Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on G-TOWN 10* PERS FAV. Though they were unable to cover, I believe that the Hoyas will be able to carry some positive momentum from Saturday's victory over UConn. The Hoyas were down big in that one but were able to storm back in the second half. Off that momentum-building comeback, the Hoyas will now get a chance to avenge a recent loss at Providence. While the Friars are an outstanding 11-1 when listed as the home team, they're a dismal 1-6 in seven games away from Providence. They won a neutral site game against Memphis in November and have lost every game away from Providence since. That includes a loss at lowly Depaul, last time out. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 8* ANNIHIALTOR. The Panthers are still seeking their first conference win and the Bulldogs should provide the perfect opportunity. Its true that Drake has played better since Jeff Rutter (a former UNI assistant) took over as coach. However, they're far from being a strong team. All their "success" has come at home too, as the Bulldogs are 0-8 when playing away from home. They've lost their two 2017 road games by 39 combined points. The Panthers are 23-4 SU (17-5 ATS in lined games) their last 27 against sub-500 teams. They've dominated Drake for years and they won last year's two games by 49 combined points, including a 77-44 destruction here at NIU. Look for them to "get healthy" with another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I'm playing on VT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Irish have a strong team this season and are playing well. They're worthy of their top 25 ranking and already have some impressive road wins under their belt. That said, this is a very tough spot, as they'll be playing their second ACC tough road game in three days.

That may not sound like much but its a situation that will only happen to three other teams in the ACC this season. In addition to ND, only Duke, UNC and Louisville will have to play two ACC road games with a day in between this reg. season. Don't expect the Hokies to show them any sympathy. VT was one of three teams to have to play two ACC road games in 3 days last season; the Hokies lost both games. 

The Hokies know this is a great opportunity. They're undefeated on this floor including a double-digit win over Duke. True, the Blue Devils were without Allen for that one. Stil, this is a VT team which plays with confidence on its home floor. Off a double-digit win against Syracuse here last time out, they've now won 15 straight here.

The Hokies gave the Irish all they could handle at ND last year, losing by two as double-digit underdogs. With the schedule and venue now in their favor, I expect them to return the favor, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on MIDDLE TENN. STATE 10* PERS FAV. This is a big game between the last two with undefeated records in C-USA. The Thundering Herd have had this one circled ever since the Blue Raiders knocked them out of the conference tournament last season. As you may recall, the Raiders would go on to the NCAA Tournament, where they'd knock off Michigan State, a stunning #15 vs. #2 seed upset.

Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for though. Wanting to beat the Raiders and actually doing so are two different matters. While last year's tourney loss was at a neutral site, the Herd are 0-2 SU/ATS their last two visits here, losing by an average of 24 points. Middle Tennessee State outscored them by a combined 173-125 margin. Including those results, the Raiders are a dominating 72-13 here since the 2011-12 season.

Sure, Marshall is expected to get Terrence Thompson back, after he missed a dozen games or so. He's likely to be eased in though. Marshall's coach Dan D'Antoni noted: "If we win, it's a big step up. If we lose, they're going to make us better." Given that the only road wins Marhall has are at FAU and FIU, I expect it to be the latter. Raiders with a statement win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The Tigers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Tigers' football team pounded the Aggies here a little less than two months ago, winning by 15 points. I expect the Aggies' basketball team to avenge that 11/24 loss in a big way Wednesday, winning by at least as big a margin. 

To say this is is a "must win" game for the Aggies, who are 0-3 in SEC play, is an understatement. Remember, this is a team which went to the Sweet 16 last season, its 13th appearance at the Big Dance. They're likely going to need 21 wins to get in there this season and there are only 16 games + the SEC Tournament remaining. Basically, if they don't win this game, they'd need to score an upset against either WVU or Kentucky. Needless to say, taking care of business here should be a much easier task. 

The Tigers are off a 17-point loss vs. Mississippi State last time out, their third loss in four games. Those three losses came by an average of greater than 19 points. 

While the Aggies have several losses, they've been close to winning some big games. They stayed within four points of both ranked USC and Arizona. When the Aggies have won, its mostly been by a comfortable margin; three of their last four victories have been by a minimum of 12 points. They're stepping down in class here, while the Tigers are stepping up in class. 

The Aggies were laying -7.5 when hosting the Tigers last January. They won by 14. That brought them to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host of the Tigers and 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. Badly in need of a big win, I'm expecting another double-digit margin.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* ANNIHILATOR. I successfully backed the Aztecs on Christmas Day, in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic tournament in Hawaii. That trip resulted in a bit of a hangover, as they came back and home and were upset by the Lobos on New Year's Day. Not all that shocking a loss, given the travel and holidays. Next, the Aztecs had to play back-to-back road games. They battled in each but ended up coming up short in both of them. Thats going to have them in a foul mood tonight; they'll be looking to take out their anger on somebody and the Spartans, which lost their last two road games by 25 and 19 points, should be the perfect team to do that against. Note that the Aztecs won by 32 points earlier this season, after losing three straight. Including that victory, they're 4-2-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the last seven times that they were off three consecutive pointspread defeats, 29-17-4 ATS their last 50. The Aztecs won last season's meetings by 15 and 22 points. I'm expecting another blowout.

I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE 10* PERS FAV. While they didn't cover, I really like the way that the Panthers won their last game. Down seven points late, in danger of losing three in a row, playing without freshman guard D'Marcus Simonds for the third consecutive game, and also with Jeremy Hollowell and Willie Clayton having both fouled out, the Panthers closed the game on an 8-0 run to win by a point. While they may again be without Simonds, currently questionable as of this writing, now the Panthers know that they can win without him. Thats the type of comeback victory that they can build positive momentum from. 

While the Panthers are off a momentum-building win, the Trojans are off back-to-back close (deflating) road losses. They haven't played a game on their home floor in ages, as their last six have all been on the road, or a neutral site. They finally play at home next game, but look for the road-weariness to hit them here. The home team won both meetings last season and homecourt means a lot to both teams again this year. Troy is 3-7 away from home, Georgia State is 5-1 at home. The Trojans score 72.5 on the road while the Panthers score 85.3 at home. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* BEST BET. These teams have battled each other for the top spot in the conference in recent seasons. Both lost some key personnel from last year's teams. Admittedly, the Shockers have adjusted much better than the Panthers, at least thus far. Despite losing their three top scorers from last season, the Shockers are undefeated in conference action and 13-3 overall. While the Panthers overall record is indeed pretty poor, keep in mind that they've faced the likes of UNC, Iowa and Xavier (twice). They've beaten teams like Oklahoma and Arizona State and no team has beaten them by more than four points on this floor. They're only allowing 57.4 ppg here. While the Shockers are off a couple of blowout wins, those both came at home and both against weaker teams. They won their last road game by eight. The last two meetings were both decided by five points or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on UAB 10* GAME OF WEEK. Admittedly, losing Nick Norton back in November was a blow. However, these Blazers are still a formidable team. A look at the Blazers' schedule shows that the've alternated wins and losses all season long. Every win has been followed by a loss. Every loss has been followed by a win. Much of that has been due to circumstance though, as the Blazers have had to play against team like Kansas and St. Mary's after a win, as well as at venues like Memphis, Texas and Middle Tennessee State. Rice can also be pretty tough to beat at home. However, I believe that the battle-tested Blazers will be up for the challenge. This is a team that still believes its the best in the conference. Having already lost at Middle Tennessee State on this trip, followed by a win at North Texas, the Blazers badly want to assert themselves - and to finally win two in a row - with a victory here. 

The Owls are just 4-7-1 ATS when laying points the past 2+ seasons and that includes an 0-1 ATS mark when listed as home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Blazers, who were 14-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when facing a team witha winning record through at least 15 games of the season, have had a chance to bounce back from their loss to the Blue Raiders, the Owls have not. UAB comes off a potentially momentum-building 2-point win while Rice comes off a potentially deflating 3-point loss. Note that the Owls, who lost that one by an 80-77 score, are just 6-10 ATS their last 16 lined games, after allowing 80 or more points. UAB has won five of the past six meetings, including a 12-point win last January. With both teams off very close games, I could see this one also coming down to the wife and am taking the points. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 8* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Pirates have been winning but not covering. They're 11-3 in the standings by 4-8 at the betting window. This should be a good spot to pick up a win in both those columns. A look at the first part of this season's schedule shows that the Pirates never had much of a chance to catch their breath in 2016. Since their opening game on 11/11, they didn't have a break of more than four nights until after their 12/17 win against Delaware. After getting five nights off, they responded with a win and cover vs. Rutgers. They came out of the Christmas Break (still only with four nights off) and lost at Creighton - no shame in that - before beating Marquette by three last time out, failing to cover (against the closing line) by half a point.

While they may not have beaten the closing number, the Pirates figure to gain some positive momentum from the win over Marquette. Having not played since New Year's Day, they've finally got some proper time off. Note that with the Rutgers win, they're 6-1 ATS and 7-1 SU the last eight times that they played with five or six day's rest.

While the Pirates bring some positive momentun, the Blue Demons are going the other way. They've lost four straight are winless on the road. While the Blue Demons are averaging 62 ppg on the road, the Pirates are outscoring teams by a 81.7 to 65.7 margin here at home. With three straight road games on deck, I expect them be all business here. 

I'm playing on VALPARAISO 10* MAIN EVENT. This is a huge game in the Horizon. While I repect Oakland, I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. The Crusaders, 7-1 at home this season, were the regular season champs last season, winning 25 games. With a total in the mid-high 140s, note that the Crusaders are a highly profitable 40-22 ATS over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. During that stretch, on the other hand, the Golden Grizzlies are just 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 145.5 to 149 range. The women's Grizzlies absolutely destroyed the women's Crusaders team on New Year's Eve. Look for the men to exact some revenge here, showing that they're still the team to beat in the Horizon. At least, for now. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY 10* HC GAME OF YEAR. If you're looking for an "exciting" Friday game in the Horizon, you'd probably be better served checking out Oakland/Valparaiso. (They're currently the top two teams in the conference and they'll be going head-to-head at 9 ET on ESPN2.) Thats because I expect this one to be pretty lopsided. 

While the Valparaiso/Oakland game might be stealing the spotlight, its the Phoenix who lead the Horizon League in scoring. They're averaging a whopping 80.8 ppg. They've won four in a row and have scored 90 or more in three of those. They're going to come in full of confidence and knowing that they'll be gaining a game against one of the top two teams in the conference, provided they take care of business tonight. 

While the Phoenix are averaging over 80 ppg and over 90 ppg on their home floor, the Panthers are averaging a paltry 65.3 overall and just 64 away from home. Given their offensive shortcomings, its not all that surprising to learn that the Panthers are an ugly 5-12 ATS (4-13 SU) their last 17 against teams which score more than 77 ppg. 

The Panthers are playing their third straight road game, the first time that they opened Horizon League play with three straight on the road since the 2000-2001 season. Now 1-7 on the road, they've only played four games in their own building. Competing hard but coming up short in the first two games figures to take a toll on them here. The Panthers could have easily beaten Youngstown State but ended up blowing it and losing 88-87, in OT. They gave up a game-tying 3-pointer with 0.2 seconds left in that one. Next, they fought back late at Cleveland State, only to come up short. Now losers of six straight, its going to be hard for them to have much confidence. 

While the Panthers tested them last season, the Phoeix have still dominated them in recent seasons. I expect them to put up a big number again tonight, and for the Panthers to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on SF 10* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Dons on Christmas Day. Playing in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic, they lost against San Diego State. That trip took a bit of a toll, as they have failed to cover in either game since. Still, they did play very well even to get to the finals of that tournament as they had to beat Utah in the opening round to do so. Not bad considering that the Utes haven't lost a game since (most recently crushing Colorado on 1/1) and that they've only lost two other games (at Xavier and vs. Butler) all season. After beating the Utes, the Dons beat a limited a half decent Illinois State squad to just 58 points. The Dons have only lost four times overall on the season and none of those losses came by more than 14 points. For last season's meeting here, Gonzaga was laying -13.5 points and won by just eight; three of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 or less. Including last year's non-cover here, Gonzaga is just 2-6 ATS the last eight times it was laying more than a dozen points on the road. While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that this line will again prove to be too high.

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Commodores have dominated the Tigers for ears. They won last season's games by 47 combined points. I expect them to continue that domination this evening. The Tigers suffered their third loss of the season last time out. To their credit, they've done a good job at bouncing back from the previous two. However, this latest loss was different. First of all, it came in conference play - they're just 8-19 SU off a conf. loss the past 2+ seasons. Worse, it came in a game where they held a 12-point second half lead, eventually losing by 12. The Tigers had been rolling before that second half meltdown, arguably riding as high as they had at any point since the last time (2003) they went to the NCAA Tournament. To lose in that manner, in the first game back from Christmas, figures to be a tough pill to swallow, going into the new year. Also, Vanderbilt is much better than either of the two teams (USC Upstate and Coastal Carolina) that Auburn previously bounced back from losses against. The Commodores followed up a cover at Dayton with a win/cover at LSU. Back home, where they've won three straight and five of six, I expect them to continue their positive momentum and their dominance in this series.

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played on the Jayhawks a couple of weeks ago, in their 89-71 win over Davidson. Since that time, they won at UNLV and TCU but failed to cover at either venue. I felt that the Jayhawks, who are as loaded as ever, were going to be a little extra motivated for the Davidson game. Back home now, facing their instate "rival," and having allowed 80 or more points for just the second time this season, the Jayhawks should again look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Not only have the Jayhawks dominated the Wildcats for years, but they're also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more points, going a lucrative 49-24 ATS in that situation over the years. While the Wildcats have an impressive record, they have yet to face a team anything like the one they'll see here. Note that the Wildcats, who are off a win vs. Texas, are just 4-10 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference victory. Kansas was laying -12.5 points for the last meeting and won by a 22-point margin. I expect another one-sided result, the Jayhawks pulling away and improving to 13-7 ATS (19-1 SU) the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. 

I'm playing on JAMES MADISON 10* BEST BET. The Tigers check in with the better record but the Dukes are the team which enters 2017 with some positive momentum. James Madison closed out 2016 with back-to-back victories, including a double-digit blowout of Drexel on New Year's Eve. This is a team which is finally starting to come together and they'll be highly motivated to keep the roll going here. The Tigers closed 2016 with a blowout loss. They're 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season, losing both games outright. That brings them to 7-13 ATS their last 20 when laying points. During that stretch, the Tigers are also just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. During that span, the Dukes are 11-7 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s, 2-1 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range.JMU won by 14 in last season's meeting here, while losing by two at Towson. I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on CAL 10* PERS FAV. I believe that the Sun Devils are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After 27 straight wins here, the Bears have dropped back-to-back games. Don't expect it to happen a third time. Those last two losses both came against ranked teams and the Sun Devils represent a significant step down in class.  ASU does have a couple of fairly impressive wins under its belt already, San Diego State earlier and Stanford last time out. The Sun Devils also already have six losses though. All six came by a minimum of eight points and five came by double-digits. While they do deserve some credit for the win at Stanford, they'll be playing the second of b2b road games here, a stretch which will see them play five of their first seven Pac-12 games on the road, and it figures to catch up with them here. With road games at UCLA and USC on deck, the Bears know they can ill afford to take the Sun Devils lightly. They won't. Cal bounces back big. 

I'm playing on STANFORD 10* BB. Going against the Cats cost me a couple of times in December but that won't stop me from doing so here, as I believe this is an excellent spot for Stanford. The fact that the Cardinal have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, combined with Arizona's recent run of success, has driven the line up a little higher than it could have been otherwise. The only previous time that the Cardinal failed to cover three straight, they got an extra generous line as an underdog against Seton Hall. They ended up winning outright by double-digits. The Cardinal, 34-10 their last 44 home games, have still only lost two games here this season and only one of those (St. Mary's) came by more than five points. Both teams had New Year's Eve off, after they each played 12/30. That scheduling situation figures to be a little more familar to the Cardinal. While Arizona is 0-1, when playing with one day or less of rest, Stanford is already 4-0 in that situation. The only time that Arizona did play with one day or less worth of rest resulted in an outright loss against Butler. The fact that the Cats have had time off in between all their other games has helped with their injury issues. I expect it to catch up to them tonight though as a motivated Stanford team steps up and earns at least a cover. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* GOM. While the Wolfpack have been beating up on some weak teams, the Hurricanes have been winning but not covering. That's brought this afternoon's line down lower than it easily could have been. I believe thats providing us with very fair value here. Note that the Canes are 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 83.7 ppg, to go along with a 47.8% opponent's shooting percentage, when playing on the road. The Canes, on the other hand, are allowing just 57 ppg here at home, holding visiting teams to a 35.6% shooting percentage. The Wolfpack have been underdogs twice this season and they failed to cover either time. Though some of the games have been closer than expected, the Canes have still won by at least eight points in each of their victories. Expect homecourt to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* ME. The home team won both meetings last season and I'm expecting homecourt to be the difference again tonight. Though banged-up, the Wildcats are off an impressive win over New Mexico. However, they're now on the road (just their second true road game) against a much stronger opponent. I expect their nagging bumps and bruises to finally catch up with them. Cal lost against Virginia last game. However, that was the Bears' first loss here in 27 games. They're still outscoring opponents by an average score of 73.9 to 58.2 on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with an important win. 

I'm playing on ILLINOIS STATE 10* GOW. This lone could easily be higher. Illinois State is undefeated at home, outscoring teams by a 77.8 to 65 margin here. On the other hand, Evansville is 1-4 away from home, getting outscored by an average of 72.2 to 64. While the Purple Aces have been rolling, this wins have come primarily at home and entirely against lesser compeition. They've lost all four games when getting points, going 1-3 against the number. The Redbirds have won four of five including a 9-point win over St. Joseph's, a team stronger than Evansville, in their last game on this flloor. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* PERS FAV. The Lobos enter conference play off a bad loss at Arizona. They've had some time to regroup though. Returning home, I expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight. Note that New Mexico is 16-2 SU the past 18 times that it played with seven or more day's rest in between games. While the Bulldogs are getting outscored away from home, the Lobos are undefeated on this floor outscoring visiting teams by an average margin of 78.8 to 63.8. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Lobos are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The visiting team won both games last season but the home team gets it done tonight. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Hurricanes are perfect on this floor and they outscore teams by a 78.2 to 55.3 margin here. They should win this one by an even wider margin than that. With conference play on deck, the Hurricanes are going to want to keep the pedal to the metal and build up confidence. Before recent wins over teams like George Washington and FAU, they'd faced the likes of Florida, Stanford and Iowa State. The 8-point win over GW was the only time in their past five games that the Canes hadnt won by double-digits. Columbia has yet to cover as an underdog yet this season and is just 7-12 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. Expect this one to "get ugly."

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. In their final game before Big 12 play begins, the Longhorns are looking to build confidence and momentum. They're off a dominating 96-60 win over UAB,  their best offensive game of the season. The Longhorns are looking to build off that impressive performance and prove that it wasn't a fluke. Kent State should provide them that opportunity. The Flashes are off b2b losses and are just 2-4 away from home. They have yet to see an opponent as talented as this one. Look for a double-digit win, the Longhorns improving to 22-8 ATS their last 30 lined games, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their preivous game.

I'm playing on SYRACAUSE 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off an awful 93-60 loss to St. John's before the Christmas break, I expect the Orange to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. The Big Red have a first year coach (Brian Earl) and he's about to learn that while these teams have met regularly, this is no rivalry. Indeed, with last season's 21-point romp, the Orange have won 36 straight in the series. Cornell is only 3-8 and that includes a 30-point loss, at Houston. I won't be surprised by a similar margin here, the Orange regaining their confidence with a rout, while improving to 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the last eight times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 

I'm playing on SDSU 10* PERS FAV. While both teams recorded impressive wins on Thursday and Friday to be here, I particularly like the path that the Aztecs took. After a dominant defensive performance in their tournament opener, a 66-51 beating of Southern Miss, the Aztecs stepped up in class a little to take on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane gave them a good challenge, for a while, as the game was tied with 11 minutes left. Thats when the Aztecs flexed their muscles and closed the game and went on a 21-4 run.

After losing, Tulsa coach Haith had this to say about the Aztecs: "...San Diego State is a tough-minded team and very physical, and it's the type of team that you can't give any help. We weren't as tough as you need to be to win that type of game..."

With wins over Utah and Illinois State to get here, the Dons have proven that they're to be taken seriously. They're just 3-12 SU (5-9 ATS) the last 15 times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points though. With SF allowing 69.1 ppg (41%) and SDSU allowing just 62.5 (38.8%) I'm laying the small number with what I believe will prove to be the superior team. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10*. The Pirates have destroyed Rutgers in recent Decembers. Last December, laying -5.5 points, they beat the Knights by a whopping 84-55 margin. The previous December was almost as bad, an 81-54 destruction, in a game where the Pirates were laying nine points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Pirates have beaten every opponnet on this floor by a minimum of 13 points. They're hitting 54% of their shots here, visiting teams connecting on less than 40% of theirs.

Its true that the Knights are off to their best start in 40 years, with only one loss. However, thats largely because they've only played one decent team. Their best wins came against Depaul and Stony Brook. The only time they faced a 'good' team (Miami) they lost by double-digits. Indeed, thus far, the Knights' schedule ranks as the second weakest of all the 351 Div 1A teams. 

Seton Hall's Angel Delgado had this to say about the Knights and their hot start: "They could be No. 1 in the country, we're still going to beat them. I'm coming with the mindset that we're not losing this game. That's how I feel, that's how I'm always going to feel. They were disrespecting us last year with a lot of stuff, but we're always tough here at home.''

While the Knights are 1-3 ATS their last four as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, the Pirates are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Look for Delgado and co. to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND 10* PERS FAV. Having scored a combined 225 points their last two games, the Tribe bring some impressive offensive stats to the table. However, lets keep in mind that those games came against the likes of Milligan and Savannah State. Also, both came at home where the Tribe are undefeated. Winning on the road has been an entirely different matter. Indeed, William & Mary is 0-4 away from home, all four losses coming by double-digits. 

While the Tribe gets outscored by an ugly 87.2 to 68.7 margin on the road, the Rams are outscoring teams by a dominant 78 to 60.7 points here at home. 

In their final game before conference play starts, the Rams are looking to build positive momentum with an aggressive "attacking" game. Coach Dan Hurley commented: "In a perfect world right now, with Hassan out, we wouldn't mind seeing the three guards shoot 35 to 40 shots between them in a game .... everyone in attack mode every single game. That's what we want to see from those guys."

While Hurley acknowledged his team was looking forward to conf. play, he added: "...you're also excited about the opportunity to end the nonconference the right way." 

I expect Hurley's Rams to do just that, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* GOW. The Golden Grizzlies bring the better record to the table. However, I believe that they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both teams are off a loss against Northeastern. However, while MSU faced the Huskies on Sunday, the Golden Grizzlies did so last night. Off last night's hard-fought defeat, this will be their third game in the past four days. 

I wouldnt have minded if Oakland had won last night, but a very close loss works even better. Either way, the Spartans figure to have plenty of motivation. Comments like these, made Monday by Oakland's coach (Kampe), figure to throw gas on the fire:

"We set this up, we knew it was coming, knew it was looming: three really good teams ... One could say that Northeastern's the best of the three teams we're going to play. I don't know if they’re better than Michigan State or not, but they sure were yesterday."

The Spartans have never lost to the Golden Grizzlies. Last season, they spotted them a 50-37 halftime lead but stormed back to win by six. This season, with the schedule in their favor, I expect them to jump on them out of the gate, as they did in 2014. In that meeting, MSU was up 13 by the break and won by 26. Look for the Spartans to bounce back big, improving to 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game.

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* BB. This is the renewal of a rivalry that goes back over the years. The teams will meet again at "The Pit" next season, the second half of the home-and-home series. While the Wildcats could easily get caught patting themselves on the back after beating Texas A&M and/or looking ahead to conference play, I expect the Lobos to be "sky high" for a chance to face a ranked opponent from the Pac-12. Note that the Lobos are 11-3 ATS over the years, as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 5-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15.5 range. While the Lobos have lost a few games, only one has been by more than 13 points. Off an 83-43 win, they come in with some confidence. The Wildcats are still a banged-up team, one which beat "Grand Canyon" by only 10 points its last time on this floor. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH 10* BEST BET. I'm happy to grab the points here as I believe that the Golden Eagles have an excellent shot at the outright victory. Sure, the Golden Eagles have lost three straight. However, the first two of those came at Michigan State and at Tennessee and the most recent came by only two points. The loss against Lipscomb last game wasn't what they were hoping for. However, in fairness, they'd just really fought hard against the Spartans and Vols, losing by six and 12 points, easily covering in both. Including those results, they're 7-2 ATS their last nine December lined games. 

The Paladins' 6-5 record is a little deceiving, as UAB is the only good team which they've beaten. While that win was certainly impressive, it came early in the season and it required a 62% effort from beyond the 3-point line, something they haven't come close to matching since. Last time out, they shot 28% from beyond the arc, losing at home against lowly South Carolina State. Not too impressive considering that South Carolina State, hailing from the Mid-Eastern Conference, is still only 3-8 and has still been outscored by a 83.9 to 64.2 average score. 

While the Paladins are 1-3 ATS the last four times (and 4-10-1 ATS the last 15) that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, during the same  the Golden Eagles are 3-1 ATS (and SU) in four tries as home underdogs of three or fewer points. With the Paladins averaging 69.8 ppg on the road and the Golden Eagles averaging 82.8 on this floor, I'm backing what should be a highly motivated home team. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE 10* ME. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are tough every season and thats the case again this year. That doesn't mean that we can't successfully pick spots to go against them though. Some will recall that I played on Iowa State when the Cyclones covered against Gonzaga. I thought the Bulldogs would receive a tough test that day and I look for them to get more than they bargained for again this afternoon.

While this is technically a neutral court game, its being played at Nasvhille. So, although Nasvhille and Knoxville are still a fair distance apart, the venue certainly favors the Vols. Thats noteworthy as Gonzaga has yet to play in many "hostile environments," like its going to encounter here. In fact, the Bulldogs have yet to play a "true road game" this season and most of their neutral site games, besides Florida which they faced in Orlando, have actually been pretty "neutral." Note that Gonzaga won that Florida game by just five points. Including that result, three of its four neutral site games were decided by seven or fewer points. Looking at it another way, when playing away from home, Gonzaga has only beaten one team by more than seven points all season. And that was Quinnipiac. 

Speaking of close games, the Vols have already lost by eight against Wisconsin, lost by four against Oregon and lost by two against UNC. That UNC loss was their only setback in the last six games and no team has beatem by more than eight since the first game of the season. The Vols have been money in the underdog role over the years and again so far this season. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* ANNIHILATOR. Remember when Curry almost led Davidson to an upset of Kansas in the NCAA Tournament? How about when the Wildcats actually upset the Jayhawks here at the Sprint Center? Well, those games were a long time (2008 and 2011) ago now. Curry is long gone and Davidson isn't the same team. Kansas hasn't forgotten though and I expect some payback to be in order. While the Jayhawks will head West after this, this game will be their ninth in a row played at either the Sprint Center or Allen Fieldhouse. On the other hand, the Wildcats have yet to play a home game this month. Its starting to catch up with them too, as they've lost their last two by a combined 24 points. The Jayhawks are outscoring teams by a 93.8 to 65.2 margin their past five games. Self will make sure his team remembers what happened last time; I expect him to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND 10* PERS FAV. I like how this one sets up for the "home" team. (*Game is being played at the Moda Center in Portland.) The Pilots got a wake-up call last time out, as Texas Rio Grande took them to double-OT. I like the fact that they were able to 'survive' and eke out the win and feel that the close victory will serve them well here. While their last scheduled game (Boise State) got postponed due to a snowstorm, note that the only three teams that have beaten the Pilots this season are Colorado, UCLA and Dayton. 

True, the Coyotes are off b2b wins. However, both those games came at home and they came against the likes of Sacramento State and Montana State. They're 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four times that they played away from South Dakota and the lone "cover" was a 12-point loss, as a 13-point underdog. 

Look for the close win their last time on the floor and the 'big game experience' gained from playing in the Wooden Legacy Tournament to serve the Pilots well, as they take down the Coyotes, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Playing at home and favored by 10 points, the Knights did not look good last game. They'd connect on less than 40% of their shots and finish with less than 50 points, an ugly 58-49 loss to Pennsylvania. Not very good when considering that the Quakers had lost four of their previous five and were off a 79-60 blowout loss against George Mason. Of course, it didn't help matters that they played without their starting point guard and leading scorer, B.J. Taylor. Now, the Knights, still sans Taylor, take to the road to face a George Washington team which is off a 79-60 blowout win, a team which hammered them last season (67-50 at UCF) and which has won four of its last five. Yikes. While the Colonials continue to play without Watanabe, they're playing well without him. They're sharing the ball well (20 assists last game) and playing good team basketball. While the blowout of Howard was to be expected, their recent win at Temple was impressive. They'll be coming in full of confidence and I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA 10* PERS FAV. A few weeks ago, the Bulldogs beat the Rajin' Cajuns by 14 points. While that 11/19 game was played on the football field, I expect the Bulldogs to win this evening's basketball game by a similar margin. The Cajuns bring a decent record to the table. However, the only quality team which they faced was Minnesota and they lost that one by double-digits, failing to cover as +8.5 point underdogs.

Georgia has struggled against top tier opponents but has taken care of lesser ranked teams. Three of the Bulldogs' five victories, including each of their last two, have come by double-digits.

With an O/U line in the 150s, this game is projected to play at a fairly fast tempo and to be quite high-scoring. That figures to favor Georgia. The Dawgs are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the past couple of seasons when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s and that includes a 2-0 SU/ATS mark when playing a game here at home with a line in the 150 to 154.5 range. During the same period, the Cajuns are just 7-12 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s.

The Bulldogs, who lost to Marquette on 12/4, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing with seven or more day's rest. They've responded to each of their previous losses with a double-digit win in their next game and I look for them to do so again here.

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* PERS FAV. The Broncos have gotten off to a tough start. Playing at home, against a UC Riverside team which has been terrible on the road, provides the perfect opportunity to build some positive momentum. In four road games, the Highlanders have been outscored by an average score of 82-60. The Broncos actually do bring some positive momentum into tonight's game, as they just beat up on a weak team (Cal State East Bay) by a 75-50 margin. Delivering another big win against a Highlanders team which beat them by 14 last season figures to be more rewarding. Last season's game at Riverside came early on in the year and an inexperienced Broncos team was still learning how to play together. I believe that the Broncos are catching the Highlanders at the right time this season. UC Riverside, which lost by 42 points last time out and 18 the time before that, hasn't played for two weeks due to its exam break. Look for the Broncos to take advantage of the venue and schedule, avenging last season's loss in convincing fashion and improving to 6-2 ATS their last eight lined games, after failing to cover their previous three or more. 

I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE 10* BEST BET. While the (Morehead State) Eagles have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, I believe this is a case of getting points with the better team. True, Eastern Washington has been winning while Morehead State has been losing. However, thats largely been a matter of the quality of opposition. The (Morehead State) Eagles, who have lost six straight, haven't lost seven in a row since 2006-2007. Preston Spralin, interim coach, noted "Its the great thing about college basketball, you don't have time to feel sorry for yourself ... " With an O/U line in the low 150s, this is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games on Tuesday's card. That figures to suit Morehead State just fine as its a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 150s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* GOW. With a top 25 ranking and an undefeated record, South Carolina is certainly off to an impressive start. I believe that the battle-tested Pirates are favored for good reason though. The Pirates have indeed played a very tough non-conference schedule, traveling all over the place while taking on a number of top teams. By comparison, the Gamecocks have played all but one of their games at home. I expect the Pirates' experience playing away from home to serve them well for tonight's big game at MSG. It should certainly help matters that the Gamecocks will be without starting guard Sindari Thornwell, as he was suspended last week. As the Gamecocks haven't played since 12/4, this will be just their second game without him. While they were able to beat (they didn't cover) lowly FIU without him, Thornwell is a senior who leads the teams in both scoring and rebounding. He'll be missed against a Seton Hall team which averages better than 78 ppg. The Pirates, who have allowed just 57 points in consecutive games, are now 13-3 ATS (14-3 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S 10* PERS FAV. Given their inexperience and the fact that their star player has been out all season, the Anteaters got off to a pretty solid start. However, that inexperience is starting to catch up to them and I feel that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I said the same thing when they visited Arizona last Tuesday. That was the last time that the Anteaters faced a quality opponent and they got blown out by 22 points.

Off their first loss of the season, an unlikely 65-51 loss against Texas Arlington, the Gaels figure to be in a foul mood. With the exception of a 4-point road win at Dayton, every one of the Gaels' wins has been by double-digits this season. While UC Irvine averages 57.7 ppg on the road, St. Mary's averages 80.7 ppg here at home. Look for the Gaels to bounce back with a blowout win, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they'd been held to 60 or fewer points in their previous game.

'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* ME. A poor start at the betting window for the Hoyas has resulted in a very low line for this afternoon's game at Maui. I believe that low line is providing us with excellent value. With their wins coming against Bucknell, Lehigh, Drexel and Delaware, none of them by more than 11 points, the Explorers have to defeat a strong opponent. Losing against Villanova was obviously expected and even the loss at Temple wasn't too bad. But this La Salle team also lost a home game against Texas Southern from the SWAC Conference. Though they haven't been covering, off three straight wins, the Hoyas have started to put it together. Note that all five of this season's victories have come by at least four points. I expect them to finish on top once again, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. I believe that there's a considerable talent gap between these teams. Playing on the "Big Ten Network" on a "stand-alone" Friday game (today's other two games both start earlier)  that Pitino will be happy to run up the score, showing the "world" that this year's team is the "real deal." Much stronger than last season, the Gophers are 8-1 so far.  They've beaten teams like Vanderbilt, Arkansas and St. John's. The Gophers, 3-0 SU/ATS against Sun Belt teams the past couple of seasons, are undefeated on this floor. Their lone loss came at Florida State. While the Gophers are allowing an average of only 62.2 ppg their last five, while holding opponents to a mere 35.9% from the field. Despite playing against lesser competition, the Eagles are allowing 74.2 ppg their last five, opposing teams hitting 47.3% of their shots. Look for the Gophers to flex their muscles in front of national audience, another dominant defensive effort leading to a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S 10* PERS FAV. These schools are separated by only about 15 miles. Dating back to 1909, they've faced each other 87 times. The Red Storm are a commanding 25-3 the last 28 of those and 65-22 overall. Last year, however, was different. While St John's was inexperienced, the Rams had an experienced team, one which was sick of losing to its "rival." The Rams didn't just earn a rare win in the series, they hammered the Red Storm by a 73-57 margin. The fact that Neubauer left the Rams' starters in and continued to play "pressure defense," after the outcome was already decided, didn't sit too well with Chris Mullin.

While Marcus LoVett appears unlikely to go, playing at home, the revenge-minded Red Storm should have more than enough to take care of a Fordham team which isn't nearly as strong as last season. The Rams have lost three straight, those losses coming against the likes of Texas Arlington, Sacred Heart and Harvard. They managed a mere 52 points last time out and have been outscored by an average of 80-55.5 in two road games (0-2 SU/ATS) overall. The Red Storm got off to an ugly start but have started to play better. They're off b2b wins, averaging 85.5 points in those victories. Payback time. 

I'm playing on SMU 10* GOW. The Horned Frogs come in with a perfect record, undefeated under coach Jamie Dixon. However, I believe the Mustangs are favored for good reason, as I expect TCU to suffer its first loss. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Mustangs are 37-3 SU on this floor, 27-3 SU in "lined" games. That includes a modest 3-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. They're undefeated at home so far this season, outscoring teams by an average score of 74 to 53.6 here.

The Frogs, on the other hand, are 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're just 4-18 SU on the road overall. They've only played one "true" road game this season and that resulted in an ATS loss at UNLV. The Frogs deserve plenty of credit for their perfect start. Beating Washington and winning at UNLV are both worthy accomplishments. That said, this is the Frogs toughest test yet. They've got a number of freshman in the lineup (even Dixon has acknowledged the team is a work in progress) and I don't feel they're going to be quite up for it. Look for SMU, which has added forward Semi Ojeleye (transfer from Duke) who is averaging a team best 17.2 points to go along with 7.7 rebounds, to win its fifth straight in this series, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND. I believe that the Monarchs are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rams are off a tough loss against rival Providence, their second straight 3-point loss. Both came on the road though. They're back home, where they're still perfect (4-0) on the season, and I expect them to be in an angry mood.

While Rhode Island fans surely would have liked to beat the Friars, I agree with coach Dan Hurley that there's no reason to panic. Hurley had this to say: "We lost two tough road games against two pretty good teams in tough venues in games seven and eight of the nonconference. We've just got to have a little perspective and not lose our minds."

The Monarchs aren't slouches by any means, as they're a strong defensive team. That said, they only score 61.8 ppg (61.4 on the road) and they're up against a Rams team which is averaging 88 ppg on this floor. While the Rams may not hit that average tonight, its still going to be tough for the Monarchs to keep up. The Monarchs beat the Rams, at Old Dominion, last December. I expect the Rams, 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, to return the favor, in convincing fashion, on Tuesday evening.

I'm playing on MARYLAND 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps have had a great SU record at home over the years but have struggled at the betting window. Here's a case, however, where a SU win is likely also going to result in an ATS cover. The Terps have won four of five here this season, outscoring opponents by a 72.4 to 60.6 margin here. They're 38-3 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. While they did drop their last game here, it was their fifth game in 10 days and appeared flat, as a result. They've had some more time to recover now and I expect a much better effort. Led by point-guard Jawun Evans, the Cowboys have wins over Georgetown and UConn to their credit, along with a blowout loss vs. UNC, so they're certainly not slouches. That said, this is their first "true road game," and they're just 4-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. This hasn't been a good role for them over the years either, as they're just 8-21-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon described Thursday's practice as: "... among the best of the season." I expect that to carry over into tonight's game, homecourt ultimately proving the difference. Maryland bounces back. 

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. As some of you will likely recall, I successfully played on the Tide in their last game and they rewarded me with a 76-46 blowout win. As impressive as that victory was, winning at Texas is an entirely different deal from playing at home against Charleston Southern. While they've got some more experience than last season, the Tide have yet to play a "true" road game; I expect that they'll be dealing with some more growing pains away from home this season. They've won just nine of 25 times on the road the past couple of years and are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to +6 range, during that time. Off three straight losses, the Longhorns are going to be in a foul mood. They've won 30 of 39 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. During that time, they were 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover their previous three games. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* MAIN EVENT. I like the Cyclones and was really impressed with their effort in the recent AdvoCare Invitational tournament, as they played hard the entire way. Some of you will recall that I backed them in the finals of that tournament. Facing a strong Gonzaga team, the Cyclones found themselves trailing by 15 at halftime. However, they didn't quit. I included a quote in my analysis of that ISU/Gonzaga game from an ISU player (Naz Mitrou) stating that "This tournament means everything." The Cyclones played like it. They stormed back and earned the 'cover,' eventually losing 73-71.

While the Cyclones have had a few days off to recover, I still believe thats going to prove to be a difficult loss to immediately bounce back from. When a game "means everything" and you fight so hard, only to come up just short, that takes a toll.

Don't expect the Bearcats to show them any sympathy as they've also been playing great basketball. They've responded to their lone loss - against a good Rhode Island team - with three conesecutive double-digit victories. Full of confidence, they're looking for a "statement win" here. They also haven't forgotten a very close (81-79) loss at the hands of these same Cyclones, at Cincy, last season. While it appears the Bearcats may not have Clark, I believe they've got more than enough to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset.

I'm playing on SETON HALL 10* PERS FAV. After winning three straight to start the season, including a fairly impressive victory at Iowa, the Pirates dropped two of three at the Advocare Invitational, failing to cover in all three games. Losses came against Florida and Stanford. They're back home now though and they've had some time off (last played on Sunday) to recover and prepare to get back to business. Note that they've won their two games on this floor by scores of 91-70 and 82-58. On the other hand, Columbia just lost a tough (88-86) one against Hoffstra on Tuesday and hasn't had much time to recover from it. Note that Columbia lost by 20 at St Joseph's, the only other time it faced a decent team on the road. Yes, its true that the Pirates have failed to cover a few in a row. That shouldnt prevent us from pulling the trigger though. Note that they're 3-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three straight. The Pirates are 12-3 SU and 10-3 ATS their past 15 in December. Look for them to start the month off in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Anteaters hammered the Broncos last season. Playing at home, I expect the Broncos to return the favor tonight. While the Broncos are a relatively experienced team, the Anteaters lost the majority of the players who were around for last season's 79-61 beatdown. The lone returning starter was Luke Nelson. However, he has yet to play a minute, as coach Russ Turner has been extra cautious with his star.

Turner recently had this to say of Nelson: "It's a tough deal because he’s got a hamstring issue, which is difficult to define. I feel like he is close to playing. But until he is 100 percent, I'm going to be cautious with that, and that's because the conference race and the conference tournament specifically are so much more vital than the games that we're playing now."

In the (unlikely) event that Nelson does return, he can't be expected to be dominate in his first game back - and the return of a team's star, after he's been gone for a long time, often initially causes the other players to "stand around" a little, or at least it takes some time for the lineup to adjust. Note that Nelson led the way for the Anteaters in last year's win over Santa Clara, going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc with 20 overall points and six asssists.

Nelson's absence and the Anteaters' overall inexperience is starting to catch up with them. Losing by six against East Tenn. State last time out wasn't too bad. However, they were hammered by 54-37 by a weak Wisconsin-Milwaukee team before that. (The only other team that Wisc-Milw has beaten thus far is the "Milwaukee School Of Engineering" and every other game has resulted in a double-digit loss.)

The Broncos have also lost two in a row. However, those losses came against Vanderbilt and Arizona (big difference from Wisc-Milwaukee!) and both were by 10 points or less. The Broncos won their last two games on this floor by double-digits. I look for them to rise to the occasion and avenge last year's loss.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* BEST BET. Its true that Butler has played a much tougher schedule, as Utah has been beating up on cupcakes. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit for winning the Continental Las Vegas Invitational. Beating Arizona in the finals was no small feat. However, they may well be in 'letdown mode' here and have had little time to recover. Either way, I expect the Bulldogs, who are still getting used to the six new players in their lineup, to stumble against a hungry, undefeated, and prepared Utes squad. Note that Butler is just 2-4 ATS the last six times it was listed as a road favorite of three or fewer points.

Utah coach Krystkowiak has been preparing for this game, working in concepts into practice to help against Butler (whom Utah coaches saw play last season in Puerto Rico) without specifically telling players. "This is for the Butler game." Krystkowiak commented: "A lot of that is built into our practices without talking about Butler." This is the first of a home-and-home series between these schools; next year they'll square off at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the schedule in their favor, look for the Utes to "hold serve" this year. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. These teams met last Thanksgiving Day, Arizona closing as a 24-point favorite. Santa Clara very nearly scored the upset though, the Cats ultimately winning 75-73. As per usual, the Wildcats are tough. However, I believe the Broncos are capable of providing another "Thanksgiving scare." The Broncos enter today's game with a modest 3-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record. That shouldn't scare us off them though, considering that they were 0-5 SU/ATS when they entered last season's near upset. As of this writing, the O/U line is 139.5 across the board. Thats a little higher than last seasons but still in the same "range." Note that the Broncos are 5-1 ATS their last six neutral court games where the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5 while the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they played a neutral court game with a total in that range. While they're 2-2 ATS thus far this season, November hasn't been kind to the Cats' bettors in recent years; they're just 6-11 ATS in November the past 2+ seasons. The Broncos have thrived in neutral court settings and are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons as neutral court underdogs in the +12.5 to +18 range. Last season's game is going to give them some confidence coming in; I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on PURDUE 10* GOW. The Boilermakers received a wake-up call in their last game and I expect it to work in their favor here. Favored by 18.5 points, the Boilermakers found themselves trailing lowly Georgia State by double-digits (56-44) with only 7:08 to play. While Georgia State deserves some credit, Purdue was clearly in 'letdown mode' from having just suffered an emotional 79-76 loss against Villanova in its previous game. The Boilermakers didn't quit though. Rather, they put together an awesome 20-0 run to end and win the game. I expect them to carry that positive momentum into this evening's "Cancun Challenge" contest. While the Aggies are worthy of respect, we shouldn't make too much out of their undefeated record. Their toughest opponent was UC Irvine, which played without its best player. Through four games, the Aggies are allowing just 61 ppg. That shouldn't phase Purdue though. The Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS their last 25 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. During that stretch, Purdue is also 16-7 ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points and 9-3 ATS in all tournament games, 1-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite in the -9.5 to -12 range. I believe that we'll see the Purdue team that played so well against Villanova (and the one that closed out last game on a 20-0 run) not the one that struggled through the first part of last game. That'll be enough to lead to a double-digit win against an Aggie team which has yet to face this level of opposition.

I'm playing on PACIFIC 10* BEST BET. Some of you may recall that I successfully backed the Anteaters a couple of games ago. Listed as small favorites, they rewarded me with a solid 73-58 victory. The Anteaters followed that up with another well-played game, as they took Cal to OT. True, they caught the Bears without a few regulars. Stil, they were huge (+16) underdogs and to get to OT was impressive. That said, I expect that game to catch up to them here. The Anteaters had a chance to win that one in regulation and couldn't capitalize. The thought of 'what could have been' figures to linger in the lockerroom. The continued absence of star Luke Evans (hamstring) doesn't help matters either. They keep listing him as questionable but he has yet to play. In the unlikely event he did play tonight, off an extended absence, he can't be expected to perform miracles in his first game back. The Tigers have had a couple of extra day's rest and come in off a momentum-building 18-point win, the first victory of the "Stoudamire era." Note that last season's meeting was decided by three points and that the Tigers are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

I'm playing on Texas A@M 10* PERS FAV. Both teams are 2-0, each beating up on some weaker opposition. With this game being played at College Station, the first time that the Trojans have played here since 1936, I expect the Aggies to have the advantage. USC is playing its first true road game here and road wins have been pretty tough to come by in recent seasons. The Trojans were 3-7 on the road last season (5-16 L2 years) and they're an ugly 20-71 on the road the last eight seasons. Meanwhile, the Aggies are now 33-5 on this floor the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 2-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Going back further finds them at 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 in that role. Its also worth noting that the Aggies are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Trojans are still pretty young. Look for this trip to prove to be a rude awakening. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* TV MAIN EVENT. As you likely know, Providence lost Chris Dunn to the NBA. A 2-time Big East Player Of The Year, he was selected fifth overall by the T-Wolves. The Friars lost Ben Bentil to the NBA, selected 51st overall by the Celtics. Those are big shoes to fill. As some of you also know, I successfully backed the Friars in their first game. I noted that I thought they still had some decent talent and depth, that they were tough to beat at home and that they were going to be highly motivated to show they could win without Dunn. That was a home game against Vermont though. Now, they're on the road against Ohio State. With a victory under their belt, the desire to prove that they can win without Dunn may not be as strong. The Buckeyes have yet to cover but are already 2-0 on the season. They'll be relishing the chance for a big win over a team from the Big East. The Buckeyes dropped some early non-conf. games last season and have learned their lesson from it. Matta called them out for being flat in their opener. I expect them to respond with a far more focused effort here, en route to a win and cover. 

'm playing on UNLV 10* PERS FAV. The Highlanders have some quality players, as Johnson and Thames are both capable scorers. However, I believe they're coming to the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Rebels are going to be in a fould mood, after getting upset by South Alabama. Its true that UNLV has slipped since its "the glory days." Its also true that this is a fairly young team, one which is dealing with some early injury adversity. They're a young team with talent though, one which will be determined to get Menzies his first win as coach of UNLV. The defensive effort was their in the first game, but they were lacking in offensive execution. I expect that game to serve as a good learning tool. They're also likely not going to need as many to win against the Highlanders. UC Riverside scored only 55 points in its loss at Portland. UNLV won by 11 at UC Riverside last season, covering as 6-poiint favorites. Including that result, the Highlanders are a dismal 2-10 ATS (0-12 SU) their last 12 against teams from the Mountain West. Rebels roll.

I'm playing on UC Irvine 10* PERS FAV. Both teams got hammered in their opener. Both will be hungry to bounce back. One could make a case that the Jackrabbits were 'better' in their blowout loss, as it came against a much stronger opponent. They lost at Cal while the Anteaters were beaten by Utah State. I believe that b2b home games are going to serve the Anteaters better than b2b road games will treat the Jackrabbits though. While South Dakota State is below .500 on the road, the Anteaters, 4-1 ATS their last five off a double-digit loss, are 21-6 at home the past 2+ seasons. The Anteaters played without their star Luke Nelson in the opening loss. They're hoping to have him back for tonight's game. Either way, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This was already going to be a tough matchup for Yale. While you may recall that the Bulldogs made it to the NCAA Tournament season, the first time they'd been there since 1962. This year's team lost all but one starter from that team though. Fortunately, for Yale fans, their lone returning starter is Makai Mason. If you remember Yale playing in the tournament, you'll remember Mason. He was the guy that scored 31 points in the first round upset of Baylor. Unfortunately, at least for Yale fans, Mason broke his foot in a recent scrimmage and won't be available for here. For a team that was relying on him more than ever, thats a devasating blow. While the Huskies also lost some key players from last year's team, the cupboard isn't as bare. They've still got a couple of starters from last year along with guard Markelle Fultz, considered to be one of the top freshmen in the country. Look for the Huskies to take advantage of their "Mason-less" guests, starting the Fultz era off with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* SPECIAL. As evidenced by their lofty rankings, both these teams are going to be good this year. However, the Jayhawks have the higher ranking for a reason and they should have the advantage out of the gate. The Jayhawks, who added the nation's top recruit in Josh Jackson, will be looking to tie tie UCLA's all-time Division I record of 13 consecutive conference championships this season and there's little reason to doubt that they'll do it. Bill Self had this to say of this year's team: "I love our experience. I love our depth. And I think our young kids could be our most talented. There's no reason not to be optimistic." All Big-Ten point guard Yogi Ferrell has moved on for the Hoosiers. That's significant as he'd been running the offense for a long time. While the Hoosiers had a strong season last year, it started off with a 1-2 record in Maui. They're on a different island (Oahu) this time but I expect them to again get off to a tough start. Look for this loaded Jayhawks team to get off to a winning start, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on Villanova and UNC to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams shot well on Sunday and both are obviously very capable of putting up a lot of points. Both defenses were also stingy and I believe that both are better than many may realize. That said, I feel this O/U line will prove to be too high. The Tar Heels limited Syracuse to just 40 percent from the field and 32 percent from three-point range, while also forcing the Orange into 10 turnovers with just five assists. The Wildcats were even stingier. They kept Oklahoma to 31.7% of its field goals and 22.2% from 3-point range. Oklahoma, which had scored 82, 85, 77 and 80 points in its previous four NCAA tournament games, would score only 51 points. That was the fewest number of points the Sooners scored all year. Buddy Hield, the player everyone was talking about, would finish with a mere nine points, his second lowest-scoring output of the season. Both teams saw their conference tourney final stay well below the total. UNC combined with UVA for only 118 points, staying below the number by roughly 20. Villanova would combine with Seton Hall for 136. I expect this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10*

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Obviously, both teams are playing really well. I believe that the Wildcats are superior defensively though and that their advantage on that side of the ball will ultimately make the difference. Yes, the Tar Heels averaged more points per game than the Wildcats this season. Villanova has topped the 85 point mark in four of five NCAA Tournament games though, including 95 last time out, so I don't believe the Wildcats are giving anything away there. (Villanova has connected on 58.2% of its field goals during the tournament, compared to 51.8% for UNC.) However, as stated, its on the other side of the ball that the Cats really have an edge. UNC has allowed an average of 71.8 ppg during the tournament, pretty close to the 69.8 ppg (71.3 ppg on the road) it allowed on the season. On the other hand, Villanova is allowing a mere 63.3 ppg on the season and that number has dropped to a paltry 60.6 in the Big Dance. Therefore, its worth noting that UNC is only 1-2 SU/ATS its last three games against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game, splitting its last two against UVA while losing its last one against Louisville. (Syracuse was allowing 64.6 ppg coming into Sunday's game, so didn't qualify.) The Wildcats are 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) the last seven times they played a game with an O/U line in the 150 to 159.5 range. That includes a 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS record this season, with a 5-point win at Butler and a 14-point win at Creighton. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Big Dance and I look for them to improve on those stats Monday night. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Syracuse and UNC to finish UNDER the total. With all due respect to the UNC offense, which is indeed very good, I believe this number will prove to be too high. As you're surely aware, the Orange are here on the strength of their defense. In four NCAA tournament games, they've allowed 51, 50, 61 and 62 points. They faced some pretty good offenses too. Dayton was averaging better than 73 points before facing Syracuse. Middle Tennessee State was also averaging better than 73 points (and 76.8 ppg its past five games) before facing the Orange. Gonzaga was averaging better than 79 ppg and Virginia was averaging more than 71. Admittedly, at 83 ppg, the UNC offense is better than any of those. Still, Syracuse has held every opponent to well below its season average and I believe its capable of doing the same here. Of course, the Orange are going to need to do that, as they can't afford to get into a shootout with UNC; Syracuse has failed to score more than 75 points in 11 straight games. The Orange have averaged only 67.5 ppg their last 10. While the earlier meeting finished at 75-70, the Cuse defense has been playing much better since. The same can arguably be said of UNC. While they got into some high-scoring games against Notre Dame and Indiana, the Tar Heels limited their previous six opponents to 72 or fewer points, four of them to 67 or less, including holding Notre Dame to only 47. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10*

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Its true that Oklahoma hammered the Wildcats back in December, by far Villanova's worst loss of the season. However, I'm expecting a vastly different result on Saturday. The Wildcats have arguably been more impressive than any team in the tournament thus far. They topped the 85-point mark in each of their first three games, winning by 30, 19 and 23 points. Last time out, they showed they can also dominate defensively, limiting a very good Kansas team to 59 points. The Sooners have been impressive too but arguably not quite as much. They have yet to win a game by more than 14 points and they barely squeaked past VCU in the second round. Buddy Hield is indeed an excellent player and is sure to put up some big numbers. I believe that the Wildcats are the more complete overall team though and I believe that their superior defense will ultimately be the difference. While the Sooners average three more points per game on offense, the Wildcats allow seven fewer points per game. (Oklahoma allows 70.4 ppg, Villanova allows a mere 63.6.) The last time that the Wildcats faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting was when they played at Providence on 2.6. The Friars had upset the Wildcats at Villanova on 1/24. Revenge-minded Villanova went on the road and hammered them by double-digits, beating them again, for good measure, in the Big East Tourney. Look for them to get some more payback Saturday, covering the small number along the way. 10*

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. These are both very good teams and both are (obviously) playing very well right now. Both are led by a star junior forward, Alec Peters and Tyler Cavanaugh have arguably been the two best players in the tournament. Both are very well-coached. Both teams play well on both sides of the ball. While the Crusaders are indeed very stingy, the Colonials are 2-1 SU/ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. I believe that the venue will favor the Colonials. George Washington is only about 225 miles from NYC, a hop-skip-and a jump up the I-95. The Colonials will have plenty of fan support. While I expect GW to win the game "outright," I'm happy to grab any extra points that are being offered. Valpo is off a 2-point win last game and had another 2-point win five games before that. GW has seen five of seven decided by single digits including a 2-point win over Hofstra. GW coach Mike Lonergan received a basketball net a few weeks ago from a friend, a message to "cut down the nets in March." "Lonergan noted: "I haven't cut down nets in a while, since I was at Vermont I think. So it's great to be in this situation." The Colonials have been using that net as a good luck charm, hanging it in their locker room. When its all said and done, I expect Lonergan's crew to be cutting them down. 10* 

I'm playing on Morehead State and Nevada to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 was extremely high-scoring. With the series shifting to Reno, I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair in Game 2. Nevada's Cameron Oliver and Elijah Foster both got in some early foul trouble in the opener and that allowed Morehead State’s Lyonell Gaines, DeJuan Marrero and Anthony Elechi to dominate the paint and combine for 51 points. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Wolfpack, in terms of defending the paint. Nevada entered Monday's opener allowing 74.6 ppg on the road. The Wolfpack only allow 68.4 ppg here at home though, holding visiting teams to a mere 38.7% FG percenage here. Allowing 68.3 ppg overall, Morehead State's defense is also arguably better than we saw Monday. While Nevada has seen the UNDER go 6-4 after scoring 80 or more points, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go 6-3 after scoring 80 or more, 36-18 (excluding pushes and counting only lined games) their last 54 in that situation. I expect those stats to improve tonight as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* CBI G.O.Y

I'm playing on Valparaiso. These teams first met in 1945, Valparaiso finishing on top. Four years later, in 1949, BYU returned the favor. Now, nearly 70 years later, I believe it's time for another win for the Crusaders. While most of those results are ancient history, its still worth mentioning that the Cougars have NOT fared well as small underdogs on a neutral court. Indeed, they're an ugly 1-11 the last 12 times that they were listed as a neutral court underdog of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the Crusaders were 5-1 SU/ATS as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points. In this game, BYU has the superior offensive numbers while Valpariso has a big edge defensively. BYU is allowing 72.8 ppg overall, 75.4 on the road. Over their last five games, the Cougars are allowing an average of 77.2. On the other hand, the Crusaders are allowing just 62.2 ppg. While Valparaiso holds opposing teams to 38.7% from the field on the road, the Cougars allowing opposing teams to connect on 43.6% of their shots, when playing away from home. I look for that defensive edge to be the difference this evening. BYU is an ugly 9-17 ATS (12-14 SU) its last 26 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. Considering that the Cougars are 74-32 overall during that stretch, one can really see that they don't fare well against top tier defenses. During that span, Valparaiso is 17-6 SU against teams which average 77 or more points per game. So, while the Cougars have struggled against good defenses, the Crusaders have not had the same problem against good offenses. Remember, Valpariso held St. Mary's to just 44 points last time out. I expect the Crusaders to again dicate them tempo, en route to another win and cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Towson. The Golden Grizzlies had an excellent year and are certainly a solid squad. I believe the same can be said of the Tigers though and feel this line is a little on the high side. Admittedly, Oakland's conference and schedule was a little tougher. The Tigers can't help what conference they play in though and were competitive in the vast majority of games they played in. Note that six of their losses came by six points or less, five of those by three or less. Oakland, which badly wanted to be at the Big Dance, is only 2-7 SU on a neutral court the past few seasons. Including their loss against Wright State in the conf. tourney, the Golden Grizzlies, who haven't played in three full weeks and who saw two of their final four games decided by four or fewer points, are also 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. I look for this one to come down to the wire and am grabbing the points. 10* best bet

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played on both these teams in the last round. So, I got the matchup that I was hoping for and expecting. I like how it sets up for the Irish. Obviously, the Tar Heels are very strong. The Irish know all about that, as UNC hammered in the 3/11 game. The first meeting was a different story, however, as the Irish won that 2/6 game by a score of 80-76. That result should give them the confidence to know that they can compete. I also really like the fashion that the Irish have been winning their games in this tournament. They've got a "never say die" attitude and the comeback victories have them believing that destiny is on their side. Prior to the 3/11 blowout, four straight meetings had been decided by eight or fewer points. I look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting and am grabbing all those generous points. 10* Elite 8 G.O.Y.

I'm playing on Syracuse and Virginia to finish UNDER the total. This number may initially seem low. However, considering how stingy these defenses are, I believe that it'll actually prove to be too high. Through three tourney games, the Orange have allowed 51, 50 and 60 points. The Cavs have allowed 71 or fewer points in eight straight games. They're allowing an average of 62 in the tourney (despite playing some high-scoring teams) and a mere 59.8 on the season. When these teams met last March, they combined for only 106 points, a 59-47 victory for the Cavs. I'm expecting a similar final number here. 10* Elite 8 O/U T.O.Y.

I'm playing on Villanova and Kansas to finish UNDER the total. I played on Villanova to finish 'under' the total in Rd. 1. (*Although the final score did stay below the closing total, I counted it as a loser for my records as results would have varied, based on when/where one played.) The Wildcats, who are allowing only 63.8 ppg on the season, were indeed dominant defensively that game, holding UNC-Asheville to just 56 points. They've held all three opponents to less than 70 points. Of course, the Villanova offense has been garnering all the attention, as its been firing on all cylinders. The Cats will face an extremly stingy Kansas team today though, one which just held Maryland and UConn, teams which both average well into the 70s, to just 63 and 61 points, respectively. Even with this week's results, the UNDER is still 14-8 when Villanova played on a neutral court the past few seasons. During that span, Kansas has seen the UNDER go 18-11 in neutral court games including 5-1 when listed as a favorite of three or less. Bottom line is that both defenses are better than many realize. Villanova holds opposing teams to 40.4% shooting while Kansas allows teams to shoot just 39.7% and 39.4% on the road. The number is generous and I look for the final score to be lower than most will be expecting. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on Oregon. I won with the Ducks against Duke and I'm coming right back with them again against Oklahoma. As I mentioned in the Duke game, the Ducks are the real deal. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "... While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country ... " Later, I went on to mention that the Ducks tend to fare well against "teams that like to push the pace," which is also applicable with Oklahoma. "...The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game..." Add another victory to those numbers after the thrasing of Duke. The Sooners, on the other hand, are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, a surprisingly poor 4-13 ATS their last 17 against teams with a winning record overall. The Ducks have won 12 of 13 games when the O/U line was in the 150s. I expect them to again prove that they're the "real deal." 10* 

I'm playing on UNC. The Hoosiers just took down a "big name" program in Kentucky. They're facing another big name program here and this one figures to be a much tougher matchup for them. The Tar Heels are the real deal, perhaps the best team in the country at the moment. Well-coached. Talented. Experienced. Huge. All of those are likely to come into play Friday night, particularly that last one. Indeed, the Tar Heels have a serious size advantage and will have a big edge in the post. The Hoosiers aren't entirely healthy. Losing James Blackmon a couple of months ago really hurt their backcourt depth and Johnson (and Morgan) is currently a bit banged-up. Indiana coach Crean said this of UNC: "North Carolina is at another level ... because they have so many forwards that can run. They’re five to six deep at the four and five positions and they can all get out and run." I expect the Heels to step up their defensive intensity, picking up the win and cover and again showing that they're going to be tough for anyone to beat. 10* Friday Main Event

I'm playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange are getting very little respect and I believe they're seriously under-valued. True, Gonzaga has a far better overall record. That doesn't tell the whole story though. This is a battle-tested Syracuse team, one which has squared off against many of the top teams in the country. Indeed, the Orange have played eight games against teams in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has played only one game against a team in the Sweet 16, a loss against Texas A&M, a team which Syracuse beat the very next day. So, comparing the overall records isn't exactly relevant. Gonzaga is indeed a very good team, worthy of much respect. The Orange have arugably been as dominant as any team in the tournament though. Don't believe it? Check this out. The Orange have allowed 50 and 51 points. That average of 50.5 allowed, is the fewest ppg of any Sweet 16 team. They've won their two games by a combined 44 points and that 22-point average margin of victory is tied for second. As Syracuse's Frank Howard pointed out: "Sometimes our games aren’t the most fun to watch maybe. But ... Winning’s fun." The Orange are 10-2 ATS over the years as a neutral court underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. I really like the way they're playing right now and expect all their "big game experience" to serve them well on Friday night. 10* Sweet 16 G.O.Y.

I'm playing on Iowa State and Virginia to finish UNDER the total. While the Cyclones admittedly have a very good offense, they're up against an extremely stingy defense here. Indeed, the Cavs allow a mere 59.5 ppg, 60.7 away from home. None of their last seven opponents have hit the 70-point mark. While the Cyclones can and do score, they showed they can also play some defense last round, limiting Ark-Little-Rock to 61 points. In fact, they've now allowed 61 or fewer points in three of their last six. The Cavs will do their best to slow the tempo. They've seen the UNDER go 10-5 against teams which score 77 or more points per game including 6-2 the last eight. The Cyclones faced three teams which were allowing 64 or fewer points (when the teams faced each other) and two of those games stayed below the total. I feel the number is generously high and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on Oregon. While I backed Duke against Yale, this is a far more difficult matchup. While many may not yet agree, the Ducks (30-6) are a legit #1 seed. With 10 straight victories, ALL of them by a minimum of five points, the Ducks are arguably playing as well as any team in the country. Even when I played on Duke last game, I acknowledged that the Blue Devils lacked depth. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "....Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though ..." Thats not the case here though and I do expect that "problem to rear its head." Prior to facing UNC-Wilmington and Yale, the Blue Devils had lost four of seven games. The Blue Devils tend to push the pace that plays into Oregon's strength. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU!) their last 14 against teams which average 77 or more points per game. They're excited for a chance to beat "mighty Duke" and I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Maryland and Kansas to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both offenses, I also really respect both these defenses. The Jayhawks elevated their defensive intensity aganst UConn, limiting the Huskies to 61 points while holding them to 33.9% shooting from the field. Likewise, the Terps were extremely stingy last time out. They held Hawaii to 60 points, limiting the Warriors to 32.9% shooting from the field. Overall, the Terps allow 66.3 ppg, the Jayhawks allowing only slightly more at 67.9. Despite those solid defensive stats, we're still getting an O/U number in the 140s. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 23-10 (11-3 this season) the past couple of seasons, when Maryland has played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. During that span, Kansas has seen the UNDER go 20-11-2 when it played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. While the Jayhawks (82 ppg) can obviously score with the best of them, the Terps have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the last eight times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more per game. Look for those stats to improve Thursday night, as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10* Sweet 16 T.O.Y.

I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA. Grand Canyon has already accomplished a lot, winning its first two postseason games ever. Those both came at home though and GCU will now be making its longest road trip of the entire season. While the Antelopes may have a "bigger name" for a head coach (Dan Majerle) I believe that the Chanticleers bring a little more to the table and I look for their homecourt advantage to prove the difference. The Chanticleers were 13-3 here and that included a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in lined games. They're now 10-1 SU / 9-2 ATS their last 11 home lined games. GCU has a winning road record but actually got outscored by an average of 72.4 to 72 on the road this season. On the other hand, Coastal Carolina outscored opposing teams by a 79.4 to 63.4 margin here in Conway. As I said, look for homecourt to prove the difference. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Gators are playing very well so far in this tournament. Lets not be so quick to forget that this is the same team that lost five of its last seven regular season games and which got eliminated in the SEC quarterfinals. Lets also keep in mind that the Gators are still 9-10 on the road including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Colonials are 15-3 at home. While the Gators have failed to score 75 points in three of their last four, the Colonials have scored 80 or more in three straight and four of five. I expect them to advance to MSG, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on VALPARAISO. Both these teams had strong regular seasons. Both are among the top "mid-majors" in the country. (They finished the regular season ranked #1 and #2 in the CollegeInsider Mid-Major Top 25 coaches poll.) Obviously, both were hoping to be in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes, that can lead to a team going through the motions a little. I believe both teams are motivated to win tonight though, as both have overcome their disappointment and seemed determined to prove that they should have been "dancing." That said, I look for homecourt to ultimately prove the difference. 

The Gaels were very tough (20-1) to beat at home. They don't have a senior on the entire roster though and were occasionally vulnerable on the road. Four of their five losses came away from home. They're at an extremely tough venue tonight, as the Crusaders rarely lose here. Indeed, they're 31-2 here the past two years, 16-1 this season. The Gaels entered the Georgia game averaging 77.7 ppg at home, while shooting 53.8%. However, they enter tonight's game averaging only 69.3 ppg on the road. That's going to make it tough to keep up with a Crusaders team which averages better than 78 ppg on this floor and which has averaged 81 ppg its last five overall. 

The Gaels are only 6-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're just 11-24 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, after a minimum of 15 games had been played. With a healthy roster, which consists of four seniors, I look for the Crusaders to set the school record for most home wins tonight, covering the relatively small number along the way. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on NJ Tech. These teams met here a little over four months ago, as part of the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame Classic. The Highlanders won that one by a score of 90-76. While the Highlanders are quite healthy, the Terriers are a bit banged-up. While the Terriers barely won their first round game, a 3-point win at Fordham, the Highlanders hammered Army by 14 points. While the Terriers are 1-5 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS their last five lined home games. These coaches are friends from their days working together at Columbia. Jones, Boston's coach, got the better of Engles, NJIT's coach, back in 2009 when the two coaches first went up against each other. (Jones was still with Columbia at the time while Engles was already with NJIT.) However, as mentioned, Engles got the beter of Jones this season. Playing at home, I expect Engles' Highlanders to have the edge again this evening, covering the small number along the way. 10* CIT Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MARYLAND. I lost with the Terps in the first round but am fully willing to give them another shot in a favorable matchup today. Yes, the Terps got a little complacent last game. They still dominated almost the entire way though and I believe that their late game letdown will provide them with a wake-up call to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. The Warriors certainly played well in their opener. However, it should be noted that they were fortunate to catch Cal without senior point guard Tyrone Wallace, who broke his hand at practice a couple of days earlier. That upset was the program's first ever NCAA Tournament win, so the Warriors can already go home happy and holding their heads high. Prior to Friday, the Warriors' schedule included very few wins over quality opponents. The last time (2002) that Hawaii was in the tourney was the year that the Terps won it all. I expect them to take advantage of today's favorable matchup, ultimately pulling away for a convincing victory. 10*

I'm playing on Syracuse and Middle Tenn. State to finish UNDER the total. Interesting #10 vs. #15 matchup here. The Blue Raiders shocked everyone except themselves in beating Michigan State. They're a confident and mature team. While they beat the Spartans in a high-scoring game, the Blue Raiders also know a thing or two about defense. They were one of only two CUSA teams to allow less than 70 ppg this season and they won their conference championship game by a score of 55-53. They've allowed 61 or fewer points in four of their last six. The Orange delivered a dominant defensive effort in their opening game, beating Dayton by a 70-51 score. While the Orange hit fewer than 40% from the field, Dayton managed to connect on only 32% of its shots. Lastly, it should be noted that the Blue Raiders have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the past few years after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, a perfect 3-0 this season. They allowed 62, 64, and 53 points, those three games staying below the total by an average of 12 points a piece. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 10* 

I'm playing on Iowa. Its true that Villanova was more consistent overall this season. However, when the Hawkeyes are "on," they've been every bit as good. Having snapped out of their funk with a close win over Temple, the type of victory a team can often build positive momentum from, I expect the Hawkeyes to bring their "A game" this afternoon. The Wildcats are a very good team, as usual. They've been bounced in the second rournd of the tournament each of the past two years though and that figures to be in the back of their heads here. They're worried about advancing, not covering. Note that the Cats are just 5-8 ATS their last 13 against teams with a winning record and 1-3 ATS their last four against teams that score 77 or more. As for the Hawkeyes, they're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game AND, going back considerably further, 6-1 ATS their last seven as a neutral court underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Remember, that Iowa's last three losses all came by four or fewer points. Also, remember that this Iowa team was 4-0 against Michigan State and Purdue this season. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 10* breakfast club

I'm playing on Duke. Yale is certainly going to be the sentimental favorite. The Ivy League school that never makes it to the tournament against the perennial powerhouse that everyone loves to hate. Sentiment doesn't cash tickets though. Talent does. Yale was indeed impressive against Baylor. Duke had its wake up call though and won't be caught off guard. Admittedly, the Blue Devils don't have the depth that they'd like, a problem that may rear its head as they advance into the later rounds. The starting lineup is still considerably stronger than the one they'll face today though. The Blue Devils are 11-5 ATS the past couple of seasons after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, a situation they're 59-34 ATS in over the years. They were laying -14.5 points when they beat Yale by 19 points back in late November and I believe that getting them at less than half that price is a bargain. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Miami. Not too often that you'll find a #11 seed favored over a #3 seed. However, the Shockers probably deserved better than an #11 seed to begin with. I won with Wichita State in its "play in" game against Vanderbilt, so I'm well aware of what this team brings to the table. As you're aware, the Shockers followed up that victory with an impressive blowout of Arizona last game. That said, I still don't feel they should be favored here. I also believe that with this being an early game, that the "extra" play in game may take a toll here. Regardless, they're going to find a determined and underrated Miami team waiting for them. True, the Canes have failed to cover four in a row for the second time this season. The previous time that happened, they followed it up with a double-digit blowout of Duke. Overall, they're a perect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three or more games, going a profitable 28-12 ATS their last 40 lined games in that situation. The Canes know they're an underdog here and I expect them to come in with a chip on their shoulder. Angel Rodriguez noted: “I think throughout the year we’ve been disrespected, to a lot of people we haven’t done enough to prove ourselves, but this is March, and the spread doesn’t mean anything." Don't be shocked when Miami advances. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Many people like taking #12 seeds. After Yale and Arkansas Little Rock, a pair of #12 seeds, both won yesterday, that may be more true than ever today. This is one #5 vs. #12 matchup where I see the fifth seed having a significant advantage though. The Terps have more size, more skill, better athletes and better ball handlers. Needless to say, they're more battle-tested against quality opposition. Though this game is out in the Pacific Northwest (Spokane) I expect the venue and tempo to favor the Terps. While the Jackrabbits are just 6-8 ATS their last 14 neutral court games, the Terps are 5-1 SU/ATS in neutral court games this season, 2-0 SU/ATS when the total ranged from 140 to 144.5. Going back a couple of years finds them at 7-1 ATS when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range; they're 17-4 ATS their last 21 in that situation. The Terps, who are off a loss against Michigan State, have responded to their last two losses with a double-digit win in their next game, beating Illinois by 26 and Nebraska by 11. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this afternoon. 10* Rd Of 64 G.O.Y.

I'm playing on Hawaii and Cal to finish UNDER the total. For two teams that are both stingy defensively, I believe this number is generously high. Hawaii allows 66.5 ppg, limiting opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting. Cal also holds teams below 40% shooting, as opposing teams connect on just 39.3% of their shots against the Bears, who allow only 67 ppg. Prior to the 3/11 game vs. Utah, which went to OT, the Bears had held six straight opponents to less than 70 points. (Utah had 70 in regulation.) The Warriors began their conf. tournament by holding CS-Fullerton to a mere 44 points and closed it by limiting Long Beach State, the second highest scoring team in the Big West, to only 60. That 64-60 final stayed comfortably below the total and I believe this one will too. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on Kentucky and Stony Brook to finish UNDER the total. The Wildcats saw all their conference tournament games finish above the total. However, as a larger favorite in the opening round, I expect them to flex their defensive muscles. Note that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that Kentucky was a neutral court favorite in the 12.5 to 15 point range and that the UNDER is also 4-2 the last six times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Needless to say, this is an extremely tough matchup for the Seawolves. They had the best defense (63.4 ppg) in the America East Conference though, so that is their strength, at least. While the Seawolves naturally don't face the likes of Kentucky regularly, they have seen the UNDER go 5-0 (in five games with an O/U line) this season, when matched up against a team that scores 77 or more points per game. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 10* 

I’m playing on UTAH. While they’ve never met on a neutral court, the Utes are 10-4 in 14 all-time meetings with the Bulldogs. I expect them to have a considerable advantage on Thursday night. You may recall that the Utes made it all the way to the Sweet 16 last season. I believe that experience will serve them well this year. I also believe that this game being played at Denver, where they’ll receive strong fan support, will benefit the Utes. The blowout loss to Oregon notwithstanding, the Utes had a great season. The NCAA Selection Committee ranked them as the 11th best team in the country. I believe the Oregon loss will serve as a wake-up call and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10* Personal Fav

I’m playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils didn’t fare too well against the spread down the stretch. However, this should be a favorable first round matchup for them. To their credit, the Seahawks have come a very long way in two years. Prior to  Kevin Keatts taking over the program in 2014, the Seahawks had finished at 9-23. While we’ve seen #13 seeds take down #4 seeds before, the Seahawks had trouble just getting here. They beat Charleston and Northeastern, their first two opponents in the CAA Tourney, by only five points. Then, they needed OT to beat Hofstra in the finals. Making their first trip to the Big Dance in 10 years, the Seahawks are just thrilled to be here. They’ll get a reality check on Thursday afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on Nevada. The Wolfpack had hoped to be going to a "bigger" tournament. However, they're likely less disappointed than the Grizzlies. Montana just played three games in three days, losing the final one of those on 3/12 against Weber State in the Big Sky title game. The Grizzlies closed as slight favorites in that one (I played against them there too) but lost by three. To be that close to the Big Dance, only to not get there, has to sting. This is the first tournament of any kind for the Wolfpack in (four) years. So, while disappointed, they're also excited. Nevada senior Tyron Criswell noted: "Coach asked us, 'Guys, do you want to play in this thing?, ‘We can win it.' We all agreed that we wanted to keep playing." Criswell went on to say: "I definitely want to go out a winner." The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) off a conference loss this season and they outscored teams by more than 10 points per game on this floor. I like their chances here. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Tulsa. While these teams have a number of similar stats, one is far more experienced than the other. The Wolverines certanly had an exciting journey here, a pair of extremely close wins in the Big Ten Tourney getting them here. This is still a relatively young Michigan team though; they've got two seniors and both are hurt. On the other hand, Tulsa is among the most experienced teams in the country. As guard James Woodard commented: "We've got to use our veteran-laden team as an advantage in this tournament because we have been around a long time. We've seen every situation." The Golden Hurricane start four seniors and a junior and they've got another three seniors on the bench, all of whom are regular contributors. I expect that experience to ultimately be the difference and am grabbing the points. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Arkansas Little Rock. The second-seeded Warhawks fell behind 12-0 out of the gate yesterday but then "woke up" and took care of business against UT-Arlington. That was a team that they beat both times in the regular season and that they felt confident against. This afternoon's opponent is on an entirely different level though. The Trojans have an impressive 28 wins but they know that doesn't ensure them of an NCAA berth. Rather than sweat it out later, they know they need to take care of business today. They've got more depth than the Warhawks and a better defense. As well as the Warhawks have played defensively of late, the Trojans are still better. They allow a mere 59.9 ppg and they're nearly every bit as good away from home, allowing just 60.7 ppg on 38.6% shooting. I believe that'll be the difference today. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Weber State. The Grizzlies may be a popular choice in this one but I look for the Wildcats to be the team that cuts down the nets. Both teams allow 67 ppg. However, Weber State scores 77.2 ppg while Montana averages 72.9. Playing at home Weber State won this season's lone meeting, 60-54. You may recall that game got pretty heated. In fact, a scuffle broke out afterwards when the teams were shaking hands. Note that Weber State's Joel Bolomboy didn't even play in that one, despite being honored for Senior Day. Off a 19 rebound (and 17 points) effort yesterday, he's back in a big way now.

It was on this very day (3/12/15) last year that Montana knocked Weber State out of the Big Sky Tourney last year, a 76-73 OT win. That was a top-seeded Montana team against a Weber State team which won only 13 games at the time. A win today will give this year's team twice that many. I expect them to get it. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Temple. I won with the Owls yesterday and I really like them again this afternoon. While Temple had a nice tune-up game for this one (against USF) the Huskies left everything on the floor - and then some - to beat Cincy. Indeed, they needed four OT periods to dispatch of the pesky Bearcats. Give the Huskies credit for pulling off the win (Cincy's Mick Cronin said the game was "taken" from his team by the refs) but that marathon figures to take a toll on them today. The Owls won both regular season meetings and each game was very close. The two were decided by an average of just 3.5 points, each by five or less. While its true that it can sometimes be tough to beat a team three times in the same season, its also true that winning builds confidence. The Owls, who also won at Cincy this season, had the better road record than the Huskies this year. They know they can beat this team and they'll come in with a lot of confidence. I expect them to be "fresher" and I'll gladly take any points that they're willing to give me. 10* best bet 

I'm playing on DAYTON. I won with the Flyers yesterday and I really like their chances again this afternoon. While the Hawks won the lone regular season meeting, that was at St. Joseph's. (Today's game is at Barclays Center) The Hawks had a tougher matchup yesterday and it showed. While Dayton cruised to a double-digit victory over Richmond, St Joe's needed a furious second half rally to come back and beat George Washington. Give the Hawks credit for completing that comeback, as that win likely punched their ticket to the Big Dance. However, they had to really leave it all on the floor and may be feeling the effects a little more than the Flyers today. While I certainly respect the Hawks, I believe the Flyers are a little stingier on the defensive side of the ball. While the Flyers gave up 54 points yesterday, the Hawks gave up 80. They've now allowed 78 or more in three straight games. I look for that to be the difference as revenge-minded Dayton scratches and claws its way to the important win. 10* Breakfast Club

I'm playing on LSU. While I won with the Aggies yesterday, I believe that they're laying too large a number here and that the Tigers are a more dangerous team than many realize. Many of you know that I also played on LSU yesterday. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "...LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here..." Of course, the Aggies know all about Simmons, as he had a near triple-double when the Tigers beat the Aggies at LSU. (The Aggies won the game at Texas A&M.) While both teams obviously want to win, this game is arguably much bigger for LSU. The Aggies know they're going dancing. However, if the Tigers don't win this tournament, or at least today's game, Simmons will head off to the NBA without ever having a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament. He didn't play much yesterday but I expect the Tigers' star to lead his team to AT LEAST a cover this afternoon. 10* Breakfast Club (Shocker)

I'm playing on TULSA. The Tigers are off a huge win in their last game. Clearly, they're still an athletic team which is very capable. That said, they've been inconsistent. In fact, they've won just five of their last 14 games and they haven't won two in a row since way back in January. They're 1-6 SU/ATS off a conference win. With four wins in their final five games, the Golden Hurricane have been far more consistent down the stretch. True, the lone loss came at Memphis. They're 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss.

While they're 17-14 record may seem disappointing, the Tigers knew this was supposed to be a rebuiding year. Not so for the Golden Hurricane. They came in to the season with high expectations and they still believe they've got what it takes to make it to the Big Dance. They know that a big run in this tournament is mandatory to make that a reality. While the Tigers have struggled off a conference win, Tulsa has thrived in that situation. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane are 29-13 ATS (31-11 SU) the past few seasons, off an AAC win. 

Note that although this game is being played at the Amway Center (Orlando) the line is essentially the same as it was when Tulsa played at Memphis, the Golden Hurricane laying a small number. I believe thats providing us with excellent value and I'm planning on taking advantage. 10* AAC Tourney GOY.

I'm playing on LSU. Great win for the Vols yesterday. In addition to being a bitter rival, Vanderbilt was a talented team. They'll be up against an even better one here though. LSU is led by SEC Freshman Of The Year, Ben Simmons. The Tigers' star may in fact be the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. If he's not, he'll be close. On pace to become the first player ever to finish in the SEC’s top five for scoring (19.6 ppg), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.0) in the same season, Simmons does it all. Simmons and co. are better than they showed down the stretch and they'll be looking to prove it here. 

The Vols won the lone reg. season meeting. However, that was at Tennessee. Off yesterday's emotional victory, one which saw them squander a 15-point lead before rallying to hang on, and now playing their third game in three days, I expect the Vols to come back down to earth. The well-rested Tigers are 12-8 ATS (13-7 SU) the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. I say its payback time. 10* SEC Tourney GOY