Sports Picks & Predictions

The Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak and are 12-1 since the return of quarterback Tom Brady. Is this the product of a very elite New England team or the product of a very soft schedule? While it consists of both, it is more of the latter. Great teams win and the Patriots are doing just that but there is more too it since there has been little resistance from opposing offense. New England is No.1 in the NFL in points allowed and since Brady returned, here is the list of quarterbacks he has faced. Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Bryce Petty, Trevor Simien, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Landry Jones, Andy Dalton and Cody Kessler. The quarterback with the highest rating of the group was Russell Wilson and that resulted in a loss. There is a reason the defense has looked good because the numbers are skewed. Now they get to face Ben Roethlisberger who missed the first meeting back in Week Seven and the Steelers still won the yardage battle in that game. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh has won nine straight games and has been outgained only once over that stretch which was the regular season finale when the big three on offense rested. While the Steelers won by just two points last week, they dominated Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs by 162 total yards. The defense is unspectacular but still very solid and can certainly slow down the New England offense. While New England is more accustomed to this spot, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Championships games while the Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (313) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Packers are the popular public play to make it to the Super Bowl as after Aaron Rodgers said they were going to run the table, they have done just that. They have won their last eight games, putting up 30 or more points in their last six, while covering seven of those games and taking three of those outright. Rodgers is playing at a high level right now as he has had a quarterback rating surpassing 100 in seven of his last nine games. Turn on any sports talk show and he is all you hear about in this game. Well, Matt Ryan may have something to say about this. He led the NFL in quarterback rating and he has surpassed a 100 rating in eight of his last 10 games. Many will point to the fact that Green Bay is once again getting more than a field goal for a second straight week but this week, the challenge will be more difficult. Last week, Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead but could not pull away as the defense allowed the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to get right back in the game and nearly had to go to overtime. The Packers secondary is a mess and they will be challenge even more here against the top ranked offense in the NFL. Last week, we played against Atlanta thinking the Seahawks defense could slow the Falcons down and that was not the case as Ryan tore them apart. Playing the final game ever in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons will have an even greater home field advantage which will help the defense which we saw last week. They will not shut Green Bay down but have the potential to slow them down enough to be able to allow their own offense to pull away. 10* (312) Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs backed into a first round bye thanks to the Raiders losing Derek Carr for the season and them losing their final game of the regular season so it is very fortunately than Kansas City is sitting in this position. Despite a 12-4 record, the Chiefs were outgained on average by 23.6 ypg which is the fifth worst differential in the NFL. They were only better than the 49ers, Browns, Rams and Dolphins and we saw what happened to the latter last week in Pittsburgh. Hitting the road and winning will be a challenge for the Steelers but they are the better team and the only thing that can hurt them here is turnovers. Pittsburgh has won eight straight games and while the opposition has not been great, winning is winning and they have done it in a variety of ways. Running the ball has been successful as LeVeon Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards over his last seven games while Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown is the explosive part of the passing game. On the other side, Since Week Nine, the Steelers defense is averaging 3.5 sacks per game with consistent pressure from traditional pass rushers or timely blitzes. The Steelers have a fully stocked roster for the first time in the last three playoff appearances which is huge for this team that has so much talent all over the place. Going back, the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. 10* (305) Pittsburgh Steelers

It is pretty rare to see teams favored by this many points in the playoffs and even during the Patriots 16-0 season back in 2007, they were not favored by this much. In the past 40 years, only three other teams have been favored by 16 points or more in a playoff game and while this line has snuck below that as of Wednesday, the point has been made. New England is good enough to win any game by more than this amount but this is not the ideal team to do it against. The Patriots have rolled to seven straight wins and finished 14-2 during the regular season but they have played no one since early in the season. Since their Week Nine bye week, they have faced two playoff teams, one resulting in a loss against Seattle and the other resulting in a win over Miami without Ryan Tannehill. Actually both wins over playoff teams since Week Seven back come against backup quarterbacks, the other being Landry Jones of the Steelers. The Texans had little issue with Oakland last week and despite winning against a backup, the defense is good enough to hold its own here. The running game will be big as well to keep the ball away from the Patriots offense. Lamar Miller sat the final two games of the regular season, but he ran the ball a season-high 31 times against the Raiders and looks healthy. Houston lost the first meeting 27-0 and that was without Tom Brady in the lineup but the Texans still won the yardage battle but gave the ball away three times, something they cannot afford to do this week. 10* (303) Houston Texans

The favorites dominated last week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs as they went a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS with all four games being decided by double-digits which made for some bad football viewing. We should see this come back into line this week and we will start out on Saturday by grabbing the first underdog. Seattle rolled over Detroit last weekend and has now outgained six straight opponents and when comparing these two teams, Seattle is arguably the better team even though the line indicated the Falcons are superior. The Seahawks offense has been all over the place this season but the good news is that they got the running game going last week and now face an even worse defense as the Falcons are ranked No. 27 in total defensive efficiency. On the flip side, Atlanta has the most potent offense in the NFL but squares off against one of the strongest defenses as the Seahawks are ranked No 4 in defensive efficiency and are ranked No. 6 in fewest yards allowed per drive at 28.58. The Seahawks have been fantastic against the run all season long, limiting opponents to a league-low 3.37 ypc. In the first meeting, the Seahawks were without strong safety Kam Chancellor and defensive lineman Frank Clark. The Seahawks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (301) Seattle Seahawks

It has been a great season for the Dolphins which finished 10-6 but they took a hit with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Despite that, the overall record is skewed as Miami closed the season by getting outgained in its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The only two games the Dolphins won the yardage battle were against Los Angeles and Arizona by just 13 and 14 yards respectively. Matt Moore is a capable backup for sure but he is in a tough spot making a playoff start in what looks to be not ideal weather. The Steelers rested their main starters in Week 17 against the Browns and that was a good move. While they were outgained, that meant nothing. Prior to that, Pittsburgh had outgained nine straight opponents and the last team to outgain the Steelers happened to be the Dolphins. That was the game Ben Roethlisberger was injured and not nearly 100 percent even though he finished it out. Revenge does come into play but that is not a huge motivator come playoff time considering what is at stake. More importantly, this is a big game for Pittsburgh which surprisingly has not won a home playoff game since 2011 so motivation will be huge here based on that alone. The Steelers went 3-0 ATS this season as favorites of eight or more points while the Dolphins defeated only one playoff team this season, the aforementioned Steelers game. Additionally, the Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle has not looked great lately as it is just 3-3 in its last six games but there was not much of a motivation level toward the end of the season. The Seahawks lost their only home game of the season in Week 16 against Arizona but they already had the division locked up and were no longer in contention for a first round bye so it is tough to get up for a game like that. The only time Seattle was outgained however was at Tampa Bay and it has won the yardage battle in its last five games. Overall, Seattle had the third highest yardage differential in the NFL at +38.5 ypg and third amongst playoff teams. The Seahawks finished third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense and will be a big factor here against a Detroit offense that was efficient but not very potent. The Lions definitely has a surprisingly good season with low expectations coming in but it was a season that could have easily gone south. Detroit has been involved in some close games this season as 13 of 16 games have finished within one possession win or lose. That is going to sway some bettors to back the Lions but that is not a wise move here. Detroit was outgained on average by 16 ypg which was ninth worst in the league and second worst amongst playoff teams. The weather does not look great for Saturday night and the Lions have played outdoors exactly twice since Oct. 2, and their coldest kickoff temp was 55 degrees in the Week 15 loss to the Giants. The Seattle playoff experience will play huge dividends here as well. 10* (104) Seattle Seahawks

People are unfairly putting a fork in the Raiders because of the loss of quarterback Derek Carr for the season and while that loss is huge, they are far from done especially in this matchup. Connor Cook got thrown into the fire last Sunday after backup Matt McGloin got hurt and Cook did an admiral job as he competed 14 of 20 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown along with a pick. This came with practice with the first team and going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Granted, Houston is in that category as well but a week of practice could do wonders for the rookie. Taking a look at the other side, Houston returns with quarterback Brock Osweiler who finished with the second worst passer rating in the NFL. The Texans offense finished ahead of only the Rams, Browns and Jets in points scored at 17.4 ppg and even that is skewed because of defensive and special team points. Houston generated more than two offensive touchdowns a total of zero times in 16 games and its 1.4 offensive touchdown per game average is dead last in the league. The Oakland defense is nothing special but Houston did not exactly play many top level defenses along the way. In a game that could go either way, we will grab the underdog that looks to be overpriced on top of it. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders

Week 17 in the NFL is all about information as teams and players have little or a lot to play for. Washington needs to win to make the playoffs and just hope that Green Bay and Detroit do not tie tonight. The Redskins have all of the motivation here as the Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. They are in the playoffs already and cannot move out of the No. 5 seed that they are currently in. Head coach Bob McAdoo said that he is playing the starters today and repeatedly stated that but that does not mean the starters are going to finish the game. After watching Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota go down last week, he will not be taking a chance with Eli Manning or any other big time starters. Washington had lost three of four games prior to last week where it thumped Chicago so it comes in with some momentum and this is guaranteed to be the final home game of the season should the Redskins get into the postseason. Even at full strength, the Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (308) Washington Redskins

We gave out a small play against the Chiefs this past Sunday and we are going all in fading Kansas City once again this week. They fell to Tennessee on a last second field goal and are now a game behind the Raiders in the AFC West while sitting in the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoffs, only one game ahead of Miami. Kansas City is easily the worse winning team in the league as we mentioned in the analysis from last week that they are getting outgained on average and by a significant amount. After getting outgained by Tennessee this past Sunday, the Chiefs are getting outgained by an average of 43.7 ypg. That is fourth worst in the league which is ahead of only the Rams, Browns and 49ers which are a combined 5-37. One of those games where they were outgained was their fortunate win in Denver and they were outgained there by 191 total yards but had a kickoff return for a touchdown while benefitting from 15 Denver turnovers. This is the last chance for Denver as it has to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. Following its second straight loss at home against the Patriots, there was a locker room fight between the offense and defense and while it is being played down, that is the type of fire you want to hear about. The Broncos are better than their 8-6 record shows as they are No. 11 in yardage differential and they actually have the same point differential as the division leading Raiders. While I do not think Kansas City is any better than Denver, this line is telling us the Chiefs are in fact the better team on a neutral field so getting a line this spread higher than the key number of three is huge in a game that has much on the line. Nine of the last 12 meetings have been decided by just one possession but in reality, we are more likely to see a Denver blowout rather than a Kansas City blowout. 10* (129) Denver Broncos

Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are still alive for playoff spots but it is the Buccaneers that have the much better odds at this point. If Tampa Bay wins, it will move to 9-6 but still will need Green Bay, Detroit and Washington to lose and we do not see that happening this week. Tampa had its five-game winning streak snapped last week in Dallas as it blew a fourth quarter lead but still got the cover which was its sixth straight spread win. It is more straight forward for the Saints as they have to win out and hope to get a lot of help along the way. The good news is that they know if they lose either of their last two games, they have no shot at the postseason so there is no reason to even worry about playoff scenarios. They are coming off a huge win in Arizona last Sunday to stay alive and they will be out to avenge a loss in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. So should Green Bay or Washington win earlier in the day which will know the Saints out, there is still plenty to play for and it was noted that there will be no scoreboard watching prior to their own game. 10* (108) New Orleans Saints

This is a must win game for the Redskins who laid an egg this past Monday night against Carolina which put a big hit into their playoff hopes. They have dropped three of their last four games after a 6-3-1 start but all is not lost. Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win here and next week against Giants while having Tampa Bay lose once or Atlanta lose twice and Green Bay lose once or Detroit lose twice. They could actually still sneak in with a loss here but the chances are extremely slim. There has been no quit with Chicago as it has played extremely hard over the last five weeks but this is not a good spot. The Bears are coming off a pair of brutal divisional losses against the Lions and Packers by three points each and that sets them up for a big letdown here especially with another division rival on deck next week. Chicago has covered five straight games so we are catching value here because of that as well as the Redskins mini slump. Washington has covered eight of their last 10 road games and will keep that going on Saturday. 10* (103) Washington Redskins

The Bills put forth a solid effort last week against the lowly Browns following two straight losses and saving the job of Rex Ryan for at least one more week. Buffalo is still alive in the AFC playoff picture but at 7-7, the chances of making the postseason for the first time in over two decades is slim. Still, the Bills know they need to win and they will no doubt go all out against their division rivals. The Dolphins rolled over the Jets last Saturday which was their second straight win following an ugly loss in Baltimore prior to that. Miami is 8-1 over its last nine games which is one of the best runs in the NFL but it is skewed considerably. The Dolphins have been outgained in five of their last seven games and are still getting outgained on average this season by 41.9 ypg. That is ahead of only Cleveland, San Francisco and Los Angeles which is a pretty bad club to be involved with. Miami is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 December games which is pretty logical while the Bills re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Buffalo Bills

The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday and while the Eagles have been eliminated from playoff contention, they will go all out and not have New York clinch on their watch. Philadelphia has dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight after a 4-2 start but some of those losses have been very close as six of its overall losses have been by just one possession. Following a win in Chicago in its first road game, Philadelphia has dropped seven straight on the highway but it is a very respectable 4-2 at home and in one of those losses, it outgained the Redskins. The Giants are on a complete opposite run as they have won two straight and eight of their last nine games but similar to the Eagles, the games have been extremely close. Six of the last eight wins have been by a possession and New York has not been good on the road. It won its season opener in Dallas but the other two wins have come against 0-14 Cleveland and 4-10 Los Angeles. Even worse, the Giants have been outgained in all six of their road games and yes that includes the Browns and Rams. New York won the first meeting at home against Philadelphia by five points but was outgained by 141 yards in the process and in 14 games overall, the Giants have been outgained q14 times and on average they are getting outgained by 27 ypg. Because of records, the Giants were forced to be the favorite here but can definitely be considered a false favorite in this spot. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles

The Redskins opened as a -4.5-point favorite and the line has steadily risen to a touchdown in most places and that is a big jump for two teams that are more even than the records may show. Washington is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2 and after a four-game winning streak earlier in the season, the Redskins are just 3-3-1 over their last seven games. They have played a tough schedule and have been favored by more than 3.5 points only once this season and that was against Cleveland. Of their seven wins, only two have come by more than seven points. Obviously, it has been a disappointing season for the Panthers who will be going from playing in the Super Bowl to missing the playoffs. Only nine times has the Super Bowl runner-up finished below .500, something the Panthers can avoid only by winning their final three games. Carolina has only put up two bad games this season and those were against 9-4-1 Seattle and 9-5 Atlanta as it has outgained six of its other 11 opponents. Five of eight losses have come by three points or less while in the other defeat against Minnesota, the Panthers outgained the Vikings by 95 total yards. The pressure is squarely on Washington here and that is often a bad ingredient in games of such magnitude. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (331) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. The NFL flex schedule moved this game to the primetime slot that before the season would never have come close to playing on Sunday night. The Cowboys are now 11-2 on the season following their second loss to the Giants by a combined four points but are overvalued here once again. Dallas has outgained only one opponent in its last five games and while it is 4-1 in those games, there could have been more losses but was fortunate. While the Cowboys are the surprise of the league, Tampa Bay is not far behind. The Buccaneers are 8-5 and tied with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South. They have won five straight games as the defense has risen to the occasion by allowing just 12.8 ppg during the winning streak. This is certainly a big test but Tampa Bay passed the test already with wins over Atlanta, Kansas City and Seattle so it will not be intimidated here. The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the road and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 95-47 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots picked up a solid win last Monday night to make it four straight wins and are now just one win away from clinching another AFC East title. They can also clinch with a Miami loss on Saturday so this game means a lot more for the Broncos. New England is the only remaining undefeated team on the road and the public is riding that as the Patriots are again a huge consensus this week as a road chalk. Denver lost in Tennessee last week despite outgaining the Titans by 95 yards and the Broncos have actually outgained their opponents in three of their last four losses so they have been better than their 8-5 record shows. A great angle is in play here with the better defense at home and getting points on top of it. New England is clearly playing at a high level but it has struggled here with three straight losses in Denver, the last two coming when it was favored. The Patriots are part of a negative situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 150 and 185 passing ypg, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Year. This game got bumped from the Sunday night time slot and moved to 1:00 ET which helps Cincinnati because of its struggles in the limelight. After going winless in four straight games, the Bengals have won two straight and while making the playoffs will take a minor miracle, they are still in the hunt. The good news is that they face the Steelers and Ravens at home so hope is still there. Pittsburgh roughed up the Bills last week, namely Le'Veon Bell who torched Buffalo for 236 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He will find the going a little tougher this week but because of four straight victories, the Steelers are now favored by more on the road than they were last week in Buffalo. This is the first time this season that Cincinnati is getting points at home and the feeling it is unjustified in a divisional game of this magnitude. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. This situation is 150-95 ATS (61.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record and will step up to the occasion on Sunday once again. 10* (330) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After destroying the Jets on Monday night, the Colts put up a stinker last week at home against Houston and they now sit a game out of first place in the AFC South. We played against them last week because the line was way off but we are backing them this week based on what looks like not only another bad line, but a must win spot. Indianapolis travels to Oakland next week which makes this one pretty big. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but their bye week came and since then, they have gone just 2-6 as the offense has looked pretty putrid. While they scored 25 points in Jacksonville last week, they had to settle for four field goals which is not a good sign at all. The Minnesota defense has done its job for the most part but the offense has not been able to take advantage. The defense will be without safety Harrison Smith and while that was not a factor last week against Blake Bortles, it will be a factor this week against Andrew Luck. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Indianapolis Colts

Miami picked up a big win last week against Arizona but at the same time, suffered a big blow with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Luckily, he is not out for the rest of the season but his loss will be felt as Matt Moore takes over in his absence. Despite an 8-5 record, the Dolphins are getting outgained by over 40 ypg and that is the fifth worst differential in the league. You have to give the Jets credit last week for bouncing back from that awful effort against the Colts and also coming back from a 14-0 deficit last week against the 49ers to win in overtime. The last time they were featured at home in a national TV game was that game against Indianapolis and you can guarantee their effort will be better as to not get embarrassed again. overall, New York has struggled at home but it has been competitive for the most part and now are getting the second most points at home on the season. The Jets fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. 10* (304) New York Jets

The Ravens have won four out of their last five game to improve to 7-5 overall but they sit a half-game behind Pittsburgh, which has won four straight games, in the AFC North. That will set up a big showdown Christmas Day when they meet but Baltimore needs to worry about the present first. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense and scoring defense and that is a recipe for success late in the season when making a playoff charge. Another key factor is the offensive line. The Ravens are expected to go with the same starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight game which comes after Baltimore had seven different lineups the previous seven games. New England is the frontrunner in the AFC East as it has a 2.5-game lead on Miami and is on pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This is no easy out however as the Patriots are pretty banged up on offense. In addition to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett is banged up and Danny Amendola is out. Baltimore has beaten Tom Brady twice in New England in the postseason and could be 4-0 against him if Lee Evans had caught that pass in the end zone in 2011 and the Ravens had held on to a 14-point lead in 2014. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Baltimore Ravens

The Rams opened the season 3-1 and were looking like a possible playoff contender but the quarterback position has hurt them ever since. Jared Goff has taken over for Case Keenum and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. He is back home for his second start in Los Angeles and his first one here against Miami was not a bad one as he managed the game well as the defense let it slip away. Still, this is a very strong defense that is No. 10 overall and will give the Falcons some issues in their passing game. Atlanta lost a tough one last week as it allowed a defensive touchdown as well as a special teams score not mention a game losing two-point conversion return. Atlanta is now tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the AFC South so this is certainly a big game for the Falcons. They have more incentive but the linesmakers have taken that into consideration as they are laying the most points they have put down on the highway all season. Plain and simple, it is too many against a very strong defense. With the loss last week, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a loss by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (130) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for out NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. This is a great setup for the Dolphins as they look to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Riding a six-game winning streak going into Week 13, Miami went to Baltimore last Sunday and got hammered 38-6 while getting outgained by 219 total yards. That dropped the Dolphins to 7-5 and took them out of a Wild Card spot but a win here coupled with a Baltimore loss in New England on Monday gets them right back in. Miami ends the season with three divisional games which makes this a big one. Arizona heads to the east coast after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Washington last week. It was not very pretty for the Cardinals which are not playing well at all with wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers being the only ones of value. The three other wins have come against two teams a combined 4-20. They are still in the playoff race as well but they have struggled on the road with the lone win coming in San Francisco and they outgained the 49ers by just two total yards. The results last week are giving us value this week as the typical adjustments have to made after one week and not looking at the overall picture. 10* (116) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The winless Browns are running out of chances to avoid a 0-16 season and this could be the final chance to snag a victory. The remaining three games for Cleveland are at Buffalo, at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh so this is the easiest of its schedule to end the season. Additionally, this is a very good spot for the Browns as they are coming off their bye week after 12 straight games and they will be getting RGIII back at quarterback which has been the shakiest area for them on offense after he went out. Cincinnati kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Eagles last week which was its first win since Week Seven when it defeated the Browns. Andy Dalton finally put a complete game together but this team cannot be trusted on the road where the Bengals are 1-5 with the only win coming against the Jets by a single point. Here, we play on Underdogs or pickems that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winless on the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. Look for the Browns to collect their first victory of the season. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

We won with the Colts on Monday night and while it was a play on Indianapolis, it was just as much of a play against the Jets which failed to show up right from the start. After that 41-10 win, the Colts moved into a tie with Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South making this a big game for both sides. This line is not telling us that this is a divisional game between teams with the same record as Indianapolis is laying way too big of a number here. Houston has dropped three straight games following its eight-point loss in Green Bay last week. All three losses came by just one possession however so things have been close and everything points to an even closer one here. The offense has been bad over this stretch as the Texans have managed just 46 points over the three games but they will be taking on a very poor defense this week that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 28 in passing. That is welcome news for Brock Osweiler who has struggled in his first season with the Texans. Houston has covered six straight road division games while the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (109) Houston Texans

The Bills wasted a golden opportunity last week when they blew a 24-9 lead against the Raiders and lost to fall back to 6-6 on the season. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC and are two games out of the final Wild Card spot so they need to basically win out and hope for a lot help. The schedule is very manageable however as this is the start of three straight home games and they close the season in New York against the Jets. Buffalo has been outgained only four times since starting the season 0-2 and of those four losses, three could have resulted in wins. The Steelers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak but they are tough team to trust on the road. They are 3-3 but one of those wins came at winless Cleveland while another came at Indianapolis which was without Andrew Luck. They finish the season with three straight divisional games and the AFC West is still within grasp as they are tied with Baltimore for first place. This is definitely a big game for Pittsburgh as well but it should not be favored on the road here as these teams are more equal than their names suggest. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more straight wins while Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after two or more losses against the spread. 10* (114) Buffalo Bills

Kansas City is finding ways to win but with them being dominated so much lately, it will catch up. The Chiefs are 7-1 over their last eight games but they have been outgained in six of those and most have not even been close. They have been outyarded in each of the last five games and by an average of 118.4 ypg. They were fortunate to come away with wins in each of the last two games with last week being the real fortunate one as they scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams while also returning a conversion attempt for two points. Oakland fell behind Buffalo 24-9 before scoring the final 29 points to pull out the two-touchdown win. That was the sixth straight win for the Raiders and in those, they were outgained only once. In their last 10 games, they have lost only once and that was against Kansas City at home and while road revenge is not a big factor, there will be some added motivation. Additionally, a win here could go a long way in locking up the AFC West as they would have a two-game lead with three to play. It is hard to ignore the fact Oakland is 5-0 on the road and playing with some of the best confidence in the league. While Kansas City is 4-1 at home, it has covered just once and that was against the lowly Jets. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders

The Colts hit the road following their Thanksgiving loss at home against Pittsburgh where they were missing Andrew Luck but he is now back after passing concussion protocol. Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road but has played better than that record shows. Two losses came by three points, one in overtime, while the third was in Denver by 14 points but it was down by just three points under the two-minute warning before allowing a defensive touchdown, the second of the game. With Houston losing yesterday, the Colts can get into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a victory. The Jets have lost three straight games and all of those were by five points or less including a tough loss to the Patriots last week. The playoffs are no longer a possibility and New York will be challenged to get up for this game after losing to their rivals last week knowing there is not much to play for at this point. The secondary has struggled all season and the pass rush has had trouble on the edges so Luck should be able to consistently move the ball down field. The Colts defense has been an issue all season but New York is ranked No. 28 in points scored. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (377) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers have been the hard luck team of the NFL this season. They are 5-6 as they have been depleted by injuries but still, all six of those losses have come within just one possession. San Diego is outgaining opponents by over 10 ypg which is not a huge gap and they are one of only four teams in the NFL with a losing record but possess a positive point differential. The playoff scenario may look bleak but the Chargers are not out of it. Tampa is coming off an upset win over Seattle which was its third straight win, all of which it was in the underdog role. The Buccaneers are now 6-5 and just a game off the lead in the NFC South. They have won three straight road games as well but on the season, they are getting outgained on average and unlike San Diego, they are in the negative in scoring differential. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 70-35 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (370) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. New Orleans snapped a two-game skid with a blowout win over Los Angeles last Sunday. While we were on the wrong side of that call, it sets up a great opportunity to go against the Saints this week. They are now 5-6 on the season and trail the Falcons by two games in the NFC South. They are again favored by a bigger than expected number. Detroit took care of Minnesota on Thanksgiving by a field goal for its third straight victory and sixth win over its last seven games. The Lions have the lead in the NFL North by a game and a half over Minnesota and two games over Green Bay so a win here would be huge for momentum with a home game against Chicago on deck. Detroit win here last December as a 2.5-point underdog and it came into that game 4-9 so the fact it is getting more points now is a bit of an overreaction for the Saints. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when the total is 49.5 or higher and it falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off two consecutive home wins. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (359) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons burned us last week as they rolled past Arizona and are in a great spot this week to make it two straight wins. Atlanta improved to 3-2 at home with the lone losses coming against Tampa Bay in the season opener and San Diego in overtime. The Falcons will not be looking past Kansas City for sure with games against Los Angeles and San Francisco up next. Kansas City was fortunate to win last week in Denver as a field goal that hit the upright and went in with two second left was the difference. The Chiefs were outgained by 191 yards and they have been outgained in four straight games. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-64 ATS (63 percent) since 1983. 10* (354) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville has dropped six straight games but unlike the past, most of the games have at least been competitive. The Jaguars have lost the last four by just one possession and three of those came on the road. They have been outgained only twice during this losing streak one of those was by just three yards which came last week in Buffalo. Three of their four home losses have been by a combined nine points. Denver lost a brutal game at home against Kansas City in overtime on a last second field goal that almost did not even go in. Now the Broncos hit the road in a very tough spot. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Jacksonville falls into another situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. 10* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Dallas spread run finally came to an end as it failed to cover against Washington on Thanksgiving. Still, the Cowboys have won ten straight games outright but they are in a tough spot this week playing a desperate team with a fantastic defense in need of a win. Dallas has put up at least 24 points during the winning streak but now it faces the best defense it has seen all season in a hostile environment. The Vikings lost for the fifth time in six games on Thursday as the offense could do little once again. Stefon Diggs was a late scratch but he will be back this week while Kyle Rudolph will be good to go after leaving the Detroit game with a shoulder injury. The public is and will be all over the Cowboys again this week and that is a spot we will fade Thursday night. The Vikings have two contrarian situations in their favor. First, we play against road favorites allowing 90 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in 2 straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in 2 straight games. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (302) Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay is mired in a four-game losing streak and it sits two and a half games behind Detroit in the NFC North. All games are big but this is a really big one for the Packers as a fifth straight loss would essentially put them in a spot they could not recover from. The schedule has been part of the problem as while they had a four-game homestand in parts of September and October, they are now playing their fourth road game in a five-game stretch and third in a row. Philadelphia is 5-5 following a loss in Seattle last Sunday making this a big game for the Eagles as well. The edge would seem to go to Philadelphia considering that the home team is 9-1 in its games this season but while this number may not seem big, it is matched for the largest line the Eagles have put down this season, tying it with the -4 against the Browns Week One. Being over the key number of 3 is huge in this case. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, we play against home favorites off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 93-48 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 106-60 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (275) Green Bay Packers

The Rams lost a tough one last week as they blew a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter in falling to the Dolphins 14-10. The offense was not able to generate much but quarterback Jared Goff was fairly efficient as he went 17-31 for 134 yards and most importantly, no picks. He gets a much better matchup this week and after one game under his belt, he should be able to open it up more. The Saints lost their second straight game following a pair of wins to fall to 4-6 and remain two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. This is the identical record as that of the Rams yet New Orleans is laying a touchdown and even more in some places. The key here is the defenses as the Saints are ranked No. 22 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense while the Rams are No. 6 and No. 5 respectively. The Rams have two situations on their side. First, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 49-16 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against home teams after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams

The Bengals have not won since before their trip to London as they are 0-2-1 but a couple breaks their way and they could be on a four-game winning streak right now. The two losses came by a combined five points against the Giants and Bills and now they head to Baltimore in a must win game without their top playmaker A.J. Green. There is still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and despite being three games under .500, it is just -27 in point differential and just a game and a half behind Pittsburgh. Baltimore is coming off a loss at Dallas to fall to 5-5 and it is now 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Of the five wins, only one has been a dominating one and that was against Cleveland two games back. The Ravens have been outgained in five of their last six games so this is a team not to trust laying points of anything more than a field goal. Cincinnati falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams at +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while the Ravens are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. 10* (257) Cincinnati Bengals

Surprising to some, San Diego is favored on the road at Houston but it really is not that big of a surprise. The Chargers are just 4-6 on the season but they have lost some tough games all season, five of which have come by seven points or less. They have outgained six of their last seven opponents and despite a 1-4 road record, all of those losses could have been wins including two that went to overtime. Houston is coming off a devastating loss against the Raiders in Mexico City as it has a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter but then allowed two touchdowns. That is a tough loss to recover from as the offense continues to bog the whole team down. The Texans are No. 30 in total offense and No. 28 in scoring offense. Conversely, the Chargers are No. 8 and No. 2 respectively in those categories and are very balanced. The Texans possess a strong defense but after what happened in the fourth quarter Monday night, that defense is vulnerable. Here, we play on road favorites that are completing 60 or more of their passes, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) San Diego Chargers

We played against Arizona last Sunday in Minnesota as that was a bad matchup for the Cardinals. They actually held their own however as they outgained Minnesota by 73 total yards but were killed by a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now they go from facing the No. 3 ranked defense to facing the No. 28 ranked defense so the offense should be fine after putting less than 300 yards last week. Atlanta has lost three of its last five games and following its bye week, this is a big game for the Falcons but the matchup is not in their favor at all. Despite this, they are laying a bigger than expected number and this time of year, the defenses are very important. While Matt Ryan and the offense has been great all year, Atlanta now has to tackle the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. While it has suffered some close losses, Atlanta has had its share of close wins that could have gone the other way. The Falcons fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Arizona Cardinals

Dallas continues its dominating run as it has now won and covered nine straight games. The Cowboys were fortunate with the cover last week on a late field goal and because of the run, linesmakers have to keep making adjustments and now they are favored by the most they have been all season. Washington is coming off a pair of wins following its London trip and a bye week. This is the last opportunity to close the gap in the division as a win here gets the Redskins to within a game and a half while a loss here would make it a 3.5-game deficit and the loss of head-to-head tiebreaker. These teams played back in September with Washington closing as a 3.5-point favorite so we are seeing a massive line change in the second meeting. Sure Dallas is 8-0 since that first meeting but Washington is 6-1-1 over the same stretch and the two non-wins could have been victories as the Redskins outgained both Detroit and Cincinnati. Washington is a better team than Baltimore yet is getting a bigger number than the Ravens. Dallas has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far and with Washington being 2-1-1 on the road, this is the first time this season the Cowboys are playing a team with a winning road record. 10* (109) Washington Redskins

Minnesota snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over Arizona last Sunday and while it was a much needed win, it was not overly impressive as the Vikings were outgained by 73 yards. They returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown and returned a kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown and those were the obvious differences. Still, they are in good shape to start another winning streak. Detroit has won two straight and five of its last six games to keep pace in the division as the Lions remain tied with Minnesota at 6-4. This is a rare game on Thanksgiving for the Lions that actually means something as a win here not only gives them the lead but also gives them the tiebreaker by virtue of the 2-0 season sweep. However, this team is overrated right now as Detroit has been outgained in six of its last seven games and the stats tell the story as the offense is ranked No. 25 in total yards while the defense is ranked No. 19 in total yards. While the Minnesota offense is dead last in the league, the defense is ranked No. 3 overall and No. 2 in points allowed. That defense is a difference maker and that will be the case here. The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings

The Raiders are listed as the home team here and are favored at a home team price, maybe even more, but this is a neutral site game with huge value on the side of the Texans. As expected, this line has risen a bunch as it opened at 4.5 and has gone up two points in some places which is a great reason for not taking this game early in the week based on the expected line movement. Time off can be a momentum killer and that can certainly be the case with the Raiders tonight. Oakland has won three straight games and six of its last seven and because of the Chiefs loss yesterday, the Raiders have sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Houston is only a game worse than Oakland but the line is not taking that into consideration. The Texans have won their last two games and are a game and a half up in the AFC South. While the host is 8-1 in the nine Houston games, that cannot be taken into consideration here with the game being played in Mexico. The Texans are a bad matchup for the potent Raiders offense as they have yielded the third fewest passing scores (8) and passing yards per game (196.8) in the NFL. Oakland has outgained only two opponents this season and will have trouble in adding to that tonight. 10* (475) Houston Texans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Washington will be out for some payback following a loss to the Packers in the playoffs last season and under normal circumstances, we could by that. This is not a normal circumstance however. Washington defeated the Vikings last week after blowing a 14-0 lead but was able to win the second half 12-0 with four field goals. It is hard to get a grasp on this team as the Redskins have had narrow wins and narrow losses and even a tie in there. One thing we do know is that Green Bay cannot afford a fourth straight loss. The NFC playoff race is pretty wide open still will 11 teams possessing four or five wins. The Packers need to turn this around and this is the spot to do it with a third straight road gamed looming at Philadelphia next Monday night. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Redskins are 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (473) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL November Game of the Month. We have played on the Vikings the last two weeks and bad fortunes arose both times in the kicking game. Minnesota has now lost four straight games, covering none of those, after a 5-0 straight up and ATS start. The offense played a lot better last week than it did against Detroit as Sam Bradford had a solid game with the exception of an interception. Arizona is not nearly the same team that went 13-3 last season despite loads of talent on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals are not executing when they have to as they are outgaining most of their opponents but scores are closer than they should be and some resulting in outright losses. This is just the fourth road game of the season for Arizona, the first three resulting in losses at Buffalo and Carolina and an ugly win in San Francisco. Something has to give in this one with the Cardinals on a three-game winless ATS streak and we give a big edge to the home team. Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record while Minnesota is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (460) Minnesota Vikings

After a 7-2 start to the season, Kansas City is an incredible 17-2 in its last 19 regular season games and 18-3 in its last 21 games after a 1-5 start to last season. This includes a perfect 10-0 record at home leaving many of us scratching our heads on how they are accomplishing this. The Chiefs are getting outgained by 33.3 ypg and while a bulk of that came in one game against Jacksonville, they have been outgained in six of nine games including four wins. Having the best turnover margin in the NFL is the reason they are having success in the win column. Tampa Bay is right in the thick of the NFC playoff race and win here gets the Buccaneers back to .500. Tampa Bay is 3-1 on the road but surprisingly, it is getting more points here than 2-7 Jacksonville did just three weeks ago. The Buccaneers too have been outgained in the majority of their games but have had a knack for keeping things close. Kansas City has failed to cover both games when favored by a touchdown and Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games and 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games against teams with a winning home record. Additionally, the Chiefs are 0-7 in their last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (455) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is another line that makes absolutely no sense. The Bears, while they were blown out, ended up being favored in Tampa Bay last week and are now getting over a touchdown against the Giants. That is saying that New York is 10 points better than Tampa Bay and that is not the case at all, not even close. While Chicago is just 2-7, it has outgained five of nine opponents and is outgaining opponents on average overall. Turnovers have been the story which is always the case when stats do not line up with wins or losses. The Giants are sitting at 6-3 which is the third best record in the NFC thanks to four straight wins. All of those games could have been lost so give them credit for showing the ability to win in close situations but now they are completely overvalued. This is the most they have been favored by since Week Five of last season when they were favored by 7.5 points over San Francisco and snuck out a three-point win. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (457) Chicago Bears

Dallas is on a huge roll right now but everyone know that thanks to the media talking about it all the time. Clearly this is a great team but like the Giants, they are now hitting the other side of pricing and that means overpriced. The Cowboys have rarely been favored by a touchdown or more of late but now they are laying that size of a number to a very underrated team. Dallas has won and covered eight straight games and are now once again America's Team at the betting window. The Ravens picked up a big win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago and followed that up with an easy win over Cleveland last Thursday giving them a little extra time off for this one. Baltimore leads the NFL in total defense and is tied for third in points allowed at just 17.8 so this will be easy going for Dallas in the least bit. All four of the Baltimore losses have been by eight points or less and by an average of just 4.8 ppg. Here, we play on Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (463) Baltimore Ravens

New Orleans got hosed last week following a blocked extra point that would have given it the lead late and the subsequence return for Denver that was upheld despite Will Parks stepping out of bounds. Whether or not the Saints would have won in overtime is the question but nonetheless, that was a devastating loss and one that will be difficult to recover from. Carolina lost a heartbreaker as well as it blew a 17-0 lead against Kansas City by allowing 20 unanswered points. The Panthers outplayed the Chiefs as they won the yardage battle by 85 yards while forcing four field goals. The difference was turnovers as a late fumble allowed the game winning field goal while an interception return was the only touchdown for Kansas City. Remaining home is the key factor for the Panthers and they will have to take advantage of that with a pair of tough road games coming up. Carolina will be out for payback as well after losing to the Saints by a field goal last month. Carolina falls into a great situation based on the revenge angle where we play on favorites that are revenging a loss by seven points or less, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Carolina is 35-11 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points while going 18-4 ATS in its last 22 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. 10* (310) Carolina Panthers

The Bengals are coming off a bye week following a tie against the Redskins in London. They are now 3-4-1 on the season but are just a game behind the Ravens in the AFC North while tied in the loss column. While they do have a losing record, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 17 ypg. Coming off games in London, it seems predicable that teams would be tired from the travel even with a bye week sandwiched in there but that has not been the case. With the Washington win yesterday, teams are 10-0-1 ATS in the last 11 games following a trip over the pond. This includes a Giants cover against the Eagles last week following their game against the Rams but that was a deceptive win and cover. New York was outgained by 141 total yards but won thanks to bad coaching decisions by Philadelphia. It was actually the fourth time in five games that the Giants have been outgained yet they are still 3-2 over that stretch and a 0-5 record instead is not unrealistic. The five wins have come by an average of only 4.0 ppg and on the season, New York is getting outgained by over 31 ypg. Here, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game. 10* (275) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Play. While the Seahawks have the second best record in the NFC, many people are down on them as they have not looked very good in doing so. They have been outgained in four straight games and that is due to the offense which has not been very efficient but that changes here as the Patriots defense is not that strong. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is as good as promised as it is ranked No. 9 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Tom Brady has been lights out since his return from a four-game suspension but he has not faced a defense of this caliber yet. And while all four wins have been blowouts, the Patriots have had the luxury of facing Landry Jones and Charlie Whitehurst which has padded the already average defensive numbers. In their last home game against Cincinnati, the Patriots were favored by the same amount of points as they are here and the Bengals cannot be compared to Seattle. Since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback, the Seahawks have lost 22 games and only two have been by more than a touchdown. Going back, the Seahawks are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (273) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. After a 4-1 start, the Steelers have lost three straight games and are now a half-game behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger made his return last week and there was visible rust as he was basically game-day decision and came in with limited preparation time. Now he has had a full week of practice with the first team and will be in much better shape physically as well. After Tony Romo went down, no one Dallas a chance but it has been a huge surprise thanks to the play of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have reeled off seven straight wins and covers including four on the road. Two of those were against Cleveland and San Francisco however and this will not be the biggest road test of the season. Because of the opposite runs, we are laying a shorter than anticipated price and just below a key number which adds more value to it. While coming off a divisional loss can be deflating to some teams, that will not be the case for the Steelers because the skid goes back further and all with an unhealthy Roethlisberger. And how much has it affected Pittsburgh in the past? Not much as the Steelers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games off a divisional loss as a favorite. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played on the Vikings last week and it was an unfortunate loss for them as a missed extra point, a blocked field goal and a Detroit 58-yard field goal sent the game into overtime which they eventually lost. That was the third straight loss for Minnesota and just like that, it is being written off. This is exactly the time to ride the Vikings however as we can buy them low. Washington is coming off its bye week following its game in London where it tied Cincinnati. Following four straight wins, the Redskins are 0-1-1 in their last two games and while heading home may seem like the way to get back into the win column, they are just 2-2 at home this season. As mentioned last week, the Vikings have a new offensive coordinator after Norv Turner resigned and while it did not do much good last Sunday, the additional week heading into Washington will be important. Minnesota falls into a solid contrarian rushing situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 or fewer ypc going up against teams allowing 4.5 or more ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (261) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons started the season 4-1 and after a couple close losses out west, they have won their last two games including a win at Tampa Bay last Thursday. Because of that, they get a little extra rest but can almost negate that because of the travel aspect on both ends of it. Matt Ryan is having an MVP season but the defense is still a work in progress so Atlanta has been fortunate that Ryan has been there to bail out the stop unit. That should not be the case today as the Eagles are desperate for a victory after losses in four of their last five games. They have really only played one bad game which came against Washington as the other three losses were all winnable. The schedule did not help matter as four of those five games were on the road. Philadelphia is 3-0 at home including impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Minnesota so this will only add to it. Here, we play against road favorites after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 on the season. Despite the solid run, the Falcons are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites and they are in that role after opening as underdogs. Bad line move. 10* (260) Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore got itself back into the AFC North race by defeating Pittsburgh to pull into a tie with the Steelers for first place at 4-4. It has been an up and down year for the Ravens which opened the season 3-0, none of which were dominant victories, and then dropped four straight before the win last week. Baltimore has now been outgained in four straight games. The Browns disaster of a season continues as they were thoroughly outplayed last week against the Cowboys. As mentioned last week, they have been extremely competitive in half of their games while getting bullied around by some of the elite teams like Dallas and New England. Baltimore is far from an elite team. Cleveland could have won the first meeting as it built a 20-0 lead only to see it completely disappear in the 25-20 loss. A blocked extra point returned for two points really turned the game as did a shoulder injury to Browns quarterback Josh McCown. We have two contrarian situations on our side. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (109) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Oakland is 6-2 for the first time since 2001, going 5-0 on the road to begin a season for the first time since 1977. The Raiders absolutely dominated Tampa Bay last week despite needing overtime to win as they outgained the Buccaneers by 356 yards but of course that does not take into consideration the 200 penalty yards on 23 penalties. That skewed amount has closed the gap in yardage differential and this was the first game that Oakland has actually won the yardage battle. Denver has bounced back from a pair of losses with a pair of victories at home the last two weeks. The offense has looked much better following a small lull and should be productive again facing the No. 31 defense in the NFL. On the other side, the Broncos lead the league in pass defense, almost 7 yards better than the next team and have frustrated every quarterback they have faced. It is important to note that the Raiders wins have all been against teams with non-winning records. Denver should be playing with a chip on its shoulder as one of its two home losses from last season came against the Raiders. The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and as good as the Raiders have been on the road, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (471) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Carolina opened the season 1-1 but then went on to lose its next four games to fall into last place in the NFC South. The Panthers then hit their bye week which could not have come at a better time and they then went out and defeated Arizona last week. We played on Carolina in that game but that was mostly based on the fact the Cardinals were coming off an overtime game where five full quarters were played and then had to head east for an early start. Now it is the Panthers that have to deal with a lengthy travel assignment against a team coming off a bye week. The Rams played in London two weeks ago which resulted in a loss against the Giants, their third straight defeat overall. Los Angeles surprisingly outgained all three of those opponents however so it has been competitive. Turnovers have been the issue as to why the Rams have avoided the win column during this stretch. If the Rams offensive line can give quarterback Case Keenum enough protection, then he should have no problem finding an open receiver against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Rams are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Panthers have failed to cover their last seven road games. 10* (466) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFC North Game of the Year. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but the dreaded momentum killing bye week came and they have gone on to lose their last two games against the Eagles and Bears. Those games were on the road however and a return home will help them tremendously. In a surprising move this week, offensive coordinator Norv Turner suddenly resigned and while some may think that will be big distraction, it will only help as the offense became stagnant the last two games, scoring just 10 points in each game. The Lions were riding a three-game winning streak going into last week but lost in Houston by a touchdown. Detroit is now 1-3 on the road and it heads to Minnesota at the wrong time. While the passing offense has been spot on, the Lions will be facing their biggest test as the Vikings have held six of seven opponents below their passer rating average and in five of those games, they have held quarterbacks at least 15 points below their passer rating average. The Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (454) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Browns are the lone winless team in the NFL at 0-8 but they have played a lot better than that record suggests. They have played five road games thus far while one of the home games came against the Patriots which was the first game back for Tom Brady. In the other two home games, Cleveland had a chance to win both but fell just short, losing those by a combined eight points. The Browns have outgained half of their opponents so they have been a very competitive 0-8 squad. Dallas lost its season opener against the Giants but has reeled off six straight wins after its overtime victory against Philadelphia last week. The Cowboys have covered all six of those games so it comes as no surprise that the public is all over them again as they are the third biggest consensus pick of the week. Coming off that victory over the Eagles and with a game at Pittsburgh on deck, this could signal a very flat spot for the Cowboys this week. A big boost to the Cleveland offense should be the return of wide receiver Corey Coleman who had 173 yards and two touchdowns in two games but broke his hand in practice the following week and has not played since. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played some high scoring games recently and because of that, we are getting a good total to work with this Thursday. The Falcons have gone over the total in their last three games as well as seven of their eight games on the season so their games have certainly been entertaining. Tampa Bay is not far behind as it has gone over in two straight games and is 4-3 to the over on the season. The Buccaneers do not possess the same type of offense that Atlanta does as they have scored seven points twice as well as 17 points in another game. The defense has struggled, as has the Falcons defense, which are definitely concerns but the second meeting in a season is usually as advantage for the defenses. In divisional games in general, the defenses have an edge as going back, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in divisional games. This situation is 80-46 (63.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Atlanta falls into a subset where the same situation applies and one of the teams has gone over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Atlanta Falcons/(308) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bears fell to 1-6 following their loss last Thursday night against the Packers as the offense managed just 189 total yards. Part of the problem was quarterback Brian Hoyer having to leave the game with the broken arm and Matt Barkley getting thrown into action in his first game since 2014. Chicago now gets Jay Cutler back after missing five games with a thumb injury so it is a big upgrade on offense. Chicago has actually outgained four of seven opponents this season so it has had some tough losses along the way. Minnesota is a big public favorite here despite a loss in Philadelphia last week. The Vikings have struggled on the road even though they are 2-1 as they were outgained by the Titans and Panthers in both of their road victories. Bears running back Jeremy Langford will return from a sprained ankle that has kept him out for the past four games and that is a big boost for Chicago as its running game has been pretty non-existent since he went down. While the Bears have struggled on offense, Minnesota has not fared much better as it is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 ypg, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 ypg game. Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

Green Bay snapped out of its offensive funk as it put up 406 total yards in its win against the Bears last Thursday. Now the Packers hit the road for the first time since September 18 as they played four straight home games with a bye put in there as well. That should not be an issue here because of the extra layoff from Thursday to the following Sunday. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had struggled through most of the first five games, turned to a quick-hitting passing game to complete a team-record 39 passes. The Falcons are coming off a pair of losses, one in Seattle and the other last week at home against the Chargers. After a 4-1 start, it is beginning to look a lot like last season when the Falcons started 5-0 and closed by winning just three of their last 11 games. They fall into a tough situation where we play against home teams after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Green Bay is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a divisional game while the Falcons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers

This is a quick turnaround for the Broncos to get some revenge von San Diego after they suffered their second loss in San Diego on October 13. We are not playing that angle however as Denver is not playing great right now as even a 27-9 win was not as good as the score shows as they outgained the Texans by just 76 total yards. While the defense is one of the best in the league, the offense is a mess as they are ranked No. 27 in total offense and No. 28 in passing offense. The running game is the strength but that took a huge hit with C.J. Anderson likely out for the season. The Chargers won in overtime at Atlanta last week to improve to 3-4 but that is a very skewed record. If bad breaks had gone their way, they could have at least two more wins as three of those losses have come by eight points combined while the other loss came in overtime opening week at Kansas City. Denver had won five straight meetings prior to the last one and these are more equal than people think making this spread way too high. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, San Diego is 9-1 in its last 10 road games while under head coach Mike McCoy, the Chargers are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog between 3.7 and 7 points. 10* (267) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our October Game of the Month. After a 1-3 start to the season, Detroit has reeled off three straight wins to remain in the hunt in the NFC North. The issue is twofold however as all three of those victories took place at home and in all three instances, the Lions were outgained by their opponents. The total combined victory margin was just seven points so while winning close games is huge, Detroit could be sitting at 1-6. We played against Houston Monday as it lost to Denver by 18 points to fall to 4-3 on the season. The next day, all of the talk was how bad of a deal the Texans made with Brock Osweiler and while he has been struggling, the schedule has been brutal. Three games against Denver, Minnesota and New England is bad enough but when they are all on the road, it makes it nearly impossible. Houston is 4-0 at home and has won eight of its last nine regular season home games, the lone defeat coming last year against the Patriots. We have a great situation on our side as well as we play against road teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off an upset win as a home underdog while Houston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite. 10* (256) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great setup for Carolina whose season is pretty much on the line. The Panthers are 1-5 and need to start some sort of run to make it back into the playoffs. They are coming off their bye week which could not have come at a better time with the way they have been playing as well as to rest some injuries issues. They catch Arizona coming off a tie at home last Sunday night against Seattle and now laying an early game on the east coast, which was originally scheduled for Sunday night is not ideal for the Cardinals. Arizona is struggling this season as well despite a favorable schedule with five of its first seven games taking place at home. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. Also, Carolina is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while Arizona is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (270) Carolina Panthers

The Saints cashed for us last week in Kansas City and it was a game they could have won as they lost the turnover battle 2-0 including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. New Orleans outgained the Chiefs by 137 total yards but ultimately fell to 2-4 on the season. The Saints have played better than that however as two other losses came by a combined four points while the fourth loss they also won the yardage battle. Seattle is coming off a 6-6 tie in Arizona where they were outgained by 186 total yards. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. The Seahawks were cruising along with three straight wins but they have only two comfortable wins on the season and those came against the 1-6 49ers and 2-5 Jets. The offense has been inconsistent and while the Saints defense is nothing special, the spot is just a horrible one. New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while going 18-7 in 25 games under Sean Payton following a loss of six points or less. 10* (258) New Orleans Saints

We have seen the under come through the last two Thursday night games and we can expect to see another one tonight barring any fluky scoring. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 324 ypg and 19.5 ppg. There's talk that if Bortles can't turn things around, the coaching staff could bench him for backup Chad Henne. That would be an admission that Bortles isn't the long-term answer. The real problem is that the offensive line has been unable to open holes for the running game and will have problems against the Titans pass rush. Tackle Kelvin Beachum will likely play but is far from 100 percent. Tennessee is allowing just 338 ypg, good for No. 10 in the league. The Titans are putting up decent numbers on offense but are averaging just 20.9 ppg which is No. 21 in the NFL. Tennessee will have to play without guard Quinton Spain, who figures to be out for at least the next two games after being injured in the second quarter last Sunday. That could make it a bit easier for Jacksonville to neutralize DeMarco Murray, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 633 yards. The Jaguars defense has allowed more points than expected but a lot of that is blamed on the offense with turnover setting up a short field for opponents. Overall, Jacksonville is allowing just 325.2 ypg which is No. 9 in the league. Jacksonville went over in its last game while Tennessee has gone over the total in four straight games which sets up a great situation as we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off two or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 61-28 (68.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (101) Jacksonville Jaguars/Tennessee Titans

Denver opened the season with a 4-0 record but has since dropped its last two games, both by just one possession but that sets the Broncos up perfectly for this Monday night game. Their last loss came last Thursday so they have had extra rest as they head back home with a little revenge placed on top of it. The Texans defeated the Colts in their last game and they could very well still be celebrating that one after coming back from a 14-point deficit late in the fourth quarter and eventually winning in overtime. Houston improved to 4-0 at home but it has lost both of its road games, neither of which were even close as they dropped those games by a combined score of 58-13. Obviously the return of Brock Osweiler to Denver is the big story here and that gives the Broncos a huge advantage. The Denver defense should understand the weaknesses of Brock Osweiler better than anyone and it should be exposed Monday with the biggest being that he holds the ball way too long. The pass rush for the Broncos is sensational and this only adds to their success tonight. Additionally, their talented secondary, led by cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., leads the league by allowing an average of just 182.3 passing ypg. On the other side, the Texans are already without J.J. Watt and their secondary took a big hit with the loss of outstanding corner Kevin Johnson while safety Quintin Demps will miss a second straight game. Denver falls into a solid situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (478) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers finally had a game go their way as they opened up a 21-3 lead and held on for the much needed victory over the Broncos. It was just their second win on the season but are arguably the best 2-4 team in the NFL as they are getting outgained by just 8.0 ypg and have been on the other side of good luck the majority of the season. San Diego hits the road where it is winless but could be 3-0 instead of 0-3 but the line is taking that actual record into consideration and it is overinflated. It is also too high based on the start the Falcons have had as they are 4-2 but are coming off a loss last week in Seattle. Atlanta has covered five straight games which is a red flag and another sure sign of value going the other way. Atlanta has been underdogs in five straight games and now suddenly it goes to nearly a touchdown favorite and that is simply too big of a jump. The Chargers offense has been solid this season and has a good matchup against an awful Falcons defense. While winning on the road has not been happening for San Diego, they remain competitive as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine roadies. Meanwhile the Falcons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 95-125 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 70-95 rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Dolphins picked up a much needed win last week over Pittsburgh which snapped a two-game slide and put them in the positive for the first time yardage differential. Sure the Ben Roethlisberger injury helped as it put the Steelers offense in check but he does not play defense and the Miami offense exploded for 474 yards. This offense has the potential to do that often and last week was no anomaly as it was the first time all season long that the starting offensive line was able to play together. The good news coming out of last week is that there is not a single offensive lineman on the injury report this week. The Bills have won four straight games but it is not an overly impressive run. They defeated the Cardinals who are simply not right and were on the east coast for an early game, the Patriots who were down to the third string quarteback, the Rams who have been outgained in all but two games and the 49ers who are just plain terrible. Because of the streak, Buffalo is favored on the road and should not be. The Bills go some bad news as LeSean McCoy will be out for this game because of a hamstring injury. Additionally, the Bills are part of a contrarian rushing situation that even stings more with McCoy not playing. We play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 100-57 ATS (63.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Miami Dolphins

The Minnesota bandwagon is pretty full right now and rightfully so. The Vikings are 5-0 to start the season, have covered all five of those games and going back to the start of last season, they are 19-3 ATS which is pretty incredible. We are stepping in front of this bandwagon however as the Minnesota schedule, which looked tough at the start of the season, has not been as all five of the opponents have been underachieving with the exception of Tennessee. While they are winning and covering, the Vikings are not dominating as they are outgaining opponents by just 15 ypg. The Eagles have dropped two straight games following a 3-0 start but both of those losses came on the road. They were completely outplayed last week against the Redskins but should have won in Detroit the previous week as they outgained the Lions by 102 total yards but lost by a point. In its two home games, Philadelphia dominated in both winning by a combined score of 63-13 and outgaining the Browns and Steelers by a combined 290 yards. We have two situations in our favor as well. First, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles

We won with the Chiefs last week over the Raiders and that was mostly a play against Oakland which has now been outgained in all six of its games this season. Kansas City returns home where it is 2-0 but one win needed a miracle comeback against San Diego and the other win came against the hapless Jets. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their five games this season and while last week was the most dominant performance as far as stats go, the weather played a big part in that as the conditions were totally against the Raiders gameplan. New Orleans has won two straight games following a 0-3 start but two of those three losses could have and should have been victories. The Saints lost in the finals seconds against Oakland and then lost on a last second field goal against the Giants. The defense remains the enigma but we are far from sold on the Kansas City offense to take full advantage. Drew Brees is having a great season thus far as he is tied for third in the NFL with 14 touchdowns and is one of just six quarterbacks with a QB rating of more than 100. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (455) New Orleans Saints

The Redskins are tied with the Bills for the second longest current winning streak in the league with four consecutive victories. It is a deceiving run however. While Washington dominated Philadelphia last week, it was outgained by both the Giants and Browns while it outgained the Ravens by just four total yards. The Redskins are 2-0 on the road but benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown in Baltimore while needing a last minute field goal in New York. Detroit comes in at 3-3 after having won its last two games. While it can be argued they could have lost the last two games, it can also be argued that it could have won two games it lost against the Titans and Bears. Also, the Lions nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Packers. The offense has not missed a beat with the absence of Calvin Johnson as Matthew Stafford is third in the NFL with a 106.0 QB rating while throwing 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This is a big game to keep pace in the NFC North as this is the third straight home game and they hit the road to face Houston and Minnesota over the next two weeks. Defensively, the Lions need to force more turnovers as their four takeaways are third fewest in the league. Washington falls into a negative situation as we play against teams that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 75-30 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Detroit Lions

Both Green Bay and Chicago have seen their offenses struggle this season as they are ranked No. 17 and No. 31 respectively in points per game. The defenses are also both ranked in the latter half of the league so we have a good opportunity for the offenses to bust out. The Packers scoring output has declined in each of its last three games but as those games progressed, the defenses got better each time. Chicago meanwhile has scored more than 17 points only once this season which is pretty shocking considering it is ranked No. 7 in yards per game but part of the problem is down and distance as the Bears are ranked No. 28 in third down conversions and No. 30 in fourth down conversions. That has not been the problem for Green Bay which is ranked No. 1 in third down conversions at 49.3 percent. They have only 102 first downs which is tied for No. 26 and because of that, the offense does not have the ball much. The 104.3 quarterback rating for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 17 career games against the Bears is the highest of the quarterbacks who have attempted at least 175 passes against Chicago in their careers. Chicago falls into a great over situation as we play the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 to 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between (18 to 23 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 137-84 (62 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (301) Chicago Bears/(302) Green Bay Packers

This is a big game for both sides and could define the rest of the season. A fifth loss for the Jets would be devastating and likely end any sort of playoff hopes as there are already nine teams in the AFC with .500 or better records. The NFC has 10 teams are .500 or better so the Cardinals cannot afford to slip up much either but based on this spread, they are a much more dominant team than the Jets and that is simply not the case. Both quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played below average but the difference in this game could come down to the running game in the trenches and that is where New York has the advantage. The Cardinals will be playing without both of their starting guards because of ankle injuries as right guard Evan Mathis is on IR and Mike Iupati is expected to miss at least one to two more weeks. Both John Wetzel and Earl Watford filled in adequately last week but the competition gets a lot tougher this week against the Jets ferocious defensive line. On the other side, the Cardinals allow 4.6 ypc and 118.2 ypg on the ground, so the opportunity is there if the Jets offensive line is able to control the trenches. The Jets have two great situations on their side. First, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 91-52 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Secondly, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arizona 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games. 10* (277) New York Jets

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. After losing their season opener, the Falcons have won four straight games including three on the road. They have looked dominant the last two weeks against Carolina and Denver but at this point in the season, both of those teams look like they have taken a step back so those wins are not quite as good as they would have looked last season. Speaking of last season, remember the Falcons started the season 5-0 and went on to lose eight of their last 11 games and we can expect another digression this season. The Seahawks are off to a 3-1 start and are coming off their bye week which is a good thing for them to rest some injuries, especially for quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle has won the yardage battle in all four of its games including both home games by 138 yards and 164 yards. Granted, those were against a couple of losing teams but in this case we fell that the Falcons are an overrated bunch right now. The Falcons have a negative situation as we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games against teams that are allowing 375 or more ypg. The Falcons are allowing 388.8 ypg which is No. 26 in the league. 10* (272) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Chiefs have had two weeks to stew over its blowout loss at Pittsburgh prior to their bye week so we will see a full out effort this Sunday. Kansas City is in a must win spot here as a loss puts it three games behind the Raiders in the AFC West. The Raiders are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL as they are off to a 4-1 start to take the early division lead. However, they are the most overrated divisional leader and that is proven by the fact that they have been outgained in all five games this season. Give them credit for winning close games but that is eventually going to switch. Kansas City has two very favorable situations on its side. First, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a non-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road teams in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential., after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less while Oakland is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (269) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Dolphins are riding a two-game losing streak after arguably their worst game of the season last week at home against Tennessee as they lost 30-17 and were outgained by 198 total yards. Now they go from a 2.5-point favorite to over a touchdown underdog at home and that is a huge line shift. Teams are typically not as bad as their last game and not as good as they were in their last game and that is what the public is seeing with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a pair of blowout wins at home over the Chiefs and Jets and those results are inflating this line as well. Pittsburgh was destroyed in its last road game at Philadelphia and in its other road game at Washington, it won by 22 points but outgained the Redskins by just 53 total yards. Here, we play against favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-15 ATS in its 20 road games after covering the spread in four out of its last five games and under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 9-18 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Dolphins meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a non-losing road record. 10* (258) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We made a bad call going against the Patriots last week as the return of Tom Brady went a lot better than what was expected. Because of that, New England is laying a huge number against a team that may not be as good as the Patriots but it is not that much worse than what this number is telling us. Granted, the Patriots are a different team with Brady behind center however they did go 3-1 without him and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 32.2 ypg. The Bengals are coming off a loss at Dallas last week to fall to 2-3 on the season but despite that losing record, they are outgaining opponents by 27.8 ypg which shows how close these teams are to each other. The Patriots have a game at Pittsburgh next week followed by a road revenge at Buffalo the following week so the chance of a lookahead is always there. The Bengals has a great situation on their side as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 104-59 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. 10* (251) Cincinnati Bengals

Denver is coming off its first loss of the season against Atlanta last week as the offense could get nothing going. The Broncos rushed for just 84 yards on 24 carries (3.5 ypc) while Paxton Lynch was pretty unsuccessful in his first start, throwing for 223 yards but was sacked six times. A lot of that had to do with the banged up offensive line but the good news is that right tackle Donald Stephenson, who missed the game with a calf injury, is slated to return here. Starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is also expected to return which is definitely a big deal as well. The Chargers have to be the unluckiest team in the NFL as they are off to a 1-4 start but have lost those four games by a combined 14 points with the biggest loss coming by six points in overtime in their season opener at Kansas City. While unlucky on the scoreboard, San Diego has also been unlucky with the injuries as their injury report this week is 17 players deep including 10 players on IR. The big news here is that Denver head coach Gary Kubiak is out for this game after spending some time in the hospital. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis is serving as the interim head coach and while that may seem like a disadvantage, it really is not one. Defensive coordinator stated that the Broncos plan to rally around Kubiak and win this game for him. San Diego is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams completing 61 percent or more of their passes (Siemian is at 67.3 percent) while going 0-6 ATS in its last six divisional home games. Conversely, Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six divisional road games. Additionally, Denver has won 15 consecutive divisional road games, the longest streak in NFL history. 10* (103) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Play. After opening the season with two straight wins, the Giants have dropped their last two games. They lost a winnable game against the Redskins and then lost to a very good Minnesota team last week. New York is outgaining opponents by 36 ypg so it is playing above average despite its average record. The Giants have failed to cover the last three games which is giving us value in this number plus it is inflated because of the team they are playing. Green Bay is a very public team but is has turned into a very average team. The Packers two covers are by just a point and a half combined and they have been outgained in all three games and by an average of 56.3 ypg, fifth worst in the NFL. The short week should not affect the Giants as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Packers have failed to cover their last three games when favored by a touchdown or more and they lost two of those outright. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points n a game involving two teams with a point differential between +3 and -3, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 62-26 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) New York Giants

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Enforcer. While the start of the Raiders is great at 3-1, this is a fraudulent 3-1 team. They have been outgained in all four games and by an average of 67.5 ypg which is the third worst average in the entire league. Oakland is coming off a pair of east coast wins and that is tough for a team to regroup from because of all the travel. San Diego is off to just the exact opposite start as it is 1-3 but their three losses have been games they could have one. They lost to the Chiefs in overtime after blowing a big lead, they lost to the Colts on a 63-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 remaining and they lost to the Saints last week on a touchdown with 1:57 left. San Diego is getting outgained by just 10.7 ypg and are in good shape to bounce back in what is considered a must win game. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 108-63 ATS (63.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Oakland is 2-12 in its last 14 home games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-15 in its last 18 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Game of the Week. There are a lot of stats out there that Philadelphia is in a bad spot because it won as a home underdog in its last game but what is not being taken into account is the fact that the Eagles are coming off their bye week which changes everything. Teams coming off a bye week can throw that last game out the window as any letdown factor is gone and history shows the Eagles are in a near perfect spot as undefeated favorites coming off their bye week are 26-5 ATS since 2000 including a 17-1 ATS record when their opponents is coming off a loss. The Lions are coming off a bad loss to the Bears and while it was just a three-point loss, they were outgained by 145 total yards. They have also been outrushed in their last three games and that is not a good stat against the Eagles which have won the yardage battle in all three of their games. Additionally, we play against home teams that are coming off two consecutive road losses, with a losing record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Browns let us down last week as late turnovers, including a very controversial fumble, did them in. They return home for just their second home game of the season and despite being 0-4, they have been outgained by just 27 yards combined all season. The Patriots are one of the biggest public bets this week as they are welcoming back Tom Brady while coming off a shutout loss at home so the consensus feels they will bounce back big. The problem is they are extremely overvalued here as this line is way too high and given the fact Brady was unable to practice during his entire suspension, who knows how he is going to play. Cleveland falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 125-67 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1983. On top of that, New England is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. 10* (456) Cleveland Browns

We were waiting on a status update of Carson Palmer before making a call on this game and as expected, he is more than likely now not going to play. That means Drew Stanton will be making his first start since 2014 and after a rough go of it last week in relief, we can expect to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Cardinals. They will not be taking many chances downfield unless they have to come from behind again which is unlikely in this matchup. The 49ers offense has been pretty offensive as they are ranked No. 29 in total offense and their scoring output has declines in each of their four games. Despite the three losses, the Cardinals defense has been potent as they are ranked No. 7 overall and it has been turnovers on the offensive end that have hurt them the most. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has played slot corner on just 11 percent of his snaps this season compared to 62 percent last season. He will be playing closer to the box where he can have more of a direct impact on plays. San Francisco cannot get the ball downfield so they will turn to Carlos Hyde who has been running the ball very well. San Francisco falls into a totals situation where we play the under after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents. This situation is 85-49 (63.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Arizona also falls into a totals situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points versus division opponents, off a division game. This situation is 78-39 (66.7 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, San Francisco is 8-0 under its last eight home conference games and 7-0 under its last seven games at home against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Meanwhile the under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (303) Arizona Cardinals/(304) San Francisco 49ers

Everyone will be taking a look at the Minnesota record and figure it should be a bigger favorite here following impressive wins over Green Bay and Carolina. Those are a pair of flawed teams however so those wins cannot be taken overly serious while the other win against Tennessee meant little as well. The Vikings have actually been outgained by their three opponents by a combined 81 total yards. The Giants suffered their first loss of the season against Washington as they blew leads of 14-3 and 21-9 no thanks to two big plays from the Washington offense. The Giants did win the yardage battle and on the season they have outgained their opponents by an average 57 ypg. On paper and due to the meeting last year between the two teams, many feel this should be an easy win for the Vikings. However, the Giants defense is a much improved unit when compared to the group they fielded in the 49-17 Week 16 loss to the Vikings last year. Additionally, the offense has more weapons as well with a now healthy Victor Cruz and rookie sensation Sterling Shepard. While running backs Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen are out, Orleans Darkwa carried the ball 10 times for 53 yards and one touchdown last week against Washington. Two great situations fall on the Giants side as well. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or fewer rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (277) New York Giants

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Cardinals are a disappointing 1-2 on the season following a blowout loss in Buffalo last Sunday. The Cardinals lost the turnover battle 5-1 so the fact they outgained the Bills by 51 yards meant nothing. This is a big game for Arizona as a loss would drop it two games behind the Rams and potentially Seattle should the Seahawks defeat the Jets earlier in the day. We feel we are getting good value with this number because it has been adjusted due to the fact that Arizona has covered just two of its last seven home games. Los Angeles is off to a 2-1 start but it is a fraudulent record to say the least. The Rams have been outgained in all three of their games and it has been substantial as they have been outgained by an average of 103.3 ypg. That makes the record very misleading and gives Arizona a huge opportunity to bounce back. Not counting Week 17 last season as that game meant nothing, the Cardinals lost only one other home game and that came against the Rams so there is definitely revenge coming into play. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 61-30 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Additionally, under head Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are 13-5 ATS versus teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (274) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Hold your nose for this one. San Francisco is back home following a pair of road losses to Carolina and Seattle, two of the NFC heavyweights, both of which came by 19 points. The 49ers won their lone home game against the Rams, a game in which they dominated by not allowing a single point while outgaining Los Angeles by 135 total yards. San Francisco is No. 14 in the NFL in points scored while ranking No. 20 in total defense and those rankings are far from horrible. Dallas has looked pretty good so far this season with a 2-1 record and it could easily be 3-0 as the one loss came by just a single point to the Giants but the numbers that back up that record have not been as good. Overall, the Cowboys have outgained their opponents by just 17 yards total with the host holding the advantage in all three games. Dak Prescott has done a solid job at quarterback but Dallas should not be favored on the road in this spot as it is based on perception of Dallas being now a strong team and San Francisco being horrible once again. That really is not the case however. San Francisco has a contrarian rushing situation in its favor as we play against road favorites that are allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Game of the Week. Washington picked up its first win of the season last week against the Giants but did not play particularly well. The Redskins were outgained by 54 yards as the defense struggled yet again and they are now allowing 424.7 ypg and 30.7 ppg, both ranked No. 29 in the league. The offense moved the ball okay but were unable to sustain drives as they were 0-4 in the redzone and had to settle for five field goals. Cleveland lost another heartbreaker last week as it fell in overtime against the Dolphins. This came after blowing a 20-0 lead against Baltimore and while the Browns are 0-3, they have played better than that. Cody Kessler played pretty decent in his first start at quarterback and gets a much easier test this week with the Washington defense. On the other side, cornerback Joe Haden returns after missing last week with a groin injury and his presence will be important here. Two situations favor the Browns as well. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by 6 or less points. This situation is 86-40 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS/HOUSTON TEXANS OVER for our Sunday Totals Dominator. This is a contrarian totals play as we have seen Tennessee stay under the number in its last two games by a combined 37 points and in the season opener that went over, it surpassed the number by just one point. Those results give us value with this total as it is down by a touchdown from the last two games. Houston meanwhile has stayed under the number in all three of its games and none have really been close to going over. The Texans were shutout last week in New England 27-0 despite getting actually outgaining the Patriots by two yards. They were done in by a 3-0 turnover disadvantage as the offense was able to move the ball at a steady pace but failed to sustain their drives. The defense did get gashed for 185 yards rushing on 39 carries (4.7 ypc) and while the defense has played at a high level overall this season, the loss of J.J. Watt cannot be overstated. The Tennessee offense has not produced as it should be as it is averaging just 14 ppg which is dead last in the league but the titans are No. 19 in total offense so they are moving the ball and have a chance to break out here. Tennessee has a great contrarian situation on its side as we play the over involving road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, the over is 7-0 in the Texans last seven games in October while the over is 7-2-1 in the Titans last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (263) Tennessee Titans/(264) Houston Texans

A pair of struggling teams take the field Thursday night as Miami and Cincinnati are both off to 1-2 starts. The schedules have not been easy for either team but that is really no excuse as both are underachieving. Miami nearly fell to 0-3 but escaped with an overtime win last week against Cleveland which was playing with a third-string rookie quarterback and it still outgained the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Bengals are a field goal miss away from being 0-3 as they opened the season with a win against the Jets thanks to a 47-yard field goal from Mike Nugent with just 54 seconds remaining. Cincinnati has lost its last two games to Pittsburgh and Denver which is nothing to be ashamed of but both of those games could have gone either way. That being said, the fact we have two desperate teams in need of a big win means we should have a very competitive game as there is very little dropoff between Miami and Cincinnati. Yet, the linesmakers are giving Cincinnati a lot of credit here but it has done nothing to prove it deserves it. Miami was a 5.5-point underdog at New England two weeks ago and even without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are a better team than the Bengals. Additionally, the Dolphins are seeing over a 17-point swing from last week to this week which is a huge variance in this league and one that should prove to be too big. Miami has not been a touchdown underdog to any team not named New England since September of 2013. 10* (101) Miami Dolphins

New Orleans comes into Monday night in pretty much must win mode and it could not happen on a better night. This is the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It is almost 10 years ago to the day that the Saints defeated the Falcons 23-3 highlighted by the epic Steve Gleason blocked punt return and while the atmosphere will not be as crazy, it will be close. New Orleans dropped its opener against the Raiders by a point on a last second two-point conversion at home before losing by a field goal last week in New York against the Giants so it has been victim of some unfortunate luck. The Falcons meanwhile have split their first two games, losing at home by a touchdown to the Buccaneers and winning in Oakland by a touchdown last week. Matt Ryan has looked outstanding in his first two gamers and he will be asked to shoulder the load once again as without any pressure up front, Atlanta's defense has struggled. The Falcons unit ranks 26th against the run, 23rd against the pass and second-to-last in sacks per pass attempt. The Saints defense is not much better but they put together a great gameplan last week as they used a lot of packages employing three safeties and played more zone coverage. Under head coach Sean Payton, New Orleans has gone 14-4 against the Falcons including an 8-2 record at home since 2006. Going back, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while the Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (490) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Star Attraction. Chicago has gotten off to a rough start by going 0-2 but it has not been as bad as that record shows. The Bears hung tough with the Texans in Week One before losing by nine points and last week they were did in by the Eagles and had no chance after Jay Cutler went down. Brian Hoyer will be starting this week and while he was unable to mount a comeback last week, having a full week of preparation instead of getting thrown into the fire is big. The Cowboys have split their two games with the Giants and Redskins and easily could also be sitting at 0-2. While the Dallas defense has allowed just 21.5 ppg, the unit has not been very good as they have allowed 374 ypg. Dak Prescott has played pretty well for a rookie but he has an 83.1 passer rating and while he has yet to throw a pick, he has yet to throw a touchdown either. Because of the Cutler injury, this line is way overpriced as these teams are not that far off from each other. Dallas has notoriously been a poor play as a home favorite as it has covered just of its last 25 games in this role. Going back to 2014, Chicago is 1-11 in its last 12 home games but a much more respectable 5-4 in its last nine road games. Additionally, the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (487) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tampa Bay played a great game in its season opening win over Atlanta and it was just the opposite last week at Arizona as the Buccaneers were throttled 40-7 no thanks to five turnovers including four interceptions from Jameis Winston. Expect a big bounce back effort from him and we will no doubt see a better effort from the defense that has allowed 32 ppg. This is the home opener for Tampa Bay and while its home field advantage is not a great one, it is more advantageous this time of year because of the heat and humidity. The Rams have been just the opposite through two games as well but theirs have been reversed. They were awful in their opener against a horrible San Francisco teams, losing 28-0 and getting outgained by 135 yards. Last week, Los Angeles upset the Seahawks at home but managed only nine points on offense in doing so. This offense has a long ways o go and while the defense looked very strong against the Seahawks, Seattle has its own offensive issues going on. The Rams were still outgained last week despite the win. This line has been creeping yup but for good reason and we will back the favorite in what could have blowout potential. Going back, the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (480) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Month. This is a complete overreaction to what happened last week. After losing to Denver in their season opener, the Panthers rolled over San Francisco on Sunday. They outgained the 49ers by 227 total yards in what was an awful situation for San Francisco coming off a short week win and having to play an early game on the east coast against a well-rested team. That line closed at 12 and there is no chance that the 49ers are only five points worse than Minnesota. The Vikings meanwhile are 2-0 as they defeated Tennessee on the road before winning last Sunday night at home against Green Bay. Sam Bradford was exceptional in his first start but the bigger story was the loss of Adrian Peterson who is likely out for the season. While he is tough to replace, he is not the same player and has lost a step for sure. He averaged just 1.6 ypc in 31 carries so was doing nothing special anyway. The Norv Turner/Bradford offense is arguably better off now as they can open things up more which is better equipped for this team. The defense as they have allowed just 289.5 ypg and 15 ppg, No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in the NFL. The Panthers have covered seven straight games at home which is adding to the value but the Vikings have been better, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while covering 14 of their last 17 games following a win. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the classic look at the records matchup which had affected the line. Baltimore comes in undefeated and is the worst 2-0 team in the league at this point. The Ravens defeated a hapless Bills team by only six points and then beat Cleveland last week in part due to the injury of Browns quarterback Josh McCown who was not the same after having to get checked out. They were actually outgained by the Browns and overall, the defense is overrated based on who they have played while the offense can be held accountable for the same thing. Jacksonville meanwhile is 0-2 but has played better than that. The Jaguars are tied for last in the NFL in turnover margin at -3 which has been part of the issue but it has to be noted that they have outgained both opponents thus far albeit not by much but all that matter is they have been on the positive. So now because we have two teams with opposite records, the Ravens come in as a road favorite. It is interesting to note that last November, with a healthy Joe Flacco, Baltimore was favored by only five points at home and there is no way they are a much better team now. And Jacksonville won. This is a much bigger game for the Jaguars and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (468) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is another example of records dictating the line. The Redskins have dropped their first two games and while they lost to Pittsburgh by 22 points, they were outgained by just 53 total yards but two turnovers in bad spots, nine penalties and having to settle for field goals did them in. Last week, they had a chance to beat the Cowboys but fell just short despite outgaining Dallas by 52 total yards. The rushing defense has been the issue but the Giants do not possess a strong running attack like the ones they have already faced. New York is 2-0 but it is an ugly 2-0 as it has won both games by a combined four points. The Giants did outgain New Orleans by 129 yards but were unable to complete drives against a bad Saints defense and their only touchdown came via a blocked field goal return. Now because of the opposing records, the Giants are overvalued as with this being a divisional game against pretty equal teams, the line should be -3 so catching anything above that presents solid value. The Giants defense is a very solid unit but the Redskins have the playmakers to take advantage. Washington can ill afford to fall three games out of first place in the NFC East after just three games so we will see an all-out effort on both sides of the ball. 10* (471) Washington Redskins

Two of the five undefeated teams in the AFC square off and we will be backing the home team missing its top two quarterbacks. We played on New England opening week at Arizona and mentioned a big reason for playing the Patriots was head coach Bill Belichick and that reason is even bigger in this one. Rookie Jacoby Brissett will be making his first ever start and while that normally would be a play against spot depending on the situation, Belichick is not going to be throwing him into the fire and make him win a game by himself. Brissett went 6-9 for 92 yards against Miami and while his experience is minimal, the preparation time for the Texans to go against him is even worse considering they have little to no game film on him. Houston has cruised in both of its wins but both of those took place at home, one again what seems to be another lousy Chicago team and the other against a Kansas City team it was seeking revenge from after a 30-0 defeat in the playoffs last season. The Houston defense has done its job, but again, that has all taken place at home and the offense has struggled by averaging only 347.5 ypg which is just No. 19 in the NFL. This marks only the fifth game since the start of the 2002 season that the Patriots are home underdogs and this is where New England will be even more motivated because of that. The Patriots fall into a situation where we play on home teams coming off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) New England Patriots

This line opened at -2.5, got pushed up to -3.5 midweek and has settled back down to -3 which is right where it should be in a game that can go either way. We are getting value with the total however after both teams went under the number is their season opening games. The glaring comparison is with Chicago in that this total is lower than last week against Houston, one of the top ranked defenses in the NFL. This is a matchup where both quarterbacks could have massive games. Carson Wentz threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut, completing 22 of 37 passes in a turnover-free performance, posting a 101.0 rating. Jay Cutler meanwhile was 16-29 for just 216 yards and a touchdown and one pick but as mentioned, he was facing a very strong defense and it takes a step down tonight. As a team, the Eagles held Cleveland to under 300 total yards of offense last week as they dominated the time of possession with nearly 40 minutes on their side. But Cleveland is Cleveland and yesterday the Browns managed 387 yards but 85 of those came on one play. Philadelphia will be without top cornerback Leodis McKelvin. On the other side, the Bears were pretty average against the Texans as Brock Osweiler completed 63 percent of his passes while allowing Lamar Miller to rush for over 100 yards. One of their biggest failings against Houston was the Bears failed to make Osweiler uncomfortable in the pocket and the Texans offensive line is much worse than the line of the Eagles so they will have trouble again. 10* Over (289) Philadelphia Eagles/(290) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Colts lost a shootout at home against the Lions, spoiling the return of Andrew Luck who ended up missing nine games last season. The loss had nothing to do with him however as he was awesome, throwing for 385 yards and four touchdowns with a 66 percent completion rate. His last game a year ago happened to come against Denver, a 27-24 win at home. The defense was obviously the issue as Matthew Stafford went off as well but the Colts should not have to worry as much this week about getting lit up. We won with the Broncos last Thursday and while they have a big scheduling advantage here because of time off and no travel, the Broncos are severely overpriced in this matchup. The defense is arguably the best in the NFL but the Indianapolis offense presents a bunch of challenges and it put up 365 yards in the meeting last season against virtually the same defense. This offense is good enough to play catch up against even the elite defenses as long as a healthy Luck is around. Additionally, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL coming off a loss as he has gone 16-4 both straight up and against the number following a defeat. That is a very impressive record and as one of the biggest game preparers, it makes sense. The Colts are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (281) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The first game since returning to Los Angeles was not a good one for the Rams as they got embarrassed by the 49ers 28-0. The offense was pathetic with just 185 total yards as Case Keenum was inconsistent at quarterback and Todd Gurley could get nothing going on the ground. Because of the horrible display, they are catching a huge number in their first home game in Los Angeles in 20 years. Teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game like we saw on Thursday with the Bills that showed some offensive life but it was their defense that let them down. The Rams actually have a solid defense and they will come to play on Sunday. Seattle escaped with a win over Miami as it scored the go ahead touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining and avoided a season opening loss for the second straight season. They also avoided a serious injury as Russell Wilson went down with an ankle injury that looked worse than it was but he is still not going to be playing at a 100 percent level this week. The Rams play the Seahawks tough the majority of the time as they have won four of the last eight meetings while two of the four losses were by a touchdown or less. They have won three of the last four at home with the lone defeat being by just five points and the home edge Sunday should be even that much better. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The schedulemakers did Miami no favors by putting them on the road the first two weeks of the season at Seattle and at New England. They played excellent last week against the Seahawks and really should have won the game despite getting outgained by 138 total yards. Nonetheless, Miami catches a depleted New England roster so it can be argued they actually caught a break getting the Patriots this early in this spot. New England picked up the upset win at Arizona last Sunday night as head coach Bill Belichick put together a masterful plan and you give him extra time to formulate a gameplan and the other team is in for a long day. The Patriots return home for the first of three straight games at Gillette Stadium so they definitely caught a break with the schedule by having three of the four games that Tom Brady is missing taking place at home. New England has dominated this series at with four straight victories by double-digits but you know who was the quarterback for the Patriots in all four of those games. Jimmy Garoppolo had a very strong showing in his first NFL start but again, the gameplan and the fact that no one had even seen him in an NFL regular season game was a big advantage and now Miami has the luxury of watching game film. Here we play on underdogs or pickems that has a winning percentage between .250 and .400 last season, in conference games. This situation is 65-30 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Miami Dolphins