Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs have been winning but not covering. Thats got the line down a lot from what it would have been, to the point where a win will now very likely also result in a cover. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that the Cavs are 78-12 SU their last 90 as favorites while the Red Raiders are 10-17 SU their last 27 as underdogs. Many will only remember that the Cavs needed to hit three free throws in the final second to advance. They'll forget that they played a great game until the final five minutes though. I believe the close wins are going to serve them well here. While the Red Raiders are on a great run, they haven't faced a defense like the one they'll face here. After last year's first round debacle, the Cavs come all the way back and win the title. 

I'm playing on Texas Tech/MSU UNDER the total. Both these teams are extremely stingy defensively. The Spartans have seen each of their last three (and five of their last six) games finish below the total. They held Duke to just 67 last game. Prior to that, they'd allowed 65 or less in five straight. Prior to allowing 69 against Gonzaga, the Red Raiders had allowed 44, 58 and 57 in their previous three games. Note that the 44 was against Michigan, another Big Ten team. Including their win over Northern Kentucky, a game with an O/U line in the mid-130s, Texas Tech has now seen the UNDER go 13-6 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The UNDER is also 14-7 the Raiders' last 21 on a neutral court. During the same span, the Spartans have now seen the UNDER go 19-10 when playing on a neutral court. The Spartans held Duke to 30 points in the first half last game. Before that, they limited LSU to 28 first half points. With the UNDER at 7-1 when the Spartans had held their previous two opponents to 30 or fewer first half points, expect this one to result in a defensive battle. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. With wins over Kansas, UNC and Kentucky, Auburn has certainly taken down some giants, winning a lot of fans in the process. The Tigers haven't faced a team like this one though and I absolutely expect their magical run to come to an end. Auburn, of course, wants to keep going. However, the Tigers have already achieved more than they could have dreamed. The tournament is a success for them, no matter what happens here. Virginia, on the other hand, will not be at all satisfied if it doesnt win this game. While one could argue that puts more pressure on the Cavs, in my opinion, its going to make them that much more focused. There's no letdown for them. This is a team on a mission, out to completely wipe last year's first round debacle from the record books. The Cavs allow just 55 ppg. Before going to OT vs. Purdue, they'd held all three tournament opponents to 56 or fewer points. Expect their dominant defense to be the difference, the Cavs punching their ticket to the Finals while providing us the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on Depaul/USF UNDER the total. Depaul saw all of its March games finish above the number. However, we've reached a new month and I expect a different result here. Note that the recent 'over' streak has helped in leading to a generously high O/U number, much higher than is typical for a game involving South Florida. Indeed, 12 of the Bulls' last 13 games have had O/U lines in the 120s or 130s. The other was in the 140s. Note that the Bulls allowed a mere 47 points last time out, after allowing just 57 in their previous game. Not surprisingly, those games (66-57 and 56-47) both fell below the total. The UNDER is now 4-0 when the Bulls had been favored in their previous three games. Likewise, during the same span, Depaul has seen the UNDER go 7-0 after playing its previous three as a favorite. Thats a combined 11-0 'under' mark. I expect those stats to improve on Monday!

I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils may be a little fortunate to be here but that doesn't mean that they're not a dominant team. Duke beat MSU by seven in 2017 and by nine in 2016. You might be surprised to learn that the Spartans are just 11-23 ATS their last 34 as underdogs of three points or less, when playing away from home. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) this season, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s. The Blue Devils are also 30-4 SU when favored this season. Expect the combination of Williamson and Barrett to prove to be too much for the Spartans, the Blue Devils improving on those stats while covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on Houston/Kentucky UNDER the total. These teams were both dominant defensively through the first two rounds. The Cougars held Ohio State to just 59 points last time out. The Wildcats limited Wofford to a mere 56. Before that, they permitted just 44. In its previous game, Houston allowed 56. Overall, the Cougars 61.1 ppg allowed ranked as the best mark in the AAC. They recently held UConn to 45. In fact, the Cougars rank #1 in the nation field goal percentage defense (36.7 percent), #2 in 3-point field goal percentage defense (27.6 percent) and #1 in scoring defense. Kentucky's 64.5 ppg allowed was second best in the SEC, just behind Florida. The UNDER is now 10-5 the past 15 times that Kentucky had allowed 60 or fewer points in its previous game. There won't be many easy baskets in this one; I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on DUKE. If you watched Duke's last game, or at least caught the highlights of the final few seconds, you'll know that the Blue Devils could easily have been knocked out. They were indeed fortunate to survive. However, they did survive - and that near-tournament-death experience will serve them well here. Duke teams are always talented. This one is ultra-talented. The Hokies got a fortunate draw as they faced Liberty last round. Even that wasn't easy, as they trailed at halftime. Its true that the Hokies upset the Blue Devils less than a month ago. However, that was at Blacksburg and the Blue Devils were without Zion Williamson. The Hokies and their fans think they can beat Duke again. I think they're wrong. Having survived the UCF game and given new life, look for the Blue Devils to avenge last month's loss, providing us the the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on FIU. The Phoenix may have homecourt advantage but the Panthers have other advantages that more than make up for it. FIU scores more points and allows less. The Panthers also force a lot of turnovers. In fact, they led all of Division 1 with 10.6 steals per game. The Panthers, who have won six of eight overall, were 11-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Going back further finds them at 21-11 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points on the road. This is going to be a very high-scoring game, as both teams score a lot and both allow a lot. In fact, the O/U line is curently 176.5 or 177, as I write this. Thats noteworthy as the Phoenix are 0-5 ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of 170 or higher. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing UC Urvine/Oregon UNDER the total. The Ducks are playing dominant defense. They held Wisconsin to 54 points in the opening round after limiting Washington to just 48 in the Pac-12 finals. They've allowed 61 or fewer points in eight of their past nine games, 54 or less in seven of those. The Anteaters have also been very stingy. They allowed 64 in their opener and have now allowed an average of just 59.75 ppg their last four. Note that the UNDER is 6-3 when they'd allowed 65 or less in b2b games. The UNDER is also 11-6 when the Anteaters had allowed 30 or fewer first half points, in b2g games. While this O/U line may initially seem a little low, keep in mind that the UNDER is 4-1 when the Ducks played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 2-0 when the Ducks were listed as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 9-4 the last 13 times that Oregon was in that situation. Expect those stats to improve, as defense takes center stage in this one. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols got tested for awhile in their opener. However, they pulled away when it mattered. Having had their "wake-up call," I expect Schofield and co. to flex their muscles and to deliver a double-digit win vs. an over-matched Iowa team. The Hawkeyes managed an upset of Cincinnati in the opener. However, Tennessee is in an entirely different class. Even with the win over the Bearcats, Iowa is still just 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog, the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Vols are 2-0 as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Having failed to cover in either of their last two games, note that the Vols are a lucrative 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they were off b2b games, where they'd failed to cover the spread. The Vols are better on both sides of the ball; they score more and allow less. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/MSU UNDER the total. In this battle of Big Ten rivals, expect defense to take center stage. The Spartans have held the Gophers to 57 and 55 points, the last two meetings. Not surprisingly, both stayed below the total. Those two games were in 2018 and 2019. The two 2017 meetings were even lower-scoring, 63-58 and 65-47. The Gophers put up a big number last time out but are going to have a tough time doing so here. Note that the UNDER is 15-10 the past 25 times that they scored 85 or more points in their previous game and 12-8 the past 20 times that they had allowed 75 or more in b2b games. As for this season's Spartans, they've seen the UNDER go 7-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s and 3-0 when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for the UNDER to imrpove to 5-0 their last five, when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the 140-144.5 range. 

I'm playing on Michigan. The Big 10 has looked pretty strong thus far and the Wolverines have looked as good as any from that conference. They cruised to a 74-55 victory over Montana on Thursday. I expect another convincing win on Saturday. The Gators may have scored a minor upset against Nevada. However, they've still lost four of seven overall and they're still just 9-15-1 ATS their past 25, against when listed as underdogs. They won't be used to the type of defense; the Wolverines allow 54.5 ppg against non-conf. opponents.The Wolverines are a dominant 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 on a neutral court. They're also 14-7 ATS their last 20 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Perhaps its due to the blowout loss to Oregon, but the Huskies sure aren't getting much respect here. This is a team which won the Pac-12 regular season. The Huskies are also a team which hasn't lost two in a row this entire season, a perfect 7-0 when coming off a loss. While the Aggies are indeed on a roll and off b2b ATS wins, they're just 8-13 ATS the past 21 times that they'd covered the spread in two or more consecutive games. Utah State over-achieved this season. Though the Aggies do a lot of good things, they struggle at defending the perimeter and they also aren't very good at forcing turnovers. Those weaknesses haven't hurt them against weaker competition but I expect them to make the difference here. Expect the Huskies to score the upset in this one. 

I'm playing on Colgate/Tennessee UNDER the total. Colgate has been an underdog six times this season and five of those stayed below the total. Going back further finds the UNDER at 11-3 their last 14 in the underdog role (games with totals) and 23-8 the past 31. After getting blown out by Auburn last time out, the Vols are going to be highly motivated for a dominant defensive performance. Note that the UNDER is 17-9-1 the past 27 times that Tennessee was off a loss. That includes an 8-4 UNDER mark when that loss came against an SEC opponent in a game where the Vols were favored. During the same span, the UNDER is 7-4 after the Vols had allowed 75 or more points in b2b games. With the UNDER also 10-2-1 the past 13 times that the Vols were in a first round NCAA Tournament game, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). If you're looking for an upset, look elsewhere. This one's going to be a destruction. Off its loss to Tennessee, Kentucky is going to be all business here. The Cats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a conference loss by six or fewer points. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that Kentucky is also 9-5 ATS its last 14, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for Abilene Christian, they're 3-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Stats aside, the (Kentucky) Wildcats are bigger, stronger, faster and just plain better. Abilene coach Joe Golding had this to say: "We could play Kentucky, I don't know, man, 10,000 times, we might win once ... " Not tonight. Expect Kentucky to pull away for a decisive win. 

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Sun Devils won when these teams met at the Staples Center last season, during the Basketball Hall Of Fame Classic. However, that was a season when the Sun Devils got off to a 12-0 start. I really like the Red Storm in Wednesday's rematch. With five players averaging in double-figures in scoring, the Red Storm are built for tournament play. These teams had a pair of common opponents, Cal and Princeton. Both of them beat Cal. However, while the Red Storm easily handled Princeton, the Tigers came into Tempe and defeated the Sun Devils. St. John's Shamorie Ponds scored 19 in last season's game and he's even better now. Even with last season's result, the Sun Devils are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 against teams from the Big East. Expect the Red Storm to take this one. 

I'm playing Michigan/MSU UNDER the total. While both regular season meetings managed to finish above the total, I'm fully expecting defense to take center stage at the United Center, on Selection Sunday. Both teams were dominant defensively yesterday. The Spartans limited Wisconsin to just 57 points. The Wolverines were even better. They held Minnesota to a mere 49 points. Both teams are tired and banged-up but thats not going to affect their defensive intensity. It may, however, cause some shots to miss, that otherwise might have fallen. While these teams do indeed have a history of some recent high-scoring games, the last time that they met in the Big-Ten Conf. title game (almost exactly 4 years ago, at Indianapolis) the final score was 69-55. The Spartans, just as they are here, entered off a big win vs. Wisconsin. Both regular season meetings finished above the total that season, too. However, with the tourney on the line, defense ruled the day. Including that result, the last six times that these rivals met in March, the combined score was 126.8 points. Expect another low-scoring affair here. 

I'm playing on OLD DOMINION (10* GAME OF WEEK). One could make a case that the Hilltoppers have looked better in the tournament, thus far. They won both their games by double-digits. Meanwhile, the Monarchs won their two games by just three combined points. However, being involved in close games - and winning them - often serves teams well. I expect that to be the case here. ODU already won both regular season meetings, another pair of close victories. This is an ODU team which keeps grinding and finds a way to win. CUSA Player Of The Year BJ Stith had this to say: “We never give up. If there's time on the clock, we're still fighting." The Monarchs allow the fewest points in the conference. Expect their superior defense, "never say die" mentality and ability to win the close ones to prove the difference, as they punch their ticket to the Big Dance for the first time since 2011. 

I'm playing on Rhode Island / St. Bonaventure UNDER the total (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). St. Bonaventure, which held George Mason to just 57 points yesterday, has seen the UNDER go 4-1 in all neutral site games. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-6-1 their last 20 in that situation. The Bonnies have now held nine straight opponents to 60 or fewer points. Not surprisingly, they allow the second fewest points per game in the A-10. While the O/U line may initially seem low for a Rhode Island game, consider that the Rams have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the past four times, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During the same stretch, the UNDER is 3-0 when the Rams were off four consec. games where they scored 75 or more. Expect those stats to improve here, as the Bonnies slow the pace down and keep the final combined score below the total.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). The Huskies won both regular season meetings and I expect them to complete the sweep this evening. While they may have only won by three against USC yesterday, the Huskies did a lot of impressive things, including registering a season-high in both assists and 3-pointers. The close victory will serve them well here. While the shooters are getting hot at the right time, its the Washington defense which carried them to the Pac-12 reg. season title. Their 64 ppg allowed on defense ranks 26th in the nation. While both teams played yesterday, the Buffaloes also played the previous day. Though they won big last night, playing three games in three days will catch up with tonight. The Huskies have failed to cover five straight for the first time this season. They're 2-0 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons and 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that they were in that situation. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* BEST BET). I won with UNT yesterday and am coming right back with them. Here's an excerpt from yesterday's writeup, which I've included as it applies here: "...The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening." I like the fact that North Texas played yesterday while Western Kentucky hasn't played in a week. The last two meetings were close - WKU won by three this season and in OT last season. Once again, expect the Mean Green seniors to come through when it counts. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* VIOLATOR). The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on ND/GT OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Both this season's meetings had O/U lines in the 130s. The most recent produced 128 points but stayed below the total. We're working with a considerably lower number this afternoon, enough so that the same score would now finish above the total. In a game where I expect both teams to score and be competitive the entire way, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Irish have seen both their neutral court games finish above the total. They've also seen the OVER go 4-1 after allowing 60 or fewer points in their last game. Additionally, the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that they were off a road loss of three or fewer points. Back to the low O/U number: GT has seen the OVER go a lucrative 14-5 the past 19 times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 120s, 6-1 to the OVER in that situation this season. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* PERS FAV). Expected to be one of the better teams in the MAC, Ball State really underperformed this season. While the tournament offers a fresh start, its not always easy to just suddenly turn things around. Indeed, the Cardinals have dropped five of their last six overall and are a dismal 0-7 ATS their last seven. Coach James Whitford had this to say: "We've gone on a rally in a bad way. We can't seem to turn it around." The Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three and they swept the season series. James Thompson IV was unstoppable in the wins over Ball State. This is an EMU team which brought back most of its top players from last year and which is coming in with confidence. They say its difficult to beat a team three times. Expect it to happen here. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off b2b road losses, I expect the Buckeys to bounce back with a big performance here. They're 2-0 SU/ATS off a game where they scored 50 or less. Going back further finds them at 14-8 ATS in that situation. While the Badgers are indeed a strong defensive team, note that the Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS their last 13 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. With an O/U line in the low-mid 120's, its also worth mentioning that Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) the past 10 times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect AT LEAST a 'cover' for the highly motivated home side with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* CBB GOY). The Warriors won 79-68 when these teams met at Hawaii earlier this season. Playing at home, expect the Titans to exact some revenge Saturday evening. In the earlier meeting, Hawaii connected on 11 3-point shots while CS Fullerton made just four. That disparity isn't likely to happen again. The Warriors are playing their second straight on the road. Since the earlier meeting between these teams, this will mark the fourth time that Hawaii has played two consecutive road games. In all three previous cases, they lost (both SU and ATS) when playing their second straight on the road. Note that the Warriors are also 0-2 SU/ATS when off a conference road win. The Titans are playing much better than they were when these teams met earlier. They've won 10 of their last 13 and five of their last seven. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. It all adds up to "Payback Time" on Saturday night. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on Missouri State / Bradley OVER the total. These teams saw both January meetings stay below the number. However, we're working with a considerably lower total here.  In fact, this is the lowest total these teams have had against each other since 2016. In a game where both teams are likely to put up a decent number and be competitive the entire way, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.  Bradley gave up 81 points last time out while Missouri State allowed 73. Look for this one to be higher-scoring than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Jaguars won when these teams met at South Alabama back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Chanticleers to exact some revenge. Note that the Chanticleers are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 147, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as the Chanticleers are a profitable 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. After having dropped five of their previous six, both SU and ATS, the Chanticleers got back on track last time out, winning outright at LA Monroe. They're 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 off a SU victory. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evennig's game, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* BEST BET). The Gators won (in OT) at LSU in this season's earlier meeting. Playing their regular season home finale, I expect the Gators to complete the regular season sweep. While the Gators were upset last time out, they'd previously won five straight. While many will assume the Tigers are going to be the hungrier team, due to the fact that they're in a battle for first and playing with revenge, the Gators are also going to be extremely motivated. They absolutely want to close out the season strong and know they can potentially still improve by a few spots. Note that LSU is 0-6 SU/ATS the past six times that it attempted to avenge a loss in which is was favored. While the Gators have had trouble covering big numbers here, we don't have to worry about that here. They're 31-11 on this floor the past few seasons and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening.

I'm playing on BUTLER (10* VIOLATOR). The Musketeers won by a single point when these teams met at Xavier. Playing their regular season home finale and desperate to snap a 3-game slide, I expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and exact some revenge. Even off a road win at St. Johns, who the Musketeers will also face next, Xavier is a mediocre 17-16 SU on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same span, Butler is 38-10 at home. During that span, Butler has only dropped three straight conference games three times. In all three cases, the Bulldogs won their next game, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Expect them to once again stop the skid at three, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MONTANA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Lumberjacks are off b2b losses and have now dropped six of their last eight. Things don't get easier here. The Grizzlies won by 16 last time out. They're playing their regular season home finale this evening and are going to be motivated to deliver another blowout. The Grizzlies already won by 13 at Northern Arizona this season and they won by 18 here in last season's meeting. In fact, the won both of last season's meetings by 18. Note that the Lumberjacks are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times that they tried to avenge a home loss, where the opposing team scored 85 or more, 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss overall. Expect this one to be one-sided, the Grizzlies winning by 18+ once again. 

I'm playing on ASU/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Last season's game here had an O/U line of 149.5 and finished with 154 points. This season, we're working with a lower O/U line and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that ASU has seen the OVER go 13-3 the past 16 times it played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. That includes a PERFECT 5-0 'over' record when on the road, when the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. During the same span, the Beavers have seen the OVER go 3-0 when they were off an 'upset' loss in Pac-12 play, 13-4-1 when off a home loss overall. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on MURRAY STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I really like how this one sets up for the Racers. Going for their ninth straight conf. victory, the Racers have a ton of positive momentum. On the other hand, Austin Peay is off a deflating 2-point loss against Eastern Kentucky, they type of defeat that can take the wind out of a team's sails. Six of the Racers' last seven wins, including four straight, have been by double-digits. The Racers already won a close one at Austin Peay on Valentine's Day. The last meeting here saw them win by 21, an 84-63 rout. The previous season's game here was a 102-58 destruction. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* MAIN EVENT). LSU came through for me in last week's win against Tennessee. They'd follow it up by beating A&M by 11 points. However, now that they're on the road, I expect the Tigers to stumble. The Tide got back on track last weekend, snapping a 3-game skid with a win over Vanderbilt. They followed it up with a win and cover at South Carolina. Momentum back on their side, they understand what a huge and critical opportunity this is. A bubble team, a signature win in this game would do wonders for their tournament resume. LSU is an ugly 1-9-1 ATS its last 11, when off a double-digit conference win. 

I'm playing on BROWN (10* IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). I won with Columbia last Friday; the Lions won outright as big underdogs at Penn. They were forced to go to OT in that game though and they followed it up by getting blown out at Princeton the following day. Now 7-17, they're playing their third straight on the road and at a venue where they tend to struggle. Indeed, the Lions are just 1-7 ATS their last eight visits here. The Bears, 2nd highest scoring team in the Ivy League, are having a strong year and they're currently on a roll. Expect them to complete the season sweep this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I’m playing on Oregon (10* GAME OF MONTH). It’s “revenge” time for the Ducks. Arizona State posted the 78-64 home win over Oregon in the first meeting this year. Arizona State earned a 69-59 home win over a poor Cal team last time out, while the Ducks come in off a 90-83 road loss to UCLA. Not only do the Ducks play with revenge, but I think they come in as unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one after three straight losses, while ASU is complacent after three straight victories. The revenge angle works in this one. Lay the points, Ducks roll.

I'm playing on VILLANOVA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. The Golden Eagles currently have a 1.5 games lead over the Wildcats for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row and 12 of its last 13, but with a chance to close the gap, I think the hungry home side delivers the goods tonight. I think Villanova comes in razor focused here after a disastrous road trip which saw it lose all three games. But a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered as the Wildcats have won 13 straight there. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of Villanova (additionally note that the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS this season after failing to cover in their previous outing). This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Villanova rolls.

I’m playing on Butler (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. Both teams need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament bids alive. I think that the home floor advantage can’t be understated as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Friars have now fallen into last place in the ten-team East after a 76-58 home loss to Marquette on Saturday. Providence has now lost six of its last eight games, managing to post 70 points just once in that span. Butler is coming off a 76-69 loss to Marquette last Wednesday. But as mentioned above, a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Bulldogs to get back on track as they’ve won their last two home games and they’re 4-3 at home in conference action. Finally note that the home team is 6-0 ATS the last six in this series. Lay the points, Butler rolls. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Outright win? Probably not. But Florida State comes in still “hung up” on its 77-59 loss to UNC last time out, a setback which snapped an eight-game win streak. The Irish come in as the much more focused team here as they’ll look to try and score the upset and off three straight losses to Virginia, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. I’m not going to try and tell you that FSU is an over-rated team, or that Notre Dame is better than what its record is currently. Because that’s not the case. I just think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Irish. Notre Dame comes in under the radar here and the Seminoles also get caught looking ahead to NC State coming to town next. No outright victory, but I’m expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Irish roll.

I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Niagara comes in off a 97-81 loss to Rider and after dropping five of its last six, I think the Purple Eagles will have a difficult time here as well mustering much of an offensive attack. Saint Peters is moving in the opposite direction now, ending its losing streak with a 65-59 win over Marist as a 5.5 points underdog last time out. Niagara has been terrible in this spot as well, going 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of three points or less or pick. Saint Peters on the other hand has been fantastic in this spot, going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win as an underdog. I’m expecting home floor to be a difference/advantage as well. Lay the points, Peacocks roll.

I’m playing on UCLA (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Oregon was dumped 66-49 at USC last Thursday and I think the Ducks will struggle in this difficult road venue as well. UCLA rallied for a 68-67 home win over Oregon State last time out and I think it’ll build off that victory. This has been a difficult matchup for Oregon for a while and I believe that trend continues here (UCLA won the first meeting between the schools 87-84 in OT back on January 10th.) The Ducks have been great overall defensively this year (allowing 64.6 PPG), but their achilles heel has been their offense (only 69.5 PPG average. The Bruins are averaging 77.7 PPG and allowing 76.1.) I think Oregon struggles again to keep pace offensively this evening. Additionally note that the Bruins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Ducks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lay the points, UCLA rolls.

I’m playing on Monmouth (10* VIOLATOR). Canisius enters off a 70-65 loss at home to Manhattan as a six points favorite most recently. The Golden Griffins three-game win streak was snapped in that one and I think the team is poised for another letdown here as well. Canisius has a target on its back tonight as it still holds the No. 1 sot in the conference. But Monmouth enters as the “hungrier” team here. After winning five straight, Monmouth comes in desperate to break a two-game slide, most recently a 75-67 loss to Marist as a 3.5 points home favorite. The Golden Griffins have struggled in this spot for bettors by going 5-9 ATS in their last 14 after a loss by six points or less. Monmouth on the other hand is already 3-1 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is what’s in store. Lay the points, Monmouth rolls.

I’m playing on UCLA (10* VIOLATOR). Oregon State enters off a highly satisfying 72-57 home win over rival Oregon on Saturday, while UCLA comes in off a humbling 104-80 setback to Stanford in its most recent action. The Bruins play with the added incentive of “revenge” here after falling 79-66 at Oregon State last month. UCLA is the “hungrier” team here. Note that the Bruins have been much better at home as well, as they’ve averaged 85 points on their own floor over the last three games. The Bruins also enjoy a significant rebounding edge as well, averaging 41.5 boards per game compared to only 36.2 for the Beavers (despite losing the first game, UCLA did win the rebounding battle in that one.) UCLA is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 following a loss of 20 points or more, while Oregon State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. Lay the points, Bruins roll.

I’m playing on George Washington (10* BEST BET). Neither side instills much confidence. UMass is 9-16 and George Washington is 7-18. Both teams come in on horrible losing streaks. The Colonials have lost four straight, most recently to Duquesne, while the Minutemen are 2-11 in their last 13, suffering a heartbreaking OT loss to George Mason in their latest action. This has been a terrible matchup for UMass whenever its come to town though and I believe that trend carries over here. George Washington has won five straight in this series and it’s 22-9 all time at home vs. the Minutemen. UMass has lost eight straighten the road, averaging 62.8 points and conceding 70.6 in those contests. The Minutemen are also just 1-4 ATS in their last I’ve vs. teams with losing records. Add it all up, and I expect George Washington to find a way to get the job done. Play on the home side.

I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* BEST BET). Saint Peter’s closes out the regular season with two straight road games. Both will be tough and it’ll be the underdog in each. Including tonight vs. Siena. The Peacocks though won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping seven straight, most recently a 71-65 setback to Rider. The Peacocks have to be feeling confident here as well as they’d prevail 65-50 over the Saints at home in early January. Sienna is firmly in fifth spot (after being picked to finish 10th), but it comes in on terrible form, having dropped two straight at home. Saint Peters is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Siena is just 5-7 ATS at home and only 5-8 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Peacocks roll.

I’m playing on the over Idaho/Eastern Washington (10* BLUE CHIP). The lowly 4-20 Idaho Vandals won’t be lacking for motivation here after dropping their tenth straight game (75-47 to Northern Colorado.) The Vandals average 65.3 PPG, which isn’t great obviously. But Idaho has been much worse on the other end of the court by allowing 78.2 PPG. The Eastern Washington Eagles haven’t been much better at 9-15 overall this season, but they did just break a two-game slide with an 88-78 OT win over Northern Colorado on Saturday. Eastern Washington averages and concedes exactly 77.00 PPG this season. Note that Idaho has seen the total go over in all four games it’s played in this year as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Eastern Washington has seen the total go over in six of seven as a favorite this season. This number is a little low, play the over.

I’m playing on the under Arizona/Colorado (10* BLUE CHIP). Two teams currently on the bubble collide in this one and I think we have a defensive battle on our hands in this one. Arizona is in a “free fall” right now, sitting in tenth place in the Pac 12. Injuries have played a big part in the Wildcats slide. The good news for Arizona though is that it still only sits 2.5 games back of third place. The Wildcats have their work cut out for them to make a seventh straight Tournament, likely needing to sweep the rest of the regular season to earn contention. When these teams played in Arizona on January 3rd, Arizona managed the 64-56 home win and I’m expecting a similar hard-fought, lower-scoring battle here as well. The Buffs have won four straight and they’re also still eyeing a Tournament berth. Most recently Colorado held on for a 77-73 home win over Arizona State. Will Colorado get caught looking ahead to its game vs. Pac 12 leader Washington on the road next Saturday? It better not! Regardless note that Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 following a loss, while Colorado has seen the total go under in its last seven home games where the total is between 135 and 140.5. Play the under.

I’m playing on Washington State (10* REVENGE BEST OF BEST). UW destroyed WSU 85-67 in December, but that was then and this is now. The Cougars played without leading scorer Robert Franks in the first matchup this season, but he’s back in the line-up now (WSU lost all four games he missed in December.) Franks though comes in on top form and I think he’ll be an “X-factor” here as well in this revenge scenario. Ranks posted 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over ASU last week, before then going off for 31 points and eight boards in a victory over Arizona. WSU lost both games to the Huskies last year as well, but Franks was a bright spot by averaging 19 points and 10.5 boards. UW on the other hand has been dealing with a flu bug, which led to mixed results last week. The Huskies have turned the ball over 52 times in their last three games, including 17 in their most recent setback to ASU. This one has “upset” written all over it, but I’m still going to grab the points. Grab the points, WSU rolls.

I’m playing on Northern Kentucky (10* BEST BET). I like the 20-6 Northern Kentucky Norse to find a way to get the job done here vs. the 15-11 Wright Raiders on Friday night. UNK enters off a 79-64 home win over Oakland last time out, while Wright State also picked up a victory in its latest action, pulling away 83-60 over Detroit on Saturday. The Norse earned the tough 68-64 win in the first matchup between the schools at home back on January 11th and I expect a similar result here as well. This is an important game, as the Norse are in No. 1 in the Horizon League at 10-3, while Wright State is directly behind. But while the Raiders have been on a decent run over the last month, their numbers do match up well against the Norse. As we come down the stretch, I think UNK’s depth will prove to be the difference. Northern Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG an fit allows 67.3. Wright State averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 68.4. I like Northern Kentucky to continue its dominance in this series. Norse roll.

I’m playing on Idaho (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). After back-to-back wins and victories in five of its last six, I think that Northern Colorado stumbles here. Well, has enough of a letdown anyways for the hungry home side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bears most recently held on for a 65-59 win over Sacramento State. On the season the Bears average 77.3 PPG. The Vandals only average 68.8, but after losing nine in a row, we definitely don’t have to question Idaho’s focus this evening. This is way too many points to be giving up, as Idaho just took Northern Colorado to OT in a loss just last month. The Vandals play with revenge and they’re desperate for a victory of any sorts. Northern Colorado runs out of gas on Thursday and the home side keeps it much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Vandals roll.

I’m playing on UCF (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) Clearly this is a big game. UCF sits a half game ahead of USF in the AAC standings. In a contest like this, I think that the “home floor” advantage is going to be significant. USF almost got caught “looking ahead” to this one, as it needed OT to get past lowly ECU 72-68 at home last time out. The Bulls were sloppy, turning the ball over 20 times and I think they’re going to struggle in this difficult arena as well. UCF downed SMU 71-65 on the road in its latest action. The Knights have to be feeling supremely confident that they can keep the momentum rolling as well as they’ve covered four straight at home in this series. Lay the points, UCF rolls.

I’m playing on Boston College (10* SPECIAL) BC will be desperate to avoid another loss here and drop down in the cellar of the ACC. A date vs. the hapless Panthers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Pittsburgh comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. The Panthers weakness this year? Clearly it’s been their play on the road, as they enter having lost five straight conference road games. Pittsburgh has injury issues to deal with as well, as starting forward Malik Ellison is expected to be out for a second straight game with an injury. After a 67-57 loss to the Orange, BC looks to bounce back at home. The Eagles have responded well in this spot as well, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after two or more consecutive road losses. The Panthers on the other hand are a miserable 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog of six points or less or pick. Look for home floor to play a big role in the final outcome. Lay the points, Eagles roll.

I’m playing on Kansas (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, Kansas has issues. It’s playing through injuries and it’s lost four of its last seven, but it got back on track with a win at home over OKS on Saturday and I believe the storied program can carry that momentum over here vs. a complacent TCU side which has won straight over OKS and Iowa State. Here’s Kansas coach Bill Self on tonight’s game: “We did not have any [energy] in Manhattan (against Kansas State),” Self assessed. “We have to go down there (to TCU) with a purpose and a focus. People talk about running plays and all that. It doesn’t matter what you run as long as you have energy and passion. It’s contagious. I think we have some guys out there we can feed off of.”

TCU’s been playing a lot better of late, but you’d think that the way the team reacted after its first road win vs. a ranked team in 21 years last time out that they’d actually won the National Championship. After that emotional win, I think an immediate letdown is imminent here. 

Clearly the outright isn’t out of the question, but in a game which I foresee coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

I’m playing on East Carolina (10* BEST BET) Would anyone fault the Bulls for looking past their lowly opponent today? While I’m stopping short in calling for the outright, I do think that the Bulls, who enter having won four straight, will come into this one a bit complacent. The Pirates won’t be lacking for motivation today that’s for sure as they’ve lost two in a row and 13 of their first 22. Not surprisingly the Pirates play with revenge here after falling 77-57 at home earlier in the year. But with a game at UCF up next for USF, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the standings, I think the home side not only comes out complacent, but it also gets caught looking ahead. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the visitors today. Grab the points, ECU rolls.

I’m playing on Michigan State (10* MAIN EVENT). Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I’m expecting the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. After starting the Big 10 season at 9-0, the Spartans are now 9-3 after a shocking setback to Illinois earlier in the week. Despite the losing streak though, MSU remains one of the top teams in the nation on paper and I simply have a hard time seeing the Golden Gophers keeping pace. The Spartans average 119.6 points per 100 possessions and they allow only 98.6 points per 100 possessions. The Gophers come in having dropped two straight themselves. Minnesota averages 110.2 points per 100 possessions and it allows 97.5. MSU has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 (the Gophers on the other hand are still only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 on the road!) Lay the the points, Spartans roll.

I’m playing on St. Joseph’s (10* BEST BET) This is a revenge game for the Hawks after they feel 68-57 on the road in the first matchup this season. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 73-60 home win over Dayton, while St. Joe’s comes in hungry after its 89-63 loss to La Salle on the road. The Hawks are 0-5 on the road in league play, but there was a silver lining behind their latest loss as they’d go on to hit a season-high 14 threes. The Hawks are out for revenge and they’re desperate for a victory. Note as well that Saint Louis is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and only 5-11 ATS when playing the role of favorite, while St. Joe’s is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of six points or less or pick. I think a little “home cooking” is just what St. Joe’s needs here in this situation. Grab the points.

I’m playing on Troy (10* PERS FAV) Arkansas Little Rock is in last place in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas Little Rock did beat Troy and Alabama earlier in the season, but it comes in having lost five straight. The Trojans come in having lost three straight (all on the road), but they’ll be eager for revenge and to bounce back in familiar surroundings. The Trojans struggled defensively in their latest setback to South Alabama, but they were very efficient offensively, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor and 52.6 percent from range. Facing putrid Arkansas Little Rock, I like the Trojans to carry that offensive momentum over here as well (Little Rock averages 74.8 PPG and Troy averages 77.0). I think Arkansas Little Rock’s road issues continue. Lay the points, Troy rolls.

I’m playing on Baylor (10* MAIN EVENT) I like the 15-6 Baylor Bears to score the slight upset on the road (that said, I’m still grabbing the points!) Baylor is 6-2 in the Big 12 and it comes in on top form. The Bears have won six straight overall and six straight in this series. The Longhorns on the other hand have lost three of four, including most recently at Iowa State 65-60 on Saturday. Baylor’s rolling, but it’s still not ranked. The Bears smashed TCU 90-65 at home most recently and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. The Longhorns are only 4-5 in league play and they’re only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at home. Baylor on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. the conference and 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. Grab the points, Baylor rolls.

I’m playing on Western Michigan (10* VIOLATOR) I think the “hungrier” home side keeps this one close late. WMU is 6-15 overall and it’s going to be eager to snap an eight-game slide. Would anyone fault the 15-6 Bowling Green Falcons for coming in a tiny bit complacent here? They’re 11-1 in their last 12 and they enter off their biggest win of the campaign at home over Buffalo last Friday. It is considered by most as being the programs biggest victory in over a decade. This is a revenge game as well for the Broncos after they were whipped 79-48 at the Stroh Center on January 19th. WMU is desperate for a league victory and I think the conditions are finally right for that scenario to happen. That said, in a game which I envision coming down to the final moments, let’s grab the points.

10* play on Siena (10* PERS FAV) I think Fairfield stumbles on the road here. The Stags have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games, including holding on for a 57-52 victory over Marist in their most recent. Fairfield averages 69.4 PPG, while Siena averages 63.2. The Saints though make it up on the other end of the court and they enter on top form having won five of their last seven. The Saints have had the Stags “number” in this matchup of late, going 4-1 ATS the last five in the series. The Stags are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I think home floor is big for Siena as I look for the Saints to continue their dominance in this match-up. Lay the points, Siena rolls.

10* PERS FAV on Connecticut. I’m expecting a decisive victory today for the 12-9 UConn Huskies over the 9-12 ECU Pirates. The Pirates have yet to win on the road in conference action and I think they’ll have a difficult time again here. Since joining the ACC, East Carolina hasn’t won more than six league games and it’s 7-33 on the road in conference play overall. And after holding on for 66-65 win over Tulane on Thursday, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion (note the Pirates are 0-7 on the road this year, shooting a putrid 18.9 percent from range and 37.3 percent overall, while also getting outscored by 18.5 points in the process!) UConn is 6-1 in this matchup. The Huskies are 11-2 at home, averaging 82.2 PPG and outscoring their opposition by 16.0 PPG in those contests. This one screams blowout. Lay the point, because UConn rolls.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on North Texas. I think this spread could/should be a lot larger. UNT is 18-4, but it won’t be taking anything for granted here as it looks to move back on top of the conference. The Mean Green most recently fell 72-61 to ODU this past Thursday to drop to second in the standings. A game vs. lowly Charlotte is just what the doctor ordered to snap the slide. The 49ers are terrible, 5-16 overall and just 2-8 in Conference play, including a 65-61 loss to Rice last time out. UNT though has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 62 points or less in a conference loss in its previous outing. I’m laying the points and expect the Mean Green to roll!

I’m playing on DAVIDSON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) After three straight wins, I look fro Davidson to continue that progression and to find a way to get the job done vs. the Bonnies, who have two in a row. Davidson is 15-5 overall and 6-1 in A-10 action, most recently holding on for a 54-53 win at Saint Louis. Last season Davidson outlasted St. Bonaventure in a thrilling triple OT contest, but I’m expecting a much more decisive victory tonight. The Bonnies feature plenty of talent, but they still feature three freshman in the starting lineup, making it the only team in the conference to have that many. St. Bonaventure is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. Look for Davidson’s depth and experience to prove to be too much for the Bonnies once again.

I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off an upset win at Nebraska, losing streak now in the rear view mirror, I expect the Buckeyes to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Note that they're a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit upset (SU win as an underdog) win. During the same span, they're 4-0 ATS, after having dropped five of their previous six games. The Wolverines are tough but not unbeatable. They were laying -12.5 points for their last home game and won by only two. Expect them to have their hands full, once again. Grab the points.

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Needless to say, Duke has some impressive players. That said, I feel that the Blue Devils are laying too many points here. Duke's last five games have been decided by an average of seven points, none of those by more than 15. The Irish, 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s, got blown out by Virginia last time out. That was their first loss by more than 15 all season though and they're going to be highly motivated to avoid a repeat performance. It hasn't happened often over the years but, if we go back we find that the Irish are 2-0 ATS when off a home loss of 20 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats with their best effort this evening. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). The Seminoles have shown no reason to believe that they can cover as road favorites. In fact, they're 0-10-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were road favorites, or pick'em. Thats ugly. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or less, five of those resulting in outright losses. The Hurricanes hung tough at Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago, losing by six as 10-point underdogs. They're 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were off b2b conference losses, 2-0 ATS this season. Expect them to bounce back with a big effort en route to AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The SEC is deep and full of talented teams. These two are among them. Auburn has beaten the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons. While this season's Tigers are another solid team, I expect an experienced MSU team, playing on its home floor, to rise to the occasion and get some payback. Auburn is mediocre on the road. The Bulldogs are 10-1 on this floor, 29-5 the past few seasons. They brought more back from last year than did Auburn and I expect that to be evident here. Homecourt proves the difference. 

I'm playing on Marquette/Xavier OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Musketeers has real trouble scoring when these teams met at Marquette. Playing on their home floor, they're going to have considerably more offensive success. Stopping Marquette is an entirely different matter. The Golden Eagles can and do score anywhere. The OVER is 17-7 their last 24 on the road, 3-1 this season. This season's road games have averaged 164.5 combined points, each producing a minimum of 145. Last season's game produced 159 points. However, it had an O/U line of 164.5. We're working with a much lower number here and I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Norse won both meetings last year. For the game here, they were laying -16.5 points. This season, with the line having come from its opener adding to the value, we're getting them at a considerably lower number. The Norse are undefeated at home this season and they're coming in hot. This season's 11-0 record brings them to 35-4 on this floor the past 2+ years. The Norse are going to be put up a big number tonight. They've scored 73 or more in six or their last seven, 91 and 82 their last two games. Note that they're 9-3-1 ATS (10-3 SU) the past 13 times that they were off b2b games where they scored 80 or more. The Phoenix have allowed 76 or more points in 10 straight games, 80 or more in all but one of those. For the season, they allow an obscene 87.6 ppg on the road. The defensively-challenged Phoenix have played two road games in 2019. Both resulted in double-digit losses. Expect more of the same here. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Winless in 2019, the Buckeyes badly need this one. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it. Note that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were listed as home underdogs, or pick'em. Lets not forget that they're 37-11 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. As of this writing, most books have the O/U line at 140.5. I mention that as Purdue is just 6-16 ATS (5-17 SU!) the past 22 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, 1-4 ATS their last five in that situation. Last season's games were both decided by a single point, each time winning once. Over recent years, the Buckeyes have dominated the Boilermakers though, particularly here in Columbus. This one may well come down to the wire, too. In the end, look for the Buckeyes to be the team which emerges victorious. 

'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* VIOLATOR). Bowling Green comes in on an impressive winning streak. However, I believe that Eastern Michigan opened as the favorite for good reason and I expect the Falcons' run to come to an end here. After losing a pair of OT games against the Falcons last season, the Eagles have had this one circled. This is an experienced team which brought back most of last year's players; they haven't forgotten. Keep in mind that many picked the Eagles to finish near the top of the MAC West and the Falcons to finish in, or near, the basement of the East. The Eagles won their last game on this floor by a score of 95-61. Expect another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on VT (10* BEST BET). While the Hokies came up short against Virginia, tonight represents another opportunity for a marquee ACC victory. I expect them to make the most of it. Coach Buzz William had this to say: "In a demented way, when you get your brain beat in, it kind of re-centers you or calibrates you. And then to have a chance to go right back and do it again ... " The Heels are going to want to play at a face pace and thats going to open up plenty of looks for Tech's dangerous outside shooters. The Hokies already bounced back from the Virginia loss by beating up on Wake Forest Saturday. They've been money (10-1 ATS the L11!) when playing with one or less day's rest and I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Sooners may currently have the higher national ranking but I believe that the Longhorns are favored for good reason. The Sooners, who lost by seven at Texas Tech last time on the road, are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Going back further finds them at 15-23-1 ATS their last 39 in that role. Last time out, the Sooners were upset by K-State. They're 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off an upset loss in Big 12 play, 0-3 ATS their last three when off a double-digit loss as a favorite. Off three straight close losses, look for Longhorns to finally break through for a victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ASU (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight times that these teams have faced each other and I expect those stats to improve here. Indeed, this is a case of the Beavers being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Sun Devils just got upset by the Cardinal, at Stanford, in their last game. Prior to that, they'd won b2b games by double-digits. The last time that they were off a loss, the Sun Devils responded with a 22-point win over Colorado. Including that result, ASU is 7-2 ATS the past nine times it was off a double-digit Pac-12 loss. Over the years, the Beavers are just 12-20 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Lay the points and expect a relatively decisive win for the home team. 

I'm playing on LA SALLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won and covered seven straight when these teams have faced each other. In six of those seven cases, including each of the past five, the home team has won by double-digits. Going back further finds the favorite at 20-6 ATS the past 26 times that these teams have gotten together. I expect homecourt to again prove the different. The Colonials are off b2b losses, most recently losing by 20 against Richmond. The Explorers are stepping down in class here, after three straight against more difficult opponents, games where they were underdogs. They played well in those games. Now, they're back in the role of favorites, a role which has seen them go 2-1 ATS. While they've covered a few this season, the Colonials are still just 9-19 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. The ugly home loss against Richmond exposed some issues. It was already going to be a long year, the loss of Arnoldo Toro in December figures to make it a lot worse. Expect another double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gators got outscored by a 34-12 margin in terms of "points-in-the-paint," in Saturday's double-digit loss against Tennessee. The Gators' lack of dominant post players is going to hurt them again tonight, as they figure to have to have no answer for 6-11 Holman. The Gators always seem like an attractive underdog, given their program's history. However, they're just 3-11 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they were off b2b SEC losses. Taking advantage of their superior inside game, expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). The Panthers have been far better at the betting window this season than the Seminoles. Pittsburgh checks in with an 11-4 ATS record. FSU is just 6-10 ATS. I like how this one sets up for the Panthers. The Noles are off a great game against Duke and deserve a ton of credit for their effort. Unfortunately, despite leaving it all on the floor and having a chance to win, they ultimately came up a bucket short. That's going to take a toll on them here. Note that FSU is just 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and that includes an 0-8 ATS record as road favorites, or when in a pick'em spot. The Noles were favored by -6.5 or -7 points the last time that they visited here, coming here with a top-20 ranking. Yet, the Panthers won by double-digits. Catching their guests off the heartbreaker vs. Duke, don't be surprised when the Panthers deliver another upset tonight. 

I'm playing on Purdue/Wisconsin OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). While these teams have historically played some low-scoring games against each other, I believe that this line will prove to be too low. This is a game where I expect both teams to keep scoring the entire way. Both really want this one and neither is going to go away. The Boilermakers aren't playing much defense of late. They allowed 77 last game and 70 before that. They've allowed 60 or more in nine straight games, 67 or more in seven of those. They allow an average of 75.4 ppg on the road. The Boilermakers can still score though, averaging a fairly healthy 77.6 ppg on the season. Thats more than the 74.5 ppg which the Badgers average. However, it should be noted that Wisconsin averages a much higher 80.9 ppg at home. With the Boilermakers at just 2-6 ATS their past eight, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past few seasons, when Purdue had failled to cover in six, or seven, of its previous eight games. With the OVER also at 7-2 the last nine times that the Badgers were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY (10* BEST BET). The home team won both meetings last season; the home team is now 11-5 ATS the last 16 in the series. I expect homecourt to again prove the difference. While Hofstra checks in on an extended winning streak and with the much better record overall, thats partly due to William & Mary having played a more difficult schedule. Since hitting conference play, the Tribe have picked up their game. The Tribe's Justin Pierce missed last game and is currently questionable, as of this writing. He's an important player and William & Mary is hopeful to have him available. Even without him, Nathan Knight gives them an average of 24 points and 12 boards per game, while adding an average of five assists and a couple of steals. Matt Milon adds 19 points and seven boards per game while Chase Audige chips in another 13/5. In other words, this team still has plenty of weapons. William & Mary is 4-1 ATS its past five as a home underdog or pick'em. This is a huge game for them and I expect AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on UC RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). The road team had success in this series last season but I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. Riverside opened as -2 point favorite but by morning the line had come down a bit, providing us with some additional value on the Highlanders. I believe that they're catching the Matadors, who are off b2b hard fought and demoralizing losses, at the right time. Two games ago, the (+14.5) Matadors had a 19-point lead, at San Diego State, with 15 minutes to play. Yet, they allowed the Aztecs to come back and beat them. Next game, the (+7.5 or +8) Matadors lost in OT, against Yale. That's two games in a row, where they had a real chance to score an upset, only to come up short. Those type of losses take a toll and I expect them to catch up with the Matadors tonight. Note that the Matadors are now 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) the last 15 times that they were off a SU loss where they covered. The Highlanders, on the other hand, come in full of confidence, as they're off a 112-47 "feel-good" blowout win to start the year. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game, en route to the win and cover. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While I like the Hurricanes' chances of winning this one outright, in what could be a close one,  I'm happy to grab the points. After going through a tough stretch, the Canes are playing better. Though they haven't been covering, they enter this game off of three straight confidence-building victories. The Wolfpack are just 19-31 ATS the past 50 times that they were listed as road favorites or pick'em, 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. They've only played one true road game this season and that resulted in a loss. They're just 6-14 SU their last 20 on the road. Both last season's meetings were close, Miami winning each by five points. Factoring in those results, the underdog is 10-3-2 ATS the past 15 meetings in this series. Expect at least another cover for the underdog this evening.

I'm playing on Cal State Fullteron / Washington OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). The Huskies have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Those results have helped in providing us with a low number for tonight's game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When these teams met last, the O/U number was a much higher 164. Even that wasn't nearly high enough, as Washington won by a 104-88 score. The Titans put up 79 points last time out. In their last road game, they allowed 86. On the season, five of their six road games have finished above the number. Overall, the OVER is 5-2-2 the Titans' last nine games. Seven of those nine produced a minimum of 143 combined points. Expect this one to finish with at least that many, once again. 

I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON (10* MONEY LINE VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start for the Eagles but they're favored here for good reason. The Bengals will be playing their fifth straight away from home and it figures to catch up with them here. The Eagles have played a brutal schedule, one which included the likes of Syracuse, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, San Francisco and South Dakota State. They also faced those teams without Mason Peatling, their top inside threat, while dealing with several other injuries. Peatling and co. are back now though and the tough non-conf. slate will serve them well here. The Eagles were favored by 13 when they hosted the Bengals last season, winning by 11. Expect them to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on UC DAVIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). If you just looked at the records, you'd think that the Aggies (3-8 and 0-5 on the road) would have no chance. However, a closer look shows that Cal Davis has played road games at venues like Arizona, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas while hosting the likes of San Francisco. In other words, its been a challenging schedule and the sub-500 record isn't surprising. Those tough road games will work in their favor though; they very nearly won at Arizona (2-point loss) last time out and won't be intimidated here. While the Lions are a solid team, they did lose by seven at UC Riverside last time out. Only one of their last five games has resulted in a win of greater than 10 points; prior to the loss last time out, they'd won their previous game by a single point. While the Lions are 2-6 ATS their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Aggies are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs, in the same range, during the same span. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the Aggies take this down to the wire and score the upset. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Calls for Steve Alford's firing are growing louder. A blowout loss this afternoon may seal his fate. Though its still December, a loss here is going to really hurt the Bruins' chances of making the NCAA Tournament - as they're unlikely going to be able to pick up enough quality wins after this one. This is still a very talented team though, one absolutely capable of competing with the Buckeyes and beating them. Aware of the situation, I expect them to rise to the occasion and to bring their best game. While I respect the Buckeyes, lets also not forget that they're just 3-7 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court, 11-21 ATS in non-conference play, during that same span. The previous time that the Bruins were off b2b losses, they responded with a 19-point win. Including that result, they're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they'd lost two of their previous three. Look for them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). The Norse already beat NIU (in OT) on the road. While the Huskies would love to avenge that loss, its not happening. Not here. The Huskies are 7-24 SU in road lined games the past few seasons while the Norse are 25-3 SU in home lined games. The Huskies won big against lowly Western Illinois last time out. However, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 27-point road loss. Also, they're just 5-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. After having dropped b2b road games, Northern Kentucky got back on track last time, winning by six against Miami Ohio, another MAC opponent. Note that the Norse are 8-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped two of their previous three games. Expect the Norse to continue their strong play at home, covering the reasonably small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MONTANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admitedly, the Grizzlies have had their struggles on the road. However, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here. The Wildcats are off b2b SU losses and are 0-2-1 ATS their last three. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies returned four starters - and six of their seven top scorers - from last year's NCAA Tournament team. While that team would eventually lose to Michigan, they hung with the Wolverines for the first half. An experienced team with senior leadership, they're not going to be intimidated here. Indeed, I believe this team is better than its shown. While Montana returned the majority of its starting roster, Arizona lost all five of last season's starters. Expect those personnel losses to continue to haunt the Wildcats here, the Grizzlies rising to the occasion, their best effort leading to at least the cover. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE (10* BEAST). Expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. Playing at Minnesota, the Red Wolves dug themselves a big hole (21-2) out of the gate last time out. They didn't quit though and even rallied for the cover, losing 72-56 as a 20.5 point underdog. They won their last game here by double-digits, a pick'em game vs. Evansville. In fact, they've only played two games here and are 2-0. While the 56 points was a season low, its worth noting that the Wolves are a perfect 7-0 ATS the past couple of years, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. The Owls lone road game this month resulted in a loss at Bethune-Cookman. Arkansas State won a close one at FAU last season, as 6.5 point underdog. Playing at home, expect the Wolves to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on SF. The Dons are rolling. Off their big win against Cal, expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game against an outclassed Eagles team. 

I'm playing on SIU (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is a regional rivalry and its an important game for both teams. While the Racers are playing well, I expect homecourt and a stingy Southern Illinois defense to ultimately prove the difference. Murray State won by eight, as a 5-point favorite, at home, last season. However, SIU won by four, as a -2.5 point favorite, in the last meeting here. While the Racers may be 5-0 ATS through six games, they're just 1-1 SU in true road games and they're also only 2-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, after covering the spread in four or five of their previous six games. The Salukis have thrived as small home favorites in recent seasons and come in confident; they're off five straight wins, the last three of which they were favored for. They're 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having been favored in three straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* MASTERPIECE). In my opinion, the gap between these teams isn't nearly as big as the pointspread suggests. The Titans brought back most of their depth and four starters from a team which made the NCAA Tournament last season. While the Titans' admittedly record isn't very good, they've had a number of close losses, a couple coming in OT. Only one of their losses by more than 10 points. While the Gaels have won a few in a row, they'd previously lost four straight. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ELON (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Spartans are a solid team. Last time out, they even gave Kentucky all it could handle. For awhile, at least. Midway through the second half, the Spartans even led the Wildcats. Kentucky closed things out on a big run though; the 78-61 final snapping UNC Greensboro's 6-game winning streak. While they've had a few days off, I expect that loss to take a toll. While the Phoenix have not gotten off to a good start, I believe that they're a little better than they've shown and that the early results have helped in providing us with an extra generous number. The Phoenix love to hit from downtown and they're pretty good at doing so. They're 14-6 ATS over the years, after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Aggies have admittedly been playing well, the Cougars have dominated them in recent seasons. Just in the 'Nick' of time, the Cougars get Emery back from a 9-game suspension. He'll provide a much-needed spark to the offense. Keep in mind that the junior has made 172 three-pointers, on 38% shooting, over the course of his career. Its not too late for the Cougars, who had high hopes coming in, to salvage their season. Expect them to rise to the occasion with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* BEST BET). The Knights upset the Tide last season, winning by three points (65-62) at Alabama. The Tide, who were favored by -9.5 points for that game, haven't forgotten and are coming in ready to play. Though they haven't been covering, this is a confident team which has won three straight and five of six. Like last year's game, expect this one to come right down to the wire, the visiting underdog again coming away with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* GAME OF MONTH). I've only played on the Wildcats once this season. They came through for me in that 11/14 game, the only game that they've covered this season, easily disposing of North Dakota by a 38-point margin. They're laying a similar number here as they were for that one and I'm again expecting another lopsided win and cover. Monmouth is an ugly 0-7 on the season. Even teams like CS-Fullerton and Lehigh were able to beat them by 24. Monmouth wasn't on the road for either of those either. Needless to say, Kentucky is a far stronger opponent. While the ATS wins haven't been there, the Cats have now won five straight by double-digits. Expect them to pull away and win this one by more than 30. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN (10* FULLCOURT PRESS). Both these teams have played well thus far, both have been money at the betting window. That said, playing at home, I expect the Eagles to have the advantage. The Buccaneers are perfect at home but only 1-2 on the road. The Eagles just beat a trio of respectable tams (FAU, Pepperdine and Montana) on a neutral court and they won their two home games by an average score of 118.5 to 70. While they did start out with a 'cupcake,' the last four wins have been legit. Last season, playing at home, the Bucs hammered the Eagles. Senior guard Tookie Brown and co. haven't forgotten. Tonight, they get some payback. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE (10*). While neither of these are "big name" teams, I believe that the Vikings are offering us excellent value as underdogs. The Mastadons are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road, allowing an average of 98 points. They're now 8-23 ATS their last 31 road lined games. Though wins have been hard to come by, I like the direction Dennis Felton has the Vikings going. Though I like their chances of an outright upset, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons are playing with a ton of confidence. Sure, the competition has been weak. However, this team can improve to 5-0 under Kyle Smith for the first time. They've won all their games by a minimum of 32 points and their +35.8 point average margin of victory ranks fourth in the country. A +21.3 edge in rebounds ranks second in the country. While its true that Harvard has been strong at the betting window in recent seasons and also true that the team brought back nearly all its pieces from last season, the Crimson will be playing their third straight on the road. A 2-point loss at Rhode Island last time out figures to take a toll. So does the absence of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns. Those are two huge losses for this team. Expect the Dons to keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* PERS FAV). The Owls and Rams will be facing each other at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. I expect the Owls to have the advantage. Over the years, we've gotten used to the Rams consistently being a very strong squad. Indeed, prior to last season, the Rams had won a minimum of 24 games in 11 consecutive seasons. Last season, they got a new coach and fell to just 17-14. Top players Tillman and Williams prevented them from stumbling even further. However, they too have now moved on. That means that the Rams are going to have trouble with teams like Temple. Unlike the Rams, the Owls brought back most of their pieces from last season's team. Expect their experience and depth to prove the difference Monday night. 

I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens have won all three of their games and come in confident. On the other hand, the Pirates may have lost a little of their swagger; they were hammered by 23 points, at Nebraska, last time out. The Pirates have lost a lot: Desi Rodriguez (17.8 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (15.6 ppg and 4.4 apg), and all-time rebounding leader Angel Delgado (13.6 ppg and 11.8 rpg). Expect them to have their hands full.