Sports Picks & Predictions

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

The Bruins welcome the No. 10 Utah Utes to Pauley Pavilion Thursday in a game that could truly define UCLA’s place in the Pac-12 picture. The Bruins have lost their last two games and are back home after playing three straight on the road.

UCLA is treading water in the conference standings and desperately needs a big-name victory to fill out its resume before tournament time. This is a massive revenge spot for the Bruins, who choked on a 71-39 lopsided loss in Salt Lake City earlier this month – a defeat that set the tone for an inconsistent conference schedule.

The Bruins are a different team inside Pauley, shooting 47.2 percent as hosts compared to a chilly 36.5 percent on the road. UCLA averages 83.9 points per home stand – a 23.9-point increase over its road scoring average. And the Bruins turn the ball over just 10.9 times in Pauley Pavilion, a much steadier hand than the 13.8 turnovers per game on the road.

The Utes are a similar bread, having great success at home but having a tough time translating that to their away schedule. Utah has played only six games on the road so far, going 3-3 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. And much like the Bruins, the Utes see a drastic dropoff in offensive production when in enemy territory. They score 81.8 points per home game but only 60 on the road. The home team just so happens to be a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meeting between these Pac-12 members.

The Bruins playing for revenge on their home court and the Utes' dropoff on the road is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

INDIANA at PURDUE
I am playing on PURDUE. The Hoosiers continue a tough week after facing a feisty Ohio State squad on Sunday and now they head to state rival Purdue where Mackey Arena should prove to be another hostile environment.   
The Boilermakers should have some helpful film to work with after Sunday's game because the Buckeyes figured out the key to beating Indiana and executed on it. 
On defense against the Hoosiers, it's all about stopping the dribble penetration. Indiana has a talented slate of guards who like to push the ball inside and decide from there whether to kick it out or drive to the hoop based on what the defense gives, and they are more than happy to do either. 
Ohio State forced 15 turnovers after Indiana averaged just nine in its five previous conference games prior to that. 
On offense, the Hoosiers can be beaten in the paint and I think this is where Purdue can give them a mismatch. Freshman Isaac Haas and junior A.J. Hammons each average over 10 points per game and I believe they can outperform the Hoosiers down low. 
Indiana will be without its best big man, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who is out with a knee injury until mid February and Robert Johnson, a key all-around guard, is questionable after he hurt his knee last game. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I am taking the Irish in this nationally televised game on ESPN2 where I think the home crowd is going to make a huge difference in a gritty contest. 
Notre Dame is 13-1 on home court this season, not to mention the Irish are off to their best 21-game start since the early 1970s. Duke has some impressive scoring numbers that match up pretty well against Notre Dame's this season but they get worse on the road and I think the Irish will pull it out in a hard fought game. 
The Blue Devils are averaging eight fewer points on the road and they give up 5.5 more points. I think that will sting against an Irish team that is the top shooting team in the conference and second best shooting team in Division 1 hoops (52.1 percent on field goals). The Irish are also tops in the conference in 3-pointers per game (nine) and 3-point percentage (40). 
It's that perimeter shooting that I think will give Duke troubles with its recent 2-3 zone defense. I also think the Blue Devils may have a bit of an emotional letdown here after earning Coach K his 1000th win on Sunday. 10* Notre Dame

I am playing on PITTSBURGH. Virginia Tech comes into this game in an absolutely brutal spot and I think they're going to have a tough time with Pitt here.  The Hokies enter this game having played four consecutive top 15 teams - Virginia, Notre Dame, UNC and Louisville - and they lost all four to make it seven straight defeats. The Hokies now enter Tuesday's game on a 12-game conference losing streak and I believe they won't be able to shake off the hangover after the most recent loss, to state rival Virginia. was their most crushing. They blew a 10-point lead to lose by three points as 16.5-point dogs.  Virginia Tech will be without its top scorer, guard Justin Bibbs again Tuesday, who has missed the last three games with a concussion. The Hokies just aren't the same squad without him and they are averaging a measly 53.3 points in his absence.  The Hokies are also getting obliterated on the boards night in and night out. They have been out-rebounded by a minimum of 13 boards and as many as 25 over their past three outings and I just don't believe they can get hot enough shooting without their best player to make up for that. 10* Personal Favorite 

I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Monday.

North Carolina takes a five-game winning streak into this clash with Syracuse at home, continuing to build momentum as ACC play stiffens up. The Tar Heels have had some close games during this span but will benefit from a home-court crowd in Chapel Hill and a complete mismatch in pace.

North Carolina is scoring more than 79 points per game and runs one of the fastest paces in the country, averaging 72.8 possessions per game. The Tar Heels will look to their speed to force Syracuse out of its slow-motion comfort zone.

The Orange, known for their zone defense, have also been playing a methodical pace on offense, as to combat their own offensive inefficiencies. Syracuse is turning out 68.4 points per game on under 44 percent shooting from the field, including a poor 31.9 percent touch from the 3-point arc. That field goal percentage dips to just above 40 percent when hitting the highway.

North Carolina will use its speed and scoring depth to put SU on its heels, beat the zone defense down the floor before it can set up and force the Orange to pick up the pace on offense. Even the slightest lead can balloon for UNC, with Syracuse lacking the horse power to claw its way back on the scoreboard.

The Tar Heels' up-tempo attack and the Orange’s lack of scoring pop on the road is why I’m playing on North Carolina as a 10* Main Event Monday.

10* Ohio State analysis

I’m playing on the Florida Gators as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Gators head to Oxford to take on the Ole Miss Rebels in an SEC showdown. Billy Donovan’s kids are coming off ugly back-to-back losses and this isn’t a coach or a program that allows those skids to turn into slumps. I fully expect a rejuvenated Florida team to hit the court against Mississippi and we’re getting tremendous line value with the Gators due to those stumbles.

Florida has let up defensively in those losses to LSU and Georgia, allowing those teams to shoot a combined 54 percent from the field and knock down 16 of 28 from beyond the arc (57 percent). Those are uncharacteristic numbers for a Donovan team, especially one that has limited foes to just 58.9 points per game on 40 percent shooting on the season.

Ole Miss isn’t much of a threat from distance, shooting just 35.6 percent from the perimeter for the year. The Rebels have been even colder in their last three games, knocking down just 30.4 percent of looks from 3-point range and finished 4 for 18 from beyond the arc in a loss to Georgia last time out.

Mississippi has also had issues keeping opponents off the boards, giving up 10 offensive rebounds a night. Ole Miss ranks 197th in opponents’ total rebounds per game and takes on a beefy Gators frontcourt featuring glass eaters Dorian Finney-Smith, Jon Horford, and Chris Walker. Expect Florida to exploit that size down low and pick up plenty of second-chance looks.

The Gators tightening up on defense against a poor perimeter-orientated Rebels squad and that ability to dominate the glass is why I’m playing on Florida as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Minnesota hosts the Illinois Fighting Illini in a battle of Big Ten teams trying to make up some lost ground in the standings. The Golden Gophers haven’t played their best basketball to kick off conference play but there is plenty of reasons to like this program and Saturday’s game is going to be Minnesota’s coming-out party.

The Gophers have suffered some close losses to open Big Ten competition and a few breaks here and there could have this team sitting in a much sweeter spot. Minnesota has lacked the little things that make the difference in those tight games, like foul shooting and rebounding. The Golden Gophers are shooting 68 percent from the stripe at home – compared to just 59 percent on the road – and matchup with an Illinois team that has been any but dominant on the boards.

The Fighting Illini are missing some key members of their backcourt and have turned in some inconsistent efforts on defense, locking down Purdue to just 57 points in their most recent outing but allowing Indiana to run up 80 points in the game before. Minnesota is a deep team with six different players putting up an average of at least 8.9 points a contest.

The Golden Gophers turning the corner at home and Illinois struggling to contain that depth is why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers have used their tough defense to go 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games and they face a Minnesota team that isn't exactly loving Big Ten season right now.  The Gophers are just 1-5 since conference play began and their bettors haven't seen a dime in any of those games after an 0-6 against the spread start. I don't think Minnesota's luck is about to change going up against a Nebraska field-goal defense  that ranks third in the Big Ten and is on pace to be the best Husker D in over 50 years.  Nebraska also held its first 16 opponents this season to just 27.6 percent from beyond the 3-point line until they let Wisconsin shoot better than 50 percent last game. I think that was just an anomaly though and we'll see Nebraska return to its normal self Tuesday night.  Minnesota is notorious to Big Ten counterparts for being better at home than on the road and the Gophers' numbers are proving it so far again this year. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road in conference play and allowed at least 70 points in all three games. The Gophers also score about 10 fewer points on the road than their overall average this season.  I think Nebraska's Tim Petteway, the Big Ten's second leading scorer, will generate enough Huskers enough offense to cover this small number against a weak road team and the Husker D will take care of the rest.   10* Main Event

I’m playing on Cal. State Fullerton as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Titans are providing terrific value at home in this battle between the bottom team in the Big West standings and the first-place UC Davis Aggies.

While it seems like there are miles between these programs when looking at their overall win/loss records, a closer look at the Titans’ non-conference slate and you quickly know why. Cal State Fullerton has gone toe-to-toe with some big-name teams, including New Mexico, Southern Cal, and UCLA. This is a tested team that hasn’t shied away from stiff competition and it should show in this matchup with the conference’s current top dog.

The Aggies have overachieved so far this season, thanks to a softer non-conference schedule and 2-0 start to Big West play. UC Davis stunned Long Beach State in overtime at home as 3-point underdogs and then took an easy victory at UC Irvine, but entered the year projected to finish seventh in the Big West.

This team relies heavily on its scoring to put distance on the scoreboard, especially from its shots from beyond the arc. The Aggies are the top 3-point shooting team in the country, knocking down 43.9 percent of their looks from long range. But that's always a dangerous reliance when hitting the highway and playing in foreign gyms. 

The Titans have a potent attack of their own. Cal State Fullerton has tinkered with its starting five over the course of non-conference play, which hindered the development of its offensive chemistry. But, the Titans have run the same starting five the last seven outings, producing 71.2 points per game in that span – matching UC Davis’ season average of 71.2, which ranks 105th in the country.

The Titans’ toughness in big games and their improved offensive chemistry is why I’m playing on Cal State Fullerton as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Georgetown Hoyas as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Hoyas are back home in DC after playing their last two games on the road, opening the doors of the Verizon Center to the Butler Bulldogs.

This is a revenge spot for Georgetown after falling to Butler earlier in the season, losing 64-58 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in November. The Hoyas found themselves down early in that contest and couldn’t battle back, but were coming off a grueling game versus Wisconsin and an overtime affair with Florida. Fast forward to Saturday, and Georgetown is getting great line value as a short favorite at home to the Bulldogs.

Georgetown isn’t going to give many second-chance looks at the basket, with 37.7 boards per contests. That includes limiting opponents to an average of only 7.3 offensive rebounds over the Hoyas’ last three games. Butler, which leads the Big East in rebounding, ripped down just six offensive rebounds in the first meeting with the Hoyas and won’t find easy second looks Saturday.

Georgetown will look to pick up the pace versus the Bulldogs and beat their zone back to the key. The Hoyas defense is forcing 13.5 turnovers per game, with 7.8 of those coming off steals. The Hoyas will parlay those takeaways into easy transition buckets before the Bulldogs can get set on defense.

The Hoyas out for revenge on their own court and their ability to clean the glass is why I’m playing on Georgetown as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on FLORIDA. SEC conference season has sort of become Gator season and it's hard not to love Florida now that league play has begun. 
The Gators are 2-0 straight up and against the spread since SEC play began and they bring a school record of 23 straight conference wins into tonight's home tilt with Auburn. They're also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight conference games and it seems oddsmakers just can't keep up with Billy Donovan's club in Southeastern contests.
The Gators started the season with a bit of a bump, going 3-4 to open the year. But Donovan said that was all part of the growing process and the Gators are in a much better spot now.  
“I think, in my opinion for this team was the fact that our schedule was so challenging. We were forced to deal with the truth, we were forced to grow, we were forced to confront things we need to get better at,” he said this week. 
The Gators are playing better as a team overall and had 14 assists against South Carolina to open SEC play followed by 19 assists in a romp over Miss State after that. I think we'll see that trend continue upward as the Gators roll on and cover this big spread tonight. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats are smoking hot with their shooting right now and I believe make a great play tonight against a team that tries to win in shootouts. 
Xavier doesn't have the team defensive capabilities - especially on the road - to slow Nova down with the Musketeers allowing a porous 76.5 points away from home this year. And although Xavier is the top scoring team in the Big East, I really don't think they want to get into a gunslinger's match with Villanova right now. 
Nova has far more depth, boasting five players who average double digits this season and two more who score at least 7.8 points per game. The Wildcats have 171 points over their last two games combined and shot at least 53 percent from field goal range and at least 43 percent from 3-point land in each game. 
I don't think anyone is slowing down Nova right now - especially on home court. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Tennessee Volunteers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

The Volunteers are chomping at the bit to get back on the court after a sluggish loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last time out. Tennessee hosts the red-hot Arkansas Razorback back, and oddsmakers are being very generous in Knoxville.

We see great value with the Vols at home Tuesday. The home team has covered in four of the last five meeting between these SEC rivals and the underdog has been a profitable 10-4 ATS in the previous 14 clashes between Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas has been able to put up some big numbers to start the season, ranking seventh in the country in scoring. However, the Hogs defense hasn’t been nearly as efficient – especially away from home. The Razorbacks are giving up 77.5 points per game to host teams heading into this contest.

Tennessee is trying to shake itself out of an offensive funk with a new look. Head coach Donnie Tyndall told the media he plans on tinkering with his starting lineup in order to put more experience on the floor during these tight SEC matchups.

Tyndall is trying to find other outlets on offense besides Josh Richardson, who has taken the brunt of opponents’ defensive attention. Junior forward Derek Reese is expected to get more minutes and will help lighten the scoring burden on Richardson.

The Razorbacks' defensive woes on the road and the Volunteers looking to jump start their scoring at home is why I’m playing on Tennessee as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. This series has a history of Gonzaga laying too many points against an inferior San Francisco team and I think we have the same situation tonight. 
The Dons have are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 meetings with Gonzaga and they are getting twice as many points tonight as they have in any game all season. It's also the biggest number this series has seen in at least the last 10 meetings.
San Francisco can shoot (46 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3-point land) which is a key reason I think they can keep it within cover distance tonight. The Zags are also playing their first home game since Dec. 15, so they may not be quite as sharp as usual at home. And Gonzaga is also introducing Vanderbilt transfer Eric McClellan into the lineup tonight in his first game being eligible. 
He led Vandy in points before he transferred and will be a great addition for Gonzaga, but I think the Bulldogs may try to work him into the game too much tonight against a weaker team and their offensive rhythm may be thrown off a bit. 
I believe this is too many points to give away against a team that can get hot shooting where Gonzaga may be more concerned with working a new player into the lineup than winning in a huge blowout. 10* Best Bet   

I am playing on XAVIER. After upsetting two ranked teams last week, Seton Hall has completely lost its element of surprise and I like Xavier to be fully prepared tonight and I really like them to cover the number. 
I believe the Musketeers have seen enough now to know how Seton Hall operates, which is to play high-pressure defense off rebounds and try to slow teams down in transition. Xavier should have some plans of how to combat that now and the Musketeers are no easy team to slow down to begin with. 
Xavier leads the Big East in scoring (79.9 points per game) and field-goal percentage (49.8) and is a team that knows how to light up a scoreboard. Seton Hall has also benefited from stopping teams from beyond the arc, where it ranks fourth in the nation but I don't think the Pirates can depend on that tonight. Xavier knocks down an amazing 40.3 percent of its shots from downtown at home this season, where it is 5-2 against the spread in games featuring a posted line. 
Seton Hall is just 1-2 on the road this season, where it allows 70 points per game compared to a season average of 60.8 points against per game. 
I just don't think oddsmakers are making Xavier lay enough here. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Portland Pilots as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

The Pilots are one of the hottest bets in college basketball heading into this weekend, riding a five-game ATS winning streak and have covered in nine of their 12 lined games this season. Portland is getting plenty of points at home to the Gonzaga Bulldogs Saturday.

The Pilots’ potent offense has lifted it over the oddsmakers’ expectations in those games. They’re putting up 73.3 points a night with one of the best perimeter games in the WCC. Portland is shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc but has been especially hot from distance the last three games, knocking down 47.4 percent of its looks from long range – averaging nine 3-pointers per contest in that span.

That ability to stretch the defense with that outside shooting touch lines up perfect against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs depend on their size inside to push around teams. However, with the Pilots bringing those big men outside the key, and returning to friendly rims after playing the last two games away from home, Gonzaga’s biggest strength could be neutralized.

This will technically be Gonzaga’s four straight road game after playing Cal Poly on a neutral court and traveling to BYU and San Diego before the New Year. The Bulldogs will find some size challenging them inside on the offensive end of the floor, and won’t dominate the boards like they have most opponents. Portland had outrebounded 12 of its 14 opponents and ranks 28th in rebounding margin at plus-7.6.

The Pilots' sharp shooting from beyond the arc and their toughness on the glass is why I’m playing Portland as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Florida Gators as a 10* Saturday.

These teams clashed in the Final Four last year, with UConn edging Florida to reach the national championship. The Gators have revenge on their minds as they host the Huskies Saturday. Florida has stumbled a bit in non-conference play, thanks to some offensive issues, but still play Donovan’s lock-down defense, giving up only 56.2 points per game – ranked 15th in the country.

Connecticut comes into this rematch with a limp. The Huskies could be without top scorer Ryan Boatright, who missed practice this week with a thigh contusion. Even if Boatright fights through a painful thigh injury, the Gators aggressive defense will go after the senior guard and put his health to the test.

The Huskies aren’t scoring a lot of points, so much of the offense depends solely on Boatright to make plays. He’s also an anchor on the perimeter on the defensive end. Connecticut will turn to versatile Daniel Hamilton to shoulder some of the ball handling duties, which takes him out of a scoring role and throws a major wrench in the Huskies' offensive sets.

This is also UConn’s first true road test of the season, after playing on neutral sites during non-conference competition. The Gainesville faithful will be frothing at the mouth after losing to the Huskies in last year’s tournament, so expect a heavy home-court edge for the Gators inside the Stephen C. O'Connell Center.

The Gators' defense keying in on the Huskies' weak links and a revenge-fueled home crowd is why I’m playing on Florida as a 10* Saturday.

I’m playing on the Xavier Musketeers as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The Musketeers open their second year of Big East play against the gatekeepers of the conference, the Georgetown Hoyas, at home as part of the Big East’s New Year’s Eve Marathon. The Cintas Center in Cincinnati will serve as the Hoyas' first true road test of the year.

Georgetown is coming off a close win over Indiana, knocking off the Hoosiers 91-87 in overtime in a neutral-site matchup in Madison Square Garden Saturday. The Hoyas haven’t had to face a hostile crowd and will likely get an earful of New Year’s cheer from the Xavier faithful on Dec. 31.

Georgetown struggled away from D.C. last season, going just 2-9 on the road including five straight road losses to end the schedule. Going back to last year, the Hoyas are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last eight away games versus teams with a winning record.

The Musketeers are coming off a strong 9-3 SU non-conference schedule, butting heads with the likes of Auburn, Missouri, UTEP, Alabama, Long Beach State (twice), San Diego, Murray State, and Florida Gulf Coast – a solid mix of major-conference competitors and mid-major heavyweights. Xavier has done a fine job getting ready for the grind of Big East play.

Xavier ranks 16th in the country in scoring, pouring in 81.8 points per game – shooting 50.9 percent from the field - with an up-and-down style that contrasts Georgetown’s slow-motion Princeton offense. We’ve seen the Hoyas on their heels against teams that push the tempo, and the Musketeers play one of the fastest paces in the country.

The Hoyas' troubles on the road and the Musketeers' up-tempo attack is why I’m playing on Xavier as a 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Michigan Wolverines as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

The Wolverines are hoping some home cooking can get them back on track with Big Ten play opening against the Illinois Fighting Illini Tuesday. Michigan snapped a four-game skid with a victory over Coppin State Eagles, but failed to cover the spread for the seventh straight game. The market has soured on the Wolverines and we see that with this very slim spread at home. There’s value to be had with Michigan in what could already be a must-win game.

Michigan head coach John Beilein has been harping on defense since his program’s four-game slide, getting a much better effort in the win against the Eagles. The Wolverines sit near the bottom of the Big Ten in most defensive statistics but have done a good job creating turnovers, forcing opponents to cough up the ball 14.5 times per game.

Illinois does a very good job of taking care of the ball but if Michigan can up the intensity on defense and force the Illini to make some mistakes, the Wolverines could blow this game wide open. Illinois is not sound defensively and has already been ripped by some big-name programs, giving up 77 points to Oregon and 73 points to Villanova.

The Wolverines will definitely have a unique home-court edge for Tuesday’s conference opener. Rumor has it that the school will introduce new head football coach Jim Harbaugh – a former Michigan star – at the game. That has sparked a flood of ticket sales and will pack the Crisler Center for what would normally be a ho-hum matinee game. Michigan has covered in seven of its last eight versus Illinois and 12 of its last 14 home stands against the Illini.

The market overacting to the Wolverines' struggles and a big boost coming at home is why I’m playing on Michigan as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

10* Tennessee. Analysis before 7am PST

I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Cornhuskers are coming off their lowest scoring game of the season after a 50-42 win over Loyola-Marymount, but they finished the game on a high note and I think they’ll carry that momentum into this Christmas Day game against Ohio.

Junior Terran Pettaway has been a shining offensive bright spot for the Huskers and he hit two three pointers and went 7-for-8 at the free throw line in overtime to lead Nebraska to the win. Nebraska also came up with two big stops in OT to seal the deal.

“(The offense) is going to come. One thing we pride ourselves on is defense, and that’s what got us through the Big Ten (last year),” Pettaway said after the game.

Nebraska’s defense held LMU to just 16 points in the first half, a record for futility in a half in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii

Ohio might be just the team to be facing to get some scoring going. The Bobcats have allowed an average of 74.2 points against over their last five games and they're allowing opponents to shoot 43.6 percent from the field during that span.

Nebraska is allowing super stingy 60.4 points per game over its last five, which isn't far away from the team's season average of 61.9.

I feel the Huskers' suffocating defense, along with the generous defense of Ohio, will propel the Huskers to a win and cover on Christmas Day. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on UNLV. The Rebels play on the Strip for the first time in the school's history in this Coaches vs. Cancer matchup at the MGM Grand Arena and I love that they're getting a pile of points.
The Rebels are coming off a gritty 75-73 overtime win over Portland but they were six-point favorites in that game and coach Dave Rice wasn't happy with the effort. I think that actually benefits the Rebels in this spot because Rice spent time in the film room with his team this week hammering on rebounding and getting his team focused for Utah. I think we'll see a much sharper UNLV team tonight as a result. 
The Rebs got out-rebounded 35-27 against Portland and Rice said it was largely due to the guards not boxing out and being where they're supposed to be on rebounds. I think we'll see them correct that problem tonight and try to get up and down the floor quickly against a big Utah squad. 
Utah hasn't played in a week since losing to Kansas in its last game and we may see some rust early from the Utes. That works in our favor with UNLV seeing the most underdog points of the season since the team played Stanford Nov. 21. 
The Rebels have scored at least 75 points in each of their last three games and Utah hasn't scored more than 69 in its last three games.
I like UNLV to at least keep it close tonight and possibly even pull off the upset in what is the last game on the college board tonight. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Main Event Saturday. The Bruins take a four-game winning streak into the weekend but face a huge test in the Gonzaga Bulldogs inside Pauley Pavilion. Oddsmakers aren’t giving UCLA much respect and there is value in a very talented Bruins team.

UCLA took some losses on the chin against some of the better basketball programs in the country, falling to Oklahoma and North Carolina at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, but have built back up its confidence with a softer schedule in recent weeks. The Bruins have won four in a row – just what this team needed to boost its confidence.

One of the players seeing the benefit of this stretch of schedule is freshman forward Kevon Looney. He’s averaging over 13 points and almost 11 rebounds in those four wins and will be called upon to go up against one of the best frontcourts in the country Saturday. Looney is a tough matchup for the Bulldogs big men, with his ability to play down low or on the wing. Gonzaga doesn’t see players like the 6-foot-9 five-star recruit every day.

Gonzaga’s backcourt has hit a bit of a snag. Star guard Kevin Pangos was scoreless in the Bulldog’s win over Washington State and had just eight points in the loss to Arizona. Gonzaga continues to struggle with its guard rotation since freshman backup PG Josh Perkins went down with a broken jaw. Pangos is often stranded at point guard, unable to find his scoring rhythm. He also faces a much bigger UCLA backcourt Saturday, which should add to his offensive woes.

The Bruins being able to stretch the Bulldogs big men and limit Gonzaga’s backcourt scoring is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth is one the mid-major gatekeepers, having shown its dominance in past NCAA tournaments. The Rams host a fellow mid-major star in No. 24 Northern Iowa Saturday.

The Panthers ride a perfect 9-0 record into the week, coming off a tough situational spot in Denver. Northern Iowa’s national ranking has put a target on its back – something the Panthers aren’t used to dealing with. The Rams have made a name for themselves sinking Top 25 teams and have been playing at one of the highest levels in the country this winter.

Virginia Commonwealth has had a week to prepare following a loss to Virginia and has already played other major-conference opponents Oregon, Villanova, and Tennessee. The Rams boast the seventh hardest schedule in the country and the combined record of their pre-Christmas opponents is 71-26. Outside of the motivation of knocking off a ranked team, VCU also has revenge in mind after losing to NIU 77-68 last December.

The Rams defense isn’t playing up to their past standings, allowing 70.2 points per game. They’re still forcing opponents to make mistakes – averaging 17.6 forced turnovers per game – but have been exposed in the half-court set. Virginia Commonwealth will try to hurry up the NIU offense with their infamous pressure defense and turn those mistakes into quick buckets.

The Rams playing at a much higher level of competition with revenge on their home court as the fuel is why I’m playing on VCU as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on the IOWA HAWKEYES. Home court has been the ultimate factor in this bitter in-state rivalry with 10 of the last 11 victories going to the home side. It’s the biggest reason I like the Hawkeyes tomorrow, with this game being held in Iowa City. 
"I don’t think it’s different in a rivalry game than in other games," said Iowa coach Fran McCaffery this week.
Sure it’s not, coach. It certainly wasn't the case last year. The Hawkeyes let the Cyclones score the final eight points in the game and they ultimately lost 85-82 as a hostile crowd rained hatred down on an Iowa team that felt its collar squeeze a little too tightly. 
The shoe will be on the other foot this time around. Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be sold out for the first time in eight games this season and the cheapest tickets on StubHub are pushing 60 bucks. 
Expect that crowd to focus on Iowa State star Bryce Dejean-Jones, who was suspended Thursday by the Cyclones for a recent drug related arrest. He is expected to travel with the team to Iowa City, but won’t play. He’ll be an absolutely huge loss for Iowa State as the team’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer with 17.1 points per game. The loss is made even worse by the fact Iowa plays some pretty tough D and ranks ninth in the nation at defending field goals. 
This marks Iowa State’s first true road game of the season and I don’t like the way things are stacking up for the Cyclones. Gimme Iowa to cover its third straight meeting in this series. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. Home court is one of the biggest reasons why I love the Colonials to win and cover the number in this home-and-home series with DePaul that will finish next year in Chicago. 
George Washington is 18-1 in its last 19 contests at Smith Center including 3-0 this season where they claimed those three contests by an average of 33.0 points. If that trend continues tonight, that's enough to cover the spread by three times over.
The Colonials are also on a 7-2 against the spread run at home dating back to last season and I expect them to overpower DePaul tonight with tough defense and great team basketball.    
GW owns the 35th best scoring defense in the country (58.0 ppg against), the 31st ranked three-point defense (27.5 percent) and the team is 38th in fewest fouls per game (15.9).
Joe McDonald is the backbone on offense and is the kind of do-everything point guard that coaches dream about. He has 8.9 points, 1.4 steals and a team-high 6.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. I don't believe DePaul will be able to match up with GW's backcourt with McDonald and junior guard Patricio Garino. Garino is on fire with 16.5 points on 62 percent shooting in the Colonials' past four games and he leads the team in scoring with 14.6 points per contest. 
George Washington is also the far better rebounding team in this contest with a 5.6 rebounding margin compared to DePaul's -0.9 margin. I think George Washington will control the play with its rebounding, defense and backcourt play and will be able to handily take down the Blue Demons on home court. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Arizona Wildcats as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Wildcats put their unbeaten record up against the unblemished Gonzaga Bulldogs and can boost their national ranking with another win over one of biggest mid-major powers in the country.

Arizona’s depth was on display in its most recent win, rolling Gardner-Webb 91-65. It got double-digit scoring efforts from four players and had 11 players make the scoresheet. The Wildcats’ bench contributed 33 points in the victory and helped jump start an offense that has dragged its feet in the opening half.

Arizona coach Sean Miller is preaching quicker starts after his team averaged just 34 points in the first half of games this season. The Wildcats answered with 40 first-half points versus Gardner-Webb. Arizona is having no issues closing out opponents, thanks in part to that scoring depth, putting up an average of 41.9 points in the final 20 minutes – 17th in the country.

That ability to pour it on late will overwhelm a Gonzaga team still trying to patch up holes in its backcourt since losing guard Josh Perkins to a broken jaw. Perkins was averaging just five points per game as a freshman coming off the bench, but his most important role was spelling Kevin Pangos at points guard, allowing Pangos to more to the No. 2 guard and give the Bulldogs more scoring punch.

Gonzaga struggled in the first half versus Southeastern Louisiana, actually trailing the Lions 33-32 at the break. Pangos cooled off after scoring all 12 of his points in the first half, being left to handle point guard duties. The Bulldogs will need his extra scoring punch if they want to keep up with Arizona.

The Wildcats' depth and the Bulldogs’ rotation issues are why I’m playing on Arizona as my 10* Game of the Week.

I am playing on TULSA. I believe the Golden Hurricane are undervalued in this spot tonight and we can thank an incredibly tough schedule to date for that. 
Tulsa faced undefeated Wichita State and Oklahoma State in its last two games, both losses as underdogs, and Auburn before that.  I believe they enter this game a little more battle-tested than Creighton, who is still feeling its way through the early season. Creighton returns only one starter from its most successful senior class in school history, including the loss of three-time All-American Doug McDermott. 
Tulsa has lost the last four meetings with the Bluejays, including each of the last three years which I believe will only fuel the Hurricane’s fire tonight. They did manage to cover in each of the last two years against Creighton and I feel defense and home court will help them win and cover the small spread tonight. 
Tulsa is holding opponents to 58.7 points per game this season and allowing them to shoot at just 39.5 percent on field goals. The Golden Hurricane are also 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games on home court and have won their two home games this season by an average of 18.5 points. 10* Tulsa - Personal Favorite  

I’m playing on the UTEP Miners as my 10* End of Month Blowout Sunday. The Miners battle the Washington Huskies in a showdown between undefeated programs in the final of the Wooden Legacy in Anaheim.

UTEP has already added two big non-conference wins to its NCAA resume, with victories over Xavier and Princeton in this tournament. The Miners also knocked off the Huskies’ rival, Washington State, in their opening game of the year. UTEP won’t be intimidated by this major conference opponent Sunday in California.

Washington’s 5-0 mark to start the schedule doesn’t boast many big-name opponents. The Huskies knocked off Long Beach State and San Jose State to grab a spot in the championship game and have yet to play a member of a major conference. Washington has puffed up its early-season stats against this weak slate of games and collides with a tested UTEP team still trying to prove its place in the rankings.

The Miners are an aggressive team that gets to the paint, draws fouls and crashes the boards. UTEP averages 16.8 free throws per game, drawing 21.2 fouls an outing. On the glass, the Miners pulled down 38.5 rebounds a night – 11 of those on the offensive end. They don’t give back much in return, allowing an average of only seven offensive boards.

The Miners’ impressive non-conference calendar and their ability to get to the line and control the boards is why I’m playing on UTEP as my 10* End of Month Blowout.

I’m playing on the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels as my 10* Game of the Week Saturday. The Rebels host the Albany Great Danes at the Thomas & Mack Center Saturday, back home after a showing in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic tournament in New York.

UNLV split games in Brooklyn, losing by 11 to Stanford then upending Temple in the consolation final. The Runnin’ Rebels are struggling to score, failing to net more than 60 points in their first four games of the season. Head coach Dave Rice is looking to his team’s lockdown defense to create easy offense, with fastbreak points off turnovers.

Albany escapes the chilly New York weather for a trip to the desert. The Great Danes have been in Las Vegas since Thursday, spending the holiday together while also experiencing the sights and sounds of Sin City. Las Vegas is a tough place to stay focused for even the savviest programs.

The Great Danes aren’t a scoring threat and should have a tough time with the Rebels defense, which is allowing opponents to shoot just 33.9 percent from the field. Albany has puffed up its offensive numbers against some weaker foes the last two games but runs into UNLV 6-foot-11 shot swatter Christian Wood, who had four blocks in the win over Temple along with 18 points and 13 rebounds. The Great Danes only go as big as 6-foot-8 in their starting frontcourt.

The Runnin’ Rebels defense and an Albany team a long way from home is why I’m playing on UNLV as my 10* Game of the Week.