Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Tennessee won going away for us last week as it was able to shut down a Cincinnati offense that clearly is not right and the situation was hugely in its favor, coming off a 27-3 loss at Cleveland. Derrick Henry went off last week with 122 yards rushing on 5.5 ypc but that was against a Bengals defense that is ranked No. 25 in defensive rushing EPA. The Colts come in No. 13 in that category so they should be able to slow him down enough and make Ryan Tannehill beat them after he was not asked to do so last week. Overall, this is a very underrated Colts defense. Indianapolis almost rallied from a 23-0 deficit as it forced overtime only to lose. The road team is a surprising 4-0 in its games but that changes here. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson returned last week and he has definitely shown flashes. He was on pace for a big game against Houston before getting hurt and he then missed the next game and while he struggled early last week, he rallied in the second half. This is a bad matchup for the Tennessee defense as it is one of the best inside but is struggles to contain and this is where Richardson can use his athleticism to get to the outside to create plays for himself and also find spots downfield against a poor Titans secondary. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Denver as it blew a 28-7 lead late in the third quarter by allowing the final 24 points with the stinger coming on a 35-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bears also lost the cover as well as it resulted in a push and they have gone seven straight going back to last season without a cover and have lost 14 straight games. in three of the four losses, they have been in the game as they were barely outgained by Green Bay, were within three points against Tampa Bay before a pick six and then the defeat last week where they outgained the Broncos by 160 yards. Turnovers have obviously been the difference as they have eight turnovers with Justin Fields accounting for seven of those. He is coming off his best game however and can carry that into this game against a poor Washington defense allowing 7.0 ypc, No. 24 in the league. The Commanders are also coming off a tough loss as they held a 17-7 lead and it was a tight game where they never trailed by more than a touchdown. That is a rough division loss to recover from yet the money has come in early to move this line up two points from opening but that is more of the action against the Bears as no one wants to back them. This offense is right in line with Chicago and while facing a bad defense, the Bears weakness is against the pass but Sam Howell is a quarterback hard to trust with his 81.3 rating and having more interceptions than touchdowns. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 157-94 ATS (62.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Giants have played 12 quarters this season and have only played good in four of those, two against Arizona and two against San Francsico. The problem is they got blitzed in the other two quarters against the 49ers, getting outscored 24-3 and they have had extra time to get ready to heal up. Injuries have played an early role in the lack of success but they will be getting at least one big piece back with tackle Andrew Thomas coming back after missing the last two games. Saquon Barkley is still out which might be affecting this line a little as is the fact New York is 0-3 ATS. Seattle is 2-1 with wins in its last two games which came after a disaster of a game in its season opener against the Rams. The two victories are making the Seahawks a public darling again but this team has their issues. They too are dealing with important injuries, especially across the offensive line and in the secondary. The latter is an issue as the Seahawks have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 7.5 ypa which is tied for fourth worst in the league and their 328 ypg allowed is second worst. The Giants struggled to air it out against the Cowboys and 49ers but those are two of the best so they can have success here. With road games at Miami and Buffalo on deck, this has become a must win for the Giants. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (280) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. It has been an understandable regression for Minnesota which went 11-0 in one possession games during the regular season last year but has not dropped four straight one possession games going back to its postseason game. Turnovers have been a big issue as the Vikings are -7 in turnover margin and while difficult to predict, they can be contagious. Right now, they are not close to a touchdown favorite over Carolina on a neutral field yet the public is still on Minnesota and they are all over them again here with this line moving early and going over the key number three. Carolina lost a tough cover last week as it was within the margin for the majority of the game but could not run the ball and wasted a great effort from backup Andy Dalton who passed for 361 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. He is likely going to make another start with Bryce Young nursing that ankle injury and no matter who goes, the Panthers will be facing another poor defense that is allowing 5.5 yppl which is tied for No. 24 in the league. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Cleveland came through for us last week as the defense continues its historic early season pace. The Browns lead the NFL in yppl allowed with just 3.2 and they have given up a total of only 491 through the first three games. This is a pace that cannot continue and now will be facing the most dynamic offense it has seen. The loss on Nick Chubb has shown as even though Cleveland piled up rushing yards against Pittsburgh, a lot of that came on a big play after he left and they were held in check last week. We cannot trust Deshaun Watson two straight weeks. Baltimore was put into a tough spot last week coming off a bog road divisional win and then having to deal with numerous injuries last week. The Ravens are going to be healthier this week and they have a good matchup and after coming off an upset loss last week, the public is off. Baltimore opened as the favorite and it has flipped with the majority of places having a juiced 2.5 number and we should be able to get 3 with the Browns catching 88 percent of money and 80 percent of tickets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Rams are coming off a loss and hit the road again on a short week which has partially caused line movement the other way. Los Angeles is 1-2 with the win coming against a Seattle team that looks to have gotten things right. A loss to San Francisco was no surprise even though the Rams won the yardage battle and last week was just an ugly play called game that they should have ended up winning. Los Angeles is tied for No. 11 in opponents yppl at 4.9 and tied for No. 10 in offensive yppl at 5.3 so it has been above average despite possessing a losing record. The Colts are coming off an upset win at Baltimore which is the other part of the line move. At 2-1, is this a good team? Jacksonville has played into their record as the Colts played them tight and beat Houston which just defeated the Jaguars but the Jacksonville team is not right. We could see Anthony Richardson back at quarterback but neither he nor Gardner Minshew provide consistency in the offense that is averaging only 4.6 yppl, No. 25 in the league. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Titans are coming off a blowout loss against Cleveland and had an abysmal performance on offense, managing only 92 total yards against what has been the best defense in the league thus far and that was their worst offensive output in 49 years. The matchup this week is the complete opposite and it certainly cannot get any worse. They are back home where they own a win in their only game in Nashville against the Chargers and this has been a great spot in the past as Tennessee is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after scoring nine points or less. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season but it was far from easy as the running game could get nothing going for a third straight game behind a hobbled quarterback. Cincinnati is dead last in the NFL in yppl at 4.0 which is not what was expected when coming into the season but the calf injury to Joe Burrow is a bigger deal that anticipated. Defensively, the Bengals have not been much better as they are No. 20 in yppl allowed at 5.4 and after allowing 384 yards on the ground in their first two games, Derrick Henry could be primed for a big game. The public is not shying away with 94 percent of money and tickets on Cincinnati and we hope to see a 3 after already moving a point from its opening. 10* (270) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and while they could be 3-0, they could also be 1-2 as their last two games were decided late. Green Bay blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against Atlanta to lose 25-24 and last week, it rallied from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit to win 18-17. Two things have been evident. First off, the Packers have had the benefit of facing teams with quarterback deficiencies as Justin Fields has regressed from a great ending to last season, Desmond Ridder is simply not good as he put up a 79.8 rating in the comeback win and the Saints lost Derek Carr to a shoulder injury in the third quarter and the offense was not the same. Second, while Jordan Love orchestrated the comeback, he was inconsistent after finally facing a strong defense which will be the case again this week. He put up big ratings against Chicago and Atlanta but overall, he is completing only 53.1 percent of his passes. Not only does Green Bay see another tough defense, its own defense will finally see a quarterback that can produce. Jared Goff was not asked to sling it around last week so he only amassed 243 yards but he is completing 70 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions were on the wrong end of a coin flip in overtime against Seattle and they never saw the ball in their only loss. Defensively, generating pressure on the quarterback was an issue the first two games but both Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith get the ball out quick and last week, the Lions go to Ridder seven times and Love has not shown the ability to make consistent, quick decisions. 10* (101) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of ugly wins and it goes into a tougher than expected matchup. Offensively, something is off even though the Eagles were able to run the ball all over Minnesota with 259 yards but they cannot have that success again against a much better defensive front. The system is basically the same as last season but having a new offensive coordinator takes time to adjust to play calling. The big mismatch though is on the other side of the ball as the Eagles secondary is a mess and will be facing one of the top receiving corps in the league which can do a reversal as well and open up the running game that has been pedestrian so far. We have seen this line drop despite the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles which are going to be a very public team come kickoff. Tampa Bay is also 2-0 to start the season and it can certainly be considered a fraudulent 2-0 thank to the Buccaneers being +5 in turnover margin. While he does get a bad rap, Baker Mayfield has performed well in this offense as he is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has a 104.4 quarterback rating as he has avoided the turnovers. He will have plenty of looks downfield against this Eagles defense that has allowed 306 and 346 yards through the air in their first two games. While the Buccaneers defense has not faced an offensive line this strong yet, the fact they have allowed only 108 yards rushing in both games total still does say something. 10* (478) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Steelers came through for us Monday in a wrong side win as they were outgained 408-255 but the defense generated four turnovers, two that led to direct touchdowns saving some fantasy teams, or ruining some, along the way as well. Pittsburgh has now been outgained 799-494 in its two games and both of those were at home and now it hits the road for the first time. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has yet to hit his sophomore stride as he is ranked No. 30 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and looks lost in this offense. Part of the problem is that he has no rushing game to help him out and that is the issue on both sides. Offensively, the Steelers have rushed for 96 yards on 31 carries (3.1 ypc) and on defense, they have allowed 386 yards on 69 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is not going to get it done as the back half can only do so much. The Raiders upset Denver on the road in their opener and then jumped ahead of Buffalo 7-0 before the Bills took over last week. They are back home in Las Vegas for their home opener in hopes of getting their own running game going as they have ran for only 116 yards on 44 carries (2.6 ypc) but facing this defense can turn that around. Josh Jacobs is coming off one of his worst games ever as he carried the ball nine times for -2 yards so expect a lot more from him. The defense got torched by Josh Allen after holding Russell Wilson to just 166 yards passing the previous week and Picket will not have success. This line opened at even and move to the Steelers being the favorite but it has flipped to the Raiders side. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is off to an expected 0-2 start with a pair of division losses that could have gone either way if not or turnovers. The Panthers outgained Atlanta 281-221 but were -2 in turnovers and last Monday they could not convert in the redzone. The Carolina offense has stumbled the first two games behind rookie quarterback Bryce Young but in his defense, even though the sample size is small with just one other game played by the opposition, he has faced the No. 3 and No. 6 ranked defenses in yppl and now it will be Andy Dalton going up against the No. 30 ranked defense as Seattle is allowing 5.9 yppl and he is far from a downgrade. The running game has been just fine as the Panthers have rushed for 254 yards on 51 carries (5.0 ypc) despite Miles Sanders not breaking out yet. Seattle opened as the favorite at 4 and it jumped slightly to 4.5 and then after the Carolina loss it has moved all the way to 6 as of Wednesday. The Seahawks were outgained in regulation by 100 yards last week against Detroit after getting outgained by the Rams 426-180 so it has not gone great despite being 1-1. Give Geno Smith credit for bouncing back last week but he is still ranked just No. 18 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and with both tackles still hurt, he faces an underrated defense that is ranked No. 7 in defensive yppl. The one concern was Young coming into a hostile environment as a rookie but Dalton is experienced and better equipped for the surroundings so he will be just fine and let the defense to its thing in what looks like a field goal game either way. 10* (469) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against Cleveland on Monday night and won even though it was the wrong side as the Browns gave the game away with a pair of defensive touchdowns for the Steelers. Deshawn Watson was not good, especially in the clutch, but he went up against one of the top defenses in the league that people do not like to admit. The loss of Nick Chubb was devastating for him and not a good one for the Browns but not bad enough that they cannot overcome. They face another good defense here but they are in a good spot coming off that loss where they outgained the Steelers 408-255 but four turnovers overall did them in including the aforementioned two that directly turned into scores. Tennessee overcame an early 11-0 deficit to win in overtime against Los Angeles in a very even game where they lost the yardage battle by just one yard and it was a clean game with no turnovers on eighter side. The Titans come into a bad spot this week and while their defense looks good, they have allowed 282 and 281 yards passing the first two games which gives hope to Watson. The offense managed only 285 yards against the Saints in their first road game while settling for five field goals. Tennessee faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week after going against that tough New Orleans defense and it has another challenge here as Cleveland is the only team in the NFL where its opponent has yet to run a play in its redzone so this defense has been for real. This line opened 4.5 and went up to 5 but after Monday night, the line has come down considerably which is a big overreaction. 10* (454) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. One paper, this looks like a Miami lay as the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road while the Broncos are 0-2 with both of their losses coming at home. This is an opposite situational play based on that and we are getting value on top of backing Denver along with other factors that are not being taken into consideration. Luck factor is a big ingredient in finding value and this game fully falls into this metric with these teams on opposite ends of those ratings. The Broncos come in as the second unluckiest team at -46.4 percent as they have lost two winnable games by a combined three points. Denver was outgained by the Raiders by one yard and against Washington, it outgained the Commanders 399-388, albeit a big chunk coming on the Hail Mary, which is a slim margin but blew a 21-3 lead in the process as it fell apart down the stretch. Many are calling Russell Wilson a wash but there is more to it than a 0-2 record and an eye test as he is ranked No. 5 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats which include how yards are accumulated along with defensive pressure. Miami is the third luckiest team in the league at 43.2 percent coming off a couple games that could have gone either way. But because of the 2-0 start, the Dolphins are shooting up in the futures market to win the AFC and the Super Bowl while Tua Tagovailoa is now the favorite to win MVP and yes, he is ranked behind Wilson in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats. The records alone are factoring into the number which opened at 6 and has moved to 6.5 with 7 possibly coming thanks to 80 percent of money on Miami. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Falcons are off to a 2-0 start and were hammered when this line came out at 6 and when down to 4.5 shortly after and it continues to drop as it is down to 3.5 as of Wednesday with some 3-120 out there and a flat 3 could become available. Atlanta took care of a rookie quarterback in his first ever road game in the season opener and then was able to overcome a 12-point deficit against Green Bay last week. It has been a tale of two different offenses for the Falcons despite scoring 24 and 25 points as they put up 221 yards against the Panthers but upped that to 446 yards against Green Bay so we do not know much based on two games of 5.0 yppl and 5.8 yppl other than the fact the total of 5.3 yppl is middle of the pack and now the Falcons leave the fast turn of the dome for the first time. We played against Detroit last week as the Seahawks won in overtime with the Lions never seeing the ball and to be fair, that is a regular season rule that needs to go away. The Lions were overpriced last week against Seattle following their win over the Chiefs the previous Thursday in their opener and now we are seeing a reversal based on their loss and the Falcons undefeated start. Detroit outgained Seattle 418-393 despite not seeing the ball in overtime with 75 of those opposing yards coming after regulation. Detroit is No. 4 in the NFL in yppl at 5.9 and while the Falcons defense is ranked No. 3 in defensive yppl at 4.2, the success has mostly come in the passing defense as they have allowed only 4.2 ypa against young quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love but Jared Goff is averaging 8.1 ypa. 10* (466) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The advance line opened at 9.5 and moved to 10 by Sunday night following the Saquon Barkley injury and has now shot up to 10.5 and 11 in some spots after the news that Barkley will be out a few games. it is a big blow to both Barkley, who is playing for a contract and incentives, and to the Giants but nothing they cannot get past here. The early money is all over San Francisco for obvious reasons and it will likely continue to pour in on the 49ers leading into Thursday. New York is coming off a must needed win and it took a huge second half comeback and while it takes a big step up in competition here, the linesmakers know that. After six quarters of dreadful offense, the Giants finally got things going in the second half against the Cardinals and they can carry that momentum into Thursday. It is a short week with a second consecutive road game but New York stayed out west so it is not at a big disadvantage from that standpoint. The 49ers have won both of their games without much resistance from the Steelers or Rams and while coming into the season as a public team, they are even more so now. From a situational standpoint, they do not have an edge here coming off a divisional game while also playing on a short week in the same timeframe. The defense did show vulnerabilities against the pass last week as they were unable to contain rookie Puka Nacua despite him being targeted 20 times. This is a spot where the Giants rookie Jalin Hyatt could see more coming his way after being targeted only twice last week but gaining 89 yards. Offensively, quarterback Brock Purdy has been decent yet unspectacular and the Giants defense can build on its momentum as well. Excellent contrarian spot. Here, we play on road teams after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) New York Giants

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Overreaction time ends in Week Two on Monday night between the Browns and Steelers. Obviously, the line needs to be reactive to what happened last week but the adjustments can be too big, which is the case here. The Steelers were -1 on the advance line, but because they were hammered by the 49ers at home coupled with the Cleveland win at home, the line has flipped over a field goal. As a comparison, Pittsburgh closed +1 against San Francisco and now it is getting a point and a half more against a team not on the same level as the 49ers. The Steelers were dominated on both sides of the ball but that was against arguably the best roster in the league and we will get a better effort this week and they have the advantage of remaining home on a short week. Also factoring into the line is the fact Cleveland rolled over Cincinnati last week but the Browns had an advantageous situation. The weather played a big factor as it took away the prolific Bengals passing attack and adding to that was that quarterback Joe Burrow missed all of camp with a calf injury and his rust was evident. Cleveland held Cincinnati to only 142 total yards and while it does possess a strong defense facing a team that put up just 239 yards of offense last week, it will not be a repeat. This is a great bounce back situation with a line in our favor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems coming off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (292) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. The Giants had one of the worst efforts in Week One as they were the only teams that did not score a point but we cannot go off one just one week in this situation. Unfortunately, we are not getting a similar overreaction line with New York like other teams but that is based on the opponent. This has already turned into a huge game for the Giants as they are looking right at a 0-3 start should they not show up here as they have to travel to San Francisco next week and there is no chance of a look ahead. Coaching is huge for a recovery and last season under Brian Daboll, the Giants went 7-0 ATS following a loss. Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL with a new staff and a poor quarterback on a bad roster. The Cardinals are coming off a valiant effort against Washington last week as they lost by just four points but were fortunate. The Commanders gave it up three times while the Arizona offense could do nothing, generating only 210 yards on 3.8 yppl. While they face a defense that allowed 40 points, it was not the defense that was at fault as New York allowed only 248 yards to the Cowboys. Offensively, Daniel Jones was under pressure the whole game and it will be a different story this week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (279) New York Giants

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We have seen a ton of line movement in a lot of games this week and this is one of those based on the results from last week. Seattle looked atrocious against the Rams on both sides of the ball as it was outgained 426-180 and anyone who was on the Seahawks are certainly hopping off this week. The advance line was 2.5 points and has skyrocketed up to 6 points based on that game as well as the other side of things. Typically no team in the NFL looks as good or bad as they did the previous week and we are expecting a bounce back game from the Seahawks. Detroit is off the upset on Thursday night against Kansas City and while it did outgain the Chiefs in the victory, the difference in the game was the pick six and the fact that the Chiefs receivers were abysmal. The Lions have moved up the power rankings and remain one of just a handful of teams expected to contend in the NFC but now they are overpriced. Detroit could very well be deserving of having an inflated line but it has not really proven much yet especially this early in the season. Offensively, the Lions do have a good matchup but on the other side, the defense is still a work in progress and Seattle will certainly be better than last week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (269) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against the Bills and thought that was as dead bet four plays into the game but the Jets defense came through and stifled the Bills once again similar to both games last season. Buffalo is back home and while some are already writing them off, that is a horrible take as this is still a top 10 team and expect Josh Allen to recover. He goes from facing one of the best defenses in the NFL to one of the worst and being at home helps. He has gone 9-4 ATS in his last 13 games following a loss. The defense did catch a break with Aaron Rodgers going down and while they struggled to stop the run, their gameplan was shot and will be ready for a run heavy opponent this week. The Raiders pulled off the mild upset in Denver but is Los Angeles a good team or is Denver once again bad? We lean to the former. There were missed reactions about the Raiders coming into the season as they were anywhere from a sleeper contender to one of the worst team in the league and despite a good defensive effort last week, this defense is not good and that will show up here. Russell Wilson was unable to get the ball down field but still completed 79 percent of his passes and Allen brings in a whole different dynamic. Five of the last eight wins last season were by one possession but those were all after Allen was injured and now we get him healthy coming off an awful game. 10* (274) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs were unable to please the home crowd following their Super Bowl win as they lost an ugly opener against Detroit, a game they could have started to put away but mistakes cost them. Patrick Maholmes had a fairly average night but he was not totally at fault as of his 18 incompletions, eight were flat out dropped passes. Kansas City was missing two of its top players on each side of the ball in the opener but both are expected back. Tight end Travis Kelce will return to help in the passing game on offense and that is huge against this defense that is not good in the middle and Kelce exposed that last season with 20 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the two meetings. Jacksonville opened its season with a victory but that was against the Colts which are one of the worst teams in the league and now the Jaguars go from facing a rookie quarterback to going up against Maholmes coming off a loss. The Jaguars allowed 280 yards to the Colts but it is a different story this week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has come into his own after some early struggles but will face a tougher test here. He struggled against the Chiefs in the playoffs last season and while his regular season game was much better, he was still sacked five times. Last week against Kansas City he would have been in a better place but now Chris Jones is expected back, which adds a whole new element. 10* (275) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Week One overreactions will be prevalent in the lines this week and it starts with the first game of Week Two based on score results. Minnesota hits the road following an opening loss at home against Tampa Bay 20-17 and we easily won that one with the Buccaneers outright victory. The Vikings were unfortunate as they outgained Tampa Bay 369-242 but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and it is rare to pull out a victory with that discrepancy. Minnesota was unable to produce any sort of running game as it rushed for just 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while Kirk Cousins was able to move the ball at will with 344 yards on 33-44 passing, he was responsible for all three turnovers with one interception and two fumbles. The defense played good enough to win and will need another strong effort. The Eagles won in New England 25-20 as they nearly blew a 16-0 first quarter lead. Philadelphia scored its first touchdown of the season on a 70-yard interception return as the offense was not very good. The Eagles were outgained 382-251 as they struggled on third down going 4-13 and were forced into four field goals and play calling was a concern with new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and it could take time for this unit to come together. The defense did a good job limiting the Patriots rushing attack but Mac Jones threw for 316 yards with that one interception being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Signature Enforcer. The Jets were in the playoff hunt last season as they rolled into Week 13 with a 7-4 record but went on to lose their final six games to finish 7-10 as the offense could not get out of its own way. New York averaged only 11 ppg over those final six games while scoring just 15 points combined over the final three games so it was clear adjustments had to be made on that side of the ball. Overall, the Jets were 30th in EPA per play and they made the splash move of the offseason with the trade to get Aaron Rodgers and added to that with the signing of running back Dalvin Cook late into training camp to possess one of the best one-two running back options with a healthy Breece Hall behind him. While the offense has no where to go but up, the defense of New York will be a difference maker all season. The Jets ranked No. 6 EPA per play on defense and it did its job against Buffalo last season, holding the Bills to 17 and 20 points in the two meetings and those two games were two of the three lowest point totals for the Bills during the regular season with the other being 19 points scored in Miami in September in the oppressive heat. Quarterback Josh Allen posted a 64.4 passer rating in those games while completing less than 56 percent of his passes albeit being injured in one of those games. The line swing from last season is huge as the Bills were favored by 10 points here last November but are still the favorite and not in a good situation as opening Monday night divisional favorites are 4-17-1 ATS when the total is upward of 42. 10* (482) New York Jets

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Star Attraction. This line has surprised a few with Chicago actually being favored in this game and the early money has proven that with this line opening at 3 and being bet down to a point as of Tuesday afternoon. The Bears are a team still in transition but the signs are pointing up and namely, those of quarterback Justin Fields. He took some early lumps but last season, he showed what he is capable of. He played his best against the best as he had a 103.4 passer rating against playoff teams last year which was 19.22 points better than his total 2022 rating and also 23.7 points better than his career passer rating of 79.7. Green Bay is not a playoff team but still a good team and a step up in the division. And now he has D.J. Moore to throw to. With Aaron Rodgers and his 24-5 record against Chicago departed, this is the chance for the Bears to finally strike and why not right out of the gate. The Packers have a solid roster and are expected to contend in the NFC North based on the odds but actually have only a one game higher win total than the Bears at 7.5. The Wild Card here obviously is Trey Lance who is taking over at quarterback and all indications are that he is ready but is he ready for Game One on the road in a brutal environment? We say not yet. While the Bears defense was bad last season at No. 31 in yards per play, they will be better, yet on the other side, Green Bay was not much better at No. 28. 10* (470) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Rams went through an injury plagued season last year and bottomed out at 5-12 after winning the Super Bowl. The numbers are calling for Los Angeles to not be good once again as it has a win total of just 6.5 and is at +1,000 to win the NFC West but this could very well be a surprise team, that is if they can stay healthy. They are unfortunately most likely going to be down Cooper Kupp in this one with his hamstring injury but the offense should be just fine with a healthy Matthew Stafford at quarterback and good replacements behind Kupp along with the rebound of Cam Akers. Seattle was a bad team defensively and while it brought in some good pieces, there is still a lot of questions after finishing No. 23 in yards per play. Overall, Seattle was a pleasant surprise last season but there should be regression and that should come from quarterback Geno Smith as potential success this season is for him to at least replicate what he did last season. But he faded down the stretch with over half of his 11 interceptions coming in the last six games. He completed 64 percent or more of his passes in all of his first 12 games but did so just once in his last five. He won Comeback Player of the Year with no expectations but now the pressure is on. The Rams defense is getting younger, quicker, and it should be stronger as long as the rotation up front is better around Aaron Donald. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We are going to the first lined game of the schedule with Carolina heading to Atlanta in a divisional opener. This number is where it typically stands for a divisional game although it has gone up a half-point in some places but that should not be a factor here. Atlanta is coming off consecutive 7-10 seasons under coach Arthur Smith, who has stated that there has been noticeable energy and confidence throughout the summer and the locker room atmosphere is different and in a good way. The Falcons have made improvements, most notably on defense where they were No. 27 overall and No. 23 in points allowed as they signed safety Jessie Bates III, defensive linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell and linebacker Kaden Elliss. Offensively, Desmond Ridder has the job at quarterback after making four starts last season with each one getting progressively better. He has the weapons including rookie running back Bijan Robinson who is expected to be a playmaker. Carolina is starting fresh with new head coach Frank Reich and a rookie starter at quarterback in Bryce Young. He is surrounded by several recently added signees in running back Miles Sanders, tight end Hayden Hurst and receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. The issue is Young is still a rookie and going back over a decade, rookie quarterbacks on the road are 21-120-1. The Panthers defense is good but below average and that will not be enough here. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Sunday Signature Enforcer. The Vikings were one of the positive surprises in the league last season as they ended up 13-4 and won the NFC North by four games and there is definitely going to be regression. The line dictates they start right where they left off but the problem is where they left off was not good as they fell at home to the Giants in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and that was probably a truer indication of the teams than its regular season record. Minnesota was 11-0 in one score games last season and it won seven of those games by less than what it is laying here and the Vikings finished the season No. 1 in NFL Luck Ratings and yes that is an actual thing. The offense revolves around wide receiver Justin Jefferson with quarterback Kirk Cousins getting the ball to him as much as possible and the addition of rookie Jordan Addison will aide in the loss of Adam Theilen. The loss of Dalvin Cook is significant as the running game is unproven. Defensively, Minnesota was horrible as it finished No. 30 in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay can benefit from that with Baker Mayfield taking over at quarterback. No, he has not been good but he has been put in some bad situations with revolving coaches and coordinators and has plenty of weapons here. Defensively, Tampa Bay finished 11th in opponent EPA per play last season and should remain strong in 2023 with a top front seven unit. Overinflated line. 10* (461) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. This is an intriguing opening night matchup with the reining Super Bowl Champions against one of the top sleeper teams coming into the season. Kansas City won its final five regular season games to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit against the Eagles to claim its second Super Bowl in four years and there is little reason to believe they will not be in the running again. The number is fairly big in this matchup but giving head coach Andy Reid this much time to prepare, the Chiefs will be ready. Counting just the regular season and excluding the COVID year, Kansas City is 28-5 at home and will no doubt want to make a statement. The Lions will want to make their own statement as well as they are hyped up for a big season and are the favorites to win the NFC North at +140 and fourth in the NFC at +1,100 to win the conference. Detroit closed strong last season with wins in eight of its last 10 games but only three of those wins were against playoff teams and two of those were at home. Early money has come in on the Lions dropping this line from 7 to 6.5 in some places and that is under the key number we want if attainable. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. We do not expect the Chiefs to miss the playoffs anyway and they fall into the great spot of hosting this game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-3 although one of those losses was last season with the Rams. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. The Eagles are the very popular choice to win this game as it is hard to find many people liking the Chiefs but we are one of those with a lot of that based on this line. It opened as a pickem and moved to -1.5 and has remained steady despite two-thirds of the money coming in on the Eagles and we are using that nonmovement as a small factor. The key to this game is in the trenches where the Eagles are getting all of the pub to have the advantage but that is not really the case. Two years ago, the Chiefs were undone by the Buccaneers pass rush and many expect the same here as the Eagles led the league in sacks but the Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line since then and are an underrated unit heading into this game. They led the league in pass block win rate this season at 76 percent so they can neutralize Philadelphia along the line of scrimmage. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback they have faced in the postseason by a wide margin and while there is concern about his mobility due to his sprained ankle, he should be just fine and can find other ways to avoid constant pressure. On the other side, the Chiefs were second in sacks so they can also generate pressure against one of the best offensive lines in the league. There are no other secrets in any other key areas or injury concerns that will deter the numbers that are coming in. While Philadelphia had the better regular season and has dominated the postseason, it was not tested by the Giants or the 49ers who were down to their fourth string quarterback and during the regular season, it faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL so if it played even an average schedule, the results may have been different. 10* (101) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Championship Enforcer. While it would have been ideal to play this earlier in the week when the Chiefs were +2.5 but not everyone would have had access to that number and it was fairly certain that this line would come back to at least close to even based on injury news. That is exactly what has happened is that all reports stated the Patrick Mahomes has had very few limitations toward the end of the week and took every snap on Friday during practice. Even though the Chiefs have flipped back to the favorite, there is plenty of line value on then here at home. The Bengals were getting six points at Buffalo last week and now the number has dipped drastically against a better team despite any injury concerns. Part of the reason for this is that Cincinnati has crushed this season in this price range as it is 12-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown or an underdog and that includes a win here in Kansas City in Week 13 and that brings up a narrative that has been all over the place this week stating that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and do not think so a second the Chiefs are using that in their own favor. Cincinnati formulated a great gameplan last week against Buffalo to compensate what was a big disadvantage along the offensive line as there were plenty of quick throws by Burrow to alleviate the pressure but with film from that, the Chiefs now have more to look at and get ready for. The Bengals also had an advantage with the snow as it is much tougher for defensive linemen to get their leverage which also slowed down the pass rush. Now they will be facing a Kansas City defense that registered 55 sacks this season, second to only Philadelphia in the league. While Sean McDermont did not formulate a good gameplan on offense against Cincinnati, rest assured Andy Reid will even though he has lost the last three matchups but all three of those were decided by a field goal so they could have gone either way. Now that we know Mahomes is at least 80-90 percent, the value is squarely on the better team at home. 10* (324) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Dominator. The Eagles rolled the Giants in the Divisional Round and it was a mix of Philadelphia regaining its dominant form along with New York not being at the level we thought. They take a big step up in competition here but playing at home makes up for a lot of that and they are obviously laying a much smaller price this week. Philadelphia outgained the Giants by 189 total yards and did so without much trying later in the game when it was out of reach. The Eagles basically had one bad game the entire season when Jalen hurts was healthy and that was their only loss when he started which was against Washington and a lot of that came down to turnovers where they had four which led to the Commanders having a 2-1 edge in time of possession. The 49ers possess the No. 1 defense but the Eagles are not far behind at No. 2, trailing by less that a yard per game and they have the edge in this particular matchup. Philadelphia has the second highest pressure rate without blitzing in the NFL so Brock Purdy will be under constant stress all day. Purdy has been a great story as he is 8-0 in the eight games since coming in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo including 7-0 as a starter. Six of those games were at home with the two road games coming at Seattle and Las Vegas so this will be his first real test in a real environment. The 49ers escaped against Dallas last week as San Francisco capitalized on turnovers which kept the game close and they eventually pulled away in the fourth quarter. The 49ers struggled on offense as the Cowboys defense pretty much dictated the game throughout. They will have the same problems here as the Eagles will take out the middle of the field as this is where both teams excel and defense has advantage over offense when it comes to strength against strength. If there is one weakness of the 49ers defense, it is their struggles against mobile quarterbacks and while Hurts did not have a massive game on the ground, he did not have to and he looked healthy which is most important. 10* (322) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. We have a great situational matchup here favoring the 49ers and we can take advantage of a short line. Also, San Francisco has a big edge with two extra days of rest plus the travel aspect. We played against Dallas on Monday and that obviously ended up being a horrible call as Tampa Bay confirmed it was a fraud and the regular season was no deception. Give the Cowboys credit for playing one of their best games of the season on both sides of the ball but we can expect some regression here as teams coming off performances like that rarely repeat it unless they are an elite team and Dallas is not quite in that category. And now they step up in competition in a big way against the hottest team in the conference. This is the fourth straight road game for the Cowboys and the travel could have caught up especially with the cross country aspect in back-to-back weeks. Dallas had its best offensive performance since November but this is where the real regression will come into play as it faces the No. 1 defense in the league in both points allowed and total yards allowed. Seattle played well on Saturday to start the game as it actually took a lead into halftime against the 49ers but San Francisco put the pedal down in the second half as it scored 25 unanswered points before allowing a late garbage touchdown. While the defense is the strength of this team, the offense is hardly a liability. The 49ers amassed 505 yards of total offense against the Seahawks which was the most put up since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback and he is looking more comfortable each game. The Seahawks defense is dreadful so that had something to do with it but this team is loaded with talent around him which has certainly helped the transition. It is now 11 straight wins for the 49ers and in dominating fashion as they have outgained the opponent in 10 of those. San Francisco is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (318) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We see some great value with this line in what will be another very emotional home game for the Bills. This is a rematch of the canceled Monday night game that had the unfortunate and ultimately, inspiring moment going forward with Damar Hamlin and now Buffalo gets the Bengals at home at a relatively short price after also closing as a favorite on the road in that first matchup. The Bills got away with one as they won by a field goal despite dominating the Dolphins but were hurt by three turnovers, one that led to a fumble return for a touchdown. The offense did its normal thing and the defense allowed just 219 yards and while that was against a third string quarterback and it takes a big step up here, the matchup is in its favor. The Bengals had a very legitimate shot at losing to Baltimore and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley as they trailed for most of the game but took the lead for good on defensive lineman Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard fumble return touchdown for a 14-point swing. The Bengals were outgained 364-234 as they had no running game and Joe Burrow was unable to stretch the field as he had just 209 yards passing. There is more bad news for the offense as Cincinnati entered Sunday already without two of its five starting linemen due to injuries and lost left tackle Jonah Williams and the production of the offense was greatly impacted by that. The Ravens had nine players with a quarterback pressure after that and Buffalo had eight players record two-plus pressures against a mediocre Miami offensive line so the Bills have a huge edge here. The defense was bailed out by that fumble return and will nor face a totally different test here as Buffalo is ranked No. 2 in both total offense and scoring offense. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 70 and 95 rushing ypg and after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 95 and 125 rushing ypg. This situation is 108-62 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Giants on Sunday and while a lot of that was playing against an overrated Vikings team, New York showed a lot of good things and deserve to be here. The Giants outgained Minnesota by 99 total yards and while they succeeded against a bad defense, this coaching staff can gameplan given the opponent as Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready again. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess a defense that can play well in crunch time. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating and while facing a much better defense, the fact that he did not play in the second meeting in Week 18 is an advantage. The Eagles cruised through the regular season with a 14-3 record and obviously two of those losses came with Jalen Hurts not playing and while he did return in the season finale against the Giants, he was not great as he put up a 65.1 passer rating. The Eagles did go vanilla in that game and while he gets extra rest, there is still a concern with his shoulder and his excellent running game could be deterred. This is a dominant team when fully healthy but they are down some key players on defense but the other big one is tackle Lane Johnson who is down with an abdominal injury and comes in as questionable and will clearly not be 100 percent if he can go. Coming off the bye, Philadelphia is going to be a big public play as some will perceive this line being a short one but it its last two home games with all starter in, it was favored by less over Tennessee and Green Bay. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 37-8 ATS (82.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) New York Giants

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Wildcard Game of the Month. Tampa Bay was probably the most underachieving team in the league this season and was fortunate to have played in the weakest division in the NFL. That being said, Tom Brady has excelled in these positions before and is battle tested that can will his team to a win. He is coming off his worst passer rating since coming to Tampa Bay but he has been sharper with the vertical attack of late with the exception of a pair of bad games against Cincinnati and San Francisco and we cannot put Dallas on those levels. The Buccaneers closed the season 1-6 against the number and that is playing into the fact it is an underdog in this game and while its 4-4 record at home is not great, it needs to be respected. Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen could be activated this week after missing the regular season with a knee injury and this would be a massive boost to the offensive line. Dallas is coming off a clunker in the season finale but it was just going through the motions so we can probably discount that. Still, the Cowboys have not been playing well with some close wins and in the last four victories, they have faced Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs and they have been outgained in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were solid at home with an 8-1 record but are just 4-4 on the road and are at a disadvantage at quarterback. Dak Prescott is currently playing the worst football of his career and he has tossed 15 interceptions this season despite playing only 12 games and he had an awful performance in the first meeting with Tampa Bay. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (152) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This line stinks. These teams played less than a month ago with the Vikings closing as a 4.5-point favorite as they won by three points on a last second 61-yard field goal and that result is partially dictating the line this week. Minnesota was outgained by 92 yards as it allowed 445 yards which has been the only time the Giants have eclipsed 400 yards in their last seven games as this defense is bad but New York was hurt by two costly turnovers. The Vikings have been outgained in six of their last nine games and they return home where they are 8-1 but seven of those wins were by only one possession with 11 of their 13 overall wins coming within that as well. They are the only team in NFL history that has at least 12 wins to go along with a negative point differential. The betting markets have caught up as Minnesota has dropped four of its last five games against the number. The Giants had nothing to play for last week against the Eagles, did not play most starters and still kept the game close. Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess the much better defense. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating which was tied for No. 13 in the league and he was tied with, you guessed it, Kirk Cousins. His success can be credited to Daboll without question. Saquon Barkley had only 84 yards rushing in the first meeting but he ran it just 14 times and now faces a defense that has allowed an average of 138.7 ypg over the last six weeks. The Giants are 5-1 when Barkley gets 20 or more carries and that will definitely be the goal here as long as they do not get down big early. 10* (147) New York Giants

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers closed the season with wins in four of their last five games with the loss being the meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. They did play starters longer than expected with came with mixed opinions but they did not lose any rhythm which is a big part. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well over the second half of the season with a rating of 100 or higher in five of his last eight games and he presents a tough matchup for the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have faced Joshua Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson over their last three games so they were not tested while allowing only 22 combined points in those games. On the season, Jacksonville finished No. 30 in DVOA and were one of just five teams that allowed 4,000 yards passing. Herbert was banged up earlier in the season and he has dealt with many key teammates missing time as well and the Chargers are relatively healthy heading into the postseason. He threw for 297 yards in the first meeting this season but he had broken ribs. Jacksonville meanwhile has won five straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last three have come against the Jets, Texans and Titans which went a combined 4-20 over the last eight weeks and it took a fumble recovery for a touchdown to win last week. Trevor Lawrence has played well over the second half of the season as well but he was not sharp last week and is not as consistent as Herbert has been. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 65-28 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (143) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Here is another easy scenario for Green Bay as a win and it is in the playoffs so the task at hand is to win its fifth straight game but the markets have adjusted here as well. The advanced line prior to the conclusion of the games last week had Green Bay -3 and it was quickly moved up because the Packers are going to be a big betting favorite this week and we are now catching value on the other side over a key number. In the Packers four victories, they were outgained in three of those as they only outyarded the Rams at home. Green Bay does nothing particularly well as it is ranked middle of the pack in all major statistical categories with the exception of its solid passing defense. The situation is a lot different for Detroit as it not only needs to win but also have Seattle lose earlier in the day. Because of this, the Lions will know their fate before kickoff but if Seattle wins, that does not mean they are going to pack in it. They might be disappointed once the news comes if the Seahawks are victorious, but they will be playing just as hard as this is a divisional rival and a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Packers from going to the playoffs. Teams do not pack it in in situations like this as players are still going all out for themselves, their contracts and their futures and Dan Campbell is not going down easy for anyone. This offense remains one of the best and keeps it in this one. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems off a win against a division rival, in January games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC West Game of the Month. It is an easy scenario for Seattle but not in its own control as it has to win here and have the Packers lose to Detroit Sunday night so this is a must win and in the final week of the regular season, these must wins scenarios force the markets to make adjustments. The advanced line was Seattle -3 and after its victory last week to keep its playoff hopes alive, the line jumped considerably as the Seahawks are a must win team that the public will be all over. We played against them last week and the Jets offense could not get anything going while Seattle was able to rush for 198 yards which was very uncharacteristic of the New York defense and Seattle will be facing another strong rushing defense here. It has been an up and down run for Los Angeles since Baker Mayfield took over as the Rams are 2-2 following a loss last week against the Chargers but they continue to play hard and would like nothing more than to eliminate Seattle from playoff contention. The win over Las Vegas was followed up by a horrible road effort at Green Bay with the weather playing a role in that and despite the loss last week, the running game has gotten potent again as they have gained 158 and 166 yards on the ground the last two weeks. Comparing the line to last week against the Chargers, Los Angeles is getting just a half-point less against a team not on the same level as the Chargers. Value and contrarian makes Los Angeles the play here and the Rams could use a big boost going into the offense after a disappointing campaign. 10* (451) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is the lone game we are going against a non-playoff team as Arizona is trash right now. The Cardinals have lost six straight games and while the last two were by four points combined including one in overtime, those were against bad teams in Atlanta and Tampa Bay and were already dominated once in the earlier matchup. The loss of Kyler Murray, who has played in just 10 games, has been a big reason for the rough season but he was not playing that well when he was in the lineup. This is a big number to lay but the situation calls for it and is backed up by a great one noted at the end. The 49ers are still competing for seeding in the NFC as they can clinch the No. 1 spot with a win and an Eagles loss and while the latter is unlikely, these games are being played at the same time so there will be no reason to let up unless they are scoreboard watching in the second half but they could already be winning huge by that point. San Francisco has won nine straight games and wants to keep this momentum rolling into the postseason no matter where it sits in the standings. The 49ers have been outgained only once over this stretch thanks to a top two defense and a top five offense behind Brock Purdy and his 101.4 quarterback rating to go along with his 10:4 TD/INT ratio. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (468) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the third instance of going against an overinflated line favoring a team that needs to win to have a chance to get to the postseason. Pittsburgh has made a late season push as it has won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 and not only to try and secure a playoff spot but also finish without a losing record, something that has never happened under head coach Mike Tomlin. The win last week over Baltimore was a good one but it was against a second string quarterback and the other four wins over this recent stretch were all against teams with a worst record than Cleveland. The defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to fewer than 300 total yards but are in a tricky spot here. It is tricky because they are facing Deshaun Watson who has not been good through five starts but is coming off his best game with a 122.5 passer rating against a solid Washington defense as he finally showed flashes of what he is capable of even though he threw the ball only 18 times. His ability to run can cause problems here as the Steelers have not faced a quarterback like this since facing Jalen Hurts in late October. The Browns were expected to have a not so great season without Watson for 11 games and that came to fruition but still possess the No. 6 rushing offense to go along with an above average defense. Here, we play against home favorites in a game involving two teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after a game where they forced one or less turnovers. This situation is 69-35 ATS (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Tennessee and Jacksonville have taken different routes in the second half of the season to get to this point where the Week 18 matchup decides the division. The Titans come in riding a six-game losing streak but three of those were one possession games while two of the blowouts were against Super Bowl contenders Philadelphia and Dallas and the sixth came against this Jacksonville team which adds some added juice even though that is not needed with what is on the line. While they have been outgained in all six of those games, only one, the game against the Eagles, was a complete domination and the other four were by just an average of 46.4 ypg so while the losses have accumulated, it has not been a complete implosion. Tennessee treated last week as basically a bye week as the game against Dallas meant nothing and it was still a game early in the fourth quarter so it comes in with a bunch of rested players which is at a perfect time. Joshua Dobbs gets the start at quarterback and he was not great but was able to move the ball vertically with no running game behind him and a healthy Derrick Henry along with a superior defense makes them a live dog here. Jacksonville meanwhile has won four straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last two have come against the Jets and Texans which are a combined 2-12 over the last seven weeks. The play of Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding over the last eight weeks with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions although he did not throw a touchdown pass in either of the last two games. The overall offense has moved into the top ten but they are still facing a tough defense in a divisional game and based on recent results, the Jaguars number is overinflated. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (457) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The betting market has caught up to the Vikings as they have dropped three straight against the number including the last two games where they won outright by a field goal but failed to win by margin. Minnesota is now an underdog for just the third time in their last 14 games and we see the value. The Vikings clinched the division two games back and still have an outside shot for the No. 1 seen in the NFC should they win out and the Eagles lose their last two games. They will know the Philadelphia result before this game kicks off but they are not going to rest anyone in this divisional game that has a lot of meaning on its own as they will rest starters in Week 18 should they lock up the No. 2 seed but keep in mind they also are out to hold off the 49ers who are one game back. The Packers, who were left for dead a few weeks ago, have gotten back into the playoff mix as they have won three straight games but two of those were against the Bears and Rams and the other against the imploding Dolphins. The offense has picked it up after a slow start but the Packers could be without one of their best weapons as Christian Watson is questionable with a hip injury as he has not practiced all week. The Vikings have the offense that can have success against the passing defense of Green Bay and a lot of that will be to utilize the running game as there are only two teams that have a worse adjusted rush defense EPA than the Packers and those are the Seahawks and Bears. Betting against Aaron Rodgers in these spots is never easy but the Vikings are the clear side. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. The Jets and Seahawks, both of which looked to be playoff locks at one point in the season, have fallen on hard times and this is a must win game for both teams. The Jets have to win here and win next week in Miami so a loss here and their chances are done. New York has lost four straight games and is in much better shape at this point from a roster standpoint as they gladly welcome back quarterback Mike White who missed the last two games with a rib injury after Zach Wilson basically buried the Jets over those last two games. In the two losses prior to that at Buffalo and at Minnesota, New York outgained both opponents and both were there for the taking and now they will be facing their fifth straight opponent that is in the playoffs or still alive for a spot and it is the worst team of the bunch. While the offense has struggled with the inconsistent quarterback play, the defense is as good as it gets, ranked No. 3 overall and No. 4 in points allowed. Seattle has lost three straight games, also against playoff or playoff contending teams, and it has been outgained in four of its last six games. this team has been overrated all season long and going into Week 17, the Seahawks are ranked No. 30 in net adjusted EPA, ahead of only the Cardinals and Bears. This is mainly based on the defense which has been atrocious from day one. They are raked No. 29 in both total defense and scoring defense and are equally bad in both areas. Seattle has a bottom-10 pass rush, which has attributed to the secondary being left on an island and the rushing defense is even worse where they are second to last in the league. Here, we play on road teams involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (123) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The second to final week of the regular season is usually very important for teams trying to make a playoff spot but that is not the case here. Similar to Tennessee on Thursday, the season for Jacksonville comes down to next week in its home game against the Titans which will decide the AFC South win or lose here. The Titans rested a lot of players against the Cowboys and while the Jaguars have not announced anything as of yet, it would not be surprising for Doug Pederson to pull players as to remain healthy as he has done so in the past. Jacksonville is a sell team right now as it has won and covered three straight games to improve to 7-8 and while it is playing well, it has benefitted from a Tennessee meltdown to get into this position. The Jaguars offense remains the strength behind a great second half from quarterback Trevor Lawrence but the defense is well below average to give the Texans offense a chance for some success. Houston snapped a nine-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and this provides its final opportunity to pick up a win at home as it is 0-6-1 which includes six consecutive losses. It has been an expected difficult season for the Texans but to their credit, they have played hard through the first 16 weeks as they have covered three straight games against either playoff or potential playoff teams and while they could have packed it in long ago, they have not. They did catch a break last week facing Tennessee with a backup quarterback but they have had the Jaguars number with nine straight wins in this series and while some of that is meaningless, there are matchup edges. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Detroit was rolling along with three straight wins and victories in six of its last seven games before getting exposed by Carolina last week as it allowed 37 points against one of the worst offenses in the NFL to severely hurt its playoff chances. The Lions are now 7-8 which is tied with Seattle and Green Bay, a half-game behind Washington for the final wild card spot in the NFL and are now favored for just the fifth time this season and by far the most the points they have laid. The one huge liability last week was the rushing defense as they allowed the Panthers to rush for 320 yards on 43 carries (7.4 ypc) and now face a team where rushing offense is the strength. The Lions do possess a strong offense but with that defense, any team can hang around. Chicago has lost eight straight games following a 22-point loss to Buffalo last week in horrible playing conditions and it closes out a lousy season with a pair of divisional games including this spoiler attempt. The Bears have covered only once in their last six games which creates value and those are the streaks we love going against especially in a divisional matchup. Despite gaining just 80 yards on the ground last week against Buffalo, the Bears still possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL. That poses well here and even more so knowing they rushed for 258 yards in the first meeting that resulted in a one point loss after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead that was aided by an interception returned for a touchdown by the Lions. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Since winning against La Vegas in the first games for interim head coach Jeff Saturday, the Colts have lost four straight games and were outgained in all four of those. The new coaching staff has not been ideal at making halftime adjustments as the Colts have been outscored 72-9 in the second half and in overtime over the last two games which has obviously been the difference. The offense has done nothing as they have averaged only 306.0 ypg. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been a lawn chair and he has now been benched for a second time this season in favor of Nick Foles and this is the jumpstart this offense needs. We have already seen it a few times this season when a new starter enters and the team is energized. The absence of Jonathan Taylor is a big one at running back but Indianapolis will be facing a defense that has underwhelmed on the road, allowing 24 and 27 points over the last two games at Arizona and at Las Vegas. The Chargers have won three of their last four games and have a chance to clinch a playoff berth but they have underwhelmed this season. Of the eight victories, seven have come by one possession including five by a field goal or less. The Colts defense has been playing solid when using their normal schemes and they have a chance to disrupt Justin Herbert here. He has been pressured 201 times this season, which trails only Kirk Cousins and the Colts tied at No. 7 in sacks so this is where they sloe this offense down. While the Colts second half woes have been a problem, it should not carry over here as Los Angeles has no third-quarter touchdowns in its last nine games and has been outscored 175-109 in the second half and overtime this year. Defensively, Los Angeles has looked better the last two weeks and the matchup looks to be in its favor but in seven road games, it has allowed 24 or more points five times. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last two weeks of the regular season. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. This is going to be a very public play which we despise but they do come through at times and we are giving Tampa Bay another shot this week after it blew a 17-0 lead against the Bengals as turnovers and penalties at the wrong time led to Cincinnati scoring 34 unanswered points to pull away. The Buccaneers did outplay Cincinnati from a statistical standpoint as they won the yardage battle by 159 total yards but not many teams are going to win when turning the ball over four times. This line has shot up considerably since opening at 3.5 but that is not a concern with this play as we are finally expecting that break out Tampa Bay game that we have really yet to see this season with the biggest two wins coming in the first two weeks of the season. Last week, the Bengals made the adjustments with the most notable applying more pressure to Tom Brady and it worked and with Cincinnati ranked No. 9 in pressure rating, Tampa Bay has faced three straight teams ranked No. 15 or better in pressure and that will be far from the case here with Arizona near the bottom of the league in that category. The Cardinals have completely bottomed out as the loss of Kyler Murray three plays into the New England game was their last shot to be competitive. They have lost four straight games and last week at Denver proved that as they allowed 24 points to the Broncos which was just the fourth time Denver has surpassed 20 points this season and the offense was absolutely useless. Arizona managed just 240 yards of offense and while that was one of the better defenses in the NFL, it will be facing another one here. Trace McSorley came in for an injured Colt McCoy and was ineffective and while he is getting a full week with the first team at practice in prep for this game, he will be outmatched again. Tampa Bay is No. 7 in total defense and they bring in the No. 10 ranked pressure rate and can easily keep this offense in check. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Raiders were on the fortunate side of that Patriots game as they completed an improbable win on the last play of the game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. This is a very tough spot coming off that victory with a long travel assignment and Las Vegas has struggled on the road as it is 2-6 and both of those wins easily could have been losses as they both came in overtime. That is part of three of their last four wins being walk off victories so the 6-8 record could be even worse but to their credit, they also possess some close defeats. The offense is ranked No. 11 both overall and in scoring but has a tough task here facing a defense that is playing its best on the season. The Raiders own defense is an issue as they are ranked No. 24 overall and No. 23 in scoring and while not facing a great offense here, they have allowed even worse offenses to look good against them at times earlier this season. The Steelers are coming off a win at Carolina to match the Raiders 6-8 record to keep their own playoff hopes alive and their road is a lot easier as they have Baltimore and Cleveland left after this. It has been a good turnaround as Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last six games following a 2-6 start and the overall record is more impressive considering the Steelers have played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the league. Five of their eight losses came by one possession and two other losses came at Buffalo and at Philadelphia. The return of T.J. Watt has changed this defense completely as they are now again able to apply a lot of pressure and that will be the difference here as they have allowed only 16.3 over their last four games. 10* (474) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Year. Give Houston credit for having a chance to win its last two games against Kansas City and Dallas but came up just short in both and that puts the Texans in a bad letdown spot. They lost in overtime against the Chiefs but it was definitely misleading as Houston was dominated, getting outgained by 282 total yards as the offense managed only 219 total yards and 15 first downs. This came after a last possession loss against the Cowboys where it was outgained there as well and it has now been five straight games where the Texans have been outgained with the offense going over 300 total yards just once and have averaged just 237.4 ypg over that stretch. Houston possesses the worst total offense in the league and is ranked No. 27 or worse in seven of the eight major statistical categories. This includes being dead last in rushing defense which is not ideal in this spot as it should get pounded on the ground. They are getting outgained by over 72 ypg on the road including close to 67 ypg on the ground. Houston is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg. Tennessee looked to have the AFC South wrapped up not too long ago but has lost four straight games which has brought Jacksonville right back into the mix as the Titans are in first place by just one game over the Jaguars. The schedule was in their favor early on but during this four-game skid, all have come against teams currently sitting in definite or possible playoff spots and that does include a loss against Jacksonville two weeks ago which could make the Week 18 matchup at Jacksonville for the division. The Titans need this game for that reason especially with a home game against Dallas on deck and with the recent struggles, there is no chance to take Houston lightly. This offense has struggled all season but this is the best matchup it has seen over its last eight games going back to the first meeting with Houston where it outgained the Texans by 193 total yards which made that seven-point win a deceiving one as well with the Texans scoring a meaningless touchdown with 17 seconds left. The Titans are ranked No. 5 in offensive touchdown red zone percentage and that is important here to pull this game wide open. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The run of Detroit is one of the top stories in the NFL as after a 1-6 start to the season, the Lions have won six of their last seven games while covering all of those games with the only outright loss coming against Buffalo on Thanksgiving by three points. Now, the Lions are in unfamiliar territory as they are laying points on the road for the first time this season and for the first time since 2020, a span of 20 games on the highway. It has not been a very dominating run however as Detroit has been outgained in four of these seven games including two of the three games that have been on the road. The offense was humming along with 31 or more points in four of five games before scoring just 20 points last week against a solid Jets defense and Detroit will face another good defense this week. The NFC South is a mess and Carolina is right in that mess as the Panthers are still alive for the playoffs despite their 5-9 record. It is plain and simple as if they win out, they win the division with an 8-9 record with next week being the real deciding game when they go to Tampa Bay but they are certainly not looking past this game. Carolina has gone 3-2 over its last five games to get into this situation and it needs to be emphasized that the two losses came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two defenses that have been playing at a high level and that is something that Detroit cannot claim. The Panthers offense has been bad all season but against this defense, quarterback P.J. Walker and the solid running game have the possibility for a big game, similar to what they did against the Falcons in both meetings that have taken place over their last seven games. 10* (458) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Saturday Ultimate Underdog. New England cannot be coming off a worst loss as it look like it was going to actually win before a controversial scoring call and then that lateral debacle on the final play. That is tough to recover from but the Patriots are still in the playoff hunt and a return home should get them energized again. They have the toughest remaining stretch of any team vying for a playoff spot as the combined record of their three final opponents is 29-13 so it is going to take their best mini stretch of the season along with getting some help. New England has lost three of four but two of those games could have and should have gone their as two really bad calls went against them. The Patriots defense is what needs to keep them into this game and it should as the unit is ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense while sitting in the top ten both against the run and pass. Cincinnati keeps rolling along following a win over the Buccaneers last week to improve to 10-4 which put the Bengals a game up on the Ravens atop the AFC North and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won 10 of 12 games following a 0-2 start and they are 11-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Following back-to-back home wins against the Chiefs and a divisional win over the Browns, and then the come-from-behind win against Tampa Bay last week, this is an awful spot but the public still obviously loves them. The Bengals are laying the same number they did last week which is flawed as the Patriots are a better team than the Buccaneers but it is based on recency bias and the linemakers had to put the line this high. 10* (460) New England Patriots

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We were waiting for the official news of Jets quarterback Mike White to see what sort of line would be established and the Jets are in good shape to snap its three-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention. Currently, New York is tied with New England on the outside looking in at 7-7, one game behind the Chargers and Dolphins so this has turned into a must win with this being the last home game and two games remaining on the road against playoff contenders Seattle and Miami. Zach Wilson was inserted back into the lineup last week and while he was far from great, he was not horrible, throwing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He gave the Jets the lead but the defense allowed the game-winning 51-yard touchdown pass with 1:49 remaining. That defense is still extremely solid as they are ranked No. 3 overall, No. 4 in passing, No. 11 in rushing and No. 5 in scoring so now it is up to the offense to get going and this is a good spot to do so. Jacksonville was a winner for us last week as the Jaguars scored on a pick six in overtime to defeat Dallas and keep their division hopes alive. They have won four of their last six games with both of those losses coming on the road where they are 2-5 and while their offense is starting to peak, they have a tough road test here. Trevor Lawrence has come into his own recently as five of his last six games has seen him post a passer rating of 106 or higher while throwing for 14 touchdowns and just one interception. He will have problems here though, especially playing on a short week with travel involved. The Jacksonville defense has been the liability as it is ranked No. 27 overall and No. 21 in scoring and its passing defense has been the real issue with a No. 29 ranking so this is the spot for White. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (452) New York Jets

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Rams are coming off a big come-from-behind win over Las Vegas last Thursday as Baker Mayfield propelled Los Angeles despite being with the team for just two days. Now that he has had time to get into the playbook, many will expect a good effort on that side of the ball but there is still very little to work with because of numerous players out. The offense has managed to average only 266.3 ypg over their last three games and we cannot see them keeping up here. Even with the extra time off, the Rams defense also continue to be plagued with injuries. Defensive lineman Aaron Donald (ankle), defensive tackle Marquise Copeland (ankle), linebacker Travin Howard (hip) and defensive back David Long Jr. (groin) have all been ruled out. The Rams are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is coming off its bye week which came later than it would have liked but it was good timing for its quarterback situation as Aaron Rodgers was a full participant in practice this week for all three practices, a first since his thumb injury against the New York Giants. The Packers are back home the first time in a month following a pair of road games prior to the bye where they are 3-2. The offense has struggled to score points consistently but Green Bay is still ranked in the top half of the league in total offense, rushing offense and passing offense and facing a depleted defense is just what it needs to cure the scoring woes. The weather is in their favor as according to PFR, the Rams have played five games with a kickoff temperature of 15 or colder in their whole existence, the last coming in 1992. Green Bay is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (332) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Cincinnati keeps rolling along following a win over the Browns last week to improve to 9-4 which kept the Bengals tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North but are now a half-game up following the Baltimore loss Saturday and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won nine of 11 games following a 0-2 start and they are 10-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Following back-to-back home wins against the Chiefs and then a division rival, this is an awful spot against a team no one wants to touch. Cincinnati is 4-3 on the road which includes no quality win. That begs the question is Tampa Bay a quality team? The Buccaneers are coming off a brutal loss against San Francisco following a last second win over the Saints and an overtime loss against Browns so they are stuck in a bad place but this still one of the better rosters in the league. The offense has not been able to get much going with Tom Brady but they have been so close and they are facing a passing defense that has struggled as the Bengals are No. 20 in the NFL in passing defense. Get some sort of rushing game going and they will be good. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against a team with forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (328) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. Dallas is a massive public favorite this week based on the short line and who it is playing based on name which makes this another great contrarian spot. The Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak that includes three straight home wins and that alone is a tough spot playing on the road for the first time in a month. Dallas is 7-1 at home and get that extra home game based on the new schedules and get the Eagles there next week but come in only 3-2 on the highway with two of those wins coming against the overrated Giants and Vikings and the other against the hapless Rams. We cannot count out Jacksonville just yet. With a 2-1 record over its next three games coupled with a 1-2 Tennessee run in its next three games means a Week 18 showdown will decide the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jaguars got into this spot with a 36-22 win over Tennessee last week on the road and while up and down, they are coming together when it counts with a 3-2 record over their last five games which followed a five-game losing streak but those were all decided by one possession so their record could be flipped right now. Here, we play on home teams in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (322) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We are going contrarian here with the Bears as they are coming off a bye week which makes them in a healthy spot, notably quarterback Justin Fields who was at one point possibly to have been shut down for the season and he is capable of another big game here. The Bears have lost six straight games but won the yardage battle in half of those including a +52-yard edge in the last game against Green Bay and it knows how to play to it strength which is in the running game. Chicago has the No. 1 rushing offense in the league and Fields is a big part of that and that can be exploited here against an Eagles defense that allows 6.8 ypc against opposing quarterbacks which is worst in the NFL and getting that to go along with a significant home underdog to shorten a game is ideal. The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season against Washington and followed that up with poor effort at Indianapolis but they have rebounded with three straight dominating wins and are pretty much locked in for the top seed in the NFC. This is a tough spot coming off a big divisional win against the Giants with the Cowboys on deck and they have not been exactly dominating on the road of late and getting out of here healthy with a vanilla win, especially with this being the second of three straight road games. Here, we play against favorites outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yppl, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 58-18 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Vikings had their run come to an end last week against the Lions but it has not been a good run overall despite all of the winning. While going 3-2 over its last five games, Minnesota was outgained in all of those games and while the public will be all over them here in a bounce back situation, this is a tram that cannot be trusted. The Vikings have been outgained by over 60 ypg which is unheard of for a team that is 10-3 and the NFL Luck Factor ratings are still led by Minnesota and by a wide margin and the scoring differential tells the real story as its -1-point scoring differential is the lowest by any 10-win team in NFL history. The defense is horrible as Minnesota is ranked dead last overall and in passing yards allowed. Indianapolis won in Las Vegas in the coaching debut of Jeff Saturday but has lost three straight since then but it has not been awful as the Colts have been outgained by only 46.3 ypg during this losing streak. Following their 33-point defensive meltdown against the Cowboys, the Colts had their bye week and while the roster seems depleted, having that week off got a lot of players back in the rotation. Matt Ryan has been a lawn chair but he is facing by far the worst defense he has seen since back as the starting quarterback and this is a game we should see Jonathan Taylor get his third 100-yard rushing performance this season. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 24-7 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (307) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFC West Game of the Month. The early opener for this game was San Francisco -1 and has quickly gone to -3.5 with all of the early money coming in on the 49ers and this line will likely only go up more from here as there is not a more public betting team in the NFL right now with Cincinnati a distant second as San Francisco has been all over the national limelight. The 49ers improved to 9-4 after an absolute rout of Tampa Bay in the first start for Brock Purdy to make it six straight wins but the schedule could not have been more favorable. The streak opened with a win at the hapless Rams on October 30 and that has been the last true road game they have played as four of their last five games have been at home with the other coming in Mexico City. Purdy now makes his first road start in one of the toughest environments in the league against a team in need of keeping its season alive. San Francisco has the No. 1 total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense and is the real deal but will have a road test here. The Seahawks have taken a step back with losses in three of their last four games but all three of those losses were winnable as all were by one possession and this has turned into a big game at the wrong time with the recent 49ers domination. Seattle has fallen back from being a likely playoff team to now having to deal with the Giants, Commanders and Lions for the final two spots in the NFC with those four teams separated by a game and a half. Seattle remains home where it is 3-3 and does have two more home games after this so the schedule in in its favor with nine home games and just seven road games with a neutral game mixed in there. The Seahawks are on a 0-4 run against the number so we cannot ask for a better spot especially with Pete Carroll on the sidelines as he has thrived here in Seattle going 20-8 ATS as a home underdog, 17-5 ATS at home revenging a loss and 14-3 ATS against teams 3.5 or less ypc. Historical trends are typically meaningless but these are something to definitely take into account. 10* (302) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The season is on the line for both teams here and despite the recent struggles for the Cardinals on their home field, they are in a good matchup with both sides of the ball having edges where they count. Arizona is 4-8 including a 1-5 record at home and going back it is 1-10 in its last 11 games at home but this season, the Cardinals have outgained three of six opponents here and two of those that they did not were against Kansas city and Seattle. One big edge on offense is Kyler Murray as there is one problem that Bill Belichick's defenses have struggled with for a while and that would be defending quarterbacks that can run. That has been the case this season as they have struggled against Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Josh Allen which resulted in losses to Baltimore, Chicago and Buffalo respectively and those were all on their home field. Defensively, the Cardinals are excellent against the rush as they are No. 11 and Rhamondre Stevenson was ineffective last week against the Bills and could struggle again here. The passing defense has not been as good but Arizona applies a lot of pressure on the quarterback and that is a big factor here as Mac Jones does not have the ability to make plays when under pressure as he has completed only 43.8 percent of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions. Overall, the defensive numbers are not great but the quarterbacks they have lost to are Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Herbert and Geno Smith. Sorry Mac, you are not close to being in that group. There are a lot of historic numbers, angles and trends that are on the Patriots side but last we looked, Tom Brady is no longer there. Looking at the raw power rankings and with home field added in, the wrong team is favored here. 10* (128) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Miami is coming off a poor loss last week against San Francisco as it scored on its first play from scrimmage but was shutdown pretty much the rest of the way as after that 75-yard touchdown, and another 45-yard touchdown, the Dolphins managed only 188 total yards elsewhere. This looks to be a good bounce back spot against a struggling team but it is not going to be as easy as some may think and despite having a two-game better record, Miami could be considered a false favorite here based on power rankings, namely the Sagarin rating that have these teams dead even not taking into account any home field advantage with in fairness, is basically nothing for Los Angeles. The defense is below average and after getting beat up by Brock Purdy, they have a much worse matchup here. This is a tough spot as Miami stayed in Los Angeles which is good for travel but kept them out of their normal routine as far as facilities and familiarity. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games to level out at 6-6 on the season and this is a massive game to stay in the playoff picture not only for the win but the quality victory for strength of wins if it comes down to a tiebreaker. The offense is ranked No. 13 overall and No. 14 in scoring and it is this low because of injuries, namely to wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams but both are finally heathy at the same time as this will be just the fourth time all season they will be active and playing together and this is a massive upgrade for the offense. The big weakness of the defense is against the run which happens to be the weakness for the Dolphins offense so the strength of the secondary will make it a tough matchup again for an injured Tua Tagovailoa. Here, we play against favorites with a poor turnover defense forcing one or less tpg, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (120) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC North Game of the Month. We have won and covered the last two games with the Vikings but they have been a team that can take years off your life. From a situational standpoint, they would be the play here by going against the Detroit cover streak but the bounces will eventually betray them and we feel this is that spot. Minnesota is coming off three straight home games and was outgained in all of those and by an average of 175 ypg so the fact it won those last two games is certainly fortunate but we think it is now time to jump ship. The Vikings are 3-1 on the road and were outgained in two of those and in the two they won the yardage battle, it was by 6 and 38 yards. The NFL Luck Factor ratings are still led by Minnesota and by a wide margin and the scoring differential tells the real story as its +10 point scoring differential is the lowest by any 10-win team in NFL history. Detroit has played its way back into the playoff picture in the NFC as it is now 5-7 after wins in four of its last five games with the lone loss coming against Buffalo by just a field goal on Thanksgiving. While Minnesota has won all of the close games, the Lions have been on the opposite side of that as of those seven losses, five have come by four points or less with four of those taking place at home and this is a statement game for Detroit. Those Luck Factor rating are not on their side as the Lions are No. 20 and while these analytics typically only talk about the past and not about future performance, as we all know, things come back to the median to at least a limited degree. The Lions defense remains one of the worst in the league and this is a tough matchup there but the offense makes up for it as Detroit is now No. 7 overall and No. 6 in scoring and if this game is won, the Lions are looing good the rest of the way with the last four games including three losing teams and the Jets. 10* (106) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Cincinnati is coming off a big win against Kansas City last week to improve to 8-4 which kept the Bengals tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won eight of 10 games following a 0-2 start and they are 9-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Both of those streaks along with a high-profile win against the Chiefs is putting the public all over Cincinnati as 73 percent of the money has come in on the Bengals yet the line has not budged. Red flag. They are the No. 5 total offense in the NFL and No. 7 in scoring but are facing a tough defense that brings a lot of pressure which can hurt this offensive line which has done a good job of keeping Joe Burrow upright after a poor start. Cleveland won in Houston last week as Deshaun Watson made his season debut and he was awful but that was expected in his first action in over a season and a half and with the nerves and anxiety out of the way, we should see a much better performance this week. The Browns are just 2-4 on the road which includes a bad loss against Miami but two of those losses were by three points with the other coming against Buffalo in Detroit. We expect another rush heavy gameplan as the Browns possess the No. 4 ranked rushing offense and face off against a rather average rushing defense and an overall average stop unit. The difference in the records are just three games which is not a large enough variance to constitute this line in a divisional game as linesmakers have been forced to inflate it which still is not keeping the public off. Here, we play against home teams (averaging 7.3 or more ypa and after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games going up against teams averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Rams have lost six straight games and their season is definitely over but they are now getting value as they covered last week and they are getting nearly the same amount of points this week as they did last week against the Seahawks despite the Raiders being two games worse than Seattle. The loss of Matthew Stafford has certainly hurt the offense as John Wolford was not great against the Seahawks but the second game after getting thrown into the lineup typically goes better and the Raiders do not possess a intimidating defense where they can shut him down. The best outcome last week was Cam Akers having a game after being nonexistent for most of the season and they can rely on him and overall, the Rams rushed for 171 yards on 33 carries (5.2 ypc). The defense should get Aaron Donald back and the unit has still played well as they are No. 14 overall including No. 4 against the rush and can bottle up a resurgent Josh Jacobs. The Raiders were embarrassed at home against the Colts in the coaching debut of Jeff Saturday but they have won three straight games since then but two of those were in overtime and could be in for a letdown following a rival win over the Chargers last week. Their playoff hopes remain intact as Las Vegas is currently in tenth place, two games behind the Jets for the final Wild Card spot. It has been a tough schedule of late as this is the fifth road game over their last seven games and while the distance has not been an issue, it is simply the logistics of traveling. Las Vegas does possess a top ten offense but that goes against the strength of the Rams while the defense is ranked No. 27 overall and No. 26 in points allowed which goes against the Rams weakness so this is not a very favorable matchup where they can be dominant in any one area. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss at Cleveland last week and will be a popular play this week in a bounce back spot but in the first two instances this season coming off a loss following a win prior to that, the Buccaneers lost a second straight game so it is no automatic rebound victory. It has been a bad season for Tampa Bay which is pretty apparent as this offense has been inefficient in getting the ball into the end zone. The Buccaneers have scored more than 22 points only once and they are No. 27 in the league in scoring offense. The passing game has been fine but Tampa Bay is dead last in the league in rushing offense and this is not a good matchup against the Saints defense. New Orleans is ranked No. 7 in passing defense and it allowed only 188 yards passing in the first meeting and that is one of seven times this season the Saints have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing. They get a ton of pressure on the quarterback as the Saints are No. 7 in sack percentage and it gets heightened here against an immobile quarterback. New Orleans is coming off a shutout loss at San Francisco last week which is always a good spot to play on in the next game and it will be catching a depleted Tampa Bay secondary as safety Mike Edwards, safety Antoine Winfield Jr, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting listed as doubtful or questionable. Andy Dalton could have a short leash which has already been lengthened way too long. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams averaging 235 or more passing ypg. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (477) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Bengals get to host this rematch of the AFC Championship from last season. Cincinnati has won seven of its last nine games to pull into a tie with Baltimore for first place in the AFC North and it has done so by playing seven of its first 11 games on the road. The Bengals are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming against the Steelers in Week One as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 with all three wins coming by blowout. The offense gets a huge weapon back as Ja'Marr Chase missed the last four games after a hip injury put him on IR but he returns this week and while the Bengals offense was fine without him, his return only adds to this dynamic offense, one that Kansas City has not seen during its recent five-game stretch. Cincinnati has a very underrated defense that does not get a lot of talk because it lacks any big names but is ranked in the top half of the league in all major statistical categories. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. The Chiefs have won five straight games to remain atop the AFC as they have basically gone through the motions which shows how good they obviously are. Kansas City is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in scoring offense and total offense and will definitely see a different defense than it saw last season but it is the other side that is the concern. During the Chiefs five-game winning streak, they have allowed 18.8 ppg but have not faced an offense of this strength with the 49ers offense being the best of that group as they are currently ranked No. 9 and that is only due to a recent resurgence after playing Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. Here, we play against road favorites outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yppl, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Miami has won five straight games to improve to 8-3 on the season and have control in the AFC East but there is a lot of football left and this is a very good litmus test with those five recent wins coming against some poor teams. The Dolphins are in a good spot here as if any team is going to come in with a master gameplan, it is them with head coach Mike McDaniel who came over from the 49ers so he knows this team more than any other opposing coach with him just being in San Francisco last season. Tua Tagovailoa has been outstanding since returning from his concussion as in his five starts, he has three games with a passer rating of 135 or higher and in those games overall, he has passed 1,529 yards (305.8 per game average) with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. And what makes him so dangerous is that he is the best play action quarterback in the league and he can keep the best defense in the league off balance. The Dolphins are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The 49ers are playing just as good with a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who is playing at a high level as well but like Miami, the schedule has not been overly difficult. Over their four-game winning streak, the 49ers best win came over the Chargers and they won it by only six points against a team that was severely banged up. Speaking of banged up, San Francisco, which was getting healthy once again, is now going through injuries again, namely on offense with Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell all on the injury report with Mitchell being the only definite player out but none of the other three will be at 100 percent. The Dolphins defense has been playing a lot better since early struggles and they can hold their own here. 10* (469) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Minnesota picked up a win on Thanksgiving over New England as it bounced back from that blowout home loss against Dallas and this marks the third straight home game for the Vikings and they have the advantage of playing with extended rest. That game against the Cowboys was just the third time over their last nine games they have scored fewer than 28 points and playing a tough defense has been commonplace of late as they have faced defenses ranked No. 4, No. 7, No. 8 and No. 12 over their last four games and have had success with the exception of that Dallas game. Despite the 9-2 record, the Vikings are not getting the public money here as the Jets are the new public darling and that is keeping this line down and even though the luck factor has been on their side, this is a good spot for that possible breakout game. The Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. A quarterback change did the Jets right as New York replaced Zach Wilson with Mike White and he was outstanding with 315 yards on 22-28 passing with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The came against a depleted Bears defense and now New York hits the road where it is 4-1 on the season but all four wins came against teams that are not going to be seeing the postseason. This will be a tough environment for White and while he will be facing a below average defense, the situation is not ideal. The Jets defense has been sensational of late as they have allowed 14.4 ppg over their last eight games and they have moved to No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 5 in total defense but this will be a major test. The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (452) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC East Game of the Month. This is a big divisional game for both teams, positioning for Buffalo and keeping playoff hopes alive for New England. While the Bills are tied with Miami atop the AFC East, the Dolphins currently own the first two tiebreakers with a head-to-head win and a better record within the division. The Bills are 0-2 in the division so far this season, while the Patriots (2-1), Dolphins (2-1) and Jets (2-2) are all ahead of them so New England has to avoid a loss to drop to 0-3. It has been an up and down stretch for the Bills as they have gone 2-2 over their last four games and while outgaining the opponent in three of those, they were far from dominating performances. Buffalo has shown flashes on offense, defense and special teams over this recent stretch but has not been able to put all three phases together in a single game and what better place to resolve that here. The Bills are still a top five unit in both offensive and defensive scoring and face a very inconsistent Patriots team. New England is also coming off a Thursday road game so there is no rest advantage for the Patriots which had their three-game winning streak snapped against the Vikings. The three wins were typical Bill Belichick productions as his defense allowed an average of 203.7 ypg as they were able to shut down young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson twice and San Ehlinger and of their six wins, the best quarterback they have defeated was Jared Goff as the other two wins were against Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky. The five losses were against Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins so you can see the pattern here. Offensively, New England did get a big game from Mac Jones against Minnesota but the offense managed 288, 203 and 297 total yards in those three previous victories and he is in a tough spot here. Despite the loss of Von Miller, Buffalo is getting healthy on defense around him as safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre'Davious White are off the injury list while linebacker Tremaine Edwards, who has missed the last two games, will be back this week. 10* (301) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Colts story has been nice but lets be honest, this cannot last. Indianapolis won its first game with interim coach Jeff Saturday at the helm and with the exception of some former get off my lawn head coaches, most everyone was rooting for him and the Colts nearly pulled off the double play as they lost to the Eagles at home last week by a point. While they remain home and seem to have a good matchup this week, that is not the case. Getting Matt Ryan back onto the field has added a veteran leadership but not necessarily much production as Indianapolis has averaged only 20.5 ppg and while the running game busted out for 207 yards against the Raiders, it regressed with just 99 yards against the Eagles last week and will not have success here against the No. 6 ranked rushing defense. The Steelers are coming off a tough loss last week against the red hot Bengals as they were in it for three quarters before Cincinnati pulled away. Overall, Pittsburgh has played the toughest schedule in the league with six of their games coming against the top ten and seven of 10 coming against the top 16. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been put into a tough situation with limited weapons around him and he has been able to keep them in games with the eight interceptions being his downfall but no need to worry about that here, and the defense got a boost with T.J. Watt coming back as his presence is felt with the pass rush that has struggled since he went down early in the season. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. While this is not a typical contrarian play, it could be considered that way with how the Eagles are playing of late as they have hit a lull that all teams go through with a loss against Washington and then barely survived against a bad Colts team last week. If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would be favored by double-digits but they are getting a good price here due to the recent struggles that they can easily reverse especially on their home field where they were embarrassed last time out against the Commanders. The offense has not been very dynamic over the last two games but the Eagles are still ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 4 in scoring offense and will be facing a defense that has been gorged against the run, allowing 153 or more yards in four of their last six games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Green Bay had that huge fourth quarter comeback against Dallas to win at home in overtime but laid an egg last Thursday against Tennessee and have now been outgained in five of their last seven games. The big news this week out of Green Bay is that Aaron Rodgers has been playing with a broken thumb but that was pretty evident to everyone as he has struggled with his accuracy and even his arm strength to a lesser degree. They will be facing the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL and while the weakness of the Eagles is the rushing defense, if Green Bay falls behind and is forced to pass, it will be lights out as Philadelphia is No. 2 against the pass. The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Titans remain the most disrespected team in the league over the last couple years as all they do is win and cover and yet the public refuses to buy in and the lines have reflected that which has led to that great spread record which now sits on an 8-0 run and while these are streaks we like to go against, there is one on the other we are going against and taking the value play. The Titans have had extra rest in this game after beating Green Bay on the road last Thursday for its seventh win in eight games following a 0-2 start. The lone loss came in Kansas City in overtime and the titans have held eight straight teams to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams averaging 260 or more yards passing per game. The Bengals also started the season 0-2 but have won six of their last eight games to get right back into the mix in the AFC North as they trail Baltimore by a game. Cincinnati is dealing with some major injuries as receiver Ja'Marr Chase remains on the shelf with a hip injury and now running back Joe Mixon is out with a concussion so the offense will be in a very tough spot against the tough Tennessee stop unit. Their defense has been solid as they are No. 11 overall but just No. 18 against the run so queue up Derrick Henry for another big game to go along with Ryan Tannehill who was unstoppable against Green Bay. The Bengals have been outgained in four of their six road games. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 59-26 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (260) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Commanders have hit an extra gear as they have won five of their last six games to move a game over .500 and have climbed into the NFC playoff mix, a half-game behind Seattle for the final spot. Washington has relied on a strong and opportunistic defense that has allowed 21 points or less in seven straight games but the improved rushing defense will be put to the test here. Taylor Heinicke has turned into the fan favorite and while he has shown flashes, he is not very good as he has the highest quarterback turnover rate in the league albeit with limited starts. He gives them a spark but puts them in bad spots. Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Atlanta snapped a two-game slide with a win over Chicago at home last week and it too remains in the playoff picture, trailing the Seahawks by a game and a half. The Falcons have struggled on the road as they have dropped three straight games away from home but only one of those was a bad performance which was at Cincinnati. Atlanta possesses the No. 3 ranked rushing offense in the NFL and have put up 138 or more yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games and nine of 11 on the season with that latest exception being against the Bengals where they had to abandon the run. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons.10* (255) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. With the Jets firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture, the last thing they needed was a divided locker room and that is what quarterback Zach Wilson was about to do with his postgame comments after leading the offense to 103 yards on 77 yards passing that included six first downs which led to three points. Head coach Robert Saleh has benched Wilson and will turn to Mike White who has limited experience from last season but can provide a spark to a listless offense that has averaged 14 ppg over their last four games. They will be facing a Bears defense that is fifth worst in pressure rate, second to last in pressures and fourth worst in sacks. On the flip side, the Jets defense is ranked No. 8 in pressure rate, number of pressures and sack percentage. The Bears is unlikely to have Justin Fields behind center as he has a separated non-throwing shoulder along with torn ligaments which is similar to what Baker Mayfield had last season and it is a production limiting injury and Chicago cannot sacrifice his long-term health so it will most likely be Trevor Siemian at quarterback and he limits this offense that is No. 1 in rushing offense with Fields being the main cog of that. There are weapons around him but he does not have the big play capability that Fields possesses and the solid Jets defense will be over the place. Chicago is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (264) New York Jets

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. New England has won three straight games following an improbable win last week against the Jets as it returned a punt for a touchdown in the final seconds to produce a 10-3 victory. The three wins were typical Bill Belichick productions as his defenses were able to shut down young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson twice and San Ehlinger and of their six wins, the best quarterback they have defeated was Jared Goff, although an argument can be made for Justin Fields but he was not particularly well in the passing game, and now they face a savvy veteran ready for a bounce back. The offense has not been doing much at all as over the last four games, the Patriots have not surpassed 300 yards, averaging only 262 ypg and have been outgained in two of those. New England is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher in the second half of the season. We played against Minnesota last week as it got shellacked by the Cowboys after a previous poor effort against the Packers and we are moving in on the Vikings for a similar reason. While we expected Minnesota to come back down to earth following that huge overtime win over the Bills to extend its winning streak to seven games, but we did not expect the awful effort it put forth last Sunday afternoon. They remain home on a short week which is a big bonus and even more so after an absolute stinker in front of their home fans. The Vikings defense has been below average all season and last week was one of the worst efforts as they allowed a season high 40 points and gave up 458 yards but face a nonlethal offense this week with the Patriots coming in at No. 25 overall. Offensively, we are going to see a much better effort and while many will fade the Vikings because of the Kirk Cousins primetime aspect, that is a played narrative. Minnesota is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. 10* (110) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Detroit is coming off an impressive road win over the Giants last week to move to 4-6 to get back into the playoff talk and the Lions have won three straight games for the first time since November of 2017. While impressive for the win column, Detroit was outgained in all three of those games so those victories do come with an asterisk. The Lions have been outgained in seven straight games and eight of ten games on the season and in the two games they won the yardage battle, it was by only 29 and 43 yards. The problem is the defense as they remain dead last overall and in points allowed while sitting No. 31 in rushing defense and No. 28 in passing defense and are in a tough spot here against one of the best offenses and during that winning streak, those were against teams all ranked in the bottom half of the league in offense. Buffalo snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over Cleveland that was played in Detroit and while it was outgained, that was due to the Browns putting up numbers in garbage time. The Bills do have the advantage of playing away from home in the same stadium two games in a row as they are used to the surroundings that most teams would not and while that seems small, it really is not. Buffalo remains No. 2 in total offense and scoring offense and while they have been in a bit of a lull, they can go off here as they need a get right game to get back to their early season dominance with three straight division games on deck. The three losses on the season were by a combined eight points and all against teams currently sitting in playoff spots. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record, winning those games by an average of 18.0 ppg. Here, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (105) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but this is not a true road game for the 49ers with this game being played in Mexico City and they have edges all over the field in this matchup. The Cardinals were able to take out the Rams on the road last week without Kyler Murray but that ended up being an advantage in the fact Los Angeles had little to no time to prepare for Colt McCoy but San Francisco has had a full week to prepare for both quarterbacks. As of Monday morning, Murray is still questionable and looking like he will not go but if he does, he will not be 100 percent. Last week, the Cardinals faced the No. 31 pressure rate defense and this week, they will go against the No. 7 pressure rate unit that is only getting better with health. Overall, Arizona is No. 20 in total offense and No. 19 in both passing and rushing so it has no strength either way and could be in for a long night especially with all of the injuries along the offensive line. The 49ers come in off a win over the Chargers to make it two straight wins sandwiched around their bye week so they are in a good position for another big win and tie the Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. San Francisco is No. 1 in the NFL in total defense and No. 6 in scoring defense and has rebounded nicely following the disaster of an effort against Kansas City but the Chiefs are the Chiefs so no big fault there. The injury list is short which cannot come at a better time and they are also getting healthy on offense as they are near full strength along with a healthy Christian McCaffrey to add another element to the offense that is a solid No. 9 in total offense and facing a very below average defense. One hidden advantage for San Francisco is time of possession as it is No. 7 and that is important here with this game being played at extremely high altitude so keeping the defenses fresh is of utmost importance. 10* (475) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City has won three straight games to improve to 7-2 on the season and has taken over the top seed in the AFC but has a tough assignment Sunday night on the road for the first time in a month following a bye week and a pair of home games. The Chiefs are clearly one of the top three teams in the NFL but they have lost any sort of value here even though the line has come down. This is one team Kansas city always has fits against as over the last nine meetings, it has lost three of those outright and in the six wins, only one has been by more than one possession. The offense is still one of the best in the league at No. 2 overall and No. 1 in scoring but will be facing an improved defense. As for its own defense, Kansas City is No. 16 overall and No. 19 in points allowed with the Chargers always being dangerous. Los Angeles is coming off a Sunday night loss against San Francisco last week on the road and it is back home following two straight road games and its bye week, so it is in the exact opposite spot of the Chiefs playing their first home game in a month. Granted, the home field has not been great that includes blowout losses to Seattle and Jacksonville and close wins against Las Vegas and Denver and based on power rankings, the Chargers should be 4-0 in those games. Injuries have played a big part but they could get Keenan Allen back at receiver to help Justin Herbert who had his worst game of the season last week against the 49ers but that is one of, if not the best overall defenses in the league. Los Angeles has still put together a 5-4 record playing with a lot of adversity and a win here goes a long way. 10* (470) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFC Game of the Month. We played against Dallas last week as it failed to win and cover against Green Bay and as mentioned in the Thursday night game, the Cowboys snapped a streak of being 195-0 coming into that game when holding a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Now they hit the road again against a much better team than the Packers but really how much better? More on that. Dallas is in a great position here coming off that loss and it is laying a smaller than anticipated line based on that loss and what the Vikings have been up to. The one key here for the Cowboys will be their defense as getting pressure on Kirk Cousins will be a big advantage and they should do just that. Dallas leads the NFL in sacks with 33 and can cause havoc here. Minnesota and Buffalo is coming off the game of the year as the Vikings prevailed in overtime and it was fortunate to win with all of the breaks going their way. That has been the case all season for the 8-1 Vikings as their last seven wins have all come by one possession, four by four points or less. According to Team Rankings, Minnesota leads the NFL in Luck Ratings at 2.8 with the Giants second at 2.5 and everyone else way down the list. The Vikings are no doubt a very good team but are not an 8-1 teams, especially considering they have been outgained on the season by over 25 ypg and this luck factor will eventually come back down to a more level plane. 10* (471) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers came through last week with a home win over the Saints to move to 3-6 on the season and have some momentum. They are 2-2 at home with the other win coming against Tampa Bay and the two losses coming against the Patriots and Jets by just three and four points respectively. Overall, Pittsburgh has played the toughest schedule in the league with four of their games coming against the top ten and five of nine coming against the top 16. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been put into a tough situation with limited weapons around him and he has not been horrible with the exception of his eight interceptions and the defense got a boost with T.J. Watt coming back as his presence is felt with the pass rush that has struggled since he went down early in the season. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week after destroying Carolina and has won three of four games to move to 5-4 on the season and now it is in a tough spot facing a defense that looks like its old self. The bye week helped the Bengals get a little healthier but they are still without receiver Ja'Marr Chase who is always a big presence in the offense as he was in the first meeting with 10 catches for 129 yards and his absence is big in this matchup. Joe Mixon went off against Carolina but the Steelers can shut him down as they are ranked No. 6 in rushing defense and while Joe Burrow does have other weapons, the offense is not close to as dynamic with Chase around. The schedule has been easy as the Bengals have played the No. 27 ranked slate and their record does not matchup with that. 10* (474) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is another classic example of a team pulling off a big upset in the spotlight and the public lining up on them the following week but in this case, we have not seen a line move. Washington handed Philadelphia its first loss of the season on Monday night to improve to 5-5 on the season and the Commanders have now won four of their last five games to remain in the hunt in the in the NFC Wild Card picture but this is a team not made up to make that move. This is a game that could come down to the quarterbacks and while most will think Washington has the advantage, that is not the case. Taylor Heinicke has turned into the fan favorite and while he has shown flashes, he is not very good as he has the highest quarterback turnover rate in the league albeit with limited starts. He gives them a spark but puts them in bad spots. We played on Houston last week and it had so many opportunities to pull out the win, or at least the cover, as it has six trips into the redzone and managed to score only one touchdown. The Texans fell to 1-7-1 on the season and has lost four straight games, the last three coming against playoff teams. Houston did outgain two of those opponents while getting outgained against Philadelphia by just 57 total yards so it has not played horrible. The Texans are getting a little more healthy and the return of Brandin Cooks is a bonus for quarterback Davis Mills. He is one of the lower rated quarterbacks in the league but as we mentioned in Game One of the season, his home/road splits are an advantage at home. In 11 road starts, he has a 71.3 passer rating with an 8:13 TD:INT ratio and in 11 home starts, he has a 100.5 rating with a 19:6 ratio. 10* (458) Houston Texans

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Green Bay is coming off a much needed win as it defeated Dallas in overtime on Sunday to snap a five-game losing streak and keep its season somewhat alive and also snapped an incredible streak of the Cowboys being 195-0 coming into that game when holding a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. The Packers are now playing on a short week coming off that big emotional win and playing against the most physical team they have seen all season and the fact they played in the spotlight in a game that everyone saw, the line reflects that and they will be publicly backed in this one. Green Bay was able to run all over Dallas as it had 208 yards on the ground but the Cowboys are No. 29 in rushing defense and that was the fourth time the Packers have gone over 200 yards rushing with three of those against teams ranked No. 19 or worse in rushing defense. That is far from the case here. Everyone will also remember the three touchdown passes from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Watson but take those out and he threw for 104 yards the rest of the game. The offense that struggled prior to that game will be on display once again. Tennessee opened the season 0-2 but has gone 6-1 over its last seven games with the lone blemish being a three-point overtime loss at Kansas City. The Titans have covered seven straight games which is typically a no play on situation but the game situation makes up for that here, especially with this line that is in their favor as if this game was played last week, it would be close to a pickem and any lines that were released prior to last Sunday were in the one-point range and shot up right after. The Titans have decisive advantages in the rushing game on both sides of the ball and that is where that physicality comes into play as they are ranked No. 2 in rushing defense going up against the No. 12 rushing offense and on the other side, the Tennessee offense is ranked No. 8 in rushing and the Packers are No. 26 against the run. Enough said. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (311) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Washington has rallied from a 1-4 start to win three of its last four games to get to 4-5 which is not horrible but in this division, there is a lot of work to be done against the three teams ahead of it in the division. Those recent wins for the Commanders have not come against very good teams but give this defense credit as they have held all but one opponent to 24 points or fewer and that includes games against Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota and unfortunately, those all resulted in losses as the offense was not able to capitalize on its own side. Overall, the schedule is ranked No. 18 in the league but that compared nothing to the Eagles which have played the easiest schedule thus far at No. 32. The Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The schedule ranking aside, you cannot take anything away from the Eagles and their 8-0 start but laying this much in a division game, especially in the second meeting where adjustments can be made by the opposition, it simply way too much. Philadelphia does have the benefit of having extra rest after playing Houston last Thursday in a tougher than expected game but that does not necessarily help a team that is undefeated as the momentum can be hit in a negative way. The Eagles are ranked in the top ten in all major stat categories, with the schedule skewing that some, with the exception of rushing defense where they are No. 21 and this is where Washington should and will take advantage to shorten the game but the passing game still needs to step up as the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. this situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (265) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. We played against Green Bay last week and it lost at home against Detroit as Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the season as he came in with a 14:4 TD:INT ratio but tossed three interceptions. The Packers have now lost five straight games with the last three on the road and four of those have come away from home. The lone loss at Lambeau Field came against the Jets in what was an even game on the stat sheet but a blocked punt return for a touchdown for New York changed the game late in the third quarter. Everyone is sour on this team and rightfully so but this is a great spot after playing three straight road games and if ever there is a spot for a team to reach deep, this is it. These are the situations we love especially against a public team that drives up the line. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams who give up 17 or fewer ppg. Dallas is coming off its bye week after coming off a pair of home wins against Chicago and Detroit and this will be the third game of a four-game stretch against teams from the NFC North. The Cowboys are 6-2 which is impressive considering all of the injuries they have withstood but they have been fortunate as they have outgained only five of eight opponents and on they season, they are outgained opponents by just over eight ypg. Dallas is +6 in turnover margin which has been the biggest benefit as both units have underwhelmed at times. While we expect Rodgers to have a big bounce back game, the running game benefits Green Bay also as the Cowboys are just No. 24 against the run and that is even more disturbing considering a lot of teams were playing from behind and needing to throw. Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (262) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC North Game of the Month. Chicago won a big Monday night game in the spotlight against New England but has since lost two straight games as it was blown out at Dallas two games back and were able to stay within cover range in a loss to Miami last week. The running game has been off the charts the last four games as the Bears are averaging 243 ypg and have surpassed 237 yards in each of those so it is no secret what the Lions will be going after. Rushing numbers like that should translate into wins but the Bears are just 1-3 in those games so there are issues all over. One constant for Chicago is that it has succeeded when winning the turnover battle, which is the case for many teams, as it is +4 in its three wins and -3 in its four losses and has not won the turnover battle in any of its five losses. Chicago is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Detroit is off to a worst start at 2-6 but it is the higher ranked team across most power ranking boards and its issue has been unable to solve the elite teams as the Lions are 0-4 against the top ten so playing .500 football against the other 22 teams is more respectable. They snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over Green Bay last week as they benefitted from Packers turnovers but three of those five losses came by four points or less against teams with a winning record and a loss at Dallas should have been closer as a fumble at the one-yard line completely changed that outcome. Detroit is ranked No. 7 in total offense and No. 12 in scoring offense and face an awful defense that has gotten worse after the trades of their two best defenders and their first game last week without both of them showed how weak it is. Detroit is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (249) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Giants went 6-2 before their bye week, arguably one of the worst 6-2 teams we have seen in a while, and they lost at Seattle by 14 points before their week off. They have been underdogs in six of eight games and in the games they were favored, it was by one and three points so this has been the most they have been favored by due to playing a poor team. They have relied on Saquon Barkley who looks like he did a couple years ago as he is fully healthy and he will be the key target for the Houston defense. The Giants are ranked No. 24 in total offense and No. 17 in total defense and this against a schedule ranked No. 20 in the league. The quarterback play has hindered the offense as Daniel Jones has been okay but not above average and he has been able to use his scrambling ability to keep drives alive. The Giants are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Yes, Houston is a poor team but the linesmakers take that into consideration and the Texans are 4-3-1 ATS which includes a 2-1-1 ATS record on the road. The lone ATS came at the Raiders but that was a game they actually outgained Las Vegas but the game was sealed on a 73-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown so that was a 10-14 point swing. The offense is not the worst but it is near the bottom in most categories and Houston will once again rely on the strength of its running game which can have success against a poor rushing defense. Quarterback Davis Mills has not been great but has not had any blowup games so as long as he can manage with minimal mistakes. Receiver Brandon Cooks has shown frustration and did not play last game for personal reasons, aka he weas benched, but is back this week. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (245) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Miami could be the biggest fraud in the NFL and the analytics could be proving that. Despite six wins, 10 teams are ranked ahead of the Dolphins that have fewer wins. To their credit, the quarterback carousel that occurred in the middle of their nine games because of the injuries definitely held them back and Miami is still the No. 2 ranked passing team in the league thanks to big plays and it is middle of the pack in third down conversions. The major problem for the Dolphins has been the defense as they are No. 23 overall and No. 25 in scoring defense as they have allowed 27 or more points in five of their eight games including four of the last six games and all of this is a problem against an underrated Cleveland offense. The short line is going the public lined up on the home side here but sharp money has dropped this line and while we would love the opener, this is more than good. Miami 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl in two consecutive games. Cleveland is coming off a big win over Cincinnati two weeks ago which snapped a four-game losing streak and the Browns have been part of some bad fortunes this season. They are 3-5 and four of those losses have been by three points or less and two of those have come on the road where they actually outgained the opposition and the only time they were outgained in those four games was against the Chargers by only 22 total yards. Point being, Cleveland has hung around in every game but one which was against New England where turnovers did them in. The Browns are again abusing defenses with their running game as they are No. 3 in the league in rushing offense and have amassed 171 yards or more in six games. The Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 37-9 ATS (80.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (251) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. Carolina is back home following a pair of road losses where it is now 0-4 on the season but a much more respectable 2-3 at home. The Panthers were blown out in Cincinnati this past Sunday, the same way Atlanta was three weeks ago, and the home slate includes an impressive win over Tampa Bay and while their season has not been anything close to consistent, they find themselves only two games out of first place in the NFC South. They are considered the worst of the four teams by a big margin but as we have seen, anything can happen in this league especially what we have seen this season and Carolina is tied with Tampa Bay with a 2-1 record within the conference with that game at hand. The quarterback play has been the problem on offense and P.J. Walker will get another shot after getting benched last week but he was solid in his last home game against the Buccaneers and was decent after that on the road at Atlanta. Carolina had that game won on two separate occasions but the kicking game blew it so there is revenge in play Thursday night. Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 40 points or more last game. It has been a strange season for Atlanta as it has overachieved with its 4-5 record which puts it tied for first place with Tampa Bay in the division but the numbers show it should not be 4-5. The Falcons outgained New Orleans in their first game of the season but they have been outgained in all eight games since then and this is a great historical spot of playing against favorites that have been outgained at a percentage like that. The running game has kept the Falcons afloat but that can only go so far as in the eight games they have outrushed their opponent, they are 3-5. The one game that Atlanta was outrushed happened to be the game against the Panthers so their strength was taken away and now they take that matchup on the road where they are just 1-3. The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (114) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Baltimore has won two straight games following a win at Tampa Bay last Thursday so they have had some extra rest heading into their second straight road game. The Ravens have a good advantage against this Saints defense with Lamar Jackson being a running quarterback as they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and Jackson can go off here while the overall running game has been important throughout the years as Baltimore is 37-8 with Jackson under center and it runs the ball 30 or more times. After getting outgained in its first four games, Baltimore has won the yardage battle in three of its last four games and the road has been no issue as they are 3-1 away from home with one bad fourth quarter against the Giants preventing a 4-0 road record. New Orleans is coming off a 24-0 win over Las Vegas last week which was its best overall effort of the season and coming off that game does not bode well next time out as NFL teams playing at home after coming off a home shutout are 1-4 straight up and ATS over the last five occurrences. The offense has been surprisingly good as New Orleans is ranked No. 3 overall and No. 9 in scoring and it has averaged 29.6 ppg in its last five games, all with Andy Dalton under center which makes it more surprising but the Baltimore defense got an upgrade with the addition of linebacker Roquan Smith. The Saints used to possess one of the best home fields in the league but they are just 3-6 straight up and against the number over their last nine home games. Here, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. this situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (473) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. The Falcons blew the cover last week against Carolina as they allowed a 62-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds remaining yet were bailed out by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and kicking failures from the Panthers. Atlanta sits at 4-4 at leads the NFC South by a game over the Panthers and Buccaneers but they are a fraud as it is the worst .500 or better team in the league as after outgaining the Saints in its season opener, the Falcons have been outgained in their last seven games and by an average of 113 ypg. The offense has been held together by a strong running game and should have some success here but the passing game is non-existent. Defensively, the Falcons are in a tough spot here as they are ranked second to last in DVOA. Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 20 games after a divisional win by three points or less. This is a great spot for the Chargers as they are coming off their bye week which gives quarterback Justin Herbert extra time to rest his ribs and the time off also gave receiver Keenan Allen more time to rest as he will return after leaving the last game with a hamstring injury. He can have a field day against the Falcons defense that is ranked No. 31 in total defense and No. 32 in passing defense and the secondary is banged up with cornerback Casey Hayword out with two other starters, cornerback A.J. Terrell and safely Jaylinn Hawkins highly questionable with a concussion and hamstring injuries respectively. The Falcons have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Herbert will have all the time he needs and we saw what Joe Burrow did to them two weeks ago. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. Here, we play against home teams averaging 7.3 or more ypa and after gaining 8.0 or more ypa last game going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We were on the Lions last week and they blew a few double-digit leads and ended up not covering by a half-point but we are back on them here in what is a stupid line. Detroit was getting 3.5 points against the Dolphins and now it is getting an identical number against a listless Packers team. While the overall schedule for the Lions has not been the toughest, every team they have played is .500 or better on the season and four of their six losses have been by four points or less. The defense has been one of the worst in the league but facing this offense neutralizes that and their own offense should thrive, especially with the running game. Jared Goff has had success against blitz-heavy teams which is what the Packers do and Amon St. Brown is back to normal and coming off a solid game. The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Packers have lost four straight games and while they may have looked decent against the Bills last week, that is more of Buffalo playing vanilla in the second half after building a big lead. The other three losses came against the Commanders, Jets and Giants and while all three are .500 or better, all three are overrated. Green Bay is ranked No. 24 in the league in EPA over the last six weeks as Aaron Rodgers has looked pedestrian all season with his lack of weapons and the fact they did nothing at the trade deadline is telling. Defensively, the Packers are ranked No. 29 against the rush and is at a big disadvantage in this matchup with a healthy D'Andre Swift, who is on the injured list again but is just fine. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in November games. this situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (460) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Raiders were embarrassed last week as they were shutout at New Orleans 24-0, managing only 183 yards of total offense, and teams coming off shutout losses tend to bounce back if they are good and this is still a good team. NFL teams coming off a shutout loss and facing teams off consecutive losses are 15-3 ATS over the last 29 years. Las Vegas was hit hard last week with an injury bug that decimated the roster with 15 players affected but that is gone and at 2-5, it is easily the best two-win or less team in the NFL. The other four losses have come by one possession and the Raiders were outgained by an average of only 19.8 ypg. The Raiders are making their second straight trip out east but that is not a disadvantage here with Jacksonville coming off their annual game in London. The offense is ready for a bounce back. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jacksonville has lost five straight games and while all have been by just one possession, the last four have been against the Broncos, Giants, Colts and Texans, all of which are ranked in the bottom half of the league in the latest power rankings. They face an equally bad team record-wise but not in talent and while the offensive numbers have been above average, the quarterback play is still not where it should be. Trevor Lawrence showed some promise early in the season with two great games against the Chargers and Colts but has regressed since then and his 84.8 passer rating is No. 22 in the NFL. Defensively, the Jaguars are No. 18 overall which is not horrible but there is little pass rush and they have been one of the worst teams on third down over the last month. Jacksonville is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (465) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Bengals have won four of their last five games following a 0-2 start and they have covered five straight games which makes this a great go against spot as they come in as an overreacted road favorite. While the wins have come around, it has kind of been a sloppy way that has accomplished that as Cincinnati has been outgained in four of its seven games by 175 yards combined. Joe Burrow is coming off a spectacular game after a few subpar efforts before that and the issue has been protection with the offensive line struggling against good pressure defenses and while Cleveland is not the best, it is far from the worst as it saw last week against the Falcons. The running game, even with Joe Mixon, has been non-existent as the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in rushing offense. On the other side, Cincinnati has not been good at stopping the run and while it shut down Atlanta, the Falcons had no choice but to pass and Cleveland has the third best rushing offense in the league. Cleveland is off to a 2-5 start but it has played a lot better than that as it has outgained five of its seven opponents but that has not panned out as the Browns have lost four games by three points or less. The offense has struggled the last two games against New England and Baltimore but scored 26 or more points in four of their first five games and overall, the offense is ranked No. 7 in total offense and No. 11 in scoring offense so give Jacoby Brissett credit for doing what he was expected to do and manage games. Cleveland has been inconsistent on defense but it has limited most of the passing attacks it has faced including allowing just 94 yards to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week and while facing Burrow is no easy task, we cannot forget he is without his best weapon as Ja'Marr Chase is out for a few weeks. The Browns were gashed on the ground against the Falcons and Chargers but have allowed 104 yards or fewer on the ground to four opponents. 10* (278) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Things cannot get much worse for the Colts on offense so a move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger is far from a downgrade as Ryan ended his time in Indianapolis with an 84.7 quarterback rating and leads the NFL with nine interception and nine fumbles and was sacked a league high 24 times. Part of that can be blamed on the offensive line but Ryan as a statue and Ehlinger is more mobile and has had a week to work with the first team offense. The Indianapolis offense is No. 30 in scoring but that is due to turnovers and sacks killing drive because it is a very respectable No. 16 in total offense so cutting down the mistakes will drastically help this offense. The running game has been back which is a sur[rise with Jonathan Taylor but he has been hurt and in his return last week, he ran for only 58 yards but it was on only 10 carries and we can expect a bigger workload this week against a below average Commanders rushing defense. The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a divisional loss. Washington is coming off an upset win over Green Bay and has now won two games in a row, the other being against Chicago, following a four-game losing streak. Both of those wins were rather unimpressive with how those two teams are trudging along but the victories help us out here with the line in addition to the public being down on the Colts. The Washington defense held the Packers offense to 232 total yards as Green Bay went 0-for-7 on third and fourth down and while this looks impressive, the Packers offense has been broken all season. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke played ok in his first start as he was 20-33 for only 201 yards with two touchdowns and an interception but the running game made it up for it with a season high 166 yards and they will likely go that route again but the Colts rushing defense, while not the close to the best, can make a difference and force Heinicke to make more plays. This is a tough spot as well with Minnesota and Philadelphia on deck. 10* (272) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC South Game of the Year. We played against Atlanta last week as it got absolutely pounded by Cincinnati as it was over early with the Falcons having no answers for Joe Burrow and his sensational group of receivers but it is not the same this week against P.J. Walker and his receiving corps. The Falcons were gashed through the air for 481 yards as they had no pass rush to slow down Burrow but are now in a different spot against a raw quarterback with a shaky offensive line. Atlanta opened the season 6-0 against the number and because of the results from last week, this line that opened at -6.5 has dropped a couple points and there is now value on the Falcons that are in a great bounce back spot. They are now 3-4 having played the No. 9 ranked schedule in the league, going 1-3 against top 16 teams and 2-1 against teams outside that and are catching the Panthers at the right time. With the Buccaneers struggling, the Falcons are tied for first place in the NFC South heading into Week Eight and this is actually a big game as they are 0-2 in the division. The Panthers pulled off the big upset over Tampa Bay last week which snapped a three-game losing streak with all of those losses coming by double-digits. The Matt Rhule experiment did not last very long and part of the season was that Carolina could not beat the bad teams as going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. The schedule has been in their favor thus far as the Panthers have played five of their first seven games at home and this starts the stretch of three of their next four games taking place on the road. Carolina has been outgained in six of its seven games with the two plus games coming by just 10 and 21 yards as it possesses the worst offense in the NFL, being held to fewer than 300 total yards in five of their games including both games on the road. Carolina has failed to cover its last six games going back to last season while the Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. 10* (258) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Dallas won its first game in the return of quarterback Dak Prescott and while it ended up being an 18-point win, the offense was not sharp until it was able to pull away late and a lot of this had to do with Prescott being rusty after having a few weeks off. Now that he has that first game back under his belt, he should be better off here and will look to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. The defense did the job once again as the Cowboys have allowed fewer than 20 points in six of their seven games with the lone exception being their game against the Eagles and overall, Dallas is No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 6 in total defense. Offensively, it has been a struggle but Cooper Rush did just enough to manage the games and with the offensive line getting better after each week, this unit can start rolling and this matchup will allow that this week. the Cowboys have played a tough schedule and they come in a perfect 3-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16, winning those games by an average of 13.3 ppg. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. We won with the Bears on Monday as they rolled over the Patriots but that was more of a play against New England and the spot it was in and that Chicago victory sets up a great spot to play against them here. The defense was excellent as thy allowed only 260 yards of offense but they face an offense that is nearly back to full strength for a second straight week. this is a classic overreaction that we talk about a lot and in this case, it is even more so because this was the Monday Night game that everyone saw. Chicago was able to move the ball on offense in some capacity against the Patriots but still managed only 390 total yards and the Bears are ranked No. 28 in total offense and No. 24 in scoring offense and while they possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the Cowboys will shut them down as they have dominated opposing rushing attacks the last three weeks. The Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (254) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The old Lions seem to be back but with the market soured on them, we will be backing them here. After opening the season 1-3 with the three losses by a combined 10 points, they have lost their last two games by a combined 53-6 but injuries have played a big role in that with the two top playmakers D'Andre Swift and Amon St. Brown missing most of the last three games but both are listed as probable this week so the offense should get back to what it was early in the season. The last two games have brought the numbers down but Detroit is still ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 9 in scoring offense and have gone up against two top defenses the last two games but that is not the case here. Detroit has averaged 38.6 ppg in its three home games as the fast turf has been on its side. The Lions defense has been the real issue as they are deal last in total defense and scoring defense but they have performed much better over the last two games with no offense to back it up. The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami snapped a three-game slide with a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday night but it was rather unimpressive with Tua Tagovailoa making his first start since being out with a concussion as it managed only 372 total yards but the public still loves the Dolphins. The offense is ranked No. 10 overall with the big game second half at Baltimore skewing those numbers and the Dolphins are ranked just No. 19 in scoring, putting up 21 points or less in six of their seven games. The defense has not been very good and while it is not on the level on the Lions, they are in the bottom third of the league overall, in passing defense and in scoring defense. The secondary has major issues going on and while they flourished against a rookie quarterback, they could be in trouble here. Safety Brandon Jones injured his knee and corner Byron Jones remains out while corners Nik Needham and Trill Williams were already placed on IR. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (262) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Tampa Bay is a broken mess right now and this is the time to buy following a 1-4 run that includes two straight outright losses as a double-digit favorite and we are seeing a double-digit line shift. The 21-3 loss marks the sixth time in seven games the Buccaneers have failed to score more than 21 points, averaging just 20.2 ppg and it came against a team that had lost 12 of their previous 13 games and were down to their third string quarterback. The offense has struggled to maintain any consistency which is incredibly frustrating with all of the talent around Tom Brady but he is partly to blame as well. He has thrown only one interception but has been bad on third down as they are converting at a 35.1 percent clip which is No. 26 in the league after a 44.8 percent conversion rate last season which was No. 5 in the NFL. The defense remains strong as the Buccaneers are No. 7 overall and No. 5 in points allowed but the defense is experiencing a three-game takeaway drought. Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Baltimore snuck out a win over Cleveland as it averted another late collapse and avoided becoming just the third team in the past decade to lose four times in the first seven weeks in games in which they held double-digit leads. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Ravens fell short of the 350-yard mark offensively and the last came against a defense ranked No. 29 in the league. The Ravens are still ranked No. 6 in scoring offense but have scored 23 points or less in their last three games. The defense allowed Jacoby Brissett and the Browns to stay within reach until the very end despite a ferocious Ravens pass rush and the defense is allowing 23.5 ppg which is No. 21 while allowing 366.4 ypg which is No. 23. They have a passing defense that has struggled so Brady can have that breakout game that everyone has been waiting for. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Game of the Month. Primetime football has been on an awful roll and it continued Monday night with a stinker between the Bears and Patriots but value can be found and we have it here. Chicago came into the season with no expectations and it has played surprisingly well and despite a 2-4 record, its last three losses have been by one possession and it can thank the defense which has kept it competitive. The Bears are No. 15 in total defense and No. 13 in scoring defense and while the rushing defense needs to shore things up, they have held their own and the passing defense has made up for it. That is mostly due to being able to get to the quarterback as the Bears are fifth in pressure rate and have not needed to blitz a ton to do so and they can certainly have success against a young quarterback no matter which one goes Monday. The Patriots have won two in a row following a 1-3 start but they defeated an overrated Lions team that has scored six points in their last two games as injuries have killed them and then blew out the Browns but benefitted from four turnovers that led to 24 points. The New England quarterback situation is still up in the air as Bailey Zappe has looked very good in his limited action and Mac Jones is a gametime decision but the difference between the two is small enough to not affect this line or change the dynamic of the Patriots offense. Defensively, this is where Patriots have thrived against young quarterbacks under Bill Belichick but they have been average overall this season and the Bears have enough again to keep this one close. Here, we play against home teams averaging 7.3 or more passing yards per attempt and after gaining 8 or more passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 passing yards per attempt. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Chiefs are coming off a loss against Buffalo at home and their brutal schedule continues this week. Kansas City has played the toughest slate in the NFL and have gone 2-1 against teams ranked in the top ten, where its opponent sits this week, with the two wins coming against the Buccaneers and Chargers. Despite the two losses, Kansas City is ranked No. 2 overall as it should be and this is a good bounce back spot in a scenario where it has excelled in. While Patrick Mahomes is just 8-6 ATS following a loss, Kansas City has won 11 of those 14 games as the majority of the follow up games have come with much bigger lines. Defensively, the Chiefs are in a good spot here as well as they possess the No. 6 ranked pass rush rate and will be going up against a beat up offensive line which will torment Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco has been all over the place with a 3-3 record and those three losses have come against the Bears, Broncos and Falcons. The 49ers have played the No. 32 ranked schedule in the NFL and the only top ten win came against the Rams which are not right either. San Francisco has rolled in its first two home games with the other coming against the overrated Seahawks and it is at a disadvantage on both sides. The acquisition of Christian McCaffrey is a huge one for sure but will surely be limited here so his impact should be minimal. The 49ers defense is banged up and while some pieces will be back but not at 100 percent, namely Nick Bosa and his balky groin, while Arik Armstead is out and Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga appear unlikely to play. Something is not right with this team and this is not the matchup to try and get things going the correct way. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. this situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs