Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. You have to feel bad for RGIII after working hard to get back in the NFL as a starter and then go down with a broken shoulder bone and it out until at least Week Nine. Cleveland though is not in bad shape because of it as Josh McCown will take over. In eight starts last season, he put up a solid 93.3 passer rating until he broke his collarbone and that happened to come against the Ravens so he will certainly be motivated here for some payback. The Browns were competitive for a while last week as they trailed the Eagles by just five points late in the third quarter before Philadelphia closed with a pair of touchdowns. Now they head home and are catching more points than they did last week against a team that should not at all be considered better than the Eagles. Baltimore won an ugly 13-7 game over the Bills last Sunday as the Ravens limited Buffalo to just 160 total yards. While some of that can be attributed to the defense, the Buffalo offense is in shambles we witnessed Thursday so that is a deceptive yardage allowed total. This line makes zero sense at all. They were favored last week by three at home and now it is a 10-point line swing against a team that is on the same plane as Buffalo. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (268) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Going into this game, many would have thought the records of these two teams would be reversed but instead, Carolina enters Week Two 0-1 while San Francisco comes in with a 1-0 record. From a situational standpoint, it does not get much better with a Panthers team that has lost its last two games returning home where they went 10-0 last season and has won 13 in a row overall. Additionally, they are playing with added rest because of the Thursday game last week while the 49ers are playing on short rest following their game on Monday. Making it tough for San Francisco is the fact that this is an early game for a west coast team which is always a difficult spot. If this whole scenario sound familiar, it is because it is. Last season, San Francisco won its Monday night game in an upset over the Vikings and then travelled the next week to Pittsburgh which was coming off a Thursday night loss to the Patriots for an early start game. The Steelers rolled 43-18 and a similar outcome can be expected this Sunday. This situation has been profitable for years as we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. The 49ers are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 Sunday games following a Monday night game while the Panthers are 14-1 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera coming off a road loss. 10* (276) Carolina Panthers

Week One saw a lot of offense in the NFL but Buffalo was not in that group, not even close. the Bills managed only 160 total yards and seven points against the Ravens and while many are saying this is a must win game for the Jets, the same can be said about the other side. Buffalo can ill afford to drop to 0-2 with Arizona and New England on deck. The Jets lost a tough one on Sunday as they dropped their game against Cincinnati by a point. Unfortunately, it came down to a missed extra point and now New York hits the road to the same place where its season ended last year in a 22-17 loss to the Bills. The Jets will be out for revenge but playing road revenge is not a good recommendation. For Buffalo, quarterback Tyrod Taylor was ok last week but did not make any big plays what he is certainly capable of. Last season, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. In fact, his 99.4 QBR was ranked seventh in the NFL. Additionally, the he rushed for 568 yards, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. His two starts last season against the Jets were solid and while his numbers were not over the top, he managed both games well. On the other side, the Buffalo secondary is the strength and the Bills held the Jets to under 200 passing yards in both matchups last season. Buffalo won its final four games at home last season and the crown will be a big factor for their first game that happens to be in primetime. We are getting great value here as this game opened with the Bills being a three-point favorite and now they are an underdog in some spots. 10* (102) Buffalo Bills

As we saw on Sunday, a large number of heavy public favorites failed to cover the number and overall, the chalk is 4-10 through the first 14 games. Lines are based on some of the numbers of last season as well as expectations for this season and we are seeing a strong case of that here. Even though Washington won the division last year, it is not getting a ton of respect and has actually been picked to finish last in the NFC East (prior to Romo injury) in a few places which really makes no sense. The Redskins bowed out of the playoffs last season in the Wildcard Round following a 4-0 finish to the regular season and they are only better this year. Pittsburgh is once again picked to win the AFC North and this is no doubt a talented team being favored on the road is a tad overaggressive. The Steelers were favored on the road only twice all of last regular season and those games were Week 16 and Week 17 against Baltimore and Cleveland which were meaningless games for the opposition. Pittsburgh finished No. 30 in the NFL last season against the pass and will have a tough time defending DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed. Additionally, the Steelers are banged up on the defensive line so getting any sort of pressure on Kirk Cousins may not happen which will put the secondary in more troubling situations. This line has been bet down to under a field goal in some places but with the public once again hammering the road favorite, we are fine with it and it likely will back up prior to gametime. 10* (480) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the PATRIOTS for our Sunday Night Primetime. The Patriots come into the season with a lot of hype but so much in the beginning of the season. With Tom Brady out the first four games, Jimmy Garoppolo and he should be all set to manage this game properly. The reason behind that is head coach Bill Belichick who loves playing the underdog card and it would not be surprising at all to see Brady come back to a 4-0 record. This line is telling us that the Patriots are pretty serious underdogs but player for player, there is not much of a difference between these two teams with the exception of the quarterback obviously. Arizona had a season a year ago but I do not expect a repeat of that. The Cardinals were fortunate that Seattle got off to a slow start but even with that, you have to give them credit for running the table. If this game were played at this time last year, Arizona may be a three-point favorite at best and there will not be any sneaking up on teams this season and you have to think there has to be some sort of regression. Carolina helped the rest of the league out by showing how to shut Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense down in the playoffs and we can guarantee Belichick has watched that tape a few times. The Patriots strength is the back end of the defense and that is where Palmer carved up a lot of teams last season. Belichick always puts a premium on preventing big plays, and his defense created 10 turnovers during the preseason. Despite going 6-2 at home last season, the Cardinals went just 1-6 ATS over their last seven home games. 10* (477) New England Patriots

This is a play on the CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Game of the Week. The Chargers last won the division back in 2009 and have made the playoffs only one time since then but there is a possibility that changes this season as they are a sleeper by many. Last year, they had their fewest wins since 2003 so they are being counted out already however San Diego was killed by injuries last season and was done because of that. Now healthy, the Chargers could make a run in the division as farfetched as that may sound. The biggest issue was the offensive line but is back to full strength and will give Philip Rivers time in the pocket and open some holes for Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs were not strong enough last season to catch Denver but they certainly turned some heads after winning their final 10 regular season games following a 1-5 start. They blanked the Texans in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs but lost to the Patriot the following week. The biggest concern for Kansas City is its defense as three key players are banged up including Justin Houston who will be out at least seven weeks. Offensively, their offensive line was a concern and while they tried to make improvements in the offseason, the jury is still out if that will be the case. Stopping the run will be big for the Chargers and they have added depth. Kansas City has won four straight meetings in this series but this is a clean slate and almost the opposite of when they met last season as the Chargers are the healthy team, sans Joey Bosa who would have been a nonfactor anyway, and the Chiefs are the banged up squad. Despite all of the struggles and injuries last season, San Diego covered its last six road games, three of those where it was getting a touchdown or more and the Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when getting seven or more points. 10* (463) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Bears are another team people have already written off but they have a chance to be a surprise in the NFC. While Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season as only four players started all 16 games so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffry to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot thanks to some great offseason pickups. The big injury new for Houston is J.J. Watt who is banged up but plans to play Sunday. The real injury news though is on the offensive line where two starters are out and that could prove to be a big problem for newly acquired players Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. Houston made a nice run last season after a 2-5 start as it closed by going 7-2 and was able to back in to a division win because of the Colts injury issues. The Texans went 4-0 in the preseason which means nothing and going back, teams that went undefeated in the preseason and are home favorites in Week One are just 4-11-1 ATS the last 15. Conversely, the Bears went 0-3 in their first three preseason games when starters saw action and that is being taken into account way too much and adding value. Despite going 6-10 last season, the Bears went 5-3 on the road and covered six of their last seven. Houston is the biggest public consensus for Sunday and we will go against that here. 10* (467) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the JAGUARS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have to love going against the hype early in the season as that is what lines are made from, hype and expectations. This is most certainly the case with Green Bay which struggled to find any consistency but now are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though we can expect a highly motivated Packers team, high expectations can create pressure and the pressure is certainly on. While Green Bay used to have no one to give them much resistance, the Vikings are a team on the rise even without Teddy Bridgewater so winning the division is far from a guarantee. Green Bay does in fact have the talent to make a run but coming out of the gates as a big road favorite against an up and coming team is very aggressive. Jacksonville had arguably the best offseason of any team in the league and it came on the needed side. The Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the league last season but on signing day, they picked up defensive lineman Malik Jackson, safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Prince Amukamara. Additionally, they got linebacker Miles Jack and cornerback Jalen Ramsey via the draft not to mention the top pick last year, defensive end Dante Fowler who missed the season after tearing his ACL on the first day on mini-camp. Offensively, Jacksonville has the chance to be a very explosive group and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things together. Quarterback Bortles was ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards and second with 35 touchdowns last season. There is a reason Jacksonville has covered 12 of its last 17 season openers and that is because the expectations are always low in the eyes of the public and the oddsmakers have to adjust. In this case, it was an overadjustment. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued three years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Two years ago, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and last year, New England ended up pushing with the Steelers. This being said, Super bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-16 ATS over the last 19 games. What Carolina did during the regular season and even in the NFC Playoffs was pretty remarkable but it was done against a fairly easy schedule. The Panthers did beat Seattle on the road but that took a 28-yard touchdown pass in the final minute and they did not defeat any other team on the road that eventually made the playoffs. The Broncos lost their two quarterbacks from last season but it should not be much of a dropoff. Managing the game is the key and Trevor Siemian has the ability to do that. The Denver defense was No. 1 in total defense and No. 4 in scoring defense and it could be even better this season. As far as the line goes, the public has moved this number four points with Carolina now a field goal favorite on the road meaning it would be a double-digit favorite at home and that makes zero sense. Denver should be extremely motivated here to come out strong in defense of its Super Bowl win as well as not accepting the fact it is an underdog here at home. 10* (452) Denver Broncos

Public reaction and recent results are playing a big role in this Super Bowl line which is the case every year considering this is the most wagered on game across all sport by a wide margin. Carolina rolled through the playoffs with very impressive home wins as they destroyed Arizona after jumping up on Seattle 31-0 the previous week. Conversely, Denver escaped with a pair of close wins at home against Pittsburgh and New England so those games alone are going to inflate this line. The Panthers have just one loss this season which is a big reason they are a significant favorite but of course that one loss came away from home and of their seven wins, only one came against a playoff team when they scored a late touchdown to take care of the Seahawks. There is a very interesting dynamic in this game and it is based on recent results and how the linesmakers need to open and move lines based on those results. Since 2004, 15 teams have scored 40 or more points in a playoff game with another playoff game upcoming and the results have not been good for those teams. The team that scored 40 or more points has gone on to lose 9 of the next 15 playoff games outright while going just 2-12-1 ATS. One of those covers came in last year's Super Bowl which was just a yard away from being a different result while the other ATS win came back in 2010 when the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 in a game where Jay Cutler was lost to injury and Chicago was down to third string quarterback Caleb Hanie. Additionally, of those six outright follow up wins, that Green Bay win was the only one by more than four points. Denver is the 12th team in history to enter the Super Bowl with the top scoring defense in the NFL and 9 of the previous 11 left with an outright victory. Listening to the TV talking heads, many are shocked the line is this low and they are saying this one has the look of the Denver and Seattle Super Bowl from two years ago. That's what we like to hear. 10* (102) Denver Broncos

The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Cardinals being one of those teams. While it can be argued they escaped with the victory in overtime thanks to Green Bay never seeing the ball, the game really should have never gone into overtime. Arizona was certainly sloppy last week, most notably Carson Palmer who made some poor throws that led to two costly interceptions but he still completed 61 percent of his passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals bring in a different offense than what Seattle brought into Carolina as they can stretch it out more and have more balance as they were the only team in the regular season to finish in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense. Carolina built a huge lead last Sunday and barely held on while getting outgained by 108 yards as costly mistakes by the Seahawks on the wrong sides of the field did them in. The Cardinals won and covered their only game as an underdog this season and going back, they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss. Additionally, we play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (313) Arizona Cardinals

The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Patriots being one of those teams. The linesmakers were forced to make New England a favorite here knowing what sort of action would be coming in. The first look here is at the home underdog but this is a tough matchup for Denver now that the Patriots are healthy. The offensive line did a great job last week in protection, not allowing a single sack or hit, and it is the quick passing game that will give the Broncos fits this time around. Denver was pretty fortunate to win last week against a depleted Steelers team and the offense clearly cannot carry this team. The Patriots have a very underrated front seven and they are going to force Peyton Manning to win this game with his arm which will not happen. Over the last 30 yards, the No. 1 seed has been a home underdog in the Conference Championship and has lost all three times. While revenge isn't a big factor when it comes to big games like this, the Patriots are 11-1 ATS revenging a same season loss as a road favorite and that comes down to coaching. The home team has won and covered the six meetings in this series with Brady vs. Manning but the latter is not close to the same player from past meetings. 10* (311) New England Patriots

This line was on and off the board all week due to the Steelers injury situation and has been confirmed that both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out. The number reached nine in a couple places but settled back down to -7.5 and while we are on the wrong side of the key number of seven, it should not come into play here. Don't be surprised to see this one go up more by gametime so betting it early in the day is likely the right move. The absence of Williams last week against Cincinnati did not matter as the Steelers rushed for 167 yards on 29 carries (5.8 ypc) but things will be tougher here. The Broncos bring in the top ranked rushing defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc compared to the Bengals which allowed a full yard more per carry. One stat that came into play yesterday was the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Julian Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. We saw what a difference it made yesterday. For the Steelers, when Brown is off the field which was only 88 plays over the past couple of seasons, the Steelers average just 1.6 yppl. On the other side, we don't anticipate Peyton Manning to carry the offense but he is clearly as healthy as he has been all season and an improved running game will definitely help. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (308) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the SEAHAWKS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Seattle has no business being here as it was able to advance thanks to a missed 27-yard field goal from the Vikings. But in reality, the Seahawks played a great game in elements they are not accustomed to and I foresee them taking advantage of this opportunity. Offensively, it was a challenge and the weather did play a role in that which I did not think it would so it came down to the defenses and both played exceptional. Seattle allowed just three field goals, although it should have been four, and this defense continues to dominate as over their last six road games, they have allowed an average of 7.2 ppg and even more impressive, they have allowed an offensive touchdown only once in those six games. The Carolina offense goes as Cam Newton goes so shutting him down, or at least slowing him down, is the key for the Seahawks defense. That may be stating the obvious but we saw it in the first meeting this season in Seattle as they shut the Panthers down the majority of the game until the ferocious comeback by Carolina which pulled off the upset as a touchdown underdog. While this is a No. 1 vs. No. 6 matchup, it is far from that at this point in the season. Seattle falls into a great spot as we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers per game while the Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (305) Seattle Seahawks

This number is stuck on seven as of Wednesday afternoon and likely is not going to move until gameday when public money comes pouring in on the Cardinals. A big reason for that is they have been a great home team this year, or are they? Arizona blew away San Francisco and Green Bay but the other four wins were all within just one possession late in the game. The win over Green Bay is affecting the betting market as well as the Packers were destroyed by 30 points as they were never in it. We will see a better Green Bay performance here as the Packers finally woke up last week with a big win in Washington. The line is also on our side as high as it is as underdogs of at least seven points have gone 29-19 ATS (60.4 percent) during the postseason including a 17-9 ATS record (65.4 percent) during the Divisional Round. That record improves to 11-2 ATS (84.6 percent) when the favorite is getting more than 50 percent of the action. Additionally, road teams are 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 2005 in the Divisional Round when coming off a road win. Two of those three covers losses were by just 4.5 points combined (Baltimore by 3.5 points in 2010 against Pittsburgh and Washington by 1 point in 2005 against Seattle. Granted, all four game fall into this situation but this is one of only two games where major recent injuries are not coming into play. The Packers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after that first meeting in Week 16 and adjustments will be made to fix some of the problems that occurred. Going back, the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games while the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. 10* (303) Green Bay Packers

Kansas City is coming off its 11th straight win as it went to Houston last Saturday, returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and never looked back in a 30-0 victory. The score shows a domination but the Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 88 total yards as they were fortunate that Brian Hoyer played one of his worst games ever and took advantage of five Houston turnovers. The Chiefs take a big step up in class here as they head to New England to take on the Patriots and we are getting a good value line here. New England got a much needed week off to rest and heal up as well as getting a break following two losses to end the regular season. Both of those losses came on the road and the Patriots come in with a 7-1 home record. The lone loss came against the Eagles where they won the yardage battle by 179 yards but Philadelphia scored two touchdowns on special teams and another on a 99-yard interception return. The Patriots are getting Julian Edelman back which is a huge boost for the offense. To put it into perspective, the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. Here, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-16 ATS (69.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, New England is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 5.65 or fewer yppl and 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after being outgained by 150 or more ypg in its previous game. 10* (302) New England Patriots

This is a play on WASHINGTON for our NFL Game of the Year. Surprisingly, Washington is the lone home favorite in this year's Wild Card round and it might not even last considering that the Packers are, and will be in the postseason, a very public team. We played on Green Bay this past Sunday as it was trying to clinch the NFC North and it failed to do so at home no less. The Packers may have been better off with that loss as heading to Washington is arguably a better opportunity to win than playing Seattle in the first round but at this point, the Packers are just not a good football team. Green Bay has played only one bad game since the end of October as it is 3-3 in its last six games and one of those wins came on a Hail Mary and another came against Oakland in a game they lost the yardage battle by 79 yards. Washington meanwhile is peaking at the right time as it has won four straight games to claim the NFC East. The offense has been sensational over this stretch and can go toe-to-toe with the Packers if need be but that won't be necessary. While the Redskins yardage differential is not very good, finding ways to win is what counts and that is what they have been doing. They are 6-1 in their last seven home games, covering five of those and a win here likely means a cover. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (108) Washington Redskins

These teams met here just over a month ago and we are seeing a total that is filled with value as it is three points less now based on recent results. The Seahawks have gone under the total in four straight games as the defense was outstanding in three of those games while the offense didn't show up in the loss to the Rams. The Vikings meanwhile have been an under team all season, staying below the total in 11 of 16 games including the last one on Sunday against the Packers that decided the NFC North. While the Seahawks have been playing at a high level of late, they have been unusually inconsistent and while they held Minnesota to just seven points and 125 total yards in that first meeting, the Vikings will have a better gameplan this time around. Minnesota has averaged 31.8 ppg on offense since that Seattle game. Going back, the over is 9-2 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 7-0 to the over in their last seven games against teams averaging 4.5 ypc or more. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Seahawks last six games against teams with a winning record while the over is 16-6 in their last 22 games coming off a win over a divisional rival as an underdog .This total has already come down two points from its opener which signals a defensive battle but I expect the opposite on Sunday. 10* Over (103) Seattle Seahawks/(104) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on CINCINNATI for our Saturday Enforcer. This is the second meeting here in a month and the Bengals will be out to avenge a loss from that game. That was the game quarterback Andy Dalton was injured so there is definitely some added motivation even though the rivalry alone is sufficient. It is pretty common knowledge that Cincinnati has struggled during the postseason over the recent years but this is the best Bengals team during this stretch even though they come in on an average 4-4 run over the second half. Cincinnati actually outgained the Steelers in that loss while the other three losses came by just 3, 3 and 4 points. Dalton has not been declared out but has been downgraded to doubtful which means it is pretty much assured he is not going to play. A.J. McCarron has been very solid however and will be just fine here. Obviously the Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have a lot more expereience and its offense continues to roll but take away an interception return for a touchdown and Pittsburgh has averaged just 18 ppg in the first two meetings. Cincinnati hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the sixth-longest streak of postseason futility in NFL history and I really believe this is the best opportunity for to end, Dalton or no Dalton. Here, we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on HOUSTON for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting that the Chiefs won 27-20 before going on to lost five straight games. It has been quite the turnaround however as Kansas City enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL with a 10-game winning streak but this has to be one of the least dominant teams involved in a streak of this magnitude. The Chiefs are outgaining opponents by less than two ypg and a lot of that is because of an anemic offense that is ranked 27th overall. They make it up with a solid defense but even those rankings are not as good as those from Houston. The Texans won their last three games to win the AFC South and while those wins were all against poor teams, Houston owns quality wins over the Jets and Bengals and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 37.6 ypg. With Brian Hoyer back at quarterback, the Texans offense has an extra spark as he quietly had a solid season with a 91.4 quarterback rating while tossing 19 touchdowns and just seven picks. Houston has been outgained just once in its last nine games and while a deep playoff run is unlikely, the matchup here is a good one and getting home points makes it even stronger. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record while the Texans are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (102) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday night Primetime game. The NFC North Divisional title is on the line Sunday night between the Vikings and Packers. We played on them last week and they burnt us badly as they were demolished in Arizona but we will be backing them again this week at home. Minnesota meanwhile destroyed the Giants last Sunday night in a game the Giants had nothing to play for so these two recent results is keeping this line at a manageable number. This game is nothing new for Green Bay as it will play for the NFC North title in the regular-season finale for a third straight season after winning the first two. It has been an up and down season for the Packers and despite two home losses, they actually won the yardage battle in those games. The offense has looked shaky as Aaron Rodgers has at times looked uncomfortable but this is the stage he loves as he has never lost a home divisional game when coming off a loss and facing an opponent that is coming off a victory. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (326) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played against the Chiefs last week and will do so again this week as they continue to be overvalued. Sure, Kansas City has won nine straight games but has done so in ugly fashion as it has outgained only one opponent by more than 82 yards and the Chiefs have actually been outgained in four of their last five games. While there is more on the line for Kansas City, this is a big game for Oakland as a win would put the Raiders at 8-8 for the first time since 2011. On the season, Oakland is getting outgained by just 23.2 ypg and of their eight losses, four have come by less than what it is getting here. Additionally, the Raiders have the benefit of extra rest following their last game which was last Thursday. Here, we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 or more ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Raiders are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (315) Oakland Raiders

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Rams are the lone road favorite with no playoff implications but their upset win last Sunday at Seattle coupled with the season long problems for San Francisco has put them in a rare road favorite role. St. Louis has won and covered three straight games while the 49ers have lost three in a row both straight up and against the number putting the home team in a great contrarian spot here. The real kicker is that despite the three straight victories, the Rams were outgained in all three games and have been outgained in seven straight games. San Francisco meanwhile has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Here, we play against favorites after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 59-27 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win against a division rival. 10* (330) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. Detroit has won two straight games and five of its last seven and it could be even better if not for that Green Bay successful Hail Mary a few weeks back. The Lions are just 2-5 on the road after finishing .500 at home. Chicago is coming off a win at Tampa Bay last week to bring in an identical 6-9 record as the Lions in a fight to stay out of the NFC North basement. We are catching a smaller than anticipated line because the Bears are just 1-6 at home including losses in four straight. Those all came by three points or less or in overtime, three coming against teams that will be in the postseason. The Bears will be out for some major payback as they have lost the last five meetings in this series. Additionally, they will look to avoid back-to-back double-digit losing seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (322) Chicago Bears

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Jets are coming off a huge win last week against the Patriots and a win here gets them into the playoffs. This line is inflated because of that as New York is 4-3 on the road while the Bills bring in an identical home record. While it was a disappointing season for Buffalo, getting back to .500 would be a solid achievement and of course, Rex Ryan would like nothing more than to prevent his former employers from making into the playoffs. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record while the Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bills

There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Patriots lost last week in New York to prevent them from clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs but a win in Miami still gets them that goal. Winning and covering are two different things however. New England is clearly the superior team in this matchup but that has been the case for a while in this series yet the Patriots have struggled here the last three years including two outright losses and a win by just seven points. Miami would like the season on a high note and snap a three-game skid. New England was favored by just four points more at home against Tennessee which shows the overinflation of this number. Miami falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Miami Dolphins

Playoff implications are on the line tonight in Denver for both the Broncos and Bengals. Because of the Steelers loss yesterday, Cincinnati clinched the AFC North and still has a fighting chance for a No. 1 seed. While it may have been unheard of a few weeks ago, but the Broncos can actually miss the playoffs. That means this game means even more to Denver which can clinch a playoff berth with a win but would fall behind the Chiefs and Jets to No. 6 with a loss. Denver could finish anywhere from the top seed at 12-4 to out of the playoffs if the Steelers also finish 10-6 which is very possible as they play Cleveland next week. After three consecutive victories, the Broncos have dropped two straight despite winning the yardage battle in both. As a matter of fact, Denver has won the yardage battle in all five games quarterback Brock Osweiler has started. The Bengals won in San Francisco last Sunday and heading out west again puts them in a tough spot. This will be the first real test for quarterback A.J. McCarron who was solid against the 49ers, ranked last in ypa, but now faces a Broncos defense ranked first in that category. Denver falls into a great situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Denver is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. 10* (132) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Star Attraction. The Cardinals are still in position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC but they need to win out while the Panthers would have to lose their final two games. Still, Arizona has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye with a win here but Green Bay is not going to just roll over. The Packers have won three straight games to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North by a game and have clinched a playoff spot no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Packers still have a shot at a first round bye and they obviously have to win here to keep the hope alive going into Week 17. It's no surprise that the Cardinals have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but their passing defense has been at the middle of the pack. Last week, the Cardinals defense suffered a huge blow when they lost safety Tyrann Mathieu for the season to a torn ACL. That is a big edge for Green Bay which has to tale advantage of the Arizona secondary. The passing game is part of a solid situation for Green Bay as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Packers are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals have failed to cover their last four games against winning teams. 10* (125) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BROWNS for our NFL Game of the week. Kansas City is the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a row and then go on an eight-game winning streak and as impressive as that sounds, I am far from sold. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their last four games including getting out-totaled last week in Baltimore by 89 yards despite a 20-point win. Turnovers have been the difference and those are nearly impossible to handicap and the turnover differentials puts Kansas City into a negative situation as explained later. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss at Seattle last week but it was in a no win situation there as the Seahawks are starting to peak while the Browns were coming off three straight home games. The Chiefs have been double-digit home favorites twice this season and they failed to cover both times, losing one outright against the Bears. The turnover situation as mentioned is to play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (117) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the FALCONS for our Sunday Enforcer. As the public loads up on Carolina, we will gladly go against the Panthers again this week as they are in a situation that playing against undefeated teams this late in the season has performed exceptional. We played against Carolina last week and we were rewarded by a Giants massive comeback and late cover which was the second straight road game the Panthers won by just a field goal. While a win clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the game is just as big for the Falcons, if not bigger. While the chances are slim, Atlanta is still alive for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC but it does need help along the way. The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a win last week against Jacksonville. Four of those losses came by four points or fewer so the streak was arguably skewed. The good news is that this is an early game and the team they are chasing, the Vikings, do not play until Sunday night. This is a big revenge game as well for Atlanta which got hammered at Carolina just two weeks ago 38-0. Teams that are undefeated after 13 or more games have covered just once in 13 games going back close to 40 year. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games while the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (110) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Do the Patriots really deserve to be favored here? Records will say yes as will the public backing but the fact of the matter is that the Jets are arguably just as good as New England at this stage of the season. New York has won four straight games to move up in the playoff standings and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by close to 50 ypg. The Patriots meanwhile are outgaining opponents by 67.6 ypg which is not far off from the Jets. New England is a win away from clinching the top spot in the AFC which is surely a big deal but the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot as they are currently on the outside looking in. That is a tough pill to swallow considering the Jets have won four straight games but slipped from the AFC's sixth seed down to its seventh on account of Pittsburgh's triumph over Denver, which gave the Steelers a tie-breaking superior record against common opponents. New England has a negative situation on its side as we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. New England is 0-6 ATS in it last six games after allowing 16 points or fewer in its last game while the Jets have covered four of their last five games against winning teams. 10* (122) New York Jets

This is a play on the RAVENS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are surging as they have overtaken the Jets in the AFC Wild Card race thanks to a win over Denver last week. Pittsburgh has now won three straight games and the offense continues to pile up the points as it has scored 30 or more points in six straight games, five of which resulted in victories. But with that comes a price to pay as the Steelers are now massive road favorites over their biggest rival and it is definitely an overadjustment. Baltimore has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and are banged up all over the place but if there is one game it wants to win, this is certainly the one. This is the Ravens Super Bowl and they would like nothing more than to squash the Steelers playoff hopes. Despite losses in four of six games, the Ravens have won the yardage battle four times including in three of those losses and they have a shot to win the stats again this week. With nothing to lose, the Ravens should take plenty of shots deep with Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens regardless of who is playing quarterback. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Baltimore Ravens

We waited on this game for a few reasons, the most important being waiting for a line move but unfortunately that did not come. However, that actually bodes well in this case as while we are not seeing a reverse line move, we are seeing no line movement despite the Redskins getting pounded the public. This is an elimination game for Philadelphia as a loss means it is done while a win means that it is back into a first place tie in the NFC East and then control its own destiny. If the Redskins lose Saturday, they can still make the playoffs by beating the Cowboys next week at AT&T Stadium but would need the Eagles to lose to the Giants as well. The Redskins have won two straight games, the first time all season they have won consecutive games and one of those came at home where they finished 6-2 but are just 1-5 on the highway. The Eagles home field edge has not been great this season for sure but they fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in a game involving two teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 49-28 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game while Philadelphia is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 35 points or more last game. 10* (104) Philadelphia Eagles

Two teams out of playoff contention square off in a divisional matchup Thursday as San Diego heads to Oakland following an emotion win in what could have been its last game in the city of San Diego. Normally, that could spell a letdown but in this case, the Chargers have momentum in a game they want to win. Oakland took the first meeting in San Diego despite the Chargers winning the yardage battle and yet they are getting disadvantaged with this line. Divisional games that have two fairly equal teams playing tend to be a pickem game on a neutral field so the home team is typically a favorite by a field goal but the Raiders are well above that for no apparent reason. Despite a 4-10 record, the Chargers are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 20 ypg as they have suffered close losses and other losses where they have outgained their opponent. The Chargers have covered four straight road games while the Raiders have covered just once in their last five home games and we have a situation on our side where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (101) San Diego Chargers

Unfortunately for the Saints, their playoff hopes were closed yesterday with wins by the Vikings and Seahawks so while the motivation may not be as high as normal, playing at home keeps us on their side. New Orleans is 3-3 at home with one loss coming against undefeated Carolina by a field goal in its last home game and another coming against Tennessee in overtime. The Saints have thrived in these situations as they have covered six of their last eight Monday night games. The Lions had a three-game winning streak to end the month of November to slightly get back into the playoff picture but they have dropped their last two games, the first being the Hail Mary defeat to the Packers and that has completely deflated them. That certainly helps the New Orleans being officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Lions are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play against Monday night road teams with a winning percentage of .650 or worse that are coming off a loss as a favorite of a touchdown or more going up against teams coming off a win in non-divisional games. This situation is 17-3 ATS (85 percent) since 1990. And speaking of Monday nights, there is another fantastic situation on the New Orleans side as we play on favorites that are coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (332) New Orleans Saints

This game was moved to primetime with the flex schedule and that greatly benefits the Eagles. Left for dead after a blowout loss on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia has won two straight games and while far from dominating, this team needed a boost of confidence. The Eagles are tied with the Redskins and Giants in the NFC East so there is still plenty to lay for. Arizona has been playing well all season and is currently riding a seven-game winning streak. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the NFC West with a victory but it will not come easy here. They defeated the Eagles at home last season but were outgained by 121 yards as Philadelphia racked up 521 yards of offense. While there has been talk about how Sam Bradford does not fit well into this offense but it needs to be noted that the Eagles are 6-2 in games he's started and finished. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that blitzes the most in the league but he has a very quick release and has been sacked only once this season when seeing a blitz. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Cardinals are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (318) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the Denver Broncos for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Broncos are coming off their first loss with Brock Osweiler after winning his first three starts. The offense has been average at time but despite the loss last week, they outgained Oakland by 184 total yards as the offense generated 310 yards but the defense has been the story which has been the case all season. Denver allowed just 126 yards last week and for the season, the Broncos are allowing an average of 272.5 ypg, by far the best in the league while allowing 17.3 ppg, also tops in the NFL. The Steelers are allowing nearly 100 yards more per game even though the point total has been solid. Overall, these teams are relatively equal which makes this spread too high with a lot of that due to the fact of Pittsburgh defeating Cincinnati last week by 13 points but was outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, the Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while the Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (327) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the Atlanta Falcons for our NFL Game of the Year. It has been quite the tumble for Atlanta which has lost six straight games after a 5-1 start. Obviously last week was the worst of the bunch as they fell 38-0 to Carolina, the best team in the NFL and prior to that, four of the previous five losses were by four points or less. Losing is losing and there should be no excuses but at 6-7, the Falcons are still not out of the playoff picture although it is bleak which makes this a must win game. Jacksonville has been favored in each of its last four true home games (not counting Buffalo in London) and it split those. The Jaguars destroyed the Colts last week but they were cooked after Matt Hasselbeck went down. They are now just a game out of the AFC South so this is a big game for them as well. This, this is not a favorable spot and they are overvalued. Atlanta has dropped nine straight games against the number which makes this a huge contrarian value play. Atlanta falls into a simple yet phenomenal situation where we play on road teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games coming off a road loss by 21 or more points while Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against NFC opponents. 10* (307) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the New York Giants for our Sunday Enforcer. We played against Carolina two games ago as it failed to cover but snuck out a win at New Orleans. The Panthers bounced back last week to get back to dominating as they defeated Atlanta 38-0 in a game that was over before it started. They face another road test this week against the Giants which are fighting for a divisional title following a win over Miami on Monday night. We won with the Giants then and this is a much better team than the record shows. As mentioned last week, close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 11-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. That tells a lot. While Carolina is the best team in the NFL, the Giants cannot be discounted here as they are getting a ton of value as they are catching the same number of points that the Saints did at home and New York is the better team. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (320) New York Giants

We waited on this game hoping to get a line move our way but that likely will not happen until later in the day toward gametime. The Jets are a huge public consensus play this week and while the line has moved slightly, it has not moved as much as expected and that is actually working in our favor as New York will get loaded up even more. The Jets are fighting for a playoff position at 8-5 following three straight victories but now comes in as a road favorite for the fourth consecutive time. Two of those games resulted in losses while the third should have been a loss against the Giants. The first road win over the Colts was solid but they won the yardage battle by just one yard and the other road win was a win in London over the Dolphins. Despite a 4-9 record, Dallas is getting outgained by just nine ypg on the season and a few bounces its way, the record could be better. The Cowboys blew a big lead against Atlanta early in the season, lost two games in overtime while losing three other games by a single possession. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 9 points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record while the Cowboys are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after a loss by 14 or more points. 10* (304) Dallas Cowboys

We have seen some pretty dull Thursday night games the last couple months as of the last eight games, seven have stayed below the total. The only one that went over the number was the Green Bay/Detroit game because of that Hail Mary which we were certainly fortunate to cash. While Tampa Bay and St. Louis do not scream offense when you think about them, the matchup on both sides should provide the offenses a boost. A key is actually the running game on each side as Todd Gurley is coming off a monster game and Doug Martin is having a great bounce back season. The Rams average 4.9 ypc while the Buccaneers average 4.8 ypg and those rushing attacks will open up the passing game. Last week, the Saints defense held the Buccaneers to 17 points and 291 yards, both the lowest against the Saints all season so that is a good indicator of a bounceback. In what may seen even more of getting another low scoring game here is the fact that Tampa Bay has gone under the total in three straight games while St. Louis has gone under the total in four straight games. Those are keeping the number down however. We have a great situation for the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 135-83 (61.9 percent) since 1983. 10* Over (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(302) St. Louis Rams

With Philadelphia and Washington both winning Sunday, the Giants can ill-afford a loss to fall a game back and with a brutal upcoming schedule, this has become a must win contest. New York has dropped three straight games by a combined 10 points and the close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 10-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. Miami is coming off an ugly win against Baltimore and while it has gone 4-4 over its last eight games, it has been outgained in six straight games by an average of 124.5 ypg. The Dolphins are just 2-3 at home so the home field edge is very small and their 0-2 ATS record as home underdogs and their 1-7 ATS record in their last eight home games overall show what little fight there is. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and they fall into an excellent situation as we play on road teams in the second half of the season that possess a losing record where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost three out of their last four games. This situation is 105-62 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (133) New York Giants

Not that long ago, the Patriots were on track to make another run at an undefeated season but injuries started taking their toll and now at 10-2, New England is in trouble by many. This team is just fine despite two straight losses and honestly, the Patriots could still be 12-0. They lost in overtime on a pretty bad call against the Broncos and then last week they outgained the Eagles by 179 total yards and lost because of two special teams touchdowns and a pick six. New England has not lost three straight games since 2002 as it is a perfect 4-0 since then following consecutive losses. Houston is making a run at the AFC South as it is tied with the Colts at 6-6 as it ran off a four-game winning streak prior to losing in Buffalo last week. The Texans had solid wins over Cincinnati and New York but they are not going to be sneaking up on anyone, especially a team with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that have lost two straight games. Injuries have no doubt hurt New England on offense but last week actually helped them going forward and now with two weeks of preparation, this is where New England can be at its best. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (125) New England Patriots

This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders lost a tough one last week but it was clearly their own fault. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. They outgained the Chiefs by 129 total yards and it was the second straight game where they won the yardage battle by a big margin. Oakland is now 5-7 and the playoffs are looking dim but there will be no quit against their rival in this one. Denver is 3-0 with Brock Osweiler under center and he is doing just enough to win as he has tallied 17 points twice while getting a fortunate break against the Patriots that led to 13 late points so it could have been another 17 points scored. The Broncos do look better as they are more balanced but the fact of the matter is that they are averaging just over 22 ppg and are being asked to lay an overpriced number. Part of the reason is that Oakland hasn't covered in this series since September, 2011 which is a span of nine games. That changes this week as the Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on ST. LOUIS for our NFL Game of the Week. Here we have two teams with the same record but it is the road team that is the favorite and that should not be the case. Granted, the recent results differ but this is an awful situation for Detroit. The Lions won their third straight game with a rout over Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day and it should have been four wins if not for a Green Bay successful Hail Mary last Thursday night. Coming off a loss like that is tough to bounce back from and Detroit was actually thinking a 9-7 record could be a possibility to make the playoffs but that is now shot. Lastly, teams coming off three straight home games and are then favored on the road have been horrible. St. Louis has lost five straight but two of those were by three points, both on the road. And the last two losses have come against Cincinnati and Arizona which are a combined 20-4. The Rams are 3-3 at home and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Not many teams have been worse this time of year as the Lions are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December. The Rams fall into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. The Rams snap their skid this week. 10* (116) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. This line is a complete overreaction to what was witnessed last week on the scoreboard. The Chiefs easily defeated the Raiders 34-20 but looking deeper, it was far from easy. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. Kansas City was outgained by 129 yards and on the season, the Chiefs are getting outgained by four ypg. San Diego lost by 14 points against Denver but was outgained by just 21 yards and despite being 3-9, the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 10 yards per game. They have been much more efficient on the road as has quarterback Philip Rivers as in his previous three road games, Rivers has thrown for 1,104 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. So because of the scores from last week, the Chiefs are now a double-digit favorite over San Diego. In addition to that, Kansas City has won and covered six straight games which is also adding to the overadjustment. The Chargers will be out for revenge from the first loss this season and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 and playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) San Diego Chargers

This is a big number to lay down but Arizona has been incredible at home and I expect that to continue. The Cardinals are coming off a stretch of four road games in a five-game stretch and they won them all including a solid win at Seattle to make it six straight wins overall. While the road has been very kind to Minnesota, it does not include a quality win. Atlanta is in a swoon, Oakland is improved but average, and Chicago and Detroit are both poor. Two games separate these teams but the yardage differentials tell a different story. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season by 26.8 ypg while Arizona is outgaining opponents by 102.7 ypg and that is a significant variance between the two teams. The Vikings defense was exposed last week against Seattle and that should continue here as the unit is extremely banged up. They are especially thinned out at safety, where Harrison Smith (questionable), Andrew Sendejo (questionable) and Antone Exum (placed on IR) are ailing. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer ranks first in the NFC in multiple stat categories, including passing yards (3,693), passing TDs (29) and passer rating (106.3). Head coach Bruce Arians is 18-7 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. 10* (102) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on NEW ORLEANS for our NFL Game of the Month. With New England's loss last weekend, Carolina is now the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL and that comes with a price as we can see here. Being favored on the road is one thing but being favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival is another thing. New Orleans has dropped three straight games and has fallen out of the playoff picture but a win here to ruin the Panthers perfect season would be huge for them. In addition to the straight up runs, Carolina has covered four straight games while New Orleans has failed to cover those last three and that is also playing into this number. Going back, the Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall against winning teams. New Orleans falls into a fantastic situation as well as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (362) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. Kansas City was left for dead after a 15 start but the Chiefs have run off five straight wins to get right back in the playoff hunt. Last week, they took out a very improved Buffalo team but the weather played a role as the Bills actually won the yardage battle. Kansas City has also covered the last five games. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a road win last week at Tennessee thanks to a phantom penalty but the Raiders deserved to win as they outgained the Titans by 158 total yards. That snapped a three-game slide and Oakland is still alive in the Wild Card race. Four of their losses have come by six points or less so things could actually be even better for one of the most improved teams in the league. Kansas City is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season and it falls into a negative situation. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (374) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for our Sunday Star Attraction. San Diego picked up a much needed victory last week at Jacksonville and while it won't get any style points for it, it was necessary for the psyche of the team. The Chargers had lost six straight games prior to that and now they will be out for their first winning streak of the season against a hated divisional rival. They have dropped four straight at home and while the San Diego home field edge is pretty minute, they are catching Denver at the perfect time. The Broncos are coming off a big come-from-behind victory against New England last week in overtime so this is the perfect opportunity for a letdown even though this is a divisional game. Those types of wins are tough to recover from and that will be the case again here. The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Denver falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (372) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on MIAMI for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. It has been a very inconsistent season for Miami as it has dropped four of its last five games following a two-game winning streak to start the tenure of head coach Dan Carpenter. All four of the recent losses came against teams still alive for the playoffs so it has been a very difficult stretch of games. Baltimore has flat out been a mess all season even though it is coming off a win last week against Cleveland on a walk-off blocked field goal for a touchdown. That will be a tough game to recover from knowing there is no hope for the playoffs and playing without their top quarterback, top running back and top wide receiver. The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (360) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The term "must win game" is thrown around a lot this time of year and Atlanta finds itself directly in that situation. The Falcons have lost four straight and five of their last six games after a 5-0 start and a lot of the issues have been simply bad luck. Three of the losses have been by three points or less including a home overtime loss to these Buccaneers so they would like nothing more than to return the favor. Tampa Bay lost at Indianapolis last week to fall to 5-6 and while this is considered a must win for them as well, getting to the playoffs with six losses already likely will not happen. Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses while Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Additionally, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons break their skid here. 10* (367) Atlanta Falcons

It has been a pretty tough month for the Packers which went from an undefeated record at 6-0 and a lead in the NFC North to a 7-4 record and now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the conference. The division is still within grasp but laying points on the road with the way it is playing is tough to do but we do expect the offense to do much better than what took place in the first meeting three weeks ago. Green Bay managed just 16 points but did put up 372 yards in the defeat which was similar to last week against the Bears where they put up 365 yards and scored only 13 points. While the Lions defense has been great the last three weeks, this is still a very inconsistent unit. On the other side, under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions are closer to a balanced offense. They ran the ball 29.4 percent of the time in the first seven games but with a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Lions are still playing the preferred up-tempo style that suits quarterback Matt Stafford best. They broke out for 45 points last Thursday as Stafford was as sharp as he has been all season, and he will get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday. Green Bay falls into a solid totals situation as we play the over involving road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* Over (301) Green Bay Packers/(302) Detroit Lions

We have seen some duds on Monday night of late with little offensive action but that should change tonight as we have two teams out of playoff contention facing off. Baltimore is coming off a 2-11 homestand but suffered another pair of tough injuries as quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett were both lost for the season and while that could hurt the offense, the opposing defense won't show much resistance. Cleveland meanwhile has lost five straight games and while the offense did little to help, getting Josh McCown back behind center will help immensely as Johnny Manziel was garbage. Now back to the defenses as these are two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as Baltimore is allowing 24.9 ppg and Cleveland is allowing 27.7 ppg, 23rd and 30th respectively in the NFL. Cleveland falls into a very high scoring situation as we play the over involving home teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the Browns four home games this season while the over is 5-0 in the Ravens last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (275) Baltimore Ravens/(276) Cleveland Browns

While it was far from dominating, the Broncos showed they can win without Peyton Manning as Brock Osweiler was very impressive in his first career start. He was 20-27 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he will face a much tougher defense this week, the fact he got that first start out of the way can be considered bigger. The Denver defense is the reason it is 8-2 as Manning has been a shell of his former self and that defense has a chance to keep the Patriots grounded as they continue to deal with a load of injuries. Give New England credit for doing what it is doing with a huge injury list but this will be a big road test for sure. The schedule has been very favorable of late for the Patriots as four of their last five games have been at home and the lone road game could have and arguably should have resulted in a loss to the Giants. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Denver is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Look for the Broncos to put an end to the Patriots undefeated season. 10* (274) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NY GIANTS for our NFL Game of the Week. With what took place over Thanksgiving, this has turned into a monumental game for the Giants. Philadelphia got crushed again while Dallas lost Tony Romo for the rest of the season so a victory here puts them two games clear of the Eagles and Redskins and it becomes their division to lose. New York is the clear cut favorite right now and having a two-game lead with five games left, including only one divisional game, would be huge. Washington got blown out for the third time in five games last week and while it returns home with a 4-1 record, this is not the worst time to face the Giants to try and break their five-game skid against them. The Redskins have gone 2-4 in their last six games and the numbers have been worse as they have been outgained by at least 124 yards in five of those. The Giants fall into a great spot where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Giants are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Redskins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 14 points. 10* (259) New York Giants

This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings had a great run going where they had won five straight games but then ran into a buzzsaw last Sunday at home against the Packers. The defense allowed its highest point total of the season and things won't get any easier here against a desperate Falcons team. Minnesota has won three straight games on the road but none of those were against teams with a winning record. After opening the season 5-0, the Flacons have dropped four of their last five games including three straight to fall out of the NFC South Division race. Despite those four losses in five games, Atlanta has outgained the opponent in four of those games with the lone negative differential being just -16 yards. The Falcons have lost their last two home games but both were by just three points against two .500 teams. Despite being just a game worse than Minnesota, this line is much shorter than it should be as the Falcons are not getting much credit for home field. A big reason is the recent successful Minnesota ATS run while Atlanta has failed to cover in six straight games. A win here likely means a cover and we will grab the Falcons in what is definitely considered a must win to remain in the playoff hunt. 10* (254) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on BUFFALO for ur Sunday ultimate Underdog. The Bills lost a tough game against New England Monday night as they were outgained by just 37 total yards and actually held New England to season lows in both yards and points. At 5-5, Buffalo is tied with three other teams for the second AFC Wild Card spot and while a loss would not knock them too far out, a win would be huge. And we aren't even asking the Bills to win, although an outright win would not be surprising, as they are catching a number that is inflated because of the Chiefs recent run. Kansas City is one of those 5-5 teams and the reason the line is so big is due to their four-game winning streak, all coming by at least 10 points. In their most recent home game, they were favored by a field goal over the 4-7 Lions and are now at least double that now against a much better team. The defense has risen to the occasion but Buffalo has a big play offense that was shut down last week as quarterback Tyrod Taylor was far from 100 percent. He is fine now though and going back, the Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. They also fall into a simple yet effective situation where we play on road teams off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (263) Buffalo Bills

We won with the Packers this past Sunday against the Vikings and while it was not a thing of beauty, a win is a win and it was a much needed victory to stop the bleeding of a three-game losing streak. Now Green Bay will be out to avoid losing two straight games at home which has happened only once since 2009 and it needs to be pointed out that Aaron Rodgers did not play as he was injured. Rodgers has not lost two straight home games since 2008, his first year as the Packers starting quarterback. Chicago lost a tough game to the Broncos on a failed two-point conversion which snapped a two-game winning streak and now the Bears have to hit the road on short rest. Surprisingly, the defense has played at a high level of late, allowing 19, 13 and 17 points the last three weeks but now comes the biggest test of the bunch. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after having won two out of their last three games while Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road win. While this is considered a big rivalry, the Packers have won 12 of the lat 14 meetings and they keep it rolling here with another big victory. 10* (110) Green Bay Packers

After just a couple series, you could see the difference with Tony Romo in at quarterback with the Cowboys and they are far from out of it in the NFC East. He finished with two interceptions and had an average 83.7 quarterback rating but it was his first game after missing seven games and it is obvious he gives the Cowboys a chance to win every week. Speaking of winning every week, that is what Carolina has done all season. Winning is most important but it is hard to ignore the fact that the Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL. Four of their last five games have been at home with the lone road game coming at lowly Tennessee. There is a very interesting comparison between these two teams as the Panthers have not lost a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2014 NFL Season, a span of 14 straight games. Just like the Cowboys, they had gone winless in the seven previous games before starting their streak. Dallas has won seven straight regular season games with Romo under center and going back to the start of last season, the Cowboys are 15-3 in their last 18 regular season game when Romo starts. The Panthers are just the second team in NFL history to start 10-0 and open its next game as an underdog and that is a big reason Carolina is already getting over three-quarters of the action early in the week. Going back, Dallas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after having lost three out of their last four games. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys

The Lions have won two straight games and bring some momentum in Thanksgiving Day. While their season is long gone, it is pretty clear they are out to win still and while the offense has been below average the last four games, they catch the Eagles at the perfect time. Or in my opinion, the wrong time. Philadelphia is in real trouble following a bad home loss to the Buccaneers, its second straight loss, but the NFC East is still wide open and there is time for the Eagles to recover. While Mark Sanchez had an up and down game, Matt Stafford has been average pretty much all season. Here are some surprising numbers. Both entered Sunday with 37 wins, but Sanchez had an 86.6 passer rating compared with Stafford's 83.7 rating. Stafford is in 0-2 in the playoffs and Sanchez is 4-2, including two trips to the AFC championship. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, there have been some bad breaks along the way for the Eagles and after an embarrassing loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last decade, that is the time players step up. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 gamers after allowing 40 or more points while the Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following two or more consecutive wins. 10* (105) Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills picked up a much needed win last Thursday over the Jets to get back over .500 for the first time since Week Five but most are not giving them a chance to stay there very long. New England is 9-0 and continues to seemingly run on cruise control although they were given a gift last week against the Giants. Injuries continue to be a problem though and they keep getting worse as the Patriots are without Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. These are huge blows offensively and we can look back at the first meeting and what their absences mean. Lewis (138) and Edelman (109) accounted for 247 of New England's 507 total yards (48.7 percent) and scored three touchdowns. The Bills are healthy on offense and can keep up in this one against a New England defense that has looked good at times but it very average. The Bills rank sixth in the NFL, averaging 25.7 ppg which is on pace to be their highest season total since 1991 (28.6 ppg). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven of his games this season and he is the only quarterback completing better than 70 percent of his throws. LeSean McCoy is at full strength and on the season, Buffalo is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per rush, which is second in the NFL behind the Steelers (3.2). Buffalo has two awesome situations on its side. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on ARIZONA for our Sunday night Primetime. Trying to figure out which Bengals team is true, the one that went 8-0 or the one we saw last week, is a difficult task. I think they are a little in-between as they certainly are not as bad as they were last week but they are not as good as their first eight-game record indicated. Now things get extremely tough as Cincinnati head to Arizona to face one of the best teams in the league. They have played only two teams that currently possess a winning record and this is the best one yet. Arizona is 7-2 and last week was a great indication of the makeup of this team. The Cardinals blew a 19-0 lead and while most teams would have folded, Arizona fought harder and came away with the win. They have outgained seven of nine opponents, including both losses as turnovers did them in, and overall they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in the NFL. This is just the second home game in six weeks so this place will be going nuts come Sunday night. Here, we play on home teams coming off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages at .750 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on GREEN BAY for our Sunday Enforcer. After another loss, people are starting to give up on the Packers but this week it could be do or die. Green Bay dropped its third straight game with a home loss against the Lions despite winning the yardage battle by 85 yards. Now the Packers hit the road again to face one of the hottest teams in the league but it is a series they have owned. Aaron Rodgers has looked lost the last three games and while teams change, the Vikings are one of his favorite opponents to face. Minnesota has won five straight games to move to 7-2 overall and into first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered an amazing eight straight games and they are doing it by not even being dominant. They have been outgained in five of their nine games and with the exception of a domination in Detroit, the other three plus yardage variances were just 27, 22 and 14 yards. Here, we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 divisional games and 23-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough start for the Chargers as they are 2-7 overall following a current five-game losing streak. They are so much better than the record shows however as they have been close to winning all but one of their losses and they have been outgained only twice in nine games overall. San Diego has lost three straight games at home after opening 2-0 and it is in a great spot to get back into the win column. Kansas City is coming off an upset win at Denver last week but clearly the Broncos were not the same Broncos. The Chiefs have now won and covered three straight games and just like that, they are now being placed as road favorites. This is based on records and nothing else. The Chiefs are getting outgained overall on the season by a couple yards while San Diego is +41.8 in yardage differential. Kansas City falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (474) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on DALLAS for our NFL Game of the Week. The losing streak has reached seven games for the Cowboys after falling to Tampa Bay 10-6 last week. It shows what the lack of a quality quarterback can do but at the same time, Dallas was in all but one of those games so a couple breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. Tony Romo is back this week which is a big spark for the offense and it comes at the right time as they can not afford many more losses. Miami pulled off the upset at Philadelphia last week despite getting outgained by 147 total yards. That was the end of a three-game roadtrip and the schedule this season has been tough so far with just two true home games prior to this week. The home field advantage down here is not great however. At 4-5, Miami is still hanging around for a playoff spot but the upcoming schedule is brutal. Dallas has Carolina on deck Thanksgiving which makes this game even more important for the Cowboys which fall into a great situation. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following a win by three points or less. 10* (455) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the NY JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets opened the season 4-1 but have dropped three of their last four games including a tough loss against former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills last Thursday. This is still a very solid team and this is a perfect opportunity for the defense to get back no track after a few rough games. At 5-4, they are right in the thick of the playoff picture but this is a game they cannot lose as the rest of the schedule is extremely difficult. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center after thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand. Houston upset the Bengals this past Monday and now has to play on short rest against a team on extended rest. The Texans are tied with the Colts for first place in the AFC South so this is obviously a big game as well but having T.J. Yates is certainly not ideal. The defense has flexed its muscles the last two weeks but that changes here. The Jets have a solid situation on their side as we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (461) New York Jets

The under is 4-0-1 the last five Thursday night NFL games and while past outcomes do not predict future results, I think we are due for a shootout here. Neither Tennessee nor Jacksonville are known for their potent offenses but both are capable especially going up against these opposing defenses. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has not put up eye-popping numbers but he has a quarterback rating of 98.3 which is good for ninth best in the NFL and he is clearly getting more comfortable. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in opposing quarterback rating at 99.7 and the Jaguars have given up their fair share of points as they have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season and have given up an average of 28.3 ppg. On the other side, Blake Bortles has not been nearly as efficient but he too has improved as the season has gone on. While the Titans defense is solid in yards allowed, they are allowing a passer rating of 95.1 to the opposition, which is 22nd in the NFL. Both possess pretty poor rushing offenses so we should see a lot of passing Thursday night. Overall, the teams are a combined 11-7 to the over and we are getting a very reasonable number here. The over is 13-6 in the Titans last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 6-2 in the Jaguars last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (309) Tennessee Titans/(310) Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite a losing record on the season, Houston is outgaining their opponents by an average of 18.5 ypg and even with all of the inconsistencies, the Texans are just a half -game of the Colts in the AFC South. Houston is coming off a win over Tennessee in its last game, two weeks ago. On Sunday, Carolina and New England were able to keep their perfect records alive and it will be up to Cincinnati to do the same tonight. A pair of bookend wins over Oakland and Cleveland saw domination on the stat sheet but the six games in-between had the Bengals just +28 total yards in the positive against opponents. Even more on our side is that fact that Cincinnati has yet to fail to cover a game and that is running this number up with the Monday night public going all-in on the home favorite. The Texans fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 ypc or less going up against teams allowing 4.5 ypc or more, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (275) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GIANTS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. The Patriots are rolling and their mission to go undefeated remains intact following a win over Washington last week. That was the last of three straight home games which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. Laying points on the road is one thing but laying this many points is absurd. Basically, with a three-point edge for home field, New England would be a 13-5-point favorite at home against the Giants, the same number they were laying against the Redskins last week and that simply does not jive. The Giants have been off and on this season as they are 5-4 following a road win over Tampa Bay last week, their second straight road game. They are finding ways to win as they have been outgained in eight of nine games which is usually a bad trend to have and they could easily be 7-2 right now if not for late losses against Dallas, Atlanta and New Orleans. Here, we play against road favorites that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 90-50 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. As mentioned, the Patriots are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (272) New York Giants

This is a play on the RAIDERS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders are arguably one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. The numbers are not overly great as they are getting outgained overall on the season but they are 4-4 with three of those losses coming by a combined 11 points so things could be better than their 4-4 record shows. Oakland has the playmakers that they have not had in recent years and quarterback Derek Carr is turning heads and is likely going to be a star in this league. There is absolutely no quit in this team and the coaching staff is finally one that looks to be the right fit. Minnesota is looking pretty solid as well at 6-2 and while it too can be put into that most improved group, we saw good things out of them last season when they finished the season 5-4. After losing the opener in San Francisco, the Vikings have only one loss which came by just three points at Denver and they have covered every game since. Coming off four straight wins, heading to the west coast and with a game against Green Bay on deck, they are not in a good spot here at all. Additionally, we play on favorites averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 295 and 335 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (268) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on TENNESSEE for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win last week over New Orleans and while that could normally spell letdown, that is not the case here. While they are just 2-6, the Titans trail the Colts by only a game and a half in the AFC South and with Andrew Luck on the shelf for at least a month, this division is up for grabs. Tennessee has outgained five of eight opponents and of their six losses, three have come by a combined six points. The Titans are back home after two straight road games and face off against the undefeated Panthers. Carolina defeated Green Bay last week as they dodged a late bullet and that was their third straight home game which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. While the Panthers have outgained six of eight opponents this season, the most they have outgained any one opponent is by just 51 yards so they have been hardly dominant. Tennessee falls into a fantastic situation a we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. As mentioned, the Panthers are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (256) Tennessee Titans

We lost with the Bears/Chargers over on Monday night but will come back with it here as the Bears head to St. Louis feeling pretty good about themselves. There was plenty of offense last week as Chicago gained 446 yards but unfortunately managed just 22 points. While they are facing a tougher defense this week, we are getting a much better number to work with which is partly due to the Bears going 5-1 to the under over their last six games. Speaking of unders, St. Louis has gone under the total in each of its last four games and six of its last seven so that is also playing into this total. Considering the last two games have come against two of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the total is just a couple points higher here, it shows the value involved. The Rams have allowed a total of 24 points in their last three home games but two of those came against offenses ranked 27th and 32nd while the other came against the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out. Chicago will be able to move the ball. On the other side, the Bears defense is 27th in points allowed and St. Louis has averaged a solid 22.8 ppg at home this season. Chicago is 9-1 to the over in it last 10 road games after one or more consecutive wins with the average points being 62.1 ppg while Str. Louis is 6-0 to the over in its last six after a loss by six or less points with the average point total being 53.5 ppg. 10* Over (257) Chicago Bears/(258) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As quickly as a team is one of the best in the NFL in the eyes of the public, they can turn on a dime and now the Packers are nowhere near the powerhouse they were just three weeks ago. I disagree with that and a return home is just what this team needs. Back-to-back road losses at Denver and Carolina are nothing to be ashamed of as they are a combined 15-1 so this is the perfect spot for a beatdown. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the business at home and coming off a loss so putting the two together spells disaster for the Lions. Detroit got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago to fall to 1-7 and while it is coming off a bye week, that won't matter here. The Lions season is done and there is already talk about Matthew Stafford leaving the team in the offseason. He has never defeated a team on the road with a winning percentage of .750 or better as he is 0-10 in this spot. We are also well aware of the Packers home dominance in this series and while we aren't using that as part of this play, it is still a very significant psychological factor. Here, we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Detroit is 0-12 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. 10* (252) Green Bay Packers

Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team for the first time and it should be a circus. While both offenses have been pretty steady of late, the defenses have been a real disappointment. The Jets allowed more than 20 points just once in their first five games but have allowed 29 ppg over their last three games. On the other side, Buffalo gave up 14 or fewer points in three of its first five games, it has allowed 28.3 ppg over its last three games. Both defenses are better than these recent forms and I expect both to pick it up on Thursday night. Because of the recent defensive struggles, the Bills have gone over the total in three straight games while the Jets have gone over the total in four straight games so we get the value that comes with that. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Buffalo, we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are coming off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 52-21 (71.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. For the Jets, we play the under involving teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 62-26 (70.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 11-5 in the Bills last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 16-4 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing seven or more yppl in their previous game. 10* Under (109) Buffalo Bills/(110) New York Jets

A great matchup on paper a few weeks ago has turned into which team can finally win their third game of the season. The point spread seems to be right on with the Chargers about two points better and then another two points added for home field which is one of the weakest in the league. With not a lot of pressure on either side, we should see both offenses slinging it around and having success in doing so. The Bears will be without Matt Forte so rookie running back Jeremy Langford will make his first career start and he should find holes against a Chargers defense that's allowing 124.6 ypg on the ground, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Getting him going will help out Jay Cutler who has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Philip Rivers is having a great season and that should continue here despite the loss of Keenan Allen as the Bears secondary is a mess. Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his eight games this season and while the Bears are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, but have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for fourth-most in the league. The over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 4-0 in the Chargers last four games against teams with a losing record. Both teams fall into the same situation as we play the over involving teams with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (473) Chicago Bears/(474) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on INDIANAPOLIS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Colts came through for us last Monday night as a big fourth quarter forced overtime but they just fell short. Indianapolis fell to 3-5 on the season and is now tied with Houston for first place in the AFC South so each game is getting bigger and bigger at this point. A shakeup was needed and it came this week as Rob Chudzinski is taking over the playcalling after offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired and this is a great situation for the Colts because of this. New wrinkles will be put in place and Denver is at the disadvantage of not being able to review film as things will be different. The Broncos remained undefeated with a big win last Sunday over previously undefeated Green Bay as they dominated the Packers which provides us with a great spot to go against them. The Colts are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams completing 61 percent or better of their passes while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS victory. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a revenge game for the Broncos from the playoff loss from last January but we are not an advocate of road revenge and it won't come into play here. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on GREEN BAY for our NFC Game of the Month. Green Bay may be a surprising road favorite here to some, but it is the right side and frankly, the Packers should be favored by more. This week we have heard that the Packers are reeling right now and are a team that is ready for a freefall and not even a top ten team. Well, those declarations are all wrong and catching Green Bay in this spot after the effort last week is a huge edge. The Packers were awful last week in Denver against the best defense in the NFL but they have been a great bounceback team. Under Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 18-5 ATS off a loss and under head coach Mike McCarthy, they are 8-1 ATS in nine road games after scoring 14 points or less last game. Additionally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a game on the road the last tow years. Carolina is one of four remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and arguably the worst of the bunch. The Panthers have not outgained a single opponent by more than 51 total yards through seven games and overall, they are outgaining opponents by just 6.5 ypg. Granted, the Packers are getting outgained overall but that was due to the thrashing that was put upon them last week. They fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites that are coming off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on WASHINGTON for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The public is all over the Patriots once again which comes as no surprise as they moved to 7-0 following a blowout win over Miami last Thursday night. But now the lines are going to really get overinflated and we are seeing that here. New England looks like the team from 2007 that went undefeated as in losing does not seen to be an option at this point but the Patriots have not been as dominant as that team. Only three of the seven wins have been by double-digits where back in 2007, the first eight wins were all by double-digits. The Redskins are getting six more points than the Dolphins were getting which is too big of an adjustment. New England has had some extra time for this one which is always an edge but Washington is coming off its bye week so it has had more time to rest, recuperate and prepare. The Redskins are now 3-4 following a win over Tampa Bay in which they came back from a 24-0 deficit and that should provide them with a ton of confidence. Getting two touchdowns in this league is way too much unless you are a bottom feeder and the Patriots have had their share of issues as they have gone 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games when favored by -13 or more points. Additionally, we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the RAMS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Vikings pulled off another big win last week in Chicago as two big pass plays set up the game-tying touchdown and game-winning field goal. They have won five of their last games following a season opening loss in San Francisco and Minnesota has covered every game since then as well. This is the start of six games against potential playoff teams, all of which have winning records, and this is a tough spot here as Minnesota has yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Rams have won two in a row and at 4-3, they are just a game and a half behind Arizona in the NFC West. The possess two impressive wins over Seattle and Arizona and with Todd Gurley in the lineup, this offense has turned things around quickly. Defensively, they are one of the best in pressuring the quarterback and they match up very well here. The Rams have quality depth all along the defensive line and are tied for second in the league with 23 sacks. Their best chances of slowing Adrian Peterson will come from their tackles disrupting the Vikings at the point of attack. They fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 137-83 ATS (62.3 percent) since 1983. Head coach Jeff Fisher has especially been great in similar spots as his teams are 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing nine points or less last game. 10* (455) St. Louis Rams

This is a play on the RAIDERS/STEELERS OVER for our Total of the Week. The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss last week against the Bengals as two late interceptions led to Cincinnati pulling away at the end. Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 and is now four games behind the Bengals in the AFC North. The offense that was expected to be one of the most explosive in the NFL has been anything but that, averaging just 21 ppg. Obviously, the absence of Ben Roethlisberger had a lot to do with that but now that he is back, the offense should start clicking again. The loss of Le'Veon Bell is a huge one but we should see more of the passing game and with the Steelers staying below the total for the last six games, we are playing with a lot of value here. The Raiders come in with a 4-3 record after two straight wins as the offense has put up 37 and 34 points and that was the fourth time this season Oakland has scored 27 or more points. They have gone over in five of seven games which is offsetting some of the value but with the playmakers on the Raiders offense starting to really click, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Going back to the Bell absence, when DeAngelo Williams played in the two games during his suspension, the Steelers scored 64 points so the potential is definitely still there. Pittsburgh is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while Oakland is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games in the second half of the season. 10* Over (451) Oakland Raiders/(452) Pittsburgh Steelers

It was made official this morning that Johnny Manziel will start for Cleveland Thursday night against the Bengals. While we pretty much knew that was coming anyone, it made no matter on who we were taking in this divisional rivalry. The Browns have struggled the last couple games against the Rams and Cardinals to fall to 2-6 overall as they will miss the playoffs yet again. Still, this is a big rivalry game and the Browns would love to be the team that hands the Bengals their first loss of the season. We thought that team was Pittsburgh last week and the Steelers were looking great until the fourth quarter as a pair of late Ben Roethlisberger interceptions did them in. The Bengals were outgained for the third time in four games including two straight so while the winning has been nice, it has not been dominating. Despite a perfect record, Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by just 25.4 ypg which is certainly not great. Still, the Bengals have covered all but one games this season and that was a push against the Seahawks in another miracle comeback. Even though this roster is filled with talent, it is still a team with many questions. The Browns fall into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Cleveland Browns

The Colts have been a major disappointment this season as they come into tonight at 3-4 and a loss tonight puts them into a tie with Houston in what is currently the worst division in the league. Andrew Luck has been a big reason for that and it has been reported that he was playing with not only a bad shoulder but cracked ribs. It should not be a huge deal as this is not uncommon. The Panthers are off to a 6-0 start and while Denver was the most fraudulent perfect team prior to last night before the very impressive win, Carolina now holds that claim. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by just five ypg and while the defense is solid, the offense is not going to run away from anyone. Carolina can distance itself from Atlanta which lost its second game of the season yesterday but this is a big number for the Panthers to cover. Under Luck, the Colts have won 15 out of 16 games when coming off a straight up cover loss and they fall into a solid contrarian situation. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Panthers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their last game at home while the Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (275) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on DENVER for our SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME. NBC could not have asked for a better matchup to face off against the World Series, there was no sweep, as a battle of undefeated teams square off in primetime. The Broncos and Packers are both coming off bye weeks and both have been extremely successful when playing with a week of rest so there is no edge either way. With what we have seen so far, Green Bay is the better team as a whole as the Broncos have hit a few problems along the way but have managed to escape defeat. Still, being the home underdog here is a bit surprising even though the offense is struggling as Denver has not been a home underdog since September of 2012. Defensively, Denver is the better team and that will be a big asset this week. Despite a perfect record, Green Bay has been outgained in three of their six wins and this is just its second road game since opening week. Here, we play on any team after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 73-36 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Denver is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a spread loss. 10* (274) Denver Broncos

This is a play on DALLAS for our SUNDAY ENFORCER. The Cowboys were the preseason pick from many to win the NFC East but when Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone, all bets were off. Dallas somehow had to get through the stretch of his absence by keeping close to the top of the division and it is actually still there because of the mediocrity of the rest of the division. Dallas has gone 0-4 and while it is still in the mix, losing many more games will take a hit. A win here would be monumental and after outgaining the Giants by 171 total yards last week, a win is far from out of the question. The Seahawks looked like the Seahawks of old last week in San Francisco as the defense dominated the 49ers in a 20-3 victory, outgaining San Francisco by 246 total yards. It was a big road win and a big win in general to remain two games behind Arizona in the NFC West. However, that was the first road win in four chances this season as the highway continues to sit way below the home dominance. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our AFC GAME OF THE WEEK. The return of Ben Roethlisberger could not have come at a better time with Cincinnati coming to town. The Steelers survived without him by going 2-2 in the four games he did not start and they get him back for the big game to stay within the division. We played against Pittsburgh last week in Kansas City with one of those reasons being the fact it had lost a game against the spread up to that point. That logic calls for going against Cincinnati this week as it comes in 5-0-1 ATS record gives value going the other way. Despite a 6-0 record, other than the opener against the Raiders, the Bengals have not outgained any other team by more than 60 total yards and have actually been outgained twice. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 12 home games coming off a double-digit loss and additionally, the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the top to bottom roster may be better than the Steelers, Cincinnati is not as dominant as it should be for a team that is undefeated. Pittsburgh avoids a 3.5-game deficit in the division with a big win Sunday and hands the Bengals their first loss. 10* (264) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on SAN FRANCISCO for our SUNDAY ULTIMATE UNDERDOG. The Niners have been all over the place this season. They looked great in their season opening win over Minnesota only to look horrendous in their next three games prior to a solid game against the Giants and a win over Baltimore and than last week happened. San Francisco was dominated by Seattle but we can't take too much out of that considering the Seahawks have dominated that series even when the 49ers were really good. Point being, the 49ers are not as bad as they have looked in some of their losses but are now getting their biggest line of the season. The Rams took care of Cleveland last week but they have yet to win consecutive games this season, going 0-2 after its first two wins, and is 1-5 since the start of last season following a victory. While this is a decent team and an improved squad, St. Louis is laying its biggest pointspread since Christmas Eve of 2005 which was the last time it laid more than a touchdown. The Rams are not that good to be doing it in this matchup as the gap is not this big. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 93-46 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on CHICAGO for our SUNDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The Vikings were a sexy pick to make the playoffs this season and they are living up to those expectations so far with a 4-2 record following their win last Sunday against Detroit. It is hard to get a grasp of how good Minnesota is with that record considering it has been outgained in four of its six games including two of three on the road. The Vikings will be seeking a third straight win for the first time in three years and going back they are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Bears are far from out of its and have been playing very solid before they hit their bye last week. They had won two straight games before losing a tough one in overtime against the Lions. This is the first time they have been home in a month and despite being just 1-2 in three home games, Chicago has outgained all three opponents and that includes games against Green Bay and Arizona. While making the playing is probably already a longshot for the Bears, a win here is huge as a loss will be detrimental. The Vikings opened as favorites here but the line has since shifted the other way so while we missed the better number, I don't expect that come into play. 10* (254) Chicago Bears

Miami has turned its season completely around since its London trip with the firing of Joe Philbin and the hiring of Dan Carpenter as head coach. The big turnaround has been on the offensive side as the Dolphins have scored 82 points over their last two games after scoring 65 points in their first four games. Because of the resurgence, the Dolphins went over the total in those two games and now the number this week has been adjusted and by too much in my opinion as this is the highest over/under Miami has encountered this season. Also, it is the first time the Dolphins have seen a total in the 50's since Week 13 of the 2012 season. Coincidentally, that was also against New England and it stayed well below the total. New England has also gone over the total in two straight games as well as four of its last five which is also playing a role in this week's total. The Patriots offense has been in high gear all season and while Miami has struggled on defense, that unit has also improved the last two weeks. Four of seven Thursday night games have gone over with two of the unders staying below by a total of just three points so the public continues to play the over on these nationally televised games. Both teams fall into a fantastic league-wide situation as we play the under involving any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 against division opponents, off a home win. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 19-5 to the under in its last 24 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* Under (101) Miami Dolphins/(102) New England Patriots

Baltimore hits the west coast for the second straight week with its season hanging in the balance. The Ravens are a surprising 1-5 and while many will call them dead already, the schedule sets up very well going forward as they have a three-game homestand on deck while moving more forward, six of their next eight games are at home. A sixth loss will be detrimental but we aren't totally concerned with that here as the cover is in our interest and this line has gone through the roof. A big reason is the fact that Baltimore has yet to cover a game this season and with the public being a player of the favorite on Monday nights, the linesmakers had to make the overadjustment here. Arizona is coming off its second loss of the season last week at Pittsburgh so a win here is big for the Cardinals to avoid its lead in the NFC West to shrink to a half-game over the Rams. They have the highest point differential in the NFL which helps with the line as well as it has reached a point that Arizona is not accustomed to. Being favored by more than a touchdown is a rarity and not a successful number for the Cardinals as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite between 7.5 and 14 points. Additionally, the Ravens fall into a fantastic league-wide contrarian situation where we play on road teams with a losing record on the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Baltimore's five losses this season are by a total of 22 points which further shows how much this line is off by. 10* (475) Baltimore Ravens

This game has been off the board for most of the week because of the status of Ben Roethlisberger but offensive coordinator Todd Haley told reporters he's planning for Jones to start Sunday. The Steelers are coming off a huge win last Sunday against the Cardinals as they were held to four field goals but managed to win by 12 points despite getting outgained by 159 total yards, the third straight game they have been outyarded by their opponent. Pittsburgh has yet to have lost against the spread depending on the closing line and that is putting the public on its side. The Chiefs have dropped five straight games after a season opening win against Houston but some of those could have gone either way as they have outgained there of those five opponents. Kansas City has lost both home games which are two of the games it could have won which is a great spot here as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (456) Kansas City Chiefs

The Browns have been involved in three straight games that have been decided by three points, the last two coming in overtime, and overall they have gone 1-2 in those games. Cleveland is 2-4 and this is a huger game with a home game against Arizona on deck and then four straight divisional games. The Rams are coming off their bye week which could be a good thing as they were defeated in Green Bay by two touchdowns but the bye week is not what it used to be. It has been close to a month since the Rams were home last which is a big reason they are favored by this many points. St. Louis has certainly improved but the big chalk has not been kind as they failed to cover their last two in this role and anything over a field goal is huge. Cleveland falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 that are coming off a road loss and playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

The Patriots are coming off a big win last week in Indianapolis which was a big retribution game from the AFC Championship despite having won that game last season. They seem to be on a mission right now but we cannot ignore the fact they have defeated only one team with a winning record and that was the opener of the season against Pittsburgh in an eclectic atmosphere at home. Even though this is a return game at home in a divisional battle, there is a sense of a letdown which is certainly not going on with the other side. The Jets are 4-1 and playing with confidence following consecutive wins over Washington and Miami which may be considered poor wins but are not considered victories to turn into letdowns. This is big number for New England to be laying in a divisional game against a team that is just one game back as it is once again a big pubic play. The Jets defense has been one of the best in the league this season and while shutting the Patriots down in not likely, slowing them down certainly is. And this is one of the better Jets offenses we have seen in a while so the potential is there to keep up. New York has covered four straight games against winning teams while going back, has covered four straight games in this series. 10* (459) New York Jets

Had the Colts won last week against New England, this game would be off the radar but the fact they lost, it puts them in a great situation at home. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight divisional games so they are again in great position in the AFC South but they cannot be giving up any more non-divisional games. The Colts three losses have come against teams .500 or better so the fact that they have been outgained in every game this season cushions it somewhat. Now Indianapolis faces a team that has won the yardage battle just once this season, against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys. The Saints are coming off an upset win against division rival Atlanta and hitting the road is not a good thing here. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams averaging 5.65 or more yppl and they fall into a great situation where we play on favorites that are allowing 7.5 or more passing ypa, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a victory while going 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. 10* (468) Indianapolis Colts

We played the over in the Vikings/Chiefs game last week and it didn't come close as only 26 points were scored and that resulted in the first five games of their season going under the total. We are going contrarian here as they face a pretty rough defense while their own defense will be challenged here. The Lions are coming off an overtime win over the Bears as they scored a season-high 37 points following four straight games where they tallied 17 points or fewer. Detroit has outgained the last two opponents and being home in its third straight game presents another great opportunity to keep the offense rolling. The Lions are 6-0 to the over in their last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while Minnesota falls into a contrarian league-wide situation where we play the over involving any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off one or more consecutive unders, with defense that is allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 73-40 (64.6 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Weakness against weakness is a strong edge for the Vikings offense here that has scored just 23 combined road points and going against the last four unders in this series serves a contrarian angle as well. 10* Over (461) Minnesota Vikings/(462) Detroit Lions

As mentioned last week, probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 364.2 ypg and 23.5 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense so the fact they have gone over the total in all six games is very surprising. Last Sunday, it took a high scoring second half which included a defensive score after a 10-point first half and then produced overtime on top of that. The Rams boast a very strong defense and while not as stringent as the Broncos, it is still a top ten unit. Offensively, St. Louis is one of the worst in the NFL as it is ranked second to last in both total offense and scoring offense so as much as the Browns have struggled at times on defense, do not expect much here for the Rams as they have scored 10 points or less in three of five games. Cleveland falls into a solid situation where we play the under involving road teams against the total that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (453) Cleveland Browns/(454) St. Louis Rams

Last week we saw a home underdog cash and win outright as New Orleans handed Atlanta its first loss of the season and while we always respect primetime home underdogs, this week's situation is a lot different. Whether Seattle is going through a Super Bow hangover has yet to be determined but the Seahawks have missed out on numerous chances to have a better record than their current 2-4 shows. Their four fourth-quarter blown leads are not only the most in the league this season but they are the most any team has suffered in its first six games since the 1999 Saints. Making matters worse, Seattle is being outscored 55-27 in the fourth quarter, the second-worst differential in the NFL. Not to defend the collapses much but the Seahawks have faced the second-toughest schedule of any team so far and should have ample opportunities to make up ground in the NFC playoff race as they have only four games left against teams currently above .500. The 49ers have had a rough start as well but theirs was expected. They are 2-4 as well and despite winning last week against Baltimore, they have lost four of five and have been outgained in all five games by a combined 674 total yards. Playing a second straight home game leading into Thursday night helps but there are too many weaknesses on this team and much better San Francisco teams from the recent past have had no success against Seattle, losing five of the last six meetings. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks

The Giants are arguably the best two-loss team in the NFL. You can make a case for Arizona which lost yesterday and is still +88 in point differential but New York is the team that could very well be 6-0 right now if not for two fourth quarter gaffes that cost them. The NFC East remains wide open and when looking at divisional games, the typical spread is three points which is the home field edge but this one has gone north of that. While the Giants may be a surprise, the Eagles have been a disappointment although they finally put together their best game of the season last week against the Saints and momentum is a big thing. However, the Giants also has their most lopsided games within the numbers last week against the 49ers as they outgained San Francisco by 145 total yards despite the narrow three-point win. The Giants are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg while going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games after a win by six points or less. Under Tom Coughlin, New York is 22-7 ATS after two or more straight win and the Giants fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Look for the Giants to stay within this inflated number and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (275) New York Giants

This is one of the most highly anticipated games of the early season as it is a rematch of last season's AEC Championship and the infamous "Deflategate". Many are pointing toward the Patriots out to seek revenge and prove a point that cheating was not part of that game but that is far from a motivator in my opinion. Extra motivation is not needed in this matchup and if anything, it will be the Colts out to avenge that 38-point thrashing last January. After a 0-2 start, the Colts came upon three straight divisional games and they won them all with two of those coming with Matt Hasselbeck playing quarterback. Andrew Luck is back this week and while his success against the Patriots has been lacking as he has never defeated them, things could be different here. New England looks to be on a mission and while it looks unbeatable right now, this number makes no sense. The Patriots were favored by a touchdown at home last year and now being favored by even more than that on the road this time around is too much of an adjustment. After defeating Pittsburgh in an ideal situation to open the season, the Patriots have had a very favorable schedule facing two teams with new starting quarterbacks and hosting Jacksonville. The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better while going 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Additionally, we play against road favorites outgaining opponents by 70 or more passing ypg on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 70-33 ATS (68 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Indianapolis Colts

Not many are giving the Chargers a chance here and that includes the linesmakers. San Diego is off to a rough start this season as it sits 2-3 following a loss as time expired on Monday night against the Steelers. That was a game they could have won as was a game at Cincinnati earlier in the season so they are better than their record indicated. That is proven by the fact they have outgained four of five opponents and the only negative margin came against the Bengals by just 35 total yards. The schedule has been on the side of the Packers as after opening against the lowly Bears, this is the fourth time in the last five games they have been at home and with a bye week on deck, they should be fully focused which we won't deny. But laying this kind of lumber against a team that moves the ball very well is simply too much. Green Bay is the lone 5-0 ATS team in the NFL and that is also playing a role with this number. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards but the key here could be the running game as Todd Gurley ran roughshod through the Packers defense last weekend and Melvin Gordon could be in line for a monster game as he has four runs of 20-plus yards. Stopping Aaron Rodgers will not happen but this has the makings of a shootout and San Diego can no doubt keep up. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams allowing 6 or more yppl and it falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 7 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (269) San Diego Chargers