Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Beavers are going to face an angry bunch of Buffaloes on Saturday. Not only is Colorado angry about blowing its last game, at Oregon, but the Buffaloes also haven't forgotten that the Beavers upset them, at Boulder, back on January 5th. At the time, the Buffs may have been in letdown mode, off a big win over Oregon. That sure won't be the case this time though. Colorado is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that it was off a loss. Off their previous three 2020 losses, the Buffaloes won by scores of 91-52, 78-56 and 78-57. Last season, the Beavers also won at Boulder. Then, in the rematch, the revenge-minded Buffaloes went to Oregon State and, laying -2.5, won by a score of 73-58. Expect more of the same. 

I'm playing on New Mexico/UNLV UNDER the total. The Rebels play at a relatively slow pace and they often have trouble scoring on the road. Last time away from Vegas, they scored only 54 at Fresno State. Really, their last game (at home vs. Nevada) they only finished above the number due to a lot of unncessary (in my opinion) trips to the line for both teams and the game going to OT. (I was at the game and thought there were an awful lot of ticky-tack fouls called early in both halves.) This number is high. Expect the final score to prove lowe than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SOUTH DAKOTA STATE. There's an obvious talent gap between these teams, as evidenced by their records and their places in the Summitt standings. The Pioneers are in last while the Jackrabbits are challenging for the top spot. The Jackrabbits have won seven straight in the series, winning by an average of 13 points. Tonight's margin of victory should be even greater. Denver has lost 11 straight on the road, getting outscored by an average of 82.2 to 66.7. Meanwhile, South Dakota State has won 13 straight at home, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 81.8 to 63.3. The Pioneers are 4-9 ATS their last 13 when attempting to avenge a loss and they're 1-4 ATS their last five when off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Jackrabbits have been money as home favorites all season long. No reason for them not to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way and win this one by 20+. 

I'm playing on Arizona State/Stanford OVER the total. A look at recent meetings between these teams reveals O/U lines of 149.5, 158.5, 158.5, 149 and 151.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower O/U number tonight; I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Those five games had combined scores of 186, 163, 167, 156 and 142. All five of those scores, of course, would have easily finished above tonight's low number today. Note that the OVER is 2-0 when ASU played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for the Cardinal, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off b2b road losses. ASU's last road game produced 170 points. Stanford's last game produced 155 points. With both teams scoring the entire way, look for this one to finish above the low number. 

I'm playing on UNLV. I won with Nevada when these teams faced each other at Reno a few weeks ago. I've included an excerpt from that writeup below. I noted that the Wolf Pack were in a good situation and that I liked that they were playing in Reno. Tonight's rematch, however, is at Thomas And Mack Center in Vegas and I fully expect that to favor the Rebels. Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS and 1-8 SU the past nine times it was a road underdog. The Rebels, on the other hand, are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites. They're also 4-1 ATS the past five times that they played with revenge. I say its "payback time" in Vegas, tonight.

Writeup on Nevada on 1/22. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this battle of instate rivals. Off a loss against SDSU, Nevada is going to be angry. The Wolfpack won last year's games by 17, at UNLV and by 19 here, at Nevada. They were favored by -16.5 points for that game. While the gap between the teams has absolutely narrowed, I don't believe its done so enough to warrant such a huge different in the pointspread. The Wolfpack are still 7-2 at home this season and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of -6 or less. They're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that role, dating back the past couple of years. During that span, the Pack are also 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 0-3 SU/ATS when off b2b double-digit conference wins. Nevada bounces back with an important win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Consider that the Cavaliers were 17-point favorites when they hosted the Irish last season. Needless to say, we're getting the Cavs at a far lower line here. While the gap between the teams has narrowed, I don't think its done so enough to warrant such a massive line swing. That said, I feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off a loss at Louisville, Virginia is going to be hungry. The Cavs are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a road loss. While the Cavs lost at Louisville, the Irish won at Clemson. Thats noteworthy as they're 0-6 ATS the past six times that they were off a conference road win. With the Irish also 3-8 ATS the past 11 times that they were off a win of six or fewer points, I'm laying the points with Virginia. 

I'm playing on TCU/Texas Tech OVER the total. This is quite a low O/U line and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Red Raiders have seen the OVER go 9-5-2 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. A closer look reveals that the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Red Raider home games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. Last season's visit by the Frogs had an O/U line of 132 and produced 149 points. They already had 70 by halftime. Sure, the Raiders are off b2b "defensive" victories, both of which stayed below the total. However, keep in mind that their previous three all finished above the total, each producing a minimum of 150 points. Also, note that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven, when Texas Tech had scored 30 or fewer first half points, in b2b games. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Golden Hurricane have had better results than the Knights the past few weeks overall. However, momentum is a funny thing. Tulsa saw its winning streak snapped with a loss at UConn last time out. Meanwhile, UCF checks in off a win against East Carolina. Expect that loss to take some wind from Tulsa's sails while the win will provide the Knights with some positive momentum. The home team has won four straight in this series. The Knights won by two here last season after winning by 18 here the previous year. Expect homecourt to prove the difference once again, the Knights covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SF/BYU UNDER the total. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, BYU led 54-40 with 16 minutes left. However, the Cougars collapsed and lost 83-82. I expect a much better defensive effort on their home floor this evening. In the last game,  San Francisco guard Khalil Shabazz came off the bench and scored 32 points (a career-high) shooting a perfect 10-for-10 from the floor that day. Thats not going to happen again. BYU's Childs said this of the earlier loss: "But I wouldn’t go back and change that loss because we’ve learned so much about the defensive end and the importance of it. Because we’re a good shooting team doesn’t mean we can go out and outshoot teams ..." The Dons scored only 48 points last game and the Cougars allowed only 54. All things considered, this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on UNLV. It wasn't long ago that the Rebels were alone in second place in the Mountain West. However, four straight losses have them in sixth. It should also have them extremely motivated for Saturday's game against Fresno State. Indeed, the Rebels need to take advantage of this winnable game. Keep in mind that the top five teams in the conference get a first-day-bye in next month's conference tournament. These teams played their conf. opener against each other. That one went to double-OT. Despite playing on the road and playing without two starting guards, the Rebels won that one. They're healthier now and playing at home. Expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Hokies have struggled of late. However, they know this is an opportunity to right the ship and they know that they need to take advantage. I expect them to do just that. The Hokies' current 4-game skip started with a loss at Boston College, against these same Eagles. Needless to say, they'll be itching for some payback. I expect them to put up a fairly big number today and I don't believe that the Eagles will have the offensive firepower to keep up. Note that Boston College is 4-12 SU when the opposing team scores 60 or more and 0-7 SU when the opposing team scores 74 or more. Prior to the 1/25 loss, the Hokies had won five straight meetings with the Eagles, three of those by double-digits. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on Kent. State/NIU OVER the total. These teams faced each other on 1/25. The O/U line was 135 and they combined for 145. I expect tonight's number, which is even lower, to also prove to be too low. Consider that the three previous times that these teams met (2018 and 2019) the O/U lines were 148.5, 146 and 150. While NIU games do average just 131 points, KSU games average a much higher 145.4. On the road, that number climbs to 145.6. Last time on the road, the Golden Flashes scored 83. Including the earlier result, Kent State has seen the OVER go 6-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Look for those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE. This is a huge game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Not only are they fighting to make the Sun Belt postseason but this is a team which absolutely embarrased them already this season. Coach Bob Marlin said. "We have had a good rivalry with Georgia State. They have had the upper-hand in that most of the time. This is one we need to get." While the Panthers are tough at home, they're 1-3 ATS (and SU) as road favorites. Note that LA-Lafayette, which has covered its last three overall, won 76-72 when these teams met here last season. The Cajuns, who won 81-60 last time they were on this floor, are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on PURDUE. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes are tough this year. Beating them will require the Boilermakers' very best effort. I believe thats what we'll get tonight. Purdue, which has battled inconsistency, badly needs to string together some wins, if it wants to get to the Big Dance. Remember, this Boilermaker team has beaten Virginia by a score of 69-40. They've beaten Michigan State by a score of 71-42 and they beat Wisconsin by a score of 70-51. Indeed, when this team is good, it can be really good. The Hawkeyes are just 6-16-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road underdogs, 7-20-1 ATS in road lined games overall. During that span, Purdue is 24-16 ATS (37-3 SU!) as a home favorite. Desperate for the victory, look for the "good Purdue" to show up, as homecourt proves the difference, the Boilers getting the win and cover. 

I'm playing on Ball State/Kent State OVER the total. I believe that this O/U number could easily be higher. When these teams last met, almost exactly one year ago, the O/U line was 151.5. They combined for 163. The previous two meetings both had O/U lines of 145. Those games produced 149 and 155 points. The one before that was the last meeting here at Kent State. That one had an O/U line of 147.5 and finished with 168. Indeed, these teams have a definite history of putting up some points, when facing each other. True, Ball State has been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Thats the reason we're working with such a low number. However, keep in mind that Kent State's last four games have all finished with at least 135. In fact, the Golden Flashes have seen 14 of their last 15 finish with 135 or more. The only exception was a 130-point game at WMU on 1/18. Their last 16 have all finished with at least 130. As for the Cards' recent low-scoring games, the OVER is 6-2-1 the last nine, 2-0-1 this season, when they were off b2b games where they scored 65 or less. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While its been a tough stretch, the Vols are going to battle hard until the final buzzer under Coach Barnes. Note that the Vols are 8-1 (SU) the past nine times that they were off a double-digit loss and they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four in that situation.  A win here would go a long way in turning their season around. I believe they're catching the Tide at the right time. Alabama is off b2b losses and its last win came by just three points. Last season's lone meeting was decided by just three points. I see this one also coming right down to the wire and am grabbing the points.

I'm playing on KANSAS. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Texas, the Longhorns may see some love from bettors here. Sure, Texas would love to avenge that loss. However, wanting to win and being able to win, are two entirely different matters. Indeed, if they couldn't beat the Jayhawks when playing at Texas, why should they be able to beat them here? Note that Texas is just 20-46 SU over the year, when attempting to avenge a home loss. That includes a 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) mark their past 10 in that situation. Sure, Texas is off b2b victories. However, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS this season, after winning their previous two (or more) games. The Jayhawks are off a 3-point win against Texas Tech, which wasn't enough to cover the spread. They're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS off a non-cover but SU win. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I really like the Panthers' chances of winning this one outright. After a slow start, the Panthers have won five of eight. This is a critical game for them if they want to compete with the top teams in the conference this season. While the Norse have been tough, this is their third straight on the road. Northern Kentucky does allow fewer points but the Wisc-Milwaukee scores considerably more at home than NKU does on the road. The Norse average 66.1 ppg on the road, the Panthers average 77.5 ppg at home. The Panthers are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs. Expect them to give their best effort and to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MONTANA. This will be the 300th time that these two instate rivals will have taken the court against each other. Needless to say, its an intense rivalry. The series has been remarkably close. Montana leads 151-148. Thats thanks to a sweep last year and 17 wins in the 18 meetings. Indeed, the Grizzlies have dominated in recent seasons. I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Former Montana State player Danny Sprinkle is coaching in the rivalry for the first time. He's done a pretty good job thus far, given what he has to work with, but I expect this game to prove to be a reality check. Sprinkle said his team would be more defensive minded this season and thats been the case. However, the Bobcats don't score enough to keep up with the Grizzlies. MSU averages 64.8 ppg in Big Sky action this season while Montana averages 74.2. The Grizzlies connect on 48.1 fg percentage, top in the conference. The Bobcats are 10th at 41%. Playing at home, expect the Grizzlies to be able to dictate the tempo and ultimately for the Bobcats to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on Louisville/NC State OVER the total. While they're also stingy defensively, the Cardinals are dangerous offensively. They scored 86 points last game and 80 in the game before that. On the season, they average more than 75. The Wolf Pack know that they're going to need to put up a fairly big number if they want to keep up. Note that four of Louisville's last five games have finished above the total. Yet, because NC State has been on an 'under' streak, we're still working with a reasonably low O/U line. Note that last season's lone game had an O/U line of 155 and finished with 161. In fact, the last three meetings have all had O/U lines in the 150s. Obviously, we're working with a much lower number here, providing plenty of line value. Look for the final score to prove higher than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Wright State/Wisc. Milwaukee UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. When these teams met at Wright State at the end of December, the O/U line was 146. That game snuck over the total with 152. However, the last meeting here at Milwaukee produced only 127 points, staying below the total of 137. In fact, before the 12/30 game, the previous 28 meetings between these teams ALL had O/U lines of less than 140. Needless to say, we're working with a much higher total here, providing excellent line value and plenty of room to work with. With Wright State off a big win over Northern Kentucky, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Raiders were off a win of 20 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 the last five times that the Panthers hosted a team with a winning road record. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. 

I'm playing on SIU - EDWARDSVILLE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Thursday card but that doesn't mean that it doesn't offer us value. The Governors have been on quite a roll and it should be easy for them to start patting themselves on the back. I believe the line has become inflated. Sure, the Cougars have lost nine straight in this series. However, those losses came by an average of 10 points, not 17. This is an experienced team led by its seniors. No team has beaten the Cougars by more than eight points since before Christmas. The Cougars are 12-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss. During that span, the Governors are 3-6 ATS when off two or more consecutive home wins. Look for this one to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NC-Wilmington/Towson UNDER the total. The Tigers are playing really well defensively right now and I expect the Seahawks to have real trouble scoring. After going on the road and holding William and Mary to 58, Towson has now allowed 61 or fewer points in three straight games. Thats five of their last six opponents which have scored less than 70; the other got 73. These teams met a few weeks ago, at UNC Wilmington. The O/U line was 132 and they combined for 127. That was when the Seahawks were at home and could score a little. (They still only got 60.) UNC Wilmington has trouble scoring on the road at the best of times, averaging just 61.7 ppg, on only 38.6% field goal shooting, in away games. Now, they're up against the stingiest team in the conference. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-0 the past five times that the Seahawks attempted to avenge a home loss. 

I'm playing on XAVIER. With Markus Howard leading the way, the Golden Eagles are certainly tough. They hammered the Musketeers, at Marquette, just two weeks ago. Tonight's rematch is at Xavier, however, and the revenge-minded Musketeers are absolutely desperate for the type of quality win which they can earn here. The Golden Eagles lost by four at Butler last time out. While that will have some quick to back them to bounce back, note that they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a loss of six or less. Most recently, off a 1-point loss against Providence, Marquette followed it up with a 6-point loss at Seton Hall. The Musketeers are 9-6 ATS (11-4 SU) the past 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on Utah State/Wyoming OVER the total. This is a low O/U line and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. A look at the past eight meetings between these teams reveals that all eight of those games had O/U lines of at least 135. The OVER is 7-2-1 the past 10 meetings. All 10 of those games produced a minimum of 126 points and nine of the 10 produced at least 135. (One of the two 'unders' was a game which had an O/U line of 149 and finished with 148.) Utah State road games average 141.1 points this season while Wyoming home games average 131.8. Look for the OVER to improve to 9-4 the past 2+ seasons when the Aggies were off b2b wins of 15 or more points. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. While its been a tough stretch for the Wolverines, this is an excellent spot to "get healthy." The Wolverines still outscore opposing teams by an average score of 76.6 to 69.6. The Huskers, on the other hand, get outscored by an average score of 75.2 to 72.3. Michigan has beaten Nebraska 10 of the last 11 meetings. The last two saw the Wolverines win by scores of 82-53 and 77-58. Its true that the Wolverines are off a tough 64-62 loss, their fourth straight, at the hands of the Illini. Its also true that they're a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a loss of six or fewer points. Enough's enough. Wolverines bounce back with a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on UNC/NC State OVER the total. Both teams have been profitable "under" teams so far this season. That has led to a relatively low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Consider that the last meeting between these instate rivals had an O/U line of 165. It finished with 209 points. The previous meeting had an O/U line of 173. It finished with 172. The three previous meetings? They had O/U lines of 161, 161 and 170. They finished with combined scores of 185, 186 and 170. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower total here. The UNC offense got going in a big way on Saturday, scoring 94 against Miami. Expect the Heels to carry that positive offensive momentum into tonight's game. With them doing so, it means the Wolfpack are going to need to put up a big number, in order to win. Expect the teams to combine for enough to exceed the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on IONA. The Hawks won by 12, when these teams met on Jan. 5th in West Long Branch. Playing at home, I expect the Gaels to get some payback this afternoon. In their last two home games, the Gaels have allowed 66 and 57 points. They're now a perfect 5-0 when allowing less than 70 points, but 0-9 when allowing 70 or more. Monmouth, meanwhile, is 0-5 when allowing 73 or more points. Thats noteworthy as Iona scored 81, 81, and 103 points in three 2019 meetings against the Hawks. I say that homecourt proves significant in this one and that the revenge-minded Gaels get some payback. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Huskies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes know that they've lost five straight to Washington and they're ready to settle the score. Since point guard Quade Green got ruled academically ineligible, the Huskies have gone 1-4. The Huskies have blown double-digit second half leads in b2b games. Last time out, they lost 67-66 at Utah, on Thursday. That was a game Washington led the entire way, up until the final 14 seconds. Those are the type of losses that really can take a toll. Off that loss, playing in elevation on the short-turn around against a talented and angry Colorado team, I expect Washington to lose by double-digits. 

I'm playing on Baylor/Florida UNDER the total. The Gators have been one of the SEC's top offensive teams. However, they haven't seen a defense like this one. The Gators get the bulk of their scoring from inside the arc. However, nothing comes easy inside against the Bears. They hold opposing teams to just 41.5% from inside the arc, the 7th best mark in the NCAA. Overall, the Bears allow just 58.5 ppg, which ranks 5th best in the country. While the Gators don't have those type of numbers, they have held two of their last three opponents to 55 or less. Off this season's previous losses, they allowed 60, 62, 51, 63 and 55. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. These teams both won on their homecourt when playing during the regular season last year. However, the Raiders haven't forgotten that the Norse knocked them out of the Horizon Finals. Indeed, they've had this game circled since the schedule came out. Both teams last played on 1/18. That amount of rest figures to favor the home team. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Norse are 4-10 ATS when playing with five or six day's worth of rest in between games. During the same span, the Raiders are 11-6 ATS when doing so. While they may not have covered (won by 7, when laying -11) I really liked the fact that the Raiders only turned the ball over six times in Saturday's win. That was tied for their fewest number of turnovers, against a Div. 1 team, since 2014. Note that the Norse score 66.7 ppg on the road compared to Wright State's 82.8 ppg at home. They're 9-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after failing to cover two or more consecutive games. Off three straight ATS losses, expect the Raiders to respond with a big win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Cougars are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes haven't played since getting blown out 75-54 on 1/18, at Arizona. The last time that they were off a loss? Laying -8.5 points, they won by 39! The Colorado/Utah trip is always tough and the front-end of it, in this case, is the most difficult. While the points may seem attractive, consider that the Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 point range. During the same span, the Buffaloes were 7-3 ATS when off a double-digit conference loss. Don't be surprised if tonight's game brings back some memories of last year's game here, when the (+11.5) Cougars lost by 32. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE / INDIANA OVER the total. These teams are both solid offensively and both are going to put up a decent number tonight. The Spartans average 78.3 ppg, while connecting on 46.3% of their field goals. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, average 75.1. At home, that number climbs to 81.4 ppg on the strength of a 48.5 field goal percentage. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that Indiana played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that includes a 3-1 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. I say this one proves higher scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Indiana State / Loyola Chicago OVER the total. These teams last met almost exactly a year ago. The O/U line was 127.5 and they combined for 142. I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. The Ramblers average 73.8 ppg and they should exceed that aveage this evening. Thats because the Sycamores have given up at least 77 points in five of their six true road games. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 5-1. Overall, when playing away from home, the Sycamores have seen their games average 148.7. As of this writing, the Ramblers are laying a "touchdown." Thats worth mentioning as the OVER is a healthy 9-5 the past couple of seasons when they've been home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish are 9-1 SU when laying points but only 4-5-1 at the betting window. Here, however, they're working with a small enough number that a SU victory will also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. Note that the Irish are 1-0 ATS As home favorites of six or less. The Irish have played four straight games as underdogs, a stretch which started with a game at Syracuse, against these same Orange. Notre Dame won that game, which has helped in keeping this number a little lower than it could have been, as many will be considering the revenge angle. However, in my opinion, if the Orange couldn't beat them at home, they're not going to be able to do so on the road. Cuse has been outscored 74.5 to 74.3 on the road. Notre Dame, on the other hand, outscores visiting teams by a 78.7 to 61.8 average score, here at home. Off b2b losses, the Irish bounced back to win at GT last time out. However, with a road game at FSU up next, they know they can't afford to let up. They're 3-0 SU/ATS after having lost two of their previous three games. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on Air Force / Utah State OVER the total. Playing at home on 1/7, the Falcons limited the Aggies to a mere 60 points. Air Force won that game 79-60. I think its safe to say that we can expect an entirely different result tonight. The Aggies average a whopping 87.8 ppg at home, connecting on a healthy 47.5% of their field goals here. They'll put up a big number here. The Falcons aren't just going to go away though. They may not get 79 again but they shouldn't be that far off. This is team which averages 76.7 ppg on the strength of 47.6% field goal shooting. Air Force has allowed 78 points in back-to-back games while Utah State has scored 80 or more in b2b games. The OVER is 3-0 when the Aggies were off a game as a road favorite and 3-1 the past four times that they attempted to avenge a road loss, in a game where they were favored. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back road losses, the Tigers are going to be in an angry mood. They already lost two in a row once in 2020 and they responded with a 16-point blowout win over Florida in their next game. The Tigers outscore visiting teams by a 73.7 to 55.4 margin at home. The Aggies get outscored by a 61.6 to 58.2 average score on the road. Missouri has covered six of nine at home (7-2 SU) including a 1-0 SU/ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to 9 range. While the Aggies are 5-48 SU over the years, when listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Tigers are 58-10 sU as home favorites in the same range. I absolutely expect them to improve on those numbers here, providing us the ATS victory along the way. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. While I lost with the Wildcats in their victory over UConn (they won, just not by enough) I'm comfortable coming back with them here. The Bulldogs are an ugly 9-17 ATS (8-19 SU) on the road the past 2+ seasons. They just lost by eight at home to Seton Hall and followed it up with a double-digit loss at Depaul. This is no place to "get healthy." Nova has dominated this rivalry including wins of 75-54 and 87-68 its last two as a host. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a home favorite of six or less. They're also 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a SU home win but non-cover, 15-6 ATS (19-2 SU) the past 21 times that they were off a SU win but non-cover overall. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on Texas/WVU OVER the total. Last season's games both had O/U lines in the low 140s. We're working with a considerably lower number here. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Though both teams are indeed pretty stingy, both have seen the OVER go 5-3 the past 2+ seasons, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points, through the first 15 games of the season.  While the Longhorns have been involved in a few low-scoring games of last, the same cannot really be said of the Mountaineers. Not their last couple, at least. They gave up 84 in a loss last time out and scored 81 in a win in their previous game. Overall, the Mountaineers score an average of 79 points at home, while connecting on 47% of their field goals. Visiting teams have averaged 60.4. I think the Mountaineers at least come close to their average but I don't think the Longhorns will just go away. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. After winning with the Wildcats several times earlier, they've cost me lately. I'm going to give them another chance today, however, as this is a team which they should hammer. While the points might look tempting, consider that Fordam is 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the past seven times it was a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9.5 range. Going back further finds it at just 10-23-1 ATS (4-30 SU!) in that situation. Indeed, being a home underdog in this range has not been kind to the Rams. A look at recent meetings shows that Davidson has won by 25, 10, 24, 30 and 18. All double-digit wins. Expect another this afternoon. 

I'm playing on BYU/Gonzaga UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Note that the UNDER is aprofitable 15-5 the last 20 times that these teams faced each other, 5-2 since 2017. While they've had some success here in the past, the Cougars are going to have some trouble scoring tonight, as they're without leading scorer (and rebounder) Yoeli Childs. Over their past three games, the Bulldogs have allowed 54, 62 and 50 points. The last time that the Cougars faced a team of this calibre, was at the Maui Invitational, when they faced Kansas. They lost 71-56. Without Childs, the Cougars know they're going to need to play their best defensive game to have a chance. This is a team which rang in the new year by allowing 38 points. Three of Gonzaga's last four games have produced less than 150. I believe that this one will too. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Saturday board but that doesn't mean that it isn't one of the strongest. While Oakland has had success here of late, Milwaukee opened as the favorite for a reason. While they came up short, the Panthers scored 84 points last time out. In their previous game, the Panthers scored 87. They've scored 70 or more in four of their past five and they average 73.3 ppg on the season. Thats significant as Oakland is 0-7 on the season when it allows 72 or more points. Overall, the Golden Grizzlies have won just three of their past 13 games. They have yet to defeat a team which currently ranks better than 194th in the "KenPom" rankings. Of course, its tough to win games when you average only 64.3 ppg. That ranks 323rd in the country! They don't shoot well at all from outside and they don't help themselves by making just 68% of their free throws. Even off a loss, Milwaukee, which has faced the likes of Wisconsin and Kansas, has won three of four. Playing at home, I expect the Panthers to be able to push/dictate the tempo, score 70+ points and ultimately, for the offensively-challenged Grizzlies to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on SIENA. The Golden Griffins are likely going to be a popular play here. After all, they lost by just one at Siena earlier and they've had success against the Saints at this venue. That said, I personally believe the Saints are the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that fact this evening. Siena lost by 12 at Manhattan last time out, a game they were trailing by 17 at halftime. Thats noteworthy as the Saints are a perfect 5-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after trailing by 15 or more at halftime of their previous game. The Saints are scoring 72.9 ppg overall this season and 71 ppg in conference action. The Golden Griffins, on the other hand, are averaging just 63.6 ppg in conference play, connecting on 40.1 % of their field goals. Opposing conf. teams are hitting 46.4% of theirs. Look for Siena's superior offense to prove the difference, as the Saints break out the broom and sweep the season series. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Huskies are going to be in an angry mood. Note that both losses came on the road. The last time that the Huskies lost two in a row? Laying -4 points, they bounced back and crushed USC by a 72-40 score. Including that result, they're 5-1 (4-1 ATS) the past six times that they were off b2b losses. While they did upset Arizona last time out, the Beavers have dropped two of their last three on the road. They're just 7-14 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Going back further reveals that they're also 7-14 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. The Huskies took both meetings last season. Look for them to bounce back and improve to 15-5 their last 20 games in January, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Creighton checks in with the higher ranking but I believe that Georgetown opened as the slight favorite for good reason. Having lost three of their last four, the Hoyas are going to be highly motivated. Note that all three of those losses came on the road. Also, note that they're 9-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having dropped three of their previous four. While Creighton gets outscored by a 71.6 to 64.4 margin on the road, Georgetown is outscoring teams by a 82.4 to 70.6 average score here at home. Creighton may have scored the minor upset at Xavier but it is still just 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons, as a road underdog or pick'em. During that span, the Bluejays are also only 4-8 ATS when off a double-digit conference win. The Bluejays have had their way in this series of late but that changes Wednesday. Look for the hungry Hoyas to get some payback. 

I'm playing on TCU/WVU OVER the total. The last time that these teams met, the O/U line was 148.5. They combined for 200 points! We're working with a much lower number here and I believe it'll prove to be too low. Sure, that 200-point game did go to triple-OT. However, the previous meeting also produced 165 points (O/U line of 145) and all of those came in regulation. The last four meetings have all produced a minimum of 148. This season, TCU games are averaging 131.9 points. WVU games are averaging 131.4 overall. However, Mountaineer home games are averaging a much higher 140.7. As of this writing, WVU is favored by eight or 8.5 points. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 10-4 the past 2+ seasons when the Mountaineers were home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range, 2-0 already this season. Expect those stats to improve Tuesday evening. 

I'm playing on Northern Kentucky / Illinois-Chicago OVER the total. The Norse have been profitable for "under" bettors on the road this season. However, their last one went 'over,' as they scored 75 at Oakland. I expect this evening's game to do the same. The Flames have seen their last five games average 139.2 points. Each of their last three home games has produced at least 134. Last season's game here finished with 136 but that one had a much higher O/U line (146.5) than what we're working with here. Going back further finds that the last six meetings have all had O/U lines of at least 145. With this one in the 130s, note that the Flames have seen the OVER go 8-3 the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Both teams come in hoping to win this one and I expect both to keep on scoring the whole way. Look for the final combined score to finish above the low number. 

I'm playing on SIENA. The Saints have been winning and playing well. Just not covering. I expect that to change tonight. Last time out, the Saints lost at Rider. However, they'd won their previous four. One of those games even got featured on SportsCenter's "Bad Beats," as the final meaningless Holy Cross basket came in the final seconds causing the Saints to win by 12, as 13-point favorites. Those recent ATS losses have worked in our favor though, in terms of line value, as the Saints could easily be laying double-digits for this matchup. Homecourt has meant a lot in this series in recent seasons; Siena has beaten St. Peter's four straight times here at Times Union Center. In last year's meeting here, the Saints were laying -7 and won by 10. Overall, the Saints have won their last six home games, outscoring teams by an average of 79.5 to 70.3. Led by their trio of seiniors (Jalen Pickett, Manny Camper and Elijah Burns) look for the Saints to continue their homecourt dominance of the Peacocks, this time, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Both these teams are seeking their first conference win. The Rams may be the favorite but I firmly believe that the Wildcats are the superior team. Keep in mind that Davidson essentially returned everyone from last year's team. That same team handled Rhode Island with relative ease. The Wildcats beat the Rams by 15, at Davidson. Then, they beat them by nine, here at Rhode Island. Yes, Davidson has dealt with some injury issues but it has also played an extremely tough schedule. Off b2b losses, like their hosts, the Cats are going to be highly motivated. Note that Davidson is perfect (2-0 SU/ATS) the past couple of seasons, when coming off b2b road losses. Over the years, Davidson is a dominant 46-16 SU when off a conference road loss. As for the Rams, they're just 2-6 ATS in the favorite role this season. They were favored in each of their last two games and lost both outright. While I'm happy to grab the points, I expect an outright win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window, which has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonably low. They've now failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games, a streak dating back to 11/25. I successfully played on them in the lone ATS win though (while avoiding them in all 8 losses) and I feel that this will be another strong spot to back them. If you looked at those games, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams won by 18 while laying 19. Previously, some of the other ATS losses included: laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. This afternoon's number is relatively small though. This is a George Mason team that the Rams beat by 16 and 35 points last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While its been a tough start at the betting window, I believe that a date vs. the instate rival Hokies will bring out the best in the Cavaliers. The last time that these teams met here, the Cavs were laying -7.5 points. They were already up 44-22 by the break and won by a score of 82-59. While the Hokies allowed a mere 37 points last time out, that was against lowly MD-East Shore. Note that they're just 2-7 ATS the past nine times that they allowed 50 or fewer points in their previous game, 0-2 ATS already this season. The Cavs were a dominant 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS the past two Januarys. Expect them to improve on those stats as they start the new year with another win and cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I believe that we can expect the Cougars to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Thats because they haven't forgotten that the Knights came in here last season, when Houston had a 27-1 record (best in the nation) and the longest home winning streak in the country, and upset the Cougars. Some called it the biggest win in UCF history. The Knights were helped considerbly by a double-double from Tacko Fall in that game. As you probably know, he's since moved on. Off b2b losses, the Knights just lost by 16 against Temple. Houston, on the other hand, is rolling. The Cougars are 4-0 SU/ATS  their past four. Three of those were on the road; the lone home game saw them win by 20 as an -11.5 point favorite. Motivated by last year's loss, expect the Cougars to keep on rolling for another day, pulling away for a one-sided blowout win. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road.  Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after scoring the minor upset here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I expect homecourt to prove the difference in this one. The Bearcats come in rested and hungry. They're 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Huskies are just 3-6 ATS the past couple of seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points and that includes a 1-8 SU record. While UConn has won three straight, those games came against the likes of St. Peters, New Hampshire and NJ Tech. Its also worth noting that the Huskies are just 1-5 SU/ATS the past six times that they'd won their previous three. Expect the Bearcats to take this one, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. These teams split a pair of meetings last season. Favored by 4.5 points, the Bullogs won by nine, on their home floor. The Red Storm returned the favor with a 4-point home win, as a 4-point favorite. Tonight, however, the Red Storm are getting points, rather than laying them. While I respect Butler, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that St. John's knocked off Arizona, on the road, last time out. (An outright win as a double-digit underdog.) This is a team which is playing its best and which hasn't lost in weeks. The Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. During the same span, the Red Storm were 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a upset win, as a double-digit underdog. Expect AT LEAST another cover this evening. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I've fared very well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I feel that this is another team that they match up very well against. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season, 0-18 within its conference. The Commodores entered this season with just 10 eligible scholarship players. One of them, senior forward Clevon Brown, is out. Another (Obinna) is questionable. The Wildcats, who are playing their best basketball of the season with three consecutive SU/ATS wins, are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were a road favorite (or pick'em) of three or less. Davidson is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it had scored 25 or less in the first half of its previous game. Expect a road win. 

I'm playing on VCU. The Rams have had a tough run at the betting window. They've now failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, a streak dating back to 11/25. If you looked at those games, however, you'd see that they were extremely close to covering in the majority of them. Last time out, the Rams lost by 10, as 5-point underdogs against Wichita State. That should have them in an angry mood here. Prior to that, laying -5.5, they won by five. Laying -11,5, they won by 10. Laying -13.5, they won by 12. They were 2-point underdogs (facing Purdue and Tennessee) in each of the two games before those three. Both resulted in 3-point losses. Enough is enough. The Rams are stepping down in class here and they're going to be ready to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Greyhounds have been on a nice roll but they haven't faced a defense like this one; the Rams force opposing teams to commit turnovers on 27.7% of their plays. Thats fourth best in the country. Expect a determined effort to lead to a blowout. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/FIU UNDER the total. I believe that this total is generously high. The Gophers, who held OSU to 66 points last time out, will be without starting guard Payton Willis. That takes away from their offense. The Gophers have faced some quality teams of late including #3 Ohio State. Yet, they've allowed 73 or fewer points in every single game, an average of 64.8. FIU arguably hasn't faced a defense this good. The Panthers have been underdogs twice and both those games fell below the total. Going back further finds the UNDER at 5-1 the past six times they were getting points, 12-6 the past 18. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Houston/Washington UNDER the total. Both teams advanced to this evening's final courtesy of stingy defense. Houston held Portland to 56 and Georgia Tech to 59. Washington limited Ball State to 64 and Hawaii to 61. Those games came on the heels of holding Seattle to 59. Both teams have been profitable for 'under' bettors overall the past couple of seasons. Washington has seen the 'under' go 48-32, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 44-34 in Houston games, a 12-5 'under' mark when those games were played on a neutral affair. Expect a physical, defensive affair. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs just earned a hard-fought double-OT win over a tough SMU team. Had they lost that game, I wouldn't like them in this one. However, having pulled it out, I believe it'll prove to be the type of victory that they can build momentum from. Now, they step down in class, against an instate "rival," and I believe they're ready to deliver a blowout. In addition to SMU, Georgia has faced the likes of Michigan State, Dayton and Ariizona State. The Eagles, who lose Tookie Brown from last year, have faced Auburn and Bradley, as their toughest opponents. They lost those two games by 39 combined points. Even North Dakota beat them by a dozen. Even after failing to cover against the Mustangs, the Bulldogs are a healthy 10-4 ATS in December games the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion here. 

I'm playing on SMU/Georgia UNDER the total. Both teams have had a break between games, a much longer one for the Mustangs. Thats noteworthy as the 'under' has been money over the years when they've been on a break of more than seven days. Some early offensive rust won't surprise. Either way, this is a generously high number. Georgia only scored 59 last time out, after allowing only 59 in its previous game. SMU got beat up by Georgetown last game, way back on 12/7, but prior to that has allowed 58 or less in three straight. The Bulldogs are a talented team but they're also young. They're probably going to be better by Feb/March. Right now, they're still missing a lot of scoring from last season. While Georgia games have been higher scoring, those have come primarily against weak teams. They have played some relatively lower scoring games against quality teams (ASU, Dayton) and SMU road games have averaged just 128. In what should be a good game, look for the final score to stay beneath the number. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Cougars' slow start, compared to last season, isn't that surprising. After all, they lost four seniors from last year's 33-win team that went to the Sweet 16. However, there's still plenty of talent here and they're fairly heavy favorites here for good reason. While Houston has faced quality programs like BYU, Oregon, South Carolina and Oklahoma State, UTEP's toughest opponent has arguably been New Mexico State. They did beat UC-Irvine last time out but previous wins has come against lightweights like NC AT&T and Ark-Pine Bluff. UTEP is still just 2-20 SU in lined road games the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cougars are 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE. This is a big line and I believe that it will prove to be too big. The Blue Demons lost a few key seniors from last season's team, two of them 5th year seniors. Despite those losses, they've been able to get off to a strong start. However, they dropped their first game last time out and I believe that the leadership lost with those seniors will show itself here. Off that loss, its going to be tough for this young team to bounce back and cover this big a number on the road. With a Big Ten team (Northwestern) on deck, followed by Big East play, it'll be easy to look past a team like Clev. State. The Vikings have won two of their last three here though, the loss coming by 15. Keep in mind that Depaul only beat this team by 10, at Chicago, last season. Playing at Cleveland, look for the Vikings to present a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Purdue/Ohio OVER the total. Purdue has largely been an 'under' team so far this season. Thats led to a very low O/U line for this game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Consider that when these teams met last season the O/U line was 147.5. Even that wasn't enough, as the teams combined for 162. The Boilermakers put up 95 in that one and should put up a relatively big number once again. While the Purdue defense is indeed stingy, its not quite as tough on the road. The Bobcats are averaging 87.5 ppg on their home floor. The OVER is 3-1 the past couple of seasons when the Boilermakers were off a road loss and 4-1 when they'd scored 25 or less in the first half of their previous game. During that span, the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 5-1 when off a home blowout win of 20 or more. Look for those stats to improve Tuesday. 

I'm playing on Valparaiso/Charlotte UNDER the total. The 49ers have seen their last four games finish above the total. I expect that streak to come to an end this evening. A look at the 49ers' last three 'overs' shows that those games finished above the total by 1.5, 1.5 and 2.5 points. In other words, all three could have easily stayed below the total. Now, they'll host a Crusader team which as seen the UNDER go a lucrative 17-8 their last 25 as a road underdog. During that span, Valpo has also seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. Last time out, the Crusaders won 77-55 and the UNDER is 5-1 the past 2+ seasons when the Crusaders had scored 75 or more in three straight games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I won with the Wildcats in their last game, mentioning that this was a very talented team. (Full excerpt below, if interested.) Laying about 20, they won by 50. While this is, of course, a far tougher opponent, I expect the Cats to carry the positive momemtum forward into this game. These teams met, at Gonzaga, last November. Playing on their homecourt, the Bulldogs blew out the Wildcats. Needless to say, Arizona hasn't forgotten. Gonzaga, 2-3 ATS the past five times it was getting points, hasn't been an underdog yet this season. This will be its toughest game. The Bulldogs will be playing the second of b2b road games; they're 0-1 ATS in that situation this season and they're 8-12 ATS their last 20 when off a road win. Lay the short number with the talented and motivated home team. 

Writeup from Arizona's last game: The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on GEORGETOWN. Its been a tough start at the betting window for the Hoyas, here at home. However, I expect a visit from their hated longtime rivals to bring out their best. Indeed, the bad blood between these teams goes back a long time. The Orange won by seven here two seasons ago and they won by one (as -9.5 point favorites) at Syracuse last season. This is a far less experienced Syracuse team though, providing the Hoyas with the perfect opportunity to break through with an important win and cover. The Orange, who hammered G-Tech last time out, are just 3-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 0-3 SU/ATS when off a conference win of 20 or more points. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset win of 15 or more, as a road underdog and 2-0 SU/ATS off two or more consec. wins as a road underdog. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on Colorado/CSU UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game (86-80) against each other last season, at Colorado. A closer look shows that it really wasn't that high-scoring until they got a ton of points in the final minutes. They were still at 70-59 with six minutes to go. The previous season, here at Colorado State, the game was lower-scoring; the rivals combining for 135 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Rams have only managed 57, 64 and 72 points their last three. Now, they'll face a Colorado team which allows just 60.6 ppg. The Buffaloes need to be good defensively as they only average 68.6 ppg and that number dips to 66.5 on the road. Including the previously mentioned game here two seasons ago, the UNDER is 19-8 the Buffs last 27 road games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Iowa/Iowa State UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' in the Cyclones' last game and I feel that tonight's O/U line will again prove to be too high. This is a more defensive Iowa State team than the Hawkeyes will remember from last season, yet we're working with a higher number than these teams had for last year, or the year before. The Cyclones have allowed 66 and 61 their last two games and they've seen the UNDER go 3-1-1 at home on the season. They've only hit the 80-point mark once on offense in their past eight games. As for the Hawkeyes, they held Minnesota to a mere 52 points last time out, the final score staying below the total by more than 20 points. They've now seen five of their last seven stay beneath the number. The Under has been money over the years when Iowa was off a Big Ten win of 20 or more. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Mavericks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Though they haven't covered of late, this is a very talented Arizona team, arguably more so than in recent seasons. Here, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood, after having lost to Baylor. This team hadn't previously tasted defeat and will be looking to put the hurt on someone. the Mavericks figure to be the perfect opponent. Not only are they severely outmatched athletically and from a talent-perspective, but they're at the end their longest road stretch of the season. They've been putting on some serious travel miles and it figures to catch up and take a toll on them tonight. Look for the angry Wildcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, blowing their road weary guests out of the building. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I mentioned when I backed them last time that the Wildcats are better than their record indicates. Indeed, this is a very strong and experienced team. I've done well in picking my spots with the Wildcats and I believe they're going to lay a beating on this overmatched opponent. While the Wildcats are a very experienced team, the Eagles are a very inexperienced one. They brought back only one starter and only four players appeared in more than 12 games. Indeed, this is a mismatch and with tougher games on deck, Davidson will look to continue to build positive momentum by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After a slow start out of the gate, the Gophers are playing much better basketball than they were to start the season. A 78-60 win over Clemson last time out brought them to 3-1 SU their last four and 4-1 ATS their last five. Its important to note that their four losses this season all came by single digits, the last two by five or less. Speaking of close games, the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by five or less. The Gophers won 92-87 last January and 86-82 the previous February. While the Gophers are well-rested, the Hawkeyes have been playing a lot of basketball lately. Having played three straight away from home, losing two of them and dealing with some bumps and bruises, the tough schedule could be taking a toll. Expect the Gophers to give them all they can handle, en route to AT LEAST the ATS win. 

I'm playing on Seton Hall / Iowa State to finish UNDER the total. These teams met less than two weeks ago at the Battle for Atlantis. Behind a big game from Myles Powell, the Pirates won 84-76. That high score has led to a higher O/U number for Sunday's rematch. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cyclones have had a first hand look at Powell now and I expect them to be more ready for him. As coach Steve Prohm noted: "We've got to be locked in on him at all times …" The entire Cyclone team will be ready for him and will be doing their best to keep the ball out of his hands, and as senior Prentiss Nixon noted, to "make the game as physical as possible." Prohm, who emphasized and preached improved defense in the offseason added: "We're going to have a new plan …" Look for the Cyclones' "new plan" to lead to a lower-scoring rematch, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Huskies are a mostly experienced and well-coached team. However, they've played a fairly soft schedule thus far and therefore the loss of their leader (Pusica) hasn't really caught up with. Davidson, has played a much tougher schedule and is a far stronger team that its record shows. I believe the Wildcats, also experienced and well-coached, have a considerable edge in talent. Yet, due to the records (and venue) we're not having to lay a big number with the superior team. Expect the cream to rise to the top, talented and determined Davidson getting it done. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. Its another "all Bulldog" matchup here. Once again, I'm going with the Bulldogs from LA Tech. Some will recall that I backed LA Tech against the Samford Bulldogs last time out. LA Tech won by 22, covering by double-digits. Off that win, confidence will be sky high. Other than Villanova, which beat Miss. State, this is the toughest team, in my opinion, that Miss. State will have faced. While Miss. State is a good team, I feel it could get caught looking ahead to a big game at K-State, next up on its schedule. Note that LA Tech is 2-0 ATS against the SEC the past couple of seasons while MSU is 0-2 ATS against Conf. USA. I mentioned in the win over Samford that LA Tech brought back four starters from last season. An experienced team, look for them to give their hosts a tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on UNC. The Buckeyes are off to a great start. However, they're playing at a very difficult venue and I expect the talented Tar Heels to bring them down to earth this evening. The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. During that span, the Heels are 4-1 SU/ATS as home favorites of six or less. While the Buckeyes scored 90 points last time out, it should be kept in mind that the opponent was Morgan State. Also, they're just 8-13 ATS the past couple of seasons, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. Expect homecourt to prove the difference, the ACC getting the better of the Big Ten in this one. 

I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN. The Eagles struggled last time out. Now at home, facing a Valparaiso team I feel they match up well against, I expect them to bounce back. While they only managed 56 points last time out, note that the Eagles are 10-4 ATS, the past couple of seasons, after having scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 SU/ATS after having scored 60 or less in b2b games. They've also responded well to double-digit losses, going 11-5 (9-5 ATS) in that situation the past couple of seasons. While the Crusaders have fared well when they don't turn the ball over, they're 0-3 when turning the ball over more than 14 times. (The Eagles force an average of 21.4 turnovers.) The Crusaders are just 3-7-2 ATS (2-10 SU) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of six or fewer points. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on Clemson/Minnesota OVER the total. The Gophers have been an 'under' team this season which has led to a low number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Gophers are small favorites in this one, -3 at most shops, as of this writing. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that they were home favorites (or pick'em) of six or fewer points. Last time out, listed as -4 point favorites, the Gophers lost 73-68 against Depaul. The Tigers have seen four of their last five games produce a minimum of 138 points. I believe this one will too. Look for the OVER to improve to 8-2 the past 10 times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on St. Bonaventure/SD OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Its important to note that both teams are missing key defenders, out with injury. For the Bonnies, Osunosunniyi remains out. For the Toreros, Yauhen Massalski is out. These guys both are difference makers on the defensive end. Massalski is a 6-10 (230+ pound) Belarusian who protects the rim and led the team in both blocks (he was #3 in the WCC with 49) and rebounds. Osunosunniyi, meanwhile, also 6-10, had nearly twice that many blocks. His 92 rejections ranked #6 in the country, his coach stating: "he's reason our defense was so good last year." Take these key big men out of the equation and this one finds its way above the low number. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. While both teams brought back four of five starters from last season, I believe that the LA Tech Bulldogs are a considerably better team and I expect them to show it here. The LA Tech defense forces a lot of turnovers and Samford has had real trouble on the road, going 0-4 SU/ATS. Samford has been outscored in those games by an average of 83 to 70.2. LA Tech, on the other hand, has outscored teams by an 85.3 to 52 margin here at home. Off a loss last time out, LA Tech will look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. After its previous loss, LA Tech won its next game by 33. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. Two solid teams squaring off in Vegas. I like the experience and depth that the BlueJays, which brought back five of last season's top six scorers, bring to the table. Note that they're 4-0 all-time at Orleans Arena, beating the likes of Wisconsin (84-74) and Arizona State (87-73) in 2012; as well as Fresno State (84-65) and DePaul (83-75) in 2008. I say that the BlueJays continue their success here, improving to 65-35 their last 100 non-conference games, while handing the Aztecs their first loss. 

I'm playing on Davidson/Marquette UNDER the total. Both these teams can be very stingy. Marquette held Purdue to 55 in a game. Davidson kept UNC-Wilmington to 49. Over the past couple of seasons, both have seen the majority of their games, at neutral sites, finish below the total. The Wildcats find themselves underdogs for the second time this season. The first time (Auburn) they were underdogs, the game stayed below the total. That brings the UNDER go 10-4 the past 2+ seasons, when Davidson has been in the underdog role. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on St. Bonaventure and Mercer to finish OVER the total. The Bears have seen their games average 160.4 points. They average 80.2 ppg themselves and also allow 80.2. On the road, however, they're allowing a whopping 91.7 ppg and a 50.3 field goal percentage. Note that the OVER is 3-1 the past four times Mercer was a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range and that the OVER is 6-3 the past nine times that the Bears played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. While the Bonnies' games have been considerably lower-scoring than Mercer's games, it should be noted that they played with Osun Osunniyi, a major defensive presence, the first couple of games. Osunniyi is out now and the Bonnies aren't as good defensively without him. This is a team they'll be able to put up a big number against though. Off an upset loss at Canisius, look for the OVER to improve to 4-1 the past five times that the Bonnies were off an upset road loss. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. The Huskies are a much deeper and more experienced than Oakland. The Grizzlies were supposed to be a really experienced team but they lost six players in the offseason, players that were expected to come back, including the team's starting backcourt. That's going to catch up with them against German and co. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS off a road win the past couple of seasons, 2-0 ATS off b2b road wins. Expect them to pull away for the win and cover, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 

I'm playing on Long Beach State and Arizona to finish OVER the total. The 49ers prepared for this game by crushing Fresno Pacific. Having scored 93 points, their offense is coming in confident. While the Wildcats managed only 71 points last time out, they'd scored 83, 87, 90 and 91 in their previous four games. Note that the Wildcats scored 91 when they faced the 49ers in November of 2017. That game had an O/U line of 157 but we're working with a considerably lower number here. Thats noteworthy as the 49ers have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Its true that Arizona is allowing only 55 ppg. However, its also true that the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that CSULB faced a team which was allowing 64 or fewer points per game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting.  

I'm playing on UNLV/SMU OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. In what should be a competitive game, I believe it'll prove to be too low. SMU has scored 74 or more points in three of its four games. The Rebels have alternated between scoring a lot and scoring a little (86, 56, 75, 54, 72, 57) but they're off a low-scoring game. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-3 their last 10 off an upset loss. During that span, the OVER is also 19-9 when the Rebels were off a loss overall. Both teams should exceed 60 which is all we're going to need. Go with the OVER. 

I'm playing on WF/Davidson UNDER the total. I won with the Wildcats in each of their last two games. I still really like them as a team. However, I feel that the secret is out and people are realizing how good they are. In other words, the line value isn't what it was the past couple of games. I do, however, feel that there's still plenty of value with tonight's total. The Wildcats showed how stingy they can be in holding UNC Wilmington to 49 points. Wake Forest scored just 65 last time out, while allowing just 67. New assistant coach Rex Walters is a defensive specialist. Look for the UNDER to improve to 4-1 Davidson's last five games against teams from the ACC.

I'm playing on Minnesota/Central Michigan OVER the total. The Gophers have seen each of their first four games fall below the number. That changes tonight. Underdogs the last three times on the floor, Pitino's team has had a difficult early schedule. They've got some very capable shooters on this team though, arguably more so than last season. Back home and facing a CMU team which has topped the 100-mark in three of four games, we're going to see plenty of scoring. The Chippewas can hit from beyond the arc and are great at getting to the line. The O/U line could easily be higher but the Gophers' early results have worked in our favor by keeping it down. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. 

I'm playing on Missouri/Morehead State OVER the total. When these teams met last season, at Missouri, the O/U line was 139. They ended up combining for 136. This evening, we're working with a lower O/U number and I feel thats providing plenty of value. Morehead State had trouble scoring last year but I expect some more points out of the Eagles in this one. They've scored 76 or more in all four games and are averaging 83.7 ppg. While the opposition was admittedly very weak, it still helps to give the shooters confidence. They've hit 51% of their field goals. Jordan Walker has led the team in scoring each of the past two seasons and he's back and doing so again. Of course, Missouri has plenty of advantages and should put up a big number of its own. The Tigers had 45 by halfitme in last year's game and would have finished with more than 75 if it hadn't been a blowout out of the gate. The Eagles, who are 19 point underdogs as I write this, have seen the OVER go a perfect 3-0 the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the 18.5 to 24 range. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on New Mexico/Utep OVER the total. Given the pace that the Lobos are playing at, I believe this O/U line is too low. New Mexico has scored 90 or more points in all four of its games. The Lobos also allowed 70 or more in all four games. Overall, the Lobos are averaging 93 ppg, while allowing an average of 74.7. Utep checks in averaging 76.7 ppg of its own. Consider that the O/U line was 155 when these teams met last season. Yet, they combined for 162. The previous year, the O/U line was 146 but the teams combined for 164. The year before that? The O/U line was just 138 but they already had 86 by halftime and ultimately combined for 165. While this is their first game on the road this season, its worth noting that the OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past 2+ seasons, when the Lobos played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. With both teams putting up a good number, expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I won with the Wildcats in their last game. I noted that they were a very talented and experienced that was looking to explode, after a poor start. They did exactly that, destroying UNC-Wilmington. Nevada is probably a bit stronger than the Seahawks but is still a team that Davidson will be able to handle. I expect Davidson to carry its positive momentum to be carried forward. Note that the Wolfpack are off a double-digit loss and that they'll now be playing their first game on the road. While the Wildcats brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, the Wolfpack lost their entire starting lineup. They've got a new coach with a fairly big name (Alford) but he got a late start in recruiting and two of the players he signed are Div 1 transfers and have to sit out a season. In other words, Davidson has a vast edge in experience and depth. Expect it be to evident tonight as the Wildcats deliver another blowout. 

I'm playing on Kentucky/Utah Valley OVER the total. These teams have both been profitable for 'under' bettors so far this season. Those early results have helped us by keeping this O/U line a bit lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both teams lost considerable offensive production from last season. So, its not shocking that their scores have been a bit low thus far. Speaking of shocking, in case you didn't hear, the Wildcats lost against Evansville last time out. That'll have them in an angry mood here and they'll look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. Remember, prior to the Evansville loss, the Cats scored 91 points. So, this is still a team fully capable of putting up a big number. Likewise with Utah Valley. While the competition was obviously pretty weak, the Wolverines are only a game removed from hitting triple-digits. Look for the Wildcats to put up a big number and for the Wolverines to add enough, to send this final score above the low number.

I'm playing on Seton Hall / St. Louis UNDER the total. These teams met on this very day last season. The O/U line for that 11/17/18 game was 134. They had 61 at halftime and finished with 130. Today, thanks to some early high-scoring results, we're working with a more generous O/U line and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Over the years, the Pirates have seen the UNDER go 30-18 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. During the same span, the UNDER is 8-3 when the normally stingy Billikens played a home game with a line in the same range. Overall, the Billikens have seen the UNDER go 19-9 in all games with an O/U line in that range. Last time out, St. Louis allowed just 60. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER moving to 4-1 the last five times that St. Louis faced a team from the Big East. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. The Seahawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off to an 0-2 start, the Wildcats are going to be in an angry mood. This is an experienced and talented Davidson team, one with big expectations on the season. This has been a good role for the Wildcats over the years. They're 16-8-2 ATS (25-1 SU) the past 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -15.5 to -18 range. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark their last three in that role. Even better, during that span, the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they'd scored 25 or fewer points in the first half of their previous game. The Wildcats won by 27, as -11 point favorites, the last time these teams met here. Expect another blowout.

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Alabama A&M OVER the total. I actually won with the Bearcats 'under' in their last game. However, that was more a case of a line being generously high and even at the time, I noted that they were going to push the pace a lot more this year. Tonight, as a huge favorite, they'll have a chance to do exactly that. I expect them to put up a huge number. Through two games, Alabama A&M is allowing an average of 90 points. While the Bulldogs won't be able to keep up, coach Dylan Howard expects his new lineup to be much more efficent offensively this season. As per "Blue Ribbon," Howard commented: "We had to get better guys that can just score at multiple levels. We had to get guys that can finish at the rim, knock down the 3 with more consistency..." Bearcats put up a big number and Bulldogs provide enough help to get this one over the low total. 

I'm playing on Drake/Cincy UNDER the total. While the Bulldogs do return six of their top nine players, the three that left were there three top scorers. They had success offensively against a weak team (Kennesaw State) in their first game but they're going to find scoring a challenge against a stingy Cincy team. True, the Bearcats are going to be a little more up-tempo under Brannen than they were under Cronin. They're still going to be a strong defensive team though. In their first game, while the Bearcats scored only 56 against Ohio State, they also held the Buckeyes to only 64. Drake has seen the UNDER go 7-1-1 the last nine times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. When these instate rivals met last season, the Redhawks hammered the Eagles by an 88-68 margin. Two seasons ago, Seattle won by a similar margin, 84-65. If they can stay healthy, the Eagles should have a good season in the Big Sky. However, they're still not ready to knock off Seattle. Note that Eastern Washington was 1-9 in non-conf. play last season. Seattle, on the other hand, was 10-4 in non-conf. action, outscoring teams by a 78.4 to 68.9 ppg. The Redhawks are going to be in an angry mood after getting blown out at Washington State. Needless to say, this is a significant step down in class. Having faced the Cougars intense defense should serve them well. The Redhawks, who returned four starters from last season, know that they've got a brutal non-conf. schedule and that they can't afford to squander this opportunity. The Redhawks, 31-9 their last 40 at home, are 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after a road loss of 20 or more points. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Auburn/Davidson UNDER the total. These are both good teams and both are going to be stingy defensively this season. Bruce Pearl said this of Auburn prior to the season: "We'll be different. We won't shoot it as well, we won't be as undersized and quick ... we'll be bigger, longer and we'll need to be better defensively ..." Davidson has seen the UNDER go 9-4 when getting points, the past couple of seasons, typically playing at quite a slow pace. (Ranked 319th in adjusted tempo according to KemPom.com.) That includes a 2-0 UNDER record as a neutral court underdog of three or fewer points. Over the years, Auburn has seen the UNDER go 11-6 when playing a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Seattle/WSU UNDER the total. These schools try and recruit the same players so there's a natural rivalry. Seattle took last season's game, at Seattle. The Cougars won here at WSU, the previous year. In both cases, the came stayed below the total. The game here had an O/U line of 141.5 and finished with 134, a 75-59 final. That was the "old" Cougars, too. Under former coach Ernie Kent, the Cougars were typically pretty incompetent on defense. They've got a new coach now though as Kyle Smith has taken over in Pullman. Smith has absolutely brought a new level of commitment to the defensive side of the ball. WSU forward CJ Elleby had this to say: "First hour of practice, we're doing straight defense. We're working on our principles, where we need to be in rotations, how we can help the helper and really how we're going to guard situation plays. Ball screens, down screens, back screens. Really just trying to learn, and he's teaching us the ways in which we're going to play defense."

Forward Deion James added: "Right now, defensively, we're just trying to keep the ball in front of us, just in terms of stopping the ball. Just having help-side rotation and rotating pretty good. And just having everybody's back and not quitting when things break down. So, that's our biggest emphasis."

Look for the renewed commitment and emphasis on defense to lead to a relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER moving to a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that Seatte played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Both these teams are young. However, the Bonnies' young players are a lot more talented and have a lot more experience. While the Bobcats return just one starter, St. Bonaventure returns a trio of starting sophomores and will have a big edge in the backcourt.  Note that the Bobcats are 7-16-1 ATS (4-20 SU) as road underdogs the past couple of seasons while the Bonnies were 13-7 ATS (18-2 SU).

Coach Schmidt said this of his Bonnies: "... confidence is a big factor for these guys. Getting off to a good start is paramount … " The Bobcats will provide the Bonnies with the perfect opportunity for that good start. Expect Schmidt's team to make the most of it, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and pulling away for a blowout win.