Sports Picks & Predictions

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH over Maryland/Syracuse. Two of the nation’s leading teams in the early going are going head-to-head on Monday night and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. Maryland bounced back from its first loss of the year , beating New Mexico by 15 in its latest action, 80-65. The Terps feature a big time scorer in Anthony Cowan, who is averaging 15.3 PPG and who had 21 in the victory over the Lobos (note that Maryland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven when playing with one or less days rest.) Syracuse comes in off a win over Toledo and will have to get the job done without leading scorer Tyus Battle tonight, who left the victory over the Rockets with a sore back. Syracuse though has been getting production from others, including its two big men in Bourma Sidibe and Paschal Chukwu, both of whom are shooting better than 70 percent so far this year. With both teams pushing the pace, all signs point to a higher-scoring affair. Play the over.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on West Virginia. Both teams come into this one at 5-1. So far Missouri averages 83.4 PPG and gives up 66.2. Kassisus Robertson has averaged 13.7 points and 2.8 assists per game. It won’t be easy for WVU today obviously, as the Tigers have won four of their last six neutral site affairs. The Mountaineers have won five straight and average 88.7 PPG, while allowing 64.2. Jevon Carter averages 16.3 points and 5.8 assists per contest. WVU has also been sharp in neutal site games, going 7-3 in its last ten such cases. Missouri did have difficulty against Utah’s pressure defense earlier in the year, which doesn’t bode well facing the Mountaineers, a team which just held UCF to 45 points. Lay the points, WVU rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. One of these teams has been overacheiving, while the other has been underacheiving. EMU comes into this one at 4-0, most recently taking care of Howard. Suffice it to say, off four straight wins, I think the Eagles are primed for a letdown here. Indiana is 3-2, dropping its first two games, before then beating Howard, USF and Arkansas State. EMU hasn’t fared well in this spot for bettors over the years, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins. Indiana got out to the slow start, but the team has completely turned its performance around. I don’t foresee a letdown from the home side at Assembly Hall. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll.

10* BEST BET on George Washington. This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational. Xavier comes in of a 96-60 win over Hampton, while George Washington enters off a 67-65 loss to Rider on Monday. Xavier is 4-0, averaging 94.5 points and allowing just 63.5 to start the young season. The Colonials had an extremely poor shooting night against the Rams, going 44 percent from the floor and only 4 of 18 from range, and they still almost pulled off the victory. So far George Washington has averaged 70 points, while conceding 71. The Colonials have had their early difficulties, but the team features depth and it’s been competitive. George Washington’s defensive play has also been decent. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but I do think the Colonials can catch the Musketeers a little complacent after their blazing start to the 2017/18 campaign in this neutral court affair. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Colonials.

8* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Virginia. Vanderbilt lost 93-89 in OT to USC on the 19th and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here as I think the Commodores come in “hung over” from that disappointing setback. Conversely, the Cavs come in off a momentum/confidence building 73-53 win over Monmouth on Sunday and I look for them to carry it over here. Vanderbilt actually had a ten-point lead mid way through the second half before completely falling apart and then losing in the extra period (14 costly turnovers ended up being the difference for Vanderbilt in the end in that one.) The Cavs are 4-0 thanks in large part to their depth. In their latest victory, freshman De’Andre Hunter came off the bench to score 23 points. Virginia has been suffocating teams with its defensive play as well, holding opponents to just 37.5 percent from the floor. Ultimately I believe that Virginia’s depth and superior defensive performance proves to be too much for Vanderbilt. Lay the points, Cavaliers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Indiana. This is the Hoosier Tip Off Classic, which the Hoosiers are hosting at Assembely Hall. Arkansas State comes in off a 92-78 win over Howard on Monday, while Indiana posted a 70-53 home victory over USF last time out. Over their first three games the Red Wolves are averaging 74 points and allowing 75. Indiana has averaged 73 PPG and allowed 76 over its first four. The Hoosiers looked a lot better against South Florida though, shooting 47 percent from the floor and I think the team carries that momentum over here (also held the Bulls to just 34 percent shooting.) Arkansas State is allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field, which is music to the ever improving Hoosiers ears. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Pacific. Pacific will be the “hungrier” team here, it’s 0-3, while the Falcons could be caught a little flat-footed as they’re 2-0 to open the 2017/18 campaign. Pacific most recently fell 89-74 at Nevada. Jahlil Tripp was a standout with 24 points and 14 boards. Air Force most recently got the better of Canisius 93-79. The Falcons were never really challenged in that one, but I believe they’ll have their hands full with the Tigers’ versatile swingman Tripp. Pacific has the talent and depth to win this one outright, but in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan. Two teams enter unbeaten, only one team will leave the same way. Michigan posted a 61-47 home win over Southern Mississippi in its latest action, while LSU enters off a 105-86 victory over lowly Samford. The Wolverines started slowly, but looked sharp in the second half against the Golden Eagles, shooting 48.9 percent from the floor, while holding Southern Miss to just 40 percent. So far Michigan has averaged 73 points and allowed 59.3 over its first three gams. LSU has averaged 102 points over its first two ames, but it’s allowed an average of 72.5. However as mentioned off the top, the competition has been weak and clearly the Tigers face a much stiffer test in the Wolverines. These teams have performed at entirely different ends of the spectrum in “neutral court” affairs, with LSU going just 1-4 ATS in its last five such cases, while Michigan has gone 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site contests. LSU’s inexperience and lack of overall defensive pressure turns out to be its downfall today. Lay the points, Wolverines roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Minnesota. The Western Carolina Catamounts opened the 2017/18 campaign with back-to-back losses, before finally scoring a victory over lowly Hiwassee College. Western Carolina though had 21 turnovers in that one and was also outshot 45.3 percent to 36.7 percent. Minnesota is rolling along at 3-0 to open the year, most recently hammering Niagara 107-81 on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers played swarming defense, holding the Purple Eagles to just 36.4 percent shooting, while countering with 53.8 percent themselves. I simply can’t see the Catamounts mustering any sort of offensive attack today and I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to waste this opportunity by “looking past” their opponent. This spread could in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. Lay the points, Minnesota rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on St. Joseph’s. Princeton has not looked sharp to open the year, sitting at 0-2 SU/ATS. The Tigers went 14-0 in league play last season, but so far their offense has stalled. Princeton most recently fell 65-56 at home to BYU, shooting a poor 37.7 percent form the floor. So far Princeton has averaged 75 points over the first two games. The Hawks rebounded from an opening season loss to down UIC 86-82 in OT on Monday. St. Joe’s went on to shoot 45 percent from the floor. The Hawks have looked a big shaky defensively, but the offense is firing on all cylinders, putting up 98 and 86 points over the first two games respectively. St. Joe’s feautres three players shooting over 50 percent in the early going, which doesn’t bode well for a Tigers’ team which struggled by shooting only 37.7 percent in its home opener. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Northeastern enters off an 83-49 win over lowly Wentworth, while the Cardinal will be out to atone for a 67-61 home loss to Eastern Washington on Tuesday. The Huskies haven’t really been tested yet as they’d barely manage to get by Boston University 65-59 in their opener, before then crushing div. II Wentworth 83-49. Overall Northeastern has some talent, like Devon Begley, who was the third overall scorer on last year’s team. Despite that though, note that the Huskies were picked to finish sixth in the ten man CAA conference (they were just 15-16 overall last year.) Stanford was favored by 16 points in its outright loss to Eastern Washington. Reid Travis had 20 points on 6 of 14 shooting. The Cardinal looked strong in their first two games, beating Cal Poly and Pacific, but just couldn’t get anything to fall against the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back here. The Huskies lack depth and they’re facing a much better team which comes in off an embarrassing effort. I’m expecting a beatdown. Lay the points, Stanford rolls.

10* GAME OF WEEK on Pacific. The UC Davis Aggies beat Northern Colorado 74-59 on Monday, outscoring the Bears 42-24 in the second half. The Tigers will be the hungrier team here though after their hard-fought 89-80 loss to Stanford in their opener. Pacific was able to post 49 points in the second half, which is impressive against the Cardinal and I look for the home side to carry that momentum over here. UC Davis does have talent, like Chima Moneke, who had 28 points in his team’s latest victory. But the Tigers also feature numerous weapons, including Mile Reynolds, who came off the bench in the loss to Stanford to chip in 20 points. The Tigers have gone toe to toe and blow for blow with the best in the country and nearly came out on top. UC Davis faces a stiff test today and I think it’ll stumble. Lay the points, Pacific rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Eastern Washington is 1-1. It’s yet to win on the road. So far it’s averaging 69 points and allowing 79. Clearly not a recipie for success. Bogdan Bliznyuk has been a standout, so far averaging 19 points and 5.5 boards. The road has not been kind to the Eagles though, who have lost five of their last seven away from friendly confines. The Cardinal are 2-0 and are so far averaging 83.5 points, while allowing 71. Reid Travis has been a beast, averaging 24.5 points and 3.5 assits per game. Stanford seems like a team on a mission this year after last season’s disappointment. Eastern Washington simply does not have the talent or depth to run with the surging Cardinal and in my opinion, this one definitely has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Stanford rolls.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh. Montanta comes in off a 72-60 win over lowly Whitworth. Ahmaad Rorie scored 21 points and dished out three assists, while Bobby Moorehead chipped in 14 points and nine boards. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five on the road, but they now face a hungry Pitt team which comes in off a tough 71-62 loss to Navy in its opener. Jared Wilson-Frame was a standout in the setback, pouring in 20 points, while Ryan Luther added 14 points and four assists. After the loss to Navy, I like the Panthers to bounce back at home here. Pitt has big expectations this year and it looked shaky overall in the loss to the Mids. But a game at home against the Grizzlies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion, as this is a favorable matchup for the Panthers across the board. Lay the points, Pittsburgh rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Stanford. Stanford comes in off a solid 78-62 win over Cal Poly on Friday and I expect it to carry over that momentum. Reid Travis was tremendous in that one, finishing with 26 points and 12 boards. The Cardinal looked great in trransition, outscoring the Mustangs 11-2 on second-chance points, led by Travis with six offensive boards. A tough season opener for Pacific, which endured a terrible 2016/17 and which bowed out in the second round of the conference tournament. Travis presents a matchup problem for the Tigers. This one has blowout written all over it. Cardinal roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Portland. It’s a revenge game for Portland after it fell 77-76 to Portland State last December 20th. PSU has a new coach in Barret Peery, who comes in after serving as an assistant at Santa Clara. The Vikings aren’t expected to do so well this year, picked to finish eighth in the Big Sky Preseason Coaches Poll. In all Portland State returns two starters and eight lettermen, while bringing in seven new faces. Braxton Tucker (16.8) and Deontae North (13.7) are standouts. In the Pilots final tune-up (76-70 loss to Eastern Washington), Phillipp Hartwich had 15 points and 13 boards. Portland is coached by ex Trail Blazer Terry Porter, whose nine player incoming class has been ranked among the top recruiting classes in the nation. I think Portland is the deeper, better coached team which has the clear “revenge factor” advantage working in its favor. Home floor can’t be overlooked either. Pilots roll.

I'm playing on Gonzaga/UNC to finish UNDER the total 10* MAIN EVENT. Both teams saw last game finish above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a generously high number here. I believe that it's going to prove to be too high. While UNC is obviously an explosive team, Gonzaga is better defensively than many realize. The Bulldogs have allowed an average of only 61.2 ppg (28.1 in the first half) on the season, opposing teams shooting only 36.5%. (More on that below.) The Bulldogs have been just as good defensively in the tournament too. Over their past five games, they're allowing an average of just 61.8 ppg, opponents shooting just 34.5 of their field goals. The Tar Heels, arguably also better defensively than advertised, have held opposing teams to just 40.7% field goal shooting their past five games.

Some might be surprised to learn that the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 this season, when the Tar Heels have faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. I'm expecting those stats to improve tonight. 

I'm playing on South Carolina and Gonzaga to finish UNDER the total 10* TOURNEY TOTAL OF YEAR. The Gamecocks are here on the strength of their defense. They allow 64.9 ppg while keeping opponents to a 39.8 field goal percentage. While the Bulldogs may be more known for their offense, they also know a thing or two about playing defense. In fact, they allow a mere 60.9 ppg, keeping opposing teams to a 36.5 fg percentage. They've elevated their defensive intensity recently, too. Over its past five games, Gonzaga is holding opponents to only 58.4 ppg and on just 34.3% shooting.

When the Gamecocks face an elite defensive team like Gonzaga, they tend to play low-scoring games. In fact, the UNDER is 4-0 this season, in games which had an O/U line, when the Gamecocks faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. (Their game against Vermont didn't have a total, but that was also low-scoring, a 68-50 final.)

The Bulldogs have seen the UNDER go 7-3 in all tournament games, 8-4 in all neutral site games. As for the Gamecocks, they've seen the UNDER go 22-9 the last 31 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark when playing on a neutral floor when the O/U line ranged from 135 to 139.5 range. With the UNDER also at 18-9 the last 27 times that the Gamecocks were listed as underdogs, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Florida/South Carolina to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. These teams are both capable of playing very stingy defense. We saw that when they faced each other in the first of two meetings this season. That game produced a mere 110 combined points. (The rematch was higher-scoring.) On the season, the Gators allow an average of 66.2 points per game. The Gamecocks allow an average of 64.8. South Carolina held Baylor to a mere 50 points last time out. Florida is only a couple of games removed from limiting Virginia to only 39. Note that the UNDER is 8-2 the last 10 times that the Gamecocks were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 22-7 when the Gamecocks were in that situation. Also, note that the UNDER is now 18-8 the last 26 times that the Gamecocks were listed as underdogs. With the UNDER also 4-1 the last five times that the Gators played with one or less day's worth of rest in between games, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BEST BET. Needless to say, Kansas is a very strong team. The Jayhawks have been extremely impressive, blowing out all three opponents that they faced. Teams rarely crush every opponent though and I expect them to get their first real test here. The Ducks are also a very good team, well-balanced, experienced and well-coached. They've also shown an ability to win "close games." They won their last two games by one point and three points. While that may not be as impressive as what Kansas has done, I expect that "close game experience" to serve them well here. After scoring 90 or more in all three games, Kansas can obviously score points with the best of them. That doesn't figure to phase the Ducks though. They're 25-12 ATS their last 37 against teams that score 77 or more points per game, 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven. With the Jayhawks only 5-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s, I'm taking the generous points.

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* GAME OF YEAR. As many of you are likely aware, my biggest play from the second round was on South Carolina over Duke. So, I'm certainly aware of what the Gamecocks have done thus far and respect them as a team. That said, they had a very big advantage in their first two games, as they were able to play in their home state. That's no longer the case, as they'll be facing Baylor at MSG. Having the support of the crowd was a huge help in beating Marquette and Duke. 

The Gamecocks defense is their strength. However, the Bears are every bit as good in that departement. The Gamecocks allow 65.2 ppg. The Bears allow only 63.5. Baylor's zone defense should match up very well against a South Carolina team which typically doesn't shoot well from beyond the arc. 

While the Gamecocks don't score as many points on the road as they do at home, the Bears score just as many points on the road.  South Carolina connects on 41.9% of its field goals on the road and overall, the Bears hit 47.7% of their shots on the road. While South Carolina is averaging 73.4 ppg on 40% shooting its past five games, Baylor is averaging 76.6 ppg its last five, connecting on a whopping 49.3% of its field goals. Indeed, the offense is currently clicking on all cylinders. 

With both Villanova and Duke out of the way, the Bears are the highest seed left in the East Region. Note that coach Scott Drew is now 9-2 against teams with a lower seed. The Bears are well-coached, athletic, experienced and tough on both sides of the ball. Expect them to punch their ticket to the Elite 8, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA 10* 2nd Rnd GAME OF YEAR. The Gamecocks aren't getting much respect here. However, their second half performance against Marquette was extremely impressive and gives them a ton of positive momentum. If you missed it, South Carolina was losing at halftime of that game. However, the Gamecocks delievered a dominant 54-33 second half performance. 

Marquette head coach Steve Wojciechowski had this to say of the Gamecocks: "I thought over the course of the game their physicality wore us down."

Allowing only 64.7 ppg, the Gamecocks are one of the better defensive teams in the country. When you combine hot shooting with that excellent defense, they're a much stronger team than many probably realize. Note that they were 7-1 SU this season, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. That includes a 4-0 SU record in 2017. 

In case, you haven't heard, the Gamecocks are getting to play these games in their own state, roughly 100 miles from their own campus. Essentially, that makes this very much like a home game for them. They'll absolutely have the crowd behind them. If that seems unusual, its because it is. The reason? The NCAA pulled its first-weekend games from Greensboro,  due to the state of North Carolina's controversial HB2 (House Bill 2) otherwise known as "The Public Facilities Privacy & Security Act." In fact, if not for HB2, or if had been rejected or repealed, Duke would be the team which would be getting to play in its home state. 

Instead, we've got a team which plays outstanding defense, coming in with positive momentum off its 55-point second half and playing in front of a supportive crowd. 

While they had some trouble outside their state at times, the Gamecocks lost only three games in the state of South Carolina this season AND none of those losses came by more than seven points. Expect them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* PERS FAV. These schools faced each other in November of last season. The Spartans (+4.5) scored the upset in that one. I believe the gap between the teams is significantly wider for Sunday's "rematch" though. While the Spartans have talent and are obviously well-coached, they're also young. Currently, in my opinion, this is not one of Izzo's stronger MSU teams. On the other hand, a recent loss to TCU notwithstanding, this is a very strong Kansas team. 

Off a 100-62 destruction of Cal-Davis, the Jayhawks were arguably as impressive as any team in the tournament in the opening round. While the Spartans also looked good in beating Miami, they've still lost three of their last five games. In fact, they've lost nine times since early January. Those losses came within the Big Ten. However, when matched up against elite non-conference competition, the Spartans also often struggled. They lost by 21 against Kentucky, by 15 against Baylor and by nine against Duke. Speaking of Kentucky, Baylor and Duke, Kansas beat all three of those teams. They even beat Baylor twice. 

The Spartans are 0-3 ATS their last three as neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Izzo may have gotten the better of Self in four of six meetings since Self came to Kansas, but Self has the superior side this time. The Jayhawks are 19-1 SU the last 20 times that they scored 80 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on BUTLER 10* PERS FAV. The Blue Raiders were certainly impressive in their opening round upset of Minnesota. However, I believe they're a little over-valued here, based partly on the fact that everyone remembers them from last year, when they upset Michigan State. I expect them to find things considerably more difficult against a tough Butler team.

While everyone seems to remember the Blue Raiders' upset of the Spartans, many seem to have forgotten what happened to them in the next round. In case you forgot, they got destroyed (75-50) by Syracuse. (While I didn't play a side in that game, I did cash a ticket on the 'under.') 

Like Syracuse proved to be last year,  I believe this is a very dangerous Butler team. When the Bulldogs are "on," they can beat any team in the country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs beat Villanova, TWICE. As impressive as MTSU's record was, they really didn't have a very difficult schedule. 

With their opening round victory, the Bulldogs are now 4-1 ATS in neutral court games. Going back further finds them at a profitable 71-34 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 105 lined neutral court games. That includes a 24-8 ATS mark in the "Big Dance," 5-0 ATS their last five. Look for Butler's games against the likes of Villanova to pay dividends here, the Bulldogs advancing and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DAYTON 10* BEST BET. Its not often that you find a #10 seed favored by this much over a #6 seed. While Wichita State admittedly, deserved a better seed, I don't feel that the Shockers should be laying this many points against a very competitive Dayton team. The Flyers had seven losses this season. A look at those losses shows that only one came by greater than six points and that was more than two months ago. The other six losses all came by six or fewer points. This is a team which beat Rhode Island twice and split with VCU. The Flyers nearly knocked off both St. Mary's and Northwestern. The Shockers, 7-15 ATS their last 22 tournament games, were only 3-4 ATS in neutral site games. That included an 0-2 ATS mark when listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Don't be "shocked" when this game comes down to the wire, Dayton improving to 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, when getting points. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON 10* GAME OF THE YEAR. While I respect the Rams, I believe that they're in over their heads here. True, the Rams come in on a roll, while the Bluejays have been a little inconsistent in recent weeks. Thats kept the line lower than it could have been, essentially making the pointspread a non-factor. Not bad when considering that Creighton is a #6 seed, facing an #11 seed. 

After an 18-1 start, Creighton lost its starting point guard, Maurice Watson, to injury. Admittedly, that was a blow to the team. It also took a toll when Watson was charged with sexual assault a few weeks later. This is a well-coached team thougha dn the adversity figures to have brought them closer together. 

Creighton's Ronnie Harrell Jr noted: "It's easy to get caught up in everything that's going on around you that you forget what's happening in front of you. So we've talked as a team, coaches included, about just staying in the moment, having each other's back as well as having everybody else's back. So I think that was the main thing for us, and I think we've done a great job of that."

Creighton coach Doug McDermott had this to say of his team: "For us to be seeded as one of the top 24 teams in the country, given everything we've been through, it's a testament to the will and togetherness, the cohesiveness of this group."

While many seem down on the Bluejays, keep in mind that they beat Providence by double-digits and then knocked off a good Xavier team to advance to the Big East finals. Thought they lost (to Villanova) when they got there, this is still a team which has proven capable of rising to the occasion and playing the #1 team in the country in their last game, at MSG, figures to help them here.

McDermott went on to say: "It's one thing for me to talk about what it's like, but to experience it and feel it, what the Garden is like on championship Saturday, it's something that's pretty incredible. And our experience here this week is going to help us moving forward and, I think, help us in the NCAA Tournament."

While the Rams are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three against Big East teams, the Bluejays were a perfect 13-0 SU (8-3 ATS in lined games) this season, when facing a non-conference opponent. They're also 11-3-1 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 as a neutral court favorite of three or fewer points, or a game where the line is a pick'em. Throw in the fact the BlueJays are 5-1 the last six times that they played with five or six day's rest and I'm backing the higher seed.

I'm playing on Vermont and Purdue to finish UNDER the total 10* OPENING RND TOTAL OF YEAR. Both these teams are very capable defensively. Perhaps as much as any team in the tournament, the Catamounts are here on the strength of their defense. Over its last five games, Vermont has allowed 53, 41, 41, 51 and 50 points. Thats right, the Catamounts have allowed 53 or fewer points in five straight games now. For the season, they allowed an average of 61.9 ppg, by far the best mark in the America East Conference. Note that the UNDER is 6-0-1 over the years when Vermont made it to the NCAA tournament. This season, five of Vermont's six tournament games stayed below the number. 

Of course, the Boilermakers also know a thing or two about playing exceptional defense. They allowed 74 points in their last game, a loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. However, that game went to OT and they'd only alllowed 66 in regulation. Thats in line with the 67.2 ppg which they allowed on average this season. Note that the UNDER was 2-0 the last two times that Purdue faced a team which came in allowing 64 or fewer points. Both Northwestern and Wisconsin were allowing less than 64 ppg when the Boilers faced them. Purdue raised its own defensive intensity in those games, allowing less than 60 points in each of those games. Facing this strong defensive Vermont team, I expect Purdue to again raise its defensive intensity, leading to the final combined score again staying below the total.  

I'm playing on FLORIDA 10* PERS FAV. True, the Gators had some trouble with Vanderbilt at the end of the year and come in with three losses in four games. Those results have keep this line a little lower, in my opinion, could easily have been.  Not only are the Gators a much stronger team, they also get to play at Orlando, quite close to home. 

While the Buccaneers were just 2-2 ATS as underdogs this season, the Gators were 17-8 ATS when laying points. The Bucs, who don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home, haven't played too many good teams. One "decent" team they faced was Datyon. The Flyers beat them by 14. 

The Bucs do have an elite player in senior guard TJ Cromer. However, he's just one player and the Gators are going to be paying extra attention to him. He'll get his points, but it won't be enough. 

In addition to being a stronger overall team which is playing at a favorable venue, I like the fact that Florida hasn't had as much time off in between games. The Gators last played on 3/10 compared to the Bucs last playing on 3/6. Thats a pretty big gap in between games for the Bucs - the longest they had this season. 

While the Bucs were 8-9 ATS in lined games against teams which score 77 or more points this season, the Gators are 4-1 ATS their last five against teams which score 77 or more. Look for them to "bounce back," serving notice that "they're back" with a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN 10* GAME OF WEEK. Obviously, both teams have played very well to get this far. I like what the Badgers have done more though. Michigan beat Minnesota by an 84-77 margin yesterday. However, Wisconsin destroyed Northwestern by a 76-48 margin. Prior to that, the Badgers beat Indiana by double-digits on Friday. Michigan, on the other hand, needed OT to get past Purdue. Playing those extra OT minutes - and having to fight harder than the Badgers - combined with the fact that the Wolverines also had to play Thursday while Wisconsin had that day off, figures to catch up with the Wolverines here. The Badgers have been the much stronger defensive team all season. They allowed 61.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 40.7% from the field. On the other hand, Michigan allowed 65.5 ppg, opposing teams shooting 46.5%. Look for the Badgers' fresher legs and superior defense to be the difference. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* ANNIHILATOR. I won with the Spartans when these teams met on 1/11. At the time, a lot of people were backing the underdog Gophers, who were playing with 'revenge' from a 1-point loss on 12/27. I opted to lay the small number with the Spartans though, expecting their homecourt to prove too much to overcome. They rewarded me with a 65-47 victory, jumping out to a 39-17 lead by half. This one, however, is at the Verizon Center and I expect an entirely different result. 

The Gophers made remarkable progress this season, a 15-game turnaround from last year. Getting knocked out in their first tournament game and losing all three to the Spartans is NOT the way that they want their Big Ten campaign to come to an end. I expect an extremely motivated effort and I expect them to be far more ready to play than they were last time. Note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS and 8-1 SU the last nine times that it attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

The Gophers have the second best RPI (behind Purdue) in the Big Ten. They hold opposing teams to a 39.6% field goal percentage, which is best in the Big Ten. They also rank #1 in 3-point defense, limiting opposing teams to 30.8% from beyond the arc.

One of the impressive things about the Gophers' defense is that its been every bit as good on the road as it has been at home. Thats helped lead to a winning (6-5) road record. On the other hand, the Spartans give up considerably more points on the road (72.1) than they do at home. On the road, they allow opposing teams to connect on 43.3% of their shots. 

When the teams last met, the Gophers were part way through a 5-game losing streak. They're arguably playing much better now. Though they did lose their last one, they'd previously won eight straight. Look for their superior defense to be the difference, as they bounce back and "take the next step" by beating the Spartans and earning a tournament win. 

I'm playing on TULSA 10* PERS FAV. Admittedly, the Golden Hurricane haven't been very good in March the past couple of seasons. However, I expect them to break through with a big win this evening. While Tulsa's 14-16 record may not seem too impressive, it starts to look pretty good when compared to Tulane's 6-24 (2-14 on the road) mark.

Tulsa only connects on 42% of its shots. The Green Wave are worse though, making just 40.7% (37.9% on the road) of theirs. Its on the other side of the ball where Tulsa really has the edge though. The Golden Hurricane allow 70.3 points on 43.5% shooting. The Green Wave, on the other hand, allow 78.9 ppg on 47.4% shooting. 

Tulane does come off a rare win, an 81-69 win over the same Tulsa team they'll face here. However, the Green Wave are only 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were off a conference win, 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS this season. They wanted that game (Senior Day) more than Tulsa, but that won't be the case here. The Golden Hurricane are 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) when laying points. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on TCU 10* PERS FAV. The Sooners just won a matchup between these teams on Saturday. I expect the Frogs, 7-2 ATS their last nine on a neutral court, to return the favor this evening. While the Sooners closed the season on a bit of a roll, they were still just 11-19 overall, 3-12 when playing away from home. The loss of Jordan Woodard figures to catch up with the Sooners here. TCU, on the other hand, has a coach (Dixon) who has them believing that it can make a magical run. Not only did Dixon play on the last TCU team to win an NCAA tourney game but he also took Pitt to the Big Dance in 11 of 13 seasons there. 

TCU point guard Jaylen Fisher noted: "Right now, it's do-or-die time. We've got to come out and get it. Coming into the Big 12 tournament, I think we can get it done."

Oklahoma is 13-22 ATS its last 35 conference tournament games and 8-12 ATS its last 20 first round tournament games. During that span, the Frogs are 11-3 ATS in first round tournament games, 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons. Overall, the Frogs are 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10 tournament games. I think they bring a little more to the table and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on RICE. I believe that there's a big gap in talent between these teams and that the Golden Eagles' best chance of staying competitive would be if the Owls took them lightly. However, with both regular season meetings having been closer than expected, the Owls have already taken them for granted. They've had their "wake-up call" and I don't expect them to make the same mistake. The Owls know how to win, regarldess of venue. They averaged 81 ppg away from home, going 9-5. Overall, they were 21-10. Conversely, Southern Miss was 9-21 and that included a horrific 1-15 mark, when playing away from home. The Golden Eagles averaged just 56.7 points in those 16 games. Look for the Owls, 4-1 ATS their last five on a neutral court, to be all business the entire way, pulling away for a blowout win. 

I'm playing on Syracuse and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Syracuse enters this game on an 'over' streak. Miami enters this game on an 'under' streak. I expect to be the latter of those two streaks which continues here. When these teams met back in January, the Orange played with great energy defensively. They were off a terrible defensive effort (vs. Boston College) but bounced back with a determined effort on that side of the ball, arguably one of their best of the season. They'd limit Miami to a mere 55 points, a game which stayed below the total by double-digits. While the Orange were efficient offensively, it was their defense which really made the difference. They'll be looking to repeat the same formula this afternoon. Meanwhile, the Canes will be looking to exact some revenge. They came into the earlier game with an 11-2 record and got outworked on both sides of the ball. The Orange hit a higher percentage of their field goals than any previous opponent which Miami had faced. Thats not going to sit well with a Miami team which hangs its hand on its defense. The Canes allowed only 63.4 ppg on the season. That ranked in the top 25 in the country and was second to only Virginia in the ACC. Expect a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 8* VIOLATOR. With a 14-15 record, the #8 seeded Vikings may not seem like a team worthy of laying this many points. However, when compared to #9 Northern Arizona, which checks in with a dismal 9-22 record, I believe that the Vikings are actually pretty good. Whether they're talking about football or basketball, you still sometimes hear people make the statement: "Defense wins championships." Well, offense helps too. The Vikings score far more points than any team in the Big Sky. Portland State averages 86 ppg. At 80 ppg, North Dakota, which finished with the best overall record in the conference, was second best. On the other hand, Northern Arizona is at the very bottom of the conference offensively, averaging just 69.4 ppg. The Lumberjacks don't do enough defensively to make up for it either, as they allow 79 ppg, when playing away from home. The Vikings, which also rank in the top 3 in the entire country in steals, may have lost a couple in a row but I feel that they're going to come in confident. Last year, they were also the #8 seed in this tournament. Not only did they win their opening round game, then nearly beat Weber State (which ended up winning the whole thing) as they were leading with less than three minutes to go. Plus, they just beat these same Lumberjacks by a dozen points on 2/25. I backed the Vikings in that game and I'm going with them again here.

I'm playing on VERMONT 10* PERS FAV. While the Wildcats have been solid, the Catamounts are on a mission. They're destroying teams right now and I don't expect them to let the Wildcats, who they've already beaten twice, to stand in their way. After winning the regular season title, the Catamounts tipped off postseason play with an 86-41 obliteration of Maine. Full of confidence, the Catamounts haven't lost since before Christmas. Their last four wins have all come by double-digits. While the Wildcats have a modest winning streak of their own, it came against the bottom feeders of the America East. Playing at home in the the Roy L Patrick Gymnasium, where they've outscored teams by an average score of 75.2 to 57.3, look for the Catamounts to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* VIOLATOR. This one should get ugly. The Cougars already won by 16 when the teams met in January. That was at East Carolina, where the Pirates are far more competitive. They're 12-5 at home but just 2-11 on the road. Off an emotional win over UConn on Senior Night, it should be easy for them to lay an egg here. On the other hand, Houston should be highly motivated. Not only is this Senior Day for the Cougars, but they're also off an ugly loss in their last game, one which saw them score only 47 points. They've had an excellent season and the last thing they want to do is to squader it and limp into the conference tournament off back-to-back losses. The Cougars won by 16 points each previous time that they'd scored 60 or fewer points this season, covering the spread in each of those. I expect them to win by an even bigger margin than that here. 

I'm playing on WSU and UCLA to finish UNDER the total 10* BEST BET. When these teams met at Washington State earlier, the O/U line was only a couple of points higher. However, that was with the Cougars playing on their home floor, where they were expected to be (slightly) more competitive than they are here. UCLA won 95-79. The Bruins are likely to again put up a fairly big number. However, the Cougars are unlikely to get anywhere close to 79. (Last year's game here resulted in a 83-50 win for UCLA.)

The Bruins have started playing better defense, as the postseason draws closer. They held Washington to 66 points last game. They've allowed 66, 70 and 60 their last three games here. Those three games all came against opponents which average a lot more points than the Cougars, too. Note that WSU managed only 64 and 49 points its last two road games. 

With the Bruins favored by about three touchdowns, note that the Cougars have seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 when listed as road underdogs of greater than a dozen points, 7-1 if you count neutral site games. With the UNDER also at 8-2 in UCLA's 10 games against teams with a losing record, look for this number to prove a little too high.

I'm playing on LONG BEACH STATE 10* BIG WEST GAME OF YEAR. The Warriors come in with the better overall record and they won when the teams met at Hawaii. However, I believe that the 49ers are favored for good reason. While the 49ers may only have one senior (Anson Moye) to recognize on Senior Night, this game is still a big deal. A victory gives the 49ers, who are off b2b losses, some positive momentum entering the Big West Tournament. It also would give them the #4 seed for that tournament and a rematch with these same Warriors. They've been outstanding (9-2) here all season and I believe that they're going to want to "establish dominance" over the Warriors, before the tournament. Speaking of the tournament, the Warriors have had an emotional 24 hours. They just learned yesterday that they're eligible for the Big West Tournament. I believe that could easily cause them to "look ahead" to those bigger games. While the 49ers are well-rested, having not played since 2/25, the Warriors just played on Thursday. That loss dropped them to 3-6 on the road. The Warriors average 64.7 ppg on the road, the 49ers average 77.5 ppg at home. I believe they're going to be both hungrier and fresher and I expect that to lead to a win and cover. *Top Big West

I'm playing on UAB. I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, a cover against Middle Tennessee State. This should be another good spot for them. Its true that UAB has won only one if its last seven games. Those results have actually worked in our favor. Not only have they kept the line a little lower than it could have been but they should provide us with an extremely motivated UAB team. A closer look reveals that four of those seven games came on the road and that the two home losses came against MTSU and ODU, two of the top four teams in the conference. During that 7-game stretch, the lone home game vs. an opponent (Charlotte) in a similar class as the one they'll face here, resulted in a 13-point win and cover. Speaking of that Charlotte game, the Blazers were laying -10, which is higher than they opened up here. Yet, the 49ers are arguably better than the Owls. (FAU did beat Charlotte by two points in h2h action, but Charlotte has the superior overall record on the season.) While the Owls are 5-8 on the road, the Blazers are still a healthy 10-4 at home. The Blazers have beaten the Owls three straight times, including a 104-67 destruction the last time they met on this floor. I'm expecting another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on XAVIER 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Musketeeers have really struggled down the stretch. In fact, they're in the midst of their worst losing streak in many years. On Senior Night, looking to avenge a recent loss at Marquette, I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed win. The Golden Eagles could easily get caught looking ahead to their only Senior Day, Saturday's showdown vs. Creighton, Luke Fischer's final regular season game. While the Eagles won big at BMO Harris Bradley Center on Feb 18, the Musketeers had previously dominated the recent series. Speaking of that 2/18 game, its one that the Musketeers won't have forgotten. Not only did the Eagles pound them but the Marquette fans started a chant of "F— you Xavier!" That resulted in the following statement from Marquette admin: "Profane chants don't reflect our values. They don't show support for our student athletes on the court, or respect for our opponents. And they don't send the right message about who we are to families sitting nearby, visitors from a fellow Jesuit institution or to the rest of the country watching on television." Needless to say, it didn't sit too well with the Musketeers. Keep in mind that Xavier was a Top 25 team not too long ago. Now, the Musketeers are likely going to need a strong showing in the Big East tournament for a shot at the Big Dance. I say the "bounce back" starts here with some "payback" on Wednesday. *GOW

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* PERS FAV. The Bonnies check in with the superior overall record. However, I believe that the Wildcats are favored for good reason. Both teams are going to want this one. The Bonnies will be looking for some payback against a Davidson team which knocked them out of the A-10 tourney, in "heart-breaking" fashion, last season.  The Wildcats will be every bit as hungry though, if not more. Its their final regular season home game - Senior Day - and they'll be looking to go out with a bang. While the Bonnies have an explosive backcourt duo of Adams and Mobley, this floor belongs to the tandem of Gibbs and Aldridge, a pair of Wildcat guards who are averaging better than 42 combined points on the season. Mathematically, the Bonnies can still improve their seeding for the A-10 Tourney. However, the reality is that they're likely already locked into the 5th seed. In order to improve, they'd need to win both their remaining games while also having Rhode Island or Richmond, who each play relatively easy games, to lose both theirs. While the Bonnies are 1-6-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 140s, the Cats are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were home favorites of three or less. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* BLOODBATH. There's a significant class difference between these teams and this one should get ugly. The Jayhawks are rolling right now. They've won six straight and covered the spread in their last three. Playing their home finale, I expect them to keep the pedal the metal the entire way. While the Sooners were impressive in scoring a minor upset (at OU) vs. K-State last time out, they're just 3-11 away from home. They've got a winnable game (TCU) on deck but can't be very confident about their chances here. While the Sooners average 72.2 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks average 87.8 ppg here at home. Look for Kansas, also better on the defensive side of the ball, to deliever a "statement blowout."

I'm playing on QUINNIPIAC 10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH. I've recently won with Rider and have recently successfully played against Quinnipiac. However, in each of those instances, I was playing on a revenge-minded home team, which was playing its fiinal home game. Today, the shoe is on the other foot. Its the Bobcats which will be playing with revenge and the Bobcats which will be playing their final home game. Though the Bobcats already know they'll be the #8 seed in the MAAC tourney, I believe they're going to be extremely motivated to close out the regular season with a win. They badly want to snap their losing streak, a win here will get them back to .500 at home and avenge the earlier "track meet" loss (112-107) at Rider. Also, the Bobcats will honor seniors Harris, Chigha and Smith before the game and would really like to send them out as winners. Look for them to do just that, the Broncs falling to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were road favorites of three or less. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE 10* BLOODBATH. I expect a motivated Vikings team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Not only are they playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss at Northern Iowa but this marks the Vikings' final game at Peter W. Stott Center's main gym, as the entire complex is being remodeled and renovated. (Next year, the team will play at Viking Pavilion.) They'll want to close things out here with a big win, as they recognize five seniors who are playing their last game here. Northern Arizona averages 69 ppg on the road, going 3-14. On the other hand, Portland State averages 90.2 ppg here at home, going 9-3. Payback time. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* BEST BET. The Bruins are 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they were listed as road underdogs (or pick) of three or fewer points. They won 23 of those games outright. They'll be looking to avenge a loss at UCLA, their only home loss, and I like their chances of another "upset" there. There was some initial talk that Ball might not play but as of this writing, it appears he'll be good to go. While the Cats score 78 ppg at home, the Bruins score 88 ppg on the road. While we have to go back some time, note that the Cats are just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. I'm backing the Bruins.

I'm playing on EMU 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Huskies won by 12 points when these teams met at NIU a few weeks ago. That game marked the beginning of what has turned out to be a dismal (winless) February for Eastern Michigan. Playing their final home game of the month, where they should be able to more effectively dicate the tempo, I expect a motivated Eagles team to exact some revenge this afternoon. While the Eagles score a healthy 85.8 ppg at home, the Huskies score a mere 66.2 ppg on the road. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) the last 10 times that they were favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* BLOODBATH. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three consecutive losses, their first losing streak of more than two games, the Bears are going to be in an angry mood. This also marks their final home game of the regular season (Senior Night) and they'll be looking to send Jabari Bird, Sam Singer, Roger Moute a Bidias, Stephen Domingo and Grant Mullins out in style. With an 0-14 record on the road, the Beavers represent the perfect opponent. Expect the Bears, who still have a shot at a first round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to a blowout win.

I'm playing on DAVIDSON 10* MAIN EVENT. The Flyers are on a winning streak and are likely going to be a popular play here. However, I like the Wildcats to score the upset. Davidson, which lost at Richmond last time out, has long thrived off a conference loss. In fact, the Wildcats are 50-19 SU and 44-23 ATS the last 59 times that they were off a conference loss. That includes a 13-8 SU/ATS mark their last 21 in that situation. The last time that they lost, they followed it up with a double-digit victory over George Washington. That also happened to be their most recent home game. Keep in mind that the Wildcats have already beaten VCU here, the team Dayton is battling for top spot. So, they've shown that they can compete with the best in the conference, on this floor. Speaking of VCU, Dayton plays the Rams next, a huge game. Though the Flyers do get a few days off first, on their current winning streak, it could be easy to look past Davidson and ahead to that one. I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* PERS FAV. Homecourt means a lot to both of these teams. The Utes won big when they met at Utah earlier. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Buffaloes to return the favor this evening. While the Utes are 5-7 on the road, the Buffaloes are 11-3 at home. Utah gives up 71.3 ppg on the road, Colorado gives up 67.7 at home. Colorado also scores 77.3 at home, compared to 74.9 for the Utes on the road. The Utes just got swept in Oregon, losing by 18 at Eugene against the Ducks and by a single points at Corvallis against the Beavers. That last loss figures to sting a little, as 1-point losses often do. It also shows how much differently this team plays on the road, as the Utes had beaten those same Beavers fairly comfortably when the teams played at Utah. Homecourt proves the difference, again. 

I'm playing on RIDER 10* GAME OF WEEK. I won with the Jaspers in their last game. That was a great spot for them. This is not. Last game, the Jaspers were playing their regular season home finale, "Senior Night." They had a chance to get to .500 at home. They were also playing with 'revenge' against a Quinnipiac team which had defeated them in their previous game. Perhaps most importantly, they were catching their opponent off a deflating OT loss. None of those things apply here, however. 

This time, the Jaspers are on the road. They're just 3-12 away from home. They're facing a Rider team which is coming off a momentum-building 18-point win at Iona and which is playing its home finale. A victory here ensures the Broncs of a winning season overall, as well as a winning home record. Rider lost a close one (76-73) at Manhattan back in mid-January. Payback time. *GOW

I'm playing on BAYLOR 10* MAIN EVENT. The Sooners are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Bears are going to be in a foul mood. They've only lost back-to-back games once and they responded with a win and cover (at OSU) in their next game. The Sooners have had a long season and have little hope in winning either of their remaining two road games. These teams met at OU earlier, the Bears winning by 26 points. That was with the Sooners playing at home and playing with Jordan Woodard, their best player. He's now out making an already tough task that much more difficult. Sure, they'd love to avenge that embarrassing loss. However, in this case, wanting to do something and actually doing it are two entirely different matters. If the Bears hadn't just lost those games, one could make a case for them looking past the Sooners ahead to Iowa State. I don't see that happening here though. Baylor wins big, again. 

I'm playing on Coastal Carolina and South Alabama OVER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. This is a big game for both teams. It could well be close and both teams figure to put up a decent number of points. Coast Carolina games are averaging 144.6 combined points on the season. However, that number climbs all the way to 149.2 when the Chanticleers play on the road. (They give up a whopping 80.1 ppg away from home, allowing host teams to connect on better than 46% of their fg's.) Last time out, the Chanticleers combined with Troy for 165 points. South Alabama games are averaging 143.3 points on the season. That number has been higher recently though. After combining with Appalachian State for 161 last time out, the Jaguars have now see their last five games average 149.6. The OVER is 6-3 when the Chanticleers played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and 7-3 when the Jaguars played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. All things considered, this O/U line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on UVA 10* VIOLATOR. On Saturday, I successfully played on Miami while also successfully played against Virginia. So, some might be surprised that I'm "going the other way here" and playing on Virgnia and against Miami. However, each game needs to be looked at on its own individual merits and in this case, I feel that its the Cavs who will have a decided advantage. 

One of the (several) reasons that I played on the Hurricanes on Saturday was that I knew the had this game, a likely loser for them, on deck. Likewise, I knew that the Cavs, who have now dropped three straight for the first time this season, had this winnable game on deck. 

While this is the first time that the Cavs have lost three in a row, its the second time in which they failed to cover three straight. The previous time that happened? They responded with a win/cover in their next game, a 76-53 blowout of ECU. Including that result, they're a perfect 6-0 SU the last six times that they'd failed to cover three in a row.

The Canes are tough to beat on their home floor but they're below .500 on the road. They're also just 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record. Here, they'll face an angry Virginia team which allows a mere 50.9 ppg on this floor. I'm expecting the Cavs to deliver another dominant defensive effort, en route to a double-digit victory.

I'm playing on MANHATTAN 10* MAAC GAME OF YEAR. I really like how this one sets up for the Jaspers, who are going to be highly motivated to avenge an earlier (2-point) loss at Qunnipiac and to win their final home game of the regular season. 

Both teams are off three straight losses. However, the Jaspers were blown out at Siena on Thursday while the Bobcats lost in heart-breaking fashion, at Fairfield, on Friday. I believe that Manhattan's loss - and the extra day of recovery/preparation - to prove  I call it "heart-breaking fashion," as the Bobcats were down 16 points in the second half, gave it everything they had and fought back to finally take a lead. Then, with less than one second (0.1) remaining, Fairfield hit a basket to force OT. The Stags would go on to lose by an 89-86 score. Some types of losses sting more than others and that one figures to fall into that category. 

While the Bobcats are 4-10 on the road, the Jaspers can get to .500 at home with a win. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were off three or more consecutive SU losses and I expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on UNC 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. No matter what school or team one is talking about, life in the ACC is almost never easy. This is an incredibly challenging conference. You rarely get a break, or easy game. It can wear down the best of teams. I think thats started to happen to Virginia of late. The Cavs are just 1-3 SU/ATS their last four games. They responded to a loss at Syracuse by returning home and beating Louisville. However, that was followed by a narrow 2-point loss against instate rival V-Tech and proceeded by a double-digit loss against Duke. Things certainly don't get any easier here. Indeed, the Tar Heels are perfect on their home floor this season. 

Don't expect the Heels to show the Cavs any sympathy. UNC just got one of those "easy" wins, a 24-point blowout win at NC State. However, the Heels are well aware that this game marks the first of a 5-game stretch to close out the season which will feature four games against ranked teams. They also know that they'll be facing the Cavs, at Virginia, on 2/27. In other words, they better take care of business here. 

With four losses in six games, Virginia may be lacking some confidence. Monday's home game against Miami may provide them the opportunity to get some back. Not today though. Not here. The blowout of NC State and the perfect home record will have the Tar Heels brimming with of confidence. They score more than 90 points per game at home while Virginia scores less than 70 ppg on the road. Homecourt proves the difference, UNC "holding serve" and improving to 14-8 ATS the last 22 times it was a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. A look at the upcoming schedule shows that this game offers the Hurricanes their best chance at a victory. Three of their next four are on the road, none of them at easy venues, (V-Tech, Virginia and FSU) and their only remaining home game is against Duke. That means that they better take care of business this afternoon. I expect them to do exactly that. While the Tigers are 5-7 on the road, the Canes are 12-2 at home. Clemson allows 74 ppg on the road, opposing teams shooting 45.2%. Miami allows 62.3 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 39.3% of their shots. The Tigers won by 11 at Clemson last season. However, the Canes won by 11 here at Miami the previous season. Homecourt makes the difference once again. 

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON 10* BIG SKY GAME OF YEAR. When the Vandals rejoined the Big Sky a couple of years ago, they brought with them an 18-0 conference win/loss record against Eastern Washington. (Idaho had been an original "charter" member of the conference in 1963 but left in 1996.) Things changed while the Vandals were gone though. Including a 69-62 victory at Moscow in late December, its the Eagles who have now won five of the last seven in this "rivalry." 

Tonight's game has important implications for the upcoming Big Sky Tournament. The Eagles have a far superior overall record; they're 17-9 overall while the Vandals are 13-11. However, the teams are still close in terms of conference records; EWU is 9-5 while UI is 8-5. While the Eagles should already have an excellent shot at a first round bye (top 5 teams in the conference get a bye) they believe that they can achieve even more than that. 

As EWU coach Jim Hayford noted: " ... With a good homestand, we can fight for the conference championship ... "

Admittedly, the Vandals have played well in recent weeks. However, their positive momentum came to a crashing halt last time out, an 88-65 reality check at North Dakota. On the other hand, the Eagles bring some positive momentum into tonight's game as they're off a convincing 70-44 thrashing of Northern Colorado. 

As mentioned, the Eagles won at Idaho. They've been much better here at home, however. In fact, they're 12-1 SU in all "home" games, 8-1 SU in "home lined games." The Vandals, on the other hand, have won only four of their 12 road lined games.

Idaho isn't that great offensively, averaging just 73.3 ppg overall and 71.1 ppg on the road. That can make keeping up with good offensive teams (EWU averages 86 at home and has averaged over 90 its last five games) difficult. With an O/U line of 143 across the board, as of this writing, note that the Vandals are just 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. 

The Eagles know that they need to win here, to make the upcoming Weber State game here really meaningful and to keep any chance of the Big Sky reg. season title alive. They jumped all over the Vandals in the last game, taking a 39-25 lead into the break. Coming off the big win and with Idaho coming off the big loss, I expect "more of the same" tonight, another win and cover for the Eagles. 

I'm playing on MARSHALL 10* PERS FAV. I backed the Blazers (free play) when these teams met last month at UAB. So, I wasn't all that surprised to see UAB hold serve on its home floor. Including that result, the Blazers are 10-3 on their home floor but 5-8 when playing on the road. Marshall's home/road difference is even more pronounced. The Here are 3-10 when playing away from home but a dominating 11-1 here at home - the best home record in C-USA, in fact. While the Blazers are 1-8 ATS in road lined games, the Herd are 8-1 ATS in home lined games. UAB has had its way in the series in recent years including a close win here last season. I look for that to change tonight, homecourt making the difference once again.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Explorers have upset the Bonnies each of the past two seasons but I don't see it happening here. Though the Bonnies have failed to cover a few in a row, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. While the Bonnies average better than 82 ppg on this floor, the Explorers allow more than 82 ppg, when playing on the road. The Bonnies lost a close one last time out, after winning by 15 in their previous game. However, they've been at their best in that situation as they're a perfect 4-0 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on the season, when off a conference loss. They won those games by an average of 13 points, the victories coming by 10, 20, 7 and 15 points. Expect homecourt to be the difference, the Bonnies again bouncing back with a win and cover.

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams have very similar home/road stats; each is significantly better on its home floor. The Cyclones are 9-3 on their home floor but 6-6 when playing away from home. Likewise, the Wildcats are also 6-6 when playing away from home but they're 10-3 here at home. Not surprisingly, given those records, the Cyclones won when the teams played at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch played at K-State, I expect the revenge-minded Wilcats to have the advantage. While the Cyclones are 2-4 ATS this season, after scoring 80 or more points, the Wildcats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) after allowing 80 or more. The Cyclones allow 76.7 ppg on the road, the Cats allow 64.5 ppg here at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY 10* ANNIHILATOR. A lot of handicappers, amateurs and pros alike, are quick to back an elite team in revenge situations. I did so myself last night with Kansas (which didn't go so well!) and am doing so again here. I don't do so blindly though, as I'm well aware that the pointspread tends to be pretty high on these teams, in these situations. I'm also well aware that Kentucky doesn't have a profitable recent history, when playing in the 'revenge' role. That said, I always look at each game individually and without bias. Every way I analyze this one, I get the same result - a big win for the Cats. 

Its been awhile since the Cats "blew a team out" and I feel that they're going to be motivated to do so here. Partly because the Vols beat them already. Absolutely. But also because they've got their next two on the road before hosting Florida, a team which beat them by 20 less than two weeks ago, in their next game here. I feel that they're going to look to build some confidence here - and I believe that the Vols will provide them that opportunity. 

The Vols are below .500 on the road. They only score 73.8 ppg away from home and they allow 74.4. Here, they'll face a Wildcat team which outscores teams by an average score of 92.4 to 72.4 on this floor. 

Note that the Vols are off a tough 1-point loss, as a favorite against Georgia, in their last game. Those types of defeats tend to sting and can be deflating. Not what you need when heading into hostile Kentucky. 

While they may not always thrive in the revenge role (4-6 ATS and 8-2 SU L10) the Cats have fared very well as home favorites of this size, in recent seasons. In fact, they're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. With payback on their minds, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on KANSAS 10* GAME OF WEEK. While the Mountaineers are a fairly deep and talented team, I don't think they've got enough to sweep this very talented (and very well-coached) Kansas team. The Jayhawks are off back-to-back very close wins, which should serve them well in a "wake up call" way, here. They know they were a bit fortunate. They know they have to play better. Those results have also helped us in keeping the line a little lower than it easily could have been. Note that the Jayhawks are 69-11 SU the last 80 times that they were listed as favorites. During that 80-game span, they were only listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range twice. They won and covered both of those games. 

While the Mountaineers are 7-3, averaging 78.5 ppg on the road, the Jayhawks are 11-1, averaging 88.2 ppg, at home.

They're 50-12 SU the last 62 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss, 9-2 their last 11. Look for the Jayhawks to improve on those numbers, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WSU and Colorado to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. When these same teams met at Washington State a few weeks ago, the O/U line was several points lower. That was a game where the Buffaloes were favored by single-digits oints though. Playing at home, the Cougars were expected to compete, in a close game. It was indeed close, the entire way, the Cougars ultimately prevailing in OT. This time, the home team is laying a considerably larger number. Thats due in part to the Cougars' mediocre offense (71.3 ppg is the 4th worst in the conference) but also due to the facet that the Buffaloes have been very stingy here at home. Opposing teams shoot only 40.5% from the field here, averaging less than 70 points. The last two teams to play here (Washington and Oregon) have scored just 65 and 66 points, respectively. If those teams, which average 78 and 79 ppg, both scored 66 or less, the Cougars figure to have some trouble scoring here. The UNDER is 9-3 in Colorado home games and 5-1 in Cougar road games. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* PERS FAV. The Aztecs are going to be in a foul mood this afternoon. Not only are they coming off an upset loss at SJ State but they also haven't forgotten that the Wolfpack beat them by three points back in early January. Both those losses came on the road, however, where the Aztecs are now below .500. Here at home, they outscore teams by a commanding 75.2 to 62.9 margin. Nevada is having a strong season and is currently on top of the conference. The Aztecs are still the top defensive team in the Mountain West though and I believe they're favored for good reason. Expect them to bounce back big, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. With a #1 ranking and an undefeated record, Gonzaga is obviously having a great season. If they can get through today, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way. Don't expect that to be easy though. While the Gaels haven't been as awesome as the Bulldogs, they've still been very good. In fact, they've won seven straight and they're 16-1 their last 17. The lone loss, during that span, was a blowout, at Gonzaga. Catching their rivals on their home floor and with a rare chance to earn a victory against a #1 seed, I expect the revenge-minded Gaels, who are allowing an average of just 48.6 ppg their last five games, to rise to the occasion. Look for them to earn AT LEAST the cover with an excellent shot at the upset. 

10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT, I'm playing on MSU. The Hawkeyes gave a great effort on Wednesday. It wasn't enough though. If you bet on them, it was a very bad beat. Getting +6.5 or +7 points, they lost by 12, in double-OT. While theyve since had a couple of days off, that loss still figures to take a toll on them today. The Spartans may not score as many as Iowa, but they've got the considerably better defense. The Hawkeyes are just 3-11-1 ATS their last 15, after having allowed 80 or more points. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 8-2 ATS their last 10 against teams which score 77 or more points per game. I'm going with the home team. 

10* PERS FAV, I'm playing on UCF. The Huskies won big when these teams played at UConn last month. Playing on their home floor, where they're 11-2 on the season, the Knights should return the favor. While the Huskies get outcored by an average score of 70.7 to 68.8 on the road, where they are 4-8, the Knights outscore teams by a commanding 71.1 to 56.6 margin here at Central Florida. While its no secret that the Huskies will be looking to push the pace, the Knights should be able to more effectively slow the tempo in their own buidling. UConn is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five as a road underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. During that span, UCF is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Going back further finds the Knights at 14-8 ATS (20-2 SU) their last 22 in that role. I say, "its payback time." 

I'm playing on NC State and WF to finish UNDER the total 8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL. Both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games recently, both bringing 'over' streaks into the game. While I won't try and claim that these are exceptionally stingy defenses - they're not - I do think that this line will prove to be too high. When these same teams met at NC State a few weeks ago, the O/U line was several points lower. That was a game where the home team was favored by only -1.5 points though. So, both teams were expected to compete, in a close game. It was indeed close, the entire way, WF ultimately snapping its 25-game ACC road losing streak. This time, the home team is laying a considerably larger number. Thats due in large part to NC State's inability to score on the road. The Wolfpack are averaging just 72.6 ppg on the road. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the last two times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Last season's meeting between these teams here had an O/U line of 148 and finished with 151. Much has changed since then but, in my opinion, not enough to warrant quite so signficant an increase in the total. Look for the final score to be a little lower than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on PENNSLYVANIA 10* PERS FAV. It might seem funny to see the Quakers laying points, as they're still winless in conference play. However, I believe that they're favored for good reason. The next two games (this one and Cornell, which is on deck) are critical for this team, particularly this one.

Even Penn coach Donahue had to acknowledge: "In terms of making the tournament, I think both of the games this weekend are must-win. When you play at home against teams in front of you in the standings, you just can't keep losing."

Yes, the Quakers have dropped three straight. However, two of those were on the road and the other was against Princeton, the top team in the conference. While still not "easy," Columbia isn't quite in that class. The Quakers are 9-4 ATS off three or more consecutive losses the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to bounce back and take this critical game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UCLA 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Bruins are going to be in an angry mood. Not only did they lose their last game on this floor - their only home loss of the season - but they also lost by two points, at Oregon, on 12/28. Including that result, the Ducks are a perfect 15-0 as the home team. However, they've tasted defeat three times when playing away from home. While the Ducks average 71.9 ppg on the road, the Bruins average a whopping 97 ppg here at home. The Bruins also haven't forgotten that the Ducks defeated them here last season. They've only played one other game, on this floor, this season when the O/U line was in the 160s. The Bruins won that one by 40 points. They need this game to stay in the Pac-12 hunt and I expect them to get it, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UC IRVINE 10* PERS FAV. The Anteaters already won by four at Santa Barbara. Now they'll face a rebuilding Gauchos team which is even more banged-up now than it was then and which is 0-11 when playing away from home. Normally, the Gauchos might have a shot at hanging around and covering the big number. However, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Anteaters are going to be furious and looking to take out their anger on someone. A couple of weeks ago, the Big West was looking like it belonged to them. Now, they've squandered their lead. Expect them to play with anger. The Anteaters outscored teams by a 77.9 to 62.2 margin at home. Conversely, the Gauchos get outscored by a 79.4 to 62.4 margin on the road. It all adds up to a blowout. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE 10* ANNIHILATOR. This one should get ugly. Off a bizarre OT loss vs. VCU, the Bonnies are going to be in a foul mood. Note that they're already 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a loss in conference play this season, including a road win at Duquesne and double-digit wins against Fordham and a strong George Mason team. They beat Fordham by 20, a team arguably stronger than St. Louis. The Bonnies already won by 19 on the Billikens' home floor and the Billikens are just 1-8 away from St. Louis. With the Billikens, who are 0-4 ATS (0-5 SU) their last five against teams which average 77 or more ppg, averaging only 55.9 ppg on the road and the Bonnies averaging 83.6 ppg here at home, I see this one going only one way. 

I'm playing on MARQUETTE 10* GAME OF YEAR. The Golden Eagles have had this one circled and they'll have payback on their minds. You may recall that they blew an 18-point halftime lead in a January game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. 

Marquette's Andrew Rowsey was quoted as saying: "... we owe them something from last time we played at Hinkle."

While I respect the Bulldogs, I believe that the Eagles are catching them at the right time. While the Eagles are off a confidence-building double-digit win, the Bulldogs check in off back-to-back home losses. 

While Butler has outscored teams by a modest 72-69 margin on the road, Marquette has dominated teams by a 85.5 to 69.8 average score in going 11-2 at home. 

While it may change throughout the day, as of this writing, the O/U line is 154. I mention that as Marquette is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS its last six home games, with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Meanwhile, Butler is 0-4 ATS its last four on the road, when the O/U line was in the 150 to 154.5 range. 

While the Bulldogs destroyed them at Butler last season, the Eagles won the game (by 6) here at Marquette. Look for homecourt to again prove the difference, revenge-minded Marquette settling the score. 

I'm playing on MONMOUTH. The Hawks took all three meetings with the Broncs last season, one of those coming in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament. This season, the Hawks are again dominating the MAAC.They're currently 19-5 on the season, an impressive 11-1 on their home floor. Their lone home loss came at the hands of these same Broncs, as Rider scored a major upset against them on New Year's Eve. A closer look reveals that the Hawks were still licking their wounds from a blowout loss at UNC a few days earlier. The UNC loss, combined with the fact that it was New Year's Eve, seemed to result in a lack of focus from Monmouth in the first meeting. This time, however, the Broncs should have the Riders' full attention. 

I'm playing on CAL 10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR. The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. The Buffaloes won by eight at Colorado. The Bears won by 14 here at Cal. I expect homecourt to again make the difference this afternoon. 

The Bears are just 3-4 when playing away from home. However, they're 13-2 here on their home floor. Playing dominant defense here, they've outscored teams by an average score of 71.9 to 59.9. Visiting teams connect on a mere 37.8% of their field goals here. 

On the other hand, the Buffaloes allow more than 76 ppg on the road, where they're just 4-7. While they won 81-74 at Stanford last time out, the Buffaloes have yet to win back-to-back road games and are just 2-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. I'm backing the Bears. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA 10* GAME OF MONTH. At first glance, some might find this line to be a little. However, a closer look reveals that it could easily be higher. Keep in mind that the Wildcats were favored by 27 when they hosted St. John's last February. Also, note that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. So, they've been "comfortable" in this role. 

Off a few close games, I believe that the Wildcats will be motivated to flex their muscles with a blowout win and that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. St. John's lost by 28 at Georgetown, one of four straight double-digit losses in January. So, the Red Storm are susceptible to a big loss. They're 0-2 SU/ATS the last couple of seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the 15.5 to 18 range. 

Including a 13-point win at MSG earlier, the Cats have beaten the Red Storm 13 straight times. Jay Wright said after the Providence win that "we still have a lot of work to do." Look for him to have his team ready to go from the opening tip and for them to ultimately pull away for a 20+ point blowout win.

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. Off three straight wins, the Hoyas are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. However, next up is a road game against the national champs. Thats followed by Marquette and another difficult road game, this time at Creighton. So, they've got some tough games in their immediate future. Later, this month, they'll take on these same Pirates, at Seton Hall. That all means that they absolutely need to take care of business at home this afternoon. Facing a struggling Seton Hall team which has lost five of six, the lone win coming home at home against St. John's, I expect the Hoyas to do just that. The Pirates, who are off an emotional 2-point loss at Xavier, are already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a true road game after also playing on the road in their last game. Overall, they're 0-5 on the road since Christmas. Homecourt makes the difference, the Hoyas covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. You'll hear a lot of talk about BYU's Nick Emery getting sent home from practice with an illness. Needless to say, thats not ideal. However, with or without him, I believe that the Cougars are going to be ready to play tonight. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are having a remarkable season. They're a great team and they'll be tough to beat. Anywhere. Against anyone. They like to run though and the Cougars to do too. In front of thousands of their screaming fans, I expect the Cougars to be one of the few teams capable of keeping up. BYU is averaging 86.9 ppg here while Gonzaga is averaging 83 on the road. 

While its possible this total will close in the 150s, I'll still note that the Cougars are a perfect 11-0 SU and 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 160s. During that span, they're also 7-3-1 ATS when playing a team which averages 77 or more points, after 15 or more games of the season. They don't mind a quick tempo.

Coach Rose, going for his #300th win, likes the mood of his team and had this to say: "I think that you can visually see from the guys, just the last couple of days, the excitement and the opportunity they feel. I think that any time you play a team in the top 25, but especially in the top 10, that it brings a real kind of national relevance to the game. I think our guys are excited about that." Look for Rose to have them ready to play as the Bulldogs, who would probably benefit from a closer game, finally get challenged. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams will meet again on 2/21, at Oakland. However, the Grizzlies will be double-digit favorites for that one. Here, we're getting them at a more reasonable number. While that might still seem like a lot, this is a team which has thrived on the road in recent seasons. In fact, the Grizzlies are 26-11-1 ATS in road lined games, the past 2+ seasons. 

When the Grizzlies win, they tend to win by a fairly comfortable margin. Nine of their last 11 victories, including each of their past two, have come by a minimum of nine points. 

While the Grizzlies have been profitable on the road, the Penguins are just 8-19 ATS (and SU) in home lined games the past 2+ seasons, 2-6 ATS so far this season. Yes, the Penguins won last game. However, that doesn't usually mean much to them, as they're already 0-3 SU/ATS off a conference win, 3-8 ATS (1-10 SU) their last 11 in that situation. 

Last season, almost exactly one year ago to the day, the Grizzlies were laying -12.5 points when they visited here. They won by 22. The previous year, almost exactly two years ago to the day, laying only -3 points when they visited here, the Grizzlies won by 16. 

The Grizzlies have been money when failing to cover three in a row, most recently winning by nine at Northern Kentucky. I'm expecting another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. The Tigers are in need of a big win and the Yellow Jackets should provide them the perfect opportunity. While Georgia Tech averages 63.9 ppg on the road, Clemson averages 81.2. ppg at home. Clemson connects on better than 47% of its shots here. GT hits only 41% of its fg's on the road. The Tigers also have the edge on the other side of the ball. They allow 67.2 ppg here as compared to the 75.9 ppg which GT allows on the road. The Tigers, who will be looking to avenge a January loss at GT, won by 14 the last time that these teams met on this floor. The gap between the teams is arguably bigger now than it was then and I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* PERS FAV. While I successfully played against the Buckeyes in their last game, I expect them to bounce back with an important win here. While the Buckeyes are now just 2-6 away from home, they're a much better team on their home floor. Off a win against Minnesota in their last game here, they're 11-3 when playing at home. All three of those losses came by two points or less, too. So, they could easily be even better here. Knowing that they'll be visiting Maryland in less than two weeks should add some urgency, as they know they need to hold serve at home. Needless to say, they could really use a victory against a ranked opponent. Its true that the Terps are having an outstanding season and also that they remain undefeated on the road. However, they're in the middle of a stretch which sees them play five of seven away from home. This will mark their fourth road game in the past five. Wtih a showdown vs. Purdue on deck, I expect it to catch up with them here. Coach Matta had this to say: "We have to play our best basketball Tuesday night. To quote Jim Tressel a few years ago, we have to be better than we are." Look for the Buckeyes to do just that, getting back on track with a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Grizzlies are off back-to-back losses and thats going to have them in a foul mood here. This is the third time that they were off b2b losses. Each of the previous two times they responded with a win and cover. They also haven't forgotten that Milwaukee beat them here last season. I believe that they've got a considerable talent edge (Milw averages 64.9 ppg on the road, Oakland averages 81.6 ppg at home) and expect them to improve to a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. Off a loss at Marquette, the well-coached Wildcats figure to be an angry team here. The only previous time that they lost this season, they responded with a win and cover, winning by 12 points. That brings them to 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference loss. With the Cavs just 7-17-1 ATS their last 25 against teams from the Big East, I'm laying the relatively small number with the champs. 

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* BEST BET. The Ducks are obviously a very strong team. However, I feel that they're a little over-valued here. The Buffaloes snapped a losing streak last game, knocking off Oregon State. That gives them some much-needed positive momentum and confidence. It should be noted that each of their previous three losses had come by three or fewer points. The Buffaloes, who lost by single-digits at Arizona, have beaten Xavier here. They've beaten Texas on a neutral floor while losing by six against Notre Dame. They got blown out at Oregon last year but beat the Ducks by four here at Colorado. In fact, they're 4-0 against Oregon here since 1997. I expect them to give the Ducks all they can handle again here. 

I'm playing on IOWA. 10* MAIN EVENT. With the pointspread likely a non-factor, I expect homecourt to make the difference in this one. The Hawkeyes are 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by an average score of 87.2 to 75.6 here. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are 2-5 away from home, getting outscored by a 75 to 69-point margin. Going back further finds Ohio State at 10-16 in true road games the past 2+ seasons, while Iowa is 37-9 at home. Hawkeyes bounce back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. Off a loss last time out, the Grizzlies are going to be in a foul mood tonight. The Phoenix are a capable team and they average a healthy 79.8 ppg. In fact, thats more ppg than Oakland, which averages 78. However, the Grizzlies tend to be at their best against high-scoring teams and the Phoenix remain below .500 on the road. The well-coached Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS the past couple of seasons against teams which score more than 77 ppg. During that stretch, they're also an outstanding 32-15 ATS against teams with a winning record overall. While GB may score more points per game overall, the Phoenix get outscored on the road, where they allow a whopping 79.6 per game. Oakland, on the other hand, outscores teams by an average score of 82.4 to 69.7 here at home. The Grizzlies have dominated the Phoenix here, including an 18-point win last season and a 20-point win here two seasons ago. I'm expecting another double-digit win this evening. 

I'm playing on DARTMOUTH 10* BEST BET. Admittedly, the Big Green had a terrible start to the season. They started to turn things around with three straight wins to close out December. However, they threw up an air-ball in their first game of 2017, losing by four points to CS-Bakersfield. Since then, they've played just two games - and both happened to come against Harvard, the top team in the Ivy League. Not surprisingly, they lost both of those, too. The Lions, who are off b2b close games (1 win, 1 loss) against Cornell, aren't in the same class as Harvard though. They're also one of a few teams with a better record away from home. With a big showdown on deck vs. Harvard on deck tomorrow, it may be easy to get caught looking past Dartmouth. That'll be a mistake though as Columbia isn't strong enough to overlook any team. Only three of the Lions' 15 games has resulted in a win by more than eight. Prior to the Harvard games, Dartmouth had seen five of six games decided by six or fewer points and the other was a 14-point win. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on UTAH 10* PERS FAV. Oregon is admittedly a strong team which is playing well. The Ducks are fully deserving of their national ranking. That said, I believe that the Utes opened as favorites for good reason. 

The Utes, who lost by one here against UCLA, know that they desperately need a "signature win." They also know that this will be one of the last opportunities for them to get one. 

Utah didn't have very high expectations coming into the season. The Utes have proven to be much better than most expected though and come in full of confidence. They're 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) within the conference. They're also 8-5 ATS (12-1 SU) when laying points.

The Utes 81.6 ppg has them ranked second in the conference, in terms of scoring. The number has been on the rise too, as they've scored 82 or more points in five straight games. Over that 5-game stretch, the Utes are averaging a whopping 87.6 ppg, on the strength of hitting 52.6% of their field goals. 

Including a 17-point loss at Baylor earlier in the season, the Ducks, who may again be without Dillon Brooks, are only 1-3-1 ATS (1-4 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

Oregon coach Dana Altman had this to say about the Utes: "They're a greatly improved team with the two transfers they added at Christmas time. They're deep, they're experienced. I like their team. ... They're well-coached. They don't take bad shots. Their ball movement is really good. They're doing some different things defensively than they have in the past. Utah (against UCLA) ... went right down to the wire. That (final) shot didn't go in. If it goes in, they're probably talked about a little more."

Don't be surprised to see the Utes crack the Top 25 in the next poll, after tonight's win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Wolfpack are coming off arguably their worst two-game stretch of the season. Normally a hard-working team, Nevada got "out-toughed," to borrow coach Musselman's words. They played terribly in the second half against lowly Air Force and then followed it up by losing outright - for the second time this season - to Fresno State.  Nevada was outrebounded in those two games by a combined 72-49 margin. The Wolfpack were outscored in the paint by a combined 70-52 score. While this is still a talented, capable and well-coached team, a visit to Boise is NOT the place for them to get back on track. 

Nevada's recent rebounding woes figure to particularly hurt them here. That's because the Broncos are an excellent rebounding team, both on the offensive and defensive glass. In fact, they're the top rebounding team in the conference. 

While they did drop a game against New Mexico recently, the Broncos rarely lose here. In fact, only three teams have beaten them here over the past few seasons - and Nevada isn't one of them. The last two times these teams met here, the Broncos won by 19 and 32 points. 

The Broncos shook off the loss vs. New Mexico by recording a double-digit win at San Jose State. Note that they're 21-9 ATS the last 30 times that they were off a conference win. 

The Broncos are already 7-2 ATS when laying points this season. I believe they're catching the Wolfpack at the right time and I expect another win and cover this evening. *GOW

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN 10* BEST BET. I respect the Zips and succesfully backed them in their last game. However, I feel that the value lies the other way tonight. These teams faced each other a few weeks ago, at Akron. The Broncos gave the Zips a pretty good challenge, losing by seven, while listed as double-digit underdogs. They're a MUCH better team at home, too.

In fact, the Broncos arguably have the biggest home/road disparity in the league. They're 0-11 SU in road/neutral games but 6-1 when playing at home. (The lone home loss came by five points, when they were +6 point underdogs.) Meanwhile, Akron is only 2-3 SU in true road games and both victories came by fewer than five points. 

Western Michigan, which has already covered the spread against the likes of UCLA, Washington and Villanova, is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Akron, on the other hand, is just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 

The Broncos are 10-3 ATS the past 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. That includes a 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) record their past three times in that role. During the same stretch, Akron was only 2-4 ATS as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

With the Broncos at 14-5 ATS the last 19 (5-1 ATS L6) times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. While they've failed to cover a few recently, the Eagles are the currently the class of the Sun Belt. They're a perfect 6-0 in conference action. While they've been involved in a few close ones lately, this should be a good spot for them to break through with a big win. 

The Chanticleers are off a terrible effort last time out, losing by 20 at Georgia State. They're now just 1-6 in true road games. ALL six losses came by double-digits. While Coastal Carolina connects on only 37.2% of its field goals away from home, Georgia State hits 49.4% of its field goals at home, while keeping its guests below the 40% mark. 

With the Eagles outscoring opponents by an average score of 90 to 71.4 at home, the Chanticleers' road woes figure to continue for another day. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON 10* PERS FAV. Playing in the ACC is tough; the Tigers have just completed a difficult stretch which included Louisville, Virginia, UNC and Notre Dame. While the Hokies aren't slouches either, this is a game that the Tigers know that they need to take advantage of. Clemson is 4-2 ATS its last six when favored at home in the -3.5 to -6 range, 1-0 ATS this season. While the Hokies won last time out, that win came at home, against G-Tech. They're 0-2 SU/ATS off a conference win and only mediocre on the road. The Hokies won a close one at VT last season but the Tigers pounded them by 21 the last meeting here at Clemson. I expect homecourt to prove the difference once again. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO 10* CONF GAME OF YEAR. While they lost a couple of games here to begin the year, the Lobos have long been known for their homecourt advantage. Off back-to-back impressive road wins, I expect them to carry the positive momentum back to their home floor this evening. 

The Lobos have just accomplished something that no other team has done before, defeating San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State, all on the road, all in the same season. That's not something thats done by fluke. This is a very capable group of Lobos. They're going to have a ton of confidence entering today's game and will be hungry to keep the roll going. 

The Cowboys are off a road win of their own. However, that was their first road victory in conference play and it came against lowly San Jose State. This will mark the third time that the played two straight true road games. In each of the previous two instances, they lost the second of those b2b game by double-digits. 

While the Lobos are averaging 82 ppg their last five, the Cowboys are allowing 82.4 ppg their last five. 

New Mexico coach Craig Neal knows how important this game is and knows his team needs to take care of business at home. He commented: "Unfortunate that we didn't take care of the two home games. But I think our guys are in a good place." 

I also believe that Neal's crew, which is now 14-7 ATS its last 21 in January, is "in a good place." I expect them to put up a big number here with the Cowboys unable to keep up. *top Mountain West play

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 8* BLOWOUT. The Aggies, who advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, have admittedly  gotten off to a tough start this season. Thats partly due to a difficult schedule and partly due to losses suffered from last year's team. That said, I still believe that they're a little better than their record indicates and I expect them to be "ready to go" on Saturday afternoon. Off an upset loss last time out and knowing their next two games are on the road, the Aggies know that they can absolutely cannot afford another loss this afternoon. 

Prior to the Arkansas loss, a game they let get away, the Aggies won their previous home game (LSU) by 30 points. This is still a team which gave UCLA all it could handle earlier in the season. 

The Bulldogs have been tough at home but only mediocre on the road. Georgia coach Mark Fox noted this of the Aggies: "... I think they're way better than what their record shows. I do think they have a really good balance between inside and outside scoring ..."

While the visiting team has taken the last couple of meetings, I look for homecourt to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on AKRON 10* MAC GAME OF YEAR. These teams are both on top of their respective divisions. With a 15-3 overall record, Akron is #1 in the MAC East. At 12-6, Eastern Michigan is tied with NIU and Ball State for the top overall record in the MAC West. Playing at home, where they remain undefeated on the season, I expect the Zips to have the advantage here.

The Zips have yet to lose at home all season long. They dropped their opening road game of the season and have since proceeded to go 15-2, the only losses coming at Gonzaga and Creighton. As of this writing, those teams are a combined 35-1. So, there's no shame in those losses. At home, the Zips are outscoring teams by a commanding 83.8 to 63.7 average margin.

Going back further finds that Akron has actually won 26 straight games here, the third longest active streak in the country.

The Eagles have also been tough to beat on their home floor. However, they're only 4-5 when not playing at home, 3-5 in true road games. 

While the Zips allow only 63.7 ppg on their home floor, the Eagles allow more than 76 ppg on the road. 

While the Zips are 7-1-1 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -6 range, during the same stretch, the Eagles are 3-11 ATS (2-12 SU) when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 

All things considered, the number could easily be higher. Expect the Zips to continue their homecourt dominance. 

I'm playing on SANTA CLARA 10* BEST BET. The Broncos have been a profitable team when matched up against the Bulldogs in recent seasons. As per usual, Gonzaga has a strong team. The Bulldogs have been playing well, too. That said, I feel that this line will prove to be too high. Last time out, the Bulldogs blew out St. Mary's. As the Gaels have been the primary rival in the WCC for years, that could well be cause for a bit of an emotional letdown.

The Broncos aren't slouches and I expect them to be come ready to play. Santa Clara is off back-to-back road wins. In their last home game, the Broncos crushed Portland by a 70-42 margin. In fact, they've won each of their last four home games by double-digits. 

The Broncos have only lost one game by more than 15 points all season. That came on the road. All three of their home losses came by single-digits. They were +15-point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Bulldogs and lost by only two. I expect the Broncos to give them all they can handle, once again. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* MAIN EVENT. The Terps bring the higher ranking into tonight's game. However, I expect the Hawkeyes to be the team which finishes on top. Its true that they've had trouble away from home. However, the Hawkeyes have continued to play very well here. In their last home game, they knocked off a strong Purdue team. That brought them to a perfect 7-0 their last seven games here. That includes a 78-64 blowout of Iowa State, which happened to be ranked #25 at the time. 

The Terps, who are off a 62-56 win at Illinois, will be playing their second straight on the road. That marks the first time that they will have played consecutive true road games this season. Note that they're just 9-16 ATS their last 25 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game, 2-3 ATS in that situation so far this season. The last time that they allowed less than 60 points, also against Illinois, they proceeded to lose outright vs. Nebraska in their next game. 

Behind a big effort from senior guard Peter Jok, who took the blame for the NW loss, look for the Hawkeyes, who won by 16 the last time they hosted the Terps, to bounce back and continue their strong play at home for another day. 

 I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA 10* GOW. I won with the Panthers in their last game. That 79-60 blowout of Drake snapped an extended losing streak; I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's contest. Note that they're 29-4 SU the last 33 times that they were off a conference win. 

While the Ramblers have been impressive at home, they've only won two of their six true road games. That includes a 4-point loss at Drake, the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference. While they were favored for the Drake game, the Ramblers are also already 0-1 SU/ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, having lost at Toledo. 

On the other hand, the Panthers are an impressive 24-11 ATS (25-10 SU) the past 35 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.

The Panthers, who lost earlier this month at Loyola-Chicago, are also 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They're 39-9 SU the last 48 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M 10* ANNIHILATOR. This season's Razorbacks have yet to lose against a team from Texas. However, I expect that to change this evening. Admittedly, the Aggies didn't play too well last time out, turning the ball over far too many times. That was on the road though. Some of you may recall that I also played on the Aggies in their most recent home game, a 30-point destruction of LSU. This is a team, battle-tested against the likes of UCLA, which has been much better on its home floor. Arkanasas, which has long struggled away from home, has still only played three true road games, losing two of them. 

Last season's game at Arkansas was close, the Aggies winning by three. However, the game here at College Station resulted in a 23-point rout, the Aggies moving to 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a host in this series. 

As of this writing, the O/U line is 146.5, across the board. While that may well change throughout the course of the day, I mention it because the Aggies are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The LSU beating was the most recent. (During the same stretch, Arkansas was 9-15 ATS and 7-17 SU when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range.) Ultimately, look for homecourt to again prove the difference, the Aggies earning the win and cover.