Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on Colorado and Alabama to finish UNDER the total. Colorado is a high-scoring team and it comes in on a run of five consecutive games which have gone 'over' the total. As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to post a very high O/U number. I believe that it will prove to be too high.

For all their recent offensive fireworks, note the Buffaloes have seen UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs of three or fewer points. During the same stretch, the UNDER was 5-2 when they played with five or six day's rest in between games.

The Buffaloes have been putting up big points against some relatively solid defenses. However, this will arguably by far the stingiest one they'll have seen. Alabama allowed the fewest points per game in the entire SEC, less than teams like Kentucky and Florida. In fact, opposing teams are managing a mere 59.2% of their shots against Alabama, hitting only 38.2% of their shots.

For the season, Crimson Tide games are averaging just 126.5 combined points. Note that the UNDER is a profitable 8-2 the last 10 times that Alabama was a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points.

Alabama has played 12 straight games which have finished with 143 or fewer combined points. In fact, 25 of its last 26 games have finished with 143 or less. I expect this one to do the same, staying beneath the generously high number. *10

I'm playing on Kentucky and UNC to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their last game finish below the total. I believe that will prove to be a sign of things to come.

I didn't play the Tar Heels game, but watched it stay below the total by a half a dozen points. North Carolina held Marquette, the highest scoring team in the entire Big East, to 63 points on 36.5% shooting. Pretty impressive considering that the Golden Eagles entered that game averaging 75.5 points and hitting 46.8% of their shots.

Kentucky's defensive performance was arguably even better - although I may be biased, as I had the "under." Facing the #1 seed, Ohio State, the Wildcats gave up a mere 60 points. The Buckeyes would shoot just 32.8% from the field. That game stayed below the total by double-digits.

Here's an excerpt of what I said about the Kentucky defense, in my analysis of the Ohio State game:

"...The Wildcats have "quietly" also been playing excellent defense. They're allowing just 63.6 points per game on the season, holding opposing teams to only 39.3% from the field. They've been even better lately. Since starting the SEC tournament, they're allowing only 59.6 points per game. They've now held seven straight opponents to 66 or fewer points. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 5-1-1 in those games. Note that all seven games finished with 141 or fewer points - and that they averaged only 128.7.

It should also be noted that the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 82-53-3 the last 138 times that the Wildcats played a game with an O/U line in the 140s..."

This time, its the Tar Heels who are in the underdog role. That's noteworthy as we find the UNDER at 15-6 the last 21 times that UNC was an underdog, including 4-1 the last five.

As you may recall, these teams faced each other during the regular season, on 12/4. That game went 'over' the total by half a point, finishing with 148 points - a 75-73 North Carolina victory. That game started off very high-scoring, as the teams combined for 88 points in the first half. The defenses got going in the second half though, as only 66 points were scored. With both teams off stellar defensive performances, I expect this one to more closely resemble the second half of that game than the first and the UNDER to improve to 13-6 the last 19 times that Kentucky attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. *10

I'm playing on Arizona and UConn to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams are off high-scoring games. Those results have worked in our favor, as we're now getting a very high O/U number to work with. I believe that it will prove to be too high.

Even with the big score vs. Duke, the Wildcats have still seen six of their last 10 games finish below the total. They've also still seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-1 the last seven times that they were listed as underdogs.

While not as stingy as some UConn teams of the past, the Huskies are still very capable defensively. They're allowing a respectable 65.8 points per game overall. However, they've stepped up the defense lately. In their three NCAA tournament games, they're allowing only 59 points per game, keeping each opponent to 42% or less from the field.

Prior to the San Diego State game, which still only finished with 141 points, the Huskies had seen three straight games stay below the total. Each game produced 135 or fewer combined points.

With an O/U line in the mid 140s, note that UConn has seen the UNDER go a highly lucrative 22-11 the last 33 times that they played a game with a total in the 140s, including 7-4 their last 11 in that situation.

As long as we can avoid OT, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting with the UNDER moving to 7-4 when the Huskies have played with one or less day's rest in between games. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. I didn't play against Butler once during last year's magical tournament run. I did successfully play on the Bulldogs in each game that they covered thougzh, save for the final game against Duke, when I stayed off them and successfully played on the "under" instead. The Bulldogs only failed to cover one game in last year's tournament (3/20 vs. Murray State when they won by 2 as -4.5 point favorites) and that was the one I stayed off them for. This season, I've been correct on all three of their games, playing on them against Pittsburgh and on the "under" in each of their other two games. In other words, they've treated me quite well and I'm also well aware of what an excellent "tournament team" they've been. All good things must come to an end though and I feel that the Bulldogs 2011 will come to an end here.

Playing in a far more difficult conference, the Gators had more victories than the Bulldogs this season. They scored an identical number of points per game (72.1) and allowed even less (63.1 compared to 64.2) than the Bulldogs. The Gators hit a higher percentage of their shots (46.6% to 44.5%) while also holding opponents to a lower-shooting percentage. While the difference in the numbers isn't that great, the difference in level of competition was.

While Florida was facing the likes of Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas in the SEC, Butler was taking on teams like Cleveland State, Valparaiso, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wright State in the Horizon.

The Bulldogs did play a few tough non-conference opponents, Duke, Louisville, Florida State and Xavier. Three of those resulted in losses though, two by double-digits.

While the Bulldogs lost at Xavier, the Gators went into Xavier and beat those same Musketeers. Both teams beat Florida State, but the Gators win came on the road while the Bulldogs beat them on a neutral court.

As good as the Bulldogs have been in recent weeks, I still don't believe that they're as talented as last year's team. I look for it to finally catch up to them here as the Gators prove to be the more complete team and improve to 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they were favored by four or fewer points. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. *10 As you're probably aware, neither of these teams was expected to make it this far. The Rams have been the bigger surprise and have been arguably more impressive in the tournament thus far, at least on the offensive side of the ball. That said, I feel that the Seminoles are favored for good reason and that this will prove to be a good matchup for them.

As impressive as the Rams were last time out, keep in mind that they're still only 11-14 ATS against winning teams. They're also only 7-11 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game.

Of course, the Seminoles boast one of the stingiest defenses in the country. They're allowing a mere 61.7 points per game. Additionally, opposing teams hit just 36.1% of their shots against the 'Noles.

Check out Florida State's last three games. The Seminoles held Notre Dame to 57 points on 31.7% shooting. Prior to that, they held Texas A&M to 50 points on 31.4% shooting. Before that, they limited Virginia Tech to 52 points on 31.5% shooting.

While the defense has been outstanding, the Florida State offense got a major boast last week when Chris Singleton recently returned from injury, after missing five weeks. He is the Seminoles best player, leading the team in both scoring and rebounding. While he didn't play/do much in the first two games, he's getting healthier by the day and he should be able to contribute more this evening.

The Seminoles are far more "battle-tested" than the Rams. Not only do they play all the very tough teams in the ACC (they beat teams like Duke, Clemson, Boston College and Miami and came within two points of beating UNC and V-Tech) but they also have faced the likes of non-conference teams like Florida, Butler and Ohio State, all of which are still in the tournament.

On the other hand, VCU plays in a much "softer" conference and their toughest non-conference games, prior to this tournament, were arguably vs. Richmond and Tennessee. Solid teams - but not in the class of Ohio State or Florida. Note that the Rams were 0-2 SU/ATS in those games.

In the end, I look for the Florida State's defense to again be the difference as the Seminoles advance to the next round and improve to 6-0 ATS along the way. *10

I'm playing on Kentucky and Ohio State to finish UNDER the total. Most know that these teams can both score points. Each team averages in the 70s. Some may not be quite aware of how good the defenses are though.

Ok, most know the Buckeyes play excellent defense. After all, they're from the Big Ten and they've been doing it for years. This season, Ohio State allowed an average of only 59.6 points per game. That number dips to 58.8 over the Buckeyes' last five games, dating back to the start of the Big-Ten tournament. During that stretch, opposing teams hit only 38.4% of their shots and averaged a mere 24 points by halftime. Not surprisingly, three of those five games stayed below the total. Looking back a bit further finds that the Buckeyes have now held eight straight opponents to 66 or fewer points.

The Wildcats have "quietly" also been playing excellent defense. They're allowing just 63.6 points per game on the season, holding opposing teams to only 39.3% from the field. They've been even better lately. Since starting the SEC tournament, they're allowing only 59.6 points per game. They've now held seven straight opponents to 66 or fewer points. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 5-1-1 in those games. Note that all seven games finished with 141 or fewer points - and that they averaged only 128.7.

It should also be noted that the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 82-53-3 the last 138 times that the Wildcats played a game with an O/U line in the 140s.

Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, as the UNDER improves to 5-2 the last seven times that the Buckeyes played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. *10

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Huskies almost always have a strong team and that's been proven to be the case again this season. Off an impressive win vs. Cincinnati last round, many will probably expect them to have their way with San Diego State, a lesser known team from a lesser conference. These Aztecs are a lot better than many people realize though and I expect them to be the team which finds a way to advance.

The Aztecs only lost two games this entire season. Both losses came vs. BYU and they avenged those losses by crushing the Cougars in the Mountain West Tournament. In other words, this is a team which knows how to win and is used to doing so.

Naturally, the Aztecs' conference schedule wasn't as tough as U'Conn's schedule. However, they still did have to take on the likes of BYU and UNLV. They were also undefeated in non-conference play, earning victories over the likes of Gonzaga and St. Mary's.

While both teams are currently rolling, keep in mind that the Huskies have lost seven games since 1/29. In other words, they're hardly "undefeatable."

As for the "mighty" Big East, note that the Mountain West still has just as many teams playing in the Sweet 16 - and that the two Big East teams which are left, both beat other Big East teams last round to get here.

Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and Syracuse all finished with better records than Uconn and all three are gone. Other teams like Louisville, West Virginia, St. John's, Villanova and Cincy have all been knocked out. In other words, the Big East may not be quite as "mighty" as most thought - certainly, not "undefeatable."

I like that the Aztecs "survived" a close game (OT) last round. Not only has it worked in our favor in terms of line value, but I feel the recent "close game experience" will serve them well here.

Additionally, I believe that the fact that the game is being played at the Honda Center, in Anaheim, figures to be provide the Aztecs with a solid edge. I look for them to show the nation that they're "the real deal" and that their 34-2 record was no fluke. *10

I'm playing on DUQUESNE. Playing at home and hailing from the "bigger name" conference, Oregon is a "popular" pick here. As a result, the Ducks are now slight favorites. However, I believe that the Dukes will prove to be the better team. Note that while the Dukes are now a respectable 19-12, the Ducks are still only 17-17 on the season. Note that Oregon is a terrible 22-41 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record, the past few seasons.

The Dukes saw five players score in double-digits in their first round blowout of Montana, shooting an impressive 54% from the field. On the other hand, the Ducks only shot 41% from the field in their win over Weber State.

For the season, the Dukes outscored opponents by a 78 to 67.7 margin. Conversely, Oregon only outscored teams by a 69.5 to 69 count.

Yes, the Ducks have homecourt advantage. The Dukes were a profitable 8-4 ATS in road lined games though, while the Ducks were only 8-11 ATS in home lined games. The Dukes are 6-2 ATS in non-conf. lined games and 8-4 ATS after having scored 80 or more in their previous game.

The Dukes are a team that won 11 in a row earlier this year. They "got back on track" in the win vs. Montana and I look for them to build momentum from that win as they "shock" their hosts and make it two in a row here. *10

I'm playing on MARQUETTE. I had the Golden Eagles in their opening round "upset" of Xavier. I believe that they're more than capable of delivering another "shocker" here today.

Here's an excerpt from my opening play on on Marquette, as its still relevant today:

"Xavier hasn't had to contend with many teams with the offensive firepower that the Golden Eagles bring to the table. The Golden Eagles are athletic and can score with the best of them. They average better than 76 points per game and make a healthy 46.8% of their shots. Those offensive stats are superior to the Musketeers' offensive numbers.

Note that the Musketeers were destroyed by 20 points vs. Cincinnati, the lone Big East opponent they faced this season. That was their worst loss of the season - yet, that's the type of competition that Marquette sees regularly.

Marquette has beaten the likes of UConn, Notre Dame, Syracuse while sweeping West Virginia. With Marquette now "getting points," note that the Golden Eagles also had 1-point losses vs. Louisville and Vanderbilt.

The Golden Eagles are an outstanding 98-59 ATS the last 157 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a profitable 20-9 ATS mark the past few seasons..."

Of course, the Golden Eagles are now getting points again and now they're facing a familiar opponent, one which they're 1-0 against on the season.

True, Syracuse has plenty of talent - and is off an easy win in the first round. However, that was against a fairly 'easy' opponent and the Orange are far from unbeatable. In addition to having lost vs. UConn in the Big East tournament, note that the Orange lost six of seven at one point this season.

Even with the cover in the opening rd, the Orange were still 11-14 ATS when laying points.

Since 2009, all three meetings between these teams have been decided by seven or fewer points, with the Golden Eagles covering the spread in each of the last two. I expect another close one with Marquette earning at least another cover. *10

I'm playing on PURDUE. Give the Rams credit for making it this far. Not only did they beat USC but they followed it up by blowing out Georgetown. Clearly, they're a capable team, one which is currently playing with some confidence. That said, USC simply wasn't that good a team and Georgetown was struggling. (The Hoyas finished their season on a 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS run.) Today, however, the Rams will be matched up against a powerful team, one which has been playing well for many weeks and which is off a confidence-building blowout win in the first round.

Also, keep in mind that the Rams were just 3-5 SU (2-6 ATS) their previous eight games, prior to this tournament. Note that a couple of those losses came by double-digits, too.

Yes, Purdue lost a couple before entering the tournament. The Boilermakers will still 26-7 on the season though, including 8-2 their last 10. Note that ALL eight of those victories came by a minimum of eight points, including a 22-point win in the first round and a 13-point win over Ohio State. Unlike Georgetown, this team should have plenty of confidence.

Having played the "play in game" may have given the Rams an early advantage over Georgetown. They had a win under their belts. In addition to being "warmed up," they were no longer "nervous." In addition to being on a losing streak, the Hoyas hadn't played in nine days. Now, however, the Rams will be playing their third game already and they'll face a Purdue team that is brimming with confidence and loaded with talent.

These teams have contrasting styles and the team that can dictate the tempo should have an advantage. I believe the well-coached Boilermakers will be fully ready. Coach Painter was quoted as saying: "Any time somebody presses you, you've got to be able to attack when it's there and be under control and take good shots. When it's not there, be able to run half-court offense. But that is the theme of a pressing team. They're trying to get you to get at a speed you're not used to. You've got to play fast but under control."

With the first round cover, the Boilermakers are now a profitable 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were favored by greater than eight points. With stars JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore leading the way, I expect another double-digit victory. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Tar Heels have the "bigger name" and they'll get to play this game in front of a "Tar Heel-friendly crowd" in Charlotte. I believe this Washington team is better than people realize though and I expect them to show it on Sunday afternoon.

The Huskies have played (and won) a number of close games lately. They beat rival Washington State by two points in the opening round of the Pac-10 Tournament. After blowing out Oregon in the next round, they beat Arizona in OT, at the buzzer. Then, in the first round of this tournament, they beat Georgia by three. I feel that recent "close game experience" will serve the Huskies well here.

The Tar Heels won big in the first round - yet, they still didn't cover. They're now 1-4-1 ATS their last six.

"Surviving" a close game in the first round can often be helpful in covering the spread in the second round against a team that won its first round game in blowout fashion. Butler comes to mind as a recent example. The Bulldogs won at the buzzer in the first round - Pittsburgh blew out its first round opponent. Yet, Butler beat them when the two faced off in the second round.

Including the win vs. Arizona, the Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs. I expect them to improve on those stats here and in a game that I expect to come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points that I can get. *10

I'm playing on BYU. Off an impressive win over a Big East opponent and with a recent tradition of success, Gonzaga is favored here. I expect BYU to "shock" the Bulldogs here though and for the Cougars to be the team which advances to the next round.

As you probably know, the Cougars have a "superstar" player in Jimmer Fredette. All Fredette did was lead the nation in scoring at 28.6 points per game, scoring more than 1000 of them on the season. ("The Jimmer" had 32 in the opening round.)

Teams led by a single superstar don't often win the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars are more than just Fredette though - and we're not asking them to win the entire title here - merely to beat Gonzaga and to advance to the next round. We've seen plenty of teams led by a single superstar advance to the Sweet 16 - Gonzaga's Adam Morrison led team being one of them.

BYU was outstanding away from home this season, winning 17 of 20 games. This is a team with wins over the likes of Arizona, UNLV and a pair of wins against San Diego State. When matched up against St. Mary's (a WCC team which finished with an equal 25-9 record as Gonzaga) the Cougars came away with the victory.

The Cougars are 15-1 SU their last 16 non-conference games. With Fredette "doing his thing," I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on BUTLER. The Bulldogs are at their best when every one is writing them off. They were (slight) underdogs in their opening game but "found a way" to get it done. With that result, they're now 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 times that they were listed as underdogs, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six. Eleven of those 15 ATS wins also resulted in outright victories. Today's opponent is certainly a powerful and talented one. However, I don't believe that Butler, which is "peaking" at the right time, will be intimidated.

While they didn't dominate during the regular season the way that they did last year, the Bulldogs are currently playing their best basketball. Indeed, they're now a perfect 10-0 their last 10 games.

They did lose a couple of keys from last year's team - but obviously the cupboard was hardly left bare. This is a very well-coached Butler team and last year's tournament and "big game" experience has served them well in recent weeks. They're now 6-0 SU/ATS in "tournament play."

With a #1 seed, Pittsburgh is clearly "loaded." That doesn't mean that the Panthers blow everyone out though. In fact, they've been playing a large number of close games for some time now. Prior to the their blowout win in round #1, the Panthers had seen 10 of their previous 11 games decided by 13 or fewer points. Seven of those games were decided by five or fewer points.

Unlike the Bulldogs, the Panthers haven't been that profitable in tournament play, these past few seasons. In fact, they're just 7-11 ATS their last 18 tournament games, 2-5 ATS in the NCAA tournament.

Butler has really been playing well defensively of late. The Bulldogs have allowed less than 70 points in all 10 games during the win streak. Over that stretch, opposing teams have averaged only 58 points. That type of defense makes every possession important and makes getting this many points very attractive. The Bulldogs were 14-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. I look for them to take the Panthers down to the wire and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on VCU and Georgetown to finish UNDER the total. The Rams used a dominant defensive performance to get past USC in the "play in" round. They limited the Trojans to only 46 points and 39.5% field goal shooting. USC hit only 11% of its 3-point shots. Virginia Commonwealth didn't exactly "light it up" offensively either. The Rams hit only 33.7% of their shots and scored just 59 points. Not surprisingly, that game stayed below the total by 20+ points. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

The Rams have now seen the UNDER go 6-2 their last eight games. They've also seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs.

The Hoyas have long been a profitable "under" team, when in the role of the favorite. In fact, excluding "pushes" and games that didn't have a total, the UNDER is a lucrative 103-65 the last 168 times that Georgetown was laying points. More recently, the Hoyas have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were in the favorite role.

Note that the Hoyas have seen the UNDER go 10-4 their last 14 NCAA tournament games.

While they gave up 79 points vs. UConn in their last game on 3/9, the Hoyas have still held five of their last eight opponents to 60 or fewer points. Looking back a bit further and we find that they've allowed less than 70 points in nine of their last 13 games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 9-4 in those games. The previous three times, after allowing more than 70 points, the Hoyas responded by allowing 52, 56, and 55 points. All three of those games stayed comfortably below the total. I expect this one to also fall below the number with the UNDER improving to 12-4 the last 16 times that Georgetown played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 130 to 134.5 range. *10

I'm playing on MARQUETTE. The Golden Eagles aren't getting a whole lot of respect here and most seem to expect an Xavier victory. While I respect Xavier, I feel Marquette will prove its the better team.

Xavier enters with 24 wins. Marquette has 20. Those win totals are among the biggest reasons that Xavier is favored. However, one could easily argue that Marquette's 20 wins were more impressive than the Musketeers' 24. Obviously, the Big East has far more quality and/or elite teams than the A-10. Also, Marquette played arguably the tougher non-conf. schedule. Both teams played Gonzaga - both lost. The Golden Eagles also played the likes of Duke, Wisconsin and Vanderbilt though - Xavier faced Florida, Iowa and Cincy.

Xavier hasn't had to contend with many teams with the offensive firepower that the Golden Eagles bring to the table. The Golden Eagles are athletic and can score with the best of them. They average better than 76 points per game and make a healthy 46.8% of their shots. Those offensive stats are superior to the Musketeers' offensive numbers.

Note that the Musketeers were destroyed by 20 points vs. Cincinnati, the lone Big East opponent they faced this season. That was their worst loss of the season - yet, that's the type of competition that Marquette sees regularly.

Marquette has beaten the likes of UConn, Notre Dame, Syracuse while sweeping West Virginia. With Marquette now "getting points," note that the Golden Eagles also had 1-point losses vs. Louisville and Vanderbilt.

The Golden Eagles are an outstanding 98-59 ATS the last 157 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a profitable 20-9 ATS mark the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats, scoring the minor upset along the way. *10

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats struggled down the stretch and therefore aren't getting much respect. This is a dangerous and talented team though, one with something to prove. I expect them to rise to the occasion and to advance to the next round.

Yes, George Mason was a far more profitable team this season and comes in with a much better record. Obviously, there's a massive difference in the quality of opposition though. The Patriots "split" games with Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth, the two other top teams in their conference. Outside of those games, there next two toughest games were vs. Dayton and Duquesne. Clearly, the Patriots aren't "battle tested" in the way that Villanova is.

While they've got talent, the Patriots lack the type of dominant inside game that often gave the Wildcats problems in Big East play.

While a long layoff can sometimes cause some rust, I feel that it will be helpful for Villanova. The Wildcats were struggling and the time off should allow them to "get their heads right" while also becoming fully healthy. Note that Villanova is 18-5 SU the last 23 times that it played with seven or more day's rest in between games, including 4-0 its last four in that situation.

Note that the Wildcats are 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS the last 22 times that played in a first round tournament game. During the same stretch, the Patriots were 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS when playing in a first round tournament game.

Corey Fisher spoke of the Wildcats' mindset: "Stay positive. Can't get down on yourself. Things will turn. Just like our (2009) Final 4 team. We lost five games in a row. Not comparing us to that team, but we had doubters, too. If we go out and make a run, all the doubters will become fans. Just got to continue to play." I expect Fisher and co. to "win over some doubters" this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on ST. John's. We don't normally find a West Coast Conference team getting "more respect" and having more NCAA tournament experience than a team from the Big East. Of course, Gonzaga isn't a "normal" West Coast Conference team - as the Bulldogs have made a habit of getting here. Meanwhile, St. John's still doesn't getting get much recognition, despite a truly outstanding season. I believe the Red Storm are (slight) favorites for good reason though and I look for them to step up and advance to the next round.

Gonzaga enters the tournament playing well and the Bulldogs should have an advantage in the paint. The Red Storm have been playing well for many weeks though and I believe they'll have the advantage in the backcourt. Guard Dwight Hardy is arguably the best player on the floor.

Yes, Gonzaga has been here often. The Bulldogs are also only 1-4 ATS their last five NCAA tournament games though and this year's team arguably isn't as good as some of their previous editions.

True, the Red Storm are missing DJ Kennedy. Admittedly, his loss is significant. However, its not something that can't be recovered from. Keep in mind that his replacement (Sean Evans) is a senior that started each of the last two seasons.

Many still don't want to believe but the Red Storm have been getting it done for weeks. Since 1/30, when it crushed Duke, St. John's has beaten the likes of UConn, Cincy, Marquette, Pittsburgh and Villanova - to name just a few. Earlier in the season, the Red Storm knocked off the likes of West Virginia, Georgetown and Notre Dame. In other words, they won't be "intimidated" by "big bad Gonzaga."

The Red Storm are 4-1 SU their last five games played on a neutral court, going 9-3 their last 12. I expect the rest of the Red Storm players to rally around Kennedy's injury and for their strong guard play to help lead them to the second round. *10

I'm playing on PRINCETON. Kentucky is a "big name" program and its just coming off a "high profile" blowout victory in the SEC tournament championship game. That's caused what would have already been a high line to be even a little higher. I believe that it will prove to be too high.

While always talented, keep in mind that this is still a relatively young Kentucky team. The recent success could easily have the young Wildcats "patting themselves on the back" a bit, while looking past their lightly regarded first round opponent.

That will prove costly though, as I believe Princeton is better than many realize. The Tigers are a far more experienced team and they're thrilled to be back in the tournament, after a 6-year absence.

As Princeton coach Sydney Johnson noted: "It's our moment against Kentucky and we're not going to spoil it. I can't tell you if we're going to be perfect out there ... but we're not going to waste this opportunity. I won't allow them to do that."

The Tigers, once "famous" for "scaring" elite teams, are 19-10-1 ATS the last 30 times that they were listed as underdogs, including 5-2 ATS their last seven. They're 16-9 ATS their last 25 lined games against teams with a winning record.

Once known for slowing down the pace, the Princeton offense can be difficult to prepare for. This team is far more athletic than Princeton teams of the past, prompting Kentucky coach Calipari to note: "It's Princeton on steroids..."

The Wildcats were only 12-13-1 ATS when laying points and that includes a 0-1 ATS mark as a neutral court favorite in the -12.5 to -15 range. They're 12-18 ATS the past few seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. *10

I'm playing on Butler and Old Dominion to finish UNDER the total. The Bulldogs aren't going to match last season's march to the championship game. However, this is still a team which is very capable defensively, as demonstrated in the Horizon League Championship game.

In that game, the Bulldogs limited Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a team which averages greater than 73 points, to a mere 44 points and 30% shooting. Including that result, the Bulldogs have seen five of their last six games stay below the total.

The Bulldogs have also seen the UNDER go 12-8 their last 20 tournament games, including 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament.

Old Dominion is also extremely stingy. In fact, the Monarchs are allowing only 58.3 points per game on the season, holding opposing teams to a 40.4% mark from the field.

The Monarchs have seen the UNDER go 9-5 in neutral court games the past few seasons, including a 7-4 UNDER mark, when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 120s. That also includes a 2-1 UNDER mark when they've been listed as neutral court underdogs of three or fewer points.

The UNDER is 4-2 in the Monarchs' last six first round tournament games and I look for this one to be a "defensive battle" the entire way. *10

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Huskers are very capable on their home floor. They're not the same team away from Lincoln though. They were only 2-10 on the road this season, averaging a mere 62.6 points in those games. The Shockers, who finished at an impressive 24-8 overall, were 12-4 at home. They oustscored opponents by a 73.7 to 60.9 margin here.

Looking back further finds Nebraska at 6-25 its last 31 road games. During that stretch, Wichita State was 43-9 at home.

Both teams are off a loss in their conference tournament - the reason they're here. Note that Nebraska is only 11-21 the past few seasons, when coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, Wichita State was 16-6 when coming off a conference loss, going 4-0 (3-1 AT) in that situation this season.

Over the past few seasons, the Huskers have gone 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) in their tournament games. During that stretch, the Shockers were 12-6 ATS in tourament play.

Yes, the Shockers are disappointed with themselves that they didn't make it to the NCAA Tournament. However, they're a team loaded with seniors and juniors and I don't expect them to hang their heads about it. They've had plenty of time to "get over" the fact that they're in the NIT and I look for them to respond with their very best effort. Playing at home against a Nebraska team that struggles on the road, I look for that to be enough to lead to the win and cover. *10

I'm playing on Clemson and UAB to finish UNDER the total. These teams were both involved in very high scoring games last time out. UAB lost 75-70 vs. East Carolina. Clemson lost 92-87 vs. North Carolina. Given those scores, one might wonder why this O/U line is so low. However, those results were deceiving. That's because both games went to OT. The Blazers' game had 31 points score in OT. Take them away and combined score was only 114, a game that would have stayed below the total by double-digits. (Talk about a "bad beat" for under bettors.) The Tigers' game was still relatively high-scoring, even without the 33 points which were score in OT. It would have finished with 146. However, keep in mind that was against a high-scoring North Carolina team.

Don't be misled by the fact that the Tigers gave up so many points against the Tar Heels. This is a Clemson team which is capable of playing very stingy defense. In fact, prior to the North Carolina loss, note that the Tigers had held four of their previous five opponents to 60 or fewer points. During that stretch, the only team to score more than 60 was Duke - and the Tigers still held the Blue Devils to 70 - not so bad when considering Duke averages greater than 80 per game.

Going back further and we find that, prior to the UNC game, the Tigers had held 12 straight opponents to 70 or fewer points. Eight of those teams finished with 60 or less. Pretty good when considering that those were all ACC teams.

UAB is also very capable defensively. Prior to the OT loss vs. East Carolina in the CUSA tournament, the Blazers had held the very same Pirates to only 48 points. They closed out the regular season by holding eight straight opponents to less than 80 points. Those eight teams averaged only 55.2 points per game.

The Blazers have seen the UNDER go 12-4 the last 16 times that they were coming off a conference loss. That includes a PERFECT 4-0 UNDER mark their last four in that situation.

The Tigers have seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight non-conference games which had a total. They've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 7-2 the last nine times that they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. I expect a low-scoring affair with the UNDER improving to 4-0 in Clemson's last four against teams from Conf-USA. *10

I'm playing on CHARLESTON. Dayton hails from the bigger conference and is arguably the "bigger name" in this contest. However, this is a tough spot for the Flyers and I believe that the Cougars are favored for good reason. Not only did the Flyers come up just short in their bid for the NCAA Tournament - but they're also fresh off three difficult games in three days. Even with a day off on Monday, they still figure to be rather exhausted here.

Like the Flyers, the Cougars also played three conference tournament games in three days. However, unlike the Flyers, they've had a full week off in between games.

In addition to having the schedule in their favor, the Cougars also have the venue in their favor. They're 12-1 SU at home - 7-3 ATS in home lined games. They outscored teams by a 80.5 to 64.5 point margin here.

The Cougars, 37-20 ATS the last 57 times they were off a conference loss, are 8-1 ATS their last nine first round tournament games. I expect them to be both "fresher" and "hungrier" and look for that to lead to a solid win and cover. *10

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. These teams met twice during the regular season. The Nittany Lions managed to keep things close in the first meeting, losing by only three at Ohio State, easily covering the massive (+17.5) number. However, the Buckeyes "outclassed" them in the rematch. Laying -6.5 at Penn State, the Buckeyes won by 21. They were up 15 by the break and never looked back. I expect them to "flex their muscles" and for them to deliver another dominant effort here.

The Buckeyes' domination in this series extends a lot further back than this season. Indeed, Ohio State is 18-1 the last 19 meetings, including 15-0 the last 15. Five of the Buckeyes' last six victories in the series came by a minimum of eight points, four of those coming by double-digits.

One could argue that this game is more important to the Nittany Lions. They're still trying to guarantee a spot in the Big Dance, while Ohio State should have a #1 seed locked up. This is a championship game though - and the Buckeyes don't want to "back their way in" to the NCAA tournament. Rather, I believe that they'll want to make a statement. They've had their "wake-up calls" the last couple of days, now its time to deliver a blowout.

After a number of close games, note that the Buckeyes closed out the reg. season by earning four consecutive double-digit victories.

Coach Matta said of his team: "We're going to prepare like it's the next game on the schedule because it is and the thing that I love about this team, that's sort of how they want it. It's another opportunity to play a game. That's how I've seen their minds work all year."

Note that the Nittany Lions will be playing their fourth game in four days, the Buckeyes will be playing their third in three, but had that fourth day off. That can be significant.

In addition to getting dominated by the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions are an ugly 0-12 all-time against #1 teams. I expect the "class difference" to be evident as the Buckeyes continue their domination in this series by delivering a double-digit victory. *10