Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on WISCONSIN.

The Boilermakers boast a talented team and enter conference play with considerably higher expectations than the Badgers. They know winner here is never easy though. I don't expect it to be easy tonight either, as I expect the Badgers to be extremely hungry. In their first game under new coach Gard, the Badgers nearly blew a 30-point second half. That caused Ethan Happ to comment: ''It was embarrassing to our program. It was embarrassing to us. I know it made me sick. I'm sure it made the other guys sick as well. We cannot play like that in the Big Ten season and expect to win at any point in the game.'' Look for them to Badgers to be much better, en route to at least a cover.

10* Main Event

I'm taking the points with BELMONT.

The Crusaders boast the superior record and come in as small favorites. I won't be surprised to see the Bruins come away with the upset though. Belmont gave the Crusaders all they could handle when the teams met at Valparaiso earlier, losing by just four as 9-point dogs. That result should provide them with such confidence. They're a much better team here, where they're already 3-0 and an outright win for the revenge-minded Bruins is definitely not out of the question.

10* Best Bet

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs South Carolina State) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 6 PM ET - South Carolina State comes from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC). Not only is that one of the weakest conferences in the nation, the Bulldogs also are among the bottom half of the teams in the conference. Last season South Carolina State went 11-22 on the year and this season, despite playing a weak schedule, they are off to another rough start with a 5-8 mark thusfar. Last season the Bulldogs had trouble with their offense. Though the offense has improved early this season, South Carolina State is not defending well and they will have all sorts of trouble trying to stop the talented players a Big Ten team like Ohio State has. The Buckeyes are only 7-5 on the season but they've played some tough opposition early this season. Also, five of Ohio State's seven wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. This is another game that has blowout written all over it for the Buckeyes. This is Ohio State's final tune-up before Big Ten conference action gets underway (they face Minnesota Wednesday) and the Buckeyes will make sure they're ready to go by giving the full 40 minute performance against an overmatched Bulldogs team Sunday. Ohio State is 3-0 ATS this season and 9-3 ATS the last three seasons combined in home games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. 

I am playing on OKLAHOMA (vs Harvard) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Friday @ 9 PM ET - With Oklahoma off of a tight win over Hawaii (by just 3 points), there is some line value created here. The line on the Sooners for Christmas Day has been kept lower than it should be. Oklahoma is undefeated on the season and, prior to the win over Hawaii, the Sooners prior 8 wins came by an average margin of 26.4 points per victory. That said, covering 14 against an over-matched Harvard team should not be a problem. The Crimson lost an 'all-everything player' with the loss of Wesley Saunders from last season's team. It's evident this has impacted Harvard as they are only 5-6 this season. The Crimson just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Oklahoma. While Harvard is averaging 67 points per game this season, the Sooners are averaging 87 points per game this season. Harvard is 3-5 away from home this season while Oklahoma comes into this one undefeated. Don't be fooled by the Crimson allowing just 51 points to Auburn. In their four prior games, Harvard allowed 76.5 points per game. The Crimson won't be able to stop Oklahoma and this one will be all Sooners as Harvard continues to show they are below the level of the teams here that recently produced 5 straight Ivy League titles and four straight appearances in the Big Dance. Oklahoma got their "wake-up call" against Hawaii and that means the Sooners won't take Harvard lightly.

I am playing on BAYLOR (vs New Mexico State) as my *10 CBB *Game of the Month* on 8 PM ET - The Bears are a surprising 0-4 ATS on the season and that is certainly helping to keep this line lower than it should be. That, plus the fact that Baylor is off of a rare straight-up loss (just their 2nd of the season) has me going with a very strong play here. The Bears are a solid 8-2 on the season but they are angry as they are coming off of an ugly loss at Texas A & M by a 19 point margin. Now Baylor is back home and ready to get the bad taste out of their mouth after being embarrassed by the Aggies. The Bears go from facing one Aggies to team to hosting another Aggies team. New Mexico State visits Waco Wednesday night. The Aggies are off of back to back wins but the recent road win they had was their first of the season as they are 1-3 SU and ATS in road games this season. New Mexico State is on a 4-9 ATS run against Big 12 opponents and also an 8-14 ATS run as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Baylor, coming into this season, had gone 4-1 ATS when they entered a game having to failed to cover each of their last three games. The Bears also are 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Baylor is not happy at all with what transpired at College Station and the Bears will respond in a huge way Wednesday. New Mexico State came into this season having lost four of their top six scorers from last season's team. It shows as the Aggies already have 5 losses on the season.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (@ Virginia) as my *10 ESPN2 Main Event on Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - The Golden Bears, based on this line, certainly are not getting the respect they deserve as a solid Pac-12 team is off to a 9-2 start to the season. Of course Virginia is 9-1 on the season and certainly ranks among the top teams in the country so far this season. However, Cal is a formidable foe that can challenge the Cavaliers in this one. The Golden Bears entered this season projected by some to be a Sweet Sixteen level team. Cal has tremendous talent and is well-coached. The Bears come into this game having won 5 straight games. One of their two losses this season came by just four points. The Golden Bears are shooting the ball very well this season. On the other end, the California defense has been exceptional ever since the aforementioned 4 point loss. That defeat followed Cal's only other loss this season and those back to back defeats seemed to be a wake-up call for the team. The Golden Bears are on a long-term run of 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Cavaliers are off of a big win over Villanova by a final count of 86-75. The Cavs are 2-5 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. After that big win, it is hard for Virginia not to be a little "flat" here and the Golden Bears have the talent to be dangerous underdog in this situation.

I am playing on DREXEL (vs Pennsylvania) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Tuesday @ 7 PM ET - Nice contrarian angle here as the 1-8 Drexel Dragons face a 5-5 Pennsylvania team. The quick reaction here would of course be to go against the team that has such a poor record so far this season, especially considering that the Dragons are laying points here. However, Drexel has played the much tougher schedule early this season and there is a lot of value with the Dragons in this spot. Penn is off of a win but previously had lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Quakers also have a lookahead in effect here as it is hard to get excited about playing a 1-8 team when you have a big game on deck with Villanova up next. All of these are Philly-area teams but the Wildcats are the top team in the area of course. The Quakers defense has faded lately with weak performances and that is a concern heading into a match-up with a Drexel team that is so hungry to get back into the win column. While Penn comes into this game off of a win, the Dragons have lost back to back games and are suffering through an ugly 1-8 start to the season. Penn is on a 10-15 ATS run in road games. Drexel has played mostly neutral site games and road games early this season so they are happy to be back on their home floor here and I look for that to show up with a big home win for the Dragons Tuesday.

I am playing on GONZAGA (vs Pepperdine) as a *10 Main Event on Monday @ 9 PM ET - These teams have similar records with Pepperdine at 7-4 while Gonzaga is at 8-3. However, that is where the similarities start and stop with these teams. The Bulldogs are a powerful team in a good spot ready to dominate on their home floor. Gonzaga is off of a win Saturday but they were not happy about their perimeter defense in that game as they allowed Tennessee to hit nearly 50% of their threes. Look for a stronger defensive effort tonight from a Bulldogs team that had given up just 64 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Gonzaga is hosting a Pepperdine team that is only 3-4 away from home this season. Also, the Wave have faced a much weaker schedule so far this season. Pepperdine is off of a strong defensive effort in their most recent game but they are 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Even though Gonzaga is on short rest here they have gone 19-9 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing with one day or less of rest. The Bulldogs blasted the Wave by 18 points the last time they met and that was on a neutral floor last March. At home, this one gets even uglier in terms of a blowout win for Gonzaga. 

I am playing on WRIGHT STATE (vs Bowling Green) as a *10 CBB Main Event on Sunday @ 4:30 PM ET - Wright State's overall record may not look impressive but they are a tough out on their home floor. The Raiders have won 3 of their 4 home game this season and their average margin of victory in the 3 wins was 3 points. Wright State is hosting a Bowling Green team Sunday that is off of a road loss where they allowed 95 points last Saturday. Home court makes a huge difference in College Basketball and I see a big edge with Wright State laying a small number in this one. The Raiders have won 21 of their 33 home games the past three seasons. The Falcons could be impacted by the long layoff here and they are 6-10 ATS when they enter a game off of 7 or more days of rest. Bowling Green also is on a 7-12 ATS run in road games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. Just like it what happened at Detroit last weekend, the Falcons defense does them in again this weekend as Wright State rolls at home. 

I am playing on GONZAGA (vs Tennessee) as my *10 Main Event Saturday @ 11 PM ET - Tennessee has played solid defense this season. The Bulldogs have played even better! The Volunteers have shot the ball well this season, Gonzaga has shot the ball even better. You can see where I am going with this. As respectable as the Vols play has been early this season Tennessee is still not on par with the level that this Gonzaga team is at. Additionally, the Bulldogs have the home court edge here. While it is considered a neutral site game there is no denying the venue being the KeyArena in Seattle, WA certainly favors the Zags. The Volunteers have a long-term mark of 38-57 ATS in neutral court games the last three seasons. As you would expect, Tennessee struggles against elite defensive teams. The Vols are 7-17 ATS the past three seasons when they a face a team that is allowing an average of 64 points per game or less. Gonzaga is 15-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Volunteers have won all five games on their home floor this season but they've lost all four games away from home! The Bulldogs are allowing just 61 points per game this season and the Vols are allowing 75 points per game. The better defense and the 'home court edge' on this 'neutral court' will lead to a huge home win for Gonzaga.

I am playing on OREGON (vs Long Beach State) as my *10 CBB Blue Marlin on Friday @ 9 PM ET - The 49'ers lost all five starters from last season's team. Long Beach State has battled hard to try and quickly recover without all those pieces. The 49'ers have been helped by some solid Junior College transfers. But it takes time for a team to gel after so much roster turnover. Long Beach State is off of a win but it was against a weak foe and, prior to that, the 49'ers had lost 6 of their 8 prior games. Look for Long Beach State's losing ways to quickly return as they now step up big in class again to face a tough Oregon team. The Ducks are 8-2 on the season and off a blowout win over Cal Irvine. 5 of the Ducks 8 wins this season have come by a margin of at least 15 points. Oregon is on a 10-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. The 49'ers are allowing 80 points per game in road games this season while the Ducks are allowing just 64 points per game in home games this season. Look for that to be a key tonight as the Oregon offense simply proves to be too much for a Long Beach State team that struggles to get defensive stops. 

I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA (vs Marshall) as my *10 ESPNU *Main Event* on Thursday @ 7 PM ET - Two teams at opposite end of the spectrum early this season and I see no reason for that to change in Thursday night's match-up. Marshall enters with a 2-6 ATS mark on the season while West Virginia is a sparkling 5-1 ATS so far this season. The Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 59 points per game on the season. The Thundering Herd are allowing an average of 83 points per game. The big difference in the way these two teams play defense is also going to be the big difference maker in how this game plays out as it should turn into an absolute rout. The Thundering Herd have won 3 straight games but those victories have come against weak competition. Marshall started the season with 6 straight losses and they got pounded by the tougher competition they faced. This is, without a doubt, the toughest match-up that the Thundering Herd will have had so far this season and that is why I look for them to have their worst loss of the season and that means a loss by 25 or more in this one. West Virginia will not show mercy to an in-state foe and the Mountaineers are off of a blowout win by 42 points in their most recent game. West Virginia already has five wins by margins of at least 33 points so far this season. Another blowout is on tap for Thursday night.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE (vs Kennesaw State) as my *10 CBB *Blue Marlin* on Wednesday @ 7 PM ET - Of course you can tell by the line on this game but this match-up truly has colossal blowout written all over it. The 7-1 Cardinals take on an over-matched Kennesaw State team. The Cards have already proven that they are not opposed to absolutely imposing their will against smaller, inferior teams. Louisville's 7 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 36 points this season. Kennesaw State has played 3 games this season where they were a double digit dog and they have have been crushed by at least 22 points in each of those games. The bad news for Kennesaw State is that is likely the toughest match-up they have faced yet this season and their long-term record is 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. Louisville is on a long-term run of 49-35 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Cardinals also are 4-1 ATS in home games with a total set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Blowout Wednesday!

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs Texas A & M Corpus Christi as my *10 Blue Marlin on Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - Off back to back losses to two in-state foes (Marquette and Wisconsin Milwaukee), the Badgers will take out their frustration on a much weaker foe in this match-up. Wisconsin had won 6 of their last 8 games before dropping two straight games to the Golden Eagles and Panthers. The Badgers have still been playing solid defense but their offense failed them recently. Look for them to take advantage of hosting a Texas A & M Corpus Christi team that has not faced near the schedule that they have. Also, the Islanders are 5-0 at home but just 2-2 away from home and Texas A & M CC lost those two games by an average margin of 18 points to UT and the A & M Aggies. Corpus Christi likes to play an uptempo game under head coach Willis Wilson but that will be stifled by Bo Ryan's Badgers. Especially with Wisconsin off back to back losses, look for an exceptional defensive performance from the Badgers. This is the type of game that will show the gap in conference strength between the Big Ten and the Southland Conference.

I am playing on SOUTH ALABAMA (vs Southern Miss) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Monday @ 8 PM ET - The Jaguars are solid in the back-court this season as they have improved in both experience and depth. Though the Jags are off to a tough 3-4 start this season they have cut down on turnovers which is something that plagued them in the past. South Alabama is hosting a 1-6 Southern Miss team so it's the perfect opportunity for the Jaguars to get a big home win to jump start a big winning streak. The Jags offense has struggled at times on the road this season but South Alabama has been solid on their home floor averaging 83.5 points per game. Coming off of tough road loss, the Jaguars should respond with a big home win today. The Southern Miss basketball program continues to struggle as former Golden Eagles coach Donnie Tyndall brought a lot of problems to the program and three more players transferred out during the off-season. The Golden Eagles have been covering game this season but they continue to lose the games straight-up and this line has come down low enough that is absolutely worth a play. Southern Miss is averaging just 51 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Eagles won't be able to keep up with a South Alabama team known for putting up big points on their home floor.

I am playing on #628 - PORTLAND (vs Cal State Sacramento) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Portland lost some key players from last seasons team so they knew some junior college transfers would have to be key contributors and that is exactly what has happened. Frontcourt newcomers Jarrel Marshall and Ray Barreno have come in and done a good job in the paint for the Pilots. Portland was already strong on the perimeter with guys like Alec Wintering and Bryce Pressley taking care of business. The Pilots come into this game seeking revenge for the March 18th loss to Cal State Sacramento. Portland won the rebounding battle in that game and took more shots from the field but CS Sacramento had a rare strong shooting night, including from beyond the arc, and that was the difference in the game. It is payback time tonight. The Pilots are on a 19-11 ATS run in non-conference games. Cal State Sacramento has lost 23 of their last 34 road games and this is a very manageable line for Portland to cover. 

I am playing on #528 - WISCONSIN (vs Marquette) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 1:30 PM ET - The Badgers want to protect their home turf here against the boys from Milwaukee. Marquette comes to Madison on Saturday and Wisconsin will be fired up after their loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Wednesday. After that defeat, the Badgers need to respond against the Golden Eagles as Wiscy doesn't want to lose to both in-state rivals back to back. Wisconsin's six wins this season have come by an average margin of 14 points per game so covering this relatively small number should not be a problem. The Badgers certainly have played the much tougher schedule in comparison with Marquette so far this season. The Golden Eagles are 7-2 so far this season but the two losses included a loss to Belmont and a 28 point loss at the hands of Iowa. Look for another blowout loss here as Marquette is catching their 'big brother' in their home state at absolutely the wrong time. The Badgers are angry and Wisconsin gets the big win here.

I am playing on MISSOURI STATE (vs IUPU-Indianapolis) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Thursday @ 8 PM ET - Both of these teams have struggled early this season but Missouri State's 2-5 record is helping to create some line value here. The Bears have played the tougher schedule early this season, are at home for this game, and are only two years removed from a season in which they won 20 games. The Bears added some solid junior college transfers under the direction of coach Paul Lusk and this team will jell as a unit. Tonight Missouri State takes advantage of hosting an IUPUI team that is projected to be among the worst in The Summit League. That says a lot because the Jaguars conference certainly is not on par with The Missouri Valley Conference that is the home of the Bears. IUPU-Indianapolis was just 10-21 last season and is off to a 3-7 start this season. The Jaguars are 23-36 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. The Bears have a straight up record of 22-9 in home games the past two seasons and this will be just their third home game this season as they look to go to 2-1 at home on the year. With the small number on this game, any SU victory is likely to also be an ATS win and I look for Missouri State (always tough to beat here) to get the job done again on their home floor. The Bears just beat Oklahoma State outright as a double digit dog in their most recent game. IUPUI is really beat up mentally after their 27 point loss at Purdue in their last game.

I am playing on PEPPERDINE (vs Long Beach State) as my *10 CBB Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 10 PM ET - Long Beach State is 5-5 so far this season. In the long run they may end up being a solid team in the Big West Conference this season. However, in the short-term there is certainly some early season adjustments going on. The 49ers lost all five starters from last season's team. Long Beach State has been cashing tickets at the window early this season but that is helping to provide some line value here as Pepperdine is a very small home favorite even though the 49ers have lost 5 of their last 7 games straight-up. Any win for the Waves is likely to result in ATS cover here as well for Pepperdine thanks to the low spread posted on this game. The Waves come into this game with only a 4-4 mark on the year but this is a team that has improved from 10 wins to 12 wins to 15 wins to 18 wins in their first four seasons under coach Marty Wilson. The Waves also returned nearly every key player from last season's team. Pepperdine is known for solid defense as they held opponents to 61.6 points per game last season. Heading into this game, the Waves have given up just 61.5 points per game in their last 4 games. Pepperdine is off of a big 15 point win at Cal-State Northridge on Saturday and carries momentum from that win into this home game for bragging rights in the LA area. Long Beach State is 8-16 ATS in road games with a total set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Pepperdine is 12-5 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for the Waves stingy defense to get the job done again tonight. 

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee) as my *10 CBB Personal Favorite on Wednesday @ 9:00 PM ET - The Badgers blasted the Panthers by 39 points last season and this is nothing new as Wisconsin also crushed Wisconsin-Milwaukee the year before by a 26 point margin. Both teams come into this match-up with identical 6-3 records so far this season but the Badgers have played the tougher schedule early this season. Wisconsin has compiled a 17-7 ATS mark in home games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. The Badgers have covered 3 straight games (and 25 of their last 42) as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are on a 4-8 ATS run in December games while the Badgers are on a 10-5 ATS run in games in the month of December. Wisconsin has held each of their last two opponents to 38% or less from the field. Both games were solid wins and covers for the Badgers. The Panthers have failed to cover three of their last four games heading into this match-up. Prior to holding Southern Illinois - Edwardsville to 51 points Thursday, Wisconsin-Milwaukee gave up an average of 77 points per game in their four prior games. The Panthers defense will prove to be no match for the tough defense of coach Bo Ryan's Badgers and this one turns into a Wiscy blowout.

I am playing on STONY BROOK (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 Main Event Tuesday @ 9 PM ET - There is a reason this line is so low on Notre Dame. Stony Brook is projected to be the top team in the America East Conference this season. The Seawolves are led by the best player in their conference, Jameel Warney and he is one of five returning starters that coach Steve Pikiell's team has on board for this season. This is the same Stony Brook team that would have made the field of 64 last season except for a buzzer beater in the AEC Championship game against Albany. Of course the Seawolves don't play as tough of a schedule as Notre Dame does but Stony Brook has beaten Princeton and Loyola-MD this season and the two Seawolves losses came by just one point to Western Kentucky and seven points to Vanderbilt. Stony Brook has played solid defense again this season and that will help keep them in this game all the way through. Notre Dame is likely to overlook Stony Brook as the Fighting Irish are coming off of 3 straight games against the likes of Iowa, Alabama, and Illinois. Undoubtedly this game means more to Stony Brook than it does to Notre Dame. Stony Brook has a 5-2 ATS mark in road games. The Irish are on an 8-20 ATS mark in home games including an 0-6 ATS mark in home games where they are a 6.5 to 9 point favorite. 

I am playing on OREGON (vs Navy) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 9:45 PM ET - This game is being played in Hawaii. Oregon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. The Ducks, overall, are on a 7-3 ATS run in all games with a total set in a range of 130 to 139.5 points. Oregon is on a 20-12 ATS run in non-conference games and the Midshipmen are going to have trouble matching up with this solid PAC-12 team. Navy is on a 6-9 ATS run in lined, non-conference games. The Midshipmen have a great record on the season but haven't played any significant competition other than Florida. In that game against the Gators, Navy was blown out and failed to cover the spread as the Midshipmen made just 29% of their shots from the field. For the first time in three and a half weeks Navy is involved in a lined game and, just as they were against the Gators, look for the Midshipmen to be outclassed here. Navy is again projected to be among the weakest teams in the Patriot League and they lost the only two double digit scorers they had on last season's team. Oregon is coming off of their first loss of the season, a tight one against UNLV, and the Ducks will take advantage of now facing a much weaker foe to bounce back with a huge victory on Monday. 

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs CS-Fullerton) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 9 PM ET - Cal-State Fullerton went 1-15 in the Big West Conference last season and comes into this season again projected to be the worst team in the conference. This is a team that finished up last year losing each of its last nine games. Also, Cal-State Fullerton only returned two players from last season's team who averaged more than 5 points per game last season. With that said, look for a powerful PAC-12 team, Washington, to win this one in an absolute rout. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS in games where the total is set between 150 and 159.5 points. Cal State Fullerton has gone 6-18 ATS as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Fullerton has surprised some early with a 6-1 record this season but they have played a weak scheduled and that is what will be evident when they try to match up with the Huskies on Sunday night. Cal State Fullerton is 2-6 ATS in December games the past two years. The Huskies are coming off of three straight non-covers and this is a situation that has seen Washington go 6-3 ATS the past two seasons so look for the big win and cover for the Huskies Sunday night. 

I am playing on DUQUESNE (@ Pittsburgh) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 7 ET - Duquesne is knocking down over 50% of their shots from the field this season and the Dukes have already covered 3 of their first 4 games. Duquesne is located in Pittsburgh and they always have plenty of motivation about facing their 'big school' rivals. The Dukes face the Panthers on Friday and Pitt has been over-valued early this season and has failed to cover 3 of their first 4 games. With the hot shooting that Duquesne has displayed early this season I don't see them being out of this game at any point on Friday night. The other key is that if the Panthers are able to establish a significant lead, the Dukes certainly would have great 'backdoor cover' potential with the way they've been knocking down shots. A high-scoring game is being called for by the oddsmakers tonight and Duquesne is 8-3 ATS in games with a total set in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Panthers are just 17-31 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons and have gone an awful 1-9 ATS in December the last three years.

I am playing on WISCONSIN (@ Syracuse) as my *10 Main Event on Wednesday @ 7:15 ET - The Orange are only a small favorite here even though they are undefeated on the season and the Badgers are an unimpressive 4-3 on the season. That alone ought to tell you something here. Wisconsin is the play! When a line looks a little 'off' like this it's time to investigate and in this case, some good supporting points for the Badgers are certainly in place. Syracuse really padded their defensive numbers early this season against some weak competition. In recent games the defense has not been as impressive with 74 points per game allowed in their last 3 games. The Orange have been shooting lights out from three point land but that is also skewing the numbers here. Teams simply can't go on relying on knocking down the high percentage of threes that Syracuse has been draining in recent games. The Badgers have given up a high percentage of threes so far this season so defending the perimeter is already a focus of Wiscy's heading into this game and they magnify that even more based on the early success that Syracuse has had. In other words, look for a full lock-down mode on the perimeter from the Badgers in this one. Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS an underdog the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 11-19 ATS in home games the last three seasons. The Badgers are a bit of a younger team this season but they've already endured some important early-season growing pains and Bo Ryan will have his team ready for the potential upset tonight. The points are certainly worth taking. *10 Wisconsin

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs Virginia) as my *10 ESPN *MAIN EVENT* on Tuesday @ 7:30 PM ET - Part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and Ohio State is hosting Virginia and yet getting no respect. Certainly Virginia deserves respect as a Top Ten team in the nation but Ohio State is still quite a talented team to be getting this many points on their home floor and I am riding the home dog value in this one. After an upset loss to UT-Arlington the Buckeyes have lost two more games but those defeats came against a solid Louisiana Tech team that is still undefeated on the season as well as a solid Memphis team (that line was right around a pick'em). So, the point is, don't write off the Buckeyes just yet. In fact, look for them to bounce back strong in a spot like this and look for the Cavaliers to be mistaken in underestimating them. The Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, Ohio State has a long-term 62-43 ATS mark when facing teams averaging 77+ points per game. The point is they know how to play with teams like the Tigers and this is particularly true when they get them on their own floor. Look for the Buckeyes to test the Cavaliers in Columbus tonight. Virginia has played a weak schedule this season, other than the game against George Washington and the Cavs did lose that game. The Cavaliers also have had a long layoff heading into this game as they haven't played in almost a week (when they faced an overmatched Lehigh team). Virginia is 0-4 ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game having been off for 5 or 6 days between games. Look for a little rust for the Cavaliers in this one. 

I am playing on CREIGHTON (vs Western Illinois) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8 ET - Western Illinois is 5-0 on the season but they truly have played a weak schedule (other than their upset win of Wisconsin) and have not been tested yet (other than the Badgers). Now they step up in class (as evidenced by being installed as a big dog here) and Western Illinois is on a 3-10 ATS run when they are a big dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Creighton is well aware of the upset win that Western Illinois scored over the Badgers early this season and you can bet that the Bluejays won't underestimate the Leathernecks. Creighton's four wins this season have come by an average margin of 20 points per victory and they'll be ready to roll again here. The Bluejays have gone 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Western Illinois is on a 15-25 ATS run as an underdog and a 9-17 ATS run in road games. Many projected the Leathernecks to be at the bottom of the Summit League this season so their strong early start has been a surprise. That makes for even more value in fading them at a reasonable price as they now take a big step up in class to face a solid Bluejays team.

I am playing on GEORGIA TECH (vs Arkansas) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 2 PM ET - The Yellow Jackets were a perfect 3-0 on the season before enduring an upset loss to East Tennessee State as a 17.5 point favorite on Sunday. Look for Georgia Tech to come up with a big effort after the one point loss last weekend. Arkansas is 2-1 on the season but they lost their only game that was against a respectable foe. That defeat came at the hands of Akron. So, in the one game so far this season that the Razorbacks needed to step up the could not do it. Arkansas lost to the Zips by 8 even though they were a 6 point favorite. The Hogs need to step up today as they face a tough ACC foe but history suggests they will be unable to do so. Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against ACC competition. As a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Razorbacks are 3-8 ATS. The Hogs are missing Anton Beard as the point guard was expected to be a significant contributor but he's out for the first semester due to a suspension. The Yellow Jackets are shooting better on the young season than Arkansas is. Also, Georgia Tech has been defending the 3-ball much better than the Razorbacks have been early this season. 

I am playing on Wisconsin (vs Prairie View A & M) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Wednesday @ 8:00 PM ET - As you can tell by the spread on this game, this is a colossal mismatch. However, even with the big number posted on this game, the point spread is not nearly big enough. The Badgers already learned their lesson about underestimating an opponent when they lost to Western Illinois in their season opener two weeks ago. With that said, Wisconsin is certainly not going to overlook Prairie View A & M. The Badgers have gone 3-1 in their last 4 games and will now take advantage of a winless foe that is completely overmatched. Not only are the Panthers from the weak SouthWestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) but they lost a ton of key players from last season's roster. As a result, Prairie View A & M is likely to be among the worst teams in the SWAC. The Panthers two games this season against formidable opposition both resulted in ugly losses. Prairie View A & M lost to Houston and Virginia Commonwealth by an average margin of defeat of 33 points per loss. As a home favorite of 24.5 to 30 points the Badgers have gone 8-4 ATS and they roll big again in this one.

I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs Louisiana Tech) as my *10 Tuesday Main Event @ 8:00 ET - After starting the season 2-0, the Buckeyes come into this game off of an upset loss as an 18.5 point favorite to UT-Arlington. That defeat has the Buckeyes fired up here and Ohio State will shut down an over-rated Louisiana Tech team today. The Bulldogs have had a lot of success in recent seasons but they lost a number of key players from last season's squad plus Louisiana Tech was forced into a coaching change heading into this season. That leaves the Bulldogs vulnerable to a blowout loss here as Thad Matta's Buckeyes have held each of their first three opponents this season to 37.5% or less from the field. Ohio State is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, the Buckeyes are 54-36 ATS in games with a posted total between 140 and 149.5 points. In a higher-scoring game (total on this game is expected in the 140s), the better defense and the team off of an upset loss is the play here.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs East Carolina) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Monday @ 10 PM ET - Even though San Diego State is just 2-2 on the season they have played the much tougher schedule in comparison with 2-1 East Carolina. Also, the Aztecs have played fantastic defense so far as they have held opponents to 35% shooting from the field. The Pirates have been held under 33% from the field in two of their three games so far this season so they could be in trouble here against the tough defense of San Diego State. East Carolina scored just 62 and 61 points, respectively, in those two aforementioned games. The Aztecs come into this game off of an embarrassing loss to Arkansas Little Rock where San Diego State was held to just 43 points in the defeat. The Aztecs previously had scored at least 71 points in all 3 of their games this season. The Pirates struggling offense simply won't be able to keep up here as San Diego State is fired up and ready to roll huge on offense after the rare ugly defeat they were just dealt. The Aztecs are 8-3 ATS in November game the last 3 seasons combined. Blowout bounce back victory for San Diego State here.

I am playing on USC (vs New Mexico) as my *10 Blue Marlin BEST BET on Saturday @ 10:30 PM ET - A match up of undefeated teams Saturday night. The Trojans have the big edge with home court. The Lobos are without Devon Williams (neck) for the rest of the season. Though he was not a huge scorer, he is a key returning player that New Mexico was counting on heading into this season. New Mexico is 3-0 on the young season but their early season schedule has included feasting on some weaker competition like Loyola-IL and Texas Southern. USC is averaging 92 points per game so far this season and will be tough to slow down on their home floor. The Trojans are still a bit of a young team but they've added a lot of talent thanks to some strong recruiting since Andy Enfield took over. USC is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since Enfield took over as head coach. The Lobos entered this season with a 3-7 ATS mark in the past two Novembers. New Mexico is 10-14 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding Loyola-IL to just 51 points, the Lobos will have their hands full with a Trojans offensive attack that has been firing on all cylinders early this season. 

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (vs East Carolina) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Friday @ 11 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with a 2-0 mark on the season but that is where the similarities end as there is truly a large disparity between these two programs. California came into this season with a trio of proven veterans and, in the off-season, the Golden Bears added a pair of top recruits. It truly makes them one of the top programs in the PAC-12. I like the fact the coach Cuonzo Martin has this team focused on defense coming into the new season. A trip to Australia in August helped the team gel and the Golden Bears have a solid roster capable of adjusting to playing either big or small. Cal has started off the season on fire offensively and the Bears have won their first two games by an average of 23 points per game. The Pirates also are 2-0 on the season but the fact that East Carolina was held to only 31% from the field in their win over Grambling is certainly concerning. The Pirates two main weaknesses coming into this season were defense inside the 3-point line and the ability to compete for rebounds against bigger foes. I don't see East Carolina as being much improved in either one of those areas and that spells trouble when facing one of the top teams in the country as they are on Thursday night.

I am playing on LOYOLA MARYMOUNT (@ Colorado State) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday @ 9 PM ET - Colorado State opened up their season with an upset win on the road at Northern Iowa where the Rams were a 7.5 point underdog and won outright by a half dozen. The Rams are susceptible to complacency after a big win like that and they may not be fully focused on a Loyola Marymount team that could prove to be a dangerous dog. The Lions are off a disappointing loss at UC-Irvine where Loyola Marymount scored just 53 points. That is precisely the type of ugly game (Lions shot 27.4% from the field) that you will see a team bounce back huge from. The Lions have defended the 3-ball well so far this season and the Rams only shot 30% from beyond the arc in their opening game of the season. This could help keep the Lions well within striking distance throughout this game. Loyola Marymount is a huge dog here and the Lions are facing a Rams team that has gone 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. In games with a total between 140 and 149.5 points, Colorado State has gone 3-8 ATS. Overall, in home games, the Rams are on an 11-17 ATS run and in non-conference games Colorado State is on a 6-12 ATS run. Off the big road win over the Panthers, the Rams are likely to prove to be a little disinterested tonight against the Lions.

I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs North Dakota) as my *10 Blue Marlin Tuesday @ 8 PM ET - The Badgers lost their season opener outright as a 25 point favorite. Wisconsin responded by exploding for a huge win over Siena by 27 points on Sunday. After that win, the last thing the Badgers want to do is lose momentum as they have a date with Georgetown coming up on Friday. That means a repeat of the same huge effort that Wisconsin gave against Siena can be expected here. The Badgers held Siena under 40% from the field while shooting nearly 60% from the field themselves. North Dakota played an outclassed foe (MN-Morris) in their first game this season and now take a huge step up in class as they face the Badgers. That is tough to do early in the season and the talent gap here is simply far too much. North Dakota lost six of their top eight scorers from last season's team and that will make early season contests against stellar teams like Wisconsin quite problematic for a team lacking in experience on the floor. Look for North Dakota to get pummeled here. 

I’m playing on the Under in Duke Blue Devils vs. Wisconsin Badgers as my 10* Over/Under Best of the Best Monday.

These two national title contenders actually met during non-conference play during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge back in December. Duke won that game 80-70 and topped the 135.5-point total easily. Oddsmakers have hiked the number for this rematch in the national title game even higher, but there is value in playing the Under when these power programs collide Monday.

Wisconsin’s best defensive strategy is its offensive philosophy. The Badgers play a methodical pace and run plenty of off-the-ball movement, chewing up the shot clock and getting a high-percentage look. They maintained this pace, even against a foe as dominating as Kentucky, and in the end controlled the tempo of that game. And defensively, there are fewer teams as tough on the basketball as Wisconsin, not allowing teams to push them around in the paint.

Duke flexed its offensive muscle in a Final Four win over Michigan State, easily out-classing and overwhelming the Spartans with their size and talent. But behind all that fire power is a defense that has allowed just 39.4 percent shooting in its last three NCAA contests and has held tournament foes to only 55 points per game.

The Blue Devils were able to capitalize on turnovers and long rebounds against a smaller MSU squad for easy transition buckets, including plenty of 3-point plays from the stripe. They won’t get those chance to break out against the Badgers, who rebound well and average the fewest turnovers per game in the country. This game will screech to a halt and be decided in slowed half-court battle.

The Badgers' methodical offense and the Blue Devils' undervalued defense are why I’m playing the Under in Duke vs. Wisconsin as my 10* Over/Under Best of the Best Monday.

I’m playing on the Kentucky Wildcats as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

Kentucky got a scare in the Elite Eight, nearly letting Notre Dame upset its undefeated run to the national title. The Wildcats were playing from behind a lot of that game and will be extra motivated to get ahead on the scoreboard and stay there in Indianapolis Sunday night.

Kentucky hasn’t had many close calls this season but when coming off a tight game the Wildcats have responded with big performances. Following two close overtime wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, John Calipari’s kids trounced Alabama by 15 points. And after a two-point win against LSU, UK blasted South Carolina by 34 points. Of course, Wisconsin is a much stiffer challenge than those SEC rivals but this is a good habit of bouncing back strong from Kentucky, that isn't complacent just winning games.

Wisconsin was able to overwhelm Arizona inside and draw fouls on the Wildcats' key players. That forced Arizona to make some adjustments and step outside its game plan. The Badgers may have similar success versus Kentucky, but this brand of Wildcat runs much further down the bench and can pull four bodies deep from their reserves and not have the same letdown that Arizona suffered.

The Wildcats' habit of turning up the intensity and their deep rotation are why I’m playing on Kentucky as my 10* Game Of The Year Saturday.

I’m playing on the Over in Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils as my 10* Blue Chip Saturday.

Two teams, known for their gritty defensive play, are offering solid value for Over bettors in the Final Four Saturday night. Michigan State and Duke have leaned toward the Under for most of the NCAA tournament but there is an upswing in offense heading into this matchup and it opens value for the Over.

The Spartans have made magic this March, thanks in part to a stifling defense that has allowed only 60 points in regulation through its four tournament games. However, Michigan State is heating up offensively and has found its touch from beyond the arc. It knocked down 9-of-23 3-point attempts in the win over Louisville and buried nine triples in the win over Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.

That 3-point shooting will come in handy against a tough Duke interior defense that isn’t letting opponents get clean looks at the rim. The Blue Devils have more size inside versus the Spartans, who are one of the smaller teams in the country and the smallest of the Final Four contenders.

Duke will follow Louisville’s blueprint and attempt to draw the foul and the bucket inside for the 3-point play. The Cardinals got to the foul line 29 times, picking up 20 of those freebies, and scoring multiple and-1s to offset MSU’s outside shooting. The Blue Devils are shooting a blistering 80.9 percent from the stripe in their last three games, so they'll quickly stack the points from the foul line with the clock stopped.

The Spartans’ ability to knock down the 3-point and the Blue Devils picking up plenty of 3-point plays are why I’m playing on the Over in Michigan State vs. Duke as my 10* Blue Chip Saturday.

I’m playing on the Temple Owls as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

The Owls have steamrolled their way through the NIT and face Miami in the tournament semifinals. Temple won its last two games by a combined 31 points and has averaged 80 points in the NIT heading to Madison Square Garden.

Miami’s path to the tournament semis hasn’t been as smooth. The Hurricanes squeaked out a two-point win in Richmond to advance to MSG and has won their three NIT games by a combined 14 points. Miami doesn’t run the same pace as Temple nor has it been as efficient on offense, with the Owls knocking down 46 percent of their shot in the NIT.

Temple spreads its scoring load over three players, with Will Cummings, Jesse Morgan, and Quenton DeCosey making up a tough trio to lock down. The Hurricanes have been leaning on Sheldon McClellan, especially with star point guard Angel Rodriguez out with a wrist injury. While the Owls are getting it done with scoring, they also sat among the best defensive teams in the country, limiting opponents to just 61.2 points per game.

The Owls’ balanced scoring and momentum are why I’m playing on Temple as my 10* ESPN Main Event Tuesday.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. I have taken Louisville the past two games and I believe it's going to pay off for a third straight game as head coach Rick Pitino makes his 12th appearance in the Elite Eight.

The Cardinals definitely picked the right time to play their best basketball of the season and they are beating teams however they need to, whether with suffocating defense or balanced offense. This is a completely different team than the one we saw stumble for a stretch of three losses in four games in February and now the Cards are looking like world beaters - and they are still being underestimated by oddsmakers by getting points here against Michigan State.  

"At the beginning of the season, there was too much 1-on-1,'' guard Quentin Snider said after Friday's win over N.C. State. "Too many guys worried about themselves. Now, we're playing as a team."

Snider is right about that. Louisville is back to playing incredible team defense, throwing zones, presses and tough man-to-man play into the mix throughout games. The result is they are surrendering just 57.3 points per game through the tournament and that's against some pretty hot shooting teams like Northern Iowa and the Wolf Pack.

The Cardinals are also getting huge performances - from the usual stars and some emerging ones - on offense. Team leading scorer Terry Rozier is off the charts right now at guard and is coming off a 17-point performance and a season-high 14 rebounds against N.C. State.

Louisville had four scorers finish in double figures in the Sweet 16 including Montrezl Harrell's 24 points. Harrell is the second leading scorer and playing great ball but there's also Quentin Snider, a freshman who averaged just 4 points this season, who now has scored in double digits in all three tourney games.

It seems like everything is coming together at the right time for Louisville and I like them to slip past Michigan State. The Cardinals won the last tournament meeting between these two in 2012, 57-44, when Louisville went on to win the national championship. 10* Elite Eight Game Of The Year

I am playing on the UNDER. Both of these teams have played under the total in two of their three tournament games so far and I feel oddsmakers have set this number too high heading into their Elite Eight matchup.

Most of the trends in relation to the total are pointing towards the under and just to name a few: five of Notre Dame's last seven games have played under; six of Kentucky's last nine have gone under; the under is 14-3 in UK's last 17 non-conference games; the under is 7-2 in Kentucky's last nine neutral site games; the last two meetings have played under.

Trends aside, both teams are playing pretty solid defense right now with the Irish holding foes to 65 points or fewer in six of their last nine while Kentucky hasn't allowed more than 56 points in this year's tournament.

The Wildcats are coming off a 78-39 win over West Virginia, which was the fewest number of points allowed in a Sweet 16 matchup since 1975. That game fell under the closing total by 19.5 points.  

"They were what I thought they were," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters after the game. "That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against."

I think the public may be overlooking the defense here a little bit because of the talent level and hot shooting of these two teams. But I believe Notre Dame knows it simply can't expect to line up and out-talent Kentucky. I think we'll see a bit of a slower pace and some tough defense in this game and I believe the books have set this number far too high as a result. 10* O/U Total Of The Year

I’m playing on the Oklahoma Sooners as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

The Sooners have taken care of business in their first two tournament games and now face the Michigan State Spartans in the Round of 16 Friday. No. 3 Oklahoma has shown why it’s one of the most balanced teams in the country, getting it done on both ends of the floor in the NCAA so far.

However, the betting market is overreacting to Michigan State’s impressive upset over No. 2 Virginia in the Round of 32 and actually has the No. 7 Spartans set as the betting favorite. We’re capitalizing on this public opinion and taking the Sooners to cover.

The Spartans were solid in their win over the Cavaliers but also caught Virginia in a very poor game. The Cavaliers were ice cold from beyond the arc and didn’t play their brand of defense. Undoubtedly, Tom Izzo coached this team up for the upset but it also sets MSU up for a massive letdown in the Sweet 16.

Oklahoma plays a much more frenetic pace than what the Spartans are used to dealing with. The Sooners average 71.9 points on 69.9 possessions per game and will look to push the tempo and catch MSU on its heels before it can get set in the halfcourt. The Spartans have had great success stuffing teams with help defense in slower-paced games but won’t have that on their side as the Sooners turn up the intensity.

The market shift toward the Spartans and the Sooners’ ability to beat MSU down the floor are why I’m playing on Oklahoma as my 10* Friday Best Bet.

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. It seems like everyone kind of forgot Rick Pitino's teams can play some pretty good defense when they want to and as a result we are only seeing Louisville lay a tiny number here.

The Cards are playing their best hoops of the season at the right time and despite the national attention, it doesn't look to me like oddsmakers have quite caught on yet. The Cardinals have allowed fewer than 60 points in six of their last eight games and have allowed an average of 54 per game through their first two games of the tournament.

Louisville shut down one of the hottest shooting teams in the nation in Northern Iowa last game, winning 66-53. They held the Panthers to 39 percent on field goals (after a season average of 48%) and just 31.6% on 3-pointers after UNI shot over 40 percent from long range for the season. The Panthers also had a horrendous 10 turnovers against nine assists, a testament to the Cards' stifling play.

The Cards are switching it up with zones and man coverage as well as pressing at different times. I just don't feel N.C. State wants to get into that kind of game as a squad that gives up over 70 points a game on neutral courts this season.

The Cardinals are getting big offensive performances from their usual stars like Rozier and Harrell, but also from unexpected players like Quentin Snider who has 10 and 16 points in the tournament after averaging 3.8 all season.

With defense like Louisville is playing right now and production from unexpected places, don't be surprised if the Cards keep going into March and covering spreads along the way. 10* Friday Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Under in UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs as my 10* Blue Chip Friday.

The Bruins have shut their doubters up with a run to the Sweet 16 after many questioned their place in the field of 68 for the Big Dance. UCLA earned that spot in the tournament thanks to a late-season turnaround, sparked by a much more controlled pace and efficient offensive approach.

The Bruins aren’t pushing the tempo or launching as many shots as earlier in the schedule, which is something that will come in handy against Gonzaga. UCLA tried that run-and-gun style against the Bulldogs back in December, launching 60 shots and hitting only 41 percent while turning the ball over 12 times. Gonzaga came back with an efficient 58.5 percent shooting performance in an 87-74 victory that went Over the 146-point total.

Fast forward to March, and oddmakers have set a similar number for this Sweet 16 rematch. The Bruins are a much more methodical team with the basketball and won’t get into a track meet with the Zags, who have blown away their competition with an offense that puts up 79.5 points per game on 52.7 percent shooting.

For the Bulldogs, the key to avoiding another early exit will be to clip the Bruins' sharp shooting from beyond the arc and make them beat the Bulldogs on the blocks. UCLA has punished teams from outside in the tournament, knocking down 15 of their total 29 looks from distance. Gonzaga’s perimeter defenders will get their heels above the 3-point line and funnel the Bruins to their big men in the paint.

The Bruins' methodical approach and the Bulldogs taking away the 3-ball are why I’m playing on the Under in UCLA vs. Gonzaga as my 10* Blue Chip Friday.

I am playing on WISCONSIN. Beating the Badgers takes a lot more stopping potential national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and I don't feel the Tar Heels have enough to pull off the upset or cover the spread here.

Oregon tried to double team the big man, who averages 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.5 blocks. The Ducks swarmed and double teamed Kaminsky but he still managed 16 points while three of his teammates scored at least 12. Sam Dekker ripped off 17 - 14 in the second half- and is draining at least half his 2-pointers in four of his last five games.

Nigel Hayes is another versatile forward who hasn't scored fewer than 15 points in any of his last four games while also grabbing at least five boards in those efforts - not to mention an average of three assists per game during those games.

I just don't think UNC can match up in the front court here where big forward Kennedy Meeks is listed as doubtful and will likely be hurting if he does play.

The Badgers might just be too much for anybody right now with at least 70 points in seven straight games. Wisconsin can also play some defense with just 56.8 points against this season, which is about 12 fewer than UNC allows.

Bettors saw the value here on Wisconsin and pounced early. I still feel this line isn't high enough and UNC won't have the guns to keep up and cover the number. 10* Sweet 16 Game Of The Year

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I think we have some added value on the Irish in this game because most bettors are going to be focusing on the fact they have failed to cover in eight straight tournament games.

But don't let that scare you. The bigger focus should be on the two most recent games where Notre Dame just happened to be laying too many against two very good teams but still managed to gut out wins.

I'm not sure there are any other No. 3 seeds who had as tough an opening weekend as Notre Dame in facing Northeastern and Butler and I think the gritty victories will give the team a huge lift of confidence heading into the Sweet 16.

This is an offense vs. defense battle and I believe Notre Dame's No. 12 nationally ranked scoring offense will prevail. The Irish average 78.2 points per game and they rely on 50 percent field goal shooting and nearly 40 percent 3-point shooting to blow opponents away. It's how they claimed the ACC tournament championship in beating UNC 90-82.

Another element I like about the Irish is they adjusted from game to game in the first weekend and have done what they needed to do to advance. They got badly outrebounded by Northeastern 31-36, but they turned things around against Butler. Notre Dame won the boards 36-31 against a very good rebounding squad in Butler, which shows me they are adapting to who they're playing.

I think believe we'll see Notre Dame’s best game of the tournament when they face Wichita State and I love that they are getting points. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on LOUISVILLE. The Cardinals are in a good place as far as bettors are concerned coming into this matchup and it may not be what you think – it’s on the road and as an underdog.

This solid Louisville squad typically saw too much chalk at home this season and when favored in general and the numbers show it. The Cardinals were a wallet-burning 8-17 against the number as a favorite this season compared to 3-2 ATS as an underdog. They were also 4-12-2 ATS at home compared to a much less costly 7-7 ATS on the road.

So I really like that they are getting points here and I think it has a lot to do with how their first game went. Louisville barely scraped past UC Irvine 57-55 and I think that has them undervalued here.

A big reason why that game was so close was the matchup between Montrezl Harrell and UCI’s 7-foot-6, 300-pound center Mamadou Ndiaye. Normally Louisville doesn't have so much trouble in the post and the Cards need Harrell to play well in order to keep advancing. I think he'll do so against a more manageable Seth Tuttle, a 6-foot-8, 240-pound forward who will feel like a smurf compared to Ndiaye.

Northern Iowa also likes to beat up on teams with a hot 3-ball but Louisville is holding opponents to just 29.4 percent from long range this season and the numbers were even better on the road.

I think an undervalued, pro-coached Louisville squad moves past Northern Iowa in a tough game that will be worth watching. 10* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. After successfully taking Northeastern to cover the big number against the Irish, I now believe Notre Dame will win and cover in its next game on Saturday.

For those thinking Notre Dame just didn't play well on Thursday, I don't really think that was entirely the case. The Irish simply ran into a pretty good Northeastern team that was being undervalued by oddsmakers and they got the job done.

I think this second game is a better matchup for Notre Dame. Butler is a small squad with no player listed over 6-9 and it wins with defense and turnovers. I don't think they'll be able to slow a more talented Irish squad enough to cover the number and Notre Dame is usually pretty good at taking care of the ball.

I think Butler may have trouble keeping up with Notre Dame with this one with their leading scorer, Roosevelt Jones, playing on a sprained knee (if he does play). Jones was visibly limping when he returned to the game against Texas from the injury and with Notre Dame's 78.5 points per game, this is a team you need all your scorers for.

Notre game is shooting an awesome 51.2 percent on field goals on the season and 39.2 percent from downtown, which is significantly better than Butler in both areas.

One of the spots that could also really hurt Butler is free throw shooting where it drains shots at just 68.1 percent. Notre Dame isn't known for letting teams get to the line too often and I feel that could be a key difference in them getting Notre Dame its sixth covered spread in seven games. 10* personal fav

I’m playing on the Arkansas Razorbacks as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

Both North Carolina and Arkansas got a scare in the Round of 64, with UNC escaping with a win against Harvard and Arkansas just dodging the upset bullet versus Wofford. North Carolina is set as the favorite in this Round of 32 contest but will have a tough matchup with the Hogs.

Arkansas has one of the best big men in the country, with NBA-bound Bobby Portis coming off a 15-point, 13-rebound effort in the win over the Terriers. North Carolina is used to having the most talented forwards on the floor and could struggle to contain Portis, especially on the boards. The Heels depend on controlling the glass to give themselves second-chance looks and may not find those as easily Saturday.

North Carolina played a very sloppy game against the Crimson in the Round of 64, turning the ball over 18 times. The Heels coughed the ball up 13 times in the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC championship and average 16.3 turnovers over their last three games. Arkansas is one of the best pressure teams in the country, ranked 13th in turnovers forced (15.7 per game) and 29th in steals (7.7 points per game). Those takeaways led to easy buckets for the Razorbacks.

The Razorbacks matching UNC’s size inside and their ability to capitalize on a sloppy Tar Heels team are why I’m playing on Arkansas as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I am playing on IOWA. Davidson is one of those teams that poolies love to pencil in on their brackets before tourney time but I feel Iowa is the better squad and will move on from this matchup.

The Hawkeyes play much better defense in a tougher conference and I feel they'll be able to get the stops they need them to move past the Wildcats. Iowa also holds a size advantage over Davidson's starting five with the Wildcats' tallest starter going at 6-7 and the other four listed at 6-4 and smaller. The Hawkeyes have three starters at 6-9 or bigger and I feel Iowa can dominate around the basket and in rebounding.

Iowa's Aaron White could be the difference maker in this game as one of the nation's most underrated players. He's the only player in the country to average over 16 points and over seven rebounds, while shooting above a 50 percent from the field and 80 percent from the free throw line. White highlights a great free-throw shooting team in general, where the Hawkeyes rank 34th in the nation at the charity stripe compared to 273rd for Davidson.

The two teams had one common opponent this season, North Carolina, and Iowa fared much better. The Hawkeyes beat North Carolina on Dec. 3 while the Tar Heels defeated Davidson, 90-72, Nov. 11 in Charlotte.  10* Opening Game Of The Year

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. You don't often see revenge or redemption as a key factor in an early round NCAA matchup but I think it will be a big element for Oklahoma State in this game. 
The Cowboys fell to Oregon in the teams' NCAA opener in 2013 68-55 and Oklahoma State will be extra hungry to win this one on Friday. Le'Bryan Nash, Michael Cobbins and Phil Forte are all back for OK State after being key parts of that 2013 team, while Oregon doesn't have any returning players from 2013. 
That makes this a very young Ducks team with six freshman, half of whom have made at least 10 starts this season. That makes me skeptical about how far their experience level can take them when the spotlight of the NCAA tournament is shining on them. 
Oregon had a hot finish to the season but got absolutely clobbered by Arizona in the Pac-12 final, 80-52, when the pressure was on against a top team. 
I think Oklahoma State comes into this a little underestimated. Nash is an NBA prospect with 17.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and he's the kind of player who can take a game over. Phil Forte III also drains threes at 39 percent and averaged 15.1 points per game this season. 
Oklahoma State also ranked 22nd in blocks and 26th in steals per game this season and I think they surprise some people by advancing past Oregon. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on GEORGETOWN. Eastern Washington seems to be one of the more popular upset picks heading into March Madness but I'm not buying it. 
A big part of the hype is that the Eagles own the nation's top scorer in sophomore guard Tyler Harvey who averages 22.9 points per game. No doubt he's a great player but it's not like anyone is going to embarrass Georgetown at the guard position. 
The Hoyas have their own star guard in junior D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who tops the team with 16.2 points per game. To complement Smith-Rivera Georgetown has a big size advantage with the monstrous Joshua Smith. The 6-10, 350-pound beast averages 11.1 points and 5.9 rebounds and I think will give Eastern Washington a matchup fit with the Eagles' tallest starter being 6-8. 
Georgetown has depth advantage also with a regular rotation of seven players and eight players are averaging at least five points per game. 
Where I feel Eastern Washington is really going to lose out is on defense, where the Hoyas are considerably better. They allow almost 10 fewer points per game than the Eagles in a much tougher conference and own better defensive shooting numbers across the board than Eastern Washington. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Under in Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Wofford Terriers as my 10* Thursday Blue Chip.

The Razorbacks earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, which instantly put the Hogs on upset watch thanks to the No. 12-over-No. 5 stunner college basketball bettors get just about every Big Dance. And a close look at the odds in this matchup reveals that the oddsmakers don’t expect Arkansas and its high-scoring attack to dictate this game.

The Razorbacks are just 7.5-point favorites over the Terriers, who enter the tournament as one of the top defensive teams in the country. Wofford gives up just 59.8 points per contest, limiting foes to under 42 percent shooting, including drum-tight defense on the perimeter where it allows just 30.9 percent accuracy.

However, the Terriers' most important defensive attribute is their methodical pace on offense. Wofford averages only 63.5 possessions per game and ranks near the slowest offensive paces in the country.

Expect that tempo to screech to a standstill in this Thursday NCAA opener. Wofford, which is outclassed in talent and firepower, will attempt to neutralize the Razorbacks by holding on to the ball as long as it can before taking a shot late into the shot clock.

Wofford has an excellent backcourt and plays a smaller guard-orientated lineup, so while it will be undersized it won’t buckle under the Arkansas pressure defense. The Terriers turn the ball over just 10.8 times per game (34th fewest in the country) and will grab this game by the reigns and impose their slow-motion will on the Hogs.

The Terriers' methodical offensive attack and the Razorbacks’ pressure getting nullified are why I’m playing on the Under in Arkansas vs. Wofford as my 10* Thursday Blue Chip.

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins have taken a lot of flak for even being named to the tournament but that gives them a little extra from oddsmakers in my opinion. 
The Bruins played the toughest schedule of any Pac-12 team and I think their record is a little better than the numbers indicate. They’ll play another tough opponent and UCLA definitely holds an experience edge with this being their third straight NCAA tournament. SMU was strong all season but I expect they’ll feel the heat of the raised stakes in what will be the Mustangs’ first tourney appearance since 1993. 
UCLA is playing its best ball of the season with nine wins in its last 13 regular season games and the Bruins were one of the best bets in the country during that stretch with 10 covered spreads. They threatened Arizona in the Pac-12 tourney, who is a legit Final Four possibility. 
The Bruins feature five players who average double figures this season and they are averaging an explosive 81 points per game over their last five. They’re shooting 52 percent from field goal range and better than 44 percent from downtown over those games. 
If they can make this a shooting contest against SMU, and I believe they can, I think they move on to the next round. They should also approach this game with all the pressure squarely on SMU after the media ripped the tournament committee all week after giving them a ticket to the Dance. 10* Thurs. Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. Under just about any other circumstance this season, I don't believe there's any way UConn would only be favored by only a few points at home against an Arizona State squad. 
But there's a factor in this point spread that won't show up on the stats sheet and that's the letdown factor. UConn, who is coming off a national championship from a year ago, knew the only way it was going to qualify for the tournament was by winning the AAC tournament. Just like last year and just like once before that when the school amazingly went on to win the NCAA title. 
And it seemed fated for a while over the weekend when UConn stormed to the title game but ultimately fell to SMU in a tough game where team star Ryan Boatright was held to just seven points on 1-for-7 field goal shooting and 1-for-9 3-point shooting. 
Now the Huskies have to somehow find a way to pick their tails up from between their legs and convince themselves the NIT is worth tying up their laces for. 
"We’ve got another opportunity to play in front of our fans, put that jersey on,” said head coach Kevin Ollie. “Basically, that’s it." 
Yep. Basically that's about it. 
I also like the fact that the NIT is experimenting with a shorter, 30 second shot clock which cuts five seconds off the current number. That should encourage a faster pace, which leans to Arizona State’s favor.  10* Best Bet

I am playing on UTEP.  What is often the biggest factor in the NIT tournament is one that will never show up on a stats sheet or box score. It's the motivation factor. 
In this case I feel Murray State won't have it after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament following a soul crushing loss to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game two weekends ago. 
It was an 88-87 scrape-out win for Belmont that came on a miracle three-pointer with 3.2 seconds left and it's that one-point that makes it so tough for Murray State.  
“That’s the first time I’ve walked through a handshake line and I had nothing to say,” Murray State coach Steve Prohm said last week. “I tried to be as gracious as I could, but everything was just knocked out of you. Our guys were just an emotional wreck.”
The loss snapped an incredible 25-game winning streak - including a 16-0 record in conference play - for the Racers that was rendered irrelevant by one precious point.
If the Racers played sooner after that loss, I think it might have been better for them. But 11 days is a long time to think about what went wrong and I don't think the layoff does them any favors here. 
Their hopes were crushed again on Selection Sunday when they weren't chosen for the tournament instead of having their attention focused on this game.
UTEP didn't have that problem and the NIT could be an opportunity to make it to MSG. I love that they are getting points here and they should be motivated to play on national TV in March with the chance to pull off a decent team in its own gym. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the SMU Mustangs as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

Southern Methodist has proven it is the class of the AAC all season and can lock up a conference it’s dominated with a win over UConn in the conference tournament championship Sunday. The Mustangs are coming off a very impressive victory over Temple in the AAC semifinals, taking down a talented Owls team in a 69-56 win.

Southern Methodist isn’t going to be taking the Huskies lightly and, in fact, will be out for some revenge Sunday after losing to Connecticut in their most recent meeting – an 81-73 loss in Storrs back on March 1. The Mustangs did handle the Huskies at home with a 73-55 victory in mid-February, limiting UConn to 34 percent shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

Southern Methodist is well aware the Huskies have a home-court edge in Hartford, where the UConn faithful have not been kind to SMU so far this weekend, raining down boos and chants of “overrated” during the Mustangs’ matchups. Head coach Larry Brown will undoubtedly use that challenge to spark a fire under his players Sunday.

SMU is ranked among the top defenses in the country, allowing just 59.9 points per game, and will turn its attention to Connecticut star Ryan Boatright, who is the heart and soul of the UConn offense. The Mustangs will throw their pressure at the Huskies, hoping to capitalize with easy buckets off of turnovers, but can also plug up the paint, having shown a solid zone defense in the win over Temple.

The Mustangs hard-nosed defense and dominance over this conference all season are why I’m playing on SMU as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Under in SMU Mustangs vs. UConn Huskies as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Mustangs have maintained their place atop the AAC all season thanks to an elite defense that ranks 29th in the country, giving up just 59.9 points on 38.1 percent shooting. Southern Methodist locked down a very talented Temple team to just 56 points in Saturday’s semifinal win, limiting the Owls to 29 percent shooting, including a 4-for-24 night from beyond the arc. The Mustangs do a good job limiting the 3-ball, with foes shooting only 33 percent from distance against SMU. That will come in handy against a Connecticut team that has relied on big 3-pointers to fuel another improbable postseason run. UConn has also been sound defensively, especially versus Tulsa, which shot just 29.6 percent in that 47-42 loss. The Huskies could play their way into the NCAA tournament with a victory Sunday and have gone 18 for 46 from 3-point range in the first two games of the tournament – 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Huskies got five of those 3-balls from standout Ryan Boatright Saturday. As Boatright goes, so does UConn, and the Mustangs will be keeping a close tab on him in Sunday’s title game, not allowing him to get hot from deep. Connecticut has played Under the total in both AAC tournament games and the Mustangs are coming off an Under win in the victory against Temple. These schools went Over the total in both previous meetings this season but we expect this game to have that tight and grinding playoff style we’ve seen so far in this tournament. The Mustangs’ defense and ability to shut down the 3-pointer and the Huskies’ current Under trend are why I’m playing on the Under in SMU vs. UConn as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs take on the upstart Wyoming Cowboys in the Mountain West Conference championship, following Wyoming’s stunning overtime victory against Boise State Friday night. The Cowboys are ripe for a letdown in this short turnaround, taking on an SDSU squad that has played in the conference title game in six of the last seven seasons.

The Aztecs won both meetings against Wyoming this season, dropping the Cowboys 67-41 at home and 60-52 on the road. San Diego did take advantage of a shorthanded Cowboys roster in that most recent meeting, with Wyoming star Larry Nance Jr. dealing with illness. However, SDSU has locked down all comers during its first two games of the MWC tournament, including a 56-43 win over Colorado State Friday, and will be up to the challenge again Saturday.

On top of that smothering defense, the Aztecs have three proven scorers in Dwayne Polee, Winston Shepard and Aqeel Quinn. That trio combined for 44 points in the win over the Rams, and all three average double figures on the season. The Cowboys have a tough defense – ranked sixth in the country – but may not have the scoring depth to keep up with SDSU. Outside of Nance, Wyoming leans heavily on Josh Adams to spark the offense. If the Aztecs defense can take one of those two away, the Cowboys could crumble under the big-game pressure.

The Cowboys primed for a letdown and the Aztecs' championship experience are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the VCU Rams as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Rams have some unfinished business with the Davidson Wildcats in the Atlantic 10 semifinals Saturday. Virginia Commonwealth, which welcomed the Wildcats to the A-10 with a 71-65 win back in January, took one on the chin in their most recent meeting.

Davidson handed VCU its worse loss of the Shaka Smart era, dropping the Rams 82-55 just last week. That one-sided defeat was part of a season-ending slide for VCU, which tumbled from first to fifth in the conference while the Wildcats caught fire and took over the No. 1 seed for the tournament. We expect this to be a huge revenge spot for VCU, which is always a dangerous underdog come March.

The Rams will throw their famed pressure defense at the Wildcats attack, looking to cause chaos and score off of Davidson’s mistakes. Virginia Commonwealth forced and average of 16.6 turnovers per contest and ranked second in the country in steals, swiping nearly 10 per game. In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Rams forced 15 turnovers and recorded 13 steals.

Davidson may be slowing down after an incredible run. The Wildcats nearly got upset by La Salle Friday night, shooting just 39 percent from the field while allowing the Explorers to knock down half their looks . They were down as many as 18 points – a deficit the Rams won’t relinquish if they get up Saturday.

The Rams out for revenge and the Wildcats perhaps peaking too soon are why I’m playing on VCU as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Oklahoma State Cowboys as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

Oklahoma State runs into a familiar foe in its opening game of the Big 12 tournament, facing the Oklahoma Sooners at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Cowboys sputtered down the stretch, picking up just one win in their last six conference contests. But when Bedlam is involved, recent records can get tossed out the window. We see great value with the Pokes in this heated matchup.

Oklahoma State dropped both meetings with Oklahoma this season but present a challenge to the Sooners. Beating a team three times in one season is a tough task for even the best teams. Oklahoma closed the schedule with a big win over Kansas but has been soft defensively to end the season. The Sooners allowed 73 points to Kansas and 77 in a loss to Iowa State in their final two games. They also barely escaped with a 79-75 overtime win at TCU on February 21.

The Cowboys offense is hoping to find its form after watching its production drop the few past weeks. Oklahoma State did get some encouraging results in its 82-70 win over Texas Christian and scored 72 points in a loss to West Virginia to end the year. Standout guard Phil Forte II is finally starting to feel healthy again after battling the flu for most of February and is anxious to get another shot at the Sooners, who the Pokes have gone 3-0 SU against in the Big 12 tournament.

The Sooners softening on defense and the Cowboys out for revenge on the big stage are why I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Best Bet Thursday.

I am playing on MINNESOTA.  There is no way around this one – Rutgers is just plain horrible and I think the Scarlett Knights will be happy to be put out of their misery on Wednesday. 
The Knights will already be deer in headlights in their first Big Ten tournament, much like they were for most of the season.  They lost 10 conference games by double digits this season and went 0-9 on the road so it shouldn’t matter much that oddsmakers are handing them a bunch of points. 
Rutgers ranks last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (59 points) and in 3-pointers per game (4.7) and ranks second last in turnovers. The Gophers learned how generous the Knights can be in the last meeting when they coughed up the ball 19 times in a game Minnesota won 89-80. 
The Knights enter this matchup on a 14-game losing streak and they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. They’re shooting worse than 40 percent over their last five games from field goal range and that’s just not going to be good enough to cover the spread in this one. 
I believe it helps a bit that Minnesota comes in into this one off a pair of losses. I think that means the Gophers will be a little hungrier to beat up on this Rutgers squad.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PORTLAND. I think the Pilots are being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here in the WCC tournament contest in Las Vegas.  Portland is smaller than just about everybody and it faces a BYU squad that comes in on a seven-game winning streak. But BYU also enters on a one-game against-the-spread losing streak and I think that’s because the Cougars are overvalued heading into this tournament.  BYU comes into Las Vegas a little overconfident after a win over Gonzaga just before the tourney and the Cougs needed some late heroics to pull past inferior Santa Clara in the tournament opener. The Pilots, meanwhile, are coming off possibly their best game of the season.  Portland played some fantastic team basketball and held a very good St. Mary’s squad to just 30.2 percent shooting in a 69-52 thrashing in their tournament opener. The Pilots held the Gaels to just 2-of-16 shooting from 3-point land and four Pilots finished in double figures as they shared the ball around the court for great looks at the hoop.  I think we may be looking at a dangerous Portland team that could storm its way to the finals of this event if it keeps playing like it did Saturday. I especially like the Pilots Monday night when they are getting this many points on a neutral court.  10* Main Event

I am playing on MINNESOTA. I love the Gophers in this early Sunday afternoon contest for a few key reasons and two of them are that it’s Senior Day and that it’s a must-win situation for Minnesota.  Five seniors will play their final home game on Sunday, where the Gophers typically look like a much better team compared to their play on the road (they are 7-7 ATS at home versus 4-8 ATS at home this season). I’m expecting a crowd that will push the decibel levels in a contest that will be featured on the Big Ten Network, especially considering Minnesota will clinch a spot in the Big Ten tournament with a victory here after Northwestern fell to Iowa on Saturday.   This crowd will be especially hungry for the W against a Penn State squad that beat Minnesota in the first meeting of the season back in January. If the Gophers show up, I really don’t anticipating them having much trouble with the Lions. Penn State has chosen the closing stretch to play its worst basketball of the season and the Nits have now lost six in a row and failed to cover in five of those.  Penn State has been a special kind of bad on the road lately too, failing to score even 60 points in any of its last four road outings. I think the Lions will struggle mightily against a Minnesota squad that ranks fourth in the nation in steals per game (9.8) and fifth in turnover margin (5.0) this season.  10* Breakfast Club

I’m playing on the North Carolina Tar Heels as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

The Tar Heels and Blue Devils add another chapter to college basketball’s best rivalry, with North Carolina out to avenge a 92-90 loss to Duke in Durham last month. The Heels are slim favorites in this important matchup, trying to better its spot in the ACC tournament pecking order.

North Carolina dominated the paint in its previous meeting with Duke, scoring 62 points inside and pulling down 17 offensive rebounds. If it wasn’t for a hot shooting night for Duke. especially beyond the arc, UNC would have walked away with the win in Durham.

The Blue Devils won’t have the Cameron Crazies on their side Saturday. Duke is shooting 37.3 percent from beyond the arc on the road, knocking down seven triples per contests. North Carolina has been stellar at defending the deep ball this season, limiting visitors to just 29 percent shooting from distance in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina has a safety net with its offense and doesn’t depend on those long looks to fall. The Tar Heels will impose their physical play on the Blue Devils, pounding away for 40 minutes and picking up plenty of second-chance looks with their athletic forwards cleaning the glass. North Carolina ranks ninth in the country in offensive rebounds at 12.2 per game.

The Tar Heels out for revenge and their ability to snuff out the Blue Devils' 3-point looks are why I’m playing on North Carolina as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns head into the final Big 12 game of the schedule versus Kansas State, firming resting on the NCAA tournament bubble. Texas is coming off a win against a ranked Baylor squad after missing chances to boost its March resume versus Kansas and West Virginia in the previous two games. Now, this final game could either make or break the Horns’ season.

We expect Texas not to take any chances with a dangerous Kansas State squad and leave it all out on the floor. Making the tournament cut could also be the determining factor whether head coach Rick Barnes keeps his job or not. So there is plenty of added motivation to finish Big 12 play with a bang.

The Wildcats are coming off two huge wins, taking down Kansas and Iowa State - setting up a masisve letdown spot Saturday. Kansas State scored 70 points in each of those respective upsets, getting a big boost from the home crowd in Manhattan. However, now KSU must hit the highway where it's struggled mightily this season.

Kansas State is just 1-7 SU on the road in Big 12 play, covering the spread just once in its last five away from home. The Wildcats, who average only 61.1 points as visitors, are just 3-16 SU in true road games the last two years.

The Longhorns’ added motivation and the Wildcats road woes are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my 10* ESPN Main Event.

The Golden Gophers play host to the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers Thursday night. Minnesota is coming off a big win over Michigan State, snapping a three-game skid, and looks to build off that victory against another Big Ten powerhouse.

These teams played just two Saturdays ago, with Wisconsin edging Minnesota 63-53 in Madison. The Golden Gophers covered as 15-point road underdogs despite an off night for leading scorer Andre Hollins, who went just 1 for 8 from the field for two points. Minnesota was within one point midway through the first half and cut the lead to eight late in the second before the Badgers shut the door with some big 3-point buckets.

The Gophers were one of just four Big Ten teams that beat the Badgers on the boards, out-rebounding Wisconsin 28-25 including holding it to just five offensive rebounds. Minnesota has picked up its presence on the glass in the last three games and must limit the amount of second-chance looks Wisconsin scoops up Thursday.

Minnesota has had Wisconsin’s number when it comes to covering the spread. The Golden Gophers are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Badgers, including a 3-1-1 ATS mark in their last four home stands against Wisconsin.

The Golden Gophers building off their recent win and their ATS success against the Badgers are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* ESPN Main Event Thursday.

I’m playing on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.


The Scarlet Knights have dropped 12 straight games and don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Rutgers does, however, present some excellent line value hosting the Maryland Terrapins Tuesday night.


The Terps come into this Big Ten battle on a five-game winning streak, including a pair of impressive home victories over Wisconsin and Michigan last week. Maryland is a shoe-in for a ticket to the Big Dance and will likely do some damage in the conference tournament. This could have the Terrapins sitting fat and happy heading to Jersey, where they’re giving a lot of points.


Rutgers covered as a 14-point underdog in a 73-65 loss at Maryland back in January and is coming off a strong effort against Purdue this weekend, falling 92-85 as a 13.5-point pup. The Scarlet Knights throw plenty of size at opponents and boast some versatile talents that can give teams matchup fits. They have the chops to scare some big-name teams, with an outright upset win of Wisconsin earlier this year.


Maryland can do some damage from distance, averaging almost eight 3-pointers per game on 38 percent shooting. Rutgers has checked opponents to just 30.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc at home and without those easy looks from outside, the Terps may not be able to put enough distance between them and the Knights to cover this hefty spread.


The Terrapins ripe for a letdown and the Scarlet Knights tightening up on 3-point shooters are why I’m playing on Rutgers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

The Longhorns’ NCAA tournament window is closing. Texas balked at opportunities to boost its March Madness resume with losses to ranked West Virginia and Kansas last week, and this Monday's matchup with Lone Star State rivals, the Baylor Bears, could be the Horns’ final chance to impress the selection committee.

On top of that motivation to secure an at-large bid before the Big 12 tournament tips, Texas could also be playing for head coach Rick Barnes’ job. There is a strong call for the coach to be fired following a disappointing season in Austin. We expect an all-or-nothing effort from the Longhorns at home Monday night.

Baylor is rolling along, winning four straight contests and seven of its last nine Big 12 games. That stretch includes a one-sided win over Texas, knocking off their state enemy at home 83-60. The Longhorns, who will have revenge on their minds in the rematch, shot just 38.6 percent from the field in that loss, including going 5 for 26 from beyond the arc.

Texas is much better team in front of the home faithful, averaging 71.3 points for and allowing just 57.2 points against inside the Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The Longhorns put together one of their best defensive efforts in the loss to the Jayhawks, blocking a school-record 14 shots and limiting KU to 36 percent shooting – including just 1-for-8 shooting from beyond the arc. Texas can build off that performance in this must-win game Monday.

The Longhorns desperate to build their tournament resume and coming off one of their best defensive effort are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Monday.

I’m playing on the Ohio State Buckeyes as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

The Buckeyes were among the Top 25 programs in the country for a while but a recent skid has dropped them from the national polls and has Ohio State’s NCAA tournament future a little hazy. The Buckeyes still have work to do to avoid having their March Madness bubble burst and can’t afford a poor outing against the Purdue Boilermakers at home Sunday.

Two recent road losses to Michigan State and Michigan, and a road loss to Purdue have Ohio State’s pedigree in questions. The Buckeyes have been able to take care of the weaker Big Ten schools – like their 81-57 blowout of Nebraska last time out – but lack some beef on their resume. This is a revenge spot for OSU, which can erase that 60-58 loss in West Lafayette and give it some momentum heading into the final week of the season and Big Ten tournament.

The Boilermakers throw a lot of size at the Buckeyes, but barely won the battle on the boards in their last game versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been strong on the glass in their last three games, limiting opponents to just 7.3 offensive rebounds while collecting an average of 10 offensive boards of their own in that span.

Ohio State has also done a great job of avoiding shot blockers – getting stuffed just 2.6 times per game – and knows it must attack Purdue’s big men and get them in foul trouble to open up this game. The Buckeyes shot just nine free throws in the last meeting with the Boilermakers, but has already seen an uptick in aggressive play, getting to the stripe 22 times in their win over the Cornhuskers.

The Buckeyes solid work on the boards and desperation for a resume win at home are why I’m playing Ohio State as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the BYU Cougars as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

Brigham Young is one squad no one wants to see make the tournament cut. The Cougars are a live bubble team but lack big-name wins on their NCAA resume. They can fill that gap with a victory over Gonzaga Saturday.

Brigham Young is a lofty road underdog against the projected tournament No. 1, seed but there is serious motivational value with BYU in this do-or-die situation. The Cougars have covered the spread in five straight games while Gonzaga is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven WCC games. The Bulldogs are no longer the mid-major darling and oddsmakers have treated them like an elite program, stacking a pile of points on the line for each of their outings.

The Cougars are the most explosive offensive team in the country, topping the land with 84.4 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting. Brigham Young has two superstars in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, as well as boasts four players averaging more than 13 points per game on the year. They’re a tough team to key on, with nearly every starter presenting a scoring threat.

BYU runs one of the faster paces in the country, with 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs don’t have those same wheels and rely on their loaded frontcourt to do damage inside and open up the wings for open shooters. The Cougars look to put Gonzaga on its heels and beat those big men down the floor. Gonzaga’s lone loss on the season came against Arizona in overtime, with the Wildcats possessing similar scoring depth on their roster.

The Cougars desperate for a resume win and their explosive offense are why I’m playing on BYU as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Aztecs play host to the Boise State Broncos at Viejas Arena Saturday, looking to snuff out Boise State’s NCAA tournament hopes. The Broncos are on the NCAA bubble – the same spot in which they sat last year around this time. Boise State crumbled under the pressure and missed out on the big dance last season and we expect a similar situation on the road against the Mountain West Conference’s top team.

San Diego State has jumped to the top of the conference with a red-hot four-game winning streak, which included wins over programs like Wyoming, Colorado State (two teams on its heels in the standings) and old rival New Mexico. In fact, the Aztecs most recent loss came at the hands of the Broncos, losing 61-46 in Boise in what was SDSU’s worst showing of the season. There is a heated revenge spot here for San Diego State, who won’t be taking BSU lightly.

The Broncos have never defeated SDSU on the road and face an Aztecs defense that doesn’t allow much room when in the role of host. San Diego State is giving up only 47.3 points per home game – lowest in the entire country – and limiting visitors to just 35.6 percent shooting.

The Broncos crumbling under the bubble and the Aztecs out for revenge at home are why I’m playing on San Diego State as my 10* Personal Favorite.

I am playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols may look like a weakening team with three straight losses coming into this game, but I think you have to look at the competition they've faced and realize this is a great spot to play on them.  The Vols lost to three of the top five teams in the SEC heading into this matchup and now they face the so-so Vols, who are just 5-9 in conference play this season. I think they'll bounce back against their state rivals on home court and will be fully revitalized after the tough stretch of schedule.  Tennessee is playing its first weekday SEC game on a Thursday this season. Every other weekday game has been on a Tuesday or Wednesday for them in conference play and coach Donnie Tyndall took full advantage by giving his team two full days off before returning to practice on Tuesday.  The Vols needed the rest and returned to have a great practice on Tuesday and I expect them to come back and sweep the season series with Vandy. Tennessee won the first meeting 76-73 in OT, which was actually the Vols' last win.  Four players finished in double figures for the Vols and Josh Richardson annihilated Vandy with 27 points. I think we'll see a similar story again on Thursday from a fully recharged Vols squad. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on UCONN. I feel the Huskies are getting a great number from oddsmakers here and it's because UConn has lost and failed to cover in six of its last seven games on the road. 

Why that makes this a great spot is because the two most recent road losses came against good teams in two of the toughest places to pull off a road win in college hoops right now - Memphis and SMU. They were tough losses and the truth is that the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season right now with four wins in their last six games overall.

Six-foot-seven shooting guard Daniel Hamilton is playing his best and most consistent basketball of the season and was very close to pulling off triple-doubles in each of his last two games. UConn is giving him the ball more on offense because he can shoot from anywhere but also loves to dish and rebound. It's opened up the floor and I feel the Huskies are playing their best team ball of the year.

UConn isn't a great bet this year overall at 8-15 against the spread but another reason I like this play is most bettors don't realize the Huskies are a much better bet on the road than at home. They are just 2-7 against the spread at home and 6-8 ATS on the road. 

It may not sound like much, but I think the way the Huskies are playing right now they are just a much better team than ECU and oddsmakers are giving them a generously small number to cover. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the West Virginia Mountaineers as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

West Virginia has a ton of momentum heading into the home stretch of the Big 12 schedule, taking a win over Kansas and, most recently, grabbing a huge road victory over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Mountaineers can continue to puff up their NCAA resume and gain ground before the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tuesday.

The Mountaineers won’t be looking past the Longhorns after those impressive victories. Texas has a victory over WVU already this season, smashing West Virginia 77-50 in Austin back on January 17 – the Horns' lone win over a Top 50 RPI team. This is a big revenge spot for the Mountaineers, especially with a coach like Bob Huggins who will use everything he can to fuel his players’ fire.

West Virginia shot a dismal 24 percent from the field in that loss to Texas, including a 6-for-20 performance from beyond the arc. It was an ugly game for both programs, with a total of 36 turnovers. Needless to say, WVU will have a much sharper game at home where it averages 76.4 points per game.

The Mountaineers will look to overwhelm the Horns’ bigger lineup with their frantic pace that averages 72.2 possessions per game. West Virginia will beat the Texas 2-3 zone back before it can set up and press on defense, getting in the face of the Texas backcourt. The Longhorns depend on the size up front to keep them in games but WVU’s quickness in transition will erase that edge.

The Mountaineers out for revenge and ready to run the Longhorns out of the gym are why I’m playing on West Virginia as my 10* Main Event Tuesday.

I am playing on ST. JOHN'S. I like the Johnnies to claim their second win in nine days against the Musketeers on home court at MSG in a big TV game on FOX Sports 1.

Xavier coach Chris Mack called the Red Storm "the most athletic team" in the Big East and he might just be right. St. John's has four players who average at least 13 points per game and D'Angelo Harrison is one of the most athletic in the league.

Harrison averages 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and can shoot from everywhere, not to mention can play some defense too. Harrison scored 18 against the Musketeers in the last meeting (which is Xavier's only loss in its last five games) but the Johnnies' Sir'Dominic Painter provided even bigger problems.

Painter racked up 24 points on 9-of-10 field goal shooting and was a beast on defense with four steals and two blocks.

Xavier struggled with that inside-outside threat from St. John's and also the depth problem. Xavier likes to be able to beat teams with its own depth where scoring is balanced and seven players average at least six points. Against most squads in the Big East, that's a tough challenge to overcome over the course of a full game, but not so much for St. John's.

The Red Storm have won four of their last five games and are starting to round into their best form of the season as tournament time draws near. I don't think oddsmakers set this tiny spread high enough, especially on home court where St. John's tends to play tougher defense. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

The Huskies are desperate for a win after dropping back-to-back road games to Memphis and Southern Methodist. Connecticut will take that frustration out on Tulane Sunday, matching up with a Green Wave program that has just one victory in its last seven outings, including a 62-53 loss to UConn at home on February 7.

Tulane stunned Cincinnati last weekend then promptly suffered a letdown against Central Florida this week, falling 69-55 as a 7-point home favorite. The Green Wave don’t pack much of a scoring punch, averaging just 64.8 points per game on the season and consistently playing below that bar during conference play, being held to 55 points or less in seven straight contests.

The Huskies aren’t the most explosive team on offense either but do have the horses to run up the score, especially with the way Daniel Hamilton is emerging as a scoring threat. The UConn freshman had 25 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the loss to Memphis. Hamilton - a 6-foot-7 guard - is a tough matchup for even a good defense and should give Tulane fits as he blossoms into an elite talent.

Storrs is always a tough place to play – regardless of how good or bad UConn is. The Huskies will have a decisive home-court edge, allowing only 55.4 points per home game (almost 10 points fewer than on the road) and forcing foes to shoot just 36.8 percent in those games.

The Huskies hungry for a win at home and the Green Wave’s miserable offensive outings are why I’m playing on Connecticut as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the St. Mary’s Gaels as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

The Gaels welcome the rival Gonzaga Bulldogs to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga for a game that is always circled for the Gaels. These clashes with Gonzaga often dictate the pecking order in the West Coast Conference and can be the difference between making the cut and getting snubbed on Selection Sunday for St. Mary’s. There is no bigger game than hosting the Zags for SMC.

The Gaels have plenty to prove Saturday after getting rolled by the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season. St. Mary’s was trumped 68-47, shooting a dismal 36 percent from the field, including a 2-for-15 performance from beyond the arc. We expect a much different outcome from the Gaels this time around, averaging nearly 11 points more at home than compared to the road.

Gonzaga has wobbled at bit at the top of the WCC and has covered just once in its last five conference games. The Bulldogs are on track for a No. 1 seed in the tournament - if they can avoid a conference loss – and the market is not giving the Zags any wiggle room when it comes to their nightly spreads. Gonzaga is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six conference road stops while the Gaels have covered in seven of their last eight WCC contests.

The Gaels' big-game motivation and the Bulldogs’ troubles covering on the road are why I’m playing on St. Mary’s as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

I’m playing on the Texas Longhorns as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Longhorns host the Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 battle to cap off Rivalry Week. Texas is eager to get back on the court and erase a bad loss at Oklahoma earlier this week, allowing the Sooners to put up 71 points on the Horns’ 20th-ranked defense. We expect a rededication to stopping the basketball from Rick Barnes’ kids Saturday.

Iowa State finally picked up a conference road win with a challenging victory in Stillwater over the Oklahoma State Cowboys this week. The Cyclones, however, are a much different squad when they hit the highway, averaging just 61.8 points as visitors. That’s a big drop off in production compared to ISU’s scoring average of 73.5 points per game at home. Texas’ tight defense will look to exploit that inability to produce in enemy territory.

The Longhorns aren’t lost on how a win over Iowa State would look on their NCAA resume. Texas can drastically improve its seeding in the national tournament and send a statement through the Big 12 with a victory at home Saturday.

The Horns have seen an improvement on offense in recent games and played one of their best scoring contests in an 89-86 loss in Ames on January 26. They’re generating more scoring chances through their playbook, rather than relying on their dominance on the boards and second-chance looks. Iowa State is one of the softer defenses in the Big 12 and can find itself lost if unable to simply overwhelm opponents with offense.

The Cyclones' issues away from home and the Longhorns’ defense ready to rebound are why I’m playing on Texas as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on MEMPHIS. These two teams are tied for fifth in the AAC and the top five teams get a bye in the conference tournament, so this game may have a little added intensity to it.

I love that Memphis is at home at the FedEx Forum, which could be the biggest crowd UConn has played in front of all season. That's not exactly what the Huskies need right now because the road hasn't been kind to them, where they've failed to cover in four of their last five tries. Some were questioning whether the crowd got to them Saturday night in Dallas at SMU, where UConn got waxed 73-55 and seemed to soften up as the game went on.

The news gets better for this play because the Tigers are actually the best home team in college hoops since 2004-05 with 188 wins and just 25 losses. Memphis is 7-5 against the number at home this year compared to 3-7 on the road and pretty much all the numbers that matter are better for Memphis at home compared to overall this season.

For whatever it's worth, the Tigers are also 4-0 at home against defending national champions, which most recently includes a win over Louisville last year, who won the championship in 2013.

Memphis might have the player with the hottest hand on Thursday also with Shaq Goodwin. Goodwin is averaging 13.8 points and 12.8 boards over his last four games. He's picking up the slack for team leading scorer Austin Nchols, who is out with a sprained ankle.

Nichols is questionable Thursday night but if he does end up playing, I love Memphis even more here. If he doesn't play, I still like the Tigers on home court against a UConn squad that has been a little timid on the road lately. 10* ESPN Main Event

I am playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON. I think we will see a very inspired, very desperate Colonials squad Wednesday night that will give Davidson one of its best efforts of the season.

George Washington badly needs some decent wins in order to boost its NCAA tournament chances, but it can also climb its way up the A 10 standings with a strong finish. A win over Davidson would be a great start as Davidson sits just one game above GW in the conference and the Colonials, despite being in sixth place, sit just two games out of first.

I think George Washington will bounce back with some grit and intensity after having a 12-game home winning streak snapped over the weekend against VCU. I believe the Colonials' tough defense will prevail against a high flying Davidson team that has a tendency to try to simply out-score opponents and as a result can get soft on defense.

GW ranks second in the conference in 2-point percentage defense and allows just 62.8 points at home. I expect Patricio Garino to have a big game as one of just two players in the A 10 who ranks in the top 20 in the league in scoring, rebounding, steals, field goal shooting and free throw percentage.

A sloppy free-throw percentage is something that has hurt the Colonials in recent games but I think those types of issues are easy ones to clean up in practice and I expect to see improvement there Wednesday night.

Davidson has allowed at least 69 points in its last four road games and I think they'll struggle against a GW squad that will grind this game down to a slower pace. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the New Mexico Lobos as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

New Mexico holds home court against the No. 25 San Diego State Aztecs, trying to snap a four-game losing skid Tuesday night. The Lobos’ losing ways have puffed this line up and given solid value to a tough home team hungry for a victory.

Three of those last four losses have come away from The Pit, one of the most notorious venues in college basketball. The Lobos are a different team at home, especially when it comes to defending the basketball. They’re giving up just 55.5 points per game as hosts – compared to 62.2 on the road – and limiting opponents to 36.6 percent shooting in those home stands.

San Diego State could be ripe for a letdown in this game. The Aztecs toppled Wyoming and Colorado State, two teams chasing them in the MWC standings last week. They’re just 2-6 ATS away from home and haven’t been able to find the same defensive edge when taking the role of the visitors. San Diego State limits foes to a mere 47.3 points per home game but has watched the number balloon to 62.2 point on the road.

This is a very prideful New Mexico program that wants to prove it is still one of the gatekeepers in the Mountain West Conference. With the Lobos likely not making the NCAA cut, spoiling the party for the Aztecs is plenty of motivation for Craig Neal and his kids.

The Lobos' toughness at home and the Aztecs' defensive troubles on the road are why I’m playing on New Mexico as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Georgetown Hoyas as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

The Hoyas look to lay some lumber on the St. John’s Red Storm at home, leaning on their size and physical play in the paint – on offense and defense – Tuesday night. Georgetown is a tall task for the Johnnies, exploiting some size mismatches with its methodical Princeton offense.

The Hoyas can put the breaks on an up-tempo athletic Red Storm squad, which doesn’t have the same height among its key contributors. St. John’s tallest players hardly see the floor, outside of 6-foot-10 center Chris Obekpa, and the Red Storm don’t have the depth to try and match the Hoyas’ big men.

St. John’s only runs about eight deep into the rotation while Georgetown’s phenomenal freshmen have allowed John Thompson III to go way down his bench and throw multiple looks at opponents. The Hoyas have seven players scoring 5.5 points or more and nine players picking up over 13 minutes of playing time per game.

The Hoyas aren’t giving away an easy looks on defense, especially inside the key. They average almost five blocks per game and have some sizable defenders on the perimeter. Georgetown is holding opponents to 38.3 percent shooting for 62.3 points per home game, and faces a Johnnies team that relies on turning the game into a track meet.

St. John’s won’t find that pace in the Verizon Center. St. John’s may have won three straight games – averaging almost 83 points in that span – but those wins came against some bottom-tier Big East foes.

The Hoyas’ size and depth and the Red Storm’s smaller, shorter rotation are why I’m playing on Georgetown as my 10*Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Virginia Cavaliers as my 10* Main Event Monday.

The Cavaliers are trying to hold on to their spot atop the ACC and had a scare in their last outing versus Wake Forest. Virginia escaped with a one-point victory over the Demon Deacons Saturday, which should serve as a wake-up call for Tony Bennett’s kids heading into this matchup the with the Pittsburgh Panthers Monday.

The Cavaliers defense was coming off two very impressive performances, holding both NC State and Louisville to 47 points, before the near loss to Wake Forest. Virginia is still the top ranked defense in the country, allowing only 50.9 points per game, however it watched Wake Forest knocked down 10 of 24 looks from beyond the arc this past weekend.

Pitt depends on its offense to put distance between opponents. The Panthers are coming off an 89-point effort in a win over North Carolina and are averaging 75.2 points per game in their last five outings. The Panthers have enjoyed four wins in those five games with that lone blemish coming at Louisville. Pitt is just 1-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away from home, watching its offensive production dip to 64.1 points per game in those situations.

The Cavaliers looking to return to form on defense and the Panthers’ road woes are why I’m playing on Virginia as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Quinnipiac Bobcats as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

Quinnipiac plays host to the MAAC-leading Iona Gaels, who find themselves in a tough stretch of schedule Sunday. The Gaels are playing their third straight road game which so happens to be their third game in five days. We’re getting great value with the Bobcats program riding a three-game winning streak into this massive home stand.

Quinnipiac played Iona tough in their first meeting, losing 81-73 and covering as a 9.5-point road underdog in New Rochelle, and have revenge on their minds heading into the weekend. The Bobcats are playing much stiffer on defense since that first encounter, giving up just 60 points per game over that three-game win streak and locking opponents to just 37 percent shooting.

The Gaels lean on their high-octane offense to overwhelm opponents. However, with this being their third game in five days – and all of those contests coming in enemy territory – Iona may not have the same pop on offense. The Gaels scored 72 and 70 points in the first two road games, well below their season scoring average of 81.9 points per game.

The Bobcats riding momentum into this revenge spot at home and the Gaels running on fumes during this tough road stretch are why I’m playing on Quinnipiac as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Mississippi Rebels as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

Ole Miss could be the hottest team in the country, reeling off six straight wins including a thrilling victory over the Florida Gators in Gainesville Thursday. The Rebels are outscoring opponents by 7.5 points in that span, and have covered the spread in all but one of those contests.

Ole Miss would usually fit the mold of a letdown team following that win in Florida, however, the SEC won’t let the Rebels take it easy, welcoming a ranked Arkansas team to Oxford Saturday night. Mississippi continues to hold solid betting value and we’re expecting another strong performance from Andy Kennedy’s kids.

The Rebels play a tough physical game and like to push the tempo, leaning on a deep rotation to keep the offense from suffering a letdown. Not one player logs more than 29 minutes a game and Ole Miss boasts 10 players enjoying at least 10 minutes of court time. Mississippi has one of the most explosive backcourts in the country, with Stefan Moody, Jarvis Summers, and LaDarius White combining for more than 40 points per game.

Arkansas has earned its national ranking, winning three in a row and six of its last seven outings. The Razorbacks can also put the points on the board, topping the SEC with an average of 80.2 points per game. However, the Hogs have been exposed on defense against stronger scoring teams, like Ole Miss. The Rebels knocked off Arkansas 96-82 in Fayetteville back in January, shooting better than 56 percent from the field.

The Rebels’ momentum and deep scoring attack as well as the Razorbacks’ defensive weakness are why I’m playing on Mississippi as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I am playing on VALPARAISO. There is a reason Valpo is tops in the Horizon League and it is the Crusaders’ amazing depth.

Three players average double figures per game and five more average at least five points per game, while all eight of those players average at least 2.2 rebounds. Valpo just keeps coming at you for 40 minutes until you can’t keep up any more – especially when it’s a low spread like the one we’re seeing Friday night.

The Crusaders are 5-1 against the spread this season when the number is set at 4.5 or lower in their games, whether as a dog or a favorite. They are coming off an impressive performance against Oakland where six players finished in double figures, though they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.

Big spreads have really been the biggest problem for Valpo. The team has won nine of its last 10 games but only covered six of those spreads because numbers started getting more inflated the more the wins kept coming. I think we’ll see a cover here Friday night with a spread that opened at a small number that’s a little more comfortable.

The Crusaders can also play some D where they rank 51st nationally in scoring defense and 19th in field goal percentage defense. They’re also 11-1 straight up on home court and 6-2 against the spread against winning teams and I have a feeling they’ll put on a big performance for this nationally televised game on ESPN2. 10* Main Event

I am playing on UCONN. The Huskies have won four straight home games and if you're wondering why they managed to cover only one of those contests, it's simply because oddsmakers slapped them with too much chalk.

UConn failed to cover loaded spreads of 14, 14 and 16.5 in their three most recent home wins and I like the fact they have a small number to contend with Thursday night. While it's true they are playing one of the two best teams in the conference, UConn's overall numbers matchup almost identically when it comes to shooting and defending shots, but the Huskies hold a clear edge at home.

UConn turns into a bit of a defensive powerhouse in Hartford, where the Huskies are holding opponents to just 56.4 points per game and 37.3 percent field goal shooting. The Huskies didn't allow more than 60 points in any of those four recent home wins and they've allowed just 53 and 52 points in their last two games, both wins.

I think we'll see a much different Huskies team Thursday than what we saw against Tulsa in the first meeting of the season in January when the Hurrican won 66-58 as 1-point dogs.

UConn guard Ryan Boatright said "we played a horrible game" this week in reference to Tulsa and I think this team is motivated for revenge. It will help that Boatright, the Huskies' leading scorer, is scorching hot right now and is averaging 23.3 points over his last six games. 10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. The Aztecs are coming off their worst loss in three seasons and 107 games ago after getting pummeled by 15 points at Boise State on Sunday.

Some would say that's a reason to fade the Aztecs but seeing as how San Diego State is back at home and playing the team with whom they are tied atop the Mountain West Conference, I think that loss will be a huge motivator and a key factor in helping them cover on Wednesday.

The Aztecs were simply flat and couldn't find their shot against Boise State - maybe because they were peeking ahead to Wednesday's game. Now I believe they'll be much more honed in and will show off their stifling defense, which ranks third in the country in points against per game (53.8).

San Diego State also ranks 15th in the country in field-goal percentage defense and the scary part for opponents is that the Aztecs get even more suffocating at home. The under has cashed in all seven San Diego State home games that featured a posted total and it’s no wonder. The Aztecs allow just 46.5 points at home while holding opponents to 35.2 percent shooting on 2-pointers and 25.1 percent shooting on 3-pointers. Wow.

It won't help Wyoming's cause that its top scorer, forward Larry Nance Jr., was diagnosed with mono a few days ago. He's listed as day-to-day and even if he does play, who knows how much energy he'll have. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on SETON HALL. I really like Seton Hall here for a number of reasons Tuesday night, not least of which is the Pirates have home court edge at the Prudential Center for this nationally televised battle on FOX Sports 1.

The Hall is 8-3 against the spread on home court this season while a recently stumbling Hoyas squad is 4-5-1 away from home court this season.

Georgetown is coming off two losses and dropped spreads and an absolutely horrendous 18-of-60 shooting performance in a loss to Nova where the Hoyas couldn't cover even with 9.5 points to work with.

Even though the Pirates have lost two in a row themselves, this is not the team GU wants to see right now. Seton Hall took both meetings last year and I think the Pirates will make the necessary adjustments to pull themselves out of their recent funk.

The Hall got caught up in playing a half court offensive game in its last two matchups and I believe we'll see the Pirates push the pace more against a Georgetown team that would love nothing more than to slow the game down.

Three-pointers will also be key in this matchup where the spread is almost inconsequential and the Pirates clearly have they edge there. They rank first in the nation at defending the 3-pointer (25.5 percent) and it gets even better at home where they hold foes to just 20 percent 3-point shooting.

The Hoyas went a disgraceful 1-of-17 from beyond the arc against Villanova and Seton Hall owned them from downtown in last year's meetings by draining a combined 19-of-37 long balls.

I think the adjustment to pace and the 3-point advantage are the keys for Seton Hall here and I feel bettors can take advantage of this miniscule spread as a result. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. You could say the Seminoles are the conference Achilles Heel of Duke, with the Noles winning and covering three of the last six matchups. They have also beaten a nationally ranked Duke team six times under head coach Leonard Hamilton.

So no matter where these teams sit in the conference standings, I would definitely lean toward an FSU squad at home with an opening line of double digits to work with.

As luck would have it, Florida State also happens to be playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Seminoles have won three of their last four games and they've covered the spread in five of their last six games.

The Seminoles are shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 37 percent from long range over their past four games and are playing some stout defense to go with it. The Seminoles averaged 6.3 blocks and 4.3 steals per game in those four outings and they are the only team in the ACC averaging more than five blocks per game in conference play. They are also coming off tying their season high of nine blocks against Virginia Tech in their last game, a 73-65 win and cover as 1-point faves.

I think Florida State will be able to slow the pace and grind Duke into a defensive battle on home court, which makes this spread look like way too many points for me. The Blue Devils also don't really like the quick turnaround after the weekend and are 3-12-1 against the spread in their last 16 Monday games. 10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. In a disappointing season for the Dons, this will absolutely be the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and I'm taking them with double digits in points to work with.

This game will be a 'Gold Out' at War Memorial Gymnasium and will be featured on ESPN2, which will also be one of the last games on the board for sports bettors (11:30 p.m. ET).

I feel the Dons are being given too many points to work with simply because they've lost four in a row. But those losses have all be closely contested matchups, decided by an average of 6.25 points per game.

When you line up the statistics, we also don't see the kind of huge discrepancy between these teams that their records suggest. Gonzaga is only scoring about four more points on the road than San Francisco is at home and the Dons are actually allowing two fewer points at home than the Zags allow on the road.

Gonzaga also had its second-worst shooting performance of the season in the first meeting against San Francisco (38.8 percent) and when you put it all together, I just think oddsmakers are being too generous here.

The public is going to look to continue to pile on the Zags but I think there's a great opportunity here to take the underdog. If it were in any other gym, maybe not, but lucky for us this game isn't in any other gym. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on TULSA. Everywhere you look, Tulsa is on a streak of some kind right now so don't be fooled by the fact SMU is ranked in the top 25 and Tulsa isn't.

The Golden Hurricane have won 12 straight games and 21 straight conference games going back to last season and they helped bettors to the window to the tune of a 7-4-1 against the spread record during the most recent streak (one game didn't have a line).

With a spread that's basically a coin flip on Saturday, my money is on the Golden Hurricane once again here.

The current hot streak has Tulsa sitting atop the AAC at 10-0 and they're using defense mostly to do it. The Hurricane rank third in the conference in scoring D (56.9 points against per game) and they're holding opponents to just 38.8 percent on field goals.

They are also coming off a 13-point win over Houston in which Tulsa came out in the second half and absolutely suffocated UH, allowing only 10 points in the second half in one of the finest defensive halves of the college hoops season by any team.

During the streak, Tulsa is outscoring opponents by an average of 11 points, so in my mind this spread is way too low. I also like the fact the Hurricane's top two scorers, James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison, should be closer to 100 percent.

The two players each average over 15 points per game and Woodard was suffering from the flu last game while Harrison had a slightly banged up ankle. 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the California Golden Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

The Golden Bears host the Southern California Trojans in a battle of two Pac-12 rivals headed in different directions. Cal is making a February push with back-to-back wins while USC enters this contest on a six-game slide.

The Golden Bears have bounced back from a six-game skid of their own with victories over Washington and Washington State on the road. Cal is back in Haas Pavilion Thursday, looking to build on those impressive showings. The Golden Bears scored 76 and 90 points in those victories – a massive jump in production from their 55-point average over those six straight losses.

Cal also has some payback in mind for the Trojans, who beat the Golden Bears last month. Southern Cal upended the Golden Bears 71-57 in Los Angeles, with Cal shooting just over 35 percent from the field and going 4 for 20 from beyond the arc. The Bears’ talented backcourt will put that poor performance behind them in front of the Cal faithful Thursday.

The Golden Bears don’t give away much, turning the ball over just 11.4 times per game and limiting foes to just 7.0 offensive rebounds per game. Southern Cal, which averages only 62.4 points per road game, will have to work for each one of its points and won’t get anything free against this revengeful Cal defense.

The Golden Bears’ momentum and the Trojans' conference free-fall are why I’m playing on California as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday.

I’m playing on the Connecticut Huskies as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

The defending national champs need an easy layup to snap their two-game skid before heading back out on the road again, and the Huskies find that should-be gimmie in the East Carolina Pirates. Connecticut dropped road games at Houston and Cincinnati, and have been dismal away from Storrs during AAC play.

At home is a different story for the Huskies. UConn allows just 56.9 points per game as a host, compared to 64.6 points per game on the road. It also forces 12.6 turnovers and allows only 6.8 offensive rebounds in those home stands – little things that make the difference when it comes to the scoreboard. The Huskies are desperate for a victory so you can expect that defense to be drum tight Wednesday night.

The Pirates sit near the bottom of the AAC but did snap a three-game skid with a home win over Cincinnati. The Pirates were 10.5-point underdogs in that victory against the Bearcats so there could be a letdown situation for ECU in this road game.

East Carolina is managing only 57.1 points per road trip on 35.9 percent shooting and are just 1-8 ATS in its last nine away tilts. The Pirates are very dependent on the 3-pointer, getting 33.6 percent of their offense from beyond the arc, but fire at just 32.2 percent from distance on the road.

The Huskies hungry for a much-needed victory and the Pirates’ woes on the road are why I’m playing on UConn as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Volunteers as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

The Volunteers are at home, tackling the Mississippi State Bulldogs Tuesday night. Tennessee is slowly climbing the SEC standings with wins in four of its last six outings, posting a 4-2 ATS mark in that span. The Vols have owned the Bulldogs in Knoxville, winning four straight and going 44-10 at home all-time to Mississippi State. They’ve covered in four of their last five meetings with MSU heading into Tuesday.

Tennessee rolled the Bulldogs in their first meeting of the season, winning 61-47 as a 2-point road favorite. The Volunteers locked down Miss State to just 30.6 percent shooting in that game, including a 1-for-9 mark from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs were also dominated on the boards, getting out-rebounded 36-24 with 13 of those Tennessee boards coming on the offensive end.

But despite that one-sided win, The Vols aren’t taking MSU lightly in the rematch. Head coach Donnie Tyndall told reporters he’s seen growth in the Bulldogs offense over the past two weeks, with MSU averaging 69.5 points per game since that loss to UT. The Vols know they have to step it up on defense, even though they're playing solid basketball on that end of the floor.

Tennessee is holding opponents to just 40.8 percent shooting inside Thompson-Boling Arena, and have forced more than 15 turnovers per game as a host. The Bulldogs aren’t the best rebounding team either, giving up 15 offensive boards in their last outing with LSU. The Vols crash the glass hard, averaging more than 10 offensive rebounds a night – 14 in the win over Auburn.

The Volunteers' success at home against the Bulldogs and their stingy defense is why I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday.

I’m playing on the Kansas Jayhawks as my 10* Main Event Monday.

The Jayhawks have a massive Big 12 battle with the Iowa State Cyclones Monday. Kansas nearly got caught looking ahead to ISU in its weekend tilt with Kansas State, jumping out to a big lead early then letting up in the second half.

The Jayhawks can stake their claim as the team to beat in the conference with a win over the Cyclones at home, where they’ve gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas is tightening up on defense, limiting its last three opponents to an average of 60 points on 34.4 percent shooting.

You can be sure the Jayhawks aren’t taking Iowa State lightly after suffering back-to-back losses to the Cyclones, including an 86-80 loss in Ames in January. This is a big revenge spot for KU, which looks to take advantage of one of the top home-court edges in the country.

Iowa State is a power house at home but its numbers dip when on the road. The Cyclones are just 1-2 away from home in conference play and suffered an embarrassing loss at Texas Tech in its last road outing. Kansas has a toughness inside that should pester ISU big man Georges Niang. The Jayhawks have blocked a total of 19 shots in the last two games and have swatted an average of 7.7 in their last three outings.

The Jayhawks out for revenge on their home court and the Cyclones' issues on the road are why I’m playing on Kansas as my 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

The Bruins are coming off a massive home win Thursday, exacting some revenge on the Utah Utes for a bad loss in Salt Lake City earlier this season. UCLA now has some payback in store for the Colorado Buffaloes, who trumped the Bruins 62-56 in Boulder on Jan. 2.

The Bruins were a dismal 31 percent from the field in that loss and hit just 6 of 26 3-point attempts while coughing up the basketball 13 times. UCLA is one of the most two-faced programs in the country when it comes to home/away play, and is a completely different beast in Pauley Pavilion as it proved in the win against the Utes.

UCLA, which scores a measly 60 points on the road, is putting up an average of 82.5 points at home, knocking down 47.2 percent of its looks – compared to an icy 36.5 percent on the road. The Bruins matched that output with a 46.2 percent shooting night against Utah and only turned the ball over six times.

The Bruins have five players scoring in double digits and present a tough challenge for the Buffaloes, who allow 10 more points per road game as they do at home. Colorado has struggled as the visitor and is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road contests.

Add to that the absence of 6-foot-10 junior Josh Scott, who scores almost 14 points and grabs seven rebounds a game. Scott, who is out with back spasms, leaves a big hole under the rim against a tall and athletic UCLA team that attacks the offensive glass for 11.6 offensive boards per game.

The Bruins' play in Pauley and the Buffaloes' troubles away from Boulder is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Month.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys welcome rivals the Oklahoma Sooners to Stillwater for basketball’s version of Bedlam. The Pokes are playing with passion and revenge after a one-sided loss to OU in Norman, getting blown out 82-65.

Oklahoma State is a much tougher team inside Gallagher-Iba Arena, where it’s gone 61-29-4 ATS in its previous 94 games – an ATS winning clip of 67 percent. The Cowboys are short favorites and present some terrific spread value in this classic revenge/rivalry spot.

Oklahoma State shot just 37 percent from the field at Oklahoma earlier this month, including going 7 for 26 from beyond the 3-point arc and turning the ball over 16 times. Things couldn’t get much worse for OSU in that loss. The Cowboys hit at a 46 percent clip at home and average 71.5 points as hosts – compared to just 63.4 points per road tilt.

The Sooners aren’t the same team away from Norman. Oklahoma smashed hapless Texas Tech at home in its last outing but dropped back-to-back road games before that, losing at Baylor and Kansas. In fact, OU has covered only once in its last five road stops – averaging 67.8 points away from home, which is more than a 10-point decrease than its season scoring average inside the Lloyd Noble Center.

The Cowboys out for revenge and their strong home-court edge over a road weary Sooner squad is why I’m playing on Oklahoma State as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Month

I’m playing on the Buffalo Bulls as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday.

The Bulls put a perfect home record on the line against the MAC East-leading Kent State Golden Flashes Friday night. Buffalo is 7-0 inside Alumni Arena (4-3 ATS) and will be playing in front of a packed house, with the fans going with the “Black Out” theme for this nationally televised MAC matchup.

The Bulls average 80.7 points on 45.4 percent shooting per game at home and are getting tremendous line value from oddsmakers sizing up the Flashes’ current winning streak. Kent State has compiled six straight victories heading into this road game, however, all but two of those came in Ohio and this is just its third conference road game. The Bulls are one of the best home bets in the MAC and have covered the spread in 13 of their previous 18 home stands.

Buffalo will overwhelm the Golden Flashes with their high-scoring attack. Kent State is only putting up 65.7 points per game, with that number dipping to 63.4 ppg on the road. It has done well defensively against conference foes, but has cracked when on the road against superior offensive programs. The Golden Flashes were gashed for 78 points in both road losses to Kansas and UTEP, and could find themselves playing from behind in front of a rabid home crowd in Buffalo Friday.

The Bulls’ home-court advantage and the Golden Flashes’ lack of road toughness is why I’m playing on Buffalo as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday