Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on UNLV. The Rebels are chomping at the bit to get a piece of the Lobos. The Rebels closed 2021 on a roll. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their final four games of the year; all four victories came by double-digits. They rang in 2022 with a close loss to a stingy San Diego State team. Then, they had their game against Air Force postponed. So, this is a team anxious to return to play and to get back to the way it was playing "last year." New Mexico should be the perfect opponent to get this year's first victory against. The Rebels won two 2021 meetings with the Lobos by 30 combined points. Unlike the Aztecs, who held UNLV to 55 points. The Lobos are not a good defensive team. That's particularly true when they're on the road. In five games, away from New Mexico, they're allowing an average of 83.8 points. Opposing teams are connecting on 47% of their field goals, in those games. On the other hand, the Rebels are allowing just 62.5 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 37.5% of their field goals. New Mexico lost players Muscadin (left team) and Manuel (suspension) in November and December. Both were expected to be a big part of this season's plans. Prior to the game vs. SDSU, the Rebels had scored 80 or more in three straight. Expect the offense to regain its form and for the Lobos to ultimately be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on NDSU. The Bison have dominated the Pioneers for years. NDSU has won six straight meetings winning by an average of 12 points. These teams are at opposite ends of the Summit Conference again this season. The Bison returned all five starters. In fact, they got back eight of their top nine scorers from last season, including each of their top six. Not many teams can say that. Denver certainly can't. The same Bison players beat Denver by 26 the last time the teams faced each other. While the Pioneers are off a victory, they haven't been able to string them together. All five of their previous victories have been followed by a loss. They even lost to Ottawa. Last time they were off a win, the Pioneers lost their next game by 17 points. The Bison have advantages all over the floor. They're stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They're 4-1 ATS their past five as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. The Badgers have played well. As per usual, they're solid. Top scorer Johnny Davis is going to be a handful. That said, when the smoke clears, I expect the Badgers to stumble against what I believe to be an undervalued Maryland team. Note that Wisconsin is 8-16 ATS, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. The Terps are loaded themselves. Talented and experienced. Remember, they entered the season with a higher ranking than Wisconsin. Their first two games of 2022 have both been on the road, at tough venues. So, there was no shame in losing both. (They went 1-1 ATS.) They closed out 2021 with b2b double-digit wins here at home though. Backing home, seeking that first conference victory, they're going to be giving it everything they've got. Maryland (interim) coach Danny Manning noted: "We can't wait to get back in front of our fans. We need their energy, their enthusiasm and their love." Look for that energy to prove to the difference, the Terps bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I really like how this one sets up for the Red Wolves. Both teams played Thursday. The Red Wolves lost by six to a tough Louisiana team. The Warhawks won by eight against a relatively weak Arkansas Little Rock team. The Red Wolves narrowly missed the cover while the Warhawks covered by a bucket. Thursday's loss notwithstanding, the Red Wolves are a good team. Losses have been few and far between and they've responded to them with victories. Off their loss to Texas Tech, they bounced back and hammered Air Force by 22 points. They're 12-7-1 ATS their last 20, off a conference loss. They're also 15-5 ATS their last 20, excluding pushes, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. On the other hand, ULM is an ugly 4-17 SU the past 21 times it played with one or less day's rest. Arkansas State won both meetings last season and brought back all five starters from that team. The Red Wolves are the stronger, deeper team and will enjoy an advantage inside. Expect a victory. 

I'm playing on PENNSYLVANIA. Both teams have started Ivy League play with a victory. Playing at home, I expect the Quakers to be the team which moves to 2-0. While the Ivy League canceled last season, the Quakers are 9-4 SU (10-3 ATS) at home the past few seasons. During that span, the Big Red are just 4-17 on the road. The Quakers were favored by 11 points the last time that they hosted the Big Red. They won by 14. This year's team is arguably every bit as strong. Prior to the season, Penn coach Donahue noted: "We're more talented actually than we've ever been." While the Big Red are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off a conference win, the Quakers are 5-2 ATS when off a conference win. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday.

I'm playing on VERMONT. The Wildcats have been great at the betting window this season. They've got a solid team this year. However, tonight, they're up against the longtime class of the conference. Expect the Catamounts to remind them of that. New Hampshire was getting pretty excited a few years ago, too. The 2017 team won 20 games. Then, it ran into Vermont in the conf. tournament. Last year, Vermont finished tied for the conf. lead (5th straight year it was first) but lost to Hartford in the conf. tournament. This year's team brought back all five starters and enters America East play with a chip on its shoulder. Both teams have been out of action for quite a while. Vermont last played on 12/22. New Hampshire hasn't played since way back on 12/13 though. That's a long time to be out of action. Last season's first meeting was at NH. Laying -13, the Catamounts won by exactly 13. The game here at Vermont saw the Catamounts favored by 15. They won by 23. Including that result, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS the past five in the series. Expect the Catamounts to make a statement with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. The Panthers haven't fared too well as favorites this season. That changed last game though. Laying -11 points against Evansville, for their first game of 2022, the Panthers won by 22. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. This team is loaded, having brought back all five starters from last season. UNI has won four of the past five meetings with the Beacons, formerly known as the Crusaders. All four wins came by double-digits. While the Beacons managed 81 points last time out, they'll scoring far more difficult against the stingy Panthers. UNI is allowing an average of only 61.3 ppg at home. With Valparaiso just 5-11 ATS (4-12 SU) the past 16 times it scored 80 or more in its previous game, expect another double-digit win for the Panthers.

I'm playing on AF/CSU OVER the total. Both teams have seen their "recent" games stay 'under' the total. For the Falcons, those games did indeed come recently. For the Rams, they've been out of action for quite a few weeks, due to a Covid shutdown. Either way, those results have helped to provide us with a relatively low O/U number for tonight's game. I believe it'll prove to be too low. While the Falcons do indeed have trouble scoring, the Rams do not. They average 83.4 ppg. At home, that number climbs to a whopping 89.3 ppg. While they allow only 67.5, that still adds up to 156.8 ppg. Over the past 2+ seasons, the OVER is 18-12 in CSU's home lined games. Happy to be back in action, the Rams should put up another fairly big number and I look for those stats to improve Tuesday night. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. This is a lot of points. Too many, in my opinion. Iowa is off three straight big wins. The last two of those were against weak opposition though. Prior to that, the Hawkeyes had dropped three straight. With the exception of Utah State, the Hawkeyes haven't beaten  a decent team by more than a single point. They beat Virginia by one. However, they lost against Purdue, Iowa St and Illinois. The rest of the schedule, besides that Utah State game, has been easy. So, the 10-3 record is a bit deceiving. Maryland started slowly but has won three straight of its own. That includes a victory over Florida. While the Terps have four losses, none of them came by more than eight points. Note that they're 2-0 ATS (and SU) the past two times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Terps haven't forgotten that that Iowa pounded them last year. The Hawkeyes arguably lost more from last year than Maryland did. Don't be surprised when the Terps return the favor. 

I'm playing on Ohio State / Nebraska UNDER the total. The Buckeyes were involved in a high-scoring football game yesterday. I expect the opposite to be true of this evening's basketball game. When the Buckeyes visited here last season, the O/U line was in the mid-140s. Yet, the teams combined for only 129 points. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the Buckeyes played here. Scores were 129, 130, 133, 127, 130, 119 and 124. The Huskers haven't played since 12/22. The last time that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games, they managed only 58 points. Including that 68-57 loss, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. The Buckeyes have been off for even longer; they last played way back on 12/11. That could easily lead to some rust. Look for the UNDER to improve to 15-5 the past 20 times that the Buckeyes played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. 

I'm playing on NKU. The Norse dominate this series. They've beaten the Panthers 10 straight times. The average margin of victory was 11 points. The Norse are 4-0 ATS in the last four of those meetings, too. Each victory came by a minimum of nine points. Despite both of last season's meetings being played at Milwaukee, the Norse still won both games by 14 points. The Norse, a rare healthy team, brought back four starters from that team, too. Milwaukee only returned two starters. The Panthers might have had a puncher's chance if Patrick Baldwin Jr. was available. However, he's out with Covid. Browning and Kane are also out for the Panthers, which hurts their depth. The Panthers gave up 80 points last time out. That's b2b games, against Div 1 opponents, that they've allowed 80 or more. Note that they're 4-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more in their previous game. I say the Norse ring in the new year with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Fairleigh Dickinson/St. Francis UNDER the total. These teams played a pair of high-scoring games against each other, on b2b days, last January. The O/U lines were only marginally higher than this afternoon's O/U line is. However, things are much different this season. Fairleigh Dickinson lost a lot and is no longer going to be able to compete. The Knights have scored 55, 54 and 59 points, their past three games.  That's a lot different than last year. Prior to last season's first meeting, the Knights had scored 69 or more in five of their previous six. St. Francis isn't exactly lighting it up, at the moment, either. The Red Flash have scored 64, 67 and 48 their past three games. That's a lot different than last year. The Red Flash entered last season's first meeting having scored 70 or more in four straight. The UNDER is 7-2 the past nine times that St. Francis had failed to cover its previous three games. With the UNDER also 7-3 the past 10 times that FD played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on UTAH VALLEY STATE. These are two solid teams. Both played well in non-conference action. Both will be anxious to get WAC play started with a win. Playing at home, I expect the Wolverines to be the team which gets it done. This is the first conference game as a member of the WAC for the Wildcats. The last thing that the Wolverines want to do is to let a first-year team, led by a first-year coach, come in and beat them in their home (conference) opener. Remember, the Wolverines won at Washington last time out. Earlier, they beat BYU. One "big" advantage that the Wolverines have is Fardaws Aimaq. The 6-11, 240-pound center averages a double-double (19.4 points and 13.7 rebounds) and is one of the top big men in the country. He had a 15/15 line last game, 20/16 the game before that. The Wildcats would have been better equipped to deal with Aimaq last year, when they had 7-foot Kohl (and 6-foot-8 Pleasant) in their lineup. They don't though and will have no answer for the Utah Valley big man. Look for the Wolverines, 3-1 ATS their last four as home favorites of three or fewer points, to give the Wildats a rude welcome to WAC play. 

I'm playing on VMI/Wofford OVER the total. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 164 points. While that game did go to OT, they still had 148 in regulation. Last season's first meeting saw 151 points scored. That's three straight between these teams which have exceeded the 150 mark. The Keydets are scoring big points again this season; they play at a very fast pace and they love to fire from beyond the arc. In fact, they rank third in the nation in three-pointers per game averaging 12.7. They've also hit 10 or more three-pointers in ten games already this season. Its noteworthy that the 'under' is 3-0 when VMI was listed as the favorte. However, the 'over' is 5-1 when the Keydets have been underdogs, as they are here. Currently, as of this writing, Wofford is favored by 11.5 points. Therefore, its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 21-5 the past 26 times that the Terriers were listed as home favorites in the 9.5 to 12 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish haven't been covering too regularly. That's helped keep this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While they didn't cover, the Irish still won by 10 last time out. That's b2b wins and three of four. That includes a victory over Kentucky. With Duke on deck, they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. The Panthers lost last year's top player, Champagnie did a lot for them. Then, early this season, Horton (their top returning scorer) was arrested for aggravated assault. He's been suspended indefinitely Those were big losses. The Panthers didn't feel them so much in non-conf action but they will now that ACC play is here. The Irish won by 26 here last season. The combination of Champagnie and Horton had 27 of the Panthers' 58 points. To put that another way, the entire Pitt. lineup, minus those two players, scored only 31 points in last year's game. ND had 84. The Irish won't win by as many this year but they'll win by "enough." Look for them to improve to 18-9 ATS their past 27, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 120s.

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. While the Cavs may not be what they were a few years ago, this line could still be higher. Virginia "got healthy" last time out and will carry the momentum into this evening's game. Laying 25 points, Virginia won by 33. The Cavs allowed a mere 49 points. They've now allowed 56 or fewer points in three straight games and seven of their past eight; the type of dominant defense we've come to expect from them. The Tigers don't fare too well when playing a road game which is expected to be low-scoring. They're 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven road games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. The Cavs won by 35 the last time these teams met. They won by seven the last time the teams played here. They're 16-2 SU and 11-6-1 ATS the last 18 meetings here. Expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Musketeers have gotten off to a great start. Tonight, however, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Keep in mind that Villanova has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Wildcats have taken on the likes of Purdue, UCLA and Baylor, three of the top five teams in the country. Other opponents have included Tennessee and Syracuse. Xavier has beaten some solid teams, like Ohio State, V-Tech and Oklahoma State. However, those teams aren't in the elite class of the ones that Villanova has been contending with. The Wildcats are already "battle-tested" against the best and that should serve them well tonight and going forward in Big East play. While the Wildcats may have lost b2b games, they're still one of the strongest and best coached teams in the country. Xavier coach Steele knows what's coming. He commented:  "... we know we're gonna get their best shot. They're coming off a loss against Creighton and a loss to Baylor before that. I know this, coach Jay Wright's gonna have them playing at a very, very high level on Tuesday night." Indeed. The Cats have dominated Xavier here and that will continue.

I'm playing on GEORGIA. These teams last met two years ago. The Bulldogs were favored by 16 points. They won by 21. While the Bulldogs are laying a smaller number this evening, I'm expecting another blowout. Off a loss to George Mason, the Bulldogs are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. That was their first game without Jailyn Ingram and the Bulldogs missed him. However, as coach Crean noted: "Now we have a game under our belt without him. There's no question that it was different. But that's what we have now. Guys have to understand that this is our team." Crean went on to comment: "The problem for us, at times, was that we didn't follow the game plan defensively. And that just can't happen. We've got to be more physical. We've got to be more tuned into what we do, awareness-wise." I expect the Bulldogs to listen to their coach and for them to be far more physical and intense on defense. As of this writing, the O/U line is 145.5. That projected pace figures to favor the Bulldogs. They're 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11 home games, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During that span, the Catamounts were 4-6 ATS (1-9 SU) in 10 road games with an O/U line in that range. Going back further finds them at a dismal 13-34-1 ATS (5-43 SU) in 48 road games with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. The Catamounts haven't played for awhile and may have some early rust. Look for the Bulldogs to jump all over them and keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Admittedly, Colorado has been a little inconsistent. That said, if the Buffaloes play up to their potential, this is a mismatch. I believe that they will. With Kansas on deck, followed by Pac 12 play, the Buffaloes need to put it all together. CSU Bakersfield is the perfect opponent to do that against. The Roadrunners are off a double-digit loss against Abilene Christian. They're averaging only 56.7 ppg on the road (39.4% field goals) and are going to have trouble scoring here. Note that they're 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13, when playing a road game with an O/U kine in the 120s. Meanwhile, during that span, the Buffaloes are 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) when listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -18 range. Colorado coach Tad Boyle had this to say: "I would sure like to put 40 minutes together, and we haven't even come close this year. We haven't even scratched the surface ... " Expect the Buffs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a blowout victory. 

I'm playing on TARLETON STATE. These teams just met, at South Alabama. The game was close. The Texans had a lead at halftime. However, playing at home, the Jags won the second half, picking up the victory while covering by half a point. With this evening's rematch being played at Tarleton, I expect the revenge-minded Texans to get some payback. The Texans have taken on the best teams in the country. Literally. Their opponents have included Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan as well as "lesser" teams like Stanford and Wichita State. The Jags also faced the Shockers (both teams lost by 14) but didn't go up against any of the others that I mentioned. Anyway, I expect that extremely difficult schedule to start serving the Texans well. They're 3-1 SU at home and the lone loss came by two points, as a 16.5 point underdog. They know they can compete with this team and I expect the Texans to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on IUPUI/Chicago State OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. For both teams, its the lowest they've seen all season. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Jaguars lost a lot from last year and having trouble scoring. That's reflected in the low O/U line. They've largely been underdogs though. Here, they're stepping down in class. They're favored against a team with a porous defense. Note that the Jags have seen the OVER go 19-8 the past few seasons, when facing a team with a losing record. The Cougars have a new coach and five new starters from last year. That's particularly shown up on the defensive end of the floor. Chicago State is allowing an average of 80 ppg on the road. In those five games, host teams have hit 48.7% of their field goals. Overall, they've allowed 70 or more points in six of their past seven. Meanwhile, IUPI has allowed 69, 70 and 78 its past three games. Both teams are going to view this as a chance at a rare win and both will be trying to score the entire way. Look for the OVER to improve to 4-1 in the Cougars' five December games. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. The Zips are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Raiders have been the best team in the Horizon the past few years. When all is said and done, the Raiders will be at or near the top, again. The Raiders are well-rested, having last played on 12/4. The last (and only) time that they played with seven or more day's rest this season, they won by 13, as a four-point favorite. The Zips are no slouches. They'll have a tough defense and should have a solid season. However, it's going to be difficult for them to keep up with Wright State in this one. The Raiders, who scored 86 points in their lone home game, are going to want to get out and run. Akron is averaging 55.7 ppg on the road. Playing at home will help Wright State dictate a faster tempo than Akron wants to play at. Behind a big game from Grant Basile, look for the Raiders to come through with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Braves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Alcorn State has played an absolutely grueling road schedule thus far. To their credit, the Braves have been relatively competitive. Still, it's starting to catch up with them. They've had some close losses but they've also had four double-digit losses. A 22-point loss at Houston in their last game was excusable, as the Cougars are tough. However, in their previous game, the Braves lost by 21 at Tulane. The Shockers are a lot stronger than the Green Wave. Like their guests, the Shockers have played some tough opponents. They've also had a few close losses. However, they also have wins over the likes of UNLV, Missouri and OK. State. They beat Norfolk State by "only" 13 last time out, narrowly missing the cover. The Spartans won their league title and went to the NCAA Tournament last year though; they're stronger than Alcorn State. The Braves' blowout loss at Tulane came after they'd had a break in between games. That's the case again here. It's going to be hard for them to go back on the road and "get up" for another blowout loss. I say the Shockers keep their foot on the gas the whole way and run their road-weary guests right out of the building. 

I'm playing on NDSU. I played on the Bison in their last game. I noted the following: "The Matadors are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams faced each other in 2019, at Northridge. The Bison won by nine. Playing on their homecourt, angry off a loss, I expect a bigger margin of victory tonight. This is a veteran NDSU team; some of the players are still starting that were in the 2019 win. Guys like Eady and Kreuser, a first-team All Summit choice last year. In fact, the Bison returned all five starters from last year's team. They won 114-51 last time on this floor. They're catching CSUN, which has a first year coach, off losses of 18 and 26 points. While NDSU should finish near the top of the Summit conference, CSUN should finish near the bottom of the Big West. Expect a double-digit victory." While Indiana State represents a tougher challenge, I like what I saw from the Bison and I expect them to build momentum from their victory. The Sycamores have a first year coach. Last month, they saw Tyreke Key go down to injury. He was their leading scorer from the previous year and had been considering turning pro. Note that Key led all scorers with 27 points when these teams met in 2019. His injury was devastating to this team and his absence will be noticed in this one. The Sycamores are 10-17 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. The Bison are 24-4 SU at home, 7-5 ATS as home favorites of three or less. They'll improve on those stats. 

I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY. The Stags have gotten off to a strong start. The Tribe has not. However, those results have provided us with an extra generous line for this afternoon's game. Consider that Fairfield was only a 1-point favorite, despite playing at home, the last time (2019) that these teams met. That was a close game, W&M eventually winning by four. With the Tribe off a 1-point game, I'm expecting another close one this afternoon. The Stags, 12-19 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, are just 6-9 ATS their last 15 as favorites. Note that all five of their road games have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Look for the Tribe to bring their best effort, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Musketeers have been playing well. After missing out for a few years, they should get back to the NCAA Tournament this season. I expect them to have their hands full with their crosstown rivals though. The Bearcats have lost two games. However, both losses came by six or less. They've since responded to those losses with a close win and then a bigger win. They're coming in confident and excited to play in this game. The Bearcats are off a down year and they lost by eight to Xavier. They're much stronger this season though and their new coach has them buying into what needs to be done, particularly on the defensive end. The Bearcats allow just 58.1 ppg. They hold opposing teams to a 35.3% field goal percentage. That's the fifth best in the entire country. The Musketeers are just 14-27-1 ATS their last 42, when laying points. The last two meetings were both decided by eight or less and Cincy won by 15, the year before that. Look for this one to come down to the wire, the Bearcats with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on Vermont/Brown OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Bears' offense has gotten on track. They've scored at least 72 points in four straight games, the last three of which all finished above the total. Brown has only played three games with O/U lines in the 120s, the past 2+ seasons. All three of those games finished above the total. Going back further finds the OVER at 17-6 the past 23 times that Brown played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. On the season, the Bears are averaging 80 ppg at home. Vermont had trouble scoring against a fairly tough Providence team last game. However, the OVER is 7-2 the past 10 times that the Catamounts failed to score at least 60 points in their previous game. (One of those 10 games didn't have an O/U line but Vermont scored 81.) This has the makings of a close game; neither team is going to "stop trying" or go into "slow mode" to close the game. Look for the final combined score to prove higher than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. The Hawks should fare well in their conference. They're not going to be ready for the Red Storm though. The Storm switched up their lineup before last game and it resulted in a 14-point win over Fordham. To its credit, Monmouth has played well. However, the Hawks are starting to grow a little road weary and this is a strong St. John's team. Note that Monmouth is just 3-7 ATS its past 10, after playing its previous three games on the road. The Storm only has two losses. They came against Indiana (2-point loss) and Kansas. Neither game was when they were listed as the home team. Five of six wins came by nine or more. The Storm are averaging 85.2 ppg (2nd best in Big East) and connecting on better than 50% of their field goals. The Storm have scored 74 or more in every game. Ultimately, Monmouth, which is averaging less than 66 points over its past three games, won't be able to keep up. These teams haven't met since a 10-point win by the Storm eight years ago. Sticking with the same lineup that came through last game, expect another double-digit victory for St. John's. 

I'm playing on SE. MISSOURI STATE. These teams played a very close one, at Evansville, last season. Playing on their home floor, the Purple Aces ended up eking out an OT victory. (They won it by converting a 3-point play with 1-second remaining in OT.) With tonight's rematch being played on their home floor, I expect the Redhawks to return the favor. Note that the Purple Aces are an ugly 2-10 ATS their last 12, as road favorites. The Redhawks have many of the key players from last year's game. Eric Reed Jr. led the Redhawks with 16 point in last year's game. He's back and coming off a 33-point effort last time out. Last year's result should give the Redhawks confidence, as well as some added motivation for this one. Evansville is just 5-22 SU it last 27 road games. Expect the Redhawks to score the minor upset. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Dolphins are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Admittedly, the Bulldog had been struggling. However, they bounced back to beat Memphis in their last game. They were down at the break and rallied for the victory. That was what they needed and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win in this one. Note that Georgia beat this team by 33 points last December. This will be the Dolphins fourth time on the road in their last five games. They average a mere 55 points on the road. It doesn't help matters that guard Kevion Nolan has a banged-up knee. He's the team's best outside shooter and his status is day-to-day. However, regardless if he plays, it won't be enough. They may not win by 33 again but in the end, it'll be another double-digit win for the Bulldogs. 

I'm playing on COLGATE. This is a mismatch. The Raiders have quietly dominated the Patriot League over the past four years. They were 50-16 in league play, the past four seasons, 11-1 last year. They were second in the entire country last year, in terms of scoring. This year's team brought back four starters. On paper, it's arguably even stronger than last year. They've got talent, depth and experience. Poor Columbia. The last time that the Lions played on the road they lost by a score of 98-60. That was against an opponent (UMBC) which isn't as good as the one they'l face this evening. The score was 49-19 by halftime. While the Lions did bounce back from that beating. Their win came against the Maine Brown Bears. Also, note that they're just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12, after having covered the spread in their previous game. Overall, the Lions are 0-4 on the road. With Colgate 7-2 ATS its last nine home games, against teams which have won less than 40% of their road games, expect this one to result in a blowout. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. It's been a tough start to the season for the Bengals. However, a visit from the Lumberjacks will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bengals' sub-par early resuls have helped keep this line lower than it otherwise could have been. Idaho State beat this team in both last season's games. Both games were at Northern Arizona, too. The Bengals brought all their starters back from last year and they match up well with this team. The Bengals are 13-9 ATS their last 22, when off a conference loss. Knowing that their next game will be diffcult (road game at Cal) expect the Bengals to dig deep and play their best game of the season. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on VMI/Portland OVER the total. This game will be played at a fast pace and will be a shootout. VMI is averaging 80 points so far this season. Nothing new. The Keydets and their "up-tempo, permiter-oriented offense" were among the nation's highest-scoring teams last year. The Keydets lost their top scorer but returned four other important part of their offense. Portland averages 86 ppg at home. The Pilots' new coach (Legans) was known for pushing the pace as a coach at Eastern Washington. He'll be happy to welcome the fast-paced, defensively-challenged Keydets. Excluding pushes, in games which had an O/U line, the OVER is 14-5 the past 19 times that VMI allowed less than 60 points in its previous game. Look for a high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Keydets were road underdogs. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have gotten off to a tough start at the betting window. However, their games have been largely on the road. They're home now and this is the start of conference play, essentially a new season. The Bengals' non-conference ATS struggles have worked in our favor here, as the line is lower than it easily could have been. This is a very experienced Idaho State team, one which has been anxiously awaiting the start of Big Sky play. The Vikings are winless on the road, where they're averaging 57.5 ppg and hitting a mere 34.4% of their field goals. Granted, those two road games have come against tough opposition. Still, the Vikings have yet to show that they can shoot away from home. They're 8-19 SU on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Speaking of homecourt, the Vikings had the advantage of playing at home for both of last season's games against the Bengals. The teams split those games. Playing at home will help allow the Bengals the opportunity to dicate the tempo of the game. The Bengals believe that they can make some noise in the conference this season. Expect them to get things started with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Hokies, they've lost two in a row and I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Of course, one could say that most of the time, when they face good teams on the road. They're 1-10 ATS their last 11 road games, when facing a team with a winning home record. With a 4-1 home record, the Terps certainly qualify. They're 31-8 here the past few seasons. Note that the Terps are 4-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. During that span, the Hokies were 0-2 ATS as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 9-16 ATS their last 25 in that situation. These teams haven't met for several years. However, the Terps dominated the most recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Look for the 1-point loss against Xavier to take a toll on the Hokies and for homecourt to prove the difference for the Terrapins.

I'm playing on RUTGERS. While the Knights have struggled of late, I expect a date with Clemson to be just what they need to "get going." This is a very talented Rutgers team which hasn't been playing up to its potential of late. They lost three straight close ones, two of those coming on the road. The Tigers, a team they faced in the NCAA Tournament earlier this year, will bring out their best. You may recall that the NCAA Tourney game was very low-scoring. Rutgers won 60-56. With an O/U line in the mid 120's, this one figures to also be low-scoring. That should suit the Knights just fine. They're 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS their last seven home games, with an O/U line in the 120s. During that span, the Tigers are 2-4 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. In fact, the Tigers are just 6-12 ATS (5-13 SU) on the road, overall. While the Tigers' record is better than the Knights' record, keep in mind that this is the Tigers' first true road game of the season. Their two toughest opponents were St Bonaventure and West Virginia and the Tigers lost both. While the Tigers would love to get some revenge, its not happening tonight. Rutgers bounces back. 

I'm playing on TCU. If looking at the Horned Frogs' 1-4 ATS record, it might be easy to think that they haven't been playing well. That's not the case though. The Frogs have won four of their five games and they've just narrowly missed out on the cover in three of their wins. Laying 22, they won by 16. Laying 13.5, they won by 13. Laying 11, they won by nine. In other words, they were a bucket or two away from covering. They didn't play well against Santa Clara, in their lone loss. However, I like how they responded in their win over Pepperdine. Back home and with a number of much tougher games coming up, I expect the Frogs to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, in order to build up their confidence and momentum. They're catching Austin Peay at the right time. The Governors are at the end of a long 5-game road trip. It started way back on 11/12, with a 73-55 blowout loss at SUI. Now, more than two weeks later, they're finally at the end of the trip. I expect them to be a bit "road weary" and don't believe they'll have necessary energy to compete with the Frogs on their home floor. While the Frogs are 6-4 ATS their last 10, after failing to cover their previous three, the Governors are 1-3 ATS their last four road games, with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on Fresno/Cal OVER the total. This was a really low O/U line to begin with and it came down from its opener. With all due respect to the defenses, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that the OVER is 12-4 the past few seasons, when Cal played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. One of those was when these teams last met, in 2019. The O/U line was 128.5. They combined for 132. The previous season, the O/U line was 143.5 for their game. They combined for 168. Again, we're working with an even lower number here. With Cal just 2-4 to start the season, note that Fresno has seen the OVER go 4-0 its past four against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Despite their poor record, the Bears are small favorites. Therefore, its worth noting that the OVER is 9-2 the past 11 times that they were favored. That includes a 4-0 mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. Going back further finds the OVER at a profitable 29-13 their last 42, in that role. As for the Bulldogs, they've seen the OVER go 12-3 after scoring less than 60 in their previous game. Both teams are looking to win this one and the scoring should continue the entire way. Expect a "relatively" high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on ORAL ROBERTS. Naturally, I respect OSU. While they lost Cunningham from last year's team, the Cowboys are still really strong. That said, this is a tough spot and I expect them to have their hands full. Its the day after Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are on the road. After a little break, they have a big game against Wichita State on deck. Those teams played a 3-point game last year. Speaking of close games, Oral Roberts always comes to play against these Cowboys. These teams met at OSU last year and the Cowboys won by only five. In fact, the same was true the previous season. OSU was laying double-digits in both games but the scores were 83-78 and 80-75. Abmas scored in double-digits in both games including a 33-point game last year. He's back and leading the Golden Eagles again. Oral Roberts is 6-1 ATS its last seven as an underdog and 17-6 ATS against winning teams, the past few seasons. Grab the points and expect another close one.  

I'm playing on SMU. When these teams met last season, the Mustangs were favored by 17. They won by 30. This should prove to be another mismatch. The Mustangs haven't fared too well at the betting window, thus far. However, they've been close. In their first game, they won by 24, as a 28-point favorite. Next, they lost on the road at Oregon. No shame in that. They bounced back from that loss with a 47-point win, as a 20.5 point favorite. Then, they won by 17, laying 20. That was followed by an OT loss against Missouri. Off that tough loss, they stumbled again the next day. Now, off b2b losses, they're absolutely going to be in an angry mood. While the Mustangs have scored 70 or more in each of their last four games, the Bearkats have failed to hit the 60 mark in two of their last three. Last game, they managed a mere 55 points against Boston. They're 1-5 ATS the past couple of seasons, after failing to score 60 points. Expect the Mustangs to bounce back with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on UNC Asheville/UNC over the total. These instate foes use to meet fairly regularly. They haven't faced each other for 10 years though. The last meeting was in November of 2011. That game had an O/U line of 153.5 and finished with 166 points. I expect history to repeat itself. The Tar Heels have seen four straight games finish above the number. Those games had scores of 161, 177, 177 and 181. Even their first game, the lone one which stayed below the total, finished with 160 points. While its last game was low-scoring, UNC Asheville is an experienced team, capable of scoring. The Bulldogs scored 75 at UAB and followed it up with a 101-point effort. Defending is a different matter. In two games as a double-digit underdog, the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 87.5 points. Needless to say, the Tar Heels are capable of exceeding that average. Off b2b losses and with Michigan on deck, the Heels will absolutely be looking to put up a big number, too. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that UNC hosted a team with a losing road record. Look for those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on TCU. The Broncos are undefeated to start the season. I expect that to change Monday. Like Santa Clara, the Horned Frogs are undefeated. While the competition has been relatively weak, the Frogs have still taken care of business. Every win has come by double-digits. TCU is holding opposing teams to a field goal percentage of 33.5. That ranks among the best marks in the entire country. Entering the season, Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek was quoted as saying: "We're very much a work in progress with this group coming together." Facing the best defense that they've seen, I believe that we'll finally see some "growing pains" from Sendek's group tonight. 

I'm playing on UNLV. Naturally, I respect the Shockers. In fact, I've already played on them this season. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying points. For starters, though technically a "neutral court affair," this game will be played in Vegas. Also, the Rebels are stronger than some might realize. They're only loss was last game against a very strong Michigan team. Additionally, the Shockers are off a tough OT loss against Arizona. Those type of defeats can be tough to bounce back from. Note that the Shockers are 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) the last four times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. The Rebels, who have already been involved in three very close games, are 7-0-1 ATS the past eight times that they were a "neutral court" underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points.

I'm playing on TEXAS. This is an absolute mismatch. The Spartans left it all on the floor last game. They came up a point short though, losing 67-66 at Cal Baptist. Now, off that tough loss and playing their third straight on the road, they take a big step up in class, as they face one of the top teams in the country. Note that SJSU is just 11-21 ATS (4-28 SU) its last 32, when facing a team with a winning record. The Longhorns bounced back from their loss to Gonzaga with a double-digit win. They allowed just 49 points. The Spartans, who have managed 66 and 62 their last two games, figure to have trouble scoring. Not Texas. The Longhorns scored more than 90 in their opener and they'll be looking to put up a crooked number in this one. Note that Texas is 9-5 ATS its last 14, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. Indeed, this should be one of the bigger blowouts on the board. I see Texas keeping the pedal to the medal the entire way and winning by more than 30. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Hofstra has been a force in the CAA for years. However, this is a tough spot. With Speedy Claxton taking over as head coach, the Pride switched their defense from zone to man-to-man. That may ultimately prove dividends. However, it's still a work in progress. They allowed 82 points last game and are allowing an average of 76. This Hofstra team has a lot of new faces and will take some time for everyone to learn to work together. Here, the Pride are playing their fourth straight road game. Off an 8-point loss at Iona, they're now taking a big step up in class. Indeed, this is a strong Maryland team. Off an upset loss, the Terps are going to be angry, too. Maryland coach Turgeon noted: "We have to be great on defense until we learn how to move the ball a little bit better...." Expect the Terps to elevate their defensive intensity, playing their best game and taking out their frustration on their outmatched road-weary guests. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. While I respect the Panthers, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in either of their first two games. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that they're ready to put it all together en route to their first victory at the betting window. Arkansas won't be caught off guard: Coach Musselman noted this of Northern Iowa: "They're an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. They were banged up injury-wise their first two games. They'e now back healthy. … We better bring our A-game ... " I expect his team to listen and for them to be ready. While Musselman may be right that the Panthers will end up pretty good, they're not there yet and they won't be ready for what they encounter here. Yes, they are getting their players back from injury, as Musselman noted. However, this is no place to try and "work out the kinks." Note that the Panthers are 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. While they may not have been covering, the Razorbacks have still been playing well and winning comfortably. With K-State on deck, they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. 

I'm playing on WICHITA STATE. The Shockers have been tested in winning their first two games. They failed to cover in either. Those results have helped keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. I feel that the Shockers are ready to put it all together with a more lopsided victory. Wichita State's schedule gets considerably more difficult after this. The Shockers have a mix of quality veterans (Etienne, Udeze, Dennis) and young talent. Coach Brown knows the young players will benefit from a blowout win and gain much needed confidence for the more difficult upcoming games. The Texans know all about tough games. They began their season by playing at Stanford. Then, things got even tougher for them with a game at Kansas. (To their credit, the Texans did "relatively" well. They lost by 12 and 26.) Still, they've already had to travel to the West Coast and back and now they're playing their third straight very difficult road game. I expect it to catch up with them. Shockers keep the pedal to the metal and win going away. 

I'm playing on BELMONT. I won with the Purple Aces in their last game. However, now they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Belmont is a quality team, a major step up in class from the team (IUPUI) which Evansville just faced. The Bruins have been invited to the postseason 14 of the past 16 years, going to the NCAA Tournament in nine of those. Last season, the Bruins finished with 26 wins. Entering Selection Sunday, they were tied with Gonzaga for the most wins in the country. This year's team essentially brought back everyone from last year's team, too. These teams met last season, at Evansville. The Bruins won by nine. Four Belmont players (Wood, Smith, Muszynski, Murphy) scored in double-digits. All four are back. However, it was Ben Sheppard who led the way with 25 points in the Bruins' first game. The fact that Evansville won and covered last game, while Belmont lost its only game, has helped to keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been. The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS their last five, after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 5-0 ATS after allowing 90 or more in their previous game. Expect an angry Belmont team to bounce back and win this one in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Huskies have a very difficult non-conference schedule. Those tough games were designed to get them ready for conference play, not with the thought of actually winning them. Somehow, NIU managed to win the first of them, an upset at Washington. However, this is an even stronger opponent and the Huskies won't be catching anyone by surprise, this time. I like the fact that Indiana was tested but prevailed in its first game. That will serve as a wake-up call. As for the Huskies big win, they're 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off a SU win and 0-5-1 ATS their last six, when off a cover. With a new coach, they're still going to go through some early growing pains. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -18.5 to -24 range, 25-15 ATS (40-0 SU!) the past 40. Expect a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on EVANSVILLE. I believe that this will prove to be a mismatch. The Purple Aces have a lot going for them. They match up well against this team, they're playing at home and they're considerably more experienced, entering the season. While their record still wasn't great, the Purple Aces were a much improved team last season. That was with a new coach and a young team. Now, their coach is in his second year and four of five starters returned. This is a team on the rise. Yet, Evansville knows that wins won't be easy in its competitive conference. It needs to take advantage of opportunities like this one. That's particularly true with the Aces off a loss at Cincinnati and with a tough road game, against an experienced Belmont team, on deck. IUPUI is excited to have a new coach of its own. That said, the Jaguars, who are off yet another sub-500 year, lost last season's top three scorers. Crenshaw may have once been a hero, as a player, at the school, but he can't be expected to work miracles overnight. Expect Evansville to pull away with a comfortable double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Detroit Mercy / Wyoming UNDER the total. When these teams met in November of 2019, the O/U line was only 131. They combined for just 125. We're working with a considerably higher O/U number this evening. While I respect these offenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Titans are better than they were two years ago, as they started to turn the cornder midway through last season. That said, they've got a number of new transfers and its going to take some time to get back to where they were. Wyoming led the Mountain West in points scored last year. While the Cowboys will again be dangerous, coach Linder has emphasized improved defense in his second season. Linder's Northern Colorado defenses were generally stingy and he expects improvement on that side of the ball. Detroit has seen the UNDER go 11-6 in non-conf games the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 8-2 when Wyoming played in the month of November. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on RICE. The Owls have gotten stronger each of the past few seasons and this should be their best team yet. Last year started shakily, injuries taking a toll. However, by the end of the season, the Owls were playing their best. They made it to the C-USA semis and posted their first winning season in the past several years. Now, hungry to build off that and to get off to a fast start, they bring back every starter from that team. Unlike their hosts, the Waves lost a couple of key players from last year's team. Not only did Pepperdine lose Kessler Edwards to the NBA, but point guard Colbey Ross is also gone. He's Pepperdine's all-time scoring AND assists leader. In fact, he was the first Div 1 player to score 2200 or more points, while adding 800 assists and 400 rebounds. Needless to say, those two will be missed. While Pepperdine is still going to be solid, I feel that the Owls, who have been money in recent home games, will have the advantage out of the gate. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Gonzaga/Baylor UNDER the total. Obviously, both offenses are excellent. The same can be said of the defenses though and this is an extremely high number. Keep in mind that when these teams faced each other in March a couple of years ago, the O/U line was 147. (They combined for 154.) Yes, these are different and stronger teams but those ones could really score, too. Indeed, this is a generously high number tonight. Before giving up 90 in the OT win over UCLA, the Bulldogs had allowed 55, 71, 65 and 66 in their NCAA tournament games. Meanwhile, the Bears have held opponents to 55, 63, 51, 72 and 59 points. The only time that Gonzaga allowed 90 points, prior to the UCLA game, the Bulldogs allowed 67 (against Auburn) next time out, that game staying below the total. The last two times that the Bulldogs allowed more than 80, they responded by allowing 70 and 57 in their next game, both of those staying below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Houston/Baylor UNDER the total. While I won with the 'over' in Baylor's last game, the Cougars are an entirely different opponent than Arkansas was. Here's what I said about Houston's defense, prior to the Oregon State game: "The Beavers have been on a great run but, in my opinion, they haven't faced a defense, or a team, like this one. That might sound funny, given that they just beat Loyola-Illinois, the team which allows the fewest points in the league. The Cougars are #2 in that department though, allowing only 57.5 ppg, despite playing a tougher schedule. (Houston's strength of schedule was #77 compared to #97 for Loyola.) The big difference between the two defenses, however, is that Houston is #1 in the entire country in terms of opponents field goal percentage. At 41.3%, Loyola ranked towards the middle of the pack. Indeed, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the country ... " While Baylor will be tough to slow down, the Cougars have the team to do it. The Cougars' last three games have had combined scores of 128, 108 and 123. Baylor's 62-51 win over Villanova shows that the Bears are capable of playing at a slower pace, too. The UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 times that Houston was an underdog and 10-3 the last 13 times that Houston faced an opponent which scores 77 or more points per game. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I believe that Michigan is peaking at the right time. I successfully played against the Wolverines in their loss to Ohio State. However, I came back and supported the Wolverines in their win over LSU. Winning that game was no small task. The Tigers were a explosive team with a trio of extremely dangerous offensive threats. Yet, the Wolverines took their best punch and prevailed. The Seminoles represent a different type of threat but I backed the Wolverines once again. Michigan won with ease, looking every bit like the team which dominated the Big Ten most of the way this year. The Bruins beat me last game after I'd won with them in their previous game. They deserve plenty of credit for beating Alabama. That said, the Tide partially handed the gmae to them by missing 14 free throws. (That was the worst free throw performance by any team, with a minimum of 25 attempts, in this tournament, since 2003.) Michigan won't be nearly so generous. While the Bruins are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, the Wolverines are 3-0 ATS their last three, as neutral court favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Expect them to improve on those stats on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on Arkansas/Baylor OVER the total. These teams both saw their last game finish below the total. However, that was due to the type of teams which they were playing. Both these teams can score with the best of them and now that they're up against each other, I expect to see plenty of fireworks. Arkansas averages 81.7 ppg. Baylor averages 83 ppg. Those numbers rank 6th and 11th in the country. Arkansas has seen the OVER go 4-2 when listed as an underdog. As for Baylor's shutting down of Villanova, the Bears have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past eight times that they had allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After I backed the Cougars big in their win over Syracuse, I'm coming right back with them again here. The Beavers have been on a great run but, in my opinion, they haven't faced a defense, or a team, like this one. That might sound funny, given that they just beat Loyola-Illinois, the team which allows the fewest points in the league. The Cougars are #2 in that department though, allowing only 57.5 ppg, despite playing a tougher schedule. (Houston's strength of schedule was #77 compared to #97 for Loyola.) The big difference between the two defenses, however, is that Houston is #1 in the entire country in terms of opponents field goal percentage. At 41.3%, Loyola ranked towards the middle of the pack. Indeed, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Unlike Loyola, Houston can also score. The Ramblers were an offensively challenged team which scores 67.7 ppg while Houston is an explosive offensive team which averages 76.9 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bears average only 70.8 ppg and they allow 67.7. So, the Beavers score six points less than Houston and they allow 10 points more. The Cougars are an excellent rebounding team. The Beavers are not. With the Beavers struggling to score, it all adds up to a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Oregon/USC UNDER the total. Since a 5-game 'under' streak in mid-late February, the Ducks have been seeing their games finish above the total. Matched up against conference rival USC, I expect that 'over' streal to come to an end Sunday. When these teams met this season, they combined for just 130 points. USC held Oregon to 58 points. The Trojans have been even stingier of late. After limiting Drake to just 56 points, the Trojans kept Kansas to a mere 51 points. The UNDER is 15-8-1 the last 24 times that they allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Counting the Kansas game as a 'push,' the UNDER is 5-1-1 the past seven times that the Trojans were listed as favorites. I say the game gets played at a slower pace than many will be expecting, the final combined score again staying beneath the number. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Bruins in their last game. However, Alabama is an entirely different team, a vastly superior one, to Abilene Christian. Alabama can beat teams with their offense or its defense. The Tide took care of Maryland with ease last game, a 96-77 blowout. The previous game, they showed they could dominate defensively, holding their first round opponent (Iona) to just 55 points. While the Bruins have been playing well, they won't be ready for what's waiting for them here. The Tide haven't lost in more than a month and all their wins over that stretch, with the exception of a 1-point win over LSU, have been by five or more points. The Tide may not score 96 again but they'll score more than enough to pull away for another win and cover.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I love the matchup here. The Cougars were severely tested last round and I expect that to serve as a wake-up call. The Cougars have an outstanding backcourt; deep, talented and experienced. The well-coached Cougars can beat opponents from the outside and if teams try to sell out to guard the perimeter, then they dominate inside. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where they're really good. In fact, they allow a mere 57.9 ppg, opposing teams hitting just 37.3% of their field goals. (That's the best field goal percentage allowed in the entire country and second fewest points allowed in the country!) Syracuse, by comparison, allows more than 70 ppg, more than 76 ppg away from home. The Orange haven't fared too well in recent seasons against other top tier defenses - and they haven't faced one this good. Syracuse is just 7-13 ATS (6-14 SU) its last 20, against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. While they've put together a nice run without him, this is a matchup where the Orange could have really used Bourama Sidibe. Having not played since 3/21 and taking some practices off, Houston's Jarreau will be ready to play. While he may be less than 100%, he's a warrior and I expect him to be ready to go. Though they're the favorites, I feel that the pressure is a little less now on Houston. Not only is Syracuse a big name team from a top conference but down double-digits, late in the second half last game, the Cougars were already done. Look for them to carry the momentum from that comeback into Saturday's game, ultimately, their superior defense leading to the win and cover. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Oral Roberts has been one of the best stories of the tournament. However, that story comes to an end here. In case you haven't noticed, the SEC turned out to be really good. Alabama is still looking strong. LSU very nearly knocked off Michigan. The Razorbacks have beaten both those teams, too. They're also off a win over a strong Texas Tech team. These teams actually met last season. While Arkansas won by "only" 11, its worth mentioning that the line for that game was -19.5. Yet, this Arkansas team is bigger and deeper. It wasn't that long ago that Oral Roberts lost by 15 to South Dakota State. So, this team can be blown out. I expect the Razorbacks, 16-6 ATS as favorites, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, pulling away for perhaps the biggest blowout of the weekend. 

I'm playing on LSU/Michigan UNDER the total. These offenses are both very capable. That's why we're working with such a high number. However, the same can be said for the defenses. The Wolverines are an excellent defensive team. They allow an average of jus 65.4 ppg, while holding opposing teams to less than a 40% field goal percentage. The Tigers aren't as stingy as that (not many teams are) but they flexed their defensive muscles in the first round. They held St. Bonaventure to a mere 61 points. While no team has scored more than 70 against the Wolverines in their last five games, no team has scored more than 80 against the Tigers in their last six. With the UNDER at 8-1 the past nine (3-0 L3) times that the Wolverines played with one day or less worth of rest in between games, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gators are flying under the radar a bit, in my opinion. They could easily be laying double-digits in this one; Ohio State was -15 against Oral Roberts in the first round. Of course, the Golden Eagles deserve plenty of credit for upsetting the Buckeyes. Doing it twice in a row, however, is an entirely different matter. The Gators rallied when it mattered to take care of Virginia Tech. Now, momentum on their side, they get a dream matchup that they're more than capable of taking advantage of. Oral Roberts is 1-13 (SU) its last 14 against SEC teams. The Gators are 12-7 ATS their last 19, as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Oral Roberts will likely be a popular pick as the Gators aren't getting much respect and many love to back the Cinderella team. I'm not buying it though. Superior defense and athletes, the Gators pull away for a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on Winthrop/Villanova OVER the total. Over the years, I've often had success with 'unders' in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with a "big name team" playing a lesser known one. I look for situations where I expect a heavy favorite to get off to a big lead and then slow the pace. This game features a big name team against a lesser one. However, the big name team (Villanova) is not a heavy favorite and I'm not expecting a blowout. Indeed, Winthrop comes in with a 23-1 record and thinking upset. Indeed, you'll hear a lot of people saying the same thing. It could happen. That said, banged up or not, this is still Villanova, we're talking about. While I don't know about the side, I DO know that the Eagles can score. They average 79.5 ppg. They're hitting better than 47% of their field goals, the past five games and have scored 80 or more in three straight. Yes, they are dealing with injuries but the Wildcats aren't going to roll over. They still average more than 75 ppg themselves and know that they're not going to win this game without putting up fairly big number. As I write this, Villanova is a -6.5 point favorite, across the board. That's worth mentioning as the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Wildcats were neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Its possible the line comes down and falls out of that range. Either way, however, during the same span, the OVER is 11-6 in all Villanova's neutral site games. Winthrop hasn't been an underdog for a long time. The last two times, however, that the Eagles were underdogs (12/3 and 12/19) the final scores were 155 and 158, both finishing above the number. The OVER is also 5-1 the past six times that Winthrop played with seven or more day's rest in between games. Expect those stats to improve Friday night. 

I'm playing on Ohio State / Illinois UNDER the total. The Buckeyes played extremely stingy defense in holding Michigan to 67 points yesterday. Illinois also did very well in keeping Iowa to 71. Keep in mind that Iowa was averaging a whopping 84.2 ppg while Michigan was averaging 76.7. While Illinois can also put up a lot of points, the Buckeyes just held them to 73 a week ago. Their problem was that they only scored 68 themselves. That game had an O/U line of 150 or 151 and finished with 141. A look at the past 20 meetings, prior to last week, reveals that they all had O/U lines in the 120s, 130s and 140s. With all due respect to the Illini offense, I feel this one is generously high, once again. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. The Rams have done a great job. They lost all their starters from last year and were very young coming into this season. Picked #7 in the preseason, they deserve a lot of credit for getting this far. That said, I feel that their youth will finally catch up with them against an experienced St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies were the opposite of the Rams in that they brought back all their starters from the previous season. While they were only projected to be fourth in the conference, like VCU, the Bonnies exceeded the expectations of many. Still, their spot in this game is arguably far less surprising than VCU. While the teams did split two reg. season meetings, the Bonnies held a 134-121 edge in total points. The Bonnies average the most offensive rebounds in the conference and the Rams give up a lot of them. Ultimately, however, its the Bonnies' superior defense whiich will see them win this one. The Bonnies have allowed 53, 59, 55, 41, 53 and 58 their last six games. No team has reached 60. VCU, on the other hand, has allowed 65 or more points in four of its past five games. VCU should be in great shape next season, but this one belongs to St. Bonaventure. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. To their credit, the Hoyas have been playing great. However, they've run into a superior opponent here and I believe that their run will come to a convincing halt. Keep in mind that the Bluejays were expected to finish 2nd in the conference, before the season. Georgetown was projected, by some, to finish last. So, the Hoyas have already exceeded expectations. Eventually, however, talent wins out. The Hoyas managed a major upset of the Bluejays on Feb 3rd, as they were 14 point road underdogs. That woke up the Bluejays though and they crushed the Hoyas in the rematch, a 63-48 beatdown, at Georgetown. Today, the Bluejays catch the Hoyas playing their fourth game in four days. While Gtown had to play on 3/10, Creighton had the day off. That extra day will catch up with the Hoyas here. Look for the Bluejays to blow out the Hoyas, the favorite improving to 5-1 ATS the last six meetings. 

I'm playing on OSU/Texas UNDER the total. The Cowboys saw yesterday's game against Baylor finish above the number. However, they'll face a much different type of team in Texas. While Baylor was averaging 84.8 ppg, the Longhorns average 72.3 ppg. Meanwhile, they also allow 66.6 ppg on the road. The Cowboys were able to beat the Baylor defense down the floor but I don't expect that strategy to ve so effective today. Rather, I expect a considerably slower tempo than we saw yesterday. Keep in mind that the last meeting between these teams went to OT and yet they still combined for just 142 points. While only 14 points were scored in OT, they still had just 130 in regulation. All things considered, this number is generously high. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair, the final combined score staying beneath the total. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Michigan has some some chinks in its armor lately. The rival Spartans beat them to close the season and yesterday saw Maryland jump all over them out of the gate. Remember, Illinois pounded them to begin the month, too. While the Wolverines did come back to win and cover yesterday, I expect them to have an even tougher task against a revenge-minded Buckeye team which appears to be peaking at just the right time. Ohio State had been absolutely rolling before a 5-point loss to these same Wolverines on 2/21. That led to a 4-game slide, a 5-game skid at the betting window. The Buckeyes bounced back when it mattered though, beating Minnesota Thursday and Purdue yesterday. Order restored and looking to avenge the loss that started their skid, I expect the best of the Buckeyes in this one. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS their last seven, after a SU win. Expect them to give Michigan all it can handle, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Cowboys have been on a great run but I expect it to come to an end in a big way today. Baylor won both this season's meetings by double-digits. The Bears are on a different level. They score 85.3 ppg and they allow just 65.6. By comparison, the Cowboys score 76.7 and allow 72.3. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three. While dominant at home, the Bears can win on the road, too. The Cowboys learned that the hard way. They had a 34-25 late in the first half in this season's game at Stillwater, but the Bears fought back to win 81-66. Baylor trailed 50-48 with 12 minutes left, then went on a 19-1 run and led by double-digits the rest of the way. Indeed, this team will be hard to keep up with the entire way. Look for yesterday's game vs. K-State to serve as a "wake up call" and for the Bears to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, en route to a third double-digit win over the Cowboys. 

I'm playing on Maryland/Michigan OVER the total. These teams have both been involved in some 'unders' recently. Both are off a low-scoring game against Michigan State. Thats not surprising (I had the under in Michigan/MSU) though, as the Spartans are somewhat offensively challenged but still capable of playing stingy defense. This is a much different matchup though and I expect a faster tempo (and considerably more points) than the games against the Spartans. The recent low scores have worked in our favor, as this O/U line is lower than it easily could have been. Consider that this season's two meetings had O/U lines of 142.5 and 143.5. Speaking of those games, despite the higher O/U lines, they both finished well above the number with combined scores of 150 and 157. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Texas/Texas Tech UNDER the total. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 127 points, a 68-59 win for Texas Tech. That makes it five of the past six meetings which have finished with 130 or fewer combined points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. Both teams are stingy. The Raiders allow 63 ppg and hold opponents to 40.9% shooting. Texas holds opponents to a 40.9% field goal percentage, the number dipping to 40.4% when the Longhorns play away from home. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Longhorns were underdogs on a neutral court. Look for nothing to come easy on the offensive end, as those stats improve this evening. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins closed the reg. season with three straight losses. Those results have helped us by keep this line lower than it otherwise easily could have been, which I believe is providing us with excellent value. (The Bruins were -11.5 point favorites for this season's lone reg. season meeting.) Note that UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past six times it was off three straight defeats.  The Beavers had a nice run towards the end of the season but got brought back down to earth in a big way by rival Oregon. I don't believe that they're going to be able to keep up with a motivated Bruins team. While the Bruins score 71.2 ppg on the road, the Beavers score just 63.4. The #4 seed is 14-7 all-time vs. the #5 seed, in the Pac 12 tournament. Expect the Bruins to improve on those stats Thursday, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Rice won both regular season meetings but the Owls haven't played well since. I don't believe that they should be favored by this much. Last time out, the Owls barely beat "Our Lady Of The Lake." Prior to that, the Owls had lost four straight, failing to cover in the final three of those. Those losses came by 21, 44 and 43 points. The Golden Eagles have been far more competitive. They're 1-2 SU their final three but both the losses were by single digits. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Golden Eagles step up and score the upset, setting up a date with Marshall on Wednesday. 

I'm playing on PEPPERDINE. The Cougars are definitely tough and I respect them. The Waves are a lot better than many people realize though. This is a veteran team which has been waiting for this day. The Waves have already beaten BYU once this season (76-73 in the last meeting) and they believe that they're capable of doing so again. I like the fact that Pepperdine already has a tournament game under its belt. It beat Santa Clara 78-70 on Saturday. BYU, on the other hand, hasn't played yet this month. The Cougars are an ugly 43-69 ATS in neutral court games over the years while Pepperdine is a solid 50-39 ATS. That includes a 10-3 ATS mark in the Waves' last 13 neutral site games. The Cougars are 0-2 ATS their last two conf. tourney games, an ugly 11-28 ATS over the years. I expect the Waves to give then all they can handle and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Michigan/MSU UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 119 points when they met a few days ago. Including that result, both teams have seen each of their past four games finish below the total. Normally, that would lead to the O/U number falling by quite a lot. However, in this case, we're still working with a relatively high total. Note that the Wolverines have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The Spartans managed just 50 points in the first meeting; they've scored 55, 64 and 50 their past three games. The UNDER is 4-2 after they scored 60 or less in their previous game and 7-1 when Michigan allowed 60 or less in its previous. Expect another defensive affair. 

I'm playing on FURMAN. I believe that the gap between these teams is wider than the pointspread suggests. Consider that Furman was favored by 11 when the teams met in the reg. season. That was at VMI, too. The Keydets actually managed a 1-point win in that one. That works in our favor here, in my opinion, as it will ensure Furman takes take this game for granted. Keep in mind that Furman had won the previous 10 games in the series. The Keydets haven't played since way back on 2/20, which will hurt them here. The Paladins are 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Rebels have a lot working for them here. They're the superior team. They're playing at home. They're looking to avenge an earlier upset loss. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. Both teams played on 3/2. However, the Commodores also went and squeezed a non-conference road game in, at Cincinnati, on 3/4. That's going to catch up with them here. The last time these teams played here, the Rebels were laying -10.5 and won by 26. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. They're also 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Going back, finds them at 21-9 ATS in that situation. Additionally, the Rebels are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Catching the Commodores playing their third straight on the road, expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on TEXAS-ARLINGTON. The #3 seed Mavericks are favored for good reason in this one. The #6 seed Trojans score just 60.2 ppg when playing away from home. The Mavericks, on the other hand, score 72 ppg, when playing on the road. These teams didn't meet during the reg. season but they have met in the first week of March, each of the past two years. In both cases, the Mavericks won by double-digits, 78-64 on 3/3/20 and 79-66 on 3/2/19. They were laying -5.5 and -5 for those games. While Troy hasn't won a game in a month, Texas-Arlington is off b2b wins. Playing better basketball, I say the Mavericks take care of the Trojans, once again. *Top Sun Belt Tourney Play

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a unique situation, brought on by Covid. The Bearcats would normally be playing a conference opponent, as would the Commodores. The Bearcats were supposed to host SMU but with that game being put on pause, the teams were able to arrange this one. Not only do I believe it favors the home team, I also believe that a visit from a weak and struggling SEC team is exactly what the Bearcats need. The Bearcats have won six of eight and they nearly beat Memphis last time out. Coach Brannen noted: "I told the guys, 'If you just show that fight for a longer period of time, we would have won that game. I felt like we should have won this game." The Commodores are 3-9 their last 12 games and they got pounded last time out. That was on 3/2, which doesnt allow much time in between games. Not when taking this game on short notice and playing on the road. Cincy, by comparison, hasn't played since 2/27 and hasn't had to travel. The Bearcats are a perfect 17-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, against teams with losing records. Expect them to improve on those stats, while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. On a 10-game winning streak, the Aztecs are tough to beat. Looking to clinch the regular season title, they've still got something to play for. That said, they just won their home finale and they've got bigger games ahead of them. I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot and also that the line is too high. The Rebels have quietly won three of their past four. The lone loss came by three points. After rallying from a 16-point deficit to win by two last time out, UNLV Coach T.J. Otzelberger had this to say: "I felt like down the stretch, even though we still weren’t perfect, it was as together as we’ve been as a team and I could tell in the huddle and as we communicated that the guys felt good about how they were playing together. Hopefully that’s something we can continue to build on as we move forward.”Speaking of close games, the Aztec won by just four points last time out and their previous game went to OT. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I like how this one sets up for the home team. Oregon State has been on an ATS roll but with a big game against archrival Oregon on deck, its going to be tough to focus on the Utes. Utah got back on track with a win over USC last time out and I expect that win to generate some positive momentum. While the Beavers won this season's earlier meeting at OSU, the Utes are a dominant 88-55 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Also, note that Utah is 4-2 ATS its past six as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range, a lucrative 29-16 ATS its last 45 in that role. The Utes won by 12 last meeting here and I expect another big win tonight. Lay the points.

I'm playing on NIU. Both teams are going to view this as an opportunity at a rare win. Playing at home, I expect the Huskies to be the team which gets it. While NIU's 23-16 home record the past 2+ seasons is certainly nothing special, it looks really good when compared to Western Michigan's 7-33 road record. This season, the Broncos are getting outscored by an average of 75.9 to 59.1 when playing on the road. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Broncos are 0-7 their last seven games with a total in the 130s. The home team has won four straight in the series, NIU winning the last two here by scored of 72-69 and 76-74. Expect another victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on Oklahoma/Oklahoma State UNDER the total. These teams played a very high-scoring game against each other a couple of nights ago. Future NBA draft pick Cade Cunningham had a career high 40 points and the game went to OT. Yes, the game would have still finished above the total without OT. However, take away those 34 OT points and its a lot closer to the number. Playing each other for the second time in three days, I expect the rematch to be considerably lower-scoring. The Cowboys have only allowed 80 or more points in two other instances. In both cases, their next game finished below the total. They allowed 60 and 67 their next game. Going back a bit and we find the UNDER is 8-4 their last 12 after allowing 80 or more. Going back still further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 63-38 when OSU played with one day's rest in between games. As for the Sooners, they've seen the UNDER go 18-6 the past 24 times that they'd scored 80 or more in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 38-18 when OU was attempting to avenge a home loss. The last time that the Sooners allowed 80 or more, they responded by allowing 56 their next game, that one finishing below the total by more than 20. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. These teams met a couple of days ago. The Aggies jumped out to a big lead but took their foot off the gas late and allowed Nevada to sneak in for the late cover. I expect them to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. While they were off b2b losses entering last game, the Aggies now have their momentum back. They're 9-2 SU/ATS off a conf. win. They're also still a healthy 11-5 ATS as favorites. Nevada did a good job Friday considering it had a long layoff before that game. That layoff figures to catch up with them in this one though. I say the Aggies complete the sweep in "blowout fashion." 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. With all due respect to Eastern Kentucky, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. The Tigers, admittedly, have underachieved this season. They're usually competitive though, the majority of their losses coming by "two touchdowns" or less. One of their losses which came by more than that was at home against these same Colonels. I expect that blowout loss to provide some added motivation for the Tigers here. Having just snapped Belmont's 21-game winning (30-game OVC) streak last game, I won't be shocked if and when the Colonels have a bit of a letdown against the lowly Tigers. Grab the generous points and look for this one to be a lot closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal won by 10 when these teams met at OSU, in January. I expect another double-digit win today. This is one of Stanford's best roles. The Cardinal are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. They haven't forgotten that the Beavers swept them last season and they'll be happy to return the favor this year. The last time that the Cardinal were off b2b losses, they responded by blowing out Cal, winning by 15. The previous time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with an outright win (and cover) against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back big once again. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Nevada is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Aggies are going to be in an angry mood. The last time that they were off b2b losses, the Aggies reeled off consecutive SU/ATS victories, winning by nine and 16 points. Even off the b2b losses, the Aggies are still 11-4 SU/ATS in conference play. They've outscored conf. opponents by an average score of 76.1 to 60.3. Its important to note that the Aggies were off a long Covid layoff prior to the two losses. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, Utah State is hosting a team which has had a long layoff. Nevada hasn't played since 2/7. Nevada has played just two road games the past six weeks and went 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on CAL. Both these teams will be viewing this game as a chance at a rare conference victory. Playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier road loss, I expect the Bears to be the team which rises to the occasion and gets it. Note that the Bears are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the revenge role. Cal is also 5-2 ATS the past seven times it was a home underdog of three or less, all five wins came outright. During that span, the Beavers were 0-2 ATS (and SU) as road favorites of three or less. The Bears have outscored visiting teams by a 68.4 to 67 margin here. Not great but much better than being outscored by an average of 68.3 to 61, which is the case for the Beavers, when on the road. The Bears eked out a close one the last time these teams met here and they've won 18 of the past 21 as the home team in this series. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. It would be easy to make a case for the Seminoles. They've been playing very well and are off a road win. They also blew out the Hurricanes in this season's earlier meeting. Meanwhile, Miami is off a blowout loss. While all that may seem to point to the Noles, its actually working in Miami's favor. For starters, we're now working with a very generous line. Consider that the earlier meeting, at FSU, had a line of -11.5. Last year's game here at Miami had a line of -6. Speaking of last year, the Canes also got blown out on the road but the game here was close the entire way, decided by only four points. The Canes are 8-5 ATS their last 13, when off three or more consec. losses. They're also 8-5 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS when attempting to avenge a blowout loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Noles are just 3-10 ATS against sub-500 teams, the past 2+ seasons. With FSU potentially looking ahead to UNC, grab the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on RICHMOND. Not only are the Spiders the stronger team and playing at home, they've also got a scheduling advantage. While Richmond has been playing recently, the Minutemen have not. UMass has only played three times since 1/18 and hasn't played a game since 2/6. Thats a long layoff and will likely lead to some rust. It should be noted that the Minutemen may be missing some players, too. These teams last met a year ago, in late February of 2020. Richmond won 95-71, covering by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, look for the Spiders to pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders have had this one circled. You may recall that the Cowboys upset them, in OT, back on the second day of January. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry for this one. The last time that the Raiders lost two in a row, they responded with a win and cover on the road, at LSU. Note that Texas Tech is 10-4 SU/ATS the past 14 times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Cowboys, who have lost some players since the first meeting, are just 9-14 ATS the past 23 times that they were road underdogs of three or less. Lay the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on TENNESEE STATE. Sometimes, all is takes is one win to get a team going. The Tigers finally snapped their losing streak with a win and cover last time out. I expect that victory to provide a spark and I look for them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. I also believe that they're providing excellent value. Consider that the line was -7 for the earlier meeting and that was AT Jacksonville State. Despite playing on the road, the Tigers gave the Gamecocks all they could handle. Jacksonville State won by a single point. The Tigers won both last season's meetings, too. This is a team they feel very comfortable playing against. The Tennessee State defense does a very good job at forcing opponents to turn the ball ove. In fact, they do so on 23.1 % of all possessions, the 28th-best rate among Div. I teams. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, ranks 303rd in that category, forcing turnovers on just 16.7% of possessions. The Gamecocks are off a loss and they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were favored on the road, in the -6.5 to -9 range. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Tigers score the outright win. 

I'm playing on Purdue Fort Wayne. To their credit, the Vikings have played well this season. They still don't score that many points though, as they average only 69.7 ppg. On the road, that number dips to 65.4. Meanwhile, they allow 71.7 on the road. That makes laying points on the road a tough task. Off four straight road games, the Mastadons are going to be very happy to return home. They score a healthy 78.7 ppg here, while allowing 78.4. While the Vikings connect on 41.8% of their field goals, the Mastadons have a 46% field goal percentage. In conference play, the climbs above 47%. After a string of non-covers, the Mastadons broke through with a cover (2 point loss) at Youngstown State last time out. Note that Fort Wayne is 5-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Vikings won both but each was decided by single-digits. The first of those, a 2-point Clev. State win, saw the Mastadons favored by -2 points. Now, we're getting a handful of points. I believe thats providing excellent value and while I'm expecting the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers haven't been covering. However, a date with the rival Golden Eagles is just what the doctor ordered. The Eagles have dropped 14 straight on the road. They've been outscored in those games by an average of 78.2 to 63.5. While the Eagles are 0-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of three or less, the Tigers are quietly a perfect 3-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. Tech won by three, at home, in this season's earlier meeting. However, the Tigers won by 15 in the last game played here, almost exactly a year ago. Expect the revenge-minded Tigers to break through with another victory today, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gamecocks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. South Carolina has been hit hard by Covid and has missed a lot of games, as a result. Its started to catch up with the Gamecocks; they've lost three straight and seven of their last nine. Don't expect the Vols to show them any mercy. Off a loss of their own, the Vols are going to be all business. The last time that they were off a loss, the Vols went on the road and beat Kentucky by nine points. Tennessee outscores teams by a 76.7 to 60.8 margin at home. Meanwhile, South Carolina gives up 76.9 ppg on the road. While the on the road, the Gamecocks allow their hosts to hit 46.5% of their field goals. The Vols, on the other hand, hold visitng teams to a 39.4 field goal percentage. Expect that vastly superior defense to prove the difference as the Vols pull away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on MSU/Purdue OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game against each other earlier, at MSU. That game had an O/U line in the 140s. This evening, we're working with a considerably lower O/U line. Considering that Purdue tends to score considerably more points at home, I believe that's providing us with plenty of value. While the Boilermakers average 74.4 ppg at home, the Spartans allow 76.6 ppg on the road. Purdue has allowed 70 or more points in b2b games while MSU allowed 88 last time out. Overall, the Spartans have been a profitable 'under' team. However, they've only played two games with O/U lines in the 130s and both of those finished above the number. Purdue has played 10 games with O/U lines in the 130s, six of which topped the total. The OVER is 8-3 when Purdue was a favorite. That includes a 2-0 'over' mark when the Boilermakers were favored, at home, in the 3.5 to 6 range. In fact, the OVER is a PERFECT 8-0 the past 2+ seasons when Purdue was a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 range. Expect those stats to improve to 9-0 here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Two of the past four meetings between these rivals have been decided by four points or less. I beleve these teams are very evenly matched and I'm expecting another close one this evening. The Huskies haven't won for awhile. However, they lost by only three against UCLA last time out and a date with the Cougars provides reason for hope. Indeed, this is a team they have a real chance of beating. WSU, which lost by nine on Saturday, is just 1-4-1 ATS (1-5 SU) the past six times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Huskies come in absolutely hungry for a conference victory and looking to avenge an earlier loss at Washington. Grab the points and look for them to improve to 10-6 ATS the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Not only are the Sun Devils angry after getting beaten up by Oregon, they also haven't forgotten the earlier 1-point loss at Oregon State. That result notwithstanding, the Sun Devils are the more talented team in this matchup. Playing at home and highly motivated to bounce back with a victory, I expect them to demonstrate it on Sunday evening. Prior to the 1/16 game, the Sun Devils had beaten the Beavers four straight times. Five of the Beavers' last six losses have been by a minimum of nine points. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Panthers in this one. Both teams lost big last time out but Northern Iowa is much better equipped to bounce back. The Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings. Each of the past three resulted in double-digit wins for the Panthers. Te Crusaders are averaging only 61.8 ppg on the road and they may not even get that many today. Last game, they scored 52, while giving up 76. That was at home. Their last two road games have seen them score 51 and 52 points, respectively. The Crusaders also managed just 51 points the last time that these teams met. The fact that Northern Iowa has struggled at the betting window has helped keep this line reasonable. That changes today, the Panthers keeping the pedal to the metal and pulling away for a double-digit win.