Sports Picks & Predictions

8* NFL TOP MNF Play in December *9-1 Run* Carolina picked up a big win last week in Green Bay to set up this showdown for first place in the NFC South. The Panthers were sleepwalking prior to that game against the Packers even though they had win four of their previous five games. The last two games played were on the road while they have had just one home game since October so this is a very welcomed trip home. Carolina is not only playing for first place but also for some revenge after getting trounced in Tampa Bay by 24 points.

The Buccaneers have won four straight games and that is what is keeping this number nice and low for us. Those wins were far from dominating especially the ones on the road against Kansas City and Detroit. It took a monumental comeback against the Chiefs and a monumental collapse from the Lions. The Buccaneers are a much better team at home than on the road as is the case with most of the division. Teams from the South are 23-2 on the season.

One thing that cannot be overlooked from Tampa Bay and something that is going to likely give it an early exit in the playoffs is its success in the redzone. The Buccaneers are scoring touchdowns on only 34 percent of their trips into the redzone which is 2nd worse in the NFL, ahead of only the Rams. They have just 16 touchdowns and they will be facing a defense that is allowing opponents to score touchdowns 47.1 percent of the time which is 6th best in the NFL.

As mentioned, this is a revenge game for the Panthers and they fall into a great revenge situation. Play on any team that is revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two teams that have won between 60 and 75 percent of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Carolina has done a great job when it comes to revenge as it is 19-8 ATS revenging a same season loss since 1992.

The win over Green Bay last week was big for this matchup as mentioned while it also provided some great momentum. That momentum is big and it is part of another great situation favoring the Panthers. Play on home teams that are coming off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two teams that have won 75 percent or more of their games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. The Panthers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 30 points or more last time out. 8* Carolina Panthers

7* Marquee Game Play of the Day *DAL-PIT* This is a really good spot for Dallas even though it is a non-divisional game with a game at home against the Giants next week. The Cowboys cruised on Thanksgiving against the Seahawks so not only was that not a hard fought game to recover from but they have had an extra three days to get ready for this one. This is far from a must win game but a loss here puts Dallas in a possible tie with Atlanta and Washington for the second wild card spot if both win since the loser of Carolina and Tampa Bay will still have the first spot.

Pittsburgh has been winning and remains in first place in the AFC North, a game ahead of Baltimore. Two of the last three wins have been pretty ugly as the Steelers escaped against San Diego and got a gift-wrapped win over New England last week in a game that was not as dominant as the final score indicates. The Steelers will not be overlooking Dallas but in the back burner is a game at Baltimore next week. No matter what happens against Dallas, a win over the Ravens likely locks up the division due to a season sweep.

The Cowboys have won their last three games and it is no coincidence that it is the same time Tony Romo has returned to lead the offense. Dallas looked rusty on offense in the first game against the Redskins but it piled on 408 yards against the 49ers and 447 yards against the Seahawks. It is safe to say that the offense is back in gear and it could not come at a better time than having to face the Steelers, the best defense in the NFL and the Giants, the 3rd best defense in the league.

While the Steelers defense remains the strength, the offense is not performing well at all. Despite 33 points against the Patriots, the offense generated only 333 total yards and prior to that it was fortunate to face the Bengals and Chargers, two below average defenses. Dallas is a strong unit as it is ranked 9th in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 296.8 ypg. That average drops even more in road games. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 40 while Pittsburgh is 27th in sacks allowed with 36.

This recent Cowboys team has fared well the last two seasons after Thanksgiving as they have won both games. This is a great line for Dallas as it is 7-0 ATS over the last two seasons when the line is +3 to -3 and it has won those games by an average of 13.1 ppg. The Steelers meanwhile are 1-10 ATS over the last three seasons after scoring 30 points or more. That includes a 2-0 mark this season including a home loss to the Giants after putting up 38 points against the Bengals. 7* Dallas Cowboys

8* 86% AFC Game of the Month *16-8-1 Run* Denver has to be the most schizophrenic team in the NFL this season. The Broncos go on the road and defeat the Falcons, come home and get blown out by the Raiders and then hit the road again and take out the Jets in a rout. They have been better on the road this year with a 4-3 record and their 3-3 home mark makes no sense. The losses have come against Oakland, Jacksonville and Miami with the Dolphins being the only winning team. The three wins have come by a combined six points.

The Chiefs won their second game of the season in Oakland last week and I do not believe the travel will be a big factor here. The win was big to inspire some confidence and playing another divisional game will only add to that. The victory snapped a seven-game slide which was not a very bad streak at all as four of those games could have been won and were not decided until the final quarter. This team faces no pressure and with nothing to lose, it will go all out to win in Denver for the first time in eight years.

While the Chiefs offense was held in check in the early part of the season, they have come alive in recent games. They averaged 12.5 ppg through their first six games but have averaged 23.5 ppg over their last six games and three of those came against some pretty respectable defenses. The play of quarterback Tyler Thigpen has been the main reason for the increased output as he has completely turned things around. He has 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions over his last six games.

He now faces a Denver defense that has been lit up all season. The Broncos are 28th in the NFL in total defense and 29th in scoring defense, allowing 26.6 ppg. They gave up just 17 points to the Jets last week but that was more due to the weather conditions playing a bigger factor than the actual play of the defense. They were outrushed yet again as the rushing defense continues to struggle, allowing 144.3 ypg on 4.9 ypc. Kansas City torched them for 213 yards in the first meeting.

Kansas City has had a horribly inconsistent season and the lines are going the way which gives value and it falls into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road teams after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and have won 25 percent or less of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -1.4 ppg on spreads that average +8.8 ppg. A second straight win would not be surprising in the least bit. 8* Kansas City Chiefs

7* 80% NFC Game of the Week *16-8-1 Run* The Lions embarrassed themselves on Thanksgiving so why not go after them here. Detroit has obviously yet to win this season but prior to that game against Tennessee, it was playing pretty well at least as far as a winless team can play. It started against Minnesota in a two-point loss and ended with a blown 17-0 lead against Tampa Bay. In between those games were losses by seven, eight, four and nine points and it was feasible any one of those games could have been won.

Minnesota enters this game off a huge Sunday win over the Bears and then a trip to Arizona next week is up next. This is a divisional game so it means more but how much can the Vikings really be up for this game? Minnesota is playing very well right now and has a one-game lead over Chicago in the NFC North so it obviously does not want to slip up here. The line is definitely taking this into consideration and no matter if the

**7** AFC GOW *8-1 NFL Primetime Run* Neither Jacksonville nor Houston will be in the playoffs this season after both came in with legitimate playoff hopes. This game therefore will be won by the team that wants it more and judging by the way the teams have been playing recently, that edge goes to Houston. This is the first ever Monday night game in Houston and it is a pretty big deal. Cleveland hosted a Monday night game for the first time in a long while against the Giants and easily won while last year, the Bills defeated Dallas in a similar scenario.

Jacksonville started the season and while it tried to recover, it just couldn

Minnesota got a much needed win last week in Jacksonville as it remains tied with Chicago for first place in the NFC North. A win here would put Minnesota in great position as it would go a game up and likely mean a 4-4 division record as the lone North game left is against Detroit. The Vikings have quietly gone 5-2 in their last seven games and since dropping a heartbreaker against the Colts in their home opener, they have gone 4-0 at home. They also have some payback to take care of tonight.

The Bears coasted against the Rams last week but over the last four week, who hasn

**10** One and Only NFL Game of the Year The Chargers are coming off yet another tough setback this weekend, this time against the Colts. San Diego could have closed within a game of the Broncos with five left by winning. If there is any good in this, it is the fact that the Chargers are still alive in the AFC West thanks to Denver losing. A Broncos win over the Raiders would have likely nailed the coffin but San Diego has air left. Quarterback Philip Rivers summed it up perfectly,

**7** NFC Game of the Week BLOWOUT Smash Green Bay was absolutely demolished on Monday night football against the Saints and now it is time to save face. The Packers fell to below .500 once again and now trail both the Vikings and Bears by one game in the NFC North. A loss here means it will be two games since those two aforementioned teams square off this week. I consider Green Bay to be much better than its record indicates. Green Bay and San Diego are the only two teams with a losing record that is actually plus in scoring margin.

Carolina is sitting a solid 8-3 and tied with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South. The Panthers are not playing like a first place team however. Ever since a blowout over New Orleans, Carolina has not looked the same as it snuck by Arizona in a game it should have lost, looked horrible in Oakland, won by just nine points against the winless Lions at home and were taken behind the woodshed in Atlanta last week. Not only are the Panthers playing bad but they have a home date with the Buccaneers next Monday for 1st place.

The Packers secondary was torched by Drew Brees on Monday but don

**7** 100% NFL Total of the Week (6-0 YTD) Fans and players of the

**7** Late Afternoon 83% TOP PLAY Crusher What has happened to the Redskins? Well, for starters, the offense has slowed down considerably as it has scored 17 points or fewer in four of its last five games and thus winning only one of those four low output games. The last two came against Pittsburgh and Dallas, two solid stop units so that has been the issue of late. There was no excuse for bad games against Cleveland and St. Louis. And those two games should provide motivation here as should the fact that a loss all but ends a playoff run.

Seattle got quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back last week and what did it do? Absolutely nothing as the Seahawks were destroyed by Arizona in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates. The Seahawks were outgained by 262 total yards, the seventh straight game they have been outgained. Seattle has been outgained in all but one game this season and that is likely going to continue. Even though Hasselbeck has had a game to shake some rust off, it won

**9** NFL Non-Conference BLOWOUT Top Play Minnesota is in a really good spot this week. Despite coming off a loss at Tampa Bay, the Vikings head out on the road again but this time faces an opponent that is completely down. They were beat up pretty good against Tampa bay and now they get to beat up on an opponent that has been down for most of the season. That loss dropped Minnesota into a tie with both Green Bay and Chicago in the NFC North so every game at this point is huge. It is even bigger with Chicago on deck next week.

I really believed that Jacksonville would be the team to defeat the Titans and while it looked that way for a half, the Jaguars folded in the second half and allowed Tennessee to keep its undefeated season alive. The Jaguars season basically ended last week and while the playoffs are still a mathematical possibility, this team just does not what it takes to get there at this point. Last Sunday was a playoff game for Jacksonville and it will find it next to impossible to get up against this week.

We all know Minnesota relies on Adrian Peterson and the running game to move the ball on offense. Peterson rushed for 85 yards last week which was just the first time in his last five games that he failed to crack the century mark. That came against the 1oth ranked rushing defense. This week he faces Jacksonville that is 20th in rushing defense after finishing 11th last season and 3rd in 2006 so you can see how it has fallen. Overall, the Jaguars are 28th in overall defense.

Offensively, things have been worse for Jacksonville as it is 23rd in the league in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense. Recently, it has gone the wrong way as the Jaguars have scored 19 points or fewer in three of their last four games with that one exception coming against Detroit who is 31st in the league in total defense. Minnesota is 10th in total defense including 2nd in rushing defense. The Jaguars need to get the running game going as quarterback David Garrard is having a horrible season, ranked 18th in passer rating.

Surprisingly, the public is all over the Jaguars but that is ok on this end considering the public has won the last two weeks and is about to be in for a rude awakening. The Vikings fall into a great situation. Play on road underdogs or pick in a game involving two teams that are +3 to -3 in ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Vikings keep pace with a big win in Jacksonville. 9* Minnesota Vikings

**7** AFC Game of the Week - 33-5 (86.8%) The winner of this game will remain a game behind the Jets in the AFC East while the loser will be on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I will take Bill Belichick every time in this scenario. Not only does this make New England a strong play but add to the fact that the Dolphins embarrassed the Patriots at home back in September by 25 points and we have a great revenge spot for a coach who loves the payback aspect. If that isn

**7** Thurs. NFL Primetime TOP PLAY 4-0 L4 The biggest story out of Pittsburgh last week wasn

**7** MNF TOP PLAY Side - 3-0 L3 Primetime What started like a pretty good shot for the Bills to make the playoffs has completely turned around. Buffalo has dropped three straight games, all against division opponents and now the pressure is on to keep pace in the division as it trails the Jets by a game and a half. An easy schedule early in the season helped Buffalo jump out to a hot start but now that the competition has stiffened, it is showing the Bills may not be playoff ready just yet. An easy win tonight is actually not as easy as it looks.

Cleveland had some controversy this week with Jamal Lewis and Joshua Cribbs calling some players out for quitting on Thursday night against the Broncos. I think it actually is a good motivator for the Browns. The players that were called out are going to go out and prove in fact that there was no quitting on their part and that will actually inspire everyone to play hard. This team needed a spark and with quarterback Brady Quinn coming in to start along with this recent talk, this could do nothing but good.

The Cleveland defense has been a problem all season long but it is not going to see an elite opponent tonight. The Bills are 24th in the NFL in total offense and Trent Edwards is starting to have a tough time of it. He has not had the luxury of a running game as the Bills are ranked 28th in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging only 90 ypg on 3.6 ypc. Marshawn Lynch has struggled as he has not rushed for more than 83 yards in any game this season. The Bills are 25th in scoring touchdowns in the red zone at 46.2 percent.

Quinn looked very good in his first start against the Broncos and he should be able to keep it rolling here. Buffalo has been terrible in generating pass rush as it has only 14 sacks on the season, which is tied for 28th in the league, and the Browns have allowed only 11 sacks which is tied for 5th, so Quinn should have the opportunity to look downfield into a Bills secondary that is still nicked by injuries. Safety Donte Whitner is the big blow as he will be limited to nickel packages.

Buffalo

**8** 100% NFL Total of the Month 5-0 YTD I was almost on the Saints/Falcons over last week but the Atlanta defense held me off as it has been playing really well of late. The Saints tore through that unit for 521 total yards and now goes up against a defense that is not even close to the Falcons. New Orleans continues to lead the league in total offense as it is averaging 416.2 ypg, the only team in the NFL average more than 400 ypg. The Saints managed only 20 points against Atlanta as turnover did them in.

The Chiefs are ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense as it is allowing 406.2 ypg, one of only two teams allowing more than 400 yards with Detroit being the other. They are allowing 27 ppg on the year and have allowed 30 points or more in four of the last seven games. They have been outgained in all nine games so the defense is the obvious reason they are sitting on only one victory. That defense is even worse at home as Kansas City allows 419.8 ypg at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs offense is making some huge strides and that is due to the maturation of quarterback Tyler Thigpen. For the season, Kansas City is averaging only 288.6 ypg but over the last three games it has put up an average of 351 ypg. Thigpen could not get out of his own shadow before but he has numbers are a solid 66-102 for 710 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions over that three-game stretch. His passer rating has gone up to 73.7 after being in the 50

**7** 80% NFC Game of the Week CRUSHER I really like this spot for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers trail Carolina by a game in the NFC South so it is essential to keep pace with this game and a game at Detroit on deck before back-to-back division games against the Panthers and Saints right after. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye with a good shot of momentum following that come-from-behind win over the Chiefs although I

**7** Non-Conference BLOWOUT of the Week The Eagles suffered a tough blow last week at home against the Giants. A win there and this would not even be thought of as a play but that loss has put some urgency into this team. This is the last winnable road game of the year as Baltimore, New York and Washington are left and none of those are close to being easy. Philadelphia is a game back in the Wild Card race and with five other teams either ahead or with the same record, laying an egg here will just about end it.

Speaking of ending it, that is what the Bengals did to their eight-game losing streak in their last game before the bye week. Now that the win is out of the way, it is time to get back to what they do best and that is stinking up the joint. The bye week came at the wrong time for the Bengals as any sort of confidence it got from that victory was lost. It was just the third time all season that Cincinnati scored at least 21 points which is incredible considering it had the 4th most points scored in the AFC last year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has a passer rating of 66.6 which is next to last in the NFL for those who qualify, which is attempting at least 112 passes. The fact that he is behind JaMarcus Russell, J.T. O

**7** NFL Total of the Week - 4-0 100% YTD The Cardinals can virtually lock up the NFC West title with a victory tonight. A win puts them at 6-3 with the rest of the division sitting at a horrific 2-7. Because of the mediocre competition within the division, the Cardinals record may seem skewed but they have played only two division games thus far, winning on the road at San Francisco and St. Louis. While a win seems likely, the spread is not in our favor but the matchup for a lot of points are on our side.

Arizona has the 3rd ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 386.9 ypg. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to put Kurt Warner in as the starting quarterback and it has paid off. Entering Week 10, he had the second-most passing yards to the Saints' Drew Brees, the second-best passer rating of 104.2 to the Chargers' Philip Rivers and the best completion percentage in the league. Arizona is averaging 29.2 ppg which is the most in the NFL and there is no reason for it to slow up here.

San Francisco is going to have a tough time stopping this unit. The 49ers have allowed 29 or more points in six of their last seven games including five straight where the defense has averaged 32.5 ppg. Includes in that bunch were games against Seattle and New England, currently ranked 27th and 24th respectively in total offense so San Francisco is allowing points to even the below average offensive teams. Overall, the 49ers are 20th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, allowing 28.8 ppg.

Arizona could get to this number on its own but we certainly cannot count on that. The Cardinals defense s 12th in the NFL, allowing 308.3 ypg which is certainly solid. They are 19th in scoring defense however, allowing 23 ppg. Granted, a lot of that came in one shot against the Jets but they have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last six games so it is not isolated to just that one contest. This is far from a dominant defense and we will see that on Monday.

The 49ers have made a chance at quarterback as Shaun Hill will be taking over for J.T. O

**9** 81.6% Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT** Seattle is an absolute mess right now. It hung with Philadelphia for part of the game last Sunday before getting ripped for 26 unanswered points in the final three quarters. The Seahawks somehow snuck out a win in San Francisco prior to that but that was due to the 49ers being in shambles with a coaching change. Still, San Francisco outgained the Seahawks by 127 yards and they have been outgained in five straight games by an average of 202.2 ypg. That is absolutely horrendous.

Miami meanwhile is coming off a big road win at Denver last Sunday and remains right in the thick of the AFC East race. The Dolphins trail three teams in front by just a game and this is the first of three straight home games so it wants, and needs, to start this homestand strong. They are 2-2 at home but are outgaining opponents by over 50 ypg and only the game against the Jets saw them get outgained which was by only 16 yards. This team, could feasibly 8-1 or 7-2 with a couple bounces their way.

Already among the league leaders in passer ratings, yards and completion percentage, Miami quarterback Chad Pennington will have time to pick and choose his receivers. He won

**7** Thursday NFL Dominator TOP PLAY** This is a great spot for Cleveland. The Browns blew a two-touchdown lead last week against the Ravens and it was due to the incompetence of Derek Anderson at quarterback. Anderson is gone and in comes Brady Quinn. Anderson finished his starting quarterback resume with a dreadful passer rating of 68.9 which is currently 31st in the NFL. Quinn has thrown only eight passes in his NFL career but things cannot get any worse. The best part is his opening assignment comes against a horrendous defense.

I was all over the Broncos last Sunday against Miami and they could get nothing done. They were only outgained by 22 total yards but the disturbing part was that they rushed for only 14 yards on 12 carries. Miami won the first down battle 21-14 and controlled over 13 more minutes of the clock. It is apparent that quarterback Jay Cutler is still bothered by his bad finger and making matters worse is that he has no running game. Both Andre Hall and Michael Pittman are out and Ryan Torain is the only healthy back.

The Broncos are 26th against the pass and are without the injured Champ Bailey, one of the league's premier cornerbacks. Chad Pennington did not have a great game last week but he still threw for 281 yards so there is a good possibility that Quinn not only plays well but has a pretty big game. Receiver Donte Stallworth was limited in practice this week but said he's hopeful he can play after missing the Ravens game. He along with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow will cause big problems for the Broncos.

This is as close to a must win for the Browns as there is and making the quarterback change came at a perfect time. Some will argue that doing it on a short week is wrong but this team needed a spark and this will provide it. The energy in the stadium tonight will be incredible, similar to the way it was when the Browns welcomed the Giants and tore them apart. This game sets up very similar as Cleveland was in a must win situation then as well.

Cleveland falls into a very solid yet simple situation tonight. Play on favorites (that are coming off a home loss in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +8.8 ppg. Denver is a miserable 1-10 ATS after playing a game at home over the last two seasons while Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Browns take care of business in a national spotlight once again. 7* Cleveland Browns

**7** NFL Total of the Week (100% YTD)** It is Monday night and so far this season, the over has been the ticket with seven of the eight games surpassing the number with one push in the mix as well. The public not only likes overs to begin with but on Monday night when even more of the public is wagering, more over action is coming in. Now when a trend like this comes into play, we will see even more over action. This number has dropped from an opening of 38 but that is due to early sharp action and not public action.

We have two of the best defenses squaring off tonight as the Steelers are currently 1st in the NFL in total defense, allowing 236 ypg while the Redskins check in at 4th, allowing 278.1 ypg. The two combined to allow an average of just over 33 ppg and neither team is going to yield a whole lot. After allowing 24 points two times in their first four games, the Redskins have allowed 16 ppg over their last four games. Pittsburgh meanwhile has not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season.

The Washington offense has been surprisingly strong as it is 7th in the league in total offense, averaging 364.3 ypg. The problem has been that scoring points has not come easy as the Redskins are averaging 20.6 ppg which is 24th in the NFL. They have a 17.66 YPPT (yard per point) ratio which is the third highest in the league. As a comparison, the other four teams in the top five are Oakland, Kansas City, Cincinnati and St. Louis. They are 29th, 26th, 32nd and 30th in total offense so the Washington ranking of 6th is flawed.

The Steelers are 25th in total offense as they have not been able to get any sort of consistency together. They put up solid point totals against the Bengals and Texans, scoring 38 points in each of those games, but those two defenses are not strong at all. Pittsburgh has faced four teams in the top ten in the league in total defense and it has averaged 14.8 ppg in those games in regulation, not counting the three points scored in overtime against the Ravens. This offensive line is a mess and it will show again tonight. 7* Under Pittsburgh Steelers/Washington Redskins

**7** NFL False Chalk Game of the Week** Atlanta played well at Philadelphia last week but still lost and is now a road favorite for some reason. The Falcons are 1-3 on the road and that one victory over the Packers never should have been a win. Atlanta has outgained all three opponents at home but has been outgained by all four opponents on the road. Overall, the Falcons are getting outgained by close to 87 ypg on the road while getting outscored by 10 ppg. After being dogs by an average of 6.8 per game in the four roadies, Atlanta has no business being the favorite.

Oakland has been inconsistent this season but heading home is a plus. The Raiders were thumped pretty badly in Baltimore last weekend but the game was closer than the score indicates as they were simply on the wrong side of every call and every bad bounce. They were able to beat the Jets in overtime in their last home game and it their other home game before that against San Diego, they actually outgained the Chargers. Look for things to turn around here.

The offense will look to grind it out on the ground against the Falcons and they should have success in doing so. The Falcons are 23rd in rushing defense, allowing 128.6 ypg and they are allowing a very high 4.7 ypc which is tied for 26th in the league. Getting the running game going will be huge to ease some of the pressure off of quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Helping the Raiders is the fact that defensive end Jamaal Anderson may sit this one out and that is a big blow to that defense.

Greg Knapp, Oakland's offensive coordinator, coached in Atlanta two years ago so he knows some of the ins and outs of some of the current players. On the other side, the Falcons rushing game, which is 3rd in the NFL, took a hit on the offensive line as left tackle Sam Baker, who suffered a hip injury will not make the trip to Oakland. Take away games against Kansas City and Detroit who are ranked 31st and 32nd in total defense respectively and the Falcons are averaging just 16.2 ppg in the other five games.

The rushing game has definitely fallen off for the Falcons and that sets up a situation favoring the Raiders. Play against favorites after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent that was outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) since 1983.The Falcons are just 2-5 over their last seven road games. While it is tough for teams from the west to play in the east, it is almost as difficult the opposite way and the Falcons will show that here. 7* Oakland Raiders

**9** AFC Blowout TOP PLAY (75% YTD)** The Broncos enter this game off a bye and after a disaster of a game at Denver two Monday

**8** Non-Conference Game of the Month** Tampa Bay is coming off a huge disappointing game at Dallas and it now trails Carolina by a half-game in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have a bye after this week and that sets them up in a great spot here as explained in the last segment of this report. Tampa Bay has followed up both previous losses with easy wins in its following game and even though those games came at home, there won

**7** MNF TOP PLAY Total - 8-1 (89%) YTD** The value this week is on the total. Tennessee is undefeated but the combined record of its first six opponents is 12-26 and its schedule is ranked 30th in the NFL. The defense is near the top of the league but they have faced offenses with an average ranking of 21st. The Colts are 20th in total offense but the capability for an outburst is there as we saw two weeks prior to last Sunday. Let

**7** NFL Underdog Game of the Week** This is one of those classic ugly picks but usually the ugly ones are the ones that work out in our favor. The Bengals are still searching for their first win of the season and this could finally be when it happens. The line is absurd to begin with as there is no way the Bengals should be catching this many points against the Texans. This is the same amount of points it was getting against the Jets two weeks ago and even though Cincinnati did not cover that game, the Jets and Texans cannot be compared.

Houston has won two straight after starting the season 0-4 and it should be 3-3 if not for that debacle against the Colts three weeks back. The Texans are not the type of team that is going to blow anyone out and we witnessed it last when it allowed the Lions to make the game respectable. The Texans were giving 11 points to the Lions last Sunday and failed to cover that number so asking them to cover a number nearly as big against a significantly better team is asking a lot.

The reason I say significantly better is based on the teams that the Bengals have faced. They have played the toughest schedule in the league and have faced only one team with a losing record and that is the 2-4 Browns. The seven teams they faced are a combined 28-15 and the results have not been too bad. Four of those losses have come by single digits and they were knocking on the door late in two others to bring those results into single digits. The Power ratings have the Bengals only three points worse than Houston.

Cincinnati is not the same team without Carson Palmer at quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown struggles at times but he has improved all three games with his passer rating improving from 44.5 to 71.8 to 81.1. He is getting more comfortable in the offense and the fact that he has completed at least 60 percent of his passes in all three games is pretty impressive. Houston is 22nd in the NFL in total defense and while Cincinnati has allowed 26 sacks, it won

**9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.

New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.

The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won

**9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.

New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.

The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won

**7** NFC Game of the Week BLOWOUT Smash** Atlanta and Philadelphia are both coming off bye weeks and that helps the Eagles and hurts the Falcons. Atlanta had that improbable win over the Bears two weeks ago and the time off completely killed its momentum. At 4-2, the Falcons are one of the bigger surprises in the league but playing a relatively soft schedule has helped that out. Atlanta has outgained all three opponents at home but has been outgained by all three opponents on the road.

The Eagles benefited from the bye week to get healthy, namely Brian Westbrook who will be playing healthy for the first time since Week Two against Dallas. Quarterback Donovan McNabb will have all of his wide receivers Sunday for the first time this season as Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are both healthy as well. Philadelphia is a disappointing 3-3 and with a game at Seattle on deck, it needs to be 5-3 heading into the big showdown with the Giants in two weeks.

The Falcons can put a lot of their success on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. He had a great game against the Bears but Chicago was without both starting corners in that game. Ryan has struggled against the top defenses as he has faced Tampa Bay and Carolina, ranked 9th and 5th respectively in total defense. Those are the only teams ranked in the top ten in total defense and the Falcons came away with just 18 points. The Eagles are 7th in total defense so he will be in for another long afternoon.

Meanwhile, Atlanta comes in 25th in the league in total defense and even this ranking is skewed. The Falcons have gone against only one offense that is ranked top ten in the league and has faced Detroit and Kansas City who are 27th and 28th in total offense. The Eagles are 10th in total offense and that is impressive considering Westbrook has been healthy for only 11 of the team

**9** Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT (3-0 TY)** I do not like being on the same side with the public, especially what will probably be the biggest public play of the day, but sometimes you got to do it. If Indianapolis had not won last week over Baltimore, it would still be getting tons of action because the Colts are a public team all the time no matter how good or bad they may be playing. Now is the time to jump as even though they may be on the public radar, they are not undefeated at this point like they have been the last three years we actually get some value.

Green Bay picked up a big win last week in Seattle. I unfortunately was on the wrong side of that as Matt Hasselbeck was unable to go. Because of that, the Packers win becomes a lot less impressive as it came against a Charlie Frye team that simply had no answers on offense. The good news is that the Packers are going back home. The bad news is that they have lost two straight games there and now face a team peaking for the first time this season.

Going back to being on the wrong side, I was on the wrong side of that Indianapolis win over Houston two weeks ago after the Colts scored 21 points in less than four minutes. It was a huge implosion for the Texas but it also gave enormous confidence to the Colts who carries that over into last week against Baltimore and completely dismantled the Ravens although the stats don

**7** NFC Game of the Week BLOWOUT (80.8%)** New York was in a bad spot on Monday against the Browns and we took advantage. Now, we definitely get some line value with the Giants here based on their Monday Night loss and they are in a very good spot even with the big line. It probably isn

**7** Anti-Public Home Team Dominator** Buffalo was hoping to into its bye with a 5-0 record but it lost in Arizona two weeks ago no thanks to quarterback Trent Edwards missing most of that game with a concussion. The Bills are now back home to face its third opponent from the West Coast as they have already defeated the Seahawks and Raiders. Buffalo is all alone in first place in the AFC East and with three division games coming up, this would normally be a tough spot. However, it is the Chargers and the Bills want to get that momentum back in their corner.

After spending the first month of the season on the left side of the country, the Chargers have been moving around a lot lately. They traveled to Miami two weeks ago, came back home to play New England and now are back on the East Coast. Making matters worse, they have to head to London to play the Saints next week. They are coming off a huge win over the Patriots which was a game they gave an all out effort for and one that they wanted and needed desperately.

San Diego is currently 3-3 and it easily could be 5-1 right now if not for the opening last second loss against the Panthers and then the blown call in Denver the following week. However, it is pretty apparent that this team is not the same dominant team from the last few years and the numbers prove that. The Chargers are 12th in total offense but just 21st in rushing offense, averaging just 98.5 ypg. LaDanian Tomlinson is not even close to 100 percent with his toe injury as he is averaging a mere 67.5 ypg and 3.7 ypc.

Buffalo will not help that much as it has been doing a decent job in stopping the run, allowing 114.2 ypg and 4.1 ypc. Philip Rivers had a field day against New England last Sunday but that came against a putrid secondary. Buffalo is 8th in the league in passing defense. The Bills will be able to run the ball as the Chargers are allowing 4.4 ypc. Overall, San Diego is 28th in the NFL in total defense, allowing over 45.4 ypg more than it did last season and 64.1 ypg more than in 2006.

San Diego heads east again and falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the Chargers, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Bills. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 14-59 ATS (19.2 percent) since 2000. This system is 7-1 ATS this season with Buffalo already on the winning side of this system in Week One and the Chargers losing two weeks ago. 7* Buffalo Bills

**89% **2.5** MNF Giants/Browns TOP PLAY** This line is getting to the point of absurd. The Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions and they are off to a 4-0 start this season but laying this many points on the points on the road is asking a lot. They are coming off a big win at home over the Seahawks which was the second straight home win following a bye week meaning this is the first road game in one month. The lone road win this season was a victory over the Rams which wasn

**79.3% **5** AFC Blowout (2-0 ATS YTD)** Things change pretty rapidly from week to week in the NFL and when the public sees one thing one week, they tend to carry that forward into the next week. That is the case in this game and what the public saw was not true and thus they are backing a false perception. The public saw San Diego lose badly at Miami last Sunday and at 2-3, the Chargers are apparently not a good team .That is far from the truth. Playing an early game on the east coast does that to teams.

The public also saw the Patriots win in San Francisco last Sunday. It was one of the best defensive games of the season for New England but the 49ers had a lot to do with that as play calling was absolutely horrendous. Even with the win, New England is a shell of a team from last season. The three wins have come against very mediocre teams and this is easily the biggest test of the season. So what we have Sunday night is the public thinking one team is better than it really is and one team that is worse than it really is.

Matt Cassel guided the offense pretty well for New England last weekend but he also made some mistakes that will cost him even more here. All of the talk is about how he made a great 66-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss but not much is being said about his numerous under throws or his two interceptions. His counterpart Philip Rivers is having a solid season with a 103 passer rating and he will have success against an old defense. Darren Sproles could have a monster game as well.

It is pretty safe to say that the Chargers were looking ahead to this game from a revenge standpoint. It is from last season when they lost in the playoffs and in the regular season in New England but also from the year before when the Patriots won in the playoffs on a questionable call and decided to dance at midfield to celebrate. If the Chargers can't beat the Patriots without Tom Brady, when they desperately need a win, at home, in front of a national audience, they might as well just pack it in.

Why would a team with a losing record be favored over a 3-1 team? The public is favoring the side of the Patriots and that is the way we like it. Play on favorites after covering the spread in two out of their last three games but still has a losing record and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. The Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win while San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. Play San Diego Chargers 5 Units

**78.9% **2.5** NFC Game of the Week** The Bears are coming off a road win at Detroit and while taking a team in the second ob back-to-back road games is always difficult, the matchup here is simply too strong to pass up. Chicago is a couple plays of being undefeated right now as it should have beaten both Carolina and Tampa Bay but the 3-2 record works in our favor. The Bears host Minnesota before their bye week and while this is a sandwich game between division contests, they want to go in to that Vikings game a game up and not tied.

The Falcons are coming off a nice road win against Green Bay but they were lucky to catch the Packers in a tough spot based on their quarterback situation. That win upped the record to 3-2 but it is a very soft 3-2 as the three wins have come against teams that are a combined 3-11 while the losses have come against teams a combined 7-3. Atlanta has played better at home than on the road but again, it is the schedule that has done it. This is by far the biggest test of the young season.

Atlanta has had some success against Detroit, Kansas City and Green Bay. But what do those teams have in common? None of them can stop the run as they are 30th, 31st and 27th in rushing defense and all allowing at least 5.0 ypc. The Bears meanwhile are 4th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 74.2 ypg and just 3.7 ypc which is tied for 7th best in the league. Take away the Falcons rushing offense and you take away their offensive strength and they become very pedestrian.

The Bears offense is better than was advertised at the beginning of the season. They are 12th in total offense and that is due to a rushing offense that is ranked 9th in the NFL, averaging 126.2 ypg. Matt Forte leads all rookies in rushing and he has helped give Kyle Orton opportunities to make plays through the air. Orton has a passer rating of 87.6 which is good for 15th. The Falcons defense is 23rd in the NFL including 22nd against the pass and 24th against the run as they allow 125.8 ypg and 4.6 ypc.

The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams that average 130 or more ypg on the ground so the Falcons rushing game means little here. Chicago is also 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Atlanta is 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games a home under when playing a team with a winning record that is coming off a SU/ATS win. Don

**80% **2.5** NFL Power Play of the Week** New Orleans enters this game off a short week after playing Monday night but there was no travel involved so it is a big advantage in that regard. The Saints lost that game against the Vikings after blowing a late touchdown lead so they will be pretty hungry to make up for it in this game which is already considered to be an early must win. After starting the season 1-2, New Orleans wanted to sweep this three-game homestand before facing a big divisional game next week at Carolina. Now it needs to come away with a 2-1 mark.

The Raiders are coming off a bye week and they will be playing their first game under new head coach Tom Cable. Teams tend to step things up when playing for a new coach but it will be interesting to see how Oakland shows up here. The players actually liked former coach Lane Kiffin and they played hard for him. I doubt they have tossed in the towel this early but a chance like that can have a negative effect on a team that wasn

**71.8% NFL **3** MNF Game of the Month** Minnesota heads to New Orleans in what could be considered a must win game even though we are just at the quarter pole of the season. A victory would put the Vikings at 2-3 in a mediocre division, with two games left against the Lions, two left against the division-leading Bears, and one left, at home, against the Packers. The schedule sets up nice starting here and by mid-November, the Vikings could easily be back in first place in the division where they belong.

The Saints are laying a short number at home and the public is lining up behind them. This matchup is a very bad one for New Orleans as it has had a lot of troubles against teams with a makeup like the Vikings. They have fared well against teams such as Philadelphia, Dallas, the New York Giants and Jacksonville but they've played some of their worst games against Chicago, Baltimore and Washington. Just three weeks ago the Redskins pushed the Saints around on offense and defense.

It is all about the rushing game for Minnesota as Adrian Peterson will be to focal point and even though the Saints know it

**72% **5** Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT** I

**80% **2.5** AFC Game of the Week Smash** This is not going to be a very popular pick but the NFL is hardly about popularity these days. The Chargers are 2-2 after two straight wins and they feasibly could be 4-0 right now. However, they could just as easily be 1-3 if the Raiders had done a better job of protecting the ball last week. San Diego was actually outgained by the Raiders, making it the third time in four games that is has been outgained. San Diego hosts a revenge game against New England next week so this is a tough sandwich spot.

Miami is coming off a bye week which is both good and bad. It helps in that the Dolphins were able to heal of some nagging injuries but it was bad in the regard that they lost momentum from that blowout win in New England. It would have been nice to catch the Chargers and that confidence builder but I think the bye actually helps us here. With the off week, any chance of a letdown following that division game is gone. Miami is at Houston next week so there is no chance of a lookahead either.

LaDainian Tomlinson had a good game against the Raiders last week but take away his 41-yard gallop in the closing minute and his numbers become a very average 19 for 65 for 3.4 ypc. He is averaging just 3.8 ypc on the season which is his lowest since averaging 3.6 ypc in his rookie season of 2001. The Dolphins rushing defense has been solid, allowing 90.3 ypg and 3.3 ypc, 10th and 6th in the NFL respectively. The Dolphins must keep Tomlinson in check and they have a good shot at doing so.

Miami will also try to establish the run and there is a very good chance it will be successful. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown each rush for more than four yards a clip with Brown rushing for a solid 4.7 ypc. The running game opens up the passing game for Chad Pennington who is completing close to 64 percent of his passes with just one interception and a 87.9 passer rating. The Chargers are not strong against the run, allowing 100 ypg and 4.5 ypc, 13th and 22nd respectively with the ypc average horrible.

San Diego heads east and falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the Chargers, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Dolphins. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 14-56 ATS (20 percent) since 2000. This system is 4-1 ATS this season with both Arizona and San Francisco going down last week. Play Miami Dolphins 2.5 Units

**85.2% NFL **2.5** Underdog of the Week** When the season started if someone told you in Week four that Buffalo would be favored by close to double-digits against the Rams on the road, you would think they were off their rocker. Well, that is what we have here and quite simply, it is too many points for this young team to be putting down on the road. The Bills are 3-0 and playing with great confidence but there is no way Buffalo is two touchdowns better than St. Louis on a neutral field.

While Buffalo is playing with great confidence, the Rams are at the complete opposite end right now, struggling with a 0-3 record. They were manhandled at Philadelphia, who looks like a new team this year, and then went down in Seattle, one of the toughest environments in the league. In-between was a loss at home to the Giants and that game was not at bad as the final indicates as St. Louis was tight in that game until New York broke it open at the end.

What the Rams have going for them this Sunday is one of the best situations and that is new blood at the quarterback position Marc Bulger is out and Trent Green is in. It has happened countless times in the NFL when a change like this charges up a team. If it were a rookie coming in, that would make it different but Green is a veteran and he knows how to win in this league. Bulger has shown no passion or energy when he has been out there so this change is big.

The Bills have taken things almost to the next level but they are not quite there yet. They had a great comeback again but the offense is still a work in progress. Buffalo is 13th in total offense but a disappointing 23rd in rushing offense. The last two games, the offense was forced to pass to make comebacks so that has something to do with it but Marshawn Lynch is averaging just 3.6 ypc which is 37th in the NFL among qualified backs. St. Louis is not a good defensive team but it has played some strong offenses thus far.

The horrendous St. Louis offense and the stout Buffalo defense actually sets up a great contrarian situation favoring the Rams. Play on home teams that are average 14 or fewer ppg going up against a defense that is allowing between 14 and 18 ppg on the year. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a 13-1 mark over the last five seasons. It is based on value and we are certainly getting it here as the average spread in those 27 games was -4. We are getting an extra five points. Play St. Louis Rams 2.5 Units

**79.4% **5** NFC BLOWOUT (1st *5* TY)** The 49ers are one of the early surprises with a 2-1 record which easily could be 3-0 as it outgained all three opponents. Going to Seattle and winning was a huge game but beating Detroit last week was not that big of a deal. The 49ers are in a negative spot based on points scored as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 8-28 ATS over the last five years after scoring 25 or more points in back-to-back games. The travel aspect here is also against them and that is brought up more later in the analysis.

The Saints are a couple plays away from being 3-0 as they failed to get short yardage conversions the last two weeks which ended up being very costly. The last two losses came by a combined seven points and those came on the road. New Orleans heads back home for the first of three straight home games and a stretch like that gets teams fired up as they know a 3-0 homestand is more than possible. The Saints have blown out the 49ers the last two seasons and we will see it again here.

The loss of Marques Colston was a big blow to the New Orleans offense but after a few games, it looks as though the offense is back where it needs to be. Quarterback Drew Brees was an amazing 39-48 and threw for 421 yards and a touchdown last week. Four Saints had at least 75 yards and although one of those, Jeremy Shockey, will be out this week. Reggie Bush averaged over 4.0 ypc and that is a good sign. The 49ers are 22nd in the league in rushing defense thus far.

The concern is the Saints defense as it is currently 28th in the league. A lot of that damage came in the one game against the Redskins as they allowed 454 total yards. Against the Buccaneers, they allowed 352 and against the Broncos they allowed 369 so two of the three games have been pretty decent. San Francisco is 11th in total offense so despite scoring 64 points over the last two games, the offense has not been overly potent. The strength of the defenses played thus far has skewed the number.

San Francisco heads east and falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the 49ers, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Saints. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 14-54 ATS (20.6 percent) since 2000. This system is 2-1 ATS this season with the Bills going 1-1 and Washington winning last week. Play New Orleans Saints 5 Units

**85.7% MNF **2.5** TOP PLAY Wiseguy** The initial reaction is that the public would be backing the Chargers here based on the fact that they are a desperate 0-2 team that is almost in a must win situation. It seems as though the public loves Brett Favre just a much as action is nearly right down the middle according to one offshore report. That is fine by us as this line is holding pretty steady. After opening at just over a touchdown, it jumped to as high as 10 in some places and has settled in around 8.5 now. This is huge value for a team that can match point for point.

Can one player completely change the face of a defense? That answer is a resounding yes. Shawne Merriman's absence has had a huge effect of this defense and not in a good way obviously. Without Merriman, San Diego is having trouble putting pressure on the quarterback as it has only two sacks. This has in turn derailed its pass protection as San Diego has allowed 587 passing yards which is the 2nd most yards allowed in the NFL. Brett Favre can have success since his offensive line is arguably the best in the league.

The Chargers are not doing a good job stopping the run either. They are allowing 143.5 ypg on the ground, which is 25th in the league and they are also giving it up at a clip of 5.4 ypc which is 29th in the NFL. The Jets do not have a great rushing attack but it is above average and again, that offensive line will make a difference. Thomas Jones rushed for 70 yards on 17 carries (4.2 ypc) against the Patriots who feature a much stronger front seven and he should also have good success Monday.

Offensively, San Diego has been very solid but it is a banged up unit. LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable and he is not even close to 100 percent because of his toe injury. He carried 10 times for only 26 yards against Denver and spent most of the second half on the bench. The Jets defense has been solid thus far which has been revamped with players such as Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace. They are 6th in rushing defense and 7th overall and will be the biggest challenge for the Chargers thus far.

The Jets fall into a solid situation based on the recent loss by the Chargers. Play against home favorites who are coming off one or more consecutive losses after closing out last season strong with six or more wins in last eight games in the first month of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -1.8 ppg. The philosophy is simple and this is the home team is overvalued because of what happened last season. The Jets hang around tonight. Play New York Jets 2.5 Units

**72.1% **2.5** NFL Total of the Week** This is one of those spots that Las Vegas loves to see. Two teams are coming off games where a bazillion points were scored and now face off in a nationally televised game the next week. The reason being is that the public loves overs to begin with and what they saw the prior week makes them love a high-scoring game even more. This game opened at 52 and the sharps chimed in to bring the number down. Expect this number to climb back up by game time.

The Packers scored 48 points against the hapless Lions last Sunday but it needs to be noted that the final 14 points came by the defense as two interceptions were returned for scores. Green Bay piled up 447 total yards but again, that was against Detroit and the Dallas defense it will face Sunday is much better even though it may not have shown against the Eagles on Monday night. Green Bay played a good defense against the Vikings in Week One and was held to 317 yards.

Dallas meanwhile won a shootout with the Eagles on Monday night. Again, the public saw 78 points scored in that game however, a score from each side came from other than the offense as Dallas scored on a kickoff return and Philadelphia scored on a fumble recovery in the endzone. The Cowboys tallied 380 total yards (72 on one play) while the Eagles had only 337 total yards. It was a game that the final score did not indicate what played out. This is what we love to see when making a play next time out.

The Cowboys showed how good their defense can be in the opener against the Browns. Cleveland was able to move the ball a little bit early on but never could get it going as it finished with just 205 total yards and 11 first downs. I am not comparing the Browns offense to the Packers offense but after the Cowboys finished 9th in total defense last season, you know that game against Cleveland was no fluke. Roy Williams will miss this game for Dallas and I think they are better off for it.

Dallas falls into a great under situation here. Play the under with road teams that are coming off a home win in a game involving both teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 44-17 (72.1 percent) under since 1983 with the average points scored being 38.6 ppg. This is a pretty simple philosophy. Teams that are good and that are in the playoffs are very public teams. When two public teams square off like this, the public loves taking the over and thus, we catch some good value with the number. Play Under Dallas Cowboys/Green Bay Packers 2.5 Units

**2.5** Non-Conference GOW (87.5% YTD)** The Steelers are 2-0 heading into this game and they are flying on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. The 10 points scored last week may seem like a concern but that game was played in horrendous weather conditions and they still managed decent numbers. Pick up any newspaper or read any article about this game and you cannot get past it pointing to the fact that Steelers haven

**80.3% **3** NFC Game of the Month** Washington picked up a much needed win last week over New Orleans and the way it won it should bring a lot of confidence into this week. After not being able to do anything on offense against the Giants in Week One, the Redskins showed great improvement against the Saints and it came from both the running and passing game. This game is enormous for Washington as it has back-to-back games at Philadelphia and Dallas on deck so a loss here could mean it staring 1-4 right in the face.

The Cardinals are 2-0 and while many are surprised by this start, I am not one of them. Facing the 49ers and the Dolphins in the first two weeks of the season will bring out the best in teams. Now Arizona heads to the east coast for an early game (more on that later) to face a strong opponent from arguably the best division in football. The Cardinals played in Washington last October (they were 3-3) and were getting eight points. Arizona has not five points better no has Washington gotten five points worse in just over a year.

Washington

**93.3% **2.5** NFC Game of the Week** Carolina came up with a huge win last Sunday but don

**80% Non-Conference Game of the Month** There is a lot of optimism in Buffalo these days, something the city has not seen in quite some time. How optimistic? The Bills have sold more than 54,200 season tickets, the most since 1991. The Bills are talking playoffs and they have a realistic shot despite playing in the ultra-powerful AFC and in the same division as the Patriots. It is likely a Wild Card spot that Buffalo will attain if it does make the postseason and a quick start is important. It is hoping for a better start after dropping its first three contests last year.

Seattle is always in the thick of the NFC West and that is due to the division being so weak. Not that I am saying the Seahawks are a bad team but I am saying that they are an aging team that comes into this season with a lot of questions and a lot of injuries to make matters worse. Top receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are both out while quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is still suffering from a bad back. The offensive line is aging while on the other side, the defensive line is a big concern yet again.

After that 0-3 start last season, the Bills pulled together and won seven out of 10, putting themselves in the playoff hunt despite a patchwork defensive lineup and an offense that scored just 20 touchdowns, the fewest in franchise history for a 16-game season. They folded down the stretch but never lost hope and found ways to stay in games as of the nine losses, four came by eight points or fewer including two by a single point. They showed enough to prove that they can be in the upper class of the conference.

The Bills were forced to place 17 players on the injured reserve list last season, which led the league. The return of starters Ko Simpson and Paul Posluszny should be a big boost to the defense. In an effort to shore up the heart of that defense, the Bills traded for former Jaguars defensive tackle Marcus Stroud and signed Spencer Johnson away from the Vikings. Linebacker Kawika Mitchell, fresh off a Super Bowl run with the Giants, strengthens an often undersized linebacker core.

Buffalo added wide receiver James Hardy to give Edwards an ideal red zone target, one that has been sorely lacking in past years. How effectively Edwards runs the offense of new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert will go a long way towards determining the Bills fortunes. Running back Marshawn Lynch had 1,115 rushing yards as a rookie last season and he will face a Seattle rushing defense that was solid for most of late season before faltering in the playoffs and playing dreadful this preseason.

Seattle is not a good traveling team and it falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the Seahawks, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Bills. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 13-52 ATS (20 percent) since 2000. Seattle is 9-17-1 ATS on the road over the last three years including a 3-9-1 ATS when playing two times zones away. Play Buffalo Bills 3 Units

**Conference Game of the Week Blowout** The Eagles were slow out of the gates last season as they dropped their first two games and really never recovered. They did not win back-to-back games until the second half of the season but did finish strong as they won their final three games to provide some great momentum heading into this year. The personal problems that plagued head coach Andy Reid are a thing of the past as are the injuries that slowed down quarterback Donovan McNabb. There is a new attitude and we will see it right out of the gate.

The Rams were a horrible 3-13 last season which was a five-game decrease from 2006. The franchise has not taken a complete tumble as this team will improve this season and should compete once again in the soft NFC West. Injuries played a big part in the demise of the Rams and the big three of Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger and Orlando Pace are healthy and ready to turn things around. The problem is the defense and especially in this matchup, it won