entire country allowing a mere 48.2 points per game here. Visiting teams are shooting only 36.7 percent here. In their last game here, the Cavs crushed Maryland by a score of 71-44. Note that UNC is only 8-13 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game, in the second half of the season. Off the blowout win against the Terps, the Cavs proceeded to avenge their lone home loss, going on the road and beating V-Tech. Note that they're also 2-0 ATS the last two times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Playing with revenge and with a chance to earn a win against the mighty Tar Heels, I expect Virginia to be the "hungrier" team. It likely won't be easy but I feel this team has what it takes to score the upset and I look for them to do just that. *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Golden Eagles have the much better overall record and the much higher ranking. The Golden Eagles have NEVER won here at Morgantown though and they'll be facing what should be a desperate and determined Mountaineers squad. The Mountaineers got embarrassed at Notre Dame last time out. Down two at halftime, they got blown out in the second half, en route to a 71-44 setback. Note that the Mountaineers, who had won 66-48 at Pittsburgh in the previous game, are 3-1 the last four times that they were off a game in which they scored 60 or fewer points. They're 9-4 in that situation the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Mountaineers were 14-6 when off a conference loss and 36-8 at home overall. That includes a perfect 3-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. As tough as the Golden Eagles have been overall and recently, note that they've still won just five of nine road games overall. In fact, they're below .500 (14-16) on the road the past few seasons. True, the Golden Eagles are trying to wrap up a "double-bye" in the Big East tournament. However, they've already clinched the first bye and will likely get the second, even if they lose here. On the other hand, the Mountaineers, who have dropped three straight here, desperately need a home win - and having it come vs. a ranked opponent would make things even sweeter. The Mountaineers haven't lost four home games in a row since the 2002/2003 season. I don't expect it to happen here tonight. I expect them to bring their A-Game and for that to lead to the big home win that they desperately need. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. Obviously, the Tar Heels are a talented and dangerous team. I expect them to have their hands full tonight though. While the Tar Heels are certainly capable of blowing out any team, on any given night, this typically isn't one of their best roles. They're only 7-10 ATS the last 17 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Tar Heels really haven't played many games off their home court in recent months. In fact, they've only played six games away from home (5 road games, 1 neutral) since 11/26. Three of those resulted in outright losses and two of them were single-digit wins. During that stretch, the only team they beat by double-digits on the road was Wake Forest and they didn't even cover the spread in that one. (Laying -16.5, they won by 15.) Perhaps looking ahead to this big game, the Wolfpack didn't play well vs. Florida State on Saturday. They nearly won at Duke before that though, losing by only five. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Note that the loss vs. Duke was NC State's fourth loss by seven or fewer points. They lost a neutral court game by seven vs. Vanderbilt, lost by four at Stanford and by one vs. Virginia. So, not only could the record easily be better but the points could easily come into play here. Off Saturday's loss NC State coach Mark Gottfried had this to say: "We have to accept the fact that if you want to play in the greatest show on Earth, then you better toughen up and you better man up, pal. There is no other way to look at it. Teams that get to play in March are mentally tough enough to withstand most things, and they fight their way through it.

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Bears last Monday. However, I'm going against them here. The Bears are certainly a strong team, as indicated by their high national ranking. That said, they haven't been at their best for some time. Even with last Monday's big win over the Cyclones, they're still a dismal 2-8 ATS their last 10 games. A closer look shows that the Bears lost three of their last four outright, most recently a 1-point setback vs. K-State on Saturday. While the Bears surely want to immediately bounce back, those type of close losses are often tough to immediately recover from. They're still in the tournament regardless what they do here and they've also got a pair of relatively easy games (home games vs. Oklahoma and Texas Tech) following this one. So, even another loss here won't be the end of the world. Knowing they'll be heavily favored in each of their next two games, it may be easier to wait to "bounce back" until next game. There's no waiting for the Longhorns though, as the time is now. The Longhorns have made it to the NCAA Tournament in all 13 of Rick Barnes' years as coach. Only five other schools have done that, during the same span. That streak is in jeopardy though, making this game huge. A 'signature win" here would surely go a long way in locking up a 14th straight trip to the Dance. Not that they should need any added motivation, but its also worth noting that the Longhorns lost a close one (76-71) at Waco earlier. So, they're playing with 'revenge' here, potentially adding to their "hunger." While they've had some trouble on the road, the Longhorns are an outstanding 14-2 here at home. Their only two losses came vs. Missouri and Kansas - teams which are both 2-0 vs. Baylor - and those two losses came by only four combined points. With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that Texas is a lucrative 17-8 ATS (20-5 SU) the last 25 times it played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark at home when the line ranged from the 135 to 139.5. On the other hand, Baylor is an awful 2-9 ATS the last 11 times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, going 0-11 SU in those games. (In other words, one would be 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS if going against the Bears the L11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in that range.) Over Barnes' career here, the Longhorns are a commanding 12-1 at home against the Bears. They won by nine here last season. Desperate for a "signature win" and looking to avenge the earlier loss, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PURDUE. This line has climbed since it first came out. I believe that's giving us excellent value with the revenge-minded and desperate home team. The Spartans are certainly rolling. However, they're now in the middle of a very tough stretch. Coach Izzo knows they can't take anything for granted. He was quoted as saying: "There are a lot of concerns. We've got four more quick turnarounds..." The Boilermakers come in "short-handed," having suspended a couple of players. Off a "wounded" animal can be a dangerous one - and I expect them the remaining players to respond positively to the situation and elevate their game. The Boilermakers are desperate for a "signature victory" to give them a legit shot at getting invited to the Big Dance. This would certainly qualify. Throw in the fact that the Spartans embarrassed them at East Lansing and this should indeed be an extremely motivated Boilermakers' squad. The Spartans are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range. Meanwhile, Purdue is 6-2 ATS its last eight as an underdog, going 11-6 ATS its last 17. I expect those stats to improve here as the Boilermakers give their guests all they can handle, and then some. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Irish are having a great season and have the much better overall record. I have a feeling they're ripe for a letdown here though. Notre Dame just moved into the Top 25 Monday and proceeded to thump Rutgers. Having now "legitimized" their ranking and having won seven straight, the Irish figure to be feeling pretty good about themselves. With a rematch vs. West Virginia on deck, they could easily overlook a struggling and banged-up Villanova team. Note that Notre Dame is only 2-4-1 ATS when listed as a favorite. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Irish are only 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. Winning on the road in the Big East is rarely easy. Lets also remember that this is still a well-coached and dangerous Villanova squad. Even if they don't have Maalik Wayns and/or James Bell in the lineup, I expect Jay Wright to have his team fully ready for this one. Lets not forget that Villanova is 9-3 at home while Notre Dame is 4-7 on the road. Despite their recent struggles, they've still won three of five here, the two losses coming against Syracuse and Marquette. Note that Villanova is 9-5 SU/ATS the last 14 times it was listed as a home underdog of three or fewer points. Its been a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats. A win against a ranked opponent would sure fix a lot of problems though. Catching the Irish patting themselves on the back and feeling a little too good, I expect them Wildcats to rise to the occasion and pull off the upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on AUSTIN PEAY. The Governors have been struggling in conference play recently. I expect a game against a (mediocre) team from outside the Ohio Valley to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. The Penguins have over-achieved somewhat in the Horizon League this season. Give them credit for hanging around. However, they aren't particularly talented. They've lost two of three and three of five, so are starting to come back down to earth. Hailing from the Horizon, the Penguins typically face a lot of good defensive teams, ones which don't necessarily score that many points. Therefore, the majority of their O/U lines are rather low. A look at their last 10 games reveals that ALL 10 of those games had O/U lines ranging between 127 and 136. Austin Peay home games are averaging 145.2 points though, as games in the Ohio Valley tend to be higher-scoring than those in the Horizon. That's led to an O/U line in the low 140s. That's worth mentioning as the Penguins don't typically fare too well in games that are expected to be higher-scoring. In fact, they're only 11-24-3 ATS (9-28 SU) their last 37 games with an O/U line in the 140s, including a 4-10-2 ATS (2-14 SU) mark their last 16. Refining the numbers still further finds the Penguins at 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Governors badly need this game. Its an opportunity to snap their skid and to avoid (postpone) hitting the 20 loss mark. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the past few seasons, after failing to cover their previous three games, including a 3-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Governors have beaten the Penguins four straight times, when the teams shared the same conference. Desperate to snap their skid, I expect them to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. The Seminoles come in with the higher ranking. However, I feel that the Wolfpack are (slightly) favored for good reason. The Wolfpack are a dismal 3-9 ATS in home lined games this season. However, that only tells part of the story. A closer look reveals that they're actually 8-4 SU in home lined games, 12-4 in home games overall. I mention the SU records, as with this afternoon's line being close to a "pick'em," a SU win has a very strong chance of also resulting in an ATS win. The Seminoles have been outstanding at home but they're only 4-6 away from home, 3-4 SU/ATS in road line games. The Wolfpack are off a 5-point loss at Duke, covering as +10 point underdogs. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Their most recent home game resulted in a double-digit victory. The Seminoles do own wins over both Duke and UNC. So, they've shown they can beat just about any team. That said, they're also 0-4 ATS their last four games. Their last road game resulted in an outright loss (64-60) against a bad Boston College team. Off a 1-point win on Thursday and with a rematch with Duke on deck, the Seminoles could well be caught looking ahead here. Note that they're 0-2 SU/ATS in lined games this season, when playing with one or fewer day's rest in between games. They haven't done so since back in November. The Wolfpack also played on Thursday. However, they're a much better 4-1 SU/ATS when playing with one or less day's rest, a situation they've gone 9-5 SU/ATS in the past few seasons. The Wolfpack are 29-5 SU the last 34 times that they were favored. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the very small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Northern Iowa and VCU to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been somewhat profitable for "under" bettors this season. The Rams have seen the UNDER go 16-11. The Panthers have seen the UNDER go 15-12. That's a combined 31-23 which is already a respectable 57.4%. However, if we look a little more closely, we find those numbers are even better. A closer look reveals that the Rams have seen the UNDER go 9-2 at home while the Panthers have seen the UNDER go 7-4 on the road. That's a combined 16-6 which is 72.7%. Going back further finds the UNDER at 23-14 the past few seasons in VCU home games and 22-12 in Northern Iowa's road games. The Rams have seen the UNDER go 14-8 when favored, including 3-0 when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Panthers have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when listed as underdogs, a situation that has seen the UNDER go 16-8 the last 24 and a lucrative 50-26 over many years. The Panthers allow just 61.7 points per game. The Rams allow a mere 58.7 per game and that number dips all the way down to 52.6 at home. Games here are averaging 118.8 points with visiting teams hitting less than 40% of their shots. I'm expecting another defensive affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. Both these teams lost last time out. Not surprising, as both were fairly heavy underdogs. The Terrapins got hammered at Duke. The Eagles, on the other hand, nearly pulled off a big upset at Virginia Tech. They didn't though, eventually losing a 1-point heartbreaker. A blowout loss can often be easier to "bounce back" from than a close one though. Throw in the fact that the Terps are more talented AND playing at home and I'm expecting a blowout. While they did nearly score the upset last time out, the Eagles are now just 1-9 away from home. They're now playing back to back road games for the first time in 2012. The last time that the Eagles played away from home, after having also played away from home in their previous game, was a 11/27 neutral court game vs. New Mexico. Listed as +13 point underdogs, the Eagles lost by 18. A win vs. G-Tech on 1/15 wrapped up a 9-1 stretch for the Terps. Since then, they've been dealing with a brutal schedule. Their last eight games have come at Florida State, at Temple, vs. Duke, vs. V-Tech, at Miami, vs. UNC, at Clemson and at Duke. That's eight tough opponents, facing five of them on the road. So, a 2-6 SU record certainly wasn't great - but it wasn't as bad as it sounds, either. Now, the Terps finally get a chance to face a weaker team at home. I expect them to make the most of it. The Terps, who had covered four straight before the loss at Duke, are 13-5 SU and 10-6-2 ATS the past few seasons, when off a conference loss. That includes a 3-1-1 ATS mark this season. The Terps haven't forgotten that Boston College upset them twice last season. They're a perfect 17-0 SU their last 17 against teams with a losing record. I expect them to improve on those stats here, picking up the cover along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. At first glance, at least for those not up to speed on what's currently going on in the Atlantic-10, this line may seem a little high. After all, the Spiders have hammered the Billikens twice in a row, including a winner in last year's lone meeting. The Spiders won those two games by a combined 38 points. Things figure to be much different this time, however, A closer look at the last two meetings shows that they both came at Richmond. Tonight's game is at St. Louis. Obviously, that's huge. Just as important, the Billikens are a vastly improved team this season while the same cannot be said of the Spiders. St. Louis enters today's action with a 20-5 record including an impressive 12-1 record at home. Richmond, on the other hand, is 13-13 and just 3-8 on the road. The Spiders are off a deflating 2-point home loss against George Washington, a game they were favored by -6.5 points. They're now 1-4 SU/ATS their last five games. Their last road game resulted in a 9-point loss at Duquesne. Prior to that, they lost by 15 at St. Bonaventure and by 18 at George Washington. So, you can see they haven't fared too well in their recent road games. Those three road games came against teams that currently rank 8th, 9th and 13th in the A-10. The Spiders were still blown out by an average of 14 points. Now, they'll take on a far tougher opponent, as the Billikens are right at the top of the A-10 and are dominating teams here at St. Louis. The Billikens have been playing stingy defense for years. That's the case again this season. In fact, they're allowing a mere 56.8 points per game. That's by far the best mark of all the teams in the A-10. (Only one other team is allowing less than 65 and that's St. Bonaventure at 63.1.) Teams visiting St. Louis are averaging a paltry 50.8 points, hitting only 38.7% of their shots. This year, the Billikens are also playing well on the offensive side of the ball. They're averaging a healthy 69.4 points per game including 70.6 here at home, where they shoot 47.9%. While the Spiders are just 4-7 ATS as underdogs, the Billikens are 12-7 ATS as favorites. That includes a 4-0 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. In addition to dominating the A-10, the Billikens have earned double-digit wins over teams from the Big East (Villanova) the Big 12 (Oklahoma) the ACC (Boston College) and the Pac-12 (Washington). With payback on their minds from last season, I expect the Billikens to wear down the Spiders with their defense and depth en route to another convincing win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Cavaliers have the better record and the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Tigers are (slight) favorites for good reason. These teams met at Virginia a couple of weeks ago. Not surprisingly, the Cavailers won that game. However, it was actually very close, as the Tigers gave their hosts all they could handle. Virginia would eventually win 65-61. Joe Harris, who plays more minutes than any other Virginia player, scored 19 of those points. Harris, who is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding, may be at less than 100% here though, assuming he even plays. That's because he fractured a bone in his (non-shooting) hand on Saturday. If he even plays, he'll be wearing some kind of protection. While Harris' status is currently still up in the air, the Tigers know they'll have Milton Jennings in the lineup, a luxury they didn't have two weeks ago. As Virginia coach Tony Bennett noted of the first meeting "They did not have Jennings for that game. And now they have him and he's played very well for them." Since returning, Jennings is averaging 14.5 points, shooting 58%. Clemson coach Brad Brownell had this to say of his return: "If he can make his perimeter shot, that really helps our offense out in terms of giving us another shooter on the floor. He shot reasonably well the last couple of games." Jennings and co. are coming out a breakout offensive performance as the team shot a whopping 58.2% in a 78-58 destruction of Wake Forest. While Virginia is obviously a much tougher opponent, the big win figures to give Clemson confidence here, as does the fact that they already went toe-to-toe with the Cavs on the road. The Cavs are obviously a very good team. I feel that the Tigers are better than their record indicates too though. Indeed, a number of their conference losses have been very close and they could easily have a better record. I expect them to be extremely motivated to get a win vs. a ranked opponent here. Note that the Cavs have dropped two straight on the road - and that their previous road game before that was a 1-point win. So, while they're a very good team - they're not unbeatable when playing away from Virginia. The Tigers lost by two vs. Maryland last time here, a disappointing loss. However, they'd won three of their previous four home games, the lone loss coming vs. Duke. Two of those wins came by double-digits including a 79-59 destruction of a good Florida State team. The Tigers won big the last time that they hosted the Cavs, a 72-49 victory in February of 2010. Things won't be that easy for the Tigers tonight. However, I do expect them to play their best game and come away with the victory, improving to 4-0 SU the last four times that they played a home game where the O/U line was less than 120. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BAYLOR. I've been avoiding playing on the Bears. Good thing too. They're 0-5 ATS their last five, 1-7 ATS their last eight and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14. All those pointspread losses are working in our favor though. Many lost with Baylor again on Saturday and are less willing to back the Bears here as a result. That's kept this line to single-digits. As I expect a big win, I feel that relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off two straight blowout losses, the Bears figure to be in a foul mood. In their defense, those losses came at Missouri and vs. Kansas. Lets not forget that prior to those losses, the Bears had won four straight. They're still 21-4 on the season and Missouri and Kansas are the only two teams which have defeated them. A big win tonight would really help the Bears confidence and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way. Iowa State is a solid enough team, one which has been on a nice ATS run. That said, the Cyclones are not in the same class as Missouri or Kansas. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City. The Bears have already swept those same Cowboys, winning by 45 combined points. The Bears are 5-0 against the Cyclones here at Waco, dating back to 2000. Laying -11.5, they beat them by a score of 84-63 here last season. They're still 4-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, after failing to cover three straight games. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Eagles have a better pointspread record on the year than do the Hokies. That doesn't mean they're a better team though. Indeed, this year's Eagles are not much of a team at all. At 8-16 they've got the worst record in the conference. The Hokies could desperately use a "big" win and they know this is their best opportunity to get one. I expect a convincing victory. The Eagles are off a are victory last time out. However, they'd previous lost six straight. That win came at home. They lost their previous game by only four points, too. However, that one came at Georgia Tech, a team which is only 4-7 at home and 9-15 overall. The Eagles, 1-8 on the road overall, are certainly capable of getting blown out. They lost by 22 at Holy Cross. They lost by 36 at Massachusetts. They even lost at home to Boston U by 14 points. Other notable double-digit losses came against St. Louis (11), New Mexico (18) and Harvard (21). Since starting ACC play, they're 0-4 on the road and three of the losses came by at least 14 points. Considering that the Eagles were +9.5 at Georgia Tech, +18 at Virginia and +16 at NC State, I feel this line could easily be higher. The Hokies should have some added motivation to really lay a beating on the Eagles here. That's because they were upset at Boston College last month. Laying -9, they lost by two. Additionally, the Eagles beat them both times in 2011 including a 76-61 game here, when the Hokies were laying -9. Playing with revenge and looking to build some positive momentum with a big win, I look for the Hokies to bounce back and improve to 10-5-1 ATS (13-3) the last 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. *10

Reason: I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. I'm well aware that the Greyhounds have been playing well. In fact, I just won with them on Friday when they knocked off Iona. They were underdogs for that game while also playing with "revenge." They'd been strong in the revenge role and I felt they were offering excellent value. They won by six. This time, however, the Greyhounds are laying points. Additionally, this time, they're now facing an opponent which is playing with revenge. Off the win over Iona, one of the biggest in program history, I won't be surprised if they have a bit of a letdown here. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full by what figures to be an extremely motivated Fairfield team. While the Greyhounds have been a pleasant surprise, the Stats have disappointed a little this season. They're still only 2.5 games back of the Greyhounds in the MAAC standings though and are currently playing their best basketball. The Stags know this is essentially a "must win" game for them, if they want to keep their slim hopes of winning the conference alive. Additional motivation comes from the fact that the Greyhounds upset the Stags, at Fairfield. Note that game was very close. Loyola won by three. Also, note that the Stags have been excellent in the revenge role. In fact, Fairfield was playing with revenge in each of its last two games. While they only went 1-1 ATS in those games, the Stags were 2-0 SU. They beat Siena by eight and Manhattan by six. They've now four straight. Since losing vs. these same Greyhounds, the Stags have won six of seven. Going back further finds the Stags at an impressive 29-18 ATS their last 47 lined games, when playing with revenge. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark their last six in that situation. While they did give up a lot of second half points vs. Iona, the Greyhounds have been playing very stingy defense of late. They'll be taking on another very good defensive team here. In fact, Fairfield has held three of its last four opponents to 56 or fewer points and is allowing the fewest points in the entire conference. The Greyhounds rank second. Not surprisingly, given that they're the two best defenses in the conference, this game has quite a low O/U line and is expected to be low-scoring. That figures to work in the Stags favor. They're 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU) the last 12 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. On the other hand, the Greyhounds are a terrible 1-12 ATS (6-7 SU) the last 13 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. Last year's meeting here was decided by a single point. Loyola won 66-65. That makes three of the last four meetings in this series which were decided by four or fewer points. (Fairfield won the other by double-digits.) I feel the Stags have an excellent shot at the outright upset here. However, in a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I'll gladly grab the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I won with the Bulldogs on Thursday night. Listed as small favorites, they crushed St. Mary's. That big win figures to give them some positive momentum. Taking a step down in class, I look for them to follow it up with another convincing victory this evening. Loyola Marymount has been playing fairly solid basketball of late and has enjoyed a fine season. The Lions have played particularly well on the road. That said, I don't feel that the Lions are in the same class as Gonzaga, St. Mary's or BYU and I expect them to stumble tonight. The Bulldogs have dominated conference opponents here at Spokane for years and that includes the Lions. Indeed, the last time that the Lions won in Spokane was in 1992, a streak of 22 games. The Bulldogs are now 101-7 here at McCarthy Center. Last year's meeting here saw Gonzaga win by 20, laying -16.5. In fact, Gonzaga has won by at least 16 points each of the last six times it was the host in this series, going 5-1 ATS. The Bulldogs won those six games by an average margin of 23.5 points per game! With an O/U line in the high 130s, note that the Lions are only 6-9 ATS (5-10 SU) the last 15 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. During that stretch, the Bulldogs were 10-5 ATS (15-0 SU!) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. While the Lions want to join the "big 3" at the top of this conference, I don't feel they're quite ready to be there. I expect the Bulldogs to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, en route to another win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Cardinals come in with the higher ranking. However, I feel that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. Off a tough loss vs. Notre Dame, having now lost four of five AND with back to back difficult road games on deck, the Mountaineers desperately need a victory here. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The Mountaineers have now failed to cover the spread three straight games, the first time that's happened this season. That shouldn't stop us from backing them here though as they're 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off three or more consecutive pointspread losses. On the other hand, the Cardinals are on a roll. They've won five straight. That shouldn't stop us from going against them here though either. The Cardinals were on a 4-game winning streak the last time that they played here and they still lost that one. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that WVU is an impressive 13-0 SU the last 13 times that it played a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. That includes a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their last four in that situation. West Virginia's Kevin Jones, who leads the Big East with averages of 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds had this to say about the team's motivation level: "You've got to beat good opponents. Luckily for us in the Big East we play a lot of ranked teams. That can be a bad thing, as well, but it's all about having a mindset where we have to go into games and be the hungriest team out there. We're not the most talented team in the Big East, so we have to be the hungriest team ... " Jones also had this to say: "You've got to win home games. It's tough (in the big East). Teams beat one another up so much you've got no choice but to fight through the wear-and-tear of it, but we've got another important game coming up in Louisville, and we've just got to move forward." I expect Jones and co. to indeed be the "hungrier" team as they bring their "A Game" leading to a much needed win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Loyola Maryland. This is a very big game in the MAAC. Its an especially big game for the Greyhounds, who are arguably playing their best basketball since moving up to Division 1 in the 1981-82 season. Listed as small underdogs, I expect the Greyhounds to keep on rolling for another night. The Greyhounds have now held six straight opponents to less than 60 points, as the defense has been stifling. Last time out, they won 66-55. Before that, they won 63-46. Prior to that, it was a 70-52 victory. They're now an impressive 11-2 in conference play, by far their best ever start in conference action. On a six-game winning streak, the Greyhounds haven't lost since they faced these same Gaels, at Iona. That puts them in the "revenge" role here. Not that they should need any added motivation. (The last time that they played with revenge, the Greyhounds hammered Niagara by double-digits.) With their current winning streak, the Greyhounds are now an impressive 8-2 ATS when coming off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. Of course, Iona is a also very good team and also comes in on a roll. Like the Greyhounds, the Gaels are 11-2 in conference play. They won 85-73 last time out. However, it should be noted that they're only 2-9 ATS in lined games, after scoring 80 or more points. Despite covering last time out, the Gaels are only 6-11 ATS in February the past 2+ seasons, going an awful 32-55 ATS in February lined games, over the long-term. Listed as +5 point underdogs, the Greyhounds won outright against the Gaels here last season, avenging a double-digit loss at Iona. They're playing much better now than they were then and I expect them to score the upset once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. Its been nearly a month ago since these teams last faced each other. I had a big play (*10 Roast) on that Gaels in that 1/12 game. They rewarded me with a convincing 83-62 victory. That was at St. Mary's though. With tonight's rematch being played at Gonzaga, I'm now backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. Entering the game at St. Mary's, Gonzaga had won eight straight games and was on an impressive 6-1 ATS streak, including 4-0 ATS its last four. At the time, I felt that all those Gonzaga pointspread victories were helping to keep the line on St. Mary's quite low, providing us with excellent value. However, dating back to the loss at St. Mary's, the Bulldogs have gone a dismal 0-7 ATS (5-2 SU) their last seven games. Just as I thought the Bulldogs perfect 4-0 ATS streak was helping to provide us with value on St. Mary's last month, I now believe that they're less than "perfect" 0-7 ATS streak has shifted the value the other way. Indeed, many won't be willing to back the Bulldogs after they've dropped seven straight at the betting window. That's caused the line to be so low that a SU victory will likely also result in an ATS win. However, lets keep in mind that Gonzaga still did win five of those seven games and that the two SU losses both came on the road, at St. Mary's and at BYU. This is still a team which has won nine straight here in the Pacific Northwest, if including their "neutral court" game at the Key Arena in Seattle. Yes, the Bulldogs lost badly at St. Mary's. They've dominated the Gaels here over the years though and they're an outstanding 29-5 SU the last 34 (6-1 the L7) times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Irish come in as the hotter team and they also have the better overall record in Conference play. I feel the Mountaineers are favored for good reason though. The Irish are 7-3 in Big East play while the Mountaineers are only 6-5. That makes this a very important game for West Virginia. These teams will face each other again on Feb 22nd, at Notre Dame. That makes this game even more critical for the Mountaineers, as they know winning that one will be tough. Likewise, the Irish know that winning here will not be easy. They haven't won here since January 2005, as the Mountaineers have beaten them three straight times here. Even though the Irish have earned some recent road wins, note that they're only 2-3 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Irish are indeed the hotter team, the Mountaineers do have some badly needed momentum. That's because they knocked off Providence (in OT) last game. Off that 87-84 victory, note that the Mountaineers are an impressive 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight times that they scored 80 or more points in their previous game. Despite losing vs. Pittsburgh in their last game here, the Mountaineers have still been very tough at home. Prior to the loss vs. the Panthers, WVU was 7-0 at home since the beginning of December, beating the likes of Cincinnati, Rutgers, Georgetown, Villanova and Miami. Six of those seven victories came by at least seven points, too. I was on the Mountaineers when they hosted the Irish last February. Laying -4 points, WVU won by a score of 72-58. I expect the Mountaineers to be the more "hungry" team tonight and for that to lead to another win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on FAIRFIELD. Siena has been the top team in this conference. The Saints are closer to the middle of the pack this year though. Even with some January wins, they're still below .500, checking in at 10-12 overall. They're off a deflating home loss to St. Peter's, a game they led by 20 points. The Stags check in off back to back wins and with a 12-10 record. A closer look shows Fairfield with a 6-3 home record and Siena with a 2-8 away mark. The Stags have won their last two home games by 36 combined points. The Stags have payback on their minds. They were favored for their game at Siena by lost 73-60. They were in the middle of a stretch where they lost five of six at the time and are now playing much better basketball. At 7-4 in the conference, they've got three teams ahead of them. They expected to challenge for the MAAC title this year and know they really could use a big win here. Note that the Stags won by 13 against the Saints here last season, laying -9. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the expected tempo figures to favor Fairfield. With an O/U line in the mid 120s, note that the Saints are a dismal 2-10 ATS (4-8 SU) the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that stretch, the Stags are 13-8 ATS (16-5 SU) when doing so. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PURDUE. The Hoosiers come in with the higher ranking. However, this game being played at Purdue, I believe that the Boilermakers are favored for good reason. The Hoosiers are actually fortunate to even be ranked at all still. Yes, they did get off to a great 15-1 start. However, they're only 3-5 on the road for the season and they've now lost five of their last seven overall. The two wins came over fairly weak opponents too, as they were facing Penn State and Iowa. Winning a road game against a determined Purdue team figures to be far more difficult. Of course, Indiana coach Tom Crean knows that fact all too well. The Hoosiers are 0-5 against Purdue under his watch. They've lost those games by an average of more than 12 points, too. Both last season's meetings resulted in double-digit victories for the Boilermakers. Of course, winning on the road in conference play is always difficult for Crean's crew, regardless of venue. Indeed, the Hoosiers are a horrendous 2-31 on the road in Big Ten play under Crean. Both wins came at Penn State, too. Not surprisingly, the Hoosiers are an ugly 9-19 ATS the last 28 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, including 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. While Indiana is off a double-digit blowout loss vs. Michigan, Purdue is off a momentum-building win at Northwestern. While Indiana is 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, the Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in that range. Indiana falls from the rankings and Purdue continues its domination of Crean. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The Huskies are off four straight losses, going 0-4 ATS. That's kept this line a little lower than it easily could have been. Given that I expect them to bounce back with a big win, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Like UConn, Seton Hall is also really struggling. In fact, the Pirates have lost five straight. They've dropped three in a row on the road and are 1-4 (2-3 ATS) on the road since Christmas. While both teams surely badly want to bounce back with a victory, the Huskies play with the added incentive of "revenge," as the Pirates hammered them at Seton Hall recently. Games at Connecticut have been a different story though, as the Huskies have dominated the Pirates here. In fact, prior to last month's loss, UConn had won 11 straight in the series. The Huskies managed only 44 points scored in Wednesday's loss to Georgetown. That was their second lowest total in Big East play in the entire Jim Calhoun era. Needless to say, they'll be fired up to bounce back with a much better offensive performance. Facing a Pirates team that allows more than 66 (66.7) points per game on the road should help. The Pirates are 3-9 SU the last dozen times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Conversely, the Huskies are 10-2 the last 12 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LOYOLA CHICAGO. The Vikings are at the top of the conference. The Ramblers are at the bottom. That's reflected in the pointspread, as Cleveland State is laying double-digits. With all due respect to the Vikings, who are indeed a very good team, I believe that's asking too much of them. The Ramblers have payback on their minds as they were embarrassed 69-48 at Cleveland State. Note that they were +14 for that game. They're not quite as big an underdog here. However, they're still getting double-digits. Given how the Ramblers played last game here and given how the Vikings have fared on the road of late, I feel that's providing excellent value. Cleveland State did win big at Youngstown State last time on the road. However, prior to that, the Vikings had lost two of four on the road and the two wins both came by single-digits. In fact, going back to December 1st, the Viking have only won one road game (out of eight tries) by more than eight points. Given that the Vikings won by only four points at Robert Morris (a game that didn't even have a line) a blowout win on the road is never a guarantee for them, regardless of the opponent. In their last game here, the Ramblers lost by only six vs. Butler. They've quietly gone 3-0 ATS their last three games overall. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. A win against the top team in the conference would really make their season and I look for the Ramblers to go all out to get it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BUTLER. I'm well aware that this year's Bulldogs haven't dominated the Horizon the way that we've grown accustomed to. Having recently successfully played against them, I'm also well aware that they've lost three straight and that they've got an awful ATS record this season. That said, I still have a lot of respect this team. The recent losses and the poor overall pointspread record have helped to keep this line reasonably low and I expect the Bulldogs to bounce back with a win and cover. Yes, the Bulldogs have dropped three straight. However, a closer look shows that all three of those losses came on the road. This will be their first home game since mid-January. Their most recent home game came back on 1/15. The Bulldogs, laying a similar number to what they are this evening, won by a score of 71-55. Including that result, Butler is 5-2-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times it was listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, Wright State is only 1-5-1 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. While the offense has admittedly struggled, the Butler defense remains outstanding. The Bulldogs are allowing less than 60 points per game at home and tonight they'll be facing a Wright State team that is averaging a mere 52.9 points per game on the road. I won't be surprised if the Raiders manage less than 50 here. The Bulldogs won but didn't cover at Wright State. Including that victory, they're 9-1 the last 10 meetings in the series. That includes a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS mark the last three meetings here at Butler. While the Raiders would surely love to avenge the earlier loss, note that they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they attempted to avenge a home defeat. I successfully played against the Raiders in their last road game. Listed as +11 underdogs at Detroit, they lost by a score of 69-53. They're now 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road in 2012 and that includes a 58-38 setback at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I expect them to have trouble scoring once again and for the determined Bulldogs to pull away for a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UNLV. Many might be quick to grab the big points here. After all, the Rams just beat highly ranked San Diego State on the weekend, a team which UNLV lost against. I won't be one of them though, as I'm expecting the favored Rebels to run all over the visiting Rams here. Yes, the Rams deserve credit for beating the Aztecs. That didn't surprise me though, as I had a big play on Colorado State in that game. Not only did I feel that the Aztecs were over-rated but I also felt they were ripe for a letdown. Keep in mind that the Rams got to face them at Colorado State. On the other hand, UNLV had to face the Aztecs at San Diego. Tonight's game, of course, is at the Thomas & Mack Center. Big Difference. The Rebels have been dominant at home, going 12-0 here. They beat a good New Mexico team by 15 in their last game here and beat TCU by 23 in their previous home game. In fact, Nevada is the only team to hang within single digits of the Rebels here and that game was played way back in early November. Overall, UNLV is outscoring opponents by a 87 to 63.4 margin at home. The Rebels shoot better than 50% (51.7%) here while opposing teams make less than 40% (39.6%) of theirs. While the Rebels are 7-3 ATS in home lined games, the Rams are only 3-4 ATS in road lined games. Scoring only 66 ppg away from home, they're likely going to have trouble keeping up here. In their last two road games, the Rams managed only 103 combined points. They lost those two games by scores of 85-52 and 70-51. The Rebels haven't forgotten that the Rams beat them here last season. Now, its payback time. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I successfully played on the Penguins when these teams faced each other on 1/20. Listed as small underdogs, the Penguins rewarded me with an 68-66 "upset" victory. That was at Youngstown State though. With tonight's rematch being played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, I expect a vastly different result. While I played against them at Youngstown State, I did recently play on the Panthers when they defeated Butler. Including that 53-42 victory on 1/26, the Panthers are a profitable 15-7 ATS the last 22 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, including a perfect 3-0 ATS their last three in that situation. The Penguins are not in one of their better roles as they are just 8-16-1 ATS (2-23 SU) the last 25 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. They've played two road games in 2012 and each resulted in a double-digit loss. They lost by 14 at Valparaiso and by 16 at Butler. The Panthers have dominated the Penguins here at Wisconsin Milwaukee and haven't lost to them here since December 2006. Most recently, laying -7, they won by nine. They're laying a little larger number here but I expect an even more convincing victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Tigers are good. However, they're not unbeatable and they currently aren't playing their best. Last time out, laying -24.5, they won by "only" 13. They were facing the worst team in the conference (Texas Tech) but the offense struggled. Prior to that, in their most recent road game, they lost outright vs. Oklahoma State. I successfully played against the Tigers in that one and I'm going against them here. The Longhorns fought hard at Baylor last time out, losing outright but covering the spread. Wins have been tough to come by for them on the road of late but they've continued to play well at home. They're 1-7 away from home but 12-1 when listed as the home team. The loss at Baylor, combined with the fact that they already lost at Missouri, should give the Longhorns plenty of motivation here. Obviously, a victory against the ranked Tigers would really help their resume. These teams faced each other here almost exactly one year ago to the day. The Longhorns were laying -7.5 for that 1/29/2011 meeting and they won by 13. That brought them to 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in the series. Behind another big game from their scoring leader J'Covan Brown, who lit up the Tigers in the last meeting, I expect the revenge-minded Longhorns to continue their homecourt dominance in the series, scoring the minor "upset." *10 (Best Bet)

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Panthers are off back to back wins. However, those both came at home. Before that, they'd lost eight straight. They're lost all four road games since Christmas. In fairness, they played at home pretty tough venues. Unfortunately, for Pittsburgh fans, this is an other difficult place to play and they'll be contending with a well-coached Mountaineers team which figures to be in a foul mood. The Mountaineers very nearly pulled off an upset at Syracuse on Saturday, losing by only two. They know they can't afford to hang their heads from that loss though, as they'd also lost their previous game, which also came on the road. They're back on the road after this game and they know that they play at Pittsburgh on 2/16. In other words, they know they need to take care of business here at home, where they haven't lost since mid-November. They're 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) in home lined games. Six of those seven victories came by double-digits. Note that the Mountaineers are also 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss. They were swept by a better Pittsburgh team last season. They haven't forgotten. Now, its payback time. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Both these teams lost last time out. The Bears fell by only two points at Washington State, seeing their 4-game winning streak come to an end. The Cardinal, on the other hand, lost by double-digits for the second straight game. Naturally, both teams will really want to win this one. Playing at home, I expect the Bears to be the team which bounces back. Cal checks in with a perfect 13-0 home record. In their last game on this floor, the Bears won by a score of 81-45. They're outscoring teams by a commanding 73.8 to 52.5 margin here. The Cardinal have dropped three of four on the road in 2012. The lone win came by two points in quadruple OT, at Oregon State. All three losses came by double-digits. The Bears haven't lost two in a row all season. They've responded very well to each of their previous setbacks. Indeed, losing has really seemed to have them "seeing red" in their next game. After losing vs. Missouri, laying -14, the Bears bounced back with a 21-point win and cover vs. Denver. After losing by a single point at San Diego State, laying -19.5, the Bears bounced back with a 45 point blowout of San Jose State. After a loss at UNLV, the Bears bounced back to defeat USC. (They didn't cover that one.) Then, most recently, after a loss at Oregon State, they responded with a 17 win at Oregon, easily covering as -3 point favorites. So, that's 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS off a loss so far this season. With the blowout win at Oregon, the Bears are now 11-5 ATS the past few seasons, when off a conference loss. (The Cardinal are 11-13 ATS off a conference loss, during the same period.) The Bears have been excellent as favorites against this season. In fact, they're now 34-18 ATS the last 52 times that they were laying points. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During that stretch, the Cardinal are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the in +6.5 to +9 range. Both 2011 meetings in this series saw the home team win decisively. The game here saw the Bears win by a score of 74-55. I expect another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BYU. The Gaels come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Cougars are favored for good reason. BYU checks in with an 11-2 home record, outscoring opponents by a commanding 84.9 to 65.5 margin here. While they've since responded with back to back road wins, the Cougars actually lost their last game here. I expect that to have them in a nasty mood here. Prior to that, they'd only had three losses since mid-November. Those losses came vs. Baylor on a neutral court vs. Wisconsin and at St. Mary's, vs. these same Gaels. That puts the Cougars in the revenge role here and should give them some added motivation. BYU is 51-30 SU over the years, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. The Gaels have been unbeatable at home but that's not the case on the road. In addition to a double-digit neutral court loss vs. Baylor, they lost by double-digits at Denver. They're only 2-5 ATS their last seven games overall and they're just 9-15 -1 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record after at least 15 games have been played. Off a momentum-building win at V-Tech, one which saw the Cougars hit the go-ahead 3-pointer in the final 30 seconds, BYU coach David Rose commented: "The game should give us a lot of confidence in our ability to be able to rely on each other and trust each other ... " Prior to the three point loss vs. Baylor, the Cougars were 3-0 SU/ATS the previous three times that they were listed as home favorites of four or fewer points. Playing with 'revenge,' I expect the Cougars to carry the positive momentum from the V-Tech win into tonight's game and look for them to deliver a solid win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. Seeing such a short number, many are likely to jump all over the road favorites in this one. After all, the Aztecs are on an extended undefeated streak while the Rams are off back to back blowout losses. I believe that the line is low for good reason though. Yes, the Rams have dropped two straight. Those were both on the road though, each at difficult venues. Prior to those losses, the Rams had won eight straight. Note that this is the third time that the Rams have lost two in a row this season, as each of their losses have come in pairs. In each previous case, they stopped the losing streak right there, responding to the b2b losses by delivering a double-digit victory in their next game. Having faced non-conference opponents like Stanford, Northern Iowa and Duke, I don't expect the Rams to be intimidated here. While the Aztecs have proven to be better than most expected, I still don't personally believe they are quite as good as their #13 ranking suggests. While the Rams haven't had many recent wins against ranked opponents, to put it nicely, they did very nearly beat the Aztecs here last season. San Diego State was ranked #7 at the time but didn't hit the game-winning shot until there was less than two seconds remaining, a 56-54 victory. The Rams are arguably a better team this year while the Aztecs lost a lot from last year's team. In a game that could easily come down to the wire again, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Rams to rise to the occasion with the outright win. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. Having dropped four straight, the Crimson Tide desperately need a victory. I feel that the Razorbacks will provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one. Some may recall that I successfully played against Arkansas the last time it played on the road. The Razorbacks lost that one by 23. That dropped them to 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, 0-5 SU/ATS if including a 87-78 "neutral court" loss vs. Houston, a game in which they were laying -9 points. Going back a bit further finds the Razorbacks at a horrible 6-16 ATS (4-18 SU) their last 22 road lined games. Yes, the Tide have lost four straight. However, in all fairness to Alabama, three of those four losses came on the road. The lone home loss came against a Vanderbilt team which is considerably stronger than the Arkansas squad they'll face here. Unlike the Razorbacks who have yet to prove they can win on the road, the Commodores are 6-1 away from home, including a double-digit win at Marquette. (The lone loss came by two at Louisville.) So, that is a team that clearly knows how to get it done on the road. Even with the close road loss last time out, the Tide remain an excellent 15-8 ATS over the past several years, when having lost their previous three games. Prior to the 4-game skid, the Tide had won five straight. They're still 7-2 SU at home. They've also got neutral court wins over the likes of Maryland, Wichita State, Purdue and Oklahoma State. They beat those four opponents by an average of 14 points, too. All four victories came by at least nine. So, they've shown an ability to beat half decent teams by double-digits. The Tide have dominated the Razorbacks here, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS the last 14 meetings here. Last year, laying -10.5, they won 69-56. Including that victory, the Tide are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Desperate for a big win, I expect an even wider margin here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. At first glance, this line may look rather high. However, given the class difference between these teams, I feel it could easily be even higher. While they're currently only in the middle of the pack, I feel that Detroit is among the stronger teams in the Horizon. Off back-to-back double-digit victories and now 4-1 (3-2 ATS) their last five games, the Titans are finally starting to play like it. They came a point short of covering the number last time out. However, it was still a convincing 67-52 victory. They were laying -16 for that one. Now, due in part to the fact they didn't cover there, they're laying a little less - against an equally bad team, one they should match up very well against. After a slow start, the Titans know they've got some ground to make up and they're more than capable of taking care of the teams below them. Regulars will recall we won with the Titans just last week against Wright State. Laying -11.5, Detroit won by 16. The Titans remain perfect at home in 2012 and that includes a double-digit win over Butler. The Flames were competitive on the road last time out, losing by "only" six. That was at Wright State though and we saw what Detroit just did to that same time. They're just 1-6 SU since New Year's Eve and the lone win came at home against Loyola-Illinois. Prior to losing by six at Wright State, the Flames' previous road game resulted in a 21 point loss at Youngstown State. Detroit is a much tougher venue. Some may recall we successfully played against these same Flames earlier when they lost by 42 (as a +18.5 point dog) at Oregon State. So, this team is certainly capable of being "blown out." In addition to trying to catch up to the leaders in the Horizon, the Titans have some added motivation as they were upset by the Flames (at Illinois-Chicago) on 12/29. That game came down to the wire, the Flames winning 63-59. The Titans have long dominated the Flames here. Laying -10, they won by 14 last season. That brought them to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were a host in this series. Its payback time tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Playing their first game without 7-foot senior Assane Sene, the Cavaliers stumbled against rival V-Tech last time out. It appears that they're going to be without Sene for some time, so the Cavs know they have to show they can win without him. I expect them to be highly motivated to prove that this team is more than just about Sene. Hosting Boston College should make things easier. Note that the last time the Cavs were off a loss, they responded with a 70-38 victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss on the season, covering the spread with ease each time. The Eagles lost by 14 at NC State two games ago. The Wolfpack are pretty good and that was on the road, so there's no real "shame" in that. However, they followed it up with a 71-56 home loss against a mediocre Wake Forest team last time out. That brings them to 2-5 their last seven and 7-12 overall. Keep in mind that this is a team which lost by 22 at Holy Cross earlier in the season. Virginia has all sorts of statistical advantages. The Cavs rank second in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 50.2 points per game. Additionally, Virginia ranks among the nation's top 20 in rebounding margin, an impressive plus-7.1. On the other hand, Boston College ranks among the 15 worst, at minus-6.3. The Cavs are an outstanding 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Panthers when they lost at Youngstown State recently. At the time, the Panthers were riding high on a 3-game winning streak. I knew they had a big game at Cleveland State on deck though and I didn't think they were ready to be laying points on the road. They ended up losing that game by two points (although they did make a spirited comeback attempt) and then proceeded to get thumped at Cleveland State. They're back home now though, where they've been MUCH better and the beatdown at Cleveland State should have them in a foul mood. I expect them to take it out on a Butler team that isn't quite as good as the dominant teams of recent seasons. The Panthers beat Detroit by 10 in their last game here. That brought them to 9-1 at home. Their lone loss here came against Wisconsin and they only lost that one by six, as a +10.5 point underdog. In addition to their outstanding home record, the Panthers have played some good teams tough on the road. They lost by four at Northern Iowa and lost by seven at Michigan State. They also lost by just four when they played at Butler on 12/31, a 54-50 loss. Seeing as they are so much better here, playing the Bulldogs tough at Butler should give the Panthers confidence that they can beat them now that they're playing at home. Note that they've been excellent in the "revenge role" going 14-7 ATS the last 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. The Bulldogs are playing their third straight road game here. They failed to cover last time out and are now just 4-12-2 ATS on the season, 2-6-1 ATS in road lined games. Counting the earlier meeting with the Panthers as a push, they're also only 2-7-2 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. This is a huge game for the Panthers and with it being "Military Appreciation Night" (All members of the military, past and present, and their families get in for just $5) they should have plenty of support. The Panthers are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Tigers are a strong team and they've been playing well lately. However, off their big road win at Baylor and with their highest ranking in a decade, I believe they may well be ripe for a letdown here. I also feel that they've started to become over-valued at the betting window. Yes, winning at Baylor was impressive. However, that victory did only come by a single point. The Tigers' previous road game (at Iowa St) resulted in a 7-point win. Before that, they lost by 16 at Kansas State. Before that, they won by seven at Old Dominion and by four in a neutral court game vs. Illinois. In other words, they've shown a recent tendency to play close games, when playing away from home. True, the Cowboys have seen better days. They come into this game off three consecutive losses. However, in fairness to them, two of those games came on the road. This is still a team that's 7-2 at home - and both home losses came by eight points or less. Note that the Cowboys are 10-6 SU/ATS the last 16 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The Cowboys are still 18-10-1 ATS (24-5 SU) their last 29 home lined games, going 37-5 at home overall during that stretch. They beat Missouri by six here last season. Desperate for a victory, I look for them to give the Tigers a much tougher game than many will be expecting *10

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. Off three straight losses, things haven't been so good for the Longhorns recently. However, a closer look reveals that two of those games were on the road, both at very difficult (Missouri and K-State) venues. The third was against Kansas. They actually went 2-1 ATS in those three games, losing the last two by only three and four points. In other words, they have been playing fairly well, despite coming up short. They're taking a step-down in class here and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Cyclones. While not in the same class as a Kansas or Missouri, Iowa State is a fairly solid team. The Longhorns already found that out. The Cyclones beat them 77-71 on 1/4, in their first game of the new year. That result should work in the Longhorns' favor here though. Already anxious to snap their losing streak, they'll be extra motivated to serve up some "payback" here. With a road game at Baylor on deck, followed by a rematch with Missouri, the Longhorns can ill afford not to take care of business here. Including a 12 point win over Temple, the Longhorns are 25-12-1 ATS (31-7 SU) the past 38 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, the Cyclones were 11-15 ATS (6-20 SU) as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range, going 0-3 SU/ATS their last three in that role. Texas has dominated the Cyclones here and won last season's meeting here b a score of 76-53. I expect the Longhorns to bounce back with another double-digit victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. At first glance, this line may seem a little high. However, given the venue and talent gap between these teams, I feel it could easily be higher. The Panthers are off back to back losses. That's the first time that's happened since their first three games of the season though. So, they figure to be in a foul mood here. Note that they were underdogs for those first three losses, one coming on the road (at Washington) and the other two at "neutral" sites. Off those losses, when the Panthers came home, they responded with a 19-point victory. Looking at the two recent losses (each by only 3 points) and we find that both of those also came on the road. The Panthers are back home now though, which of course is significant. In their last home game, the Panthers won by 15. In fact, a closer look shows that the Panthers have won ALL eight of their home games by a minimum of 14 points. They won those games by 19, 22, 26, 32, 32, 20, 14, 14 and 15 points. For the season, the Panthers are outscoring teams by an average margin of 70.9 to 49.3 when listed as the home team. Not surprisingly, they're an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in their home lined games. While the Panthers have dominated at home, the Dukes have shown that they can be dominated. They did actually win their most recent road game, an upset at UNC-Wilmington. (That was promptly followed up by a 2-point home loss to Hofstra.) However, their previous road game resulted in a 20-point loss. They've been beaten by at least a dozen points four times already, dating back to the start of December. Overall, the Dukes are a dismal 1-8 ATS their last nine lined games. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS when laying points and they're a perfect 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Wisconsin and Illinois to finish UNDER the total. This is obviously a very low O/U line. However, I'm expecting such a "defensive battle" that I don't feel it will prove to be low enough. While the Illini are allowing just 60.6 points per game, the Badgers are permitting a mere 48.9 per game. Opposing teams shoot just 40.6% against the Illini and a paltry 35.4% against Wisconsin. The Badgers come in as the slight favorite. That's worth noting as the UNDER is 17-7 the last 24 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, a 4-1 UNDER mark their last five in that role. Off a 54-52 loss, the Illini have now held three of their past four opponents to 56 or fewer points. The Illini defense should have success against a Wisconsin team which has scored 50 or less in two of its last four outings. The Badgers allowed 57 points last time out - that was a blowout win though and this one is likely to be closer. Their previous game was "close" and they allowed just 45 points, a 50-45 victory. As far as the low O/U line, note that the Illini have seen the UNDER go 1-0 when playing a home game with an O/U line of less than 120. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U of less than 120. With every shot closely contested, I expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. Wrong place at the wrong time for Penn State. The Hoosiers are in a nasty mood after dropping three straight. After this game, three of the Hoosiers' next four come on the road at tough venues, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue. In other words, they know they can't afford to stumble again here. They should also be looking to take out their frustrations on a mediocre opponent to build some positive momentum for the upcoming tougher games. Keep in mind that only one of the Hoosiers' recent three losses came at home. That was the only home game they lost all season and they're still outscoring opponents by a commanding 82.5 to 60.7 margin here. They're hitting better than 50% of their shots here while visiting teams are making less than 40% of theirs. These teams met at Penn State recently. Laying -6, the Hoosiers won by six. Sure, the Nittany Lions would love to avenge that loss. Considering that they're just 17-65 SU the last 82 times (3-11 L14) that they attempted to avenge a home loss, wanting and doing are often two entirely different matters. Calling the recent meeting between these teams a 'push,' the Nittany Lions are only 3-6-2 ATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 6-3-1 ATS as favorites. That record includes a 3-0 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. I feel the Hoosiers are the superior team and I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. After the Raiders had won 10 straight in this series, the Titans beat them twice last season. I expect them to make it three in a row this afternoon. The Titans were expected to be on the top teams in the league this season. However, they haven't lived up to those expectations, at least not yet. Missing 6-10 senior Eli Holman for 10 games didn't help matters. He's back now though, giving the Titans three preseason all-league first teamers. Not surprisingly, after a slow start, the Titans have started to turn things around. They did lose at Wisconsin Green Bay last time out. The Panthers are tough (9-1) at home though. The Titans did win their previous game, which was also on the road. Their most recent home game saw the Titans beat Butler by double-digits. The Raiders are not healthy right now. Indeed, they're expected to be without BOTH Vance Hall and Julius Mays. Note that Mays is the team's leading scorer, averaging 13.4 ppg. Given that the Raiders already rank a dismal 322nd (out of 338 Division I teams) in scoring offense, obviously they can't afford to lose any scoring. On the road, they're managing a mere 52.9 points per game. (Detroit averages 79.3 ppg at home.) The Raiders are 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) the last three times that they were road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. During that time, the Titans were 3-1-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Detroit, 3-1 SU/ATS when off a conference loss, won last season's two meetings by 9 and 10 points. I expect an even more convincing victory this afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on YOUNGSTOWN STATE. I played against these same Penguins exactly one week ago. At the time, they were in first place in the Horizon League and were getting a lot of respect. I didn't feel that they were actually the best team in the conference though and felt they were going to have some trouble on the road against a determined Valparaiso squad. That's exactly what happened. The Penguins followed it up with a loss at Butler. They're back home now though and I feel this is a good spot for them. While the competition has admittedly been pretty weak, the Penguins have been tough at home. They won their last game here (vs. Illinois Chicago) by 21 points, a dominating 71-50 effort. Overall, they're 5-1 here and the lone loss came by only three points. The Panthers are a good team, arguably more talented than Youngstown State; the reason that they're laying points on the road. However, they're only 1-4 SU their last five on the road and that victory came by just two points. They do need this game to keep their place in the standings. However, off back to back double-digit victories and with a huge showdown vs. Cleveland State on deck this weekend, I won't be surprised if they're not entirely focused on the Penguins here. These are both low-scoring and primarily defensive-minded teams. As a result, we're getting a fairly low O/U line. That's significant as the Panthers are 1-6 ATS the last seven times they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s and also 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that time, the Penguins were 4-3 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s and 9-3 ATS against teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game. I expect them to improve on those stats here as the Penguins give their guests a much tougher game than many will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I successfully played against these same Bulldogs exactly one week ago. Listed as +4 point underdogs, they lost by 21. That was a road game at St Mary's though. This is a home game against San Francisco. BIG difference. The Bulldogs followed up their loss to St. Mary's by winning a close one at Loyola Marymount. Back home, I expect them to be motivated to deliver a blowout. The fact that rival St. Mary's won by "only" 15 against this SF team may provide Gonzaga , still smarting from last week's loss, some added motivation to win by even more than that. Keep in mind that Gonzaga won its last three home games by 22, 28 and 39 points. With double-digit wins over the likes of Arizona, Butler and Notre Dame, the Bulldogs are more than capable of a lopsided victory here. The Dons are also certainly capable of getting blown out. Yes, they did hang within 15 at St. Mary's. They lost by 25 at BYU before that though and they began conference play with a 16-point loss at Pepperdine. Including a win and cover against the Dons here last season, the Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW MEXICO. The Aztecs have been a top tier team quite regularly in recent years. So, most casual fans probably aren't too surprised to see them ranked in the Top 25 again here. However, that is actually somewhat of a surprise, given that this team lost several key players from last year's dominant squad. Tonight, however, I expect those personnel losses to catch up to the Aztecs. After upsetting UNLV on Saturday, the Aztecs, I feel the Aztecs may be starting to get a little too cocky. Guard Chase Tapley was quoted as saying: "The Aztecs are not a team who thought we were going to be here, but we are going to be one of the top teams in the nation. We showed that ..." Give the Aztecs credit but let's not get carried away. Sorry Tapley but a home win against UNLV doesn't show me that you guys are a top team in the country. As for the previous seven games on the Aztecs' current 8-game winning streak, note that six of those came at home and that the only road game came against a bad San Diego team. Of those eight games, the Aztecs were favored in four (three by 14 or more) and the other three didn't even have lines, as the competition was so weak. Win at "The Pit" tonight and you can start to earn the right to be called an elite team. I don't expect that to happen though ... Unlike San Diego State, New Mexico brought back four starters from last season. An experienced and talented team, the Lobos have hit their stride lately. Indeed, they've won 13 in a row. That streak included victories over the likes of Washington State, Boston College, Missouri State, USC, Oklahoma State and St. Louis. Recent double-digit road wins at New Mexico State and Wyoming have also been impressive. Overall, the Lobos have outscored opponents by an average of a whopping 19.2 points while holding them to a mere 36.4% from the floor during their current 13-game winning streak. As coach Steve Alford noted after the win at Wyoming: "We have been in that mode of taking good shots for several weeks

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Usually a "popular" pick, the Wildcats are beginning to temporarily fall out of favor with the betting public. That's because they've dropped six straight at the betting window and have been very costly to their backers every since the second week of the season. That's actually worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have been. I believe that it will prove to be too low and look for today to be the day that the Wildcats finally break through with a cover. Kentucky won its last game by just three points. Prior to that, the Wildcats won by "only" 15. Those were both on the road though. The Wildcats' last home game resulted in a 15-point win and that was preceded by a 22-point neutral court victory. For the season, Kentucky is still outscoring opponents by a 84.3 to 59.7 margin at home. While the Wildcats haven't been a particularly good favorite in recent years (or this year) they are a somewhat respectable 4-3 (57%) ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the the -15.5 to -18 range. Facing an Arkansas team that remains winless on the road, getting outscored by an average of double-digits in those losses, I expect them to improve on those numbers. Scoring only 66.5 points per game on the road, while shooting only 36.8% from the field, the Razorbacks are likely to have trouble keeping up here. They're already 0-2 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. That brings them to dismal 2-8 ATS (1-9 SU) their last 10 in that situation. The Razorbacks upset Kentucky by a point last season. Combine that with the fact that they just won such a close game and the Wildcats should have plenty of motivation to keep the pedal to the metal. The last meeting here at Kentucky was in January of 2010. Laying -16.5, the Wildcats jumped out to a commanding 57-27 halftime lead and cruised to a 101-71 laugher. I expect this one to also be one-sided. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA STATE. Wichita State crushed a bad Bradley team last time out. The Shockers were 0-4 ATS their previous four games though, including a pair of wins by three or fewer points. Off such a big blowout win and having a big showdown at Northern Iowa on deck, the Shockers may get caught looking past their hosts tonight. That may well prove costly. The Sycamores are only 2-3 SU since New Year's Eve. However, they won their most recent home game and two of those three losses came by less than seven points. They're still 11-5 on the season, including a win at Vanderbilt. The Sycamores also beat Texas Tech by double-digits while losing by just seven on a neutral court against a good Minnesota club. I don't expect them to be intimidated here. Both teams played Friday. That's noteworthy as the Shockers are 0-2 SU/ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games this season - their only two SU losses of the season. The Sycamores, on the other hand, are 1-0-1 ATS in that situation this year, winning vs. Fairfield while 'pushing' vs. Minnesota. They're now 7-2-1 ATS (7-3 SU) the last 10 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Sycamores "shocked" Wichita State last March. I'll grab the points but another outright upset won't surprise. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VALPARAISO. The Penguins are the hotter team and they're currently ahead of the Crusaders in the Horizon League standings. I feel the Crusaders are the stronger team though. Given the fact that they're behind the Penguins in the standings, the Crusaders know they can't afford to squander this opportunity to gain ground. Playing on their homecourt, I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it done. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, this is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game. That should serve the high-scoring Crusaders fine. Valparaiso, which averages 77.5 points per game at home, hitting 49.8% of its shots, is 14-9-1 ATS the past few seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. The Penguins, who average less than 70 per game regardless of venue, don't fare so well in that situation. During the same stetch, they're just 4-9-2 ATS (2-13 SU) when playing a game with a total in the 140s. The Crusaders have a history of success on Friday nights (19-7 ATS L26 Friday lined games) and they've fared well when off a conference loss. They're 10-5 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Crusaders won by nine the last time they faced the Penguins, last March. That didn't result in a cover though, as they were laying -13 points. The Crusaders did cover the spread in each of the previous 2011 meetings though. Laying -7.5, they won by eight at Youngstown State. Meanwhile, laying -14 here at Valparaiso, the Crusaders won by 24. I still feel they're the more talented team and this time, we're laying a much smaller number. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST MARY'S. The Bulldogs have the higher ranking. However, playing at home, I feel the Gaels are favored for good reason. The Gaels have only lost two games all year. One came on the road in November. They responded to that one by winning eight straight games. Next was a neutral court loss vs. highly ranked Baylor. They've since responded to that setback with five straight victories, four of them coming by double-digits. They scored 77, 98, 74, 78 and 87 in those five games. so, this team knows how to score. Its also worth noting that the Gaels are 23-8 ATS the past few seasons when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. I feel they're currently stronger than the Bulldogs and I look for them to prove it tonight. *10 (Roast)

Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. Both these teams should be happy to step down in class as they've each been facing stronger teams recently. Both teams will view this as a game they can win. With an O/U line significantly less than 120, its expected to be a very low-scoring contest. That typically makes every point more meaningful. In this case, I feel the offensively-challenged Huskers are laying too large a number. We can't really fault the Huskers for losing their last four games. That's because those games came against the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois. The fact that they failed to score more than 55 points in any of those games, while managing only 40 twice, is rather disturbing though. True, those are all very good defensive teams - but the Huskers averaged just 47.25 points. They were competitive at Illinois last time out, losing by five - but the previous three losses all came by double-digits. Prior to that brutal 4-game stretch, the Huskers hosted Central Michigan. Despite laying -12.5 points, Nebraska won by only three. They'd previously beaten USC by three and "Florida Gulf Coast" by only one - while losing by two vs. Wake Forest. So, they're certainly very capable of playing close games; often the case for low-scoring and defensive-minded teams. Note that Nebraska is just 3-5 ATS the last eight times it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While they aren't a high-scoring team either, the Nittany Lions did score 82 last time out. That's more than the Huskers' managed in their games against Ohio State and Wisconsin combined! They haven't had success on the road yet - but the Nittany Lions should be feeling confident about their chances here. Prior to the 6-point loss vs. Indiana, the Nittany Lions pounded Purdue by a score of 65-45. The Huskers are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played a game when the O/U line was less than 120. That includes an 0-3 ATS mark at home. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times they played a game with an O/U line of less than 120, including a 2-0 ATS mark in road games with a total below the 120 mark. They're 4-1 ATS their last five in that situation. They're also 4-1 ATS the last five times they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. In a game that could easily come right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UCONN and West Virginia to finish UNDER the total. These teams are both capable of putting up solid offensive numbers. However, they're both also capable of being very stingy defensively. I expect a relatively low-scoring affair tonight and feel that the O/U line is generously high. The Mountaineers have seen three of their four conference games finish above the total. However, a closer look shows that they allowed less than 70 points in all four of those games and that they averaged "only" 138. The Huskies' conference games have been lower-scoring, they're averaging 133.5. Last year's meeting (at WVU) had an O/U line of 130.5. It finished with just 121, a 65-56 victory by the Mountaineers. The previous year's game was here at Connecticut. It had an O/U line of 137.5 and finished with 135, a 72-63 victory by the Huskies. Now playing their 16th game of the season, note that the Huskies have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 28-12-1 the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games have been played, During that stretch, the UNDER is also 34-18 when the Huskies were laying points. With the UNDER also an outstanding 21-8 the past few seasons when the Mountaineers were off a conference win, I expect a well played defensive game. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. The Hoyas have the higher ranking. However, I believe the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. I successfully played against Georgetown last time out. Laying -4 or -5 at home vs. Marquette, the Hoyas rallied for a comeback win. However, that victory came by only three points. So, they didn't cover. That's back-to-back ATS losses and two of their last three wins coming by three points. Give the Hoyas credit for finding a way to win but they won't be able to pull all these close ones out and I expect their good fortune to temporarily come to an end here. The Mountaineers did lose vs. Kent State here out of the gate. However, they've responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their last four home lined games, most recently a double-digit blowout of Villanova on 12/28. Their lone 2012 game was played on the road (at Rutgers) and saw them win by 21. So, they've got plenty of positive momentum and confidence here. The Mountaineers won by six at Georgetown last January, their fourth straight meeting in the series. Georgetown was ranked at the time, WVU wasn't. The last meeting here at WVU saw them win by 13. Beating ranked opponents here is "no big deal" to the Mountaineers. Three straight (and seven of the last nine) ranked opponents have left here with a loss. In need of a big win, I expect the Mountaineers to take down yet another ranked opponent here, continuing their recent dominance in this series. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Michigan and Indiana to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been profitable 'over' teams thus far. That's led to a high O/U line here. I feel it will prove to be too high. After a lot of high-scoring non-conference games, the Wolverines have started playing lower-scoring games, now that Big-Ten play has arrived. Two games ago, they beat Penn State by a score of 71-53. Last time out, they knocked off Minnesota by a score of 61-56. They've now held four of their last five opponents to 57 or fewer points. Indiana's last two games have been higher-scoring. The Hoosiers were matched up against Ohio State and Michigan State in their last two games though, two of the highest-scoring teams in the conference. Allowing 70 against Ohio State last time out wasn't bad, considering that the Buckeyes are still averaging 78+ per game. That game had almost exactly the same O/U line as this one. Yet, the Wolverines average significantly fewer points (70.9) than the Buckeyes. Prior to the games vs. Michigan State and Ohio State, note that the Hoosiers had allowed 47, 50 and 58 points. The Wolverines have now seen the UNDER go 12-7 in January games the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 13-6 when they were off a conference victory. The Hoosiers didn't have so many conference wins over that time, but they've seen the UNDER go 5-2 when they were coming off one. This is the highest O/U line these teams have had against each other for years; I feel its providing excellent value. *9

Reason: I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats are off back to back losses. Those games came at West Virginia and Marquette though. They nearly defeated Marquette too, losing by only four there. They're taking a step down in class here, while returning home at the same time. Hungry for a big win, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. As we saw in their 77 point effort at Marquette, the Wildcats can score. They average 72.9 per game, 79.2 The Bulls do play solid defense - but I expect them to have some trouble keeping up here. They average just 61.3 points per game, a mere 49 per game on the road. With the cover at Marquette, the Wildcats are now 15-3 ATS in January the past couple of seasons, as this has been their time to shine. That includes a 83-71 win and cover at USF almost exactly one year ago, on 1/6/2011. Laying -7.5, the Wildcats won by 12. The most recent meeting here at Villanova saw the Wildcats beat the Bulls by a score of 74-49. I expect the Wildcats to continue their January success with another double-digit victory here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARQUETTE. Having won 10 straight, the Hoyas have certainly put together and impressive winning streak. The Golden Eagles have already won 10 straight themselves this season though and I won't be surprised if they're the team that snaps Georgetown's streak tonight. Georgetown coach John Thompson knows not to be fooled by Marquette's ranking. He was quoted as saying:

Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. While they'll still be without their coach (so is St. John's) I expect the Huskies to be extremely focused here. That's because the Red Storm have actually beaten the Huskies in back to back meetings, blowing them out in both those games. Neither of those games was here at Connecticut though, where the Huskies have beaten the Red Storm seven straight times. While the Red Storm are off an impressive home win over Providence, I expect them to be in over their heads here. Winning on the road in the Big East is rarely easy and in this case the Red Storm are outclassed, in more ways than one. The Red Storm used only seven players Tuesday as they're short-handed due to player departures and eligibility issues. That won't cut it here. In addition to having far greater depth (and talent) the Huskies have a serious size advantage. Indeed, they've got five players in their regular rotation who are 6-foot-8 or taller, three of them are starters - St John's only has two. With all that size, its not surprising that the Huskies lead the Big East in blocks per game - they average 7.8 per game. If they have a weakness, its their three-point defense. However, the Red Storm aren't the type of team to exploit that, as they're the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. The Huskies, 16-6 ATS the last 22 times they were off a conference win, have beaten the Red Storm by 16, 16, 16 and 22 points the last four meetings here. With the Huskies looking for some "payback," I expect another one-sided result here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. This line has come down from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the undefeated home team. Thats right, the Cardinals check in with a perfect 12-0 record. Yet, because they've failed to cover a few in a row (and because Georgetown is also playing well) the line is very low. Some might expect the Cardinals to get caught looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with rival Kentucky. I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though - one which absolutely wants to keep the undefeated record in tact, before facing the Wildcats. As senior guard Chris Smith noted Tuesday: "We haven't talked about Kentucky one time yet, and we're going to keep it like that until we come out with a W tomorrow..." Coach Rick Pitino added: "One thing I've learned to do with my age, I really don't look ahead..." The fact that Georgetown beat Louisville (62-59 at Georgetown) in last year's lone meeting (and that they won here in 2010) should help in staying focused. The Cardinals have been playing very hard but we still haven't seen their best game recently - I feel that they're ready to elevate their level of play tonight. Pitino went on to note: "We are giving unbelievable effort to win. There have been four games where we should have gone down, but the effort is so great that we are winning, but we are not executing at the defensive end ... Now we have to get really good execution defensively to get ready for Georgetown and to win." Both teams are excellent defensively but I feel the Cardinals are capable of being even better than the Hoyas in that area. The Cards are holding teams to 36.3% from the field while the Hoyas are limiting opponents to 38.8%. Note that the percentage climbs all the way to 46.2% when Georgetown has played away from home. While the Hoyas are 16-10 on the road the past few seasons, the Cardinals are 45-6 at home. I expect them to "put it all together" and improve on those stats this evening, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DAYTON. The Flyers saw their 3-game winning streak come to an end last time out. They're now 16-4 SU their last 20 games played in the December, going 10-3 ATS in December lined games. Stepping down in class, I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion. Note that the last time the Flyers were off a loss, listed as +5.5 point underdogs, they bounced back and crushed Alabama by double-digits. Dayton coach Archie Miller had this to say of the Flames: I know they've had a really tough schedule. They've had some time off (four days) to play against us. We have a quick turnaround, and it's probably good that we do." Easy for Miller to say that as the Flyers are 10-5 the past few seasons, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games, going 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation this season. The last time they played with one day's rest in between games, listed as +4.5 point underdogs, they beat Minnesota by 16 points! The Flames are off a 1-point win last time out. That was at home against a relatively weak Western Michigan squad though. They're winless on the road - you may recall we played against them when they played at Oregon State - they were underdogs of roughly the same size that they are tonight and lost that one by 42 points! Note that the Flames are also 2-9 ATS (2-11 SU) the last 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. While I won't absolutely rely on it (and still like the Flyers either way) note that forward Luke Fabrizius, who leads Dayton in 3-point shooting at 46.2 percent, could be available today. After missing the last two games, he practiced (on a limited basis) Thursday and was reported to have full mobility. While the line may seem high, keep in mind what the Flames did as underdogs of this size at Corvallis. More importantly, note that the Flyers are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points, including 3-1 ATS as a home favorite in the -15.5 to -18 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in a big way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Tigers are off to an impressive 7-1 start to the season, most recently earning a 76-69 victory over Florida A&M on Monday. They're a long way from home here though and facing the host team in tonight's "Diamond Head Classic" tournament. I expect them to stumble. While coach Tony Barbee, who earned his 100th career victory last time out, is calling this a "business trip," the distractions of Hawaii - and the long trip here - can take a toll. Note the late start time (1:30 ET) may also affect the Tigers negatively. Note that ALL seven of Auburn's victories have come at home and that six of those came against teams with a losing record. The Tigers lost their lone road game. They're an awful 2-16 SU their last 18 on the road, dating back to last January. Hawaii, now 5-4, has won three straight. The Warriors are 13-7 SU their last 20 "home" games, going 11-7 ATS their last 18 lined games here. The Warriors are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of four or fewer points. They won five of those games outright and lost the other by a single points. Looking to get this tournament off to a winning start, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. Both these teams are off a disappointing losses. I expect the Crimson Tide to be the team which "bounces back." While this game is being labeled as a "neutral court" game, note that its being played at BJCC (Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex) Arena, which is in Birmingham, Alabama. So, the Tide will clearly have the fans behind them. As Alabama coach Anthony Grant noted: "We hope to get an excellent crowd out to support our team in Birmingham. I think it's a great opportunity for our fans that are in the Birmingham area to get a chance to see us live and in person." With this game being played at Birmingham, note that the Cowboys have just one win away from home this season. They're 0-4 SU when playing on a "neutral" court. Both teams are very capable; both play stingy defense. I feel Alabama is stronger though and believe the stats support that opinion. The Tide hit 45.2% of their shots, including 44.8% away from home. The Cowboys hit 42.1% of their shots but only 39.9% away from home. The Tide allow opposing teams to hit a mere 36.5% of their shots, 39.4% away from home. The Cowboys allow opposing teams to hit 38.7% of their shots. However, that number climbs to 41.6% on the road. While the Tide are outrebounding teams both home AND away, the Cowboys are being outrebounded by a 41.2 to 33.2 margin on the road. Despite failing to cover the spread in a few recent games, the Tide have been excellent in the favorite role the past few seasons. They're 33-9-1 SU and 25-16-1 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Cowboys are a terrible 11-20-1 ATS (7-25 SU) when listed as underdogs. The Tide are 3-1 ATS in "neutral" court games, including 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Playing in front of the Birmingham faithful and looking to avenge a loss at Oklahoma City last season, I expect them to rise to the occasion with a double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA. The Catamounts have had success against the Braves. Two years ago, playing at Bradley and listed as underdogs of roughly the same size they are tonight, they won outright. Last year, they followed up that 75-67 victory by again knocking off the Braves, a 66-65 "nailbiter." Speaking of "nailbiters," these teams have both been involved in a number of "close" games recently. I often found that teams get in a "habit" of playing close games and I won't be surprised if this one also "comes down to the wire." That said, I feel this number is generously high. The Catamounts have had a bit of a layoff, for exams. Prior to that, they lost by two points vs. Kent State, covering as a +6-point underdog. Their previous game saw them lose by only five points, at Purdue. Naturally, that was an easy cover, as they were heavy underdogs. Prior to that, their previous two games (both victories) were each decided by four points. Meanwhile, the Braves are off a 5-point loss of their own. Prior to that, they won by a single point. Going back further reveals that all five of their SU victories have come by 11 or fewer points, two of them coming by just one. Overall, the average score of Bradley's games has been 66.5 to 64.3, in favor of the opposition. Likewise, Western Carolina has been outscored by a very narrow (and identical 2.2 per game) margin overall, 67.7 to 65.5. Looking more at the "close game" theme - note that these two coaches are very familiar with each other. In fact, Western Carolina's Larry Hunter, in his 32nd season as a college head coach, coached Bradley's Geno Ford for four years at Ohio University. Also, Ford served on his staff for three years as an assistant. Hunter and Ford, teacher and pupil, have faced each other twice - both meetings coming when Ford was at Kent State. Both games very close. The first was decided in overtime, an 89-84 victory for Western Carolina. Ford won the rematch - but only by two points, a 74-72 victory for Kent State the following season. (In both cases, Hunter's Catamounts covered the spread.) The Braves are not in one of their better roles. They're just 9-15 ATS the past few seasons, when laying points. That includes a 0-3 ATS mark as a home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, the Catamounts have gone 17-13 ATS when getting points, including a profitable 3-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. I expect the Catamounts to improve on those stats here, as they take this game down to the wire with a solid shot at the outright upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Bradley has the (slightly) better record. However, I believe George Washington is the better team. Playing at home, I expect the Colonials to demonstrate that this evening. Yes, the Colonials enter on a losing streak and already have five losses. However, the five teams that beat them (Syracuse, Cal, K-State, VCU and Loyola MD) have a combined record of 38-7. Of those teams, VCU (6-3) has the worse record. So, the Colonials have certainly been facing some tough competition. In fact, the Colonials are the only Atlantic 10 Conference team to have played three true road games against programs from the six power conferences this season - California (Pac-12), Kansas State (Big XII) and Syracuse (Big East). Speaking of the A-10, the Colonials have one of the A-10's better backcourts led by Senior Tony Taylor, a preseason First Team All-Atlantic 10 selection, and junior Lasan Kromah. When matched up against teams currently with five or fewer victories, the Colonials have gone a perfect 4-0. Tonight's game will mark the Braves' fourth away from home in their last five games. That's significant as Bradley has not won away from Renaissance Coliseum in Peoria, going 0-3. That includes one "true road game" and a pair of neutral site losses in the Chicago Invitational Challenge. Going back further finds the Braves are an ugly 6-19 SU their last 25 road games. The Braves are off a win vs. Northeastern, their most "impressive" victory of the season. However, as noted, that wasn't on the road. Their only "true" road game resulted in a 17-point loss and their other four victories (all at home) all came against extremely weak opposition. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Colonials haven't had as long a gap since their last game. They last played on 12/10, a "healthy" amount of time in between games. However, the Braves last played on 12/6, which is a longer break than is ideal. While the Braves are averaging only a mere 50.3 points (38.2% shooting) away from home, the Colonials are holding opponents to 56.5 points and 36.3% shooting here at home. I expect homecourt to be the difference as the Colonials bounce back from the loss at Syracuse with a much needed win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Illinois and Coppin State to finish UNDER the total. Obviously, the Illini are heavy favorites here. I feel there's more value with the total though. A look at Illinois' results shows that the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 when the Illini were favored by seven or fewer points. However, when favored by more than that (games which had a total) the UNDER is a perfect 3-0. Laying -10, they beat St Bonaventure 48-43 last time out, a game which stayed below the number by nearly 40 points. They allowed 59 and 46 points in the other two games that they were favored by more than seven. For the season, the Illini are limiting teams to only 53.3 on this floor, hitting 36% of their shots. Coppin State, which is shooting less than 40% on the season, may not even get that many. Last time out, Coppin State won but only scored 53, a 53-50 victory. Last time it faced a "good" team (Purdue) Coppin State scored 57. With the UNDER a highly profitable 20-9 the L29 times that Illinois played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, I'm expecting a dominant defensive effort from the Illini, leading to a relatively low-scoring affair overall. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. I successfully played against the Bulldogs when they were facing a Big-Ten opponent in their last game. That was at Illinois though and the Illini are a perfect 9-0 on the season. They're facing another big name team from the Big-Ten conference this week. Back home in the Pacific Northwest, I expect a much different result. Note that the Bulldogs crushed Notre Dame by 20 points in their last game here. The Bulldogs did lose a couple of key players from last year's team. Leading scorer and rebounder Steven Gray is gone, as is point guard Dmitri Goodson. That said, the cupboard is far from bare. Indeed, this extremely well-coached club still brings back one of the best and most experienced frontcourts in the nation, led by Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. With freshman sensation Kevin Pangos leading the charge, they've also got a number of "sharpshooting" guards. (You may have watched Pangos hit NINE 3-pointers on ESPN, in Gonzaga's win over Washington State.) Like Gonzaga, the well-coached Spartans are always tough. However, this year's team suffered several key losses (like #1 scorer Lucas, #3 scorer Summers, to name a couple) and is still quite young. While less experienced, I also believe the Spartans are less talented than last season. The Spartans are off back to back blowout wins. However, those games both came against 1-AA teams and they were both at home - they didnt have a line for those games. Prior to that, they did beat Florida State. That was a solid victory, arguably their only win against a real "quality" opponent. However, it also came at home. While they were beaten by Duke and UNC in "neutral court" games, the Spartans have only played one true road game - and that was against Eastern Michigan. Obviously, this is a MUCH tougher venue. Indeed, the Bulldogs are 120-9 here under coach Few. That includes a perfect 14-0 record when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5. Note that the Spartans are an ugly 3-11 ATS in lined games the past few seasons, when off a game in which they scored 80 or more. During the same stretch, the Bulldogs were 8-4 ATS in lined games, when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion this evening. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Wildcats are slight favorites here. However, I look for the 49'ers to score the "upset." The Wildcats are off to a strong start, their best since the 2008-09 season. They started off 8-1 that year. However, they're off a close loss last time out and now must go on the road and face a "cross county rival." Off that close loss and with an 8-game exam break to follow, I won't be surprised if they're a little flat here. While not being asked to cover much here, it still worth noting that Davidson has been a horrible favorite in recent seasons. In fact, the Wildcats are a money-burning 12-29 ATS the last 41 times they were laying points. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark, when listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points. On the other hand, the 49ers are on a 3-game winning streak and they're already 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs this season. Getting +3 points, they won by four at Wright State. Getting +5.5 points, they won by a dozen at East Carolina. During its current three-game win streak, Charlotte has held each of its opponents under 40% shooting. Note the Charlotte's lone home loss came by a single point. While Davidson coach Bob McKillop has had plenty of success overall, he's just 7-17 against the 49ers. Also, note that Davidson has NEVER won here at Halton Arena. Charlotte is a perfect 6-0 SU in six all-time meetings here. Even 32 points from Stepen Curry wasn't enough for the Wildcats to win their last visit here. Davidson does return nearly all of its weapons from a team that beat Charlotte (at Davidson) last season. However, the 49ers also brought back four starters (their top 4 scorers) and they'll be looking for some payback for last season's defeat. While only 10-20 last season, the 49ers are better this season and they were arguably better than last season's record indicated - they had four OT losses and eight losses by six or less. Keep in mind that they beat a Top 10 team last season, while also being the only A-10 team to beat Xavier during the regular season. On a roll and playing with confidence, I expect the revenge-minded 49ers to avenge last season's loss, continuing their homecourt dominance in the series. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on IDAHO. While the Beavers have gotten off to a great start, I believe this line will prove to be too high. Both teams have shown a tendency of playing fairly "close" games thus far. The Vandals are off a 2-point home loss vs. Washington State last time out. They're 4-4 SU on the season but a closer look reveals that ALL four of those losses came by eight or fewer points. In fact, the four losses came by an average of only 5.5 points. Note that in their last road game, the Vandals won by 20 points. Including that blowout win, they're a perfect 3-0 ATS in their lined road games. The Beavers are off back to back "blowout" wins. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to drive this line up higher. Their previous three games were all decided by 10 or less though, including a home win over Hofstra. The Vandals are 3-0 SU/ATS on Friday nights the past couple of seasons. Going back further finds them at 11-4 ATS their last 15 lined Friday games. More importantly, they're also 15-7-3 ATS the last 25 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 range. I look for them to improve on those stats tonight, as the final score proves closer than most will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 2-game winning streak and boasting a national ranking. I expect that to change at the BankUnited Center tonight though. The Tigers have faced some tough opponents already, as they've faced the likes of Michigan, Tennessee and Georgetown. However, all of those were "neutral court" games and the Tigers were just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. This will be their first "true road game" of the season and it comes at a very difficult venue. The Hurricanes are 5-0 here at the BankUnited Center this season. Note that they were 13-4 at home in 2010-11. Going back further finds that Miami has an 86-31 record at home since joining the ACC for the 2004-05 season and the Canes are 100-44 overall in this arena. Throw in the fact that they're a perfect 27-0 the last 27 times that they hosted a non-conference opponent and this is indeed a very challenging venue. In fact, Miami's last non-conference home loss came against Ohio State, in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, way back on Dec, 2, 2008. While the Tigers are potent offensively, the Hurricanes are stingy defensively, particularly here at home. While scoring more than 70 themselves, they're allowing just 60.4 points per game here, limiting opponents to 38.7% shooting. Miami's tough defense caused the O/U line to come out at 139.5 (although its likely to go up) which is worth noting as the Tigers are an ugly 7-17-1 ATS the last 25 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s, including 1-4 ATS their last five road games with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. While those O/U stats may not prove relevant, if the line climbs into the 140s, it IS relevant that the Tigers are only 7-10 ATS their last 17 against teams which allow 64 or less points per game and just 3-13 ATS their past 16 lined games, after scoring 80 or more in their previous game. Off a win last time out and looking to avenge a loss from last season, I expect the Hurricanes to keep their perfect home record in tact, as well as their streak against non-conf. opponents here. *9

Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. The Titans are off to a slow 3-6 start and they've got a poor 1-5 ATS mark. I believe they're better than those stats suggest though. That said, with the early results factored into the line, I feel the Titans are providing us with excellent value. True, the Titans have a poor record. However, they've been far more competitive than the record indicates. They lost by five vs. a good Cleveland State team last time out. (The Vikings are 8-1 thus far.) Prior to that, they lost by only three vs. Youngstown State, another team off to a solid (5-2) start. Throw in a pair of six-point losses, one of them on a neutral court and the other at Notre Dame, and this team could easily have a much better record than it does. In fact, the Titans are both outscoring and outrebounding their opponents. One could argue that St. John's has been less impressive. The Red Storm did cover vs. Kentucky last time out - but they still lost by 22, covering by a basket. Prior to that, they lost by 14 vs. Northeastern, a game they were favored by nine points for. The "best" team that they have beaten is William and Mary and that came at home. While Detroit is outrebounding opponents by a 37.4 to 35 margin (39.2 to 31.7 at home) St. John's is being outrebounded by a 38.7 to 34.6 margin. While St John's obviously hails from the better conference, the Horizon League is no joke either. Also, keep in mind that this is a Detroit team which is 24-11 SU its last 35 home games. These teams haven't faced each other since 1998. The Titans scored an "upset" in that one, earning a narrow 66-64 win and cover. I expect history to repeat itself and the Titans, 3-0 ATS their last three against the Big East, to "get the cash" once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Gonzaga checks in with an undefeated record a Top 20 national ranking. Illinois may not have the Top 20 ranking yet, however, the Illini are also undefeated. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Illini to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season. The Illini are almost always tough defensively and that appears to be the case again this year. Last time out, they held Maryland to a 5-for-19 performance from 3-point range, en route to limiting the Terps to just 61 points, at Maryland. For the season, the Illini are holding opponents to just 35.8% shooting, including a mere 32.6% here at home. Note that Gonzaga is a poor 52-65 ATS over the years, when matched up against a team that allows less than 64 points per game. In last year's meeting, the Illini limited the Bulldogs to just 40.7% shooting including a mere 3-of-16 (18.7%) from beyond the arc. The Illini won that one by a score of 73-61. While Gonzaga is certainly a good team, I expect another victory here, with the Illini covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Fav

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. I won with Indiana last game, so I definitely respect the Hoosiers. That said, that was a home game vs. Butler, an "instate rival." I felt that the Hoosiers were sick of playing second fiddle to the Bulldogs in their own state and that they'd make the most of the opportunity to kick Butler while it was down. They did just that, winning by 16. Off to a perfect start, each win coming by double-digits and off that win over a "rival," I won't be surprised if the Hoosiers suffer a bit of an "emotional letdown" here. That will spell trouble as the Wolfpack are perfect at home, outscoring opponents by a 79.2 to 65.2 margin here. They've hit better than 49% of their shots here thus far. The Wolfpack did lose vs. Vanderbilt but responded by beating Texas 77-74 in their next game. Having also beaten Princeton by two points, they've been involved in some close games - unlike the Hoosiers - and that "close game experience" may serve them well here. Note that they followed up the win over the Longhorns by beating Elon by double-digits, their third win by at least nine points. So, they've won some close games but, like the Hoosiers, the Wolfpack have also shown they can win in "blowout fashion." The Hoosiers have only played one road game this season. While they won that one, it came at Evansville. So, it wasn't nearly as tough a venue as this one. While this is an improved team, keep in mind that the Hoosiers have been horrible on the road in recent seasons. Its also worth noting that the Hoosiers are only 3-7 the last 10 times that they faced at team which averages better than 77 points per game. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 in ACC-Big Ten Challenges, when playing on the road. However, they're 4-1 when playing them at home. With a win also getting them a cover, I expect the Wolfpack to remain perfect when listed as the home team. *10

Reason: I'm playing on VANDERBILT. These are both very good teams. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start while Vanderbilt has dropped a game, checking in at 5-1. Its true that the Musketeers have had plenty of success against SEC teams in the recent past. In fact, they beat Georgia in their very last game. However, the Commodores are a lot better than Georgia and this will be Xavier's first true road game of the young season. Note that the Commodores have won an impressive 38 of 41 home games against non-conference opponents, dating back to 2007. Xavier forward Andre Walker, a Vanderbilt transfer, knows his old team is tough, even without its starting center. He was quoted as saying: "They're a very tough-minded, defensive-oriented team. They like to push the ball in transition and have a very high-powered offense." Also, note that Xavier has lost its last four road games against ranked opponents. The Commodores weren't happy with their effort last time out. I look for them to come out "on a mission," defending their homecourt and covering the small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANA. I've won with Butler many times the past few years and have ridden the Bulldogs heavily and successfully during tournament action. That said, I've also been successful at picking my spots to go against the Bulldogs. I feel this will be a good spot to do so. While the competition has admittedly been a little weak, the Hoosiers are a perfect 5-0. All five wins have come by 20+ points. Butler, on the other hand, has already lost twice. Granted, one of those losses came against Louisville, so that one's "excusable." Still, the Bulldogs didn't look good. They were a +4 point underdog and lost by 16. Their other loss came by "only" three points. However, that was against Evansville, a team which Indiana hammered by 21 points. Overall, the Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. In addition to Evansville, the Hoosiers and Bulldogs have already had three other common opponents. This is rare this early in the season and is able to give us some insight about the current level of each program. Both teams faced and defeated Garnder Webb. However, while Butler won by only two points, Indiana won by 24! Indiana beat Savannah State by 29 and Tennessee Chatanooga by 25. Butler beat those teams by 15 and 11 points, respectively. As great as story as the Bulldogs have been in recent seasons, keep in mind that they lost their best player, Gordon Hayward, to the NBA draft following their first NCAA Championship game appearance. Then, they lost their two best players in Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard from last year's team to graduation and the NBA draft. Butler does have some solid talent still and the well-coached Bulldogs always play hard. The Hoosiers are also playing hard though and have arguably more talent. The Hoosiers have gone through a down period in recent years but are coming out of it now. They're sick of taking a back seat to Butler in the state of Indiana and I look for them to keep on rolling with another double-digit victory. *10 Big Easy

I'm playing on Butler and UConn OVER the total. I feel that these are both very capable defensive teams and I've successfully played on the "under" numerous times with each of them, including Butler in the Finals last season. That said, I also respect both offenses and I feel that this number will prove to be too low.

While these teams saw O/U lines in the 130s and 140s on Saturday, thanks in large part to both those games staying below the total, today's O/U line is way down in the 120s. That means that if we can just get 70 from the winning team, we'll need just 60 from the loser and we'll hit 130 and be able to cash our tickets. Given the average game scores of both teams, I feel that's not asking too much.

The Bulldogs scored 70 against VCU and average more than 72 per game on the season. Their games have averaged 136.5 combined points.

While the Huskies managed only 56 points vs. Kentucky, they'd scored at least 65 points in each of their previous 10 games. They average 72.8 points per game on the season and their games average 138.2.

The OVER is 6-3-1 when the Bulldogs were listed as underdogs and 5-2 when they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. That's also been a profitable 'over' situation for the Huskies this season, as they've seen the OVER go 3-1 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s.

In games which had a total, the Bulldogs have also seen the OVER go 8-2 the last 10 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. I look for those stats to improve here with the OVER moving to 8-3 when the Bulldogs have played on a neutral court. *10

I'm playing on Kentucky and Connecticut to finish UNDER the total. I've successfully played on the Wildcats to finish below the total in each of their last two games. Their game vs. UNC was "close" to the number but their game vs. Ohio State stayed below the total by roughly 20 points. If we can avoid OT, I look for this one to also stay below the total.

The Wildcats have now seen the UNDER go 7-1-1 or 7-2 their last nine games, depending on when/where one played their game vs. West Virginia. Despite facing some outstanding offensive teams, they've now allowed less than 70 points in 10 straight games. Nine of those 10 opponents shot less than 45% from the field. Only Princeton, at 46%, topped that mark. (The Tigers still managed only 57 points though.)

I also won with the Huskies "under" in their last game. Facing an Arizona team which had just lit up Duke for 93 points, UConn gave up a mere 63. Naturally, that 65-63 victory stayed well below the posted total. Including that result, the UNDER is now 4-1 the Huskies' last five games.

Despite facing some excellent offenses, the Huskies have held six straight opponents to less than 45% shooting from the field, including less than 43% in all NCAA Tournament games. Arizona finished at just 39.3%.

The Huskies have seen the UNDER go 23-11 the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. During that stretch, the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go 24-21-1 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. While those stats aren't impressive, if we go back further, we find the UNDER at a lucrative 84-53-3 their last 140 in that situation.

These teams played a high-scoring game (84-67) against each other back in November. That game was one-sided from the beginning though, as the Huskies jumped out to a 50-29 halftime lead. This one should be much closer, which I expect to translate to a much lower-scoring contest. Note that the 2009 meeting, between these teams, was much closer. It had an O/U line of 147 but finished with only 125 combined points, a 64-61 Kentucky victory. Only 52 points were scored in the first half. With both defenses in excellent form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on Wichita St. and Alabama to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on Alabama to finish below the total in its last game. The Tide beat Colorado by a score of 62-61. That's an impressive defensive effort against any team. However, given that Colorado entered that game having scored more than 80 points in five straight games, Alabama's performance on the defensive performance was downright outstanding.

In my analysis of the Alabama/Colorado game, I noted the following:

"...The Buffaloes have been putting up big points against some relatively solid defenses. However, this will arguably by far the stingiest one they'll have seen. Alabama allowed the fewest points per game in the entire SEC, less than teams like Kentucky and Florida. In fact, opposing teams are managing a mere 59.2% of their shots against Alabama, hitting only 38.2% of their shots.

For the season, Crimson Tide games are averaging just 126.5 combined points. Note that the UNDER is a profitable 8-2 the last 10 times that Alabama was a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points.

Alabama has played 12 straight games which have finished with 143 or fewer combined points. In fact, 25 of its last 26 games have finished with 143 or less..."

Of course, the O/U line is significantly lower this time. However, that's because Alabama is matched up against a much lower-scoring team than it was last game.

Wichita State, also a very "stingy" team, is coming off a defensive performance which was arguably even better than Alabama's. Indeed, the Shockers held Washington State to a mere 44 points on only 29.4%. (The Cougars had scored 69, 74, 85 and 87 their previous four games.)

The Shockers have now seen the UNDER go 4-1 in neutral court games. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 21-9 their last 30 neutral court games, which had a total, and 20-8 their last 28 games (with a total) when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. I expect a defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 3-0 in Alabama's last three tournament championship games. *10

I'm playing on Creighton and Oregon to finish UNDER the number. The first game of this series, at Creighton, finished above the total. The Bluejays won that one by as core of 84-76. That result has helped to provide us with a few extra points on the O/U line to work with, as this line is higher than that one was. However, with the venue switching to Oregon, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair.

Creighton is a team which scores far fewer points on the road than it does at home. The Bluejays score only 64 points per game on the road. (The Blue Jays entered Monday's game averaging 72 points per game at home.) However, they're also a team which allows roughly the same number of points on the road as it does at home.

Overall, Creighton games are now averaging 134.2 points. Oregon games also averaging less than 140 points, (139.7) yet we're getting an O/U line in the high 140s.

The Ducks have seen the UNDER go 14-7 the last 21 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During that stretch, Creighton has seen the UNDER go 13-6 as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark in that situation the past few seasons.

The UNDER is also 9-5 the last 14 times that the Bluejays were listed as underdogs. Look for those stats to improve tonight as the final combined score stays beneath the generously high number. *10