Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on IOWA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams will be playing at MSG. While thats technically a neutral court, I expect it to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played here before, as the Big Ten Tourney was played here last season. (The Hawkeyes beat Illinois and lost to Michigan, the eventual champ, in OT.) Oregon, on the other hand, hasn't played here in more than a decade. While the Ducks are indeed very talented, they're also relatively young. This game is going to be a big deal to them and I expect there to be some nervousness. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as this play is posted, note that the Ducks are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Don't expect them to improve on those stats tonight.

I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Wildcats opened as the biggest favorite on the Wednesday board. However, I think that line could have easily been even higher, as I'm expecting an absolute destruction. As you probably saw or heard, the Cats got embarrassed by Duke on opening night. Off that 118-84 blowout loss, the worst since before Calipari came here, they came out a little flat out of the gate for their next game and found themselves trailing 44-37 against Southern Illinois. Kentucky woke up though and won 71-59. That wasn't quite enough for the cover but it absolutely provides them with positive momentum. Calipari had this to say: "I just said, be happy we won and figure it out. I've got a pretty good idea of how I'm going to do this now, and I'm just glad that we really got smashed, so there's no question. If you demand a lot, you get a lot. If you accept mediocrity, you're going to get it every time. ... I was very aggressive today." Stepping down in class, expect Calipari to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way Wednesday, en route to a 30+ point blowout win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Longhorns are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS thus far. Off a hard fought win over Arkansas, tonight's opponent provides the perfect opportunity for a "feel good" blowout win. Texas won 80-59 when these teams last met and the gap figures to be even larger this time. LA Monroe's games against Jackson State and Millsaps College won't have prepared them for the type of athleticism and intensity that they're going to see tonight. This one gets ugly. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). When these teams met at Toledo last season, the line was basically a pick'em. (Toledo closed as a 1-point favorite and won 87-74.) Oakland played that game without one of its top players, Jaylen Hayes, who was out with suspension. Hayes has moved on, as have Nunn and Walker. All three averaged 17 or more points last season. So, those are indeed some big shoes to fill. That said, this is a well-coached team and the cupboard isn't nearly as bare as many seem to feel. The Golden Griffins come in with some confidence, winning their first game by a 99-44 margin. Sure, the opponent (Kalamazoo) was a joke but the fact that they've got that big win under their belt will benefit them. While the Rockets should have another good season and do return a number of key players, the loss of Fletcher (18.1 ppg, 8 rbg) is significant. (He had 20/8 in last year's game.) Last year's game was closer than the final score indicated, the Grizzlies trimming the gap twice in the second half. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the Grizzlies to give them all they can handle here. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* BEST BET). Fran Dunphy succeeded John Chaney as Temple head coach in 2006. In 12 seasons with the Owls, he's got a 247-152 record. Today's game figures to have extra special meaning to Dunphy, for a few reasons. Its his final year as head coach, he'll step aside after this game. So, this will be the last time that he plays a season opener. Additionally, its the last time that he'll face La Salle, unless the teams end up meeting in tournament play. Thats noteworthy as Dunphy graduated from La Salle. Over the years, he's gone 28-8 against his alma mater, 15-4 as a coach of the Owls. Expect him to have his team ready, the players recognizing the significance of the game to their coach and pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Villanova/Michigan to finish UNDER the total. While the Wildcats have an excellent offense, they're also more than capable defensively. Here, they'll face an extremely stingy Michigan team which has now seen the UNDER go 8-2 its last 10 in this tournament. Villanova has seen four its last five tournament championship games fall below the total. The Wildcats have also seen the UNDER go 14-7 the past 21 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for those stats to improve here, the final combined score again proving lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Villanova/Kansas UNDER the total (10* TOTAL MAIN EVENT). While I respect both offenses, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. Due to their skill on offense, people often forget that Villanova also allowed fewer points per game than any other team in the Big East. The Wildcats have held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 60 points. Going back a little further reveals that they've held six of their last seven opponents to 70 or less. Kansas was an underdog in its game against Duke but managed to score the upset. While Duke did score 81 points, nine of those came in OT. If that game didn't go to OT, the final combined score would have fallen well short of the total. Even with that game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a healthy 8-3 the last 11 times that the Jayhawks were listed as underdogs. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 46-20, excluding pushes, the last 66 times that Kansas was listed as an underdog. When these teams met in March a couple of years ago, the O/U line was in the mid 140s. Yet, the teams combined for just 123 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 

I'm playing on UTAH (10* BEST BET). After failing to qualify for the 'Big Dance,' t would have been easy for either of these teams to pack it in. Neither have done so. Each has put together an impressive run to get here. I believe that that the Utes bring a little more to the table though. Off a victory over St. Mary's last game, note that Utah was only the second team (Gonzaga also did so) to defeat the Gaels on their home floor this season. The Hilltoppers have been all over the place this season. Costa Rica, Bahamas and last week in LA, prior to their visit to Stillwater. While they've had plenty of time off, I believe that all the travel will finally take a toll. Expect the Utes, last team left standing from the Pac-12, to finish on top.

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Wildcats are a very strong team. However,  I believe the same can be said of the Red Raiders. Nova did pull away late for a double-digit win against WVU. However, the Mountaineers gave them all they could handle almost the entire way. Keep in mind that this may be the Raiders' best team. They've beaten Kansas this season and they're going to come in confident that they can win this game. Expect the Raiders to improve to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they played with one day's rest, or less, in between games. 

I'm playing on Florida State/Michigan to finish OVER the total (10* TOURNEY TOTAL OF YEAR). While the Wolverines may not reach 99 again, as they did against Texas A&M, they should still have plenty of offensive success. Prior to their dominating defense effort against Gonzaga, the Noles had allowed 70 or more points in eight of their previous nine. Note that FSU has seen the OVER go 10-3 the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in its previous game. Meanwhile, Michigan has now scored more than 70 in 10 of its last 12. The Noles should also have plenty of offensive success. They''ve scored 74 or more in seven of their last nine, topping the 80 mark in three of those. With an O/U line in the 140s, note that the OVER is 6-3 when Michigan played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that FSU has seen the OVER go 9-4 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. With both teams topping the 70 mark, expect that combined 15-7 'over' mark to improve Saturday night. 

I'm playing on DUKE (10* SWEET 16 GOY) The Orange deserve a lot of credit for beating a good Michigan State team. Upsetting TCU was also impressive. In both cases, they were able to slow down the tempo and play excellent defense against an opponent which was unfamiliar with their style. This time, however, they face a team which knows how to beat them. The Blue Devils already hammered the Orange by 16 points a month ago. Including that loss, each of Syracuse's last three losses all came by 'double-digits,' each by a minimum of 15. While the Orange are obviously an extremely stingy team, the Blue Devils' advantage on the offensive side of the ball is much bigger. The Blue Devils are playing at a very high level right now; their last six victories have all been by double-digits. They've come by an average of 19.5 points

I'm playing on K-STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Kentucky comes in on a roll. Always well coached and with always loaded with excellent athletes, Kentucky has to feel fortunate with the way things are working out. I fully expect them to receive a very tough test here though. Note that prior to blowing out Buffalo, which had been "trash-talking," Kentucky's previous three victories had all come by five or fewer points. I've stated several times that I felt the Big 12 was the strongest conference, "from top to bottom," this season. While they may have gotten a fortunate matchup with UMBC, with four teams from the Big 12 in the Sweet 16, its clear that the (K-State) Wildcats are "battle-tested" from conference play. KSU has been playing without its top player, Dean Wade. However, as of Monday morning, Wade stated the following: "I am like 98 percent sure I will play. I don't know if they can keep me out of this one. This is big time. I'm excited. It gives me another couple of days to heal. I am starting to feel a lot better. My day-by-day gets a lot better. This gives me a few more days to heal and recover." Its true that Kentucky has historically dominated K-State. However, Weber has been here before. His team has a score to settle and he's looking to prove his critics wrong. I expect Weber to have his team ready and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on WVU (10* 2ND RND GAME OF YEAR). The Mountaineers get a very favorable matchup here. I expect this well-coached team to take full advantage. The Herd come in hot and they're victory over Wichita State shows that they're worthy of respect. Still, the battle-tested Mountaineers, now 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 NCAA tournament games, 9-3 ATS when favored in the -9.5 to -12 range, are going to simply be too much for them. The Herd allowed an average of 79 ppg. Playing against much tougher opposition, the Mountaineers allowed 69 ppg. 

You may recall that these two schools, which are less than 200 miles apart, used to play each other twice annually. The series stopped a few years back (2014) and there was some bad blood in the process. After the Marshall coach said "we're back" and called him "afraid,"  WVU coach Huggins responded with: "He can say I'm afraid all he wants. I've probably coached 1,116 more games than he has. It's ridiculous to say something like that. We're afraid. Yeah, we're really afraid. It's crazy, you know? We’ve beaten Duke. Mike is a pretty good coach. Was I afraid? I wasn't afraid playing Duke. Played Boeheim. We used to play him every year. Great coach. I wasn't afraid. Why would I be afraid? The thing that’s most laughable, and I'll get in trouble for saying it I know, but I'm to the point in my life where I really don't care. How about this? ‘We're back.’ That was their sixth loss in a row. ‘We’re back.’ ‘We're back’ all right. Honestly it's laughable ..... "

Huggins and the Mountaineers did get to face Marshall in 2015, after that exchange. WVU won by 18. Expect the Mountaineers, 14-7 ATS their last 21 (excluding pushes) lined games against teams which allow 77 or more points per game, to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way, en route to another convincing victory.

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). The Red Raiders received a tougher test in the first round than the Gators. Those results have helped in keeping this line very low. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value with a very strong Texas Tech team. Sure, the Raiders were tested. That can be a good thing. They responded to that test by pulling away for a 10-point win, narrowly missing the cover. Note that they're 11-2 the past 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points, 21-4 their past 25 in that situation. The Big 12 was tough this season. Yet, the Raiders thrived. They hit 46.4% of their field goals on offense. Florida, by comparison, hits 43.4%. On the other side, the Gators allow opposing teams to hit 42.7% of their field goals, while allowing 69.2 ppg. Texas Tech, on the other hand, allows 64.6 ppg, opposing teams hitting a mere 40.6% of their field goals. Arguably stronger on both sides of the ball, expect the Red Raiders to punch their ticket for the next round, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* GAME OF YEAR). From top-to-bottom, the Big 12 was arguably the best conference in the country this year. Despite playing in that highly competitive conference, Texas Tech still managed to earn 24 victories. Having been here four of the past five years and with Texas Tech slumping down the stretch, the Lumberjacks will be a popular upset pick. Don't buy into that. Expect the Red Raiders' much tougher schedule to pay dividends on Thursday evening, along with the fact that the game is being played in Dallas, the superior team pulling away for a convincing victory. 

I'm playing on HARVARD (10* BEST BET). Both teams are disappointed to be here. However, while Harvard has itself - and perhaps fate (Seth Jones injury) the Golden Eagles are feeling 'snubbed.' As of this writing, the status of Harvard's Seth Jones remains up in the air. He's a great player and the Crimson could certainly use him tonight. While he was in pain when he left the game against Penn, the knee injury didn't appear that bad - he was also seen shooting on the sidelines of yesterday's practice. So, its definiitely possible that he goes. Either way, the Crimson are an extrenely stingy team. They allow 66.5 ppg. By comparison, Marquette allows 78.5 ppg. Harvard limits opposing teams to a 42.2% fg shooting percentage. Marquette, on the other hand, allows teams to connect on 47.6% of their field goals. With Harvard its last 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog and Marquette feeling disappointed/snubbed at not making the NCAA Tournament, I'm grabbing all those generous points with the superior defensive team. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA GULF COAST (10* MISMATCH). Do the Cowboys deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably, in my opinion. Regardless of what side of that debate you might be on, they absolutely feel snubbed. Of course, they'll say all the right things about still wanting to come and show everybody how good they are tonight. They surely want to do exactly that. After suffering that type of disappointment and dealing with all the emotion, thats a lot easier said than done though. Regardless of what they say, its likely going to be hard for them to get up for this game. The Eagles have absolutely thrived (20-5 ATS L25!) as underdogs over the years and they've also had plenty of succes in March. Having score more than 90 points nine different times this season, this is a team which can score points with the best of them. While they'd also like to be in the NCAA Tournament, at least they know its their fault they're not there. I expect them to be the hungrier team tonight and am grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams split a pair of regular season meetings, each winning on its home floor. I expect the Rams to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While Davidson is playing well, I don't think the Rams are getting enough respect. Not only are they the #1 seed but they're also the defending champs. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are in their first finals since coming over to the A-10. Look for the Rams' big game experience and championship pedigree to show through, as they become the first repeat A-10 champs since Temple did so from 2008-2010, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs already dominated the Tar Heels in the regular season meeting. I expect them to finish on top once again this evening. UNC is just 5-9-1 ATS its last 15 tournament championship games. The Tar Heels are also just 4-6-2 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. Of course, at just 53.1 ppg allowed, Virginia falls into that category. Defense wins champiionships. At least, today in the ACC. Expect the #1 seed to make a statement. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* PERS FAV). The Eagles may have had the edge in the regular season. However, I expect the Rockets to emerge victorious, when it really matters. Both teams won yesterday. Eastern Michigan beat Akron by nine points. Toledo won by only two, against Miami Ohio. While the Eagles' win was arguably more impressive, I expect Toledo's very close margin of victory to work in its favor here. Its also worth pointing out that the Rockets are an outstanding 46-24 ATS their last 70 lined games, when playing with one day or less of rest in between games. (During the same stretch, Eastern Michigan is just 31-44 ATS when doing so.) Thats ancient history though. Right now, this year's Toledo team scores 80.1 ppg on the road while Eastern Michigan score just 68.7 ppg on the road. Expect the Rockets to dictate tempo and for them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on WKU (10* VIOLATOR). The Blazers managed to eke out a cover yesterday. However, they're stepping up significantly in class here and I expect them to stumble. WKU is 3-0 ATS its last three on a neutral court and 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, after allowing 80 or more points in its previous game. Even with yesterday's victory, the Blazers are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 neutral site games. I'm laying the small number with what I consider to be the superior team. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* PERS FAV). Its true that the Sooners had some trouble at the betting window, during the regular season. However, I believe that they'll prove to be a superior team than their instate rivals this evening. The Cowboys closed out the season off b2b wins. However, they haven't won three straight Big 12 games all season. While the Cowboys are 1-5 SU their past six March games, the Sooners are 9-2 SU their last 11 in March. They've got the much stronger offense (86 ppg vs. 76.9 ppg) and I expect that to ultimately prove the difference here.

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE (10* BIG SKY CONF TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR). The Hornets somehow managed to win both regular season meetings. However, when it really counts, I expect the Vikings to win big. Portland State had a good season, finishing with 19 wins. With four wins in their final five games, the Vikings come in with some positive momentum. With this game being played at Reno, a neutral site, its worth noting that this is a team which is comfortable playing away from home. In fact, they had a better record on the road than at home this season, the only team in the Big Sky which can make that claim. At the PK80 Invitational, a neutral site, the Vikings went toe-to-toe with the likes of Duke, Butler and Stanford. They were 3-0 ATS in those games, covering vs. Duke, very nearly upsetting Butler and beating Stanford outright. The Hornets, on the other hand, were a dismal 1-17 away from home, that lone win coming at Portland State. An experienced team, hungry to take the next step, expect the Vikings to avenge those regular season losses in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams just faced each other here on Friday. Down at halftime, the Bobcats rallied for a 75-66 victory. They also won (92-87) when they hosted the RedHawks a few weeks ago. However, I expect the RedHawks to have the advantage this evening and feel that they're favored for good reason. Even factoring in Friday's result, the Bobcats are still just 3-11 on the road. They get outscored by an average of 79.5 to 71.1 on the road. On the other hand, the RedHawks are still 8-5 here at home, outscoring teams by average of more than 10 points (77.9 to 67) per game. The RedHawks are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to punch their ticket for the next round, at Cleveland, improving on those 'revenge' stats along the way.

I'm playing on Hofstra and UNC Wilmington to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). These teams met twice in February. The first game, on 2/1, had an O/U line of 158 and produced 172 points, a 96-76 blowout for Hofstra. UNC Wilmington returned the favor on 2/10, delivering a 20-point blowout win of their own. That one had an O/U line of 160.5 and produced 160 points. In today's rematch, we're getting an even higher O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. With eight days off in between games, UNCW coach C.B. McGrath has been focusing on improving his team's defense. McGrath noted: "The defensive stuff that we did helps against every team, not just Hofstra. It's just simple concepts that we need to keep drilling." Including the 2/10 result, which snuck below the number by half a point, Hofstra has seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 160s. Expect those stats to improve here, the final combined score finishing lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* GAME OF YEAR). This is a huge game for the Seminoles and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. Senior guard Braian Angola had this to say: "It's one of the most important games of the season. We definitely need to win." Not only will the Noles be honoring their seniors but they'll also be looking to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. They could certainly use the extra win here. Also, any chance of avoiding playing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament relies on a victory here. Senior Phil Cofer noted: "I think myself and everyone else is definitely locked in. They know that we need this win to move on to the next thing." Look for the Noles, who were upset at BC in January, to send out their seniors in style, improving to 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the past seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Cyclones upset the Sooners when these teams met at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the revenge-minded Sooners to return the favor. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are playing their final regular season home game AND that the Cyclones swept them last season and we should have an extremely motivated OU team. Note that the Sooners are 14-9 ATS (17-6 SU) the past 23 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Cyclones average 73 ppg on the road, while allowing more than 80. Expect them to be unable to keep up with a motivated Sooner team which averages 92.7 ppg here at home. Revenge-minded Sooners pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE (10* MVC GAME OF YEAR). Teams from this "play in game" typically don't advance too far. However, the Bears aren't the typical "play in" team. Led by Alize Johnson (#1 in rebounding in the MVC, #5 in scoring) this team was, in fact, the preseason favorite in this conference. This is a team which defeated (25-5) Loyola, which ran away with the conference regular season title. The Bears beat the Crusaders by seven points, as an 8-point favorite, when the teams met in the regular season. While I still feel that they're the superior team, due to their poor finish, we're getting much better line value this time. With a chance at a "fresh start," expect the cream to rise to the top, Johnson and co. elevating their game and advancing to the next round.

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Colonials lost their last road game, a 62-53 setback at St. Louis. However, since an ugly loss to Davidson to begin the month, they've turned the corner here at home. Last game here, they beat Richmond by 26 points. Their previous game here saw them beat VCU by 24. Before that? An 11-point win over La Salle. Stepping down in class to face a Fordham team which has struggled all season, the Colonials have an opportunity to post another big win in their regular season home finale. I expect them to make the most of that opportunity. While the Rams may go all out to try and win Saturday's home finale, its been tough sledding on the road. Fordham averages less than 60 points per game away from home and its last four road losses have all come by double-digits. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE (10* MISMATCH). I believe that the Golden Flashes, who have dominated the RedHawks here over recent years, are going to want this one a little more than their guests. While Kent State will be playing its regular season home finale, Miami Ohio plays its home finale in its next game. The RedHawks' home finale will come against instate rival Ohio, which recently upset Miami Ohio. Speaking of "revenge games," the Golden Flashes will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Miami. The RedHawks are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. The Golden Flashes are 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past three times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Red Raiders have the higher ranking but I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. You may recall that WVU was ranked as high as #2 in the country this season. The Mountaineers achieved that ranking by winning 15 straight. The team that beat them? These same Red Raiders. Needless to say, WVU hasn't forgotten that 1-point loss. That led to a stretch where they lost five of six. The team is playing better now though, having won two in a row and five or seven. In addition to wanting to avenge the earlier loss and continue their current winning streak, the Mountaineers are playing their final home game of the regular season. The Mountaineers are going to want to close out their home season in style. Catching the Raiders off three straight losses, I expect them to do exactly that. 

I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Catamounts overcame a 16-point deficit to win 81-79 at Charleston back on 12/30. That result will likely have some backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. However, the Bulldogs are only 7-17 SU the past 24 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I believe this game will have significantly more meaning to the Catamounts. For starters, its their regular season home finale and the Catamounts will be honoring their six senior players. They'd like to send them out on a high note. Also, WCU badly wants to snap its losing streak, before entering the (conference) tournament. Perhaps most importantly, while the Bulldogs are already locked into a first round matchup, the Catamounts are trying to secure a top-6 seed. That's important as it would allow the Catamounts to avoid a first round game in the tournament. Note that WCU has won 12 of the last 14 meetings including four of the last five in Cullowhee. Also note that the Catamounts have thrived in the favorite role, going 13-4 ATS (15-2 SU) the past 17 times that they were laying points. Expect a highly motivated effort, as they improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* GAME OF WEEK). If Ole Miss beats Tennessee this afternoon (Vols are -4) then Auburn will already have clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title. Regardless of what happens in that earlier matchup, I expect the Gators to be the team which comes ready to play. The Gators have dropped three in a row, for just the second time this season. With a road game on deck, they know they have to "stop the bleeding" here. Note that the Gators beat a strong Cincy team, the only previous time that they'd lost three in a row this season. Including that 66-60 victory, they're an impressive and profitable 34-14 ATS over the years, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games. That includes a 5-2 SU/ATS mark in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. While Auburn can score with the best of them, the Gators have arguably the superior defense. Expect them to rise to the occasion and come away with an important victory. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). If the Panthers want a chance of snapping their skid and earning a conference victory, this is their chance to get it. After tonight, their final two games come against Virginia and at Notre Dame. Needless to say, this represents a far more winnable game. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Panthers as they go all out to get the win. The Demon Deacons are 10-17, 3-9 away from home. The Deacons haven't won a road game in 2018. Their last road win came way back in mid-December and that was by only four points, at Coastal Carolina. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, note that Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s while Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS when doing so. Last February's game (at WF) was decided by only four points. The previous February's game here at Pitt. was decided by only five. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The Bulldogs come in on an impressive roll at the betting window. Last time out, they knocked off instate rival Ole Miss by 17 points. That marked their seventh straight ATS victory. I expect that streak to get snapped on Tuesday. Note that this is the second time this season that the Bulldogs were coming off a game against Ole Miss. After their first game against the Rebels, the Bulldogs followed it up with a 17-point loss in their next game. That was their most lopsided defeat of the season. Recent ATS streak notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are still just 1-6 SU on the road, in 2018. They've also struggled the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites in this range. The Aggies are off back-to-back losses. However, both of those came on the road. In their most recent home game, they beat Kentucky by double-digits. Their previous home game, before that, was a 23-point win over South Carolina. In fact, they've won five straight at home and the last four of those victories all came by double-digits. The Aggies have thrived as home favorites in this range. While they lost at Miss. State last season, the Aggies had beaten the Bulldogs four straight times before that, including all three here at home. Expect homecourt to be the difference once again.

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE (3* VIOLATOR). These teams are at opposite ends of the Horizon Conference. The Raiders have enjoyed an excellent season and sit on top of the standings. They're 20-8 overall, 13-2 when listed as the home team. The Vikings, on the other hand, check in with a 8-21 record, a dismal 1-14 mark when listed as the road team. They figure to have trouble scoring this evening. While the Raiders allow a mere 59 points per game at home, the Vikings score just 63 ppg on the road. Normally, for a mismatch like this, the Vikings might hope the home team would overlook them. However, thats not happening here. Not only is this the Raiders' final home game of the reg. season, but they also lost at Cleveland State earlier this month, when listed as 9-point favorites. Arguably the low point of their season, the Raiders haven't forgotten. They're 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" here.

I'm playing on CAL (10* SHOCKER). While the Bears have admittedly had a tough season, I don't believe that Stanford deserves to be laying this many points on the road. The Bears beat Oregon State in their last game here. Nobody has beaten them by more than single-digits here since Arizona did so a month ago. The Cardinal are playing their third straight road game. They lost each of the first two, failing to cover in either. They're 0-4 on the road over the past month. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that Stanford is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS its last eight, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Bears, who already won by three at Stanford, have beaten the Cardinal by double-digits each of the past two meetings here at Cal. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on IDAHO (10* FALSE FAVORITE OF THE MONTH). This is a big game in the Big Sky Conference. I like the Vandals, who rallied for a 10-point win last time and who have now won five straight, to come out on top. There was no clear cut favorite in the Big Sky entering this season. Both these teams knew they'd be in the mix. Sure enough, they're #1 and #2. While Montana is already 20-6, note that ALL six of those losses came away from home. Last time out, the Grizzlies lost at Eastern Washington. That defeat snapped a 13-game winning streak and an undefeated record in conference play. While many will expect the Grizzlies to immediately bounce back, thats often easier said than done. Note that the Grizzlies were only 4-7 ATS off a conference loss, the past couple of seasons. Montana averages 73 ppg on the road while allowing 69.6. Idaho, on the other hand, averages 78.2 ppg at home, while allowing 66.8. Expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the surging Vandals making it six straight. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Rams won big when these teams met at Rhode Island. Not surprising, as they've been perfect on their home floor this season. They've been tough to beat away from home, too. But not unbeatable. In addition to losing a neutral site game at Virginia, the Rams have lost at Nevada and Alabama. The Bonnies, who have won seven straight overall, have also been very tough to beat on their home floor. Their only loss here came in the first game of the season, way back in early November. Since then, they've been perfect here. Expect them to get some payback this evening.

I'm playing on UCONN (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are much stronger at home. While Tulsa held serve on its home floor, a narrow 90-88 (2 OT) victory, I expect the revenge-minded Huskies to get some payback this evening. The Huskies are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were listed as favorites. Tonight's line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. Tulsa has trouble scoring on the road and the Huskies are stingy (65.7 ppg, 39.5% fg) here at home. UCONN bounces back. 

I'm playing on SDSU (10* PERS FAV). These teams are both much better on their home floor. The Cowboys won and covered at Wyoming in late December. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Aztecs to return the favor. I won with the Aztecs in their last home game, a 31-point destruction of Air Force. The Aztecs had entered that game off a blowout loss. They've since lost back-to-back road games, most recently getting blown out at Nevada. Once again, I expect homecourt and the home fans to provide the boost they need to bounce back. The Aztecs are 7-2 SU/ATS in home lined games. They outscore teams by an 81.1 to 60.5 margin here at home. On the other hand, Wyoming gets outscored by a 78.2 to 75.2 margin on the road. The Aztecs are 4-1 SU (3-1 ATS in lined games) after allowing 80 or more points. They beat the Cowboys by nine the last meeting here and I expect an even bigger margin here. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The Cavs are obviously having an excellent season. However, I believe that the Canes are catching them at the right time. After losing against V-Tech last time out, many will be banking on Virginia to bounce right back. Thats going to be easier said than done though, as this has become a very difficult venue to play at. The Canes have lost only one game here all season. That was against Duke, more than a month ago. Since then, they've beaten every team that has visited here. The Canes are off a loss at Boston College, a defeat which damaged their tournament resume. A win here and that loss will be forgiven/forgotten. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 

I'm playing on UNC-GREENSBORO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Southern Conference is strong this season and these two teams are leading the way. Each has been excellent at the betting window. The Buccaneers are on top and won when the teams met at ETSU. However, lets not forget that this Buccaneers team lost a lot from last season. The Spartans came up just short against ETSU in last season's conference tourney and they haven't forgotten. They're 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. After allowing a mere 48 points last time out, note that the Spartans are also 8-1 SU (6-1 ATS) the past nine times that they'd allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Off three straight double-digit wins, their confidence is at an all-time high. With an O/U line in the low-mid 130s, as of this writing, note that the Spartans are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 130 to 134.5. Can you say: "Payback time?"

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both teams earned important victories last time out. The Bruins significantly improved their tourney resume with an impressive road win at Arizona. The Sun Devils got back on track with a critical win against fellow bubble team USC. In what should be a high-scoring, up-tempo game, I look for homecourt to ultimately make the difference. Though some might be surprised to see them favored here, lets not forget that the Sun Devils have already beaten the likes of Kansas and Xavier. They've also got wins over teams like San Diego State, K-State, Vanderbilt and St. John's. While Arizona State outscores teams by an impressive 85.8 to 69.5 margin at home, the Bruins give up 81.1 ppg (while scoring 81.8) on the road. I like the way in which the Sun Devils beat USC. They hit a 3-pointer to tie the game with less than a minute left, then hit the game winner with just over a second left. Thats the type of victory that a team can build positive momentum from. With the Bruins just 7-19 ATS their past 26 road games when the O/U line was in the 160s, expect the home team to finish on top. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. Analysis to follow shortly. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* MAC GAME OF YEAR). The Cardinals will be looking to avenge an 88-80 (OT) loss, suffered at Kent State on 1/23. Additionally, they'll be looking to snap a 15-game skid in the series. Playing at home, where they've beaten the likes of Notre Dame and where they've only lost once all season, I expect them to finally get some "payback." While they're 9-3 at home, the Golden Flashes are just 3-9 away from home, 2-7 in true road games. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Bruins, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Wildcats are off a loss at Washington. Now, however, they're back home, where they're undefeated on the season. Not only do the Wildcats average an impressive 85 ppg here, connecting on 53.7% of their field goals, but they also limit visiting teams to just 67.6 ppg. By comparison, the Bruins allow a high 81.9 ppg, when playing on the road. The Cats won by 11 when these teams last met, a March game at Las Vegas in the Pac-12 Semi Finals. The gap is wider now than it was then and I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Bonnies have owned the Billikens the past couple of seasons. All four meetings have all gone the way of Bonnies. Last season, they won by 15 and 19 points, respectively. While the Bonnies were favored by double-digits for both last season's games, tevening's line is lower. Its also come down from its opener, as of this writing, providing us with excellent line value. The Bonnies outscore teams by a 79.7 to 63.7 margin on their home floor. On the other hand, the Billikens get outscored by an average score of 69.8 to 62.6 margin when playing away from home. Expect them to have trouble keeping up, the Bonnies covering the relatively low number, while continuing their recent dominance in the series. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). What a difference two months can make. When these teams met a couple of months ago, at Nebraska, the Gophers were favored by nine points. Now, playing at home, Minnesota has only opened as a slight favorite. I believe that is providing us with excellent value on the revenge-minded home team. While they did manage a win at Wisconsin last time out, the Huskers are still below .500 on the road. Expect homecourt to be the difference, the Gophers bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Mountaineers won and covered when they hosted the Cowboys back on 1/6. However, with this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the Sooners to return the favor. While the Mountaineers have been mediocre away from home, the Sooners are undeated at home. They're scoring an impressive 97.5 ppg here, too. Note that the Sooners are 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS the past 19 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Its true that the Sooners have failed to cover three straight. However, the two previous times that they failed to cover three in a row this season, the Sooners responded by beating Kansas and Wichita State. Expect them to bounce back once again. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). Air Force is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss last time out, their fourth in five games, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Facing an Air Force team which they limited to 38 points here last season should be the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. When the Aztecs do win, they tend to win big. Their most recent two wins came by 19 and 36 combined points. In fact, every one of their victories since Christmas has come by double-digits. The average margin of victory in those games was 21. Each of the home wins has come by 19 or more. Air Force, meanwhile, lost its last road game by 22 points. Thats nine double-digit losses on the season. Ten after tonight. Look for the Aztecs to bounce back big, improving to 7-2 ATS in home lined games along the way. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* SHOCKER). Off three straight losses, the Buffaloes are going to be in an angry mood. I expect them to take it out on a Utes team which is still stinging from a 1-point loss at Arizona and which is now playing its third straight road game. Coming so close at Arizona, only to come up short, figures to have a lingering effect. While they do deserve some credit for managing a win at Arizona State, the Utes are still 1-3 in four 2018 road games. Speaking of Arizona State, off their only previous 3-game slide, the Buffaloes returned home to beat ASU by nine points, the 90 points they scored representing their most in conference play. Also, note that the Buffs are an outstanding 19-7 SU/ATS the past 26 times that they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort once again. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN (10* PERS FAV). The Northeastern women's team recently hammered the College of Charleston women's team here, winning by 22 points. Tonight, I expect the men to do the same. The Cougars won big when these teams met at College of Charleston. However, the Huskies are a perfect 7-0 SU, going 5-1-1 ATS, the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. This season, the Huskies are outscoring teams by a commanding 77 to 63 margin here. Not surprisingly, they're 5-1 ATS here in lined games. That stingy homecourt defense figures to present problems for the Cougars, who are averaging just 65 ppg, on only a 40.3% mark with field goals, when playing on the road. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERS FV). I successfully played against the Colonials when the lost at VCU recently. Admittedly, as I acknowledged at the time, the Colonials have really struggled on the road. However, they're a much stronger team here at home. Last time on this floor, they beat George Mason by double-digits. The Dukes are another team which they match up well against. Note that GW has beaten the Dukes five straight times here. Duquesne has gotten off to a decent start. However, its off back-to-back losses and I expect things to start to unravel. A relatively eash schedule has made them seem better than they really are. To their credit, the Dukes played the Rams tough, at Rhode Island, last time out. However, the fact that they fought hard only to come up short, figures to take a toll on them here. Note that the only previous time that they played the second of b2b true road games, the Dukes lost by double-digits. Overall, they're 1-3 in true road games, the long victory coming at Fordham. Look for homecourt to make the difference as revenge-minded GW comes through with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). When these teams met on 1/9, at Nebraska, the Huskers were favored by -1.5 points. The Huskers would go on to win by a 56-50 margin. Since that time, the Huskers have won four of six, covering the spread in each of their past four. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has only played four games since the loss at Nebraska. The Badgers lost three of those. A closer look reveals that all three of those losses came on the road, where the Badgers have admittedly struggled. They won their lone home game, during that stretch, by 25 points. In fact, since a 12/9 loss vs. Marquette, the Badgers have won six straight games here, the last five of those coming by double-digits. While the Huskers have been playing better of late, they're still just 2-6 SU in true road games. The Badgers have dominated the Huskers here, including an 11-point win last season and a 15-point win the prevous season. Expect homecourt to make the diference, as they bounce back with a much needed victory. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA (10* BEST BET). These teams played a close one at Northern Iowa earlier. While the Panthers were favored by five, the Ramblers won that 1/7 meeting by six points. That dropped UNI to 0-4 in conference play, at the time. It also marked the Panthers' sixth straight loss. They'd go on to lose their next one too. Since then, however, UNI has turned things around. Off a double-digit win last time out, they've now won three of their last four. Even when they were losing, the Panthers were competitive. None of their last seven games resulted in a double-digit loss. With Wichita State having left the conference, Northern Iowa was expecting to be a team which challenged for the MVC title. While things obviously didn't start too well, the Panthers still believe that they can beat any team in the conference. For that to be the case, they know they're going to need to beat the Ramblers. Look for the revenge-minded Panthers to give their hosts all they can handle Sunday afternoon, with a shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on IDAHO. While the Vandals have failed to cover in three straight, this should be an excellent spot for them to "get healthy." The last time that the Vandals had failed to cover three in a row, they responded with a 7-point win and cover at Eastern Washington. In fact, they're 7-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after failing to cover their previous three. Now they'll host a struggling North Dakota team which is playing its fourth straight on the road. Last time out, facing the same Eastern Washington team which Idaho defeated, the road weary Fighting Hawks lost by 24. While the Vandals allow a mere 65 ppg (40.1% fg) on their home floor, the Hawks give up a whopping 89.7 ppg (51 fg%) on the road. The Vandals already won by 17, at North Dakota, on 12/29. While North Dakota would obviously like to avenge that loss, I don't see it happening. Not here. Not tonight. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. *Top Big Sky Conference play

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Penguins won and covered when they hosted the Panthers on 1/4. Playing this evening's rematch on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Panthers to return the favor. The Panthers were right there for the game at Youngstown State, as the game went back and forth. The Penguins opened up on a 15-4 run before the Panthers answered with a 21-5 surge of their own. Ultimately, the Penguins prevailed. However, they have a lot more trouble winning on the road. In fact, they're 0-3 SU/ATS their last three on the road and a dismal 1-13 SU in road and neutral site games overall. The Panthers snapped a 4-game skid with a win and cover vs. Wright State last time out. The losing streak in the rear-view mirror, look for them to get some payback with another win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* A-10 GAME OF YEAR). While they're dropped four of their last five, including one to St. Joseph's, the Bonnies are better than their recent results indicate. Playing with recent 'revenge,' I expect them to prove that this evening. The Hawks are just 1-5 SU in six true road games. That lone victory came by four points, back in November, at Illinois-Chicago. While the Hawks may have won this season's earlier meeting, the Bonnies have dominated the series in recent seasons. Expect them to bounce back with a double-digit win.  

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). After playing three of their last four on the road, the Red Raiders will be happy to return home. Indeed, while they lost all three of those recent road games, they're undefeated on their home floor. On the season, the Red Raiders have beaten the likes of Kansas and WVU from within the conference while also taking down teams from the ACC and Big Ten. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be in an angry mood. Like their hosts, the Cowboys are much better on their home floor. In fact, they're 0-3 SU/ATS in true road games. Those losses came by an average of 13.3 points, too. Off a close win over rival Oklahoma, I feel the Cowboys could suffer a slight emotional letdown here. The Raiders are 16-9 ATS (24-1 SU) the past 25 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). With four losses in their last five games, this is a critical game for the Frogs. That's particularly true given that they play three of their next four on the road. The Mountaineers are tough but they're not unbeatable. Their last road game resulted in a loss at Texas Tech. Off a blowout win of Texas, it could be easy for them to overlook the Frogs, if only a little, and get caught looking ahead to their next game, a showdown vs. Kentucky. The Frogs could easily be undefeated here. They lost by one against Oklahoma and by four against Kansas. They've beaten every other opponent here while also winning all three of their neutral site game. Last home game resulted in a 23-point win over Iowa State. Expect them to rise to the occasion.

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Buffaloes won by double-digits when they hosted the Huskies last February. I'm expecting another big win here. Off b2b victories and now 4-1 its last five, Colorado comes in playing its best basketball of the season. Washington, on the other hand, is off b2b losses. Note that the Huskies are just 1-5 ATS when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. While the Huskies have been mediocre on the road, he Buffaloes have been dominant at home this season. They're 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on CAL IRVINE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Anteaters got on track last time out, a 74-57 victory at CS-Northridge. On the other hand, the Mustangs lost by 12, at Hawaii. Though they've had a week off since then, returning home from Hawaii isn't always the easiest on a team. In the Mustangs case, they're just 8-15 ATS their last 23, off a conference loss. During that span, they're also 0-3 ATS (1-4 SU) in five games, when playing with seven or more day's rest in between games. With an O/U line in the low-mid 130s, the pace should favor the Anteaters. UC Irvine is 30-19-1 ATS its last 50, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. During that span, the Mustangs are just 9-22 SU/ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. The Anteaters haven't forgotten that the Mustangs upset them here last year. Payback time tonight. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin and Purdue to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). Both teams have seen recent games finish below the total. Those results have worked in our favor by helping to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe it'll prove to be too low. True, Wisconsin games are averaging only 134 points. However, Purdue games are averaging a much higher 147.7. Conference games, though lower-scoring than non-conference ones, are still averaging 139. Look for the Boilermakers, who have scored 70 or more in 11 straight games, to put up 75+, the Badgers chipping in enough to send the final combined score OVER the relatively low number.  

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The Golden Grizzlies are off back-to-back double-digit victories. I expect them to follow those with another win here. Neither of those victories was quite enough to cover the large pointspread. Today's number is much smaller though. While the Flames have a solid team this season, in my opinion, the Grizzlies are the class of the league. Note that the Flames are 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU!) their last six against teams with a winning record. Expect the Grizzlies to finish on top, this time picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on VIRGINIA (10* VIOLATOR). At first glance, this number may appear a little higher. However, if we take a closer look, I think you'll see it could easily be even higher. True, the Wolfpack have already beaten both Duke and Arizona, showing they are capable of beating anyone. However, the Duke win came at home and the Arizona win came at the Bahamas. Note that they've lost (at home) vs UNC Greensboro and also lost (neutral) vs. Northern Iowa. So, they can also lose to anyone. In fact, they've lost ALL their "true" road games. On the other hand, the Cavs are undefeated at home. The Wolfpack are soft on defense - ranking 131st in the country - and allowing 82 ppg in conference play. The Cavs are dominant on defense, allowing a mere 55 ppg in conference play, a paltry 51.3 at home. Note that NC State is just 2-9 ATS the past 2+ seasons against teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game, 1-3 SU/ATS so far this season. The Cavs won by 15 at NC State last season and by 20 the last time that the teams met on this floor. I'm expecting another blowout here. 

I'm playing on XAVIER (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Bluejays have been playing well, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I successfully played against the Musketeers last Saturday, as they got upset by at Providence. That was followed by a loss at Villanova. Off b2b losses, this well-coached team is going to be in an angry mood. Keep in mind that both losses came on the road. At home, the Musketeers remain perfect. They're 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS here, having beaten the likes of Baylor, Butler and Cincy here. Keep in mind that Creighton is 0-3 SU/ATS its last three, when listed as an underdog. Look for Bluiett, Macura and co. to elevate their game, snapping the skid while covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on CAL IRVINE (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like the Anteatater, as a small favorite, on Thursday. Cal Irvine hammered the Titans the last time that these teams met here, a 20-point win almost exactly a year ago. The previous season's meeting here also resulted in a double-digit win for the Anteaters. While UCI is outscoring teams by an average of 82.8 to 66.2 at home, Cal State Fullerton is giving up 81 ppg when playing on the road. With a total currently listed in the low 140s, note that the Anteaters are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. Going back further finds them at 13-7 ATS (14-6 SU) their last 20 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS (10* PERS FAV). The Tigers have been playing well this year and aren't slouches. However, this is a tough venue. The Razorbacks have beaten the Tigers three straight times. All three of those victories came by a minimum of eight points and the two games here both came by double-digits. Off b2b road losses, the Razorbacks are going to be happy to return home. While they're 0-3 SU in true road games, the Razorbacks are a perfect 8-0 SU on their home floor.

With an O/U line in the 160s, its worth mentioning that Arkansas is 9-2 ATS (11-0 SU) its last 11, when playing a home game with a total in the 160s. Also, note that the Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS their last five, as as home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Meanwhile, LSU is just 3-11 ATS its last 14, when coming off an SEC win. 

Arkansas coach Mike Anderson noted: "One message I've got to get to our guys is to get more defensive-minded and create havoc on defense. We talk about winning a conference championship, you've got to win at home ... " Look for the Razorbacks to bounce back, picking up the cover along the way.

I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S. After fighting hard in two tough road losses, St. John's stumbled as a favorite against Depual last time out. However, I expect the Red Storm to bounce back big this evening. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as of this writing, its worth noting that St. John's is a perfect 5-0 ATS, along with a pair of pushes, its last seven when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. On the other hand, the Hoyas are 0-5 ATS, during the same span, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Red Storm bounce back with a much needed win, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). These teams are both hoping for and expecting big things in the Horizon League this season. Both are perfect on their floor. With this evening's game being played at Rochester (Michigan) I expect the Golden Grizzlies to have a solid advantage. NKU can score plenty of points. However, the Golden Grizzlies can also score with the best of them. While both teams are averaging better than 80 ppg, its the Grizzlies who boast the THREE top-scorers in the conference. All of them are seniors, too. Senior guard Kendrick Nunn leads the conference at better than 25 ppg. Senior forward Jaylen Hayes is at better than 20 ppg and senior guard Martez Walker averages better than 19 ppg. On the road, the Norse are 0-4 this season. They've lost road games at Memphis, Maryland-Baltimore County, East Tennessee State and Texas A&M. Picked by some as the preseason favorite to win the Horizon League, expect Oakland to rise to the occasion and take care of business on Friday night. 

I'm playing on INDIANA-PURDUE (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like the momentum that the Jaguars bring to the table. They rang in the year by defeating Wisconsin Green Bay, on the road, despite a big disadvantage at the free throw line. They outrebounded the Phoenix by a commanding 43-31 margin, while holding them to less than 40% of their field goals as well as just 1-for-17 from beyond the arc. 

Jason Gardner, IUPUI's head coach, had this to say of his team's last effort: "I liked that we showed we can win a game at the defensive end. That's what we're capable of doing. That way, when shots aren't falling, we're still able to compete and get a huge road win. I thought Ev and D.J. did a great job on the glass and we did a good job of identifying their shooters and challenging their shots."

While the Jags, who have faced the likes of Purdue and Gonzaga, come in with some positive momentum, the Flames have dropped four of five. (The lone win, during that stretch, was a no-line game vs. Trinity.) They lost by 35 last time out and remain winless on the road. 

I'm believe homecourt will prove significant. I'm riding IUPUI's positive momentum and laying the small number. 

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a big game for the Eagles. While beating Clemson will not be easy, its entirely possible. Its also perhaps necessary, if BC wants to achieve its goals. Keep in mind that the Eagles already beat Duke and are undefeated at home. Also, note that they lost by only one, at Virginia, last time out. In other words, they're coming in full of confidence and believing that they can win this game. The Tigers are tough and deserving of their ranking. However, they've still only played one true road game this season and they also could be getting a little over-confident. With a showdown vs. Louisville on deck, it may be easy to overlook tonight's opponent. Look for the Eagles, 11-7 ATS their last 18 as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, to give their guests all they can handle, taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* PERS FAV). The Badgers are playing their best basketball right now. While the opponents were admittedly on the weak side, back-to-back-to-back double-digit victories has them full of confidence. Thats something I feel that this relatively young team needed and I expect it to help them this evening. The Hoosiers have played three true road games. They lost all three. Each loss came by a minimum of nine points. They were 0-2-1 ATS in those games. They're now 9-16 SU and 8-15 ATS their past 25 true road games. Speaking of "road woes," the Hoosiers have lost 15 straight at the Kohl Center and haven't won here since the late 90s. Expect the Badgers to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Georgia/Kentucky to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). With the Wildcats having played several consecutive 'overs,' their O/U lines are getting higher and higher. Conference play is here now though; I feel tonight's number is generously high. Note that the UNDER is 25-11-1 the past 37 times that Kentucky played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. While the Cats play on short rest, the Bulldogs play with extra rest. The last time that they played with a gap of seven or more day's in between games, they managed just 62 points, at UMass. Including that result, all three of Georgia's true road games have fallen below the number. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line in the mid/high 140s but produced only 131 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* CBB GAME OF WEEK). The Wildcats beat their instate rivals by scores of 99-61 and 91-75 the last two meetings here. While the Sun Devils are indeed improved and playing well, I don't think that they're ready to win here quite yet. Note that ASU is 0-3 ATS the past three times it was a road underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. While both teams are scoring big points, note that ASU is allowing 82.7 ppg (49.6% fg) on the road while Arizona is allowing 64.7 ppg (39.8% fg) here at home. Look for that superior homecourt defense to prove the difference. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). I like the direction which the Bruins are closing out 2017. They followed up a narrow win vs. South Dakota with a win and cover against Kentucky last time out. Now, they step down in class to take on a team which they have long dominated. The last three meetings, all of them UCLA wins, have seen the Bruins win by a combined 58 points, nearly 20 per game. This year's Cougars have proven vulnerable to getting 'blown out' as they have already lost by 14 vs. Cal Davis and by 27 against Idaho. Expect a lopsided result. 

I'm playing on WVU/OSU OVER the total. 

I'm playing on SMU (10* AAC GAME OF MONTH). The Mustangs entered Christmas off back-to-back blowout wins. They're perfect at home, averaging better than 80 ppg here while allowing less than 60. UCF, which lost by 38 to WVU earlier, hasn't played a strong opponent in the past few weeks. Outside of 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall, who presents a unique challenge, I don't think the Knights match up well. I dont think that their recent level of opposition will have them prepared for what the Mustangs are going to bring to the table here. Expect a double-digit win for the home team. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH). Off back-to-back SU victories, the Gophers are back on track. Now, they catch an inferior opponent going in the opposite direction. The Owls followed up a close 1-point loss by getting destroyed by 36 points, as a 23-point underdog, last time out. Off that loss, playing their final game before Christmas, it should be easy for them to "pack it in," once they start falling behind. Expect the Gophers to give their fans a Christmas win and cover. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Oakland, which lost at Eastern Michigan a few weeks back, is 7-2 ATS its last nine when attempting to avenge a road loss. While Eastern Michigan averages 74.5 ppg (44.7 fg %) on the road, Oakland averages 89.6 ppg on its home floor, connecting on better than 51% of its field goals. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CAL (10* PERS FAV). Portland State has been money at the betting window this season but I expect that to change this evening. After scoring 95 and 81 points in their past two games, the Bears come in full of confidence. Portland State has been beating up on the likes of Linfield. They just lost by 11, narrowly covering the +13, against a Pac-12 team two games ago. Expect their ATS good fortune to run out tonight, the Bears improving to 13-7 the last 20 times that they scored 80 or more points in their previous game.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* PERS FAV). Too many advantages for the Cards in this one, as they're far stronger on both sides of the ball. While Albany is 0-7 its last seven against teams from the ACC, Louisville is a perfect 20-0 SU and a profitable 14-6 ATS its last 20, when listed as a home favorite of greater than a dozen points. Albany allows a 48.9% field goal percentage on the the road, while Louisville limits opposing teams to just a 37.1% mark here at home. It all adds up to a blowout. 

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA (10* PERS FAV). The Bulls got on track with a confidence-building 83-63 win last time out. That makes it five times in their past seven games that they've allowed 65 or fewer points. That type of defense will be the difference this evening. Northern Arizona is off b2b double-digit losses and has allowed 70 or more points in 10 of 11 games this season, an average of 81.2 ppg overall. While Northern Arizona is allowing opposing teams to hit a whopping 50.6% of their field goals on the road, USF is allowing a stingy 38.4% here at home. Expect the Bulls to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH (10* PERS FAV). Chattanooga has alternated wins and losses for nearly a full month now. Off a win last time out, I expect the pattern to continue and for today's game to result in a loss. Note that the Mocs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU victory. Tech comes in hungry, off three straight road losses. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had won six straight, prior to that skid. When listed as the home team, Tech is 4-0 and has outscored opponents by a commanding 92-63 margin. Expect them to bounce back and take care of business this afternoon, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Utes have had the better of the Cougars in recent seasons. However, I expect the Cougars to take care of business this evening. Granted, the schedule hasn't been exactly tough. Still, the Cougars check in with a 5-game winning streak and full of confidence. The last four of those victories all came by greater than five points. While perfect at home, Utah has struggled on the road. The Utes' last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at Butler. Before that, they'd lost a neutral site game against UNLV by 27. Off a win over another instate rival (Utah St) look for the Utes to have a minor letdown here with the Cougs more than happy to take full advantage.

I'm playing on Texas/Michigan to finish UNDER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). Last season's meeting had an O/U line of 130.5 and produced only 103 combined points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair tonight. Both these teams can play defense. Mohamed Bamba, who Michigan tried to recruit themselves, ended up with Texas. While the 7-footer is also a threat offensively, its his defense which figures to give the Wolverines real problems. Points in the paint won't come easily. Meanwhile, Texas will be playing its first game without its leading scorer; Andrew Jones (15.3 ppg) is out. Look for points to be at a premium, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the past six times that the Longhorns played with five or six day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gophers may have the higher ranking. However, the Razorbacks are favored for good reason. Minnesota came back to earth last time out, a double-digit loss at Nebraska. The Hogs, on the other hand, bring plenty of confidence to the table. They've already beaten the likes of Oklahoma and UConn and they're off a 92-66 thrashing of Colorado State. With an O/U line in the mid-160s, note that Arkansas is a perfect 10-0 SU the past 10 times that it played a home game with an O/U line in the 160s, covering the spread in eight of those. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on CAL RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). Since upsetting Cal in their opener, the Highlanders have gone through a tough stretch. This figures to be a good spot to get back on track though. The Falcons, who lost vs. Abilene Christian last time out, are just 2-13 SU the past 15 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Now, they're being asked to lay points. The Highlanders have only lost one home game by more than two this season. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons have lost this matchup each of the past two years. Tonight should be an excellent spot to get some payback. SF eked out a SU victory last time out, providing some confidence. Eastern Washington, on the other hand, lost by 19 points at Seattle. In fact, all five of this season's losses have been by double-digits. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on DAYTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). I like how this one sets up for the home team. Tennessee Tech just saw a 6-game winning streak snapped last time out and may come in a bit deflated, as a result. The Flyers will be stepping down in class. They just gave Miss. State everything that it could handle. The last time that they faced a team (Akron) in a similar class as the one they'll face tonight, the won by 13 as an 8.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for another double-digit win this evening.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Notre Dame. Ball State comes in off an 83-63 win over INDPU, while Notre Dame enters off a 71-53 home victory over St. Francis. Ball State averages 80.5 PPG and allows 81.2. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. The Cardinals have played two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Oregon this season, losing by 39 to the Sooners and falling 95-71 to the Ducks. Notre Dame though is on an entirely different level, coming in averaging 80.1 PPG and allowing just 61.9. After falling to Michigan State, the Irish bounced back with a solid win over St. Francis and I don’t foresee them “looking past” their opponent today either. Ball State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and all signs point to another letdown here. Lay the points, Irish roll.

10* SUPER SPECIAL on Indiana. Indiana will be especially motivated here after it fell 69-55 to Michigan on the road on Monday. Indiana will in fact be looking to break a two-game slide. Iowa has also lost two straight, most recently a tough 77-73 setback at home to Penn State. These teams played twice last year and each won its home floor (Iowa won 96-90 in OT in Iowa City, before the Hoosiers got their revenge with a 95-73 win in the Big Ten Tournament to eliminate the Hawkeyes chance for an NCAA Tournament berth.) Iowa coach Fran McCaffery is just 5-7 all time agains the Hoosiers and I think his team will have a difficult time here in this hostile environment. Indiana has held its last five opponents to just 33.3 percent shooting from range, which I think spells doom for the streaky Hawkeyes. Lay the points, Hoosiers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on UCLA. The Titans looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion. Detroit had dropped three in a row before a 91-83 victory over IUPU-Ft. Wayne on Tuesday. It wasn’t pretty either really, winning the shooting battle 47.6 percent to 44.3 percent. Detroit also committed 18 turnovers. The Titans got balanced scoring in that one, but now they face a red hot UCLA Bruins team which has won three straight (6-1 overall) and which just took care of business in a 75-66 victory over Cal State Bakersfield. In that game UCLA held the Roadrunners to just 29.9 percent shootng, while hitting 46 percent itself. With a much more “winnable” game upcoming against Toledo, I think the visitors simply go through the motions tonight. Lay the points as UCLA pulls away down the stretch. Bruins roll.

8* BEST BET on San Francisco. Arizona State hasn’t been ranked in nine years, but it is now (No. 21.) The Sun Devils have averaged 95.7 points. Arizona State is a smaller team which likes to push the pace and it gets balanced scoring as well. The Dons saw their three-game win streak come to an end in Tuesday’s 79-72 loss to UC Santa Barbara in their most recent action. San Francisco has also been getting production from its reserves, as the Dons’ bench has scored at least 26 points in five consecutive games. With a week off before a neutral site game against St. John’s, I think the Sun Devils have a small letdown here and look past their lowly opponent. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that San Francisco has the depth to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL on the under Indiana/Michigan. Indiana comes in off a 91-81 setback to Duke on Wednesday, while Michigan comes in off an 86-71 loss to the Blue Devils. Indiana will be looking to atone for its lacklustre defensive effort last time out, allowing Duke to shoot 55 percent from the floor. So far Indiana averages 78.3 PPG and allows 76. Michigan averages 77.8 PPG and allows just 63.4. The Wolverines looked shaky on both ends of the floor in their loss to UNC, allowing the Tar Heels to shoot 55 percent. Each team comes in off a loss, getting blown because of a poor defensive effort. With each putting a concerted effort on that end of the floor this afternoon though, I’m expecting a lower-scoring under once the final horn sounds.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE is on Oregon. The Ducks are going to be the more “desperate” team in my opinion, as they come in having lost two of their last three, most recently setbacks against UConn and Oklahoma. Conversely, the Broncos look poised for a letdown after consecutive victories over Loyola Marymount and Loyola-Chicago. Boise State though catches a Ducks team looking to atone for a lacklustre 71-63 OT loss to DePaul, followed by a 90-80 setback to the Cowboys. In fact, it’s safe to say that Oregon will be highly motivated here, as the 90 points given up to the Sooners was the most that the Ducks have allowed since 2015. Oregon is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 at home and I like it to bounce back with a convincing effort here. Lay the points, Ducks roll.

10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on the over Notre Dame/Michigan State. Two of the top teams in the nation collide on Thursday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Irish are 6-0 SU, while Michigan State is 5-1. Notre Dame most recently beat Witchita State 67-66, while Michigan State crushed UNC 63-45 on Sunday. So far ND averages 84.5 PPG, while allowing 60.2. The Spartans average 80.8 PPG and allow just 63. ND though has seen the total go over in four of its last five after holding an opponent to 66 points or less in its previous contest, while MSU has seen the total soar over in three of its last four after holding its opponent to 48 points or less in its previous outing. Great offenses vs. great defenses. I think the depth that each team brings to the table will help theses offenses push this one over as the game comes down the stretch though. Play the over. 

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Nevada. This is a matchup in the Mountain West-Missouri Valley Conference Challenge. Illinois State had its two game win streak snapped with a tough 64-62 OT loss to Charleston Southern on Saturday, while Nevada comes into this one unbeaten after a 67-54 road win over Hawaii on Saturday. The Redbirds average 75.3 PPG, while allowing 72.3. Nevada averages 84.3 PPG and allows just 67.3. Illinois State’s lack of depth (lost the majority of its starters from last year) is becoming very apparent. Nevada on the other hand is starting to dominate on both ends of the floor and it has to be feeling confident in friendly confines. Lay the points, Wolfpack rolls.

10* BEST BET on Iona. Iona is just 1-4, its lone win coming over Weber State. In the latest loss to Coastal Carolina, Rickey McGill put up 23 points and seven assists. Ohio has done a little better than its counterpart today, coming into this one sitting at 3-2 on the year. Most recently Ohio knocked off St. Mary’s, with Teyvion Kirk posting 20 points, five boards and six assists. The Gaels came out slow against the Chanticleers last time out, putting up 26 points in the first half. Iona though put up 58 points in the second and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Conversely, while Ohio does come in off back-to-back wins, note that its just 1-3 ATS in its last four after putting up more than 95 points in back-to-back outings previously (beat Indiana State 96-94 in four OT’s and then Saint Mary’s 96-77.) Grab the points, play on Iona.